Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 199530 Years of Hurricanes Without the Hype - Since 1995
Atlantic is mostly quiet again for now
|
Show Area Forecast Discussion - ((Unknown Region)) Selection: |
| #1258489 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:21 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 809 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - An Extreme Cold Watch and a Freeze Watch are now in effect for much of the local area Saturday night through Sunday morning. - A Gale Watch is now in effect for all coastal waters from Saturday morning through Sunday morning. - Extremely hazardous marine conditions and a high risk of strong rip currents at area beaches this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 805 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Zonal W/SW flow aloft over the area this evening with light NE surface winds in response to broad high pressure over the SE U.S. centered to the north. Setup favors another night of efficient radiational cooling with generally few clouds expected, although E/NE boundary layer flow has increased Atlantic moisture across the peninsula with PW values a touch higher compared to 24 hours ago. Resulting overnight low temps will fall into the mid 30s to around 40 for most areas north of I-4, with some areas of frost possible across the northern Nature Coast, and areas southward in the lower to mid 40s except immediate coastal and far southern locations in the upper 40s. Mild temps expected on Friday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s under partly cloudy skies, serving as a good time to complete any preparations such as protecting plants or pipes or securing loose items ahead of a cold front expected to push across the area late Friday night through Saturday morning followed by very gusty winds and dangerous cold conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1248 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 High pressure over the region will shift eastward tonight into Friday as our next cold front approaches, leading to another cool night tonight, though it will be several degrees warmer than last night. Highs on Friday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, then the front will then move through late Friday night into Saturday, bringing some showers, though rainfall amounts will be on the low side once again. The rest of this discussion will be an edited version of the previous, as the mid shift did a great job summarizing the hazards. Bottom line, we are still forecasting a low chance for snow flurries and we are still expecting a plethora of hazards related to cold and wind. A very tight pressure gradient will develop over the eastern Gulf and Florida peninsula Saturday and Saturday night in the wake of the front...a result of the significant pressure difference between the rapidly intensifying coastal storm off the Carolina coast and the strong Canadian high pressure system over the Central Plains. As the cold front moves across the forecast area on Saturday, temperatures will likely be falling (or at best holding steady) across the region during the afternoon hours. Northwest winds of 15 to 25 MPH will develop across west central and southwest Florida with higher gusts likely, especially near the coast. There will be a number of hazards associated with this sequence of events that run from low probability of occurrence to a very high probability of occurrence. Starting with the highest likelihood of occurrence: - Extremely hazardous marine conditions will develop over the weekend and a Gale Watch has been issued for Saturday morning through Sunday morning and this will likely be upgraded in the next day or so. We are also expected a few Storm Force wind gusts across the waters. - The arctic air will usher in the coldest temperatures of the year. A Freeze Watch has been issued for Saturday night into Sunday morning and Freeze Warnings will likely be needed for much of the forecast area both Saturday night and Sunday night. A hard freeze will be possible across the nature coast Saturday night and Sunday night with lows in the lower to mid 20s each night. Temperatures across the interior are expected to be in the mid to upper 20s both nights...with lower to mid 30s near the coast and across southwest Florida. Gusty northwest winds will create wind chills Saturday night in the teens across the nature coast...with single digits possible mainly across Levy and Citrus counties. Wind chills are expected to be in the teens to lower 20s across the interior and generally in the 20s elsewhere. The wind is expected to taper off Sunday night, with wind chills generally about 3 to 5 degrees below the ambient temperature. - Temperatures will be running about 20 to 25 degrees below climatic normals Saturday night through Sunday night. Could see some record low temperatures set Saturday night/Sunday morning across the region...some low max temperature records set on Sunday...and some record low temperatures again Sunday night/Monday morning. - Along area beaches, very strong rip currents are expected to develop Saturday through Sunday. There is also a low to moderate probability of high surf. - The strong northwest winds may also create water levels along the coast from Citrus to northern Pinellas county to run 1 to 2 feet above astronomical normal tide levels Saturday and Saturday night. This is also in the low to moderate probability of occurrence. - The strong winds and CAA over the coastal waters will create a very unstable turbulent boundary layer. Residual low level moisture will likely allow an area of cold air strato-cu to develop over the eastern Gulf on Saturday and Saturday night. With these extreme conditions in place, it would be expected to see a few light showers or sprinkles to develop over the coastal waters...Gulf effect type light showers. The backside or northern extent of the cloud shield could see temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 30s Saturday evening and after midnight...which could allow the light rain showers to become light mixed snow/rain showers or snow showers/flurries. Trajectories would indicate that the clouds may advect locally onshore...with the best chance of seeing frozen precipitation from Citrus to Pinellas/Hillsborough counties. This is a low probability event...but not out of the realm of possibility. It`s common in scenarios like this that drizzle or very light rain gets reported as snow...when in fact surface temperatures don`t support that possibility. Clear skies expected Sunday and Sunday night. Temperatures on Sunday will struggle to climb into the mid to upper 40s across northern and central areas...around 50 to the lower 50s south. Another frigid night Sunday night as mentioned above with most areas away from the coast or extreme southwest Florida in the 20s. Again, record cold temperatures will be possible both Sunday and Sunday night. The airmass will begin to modify a bit on Monday, but still another cold day across the region with high temperatures from the mid 50s north to around 60 south. Subfreezing temperatures again likely Monday night/Tuesday morning across the nature coast, and around freezing to slightly above freezing across the interior...with upper 30s to lower 40s near the coast. The area of high pressure will begin to shift east of the forecast area during the middle of next week with temperatures continuing to modify...but remaining below climatic normals under mostly clear skies each day. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Dry VFR expected through the period. Light/variable to northerly winds overnight through morning, shifting to onshore late morning into the afternoon and increasing slightly to 6-10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 1248 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Winds and seas remain benign with no headlines expected through Friday. A cold front will then move across the waters Friday night into Saturday, with Gale conditions expected Saturday and Saturday night, and we could even see a few gusts to Storm Force (48 kts or greater). Winds will subside starting Sunday night, but seas will likely remain elevated for a longer period of time before they subside and so advisories may still be necessary into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1248 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 After a dry afternoon today, moisture will increase for Friday and Saturday ahead of a cold front. This next front will bring another dry air mass over the region for Sunday into early next week, with elevated Red Flag risk for Sunday as winds will be breezy. Winds then diminish for Monday with no further fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 45 70 51 58 / 0 0 30 30 FMY 48 71 52 63 / 0 10 30 50 GIF 44 73 49 58 / 0 0 20 20 SRQ 45 69 52 62 / 0 0 40 40 BKV 35 70 42 56 / 0 0 30 20 SPG 52 69 55 60 / 0 0 40 40 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco- Polk-Sumter. Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco- DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus- Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy- Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Polk-Sumter. Gulf waters...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
| #1258488 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:18 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 804 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Cold Weather Outbreak This Weekend & Early Next Week. Freeze Warning & Frost Advisory for Inland Locations Tonight. Extreme Cold Watch Saturday Night & Early Sunday Morning. Lows in the Teens Possible Inland and Lower 20s at Coastal Locations. Dangerously Cold Wind Chills in the Teens & Single Digits - Windy Coastal Conditions Saturday and Saturday Night. Gusts up to 40 MPH at NE FL Beaches. Gale Conditions Across Coastal Waters - LOW Potential for Snowfall Saturday and Saturday Evening. Probabilities for Minor Impacts (Transportation) are 5-10% Across Southeast GA && .UPDATE... Have expanded the Frost advisory this evening to include most areas west of US-17 including western Clay, Putnam, and most of Marion county including Ocala. A slight downtrend in guidance helps support colder inland lows as skies remain mostly clear tonight with calm winds away from the beaches. Freeze warning remains in effect for inland SE GA where lows will fall to the upper 20s to low 30s. Lows along the coast and St Johns river will only fall to the low 40s. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Freezing low temperatures are expected tonight for portions of inland southeast Georgia, with lows in the mid to upper 30s elsewhere inland with 40s near the coast. Calm winds overnight will allow for areas to widespread frost formation not only in the Freeze Warning area, but for portions of inland northeast Florida as well, where a Frost Advisory is now in effect. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure will shift across the FL panhandle, reaching the Atlantic by Saturday morning. Southwesterly winds develop on Friday as the Low pressure shifts across the area. This will allow for warmer air to filter into the area, which will bring daytime highs to in the 60s area-wide. By Friday night, isolated showers may be possible across SE GA and NE FL as the Low pushes over the Atlantic. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s as winds shift to become northwesterly, bringing in colder air into the area. By Saturday the surface Low will begin to deepen over the Atlantic waters leading to northwesterly winds to gradually increase locally through the afternoon hours, continuing the advection of colder air into the local area. We could see some light wintry mix during the afternoon to evening hours on Saturday as moisture moves onshore, with chances of any wintry precip mainly along the Altamaha River Basin in SE GA and coastal locations. With cold air filtering into the area will bring overnight temperatures to dip into the teens across SE GA and the lower 20s across NE FL, with a Freeze Watch in place area-wide. The elevated northwesterly winds will cause for wind chills to drop into the single digits by Sunday morning, promptly the insurance of an Extreme Cold Watch (the first for the JAX CWA). With the cold temperatures expected to last well into the afternoon hours on Sunday, both watches currently are in effect until 1pm Sunday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Dry and cold conditions on Sunday as the Low continues to shift towards the north-northeast. The elevated winds will begin to weaken by Sunday night as high pressure builds over the region. Temperatures will begin to warm through the upcoming week as highs will reach into the 50s on Monday and Tuesday and then the 60s by Wednesday and Thursday. Freeze products will likely be needed on Sunday/Monday night as sub freezing temperatures remain over the area. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... The 00Z TAF period will feature prevailing VFR conditions. Light east winds will become calm by 02Z at all sites as weakening high pressure stays over the area. Higher level clouds will increase on Saturday afternoon as low pressure begin to develop to the west of the area with light winds from the southwest varying to the northwest. && .MARINE... Light east to northeast winds will become variable Friday as weakening high pressure remains over the waters. A developing low pressure system will shift east from the Gulf coast to off the Carolina coast Friday night into early Saturday with a powerful arctic front plunging across the waters Saturday afternoon. This very strong front will bring strong winds and gusts across the waters Saturday which will strengthen to gale- force Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon as the low deepens as it moves northeastward. There will be a low chance of a mix of rain and snow showers across the waters Saturday night as moisture wraps around the low leading to occasional periods of low visibility. High pressure will build from the west and over the waters during the early and middle part of next week. Rip Currents: Low risk for SE GA beaches through Friday and low-end Moderate risk at NE FL beaches as surf continues to lower. NE FL beaches will be at a Low Risk by Friday as surf heights diminish. && .FIRE WEATHER... - MinRH levels below 30 percent will be common Sunday and Monday - Low daytime Dispersions inland Friday and Wednesday - Widespread High daytime Dispersions Saturday and Sunday - Areas of high dispersions Monday Low pressure will develop northeast of the region Today, then track away to the northeast over the weekend. A very cold airmass will be in place over the weekend. High pressure will build early in the week. A cold front will move southaast across area Wednesday night and Thursday, bringing chances for rain. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected this morning or Tonight. Snow may mix with rain at times over SE GA and coastal NE FL Saturday and Saturday night. && .CLIMATE... Daily records challenged by the arctic cold air outbreak are below: Record Low Maximum Temperatures: Saturday, January 31: JAX 40/1909 CRG 43/1977 GNV 47/1909 AMG 44/1948 Sunday, February 1: JAX 42/1900 CRG 44/1980 GNV 41/1909 AMG 42/1980 Record Low Temperatures: Sunday, February 1: JAX 24/1977 CRG 29/1977 GNV 25/1977 AMG 22/1977 Monday, February 2: JAX 23/1979 CRG 27/1980 GNV 25/1980 AMG 19/1951 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 29 60 33 42 / 0 10 20 20 SSI 41 60 41 51 / 0 0 20 20 JAX 35 66 39 51 / 0 10 20 10 SGJ 41 67 44 56 / 0 0 20 10 GNV 34 68 40 51 / 0 0 20 10 OCF 34 69 41 53 / 0 0 20 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for FLZ021-023-024- 030-031-035-120-136-220-225-232-236-237-240-322-340-422- 425-522. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125- 132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333- 340-422-425-433-522-533-633. Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132- 136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340- 422-425-433-522-533-633. GA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for GAZ153-165. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250- 264-350-364. Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350- 364. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for GAZ132>136-149- 151-152-162-163-250-264-350-364. MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1258487 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 717 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The aviation section was updated for the 00Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Confidence continues to increase in an accumulating snowfall event across a portion of the SC Lowcountry and SE Georgia Saturday morning through Saturday night. - 2) Uncommonly cold temperatures are expected to impact the area this weekend into early next week with dangerously cold conditions expected Saturday night and Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Confidence continues to increase in an accumulating snowfall event across a portion of the SC Lowcountry and SE Georgia Saturday morning through Saturday night. On Saturday, a coastal low pressure system is expected to develop off the southeast coast out ahead of a strong upper level trough. While the southward extent of the precipitation shield remains uncertain somewhere near the Altamaha River Valley, scattered to areas of drizzle/rain are expected to develop throughout the day given weak isentropic lift in a well saturated atmospheric column. As the aforementioned low increases in strength, cooler air is filtered down into the region, with no warm air aloft causing any precipitation type headaches, bringing a switch from rain to snow throughout the afternoon hours on Saturday. The dendritic growth zone remains well saturated for a few hours Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning, and when combined with the strong forcing from the upper level trough swinging through, would not be surprised to see snowfall rates reach up into the 0.5 to 1 inch per hour range. This is especially true given the atmospheric columns well below freezing across the region, leading to rather "dry" snowfall as snow-to-liquid ratios near the 20:1 mark. In addition, seeing some signals that instability-driven frontal banding may further result in higher snowfall totals, especially across portions of southeastern South Carolina. With numerous hours where the environment is capable of producing and sustaining snowfall accumulations, light to moderate snowfall continues to look likely Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning. While overall QPF amounts are looking to remain light at maybe a tenth of an inch across southern southeastern Georgia and just over a quarter inch across northern Berkeley and Charleston counties, the cold temperatures and thus high snow-to-liquid ratio has potential to create some impressive snowfall totals. Areas across northern Berkeley have a decent chance (30-40%) for seeing 4 inches of snow, while the rest of the tri-county region looks to remain in the 1 to 3 inch range. Elsewhere across southeast South Carolina, between half an inch to 2 inches of snow can be expected. Across southeast Georgia, between half an inch to an inch is expected along and south of the I-16 corridor, rising into the 1 to 3 inch range heading further north of I-16 into the Jenkins/Screven county area. Regardless of where you are, the "light and dry" nature of the snow combined with some breezy winds will likely lead to lowered visibilities in tandem with the accumulating snow, so be on the lookout for difficult travel conditions. KEY MESSAGE 2: Uncommonly cold temperatures are expected to impact the area this weekend into early next week with dangerously cold conditions expected Saturday night and Sunday morning. Confidence continues to increase that an extended period of uncommonly cold temperatures will impact southeast GA and southeast SC this weekend and into early next week. There continues to be excellent model agreement concerning the cold air, including indications of temperatures on the order of 5 standard deviations below normal in the column across the region for Saturday and Sunday. A shot of very cold air will push through the area Saturday and Saturday night as arctic high pressure pushes in from the west and an area of low pressure develops off the Southeast coast. The coldest night is expected to occur Saturday night into Sunday morning when widespread teens are expected across the forecast area. In fact, we cooled the forecast low from the deterministic NBM by blending in the even colder NBM50 as the deterministic values continue to run outside the high end of the IQR. Also, the presence of snow on the ground should provide support for even lower temperatures. The forecast now advertises low to mid teens inland and upper teens along the coast. When combined with persistent northwest winds gusting into the 20-25 mph range, wind chills are forecast to plunge into the single digits for Sunday morning. With this in mind, we have issued an Extreme Cold Watch for all of southeast GA and southeast SC from Saturday evening through midday Sunday. For Sunday night and Monday morning, wind chills are expected to fall well into the teens. Temperatures will only be a couple of degrees higher than the night before, but winds will be significantly less which will yield higher wind chill values. A Cold Weather Advisory will almost certainly be needed. Tuesday morning will again be cold, but wind chills will be even higher. There could be a few isolated areas with wind chills down to around 20 degrees, but a Cold Weather Advisory looks less likely. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 00Z Saturday. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to prevail into Friday night. The probability of widespread flight restrictions will increase for Saturday and Saturday night as an area of low pressure develops off the coast. There is also increasing potential for snow and gusty winds at the terminals. && .MARINE... Tonight through Friday: Overall, quiet conditions are expected to prevail across the local waters through Friday. Winds should remain 10 knots or less with seas 1-2 feet. The main time period of concern for marine conditions will start early Saturday morning as an area of low pressure develops and strengthens off the Southeast coast. Northwest winds will strengthen Saturday and likely peak Saturday night into Sunday. Conditions should then improve Sunday night into Monday as the low pulls away and the gradient weakens. Confidence is increasing that widespread gales will impact the local waters starting Saturday afternoon and potentially continuing into early Sunday afternoon. Therefore, a Gale Watch has been issued for all waters (not including Charleston Harbor) for gusts up to around 40 knots. Gusts could be close to gale force for Charleston Harbor as well, but confidence isn`t quite high enough for a watch there. If a Gale Warning is eventually issued, a period of Small Craft Advisories will be needed later Sunday and through Sunday night once the gales come to an end Sunday afternoon. && .CLIMATE... Record Low Temperatures: January 31: KCHS: 15/1966 KCXM: 19/1966 KSAV: 16/1966 February 1: KCHS: 21/1977 KCXM: 23/1900 KSAV: 23/1977 February 2: KCHS: 19/1980 KCXM: 17/1917 KSAV: 18/1917 Record Low Maximum Temperatures: January 31: KCHS: 36/1948 KCXM: 34/1936 KSAV: 37/1909 February 1: KCHS: 38/1980 KCXM: 36/1900 KSAV: 38/1900 February 2: KCHS: 38/1980 KCXM: 38/1898 KSAV: 38/1951 Record Snowfall: January 31: KCHS: 0.6/1977 KSAV: 1.3/1977 February 1: KCHS: no record established KSAV: no record established && .EQUIPMENT... The KCLX radar remains out of service. We hope to have the radar restored by Saturday. Users should use adjacent WSR-88D sites, including KCAE, KLTX, KJAX, KVAX and KJGX. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for GAZ087-088-099>101. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141. SC...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for SCZ040-042>045-047>052. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for SCZ040-042>045-047>052. MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for AMZ350-352-354-374. && $$ |
| #1258486 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 618 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold front pushes through this evening, but Arctic air really doesn`t filter in until Friday night. - Cold Weather Advisory in effect for all locations minus the barrier islands overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Will likely - Hard freezes for northern parts of the area Friday night & most of the region Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1239 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 The cold front is set to arrive to the Brazos Valley this evening, move through the Houston Metro around 9 PM, and be offshore around midnight. Cold, Arctic air will funnel into SE Texas Friday, bringing temperatures down into the 40s to mid 50s. The effects of the Arctic air will be more prominent during the overnight hours Friday into Saturday morning as areas north of I-10 drop into the 20s (with some locations in the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley entering hard freeze territory). Elsewhere, temperatures will be in the upper 20s to low 30s. Wind chill values will bottom out in the teens for the northern half of the region while areas south of the I-10 corridor will see wind chills drop into the low to mid 20s. Most of the area, with the exception of the barrier islands, will reach into the advisory criteria; therefore, a Cold Weather Advisory will be in effect early Saturday morning through 10 AM. Cold air will continue Saturday with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s across the area. Saturday night into Sunday is projected to be the coldest night of the weekend as temperatures dive into the teens across portions of the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley and into the low to mid 20s elsewhere. Wind Chill values will drop into the teens to low 20s north of I-10 and into the 20s for south of I-10. A Cold Weather Advisory will likely be needed for Saturday night into Sunday morning as well, and with temperatures dropping that low, expect most of the area north of I-10 to experience a hard freeze as well. High pressure will move off to the east on Sunday, reintroducing the warming trend that will continue into early next week. Onshore flow will bring moisture back into the area just in time for another front later in the forecast period. Bailey && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 525 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 The main aviation concern will be a wind shift and increasing gusts due to the passage of a dry cold front. The front will move across the terminals this evening, bringing NW winds around 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts at times. Gusts will continue through Friday afternoon, before gradually weakening from northwest to southeast by the afternoon. With surface winds increasing this evening into Friday, LLWS should not reach thresholds. However, keep in mind that there is a possibility of a window of LLWS with gusts around 30 knots at 12-2kft, especially around IAH terminal. JM && .MARINE... Issued at 1239 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Light winds and low seas will prevail through the day. The next cold front will push off the coast late this evening followed by moderate north winds and building seas. With a reinforcing shot of cold, Arctic air anticipated Friday night, winds and seas should further increase into Saturday, then gradually decrease Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the bays from 2 AM through noon Friday and for the Gulf Waters from 2 AM Friday through 2 PM Saturday. On the bays, already low astronomical tides will produce some negative water levels this week, even more so Friday night into the weekend with stronger north winds in place. Low Water Advisories are already in place. Bailey && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 33 52 26 39 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 38 54 32 43 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 43 54 36 45 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM CST Saturday for TXZ163- 164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338. GM...Low Water Advisory until midnight CST Saturday night for GMZ330- 335. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to noon CST Friday for GMZ330-335. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 2 PM CST Saturday for GMZ350-355-370-375. && $$ |
| #1258485 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:51 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 642 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to storm total snowfall forecast, with amounts decreasing across the northern half of the area. Blizzard wording has been added to the Winter Storm Watch along the coast. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued tonight for the Maryland Eastern Shore and Accomack County, VA. An Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for the entire forecast area Saturday night into Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) High confidence that a strong winter storm impacts the region Friday night into Sunday. Significant accumulating snowfall, blowing and drifting snow due to strong winds, coastal flooding, and significant marine impacts are expected. The highest confidence is across south and southeastern portions of the area. There will likely be a very sharp gradient in total snowfall amounts, roughly along the US-360 corridor (potentially through the Richmond Metro). 2) A quick burst of light to moderate snow is possible Friday afternoon and evening ahead of the main winter storm, especially across portions of central and south central Virginia. Due to the very cold temperatures, any snow could quickly accumulate on surfaces, including roadways. This is a low confidence, but potentially high impact event. 3) Well below normal temperatures remain through early next week, keeping localized impacts (i.e icy roads) in place through the weekend. The coldest air wind chills are expected Saturday night into Sunday morning and an Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for the entire forecast area. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect tonight for portions of the Maryland and Virginia Eastern Shore. && .DISCUSSION... As of 315 PM EST Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...High confidence that a strong winter storm impacts the region Friday night into Sunday. Significant accumulating snowfall, blowing and drifting snow due to strong winds, coastal flooding, and significant marine impacts are expected. The highest confidence is across south and southeastern portions of the area. There will likely be a very sharp gradient in total snowfall amounts, roughly along the US-360 corridor (potentially through the Richmond Metro). Disagreement still remains higher than what is typically seen during this time range (especially on the NW side) amongst the deterministic and ensemble guidance in regards to total snow amounts/locations of the higher snow amounts across the area. The main mode of disagreement continues to be the battle zone between drier air from the N/NW associated with a very strong area of high pressure (~1045 mb) over the Plains, and an intense low pressure system developing off the SE coast late Friday night/Saturday. The disagreements in regards to snow amounts can be seen well in the probabilistic snowfall range amounts. If we use Richmond as an example, the 25th percentile shows 1" and the 75th percentile shows 8". For Norfolk, the ranges are a bit "closer" with the 25th being 6" and the 75th being 10". Diving into the individual models/ensembles, the ECMWF/EPS has actually expanded the higher snow amounts across the south and southeast compared to some of the previous runs, with a very sharp cutoff north (unfortunately right near the Richmond metro). The Canadian has also moved a touch north with the ~3-6" amounts, but keeps the 6"+ amounts mainly confined to the southeast. Finally, the GFS/GEFS has trended south with the highest amounts (especially compared to the 00z/29 run), keeping a majority of the 6"+ amounts across the far south/southeast and the overall highest amounts just south of the CWA across NC. Finally, we are just starting to come into range of the CAMs which may provide a bit more clarity this evening and tonight. For now, the forecast resembles a blend between the previous forecast and the latest model guidance. Overall, snow amounts were lowered ~1-2" across the forecast area this afternoon, with amounts ranging from 0.5-2" across northwestern portions of the forecast area, to ~2-5" through the Richmond metro to the Tri- Cities, to 4-7" across south central Virginia over to Eastern Shore, to 7-12+" across southeast Virginia (Hampton Roads) into northeast North Carolina. One trend that continues in most of the models is a "piece" of the surface high over the Plains ridging SE into the local area Friday into early Saturday, with low pressure across the eastern Gulf coast showing an inverted trough extending north into the southern Appalachians. This has trended to an initial overrunning precip event (all snow). For the Piedmont, this portion of the storm may account for a majority of the snowfall. SLR values will be very high, 15:1 to 18:1 so even a relatively low amount of QPF could lead to a significant accumulation (which will be efficient on area roads given temperatures well below freezing). Part 2 of the storm gets amped up later Saturday, and is expected to peak Saturday night into early Sunday. The models (even the GFS) are all in pretty good agreement that the digging upper trough becomes cutoff as it drops SE from the TN Valley (at 12Z/Sat), to the GA-SC coastal plain by Saturday evening (00Z/Sun). The resulting low is forecast to deepen by as much as 15 mb/6 hr Sat evening as it drifts NE off the coast. Therefore, in addition to heavy snowfall, which is of highest confidence across SE VA and NE NC, very strong winds are likely to develop for coastal areas, with winds rather strong even for inland zones. Strong winds and a significant snowfall are expected within the Watch, with highest confidence across southern/SE VA and NE NC. Added blizzard wording to the Winter Storm Watch for portions of Hampton Roads and coastal northeast North Carolina and Blizzard Warning may likely be needed for these locations. Winds may gust to 50-60 mph along the coast Saturday night into Sunday. Please keep a close eye on the forecast over the next 24 hours, with forecast confidence remaining below average for this timeframe. A ~50 mile shift in the coastal low will have drastic impacts to the final snowfall amounts. Additional messaging and headlines will need adjustments over the next few forecast cycles. KEY MESSAGE 2...A quick burst of light to moderate snow is possible Friday afternoon and evening ahead of the main winter storm, especially across portions of central and south central Virginia. Due to the very cold temperatures, any snow could quickly accumulate on surfaces, including roadways. This is a low confidence, but potentially high impact event. Latest CAMs, including the 18z HRRR and NAM 3km show the potential for light snow developing across areas south of I-64 Friday afternoon/evening. If snow does fall, there is a possibility (~20 to 40% probability) of accumulations up to 0.5". Air temperatures will be well below freezing during this timeframe, allowing for efficient accumulation on all surfaces. While this scenario is fairly low confidence, there could be significant travel impacts if it does happen. KEY MESSAGE 3...Well below normal temperatures remain through early next week, keeping localized impacts (i.e icy roads) in place through the weekend. The coldest air wind chills are expected Saturday night into Sunday morning and an Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for the entire forecast area. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect tonight for portions of the Maryland and Virginia Eastern Shore. Tonight will again be very cold, though winds are expected to be light as high pressure extends into the area, keeping wind chills near ambient temps that will mostly be in the teens or mid to upper single digits NW. However, there will be enough of a light breeze tonight across portions of the Eastern Shore to allow for wind chills to drop into Cold Weather Advisory territory. As a result, another Cold Weather Advisory has been issued tonight into Friday AM for the Maryland Eastern Shore and Accomack County, VA where wind chills as low as 0 are expected. Friday will see highs struggle to get out of the mid 20s for much of the northern half of the area. Saturday will be even colder with highs in the low to mid 20s for most. An Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for Saturday night into Sunday morning where the combination of a strong N to NW wind and air temperatures in the low to mid teens will result in wind chills as low as 0 to 10 below. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 642 PM EST Thursday... VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow evening at all terminals. Upper level cloud cover will continue to stream across the terminals, with some lower level clouds starting thicken up tomorrow morning. A few light snow showers are possible tomorrow afternoon at RIC, ORF, and PHF, but confidence is very low in this so have not included in the TAFs at this time. Winds will generally remain light from the northwest before becoming northeasterly tomorrow morning. Outlook: A winter storm will impact the area later Friday through Sunday. Snow is expected to spread eastward to include most terminals overnight into Saturday. May become +SN with low VIS Sat night into Sun morning. Winds will also become strong later Sat, with the highest gusts closer to the coast. Widespread flight restrictions are possible with this storm. && .MARINE... As of 320 PM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across the coastal waters north of Parramore Island into this evening. - Confidence remains high in high-end Gale to Storm conditions this weekend as a strong coastal low develops off the Carolinas. Freezing spray and high seas are expected this weekend. - Coastal flooding is increasingly likely across the Lower Chesapeake Bay, Lower James River, and Virginia Beach and eastern Currituck Counties Sunday morning. NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across most of the local waters and 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the northern coastal waters north of Parramore Island were noted this afternoon. As such, have ended all SCAs except for the coastal waters north of Parramore Island where they remain in effect until 7 PM. Additionally, while some light freezing spray remains possible through tonight, it appears marginal enough to refrain from issuing additional Freezing Spray Advisories at this time. Strong high pressure builds south from the northern Plains into the Gulf Fri into Sat. Meanwhile, a coastal low is expected to develop off the Southeast coast Fri night into Sat before tracking ENE off the coast through Sun. Most model guidance shows the potential for quite impressive pressure falls with WPC depicting a 980mb low off of the Outer Banks by 12z Sun. Recent model trends have favored a farther south track of the low which has resulted in slightly lower winds forecast for the local waters. However, there remains a moderate-high potential for widespread Storm conditions this weekend across the Ches Bay, coastal waters, Lower James River, and Currituck Sound with Gale conditions likely across the upper rivers. The probability for 48 kt gusts was 30-60% across the Ches Bay (highest across the Lower Bay), 40-65% across the northern Coastal Waters north of Cape Charles Light, and 70-80% across the southern coastal waters south of Cape Charles Light. Therefore, have maintained all Storm Watches and Gale Watches. Seas of 8-12 ft across the northern coastal waters and 10-15+ feet across the southern coastal waters (highest across the NC coastal waters) are expected given the strong winds. Additionally, given the high probability for snow (potentially heavy), periods of zero visibility are increasingly likely across the coastal waters Sat into Sun. Winds become NW behind the low and gradually diminish Mon. Tides/Coastal Flooding... Given the strength of the low coinciding with higher astronomical tides, widespread coastal flooding is increasingly likely with the Sun morning high tide. Moderate coastal flooding remains possible across the Lower James River and lower Ches Bay Sun with moderate to locally major coastal flooding possible across the Mouth of the Bay and the Virginia Beach and Currituck Outer Banks coastline. Minor coastal flooding remains possible across the Atlantic coastline of the Eastern Shore. Will hold off on Coastal Flood Watches at this time, however, will likely need them in future updates as confidence increases. Additionally, given the strong N/NNW winds, low water levels are likely across portions of the middle Ches Bay and Currituck Sound. Low Water Advisories may be needed in future updates. && .CLIMATE... Record Low Max Temperatures for Sat Jan 31: - RIC: 23 (1948) - ORF: 25 (1936) - SBY: 24 (2019) - ECG: 29 (1965) Daily Record Snowfall for Sat Jan 31 and Sun Feb 1: - Date: Sat Jan 31 Sun Feb 1 - RIC: 7.0" (1948) 3.1" (1948) - ORF: 4.0" (1980) 4.0" (1910) - SBY: 4.0" (2010) 4.0" (1962) - ECG: 5.0" (1980) 7.0" (1948) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for MDZ021>025. Extreme Cold Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for MDZ021>025. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for MDZ023>025. NC...Extreme Cold Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for NCZ012>014-030. Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday evening for NCZ015>017-031-032-102. VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for VAZ099. Extreme Cold Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093- 095>100-509>525. Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for VAZ092-093. Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday evening for VAZ095>100-524-525. Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon for VAZ060-061-065>069-079-087. Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for VAZ076>078-080>086-088>090-512>520-522-523. MARINE...Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for ANZ630-631-650-652-654. Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for ANZ632>634-638-656-658. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for ANZ635>637. && $$ |
| #1258484 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:45 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 638 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... High confidence continues for a Major Winter Storm to develop this weekend across the Carolinas. Winter Storm Watches continue for all of Eastern North Carolina. Have added Blizzard Condition mentions for eastern coastal counties. Storm Watches continue for all marine zones save for the Pamlico and Pungo Rivers (Gale Watch) starting Saturday evening. A High Wind Watch continues for all OBX zones, and has been expanding to Downeast Carteret, Mainland Dare, and Tyrrell counties starting Saturday evening. Coastal Flood Watches has been issued for Outer Banks and Downeast Carteret. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Major Winter Storm to develop across the Carolinas this weekend, as an area of low pressure deepens rapidly off the NC coast. a) Heavy Snow: Several inches of snow are expected across all of Eastern NC, with some locations likely seeing upwards of a foot of snow. Snow rates of up to 1-2" per hour are possible. Strong winds will coincide with the heaviest snow rates, which will produce near whiteout conditions at times, and even blizzard conditions along the eastern NC coast (including OBX) b) Wind: A rapidly deepening bomb cyclone will produce very strong winds across Eastern NC, especially the coast. Peak wind gusts will likely reach 35-50 mph inland, and 55-70 mph along the coast and OBX early Sunday morning. These winds could blow down trees and power lines especially when snow load becomes an issue. c) Extreme Cold: More extreme cold is expected during and after the winter storm, with wind chills likely falling below 0 Sunday and Monday mornings. d) Coastal Flooding: Potential for moderate to locally significant coastal flooding for areas along the Outer Banks and adjacent to the southern Pamlico Sound. 2) MARINE...Extremely dangerous marine conditions expected this weekend as a low pressure system deepens rapidly off the NC coast. Storm conditions are expected with the potential for Hurricane Force wind gusts. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1a-1b... A major winter storm will unfold this weekend across the Carolinas as an area of low pressure deepens rapidly off the NC coast. Confidence remains high and continues to increase that the area will see several inches of snow, with some spots seeing upwards of a foot of snow. In addition to the potential major impacts of the heavy snow, very strong winds will develop as the low pressure deepens rapidly off the NC coast. These strong winds will further reduce visibilities, leading to blowing and drifting snow, and could lead to blizzard conditions developing across the Eastern NC coast (including OBX). Potential Life Threatening Situations: The combination of these hazards will make travel impossible and could lead to life threatening situations if motorists become stranded due to the extreme cold temperatures that will move in Sunday morning. Additionally, widespread power outages are possible due to strong winds/heavy snow knocking down power lines and/or trees. Power restoration may be slow due to treacherous road conditions, and residents should prepare for the potential for longer term power outages with extremely cold temperatures outside. Historically, this storm`s setup is most like the December 24, 1989 and early March 1980 storms. Both of these historic events produced 12+" of snow for Eastern North Carolina with accumulations from the March 1980 storm nearing 24" in some areas. While there`s potential for this weekend`s snow accumulations to be comparable to these past events, keep in mind that we`re still more than 36 hours out from when the heaviest snow is expected to fall, which means there`s still room for adjustments (up or down) in the accumulation forecast. However, with the probabilities of higher snow amounts consistently going up, the higher end amounts should not be taken lightly when thinking about storm preparation. No matter how much snow falls, it will not melt quickly due to the extremely cold air that will build in behind this system. Temperatures aren`t expected to approach freezing until Monday, but some areas may not get above freezing until Tuesday. KEY MESSAGE 1c... Extremely cold air will stick around behind the winter storm with the potential to set additional new record low temperatures Monday and Tuesday mornings. Lows will be in the low tens to low 20s Sunday night/Monday morning with dangerously cold wind chills in the sub- zero to single digit range. High temperatures will approach freezing on Monday, but it`s possible some inland areas to remain below freezing from tomorrow night until Tuesday. KEY MESSAGE 1d... The combination of very strong winds, wave action and high astronomical tides will lead to moderate to locally significant coastal flooding impacts, both soundside and oceanside. Impacts will likely begin on the oceanside and transition to soundside as winds back from NE to NW Sat afternoon into Sun. This will likely lead to travel impacts for vulnerable portions of NC-12, especially for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. A Coastal Flood Watch has been issued for the Outer Banks and Downeast Carteret county, with potential for 2-4 ft of inundation (above ground level). At this time, greatest oceanside impacts expected from Duck to Ocracoke...and soundside impacts from Rodanthe to Downeast Carteret. Minor to locally moderate water rises possible for areas adjacent to the southern Albemarle Sound and particularly up the Neuse River. Additional CF related products will be needed as well as High Surf Advisories with future updates. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR flight cats through the TAF period. Winds have backed off to light and variable or calm in most locations at this time. Near the end of the TAF period expect ceilings to begin to lower but remain VFR, diving into MVFR territory shortly after. Outlook: This weekend, an extended period of poor flying conditions as a coastal low develops and brings significant snow, poor visibilities, and potential blowing and drifting snow due to wind gusts of 35-40 kt to inland East NC. CIGs will begin to decrease from offshore Wward FRI evening with MVFR CIGs likely with some potential for lower categories. VIS, especially during heaviest snowfall and with the strong winds blowing accumulated snow, will likely be IFR at best, with LIFR or VLIFR having strong potential. Snowfall cessation and falling off of winds expected through the day SUN, though snow on ground will linger into early next week. && .MARINE... A brief window of good boating conditions is expected from this evening through early tomorrow night with winds N to NE at 10-20 kts, and seas 2-4 ft. Outlook: A rapidly deepening low pressure system and potentially bomb cyclone will produce extremely dangerous marine conditions this weekend. Storm force winds of 40-50 kts are expected with the potential for Hurricane Force wind gusts (64+ kts) across portions of the coastal waters. Seas could reach 15-20 ft. Storm Watches continue for all marine zones save for the Pamlico and Pungo Rivers (Gale Watch) starting Saturday evening. Conditions will slowly improve Sunday night with winds forecast to drop below SCA criteria by Monday afternoon. 6+ ft seas may linger well into Tuesday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon for NCZ029-044-045-079>081-090>092-094-193>195- 198-199. Extreme Cold Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196- 198-199-203. Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Sunday evening for NCZ046-047-196-203. High Wind Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for NCZ046-047-196-203>205. Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for NCZ196. Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for NCZ203>205. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for NCZ204-205. MARINE...Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for AMZ131. Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for AMZ135-230-231. Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for AMZ136. Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for AMZ137. Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for AMZ150. Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for AMZ152-154. Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for AMZ156-158. && $$ |
