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The next few weeks are likely to remain quiet in the Atlantic basin.
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| #1233392 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 PM 06.Jun.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1224 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New Aviation... .UPDATE... Issued at 1036 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Mid to high level flow is has become diffluent over the southeast with upper ridge centered over the western Gulf and a broad trof migrating eastward off the east coast. At the surface, high pressure over the central FL Peninsula was nosing westward while a weak surface trof lingers over the southeast. Deep environmental moisture is in place over the central Gulf coast where PWATs 1.6 to 1.8". As the environment has destabilized with SBCAPES 3000 to 3500 J/KG and considering the deep layer moisture profile, forecasters are seeing the development of isolated to scattered showers mostly confined, late in the morning, to Baldwin county eastward across the western FL Peninsula. It is expected we will continue to see scattered shower/storm development through the remainder of the day and expanding over the interior as mid-level impulses caught up in the west-northwest flow aloft pass east over the region. Some of the storms could become locally strong, with brief gusty winds, frequent lightning and brief heavy downpours but the overall severe weather risk appears minimal. /10 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Now Through Saturday Night... The upper ridge over northern Mexico, south Texas, the Gulf, and portions of the Deep South will remain through the period as a series of perturbations pass over our region along the northeast periphery of the ridge. A low-level ridge will persist from the Atlantic across the Gulf, maintaining light southwesterly winds across our area. Adequate moisture will be available for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms both days as precipitable waters values hover close to 1.8 inches. Therefore, the summer diurnal pattern continues through the period. Other than some lingering showers and storms spilling over through the early- evening hours, dry weather conditions will occur during the overnight hours. A High Risk of rip currents will continue through this afternoon, followed by a Moderate risk in the forecast over the weekend. Temperatures increase as we finish off the week, with highs today and Saturday ranging from 90 to 95 degrees interior areas, around 90 degrees closer to the coast, with mid 80s at the beaches and barrier islands. The interior temps could be as high as 4 to 6 degrees above normal for this time of year. Apparent temperatures (heat indices) should range from the upper 90s to as high as 105 degrees across the entire area. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to middle 70s inland, with upper middle 70s along the coast. These temps are around 6 to 11 degrees above normal. /22 Sunday Through Thursday... A very active pattern is expected through next week as an upper- level ridge gets shunted southwestward towards the south central US/northern Mexico in response to an upper trough developing over the Great Lakes region. Although we remain in a general northwesterly to westerly flow pattern aloft, multiple embedded shortwaves are expected to push across the area throughout the period. These shortwaves, paired with deep, rich moisture in place, as well as diffluent flow in the upper- levels, will lead to multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms throughout the entire period. The timing of each individual shortwave is rather difficult to pin down this far out due to discrepancies in guidance, however, at this point we are anticipating the highest coverage of showers and storms to likely occur during the afternoon and into the evening hours each day thanks to daytime heating, with storms initially developing along the sea breeze and residual outflow boundaries from previous storms. With that being said, storms could very well persist into the overnight hours, depending on how each shortwave evolves. As we get closer and we start receiving hi-res guidance, we will be able to fine-tune timing. One thing we will also have to monitor throughout this period is the development, organization, and progression of upstream storms that develop over the Southern Plains in response to the train of shortwaves. If storms are able to strengthen and organize, would not be surprised to see one or more MCS`s move across the Deep South and potentially push into our local area, especially during the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe when the shortwaves aloft are more robust. We will keep an eye on trends over the coming days. Sunday will be our warmest day of the long term period, with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows only dropping into the low to mid 70s, with upper 70s along the coast. Temperatures next week will be a couple degrees cooler due to cloud cover and higher convective coverage. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows will range from the upper 60s inland to the mid 70s along the coast. /96 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Isolated to scattered shra/tsra anticipated through the remainder of the afternoon, generally moving easterly at around 10kts. CIGS potentially down briefly with passage of shra/tsra, otherwise bases at mid levels and VFR categories. Winds generally southwest and light. /10 && .MARINE... Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 A light to moderate southwesterly flow will persist through early next week, and there will be an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity early next week. Overall, low impactful weather is anticipated for small craft operators outside of any storms where winds and seas will be locally higher. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 75 92 75 93 73 90 73 88 / 10 20 0 50 60 70 70 80 Pensacola 78 90 79 91 77 88 77 88 / 10 40 10 50 70 70 70 70 Destin 79 90 80 90 78 88 78 88 / 20 40 20 50 70 70 70 70 Evergreen 73 94 74 93 71 89 70 88 / 10 40 10 70 70 80 70 90 Waynesboro 73 93 72 91 70 88 69 85 / 10 20 10 70 60 80 70 80 Camden 73 92 74 88 70 85 68 83 / 10 30 30 80 60 80 70 80 Crestview 73 93 74 93 72 90 72 89 / 10 50 10 70 70 80 70 90 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233391 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 PM 06.Jun.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Hot and humid conditions are expected for Deep South Texas tomorrow, as upper level ridging and southeasterly surface flow persists over the region. This poses a moderate heat risk throughout the area due to hot temperatures combined with even hotter apparent temperatures. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 90s/lower 100s, but apparent temperatures (what it actually feels like outside) could be as high as 110. Little to no precipitation is expected, along with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and southeasterly winds. Low temperatures for both tonight and tomorrow should be in the upper 70s/lower 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Hot, humid, and precipitation-free conditions are expected to continue through the weekend into early next week as upper level ridging continues and surface winds remain southeasterly. On Tuesday, a shortwave moves over the area and a frontal boundary with a surface low moves from North Texas into Central Texas, ultimately stalling over South Texas by Wednesday. This will increase chances for precipitation in Deep South Texas beginning Tuesday (around 20%), with the greatest chances (approximately 30-50%) being on Wednesday. Chances should slightly decrease to around 20-30% on Thursday and Friday, mainly east of I-69E near the coast due to sea breeze activity. Temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s/lower 100s with potential heat risk concerns through the start of next week. The frontal boundary should help lower high temperatures into the mid- 90s due to increased cloud cover and potential precipitation. However, low temperatures are expected to remain fairly consistent, getting down into the upper 70s/lower 80s each night throughout the forecast period. Winds should also remain southeasterly and generally light to moderate throughout the entire forecast period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period at all airports. Winds will be moderate and southeasterly, potentially becoming gusty after 23z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are possible over the next several days due to increased windspeeds (possibly over 15 knots) over the Gulf waters. These should gradually decrease Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, making marine conditions slightly more favorable. Wave heights should generally be between 3 and 5 feet through the duration of the forecast period, and winds are expected to remain southeasterly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 81 93 81 94 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 78 96 78 96 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 81 101 80 101 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 101 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 82 88 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 93 80 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233390 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 PM 06.Jun.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 115 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1214 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Early afternoon surface analysis depicts weak low pressure (1013 millibars) positioned near North Carolina`s Outer Banks, while Atlantic high pressure (1022 millibars) was centered near Bermuda. Otherwise, low pressure (1010 millibars) was situated along a frontal boundary over the Southern Plains states. Aloft...weakening shortwave troughing is moving off the Mid- Atlantic states, while ridging aloft that is centered over Deep South Texas was creating northwesterly flow aloft across our area. This ridge was steering a potent shortwave trough eastward across the Ozarks towards the lower Mississippi Valley. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that PWAT values have fallen to the 1.6 - 1.8 inch range, which is near or just slightly above climatology for early June. Brisk westerly low level flow has already propelled the Gulf coast sea breeze east- northeastward across the Suwannee Valley early this afternoon, with showers and a few developing low-topped thunderstorms crossing the Santa Fe River, and a few isolated showers developing near coastal St. Johns County. A blanket of stratus clouds over our region early this morning has since lifted to a healthy and towering cumulus deck, and temperatures were approaching 90 degrees already at the noon hour at most locations. Dewpoints were generally in the low to mid 70s, pushing heat index values into the mid 90s for a good portion of our area as of 16Z. Convection this afternoon will be driven by mesoscale boundary interactions, with the Gulf coast sea breeze being the primary forcing for scattered thunderstorm development during the early to mid afternoon hours across northeast and north central FL. A few storms will be pulse and possibly become strong towards mid- afternoon as convection interacts with a pinned Atlantic sea breeze boundary at area beaches. Outflow boundaries will propagate into southeast GA during the mid to late afternoon hours, touching off widely scattered convection that could linger through around sunset. Stronger storms this afternoon will be capable of producing downburst gusts of 40-50 mph, along with frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and briefly heavy downpours. Activity will mostly push offshore of the Atlantic coast by sunset, but northwesterly flow aloft could steer a few storms over inland southeast GA back towards the I-10 and I-95 corridors early this evening. Highs this afternoon will mostly climb to the 90-95 range, with maximum heat index values of 100-105. Any lingering convection early this evening will dissipate before midnight, with low level westerly flow possibly bringing another round of low stratus ceilings eastward from the FL Big Bend and Nature Coast across the Suwannee Valley during the overnight and predawn hours, with these lower cloud ceilings possibly approaching U.S. Highway 301 towards sunrise. Lows tonight will only fall to the lower 70s inland, while a light offshore breeze keeps coastal locations in the mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 215 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 High surface pressure over the area through the weekend will bring winds out of the west to southwest, helping to pull in moisture in from the Gulf. This moisture coupled with diurnal heating will help drive afternoon convection through the weekend. The Storm Prediction Center has most of southeast Georgia under a marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms and areas north of Jesup and Alma Georgia under a slight risk (2 out of 5) for severe storms Saturday as shortwaves are expected to move through the area, allowing for the development of stronger storms. The main concerns with these stronger storms will be gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall. High daytime temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows dipping into the low to mid 70s. Early morning patchy fog will be possible in areas that received rain each morning. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 215 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 High pressure and moisture from the Gulf continues into the long term, helping to keep the wet weather pattern going. Seabreeze convergence and diurnal heating will be the main driver for the afternoon convection. Some stronger storms will be possible as upper level shortwaves pulse across the area. Daytime high temperatures will be above seasonal average at the start of the week and cool to near normal by mid week with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s over southeast Georgia and low to mid 90s over northeast Florida. Overnight lows will be in the low 70s at inland locations with areas along the coast staying slightly warmer. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 115 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to pop up across northeast Florida and the southeast Georgia coast through about 8-9pm. TEMPO groups are in place at all sites other than GNV for best timing of thunderstorm impacts this afternoon when the westward moving showers interact with the east coast sea breeze. Tonight, MVFR to IFR conditions are possible at VQQ and GNV before sunrise. && .MARINE... Issued at 1214 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend its axis westward across the Florida peninsula through early next week, with this feature maintaining a prevailing offshore wind flow across our local waters. An evening wind surge on Saturday may bring speeds up to Caution levels offshore. Showers and thunderstorms will develop inland early each afternoon and will progress eastward across our local waters during the mid to late afternoon hours each day. Strong to severe storms will be possible late in the afternoon hours this weekend and early next week, especially across the Georgia waters. Stronger storms will be capable of producing briefly strong wind gusts, frequent lightning strikes and torrential downpours. A frontal boundary will stall to the northwest of our area towards midweek, with Atlantic high pressure then expected to lift northward late next week. Seas of 2 to 3 feet will prevail throughout our local waters during the next several days. Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds will likely result in a low rip current risk at area beaches through Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1214 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Breezy westerly surface and transport winds will prevail during the daylight hours each day through Sunday. These breezy winds will create good daytime dispersion values this afternoon, with pockets of marginally high values expected along the I-95 and U.S. Highway 17 corridors in northeast and north central FL. Elevated mixing heights this weekend will create areas of high daytime dispersion values. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 72 94 73 91 / 10 50 30 70 SSI 76 92 76 92 / 20 30 30 70 JAX 73 94 74 95 / 20 40 20 60 SGJ 75 94 74 95 / 20 40 20 60 GNV 73 94 73 94 / 10 30 10 60 OCF 73 94 73 92 / 0 30 10 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1233387 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:21 PM 06.Jun.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1214 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...FEW STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST... ...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY NORTH OF I-10... ...SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf .UPDATE... Issued at 1214 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Early afternoon surface analysis depicts weak low pressure (1013 millibars) positioned near North Carolina`s Outer Banks, while Atlantic high pressure (1022 millibars) was centered near Bermuda. Otherwise, low pressure (1010 millibars) was situated along a frontal boundary over the Southern Plains states. Aloft...weakening shortwave troughing is moving off the Mid- Atlantic states, while ridging aloft that is centered over Deep South Texas was creating northwesterly flow aloft across our area. This ridge was steering a potent shortwave trough eastward across the Ozarks towards the lower Mississippi Valley. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that PWAT values have fallen to the 1.6 - 1.8 inch range, which is near or just slightly above climatology for early June. Brisk westerly low level flow has already propelled the Gulf coast sea breeze east- northeastward across the Suwannee Valley early this afternoon, with showers and a few developing low-topped thunderstorms crossing the Santa Fe River, and a few isolated showers developing near coastal St. Johns County. A blanket of stratus clouds over our region early this morning has since lifted to a healthy and towering cumulus deck, and temperatures were approaching 90 degrees already at the noon hour at most locations. Dewpoints were generally in the low to mid 70s, pushing heat index values into the mid 90s for a good portion of our area as of 16Z. Convection this afternoon will be driven by mesoscale boundary interactions, with the Gulf coast sea breeze being the primary forcing for scattered thunderstorm development during the early to mid afternoon hours across northeast and north central FL. A few storms will be pulse and possibly become strong towards mid- afternoon as convection interacts with a pinned Atlantic sea breeze boundary at area beaches. Outflow boundaries will propagate into southeast GA during the mid to late afternoon hours, touching off widely scattered convection that could linger through around sunset. Stronger storms this afternoon will be capable of producing downburst gusts of 40-50 mph, along with frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and briefly heavy downpours. Activity will mostly push offshore of the Atlantic coast by sunset, but northwesterly flow aloft could steer a few storms over inland southeast GA back towards the I-10 and I-95 corridors early this evening. Highs this afternoon will mostly climb to the 90-95 range, with maximum heat index values of 100-105. Any lingering convection early this evening will dissipate before midnight, with low level westerly flow possibly bringing another round of low stratus ceilings eastward from the FL Big Bend and Nature Coast across the Suwannee Valley during the overnight and predawn hours, with these lower cloud ceilings possibly approaching U.S. Highway 301 towards sunrise. Lows tonight will only fall to the lower 70s inland, while a light offshore breeze keeps coastal locations in the mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 215 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 High surface pressure over the area through the weekend will bring winds out of the west to southwest, helping to pull in moisture in from the Gulf. This moisture coupled with diurnal heating will help drive afternoon convection through the weekend. The Storm Prediction Center has most of southeast Georgia under a marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms and areas north of Jesup and Alma Georgia under a slight risk (2 out of 5) for severe storms Saturday as shortwaves are expected to move through the area, allowing for the development of stronger storms. The main concerns with these stronger storms will be gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall. High daytime temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows dipping into the low to mid 70s. Early morning patchy fog will be possible in areas that received rain each morning. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 215 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 High pressure and moisture from the Gulf continues into the long term, helping to keep the wet weather pattern going. Seabreeze convergence and diurnal heating will be the main driver for the afternoon convection. Some stronger storms will be possible as upper level shortwaves pulse across the area. Daytime high temperatures will be above seasonal average at the start of the week and cool to near normal by mid week with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s over southeast Georgia and low to mid 90s over northeast Florida. Overnight lows will be in the low 70s at inland locations with areas along the coast staying slightly warmer. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 837 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Low stratus ceilings and IFR conditions will prevail at JAX and CRG terminals through around 14Z. Confidence is currently only high enough to include scattered ceilings at SSI, but a brief period of IFR conditions may develop after 13Z. Low stratus ceilings are expected to lift and dissipate towards 15Z. Showers and thunderstorms will then develop towards the noon hour along an inland moving Gulf coast sea breeze over the Suwannee Valley, with this convection then progressing quickly east-northeastward, potentially reaching GNV shortly after 16Z and then impacting the rest of the terminals through the mid to late afternoon hours. We maintained TEMPO groups for MVFR conditions during heavier downpours and briefly gusty winds at each terminal this afternoon through around sunset. VFR conditions should then prevail after 02Z as convection shifts offshore. Another round of low stratus ceilings and fog expected to spread inland from the FL Big Bend and Nature Coast overnight and across the Suwannee Valley during the predawn hours, with potential impacts to GNV and VQQ before sunrise on Saturday. Confidence was high enough to indicate periods of IFR to LIFR conditions at VQQ after 07Z, while confidence was only high enough to include prevailing MVFR conditions at GNV towards 10Z. West or west- southwesterly surface winds will strengthen to 10-15 knots at the regional terminals towards noon. The Atlantic sea breeze boundary will remain pinned to the east of I-95 this afternoon, with surface winds shifting to southerly at SGJ and SSI towards 19Z. Southwesterly surface winds will resume once convection moves offshore, with speeds remaining sustained around 5 knots overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1214 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend its axis westward across the Florida peninsula through early next week, with this feature maintaining a prevailing offshore wind flow across our local waters. An evening wind surge on Saturday may bring speeds up to Caution levels offshore. Showers and thunderstorms will develop inland early each afternoon and will progress eastward across our local waters during the mid to late afternoon hours each day. Strong to severe storms will be possible late in the afternoon hours this weekend and early next week, especially across the Georgia waters. Stronger storms will be capable of producing briefly strong wind gusts, frequent lightning strikes and torrential downpours. A frontal boundary will stall to the northwest of our area towards midweek, with Atlantic high pressure then expected to lift northward late next week. Seas of 2 to 3 feet will prevail throughout our local waters during the next several days. Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds will likely result in a low rip current risk at area beaches through Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1214 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Breezy westerly surface and transport winds will prevail during the daylight hours each day through Sunday. These breezy winds will create good daytime dispersion values this afternoon, with pockets of marginally high values expected along the I-95 and U.S. Highway 17 corridors in northeast and north central FL. Elevated mixing heights this weekend will create areas of high daytime dispersion values. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 72 94 73 91 / 10 50 30 70 SSI 76 92 76 92 / 20 30 30 70 JAX 73 94 74 95 / 20 40 20 60 SGJ 75 94 74 95 / 20 40 20 60 GNV 73 94 73 94 / 10 30 10 60 OCF 73 94 73 92 / 0 30 10 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1233386 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:06 PM 06.Jun.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1051 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New Update... .UPDATE... Issued at 1036 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Mid to high level flow is has become diffluent over the southeast with upper ridge centered over the western Gulf and a broad trof migrating eastward off the east coast. At the surface, high pressure over the central FL Peninsula was nosing westward while a weak surface trof lingers over the southeast. Deep environmental moisture is in place over the central Gulf coast where PWATs 1.6 to 1.8". As the environment has destabilized with SBCAPES 3000 to 3500 J/KG and considering the deep layer moisture profile, forecasters are seeing the development of isolated to scattered showers mostly confined, late in the morning, to Baldwin county eastward across the western FL Peninsula. It is expected we will continue to see scattered shower/storm development through the remainder of the day and expanding over the interior as mid-level impulses caught up in the west-northwest flow aloft pass east over the region. Some of the storms could become locally strong, with brief gusty winds, frequent lightning and brief heavy downpours but the overall severe weather risk appears minimal. /10 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Now Through Saturday Night... The upper ridge over northern Mexico, south Texas, the Gulf, and portions of the Deep South will remain through the period as a series of perturbations pass over our region along the northeast periphery of the ridge. A low-level ridge will persist from the Atlantic across the Gulf, maintaining light southwesterly winds across our area. Adequate moisture will be available for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms both days as precipitable waters values hover close to 1.8 inches. Therefore, the summer diurnal pattern continues through the period. Other than some lingering showers and storms spilling over through the early- evening hours, dry weather conditions will occur during the overnight hours. A High Risk of rip currents will continue through this afternoon, followed by a Moderate risk in the forecast over the weekend. Temperatures increase as we finish off the week, with highs today and Saturday ranging from 90 to 95 degrees interior areas, around 90 degrees closer to the coast, with mid 80s at the beaches and barrier islands. The interior temps could be as high as 4 to 6 degrees above normal for this time of year. Apparent temperatures (heat indices) should range from the upper 90s to as high as 105 degrees across the entire area. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to middle 70s inland, with upper middle 70s along the coast. These temps are around 6 to 11 degrees above normal. /22 Sunday Through Thursday... A very active pattern is expected through next week as an upper- level ridge gets shunted southwestward towards the south central US/northern Mexico in response to an upper trough developing over the Great Lakes region. Although we remain in a general northwesterly to westerly flow pattern aloft, multiple embedded shortwaves are expected to push across the area throughout the period. These shortwaves, paired with deep, rich moisture in place, as well as diffluent flow in the upper- levels, will lead to multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms throughout the entire period. The timing of each individual shortwave is rather difficult to pin down this far out due to discrepancies in guidance, however, at this point we are anticipating the highest coverage of showers and storms to likely occur during the afternoon and into the evening hours each day thanks to daytime heating, with storms initially developing along the sea breeze and residual outflow boundaries from previous storms. With that being said, storms could very well persist into the overnight hours, depending on how each shortwave evolves. As we get closer and we start receiving hi-res guidance, we will be able to fine-tune timing. One thing we will also have to monitor throughout this period is the development, organization, and progression of upstream storms that develop over the Southern Plains in response to the train of shortwaves. If storms are able to strengthen and organize, would not be surprised to see one or more MCS`s move across the Deep South and potentially push into our local area, especially during the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe when the shortwaves aloft are more robust. We will keep an eye on trends over the coming days. Sunday will be our warmest day of the long term period, with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows only dropping into the low to mid 70s, with upper 70s along the coast. Temperatures next week will be a couple degrees cooler due to cloud cover and higher convective coverage. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows will range from the upper 60s inland to the mid 70s along the coast. /96 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through 12z Saturday, along with light mainly southwesterly winds. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 A light to moderate southwesterly flow will persist through early next week, and there will be an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity early next week. Overall, low impactful weather is anticipated for small craft operators outside of any storms where winds and seas will be locally higher. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 75 92 75 91 74 89 72 88 / 10 20 10 50 50 70 60 70 Pensacola 78 91 79 90 77 87 76 88 / 20 20 10 50 60 70 60 80 Destin 78 90 80 89 78 87 77 87 / 10 30 20 50 70 70 70 80 Evergreen 72 94 73 92 72 88 71 88 / 20 30 20 60 50 80 60 80 Waynesboro 73 94 74 92 71 88 68 88 / 10 20 20 60 40 80 60 80 Camden 72 92 74 89 71 86 69 86 / 30 40 20 60 50 80 60 80 Crestview 72 94 73 92 73 90 71 89 / 20 40 10 60 60 80 60 80 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233385 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:00 PM 06.Jun.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1155 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Active weather pattern continues as multiple frontal boundaries and disturbances impact the region. A few storms may become strong to severe severe this weekend, with damaging winds expected to be the primary hazard. A brief reprieve in heat then returns early next week in the wake of a strong cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today through Early Evening: A more typical summertime environment will occur across the region today as subtropical ridging centered southern Texas builds east across the Deep South. Sfc winds will remain somewhat westerly in the wake of low pressure exiting the Outer Banks for a bulk of the day, especially away from coastal areas, while a west-northwest downslope wind occurs aloft. Modified RAP soundings do show modest to locally strong mixed-layer instability developing during the afternoon (MLCAPE values 2000-2500 J/kg) as temps warm to near 90, but the mean lower tropospheric flow is forecast to remain westerly for much of the day, only backing at the sfc closer to the coast during the late afternoon as a pinned sea breeze circulation tries to form. This will limit low-lvl convergence at first with convection being mostly driven by strong sfc heating. Once isolated showers/thunderstorms develop, there is a potential for additional convection due to outflow and/or sea breeze interactions. However, hires guidance is not particularly suggestive for convection along the sea breeze. 850 hPa theta-e values look highest in a west-east oriented ribbon south of I-16 and this is where the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms are expected to occur. Pops 20-40% remain highlighted this afternoon into early this evening, highest south of I-16. Convection will diminish/wane quickly this evening with the onset of nocturnal stabilization. The mid-lvls have dried out considerably since yesterday, with soundings also supporting DCAPE values around 1000 J/kg mid-late afternoon. This could support an isolated severe thunderstorm or two with damaging winds and cloud-to-ground lightning being the primary hazards. Some small hail could also develop with WBZ heights just below 12 kft, but the strong sfc heating will tend to melt hail as it falls and likely keep it smaller than 1 inch. Weak 0-6 km bulk shear suggests any strong/severe thunderstorm to be pulse type in nature with possibly some brief, transient organization occurring at times when updrafts become enhanced at locations where convective outflows collide. Overnight: Dry conditions will prevail. There are indications that a cluster of showers/tstms with origins from northern Georgia could make a run for far interior Southeast Georgia after midnight. Most of this activity should dissipate prior to reaching this far east and southeast, but this will have to watched closely. For now, no mentionable pops were included for the overnight period. It will be rather warm for early June with lows only dropping into the lower 70s well inland to around 80 at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. These lows could challenge the record high minimums for 7 June, especially at the Charleston Intl Airport (KCHS) and Downtown Charleston/Waterfront Park (KCXM). See the climate section below for additional information. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Balmy conditions will prevail this weekend, as afternoon highs rise into the lower 90s in combination with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. As a result, expect heat indices to rise into the upper 90s to lower 100s, the warmest along and east of I-95. While not uncommon for this of year, still encourage everyone to remain hydrated and take breaks or rest in the shade as needed. Given the moist environment and diurnal heating expected to take place, can`t rule out seeing afternoon/evening showers and storms. In regard to the severe potential, latest soundings for Saturday do show ample CAPE (~1000 to 2000 J/kg), 0-6km bulk shear around 25 to 30 kt, and DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg. Lapse rates remain rather meager though, with values around 6 - 7 degC/km in the low to mid levels. Thus, with these values in place, could certainly see a few storms capable of producing damaging gusts. Main caveat to this is timing. Latest CAMs show a MCS progged to push across the TN Valley Saturday evening, perhaps reaching our area near/after 00z. Not entirely confident if this system will be able to sustain itself, as some guidance hints that it will fizzle out before reaching our area. In the event that it does reach us, this would place the main line of storms in an environment with weakening instability/shear as the diurnal heat source wanes. Dependent on how things pan out, could see some lingering convection by daybreak Sunday. This would put a slight damper on additional development later that afternoon as the atmosphere works to stabilize itself. However, if the MCS fizzles out before reaching us Saturday night, think the better chance for seeing severe weather would occur Sunday afternoon/evening as a similar environment unfolds. Otherwise, look for upper level troughing across the Ohio River Valley to deepen Monday as an upper level low build over the Great Lakes region. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Expect the aforementioned upper level trough to push eastward Monday night into Tuesday, bringing with it renewed chances for precipitation. Afternoon highs will also be somewhat "cooler" in the wake of its associated sfc cold front. Currently have temperatures warming into the upper 80s to lower 90s for the remainder of the extended period. A typical diurnal summertime pattern of scattered afternoon showers and storms will also continue during this time as the seabreeze pushes inland. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 06/12z Aviation Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Low clouds at KCHS and KJZI will mix out quickly as sunset approaches. Isolated to scattered showers/tstms are expected to form as early as late morning and continuing into the afternoon hours. Coverage looks greatest over Southeast Georgia, but much of this may stay south of KSAV. For now, VCTS was highlighted 17-20z. For KCHS and KJZI, coverage looks to remain a bit more isolated so impact probabilities look too low to justly a mention at this time. Extended Aviation Outlook: Typical summertime convection will bring periodic flight restrictions through Monday. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: West winds will back to the southwest this afternoon as pinned sea breeze develops along the beaches. Some slight surging near the sea breeze along the land/sea interface and in Charleston Harbor could occur late, but winds should go no higher than 20 kt. Otherwise, winds will average 10-15 kt with seas subsiding to 2-3 ft. Tonight, southwest winds 10-15 kt will prevail with seas 2-3 ft. Saturday through Monday: Expect west south-westerly winds to prevail throughout the period, with sustained speeds between 10 to 20 kt. Winds could become a bit breezy at times, especially over the weekend, with gusts up to 25 kt possible as the sea breeze moves inland. While SCA are not expected at this time, will continue to monitor the Charleston County coastal waters, including the Charleston Harbor in the event that guidance increases or actual winds over perform. Otherwise, look for seas to range between 2 to 4 ft throughout the period. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 7: KCHS: 75/2021 KCXM: 79/2021 June 8: KCHS: 76/1980 KCXM: 78/2021 KSAV: 79/1881 June 9: KCHS: 77/1978 KSAV: 77/1877 June 11: KCHS: 76/2020 KSAV: 76/2010 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1233384 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:30 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1025 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1022 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Several showers have developed along a boundary draped from near Tifton down to near Miramar Beach. Have increased POPs along this corridor to match ongoing conditions. Other than minor temperature tweaks, the ongoing forecast remains on track with showers and storms likely to continue into the afternoon as the seabreeze pushes inland. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Another round of diurnally driven thunderstorm activity is expected across the area. With the upper level low out of the region, and the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge building in, coverage should be a little less widespread today compared to previous days. Low-level flow will also be light and out of the west today so much of the activity will generally form within the vicinity and ahead of the seabreeze and gradually push inland through the day. Warmer temperatures will allow greater instability to develop and the presence of slightly drier air aloft could allow stronger wind gusts in storms this afternoon so a brief severe storm can`t be ruled out. This threat would be greatest along any favorable storm mergers and/or outflow boundaries that allow storms to gain considerable depth. Activity winds down after sunset tonight and only concerns through the overnight would be patchy fog. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Heading into this weekend, upper level ridging centered across Mexico and the western Gulf will keep us in westerly flow aloft. A few shortwaves embedded in the westerly flow will move just north of us, but remain close enough to keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for both Saturday and Sunday. Timing looks to be fairly typical for summer with the chance starting in the morning hours near the coast, then spreading inland through the afternoon. This is not expected to be a washout all day, but thunderstorm activity is expected to be scattered around the area, typical of summer. High temperatures are expected to generally range from the upper 80s to near 90 along the coast to the lower to middle 90s inland. Overnight lows are expected to be mostly in the lower to middle 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Thursday) Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Heading into early next week, an upper level trough is expected to dive into the Great Lakes region with the local area near the base of the trough. This will keep westerly flow aloft and a series of shortwaves sufficient to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. A weak surface boundary is expected to push southward into the northern portions of our area Sunday night into Monday morning, providing an additional focus for showers and thunderstorms that could last deeper into the overnight on Sunday night than is typical for summer. Deep layer shear is actually fairly impressive for early June standards at around 30 knots, which is near the 90th percentile. We`ll need to keep an eye on the potential for a cluster of strong to severe storms to organize Sunday evening into Monday morning with gusty winds, particularly across our northern counties. A repeat performance looks possible Monday evening into Tuesday morning as well. For the remainder of the week, the weak boundary will not make it through the area given that it`s early June now, and we`ll see a continued muggy environment with precipitable water values in the 1.7 to 2 inch range, which is above average for early June. The upper level trough over the Great Lakes will shift eastward, but we`ll continue with light westerly to southwesterly flow aloft locally, and coupled with the above average moisture, shower and thunderstorm chances will remain elevated through the week. The NBM PoPs of 80-90 percent every day may be a bit overdone, but the overall theme of daily scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms looks reasonable. Temperatures are expected to be within a few degrees of average for early June, generally lower 90s for highs and low to mid 70s for lows. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 During the early morning hours, low ceilings to MVFR/IFR are possible with some localized LIFR conditions possible. Any restrictions should should lift to VFR by mid/late morning. During the afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop along the seabreeze and across inland areas through the day with most activity generally winding down after 00z. && .MARINE... Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Surface high pressure in the Atlantic will maintain a light to moderate southerly to southwesterly breeze the next several days. Seas will generally run between 2 to 3 feet. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast for the next several days. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Rain chances will be a touch lower today and have a more diurnal trend compared to recent days where activity got an earlier start. Relatively high minimum afternoon humidities and light winds will keep fire weather concerns mostly low the next few days. Only concerns through the next few days will be dispersions on the higher side and gusty/erratic winds in the vicinity of any thunderstorm activity. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 There are no significant changes from the previous forecast. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances remain through the weekend into early next week. Locally heavy rain is possible within any of those showers or storms thanks to precipitable water values (PWATs) between 1.7" to 2.0", or near the 90th percentile for early-mid June. 3hr Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) remains between 2.5" to 3.5" in the more urban areas and 3" to 5.5" in our more rural locations. These values are forecast to decrease the next few days thanks to those daily rain chances. Nuisance flooding of urban and poor drainage areas are the biggest concern, especially as we see the soil continue to moisten with each round of showers and storms. Fortunately, area rivers and streams remain in good shape with gradual rises possible as more and more rain falls across the region. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 89 74 92 74 / 60 30 70 20 Panama City 88 77 89 78 / 50 10 50 20 Dothan 91 73 93 74 / 50 20 50 20 Albany 90 73 93 74 / 40 20 50 20 Valdosta 90 73 93 74 / 60 30 60 20 Cross City 90 72 91 73 / 50 10 50 20 Apalachicola 87 76 87 78 / 50 10 50 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ108-112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233383 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:15 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 958 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 837 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Observations from the 12Z KKEY sounding illustrate what individuals across the Florida Keys can confirm, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) continues to be the dominant feature over the CWA. Observations from the KBYX radar do not indicate rainfall across the waters of the Florida Keys at this time, and cloud cover seen by GOES-East is limited to high altitude debris cloud. Weather for the rest of the day will be rather uneventful thanks to slowly slackening winds and the SAL inhibiting shower formation. Temperatures across the Keys are on track to reach near 90 F highs with dew points lingering in the mid to upper 70s. Conditions outside will stay muggy, for better or worse. Ordinarily the dissipating cirrus aloft would indicate near perfect conditions for stargazing tonight, but the SAL will prevent great observations. Either way, enjoy a (most likely) quiet weekend across the Keys! && .MARINE... Issued at 337 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, Saharan dust will continue to linger in the air, and will promote lower rain and thunder chances over the next several days. High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coastline will continue to move eastward and merge with a stronger high centered near the Azores. This will encourage an extended period of light to gentle east to southeast breezes. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 837 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Prevailing VFR conditions will be observed at both EYW and MTH for the 12Z TAF period. Occasional MVFR CIGs are possible, but intermittent and short lived enough to not require a TEMPO. Near surface east southeasterlies will slowly slacken from 10 to 15 knots to near 10 tomorrow morning. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys weather history, the daily record high temperature of 96F was recorded in Key West set back in 1881. This is also the warmest temperature ever recorded in June. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1873. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 89 82 89 82 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 89 81 89 81 / 10 10 20 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233382 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:48 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 931 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will push offshore today. A cold front will move through ENC this weekend. Unsettled weather will continue through much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 930AM Friday...Fairly widespread cloudcover remains over much of ENC this morning outside of portions of the OBX where sunny skies are currently observed. However, will note these pockets of sunshine will be short lived as cloud cover builds in from the north and west as mid level moisture builds in over the area. Forecast generally remains on track for today with a low end chance at some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity later this afternoon generally along the seabreeze while temps gradually warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s. The trend for today has been drier with only isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms expected. Along the immediate coast, PoPs will decrease over the next few hours as the low moves offshore. This afternoon, a shortwave will move across the area and the seabreeze will become pinned near the coast as surface winds veer from southwest to northwest. This should prohibit showers and thunderstorms from making it to the inner coastal plain, keeping the corridor of highest PoPs east of Highway 17 and west of the Outer Banks. Coastal plain high temps will be about 10 degrees warmer today (mid- to upper-80s) while areas along the coast will be about the same as yesterday (near 80). These temps, paired with dews in the low-70s, will build instability and generate 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Convective activity is expected to be isolated to widely scattered at best, but a few stronger thunderstorms along the seabreeze remain possible. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 3:45 AM Friday...PoPs will decrease as the seabreeze fizzles this evening. As we head into the overnight hours, a mid-level shortwave will approach the area. This boundary will increase cloud cover through the night, keeping lows mild near 70. PoPs will gradually increase at the end of the period ahead of a potentially potent system progged to impact ENC on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 4 AM Friday... Key Messages: - Strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening and again Sunday afternoon and evening. - Unsettled weather will continue through much of the rest of the long term. A mid level shortwave and sfc cold front approach the area Saturday bringing a threat of showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast. Could see some strong to potentially severe storms late Saturday and Saturday evening with moderate instability (SBCAPE values peak around 2000-2500+ J/Kg) and 0-6k bulk shear around 30-35 kt. PW values remain around 1.75-2" and the thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall as well. Similar environmental conditions persist into Sunday with another shortwave trough pushing across the region bringing another round of strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours. SPC has the region in a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms both Saturday and Sunday with damaging wind gusts the primary threat. Saturday looks to be the warmest day of the long term with highs in the low 90s inland and mid to upper 80s along the coast. Continued warm on Sunday with temps a couple of degrees cooler than Saturday. An upper low digs into the Great Lakes early next week with cyclonic flow developing across the region and a series of shortwave troughs advecting through the flow aloft keeping unsettled weather in the forecast for the rest of the long term. The airmass remains conditionally unstable with modest shear most days and could see a few strong storms, especially during peak heating. Persistent SW flow aloft will bring a descent tropical moisture feed into the region with PW values around 1.75-2", which is above the 90th percentile for this time of year, keeping a threat of heavy rainfall each day. Temps look to be near to a few degrees above normal early to middle of next week. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 7:30 AM Friday...The TAF sites are currently a mixed bag of flight cats ranging from VFR to LIFR with low CIGs and fog across the CWA. VIS have been improving and should return to VFR status within the next hour. CIGs, on the other hand, may take until late this morning to return to VFR. Clouds will gradually lift and dissipate through the day with only high clouds lingering through early tonight. After midnight, cloud cover will start to increase again ahead of an approaching shortwave. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 415 AM Friday...An unsettled pattern will prevail through much of the long term keeping periods of showers and thunderstorms bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions across the region. There will also be the threat for late night/early morning fog each day as well. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/... As of 3:50 AM Friday...Great boating conditions are expected through the short term with sub-SCA winds and seas across all waters. South of Cape Hatteras, 10-15 kt winds will remain southwesterly. North of Cape Hatteras and closer to the surface low, 10-15 kt winds will be more variable. These waters will start out with south-southeasterly winds this morning, become northwesterly by tonight, and southwesterly by tomorrow morning. Seas will generally be 3-5 ft. LONG TERM /Saturday though Tuesday/... As of 415 AM Friday... A front approaches the waters Saturday but stalls inland from the coast before lifting to the north. SW winds around 10-20 kt expected to prevail through Monday with strongest winds during afternoon and evening hours when the diurnal thermal gradient is the tightest. Another cold front approached from the NW on Tuesday serving to tighten the gradient a bit more and could see low end SCA conditions develop, especially across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas generally around 3-5 ft through the long term with up to 6 ft seas across the southern/central waters on Tuesday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1233381 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:18 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 909 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... After a one day break from widespread thunderstorm activity today, the weather will turn quite unsettled for at least the next several days if not more. This the result of a series of upper level disturbances combined with sfc boundaries moving across the area while using the hot and humid conditions to their advantage. && .UPDATE... No major changes to the ongoing forecast with this update. Mostly cloudy skies will gradually scatter out to become mostly sunny by late this afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Low pressure should be just to our NE with westerly flow around it drying out inland but with some low level moisture lingering at the coast. Isolated showers with a possible rumble of thunder could pop up at the coast and along the sea breeze this afternoon. The main issue for the period will be how long clouds hold on during the day as they should start clearing out late this afternoon from SW to NE. How long they stick around will impact high temperatures for SE NC. NE SC should reach near 90 away from the coast but the lingering clouds should may SE NC fall shy of this, in the mid to upper 80s. Should clouds clear out quickly, highs will rise closer to 90. Increasing mid to high level clouds overnight should warm lows a bit, with low temps in the lower 70s with extensive radiational cooling not expected. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Upper s/w trof within westerly flow aloft to pass just north of the FA early Sat. Will see clouds and possible morning isolated convection with a sfc trof along the I-95 corridor. The next embedded upper s/w trof to affect the FA Sat aftn and evening. POPs will climb to high chance to likely as the s/w trof interacts with a sfc boundary dropping to the FA. SPC has the entire ILM CWA within a SLGT Risk (2 of 5) for severe tstorms with kinematic/dynamic reasoning in their discussion. Looking at damaging wind gusts and possibly hail the primary severe threats. Sat max temps will break into the 90-95 degree range away from the beaches with a healthy sea breeze likely with an inland progression limited given the decent westerly flow aloft. Min temps Sat night, widespread 70s. Sun thru Sun night, longwave amplified upper trof to become better organized as it sets up shop across the eastern 1/2 to 1/3rd of the U.S. Embedded s/w trofs will pivot around/thru the upper trof, pushing across the FA Sun aftn and night. 90 degree readings for Sun max temps look aok once again. Sfc boundary to drop down and replace the 1 across portions of the FA. POPs will be slightly hier Sun over Sat given the more direct impacts from the embedded s/w trofs. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Under the influence of the Eastern U.S. amplified longwave upper trof Mon thru Wed with embedded s/w trofs pivoting thru it. Sfc boundaries to persist across portions of the FA and with ample moisture and June insolation thrown into the mix, look for diurnal scattered to numerous shower/thunderstorm activity each day. Convection activity may persist well into the night provided dynamics from any of these embedded s/w trofs pushing across the FA. The upper longwave trof to finally progress downstream away from the FA during the latter half of the week. This will enable a cold front to push across and possibly south of the FA. If this occurs, look for a drying out period as an upper ridge axis tries to become established across the SE States. Thu/Fri POPs will drop back to isolated to low chance. Temps the 1st half of the work-week to run at or slightly above climo, the end week will end with at or just below normal temps. && .AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR/IFR should clear out within the next several hours. The coastal terminals have cleared out but there`s low clouds behind this that should make it there within the TAF period starting. After clearing there will be some BKN to SCT mid-level clouds that will linger through the afternoon, and some isolated showers and storms possible. There will be a weak sea breeze at the coast with winds going from W to S. VFR should return with increasing high clouds tonight, light SW winds becoming predominant. Extended Outlook...Brief restrictions possible in afternoon/evening thunderstorms Saturday through Tuesday, along with a chance of overnight/morning fog and stratus Saturday night and Sunday night. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...West winds will become SW in the afternoon with the sea breeze, speeds 10-15 kts through tonight. Seas will be largely 3 ft with a 3 ft SW swell at 5-6 seconds and a 1-2 ft E swell at 8-9 seconds. Some isolated showers and storms are possible in the afternoon and evening. Saturday through Tuesday...Southwest winds to dominate the extended wind forecast. Persistent Sfc trof inland and well offshore centered high pressure off the SE States Coast will be the mainstays Sat into Wed. Sfc boundaries dropping down from the NW-N will likely remain just north of the local waters this period. The sfc pg will yield wind speeds in the 10-15 kt or around 15 kt range with g20+ kt possible especially Sat aftn and night. The daily sea breeze will affect the waters nearshore, within 10 nm of the coast, with winds temporarily becoming southerly in direction and could produce 25 kt wind gusts depending on the strength of the sea breeze3 which should be strongest Sat. Convection to be more common Sat thru Tue, abating-some by Wed. Seas generally in the 2 to 4 ft range with a few days in the 3 to 5 ft range, especially the waters Cape Fear to Murrells inlet with the better Southwesterly fetch. Short period, 3 to 6 second period wind driven waves to dominate. With an underlying small SE-SSE 8+ second period swell remaining present and accounted for. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1233379 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:54 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 837 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 837 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Low stratus ceilings and IFR conditions will prevail at JAX and CRG terminals through around 14Z. Confidence is currently only high enough to include scattered ceilings at SSI, but a brief period of IFR conditions may develop after 13Z. Low stratus ceilings are expected to lift and dissipate towards 15Z. Showers and thunderstorms will then develop towards the noon hour along an inland moving Gulf coast sea breeze over the Suwannee Valley, with this convection then progressing quickly east-northeastward, potentially reaching GNV shortly after 16Z and then impacting the rest of the terminals through the mid to late afternoon hours. We maintained TEMPO groups for MVFR conditions during heavier downpours and briefly gusty winds at each terminal this afternoon through around sunset. VFR conditions should then prevail after 02Z as convection shifts offshore. Another round of low stratus ceilings and fog expected to spread inland from the FL Big Bend and Nature Coast overnight and across the Suwannee Valley during the predawn hours, with potential impacts to GNV and VQQ before sunrise on Saturday. Confidence was high enough to indicate periods of IFR to LIFR conditions at VQQ after 07Z, while confidence was only high enough to include prevailing MVFR conditions at GNV towards 10Z. West or west- southwesterly surface winds will strengthen to 10-15 knots at the regional terminals towards noon. The Atlantic sea breeze boundary will remain pinned to the east of I-95 this afternoon, with surface winds shifting to southerly at SGJ and SSI towards 19Z. Southwesterly surface winds will resume once convection moves offshore, with speeds remaining sustained around 5 knots overnight. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 215 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Westerly steering flow and with a moist atmosphere (PWATs in the 1.6" to 1.9" range) will continue scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms across the region as the East Coast sea breeze remains pinned fairly close to the Atlantic Coast to the East of the I-95 corridor. Max temps will push into the lower 90s area wide as the westerly flow pushes the heat all the way to the Atlantic Beaches along the peak heat indices around 100F. Scattered strong to locally severe storms still possible during the afternoon hours with gusty winds and heavy rainfall, but slightly warmer temps aloft should limit any widespread severe weather threat. Best chances for any severe storms will be when convection interacts with the East Coast sea breeze front stalled near the Atlantic Coast and I-95 corridor. Convection will fade with loss of heating just after sunset this evening with fair skies overnight along with mild temps in the lower 70s inland and mid/upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 215 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 High surface pressure over the area through the weekend will bring winds out of the west to southwest, helping to pull in moisture in from the Gulf. This moisture coupled with diurnal heating will help drive afternoon convection through the weekend. The Storm Prediction Center has most of southeast Georgia under a marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms and areas north of Jesup and Alma Georgia under a slight risk (2 out of 5) for severe storms Saturday as shortwaves are expected to move through the area, allowing for the development of stronger storms. The main concerns with these stronger storms will be gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall. High daytime temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows dipping into the low to mid 70s. Early morning patchy fog will be possible in areas that received rain each morning. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 215 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 High pressure and moisture from the Gulf continues into the long term, helping to keep the wet weather pattern going. Seabreeze convergence and diurnal heating will be the main driver for the afternoon convection. Some stronger storms will be possible as upper level shortwaves pulse across the area. Daytime high temperatures will be above seasonal average at the start of the week and cool to near normal by mid week with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s over southeast Georgia and low to mid 90s over northeast Florida. Overnight lows will be in the low 70s at inland locations with areas along the coast staying slightly warmer. && .MARINE... Issued at 215 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Weak low pressure situated over the Carolinas today will push off the North Carolina Outer Banks tonight. Atlantic high pressure ridge will be extended across the Florida peninsula for the next several days. Prevailing southwesterly winds are expected through the weekend. Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will push eastward across our region through the weekend, mostly during the afternoon and evening hours. Strong to severe storms will be possible this weekend and early next week, mainly across the Georgia waters. Small Craft Advisory headlines are not expected this weekend or early next week. Rip Currents: Generally low risk of rips expected today into the weekend as offshore flow will keep the East Coast sea breeze weak during the afternoon hours and surf/breakers in the 1-2 ft range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 90 72 92 73 / 40 10 50 30 SSI 88 76 92 76 / 40 20 50 30 JAX 92 73 94 74 / 40 20 50 20 SGJ 91 73 94 74 / 50 20 60 20 GNV 92 72 94 73 / 40 10 60 10 OCF 92 72 93 73 / 30 0 50 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1233378 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:15 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 811 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Remnant mid level moisture convergent boundary remains across west central Florida...and combined with weak onshore flow may allow a few showers to develop over the coastal waters during the next couple of hours which could advect locally onshore around sunrise. Any showers that manage to push onshore will likely dissipate rather quickly as they push inland. The remainder of today, high pressure surface and aloft will build over the region. However, the main phenomena to impact sensible weather today and through the weekend will be a SAL that will be move over the region. This will advect much drier air aloft over the forecast area which will significantly inhibit convection each day through the weekend. POPs will likely run significantly below NBM guidance with only slight chance to low end chance pops each day. Also, increased the max temps a degree or two each day as the NBM high pops/cloud cover likely held temps down a bit. Could even be a bit conservative with max temps as they could be even a bit warmer than currently forecast should the dry air aloft mix down during the afternoon hours...with this most likely happening on Saturday and Sunday. Early next week, the SAL will begin to give way on Monday with deep layer moisture gradually recovering. The surface ridge axis will remain well south of the forecast area with onshore west to southwest boundary layer flow. This will allow the west coast sea breeze boundary to push inland rather quickly...with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing over the coastal counties during the morning/early afternoon hours, pushing inland and increasing slightly in areal coverage over the interior during the mid/late afternoon. The surface ridge axis will begin to lift north across the central Florida peninsula on Tuesday. This will likely cause the west/east coast sea breeze boundaries to collide over the interior during the late afternoon with showers/thunderstorms being enhanced along the boundary collision/highest pops. On Wednesday, the surface ridge axis will continue to lift north with southeast boundary layer flow developing across west central and southwest Florida. This will aid in holding the west coast sea breeze boundary closer to the coast...with the east coast sea breeze colliding with the west coast sea breeze during the late afternoon enhancing shower/thunderstorm activity over the coastal counties late in the day. Although deep layer moisture will increase, trend below NBM POPs all of next week as overall moisture profiles suggest generally climo pops area wide. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 808 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Saharan dust will help to limit some convection this afternoon and evening but still highlighted a 2 to 4 hour window in each TAF location where storms will be most likely. Winds will remain out of the west and southwest today generally below 12 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 High pressure will hold over the waters through the period with winds below cautionary levels each day. Main hazard through the weekend will be isolated to scattered mainly late night/early morning showers and thunderstorms. Next week, timing of shower/thunderstorm activity will shift to the evening hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels for the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 79 92 79 / 30 10 20 10 FMY 94 76 94 76 / 30 10 20 10 GIF 94 75 95 75 / 30 10 20 10 SRQ 91 77 90 77 / 20 10 20 10 BKV 93 71 93 72 / 30 10 20 10 SPG 89 78 89 79 / 30 10 20 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1233377 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:03 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 744 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will push offshore today. A cold front will move through ENC this weekend. Unsettled weather will continue through much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 7:40 AM Friday...The surface low is currently sitting over the northeastern corner of the CWA and will continue progressing northeastwards through the morning. Remaining fog should burn off within the next hour or so. The trend for today has been drier with only isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms expected. Along the immediate coast, PoPs will decrease over the next few hours as the low moves offshore. This afternoon, a shortwave will move across the area and the seabreeze will become pinned near the coast as surface winds veer from southwest to northwest. This should prohibit showers and thunderstorms from making it to the inner coastal plain, keeping the corridor of highest PoPs east of Highway 17 and west of the Outer Banks. Coastal plain high temps will be about 10 degrees warmer today (mid- to upper-80s) while areas along the coast will be about the same as yesterday (near 80). These temps, paired with dews in the low-70s, will build instability and generate 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Convective activity is expected to be isolated to widely scattered at best, but a few stronger thunderstorms along the seabreeze remain possible. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 3:45 AM Friday...PoPs will decrease as the seabreeze fizzles this evening. As we head into the overnight hours, a mid-level shortwave will approach the area. This boundary will increase cloud cover through the night, keeping lows mild near 70. PoPs will gradually increase at the end of the period ahead of a potentially potent system progged to impact ENC on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 4 AM Friday... Key Messages: - Strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening and again Sunday afternoon and evening. - Unsettled weather will continue through much of the rest of the long term. A mid level shortwave and sfc cold front approach the area Saturday bringing a threat of showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast. Could see some strong to potentially severe storms late Saturday and Saturday evening with moderate instability (SBCAPE values peak around 2000-2500+ J/Kg) and 0-6k bulk shear around 30-35 kt. PW values remain around 1.75-2" and the thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall as well. Similar environmental conditions persist into Sunday with another shortwave trough pushing across the region bringing another round of strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours. SPC has the region in a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms both Saturday and Sunday with damaging wind gusts the primary threat. Saturday looks to be the warmest day of the long term with highs in the low 90s inland and mid to upper 80s along the coast. Continued warm on Sunday with temps a couple of degrees cooler than Saturday. An upper low digs into the Great Lakes early next week with cyclonic flow developing across the region and a series of shortwave troughs advecting through the flow aloft keeping unsettled weather in the forecast for the rest of the long term. The airmass remains conditionally unstable with modest shear most days and could see a few strong storms, especially during peak heating. Persistent SW flow aloft will bring a descent tropical moisture feed into the region with PW values around 1.75-2", which is above the 90th percentile for this time of year, keeping a threat of heavy rainfall each day. Temps look to be near to a few degrees above normal early to middle of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 7:30 AM Friday...The TAF sites are currently a mixed bag of flight cats ranging from VFR to LIFR with low CIGs and fog across the CWA. VIS have been improving and should return to VFR status within the next hour. CIGs, on the other hand, may take until late this morning to return to VFR. Clouds will gradually lift and dissipate through the day with only high clouds lingering through early tonight. After midnight, cloud cover will start to increase again ahead of an approaching shortwave. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 415 AM Friday...An unsettled pattern will prevail through much of the long term keeping periods of showers and thunderstorms bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions across the region. There will also be the threat for late night/early morning fog each day as well. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/... As of 3:50 AM Friday...Great boating conditions are expected through the short term with sub-SCA winds and seas across all waters. South of Cape Hatteras, 10-15 kt winds will remain southwesterly. North of Cape Hatteras and closer to the surface low, 10-15 kt winds will be more variable. These waters will start out with south-southeasterly winds this morning, become northwesterly by tonight, and southwesterly by tomorrow morning. Seas will generally be 3-5 ft. LONG TERM /Saturday though Tuesday/... As of 415 AM Friday... A front approaches the waters Saturday but stalls inland from the coast before lifting to the north. SW winds around 10-20 kt expected to prevail through Monday with strongest winds during afternoon and evening hours when the diurnal thermal gradient is the tightest. Another cold front approached from the NW on Tuesday serving to tighten the gradient a bit more and could see low end SCA conditions develop, especially across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas generally around 3-5 ft through the long term with up to 6 ft seas across the southern/central waters on Tuesday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1233376 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:54 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 744 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening with the greatest areal coverage north of the Connecticut and Rhode Island borders. A few of these storms may become severe and also result in localized flash flooding. Some showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms linger into Saturday with seasonable temperatures making a return and continuing into early next week. Dry conditions expected Sunday heading into Monday before the next chance for some showers arrives on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Key Messages... * Numerous showers & thunderstorms develop this afternoon/early evening...greatest areal coverage north of the CT/RI/MA border * Scattered severe thunderstorms possible with the greatest risk in western/central and northeast MA * Flood Watch issued for western/central and northeast MA as the ingredients support a localized flash flood risk * Time of concern for severe weather is between noon and 10 PM with the highest risk in the 2 PM to 8 PM time frame Details... An active day of weather is on tap for the region later today into this evening. A warm and humid airmass in place will generate modest instability this afternoon. While it will not be as hot as yesterday...highs will reach into the 80s with dewpoints in the 60s. SPC SREF is indicating decent probs that Capes may reach or exceed 2000 J/KG today. This instability will be combining with a shortwave and frontal/sea breeze boundaries to generate numerous showers and thunderstorms. While we can not rule out an isolated shower/t-storm this morning...expect the main show to be in the noon to 10 pm time frame and particularly between 2 and 8 pm. The instability is favorable for severe weather this afternoon and evening...but there are some limiting factors too. The low level wind fields are quite weak and the effective shear is marginal. However...it does appear we may see a swath of 0-6 km shear reach 25- 35 knots with the focus north of the CT/RI/MA borders. That certainly is enough for some storm organization along with the threat of scattered severe thunderstorms. In fact...the HRRR/RRFS/NAM/HREF all showing solid UH swaths in the 2-5 KM layer which is often a good signal for severe weather. There also is good support from various machine learning guidance which highlights those areas in the best severe weather probs. This guidance also indicates that the main threat will be localized damaging wind gusts. There is a secondary concern for hail with decent mid level lapse rates. Given the weak low level wind fields...feel the tornadic risk is quite low which is also reflected in the machine learning guidance. We also should mention that the forcing/deeper moisture is better to the north of the CT/RI borders...but mid level lapse rates are steeper to the south on the order of 7 C/KM. K index values though indicate limited moisture...so any convection that is able to develop will be isolated to scattered at best. However...given the steeper mid level lapse rates and better instability any storm that is able to develop may become severe. And perhaps the greatest risk of hail from near I-90 to just south of the CT/RI border...where forcing overlaps a bit better with the better ML Lapse rates. Lastly...given Pwats exceeding 1.5 inches and relatively light low level wind fields pockets of torrential rainfall will result in a localized flash flood threat. The EMC HREF is indicating some probs of the 6 hour QPF exceeding the 10 and even low probs of exceeding the 100 year ARI. The HREF indicates 30 percent probs of rainfall exceeding 3" inside 3 hours...which is often a good signal for the potential of a localized flash flood threat. Given the above...we have opted to issue a Flash Flood Watch for western/central and interior northeast MA this afternoon into this evening. The risk for 2-3" of rain falling inside 2 hours will bring the potential for localized flash flooding...particularly if it were to occur over a vulnerable urban center. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Key Messages... * Bulk of the showers & t-storms diminish late this evening * Additional showers/iso t-storms are expected Sat but severe weather is not expected...highs mainly between 75 and 80 Details... Tonight... The bulk of the showers and thunderstorms will wind down later this evening as the shortwave departs coupled with the loss of diurnal heating/instability. While a few spot showers will remain possible overnight...another round of showers/isolated t-storms may begin to work into our area toward daybreak Sat with the cold front. Low temps tonight will mainly be between 60 and 65 degrees. Saturday.... The approaching cold front will cross the region on Saturday. The forcing along the front will bring another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms to the region. The instability will be considerably less than today...with MLCapes generally under 1000 J/KG. Therefore...the severe weather threat on Sat is rather low. High temps will mainly be in the 75 to 80 degree range. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Messages: * Dry Sunday into Monday before more rain is possible Tuesday * Clearing Wednesday into Thursday with highs reaching the low to mid 80s Details... Drier air moves in post-FROPA Sunday, bringing a break from the rain through early Monday. Onshore flow Sunday afternoon will also bring some relief from the heat to east coast areas. Sunday`s high temps likely in the upper 70s to low 80s across the interior, especially in the Connecticut River Valley, with the eastern coast and Islands in the low 70s. Onshore flow continues through Monday, allowing for a lengthier period of cooling and allowing for high temps to remain in the low 70s across southern New England. Some guidance is indicating a low moving to the northeast off the coast to our south on Monday, bringing some scattered showers to the Cape and Islands; however, there is also a good chance this low misses completely and those areas remain dry. Southeast flow makes a return for Tuesday, along with more rain chances. A warm front is expected to move through Tuesday, placing the region in the warm sector and elevating surface moisture, once again bringing rain chances. With rain looking possible for most of the day, highs are likely to remain in the 70s. A cold front passes through Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, shifting winds back to the west and ushering in some drier air. Drier and clearer conditions look likely Wednesday heading into Thursday post-FROPA. With the clearing skies, high temps look to rebound into the 80s for the midweek period. Lows through the extended period not expected to change much from night to night, remaining mostly in the 50s and 60s across southern New England. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12z TAF Update... Today...Moderate confidence. Varying conditions across the region with mainly VFR conditions this morning. Numerous showers and t-storms are expected to develop this afternoon into this evening with the focus for them across western/central and northeast MA. These storms will be capable of producing pockets of torrential rainfall and locally strong wind gusts. This activity will result in MVFR-IFR conditions with brief LIFR conditions too possible in the stronger t-storms. Winds generally less than 10 knots from varying directions across the region. Tonight...Moderate confidence. The bulk of the showers and thunderstorms will wind down later this evening as the shortwave departs. However...enough low moisture is present to allow cigs/vsbys to drop into the MVFR- IFR levels tonight across much of the region. Light S winds. Saturday...Moderate confidence. The cold front will approach the region from the west on Sat. This will bring another round of showers and isolated t-storm to the region. MVFR conditions will dominate but some improvement to VFR levels may occur later in the day across the interior. Light SW winds will begin to shift to the NW behind the cold front by late in the day. BOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. Chance for -TSRA near the terminal around 17z to 19z, but the greatest risk for showers and thunderstorms will be in the 18z to 00z time frame. BDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. The main risk for showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the terminal will be in the 18z to 00z time frame. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. Sunday Night through Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Saturday...High confidence. The gradient will remain weak enough to keep winds/seas below small craft advisory thresholds today and tonight. We think the bulk of the convection will remain to the north and west of our waters later today and tonight...but will have to watch the waters adjacent to northeast MA. The other issue for mariners will be areas of fog developing tonight...so vsbys may be reduced especially across the southern waters. A wave of low pressure will track near the Benchmark on Sat as a cold front approaches the waters from the west. Some showers and perhaps an isolated t-storm may accompany this front. Although winds will remain below criteria...southerly swell may result in 5+ seas developing on Sat and later shifts may need to consider headlines. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for MAZ002>006-008>012-026. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1233375 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:51 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 639 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Now Through Saturday Night... The upper ridge over northern Mexico, south Texas, the Gulf, and portions of the Deep South will remain through the period as a series of perturbations pass over our region along the northeast periphery of the ridge. A low-level ridge will persist from the Atlantic across the Gulf, maintaining light southwesterly winds across our area. Adequate moisture will be available for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms both days as precipitable waters values hover close to 1.8 inches. Therefore, the summer diurnal pattern continues through the period. Other than some lingering showers and storms spilling over through the early- evening hours, dry weather conditions will occur during the overnight hours. A High Risk of rip currents will continue through this afternoon, followed by a Moderate risk in the forecast over the weekend. Temperatures increase as we finish off the week, with highs today and Saturday ranging from 90 to 95 degrees interior areas, around 90 degrees closer to the coast, with mid 80s at the beaches and barrier islands. The interior temps could be as high as 4 to 6 degrees above normal for this time of year. Apparent temperatures (heat indices) should range from the upper 90s to as high as 105 degrees across the entire area. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to middle 70s inland, with upper middle 70s along the coast. These temps are around 6 to 11 degrees above normal. /22 Sunday Through Thursday... A very active pattern is expected through next week as an upper- level ridge gets shunted southwestward towards the south central US/northern Mexico in response to an upper trough developing over the Great Lakes region. Although we remain in a general northwesterly to westerly flow pattern aloft, multiple embedded shortwaves are expected to push across the area throughout the period. These shortwaves, paired with deep, rich moisture in place, as well as diffluent flow in the upper- levels, will lead to multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms throughout the entire period. The timing of each individual shortwave is rather difficult to pin down this far out due to discrepancies in guidance, however, at this point we are anticipating the highest coverage of showers and storms to likely occur during the afternoon and into the evening hours each day thanks to daytime heating, with storms initially developing along the sea breeze and residual outflow boundaries from previous storms. With that being said, storms could very well persist into the overnight hours, depending on how each shortwave evolves. As we get closer and we start receiving hi-res guidance, we will be able to fine-tune timing. One thing we will also have to monitor throughout this period is the development, organization, and progression of upstream storms that develop over the Southern Plains in response to the train of shortwaves. If storms are able to strengthen and organize, would not be surprised to see one or more MCS`s move across the Deep South and potentially push into our local area, especially during the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe when the shortwaves aloft are more robust. We will keep an eye on trends over the coming days. Sunday will be our warmest day of the long term period, with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows only dropping into the low to mid 70s, with upper 70s along the coast. Temperatures next week will be a couple degrees cooler due to cloud cover and higher convective coverage. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows will range from the upper 60s inland to the mid 70s along the coast. /96 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through 12z Saturday, along with light mainly southwesterly winds. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 A light to moderate southwesterly flow will persist through early next week, and there will be an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity early next week. Overall, low impactful weather is anticipated for small craft operators outside of any storms where winds and seas will be locally higher. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 90 75 92 75 91 74 89 72 / 20 10 20 10 50 50 70 60 Pensacola 89 78 91 79 90 77 87 76 / 20 20 20 10 50 60 70 60 Destin 88 78 90 80 89 78 87 77 / 20 10 30 20 50 70 70 70 Evergreen 92 72 94 73 92 72 88 71 / 30 20 30 20 60 50 80 60 Waynesboro 92 73 94 74 92 71 88 68 / 30 10 20 20 60 40 80 60 Camden 90 72 92 74 89 71 86 69 / 30 30 40 20 60 50 80 60 Crestview 92 72 94 73 92 73 90 71 / 30 20 40 10 60 60 80 60 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233374 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:39 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 622 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 A quasistationary 593 Dm ridge remains in place across northern Mexico into the western Gulf waters through Saturday night. This is about 2 standard deviations above normal for all the major ensemble guidance. Therefore, confidence is high (70 to 80 percent) in moderate to even pockets of major heat risk concerns heading into the weekend. Subsidence inversion means largely rain-free conditions except for isolated streamer showers over the Gulf waters and immediate coast. Persistent surface low pressure across west Texas and 1016mb surface high over the eastern Gulf waters mean continued southeasterly winds. Forecast soundings show mixing up to 925mb, and with a 25-30 kt southeasterly low-level jet (LLJ), expect gusty conditions Friday afternoon with 25-30 mph gusts at times. Even higher gusts are possible with 30-35 mph on Saturday. Isolated 35-40 mph gusts are not out of the question Saturday into Saturday night for areas west of I-69C/US-281 as the 925-850mb LLJ becomes more south-southeasterly oriented and strengthens to 30-35 kt and mixing deepens. Oppressive heat will also build and become more widespread heading into Saturday, although heat indices (which is a function of ambient air temperature and dew point temperature) should remain generally between 100-110 degrees on both Friday and Saturday. This is because while areas west of I-69C see temperatures top out in 96- 103 range, dew point temperatures would be somewhat more tolerable in the 63-69 range. Areas east of I-69C/US-281 and especially along the I-69E corridor see air temperature in the 90-97 range (except 85- 89 on SPI) but dew points in the 68-75 range. We will likely need a Special Weather Statement (SPS) for heat index values topping out in the 105 to 110 range this (Friday) afternoon and on Saturday afternoon. Depending on model trends and how much we cool off Friday night, a Heat Advisory might even be needed for parts of the area on Saturday for heat index values exceeding 111. Regardless of whether it is a SPS or Heat Advisory, widespread moderate (level 2 of 4) heat risk is likely, with pockets of major (level 3 of 4) heat risk. Please take the heat seriously especially for those with outdoor plans, including proper hydration and access to cooling measures. On a side note, Saharan dust originating from Africa could make for vibrant sunrises and sunsets through the weekend, although better probabilities are across the eastern Gulf. No deterioration in air quality is expected. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 It will still be uncomfortably to oppressively hot heading into Sunday. 590+ Dm ridge remains in control over our area but should be shunted southwestward into Mexico as we head into the start of the new work week. This is consistent with the upper level trough over the central and eastern U.S. becoming more amplified. Major heat risk (level 3 of 4) becomes widespread by Sunday into Monday due to the cumulative effect of the prolonged heat and lack of nocturnal cooling. The latter is especially true for areas along and east of I- 69E across the densely populated urban corridors of Cameron and Hidalgo counties, where the oppressive dew points in the mid to upper 70s mean that overnight lows will struggle to fall below 80 degrees. Further west across the mid and upper Valley, lower dew points in the upper 50s to mid 60s will mitigate the higher air temperatures, which are expected top out in the 102 to 107 range. Expect maximum heat index values of 105 to 111 Sunday into Monday. While not quite reaching Heat Advisory criteria, once again, the cumulative effects of the prolonged heat and lack of nocturnal cooling mean more widespread major heat risk impacts. Forecast uncertainty increases as we head into Tuesday and Wednesday. Models diverge in how quickly the upper level ridge breaks down and if the embedded shortwave energy can lead to any organized convection. Shower and thunderstorm chances begin to increase late Tuesday into Wednesday as a cold front tries to push southward but may end up stalling north of our CWA. Given the uncertainty for the mid to latter half of the week, have largely stuck with the blended guidance. But it is fair to say that confidence is medium to medium high (50-70 percent) that the weather pattern is going to get more unsettled by mid week, although it remains to be seen (10-30 percent confidence) whether we will get garden variety showers or more organized convection. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Only minor adjustments needed to the previous issuance of TAFs. MVFR to VFR will be the rule at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Light winds early this morning will become breezy after sunrise before diminishing around sunset. Partly cloudy and rain- free skies are also anticipated. && .MARINE... Issued at 1035 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail with light to moderate southeasterly winds and low to moderate seas. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are likely over the weekend into early next week along the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters. Mainly dry and warm conditions are expected over the weekend except for isolated showers over the Gulf waters. Weather pattern becomes more unsettled heading into middle of next week with 30-50 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms as a frontal boundary approaches but stalls north of our region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 93 80 94 81 / 10 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 95 78 96 78 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 99 80 100 81 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 100 79 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 81 88 82 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 80 92 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ |
| #1233373 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 618 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 A mid- to upper-level ridge will continue to dominate the weather pattern across South Texas through the weekend, maintaining strong subsidence that will suppress vertical motion and effectively limit any convective development. The arrival of a Saharan dust plume will further inhibit rainfall potential while also reducing visibilities today through the weekend. This subsident air mass will also support the persistence of hot conditions through early next week, with daily high temperatures running 3-8 degrees above normal. Forecast 850 mb temperatures between 20-25 degC are well above climatological averages, resulting in afternoon highs consistently reaching the triple digits across much of the Coastal Plains and Brush Country and the 90s across the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Bend. South- southeasterly surface flow will continue to draw low-level moisture into the region, enhancing the risk for heat related stress/illness. Heat index values will range from 110-117 across much of the area, especially west of the I-37 corridor where the likelihood of a Major to Extreme heat-related impacts is greatest. As a result, future forecasts may require the issuance of Heat Advisories or Excessive Heat Warnings, specifically Saturday- Monday. Looking ahead to early next week, the aforementioned ridge is expected to shift westward, allowing weak mid-level disturbances to move across the CWA. This pattern shift combined with increasing atmospheric moisture (PWATs rising to 2.0-2.2 inches), will lead to an increase in rain chances (20-70%) from Tuesday-Friday, with the highest chances focused over the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Plains. More limited activity is expected across the far western portions of the Brush Country due to its closer proximity to the lingering ridge. Increased cloud cover and any rainfall will help moderate temperatures slightly, with daytime highs expected to drop into the 90s areawide by midweek. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Mainly VFR conditions in place this morning but could still see brief MVFR at any site over the next few hours. Gusty winds develop once again. Tonight should be similar to what we have seen this morning with mainly VFR conditions but brief MVFR CIGS possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 A moderate (BF 4) onshore breeze can be expected through next week. A plume of Saharan dust moving into the region today will result in hazy skies through this weekend. Rain chances will return Monday night and increase through midweek next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 80 94 79 / 10 0 0 0 Victoria 94 77 95 77 / 10 0 0 0 Laredo 102 79 104 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 98 77 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 91 82 91 82 / 10 0 0 0 Cotulla 103 78 105 78 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 95 78 97 78 / 10 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 89 82 89 82 / 10 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233372 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:21 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 712 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 - Hot and very humid conditions are expected from this weekend into early next week. - Hazy skies this weekend due to the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). - A Moderate Risk for rip currents continues at area beaches. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Today-Tonight...Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will drift southward towards the Bahamas today, dragging the ridge axis into south Florida. Meanwhile, the upper level high over south Texas will expand its axis farther eastward through the Gulf, towards the Florida peninsula. Ridging through the column and the continued influence of the SAL give confidence that the NBM PoPs are overzealous once again today. While slightly cooler than yesterday, forecast 500mb temperatures around -6.5 to -7C and modest lapse rates do not support the widespread 50-70% PoPs from the NBM. Instead, have trended towards MOS and CONSAll guidance, with PoPs generally 30-40% across the area. CAMs suggest the highest coverage once again occurring along and north of the I-4 corridor, with the lowest chances across southern portions of the forecast area. Similarly to Thursday, should a storm be able to take advantage of drier air in the mid-levels, wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible, along with the threat for lightning strikes and locally heavy rainfall. Any showers or storms will peak in activity from mid to late afternoon, then drift off of the coast into the evening hours with dry conditions then prevailing overnight. With the ridge axis south of the forecast area, southwesterly flow is forecast to prevail across east central Florida. This will lead to a more dominant west coast sea breeze, helping to pin the east coast breeze at or near the coast. Thus, little relief from hot temperatures is expected this afternoon, with highs reaching the lower 90s. Lingering moisture across the area will also lead to humid conditions and heat indices from 100-105 degrees. Warm temperatures will continue overnight, with lows in the lower to mid-70s. This Weekend...The pattern generally continues through the weekend, with the ridge axis remaining south of the local area, though the ridge over the western Atlantic will elongate/drift eastward through the period. Slightly drier air (PWATs closer to 1.5" than 1.75") will be the main difference. Combined with continued warm (~-7C) 500mb temperatures, have continued to undercut the NBM through the weekend. PoPs 20-30% Saturday and 30-40% Sunday. Increasingly drier air could support a few stronger wind gusts, should storms develop and be able to take advantage of it. Temperatures will creep higher into Sunday, with highs reaching the lower to mid-90s. Continued southwesterly flow will limit the inland progression of the east coast sea breeze. Heat indices remaining around 98-103 degrees. Next Week...The ridge continues to move eastward into the Atlantic next week, as the ridge axis drifts northward through the local area. Meanwhile, a series of weak upper-level shortwaves are forecast to pass through the Deep South. As the ridge axis moves northward, higher moisture will return to east central Florida, advected in by southerly flow. The east coast sea breeze will drift increasingly inland, with a collision over the interior. Higher shower and storm chances return, though likely not with enough coverage to support the 90% produced by the NBM. Thus, have gone with a more seasonable 50-60% each day next week. Temperatures will remain hot through at least Tuesday, before a more dominant east coast sea breeze develops into late week. Highs remaining in the lower to mid-90s early in the week, then upper 80s to lower 90s for the rest of the period. Heat indices 100-105 remain forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Generally favorable boating conditions through mid-week next week, as high pressure lingers near to the local area. The main threat will be scattered offshore- moving showers and storms in the late afternoon and evening hours each day. South to southwesterly flow will back southeasterly along the coast each afternoon and increase to 10-15 kts as the sea breeze develops, but remains pinned through at least this weekend. Seas 1-3 ft. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 704 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Mainly VFR conds through the TAF period. Light W/SW flow 5-7 kts develops after sunrise, shifting southeast at the coastal terminals behind the sea breeze btwn 17Z-19Z. Will maintain VCTS over northern terminals aft 18Z, incl LEE/MCO/SFB/DAB/MLB. Some of these will prob be upgraded to TEMPOs. Less confidence for SHRA/TSRA across southern terminals so no precip mention VRB-SUA for now. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 72 93 73 / 50 10 40 10 MCO 93 74 94 74 / 40 10 30 10 MLB 90 74 91 74 / 40 20 30 10 VRB 90 73 91 74 / 30 20 30 20 LEE 91 74 92 75 / 40 10 30 10 SFB 93 74 94 74 / 40 10 30 10 ORL 93 75 94 76 / 40 10 30 10 FPR 90 72 91 73 / 30 10 30 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1233371 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:12 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 609 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 The theme of this weekend will be "What if peak of summer, but in early June?". Look for temperatures near daily records, and even if those records stay safe, it`ll be wise to keep heat safety at the front of mind as the nice weather and the weekend will surely pull many of us outside to enjoy the feel of grass. Some key points on the forecast: - With highs rising into the upper 90s for all but the immediate Gulf coast, record highs will be at risk both Saturday and Sunday. The most at risk will be Hobby Airport, whose records are 98 and 97, respectively. - The forecast heat index is the "trailing" heat intensity tool, and even it is forecast to be around/above 105 for inland counties. HeatRisk largely rises into the major impact range (level 3 of 4) on the persistent high-end temperatures, and high risk level wet bulb globe temps (level 4 of 5) are also forecast. - A stormier pattern returns early next week with a cold front sagging its way south through the state. At the least, we`ll be looking for daily opportunities for rain and thunderstorm development. Stay tuned in the coming days for more information on potential for severe storms or excessive rain in this stretch. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 The short term is Ridge Time for the Texas Gulf Coast. An 592+ dm 500 mb high will be hanging out over the coast through today, and only retreat a tiny bit back towards the west by late Saturday night, keeping us fully under its reign for the entire period. At lower levels, continued onshore flow around high pressure off to our east means we`ll keep things good and humid as well. Sooo, yup, we`re not gonna really have anything to talk about except heat. As we build into the peak heat of the next week this weekend, we`ll mostly be exploring the nuances of the heat, and what kind of threat it poses to a place where heat is already a familiar, and common, foe this time of year. Temperatures - First off, we`ve got a pretty high floor. Average highs this time of year are roughly around 90 degrees. Today, I`ve got forecast highs beginning to reach into the mid 90s inland. Looking at the NBM probability distribution, there`s not much room for things to come in below that, either as confidence in the high-end heat is about as high. Today is the "uncertain" day, where the probability of a high above 90 is 70-100 percent for all but the immediate Gulf coast. Tomorrow looks even more confidently in the 90s, as my forecast now pushes into the middle to upper 90s and the NBM probability of highs above 90 degrees are 90-100 percent except for right on the Gulf. On the flip side, while we will eventually make some record highs look nervously over their shoulder, today probably isn`t quite that day. NBM probabilities fall to less than 10 percent for virtually the entire area at 95 degrees today. So while confidence is high that we get easily into the 90s today, the upper 90s seem off the table. To reach that same probability ceiling tomorrow, we drift upwards to 98 degrees. This tends to imply that even as the heat turns up, we`re still looking to fall short of daily records, which cluster around the century mark. So, while I`m quite confident Saturday highs will be uncomfortably close to records, I`d also be somewhat surprised to see any records fall. If one does, I`d put my money on Hobby, whose record high for June 7 is only 98 degrees. Things do not get much better at night, as low temps should be up in the middle to upper 70s both nights. Right on the immediate Gulf coast, temps may struggle to fall below 80 at all (sorry, Galveston). Heat Index - our traditional index to describe the combined impact of heat and humidity, expect the hot temps and humid conditions to result in peak heat index in the triple digits area-wide today, though generally in the 100-105 range. Tomorrow, things crank up more inland with the hotter temps, with forecast peak heat index of 104-109. Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) - Similar to heat index in that it considers heat and humidity, but also uses wind speeds and solar intensity (due to both cloud cover and sun angle). Both today and tomorrow (especially tomorrow!), WBGT forecasts rise into the high risk range for the large majority of Southeast Texas. High risk is a level 4 of 5 in these threat categories, with only extreme above it. Fortunately, there is no real area of extreme risk emerging tomorrow. HeatRisk - An experimental heat tool, this considers temperature in the context of how unusually high it gets, and the persistence of that heat - both overnight and over multiple days. Today, with temperatures a little closer to average than to records, HeatRisk is a mix of moderate and major impact (levels 2 and 3 of 4). Tomorrow, major impact potential becomes much more widespread across the area. On the upside, like with WBGT, there is no real emergence of an extreme impact potential tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 We begin the long term still under the strong influence of a deep subtropical ridge, resulting in hotter than normal temperatures on both Sunday and Monday. Both days are expected to feature inland highs in the mid/upper 90s. However, ridging will start its breakdown on Monday. Thus, Monday is expected to be a tad less hot than Sunday. Monday will also have a better chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Beyond Monday, ridging breakdowns further while a parade of vort maxes and shortwaves pass over our region, resulting in an unsettled and less hot pattern. Many locations could fail to reach 90 degrees Tuesday-Thursday due to clouds and scattered to widespread showers/thunderstorms. We will need to monitor the potential for heavier thunderstorms. Localized flooding would be the primary concern. But a few strong to severe thunderstorms couldn`t be ruled out either. The Tuesday-Thursday time frame is a little far out to be talking confidently about severe weather and flood potential. But the overall signal appears favorable for at least some heavier showers and thunderstorms during the Tuesday-Thursday time frame. Self && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 609 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 MVFR/IFR CIGs have been slow to fill in up north, so CLL and UTS TAFs are heavily front-loaded to bring conditions down to MVFR, then back up to VFR by mid to late morning. More broadly speaking, we`ll see light and generally SSW winds early strengthen to around or just under 10kts and more SSE, before weakening again tonight. Also bring back MVFR CIGs from IAH northward overnight. Haze from Saharan dust moving in late tonight may start to become noticeable, but expectation is this will be mostly well above ground and should not impact VSBY significantly. && .MARINE... Issued at 1125 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Light to moderate onshore flow and relatively low seas are expected through the middle of next week. However, seas could be around 5 feet in the offshore open Gulf waters at times.Beach conditions over the weekend will feature an enhanced rip current risk along with hotter than normal temperatures. The pattern turns more unsettled next week, with an increasing chance of rain and thunderstorms. Heavier thunderstorms capable of locally higher winds and seas are possible, especially starting Tuesday through the end of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 93 76 96 77 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 93 78 96 78 / 10 0 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 88 82 89 82 / 10 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233368 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:06 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 656 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 124 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 A considerable plume of Saharan Dust is forecast to remain in place across South Florida through the period, while an area of high pressure will continue to build in from the western Atlantic while ridging sets up aloft. The combination of this blocking pattern and the presence of the Saharan dust will help inhibit widespread convective development each day. Portions of the interior could still see a few stray showers develop where the sea breezes meet each afternoon given enough lingering moisture in the area (observed and forecast PWATs in the 1.5-1.8 inch range, about average for this time of year) but coverage and duration will be minimal and transient. Temperatures today will climb back into the upper 80s for the East Coast and up to the low to mid 90s across southwest Florida. Conditions warm up even further on Saturday thanks to the influence of the lingering Saharan dust, with highs reaching the low 90s across the East Coast, and potentially hitting the mid to upper 90s over southwest FL. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 124 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Saturday night - Sunday night: Ridging aloft will continue to build over the Gulf and the western Atlantic this weekend, while high pressure continues to build in from the western Atlantic at the surface. Light easterly to southeasterly winds will prevail as a result, allowing for the gradually thinning Saharan dust plume to linger across the region through the weekend. Convective develop will remain constrained sea breeze-induced showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, with chances in the 30-40% range over the interior and 20-30% over the East Coast. Monday - Thursday: The pattern becomes a bit more progressive at the beginning of the new week as a mid-level trough will begin to deepen across the Eastern Seaboard. Model guidance now shows the Gulf ridge weakening as a result, making way for the ridge over the western Atlantic to begin expanding eastward into our region, in concert with its corresponding surface high, which will continue to build into South FL. Meanwhile, NASA/GMAO GEOS modeling of the Dust Aerosol Optical Thickness has the dust clearing out on Monday afternoon. If both of these solutions pans out, the building ridge could act to keep the mid-level trough well north of our area, and with it the more unsettled and impactful weather. However, with the Saharan dust finally clearing making way for tropical moisture to return to the area, the chances for mesoscale driven showers and thunderstorms along the sea breezes each afternoon could increase considerably mid week. And if the trough happens to dip any further south, it could result in even higher chances for unsettled weather. For now, we`re going with a forecast that straddles both the drier and wetter solutions with PoPs in the 50-70% range, but the forecast will need to be closely monitored and adjusted over the next couple of days if this trend changes. Daily high temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s each day with highest temperatures over the interior. Overnight lows each night will be in the low 70s around the Lake Okeechobee region and interior, with mid 70s for the Gulf coast and upper 70s for the east coast metro. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 655 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 SCT MVFR ceilings throughout the day. Light SE winds 5-10 kts, with an afternoon Gulf breeze expected at APF. SCT showers and thunderstorms mainly over the interior late this afternoon, with VCSH in at APF. && .MARINE... Issued at 124 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will prevail across the local waters today, but will gradually weaken heading into Saturday as a surface high builds over the region. Winds in the Gulf could veer from the southwest each afternoon as the Gulf Breeze develops. Isolated to scattered showers remain possible each afternoon. && .BEACHES... Issued at 124 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across the Atlantic Coast beaches today. The rip current risk will gradually diminish heading into the weekend as onshore flow continues to weaken. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 91 78 92 77 / 20 10 20 10 West Kendall 91 74 91 74 / 20 10 20 10 Opa-Locka 91 78 92 78 / 20 10 20 10 Homestead 89 77 90 76 / 10 10 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 89 77 89 77 / 20 10 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 90 77 91 77 / 20 10 20 10 Pembroke Pines 91 79 92 79 / 20 10 20 10 West Palm Beach 90 76 91 76 / 20 10 20 10 Boca Raton 86 76 89 76 / 20 10 20 10 Naples 90 75 91 76 / 30 20 30 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233367 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:57 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 646 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather returns later today with the exception of a few afternoon storms in the Piedmont. A cold front approaches tonight and moves into the region Saturday, before lingering over the area Sunday. This will bring a return to chances of primarily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Drier weather returns on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 320 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Showers are expected across far southern VA and NE NC this morning, with lower chances elsewhere. - A few thunderstorms could reach the VA Piedmont this afternoon/evening before weakening as they approach I-95. Early morning wx analysis shows mostly zonal flow aloft over the eastern CONUS, with a weak surface low/shortwave tracking across NC with a stronger shortwave in the Plains. Radar mosaic shows some light rain continuing near the coast. The low will continue to track east through NC and eventually offshore today. Can`t rule out showers near the SE VA/NE NC coast this morning, but additional rain amounts will average 0.20" or less. Clouds will be slow to clear near the coast...while skies become partly to mostly sunny inland today. Temps will rise well into the 80s near and west of I-95, with highs only around 80F near the coast due to the persistent cloud cover. While most of the day will be dry, numerous tstms will develop well to our W/NW (across the mountains). There is a chc that a few storms reach the VA Piedmont by late aftn/early evening...but any convection likely weakens as it approaches the I-95 Corridor as instability will diminish the farther east one goes. With decent sfc heating/upper 60s dew pts across western portions of the FA resulting in 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, can`t completely rule out 40- 55 mph wind gusts in the strongest storms. Convection diminishes after 9-10 PM with dry, seasonable, and humid wx expected tonight with lows in the mid-upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 320 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected on both Saturday and Sunday afternoon/evening. - A few of the storms may be strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts being the main threat. The best chance of stronger storms is along and south of I-64 on both days. The progressive pattern with zonal flow aloft continues through the weekend, and a couple of fast moving shortwaves will track over the area (leading to unsettled wx). The first shortwave slides across the region Saturday morning, which could produce some showers. However, a cold front will approach from the NNW later in the day and cross part of the area Saturday night. Meanwhile, a stronger shortwave aloft (and more significant height falls) arrives later in the day with the approaching cold front. Temperatures rise well into the 80s to near 90F across the southern 2/3 of the FA, with upper 60s-70F dew points expected. This will allow for ample instability (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) along and south of I-64 despite meager mid- level lapse rates (6C/km), while the shortwave aloft/height falls will provide the necessary lift for convection to develop by 2-3 PM initially across central/eastern VA. Scattered to numerous tstms then move to the SE during the late aftn/evening before exiting the area after 10-11 PM. Unsure how much in the way of storms form across northern areas (from LKU-SBY) where sfc heating won`t be as strong. But, have moderate confidence in at least scattered tstms along and south of I-64. One factor that could suppress convection on Saturday is if morning clouds/showers linger long enough to impact convective initiation during the aftn/evening. Though will note that most of the CAMs shows at least scattered convection during the aftn/evening. With the instability in place combined with 30-40 kt of effective shear, strong to severe tstms are possible. The highest threat is south of I-64 where SPC has a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for severe wx, while the Marginal Risk has been maintained farther N. Still looks like primarily a damaging wind threat with storm mode likely becoming linear...although the initial cells may be able to produce small hail (not as confident in large hail given high freezing levels and 6C/km mid-level lapse rates). The coverage of precip should drop off overnight Saturday as the cold front sags S. Lows Saturday night will mainly be in the mid 60s to around 70F. For Sunday, the front moves back north and likely stalls somewhere over the CWA as secondary low pressure develops and tracks from W-E along it. Another robust shortwave aloft is progged to quickly cross the region during the late aftn-evening. A few showers are possible Sunday morning, with scattered-numerous tstms expected once again during the aftn/evening. Similar to Saturday, the main focus for severe wx will be along and south of that front (which likely means southern VA/NE NC). Instability will be somewhat limited north of I-64 where forecast highs are in the upper 70s-80F. The most likely timing for severe wx is from 2-10 PM Sunday. The mid level flow on Sunday will likely be a bit stronger than what it will be on Sat (especially S), with similar amounts of instability expected. SPC has introduced a Slight Risk across SE VA/NE NC, with a Marginal Risk farther north. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat, but large hail can`t completely be ruled out. There will also be the potential for locally heavy rainfall/localized flooding given PWATs remaining elevated and with the front nearly parallel to the mid level flow. Precip quickly exits after 10-11 PM Sun night once again with lows falling into the mid-upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 320 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Mainly dry Monday. - Unsettled conditions return Tuesday, with mostly dry weather expected by Wednesday. By Monday, PW anomalies return to near normal with the front washing out across NC, so PoPs are mainly 20% or less, with the exception of 20-30% near the Albemarle Sound. Scattered-numerous aftn/evening tstms are once again expected on Tuesday as moisture increases ahead of another (fairly strong) shortwave trough. There will likely at least some sort of organized severe threat given that the mid-level flow will be 30-45 kt with a decent amount of instability to work with. By Wednesday, high pressure and drier conditions potentially return to the region as the trough axis moves offshore. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through the medium range period. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 645 AM EDT Friday... VFR to MVFR conditions prevail at RIC/SBY this morning, with IFR to LIFR conditions at ORF/PHF/ECG due to low stratus/drizzle. IFR-LIFR conditions are expected to continue across SE VA/NE NC through late morning before improving to MVFR then VFR later today. No worse than MVFR CIGs are expected at RIC, with VFR through the day at SBY. Isolated-scattered tstms will develop across the mountains/piedmont this aftn but should weaken before reaching RIC this evening. Winds remain aob 10 kt through the period. Another period of MVFR to IFR CIGs is possible tonight, especially near the coast. A cold front will approach from the NW Saturday bringing a 50-60% chc of showers/tstms. This front is expected to linger in vicinity of the region Sunday with a high chc of showers/tstms continuing. The latest guidance shows the front pushing S of the region Monday. Showers/storms return Tuesday aftn/evening. && .MARINE... As of 320 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - A weak low pressure system develops along the NC coast this morning and moves offshore. - Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the period though winds may gust to 15 to 20 kt at times. - Potential for thunderstorms across the waters Saturday and Sunday. Morning weather analysis shows a high pressure off the east coast and a low pressure system now developing off the coast of VA/NC. The low pressure system this morning continues to bring light rain showers across the bay and northern ocean zones. Due to the weakness of the system winds remain out of the east around 5 to 10 kt with gusts upwards of 15 kt. Waves remain low with wave heights around 1 ft across the bay and 2 to 3 ft across the ocean, with occasional 4ft waves across the south. Later this morning and through the rest of the day the low pressure system will begin to track north. This will allow for the chances of showers to decrease through the late morning hours. In addition, as the low begins to strengthen winds will increase out of the east around 10 kt with gusts of 15 kt. With the onshore flow wave heights will also increase to 1 to 2 ft across the bay and 3 to 4 ft in the ocean. By this evening as the low tracks further off the coast winds will shift out of the NW then by Saturday morning will quickly shift back out of the SSE. Winds will still remain between 5 to 10 kt through tonight and into tomorrow morning. The overall weekend is looking quite optimal across the waters as seas and winds are expected to remain below SCA criteria. Will note, there is the potential for showers and thunderstorms across the waters this weekend and any strong shower and thunderstorm will be dealt with a SMW. The main threat with these thunderstorms will be gusty winds. As of this forecast update the best chance of thunderstorms Saturday look to be in the southern bay zone and south. Sunday looks to be more wide spread across the waters. Trends will continue to be monitored for timing of these potential showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Moderate rip currents remain in the forecast for all beaches through this weekend as onshore flow will remain persistent through today and Sunday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1233366 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:45 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 642 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Another round of diurnally driven thunderstorm activity is expected across the area. With the upper level low out of the region, and the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge building in, coverage should be a little less widespread today compared to previous days. Low-level flow will also be light and out of the west today so much of the activity will generally form within the vicinity and ahead of the seabreeze and gradually push inland through the day. Warmer temperatures will allow greater instability to develop and the presence of slightly drier air aloft could allow stronger wind gusts in storms this afternoon so a brief severe storm can`t be ruled out. This threat would be greatest along any favorable storm mergers and/or outflow boundaries that allow storms to gain considerable depth. Activity winds down after sunset tonight and only concerns through the overnight would be patchy fog. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Heading into this weekend, upper level ridging centered across Mexico and the western Gulf will keep us in westerly flow aloft. A few shortwaves embedded in the westerly flow will move just north of us, but remain close enough to keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for both Saturday and Sunday. Timing looks to be fairly typical for summer with the chance starting in the morning hours near the coast, then spreading inland through the afternoon. This is not expected to be a washout all day, but thunderstorm activity is expected to be scattered around the area, typical of summer. High temperatures are expected to generally range from the upper 80s to near 90 along the coast to the lower to middle 90s inland. Overnight lows are expected to be mostly in the lower to middle 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Thursday) Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Heading into early next week, an upper level trough is expected to dive into the Great Lakes region with the local area near the base of the trough. This will keep westerly flow aloft and a series of shortwaves sufficient to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. A weak surface boundary is expected to push southward into the northern portions of our area Sunday night into Monday morning, providing an additional focus for showers and thunderstorms that could last deeper into the overnight on Sunday night than is typical for summer. Deep layer shear is actually fairly impressive for early June standards at around 30 knots, which is near the 90th percentile. We`ll need to keep an eye on the potential for a cluster of strong to severe storms to organize Sunday evening into Monday morning with gusty winds, particularly across our northern counties. A repeat performance looks possible Monday evening into Tuesday morning as well. For the remainder of the week, the weak boundary will not make it through the area given that it`s early June now, and we`ll see a continued muggy environment with precipitable water values in the 1.7 to 2 inch range, which is above average for early June. The upper level trough over the Great Lakes will shift eastward, but we`ll continue with light westerly to southwesterly flow aloft locally, and coupled with the above average moisture, shower and thunderstorm chances will remain elevated through the week. The NBM PoPs of 80-90 percent every day may be a bit overdone, but the overall theme of daily scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms looks reasonable. Temperatures are expected to be within a few degrees of average for early June, generally lower 90s for highs and low to mid 70s for lows. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 During the early morning hours, low ceilings to MVFR/IFR are possible with some localized LIFR conditions possible. Any restrictions should should lift to VFR by mid/late morning. During the afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop along the seabreeze and across inland areas through the day with most activity generally winding down after 00z. && .MARINE... Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Surface high pressure in the Atlantic will maintain a light to moderate southerly to southwesterly breeze the next several days. Seas will generally run between 2 to 3 feet. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast for the next several days. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Rain chances will be a touch lower today and have a more diurnal trend compared to recent days where activity got an earlier start. Relatively high minimum afternoon humidities and light winds will keep fire weather concerns mostly low the next few days. Only concerns through the next few days will be dispersions on the higher side and gusty/erratic winds in the vicinity of any thunderstorm activity. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 There are no significant changes from the previous forecast. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances remain through the weekend into early next week. Locally heavy rain is possible within any of those showers or storms thanks to precipitable water values (PWATs) between 1.7" to 2.0", or near the 90th percentile for early-mid June. 3hr Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) remains between 2.5" to 3.5" in the more urban areas and 3" to 5.5" in our more rural locations. These values are forecast to decrease the next few days thanks to those daily rain chances. Nuisance flooding of urban and poor drainage areas are the biggest concern, especially as we see the soil continue to moisten with each round of showers and storms. Fortunately, area rivers and streams remain in good shape with gradual rises possible as more and more rain falls across the region. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 91 74 92 74 / 70 30 70 20 Panama City 88 77 89 78 / 30 10 50 20 Dothan 91 73 93 74 / 50 20 50 20 Albany 90 73 93 74 / 40 20 50 20 Valdosta 91 73 93 74 / 60 30 60 20 Cross City 90 72 91 73 / 50 10 50 20 Apalachicola 87 76 87 78 / 50 10 50 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ108-112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233365 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:45 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 641 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... After a one day break from widespread thunderstorm activity today, the weather will turn quite unsettled for atleast the next several days if not more. This the result of a series of upper level disturbances combined with sfc boundaries moving across the area while using the hot and humid conditions to their advantage. && .UPDATE... Some minor tweaks made to cloudiness for today, otherwise all remains on track. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Low pressure should be just to our NE with westerly flow around it drying out inland but with some low level moisture lingering at the coast. Isolated showers with a possible rumble of thunder could pop up at the coast and along the sea breeze this afternoon. The main issue for the period will be how long clouds hold on during the day as they should start clearing out late this afternoon from SW to NE. How long they stick around will impact high temperatures for SE NC. NE SC should reach near 90 away from the coast but the lingering clouds should may SE NC fall shy of this, in the mid to upper 80s. Should clouds clear out quickly, highs will rise closer to 90. Increasing mid to high level clouds overnight should warm lows a bit, with low temps in the lower 70s with extensive radiational cooling not expected. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Upper s/w trof within westerly flow aloft to pass just north of the FA early Sat. Will see clouds and possible morning isolated convection with a sfc trof along the I-95 corridor. The next embedded upper s/w trof to affect the FA Sat aftn and evening. POPs will climb to high chance to likely as the s/w trof interacts with a sfc boundary dropping to the FA. SPC has the entire ILM CWA within a SLGT Risk (2 of 5) for severe tstorms with kinematic/dynamic reasoning in their discussion. Looking at damaging wind gusts and possibly hail the primary severe threats. Sat max temps will break into the 90-95 degree range away from the beaches with a healthy sea breeze likely with an inland progression limited given the decent westerly flow aloft. Min temps Sat night, widespread 70s. Sun thru Sun night, longwave amplified upper trof to become better organized as it sets up shop across the eastern 1/2 to 1/3rd of the U.S. Embedded s/w trofs will pivot around/thru the upper trof, pushing across the FA Sun aftn and night. 90 degree readings for Sun max temps look aok once again. Sfc boundary to drop down and replace the 1 across portions of the FA. POPs will be slightly hier Sun over Sat given the more direct impacts from the embedded s/w trofs. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Under the influence of the Eastern U.S. amplified longwave upper trof Mon thru Wed with embedded s/w trofs pivoting thru it. Sfc boundaries to persist across portions of the FA and with ample moisture and June insolation thrown into the mix, look for diurnal scattered to numerous shower/thunderstorm activity each day. Convection activity may persist well into the night provided dynamics from any of these embedded s/w trofs pushing across the FA. The upper longwave trof to finally progress downstream away from the FA during the latter half of the week. This will enable a cold front to push across and possibly south of the FA. If this occurs, look for a drying out period as an upper ridge axis tries to become established across the SE States. Thu/Fri POPs will drop back to isolated to low chance. Temps the 1st half of the work-week to run at or slightly above climo, the end week will end with at or just below normal temps. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR/IFR should clear out within the next several hours. The coastal terminals have cleared out but there`s low clouds behind this that should make it there within the TAF period starting. After clearing there will be some BKN to SCT mid-level clouds that will linger through the afternoon, and some isolated showers and storms possible. There will be a weak sea breeze at the coast with winds going from W to S. VFR should return with increasing high clouds tonight, light SW winds becoming predominant. Extended Outlook...Brief restrictions possible in afternoon/evening thunderstorms Saturday through Tuesday, along with a chance of overnight/morning fog and stratus Saturday night and Sunday night. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...West winds will become SW in the afternoon with the sea breeze, speeds 10-15 kts through tonight. Seas will be largely 3 ft with a 3 ft SW swell at 5-6 seconds and a 1-2 ft E swell at 8-9 seconds. Some isolated showers and storms are possible in the afternoon and evening. Saturday through Tuesday...Southwest winds to dominate the extended wind forecast. Persistent Sfc trof inland and well offshore centered high pressure off the SE States Coast will be the mainstays Sat into Wed. Sfc boundaries dropping down from the NW-N will likely remain just north of the local waters this period. The sfc pg will yield wind speeds in the 10-15 kt or around 15 kt range with g20+ kt possible especially Sat aftn and night. The daily sea breeze will affect the waters nearshore, within 10 nm of the coast, with winds temporarily becoming southerly in direction and could produce 25 kt wind gusts depending on the strength of the sea breeze3 which should be strongest Sat. Convection to be more common Sat thru Tue, abating-some by Wed. Seas generally in the 2 to 4 ft range with a few days in the 3 to 5 ft range, especially the waters Cape Fear to Murrells inlet with the better Southwesterly fetch. Short period, 3 to 6 second period wind driven waves to dominate. With an underlying small SE-SSE 8+ second period swell remaining present and accounted for. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1233364 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 613 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Active weather pattern continues as multiple frontal boundaries and disturbances impact the region. A few storms may become strong to severe severe this weekend, with damaging winds expected to be the primary hazard. A brief reprieve in heat then returns early next week in the wake of a strong cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... No major changes were needed for the sunrise update. Through This Evening: A more typical summertime environment will become established across the region today as subtropical ridging centered over South Texas builds east. The low-level flow will remain somewhat westerly today in the wake of low pressure exiting the Outer Banks and given the orientation of the ridge aloft. Modified RAP soundings do show modest to locally strong mixed-layer instability developing during the afternoon (MLCAPE values 2000-2500 J/kg) as highs warm to near 90, but the mean lower tropospheric flow is forecast to remain westerly for much of the day, only backing at the surface closer to the coast during the late afternoon as a pinned sea breeze circulation tries to form. This will limit low-level convergence at first with convection being mostly forced by strong surface heating. Once isolated showers/tstms form, there is a potential for additional convection to pop as corridors of convergence concentrate along convective outflows and possible collisions. The sea breeze may play a factor late as showers/tstms try to work closer to the immediate coast, but the CAMs are not overly excited about this scenario suggesting even convergence along the sea breeze itself could remain fairly weak. 850 hPa theta-e values look highest in a west-east oriented ribbon south of I-16 and this is where the best coverage of showers/tstms are expected to occur. Pops 20-40% were highlighted this afternoon into early this evening, highest south of I-16. Convection will wind down quickly this evening with the onset of nocturnal stabilization. The mid-levels have dried out considerably since yesterday. Soundings support DCAPE values peaking ~1000 J/kg by mid-late afternoon. This could support an isolated severe tstm or two with damaging winds and cloud-to-ground lightning being the primary hazards. Some small hail could develop with WBZ heights just below 12 kft, but the strong surface heating will tend to melt hail as it falls and likely keeping it below 1". Weak 0-6km bulk shear suggests any severe tstms will be pulse in nature with possibly some brief, transient organization occurring at times where updrafts become enhanced where convective outflows collide. Overnight: Dry conditions will prevail. There are indications that a cluster of showers/tstms with origins from northern Georgia could make a run for far interior Southeast Georgia after midnight. Most of this activity should dissipate prior to reaching this far the east and southeast, but this will have to watched closely. For now, no mentionable pops were included for the overnight period. It will be rather warm for early June with lows only dropping into the lower 70s well inland to around 80 at the beaches and Downtown Charleston--more typical of deep summer. These lows could challenge the record high minimums for 7 June, especially at the Charleston Intl Airport (KCHS) and Downtown Charleston/Waterfront Park (KCXM). See the climate section below for additional information. It should be noted that the unusually warm temperatures tonight yield a MAJOR (level 3/red) heat risk for parts of the coast, including portions of both the Charleston and Savannah Metro Areas. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Balmy conditions will prevail this weekend, as afternoon highs rise into the lower 90s in combination with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. As a result, expect heat indices to rise into the upper 90s to lower 100s, the warmest along and east of I-95. While not uncommon for this of year, still encourage everyone to remain hydrated and take breaks or rest in the shade as needed. Given the moist environment and diurnal heating expected to take place, can`t rule out seeing afternoon/evening showers and storms. In regard to the severe potential, latest soundings for Saturday do show ample CAPE (~1000 to 2000 J/kg), 0-6km bulk shear around 25 to 30 kt, and DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg. Lapse rates remain rather meager though, with values around 6 - 7 degC/km in the low to mid levels. Thus, with these values in place, could certainly see a few storms capable of producing damaging gusts. Main caveat to this is timing. Latest CAMs show a MCS progged to push across the TN Valley Saturday evening, perhaps reaching our area near/after 00z. Not entirely confident if this system will be able to sustain itself, as some guidance hints that it will fizzle out before reaching our area. In the event that it does reach us, this would place the main line of storms in an environment with weakening instability/shear as the diurnal heat source wanes. Dependent on how things pan out, could see some lingering convection by daybreak Sunday. This would put a slight damper on additional development later that afternoon as the atmosphere works to stabilize itself. However, if the MCS fizzles out before reaching us Saturday night, think the better chance for seeing severe weather would occur Sunday afternoon/evening as a similar environment unfolds. Otherwise, look for upper level troughing across the Ohio River Valley to deepen Monday as an upper level low build over the Great Lakes region. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Expect the aforementioned upper level trough to push eastward Monday night into Tuesday, bringing with it renewed chances for precipitation. Afternoon highs will also be somewhat "cooler" in the wake of its associated sfc cold front. Currently have temperatures warming into the upper 80s to lower 90s for the remainder of the extended period. A typical diurnal summertime pattern of scattered afternoon showers and storms will also continue during this time as the seabreeze pushes inland. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 06/12z Aviation Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Low clouds at KCHS and KJZI will mix out quickly as sunset approaches. Isolated to scattered showers/tstms are expected to form as early as late morning and continuing into the afternoon hours. Coverage looks greatest over Southeast Georgia, but much of this may stay south of KSAV. For now, VCTS was highlighted 17-20z. For KCHS and KJZI, coverage looks to remain a bit more isolated so impact probabilities look too low to justly a mention at this time. Extended Aviation Outlook: Typical summertime convection will bring periodic flight restrictions through Monday. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: West winds will back to the southwest later this afternoon as pinned sea breeze develops along the beaches. Some slight surging near the sea breeze along the land/sea interface and in Charleston Harbor could occur late, but winds should go no higher than 15 kt. Otherwise, winds will average 10-15 kt with seas subsiding to 2-3 ft. Tonight, southwest winds 10-15 kt will prevail with seas 2-3 ft. Saturday through Monday: Expect west south-westerly winds to prevail throughout the period, with sustained speeds between 10 to 20 kt. Winds could become a bit breezy at times, especially over the weekend, with gusts up to 25 kt possible as the sea breeze moves inland. While SCA are not expected at this time, will continue to monitor the Charleston County coastal waters, including the Charleston Harbor in the event that guidance increases or actual winds over perform. Otherwise, look for seas to range between 2 to 4 ft throughout the period. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 7: KCHS: 75/2021 KCXM: 79/2021 June 8: KCHS: 76/1980 KCXM: 78/2021 KSAV: 79/1881 June 9: KCHS: 77/1978 KSAV: 77/1877 June 11: KCHS: 76/2020 KSAV: 76/2010 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1233363 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:15 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 510 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 337 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Drier weather conditions have continued through the overnight shift, courtesy of the Saharan Air Layer and a surface ridge stretched across the area. Temperatures look like they have bottomed out in the lower 80s with continuous gentle breezes out of the southeast. Our KBYX radar has only detected meaningful convection over Cuba, but it does look like there are a few ghost boundaries that have tracked across the Upper Keys. It is very unlikely that this would be enough to overpower the SAL and ridging, so we don`t expect any active weather in the immediate future associated with these boundaries. Even with the SAL present, our upper air sounding from last night did show some pockets of moisture in the mid to upper levels. It`s very likely that our morning sounding today will show the same thing since the GOES-19 Nighttime Microphysics product is detecting some cloud cover aloft, but the good news is that it doesn`t look like it`ll be enough to keep away the sunshine today. We are, in fact, still recovering from the lack of sunshine earlier this week when we saw all of that rainfall. The overall forecast still looks uneventful, but a tug of war continues with available model guidance when it comes to any upcoming pattern change. The SAL looks like it will linger through at least the next few days as the persistent southeasterly flow will reinforce the advection of the dust into our area, so we still feel stronger confidence that chances for showers and thunderstorms are slight at best. As we enter the early work week, the SAL may mix out of the area, and a push of moisture may take its place. Similar to previous forecast cycles, both deterministic and probabilistic guidance favor a very wet pattern. PoPs from both forms of guidance have been impressive considering we`re still 4 to 5 days out from this. Breaking down the ensemble members, there are still a handful that are hanging on to the influence of the SAL. Even though this disagrees with the majority, we can`t dismiss it. All of this is to say that we are going to continue to advertise PoPs much less than guidance until we see what the SAL ends up doing. Hot afternoons and warm overnight will continue to be the name of the game until we can clear some of this dust out, and replace with a surge of moisture. && .MARINE... Issued at 337 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, Saharan dust will continue to linger in the air, and will promote lower rain and thunder chances over the next several days. High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coastline will continue to move eastward and merge with a stronger high centered near the Azores. This will encourage an extended period of light to gentle east to southeast breezes. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 337 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 VFR conditions are mostly expected through the TAF period. However, there may be occasional periods of MVFR CIGs. Near surface winds are expected to remain east to southeast between 10 to 15 knots early this morning before slackening later in the day to around 10 knots. Occasional gusts to near 20 knots are anticipated through daybreak to a little beyond with gusts diminishing shortly thereafter. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys weather history, the daily record high temperature of 96F was recorded in Key West set back in 1881. This is also the warmest temperature ever recorded in June. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1873. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233362 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 348 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 233 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 The short term will only see heat and humidity and low chances of rain around 30% at best, and these will be fleeting. The sfc high cetered east of FL will get forced a bit farther south as we move into the weekend. Since this high is ridging through our area, it will cause our winds to become more SWerly. This does not change a lot, but normally when we get into SW to W low level flow patterns, things can heat up quickly. And since the dew pts don`t change, it can get oppressive. Thankfully we are not in the deepest throws of summer with this pattern. Northerly flow will cause the heat to go up as well, but this pattern differs from northerly flow since dew pts usually don`t lower. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 233 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Relief is coming in the form of sh/ts possibly as early as Sunday afternoon or evening as a trough axis slowly moves into the gulf south. There could be some storms with this that become strong or severe in NW flow. The axis will orient NW to SE into our area for the first of the week which will allow developing systems to the west to ride this axis into the area by mid week if it stalls over us. The question has been where is this boundary going to stall and trends now give some evidence to this. The main trough axis looks to stall just north of the area but the good thing is that storms don`t just develop in a linear fashion adhering to this boundary. Instead, storms are helped to develop by this boundary then move along and away from it, and this is what brings some of these storms into our area at first. The boundary should then slowly progress to near the gulf coast Tue and stall again Wed before washing out. This farther movement may be from outflows from storms as they move south and SE. The trough simply breaks the cap over the area for several days past Sunday. This allows the strong sfc variables to be released upward giving us a better chance of sh/ts. The only bad thing is that each day will bring with it the probability of a few storms misbehaving. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 233 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 VFR through this cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 233 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Southerly winds at 10kt today will slowly shift to SW through the weekend then back to south by late Tue and SE by Wed. Speeds should stay around 10kt for a general flow. There is a good chance of sh/ts each day and night with higher chances expected east of the Miss River. Some of these could become strong causing winds to shift and rise abruptly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 93 73 92 74 / 10 0 20 0 BTR 94 75 94 77 / 10 0 30 0 ASD 92 75 93 76 / 20 0 20 0 MSY 93 78 93 78 / 30 0 30 0 GPT 90 76 91 77 / 10 0 20 0 PQL 90 75 91 75 / 10 10 20 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233361 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 347 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New Discussion... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Now Through Saturday Night... The upper ridge over northern Mexico, south Texas, the Gulf, and portions of the Deep South will remain through the period as a series of perturbations pass over our region along the northeast periphery of the ridge. A low-level ridge will persist from the Atlantic across the Gulf, maintaining light southwesterly winds across our area. Adequate moisture will be available for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms both days as precipitable waters values hover close to 1.8 inches. Therefore, the summer diurnal pattern continues through the period. Other than some lingering showers and storms spilling over through the early- evening hours, dry weather conditions will occur during the overnight hours. A High Risk of rip currents will continue through this afternoon, followed by a Moderate risk in the forecast over the weekend. Temperatures increase as we finish off the week, with highs today and Saturday ranging from 90 to 95 degrees interior areas, around 90 degrees closer to the coast, with mid 80s at the beaches and barrier islands. The interior temps could be as high as 4 to 6 degrees above normal for this time of year. Apparent temperatures (heat indices) should range from the upper 90s to as high as 105 degrees across the entire area. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to middle 70s inland, with upper middle 70s along the coast. These temps are around 6 to 11 degrees above normal. /22 Sunday Through Thursday... A very active pattern is expected through next week as an upper- level ridge gets shunted southwestward towards the south central US/northern Mexico in response to an upper trough developing over the Great Lakes region. Although we remain in a general northwesterly to westerly flow pattern aloft, multiple embedded shortwaves are expected to push across the area throughout the period. These shortwaves, paired with deep, rich moisture in place, as well as diffluent flow in the upper- levels, will lead to multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms throughout the entire period. The timing of each individual shortwave is rather difficult to pin down this far out due to discrepancies in guidance, however, at this point we are anticipating the highest coverage of showers and storms to likely occur during the afternoon and into the evening hours each day thanks to daytime heating, with storms initially developing along the sea breeze and residual outflow boundaries from previous storms. With that being said, storms could very well persist into the overnight hours, depending on how each shortwave evolves. As we get closer and we start receiving hi-res guidance, we will be able to fine-tune timing. One thing we will also have to monitor throughout this period is the development, organization, and progression of upstream storms that develop over the Southern Plains in response to the train of shortwaves. If storms are able to strengthen and organize, would not be surprised to see one or more MCS`s move across the Deep South and potentially push into our local area, especially during the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe when the shortwaves aloft are more robust. We will keep an eye on trends over the coming days. Sunday will be our warmest day of the long term period, with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows only dropping into the low to mid 70s, with upper 70s along the coast. Temperatures next week will be a couple degrees cooler due to cloud cover and higher convective coverage. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows will range from the upper 60s inland to the mid 70s along the coast. /96 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. A few isolated showers may develop along the coast later this morning, followed by the development of isolated to scattered showers and storms during the afternoon, primarily over interior locations. Expect brief reductions in visibility and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. Light and variable winds this morning will become a light southwesterly wind of around 5 to 10 knots by the afternoon. /96 && .MARINE... Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 A light to moderate southwesterly flow will persist through early next week, and there will be an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity early next week. Overall, low impactful weather is anticipated for small craft operators outside of any storms where winds and seas will be locally higher. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 90 75 92 75 91 74 89 72 / 20 10 20 10 50 50 70 60 Pensacola 89 78 91 79 90 77 87 76 / 20 20 20 10 50 60 70 60 Destin 88 78 90 80 89 78 87 77 / 20 10 30 20 50 70 70 70 Evergreen 92 72 94 73 92 72 88 71 / 30 20 30 20 60 50 80 60 Waynesboro 92 73 94 74 92 71 88 68 / 30 10 20 20 60 40 80 60 Camden 90 72 92 74 89 71 86 69 / 30 30 40 20 60 50 80 60 Crestview 92 72 94 73 92 73 90 71 / 30 20 40 10 60 60 80 60 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233360 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 432 AM AST Fri Jun 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * An elevated risk of flooding will persist over interior to western Puerto Rico due to afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Passing showers over the eastern region. * Highs will range from the upper 80s to low 90s, with heat indices above 100 degrees. * Winds will somewhat decrease into the weekend, remaining breezy in the afternoon for some coastal areas. Winds increasing again next week. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday... During the overnight hours, mainly fair weather conditions prevailed over the islands with mostly clear skies over the islands, with the exception of western Puerto Rico earlier in the night as cloudy skies prevailed in that area due to remnants of yesterday`s afternoon convection. By 2 AM, almost all of this cloudiness was over the Mona Passage. Shower activity was relegated to passing showers mostly over the waters and steered by easterly winds. Since midnight, radar estimated accumulations over land were found mostly over the southeastern quadrant of Puerto Rico. Lows were at to below in the upper normal over several areas, several official and unofficial stations reported temperatures and in the low to mid 60s over interior PR, in the low to mid 70s over western, north-central and eastern interior PR and in the upper 70s to around 80 over other lower elevation and coastal areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. A mid level ridge and the presence of Saharan dust over the region will persist into the weekend and early next workweek. A surface high over the Atlantic will gradually strengthen during the period, maintaining easterly, to east-southeasterly this weekend onwards, steering flow. This surface high is also helping steer smoke from wildfires at Canada over the local islands, deteriorating air quality. Precipitable water values are expected to be generally at below normal values, as a patch of drier air approaches the region through Saturday afternoon. More humid air is forecast to arrive by Saturday evening, maintaining PWAT values up to around 1.8 to 1.9 in for the rest of the period. A tropical wave will move across the eastern Caribbean around Tuesday. This is due to the mid level ridge starting to weaken and and moisture pulling into the area due to the east- southeast steering flow and increasing the diurnal pattern, although model uncertainty remains. Although a decrease in wind speeds are forecast during the next couple of days, up to breezy conditions are forecast, next week. The diurnal pattern will persist during the period with showers over windward sectors, especially in the morning, and afternoon showers and thunderstorms over interior to western Puerto Rico, due to diurnal heating, sea breeze convergence and topographic effects, and downwind of El Yunque and the local islands. An elevated risk of flooding is forecast over interior to western Puerto Rico each afternoon. The trade winds will also continue to bring patches of clouds and showers from time to time. Highs will reach the upper 80s to low 90s, with heat indices over 100 degrees. A limited heat risk will persist for most coastal and lower elevation areas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Mainly VFR conditions expected. SHRA will move across the local waters, reaching the VCTY of TIST, TISX, TJSJ & TJPS with little impacts. SHRA and TSRA expected over interior to western PR after around 06/17Z, with mountain obscuration over the interior. Reduced visibilities and low ceilings possible for TJBQ. Winds mainly from the E at 13-18kts with higher gusts after around 06/13Z. && .MARINE... A surface high pressure across the central Atlantic will continue to promote moderate to locally fresh trade winds, shifting east to southeast in the weekend. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop each afternoon over the western waters of Puerto Rico. A tropical wave will move across the eastern Caribbean around Tuesday. && .BEACH FORECAST... The risk for rip currents is low today and tonight, however, life-threatening rip currents often occur in the vicinity of groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. By tomorrow evening, a moderate risk of rip currents will be present for northern Puerto Rico, Culebra and St. Croix. This moderate risk of rip currents will possibly spread to the northern USVI and Vieques on Sunday and southeastern Puerto Rico on Monday. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1233359 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 436 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... After a one day break from widespread thunderstorm activity today, the weather will turn quite unsettled for atleast the next several days if not more. This the result of a series of upper level disturbances combined with sfc boundaries moving across the area while using the hot and humid conditions to their advantage. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Low pressure should be just to our NE with westerly flow around it drying out inland but with some low level moisture lingering at the coast. Isolated showers with a possible rumble of thunder could pop up at the coast and along the sea breeze this afternoon. The main issue for the period will be how long clouds hold on during the day as they should start clearing out late this afternoon from SW to NE. How long they stick around will impact high temperatures for SE NC. NE SC should reach near 90 away from the coast but the lingering clouds should may SE NC fall shy of this, in the mid to upper 80s. Should clouds clear out quickly, highs will rise closer to 90. Increasing mid to high level clouds overnight should warm lows a bit, with low temps in the lower 70s with extensive radiational cooling not expected. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Upper s/w trof within westerly flow aloft to pass just north of the FA early Sat. Will see clouds and possible morning isolated convection with a sfc trof along the I-95 corridor. The next embedded upper s/w trof to affect the FA Sat aftn and evening. POPs will climb to high chance to likely as the s/w trof interacts with a sfc boundary dropping to the FA. SPC has the entire ILM CWA within a SLGT Risk (2 of 5) for severe tstorms with kinematic/dynamic reasoning in their discussion. Looking at damaging wind gusts and possibly hail the primary severe threats. Sat max temps will break into the 90-95 degree range away from the beaches with a healthy sea breeze likely with an inland progression limited given the decent westerly flow aloft. Min temps Sat night, widespread 70s. Sun thru Sun night, longwave amplified upper trof to become better organized as it sets up shop across the eastern 1/2 to 1/3rd of the U.S. Embedded s/w trofs will pivot around/thru the upper trof, pushing across the FA Sun aftn and night. 90 degree readings for Sun max temps look aok once again. Sfc boundary to drop down and replace the 1 across portions of the FA. POPs will be slightly hier Sun over Sat given the more direct impacts from the embedded s/w trofs. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Under the influence of the Eastern U.S. amplified longwave upper trof Mon thru Wed with embedded s/w trofs pivoting thru it. Sfc boundaries to persist across portions of the FA and with ample moisture and June insolation thrown into the mix, look for diurnal scattered to numerous shower/thunderstorm activity each day. Convection activity may persist well into the night provided dynamics from any of these embedded s/w trofs pushing across the FA. The upper longwave trof to finally progress downstream away from the FA during the latter half of the week. This will enable a cold front to push across and possibly south of the FA. If this occurs, look for a drying out period as an upper ridge axis tries to become established across the SE States. Thu/Fri POPs will drop back to isolated to low chance. Temps the 1st half of the work-week to run at or slightly above climo, the end week will end with at or just below normal temps. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A mess of MVFR/IFR expected tonight after the rain yesterday. Winds won`t be completely calm, so we`ll deal with both CIGs and VSBYs depending on the terminal. 9-12Z should have the worst conditions, with clearing starting after sunrise, CIGs lingering til slightly later in the morning ~15Z. BKN to SCT mid-level clouds will then linger through the afternoon, some isolated showers and storms possible. There will be a weak sea breeze at the coast with winds going from W to S. VFR should return with increasing high clouds Friday night, light SW winds becoming predominant. Extended Outlook...Brief restrictions possible in afternoon/evening thunderstorms Saturday through Tuesday, along with a chance of overnight/morning fog and stratus Saturday night and Sunday night. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...West winds will become SW in the afternoon with the sea breeze, speeds 10-15 kts through tonight. Seas will be largely 3 ft with a 3 ft SW swell at 5-6 seconds and a 1-2 ft E swell at 8-9 seconds. Some isolated showers and storms are possible in the afternoon and evening. Saturday through Tuesday...Southwest winds to dominate the extended wind forecast. Persistent Sfc trof inland and well offshore centered high pressure off the SE States Coast will be the mainstays Sat into Wed. Sfc boundaries dropping down from the NW-N will likely remain just north of the local waters this period. The sfc pg will yield wind speeds in the 10-15 kt or around 15 kt range with g20+ kt possible especially Sat aftn and night. The daily sea breeze will affect the waters nearshore, within 10 nm of the coast, with winds temporarily becoming southerly in direction and could produce 25 kt wind gusts depending on the strength of the sea breeze3 which should be strongest Sat. Convection to be more common Sat thru Tue, abating-some by Wed. Seas generally in the 2 to 4 ft range with a few days in the 3 to 5 ft range, especially the waters Cape Fear to Murrells inlet with the better Southwesterly fetch. Short period, 3 to 6 second period wind driven waves to dominate. With an underlying small SE-SSE 8+ second period swell remaining present and accounted for. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1233358 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:30 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 428 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will push offshore today. A cold front will move through ENC this weekend. Unsettled weather will continue through much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 3 AM Friday...The surface low is currently sitting over the western edge of the CWA and will continue progressing northeastwards through the morning. The west/east draped warm front associated with this low is draped across the Outer Banks and is supporting ongoing showers and thunderstorms along the coast and offshore. Winds have decoupled across much of the CWA, allowing dense patchy fog and low stratus to overspread the area. Fog should burn off quickly after sunrise but will linger the longest across the inner coastal plain. It should also be noted that some guidance is hinting at fog developing across the NOBX this afternoon, but confidence in this is low at this time. The trend for today has been drier with only isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms expected. Along the immediate coast, PoPs will decrease over the next few hours as the low moves offshore. This afternoon, a shortwave will move across the area and the seabreeze will become pinned near the coast as surface winds veer from southwest to northwest. This should prohibit showers and thunderstorms from making it to the inner coastal plain, keeping the corridor of highest PoPs east of Highway 17 and west of the Outer Banks. Coastal plain high temps will be about 10 degrees warmer today (mid- to upper-80s) while areas along the coast will be about the same as yesterday (near 80). These temps, paired with dews in the low-70s, will build instability and generate 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Convective activity is expected to be isolated to widely scattered at best, but a few stronger thunderstorms along the seabreeze remain possible. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 3:45 AM Friday...PoPs will decrease as the seabreeze fizzles this evening. As we head into the overnight hours, a mid-level shortwave will approach the area. This boundary will increase cloud cover through the night, keeping lows mild near 70. PoPs will gradually increase at the end of the period ahead of a potentially potent system progged to impact ENC on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 4 AM Friday... Key Messages: - Strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening and again Sunday afternoon and evening. - Unsettled weather will continue through much of the rest of the long term. A mid level shortwave and sfc cold front approach the area Saturday bringing a threat of showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast. Could see some strong to potentially severe storms late Saturday and Saturday evening with moderate instability (SBCAPE values peak around 1500-2000+ J/Kg) and 0-6k bulk shear around 30-35 kt. PW values remain around 1.75-2" and the thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall as well. Similar environmental conditions persist into Sunday with another shortwave trough pushing across the region bringing another round of strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours. SPC has the region in a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms both Saturday and Sunday with damaging wind gusts the primary threat. Saturday looks to be the warmest day of the long term with highs in the low 90s inland and mid to upper 80s along the coast. Continued warm on Sunday with temps a couple of degrees cooler than Saturday. An upper low digs into the Great Lakes early next week with cyclonic flow developing across the region and a series of shortwave troughs advecting through the flow aloft keeping unsettled weather in the forecast for the rest of the long term. The airmass remains conditionally unstable with modest shear most days and could see a few strong storms, especially during peak heating. Persistent SW flow aloft will bring a descent tropical moisture feed into the region with PW values around 1.75-2", which is above the 90th percentile for this time of year, keeping a threat of heavy rainfall each day. Temps look to be near to a few degrees above normal early to middle of next week. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 1:30 AM Friday...The TAF sites are currently a mixed bag of flight cats ranging from VFR to LIFR. Widespread MVFR/IFR flight cats are expected to persist through the overnight hours with CIGs lingering between 300-500 feet and VIS between 3-5 miles. Leaned toward the more pessimistic GLAMP, which shows a very slow recovery after sunrise with CIGs not returning to MVFR until 14-16z. Clouds will gradually lift and dissipate through the afternoon with VFR conditions expected to return by approximately 18z with only high clouds lingering through the rest of the period. Light southerly winds overnight will veer to the northwest shortly after sunrise and back to the southwest by this time tomorrow. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 415 AM Friday...An unsettled pattern will prevail through much of the long term keeping periods of showers and thunderstorms bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions across the region. There will also be the threat for late night/early morning fog each day as well. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/... As of 3:50 AM Friday...Great boating conditions are expected through the short term with sub- SCA winds and seas across all waters. South of Cape Hatteras, 10-15 kt winds will remain southwesterly. North of Cape Hatteras and closer to the surface low, 10-15 kt winds will be more variable. These waters will start out with south-southeasterly winds this morning, become northwesterly by tonight, and southwesterly by tomorrow morning. Seas will generally be 3-5 ft. LONG TERM /Saturday though Tuesday/... As of 415 AM Friday... A front approaches the waters Saturday but stalls inland from the coast before lifting to the north. SW winds around 10-20 kt expected to prevail through Monday with strongest winds during afternoon and evening hours when the diurnal thermal gradient is the tightest. Another cold front approached from the NW on Tuesday serving to tighten the gradient a bit more and could see low end SCA conditions develop, especially across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas generally around 3-5 ft through the long term with up to 6 ft seas across the southern/central waters on Tuesday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1233357 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:30 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Charleston SC 422 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Active weather pattern continues as multiple frontal boundaries and disturbances impact the region. A few storms may become strong to severe severe this weekend, with damaging winds expected to be the primary hazard. A brief reprieve in heat then returns early next week in the wake of a strong cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Through Daybreak: GOES-E fog products show low/mid-level clouds are slowly developing across the area as high clouds push east. High-res near term guidance is mixed on how widespread any stratus and possibly fog will become with 1000 hPa condensation pressure deficits running at levels only marginally favorable for meaningful fog development. While some localized patchy dense fog with localized vsbys 1/4 mile or less can not be ruled out, significant fog seems unlikely at this time. A number of AWOS sites across the interior may eventually drop below 1 mile, but these may not be truly represent prevailing conditions. Visibility trends are being carefully monitored. Through This Evening: A more typical summertime environment will become established across the region today as subtropical ridging centered over South Texas builds east. The low-level flow will remain somewhat westerly today in the wake of low pressure exiting the Outer Banks and given the orientation of the ridge aloft. Modified RAP soundings do show modest to locally strong mixed-layer instability developing during the afternoon (MLCAPE values 2000-2500 J/kg) as highs warm to near 90, but the mean lower tropospheric flow is forecast to remain westerly for much of the day, only backing at the surface closer to the coast during the late afternoon as a pinned sea breeze circulation tries to form. This will limit low-level convergence at first with convection being mostly forced by strong surface heating. Once isolated showers/tstms form, there is a potential for additional convection to pop as corridors of convergence concentrate along convective outflows and possible collisions. The sea breeze may play a factor late as showers/tstms try to work closer to the immediate coast, but the CAMs are not overly excited about this scenario suggesting even convergence along the sea breeze itself could remain fairly weak. 850 hPa theta-e values look highest in a west-east oriented ribbon south of I-16 and this is where the best coverage of showers/tstms are expected to occur. Pops 20-40% were highlighted this afternoon into early this evening, highest south of I-16. Convection will wind down quickly this evening with the onset of nocturnal stabilization. The mid-levels have dried out considerably since yesterday. Soundings support DCAPE values peaking ~1000 J/kg by mid-late afternoon. This could support an isolated severe tstm or two with damaging winds and cloud-to-ground lightning being the primary hazards. Some small hail could develop with WBZ heights just below 12 kft, but the strong surface heating will tend to melt hail as it falls and likely keeping it below 1". Weak 0-6km bulk shear suggests any severe tstms will be pulse in nature with possibly some brief, transient organization occurring at times where updrafts become enhanced where convective outflows collide. Overnight: Dry conditions will prevail. There are indications that a cluster of showers/tstms with origins from northern Georgia could make a run for far interior Southeast Georgia after midnight. Most of this activity should dissipate prior to reaching this far the east and southeast, but this will have to watched closely. For now, no mentionable pops were included for the overnight period. It will be rather warm for early June with lows only dropping into the lower 70s well inland to around 80 at the beaches and Downtown Charleston--more typical of deep summer. These lows could challenge the record high minimums for 7 June, especially at the Charleston Intl Airport (KCHS) and Downtown Charleston/Waterfront Park (KCXM). See the climate section below for additional information. It should be noted that the unusually warm temperatures tonight yield a MAJOR (level 3/red) heat risk for parts of the coast, including portions of both the Charleston and Savannah Metro Areas. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Balmy conditions will prevail this weekend, as afternoon highs rise into the lower 90s in combination with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. As a result, expect heat indices to rise into the upper 90s to lower 100s, the warmest along and east of I-95. While not uncommon for this of year, still encourage everyone to remain hydrated and take breaks or rest in the shade as needed. Given the moist environment and diurnal heating expected to take place, can`t rule out seeing afternoon/evening showers and storms. In regard to the severe potential, latest soundings for Saturday do show ample CAPE (~1000 to 2000 J/kg), 0-6km bulk shear around 25 to 30 kt, and DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg. Lapse rates remain rather meager though, with values around 6 - 7 degC/km in the low to mid levels. Thus, with these values in place, could certainly see a few storms capable of producing damaging gusts. Main caveat to this is timing. Latest CAMs show a MCS progged to push across the TN Valley Saturday evening, perhaps reaching our area near/after 00z. Not entirely confident if this system will be able to sustain itself, as some guidance hints that it will fizzle out before reaching our area. In the event that it does reach us, this would place the main line of storms in an environment with weakening instability/shear as the diurnal heat source wanes. Dependent on how things pan out, could see some lingering convection by daybreak Sunday. This would put a slight damper on additional development later that afternoon as the atmosphere works to stabilize itself. However, if the MCS fizzles out before reaching us Saturday night, think the better chance for seeing severe weather would occur Sunday afternoon/evening as a similar environment unfolds. Otherwise, look for upper level troughing across the Ohio River Valley to deepen Monday as an upper level low build over the Great Lakes region. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Expect the aforementioned upper level trough to push eastward Monday night into Tuesday, bringing with it renewed chances for precipitation. Afternoon highs will also be somewhat "cooler" in the wake of its associated sfc cold front. Currently have temperatures warming into the upper 80s to lower 90s for the remainder of the extended period. A typical diurnal summertime pattern of scattered afternoon showers and storms will also continue during this time as the seabreeze pushes inland. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 06/06z Aviation Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Low and mid-level clouds are expected to expand with time as a band of high clouds aloft pushes east. It is unclear if widespread stratus will develop with recent near term guidance essentially split on its potential. Expect mainly low- end VFR cigs to develop at all terminals over the next few hours with potential for a few hours of MVFR just before daybreak. TEMPO groups were utilized to reflect this trend. VFR will dominate shortly after sunrise with isolated to scattered showers/tstms developing as early as late morning and continuing into the afternoon hours. Coverage looks greatest over Southeast Georgia, but much of this may stay south of KSAV. For now, VCTS was highlighted 17-20z, but the need for a TEMPO group will be reassessed with the 12z TAFs. For KCHS and KJZI, coverage looks to remain a bit more isolated so impact probabilities look too low to justly a mention at this time. Extended Aviation Outlook: Typical summertime convection will bring periodic flight restrictions through Monday. && .MARINE... Through Daybreak: Elevated southwest winds 15-20 will veer more westerly and diminish as daybreak approaches. Today and Tonight: West winds will back to the southwest later this afternoon as pinned sea breeze develops along the beaches. Some slight surging near the sea breeze along the land/sea interface and in Charleston Harbor could occur late, but winds should go no higher than 15 kt. Otherwise, winds will average 10-15 kt with seas subsiding to 2-3 ft. Tonight, southwest winds 10-15 kt will prevail with seas 2-3 ft. Saturday through Monday: Expect west south-westerly winds to prevail throughout the period, with sustained speeds between 10 to 20 kt. Winds could become a bit breezy at times, especially over the weekend, with gusts up to 25 kt possible as the sea breeze moves inland. While SCA are not expected at this time, will continue to monitor the Charleston County coastal waters, including the Charleston Harbor in the event that guidance increases or actual winds over perform. Otherwise, look for seas to range between 2 to 4 ft throughout the period. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 7: KCHS: 75/2021 KCXM: 79/2021 June 8: KCHS: 76/1980 KCXM: 78/2021 KSAV: 79/1881 June 9: KCHS: 77/1978 KSAV: 77/1877 June 11: KCHS: 76/2020 KSAV: 76/2010 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1233356 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:15 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 310 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 The theme of this weekend will be "What if peak of summer, but in early June?". Look for temperatures near daily records, and even if those records stay safe, it`ll be wise to keep heat safety at the front of mind as the nice weather and the weekend will surely pull many of us outside to enjoy the feel of grass. Some key points on the forecast: - With highs rising into the upper 90s for all but the immediate Gulf coast, record highs will be at risk both Saturday and Sunday. The most at risk will be Hobby Airport, whose records are 98 and 97, respectively. - The forecast heat index is the "trailing" heat intensity tool, and even it is forecast to be around/above 105 for inland counties. HeatRisk largely rises into the major impact range (level 3 of 4) on the persistent high-end temperatures, and high risk level wet bulb globe temps (level 4 of 5) are also forecast. - A stormier pattern returns early next week with a cold front sagging its way south through the state. At the least, we`ll be looking for daily opportunities for rain and thunderstorm development. Stay tuned in the coming days for more information on potential for severe storms or excessive rain in this stretch. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 The short term is Ridge Time for the Texas Gulf Coast. An 592+ dm 500 mb high will be hanging out over the coast through today, and only retreat a tiny bit back towards the west by late Saturday night, keeping us fully under its reign for the entire period. At lower levels, continued onshore flow around high pressure off to our east means we`ll keep things good and humid as well. Sooo, yup, we`re not gonna really have anything to talk about except heat. As we build into the peak heat of the next week this weekend, we`ll mostly be exploring the nuances of the heat, and what kind of threat it poses to a place where heat is already a familiar, and common, foe this time of year. Temperatures - First off, we`ve got a pretty high floor. Average highs this time of year are roughly around 90 degrees. Today, I`ve got forecast highs beginning to reach into the mid 90s inland. Looking at the NBM probability distribution, there`s not much room for things to come in below that, either as confidence in the high-end heat is about as high. Today is the "uncertain" day, where the probability of a high above 90 is 70-100 percent for all but the immediate Gulf coast. Tomorrow looks even more confidently in the 90s, as my forecast now pushes into the middle to upper 90s and the NBM probability of highs above 90 degrees are 90-100 percent except for right on the Gulf. On the flip side, while we will eventually make some record highs look nervously over their shoulder, today probably isn`t quite that day. NBM probabilities fall to less than 10 percent for virtually the entire area at 95 degrees today. So while confidence is high that we get easily into the 90s today, the upper 90s seem off the table. To reach that same probability ceiling tomorrow, we drift upwards to 98 degrees. This tends to imply that even as the heat turns up, we`re still looking to fall short of daily records, which cluster around the century mark. So, while I`m quite confident Saturday highs will be uncomfortably close to records, I`d also be somewhat surprised to see any records fall. If one does, I`d put my money on Hobby, whose record high for June 7 is only 98 degrees. Things do not get much better at night, as low temps should be up in the middle to upper 70s both nights. Right on the immediate Gulf coast, temps may struggle to fall below 80 at all (sorry, Galveston). Heat Index - our traditional index to describe the combined impact of heat and humidity, expect the hot temps and humid conditions to result in peak heat index in the triple digits area-wide today, though generally in the 100-105 range. Tomorrow, things crank up more inland with the hotter temps, with forecast peak heat index of 104-109. Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) - Similar to heat index in that it considers heat and humidity, but also uses wind speeds and solar intensity (due to both cloud cover and sun angle). Both today and tomorrow (especially tomorrow!), WBGT forecasts rise into the high risk range for the large majority of Southeast Texas. High risk is a level 4 of 5 in these threat categories, with only extreme above it. Fortunately, there is no real area of extreme risk emerging tomorrow. HeatRisk - An experimental heat tool, this considers temperature in the context of how unusually high it gets, and the persistence of that heat - both overnight and over multiple days. Today, with temperatures a little closer to average than to records, HeatRisk is a mix of moderate and major impact (levels 2 and 3 of 4). Tomorrow, major impact potential becomes much more widespread across the area. On the upside, like with WBGT, there is no real emergence of an extreme impact potential tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 We begin the long term still under the strong influence of a deep subtropical ridge, resulting in hotter than normal temperatures on both Sunday and Monday. Both days are expected to feature inland highs in the mid/upper 90s. However, ridging will start its breakdown on Monday. Thus, Monday is expected to be a tad less hot than Sunday. Monday will also have a better chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Beyond Monday, ridging breakdowns further while a parade of vort maxes and shortwaves pass over our region, resulting in an unsettled and less hot pattern. Many locations could fail to reach 90 degrees Tuesday-Thursday due to clouds and scattered to widespread showers/thunderstorms. We will need to monitor the potential for heavier thunderstorms. Localized flooding would be the primary concern. But a few strong to severe thunderstorms couldn`t be ruled out either. The Tuesday-Thursday time frame is a little far out to be talking confidently about severe weather and flood potential. But the overall signal appears favorable for at least some heavier showers and thunderstorms during the Tuesday-Thursday time frame. Self && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 MVFR cigs are expected to develop across our northern zones overnight, before trending VFR by mid-morning. Light and variable winds overnight, are expected to increase out of the south during the morning hours. By afternoon, winds are expected to back to the southeast. An isolated afternoon shra/tsra cannot be ruled out. No rain mentioned in the TAF as of now due to the expected isolated coverage. && .MARINE... Issued at 1125 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Light to moderate onshore flow and relatively low seas are expected through the middle of next week. However, seas could be around 5 feet in the offshore open Gulf waters at times.Beach conditions over the weekend will feature an enhanced rip current risk along with hotter than normal temperatures. The pattern turns more unsettled next week, with an increasing chance of rain and thunderstorms. Heavier thunderstorms capable of locally higher winds and seas are possible, especially starting Tuesday through the end of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 93 76 96 77 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 93 78 96 78 / 10 0 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 88 82 89 82 / 10 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233355 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:36 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 324 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening with the greatest areal coverage north of the Connecticut and Rhode Island borders. A few of these storms may become severe and also result in localized flash flooding. Some showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms linger into Saturday with seasonable temperatures making a return and continuing into early next week. Dry conditions expected Sunday heading into Monday before the next chance for some showers arrives on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Key Messages... * Numerous showers & thunderstorms develop this afternoon/early evening...greatest areal coverage north of the CT/RI/MA border * Scattered severe thunderstorms possible with the greatest risk in western/central and northeast MA * Flood Watch issued for western/central and northeast MA as the ingredients support a localized flash flood risk * Time of concern for severe weather is between noon and 10 PM with the highest risk in the 2 PM to 8 PM time frame Details... An active day of weather is on tap for the region later today into this evening. A warm and humid airmass in place will generate modest instability this afternoon. While it will not be as hot as yesterday...highs will reach into the 80s with dewpoints in the 60s. SPC SREF is indicating decent probs that Capes may reach or exceed 2000 J/KG today. This instability will be combining with a shortwave and frontal/sea breeze boundaries to generate numerous showers and thunderstorms. While we can not rule out an isolated shower/t-storm this morning...expect the main show to be in the noon to 10 pm time frame and particularly between 2 and 8 pm. The instability is favorable for severe weather this afternoon and evening...but there are some limiting factors too. The low level wind fields are quite weak and the effective shear is marginal. However...it does appear we may see a swath of 0-6 km shear reach 25- 35 knots with the focus north of the CT/RI/MA borders. That certainly is enough for some storm organization along with the threat of scattered severe thunderstorms. In fact...the HRRR/RRFS/NAM/HREF all showing solid UH swaths in the 2-5 KM layer which is often a good signal for severe weather. There also is good support from various machine learning guidance which highlights those areas in the best severe weather probs. This guidance also indicates that the main threat will be localized damaging wind gusts. There is a secondary concern for hail with decent mid level lapse rates. Given the weak low level wind fields...feel the tornadic risk is quite low which is also reflected in the machine learning guidance. We also should mention that the forcing/deeper moisture is better to the north of the CT/RI borders...but mid level lapse rates are steeper to the south on the order of 7 C/KM. K index values though indicate limited moisture...so any convection that is able to develop will be isolated to scattered at best. However...given the steeper mid level lapse rates and better instability any storm that is able to develop may become severe. And perhaps the greatest risk of hail from near I-90 to just south of the CT/RI border...where forcing overlaps a bit better with the better ML Lapse rates. Lastly...given Pwats exceeding 1.5 inches and relatively light low level wind fields pockets of torrential rainfall will result in a localized flash flood threat. The EMC HREF is indicating some probs of the 6 hour QPF exceeding the 10 and even low probs of exceeding the 100 year ARI. The HREF indicates 30 percent probs of rainfall exceeding 3" inside 3 hours...which is often a good signal for the potential of a localized flash flood threat. Given the above...we have opted to issue a Flash Flood Watch for western/central and interior northeast MA this afternoon into this evening. The risk for 2-3" of rain falling inside 2 hours will bring the potential for localized flash flooding...particularly if it were to occur over a vulnerable urban center. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Key Messages... * Bulk of the showers & t-storms diminish late this evening * Additional showers/iso t-storms are expected Sat but severe weather is not expected...highs mainly between 75 and 80 Details... Tonight... The bulk of the showers and thunderstorms will wind down later this evening as the shortwave departs coupled with the loss of diurnal heating/instability. While a few spot showers will remain possible overnight...another round of showers/isolated t-storms may begin to work into our area toward daybreak Sat with the cold front. Low temps tonight will mainly be between 60 and 65 degrees. Saturday.... The approaching cold front will cross the region on Saturday. The forcing along the front will bring another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms to the region. The instability will be considerably less than today...with MLCapes generally under 1000 J/KG. Therefore...the severe weather threat on Sat is rather low. High temps will mainly be in the 75 to 80 degree range. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Messages: * Dry Sunday into Monday before more rain is possible Tuesday * Clearing Wednesday into Thursday with highs reaching the low to mid 80s Details... Drier air moves in post-FROPA Sunday, bringing a break from the rain through early Monday. Onshore flow Sunday afternoon will also bring some relief from the heat to east coast areas. Sunday`s high temps likely in the upper 70s to low 80s across the interior, especially in the Connecticut River Valley, with the eastern coast and Islands in the low 70s. Onshore flow continues through Monday, allowing for a lengthier period of cooling and allowing for high temps to remain in the low 70s across southern New England. Some guidance is indicating a low moving to the northeast off the coast to our south on Monday, bringing some scattered showers to the Cape and Islands; however, there is also a good chance this low misses completely and those areas remain dry. Southeast flow makes a return for Tuesday, along with more rain chances. A warm front is expected to move through Tuesday, placing the region in the warm sector and elevating surface moisture, once again bringing rain chances. With rain looking possible for most of the day, highs are likely to remain in the 70s. A cold front passes through Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, shifting winds back to the west and ushering in some drier air. Drier and clearer conditions look likely Wednesday heading into Thursday post-FROPA. With the clearing skies, high temps look to rebound into the 80s for the midweek period. Lows through the extended period not expected to change much from night to night, remaining mostly in the 50s and 60s across southern New England. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update... Today...Moderate confidence. Varying conditions across the region with mainly VFR conditions this morning. Numerous showers and t-storms are expected to develop this afternoon into this evening with the focus for them across western/central and northeast MA. These storms will be capable of producing pockets of torrential rainfall and locally strong wind gusts. This activity will result in MVFR-IFR conditions with brief LIFR conditions too possible in the stronger t-storms. Winds generally less than 10 knots from varying directions across the region. Tonight...Moderate confidence. The bulk of the showers and thunderstorms will wind down later this evening as the shortwave departs. However...enough low moisture is present to allow cigs/vsbys to drop into the MVFR-IFR levels tonight across much of the region. Light S winds. Saturday...Moderate confidence. The cold front will approach the region from the west on Sat. This will bring another round of showers and isolated t-storm to the region. MVFR conditions will dominate but some improvement to VFR levels may occur later in the day across the interior. Light SW winds will begin to shift to the NW behind the cold front by late in the day. BOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. Sea breeze kicks in by 12z/13z. Greatest risk for showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the terminal will be in the 18z to 00z time frame. BDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. The main risk for showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the terminal will be in the 18z to 00z time frame. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. Sunday Night through Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Saturday...High confidence. The gradient will remain weak enough to keep winds/seas below small craft advisory thresholds today and tonight. We think the bulk of the convection will remain to the north and west of our waters later today and tonight...but will have to watch the waters adjacent to northeast MA. The other issue for mariners will be areas of fog developing tonight...so vsbys may be reduced especially across the southern waters. A wave of low pressure will track near the Benchmark on Sat as a cold front approaches the waters from the west. Some showers and perhaps an isolated t-storm may accompany this front. Although winds will remain below criteria...southerly swell may result in 5+ seas developing on Sat and later shifts may need to consider headlines. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for MAZ002>006-008>012-026. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1233354 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:27 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 322 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather returns later today with the exception of a few afternoon storms in the Piedmont. A cold front approaches tonight and moves into the region Saturday, before lingering over the area Sunday. This will bring a return to chances of primarily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Drier weather returns on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 320 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Showers are expected across far southern VA and NE NC this morning, with lower chances elsewhere. - A few thunderstorms could reach the VA Piedmont this afternoon/evening before weakening as they approach I-95. Early morning wx analysis shows mostly zonal flow aloft over the eastern CONUS, with a weak surface low/shortwave tracking across NC with a stronger shortwave in the Plains. Radar mosaic shows some light rain continuing near the coast. The low will continue to track east through NC and eventually offshore today. Can`t rule out showers near the SE VA/NE NC coast this morning, but additional rain amounts will average 0.20" or less. Clouds will be slow to clear near the coast...while skies become partly to mostly sunny inland today. Temps will rise well into the 80s near and west of I-95, with highs only around 80F near the coast due to the persistent cloud cover. While most of the day will be dry, numerous tstms will develop well to our W/NW (across the mountains). There is a chc that a few storms reach the VA Piedmont by late aftn/early evening...but any convection likely weakens as it approaches the I-95 Corridor as instability will diminish the farther east one goes. With decent sfc heating/upper 60s dew pts across western portions of the FA resulting in 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, can`t completely rule out 40- 55 mph wind gusts in the strongest storms. Convection diminishes after 9-10 PM with dry, seasonable, and humid wx expected tonight with lows in the mid-upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 320 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected on both Saturday and Sunday afternoon/evening. - A few of the storms may be strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts being the main threat. The best chance of stronger storms is along and south of I-64 on both days. The progressive pattern with zonal flow aloft continues through the weekend, and a couple of fast moving shortwaves will track over the area (leading to unsettled wx). The first shortwave slides across the region Saturday morning, which could produce some showers. However, a cold front will approach from the NNW later in the day and cross part of the area Saturday night. Meanwhile, a stronger shortwave aloft (and more significant height falls) arrives later in the day with the approaching cold front. Temperatures rise well into the 80s to near 90F across the southern 2/3 of the FA, with upper 60s-70F dew points expected. This will allow for ample instability (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) along and south of I-64 despite meager mid- level lapse rates (6C/km), while the shortwave aloft/height falls will provide the necessary lift for convection to develop by 2-3 PM initially across central/eastern VA. Scattered to numerous tstms then move to the SE during the late aftn/evening before exiting the area after 10-11 PM. Unsure how much in the way of storms form across northern areas (from LKU-SBY) where sfc heating won`t be as strong. But, have moderate confidence in at least scattered tstms along and south of I-64. One factor that could suppress convection on Saturday is if morning clouds/showers linger long enough to impact convective initiation during the aftn/evening. Though will note that most of the CAMs shows at least scattered convection during the aftn/evening. With the instability in place combined with 30-40 kt of effective shear, strong to severe tstms are possible. The highest threat is south of I-64 where SPC has a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for severe wx, while the Marginal Risk has been maintained farther N. Still looks like primarily a damaging wind threat with storm mode likely becoming linear...although the initial cells may be able to produce small hail (not as confident in large hail given high freezing levels and 6C/km mid-level lapse rates). The coverage of precip should drop off overnight Saturday as the cold front sags S. Lows Saturday night will mainly be in the mid 60s to around 70F. For Sunday, the front moves back north and likely stalls somewhere over the CWA as secondary low pressure develops and tracks from W-E along it. Another robust shortwave aloft is progged to quickly cross the region during the late aftn-evening. A few showers are possible Sunday morning, with scattered-numerous tstms expected once again during the aftn/evening. Similar to Saturday, the main focus for severe wx will be along and south of that front (which likely means southern VA/NE NC). Instability will be somewhat limited north of I-64 where forecast highs are in the upper 70s-80F. The most likely timing for severe wx is from 2-10 PM Sunday. The mid level flow on Sunday will likely be a bit stronger than what it will be on Sat (especially S), with similar amounts of instability expected. SPC has introduced a Slight Risk across SE VA/NE NC, with a Marginal Risk farther north. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat, but large hail can`t completely be ruled out. There will also be the potential for locally heavy rainfall/localized flooding given PWATs remaining elevated and with the front nearly parallel to the mid level flow. Precip quickly exits after 10-11 PM Sun night once again with lows falling into the mid-upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 320 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Mainly dry Monday. - Unsettled conditions return Tuesday, with mostly dry weather expected by Wednesday. By Monday, PW anomalies return to near normal with the front washing out across NC, so PoPs are mainly 20% or less, with the exception of 20-30% near the Albemarle Sound. Scattered-numerous aftn/evening tstms are once again expected on Tuesday as moisture increases ahead of another (fairly strong) shortwave trough. There will likely at least some sort of organized severe threat given that the mid-level flow will be 30-45 kt with a decent amount of instability to work with. By Wednesday, high pressure and drier conditions potentially return to the region as the trough axis moves offshore. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through the medium range period. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 115 AM EDT Friday... VFR conditions prevail at RIC/SBY early this morning, with MVFR to IFR (mainly due to CIGs) across SE VA/NE NC. Light rain has been confined to PHF/ORF/ECG...and this will continue to be the case this morning as weak low pressure tracks across eastern NC and eventually offshore. CIGS will gradually lower between now and sunrise, with a period of IFR expected at ECG between 08-14z, with IFR possible at PHF/ORF during this timeframe. No worse than MVFR CIGs are expected at RIC, with VFR through the period at SBY. CIGs improve to MVFR by midday and scatter out during the aftn across the southeastern terminals. Isolated- scattered tstms will develop across the mountains/piedmont this aftn but should weaken before reaching RIC this evening. Winds remain aob 10 kt through the period. A cold front will approach from the NW Saturday bringing a 50-60% chc of showers/tstms. This front is expected to linger in vicinity of the region Sunday with a high chc of showers/tstms continuing. The latest guidance shows the front pushing S of the region Monday. Showers/storms return Tuesday aftn/evening. && .MARINE... As of 320 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - A weak low pressure system develops along the NC coast this morning and moves offshore. - Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the period though winds may gust to 15 to 20 kt at times. - Potential for thunderstorms across the waters Saturday and Sunday. Morning weather analysis shows a high pressure off the east coast and a low pressure system now developing off the coast of VA/NC. The low pressure system this morning continues to bring light rain showers across the bay and northern ocean zones. Due to the weakness of the system winds remain out of the east around 5 to 10 kt with gusts upwards of 15 kt. Waves remain low with wave heights around 1 ft across the bay and 2 to 3 ft across the ocean, with occasional 4ft waves across the south. Later this morning and through the rest of the day the low pressure system will begin to track north. This will allow for the chances of showers to decrease through the late morning hours. In addition, as the low begins to strengthen winds will increase out of the east around 10 kt with gusts of 15 kt. With the onshore flow wave heights will also increase to 1 to 2 ft across the bay and 3 to 4 ft in the ocean. By this evening as the low tracks further off the coast winds will shift out of the NW then by Saturday morning will quickly shift back out of the SSE. Winds will still remain between 5 to 10 kt through tonight and into tomorrow morning. The overall weekend is looking quite optimal across the waters as seas and winds are expected to remain below SCA criteria. Will note, there is the potential for showers and thunderstorms across the waters this weekend and any strong shower and thunderstorm will be dealt with a SMW. The main threat with these thunderstorms will be gusty winds. As of this forecast update the best chance of thunderstorms Saturday look to be in the southern bay zone and south. Sunday looks to be more wide spread across the waters. Trends will continue to be monitored for timing of these potential showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Moderate rip currents remain in the forecast for all beaches through this weekend as onshore flow will remain persistent through today and Sunday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1233353 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:03 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 246 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Another round of diurnally driven thunderstorm activity is expected across the area. With the upper level low out of the region, and the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge building in, coverage should be a little less widespread today compared to previous days. Low-level flow will also be light and out of the west today so much of the activity will generally form within the vicinity and ahead of the seabreeze and gradually push inland through the day. Warmer temperatures will allow greater instability to develop and the presence of slightly drier air aloft could allow stronger wind gusts in storms this afternoon so a brief severe storm can`t be ruled out. This threat would be greatest along any favorable storm mergers and/or outflow boundaries that allow storms to gain considerable depth. Activity winds down after sunset tonight and only concerns through the overnight would be patchy fog. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Heading into this weekend, upper level ridging centered across Mexico and the western Gulf will keep us in westerly flow aloft. A few shortwaves embedded in the westerly flow will move just north of us, but remain close enough to keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for both Saturday and Sunday. Timing looks to be fairly typical for summer with the chance starting in the morning hours near the coast, then spreading inland through the afternoon. This is not expected to be a washout all day, but thunderstorm activity is expected to be scattered around the area, typical of summer. High temperatures are expected to generally range from the upper 80s to near 90 along the coast to the lower to middle 90s inland. Overnight lows are expected to be mostly in the lower to middle 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Thursday) Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Heading into early next week, an upper level trough is expected to dive into the Great Lakes region with the local area near the base of the trough. This will keep westerly flow aloft and a series of shortwaves sufficient to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. A weak surface boundary is expected to push southward into the northern portions of our area Sunday night into Monday morning, providing an additional focus for showers and thunderstorms that could last deeper into the overnight on Sunday night than is typical for summer. Deep layer shear is actually fairly impressive for early June standards at around 30 knots, which is near the 90th percentile. We`ll need to keep an eye on the potential for a cluster of strong to severe storms to organize Sunday evening into Monday morning with gusty winds, particularly across our northern counties. A repeat performance looks possible Monday evening into Tuesday morning as well. For the remainder of the week, the weak boundary will not make it through the area given that it`s early June now, and we`ll see a continued muggy environment with precipitable water values in the 1.7 to 2 inch range, which is above average for early June. The upper level trough over the Great Lakes will shift eastward, but we`ll continue with light westerly to southwesterly flow aloft locally, and coupled with the above average moisture, shower and thunderstorm chances will remain elevated through the week. The NBM PoPs of 80-90 percent every day may be a bit overdone, but the overall theme of daily scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms looks reasonable. Temperatures are expected to be within a few degrees of average for early June, generally lower 90s for highs and low to mid 70s for lows. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 During the early morning hours, low ceilings to MVFR/IFR are possible, especially where rain fell over the previous day. MVFR and brief IFR cigs should lift to VFR by mid/late morning if they develop. During the afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop along the seabreeze and across inland areas through the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Surface high pressure in the Atlantic will maintain a light to moderate southerly to southwesterly breeze the next several days. Seas will generally run between 2 to 3 feet. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast for the next several days. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Rain chances will be a touch lower today and have a more diurnal trend compared to recent days where activity got an earlier start. Relatively high minimum afternoon humidities and light winds will keep fire weather concerns mostly low the next few days. Only concerns through the next few days will be dispersions on the higher side and gusty/erratic winds in the vicinity of any thunderstorm activity. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 There are no significant changes from the previous forecast. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances remain through the weekend into early next week. Locally heavy rain is possible within any of those showers or storms thanks to precipitable water values (PWATs) between 1.7" to 2.0", or near the 90th percentile for early-mid June. 3hr Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) remains between 2.5" to 3.5" in the more urban areas and 3" to 5.5" in our more rural locations. These values are forecast to decrease the next few days thanks to those daily rain chances. Nuisance flooding of urban and poor drainage areas are the biggest concern, especially as we see the soil continue to moisten with each round of showers and storms. Fortunately, area rivers and streams remain in good shape with gradual rises possible as more and more rain falls across the region. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 91 74 92 74 / 70 30 70 20 Panama City 88 77 89 78 / 30 10 50 20 Dothan 91 73 93 74 / 50 20 50 20 Albany 90 73 93 74 / 40 20 50 20 Valdosta 91 73 93 74 / 60 30 60 20 Cross City 90 72 91 73 / 50 10 50 20 Apalachicola 87 76 87 78 / 50 10 50 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ108-112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233352 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:03 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 258 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Remnant mid level moisture convergent boundary remains across west central Florida...and combined with weak onshore flow may allow a few showers to develop over the coastal waters during the next couple of hours which could advect locally onshore around sunrise. Any showers that manage to push onshore will likely dissipate rather quickly as they push inland. The remainder of today, high pressure surface and aloft will build over the region. However, the main phenomena to impact sensible weather today and through the weekend will be a SAL that will be move over the region. This will advect much drier air aloft over the forecast area which will significantly inhibit convection each day through the weekend. POPs will likely run significantly below NBM guidance with only slight chance to low end chance pops each day. Also, increased the max temps a degree or two each day as the NBM high pops/cloud cover likely held temps down a bit. Could even be a bit conservative with max temps as they could be even a bit warmer than currently forecast should the dry air aloft mix down during the afternoon hours...with this most likely happening on Saturday and Sunday. Early next week, the SAL will begin to give way on Monday with deep layer moisture gradually recovering. The surface ridge axis will remain well south of the forecast area with onshore west to southwest boundary layer flow. This will allow the west coast sea breeze boundary to push inland rather quickly...with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing over the coastal counties during the morning/early afternoon hours, pushing inland and increasing slightly in areal coverage over the interior during the mid/late afternoon. The surface ridge axis will begin to lift north across the central Florida peninsula on Tuesday. This will likely cause the west/east coast sea breeze boundaries to collide over the interior during the late afternoon with showers/thunderstorms being enhanced along the boundary collision/highest pops. On Wednesday, the surface ridge axis will continue to lift north with southeast boundary layer flow developing across west central and southwest Florida. This will aid in holding the west coast sea breeze boundary closer to the coast...with the east coast sea breeze colliding with the west coast sea breeze during the late afternoon enhancing shower/thunderstorm activity over the coastal counties late in the day. Although deep layer moisture will increase, trend below NBM POPs all of next week as overall moisture profiles suggest generally climo pops area wide. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Predominately VFR conditions will prevail today. Slight chance of a shower vcnty PIE/TPA/SRQ around sunrise this morning with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop this afternoon with best chance vcnty LAL with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs. && .MARINE... Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 High pressure will hold over the waters through the period with winds below cautionary levels each day. Main hazard through the weekend will be isolated to scattered mainly late night/early morning showers and thunderstorms. Next week, timing of shower/thunderstorm activity will shift to the evening hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels for the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 79 92 79 / 30 10 20 10 FMY 94 76 94 76 / 30 10 20 10 GIF 94 75 95 75 / 30 10 20 10 SRQ 91 77 90 77 / 20 10 20 10 BKV 93 71 93 72 / 30 10 20 10 SPG 89 78 89 79 / 30 10 20 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1233351 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:54 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 249 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 - Hot and very humid conditions are expected from this weekend into early next week. - Hazy skies this weekend due to the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). - A Moderate Risk for rip currents continues at area beaches. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Today-Tonight...Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will drift southward towards the Bahamas today, dragging the ridge axis into south Florida. Meanwhile, the upper level high over south Texas will expand its axis farther eastward through the Gulf, towards the Florida peninsula. Ridging through the column and the continued influence of the SAL give confidence that the NBM PoPs are overzealous once again today. While slightly cooler than yesterday, forecast 500mb temperatures around -6.5 to -7C and modest lapse rates do not support the widespread 50-70% PoPs from the NBM. Instead, have trended towards MOS and CONSAll guidance, with PoPs generally 30-40% across the area. CAMs suggest the highest coverage once again occurring along and north of the I-4 corridor, with the lowest chances across southern portions of the forecast area. Similarly to Thursday, should a storm be able to take advantage of drier air in the mid-levels, wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible, along with the threat for lightning strikes and locally heavy rainfall. Any showers or storms will peak in activity from mid to late afternoon, then drift off of the coast into the evening hours with dry conditions then prevailing overnight. With the ridge axis south of the forecast area, southwesterly flow is forecast to prevail across east central Florida. This will lead to a more dominant west coast sea breeze, helping to pin the east coast breeze at or near the coast. Thus, little relief from hot temperatures is expected this afternoon, with highs reaching the lower 90s. Lingering moisture across the area will also lead to humid conditions and heat indices from 100-105 degrees. Warm temperatures will continue overnight, with lows in the lower to mid-70s. This Weekend...The pattern generally continues through the weekend, with the ridge axis remaining south of the local area, though the ridge over the western Atlantic will elongate/drift eastward through the period. Slightly drier air (PWATs closer to 1.5" than 1.75") will be the main difference. Combined with continued warm (~-7C) 500mb temperatures, have continued to undercut the NBM through the weekend. PoPs 20-30% Saturday and 30-40% Sunday. Increasingly drier air could support a few stronger wind gusts, should storms develop and be able to take advantage of it. Temperatures will creep higher into Sunday, with highs reaching the lower to mid-90s. Continued southwesterly flow will limit the inland progression of the east coast sea breeze. Heat indices remaining around 98-103 degrees. Next Week...The ridge continues to move eastward into the Atlantic next week, as the ridge axis drifts northward through the local area. Meanwhile, a series of weak upper-level shortwaves are forecast to pass through the Deep South. As the ridge axis moves northward, higher moisture will return to east central Florida, advected in by southerly flow. The east coast sea breeze will drift increasingly inland, with a collision over the interior. Higher shower and storm chances return, though likely not with enough coverage to support the 90% produced by the NBM. Thus, have gone with a more seasonable 50-60% each day next week. Temperatures will remain hot through at least Tuesday, before a more dominant east coast sea breeze develops into late week. Highs remaining in the lower to mid-90s early in the week, then upper 80s to lower 90s for the rest of the period. Heat indices 100-105 remain forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Generally favorable boating conditions through mid-week next week, as high pressure lingers near to the local area. The main threat will be scattered offshore- moving showers and storms in the late afternoon and evening hours each day. South to southwesterly flow will back southeasterly along the coast each afternoon and increase to 10-15 kts as the sea breeze develops, but remains pinned through at least this weekend. Seas 1-3 ft. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 135 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Mainly VFR conds through the TAF period. Light W/SW flow 5-7 kts develops after sunrise, shifting southeast at the coastal terminals behind the sea breeze btwn 17Z-19Z. Will maintain VCTS over northern terminals aft 18Z, incl MCO/SFB/DAB/MLB. Some of these will prob be upgraded to TEMPOs. Less confidence for SHRA/TSRA across southern terminals so no precip mention VRB-SUA for now. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 72 93 73 / 50 10 40 10 MCO 93 74 94 74 / 40 10 30 10 MLB 90 74 91 74 / 40 20 30 10 VRB 90 73 91 74 / 30 20 30 20 LEE 91 74 92 75 / 40 10 30 10 SFB 93 74 94 74 / 40 10 30 10 ORL 93 75 94 76 / 40 10 30 10 FPR 90 72 91 73 / 30 10 30 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1233350 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:21 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 215 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 215 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Westerly steering flow and with a moist atmosphere (PWATs in the 1.6" to 1.9" range) will continue scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms across the region as the East Coast sea breeze remains pinned fairly close to the Atlantic Coast to the East of the I-95 corridor. Max temps will push into the lower 90s area wide as the westerly flow pushes the heat all the way to the Atlantic Beaches along the peak heat indices around 100F. Scattered strong to locally severe storms still possible during the afternoon hours with gusty winds and heavy rainfall, but slightly warmer temps aloft should limit any widespread severe weather threat. Best chances for any severe storms will be when convection interacts with the East Coast sea breeze front stalled near the Atlantic Coast and I-95 corridor. Convection will fade with loss of heating just after sunset this evening with fair skies overnight along with mild temps in the lower 70s inland and mid/upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 215 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 High surface pressure over the area through the weekend will bring winds out of the west to southwest, helping to pull in moisture in from the Gulf. This moisture coupled with diurnal heating will help drive afternoon convection through the weekend. The Storm Prediction Center has most of southeast Georgia under a marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms and areas north of Jesup and Alma Georgia under a slight risk (2 out of 5) for severe storms Saturday as shortwaves are expected to move through the area, allowing for the development of stronger storms. The main concerns with these stronger storms will be gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall. High daytime temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows dipping into the low to mid 70s. Early morning patchy fog will be possible in areas that received rain each morning. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 215 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 High pressure and moisture from the Gulf continues into the long term, helping to keep the wet weather pattern going. Seabreeze convergence and diurnal heating will be the main driver for the afternoon convection. Some stronger storms will be possible as upper level shortwaves pulse across the area. Daytime high temperatures will be above seasonal average at the start of the week and cool to near normal by mid week with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s over southeast Georgia and low to mid 90s over northeast Florida. Overnight lows will be in the low 70s at inland locations with areas along the coast staying slightly warmer. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 109 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 MVFR fog at VQQ this morning, along with MVFR CIGS at SSI, otherwise mainly VFR with high clouds at the rest of the NE FL TAF sites with light SW flow. Expect at least SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS to develop in morning diurnal heating in the 11-15Z time frame at all TAF sites with CIGS around 2500 ft at times. Expect at least scattered storms to develop in the W-SW flow this afternoon and have added TEMPO groups at all TAF sites, in the 18-22Z time frame at GNV and 19-23Z time frame at other TAF sites for gusty winds to 25 knots and MVFR VSBYS/CIGS. Convection should fade around sunset with leftover mid/high debris clouds through the rest of the TAF period from 01-06Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 215 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Weak low pressure situated over the Carolinas today will push off the North Carolina Outer Banks tonight. Atlantic high pressure ridge will be extended across the Florida peninsula for the next several days. Prevailing southwesterly winds are expected through the weekend. Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will push eastward across our region through the weekend, mostly during the afternoon and evening hours. Strong to severe storms will be possible this weekend and early next week, mainly across the Georgia waters. Small Craft Advisory headlines are not expected this weekend or early next week. Rip Currents: Generally low risk of rips expected today into the weekend as offshore flow will keep the East Coast sea breeze weak during the afternoon hours and surf/breakers in the 1-2 ft range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 90 72 92 73 / 40 20 50 30 SSI 88 76 92 76 / 40 20 50 30 JAX 92 73 94 74 / 50 20 50 20 SGJ 91 73 94 74 / 50 30 60 20 GNV 92 72 94 73 / 40 10 60 10 OCF 92 72 93 73 / 40 10 50 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1233349 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 206 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Active weather pattern continues as multiple frontal boundaries and disturbances impact the region. A few storms may become strong to severe severe this weekend, with damaging winds expected to be the primary hazard. A brief reprieve in heat then returns early next week in the wake of a strong cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Through Daybreak: GOES-E fog products show low/mid-level clouds are slowly developing across the area as high clouds push east. High-res near term guidance is mixed on how widespread any stratus and possibly fog will become with 1000 hPa condensation pressure deficits running at levels only marginally favorable for meaningful fog development. While some localized patchy dense fog with localized vsbys 1/4 mile or less can not be ruled out, significant fog seems unlikely at this time. A number of AWOS sites across the interior may eventually drop below 1 mile, but these may not be truly represent prevailing conditions. Visibility trends are being carefully monitored. Through This Evening: A more typical summertime environment will become established across the region today as subtropical ridging centered over South Texas builds east. The low-level flow will remain somewhat westerly today in the wake of low pressure exiting the Outer Banks and given the orientation of the ridge aloft. Modified RAP soundings do show modest to locally strong mixed-layer instability developing during the afternoon (MLCAPE values 2000-2500 J/kg) as highs warm to near 90, but the mean lower tropospheric flow is forecast to remain westerly for much of the day, only backing at the surface closer to the coast during the late afternoon as a pinned sea breeze circulation tries to form. This will limit low-level convergence at first with convection being mostly forced by strong surface heating. Once isolated showers/tstms form, there is a potential for additional convection to pop as corridors of convergence concentrate along convective outflows and possible collisions. The sea breeze may play a factor late as showers/tstms try to work closer to the immediate coast, but the CAMs are not overly excited about this scenario suggesting even convergence along the sea breeze itself could remain fairly weak. 850 hPa theta-e values look highest in a west-east oriented ribbon south of I-16 and this is where the best coverage of showers/tstms are expected to occur. Pops 20-40% were highlighted this afternoon into early this evening, highest south of I-16. Convection will wind down quickly this evening with the onset of nocturnal stabilization. The mid-levels have dried out considerably since yesterday. Soundings support DCAPE values peaking ~1000 J/kg by mid-late afternoon. This could support an isolated severe tstm or two with damaging winds and cloud-to-ground lightning being the primary hazards. Some small hail could develop with WBZ heights just below 12 kft, but the strong surface heating will tend to melt hail as it falls and likely keeping it below 1". Weak 0-6km bulk shear suggests any severe tstms will be pulse in nature with possibly some brief, transient organization occurring at times where updrafts become enhanced where convective outflows collide. Overnight: Dry conditions will prevail. There are indications that a cluster of showers/tstms with origins from northern Georgia could make a run for far interior Southeast Georgia after midnight. Most of this activity should dissipate prior to reaching this far the east and southeast, but this will have to watched closely. For now, no mentionable pops were included for the overnight period. It will be rather warm for early June with lows only dropping into the lower 70s well inland to around 80 at the beaches and Downtown Charleston--more typical of deep summer. These lows could challenge the record high minimums for 7 June, especially at the Charleston Intl Airport (KCHS) and Downtown Charleston/Waterfront Park (KCXM). See the climate section below for additional information. It should be noted that the unusually warm temperatures tonight yield a moderate (level 2/orange) heat risk for parts of the coast, including Downtown Charleston. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Balmy conditions will prevail this weekend, as afternoon highs rise into the lower 90s in combination with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. As a result, expect heat indices to rise into the upper 90s to lower 100s, the warmest along and east of I-95. While not uncommon for this of year, still encourage everyone to remain hydrated and take breaks or rest in the shade as needed. Given the moist environment and diurnal heating expected to take place, can`t rule out seeing afternoon/evening showers and storms. In regard to the severe potential, latest soundings for Saturday do show ample CAPE (~1000 to 2000 J/kg), 0-6km bulk shear around 25 to 30 kt, and DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg. Lapse rates remain rather meager though, with values around 6 - 7 degC/km in the low to mid levels. Thus, with these values in place, could certainly see a few storms capable of producing damaging gusts. Main caveat to this is timing. Latest CAMs show a MCS progged to push across the TN Valley Saturday evening, perhaps reaching our area near/after 00z. Not entirely confident if this system will be able to sustain itself, as some guidance hints that it will fizzle out before reaching our area. In the event that it does reach us, this would place the main line of storms in an environment with weakening instability/shear as the diurnal heat source wanes. Dependent on how things pan out, could see some lingering convection by daybreak Sunday. This would put a slight damper on additional development later that afternoon as the atmosphere works to stabilize itself. However, if the MCS fizzles out before reaching us Saturday night, think the better chance for seeing severe weather would occur Sunday afternoon/evening as a similar environment unfolds. Otherwise, look for upper level troughing across the Ohio River Valley to deepen Monday as an upper level low build over the Great Lakes region. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Expect the aforementioned upper level trough to push eastward Monday night into Tuesday, bringing with it renewed chances for precipitation. Afternoon highs will also be somewhat "cooler" in the wake of its associated sfc cold front. Currently have temperatures warming into the upper 80s to lower 90s for the remainder of the extended period. A typical diurnal summertime pattern of scattered afternoon showers and storms will also continue during this time as the seabreeze pushes inland. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 06/06z Aviation Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Low and mid-level clouds are expected to expand with time as a band of high clouds aloft pushes east. It is unclear if widespread stratus will develop with recent near term guidance essentially split on its potential. Expect mainly low- end VFR cigs to develop at all terminals over the next few hours with potential for a few hours of MVFR just before daybreak. TEMPO groups were utilized to reflect this trend. VFR will dominate shortly after sunrise with isolated to scattered showers/tstms developing as early as late morning and continuing into the afternoon hours. Coverage looks greatest over Southeast Georgia, but much of this may stay south of KSAV. For now, VCTS was highlighted 17-20z, but the need for a TEMPO group will be reassessed with the 12z TAFs. For KCHS and KJZI, coverage looks to remain a bit more isolated so impact probabilities look too low to justly a mention at this time. Extended Aviation Outlook: Typical summertime convection will bring periodic flight restrictions through Monday. && .MARINE... Through Daybreak: Elevated southwest winds 15-20 will veer more westerly and diminish as daybreak approaches. Today and Tonight: West winds will back to the southwest later this afternoon as pinned sea breeze develops along the beaches. Some slight surging near the sea breeze along the land/sea interface and in Charleston Harbor could occur late, but winds should go no higher than 15 kt. Otherwise, winds will average 10-15 kt with seas subsiding to 2-3 ft. Tonight, southwest winds 10-15 kt will prevail with seas 2-3 ft. Saturday through Monday: Expect west south-westerly winds to prevail throughout the period, with sustained speeds between 10 to 20 kt. Winds could become a bit breezy at times, especially over the weekend, with gusts up to 25 kt possible as the sea breeze moves inland. While SCA are not expected at this time, will continue to monitor the Charleston County coastal waters, including the Charleston Harbor in the event that guidance increases or actual winds over perform. Otherwise, look for seas to range between 2 to 4 ft throughout the period. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 7: KCHS: 75/2021 KCXM: 79/2021 June 8: KCHS: 76/1980 KCXM: 78/2021 KSAV: 79/1881 June 9: KCHS: 77/1978 KSAV: 77/1877 June 11: KCHS: 76/2020 KSAV: 76/2010 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1233347 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:09 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1252 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Now Through Friday... Morning observational data indicated that deep moisture remained over much of the forecast area, and especially across locations along and east of the I-65 corridor. Daytime heating and increasing low level destabilization has allowed for numerous showers to develop across southwest and south-central Alabama and across the western Florida Panhandle. There will be a concentration of showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm along a weak sea breeze circulation which remains just inland from the coast. Mostly cloudy conditions across much of the area should prevent temperatures from rising much above the lower to middle 80s, except across interior portions of southeast Mississippi this afternoon where convective coverage is lower. This will keep the sea breeze weaker and closer to the coast, but will result in increased low level convergence and an area to focus and concentrate convective development. Weak mid level lapse rates associated with building mid level heights advecting in from the southwest should keep lightning potential isolated today. The moist airmass could support locally heavy rainfall this afternoon with the heaviest showers and in areas where showers repeatedly traverse the same locations. This could lead to some ponding of water in poor drainage and urban areas. Flash flooding is not anticipated at this time. Convective coverage should gradually diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating and weakening of low level instability. The focus for showers should then shift offshore by late evening and through the overnight as the typical diurnal summertime Gulf Coast pattern will result in a developing land breeze circulation south of the coast. By late tonight, any showers produced along the land breeze will lift towards the beaches around sunrise and then back inland across the coastal counties of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through Friday morning. Upper level ridging will become the dominant large scale weather feature along the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. This will result in lower chances for showers and thunderstorms through the day. The main focus for convection will again be along the inland advancing sea breeze, which should be a bit stronger tomorrow as more inland heating is anticipated. Therefore have basically gone with near climatological precipitation chances across the forecast area tomorrow. POPs could be a bit above climatology east of I-65, where deep layer moisture will remain most abundant and subsidence associated with the building upper ridge remains weakest. In these areas, the higher moisture and precipitation chances could lead to additional areas of locally heavy rainfall and more nuisance type flood potential. Dangerous rip currents will continue today through Friday as long period swell continues to push on to the coast and keep conditions favorable for numerous strong rip currents. Therefore the high risk of rip currents will continue. The rip current threat should gradually come down later tomorrow and into the weekend. /JLH Saturday Through Wednesday... The pattern turns unsettled again as we roll into next week. The area remains on the eastern periphery of a ridge aloft over the weekend. Numerous shortwaves ride between the ridge and trough building out of the Plains this weekend, but these features generally remain north of our area. Late in the weekend and into next week, the ridge gets shunted deeper into the Gulf (and eventually retreats westward toward Texas and Mexico) as the expansive trough spills across the eastern half of the CONUS. A parade of shortwaves proceed to dive across the Southeast and Deep South throughout the early and middle part of next week in this pattern. The only persistent feature during this entire timeframe is the presence of the western Atlantic surface high which stretches into the eastern part of the Gulf. Southwesterly to westerly flow at the surface will usher in plenty of moisture to the area next week. A diurnal convective pattern is expected over the weekend with scattered showers and storms in the late afternoon and early evening hours. Rain chances markedly increase in the early to middle part of next week with numerous showers and storms each day. Given the nonstop nature of the shortwaves flowing into the region next week, rain chances will not only be high during the day, but will remain high even into the overnight hours. High POPs and increased cloud cover will mean slightly cooler daytime high temperatures (emphasis on the word slightly) next week. At this point, we are not overly concerned with a threat for severe storms next week. That being said, we continue to monitor the trends for the potential for a few strong to marginally severe storms in the late afternoon and early evening hours on Saturday. Beach Forecast - The rip current risk remains MODERATE over the weekend and falls to a LOW by Monday. The latest rip current probabilities show the risk will remain borderline LOW/MODERATE on both Monday and Tuesday, so we will continue to monitor the trends closely to refine the risk in the coming days. 07/mb && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. A few isolated showers may develop along the coast later this morning, followed by the development of isolated to scattered showers and storms during the afternoon, primarily over interior locations. Expect brief reductions in visibility and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. Light and variable winds this morning will become a light southwesterly wind of around 5 to 10 knots by the afternoon. /96 && .MARINE... Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 A mainly diurnal wind pattern should prevail into the weekend with light offshore flow overnight and light to moderate onshore flow anticipated each day. There will be an uptick in showers and storms later in the weekend and during the overnight period each day. Overall, low impact weather is anticipated outside of any storms where winds and seas will be locally higher. /JLH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 75 92 75 92 73 90 74 88 / 10 30 10 60 60 80 70 90 Pensacola 78 90 79 90 77 88 78 88 / 10 40 20 50 70 70 70 80 Destin 79 90 79 89 78 88 78 88 / 20 50 20 50 70 70 70 80 Evergreen 72 94 73 91 71 89 70 88 / 30 50 30 70 60 80 70 90 Waynesboro 72 94 73 91 70 89 70 86 / 10 30 20 70 50 70 70 80 Camden 72 91 73 88 70 86 69 84 / 20 40 30 80 50 70 70 80 Crestview 72 94 73 92 72 90 72 90 / 30 60 20 70 60 80 60 90 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233346 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1249 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1226 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 - Major to Extreme risk of heat related impacts across portions of South Texas through the weekend. - Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms area wide next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 A mid- to upper-level ridge will continue to dominate the weather pattern across South Texas through the weekend, maintaining strong subsidence that will suppress vertical motion and effectively limit any convective development. The arrival of a Saharan dust plume will further inhibit rainfall potential while also reducing visibilities today through the weekend. This subsident air mass will also support the persistence of hot conditions through early next week, with daily high temperatures running 3-8 degrees above normal. Forecast 850 mb temperatures between 20-25 degC are well above climatological averages, resulting in afternoon highs consistently reaching the triple digits across much of the Coastal Plains and Brush Country and the 90s across the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Bend. South- southeasterly surface flow will continue to draw low-level moisture into the region, enhancing the risk for heat related stress/illness. Heat index values will range from 110-117 across much of the area, especially west of the I-37 corridor where the likelihood of a Major to Extreme heat-related impacts is greatest. As a result, future forecasts may require the issuance of Heat Advisories or Excessive Heat Warnings, specifically Saturday- Monday. Looking ahead to early next week, the aforementioned ridge is expected to shift westward, allowing weak mid-level disturbances to move across the CWA. This pattern shift combined with increasing atmospheric moisture (PWATs rising to 2.0-2.2 inches), will lead to an increase in rain chances (20-70%) from Tuesday-Friday, with the highest chances focused over the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Plains. More limited activity is expected across the far western portions of the Brush Country due to its closer proximity to the lingering ridge. Increased cloud cover and any rainfall will help moderate temperatures slightly, with daytime highs expected to drop into the 90s areawide by midweek. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Generally VFR conditions expected through the TAF cycle. Have included a TEMPO for MVFR ceilings at all terminals from 09Z-15Z. Saharan dust arrives tomorrow leading to some hazy conditions, so have also mentioned this in all TAFs. && .MARINE... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 A moderate (BF 4) onshore breeze can be expected through next week. A plume of Saharan dust moving into the region today will result in hazy skies through this weekend. Rain chances will return Monday night and increase through midweek next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 80 94 79 / 10 0 0 0 Victoria 94 77 95 77 / 10 0 0 0 Laredo 102 79 104 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 98 77 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 91 82 91 82 / 10 0 0 0 Cotulla 103 78 105 78 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 95 78 97 78 / 10 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 89 82 89 82 / 10 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233345 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 148 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track across ENC tonight and push offshore on Friday bringing widespread rainfall to ENC tonight. A cold front will then move through ENC this weekend. Unsettled weather will continue through much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 2215 Thursday...Unsettled day winds to a close through the overnight with weak low pressure working through the FA. Low`s associated warm front bowing Eward over the Crystal Coast and Cape Lookout. With PWAT`s generally around 2+ inches some periods of heavy rain are still possible tonight but the areal coverage of this possibility has drastically shrunk now; best chance along the Crystal Coast and OBX where moisture convergence is greatest along and near the warm front. Flooding threat has ended for the most part. See HYDRO section for more information. As we get later into tonight expect shower and thunderstorm chances to quickly decrease from west to east as the low gradually pushes offshore with its fronts. Have sped this process up with the latest update as well as cutting down on cloud coverage quicker. Lows tonight get into the upper 60s to low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... As of 430 PM Thurs... The trend has certainly been our friend for Fridays forecast. Expect previously mentioned low pressure system to push offshore in the morning bringing any leftover shower activity offshore and away from ENC just after daybreak allowing for skies to clear behind the departing low. With skies clearing and moisture sticking around ENC, expect instability to build back up once again on Friday and as the seabreeze gets started and a weak shortwave pushes overhead Fri afternoon, could sea a few isolated thunderstorms across the CWA. With this in mind, have continued to lower PoP`s across the area to SChc as Hi-Res guidance continues to suggest showers and storms will be very isolated in nature overall. While we will have instability across the region, wind shear will remain weak so not expecting any storm that develops to be particularly strong. Temps will get into the upper 70s to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 430 AM Thursday... Key Messages: - Unsettled weather will continue through much of the long term. - Strong to marginally severe storms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening. A mid level shortwave and sfc cold front approach the area Saturday bringing a threat of showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast. Could see some strong to potentially severe storms late Saturday and Saturday evening with moderate instability (SBCAPE values peak around 1500-2000+ J/Kg) and 0-6k bulk shear around 30-35 kt. PW values remain around 1.75-2" and the thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall as well. Most guidance shows the front stalling across the area Sunday into Monday. Saturday looks to be the warmest day of the long term with highs in the low 90s inland and mid to upper 80s along the coast. An upper low digs into the Great Lakes early next week with cyclonic flow developing across the region and a series of shortwave troughs advecting through the flow aloft keeping unsettled weather in the forecast for the rest of the long term. The airmass remains conditionally unstable with modest shear most days and could see a few strong storms, especially during peak heating. Persistent SW flow aloft will bring a descent tropical moisture feed into the region with PW values around 1.75-2" most days, which is above the 90th percentile for this time of year, keeping a threat of heavy rainfall each day. Temps look to be near to a few degrees above normal early to middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Friday morning/... As of 1:30 AM Friday...The TAF sites are currently a mixed bag of flight cats ranging from VFR to LIFR. Widespread MVFR/IFR flight cats are expected to persist through the overnight hours with CIGs lingering between 300-500 feet and VIS between 3-5 miles. Leaned toward the more pessimistic GLAMP, which shows a very slow recovery after sunrise with CIGs not returning to MVFR until 14-16z. Clouds will gradually lift and dissipate through the afternoon with VFR conditions expected to return by approximately 18z with only high clouds lingering through the rest of the period. Light southerly winds overnight will veer to the northwest shortly after sunrise and back to the southwest by this time tomorrow. LONG TERM /Friday afternoon through Monday/... As of 5 AM Thursday...An unsettled pattern will prevail through much of the long term keeping periods of showers and thunderstorms and sub-VFR conditions across the region. There will also be the threat for late night/early morning fog each day as well. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Friday/... As of 2215 Thursday... ### --- Update --- ### Diamond (41025) reported 6ft seas so will allow existing SCAs to continue as scheduled. Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible through the overnight, especially along warm front currently located around Lookout, which will slowly lift Nward as low tracks NEward through the overnight. --- ### Previous Disco as of 140 PM Thurs...No significant changes to the forecast as widespread rain, isolated thunderstorms and 10-20 kt winds with gusts up to 25 kts remain possible across our waters this evening and tonight as a low pressure system gradually pushes across the area. As the low passes late tonight, 15-20 kt winds will veer to the southwest. 2-4 ft seas will respond by build to 4-6 ft south of Cape Hatteras, and 3-5 ft north of Cape Hatteras. This should allow for a brief period of low end SCA conditions to develop mainly south of Cape Hatteras with any SCA that develops will fall below SCA conditions by daybreak at the latest. Stronger thunderstorms will also have the potential to produce gusty winds and a brief waterspout. Low pushes offshore on Fri morning allowing the pressure gradient to quickly relax and for winds to ease down to 10-15 kts varying from SW south of Cape Hatteras to NW north of Cape Hatteras with seas falling to 3-5 ft across all our coastal waters. LONG TERM /Friday night through Monday/... As of 515 AM Wednesday...A low pressure area will pull away from the area Friday. Marginal SCA conditions south of Cape Hatteras early Friday morning but should be gradually improving through the day. A front approaches the waters Saturday but stalls just inland from the coast before lifting to the north. SW winds around 10-20 kt with seas 3-5 ft expected to prevail Saturday through Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 2230 Thursday...Flooding threat has ended for inland areas. If any flooding were to occur overnight, it would be along the immediate coast and OBX, and would have very limited impacts, i.e. nuisance flooding of poor drainage areas. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ152- 154-156-158. && $$ |
| #1233344 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 141 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 - Hazy skies this afternoon due to the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). - Hot and very humid conditions are expected from this weekend into early next week. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Current-Tonight...Hazy conditions with considerable cloudy skies for most. Still warm with seasonal highs in the U80s to around 90F. Combined with relative humidity expect peak heat indices into the U90s with a few L100s possible. Surface high pressure slowly pushes further seaward, with associated ridge axis aligning across south- central FL. A weakening shortwave impulse traverses north FL later today and tonight and will aid to enhance convection later this afternoon and evening. Highest chances ~70pct across the I-4 corridor where moisture is greatest and lowest chances 30-50pct southward. Warmer temperatures aloft (-6C to -7C) will limit instability and promote weaker lapse rates. Still cannot rule out a strong storm or two, with primary storm impacts occasional to frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds 35-50 mph, and torrential downpours. Greatest storm potential late afternoon thru mid evening. Showers will dissipate thru mid to late evening and push off of the coast with mainly dry conditions across land overnight. Southerly winds up to 10 mph will "back" to ESE/SE along the coast with minimal movement inland as the WCSB will be dominant with the deeper WRLY flow. Speeds increasing to 10-15 mph in association with the ECSB across coastal counties. Conditions humid with overnight mins generally in the U60s to L70s, and possible M70s for barrier islands. Fri-Sun...Slightly Modified...The Atlantic ridge axis drifts southward into southern Florida this weekend, while mid/upper level high pressure develops over southern Texas and spreads eastward across the Gulf. Light southwesterly flow will lead to a more dominant west coast sea breeze, and therefore a collision over the favored eastern half of the peninsula. However, continued warmth in the mid-levels (as warm as -5C) and poor lapse rates above 3km should continue to limit overall convection, despite the collision, steepening low-level lapse rates, and continued high PWATs. Continue to undercut the aggressive NBM PoP numbers through Sunday. The occasional strong wind gust will remain possible, should a storm be able to take advantage of drier air aloft, though CAPE values in general are expected to be fairly low for a typical hot Florida day. Highest chances will remain in the afternoon and early evening, with any convection drifting offshore through the evening hours. Hot temperatures forecast late week into this weekend, especially should convection be surpressed. High temperatures are forecast in the lower 90s area-wide, with southwesterly flow limiting the inland progression of the east coast sea breeze for relief. Continued humid conditions will produce peak heat indices into the 100-106 degree range. Be sure to include heat safety into any weekend outdoor plans. Never leave children or pets unattended in a car for ANY period of time. Overnight lows are forecast in the lower to mid-70s with conditions humid. Mon-Thu...Modified...The surface high pressure ridge axis remains entrenched over southern Florida into next week, but does weaken and begins to lift northward as the parent high pressure cell weakens and pushes further seaward. There will be a few passing upper-level shortwaves north of the local area, though mid-level high pressure does strengthen and retrogrades toward the FL peninsula from the western Atlc. Slightly cooler mid-level temperatures, combined with modest upper-level support, are forecast to lead to a gradual increase in shower and storm coverage (again capped at 70pct). Weak storm steering flow will increase the threat for locally heavy rainfall. Hot temperatures continue through the period. Heat indices will remain a concern, especially Tuesday, with forecast values approaching Advisory criteria. && .MARINE... Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Afternoon-Mon...Generally favorable boating conditions through early next week, as high pressure centered over the western Atlc with associated ridge axis near the local waters. The main threat continues to be scattered to numerous offshore-moving showers and lightning storms in the late afternoon and evening hours. South to southwesterly flow will "back" southeasterly along the coast each afternoon and increase to 10-15 kts as the sea breeze develops. Seas 1-3 ft. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 135 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Mainly VFR conds through the TAF period. Light W/SW flow 5-7 kts develops after sunrise, shifting southeast at the coastal terminals behind the sea breeze btwn 17Z-19Z. Will maintain VCTS over northern terminals aft 18Z, incl MCO/SFB/DAB/MLB. Some of these will prob be upgraded to TEMPOs. Less confidence for SHRA/TSRA across southern terminals so no precip mention VRB-SUA for now. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 72 93 73 / 50 10 40 10 MCO 93 74 94 74 / 40 10 30 10 MLB 90 74 91 74 / 40 20 30 10 VRB 90 73 91 74 / 30 20 30 20 LEE 91 74 92 75 / 40 10 30 10 SFB 93 74 94 74 / 40 10 30 10 ORL 93 75 94 76 / 40 10 30 10 FPR 90 72 91 73 / 30 10 30 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1233343 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1237 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 A quasistationary 593 Dm ridge remains in place across northern Mexico into the western Gulf waters through Saturday night. This is about 2 standard deviations above normal for all the major ensemble guidance. Therefore, confidence is high (70 to 80 percent) in moderate to even pockets of major heat risk concerns heading into the weekend. Subsidence inversion means largely rain-free conditions except for isolated streamer showers over the Gulf waters and immediate coast. Persistent surface low pressure across west Texas and 1016mb surface high over the eastern Gulf waters mean continued southeasterly winds. Forecast soundings show mixing up to 925mb, and with a 25-30 kt southeasterly low-level jet (LLJ), expect gusty conditions Friday afternoon with 25-30 mph gusts at times. Even higher gusts are possible with 30-35 mph on Saturday. Isolated 35-40 mph gusts are not out of the question Saturday into Saturday night for areas west of I-69C/US-281 as the 925-850mb LLJ becomes more south-southeasterly oriented and strengthens to 30-35 kt and mixing deepens. Oppressive heat will also build and become more widespread heading into Saturday, although heat indices (which is a function of ambient air temperature and dew point temperature) should remain generally between 100-110 degrees on both Friday and Saturday. This is because while areas west of I-69C see temperatures top out in 96- 103 range, dew point temperatures would be somewhat more tolerable in the 63-69 range. Areas east of I-69C/US-281 and especially along the I-69E corridor see air temperature in the 90-97 range (except 85- 89 on SPI) but dew points in the 68-75 range. We will likely need a Special Weather Statement (SPS) for heat index values topping out in the 105 to 110 range this (Friday) afternoon and on Saturday afternoon. Depending on model trends and how much we cool off Friday night, a Heat Advisory might even be needed for parts of the area on Saturday for heat index values exceeding 111. Regardless of whether it is a SPS or Heat Advisory, widespread moderate (level 2 of 4) heat risk is likely, with pockets of major (level 3 of 4) heat risk. Please take the heat seriously especially for those with outdoor plans, including proper hydration and access to cooling measures. On a side note, Saharan dust originating from Africa could make for vibrant sunrises and sunsets through the weekend, although better probabilities are across the eastern Gulf. No deterioration in air quality is expected. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 It will still be uncomfortably to oppressively hot heading into Sunday. 590+ Dm ridge remains in control over our area but should be shunted southwestward into Mexico as we head into the start of the new work week. This is consistent with the upper level trough over the central and eastern U.S. becoming more amplified. Major heat risk (level 3 of 4) becomes widespread by Sunday into Monday due to the cumulative effect of the prolonged heat and lack of nocturnal cooling. The latter is especially true for areas along and east of I- 69E across the densely populated urban corridors of Cameron and Hidalgo counties, where the oppressive dew points in the mid to upper 70s mean that overnight lows will struggle to fall below 80 degrees. Further west across the mid and upper Valley, lower dew points in the upper 50s to mid 60s will mitigate the higher air temperatures, which are expected top out in the 102 to 107 range. Expect maximum heat index values of 105 to 111 Sunday into Monday. While not quite reaching Heat Advisory criteria, once again, the cumulative effects of the prolonged heat and lack of nocturnal cooling mean more widespread major heat risk impacts. Forecast uncertainty increases as we head into Tuesday and Wednesday. Models diverge in how quickly the upper level ridge breaks down and if the embedded shortwave energy can lead to any organized convection. Shower and thunderstorm chances begin to increase late Tuesday into Wednesday as a cold front tries to push southward but may end up stalling north of our CWA. Given the uncertainty for the mid to latter half of the week, have largely stuck with the blended guidance. But it is fair to say that confidence is medium to medium high (50-70 percent) that the weather pattern is going to get more unsettled by mid week, although it remains to be seen (10-30 percent confidence) whether we will get garden variety showers or more organized convection. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 MVFR to VFR will be the rule at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Light winds overnight will become breezy on Friday before diminishing around sunset. Partly cloudy and rain-free skies are also anticipated. && .MARINE... Issued at 1035 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail with light to moderate southeasterly winds and low to moderate seas. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are likely over the weekend into early next week along the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters. Mainly dry and warm conditions are expected over the weekend except for isolated showers over the Gulf waters. Weather pattern becomes more unsettled heading into middle of next week with 30-50 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms as a frontal boundary approaches but stalls north of our region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 94 81 94 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 78 96 78 97 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 80 100 81 101 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 79 101 78 102 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 82 88 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 92 80 92 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ |
| #1233342 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 130 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 124 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 A considerable plume of Saharan Dust is forecast to remain in place across South Florida through the period, while an area of high pressure will continue to build in from the western Atlantic while ridging sets up aloft. The combination of this blocking pattern and the presence of the Saharan dust will help inhibit widespread convective development each day. Portions of the interior could still see a few stray showers develop where the sea breezes meet each afternoon given enough lingering moisture in the area (observed and forecast PWATs in the 1.5-1.8 inch range, about average for this time of year) but coverage and duration will be minimal and transient. Temperatures today will climb back into the upper 80s for the East Coast and up to the low to mid 90s across southwest Florida. Conditions warm up even further on Saturday thanks to the influence of the lingering Saharan dust, with highs reaching the low 90s across the East Coast, and potentially hitting the mid to upper 90s over southwest FL. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 124 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Saturday night - Sunday night: Ridging aloft will continue to build over the Gulf and the western Atlantic this weekend, while high pressure continues to build in from the western Atlantic at the surface. Light easterly to southeasterly winds will prevail as a result, allowing for the gradually thinning Saharan dust plume to linger across the region through the weekend. Convective develop will remain constrained sea breeze-induced showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, with chances in the 30-40% range over the interior and 20-30% over the East Coast. Monday - Thursday: The pattern becomes a bit more progressive at the beginning of the new week as a mid-level trough will begin to deepen across the Eastern Seaboard. Model guidance now shows the Gulf ridge weakening as a result, making way for the ridge over the western Atlantic to begin expanding eastward into our region, in concert with its corresponding surface high, which will continue to build into South FL. Meanwhile, NASA/GMAO GEOS modeling of the Dust Aerosol Optical Thickness has the dust clearing out on Monday afternoon. If both of these solutions pans out, the building ridge could act to keep the mid-level trough well north of our area, and with it the more unsettled and impactful weather. However, with the Saharan dust finally clearing making way for tropical moisture to return to the area, the chances for mesoscale driven showers and thunderstorms along the sea breezes each afternoon could increase considerably mid week. And if the trough happens to dip any further south, it could result in even higher chances for unsettled weather. For now, we`re going with a forecast that straddles both the drier and wetter solutions with PoPs in the 50-70% range, but the forecast will need to be closely monitored and adjusted over the next couple of days if this trend changes. Daily high temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s each day with highest temperatures over the interior. Overnight lows each night will be in the low 70s around the Lake Okeechobee region and interior, with mid 70s for the Gulf coast and upper 70s for the east coast metro. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 124 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Light winds overnight will increase out of the SE after 15z and will range between 10 to 15 kts through the afternoon. At KAPF, winds will become SW this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. && .MARINE... Issued at 124 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will prevail across the local waters today, but will gradually weaken heading into Saturday as a surface high builds over the region. Winds in the Gulf could veer from the southwest each afternoon as the Gulf Breeze develops. Isolated to scattered showers remain possible each afternoon. && .BEACHES... Issued at 124 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across the Atlantic Coast beaches today. The rip current risk will gradually diminish heading into the weekend as onshore flow continues to weaken. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 91 78 92 77 / 20 10 20 10 West Kendall 91 74 91 74 / 20 10 20 10 Opa-Locka 91 78 92 78 / 20 10 20 10 Homestead 89 77 90 76 / 10 10 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 89 77 89 77 / 20 10 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 90 77 91 77 / 20 10 20 10 Pembroke Pines 91 79 92 79 / 20 10 20 10 West Palm Beach 90 76 91 76 / 20 10 20 10 Boca Raton 86 76 89 76 / 20 10 20 10 Naples 90 75 91 76 / 30 20 30 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233341 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:27 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 113 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracks northeast along the Carolina coastal plain tonight, then pushes offshore Friday morning. A cold front approaches Friday night and moves into the region Saturday, before lingering over the area Sunday. This will bring a return to chances of primarily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Mainly dry conditions prevail Monday, with unsettled weather expected Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 930 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Showers are expected across far southern VA and NE NC through Friday morning, with lower chances elsewhere. At the surface, an low is transiting NE across eastern NC and is producing widespread stratiform rain. Showers have made it as far north as south-central/SE VA, but diminished instability has led to convective activity waning over the past few hours. Upper air soundings to our south sampled a very moist atmospheric profile, while the Wallops sounding continued to sample a layer of dry air between ~900-500 mb. This sharp moisture gradient has resulted in showers quickly decaying as they hit the dry air, and areas north of Hampton Roads have remained dry this evening. Surface winds are generally from the southeast to south across the local area, which is pulling in high dew points and keeping temperatures relatively warm. Dew points are in the upper 60s to lower 70s and temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s, making for a muggier evening. Stratiform rain will continue to move across south-central/SE VA and NE NC overnight. Confidence on any further movement northward is lower due to the drier air still in place. A few heavier embedded showers are possible, though thunder is looking less likely. Temperatures will remain warm overnight, falling only into the 60s. Conditions will start to improve tomorrow morning as the low ejects off into the western North Atlantic and moves offshore. Rain chances will diminish after sunrise. While most of the day will be dry, a few showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm may move into the piedmont region late tomorrow afternoon as a prefrontal trough moves through the Ohio River Valley region tomorrow afternoon. A Marginal SVR risk covers the extreme western edge of the CWA, but the bulk of shower/storm activity is likely to stay W of the CWA. Sky cover will start to scatter out in the west earlier than in the east, so the piedmont region is forecast to see highs in the mid 80s while coastal areas will likely only reach the upper 70s to lower 80s due to the thick cloud cover expected for a majority of the day. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Scattered/numerous showers/tstms Sat aftn/evening with a cold front. - Remaining unsettled with showers and storms likely Sunday. A shortwave trough slides across the region late Friday night into early Saturday given the progressive nature of the mid- level flow, and this could produce some showers earlier in the day. However, the primary shortwave and more significant height falls arrive later in the day with the actual cold front. The mid level flow increases (500-700mb winds avg 30-40kt). The cold front is expected to move into the area by aftn, then slowly sagging south Saturday night. The attendant shortwave aloft should also support a higher coverage of showers/tstms and PoPs remain the 50-60% range for most of the local area Saturday afternoon, sliding to the SE in the evening. With dew points in the upper 60s to around 70F, instability does look favorable (especially when combined with decent mid-level flow) for some strong to severe tstms. The latest Day 3 Outlook places a Slight Risk across NE NC, with a Marginal for the remainder of the FA (minus the eastern shore where the risk is less). At this time, it looks like primarily a wind threat, though mid level lapse rates may be steep enough for at least a marginal hail threat as well. The coverage of precip should drop off overnight Saturday as the cold front sags S. Highs Saturday range from the lower/mid 80s N to the upper 80s S. Lows Saturday night will mainly be in the mid 60s to around 70F. For Sunday, the models remain in good agreement that the front will be stalled across southern sections of the CWA, with a robust shortwave aloft passing through the region through the aftn/early evening. SPC`s Day 4 has a 15% SVR risk for NC, where instability will tend to be the highest. Either way, there looks to be sufficient forcing amd lingering moisture to maintain likely PoPs across the entire area. There will also be the potential for locally heavy rainfall/localized flooding given PWATs remaining elevated and with the front nearly parallel to the mid level flow. Highs Sunday in the upper 70s to lower 80s N to the mid 80s S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 340 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Mainly dry Monday. - Unsettled conditions return Tuesday. By Monday, PW anomalies return to near normal with the front washing out across NC, so PoPs are mainly 20% or less, with the exception of 20-30% near the Albemarle Sound. Unsettled weather with showers/tstms are expected to return Tuesday as moisture increases ahead of another shortwave trough. By the middle of the week, high pressure and drier conditions potentially return to the region. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through the medium range period. Highs Monday are expected in the upper 80s, and then lower/mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday, and mid to upper 80s Thursday. Lows will mainly be in the 60s to around 70F. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 115 AM EDT Friday... VFR conditions prevail at RIC/SBY early this morning, with MVFR to IFR (mainly due to CIGs) across SE VA/NE NC. Light rain has been confined to PHF/ORF/ECG...and this will continue to be the case this morning as weak low pressure tracks across eastern NC and eventually offshore. CIGS will gradually lower between now and sunrise, with a period of IFR expected at ECG between 08-14z, with IFR possible at PHF/ORF during this timeframe. No worse than MVFR CIGs are expected at RIC, with VFR through the period at SBY. CIGs improve to MVFR by midday and scatter out during the aftn across the southeastern terminals. Isolated- scattered tstms will develop across the mountains/piedmont this aftn but should weaken before reaching RIC this evening. Winds remain aob 10 kt through the period. A cold front will approach from the NW Saturday bringing a 50-60% chc of showers/tstms. This front is expected to linger in vicinity of the region Sunday with a high chc of showers/tstms continuing. The latest guidance shows the front pushing S of the region Monday. Showers/storms return Tuesday aftn/evening. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - A weak low pressure system develops along the NC coast tonight and moves offshore. - Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the period though winds may gusts to 15 to 20 kt at times. With high pressure just offshore south winds have remained relatively light this afternoon around 5 to 10 kt with a few gusts near 15 kt. Winds will become more SE tonight and then E and NE by Friday. A weak area of low pressure will develop along the NC coast this evening and move offshore Friday. This will tighten the pressure gradient just enough to cause winds to become NE for Friday at 10 to 15 kt. Expect a few gusts to near 20 kt over the Bay and coastal waters. In general guidance has lowered the wind a couple kts for Friday, so it appears conditions will remain below SCA criteria. Seas will be generally 2-3 ft in the coastal waters and waves will be 1-2 ft in the Chesapeake Bay through tonight. The low tracking off the NC coast is expected to remain weak and move away quickly by late Fri. Regardless of the weaker storm system, there should be ab increasing SE/E swell produced by the low with seas forecast to increase to 3-4 ft by Fri aftn. The forecast for seas has trended down a bit from yesterday. While winds diminish to below 10 kt by late Friday evening, 2-4 ft seas may linger through Fri night (especially N). Prevailing sub-SCA conditions are expected over the weekend (although aftn/evening tstms are expected each day which could necessitate SMWs). Winds become S/SW Saturday ahead of a weak front. The front will push its way south stalling over southeast VA for Sunday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1233340 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 115 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 735 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Bulk of the airmass has been worked over with convection trending downward across SE GA and fading across NE FL early this evening. Mild, muggy conditions are expected once convection completely fades with potential for localized and shallow ground fog possible by daybreak Friday. Temperatures will fall to lower 70s overnight. Southwesterly flow will keep chances for numerous afternoon showers and storms again to end the work week; however, coverage may be thinned out by some dry layers and warming aloft on Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Sunday night) Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Southwesterly flow will continue to dominant across the area allowing for the Gulf breeze to move well inland and keep the Atlantic breeze pinned along the coast through the weekend. As gulf moisture continues to filter into the area, PWATs will range from 1.75" to 2.0", which will help to increase the chances of precipitation, 60% and above, across the majority of the local area during the upcoming weekend. In addition to the increase PWATs, diurnal heating will help to destabilize the local environment and increase the chances of strong to severe storms to develop during the afternoon hours on Saturday and Sunday along the Gulf breeze. Locations in SE GA, particularly the Altamaha River Basin, are expected to have the higher chances of severe storms as shortwaves try to move into SE GA. At this time, the Storm Prediction Center has a "Slight" risk of severe storms near the Altamaha River basin for this potential and a Marginal risk for the rest of SE GA on Saturday. On Sunday, while not in a "Slight" risk at the moment, SPC is highlighting locations along the Altamaha River basin and northern SE GA coastal locations with a 15% chance for severe thunderstorm development. The main thunderstorm hazards each day will be locally heavy rainfall, especially where cell mergers occur, as well as gusty downburst winds. Daytime highs will be in the low/mid 90s with heat indices near 105 on Saturday. Overnight lows dip into the upper 60s and lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 The wet weather pattern continues into the upcoming week as the southwesterly flow continues to allow for gulf moisture to filter into the area. The Gulf breeze will continue to move well inland during the first half of the upcoming week as the Atlantic breeze remains along the coast. Passing shortwaves along the northern locations of SE GA will likely see higher potential for severe storms. A shift in the southwesterly flow as the Bermuda High looks to strengthen and stretch over the region near midweek, will allow for the Atlantic breeze to move further inland. Highs will continue in the lower/mid 90s as the westerly flow continues, but cooler temperatures along the Atlantic coast will begin to develop as the east coast breeze begins to make its way towards inland locations by midweek. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 109 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 MVFR fog at VQQ this morning, along with MVFR CIGS at SSI, otherwise mainly VFR with high clouds at the rest of the NE FL TAF sites with light SW flow. Expect at least SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS to develop in morning diurnal heating in the 11-15Z time frame at all TAF sites with CIGS around 2500 ft at times. Expect at least scattered storms to develop in the W-SW flow this afternoon and have added TEMPO groups at all TAF sites, in the 18-22Z time frame at GNV and 19-23Z time frame at other TAF sites for gusty winds to 25 knots and MVFR VSBYS/CIGS. Convection should fade around sunset with leftover mid/high debris clouds through the rest of the TAF period from 01-06Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Weak low pressure situated along a warm front that is positioned over the Carolinas will move northeastward, pushing off the North Carolina Outer Banks by Friday night. Atlantic high pressure will otherwise continue to extend its axis westward across the Florida peninsula during the next several days. Southerly winds will briefly surge to Caution levels offshore this evening, followed by prevailing southwesterly winds from Friday through the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact our local waters through the evening hours tonight. Stronger storms will be capable of producing briefly strong wind gusts, frequent lightning strikes and torrential downpours. Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will push eastward across our region from Friday through the weekend, mostly during the afternoon and evening hours. Strong to severe storms will be possible this weekend and early next week, mainly across the Georgia waters. Seas of 2 to 4 feet will prevail throughout our local waters during the next several days. Rip Currents: A persistent southeasterly ocean swell will keep a moderate rip current risk in place this afternoon at the northeast FL beaches. Prevailing offshore winds should yield a low risk at all area beaches from Friday through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1204 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Breezy southwesterly transport winds will yield fair daytime dispersion values across inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley, where showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage early this afternoon. This activity will spread eastward during the mid and late afternoon hours, with good dispersion values forecast before the arrival of these showers and thunderstorms for coastal southeast GA, the rest of northeast FL and north central FL. Surface and transport winds will shift to westerly for Friday and Saturday, with good daytime dispersion values expected area- wide as breezy transport speeds continue. Elevated mixing heights are expected during the weekend and early next week, resulting in possibly high daytime dispersion values at inland locations. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 72 91 73 91 / 20 50 30 80 SSI 76 91 76 92 / 20 50 40 70 JAX 73 94 74 95 / 20 60 20 70 SGJ 73 94 74 95 / 30 60 20 70 GNV 72 94 73 94 / 10 60 10 60 OCF 72 92 73 92 / 10 50 10 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1233337 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:03 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1256 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 909 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Showers and a few thunderstorms continue over south central Georgia and the Florida Big Bend this evening. These will gradually fade over the next couple hours with generally dry conditions overnight. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Friday) Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Diurnally driven scattered thunderstorms will continue until around sunset this evening. The environment is similar to Wednesday with weak mid-level winds and a lack of DCAPE. With PWAT near 2.0 inches, the main concern will be torrential downpours, especially moving northward into SE AL and Southwest GA where the ground becomes more saturated. Cannot rule out minor urban and poor drainage flooding with any storms given how moist the air mass is near I-10 corridor and northward this evening. In particular, the HREF indicates a low probability of flash flooding this evening, mainly north of I-10 into Southwest GA. Patchy fog will be possible again around sunrise on Friday. Low to mid-level flow shifts from southerly to westerly on Friday, with diurnally driven scattered thunderstorms propagating northward along the seabreeze from late Friday morning into the evening. PoPs were tweaked to align to this pattern, highest along the I-10 corridor/FL Big Bend, and decreasing northward into SE AL and Southwest GA. Slightly stronger mid-level winds and greater DCAPE will make for an isolated damaging wind gust potential with some storms. Heavy downpours may lead to urban and poor drainage flooding closer to the I-10 corridor and the Forgotten Coast. A high risk of rip currents continues on Friday at the Gulf beaches. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast through the period as a wet pattern remains overhead. Temperatures oscillate between the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon to the lower to middle 70s each morning. We`ll be on the periphery of an H5 ridge centered over southern Texas through the weekend. A few shortwaves rolling over the northern edge of the H5 high will skirt to our north, but be close enough to keep elevated shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast Saturday and Sunday. An H5 trough diving out of Canada Sunday night will be over the eastern third of the country much of next week. Our area will be near the base of this trough, which, again, keeps rain chances in our forecast through at least mid- week as a cold front works its way south. However, seeing as we`re solidly in June now, the front will likely stall near or north of the region as the large scale H5 trough begins to lift out by mid-week. Deep tropical moisture, characterized by precipitable water values (PWATS) around 1.7" to 2.0", will be over the region more often than not the next several days. As a result, the primary hazard is expected to be isolated heavy rainfall, particularly once we get several days of heavy rain under our belt. While Flash Flood guidance remains high, it is expected to gradually decrease as more rain falls each day. While widespread severe weather isn`t anticipated at this time, a few of the stronger storms could produce locally damaging wind gusts. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 During the early morning hours, low ceilings to MVFR/IFR are possible, especially where rain fell over the previous day. MVFR and brief IFR cigs should lift to VFR by mid/late morning if they develop. During the afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop along the seabreeze and across inland areas through the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Surface high pressure in the Atlantic will maintain a light to moderate southerly to southwesterly breeze the next several days. Seas will generally run between 2 to 3 feet. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Aside from dispersions, fire weather concerns will be low through the next few days due to high rain chances and relative humidities, as well as light winds. There is the potential for high dispersions Friday afternoon near the Suwanee. On Saturday, high dispersions are increasingly likely in Southeast AL and Southwest GA. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Daily shower and thunderstorm chances remain elevated through the weekend into early next week. Locally heavy rain is possible within any of those showers or storms thanks to precipitable water values (PWATs) between 1.7" to 2.0", or near the 90th percentile for early- mid June. 3hr Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) remains between 2.5" to 3.5" in the more urban areas and 3" to 5.5" in our more rural locations. These values are forecast to decrease the next few days thanks to those daily rain chances. Nuisance flooding of urban and poor drainage areas are the biggest concern, especially as we see the soil continue to moisten with each round of showers and storms. Fortunately, area rivers and streams remain in good shape with gradual rises possible as more and more rain falls across the region. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 91 73 93 75 / 60 10 80 10 Panama City 89 77 89 78 / 40 20 60 30 Dothan 90 73 92 74 / 40 10 60 30 Albany 90 73 93 74 / 40 10 60 30 Valdosta 90 73 93 74 / 50 10 60 20 Cross City 90 72 91 73 / 40 10 60 10 Apalachicola 87 76 88 78 / 40 10 60 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233336 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:57 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1152 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday Night) Issued at 1154 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Today has shaped up to be a very typical early summer day with high temperatures rising into the upper 80s to low 90s, southeasterly winds, and a splattering of isolated showers across the area. Not anticipating any of the strong storms that we saw yesterday afternoon, but could squeak out a rumble of thunder and a brief downpour out of one or two isolated storms this afternoon. Activity will wane after sunset with mild and muggy conditions expected tonight with low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s inland, and low 80s along the coast. Upper-level ridging begins to strengthen on Friday leading to drier and warmer conditions. High temperatures rising into the mid-90s for most areas along and north of I-10 up through the Piney Woods - and wouldn`t be shocked to see isolated areas within the Houston Metro rising into the upper 90s. Heat indices will rise into the 100-105 degree range during the afternoon hours. The hot weather only gets hotter for the weekend, but read more about that below. The arrival of some hazy conditions is expected Friday afternoon/evening as a layer of Saharan dust moves in from the Gulf. Fowler && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 We begin the long term still under the strong influence of a deep subtropical ridge, resulting in hotter than normal temperatures on both Sunday and Monday. Both days are expected to feature inland highs in the mid/upper 90s. However, ridging will start its breakdown on Monday. Thus, Monday is expected to be a tad less hot than Sunday. Monday will also have a better chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Beyond Monday, ridging breakdowns further while a parade of vort maxes and shortwaves pass over our region, resulting in an unsettled and less hot pattern. Many locations could fail to reach 90 degrees Tuesday-Thursday due to clouds and scattered to widespread showers/thunderstorms. We will need to monitor the potential for heavier thunderstorms. Localized flooding would be the primary concern. But a few strong to severe thunderstorms couldn`t be ruled out either. The Tuesday-Thursday time frame is a little far out to be talking confidently about severe weather and flood potential. But the overall signal appears favorable for at least some heavier showers and thunderstorms during the Tuesday-Thursday time frame. Self && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 MVFR cigs are expected to develop across our northern zones overnight, before trending VFR by mid-morning. Light and variable winds overnight, are expected to increase out of the south during the morning hours. By afternoon, winds are expected to back to the southeast. An isolated afternoon shra/tsra cannot be ruled out. No rain mentioned in the TAF as of now due to the expected isolated coverage. && .MARINE... Issued at 1125 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Light to moderate onshore flow and relatively low seas are expected through the middle of next week. However, seas could be around 5 feet in the offshore open Gulf waters at times.Beach conditions over the weekend will feature an enhanced rip current risk along with hotter than normal temperatures. The pattern turns more unsettled next week, with an increasing chance of rain and thunderstorms. Heavier thunderstorms capable of locally higher winds and seas are possible, especially starting Tuesday through the end of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 93 75 93 76 / 20 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 94 76 94 78 / 20 0 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 88 81 88 82 / 20 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233335 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:36 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1120 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Another day, another...warm...muggy...day with isolated storms. Again storms have had a little more difficulty developing and likely due to the lack of any real moisture surge. PWs around 1.5-1.6 is just not enough when there isn`t anything else to help pop off storms and likely increasing hghts and mid lvl temps. As for tomorrow and into the weekend not feeling real good about convection Friday and Saturday and with that we can expected rather warm and humid conditions. The ridge will continue to expand into the area tonight and tomorrow while slightly drier air in the northwestern Gulf will also drift into the area. This should just lead to isolated storms at best tomorrow afternoon, mainly associated with the seabreeze. Highs could actually climb into the mid 90s in a few locations. Saturday looks like it will be quite similar to Friday but there could be a few storms that try to move in out of the northwest as the ridge will begin to break down on the northeastern side. This is in response to the pattern amplifying and a trough digging across the Plains which will impact the forecast far more Sunday and well into the new work week. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 As for the extended portion of the forecast, medium range models are in fairly good agreement heading into next week but there are some slight differences that could mean a big difference from getting hammered with storms with being just on the outside. Overall all do suggest an increase in rain chances with a definite change in the pattern from what we see right now. By Sunday the ridge will have been suppressed to the southwest becoming centered over Mexico and the northern and especially northeastern quadrant of it will have eroded allowing northwest flow to return. Northwest flow is always tricky and how fast it develops Sunday will determine if we can get scattered to numerous storms to develop and if they do will likely be late in the day. The more interesting and unknown is going into next week. The models have indicated for days another more potent s/w embedded in the flow coming down into the Lower MS Valley Monday/Monday night. At the same time a weak boundary could dip down into the Gulf coast states stretching from near the TX/OK panhandles to the central Gulf coast. This would provide a corridor for storms to ride northwest to southeast and these storms would have the potential to become strong to severe. If that does drop down far enough south we could see multiple rounds of storms or even a few MCS`s Monday into Wednesday. If that doesn`t quite slides far enough south we could be right on the fringe of that activity. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 VFR conditions persist through the forecast cycle. Some patchy fog that may bring MVFR conditions can`t be ruled out for northern terminals, mainly MCB, Friday morning but would likely burn off after sunrise. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 High pressure will remain in control over the area and will be centered over the eastern Gulf. This will maintain the light generally southerly and south-southwest winds into the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day with the greatest risk for storms east of the MS delta. Obviously with these storms strong winds and higher seas are expected along with a few waterspouts. /CAB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 72 92 72 93 / 10 10 0 20 BTR 74 94 75 94 / 10 20 0 30 ASD 74 92 75 93 / 0 20 0 30 MSY 77 93 77 93 / 0 30 0 40 GPT 75 90 76 91 / 10 20 0 30 PQL 73 90 75 91 / 10 20 0 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233334 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:30 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1221 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure will move north of the area through tonight. A stationary front will pass to the north this weekend. Next week the local area will remain between Atlantic high pressure and a surface trough inland. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Rain chances are quickly ending and expect a mostly dry rest of the night. As high clouds move out, low and mid-level clouds will fill in through daybreak. It is unclear if widespread stratus will occur with guidance essentially spit on its potential. Some shallow ground fog could occur, especially inland, but significant impacts are not expected. Lows from the upper 60s inland to the mid 70s are on track, but were nudged back into the mid 70s for Downtown Charleston. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... As the aforementioned low officially moves offshore and well away from the region on Friday morning, a weak cold front could potentially pass through the region in the early morning hours of Friday. Zonal flow should take control through the weekend as weak longwave troughing forms over the Eastern CONUS by late Saturday. Moisture looks to stick around with PWAT values ~1.50-1.75 inches. A typical sometime pattern will take over on Friday through the weekend with the seabreeze pushing inland each afternoon, sparking up showers and thunderstorms in the wake of it. There are some hints that instability could be more than the previous days due the decent amount of diurnal heating and moisture in place. Looking at the severe potential for Saturday ... SPC has placed the region under a Slight Risk (except for the immediate coastline). A large MCS in the Midwest will move eastward towards the region and try to make its way down on Saturday. If this system holds together, there is potential for scattered damaging wind swaths to occur on Saturday afternoon through the evening. However, confidence remains extremely low with this as it`s very possible this MCS will fall apart before even reaching the region. Recent guidance indicates that shear will be able to gradually increase through the weekend into Sunday, this may cause for another severe threat on Sunday as well. Temperatures for Friday and Sunday will reach into the upper 80s/low 90s and mid 90s on Saturday, with temperatures cooler at the beaches. Lows will continue to be mild over the weekend with temperatures overnight only dipping into the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The long-wave troughing pattern should persist and become more amplified along the Eastern CONUS through Tuesday. Some sort of stationary front could possible pass to the north of the region over the weekend as a cold front extending from a upper-lvl trough situated over Eastern Canada begins to approach the area early next week. This will continue this typical diurnal summertime pattern of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon as the seabreeze pushes inland. Expect temperatures to be a few degrees above-normal through this period. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 06/06z Aviation Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Low and mid-level clouds are expected to expand with time as a band of high clouds aloft pushes east. It is unclear if widespread stratus will develop with recent near term guidance essentially split on its potential. Expect mainly low- end VFR cigs to develop at all terminals over the next few hours with potential for a few hours of MVFR just before daybreak. TEMPO groups were utilized to reflect this trend. VFR will dominate shortly after sunrise with isolated to scattered showers/tstms developing as early as late morning and continuing into the afternoon hours. Coverage looks greatest over Southeast Georgia, but much of this may stay south of KSAV. For now, VCTS was highlighted 17-20z, but the need for a TEMPO group will be reassessed with the 12z TAFs. For KCHS and KJZI, coverage looks to remain a bit more isolated so impact probabilities look too low to justly a mention at this time. Extended Aviation Outlook: This typical summertime convection pattern will bring periodic flight restrictions through Monday. && .MARINE... Overnight: Elevated winds 15-20 kt out of the southwest will continue through the rest of the night. Seas will average 2-4 ft. Friday through Monday: With the coastal low slowly drifting further and further away, a stationary front should pass to the north of the region this weekend. Expect west south-westerly winds at 10 to 15 kt to period. It could become a bit gusty on Saturday and Sunday afternoon with gusts up to 20 to 22 kt possible with the sea breeze pushing inland (gusts will be strongest across the Charleston Harbor). South-easterly swell continues to mix into the Atlantic waters and cause for some decent waves to take shape on Friday, before tapering off on the weekend. Seas should range from 2 to 4 ft for the rest of the period. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
