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| #1240746 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:12 AM 08.Aug.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 703 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 701 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 East to southeast winds prevail again today, with showers and thunderstorms likely affecting all sites this afternoon and evening. The morning hours should be free of any rain, but have VCTS starting between 17-19Z area-wide, with TEMPO groups highlighting the time frames with the best storm chances. Similar to yesterday, activity will linger near the coast after 00Z, then eventually shift offshore. Rain chances are then even higher for Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 A weak stationary frontal boundary remains stretched east to west across northern Florida and the northern gulf coast waters. This boundary sits between high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states and high pressure in the western gulf. A little farther to the northeast, models continue to develop a weak area of low pressure off the Carolina coastline. This area of low pressure has only a 20 percent chance of tropical development over the next 7 days as it slowly lifts to the north-northeast. Regardless of tropical development and track, the Florida peninsula will remain on the south and moist side of the stationary boundary and will see an increase in moisture today and continuing into the weekend with PWAT values between 2.0 - 2.4 inches. This wet pattern will support scattered to widespread showers and storms each day through the weekend. Some localized flooding will be possible in the stronger storms. By Monday morning, some slightly drier air with PWAT values between 1.9 - 2.2 inches settles into the area as high pressure off the mid- Atlantic states ridges southwest across Florida and into the gulf. This will bring back easterly flow and will likely translate to slightly lower, more typical summertime rain and storm chances for the first half of next week. Near seasonal temperatures expected today and through the weekend with daytime highs topping out in the upper 80`s to low 90`s. With high humidity, heat indices will still reach 100-104 degrees each afternoon. Overnight lows will remain in the mid 70`s to low 80`s. A slight warm up expected next week with daytime highs creeping back up into the mid 90`s and heat indices approaching 100-107 degrees. && .MARINE... Issued at 222 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 Light winds around 10 knots or less and minimal seas expected over the eastern gulf waters into the weekend. The only hazard expected will be gusty winds in the vicinity of scattered showers and storms each day. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 222 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 Abundant moisture will keep RH values above critical levels through the period. Scattered summertime showers and storms expected each day. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will remain light at 10 mph or less, precluding any fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 78 91 78 / 80 70 80 70 FMY 92 76 91 76 / 80 60 80 60 GIF 92 74 92 74 / 80 50 80 40 SRQ 92 75 92 76 / 80 70 80 70 BKV 91 73 91 74 / 80 60 80 60 SPG 89 77 89 78 / 80 70 80 70 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1240745 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:09 AM 08.Aug.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 659 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure to the north continues to bring cooler northeasterly flow and unsettled weather through the weekend, and perhaps even into early next week. Offshore low pressure will also move northeastward this weekend. The wedge of cooler air should start to break by the middle of next week, starting a warming trend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The August CAD wedge remains in place today with surface high pressure off the Northeast coast and weak low pressure well off to the east. Cloud coverage isn`t expected to be as stubborn today as the past couple of days, but low stratus will linger through late morning before improving midday. Unseasonably cool weather again in store for today, with highs in the mid 80s combining with summertime dewpoints in the 70s. Some mid-level convergence will bring another day of rain chances, mainly across coastal counties with the higher PWATs. Upper shortwave currently approaching the area will exit midday leading to NVA, combining with lack of a decent sea breeze to limit shower coverage to widely scattered. Steering flow again is fairly weak, so any storms that do develop could lead to isolated heavy rain. Low temps tonight around 70F. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Offshore low pressure will be off the NC coast moving further out to sea into Saturday night. Ridging high pressure to our west remains in the area with NE winds and it will become the dominant feature driving the forecast. This means cooler highs just a bit below normal in the low to mid 80s. Rain chances will have a slight skew with drier conditions NE and wetter SW. Headed into Sunday, it looks like ridging builds in behind the low from the SW and an area of vorticity extending from the offshore low gets caught up in the surge from the SW. This could increase coverage of showers/storms Sunday particularly in the afternoon, again more for our SW areas, if accompanied by enough moisture to combat the wedging high. Saturday rainfall doesn`t appear to be too much of a threat due to that drier air but winds aloft will be very light so storms might not have much movement to them. Sunday should see a bit more rainfall possible across the board if the SW surge brings some deeper moisture with it. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Lingering forcing aloft around the high to our north and continued pushing of moisture in from the SW could lead to higher rainfall activity Monday. Tuesday onwards could see a decrease in rainfall coverage as the high moves offshore ahead of low pressure well to our north with only weak high pressure over the mountains. The pattern starts to become more summerlike with scattered convection possible day to day in the afternoon/evening with the sea breeze and Piedmont trough, temperatures warming to near or even above normal by mid week. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Widespread IFR/MVFR ceilings across the area will improve late this morning/midday as clouds start to break up and ceilings lift, with VFR conditions forecasted area-wide by 18-20z. With high pressure wedge still in place, expect a return of low ceilings tonight. Winds remain out of the NNE. Chance of showers and isolated thunder this afternoon, mainly at coastal terminals. Extended Outlook...Restrictions to flight categories may continue into the weekend due to either spotty afternoon convection or continued influence from the wedge bringing low ceilings. More of the same is possible into early next week, though the wedge may start to break by Tuesday. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...High pressure wedge remains in place inland, maintaining northeast winds across the local coastal waters through tonight, with sustained speeds of 10-15 kts and gusts around 20kt, particularly through midday today. Seas 2-3 ft due to ENE swell. Saturday through Tuesday...Low pressure well off the NC coast will continue out to sea into Sunday. NE winds ~10-15 kts will become more easterly and onshore AOB 10 kts into early next week as high pressure starts to builds back in. Seas 2-3 ft to start the period relaxing to generally 2 ft early next week. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ108. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1240744 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:09 AM 08.Aug.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 655 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 143 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 For today, weak upper level troughing and low-level northeasterly flow will continue. There will be a moisture gradient across the area with deeper moisture across the Florida Big Bend compared to further northwest across southeast Alabama. This moisture gradient will result in the highest rain chances across the southeast Florida Big Bend today with lower chances further northwest. Slow storm motions and heavy rainfall rates may lead to localized areas of flooding in low-lying areas and poor drainage areas. High temperatures will generally range from the mid 80s to near 90 with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 143 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 A tropical wave will slide into the northeast Gulf this weekend while a meandering front will slowly sag south into the Gulf waters before dissipating. Deep moisture will increase across the local area with precipitable water values over 2.1 inches for most locations. These factors are expected to lead to an increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend into early next week. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will accompany stronger convection. Isolated flash flooding concerns are possible given the saturated conditions that are currently in place. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 143 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 Beyond Monday, the subtropical ridge will regain some influence across the area with rain chances declining back to more typical levels for August. In conjunction, highs will jump back into the low to mid 90s with heat index values back into the 100s by the middle of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 650 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 The two main TAF forecasting challenges will be with extent of morning stratus, along with cig heights, and the extent of afternoon thunder. Satellite imagery currently shows an expanding area of MVFR and IFR stratus across the region. It will affect all terminals this morning to varying extents. In all cases, morning cigs will lift and scatter out around midday. Afternoon thunder will be confined to the moister air mass across Florida and far south Georgia, favoring VLD, TLH, and ECP. Further north in the drier mid-level air, thunder is unlikely at ABY, and not expected at DHN. && .MARINE... Issued at 143 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 A tropical wave will enter the northern Gulf Saturday through Monday with an increase in showers and thunderstorms each day favoring the overnight into morning periods. Beyond Monday, high pressure builds through the southeast US with winds becoming east to southeast and an overall decreasing trend to the rain chances. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 143 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 Low fire weather concerns are expected for the next few days with moist conditions and increasing rain chances heading into the weekend. The wettest locations will likely be across the Florida Big Bend with lower rain chances across southeast Alabama. Dispersions will be on the lower side, but most locations should still remain above 25 into the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 143 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 Heading into the weekend and early next week, scattered to widespread showers and storms are expected with the greatest coverage generally expected over the FL counties. Although widespread flooding is currently not expected, some isolated flash flooding is certainly possible given the saturated conditions in place. In addition, a few rivers and streams remain in or are forecast to reach action stage due to recent rainfall. However, no river points are forecast to reach flood stage at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 89 74 87 73 / 40 20 80 30 Panama City 89 75 88 75 / 40 30 80 50 Dothan 87 72 86 71 / 10 10 60 20 Albany 87 72 86 72 / 20 10 70 20 Valdosta 89 72 88 72 / 50 20 80 30 Cross City 91 72 91 72 / 80 50 90 60 Apalachicola 87 76 86 77 / 60 50 90 70 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1240743 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:57 AM 08.Aug.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 650 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 1253 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf High pressure ridge will remain in place to the north of the region across the Carolinas, while a weakening frontal boundary will remain in place across NE FL. This will continue above normal rainfall chances and slightly below normal temps across coastal SE GA and all of NE FL today with scattered to numerous showers and storms along the coastal areas this morning, transitioning inland with daytime heating through the afternoon hours. Main threats will continue to be heavy rainfall from the storm activity due to the slow storm motion. Max temps will generally be in the upper 80s along coastal Atlantic areas and around 90F across inland areas of NE FL/SE GA. Convection will fade after sunset tonight over inland areas, while the onshore flow will continue slight chances of showers and storms along the Atlantic Coastal areas through the overnight hours. Low temps will generally be in the lower 70s inland and mid/upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast tonight. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 1253 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 Saturday and Sunday, high pressure will remain wedged to the north from the Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas with coastal troughing to the east moving onshore early in the day with a wave of coastal showers pushing onshore. The coastal trough will phase with the frontal boundary and lift northward into SE GA Saturday with expanding showers and T`storms inland. Sunday, the frontal boundary will remain across SE GA with a stronger Atlantic seabreeze moving well inland with increasing showers and T`storms due to seabreeze interactions inland, lift along the front and above normal moisture levels (PWATS 2.00-2.25 inches). Onshore winds will turn more easterly 10-15 mph near the coast with gusts to 20 mph and 5-10 mph inland. Mostly clouds skies will persist during much of the afternoon hours and limit high temperatures to the mid/upper 80s from the coast into SE GA and much of NE FL and around 90 over north central FL. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 1253 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 Wet pattern continues early next week as diffuse frontal boundary stays over the area with 80-90 percent pops. High pressure will gradually weaken to the NE into midweek with Bermuda high pressure ridging extending westward into the area from the Atlantic. Winds from the east early in the week and southeasterly late in the week will support a stronger Atlantic seabreeze pushing inland each afternoon and focusing a few strong T`storms closer to I-75. Aloft, The ridging will build aloft in the mid and upper levels and high temperatures will increase from near normal to above normal with highs Wednesday to Friday in the mid 90s inland and the low 90s at the coast. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 648 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area Today. Showers may linger near the coast through Tonight. The best chance for convection will affect TAF sites near the east coast this morning, with the greatest chance inland in the afternoon. An area of low stratus will affect KSSI this morning. Restrictions in and near showers and thunderstorms are expected. Gusty and erratic winds are anticipated in and near thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 1253 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 A nearly stationary frontal boundary will be over the area Today. An area of low pressure may develop along this boundary off the southeastern US coast. This low would move then northeast of the region over the weekend, as troughing extends southwest over area waters. High pressure will build to the northeast early next week. The onshore flow through the weekend will generally remain in the 10-15 knot range and marine headlines are not expected. Rip Currents: Moderate Risk will continue through the weekend with onshore flow and surf/breakers 2-3 ft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 89 71 86 71 / 60 30 80 40 SSI 86 76 86 76 / 80 70 90 70 JAX 89 74 88 74 / 70 60 90 60 SGJ 88 75 87 76 / 80 60 90 60 GNV 90 73 89 73 / 90 40 90 40 OCF 90 73 90 74 / 90 60 100 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1240742 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:57 AM 08.Aug.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 652 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 239 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 - Increasing moisture and an unsettled weather pattern will lead to high rain chances into the weekend (~60-90%), with locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding concerns each day. - Rain chances will begin to decrease into the early to middle portion of next week, but temperatures will rise back to above normal values. - A High Risk of numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents exists at area beaches through tonight, and possibly may linger into the weekend. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 Current-Tonight...The weak pressure gradient remains in place with L/V to calm winds. Warm and humid conditions continue early this morning with widely scattered showers and perhaps an isolated lightning storm in the deep but light onshore flow. Deep moisture and various boundary collisions will also aid in some convective activity into the interior early in the period. Disturbed weather across the Bahamas and FL Straits will pass slowly westward during the day helping to promote above average (60-80pct) shower/storm chances. Subtle impulses aloft will also aid with convection. PWATs will remain in excess of 2 inches areawide thru the period. Radar trends and local CAMs show convection increasing into the early morning hours over the local coastal waters, along the coast, and across the I-4 corridor. Main impacts will be locally heavy downpours, brief gusty winds, and lightning strikes. An onshore wind component will allow for a diffuse sea breeze boundary to push well inland later today. Greatest rain chances will exist across coastal counties this morning and early afternoon, focusing into the interior this afternoon and early evening, with activity piling up across the western peninsula late today. While steering flow appears to be light and out of the SE/E, there may be some occasional erratic, slow movement with cells. Entirely possible some locations locally could realize 1-3 inch rainfall amounts (perhaps higher), esp due to the slow- moving nature and any spots that receive multiple rounds. While there could be a lull in much of the activity this evening, models, again, suggest re-development late evening and overnight across the local coastal waters, with some of this activity breaching coastal counties and perhaps further inland. Locally heavy downpours possible with minor/nuisance flooding in play. Max temps today in the U80s to around 90F near the coast and generally near 90F to L90s into the interior. Peak heat indices will run 98-105F, though clouds/rainfall will keep these tempered. Conditions humid tonight with persistent lows in the 70s. Sat-Mon...The weak quasi-stationary frontal boundary will remain strewn across north-central FL allowing for deep moisture to pool across the FL peninsula through the weekend and into Mon. While the pgrad remains generally weak, light onshore flow will dominate thru the period. Aloft, a general weak troughy pattern exists with 500 mb temps remaining consistent near -6C. Occasional, weak, subtle mid- level impulses will aid convection. Have capped PoPs at 80-90pct on Sat and 70-80pct Sun/Mon. With the continued onshore flow a diffuse ECSB will develop and traverse the peninsula each day as steering flow, too, remains light and out of the SE or S. Will have to monitor any onshore-moving activity, esp morning/overnight across coastal locales as the heavy rain potential remains real. The primary concern will be the threat for locally heavy rainfall of 2-4 inches each day from slow-moving or repeated rounds of heavier showers and storms. This will cause mostly minor flooding issues, but may lead to isolated instances of more substantial flooding of roadways and poor drainage areas across any locations that see heavy rainfall over repeated days. Still could see a few strong storms with threats of frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds. Increased shower/storm potential and cloud-cover should keep highs in check (U80s to L90s), though rather muggy conditions will exist with very deep moisture in place. Peak afternoon heat indices will still average 98-105F each afternoon ahead of showers/storms. Overnight lows generally consistent and in the 70s. Tue-Thu...A general weak pressure pattern continues across the region with light, mostly onshore flow continuing as deeper moisture focuses further W/NW of ECFL on Tue, though models are quick to usher it back in on Wed/Thu. Aloft, mid-level ridging across the western Atlc retrogrades across the FL peninsula Tue/early Wed, then emerges into the NE Gulf late Wed/Thu. Mid-level temps remain consistent with previous days, though forcing may be lacking. Continue to keep 50-60pct PoPs each day. Coastal counties may still have the greatest rainfall chances during the morning/early afternoon with interior locations realizing highest chances through the afternoon/early evening. Storm steering flow remains light and erratic during this period. Heavy rainfall potential remains one of the biggest convective threats along with lightning strikes and locally gusty winds. With a little less cloud-cover in the forecast, max temps may spike into the L-M90s, once again each afternoon. Forecast peak heat indices generally 102-107F, though could have some isolated higher values which we will have to monitor. Still warm/humid at night with persistent lows in the 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 239 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 Thru Tue...A weak frontal boundary will continue to lie quasi- stationary across north-central FL at least thru the weekend. Winds remain forecast to be a mainly predominantly onshore component, generally southeast thru the weekend and a bit more E/ESE into Mon/Tue, with wind speeds remaining below 15 knots outside of convection. Seas forecast to remain around 2-3 ft through Sat, but potentially building to 3-4 ft well offshore Sun/Mon, then back to 2-3 ft by Tue areawide. Seas locally higher invof stronger showers and lightning storms. Above normal coverage of showers and storms is forecast over the waters into the weekend and Mon. Rain chances may trend closer to normal early next week (Tue) as deeper moisture shifts westward, but only briefly. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 625 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Increase moisture across the region will yield higher than normal rain chances through the day. Highest coverage along the coastal sites through the morning hours before transitioning to the interior terminals this afternoon/evening. Have added TEMPOs for interior sites starting at 23Z for MVFR TSRA. Timing and coverage along the coastal sites remain too low to include TEMPOs at this time. Will monitor and amend as necessary. Shower/storm activity will linger through early evening before activity diminishes for a few hours overnight. Light and variable winds will become E/ESE and increase to 5-10 KT by mid-morning before becoming light once again tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 88 75 88 76 / 50 50 90 60 MCO 91 76 91 75 / 80 40 90 50 MLB 89 77 89 77 / 60 50 80 60 VRB 91 75 90 74 / 60 50 80 60 LEE 89 76 90 76 / 80 40 90 40 SFB 90 76 90 76 / 70 40 90 50 ORL 91 76 91 76 / 80 40 90 50 FPR 90 75 90 74 / 60 50 80 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1240741 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:42 AM 08.Aug.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 638 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will move off the coast of New England today. Meanwhile, low pressure off the southeast coast will slowly drift northeast into Saturday and farther offshore from Sunday into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 305 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Clouds continue to increase through the day with persistent easterly flow. - Best chances for rain showers remain across the SE. Early morning weather analysis shows an inverted coastal trough off the SC coast has become more defined this evening with the resulting gradient maintaining NE surface winds across the area. Most of the area remains mostly clear. However, clouds have begun to increase across the SE as the weak surface low continues to shift north. Temperatures this morning are in the middle to lower 60s inland and upper 60s to lower 70s along the coast. Throughout the day the low pressure off the coast will continue to slowly strengthen and move north pushing the high pressure further off the New England coast. In adjacent to the low moving north it will bring in additional moisture across the area with the best moisture residing across the SE. Latest model guidance does show PW values reaching back between 1.6 to 1.8" across SE VA and NE NC. Showers and a possible rumble of thunder is possible across the SE. However, confidence in thunder is low due to lack of heating and instability. The best chance of these showers will be in the afternoon and pops are between 40 to 50% across the SE. The rest of the area should remain dry as the drier air holds in place as the low moves north and off the coast. Temperature wise highs today have been nudged down a degree or two due to the increase of clouds through the day. Sky`s will remain mostly cloudy to cloudy across the SE and partly cloudy to mostly cloudy further west. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The low pressure will begin to move east tonight but clouds will continue to linger along the coast keeping temperatures slightly warmer than further inland. Lows tonight will be in the lower to middle 60s inland and upper 60s to lower 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Warmer and drier weather conditions return this weekend. By Saturday, a strong 500mb ridge aloft will start to move back over the area. While at the surface the low pressure will move further off the coast allowing for a high pressure to move over the area. This high pressure and ridge will bring in warmer and drier air across the area Saturday. There is still a slight chance of Pops across the SE however, model guidance continues to lower the chances as the high moves in slightly faster. Sky`s will remain partly cloudy through the day and temperatures will be in the lower 80s across the area. By Sunday, the ridge will be centered over the area well as the surface the high pressure. This will allow for seasonable August temperatures to return to the area as well suppressing the chance of showers. Sky`s will remain mostly clear with highs for Sunday will be in the middle to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 305 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Seasonable temperatures continue to make a return by early next week. - Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms return to the area by early next week. Latest 00z ensemble guidance continues to be in decent agreement. The 500mb ridge will continue to be over the area through early next week. While at the surface the high pressure will continue to settle over he area. Then by mid to late next week a weak trough over the Midwest will start to impinge on the ridge. High temperatures for Monday will be back to seasonable with mid 80s to lower 90s. Then Tuesday through Thursday temperatures will increase to slightly above normal with lower to mid 90s. There is not much support at the sfc or aloft for convection, so PoPs are generally 20% or less, perhaps 25-30% by Thursday as the aforementioned upper trough breaks down the ridge. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 638 AM EDT Friday... A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions prevail across all terminals. Across RIC this morning sky remain mostly clear however some patchy fog as developed across the terminal leading to MVFR cigs. SBY remains VFR this morning with clear sky. Terminals down across the SE currently have a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions as CIGS switch between SCT and BKN. Winds inland remain calm while across the coastal zone winds continue to come out of the NE between 10 to 15 kt with gusts upwards of 20kt. Through the day RIC and SBY should remain VFR with some SCT to BKN cloud cover moving over the terminals. There is a possibility that there could be a brief period of MVFR CIGS across RIC this morning as some clouds begin to develop just to the north. A tempo group has been added between 12 to 14z this morning. Across the SE CIGS should remain MVFR through the day as the clouds continue to increase as a low develops off the coast later today. There is also a chance of shower this afternoon however, the chances of showers continue to lower as the coastal low could be further off the coast than expected. Winds will increase across all terminals later this morning out of the east between 10 to 15 kt with gusts upwards of 20 kts along the coast. Outlook: High pressure builds S into the region this weekend into early next week as low pressure moves offshore. This will bring mainly dry and VFR conditions. && .MARINE... As of 305 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - SCA conditions prevail through at least early Saturday. - Rough surf conditions continue through Saturday, causing the High Rip Risk. An elevated rip current risk will likely continue through Sunday. - Benign marine conditions are expected from Monday through at least the middle of next week as winds become S-SE. 1026mb high pressure is centered near Nova Scotia early this morning, with a weak inverted trough off the Southeast coast. The elevated ENE-NE wind (15-20kt with gusts to 25kt) continues, with 5- 7ft seas/3-5ft waves. High pressure drifts slightly to the S today while low pressure is progged to develop and deepen well off the VA/NC coast. This will allow for the pressure gradient to tighten this afternoon/evening. The 00z guidance has come up by a couple of knots with respect to wind speeds later today. As such, NE winds are forecast to increase to 15-25kt (highest across the lower bay and SE VA coastal waters). Gusts up to 25-30kt are expected. Winds are progged to gradually decrease from tonight through the weekend as the high builds toward the waters and the low offshore moves farther to the E/NE. SCAs have been extended through this evening for the Currituck Sound and lower James, through tonight for the lower Bay, and Saturday morning for the mouth of the Bay. SCAs remain in effect through Saturday aftn for the ocean S of Cape Charles (and through midday Sat for the northern 3 ocean zones). Gusts to 20kt are likely on the upper rivers today, but have opted to hold off on SCAs attm. NE winds just under SCA criteria are expected on Saturday across all zones, with onshore winds diminishing to ~10kt by Sunday. Sub-SCA from Mon-Wed as winds turn back to the south. Rough nearshore surf and a high risk of rip current will continue through Saturday. Nearshore waves of 4-7ft are expected today with 3- 5ft Saturday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 455 AM EDT Friday... Persistent NE flow will allow for tides to remain elevated across the area. However, CBOFS is forecasting a rather strong ebb tide at the mouth of the bay later this morning into the afternoon despite the onshore flow/elevated seas, with a modest flood tide this evening. Nuisance flooding occurred (or is occurring) with the current high tide cycle. Not expecting enough tidal flooding to warrant statements for today`s high tide...as it is the lower of the two astronomical high tide cycles. However, will continue to watch the high tide cycle tonight for potential nuisance to low-end minor flooding as it is the higher astronomical tide and winds/seas may increase a bit later today. Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for the bayside of the MD Eastern Shore until 8 AM. Have issued a new round of statements for the rest of the area bordering the bay/ocean/tidal rivers (except Worcester County, MD) for the high tide this evening/tonight. Will likely issue a new statement for the MD Eastern Shore after the current one expires later this morning. Water levels gradually fall this weekend as winds/seas slowly subside, but could remain elevated through Saturday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630- 631-633-638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ632. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658. && $$ |
| #1240740 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:12 AM 08.Aug.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 507 AM AST Fri Aug 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Another warm day is expected across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico with highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s over urban and coastal areas. * Low to moderate concetrations of Saharan dust particles will promote hazy skies and deteriorated air quality across the region. * Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected each day across portions of central and western Puerto Rico. * The U.S. Virgin Islands can expect a mix of sunshine and passing showers, mainly during the morning hours. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday... Current satellite derived precipitable water (PWAT) values indicate below normal moisture over the islands (1.34 to 1.51 in) with the lowest values over the SW quadrant of Puerto Rico and the highest values over eastern Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Since midnight, radar estimated accumulations over land have been minimal to locally low, mainly over St. Thomas, St. John, Vieques and north-central to eastern Puerto Rico. This was due to overnight passing showers under ENE steering flow. Patches of drier air and low level moisture will continue to reach the islands during the period, under ENE flow today and ESE flow on Saturday and Sunday, with most available moisture remaining below 800 mb. PWAT values over 2 inches will likely be limited to afternoon convection during the period. Notable advective patches of moistures (with PWAT values around 1.85 in) are forecast to arrive by tonight into early tomorrow and by late Sunday night and into the long term period. An upper low will continue over the region to end the week, moving away on Sunday, leaving ridging aloft. In general the diurnal pattern of morning and night passing showers across windward areas of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, and isolated to scattered afternoon convection, mainly over western Puerto Rico, will continue. Sea breeze convergence, local effects, and diurnal heating will promote this afternoon shower and t-storm activity over western PR each afternoon with the risk of excessive rainfall being limited to elevated. Steering flow during the period can promote convective activity over more W-SW PR today and W-NW PR on Saturday and Sunday, with lines of showers also forming downwind of El Yunque and the USVI. A plume of Saharan Dust will continue to affect the islands during the next couple of days bringing up to locally moderate concentrations during the weekend. This can deteriorate air quality and promote hazy skies. Maximum temperatures will still reach the upper 80s to low 90s over urban and coastal areas of the islands, with heat indices surpassing 105F. A Heat Advisory is in effect today from 10 AM to 5 PM AST for urban and coastal areas of Puerto Rico. A limited heat threat is also present today for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques and Culebra. Minimum temperatures will be in the upper 70s and low 80s at coastal and urban areas, and the upper 50s to low 70s at higher elevations. Similar heat conditions are forecast for the rest of the short term period, with a limited to elevated heat risk. .LONG TERM...Monday through Friday... The uncertainty for the long term forecast continues regards the development of a tropical wave, Invest 96L, located over the central tropical Atlantic with a formation chance of 60% in the next 7 days. The latest model guidances continues to suggest the passage of the wave to the northeast of the region and away over the open Atlantic waters on Monday. However, trailing moisture associated with this system will reach the islands by early Tuesday. Therefore, enhancing the potential to observe showers and isolated thunderstorms across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. By Wednesday, a mid-to-upper level ridge will place over the northeastern Caribbean promoting drier and stable conditions aloft. A dense Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is expected to arrive into the region from mid-week onwards, with moderate to high concentrations of Saharan dust particles. Under the aforementioned conditions, limited shower activity is anticipated during this period. The 925 mb temperatures will remain at normal to above-normal climatological values for next week. Highs will remain in the upper 80s to low 90s along the coastal and urban areas, and from the low to mid 80s in the higher elevations. Heat indices will continue over the 100 degrees Fahrenheit each day. Plan accordingly if planning to do outdoor activities under sun exposure. By the end of the workweek, model guidances are suggesting a strong tropical wave to move into the central Atlantic. However, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding the future of this system as it is too early to specify possible impacts, if any, to our region. Residents and visitors are strongly encouraged to stay informed and monitor future forecasts as we move into next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Mainly VFR conditions through the forecast period. Passing SHRA will continue to move through the region, moving over the VCTY of TIST, TISX, TJSJ and TJBQ during the morning hours. ENE flow up to 15 to 20 kts with higher gusts will steer these SHRA and promote SHRA/ISOL TSRA mainly near the vicinity of TJBQ and possibly TJPS at around 08/17z to 08/22z. Winds decreasing after 08/22Z while gradually veering to become more ESE. && .MARINE... Mariners can expect a moderate to fresh easterly wind flow generating moderate chops across the local waters. Afternoon convective activity will produce showers and thunderstorms across the Mona Passage each day. An induced surface trough will move near the region by Saturday or Sunday, increasing the available moisture and the potential for showers and thunderstorms across the local waters. && .BEACH FORECAST... Today, there is a low risk of rip currents at all beaches in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. However, it`s important to note that even with a low risk, life-threatening rip currents can still occur near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. This low risk is expected to continue until early Sunday, when a moderate risk of rip currents is anticipated to return along the north- central coast of Puerto Rico. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001>005-007-008-010-011. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1240739 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 08.Aug.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 455 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will move off the coast of New England today. Meanwhile, low pressure off the southeast coast will slowly drift northeast into Saturday and farther offshore from Sunday into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 305 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Clouds continue to increase through the day with persistent easterly flow. - Best chances for rain showers remain across the SE. Early morning weather analysis shows an inverted coastal trough off the SC coast has become more defined this evening with the resulting gradient maintaining NE surface winds across the area. Most of the area remains clear of clouds. However, clouds have begun to increase across the SE as the weak surface low continues to shift north. Temperatures this morning are in the middle to upper 60s in;and and lower 70s along the immediate coast. Temperatures inland are expected to drop into the lower 60s by sunrise. However, along the coast temperatures may drop a degree or two but with the persistent onshore flow, this will keep temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s this morning. Throughout the day the low pressure off the coast will continue to slowly strengthen and move north pushing the high pressure further off the New England coast. In adjacent to the low moving north it will bring in additional moisture across the area with the best moisture residing across the SE. Latest model guidance does show PW values reaching back between 1.6 to 1.8" across SE VA and NE NC. Showers and a possible rumble of thunder is possible across the SE. However, confidence in thunder is low due to lack of heating and instability. The best chance of these showers will be in the afternoon and pops are between 40 to 50% across the SE. The rest of the area should remain dry as the drier air holds in place as the low moves north and off the coast. Temperature wise highs today have been nudged down a degree or two due to the increase of clouds through the day. Sky`s will remain mostly cloudy to cloudy across the SE and partly cloudy to mostly cloudy further west. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The low pressure will begin to move east tonight but clouds will continue to linger along the coast keeping temperatures slightly warmer than further inland. Lows tonight will be in the lower to middle 60s inland and upper 60s to lower 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Warmer and drier weather conditions return this weekend. By Saturday, a strong 500mb ridge aloft will start to move back over the area. While at the surface the low pressure will move further off the coast allowing for a high pressure to move over the area. This high pressure and ridge will bring in warmer and drier air across the area Saturday. There is still a slight chance of Pops across the SE however, model guidance continues to lower the chances as the high moves in slightly faster. Sky`s will remain partly cloudy through the day and temperatures will be in the lower 80s across the area. By Sunday, the ridge will be centered over the area well as the surface the high pressure. This will allow for seasonable August temperatures to return to the area as well suppressing the chance of showers. Sky`s will remain mostly clear with highs for Sunday will be in the middle to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 305 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Seasonable temperatures continue to make a return by early next week. - Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms return to the area by early next week. Latest 00z ensemble guidance continues to be in decent agreement. The 500mb ridge will continue to be over the area through early next week. While at the surface the high pressure will continue to settle over he area. Then by mid to late next week a weak trough over the Midwest will start to impinge on the ridge. High temperatures for Monday will be back to seasonable with mid 80s to lower 90s. Then Tuesday through Thursday temperatures will increase to slightly above normal with lower to mid 90s. There is not much support at the sfc or aloft for convection, so PoPs are generally 20% or less, perhaps 25-30% by Thursday as the aforementioned upper trough breaks down the ridge. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 131 AM EDT Friday... A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions prevail across all terminals early this morning. ACross the piedmont skies remain mostly clear with some SCT low level clouds. However, some patch ground fog has moved into place causing some MVFR conditions across RIC. Across the SE terminals strong onshore flow has lead to VFR Vis and MVFR Cigs. Across the north SBY remains VFR as all flight restrictions stay to the south due to the broad coastal low. High pressure remains anchored over Atlantic Canada this morning, then drifts offshore of the New England coast into Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure develops well offshore of the NC Outer Banks. The resultant E-NE flow will persist and allow for MVFR conditions (mainly CIGs) to continue along the coast, and redevelop at KRIC, with an increased chances for showers across SE VA and NE NC Friday afternoon. There is a potential for a brief period of IFR cigs at RIC around 12z Friday, but have held out for now due to short duration and model trends/low forecast confidence. Did add a brief period of IFR via Tempo at KECG around and just after sunrise. Winds remain ENE 8-12kt Friday with gusts up to 20kt along the coast in the late morning and afternoon. Outlook: High pressure builds S into the region this weekend into early next week as low pressure moves offshore. This will bring mainly dry and VFR conditions. && .MARINE... As of 305 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - SCA conditions prevail through at least early Saturday. - Rough surf conditions continue through Saturday, causing the High Rip Risk. An elevated rip current risk will likely continue through Sunday. - Benign marine conditions are expected from Monday through at least the middle of next week as winds become S-SE. 1026mb high pressure is centered near Nova Scotia early this morning, with a weak inverted trough off the Southeast coast. The elevated ENE-NE wind (15-20kt with gusts to 25kt) continues, with 5- 7ft seas/3-5ft waves. High pressure drifts slightly to the S today while low pressure is progged to develop and deepen well off the VA/NC coast. This will allow for the pressure gradient to tighten this afternoon/evening. The 00z guidance has come up by a couple of knots with respect to wind speeds later today. As such, NE winds are forecast to increase to 15-25kt (highest across the lower bay and SE VA coastal waters). Gusts up to 25-30kt are expected. Winds are progged to gradually decrease from tonight through the weekend as the high builds toward the waters and the low offshore moves farther to the E/NE. SCAs have been extended through this evening for the Currituck Sound and lower James, through tonight for the lower Bay, and Saturday morning for the mouth of the Bay. SCAs remain in effect through Saturday aftn for the ocean S of Cape Charles (and through midday Sat for the northern 3 ocean zones). Gusts to 20kt are likely on the upper rivers today, but have opted to hold off on SCAs attm. NE winds just under SCA criteria are expected on Saturday across all zones, with onshore winds diminishing to ~10kt by Sunday. Sub-SCA from Mon-Wed as winds turn back to the south. Rough nearshore surf and a high risk of rip current will continue through Saturday. Nearshore waves of 4-7ft are expected today with 3- 5ft Saturday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 455 AM EDT Friday... Persistent NE flow will allow for tides to remain elevated across the area. However, CBOFS is forecasting a rather strong ebb tide at the mouth of the bay later this morning into the afternoon despite the onshore flow/elevated seas, with a modest flood tide this evening. Nuisance flooding occurred (or is occurring) with the current high tide cycle. Not expecting enough tidal flooding to warrant statements for today`s high tide...as it is the lower of the two astronomical high tide cycles. However, will continue to watch the high tide cycle tonight for potential nuisance to low-end minor flooding as it is the higher astronomical tide and winds/seas may increase a bit later today. Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for the bayside of the MD Eastern Shore until 8 AM. Have issued a new round of statements for the rest of the area bordering the bay/ocean/tidal rivers (except Worcester County, MD) for the high tide this evening/tonight. Will likely issue a new statement for the MD Eastern Shore after the current one expires later this morning. Water levels gradually fall this weekend as winds/seas slowly subside, but could remain elevated through Saturday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630- 631-633-638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ632. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658. && $$ |
| #1240738 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 08.Aug.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 432 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 A tropical wave continues to slowly traverse eastward through the Keys this morning. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) mesoanalysis page shows an inverted surface trough across the Keys this morning. The axis of this trough is over the westernmost waters and about to move further into the Gulf. This places the Keys on the backside of the tropical wave this morning. KBYX radar is showing scattered showers moving from southeast to northwest across the western waters with the first thunderstorm in a number of hours just showing up across the offshore Gulf waters to the north of S Tower. In addition, the radar reflectivity fields shows an MCV or mesoscale convective vortex across the south- central distant Straits of Florida to just north of Cuba. This may most likely be the catalyst for the convection and wet day ahead! Also, GOES East Total Precipitable Water (TPW) shows a deep plume of PWAT values over 2 inches across all the Keys. This is leading to quite a juicy atmosphere out there meaning showers and thunderstorms won`t be hard to come by. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower to mid 80s and dew points in the mid 70s. The cool spot this morning is once again Big Pine Key coming in at 78 degrees. Since the axis of the tropical wave is not off to our west, marine platforms surrounding the Keys are observing east to southeast breezes near 10 knots and Island Chain communities observing near 10 mph. .FORECAST... The name of the game going forward for today will be the tropical wave and aforementioned MCV- Mesoscale Convective Vortex moving through the Keys this morning. Due to the high PWAT values mentioned in the discussion above, residual boundaries from earlier convection, and the MCV, we decided to raise the PoPs for today to 80% which is an increase from the previous 70%. In addition, model guidance shows a fair amount of upper level vorticity lobes rotating through the Keys today and tonight. Based on this, anticipating today to be quite an active day with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. Some of the storms may bring quick heavy rainfall with them on the order of 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts where any activity persists. This tropical wave will continue to meander across the western portions of the Keys resulting in above normal rain chances continuing through the weekend. Therefore, 60% is forecast for tonight and Saturday with 50% for Saturday night and Sunday as only slightly drier air begins to infiltrate the Keys over the weekend. Late Sunday, the tropical wave will finally get the boot and get pushed off to the west as surface ridging begins to build into the region. Ridging will also start to nudge in aloft leading to a return to the more typical summertime pattern for early to the middle of next week. However, given the moisture is expected to still remain quite plentiful, 40% PoPs remain for much of next week which is slightly above normal for this time of the year. Temperatures will remain above normal through the period with highs near 90 degrees to the lower 90s and overnight lows in the lower 80s with mid 80s not completely ruled out. Typical humidity is expected through the extended with dew points remaining in the mid to upper 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a tropical wave will continue slowly progressing westward through the Keys today through Saturday. This will promote light to gentle east to southeast breezes (occasionally light to moderate breezes) as well as above normal rain and thunder chances. As the wave continues progressing further into the Gulf heading through the weekend, surface high pressure across the Atlantic will slowly build into the Keys. This will result in gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes for early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 Widely scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms will develop and move across the island terminals this morning and continue into the afternoon. Exact coverage and timing remain uncertain and as such will keep VCSH and amend for thunderstorms as we get closer to the event. Expect MVFR or brief IFR conditions with gusty erratic winds in the heavier showers and thunderstorms. && .CLIMATE... On this day in In 1916, the daily record rainfall of 1.92" was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871. Also, the daily record rainfall of 0.94" was recorded in Marathon set back on this date in 1955. Rainfall records for Marathon date back to June 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 88 80 89 81 / 80 60 60 50 Marathon 87 80 89 81 / 80 60 60 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1240736 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:12 AM 08.Aug.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 304 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will move off the coast of New England today. Meanwhile, low pressure off the southeast coast will slowly drift northeast into Saturday and farther offshore from Sunday into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 305 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Clouds continue to increase through the day with persistent easterly flow. - Best chances for rain showers remain across the SE. Early morning weather analysis shows an inverted coastal trough off the SC coast has become more defined this evening with the resulting gradient maintaining NE surface winds across the area. Most of the area remains clear of clouds. However, clouds have begun to increase across the SE as the weak surface low continues to shift north. Temperatures this morning are in the middle to upper 60s in;and and lower 70s along the immediate coast. Temperatures inland are expected to drop into the lower 60s by sunrise. However, along the coast temperatures may drop a degree or two but with the persistent onshore flow, this will keep temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s this morning. Throughout the day the low pressure off the coast will continue to slowly strengthen and move north pushing the high pressure further off the New England coast. In adjacent to the low moving north it will bring in additional moisture across the area with the best moisture residing across the SE. Latest model guidance does show PW values reaching back between 1.6 to 1.8" across SE VA and NE NC. Showers and a possible rumble of thunder is possible across the SE. However, confidence in thunder is low due to lack of heating and instability. The best chance of these showers will be in the afternoon and pops are between 40 to 50% across the SE. The rest of the area should remain dry as the drier air holds in place as the low moves north and off the coast. Temperature wise highs today have been nudged down a degree or two due to the increase of clouds through the day. Sky`s will remain mostly cloudy to cloudy across the SE and partly cloudy to mostly cloudy further west. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The low pressure will begin to move east tonight but clouds will continue to linger along the coast keeping temperatures slightly warmer than further inland. Lows tonight will be in the lower to middle 60s inland and upper 60s to lower 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Warmer and drier weather conditions return this weekend. By Saturday, a strong 500mb ridge aloft will start to move back over the area. While at the surface the low pressure will move further off the coast allowing for a high pressure to move over the area. This high pressure and ridge will bring in warmer and drier air across the area Saturday. There is still a slight chance of Pops across the SE however, model guidance continues to lower the chances as the high moves in slightly faster. Sky`s will remain partly cloudy through the day and temperatures will be in the lower 80s across the area. By Sunday, the ridge will be centered over the area well as the surface the high pressure. This will allow for seasonable August temperatures to return to the area as well suppressing the chance of showers. Sky`s will remain mostly clear with highs for Sunday will be in the middle to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 305 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Seasonable temperatures continue to make a return by early next week. - Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms return to the area by early next week. Latest 00z ensemble guidance continues to be in decent agreement. The 500mb ridge will continue to be over the area through early next week. While at the surface the high pressure will continue to settle over he area. Then by mid to late next week a weak trough over the Midwest will start to impinge on the ridge. High temperatures for Monday will be back to seasonable with mid 80s to lower 90s. Then Tuesday through Thursday temperatures will increase to slightly above normal with lower to mid 90s. There is not much support at the sfc or aloft for convection, so PoPs are generally 20% or less, perhaps 25-30% by Thursday as the aforementioned upper trough breaks down the ridge. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 131 AM EDT Friday... A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions prevail across all terminals early this morning. ACross the piedmont skies remain mostly clear with some SCT low level clouds. However, some patch ground fog has moved into place causing some MVFR conditions across RIC. Across the SE terminals strong onshore flow has lead to VFR Vis and MVFR Cigs. Across the north SBY remains VFR as all flight restrictions stay to the south due to the broad coastal low. High pressure remains anchored over Atlantic Canada this morning, then drifts offshore of the New England coast into Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure develops well offshore of the NC Outer Banks. The resultant E-NE flow will persist and allow for MVFR conditions (mainly CIGs) to continue along the coast, and redevelop at KRIC, with an increased chances for showers across SE VA and NE NC Friday afternoon. There is a potential for a brief period of IFR cigs at RIC around 12z Friday, but have held out for now due to short duration and model trends/low forecast confidence. Did add a brief period of IFR via Tempo at KECG around and just after sunrise. Winds remain ENE 8-12kt Friday with gusts up to 20kt along the coast in the late morning and afternoon. Outlook: High pressure builds S into the region this weekend into early next week as low pressure moves offshore. This will bring mainly dry and VFR conditions. && .MARINE... As of 305 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - SCA conditions prevail through at least early Saturday. - Rough surf conditions continue through Saturday, causing the High Rip Risk. An elevated rip current risk will likely continue through Sunday. - Benign marine conditions are expected from Monday through at least the middle of next week as winds become S-SE. 1026mb high pressure is centered near Nova Scotia early this morning, with a weak inverted trough off the Southeast coast. The elevated ENE-NE wind (15-20kt with gusts to 25kt) continues, with 5- 7ft seas/3-5ft waves. High pressure drifts slightly to the S today while low pressure is progged to develop and deepen well off the VA/NC coast. This will allow for the pressure gradient to tighten this afternoon/evening. The 00z guidance has come up by a couple of knots with respect to wind speeds later today. As such, NE winds are forecast to increase to 15-25kt (highest across the lower bay and SE VA coastal waters). Gusts up to 25-30kt are expected. Winds are progged to gradually decrease from tonight through the weekend as the high builds toward the waters and the low offshore moves farther to the E/NE. SCAs have been extended through this evening for the Currituck Sound and lower James, through tonight for the lower Bay, and Saturday morning for the mouth of the Bay. SCAs remain in effect through Saturday aftn for the ocean S of Cape Charles (and through midday Sat for the northern 3 ocean zones). Gusts to 20kt are likely on the upper rivers today, but have opted to hold off on SCAs attm. NE winds just under SCA criteria are expected on Saturday across all zones, with onshore winds diminishing to ~10kt by Sunday. Sub-SCA from Mon-Wed as winds turn back to the south. Rough nearshore surf and a high risk of rip current will continue through Saturday. Nearshore waves of 4-7ft are expected today with 3- 5ft Saturday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 305 AM EDT Friday... Persistent NE flow will allow for tides to remain elevated across the area. However, CBOFS is forecasting a rather strong ebb tide at the mouth of the bay later this morning into the afternoon despite the onshore flow/elevated seas, with a modest flood tide this evening. Nuisance flooding occurred (or is occurring) with the current high tide cycle. Not expecting enough tidal flooding to warrant statements for today`s high tide...as it is the lower of the two astronomical high tide cycles. However, will continue to watch the high tide cycle tonight for potential nuisance to low-end minor flooding as it is the higher astronomical tide and winds/seas may increase a bit later today. Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for most coastal counties for the current high tide, but will expire between now and mid morning. Will allow the day shift to assess the need for statements/localized advisories for tonight`s high tide. But, it appears that at least another round of statements will likely be needed for much of the area bordering the bay/tidal rivers in addition to the Atlantic coast of SE VA. Water levels gradually fall this weekend as winds/seas slowly subside, but could remain elevated through Saturday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630- 631-633-638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ632. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658. && $$ |
| #1240733 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:09 AM 08.Aug.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 303 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A front will linger south of the area this weekend, while high pressure remains centered well to the north. Low pressure off the Southeast U.S. coast will track to the northeast through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Prior to Daybreak: High pressure will remain wedged across the region through the night, supporting a northerly low-lvl flow and low clouds locally. Much like the previous night, low stratus is expected to spread slowly south across Southeast South Carolina during the next couple hours, entering parts of Southeast Georgia prior to sunrise. Reductions to sfc visibilities are unlikely as a steady 15-20 kt 1000mb geostrophic persists through the night. Lows should range in the upper 60s inland to low-mid 70s near the coast. Today: A wedge of high pressure will remain in place across Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia north of a front positioned across northern Florida, strongest across the interior and north of the local area, while low pressure develops well off the Mid-Atlantic coast and tracks northeast away from the Southeast United States. This should maintain abundant clouds (some low) across the local area during morning hours, although drier air in the mid-lvls will continue to filter across the region as an upper low meanders across the Carolinas before nudging offshore late day. North-northeast flow will keep afternoon highs below normal, but some breaks in clouds are possible late day, suggesting highs in the low-mid 80s, warmest across Southeast Georgia. Should overcast skies remain, high temps will likely need to be reduced a few degrees. Much like previous days, h5 vort energy associated with the mid-lvl low should provide sufficient forcing across the region for few to scattered showers/thunderstorms across the local area during afternoon hours (higher coverage possible along the beaches), but a slow start to warming under clouds and the strength of the wedge inland could confine/limit convection to coastal areas only where modest instability (SBCAPE 1200-1500 J/kg) and PWATs ~2.0 inches reside. Tonight: Any shower/thunderstorm activity should wane/dissipate during early evening hours, likely remaining across coastal waters during the night where highest instability/moisture reside. Sfc high pressure looks to remain locked in across the region once again with a northerly flow persisting locally. This could usher in another round of low clouds late night, although the bulk of guidance suggests a lessor extent/duration, especially across southern areas. Low temps should range in the upper 60s inland to low-mid 70s near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A wedge of high pressure at the surface will prevail across the eastern side of the Appalachian Mountains, resulting in an interesting August CAD set up. High temperatures will remain below normal through the weekend as cloud cover associated with the wedge holds strong, with highs in the low to mid 80s. A stalled front to the south of the forecast area will remain a focus of showers and thunderstorms, providing ample moisture across the region as shown by forecast PWATs 2"+. There is some disagreement in forecast models at how much instability will be available this weekend, with the ECMWF showing CAPE values upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg and the GFS only depicting around 500 J/kg. Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon, likely triggering off of the afternoon sea breeze and then any lingering outflow boundaries. Given little flow aloft, there is the potential for heavy rainfall as storm motions will likely be slow. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Ridging aloft will begin to build into the region from the west, with heights increasing through the week. As this ridge strengthens temperatures will increase, reaching the low to mid 90s by Thursday. This pattern should yield a typical summer-time pattern with afternoon thunderstorms and hot and humid conditions making a return. Heat index values will return to triple digits Wednesday and Thursday, with 100-105F in the forecast. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... KCHS/KJZI: Periods and/or TEMPO IFR conditions are likely through sunrise, eventually improving to MVFR conditions by mid morning (~14Z) at both terminals, then VFR during the afternoon. MVFR cigs could hold at the CHS terminal for a few hours longer (until ~20Z). VFR conditions should then prevail for the remainder of the afternoon into the evening at both terminals. There are some suggestions that MVFR cigs could return during the night (more likely at CHS), but after 06Z Saturday. KSAV: Periods of MVFR and/or TEMPO IFR conditions are likely through sunrise, eventually improving to MVFR conditions only by mid morning (~13Z), then VFR late morning through the remainder of the TAF period. There are some suggestions that MVFR cigs could return during the night, but after 06Z Saturday. Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions will be possible through the weekend and into early next week with afternoon showers/thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: Overall, the setup remains similar to that experienced the past few days with high pressure entrenched across the region, a front positioned south of the local area, and low pressure developing and shifting north-northeast and away from the region well offshore. This should maintain a 10-15 kt north- northeasterly wind across local waters for much of the day and night, although a few gusts up to 20 kt could return across South Carolina nearshore waters during the overnight period. Seas will generally range between 2-3 ft. Saturday through Wednesday: A ridge will remain centered over the central Carolinas at the surface, while to the east a broad trough will remain over the Gulf Stream. A spot low associated with the broad trough is being monitored by the National Hurricane Center, and currently has a 10% chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours and 20% in the next 7 days. Ensemble models are in agreement keeping this feature offshore of the southeastern coast. Winds on Saturday will be NE, generally around 15 knots with some occasional gusts to 20 knots. As the spot low progresses northeastward, winds will shift on Sunday to E/SE around 10 to 15 knots. Seas should average 2 to 3 ft through the period. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Upcoming full moon (8/9) and lunar perigee (8/14), will contribute to increasing astronomical tide values in the coming days. At Charleston, the astronomical evening high tide will rise to just over 6 ft MLLW starting with this evening`s (Friday) high tide. Observed water levels within the CHS Harbor could approach the minor coastal flood threshold as soon as this evening`s (Friday) high tide (near 7 ft MLLW), with a greater potential for exceeding 7 ft MLLW this weekend into early next week. Coastal Flood Advisories could be needed, mainly for the Charleston and Colleton County coasts. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1240734 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:09 AM 08.Aug.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 303 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An area of weak low pressure will move along the Southeast coast late this week and into this weekend, which will bring multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall to ENC. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 250 AM Fri...WEather pattern remains stagnant across eastern NC this morning as weak upper low continues to meander over the Carolinas, buttressed by ridging over the western Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure wedge continues to hold strong over much of the mid-Atlantic and southeast while coastal trough continues to linger offshore. Rinse and repeat forecast on deck today with mainly cloudy conditions persisting. Northeasterly winds will once again be quite breezy as pressure gradient is pinched with weak low pressure offshore migrating northeast, and some gusts to 25 mph are possible across the coastal plain and up to 30 mph at times across the Outer Banks. Hi-res guidance has backed off on previous advertisements of heavy rainfall, and the updated forecast now calls for only scattered showers and an odd thunderstorm or two, peaking this afternoon and early evening along coastal locales. Average rainfall amounts should be under a quarter inch, but if more robust convection can develop some totals in excess of an inch are possible. Highs will reach the upper 70s to low 80s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Fri...Persistence forecast for tonight with little changed pattern. Precipitation ebbs with loss of heating today but northeast flow persists with lowering stratus through the morning. In spots where winds decouple environment is favorable for some patchy fog development...this is most likely across the coastal plain but confidence in this part of the forecast is low. Lows in the low 70s inland, mid 70s along the water. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 3 AM Fri... Key Messages - Below normal conditions continue this weekend - Shower and thunderstorm coverage become more scattered this weekend through mid next week - More typical summer pattern returns Monday through mid next week By Saturday drier high pressure will rebuild down the Eastern Seaboard as low pressure passes by well offshore. Rain chances will hinge on the strength and dryness of the cool air advection coming in from the north. With more of the guidance showing a drier solution, precip chances are decreasing for Saturday. Similar conditions are anticipated Sunday with N/NE flow over the area, and uncertainty if the incoming airmass will be dry enough to limit afternoon convection. High pressure will shift offshore Monday and a more typical summer pattern will develop through mid next week. Precip chances will be near climo with upper level ridging moving over the region. Slightly high precip chances (40-60%) are possible Monday and Tuesday afternoon as it look like the upper level ridge will take some time to strengthen. Heat and humidity will build each day, with highs reaching upper 80s to low 90s, and peak heat indices approaching 100 degrees. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 06z Sat/... As of 305 AM Fri... Primarily MVFR conditions prevail across terminals this morning as region remains stuck under northeast flow in a cold air damming pattern. Expecting MVFR to hold strong through most of the period, with some transient lowering to IFR just before dawn. Like yesterday, showers and a stray thunderstorm or two expected to develop in the afternoon with highest chances along the coast. PROB30 groups were carried over from previous TAFs. Breezier conditions expected compared to yesterday with gusts up to 20 kt across the coastal plain and 25-30 kt for OBX terminals. Risk of IFR increases again tonight into Sat AM as winds weaken once again. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 3 AM Fri...Precip coverage becomes more scattered this weekend with a slight uptick early next week, and some brief periods of sub-VFR conditions will be possible at times. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 3 AM Fri... - SCAs continue through the period for most of the nearshore waters and eastern sounds Winds remain out of the ENE/NE at 15-25 kts with some gusts to 25-30 kts for much of the coastal waters and eastern sounds. Seas continue at 6-7 ft north of Ocracoke Inlet, with 6 ft possibly down to Cape Lookout now. Winds will remain mostly constant today, though there will be a shift to the NNE as pressure passes by offshore. Winds will subside slightly overnight while seas remain mostly 5-7 ft north of Cape Lookout, and 3-5 to the south. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 3 AM Fri... Key Messages - Small craft conditions linger Saturday due to hazardous seas NNE winds will continue to subside Saturday to 10-20 kts, while seas remain 4-6 ft north of Ocracoke Inlet. By Sunday winds will NE 10-15 kts with seas 3-5 ft. Winds become generally easterly Monday, and then SE Tuesday at around 5-15 kts. Seas continue to subside to 2-4 ft Tuesday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ131-230- 231. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ135-156. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154. && $$ |