| #1258483 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:39 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 623 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 621 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 - Another intense arctic blast likely arrives by Saturday with more hard freezes and dangerous wind chills returning. Wind chills in the single digits are becoming increasingly likely (70 to 90% chance). Continue to monitor this potential for dangerous cold as we approach the weekend. - Given cold temperatures, action to protect vulnerable pipes, pets, plants, needs to be completed by Friday evening. - There is a high (90%) chance of gale conditions over the waters late Friday into Saturday. Very dangerous marine conditions are expected with gusts up to 40 knots and building seas. There is also a high chance of widespread 30 to 40 mph gusts across land areas which could cause sporadic power outages. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Friday) Issued at 258 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 A benign pattern will be in place across the forecast area today and into Friday as surface high pressure moves east over the region. The slow warming trend that started yesterday will continue into Friday. However, we do not expect the warmer conditions to last long, as the next significant cold front will be on our doorstep by Friday night. Ahead of this next front, isolated to scattered showers are possible across the region Friday afternoon. Given the limited moisture content ahead of the front, amounts will be very light and spotty. Forecast high temperatures will be around the upper 50s and low 60s. These values will be the warmest we can expect to see until at least next Tuesday or Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 258 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 The long-term period is likely to bring some of the most significant cold weather the area has seen in years. This cold will rival similar cold snaps observed in late December 2022, early January 2012, mid January 2011, and early January 2010. The record low for Tallahassee on Sunday, February 1, is 20F, which was last set in 1977. The long-term period starts Friday night as the arctic front begins to race into the forecast area behind a departing surface low. This area of low pressure will steadily strengthen as it moves into the western Atlantic and a strong arctic high moves in behind it. As this crashes into the deepening low pressure, the pressure gradient will rapidly increase across the tri-state region on Saturday. Not only will this facilitate the advection of an arctic air mass south into the region, but it will also bring strong winds across our land and marine zones. For marine zone impacts, please view the marine discussion below. Across our land areas, the tightening pressure gradient will allow widespread 20 to 25 mph sustained winds, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible on Saturday, especially across unsheltered regions free of tree cover. Given these winds, sporadic power outages are possible. These gusts should continue well into the late afternoon hours before the pressure gradient slowly weakens into Sunday morning. Despite the gradient weakening by the evening hours, sustained winds will likely remain around 10 to 15 mph through the overnight hours of Saturday into Sunday. This leads to our primary weather concern: the dangerous cold. After a warm afternoon in the upper 50s and low 60s on Friday, temperatures will rapidly drop Friday night into Saturday afternoon as the arctic air mass moves in. By sunrise Saturday morning, temperatures will likely have dropped into the upper 20s across southeast Alabama and the Panhandle, and into the low to mid-30s across southern Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. Despite increasing sunshine into the afternoon, temperatures will likely not warm through the day, as the warming influence of the sun is counteracted by continuing cold air advection. Most locations are likely to see only a pause in the cool-down in the early afternoon, especially across our Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia counties. With the winds accompanying the cold, wind chill values will likely remain in the teens and low 20s all Saturday across southeast Alabama and will struggle to climb above freezing across the remainder of our forecast area. As the sun sets, continued cold air advection will allow the coldest air of the season to settle in place Saturday night into Sunday morning. As winds remain elevated around 10 to 15 mph overnight, expect wind chills to plummet into the single digits by midnight Sunday. A few locations in the colder spots may flirt with near-zero wind chills around sunrise Sunday, especially if winds remain higher than forecast. These wind chills can cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 to 60 minutes, so be sure to bundle up with hats and gloves if spending any time outside. Air temperatures region-wide will drop into the mid-teens across southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Panhandle Saturday night into Sunday morning. Temperatures in the mid to upper teens can be expected across the Florida Big Bend. Because many locations, especially across the northwest portions of our forecast area, will see 12 to 15 hours of hard-freeze conditions, those with outdoor plumbing, plants, and pets could be severely impacted. Actions to protect these entities should be completed by Friday night and Saturday morning. Given these conditions, an extreme cold watch has been issued for the entire forecast area from Saturday afternoon into Sunday afternoon. It`s important to note that this watch covers the period of most concern for damaging cold. However, a cold weather advisory will likely be needed for Saturday morning and early afternoon to account for wind chills in the upper teens and low 20s. The chill will remain on Sunday as afternoon highs only reach the low to mid-40s. Another night of dangerous cold is expected as overnight lows drop into the low 20s. While the duration of the hard freeze will not be as long, these freezing temperatures follow significantly cold weather, so proactive precautions must still be taken Sunday night into Monday. Given lower wind speeds, wind chill values will not be nearly as cold and will generally align with the forecast air temperatures. A slow warm-up begins Monday, with highs slowly climbing into the 50s and then the low 60s by Tuesday or Wednesday. While this system is forecast to be dry for much of our area, we cannot rule out a few snow flurries or a light dusting of snow across our northeastern zones Saturday afternoon. This will be associated with wrap- around precipitation as the surface low strengthens. Temperatures will be cold enough to support flurries or a light rain-snow mix across some of our Georgia counties. If any accumulations occur, they would most likely be north and east of a Tifton to Albany line and limited to a dusting on grassy surfaces. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. A weak disturbance will slide from west to east over the area Friday morning with the best chance of a quick shower or two in and around KECP. Winds are expected to remain under 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 258 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will continue today before clocking around out of the east to southeast on Friday. An area of low pressure will move over the marine area Friday a bring few showers. Behind the low, winds will become northerly to northwesterly and quickly increase to near gale force by early Saturday morning. Gusts of 40 to 45 kt are becoming increasingly likely, especially in the offshore waters where chances are now medium to high (60 to 90%). This will result in widespread gale conditions across the region, and the Gale watches remains in effect. Given the conditions, it`s likely a small craft advisory will be needed for the St Andrews Bay as well. Conditions will remain around gale levels through through early Sunday morning before dropping to below advisory levels late Sunday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 258 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will continue today before clocking around out of the east to southeast on Friday. An area of low pressure will move over the marine area Friday a bring few showers. Behind the low, winds will become northerly to northwesterly and quickly increase to near gale force by early Saturday morning. Gusts of 40 to 45 kt are becoming increasingly likely, especially in the offshore waters where chances are now medium to high (60 to 90%). This will result in widespread gale conditions across the region, and the Gale watches remains in effect. Given the conditions, it`s likely a small craft advisory will be needed for the St Andrews Bay as well. Conditions will remain around gale levels through through early Sunday morning before dropping to below advisory levels late Sunday night. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 258 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Very little precipitation is forecast over the next 7 days, and there are no flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 34 59 35 41 / 0 20 20 0 Panama City 42 63 33 41 / 10 20 20 10 Dothan 34 58 28 35 / 10 20 10 10 Albany 30 57 30 38 / 0 20 10 10 Valdosta 32 60 33 44 / 0 20 20 10 Cross City 33 66 38 51 / 0 10 20 10 Apalachicola 42 61 35 42 / 10 20 20 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118- 127-128-134-326-426. GA...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161. AL...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning for ALZ065>069. GM...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for GMZ730-755-765-775. Gale Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1258482 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:36 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 622 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 155 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 - Chilly overnight with warmer, near-normal temperatures Friday afternoon - Very windy conditions develop Saturday with strong wind gusts35 to 45 mph; occasional gusts around 50 mph possible - A rare Extreme Cold Watch and Freeze Watch issued for all of east central Florida Saturday night into Sunday; dangerous wind chill values as low as 7 degrees and a hard freeze likely with lows in the 20s Sunday morning - Gale Watch issued for rapidly deteriorating boating conditions Saturday afternoon and night as winds increase and seas build; strong gale-force gusts are likely && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Now-Friday...While still a bit on the cool side, it is a pleasant afternoon out there as temperatures climb into the 60s. Satellite imagery is absent of clouds over central and east central Florida, allowing for ample sunshine. Temperatures will fall efficiently into the upper 30s to mid 40s in most places overnight (low-mid 50s at the coast), which ranges from 5-10 degrees below normal, on average. Low level cloud cover is forecast to slowly increase on Friday across the Treasure Coast while a few high clouds move across northern portions of the area. Friday will be the last warm day with near-normal temperatures until next Wednesday. Pleasant conditions will provide a prime opportunity to prepare for this weekend`s significantly colder air (Saturday may be too windy...more on that below). There is a low chance for an isolated shower or two across Martin and coastal Saint Lucie counties Friday as coastal trough develops. However, this surface feature will pretty quickly move offshore, leaving drier conditions behind by late afternoon/early evening. Temperatures settle into the 40s and low 50s overnight into early Saturday. Saturday...Big changes are on the way beginning Saturday morning as a strong cold front moves quickly across the Gulf and state of Florida. A developing low pressure system over south Georgia early Saturday morning is forecast to quickly move east over the Atlantic Saturday morning, dragging a cold front into east central Florida around sunrise. PW briefly increase ahead of the front to 1", and with sufficient forcing, isolated to scattered showers are forecast to develop. These showers will move quickly from west to east, with higher chances focused south of Melbourne (from Lake Okeechobee to the Treasure Coast). Rain totals will be very light, generally less that 0.05" to 0.10". Clouds will be around through the frontal passage and shortly thereafter but are likely to clear out fast Saturday afternoon as drier air arrives. The aforementioned surface low is forecast to rapidly deepen offshore of the Carolina Coast Saturday. This will lead to pressure falls and winds strengthening behind the passing cold front. Sustained west-northwest winds 20-30 mph with frequent gusts 35-45 mph are likely (models show 925 winds 35-45+ kt). In fact, there is at least a 20-30% probability of 50+ mph gusts Saturday afternoon and evening. With this in mind, by midday Saturday, it will become increasingly difficult to secure any loose outdoor items or prepare vegetation for the anticipated hard freeze Saturday night. Thus, we encourage residents (and visitors) to make preparations for the cold weather before these strong gusty winds arrive! Temperatures will plummet Saturday afternoon after reaching an earlier high in the mid 50s to mid 60s. By sunset, expect temps to range from the low 40s north of I-4 to the upper 40s/low 50s along the Treasure Coast. A hard freeze is forecast overnight Saturday into Sunday morning, with forecast lows dipping into the low and middle 20s (upper 20s far south). This, combined with gusty northwest winds, will lead to wind chill values in the teens and single digits. With a widespread freeze and extreme cold event increasingly likely, residents, officials, and agricultural operations should begin preparing. People and pets with inadequate shelter or heat will face a risk of frostbite and hypothermia. Exposed pipes may freeze, and some non-native plants and trees will succumb to the elements if not properly protected. The risk to non- cold-hardy plants and palms is much higher due to the wind-driven cold that is expected. With increasing confidence in a widespread hard freeze and dangerously cold wind chills, both a Freeze Watch and an Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for all of east central Florida Saturday night through midday Sunday. To emphasize the rarity of such an event, the last time NWS Melbourne issued a Wind Chill Warning was in January of 2014. Sunday-Wednesday...While winds decrease gradually on Sunday as the nor`easter pulls well and away, temperatures will struggle to reach the mid 40s to low 50s areawide. Combine this with a 10-20 mph wind and wind chills will stay in the upper 30s to low 40s Sunday afternoon. Very dry conditions are forecast, so plenty of sunshine is anticipated. Fire sensitive to critical fire weather conditions may develop as result of the dry conditions and breezy northwest winds (lingering into Monday). Another very cold night is on tap Sunday night into Monday morning, with lows forecast to sink below the freezing mark in most locations. Wind chills retreat into the teens and low 20s as a 5-10 mph northwest wind persists. High pressure builds overhead Tuesday into Wednesday, and an anticipated warmup commences with highs in the 60s Tuesday reaching the upper 60s to low 70s by Wednesday. Each morning will still be on the cold side (30s to low 40s). For additional cold weather support, including probabilities and durations of specific temperatures for your location, visit weather.gov/mlb/coldsupport. && .MARINE... Issued at 155 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Generally favorable boating conditions return to the local waters tonight into Friday as high pressure moves overhead. Light west- northwest winds briefly increase to 10-15 kt offshore Friday afternoon. Seas 2-4 ft. A strong cold front is set to bring a rare and significant cold outbreak to the Florida Peninsula and adjacent Atlantic waters. As the front approaches and moves across the waters during the day Saturday, northwest winds quickly strengthen to 25-35+ kt (likely sustained gale-force) with strong gale-force gusts. For a brief time Saturday night, occasional storm-force gusts cannot be ruled out. Seas build in response, growing to 5-8 ft nearshore and 8-11 ft offshore by sunset Saturday evening. Seas build further, reaching 6- 11 ft nearshore and 10-16 ft offshore by Sunday morning. Seas will be slow to subside early next week, likely remaining hazardous in the Gulf Stream through Monday into early Tuesday, as northwest winds gradually weaken. Thus, a Gale Watch has been issued, beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing through at least midday Sunday. Shower chances return to the Gulf Stream and nearshore Treasure Coast waters Friday as a coastal trough briefly forms, then shifts offshore Friday evening. On Saturday, rain chances increase along and ahead of the strong cold front (particularly over the Gulf Stream and south of Cape Canaveral). && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 620 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 VFR conditions forecast through the period. Light and variable winds tonight pick up out of the southwest to northwest after 17Z around 10 knots. Cloud cover begins building through the day on Friday, but there are no CIG concerns at this time. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 155 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Sunday, February 1st: RECORD NORMAL RECORD NORMAL DATE LOWS LOWS COOL-HIGHS HIGHS Daytona Beach (DAB) 1-Feb 30 1936 49 47 1980 70 Leesburg (LEE) 1-Feb 30 1979 50 52 1978 71 Sanford (SFB) 1-Feb 30 1965 51 46 1977 72 Orlando (MCO) 1-Feb 28 1936 51 48 1936 73 Melbourne (MLB) 1-Feb 32 1966 52 55 1948 72 Vero Beach (VRB) 1-Feb 29 1966 53 56 1966 74 Fort Pierce (FPR) 1-Feb 32 1909 52 54 1936 74 Monday, February 2nd: RECORD NORMAL RECORD NORMAL DATE LOWS LOWS COOL-HIGHS HIGHS Daytona Beach (DAB) 2-Feb 32 1980 50 51 1980 70 Leesburg (LEE) 2-Feb 29 1980 50 48 1980 71 Sanford (SFB) 2-Feb 33 1980 51 49 1980 72 Orlando (MCO) 2-Feb 32 1980 51 54 1951 73 Melbourne (MLB) 2-Feb 33 1980 52 55 1994 73 Vero Beach (VRB) 2-Feb 34 1980 53 55 1980 74 Fort Pierce (FPR) 2-Feb 34 1980 52 57 1994 74 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 45 70 46 57 / 0 0 20 10 MCO 46 71 50 59 / 0 0 20 20 MLB 49 72 47 63 / 0 10 20 20 VRB 48 72 47 64 / 0 10 20 30 LEE 42 70 46 55 / 0 10 20 10 SFB 44 71 47 57 / 0 0 20 10 ORL 45 71 50 57 / 0 0 20 20 FPR 48 72 47 64 / 0 20 20 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164- 247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747. Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264- 347-447-547-647-747. AM...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575. && $$ |
