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| #1280162 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1033 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Saltwater flooding of low elevation streets and lots is likely through next week due to a potent King Tide. Don`t drive through flooded roadways. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges. - A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Lower to Middle Keys, and a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the Upper Keys. Coastal Flood Advisories will likely be required for all of the Keys by Monday night. - Increasing northeasterly swell from a Nor`easter off the East Coast will produce 4 to 5 foot seas through the weekend in the eastern Straits of Florida off the Upper Keys. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1032 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 A very dry weather pattern will usher in the last Saturday of September across the Florida Keys. KBYX radar returns show disorganized shower coverage over the Florida Straits and an occasional shower over the Outer Gulf waters. GOES East observations indicate the cloud cover is very sparse across the Keys waters. The 12Z KKEY sounding helps illustrate why quiet weather set up across the area. A very dry air mass moved over the Keys over the past few days, and the sampled PWAT was near the 10th percentile value for the day. Near the surface, breezes are gentle to moderate north to northeasterlies. Dew points along the island chain are still in the lower to mid 70s. For those in the Florida Keys, expect weather to stay muggy this afternoon. This weekend, the main concern will be coastal flooding and maritime swell. A strong nor`easter is generating strong waves along the east coast which is adding to the already present King Tides. While the swell will start to ebb late tonight, the coastal flooding will persist throughout the weekend. Keep an eye on areas of the Keys prone to coastal flooding and take precautions where necessary! && .MARINE... Issued at 1032 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Shallow isolated showers will wax and wane over the waters of the Florida Keys. Marine observations are measuring gentle to moderate north to northeasterly breezes. From synopsis: An early season cold front will remain draped across the distant Straits of Florida for much of the weekend, supporting light to gentle northerlies. A Nor`easter off the Eastern Seaboard will support a northeasterly swell with large periods in the eastern marine zones through Sunday. The front will push back northward on Monday through the marine zones. Winds will then clock back around to the southeast to south for early next week, also accompanied by increasing rain and thunder chances. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1032 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH for the upcoming TAF period. While occasional cloud layers will be able to result in short lived MVFR CIGs, the pulses of cloud cover will be short lived. Expect general north to northeasterly surface winds to persist. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 502 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 A significantly drier airmass aloft continues to expand across the Florida Keys early this AM. Based on water vapor imagery, the cold front has progressed slightly farther south than expected, extending south-southwest from the parent nor`easter spinning off the Mid- Atlantic/New England coast, through the Bahamas and across to even slightly south of Cuba. Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will continue across the Keys and surrounding waters this morning, but will become light to gentle by this afternoon. The nor`easter will remain trapped between broad Atlantic ridging and persistent ridging over the Central CONUS before eventually breaking down and ejecting towards the northern Atlantic during the Monday to Wednesday timeframe. In the meantime, deep west-northwesterly flow will continue across the Keys this weekend as embedded shortwaves rotate around the coastal low and maintain some measure of cyclonic flow over the eastern Gulf. We`re already seeing the effects of this with isolated showers ongoing near the Lower Keys and in the Straits of Florida despite a deep layer of dry air measured on our 00Z RAOB above 900mb. MIMIC-TPW imagery shows even drier air surging south in the eastern Gulf. Any isolated development will remain rather benign today and tomorrow, and most of the day will feature mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Some locations along the Island Chain will see dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees on Sunday which will drop humidity values down into the 50-60% range. Our primary concern over the next couple of days and potentially into next week will be saltwater flooding of low-lying areas along the Keys caused by a peak in astronomical tides compounded by a backed up Gulf Stream due to the strong nor`easter and associated gale force winds along the East Coast. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the Upper Keys while a Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Lower to Middle Keys through at least this afternoon, but extensions are likely. Eventual upgrades may be needed for the Lower/Middle Keys early next week. Speaking of next week, it certainly looks as though our below-normal rain chances will be short-lived. On Monday, the lower-levels of the atmosphere will become influenced by Atlantic ridging which will extend across the Keys and promote a switch back to low-level southerly flow. Meanwhile to our north, the continental ridge is progged to retrograde westward just enough to allow the upper-level trough along the coast to deepen across the Southeast and into the Gulf. By Monday night, we`ll see a quick resurgence in moisture content with increasing rain and thunder chances. The mid to upper- level trough will continue to provide forcing across the area through at least Wednesday, even as the nor`easter begins to lift away, leaving behind residual upper-level troughing across the Florida Peninsula to as far south as the Yucatan. Global models indicate that piece of left behind upper-level energy may begin to deepen near the Yucatan by the middle to end of the week, potentially sustaining an active period across the Florida Keys through the end of the forecast period. Unfortunately, a wet forecast on top of King Tides may exacerbate the flooding issues, but the details will be ironed out as we get closer. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 87 78 87 78 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 86 77 85 78 / 10 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1280154 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:00 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 855 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 852 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 - Northeast winds bring another taste of Fall to the area throughout the weekend. - Elevated fire concerns are possible due to low humidity on Saturday and Sunday afternoons. && .UPDATE... Issued at 852 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 The previous forecast is on track, and no updates were needed. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 207 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Enjoy this weekend as it will feel very comfortable outside through at least Sunday area-wide, and potentially through most of Monday as well for areas away from the Gulf Coast. Daytime highs will generally be in the 80s with overnight lows generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s. High pressure looks to continue building across the southeast, reinforced by an area of low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast this weekend. This aforementioned large area of low pressure looks to whip PV south via shortwaves rounding the base of the cutoff low. This will allow for some forcing for ascent across our northeast Gulf waters on Monday with PWATs that push up into the 1.5 to 2 inch range offshore, at the far tail end of influence from this system. Rain chances, generally 25% or less, will remain confined to our coastal and marine zones and into the southeast FL Big Bend. Inland areas will see rain chances be near nil as dry northwesterly air pushes southeast. By Tuesday this system will have moved into the Northeast/New England and back to near nil rain chances we go area- wide as that forcing for ascent departs. Late Tuesday, surface high pressure looks to move off the Atlantic Coast allowing winds to clock around to being south-southeasterly through the rest of the long term period. This will gradually increase our rain chances mid-week through next weekend. This unfortunately means temperatures and dew points will be on the rise for the second half of the week, with daytime highs back in the 90s and overnight lows back in the 70s. && .LONG TERM... && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 552 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with mostly clear skies and light winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 207 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Light to moderate northerly breezes continue today before turning more westerly Sunday as high pressure settles over the northeastern Gulf. Wave heights will generally be 2 feet or less through the weekend and into the first half of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 207 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Relative humidity values will drop to near critical levels, or 25% to 30%, this afternoon. Transport and surface winds out of the northeast today turns more northwesterly on Sunday at around 10 mph both afternoons. This may result in elevated fire danger this weekend, especially in areas that have been dry recently. Moisture slowly works back into the region beginning Tuesday afternoon with rain chances returning Wednesday and Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 207 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Generally, less than an inch of rainfall is expected through the middle of next week. There are currently no riverine flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 85 62 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 85 69 87 67 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 86 61 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 85 59 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 83 58 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 83 59 86 67 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 83 69 85 71 / 0 0 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1280153 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:18 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 804 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes in the forecast for the ongoing Nor`easter. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong/long duration Nor`easter will continue to bring damaging wind gusts, coastal flooding/beach erosion, and periods of heavy rain through the weekend. Rain and gusty winds persist into Monday. - One final day of wet and unsettled weather Tuesday before a warming and drying trend arrives next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong/long duration Nor`easter will continue to bring damaging wind gusts, coastal flooding/beach erosion, and periods of heavy rain through the weekend. Rain and gusty winds persist into Monday. What`s there to be said about the ongoing early season nor`easter that hasn`t been said already...not much! Things are playing out largely as expected so far...OPC surface analysis indicates the 996mb surface low spinning well to our south. It`s on its way north, slowly, before it makes a sharp westward turn into New Jersey tonight/tomorrow. So far we`ve already seen some minor coastal flooding on Nantucket where ~2 feet of storm surge pushed water levels into minor flood stage during the overnight high tide. The area of most concern continues to be the east coast of MA, especially south of Boston, where a several factors are at play. These include the long duration of the winds and long NE fetch, inability for water to fully recede between high tides, and the steadily rising astronomical tides. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for these east facing locations where the greatest concern will be the Saturday afternoon and overnight high tides, though we`ll be flirting with minor flooding through Sunday. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the south coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island where more sporadic minor coastal flooding is possible due to high surf just offshore and increasing swells. Winds have increased as expected, with widespread gusts of 45 to 55 mph observed from Cape Cod and the islands to coastal Rhode Island while several coastal stations have reported gusts 60+ mph. This occurred as the core of a 65kt LLJ moved overhead tonight and this continues to lift north and west (weakening) through Saturday and Sunday. That is why timing of the strongest wind gusts won`t be identical for everyone...more likely later Saturday into Sunday for northeast MA for example. Regardless, northeast winds will be relentlessly gusty through Sunday, gusting 35-45 mph for most inland locations and as high as 45-55 mph along the coast at times. The timing of this storm before trees have lost their leaves will exacerbate impacts from broken limbs and increase the potential for power outages. Strong winds will continue through Sunday but won`t be as strong as the storm weakens. Even so, even Monday will be breezy and wet. This system will dump a lot of rain over the next 72 hours thanks to the impressive moisture and dynamics...anomalous PWATs and the previously mentioned 925mb jet along with orographic lift into the higher terrain. Rainfall totals of 3-5" are expected. The best chance at these higher amounts is along the coasts and the east slopes of the CT hills, Worcester hills. Flood risk will be mitigated by the long duration of the event, though pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding are possible. KEY MESSAGE 2...One final day of wet and unsettled weather Tuesday before a warming and drying trend arrives next week. The first part of the extended forecast features lingering effects from our decaying nor`easter as the upper level low will be slow to exit. Thus, while we won`t see the wind and rain that we saw over the weekend to start the work week, it will still be wet and unsettled. By Tuesday afternoon guidance shows gradual clearing from SW to NE with even some breaks of sunshine possible later in the afternoon! By Wednesday, the upper air pattern begins to change as a ridge builds over the eastern CONUS. By Thursday, 500mb heights build to 582dm and seems to persist through at least the end of the week across ensemble guidance. Closer to the surface, 850 mb temperature anomalies soar to +6-10C above climo through late week. At the surface this translates to a period of late-summer like warmth with highs in the upper 70s to perhaps low 80s inland. Outside of Tuesday, the only chance for any precipitation arrives later Thursday into Friday as a weakening shortwave approaches the region from the west. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12z TAF Update... Today through Sunday...High confidence in trends, moderate confidence in timing. Periods of windswept rain will impact the region through Sunday. There actually were VFR ceilings northwest of I-95 given some mid level dry air...but those will deteriorate over the next few hours. This will result in low end MVFR- IFR conditions...But brief LIFR conditions possible in bands of heavy rain. Low risk of an isolated t-storm...but not worth including in any of the TAF forecasts at this point. NE wind gusts of 30 to 50 knots expected with the strongest of those winds near the coast tonight. An initial surge occurred near the south coast, Cape and Islands earlier this morning. A second surge will occur later today and especially after 00z across CT/RI and eastern MA. Wind gusts will diminish a bit on Sunday...But still expect NE wind gusts of 25 to 40 knots. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends, moderate confidence in timing. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in trends, moderate confidence in timing. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local gusts up to 35 kt. SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through the Weekend... * Dangerous conditions for Mariners through the weekend with NE wind gusts of 45 to 60 knots and seas offshore of 15-25 feet. The strengthening early season Nor`easter will bring strong NE wind gusts of 45-60 knots and seas offshore building to between 15 and 25 feet. The strongest of the winds/seas will be early this morning and peak Sat into Sat night...but seas will remain quite high Sun into Mon along with NE wind gusts of 25 to 40 knots persisting. Storm Warnings continue for all the waters. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain showers. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for CTZ002>004. MA...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for MAZ004>006-011>014-017- 018-026. High Wind Warning until 8 AM EDT Sunday for MAZ007-015-016- 019>024. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for MAZ007-015-016- 019-022>024. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Sunday for MAZ007-015-016- 019-022>024. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for MAZ020-021. RI...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for RIZ001. High Wind Warning until 8 AM EDT Sunday for RIZ002>008. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for RIZ002- 004>008. MARINE...Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230>234-236- 250-251-254-255-280>282. Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ235-237-256-283. && $$ |
| #1280152 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:09 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 756 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 755 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 - Very limited rain chances across the area through Monday. - Slightly cooler and less humid air will fill into the area through the weekend and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 A beautiful day on tap today thanks to a cooler, drier air mass advecting over the area. Northeasterly flow associated with a closed low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will help keep the cooler, drier air filtering through the weekend. Many this morning will wake up to temperatures in the 60s with a few northern areas in the upper 50s. Highs today will top out in the mid 80s. Lower humidity today will make for a pleasant, fall-like day. These comfortable conditions will hold through the weekend and into Monday. Early in the week, high pressure will begin to build off the east coast Florida, allowing for the flow to turn more southerly. As the flow turns, more moisture will begin to filter in, raising humidity once again. Rain chances will also begin to gradually increase each day through the end of the week. Temperatures will also increase each day, reaching back to near or slightly above normal. In other words, fall-like conditions will quickly be replaced by more summer- like conditions once again. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 755 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Dry VFR expected through the period with generally NW through NE flow locally in response to a strong surface high over the Great Lakes/SE Canada and a mature Mid-Atlantic/NE U.S. coastal low pressure system. Winds less than 10 knots through the period... NW`ly and highest in the afternoon, and NE`ly and lightest overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 257 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Marine conditions will gradually begin to improve as winds slowly diminish through the weekend. Northeast to north winds will continue through the weekend. Early next week, high pressure off the east coast of Florida will bring more south to south east winds. Rain chances increase by mid week as moisture moves back over the area. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 257 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Dry air over the area will keep RH values low, with northern areas dropping close to critical levels. Winds will remain below 15mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 85 66 86 69 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 86 67 86 68 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 86 63 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 85 66 86 69 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 85 60 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 85 69 85 73 / 0 0 0 0 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 8 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 8 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1280149 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:54 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 742 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes coming down the track as we approach 8 AM EDT. KILM bottomed out at 53F this morning, the coolest low temperature recorded since June 3rd (51F that morning). Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Minor coastal flooding will remain a concern during high tides through the weekend. 2) Our cool Canadian airmass will gradually modify with dry weather continuing. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Minor coastal flooding will remain a concern during high tides through the weekend. Tide gauges at Wrightsville Beach and Myrtle Beach continue to report tidal anomalies in the +1.0 to +2.0 foot range, held there by the broad cyclonic flow around strong low pressure now centered off the Mid Atlantic coast. When this anomaly is added to astronomical tides, minor coastal flooding appears likely to occur during each high tide today through at least Sunday morning. Another round of Coastal Flood Advisories is being issued for this morning`s high tide, expected to peak around 7:30 AM at the beaches and around 10 AM on the Cape Fear River at downtown Wilmington. The tidal anomaly should begin to fade Monday and Tuesday as the low weakens, but large astronomical tides enhanced by this month`s Full Moon may make up the difference and maintain the potential for minor flooding during high tides through Tuesday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Our cool Canadian airmass will gradually modify with dry weather continuing. We`ve already had two mornings in a row with temperatures in the 50s and at least two more are coming. It certainly feels like Fall has finally reached the Carolinas! Northwesterly flow between low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast and high pressure over the Great Lakes and Ontario will maintain dry air and below normal temperatures through Sunday. As the low weakens next week we should lose the flow from Canada, replaced by west to southwest winds bearing warmer temperatures and higher dewpoints. After highs today in the upper 70s to near 80, highs by Tuesday and Wednesday should reach the upper 80s to perhaps 90 degrees across the inland Pee Dee region. Normal highs for late September are lower 80s. Rain chances appear to remain negligible through the next seven days. Mid and upper level high pressure will expand across the Southeast states for the middle and end of next week. The warm and dry conditions aloft should help keep the atmosphere too stable for significant chances of showers. This is not good news for parts of our region that did not pick up significant rain over the past couple of weeks. Lumberton`s three-week rainfall total of 0.61" is only 18 percent of normal. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions will continue over the coming 24 hours. Northwest winds could gust as high as 20 kt between 14-18Z this afternoon. Calm to light winds up to 5-6 kts overnight tonight. Extended Outlook...VFR conditions should prevail through the first half of next week. There is a low chance of morning ground fog Tuesday and Wednesday as shallow Atlantic moisture returns onshore. && .MARINE... Strong low pressure centered east of the Delmarva Peninsula should slowly move toward the NJ coastline Sunday into Monday. Decreasing winds and waves this far south mean we should be able to let the Small Craft Advisory expire on-schedule at 8 AM for the North Carolina coastal waters as seas fall below 6 feet inside 20 miles of shore. Our dominant wave group should remain the 11 to 13 second northeasterly swell, decreasing in height over the next few days. Weak high pressure should build along the Southeast coast next week, providing a light to moderate west to southwest flow across the Carolinas. Dry weather should continue. A small west to southwesterly wind chop will arise at times beginning Sunday, but combined sea heights should remain well below advisory criteria. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NCZ106- 108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1280147 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 733 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes in the forecast for the ongoing Nor`easter. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong/long duration Nor`easter will continue to bring damaging wind gusts, coastal flooding/beach erosion, and periods of heavy rain through the weekend. Rain and gusty winds persist into Monday. - One final day of wet and unsettled weather Tuesday before a warming and drying trend arrives next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong/long duration Nor`easter will continue to bring damaging wind gusts, coastal flooding/beach erosion, and periods of heavy rain through the weekend. Rain and gusty winds persist into Monday. What`s there to be said about the ongoing early season nor`easter that hasn`t been said already...not much! Things are playing out largely as expected so far...OPC surface analysis indicates the 996mb surface low spinning well to our south. It`s on its way north, slowly, before it makes a sharp westward turn into New Jersey tonight/tomorrow. So far we`ve already seen some minor coastal flooding on Nantucket where ~2 feet of storm surge pushed water levels into minor flood stage during the overnight high tide. The area of most concern continues to be the east coast of MA, especially south of Boston, where a several factors are at play. These include the long duration of the winds and long NE fetch, inability for water to fully recede between high tides, and the steadily rising astronomical tides. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for these east facing locations where the greatest concern will be the Saturday afternoon and overnight high tides, though we`ll be flirting with minor flooding through Sunday. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the south coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island where more sporadic minor coastal flooding is possible due to high surf just offshore and increasing swells. Winds have increased as expected, with widespread gusts of 45 to 55 mph observed from Cape Cod and the islands to coastal Rhode Island while several coastal stations have reported gusts 60+ mph. This occurred as the core of a 65kt LLJ moved overhead tonight and this continues to lift north and west (weakening) through Saturday and Sunday. That is why timing of the strongest wind gusts won`t be identical for everyone...more likely later Saturday into Sunday for northeast MA for example. Regardless, northeast winds will be relentlessly gusty through Sunday, gusting 35-45 mph for most inland locations and as high as 45-55 mph along the coast at times. The timing of this storm before trees have lost their leaves will exacerbate impacts from broken limbs and increase the potential for power outages. Strong winds will continue through Sunday but won`t be as strong as the storm weakens. Even so, even Monday will be breezy and wet. This system will dump a lot of rain over the next 72 hours thanks to the impressive moisture and dynamics...anomalous PWATs and the previously mentioned 925mb jet along with orographic lift into the higher terrain. Rainfall totals of 3-5" are expected. The best chance at these higher amounts is along the coasts and the east slopes of the CT hills, Worcester hills. Flood risk will be mitigated by the long duration of the event, though pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding are possible. KEY MESSAGE 2...One final day of wet and unsettled weather Tuesday before a warming and drying trend arrives next week. The first part of the extended forecast features lingering effects from our decaying nor`easter as the upper level low will be slow to exit. Thus, while we won`t see the wind and rain that we saw over the weekend to start the work week, it will still be wet and unsettled. By Tuesday afternoon guidance shows gradual clearing from SW to NE with even some breaks of sunshine possible later in the afternoon! By Wednesday, the upper air pattern begins to change as a ridge builds over the eastern CONUS. By Thursday, 500mb heights build to 582dm and seems to persist through at least the end of the week across ensemble guidance. Closer to the surface, 850 mb temperature anomalies soar to +6-10C above climo through late week. At the surface this translates to a period of late-summer like warmth with highs in the upper 70s to perhaps low 80s inland. Outside of Tuesday, the only chance for any precipitation arrives later Thursday into Friday as a weakening shortwave approaches the region from the west. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12z TAF Update... Today through Sunday...High confidence in trends, moderate confidence in timing. Periods of windswept rain will impact the region through Sunday. This will result in low end MVFR-IFR conditions...But brief LIFR conditions possible in bands of heavy rain. Low risk of an isolated t-storm...but not worth including in any of the TAF forecasts at this point. NE wind gusts of 30 to 50 knots expected with the strongest of those winds near the coast tonight. An initial surge occurred near the south coast, Cape and Islands earlier this morning. A second surge will occur later today and especially after 00z across CT/RI and eastern MA. Wind gusts will diminish a bit on Sunday...But still expect NE wind gusts of 25 to 40 knots. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends, moderate confidence in timing. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in trends, moderate confidence in timing. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local gusts up to 35 kt. SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through the Weekend... * Dangerous conditions for Mariners through the weekend with NE wind gusts of 45 to 60 knots and seas offshore of 15-25 feet. The strengthening early season Nor`easter will bring strong NE wind gusts of 45-60 knots and seas offshore building to between 15 and 25 feet. The strongest of the winds/seas will be early this morning and peak Sat into Sat night...but seas will remain quite high Sun into Mon along with NE wind gusts of 25 to 40 knots persisting. Storm Warnings continue for all the waters. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain showers. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for CTZ002>004. MA...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for MAZ004>006-011>014-017- 018-026. High Wind Warning until 8 AM EDT Sunday for MAZ007-015-016- 019>024. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for MAZ007-015-016- 019-022>024. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Sunday for MAZ007-015-016- 019-022>024. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for MAZ020-021. RI...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for RIZ001. High Wind Warning until 8 AM EDT Sunday for RIZ002>008. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for RIZ002- 004>008. MARINE...Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230>234-236- 250-251-254-255-280>282. Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ235-237-256-283. && $$ |
