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| #1254503 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:33 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1032 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Low chances (20 to 30%) for showers will continue through the overnight and into Monday night as moisture lingers across the area. -A cold front will continue pressing southward through the Keys overnight. This will continue to promote freshening north to northeast breezes. Small Craft Advisories will be needed for most if not all, of our local waters by early Monday morning. -As high pressure builds over the region mid-week, mild, mostly dry conditions will be expected with gentle to moderate breezes. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 A much quieter late afternoon and evening when compared to just 24 hours ago. A cold front continues to slide down the Florida Peninsula. The front was currently analyzed to be over South Florida extending southwestward into the Southeastern Gulf. KBYX radar has remained active all afternoon and evening. A broken line of showers and even a thunderstorm were over the distant Straits during the mid to late afternoon which dissipated not long after sunrise. Additional showers affected portions of the Upper Keys with North Key Largo to Ocean Reef observing some measurable rainfall. Also, a broken line of showers in connection with the cold front continue to slide southward through the western coastal waters, though this activity continues to wane. A very light shower also moved through parts of Key West about an hour ago. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower 70s and dew points are near 70 degrees. Marine platforms surrounding the Island Chain are observing northwest to north breezes near 15 knots. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... The aforementioned cold front is expected to continue moving through the Florida Keys overnight. This will result in continued freshening north to northeast breezes. The 00z evening sounding continues to slowly dry out when compared to last evening. The PWAT value measured was 1.49 inches which is close to the 75th percentile for the date. The wind profile displays mainly northwest winds with 330 degrees around 1000 ft AGL and 315 degrees at 3000 ft AGL. This is indicative of slight cold air advection. GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products shows estimated PWATs of 1.1 to 1.3 inches moving steadily southeastward towards the Keys. Therefore, no changes expected to the ongoing forecast as some model guidance shows a few rain showers potentially affecting the Upper Keys toward daybreak. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 A Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect for the southeast Gulf waters overnight. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution (SCEC) for increasing winds is headlined for the Straits of Florida, Hawk Channel, Florida Bay, and the Bayside and Gulfside waters. In addition, A Small Craft Advisory likely will be required early Monday morning remains headlined for the Straits of Florida, Florida Bay, Hawk Channel, and the Bayside and Gulfside waters. From synopsis, a cold front currently draped across South Florida extends southwestward into the Gulf. The front will continue moving southward overnight leading to freshening north to northeast breezes. In the wake of the front, fresh to strong northeasterly breezes are expected through at least Tuesday. Breezes slacken starting Wednesday but will remain gentle to moderate at times. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF package. A cold front is currently draped across the central Florida Peninsula and extends southwestward through the Gulf. The front is expected to pass through the Keys over the next few hours. In its wake, expect increasing crosswinds out of the north with gusts to near 20 knots after midnight. Winds shift to the northeast by the afternoon with gusts increasing to near 25 knots. Latest guidance is also hinting at the potential for a period of MVFR CIGs Monday morning into the early afternoon. We kept MVFR CIGs out of the TAF for now due to the uncertainty and low to average confidence, though, we hint at this with a SCT deck around FL020. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 80 69 76 68 / 30 20 20 20 Marathon 77 68 75 68 / 20 20 30 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Monday for GMZ033-034. && $$ |
| #1254502 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:57 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 953 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 942 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 - A hard freeze is expected tonight across southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and northern Walton and Holmes Counties in Florida. A light to moderate freeze is expected elsewhere. Residents should protect people, pets, and plants across the area with pipe protection in the hard freeze area. - Wind chills in the teens to low 20s tonight into Monday morning will be hazardous to those without access to adequate warmth or protective clothing. Dress warmly in layers and check on those without access to heat. - There is a medium (40-70%) chance of another hard freeze Monday night across southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and inland parts of the Florida Panhandle. - Frequent gusts to gale force are expected over the western and southern waters through late tonight. Advisory level conditions are expected along the Forgotten and Nature Coasts. Mariners, especially those operating small craft, should remain in port or alter plans. && .UPDATE... Issued at 942 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 No major changes to tonight`s forecast were required. A very cold and dry airmass continues to plow into the Tri-State area behind a strong front with rapidly falling dew points and decreasing temperatures from NW to SE via robust cold-air advection. Freezing to near-freezing wind chills are already apparent in SE AL & SW GA. All active hazards remain in good shape in addition to the forecast lows tonight into tomorrow morning after looking at the latest MOS guidance. A coastal Wind Advisory was also considered along portions of the FL Panhandle, but observations do not support the issuance at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Monday Night) Issued at 120 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 A strong cold front is making its way through our area. As of 12 PM ET, temperatures range from the upper 40s in southeast Alabama to the mid 70s in the southeast Big Bend. Temperatures will fall for the remainder of the day as an arctic air mass filters in. Lows tonight will fall into the mid to upper 20s away from the coast and lower 30s along the beaches outside of the St. Joseph Peninsula and St. George Island. A few of our normally colder spots in the Wiregrass could dip into the lower 20s. The winds will still be elevated tonight around 10 mph, which will make it feel a good bit colder. Wind chills in the morning could be in the mid to upper teens for a good chunk of the area as you make your way to work or school. As far as hazards go for tonight, a Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for the entire area for wind chills that area hazardous to those without adequate warmth (16-25 in FL, 11-20 in AL & GA). A Freeze Warning is in effect for the threat of a hard freeze for our AL & GA counties as well as northern Walton and Holmes counties in FL. A Freeze Warning is also in effect for the Emerald Coast and coastal Franklin County for a freeze, since these areas have not had a widespread freeze yet this cold season. Monday will be a very cold day. Most areas won`t get out of the 40s except the southeast Big Bend. There will still be a breeze too, so it will feel like the upper 30s to mid 40s for a good portion of the day. For Monday night, high pressure moves over the southeast US, but may not be positioned the best for radiational cooling. Another wrinkle is the return of some moisture from the east. This may help bring in some clouds and warmer temperatures just above the surface. These may help limit just how cold we get, especially for the eastern Big Bend and Valdosta metro. At this point, did not make any changes to the Freeze Watch for Monday night regarding hard freeze potential given uncertainty. Expect lows in the mid 20s for much of southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the inland Florida Panhandle with upper 20s to mid 30s along the coast and into the FL Big Bend. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 120 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 This cold blast is relatively short lived with a quick shot at ridging on Tuesday. Highs return to the 50s and 60s with lows Tuesday night mostly in the mid 30s to lower 40s. A shortwave approaches the area Wednesday and lingers into Thursday before a stronger trough picks it up. This will help increase moisture again, bringing us a low-end chance for showers, mostly late Wednesday into Thursday. Currently not anticipating severe weather or heavy rainfall with this system. Otherwise, temperatures will returns to the 60s and 70s for highs and 40s and 50s for lows to round out the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 702 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 With the Tri-State area now fully post-frontal, skies have rapidly cleared, thus making for VFR conds. A brisk NW breeze will continue at all terminals tonight with a gradual decrease into tmrw morning. Thereafter, winds turn out of the NE at about 10 kts (ocnl gusts approaching 20 kts). A very dry airmass supports continued SKC for the remainder of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 942 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 A strong cold front swept through the marine area this afternoon with frequent northerly gale force gusts likely through late tonight over the western and southern waters. Advisory level conditions are expected along the Forgotten and Nature Coasts in Apalachee Bay. Seas will build to 5 to 8 feet with the increase in winds. Winds subside through the day Monday and especially into Monday night as high pressure moves to the north of the marine area. Gentle easterly winds will continue through Wednesday before breezes become moderate out of the southeast on Thursday ahead of the next approaching cold front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 120 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 The Gale Warnings effect for the western and southern waters remain in good shape. Offshore buoys have been reporting sustained winds around 25 kts with gusts very near gale force this evening. The Small Craft Advisory for the remainder of Apalachee Bay appears fine with the St George Island Bridge not terribly gusty at this time. CWF Synopsis: A strong cold front is moving through the area this afternoon with strong northwesterly winds in its wake. Significantly drier air moves in with min RH values in the upper teens to low 20s for much of the FL Panhandle into southeast AL and southwest GA. Northeasterly transport winds will start around 20 mph Monday morning, subsiding to 10 mph in the afternoon. Mixing heights will be low, which will keep dispersions in the fair to good range. Moisture begins to increase on Tuesday, but near critical RH is still possible across southeast Alabama and central GA. Winds will be light out of the east to southeast Tuesday, leading to low dispersions for much of the area. Fair dispersions are anticipated Wednesday with a slight increase in southeasterly transport winds up to 10 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 120 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Little to no rainfall is expected for the next 7 days, with ongoing severe and extreme drought conditions persisting. Most areas will see around a quarter of an inch from the next system late in the week with reasonable high-end totals of 0.75-1.00 inch. For more information on local impacts from drought, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 28 47 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 30 49 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 24 45 25 57 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 24 45 22 57 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 26 46 26 61 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 31 54 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 32 50 38 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114- 115-118-127-128-134-326-426. Freeze Warning from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ Monday for FLZ007-009-108-112-114-115. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for FLZ007-009>011-013. High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Monday for FLZ114. GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Monday for GAZ120>131- 142>148-155>161. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161. AL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for ALZ065>069. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Monday for ALZ065>069. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for ALZ065>069. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for GMZ730-755-765. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday for GMZ735. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Monday for GMZ751-752-770- 772-775. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ to 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ Monday for GMZ751-752-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1254501 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:18 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 804 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Arctic air moves in behind a cold front tonight, and provides a cold start to the week. The very cold temperatures do quickly give way to relatively milder temperatures for the middle to end of this week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 804 PM EST Sunday... - Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect for the entire area for bitterly cold temps tonight/Monday morning with wind chills in the single digits. - There is a slight chance for a few Bay effect snow showers on the Virginia Eastern Shore this evening-tonight. A strong upper trough extends down across the East Coast, with the associated surface front located well to our south. The strongest push of CAA is ongoing, with temperatures quickly falling across the forecast area. Temperatures have dropped into the teens to upper 20s across the forecast area, with wind chills in the single digits with mid to upper teens closer to the coast. Wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph are being measured across the area this evening (strongest at the coast). GOES Nighttime Microphysics is depicting mostly clear skies, with a few lingering clouds along the coast. Mostly clear skies will continue for the vast majority of the area tonight with lows in the mid teens for inland portions of the area and upper teens/around 20F at the coast. Wind chills will continue to drop over the next few hours, with single digits across the entire FA forecast. The Cold Weather Advisory issued remains unchanged since the initial issuance yesterday. Winds will decrease late tonight, so wind chills may actually increase as this occurs, though they will remain very cold. Lastly, still can`t rule out a few bay effect snow showers on the VA Eastern Shore between 7 PM-1 AM, which would only amount to a few tenths of an inch of accumulation in a high-end scenario. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 PM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Chilly and dry Monday and Monday night with a slow moderating trend beginning on Tuesday. Highs should reach the 50s by Wednesday. Strong Arctic high pressure behind the cold front builds into the area Monday as the upper trough moves well offshore. It will be pretty chilly on Monday with highs only in the mid 30s. The good news is that it will be mostly sunny and much less windy with the high overhead. The high shifts to our S or SE by Monday night, allowing the low-level flow to become light out of the south. Lows Monday night will be in the low to mid 20s for most, but some of the colder rural spots could see the upper teens. Temperatures start to moderate on Tuesday under mostly sunny skies. Forecast highs are in the upper 30s in the far NE and low to mid 40s elsewhere. Lows Tuesday night will be in the mid to upper 20s. The moderating trend continues on Wednesday (with dry wx expected) as the high shifts well offshore, upper heights rise, and the flow aloft becomes W-WSW. Highs on Wednesday will be in the lower-mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 PM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Much warmer temperatures (compared to the first half of December) continue on Thursday. - Another (weaker) cold front brings a good chance for showers Thursday night. Strong low pressure tracks well to our north Thursday night into Friday morning, which will drag another cold front through the area. Rather mild (especially considering how cold it has been) on Thursday with highs potentially reaching the lower-mid 60s over portions of the area. There is a good chance for showers along and ahead of the cold front Thursday evening into early Friday morning, and it looks like the area could see a widespread 0.25-0.5" of rain. In fact, the 12z global ensembles have high (80%+) probs of 0.1" and better than 50% probs for at least 0.25" of rain. Forecast highs on Fri are still in the 50s, but drop back off to around average by Saturday as high pressure returns. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 645 PM EST Sunday... VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Breezy conditions will continue through a majority of the night, with gusts as high as 30 kts likely this evening. By sunrise tomorrow, gusts will have generally decreased, though ORF and SBY could see continued gusts of 15-20 kts through the early afternoon. Otherwise, skies will continue to clear at all sites, with clear skies forecast tonight through tomorrow evening. VFR conditions will prevail from Monday through Wednesday. The next chance of sub-VFR conditions is Thursday night-Friday AM due to showers ahead of a cold front. && .MARINE... As of 200 PM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Gale Warnings are in effect for all waters through Monday morning due to the strong northwest winds. - Light freezing spray is also possible tonight due to the cold air temperatures and strong winds. - Generally lighter winds are expected later Monday through the first part of Thursday, though occasional SCA conditions are possible in the Chesapeake Bay. Winds rapidly increased across the local waters earlier this morning as a cold front moved through. As of this afternoon, winds remain elevated to 25-35 kt with gusts up to around 40 kt. Given the NNW wind direction, wind speeds are highest on the eastern shore of the Chesapeake Bay and over the ocean. Regardless, water conditions are chaotic and rough areawide and boaters should utilize extreme caution and/or consider rescheduling travel. Later this evening, a very strong push of cold air advection (with 850 mb temps as low as -20 C) overspreads the waters, with peak winds expected during this timeframe (roughly from 22z/5 PM today through 06z/1 AM Mon morning). The current forecast shows peak winds of 30-35 kt (locally higher for the coastal waters S of Cape Charles), with wind gusts up to 45 kt. Some model guidance also suggests intermittent wind gusts to low-end storm force (45-50 kt) for a brief period after 00z/7 PM. Gale Warnings are in effect for all marine zones through early Monday morning, though winds will begin trending down as we approach daybreak. Lastly, light freezing spray is possible tonight as strong winds coincide with very cold air temperatures overspreading the area. However, water temperatures in the 40s to around 50 F should preclude moderate or heavy freezing spray. Elevated NNW/NW winds continue through the rest of Monday morning and SCAs will be needed once the Gale headlines drop off. High pressure then quickly advances in by the later afternoon and evening hours of Monday and winds should become sub-SCA by this time. As winds shift to the SW late Monday night, a brief uptick in wind speeds (from a transient low-level jet) could necessitate marginal SCA headlines in the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River. With higher criteria on the ocean, SCAs seem quite unlikely at this time. Beyond Monday night, much lighter winds make a return for Tuesday, followed by another increase in SW winds Tuesday night and Wednesday. Another strong cold front is forecast to approach the region Thursday, crossing the waters early Friday. SCAs are likely in both the pre-frontal SW wind and post-fostal NW wind regimes Thursday night/Friday, with Gales possible in the northern coastal waters. Seas continue increasing into tonight, peaking at 6-10 ft (highest offshore and S of Cape Charles). Waves up to 5-6 ft are likely in the Chesapeake Bay, with 3-5 ft waves in the lower James River and 2- 3 ft waves in the upper rivers and Currituck Sound. Seas should subside below 5 ft by later Monday given the decreasing (and offshore) wind direction. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for MDZ021>025. NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for NCZ102. VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for VAZ048-060>062- 064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525. Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for VAZ098>100. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ630>638-650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ |
| #1254500 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 733 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 633 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 - A Wind ADVISORY is in effect tonight along the coast where wind gusts of 25-35 mph are expected behind a cold front. Remaining windy at times into at least early Monday afternoon. Holiday decorations should be properly secured! - High surf and numerous rip currents rapidly developing from north to south at all Atlantic beaches tonight. Nearshore seas and surf from 7 to 10 feet. Boating conditions quickly worsen, becoming hazardous to dangerous through Monday. - Wind chills briefly reach the upper 30s over northwestern Lake and Volusia Counties late tonight. Elsewhere, turning cooler... but impactful cold is not expected with this front. && .UPDATE... (for Tonight) Issued at 733 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 As expected, a strong (but quickly-modifying) Arctic cold front is just now entering Volusia County. Hi-res guidance sweeps the front southward, exiting Martin County by around midnight. Immediately behind it, winds increase with gusts to 20-30 mph common over NE FL. A few gusts to 35 mph have been observed. This trend should continue as it moves over our area. At 2,500 FT, HREF members suggest that winds will be in the 30-40 MPH range for a few hours behind the front. Thus, the current forecast of Wind Advisory conditions along our coast is in good shape. Loose objects like holiday decorations and trash cans should be secured. Beach conditions quickly become dangerous tonight with surf building to to 7-10 FT north of Cape Canaveral, and 4-8 FT to the south. Numerous rip currents are also expected. Please remain out of the surf through Monday. The parent shortwave responsible for this front is moving eastward over the Mid-Atlantic states. With the H5 jet axis more than 500 miles north of Central FL, the trailing 1040 hPa surface high is slated to also pass well to our north. This will cause winds to rapidly veer northeasterly over the next 12-18 hours. Therefore, parcels will spend some time over the Atlantic before reaching us, effectively cutting off the core of the Arctic air mass immediately north of Central Florida. Folks northwest of Orlando (portions of Lake and interior Volusia Cos) will experience wind chills from 37-45 deg F on Monday morning. Otherwise, most of us will wake up to 50s (even 60s on the Treasure Coast). No question, however: it`ll feel chilly tomorrow due to the breezy conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Rest of Today-Monday... The upper level low pressure over the Great Plains will move into the Great Lakes region today before deepening and moving eastward towards Maine through Monday. At the surface, a strong high pressure centered over the Midwest will shift southward into the Deep South on Monday with the axis building over the Florida peninsula. The frontal boundary across South Florida will lift northward as a warm front today, increasing the moisture across the southern portions of the CWA. Forecast PW values will range from 1.0-1.1" across the north to 1.2-1.5" across the south. This will result in an increase in cloud cover as well as a return of rain chances across the local area. There is a low to medium (20- 60 percent) chance of rain from southern Brevard/Osceola southward today, with the greatest potential for rain occurring across the Treasure Coast and around Lake Okeechobee into early afternoon. There remains a low (20 percent) chance of lightning storms mainly across the Treasure Coast and southern Okeechobee county today. Rain chances push offshore late afternoon and overnight, remaining mostly dry over land areas on Monday. The next cold front will push across east central Florida this evening into tonight. This will be a dry frontal passage, with no mentionable rain chances through Monday. However, winds will increase across the local area tonight into Monday as the axis of the strong high pressure builds over the Florida peninsula, tightening the pressure gradient and resulting in a period of windy conditions (especially along the coast). North to northwest winds at 5-10 mph today will increase to 15-25 mph across the interior and 20- 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph possible along the coast tonight into Monday with winds shifting north to northeast on Monday. A Wind Advisory has been issued along the coast starting at 7pm tonight. The high pressure will steadily weaken on Monday, which will allow the pressure gradient to loosen somewhat over the local area. This will result in the north to northeast winds decreasing, however, they will remain breezy/gusty especially along the coast. These strong winds will also result in rough, pounding surf and minor beach erosion tonight into Monday. Breaking waves of 7-9 FT are forecast, briefly up to 10 FT along the Volusia coast. Thus, a High Surf Advisory has also been issued. The high tide of most concern will be early Monday between 4am-5am. A High risk of rip currents goes into effect later this afternoon from Cape Canaveral northward, spreading to all the coast Monday. Temperatures will be above normal today before becoming noticeably cooler behind the front on Monday. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s today before dropping to low to mid 60s across the north and upper 60s to low 70s across the south on Monday. Overnight lows will range from mid to upper 40s across the far north to low 60s across the far south tonight, and range from low to mid 40s across the far north and near 60 degrees across the far south on Monday night. Tuesday-Thursday... A weakening high pressure across the Deep South will move into GA early on Tuesday before gradually shifting eastward, moving offshore into the Atlantic ocean by Thursday. The trailing axis will remain over the Florida Peninsula through the time period. This will result in north to northeast winds turning easterly on Tuesday at 5-10 mph as the high settles into the Deep South before eventually veering east to southeast Wednesday evening and continuing through Thursday as the high moves offshore. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through Wednesday, with no mentionable rain chances over land areas through that time. Isolated to scattered showers will continue to be possible over the Atlantic waters however. Rain chances return to land areas on Thursday, with isolated showers forecast along the immediate coast of the Treasure Coast. Temperatures will be on a slight warming trend into late week, going from seasonable/slightly below normal to above normal by Thursday. Afternoon highs will generally be in the low 70s on Tuesday, mid 70s on Wednesday, and upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s Tuesday night, mid to upper 50s on Wednesday night, and upper 50s to low 60s on Thursday night. Friday-Saturday...An upper level trough will push into the eastern US on Friday and out into the Atlantic on Saturday. The next cold front is forecast to approach Friday, first dropping into north Florida before reaching the far northern part of the CWA Friday night/early Saturday morning, then pushing through the rest of the CWA throughout the day on Saturday. North to northwest winds at 5-10 mph on Friday will veer northeast to east on Saturday behind the front. The frontal passage Friday night through Saturday looks to be mostly dry, with no mentionable rain chances over land areas. Isolated showers will be possible ahead of the front on Friday, with a low (20 percent) chance of showers occurring along the immediate coast of the Treasure Coast. Temperatures will not change much behind the front, with afternoon highs forecast to be in the upper 70s to low 80s on both Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s on and Friday night, and range from upper 50s to low 60s across the north to low to mid 60s across the south. && .MARINE... Issued at 229 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Today-Thursday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Conditions will begin to deteriorate this afternoon and especially this evening/overnight as strong high pressure builds over the area behind a cold front, tightening the pressure gradient over the local area. North winds increase 20-25 knots by sunset across the northern (Volusia) waters will overspread the remainder of our coastal waters this evening with rapidly building seas especially in the Gulf Stream. A Gale Warning has been posted for the Volusia Atlantic waters for frequent gusts to gale force (34 knots) while solid Small Craft Advisory conditions will exist elsewhere with occasional gusts to gale force possible. Seas will build rapidly to 13 FT in the Gulf Stream tonight into Monday with 7-10 FT nearshore. The high pressure will weaken as it settles into the SE US Monday so wind speeds will drop below 20 knots Mon aftn but seas will be slower to subside given the NE wind component. The high will push seaward through mid week and winds will veer east then southeast in response and the pressure gradient supporting 10-14 knots. It will take a little while for seas to subside below 7 FT in the Gulf Stream so have extended the SCA there slightly. But once we lose the north wind component, seas will subside below 6 FT Tuesday night and below 5 FT Wednesday. Seas nearshore will be 3 FT Wednesday- Thursday as winds develop a SE component. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 633 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Only minor adjustments to ongoing TAFs. First was the timing of the cold front / wind surge, which is coming in slightly later this evening from north to south. Second, and of lesser confidence, is CIGs late tonight and into Monday as marine stratocumulus develops and moves ashore. Model soundings suggest bases should be AOA FL030, so flirting with MVFR at a few sites in the morning before lifting into VFR as the boundary layer deepens by afternoon. Peak north to north-northeast wind gusts 22-28 KT for inland/Orlando area terminals tonight, including at MCO. Coastal terminals have a 10-20% chance of peak wind gusts of 30+ KT, particularly at DAB before midnight and along the Treasure Coast after midnight through sunrise. Winds veer solidly NE with gusts slowly subsiding Monday afternoon/evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 50 62 50 69 / 0 10 10 0 MCO 53 64 50 71 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 56 67 55 71 / 10 10 10 0 VRB 59 69 55 73 / 20 10 10 10 LEE 45 62 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 50 63 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 50 63 49 71 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 59 69 55 73 / 20 10 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Wind Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ141-347-447. High Surf Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ141-154- 159-164-347-447-647-747. Wind Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ154-159-164-647-747. AM...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ550-570. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ552. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ555-575. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ572. && $$ |
| #1254499 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:27 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 710 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 702 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 - A hard freeze is expected tonight across southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and northern Walton and Holmes Counties in Florida. A light to moderate freeze is expected elsewhere. Residents should protect people, pets, and plants across the area with pipe protection in the hard freeze area. - Wind chills in the teens to low 20s tonight into Monday morning will be hazardous to those without access to adequate warmth or protective clothing. Dress warmly in layers and check on those without access to heat. - There is a medium (40-70%) chance of another hard freeze Monday night across southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and inland parts of the Florida Panhandle. - Frequent gusts to gale force are expected over the western and southern waters through late tonight. Advisory level conditions are expected along the Forgotten and Nature Coasts. Mariners, especially those operating small craft, should remain in port or alter plans. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Monday Night) Issued at 120 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 A strong cold front is making its way through our area. As of 12 PM ET, temperatures range from the upper 40s in southeast Alabama to the mid 70s in the southeast Big Bend. Temperatures will fall for the remainder of the day as an arctic air mass filters in. Lows tonight will fall into the mid to upper 20s away from the coast and lower 30s along the beaches outside of the St. Joseph Peninsula and St. George Island. A few of our normally colder spots in the Wiregrass could dip into the lower 20s. The winds will still be elevated tonight around 10 mph, which will make it feel a good bit colder. Wind chills in the morning could be in the mid to upper teens for a good chunk of the area as you make your way to work or school. As far as hazards go for tonight, a Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for the entire area for wind chills that area hazardous to those without adequate warmth (16-25 in FL, 11-20 in AL & GA). A Freeze Warning is in effect for the threat of a hard freeze for our AL & GA counties as well as northern Walton and Holmes counties in FL. A Freeze Warning is also in effect for the Emerald Coast and coastal Franklin County for a freeze, since these areas have not had a widespread freeze yet this cold season. Monday will be a very cold day. Most areas won`t get out of the 40s except the southeast Big Bend. There will still be a breeze too, so it will feel like the upper 30s to mid 40s for a good portion of the day. For Monday night, high pressure moves over the southeast US, but may not be positioned the best for radiational cooling. Another wrinkle is the return of some moisture from the east. This may help bring in some clouds and warmer temperatures just above the surface. These may help limit just how cold we get, especially for the eastern Big Bend and Valdosta metro. At this point, did not make any changes to the Freeze Watch for Monday night regarding hard freeze potential given uncertainty. Expect lows in the mid 20s for much of southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the inland Florida Panhandle with upper 20s to mid 30s along the coast and into the FL Big Bend. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 120 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 This cold blast is relatively short lived with a quick shot at ridging on Tuesday. Highs return to the 50s and 60s with lows Tuesday night mostly in the mid 30s to lower 40s. A shortwave approaches the area Wednesday and lingers into Thursday before a stronger trough picks it up. This will help increase moisture again, bringing us a low-end chance for showers, mostly late Wednesday into Thursday. Currently not anticipating severe weather or heavy rainfall with this system. Otherwise, temperatures will returns to the 60s and 70s for highs and 40s and 50s for lows to round out the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 702 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 With the Tri-State area now fully post-frontal, skies have rapidly cleared, thus making for VFR conds. A brisk NW breeze will continue at all terminals tonight with a gradual decrease into tmrw morning. Thereafter, winds turn out of the NE at about 10 kts (ocnl gusts approaching 20 kts). A very dry airmass supports continued SKC for the remainder of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 120 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 A strong cold front is moving through the marine area this afternoon with frequent northerly gale force gusts likely through late tonight over the western and southern waters. Advisory level conditions are expected along the Forgotten and Nature Coasts in Apalachee Bay. Seas will build to 5 to 8 feet with the increase in winds. Winds subside through the day Monday and especially into Monday night as high pressure moves to the north of the marine area. Gentle easterly winds will continue through Wednesday before breezes become moderate out of the southeast on Thursday ahead of the next approaching cold front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 120 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 A strong cold front is moving through the area this afternoon with strong northwesterly winds in its wake. Significantly drier air moves in with min RH values in the upper teens to low 20s for much of the FL Panhandle into southeast AL and southwest GA. Northeasterly transport winds will start around 20 mph Monday morning, subsiding to 10 mph in the afternoon. Mixing heights will be low, which will keep dispersions in the fair to good range. Moisture begins to increase on Tuesday, but near critical RH is still possible across southeast Alabama and central GA. Winds will be light out of the east to southeast Tuesday, leading to low dispersions for much of the area. Fair dispersions are anticipated Wednesday with a slight increase in southeasterly transport winds up to 10 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 120 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Little to no rainfall is expected for the next 7 days, with ongoing severe and extreme drought conditions persisting. Most areas will see around a quarter of an inch from the next system late in the week with reasonable high-end totals of 0.75-1.00 inch. For more information on local impacts from drought, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 28 47 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 30 49 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 24 45 25 57 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 24 45 22 57 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 26 46 26 61 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 31 54 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 32 50 38 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114- 115-118-127-128-134-326-426. Freeze Warning from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ Monday for FLZ007-009-108-112-114-115. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for FLZ007-009>011-013. High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Monday for FLZ114. GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Monday for GAZ120>131- 142>148-155>161. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161. AL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for ALZ065>069. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Monday for ALZ065>069. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for ALZ065>069. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for GMZ730-755-765. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday for GMZ735. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Monday for GMZ751-752-770- 772-775. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ to 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ Monday for GMZ751-752-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1254498 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 703 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front will move through this evening, bringing cooler and drier conditions for the start of the work week. - Hazardous marine conditions expected tonight and Monday. && .FOR THE EVENING UPDATE... Issued at 645 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 A cold front currently over north central Florida will push across the Florida peninsula tonight. Gusty north to northwest winds will advect much colder drier air over west central and southwest Florida in the wake of the front tonight and Monday. Considerable cloudiness will develop late tonight which will persist into Monday across central and southern areas...while skies are expected to clear across the northern nature coast. This will allow temps across the northern forecast area to drop into the mid 30s tonight, with a few spots mainly in northern Levy county possibly touching 32 degrees for a very brief time around sunrise. Although abundant sunshine is likely over the northern nature coast on Monday, high temperatures will only climb into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Considerable cloudiness is expected central and south and combined with the breezy conditions will make it feel even cooler...with high temperatures in the 60s central and the lower 70s south. The breezy conditions over the coastal waters will create a high risk of rip currents along area beaches on Monday along with hazardous boating conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 118 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Broad troughing remains across the eastern part of the country this afternoon while a surface frontal boundary approaches north Florida. This boundary will cross over the region later today, with gusty north to northeast winds taking hold as strong high pressure builds over the southeast. This will usher a cooler and drier air mass over the state, with low temperatures on Monday nearing freezing for parts of Levy County and 40s and 50s elsewhere. Additionally, the gusty winds will remain tonight, so wind chill values will be several degrees lower. The rest of the day will be pleasant but cool, with highs topping out in the upper 50s north to lower 70s south. High pressure will quickly shift eastward, allowing winds to turn more easterly and bringing a warming trend through most of next week. Rain chances remain low overall, with the next chance coming next Friday into Saturday as another frontal boundary moves over the region. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 VFR conditions at all airports this evening. Gusty north to northwest winds will develop at all terminals overnight...becoming northeast on Monday. Mostly clear skies will persist until shortly after midnight. Areas of VFR CIGs around 035 will develop at TPA/PIE/LAL/SRQ late tonight...which will spread across southern terminals around sunrise to early Monday morning. LCL MVFR CIGs 020-030 will also be possible, mainly during the morning hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 118 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Small Craft Advisories are in effect starting this afternoon/evening and continuing through midday Monday as winds increase out of the north to northeast following a cold front. Conditions will start to improve Monday afternoon and no other headlines are expected Tuesday through the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 118 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 A cold front will move through the region later today and tonight, bringing cooler and drier air over the region for the next couple of days. Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels, however, so there are no Red Flag concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 51 67 50 73 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 56 73 55 77 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 51 66 48 73 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 52 70 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 41 63 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 54 67 55 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
| #1254497 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:03 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 659 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An arctic cold front will sweep through today with bitter cold conditions tonight into Tuesday. Dry high pressure remains in control through Thursday before the next cold front impacts the area Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... The arctic high pressure will continue to build across the region tonight, setting up a bitterly cold overnight. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the low 20s across the region, which combined with the gusty winds, will yield wind chill values in the teens. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect from 10 PM this evening into Monday morning. There is a low end chance (~20%) that some locations in the Charleston Tri-County area could see a brief moment or two of single digit wind chills in the early morning hours. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Overview: Bitter cold temperatures continue through Tuesday morning, then begin to moderate by mid week. Monday: Deep, cold high pressure will be centered over the region. Even with full sun, highs not expected to make it much past 40, which are near record low max values for the date! Luckily, winds will be light as high pressure builds directly overhead, reducing any wind chill effects. The surface ridge axis remains directly overhead through Monday evening and overnight night, shifting a bit further east closer to daybreak. Given nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions and dew points in the lower teens to upper single digits, low temperatures into the teens away from the beaches, on the lower end of the guidance envelope, are reasonable. This would necessitate another Cold Weather Advisory for much of SE SC and SE GA inland of the Hwy 17 Corridor. Tuesday and Wednesday: The surface ridge continues to move eastward into the Atlantic with zonal mid and upper level flow. This pattern is expected to allow a moderation in temperatures, reaching to near to slightly above normal by Wednesday. No precipitation is expected during this period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The general zonal upper level pattern is shown by models to briefly be interrupted by a fast moving upper level trough axis and associated weak cold front Thursday. The most likely scenario with this front remains that frontolisis and waning moisture will lead to limited rainfall, with strong ensemble agreement that rainfall amounts will remain less than an inch across the area. Friday through Sunday: the upper flow reverts back to generally zonal, with temperatures above normal, in the 60s to near 70. Models diverge again with the potential for another front and threat for precipitation to approach the area possibly by late in the period on Sunday. Confidence with whether or not this front will have any impact in our area is very low at this time. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 00Z TAFs: VFR. High pressure building into the region will cause gusty NNW winds, which should veer to the NNE after midnight. The gusty winds will ease before daybreak Monday. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions prevail for KCHS, KJZI and KSAV through mid-week. && .MARINE... Tonight: A strong cold front is moving south through the waters this evening, causing gusty N winds behind the front. As high pressure builds into the region overnight, winds are forecast to surge, with gusts reaching as high as 35 knots outside of the Charleston Harbor. A Gale Warning is now in effect for all offshore waters through Monday morning. The Charleston Harbor will see gusts around 25 knots and has a Small Craft Advisory in effect through Monday morning. Monday through Thursday: Elevated seas at sunrise Monday morning will quickly subside through the day as high pressure passes overhead. Ridging at the surface will remain just east of the waters through at least Wednesday keeping benign marine conditions in place. A coastal trough may develop over the nearshore waters on Thursday as a cold front approaches from the west. Winds likely to increase from the south on Thursday, but still expected to remain below highlight levels. && .CLIMATE... Record Low Temperatures: December 15: KCHS: 15/1962 KCXM: 23/1943 KSAV: 19/1962 Record Low Maximum Temperatures: December 15: KCHS: 39/1943 KCXM: 38/1904 KSAV: 38/1904 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141. SC...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for SCZ040-042>045-047>052. Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for SCZ045. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for AMZ330. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ350-352-354-374. && $$ |
| #1254496 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:03 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 600 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 542 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 * Hazardous marine and coastal conditions persist through Monday in response to a cold front. * Gusty winds and near to below average temperatures today and Monday. * Warmer than normal temperatures and mainly rain-free weather will prevail through next week, with a chance of showers Tuesday/Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1216 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 A cold front has worked its way across Deep South Texas this morning, leaving cooler temperatures, gusty winds, showers, and coastal hazards in its wake. Showers against the front are currently moving past the Rio Grande River, and will continue to move south of the region through the afternoon. Dry air behind the front will keep rain chances low for late Sunday afternoon onwards, but an isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out. Gusty northerly winds from 15-25 mph gusting 20 to around 40 mph will continue through the afternoon, beginning to lessen overnight. Stronger, gustier winds will be nearer the coast. Coastal hazards behind the cold front include a Coastal Flood Statement, in effect from 12 PM Sunday to midnight, a High Surf Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 6 AM Monday, and a High Risk of Rip Currents through 6 PM Monday. Despite astronomically low tides and a waning crescent moon, strong northerly winds behind the front will build seas and may cause narrow beaches and runup. Temporary relief in temperatures following cold fropa, with near to just below average temps through Monday. High temperatures were reached this morning as cold air advection begins to drain cooler air into the CWA, dropping temperatures through the overnight. Monday morning low temperatures in the 40s, 50s along the immediate coast and RGV. Mostly cloudy skies Monday morning begin to break up through the afternoon, with high temperatures in the 60s. Dry air behind the front will keep rain chances low (20% or less) through Tuesday, when southeasterly flow returns moisture into the atmosphere. An approaching disturbance midweek will elevate rain chances Tuesday night through Wednesday - moderate along the coast and low inland. In the latter half of the week, a zonal synoptic setup is expected to dominate, leaving benign weather and a chance for warm temperatures to rise to above average. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 505 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 MVFR ceilings this evening are currently ranging from around 1,200 ft at KBRO, 1,300 ft at KHRL and 1,500 ft at KMFE along with northerly winds of 15-20 knots, gusting to 25-30 knots. These conditions are likely to prevail through at least 06Z tonight, though ceilings may briefly drop to IFR at KBRO, perhaps at KHRL as well. Winds steadily improve overnight to around 10-15 knots by sunrise tomorrow, further winding down and remaining out of the north throughout the daytime as MVFR ceilings gradually rise, possibly becoming scattered in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 542 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Over the past few hours, observations from buoys near and over the Gulf Waters have indicated that northerly winds are no longer sustaining or gusting to/exceeding 34 knots. Therefore, have dropped the Gale Warnings over the Gulf Waters (0-60 nm). A Small Craft Advisory continues in its place across all of the Lower Texas Coastal Waters until 12 Z (6 AM) Monday morning as strong northeasterly winds of 20-25 knots, gusting to 30 knots, continue overnight tonight. Further improvement in winds and seas are expected throughout tomorrow and tomorrow night as moderate to fresh northerly winds diminish to gentle to moderate southeasterly winds by Tuesday morning along with moderate (3-5 ft) seas continuing through Thursday. Chances of rain increase from a low (15-20%) chance Tuesday afternoon to a medium to likely (50-70%) chance on Wednesday before dropping to a low (less than 10%) chance by Thursday morning. Winds may briefly shift out of the east- northeast Thursday night into Friday as a weak front approaches or passes through before returning out of the southeast over this upcoming weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 50 66 56 76 / 20 10 0 20 HARLINGEN 47 64 52 75 / 10 0 0 10 MCALLEN 50 65 55 73 / 20 0 0 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 47 64 51 71 / 10 0 0 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 59 65 61 73 / 30 10 0 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 51 65 55 76 / 20 0 0 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for TXZ451-454- 455. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175. && $$ |
| #1254495 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:51 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 538 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 536 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 - Near to below normal temperatures in the wake of our next cold front Sunday through Tuesday - Low chances (20-40%) for showers today with the frontal passage - Gale Warning for Sunday and Sunday night across the Gulf waters && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1237 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 The cold front has cleared the coast and left breezy cooler conditions in its wake. There are some lingering showers in some spots though activity should continue to wane through the remainder of the afternoon. As the temperatures continue to drop tonight behind the front, lows are expected to get down into the 30s from the Victoria Crossroads extending to portions of the Brush Country. Much of the Victoria Crossroads will be around freezing at 33 degrees. The possibility for temperatures to dip slightly below freezing does exist though confidence at this time remains low to medium (20-45%). Will continue to monitor this possibility and may need to issue a short-fused freeze warning if confidence increases this evening. Highs tomorrow will likely hover in the upper 50s across the region with the western portions of the CWA potentially reaching 60 degrees. Looking forward to later in the week, an inverted trough will creep into the Brush Country from the south leading to showers and thunderstorms in Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. This will also be coupled with sufficient isentropic at the 295-300K levels should lead to some efficient rainfall. Otherwise, the forecast should remain quiet with a gradual warming trend following today`s front. Highs will return to the 80s by Thursday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 536 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF cycle. Strong winds with ceilings around 3500 to 4000 feet are expected through 06z before ceilings scatter out and winds begin to relax. && .MARINE... Issued at 1237 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Near Gale to Gale (BF 7-8) northeast winds will persist across the Gulf waters through Sunday night. As we head into Monday morning, winds will quickly relax to moderate levels (BF 4) and shift to the southeast by Monday night which will then hang around for the rest of the week. Medium (30-60%) chances for rain can be expected today with rain chances quickly tapering off this evening. Our next chance for rain will return Tuesday night into Wednesday with a medium to high (50-75%) chance for showers and thunderstorms across the Gulf waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1237 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Despite today`s cold front, relative humidity levels are expected to remain above 30% with relatively light to moderate winds, except for Sunday, where winds can gust to 25-30 mph. However, due to the relative humidity remaining above critical levels, elevated fire weather conditions will not expected through early this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 40 57 48 70 / 0 0 0 10 Victoria 33 57 41 68 / 0 0 0 10 Laredo 44 60 51 65 / 10 0 0 20 Alice 38 59 46 68 / 0 0 0 20 Rockport 42 59 50 69 / 0 0 0 10 Cotulla 41 58 48 63 / 0 0 0 20 Kingsville 39 59 47 70 / 0 0 0 20 Navy Corpus 47 59 53 70 / 0 0 0 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday for GMZ231-232-236- 237. Gale Warning until 3 AM CST Monday for GMZ250-255-270-275. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ250-255- 270-275. && $$ |
| #1254494 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:51 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 644 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Arctic air moves in behind a cold front this evening into tonight, and provides a cold start to the week. The very cold temperatures do quickly give way to relatively milder temperatures for the middle to end of this week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 200 PM EST Sunday... - Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect for the entire area for bitterly cold temps tonight/Monday morning with wind chills in the single digits. - There is a slight chance for a few bay effect snow showers on the Virginia Eastern Shore this evening-tonight. A strong upper trough continues to amplify over the eastern CONUS with an Arctic front now well to our south (though the strongest CAA arrives this evening). The snow has ended, with totals of 1 to locally 2 inches from Caroline County, VA to the Lower MD Eastern Shore, with only a few tenths of an inch in the RIC Metro as the initial push of cold air this morning was not as strong as a lot of the models showed. Temperatures are only in the lower-mid 30s, with upper 20s at Cambridge/Salisbury. NW winds are gusting to 30-40 mph at this hour. The strongest push of CAA arrives this evening, with much colder and drier air filtering in tonight. Winds will peak during the evening, with gusts of 30-45 mph (locally 45-50 mph on the VA Eastern Shore and in VA Beach/Eastern Currituck where Wind Advisories remain in effect). Mostly clear for the vast majority of the area tonight with lows in the mid teens for inland portions of the area and upper teens/around 20F at the coast. Wind Chills will be in the single digits across the entire FA. The Cold Weather Advisory issued remains unchanged since the initial issuance yesterday. Lastly, still can`t rule out a few bay effect snow showers on the VA Eastern Shore between 7 PM-1 AM, which would only amount to a few tenths of an inch of accumulation in a high-end scenario. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 PM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Chilly and dry Monday and Monday night with a slow moderating trend beginning on Tuesday. Highs should reach the 50s by Wednesday. Strong Arctic high pressure behind the cold front builds into the area Monday as the upper trough moves well offshore. It will be pretty chilly on Monday with highs only in the mid 30s. The good news is that it will be mostly sunny and much less windy with the high overhead. The high shifts to our S or SE by Monday night, allowing the low-level flow to become light out of the south. Lows Monday night will be in the low to mid 20s for most, but some of the colder rural spots could see the upper teens. Temperatures start to moderate on Tuesday under mostly sunny skies. Forecast highs are in the upper 30s in the far NE and low to mid 40s elsewhere. Lows Tuesday night will be in the mid to upper 20s. The moderating trend continues on Wednesday (with dry wx expected) as the high shifts well offshore, upper heights rise, and the flow aloft becomes W-WSW. Highs on Wednesday will be in the lower-mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 PM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Much warmer temperatures (compared to the first half of December) continue on Thursday. - Another (weaker) cold front brings a good chance for showers Thursday night. Strong low pressure tracks well to our north Thursday night into Friday morning, which will drag another cold front through the area. Rather mild (especially considering how cold it has been) on Thursday with highs potentially reaching the lower-mid 60s over portions of the area. There is a good chance for showers along and ahead of the cold front Thursday evening into early Friday morning, and it looks like the area could see a widespread 0.25-0.5" of rain. In fact, the 12z global ensembles have high (80%+) probs of 0.1" and better than 50% probs for at least 0.25" of rain. Forecast highs on Fri are still in the 50s, but drop back off to around average by Saturday as high pressure returns. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 645 PM EST Sunday... VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Breezy conditions will continue through a majority of the night, with gusts as high as 30 kts likely this evening. By sunrise tomorrow, gusts will have generally decreased, though ORF and SBY could see continued gusts of 15-20 kts through the early afternoon. Otherwise, skies will continue to clear at all sites, with clear skies forecast tonight through tomorrow evening. VFR conditions will prevail from Monday through Wednesday. The next chance of sub-VFR conditions is Thursday night-Friday AM due to showers ahead of a cold front. && .MARINE... As of 200 PM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Gale Warnings are in effect for all waters through Monday morning due to the strong northwest winds. - Light freezing spray is also possible tonight due to the cold air temperatures and strong winds. - Generally lighter winds are expected later Monday through the first part of Thursday, though occasional SCA conditions are possible in the Chesapeake Bay. Winds rapidly increased across the local waters earlier this morning as a cold front moved through. As of this afternoon, winds remain elevated to 25-35 kt with gusts up to around 40 kt. Given the NNW wind direction, wind speeds are highest on the eastern shore of the Chesapeake Bay and over the ocean. Regardless, water conditions are chaotic and rough areawide and boaters should utilize extreme caution and/or consider rescheduling travel. Later this evening, a very strong push of cold air advection (with 850 mb temps as low as -20 C) overspreads the waters, with peak winds expected during this timeframe (roughly from 22z/5 PM today through 06z/1 AM Mon morning). The current forecast shows peak winds of 30-35 kt (locally higher for the coastal waters S of Cape Charles), with wind gusts up to 45 kt. Some model guidance also suggests intermittent wind gusts to low-end storm force (45-50 kt) for a brief period after 00z/7 PM. Gale Warnings are in effect for all marine zones through early Monday morning, though winds will begin trending down as we approach daybreak. Lastly, light freezing spray is possible tonight as strong winds coincide with very cold air temperatures overspreading the area. However, water temperatures in the 40s to around 50 F should preclude moderate or heavy freezing spray. Elevated NNW/NW winds continue through the rest of Monday morning and SCAs will be needed once the Gale headlines drop off. High pressure then quickly advances in by the later afternoon and evening hours of Monday and winds should become sub-SCA by this time. As winds shift to the SW late Monday night, a brief uptick in wind speeds (from a transient low-level jet) could necessitate marginal SCA headlines in the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River. With higher criteria on the ocean, SCAs seem quite unlikely at this time. Beyond Monday night, much lighter winds make a return for Tuesday, followed by another increase in SW winds Tuesday night and Wednesday. Another strong cold front is forecast to approach the region Thursday, crossing the waters early Friday. SCAs are likely in both the pre-frontal SW wind and post-fostal NW wind regimes Thursday night/Friday, with Gales possible in the northern coastal waters. Seas continue increasing into tonight, peaking at 6-10 ft (highest offshore and S of Cape Charles). Waves up to 5-6 ft are likely in the Chesapeake Bay, with 3-5 ft waves in the lower James River and 2- 3 ft waves in the upper rivers and Currituck Sound. Seas should subside below 5 ft by later Monday given the decreasing (and offshore) wind direction. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for MDZ021>025. NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for NCZ102. VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for VAZ048-060>062- 064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525. Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for VAZ098>100. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ630>638-650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ |
| #1254493 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Melbourne FL 635 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 633 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 - A Wind ADVISORY is in effect tonight along the coast where wind gusts of 25-35 mph are expected behind a cold front. Remaining windy at times into at least early Monday afternoon. - High surf and numerous rip currents rapidly developing from north to south at all Atlantic beaches tonight. Nearshore seas and surf from 7 to 10 feet. Boating conditions quickly worsen, becoming hazardous to dangerous through Monday. - Wind chills briefly reach the upper 30s over northwestern Lake and Volusia Counties late tonight. Elsewhere, turning cooler... but impactful cold is not expected with this front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Rest of Today-Monday... The upper level low pressure over the Great Plains will move into the Great Lakes region today before deepening and moving eastward towards Maine through Monday. At the surface, a strong high pressure centered over the Midwest will shift southward into the Deep South on Monday with the axis building over the Florida peninsula. The frontal boundary across South Florida will lift northward as a warm front today, increasing the moisture across the southern portions of the CWA. Forecast PW values will range from 1.0-1.1" across the north to 1.2-1.5" across the south. This will result in an increase in cloud cover as well as a return of rain chances across the local area. There is a low to medium (20- 60 percent) chance of rain from southern Brevard/Osceola southward today, with the greatest potential for rain occurring across the Treasure Coast and around Lake Okeechobee into early afternoon. There remains a low (20 percent) chance of lightning storms mainly across the Treasure Coast and southern Okeechobee county today. Rain chances push offshore late afternoon and overnight, remaining mostly dry over land areas on Monday. The next cold front will push across east central Florida this evening into tonight. This will be a dry frontal passage, with no mentionable rain chances through Monday. However, winds will increase across the local area tonight into Monday as the axis of the strong high pressure builds over the Florida peninsula, tightening the pressure gradient and resulting in a period of windy conditions (especially along the coast). North to northwest winds at 5-10 mph today will increase to 15-25 mph across the interior and 20- 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph possible along the coast tonight into Monday with winds shifting north to northeast on Monday. A Wind Advisory has been issued along the coast starting at 7pm tonight. The high pressure will steadily weaken on Monday, which will allow the pressure gradient to loosen somewhat over the local area. This will result in the north to northeast winds decreasing, however, they will remain breezy/gusty especially along the coast. These strong winds will also result in rough, pounding surf and minor beach erosion tonight into Monday. Breaking waves of 7-9 FT are forecast, briefly up to 10 FT along the Volusia coast. Thus, a High Surf Advisory has also been issued. The high tide of most concern will be early Monday between 4am-5am. A High risk of rip currents goes into effect later this afternoon from Cape Canaveral northward, spreading to all the coast Monday. Temperatures will be above normal today before becoming noticeably cooler behind the front on Monday. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s today before dropping to low to mid 60s across the north and upper 60s to low 70s across the south on Monday. Overnight lows will range from mid to upper 40s across the far north to low 60s across the far south tonight, and range from low to mid 40s across the far north and near 60 degrees across the far south on Monday night. Tuesday-Thursday... A weakening high pressure across the Deep South will move into GA early on Tuesday before gradually shifting eastward, moving offshore into the Atlantic ocean by Thursday. The trailing axis will remain over the Florida Peninsula through the time period. This will result in north to northeast winds turning easterly on Tuesday at 5-10 mph as the high settles into the Deep South before eventually veering east to southeast Wednesday evening and continuing through Thursday as the high moves offshore. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through Wednesday, with no mentionable rain chances over land areas through that time. Isolated to scattered showers will continue to be possible over the Atlantic waters however. Rain chances return to land areas on Thursday, with isolated showers forecast along the immediate coast of the Treasure Coast. Temperatures will be on a slight warming trend into late week, going from seasonable/slightly below normal to above normal by Thursday. Afternoon highs will generally be in the low 70s on Tuesday, mid 70s on Wednesday, and upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s Tuesday night, mid to upper 50s on Wednesday night, and upper 50s to low 60s on Thursday night. Friday-Saturday...An upper level trough will push into the eastern US on Friday and out into the Atlantic on Saturday. The next cold front is forecast to approach Friday, first dropping into north Florida before reaching the far northern part of the CWA Friday night/early Saturday morning, then pushing through the rest of the CWA throughout the day on Saturday. North to northwest winds at 5-10 mph on Friday will veer northeast to east on Saturday behind the front. The frontal passage Friday night through Saturday looks to be mostly dry, with no mentionable rain chances over land areas. Isolated showers will be possible ahead of the front on Friday, with a low (20 percent) chance of showers occurring along the immediate coast of the Treasure Coast. Temperatures will not change much behind the front, with afternoon highs forecast to be in the upper 70s to low 80s on both Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s on and Friday night, and range from upper 50s to low 60s across the north to low to mid 60s across the south. && .MARINE... Issued at 229 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Today-Thursday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Conditions will begin to deteriorate this afternoon and especially this evening/overnight as strong high pressure builds over the area behind a cold front, tightening the pressure gradient over the local area. North winds increase 20-25 knots by sunset across the northern (Volusia) waters will overspread the remainder of our coastal waters this evening with rapidly building seas especially in the Gulf Stream. A Gale Warning has been posted for the Volusia Atlantic waters for frequent gusts to gale force (34 knots) while solid Small Craft Advisory conditions will exist elsewhere with occasional gusts to gale force possible. Seas will build rapidly to 13 FT in the Gulf Stream tonight into Monday with 7-10 FT nearshore. The high pressure will weaken as it settles into the SE US Monday so wind speeds will drop below 20 knots Mon aftn but seas will be slower to subside given the NE wind component. The high will push seaward through mid week and winds will veer east then southeast in response and the pressure gradient supporting 10-14 knots. It will take a little while for seas to subside below 7 FT in the Gulf Stream so have extended the SCA there slightly. But once we lose the north wind component, seas will subside below 6 FT Tuesday night and below 5 FT Wednesday. Seas nearshore will be 3 FT Wednesday- Thursday as winds develop a SE component. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 633 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Only minor adjustments to ongoing TAFs. First was the timing of the cold front / wind surge, which is coming in slightly later this evening from north to south. Second, and of lesser confidence, is CIGs late tonight and into Monday as marine stratocumulus develops and moves ashore. Model soundings suggest bases should be AOA FL030, so flirting with MVFR at a few sites in the morning before lifting into VFR as the boundary layer deepens by afternoon. Peak north to north-northeast wind gusts 22-28 KT for inland/Orlando area terminals tonight, including at MCO. Coastal terminals have a 10-20% chance of peak wind gusts of 30+ KT, particularly at DAB before midnight and along the Treasure Coast after midnight through sunrise. Winds veer solidly NE with gusts slowly subsiding Monday afternoon/evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 50 62 50 69 / 0 10 10 0 MCO 53 64 50 71 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 56 67 55 71 / 10 10 10 0 VRB 59 69 55 73 / 20 10 10 10 LEE 45 62 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 50 63 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 50 63 49 71 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 59 69 55 73 / 20 10 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Wind Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ141-347-447. High Surf Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ141-154- 159-164-347-447-647-747. Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ154-159-164-647-747. AM...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ550-570. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ552. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ555-575. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ572. && $$ |