| #1240735 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:09 AM 08.Aug.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 304 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring warm days and comfortably cool nights through Saturday. Warming trend Sunday with some 90 degree temps in the interior, then an extended period of heat with moderate humidity levels is likely for much of next week, especially away from the south coast. A dry pattern overall is expected with increasing chances for afternoon showers or storms later in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Key Messages: * Dry and seasonably warm with low humidity High pres in control across New Eng will bring another spectacular summer day with sunshine, warm temps, light winds and low humidity. Any convection will be confined to northern New Eng where better moisture and instability resides. Not much change in low level temps so expect highs in the lower 80s, except upper 70s along the immediate coast where sea-breezes develop. Dewpoints at max heating will drop into the upper 40s and lower 50s so humidity levels will be low. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Key Messages: * Dry and comfortably cool tonight * Seasonably warm with low humidity Saturday No change in the pattern with high pres remaining in control as upper ridge builds east from the Gt Lakes. Good radiational cooling tonight under clear skies and light-calm winds will result in lows in the 50s with some upper 40s in low-lying areas where patchy fog is possible. Then nice recovery Saturday under full sunshine and slight warming aloft will result in highs in the low-mid 80s, with upper 70s along the immediate coast as sea-breezes develop again. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Messages: * Extended period of heat through much of next week with moderate humidity levels * A few showers or t-storms possible mid-late week, but dry pattern overall Upper level ridge building over the NE with persistent surface high pres in the western Atlc will result in an extended period of heat which may last through the upcoming week. But confidence decreases late in the week given spread among deterministic guidance regarding whether the ridge will break down. The heat begins on Sunday in the interior where 90 degree temps possible, then more widespread temps into the 90s for much of next week. High confidence through Wed then decreasing confidence. NBM is showing 60-85% probs of 90+ next week away from the south coast. The worst of the heat is expected in the interior as daily sea-breezes may temper the heat somewhat near the coast, especially south coast. It appears humidity levels will be moderate through at least Tue and possibly Wed with dewpoints mostly in the low-mid 60s which would keep heat indices a bit below dangerous thresholds. The lower dewpoints will also allow overnight low temps to fall into the 60s through mid week. The probability of dewpoints approaching 70 increases Wed and especially Thu as higher PWATs develop. Dry weather expected through at least Tue with subsidence and limited instability in place. While moisture and instability increases later Wed-Thu, synoptic forcing remains weak. Risk for diurnal showers/t-storms will increase somewhat Wed and especially Thu as instability increases. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update: Today through Saturday...High confidence. VFR. Patchy fog possible overnight in low lying areas. SE wind 5-10 kt today and Sat, light to calm wind tonight. KBOS terminal...High confidence in TAF. Sea-breeze developing 14-15z. KBDL terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Saturday...High confidence. Tranquil boating conditions expected to continue through Sat with E- SE winds 15 kt or less. Seas 3 ft or less all waters. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1240732 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:54 AM 08.Aug.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 239 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 239 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 - Increasing moisture and an unsettled weather pattern will lead to high rain chances into the weekend (~60-90%), with locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding concerns each day. - Rain chances will begin to decrease into the early to middle portion of next week, but temperatures will rise back to above normal values. - A High Risk of numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents exists at area beaches through tonight, and possibly may linger into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 Current-Tonight...The weak pressure gradient remains in place with L/V to calm winds. Warm and humid conditions continue early this morning with widely scattered showers and perhaps an isolated lightning storm in the deep but light onshore flow. Deep moisture and various boundary collisions will also aid in some convective activity into the interior early in the period. Disturbed weather across the Bahamas and FL Straits will pass slowly westward during the day helping to promote above average (60-80pct) shower/storm chances. Subtle impulses aloft will also aid with convection. PWATs will remain in excess of 2 inches areawide thru the period. Radar trends and local CAMs show convection increasing into the early morning hours over the local coastal waters, along the coast, and across the I-4 corridor. Main impacts will be locally heavy downpours, brief gusty winds, and lightning strikes. An onshore wind component will allow for a diffuse sea breeze boundary to push well inland later today. Greatest rain chances will exist across coastal counties this morning and early afternoon, focusing into the interior this afternoon and early evening, with activity piling up across the western peninsula late today. While steering flow appears to be light and out of the SE/E, there may be some occasional erratic, slow movement with cells. Entirely possible some locations locally could realize 1-3 inch rainfall amounts (perhaps higher), esp due to the slow- moving nature and any spots that receive multiple rounds. While there could be a lull in much of the activity this evening, models, again, suggest re-development late evening and overnight across the local coastal waters, with some of this activity breaching coastal counties and perhaps further inland. Locally heavy downpours possible with minor/nuisance flooding in play. Max temps today in the U80s to around 90F near the coast and generally near 90F to L90s into the interior. Peak heat indices will run 98-105F, though clouds/rainfall will keep these tempered. Conditions humid tonight with persistent lows in the 70s. Sat-Mon...The weak quasi-stationary frontal boundary will remain strewn across north-central FL allowing for deep moisture to pool across the FL peninsula through the weekend and into Mon. While the pgrad remains generally weak, light onshore flow will dominate thru the period. Aloft, a general weak troughy pattern exists with 500 mb temps remaining consistent near -6C. Occasional, weak, subtle mid- level impulses will aid convection. Have capped PoPs at 80-90pct on Sat and 70-80pct Sun/Mon. With the continued onshore flow a diffuse ECSB will develop and traverse the peninsula each day as steering flow, too, remains light and out of the SE or S. Will have to monitor any onshore-moving activity, esp morning/overnight across coastal locales as the heavy rain potential remains real. The primary concern will be the threat for locally heavy rainfall of 2-4 inches each day from slow-moving or repeated rounds of heavier showers and storms. This will cause mostly minor flooding issues, but may lead to isolated instances of more substantial flooding of roadways and poor drainage areas across any locations that see heavy rainfall over repeated days. Still could see a few strong storms with threats of frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds. Increased shower/storm potential and cloud-cover should keep highs in check (U80s to L90s), though rather muggy conditions will exist with very deep moisture in place. Peak afternoon heat indices will still average 98-105F each afternoon ahead of showers/storms. Overnight lows generally consistent and in the 70s. Tue-Thu...A general weak pressure pattern continues across the region with light, mostly onshore flow continuing as deeper moisture focuses further W/NW of ECFL on Tue, though models are quick to usher it back in on Wed/Thu. Aloft, mid-level ridging across the western Atlc retrogrades across the FL peninsula Tue/early Wed, then emerges into the NE Gulf late Wed/Thu. Mid-level temps remain consistent with previous days, though forcing may be lacking. Continue to keep 50-60pct PoPs each day. Coastal counties may still have the greatest rainfall chances during the morning/early afternoon with interior locations realizing highest chances through the afternoon/early evening. Storm steering flow remains light and erratic during this period. Heavy rainfall potential remains one of the biggest convective threats along with lightning strikes and locally gusty winds. With a little less cloud-cover in the forecast, max temps may spike into the L-M90s, once again each afternoon. Forecast peak heat indices generally 102-107F, though could have some isolated higher values which we will have to monitor. Still warm/humid at night with persistent lows in the 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 239 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 Thru Tue...A weak frontal boundary will continue to lie quasi- stationary across north-central FL at least thru the weekend. Winds remain forecast to be a mainly predominantly onshore component, generally southeast thru the weekend and a bit more E/ESE into Mon/Tue, with wind speeds remaining below 15 knots outside of convection. Seas forecast to remain around 2-3 ft through Sat, but potentially building to 3-4 ft well offshore Sun/Mon, then back to 2-3 ft by Tue areawide. Seas locally higher invof stronger showers and lightning storms. Above normal coverage of showers and storms is forecast over the waters into the weekend and Mon. Rain chances may trend closer to normal early next week (Tue) as deeper moisture shifts westward, but only briefly. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 141 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Increased moisture over the area will continue scattered showers across portions of east central Florida through tonight into the morning hours. CAMs show the greatest coverage will be along the coast into the morning before coverage shifts across the interior in the afternoon/early evening. Have maintained VCSH along the coast until 19Z, with VCTS across the interior starting 19/20Z before diminishing around 03Z. Timing and coverage of convection remains too low to include TEMPOs at this time. Light and variable winds will become E/ESE and increase to 5-10 KT by mid-morning before becoming light once again with dry conditions Friday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 88 75 88 76 / 50 50 90 60 MCO 91 76 91 75 / 80 40 90 50 MLB 89 77 89 77 / 60 50 80 60 VRB 91 75 90 74 / 60 50 80 60 LEE 89 76 90 76 / 80 40 90 40 SFB 90 76 90 76 / 70 40 90 50 ORL 91 76 91 76 / 80 40 90 50 FPR 90 75 90 74 / 60 50 80 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1240731 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:42 AM 08.Aug.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 235 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure to the north continues to bring cooler northeasterly flow and unsettled weather through the weekend, and perhaps even into early next week. Offshore low pressure will also move northeastward this weekend. The wedge of cooler air should start to break by the middle of next week, starting a warming trend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The August CAD wedge remains in place today with surface high pressure off the Northeast coast and weak low pressure well off to the east. Cloud coverage isn`t expected to be as stubborn today as the past couple of days, but low stratus will linger through late morning before improving midday. Unseasonably cool weather again in store for today, with highs in the mid 80s combining with summertime dewpoints in the 70s. Some mid-level convergence will bring another day of rain chances, mainly across coastal counties with the higher PWATs. Upper shortwave currently approaching the area will exit midday leading to NVA, combining with lack of a decent sea breeze to limit shower coverage to widely scattered. Steering flow again is fairly weak, so any storms that do develop could lead to isolated heavy rain. Low temps tonight around 70F. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Offshore low pressure will be off the NC coast moving further out to sea into Saturday night. Ridging high pressure to our west remains in the area with NE winds and it will become the dominant feature driving the forecast. This means cooler highs just a bit below normal in the low to mid 80s. Rain chances will have a slight skew with drier conditions NE and wetter SW. Headed into Sunday, it looks like ridging builds in behind the low from the SW and an area of vorticity extending from the offshore low gets caught up in the surge from the SW. This could increase coverage of showers/storms Sunday particularly in the afternoon, again more for our SW areas, if accompanied by enough moisture to combat the wedging high. Saturday rainfall doesn`t appear to be too much of a threat due to that drier air but winds aloft will be very light so storms might not have much movement to them. Sunday should see a bit more rainfall possible across the board if the SW surge brings some deeper moisture with it. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Lingering forcing aloft around the high to our north and continued pushing of moisture in from the SW could lead to higher rainfall activity Monday. Tuesday onwards could see a decrease in rainfall coverage as the high moves offshore ahead of low pressure well to our north with only weak high pressure over the mountains. The pattern starts to become more summerlike with scattered convection possible day to day in the afternoon/evening with the sea breeze and Piedmont trough, temperatures warming to near or even above normal by mid week. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Widespread MVFR ceilings across the area, with a corridor of IFR cigs across central SC (impacting southwestern terminals in our CWA). Cloud level flow is more easterly compared to last nights northeasterly winds, and therefore expect ceilings to remain around 1500ft for most of the local terminals versus LIFR/IFR. Best chance for a few hours of IFR will be at KFLO during pre-dawn hours. Conditions will improve late this morning/midday as clouds start to break up and ceilings lift. With high pressure wedge still in place, expect a return of low ceilings tonight towards end of TAF period. Winds remain relatively light out of the NNE. Chance of showers and isolated thunder this afternoon, mainly at coastal terminals. Extended Outlook...Restrictions to flight categories may continue into the weekend due to either spotty afternoon convection or continued influence from the wedge bringing low ceilings. More of the same is possible into early next week, though the wedge may start to break by Tuesday. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...High pressure wedge remains in place inland, maintaining northeast winds across the local coastal waters through tonight, with sustained speeds of 10-15 kts and gusts around 20kt, particularly through midday today. Seas 2-3 ft due to ENE swell. Saturday through Tuesday...Low pressure well off the NC coast will continue out to sea into Sunday. NE winds ~10-15 kts will become more easterly and onshore AOB 10 kts into early next week as high pressure starts to builds back in. Seas 2-3 ft to start the period relaxing to generally 2 ft early next week. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1240729 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:42 AM 08.Aug.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 224 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 A weak stationary frontal boundary remains stretched east to west across northern Florida and the northern gulf coast waters. This boundary sits between high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states and high pressure in the western gulf. A little farther to the northeast, models continue to develop a weak area of low pressure off the Carolina coastline. This area of low pressure has only a 20 percent chance of tropical development over the next 7 days as it slowly lifts to the north-northeast. Regardless of tropical development and track, the Florida peninsula will remain on the south and moist side of the stationary boundary and will see an increase in moisture today and continuing into the weekend with PWAT values between 2.0 - 2.4 inches. This wet pattern will support scattered to widespread showers and storms each day through the weekend. Some localized flooding will be possible in the stronger storms. By Monday morning, some slightly drier air with PWAT values between 1.9 - 2.2 inches settles into the area as high pressure off the mid- Atlantic states ridges southwest across Florida and into the gulf. This will bring back easterly flow and will likely translate to slightly lower, more typical summertime rain and storm chances for the first half of next week. Near seasonal temperatures expected today and through the weekend with daytime highs topping out in the upper 80`s to low 90`s. With high humidity, heat indices will still reach 100-104 degrees each afternoon. Overnight lows will remain in the mid 70`s to low 80`s. A slight warm up expected next week with daytime highs creeping back up into the mid 90`s and heat indices approaching 100-107 degrees. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 222 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 VFR conditions and light winds less than 10 knots will prevail outside of thunderstorms at all terminals through the period. Model guidance has showers and storms firing up over the east coast sea breeze and interior and traversing westward after 18Z, so will hold VCTS at all terminals between 18-01Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 222 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 Light winds around 10 knots or less and minimal seas expected over the eastern gulf waters into the weekend. The only hazard expected will be gusty winds in the vicinity of scattered showers and storms each day. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 222 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 Abundant moisture will keep RH values above critical levels through the period. Scattered summertime showers and storms expected each day. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will remain light at 10 mph or less, precluding any fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 78 91 78 / 80 70 80 70 FMY 92 76 91 76 / 80 60 80 60 GIF 92 74 92 74 / 80 50 80 40 SRQ 92 75 92 76 / 80 70 80 70 BKV 91 73 91 74 / 80 60 80 60 SPG 89 77 89 78 / 80 70 80 70 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1240728 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 AM 08.Aug.