| #1280146 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 747 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Nor`easter Conditions slowly weaken this weekend. Life- Threatening Rip Current and Surf Zone Conditions. Minor Tidal Flooding this weekend for the St Johns River (north of - Small Craft Advisories through Tonight - Isolated Thunderstorm activity returns mid to late week && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights through Tonight: - High rip current risk and elevated surf to continue into Tonight - Minor flooding possible the St Johns river with next couple of high tide cycles through this evening Winds are calm inland this morning while remaining light 5-10 mph from the north along the coast and St Johns river as the pressure gradient eases over the region as strong low pressure lifts further away to the north as high pressure ridging extends from the Midwest into the TN valley and southeast states. Dry northerly flow, clear skies, and winds backing to the northwest in the mid/upper levels is providing cool air advection with temperatures falling into the mid 50s across inland SE GA south and the I-10 corridor with upper 50s west of the St Johns river. But, northerly to NNE flow over the coast is keeping milder temperatures there in the low to mid 60s. High pressure over the deep south and southeast will remain the primary weather influence today with sunny skies and below normal highs in the low 80s inland and upper 70s to near 80 along the coast. Winds 5-10 mph will turn NNE this afternoon up to 10-15 mph behind the Atlantic seabreeze developing mid to late afternoon and turning winds northeasterly as the boundary moves west past I-95 mid afternoon and then past US-17 by late afternoon. Tonight, low to mid level ridging aloft will move over the area with winds decoupling inland to calm under mostly clear skies as a few high thin cirrus clouds arriving from the west. Lows will fall to the low/mid 50s west of I-95 in SE GA and west of US-17 in NE FL with upper 50s east of I-95 to near 60 at the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period (Sunday/Monday): - Minor Tidal Flooding Likely within the St. Johns River Basin. - Moderate to High Risk of Rip Currents at Atlantic Beaches - Temperatures return closer to normal values Sunday and Monday Light West to Northwest steering flow and a dry airmass in place will allow for daytime temps to return closer to seasonable values with highs in the middle 80s Sunday and into the upper 80s on Monday with no rainfall expected. Overnight lows will still remain cooler than normal with lows in the 50s/lower 60s inland both nights and mid/upper 60s closer to the Atlantic Coast. Patchy fog will be possible over inland areas around sunrise both mornings, but significant dense fog in not expected due to the dry airmass in place. Lingering minor tidal flooding will remain within the St. Johns River Basin during times of high tide, but will begin to lessen by Monday as offshore flow develops. Moderate to high risk of rip currents will linger at Atlantic beaches due to the remaining swells and rough surf despite the offshore flow. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Main Highlights This Period (Tuesday through Friday): - Return to above normal temperatures and increasing rain chances late in the week Initially dry weather conditions will be in place on Tuesday and Wednesday but above normal temperatures will return with highs into the lower 90s inland and 80s along the Atlantic Coast. Long range models suggesting a tropical wave with deeper moisture in SE flow will track NW up the Florida Peninsula and into the Eastern Gulf late in the week with increasing rainfall chances and potential thunderstorm activity on Thursday and Friday, mostly for NE FL but some moisture will push into SE GA for at least scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon/evening hours. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail during the period. Only exception will be lingering restrictions around sunrise at VQQ due to localized patchy fog. Near calm winds this morning will become northerly 5-8 knots this afternoon and up to around 10 knots at SGJ/SSI and turn northeasterly behind the weak Atlantic seabreeze this afternoon, winds then become calm after 00Z inland and light and variable at the coast under a few high clouds. && .MARINE... Strong low pressure to the northeast will track further away to the north through the end of the weekend as high pressure builds southward from the eastern Great Lakes into the southeast. As low pressure lifts away, the pressure gradient will ease over the region with gradually diminishing winds and seas through this evening, ending small craft conditions nearshore late this morning and offshore this evening. High pressure will shift over the region Sunday and Monday with prevailing west to southwest winds, turning southeasterly in the afternoon nearshore from the Atlantic seabreeze circulation. High pressure will shift east of the waters midweek with southerly winds, turning easterly in the afternoon over the nearshore waters from seabreeze circulation. Increasing moisture will bring a return of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the waters by midweek. Rip Currents: Breezy north northeasterly winds today, long period swells, and elevated surf heights up to 4 to 6 feet will continue high risk of rip currents today. Long period swells will persist through Sunday and continue a high risk of rip currents through the end of the weekend at Northeast FL beaches with a high end moderate risk at Southeast Georgia beaches. && .FIRE WEATHER... Over the weekend a dry airmass will push across the area and lower afternoon humidity to at least 25-30% for several inland districts Today, Sunday, and Monday. Surface and transport winds will then shift to northeasterly Today, with breezy conditions persisting at coastal locations. Fair to good daytime dispersion values are forecast area-wide. Winds will become light and turn westerly on Sunday. Warming temperatures and rising humidity levels are expected through next week with winds favoring the diurnal Atlantic sea breeze regime. Fog Potential...Significant fog formation unlikely the next several days. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides will continue rising through the start of the weekend due to the upcoming Full "Harvest" Moon later today. Breezy north to northeasterly onshore winds today will keep trapped tides within the St Johns river with water slow to drain Sunday into early next week due to lingering high astronomical tides and light winds. Water levels peaking during high tide between 1.5 - 2 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) from Friday evening`s high tides are forecast to peak again between 1.5 - 2 feet MHHW for the upcoming high tide cycles this morning and again this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 81 54 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 80 61 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 80 56 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 80 60 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 82 55 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 84 57 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ125-132- 137-225-325-633. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ472-474. && $$ |
| #1280144 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:36 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 619 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 617 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 - Above-normal temperatures continue through early next week. - Attention turns to an potential "cold" front towards the middle and latter half of next week, bringing slightly cooler temperatures and widespread low to moderate rain chances. - Minor coastal flooding possible starting early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Mid-level ridging will remain the dominant feature across South Texas through the weekend and into early next week, maintaining generally hot and mostly dry conditions. While an isolated sea breeze shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, most locations should remain dry through Monday. Attention then turns to the evolving mid-level pattern beginning Tuesday and especially Wednesday through the latter half of the week. Global guidance continues to disagree on the evolution and placement of a mid-level low as it interacts with a mid-level ridge anchored across the southeastern U.S. Despite these differences, the overall trend suggests the low will ride northward around the western and northern periphery of the ridge. This would keep the stronger forcing and much of the associated PVA north of South Texas. Even with the better mid-level forcing displaced to the north, increasing moisture and sufficient instability should support a gradual increase in convective coverage beginning Tuesday. Low to moderate rain chances Tuesday become more widespread Wednesday as moisture deepens across the region/ Moderate chances for showers and thunderstorms are the expected Thursday through Saturday. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the exact evolution and the mid-level low and ridge interaction, and relatively small changes in the track of the low could affect the amount of forcing that reaches South Texas. Therefore, confidence remains low that the cold front will make it this far south. Subsequent model runs should help refine the details. Temperatures will remain above normal through early next week. Increasing cloud cover and convective coverage during the latter half of the week may provide some moderation to daytime temperatures, though warm and humid conditions will persist. Look for afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s drop to mid-80s to 90s next weekend. Overnight lows in the low to upper 70s is expected to drop a few degrees as well. A moderate to major heat risk continues through this weekend into next Wednesday so please continue to practice heat safety. The potential for minor coastal flooding will begin to increase Sunday evening and may persist through at least the middle of next week. P-ETSS guidance indicates water levels approaching the dunes around times of high tide beginning Sunday evening, followed by a gradual upward trend through at least Wednesday. Astronomical tides will also be elevated following the full moon Saturday evening. There remain some limiting factors that lower confidence in the extent of any coastal flooding. Swell periods are currently expected to remain relatively short at less the 7 seconds, while variable winds may remain too weak to provide a substantial additional onshore push. Nevertheless, given the combination of elevated astronomical tides and the upward trend in the forecast water levels, minor coastal flooding will be possible around the times of high tide beginning Sunday evening. Trends will continue to be monitored over the next several forecast cycles. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 While not expected with the previous TAF forecast, fog ended up developing across VCT as well. MVFR visibilities will still be possible for ALI and VCT for the next couple of hours as well as MVFR ceilings in COT. Other than that, VFR conditions can be expected with light winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Generally, a gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) east to southeasterly flow is expected to persist throughout the first half of next week, with seas between 2-4 feet. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible each day, with rain chances increasing by the middle of next week as deeper moisture moves into the region. Winds may become more onshore and seas could increase somewhat ahead of an approaching cold front, though uncertainty remains regarding the timing and southward progression of the boundary. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 No significant fire weather concerns are anticipated through the period. Minimum RH values will generally remain above 30% across the western portions of South Texas, while east to southeast winds 10-15 mph may increase to 20 mph or higher around mid-week in response to an approaching disturbance. However, RH should be elevated at that time and ERC values are expected to remain near the 50th to 65th percentile with normal fuel dryness. Moisture will begin to increase Tuesday as deeper Gulf moisture spreads into South Texas. Increasing RH and gradually increasing rain chances starting Tuesday through the end of the week should further limit fire weather concerns, with moderate rain chances expected across much of the region by Thursday through Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 75 94 76 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 98 71 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 100 76 101 77 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 98 72 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 92 77 92 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 99 75 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 97 73 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 89 80 90 81 / 0 0 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1280143 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:30 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 720 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 - Dangerous beach and marine conditions today will persist into at least Sunday with elevated wave heights, a high risk of rip currents, and rough, pounding surf continuing. Entering the ocean is not advised! - A taste of fall is in store for the rest of the week and into early next week, as drier and somewhat cooler conditions gradually filter down the peninsula. - Rain and storm chances return to the forecast from Tuesday onward as moisture begins to increase once again across the area, with a slight trend upward in temperatures towards the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Today-Tonight... Upper level cutoff low paired with a nor`easter off the North Carolina coast will slowly move northward through the day. At the surface, broad high pressure will build over the Florida peninsula. Locally, breezy northerly winds will persist today, with speeds around 10 mph across the interior, and 10-15 mph along the coast with gusts to around 20 mph possible at times. Drier air will filter down across the local area today, with forecast PW values dropping to 0.8-1.3" this afternoon. This will result in little to no rain and lightning storm chances today, with the greatest potential for rain (PoP 20 percent) occurring across the southern Treasure Coast. Seasonable temperatures are forecast today, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s with heat indices in the 80s to potentially up to 90s degrees in the Treasure Coast. Overnight lows will be in the 60s. Despite the pleasant weather, beach conditions are forecast to remain poor to hazardous today. Seas will be slow to subside through the day. A high risk of rip currents remains in effect today, with breaking waves of 4 to 6 feet, resulting in rough hazardous surf persisting. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged! Sunday-Monday... The upper level cut-off low and associated nor`easter off the eastern seaboard Sunday will lift northward, eventually pushing onshore across the New England coast by Monday. At the surface, broad high pressure will continue to build over the Florida peninsula as high pressure across the western Atlantic slowly builds westward towards the Caribbean. Locally, drier air will filter across the area, with forecast PW values falling to 1.0- 1.2" areawide. This will result in little to no rain and storm chances into early next week. The highest rain chances (PoP 20 percent) will be across the southern Treasure Coast on Monday. The pressure gradient slackens over the local area, with winds becoming light and variable through the period. Seasonable temperatures are forecast into early next week. Afternoon highs are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s Sunday, and mid to upper 80s on Monday. Peak heat indices will be in the upper 80s to low 90s on Monday. Overnight lows will be in the 60s, possibly reaching 70 degrees along the coast by Monday. Poor to hazardous conditions are forecast to continue at the beaches through at least Sunday as seas are slow to subside through early next week. A high risk of rip currents is forecast through at least Sunday, though it will may continue into Monday as well. Breaking waves of 3 to 6 feet will also persist, so rough, hazardous surf will also be present. Overall, entering the ocean is strongly discouraged through at least Sunday. Tuesday-Friday... Upper level trough over the eastern seaboard early next week will push off shore by midweek. A surface high pressure in the western Atlantic will slowly shift northward through the period. Model solutions begin to diverge later into the period. The global models vary slightly in timing and location of a mid-upper level trough and associated surface low swinging across the CONUS, bringing the attendant surface front towards Florida mid to late next week. Locally, onshore winds will remain in place, although there is some uncertainty if the winds will be more easterly or southeasterly. Moisture looks to recover slightly, however exactly how much remains in questions as forecast PW values range from near to below normal to above normal depending on the model. This has resulted in decreasing confidence in forecast rain chances and heat impacts. For now, have rain chances broadly increasing from near/below normal Tuesday, becoming near/above normal Wednesday through Friday (with rain chances increasing each day). Lightning storm chances also return on Wednesday onward. Temperatures will be seasonably warm once again, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. Due to the increase in moisture, peak heat indices will be in the mid to upper 90s. && .MARINE... Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Today-Wednesday... Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue today with breezy north to northeast winds at 10-15 KT with gusts 20- 25 KT today. Winds will continue to subside, with speeds 5-10 KT Sunday. Winds then shift offshore by Monday and Tuesday, remaining light before backing onshore each afternoon with the east coast sea breeze and increasing to around 10 KT. Seas 4-8ft in the nearshore and 6-9 ft in the offshore waters today will subside to 3-7ft by Sunday. Seas will continue to subside to 3-5ft on Monday, and 2-3ft on Tuesday and Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the waters through this afternoon, before tapering off to just the Gulf Stream waters this afternoon through tonight. Poor boating conditions will remain through at least the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible across the Treasure Coast waters today, with no mentionable rain chances on Sunday. Rain chances return on Monday as moisture increases once again, with isolated to scattered showers and storms focused across the Treasure Coast waters, and scattered to numerous showers and storms forecast across all the waters on Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 720 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 VFR continue. NNW winds 5-10 kt gradually shift more NNE after 18z, with gusts 15+ kt as a diffuse east coast breeze moves inland (esp. at coastal sites). Mainly SKC with FEW/SCT025-040 nearer to coastal sites. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 The St Johns River at Astor remains within Minor Flood Stage and is forecast to continue to rise, cresting on Sunday due to an ongoing period of northerly winds and tidal effects. River levels are forecast to then subside slightly before remaining steady through the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 82 63 84 66 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 85 63 85 66 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 83 68 84 69 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 84 67 84 68 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 84 64 85 66 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 84 62 85 65 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 84 63 84 66 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 84 66 84 67 / 10 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ550-552. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ555-570-572- 575. && $$ |
| #1280142 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:15 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 609 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 608 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 - Hotter than normal temperatures will continue through Wednesday of next week. - Widespread moderate (level 2 out of 4) to major (level 3 out of 4) heat risk with pockets of Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk to continue across the region through Wednesday of next week. - Heat spikes are possible Tuesday/Wednesday of next week with dangerous heat indices ranging between 105-115F degrees. - A welcome weather pattern change to cooler and wetter could take shape at the start of October (sometime mid to late next week). - Our next best and more widespread chances for rain (due to a cool front and nearby shortwave trough) will come mid to late next week; currently have low-medium chances (30-40%) areawide in the Wednesday through Friday timeframe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 The heat will continue to be the main weather storyline through Wednesday of next week. However, Wednesday through Friday of next week (or as we move into the month of October), the storyline will shift towards the increasing chances for a major weather pattern change towards cooler and wetter conditions, driven by El Nino influences. We start off the forecast period tonight where most of the diurnally and sea breeze driven rain showers will continue to decrease in coverage across the region giving way to dry, warm, and humid conditions under mostly clear skies. Saturday through Monday of next week, Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will remain under the influences of a strong heat ridge, though it will begin weakening. Subsidence from the heat ridge will result in rain-free and hotter than normal temperatures. High temperatures during this time will range between the upper 90s to lower 100s. Tuesday through Wednesday of next week is when things get interesting regarding our aforementioned pattern shift. Hurricane Polo during this time is expected to make landfall over the Baja Peninsula of California, northern Mexico, and eventually northern Texas. Along with the re-curvature of Hurricane Polo, deep tropical moisture from the Eastern Pacific will stream will begin to stream into the region from the west-southwest. Meanwhile, deep tropical moisture from the Gulf of America will begin to stream into the region from the south, courtesy of a large Bermuda high to the east. The combination of deep tropical moisture streaming in from these two source regions along with the aforementioned heat dome in place (though weakening) could result in a heat spike with high heat indices Tuesday and Wednesday. Increased humidity levels with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will result in a return to dangerous peak heat indices ranging between 105-113F degrees Tuesday and Wednesday. This will trigger widespread Major (Level 3 of 4) to Extreme Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk over the region. Special Weather Statements (SPSs) and/or a Heat Advisory may be needed Tuesday and Wednesday. Additionally, during this time (Tuesday through Wednesday of next week), a southeastward advancing cool front will be traversing across Texas gradually approaching Deep South Texas. Meanwhile, there are indications of a weak shortwave trough and mid-upper energies residing near Deep South Texas and northeast Mexico. The combination of a nearby mid-upper impulses, an approaching cool front, and the influx of deep tropical moisture from both the Gulf of America and the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean will support widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning Wednesday and persisting through then end of next week and possibly longer. This is the potential pattern shift that we`ve been closely monitoring, and if realized, will bring the breakthrough rains that we`ve been waiting for so long as well as a notably cooler pattern due to the increase cloud coverage and rains. This potential pattern shift to start October has El Nino written all over it. Again, we will continue to closely monitor forecast trends in the days ahead. Currently, we`ve have low- medium (30-50%) PoPs Wednesday through Friday areawide. It`s too early to get into the exact impacts, but heavy rainfall is possible given the surge of tropical moisture. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 608 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours, with light to moderate winds and clear to partly cloudy skies. A TEMPO for convection has been added based on the HRRR model. && .MARINE... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Generally, favorable marine conditions will persist through Monday of next week with low to moderate seas (wave heights between 1-3 feet) and winds. Tuesday/Wednesday and points forward, conditions will become more adverse due to the threat for showers and thunderstorms as well as increased seas. SCEC to Small Craft Advisories may be needed in the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 95 79 96 79 / 30 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 98 74 99 74 / 20 0 10 0 MCALLEN 101 78 102 79 / 20 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 101 77 102 77 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 82 89 82 / 30 0 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 93 77 94 77 / 20 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ |
| #1280141 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:12 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 610 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 607 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 - A cooler and drier air mass remains present into the beginning of next week bringing below normal low temperatures and lower humidity. && .UPDATE... Issued at 607 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Current forecast on track with no updates needed at this time. /16 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 We had our first real taste of fall Friday with largely below normal temperatures and very comfortable dewpoints in the low 60s. High temperatures will slowly increase to at/above normal by Sunday with largely upper 80s and low 90s expected through the remainder of the forecast period. Thanks to such a dry air mass, the afternoon dewpoints are decent in the low 60s Saturday and further drop for interior areas into the 50s through Tuesday. This keeps humidity quite low and it will feel much more comfortable than typical when temperatures are near 90. Even though high temperatures will be above normal, low temperatures will generally be slightly below normal with upper 60s along the coast and low 60s inland, potentially even some upper 50s for our far northern counties. The area continues to have dry conditions with near zero pops through at least the beginning of next week. PWATs are well below normal around 1.1 inches. PWATs stay below normal leading into next Wednesday before more appreciable moisture return puts the area at/above normal to end the week in conjunction with decreasing subsidence as a trough moves in from the west. This change increases precipitation chances with scattered to locally numerous storms to end the week. ...BEACH FORECAST... For the beaches in southern Alabama and the northwest Florida Panhandle, the rip current risk drops to LOW for Saturday into mid next week and surf heights remain around 1 foot. SS/97 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 607 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Light northeasterly winds will become easterly, then southeasterly 5 to 10 knots by this afternoon. /16 && .MARINE... Issued at 336 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Light to at time moderate northeasterly flow will transition to a light onshore today, then become more variable into the coming week. A more persistent onshore flow returns by mid week as a surface ridge builds west over the Southeast. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 87 68 90 63 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 86 70 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 84 72 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 86 63 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 87 64 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 86 62 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 87 64 89 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1280140 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:06 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 702 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect for a large portion of the area through Sunday morning. Wind Advisories continue through late morning for Worcester County in MD and the VA Eastern Shore. Storm Warnings for the coastal waters off the Eastern Shore have been down graded to Gale Warnings through late this evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Gusty conditions continue today with rain chances returning to the coast as a nor`easter strengthens this weekend. 