| #1254492 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 646 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Arctic high will build in tonight behind a strong cold front that pushed offshore earlier this morning, bringing the coldest temperatures of the season thus far to the area tonight. High pressure shifts offshore by the middle of next week with moderating conditions expected. Another strong cold front then moves through Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 630 PM Sunday... Key Messages: - Gusty winds expected across ENC, especially along the Outer Banks where gusts to 35-45 mph are expected. A Wind Advisory is in place for all OBX zones through late tonight. - Dangerous cold expected Monday morning with wind chills in the 5- 15 degree range. A Cold Weather Advisory is in place from late this evening through tomorrow morning. An area of low-mid level convergence and modest moisture has led to the development of some light wintry precipitation over, and just to the west of, the OBX this evening. Short-term guidance suggests this precip should be short-lived (ie. through about 9pm or so). The forecast was updated to add in a mention of scattered flurries through then. Accumulations and impacts are not expected. Additionally, after the initial plunge behind the front, the fall of temperatures has slowed some. The forecast has also been updated to show a slower drop in temps over the next few hours, but with lows still bottoming out as cold as previously advertised. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Strong cold front has pushed offshore of ENC as of noon Sunday, with temperatures rapidly falling across the area. Temperatures now reported in the upper-30s to lower-40s after nearing 60 earlier this morning. Colder air will continue to filter in through today/tonight, with temperatures falling into the low-to-mid 30s by this evening before falling into the upper teens inland tonight (low-20s beaches). This will be the coldest air of the season thus far, with wind chills dropping into the 5-15 F range tonight. Given this, Cold Weather Advisory remains in place for all of the forecast area from late this evening into early tomorrow morning. Strong northwesterly winds are accompanying this arctic blast, with gusts 20-30 mph inland and gusts of 35-45 mph expected along the OBX. A Wind Advisory is in place for the Northern Outer Banks and Ocracoke/Hatteras Islands until late tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 1 PM Sunday...Arctic high traverses ENC with cold and brisk temps (highs in the 30s area-wide) expected Monday. Breeziest conditions expected through the morning with winds abating through the day tomorrow. Monday night may be the colder of the next two nights, especially for the coastal mainland areas due to clear skies and decoupled conditions. Lows will be near 20 (25-30 OBX). Winds will be light (unlike tonight), so conditions are currently expected to remain above Cold Weather Advisory criteria, however. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1 PM Sunday... Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure slides offshore Tuesday with SW flow returning bringing a warming trend through mid week (highs expected to warm into the 50s Wednesday and into the 60s by Thursday). Precip chances increase late Thursday (10-30%) and Thursday night (50-70%) with another cold front approaching and moving through the region. Friday through Saturday...Cold front pushes east by week`s end, with dry conditions returning. This late week trough/frontal system is forecast to be weaker than tomorrow`s system. Thus, do not currently expect as substantial of a temperature drop behind the late-week cold front. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 630 PM Sunday... Key Messages - Gusty winds (20-35kt+) to continue for much of the night - VFR conditions expected through Monday Gusty, post-frontal winds are expected to continue through the evening and, for most areas, into the overnight hours. During this time, gusts of 20-25kt will be common at all ENC TAF sites, with higher gusts of 30-35kt+ across the Outer Banks. Winds should finally decrease to less than 10kt by Monday morning, and become less gusty. For the TAF sites, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. East of the TAF sites (ie. near the Outer Banks), low clouds and scattered flurries will remain possible for several hours. No snow accumulations, or reductions to VIS, are expected. On Monday, periods of low clouds may continue to impact the Outer Banks. Outlook: VFR conditions persist through midweek before the next chance at sub-VFR conditions Thursday into Fri with the approach of a frontal system. && .MARINE... As of 630 PM Sunday... Key Messages: - Gale conditions through tonight for northwesterly winds behind a passing cold front, with gusts of 35-40 kt expected. - SCA conditions expected to linger through tonight for sounds/rivers and into Monday afternoon/evening for the coastal waters Marine observations over the past 1-2 hours have shown a notable decrease in winds, which appears to be due to a temporary weakness in the pressure gradient. Guidance suggests this weakness will strengthen over the next few hours, with winds building once again. The forecast in the very near term was updated to reflect the lower winds for most waters, but given the expected increase, no headline changes will be made. Should the decreased trend last longer, some headline changes may be needed. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Today/Tonight...Winds have flipped to northwesterly behind the passage of this morning`s strong cold front, with winds generally noted as 20-30 kts and gusts ranging from 25-35 kts across area waters with this initial northwesterly surge. Gale conditions are already noted across the coastal waters, with the sounds and Alligator River expected to reach Gales later this evening with a secondary northwesterly surge. Winds will peak overnight tonight before beginning to taper off late tonight/Monday morning. Seas have quickly built to 5-7 ft and are expected to peak at 8-12 ft tonight. Monday...Winds die down quickly through the day on Monday, with gusts likely falling below SCA conditions Monday morning. Elevated seas will linger through much of the day, however, with 6+ ft seas lingering north of Cape Hatteras and along the Gulf Stream through Monday evening. Winds back to westerly Monday night. Tuesday through Thursday...Winds abate and broad southwesterly flow develops, with speeds in the 10-20 kt range expected. Gusts may again increase to near/just above SCA criteria across the Gulf Stream waters Wednesday. Seas will be generally 2-5 ft, with the potential for some 6-footers across the Gulf Stream Wednesday afternoon. Thursday night into Friday...Another round of SCA conditions looks likely late this week as southwesterly flow strengthens ahead of the next approaching cold front starting late Thursday and lasting into Friday. With warm offshore waters, gale conditions possible over the Gulf Stream with strong southwesterly flow in place ahead of next cold front. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for NCZ029- 044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205. Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for NCZ203>205. MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EST Monday for AMZ131-230-231. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Monday for AMZ150-152-154-156-158. && $$ |
| #1254491 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 634 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Cold Weather Advisory Late Tonight & Monday Morning. Wind Chills: 12-25F for Southeast GA, the Suwannee Valley & Inland Northeast FL - Freeze Watches & Warnings for Southeast GA & Inland Northeast FL. Hard Freezes for Inland Southeast GA Late Tonight and Again Monday Night. Light Freezes for Coastal Southeast GA, Suwannee Valley & Inland Northeast FL Late - Tonight & Monday Night - Wind Advisory Tonight & Early Monday Morning for Beach Communities. Frequent Wind Gusts of 40-45 mph Expected for Locations East of I-95. High Surf (6-9 feet) and High Risk of Rip Currents - Gale Warning Late this Afternoon through Early Monday Morning && .UPDATE... Strong arctic front continues to push across northeast FL this evening, with temps and dew points crashing from northwest to southeast in a breezy northwest flow. Main forecast updates were with respect to timing of several elements, though also bumped up forecast lows a bit tonight as guidance has been coming in warmer with the slight slow down of the frontal passage. Wind advisory begins at 7PM for coastal northeast FL, where gusts will pick up overnight as flow turns more onshore for these areas. Cold Weather Advisory and Freeze Warnings along with Gale Warning are unchanged for this update. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will build across the southeastern US Monday. A weak inverted trough will be located over the coastal waters. Across inland SE GA and Suwannee valley of NE FL, the high will provide mainly light winds with clear skies. Along the coast, though the onshore flow will keep winds more elevated with the clouds resulting from the trough. With cold airmass it in place, temperatures will be well below average. The high pressure ridge will extend a little further south into area Monday night, as weak troughing remains over coastal waters off central east coast of FL. Onshore flow along the NE FL coast, will hold lows there in the lower to mid 40s. However, inland areas will have lows fall as low as the middle 20s. The high pressure ridge will become centered to the east Tuesday, with ridge extending across forecast area. It will be a dry and mostly sunny day. Temperatures will be milder, but still trend below average. The high center will drift a little further to the east Tuesday night, with a weak coastal trough in place. It will be a partly cloudy and milder night, with lows ranging from the middle 30s over inland SE GA, to around 50 over the NE FL coast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will be centered to the northeast Wednesday into Wednesday night, as an inverted trough remains over the coastal waters. The trough will lead to partly cloudy skies, but the flow around the back side of the high will help temperatures moderate back to above average levels for Wednesday and Wednesday night. The high and the trough will pull east of Thursday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Thursday will be a largely dry day, but a few showers will be possible well inland later in the day. As the flow gradually comes more from the south, highs will push above average levels. The cold front will move through Thursday night into Friday morning. The precipitation is expected to decrease in coverage as the front moves through, but showers can not be ruled out. Temperatures will continue above average Thursday night and Friday. High pressure will build to the north Friday night, then northeast Saturday with above average temperatures continuing. A cold front will affect the area Sunday, with a low potential for showers, as temperatures continue above normal. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Frontal boundary pushing through the are this evening is bringing a band of cloud cover near MVFR at times briefly, but otherwise a dry front with gusty northwesterly flow now in place. VFR is expected to accompany the breezy dry flow by later this evening, though a coastal trough developing towards Monday Morning will bring some low clouds to more coastal sites for much of the day Monday. MVFR ceilings will be possible at times, though confidence not high enough at this update to include more than FEW/SCT coverage at this time. Otherwise, breezy flow shifting more onshore tonight and through Monday Morning will also subside throughout the day Monday, dropping below 10 knots by the end of the forecast period. && .MARINE... Winds will continue to increase across the local waters as an arctic cold front moves through this afternoon. Winds will gradually increase through the evening with strong, frequent gusts to Gale Force developing toward sunset, especially across the northeastern Florida coastal waters. Those winds will quickly increase seas tonight as well, with rough waves as high as 10 feet offshore and across the NE FL coastal waters. As winds turn northeasterly Monday, coastal troughing will develop encouraging scattered showers, mainly offshore. Weakening high pressure will then shift southward Tuesday, allowing winds and seas to subside. High pressure then shifts offshore on Wednesday afternoon in advance of a weakening frontal boundary that will likely cross the Georgia waters on Friday morning and may then stall over the northeast Florida waters by Friday night. Rip Currents: SE GA High Monday NE FL High Monday && .FIRE WEATHER... CRITICALLY LOW RH LEVELS INLAND SE GA MONDAY... LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS TUESDAY NORTH OF I10... LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ALONG COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... A cold front will move southeast of the region this afternoon. Strong high pressure will build from the northwest following the front. The high will settle across the southeastern US Monday, then move off to the east Tuesday. A cold front will move through Thursday night into Friday. High pressure will build to the north then northeast Saturday. A cold front will move through Sunday. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected Tonight. Widespread inland Frost Monday night. Patchy frost SE GA Tuesday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 24 44 24 58 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 32 46 36 58 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 33 50 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 44 57 45 65 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 36 55 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 40 58 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for FLZ021- 023-024-030-031-035-120-124-125-132-136-220-225-232-236- 322-325-422-425-522. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for FLZ021-023- 024-030-031-035-120-124-136-220-225-232-236-322-422-425- 522. Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-136-220-232-236-322-422- 425-522. Wind Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. High Risk for Rip Currents from 1 AM EST Monday through Monday evening for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. High Surf Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ138-233- 333. GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ132>136- 149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364. High Risk for Rip Currents from 1 AM EST Monday through Monday evening for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472- 474. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ450- 452-454-470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1254489 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:36 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 618 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Arctic high pressure will bring very cold temperatures tonight through Monday night. Temperatures will then gradually warm up Tuesday and Wednesday with another system moving across late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Once clouds break out in the next couple of hours, expect mainly clear/sunny skies through the period with cold temperatures as arctic high pressure builds into the area. A cold weather advisory is up for tonight into Monday with wind chill values below 10 degrees expected by late evening. Winds should abate enough that wind chills will be above cold weather advisory criteria by 9 AM Monday. Lows tonight will fall to the mid to upper teens with highs Monday from 35 to 40. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Quiet and cold conditions will be in place through the short term (mid week) period. The area of surface high pressure will drift overhead breaking down and drifting offshore as a warming southwest flow develops. Lows Tuesday AM are in the lower 20s but wouldn`t be surprised at some lower values in the traditionally cooler areas. Highs will approach 50 perhaps just a bit over southern areas Tuesday followed by more reasonable lows in the lower 30s Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A somewhat fast moving system will bring pops to the area on and around Thursday in the fast moving zonal flow aloft. Good chance values reside across the area with even a few likely stamps showing up with the frontal passage late Thursday evening. That`s about it for pops for the extended period. As for temperatures expect slightly warmer values early on trending downward in time behind the aforementioned front. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR/SKC will continue through the next 24 hours. Gusty winds will continue through 03-06z during the period of strong cold advection behind the arctic front earlier today. Extended Forecast...There is a low probability of low clouds and/or fog early Thursday morning, followed by a low probability of MVFR ceilings and visibilities in showers as the next front reaches the area Thursday or Thursday night. && .MARINE... Through Monday... N to NW winds at 20 to 30 KT with gusts of 35 to 40 KT are expected into tonight. Winds will diminish to 10 to 15 KT north and 15 to 20 KT south by Monday afternoon. Seas will peak at 5 to 7 FT overnight into Monday before subsiding to 3 to 6 FT during Monday. Monday Night through Friday... Winds and seas will dramatically decrease from the values the strong cold air advection will have led to. By Monday evening west winds dropping to single digits will be in place. In time the flow will become south to southwest near ten knots. Very late in the period wind speeds increase ahead of the next system moving across. Significant seas will be 1-3 feet increasing very late coinciding with the increase in winds. && .CLIMATE... Record Low Temps for Dec 15: KILM: 17 / 2010 KLBT: 13 / 2010 KCRE: 17 / 1944 KFLO: 13 / 2010 Record Low High Temps for Dec 15: KILM: 34 / 1958 KLBT: 37 / 1949 KCRE: 40 / 2010 KFLO: 35 / 1958 && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. SC...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1254488 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 518 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 505 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 * Hazardous marine and coastal conditions persist through Monday in response to a cold front. * Gusty winds and near to below average temperatures today and Monday. * Warmer than normal temperatures and mainly rain-free weather will prevail through next week, with a chance of showers Tuesday/Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1216 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 A cold front has worked its way across Deep South Texas this morning, leaving cooler temperatures, gusty winds, showers, and coastal hazards in its wake. Showers against the front are currently moving past the Rio Grande River, and will continue to move south of the region through the afternoon. Dry air behind the front will keep rain chances low for late Sunday afternoon onwards, but an isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out. Gusty northerly winds from 15-25 mph gusting 20 to around 40 mph will continue through the afternoon, beginning to lessen overnight. Stronger, gustier winds will be nearer the coast. Coastal hazards behind the cold front include a Coastal Flood Statement, in effect from 12 PM Sunday to midnight, a High Surf Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 6 AM Monday, and a High Risk of Rip Currents through 6 PM Monday. Despite astronomically low tides and a waning crescent moon, strong northerly winds behind the front will build seas and may cause narrow beaches and runup. Temporary relief in temperatures following cold fropa, with near to just below average temps through Monday. High temperatures were reached this morning as cold air advection begins to drain cooler air into the CWA, dropping temperatures through the overnight. Monday morning low temperatures in the 40s, 50s along the immediate coast and RGV. Mostly cloudy skies Monday morning begin to break up through the afternoon, with high temperatures in the 60s. Dry air behind the front will keep rain chances low (20% or less) through Tuesday, when southeasterly flow returns moisture into the atmosphere. An approaching disturbance midweek will elevate rain chances Tuesday night through Wednesday - moderate along the coast and low inland. In the latter half of the week, a zonal synoptic setup is expected to dominate, leaving benign weather and a chance for warm temperatures to rise to above average. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 505 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 MVFR ceilings this evening are currently ranging from around 1,200 ft at KBRO, 1,300 ft at KHRL and 1,500 ft at KMFE along with northerly winds of 15-20 knots, gusting to 25-30 knots. These conditions are likely to prevail through at least 06Z tonight, though ceilings may briefly drop to IFR at KBRO, perhaps at KHRL as well. Winds steadily improve overnight to around 10-15 knots by sunrise tomorrow, further winding down and remaining out of the north throughout the daytime as MVFR ceilings gradually rise, possibly becoming scattered in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1216 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Unfavorable marine conditions are in place behind a cold front passage Sunday morning. Strong to near gale northerly winds with gusts to gale force will continue Sunday afternoon and ahead of sunrise Monday. Seas build to rough Sunday afternoon and persist overnight, decreasing during Monday. Moderate winds turn southeasterly Tuesday and continue through much of the week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms diminish Sunday evening as dry air enters behind the front. Low chances of rain continue until Tuesday evening, when medium to high (40 to 70 percent) chances return through Wednesday. Favorable conditions to persist Tuesday through late week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 50 66 56 76 / 20 10 0 20 HARLINGEN 47 64 52 75 / 10 0 0 10 MCALLEN 50 65 55 73 / 20 0 0 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 47 64 51 71 / 10 0 0 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 59 65 61 73 / 30 10 0 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 51 65 55 76 / 20 0 0 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for TXZ451-454- 455. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ130-132-135. Gale Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ150-155-170-175. && $$ |
| #1254487 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:21 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 617 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A brief shot of arctic air follows a departing low pressure tonight into Monday, with wind chill values dropping to between 0 to 10 below. Cold weather continues Monday night into Tuesday but with much lighter winds. A warming trend in temperatures is expected Wednesday and especially by Thursday with high temperatures of 50+ possible. A round of rainfall is looking likely later Thursday into Friday accompanied by a period of strong southerly winds. A brief shot of much colder weather with another period of strong winds possible Friday into early Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Key Messages... * Accumulating snow ends into this evening, confined mostly to southeast MA this afternoon. * Turning colder tonight. Lows in the single digits and teens. Minimum wind chill values between 0 to 10 below. A few locations towards NW MA could see wind chill values as low as 20 below. Accumulating snow had largely ended across most of RI and portions of southeast MA. As such, canceled a portion of the Winter Weather Advisory already. Will monitor the progress of the snowfall this afternoon, and perhaps cancel more of the remaining Advisory towards 4 PM. Otherwise, it will still expire at 7 PM this evening. As of this writing, the heaviest snow band extended from between the Vineyard and Nantucket northeast across the outer Cape. The outer Cape is where additional accumulating snow is possible. Still expecting snowfall to diminish from NW to SE this afternoon. Will continue the Winter Weather Advisories as they are for now. Will likely be able to cancel some of these advisories prior to the 7 PM expiration time. Once the snowfall ends, just turning colder with clearing skies and gusts WNW winds overnight. Considered a Cold Weather Advisory towards the Berkshires, but thinking the colder conditions will not be widespread enough to warrant a headline. This will need to be monitored this evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages... * Gusty WNW winds through Monday * Dry weather with below normal temperatures A sprawling high pressure over the central USA will maintain dry and cold conditions across southern New England into Monday night. Some sunshine to start the day, with increasing clouds during the afternoon. Mostly cloudy skies expected Monday night, but not much in the way of precipitation. There is a low chance for a stray snow shower from the Great Lakes to make it into the Berkshires Monday Night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Messages... * Rain, potentially heavy at times, likely later Thursday into Friday. * Period of strong winds possible Friday into early Saturday. Details... Tuesday: Extended period will start off with continued below normal temperatures on Tuesday. 850mb temperatures aloft warm slightly as the mid-level pattern moderates a bit from Monday, this will likely bring highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Surface high pressure positioned to the south will support mainly dry conditions and light southwesterly winds. Wednesday through Friday: Wednesday into Thursday, there is a good consensus among ensemble guidance for a change in the pattern aloft. A more zonal pattern is favored for Wednesday and by Thursday higher heights advect into the region ahead of our next system. This will start a trend in warming temperatures as warmer temperatures aloft move in also accompanied by breezier southwest winds. High temperatures Thursday rise into the 40s for most areas. Thursday, a mid-level shortwave trough approaches with strong WAA ahead of it. A strong 850mb temperature anomaly overhead should support a mild day with high temperatures in the 40s to near 50 in spots. Models keep things dry despite the warm and moist advection through the day Thursday ahead of the approaching system. Can`t rule out a stray shower later in the day Thursday. Ensemble guidance favors the bulk of the system to move through sometime Thursday evening into Friday, although there are some timing differences among individual members. There will be a good amount of synoptic support for soaking rain event with a strong southerly LLJ transporting in a plume of above normal moisture (170- 220% of normal) combined with broad ascent & frontal forcing. This may also support a period of moderate to heavy rainfall. With plenty of WAA ahead of the system, this system will be simply rain for everyone. Ensembles generally show a range of 0.25 to 0.80" for rain amounts. Rain should decrease from west to east Friday AM to Friday afternoon with a cold front pushing in behind it. If the front moves through during the day, it may end up being a non-diurnal type day with the high temperatures occurring at in the morning (40s/50s), especially further west. Another concern with this system will be the potential for strong winds. The suite of deterministic and ensemble guidance has shown good agreement with a strong LLJ over the region. NAEFS and ECMWF EFI highlights this jet and potential gusts to be anomalously high. The LLJ orients generally SW to NE eventually shifting over southeast MA Friday night with 925mb winds 50-70 kts. The challenge will be the degree of mixing we will get under the inversion and what locations will have the higher potential. There is also second period favored gusty winds behind the cold front on Friday. We are still pretty far out, so details are still fuzzy. Models are still struggling with the timing of the system and cold front which will influence timing/magnitude of gusts. So for now, there is a signal worth monitoring for a period of stronger winds in the Thursday night to Friday timeframe. Trending colder behind the cold front Friday night and Saturday with temperatures returning to below normal. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight...High Confidence A lingering snow band with light to moderate snow will be slow to move offshore from N to S from 03-06z. Within the band, MVFR- IFR and even brief LIFR conditions are expected. Lowered ceilings will persist longest across the Cape and Islands. This activity should dissipate just after midnight. Otherwise, WNW wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots with a few gusts near 30 knots across the high terrain and near the coast develop. Monday...High Confidence Mainly VFR with NW gusts up to 30 knots. A few fair-weather clouds early, but should be VFR. VFR CIGS developing during the afternoon. Monday Night...High Confidence. VFR CIGS. Lighter W winds. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in timing. Little additional accumulation, although some very light snow possible before 21Z. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: VFR. Tuesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. RA likely. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. RA likely. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Monday Night...High confidence. Winds quickly increase to gales this evening as colder air arrives and continues into Monday. Expecting wind gusts between 35-40 kt later this evening into Monday afternoon. Areas of very light freezing spray possible tonight and Monday. Elsewhere, Small Craft Advisory conditions expected in Narragansett Bay and Boston Harbor. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Thursday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely. Friday: gale force winds with areas of gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MAZ022>024. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Monday for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251- 254>256. Freezing Spray Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ232>234. && $$ |
| #1254486 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:21 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 510 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 508 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 - Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills will occur tonight into Monday. Wind chills could drop to 10 degrees over interior counties and to around 15 degrees over coastal counties. - Strong marine winds will continue into Monday behind the cold front pushing south over the Gulf. Frequent gusts to gale force are likely over the open Gulf waters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 209 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 The coldest air mass of the season will continue to filter in from the north as a strong surface high pressure system builds into the region. The Cold Weather Advisory for our entire area was updated for a slightly earlier start time, and is now in effect from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday. Low temperatures tonight are still forecast to drop down into the upper teens to lower 20s inland, and from 23 to 28 degrees along the immediate coast. These temperatures range from 13 to 19 degrees below normal. As mentioned earlier, we may get to within a few degrees of our daily record low for Mobile. The record low for December 15 is 20 degrees set way back in 1901, and our forecast low is 23 degrees. The record low for Pensacola is also 20 degrees set in 1901, but our forecast low is 29 degrees. Dangerously wind chills will also occur tonight into Monday as the breezy conditions contribute to apparent temperatures (wind chills) dropping to as low as 10 to 15 degrees inland, with upper teens potentially reaching the immediate coast. We still think that a few locations along the coast may reach Extreme Cold Warning criteria (15 degrees or lower) from time to time, but is not widespread enough to issue a warning at this time. High temperatures on Monday will be around 15 degrees below normal, and only reach the middle to upper 40s despite the sunny skies. Lows Monday night will generally be in the 20s area-wide. With the surface high pressure system shifting off to our east, temperatures moderate Tuesday through Thursday as flow aloft becomes more westerly to southwesterly. Highs by Thursday will rebound to 5 to 10 degrees above normal, and should range from 67 to 72 degrees. Rain chances should also return to the area by Thursday as the next, weaker cold front approaches and passes through the region. Beach Forecast: A LOW risk of rip currents will occur through Wednesday, increasing to a Moderate Risk on Thursday. /22 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 510 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 VFR conditions are expected through Monday. Breezy northerly winds at 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots gradually diminish overnight, with a northeasterly flow at 5-10 knots following for Monday morning. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 209 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through Monday morning as northerly to northeasterly winds of 20 to 30 knots continues. Waves up to 3 ft for the bays and sounds and seas 6 to 9 ft for the Gulf can be expected. A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf beyond 20 nm from 3 PM this afternoon until 8 PM CST this evening due to frequent gusts up to 35 knots. Winds subside on Monday, becoming light easterly for Tuesday. A light to occasional moderate onshore flow will develop midweek, shifting to an offshore flow Thursday night as another cold front passes through the region. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 23 48 28 59 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 29 49 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 31 49 36 58 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 22 48 22 59 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 20 45 22 57 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 20 45 23 55 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 22 48 22 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for ALZ051>060- 261>266. FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for FLZ201>206. MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ630>636. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ650-655. Gale Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for GMZ670-675. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ670-675. && $$ |
| #1254485 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:21 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 510 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Freezing temperatures are expected for a good part of SE TX overnight. Hazardous marine conditions continue, but will begin to improve late tonight. - Gradual warm-up into midweek. - Chances for scattered showers return to the forecast late Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Next front penciled in for Thursday afternoon/night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1252 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 In the wake of last night`s cold front, temperatures are between 15-30 degrees colder than what we had this time yesterday. Skies will clear from the east/northeast for the remainder of the day and tonight and winds will gradually diminish. Combination of both should allow for freezing overnight lows for a good part of SE Tx tonight. The Freeze Watch previously in effect for locations that haven`t received their first winter freeze has been converted to a Freeze Warning. Also threw in Wharton and northern Brazoria Counties where guidance trended a touch lower with temps. Kept Galveston County out for now, as a NE wind trajectory off the warmer bay should keep temps a few degrees above the freezing mark (but we`ll monitor trends). Gradual warm-up will begin Monday as cold high pressure area starts moving further to our east and winds swing back around to a e/se direction off the Gulf. Highs/lows will transition upward on a daily basis and back into the 70s/50s by midweek. Mid-upper trof will pass across the state Tue night-Wednesday night. We should see enough of a moisture return by then for some scattered shower and/or isolated thunderstorm development. The next cold front, Pacific in origin and not nearly impressive as the current one, is penciled in for Thursday afternoon & evening followed by a quick return of the warm muggies heading into next weekend. 47 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 456 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 VFR conditions expected through the end of the TAF period. N-NE winds currently at 08-12KTS with gusts of around 20KTS for most sites, slightly stronger at GLS. Winds will continue to relax tonight to 04-06KTS and turn ENE to E on Mon (late afternoon or evening) as high pressure moves over SE Texas. Cotto && .MARINE... Issued at 1253 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Moderate-strong north to northeast winds 20 to 35 knots and elevated seas will continue into the overnight hours before slowly diminishing after midnight. Small Craft Advsy remains in effect for the bays, and will transition the Gale Warning in the Gulf back down to a SCA later this evening once gusts begin to subside. Continued improvement is anticipated Monday. Winds will gradually veer around to the east and southeast as high pressure tracks away from the region. Light to moderate onshore flow will then prevail through Thursday. We will need to be on the lookout for some sea fog development Wednesday and Thursday in between bouts of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The next front is forecast to push off the coast Thursday night. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 30 54 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 32 54 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 38 54 48 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for TXZ178-195>200-210>214-226-227-237-300-313. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ214-436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday for GMZ330-335. Gale Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-355-370-375. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ350-355-370-375. && $$ |
| #1254484 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:21 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 410 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 402 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 - The coldest air of the year will bring dangerous wind chills and a widespread freeze to the area tonight into Monday morning. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect over this time period. - Strong winds and dangerous seas are expected into Monday after a strong cold front moves through. Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings are now in effect for this time period. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 402 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 The area will experience the coldest air we have seen this season with lows falling into the 20s and lower 30s tonight and highs only warming into the mid to upper 40s on Monday. For areas north of I-10/12, a hard freeze and a threat to pipes will exist tonight as temperatures will remain below 25 degrees for several hours. In addition to the cold air temperatures, dangerous wind chills will take place tonight across the region as gusty north winds of 10 to 20 mph persist. Wind chill values will fall into the teens along and north of the I-10/12 corridor and the low to mid 20s further south. A cold weather advisory remains in effect for the entire area. The thermal trough axis associated with the deep layer cold pool over the eastern third of the country will start to shift to the east Monday night, but that will not mean a return to milder conditions. After a chilly and sunny Monday with highs struggling to reach the mid to upper 40s per the latest 925mb temperature profiles, lows will easily fall back into the upper 20s and lower 30s for most of the region Monday night. Only the immediate coast of Louisiana and areas along the southshore of Lake Pontchartrain remaining in the mid to upper 30s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 402 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 A return to a much warmer and more humid airmass will quickly happen as we move into Tuesday and Wednesday. On Tuesday, the trough over the eastern CONUS will fully depart and a shortwave upper level ridge axis will slide in from the west. In the low to mid-levels, a broad high will also slide to the east. This will allow for a deep layer onshore flow pattern to develop, and PWATS will gradually climb back to more average levels for this time of year by Wednesday. A weak southern stream vort max will slip through on Wednesday night and Thursday, but limited mid and upper level moisture over the area will keep any shower activity isolated to widely scattered even as PWATS rise to over 1.2 inches. Once this system passes by, a zonal flow regime will develop over the area for Friday. A weak front will slightly cool temperatures, but only back to the averages for this time of year. In the wake of the front, a zonal flow regime will dominate aloft as a broad high sits over the region. Temperatures will quickly rise back to warmer than average readings with lows in the 50s and highs in the lower 70s over the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 402 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 VFR conditions will be in place at all of the terminals as cold and dry high pressure system moves in from the north. Winds will remain gusty from the north at all of the terminals through the overnight hours, but some improvement is expected tomorrow as the surface high becomes more centered over the region. && .MARINE... Issued at 402 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Strong northerly windsof between 25 and 30 knots with higher gusts will continue through Monday morning. Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings are in effect for the waters due to these winds. Another high will then quickly settle over the area on Tuesday, and this will allow winds to turn more easterly and fall back to less than 10 knots. Seas will also begin to subside as the winds decrease Monday night into Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday will see a slight increase in the onshore flow to 10 to 15 knots as the pressure gradient over the waters tightens in response to a passing shortwave feature, and these winds will turn offshore on Friday. However, no signficant impacts to maritime activities are expected once we get past tonight and tomorrow morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 22 47 25 58 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 24 48 26 59 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 22 48 24 61 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 32 46 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 26 48 28 60 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 22 48 24 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557. Gale Warning until 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ570-572-575-577. MS...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for MSZ068>071-077-083>088. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557. Gale Warning until 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1254483 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:21 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 407 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A brief shot of arctic air follows a departing low pressure tonight into Monday, with wind chill values dropping to between 0 to 10 below. Cold weather continues Monday night into Tuesday but with much lighter winds. A warming trend in temperatures is expected Wednesday and especially by Thursday with high temperatures of 50+ possible. A round of rainfall is looking likely later Thursday into Friday accompanied by a period of strong southerly winds. A brief shot of much colder weather with another period of strong winds possible Friday into early Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Key Messages... * Accumulating snow ends into this evening, confined mostly to southeast MA this afternoon. * Turning colder tonight. Lows in the single digits and teens. Minimum wind chill values between 0 to 10 below. A few locations towards NW MA could see wind chill values as low as 20 below. Accumulating snow had largely ended across most of RI and portions of southeast MA. As such, canceled a portion of the Winter Weather Advisory already. Will monitor the progress of the snowfall this afternoon, and perhaps cancel more of the remaining Advisory towards 4 PM. Otherwise, it will still expire at 7 PM this evening. As of this writing, the heaviest snow band extended from between the Vineyard and Nantucket northeast across the outer Cape. The outer Cape is where additional accumulating snow is possible. Still expecting snowfall to diminish from NW to SE this afternoon. Will continue the Winter Weather Advisories as they are for now. Will likely be able to cancel some of these advisories prior to the 7 PM expiration time. Once the snowfall ends, just turning colder with clearing skies and gusts WNW winds overnight. Considered a Cold Weather Advisory towards the Berkshires, but thinking the colder conditions will not be widespread enough to warrant a headline. This will need to be monitored this evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages... * Gusty WNW winds through Monday * Dry weather with below normal temperatures A sprawling high pressure over the central USA will maintain dry and cold conditions across southern New England into Monday night. Some sunshine to start the day, with increasing clouds during the afternoon. Mostly cloudy skies expected Monday night, but not much in the way of precipitation. There is a low chance for a stray snow shower from the Great Lakes to make it into the Berkshires Monday Night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Messages... * Rain, potentially heavy at times, likely later Thursday into Friday. * Period of strong winds possible Friday into early Saturday. Details... Tuesday: Extended period will start off with continued below normal temperatures on Tuesday. 850mb temperatures aloft warm slightly as the mid-level pattern moderates a bit from Monday, this will likely bring highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Surface high pressure positioned to the south will support mainly dry conditions and light southwesterly winds. Wednesday through Friday: Wednesday into Thursday, there is a good consensus among ensemble guidance for a change in the pattern aloft. A more zonal pattern is favored for Wednesday and by Thursday higher heights advect into the region ahead of our next system. This will start a trend in warming temperatures as warmer temperatures aloft move in also accompanied by breezier southwest winds. High temperatures Thursday rise into the 40s for most areas. Thursday, a mid-level shortwave trough approaches with strong WAA ahead of it. A strong 850mb temperature anomaly overhead should support a mild day with high temperatures in the 40s to near 50 in spots. Models keep things dry despite the warm and moist advection through the day Thursday ahead of the approaching system. Can`t rule out a stray shower later in the day Thursday. Ensemble guidance favors the bulk of the system to move through sometime Thursday evening into Friday, although there are some timing differences among individual members. There will be a good amount of synoptic support for soaking rain event with a strong southerly LLJ transporting in a plume of above normal moisture (170- 220% of normal) combined with broad ascent & frontal forcing. This may also support a period of moderate to heavy rainfall. With plenty of WAA ahead of the system, this system will be simply rain for everyone. Ensembles generally show a range of 0.25 to 0.80" for rain amounts. Rain should decrease from west to east Friday AM to Friday afternoon with a cold front pushing in behind it. If the front moves through during the day, it may end up being a non-diurnal type day with the high temperatures occurring at in the morning (40s/50s), especially further west. Another concern with this system will be the potential for strong winds. The suite of deterministic and ensemble guidance has shown good agreement with a strong LLJ over the region. NAEFS and ECMWF EFI highlights this jet and potential gusts to be anomalously high. The LLJ orients generally SW to NE eventually shifting over southeast MA Friday night with 925mb winds 50-70 kts. The challenge will be the degree of mixing we will get under the inversion and what locations will have the higher potential. There is also second period favored gusty winds behind the cold front on Friday. We are still pretty far out, so details are still fuzzy. Models are still struggling with the timing of the system and cold front which will influence timing/magnitude of gusts. So for now, there is a signal worth monitoring for a period of stronger winds in the Thursday night to Friday timeframe. Trending colder behind the cold front Friday night and Saturday with temperatures returning to below normal. && .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight...High Confidence MVFR-IFR and even brief LIFR conditions are expected in areas towards the Cape and Islands in ocean effect snow showers. This activity should dissipate just after midnight. Otherwise, WNW wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots with a few gusts near 30 knots across the high terrain and near the coast develop. Monday...High Confidence Mainly VFR with NW gusts up to 30 knots. A few fair-weather clouds early, but should be VFR. VFR CIGS developing during the afternoon. Monday Night...High Confidence. VFR CIGS. Lighter W winds. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in timing. Little additional accumulation, although some very light snow possible before 21Z. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: VFR. Tuesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. RA likely. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. RA likely. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Monday Night...High confidence. Winds quickly increase to gales this evening as colder air arrives and continues into Monday. Expecting wind gusts between 35-40 kt later this evening into Monday afternoon. Areas of very light freezing spray possible tonight and Monday. Elsewhere, Small Craft Advisory conditions expected in Narragansett Bay and Boston Harbor. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Thursday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely. Friday: gale force winds with areas of gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MAZ022>024. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Monday for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251- 254>256. Freezing Spray Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ232>234. && $$ |
| #1254482 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:21 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 209 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 209 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 - Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills will occur tonight into Monday. Wind chills could drop to 10 degrees over interior counties and to around 15 degrees over coastal counties. - Strong marine winds will continue into Monday behind the cold front pushing south over the Gulf. Frequent gusts to gale force are likely over the open Gulf waters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 209 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 The coldest air mass of the season will continue to filter in from the north as a strong surface high pressure system builds into the region. The Cold Weather Advisory for our entire area was updated for a slightly earlier start time, and is now in effect from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday. Low temperatures tonight are still forecast to drop down into the upper teens to lower 20s inland, and from 23 to 28 degrees along the immediate coast. These temperatures range from 13 to 19 degrees below normal. As mentioned earlier, we may get to within a few degrees of our daily record low for Mobile. The record low for December 15 is 20 degrees set way back in 1901, and our forecast low is 23 degrees. The record low for Pensacola is also 20 degrees set in 1901, but our forecast low is 29 degrees. Dangerously wind chills will also occur tonight into Monday as the breezy conditions contribute to apparent temperatures (wind chills) dropping to as low as 10 to 15 degrees inland, with upper teens potentially reaching the immediate coast. We still think that a few locations along the coast may reach Extreme Cold Warning criteria (15 degrees or lower) from time to time, but is not widespread enough to issue a warning at this time. High temperatures on Monday will be around 15 degrees below normal, and only reach the middle to upper 40s despite the sunny skies. Lows Monday night will generally be in the 20s area-wide. With the surface high pressure system shifting off to our east, temperatures moderate Tuesday through Thursday as flow aloft becomes more westerly to southwesterly. Highs by Thursday will rebound to 5 to 10 degrees above normal, and should range from 67 to 72 degrees. Rain chances should also return to the area by Thursday as the next, weaker cold front approaches and passes through the region. Beach Forecast: A LOW risk of rip currents will occur through Wednesday, increasing to a Moderate Risk on Thursday. /22 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 MVFR ceilings will clear this afternoon with VFR conditions through the remainder of the forecast. Strong northerly winds of 20 to 30 knots will continue this afternoon and early evening. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 209 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through Monday morning as northerly to northeasterly winds of 20 to 30 knots continues. Waves up to 3 ft for the bays and sounds and seas 6 to 9 ft for the Gulf can be expected. A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf beyond 20 nm from 3 PM this afternoon until 8 PM CST this evening due to frequent gusts up to 35 knots. Winds subside on Monday, becoming light easterly for Tuesday. A light to occasional moderate onshore flow will develop midweek, shifting to an offshore flow Thursday night as another cold front passes through the region. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 23 48 28 59 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 29 49 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 31 49 36 58 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 22 48 22 59 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 20 45 22 57 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 20 45 23 55 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 22 48 22 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for ALZ051>060-261>266. FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for FLZ201>206. MS...Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ630>636. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ650-655. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ670- 675. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon CST Monday for GMZ670-675. Gale Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for GMZ670-675. && $$ |
| #1254481 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:51 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 244 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 233 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 - Windy conditions expected late tonight through Monday night. - Hazardous marine and beach conditions expected through mid- week. - Showers and isolated storms possible through this evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 233 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 The core of the eastern CONUS northern stream trough resides over the eastern Great Lakes region this afternoon, with an elongated ribbon of +PV energy associated with the southern stream draped from the Four Corners region through the Gulf. At the surface, the low associated with the northern stream wave sits off the NE coast, with high pressure centered over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Across Florida there sits two boundaries: one draped across south-central Florida, and the other moving through north Florida. The former sits in the trough extending southwest from the low off the NE coast, and the latter delineates the drier and colder continental airmass being ushered in on the leading edge of high pressure. As this initial boundary move through South Florida today, scattered shower and a few storms will be possible. While there is plenty of instability and moisture in place, low-level flow is in the direction of the frontal movement and is limiting the available low-level convergence. The most robust storms that do develop are unlikely to produce any severe weather as effective shear generally remains below 20 knots, with unidirectional flow, and unimpressive lapse rates. The orientation of the low-level winds and the progressive nature of the front will likely preclude any localized flooding issues as well. The bigger story with this frontal system will be the windy conditions we`re expecting late tonight and through tomorrow, and the subsequent hazardous marine and beach conditions. The NAEFS and ECMWF ensemble systems depict that low-level winds could exceed climatological maximums tomorrow morning, with the ECMWF ensemble placing the wind event in the top 10 percentile of model forecasts for this time of year. What this equates to is about a 60% chance that wind gusts exceed 35 mph tomorrow, with a 10-20% chance of exceeding 40 mph. These top end values will be most likely along the east coast metros, with inland locations more likely to gust in the 20-30 mph range. While Monday and Monday night will be the coolest days of the upcoming week, highs and lows will be generally near normal at their lowest. Expect mid 70s in the afternoon, and lows ranging from the mid 60s along the immediate coast, and closer to 50 across the Lake region. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 233 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Through mid-week the upper level pattern will be dominated by multiple passing southern stream shortwaves that have little to no impact on the sensible weather as dry air will be abundant through the middle troposphere. As the low level ridge axis shifts south and east, a shallow layer of low-level moisture will remain under an E/ESE flow regime. Late in the week a northern stream wave will amplify the longwave pattern and bring another frontal system into the Southeast. This will be our next best chance for rain, but it will likely be of the hit-or-miss scattered variety. At this time there isn`t a strong signal for much meaningful rainfall in the foreseeable future. Highs and lows will gradually moderate back to the 80s in the afternoons, with near 70 degrees along the coasts each night. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 233 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 The main concerns for our terminals over the next 24-30 hours will be scattered showers and storms along a front this afternoon, winds and gusts increasing overnight and peaking tomorrow, and the potential for at least MVFR ceilings spreading across south Florida tomorrow morning through the day. Expect wind gusts tomorrow to be around 30 knots, however there are indications that, while not frequent, peak gust could near 35-40 knots (along the east coast) in a worst case scenario. Cool air advection over the Gulf Stream will likely bring a low cloud deck across south Florida tomorrow as well. && .MARINE... Issued at 233 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Winds shift northerly and increase behind a frontal passage today. The period of strongest winds appears to be after midnight tonight through tomorrow afternoon. During that time, sustained winds are forecast to be between 25-30 knots with occasional gusts to low-end Gale force. Small Craft Advisories will be in effect starting this evening for all Atlantic, Gulf, and Lake waters. The Advisories will taper off to only the Atlantic waters by Monday night. Winds and seas should fall below hazardous levels by mid-week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 233 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 The strong winds and large northerly swell will result in high surf along the Broward and Palm Beach coasts, while breakers will generally be 3-5 feet, occasional sets of 7-8 feet are expected. Needless to say, the rip current risk is also expected to be high. Surf conditions should improve by mid-week, but the rip risk may linger into late-week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 66 74 64 75 / 30 20 10 0 West Kendall 62 75 59 76 / 30 10 10 0 Opa-Locka 65 75 62 76 / 30 20 10 0 Homestead 65 76 64 76 / 30 20 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 66 73 64 73 / 30 30 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 66 72 64 74 / 30 30 10 0 Pembroke Pines 64 75 61 76 / 30 20 10 0 West Palm Beach 65 72 63 74 / 20 20 10 0 Boca Raton 66 74 64 76 / 30 20 10 0 Naples 59 75 57 78 / 10 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ168-172. High Rip Current Risk from Monday morning through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ610. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ630. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ650-651-670-671. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676. && $$ |
| #1254480 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:51 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 236 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 229 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 - Cold front will cross the area this evening and overnight, bring windy conditions tonight along the coast where a Wind Advisory has been posted. Breezy/gusty north winds over the interior during the night. - Beach and boating conditions will rapidly deteriorate late today across the Volusia waters where a Gale Warning will go into effect. These strong north winds will then quickly overspread all the waters this evening. A High risk of rip currents has also been issued for late today for Cape Canaveral northward, spreading southward to all the coast for Monday. - Breaking waves of 7 to 9 feet will develop tonight and early Monday, briefly up to 10 ft along the Volusia coast. Rough, pounding surf with numerous rip currents and minor beach erosion especially around high tide early Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Rest of Today-Monday... The upper level low pressure over the Great Plains will move into the Great Lakes region today before deepening and moving eastward towards Maine through Monday. At the surface, a strong high pressure centered over the Midwest will shift southward into the Deep South on Monday with the axis building over the Florida peninsula. The frontal boundary across South Florida will lift northward as a warm front today, increasing the moisture across the southern portions of the CWA. Forecast PW values will range from 1.0-1.1" across the north to 1.2-1.5" across the south. This will result in an increase in cloud cover as well as a return of rain chances across the local area. There is a low to medium (20- 60 percent) chance of rain from southern Brevard/Osceola southward today, with the greatest potential for rain occurring across the Treasure Coast and around Lake Okeechobee into early afternoon. There remains a low (20 percent) chance of lightning storms mainly across the Treasure Coast and southern Okeechobee county today. Rain chances push offshore late afternoon and overnight, remaining mostly dry over land areas on Monday. The next cold front will push across east central Florida this evening into tonight. This will be a dry frontal passage, with no mentionable rain chances through Monday. However, winds will increase across the local area tonight into Monday as the axis of the strong high pressure builds over the Florida peninsula, tightening the pressure gradient and resulting in a period of windy conditions (especially along the coast). North to northwest winds at 5-10 mph today will increase to 15-25 mph across the interior and 20- 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph possible along the coast tonight into Monday with winds shifting north to northeast on Monday. A Wind Advisory has been issued along the coast starting at 7pm tonight. The high pressure will steadily weaken on Monday, which will allow the pressure gradient to loosen somewhat over the local area. This will result in the north to northeast winds decreasing, however, they will remain breezy/gusty especially along the coast. These strong winds will also result in rough, pounding surf and minor beach erosion tonight into Monday. Breaking waves of 7-9 FT are forecast, briefly up to 10 FT along the Volusia coast. Thus, a High Surf Advisory has also been issued. The high tide of most concern will be early Monday between 4am-5am. A High risk of rip currents goes into effect later this afternoon from Cape Canaveral northward, spreading to all the coast Monday. Temperatures will be above normal on today before becoming noticeably cooler behind the front on Monday. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s today before dropping to low to mid 60s across the north and upper 60s to low 70s across the south on Monday. Overnight lows will range from mid to upper 40s across the far north to low 60s across the far south tonight, and range from low to mid 40s across the far north and near 60 degrees across the far south on Monday night. Tuesday-Thursday... A weakening high pressure across the Deep South will move into GA early on Tuesday before gradually shifting eastward, moving offshore into the Atlantic ocean by Thursday. The trailing axis will remain over the Florida Peninsula through the time period. This will result in north to northeast winds turning easterly on Tuesday at 5-10 mph as the high settles into the Deep South before eventually veering east to southeast Wednesday evening and continuing through Thursday as the high moves offshore. Mostly dry conditions arRest of Today-Monday... The upper level low pressure over the Great Plains will move into the Great Lakes region today before deepening and moving eastward towards Maine through Monday. At the surface, a strong high pressure centered over the Midwest will shift southward into the Deep South on Monday with the axis building over the Florida peninsula. The frontal boundary across South Florida will lift northward as a warm front today, increasing the moisture across the southern portions of the CWA. Forecast PW values will range from 1.0-1.1" across the north to 1.2-1.5" across the south. This will result in an increase in cloud cover as well as a return of rain chances across the local area. There is a low to medium (20- 60 percent) chance of rain from southern Brevard/Osceola southward today, with the greatest potential for rain occurring across the Treasure Coast and around Lake Okeechobee into early afternoon. There remains a low (20 percent) chance of lightning storms mainly across the Treasure Coast and southern Okeechobee county today. Rain chances push offshore late afternoon and overnight, remaining mostly dry over land areas on Monday. The next cold front will push across east central Florida this evening into tonight. This will be a dry frontal passage, with no mentionable rain chances through Monday. However, winds will increase across the local area tonight into Monday as the axis of the strong high pressure builds over the Florida peninsula, tightening the pressure gradient and resulting in a period of windy conditions (especially along the coast). North to northwest winds at 5-10 mph today will increase to 15-25 mph across the interior and 20- 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph possible along the coast tonight into Monday with winds shifting north to northeast on Monday. A Wind Advisory has been issued along the coast starting at 7pm tonight. The high pressure will steadily weaken on Monday, which will allow the pressure gradient to loosen somewhat over the local area. This will result in the north to northeast winds decreasing, however, they will remain breezy/gusty especially along the coast. These strong winds will also result in rough, pounding surf and minor beach erosion tonight into Monday. Breaking waves of 7-9 FT are forecast, briefly up to 10 FT along the Volusia coast. Thus, a High Surf Advisory has also been issued. The high tide of most concern will be early Monday between 4am-5am. A High risk of rip currents goes into effect later this afternoon from Cape Canaveral northward, spreading to all the coast Monday. Temperatures will be above normal on today before becoming noticeably cooler behind the front on Monday. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s today before dropping to low to mid 60s across the north and upper 60s to low 70s across the south on Monday. Overnight lows will range from mid to upper 40s across the far north to low 60s across the far south tonight, and range from low to mid 40s across the far north and near 60 degrees across the far south on Monday night. Tuesday-Thursday... A weakening high pressure across the Deep South will move into GA early on Tuesday before gradually shifting eastward, moving offshore into the Atlantic ocean by Thursday. The trailing axis will remain over the Florida Peninsula through the time period. This will result in north to northeast winds turning easterly on Tuesday at 5-10 mph as the high settles into the Deep South before eventually veering east to southeast Wednesday evening and continuing through Thursday as the high moves offshore. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through Wednesday, with no mentionable rain chances over land areas through that time. Isolated to scattered showers will continue to be possible over the Atlantic waters however. Rain chances return to land areas on Thursday, with isolated showers forecast along the immediate coast of the Treasure Coast. Temperatures will be on a slight warming trend into late week, going from seasonable/slightly below normal to above normal by Thursday. Afternoon highs will generally be in the low 70s on Tuesday, mid 70s on Wednesday, and upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s Tuesday night, mid to upper 50s on Wednesday night, and upper 50s to low 60s on Thursday night. Friday-Saturday...An upper level trough will push into the eastern US on Friday and out into the Atlantic on Saturday. The next cold front is forecast to approach Friday, first dropping into north Florida before reaching the far northern part of the CWA Friday night/early Saturday morning, then pushing through the rest of the CWA throughout the day on Saturday. North to northwest winds at 5-10 mph on Friday will veer northeast to east on Saturday behind the front. The frontal passage Friday night through Saturday looks to be mostly dry, with no mentionable rain chances over land areas. Isolated showers will be possible ahead of the front on Friday, with a low (20 percent) chance of showers occurring along the immediate coast of the Treasure Coast. Temperatures will not change much behind the front, with afternoon highs forecast to be in the upper 70s to low 80s on both Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s on and Friday night, and range from upper 50s to low 60s across the north to low to mid 60s across the south. e forecast through Wednesday, with no mentionable rain chances over land areas through that time. Isolated to scattered showers will continue to be possible over the Atlantic waters however. Rain chances return to land areas on Thursday, with isolated showers forecast along the immediate coast of the Treasure Coast. Temperatures will be on a slight warming trend into late week, going from seasonable/slightly below normal to above normal by Thursday. Afternoon highs will generally be in the low 70s on Tuesday, mid 70s on Wednesday, and upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s Tuesday night, mid to upper 50s on Wednesday night, and upper 50s to low 60s on Thursday night. Friday-Saturday...An upper level trough will push into the eastern US on Friday and out into the Atlantic on Saturday. The next cold front is forecast to approach Friday, first dropping into north Florida before reaching the far northern part of the CWA Friday night/early Saturday morning, then pushing through the rest of the CWA throughout the day on Saturday. North to northwest winds at 5-10 mph on Friday will veer northeast to east on Saturday behind the front. The frontal passage Friday night through Saturday looks to be mostly dry, with no mentionable rain chances over land areas. Isolated showers will be possible ahead of the front on Friday, with a low (20 percent) chance of showers occurring along the immediate coast of the Treasure Coast. Temperatures will not change much behind the front, with afternoon highs forecast to be in the upper 70s to low 80s on both Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s on and Friday night, and range from upper 50s to low 60s across the north to low to mid 60s across the south. && .MARINE... Issued at 229 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Today-Thursday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Conditions will begin to deteriorate this afternoon and especially this evening/overnight as strong high pressure builds over the area behind a cold front, tightening the pressure gradient over the local area. North winds increase 20-25 knots by sunset across the northern (Volusia) waters will overspread the remainder of our coastal waters this evening with rapidly building seas especially in the Gulf Stream. A Gale Warning has been posted for the Volusia Atlantic waters for frequent gusts to gale force (34 knots) while solid Small Craft Advisory conditions will exist elsewhere with occasional gusts to gale force possible. Seas will build rapidly to 13 FT in the Gulf Stream tonight into Monday with 7-10 FT nearshore. The high pressure will weaken as it settles into the SE US Monday so wind speeds will drop below 20 knots Mon aftn but seas will be slower to subside given the NE wind component. The high will push seaward through mid week and winds will veer east then southeast in response and the pressure gradient supporting 10-14 knots. It will take a little while for seas to subside below 7 FT in the Gulf Stream so have extended the SCA there slightly. But once we lose the north wind component, seas will subside below 6 FT Tuesday night and below 5 FT Wednesday. Seas nearshore will be 3 FT Wednesday- Thursday as winds develop a SE component. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 100 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Mainly VFR with occasional MVFR CIGs at VRB/FPR/SUA thru 00z, then prolonged MVFR CIGs quickly arrive from north to south tonight. A few SHRA cannot be ruled out at FPR/SUA for the remainder of the afternoon, also. Winds increase thru 00z but moreso after 00z Mon. as a sharp cold front brings NNE winds 12-20+ kt with gusts 20-30+ kt. Potential exists for IFR CIGs after 14z-15z from DAB to LEE on Mon. as MVFR CIGs and breezy to gusty NE winds continue areawide, subsiding by 23z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 50 62 50 69 / 0 10 10 0 MCO 53 64 50 71 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 56 67 55 71 / 10 10 10 0 VRB 59 69 55 73 / 20 10 10 10 LEE 45 62 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 50 63 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 50 63 49 71 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 59 69 55 73 / 20 10 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747. High Surf Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ141-154- 159-164-347-447-647-747. AM...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ550-570. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ552. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ555-575. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ572. && $$ |