| #1258481 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:36 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 525 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 521 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 - Strong cold front moves through tonight. - Freezing temperatures Saturday and Sunday mornings. - Low rain chances next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1232 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Our next cold front is heading through through North Texas this afternoon and will reach South Texas around or a bit after midnight. This is the first of a fairly typical 1-2 punch with the front followed by a reinforcing surge of colder air. Temperatures Friday morning will actually be similar to this morning, and in some cases a bit warmer. Saturday is when surface ridging - and the colder air - sink into the area. Saturday morning lows will flirt with the freezing mark, mainly for northern areas. At this point, looks like it should be pretty brief, and will not be issuing a freeze warning yet. Will reassess with future forecasts. A cold weather advisory will quite likely be needed though for parts of the area - most likely roughly the northern half with wind chill values dropping to 20-25F. Expect a chilly day Saturday with highs in the 50s. Have gone just a bit below NBM for this period based on model trends, but the sun will be out, so that will help a bit. The coldest period will be Saturday night into Sunday morning when a hard freeze is likely once again. Low temperatures range from the lower 20s north to the lower 30s south and along the coast. Expect most points away from the immediate coast (within a few miles) will fall below freezing for a time, and a freeze warning will be necessary along with a cold weather advisory with very low wind chill values again, ranging from 15 to 25 area wide. As we head into next week, the pattern is fairly unsettled, with a shortwave passing on Tuesday then a larger trough Wednesday. Moisture remains limited, but there is a low chance for a few showers Tuesday through Thursday, with another front pushing through Thursday. Before that front arrives, temps could touch 80 degrees in some areas on Tuesday with mainly 70s expected Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 521 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF cycle. A dry front is expected to move through the region beginning around midnight tonight (06Z). This is expected to increase winds and gusts around all terminals while also shifting winds to the north. Winds will come down by tomorrow evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1232 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 A light to gentle flow is expected to continue this afternoon and evening. A cold front will move through after midnight shifting winds to the north at strong levels with some gusts near gale force possible. There is a low chance for showers mainly offshore overnight. Strong winds will persist through Saturday before subsiding by Sunday. A weak to moderate onshore flow returns by Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1232 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 A cold front will move through the area tonight with RH values falling to low levels (20-30%) Friday and Saturday. Expect breezy conditions near the coast tomorrow, but any duration of stronger winds aligning with low humidity will be limited. ERC values remain generally low, and the potential for critical fire conditions is low. RH values increase late in the weekend and early next week. There is a low chance for showers toward the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 41 58 36 51 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 36 57 29 47 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 45 63 35 56 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 40 60 32 53 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 40 57 35 49 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 40 62 32 52 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 42 60 33 53 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 44 57 40 50 / 10 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to noon CST Friday for GMZ231-232- 236-237. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 2 PM CST Saturday for GMZ250-255-270-275. && $$ |
| #1258480 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:36 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 617 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 604 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 - The odds of significant cold, coastal, and marine impacts across South Florida this weekend continues to increase. Vulnerable individuals and agricultural interests should begin necessary preparations ahead of the cold. - A Gale Watch is in effect for South Florida beginning on Saturday afternoon and evening. Sustained winds of 30-40 knots with higher gusts is possible across the Atlantic and Gulf waters through Sunday afternoon. Mariners should stay up to date with the latest forecast over the next several days. - A potentially record breaking cold snap is possible late weekend into early next week as another strong cold front passes through the area. Near freezing to sub-freezing low temperatures are possible for a large area of South Florida early Sunday, Monday and Tuesday morning. Lows in the 30s could reach as far South as Miami Dade County with wind chills in the 20s (mid to upper 10s near Lake Okeechobee) across all of South Florida. && .UPDATE... Issued at 604 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 The latest forecast guidance today has continued to trend colder, with apparent temperatures on Sunday morning now forecast to be in the mid 10s across Glades County with low to mid 20s along the east coast and apparent temperatures in the mid to upper 20s across the Naples metro. Accordingly and to ensure good lead time for the general public and any agricultural interests, An Extreme Cold Watch and Freeze Watch have been issued for a large portion of South Florida. As we are roughly 48 hours away from Sunday morning, exact values and the forecast could still change. Watches may be expanded, upgraded, or cancelled. Users are advised to stay up to date with the latest NWS Miami forecast information. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 After a somewhat dreary and cloudy Wednesday, Thursday and Friday should bring more sunshine across all of South Florida. While early morning temperatures are expected to be quite cold again, the afternoon hours should be quite pleasant with most of South Florida warming up into the 70s. Overnight temperatures tonight into Friday will remain warmer than the previous few days as well. Expect upper 50s to low 60s along the east coast with mid 40s to lower 50s for interior and Southwest Florida. On Friday, a weak area of low pressure will cross the Florida peninsula which could bring a few more clouds and scattered showers during the afternoon hours. Winds will begin to shift from the northeast to the northwest through the day as the next hotly anticipated cold front approaches from the north. Aside from a few showers during the afternoon, Friday should be fairly pleasant as well with highs in the lower 70s. Lows overnight into Saturday will reach the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 The aforementioned area of low pressure enters the western Atlantic on Saturday and will begin to rapidly deepen as it pushes towards the northeast. This system will send a strong cold front across South Florida on Saturday afternoon which will act to reinforce the cooler air mass across the area. The coolest and driest air mass of the season thus far arrives early Sunday morning with potentially widespread freezing or near freezing low temperatures across South Florida. Northwest flow prevails behind the strong front, which will advect a dry arctic continental air mass down the Florida peninsula all day on Sunday. Sunday night into Monday morning could be even colder as cold air advection is maximized, and maritime modification to the air mass is minimized, or nearly non-existent. Low temperatures could be so cold early Sunday and early Monday that Extreme Cold Warnings may be needed around Lake Okeechobee with potential Freeze Warnings extending much further south than the earlier cold snaps this season. Afternoon high temperatures on Sunday and Monday may not reach much higher than the mid 50s. Trends have been closely monitored and will continue to be monitored through the week although confidence is slowly increasing that this could be the coldest Attic snap across South Florida since December 2010. Temperatures begin to rebound on Tuesday morning but will still dip into the lower 30s to lower 40s across all of South Florida although Tuesday afternoon we may finally be able to reach the 60s during the afternoon. On Wednesday afternoon, high temperatures (finally) are able to climb back into the 70s. Visit our website for graphical temperature forecasts (hover over `Forecast` and then click `Cold Weather` OR `Other Probabilistic Forecast Graphics`). Describing temperatures across every part of the forecast area through text is a bit clunky and images make the message much clearer. While the anomalous temperature forecast continues to steal the show, surface winds behind this cold front will be quite significant as well. Winds will increase out of the northwest on Saturday afternoon between 15-25 mph over land with potential gusts to around 40 mph through Sunday morning. A Wind Advisory is not out of the question for this time period, and this potential will continue to be monitored. Regardless, it would be wise to secure any light outdoor objects that may become projectiles prior to this weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 604 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Light and variable winds are forecast overnight with a gradual increase in SHRA during the early morning hours. Have maintained VCSH accordingly in the TAF forecast with bouts of sub MVFR cigs possible if SHRA impacts any east coast terminal. Winds will remain light on Friday, remaining northerly but veering slightly onshore (NWrly at KAPF, NErly along the east coast) during the afternoon hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 Conditions across local waters continue to improve today and Friday before they will once again rapidly deteriorate on Saturday. NNE flow between 15-20 kts will prevail today, weakening to 10-15 kts on Friday. Friday night into early Saturday, winds will veer to a more westerly direction across all local waters increasing to 30-40 kts by late Saturday night. Gusts during this time period could reach 40-50 kts. Gale watches/warnings will be explored over the coming forecast cycles. Wave heights will peak with the winds late Saturday night into early sunday warning with heights of 10-12 feet across both Gulf and Atlantic waters. Winds and waves will slowly subside through the afternoon and evening on Sunday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 A moderate risk of rip currents continues at all Atlantic beaches through the end of the week. Rip current probabilities are poised to increase behind a cold front passage late this weekend into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 61 70 56 69 / 30 40 20 30 West Kendall 55 72 51 69 / 30 40 20 30 Opa-Locka 58 72 55 69 / 30 40 20 30 Homestead 60 72 55 70 / 30 50 20 30 Fort Lauderdale 61 70 56 68 / 30 40 20 30 N Ft Lauderdale 61 70 56 67 / 30 40 20 30 Pembroke Pines 58 72 54 69 / 30 40 20 30 West Palm Beach 58 71 54 66 / 20 40 20 30 Boca Raton 60 72 55 67 / 30 40 20 30 Naples 52 70 54 65 / 10 10 40 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for FLZ063-066>068-168. Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for FLZ063-066>068-070-071-073-168. AM...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night for AMZ610. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through late Saturday night for AMZ630. Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for AMZ650-651-670-671. GM...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning for GMZ656-657-676. && $$ |