2) Widespread moderate to major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3+ feet AGL in vulnerable areas) will continue into Saturday night or early Sunday morning at most spots, with some locations especially in the middle Bay seeing flooding persist through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 315 AM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Gusty conditions continue today with rain chances returning to the coast as a nor`easter strengthens this weekend. The nor`easter continues to strengthen offshore, tracking towards NJ later this weekend before wobbling up the New England coast early next week. Confidence is high in continued impacts locally, especially for the Eastern Shore. The position of the low, as well as the strong high pressure over the Great lakes, allows gusty winds to continue again today across the coast. Wind gusts of 35-40 mph are possible along the immediate coast (coastal MD Eastern Shore could see gusts to 45 mph briefly this morning). Wind Advisories are in effect through 11 AM this morning along the Eastern Shore coastal waters (Worcester, Accomack, and Northampton counties). At this time, these will be allowed to expire, as winds begin to decrease slightly during the day. Interior portions will also see gusts to 25- 30 mph this afternoon from well atmospheric mixing. Winds will gradually diminish tonight through Sunday, but remaining breezy with gusts to 30 mph along the coast. High pressure will then build into the area Monday, helping kick the nor`easter further offshore bringing lighter winds back. Rain chances will build back into the area from the NE as the low slides north and west. The steadier rain will likely remain on the Eastern Shore where QPF is between 0.5-1.0". For other coastal areas, the rain should stay on the lighter side closer to drizzle with QPF under 0.25". This late afternoon/evening, rain/drizzle could push as far west as the piedmont based on the latest hi-res models. Rain chances will linger mostly for the Eastern Shore on Sunday, but otherwise drying out. High pressure takes over next week leading to calmer weather. Looking at dry conditions and temperatures warming back into the 80s through the week. Above average temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are possible for some late week as ridging builds over the southeast. KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread moderate to major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3+ feet AGL in vulnerable areas) will continue into Saturday night or early Sunday morning at most spots, with some locations especially in the middle Bay seeing flooding persist through the weekend. As a Nor`easter continues to develop off the coast, winds have continued to back over the region, now closer to N to NNE. In addition, the speeds have also decreased slightly at 20-30 kt with gusts to 35 kt. However, this has done little to change the coastal flood situation with most sites still seeing anomalies of 2.5-3.5 ft above normal astronomical tide. With little change overnight through Saturday, expect similar anomalies to persist. These anomalies combined with higher astronomical tides will likely will allow for continued rounds of Moderate to Major tidal flooding across a majority of the tidal sites through Saturday. Overall, storm surge guidance has trended even higher with the 12z runs, especially inside the Chesapeake Bay, for overnight and Saturday. This is due to the models trending west and slightly stronger with the Nor`easter. This will lead to a more N-NW flow inside the bay leading to more ebbing at the mouth of the Bay, it is also possible that especially the eastern and southern shores of the Chesapeake Bay could see increased water levels with a better onshore component to the winds. The tide forecast has been raised slightly for most sides, with the most substantial changes (~0.5 ft) across aforementioned areas. Coastal Flood Warnings were extended out another cycle, Saturday night-Sunday morning, and additional extensions are likely, especially across the middle Bay. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 650 AM EDT Saturday... Deepening low pressure offshore and high pressure well to the north will result in continued gusty N and NW winds through the period. VFR conditions are currently across all terminals early this morning, but MVFR CIGs will move back into the region, especially along the coast, from the NE to SW as the low pressure drifts back toward the NJ coast. CIGs will begin to degrade by 12z at SBY. IFR CIGs are possible this afternoon at SBY, but confidence is low at this time, so have included 1000 ft CIGs this afternoon. Additionally, mainly light rainfall is expected for the majority of the day at SBY, with lower chances elsewhere. ORF and PHF will see MVFR CIGs build in by late morning/early afternoon. RIC/ECG may be on the cusp of the MVFR CIGs, but confidence is not high enough to include at this time. Outlook: Intermittent flight restrictions from low CIGs may impact coastal terminals, especially SBY, into early Sunday. Gusty conditions are expected at the coast through at least tonight. Flight conditions improve, even near the coast, late Sunday and especially next week. && .MARINE... As of 700 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - A deepening Nor`easter will lift north offshore of the Delmarva coast toward Long Island through the weekend. Storm Warnings remain in place for the offshore zones north of Parramore Island through late morning, with Gale Warnings for most of the remaining waters aside from the VA rivers and Currituck Sound. - Dangerous marine conditions continue through tonight into Sunday, with the worst conditions anticipated tonight into Saturday morning. Latest analysis reveals a deepening ~990 mb Nor`easter centered ~150 miles off the Delmarva coast. Meanwhile, ~1028 mb high pressure is situated over the upper Great Lakes region, extending NE into SE QC. Dangerous boating conditions continue over the local waters, with the latest obs showing NNW winds 15-25 kt over the E VA rivers and Currituck Sound, and 20-30 kt, gusting to 35-40 kt over the bay, with 25 to 35 kt winds gusting to 45 to 55 kt over the coastal waters, highest per GOES DMW and Scatterometer data over the northern offshore waters just south of the deepening nor`easter. Seas 11-18 ft, highest south of Cape Charles and offshore. Only change is to add Small Craft Advisory for Currituck Sound through tonight. Otherwise, Storm Warnings continue until around sunrise for the nearshore coastal waters north of Parramore Island, and until late morning for the offshore waters north of Cape Charles. Gale Warnings continue for much of the rest of the waters through late this evening, with Small Craft Advisories in effect for the E VA rivers. Winds gradually diminish later today and tonight, as the low slowly weakens and meanders toward the NJ coast into Sunday/Sunday night. the system is then forecast to exit slowly to the NNE Monday into Monday night. Wind direction gradually shift NNW through tonight. Winds fall below Gale thresholds for all locations this evening/ early Sunday morning and expect Gales will be replaced by SCA, which should then continue into early Monday. Calmer conditions are then in the forecast through the middle of next week, as high pressure rebuilds from the west. COASTAL HAZARDS: Finally, the long-duration NNE winds continue to result in dangerously high seas, currently in the 10-15 ft range. Dangerous surf conditions will continue through the rest of the weekend, with a high rip current risk persisting into the weekend due to elevated seas even as winds become NNW. Localized beach and dune erosion remain possible. High Surf Advisories have been extended through Saturday night. Coastal Flood Warnings have been extended into Sunday afternoon for most of the area, and into Sunday night on the Chesapeake Bay side of the MD Lower Eastern Shore. Anomalies have increased this morning as deepening Nor`easter slowly lifts offshore of the Delmarva coast. Widespread moderate to major coastal flooding is forecast, with the worst impacts in the next 2-3 tide cycles before winds push offshore and anomalies slowly ease. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Sunday for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Warning until noon EDT Sunday for MDZ024-025. Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ025. NC...Coastal Flood Warning until noon EDT Sunday for NCZ102. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Warning until noon EDT Sunday for VAZ083-084-099- 100-518-520-523. Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT Sunday for VAZ075>078-081- 082-085-086-089-090-521-522-524-528. Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT Sunday for VAZ097-098-525- 529>531. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630>632-634- 650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ639. Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ654-656-658-684- 686-688. Storm Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ680-682. && $$ |
| #1280139 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:06 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 655 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Aviation Section was updated for the 12Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Cool weather lingers this weekend. Near to slightly above normal temperatures return next week. - 2) The coastal flood risk will persist into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Cool weather will linger into the weekend. Near to slightly above normal temperatures return next week. Quiet conditions continue to prevail across the region, as current observations show calm winds and clear skies. Thus, with the aid of efficient radiational cooling, have seen temperatures fall into mid 50s inland to lower 60s along the coast. These values will continue to fall in the coming hours, with locations further inland possibly dipping into the upper 40s prior to daybreak. Temperatures moderate fairly quickly this afternoon as upper level ridging builds aloft, allowing highs to warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s, which is still a touch below normal for this time of year. Otherwise, expect similar conditions to prevail this evening, as light winds and clear skies yield another chilly night. However, winds out of the south/southwest should help cap lows in the mid 50s. Looking ahead into next week, will see broad upper level ridging and sfc high pressure linger overhead, keeping conditions quiet across our area. Temperatures will continue to moderate during this time, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s likely again by mid-week. Moisture then increases Thursday into Friday along the backside of subtropical high pressure centered well offshore over the Atlantic, causing rain chances to return. Nonetheless, confidence remains too low at this time to narrow in on any specifics. KEY MESSAGE 2: The coastal flood risk will linger into early next week. Breezy north-northeasterly flow will continue across the region, as a nor`easter churns offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coastline. This combined with the recent full moon will result in minor (possibly moderate) coastal flooding with each high tide cycle this weekend (esp. for the Charleston Harbor). Charleston Harbor: Coastal flooding concerns will continue today (9/26) with the potential to reach moderate flood stage for Charleston and Colleton County with the morning high tide (~8AM). Thus, plan to issue a Coastal Flood Advisory with this forecast package, which will be in effect from 6 AM until 10 AM. Thereafter, it`s likely to see minor coastal flooding conditions through early next week for the Charleston Harbor. Fort Pulaski: Total water forecasts indicate this morning`s and Sunday morning`s high tide could peak around 9.5 ft MLLW, which will be close to yielding minor coastal flooding impacts across lower South Carolina and southeast Georgia. Given the borderline nature, will continue to monitor trends in the coming hours and issue a Coastal Flood Advisory if warranted. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR will prevail through the 12Z TAF period with SKC skies and NW winds shifting to the SW late this afternoon. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Today through Wednesday: Seas of 4-6 ft linger across the outer Georgia waters today, where a Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect. Should see seas wane heading into the evening, allowing all headlines to expire. Otherwise, expect fairly quiet marine conditions to dominate the coastal waters through the middle of next week. Some localized sea breeze enhancements should return across Charleston Harbor and the land/sea interface by Tuesday, but wind speeds look to remain fairly tame. Rip Currents: A lingering 10-12s backswell directed towards the Georgia and Florida coasts will support a moderate rip current risk from Tybee Island south to Sapelo Island both today and Sunday. A low risk is anticipated for the lower South Carolina beaches both days. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for SCZ149- 150. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ384. && $$ |
| #1280138 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:00 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 558 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 506 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 - Outside of a few isolated showers mainly across coastal southeastern Louisiana, quiet weather with warmer than normal temperatures will persist through the beginning of next week. - During the latter part of next week, a period of more active weather appears likely. While there is still significant uncertainty regarding the specifics, heavy rain could become a concern mainly Friday and into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 1018 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Very dry cool mornings and warm days through at least Tuesday, which is reminiscent of October type weather. Strange thing is September is normally wetter than October, and this may end up being the case this year as well, but it won`t seem like it as we move from September into October this time, but we`re getting ahead of ourselves. The dry air will hang around through Tuesday so enjoy it while its here because it will get replaced with deep moisture as we move through next week. But, the good thing is the dry air will be back at some point during October. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 1018 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Through Wednesday night the region will experience increased negative vorticity advection and subsidence as a southern stream shortwave ridge axis remains centered over the region. This increased ridging aloft will warm and dry the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, and this will lead to weak mid-level lapse rates of less than 5.0C/KM. This is reflected in the lack of instability as noted by SBCAPE values of around 500 J/KG. The end result will be a continuation of the dry and warm pattern through Wednesday night. Highs will continue to run around 5 degrees warmer than average in the lower 90s. Fortunately, the dry air in place will keep heat index values in check with most areas experiencing heat indices peaking in the upper 90s. The dry air will also allow for decent radiational cooling each night. Overnight lows should fall into the upper 60s inland and the low 70s along the coast Tuesday and Wednesday night. As we move into the latter part of the week, the ridge over the area will push to the east as a vigorous southern stream shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains and Texas. This trough will have deeper tropical moisture associated with it as the remnants of Hurricane Polo merge into the system. Fortunately, the heaviest rainfall on Thursday and Thursday night will remain west of the area, but increasing deep layer southeasterly flow in advance of the trough and a broad region of higher positive vorticity advection will support both PWATS rising back to the median for late September and increasing convective activity. Although there will some support aloft, the convection will be largely diurnal in nature with scattered showers and thunderstorms peaking in the afternoon hours over the region. By Thursday night, most of the activity will dissipate except out over the coastal waters. Temperatures will also be closer to average with highs in the upper 80s on Thursday and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s for Thursday night. A much wetter period of weather will then set up across the Gulf South for Friday and Friday night as the deep layer southerly flow pattern ushers in a surge of tropical moisture. PWATS will increase to around 1.75 inches and this will allow for continued scattered shower and thunderstorm activity to develop and for the rainfall rates to increase to 1 to 2 inches per hour. The broad region of positive vorticity advection and favorable forcing aloft will combine with a series of weak vorticity impulses to support several rounds of showers and thunderstorms throughout Friday and Friday night. Given the repeated periods of rain, conditions will quickly start to saturate and some flooding issues may begin as early as Friday afternoon. Temperatures will also be cooler due to the increase in cloud cover and rainfall with highs generally staying in the mid 80s on Friday and lows dipping into the low 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 506 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 VFR through this cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 1018 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Easterly winds around 15 knots will ease west of the Miss River early this morning. Winds over all coastal waters will become light and sometimes variable through Monday. Winds will become predominantly SE by Tuesday at around 10 knots the rise further into mid next week to around 15 to 20 knots as a cold front approaches the coast. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1280137 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:54 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 649 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect for a large portion of the area through Sunday morning. Wind Advisories continue through late morning for Worcester County in MD and the VA Eastern Shore. Storm Warnings for the coastal waters off the Eastern Shore have been down graded to Gale Warnings through late this evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Gusty conditions continue today with rain chances returning to the coast as a nor`easter strengthens this weekend. 2) Widespread moderate to major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3+ feet AGL in vulnerable areas) will continue into Saturday night or early Sunday morning at most spots, with some locations especially in the middle Bay seeing flooding persist through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 315 AM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Gusty conditions continue today with rain chances returning to the coast as a nor`easter strengthens this weekend. The nor`easter continues to strengthen offshore, tracking towards NJ later this weekend before wobbling up the New England coast early next week. Confidence is high in continued impacts locally, especially for the Eastern Shore. The position of the low, as well as the strong high pressure over the Great lakes, allows gusty winds to continue again today across the coast. Wind gusts of 35-40 mph are possible along the immediate coast (coastal MD Eastern Shore could see gusts to 45 mph briefly this morning). Wind Advisories are in effect through 11 AM this morning along the Eastern Shore coastal waters (Worcester, Accomack, and Northampton counties). At this time, these will be allowed to expire, as winds begin to decrease slightly during the day. Interior portions will also see gusts to 25- 30 mph this afternoon from well atmospheric mixing. Winds will gradually diminish tonight through Sunday, but remaining breezy with gusts to 30 mph along the coast. High pressure will then build into the area Monday, helping kick the nor`easter further offshore bringing lighter winds back. Rain chances will build back into the area from the NE as the low slides north and west. The steadier rain will likely remain on the Eastern Shore where QPF is between 0.5-1.0". For other coastal areas, the rain should stay on the lighter side closer to drizzle with QPF under 0.25". This late afternoon/evening, rain/drizzle could push as far west as the piedmont based on the latest hi-res models. Rain chances will linger mostly for the Eastern Shore on Sunday, but otherwise drying out. High pressure takes over next week leading to calmer weather. Looking at dry conditions and temperatures warming back into the 80s through the week. Above average temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are possible for some late week as ridging builds over the southeast. KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread moderate to major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3+ feet AGL in vulnerable areas) will continue into Saturday night or early Sunday morning at most spots, with some locations especially in the middle Bay seeing flooding persist through the weekend. As a Nor`easter continues to develop off the coast, winds have continued to back over the region, now closer to N to NNE. In addition, the speeds have also decreased slightly at 20-30 kt with gusts to 35 kt. However, this has done little to change the coastal flood situation with most sites still seeing anomalies of 2.5-3.5 ft above normal astronomical tide. With little change overnight through Saturday, expect similar anomalies to persist. These anomalies combined with higher astronomical tides will likely will allow for continued rounds of Moderate to Major tidal flooding across a majority of the tidal sites through Saturday. Overall, storm surge guidance has trended even higher with the 12z runs, especially inside the Chesapeake Bay, for overnight and Saturday. This is due to the models trending west and slightly stronger with the Nor`easter. This will lead to a more N-NW flow inside the bay leading to more ebbing at the mouth of the Bay, it is also possible that especially the eastern and southern shores of the Chesapeake Bay could see increased water levels with a better onshore component to the winds. The tide forecast has been raised slightly for most sides, with the most substantial changes (~0.5 ft) across aforementioned areas. Coastal Flood Warnings were extended out another cycle, Saturday night-Sunday morning, and additional extensions are likely, especially across the middle Bay. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 650 AM EDT Saturday... Deepening low pressure offshore and high pressure well to the north will result in continued gusty N and NW winds through the period. VFR conditions are currently across all terminals early this morning, but MVFR CIGs will move back into the region, especially along the coast, from the NE to SW as the low pressure drifts back toward the NJ coast. CIGs will begin to degrade by 12z at SBY. IFR CIGs are possible this afternoon at SBY, but confidence is low at this time, so have included 1000 ft CIGs this afternoon. Additionally, mainly light rainfall is expected for the majority of the day at SBY, with lower chances elsewhere. ORF and PHF will see MVFR CIGs build in by late morning/early afternoon. RIC/ECG may be on the cusp of the MVFR CIGs, but confidence is not high enough to include at this time. Outlook: Intermittent flight restrictions from low CIGs may impact coastal terminals, especially SBY, into early Sunday. Gusty conditions are expected at the coast through at least tonight. Flight conditions improve, even near the coast, late Sunday and especially next week. && .MARINE... As of 315 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - A developing Nor`easter will lift north offshore of the Mid- Atlantic coast toward Long Island through the weekend. Storm Warnings have been expanded to include nearshore zones north of Parramore Island through tonight and offshore zones north of Cape Charles through Saturday morning. - Dangerous marine conditions continue through Saturday night and into Sunday, with the worst conditions anticipated tonight into Saturday morning. Latest analysis reveals a deepening ~990 mb Nor`easter centered ~150 miles off the Delmarva coast. Meanwhile, ~1028 mb high pressure is situated over the upper Great Lakes region, extending NE into SE QC. Dangerous boating conditions continue over the local waters, with the latest obs showing NNW winds 15-25 kt over the E VA rivers and Currituck Sound, and 20-30 kt, gusting to 35-40 kt over the bay, with 25 to 35 kt winds gusting to 45 to 55 kt over the coastal waters, highest per GOES DMW and Scatterometer data over the northern offshore waters just south of the deepening nor`easter. Seas 11-18 ft, highest south of Cape Charles and offshore. Only change is to add Small Craft Advisory for Currituck Sound through tonight. Otherwise, Storm Warnings continue until around sunrise for the nearshore coastal waters north of Parramore Island, and until late morning for the offshore waters north of Cape Charles. Gale Warnings continue for much of the rest of the waters through late this evening, with Small Craft Advisories in effect for the E VA rivers. Winds gradually diminish later today and tonight, as the low slowly weakens and meanders toward the NJ coast into Sunday/Sunday night. the system is then forecast to exit slowly to the NNE Monday into Monday night. Wind direction gradually shift NNW through tonight. Winds fall below Gale thresholds for all locations this evening/ early Sunday morning and expect Gales will be replaced by SCA, which should then continue into early Monday. Calmer conditions are then in the forecast through the middle of next week, as high pressure rebuilds from the west. COASTAL HAZARDS: Finally, the long-duration NNE winds continue to result in dangerously high seas, currently in the 10-15 ft range. Dangerous surf conditions will continue through the rest of the weekend, with a high rip current risk persisting into the weekend due to elevated seas even as winds become NNW. Localized beach and dune erosion remain possible. High Surf Advisories have been extended through Saturday night. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Sunday for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Warning until noon EDT Sunday for MDZ024-025. Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ025. NC...Coastal Flood Warning until noon EDT Sunday for NCZ102. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Warning until noon EDT Sunday for VAZ083-084-099- 100-518-520-523. Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT Sunday for VAZ075>078-081- 082-085-086-089-090-521-522-524-528. Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT Sunday for VAZ097-098-525- 529>531. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630>632-634- 650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ639. Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ654-656-658-684- 686-688. Storm Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ680-682. && $$ |
| #1280136 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 631 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Adjustments have been made to the marine headlines based on the latest trends in marine observations. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Large and slow moving Nor`easter continues to bring hazardous coastal and marine conditions to the area, gradually improving over this weekend. 2) High pressure builds in next week, bringing warm temperatures and lighter winds. MARINE: Moderate to strong winds and dangerous seas persist through this afternoon, with dangerous seas potentially lasting until Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...As of early this morning, a deepening Nor`easter was located about 230 miles NE of Cape Hatteras, and was moving slowly north. Guidance is now well-clustered with the track of this low as it continues north towards Southern New England. However, the northward progress should be slowed by an upper ridge sliding east from the Great Lakes to Northern New England over the weekend. This should steer the Nor`easter west towards the Northern Mid-Atlantic later tonight into Sunday. Eventually, the system will weaken and lift NE away from the U.S. East Coast. On the southern periphery of the Nor`easter, a moderate to strong gradient is forecast to remain in place across northeast NC and the northern OBX. Despite a bit of a lull in the strongest winds this morning, the wind forecast was left mostly unchanged as guidance suggests the gradient may restrengthen as the Nor`easter potentially moves a bit west of due north along the coast. It`s possible that the strongest gradient, and strongest winds, will remain just east of the coast, and adjustments down with the wind forecast may be needed. It should be noted that the gradient is expected to be significantly weaker across the southwestern half of our forecast area, with noticeably wind differences from NE to SW. That said, a dry and well-mixed airmass today should support one more day of gusty winds of 20-25mph inland away from the coast. The dry airmass should keep most of ENC dry today. The one exception, though, is along the NRN OBX. There, increasing CAA on the western periphery of the Nor`easter should lead to steep low- level lapse rates along the length of the Chesapeake Bay (where water temps are still in the 70s). This plus a favorable trajectory down the length of the Bay should support a band of showers extending southeast from eastern VA into NE NC. Despite winds gradually decreasing today, coastal impacts will continue to plague portions of the OBX. Buoys currently show wave heights of 10-13ft at 12-13 seconds, and this should continue to lead to wave runup and ocean overwash impacts along vulnerable stretches of the OBX, with a continued focus on Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. Portions of NC-12 remain closed on both Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. Adding to the impact of the wave runup and overwash is the already elevated astronomical tides ongoing through the weekend. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect until this evening for those areas. For soundside locations, water levels remain the most elevated for areas favored in north or northwest flow, including areas around Ocracoke and Hatteras Villages. Various coastal flood headlines remain in effect through the morning high tide, but may need to be extended in time depending on how the winds and seas evolve today. In addition, as the Nor`easter pulls away from the area, a more dominant westerly wind is expected to develop by Sunday, and this may lead to a risk of minor coastal flooding around Roanoke Island. KEY MESSAGE 2...By mid to late next week, a notable upper level ridge is forecast to build over the Southeastern U.S. This combined with rising low-level thicknesses in southerly flow should support warming temperatures, including the potential for a period of above normal highs once again. Moisture is forecast to be slower to return, and this should support mostly dry conditions for much of the upcoming week. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours. A dry northerly flow should support VFR conditions at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours. However, afternoon heating plus residual low-level moisture may allow an area of SCT to BKN VFR-level cumulus (4-6k ft) to develop during the day today. East of the TAF sites, an area of MVFR CIGs is expected to develop along with a band of SHRA on Saturday. This will impact OBX runways/airstrips. Deep mixing plus modest northerly winds aloft should lead to a period of gusty NW winds, with gusts as high as 20-25kt. Stronger gusts (25-35kt) are expected for OBX runways. Outlook: Winds will continue to gradually decrease over the remainder of the weekend as the Nor`easter pulls slowly away from the area and weakens. A dry airmass in the wake of that system should allow VFR conditions to prevail into at least the first half of next week. && .MARINE... As of early this morning, a deepening Nor`easter was located about 230 miles NE of Cape Hatteras, and was moving slowly north. On the southern periphery of this low, northerly winds of 20-35kt are ongoing across the central and northern waters. Further south, a weaker gradient has allowed winds to lay down to 15-25kt. Despite good model agreement with the track of the Nor`easter, there remains some uncertainty with how long the gale-force winds will last north of Cape Hatteras. The latest forecast may be a bit generous compared to recent obs. However, there is still some wiggle room over the next 12 hours or so with the track of the low, therefore the forecast, and marine headlines, were left mostly unchanged. It is worth noting that a bit of a lull in the winds this morning isn`t a guarantee that stronger winds won`t return for a time today. A more substantial laying down of the winds is expected by tonight or Sunday as the Nor`easter finally lifts further away from the local area. For the coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras, dangerous seas of 12- 18ft will continue through today, then finally begin to lay down to 10ft, or less, by tonight. South of Cape Hatteras, the most dangerous seas are expected for the outer coastal waters, while the waters closer to shore will have elevated seas, but not as high as further out. Outlook: Boating conditions are expected to substantially improve as we move into next week. Northerly flow is forecast to flip back to southerly flow by the middle of the week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196- 203>205. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ203. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-205. Coastal Flood Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ204- 205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 230. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135- 231. Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ150-182. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ156-158. Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for AMZ180. && $$ |