| #1254478 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:21 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 204 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Arctic air moves in behind a cold front this evening into tonight, and provides a cold start to the week. The very cold temperatures do quickly give way to relatively milder temperatures for the middle to end of this week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 200 PM EST Sunday... - Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect for the entire area for bitterly cold temps tonight/Monday morning with wind chills in the single digits. - There is a slight chance for a few bay effect snow showers on the Virginia Eastern Shore this evening-tonight. A strong upper trough continues to amplify over the eastern CONUS with an Arctic front now well to our south (though the strongest CAA arrives this evening). The snow has ended, with totals of 1 to locally 2 inches from Caroline County, VA to the Lower MD Eastern Shore, with only a few tenths of an inch in the RIC Metro as the initial push of cold air this morning was not as strong as a lot of the models showed. Temperatures are only in the lower-mid 30s, with upper 20s at Cambridge/Salisbury. NW winds are gusting to 30-40 mph at this hour. The strongest push of CAA arrives this evening, with much colder and drier air filtering in tonight. Winds will peak during the evening, with gusts of 30-45 mph (locally 45-50 mph on the VA Eastern Shore and in VA Beach/Eastern Currituck where Wind Advisories remain in effect). Mostly clear for the vast majority of the area tonight with lows in the mid teens for inland portions of the area and upper teens/around 20F at the coast. Wind Chills will be in the single digits across the entire FA. The Cold Weather Advisory issued remains unchanged since the initial issuance yesterday. Lastly, still can`t rule out a few bay effect snow showers on the VA Eastern Shore between 7 PM-1 AM, which would only amount to a few tenths of an inch of accumulation in a high-end scenario. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 PM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Chilly and dry Monday and Monday night with a slow moderating trend beginning on Tuesday. Highs should reach the 50s by Wednesday. Strong Arctic high pressure behind the cold front builds into the area Monday as the upper trough moves well offshore. It will be pretty chilly on Monday with highs only in the mid 30s. The good news is that it will be mostly sunny and much less windy with the high overhead. The high shifts to our S or SE by Monday night, allowing the low-level flow to become light out of the south. Lows Monday night will be in the low to mid 20s for most, but some of the colder rural spots could see the upper teens. Temperatures start to moderate on Tuesday under mostly sunny skies. Forecast highs are in the upper 30s in the far NE and low to mid 40s elsewhere. Lows Tuesday night will be in the mid to upper 20s. The moderating trend continues on Wednesday (with dry wx expected) as the high shifts well offshore, upper heights rise, and the flow aloft becomes W-WSW. Highs on Wednesday will be in the lower-mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Much warmer temperatures (compared to the first half of December) continue on Thursday. - Another (weaker) cold front brings a good chance for showers Thursday night. Strong low pressure tracks well to our north Thursday night into Friday morning, which will drag another cold front through the area. Rather mild (especially considering how cold it has been) on Thursday with highs potentially reaching the lower-mid 60s over portions of the area. There is a good chance for showers along and ahead of the cold front Thursday evening into early Friday morning, and it looks like the area could see a widespread 0.25-0.5" of rain. In fact, the 12z global ensembles have high (80%+) probs of 0.1" and better than 50% probs for at least 0.25" of rain. Forecast highs on Fri are still in the 50s, but drop back off to around average by Saturday as high pressure returns. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1250 PM EST Sunday... The Arctic cold front is now south of the terminals and precipitation will exit ECG/ORF within the next hour or two at most. Dry/VFR conditions are expected at all of the terminals from late this aftn through the rest of the 18z/14 TAF period. Skies become clear tonight. Strong NW winds (15-20 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt) will continue through the evening before gradually subsiding tonight-Monday as high pressure returns. VFR conditions will prevail from Monday through Wednesday. The next chance of sub-VFR conditions is Thursday night-Friday AM due to showers ahead of a cold front. && .MARINE... As of 200 PM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Gale Warnings are in effect for all waters through Monday morning due to the strong northwest winds. - Light freezing spray is also possible tonight due to the cold air temperatures and strong winds. - Generally lighter winds are expected later Monday through the first part of Thursday, though occasional SCA conditions are possible in the Chesapeake Bay. Winds rapidly increased across the local waters earlier this morning as a cold front moved through. As of this afternoon, winds remain elevated to 25-35 kt with gusts up to around 40 kt. Given the NNW wind direction, wind speeds are highest on the eastern shore of the Chesapeake Bay and over the ocean. Regardless, water conditions are chaotic and rough areawide and boaters should utilize extreme caution and/or consider rescheduling travel. Later this evening, a very strong push of cold air advection (with 850 mb temps as low as -20 C) overspreads the waters, with peak winds expected during this timeframe (roughly from 22z/5 PM today through 06z/1 AM Mon morning). The current forecast shows peak winds of 30-35 kt (locally higher for the coastal waters S of Cape Charles), with wind gusts up to 45 kt. Some model guidance also suggests intermittent wind gusts to low-end storm force (45-50 kt) for a brief period after 00z/7 PM. Gale Warnings are in effect for all marine zones through early Monday morning, though winds will begin trending down as we approach daybreak. Lastly, light freezing spray is possible tonight as strong winds coincide with very cold air temperatures overspreading the area. However, water temperatures in the 40s to around 50 F should preclude moderate or heavy freezing spray. Elevated NNW/NW winds continue through the rest of Monday morning and SCAs will be needed once the Gale headlines drop off. High pressure then quickly advances in by the later afternoon and evening hours of Monday and winds should become sub-SCA by this time. As winds shift to the SW late Monday night, a brief uptick in wind speeds (from a transient low-level jet) could necessitate marginal SCA headlines in the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River. With higher criteria on the ocean, SCAs seem quite unlikely at this time. Beyond Monday night, much lighter winds make a return for Tuesday, followed by another increase in SW winds Tuesday night and Wednesday. Another strong cold front is forecast to approach the region Thursday, crossing the waters early Friday. SCAs are likely in both the pre-frontal SW wind and post-fostal NW wind regimes Thursday night/Friday, with Gales possible in the northern coastal waters. Seas continue increasing into tonight, peaking at 6-10 ft (highest offshore and S of Cape Charles). Waves up to 5-6 ft are likely in the Chesapeake Bay, with 3-5 ft waves in the lower James River and 2- 3 ft waves in the upper rivers and Currituck Sound. Seas should subside below 5 ft by later Monday given the decreasing (and offshore) wind direction. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for MDZ021>025. NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for NCZ102. VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100- 509>525. Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for VAZ098>100. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ630>638-650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ |
| #1254477 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 155 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A brief shot of arctic air follows a departing low pressure tonight into Monday, with wind chill values dropping to between 0 to 10 below. Cold weather continues Monday night into Tuesday but with much lighter winds. A warming trend begins Wednesday and especially by Thursday when high temperatures of 50+ are possible. Unseasonably mild temperatures will be accompanied by a round of showers sometime later Thursday into early Friday with perhaps a period of strong southerly winds and heavy rain. A brief shot of much colder weather with another period of strong winds possible later Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages... * Accumulating snow ends into this evening, confined mostly to southeast MA this afternoon. * Turning colder tonight. Lows in the single digits and teens. Minimum wind chill values between 0 to 10 below. A few locations towards NW MA could see wind chill values as low as 20 below. Accumulating snow had largely ended across most of RI and portions of southeast MA. As such, canceled a portion of the Winter Weather Advisory already. Will monitor the progress of the snowfall this afternoon, and perhaps cancel more of the remaining Advisory towards 4 PM. Otherwise, it will still expire at 7 PM this evening. As of this writing, the heaviest snow band extended from between the Vineyard and Nantucket northeast across the outer Cape. The outer Cape is where additional accumulating snow is possible. Still expecting snowfall to diminish from NW to SE this afternoon. Will continue the Winter Weather Advisories as they are for now. Will likely be able to cancel some of these advisories prior to the 7 PM expiration time. Once the snowfall ends, just turning colder with clearing skies and gusts WNW winds overnight. Considered a Cold Weather Advisory towards the Berkshires, but thinking the colder conditions will not be widespread enough to warrant a headline. This will need to be monitored this evening. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages... * Gusty WNW winds through Monday * Dry weather with below normal temperatures A sprawling high pressure over the central USA will maintain dry and cold conditions across southern New England into Monday night. Some sunshine to start the day, with increasing clouds during the afternoon. Mostly cloudy skies expected Monday night, but not much in the way of precipitation. There is a low chance for a stray snow shower from the Great Lakes to make it into the Berkshires Monday Night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Messages... * Dry & chilly Tue. Highs mainly in the lower to middle 30s * Turning milder Wed with continued dry weather & highs into the 40s * Showers with heavy rain & potential briefly strong southerly wind gusts later Thu into early Fri with unseasonably mild temps * Brief shot of much colder temps returns behind the front later Fri into Sat with another round of strong winds possible Details... Tuesday... Still chilly Tue, but with light winds. Highs on Tue will range from the upper 20s in the highest terrain to mainly the lower to middle 30s elsewhere. Wednesday... The developing -PNA and high pressure to our south sliding further east will allow for the beginning of a pattern change and milder temperatures. While it will remain dry on Wed, gusty southwest winds developing will push high temperatures well into the 40s. Thursday into Friday morning... Strong shortwave energy over the northern plains will move eastward into the Great Lakes. As this happens, strong surface low pressure perhaps sub 980 mb will pass well to our north across Quebec. Given the potential strength of the surface low pressure system...the long range guidance is indicating a strong southerly LLJ nearly 3 standard deviations outside climatology. Not only will this bring up unseasonably mild temperatures and Pwats exceeding 1 inch. This will combined with strong forcing ahead of the cold front and bring showers with perhaps brief heavy rain sometime later Thu into Fri. In addition...given the magnitude of the southerly LLJ we will have to watch for a brief period for strong surface wind gusts if the inversion is able to mix out. It is way too early to assess that...but depending on the timing temperatures may rise well into the 50s Thu night/early Fri and may even flirt with 60 degrees. If we are able to get mild enough...the potential for a period of strong winds to be realized will increase. Again...way too early to say much more than that but something to watch in the coming days. Later Friday into Saturday... Briefly turning much colder later Friday into Saturday behind the cold front. Mainly dry weather expected, but another period of strong winds this time from the west is possible immediately behind the cold front. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight...High Confidence MVFR-IFR and even brief LIFR conditions are expected in areas towards the Cape and Islands in ocean effect snow showers. This activity should dissipate just after midnight. Otherwise, WNW wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots with a few gusts near 30 knots across the high terrain and near the coast develop. Monday...High Confidence Mainly VFR with NW gusts up to 30 knots. A few fair-weather clouds early, but should be VFR. VFR CIGS developing during the afternoon. Monday Night...High Confidence. VFR CIGS. Lighter W winds. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in timing. Little additional accumulation, although some very light snow possible before 21Z. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: VFR. Tuesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. RA likely. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. RA likely. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Monday Night...High confidence. Winds quickly increase to gales this evening as colder air arrives and continues into Monday. Expecting wind gusts between 35-40 kt later this evening into Monday afternoon. Areas of very light freezing spray possible tonight and Monday. Elsewhere, Small Craft Advisory conditions expected in Narragansett Bay and Boston Harbor. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Thursday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with areas of gusts up to 45 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely. Friday: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MAZ020>024. RI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for RIZ008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Monday for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. && $$ |
| #1254476 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1254 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Freezing temperatures are expected for a good part of SE TX overnight. Hazardous marine conditions continue, but will begin to improve late tonight. - Gradual warm-up into midweek. - Chances for scattered showers return to the forecast late Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Next front penciled in for Thursday afternoon/night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1252 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 In the wake of last night`s cold front, temperatures are between 15-30 degrees colder than what we had this time yesterday. Skies will clear from the east/northeast for the remainder of the day and tonight and winds will gradually diminish. Combination of both should allow for freezing overnight lows for a good part of SE Tx tonight. The Freeze Watch previously in effect for locations that haven`t received their first winter freeze has been converted to a Freeze Warning. Also threw in Wharton and northern Brazoria Counties where guidance trended a touch lower with temps. Kept Galveston County out for now, as a NE wind trajectory off the warmer bay should keep temps a few degrees above the freezing mark (but we`ll monitor trends). Gradual warm-up will begin Monday as cold high pressure area starts moving further to our east and winds swing back around to a e/se direction off the Gulf. Highs/lows will transition upward on a daily basis and back into the 70s/50s by midweek. Mid-upper trof will pass across the state Tue night-Wednesday night. We should see enough of a moisture return by then for some scattered shower and/or isolated thunderstorm development. The next cold front, Pacific in origin and not nearly impressive as the current one, is penciled in for Thursday afternoon & evening followed by a quick return of the warm muggies heading into next weekend. 47 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 451 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 A cold front has moved through the region ushering in gusty north to northeasterly winds that will continue through this afternoon. Sustained winds of 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt north of I-10, and up to 30-35kt possible south of I-10. Winds gradually lower by this evening, but GLS may have elevated winds near 15-20kt into late tonight. IFR to MVFR conditions will continue through the morning hours with CIGs around 700-1500ft through the mid morning, then up to 2500-3000ft by the early afternoon. Skies will clear from north to south with area-wide VFR conditions expected by 20z. VFR conditions will then prevail through Monday afternoon. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1253 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Moderate-strong north to northeast winds 20 to 35 knots and elevated seas will continue into the overnight hours before slowly diminishing after midnight. Small Craft Advsy remains in effect for the bays, and will transition the Gale Warning in the Gulf back down to a SCA later this evening once gusts begin to subside. Continued improvement is anticipated Monday. Winds will gradually veer around to the east and southeast as high pressure tracks away from the region. Light to moderate onshore flow will then prevail through Thursday. We will need to be on the lookout for some sea fog development Wednesday and Thursday in between bouts of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The next front is forecast to push off the coast Thursday night. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 30 54 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 32 54 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 38 54 48 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for TXZ178-195>200-210>214-226-227-237-300-313. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ214-436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday for GMZ330-335. Gale Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-355-370-375. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ350-355-370-375. && $$ |
| #1254475 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 135 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Low chances (20 to 30%) for showers will continue through the overnight and into Monday night as moisture lingers across the area. -Cold front moving through tonight will promote freshening northerly breezes. Small Craft Advisories will be needed for most if not all, of our local waters late tonight into early Monday morning. -As high pressure builds over the region mid-week, mild, mostly dry conditions will be expected with gentle to moderate breezes. && .MARINE... Issued at 135 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 The coastal waters surrounding the Florida Keys remain in a col this afternoon with light to gentle northerly breezes. A cold front is poised to sweep through during the overnight hours. In the wake of the frontal passage, expect breezes to freshen to moderate to fresh breezes around and after midnight. Breezes will further freshen and fresh to strong breezes could sneak in before dawn Monday. Small Craft Advisory conditions likely will occur in the Outer Gulf waters tonight and spread across the remaining waters towards dawn and during the morning on Monday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 135 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 VFR conditions expected ahead of the front that will move through later tonight. Light northerly winds this afternoon will gradually freshen ahead of the frontal passage. Expect winds to then sharply freshen after midnight and towards dawn Monday. A crosswind magnitude of 20 to 25 knots is likely, especially after 09Z/15th. In addition, MVFR CIGs could develop in the wake of the front but confidence is low at this time but will a deck at FL020. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 457 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Weather conditions along the island chain have essentially plateaued during the overnight shift as persistent, but light, showers lingered. MRMS estimates rainfall totals over the past six hours have been up to a third of an inch across our island communities, but pockets of heavier showers over the distant Florida Straits may have produced approximately 3 to 5 inches. If those showers had moved over any portion of the Keys, this would have been a slam dunk for flooding. Fortunately, we do not need flood products for our local sea life. Automated observations are reporting temperatures in the lower 70s with dew points only a few degrees behind. While not terrible, the moisture is noticeable in the air when stepping outside. Upper level support is still in place to support morning showers, but this support will gradually be pushed away today as troughing digs into the area. While this does mean that showers will gradually diminish, there is a tradeoff. Breezes will freshen drastically in the wake of the front, and Small Craft Advisories may be needed as early as tonight. The northerly component to our winds will also keep temperatures on the cooler side, and highs over the next couple of days will reach the upper 70s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. High pressure building in will keep weather fairly benign over the middle of the week, and ensemble guidance suggests the next opportunity for meaningful rainfall may not be until the weekend. Even then, the agreement among ensemble members isn`t great with respect to timing and rainfall amounts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 68 78 68 77 / 20 20 20 10 Marathon 68 75 68 76 / 20 30 20 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1254473 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 237 PM AST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 237 PM AST Sun Dec 14 2025 * Choppy to rough seas are expected to continue across the offshore Atlantic waters through at least early Monday morning. * Up to a moderate risk of rip currents tonight, with a northwesterly swell forecast to arrive by midweek and deteriorate conditions. * A dry and stable air mass will continue to move over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands this afternoon and early tonight, limiting shower activity. * The approach of a frontal system and its associated upper-level trough over the western Atlantic will promote more unstable and wet conditions during the first half of the workweek. && .Short Term(This evening through Tuesday)... Issued at 237 PM AST Sun Dec 14 2025 Fair weather prevailed today, as a dry and stable air mass remained over the islands. Current satellite derived precipitable water (PWAT) values indicate between 1 to 1.3 inches, below seasonal values. ESE steering flow helped promote normal to slightly above normal 925 mb temperatures. Highs reached the mid to upper 80s, with some stations reporting highs in the low 90s, across coastal and urban areas. Higher elevations of Puerto Rico saw maximum temperatures from the 70s to around 80. Several coastal official and unofficial stations reported sustained winds up to 13 to 18 mph with higher gusts around 19 to 28 mph. Only limited shower development is possible this afternoon and early tonight over the islands. Patchy fog will once again return over areas of the interior. The surface high over the central to western Atlantic, promoting the above mentioned steering flow, will continue gradually moving eastward as a frontal low exits the eastern U.S. Another high will then enter the western Atlantic tomorrow, leaving the islands between the two highs. This will continue to result in ESE steering flow, resulting in patches of moisture and weak surface troughs heading towards the islands tomorrow and Tuesday. PWAT values are forecast at seasonal to above seasonal levels early in the workweek as moisture continues to be steered towards the islands, a cold front and related trough are north of the region, and an induced pre-frontal trough is near the area. Current model guidance has PWAT increasing late tonight into tomorrow, helping promote a wetter pattern and shower activity over the eastern region mainly during the morning and overnight hours and, during the afternoons, western PR with a slight chance of t-storm development. 925 mb wind speeds will continue decreasing later today and tonight before gradually increasing tomorrow onwards, in general they are forecast to be lighter and at more seasonal speeds to start the workweek. 925 mb temperatures are forecast at seasonal to above seasonal values due to the ESE steering flow. && .Long Term(Wednesday through next Saturday)... Issued at 403 AM AST Sun Dec 14 2025 The inherited forecast remains on track. Instability is expected to arrive in the area on Wednesday, driven by an upper-level trough positioned along a frontal boundary north of the region. At the surface, a building high-pressure system over the western Atlantic will begin to push moisture associated with this front into the local area, promoting wetter conditions by the latter part of the week. As this surface high strengthens, winds will shift to the northeast, pushing slightly cooler air into the area. Under this pattern, frequent passing showers are expected during the morning hours across portions of eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by afternoon showers over portions of central and western Puerto Rico. During this period, precipitable water content values are expected to range from 1.6 to 1.8 inches, suggesting normal to near-above-normal values for the season. At the 500 mb level, temperatures are expected to remain around -6C; however, isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, particularly with the afternoon activity over western Puerto Rico. Furthermore, the increasing pressure gradient force driven by the strengthening high pressure will result in breezy conditions during the latter half of the week, with wind speeds sustained between 15 to 20 knots. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 237 PM AST Sun Dec 14 2025 VFR conditions are expected for the rest of today across all TAF sites. Winds from the E to SE around 10 to 15 kts thru 14/22Z, then below 7 kts thru 15/14Z across PR TAF sites. VCSH and periods of -RA across TIST and TISX during the overnight period into the morning hours, then into TJSJ, TJPS and TJBQ around 15/15-17Z onward. Expect intermittent periods of MVFR conditions due to cigs and reduced vis at times. E-SE winds form 15/14Z at around 8 to 12 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 237 PM AST Sun Dec 14 2025 A surface high-pressure system across the eastern into central Atlantic will continue to promote moderate to locally fresh east to southeast winds across the local waters tonight. Wind-driven seas are promoting hazardous marine conditions for small craft operators across the offshore Atlantic waters, where a Small Craft Advisory remain in effect at least through Monday morning. A cold front and another surface high-pressure system will move from the western Atlantic into the central Atlantic over the next few days, weakening the pressure gradient and allowing for gentle to moderate winds Monday and Tuesday. By midweek, increasing winds and a northwesterly swell will likely deteriorate marine conditions once again. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 237 PM AST Sun Dec 14 2025 Tonight, there is a moderate risk of rip currents along most beaches of the islands. This means that life-threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone, and beachgoers are encouraged to exercise caution. Early this week, a moderate risk of rip currents is expected to prevail across north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with a low risk elsewhere. Remember that even when the risk is low, life-threatening rip currents can still occur, especially near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. By midweek, beach conditions are anticipated to deteriorate again due to increasing winds and a northwesterly swell spreading across the local Atlantic waters. Stay tuned to the forecast! For specific location information, please visit weather.gov/beach/sju. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Monday for AMZ711. && $$ |
| #1254474 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1246 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1237 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 - Near to below normal temperatures in the wake of our next cold front Sunday through Tuesday - Low chances (20-40%) for showers today with the frontal passage - Gale Warning for Sunday and Sunday night across the Gulf waters && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1237 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 The cold front has cleared the coast and left breezy cooler conditions in its wake. There are some lingering showers in some spots though activity should continue to wane through the remainder of the afternoon. As the temperatures continue to drop tonight behind the front, lows are expected to get down into the 30s from the Victoria Crossroads extending to portions of the Brush Country. Much of the Victoria Crossroads will be around freezing at 33 degrees. The possibility for temperatures to dip slightly below freezing does exist though confidence at this time remains low to medium (20-45%). Will continue to monitor this possibility and may need to issue a short-fused freeze warning if confidence increases this evening. Highs tomorrow will likely hover in the upper 50s across the region with the western portions of the CWA potentially reaching 60 degrees. Looking forward to later in the week, an inverted trough will creep into the Brush Country from the south leading to showers and thunderstorms in Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. This will also be coupled with sufficient isentropic at the 295-300K levels should lead to some efficient rainfall. Otherwise, the forecast should remain quiet with a gradual warming trend following today`s front. Highs will return to the 80s by Thursday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 MVFR conditions will improve across much of the area by this evening across the region to VFR. Winds are expected to remain elevated as well through this evening. Some periods of MVFR ceilings will be possible once again this tomorrow morning mainly to the west (LRD). Elsewhere VFR conditions should prevail through the remainder of the period with light winds beginning this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1237 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Near Gale to Gale (BF 7-8) northeast winds will persist across the Gulf waters through Sunday night. As we head into Monday morning, winds will quickly relax to moderate levels (BF 4) and shift to the southeast by Monday night which will then hang around for the rest of the week. Medium (30-60%) chances for rain can be expected today with rain chances quickly tapering off this evening. Our next chance for rain will return Tuesday night into Wednesday with a medium to high (50-75%) chance for showers and thunderstorms across the Gulf waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1237 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Despite today`s cold front, relative humidity levels are expected to remain above 30% with relatively light to moderate winds, except for Sunday, where winds can gust to 25-30 mph. However, due to the relative humidity remaining above critical levels, elevated fire weather conditions will not expected through early this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 40 57 48 70 / 0 0 0 10 Victoria 33 57 41 68 / 0 0 0 10 Laredo 44 60 51 65 / 10 0 0 20 Alice 38 59 46 68 / 0 0 0 20 Rockport 42 59 50 69 / 0 0 0 10 Cotulla 41 58 48 63 / 0 0 0 20 Kingsville 39 59 47 70 / 0 0 0 20 Navy Corpus 47 59 53 70 / 0 0 0 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday for GMZ231-232-236- 237. Gale Warning until 3 AM CST Monday for GMZ250-255-270-275. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ250-255- 270-275. && $$ |
| #1254472 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 134 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 120 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 - A hard freeze is expected tonight across southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and northern Walton and Holmes Counties in Florida. A light to moderate freeze is expected elsewhere. Residents should protect people, pets, and plants across the area with pipe protection in the hard freeze area. - Wind chills in the teens to low 20s tonight into Monday morning will be hazardous to those without access to adequate warmth or protective clothing. Dress warmly in layers and check on those without access to heat. - There is a medium (40-70%) chance of another hard freeze Monday night across southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and inland parts of the Florida Panhandle. - Frequent gusts to gale force are expected over the western and southern waters through late tonight. Advisory level conditions are expected along the Forgotten and Nature Coasts. Mariners, especially those operating small craft, should remain in port or alter plans. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Monday Night) Issued at 120 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 A strong cold front is making its way through our area. As of 12 PM ET, temperatures range from the upper 40s in southeast Alabama to the mid 70s in the southeast Big Bend. Temperatures will fall for the remainder of the day as an arctic air mass filters in. Lows tonight will fall into the mid to upper 20s away from the coast and lower 30s along the beaches outside of the St. Joseph Peninsula and St. George Island. A few of our normally colder spots in the Wiregrass could dip into the lower 20s. The winds will still be elevated tonight around 10 mph, which will make it feel a good bit colder. Wind chills in the morning could be in the mid to upper teens for a good chunk of the area as you make your way to work or school. As far as hazards go for tonight, a Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for the entire area for wind chills that area hazardous to those without adequate warmth (16-25 in FL, 11-20 in AL & GA). A Freeze Warning is in effect for the threat of a hard freeze for our AL & GA counties as well as northern Walton and Holmes counties in FL. A Freeze Warning is also in effect for the Emerald Coast and coastal Franklin County for a freeze, since these areas have not had a widespread freeze yet this cold season. Monday will be a very cold day. Most areas won`t get out of the 40s except the southeast Big Bend. There will still be a breeze too, so it will feel like the upper 30s to mid 40s for a good portion of the day. For Monday night, high pressure moves over the southeast US, but may not be positioned the best for radiational cooling. Another wrinkle is the return of some moisture from the east. This may help bring in some clouds and warmer temperatures just above the surface. These may help limit just how cold we get, especially for the eastern Big Bend and Valdosta metro. At this point, did not make any changes to the Freeze Watch for Monday night regarding hard freeze potential given uncertainty. Expect lows in the mid 20s for much of southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the inland Florida Panhandle with upper 20s to mid 30s along the coast and into the FL Big Bend. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 120 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 This cold blast is relatively short lived with a quick shot at ridging on Tuesday. Highs return to the 50s and 60s with lows Tuesday night mostly in the mid 30s to lower 40s. A shortwave approaches the area Wednesday and lingers into Thursday before a stronger trough picks it up. This will help increase moisture again, bringing us a low-end chance for showers, mostly late Wednesday into Thursday. Currently not anticipating severe weather or heavy rainfall with this system. Otherwise, temperatures will returns to the 60s and 70s for highs and 40s and 50s for lows to round out the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 120 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 MVFR conditions with low ceilings are lingering but these should quickly improve to VFR over the next 3 to 4 hours as drier air filters in from the north. Main aviation hazards this afternoon and evening will be stiff northerly winds around 15 to 20 knots with frequent 25 knot gusts. Gusts drop off after 00z with north winds becoming northeasterly and decreasing into Monday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 120 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 A strong cold front is moving through the marine area this afternoon with frequent northerly gale force gusts likely through late tonight over the western and southern waters. Advisory level conditions are expected along the Forgotten and Nature Coasts in Apalachee Bay. Seas will build to 5 to 8 feet with the increase in winds. Winds subside through the day Monday and especially into Monday night as high pressure moves to the north of the marine area. Gentle easterly winds will continue through Wednesday before breezes become moderate out of the southeast on Thursday ahead of the next approaching cold front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 120 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 A strong cold front is moving through the area this afternoon with strong northwesterly winds in its wake. Significantly drier air moves in with min RH values in the upper teens to low 20s for much of the FL Panhandle into southeast AL and southwest GA. Northeasterly transport winds will start around 20 mph Monday morning, subsiding to 10 mph in the afternoon. Mixing heights will be low, which will keep dispersions in the fair to good range. Moisture begins to increase on Tuesday, but near critical RH is still possible across southeast Alabama and central GA. Winds will be light out of the east to southeast Tuesday, leading to low dispersions for much of the area. Fair dispersions are anticipated Wednesday with a slight increase in southeasterly transport winds up to 10 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 120 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Little to no rainfall is expected for the next 7 days, with ongoing severe and extreme drought conditions persisting. Most areas will see around a quarter of an inch from the next system late in the week with reasonable high-end totals of 0.75-1.00 inch. For more information on local impacts from drought, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 65 28 47 29 / 10 0 0 0 Panama City 67 30 49 32 / 10 0 0 0 Dothan 61 24 45 25 / 10 0 0 0 Albany 61 24 45 22 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 65 26 46 26 / 10 0 0 0 Cross City 74 31 54 33 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 67 32 50 38 / 10 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114- 115-118-127-128-134-326-426. Freeze Warning from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ Monday for FLZ007-009-108-112-114-115. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for FLZ007-009>011-013. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ114. GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Monday for GAZ120>131- 142>148-155>161. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161. AL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for ALZ065>069. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Monday for ALZ065>069. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for ALZ065>069. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for GMZ730-755-765. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday for GMZ735. Gale Warning until 3 AM CST Monday for GMZ751-752-770-772. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ to 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ Monday for GMZ751-752-770-772-775. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for GMZ775. && $$ |
| #1254471 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 127 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front will move through later today, bringing cooler and drier conditions for the start of the work week. - Hazardous marine conditions expected tonight through Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 118 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Broad troughing remains across the eastern part of the country this afternoon while a surface frontal boundary approaches north Florida. This boundary will cross over the region later today, with gusty north to northeast winds taking hold as strong high pressure builds over the southeast. This will usher a cooler and drier air mass over the state, with low temperatures on Monday nearing freezing for parts of Levy County and 40s and 50s elsewhere. Additionally, the gusty winds will remain tonight, so wind chill values will be several degrees lower. The rest of the day will be pleasant but cool, with highs topping out in the upper 50s north to lower 70s south. High pressure will quickly shift eastward, allowing winds to turn more easterly and bringing a warming trend through most of next week. Rain chances remain low overall, with the next chance coming next Friday into Saturday as another frontal boundary moves over the region. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 118 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds increase and are expected to gust to around 20-25 knots or so through tonight for all sites before slowly diminishing late tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 118 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Small Craft Advisories are in effect starting this afternoon/evening and continuing through midday Monday as winds increase out of the north to northeast following a cold front. Conditions will start to improve Monday afternoon and no other headlines are expected Tuesday through the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 118 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 A cold front will move through the region later today and tonight, bringing cooler and drier air over the region for the next couple of days. Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels, however, so there are no Red Flag concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 51 67 50 73 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 56 73 55 77 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 51 66 48 73 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 52 70 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 41 63 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 54 67 55 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 PM EST this evening through Monday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
| #1254470 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1226 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1216 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 * Hazardous marine and coastal conditions persist through Monday in response to a cold front. * Gusty winds and near to below average temperatures today and Monday. * Warmer than normal temperatures and mainly rain-free weather will prevail through next week, with a chance of showers Tuesday/Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1216 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 A cold front has worked its way across Deep South Texas this morning, leaving cooler temperatures, gusty winds, showers, and coastal hazards in its wake. Showers against the front are currently moving past the Rio Grande River, and will continue to move south of the region through the afternoon. Dry air behind the front will keep rain chances low for late Sunday afternoon onwards, but an isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out. Gusty northerly winds from 15-25 mph gusting 20 to around 40 mph will continue through the afternoon, beginning to lessen overnight. Stronger, gustier winds will be nearer the coast. Coastal hazards behind the cold front include a Coastal Flood Statement, in effect from 12 PM Sunday to midnight, a High Surf Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 6 AM Monday, and a High Risk of Rip Currents through 6 PM Monday. Despite astronomically low tides and a waning crescent moon, strong northerly winds behind the front will build seas and may cause narrow beaches and runup. Temporary relief in temperatures following cold fropa, with near to just below average temps through Monday. High temperatures were reached this morning as cold air advection begins to drain cooler air into the CWA, dropping temperatures through the overnight. Monday morning low temperatures in the 40s, 50s along the immediate coast and RGV. Mostly cloudy skies Monday morning begin to break up through the afternoon, with high temperatures in the 60s. Dry air behind the front will keep rain chances low (20% or less) through Tuesday, when southeasterly flow returns moisture into the atmosphere. An approaching disturbance midweek will elevate rain chances Tuesday night through Wednesday - moderate along the coast and low inland. In the latter half of the week, a zonal synoptic setup is expected to dominate, leaving benign weather and a chance for warm temperatures to rise to above average. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 A cold front passing over the region is bringing scattered showers and IFR ceilings to all sites. Low cigs persist overnight, primarily leaving IFR to MVFR conditions. Northerly winds will become gusty, around 30-35 kts, following frontal passage by early this afternoon. Gusty winds begin to lessen by Monday morning. Showers will dry out behind the front with an isolated shower or two possible into the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1216 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Unfavorable marine conditions are in place behind a cold front passage Sunday morning. Strong to near gale northerly winds with gusts to gale force will continue Sunday afternoon and ahead of sunrise Monday. Seas build to rough Sunday afternoon and persist overnight, decreasing during Monday. Moderate winds turn southeasterly Tuesday and continue through much of the week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms diminish Sunday evening as dry air enters behind the front. Low chances of rain continue until Tuesday evening, when medium to high (40 to 70 percent) chances return through Wednesday. Favorable conditions to persist Tuesday through late week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 50 66 56 76 / 20 10 0 20 HARLINGEN 47 64 52 75 / 10 0 0 10 MCALLEN 50 65 55 73 / 20 0 0 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 47 64 51 71 / 10 0 0 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 59 65 61 73 / 30 10 0 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 51 65 55 76 / 20 0 0 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for TXZ451-454- 455. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ130-132-135. Gale Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ150-155-170-175. && $$ |
| #1254469 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 112 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring very cold temperatures through Monday night. Temperatures will then gradually warm up Tuesday and Wednesday with another system moving across late in the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Once clouds break out in the next couple of hours, expect mainly clear/sunny skies through the period with cold temperatures as arctic high pressure builds into the area. A cold weather advisory is up for tonight into Monday with wind chill values below 10 degrees expected by late evening. Winds should abate enough that wind chills will be above cold weather advisory criteria by 9 AM Monday. Lows tonight will fall to the mid to upper teens with highs Monday from 35 to 40. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Quiet and cold conditions will be in place through the short term (mid week) period. The area of surface high pressure will drift overhead breaking down and drifting offshore as a warming southwest flow develops. Lows Tuesday AM are in the lower 20s but wouldn`t be surprised at some lower values in the traditionally cooler areas. Highs will approach 50 perhaps just a bit over southern areas Tuesday followed by more reasonable lows in the lower 30s Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A somewhat fast moving system will bring pops to the area on and around Thursday in the fast moving zonal flow aloft. Good chance values reside across the area with even a few likely stamps showing up with the frontal passage late Thursday evening. That`s about it for pops for the extended period. As for temperatures expect slightly warmer values early on trending downward in time behind the aforementioned front. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the valid taf period. Gusty N to NW winds will slowly diminish after sunset with light N winds expected Monday. Extended Forecast...Predominantly VFR through the extended period. && .MARINE... Through Monday... N to NW winds at 20 to 30 KT with gusts of 35 to 40 KT are expected into tonight. Winds will diminish to 10 to 15 KT north and 15 to 20 KT south by Monday afternoon. Seas will peak at 5 to 7 FT overnight into Monday before subsiding to 3 to 6 FT during Monday. Monday Night through Friday... Winds and seas will dramatically decrease from the values the strong cold air advection will have led to. By Monday evening west winds dropping to single digits will be in place. In time the flow will become south to southwest near ten knots. Very late in the period wind speeds increase ahead of the next system moving across. Significant seas will be 1-3 feet increasing very late coinciding with the increase in winds. && .CLIMATE... Record Low Temps for Dec 15: KILM: 17 / 2010 KLBT: 13 / 2010 KCRE: 17 / 1944 KFLO: 13 / 2010 Record Low High Temps for Dec 15: KILM: 34 / 1958 KLBT: 37 / 1949 KCRE: 40 / 2010 KFLO: 35 / 1958 && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. SC...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1254468 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 112 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 333 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 - Cold front will cross the area this afternoon and evening and bring windy conditions tonight along the coast where a Wind Advisory has been posted. Breezy/gusty north winds over the interior during the night. - Boating conditions will rapidly deteriorate late today across the Volusia waters where a Gale Warning will go into effect. These strong north winds will then quickly overspread all the waters this evening. - Breaking waves of 7 to 9 feet will develop tonight and early Monday, briefly up to 10 ft along the Volusia coast. Rough, pounding surf with numerous rip currents and minor beach erosion especially around high tide early Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Today-Mon...Isolated to scattered showers across southern sections where deeper moisture resides as well as some upper support. The higher coverage will occur over the adjacent Atlc (south of the Cape) and this is where the best chance for lightning strikes will occur. Meanwhile, strong high pressure (1043mb) over the central US this morning will build SE and sweep a cold front across the area this afternoon and this evening. The resulting tightening of the NW-N pressure gradient will produce windy conditions tonight along the coast. A Wind Advisory has been posted for the FL east coast for 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph possible. The strongest winds will occur along the immediate coast (barrier islands). Winds will remain unusually breezy/gusty (15-25mph) for nighttime over the interior. These strong N/NE winds will produce rough, pounding surf and minor beach erosion tonight into Mon. Breaking waves of 7-9 FT are forecast, briefly up to 10 FT along the Volusia coast. So a High Surf Advisory has been issued. Fortunately the duration of these winds/seas will be very short. The high tide of most concern will be early Mon between 4am-5am. The high pressure steadily weakens Mon as it reaches the deep South and this will loosen the pressure gradient somewhat and allow winds to begin to decrease Mon aftn. But it will remain breezy/gusty esp along the coast with considerable cloudiness and a passing coastal shower cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will be above normal today in the mid to upper 70s then noticeably cooler behind the front on Monday with max temps holding in the 60s. Tue-Sat...The high pressure will push seaward Tue while continuing to weaken with a trailing axis across north Florida through mid week. This will result in veering wind flow becoming SE Wed-Thu with speeds 15 mph or less. The next cold front is forecast to approach Friday and push through Fri night or Sat. Currently have a mostly dry forecast with this frontal passage but rain chances may need to be introduced late week. Temperatures will be on a gradual warming trend into late week. Afternoon highs will generally be in the low 70s on Tuesday, mid 70s on Wednesday, and upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s Tuesday night, mid to upper 50s on Wednesday night, and upper 50s to low 60s on Thursday night and Friday night. && .MARINE... Issued at 333 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Favorable boating conditions will start out this Sunday morning with winds 10 knots or less and seas 2 FT. But conditions will deteriorate this afternoon and especially this evening/overnight as strong high pressure builds over the area behind a cold front. North winds increase 20-25 knots by sunset across the northern (Volusia) waters will overspread the remainder of our coastal waters this evening with rapidly building seas especially in the Gulf Stream. A Gale Warning has been posted for the Volusia Atlc waters for frequent gusts to gale force (34 knots) while solid Small Craft Advisory conditions will exist elsewhere with occasional gusts to gale force possible. Seas will build rapidly to 13 FT in the Gulf Stream tonight into Monday with 7-10 FT nearshore. The high pressure will weaken as it settles into the SE US Mon so wind speeds will drop below 20 knots Mon aftn but seas will be slower to subside given the NE wind component. The high will push seaward through mid week and winds will veer east then southeast in response and the pressure gradient supporting 10-14 knots. It will take a little while for seas to subside below 7 FT in the Gulf Stream so have extended the SCA there slightly. But once we lose the north wind component, seas will subside below 6 FT Tue night and below 5 FT Wed. Seas nearshore will be 3 FT Wed-Thu as winds develop a SE component. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 100 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Mainly VFR with occasional MVFR CIGs at VRB/FPR/SUA thru 00z, then prolonged MVFR CIGs quickly arrive from north to south tonight. A few SHRA cannot be ruled out at FPR/SUA for the remainder of the afternoon, also. Winds increase thru 00z but moreso after 00z Mon. as a sharp cold front brings NNE winds 12-20+ kt with gusts 20-30+ kt. Potential exists for IFR CIGs after 14z-15z from DAB to LEE on Mon. as MVFR CIGs and breezy to gusty NE winds continue areawide, subsiding by 23z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 50 62 50 69 / 0 10 10 0 MCO 53 64 50 71 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 56 67 55 71 / 10 10 10 0 VRB 59 69 55 73 / 20 10 10 10 LEE 45 62 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 50 63 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 50 63 49 71 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 59 69 55 73 / 20 10 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747. High Surf Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ141-154- 159-164-347-447-647-747. AM...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ550-570. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ552. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ555-575. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ572. && $$ |
| #1254467 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1252 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Cold Weather Advisory Late Tonight & Monday Morning. Wind Chills: 12-25F for Southeast GA, the Suwannee Valley & Inland Northeast FL - Freeze Watches & Warnings for Southeast GA & Inland Northeast FL. Hard Freezes for Inland Southeast GA Late Tonight and Again Monday Night. Light Freezes for Coastal Southeast GA, Suwannee Valley & Inland Northeast FL Late Tonight & Monday Night - Wind Advisory Tonight & Early Monday Morning for Coastal Northeast FL. Frequent Wind Gusts of 40-45 mph Expected for Locations East of I-95 - Gale Warning Late this Afternoon through Early Monday Morning && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Currently, a large upper trough is swinging across the eastern US and rapidly deepening a surface to the northeast. The strengthening low is increasing the speed of the cold front which is quickly pressing southeastward through the warning area this afternoon before exiting to the south around sunset. First, given the tightening gradients between the frontal trough itself and strong, arctic high pressure system, gusty winds will begin with and continue behind the frontal passage this afternoon with breezy winds continuing overnight. The strongest wind gusts will be felt along the immediate coast and beach communities where gusts are expected to top out between 40-45 mph this evening and throughout the night. Inland areas will be gusty but likely to top out in the 30-40 mph range. The Wind Advisory will be left as is (along the NE FL beaches) at this time. Strong push of cold air will be advected into the region tonight lowering temperatures from highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s this afternoon to the low to mid 20s in SE GA and portions of NE FL along the Suwannee River valley. A light freeze is expected for inland areas north of a line from Gainesville to Naval Station Mayport. South of that line lows will be in the mid 30s to low 40s. The big concern with this blast of arctic air will be the Dangerously Low Wind Chills tonight as breezy winds create blustery conditions tonight through Monday morning. These dangerous wind chills will occur through the morning commute and bus stop wait for school kids - dress warm and in layers (gloves, heavy windbreaker, and earmuffs)! Low wind chills in SE GA may reach the low teens and be close to Extreme Cold Warning criteria. Parts of NE FL (Suwannee Valley) may also experience wind chill in the teens, however for most areas of NE FL, it`ll feel like the low to mid 20s where temperatures reach freezing and feel like the upper 20s and low 30s to the south of the aforementioned freeze line. As such, the Cold Weather Advisory and Freeze headlines were also left as is. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will build across the southeastern US Monday. A weak inverted trough will be located over the coastal waters. Across inland SE GA and Suwannee valley of NE FL, the high will provide mainly light winds with clear skies. Along the coast, though the onshore flow will keep winds more elevated with the clouds resulting from the trough. With cold airmass it in place, temperatures will be well below average. The high pressure ridge will extend a little further south into area Monday night, as weak troughing remains over coastal waters off central east coast of FL. Onshore flow along the NE FL coast, will hold lows there in the lower to mid 40s. However, inland areas will have lows fall as low as the middle 20s. The high pressure ridge will become centered to the east Tuesday, with ridge extending across forecast area. It will be a dry and mostly sunny day. Temperatures will be milder, but still trend below average. The high center will drift a little further to the east Tuesday night, with a weak coastal trough in place. It will be a partly cloudy and milder night, with lows ranging from the middle 30s over inland SE GA, to around 50 over the NE FL coast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will be centered to the northeast Wednesday into Wednesday night, as an inverted trough remains over the coastal waters. The trough will lead to partly cloudy skies, but the flow around the back side of the high will help temperatures moderate back to above average levels for Wednesday and Wednesday night. The high and the trough will pull east of Thursday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Thursday will be a largely dry day, but a few showers will be possible well inland later in the day. As the flow gradually comes more from the south, highs will push above average levels. The cold front will move through Thursday night into Friday morning. The precipitation is expected to decrease in coverage as the front moves through, but showers can not be ruled out. Temperatures will continue above average Thursday night and Friday. High pressure will build to the north Friday night, then northeast Saturday with above average temperatures continuing. A cold front will affect the area Sunday, with a low potential for showers, as temperatures continue above normal. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... An arctic front is pushing through the region this afternoon bringing northwesterly wind gusts between 20-30 knots, mainly during the late afternoon and evening. The strong winds will be at the coastal terminals KSGJ and KSSI with gusts occasionally pushing above 30 knots. There will be a brief period of MVFR clouds with the initial frontal passage but otherwise VFR is expected through tonight. There is potential for MVFR stratocumulus to push over the water toward KSGJ, KCRG, and KSSI Monday morning but this will depend on the strength of the coastal trough. && .MARINE... Winds will continue to increase across the local waters as an arctic cold front moves through this afternoon. Winds will gradually increase through the evening with strong, frequent gusts to Gale Force developing toward sunset, especially across the northeastern Florida coastal waters. Those winds will quickly increase seas tonight as well, with rough waves as high as 10 feet offshore and across the NE FL coastal waters. As winds turn northeasterly Monday, coastal troughing will develop encouraging scattered showers, mainly offshore. Weakening high pressure will then shift southward Tuesday, allowing winds and seas to subside. High pressure then shifts offshore on Wednesday afternoon in advance of a weakening frontal boundary that will likely cross the Georgia waters on Friday morning and may then stall over the northeast Florida waters by Friday night. Rip Currents: SE GA High Monday NE FL High Monday && .FIRE WEATHER... A cold front will move southeast of the region this afternoon. Strong high pressure will build from the northwest following the front. The high will settle across the southeastern US Monday, then move off to the east Tuesday. A cold front will move through Thursday night into Friday. High pressure will build to the north then northeast Saturday. A cold front will move through Sunday. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected Tonight. Widespread inland Frost Monday night. Patchy frost SE GA Tuesday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 63 23 44 24 / 10 0 0 0 SSI 68 31 46 36 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 73 32 50 33 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 75 44 57 45 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 75 35 55 35 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 76 38 58 39 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for FLZ021- 023-024-030-031-035-120-124-125-132-136-220-225-232-236- 322-325-422-425-522. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for FLZ021-023- 024-030-031-035-120-124-136-220-225-232-236-322-422-425- 522. Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-136-220-232-236-322-422- 425-522. Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. High Risk for Rip Currents from late tonight through Monday evening for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. High Surf Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ138-233- 333. GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ132>136- 149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364. High Risk for Rip Currents from late tonight through Monday evening for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ450- 470. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ450- 452-454-470-472-474. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1254466 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:03 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1157 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1154 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 - A strong cold front will continue to sweep across the area this morning. Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills are expected tonight. Wind chills could drop to 10 degrees over interior counties and to 15 degrees over coastal counties. - Strong marine winds are expected to develop this afternoon and continuing through tonight behind the cold front. Frequent gusts to gale force are possible over the open Gulf waters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1249 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 An upper-level trough digging southeastward is helping to push a strong cold front through the area this morning. Prior to its passage, dense fog will continue to develop across the southern half of the local area, including over Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound. A Dense Fog Advisory will remain in effect through 5am for land areas and 6am for marine areas. Additionally, widely scattered showers are also beginning to move into our northernmost counties. Rainfall with these showers is expected to remain light and we are not anticipating any thunderstorms. The front should clear the area sometime around sunrise, effectively dissipating our fog and ending our rain chances. Behind the front, winds will become gusty out of the north (wind gusts up to 30-35 mph in spots) as an arctic high pressure system builds in to our north, creating a tight pressure gradient across the local area. This strong cold air advection will cause temperatures to plummet throughout the day (our high will likely occur prior to sunrise). We are still anticipating the coldest air of the season for tonight. Lows are expected to drop down into the upper teens north of Highway 84 to the mid 20s along the immediate coastline. In fact, we may actually get to within a few degrees of our daily record low for KMOB (December 15th record low: 20 degrees (1901) Forecast low: 22 degrees). Factoring in the continued breezy conditions, apparent temperatures (wind chills) could drop to as low as 10-16 degrees north of I-10, with upper teens potentially reaching the immediate coast. With temperatures and wind chills this low, we have issued a Cold Weather Advisory across the entire area, although it should be noted that a few locations may flirt with Extreme Cold Warning criteria. Residents and visitors are urged to make preparations to protect people, plants, pets, and pipes from this upcoming cold weather. Very cold temperatures continue through Monday night. Even under sunny skies, highs on Monday will likely only remain in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. Lows Monday night will generally be in the 20s areawide. By Tuesday and into the middle of next week, flow aloft becomes more westerly to southwesterly and high pressure shifts off to our east, allowing for temperatures to quickly moderate. In fact, highs by Thursday may warm back into the low 70s for some spots. Rain chances may also return to the area by late week as the next, weaker cold front approaches the area. A low risk of rip currents will be in place through Wednesday, increasing to a Moderate Risk by Thursday. /96 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 MVFR ceilings will clear this afternoon with VFR conditions through the remainder of the forecast. Strong northerly winds of 20 to 30 knots will continue this afternoon and early evening. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 1249 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Light onshore flow will persist through the remainder of tonight, along with dense sea fog over Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound. A strong cold front will push across the marine zones later today, with strong northerly to northeasterly winds developing behind the front. Frequent gusts to gale force will be possible over the Gulf waters with strong small craft conditions possible elsewhere. Winds subside on Monday, becoming a light easterly wind for Tuesday. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 60 22 49 29 / 40 0 0 0 Pensacola 62 28 50 34 / 30 0 0 0 Destin 64 31 51 37 / 20 0 0 0 Evergreen 57 21 51 24 / 40 0 0 0 Waynesboro 49 19 46 24 / 20 0 0 0 Camden 49 20 46 23 / 20 0 0 0 Crestview 61 23 51 23 / 20 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for ALZ051>060-261>266. FL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for FLZ201>206. MS...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ630>636. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ650-655. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ670- 675. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday for GMZ670-675. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight CST tonight for GMZ670-675. && $$ |