| #1258479 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 625 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Cold Weather Outbreak This Weekend & Early Next Week. Freeze Warning & Frost Advisory for Inland Locations Tonight. Extreme Cold Watch Saturday Night & Early Sunday Morning. Lows in the Teens Possible Inland and Lower 20s at Coastal Locations. Dangerously Cold Wind Chills in the Teens & Single Digits - Windy Coastal Conditions Saturday and Saturday Night. Gusts up to 40 MPH at NE FL Beaches. Gale Conditions Across Coastal Waters - LOW Potential for Snowfall Saturday and Saturday Evening. Probabilities for Minor Impacts (Transportation) are 5-10% Across Southeast GA && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Freezing low temperatures are expected tonight for portions of inland southeast Georgia, with lows in the mid to upper 30s elsewhere inland with 40s near the coast. Calm winds overnight will allow for areas to widespread frost formation not only in the Freeze Warning area, but for portions of inland northeast Florida as well, where a Frost Advisory is now in effect. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure will shift across the FL panhandle, reaching the Atlantic by Saturday morning. Southwesterly winds develop on Friday as the Low pressure shifts across the area. This will allow for warmer air to filter into the area, which will bring daytime highs to in the 60s area-wide. By Friday night, isolated showers may be possible across SE GA and NE FL as the Low pushes over the Atlantic. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s as winds shift to become northwesterly, bringing in colder air into the area. By Saturday the surface Low will begin to deepen over the Atlantic waters leading to northwesterly winds to gradually increase locally through the afternoon hours, continuing the advection of colder air into the local area. We could see some light wintry mix during the afternoon to evening hours on Saturday as moisture moves onshore, with chances of any wintry precip mainly along the Altamaha River Basin in SE GA and coastal locations. With cold air filtering into the area will bring overnight temperatures to dip into the teens across SE GA and the lower 20s across NE FL, with a Freeze Watch in place area-wide. The elevated northwesterly winds will cause for wind chills to drop into the single digits by Sunday morning, promptly the insurance of an Extreme Cold Watch (the first for the JAX CWA). With the cold temperatures expected to last well into the afternoon hours on Sunday, both watches currently are in effect until 1pm Sunday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Dry and cold conditions on Sunday as the Low continues to shift towards the north-northeast. The elevated winds will begin to weaken by Sunday night as high pressure builds over the region. Temperatures will begin to warm through the upcoming week as highs will reach into the 50s on Monday and Tuesday and then the 60s by Wednesday and Thursday. Freeze products will likely be needed on Sunday/Monday night as sub freezing temperatures remain over the area. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... The 00Z TAF period will feature prevailing VFR conditions. Light east winds this evening will become calm by 02Z at all TAF sites as weakening high pressure stays over the area. High level clouds will increase on Saturday afternoon as low pressure system begins to develop to the west with light winds from the southwest varying to the northwest around 5 knots. && .MARINE... Winds will settle this afternoon as high pressure becomes situated over the area through Friday night before a powerful arctic front plunges across the waters Saturday. This very strong front will bring strong winds and gusts across the waters Saturday which will strengthen to gale-force Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon as a low pressure organizes and deepens quickly off the coastal Carolinas. There will be a low chance of a mix of rain and snow showers across the waters Saturday night as moisture wraps around the low and this may lead to occasional periods of low visibility. High pressure will build from the west and over the waters during the early and middle part of next week. Rip Currents: Low risk for SE GA beaches through Friday and low-end Moderate risk at NE FL beaches as surf continues to lower. NE FL beaches will be at a Low Risk by Friday as surf heights diminish. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Low dispersions over inland SE GA and Suwannee Valley Friday - Widespread high dispersions Saturday and Sunday Widespread MinRH values at or below 30 percent Sunday and - Monday - Areas of high dispersions Monday Light easterly winds Friday morning shift to southwesterly by the afternoon hours. Dispersions become poor over SE GA due to lower winds and lower mixing heights on Friday. Chances for showers will increase on Friday night, followed by strengthening northwesterly surface and transport winds on Saturday, bringing very high daytime dispersion values by Saturday afternoon. Strong and gusty northwesterly surface and transport winds on Saturday night will yield very high nighttime dispersion values area-wide, and speeds will only gradually diminish by Sunday afternoon, with high daytime dispersion values continuing. An Arctic air mass will filter into our region on Saturday night, with critically low humidity values expected at inland locations on Sunday afternoon. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas to widespread frost at inland locations late Tonight and early Friday morning. A dangerously cold airmass will settle in over the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Daily records challenged by the arctic cold air outbreak are below: Record Low Maximum Temperatures: Saturday, January 31: JAX 40/1909 CRG 43/1977 GNV 47/1909 AMG 44/1948 Sunday, February 1: JAX 42/1900 CRG 44/1980 GNV 41/1909 AMG 42/1980 Record Low Temperatures: Sunday, February 1: JAX 24/1977 CRG 29/1977 GNV 25/1977 AMG 22/1977 Monday, February 2: JAX 23/1979 CRG 27/1980 GNV 25/1980 AMG 19/1951 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 31 60 33 42 / 0 10 20 20 SSI 43 60 41 51 / 0 0 20 20 JAX 37 66 39 51 / 0 10 20 10 SGJ 44 67 44 56 / 0 0 20 10 GNV 36 68 40 51 / 0 0 20 10 OCF 37 69 41 53 / 0 0 20 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for FLZ021-023-024- 030-031-035-120-136-220-225-236-322-422-425-522. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125- 132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333- 340-422-425-433-522-533-633. Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132- 136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340- 422-425-433-522-533-633. GA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for GAZ153-165. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250- 264-350-364. Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350- 364. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for GAZ132>136-149- 151-152-162-163-250-264-350-364. MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1258478 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 517 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 513 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 - An arctic airmass filters into the local area Friday afternoon and lingers through Sunday. Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills are expected each night, with very little heating expected on Saturday. - Gusty winds are expected on Saturday across the area, with gusts potentially as high as 35-40 mph in spots. - Hazardous marine conditions are expected to impact our local marine zones Friday night through through Sunday morning. Winds to gale force are likely, along with the potential for low water levels in our bays and sounds and the possibility of a light freezing spray Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 218 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 For the remainder of today through tomorrow morning, zonal flow aloft will prevail, along with light onshore flow at the surface. This will allow for slightly warmer temperatures, with highs today in the mid to upper 50s, and possibly the lower 60s tomorrow. Lows tonight should generally remain above freezing with lows ranging from the low 30s inland to the low 40s along the coast. The pattern begins to change late tomorrow afternoon and into the weekend as an anomalously strong upper trough deepens over the southeast US. Ensembles continue to suggest that height anomalies over the southeast US will be over 5 standard deviations below normal for this time of year, which is an incredibly rare feat. This deep trough will help to send a powerful arctic front through the area sometime late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. A few light showers cannot be ruled out prior to the arrival of the front due to strong forcing and limited moisture pooling. With how light this rainfall is expected to be, and with how dry and windy we will get behind the front, we are not anticipating any black ice issues. Temperatures Friday night are expected to crash into the upper teens to low 20s west of I-65 and mid to upper 20s for areas east. Very tight pressure gradient behind the front will allow for winds to increase to around 15-25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph in spots. Pairing this with the very cold temperatures, wind chills will likely drop into the single digits for many interior areas Saturday morning and lower teens for coastal counties. As we go through the day on Saturday, winds are expected to increase even further as a northerly low-level jet develops. The cold, sinking airmass should help to bring down gustier winds from this jet to the surface, possibly allowing for winds to frequently gust to around 35-40 mph. If trends continue and confidence in these gustier winds increase, we may need to issue a Wind Advisory for portions of the local area. These strong, cold winds will also prevent us from warming much. In fact, some interior zones on Saturday may not get above freezing. Highs will range from the low 30s inland to the upper 30s along the coast. Factoring in the gusty winds, wind chills during the day will likely only remain in the upper teens to lower 20s! Our coldest night of the season comes Saturday night when lows plummet into the middle to upper teens, with low 20s along the immediate coast. With these forecasted temperatures, we could actually get pretty close to records Sunday morning (Feb 1st record lows - KMOB: 17; KPNS: 20). Global ensembles and NBM probabilities give a roughly 10-20% chance of KMOB reaching this record, and a 50- 60% chance of KPNS reaching this record. Would not be surprised to see these probabilities increase as CAM guidance gets into range. Winds Sunday morning will still remain rather elevated, helping to bring single digit wind chills to the entire local area. An extreme Cold Watch is in effect from Friday night all the way through Sunday morning. Residents and visitors are urged to make preparations to protect people, plants, pets, and pipes from this upcoming cold weather. Temperatures slowly start to moderate Sunday and especially into early next week as the upper trough lifts into the western Atlantic and high pressure pushes to the east of the local area. Lows will likely rise above freezing Tuesday night and highs by Wednesday should reach the lower 60s. /96 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 517 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 VFR conditions are expected through tonight, then a MVFR ceiling develops on Friday mainly west of I-65 while VFR conditions prevail further to the east. A light southerly flow this evening becomes light and variable, then a northwesterly flow at 5-10 knots develops Friday morning. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 218 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 A light onshore flow is beginning to develop this afternoon and will linger into tonight. Strong offshore flow with gale force wind gusts will develop Friday night through Saturday night as an arctic cold front blasts through the region, with seas as high as 10-12 feet well offshore. Winds and seas will decrease on Sunday. We are beginning to become increasingly concerned about two additional hazards this weekend for marine interests. The first is the potential for very low water levels in our local area bays and sounds due to the strong northerly winds expected. Guidance suggests that water levels may be as low as 3-4 feet below MHHW (potentially as low as 4.5 feet in Mobile Bay) at low tide on Saturday morning and Sunday morning. The second potential hazard is the possibility of freezing spray Saturday night, especially over Mobile Bay. Air temperatures dropping into the low to mid 20s, along with sustained winds around 25-30 knots, could lead to light icing concerns. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 38 60 25 35 / 0 10 0 0 Pensacola 43 62 28 37 / 0 10 0 0 Destin 46 61 29 38 / 10 10 0 10 Evergreen 33 58 23 32 / 0 20 0 0 Waynesboro 33 53 19 31 / 0 20 0 0 Camden 32 53 21 30 / 0 20 0 0 Crestview 34 62 26 34 / 0 10 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for ALZ051>060-261>266. FL...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for FLZ201>206. MS...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...Gale Warning from 6 PM Friday to midnight CST Saturday night for GMZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 10 AM CST Sunday for GMZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 10 AM CST Sunday for GMZ633>636. Gale Warning from 6 PM Friday to 10 AM CST Sunday for GMZ650-655- 670-675. && $$ |
| #1258477 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:21 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 508 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 505 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 - A cold front will move through tonight, bringing colder temperatures back to the region Friday through Sunday. - There is a medium to high chance (60-90%) of subfreezing temperatures Saturday night across the Northern Ranchlands and Upper RGV. There is a low chance (10-30%) of subfreezing temperatures Saturday night across the Low/Mid RGV. - Low rain chances (10-30%) along the immediate coast tonight into Friday morning. - Adverse beach conditions are possible through the weekend. Adverse marine conditions are expected Friday morning through Saturday afternoon, with a Small Craft Advisory in effect beginning at 5 AM Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1136 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Above normal temperatures Thursday will be the last taste of widespread 70s until next week as a cold front will pass through Deep South Texas late Thursday night into Friday morning. Showers ahead of the front will likely remain over the waters, with the greatest chance (10-30%) over land being along the coast and less than 10% for the remainder of the region. Friday morning lows will be comparable to this mornings in the 40s (50s near the coast). Cold air advection will keep Friday`s daytime highs below average in the 60s. Saturday will have the coldest high temperatures of the forecast, with the Ranchlands in the 50s and RGV in the low 60s. Sunday highs in the 60s will continue to climb through midweek, returning to the 70s by Monday. Freezing temperatures are possible again this weekend behind the front. In the Northern Ranchlands, Friday night/Saturday morning has a low-moderate (10-40%) chance of temperatures below freezing. The best chance for freezing temperatures is in the Northern Ranchlands and Rio Grande Plains Saturday night/Sunday morning, with a medium to high chance (60-90%) of minimum temperatures below freezing, and a moderate chance (30-50%) of a hard freeze. This same night, chances of subfreezing temps are lower (10-30%) in the RGV, with the highest chances being further north (Willacy County). Wind chills both mornings are expected to range from the mid-upper 20s (Ranchlands) to the 30s (coastal, RGV). Freezing or below temperatures, actual and apparent, are unlikely after Sunday morning. Gusty northerly winds behind the front will likely lead to hazardous coastal conditions with a High Risk of Rip Currents this weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 505 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Southeasterly winds will become more easterly this evening before a cold front moves through early Friday morning. Northerly winds will increase in wake of the front with gusts up to 25 kts into Friday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1136 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Light to moderate southeasterly winds and slight seas will continue through Thursday evening. There is a low to moderate chance (30-50%) of rain over the waters overnight ahead of a cold front passing overnight into early Friday. A Small Craft Advisory will go into effect at 5 AM Friday and last through Saturday afternoon. The SCA may need to be cancelled earlier for the Laguna Madre, possibly as early as Friday evening. A fresh to strong northerly breeze behind the front will persist Friday through early Saturday, before weakening and returning to onshore/southerly by Sunday night. Moderate seas behind the front return to slight by Monday. Favorable conditions continue early next week before another disturbance may return unfavorable conditions midweek. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 53 64 44 60 / 20 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 46 63 37 59 / 10 0 0 0 MCALLEN 50 66 41 62 / 10 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 48 66 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 55 63 52 59 / 30 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 50 63 45 59 / 20 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 3 PM CST Saturday for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175. && $$ |