| #1280135 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:39 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 532 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot weather with low humidity today. A gradual increase in humidity begins late this evening. - Unsettled weather next week with increasing rain and storm chances, peaking from Wednesday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1147 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 In the near term, a comfortable night is unfolding as surface dew points remain in the 50s and low 70s while temperatures drop into the mid 60s and low 70s. So, enjoy the dry and comfortable early Saturday morning. Temperatures will gradually warm up through the day with highs reaching the low to mid 90s this afternoon. It will be hot but still with low humidity. Forecast soundings show a gradual increase in low to mid level moisture starting later today and continuing through the remainder of the forecast period. With a little more moisture in the area, expect a hot and slightly more humid Sunday with isolated diurnally- driven showers and storms. This weather pattern looks to remain at least through Tuesday with isolated to scattered activity mainly in the afternoon with the seabreeze. After Tuesday, the weather pattern changes with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances, peaking from Wednesday into the weekend. We`ll be receiving moisture from different areas. Gulf moisture will kick- in as persistent southeasterly flow continues. At the same time deep Pacific moisture will filter over the Plains as a deepening upper- lvl trough moves over the western CONUS and merges with the remnants of Polo. Confidence in a wetter pattern toward mid-late week continues to increase; however, confidence on timing, rain coverage, and rainfall amounts remains still low. Latest Global model runs suggest an uptick in moisture with PWATs at or above the climatological maximum for late September. However, most of them now keep the FROPA to our west. The GFS and its ensemble members continue to be the most progressive and aggressive solutions for our region, bringing periods of moderate to heavy rain through the end of the week. The ECMWF continues to be less aggressive and keeps the bulk of the QPF to our north/west. Overall, the probability of getting rainfall amounts greater than 1 inch is around 20 to 35 % for Wednesday, 50 to 60% for Thursday, and 30 to 40% on Friday. The probability of rain greater than 2 inches is slightly lower: 20-25% Wed, 30-45% Thurs, and 15 to 25% Fri. Given the spread in models regarding the evolution of this trough, and the eventual QPF, the main takeaway at the moment is to focus on impacts and not total amounts. Prepare for periods of showers and thunderstorms, mainly Wednesday into Friday. Finer details will be provided as confidence increases. JM && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 528 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 VFR conditions continue today and tonight for the vast majority of the area. Exception, albeit brief, would be around some of the coastal terminals who might see an isolated shower and MVFR ceiling at times this morning. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1147 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Benign marine conditions will continue with light onshore winds and seas at least through early next week. Northeast to east winds will gradually shift to the southeast this weekend and will persist through most of the upcoming week. An isolated shower or storm will be possible through the weekend, but minimal impact is anticipated. Unsettled weather returns to the Upper TX coast heading into mid- week. Look for periods of rain and thunderstorms, along with elevated winds and building seas, likely reaching Advisory levels. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 94 70 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 92 74 94 75 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 88 81 89 82 / 20 10 20 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1280134 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:00 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 552 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 552 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 - Northeast winds bring another taste of Fall to the area throughout the weekend. - Elevated fire concerns are possible due to low humidity on Saturday and Sunday afternoons. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 207 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Enjoy this weekend as it will feel very comfortable outside through at least Sunday area-wide, and potentially through most of Monday as well for areas away from the Gulf Coast. Daytime highs will generally be in the 80s with overnight lows generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s. High pressure looks to continue building across the southeast, reinforced by an area of low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast this weekend. This aforementioned large area of low pressure looks to whip PV south via shortwaves rounding the base of the cutoff low. This will allow for some forcing for ascent across our northeast Gulf waters on Monday with PWATs that push up into the 1.5 to 2 inch range offshore, at the far tail end of influence from this system. Rain chances, generally 25% or less, will remain confined to our coastal and marine zones and into the southeast FL Big Bend. Inland areas will see rain chances be near nil as dry northwesterly air pushes southeast. By Tuesday this system will have moved into the Northeast/New England and back to near nil rain chances we go area- wide as that forcing for ascent departs. Late Tuesday, surface high pressure looks to move off the Atlantic Coast allowing winds to clock around to being south-southeasterly through the rest of the long term period. This will gradually increase our rain chances mid-week through next weekend. This unfortunately means temperatures and dew points will be on the rise for the second half of the week, with daytime highs back in the 90s and overnight lows back in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 552 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with mostly clear skies and light winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 207 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Light to moderate northerly breezes continue today before turning more westerly Sunday as high pressure settles over the northeastern Gulf. Wave heights will generally be 2 feet or less through the weekend and into the first half of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 207 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Relative humidity values will drop to near critical levels, or 25% to 30%, this afternoon. Transport and surface winds out of the northeast today turns more northwesterly on Sunday at around 10 mph both afternoons. This may result in elevated fire danger this weekend, especially in areas that have been dry recently. Moisture slowly works back into the region beginning Tuesday afternoon with rain chances returning Wednesday and Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 207 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Generally, less than an inch of rainfall is expected through the middle of next week. There are currently no riverine flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 85 62 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 85 69 87 67 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 86 61 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 85 59 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 83 58 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 83 59 86 67 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 83 69 85 71 / 0 0 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1280132 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:30 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 515 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Saltwater flooding of low elevation streets and lots is likely through next week due to a potent King Tide. Don`t drive through flooded roadways. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges. - A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Lower to Middle Keys, and a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the Upper Keys. Coastal Flood Advisories will likely be required for all of the Keys by Monday night. - Increasing northeasterly swell from a Nor`easter off the East Coast will produce 4 to 5 foot seas through the weekend in the eastern Straits of Florida off the Upper Keys. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 502 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 A significantly drier airmass aloft continues to expand across the Florida Keys early this AM. Based on water vapor imagery, the cold front has progressed slightly farther south than expected, extending south-southwest from the parent nor`easter spinning off the Mid- Atlantic/New England coast, through the Bahamas and across to even slightly south of Cuba. Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will continue across the Keys and surrounding waters this morning, but will become light to gentle by this afternoon. The nor`easter will remain trapped between broad Atlantic ridging and persistent ridging over the Central CONUS before eventually breaking down and ejecting towards the northern Atlantic during the Monday to Wednesday timeframe. In the meantime, deep west-northwesterly flow will continue across the Keys this weekend as embedded shortwaves rotate around the coastal low and maintain some measure of cyclonic flow over the eastern Gulf. We`re already seeing the effects of this with isolated showers ongoing near the Lower Keys and in the Straits of Florida despite a deep layer of dry air measured on our 00Z RAOB above 900mb. MIMIC-TPW imagery shows even drier air surging south in the eastern Gulf. Any isolated development will remain rather benign today and tomorrow, and most of the day will feature mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Some locations along the Island Chain will see dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees on Sunday which will drop humidity values down into the 50-60% range. Our primary concern over the next couple of days and potentially into next week will be saltwater flooding of low-lying areas along the Keys caused by a peak in astronomical tides compounded by a backed up Gulf Stream due to the strong nor`easter and associated gale force winds along the East Coast. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the Upper Keys while a Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Lower to Middle Keys through at least this afternoon, but extensions are likely. Eventual upgrades may be needed for the Lower/Middle Keys early next week. Speaking of next week, it certainly looks as though our below-normal rain chances will be short-lived. On Monday, the lower-levels of the atmosphere will become influenced by Atlantic ridging which will extend across the Keys and promote a switch back to low-level southerly flow. Meanwhile to our north, the continental ridge is progged to retrograde westward just enough to allow the upper-level trough along the coast to deepen across the Southeast and into the Gulf. By Monday night, we`ll see a quick resurgence in moisture content with increasing rain and thunder chances. The mid to upper- level trough will continue to provide forcing across the area through at least Wednesday, even as the nor`easter begins to lift away, leaving behind residual upper-level troughing across the Florida Peninsula to as far south as the Yucatan. Global models indicate that piece of left behind upper-level energy may begin to deepen near the Yucatan by the middle to end of the week, potentially sustaining an active period across the Florida Keys through the end of the forecast period. Unfortunately, a wet forecast on top of King Tides may exacerbate the flooding issues, but the details will be ironed out as we get closer. && .MARINE... Issued at 502 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Isolated showers are currently tracking towards the south- southeast around 5 to 10 knots in the Gulfside waters near the Lower Keys and in the Straits of Florida. This activity will gradually wane over the next few hours. Marine observations are currently reporting gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes. Breezes will become light to gentle through the morning. From synopsis, an early season cold front will remain draped across the distant Straits of Florida for much of the weekend, supporting light to gentle northerlies. A Nor`easter off the Eastern Seaboard will support a northeasterly swell with large periods in the eastern marine zones through Sunday. The front will push back northward on Monday through the marine zones. Winds will then clock back around to the southeast to south for early next week, also accompanied by increasing rain and thunder chances. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 122 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 VCSH will continue near KEYW for another few hours with occasional bouts of MVFR ceilings possible at both terminals. In all, VFR conditions will prevail for much of this TAF cycle due to a large amount of dry air present across the area in the wake of a front. A secondary trough axis rotating south across the eastern Gulf will occasionally produce spotty showers, but coverage will be limited. Expect persistent northerly sfc winds around 5 to 10 knots. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1280131 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 343 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...New MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 336 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 - A cooler and drier air mass remains present into the beginning of next week bringing below normal low temperatures and lower humidity. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 We had our first real taste of fall Friday with largely below normal temperatures and very comfortable dewpoints in the low 60s. High temperatures will slowly increase to at/above normal by Sunday with largely upper 80s and low 90s expected through the remainder of the forecast period. Thanks to such a dry air mass, the afternoon dewpoints are decent in the low 60s Saturday and further drop for interior areas into the 50s through Tuesday. This keeps humidity quite low and it will feel much more comfortable than typical when temperatures are near 90. Even though high temperatures will be above normal, low temperatures will generally be slightly below normal with upper 60s along the coast and low 60s inland, potentially even some upper 50s for our far northern counties. The area continues to have dry conditions with near zero pops through at least the beginning of next week. PWATs are well below normal around 1.1 inches. PWATs stay below normal leading into next Wednesday before more appreciable moisture return puts the area at/above normal to end the week in conjunction with decreasing subsidence as a trough moves in from the west. This change increases precipitation chances with scattered to locally numerous storms to end the week. ...BEACH FORECAST... For the beaches in southern Alabama and the northwest Florida Panhandle, the rip current risk drops to LOW for Saturday into mid next week and surf heights remain around 1 foot. SS/97 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 VFR conditions with light winds for most of the forecast. /16 && .MARINE... Issued at 336 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Light to at time moderate northeasterly flow will transition to a light onshore today, then become more variable into the coming week. A more persistent onshore flow returns by mid week as a surface ridge builds west over the Southeast. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 87 68 90 63 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 86 70 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 84 72 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 86 63 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 87 64 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 86 62 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 87 64 89 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1280123 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:30 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 327 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Adjustments have been made to the marine headlines based on the latest trends in marine observations. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Large and slow moving Nor`easter continues to bring hazardous coastal and marine conditions to the area, gradually improving over this weekend. 2) High pressure builds in next week, bringing warm temperatures and lighter winds. MARINE: Moderate to strong winds and dangerous seas persist through this afternoon, with dangerous seas potentially lasting until Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...As of early this morning, a deepening Nor`easter was located about 230 miles NE of Cape Hatteras, and was moving slowly north. Guidance is now well-clustered with the track of this low as it continues north towards Southern New England. However, the northward progress should be slowed by an upper ridge sliding east from the Great Lakes to Northern New England over the weekend. This should steer the Nor`easter west towards the Northern Mid-Atlantic later tonight into Sunday. Eventually, the system will weaken and lift NE away from the U.S. East Coast. On the southern periphery of the Nor`easter, a moderate to strong gradient is forecast to remain in place across northeast NC and the northern OBX. Despite a bit of a lull in the strongest winds this morning, the wind forecast was left mostly unchanged as guidance suggests the gradient may restrengthen as the Nor`easter potentially moves a bit west of due north along the coast. It`s possible that the strongest gradient, and strongest winds, will remain just east of the coast, and adjustments down with the wind forecast may be needed. It should be noted that the gradient is expected to be significantly weaker across the southwestern half of our forecast area, with noticeably wind differences from NE to SW. That said, a dry and well-mixed airmass today should support one more day of gusty winds of 20-25mph inland away from the coast. The dry airmass should keep most of ENC dry today. The one exception, though, is along the NRN OBX. There, increasing CAA on the western periphery of the Nor`easter should lead to steep low- level lapse rates along the length of the Chesapeake Bay (where water temps are still in the 70s). This plus a favorable trajectory down the length of the Bay should support a band of showers extending southeast from eastern VA into NE NC. Despite winds gradually decreasing today, coastal impacts will continue to plague portions of the OBX. Buoys currently show wave heights of 10-13ft at 12-13 seconds, and this should continue to lead to wave runup and ocean overwash impacts along vulnerable stretches of the OBX, with a continued focus on Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. Portions of NC-12 remain closed on both Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. Adding to the impact of the wave runup and overwash is the already elevated astronomical tides ongoing through the weekend. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect until this evening for those areas. For soundside locations, water levels remain the most elevated for areas favored in north or northwest flow, including areas around Ocracoke and Hatteras Villages. Various coastal flood headlines remain in effect through the morning high tide, but may need to be extended in time depending on how the winds and seas evolve today. In addition, as the Nor`easter pulls away from the area, a more dominant westerly wind is expected to develop by Sunday, and this may lead to a risk of minor coastal flooding around Roanoke Island. KEY MESSAGE 2...By mid to late next week, a notable upper level ridge is forecast to build over the Southeastern U.S. This combined with rising low-level thicknesses in southerly flow should support warming temperatures, including the potential for a period of above normal highs once again. Moisture is forecast to be slower to return, and this should support mostly dry conditions for much of the upcoming week. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours. A dry northerly flow should support VFR conditions at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours. However, afternoon heating plus residual low- level moisture may allow an area of SCT to BKN VFR-level cumulus (4-6k ft) to develop during the day Saturday. East of the TAF sites, an area of MVFR CIGs is expected to develop along with a band of SHRA on Saturday. This will impact OBX runways/airstrips. Deep mixing plus modest northerly winds aloft should lead to a period of gusty NW winds, with gusts as high as 20-25kt. Stronger gusts (25-35kt) are expected for OBX runways. Outlook: Winds will continue to gradually decrease over the remainder of the weekend as the Nor`easter pulls slowly away from the area and weakens. A dry airmass in the wake of that system should allow VFR conditions to prevail into at least the first half of next week. && .MARINE... As of early this morning, a deepening Nor`easter was located about 230 miles NE of Cape Hatteras, and was moving slowly north. On the southern periphery of this low, northerly winds of 20-35kt are ongoing across the central and northern waters. Further south, a weaker gradient has allowed winds to lay down to 15-25kt. Despite good model agreement with the track of the Nor`easter, there remains some uncertainty with how long the gale-force winds will last north of Cape Hatteras. The latest forecast may be a bit generous compared to recent obs. However, there is still some wiggle room over the next 12 hours or so with the track of the low, therefore the forecast, and marine headlines, were left mostly unchanged. It is worth noting that a bit of a lull in the winds this morning isn`t a guarantee that stronger winds won`t return for a time today. A more substantial laying down of the winds is expected by tonight or Sunday as the Nor`easter finally lifts further away from the local area. For the coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras, dangerous seas of 12- 18ft will continue through today, then finally begin to lay down to 10ft, or less, by tonight. South of Cape Hatteras, the most dangerous seas are expected for the outer coastal waters, while the waters closer to shore will have elevated seas, but not as high as further out. Outlook: Boating conditions are expected to substantially improve as we move into next week. Northerly flow is forecast to flip back to southerly flow by the middle of the week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ196-203>205. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ203. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-205. Coastal Flood Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ204- 205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 230. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135- 231. Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ150-182. Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ152. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for AMZ154. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ156-158. Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for AMZ180. && $$ |
| #1280122 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:27 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 312 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 - Dangerous beach and marine conditions today will persist into at least Sunday with elevated wave heights, a high risk of rip currents, and rough, pounding surf continuing. Entering the ocean is not advised! - A taste of fall is in store for the rest of the week and into early next week, as drier and somewhat cooler conditions gradually filter down the peninsula. - Rain and storm chances return to the forecast from Tuesday onward as moisture begins to increase once again across the area, with a slight trend upward in temperatures towards the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Today-Tonight... Upper level cutoff low paired with a nor`easter off the North Carolina coast will slowly move northward through the day. At the surface, broad high pressure will build over the Florida peninsula. Locally, breezy northerly winds will persist today, with speeds around 10 mph across the interior, and 10-15 mph along the coast with gusts to around 20 mph possible at times. Drier air will filter down across the local area today, with forecast PW values dropping to 0.8-1.3" this afternoon. This will result in little to no rain and lightning storm chances today, with the greatest potential for rain (PoP 20 percent) occurring across the southern Treasure Coast. Seasonable temperatures are forecast today, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s with heat indices in the 80s to potentially up to 90s degrees in the Treasure Coast. Overnight lows will be in the 60s. Despite the pleasant weather, beach conditions are forecast to remain poor to hazardous today. Seas will be slow to subside through the day. A high risk of rip currents remains in effect today, with breaking waves of 4 to 6 feet, resulting in rough hazardous surf persisting. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged! Sunday-Monday... The upper level cut-off low and associated nor`easter off the eastern seaboard Sunday will lift northward, eventually pushing onshore across the New England coast by Monday. At the surface, broad high pressure will continue to build over the Florida peninsula as high pressure across the western Atlantic slowly builds westward towards the Caribbean. Locally, drier air will filter across the area, with forecast PW values falling to 1.0- 1.2" areawide. This will result in little to no rain and storm chances into early next week. The highest rain chances (PoP 20 percent) will be across the southern Treasure Coast on Monday. The pressure gradient slackens over the local area, with winds becoming light and variable through the period. Seasonable temperatures are forecast into early next week. Afternoon highs are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s Sunday, and mid to upper 80s on Monday. Peak heat indices will be in the upper 80s to low 90s on Monday. Overnight lows will be in the 60s, possibly reaching 70 degrees along the coast by Monday. Poor to hazardous conditions are forecast to continue at the beaches through at least Sunday as seas are slow to subside through early next week. A high risk of rip currents is forecast through at least Sunday, though it will may continue into Monday as well. Breaking waves of 3 to 6 feet will also persist, so rough, hazardous surf will also be present. Overall, entering the ocean is strongly discouraged through at least Sunday. Tuesday-Friday... Upper level trough over the eastern seaboard early next week will push off shore by midweek. A surface high pressure in the western Atlantic will slowly shift northward through the period. Model solutions begin to diverge later into the period. The global models vary slightly in timing and location of a mid-upper level trough and associated surface low swinging across the CONUS, bringing the attendant surface front towards Florida mid to late next week. Locally, onshore winds will remain in place, although there is some uncertainty if the winds will be more easterly or southeasterly. Moisture looks to recover slightly, however exactly how much remains in questions as forecast PW values range from near to below normal to above normal depending on the model. This has resulted in decreasing confidence in forecast rain chances and heat impacts. For now, have rain chances broadly increasing from near/below normal Tuesday, becoming near/above normal Wednesday through Friday (with rain chances increasing each day). Lightning storm chances also return on Wednesday onward. Temperatures will be seasonably warm once again, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. Due to the increase in moisture, peak heat indices will be in the mid to upper 90s. && .MARINE... Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Today-Wednesday... Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue today with breezy north to northeast winds at 10-15 KT with gusts 20- 25 KT today. Winds will continue to subside, with speeds 5-10 KT Sunday. Winds then shift offshore by Monday and Tuesday, remaining light before backing onshore each afternoon with the east coast sea breeze and increasing to around 10 KT. Seas 4-8ft in the nearshore and 6-9 ft in the offshore waters today will subside to 3-7ft by Sunday. Seas will continue to subside to 3-5ft on Monday, and 2-3ft on Tuesday and Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the waters through this afternoon, before tapering off to just the Gulf Stream waters this afternoon through tonight. Poor boating conditions will remain through at least the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible across the Treasure Coast waters today, with no mentionable rain chances on Sunday. Rain chances return on Monday as moisture increases once again, with isolated to scattered showers and storms focused across the Treasure Coast waters, and scattered to numerous showers and storms forecast across all the waters on Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 145 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 VFR thru the TAF period. NNW winds around 5 kt or less inland and 5-10 kt at the coast thru 14z. N winds 5-10 kt inland (10-14 kt coastal) during the day with gusts along the coast 15-20 kt. Mainly SKC with FEW/SCT025-040 nearer to coastal sites. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 The St Johns River at Astor remains within Minor Flood Stage and is forecast to continue to rise, cresting on Sunday due to an ongoing period of northerly winds and tidal effects. River levels are forecast to then subside slightly before remaining steady through the middle of next week. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Last date the temperature was below 70 degrees (F) this year at select sites: DAB: June 8th (67 deg) LEE: June 8th (68 deg) SFB: June 8th (67 deg) MCO: June 8th (69 deg) MLB: June 8th (68 deg) VRB: June 11th (69 deg) FPR: June 11th (69 deg) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 82 63 84 66 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 85 63 85 66 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 83 68 84 69 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 84 67 84 68 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 84 64 85 66 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 84 62 85 65 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 84 63 84 66 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 84 66 84 67 / 10 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for FLZ141- 154-159-164-347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ550-552. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ555-570-572- 575. && $$ |