| #1254465 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:03 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1256 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Arctic high will build in tonight behind a strong cold front that pushed offshore earlier this morning, bringing the coldest temperatures of the season thus far to the area tonight. High pressure shifts offshore by the middle of next week with moderating conditions expected. Another strong cold front then moves through Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1 PM Sunday... Key Messages: - Gusty winds expected across ENC, especially along the Outer Banks where gusts to 35-45 mph are expected. A Wind Advisory is in place for all OBX zones through late tonight. - Dangerous cold expected Monday morning with wind chills in the 5- 15 degree range. A Cold Weather Advisory is in place from late this evening through tomorrow morning. Strong cold front has pushed offshore of ENC as of noon Sunday, with temperatures rapidly falling across the area. Temperatures now reported in the upper-30s to lower-40s after nearing 60 earlier this morning. Colder air will continue to filter in through today/tonight, with temperatures falling into the low-to-mid 30s by this evening before falling into the upper teens inland tonight (low-20s beaches). This will be the coldest air of the season thus far, with wind chills dropping into the 5-15 F range tonight. Given this, Cold Weather Advisory remains in place for all of the forecast area from late this evening into early tomorrow morning. Strong northwesterly winds are accompanying this arctic blast, with gusts 20-30 mph inland and gusts of 35-45 mph expected along the OBX. A Wind Advisory is in place for the Northern Outer Banks and Ocracoke/Hatteras Islands until late tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 1 PM Sunday...Arctic high traverses ENC with cold and brisk temps (highs in the 30s area-wide) expected Monday. Breeziest conditions expected through the morning with winds abating through the day tomorrow. Monday night may be the colder of the next two nights, especially for the coastal mainland areas due to clear skies and decoupled conditions. Lows will be near 20 (25-30 OBX). Winds will be light (unlike tonight), so conditions are currently expected to remain above Cold Weather Advisory criteria, however. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1 PM Sunday... Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure slides offshore Tuesday with SW flow returning bringing a warming trend through mid week (highs expected to warm into the 50s Wednesday and into the 60s by Thursday). Precip chances increase late Thursday (10-30%) and Thursday night (50-70%) with another cold front approaching and moving through the region. Friday through Saturday...Cold front pushes east by week`s end, with dry conditions returning. This late week trough/frontal system is forecast to be weaker than tomorrow`s system. Thus, do not currently expect as substantial of a temperature drop behind the late-week cold front. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1 PM Sun... Key Messages... - Rapidly improving conditions expected this afternoon from west to east - MVFR conditions will persist for the next hour or so inland, and next couple of hours along the coast - Strong NW winds 25-35 mph this afternoon and tonight could impact area runway operations Behind a strong cold front low clouds remain in place over ENC with ceilings generally 1500-2500 ft. Rapid drying behind the cold front through the atmospheric column will bring VFR conditions back to the area over the next couple of hours as the front and associated moisture move offshore. VFR conditions continue this evening and tonight, though strong NW winds of 25-35 mph may impact runways. Winds calm down by tomorrow morning, with clear skies persisting through the day. Outlook: VFR conditions persist through midweek before the next chance at sub-VFR conditions Thursday into Fri with the approach of a frontal system. && .MARINE... As of 1 PM Sunday... Key Messages: - Gale conditions through tonight for northwesterly winds behind a passing cold front, with gusts of 35-40 kt expected. - SCA conditions expected to linger through tonight for sounds/rivers and into Monday afternoon/evening for the coastal waters Today/Tonight...Winds have flipped to northwesterly behind the passage of this morning`s strong cold front, with winds generally noted as 20-30 kts and gusts ranging from 25-35 kts across area waters with this initial northwesterly surge. Gale conditions are already noted across the coastal waters, with the sounds and Alligator River expected to reach Gales later this evening with a secondary northwesterly surge. Winds will peak overnight tonight before beginning to taper off late tonight/Monday morning. Seas have quickly built to 5-7 ft and are expected to peak at 8-12 ft tonight. Monday...Winds die down quickly through the day on Monday, with gusts likely falling below SCA conditions Monday morning. Elevated seas will linger through much of the day, however, with 6+ ft seas lingering north of Cape Hatteras and along the Gulf Stream through Monday evening. Winds back to westerly Monday night. Tuesday through Thursday...Winds abate and broad southwesterly flow develops, with speeds in the 10-20 kt range expected. Gusts may again increase to near/just above SCA criteria across the Gulf Stream waters Wednesday. Seas will be generally 2-5 ft, with the potential for some 6-footers across the Gulf Stream Wednesday afternoon. Thursday night into Friday...Another round of SCA conditions looks likely late this week as southwesterly flow strengthens ahead of the next approaching cold front starting late Thursday and lasting into Friday. With warm offshore waters, gale conditions possible over the Gulf Stream with strong southwesterly flow in place ahead of next cold front. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198- 199-203>205. Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for NCZ203>205. MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EST Monday for AMZ131-230-231. Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Monday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Monday for AMZ150-152-154-156-158. && $$ |
| #1254464 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:03 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 100 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An arctic cold front will sweep through today. Dry high pressure will then build overhead for much of the coming week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A strong cold front is quickly progressing through the forecast area this afternoon and as of 1 PM is located about halfway through the CWA, oriented from NE to SW. Behind the front gusty NW winds have developed, with gusts around 20 to 25 mph. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for Lake Moultrie beginning at 1 PM this afternoon and lasting into tomorrow morning. A dry forecast is in store through the remainder of the day, as any showers ahead of the front have dissipated offshore. The main story through the remainder of this afternoon and into tonight will be the strong cold air advection (CAA) as strong high pressure quickly builds in behind the departing cold front. Most locations have likely reached their high temperatures for the day, with coastal locations seeing upper 60s to 70 in a few spots. These temperatures will quickly plummet as the CAA regime takes over, dropping into the 50s by later this afternoon and the 40s this evening. The arctic high pressure will continue to build across the region tonight, setting up a bitterly cold overnight. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the low 20s across the region, which combined with the gusty winds, will yield wind chill values in the teens. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect from 10 PM this evening into Monday morning. There is a low end chance (~20%) that some locations in the Charleston Tri-County area could see a brief moment or two of single digit wind chills in the early morning hours. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Overview: Bitter cold temperatures continue through Tuesday morning, then begin to moderate by mid week. Monday: Deep, cold high pressure will be centered over the region. Even with full sun, highs not expected to make it much past 40, which are near record low max values for the date! Luckily, winds will be light as high pressure builds directly overhead, reducing any wind chill effects. The surface ridge axis remains directly overhead through Monday evening and overnight night, shifting a bit further east closer to daybreak. Given nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions and dew points in the lower teens to upper single digits, low temperatures into the teens away from the beaches, on the lower end of the guidance envelope, are reasonable. This would necessitate another Cold Weather Advisory for much of SE SC and SE GA inland of the Hwy 17 Corridor. Tuesday and Wednesday: The surface ridge continues to move eastward into the Atlantic with zonal mid and upper level flow. This pattern is expected to allow a moderation in temperatures, reaching to near to slightly above normal by Wednesday. No precipitation is expected during this period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The general zonal upper level pattern is shown by models to briefly be interrupted by a fast moving upper level trough axis and associated weak cold front Thursday. The most likely scenario with this front remains that frontolisis and waning moisture will lead to limited rainfall, with strong ensemble agreement that rainfall amounts will remain less than an inch across the area. Friday through Sunday: the upper flow reverts back to generally zonal, with temperatures above normal, in the 60s to near 70. Models diverge again with the potential for another front and threat for precipitation to approach the area possibly by late in the period on Sunday. Confidence with whether or not this front will have any impact in our area is very low at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR will dominate at KCHS/KJZI through the 18Z TAF period, with a brief period of MVFR cigs expected at KSAV through the first hour of the TAF period before going SKC. Thereafter, this afternoon will feature gusty winds, generally around 20-25 knots, as high pressure builds into the region behind a departing cold front. Gusty winds will continue into the overnight period, waning around daybreak. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions prevail for KCHS, KJZI and KSAV through mid-week. && .MARINE... A strong cold front will quickly push into the marine zones this afternoon, yielding a wind shift from the SW to the N/NW. As high pressure builds into the region behind the departing cold front winds are forecast to surge, with gusts reaching as high as 35 knots outside of the Charleston Harbor. A Gale Warning is now in effect for all offshore waters through Monday morning. The Charleston Harbor will see gusts around 25 knots and has a Small Craft Advisory in effect through Monday morning. It is worth noting that the 12Z HREF shows a 30-40% probability of the harbor seeing wind gusts greater than 30 knots. It is not out of the question that the Charleston Harbor may need to be upgraded to a Gale Warning at some point this afternoon/evening. Monday through Thursday: Elevated seas at sunrise Monday morning will quickly subside through the day as high pressure passes overhead. Ridging at the surface will remain just east of the waters through at least Wednesday keeping benign marine conditions in place. A coastal trough may develop over the nearshore waters on Thursday as a cold front approaches from the west. Winds likely to increase from the south on Thursday, but still expected to remain below highlight levels. && .CLIMATE... Record Low Temperatures: December 15: KCHS: 15/1962 KCXM: 23/1943 KSAV: 19/1962 Record Low Maximum Temperatures: December 15: KCHS: 39/1943 KCXM: 38/1904 KSAV: 38/1904 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141. SC...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for SCZ040-042>045-047>052. Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for SCZ045. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for AMZ330. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ350-352-354-374. && $$ |
| #1254463 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:03 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1250 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Arctic air moves in behind a cold front this evening into tonight, and provides a cold start to the week. The very cold temperatures do quickly give way to relatively milder temperatures for the middle to end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 935 AM EST Sunday... - Snow will gradually come to an end over the next couple of hours, with up to 1-2" across the VA Northern Neck and Maryland eastern shore. - Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect for the entire area for bitterly cold temps tonight/Monday morning with wind chills in the single digits. A strong upper trough continues to amplify over the eastern CONUS with an Arctic front now to our south (though the strongest CAA arrives this evening). As expected, light to occasionally moderate snow is ongoing across the eastern shore, with mainly rain (mixed w/ sleet) in E/SE VA and NE NC. Temperatures only fell to 32-33F this morning when snow was falling across central VA and the VA Northern Neck instead of the 26-30F predicted by several models. This cut into snow accums, and storm total amounts are likely around 1" from Louisa to the Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore. Localized amounts up to 2" are possible in Dorchester and Wicomico Counties. Will allow the Winter Wx Advisories for VA to expire at 11 AM. Temperatures struggle to rise today (and fall during the mid/late aftn). Additionally, NW winds increase to 30-35mph for most of the area and up to 40mph at the coast. Temperatures are forecast to be as low at the mid 20s across the NW up to the low 30s in the SE by mid afternoon. Wind chills this afternoon will be in the teens and low 20s. Temps continue to drop quickly after sunset as CAA ensues. Breezy/windy conditions continue overnight, especially in the east. Lows tonight will be in the mid teens for inland portions of the area and upper teens/around 20F at the coast. Wind Chills will be in the single digits across the entire FA. The Cold Weather Advisory issued for the area is unchanged since the initial issuance yesterday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Chilly and dry Monday and Monday night with a slow moderating trend beginning on Tuesday. Strong Arctic high pressure behind the cold front builds into the area Monday as the UL trough pivots offshore. It will be pretty chilly on Monday with highs only in the mid 30s. The good news is that it will be mostly sunny and much less windy with that high pressure overhead. The high is suppressed to the S/SE Monday evening into Tuesday and sfc flow shifts back to the SW. Lows Monday night will be in the low to mid 20s for most, but some of the colder rural spots could see the upper teens. Temperatures start to moderate on Tuesday under mostly sunny skies. Forecast highs are in the upper 30s in the far NE and low to mid 40s elsewhere. Lows Tuesday night will be in the mid to upper 20s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 AM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Much warmer temperatures (compared to the first half of December) are on the way for the middle and end of the week. - Another (weaker) cold front brings another chance for light rain Thursday night. The warming trend continues Wed as the sfc high moves further to the SE and the flow aloft turns to the WSW. Forecast highs are in the low to mid 50s. Lows Wed night will generally be around 30F. Another relatively mild day for Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Highs could even reach the low 60s in the SE. Could see some rain associated with the late-week front by Thursday afternoon, but timing has trended a little later across the global models and now brings the bulk of the precip in Thurs night into early Fri. So far it does not look like CAA behind this front will be terribly strong with the high behind it coming from the W rather than the NW. Forecast highs from Fri are in the 50s still, then cooling off slightly for Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1250 PM EST Sunday... The Arctic cold front is now south of the terminals and precipitation will exit ECG/ORF within the next hour or two at most. Dry/VFR conditions are expected at all of the terminals from late this aftn through the rest of the 18z/14 TAF period. Skies become clear tonight. Strong NW winds (15-20 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt) will continue through the evening before gradually subsiding tonight-Monday as high pressure returns. VFR conditions will prevail from Monday through Wednesday. The next chance of sub-VFR conditions is Thursday night-Friday AM due to showers ahead of a cold front. && .MARINE... As of 230 AM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - A strong, Arctic cold front crosses the waters this morning, with Gale conditions then expected into tonight over all of the waters. - Light freezing spray is possible later today through tonight. - Another round of SCAs are possible Monday night into early Tuesday. Early this morning, a strong, Arctic cold front is rapidly approaching from the NW. Meanwhile a weak warm front is located over the waters. Winds are light this morning (~5 to 10 knots) and mainly out of the S to SW across the southern half of the waters and N to NE across the northern half. Seas are running around 1 foot, and waves in the Bay 1 foot or less. The strong front will continue to quickly move SE, crossing the waters around or shortly after 09z (4 AM EST). In the wake of the strong cold front, very cold and dry air advects into the region. Extremely cold temperatures aloft (850 mb temps as low as -20 C) mix down to the surface across (relatively) warmer waters, creating very windy conditions. Winds rapidly increase and become NW between 09 and 12z (4 to 7 AM EST), with sustained winds of 25 to 30 knots and gusts of 35+ knots expected by late morning- early afternoon over a majority of the waters. Winds increase further during the afternoon-evening hours, peaking between roughly ~00z to 06z Monday (7 PM to 1 AM EST Mon); sustained winds of 30 to 35 knots and gusts up to 45 knots are expected during this timeframe. Given the extreme airmass change, would not be surprised if brief storm-force wind gusts were realized, especially at the elevated observation sites. Gale Warnings are in effect for all zones. Winds should fall below Gale thresholds everywhere by sunrise Monday morning, and then below SCA thresholds by Monday afternoon, as high pressure builds back into the area. In addition to the wind, seas build to 6 to 10 feet by Sunday night, though the slight offshore component of the wind should help to keep seas from building further. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay will build to 4 to 6 feet (locally up to 7 feet). Finally, some freezing spray is possible later today through tonight due to the strong winds and cold air temperatures. However, marginal water temperatures (low to mid 40s) should keep any freezing spray light. Thus, am not expecting the need for a Freezing Spray Advisory. Calmer conditions are anticipated later Monday, though a brief surge of S-SW wind may lead to additional SCA headlines (mainly over the Chesapeake Bay) late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Sub- SCA conditions then return Tuesday into Wednesday. Another cold front may bring increasing winds Thursday into Friday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for MDZ021>025. NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for NCZ102. VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100- 509>525. Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for VAZ098>100. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ630>638-650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ |
| #1254461 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1147 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1139 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 * Fog, mist, low stratus possible again tonight. * Warmer than normal temperatures and mainly rain-free weather will prevail through next week. * Our next best chance for rain will be on Sunday in response to a cold front; medium (30-60%) chances on Sunday. * Another chance for showers and storms will be in the Tuesday through Wednesday timeframe. * Hazardous marine and coastal conditions are expected to develop on Sunday and persist through Monday in response to the cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1108 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 The forecast period for Deep South Texas and the Lower Rio Grande Valley will continue to consist of warmer than normal temps with a couple chances for rain. Environmentally, tonight will be similar to the past couple of nights (e.g light winds, clear skies, and plenty of low level moisture) and therefore suitable for the potential of fog, mist, and/or low stratus development. Due to the persistence in the pattern and expectations for sufficient radiational cooling through tonight, have opted to issue a Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Sunday morning for all of Deep South Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. Big changes to the weather pattern takes place on Sunday as a strong southward advancing cold front approaches the region. This cold front is associated with an Arctic 1040-1045 mb sfc high pressure system that will be established over the Midwest U.S. Increased sfc convergence and a nearby weak shortwave trough will increase the prospects for showers (maybe an isolated thunder or two as MLCAPE values will be as high as 500 J/kg) to develop over the region on Sunday. We`ve maintained medium (30-60%) chances for showers across Deep South Texas on Sunday. Rain chances diminish from north to south as the cold front sweeps through the region and shifts into northeastern Mexico Sunday evening/night. The other aspect of this cold front will be the winds. Windy conditions are expected to develop on Sunday. Courtesy of how strong the Arctic high is over the Midwest, along and behind the cold fropa, enhanced pressure gradients or tightening isobars will result in blustery northerly winds developing. Late morning through the afternoon and into the evening hours, strong north winds with speeds between 20-30 mph could gusts as high as 35-40 mph, particularly along and east of IH-69C. The strongest of winds will be closer to the coast. In fact, gale force winds are possible over the Gulf Waters (see MARINE SECTION for more details). This winds will decrease in time as the evening progresses. Tuesday through Wednesday is another period that we have to continue to monitor for the potential of showers and thunderstorms. During this time period, a return flow out of the south on the backside of a broad sfc high pressure system centered over the Southeastern U.S. and on the leeward side of a rather potent 575 mb mid-upper low pressure system over northern Mexico will result in increased moisture and warm air advection (WAA) Tuesday through Wednesday. Increased atmospheric moisture content and instability interacting with a nearby shortwave trough or weak frontal boundary plus impulses riding along the southwesterly jet aloft will result in increased prospects for showers and thunderstorms in the Tuesday through Wednesday timeframe. Low-medium (20-40%) PoPs have been established over Deep South Texas during this time period. The best chances looks to be Tuesday evening through Wednesday and the upper level low and associated perturbations get into closer proximity to the region. Areas along and east of IH-69C has the highest chances/risk. Again, we will continue to monitor these trends in the days ahead. A downtrend in temperatures can be expected Sunday through Monday before temperatures begin moderating/warming on Tuesday. Late next week into next weekend, the cold and wintry weather across the northern U.S. begins to retreat northward into Canada as flat ridging (low amplitude 500 mb pattern) envelopes a vast majority of the Lower 48, marking a major large scale weather pattern change towards the milder, less wintry side. For us here in Deep South Texas, this means a stabilized, warmer than normal pattern will solidly be in place with less risk of cool frontal passages and less fluctuations in temperatures. Overall, temps will continue to average out warmer than normal for the balance of the forecast period with daytime highs in the 80s most locations each day except for Sunday through Tuesday. Ahead of the cold front on Sunday, high temperatures will top out in the 70s most places early in the day before falling. Monday is progged to be the coolest day of the forecast period with daytime highs struggling to make it out of the 60s. Finally, on Tuesday, temperatures will begin to moderate as daytime highs are expected to climb back into the 70s most places. Wednesday through at least next Sunday, above normal temperatures will be driven by a 585-588 mb ridge. Overnight low temperatures will mainly be in the 60s during the forecast period. Sunday night into Monday will be the coolest with overnight lows in the 40s across the Northern Ranchlands and 50s along the RGV. Monday night into Tuesday, overnight lows will be in the 50s most places. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 A cold front passing over the region is bringing scattered showers and IFR ceilings to all sites. Low cigs persist overnight, primarily leaving IFR to MVFR conditions. Northerly winds will become gusty, around 30-35 kts, following frontal passage by early this afternoon. Gusty winds begin to lessen by Monday morning. Showers will dry out behind the front with an isolated shower or two possible into the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1108 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Deteriorating marine conditions is expected to take place over the next 6-12 hours as a cold front approaches the region. Along and behind the cold fropa, late Sunday morning, winds will shift out of the north and become gusty over the Laguna Madre and the Gulf Waters. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Laguna Madre and a Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf Waters through at least Sunday night. Adverse to hazardous marine conditions will linger into Monday. However, conditions will improve Monday night with low to moderate winds and seas returning and persisting through the remainder of the forecast period. Showers and thunderstorms are possible over the Gulf Waters on Sunday and again in the Tuesday through Wednesday time period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 50 66 56 76 / 20 10 0 20 HARLINGEN 47 64 52 75 / 10 0 0 10 MCALLEN 50 65 55 73 / 20 0 0 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 47 64 51 71 / 10 0 0 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 59 65 61 73 / 30 10 0 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 51 65 55 76 / 20 0 0 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for TXZ451-454- 455. High Surf Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST Monday for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ130-132-135. Gale Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ150-155-170-175. && $$ |
| #1254462 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1242 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will race through ENC today, with arctic high in place through early this week. High pressure shifts offshore by the middle of next week with moderating conditions expected. Another strong cold front moves through Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Sun...Very warm conditions early this AM as ENC is in pre-frontal warm sector. Arctic cold front analyzed racing sewrd through the TN Valley, and is progged to move through ENC mid/late morning. Rain develops in this strongly forced system, despite meager moisture return. Short duration likely/categorical pops remain in place mainly through the morning hours. Front blasts through with gusty nwrly winds and it will be very apparent, as rapid drying albeit rapidly falling temps expected this afternoon. Temps start in the 50-55 range early, dropping through the 30s this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... As of 3 AM Sun... Key Messages: - Gusty winds expected across ENC, especially along the Outer Banks where gusts to 35-45 mph are expected. A Wind Advisory in place for all OBX zones this afternoon through late tonight. - Dangerous cold expected with wind chills in the 5-15 degree range tonight - Monday morning. A Cold Weather Advisory is remains in effect. ECS/MET/MAV MOS and NBM blend for forecast lows tonight as strong mixing in place all night and thus pure NBM running too cold esp eastern half. Nevertheless, still forecasting lows in the 20s on the coast to the upper teens to near 20 interior zones. This combined with winds of 10+ mph overnight lead to wind chills 5-15 degrees and cold wx adv remains. Strong winds accompany the arctic blast, and windy conditions esp OBX where sustained up to 30 mph gusting 40-45 mph expected. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 AM Sun Monday...Arctic high traverses ENC with cold and brisk temps expected. Highs in the 30s area-wide. Breeziest conditions expected through the morning with winds abating through the day. Monday night may be the colder of the two esp for coastal mainland areas due to clr skies and this time atms will be decoupled. Lows will be in the teens to near 20, with 25-30 OBX. Unlike Sunday night, however, winds will be light to calm so no need for an extension of the cold wx adv. Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure slides offshore Tuesday with SW flow returning bringing a warming trend through mid week (highs expected to warm into the 50s Wednesday and into the 60s by Thursday). Precip chances increase late Thursday (10-20%) and Thursday night (50-60%) with another cold front approaching and moving through the region. Friday through Saturday...Cold front pushes east by week`s end, with dry conditions returning. This late week trough/frontal system are forecast to be weaker than tomorrow`s system. Thus, do not currently expect as substantial of a temperature drop behind the late-week cold front. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1 PM Sun... Key Messages... - Rapidly improving conditions expected this afternoon from west to east - MVFR conditions will persist for the next hour or so inland, and next couple of hours along the coast - Strong NW winds 25-35 mph this afternoon and tonight could impact area runway operations Behind a strong cold front low clouds remain in place over ENC with ceilings generally 1500-2500 ft. Rapid drying behind the cold front through the atmospheric column will bring VFR conditions back to the area over the next couple of hours as the front and associated moisture move offshore. VFR conditions continue this evening and tonight, though strong NW winds of 25-35 mph may impact runways. Winds calm down by tomorrow morning, with clear skies persisting through the day. Outlook: VFR conditions persist through midweek before the next chance at sub-VFR conditions Thursday into Fri with the approach of a frontal system. && .MARINE... As of 3 AM Sun... Key Messages - Gale conditions Sunday afternoon through Sunday night for northwesterly winds behind a passing cold front, with gusts of 35-40 kt expected. Today/Tonight...Strong CAA begins Sunday morning with passage of arctic front. Winds will abruptly shift to northwesterly with the frontal passage and quickly build to Gales across most of the area waters. Sounds and Alligator reach gales this evening with secondary main arctic air CAA surge. Seas peak in the 7-11 ft range by tonight. Monday...Winds die down quickly through the day on Monday, with gusts likely falling below SCA conditions late morning/early afternoon. Elevated seas will linger through much of the day, however, with 6+ ft seas lingering north of Cape Hatteras and along the Gulf Stream through Monday evening. Winds back to westerly Monday night, and gusts may flirt with SCA again across the Gulf Stream waters, especially south and east of Cape Hatteras. Tuesday through Thursday...Winds abate and broad southwesterly flow develops, with speeds in the 10-20 kt range expected. Gusts may again increase to near/just above SCA criteria across the Gulf Stream waters Wednesday. Seas will be generally 2-5 ft. Thursday night into Friday...Another round of SCA conditions looks likely late this week as southwesterly flow strengthens ahead of the next approaching cold front starting late Thursday and lasting into Friday. With warm offshore waters, gale conditions possible over the Gulf with strong swrly flow in place ahead of next cold fropa. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198- 199-203>205. Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for NCZ203>205. MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EST Monday for AMZ131-230-231. Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Monday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Monday for AMZ150-152-154-156-158. && $$ |
| #1254460 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 PM 14.Dec.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1234 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1229 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 - Showers and a few thunderstorms through this morning, with best chances of rain over metro SE Florida. - Marine conditions will begin deteriorating later tonight with hazardous boating conditions through Monday night. - High Risk of Rip Currents for all Atlantic beaches starting Monday early in the morning. A High Surf Advisory will also be in effect for Palm Beach and Broward counties later tonight. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 342 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 An area-wide field of stratiform coverage will continue to produce light to moderate rainfall through the rest of the morning hours with occasional embedded thunderstorms. Latest NBM and ensembles keep the canopy of clouds covering all of SoFlo through around noon, then a dry frontal passage will finally push all the lingering moisture back into the Atlantic by this evening. Consensus(CONSALL) PoP/QPF and high-res solutions keep the upper chances of rain in the 50-60 percent range through the late morning hours. 25th prct remain around 0.1-0.2 inches, with 90th prct keeping the possibility of isolated 2-3 inches before noon. However, based on latest HREF probs, WPC has removed the Atlantic metro areas from the marginal risk in their latest outlook. Behind the FROPA, reinforcing high pressure will quickly follow and by this evening another shot of northerly flow will bring colder/drier air advection across Soflo, with wind gusts reaching the 25-30 mph range over the Atlantic coast at times on Monday and Monday evening. Afternoon highs will remain warm today with low 80s across much of SoFlo, then a cooling trend begins in the wake of the FROPA with highs in the low-mid 70s on Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 309 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Global solutions remain in good agreement in bringing sprawling high pressure across the region in the wake of a FROPA for much the work week. POPs will remain in single digits through the long term. Therefore, expect generally benign and pleasant weather to prevail through the forecast period. Coolest day should be Tuesday with afternoon highs in the mid-upper 70s. Coldest morning should happen Tuesday before sunrise, with lows dipping into the low-mid 50s around Glades and northern Hendry counties. Warming trend then follows on Wednesday with highs back into the upper 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 The main concerns for our terminals over the next 24-30 hours will be scattered showers and storms along a front this afternoon, winds and gusts increasing overnight and peaking tomorrow, and the potential for at least MVFR ceilings spreading across south Florida tomorrow morning through the day. Expect wind gusts tomorrow to be around 30 knots, however there are indications that, while not frequent, peak gust could near 35-40 knots (along the east coast) in a worst case scenario. Cool air advection over the Gulf Stream will likely bring a low cloud deck across south Florida tomorrow as well. && .MARINE... Issued at 309 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Light winds will begin shifting northerly today while increasing behind a frontal passage. Conditions are expected to reach advisory later this evening for which a Small Craft Advisory has been issued. Winds of 25-30kt with higher gusts are expected, along with seas up to 12 feet over the Atlantic waters. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will still be possible through this afternoon. && .BEACHES... Issued at 309 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 High risk of rip currents for all Atlantic beaches starting Monday morning and continuing through the next several days as coastal winds become breezy behind a frontal passage. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 66 74 64 75 / 30 20 10 0 West Kendall 62 75 59 76 / 30 10 10 0 Opa-Locka 65 75 62 76 / 30 20 10 0 Homestead 65 76 64 76 / 30 20 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 66 73 64 73 / 30 30 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 66 72 64 74 / 30 30 10 0 Pembroke Pines 64 75 61 76 / 30 20 10 0 West Palm Beach 65 72 63 74 / 20 20 10 0 Boca Raton 66 74 64 76 / 30 20 10 0 Naples 59 75 57 78 / 10 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ168-172. High Rip Current Risk from Monday morning through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ610. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ630. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ650-651-670-671. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676. && $$ |
| #1254459 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:21 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1100 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Slight chance for showers will persist for this afternoon. -Generally gentle northeast to east breezes will back to the north and freshen by tonight. Small Craft Advisories may be needed for some, or all, of our local waters by either tonight or early Monday morning. -As high pressure builds over the region mid-week, mild, mostly dry conditions will be expected with gentle to moderate breezes. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 An almost night and day difference from 24-hours ago. The warm front that brought us the gloomy and rainy day yesterday has slid back southward. As a result skies have cleared and we`re seeing plenty more bright and blue skies as opposed to gray and dreary. KBYX radar shows that most if not all of the precipitation has dissipated for now. However, we are still awaiting a weak pre- frontal feature to move through this afternoon. If we get enough instability as this feature pivots through we could see a few additional showers. That being said, current thinking for any lightning potential will reside across our Outer Gulf waters this afternoon. Otherwise, we are in a col for now as we wait for the next cold front to arrive. Said front is along the North Gulf Coast this morning and will steadily march southeast through the day. The frontal passage is still on schedule for a late evening and overnight arrival. Behind this front expect breezy to windy conditions to develop. Changes made to the going forecast were to refine PoPs (lowered) for the rest of today as well as winds through this afternoon and evening. No other changes made for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 1100 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 The coastal waters surrounding the Florida Keys are a col this morning with light to gentle winds from nearly all directions. Across the Florida Bay winds vary between northwest to northeast. Over the Hawk Channel, winds are north to northeast, while northeast to east across the Straits of Florida, and lastly winds are from the east to southeast in the Outer Gulf. Light to gentle breezes will continue into this afternoon but will quickly freshen this evening and overnight as a cold front sweep through the area. Expect moderate to fresh breezes to develop after midnight and fresh to strong breezes could sneak in before dawn Monday. Small Craft Advisory conditions likely will occur in the Outer Gulf waters tonight and spread across the remaining waters towards dawn and during the morning on Monday. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 VFR conditions have returned and will prevail through the early part of the forecast. Watching for isolated showers to possibly re-develop after 18Z this afternoon but confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this time. Light northerly winds will back to the northwest and freshen this evening and overnight. A crosswind magnitude reaching 20 knots could arrive as early as 06Z/14th and becoming more likely through Monday morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 457 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Weather conditions along the island chain have essentially plateaued during the overnight shift as persistent, but light, showers lingered. MRMS estimates rainfall totals over the past six hours have been up to a third of an inch across our island communities, but pockets of heavier showers over the distant Florida Straits may have produced approximately 3 to 5 inches. If those showers had moved over any portion of the Keys, this would have been a slam dunk for flooding. Fortunately, we do not need flood products for our local sea life. Automated observations are reporting temperatures in the lower 70s with dew points only a few degrees behind. While not terrible, the moisture is noticeable in the air when stepping outside. Upper level support is still in place to support morning showers, but this support will gradually be pushed away today as troughing digs into the area. While this does mean that showers will gradually diminish, there is a tradeoff. Breezes will freshen drastically in the wake of the front, and Small Craft Advisories may be needed as early as tonight. The northerly component to our winds will also keep temperatures on the cooler side, and highs over the next couple of days will reach the upper 70s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. High pressure building in will keep weather fairly benign over the middle of the week, and ensemble guidance suggests the next opportunity for meaningful rainfall may not be until the weekend. Even then, the agreement among ensemble members isn`t great with respect to timing and rainfall amounts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 80 68 78 68 / 30 20 10 20 Marathon 77 68 75 68 / 20 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1254458 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:24 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1019 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Fast moving low pressure will bring accumulating snow to the region into midday, especially south of the Massachusetts Turnpike. This snow will linger into this afternoon across Rhode Island, and especially across far eastern Massachusetts, where it may persist into this evening. A brief shot of arctic air follows tonight into Monday, with wind chill values dropping to between 0 to 10 below zero. Cold weather continues Monday night into Tuesday but with much lighter winds. A warming trend begins Wednesday and especially by Thursday when high temperatures of 50+ are possible. Unseasonably mild temperatures will be accompanied by a round of showers sometime later Thursday into early Friday with perhaps a period of strong southerly winds and heavy rain. A brief shot of much colder weather with another period of strong winds possible later Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Key Messages... * Accumulating snow ends by lunchtime across western MA/CT, but persists into the afternoon especially across eastern MA * Hourly snowfall rates generally on the lighter side, but brief bursts of moderate snow possible near the south coast Heaviest snowfall band established along the south coast of New England and across the Cape Cod Canal. Observed snowfall ratios prior to daybreak were a little lower than projected, which can make a difference over a longer period of time. Snowfall rates were not remarkable across most of our region. Will have to see if the longer duration during the daytime can compensate for the lower snowfall ratios overnight. Still expecting snowfall to diminish from NW to SE this afternoon. Will continue the Winter Weather Advisories as they are for now. Will likely be able to cancel some of these advisories prior to the 7 PM expiration time. Previous Discussion... Trend in high res guidance has been to shift the timing of the end of the steadiest snow from mid morning to the afternoon for much of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts. Model guidance, namely the HRRR and NAM3km have also begun to resolve an inverted trough and wrap around ocean effect snow extending from low pressure as it pulls away. Trough will be a good focus for vertical motion and moisture as omega increases to -10 to -15 ubar/sec. Sharply colder air filtering behind departing low pressure will introduce non-zero MLCAPE values which could help with ocean enhancement of any snow bands. Despite these favorable parameters, daytime will likely be limited by marginal sfc temps in the mid and even upper 30s. Temps may be locally lower under any ocean effect bands but its really going to take considerable rates to cool the PBL from the influence of 45-47F water temps. As a result, still think that advisory level snow totals 2-4" for RI/SE MA with localized 5-6" amounts possible near the south coast and Cape Cod. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Key Messages... * Very cold with wind chill values near or below zero * Windy conditions with gusts up to 40 mph Sunday Night and Monday The coldest airmass of the season thus far will move in behind the snow for Sunday night as 850mb temps crash into the -15C to -20C range. This will result in overnight low temperatures bottoming out in the single digits across the interior, to the lower teens near the coastal plain. A strong pressure gradient will result in gusty winds overnight, around 25-40 mph. This will bring the windchill index/feels-like temperatures down to the 0F to -5F range, with -5F to -15F in the high terrain. Monday High pressure helps to keep an Arctic air mass in place through the day on Monday as GFS and Euro ensembles keep temperature anomalies near 10 degrees colder than normal. Other story Monday will be a steep pressure gradient keeping a stiff NW wind in place for the region. Wind gusts between 25 and 35 mph will make high temperatures in the teens (at higher elevations) and 20s elsewhere feel more like the single digits to lower teens at their warmest. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages... * A few brief snow showers possible Mon night, otherwise diminishing winds with low temps mainly in the teens * Dry & chilly Tue. Highs mainly in the lower to middle 30s * Turning milder Wed with continued dry weather & highs into the 40s * Showers with heavy rain & potential briefly strong southerly wind gusts later Thu into early Fri with unseasonably mild temps * Brief shot of much colder temps returns behind the front later Fri into Sat with another round of strong winds possible Details... Monday night into Tuesday... A weak shortwave may bring a few brief snow showers to the region Monday night. Otherwise...still chilly Mon night into Tue but with light winds. Low temperatures Mon night will mainly be in the teens. Highs on Tue will range from the upper 20s in the highest terrain to mainly the lower to middle 30s elsewhere. Wednesday... The developing -PNA and high pressure to our south sliding further east will allow for the beginning of a pattern change and milder temperatures. While it will remain dry on Wed, gusty southwest winds developing will push high temperatures well into the 40s. Thursday into Friday morning... Strong shortwave energy over the northern plains will move eastward into the Great Lakes. As this happens, strong surface low pressure perhaps sub 980 mb will pass well to our north across Quebec. Given the potential strength of the surface low pressure system...the long range guidance is indicating a strong southerly LLJ nearly 3 standard deviations outside climatology. Not only will this bring up unseasonably mild temperatures and Pwats exceeding 1 inch. This will combined with strong forcing ahead of the cold front and bring showers with perhaps brief heavy rain sometime later Thu into Fri. In addition...given the magnitude of the southerly LLJ we will have to watch for a brief period for strong surface wind gusts if the inversion is able to mix out. It is way too early to assess that...but depending on the timing temperatures may rise well into the 50s Thu night/early Fri and may even flirt with 60 degrees. If we are able to get mild enough...the potential for a period of strong winds to be realized will increase. Again...way too early to say much more than that but something to watch in the coming days. Later Friday into Saturday... Briefly turning much colder later Friday into Saturday behind the cold front. Mainly dry weather expected, but another period of strong winds this time from the west is possible immediately behind the cold front. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today...Moderate Confidence Light snow will result in a lot of IFR conditions this morning with vsbys in the 1-3 mile range. Bands of moderate snow and and LIFR conditions should mainly be confined to RI/SE MA. The light snow will end across western MA/CT by lunchtime, but linger into this afternoon east of the CT River Valley, especially across eastern MA. So improvement to MVFR and even VFR conditions will be confined to mainly interior southern New England this afternoon. Tonight...High Confidence MVFR-IFR and even brief LIFR conditions are expected in areas towards the Cape and Islands in ocean effect snow showers. This activity should dissipate though after midnight. Otherwise, NW wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots with a few gusts near 30 knots across the high terrain and near the coast develop tonight. Monday...High Confidence Mainly VFR with NW gusts of 30-35 knots. A few CU but should be above MVFR ceilings. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Light snow continues much of the day with vsbys generally in the 1-3 mile range. The steady light snow should finally come to an end by late afternoon/early evening. Total snow accumulations of 1-3". KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Light snow ends by lunchtime with snow accumulations of 1-2" expected. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday: VFR. Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today Through Monday Night ...High confidence. Light N/NW winds through the early afternoon. Winds quickly increase to gales around 21z and gales continue through 20z Monday. Strong cold advection allows for ample mixing resulting in wind gusts between 35-40kts Sunday evening through Monday afternoon. Areas of very light freezing spray possible 00z Monday - 19z Monday. Elsewhere, small craft advisory conditions expected in Narragansett Bay and Boston Harbor. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of snow showers. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MAZ017>024. RI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for RIZ001>008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 3 PM EST Monday for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. && $$ |
| #1254457 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:51 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 941 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Arctic air moves in behind a cold front this evening into tonight, and provides a cold start to the week. The very cold temperatures do quickly give way to relatively milder temperatures for the middle to end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 935 AM EST Sunday... - Snow will gradually come to an end over the next couple of hours, with up to 1-2" across the VA Northern Neck and Maryland eastern shore. - Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect for the entire area for bitterly cold temps tonight/Monday morning with wind chills in the single digits. A strong upper trough continues to amplify over the eastern CONUS with an Arctic front now to our south (though the strongest CAA arrives this evening). As expected, light to occasionally moderate snow is ongoing across the eastern shore, with mainly rain (mixed w/ sleet) in E/SE VA and NE NC. Temperatures only fell to 32-33F this morning when snow was falling across central VA and the VA Northern Neck instead of the 26-30F predicted by several models. This cut into snow accums, and storm total amounts are likely around 1" from Louisa to the Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore. Localized amounts up to 2" are possible in Dorchester and Wicomico Counties. Will allow the Winter Wx Advisories for VA to expire at 11 AM. Temperatures struggle to rise today (and fall during the mid/late aftn). Additionally, NW winds increase to 30-35mph for most of the area and up to 40mph at the coast. Temperatures are forecast to be as low at the mid 20s across the NW up to the low 30s in the SE by mid afternoon. Wind chills this afternoon will be in the teens and low 20s. Temps continue to drop quickly after sunset as CAA ensues. Breezy/windy conditions continue overnight, especially in the east. Lows tonight will be in the mid teens for inland portions of the area and upper teens/around 20F at the coast. Wind Chills will be in the single digits across the entire FA. The Cold Weather Advisory issued for the area is unchanged since the initial issuance yesterday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Chilly and dry Monday and Monday night with a slow moderating trend beginning on Tuesday. Strong Arctic high pressure behind the cold front builds into the area Monday as the UL trough pivots offshore. It will be pretty chilly on Monday with highs only in the mid 30s. The good news is that it will be mostly sunny and much less windy with that high pressure overhead. The high is suppressed to the S/SE Monday evening into Tuesday and sfc flow shifts back to the SW. Lows Monday night will be in the low to mid 20s for most, but some of the colder rural spots could see the upper teens. Temperatures start to moderate on Tuesday under mostly sunny skies. Forecast highs are in the upper 30s in the far NE and low to mid 40s elsewhere. Lows Tuesday night will be in the mid to upper 20s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 AM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Much warmer temperatures (compared to the first half of December) are on the way for the middle and end of the week. - Another (weaker) cold front brings another chance for light rain Thursday night. The warming trend continues Wed as the sfc high moves further to the SE and the flow aloft turns to the WSW. Forecast highs are in the low to mid 50s. Lows Wed night will generally be around 30F. Another relatively mild day for Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Highs could even reach the low 60s in the SE. Could see some rain associated with the late-week front by Thursday afternoon, but timing has trended a little later across the global models and now brings the bulk of the precip in Thurs night into early Fri. So far it does not look like CAA behind this front will be terribly strong with the high behind it coming from the W rather than the NW. Forecast highs from Fri are in the 50s still, then cooling off slightly for Saturday. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 630 AM EST Sunday... Precip associated with a cold front has pushed into the NW half of the forecast area this morning and will reach RIC/SBY around or shortly after 12z. A period of -RASN is likely at RIC/SBY changing to all snow with a couple hours worth of IFR VSBYs (best chc at SBY but an hour or so of IFR VSBYs is possible in SN at RIC). Will note that LIFR VIS is possible at SBY and RIC with a brief band of heavier snowfall. A rain/snow mix is expected at PHF/ORF, with mainly rain at ECG. Could also see some sleet mixing in at these terminals. In addition to the precip, CIGs will drop behind the front to IFR at all terminals before returning to dry and VFR conditions this afternoon with terminals further west seeing clearing conditions first. Behind the front, NW winds will increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt. Skies clear out from W to E after 18z. VFR conditions will prevail Sunday night through Wednesday. Gusty winds Sunday night into Monday morning near the coast will diminish on Monday. && .MARINE... As of 230 AM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - A strong, Arctic cold front crosses the waters this morning, with Gale conditions then expected into tonight over all of the waters. - Light freezing spray is possible later today through tonight. - Another round of SCAs are possible Monday night into early Tuesday. Early this morning, a strong, Arctic cold front is rapidly approaching from the NW. Meanwhile a weak warm front is located over the waters. Winds are light this morning (~5 to 10 knots) and mainly out of the S to SW across the southern half of the waters and N to NE across the northern half. Seas are running around 1 foot, and waves in the Bay 1 foot or less. The strong front will continue to quickly move SE, crossing the waters around or shortly after 09z (4 AM EST). In the wake of the strong cold front, very cold and dry air advects into the region. Extremely cold temperatures aloft (850 mb temps as low as -20 C) mix down to the surface across (relatively) warmer waters, creating very windy conditions. Winds rapidly increase and become NW between 09 and 12z (4 to 7 AM EST), with sustained winds of 25 to 30 knots and gusts of 35+ knots expected by late morning- early afternoon over a majority of the waters. Winds increase further during the afternoon-evening hours, peaking between roughly ~00z to 06z Monday (7 PM to 1 AM EST Mon); sustained winds of 30 to 35 knots and gusts up to 45 knots are expected during this timeframe. Given the extreme airmass change, would not be surprised if brief storm-force wind gusts were realized, especially at the elevated observation sites. Gale Warnings are in effect for all zones. Winds should fall below Gale thresholds everywhere by sunrise Monday morning, and then below SCA thresholds by Monday afternoon, as high pressure builds back into the area. In addition to the wind, seas build to 6 to 10 feet by Sunday night, though the slight offshore component of the wind should help to keep seas from building further. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay will build to 4 to 6 feet (locally up to 7 feet). Finally, some freezing spray is possible later today through tonight due to the strong winds and cold air temperatures. However, marginal water temperatures (low to mid 40s) should keep any freezing spray light. Thus, am not expecting the need for a Freezing Spray Advisory. Calmer conditions are anticipated later Monday, though a brief surge of S-SW wind may lead to additional SCA headlines (mainly over the Chesapeake Bay) late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Sub- SCA conditions then return Tuesday into Wednesday. Another cold front may bring increasing winds Thursday into Friday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MDZ021>025. Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for MDZ021>025. NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for NCZ102. VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100- 509>525. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for VAZ098>100. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for VAZ062-064-069-075>078-083-085-509>522. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ630>638-650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ |
| #1254456 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:06 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 747 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Cold Weather Advisory Late Tonight & Monday Morning. Wind Chills: 12-25F for Southeast GA, the Suwannee Valley & Inland Northeast FL - Freeze Watches & Warnings for Southeast GA & Inland Northeast FL. Hard Freezes for Inland Southeast GA Late Tonight and Again Monday Night. Light Freezes for Coastal Southeast GA, Suwannee Valley & Inland Northeast FL Late Tonight & Monday Night - Wind Advisory Tonight & Early Monday Morning for Coastal Northeast FL. Frequent Wind Gusts of 40-45 mph Expected for Locations East of I-95 - Gale Warning Late this Afternoon through Early Monday Morning && .UPDATE... Only update this morning was to include a slight chance for light rain showers along the prefrontal trough slowly heading toward the Altamaha River in SE GA. This activity will diminish and the primary arctic front will surge south this afternoon as a dry, arctic front. Prepare for the incoming cold weather and breezy winds. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Overnight surface analysis depicts Arctic high pressure (1039 millibars) building over the Plains states and the Upper Midwest, which was pushing a strong cold front across the lower Mississippi Valley, the southern Appalachians, and the Mid-Atlantic states. Aloft...troughing pivoting across the Great Lakes was sharpening as it digs southeastward. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough embedded within southwesterly flow downstream of the digging longwave trough was spreading rainfall and embedded convection across south FL and the Bahamas. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that PWATs generally remain between 0.75 - 1 inch across our region, with values above 1 inch located south of Interstate 4 in the FL peninsula and also north of the Altamaha / Ocmulgee Rivers in southeast GA. A narrow ribbon of deeper moisture located along the Arctic cold front was fostering a line of moderate to briefly heavy showers that were moving southeastward across west central GA and south central portions of AL. Mid-level cloud cover was migrating across the skies for locations north of Waycross in southeast GA, while a few pockets of mostly high altitude cloudiness were moving across northeast and north central FL. Temperatures and dewpoints at 08Z generally ranged from the mid 40s to the mid 50s, except around 60 for coastal southeast GA, where a southerly breeze prevailed. Troughing will continue to sharpen today as it pivots across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states, with this trough taking on a more negative tilt as it swings across New England and offshore of the Mid-Atlantic states tonight. This potent trough will drive an Arctic cold front across southeast GA this morning, and then through the rest of our region during the early to mid afternoon hours. Shower activity along this front over west central GA and south central AL will likely wane in coverage as it approaches the Altamaha / Ocmulgee Rivers after sunrise, with a ribbon of low to mid level cloud cover accompanying the frontal passage at it shifts across our region. The Arctic dome of high pressure will continue to build as it shifts southeastward across the Upper Midwest, with this feature then expanding and gradually weakening overnight over the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of this approaching Arctic cold front, west-southwesterly flow may increase low level moisture values enough to advect low stratus clouds and areas of locally dense fog across northeast and north central FL during the predawn and early morning hours. Meanwhile, surface winds will shift to west-northwesterly as the front moves across the Altamaha / Ocmulgee Rivers during the early to mid morning hours, with a few sprinkles possible beneath a deck of thick stratocumulus clouds across inland southeast GA this morning. Measurable rainfall appears to be unlikely, with chances around or less than 10 percent. Cold air advection will then overspread southeast GA this afternoon, with morning temperatures in the 60s then falling through the 50s as winds shift to northwesterly and become breezy by early afternoon. Temperatures will then fall into the upper 40s for locations north of Waycross towards sunset. Low stratus clouds and areas of locally dense fog across northeast and north central FL early this morning will quickly dissipate by mid-morning as a west-northwesterly breeze develops. Highs will climb to the 70-75 range across most of northeast and north central FL during the early to mid afternoon hours, except mid/upper 60s for northern portions of the Suwannee Valley, where the Arctic front will move through around the noon hour. Temperatures will then tumble through the 60s this afternoon as winds shift to northwesterly and become breezy in the wake of the Arctic frontal passage, with 50s expected across northern portions of the Suwannee Valley before sunset this evening. Arctic high pressure will shove the cold front southward across the FL peninsula tonight, with our local pressure gradient continuing to tighten this evening in the wake of this frontal passage. Winds will shift to northerly around sunset and then north-northeasterly overnight as the Arctic dome of high pressure wedges down the southeastern seaboard. Wind speeds will continue to increase tonight for locations east of I-95, and a Wind Advisory has been issued for coastal northeast FL, where sustained speeds of 20-25 mph will frequently gust to 40-45 mph through around sunrise on Monday. These strong onshore winds will keep lows in the 40s along the northeast FL coast tonight. Winds speeds at inland locations will remain sustained in the 10-15 mph range, which will create a wind chill hazard during the predawn and early morning hours on Monday as strong cold air advection results in temperatures plummeting overnight. A hard advective freeze is likely across inland southeast GA, where lows will fall to the low and mid 20s. Wind chill values will fall to around 15 degrees during the predawn and early morning hours on Monday for these locations, prompting a Cold Weather Advisory. A light advective freeze is forecast for coastal southeast GA, the Suwannee Valley, and portions of inland northeast FL by the predawn and early morning hours on Monday, where lows will fall to the upper 20s and lower 30s. Wind chill values will fall to the 20-25 degree range towards sunrise on Monday, prompting a Cold Weather Advisory. Lows elsewhere for inland north central FL will generally fall to the 35-40 degree range, with wind chill values dropping to around 30 towards sunrise on Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will continue to build south and eastward throughout the day on Monday, settling in possibly the coldest and driest airmass of the winter season so far. Winds will turn more northeasterly throughout the day as the high pressure ridge builds southward, and be quite breezy through the morning hours and into the early afternoon before rather quickly subsiding during the evening and after sunset. Winds will range from the 10-15G20 range over inland GA to around 15-20G30 closer to the coast and over much of northeast FL, and combined with highs in the 40s and 50s will make the air feel up to 5-10 degrees colder. Weak troughing along the coastal waters will result in scattered cloud cover over eastern counties, with mostly sunny skies expected inland. Monday night, the high will settle over southern GA, with weak troughing remaining over the coastal waters and keeping a light north to northeasterly breeze around 5-10 mph overnight closer to the coast and St. Johns River Basin. Across much of the interior, radiational cooling conditions will be much more favorable closer to the high pressure center, and therefore a rather wide range in low temperatures is expected Monday Night. Lows in the low to mid 20s will be common over inland SE GA, upper 20s to mid 30s are forecast north and west of the St. Johns River Basin and Upper Suwannee River Valley in northeast FL, and upper 30s to mid 40s will be expected for the NE FL coast/areas furthest south and east. With the prime radiational cooling conditions the further north and west you go, a Freeze Watch has been posted for much of the interior Monday Night, where areas/widespread frost is also likely. High pressure slowly shifts eastward into the Atlantic throughout the day Tuesday and through Tuesday Night, gradually shifting the light north to northeast winds towards towards the east-northeast to east. This will help to moderate our temperatures rather quickly on Tuesday, though still trending a bit below normal with highs ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s north to the mid to upper 60s south. The coastal trough, albeit weaker on Tuesday, will keep a few low clouds around closer to the coast with plenty of sunshine elsewhere. Though the airmass will be moderated somewhat, conditions will still be rather favorable for radiational cooling Tuesday Night, with lows in the 30s likely across inland GA with 40s expected elsewhere. The only limiting factor will be some increasing mid and high clouds across the area Tuesday Night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The area will remain on the western periphery of the above mentioned high pressure ridge Wednesday before shifting further offshore Thursday ahead of the next frontal system taking shape over the Plains. The next frontal system will move through the area around Friday and Friday Night, though it does not look to be as strong as the system from earlier in the week. Rain chances also look limited with this system at this time, with drought conditions expected to continue through the long term. Temperatures will be near normal Wednesday, trending above normal for Thursday and Friday before likely falling closer to normal into the start of the weekend after the frontal system moves through. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... IFR to LIFR conditions at VQQ will continue through around 13Z. Periods of MVFR visibilities will be possible through around 13Z at CRG. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through around 15Z. MVFR ceilings from 2,000-3,000 feet along an Arctic cold front will move over the SSI terminal from around 16Z-19Z, with these ceilings shifting southward across the Duval County terminals from 18Z-21Z and then impacting GNV and SGJ from 19Z-22Z. VFR conditions will then prevail at the regional terminals by 23Z. Southerly surface winds sustained at 5-10 knots will prevail overnight at SSI, with light southwesterly winds developing at the northeast FL terminals after 09Z. Surface winds will shift to westerly and will increase to 5-10 knots by 15Z, followed by winds shifting to northwesterly and steadily increasing to 15-20 knots with higher gusts after 17Z. Surface winds will then shift to north northeasterly after 00Z, with sustained speeds increasing to 15-25 knots with higher gusts at SGJ and SSI by 03Z, while speeds at the inland terminals remain sustained in the 10-15 knot range with occasional higher gusts. && .MARINE... An Arctic cold front will cross the Georgia waters towards noon today and will continue southward across the northeast Florida waters during the early to mid afternoon hours. Winds will shift to northwesterly and will steadily increase this afternoon through tonight. Small Craft Advisory conditions will develop early this afternoon across the Georgia waters, followed by winds shifting to northerly towards sunset and then northeasterly after midnight. Frequent Gale force wind gusts will develop late this afternoon and will continue through around sunrise on Monday throughout our local waters as strong high pressure wedges down the southeastern seaboard. Coastal troughing will then develop over our local waters on Monday and Monday night, developing scattered showers, mainly offshore. Weakening high pressure will then shift southward towards our area on Tuesday, allowing winds and seas to quickly subside. High pressure will then shift offshore on Wednesday afternoon, with scattered showers possible by Thursday and Thursday night in advance of a weakening frontal boundary that will be entering the southeastern states. This front will likely cross the Georgia waters on Friday morning and may then stall over the northeast Florida waters by Friday night. Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Monday NE FL High Monday && .FIRE WEATHER... CRITICALLY LOW RH LEVELS INLAND SE GA MONDAY... PATCHY LOW DISPERSIONS TUESDAY... A strong cold front will move southeast across the area today and into tonight, ushering in a much drier and cooler airmass into the region. Strong high pressure will build behind this boundary through Monday. Rain chances will be very low with the front (around 5-10%), with the main impact along with drier conditions being breezy northwest to northerly winds in the 10-20G30 mph range inland and 15- 25G40 mph range near the coast. Conditions will approach elevated fire danger over interior southeast GA this afternoon and evening behind the front, though minRH values are expected to only reach about 30-35%. Dispersions will be good to borderline high area wide today. Very dry airmass will linger through monday with RH values in the 20-30% range over inland GA, though fortunately winds will subside essentially throughout the day. Weaker winds and lower dispersions will return Tuesday and into mid week as high pressure settles almost directly over the area. The next frontal boundary doesn`t look to approach the region until about Friday. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy to areas of fog will be expected early this morning, with greatest coverage south of Gainesville. A hard freeze and dangerous wind chills are expected for most of the area Monday morning, though winds will be too strong for frost in most areas. Widespread Frost will be likely over SE GA and inland NE FL Monday night. Areas of frost likely inland SE GA once again Tuesday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 63 24 44 23 / 20 0 0 0 SSI 68 32 47 36 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 70 32 51 34 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 72 44 56 45 / 0 0 10 0 GNV 73 33 56 35 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 75 39 59 38 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for FLZ021- 023-024-030-031-035-120-124-125-132-136-220-225-232-236- 322-325-422-425-522. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for FLZ021-023- 024-030-031-035-120-124-136-220-225-232-236-322-422-425- 522. Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-136-220-232-236-322-422- 425-522. Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. High Surf Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ138-233- 333. GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ132>136- 149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ450-470. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1254455 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 715 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 333 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 - Cold front will cross the area this afternoon and evening and bring windy conditions tonight along the coast where a Wind Advisory has been posted. Breezy/gusty north winds over the interior during the night. - Boating conditions will rapidly deteriorate late today across the Volusia waters where a Gale Warning will go into effect. These strong north winds will then quickly overspread all the waters this evening. - Breaking waves of 7 to 9 feet will develop tonight and early Monday, briefly up to 10 ft along the Volusia coast. Rough, pounding surf with numerous rip currents and minor beach erosion especially around high tide early Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Today-Mon...Isolated to scattered showers across southern sections where deeper moisture resides as well as some upper support. The higher coverage will occur over the adjacent Atlc (south of the Cape) and this is where the best chance for lightning strikes will occur. Meanwhile, strong high pressure (1043mb) over the central US this morning will build SE and sweep a cold front across the area this afternoon and this evening. The resulting tightening of the NW-N pressure gradient will produce windy conditions tonight along the coast. A Wind Advisory has been posted for the FL east coast for 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph possible. The strongest winds will occur along the immediate coast (barrier islands). Winds will remain unusually breezy/gusty (15-25mph) for nighttime over the interior. These strong N/NE winds will produce rough, pounding surf and minor beach erosion tonight into Mon. Breaking waves of 7-9 FT are forecast, briefly up to 10 FT along the Volusia coast. So a High Surf Advisory has been issued. Fortunately the duration of these winds/seas will be very short. The high tide of most concern will be early Mon between 4am-5am. The high pressure steadily weakens Mon as it reaches the deep South and this will loosen the pressure gradient somewhat and allow winds to begin to decrease Mon aftn. But it will remain breezy/gusty esp along the coast with considerable cloudiness and a passing coastal shower cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will be above normal today in the mid to upper 70s then noticeably cooler behind the front on Monday with max temps holding in the 60s. Tue-Sat...The high pressure will push seaward Tue while continuing to weaken with a trailing axis across north Florida through mid week. This will result in veering wind flow becoming SE Wed-Thu with speeds 15 mph or less. The next cold front is forecast to approach Friday and push through Fri night or Sat. Currently have a mostly dry forecast with this frontal passage but rain chances may need to be introduced late week. Temperatures will be on a gradual warming trend into late week. Afternoon highs will generally be in the low 70s on Tuesday, mid 70s on Wednesday, and upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s Tuesday night, mid to upper 50s on Wednesday night, and upper 50s to low 60s on Thursday night and Friday night. && .MARINE... Issued at 333 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Favorable boating conditions will start out this Sunday morning with winds 10 knots or less and seas 2 FT. But conditions will deteriorate this afternoon and especially this evening/overnight as strong high pressure builds over the area behind a cold front. North winds increase 20-25 knots by sunset across the northern (Volusia) waters will overspread the remainder of our coastal waters this evening with rapidly building seas especially in the Gulf Stream. A Gale Warning has been posted for the Volusia Atlc waters for frequent gusts to gale force (34 knots) while solid Small Craft Advisory conditions will exist elsewhere with occasional gusts to gale force possible. Seas will build rapidly to 13 FT in the Gulf Stream tonight into Monday with 7-10 FT nearshore. The high pressure will weaken as it settles into the SE US Mon so wind speeds will drop below 20 knots Mon aftn but seas will be slower to subside given the NE wind component. The high will push seaward through mid week and winds will veer east then southeast in response and the pressure gradient supporting 10-14 knots. It will take a little while for seas to subside below 7 FT in the Gulf Stream so have extended the SCA there slightly. But once we lose the north wind component, seas will subside below 6 FT Tue night and below 5 FT Wed. Seas nearshore will be 3 FT Wed-Thu as winds develop a SE component. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 640 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Conditions are no longer favorable for fog development and have pulled mention from the TAFs, but can`t rule out a sunrise surpriseand will AMD if needed. SHRA and TSRA have largely pushed offshore of KVRB-KSUA, but some MVFR CIGs from the moisture supporting that convection has overspread those terminals and made it up to KTIX. High clouds are obscuring this deck on satellite imagery so not very confident how long impacts will last, so for now have TEMPOs to 14Z. Light/VRB winds this morning become NW 7-12 kts after 18Z, then turn northerly and further increase to 13-18 kts with gusts 20-30 kts after 23Z, possibly up to 35 kts at times along the coast as a sharp cold front pushes through Central Florida. Could see a prolonged period of MVFR CIGs through the the night and into Monday. Guidance is currently a tossup right on the line between VFR and MVFR. For this package going with an optimistic SCT020 and BKN035 based on GFS MOS/LAMP. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 50 61 49 / 0 0 10 10 MCO 78 52 64 49 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 78 56 67 55 / 10 0 10 10 VRB 79 58 69 55 / 30 10 10 10 LEE 77 45 62 44 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 79 50 64 47 / 0 0 10 0 ORL 77 50 64 48 / 0 0 10 0 FPR 80 58 69 54 / 30 10 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747. High Surf Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ141-154- 159-164-347-447-647-747. AM...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ550-570. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ552. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ555-575. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ572. && $$ |