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 232 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 230 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 A wet and unsettled pattern persists as we close out the work week and kick off the weekend. Surface high pressure remains well north of the region centered around New England and the Canadian Maritimes while the northern extent of a tropical wave and a stalled boundary near north Florida provide some enhancement to accompany diurnal heating and the sea breezes that develop each afternoon and evening. Precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches and the moist profile in recent soundings shows that the atmosphere is enriched with tropical moisture that will be capable of supporting bursts of excessive rainfall with thunderstorms that develop. The Atlantic sea breeze should be able to advance inland a bit further than the Gulf sea breeze but another busy couple of days with late morning to early evening showers and thunderstorms appears to be in the cards. Besides the heavy to excessive rainfall, frequent lightning and strong wind gusts are other hazards with these storms. Some localized shear and the generally light wind flow could also lead to waterspouts or funnel clouds. One by-product of the additional moisture is that convective cloud coverage is present earlier in the day and with greater coverage to help prevent heat index values from climbing as high for a good portion of the morning and early afternoon compared to several days ago. This should help preclude the need for a Heat Advisory today as most areas should remain below 105-108 degrees today except for some isolated spots which should touch that level briefly. Will allow the next shift to monitor the morning warmup and issue a short-fused Heat Advisory if needed but the current signals in the guidance and observed trends point to staying below the advisory criteria thresholds today and possibly again on Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 230 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 The warm and wet summer pattern continues as we close out the weekend and kick off the new work week. A mid-level trough over the eastern United States is eventually replaced with an approaching long-wave trough that moves across the central United States on Monday before deamplifying a bit as it enters the eastern third of the country by mid-week. At the surface, the Atlantic high remains a bit north of a more customary Bermuda high`s center which allows the region to remain on the periphery in the path of several tropical waves and their associated moisture. Rain chances may drop closer to climatological norms for this time of year but activity remains in the forecast daily. Temperatures and heat index values could also climb in the long term allowing for a greater risk for heat illness. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 158 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 Generally VFR with shower and storms expected to develop along the coast this morning and transition inland through the day with a peak in the afternoon and evening. Bouts of sub-VFR are possible at terminals impacted by convection but predictability is too low to include restrictions at this time. Short-fused AMDs likely to TEMPO in MVFR or IFR with TSRA. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 Light to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds continue into the weekend. Gulf breezes will bring a shift to west-southwesterly winds over the west coast each afternoon. Seas should remain around 1-2 ft, except around thunderstorms, which could produce brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. && .BEACHES... Issued at 230 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 A light easterly to southeasterly wind flow will allow a moderate rip current risk to persist along the Palm Beaches today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 90 80 89 81 / 80 70 80 50 West Kendall 89 77 89 77 / 80 60 80 50 Opa-Locka 91 79 91 79 / 80 60 80 40 Homestead 89 78 89 79 / 80 70 80 50 Fort Lauderdale 89 80 89 80 / 80 60 80 50 N Ft Lauderdale 90 80 90 81 / 80 60 80 50 Pembroke Pines 92 80 92 81 / 80 60 80 40 West Palm Beach 91 79 91 79 / 80 60 80 40 Boca Raton 92 77 91 79 / 80 70 80 50 Naples 91 77 91 77 / 80 70 90 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1240727 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:09 AM 08.Aug.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 159 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 Higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing this afternoon across south Florida. These have been producing lightning, rainfall accumulations of 2-3 inches, and gusty winds of 20-30 mph. Weak pressure will remain over the area through tonight and the east-northeast wind flow and high moisture will combine to keep the development of storms through early evening. Thanks to the storms, temperatures have dropped this afternoon to the 80s and in some locations to the high 70s. As the evening progresses, storms should start to weaken or move towards the gulf waters. By Friday morning, the wind flow will have more of a east-southeast flow and Atlantic showers will start to reach the coastal communities by mid-morning and increase in coverage as the day progresses. No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 311 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 Overall synoptic regime won`t change much today, at least from the latest model consensus perspective. The lingering/decaying frontal boundary over the Florida panhandle area will drift a little southward, a little closer to central Florida by late this morning. Meanwhile, weak U/L ridging over central Florida continues to gradually erode as an area of disturbed weather over the Bahamas/west Atlantic becomes better organized. The ridge axis migrates further west into the central Gulf region, but still keeping the area under weak pressure gradients and weak L/L flow. Periods of light and variable winds are still expected today, which will again allow for sea breezes to dominate convection development. 00Z MFL weather balloon sounding data and model soundings depict increasing deep moisture advection with PWATs over 2 inches through the next several days. This will help in pushing highest POPs/Wx coverage into the 90 percent range by Friday afternoon, with numerous showers and thunderstorms expected each day. The weak easterly flow should allow for the Atlantic sea breeze to dominate and push the highest POPs into the western half of SoFlo late in the afternoon. However, mid-late morning showers/storms are also possible around the Atlantic coast, then pushing inland with the sea breeze. DCAPE values remain around 750 J/kg, but the lifting provided by the sea breeze boundaries, along with outflow boundary collisions from convection, could provide enough support for a few strong to severe cells. Main hazards will be frequent lightning strikes, damaging wind gusts, and increased potential for large hail. Also, potential for localized flooding will increase as the weak synoptic flow may allow for slow-moving downpours and training of cells. The increased weather activity and cloud cover should keep afternoon high temps a little bit cooler in the low 90s each day. This may not be much, but probably enough to preclude heat advisory conditions. Nighttime lows will remain in the mid-upper 70s inland, and in the low 80s closer to the coasts. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 311 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 Models continue to keep a weather pattern dominated by the diurnal heating cycle, with sea breezes becoming the main source for L/L instability, lifting and deep convection. Ensembles and long range globals are trending towards keeping the frontal boundary over northern Florida lingering for a little longer, at least through the end of the weekend or early next week. Meanwhile, two areas of low pressure will also linger at either side of the Florida peninsula. The moisture field associated with these features will continue to drive shower and thunderstorm activity over SoFlo through early next week. The bulk of convective activity is still expected during the afternoon hours and into the early evening hours each day. POPs/Wx coverage will remain in the 60-80 percent range, higher over west SoFlo. Model PWATs of 2 inches or higher will support localized heavy showers, especially with slow-moving thunderstorms. Therefore, the unsettled weather pattern will prevail through much of the long term. Main hazards will again be frequent lightning strikes, damaging wind gusts, and increased potential for large hail. By Tuesday, the boundary finally breaks down and high pressure expands across the SE CONUS. This will finally begin modifying the regional air mass and allow for a downward trend in POPs. But at least scattered showers and thunderstorms should still develop Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures remain in the low 90s near the coasts, and mid- upper 90s for inland and western areas. Nighttime lows should remain in the mid 70s inland to around 80 near the coasts. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 158 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 Generally VFR with shower and storms expected to develop along the coast this morning and transition inland through the day with a peak in the afternoon and evening. Bouts of sub-VFR are possible at terminals impacted by convection but predictability is too low to include restrictions at this time. Short-fused AMDs likely to TEMPO in MVFR or IFR with TSRA. && .MARINE... Issued at 311 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 Light to moderate east-northeast winds continue today, shifting more easterly during the weekend. Gulf breezes will bring a shift to west-southwesterly winds over the west coast each afternoon. Seas should remain around 1-2 ft, except around thunderstorms, which could produce brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. && .BEACHES... Issued at 311 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 Rip current risk will remain moderate across the West Palm Beach coastal waters for the next few days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 90 80 89 81 / 80 70 80 50 West Kendall 89 77 89 77 / 80 60 80 50 Opa-Locka 91 79 91 79 / 80 60 80 40 Homestead 89 78 89 79 / 80 70 80 50 Fort Lauderdale 89 80 89 80 / 80 60 80 50 N Ft Lauderdale 90 80 90 81 / 80 60 80 50 Pembroke Pines 92 80 92 81 / 80 60 80 40 West Palm Beach 91 79 91 79 / 80 60 80 40 Boca Raton 92 77 91 79 / 80 70 80 50 Naples 91 77 91 77 / 80 70 90 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1240726 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:09 AM 08.Aug.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 153 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 - Increasing moisture and unsettled weather pattern will lead to high rain chances late week and weekend (~60-80%), with locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding concerns each day. - Rain chances will begin to decrease into the early to middle portion of next week, but temperatures will rise back to above normal values. - A High Risk of rip currents exists at area beaches through tonight. && .UPDATE... Issued at 901 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 Rich tropical moisture (PWs 2"+) and a weak low-level trough continue to spawn a few showers this evening, particularly from near Orlando to Daytona Beach. Overnight, we anticipate renewed development of showers especially along the coast, with 40-50% coverage near I-95 lessening to 10-20% well inland. There is plentiful instability, so at least low lightning probabilities continue. Made some modest adjustments to rain/storm chances on Friday. Plentiful cloud cover may work to offset the very moist environment, but with this disturbance moving overhead, it does look unsettled. Expect 50-60% coverage near the coast (peaking in the morning and early afternoon) before chances ramp up to 60-80% over the interior from mid afternoon through early evening. Depending on our instability, wet microburst gusts from 40-50 mph and localized flooding appear to be the primary storm hazards. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 Currently-Tonight...Scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue to develop inland, west of I-95 through mid to late afternoon, with PoPs up to 60-70%. However, isolated onshore moving showers and storms will still be possible along the coast behind a somewhat diffuse east coast sea breeze. Hi-res guidance then has greatest coverage of this activity focused across west central Florida later in the day and evening where outflow/sea breeze boundary collisions occur. Isolated stronger storms will still be possible, mainly across the interior, producing strong wind gusts, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches. A slow moving trough over the Bahamas will continue to approach the area tonight, with convection increasing across the coastal waters. Southeast steering winds will be able to transport isolated to scattered showers and storms onshore, especially through the overnight hours. Have therefore maintained PoPs up to 30-50% along much of the coast into tonight. Friday-Sunday...Weak frontal boundary will continue to linger across north to north central Florida Friday and into the weekend. This feature combined with a passing inverted trough will maintain deep moisture across the area, with PW values around 2.0-2.3 inches. High rain chances (~70-80%) are therefore forecast across the area each day. Rain chances peak into the afternoon/early evening as scattered to numerous showers and storms develop along a diffuse inland moving east coast sea breeze, with greatest coverage focusing across west central Florida late day. However, a predominant low level E/SE flow will be able to transport scattered showers and storms onshore along the east central Florida coast even during the nighttime and morning hours. One of the primary concerns will be the threat for locally heavy rainfall of 2-4 inches each day from slow moving or repeated rounds of heavier showers and storms. This will cause mostly minor flooding issues, but may lead to isolated instances of more substantial flooding of roadways and poor drainage areas across any locations that see repeated rounds of heavier rainfall over the next few days. The potential for a few stronger storms will continue each day, capable of producing strong gusty winds and frequent lightning strikes. Increased rain chances and cloud cover will keep highs closer to normal, in the upper 80s to low 90s, but peak heat index values will still reach around 100-105 degrees ahead of showers and storms. Warm and muggy conditions will continue overnight, with lows in the mid to upper 70s. Monday-Wednesday...Deeper moisture shifts west of the area into early next week as a ridge builds in aloft through Wednesday. Onshore flow prevails as surface ridge axis remains north of the area. This will all contribute to lowering rain chances during this period, with PoPs falling to 50-70% Monday and 50-60% Tuesday through Wednesday. The onshore winds will focus highest shower/storm chances inland and toward the western side of the Florida peninsula each afternoon and evening. However, isolated to scattered onshore moving showers and storms will continue to be possible along the coast overnight and into the morning hours. As rain chances decrease, temperatures will climb, with highs rising back to the low to mid 90s across the area. Peak heat index values will also increase to around 102-107 degrees for most areas, but some spots may reach a little higher toward midweek. && .MARINE... Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 Tonight-Tuesday...A stalled frontal boundary and passing weak trough will lead to increasing moisture and above normal shower and storm development across the coastal waters late week and into the weekend. Main storm threats will be cloud to water lightning strikes and gusty winds of 30-35 knots. Deeper moisture will then shift westward with overall coverage of showers and storms forecast to decrease and be closer to normal into early next week. Winds remain predominately onshore over the next several days out of the east-southeast, with wind speeds remaining below 15 knots outside of convection. Seas forecast to remain around 2-3 feet through Sunday, but potentially build to 3-4 ft offshore early next week. Seas locally higher in vicinity of stronger showers and lightning storms. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 141 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Increased moisture over the area will continue scattered showers across portions of east central Florida through tonight into the morning hours. CAMs show the greatest coverage will be along the coast into the morning before coverage shifts across the interior in the afternoon/early evening. Have maintained VCSH along the coast until 19Z, with VCTS across the interior starting 19/20Z before diminishing around 03Z. Timing and coverage of convection remains too low to include TEMPOs at this time. Light and variable winds will become E/ESE and increase to 5-10 KT by mid-morning before becoming light once again with dry conditions Friday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 88 75 88 76 / 50 50 90 60 MCO 91 76 91 75 / 80 40 90 50 MLB 89 77 89 77 / 60 50 80 60 VRB 91 75 90 74 / 60 50 80 60 LEE 89 76 90 76 / 80 40 90 40 SFB 90 76 90 76 / 70 40 90 50 ORL 91 76 91 76 / 80 40 90 50 FPR 90 75 90 74 / 60 50 80 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1240725 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 AM 08.Aug.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 139 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will remain centered across New England overnight, slowly drifting off the coast on Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure off the southeast coast will slowly drift northeast into Saturday and farther offshore from Sunday into next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 940 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Scattered shower coverage will be favored over the SE third of the area overnight. Clouds will increase again overnight, gradually diminishing across the north into later Friday morning. 