| #1280121 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:24 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 319 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Wind Advisories continue through late morning for Worcester County in MD and the VA Eastern Shore. No significant changes to marine headlines. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Gusty conditions continue today with rain chances returning to the coast as a nor`easter strengthens this weekend. 2) Widespread moderate to major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3+ feet AGL in vulnerable areas) will continue into Saturday night or early Sunday morning at most spots, with some locations especially in the middle Bay seeing flooding persist through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 315 AM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Gusty conditions continue today with rain chances returning to the coast as a nor`easter strengthens this weekend. The nor`easter continues to strengthen offshore, tracking towards NJ later this weekend before wobbling up the New England coast early next week. Confidence is high in continued impacts locally, especially for the Eastern Shore. The position of the low, as well as the strong high pressure over the Great lakes, allows gusty winds to continue again today across the coast. Wind gusts of 35-40 mph are possible along the immediate coast (coastal MD Eastern Shore could see gusts to 45 mph briefly this morning). Wind Advisories are in effect through 11 AM this morning along the Eastern Shore coastal waters (Worcester, Accomack, and Northampton counties). At this time, these will be allowed to expire, as winds begin to decrease slightly during the day. Interior portions will also see gusts to 25- 30 mph this afternoon from well atmospheric mixing. Winds will gradually diminish tonight through Sunday, but remaining breezy with gusts to 30 mph along the coast. High pressure will then build into the area Monday, helping kick the nor`easter further offshore bringing lighter winds back. Rain chances will build back into the area from the NE as the low slides north and west. The steadier rain will likely remain on the Eastern Shore where QPF is between 0.5-1.0". For other coastal areas, the rain should stay on the lighter side closer to drizzle with QPF under 0.25". This late afternoon/evening, rain/drizzle could push as far west as the piedmont based on the latest hi-res models. Rain chances will linger mostly for the Eastern Shore on Sunday, but otherwise drying out. High pressure takes over next week leading to calmer weather. Looking at dry conditions and temperatures warming back into the 80s through the week. Above average temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are possible for some late week as ridging builds over the southeast. KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread moderate to major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3+ feet AGL in vulnerable areas) will continue into Saturday night or early Sunday morning at most spots, with some locations especially in the middle Bay seeing flooding persist through the weekend. As a Nor`easter continues to develop off the coast, winds have continued to back over the region, now closer to N to NNE. In addition, the speeds have also decreased slightly at 20-30 kt with gusts to 35 kt. However, this has done little to change the coastal flood situation with most sites still seeing anomalies of 2.5-3.5 ft above normal astronomical tide. With little change overnight through Saturday, expect similar anomalies to persist. These anomalies combined with higher astronomical tides will likely will allow for continued rounds of Moderate to Major tidal flooding across a majority of the tidal sites through Saturday. Overall, storm surge guidance has trended even higher with the 12z runs, especially inside the Chesapeake Bay, for overnight and Saturday. This is due to the models trending west and slightly stronger with the Nor`easter. This will lead to a more N-NW flow inside the bay leading to more ebbing at the mouth of the Bay, it is also possible that especially the eastern and southern shores of the Chesapeake Bay could see increased water levels with a better onshore component to the winds. The tide forecast has been raised slightly for most sides, with the most substantial changes (~0.5 ft) across aforementioned areas. Coastal Flood Warnings were extended out another cycle, Saturday night-Sunday morning, and additional extensions are likely, especially across the middle Bay. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 135 AM EDT Saturday... Deepening low pressure offshore and high pressure well to the north will result in continued gusty N and NW winds through the period. VFR conditions are currently across all terminals early this morning, but MVFR CIGs will move back into the region, especially along the coast, from the NE to SW as the low pressure drifts back toward the NJ coast. CIGs will begin to degrade ~11z this morning at SBY. Some models want to bring this in quicker, but given the current heights and dew points in the 40s, am thinking MVFR CIGs will struggle to build in until closer to sunrise. IFR CIGs are possible this afternoon at SBY as well as some mainly light rainfall. ORF and PHF will see MVFR CIGs build in by late morning/early afternoon. RIC/ECG may be on the cusp of the MVFR CIGs, but confidence is not high enough to include at this time. Outlook: Intermittent flight restrictions from low CIGs may impact coastal terminals, especially SBY, into early Sunday. Gusty conditions are expected at the coast through at least tonight. Flight conditions improve, even near the coast, late Sunday and especially next week. && .MARINE... As of 315 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - A developing Nor`easter will lift north offshore of the Mid- Atlantic coast toward Long Island through the weekend. Storm Warnings have been expanded to include nearshore zones north of Parramore Island through tonight and offshore zones north of Cape Charles through Saturday morning. - Dangerous marine conditions continue through Saturday night and into Sunday, with the worst conditions anticipated tonight into Saturday morning. Latest analysis reveals a deepening ~990 mb Nor`easter centered ~150 miles off the Delmarva coast. Meanwhile, ~1028 mb high pressure is situated over the upper Great Lakes region, extending NE into SE QC. Dangerous boating conditions continue over the local waters, with the latest obs showing NNW winds 15-25 kt over the E VA rivers and Currituck Sound, and 20-30 kt, gusting to 35-40 kt over the bay, with 25 to 35 kt winds gusting to 45 to 55 kt over the coastal waters, highest per GOES DMW and Scatterometer data over the northern offshore waters just south of the deepening nor`easter. Seas 11-18 ft, highest south of Cape Charles and offshore. Only change is to add Small Craft Advisory for Currituck Sound through tonight. Otherwise, Storm Warnings continue until around sunrise for the nearshore coastal waters north of Parramore Island, and until late morning for the offshore waters north of Cape Charles. Gale Warnings continue for much of the rest of the waters through late this evening, with Small Craft Advisories in effect for the E VA rivers. Winds gradually diminish later today and tonight, as the low slowly weakens and meanders toward the NJ coast into Sunday/Sunday night. the system is then forecast to exit slowly to the NNE Monday into Monday night. Wind direction gradually shift NNW through tonight. Winds fall below Gale thresholds for all locations this evening/ early Sunday morning and expect Gales will be replaced by SCA, which should then continue into early Monday. Calmer conditions are then in the forecast through the middle of next week, as high pressure rebuilds from the west. COASTAL HAZARDS: Finally, the long-duration NNE winds continue to result in dangerously high seas, currently in the 10-15 ft range. Dangerous surf conditions will continue through the rest of the weekend, with a high rip current risk persisting into the weekend due to elevated seas even as winds become NNW. Localized beach and dune erosion remain possible. High Surf Advisories have been extended through Saturday night. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Warning until 3 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ024-025. Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ102. Coastal Flood Warning until 11 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ075>078-085- 086-521-522. Coastal Flood Warning until 3 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ083-084-099- 100-518-520-523. Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ081-082-089- 090-524-528. Coastal Flood Warning until 1 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ097-098-525- 529>531. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630>632-634. Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ639. Storm Warning until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650-652. Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ654-656-658-686- 688. Storm Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ680-682-684. && $$ |
| #1280119 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:15 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 303 AM AST Sat Sep 26 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 153 AM AST Sat Sep 26 2026 - Elevated flooding risk mainly during the afternoon hours across the western to northwestern sections of PR due to previous rains in those areas. - A Heat Advisory will be in effect since 9 am through 4 PM AST across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands due to clear skies overnight. Heat will remain a persistent risk throughout the weekend, with the possibility of additional heat-related products being issued. - A moderate risk of rip currents is expected to continue along northwestern to eastern beaches of Puerto Rico and northern U.S. Virgin Islands through at least Saturday night, then potentially increasing to high on Sunday into early next week. && .Short Term(Today through Monday)... Issued at 153 AM AST Sat Sep 26 2026 Overnight, mostly clear skies with quiet weather prevailed across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Brief passing showers filtered portions of eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands with accumulations staying minimal. Temperatures stayed in the 70s across urban and coastal areas, while the mountainous areas observed temperatures from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Winds remained light across the islands. The latest model guidance suggest the mid-level moisture and precipitable water values for today ranging from below normal values (25th percentile) toward near normal levels (50th percentile). Therefore, expect limited overall convection, but daytime heating, local effects, and instability associated with the nearby upper-level trough will support afternoon thunderstorms, mainly across interior and northwestern Puerto Rico. Excessive rainfall will be the primary afternoon hazard across northwestern Puerto Rico, where already saturated soils will increase the potential for urban and small- stream flooding, rapid runoff, ponding on roads, and isolated landslides or rockfalls. Excessive heat will be the other significant hazard, as mostly clear skies through the early afternoon will allow strong heating, with Heat Advisory conditions expected across susceptible areas from 9 AM through at least 4 PM today. Therefore, people are urged to stay well hydrated and take break to adequately cool if outside. On Sunday, moisture should remain near normal values as a tropical wave approaches the area while the trough remains nearby. Although the deepest tropical moisture should stay south, stronger instability and local effects could make Sunday the most active day of the short-term period, particularly during the afternoon hours. Expect, some passing showers across windward areas, followed by thunderstorms over the interior and western to northwestern Puerto Rico, while streamers could enhance rainfall downwind of El Yunque and the smaller islands. Heavy rainfall will pose an elevated flooding risk, including water accumulation on roads and poorly drained areas, urban and small- stream flooding, and quick rises along susceptible rivers. Saturated terrains will also remain vulnerable to landslides. Thunderstorms may produce frequent lightning and gusty winds. Before convection develops, sufficient sunshine will support another day of dangerous heat across the islands. By Monday, the weather pattern should transition toward a more typical late-September regime with no active tropical systems, with passing morning showers over eastern and windward areas and afternoon convection favoring interior and western Puerto Rico. The rainfall hazard should become more localized. Heat will continue to be a concern, especially where prolonged morning and early- afternoon sunshine occurs before showers develop, with elevated heat indices possible across coastal and urban areas. For that reason we urge people to monitor the forecast in order to ensure their safety and the safety of the once they care. && .Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)... Issued at 153 AM AST Sat Sep 26 2026 Drier conditions than those usually seen for the season are expected throughout the long term period. While model guidance indicates some variability, with the GFS showing more favorable conditions on Tuesday, the majority of the humidity will be centered in the low levels of the troposphere while drier conditions will dominate the low-to-upper levels (700-250hPa). An upper-level low pressure system will be located to the northeast of the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico at the beginning of the week and will shift to the southeast of the region by the end of the week eventually moving away from the CWA by the end of the forecast period. While these conditions will act to limit shower and thunderstorm activity, other factors may favor more active periods over the islands. Mid tropospheric temperatures remain favorable for the development of deep convective cells. Local effects will act as the main drivers of activity particularly over the US Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico in the mornings and the interior and northwestern Puerto Rico in the afternoons. Increasing surface winds may also favor the development of streamers from the US Virgin Islands, Vieques, Culebra and El Yunque rainforest. Conditions are expected to become more enhanced by Friday afternoon when a more humid vertical profile returns increasing the potential for the development of convection. Citizens and visitors are invited to remain weather ready and stay updated of the evolving weather conditions. The long term period might also bring a respite from the elevated heat risks and the 925 mb temperatures show a decreasing trend, suggesting more amenable conditions might prevail as the week progresses. Nonetheless, individuals are recommended to stay alert as these forecasted conditions may change. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 153 AM AST Sat Sep 26 2026 Expect VFR conds across all terminals during the forecast period. Aftn SHRA/TSRA development could result in VCTS at TJBQ/TJPS btw 26/17-23Z. Brief periods of MVFR psbl across central and western PR, particularly at TJBQ aft 26/17Z. Winds LGT/VRB to calm thru 26/13Z, from E-SE 5-10 kt with higher gusts and sea breeze variations thru 26/23Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 153 AM AST Sat Sep 26 2026 Light to moderate east to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots or less and seas generally between 2 and 4 feet will prevail today. Marine conditions will gradually deteriorate from Sunday into early next week as a northerly swell spreads across the Atlantic waters and passages while easterly winds strengthen. Seas will build to 5 to 6 feet across portions of the Atlantic waters and local passages, with occasional seas up to 8 feet possible by Monday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions may become possible across portions of the Atlantic waters and local passages early next week. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may also result in locally higher winds and seas, frequent lightning, and brief reductions in visibility. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 153 AM AST Sat Sep 26 2026 A moderate risk of rip currents will prevail today along the west- northwestern through northeastern beaches of Puerto Rico, from Mayagez to Humacao along the Atlantic coastline, as well as Culebra and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands. The moderate risk will spread to additional beaches Sunday, with a high risk of rip currents possible by Monday as a northerly swell builds, particularly along the most exposed northern beaches. Breaking waves will increase to around 5 to 6 feet during this period. Additional beach hazards include afternoon heat and isolated thunderstorms, especially across western Puerto Rico, where lightning, brief heavy rainfall, and gusty winds may occur. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...Heat Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 4 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001>013. VI...Heat Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 4 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ001-002. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1280118 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:09 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 300 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 257 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 - Very limited rain chances across the area through Monday. - Slightly cooler and less humid air will fill into the area through the weekend and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 A beautiful day on tap today thanks to a cooler, drier air mass advecting over the area. Northeasterly flow associated with a closed low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will help keep the cooler, drier air filtering through the weekend. Many this morning will wake up to temperatures in the 60s with a few northern areas in the upper 50s. Highs today will top out in the mid 80s. Lower humidity today will make for a pleasant, fall-like day. These comfortable conditions will hold through the weekend and into Monday. Early in the week, high pressure will begin to build off the east coast Florida, allowing for the flow to turn more southerly. As the flow turns, more moisture will begin to filter in, raising humidity once again. Rain chances will also begin to gradually increase each day through the end of the week. Temperatures will also increase each day, reaching back to near or slightly above normal. In other words, fall-like conditions will quickly be replaced by more summer- like conditions once again. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 257 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Mostly clear, VFR conditions are expected through the period as dry air lingers over the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 257 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Marine conditions will gradually begin to improve as winds slowly diminish through the weekend. Northeast to north winds will continue through the weekend. Early next week, high pressure off the east coast of Florida will bring more south to south east winds. Rain chances increase by mid week as moisture moves back over the area. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 257 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Dry air over the area will keep RH values low, with northern areas dropping close to critical levels. Winds will remain below 15mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 85 66 86 69 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 86 67 86 68 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 86 63 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 85 66 86 69 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 85 60 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 85 69 85 73 / 0 0 0 0 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 8 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 8 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1280117 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:06 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 256 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes in the forecast for the ongoing Nor`easter. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong/long duration Nor`easter will continue to bring damaging wind gusts, coastal flooding/beach erosion, and periods of heavy rain through the weekend. Rain and gusty winds persist into Monday. - One final day of wet and unsettled weather Tuesday before a warming and drying trend arrives next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong/long duration Nor`easter will continue to bring damaging wind gusts, coastal flooding/beach erosion, and periods of heavy rain through the weekend. Rain and gusty winds persist into Monday. What`s there to be said about the ongoing early season nor`easter that hasn`t been said already...not much! Things are playing out largely as expected so far...OPC surface analysis indicates the 996mb surface low spinning well to our south. It`s on its way north, slowly, before it makes a sharp westward turn into New Jersey tonight/tomorrow. So far we`ve already seen some minor coastal flooding on Nantucket where ~2 feet of storm surge pushed water levels into minor flood stage during the overnight high tide. The area of most concern continues to be the east coast of MA, especially south of Boston, where a several factors are at play. These include the long duration of the winds and long NE fetch, inability for water to fully recede between high tides, and the steadily rising astronomical tides. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for these east facing locations where the greatest concern will be the Saturday afternoon and overnight high tides, though we`ll be flirting with minor flooding through Sunday. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the south coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island where more sporadic minor coastal flooding is possible due to high surf just offshore and increasing swells. Winds have increased as expected, with widespread gusts of 45 to 55 mph observed from Cape Cod and the islands to coastal Rhode Island while several coastal stations have reported gusts 60+ mph. This occurred as the core of a 65kt LLJ moved overhead tonight and this continues to lift north and west (weakening) through Saturday and Sunday. That is why timing of the strongest wind gusts won`t be identical for everyone...more likely later Saturday into Sunday for northeast MA for example. Regardless, northeast winds will be relentlessly gusty through Sunday, gusting 35-45 mph for most inland locations and as high as 45-55 mph along the coast at times. The timing of this storm before trees have lost their leaves will exacerbate impacts from broken limbs and increase the potential for power outages. Strong winds will continue through Sunday but won`t be as strong as the storm weakens. Even so, even Monday will be breezy and wet. This system will dump a lot of rain over the next 72 hours thanks to the impressive moisture and dynamics...anomalous PWATs and the previously mentioned 925mb jet along with orographic lift into the higher terrain. Rainfall totals of 3-5" are expected. The best chance at these higher amounts is along the coasts and the east slopes of the CT hills, Worcester hills. Flood risk will be mitigated by the long duration of the event, though pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding are possible. KEY MESSAGE 2...One final day of wet and unsettled weather Tuesday before a warming and drying trend arrives next week. The first part of the extended forecast features lingering effects from our decaying nor`easter as the upper level low will be slow to exit. Thus, while we won`t see the wind and rain that we saw over the weekend to start the work week, it will still be wet and unsettled. By Tuesday afternoon guidance shows gradual clearing from SW to NE with even some breaks of sunshine possible later in the afternoon! By Wednesday, the upper air pattern begins to change as a ridge builds over the eastern CONUS. By Thursday, 500mb heights build to 582dm and seems to persist through at least the end of the week across ensemble guidance. Closer to the surface, 850 mb temperature anomalies soar to +6-10C above climo through late week. At the surface this translates to a period of late-summer like warmth with highs in the upper 70s to perhaps low 80s inland. Outside of Tuesday, the only chance for any precipitation arrives later Thursday into Friday as a weakening shortwave approaches the region from the west. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z TAF Update... Through 12Z...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in timing. VFR for most terminals early, then MVFR further overspreads the region from SE to NW. MVFR reaches Boston around 10z. Local IFR possible toward the Cape and Islands after 09z. Strong NE winds continue and increase in intensity, generally sustained at 10-20 kt inland and 25-35 kt toward SE MA, Cape Cod, and the Islands. Gusts to 50 kt are possible in these areas, with gusts of 35-40 kt possible over the interior. Saturday...Moderate confidence in trends and timing. MVFR at most terminals, lowering to low-end MVFR or IFR near or shortly before 12Z at Cape Cod and Island terminals, then spreading NW through the day with widespread RA. Strong NE winds continue, generally sustained at 10-20 kt inland and 25-30 kt toward SE MA, Cape Cod, and the Islands. Gusts to 50 kt are possible in these areas, with gusts of 35-40 kt possible over the interior. Saturday Night...Moderate confidence in trends and timing. MVFR possible at BDL but elsewhere expect IFR in widespread RA. Localized LIFR possible at ORH, HYA, FMH, and ACK. Strong NE winds at 15-25 kt with gusts of 30-40 kt. Localized higher gusts to 45 kt are possible near the coast. Sunday...Moderate confidence. MVFR possible at BDL but IFR likely elsewhere in widespread RA. Localized LIFR possible especially at OHR, HYA, FMH, and ACK. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends, moderate confidence in timing. VFR, becoming MVFR after 11Z. Widespread rain continues off and on through the TAF period. Persistent NNE to NE winds at 20-25 kt with gusts of 30-45 kt at times. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in trends, moderate confidence in timing. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local gusts up to 35 kt. SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through the Weekend... * Dangerous conditions for Mariners through the weekend with NE wind gusts of 45 to 60 knots and seas offshore of 15-25 feet. The strengthening early season Nor`easter will bring strong NE wind gusts of 45-60 knots and seas offshore building to between 15 and 25 feet. The strongest of the winds/seas will be early this morning and peak Sat into Sat night...but seas will remain quite high Sun into Mon along with NE wind gusts of 25 to 40 knots persisting. Storm Warnings continue for all the waters. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain showers. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for CTZ002>004. MA...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for MAZ004>006-011>014-017- 018-026. High Wind Warning until 8 AM EDT Sunday for MAZ007-015-016- 019>024. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for MAZ007-015-016- 019-022>024. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Sunday for MAZ007-015-016- 019-022>024. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for MAZ020-021. RI...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for RIZ001. High Wind Warning until 8 AM EDT Sunday for RIZ002>008. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for RIZ002- 004>008. MARINE...Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230>234-236- 250-251-254-255-280>282. Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ235-237-256-283. && $$ |