| #1254454 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:03 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 544 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 528 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 - The coldest air of the year will bring dangerous wind chills and a widespread freeze to the area tonight into Monday morning. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect over this time period. - Strong winds and dangerous seas are expected into Monday after a strong cold front moves through. Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings are now in effect for this time period. && .UPDATE... Issued at 528 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Cold front progressing rapidly through the area, although falling temperatures will lag the front a bit. Had already expired the Fog Advisory on the Mississippi coast at 4 AM CST, and will update the CWF for the expiration of the Marine Fog Advisory at 6 AM. Main forecast issue for the remainder of the day will be the timing of skies clearing. Most available guidance indicates this should occur prior to noon for much of the area, although one or two convection allowing models linger it until early afternoon south of Interstate 10. Calendar day highs have likely already occurred in most areas, although there could be some minor temperature recovery this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 102 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 It has been a little busy tonight watching the strong cold front work down towards the area and forecasting the development and advancement of fog along coastal areas. Fog began to develop quickly over coastal MS and then began to popup across areas of the immediate SELA coast. This is far enough ahead of the cold front where the air is not being mixed and moisture has piled up but this will not last long. The cold front which was right on the doorstep of the CWA by 5z will continue to quickly work south and could already be moving into the Gulf by 12Z the drier and cooler air will not be far behind. We will also see some light rain and maybe even a few rumbles of thunder associated with the front this morning. So the obvious forecast concern is, how cold do we get tonight? Well, that is the million dollar question and yes it will get cold tonight, likely the coldest temperatures we have seen so far this season and by a few degrees at that. The cold front already stretches southwest from western NC and northern GA into central and southwest MS and then back to the west through central TX while a 1038/1039 sfc high is centered over the northern and into the central Plains. Looking at the mid lvls the L/W trough over the eastern CONUS is broad but the trough axis is all the way down into the southern Gulf while a ridge dominates the 4 corners with the ridge axis extending north just west of the continental divide into southwestern Canada. The main embedded s/w associated with our cold air mass is actually just barley moving through the Mid MS Valley and will be move into the OH and TN Valleys by late morning/midday. This continues to work east- southeast with the main trough axis moving off of the Atlantic coast this evening. This keeps the area under northwest flow aloft while the ridge to our west broadens out some moving east into the southern Plains. At the sfc high pressure will continue to diver south across the Plains this morning before surging more to the east and southeast during the day and overnight. By Monday morning high pressure will dominate most of the southeastern CONUS and Appalachians but still not centered over the area. This will usher a very cold and dry airmass into the area today and overnight. This airmass will be very shallow. Models and fcst sndgs indicate strong cold air advection during the day today and will cool things off considerably around h925 and below but not much in the way of CAA at h85. The other interesting and fcst problem is h925 temps actually warm overnight. All models CAMs, regional, and global models indicate LL temps warming overnight indicating how shallow this airmass really is. Looking upstream it was definitely cold across MO and KS but most of the evening it was struggling to dive south as it hit the Ozarks and then finally around 4/5z the colder air began to surge south across northern AR and eastern OK. Given that the sfc high is not going to be centered over the area and CAA is likely going to continue into the early evening hours before finally leveling off the radiational cooling potential is not the primary factor tonight. Winds around h925 will still be near 15- 20kts at 6z before finally starting to drop. This would suggest some mixing still and given that all models were showing h925 temps increasing overnight that gives me pause on how cold we get tonight. However, MOS guidance has trended slightly colder for tonight with lows near 20 for a good chunk of the northern half of the CWA. If that happens combined with the wind not decoupling, Apparent Temps could drop below 15 degrees for more than just isolated locations. That would necessitate an Extreme Cold Warning. That said there are still too many questions and will stick with the latest NBM showing lower to mid 20s across the northern half of the CWA. However, with the MET, MAV, and ECS all showing lows around 20 for ASD, MCB, and even lower 20s for BTR and PQL confidence is not as high in the forecast. Things that i don`t like to ultimately achieve those colder temps, the placement of the trough, I would prefer it being a little deeper amplified and stronger northwest to north-northwest flow aloft helping to drive the colder air more south and not shunt it to our east, the LL warm air advection overnight, the raw models showing sfc temps about 5 almost 10 degrees above MOS, and I would even like to see the snow pack a little farther south. All of that is giving me pause to lower the min T forecast and actually has me leaning to bump up the lows a degree or two but like I said we will stick with the NBM for now which is on the high side of its on probabilistic forecast. So with that we will continue to forecast lows of lower to mid 20s across southwest MS and down to the I 10/12 corridor and coastal MS. While south of I-10 lows will range from the mid 20s to near freezing. Winds will remain strong enough to make the air feel even colder with Apparent temps in the mid to upper teens across northern half of the CWA and in the lower to mid 20s across the southern half overnight tonight. A Cold Weather Advisory was already issued for the entire area and will not make any changes to that. Given that the Cold Weather Advisory is higher priority hazard than the Freezing Warning that is why there is no Freeze Warning out for anywhere in the CWA. One other aspect that was looked at closely for today was the wind. Strong cold air advection during the day and very high sf pressure rises early will give way to gusty northerly winds over the land areas late this morning and through the afternoon. Contemplated a wind advisory but held off for now. Winds don`t look like they will be quite strong enough to necessitate one. Clouds may hang out for at least the first half of the day hurting the mixing potential and (again with the very shallow nature of this airmass) the h925 winds are not unidirectional with the sfc winds and are off by as much as 20-30 degrees during the midday and afternoon hours. This will also hurt the efficiency of mixing down the stronger h925 winds which could be as high as 30-35kt. If we can mix those down a few gust could range between 35 and 40 mph. As one forecast brought up even though the winds may not be in the wind advisory criteria range there could still be impacts given the amount of Christmas decorations outside. So if you do have things that are not tethered/tied down that may be a good call to secure those items today. Monday will be cool but things look to quickly moderate as we head into the work week. Northwest flow aloft and high pressure still dominating the region will keep the area generally below normal for a little longer with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 102 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Things quickly moderate heading into Tuesday. Ridging aloft starts to push into the area Tuesday but a disturbance currently moving onshore over CA will quickly work east across the 4 corners and into the southern Plains and northern Mexico. How much of this continues east into the Lower MS Valley Wednesday is still unknown as it could surge more south into Mexico and try to close of or just continue to plow on east towards the Lower MS Valley Wednesday. If it does it could bring another chance of rain to the area but if it work south into Mexico we may not have to wait long as the pattern become mostly zonal across the region mid week with a strong disturbance moving across the northern and middle portions of the central CONUS Thursday bring another cold front into the region. This will be more of a Pacific airmass so not really strong but still a slightly cooler and drier airmass for the end of the week. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Wide range of conditions at forecast issuance time, with most either IFR or VFR. Extremely low conditions have exited the area terminals. There remains potential for IFR conditions through late morning, but expect all terminals to be VFR by 18-19z, if not sooner. Beyond that point, the main concern will be northerly winds, with gusts to 25 to 30 knots possible during the late morning and afternoon hours, especially at KNEW and KMSY. Winds should abate at most terminals by sunset, but could continue at KNEW and perhaps KMSY for most or all night. && .MARINE... Issued at 102 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 A strong cold front with a very shallow cold airmass will quickly move through this morning with strong offshore winds developing after it moves through. The fog that has developed near the coast and MS Sound will quickly begin to improve during the early morning hours. Winds will quickly pickup to around 20-25kt out of the north with gusts over 30 by midday. Winds will gusts from 30-35kt over all of the waters with frequent gusts near Gale in the outer waters through Monday morning. Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings are already in effect for the waters over this time period. Another high will then quickly settle over the area on Tuesday, and this will allow winds to turn more easterly and fall back to less than 10 knots. Seas will also begin to subside as the winds decrease Monday night into Tuesday. /CAB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 49 22 48 28 / 10 0 0 0 BTR 54 24 51 31 / 30 0 0 0 ASD 60 22 50 29 / 40 0 0 0 MSY 61 32 48 38 / 50 0 0 0 GPT 62 26 50 33 / 50 0 0 0 PQL 60 22 50 29 / 40 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557. Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ532- 534. Gale Warning until 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ570-572-575-577. MS...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for MSZ068>071-077-083>088. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557. Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ534. Gale Warning until 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1254453 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:03 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 557 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 552 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 - A strong cold front will continue to sweep across the area this morning. Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills are expected tonight. Wind chills could drop to 10 degrees over interior counties and to 15 degrees over coastal counties. - Strong marine winds are expected to develop this afternoon and continuing through tonight behind the cold front. Frequent gusts to gale force are possible over the open Gulf waters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1249 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 An upper-level trough digging southeastward is helping to push a strong cold front through the area this morning. Prior to its passage, dense fog will continue to develop across the southern half of the local area, including over Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound. A Dense Fog Advisory will remain in effect through 5am for land areas and 6am for marine areas. Additionally, widely scattered showers are also beginning to move into our northernmost counties. Rainfall with these showers is expected to remain light and we are not anticipating any thunderstorms. The front should clear the area sometime around sunrise, effectively dissipating our fog and ending our rain chances. Behind the front, winds will become gusty out of the north (wind gusts up to 30-35 mph in spots) as an arctic high pressure system builds in to our north, creating a tight pressure gradient across the local area. This strong cold air advection will cause temperatures to plummet throughout the day (our high will likely occur prior to sunrise). We are still anticipating the coldest air of the season for tonight. Lows are expected to drop down into the upper teens north of Highway 84 to the mid 20s along the immediate coastline. In fact, we may actually get to within a few degrees of our daily record low for KMOB (December 15th record low: 20 degrees (1901) Forecast low: 22 degrees). Factoring in the continued breezy conditions, apparent temperatures (wind chills) could drop to as low as 10-16 degrees north of I-10, with upper teens potentially reaching the immediate coast. With temperatures and wind chills this low, we have issued a Cold Weather Advisory across the entire area, although it should be noted that a few locations may flirt with Extreme Cold Warning criteria. Residents and visitors are urged to make preparations to protect people, plants, pets, and pipes from this upcoming cold weather. Very cold temperatures continue through Monday night. Even under sunny skies, highs on Monday will likely only remain in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. Lows Monday night will generally be in the 20s areawide. By Tuesday and into the middle of next week, flow aloft becomes more westerly to southwesterly and high pressure shifts off to our east, allowing for temperatures to quickly moderate. In fact, highs by Thursday may warm back into the low 70s for some spots. Rain chances may also return to the area by late week as the next, weaker cold front approaches the area. A low risk of rip currents will be in place through Wednesday, increasing to a Moderate Risk by Thursday. /96 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 552 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Light rain showers continue to stream into the area this morning, which is eroding the dense fog. Winds are quickly turning northerly at the terminals as a potent cold front sweeps across the area. Strong northerly winds will gust to 20-30 knots by late morning and persist into the early evening hours area-wide. 07/mb && .MARINE... Issued at 1249 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Light onshore flow will persist through the remainder of tonight, along with dense sea fog over Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound. A strong cold front will push across the marine zones later today, with strong northerly to northeasterly winds developing behind the front. Frequent gusts to gale force will be possible over the Gulf waters with strong small craft conditions possible elsewhere. Winds subside on Monday, becoming a light easterly wind for Tuesday. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 60 22 49 29 / 40 0 0 0 Pensacola 62 28 50 34 / 30 0 0 0 Destin 64 31 51 37 / 20 0 0 0 Evergreen 57 21 51 24 / 40 0 0 0 Waynesboro 49 19 46 24 / 20 0 0 0 Camden 49 20 46 23 / 20 0 0 0 Crestview 61 23 51 23 / 20 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for ALZ051>060-261>266. FL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for FLZ201>206. MS...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ630>636. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ650-655. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ670- 675. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday for GMZ670-675. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight CST tonight for GMZ670-675. && $$ |
| #1254451 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:03 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 657 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An arctic cold front will sweep through today. Dry high pressure will then build overhead for much of the coming week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: Aloft, a high amplitude trough will dig across the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic states, helping force an arctic cold front through the area mid morning into early afternoon. A southwest wind will help maintain mild conditions locally through morning hours, with high temps likely to occur early prior to fropa, generally in the upper 50s/around 60 inland to low-mid 60s near the coast. However, expect temps to begin a cooling trend by early-mid afternoon as strong cold air advection occurs post front. Latest soundings are not impressive in regards to moisture, but indicate a period of cloudy conditions and light showers during morning hours. QPF will remain low, mainly below a tenth of an inch across Southeast South Carolina. Precip likely ends with fropa (around noon), but gusty northwest winds (20-30 mph) will develop across most areas as strong low-lvl mixing occurs with cold air advection. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect across Lake Moultrie as a result, starting at 4 PM. Tonight: Arctic high pressure will build across the region from the north and west, setting up a dry, but cold night. Gusty and dry conditions post fropa will likely have dried out all surfaces during afternoon hours, especially given little rainfall accumulation, thus limiting any concern of slippery roads/black ice during the night. The main issue will be low wind chill values during the second half of the night. Strong cold air advection to the region will help temperatures dip into the upper teens well inland and north to low- mid 20s near the SC/GA beaches and south of I-16 across Southeast Georgia. Temps could approach record low levels (see climate section). These temperatures along with northerly winds gusting upwards to 15-25 mph (strongest near the coast) support wind chill values in the 11-20 degree range. Coldest wind chill temperatures should occur across the Charleston Tri- County Area and perhaps across inland Southeast South Carolina counties. Wind chill temperatures could briefly touch 10 degrees, but the coverage and duration of the event is quite limited prior to daybreak. Thus, the Extreme Cold Watch has been replaced with a Cold Weather Advisory, which is now in effect for all of Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia from 10 PM tonight until 10 AM Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Overview: Very cold temperatures continue for Monday, then begin to moderate by mid week. Monday: Deep, cold high pressure will be centered over the region. Even with full sun, highs not expected to make it much past 40, which are near record low max values for the date! Luckily, winds will be light, reducing any wind chill effects. By Monday night, high pressure will start off centered over the area, then it will slide eastward into the Atlantic waters by late night. With light winds, clear skies and a very dry low levels, expect ideal radiational cooling conditions. This will make for another cold night with lows in the 20s most areas, except closer to 30 near the coast. We continue to monitor the potential for another Cold Weather Advisory, but current overnight temperature forecast keeps temps just above the 20 degree threshold. Even with the current forecast, there could be some areas that briefly touch 20 degrees. Tuesday and Wednesday: The surface ridge continues to move eastward into the Atlantic with zonal mid and upper level flow. This pattern is expected to allow a moderation in temperatures, reaching to near to slightly above normal by Wednesday. No precipitation is expected during this period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The general zonal upper level pattern is shown by models to briefly be interrupted by a fast moving upper level trough axis and associated weak cold front Thursday. This upper level trough may have enough deep layer moisture to produce isolated showers Thursday and Thursday night. Friday through Sunday: the upper flow reverts back to generally zonal, with temperatures above normal, in the 60s to near 70. Models diverge again with the potential for another front and threat for precipitation to approach the area possibly by late in the period on Sunday. Confidence with whether or not this front will have any impact in our area is very low at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI terminals through 13Z this morning. Light showers associated with a cold front could produce MVFR cigs temporarily in the 13-15Z Sunday timeframe, followed by prevailing MVFR cigs through 18Z. At SAV, TEMPO MVFR cigs are anticipated between 15-17Z, associated with the passing front. Gusty northwest to north winds (20-25 kt) are also likely at all terminals from 15Z Sunday to 08Z Monday, before starting a downward trend (gusts 15-20 kt) through 12Z Monday. Extended Aviation Outlook: Monday through Wednesday: VFR conditions are expected to prevail for KCHS, KJZI and KSAV. Thursday: Isolated showers may impact the TAF sites with the potential for brief flight restrictions with any showers. However, confidence is low to moderate for the potential for any showers during this period. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: High pressure extending across the Atlantic will eventually give way to a quickly approaching cold front from the west, leading to deteriorating wind/sea conditions this afternoon. Ahead of the front, a southwest wind in the 10-15 kt range will gradually ramp up to 15-20 kt by late morning, then quickly turn northwest this afternoon as an arctic cold front shifts offshore. Northwest to north winds should gust upwards to 25-35 kt, strongest outside the Charleston Harbor late afternoon and through much of the night. For this reason, the Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Gale Warning for all waters, the exception being the Charleston Harbor where a Small Craft Advisory is in place. Seas will also build with winds surging across local waters late afternoon into the overnight period, reaching 5-7 ft across most nearshore waters, but topping out near 8-9 ft around 20 nm off the Charleston County Coast and across outer Georgia waters. Monday through Thursday: No highlights are expected through the period. A high pressure ridge at the surface will remain just east of the waters through at least Wednesday. This will keep mainly west-southwest winds of 15 knots or less and seas 2 to 4 feet. A coastal trough may develop over the nearshore waters on Thursday as a cold front approaches from the west. Winds likely to increase from the south on Thursday, but still expected to remain below highlight levels. && .CLIMATE... Record Low Temperatures: December 15: KCHS: 15/1962 KCXM: 23/1943 KSAV: 19/1962 Record Low Maximum Temperatures: December 15: KCHS: 39/1943 KCXM: 38/1904 KSAV: 38/1904 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141. SC...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for SCZ040-042>045-047>052. Lake Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Monday for SCZ045. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EST Monday for AMZ330. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ350-352-354-374. && $$ |
| #1254452 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:03 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 544 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 115 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2025 Updated to include the latest Preliminary point temps/pops to the bottom of the discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 534 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 - Near to below normal temperatures in the wake of our next cold front Sunday through Tuesday - Low chances (20-40%) for showers today with the frontal passage - Gale Warning for Sunday and Sunday night across the Gulf waters && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1152 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 A cold front will swing across the region tonight providing some relief to our most recent warm stretch. Temperatures will be near normal Sunday and Tuesday with Monday featuring below normal temperatures. Unfortunately this cool weather will be short lived as another warming trend awaits us for mid-week. Most of the forecast period will be dry, with Sunday and Wednesday being the only exceptions with a low (20-40%) chance for showers. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 534 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Scattered showers associated with a cold front moving south into the area this morning, will continue to push southward through the morning hours. The showers are expected to end from north to south through late morning to early afternoon as drier air begins to filter into the area. The winds have shifted to the northeast and are expected to become more northerly and increase to 15-25 knots with gusts around 30 knots by mid to late morning. Winds are expected to gradually decrease this afternoon and evening with speeds dropping to around 10 knots tonight. LIFR/IFR conditions this morning will improve to MVFR through 16Z and VFR by late afternoon or early evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1152 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Near Gale to Gale (BF 7-8) northeast winds will develop this morning across the Gulf waters and continue through Sunday night. As we head into Monday morning, winds will quickly relax to moderate levels (BF 4) and shift to the southeast which will then hang around for the rest of the week. Medium to high (30-70%) chances for rain can be expected today with rain chances quickly tapering off Sunday evening. Our next chance for rain will return Tuesday night into Wednesday with a medium (40-50%) chance for showers across the Gulf waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1152 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Despite the passage of our next cold front, relative humidity levels are expected to remain above 30% with relatively light to moderate winds, except for Sunday, where winds can gust to 25-30 mph. However, due to the relative humidity remaining above critical levels, elevated fire weather conditions will not expected through early this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 68 43 59 50 / 20 0 0 0 Victoria 62 34 57 42 / 10 0 0 0 Laredo 68 47 62 52 / 40 0 0 0 Alice 68 42 61 47 / 20 0 0 0 Rockport 67 43 58 52 / 20 0 0 0 Cotulla 62 42 60 48 / 10 0 0 0 Kingsville 68 43 61 49 / 30 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 68 48 58 55 / 20 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday for GMZ231-232-236- 237. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ250-255- 270-275. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ250-255- 270-275. Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM CST Monday for GMZ250-255-270-275. && $$ |
| #1254450 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:00 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 647 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will race through ENC today, with arctic high in place through early this week. High pressure shifts offshore by the middle of next week with moderating conditions expected. Another strong cold front moves through Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 3 AM Sun...Very warm conditions early this AM as ENC is in pre-frontal warm sector. Arctic cold front analyzed racing sewrd through the TN Valley, and is progged to move through ENC mid/late morning. Rain develops in this strongly forced system, despite meager moisture return. Short duration likely/categorical pops remain in place mainly through the morning hours. Front blasts through with gusty nwrly winds and it will be very apparent, as rapid drying albeit rapidly falling temps expected this afternoon. Temps start in the 50-55 range early, dropping through the 30s this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Sun... Key Messages: - Gusty winds expected across ENC, especially along the Outer Banks where gusts to 35-45 mph are expected. A Wind Advisory in place for all OBX zones this afternoon through late tonight. - Dangerous cold expected with wind chills in the 5-15 degree range tonight - Monday morning. A Cold Weather Advisory is remains in effect. ECS/MET/MAV MOS and NBM blend for forecast lows tonight as strong mixing in place all night and thus pure NBM running too cold esp eastern half. Nevertheless, still forecasting lows in the 20s on the coast to the upper teens to near 20 interior zones. This combined with winds of 10+ mph overnight lead to wind chills 5-15 degrees and cold wx adv remains. Strong winds accompany the arctic blast, and windy conditions esp OBX where sustained up to 30 mph gusting 40-45 mph expected. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 AM Sun Monday...Arctic high traverses ENC with cold and brisk temps expected. Highs in the 30s area-wide. Breeziest conditions expected through the morning with winds abating through the day. Monday night may be the colder of the two esp for coastal mainland areas due to clr skies and this time atms will be decoupled. Lows will be in the teens to near 20, with 25-30 OBX. Unlike Sunday night, however, winds will be light to calm so no need for an extension of the cold wx adv. Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure slides offshore Tuesday with SW flow returning bringing a warming trend through mid week (highs expected to warm into the 50s Wednesday and into the 60s by Thursday). Precip chances increase late Thursday (10-20%) and Thursday night (50-60%) with another cold front approaching and moving through the region. Friday through Saturday...Cold front pushes east by week`s end, with dry conditions returning. This late week trough/frontal system are forecast to be weaker than tomorrow`s system. Thus, do not currently expect as substantial of a temperature drop behind the late-week cold front. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 645 AM Sun... Key Messages - MVFR ceilings develop this morning and linger into the afternoon - VFR conditions return tonight though breezy winds persist into Mon morning Cold front is currently noted across the Triangle and quickly approaching. Low clouds and scattered showers are nearing the Coastal Plain as of this update and should begin overspreading the terminals within the next hour or two. Ceilings lower to MVFR levels (1500-2500 ft) by 7-9 AM and remain at MVFR levels through the morning. Light rain will then increase in coverage through the morning hours overspreading all the terminals by mid morning (~10 AM) with much of ENC seeing light rain. Rain may mix with some snow mainly across the northern tier of ENC just before precip quickly ends this afternoon (between 12PM and 4PM) but little in the way of impacts are expected. Most guidance has only low probabilities of IFR conditions developing (odds of 10-20% or less), but some brief periods are possible especially where rain is the steadiest, between 13-18z. To account for this chance, have a SCT deck at 800 ft between this time. Improving conditions expected this afternoon primarily after about 18Z, however strong NW winds will develop behind the departing front with wind gusts 20-30 mph possible inland with 35-45 mph wind gusts possible along the OBX. Outlook: Gusty NW winds will ease Mon with gusts falling below 20 mph across the inland areas by daybreak Mon and falling below 30 mph along the OBX at the same time. Winds continue to decrease throughout the day Mon becoming light and variable by Mon evening. VFR conditions persist through midweek before the next chance at sub-VFR conditions Thursday into Fri with the approach of a frontal system. && .MARINE... As of 3 AM Sun... Key Messages - Gale conditions Sunday afternoon through Sunday night for northwesterly winds behind a passing cold front, with gusts of 35-40 kt expected. Today/Tonight...Strong CAA begins Sunday morning with passage of arctic front. Winds will abruptly shift to northwesterly with the frontal passage and quickly build to Gales across most of the area waters. Sounds and Alligator reach gales this evening with secondary main arctic air CAA surge. Seas peak in the 7-11 ft range by tonight. Monday...Winds die down quickly through the day on Monday, with gusts likely falling below SCA conditions late morning/early afternoon. Elevated seas will linger through much of the day, however, with 6+ ft seas lingering north of Cape Hatteras and along the Gulf Stream through Monday evening. Winds back to westerly Monday night, and gusts may flirt with SCA again across the Gulf Stream waters, especially south and east of Cape Hatteras. Tuesday through Thursday...Winds abate and broad southwesterly flow develops, with speeds in the 10-20 kt range expected. Gusts may again increase to near/just above SCA criteria across the Gulf Stream waters Wednesday. Seas will be generally 2-5 ft. Thursday night into Friday...Another round of SCA conditions looks likely late this week as southwesterly flow strengthens ahead of the next approaching cold front starting late Thursday and lasting into Friday. With warm offshore waters, gale conditions possible over the Gulf with strong swrly flow in place ahead of next cold fropa. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198- 199-203>205. Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EST Monday for NCZ203>205. MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EST Monday for AMZ131-230-231. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning from noon today to 6 AM EST Monday for AMZ150-152- 154-156-158. && $$ |
| #1254449 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 536 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Conditions will turn sharply towards the wintry after a strong cold front finishes passing through the region. - Hazardous marine conditions continue on the waters - but the dense fog of recent nights will be replaced by near-Gale to Gale conditions on coastal waters. On coastal islands and peninsulas, the expected gusty winds have also prompted a wind advisory for Sunday. - Freezing overnight temperatures are anticipated for a good portion of SE TX late Sunday night into Monday morning. Freeze Watches have been posted for locations that haven`t seen their first freeze of the season. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1111 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 A cold front is making its way across Southeast Texas late this evening. For now, the main indicator of the front passing is a smattering of scattered showers, mostly to the east of I-45. However, once the cold airmass behind the front starts to surge into the area, we should see conditions change fairly quickly. Whatever temperatures are at midnight? That`s going to be the high for today, as post-frontal north winds will pick up quickly to signal the arrival of the western fringes of a sharp, arctic airmass pushing into the Continental US. Temperatures will fall through the night, then hold steady and...maybe...rise a few degrees during the day, then head right on back to falling once the sun is low enough that it can no longer overcome the combined powers of radiational cooling and cold air advection. Winds will be gusty, but not necessarily excessively so for most of the area for any real duration. Peak gusts may end up being around 30 mph over the rural west, but should mostly be in the 10-20 mph range with some gusts up into the 20s. This is getting awfully close to the threshold for a wind advisory, but without sustained winds above 25 mph or several hours of gusts over that, I`ve opted to hold off for now. The exception to this? Chambers County (primarily the parts downwind of Trinity Bay) and area islands and peninsulas beyond the Intracoastal Waterway. These locations should all have relatively low-friction surfaces upstream of them, allowing winds to crank up a bit more. So, I did opt to issue a wind advisory for those zones today. Once the sun goes down and we lose the ability to mix down stronger winds just aloft, gusts should come down significantly. Also going down significantly overnight into Monday morning? Yup, those temperatures. A large freeze watch remains in place for locations that are expected to see relatively widespread dips below freezing tonight for the first time this season. Yesterday was probably the best time to finish off those cold weather prep while it was still warm - but if you`ve got some exposed pipes to wrap, plants to bring in, etc. you`ll have all day today to take care of that as well. Though this shot of wintry air will be chilly, no doubt, it also looks to be pretty short-lived. Winds look to turn back around to being onshore later on Monday, which will begin us on the process of bringing in warmer, more humid Gulf air. It won`t be an immediate turnaround - Monday night will still be a cold one across the area - but probabilities for sub-freezing temps go way down for all but the Piney Woods beyond Lake Livingston. After this cold shot, we do have a couple more things to keep an eye out for this week. The first will be Wednesday as an upper trough scoots across Texas, potentially also spinning up a trough or weak low over the Gulf. We certainly do have plenty of the ingredients for our next round of showers and perhaps some storms in the general area for this period. But, it`s also probably worth mentioning that any surface low looks to be well offshore, which won`t necessarily be great for strong low level moisture return. I`ve got slight chance (well inland) to chance (coast) PoPs late Tuesday night and Wednesday, but I don`t know that there`s a whole lot to say about it beyond that. Unless...in the next couple of days, guidance starts to line up these holes in the cheese a little more. Something to evaluate over the next couple of days, but from the data I have now, not particularly worrying. Later this week, we`ll look for our next cold front in the train to move on through. Unlike tonight`s front, which is powered by a deepening upper trough and pool of arctic air surging into the CONUS...this next one will see flow aloft remain more zonal, and the coldest air remain hemmed up in the northern tier of the country...at least until the 1040+ mb surface high drops in, but by then, it will be well to the east of us. For here, Friday looks to get a bit cooler, and Friday night a little chilly (think lows in the 40s and 50s, not 20s and 30s). But really, it will just be the quick hop step as we polka our way towards higher temperatures and the weekend. No? Nothing? Huh, that line woulda been big in Sheboygan... && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 451 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 A cold front has moved through the region ushering in gusty north to northeasterly winds that will continue through this afternoon. Sustained winds of 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt north of I-10, and up to 30-35kt possible south of I-10. Winds gradually lower by this evening, but GLS may have elevated winds near 15-20kt into late tonight. IFR to MVFR conditions will continue through the morning hours with CIGs around 700-1500ft through the mid morning, then up to 2500-3000ft by the early afternoon. Skies will clear from north to south with area-wide VFR conditions expected by 20z. VFR conditions will then prevail through Monday afternoon. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1111 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 In the remaining hours before the front arrives, expect light onshore winds, low seas, and even patchy fog redevelopment. The front is about to move into the Houston metro, and should be pushing into the bays after midnight, and out over the Gulf between 3 and 6 am. While light winds and any fog may linger for a short while after the front passes, they will scour out shortly afterwards as strong, gusty north to northeast winds build in the front`s wake. Along with the strong winds, building seas will follow. Gusts to near gale force are expected on the bays, and frequent gusts to or above gale are likely on the Gulf. A Small Craft Advisory is in place for the Bays and a Gale Warning on the Gulf until late Sunday night. For those working onshore, a wind advisory is in place on all islands and peninsulas beyond the Intracoastal Waterway as well as Chambers County on Sunday. Winds and seas gradually diminish Monday morning, and return to a southeast direction by Monday night. The quick turn in winds should prevent low tides from getting low enough to require a Low Water Advisory, but we should still see a few low tide cycles with levels around or slightly below MLLW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 53 30 55 38 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 57 33 54 39 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 61 37 53 45 / 20 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for TXZ178- 195>200-210>214-227-300-313. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ214-436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday for GMZ330-335. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ350-355- 370-375. Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM CST Monday for GMZ350-355-370-375. && $$ |
| #1254448 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:45 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 640 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures warm today, then cooler air returns early next week. - Hazardous marine conditions expected Sunday night through Monday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Periodic low cigs will affect southwest Florida sites for a few hours this morning, then VFR returns. A front will pass through later today and tonight, with winds becoming more north to northeast, gusting to around 20 knots. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 We will see another warm afternoon with most us getting to around 80 degrees. This warm air is out ahead of a strong cold front which will start to push through quickly this evening. Behind it winds will pick up with breezy conditions overnight and through the day on Monday. Highs on Monday will stay in the mid 60`s. Winds will calm down by Monday night but that will allow for some more radiational cooling. This will bring down temperatures a few degrees cooler Tuesday morning then on Monday morning. For the rest of our work week and into next weekend the weather will remain quiet as high pressure dominates the area. We will on a slow warming trend day to day staring on Tuesday afternoon. Highs should be back in the 80`s by Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 232 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 A cold front will sweep through the Gulf starting this evening. Once the front passes winds will quickly pick up out of north to 20 to 25 knots. These winds will stay elevated until Monday evening when they slowly start to come back down. By Tuesday winds will be out of the northeast between 10 to 15 knots and will continue to come down to 5 to 10 knots by Wednesday. Winds will start to shift southeast by next Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 232 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 A strong and quick moving cold front will push through this evening. Behind it we will see breezing conditions starting overnight and through the day on Monday. However RHs will remain above critical levels so no red flag is expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 76 50 67 50 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 79 57 74 54 / 30 0 0 0 GIF 78 49 66 48 / 10 0 0 0 SRQ 78 53 71 51 / 10 0 0 0 BKV 77 42 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 74 53 67 53 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Monday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee- Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
| #1254447 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:42 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 631 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front crosses the the Mid Atlantic this morning, with accumulating snow possible, especially on the Eastern Shore. Arctic air moves in behind the cold front this evening into tonight, and provides a cold start to the week. The very cold temperatures do quickly give way to relatively milder temperatures for the middle to end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 AM EST Sunday... - Snow totals have trended upward to 1-2" for the RIC metro and N and 2-3" for the MD Eastern Shore. The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to include the northern counties W of the bay, including the RIC metro. Moderate to heavy rates will reduce visbilities. - Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for the entire area for bitterly cold temps tonight/Monday morning with wind chills in the single digits. Early morning sfc analysis indicates a warm front draped across the local forecast area and a cold front just to the NW. A strong UL trough is dipping down into the eastern CONUS, supporting the front from aloft. Latest obs show temps in the upper 30s to low 40s in the southeast and low to mid 30s elsewhere. An area of snow with a heavier band embedded can be observed on latest radar over the Baltimore and DC metro areas. The strong cold front and the precip associated with it will pass through the area as the morning progresses. The 00z suite of CAMs, along with the HRRR runs since then, are in fair agreement with regard to timing of precip. Should start to see precip enter the N/NW portions of the area (Louisa over to Dorchester) around 4am, then progress SE from there, reaching central portions of the area (along a Mecklenburg-RIC-SBY line) around 5-7am. During this time, there could also be some light precip in the SE ahead of the main line. Precip continues to push SE and looks to exit off the coast around mid-morning. Given above freezing temps areas will see rain to start, then transitioning to snow as the cold air rushes in behind the front. Could also see some sleet briefly mixing in during the transition period, especially in the SE later this morning. With regard to snowfall amounts- there has been an upward trend in expected accumulations. The last several runs of the HRRR and the HREF probabilities both support extending the 1-2" area down through the Northern Neck and into the Richmond metro. There was also a slight bump up for the MD Eastern Shore to 2- 3" with highest amounts right along that northern edge of Dorchester County. This increase is further supported by the likely presence of an FGEN band as depicted in the latest NAM12. Snow would likely fall rather quickly in a burst, reducing visibilities drastically and putting down quick accumulation. With all of this in mind, the Winter Weather Advisory was expanded to include the northern counties west of the bay including the Richmond Metro. Temperatures drop quickly behind the front and NW winds pick up to 30-35mph for most of the area and up to 40mph at the coast. Temperatures are forecast to be as low at the mid 20s across the NW up to the low 30s in the SE by mid afternoon. Wind chills this afternoon will be in the teens and low 20s. Temps continue to drop quickly after sunset as CAA ensues. Breezy/windy conditions continue overnight, especially in the east. Lows tonight will be in the mid teens for inland portions of the area and upper teens/around 20F at the coast. Wind Chills will be in the single digits across the entire FA. The Cold Weather Advisory issued for the area is unchanged since the initial issuance yesterday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Chilly and dry Monday and Monday night with a slow moderating trend beginning on Tuesday. Strong Arctic high pressure behind the cold front builds into the area Monday as the UL trough pivots offshore. It will be pretty chilly on Monday with highs only in the mid 30s. The good news is that it will be mostly sunny and much less windy with that high pressure overhead. The high is suppressed to the S/SE Monday evening into Tuesday and sfc flow shifts back to the SW. Lows Monday night will be in the low to mid 20s for most, but some of the colder rural spots could see the upper teens. Temperatures start to moderate on Tuesday under mostly sunny skies. Forecast highs are in the upper 30s in the far NE and low to mid 40s elsewhere. Lows Tuesday night will be in the mid to upper 20s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 AM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Much warmer temperatures (compared to the first half of December) are on the way for the middle and end of the week. - Another (weaker) cold front brings another chance for light rain Thursday night. The warming trend continues Wed as the sfc high moves further to the SE and the flow aloft turns to the WSW. Forecast highs are in the low to mid 50s. Lows Wed night will generally be around 30F. Another relatively mild day for Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Highs could even reach the low 60s in the SE. Could see some rain associated with the late-week front by Thursday afternoon, but timing has trended a little later across the global models and now brings the bulk of the precip in Thurs night into early Fri. So far it does not look like CAA behind this front will be terribly strong with the high behind it coming from the W rather than the NW. Forecast highs from Fri are in the 50s still, then cooling off slightly for Saturday. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 630 AM EST Sunday... Precip associated with a cold front has pushed into the NW half of the forecast area this morning and will reach RIC/SBY around or shortly after 12z. A period of -RASN is likely at RIC/SBY changing to all snow with a couple hours worth of IFR VSBYs (best chc at SBY but an hour or so of IFR VSBYs is possible in SN at RIC). Will note that LIFR VIS is possible at SBY and RIC with a brief band of heavier snowfall. A rain/snow mix is expected at PHF/ORF, with mainly rain at ECG. Could also see some sleet mixing in at these terminals. In addition to the precip, CIGs will drop behind the front to IFR at all terminals before returning to dry and VFR conditions this afternoon with terminals further west seeing clearing conditions first. Behind the front, NW winds will increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt. Skies clear out from W to E after 18z. VFR conditions will prevail Sunday night through Wednesday. Gusty winds Sunday night into Monday morning near the coast will diminish on Monday. && .MARINE... As of 230 AM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - A strong, Arctic cold front crosses the waters this morning, with Gale conditions then expected into tonight over all of the waters. - Light freezing spray is possible later today through tonight. - Another round of SCAs are possible Monday night into early Tuesday. Early this morning, a strong, Arctic cold front is rapidly approaching from the NW. Meanwhile a weak warm front is located over the waters. Winds are light this morning (~5 to 10 knots) and mainly out of the S to SW across the southern half of the waters and N to NE across the northern half. Seas are running around 1 foot, and waves in the Bay 1 foot or less. The strong front will continue to quickly move SE, crossing the waters around or shortly after 09z (4 AM EST). In the wake of the strong cold front, very cold and dry air advects into the region. Extremely cold temperatures aloft (850 mb temps as low as -20 C) mix down to the surface across (relatively) warmer waters, creating very windy conditions. Winds rapidly increase and become NW between 09 and 12z (4 to 7 AM EST), with sustained winds of 25 to 30 knots and gusts of 35+ knots expected by late morning- early afternoon over a majority of the waters. Winds increase further during the afternoon-evening hours, peaking between roughly ~00z to 06z Monday (7 PM to 1 AM EST Mon); sustained winds of 30 to 35 knots and gusts up to 45 knots are expected during this timeframe. Given the extreme airmass change, would not be surprised if brief storm-force wind gusts were realized, especially at the elevated observation sites. Gale Warnings are in effect for all zones. Winds should fall below Gale thresholds everywhere by sunrise Monday morning, and then below SCA thresholds by Monday afternoon, as high pressure builds back into the area. In addition to the wind, seas build to 6 to 10 feet by Sunday night, though the slight offshore component of the wind should help to keep seas from building further. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay will build to 4 to 6 feet (locally up to 7 feet). Finally, some freezing spray is possible later today through tonight due to the strong winds and cold air temperatures. However, marginal water temperatures (low to mid 40s) should keep any freezing spray light. Thus, am not expecting the need for a Freezing Spray Advisory. Calmer conditions are anticipated later Monday, though a brief surge of S-SW wind may lead to additional SCA headlines (mainly over the Chesapeake Bay) late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Sub- SCA conditions then return Tuesday into Wednesday. Another cold front may bring increasing winds Thursday into Friday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MDZ021>025. Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for MDZ021>025. NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for NCZ102. VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100- 509>525. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for VAZ098>100. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for VAZ062-064-069-075>078-083-085-509>522. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ630-631. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ632-634-650-652-654. Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ633-635>638-656-658. && $$ |