1030mb high pressure remains over Atlantic Canada and coastal New England this evening, ridging SW along and to the east of the higher terrain of the Appalachians. An inverted coastal trough off the SC coast has become more defined this evening with the resulting gradient maintaining NE surface winds across the area. Widespread stratus has finally broken up over most of the region but continues to hang on for Hampton Roads and areas near and south of the VA/NC border, where some isolated to widely scattered showers persist. Diminished VSBY in haze continues over the northern half of the area, but should gradually diminish overnight. The high to the north will continue to build off coastal New England overnight, with continued onshore flow and weak overrunning moisture will allow for additional spotty precip to develop across the SE third of the area. PW values remain near 2" for NE NC, tapering to 1.5" for Fluvanna/Louisa ENE to the MD Eastern Shore. Some clearing along the VA peninsulas and the Eastern Shore this evening will give way to a partly to mostly cloudy sky overnight as stratus fills back in w/greater coverage S-SE. Overnight lows will fall into the mid 60s to low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Showers and storms are possible Friday, trending drier for most of the area Saturday and Sunday with low pressure moving away from the coast. - A gradual warming trend is also expected with highs in the mid 80s by Sunday. The high pressure system will continue to slide farther off the New England coast Friday. The latest 12Z/07 model consensus continues to keep the deepest moisture associated with the coastal low offshore but spreads modest moisture back into the region Friday. The best chance for showers/storms will be across southern and SE VA and NE NC Friday, where PoPs are 30-60%. Will keep PoPs 30% or less elsewhere (where the high should keep mainly dry conditions in place). Highs Friday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The coastal low pulls away from the region on Saturday with chance to slight chance PoPs for S portions of the area. Fewer clouds will result in highs in the low 80s across the region on Saturday. Warm and mainly dry across the region on Sunday with mostly sunny skies and temperatures rising in to the mid to upper 80s. Any showers or storms Sunday will be confined to areas near the Albemarle Sound but currently only have PoPs aob 20% in these areas. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 340 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Trending warmer to near or slightly above normal levels with increasing humidity into next week. High pressure settles overhead early next week and translates offshore mid to late week as an upper ridge builds near FL/AL. Aloft, the flow remains quite weak with a trough over the Midwest starting to impinge on the ridge mid to late week. Highs trend back to seasonal normals Monday (mid 80s to lower 90s) and back to a bit above normal by Tuesday-Thursday. Overnight lows also warm back into the 70s. There is not much support at the sfc or aloft for convection, so PoPs are generally 20% or less, perhaps 25-30% by Thursday as the aforementioned upper trough breaks down the ridge. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 131 AM EDT Friday... A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions prevail across all terminals early this morning. ACross the piedmont skies remain mostly clear with some SCT low level clouds. However, some patch ground fog has moved into place causing some MVFR conditions across RIC. Across the SE terminals strong onshore flow has lead to VFR Vis and MVFR Cigs. Across the north SBY remains VFR as all flight restrictions stay to the south due to the broad coastal low. High pressure remains anchored over Atlantic Canada this morning, then drifts offshore of the New England coast into Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure develops well offshore of the NC Outer Banks. The resultant E-NE flow will persist and allow for MVFR conditions (mainly CIGs) to continue along the coast, and redevelop at KRIC, with an increased chances for showers across SE VA and NE NC Friday afternoon. There is a potential for a brief period of IFR cigs at RIC around 12z Friday, but have held out for now due to short duration and model trends/low forecast confidence. Did add a brief period of IFR via Tempo at KECG around and just after sunrise. Winds remain ENE 8-12kt Friday with gusts up to 20kt along the coast in the late morning and afternoon. Outlook: High pressure builds S into the region this weekend into early next week as low pressure moves offshore. This will bring mainly dry and VFR conditions. && .MARINE... As of 340 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - SCA conditions prevail through the end of the week and into the early portion of the weekend. - Rough surf conditions continue through the end of the week causing the High Rip Risk. 1028mb high pressure remains anchored over Nova Scotia this aftn, with an inverted trough off the Southeast coast. This is resulting in ENE flow across the Mid-Atlantic coast. The wind has relaxed to some extent this aftn and is generally 10-15kt with gusts to ~20kt. Seas range from 5-6ft N to 6-7ft S, with 2-3ft waves in the Ches. Bay and 3-4ft at the mouth of the Bay. High pressure remains anchored over Atlantic Canada tonight into Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop and drift NE well off the Mid- Atlantic coast. This will allow for the pressure gradient to tighten and wind probs increase as well support at least ENE 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt for most of the marine area with the exception of the upper rivers. SCAs have been extended through Friday aftn for the Currituck Sound and lower James, through Friday evening for the lower Bay, Friday night for the mouth of the Bay and ocean N of Cape Charles, and Saturday for the ocean S of Cape Charles. SCAs for the upper rivers have been cancelled. Onshore flow diminishes this weekend as high pressure settles S and low pressure moves NE well away from the coast. Benign marine conditions are expected early next week as high pressure is generally centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Rough nearshore surf and a high risk of rip current will continue Friday and likely Saturday as well. Nearshore waves of 4-6ft are expected Friday with 3-5ft Saturday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 340 PM EDT Thursday... Persistent NE flow will allow for tides to build across the area tonight into Friday. This will allow for stronger flood tides into the Ches. Bay and weaker ebb tides. Nuisance to minor tidal flooding is expected late this afternoon/evening high tide cycle (higher astronomical tide). Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for all coastal counties but Worcester MD. With the persistent NE flow, it is possible that elevated tides will continue through Saturday. In addition, ocean tides will also become elevated, and combined with surf of up to 6 or 7 feet, some localized nuisance to minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast as well. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630- 631-633-638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ632. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658. && $$ |
| #1240723 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 AM 08.Aug.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 148 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 143 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 For today, weak upper level troughing and low-level northeasterly flow will continue. There will be a moisture gradient across the area with deeper moisture across the Florida Big Bend compared to further northwest across southeast Alabama. This moisture gradient will result in the highest rain chances across the southeast Florida Big Bend today with lower chances further northwest. Slow storm motions and heavy rainfall rates may lead to localized areas of flooding in low-lying areas and poor drainage areas. High temperatures will generally range from the mid 80s to near 90 with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 143 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 A tropical wave will slide into the northeast Gulf this weekend while a meandering front will slowly sag south into the Gulf waters before dissipating. Deep moisture will increase across the local area with precipitable water values over 2.1 inches for most locations. These factors are expected to lead to an increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend into early next week. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will accompany stronger convection. Isolated flash flooding concerns are possible given the saturated conditions that are currently in place. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 143 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 Beyond Monday, the subtropical ridge will regain some influence across the area with rain chances declining back to more typical levels for August. In conjunction, highs will jump back into the low to mid 90s with heat index values back into the 100s by the middle of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 143 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 The two main TAF forecasting challenges will be with extent of morning stratus, along with cig heights, and the extent of afternoon thunder. Satellite imagery currently shows the southern extent of a large MVFR stratus deck creeping southwest through east-central Georgia. This will likely affect ABY for several hours late this morning. Other sites will get in situ MVFR stratus developing after sunrise, given the first thermal lift in the moist low-level air mass. In all cases, morning cigs will lift and scatter out around midday. Afternoon thunder will be confined to the moister air mass across Florida and far south Georgia, favoring VLD, TLH, and ECP. Further north in the drier mid-level air, thunder is unlikely at ABY, and not expected at DHN. && .MARINE... Issued at 143 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 A tropical wave will enter the northern Gulf Saturday through Monday with an increase in showers and thunderstorms each day favoring the overnight into morning periods. Beyond Monday, high pressure builds through the southeast US with winds becoming east to southeast and an overall decreasing trend to the rain chances. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 143 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 Low fire weather concerns are expected for the next few days with moist conditions and increasing rain chances heading into the weekend. The wettest locations will likely be across the Florida Big Bend with lower rain chances across southeast Alabama. Dispersions will be on the lower side, but most locations should still remain above 25 into the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 143 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 Heading into the weekend and early next week, scattered to widespread showers and storms are expected with the greatest coverage generally expected over the FL counties. Although widespread flooding is currently not expected, some isolated flash flooding is certainly possible given the saturated conditions in place. In addition, a few rivers and streams remain in or are forecast to reach action stage due to recent rainfall. However, no river points are forecast to reach flood stage at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 89 74 87 73 / 40 20 80 30 Panama City 89 75 88 75 / 40 30 80 50 Dothan 87 72 86 71 / 10 10 60 20 Albany 87 72 86 72 / 20 10 70 20 Valdosta 89 72 88 72 / 50 20 80 30 Cross City 91 72 91 72 / 80 50 90 60 Apalachicola 87 76 86 77 / 60 50 90 70 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1240722 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 AM 08.Aug.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1229 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1228 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025 - Slightly elevated rain chances beginning on Sunday (25-40%). - Minor to moderate heat risk across South Texas. Brief periods of major risk are possible across portions of the Brush Country. - Elevated fire weather conditions throughout the forecast across portions of the Rio Grande Plains. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025 Hot and humid conditions persist across South Texas as the eastern portion of a mid-level ridge sits over the region. These conditions will continue through Friday and Saturday as the aforementioned mid- level ridge stays positioned over the area, keeping rain chances low (<20%). On Sunday, a mid-level low or inverted trough-like feature will move into the region. Slightly deeper moisture (1.75" PWAT) and PVA associated with this feature will warrant an increase in rain chances across the Coastal Plains (25-40%). Rain chances will remain slightly increased through Tuesday as PVA lingers in the area. There will remain a low chance of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms into the middle of next week. Heat indices throughout the area will generally remain between 100- 109 this weekend and through next week. Some areas may briefly reach around 110, but conditions are expected to remain below Heat Advisory levels. Heat impacts will remain minor to moderate throughout the forecast, with some areas around the Rio Grande Plains briefly reaching major risk. Remember to drink plenty of water and stay hydrated. Elevated fire conditions may exist across the Rio Grande Plains throughout the forecast due to minimum RH values forecast to be 25- 30 percent and above normal Energy Release Component (ERC) values. However, winds are expected to remain below criteria. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025 VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight. In the morning hours (10z to 14z), ALI/CRP/VCT will have a brief period of MVFR/IFR VSBYs and CIGS due to morning fog. After the fog lifts around 14z, VFR conditions will return across the region with generally light winds and gusts near 20 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025 A light to gentle (BF 2-3) south to southeasterly flow is expected in the overnight hours, increasing to a gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) breeze during the afternoon and evening hours each day throughout the forecast period. Rain chances remain low Friday and Saturday (<20%), with higher chances expected Sunday (25-40%) and lingering into Monday and Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 97 76 94 76 / 0 0 10 10 Victoria 98 75 96 74 / 10 0 20 10 Laredo 105 78 104 77 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 100 74 98 73 / 0 0 10 10 Rockport 93 80 92 79 / 10 0 10 10 Cotulla 104 77 102 76 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 97 74 96 74 / 0 0 10 10 Navy Corpus 91 80 90 80 / 0 0 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1240721 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 AM 08.Aug.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1225 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025 - Hot and humid conditions are expected through at least early this weekend. Heat indices up to 107F are possible. Practice heat safety! - Chances for showers and storms, mainly along and south of the I-10 corridor will persist through into next week. Rain chances increase going into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025 The forecast isn`t all that exciting with it being summer and all, and it can pretty much be summarized as "hot with daily chances of showers/storms." However, with today being International Cat Day (just hear meow-t), let`s pounce on the opportunity to have a little fun with this purr-sistent and typical summerlike pattern. Got your paw-pcorn ready? Let`s go! :) High temperatures this afternoon will top out in the mid to upper 90s once again with a few spots reaching the 100F mark. As we saw yesterday, isolated to scattered showers and storms will be paw-ssible during the afternoon hours along the seabreeze...so the highest chances for rain will be near and south of I-10. These storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts especially as the storms collapse. Let`s not fur-get that we could see outflow boundaries from earlier storms act as a cat-alyst for additional convection. Heat indices will be mainly in the 104-107F range this afternoon. No need to hiss at that as dew points mixing out into the upper 60s/low 70s during the afternoon should be just enough to keep us out of Heat Advisory territory. Even though it`s typically hot here in the summer, that doesn`t make the heat any less dangerous...so please continue to practice heat safety. We`ve been on the tail-end of an upper level high pressure centered over New Mexico/NW Texas, which has allowed us to have slightly above normal temperatures along with daily rain chances. That will remain the case for today as well, but going into the the weekend an approaching upper level disturbance will help knead out the ridging pattern. This trough-y pattern looks like it will mark its territory and sit over Texas going into early next week (if it fits, it sits). That means rain chances will be on the rise and temperatures will be on an ever so slight downward trend. We aren`t talking about a drastic temperature change here, but I have a good feline that we won`t be able to climb into the triple digits for quite a few days. Heat indices will still manage to claw well into the triple digits though, so it`ll feel hot no matter what the thermostat says. Don`t let the rain chances bite into your plans this weekend...it won`t be a total washout. The region will be littered with scattered showers and storms in the afternoon hours though, so you may want to have an idea of where to take cover from the rain and/or lightning especially for areas along and south of I-10. Remember when thunder roars, go indoors...there`s no kitten around when it comes to lightning safety! We won`t be able to scratch out the rain chances as they remain elevated going into next week. With Southeast Texas likely being between upper level high pressure to our west and to our east, we`ll continue to play cat and mouse on who gets rain and who doesn`t everyday. As a result, temperatures into midweek will mainly top out in the low to mid 90s, which is much less ap-paw-ling. Before that though, we have to get through another very hot and humid day with a few ~100F obs on the table once again. So let`s paws for a moment and review heat safety tips: know the signs of heat related illnesses, stay hydrated (with water), take frequent breaks from the heat, and ALWAYS LOOK before you LOCK your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for their paws. Batiste && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025 Outflow dominated storms are mostly just west of the metro Interstate terminals. The strongest cluster west of Hobby should track near, or just south, of SGR in the next hour or so and have included a short duration tempo for gusty winds and lower vsby in heavy downpours. Otherwise, this activity should dwindle down in as we lose heating and the majority of the region should see VFR conditions and light winds for the remainder of the night. Fcst remains one of persistence as we`ll probably see a repeat of iso- sct activity again later in the afternoon Friday from the metro area southward. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025 Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low seas will persist into next week. Daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms continue with activity initiating over the Gulf waters during the morning hours, then moving inland in the late morning/afternoon hours. Winds and seas could be locally higher in and around any of the stronger storms. Rain chances increase going into the weekend and remain elevated into early next week as an upper level disturbance approaches. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 98 76 97 74 / 0 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 99 79 97 79 / 20 10 40 10 Galveston (GLS) 91 83 90 82 / 20 10 40 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1240720 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:39 AM 08.Aug.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1221 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025 ...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1219 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025 Now through Thursday... An upper level trough meanders a bit west over the Southeast into Sunday before an upper ridge off the East Coast builds west over the region into the coming week, shifting the upper trough to over the Southern Plains. A band of higher moisture levels (precipitable h20 levels > 2") along and south of the coast remains there into the weekend before shifting inland as Atlantic moisture moves inland over the Southeast. This influx is due to flow on the south side of a surface ridge stretching southwest along the East Coast becoming more organized. Best PoPs remain along and south of the coast into the weekend, then move more inland mainly over eastern portions of the forecast area over the weekend as moisture levels increase. In the coming week, best PoPs remain over the southern half of the forecast area in the coming week. This convection is expected to continue to follow our typical summer pattern; showers and thunderstorms forming along and south of the coast overnight into the morning hours, then shifting onshore late morning through the afternoon. Onshore convection may some rowdy storms, with MLCapes rising to around 1500-2000J/kg. Add in drier air in the mid levels, especially as one moves inland from the coast, and a few rowdy storms are possible each afternoon/evening. Also, local ponding in poor drainage areas remains possible. High temperatures remain around seasonal norms through most of the forecast. Around 90 to low 90s Friday drop into the upper 80s to around 90 expected most days, with around 90 to the low 90s expected Wednesday and Thursday. Heat Indices in the 95-100 degree range expected most days, with 98-103 expected Wednesday and Thursday. Low temperatures see a bit of a rise through the forecast, starting out around 70 well north of I-10, mid to upper 70s south to the coast Friday night. For Wednesday and Thursday nights, low 70s north of Highway 84, mid to upper 70s are expected south. Weak onshore flow and swell on area beaches will help to keep the risk of Rip Currents Low through the weekend into the coming week. /16 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025 General VFR conditions expected overnight, with showers and thunderstorms forming along and south of the coast towards sunrise. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday, mainly during the afternoon hours, with local drops in conditions to low end MVFR/IFR possible in the stronger storms. /16 && .MARINE... Issued at 1219 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025 Light and variable winds are expected the rest of the week before becoming a more organized easterly this weekend into the coming week. No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 73 90 73 89 74 89 74 89 / 20 60 40 70 40 80 40 70 Pensacola 75 89 76 89 76 88 76 89 / 30 70 50 80 50 80 40 70 Destin 76 88 76 89 77 88 77 89 / 30 70 50 80 60 80 50 70 Evergreen 71 90 72 90 72 89 72 91 / 0 40 20 60 30 70 30 60 Waynesboro 71 90 72 90 72 90 72 90 / 0 30 20 50 30 60 20 60 Camden 71 90 72 90 72 90 72 90 / 0 30 20 50 20 60 20 50 Crestview 71 88 72 89 73 87 73 88 / 20 70 30 80 40 80 40 70 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1240718 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:24 AM 08.Aug.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1213 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1008 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025 The overall pattern into this weekend features Deep South Texas sandwiched between two high pressures - one over the desert Southwest and one over the Gulf. This will maintain mostly dry, hot conditions through midweek. Each afternoon, there is a chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze primarily along and east of I-69C. The heat persists; near-normal temperatures combined with humidity will maintain elevated heat index values through the end of the week. This afternoon along I-69E in Kenedy and Willacy counties, apparent temperatures peaking at or above 110 are possible. Coverage (spatially and temporally) likely are not enough to warrant a Heat Advisory, but a Special Weather Statement is not out of the cards today. Primarily, a Moderate Risk (level 2 of 4) of heat-related impacts across the region will continue through next week. This weekend, dry air wrapping around the western high pressure will allow for a slight relief in apparent temperatures. While still in the triple digits, afternoon peak apparent temps are expected to remain below Heat Advisory criteria across the region. By the end of the weekend, precipitation chances increase in value (still low...around 30%) and coverage following a bit of a pattern shift into early next week as disturbances in the mid levels to provide forcing for wetter conditions. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period at all TAF sites. Southeasterly winds are expected to continue as well allowing for some low-level clouds to move through the region. Winds are expected to become gusty again around late morning through the early evening hours with winds gusting up to 20 knots possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 1008 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025 High pressure over the Gulf maintains favorable marine conditions through next week. Light south to southeasterly winds (increasing to moderate in the afternoons) and slight seas will prevail. There is a persistent chance of isolated showers over the Gulf waters each morning and afternoon through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 97 79 96 79 / 10 0 20 10 HARLINGEN 99 75 97 74 / 20 0 20 10 MCALLEN 103 79 101 79 / 10 0 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 103 77 102 77 / 0 0 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 80 88 80 / 10 0 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 94 77 93 77 / 10 0 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1240716 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:12 AM 08.Aug.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1255 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 1253 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf High pressure ridge will remain in place to the north of the region across the Carolinas, while a weakening frontal boundary will remain in place across NE FL. This will continue above normal rainfall chances and slightly below normal temps across coastal SE GA and all of NE FL today with scattered to numerous showers and storms along the coastal areas this morning, transitioning inland with daytime heating through the afternoon hours. Main threats will continue to be heavy rainfall from the storm activity due to the slow storm motion. Max temps will generally be in the upper 80s along coastal Atlantic areas and around 90F across inland areas of NE FL/SE GA. Convection will fade after sunset tonight over inland areas, while the onshore flow will continue slight chances of showers and storms along the Atlantic Coastal areas through the overnight hours. Low temps will generally be in the lower 70s inland and mid/upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast tonight. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 1253 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 Saturday and Sunday, high pressure will remain wedged to the north from the Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas with coastal troughing to the east moving onshore early in the day with a wave of coastal showers pushing onshore. The coastal trough will phase with the frontal boundary and lift northward into SE GA Saturday with expanding showers and T`storms inland. Sunday, the frontal boundary will remain across SE GA with a stronger Atlantic seabreeze moving well inland with increasing showers and T`storms due to seabreeze interactions inland, lift along the front and above normal moisture levels (PWATS 2.00-2.25 inches). Onshore winds will turn more easterly 10-15 mph near the coast with gusts to 20 mph and 5-10 mph inland. Mostly clouds skies will persist during much of the afternoon hours and limit high temperatures to the mid/upper 80s from the coast into SE GA and much of NE FL and around 90 over north central FL. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 1253 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 Wet pattern continues early next week as diffuse frontal boundary stays over the area with 80-90 percent pops. High pressure will gradually weaken to the NE into midweek with Bermuda high pressure ridging extending westward into the area from the Atlantic. Winds from the east early in the week and southeasterly late in the week will support a stronger Atlantic seabreeze pushing inland each afternoon and focusing a few strong T`storms closer to I-75. Aloft, The ridging will build aloft in the mid and upper levels and high temperatures will increase from near normal to above normal with highs Wednesday to Friday in the mid 90s inland and the low 90s at the coast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 The onshore flow will continue to produce numerous showers at storms along the NE FL Coastal areas this morning with TEMPO groups required at SGJ through at least 15Z, while a slow progression of adding at least PROB30 groups at the rest of the NE FL TAF sites through the day in the onshore flow, as well as a progression northward into coastal SE GA with PROB30 groups required at SSI by the afternoon hours as well. These potential MVFR CIGS/VSBYS in shower/storm activity will continue through sunset (00z) before fading to mainly VFR conds through the overnight hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1253 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 A nearly stationary frontal boundary will be over the area Today. An area of low pressure may develop along this boundary off the southeastern US coast. This low would move then northeast of the region over the weekend, as troughing extends southwest over area waters. High pressure will build to the northeast early next week. The onshore flow through the weekend will generally remain in the 10-15 knot range and marine headlines are not expected. Rip Currents: Moderate Risk will continue through the weekend with onshore flow and surf/breakers 2-3 ft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 89 71 86 71 / 60 30 80 40 SSI 85 77 86 77 / 80 70 90 70 JAX 89 74 88 74 / 70 60 90 60 SGJ 88 75 87 76 / 80 60 90 60 GNV 90 73 89 73 / 90 40 90 40 OCF 90 73 89 74 / 90 60 100 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1240715 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:09 AM 08.Aug.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 100 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring warm days and comfortably cool nights through Saturday. Warming trend begins this weekend with 90 degree heat possible Sunday followed by more widespread 90s next week with moderate humidity levels. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be next Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... High pressure remains anchored over the region, bringing continued dry and pleasant conditions. Any diurnal showers that formed across the high terrain this afternoon should dissipate shortly after sunset. Should see good radiational cooling conditions for the first half of the night with light winds and clear skies, but high clouds move in later in the night. Dewpoints across the region this afternoon are currently in the low 50s to even upper 40s, which will allow overnight temps to dip into the low 50s outside urban areas and away from the coasts. There could be isolated pockets of radiation fog again tomorrow morning, quickly burning off with sunrise. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... Friday: Another gorgeous day is on tap for southern New England as high pressure remains parked overhead. High temperatures once again top out in the upper 70s to low 80s with low humidity. The majority of the high terrain diurnal shower/storm activity will stay confined to northern New England, where better instability resides. Friday night: Skies remain clear overnight, leading to another good night of radiational cooling. Overnight lows will drop in the low 50s, or even the upper 40s, in low-lying areas. Pockets of ground fog are possible again in low-lying areas. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Messages: * Dry and seasonable Saturday. Comfortable dewpoints * Building heat for much of next week with widespread 90s and moderate humidity levels. Increasing chances for heat headlines.` * Chance for showers Wednesday and Thursday High confidence in a seasonable albeit warmer day Saturday. Temps should warm into the 80s for just about everyone as a southwesterly return flow establishes itself behind departing surface high pressure. Slightly cooler temperatures for the Cape and Islands where a southeasterly low level flow will persist through peak heating. One more comfortable night Saturday night with mostly clear skies and dewpoints generally in the 50s and low 60s closer to the coast. Ensembles show anomalously high heights building over the Northeast CONUS starting on Sunday. Closer to the surface, 850mb temps soar to between 15 and 20C Sunday afternoon. This will translate to highs reaching the 90-degree mark across portions of the interior. The core of the heat arrives starting Monday lasting through at least Thurs. The NBM is showing unusually high (80-90%) probabilities of high temperatures at or above 90 degrees through a good portion of the workweek. The highest probs are along the various river valleys especially the Connecticut and Merrimack. This looks to be a somewhat long duration event with guidance showing persistent and anomalously strong ridging across the Eastern CONUS through at least Thursday. Expecting mainly dry conditions through the next week despite rising dewpoints as forcing will be minimal. GEFS and EPS guidance continue to paint a dry picture with probs of 0.10" QPF only rising to between 30 and 50 percent! Best chance of meaningful convection and rainfall arrives Thursday as the upper air pattern becomes more zonal. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update: Today through Saturday...High confidence. VFR. Patchy fog possible overnight in low lying areas. SE wind 5-10 kt today and Sat, light to calm wind tonight. KBOS terminal...High confidence in TAF. Sea-breeze developing 14-15z. KBDL terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Friday...High confidence. Tranquil boating conditions expected to continue Fri with E-SE winds mostly 10 kt or less. Seas 3 ft or less all waters. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Friday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1240714 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:03 AM 08.Aug.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1146 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025 Not really a ton of change in thinking for the forecast as we head into the end of the work week. Friday and Saturday look to see the least amount of storm coverage of the week, with the NBM barely pulling in 10-15% PoPs for areas north of I-12. Some of the CAMs still hit on isolated storms firing in these areas so brought PoPs up just a touch. Outside of storm chances, temperatures look to be about the same peaking in the afternoon in the low 90s for the entire area. Saturday can expect much of the same as Friday with slightly lower convective coverage compared to previous days. Given it is summer in SE Louisiana, don`t be surprised to see a strong storm or two with locally gusty winds and heavy downpours that could lead to minor flooding. Heat indices will peak right around the 100 mark, with cloud cover helping us stay below any heat headline criteria. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Thursday night) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025 Heading into next week we see some troughing in the upper levels move over the Gulf, bringing an increase in convective coverage. This shows in the PoP forecast, up in the 60-80% range for a good chunk of the area on Sunday. This trend of higher PoPs looks to continue throughout the entirety of the long term period as we remain in onshore flow and don`t see a ton of change in the overall upper level pattern. Each day a couple isolated storms will have a chance to bring locally gusty winds and heavy downpours. Depending on the environment each day, would not shock me at all to see a couple storms each severe criteria given we have seen that over the last couple days. In terms of temperatures, each day looks to see afternoon highs in the low 90s with a couple spots possibly touching the mid 90s. With the increased convective coverage no concerns about heat headlines as heat indices look to peak in the 101-103 range each day. Cloud cover looks to be close to 50% each day as well which will bring additional help in keeping us keep closer to climate norms. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025 Prevailing VFR at all terminals and this will likely hold through the night and much of the morning hours Friday. Kept PROB30s in for most terminals tomorrow. but kept them out of BTR and MCB as convective coverage looks to be mainly souther of I-12. For terminals that do see thunderstorms, this is most likely after 18z and could briefly bring gusty winds, lower vis, and lower ceilings. && .MARINE... Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025 Winds and waves will remain calm for the most part through the forecast period, with winds staying below 15kts each day. The only marine concerns through the forecast period are related to convection. Winds and waves will be locally higher around any thunderstorms that fire. Any storms that become rooted to boundaries will have better chances of causing waterspouts. Convective coverage looks best heading into next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 91 71 92 72 / 20 0 20 10 BTR 93 73 92 74 / 40 10 20 10 ASD 91 71 90 72 / 40 20 30 10 MSY 92 76 92 78 / 50 20 40 10 GPT 92 74 90 74 / 50 20 20 20 PQL 90 72 90 72 / 50 30 20 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