| #1280116 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:54 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 236 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 234 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 - A few isolated showers across Southeast Florida this afternoon, but mostly dry weather is expected. - Hazardous marine and beach conditions continue today and will linger into Sunday. - Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of the Atlantic coast this weekend during high tide cycles. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 234 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 In terms of wet season standards, a much quieter weather pattern has set up for this weekend. An area of low pressure off the Mid- Atlantic coast puts South Florida into a setup favoring dry air advection, with moisture profiles expected to be in the lowest 10- 25% for this time of year with dew points falling into the mid to upper 60s for most of the region. With South Florida on the periphery of the trough axis and weaker high pressure over the Deep South, we should see much drier than average conditions this weekend. PoPs are no higher than 20-30%, and this is only along the immediate east coast metro areas where NNW flow and a weak sea breeze circulation could spark a few showers in the late afternoon and early evening. Overall, drier and more tranquil weather will prevail this weekend and will give a nice break from the lengthy wet pattern we had been in. High temperatures remain primarily in the upper 80s this weekend, with areas near the lake potentially peaking in the mid 80s. Overnight lows Saturday night range from the low to mid 60s near the lake to the upper 60s and low 70s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 234 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 For early next week, the potent low pressure in the northeast US will shift more northwards as a mid-to-upper level shortwave trough pushes across the central US and deepens across the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast US regions. As this trough swings through the Florida Peninsula in the Monday to Tuesday time frame, low level flow will shift back to a southerly to southwesterly direction and result in the return of deeper tropical moisture advection. With this increasing moisture returning and the shortwave trough providing some upper level forcing for ascent, rain chances will increase back to the 60-80% range by Tuesday and into the middle of next week across South Florida. Steady moisture advection is then expected to continue through the end of the week. For the end of the week, ensembles are hinting that the subtropical high in the western Atlantic will re-build and expand further east, resulting in a return to steady easterly flow. This setup favors the highest rain chances over SW Florida (65-80%) with slightly lower chances across SE Florida (50-60%) by Friday and into next weekend. Essentially, this pattern suggests the most widespread activity will be seen over SW Florida with more scattered activity over the east coast metro areas. High temperatures will rebound slightly through the period, with highs each day reaching anywhere from the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will be a few degrees cooler through Monday night with the front clearing the area, with lows near the lake region in the low to mid 60s and the rest of the region seeing lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. By Tuesday night and beyond, overnight lows will increase back into the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 130 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 VFR is expected for the period. NNW winds this morning will shift to the NNE for the east coast terminals after 17-19Z and a few isolated and weak SHRA are possible in the area in the late afternoon and evening. At KAPF, winds shift to the further NW in the afternoon. Light winds expected to return for the overnight hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 234 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Hazardous conditions are expected to linger across the Atlantic waters this weekend. Moderate northerly winds today will weaken more on Sunday, but a northerly/northeasterly swell continues due to a strong system in the northeast. Thus, seas are still expected to reach 6-8 feet through Sunday morning. With these wave conditions, Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through Sunday morning but are expected to drop off after that as calmer conditions return heading into next week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 234 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 A high risk for rip currents continues for all Atlantic coast beaches as an increasing northerly/northeasterly swell and brisk northerly winds continue. In addition, the High Surf Advisory remains in effect for the Palm Beaches for big breaking waves of up to 7-8 feet today. Furthermore, the King Tide Cycle this weekend is expected to result in more periods of coastal flooding. Observations continue to out- perform guidance by a decent margin and thus we could see minor to moderate flooding. Based on today`s observations, there is a good chance that Palm Beach and Broward coastlines reach moderate flooding, while Miami-Dade should remain at minor. The Coastal Flood Statement has been upgraded to a Coastal Flood Advisory for Palm Beach and Broward, with the Coastal Flood Statement remaining in place for Miami-Dade. Both of these products will run through Sunday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 87 72 86 72 / 30 20 10 0 West Kendall 88 70 87 71 / 20 20 10 0 Opa-Locka 88 71 87 71 / 20 10 10 0 Homestead 88 71 87 72 / 30 20 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 87 71 86 72 / 20 10 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 87 71 86 71 / 20 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 87 70 86 70 / 20 10 10 0 West Palm Beach 86 70 86 70 / 20 0 0 0 Boca Raton 86 70 86 70 / 20 10 0 0 Naples 86 68 85 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ168-172. High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-670. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ651-671. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1280115 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:33 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 222 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the beaches and for the Cape Fear River at downtown Wilmington for this morning`s high tide. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Minor coastal flooding will remain a concern during high tides through the weekend. 2) Our cool Canadian airmass will gradually modify with dry weather continuing. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Minor coastal flooding will remain a concern during high tides through the weekend. Tide gauges at Wrightsville Beach and Myrtle Beach continue to report tidal anomalies in the +1.0 to +2.0 foot range, held there by the broad cyclonic flow around strong low pressure now centered off the Mid Atlantic coast. When this anomaly is added to astronomical tides, minor coastal flooding appears likely to occur during each high tide today through at least Sunday morning. Another round of Coastal Flood Advisories is being issued for this morning`s high tide, expected to peak around 7:30 AM at the beaches and around 10 AM on the Cape Fear River at downtown Wilmington. The tidal anomaly should begin to fade Monday and Tuesday as the low weakens, but large astronomical tides enhanced by this month`s Full Moon may make up the difference and maintain the potential for minor flooding during high tides through Tuesday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Our cool Canadian airmass will gradually modify with dry weather continuing. We`ve already had two mornings in a row with temperatures in the 50s and at least two more are coming. It certainly feels like Fall has finally reached the Carolinas! Northwesterly flow between low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast and high pressure over the Great Lakes and Ontario will maintain dry air and below normal temperatures through Sunday. As the low weakens next week we should lose the flow from Canada, replaced by west to southwest winds bearing warmer temperatures and higher dewpoints. After highs today in the upper 70s to near 80, highs by Tuesday and Wednesday should reach the upper 80s to perhaps 90 degrees across the inland Pee Dee region. Normal highs for late September are lower 80s. Rain chances appear to remain negligible through the next seven days. Mid and upper level high pressure will expand across the Southeast states for the middle and end of next week. The warm and dry conditions aloft should help keep the atmosphere too stable for significant chances of showers. This is not good news for parts of our region that did not pick up significant rain over the past couple of weeks. Lumberton`s three-week rainfall total of 0.61" is only 18 percent of normal. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions will continue over the coming 24 hours. Northwest winds could gust as high as 20 kt between 14-18z. Extended Outlook...VFR conditions should prevail through the first half of next week. There is a low chance of morning ground fog Tuesday and Wednesday as shallow Atlantic moisture returns onshore. && .MARINE... Strong low pressure centered east of the Delmarva Peninsula should slowly move toward the NJ coastline Sunday into Monday. Decreasing winds and waves this far south mean we should be able to let the Small Craft Advisory expire on-schedule at 8 AM for the North Carolina coastal waters as seas fall below 6 feet inside 20 miles of shore. Our dominant wave group should remain the 11 to 13 second northeasterly swell, decreasing in height over the next few days. Weak high pressure should build along the Southeast coast next week, providing a light to moderate west to southwest flow across the Carolinas. Dry weather should continue. A small west to southwesterly wind chop will arise at times beginning Sunday, but combined sea heights should remain well below advisory criteria. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 10 AM EDT this morning for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 10 AM EDT this morning for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ250- 252. && $$ |
| #1280114 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 212 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All Key Messages and Sections were updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Cool weather lingers this weekend. Near to slightly above normal temperatures return next week. - 2) The coastal flood risk will persist into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Cool weather will linger into the weekend. Near to slightly above normal temperatures return next week. Quiet conditions continue to prevail across the region, as current observations show calm winds and clear skies. Thus, with the aid of efficient radiational cooling, have seen temperatures fall into mid 50s inland to lower 60s along the coast. These values will continue to fall in the coming hours, with locations further inland possibly dipping into the upper 40s prior to daybreak. Temperatures moderate fairly quickly this afternoon as upper level ridging builds aloft, allowing highs to warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s, which is still a touch below normal for this time of year. Otherwise, expect similar conditions to prevail this evening, as light winds and clear skies yield another chilly night. However, winds out of the south/southwest should help cap lows in the mid 50s. Looking ahead into next week, will see broad upper level ridging and sfc high pressure linger overhead, keeping conditions quiet across our area. Temperatures will continue to moderate during this time, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s likely again by mid-week. Moisture then increases Thursday into Friday along the backside of subtropical high pressure centered well offshore over the Atlantic, causing rain chances to return. Nonetheless, confidence remains too low at this time to narrow in on any specifics. KEY MESSAGE 2: The coastal flood risk will linger into early next week. Breezy north-northeasterly flow will continue across the region, as a nor`easter churns offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coastline. This combined with the recent full moon will result in minor (possibly moderate) coastal flooding with each high tide cycle this weekend (esp. for the Charleston Harbor). Charleston Harbor: Coastal flooding concerns will continue today (9/26) with the potential to reach moderate flood stage for Charleston and Colleton County with the morning high tide (~8AM). Thus, plan to issue a Coastal Flood Advisory with this forecast package, which will be in effect from 6 AM until 10 AM. Thereafter, it`s likely to see minor coastal flooding conditions through early next week for the Charleston Harbor. Fort Pulaski: Total water forecasts indicate this morning`s and Sunday morning`s high tide could peak around 9.5 ft MLLW, which will be close to yielding minor coastal flooding impacts across lower South Carolina and southeast Georgia. Given the borderline nature, will continue to monitor trends in the coming hours and issue a Coastal Flood Advisory if warranted. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 06Z TAFs: VFR with light NNW winds through the TAF period. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Today through Wednesday: Seas of 4-6 ft linger across the outer Georgia waters today, where a Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect. Should see seas wane heading into the evening, allowing all headlines to expire. Otherwise, expect fairly quiet marine conditions to dominate the coastal waters through the middle of next week. Some localized sea breeze enhancements should return across Charleston Harbor and the land/sea interface by Tuesday, but wind speeds look to remain fairly tame. Rip Currents: A lingering 10-12s backswell directed towards the Georgia and Florida coasts will support a moderate rip current risk from Tybee Island south to Sapelo Island both today and Sunday. A low risk is anticipated for the lower South Carolina beaches both days. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 10 AM EDT this morning for SCZ149-150. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ384. && $$ |
| #1280113 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 212 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 207 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 - Northeast winds bring another taste of Fall to the area throughout the weekend. - Elevated fire concerns are possible due to low humidity on Saturday and Sunday afternoons. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 207 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Enjoy this weekend as it will feel very comfortable outside through at least Sunday area-wide, and potentially through most of Monday as well for areas away from the Gulf Coast. Daytime highs will generally be in the 80s with overnight lows generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s. High pressure looks to continue building across the southeast, reinforced by an area of low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast this weekend. This aforementioned large area of low pressure looks to whip PV south via shortwaves rounding the base of the cutoff low. This will allow for some forcing for ascent across our northeast Gulf waters on Monday with PWATs that push up into the 1.5 to 2 inch range offshore, at the far tail end of influence from this system. Rain chances, generally 25% or less, will remain confined to our coastal and marine zones and into the southeast FL Big Bend. Inland areas will see rain chances be near nil as dry northwesterly air pushes southeast. By Tuesday this system will have moved into the Northeast/New England and back to near nil rain chances we go area- wide as that forcing for ascent departs. Late Tuesday, surface high pressure looks to move off the Atlantic Coast allowing winds to clock around to being south-southeasterly through the rest of the long term period. This will gradually increase our rain chances mid-week through next weekend. This unfortunately means temperatures and dew points will be on the rise for the second half of the week, with daytime highs back in the 90s and overnight lows back in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 102 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with mostly clear skies and light winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 207 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Light to moderate northerly breezes continue today before turning more westerly Sunday as high pressure settles over the northeastern Gulf. Wave heights will generally be 2 feet or less through the weekend and into the first half of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 207 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Relative humidity values will drop to near critical levels, or 25% to 30%, this afternoon. Transport and surface winds out of the northeast today turns more northwesterly on Sunday at around 10 mph both afternoons. This may result in elevated fire danger this weekend, especially in areas that have been dry recently. Moisture slowly works back into the region beginning Tuesday afternoon with rain chances returning Wednesday and Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 207 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Generally, less than an inch of rainfall is expected through the middle of next week. There are currently no riverine flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 86 63 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 86 69 87 69 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 86 62 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 85 59 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 84 59 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 85 60 86 67 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 84 70 85 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1280112 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 145 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 - Dangerous beach and marine conditions will persist into at least Saturday and likely into Sunday with elevated wave heights, a high risk of rip currents, and rough, pounding surf continuing. Entering the ocean is not advised! - A taste of fall is in store for the rest of the week and into early next week, as drier and somewhat cooler conditions gradually filter down the peninsula. - Rain and storm chances return to the forecast from Tuesday onward as moisture begins to increase once again across the area, with a slight trend upward in temperatures towards the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Through Tonight...A mid-level cutoff low paired with a developing nor`easter just off the coast of the Carolinas at the surface continues to slowly drift northward, with the attendant cold front draped across the Atlantic and angled across south Florida, where it has also slowly drifted southward today. Locally, breezy northeast winds persist behind the front around 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph possible at times, highest along the coast. Isolated to scattered shower development also continues across the local Atlantic waters. A few light, isolated showers have managed to develop and push onshore along the immediate coast today and this activity is expected to continue over the next few hours with the greatest rain chances (20%) focused along the coast south of the Cape. Elsewhere, conditions across east central Florida have remained mostly dry today as a drier air mass settles across the area. The GOES19 Total PWAT viewer shows PWAT values as low as 1.1" in some spots north of the I-4 corridor. This drier air will continue to settle across the area through the evening and overnight hours, with mostly dry conditions forecast through tonight as the northerly winds slacken to around 10 mph. There remains a low chance (20%) of shower activity along the Treasure Coast overnight. Temperatures remain on track to peak in the low to mid 80s this afternoon, falling into the 60s tonight. The coolest overnight temperatures will be focused near and north of the I-4 corridor, remaining in the upper 60s along the coast. Hazardous beach conditions continue along the east central Florida coast. Breaking waves of 4 to 9 feet and a high risk of rip currents will continue through the remainder of today and into the overnight hours. A High Surf Advisory continues through at least 4 AM Sunday. While entering the ocean already is not advised at night, with these surf conditions, entering the ocean is strongly discouraged. Saturday-Monday...While the nor`easter continues northward into the Mid Atlantic and New England area this weekend and into early next week, broad surface high pressure is anticipated to slowly build across the Florida peninsula as drier air settles locally. PWATs are forecast to fall into the 1-1.2" range areawide, with little to no rain and storm chances anticipated through this weekend and into next week. Some lingering breezy northerly winds will persist into Saturday, highest along the coast, before diminishing and becoming light and variable Sunday and Monday. Temperatures are anticipated to remain seasonable through the weekend, ranging between the low to mid 80s each afternoon, warming slightly into the mid to upper 80s on Monday. Lows in the 60s persist. While the weather will be pleasant through this weekend, conditions at the beaches are anticipated to remain poor to hazardous. Persistent breezy and gusty northeast winds the last couple of days have resulted in building seas that will be slow to subside through the weekend and into early next week. A high risk of rip currents is anticipated through at least Saturday, though it will likely continue into Sunday as well. Breaking waves of 3 to 6 feet will also persist, so rough, hazardous surf will also be present. Overall, entering the ocean is strongly discouraged this weekend. Tuesday-Thursday...While the mid-level cutoff low near the Mid Atlantic and northeastern US continues lifting northward and weakens, another mid-level trough is forecast to move towards the southeast US and the Florida peninsula. The trough is expected to drift southward, reaching the eastern Gulf mid to late week. At the surface, broad high pressure across the Atlantic is anticipated to lift northward, with guidance hinting at some sort of disturbance developing in the Gulf and lifting northwestward, potentially resulting in a boundary lifting northward across the Florida peninsula. This set-up would result in increasing moisture locally, aided by initially southeast winds on Tuesday that become more onshore Wednesday onward. A return of rain and storm chances to east central Florida is forecast, with PoPs near to slightly above normal. While it is too early to pin down exact storm threats, the typical lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours all look to be reasonable hazards with activity. It is important to note that there remains some discrepancies between guidance, so shifts and adjustments to rain and storm chances are likely as models come into better agreement and the timing becomes clearer. The increasing moisture will result in slightly warmer temperatures, with highs and lows near to slightly above normal through the extended. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Hazardous boating conditions are forecast to continue tonight through Sunday thanks to persistent breezy northerly winds causing seas to build across the local Atlantic waters. Wind speeds of 15 to 25 knots are forecast through the remainder of this evening, with wind gusts up to 30 knots at times. Seas peak between 6 to 12 feet, highest across the Gulf Stream waters. By Saturday, winds slacken to around 15 knots, with seas slowly subsiding to 5 to 8 feet. Further weakening of the winds to 5 to 10 knots will finally allow seas to subside to 3 to 5 feet by the end of Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all legs of the local Atlantic waters through 11 AM on Saturday, continuing across the Gulf Stream waters through at least 4 AM Sunday. Extensions in time across portions of the Gulf Stream will likely be needed through Sunday afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated storms will remain possible through Saturday, with drier air settling areawide by Sunday. Looking into next week, boating conditions are forecast to be favorable once again. Winds are forecast to remain generally below 15 knots and seas range between 2 to 4 feet. Dry conditions persist into Monday, with rain and storm chances returning to the forecast once again from Tuesday onward as a disturbance in the Gulf leads to increasing moisture locally. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 145 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 VFR thru the TAF period. NNW winds around 5 kt or less inland and 5-10 kt at the coast thru 14z. N winds 5-10 kt inland (10-14 kt coastal) during the day with gusts along the coast 15-20 kt. Mainly SKC with FEW/SCT025-040 nearer to coastal sites. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 The St. Johns River at Astor remains within Minor Flood Stage and is forecast to continue to rise, cresting on Sunday at 2.8 feet due to an ongoing period of northerly winds and tidal effects. River levels are forecast to remain steady thereafter. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Last date the temperature was below 70 degrees (F) this year at select sites: DAB: June 8th (67 deg) LEE: June 8th (68 deg) SFB: June 8th (67 deg) MCO: June 8th (69 deg) MLB: June 8th (68 deg) VRB: June 11th (69 deg) FPR: June 11th (69 deg) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 82 63 84 66 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 85 63 85 66 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 83 68 84 69 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 84 67 84 68 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 84 64 85 66 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 84 62 85 65 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 84 63 84 66 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 84 66 84 67 / 10 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for FLZ141- 154-159-164-347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ550-552. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ555-570-572- 575. && $$ |
| #1280110 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 139 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast...But we did shift the strongest of the winds further west given the latest model track of the Nor`easter. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong/long duration Nor`easter will bring damaging wind gusts, coastal flooding/beach erosion, and periods of heavy rain this weekend. Power outages are a concern especially CT/RI as well as eastern MA. Rain/gusty winds persist into Mon. - One final day of wet and unsettled weather Tuesday before a warming and drying trend arrives next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong/long duration Nor`easter will bring damaging wind gusts, coastal flooding/beach erosion, and periods of heavy rain this weekend. Power outages are a concern especially CT/RI as well as eastern MA. Rain/gusty winds persist into Mon. The overall forecast theme remains on track...although the track has shifted a bit further to the southwest. An anomalous low pressure system for September will intensity off the mid-Atlantic coast over the next 24 hours. In fact...the NAEFS situational awareness display indicates this low pressure system is outside of the models climatology for this time of year. This has been the signal indicating that this would be an impactful/long duration Nor`easter for our region. The low will initially retrograde towards the mid- Atlantic coast before slowly moving northeast and weakening through early next week. The above supports a strong/long duration Nor`easter that we have been discussing for quite sometime now. We will break this down more below. 1) Strong to Damaging Wind Gusts... The biggest concern with this storm will be strong NE winds. This is especially true since the winds will be of both long duration and also coupled with heavy rain/fully leafed trees. This will exacerbate the risk for tree damage and power outages if this same storm were occurring a few months later. While the track over the past 24-36 hours has shifted further southwest...the gradient will still be strong enough to result in a long period of strong to damaging NE wind gusts especially CT/RI/eastern MA. The strongest of the winds will arrive across the Cape/Islands later tonight with a northeast LLJ of 55-65 knots. This northeast LLJ slowly lifts west Sat into early Sun...so the specific timing of the strongest winds will differ in time. We are thinking much of the immediate coast will see NE wind gusts of 45-60 mph especially near the south coast. A few gusts of 65-70 mph not out of the question towards Block Island closer to the core of the LLJ which will be tracking to our southwest. Whether or not places hit specific high wind criteria is less important that the long duration of the NE winds combined with the fully leafed trees. High Wind Warnings continue along the coast into early Sunday morning. Further inland...we are expecting NE wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph strongest of which may be in our CT zones closer to the Nor`easter/s circulation. Given the fully leafed trees combined with long duration of the event...the Wind Advisory continues. Overall...the wind and tree damage/power outage risk will be the biggest impact for most people. 2) Beach Erosion/Coastal Flooding... The other big issue with this storm will be the beach erosion/coastal flooding issues over multiple high tide cycles. While this will not be a storm under-going rapid bombogenesis...the persistence of these strong NE winds and high seas offshore are concerning. A storm surge on the order of 1 to 2 feet and perhaps briefly near 2.5 feet are expected through the weekend along east face ocean exposed beaches. Coastal Flood Warnings continue along the eastern MA coast including the Cape/Islands through the weekend. This along with 15 to 25 foot seas offshore will result in minor coastal flooding with a few pockets of low end moderate coastal flooding possible during each high tide cycle this weekend. The biggest issue looks to be severe beach erosion given long duration of strong NE wind gusts with the high seas offshore. Astronomical high tides are increasing through the weekend...so even as winds eventually start to slowly diminish these issues will be a concern. Given this event will impact multiple high tide cycles...the water may struggle to drain out after each high tide. Heavy rainfall may also exacerbate these issues a well. Overall...the biggest impact from this system may be in regards to beach erosion given such a long duration event. Coastal Flood Advisories continue for the south coasts of RI and MA. ALthough the NE winds will be somewhat of a mitigating factor...very large swell from the Nor`easter to our south will send large swell northward. In addition...pressure falls will also aid in water level rises. So we do expect pockets of splashover/minor coastal flooding along with minor beach erosion through the weekend. 3) Bulk of the Steady/Heavier Rain Sat afternoon through Mon... An initial area of rain near the south coast will lift northwest tonight. However...drier air to the north will result in the activity becoming more scattered and showery as it lifts near and especially northwest of the I-95 corridor. While there will be some scattered showers across...much of this time may feature dry weather with the initial rain focused towards the southeast New England coast. The heaviest rain for most locations will not be until Sat afternoon but will continue right through Mon. Rainfall totals of 2-4" are expected with localized 5-6" amounts possible. Greatest risk for these higher amounts may be near the coast, the east slopes of the CT Hills as well as the Worcester Hills/Berks given upslope NE low level flow. We opted not to issue a Flood Watch given that the rainfall is spread out over a large time period. Nonetheless...will need to keep an eye on this especially if confidence in the location of these potential 5-6" amounts increases. KEY MESSAGE 2...One final day of wet and unsettled weather Tuesday before a warming and drying trend arrives next week. The first part of the extended forecast features lingering effects from our decaying nor`easter as the upper level low will be slow to exit. Thus, while we won`t see the wind and rain that we saw over the weekend to start the work week, it will still be wet and unsettled. By Tuesday afternoon guidance shows gradual clearing from SW to NE with even some breaks of sunshine possible later in the afternoon! By Wednesday, the upper air pattern begins to change as a ridge builds over the eastern CONUS. By Thursday, 500mb heights build to 582dm and seems to persist through at least the end of the week across ensemble guidance. Closer to the surface, 850 mb temperature anomalies soar to +6-10C above climo through late week. At the surface this translates to a period of late-summer like warmth with highs in the upper 70s to perhaps low 80s inland. Outside of Tuesday, the only chance for any precipitation arrives later Thursday into Friday as a weakening shortwave approaches the region from the west. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z TAF Update... Through 12Z...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in timing. VFR for most terminals early, then MVFR further overspreads the region from SE to NW. MVFR reaches Boston around 10z. Local IFR possible toward the Cape and Islands after 09z. Strong NE winds continue and increase in intensity, generally sustained at 10-20 kt inland and 25-35 kt toward SE MA, Cape Cod, and the Islands. Gusts to 50 kt are possible in these areas, with gusts of 35-40 kt possible over the interior. Saturday...Moderate confidence in trends and timing. MVFR at most terminals, lowering to low-end MVFR or IFR near or shortly before 12Z at Cape Cod and Island terminals, then spreading NW through the day with widespread RA. Strong NE winds continue, generally sustained at 10-20 kt inland and 25-30 kt toward SE MA, Cape Cod, and the Islands. Gusts to 50 kt are possible in these areas, with gusts of 35-40 kt possible over the interior. Saturday Night...Moderate confidence in trends and timing. MVFR possible at BDL but elsewhere expect IFR in widespread RA. Localized LIFR possible at ORH, HYA, FMH, and ACK. Strong NE winds at 15-25 kt with gusts of 30-40 kt. Localized higher gusts to 45 kt are possible near the coast. Sunday...Moderate confidence. MVFR possible at BDL but IFR likely elsewhere in widespread RA. Localized LIFR possible especially at OHR, HYA, FMH, and ACK. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends, moderate confidence in timing. VFR, becoming MVFR after 11Z. Widespread rain continues off and on through the TAF period. Persistent NNE to NE winds at 20-25 kt with gusts of 30-45 kt at times. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in trends, moderate confidence in timing. Outlook /Monday through Wednesday/... Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. RA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Wednesday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight through the Weekend... * Dangerous conditions for Mariners through the weekend with NE wind gusts of 45 to 60 knots and seas offshore of 15-25 feet. The strengthening early season Nor`easter will bring strong NE wind gusts of 45-60 knots and seas offshore building to between 15 and 25 feet this weekend. The strongest of the winds/seas will begin late tonight and peak Sat into Sat night...but seas will remain quite high Sun into Mon along with NE wind gusts of 25 to 40 knots persisting. Storm Warnings continue for all the waters. Mariners should consider returning to port as soon as possible. Outlook /Monday through Wednesday/... Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for CTZ002>004. MA...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for MAZ004>006-011>014-017- 018-026. High Wind Warning until 8 AM EDT Sunday for MAZ007-015-016- 019>024. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for MAZ007-015-016- 019-022>024. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Sunday for MAZ007-015-016- 019-022>024. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for MAZ020-021. RI...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for RIZ001. High Wind Warning until 8 AM EDT Sunday for RIZ002>008. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for RIZ002- 004>008. MARINE...Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230>234-236- 250-251-254-255-280>282. Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ235-237-256-283. && $$ |