| #1254446 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:30 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 626 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 621 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 - Another round of fog, especially across the Florida Big Bend, is expected tonight ahead of the cold front. - A Freeze Warning for a Hard Freeze for temperatures at or below 25 degrees is in effect for our Alabama and Georgia counties Sunday night into Monday morning. - A Freeze Warning for temperatures below 32 degrees is in effect for the Emerald Coast and coastal Franklin County Sunday night into Monday morning. - A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect Sunday night into Monday morning across the area for wind chills between 15 and 20 degrees in Alabama and Georgia and 16 to 24 degrees for Florida. - A Freeze Watch for temperatures at or below 25 degrees is in effect for our Alabama, Georgia, and inland Florida Panhandle counties Monday night into Tuesday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 145 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Light showers early this morning will be possible for our SE Alabama counties ahead of the much anticipated cold front. The rainfall will amount to less than a tenth of an inch. Fog is expected again this morning for the FL Panhandle and Big Bend in areas along and south of I-10. Fog may be dense at times and should clear out by mid- morning as the cold front passes through. The cold front will be on our doorstep in SE Alabama just before daybreak and will quickly push through the region by the afternoon hours. Cold air advection will follow the frontal passage with breezy north/northwesterly winds around 15-20 mph with gusts of 25- 30 mph. It is likely that temperatures will be falling through the day, with the warmest temps occuring during the morning hours for our northwestern counties that receive the frontal passage first. That will make the hourly temperature forecast tricky for today. Tonight, temps are expected to fall into the mid to upper 20s, and near 30 along the immediate coast. These temperatures are why a Hard Freeze Warning has been issued due to values at or below 25 degrees is the criteria for the hazard issuance. A Freeze Warning (part of the freeze program) has been issued for the Emerald Coast and coastal Franklin County for their first expected freeze of the season. In addition to cold temperatures, the winds will be elevated during the nighttime hours. Northerly winds around 10-15 mph, and still gusting to around 20 mph will create a wind chill (feels- like temperature) in the low 20s down to the teens. These are dangerously cold wind chills, so a Cold Weather Advisory will be in effect tonight for all of our counties. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 145 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Monday morning: Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s, however the wind chill values early in the morning will be in the teens and lower 20s. The Cold Weather Advisory will be active through around mid-morning to cover the dangerous wind chills expected for Monday morning. A Freeze warning for a Hard Freeze is also in effect for the actual temperatures will be at or below 25 degrees in our Alabama and Georgia counties. During the day Monday, temps will struggle to reach out of the 40s for areas along and north of I-10. Coastal communities in the FL Panhandle and Big Bend can see temps in the low to mid 50s. Winds during the day Monday will be a gentle breeze around 10-15 mph. Monday night into Tuesday morning: Clear skies overnight with light/calm winds will lead to radiational cooling, allowing temperatures to potentially "crash" in some locations. Forecast temps will be in the low to mid 20s. A Freeze Watch for a Hard Freeze has been for our AL and GA, and inland FL Panhandle counties where the coldest temperatures are expected. Frost is likely to develop area-wide during the morning hours on Tuesday. A warming trend will start during the day on Tuesday with temps rising into the 60s and to the low 70s by the end of the week, which will be a little above normal for mid-December. A weak shortwave trough is expected to pass through mid-late week, which could bring a slight chance for showers. Given the low confidence and supposed lack of moisture return at the time, PoPs have been limited to 30%. Late in the week, there looks to be another cold front that will make its way across the eastern third of the country. At this time, there is much uncertainty as to whether the front will hold together for the SE United States and what impacts (if any) there could be. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Cold front is moving into southern Alabama with winds beginning to clock to northwesterly behind the front from PRN-TOI-DHN. Ahead of the front, patchy fog and low stratus is evident mainly in the FL panhandle and Big Bend. As the front moves in, MVFR/IFR cigs will accompany the passage just ahead and behind with some -RA at DHN and ABY. The rain will be decreasing with eastward extent. After frontal passage, expect winds to clock to the northwest and become gusty with 25-30 knots common through after sunset (01-03Z) though elevated winds around 10 knots will continue afterwards and through the night. && .MARINE... Issued at 145 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 A strong cold front will push through our waters this morning, sharply turning our winds to the north and northwest. Winds will quickly increase to 25-30 kts with gusts up to 35 kts in waters west of Apalachicola. A Gale Warning is in effect this afternoon through tonight, and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for our eastern waters and the waters of St. Andrews Bay. Advisory level winds will follow the Gale warning for waters west of Apalachicola. Winds and seas will gradually decrease during the day on Monday. Favorable boating conditions are expected to return to the Gulf waters by early mid-week with northeasterly winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 145 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Light showers will be possible over the Alabama Wiregrass and FL Panhandle regions this morning ahead of a strong cold front but, not enough accumulations to account for a "wetting rain". For the FL Big Bend region, patchy to areas of fog will be possible. Fog may be dense at times. Following the cold front, winds will sharply turn out of the north and northwest at around 15-20 mph, and gusting up to 25-30 mph. Dispersions today will be fair to moderate. Winds will begin to relax on Monday as they shift northeasterly with temperatures starting in the mid-20s and warming to the mid and upper 40s, low 50s for the immediate coast and SE Big Bend. Dispersions will be fair but MinRH values will be low in the low to mid 20s% for much of the region on Monday. The SE Big Bend will have humidities around 40%. The surface high is forecast to be directly overhead on Tuesday, allowing for calm winds. This will also lead to low dispersions for Tuesday afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 145 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Light rainfall accumulations are possible early this morning in our Alabama counties ahead of the cold front. Dry weather is then expected through most of the upcoming week. A slight chance for rain returns by midweek, but potential amounts remain low. Overall, rainfall amounts through next week are less than a tenth of an inch. No flooding is anticipated over the next several days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 66 30 49 27 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 67 31 52 33 / 10 0 0 0 Dothan 61 25 47 24 / 10 0 0 0 Albany 62 25 46 22 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 66 26 48 26 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 74 32 55 33 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 67 34 50 38 / 10 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114- 115-118-127-128-134-326-426. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for FLZ007-009>011-013. Freeze Warning from 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ to 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ Monday for FLZ108-112-114-115. High Rip Current Risk from 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning through late tonight for FLZ114. GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Monday for GAZ120>131- 142>148-155>161. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161. AL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for ALZ065>069. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Monday for ALZ065>069. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for ALZ065>069. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday for GMZ730-755-765-775. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight CST tonight for GMZ735. Gale Warning from noon today to midnight CST tonight for GMZ751- 752-770-772. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1254445 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:30 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 620 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Fast moving low pressure will bring accumulating snow to the region into midday especially south of the Massachusetts turnpike. The snow will linger into the afternoon across Rhode Island and especially across far eastern Massachusetts where it may persist into this evening. A brief shot of arctic air follows tonight into Monday, with wind chill values dropping to between 0 to 10 below zero. Cold weather continues Monday night into Tuesday but with much lighter winds. A warming trend begins Wednesday and especially by Thursday when high temperatures of 50+ are possible. Unseasonably mild temperatures will be accompanied by a round of showers sometime later Thursday into early Friday with perhaps a period of strong southerly winds and heavy rain. A brief shot of much colder weather with another period of strong winds possible later Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Key Messages... * Accumulating snow ends by lunchtime across western MA/CT, but persists into the afternoon especially across eastern MA * Hourly snowfall rates generally on the lighter side...but brief bursts of moderate snow possible near the south coast Trend in high res guidance has been to shift the timing of the end of the steadiest snow from mid morning to the afternoon for much of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts. Model guidance, namely the HRRR and NAM3km have also begun to resolve an inverted trough and wrap around ocean effect snow extending from low pressure as it pulls away. Trough will be a good focus for vertical motion and moisture as omega increases to -10 to -15 ubar/sec. Sharply colder air filtering behind departing low pressure will introduce non-zero MLCAPE values which could help with ocean enhancement of any snowbands. Despite these favorable parameters, daytime will likely be limited by marginal sfc temps in the mid and even upper 30s. Temps may be locally lower under any ocean effect bands but its really going to take considerable rates to cool the PBL from the influence of 45-47F water temps. As a result, still think that advisory level snow totals 2-4" for RI/SE MA with localized 5-6" amounts possible near the south coast and Cape Cod. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Key Messages... * Very cold with wind chill values near or below zero * Windy conditions with gusts up to 40 mph Sunday Night and Monday The coldest airmass of the season thus far will move in behind the snow for Sunday night as 850mb temps crash into the -15C to -20C range. This will result in overnight low temperatures bottoming out in the single digits across the interior, to the low teens near the coastal plain. A strong pressure gradient will result in gusty winds overnight, around 25-40 mph. This will bring the windchill index/feels-like temperatures down to the 0F to -5F range, with -5F to -15F in the high terrain. MONDAY High pressure helps to keep an Arctic air mass in place through the day on Monday as GFS and Euro ensembles keep temperature anomalies near 10 degrees colder than normal. Other story Monday will be a steep pressure gradient keeping a stiff NW wind in place for the region. Wind gusts between 25 and 35 mph will make high temperatures in the teens (at higher elevations) and 20s elsewhere feel more like the single digits to lower teens at their warmest. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages... * A few brief snow showers possible Mon night, otherwise diminishing winds with low temps mainly in the teens * Dry & chilly Tue...Highs mainly in the lower to middle 30s * Turning milder Wed with continued dry weather & highs into the 40s * Showers with heavy rain & potential briefly strong southerly wind gusts later Thu into early Fri with unseasonably mild temps * Brief shot of much colder temps returns behind the front later Fri into Sat with another round of strong winds possible Details... Monday night into Tuesday... A weak shortwave may bring a few brief snow showers to the region Monday night. Otherwise...still chilly Mon night into Tue but with light winds. Low temperatures Mon night will mainly be in the teens. Highs on Tue will range from the upper 20s in the highest terrain to mainly the lower to middle 30s elsewhere. Wednesday... The developing -PNA and high pressure to our south sliding further east will allow for the beginning of a pattern change and milder temperatures. While it will remain dry on Wed, gusty southwest winds developing will push high temperatures well into the 40s. Thursday into Friday morning... Strong shortwave energy over the northern plains will move eastward into the Great Lakes. As this happens...strong surface low pressure perhaps sub 980 mb will pass well to our north across Quebec. Given the potential strength of the surface low pressure system...the long range guidance is indicating a strong southerly LLJ nearly 3 standard deviations outside climatology. Not only will this bring up unseasonably mild temperatures and Pwats exceeding 1 inch. This will combined with strong forcing ahead of the cold front and bring showers with perhaps brief heavy rain sometime later Thu into Fri. In addition...given the magnitude of the southerly LLJ we will have to watch for a brief period for strong surface wind gusts if the inversion is able to mix out. It is way too early to assess that...but depending on the timing temperatures may rise well into the 50s Thu night/early Fri and may even flirt with 60 degrees. If we are able to get mild enough...the potential for a period of strong winds to be realized will increase. Again...way too early to say much more than that but something to watch in the coming days. Later Friday into Saturday... Briefly turning much colder later Friday into Saturday behind the cold front. Mainly dry weather expected, but another period of strong winds this time from the west is possible immediately behind the cold front. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12z TAF Update.. Today...Moderate Confidence Light snow will result in a lot of IFR conditions this morning with vsbys in the 1-3 mile range. Bands of moderate snow and and LIFR conditions should mainly be confined to RI/SE MA. The light snow will end across western MA/CT by lunchtime, but linger into the afternoon east of the CT River Valley especially across eastern MA. So improvement to MVFR and even VFR conditions will be confined to mainly interior southern New England this afternoon. Tonight...High Confidence MVFR-IFR and even brief LIFR conditions are expected in areas towards the Cape and Islands in ocean effect snow showers. This activity should dissipate though after midnight. Otherwise, NW wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots with a few gusts near 30 knots across the high terrain and near the coast develop tonight. Monday...High Confidence Mainly VFR with NW gusts of 30-35 knots. A few CU but should be above MVFR ceilings. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Light snow continues much of the day with vsbys generally in the 1-3 mile range. The steady light snow should finally come to an end by late afternoon/early evening. Total snow accumulations of 1-3". KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Light snow ends by lunchtime with snow accumulations of 1-2" expected. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday: VFR. Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today Through Monday Night ...High confidence. Light N/NW winds through the early afternoon. Winds quickly increase to gales around 21z and gales continue through 20z Monday. Strong cold advection allows for ample mixing resulting in wind gusts between 35-40kts Sunday evening through Monday afternoon. Areas of very light freezing spray possible 00z Monday - 19z Monday. Elsewhere, small craft advisory conditions expected in Narragansett Bay and Boston Harbor. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of snow showers. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MAZ017>024. RI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for RIZ001>008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 3 PM EST Monday for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. && $$ |
| #1254444 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:27 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 618 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 615 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 - Showers and a few thunderstorms through this morning, with best chances of rain over metro SE Florida. - Marine conditions will begin deteriorating later tonight with hazardous boating conditions through Monday night. - High Risk of Rip Currents for all Atlantic beaches starting Monday early in the morning. A High Surf Advisory will also be in effect for Palm Beach and Broward counties later tonight. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 342 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 An area-wide field of stratiform coverage will continue to produce light to moderate rainfall through the rest of the morning hours with occasional embedded thunderstorms. Latest NBM and ensembles keep the canopy of clouds covering all of SoFlo through around noon, then a dry frontal passage will finally push all the lingering moisture back into the Atlantic by this evening. Consensus(CONSALL) PoP/QPF and high-res solutions keep the upper chances of rain in the 50-60 percent range through the late morning hours. 25th prct remain around 0.1-0.2 inches, with 90th prct keeping the possibility of isolated 2-3 inches before noon. However, based on latest HREF probs, WPC has removed the Atlantic metro areas from the marginal risk in their latest outlook. Behind the FROPA, reinforcing high pressure will quickly follow and by this evening another shot of northerly flow will bring colder/drier air advection across Soflo, with wind gusts reaching the 25-30 mph range over the Atlantic coast at times on Monday and Monday evening. Afternoon highs will remain warm today with low 80s across much of SoFlo, then a cooling trend begins in the wake of the FROPA with highs in the low-mid 70s on Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 309 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Global solutions remain in good agreement in bringing sprawling high pressure across the region in the wake of a FROPA for much the work week. POPs will remain in single digits through the long term. Therefore, expect generally benign and pleasant weather to prevail through the forecast period. Coolest day should be Tuesday with afternoon highs in the mid-upper 70s. Coldest morning should happen Tuesday before sunrise, with lows dipping into the low-mid 50s around Glades and northern Hendry counties. Warming trend then follows on Wednesday with highs back into the upper 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 SCT to BKN MVFR ceilings this morning. Light and variable winds early this morning becoming NW 5-10 kts later this morning through the early evening. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible through early this evening. Overnight winds increase to 10-15 kts out of the NNW and eventually become NNE by around 06Z with gusts of 20-25 kts possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 309 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Light winds will begin shifting northerly today while increasing behind a frontal passage. Conditions are expected to reach advisory later this evening for which a Small Craft Advisory has been issued. Winds of 25-30kt with higher gusts are expected, along with seas up to 12 feet over the Atlantic waters. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will still be possible through this afternoon. && .BEACHES... Issued at 309 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 High risk of rip currents for all Atlantic beaches starting Monday morning and continuing through the next several days as coastal winds become breezy behind a frontal passage. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 81 65 74 64 / 70 20 20 10 West Kendall 82 62 75 58 / 60 20 20 0 Opa-Locka 82 65 75 62 / 70 20 20 10 Homestead 82 65 76 63 / 60 20 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 80 65 73 64 / 70 30 20 0 N Ft Lauderdale 81 65 72 63 / 60 30 20 0 Pembroke Pines 82 64 75 61 / 70 30 20 0 West Palm Beach 81 65 71 62 / 60 30 10 0 Boca Raton 82 65 74 63 / 60 30 20 0 Naples 80 59 76 57 / 40 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ168-172. High Rip Current Risk from Monday morning through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ610. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ630. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ650-651-670-671. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676. && $$ |
| #1254443 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:27 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 520 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 516 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 * Fog, mist, low stratus possible again tonight. * Warmer than normal temperatures and mainly rain-free weather will prevail through next week. * Our next best chance for rain will be on Sunday in response to a cold front; medium (30-60%) chances on Sunday. * Another chance for showers and storms will be in the Tuesday through Wednesday timeframe. * Hazardous marine and coastal conditions are expected to develop on Sunday and persist through Monday in response to the cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1108 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 The forecast period for Deep South Texas and the Lower Rio Grande Valley will continue to consist of warmer than normal temps with a couple chances for rain. Environmentally, tonight will be similar to the past couple of nights (e.g light winds, clear skies, and plenty of low level moisture) and therefore suitable for the potential of fog, mist, and/or low stratus development. Due to the persistence in the pattern and expectations for sufficient radiational cooling through tonight, have opted to issue a Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Sunday morning for all of Deep South Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. Big changes to the weather pattern takes place on Sunday as a strong southward advancing cold front approaches the region. This cold front is associated with an Arctic 1040-1045 mb sfc high pressure system that will be established over the Midwest U.S. Increased sfc convergence and a nearby weak shortwave trough will increase the prospects for showers (maybe an isolated thunder or two as MLCAPE values will be as high as 500 J/kg) to develop over the region on Sunday. We`ve maintained medium (30-60%) chances for showers across Deep South Texas on Sunday. Rain chances diminish from north to south as the cold front sweeps through the region and shifts into northeastern Mexico Sunday evening/night. The other aspect of this cold front will be the winds. Windy conditions are expected to develop on Sunday. Courtesy of how strong the Arctic high is over the Midwest, along and behind the cold fropa, enhanced pressure gradients or tightening isobars will result in blustery northerly winds developing. Late morning through the afternoon and into the evening hours, strong north winds with speeds between 20-30 mph could gusts as high as 35-40 mph, particularly along and east of IH-69C. The strongest of winds will be closer to the coast. In fact, gale force winds are possible over the Gulf Waters (see MARINE SECTION for more details). This winds will decrease in time as the evening progresses. Tuesday through Wednesday is another period that we have to continue to monitor for the potential of showers and thunderstorms. During this time period, a return flow out of the south on the backside of a broad sfc high pressure system centered over the Southeastern U.S. and on the leeward side of a rather potent 575 mb mid-upper low pressure system over northern Mexico will result in increased moisture and warm air advection (WAA) Tuesday through Wednesday. Increased atmospheric moisture content and instability interacting with a nearby shortwave trough or weak frontal boundary plus impulses riding along the southwesterly jet aloft will result in increased prospects for showers and thunderstorms in the Tuesday through Wednesday timeframe. Low-medium (20-40%) PoPs have been established over Deep South Texas during this time period. The best chances looks to be Tuesday evening through Wednesday and the upper level low and associated perturbations get into closer proximity to the region. Areas along and east of IH-69C has the highest chances/risk. Again, we will continue to monitor these trends in the days ahead. A downtrend in temperatures can be expected Sunday through Monday before temperatures begin moderating/warming on Tuesday. Late next week into next weekend, the cold and wintry weather across the northern U.S. begins to retreat northward into Canada as flat ridging (low amplitude 500 mb pattern) envelopes a vast majority of the Lower 48, marking a major large scale weather pattern change towards the milder, less wintry side. For us here in Deep South Texas, this means a stabilized, warmer than normal pattern will solidly be in place with less risk of cool frontal passages and less fluctuations in temperatures. Overall, temps will continue to average out warmer than normal for the balance of the forecast period with daytime highs in the 80s most locations each day except for Sunday through Tuesday. Ahead of the cold front on Sunday, high temperatures will top out in the 70s most places early in the day before falling. Monday is progged to be the coolest day of the forecast period with daytime highs struggling to make it out of the 60s. Finally, on Tuesday, temperatures will begin to moderate as daytime highs are expected to climb back into the 70s most places. Wednesday through at least next Sunday, above normal temperatures will be driven by a 585-588 mb ridge. Overnight low temperatures will mainly be in the 60s during the forecast period. Sunday night into Monday will be the coolest with overnight lows in the 40s across the Northern Ranchlands and 50s along the RGV. Monday night into Tuesday, overnight lows will be in the 50s most places. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 516 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 LIFR conditions are currently in place at the aerodromes courtesy of dense fog. VFR will develop after sunrise and remain in place, especially after the mid-morning passage of a cold front. A TEMPO for precipitation, based on the HRRR model, has been included in each of the three TAFs. && .MARINE... Issued at 1108 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Deteriorating marine conditions is expected to take place over the next 6-12 hours as a cold front approaches the region. Along and behind the cold fropa, late Sunday morning, winds will shift out of the north and become gusty over the Laguna Madre and the Gulf Waters. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Laguna Madre and a Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf Waters through at least Sunday night. Adverse to hazardous marine conditions will linger into Monday. However, conditions will improve Monday night with low to moderate winds and seas returning and persisting through the remainder of the forecast period. Showers and thunderstorms are possible over the Gulf Waters on Sunday and again in the Tuesday through Wednesday time period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 75 54 63 58 / 50 20 10 0 HARLINGEN 72 51 63 55 / 40 10 0 0 MCALLEN 74 52 62 57 / 50 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 72 49 60 54 / 60 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 71 60 63 62 / 50 20 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 72 55 63 59 / 50 20 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for TXZ248>255- 351-353>355-451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ130-132-135. Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ150-155-170-175. && $$ |
| #1254442 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:27 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 618 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Showers across the forecast area early this morning will gradually diminish over the course of today. -Generally gentle northeast to east breezes will back to the north and freshen by tonight. Small Craft Advisories may be needed for some, or all, of our local waters by either tonight or Monday morning. -As high pressure builds over the region mid-week, mild, mostly dry conditions will be expected with gentle to moderate breezes. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 457 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Weather conditions along the island chain have essentially plateaued during the overnight shift as persistent, but light, showers lingered. MRMS estimates rainfall totals over the past six hours have been up to a third of an inch across our island communities, but pockets of heavier showers over the distant Florida Straits may have produced approximately 3 to 5 inches. If those showers had moved over any portion of the Keys, this would have been a slam dunk for flooding. Fortunately, we do not need flood products for our local sea life. Automated observations are reporting temperatures in the lower 70s with dew points only a few degrees behind. While not terrible, the moisture is noticeable in the air when stepping outside. Upper level support is still in place to support morning showers, but this support will gradually be pushed away today as troughing digs into the area. While this does mean that showers will gradually diminish, there is a tradeoff. Breezes will freshen drastically in the wake of the front, and Small Craft Advisories may be needed as early as tonight. The northerly component to our winds will also keep temperatures on the cooler side, and highs over the next couple of days will reach the upper 70s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. High pressure building in will keep weather fairly benign over the middle of the week, and ensemble guidance suggests the next opportunity for meaningful rainfall may not be until the weekend. Even then, the agreement among ensemble members isn`t great with respect to timing and rainfall amounts. && .MARINE... Issued at 457 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters, but Small Craft Advisories may be needed by tonight due to freshening breezes. From synopsis, showers during the early morning will gradually diminish today. Generally gentle northeast to east breezes this morning will back to the north and freshen as a frontal boundary approaches the Florida Keys marine zones tonight. In the wake of the front, fresh to strong northeasterly breezes are expected through at least Tuesday. Breezes slacken starting Wednesday but will remain gentle to moderate at times. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 457 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Widespread shower activity early this morning is intermittently impacting both terminals. This activity will gradually taper off as it moves eastward and clears the terminals by midday at the latest. Despite this, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals through the entirety of the TAF period. Some drops into MVFR or IFR CIGs and visbility are possible with stronger showers, as is some isolated thunderstorm activity, but the transient nature of these episodes leaves enough uncertainty to preclude explicit mention for now, instead leaving details for future issuances and amendments as needed. East to southeast winds will back to northerly through the afternoon, though potential crosswind issues with increased wind speeds are not expected until Monday morning. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1871, the daily record rainfall of 2.40" was recorded at Key West. Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 80 68 78 68 / 50 20 10 20 Marathon 77 68 75 68 / 50 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1254441 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:12 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 601 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A powerful arctic cold front will blast through the Carolinas today. High pressure following the front will bring very cold temperatures Sunday night through Monday night. Temperatures will then gradually warm up Tuesday and Wednesday with another mainly dry cold frontal passage expected Thursday night. && .UPDATE... Aviation and WWA update. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Big story continues to be the frigid air mass that will follow the cold front moving into the forecast area right around daybreak. The mid to late morning timing of the front will result in high temperatures occurring in the morning, making the high temp forecast very uncertain. Impressive cold advection begins within an hour or two of fropa and by noon the entire forecast area will be under the influence of strong cold advection. Temperatures will tumble through the afternoon, on their way to mid teens tonight. Strong, gusty winds develop with the arrival of the cold air, and as skies clear out gusts get an extra boost. Gusts approaching 40 mph are not out of the realm of possibility in areas where skies clear out several hours before sunset. Breezy conditions continue this evening and overnight. Near record cold coupled with winds 15-20 mph will lead to wind chill values under 10 degrees. Winds do start to ease a few hours prior to daybreak which helps keep wind chills above the magic 5 degree mark needed for an Extreme Cold Warning. Have dropped the Extreme Cold Watch and opted for a Cold Weather Advisory based on the latest forecast. The front will be accompanied by a narrow band of scattered to widely scattered showers. Just ahead of the front there is narrow band of precipitable water in excess of 200% of normal. Frontal convergence should be enough to overcome the somewhat stable surface layer and tap into the weak elevated instability. Limited moisture above 10k ft, barely above the freezing layer, so no concern of thunder given the low topped nature of any showers that develop. Low level jet of 30-40 kt may lead to some gusty winds with stronger showers, but nothing damaging. Overall rainfall will be limited due to the narrow nature of the moisture and rapid movement of the showers, 30+ mph. Most areas will see no more than 0.10". && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Modified Arctic air mass will be settling over the Carolinas into Monday. This very dry and chilly air will lead to temps struggling to reach 40 degrees. Could be near record low max aftn temps with dewpoint temps in the single digits, down close to 0 by aftn. The very dry air mass will maintain zero chance of rain through the period. The stiff northerly winds will diminish through the day as the center of the high migrates nearly overhead. By Mon eve, the winds will back around to the SW as the center shifts offshore, but winds should die off keeping overnight lows down close to 20 degrees most places inland of coast with better radiational cooling. Air mass will begin to modify with WAA in southerly return flow. H5 heights will rise with weak ridging in the mid to upper levels. The 850 temps will be on the rise after bottoming out around -8c early Monday morning. Temps will rebound a good 25 to 30 degrees up to near or above 50 Tues aftn. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Air mass will continue to modify in southerly return flow as high pressure shifts farther offshore. Temps will reach near or just above 60 under December sunshine on Wed. A warming trend will continue until mid to upper trough pushes a cold front through Fri. Temps will reach into the 60s on Thurs and 70s on Friday ahead of the front. As it looks right now, best chance of pcp will be ahead of the front Friday morning. Temps will drop behind the front on Sat but may remain above normal. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short window of MVFR bordering on IFR possible from 12Z to 16Z today, perhaps as late as 17Z along the NC coast, as a strong cold front moves across the region. Showers along the front will briefly lower ceilings under 2k ft and drop visibilities to 3-5 SM. Threat of MVFR/IFR rapidly decreases by midday with VFR quick to return. Bigger story will be strong, gusty winds. Ahead of the front, low level wind shear will be a concern, especially at inland terminals where surface winds are weaker. Once the front passes winds will quickly shift to west then northwest with speeds 15-20 kt and potential for gusts around 30 kt. Gusty winds will continue in the evening decreasing after midnight with gusts dropping out between 09Z and 12Z. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR through the extended period. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Gale Warning remains in effect for all of the waters. A strong cold front will move offshore early this afternoon. Brief period of strong offshore flow in the wake of the front will lead to winds 30- 35kt with higher gusts. Duration of gale force winds may end up being a little shorter than the current warning, but whenever the gale does come down a small craft advisory will be needed. Although conditions will be improving the advisory is likely to run past daybreak Mon. Seas 3-5 ft today build to 4-7 ft tonight due to the strength of the northwest flow. Seas will be a mix of dominant wind waves and background swell from the southeast. Wind wave will be southwest into the afternoon but then a northerly wind wave develops and quickly becomes the dominant wave. Monday through Thursday...Small Craft Advisory conditions will be coming to an end mid to late Mon morning as gradient relaxes as high pressure migrates across the Southeast reaching closer overhead by late Mon. The high will shift farther offshore and out into the Atlantic leaving the area waters in a light southerly return flow through midweek until next cold front moves through on friday. Seas will be down to 3 ft or less by Mon eve and will remain that way until cold front approaches on Fri. && .CLIMATE... Record Low Temps for Dec 15: KILM: 17 / 2010 KLBT: 13 / 2010 KCRE: 17 / 1944 KFLO: 13 / 2010 Record Low High Temps for Dec 15: KILM: 34 / 1958 KLBT: 37 / 1949 KCRE: 40 / 2010 KFLO: 35 / 1958 && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. SC...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1254440 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:57 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 548 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Cold Weather Advisory Late Tonight & Monday Morning. Wind Chills: 12-25F for Southeast GA, Suwannee Valley & Portions of Inland Northeast FL. Wind Advisory for Coastal Northeast FL from Early this Evening through Early Monday Morning. - Freeze Warning for Southeast GA, the Suwannee Valley and Portions of Inland Northeast FL Tonight & Monday Morning. Freeze Watches Issued for Monday Night and Early Tuesday Morning. Hard Freezes Likely Across Inland Southeast GA Early on Monday & Tuesday Mornings. Light Freezes for the Suwannee Valley & Portions of Inland Northeast FL. - Gale Warning for the Local Atlantic Coastal Waters from Late this Afternoon through Early Monday Morning. High Surf Advisory for Coastal St. Johns and Flagler Counties from Late Tonight through Early Monday Evening. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... IFR to LIFR conditions at VQQ will continue through around 13Z. Periods of MVFR visibilities will be possible through around 13Z at CRG. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through around 15Z. MVFR ceilings from 2,000-3,000 feet along an Arctic cold front will move over the SSI terminal from around 16Z-19Z, with these ceilings shifting southward across the Duval County terminals from 18Z-21Z and then impacting GNV and SGJ from 19Z-22Z. VFR conditions will then prevail at the regional terminals by 23Z. Southerly surface winds sustained at 5-10 knots will prevail overnight at SSI, with light southwesterly winds developing at the northeast FL terminals after 09Z. Surface winds will shift to westerly and will increase to 5-10 knots by 15Z, followed by winds shifting to northwesterly and steadily increasing to 15-20 knots with higher gusts after 17Z. Surface winds will then shift to north northeasterly after 00Z, with sustained speeds increasing to 15-25 knots with higher gusts at SGJ and SSI by 03Z, while speeds at the inland terminals remain sustained in the 10-15 knot range with occasional higher gusts. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Overnight surface analysis depicts Arctic high pressure (1042 millibars) building over the Plains states and the Upper Midwest, which was pushing a strong cold front across the lower Mississippi Valley, the southern Appalachians, and the Mid-Atlantic states. Aloft...troughing pivoting across the Great Lakes was sharpening as it digs southeastward. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough embedded within southwesterly flow downstream of the digging longwave trough was spreading rainfall and embedded convection across south FL and the Bahamas. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that PWATs generally remain between 0.75 - 1 inch across our region, with values above 1 inch located south of Interstate 4 in the FL peninsula and also north of the Altamaha / Ocmulgee Rivers in southeast GA. A narrow ribbon of deeper moisture located along the Arctic cold front was fostering a line of moderate to briefly heavy showers that were moving southeastward across west central GA and south central portions of AL. Mid- level cloud cover was migrating across the skies for locations north of Waycross in southeast GA, while a few pockets of mostly high altitude cloudiness were moving across northeast and north central FL. Temperatures and dewpoints at 08Z generally ranged from the mid 40s to the mid 50s, except around 60 for coastal southeast GA, where a southerly breeze prevailed. Troughing will continue to sharpen today as it pivots across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states, with this trough taking on a more negative tilt as it swings across New England and offshore of the Mid-Atlantic states tonight. This potent trough will drive an Arctic cold front across southeast GA this morning, and then through the rest of our region during the early to mid afternoon hours. Shower activity along this front over west central GA and south central AL will likely wane in coverage as it approaches the Altamaha / Ocmulgee Rivers after sunrise, with a ribbon of low to mid level cloud cover accompanying the frontal passage at it shifts across our region. The Arctic dome of high pressure will continue to build as it shifts southeastward across the Upper Midwest, with this feature then expanding and gradually weakening overnight over the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of this approaching Arctic cold front, west-southwesterly flow may increase low level moisture values enough to advect low stratus clouds and areas of locally dense fog across northeast and north central FL during the predawn and early morning hours. Meanwhile, surface winds will shift to west-northwesterly as the front moves across the Altamaha / Ocmulgee Rivers during the early to mid morning hours, with a few sprinkles possible beneath a deck of thick stratocumulus clouds across inland southeast GA this morning. Measurable rainfall appears to be unlikely, with chances around or less than 10 percent. Cold air advection will then overspread southeast GA this afternoon, with morning temperatures in the 60s then falling through the 50s as winds shift to northwesterly and become breezy by early afternoon. Temperatures will then fall into the upper 40s for locations north of Waycross towards sunset. Low stratus clouds and areas of locally dense fog across northeast and north central FL early this morning will quickly dissipate by mid-morning as a west-northwesterly breeze develops. Highs will climb to the 70-75 range across most of northeast and north central FL during the early to mid afternoon hours, except mid/upper 60s for northern portions of the Suwannee Valley, where the Arctic front will move through around the noon hour. Temperatures will then tumble through the 60s this afternoon as winds shift to northwesterly and become breezy in the wake of the Arctic frontal passage, with 50s expected across northern portions of the Suwannee Valley before sunset this evening. Arctic high pressure will shove the cold front southward across the FL peninsula tonight, with our local pressure gradient continuing to tighten this evening in the wake of this frontal passage. Winds will shift to northerly around sunset and then north-northeasterly overnight as the Arctic dome of high pressure wedges down the southeastern seaboard. Wind speeds will continue to increase tonight for locations east of I-95, and a Wind Advisory has been issued for coastal northeast FL, where sustained speeds of 20-25 mph will frequently gust to 40-45 mph through around sunrise on Monday. These strong onshore winds will keep lows in the 40s along the northeast FL coast tonight. Winds speeds at inland locations will remain sustained in the 10-15 mph range, which will create a wind chill hazard during the predawn and early morning hours on Monday as strong cold air advection results in temperatures plummeting overnight. A hard advective freeze is likely across inland southeast GA, where lows will fall to the low and mid 20s. Wind chill values will fall to around 15 degrees during the predawn and early morning hours on Monday for these locations, prompting a Cold Weather Advisory. A light advective freeze is forecast for coastal southeast GA, the Suwannee Valley, and portions of inland northeast FL by the predawn and early morning hours on Monday, where lows will fall to the upper 20s and lower 30s. Wind chill values will fall to the 20-25 degree range towards sunrise on Monday, prompting a Cold Weather Advisory. Lows elsewhere for inland north central FL will generally fall to the 35-40 degree range, with wind chill values dropping to around 30 towards sunrise on Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will continue to build south and eastward throughout the day on Monday, settling in possibly the coldest and driest airmass of the winter season so far. Winds will turn more northeasterly throughout the day as the high pressure ridge builds southward, and be quite breezy through the morning hours and into the early afternoon before rather quickly subsiding during the evening and after sunset. Winds will range from the 10-15G20 range over inland GA to around 15-20G30 closer to the coast and over much of northeast FL, and combined with highs in the 40s and 50s will make the air feel up to 5-10 degrees colder. Weak troughing along the coastal waters will result in scattered cloud cover over eastern counties, with mostly sunny skies expected inland. Monday night, the high will settle over southern GA, with weak troughing remaining over the coastal waters and keeping a light north to northeasterly breeze around 5-10 mph overnight closer to the coast and St. Johns River Basin. Across much of the interior, radiational cooling conditions will be much more favorable closer to the high pressure center, and therefore a rather wide range in low temperatures is expected Monday Night. Lows in the low to mid 20s will be common over inland SE GA, upper 20s to mid 30s are forecast north and west of the St. Johns River Basin and Upper Suwannee River Valley in northeast FL, and upper 30s to mid 40s will be expected for the NE FL coast/areas furthest south and east. With the prime radiational cooling conditions the further north and west you go, a Freeze Watch has been posted for much of the interior Monday Night, where areas/widespread frost is also likely. High pressure slowly shifts eastward into the Atlantic throughout the day Tuesday and through Tuesday Night, gradually shifting the light north to northeast winds towards towards the east-northeast to east. This will help to moderate our temperatures rather quickly on Tuesday, though still trending a bit below normal with highs ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s north to the mid to upper 60s south. The coastal trough, albeit weaker on Tuesday, will keep a few low clouds around closer to the coast with plenty of sunshine elsewhere. Though the airmass will be moderated somewhat, conditions will still be rather favorable for radiational cooling Tuesday Night, with lows in the 30s likely across inland GA with 40s expected elsewhere. The only limiting factor will be some increasing mid and high clouds across the area Tuesday Night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The area will remain on the western periphery of the above mentioned high pressure ridge Wednesday before shifting further offshore Thursday ahead of the next frontal system taking shape over the Plains. The next frontal system will move through the area around Friday and Friday Night, though it does not look to be as strong as the system from earlier in the week. Rain chances also look limited with this system at this time, with drought conditions expected to continue through the long term. Temperatures will be near normal Wednesday, trending above normal for Thursday and Friday before likely falling closer to normal into the start of the weekend after the frontal system moves through. && .MARINE... An Arctic cold front will cross the Georgia waters towards noon today and will continue southward across the northeast Florida waters during the early to mid afternoon hours. Winds will shift to northwesterly and will steadily increase this afternoon through tonight. Small Craft Advisory conditions will develop early this afternoon across the Georgia waters, followed by winds shifting to northerly towards sunset and then northeasterly after midnight. Frequent Gale force wind gusts will develop late this afternoon and will continue through around sunrise on Monday throughout our local waters as strong high pressure wedges down the southeastern seaboard. Coastal troughing will then develop over our local waters on Monday and Monday night, developing scattered showers, mainly offshore. Weakening high pressure will then shift southward towards our area on Tuesday, allowing winds and seas to quickly subside. High pressure will then shift offshore on Wednesday afternoon, with scattered showers possible by Thursday and Thursday night in advance of a weakening frontal boundary that will be entering the southeastern states. This front will likely cross the Georgia waters on Friday morning and may then stall over the northeast Florida waters by Friday night. Rip Currents: Southeast GA Moderate Today, High on Monday Northeast FL Low Today, High Monday && .FIRE WEATHER... A strong cold front will move southeast across the area today and into tonight, ushering in a much drier and cooler airmass into the region. Strong high pressure will build behind this boundary through Monday. Rain chances will be very low with the front (around 5-10%), with the main impact along with drier conditions being breezy northwest to northerly winds in the 10-20G30 mph range inland and 15- 25G40 mph range near the coast. Conditions will approach elevated fire danger over interior southeast GA this afternoon and evening behind the front, though minRH values are expected to only reach about 30-35%. Dispersions will be good to borderline high area wide today. Very dry airmass will linger through monday with RH values in the 20-30% range over inland GA, though fortunately winds will subside essentially throughout the day. Weaker winds and lower dispersions will return Tuesday and into mid week as high pressure settles almost directly over the area. The next frontal boundary doesn`t look to approach the region until about Friday. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: A hard freeze and dangerous wind chills are expected for most of the area Monday morning, though winds will be too strong for frost in most areas. Widespread Frost will be likely over SE GA and inland NE FL Monday night. Areas of frost likely inland SE GA once again Tuesday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 63 24 44 23 / 10 0 0 0 SSI 68 32 47 36 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 70 32 51 34 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 72 44 56 45 / 0 0 10 0 GNV 73 33 56 35 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 75 39 59 38 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for FLZ021- 023-024-030-031-035-120-124-125-132-136-220-225-232-236- 322-325-422-425-522. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for FLZ021-023- 024-030-031-035-120-124-136-220-225-232-236-322-422-425- 522. Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-136-220-232-236-322-422- 425-522. Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. High Surf Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ138-233- 333. GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ132>136- 149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ450-470. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1254439 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:24 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 408 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 333 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 - Cold front will cross the area this afternoon and evening and bring windy conditions tonight along the coast where a Wind Advisory has been posted. Breezy/gusty north winds over the interior during the night. - Boating conditions will rapidly deteriorate late today across the Volusia waters where a Gale Warning will go into effect. These strong north winds will then quickly overspread all the waters this evening. - Breaking waves of 7 to 9 feet will develop tonight and early Monday, briefly up to 10 ft along the Volusia coast. Rough, pounding surf with numerous rip currents and minor beach erosion especially around high tide early Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Today-Mon...Isolated to scattered showers across southern sections where deeper moisture resides as well as some upper support. The higher coverage will occur over the adjacent Atlc (south of the Cape) and this is where the best chance for lightning strikes will occur. Meanwhile, strong high pressure (1043mb) over the central US this morning will build SE and sweep a cold front across the area this afternoon and this evening. The resulting tightening of the NW-N pressure gradient will produce windy conditions tonight along the coast. A Wind Advisory has been posted for the FL east coast for 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph possible. The strongest winds will occur along the immediate coast (barrier islands). Winds will remain unusually breezy/gusty (15-25mph) for nighttime over the interior. These strong N/NE winds will produce rough, pounding surf and minor beach erosion tonight into Mon. Breaking waves of 7-9 FT are forecast, briefly up to 10 FT along the Volusia coast. So a High Surf Advisory has been issued. Fortunately the duration of these winds/seas will be very short. The high tide of most concern will be early Mon between 4am-5am. The high pressure steadily weakens Mon as it reaches the deep South and this will loosen the pressure gradient somewhat and allow winds to begin to decrease Mon aftn. But it will remain breezy/gusty esp along the coast with considerable cloudiness and a passing coastal shower cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will be above normal today in the mid to upper 70s then noticeably cooler behind the front on Monday with max temps holding in the 60s. Tue-Sat...The high pressure will push seaward Tue while continuing to weaken with a trailing axis across north Florida through mid week. This will result in veering wind flow becoming SE Wed-Thu with speeds 15 mph or less. The next cold front is forecast to approach Friday and push through Fri night or Sat. Currently have a mostly dry forecast with this frontal passage but rain chances may need to be introduced late week. Temperatures will be on a gradual warming trend into late week. Afternoon highs will generally be in the low 70s on Tuesday, mid 70s on Wednesday, and upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s Tuesday night, mid to upper 50s on Wednesday night, and upper 50s to low 60s on Thursday night and Friday night. && .MARINE... Issued at 333 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Favorable boating conditions will start out this Sunday morning with winds 10 knots or less and seas 2 FT. But conditions will deteriorate this afternoon and especially this evening/overnight as strong high pressure builds over the area behind a cold front. North winds increase 20-25 knots by sunset across the northern (Volusia) waters will overspread the remainder of our coastal waters this evening with rapidly building seas especially in the Gulf Stream. A Gale Warning has been posted for the Volusia Atlc waters for frequent gusts to gale force (34 knots) while solid Small Craft Advisory conditions will exist elsewhere with occasional gusts to gale force possible. Seas will build rapidly to 13 FT in the Gulf Stream tonight into Monday with 7-10 FT nearshore. The high pressure will weaken as it settles into the SE US Mon so wind speeds will drop below 20 knots Mon aftn but seas will be slower to subside given the NE wind component. The high will push seaward through mid week and winds will veer east then southeast in response and the pressure gradient supporting 10-14 knots. It will take a little while for seas to subside below 7 FT in the Gulf Stream so have extended the SCA there slightly. But once we lose the north wind component, seas will subside below 6 FT Tue night and below 5 FT Wed. Seas nearshore will be 3 FT Wed-Thu as winds develop a SE component. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1238 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Confidence in fog impacts at northern ECFL terminals, including KMCO, has decreased considerably since the last TAF package. Chances have dropped from 50-70% for MVFR, 30-50% for IFR, and 20-40% to LIFR in the 00Z guidance to 20-40% for MVFR, and 10-20% for IFR-LIFR in the latest 05Z guidance. GFS LAMP is now calling for prevailing VFR. Since the previous TAF package was already pretty conservative given the guidance at the time, and to avoid over correction, no significant changes were made and continue to call for prevailing MVFR from around 08Z-14Z at all northern terminals, and TEMPO IFR at KSFB, KLEE, and KTIX where the 20-30% chances continue. To the south, starting to see a few heavy showers creep closer to KSUA, which could cause convective impacts between 07Z-11Z. There`s potential for this activity to reach KFPR-KVRB but not confident enough for TEMPOs at this time. This activity expected to shift offshore by 14Z. Winds will turn northerly and increase to 13-18 kts with gusts 20-30 kts after Sunday evening after 23Z as a cold front pushes through Central Florida. Winds diminish a little by late Monday morning to 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts as they shift to the northeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 50 61 49 / 0 0 10 10 MCO 78 52 64 49 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 78 56 67 55 / 10 0 10 10 VRB 79 58 69 55 / 30 10 10 10 LEE 77 45 62 44 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 79 50 64 47 / 0 0 10 0 ORL 77 50 64 48 / 0 0 10 0 FPR 80 58 69 54 / 30 10 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747. High Surf Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ141-154- 159-164-347-447-647-747. AM...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ550-570. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ552. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ555-575. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ572. && $$ |
| #1254438 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:21 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 416 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Fast moving low pressure will bring accumulating snow to the region into midday especially south of the Massachusetts turnpike. The snow will linger into the afternoon across Rhode Island and especially across far eastern Massachusetts where it may persist into this evening. A brief shot of arctic air follows tonight into Monday, with wind chill values dropping to between 0 to 10 below zero. Cold weather continues Monday night into Tuesday but with much lighter winds. A warming trend begins Wednesday and especially by Thursday when high temperatures of 50+ are possible. Unseasonably mild temperatures will be accompanied by a round of showers sometime later Thursday into early Friday with perhaps a period of strong southerly winds and heavy rain. A brief shot of much colder weather with another period of strong winds possible later Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Key Messages... * Accumulating snow ends by lunchtime across western MA/CT, but persists into the afternoon especially across eastern MA * Hourly snowfall rates generally on the lighter side...but brief bursts of moderate snow possible near the south coast Trend in high res guidance has been to shift the timing of the end of the steadiest snow from mid morning to the afternoon for much of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts. Model guidance, namely the HRRR and NAM3km have also begun to resolve an inverted trough and wrap around ocean effect snow extending from low pressure as it pulls away. Trough will be a good focus for vertical motion and moisture as omega increases to -10 to -15 ubar/sec. Sharply colder air filtering behind departing low pressure will introduce non-zero MLCAPE values which could help with ocean enhancement of any snowbands. Despite these favorable parameters, daytime will likely be limited by marginal sfc temps in the mid and even upper 30s. Temps may be locally lower under any ocean effect bands but its really going to take considerable rates to cool the PBL from the influence of 45-47F water temps. As a result, still think that advisory level snow totals 2-4" for RI/SE MA with localized 5-6" amounts possible near the south coast and Cape Cod. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Key Messages... * Very cold with wind chill values near or below zero * Windy conditions with gusts up to 40 mph Sunday Night and Monday The coldest airmass of the season thus far will move in behind the snow for Sunday night as 850mb temps crash into the -15C to -20C range. This will result in overnight low temperatures bottoming out in the single digits across the interior, to the low teens near the coastal plain. A strong pressure gradient will result in gusty winds overnight, around 25-40 mph. This will bring the windchill index/feels-like temperatures down to the 0F to -5F range, with -5F to -15F in the high terrain. MONDAY High pressure helps to keep an Arctic air mass in place through the day on Monday as GFS and Euro ensembles keep temperature anomalies near 10 degrees colder than normal. Other story Monday will be a steep pressure gradient keeping a stiff NW wind in place for the region. Wind gusts between 25 and 35 mph will make high temperatures in the teens (at higher elevations) and 20s elsewhere feel more like the single digits to lower teens at their warmest. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages... * A few brief snow showers possible Mon night, otherwise diminishing winds with low temps mainly in the teens * Dry & chilly Tue...Highs mainly in the lower to middle 30s * Turning milder Wed with continued dry weather & highs into the 40s * Showers with heavy rain & potential briefly strong southerly wind gusts later Thu into early Fri with unseasonably mild temps * Brief shot of much colder temps returns behind the front later Fri into Sat with another round of strong winds possible Details... Monday night into Tuesday... A weak shortwave may bring a few brief snow showers to the region Monday night. Otherwise...still chilly Mon night into Tue but with light winds. Low temperatures Mon night will mainly be in the teens. Highs on Tue will range from the upper 20s in the highest terrain to mainly the lower to middle 30s elsewhere. Wednesday... The developing -PNA and high pressure to our south sliding further east will allow for the beginning of a pattern change and milder temperatures. While it will remain dry on Wed, gusty southwest winds developing will push high temperatures well into the 40s. Thursday into Friday morning... Strong shortwave energy over the northern plains will move eastward into the Great Lakes. As this happens...strong surface low pressure perhaps sub 980 mb will pass well to our north across Quebec. Given the potential strength of the surface low pressure system...the long range guidance is indicating a strong southerly LLJ nearly 3 standard deviations outside climatology. Not only will this bring up unseasonably mild temperatures and Pwats exceeding 1 inch. This will combined with strong forcing ahead of the cold front and bring showers with perhaps brief heavy rain sometime later Thu into Fri. In addition...given the magnitude of the southerly LLJ we will have to watch for a brief period for strong surface wind gusts if the inversion is able to mix out. It is way too early to assess that...but depending on the timing temperatures may rise well into the 50s Thu night/early Fri and may even flirt with 60 degrees. If we are able to get mild enough...the potential for a period of strong winds to be realized will increase. Again...way too early to say much more than that but something to watch in the coming days. Later Friday into Saturday... Briefly turning much colder later Friday into Saturday behind the cold front. Mainly dry weather expected, but another period of strong winds this time from the west is possible immediately behind the cold front. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z Update Today...Moderate Confidence Expecting snow to end between 15/16z and 16/18z from northwest to southeast, but lingers to around 00z towards the southeast New England coast. Otherwise, improvement to VFR conditions expected from W to E. Light SW winds tonight shift to the NW at 5 to 10 kt then 15-25 kt after 21z. Could see some gusts up to 30 kt for the evening push. Tonight...High Confidence VFR outside the the outer-Cape/Nantucket where ocean effect snow showers may persist Sunday evening. This activity should dissipate though after midnight. Otherwise, NW wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots with a few gusts near 30 knots across the high terrain and near the coast develop Sunday night. Monday...High Confidence Mainly VFR with NW gusts of 30-35 knots. A few CU but should be above MVFR ceilings. KBOS Terminal... High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in timing. Snow continues through much of the day with wrap-around snow showers possibly continuing as late as 21-00z. NW winds increase to 10-15 kt w/ gusts up to 30 kt after 21z. Total snow accumulations of 1-3". KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Snow ends after 18z w/ NW winds increasing to 10-15 kt w/ gusts up to 25 kts after 20z. Total snow accumulations of 1-3" Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday: VFR. Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today Through Monday Night ...High confidence. Light N/NW winds through the early afternoon. Winds quickly increase to gales around 21z and gales continue through 20z Monday. Strong cold advection allows for ample mixing resulting in wind gusts between 35-40kts Sunday evening through Monday afternoon. Areas of very light freezing spray possible 00z Monday - 19z Monday. Elsewhere, small craft advisory conditions expected in Narragansett Bay and Boston Harbor. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of snow showers. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MAZ017>024. RI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for RIZ001>008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 3 PM EST Monday for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. && $$ |
| #1254437 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:48 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 344 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...NEW SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 341 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 - Showers and a few thunderstorms through this morning, with best chances of rain over metro SE Florida. Periods of heavy rainfall may result in localized flooding. - Marine conditions will begin deteriorating later tonight with hazardous boating conditions through Monday night. - High Risk of Rip Currents for all Atlantic beaches starting Monday early in the morning. A High Surf Advisory will also be in effect for Palm Beach and Broward counties later tonight. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 342 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 An area-wide field of stratiform coverage will continue to produce light to moderate rainfall through the rest of the morning hours with occasional embedded thunderstorms. Latest NBM and ensembles keep the canopy of clouds covering all of SoFlo through around noon, then a dry frontal passage will finally push all the lingering moisture back into the Atlantic by this evening. Consensus(CONSALL) PoP/QPF and high-res solutions keep the upper chances of rain in the 50-60 percent range through the late morning hours. 25th prct remain around 0.1-0.2 inches, with 90th prct keeping the possibility of isolated 2-3 inches before noon. However, based on latest HREF probs, WPC has removed the Atlantic metro areas from the marginal risk in their latest outlook. Behind the FROPA, reinforcing high pressure will quickly follow and by this evening another shot of northerly flow will bring colder/drier air advection across Soflo, with wind gusts reaching the 25-30 mph range over the Atlantic coast at times on Monday and Monday evening. Afternoon highs will remain warm today with low 80s across much of SoFlo, then a cooling trend begins in the wake of the FROPA with highs in the low-mid 70s on Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 309 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Global solutions remain in good agreement in bringing sprawling high pressure across the region in the wake of a FROPA for much the work week. POPs will remain in single digits through the long term. Therefore, expect generally benign and pleasant weather to prevail through the forecast period. Coolest day should be Tuesday with afternoon highs in the mid-upper 70s. Coldest morning should happen Tuesday before sunrise, with lows dipping into the low-mid 50s around Glades and northern Hendry counties. Warming trend then follows on Wednesday with highs back into the upper 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 ESE winds 5-10 kts along with scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through this morning. Winds become WNW 10-15 kts and gusty early this afternoon. Periods of MVFR/IFR cigs still possible with the heavier showers. && .MARINE... Issued at 309 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Light winds will begin shifting northerly today while increasing behind a frontal passage. Conditions are expected to reach advisory later this evening for which a Small Craft Advisory has been issued. Winds of 25-30kt with higher gusts are expected, along with seas up to 12 feet over the Atlantic waters. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will still be possible through this afternoon. && .BEACHES... Issued at 309 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 High risk of rip currents for all Atlantic beaches starting Monday morning and continuing through the next several days as coastal winds become breezy behind a frontal passage. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 81 65 74 64 / 70 20 20 10 West Kendall 82 62 75 58 / 60 20 20 0 Opa-Locka 82 65 75 62 / 70 20 20 10 Homestead 82 65 76 63 / 60 20 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 80 65 73 64 / 70 30 20 0 N Ft Lauderdale 81 65 72 63 / 60 30 20 0 Pembroke Pines 82 64 75 61 / 70 30 20 0 West Palm Beach 81 65 71 62 / 60 30 10 0 Boca Raton 82 65 74 63 / 60 30 20 0 Naples 80 59 76 57 / 40 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ168-172. High Rip Current Risk from Monday morning through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for AMZ610. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ630-650-651-670-671. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676. && $$ |
| #1254436 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:33 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 318 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 309 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 - Showers and a few thunderstorms through this morning, with best chances of rain over metro SE Florida. Periods of heavy rainfall may result in localized flooding. - Marine conditions will begin deteriorating later tonight with hazardous boating conditions through Monday night. - High Risk of Rip Currents for all Atlantic beaches starting Monday early in the morning. A High Surf Advisory will also be in effect for Palm Beach and Broward counties later tonight. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 309 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 An area-wide field of stratiform coverage will continue to produce light to moderate rainfall through the rest of the morning hours with occasional embedded thunderstorms. Latest NBM and ensembles keep the canopy of clouds covering all of SoFlo through around noon, then a dry frontal passage will finally push all the lingering moisture back into the Atlantic by this evening. Consensus(CONSALL) PoP/QPF and high-res solutions keep the upper chances of rain in the 50-60 percent range through the late morning hours. 25th prct remain around 0.1-0.2 inches, with 90th prct keeping the possibility of isolated 2-3 inches before noon. Also, based on latest HREF probs, WPC is still keeping the Atlantic metro areas under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall (>5% chance) through the morning hours. Behind the FROPA, reinforcing high pressure will quickly follow and by this evening another shot of northerly flow will bring colder/drier air advection across Soflo, with wind gusts reaching the 25-30 mph range over the Atlantic coast at times on Monday and Monday evening. Afternoon highs will remain warm today with low 80s across much of SoFlo, then a cooling trend begins in the wake of the FROPA with highs in the low-mid 70s on Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 309 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Global solutions remain in good agreement in bringing sprawling high pressure across the region in the wake of a FROPA for much the work week. POPs will remain in single digits through the long term. Therefore, expect generally benign and pleasant weather to prevail through the forecast period. Coolest day should be Tuesday with afternoon highs in the mid-upper 70s. Coldest morning should happen Tuesday before sunrise, with lows dipping into the low-mid 50s around Glades and northern Hendry counties. Warming trend then follows on Wednesday with highs back into the upper 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 ESE winds 5-10 kts along with scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through this morning. Winds become WNW 10-15 kts and gusty early this afternoon. Periods of MVFR/IFR cigs still possible with the heavier showers. && .MARINE... Issued at 309 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Light winds will begin shifting northerly today while increasing behind a frontal passage. Conditions are expected to reach advisory later this evening for which a Small Craft Advisory has been issued. Winds of 25-30kt with higher gusts are expected, along with seas up to 12 feet over the Atlantic waters. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will still be possible through this afternoon. && .BEACHES... Issued at 309 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 High risk of rip currents for all Atlantic beaches starting Monday morning and continuing through the next several days as coastal winds become breezy behind a frontal passage. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 81 65 74 64 / 70 20 20 10 West Kendall 82 62 75 58 / 60 20 20 0 Opa-Locka 82 65 75 62 / 70 20 20 10 Homestead 82 65 76 63 / 60 20 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 80 65 73 64 / 70 30 20 0 N Ft Lauderdale 81 65 72 63 / 60 30 20 0 Pembroke Pines 82 64 75 61 / 70 30 20 0 West Palm Beach 81 65 71 62 / 60 30 10 0 Boca Raton 82 65 74 63 / 60 30 20 0 Naples 80 59 76 57 / 40 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ168-172. High Rip Current Risk from Monday morning through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for AMZ610. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ630-650-651-670-671. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676. && $$ |
| #1254435 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:27 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 421 AM AST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 403 AM AST Sun Dec 14 2025 * A drier and stable air mass will continue to move across the islands today, promoting limited showers. * Choppy to rough seas are expected to continue across the offshore Atlantic waters through at least Monday morning. * For the U.S. Virgin Islands, mainly fair weather conditions are expected with few passing showers moving into the area. * The approach of a frontal system and its associated upper-level trough over the western Atlantic will promote unstable conditions during the first half of the workweek. && .Short Term(Today through Tuesday)... Issued at 403 AM AST Sun Dec 14 2025 A drier and more stable air mass will continue to gradually fill over the region today. This will promote mostly fair weather conditions across the islands, with limited shower development this afternoon over land areas. On Monday and Tuesday, global model guidance continues to suggest a wet period, as an approaching cold front and associated upper level trough from the western Atlantic induces a pre-frontal trough near the local area. The precipitable water content is expected to increase near 1.75 inches, which is above normal levels. This pooling of moisture will allow for weak surface troughs to move from the east, increasing the chance of showers between 50-70% each day across the islands, with a slight chance of thunderstorm development over western PR in the afternoon hours. As the front remains north of the region, and the area sits between two areas of high pressure over the Azores and behind the front over western Atlantic, a southeasterly wind flow will prevail. This will lead to warmer than normal temperatures before the onset of afternoon showers. && .Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)... Issued at 403 AM AST Sun Dec 14 2025 The inherited forecast remains on track. Instability is expected to arrive in the area on Wednesday, driven by an upper-level trough positioned along a frontal boundary north of the region. At the surface, a building high-pressure system over the western Atlantic will begin to push moisture associated with this front into the local area, promoting wetter conditions by the latter part of the week. As this surface high strengthens, winds will shift to the northeast, pushing slightly cooler air into the area. Under this pattern, frequent passing showers are expected during the morning hours across portions of eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by afternoon showers over portions of central and western Puerto Rico. During this period, precipitable water content values are expected to range from 1.6 to 1.8 inches, suggesting normal to near-above-normal values for the season. At the 500 mb level, temperatures are expected to remain around -6C; however, isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, particularly with the afternoon activity over western Puerto Rico. Furthermore, the increasing pressure gradient force driven by the strengthening high pressure will result in breezy conditions during the latter half of the week, with wind speeds sustained between 15 to 20 knots. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 403 AM AST Sun Dec 14 2025 Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals during the next 24 hours. Mostly VCSH expected at times across the area terminals. Winds will prevail from the east at 15-20 kt with sea breeze variations and stronger gusts aft 14/14z. && .MARINE... Issued at 403 AM AST Sun Dec 14 2025 A surface high-pressure system will continue to build near the Azores, promoting moderate to fresh east to southeast winds across the local waters. Increasing winds and a fading long-period northerly swell will result in choppy to rough seas, mainly across the Atlantic waters. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect at least through Monday morning across the offshore Atlantic waters. A cold front and another surface high- pressure system will move from the western Atlantic into the central Atlantic early next week, weakening the pressure gradient and allowing for gentle to moderate winds through Tuesday. By midweek, increasing winds and a northwesterly swell will deteriorate marine conditions once again. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 403 AM AST Sun Dec 14 2025 A fading, long-period northerly swell will create life-threatening rip currents along the north and east facing beaches of the islands, where a Rip Current Statement remains in effect at least through early this morning. Beachgoers are urged to avoid swimming under these conditions. For the rest of the area, a low to moderate risk of rip currents is expected to dominate from today onwards, with beach conditions deteriorating again by midweek as a northwesterly swell spreads across the local Atlantic waters. For specific location information, please visit weather.gov/beach/sju. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST early this morning for PRZ001-002-005-008. VI...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Monday for AMZ711. && $$ |
| #1254434 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:18 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 303 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Areas of Locally Dense Fog Possible Early Sunday Morning Across Northeast and North Central FL. - Cold Weather Advisory for Sunday Night & Monday Morning. Wind Chills: 15-25F for Southeast GA, Suwannee Valley & Portions of Inland Northeast FL. Wind Advisory for Coastal Northeast FL from Early Sunday Evening through Early Monday Morning. - Freeze Warning for Southeast GA, the Suwannee Valley and Portions of Inland Northeast FL Sun Night & Monday Morning. Freeze Watches Issued for Monday Night and Early Tuesday Morning. Hard Freezes Likely Across Inland Southeast GA Early on Monday & Tuesday Mornings. Light Freezes for the Suwannee Valley & Portions of Inland Northeast FL. - Gale Warning for the Local Atlantic Coastal Waters from Late Sunday Afternoon through Early Monday Morning. High Surf Advisory for Coastal St. Johns and Flagler Counties from Late Sunday Night through Early Monday Evening. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Overnight surface analysis depicts Arctic high pressure (1042 millibars) building over the Plains states and the Upper Midwest, which was pushing a strong cold front across the lower Mississippi Valley, the southern Appalachians, and the Mid- Atlantic states. Aloft...troughing pivoting across the Great Lakes was sharpening as it digs southeastward. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough embedded within southwesterly flow downstream of the digging longwave trough was spreading rainfall and embedded convection across south FL and the Bahamas. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that PWATs generally remain between 0.75 - 1 inch across our region, with values above 1 inch located south of Interstate 4 in the FL peninsula and also north of the Altamaha / Ocmulgee Rivers in southeast GA. A narrow ribbon of deeper moisture located along the Arctic cold front was fostering a line of moderate to briefly heavy showers that were moving southeastward across west central GA and south central portions of AL. Mid- level cloud cover was migrating across the skies for locations north of Waycross in southeast GA, while a few pockets of mostly high altitude cloudiness were moving across northeast and north central FL. Temperatures and dewpoints at 08Z generally ranged from the mid 40s to the mid 50s, except around 60 for coastal southeast GA, where a southerly breeze prevailed. Troughing will continue to sharpen today as it pivots across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states, with this trough taking on a more negative tilt as it swings across New England and offshore of the Mid-Atlantic states tonight. This potent trough will drive an Arctic cold front across southeast GA this morning, and then through the rest of our region during the early to mid afternoon hours. Shower activity along this front over west central GA and south central AL will likely wane in coverage as it approaches the Altamaha / Ocmulgee Rivers after sunrise, with a ribbon of low to mid level cloud cover accompanying the frontal passage at it shifts across our region. The Arctic dome of high pressure will continue to build as it shifts southeastward across the Upper Midwest, with this feature then expanding and gradually weakening overnight over the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of this approaching Arctic cold front, west-southwesterly flow may increase low level moisture values enough to advect low stratus clouds and areas of locally dense fog across northeast and north central FL during the predawn and early morning hours. Meanwhile, surface winds will shift to west- northwesterly as the front moves across the Altamaha / Ocmulgee Rivers during the early to mid morning hours, with a few sprinkles possible beneath a deck of thick stratocumulus clouds across inland southeast GA this morning. Measurable rainfall appears to be unlikely, with chances around or less than 10 percent. Cold air advection will then overspread southeast GA this afternoon, with morning temperatures in the 60s then falling through the 50s as winds shift to northwesterly and become breezy by early afternoon. Temperatures will then fall into the upper 40s for locations north of Waycross towards sunset. Low stratus clouds and areas of locally dense fog across northeast and north central FL early this morning will quickly dissipate by mid-morning as a west-northwesterly breeze develops. Highs will climb to the 70-75 range across most of northeast and north central FL during the early to mid afternoon hours, except mid/upper 60s for northern portions of the Suwannee Valley, where the Arctic front will move through around the noon hour. Temperatures will then tumble through the 60s this afternoon as winds shift to northwesterly and become breezy in the wake of the Arctic frontal passage, with 50s expected across northern portions of the Suwannee Valley before sunset this evening. Arctic high pressure will shove the cold front southward across the FL peninsula tonight, with our local pressure gradient continuing to tighten this evening in the wake of this frontal passage. Winds will shift to northerly around sunset and then north-northeasterly overnight as the Arctic dome of high pressure wedges down the southeastern seaboard. Wind speeds will continue to increase tonight for locations east of I-95, and a Wind Advisory has been issued for coastal northeast FL, where sustained speeds of 20-25 mph will frequently gust to 40-45 mph through around sunrise on Monday. These strong onshore winds will keep lows in the 40s along the northeast FL coast tonight. Winds speeds at inland locations will remain sustained in the 10-15 mph range, which will create a wind chill hazard during the predawn and early morning hours on Monday as strong cold air advection results in temperatures plummeting overnight. A hard advective freeze is likely across inland southeast GA, where lows will fall to the low and mid 20s. Wind chill values will fall to around 15 degrees during the predawn and early morning hours on Monday for these locations, prompting a Cold Weather Advisory. A light advective freeze is forecast for coastal southeast GA, the Suwannee Valley, and portions of inland northeast FL by the predawn and early morning hours on Monday, where lows will fall to the upper 20s and lower 30s. Wind chill values will fall to the 20-25 degree range towards sunrise on Monday, prompting a Cold Weather Advisory. Lows elsewhere for inland north central FL will generally fall to the 35-40 degree range, with wind chill values dropping to around 30 towards sunrise on Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will continue to build south and eastward throughout the day on Monday, settling in possibly the coldest and driest airmass of the winter season so far. Winds will turn more northeasterly throughout the day as the high pressure ridge builds southward, and be quite breezy through the morning hours and into the early afternoon before rather quickly subsiding during the evening and after sunset. Winds will range from the 10-15G20 range over inland GA to around 15-20G30 closer to the coast and over much of northeast FL, and combined with highs in the 40s and 50s will make the air feel up to 5-10 degrees colder. Weak troughing along the coastal waters will result in scattered cloud cover over eastern counties, with mostly sunny skies expected inland. Monday night, the high will settle over southern GA, with weak troughing remaining over the coastal waters and keeping a light north to northeasterly breeze around 5-10 mph overnight closer to the coast and St. Johns River Basin. Across much of the interior, radiational cooling conditions will be much more favorable closer to the high pressure center, and therefore a rather wide range in low temperatures is expected Monday Night. Lows in the low to mid 20s will be common over inland SE GA, upper 20s to mid 30s are forecast north and west of the St. Johns River Basin and Upper Suwannee River Valley in northeast FL, and upper 30s to mid 40s will be expected for the NE FL coast/areas furthest south and east. With the prime radiational cooling conditions the further north and west you go, a Freeze Watch has been posted for much of the interior Monday Night, where areas/widespread frost is also likely. High pressure slowly shifts eastward into the Atlantic throughout the day Tuesday and through Tuesday Night, gradually shifting the light north to northeast winds towards towards the east-northeast to east. This will help to moderate our temperatures rather quickly on Tuesday, though still trending a bit below normal with highs ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s north to the mid to upper 60s south. The coastal trough, albeit weaker on Tuesday, will keep a few low clouds around closer to the coast with plenty of sunshine elsewhere. Though the airmass will be moderated somewhat, conditions will still be rather favorable for radiational cooling Tuesday Night, with lows in the 30s likely across inland GA with 40s expected elsewhere. The only limiting factor will be some increasing mid and high clouds across the area Tuesday Night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The area will remain on the western periphery of the above mentioned high pressure ridge Wednesday before shifting further offshore Thursday ahead of the next frontal system taking shape over the Plains. The next frontal system will move through the area around Friday and Friday Night, though it does not look to be as strong as the system from earlier in the week. Rain chances also look limited with this system at this time, with drought conditions expected to continue through the long term. Temperatures will be near normal Wednesday, trending above normal for Thursday and Friday before likely falling closer to normal into the start of the weekend after the frontal system moves through. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... IFR or LIFR conditions are expected at GNV and VQQ towards 08Z as mid and high altitude cloud cover exits and lower stratus ceilings and fog develop. Fog and low stratus ceilings may overspread the rest of the northeast FL terminals towards 10Z, but confidence was only high enough to indicate MVFR conditions at this time at JAX, CRG, and SGJ. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue at SSI through around 15Z. MVFR ceilings from 2,000-3,000 feet along an Arctic cold front will move over the SSI terminal from around 16Z-19Z, with these ceilings shifting southward across the Duval County terminals from 18Z-21Z and then impacting GNV and SGJ from 19Z-22Z. VFR conditions will then prevail at the regional terminals by 23Z. Southerly surface winds sustained at 5-10 knots will prevail overnight at SSI, with light southwesterly winds developing at the northeast FL terminals after 09Z. Surface winds will shift to westerly and will increase to 5-10 knots by 15Z, followed by winds shifting to northwesterly and steadily increasing to 15-20 knots with higher gusts after 17Z. Surface winds will then shift to northerly after 00Z, with sustained speeds increasing to 15-25 knots with higher gusts at SGJ and SSI by 03Z, while speeds at the inland terminals remain sustained in the 10-15 knot range with occasional higher gusts. && .MARINE... An Arctic cold front will cross the Georgia waters towards noon today and will continue southward across the northeast Florida waters during the early to mid afternoon hours. Winds will shift to northwesterly and will steadily increase this afternoon through tonight. Small Craft Advisory conditions will develop early this afternoon across the Georgia waters, followed by winds shifting to northerly towards sunset and then northeasterly after midnight. Frequent Gale force wind gusts will develop late this afternoon and will continue through around sunrise on Monday throughout our local waters as strong high pressure wedges down the southeastern seaboard. Coastal troughing will then develop over our local waters on Monday and Monday night, developing scattered showers, mainly offshore. Weakening high pressure will then shift southward towards our area on Tuesday, allowing winds and seas to quickly subside. High pressure will then shift offshore on Wednesday afternoon, with scattered showers possible by Thursday and Thursday night in advance of a weakening frontal boundary that will be entering the southeastern states. This front will likely cross the Georgia waters on Friday morning and may then stall over the northeast Florida waters by Friday night. Rip Currents: Southeast GA Moderate Today, High on Monday Northeast FL Low Today, High Monday && .FIRE WEATHER... A strong cold front will move southeast across the area today and into tonight, ushering in a much drier and cooler airmass into the region. Strong high pressure will build behind this boundary through Monday. Rain chances will be very low with the front (around 5-10%), with the main impact along with drier conditions being breezy northwest to northerly winds in the 10-20G30 mph range inland and 15- 25G40 mph range near the coast. Conditions will approach elevated fire danger over interior southeast GA this afternoon and evening behind the front, though minRH values are expected to only reach about 30-35%. Dispersions will be good to borderline high area wide today. Very dry airmass will linger through monday with RH values in the 20-30% range over inland GA, though fortunately winds will subside essentially throughout the day. Weaker winds and lower dispersions will return Tuesday and into mid week as high pressure settles almost directly over the area. The next frontal boundary doesn`t look to approach the region until about Friday. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy to areas of fog will be expected early this morning, with greatest coverage south of Gainesville. A hard freeze and dangerous wind chills are expected for most of the area Monday morning, though winds will be too strong for frost in most areas. Widespread Frost will be likely over SE GA and inland NE FL Monday night. Areas of frost likely inland SE GA once again Tuesday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 63 24 44 23 / 10 0 0 0 SSI 68 32 47 36 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 70 32 51 34 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 72 44 56 45 / 0 0 10 0 GNV 73 33 56 35 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 75 39 59 38 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for FLZ021- 023-024-030-031-035-120-124-125-132-136-220-225-232-236- 322-325-422-425-522. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for FLZ021-023- 024-030-031-035-120-124-136-220-225-232-236-322-422-425- 522. Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-136-220-232-236-322-422- 425-522. Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. High Surf Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ138-233- 333. GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ132>136- 149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ450-470. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1254433 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:09 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 300 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will race through ENC today, with arctic high in place through early this week. High pressure shifts offshore by the middle of next week with moderating conditions expected. Another strong cold front moves through Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 3 AM Sun...Very warm conditions early this AM as ENC is in pre-frontal warm sector. Arctic cold front analyzed racing sewrd through the TN Valley, and is progged to move through ENC mid/late morning. Rain develops in this strongly forced system, despite meager moisture return. Short duration likely/categorical pops remain in place mainly through the morning hours. Front blasts through with gusty nwrly winds and it will be very apparent, as rapid drying albeit rapidly falling temps expected this afternoon. Temps start in the 50-55 range early, dropping through the 30s this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Sun... Key Messages: - Gusty winds expected across ENC, especially along the Outer Banks where gusts to 35-45 mph are expected. A Wind Advisory in place for all OBX zones this afternoon through late tonight. - Dangerous cold expected with wind chills in the 5-15 degree range tonight - Monday morning. A Cold Weather Advisory is remains in effect. ECS/MET/MAV MOS and NBM blend for forecast lows tonight as strong mixing in place all night and thus pure NBM running too cold esp eastern half. Nevertheless, still forecasting lows in the 20s on the coast to the upper teens to near 20 interior zones. This combined with winds of 10+ mph overnight lead to wind chills 5-15 degrees and cold wx adv remains. Strong winds accompany the arctic blast, and windy conditions esp OBX where sustained up to 30 mph gusting 40-45 mph expected. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 AM Sun Monday...Arctic high traverses ENC with cold and brisk temps expected. Highs in the 30s area-wide. Breeziest conditions expected through the morning with winds abating through the day. Monday night may be the colder of the two esp for coastal mainland areas due to clr skies and this time atms will be decoupled. Lows will be in the teens to near 20, with 25-30 OBX. Unlike Sunday night, however, winds will be light to calm so no need for an extension of the cold wx adv. Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure slides offshore Tuesday with SW flow returning bringing a warming trend through mid week (highs expected to warm into the 50s Wednesday and into the 60s by Thursday). Precip chances increase late Thursday (10-20%) and Thursday night (50-60%) with another cold front approaching and moving through the region. Friday through Saturday...Cold front pushes east by week`s end, with dry conditions returning. This late week trough/frontal system are forecast to be weaker than tomorrow`s system. Thus, do not currently expect as substantial of a temperature drop behind the late-week cold front. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1 AM Sun... Key Messages - MVFR ceilings develop early Sunday morning and linger into Sunday afternoon - VFR conditions return Sun evening though breezy winds persist into Mon morning Latest surface analysis shows high pressure offshore with a cold front currently noted along the Appalachians. This front will continue to move east as the evening progresses and move into ENC this morning. Out ahead of this front clear skies and light SW`rly winds are noted across the region, though some mid and high clouds have begun to stream into the far western Coastal Plain as of this update. Clouds will continue to increase from west to east, with ceilings lowering to MVFR levels (sub 3000 ft) by 6-8 am. At this time, scattered light rain will move into the area, leading to further lowering of ceilings to 1000-2000 ft through the rest of the morning hours. Most guidance has only low probabilities of IFR conditions developing (odds of 10-20% or less), but some brief periods are possible especially where rain is the steadiest, between 13-18z. To account for this chance do have a SCT deck at 800 ft between this time. Improving conditions expected tomorrow afternoon primarily after about 18Z to 22Z , however strong NW winds will develop with wind gusts 20-30 mph possible inland with 35-45 mph wind gusts possible along the OBX. Finally, increasing LLWS may bring issues to terminals overnight, mostly from 1-6 am. Outlook: Gusty NW winds will gradually ease Sun night into Mon with gusts falling below 20 mph across the inland areas by daybreak Mon and falling below 30 mph along the OBX at the same time. Winds continue to decrease throughout the day Mon becoming light and variable by Mon evening. VFR conditions persist through midweek before the next chance at sub-VFR conditions Thursday into Fri with the approach of a frontal system. && .MARINE... As of 3 AM Sun... Key Messages - Gale conditions Sunday afternoon through Sunday night for northwesterly winds behind a passing cold front, with gusts of 35-40 kt expected. Today/Tonight...Strong CAA begins Sunday morning with passage of arctic front. Winds will abruptly shift to northwesterly with the frontal passage and quickly build to Gales across most of the area waters. Sounds and Alligator reach gales this evening with secondary main arctic air CAA surge. Seas peak in the 7-11 ft range by tonight. Monday...Winds die down quickly through the day on Monday, with gusts likely falling below SCA conditions late morning/early afternoon. Elevated seas will linger through much of the day, however, with 6+ ft seas lingering north of Cape Hatteras and along the Gulf Stream through Monday evening. Winds back to westerly Monday night, and gusts may flirt with SCA again across the Gulf Stream waters, especially south and east of Cape Hatteras. Tuesday through Thursday...Winds abate and broad southwesterly flow develops, with speeds in the 10-20 kt range expected. Gusts may again increase to near/just above SCA criteria across the Gulf Stream waters Wednesday. Seas will be generally 2-5 ft. Thursday night into Friday...Another round of SCA conditions looks likely late this week as southwesterly flow strengthens ahead of the next approaching cold front starting late Thursday and lasting into Friday. With warm offshore waters, gale conditions possible over the Gulf with strong swrly flow in place ahead of next cold fropa. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198- 199-203>205. Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EST Monday for NCZ203>205. MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EST Monday for AMZ131-230-231. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM EST Monday for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning from noon today to 6 AM EST Monday for AMZ150-152- 154-156-158. && $$ |
| #1254432 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 234 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures warm today, then cooler air returns early next week. - Hazardous marine conditions expected Sunday night through Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 We will see another warm afternoon with most us getting to around 80 degrees. This warm air is out ahead of a strong cold front which will start to push through quickly this evening. Behind it winds will pick up with breezy conditions overnight and through the day on Monday. Highs on Monday will stay in the mid 60`s. Winds will calm down by Monday night but that will allow for some more radiational cooling. This will bring down temperatures a few degrees cooler Tuesday morning then on Monday morning. For the rest of our work week and into next weekend the weather will remain quiet as high pressure dominates the area. We will on a slow warming trend day to day staring on Tuesday afternoon. Highs should be back in the 80`s by Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 232 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 VFR conditions expected through the period with the main exception being FMY and RSW. A front over south Florida will produce some isolated showers and possible IFR CIGS through the morning hours. A strong cold front will star to increase winds late in the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 232 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 A cold front will sweep through the Gulf starting this evening. Once the front passes winds will quickly pick up out of north to 20 to 25 knots. These winds will stay elevated until Monday evening when they slowly start to come back down. By Tuesday winds will be out of the northeast between 10 to 15 knots and will continue to come down to 5 to 10 knots by Wednesday. Winds will start to shift southeast by next Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 232 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 A strong and quick moving cold front will push through this evening. Behind it we will see breezing conditions starting overnight and through the day on Monday. However RHs will remain above critical levels so no red flag is expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 76 50 67 50 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 79 57 74 54 / 30 0 0 0 GIF 78 49 66 48 / 10 0 0 0 SRQ 78 53 71 51 / 10 0 0 0 BKV 77 42 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 74 53 67 53 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Monday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee- Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
| #1254431 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:33 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 232 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front crosses the the Mid Atlantic this morning, with accumulating snow possible, especially on the Eastern Shore. Arctic air moves in behind the cold front this evening into tonight, and provides a cold start to the week. The very cold temperatures do quickly give way to relatively milder temperatures for the middle to end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 AM EST Sunday... - Snow totals have trended upward to 1-2" for the RIC metro and N and 2-3" for the MD Eastern Shore. The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to include the northern counties W of the bay, including the RIC metro. Moderate to heavy rates will reduce visbilities. - Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for the entire area for bitterly cold temps tonight/Monday morning with wind chills in the single digits. Early morning sfc analysis indicates a warm front draped across the local forecast area and a cold front just to the NW. A strong UL trough is dipping down into the eastern CONUS, supporting the front from aloft. Latest obs show temps in the upper 30s to low 40s in the southeast and low to mid 30s elsewhere. An area of snow with a heavier band embedded can be observed on latest radar over the Baltimore and DC metro areas. The strong cold front and the precip associated with it will pass through the area as the morning progresses. The 00z suite of CAMs, along with the HRRR runs since then, are in fair agreement with regard to timing of precip. Should start to see precip enter the N/NW portions of the area (Louisa over to Dorchester) around 4am, then progress SE from there, reaching central portions of the area (along a Mecklenburg-RIC-SBY line) around 5-7am. During this time, there could also be some light precip in the SE ahead of the main line. Precip continues to push SE and looks to exit off the coast around mid-morning. Given above freezing temps areas will see rain to start, then transitioning to snow as the cold air rushes in behind the front. Could also see some sleet briefly mixing in during the transition period, especially in the SE later this morning. With regard to snowfall amounts- there has been an upward trend in expected accumulations. The last several runs of the HRRR and the HREF probabilities both support extending the 1-2" area down through the Northern Neck and into the Richmond metro. There was also a slight bump up for the MD Eastern Shore to 2- 3" with highest amounts right along that northern edge of Dorchester County. This increase is further supported by the likely presence of an FGEN band as depicted in the latest NAM12. Snow would likely fall rather quickly in a burst, reducing visibilities drastically and putting down quick accumulation. With all of this in mind, the Winter Weather Advisory was expanded to include the northern counties west of the bay including the Richmond Metro. Temperatures drop quickly behind the front and NW winds pick up to 30-35mph for most of the area and up to 40mph at the coast. Temperatures are forecast to be as low at the mid 20s across the NW up to the low 30s in the SE by mid afternoon. Wind chills this afternoon will be in the teens and low 20s. Temps continue to drop quickly after sunset as CAA ensues. Breezy/windy conditions continue overnight, especially in the east. Lows tonight will be in the mid teens for inland portions of the area and upper teens/around 20F at the coast. Wind Chills will be in the single digits across the entire FA. The Cold Weather Advisory issued for the area is unchanged since the initial issuance yesterday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Chilly and dry Monday and Monday night with a slow moderating trend beginning on Tuesday. Strong Arctic high pressure behind the cold front builds into the area Monday as the UL trough pivots offshore. It will be pretty chilly on Monday with highs only in the mid 30s. The good news is that it will be mostly sunny and much less windy with that high pressure overhead. The high is suppressed to the S/SE Monday evening into Tuesday and sfc flow shifts back to the SW. Lows Monday night will be in the low to mid 20s for most, but some of the colder rural spots could see the upper teens. Temperatures start to moderate on Tuesday under mostly sunny skies. Forecast highs are in the upper 30s in the far NE and low to mid 40s elsewhere. Lows Tuesday night will be in the mid to upper 20s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 AM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Much warmer temperatures (compared to the first half of December) are on the way for the middle and end of the week. - Another (weaker) cold front brings another chance for light rain Thursday night. The warming trend continues Wed as the sfc high moves further to the SE and the flow aloft turns to the WSW. Forecast highs are in the low to mid 50s. Lows Wed night will generally be around 30F. Another relatively mild day for Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Highs could even reach the low 60s in the SE. Could see some rain associated with the late-week front by Thursday afternoon, but timing has trended a little later across the global models and now brings the bulk of the precip in Thurs night into early Fri. So far it does not look like CAA behind this front will be terribly strong with the high behind it coming from the W rather than the NW. Forecast highs from Fri are in the 50s still, then cooling off slightly for Saturday. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1235 AM EST Sunday... High clouds and light 5 kt SW winds are expected for for the next few hours ahead of an Arctic front. The front will cross the terminals late tonight/early morning around 10-16z. A few hours of precipitation will likely accompany the front. A period of -RASN is likely at RIC/SBY changing to all snow with a couple hours worth of IFR VSBYs (best chc at SBY but an hour or so of IFR VSBYs is possible in -SN at RIC). Will note that LIFR VIS is possible at SBY and RIC with a brief band of heavier snowfall. A rain/snow mix is expected at PHF/ORF, with mainly rain at ECG. Could also see some sleet mixing in at these terminals. In addition to the precip, CIGs will drop behind the front to IFR at all terminals before returning to dry and VFR conditions this afternoon with terminals further west seeing clearing conditions first. Behind the front, NW winds will increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt. VFR conditions will prevail Sunday night through Wednesday. Gusty winds Sunday night into Monday morning near the coast will diminish on Monday. && .MARINE... As of 230 AM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - A strong, Arctic cold front crosses the waters this morning, with Gale conditions then expected into tonight over all of the waters. - Light freezing spray is possible later today through tonight. - Another round of SCAs are possible Monday night into early Tuesday. Early this morning, a strong, Arctic cold front is rapidly approaching from the NW. Meanwhile a weak warm front is located over the waters. Winds are light this morning (~5 to 10 knots) and mainly out of the S to SW across the southern half of the waters and N to NE across the northern half. Seas are running around 1 foot, and waves in the Bay 1 foot or less. The strong front will continue to quickly move SE, crossing the waters around or shortly after 09z (4 AM EST). In the wake of the strong cold front, very cold and dry air advects into the region. Extremely cold temperatures aloft (850 mb temps as low as -20 C) mix down to the surface across (relatively) warmer waters, creating very windy conditions. Winds rapidly increase and become NW between 09 and 12z (4 to 7 AM EST), with sustained winds of 25 to 30 knots and gusts of 35+ knots expected by late morning- early afternoon over a majority of the waters. Winds increase further during the afternoon-evening hours, peaking between roughly ~00z to 06z Monday (7 PM to 1 AM EST Mon); sustained winds of 30 to 35 knots and gusts up to 45 knots are expected during this timeframe. Given the extreme airmass change, would not be surprised if brief storm-force wind gusts were realized, especially at the elevated observation sites. Gale Warnings are in effect for all zones. Winds should fall below Gale thresholds everywhere by sunrise Monday morning, and then below SCA thresholds by Monday afternoon, as high pressure builds back into the area. In addition to the wind, seas build to 6 to 10 feet by Sunday night, though the slight offshore component of the wind should help to keep seas from building further. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay will build to 4 to 6 feet (locally up to 7 feet). Finally, some freezing spray is possible later today through tonight due to the strong winds and cold air temperatures. However, marginal water temperatures (low to mid 40s) should keep any freezing spray light. Thus, am not expecting the need for a Freezing Spray Advisory. Calmer conditions are anticipated later Monday, though a brief surge of S-SW wind may lead to additional SCA headlines (mainly over the Chesapeake Bay) late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Sub- SCA conditions then return Tuesday into Wednesday. Another cold front may bring increasing winds Thursday into Friday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MDZ021>025. Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for MDZ021>025. NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for NCZ102. VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100- 509>525. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for VAZ098>100. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for VAZ062-064-069-075>078-083-085-509>522. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ630-631. Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ632-634-650-652-654. Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ633-635>638-656-658. && $$ |
| #1254430 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:27 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 119 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 115 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2025 Updated to include the latest Preliminary point temps/pops to the bottom of the discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1152 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 - Near to below normal temperatures in the wake of our next cold front Sunday through Tuesday - Low chances (20-40%) for showers today with the frontal passage - Gale Warning for Sunday and Sunday night across the Gulf waters && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1152 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 A cold front will swing across the region tonight providing some relief to our most recent warm stretch. Temperatures will be near normal Sunday and Tuesday with Monday featuring below normal temperatures. Unfortunately this cool weather will be short lived as another warming trend awaits us for mid-week. Most of the forecast period will be dry, with Sunday and Wednesday being the only exceptions with a low (20-40%) chance for showers. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Areas of fog with IFR conditions can be expected ahead of a cold front overnight. Light winds have already shifted to the N-NE for COT and VCT. The wind shift is expected for LRD, ALI and CRP between 08-11Z. A mix of IFR and MVFR conditions will continue behind the wind shift through 12-15Z. However, winds are expected to strengthen as high pressure builds into S TX which will lift conditions to VFR for COT and VCT gradually through Sunday afternoon. MVFR conditions are expected to continue for the southern TAF sites. Winds are forecast to increase to 20-25 knots with gusts around 30 knots by mid morning, then decrease by late afternoon or early evening. There is a low (10-30%) chance of showers with the cold front and lingering behind the cold front. Rain chances end from north to south through early afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1152 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Near Gale to Gale (BF 7-8) northeast winds will develop this morning across the Gulf waters and continue through Sunday night. As we head into Monday morning, winds will quickly relax to moderate levels (BF 4) and shift to the southeast which will then hang around for the rest of the week. Medium to high (30-70%) chances for rain can be expected today with rain chances quickly tapering off Sunday evening. Our next chance for rain will return Tuesday night into Wednesday with a medium (40-50%) chance for showers across the Gulf waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1152 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Despite the passage of our next cold front, relative humidity levels are expected to remain above 30% with relatively light to moderate winds, except for Sunday, where winds can gust to 25-30 mph. However, due to the relative humidity remaining above critical levels, elevated fire weather conditions will not expected through early this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 68 43 59 50 / 20 0 0 0 Victoria 62 34 57 42 / 10 0 0 0 Laredo 68 47 62 52 / 40 0 0 0 Alice 68 42 61 47 / 20 0 0 0 Rockport 67 43 58 52 / 20 0 0 0 Cotulla 62 42 60 48 / 10 0 0 0 Kingsville 68 43 61 49 / 30 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 68 48 58 55 / 20 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 3 AM CST Monday for GMZ231-232-236-237. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ250-255-270-275. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ250-255- 270-275. Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM CST Monday for GMZ250-255-270-275. && $$ |
| #1254429 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:21 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 113 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 102 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 - The coldest air of the year will bring dangerous wind chills and a widespread freeze to the area Sunday night into Monday morning. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect over this time period. - Strong winds and dangerous seas are expected Sunday into Monday after a strong cold front moves through. Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings are now in effect for this time period. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 102 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 It has been a little busy tonight watching the strong cold front work down towards the area and forecasting the development and advancement of fog along coastal areas. Fog began to develop quickly over coastal MS and then began to popup across areas of the immediate SELA coast. This is far enough ahead of the cold front where the air is not being mixed and moisture has piled up but this will not last long. The cold front which was right on the doorstep of the CWA by 5z will continue to quickly work south and could already be moving into the Gulf by 12Z the drier and cooler air will not be far behind. We will also see some light rain and maybe even a few rumbles of thunder associated with the front this morning. So the obvious forecast concern is, how cold do we get tonight? Well, that is the million dollar question and yes it will get cold tonight, likely the coldest temperatures we have seen so far this season and by a few degrees at that. The cold front already stretches southwest from western NC and northern GA into central and southwest MS and then back to the west through central TX while a 1038/1039 sfc high is centered over the northern and into the central Plains. Looking at the mid lvls the L/W trough over the eastern CONUS is broad but the trough axis is all the way down into the southern Gulf while a ridge dominates the 4 corners with the ridge axis extending north just west of the continental divide into southwestern Canada. The main embedded s/w associated with our cold air mass is actually just barley moving through the Mid MS Valley and will be move into the OH and TN Valleys by late morning/midday. This continues to work east- southeast with the main trough axis moving off of the Atlantic coast this evening. This keeps the area under northwest flow aloft while the ridge to our west broadens out some moving east into the southern Plains. At the sfc high pressure will continue to diver south across the Plains this morning before surging more to the east and southeast during the day and overnight. By Monday morning high pressure will dominate most of the southeastern CONUS and Appalachians but still not centered over the area. This will usher a very cold and dry airmass into the area today and overnight. This airmass will be very shallow. Models and fcst sndgs indicate strong cold air advection during the day today and will cool things off considerably around h925 and below but not much in the way of CAA at h85. The other interesting and fcst problem is h925 temps actually warm overnight. All models CAMs, regional, and global models indicate LL temps warming overnight indicating how shallow this airmass really is. Looking upstream it was definitely cold across MO and KS but most of the evening it was struggling to dive south as it hit the Ozarks and then finally around 4/5z the colder air began to surge south across northern AR and eastern OK. Given that the sfc high is not going to be centered over the area and CAA is likely going to continue into the early evening hours before finally leveling off the radiational cooling potential is not the primary factor tonight. Winds around h925 will still be near 15- 20kts at 6z before finally starting to drop. This would suggest some mixing still and given that all models were showing h925 temps increasing overnight that gives me pause on how cold we get tonight. However, MOS guidance has trended slightly colder for tonight with lows near 20 for a good chunk of the northern half of the CWA. If that happens combined with the wind not decoupling, Apparent Temps could drop below 15 degrees for more than just isolated locations. That would necessitate an Extreme Cold Warning. That said there are still too many questions and will stick with the latest NBM showing lower to mid 20s across the northern half of the CWA. However, with the MET, MAV, and ECS all showing lows around 20 for ASD, MCB, and even lower 20s for BTR and PQL confidence is not as high in the forecast. Things that i don`t like to ultimately achieve those colder temps, the placement of the trough, I would prefer it being a little deeper amplified and stronger northwest to north-northwest flow aloft helping to drive the colder air more south and not shunt it to our east, the LL warm air advection overnight, the raw models showing sfc temps about 5 almost 10 degrees above MOS, and I would even like to see the snow pack a little farther south. All of that is giving me pause to lower the min T forecast and actually has me leaning to bump up the lows a degree or two but like I said we will stick with the NBM for now which is on the high side of its on probabilistic forecast. So with that we will continue to forecast lows of lower to mid 20s across southwest MS and down to the I 10/12 corridor and coastal MS. While south of I-10 lows will range from the mid 20s to near freezing. Winds will remain strong enough to make the air feel even colder with Apparent temps in the mid to upper teens across northern half of the CWA and in the lower to mid 20s across the southern half overnight tonight. A Cold Weather Advisory was already issued for the entire area and will not make any changes to that. Given that the Cold Weather Advisory is higher priority hazard than the Freezing Warning that is why there is no Freeze Warning out for anywhere in the CWA. One other aspect that was looked at closely for today was the wind. Strong cold air advection during the day and very high sf pressure rises early will give way to gusty northerly winds over the land areas late this morning and through the afternoon. Contemplated a wind advisory but held off for now. Winds don`t look like they will be quite strong enough to necessitate one. Clouds may hang out for at least the first half of the day hurting the mixing potential and (again with the very shallow nature of this airmass) the h925 winds are not unidirectional with the sfc winds and are off by as much as 20-30 degrees during the midday and afternoon hours. This will also hurt the efficiency of mixing down the stronger h925 winds which could be as high as 30-35kt. If we can mix those down a few gust could range between 35 and 40 mph. As one forecast brought up even though the winds may not be in the wind advisory criteria range there could still be impacts given the amount of Christmas decorations outside. So if you do have things that are not tethered/tied down that may be a good call to secure those items today. Monday will be cool but things look to quickly moderate as we head into the work week. Northwest flow aloft and high pressure still dominating the region will keep the area generally below normal for a little longer with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 102 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Things quickly moderate heading into Tuesday. Ridging aloft starts to push into the area Tuesday but a disturbance currently moving onshore over CA will quickly work east across the 4 corners and into the southern Plains and northern Mexico. How much of this continues east into the Lower MS Valley Wednesday is still unknown as it could surge more south into Mexico and try to close of or just continue to plow on east towards the Lower MS Valley Wednesday. If it does it could bring another chance of rain to the area but if it work south into Mexico we may not have to wait long as the pattern become mostly zonal across the region mid week with a strong disturbance moving across the northern and middle portions of the central CONUS Thursday bring another cold front into the region. This will be more of a Pacific airmass so not really strong but still a slightly cooler and drier airmass for the end of the week. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 102 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Fog still impacting mainly for coastal MS and just far enough east into ASD. This is right ahead of the approaching cold front which just moved through MCB. As the cold front passes the fog will quickly improve but low clouds will still impact those terminals. Elsewhere low cigs will become an issue overnight but especially as the cold front moves across the region. MVFR to IFR cigs will impact all terminals likely bottoming out between 700-1300. CIGS should begin to improve from northwest to southeast around 14/15Z with all terminals back in VFR or very close to VFR around 18/19z. That said there will still be low clouds around they should just be above 3k ft by then. In addition scattered light rain will be accompany the front. /CAB/ && .MARINE... Issued at 102 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 A strong cold front with a very shallow cold airmass will quickly move through this morning with strong offshore winds developing after it moves through. The fog that has developed near the coast and MS Sound will quickly begin to improve during the early morning hours. Winds will quickly pickup to around 20-25kt out of the north with gusts over 30 by midday. Winds will gusts from 30-35kt over all of the waters with frequent gusts near Gale in the outer waters through Monday morning. Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings are already in effect for the waters over this time period. Another high will then quickly settle over the area on Tuesday, and this will allow winds to turn more easterly and fall back to less than 10 knots. Seas will also begin to subside as the winds decrease Monday night into Tuesday. /CAB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 49 22 48 28 / 20 0 0 0 BTR 54 24 51 31 / 30 0 0 0 ASD 60 22 50 29 / 30 0 0 0 MSY 61 32 48 38 / 40 0 0 0 GPT 62 26 50 33 / 30 0 0 0 PQL 60 22 50 29 / 30 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557. Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ532- 534. Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ570-572-575-577. MS...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for MSZ068>071-077-083>088. Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM CST early this morning for MSZ083>088. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557. Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ534. Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1254428 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:21 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 220 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An arctic cold front will sweep through Today. Dry high pressure will then build overhead for much of the coming week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: Aloft, a high amplitude trough will dig across the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic states, helping force an arctic cold front through the area mid morning into early afternoon. A southwest wind will help maintain mild conditions locally through morning hours, with high temps likely to occur early prior to fropa, generally in the upper 50s/around 60 inland to low-mid 60s near the coast. However, expect temps to begin a cooling trend by early-mid afternoon as strong cold air advection occurs post front. Latest soundings are not impressive in regards to moisture, but indicate a period of cloudy conditions and light showers during morning hours. QPF will remain low, mainly below a tenth of an inch across Southeast South Carolina. Precip likely ends with fropa (around noon), but gusty northwest winds (20-30 mph) will develop across most areas as strong low-lvl mixing occurs with cold air advection. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect across Lake Moultrie as a result, starting at 4 PM. Tonight: Arctic high pressure will build across the region from the north and west, setting up a dry, but cold night. Gusty and dry conditions post fropa will likely have dried out all surfaces during afternoon hours, especially given little rainfall accumulation, thus limiting any concern of slippery roads/black ice during the night. The main issue will be low wind chill values during the second half of the night. Strong cold air advection to the region will help temperatures dip into the upper teens well inland and north to low- mid 20s near the SC/GA beaches and south of I-16 across Southeast Georgia. Temps could approach record low levels (see climate section). These temperatures along with northerly winds gusting upwards to 15-25 mph (strongest near the coast) support wind chill values in the 11-20 degree range. Coldest wind chill temperatures should occur across the Charleston Tri- County Area and perhaps across inland Southeast South Carolina counties. Wind chill temperatures could briefly touch 10 degrees, but the coverage and duration of the event is quite limited prior to daybreak. Thus, the Extreme Cold Watch has been replaced with a Cold Weather Advisory, which is now in effect for all of Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia from 10 PM tonight until 10 AM Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Overview: Very cold temperatures continue for Monday, then begin to moderate by mid week. Monday: Deep, cold high pressure will be centered over the region. Even with full sun, highs not expected to make it much past 40, which are near record low max values for the date! Luckily, winds will be light, reducing any wind chill effects. By Monday night, high pressure will start off centered over the area, then it will slide eastward into the Atlantic waters by late night. With light winds, clear skies and a very dry low levels, expect ideal radiational cooling conditions. This will make for another cold night with lows in the 20s most areas, except closer to 30 near the coast. We continue to monitor the potential for another Cold Weather Advisory, but current overnight temperature forecast keeps temps just above the 20 degree threshold. Even with the current forecast, there could be some areas that briefly touch 20 degrees. Tuesday and Wednesday: The surface ridge continues to move eastward into the Atlantic with zonal mid and upper level flow. This pattern is expected to allow a moderation in temperatures, reaching to near to slightly above normal by Wednesday. No precipitation is expected during this period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The general zonal upper level pattern is shown by models to briefly be interrupted by a fast moving upper level trough axis and associated weak cold front Thursday. This upper level trough may have enough deep layer moisture to produce isolated showers Thursday and Thursday night. Friday through Sunday: the upper flow reverts back to generally zonal, with temperatures above normal, in the 60s to near 70. Models diverge again with the potential for another front and threat for precipitation to approach the area possibly by late in the period on Sunday. Confidence with whether or not this front will have any impact in our area is very low at this time. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 12Z this morning. At CHS/JZI, light showers associated with a cold front could produce MVFR cigs temporarily in the 12-16Z Sunday timeframe, followed by prevailing MVFR cigs through 18Z. At SAV, prevailing MVFR cigs are anticipated between 13-17Z, associated with the passing front. Gusty northwest to north winds (20-25 kt) are also likely at all terminals from 16Z Sunday to 06Z Monday. Extended Aviation Outlook: Monday through Wednesday: VFR conditions are expected to prevail for KCHS, KJZI and KSAV. Thursday: Isolated showers may impact the TAF sites with the potential for brief flight restrictions with any showers. However, confidence is low to moderate for the potential for any showers during this period. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: High pressure extending across the Atlantic will eventually give way to a quickly approaching cold front from the west, leading to deteriorating wind/sea conditions this afternoon. Ahead of the front, a southwest wind in the 10-15 kt range will gradually ramp up to 15-20 kt by late morning, then quickly turn northwest this afternoon as an arctic cold front shifts offshore. Northwest to north winds should gust upwards to 25-35 kt, strongest outside the Charleston Harbor late afternoon and through much of the night. For this reason, the Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Gale Warning for all waters, the exception being the Charleston Harbor where a Small Craft Advisory is in place. Seas will also build with winds surging across local waters late afternoon into the overnight period, reaching 5-7 ft across most nearshore waters, but topping out near 8-9 ft around 20 nm off the Charleston County Coast and across outer Georgia waters. Monday through Thursday: No highlights are expected through the period. A high pressure ridge at the surface will remain just east of the waters through at least Wednesday. This will keep mainly west-southwest winds of 15 knots or less and seas 2 to 4 feet. A coastal trough may develop over the nearshore waters on Thursday as a cold front approaches from the west. Winds likely to increase from the south on Thursday, but still expected to remain below highlight levels. && .CLIMATE... Record Low Temperatures: December 15: KCHS: 15/1962 KCXM: 23/1943 KSAV: 19/1962 Record Low Maximum Temperatures: December 15: KCHS: 39/1943 KCXM: 38/1904 KSAV: 38/1904 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141. SC...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for SCZ040-042>045-047>052. Lake Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Monday for SCZ045. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EST Monday for AMZ330. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ350-352-354-374. && $$ |
| #1254427 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 100 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1249 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 - Dense fog has developed this morning over the southern half of the local area, as well as over Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound. Fog is expected to dissipate before sunrise. - A strong cold front will sweep through the area later this morning. Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills are expected for Sunday night. Wind chills could drop to near 10 degrees over interior counties and to near 15 degrees over coastal counties. - Strong marine winds are expected to develop this afternoon and continuing through tonight in the wake of a cold front. Frequent gusts to gale force are possible over the open Gulf waters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1249 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 An upper-level trough digging southeastward is helping to push a strong cold front through the area this morning. Prior to its passage, dense fog will continue to develop across the southern half of the local area, including over Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound. A Dense Fog Advisory will remain in effect through 5am for land areas and 6am for marine areas. Additionally, widely scattered showers are also beginning to move into our northernmost counties. Rainfall with these showers is expected to remain light and we are not anticipating any thunderstorms. The front should clear the area sometime around sunrise, effectively dissipating our fog and ending our rain chances. Behind the front, winds will become gusty out of the north (wind gusts up to 30-35 mph in spots) as an arctic high pressure system builds in to our north, creating a tight pressure gradient across the local area. This strong cold air advection will cause temperatures to plummet throughout the day (our high will likely occur prior to sunrise). We are still anticipating the coldest air of the season for tonight. Lows are expected to drop down into the upper teens north of Highway 84 to the mid 20s along the immediate coastline. In fact, we may actually get to within a few degrees of our daily record low for KMOB (December 15th record low: 20 degrees (1901) Forecast low: 22 degrees). Factoring in the continued breezy conditions, apparent temperatures (wind chills) could drop to as low as 10-16 degrees north of I-10, with upper teens potentially reaching the immediate coast. With temperatures and wind chills this low, we have issued a Cold Weather Advisory across the entire area, although it should be noted that a few locations may flirt with Extreme Cold Warning criteria. Residents and visitors are urged to make preparations to protect people, plants, pets, and pipes from this upcoming cold weather. Very cold temperatures continue through Monday night. Even under sunny skies, highs on Monday will likely only remain in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. Lows Monday night will generally be in the 20s areawide. By Tuesday and into the middle of next week, flow aloft becomes more westerly to southwesterly and high pressure shifts off to our east, allowing for temperatures to quickly moderate. In fact, highs by Thursday may warm back into the low 70s for some spots. Rain chances may also return to the area by late week as the next, weaker cold front approaches the area. A low risk of rip currents will be in place through Wednesday, increasing to a Moderate Risk by Thursday. /96 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Dense fog and very low ceilings have developed this morning across much of the area, bringing reductions in flight categories to LIFR or VLIFR. This will persist through around 09-11z before a strong cold front pushes through the area. IFR ceilings should accompany the front as it pushes through, along with some scattered showers. VFR conditions will return by the late morning/early afternoon hours in the wake of the front. Light and variable winds tonight will become northerly by mid morning and quickly increase to around 20-25 knots, with gusts close to 30 knots. /96 && .MARINE... Issued at 1249 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Light onshore flow will persist through the remainder of tonight, along with dense sea fog over Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound. A strong cold front will push across the marine zones later today, with strong northerly to northeasterly winds developing behind the front. Frequent gusts to gale force will be possible over the Gulf waters with strong small craft conditions possible elsewhere. Winds subside on Monday, becoming a light easterly wind for Tuesday. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 60 22 49 29 / 40 0 0 0 Pensacola 62 28 50 34 / 30 0 0 0 Destin 64 31 51 37 / 20 0 0 0 Evergreen 57 21 51 24 / 40 0 0 0 Waynesboro 49 19 46 24 / 20 0 0 0 Camden 49 20 46 23 / 20 0 0 0 Crestview 61 23 51 23 / 20 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for ALZ051>060-261>266. Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM CST early this morning for ALZ059- 261>266. FL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for FLZ201>206. Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM CST early this morning for FLZ201>206. MS...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM CST early this morning for MSZ075- 076-078-079. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ630>636. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to noon CST Monday for GMZ650-655. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ670-675. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday for GMZ670-675. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight CST tonight for GMZ670-675. && $$ |
| #1254426 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 149 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 145 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 - Another round of fog, especially across the Florida Big Bend, is expected tonight ahead of the cold front. - A Freeze Warning for a Hard Freeze for temperatures at or below 25 degrees is in effect for our Alabama and Georgia counties Sunday night into Monday morning. - A Freeze Warning for temperatures below 32 degrees is in effect for the Emerald Coast and coastal Franklin County Sunday night into Monday morning. - A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect Sunday night into Monday morning across the area for wind chills between 15 and 20 degrees in Alabama and Georgia and 16 to 24 degrees for Florida. - A Freeze Watch for temperatures at or below 25 degrees is in effect for our Alabama, Georgia, and inland Florida Panhandle counties Monday night into Tuesday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 145 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Light showers early this morning will be possible for our SE Alabama counties ahead of the much anticipated cold front. The rainfall will amount to less than a tenth of an inch. Fog is expected again this morning for the FL Panhandle and Big Bend in areas along and south of I-10. Fog may be dense at times and should clear out by mid- morning as the cold front passes through. The cold front will be on our doorstep in SE Alabama just before daybreak and will quickly push through the region by the afternoon hours. Cold air advection will follow the frontal passage with breezy north/northwesterly winds around 15-20 mph with gusts of 25- 30 mph. It is likely that temperatures will be falling through the day, with the warmest temps occuring during the morning hours for our northwestern counties that receive the frontal passage first. That will make the hourly temperature forecast tricky for today. Tonight, temps are expected to fall into the mid to upper 20s, and near 30 along the immediate coast. These temperatures are why a Hard Freeze Warning has been issued due to values at or below 25 degrees is the criteria for the hazard issuance. A Freeze Warning (part of the freeze program) has been issued for the Emerald Coast and coastal Franklin County for their first expected freeze of the season. In addition to cold temperatures, the winds will be elevated during the nighttime hours. Northerly winds around 10-15 mph, and still gusting to around 20 mph will create a wind chill (feels- like temperature) in the low 20s down to the teens. These are dangerously cold wind chills, so a Cold Weather Advisory will be in effect tonight for all of our counties. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 145 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Monday morning: Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s, however the wind chill values early in the morning will be in the teens and lower 20s. The Cold Weather Advisory will be active through around mid-morning to cover the dangerous wind chills expected for Monday morning. A Freeze warning for a Hard Freeze is also in effect for the actual temperatures will be at or below 25 degrees in our Alabama and Georgia counties. During the day Monday, temps will struggle to reach out of the 40s for areas along and north of I-10. Coastal communities in the FL Panhandle and Big Bend can see temps in the low to mid 50s. Winds during the day Monday will be a gentle breeze around 10-15 mph. Monday night into Tuesday morning: Clear skies overnight with light/calm winds will lead to radiational cooling, allowing temperatures to potentially "crash" in some locations. Forecast temps will be in the low to mid 20s. A Freeze Watch for a Hard Freeze has been for our AL and GA, and inland FL Panhandle counties where the coldest temperatures are expected. Frost is likely to develop area-wide during the morning hours on Tuesday. A warming trend will start during the day on Tuesday with temps rising into the 60s and to the low 70s by the end of the week, which will be a little above normal for mid-December. A weak shortwave trough is expected to pass through mid-late week, which could bring a slight chance for showers. Given the low confidence and supposed lack of moisture return at the time, PoPs have been limited to 30%. Late in the week, there looks to be another cold front that will make its way across the eastern third of the country. At this time, there is much uncertainty as to whether the front will hold together for the SE United States and what impacts (if any) there could be. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 145 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 A cold front will march through the Tri-State region today. Ahead of the front, fog and low stratus is expected to form overnight across the southern FL panhandle east into the FL Big Bend. At TLH/ECP, have IFR/LIFR conds developing between 08-09Z and persisting into mid morning or 14-15Z. Brief periods of dense fog (1/4SM FG) is possible pre dawn at both locations. As the front moves in, MVFR/IFR cigs will accompany the passage just ahead and behind with some -RA at DHN and perhaps VCSH at ABY. The rain will be decreasing with eastward extent into our area with those two terminals standing the better chances. After frontal passage, expect winds to clock to the northwest and become gusty with 25-30 knots common through after sunset (01-03Z) though elevated winds around 10 knots will continue afterwards and through the night. && .MARINE... Issued at 145 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 A strong cold front will push through our waters this morning, sharply turning our winds to the north and northwest. Winds will quickly increase to 25-30 kts with gusts up to 35 kts in waters west of Apalachicola. A Gale Warning is in effect this afternoon through tonight, and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for our eastern waters and the waters of St. Andrews Bay. Advisory level winds will follow the Gale warning for waters west of Apalachicola. Winds and seas will gradually decrease during the day on Monday. Favorable boating conditions are expected to return to the Gulf waters by early mid-week with northeasterly winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 145 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Light showers will be possible over the Alabama Wiregrass and FL Panhandle regions this morning ahead of a strong cold front but, not enough accumulations to account for a "wetting rain". For the FL Big Bend region, patchy to areas of fog will be possible. Fog may be dense at times. Following the cold front, winds will sharply turn out of the north and northwest at around 15-20 mph, and gusting up to 25-30 mph. Dispersions today will be fair to moderate. Winds will begin to relax on Monday as they shift northeasterly with temperatures starting in the mid-20s and warming to the mid and upper 40s, low 50s for the immediate coast and SE Big Bend. Dispersions will be fair but MinRH values will be low in the low to mid 20s% for much of the region on Monday. The SE Big Bend will have humidities around 40%. The surface high is forecast to be directly overhead on Tuesday, allowing for calm winds. This will also lead to low dispersions for Tuesday afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 145 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Light rainfall accumulations are possible early this morning in our Alabama counties ahead of the cold front. Dry weather is then expected through most of the upcoming week. A slight chance for rain returns by midweek, but potential amounts remain low. Overall, rainfall amounts through next week are less than a tenth of an inch. No flooding is anticipated over the next several days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 66 30 49 27 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 67 31 52 33 / 10 0 0 0 Dothan 61 25 47 24 / 10 0 0 0 Albany 62 25 46 22 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 66 26 48 26 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 74 32 55 33 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 67 34 50 38 / 10 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114- 115-118-127-128-134-326-426. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for FLZ007-009>011-013. Freeze Warning from 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ to 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ Monday for FLZ108-112-114-115. High Rip Current Risk from 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning through late tonight for FLZ114. GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Monday for GAZ120>131- 142>148-155>161. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161. AL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for ALZ065>069. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Monday for ALZ065>069. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for ALZ065>069. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday for GMZ730-755-765-775. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight CST tonight for GMZ735. Gale Warning from noon today to midnight CST tonight for GMZ751- 752-770-772. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1254424 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:24 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 109 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 652 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 - Patchy to areas of dense fog are forecast for portions of east central Florida late tonight into early Sunday morning. The greatest potential for dense fog will be along and north of the I-4 corridor. - Few showers and isolated lightning storms tonight into Sunday, mainly along the Treasure Coast. - Behind a strong cold front, north to northeast winds increase on Sunday night into Monday, with gusts to around 35 mph at the coast and gale-force offshore. At that time, expect rough surf, numerous rip currents, minor beach erosion, and dangerous seas. && .UPDATE... Issued at 652 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 A couple hazards to monitor over the next 12-15 hours. First, we are still concerned that patchy to areas of dense fog will form tonight over the northern two-thirds of the district, including Greater Orlando. Statistical and mesoscale guidance continue to point at this potential overnight through sunrise. Already, winds are light and ample moisture is in place. Aside from the usual low confidence when it comes to radiative-type fog events down here, we also have some high cloudiness streaming in from the southwest. For now, the going forecast looks okay which calls for some fog formation after around 1-2 AM. Those venturing out late tonight should be on the lookout for sudden drops in visibility. Moisture and energy are impinging on the state from the south this evening, evidenced by showers and storms roaming around the Keys at this hour. Courtesy of a jet streak over Central FL, mesoanalysis reveals a pocket of upper-air divergence over that area. Guidance holds a large chunk of this activity just to our south, but 20-50% rain chances sneak into areas south of Melbourne overnight into Sunday AM. There is also a low chance for lightning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Rest of Today-Tonight... Upper level low pressure system over the Great Plains will move into the Great Lakes region today. Surface high pressure axis, centered across the Great Plains, will continue to build southeast across the Deep South as high pressure across the Atlantic waters builds over the Florida peninsula. Locally, dry conditions will dominate, with no mentionable rain chances. Dry air will continue to filter across the area, with forecast PW values around 0.7-1.0" today. Northeast to east winds this morning will veer east to southeast this afternoon with speeds at 5-10 mph. Guidance is showing patchy to areas of fog developing late tonight into early Sunday morning across portions of east central Florida, mainly from Melbourne to Lake Okeechobee northward and westward, with areas of fog generally along and north of the I-4 corridor. Remember if you encounter fog while driving, slow down and use your headlights. Temperatures will be seasonable to slightly above normal for this time of year, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight lows will range from mid 50s across the far north to mid 60s across the far south on tonight. Sunday-Monday... The upper level low pressure over the Great Plains will move into the Great Lakes region on Sunday before deepening and moving eastward towards Maine through Monday. At the surface, a strong high pressure centered over the Midwest will shift southward into the Deep South on Monday with the axis building over the Florida peninsula. The frontal boundary across South Florida will lift northward as a warm front into Sunday. This will result in an increase in cloud cover as well as a return of rain chances across the local area. There is a low (20-30 percent) chance of rain from southern Brevard/Osceola southward on Sunday, with a low (20 percent) chance of lightning storms mainly across the Treasure Coast and southern Okeechobee county. The next cold front will push across east central Florida Sunday evening into Sunday night. This will be a dry frontal passage, with no mentionable rain chances Sunday night through Monday. However, winds will increase across the local area as the axis of the strong high pressure builds over the Florida peninsula, tightening the pressure gradient and resulting in a period of windy conditions (especially along the coast) Sunday night into Monday. North to northwest winds at 5-10 mph on Sunday will increase to 10-15 mph (and 15-20 mph along the coast) Sunday night with gusts 20-30 mph through Monday. A wind advisory will likely be needed Sunday night through Monday. Those strong winds will also result in rough, pounding surf and minor beach erosion during that time (roughly encompassing 1-2 high tide cycles). A High Surf advisory may be needed. Temperatures will be above normal on Sunday before becoming noticeably cooler behind the front on Monday. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s on Sunday before dropping to low to mid 60s across the north and upper 60s to low 70s across the south on Monday. Overnight lows will range from upper 40s across the far north to low 60s across the far south on Sunday night, and range from low 40s across the far north and near 60 degrees across the far south on Monday night. Tuesday-Friday... A weakening high pressure across the Deep South will move into GA early on Tuesday before gradually shifting eastward, moving offshore into the Atlantic ocean by Thursday. The trailing axis will remain over the Florida Peninsula through the time period. This will result in north to northeast winds turning easterly on Tuesday at 5-10 mph as the high settles into the Deep South before eventually veering east to southeast Wednesday evening and continuing through Thursday as the high moves offshore. The next cold front is forecast to approach Friday, first dropping into north Florida before reaching the far north part of the CWA Friday night/early Saturday morning. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through Wednesday, with no mentionable rain chances over land areas through that time. Isolated to scattered showers will continue to be possible over the Atlantic waters however. Rain chances return to land areas on Thursday and Friday, with isolated showers forecast along the immediate coast of the Treasure Coast both days. The frontal passage Friday night looks to be mostly dry, with no mentionable rain chances over land areas. Temperatures will be on a slight warming trend into late week, going from seasonable/slightly below normal to above normal by Thursday. Afternoon highs will generally be in the low 70s on Tuesday, mid 70s on Wednesday, and upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s Tuesday night, mid to upper 50s on Wednesday night, and upper 50s to low 60s on Thursday night and Friday night. && .MARINE... Issued at 239 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Today-Wednesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) High pressure across the Atlantic waters will produce favorable boating conditions today. East to southeast winds around 10 KT on today will veer northwest and increase to 15-20 KT on Sunday. Seas 1-3ft today will increase to 2-4ft on Sunday. Mostly dry conditions through today, with isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning storms on Sunday. Winds will increase Sunday night into Monday out of the north as strong high pressure builds over the waters behind a cold front. The tight north-northeast pressure gradient will support wind speeds 20- 30 KT with gusts to Gale force Sunday night. Seas will rapidly build 6-9 FT nearshore and up to 12 ft in the Gulf Stream. A Gale Watch has been issued for the Volusia waters starting at 21Z on Sunday and going through 12Z Monday. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the Brevard waters for 21Z Sunday, expanding to the Treasure Coast waters starting at 03Z Monday and replacing the Gale Watch across the Volusia waters starting 12Z on Monday. The SCA will likely need to be extended in time for the Gulf Stream waters. NE winds decrease 15-20 KT by late Monday before veering E/NE Tuesday at 10- 15 KT, and E/SE on Wednesday. Seas will be slower to subside, reaching 4-5 FT nearshore Tuesday with lingering 7 FT seas in the Gulf Stream before decreasing to 3-4ft on Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1238 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 Confidence in fog impacts at northern ECFL terminals, including KMCO, has decreased considerably since the last TAF package. Chances have dropped from 50-70% for MVFR, 30-50% for IFR, and 20-40% to LIFR in the 00Z guidance to 20-40% for MVFR, and 10-20% for IFR-LIFR in the latest 05Z guidance. GFS LAMP is now calling for prevailing VFR. Since the previous TAF package was already pretty conservative given the guidance at the time, and to avoid over correction, no significant changes were made and continue to call for prevailing MVFR from around 08Z-14Z at all northern terminals, and TEMPO IFR at KSFB, KLEE, and KTIX where the 20-30% chances continue. To the south, starting to see a few heavy showers creep closer to KSUA, which could cause convective impacts between 07Z-11Z. There`s potential for this activity to reach KFPR-KVRB but not confident enough for TEMPOs at this time. This activity expected to shift offshore by 14Z. Winds will turn northerly and increase to 13-18 kts with gusts 20-30 kts after Sunday evening after 23Z as a cold front pushes through Central Florida. Winds diminish a little by late Monday morning to 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts as they shift to the northeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 50 61 49 / 0 0 10 10 MCO 78 52 64 49 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 78 56 67 55 / 10 0 10 10 VRB 79 58 69 55 / 30 10 10 10 LEE 77 45 62 44 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 79 50 64 47 / 0 0 10 0 ORL 77 50 64 48 / 0 0 10 0 FPR 80 58 69 54 / 30 10 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747. High Surf Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ141-154- 159-164-347-447-647-747. AM...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ550-570. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ552. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ555-575. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ572. && $$ |