| #1280109 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 135 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Wind Advisories have been issued for Worcester County in MD and the VA Eastern Shore starting this afternoon through mid-day tomorrow. Storm Warning have been issued for the northern coastal waters. Coastal Flood Warnings were extended another high tide cycle (Saturday night into Sunday). High Surf Advisory was extended through Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Gusty conditions continue through Saturday and rain chances return to the coast as a nor`easter strengthens over the weekend. 2) Widespread moderate to major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3+ feet AGL in vulnerable areas) will continue into Saturday night or early Sunday morning at most spots, with some locations especially in the middle Bay seeing flooding persist through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 330 PM EDT Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Gusty conditions continue through Saturday and rain chances return to the coast as a nor`easter strengthens over the weekend. There is now good model consensus regarding the track of the strengthening nor`easter off the coast. Most of the guidance is holding fast to pivoting the low into New Jersey later this weekend, then the low wobbles around the Mid- Atlantic before tracking up the coast into New England early next week. Thus, confidence high for increased impacts locally, especially for the Eastern Shore. This shift has resulted in an increase in winds and rain chances tonight through Saturday, particularly for the coast. Wind gusts of 45 to 50mph will be possible along immediate coastal areas with gusts up to 30mph away from the immediate coast and up to 25mph for interior portions of the area. A Wind Advisory has been issued for Worcester, Accomack, and Northampton counties and is in effect this afternoon through mid morning Saturday. Winds will gradually diminish Saturday night through Sunday, but remaining breezy with gusts up to 30mph expected at the coast. Lighter winds finally return Monday as the storm pulls northeast and high pressure builds in. Rain will push back into coastal areas from offshore later tonight and especially tomorrow as the low slides north and west. The steadier rain will likely remain on the Eastern Shore where QPF is between 0.5-1.5". For other coastal areas, the rain should stay on the lighter side closer to drizzle with QPF under 0.25". Rain/drizzle could push as far west as the piedmont/I-95 corridor Saturday afternoon. Rain may linger in the far northeast on Sunday, but otherwise drying out. The adjusted nor`easter track also has an impact on coastal flooding, which is addressed in key message 2. High pressure takes over next week leading to calmer weather. Looking at dry conditions and temperatures warming back into the 80s through the week. KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread moderate to major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3+ feet AGL in vulnerable areas) will continue into Saturday night or early Sunday morning at most spots, with some locations especially in the middle Bay seeing flooding persist through the weekend. As a Nor`easter continues to develop off the coast, winds have continued to back over the region, now closer to N to NNE. In addition, the speeds have also decreased slightly at 20-30 kt with gusts to 35 kt. However, this has done little to change the coastal flood situation with most sites still seeing anomalies of 2.5-3.5 ft above normal astronomical tide. With little change overnight through Saturday, expect similar anomalies to persist. These anomalies combined with higher astronomical tides will likely will allow for continued rounds of Moderate to Major tidal flooding across a majority of the tidal sites through Saturday. Overall, storm surge guidance has trended even higher with the 12z runs, especially inside the Chesapeake Bay, for overnight and Saturday. This is due to the models trending west and slightly stronger with the Nor`easter. This will lead to a more N-NW flow inside the bay leading to more ebbing at the mouth of the Bay, it is also possible that especially the eastern and southern shores of the Chesapeake Bay could see increased water levels with a better onshore component to the winds. The tide forecast has been raised slightly for most sides, with the most substantial changes (~0.5 ft) across aforementioned areas. Coastal Flood Warnings were extended out another cycle, Saturday night-Sunday morning, and additional extensions are likely, especially across the middle Bay. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 135 AM EDT Saturday... Deepening low pressure offshore and high pressure well to the north will result in continued gusty N and NW winds through the period. VFR conditions are currently across all terminals early this morning, but MVFR CIGs will move back into the region, especially along the coast, from the NE to SW as the low pressure drifts back toward the NJ coast. CIGs will begin to degrade ~11z this morning at SBY. Some models want to bring this in quicker, but given the current heights and dew points in the 40s, am thinking MVFR CIGs will struggle to build in until closer to sunrise. IFR CIGs are possible this afternoon at SBY as well as some mainly light rainfall. ORF and PHF will see MVFR CIGs build in by late morning/early afternoon. RIC/ECG may be on the cusp of the MVFR CIGs, but confidence is not high enough to include at this time. Outlook: Intermittent flight restrictions from low CIGs may impact coastal terminals, especially SBY, into early Sunday. Gusty conditions are expected at the coast through at least tonight. Flight conditions improve, even near the coast, late Sunday and especially next week. && .MARINE... As of 330 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - A developing Nor`easter will lift north offshore of the Mid- Atlantic coast toward Long Island through the weekend. Storm Warnings have been expanded to include nearshore zones north of Parramore Island through tonight and offshore zones north of Cape Charles through Saturday morning. - Dangerous marine conditions continue through Saturday night and into Sunday, with the worst conditions anticipated tonight into Saturday morning. This afternoon, ~996 mb developing Nor`easter is located well off the Mid Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, ~1030 mb high pressure is situated over the Great Lakes region and over into Eastern Canada. Winds are generally out of the N and are averaging 25 to 30 knots, with gusts ~35 knots. Seas range from 8 to 12+ feet nearshore and 15 to 20+ feet offshore. Guidance remains in decent agreement tonight through Saturday, keeping the deepening low well offshore as it tracks toward Long Island. As the low tracks closer to the waters this evening/tonight, winds are expected to ramp back up. Winds increase to 30 to 40 knots with wind gusts of 50 to 55+ knots for the northern waters currently under a Storm Warning, with 20 to 30 knots and gusts of 40 to 45 knots expected elsewhere (lower in the upper rivers). The strongest wind gusts likely occur after 8 PM (00 UTC) and continue through sunrise Saturday morning. Very dangerous seas are also expected, with seas building to well over 20 feet out 60 nm, and even 10 to 15+ feet nearshore. In addition, waves in the Chesapeake Bay will build to 5 to 7+ feet (up to 10 feet at the mouth). Winds gradually diminish later Saturday as the weakening low meanders toward the NJ coast Saturday night into Sunday night, then exits slowly to the NNE Monday into Monday night. Wind direction gradually shift NNW tonight/Saturday. Winds fall below Gale thresholds for all locations either Saturday night or early Sunday, with SCA conditions likely continuing through Sunday or early Monday. Calmer conditions are currently in the forecast through the middle of next week as high pressure returns. COASTAL HAZARDS: Finally, the long-duration NNE winds continue to result in dangerously high seas, currently in the 10-15 ft range. Seas increase to around 15-20 ft late today and tonight, maintaining coastal hazards. Dangerous surf conditions will continue through the rest of the week, with a high rip current risk persisting into the weekend due to elevated seas even as winds become NNW. Localized beach and dune erosion remain possible. High Surf Advisories have been extended through Saturday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Warning until 3 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ024-025. Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ102. Coastal Flood Warning until 11 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ075>078-085- 086-521-522. Coastal Flood Warning until 3 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ083-084-099- 100-518-520-523. Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ081-082-089- 090-524-528. Coastal Flood Warning until 1 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ097-098-525- 529>531. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630>632-634. Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ639. Storm Warning until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650-652. Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ654-656-658-686- 688. Storm Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ680-682-684. && $$ |
| #1280108 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 137 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Was able to drop Gale Warning for coastal waters S of Cape Hatteras. Adjusted the end times of remaining Gales. Aviation Disco Updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Large and slow moving Nor`easter continues to bring hazardous coastal and marine conditions to the area, gradually improving over this weekend. 2) High pressure builds in next week, bringing warm temperatures and lighter winds. MARINE: Gale force winds and very dangerous seas persist through with dangerous seas potentially sticking around until Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Latest surface analysis shows a large and strengthening low pressure system lifting towards the Mid- Atlantic coast this afternoon. Overall, very little change in forecast thinking. Wrap around moisture could bring light rain at times to the Outer Banks, though best rain chances will remain offshore. Below normal temps will continue tonight into Sat. By far, the greatest impacts with this Nor`easter remain across the Outer Banks, with coastal flooding, dangerous surf, beach erosion and rip currents. Winds have trended downward and will plan to cancel the Wind Advisory, though will still remain breezy tonight. Wave runup continues to be the main concern with the threat for minor to locally moderate and significant ocean overwash along portions of Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. Seas remain at 10-16 ft about 13-14 seconds. While seas have peaked, they will be slow to subside, so expect another round of ocean overwash with this evenings high tide (around 7 pm) and likely again Sat morning (around 730 AM). Extended CF Warnings and Advisories into Sat morning. Portions of NC 12 on Hatteras and Ocracoke Island remain closed. A High Surf Advisory Remains in effect through Saturday evening. Outer Banks soundside water levels continue to recede with grad weakening northerly winds, though could still see minor inundation into tonight. Minor inundation may continue for Downeast Carteret into tonight. KEY MESSAGE 2...As the low shifts to New England and eventually weakens, sfc high and ridging aloft builds into ENC early next week. This will bring lighter winds, sunshine, and warmer weather back to the region. Of note, despite the warming weather, dewpoints are forecast to remain in the 50s into midweek next week, making for more comfortable conditions despite highs warming up into the mid to upper 80s. Slightly higher dewpoints into the 60s look to return closer to the end of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours. A dry northerly flow should support VFR conditions at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours. However, afternoon heating plus residual low- level moisture may allow an area of SCT to BKN VFR-level cumulus (4- 6k ft) to develop during the day Saturday. East of the TAF sites, an area of MVFR CIGs is expected to develop along with a band of SHRA on Saturday. This will impact OBX runways/airstrips. Deep mixing plus modest northerly winds aloft should lead to a period of gusty NW winds, with gusts as high as 20-25kt. Stronger gusts (25-35kt) are expected for OBX runways. Outlook: Winds will continue to gradually decrease over the remainder of the weekend as the Nor`easter pulls slowly away from the area and weakens. A dry airmass in the wake of that system should allow VFR conditions to prevail into at least the first half of next week. && .MARINE... Diamond Shoals just fell below 30kt gusts, and have therefore dropped the Gale warning for the coastal water zone S of CapeHatt slightly earlier and replaced with a new SCA. Remaining Gale warning end times have been adjusted based on new wind forecast blending in some of the 18Z HiRes suite. Previous Disco...Latest obs show N winds 15-25 kt near the coast, and 20-30 kt gusting 30-35 kt across the coastal waters...with seas 10-18 ft north of Hatteras and 5-13 ft south. Made some adjustments to the ongoing marine headlines. Gale Warnings continue north of Ocracoke, SCAs south of Ocracoke and the sounds. While winds and seas have peaked they will be slow to ease from south to north tonight and Sat. N-NW winds will cont Sat, strongest north of Ocracoke. Outlook: Hazardous marine conditions are forecast to last into the weekend, especially for the coastal waters as seas remain elevated. However, winds should gradually lay down over the weekend as the low pulls away and a high builds in with more benign boating conditions forecast by early next week. These benign boating conditions remain in place into midweek next week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ196-203>205. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ203. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-205. Coastal Flood Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ204- 205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 230. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135- 231. Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ150-182. Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ152. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for AMZ154. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ156-158. Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for AMZ180. Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ184. && $$ |
| #1280107 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 128 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Saltwater flooding of low elevation streets and lots is likely through next week due to a potent King Tide. Don`t drive through flooded roadways. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges. - A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Florida Keys. Coastal Flood Advisories may be required as early as Sunday night, and will likely be required for much of the Keys by Monday night. - Increasing northeasterly swell from a Nor`easter off the East Coast will allow seas to build to 4 to 5 feet through the weekend in the eastern Straits of Florida off the Upper Keys. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1029 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 A complex pattern is currently place across the Lower 48. First, a deep and highly amplified upper level trough is in place just off the Eastern Seaboard which is currently responsible for the ongoing Nor`easter at the surface just off the Mid-Atlantic states. On either side of this trough are two ridges with one over the Central North Atlantic and another complex ridge across the Southern and Central Plains. The ridge across the Plains actually has two distinct centers as seen on CIMSS products with one over SE Texas and the other over Wisconsin. The ridge over the Atlantic and the ridges across the middle of the country are basically squeeze playing and locking the trough in place off the Eastern Seaboard for now with no where for the ongoing Nor`easter to go. How does this affect our weather? At the surface, a cold front pressed through earlier this morning in association with the low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic states. Marine platforms surrounding the Island Chain are recording northwest to north breezes of 5 to 10 knots south of the Island Chain and 10 to 15 knots north of the Chain. KBYX radar is detecting some scattered showers across the nearshore and offshore waters adjacent to the Upper Keys, including the Upper Keys. MRMS data shows estimated rainfall amounts from these showers ranging anywhere from a trace to in excess of a half inch of rainfall. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower 80s and dew points are in the mid 70s. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... The 00z evening sounding shows a fairly dry profile. The exception being just above the surface between 950-925 mb where a shallow moist layer remains. The PWAT value measured was 1.32 inches which is just below the 10th percentile for the date. The wind profile shows northwest winds around 1000 ft, north-northeast around 2000 ft and then northwest to north around 3000 ft which would suggest more of a neutral advection instead of any cold air or warm air advection. If the winds were backing through the whole profile, then this would be more indicative of cold air advection, albeit, extremely weak. Based on this, no changes are expected to the ongoing forecast and since we still have some moisture in the lowest levels, a few residual showers overnight cannot be completely ruled out. && .MARINE... Issued at 1029 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, an early season cold front will remain draped across the distant Straits of Florida for much of the weekend, supporting light to gentle northerlies. A Nor`easter off the Eastern Seaboard will support a northeasterly swell with large periods in the eastern marine zones through Sunday. The front will push back northward on Monday through the marine zones. Winds will then clock back around to the southeast to south for early next week, also accompanied by increasing rain and thunder chances. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 122 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 VCSH will continue near KEYW for another few hours with occasional bouts of MVFR ceilings possible at both terminals. In all, VFR conditions will prevail for much of this TAF cycle due to a large amount of dry air present across the area in the wake of a front. A secondary trough axis rotating south across the eastern Gulf will occasionally produce spotty showers, but coverage will be limited. Expect persistent northerly sfc winds around 5 to 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 88 77 87 77 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 86 77 86 77 / 10 20 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1280106 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:39 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 133 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 130 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers today, with a few embedded storms. No impacts expected. - Hazardous marine and beach conditions are expected today through at least tonight. - Minor coastal flooding is expected along portions of the Atlantic coast today and into this weekend during high tide cycles. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 211 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 The weak frontal boundary will push through the area this morning before settling over the Florida Straits to near Cuba. Drier air will continue to advect into the mid-levels and this will continue as long as flow remains northerly, which will occur at least through Saturday due to South Florida being located on the western side of an amplifying trough and is expected to strengthen further as it progresses northeastwards. This trough is centered off the Mid- Atlantic coast and is largely cut-off, so it will not move anywhere until it either weakens or another disturbance comes and it forces it away. The likely outcome is that another shortwave trough will help to force this deep trough out of the US, but this is not expected to occur until at least Sunday. As a result, much more meager weather conditions are expected this weekend with the drier air and more stable environment. Some scattered shower activity remains possible and will focus mostly over Southeast Florida each day since this is where the highest moisture content will be, as well as where any convection is steered towards under northerly to north-northwesterly flow. Other than some meager showers and storms, no impacts are expected. High temperatures are expected in the upper 80s today and tomorrow with lows tonight in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 211 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Through Sunday, prevailing flow will be out of the north as a developing nor`easter in the New England region stalls before eventually getting pushes out. This setup will keep drier air in the atmospheric column along with inhibition of deep convection through Sunday. While some positive vorticity impulses will stream across the area and the diurnal sea breezes will still form, these alone may not be enough to overcome the inhibition created by the dry air. Nevertheless, some air parcels will be capable of lifting high enough to produce some isolated to scattered showers and possible a couple embedded storms but they will be of a weaker variety. By early next week, the system in the northeast US will shift more northwards as a mid-to-upper level shortwave trough pushes across the central US and deepens across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast US regions. As this trough swings through the Florida Peninsula, low level flow will shift back to a southerly to southwesterly direction and result in the return of tropical moisture advection. With deeper moisture arriving and this trough providing some upper level forcing for ascent, rain chances will increase back to the 60-80% range by Tuesday and into the middle of next week. Any potential impacts will be assessed later on since this is at the end of the forecast period and uncertainty is high. High temperatures each day are still expected in the upper 80s to around 90 each day for most areas. Overnight lows will be a few degrees cooler through Monday night with the front clearing the area, with lows near the lake region in the low to mid 60s and the rest of the region seeing lows in the upper 60s to low 70s through Monday night. By Tuesday night, warmer overnight lows will return. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 130 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 VFR is expected for the period. NNW winds this morning will shift to the NNE for the east coast terminals after 17-19Z and a few isolated and weak SHRA are possible in the area in the late afternoon and evening. At KAPF, winds shift to the further NW in the afternoon. Light winds expected to return for the overnight hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 211 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Hazardous conditions are expected today and into this weekend, primarily across the Atlantic waters. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will continue as a frontal boundary starts to clear the area, and northerly/northeasterly swell will also increase throughout the day today. Winds are expected to reach around 20 kts today and tonight, which will be combined with seas of 7-10 feet in the Atlantic. With these conditions, Small Craft Advisories are in effect through at least early Saturday morning. && .BEACHES... Issued at 211 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 A high risk for rip currents is in effect for all Atlantic coast beaches as an increasing northerly/northeasterly swell and brisk northerly winds occur today. In addition, a High Surf Advisory is in effect for the Palm Beaches big breaking waves of up to 7-9 feet. Furthermore, a King Tide Cycle is expected this weekend that will be enhanced by a full moon cycle. Given the recent observations and trends, we could see minor flooding as early as today, so a Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for today`s high tide cycles and this is likely to continue into this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 87 71 86 72 / 30 30 10 0 West Kendall 88 70 87 71 / 30 30 10 0 Opa-Locka 87 71 87 72 / 30 20 10 0 Homestead 88 70 87 72 / 40 30 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 87 71 86 72 / 30 20 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 87 71 86 72 / 30 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 87 70 86 71 / 20 20 10 0 West Palm Beach 86 70 86 71 / 20 10 0 0 Boca Raton 86 70 86 71 / 20 10 0 0 Naples 86 68 86 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ168-172-173. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-670. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ651-671. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1280105 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:30 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1219 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 - Above-normal temperatures continue through early next week. - Attention turns to an potential "cold" front towards the middle and latter half of next week, bringing slightly cooler temperatures and widespread low to moderate rain chances. - Minor coastal flooding possible starting early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Mid-level ridging will remain the dominant feature across South Texas through the weekend and into early next week, maintaining generally hot and mostly dry conditions. While an isolated sea breeze shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, most locations should remain dry through Monday. Attention then turns to the evolving mid-level pattern beginning Tuesday and especially Wednesday through the latter half of the week. Global guidance continues to disagree on the evolution and placement of a mid-level low as it interacts with a mid-level ridge anchored across the southeastern U.S. Despite these differences, the overall trend suggests the low will ride northward around the western and northern periphery of the ridge. This would keep the stronger forcing and much of the associated PVA north of South Texas. Even with the better mid-level forcing displaced to the north, increasing moisture and sufficient instability should support a gradual increase in convective coverage beginning Tuesday. Low to moderate rain chances Tuesday become more widespread Wednesday as moisture deepens across the region/ Moderate chances for showers and thunderstorms are the expected Thursday through Saturday. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the exact evolution and the mid-level low and ridge interaction, and relatively small changes in the track of the low could affect the amount of forcing that reaches South Texas. Therefore, confidence remains low that the cold front will make it this far south. Subsequent model runs should help refine the details. Temperatures will remain above normal through early next week. Increasing cloud cover and convective coverage during the latter half of the week may provide some moderation to daytime temperatures, though warm and humid conditions will persist. Look for afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s drop to mid-80s to 90s next weekend. Overnight lows in the low to upper 70s is expected to drop a few degrees as well. A moderate to major heat risk continues through this weekend into next Wednesday so please continue to practice heat safety. The potential for minor coastal flooding will begin to increase Sunday evening and may persist through at least the middle of next week. P-ETSS guidance indicates water levels approaching the dunes around times of high tide beginning Sunday evening, followed by a gradual upward trend through at least Wednesday. Astronomical tides will also be elevated following the full moon Saturday evening. There remain some limiting factors that lower confidence in the extent of any coastal flooding. Swell periods are currently expected to remain relatively short at less the 7 seconds, while variable winds may remain too weak to provide a substantial additional onshore push. Nevertheless, given the combination of elevated astronomical tides and the upward trend in the forecast water levels, minor coastal flooding will be possible around the times of high tide beginning Sunday evening. Trends will continue to be monitored over the next several forecast cycles. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 VFR conditions are expected to continue for most of this TAF cycle. A few hours of MVFR ceilings are possible between 10-15z at COT and MVFR to IFR visibilities at ALI from 10-14z due to localized fog. Other than that, VFR conditions are expected with light winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Generally, a gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) east to southeasterly flow is expected to persist throughout the first half of next week, with seas between 2-4 feet. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible each day, with rain chances increasing by the middle of next week as deeper moisture moves into the region. Winds may become more onshore and seas could increase somewhat ahead of an approaching cold front, though uncertainty remains regarding the timing and southward progression of the boundary. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 No significant fire weather concerns are anticipated through the period. Minimum RH values will generally remain above 30% across the western portions of South Texas, while east to southeast winds 10-15 mph may increase to 20 mph or higher around mid-week in response to an approaching disturbance. However, RH should be elevated at that time and ERC values are expected to remain near the 50th to 65th percentile with normal fuel dryness. Moisture will begin to increase Tuesday as deeper Gulf moisture spreads into South Texas. Increasing RH and gradually increasing rain chances starting Tuesday through the end of the week should further limit fire weather concerns, with moderate rain chances expected across much of the region by Thursday through Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 75 94 77 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 98 72 100 73 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 100 77 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 98 73 99 74 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 92 78 92 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 99 75 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 96 74 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 89 80 90 81 / 0 0 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1280102 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 103 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 102 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 - Northeast winds behind a cool front will bring another taste of Fall to the area through the weekend. - Elevated fire concerns are possible due to low humidity on Saturday and Sunday afternoons. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (This Evening through next Thursday) Issued at 332 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 As we are now on the backside of a cold front, we`ve been seeing notably cooler and drier conditions being advected into the area from the northeast. That northeasterly flow is being supported by a closed low that is currently spinning off the Mid-Atlantic coast, which will allow the cooler and drier air mass to continue pushing into our area throughout the weekend. With the drier air and lower humidity, temperatures will also remain cooler than what we`ve been seeing recently, making for a decent first taste of autumn. Daytime highs will generally be in the low to mid 80s, with overnight lows dropping into the 50s and 60s. Early next week, the flow will begin turning more northerly to northwesterly. By Tuesday high pressure will begin to build off the Atlantic coast of Florida, allowing winds to become more southerly. This will allow moisture from the Gulf to begin returning to the area, with dew points gradually increasing as the drier post-frontal air mass is replaced by a more humid one. As moisture begins to return, rain chances will also start to creep back up. Particularly by Thursday we will begin to see more notable PoPs. Temperatures will also gradually increase as the southerly flow develops. By the end of the week, daytime highs will sit around the upper 80s to lower 90s, while nighttime lows return to the upper 60s and lower 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 102 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with mostly clear skies and light winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 332 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Light to moderate northerly breezes continue through Saturday before turning more westerly Sunday as high pressure settles over the northeastern Gulf. Wave heights will generally be 2 feet or less through the weekend and into the first half of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 332 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Relative humidity values will drop to near critical levels, or 25% to 30%, Saturday afternoon before rebounding to between 25% to 35% Sunday and Monday. Transport and surface winds out of the northeast Saturday turns more northwesterly at around 10 mph both afternoons. This may result in elevated fire danger this weekend, especially in areas that have been dry recently. Moisture slowly works back into the region beginning Tuesday afternoon with rain chances returning Wednesday and Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 332 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Flooding is not anticipated over the next several days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 86 63 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 86 69 87 69 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 86 62 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 85 59 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 84 59 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 85 60 86 67 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 84 70 85 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1280101 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:12 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1204 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1201 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 - Hotter than normal temperatures will continue through Wednesday of next week. - Widespread moderate (level 2 out of 4) to major (level 3 out of 4) heat risk with pockets of Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk to continue across the region through Wednesday of next week. - Heat spikes are possible Tuesday/Wednesday of next week with dangerous heat indices ranging between 105-115F degrees. - A welcome weather pattern change to cooler and wetter could take shape at the start of October (sometime mid to late next week). - Our next best and more widespread chances for rain (due to a cool front and nearby shortwave trough) will come mid to late next week; currently have low-medium chances (30-40%) areawide in the Wednesday through Friday timeframe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 The heat will continue to be the main weather storyline through Wednesday of next week. However, Wednesday through Friday of next week (or as we move into the month of October), the storyline will shift towards the increasing chances for a major weather pattern change towards cooler and wetter conditions, driven by El Nino influences. We start off the forecast period tonight where most of the diurnally and sea breeze driven rain showers will continue to decrease in coverage across the region giving way to dry, warm, and humid conditions under mostly clear skies. Saturday through Monday of next week, Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will remain under the influences of a strong heat ridge, though it will begin weakening. Subsidence from the heat ridge will result in rain-free and hotter than normal temperatures. High temperatures during this time will range between the upper 90s to lower 100s. Tuesday through Wednesday of next week is when things get interesting regarding our aforementioned pattern shift. Hurricane Polo during this time is expected to make landfall over the Baja Peninsula of California, northern Mexico, and eventually northern Texas. Along with the re-curvature of Hurricane Polo, deep tropical moisture from the Eastern Pacific will stream will begin to stream into the region from the west-southwest. Meanwhile, deep tropical moisture from the Gulf of America will begin to stream into the region from the south, courtesy of a large Bermuda high to the east. The combination of deep tropical moisture streaming in from these two source regions along with the aforementioned heat dome in place (though weakening) could result in a heat spike with high heat indices Tuesday and Wednesday. Increased humidity levels with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will result in a return to dangerous peak heat indices ranging between 105-113F degrees Tuesday and Wednesday. This will trigger widespread Major (Level 3 of 4) to Extreme Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk over the region. Special Weather Statements (SPSs) and/or a Heat Advisory may be needed Tuesday and Wednesday. Additionally, during this time (Tuesday through Wednesday of next week), a southeastward advancing cool front will be traversing across Texas gradually approaching Deep South Texas. Meanwhile, there are indications of a weak shortwave trough and mid-upper energies residing near Deep South Texas and northeast Mexico. The combination of a nearby mid-upper impulses, an approaching cool front, and the influx of deep tropical moisture from both the Gulf of America and the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean will support widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning Wednesday and persisting through then end of next week and possibly longer. This is the potential pattern shift that we`ve been closely monitoring, and if realized, will bring the breakthrough rains that we`ve been waiting for so long as well as a notably cooler pattern due to the increase cloud coverage and rains. This potential pattern shift to start October has El Nino written all over it. Again, we will continue to closely monitor forecast trends in the days ahead. Currently, we`ve have low- medium (30-50%) PoPs Wednesday through Friday areawide. It`s too early to get into the exact impacts, but heavy rainfall is possible given the surge of tropical moisture. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours, with light to moderate winds and clear to partly cloudy skies. Convection appears to be more limited than in the past several days, and is excluded from the TAFs for this cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Generally, favorable marine conditions will persist through Monday of next week with low to moderate seas (wave heights between 1-3 feet) and winds. Tuesday/Wednesday and points forward, conditions will become more adverse due to the threat for showers and thunderstorms as well as increased seas. SCEC to Small Craft Advisories may be needed in the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 79 96 79 96 / 0 10 0 30 HARLINGEN 74 99 74 99 / 0 10 0 30 MCALLEN 78 102 79 102 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 102 77 102 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 89 82 89 / 0 10 0 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 94 77 94 / 0 0 0 30 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ |
| #1280100 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:12 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1208 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1207 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 - A cooler and drier air mass remains present into the beginning of next week bringing below normal low temperatures and lower humidity. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 We had our first real taste of fall Friday with largely below normal temperatures and very comfortable dewpoints in the low 60s. High temperatures will slowly increase to at/above normal by Sunday with largely upper 80s and low 90s expected through the remainder of the forecast period. Thanks to such a dry air mass, the afternoon dewpoints are decent in the low 60s Saturday and further drop for interior areas into the 50s through Tuesday. This keeps humidity quite low and it will feel much more comfortable than typical when temperatures are near 90. Even though high temperatures will be above normal, low temperatures will generally be slightly below normal with upper 60s along the coast and low 60s inland, potentially even some upper 50s for our far northern counties. The area continues to have dry conditions with near zero pops through at least the beginning of next week. PWATs are well below normal around 1.1 inches. PWATs stay below normal leading into next Wednesday before more appreciable moisture return puts the area at/above normal to end the week in conjunction with decreasing subsidence as a trough moves in from the west. This change increases precipitation chances with scattered to locally numerous storms to end the week. ...BEACH FORECAST... For the beaches in southern Alabama and the northwest Florida Panhandle, the rip current risk drops to LOW for Saturday into mid next week and surf heights remain around 1 foot. SS/97 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 VFR conditions with light winds for most of the forecast. /16 && .MARINE... Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Post frontal light to moderate northeasterly flow continues through Saturday morning followed by light onshore flow in the afternoon. A predominantly westerly to northwesterly flow then develops for Sunday and Monday before transitioning to a more persistent moderate southeasterly flow by midweek as high pressure builds to the east. JGC/98 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 68 90 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 70 89 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 72 88 68 87 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 63 87 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 64 88 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 62 86 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 64 89 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1280099 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1204 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1018 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 - Outside of a few isolated showers mainly across coastal southeastern Louisiana, quiet weather with warmer than normal temperatures will persist through the beginning of next week. - During the latter part of next week, a period of more active weather appears likely. While there is still significant uncertainty regarding the specifics, heavy rain could become a concern mainly Friday and into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 1018 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Very dry cool mornings and warm days through at least Tuesday, which is reminiscent of October type weather. Strange thing is September is normally wetter than October, and this may end up being the case this year as well, but it won`t seem like it as we move from September into October this time, but we`re getting ahead of ourselves. The dry air will hang around through Tuesday so enjoy it while its here because it will get replaced with deep moisture as we move through next week. But, the good thing is the dry air will be back at some point during October. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 1018 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Through Wednesday night the region will experience increased negative vorticity advection and subsidence as a southern stream shortwave ridge axis remains centered over the region. This increased ridging aloft will warm and dry the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, and this will lead to weak mid-level lapse rates of less than 5.0C/KM. This is reflected in the lack of instability as noted by SBCAPE values of around 500 J/KG. The end result will be a continuation of the dry and warm pattern through Wednesday night. Highs will continue to run around 5 degrees warmer than average in the lower 90s. Fortunately, the dry air in place will keep heat index values in check with most areas experiencing heat indices peaking in the upper 90s. The dry air will also allow for decent radiational cooling each night. Overnight lows should fall into the upper 60s inland and the low 70s along the coast Tuesday and Wednesday night. As we move into the latter part of the week, the ridge over the area will push to the east as a vigorous southern stream shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains and Texas. This trough will have deeper tropical moisture associated with it as the remnants of Hurricane Polo merge into the system. Fortunately, the heaviest rainfall on Thursday and Thursday night will remain west of the area, but increasing deep layer southeasterly flow in advance of the trough and a broad region of higher positive vorticity advection will support both PWATS rising back to the median for late September and increasing convective activity. Although there will some support aloft, the convection will be largely diurnal in nature with scattered showers and thunderstorms peaking in the afternoon hours over the region. By Thursday night, most of the activity will dissipate except out over the coastal waters. Temperatures will also be closer to average with highs in the upper 80s on Thursday and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s for Thursday night. A much wetter period of weather will then set up across the Gulf South for Friday and Friday night as the deep layer southerly flow pattern ushers in a surge of tropical moisture. PWATS will increase to around 1.75 inches and this will allow for continued scattered shower and thunderstorm activity to develop and for the rainfall rates to increase to 1 to 2 inches per hour. The broad region of positive vorticity advection and favorable forcing aloft will combine with a series of weak vorticity impulses to support several rounds of showers and thunderstorms throughout Friday and Friday night. Given the repeated periods of rain, conditions will quickly start to saturate and some flooding issues may begin as early as Friday afternoon. Temperatures will also be cooler due to the increase in cloud cover and rainfall with highs generally staying in the mid 80s on Friday and lows dipping into the low 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1018 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 VFR through this cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 1018 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Easterly winds around 15 knots will ease west of the Miss River early this morning. Winds over all coastal waters will become light and sometimes variable through Monday. Winds will become predominantly SE by Tuesday at around 10 knots the rise further into mid next week to around 15 to 20 knots as a cold front approaches the coast. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1280098 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:00 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1250 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - High Risk of Rip Currents Today - Minor Tidal Flooding within the St Johns River through this Evening. Elevated Tides in the St Johns River through the Weekend - Small Craft Advisories through This Evening && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights through Tonight: - High rip current risk and elevated surf heights through Tonight - Minor flooding possible the St Johns river with next couple of high tide cycles through this evening Winds are calm inland this morning while remaining light 5-10 mph from the north along the coast and St Johns river as the pressure gradient eases over the region as strong low pressure lifts further away to the north as high pressure ridging extends from the Midwest into the TN valley and southeast states. Dry northerly flow, clear skies, and winds backing to the northwest in the mid/upper levels is providing cool air advection with temperatures falling into the mid 50s across inland SE GA south and the I-10 corridor with upper 50s west of the St Johns river. But, northerly to NNE flow over the coast is keeping milder temperatures there in the low to mid 60s. High pressure over the deep south and southeast will remain the primary weather influence today with sunny skies and below normal highs in the low 80s inland and upper 70s to near 80 along the coast. Winds 5-10 mph will turn NNE this afternoon up to 10-15 mph behind the Atlantic seabreeze developing mid to late afternoon and turning winds northeasterly as the boundary moves west past I-95 mid afternoon and then past US-17 by late afternoon. Tonight, low to mid level ridging aloft will move over the area with winds decoupling inland to calm under mostly clear skies as a few high thin cirrus clouds arriving from the west. Lows will fall to the low/mid 50s west of I-95 in SE GA and west of US-17 in NE FL with upper 50s east of I-95 to near 60 at the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period (Sunday/Monday): - Minor Tidal Flooding Likely within the St. Johns River Basin. - Moderate to High Risk of Rip Currents at Atlantic Beaches - Temperatures return closer to normal values Sunday and Monday Light West to Northwest steering flow and a dry airmass in place will allow for daytime temps to return closer to seasonable values with highs in the middle 80s Sunday and into the upper 80s on Monday with no rainfall expected. Overnight lows will still remain cooler than normal with lows in the 50s/lower 60s inland both nights and mid/upper 60s closer to the Atlantic Coast. Patchy fog will be possible over inland areas around sunrise both mornings, but significant dense fog in not expected due to the dry airmass in place. Lingering minor tidal flooding will remain within the St. Johns River Basin during times of high tide, but will begin to lessen by Monday as offshore flow develops. Moderate to high risk of rip currents will linger at Atlantic beaches due to the remaining swells and rough surf despite the offshore flow. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Main Highlights This Period (Tuesday through Friday): - Return to above normal temperatures and increasing rain chances late in the week Initially dry weather conditions will be in place on Tuesday and Wednesday but above normal temperatures will return with highs into the lower 90s inland and 80s along the Atlantic Coast. Long range models suggesting a tropical wave with deeper moisture in SE flow will track NW up the Florida Peninsula and into the Eastern Gulf late in the week with increasing rainfall chances and potential thunderstorm activity on Thursday and Friday, mostly for NE FL but some moisture will push into SE GA for at least scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon/evening hours. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail during the period. Only exception will be MVFR restrictions at VQQ due to localized patchy fog. Near calm winds will become northerly 5-8 knots this afternoon and up to around 10 knots at SGJ/SSI and turn northeasterly behind the a weak Atlantic seabreeze this afternoon, winds then become calm after 00Z inland and light and variable at the coast under a few high clouds. && .MARINE... Strong low pressure to the northeast will track further away to the north through the end of the weekend as high pressure builds southward from the eastern Great Lakes into the southeast. As low pressure lifts away, the pressure gradient will ease over the region with gradually diminishing winds and seas through this evening, ending small craft conditions nearshore late this morning and offshore this evening. High pressure will shift over the region Sunday and Monday with prevailing west to southwest winds, turning southeasterly in the afternoon nearshore from the Atlantic seabreeze circulation. High pressure will shift east of the waters midweek with southerly winds, turning easterly in the afternoon over the nearshore waters from seabreeze circulation. Increasing moisture will bring a return of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the waters by midweek. Rip Currents: Breezy north northeasterly winds today, long period swells, and elevated surf heights up to 4 to 6 feet will continue high risk of rip currents today. Long period swells will persist through Sunday and continue a high risk of rip currents through the end of the weekend at Northeast FL beaches with a high end moderate risk at Southeast Georgia beaches. && .FIRE WEATHER... Over the weekend a dry airmass will push across the area and lower afternoon humidity to at least 25-30% for several inland districts Today, Sunday, and Monday. Surface and transport winds will then shift to northeasterly Today, with breezy conditions persisting at coastal locations. Fair to good daytime dispersion values are forecast area-wide. Winds will become light and turn westerly on Sunday. Warming temperatures and rising humidity levels are expected through next week with winds favoring the diurnal Atlantic sea breeze regime. Fog Potential...Significant fog formation unlikely the next several days. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides will continue rising through the start of the weekend due to the upcoming Full "Harvest" Moon later today. Breezy north to northeasterly onshore winds today will keep trapped tides within the St Johns river with water slow to drain Sunday into early next week due to lingering high astronomical tides and light winds. Water levels peaking during high tide between 1.5 - 2 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) from Friday evening`s high tides are forecast to peak again between 1.5 - 2 feet MHHW for the upcoming high tide cycles this morning and again this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 81 54 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 80 62 84 66 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 80 56 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 80 60 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 82 55 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 84 57 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ125-132- 137-225-325-633. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ452- 454. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ472-474. && $$ |
| #1280097 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:51 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1150 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot weather with low humidity today. A gradual increase in humidity begins late this evening. - Unsettled weather next week with increasing rain and storm chances, peaking from Wednesday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1147 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 In the near term, a comfortable night is unfolding as surface dew points remain in the 50s and low 70s while temperatures drop into the mid 60s and low 70s. So, enjoy the dry and comfortable early Saturday morning. Temperatures will gradually warm up through the day with highs reaching the low to mid 90s this afternoon. It will be hot but still with low humidity. Forecast soundings show a gradual increase in low to mid level moisture starting later today and continuing through the remainder of the forecast period. With a little more moisture in the area, expect a hot and slightly more humid Sunday with isolated diurnally- driven showers and storms. This weather pattern looks to remain at least through Tuesday with isolated to scattered activity mainly in the afternoon with the seabreeze. After Tuesday, the weather pattern changes with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances, peaking from Wednesday into the weekend. We`ll be receiving moisture from different areas. Gulf moisture will kick- in as persistent southeasterly flow continues. At the same time deep Pacific moisture will filter over the Plains as a deepening upper- lvl trough moves over the western CONUS and merges with the remnants of Polo. Confidence in a wetter pattern toward mid-late week continues to increase; however, confidence on timing, rain coverage, and rainfall amounts remains still low. Latest Global model runs suggest an uptick in moisture with PWATs at or above the climatological maximum for late September. However, most of them now keep the FROPA to our west. The GFS and its ensemble members continue to be the most progressive and aggressive solutions for our region, bringing periods of moderate to heavy rain through the end of the week. The ECMWF continues to be less aggressive and keeps the bulk of the QPF to our north/west. Overall, the probability of getting rainfall amounts greater than 1 inch is around 20 to 35 % for Wednesday, 50 to 60% for Thursday, and 30 to 40% on Friday. The probability of rain greater than 2 inches is slightly lower: 20-25% Wed, 30-45% Thurs, and 15 to 25% Fri. Given the spread in models regarding the evolution of this trough, and the eventual QPF, the main takeaway at the moment is to focus on impacts and not total amounts. Prepare for periods of showers and thunderstorms, mainly Wednesday into Friday. Finer details will be provided as confidence increases. JM && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 VFR conditions expected during this TAF cycle. VRB overnight winds will be NE by late morning and veer SE throughout the day. Come tomorrow evening, winds will once again be light and VRB. && .MARINE... Issued at 1147 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Benign marine conditions will continue with light onshore winds and seas at least through early next week. Northeast to east winds will gradually shift to the southeast this weekend and will persist through most of the upcoming week. An isolated shower or storm will be possible through the weekend, but minimal impact is anticipated. Unsettled weather returns to the Upper TX coast heading into mid- week. Look for periods of rain and thunderstorms, along with elevated winds and building seas, likely reaching Advisory levels. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 69 94 70 97 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 73 92 74 94 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 80 88 81 89 / 10 20 10 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1280096 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:45 AM 26.Sep.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1136 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1136 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 - A cooler and drier air mass remains present into the beginning of next week bringing below normal low temperatures and lower humidity. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 We had our first real taste of fall Friday with largely below normal temperatures and very comfortable dewpoints in the low 60s. High temperatures will slowly increase to at/above normal by Sunday with largely upper 80s and low 90s expected through the remainder of the forecast period. Thanks to such a dry air mass, the afternoon dewpoints are decent in the low 60s Saturday and further drop for interior areas into the 50s through Tuesday. This keeps humidity quite low and it will feel much more comfortable than typical when temperatures are near 90. Even though high temperatures will be above normal, low temperatures will generally be slightly below normal with upper 60s along the coast and low 60s inland, potentially even some upper 50s for our far northern counties. The area continues to have dry conditions with near zero pops through at least the beginning of next week. PWATs are well below normal around 1.1 inches. PWATs stay below normal leading into next Wednesday before more appreciable moisture return puts the area at/above normal to end the week in conjunction with decreasing subsidence as a trough moves in from the west. This change increases precipitation chances with scattered to locally numerous storms to end the week. ...BEACH FORECAST... For the beaches in southern Alabama and the northwest Florida Panhandle, the rip current risk drops to LOW for Saturday into mid next week and surf heights remain around 1 foot. SS/97 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday afternoon along with light winds. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Post frontal light to moderate northeasterly flow continues through Saturday morning followed by light onshore flow in the afternoon. A predominantly westerly to northwesterly flow then develops for Sunday and Monday before transitioning to a more persistent moderate southeasterly flow by midweek as high pressure builds to the east. JGC/98 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 84 63 87 65 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 83 68 86 69 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 82 70 84 73 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 84 60 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 84 62 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 83 60 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 83 60 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