| #1254422 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 108 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will approach ENC tonight before crossing the region Sunday, with strong and cold high pressure building back in through Monday. High pressure shifts offshore by the middle of next week with moderating conditions expected. Another cold front moves through Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... As of 1 PM Saturday...Temperatures have quickly warmed into the low-to-mid 60s as of early Saturday afternoon as heights rise aloft ahead of the strong cold front that will push through ENC tomorrow. Temperatures will cool to the low-to-mid 40s by around midnight tonight before rebounding to around 50 as dawn approaches amidst increasing southwesterly flow and WAA ahead of the approaching cold front. Rain chances begin to increase just before dawn across the western/northern portions of the forecast area as the front approaches. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 PM Saturday... Key Messages: - Strong cold front to move through Sunday with sharply falling temps and breezy conditions through afternoon. - Gusty winds expected across ENC, especially along the Outer Banks where gusts to 35-45 mph are expected. A Wind Advisory has been issued for Hatteras Island and the NOBX from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. - Dangerous cold expected with wind chills in the 5-15 degree range Sunday night/Monday morning. A Cold Weather Advisory is has been issued for all of ENC. An upper-level trough will dig into the mid-Atlantic region through the day on Sunday, with a strengthening 150 kt jet streak located downstream of this feature. DCVA coupled with forcing from the jet streak will yield strengthening low pressure offshore of the mid-Atlantic states, which will aid in driving a strong cold front through the region early Sunday. While moisture is somewhat limited, favorable jet dynamics and strong frontal forcing should be sufficient to bring some precip across the area, but rainfall totals are expected to be light (generally around a tenth of an inch or less). Chances begin to increase across the western and northern portions of the forecast area around dawn on Sunday before decreasing from west- to-east during the afternoon and early evening hours. Bulk of the precip will be rain, but a stray flake or two may mix in with rain across the northern portions of the forecast area as precipitation comes to an end Sunday afternoon. No impacts or accumulation are expected, however. Southwesterly winds will increase ahead of the approaching cold front through Sunday morning, but the pressure gradient will tighten sharply after the cold front passes as low pressure deepens offshore and an Arctic High builds in from the northwest. Northwesterly winds will be breezy behind this front, with gusts 25-35 mph possible across ENC. Winds will be strongest along Hatteras Island and the NOBX, with gusts of 35-45 mph forecast late Sunday and into Sunday night. Have issued a Wind Advisory for these areas given expected winds/gusts. Daytime highs will be reached across the forecast area by Sunday morning as the cold front pushes through ENC and moves offshore by noon, with cold air advection bringing falling temperatures through the afternoon. Temps fall into the 30s by Sunday evening before plummeting further into the upper-teens (low-20s OBX) Monday morning. Coupled with breezy northwesterly winds behind the cold front, this will bring the coldest night of the season thus far, resulting in wind chill values of 5-15 F across ENC Monday morning. In response, have issued a Cold Weather Advisory for all of ENC from late Sunday evening through Monday morning. Will continue to monitor potential for an Extreme Cold Warning should lows trend colder over the coming forecast cycles. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 2 PM Saturday... Monday...Arctic high traverses ENC with cold and brisk temps expected. Highs in the 30s area-wide. Breeziest conditions expected through the morning with winds abating through the day. Monday night will be cold once again, with temps in the low-20s (near 30 OBX). Unlike Sunday night, however, winds will remain light. As of now, this is expected to keep minimum apparent temperature values near but just above Cold Weather Advisory criteria, with minimum wind chills in the 15-25 F range. Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure slides offshore Tuesday with SW flow returning bringing a warming trend through mid week (highs expected to warm into the 50s Wednesday and into the 60s by Thursday). Precip chances increase late Thursday (10-20%) and Thursday night (30-50%) with another cold front approaching and moving through the region late Thursday night. Friday through Saturday...Cold front pushes east by week`s end, with dry conditions returning. This late week trough/frontal system are forecast to be weaker than tomorrow`s system. Thus, do not currently expect as substantial of a temperature drop behind the late-week cold front. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1 AM Sun... Key Messages - MVFR ceilings develop early Sunday morning and linger into Sunday afternoon - VFR conditions return Sun evening though breezy winds persist into Mon morning Latest surface analysis shows high pressure offshore with a cold front currently noted along the Appalachians. This front will continue to move east as the evening progresses and move into ENC this morning. Out ahead of this front clear skies and light SW`rly winds are noted across the region, though some mid and high clouds have begun to stream into the far western Coastal Plain as of this update. Clouds will continue to increase from west to east, with ceilings lowering to MVFR levels (sub 3000 ft) by 6-8 am. At this time, scattered light rain will move into the area, leading to further lowering of ceilings to 1000-2000 ft through the rest of the morning hours. Most guidance has only low probabilities of IFR conditions developing (odds of 10-20% or less), but some brief periods are possible especially where rain is the steadiest, between 13-18z. To account for this chance do have a SCT deck at 800 ft between this time. Improving conditions expected tomorrow afternoon primarily after about 18Z to 22Z , however strong NW winds will develop with wind gusts 20-30 mph possible inland with 35-45 mph wind gusts possible along the OBX. Finally, increasing LLWS may bring issues to terminals overnight, mostly from 1-6 am. Outlook: Gusty NW winds will gradually ease Sun night into Mon with gusts falling below 20 mph across the inland areas by daybreak Mon and falling below 30 mph along the OBX at the same time. Winds continue to decrease throughout the day Mon becoming light and variable by Mon evening. VFR conditions persist through midweek before the next chance at sub-VFR conditions Thursday into Fri with the approach of a frontal system. && .MARINE... As of 2 PM Saturday... Key Messages - Gale conditions Sunday afternoon through Sunday night for northwesterly winds behind a passing cold front, with gusts of 30-40 kt expected Through this Evening...Good boating conditions will persist in the short term through this evening as high pressure eases offshore. Current observations show southwesterly winds 10-15 kts with gusts 15-20 kts and seas 2-3 ft. Tonight...Pressure gradient tightens tonight as cold front begins to approach from the northwest. In response, SCA conditions are expected to develop across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet with southwesterly winds increasing to 20-25 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts. Winds will be a bit lighter across the northern coastal waters and sounds/inland rivers, with winds 10-15 kts and gusts around 20 kts (although, occasional gusts to 25 kts will be possible across the southern and eastern Pamlico Sound). Seas build to 4-6 ft south (2-4 ft north) of Oregon Inlet tonight. Sunday through Sunday night...Strong CAA begins Sunday morning with passage of arctic front. Winds will abruptly shift to northwesterly with the frontal passage and quickly build to Gales across most of the area waters. Have upgraded the rest of the Gale Watches to Gale Warnings as of this forecast cycle. SCA conditions remain for the Neuse/Bay/Pamlico/Pungo Rivers; however, some guidance does indicate roughly a 30-50% chance of reaching Gale Force gusts across these waters. This will be monitored across future forecast cycles for any potential updates. Seas build through the day on Sunday before peaking at 6-10 ft across the coastal waters Sunday night. Monday...Winds die down quickly through the day on Monday, with gusts likely falling below SCA conditions late morning/early afternoon on Monday. Elevated seas will linger through much of the day, however, with 6+ ft seas lingering north of Cape Hatteras and along the Gulf Stream through Monday evening. Winds back to westerly Monday night, and gusts may flirt with SCA again across the Gulf Stream waters, especially south and east of Cape Hatteras. Tuesday through Thursday...Winds abate and broad southwesterly flow develops, with speeds in the 10-20 kt range expected. Gusts may again increase to near/just above SCA criteria across the Gulf Stream waters Wednesday. Seas will be generally 2-5 ft. Thursday night into Friday...Another round of SCA conditions looks likely late this week as southwesterly flow strengthens ahead of the next approaching cold front starting late Thursday and lasting into Friday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198- 199-203>205. Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EST Monday for NCZ203>205. MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EST Monday for AMZ131-230-231. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM EST Monday for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning from noon today to 6 AM EST Monday for AMZ150-152- 154-156-158. && $$ |
| #1254421 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 107 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Areas of Locally Dense Fog Possible Early on Sunday Morning Across Northeast and North Central FL. - Cold Weather Advisory for Sunday Night & Monday Morning. Wind Chills: 15-25F for Southeast GA, Suwannee Valley & Portions of Inland Northeast FL. Wind Advisory for Coastal Northeast FL from Early Sunday Evening through Early Monday Morning. - Freeze Warning for Southeast GA, the Suwannee Valley and Portions of Inland Northeast FL Sun Night & Monday Morning. Freeze Watches Issued for Monday Night and Early Tuesday Morning. Hard Freezes Likely Across Inland Southeast GA Early on Monday & Tuesday Mornings. Light Freezes for the Suwannee Valley & Portions of Inland Northeast FL. - Gale Warning for the Local Atlantic Coastal Waters from Late Sunday Afternoon through Early Monday Morning. High Surf Advisory for Coastal St. Johns and Flagler Counties from Late Sunday Night through Early Monday Evening. .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... IFR or LIFR conditions are expected at GNV and VQQ towards 08Z as mid and high altitude cloud cover exits and lower stratus ceilings and fog develop. Fog and low stratus ceilings may overspread the rest of the northeast FL terminals towards 10Z, but confidence was only high enough to indicate MVFR conditions at this time at JAX, CRG, and SGJ. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue at SSI through around 15Z. MVFR ceilings from 2,000-3,000 feet along an Arctic cold front will move over the SSI terminal from around 16Z-19Z, with these ceilings shifting southward across the Duval County terminals from 18Z-21Z and then impacting GNV and SGJ from 19Z-22Z. VFR conditions will then prevail at the regional terminals by 23Z. Southerly surface winds sustained at 5-10 knots will prevail overnight at SSI, with light southwesterly winds developing at the northeast FL terminals after 09Z. Surface winds will shift to westerly and will increase to 5-10 knots by 15Z, followed by winds shifting to northwesterly and steadily increasing to 15-20 knots with higher gusts after 17Z. Surface winds will then shift to northerly after 00Z, with sustained speeds increasing to 15-25 knots with higher gusts at SGJ and SSI by 03Z, while speeds at the inland terminals remain sustained in the 10-15 knot range with occasional higher gusts. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Some increase in high clouds tonight, but overall forecast remains on track with temps not as cold as previous nights with lows in the 45-50F range inland and 50-55F along the Atlantic Coast. Near calm winds at the surface will help to support locally dense fog formation across most of NE FL to the south of the I-10 corridor, while a slight increase in winds across SE GA towards morning ahead of approaching frontal boundary should prevent significant fog formation there. Latest model blend guidance suggesting about 20-40% chances of dense fog formation across portions of NE FL late tonight, but not confident in enough coverage to support dense fog advisories at this time. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will continue to build south and eastward throughout the day on Monday, settling in possibly the coldest and driest airmass of the winter season so far. Winds will turn more northeasterly throughout the day as the high pressure ridge builds southward, and be quite breezy through the morning hours and into the early afternoon before rather quickly subsiding during the evening and after sunset. Winds will range from the 10-15G20 range over inland GA to around 15-20G30 closer to the coast and over much of northeast FL, and combined with highs in the 40s and 50s will make the air feel up to 5-10 degrees colder. Weak troughing along the coastal waters will result in scattered cloud cover over eastern counties, with mostly sunny skies expected inland. Monday night, the high will settle over southern GA, with weak troughing remaining over the coastal waters and keeping a light north to northeasterly breeze around 5-10 mph overnight closer to the coast and St. Johns River Basin. Across much of the interior, radiational cooling conditions will be much more favorable closer to the high pressure center, and therefore a rather wide range in low temperatures is expected Monday Night. Lows in the low to mid 20s will be common over inland SE GA, upper 20s to mid 30s are forecast north and west of the St. Johns River Basin and Upper Suwannee River Valley in northeast FL, and upper 30s to mid 40s will be expected for the NE FL coast/areas furthest south and east. With the prime radiational cooling conditions the further north and west you go, a Freeze Watch has been posted for much of the interior Monday Night, where areas/widespread frost is also likely. High pressure slowly shifts eastward into the Atlantic throughout the day Tuesday and through Tuesday Night, gradually shifting the light north to northeast winds towards towards the east-northeast to east. This will help to moderate our temperatures rather quickly on Tuesday, though still trending a bit below normal with highs ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s north to the mid to upper 60s south. The coastal trough, albeit weaker on Tuesday, will keep a few low clouds around closer to the coast with plenty of sunshine elsewhere. Though the airmass will be moderated somewhat, conditions will still be rather favorable for radiational cooling Tuesday Night, with lows in the 30s likely across inland GA with 40s expected elsewhere. The only limiting factor will be some increasing mid and high clouds across the area Tuesday Night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The area will remain on the western periphery of the above mentioned high pressure ridge Wednesday before shifting further offshore Thursday ahead of the next frontal system taking shape over the Plains. The next frontal system will move through the area around Friday and Friday Night, though it does not look to be as strong as the system from earlier in the week. Rain chances also look limited with this system at this time, with drought conditions expected to continue through the long term. Temperatures will be near normal Wednesday, trending above normal for Thursday and Friday before likely falling closer to normal into the start of the weekend after the frontal system moves through. && .MARINE... Fair maritime conditions continue through Sunday afternoon before a strong, arctic cold front pushes through the waters Sunday, bringing gales and moderately high seas, especially offshore, during the overnight hours Sunday into Monday. North-northwesterly winds nearing gale force developing through the overnight hours Sunday into Monday with frequent gusts up to 40 knots. For this a Gale Watch has been issued across all the waters Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Winds should decrease to Small Craft Advisory levels late Monday morning and continue to as high pressure slides in from the north. Seas will lower Monday night with the diminishing winds with generally fair maritime conditions through Thursday as a weaker front approaches from the northwest. Rip Currents: Southeast GA Moderate Today, High on Monday Northeast FL Low Today, High Monday && .FIRE WEATHER... A strong cold front will move southeast across the area today and into tonight, ushering in a much drier and cooler airmass into the region. Strong high pressure will build behind this boundary through Monday. Rain chances will be very low with the front (around 5-10%), with the main impact along with drier conditions being breezy northwest to northerly winds in the 10-20G30 mph range inland and 15- 25G40 mph range near the coast. Conditions will approach elevated fire danger over interior southeast GA this afternoon and evening behind the front, though minRH values are expected to only reach about 30-35%. Dispersions will be good to borderline high area wide today. Very dry airmass will linger through monday with RH values in the 20-30% range over inland GA, though fortunately winds will subside essentially throughout the day. Weaker winds and lower dispersions will return Tuesday and into mid week as high pressure settles almost directly over the area. The next frontal boundary doesn`t look to approach the region until about Friday. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy to areas of fog will be expected early this morning, with greatest coverage south of Gainesville. A hard freeze and dangerous wind chills are expected for most of the area Monday morning, though winds will be too strong for frost in most areas. Widespread Frost will be likely over SE GA and inland NE FL Monday night. Areas of frost likely inland SE GA once again Tuesday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 63 24 44 23 / 10 0 0 0 SSI 68 32 47 36 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 70 32 51 34 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 72 44 56 45 / 0 0 10 0 GNV 73 33 56 35 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 75 39 59 38 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for FLZ021- 023-024-030-031-035-120-124-125-132-136-220-225-232-236- 322-325-422-425-522. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for FLZ021-023- 024-030-031-035-120-124-136-220-225-232-236-322-422-425- 522. Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-136-220-232-236-322-422- 425-522. Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. High Surf Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ138-233- 333. GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ132>136- 149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ450-470. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1254420 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 108 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A powerful arctic cold front will blast through the Carolinas today. High pressure following the front will bring very cold temperatures Sunday night through Monday night. Temperatures will then gradually warm up Tuesday and Wednesday with another mainly dry cold frontal passage expected Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Big story continues to be the frigid air mass that will follow the cold front moving into the forecast area right around daybreak. The mid to late morning timing of the front will result in high temperatures occurring in the morning, making the high temp forecast very uncertain. Impressive cold advection begins within an hour or two of fropa and by noon the entire forecast area will be under the influence of strong cold advection. Temperatures will tumble through the afternoon, on their way to mid teens tonight. Strong, gusty winds develop with the arrival of the cold air, and as skies clear out gusts get an extra boost. Gusts approaching 40 mph are not out of the realm of possibility in areas where skies clear out several hours before sunset. Breezy conditions continue this evening and overnight. Near record cold coupled with winds 15-20 mph will lead to wind chill values under 10 degrees. Winds do start to ease a few hours prior to daybreak which helps keep wind chills above the magic 5 degree mark needed for an Extreme Cold Warning. Have dropped the Extreme Cold Watch and opted for a Cold Weather Advisory based on the latest forecast. The front will be accompanied by a narrow band of scattered to widely scattered showers. Just ahead of the front there is narrow band of precipitable water in excess of 200% of normal. Frontal convergence should be enough to overcome the somewhat stable surface layer and tap into the weak elevated instability. Limited moisture above 10k ft, barely above the freezing layer, so no concern of thunder given the low topped nature of any showers that develop. Low level jet of 30-40 kt may lead to some gusty winds with stronger showers, but nothing damaging. Overall rainfall will be limited due to the narrow nature of the moisture and rapid movement of the showers, 30+ mph. Most areas will see no more than 0.10". && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Modified Arctic air mass will be settling over the Carolinas into Monday. This very dry and chilly air will lead to temps struggling to reach 40 degrees. Could be near record low max aftn temps with dewpoint temps in the single digits, down close to 0 by aftn. The very dry air mass will maintain zero chance of rain through the period. The stiff northerly winds will diminish through the day as the center of the high migrates nearly overhead. By Mon eve, the winds will back around to the SW as the center shifts offshore, but winds should die off keeping overnight lows down close to 20 degrees most places inland of coast with better radiational cooling. Air mass will begin to modify with WAA in southerly return flow. H5 heights will rise with weak ridging in the mid to upper levels. The 850 temps will be on the rise after bottoming out around -8c early Monday morning. Temps will rebound a good 25 to 30 degrees up to near or above 50 Tues aftn. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Air mass will continue to modify in southerly return flow as high pressure shifts farther offshore. Temps will reach near or just above 60 under December sunshine on Wed. A warming trend will continue until mid to upper trough pushes a cold front through Fri. Temps will reach into the 60s on Thurs and 70s on Friday ahead of the front. As it looks right now, best chance of pcp will be ahead of the front Friday morning. Temps will drop behind the front on Sat but may remain above normal. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Couple hour window of MVFR bordering on IFR possible this morning as a strong cold front moves across the region. Showers along the front will briefly lower ceilings under 2k ft and drop visibilities to 3-5 SM. Threat of MVFR/IFR rapidly decreases by midday with VFR quick to return. Bigger story will be strong, gusty winds. Ahead of the front, low level wind shear will be a concern, especially at inland terminals where surface winds are weaker. Once the front passes winds will quickly shift to west then northwest with speeds 15-20 kt and potential for gusts near 30 kt. Gusty winds will continue through the evening and until at least 06Z, although speeds will be somewhat reduced. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR through the extended period. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Gale Warning remains in effect for all of the waters. A strong cold front will move offshore early this afternoon. Brief period of strong offshore flow in the wake of the front will lead to winds 30- 35kt with higher gusts. Duration of gale force winds may end up being a little shorter than the current warning, but whenever the gale does come down a small craft advisory will be needed. Although conditions will be improving the advisory is likely to run past daybreak Mon. Seas 3-5 ft today build to 4-7 ft tonight due to the strength of the northwest flow. Seas will be a mix of dominant wind waves and background swell from the southeast. Wind wave will be southwest into the afternoon but then a northerly wind wave develops and quickly becomes the dominant wave. Monday through Thursday...Small Craft Advisory conditions will be coming to an end mid to late Mon morning as gradient relaxes as high pressure migrates across the Southeast reaching closer overhead by late Mon. The high will shift farther offshore and out into the Atlantic leaving the area waters in a light southerly return flow through midweek until next cold front moves through on friday. Seas will be down to 3 ft or less by Mon eve and will remain that way until cold front approaches on Fri. && .CLIMATE... Record Low Temps for Dec 15: KILM: 17 / 2010 KLBT: 13 / 2010 KCRE: 17 / 1944 KFLO: 13 / 2010 Record Low High Temps for Dec 15: KILM: 34 / 1958 KLBT: 37 / 1949 KCRE: 40 / 2010 KFLO: 35 / 1958 && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. SC...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1254419 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:15 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1208 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Conditions will turn sharply towards the wintry after a strong cold front finishes passing through the region overnight. - Hazardous marine conditions continue on the waters - but the dense fog of recent nights will be replaced by near-Gale to Gale conditions on coastal waters. On coastal islands and peninsulas, the expected gusty winds have also prompted a wind advisory for Sunday. - Freezing overnight temperatures are anticipated for a good portion of SE TX late Sunday night into Monday morning. Freeze Watches have been posted for locations that haven`t seen their first freeze of the season. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1111 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 A cold front is making its way across Southeast Texas late this evening. For now, the main indicator of the front passing is a smattering of scattered showers, mostly to the east of I-45. However, once the cold airmass behind the front starts to surge into the area, we should see conditions change fairly quickly. Whatever temperatures are at midnight? That`s going to be the high for today, as post-frontal north winds will pick up quickly to signal the arrival of the western fringes of a sharp, arctic airmass pushing into the Continental US. Temperatures will fall through the night, then hold steady and...maybe...rise a few degrees during the day, then head right on back to falling once the sun is low enough that it can no longer overcome the combined powers of radiational cooling and cold air advection. Winds will be gusty, but not necessarily excessively so for most of the area for any real duration. Peak gusts may end up being around 30 mph over the rural west, but should mostly be in the 10-20 mph range with some gusts up into the 20s. This is getting awfully close to the threshold for a wind advisory, but without sustained winds above 25 mph or several hours of gusts over that, I`ve opted to hold off for now. The exception to this? Chambers County (primarily the parts downwind of Trinity Bay) and area islands and peninsulas beyond the Intracoastal Waterway. These locations should all have relatively low-friction surfaces upstream of them, allowing winds to crank up a bit more. So, I did opt to issue a wind advisory for those zones today. Once the sun goes down and we lose the ability to mix down stronger winds just aloft, gusts should come down significantly. Also going down significantly overnight into Monday morning? Yup, those temperatures. A large freeze watch remains in place for locations that are expected to see relatively widespread dips below freezing tonight for the first time this season. Yesterday was probably the best time to finish off those cold weather prep while it was still warm - but if you`ve got some exposed pipes to wrap, plants to bring in, etc. you`ll have all day today to take care of that as well. Though this shot of wintry air will be chilly, no doubt, it also looks to be pretty short-lived. Winds look to turn back around to being onshore later on Monday, which will begin us on the process of bringing in warmer, more humid Gulf air. It won`t be an immediate turnaround - Monday night will still be a cold one across the area - but probabilities for sub-freezing temps go way down for all but the Piney Woods beyond Lake Livingston. After this cold shot, we do have a couple more things to keep an eye out for this week. The first will be Wednesday as an upper trough scoots across Texas, potentially also spinning up a trough or weak low over the Gulf. We certainly do have plenty of the ingredients for our next round of showers and perhaps some storms in the general area for this period. But, it`s also probably worth mentioning that any surface low looks to be well offshore, which won`t necessarily be great for strong low level moisture return. I`ve got slight chance (well inland) to chance (coast) PoPs late Tuesday night and Wednesday, but I don`t know that there`s a whole lot to say about it beyond that. Unless...in the next couple of days, guidance starts to line up these holes in the cheese a little more. Something to evaluate over the next couple of days, but from the data I have now, not particularly worrying. Later this week, we`ll look for our next cold front in the train to move on through. Unlike tonight`s front, which is powered by a deepening upper trough and pool of arctic air surging into the CONUS...this next one will see flow aloft remain more zonal, and the coldest air remain hemmed up in the northern tier of the country...at least until the 1040+ mb surface high drops in, but by then, it will be well to the east of us. For here, Friday looks to get a bit cooler, and Friday night a little chilly (think lows in the 40s and 50s, not 20s and 30s). But really, it will just be the quick hop step as we polka our way towards higher temperatures and the weekend. No? Nothing? Huh, that line woulda been big in Sheboygan... && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 558 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 A somewhat tricky forecast for the overnight period. Cigs and vis are expected to continue to lower this evening and tonight to IFR-MVFR and areas of patchy to dense fog could also reduce vis for some of our sites, in particular for sites closer to the water due to the development of sea fog. In addition, iso-sct showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead and along a cold front that is progged to move through SE TX tonight. Winds will be light and VRB tonight, but N winds at 15-20 KTS with gusts of 23-30 KTS will develop in the wake of the front. Cigs will gradually lift and scatter out on Sun as drier air moves in, but winds will remain elevated through the evening, gradually relaxing during the night hours. Cotto && .MARINE... Issued at 1111 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 In the remaining hours before the front arrives, expect light onshore winds, low seas, and even patchy fog redevelopment. The front is about to move into the Houston metro, and should be pushing into the bays after midnight, and out over the Gulf between 3 and 6 am. While light winds and any fog may linger for a short while after the front passes, they will scour out shortly afterwards as strong, gusty north to northeast winds build in the front`s wake. Along with the strong winds, building seas will follow. Gusts to near gale force are expected on the bays, and frequent gusts to or above gale are likely on the Gulf. A Small Craft Advisory is in place for the Bays and a Gale Warning on the Gulf until late Sunday night. For those working onshore, a wind advisory is in place on all islands and peninsulas beyond the Intracoastal Waterway as well as Chambers County on Sunday. Winds and seas gradually diminish Monday morning, and return to a southeast direction by Monday night. The quick turn in winds should prevent low tides from getting low enough to require a Low Water Advisory, but we should still see a few low tide cycles with levels around or slightly below MLLW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 48 53 30 55 / 20 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 53 57 33 54 / 40 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 54 61 37 53 / 50 20 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for TXZ178-195>200-210>214-227-300-313. Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for TXZ214-436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 3 AM CST Monday for GMZ330-335. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ350-355- 370-375. Gale Warning from 9 AM Sunday to 3 AM CST Monday for GMZ350-355- 370-375. && $$ |
| #1254417 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:00 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1154 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1152 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 - Near to below normal temperatures in the wake of our next cold front Sunday through Tuesday - Low chances (20-40%) for showers today with the frontal passage - Gale Warning for Sunday and Sunday night across the Gulf waters && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1152 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 A cold front will swing across the region tonight providing some relief to our most recent warm stretch. Temperatures will be near normal Sunday and Tuesday with Monday featuring below normal temperatures. Unfortunately this cool weather will be short lived as another warming trend awaits us for mid-week. Most of the forecast period will be dry, with Sunday and Wednesday being the only exceptions with a low (20-40%) chance for showers. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Areas of fog with IFR conditions can be expected ahead of a cold front overnight. Light winds have already shifted to the N-NE for COT and VCT. The wind shift is expected for LRD, ALI and CRP between 08-11Z. A mix of IFR and MVFR conditions will continue behind the wind shift through 12-15Z. However, winds are expected to strengthen as high pressure builds into S TX which will lift conditions to VFR for COT and VCT gradually through Sunday afternoon. MVFR conditions are expected to continue for the southern TAF sites. Winds are forecast to increase to 20-25 knots with gusts around 30 knots by mid morning, then decrease by late afternoon or early evening. There is a low (10-30%) chance of showers with the cold front and lingering behind the cold front. Rain chances end from north to south through early afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1152 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Near Gale to Gale (BF 7-8) northeast winds will develop this morning across the Gulf waters and continue through Sunday night. As we head into Monday morning, winds will quickly relax to moderate levels (BF 4) and shift to the southeast which will then hang around for the rest of the week. Medium to high (30-70%) chances for rain can be expected today with rain chances quickly tapering off Sunday evening. Our next chance for rain will return Tuesday night into Wednesday with a medium (40-50%) chance for showers across the Gulf waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1152 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Despite the passage of our next cold front, relative humidity levels are expected to remain above 30% with relatively light to moderate winds, except for Sunday, where winds can gust to 25-30 mph. However, due to the relative humidity remaining above critical levels, elevated fire weather conditions will not expected through early this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 60 68 43 59 / 20 20 0 0 Victoria 54 62 34 57 / 20 10 0 0 Laredo 61 68 47 62 / 0 40 0 0 Alice 58 68 42 61 / 20 20 0 0 Rockport 58 67 43 58 / 20 20 0 0 Cotulla 57 62 42 60 / 10 10 0 0 Kingsville 60 68 43 61 / 10 30 0 0 Navy Corpus 62 68 48 58 / 20 20 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Sunday to 3 AM CST Monday for GMZ231-232-236-237. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ250-255- 270-275. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ250-255- 270-275. Gale Warning from 9 AM Sunday to 3 AM CST Monday for GMZ250-255- 270-275. && $$ |
| #1254416 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:51 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1236 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front crosses the the Mid Atlantic late tonight night into Sunday, with accumulating snow possible Sunday, especially on the Eastern Shore. Arctic air moves in behind the cold front Sunday evening into Sunday night, and provides a cold start to next week. The very cold temperatures do quickly give way to relatively milder temperatures for the middle to end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 930 PM EST Saturday... - A strong cold front brings low-end snow potential and blustery conditions on Sunday. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the Lower MD Eastern Shore for the potential for 1-2" of snow. - A brief period of light snow could amount to 0.5-1 inch of accumulation as far south as Richmond, few tenths as far south as Williamsburg. A slight uptick in snowfall amounts has been made as incoming 00z/14 model data and 18z/13 ensembles shows an increase in northern portions of the area, including Richmond and the northern neck. Snowfall amounts have increased about 0.5" with totals of 0.5-1" expected for Richmond and north. Temperatures remain marginal, but a slight increase in QPF and strong forcing has led to this increase, along with models showing the possibility of 1"/hr for these areas. Additionally, probs of 1" of snow have increased in the EPS further south than previous ensemble runs. With all this said, there is not quite enough confidence to need to expand the Winter Weather Advisory at this time. Previous Discussion: Transient sfc high pressure has shifted offshore with weak SSW flow ahead of an approaching Arctic cold front (which is still over the Appalachians). A deep trough is located over the Great Lakes and Ontario, with a shortwave tracking over the Midwest at the base of the trough. It is milder than it has been with temps in the mid 40s- lower 50s this afternoon. The Arctic cold front approaches the area tonight and crosses the area from late tonight into Sunday AM. The trough over the Great Lakes amplifies as it dives SE while the shortwave tracks across the Mid-Atlantic. The best forcing for ascent will miss us to our north. However, precipitation will enter far northern portions of the area after midnight, slowly spreading S/SE toward the I-64 corridor and lower Eastern Shore heading toward sunrise. S/SE progression continues through the morning before exiting offshore by early afternoon. Precip will likely last a few hours over the northern neck and eastern shore. While likely PoPs extend to the RIC Metro, precip will last 2 hours at most across the SW 2/3 of the area (including the RIC Metro and Hampton Roads). The most likely timing for precip is from 4-10 AM across the northern neck/eastern shore, 6-10 AM in the RIC Metro, and 8 AM-1 PM in SE VA/NE NC. With the Arctic FROPA, precip may very briefly begin as rain but will quickly change to snow in most areas outside of far SE VA/NE NC. Still think that at least 0.1" is likely along and NE of a Richmond- Williamsburg line, with 0.5-1" expected across the northern neck, and 1-2" on the MD Eastern Shore. Could see a dusting in Hampton Roads if the changeover occurs in time. The coldest air won`t arrive until Sun aftn/evening, so temps will only drop to 31-33F when the snow is falling. Therefore, accums will mainly be on grassy surfaces except on the MD Eastern Shore and perhaps the northern neck where snowfall rates may briefly reach 0.75"/hour. Have expended the Winter Wx Advisory to include all MD Eastern Shore counties. If snow lasts longer than expected, a "reasonable worst case" would be up to 3" in Dorchester/Wicomico and up to 2" for the rest of the Eastern Shore and Northern Neck. Outside of precip chances, Sunday will be blustery as cold air rushes in behind the front. Winds will pick up by mid-morning Sunday and peak in the afternoon as the strongest CAA arrives. Gusts up to 35 mph are likely inland, with 45 mph gusts expected at the immediate Atlantic coast. With this in mind, have issued Wind Advisories for the VA Eastern Shore, VA Beach, and Eastern Currituck starting Sun aftn and continuing through Sun night. Highs range from the low 30s across the north to the low 40s in the SE, which will occur in the morning before temps drop in the afternoon. By mid- afternoon, wind chills could be as low as the mid teens. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for the entire area for bitterly cold temps Sunday night/Monday morning with wind chills in the single digits. - Chilly and dry Monday and Monday night with a slow moderating trend beginning on Tuesday. Strong cold air advection continues Sunday night ushering in bitterly cold temperatures. Much of the area will see temps in the upper teens by midnight with Monday morning lows in the mid-teens for most of the area and the upper teens to around 20F close to the coast. While winds will not be quite as strong as Sunday night, there will be enough wind to knock wind chills down into the single digits for the entire area. Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for the entire area for consistent messaging, even though the lower 5F criteria may not be reached in all central VA/VA Piedmont zones as winds diminish Sun night. The only other thing to watch for is the potential for some light bay effect snow showers in Accomack/Northampton Counties with the cold NW flow. The ECMWF and the vast majority of its ensemble members continue to forecast 0.02- 0.04" of QPF over a decent portion of the VA Eastern Shore Sun night, while the other models (including the RGEM and CAMs which normally pick up on this type of thing) have no QPF with the LLVL flow a little bit more westerly. This is still low confidence but have added slight chc for snow showers to these zones to account for the possibility. The Arctic sfc high slides in overhead Monday, leading to a cold and mostly sunny day with much less wind. Highs will be in the low to mid 30s. Not quite as cold on Monday night with lows in the low to mid 20s. A moderating trend begins on Tue as the high slides to our SE. Forecast highs are mainly in the upper 30s-mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Much warmer temperatures (compared to the first half of December) are on the way for the middle and end of the week. - Another (weaker) cold front brings another chance for light rain Thursday night. December 2025 has been one of the chilliest on record for many of our climate sites. However, quite the change is on the way for the extended period, with a pronounced warming trend continuing into the midweek period and likely peaking Thursday. The synoptic pattern will be characterized by rather progressive, quasi-zonal flow and building heights/thicknesses Tuesday night through Thursday. At the surface, transient high pressure is expected to remain offshore to our SE. All of this favors milder temps with high temperatures in the mid 50s by Wednesday. A warm front then lifts northward Thursday in advance of another cold front. There is some uncertainty regarding the exact progression of the warm front which will determine how warm temps get. For example, some guidance pushes the warm front through earlier Thursday. This would allow for mild temps areawide Thursday. On the other hand, another possible solution has the warm front lifting north in the evening and overnight Thursday. This would favor cooler temps Thursday, especially across the N. Regardless, it will likely be very mild (for December`s standards) later Thursday and especially early Thursday night. The cold front crosses the region Thursday night, bringing another chance for precip. At this time, QPF looks inconsequential (ensemble means are around a 0.25" or less). High pressure builds back in from the W Friday, settling over the area Saturday. While it likely temporarily trends cooler for the weekend, there are no signs of any additional significant cold air outbreaks. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1235 AM EST Sunday... High clouds and light 5 kt SW winds are expected for for the next few hours ahead of an Arctic front. The front will cross the terminals late tonight/early morning around 10-16z. A few hours of precipitation will likely accompany the front. A period of -RASN is likely at RIC/SBY changing to all snow with a couple hours worth of IFR VSBYs (best chc at SBY but an hour or so of IFR VSBYs is possible in -SN at RIC). Will note that LIFR VIS is possible at SBY and RIC with a brief band of heavier snowfall. A rain/snow mix is expected at PHF/ORF, with mainly rain at ECG. Could also see some sleet mixing in at these terminals. In addition to the precip, CIGs will drop behind the front to IFR at all terminals before returning to dry and VFR conditions this afternoon with terminals further west seeing clearing conditions first. Behind the front, NW winds will increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt. VFR conditions will prevail Sunday night through Wednesday. Gusty winds Sunday night into Monday morning near the coast will diminish on Monday. && .MARINE... As of 230 PM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - A strong, Arctic cold front crosses the waters early Sunday morning, with Gale conditions expected later Sunday morning into Sunday night over all of the waters. - Light freezing spray is possible Sunday night. - Another round of SCAs is possible Monday night into early Tuesday. A strong cold front is located NW of the region this afternoon, with high pressure now centered well offshore. In between these features, a weak warm front has shifted the winds to the S-SW. Regardless, marine conditions are generally benign with wind speeds 15 kt or less (highest northern coastal waters). Any elevated southerly flow diminishes across the N this evening into tonight, with SW winds 5- 10 kt for most of the night. Then, the strong front (of Arctic origin) drops southward through the waters after 09z/4 AM. In the wake of the strong cold front early Sunday morning, very cold and dry air advects into the region. Extremely cold temperatures aloft (850 mb temps as low as -20 C) mix down to the surface across (relatively) warmer waters, creating very windy conditions. Winds rapidly increase and become NW Sunday morning, with sustained winds of 25 to 30 knots and gusts of 35+ knots expected by late morning- early afternoon over a majority of the waters. Winds increase further during the afternoon-evening hours, peaking between roughly ~00z to 06z Monday (7 PM Sun to 1 AM Mon); sustained winds of 30 to 35 knots and gusts up to 45 knots are expected during this timeframe. Given the extreme airmass change, would not be surprised if brief storm-force wind gusts were realized, especially at the elevated observation sites. Gale Warnings are in effect for all zones starting early Sunday morning.Winds should fall below Gale thresholds everywhere by sunrise Monday morning, and then below SCA thresholds by Monday afternoon, as high pressure builds back into the area. In addition to the wind, seas build to 6 to 10 feet by Sunday night, though the slight offshore component of the wind should help to keep seas from building further. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay will build to 4 to 6 feet. Finally, some freezing spray is possible Sunday night due to the strong winds and cold air temperatures. However, marginal water temperatures (low to mid 40s) should keep any freezing spray light. Thus, will keep mention of this out of the text forecast for now. Calmer conditions are anticipated later Monday, though a brief surge of S-SW wind may lead to additional SCA headlines (mainly over the Chesapeake Bay) late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Sub- SCA conditions then return Tuesday into Wednesday. Another cold front may bring increasing winds Thursday into Friday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MDZ021>025. Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for MDZ021>025. NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for NCZ102. VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100- 509>525. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for VAZ098>100. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for VAZ062-064-069-075>078-083-085-509>522. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 AM early this morning to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ630-631. Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ632-634-650-652-654. Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ633-635>638-656-658. && $$ |
| #1254415 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1243 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1236 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms through this morning, with best chances of rain over metro SE Florida. Periods of heavy rainfall may result in localized flooding. - Marine conditions will begin deteriorating later tonight with hazardous boating conditions through Monday night. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1205 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Very tricky rainfall forecast for tonight into Sunday across South FL. Low level moisture is expected to increase this evening as the flow becomes more E/SE and a weak low in the SE Gulf eventually moves over the far southern peninsula early Sunday, riding along a weak frontal boundary that will slowly lift north across Southern FL. At the upper levels, there is a deep trough that will dig through the eastern US with the trough axis expected to move across FL sometime late Sunday night. This will also help push a cold front through the area overnight Sunday into early Monday morning. Given the weak surface features involved, not a surprise that the hi- res guidance is all over the place regarding rainfall amounts over the next 24 hours. 25th percentile amounts are generally a couple tenths of an inch, where the 90th percentile precip amounts show pockets of 1-3 inches across the east coast metro. HREF PWAT values peak at 1.5-1.8 inches, with the highest PWAT values centered over far SE FL. Given the high end potential if all the ingredients come together, WPC has introduced a marginal risk of excessive rain across the east coast metro which is reasonable given that if the higher end numbers occur, there would be a limited urban flood threat across typical poor drainage locations. Bulk of the showers and thunderstorms should be tonight and into early Sunday across South FL, with diminishing PoPs as the day progresses on Sunday with the weak low moving off to the east. Residual low level moisture will keep a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast on Sunday until the cold front arrives late Sunday night. Temperatures this weekend will be slightly above normal with highs in the lower 80s. Low temps tonight will range from the lower 60s around the lake to upper 60s across the east coast metro. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Global solutions remain in good agreement in bringing sprawling high pressure across the region in the wake of a FROPA for much the work week. Robust northerly flow will bring colder/drier air advection across the Florida peninsula. Wind gusts could reach the 30 mph range along the Atlantic coast at times on Monday and Monday evening. POPs also drop back to single digits on Monday, although latest NBM insists in keeping just a sliver of slight chances of showers right along the Atlantic coast through the afternoon hours. Afterwards, the dry air makes a final push and brings POPs to near zero through the rest of the long term. Therefore, expect generally benign and pleasant weather to prevail through the rest of the forecast period. Coolest days should be Monday and Tuesday with afternoon highs in the mid-upper 70s. Coldest morning should happen Tuesday before sunrise, with lows dipping into the low-mid 50s around Glades and northern Hendry counties. Warming trend then follows on Wednesday with highs back into the upper 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 ESE winds 5-10 kts along with scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through this morning. Winds become WNW 10-15 kts and gusty early this afternoon. Periods of MVFR/IFR cigs still possible with the heavier showers. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Moderate easterly winds continue through tonight, then winds shift northerly and increasing behind a frontal passage. Conditions will likely reach advisory levels by Monday morning with the stronger winds. Meanwhile, conditions should remain fairly benign through the this afternoon, then showers and thunderstorms will begin increasing tonight and through Sunday. Brief periods of rough seas and gusty wind will accompany any thunderstorm that may form. && .BEACHES... Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 A High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect for all Atlantic beaches until later tonight. Another round high risk is likely early next week with the passage of another frontal system. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 81 65 74 64 / 70 20 20 10 West Kendall 82 62 75 58 / 60 20 20 0 Opa-Locka 82 65 75 62 / 70 20 20 10 Homestead 82 65 76 63 / 60 20 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 80 65 73 64 / 70 30 20 0 N Ft Lauderdale 81 65 72 63 / 60 30 20 0 Pembroke Pines 82 64 75 61 / 70 30 20 0 West Palm Beach 81 65 71 62 / 60 30 10 0 Boca Raton 82 65 74 63 / 60 30 20 0 Naples 80 59 76 57 / 40 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST early this morning for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1254414 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:24 AM 14.Dec.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1111 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1108 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 * Fog, mist, low stratus possible again tonight. * Warmer than normal temperatures and mainly rain-free weather will prevail through next week. * Our next best chance for rain will be on Sunday in response to a cold front; medium (30-60%) chances on Sunday. * Another chance for showers and storms will be in the Tuesday through Wednesday timeframe. * Hazardous marine and coastal conditions are expected to develop on Sunday and persist through Monday in response to the cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1108 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 The forecast period for Deep South Texas and the Lower Rio Grande Valley will continue to consist of warmer than normal temps with a couple chances for rain. Environmentally, tonight will be similar to the past couple of nights (e.g light winds, clear skies, and plenty of low level moisture) and therefore suitable for the potential of fog, mist, and/or low stratus development. Due to the persistence in the pattern and expectations for sufficient radiational cooling through tonight, have opted to issue a Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Sunday morning for all of Deep South Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. Big changes to the weather pattern takes place on Sunday as a strong southward advancing cold front approaches the region. This cold front is associated with an Arctic 1040-1045 mb sfc high pressure system that will be established over the Midwest U.S. Increased sfc convergence and a nearby weak shortwave trough will increase the prospects for showers (maybe an isolated thunder or two as MLCAPE values will be as high as 500 J/kg) to develop over the region on Sunday. We`ve maintained medium (30-60%) chances for showers across Deep South Texas on Sunday. Rain chances diminish from north to south as the cold front sweeps through the region and shifts into northeastern Mexico Sunday evening/night. The other aspect of this cold front will be the winds. Windy conditions are expected to develop on Sunday. Courtesy of how strong the Arctic high is over the Midwest, along and behind the cold fropa, enhanced pressure gradients or tightening isobars will result in blustery northerly winds developing. Late morning through the afternoon and into the evening hours, strong north winds with speeds between 20-30 mph could gusts as high as 35-40 mph, particularly along and east of IH-69C. The strongest of winds will be closer to the coast. In fact, gale force winds are possible over the Gulf Waters (see MARINE SECTION for more details). This winds will decrease in time as the evening progresses. Tuesday through Wednesday is another period that we have to continue to monitor for the potential of showers and thunderstorms. During this time period, a return flow out of the south on the backside of a broad sfc high pressure system centered over the Southeastern U.S. and on the leeward side of a rather potent 575 mb mid-upper low pressure system over northern Mexico will result in increased moisture and warm air advection (WAA) Tuesday through Wednesday. Increased atmospheric moisture content and instability interacting with a nearby shortwave trough or weak frontal boundary plus impulses riding along the southwesterly jet aloft will result in increased prospects for showers and thunderstorms in the Tuesday through Wednesday timeframe. Low-medium (20-40%) PoPs have been established over Deep South Texas during this time period. The best chances looks to be Tuesday evening through Wednesday and the upper level low and associated perturbations get into closer proximity to the region. Areas along and east of IH-69C has the highest chances/risk. Again, we will continue to monitor these trends in the days ahead. A downtrend in temperatures can be expected Sunday through Monday before temperatures begin moderating/warming on Tuesday. Late next week into next weekend, the cold and wintry weather across the northern U.S. begins to retreat northward into Canada as flat ridging (low amplitude 500 mb pattern) envelopes a vast majority of the Lower 48, marking a major large scale weather pattern change towards the milder, less wintry side. For us here in Deep South Texas, this means a stabilized, warmer than normal pattern will solidly be in place with less risk of cool frontal passages and less fluctuations in temperatures. Overall, temps will continue to average out warmer than normal for the balance of the forecast period with daytime highs in the 80s most locations each day except for Sunday through Tuesday. Ahead of the cold front on Sunday, high temperatures will top out in the 70s most places early in the day before falling. Monday is progged to be the coolest day of the forecast period with daytime highs struggling to make it out of the 60s. Finally, on Tuesday, temperatures will begin to moderate as daytime highs are expected to climb back into the 70s most places. Wednesday through at least next Sunday, above normal temperatures will be driven by a 585-588 mb ridge. Overnight low temperatures will mainly be in the 60s during the forecast period. Sunday night into Monday will be the coolest with overnight lows in the 40s across the Northern Ranchlands and 50s along the RGV. Monday night into Tuesday, overnight lows will be in the 50s most places. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1108 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Key Aviation IDSS Messages: * IFR-VLIFR conditions are possible again tonight due to fog (possibly dense), mist, and/or low stratus. * Strong cold front arrives Sunday morning from north to south; winds will shift out of the north and become blustery late morning through the afternoon hours. Northerly winds could gusts as high as 25-30 kts. * Rain showers will be associated with the arrival and passage of the cold front on Sunday. Over the next few hours, the main weather concern like the previous couple of nights will be the potential for another round of fog (possibly dense), mist, and low stratus developing. Ahead of an approaching cold front, the environmental conditions this evening/tonight will be very similar to previous nights. That is light winds, mainly clear skies, and copious amounts of low level moisture. Given the persistence in the pattern and expectation of sufficient radiational cooling taking place through tonight, TEMPO groups have been added through tonight at all of the TAF sites to account for the potential for fog/mist/low stratus developing yet again. Any fog or low stratus that develops will have the capabilities of reducing flight categories down to MVFR and eventually IFR-VLIFR levels. Big changes to the weather pattern is expected to take place over the next 6-12 hours. A strong cold front is expected to push through the region from north to south during the morning hours, resulting in a wind shift out of the north along with the chances for showers beginning mid-late morning and persisting into the afternoon hours. Fog (possibly dense) and low stratus will be ongoing ahead and just behind the cold front. It may take time for the drier air to work its way into the region. That said, it`s possible that MVFR-IFR conditions could continue into the afternoon hours. Overall, expect for flying conditions to deteriorate over the next couple of hours from VFR conditions to MVFR-LIFR conditions (possibly instances of VLIFR conditions) due to fog, mist, and/or low stratus. MVFR-VLIFR conditions are then expected to persist through the remainder of the 06z TAF period with showers possibly accompanying these conditions mid-late morning into the afternoon hours. Winds will be light and variable to calm tonight. In response to a cold fropa, winds will shift out of the north Sunday morning. An enhanced pressure gradient associated with the cold front will result in northerly winds becoming blustery late morning through the afternoon on Sunday with speeds between 15-20 kts and peak gusts between 25-30 kts. This could impact east-west oriented runways on Sunday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1108 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Deteriorating marine conditions is expected to take place over the next 6-12 hours as a cold front approaches the region. Along and behind the cold fropa, late Sunday morning, winds will shift out of the north and become gusty over the Laguna Madre and the Gulf Waters. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Laguna Madre and a Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf Waters through at least Sunday night. Adverse to hazardous marine conditions will linger into Monday. However, conditions will improve Monday night with low to moderate winds and seas returning and persisting through the remainder of the forecast period. Showers and thunderstorms are possible over the Gulf Waters on Sunday and again in the Tuesday through Wednesday time period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 83 67 75 54 / 10 10 50 20 HARLINGEN 85 62 72 51 / 0 10 40 10 MCALLEN 87 66 74 52 / 0 10 50 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 84 64 72 49 / 0 0 60 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 67 71 60 / 20 10 50 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 64 72 55 / 10 10 50 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Sunday for TXZ248>255-351- 353>355-451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ130-132-135. Gale Warning from 9 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ150-155- 170-175. && $$ |