| #1258476 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:21 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 610 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation update below. A Winter Storm Watch remains out for the ILM CWA. A Gale Watch is out for the coastal waters Saturday morning through Sunday. An Excessive Cold Watch is out covering dangerous cold possible Saturday night/Sunday morning and Sunday night/Monday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Temperatures well below normal will result in periods of dangerously low wind chill temperatures less than 16 degrees through at least Monday night. 2) Conditions remain favorable and confidence is increasing for significant winter weather this weekend. Expect impacts to travel and infrastructure, ranging from hazardous to dangerous conditions and closures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures well below normal will result in periods of dangerously low wind chill temperatures less than 16 degrees through at least Monday night. Dynamic storm system will usher in a very cold and somewhat prolonged air mass beginning late Saturday/early Sunday through really about the middle of next week. This along with sufficient confidence has prompted the issuance of an Extreme Cold watch. In pure terms Sunday may technically increase above the criteria...it will be a rugged and cold day and with Extreme Cold Warning criteria redeveloping by Monday morning. Suffice to say significant snow cover will help to sustain these conditions. KEY MESSAGE 2:...Conditions remain favorable and confidence is increasing for significant winter weather this weekend. Expect impacts to travel and infrastructure, ranging from hazardous to dangerous conditions and closures. Currently we`re sitting on the cusp of getting some of the higher res guidance for our winter storm, so for now the global models remain our main source of info. Wouldn`t be surprised if the hi-res guidance introduces more uncertainty with future forecast cycles, but for now the globals remain consistent with the overall pattern and no major changes, the EURO remaining on the lighter side when it comes to snowfall totals. Deep, cold air in place paired with the passing shortwave becoming offshore low into the weekend will bring moisture in leading to snow over the area. Moistening of the column through Saturday, particularly the afternoon onwards, would be the start of the snowfall for our area. The heaviest snowfall would occur Saturday night as mid- level frontogenesis increases with the development of the low. Precip type still remains largely snow, with a light wintry mix possible at the start of the event as the column changes, but no meaningful accumulations expected. Expected snowfall totals across the area have increased. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the period. Extended Forecast...Some flight restrictions are expected to develop with a storm system this weekend. Ceilings could lower to MVFR early Friday night with IFR possible as early as the latter part of Friday night. Precipitation will also begin after midnight Friday night/Saturday morning possibly as a rain/snow mix that will only limit vsby slightly. As Saturday wears on snow will become more heavy in nature leading to further vsby restrictions. The worst conditions will be Saturday night at which time heavy snow is expected in addition to increasing winds leading to blowing snow. Vsby could fall to VLIFR in blowing snow. && .MARINE... Through Friday...Winds will maintain a northerly component through the period. Speeds currently in the 10-15 knot range will decrease slightly to a 5-10 knot range tonight and then ramp up again Friday. Significant seas will see a slight variation but remain confined to a range of 2-4 feet. Friday Night through Tuesday...Deteriorating marine conditions to start the period due to an approaching winter storm. Overnight Friday into Saturday morning winds and seas will increase, gusting ~25 kts with 6 footers. A Gale Watch is in effect for late Saturday morning through Sunday, and gusts near storm force may be possible. The storm will move away through Sunday night with improving conditions through Monday. Benign conditions should return by Tuesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. SC...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1258475 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:06 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 600 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Cold Weather Advisories for dangerously cold wind chills were expanded to include Cape Cod tonight into Fri morning. Winter Storm Watches were issued for the Cape and Islands for late Sat night through Sunday night. However, latest trends favor a more offshore storm track and somewhat less impacts across southern New England. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerously cold wind chills tonight into Friday morning, and possibly Fri night into Sat morning. - Still a large degree of uncertainty surrounding a winter storm Sunday into Sunday night. Strong gusty winds and accumulating snow are certainly within the realm of possibility for the Cape and Islands. - Minor to moderate coastal flooding possible Sunday into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerously cold wind chills tonight into Friday morning, and possibly Fri night into Sat morning. A reinforcing shot of arctic air will move into New Eng tonight and Friday as a northern stream trough drops south from Canada. The trough passage will be accompanied by a surge of gusty WNW winds to 15-25 mph tonight into Fri morning. This coupled with lows of -5 to +5F will result in wind chills of -10 to -20F for much of SNE, with the coldest readings over the higher elevations where wind chills down to -20 to -25F are expected. We will continue the cold weather advisory for dangerous wind chills for much of SNE, except the Cape and Islands where wind chills will fall a bit short of -10F criteria. Winds drop off a bit Fri night but low temps are expected to be even colder with lows zero to -10F away from the immediate coast. There will be enough wind to generate similar wind chills of -10 to -20F late Fri night into Sat morning. Cold weather advisories will likely need to be extended. Dry weather expected through Sat, with mostly sunny days and mainly clear nights. The column is quite dry through Sat. KEY MESSAGE 2...Still a large degree of uncertainty surrounding a winter storm Sunday into Sunday night. Strong gusty winds and accumulating snow are certainly within the realm of possibility for the Cape and Islands. Ensemble and deterministic guidance continues to indicate a coastal storm moving off the NC/SC coast, rapidly intensifying as it moves north and east. Previous guidance has had a large amount of uncertainty regarding where exactly the low may pass in relation to southern New England, with some models taking a more northerly track and some a more southerly. The latest suite of guidance continues to be highly variable regarding the potential for accumulating snow and strong gusty winds Sunday into Sunday night. The 12z ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian ensembles have trended the general location of the surface low further south and east than previous runs, with the latest Grand Ensemble and subsequent clusters showing a positively- tilted upper trough, possibly leading to the latest southeastward trend. If the storm tracks further south and east, the highest winds and snowfall totals would be confined to the southern Cape and Islands, while a sharp gradient sets up somewhere over the South Shore, leading to significantly decreased chances of Boston, Providence, and the I-95 corridor seeing moderate impacts. GFS and Canadian ensembles are showing PWATs >0.33" over the far southeastern portion of the Cape and Nantucket, with a sharp, decreasing gradient over the northern portion of the Cape. The ECMWF ensemble has taken a more moisture-loaded approach, bringing PWATs ranging from 0.33" along the I-95 corridor to 0.66" on Nantucket. NBM 5.0 probabilities of seeing 6" of snow in 24 hours over the Cape and Islands have decreased from 50%-65% last night to 40%-50% with the latest run, with probabilites for the I-95 corridor dropping from 35%-50% to near 25%. The latest WSSI-P probabilities for Moderate Impacts has also significantly decreased to 40% over the Cape and Islands and 20% across the I-95 corridor. After coordinating with the neighboring offices and WPC, felt moderately confident in issuing a Winter Storm Watch for the Cape and Islands beginning after midnight Sunday morning. Regardless of how far southeast the low passes, expecting a wide- reaching, intense pressure gradient to whip up winds Sunday. Latest NBM probabilites of reaching 55mph winds gusts (storm force winds) across the inner waters range from 45% to 65% and >75% across the outer waters, and these probs have remained steady over the last 24 hours. Therefore, felt confident in issuing Storm Watches for the outer waters, including Cape Cod Bay. KEY MESSAGE 3...Minor to moderate coastal flooding possible Sunday into Monday. A Coastal Flood Watch has been issued for the eastern Massachusetts coastline Sunday into Monday. High astronomical tides combined with at least a 1 to 3 foot storm surge and strong N/NE winds will bring the potential for minor to perhaps moderate coastal flooding along the eastern Massachusetts coast during high tides Sunday morning, Sunday evening, and Monday around midday. Based upon the projected offshore track of the coastal storm, the highest winds and storm surge should be focused closer to Cape Cod, Nantucket, and Marthas Vineyard where the higher chances of seeing moderate flooding exists. However, building seas of 20-25 feet offshore will add additional impacts to the ocean exposed coastline from Plymouth County north to the Merrimack River, so despite lower water levels, those areas could still see moderate impacts. Additionally, the long overwater fetch should result in significant beach and dune erosion, especially in areas that have been hard hit in recent years including Newburyport/Plum Island, Sandwich, Chatham, and Edgartown. Should the storm trend farther offshore, the threat of coastal flooding would decrease, but given the high astronomical tides it is reasonable to expect at least minor coastal flooding. A trend closer to New England would raise the odds of moderate flooding over much of the coastline, but the chances of reaching major flood impacts would still remain very low. As a reminder, minor flooding refers to shallow flooding up to 1 foot deep and can result in temporary road closures on more vulnerable coastal roads. Moderate flooding refers to flooding 1 to 3 feet deep and can cause more widespread road closures, damage to shorefront property, and debris on coastal roads from large waves. Vehicles left in flood prone areas can also be flooded. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Friday Night...High confidence. VFR. Increasing west winds tonight, however, terminals that are able to decouple from the boundary layer will experience LLWS with winds aloft between 30-35 knots. Winds remain westerly and gust 20-25 knots on Friday. KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. VFR. Gusty west at 20-25 knots KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. VFR. West winds around 10 knots tonight. LLWS possible with winds aloft around 30-35 knots. Gusty west winds Friday. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday: VFR. Saturday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Slight chance SN. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 50 kt. Chance SN. Sunday Night: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 50 kt. Chance SN. Monday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Tuesday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. * Moderate to heavy freezing spray developing on the waters tonight into Friday * Dangerous marine conditions developing Sunday A period of WNW gusts to 25-30 kt will develop tonight into Friday, then diminishing wind Fri night. The gusty winds will be accompanied by a reinforcing shot of arctic air which will result in widespread moderate freezing spray with areas of heavy freezing spray over some of the nearshore waters. Significant accretion of ice is expected on vessels over the waters. Freezing spray advisories and heavy freezing spray warnings remain in effect. Our attention turns to a powerful ocean storm which tracks well south and east of the waters on Sunday. Potential for storm force NE gusts to 50-55 kt over the outer waters peaking during Sunday, with 40-50 kt gusts over nearshore waters. Seas expected to build to 20+ ft on the waters east of Cape Cod resulting in dangerous conditions for mariners. In additions, areas of light to moderate freezing spray will develop Sat night though Sun night. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 20 ft. Freezing spray. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for CTZ002>004. MA...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for MAZ002>022- 026. Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024. Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through late Sunday night for MAZ022>024. RI...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for RIZ001>007. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ230-236. Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for ANZ230. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Friday for ANZ231>235-237- 251. Freezing Spray Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ231- 235>237-250-251-254-256. Storm Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for ANZ231-232-250-254>256. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ232>234-255. Gale Watch from late Saturday night through late Sunday night for ANZ233>235-237. Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday evening for ANZ236. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ250- 254>256. Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Monday morning for ANZ251. && $$ |
| #1258474 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:27 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 412 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... High confidence continues for a Major Winter Storm to develop this weekend across the Carolinas. Winter Storm Watches continue for all of Eastern North Carolina. Have added Blizzard Condition mentions for eastern coastal counties. Storm Watches continue for all marine zones save for the Pamlico and Pungo Rivers (Gale Watch) starting Saturday evening. A High Wind Watch continues for all OBX zones, and has been expanding to Downeast Carteret, Mainland Dare, and Tyrrell counties starting Saturday evening. Coastal Flood Watches has been issued for Outer Banks and Downeast Carteret. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Major Winter Storm to develop across the Carolinas this weekend, as an area of low pressure deepens rapidly off the NC coast. a) Heavy Snow: Several inches of snow are expected across all of Eastern NC, with some locations likely seeing upwards of a foot of snow. Snow rates of up to 1-2" per hour are possible. Strong winds will coincide with the heaviest snow rates, which will produce near whiteout conditions at times, and even blizzard conditions along the eastern NC coast (including OBX) b) Wind: A rapidly deepening bomb cyclone will produce very strong winds across Eastern NC, especially the coast. Peak wind gusts will likely reach 35-50 mph inland, and 55-70 mph along the coast and OBX early Sunday morning. These winds could blow down trees and power lines especially when snow load becomes an issue. c) Extreme Cold: More extreme cold is expected during and after the winter storm, with wind chills likely falling below 0 Sunday and Monday mornings. d) Coastal Flooding: Potential for moderate to locally significant coastal flooding for areas along the Outer Banks and adjacent to the southern Pamlico Sound. 2) MARINE...Extremely dangerous marine conditions expected this weekend as a low pressure system deepens rapidly off the NC coast. Storm conditions are expected with the potential for Hurricane Force wind gusts. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1a-1b... A major winter storm will unfold this weekend across the Carolinas as an area of low pressure deepens rapidly off the NC coast. Confidence remains high and continues to increase that the area will see several inches of snow, with some spots seeing upwards of a foot of snow. In addition to the potential major impacts of the heavy snow, very strong winds will develop as the low pressure deepens rapidly off the NC coast. These strong winds will further reduce visibilities, leading to blowing and drifting snow, and could lead to blizzard conditions developing across the Eastern NC coast (including OBX). Potential Life Threatening Situations: The combination of these hazards will make travel impossible and could lead to life threatening situations if motorists become stranded due to the extreme cold temperatures that will move in Sunday morning. Additionally, widespread power outages are possible due to strong winds/heavy snow knocking down power lines and/or trees. Power restoration may be slow due to treacherous road conditions, and residents should prepare for the potential for longer term power outages with extremely cold temperatures outside. Historically, this storm`s setup is most like the December 24, 1989 and early March 1980 storms. Both of these historic events produced 12+" of snow for Eastern North Carolina with accumulations from the March 1980 storm nearing 24" in some areas. While there`s potential for this weekend`s snow accumulations to be comparable to these past events, keep in mind that we`re still more than 36 hours out from when the heaviest snow is expected to fall, which means there`s still room for adjustments (up or down) in the accumulation forecast. However, with the probabilities of higher snow amounts consistently going up, the higher end amounts should not be taken lightly when thinking about storm preparation. No matter how much snow falls, it will not melt quickly due to the extremely cold air that will build in behind this system. Temperatures aren`t expected to approach freezing until Monday, but some areas may not get above freezing until Tuesday. KEY MESSAGE 1c... Extremely cold air will stick around behind the winter storm with the potential to set additional new record low temperatures Monday and Tuesday mornings. Lows will be in the low tens to low 20s Sunday night/Monday morning with dangerously cold wind chills in the sub- zero to single digit range. High temperatures will approach freezing on Monday, but it`s possible some inland areas to remain below freezing from tomorrow night until Tuesday. KEY MESSAGE 1d... The combination of very strong winds, wave action and high astronomical tides will lead to moderate to locally significant coastal flooding impacts, both soundside and oceanside. Impacts will likely begin on the oceanside and transition to soundside as winds back from NE to NW Sat afternoon into Sun. This will likely lead to travel impacts for vulnerable portions of NC-12, especially for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. A Coastal Flood Watch has been issued for the Outer Banks and Downeast Carteret county, with potential for 2-4 ft of inundation (above ground level). At this time, greatest oceanside impacts expected from Duck to Ocracoke...and soundside impacts from Rodanthe to Downeast Carteret. Minor to locally moderate water rises possible for areas adjacent to the southern Albemarle Sound and particularly up the Neuse River. Additional CF related products will be needed as well as High Surf Advisories with future updates. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR flight cats through the TAF period. N to NWerly breezes today with gusts upwards of 10- 15 kt at times this afternoon, easing this evening. FRI light ENEerly winds. Outlook: VFR conditions will likely continue through Friday afternoon as cold high pressure remains in place. This weekend, an extended period of poor flying conditions as a coastal low develops and brings significant snow, poor visibilities, and potential blowing and drifting snow due to wind gusts of 35-40 kt to inland East NC. CIGs will begin to decrease from offshore Wward FRI evening with MVFR CIGs likely with some potential for lower categories. VIS, especially during heaviest snowfall and with the strong winds blowing accumulated snow, will likely be IFR at best, with LIFR or VLIFR having strong potential. Snowfall cessation and falling off of winds expected through the day SUN, though snow on ground will linger into early next week. && .MARINE... A brief window of good boating conditions is expected from this evening through early tomorrow night with winds N to NE at 10-20 kts, and seas 2-4 ft. Outlook: A rapidly deepening low pressure system and potentially bomb cyclone will produce extremely dangerous marine conditions this weekend. Storm force winds of 40-50 kts are expected with the potential for Hurricane Force wind gusts (64+ kts) across portions of the coastal waters. Seas could reach 15-20 ft. Storm Watches continue for all marine zones save for the Pamlico and Pungo Rivers (Gale Watch) starting Saturday evening. Conditions will slowly improve Sunday night with winds forecast to drop below SCA criteria by Monday afternoon. 6+ ft seas may linger well into Tuesday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon for NCZ029-044-045-079>081-090>092-094-193>195- 198-199. Extreme Cold Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196- 198-199-203. Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Sunday evening for NCZ046-047-196-203. High Wind Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for NCZ046-047-196-203>205. Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for NCZ196. Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for NCZ203>205. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for NCZ204-205. MARINE...Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for AMZ131. Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for AMZ135-230-231. Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for AMZ136. Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for AMZ137. Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for AMZ150. Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for AMZ152-154. Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for AMZ156-158. && $$ |
| #1258473 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:33 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 320 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to storm total snowfall forecast, with amounts decreasing across the northern half of the area. Blizzard wording has been added to the Winter Storm Watch along the coast. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued tonight for the Maryland Eastern Shore and Accomack County, VA. An Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for the entire forecast area Saturday night into Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) High confidence that a strong winter storm impacts the region Friday night into Sunday. Significant accumulating snowfall, blowing and drifting snow due to strong winds, coastal flooding, and significant marine impacts are expected. The highest confidence is across south and southeastern portions of the area. There will likely be a very sharp gradient in total snowfall amounts, roughly along the US-360 corridor (potentially through the Richmond Metro). 2) A quick burst of light to moderate snow is possible Friday afternoon and evening ahead of the main winter storm, especially across portions of central and south central Virginia. Due to the very cold temperatures, any snow could quickly accumulate on surfaces, including roadways. This is a low confidence, but potentially high impact event. 3) Well below normal temperatures remain through early next week, keeping localized impacts (i.e icy roads) in place through the weekend. The coldest air wind chills are expected Saturday night into Sunday morning and an Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for the entire forecast area. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect tonight for portions of the Maryland and Virginia Eastern Shore. && .DISCUSSION... As of 315 PM EST Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...High confidence that a strong winter storm impacts the region Friday night into Sunday. Significant accumulating snowfall, blowing and drifting snow due to strong winds, coastal flooding, and significant marine impacts are expected. The highest confidence is across south and southeastern portions of the area. There will likely be a very sharp gradient in total snowfall amounts, roughly along the US-360 corridor (potentially through the Richmond Metro). Disagreement still remains higher than what is typically seen during this time range (especially on the NW side) amongst the deterministic and ensemble guidance in regards to total snow amounts/locations of the higher snow amounts across the area. The main mode of disagreement continues to be the battle zone between drier air from the N/NW associated with a very strong area of high pressure (~1045 mb) over the Plains, and an intense low pressure system developing off the SE coast late Friday night/Saturday. The disagreements in regards to snow amounts can be seen well in the probabilistic snowfall range amounts. If we use Richmond as an example, the 25th percentile shows 1" and the 75th percentile shows 8". For Norfolk, the ranges are a bit "closer" with the 25th being 6" and the 75th being 10". Diving into the individual models/ensembles, the ECMWF/EPS has actually expanded the higher snow amounts across the south and southeast compared to some of the previous runs, with a very sharp cutoff north (unfortunately right near the Richmond metro). The Canadian has also moved a touch north with the ~3-6" amounts, but keeps the 6"+ amounts mainly confined to the southeast. Finally, the GFS/GEFS has trended south with the highest amounts (especially compared to the 00z/29 run), keeping a majority of the 6"+ amounts across the far south/southeast and the overall highest amounts just south of the CWA across NC. Finally, we are just starting to come into range of the CAMs which may provide a bit more clarity this evening and tonight. For now, the forecast resembles a blend between the previous forecast and the latest model guidance. Overall, snow amounts were lowered ~1-2" across the forecast area this afternoon, with amounts ranging from 0.5-2" across northwestern portions of the forecast area, to ~2-5" through the Richmond metro to the Tri- Cities, to 4-7" across south central Virginia over to Eastern Shore, to 7-12+" across southeast Virginia (Hampton Roads) into northeast North Carolina. One trend that continues in most of the models is a "piece" of the surface high over the Plains ridging SE into the local area Friday into early Saturday, with low pressure across the eastern Gulf coast showing an inverted trough extending north into the southern Appalachians. This has trended to an initial overrunning precip event (all snow). For the Piedmont, this portion of the storm may account for a majority of the snowfall. SLR values will be very high, 15:1 to 18:1 so even a relatively low amount of QPF could lead to a significant accumulation (which will be efficient on area roads given temperatures well below freezing). Part 2 of the storm gets amped up later Saturday, and is expected to peak Saturday night into early Sunday. The models (even the GFS) are all in pretty good agreement that the digging upper trough becomes cutoff as it drops SE from the TN Valley (at 12Z/Sat), to the GA-SC coastal plain by Saturday evening (00Z/Sun). The resulting low is forecast to deepen by as much as 15 mb/6 hr Sat evening as it drifts NE off the coast. Therefore, in addition to heavy snowfall, which is of highest confidence across SE VA and NE NC, very strong winds are likely to develop for coastal areas, with winds rather strong even for inland zones. Strong winds and a significant snowfall are expected within the Watch, with highest confidence across southern/SE VA and NE NC. Added blizzard wording to the Winter Storm Watch for portions of Hampton Roads and coastal northeast North Carolina and Blizzard Warning may likely be needed for these locations. Winds may gust to 50-60 mph along the coast Saturday night into Sunday. Please keep a close eye on the forecast over the next 24 hours, with forecast confidence remaining below average for this timeframe. A ~50 mile shift in the coastal low will have drastic impacts to the final snowfall amounts. Additional messaging and headlines will need adjustments over the next few forecast cycles. KEY MESSAGE 2...A quick burst of light to moderate snow is possible Friday afternoon and evening ahead of the main winter storm, especially across portions of central and south central Virginia. Due to the very cold temperatures, any snow could quickly accumulate on surfaces, including roadways. This is a low confidence, but potentially high impact event. Latest CAMs, including the 18z HRRR and NAM 3km show the potential for light snow developing across areas south of I-64 Friday afternoon/evening. If snow does fall, there is a possibility (~20 to 40% probability) of accumulations up to 0.5". Air temperatures will be well below freezing during this timeframe, allowing for efficient accumulation on all surfaces. While this scenario is fairly low confidence, there could be significant travel impacts if it does happen. KEY MESSAGE 3...Well below normal temperatures remain through early next week, keeping localized impacts (i.e icy roads) in place through the weekend. The coldest air wind chills are expected Saturday night into Sunday morning and an Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for the entire forecast area. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect tonight for portions of the Maryland and Virginia Eastern Shore. Tonight will again be very cold, though winds are expected to be light as high pressure extends into the area, keeping wind chills near ambient temps that will mostly be in the teens or mid to upper single digits NW. However, there will be enough of a light breeze tonight across portions of the Eastern Shore to allow for wind chills to drop into Cold Weather Advisory territory. As a result, another Cold Weather Advisory has been issued tonight into Friday AM for the Maryland Eastern Shore and Accomack County, VA where wind chills as low as 0 are expected. Friday will see highs struggle to get out of the mid 20s for much of the northern half of the area. Saturday will be even colder with highs in the low to mid 20s for most. An Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for Saturday night into Sunday morning where the combination of a strong N to NW wind and air temperatures in the low to mid teens will result in wind chills as low as 0 to 10 below. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1210 PM EST Thursday... VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Skies will remain FEW-SCT250 today. Winds are NW at 6-10kt with a few gusts to 18kt along the coast. Winds become NNW to NNE this evening and overnight. Mid level clouds will develop during the later morning to mid-day hours of Friday. Outlook: A winter storm will impact the area later Friday through Sunday. Snow could start across the Piedmont, including FVX and possibly RIC (though lower confidence), Friday afternoon. It`s then expected to spread eastward to include most terminals overnight into Saturday. May become +SN with low VIS Sat night into Sun morning. Winds will also become strong later Sat, with the highest gusts closer to the coast. Widespread flight restrictions are possible with this storm. && .MARINE... As of 320 PM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across the coastal waters north of Parramore Island into this evening. - Confidence remains high in high-end Gale to Storm conditions this weekend as a strong coastal low develops off the Carolinas. Freezing spray and high seas are expected this weekend. - Coastal flooding is increasingly likely across the Lower Chesapeake Bay, Lower James River, and Virginia Beach and eastern Currituck Counties Sunday morning. NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across most of the local waters and 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the northern coastal waters north of Parramore Island were noted this afternoon. As such, have ended all SCAs except for the coastal waters north of Parramore Island where they remain in effect until 7 PM. Additionally, while some light freezing spray remains possible through tonight, it appears marginal enough to refrain from issuing additional Freezing Spray Advisories at this time. Strong high pressure builds south from the northern Plains into the Gulf Fri into Sat. Meanwhile, a coastal low is expected to develop off the Southeast coast Fri night into Sat before tracking ENE off the coast through Sun. Most model guidance shows the potential for quite impressive pressure falls with WPC depicting a 980mb low off of the Outer Banks by 12z Sun. Recent model trends have favored a farther south track of the low which has resulted in slightly lower winds forecast for the local waters. However, there remains a moderate-high potential for widespread Storm conditions this weekend across the Ches Bay, coastal waters, Lower James River, and Currituck Sound with Gale conditions likely across the upper rivers. The probability for 48 kt gusts was 30-60% across the Ches Bay (highest across the Lower Bay), 40-65% across the northern Coastal Waters north of Cape Charles Light, and 70-80% across the southern coastal waters south of Cape Charles Light. Therefore, have maintained all Storm Watches and Gale Watches. Seas of 8-12 ft across the northern coastal waters and 10-15+ feet across the southern coastal waters (highest across the NC coastal waters) are expected given the strong winds. Additionally, given the high probability for snow (potentially heavy), periods of zero visibility are increasingly likely across the coastal waters Sat into Sun. Winds become NW behind the low and gradually diminish Mon. Tides/Coastal Flooding... Given the strength of the low coinciding with higher astronomical tides, widespread coastal flooding is increasingly likely with the Sun morning high tide. Moderate coastal flooding remains possible across the Lower James River and lower Ches Bay Sun with moderate to locally major coastal flooding possible across the Mouth of the Bay and the Virginia Beach and Currituck Outer Banks coastline. Minor coastal flooding remains possible across the Atlantic coastline of the Eastern Shore. Will hold off on Coastal Flood Watches at this time, however, will likely need them in future updates as confidence increases. Additionally, given the strong N/NNW winds, low water levels are likely across portions of the middle Ches Bay and Currituck Sound. Low Water Advisories may be needed in future updates. && .CLIMATE... Record Low Max Temperatures for Sat Jan 31: - RIC: 23 (1948) - ORF: 25 (1936) - SBY: 24 (2019) - ECG: 29 (1965) Daily Record Snowfall for Sat Jan 31 and Sun Feb 1: - Date: Sat Jan 31 Sun Feb 1 - RIC: 7.0" (1948) 3.1" (1948) - ORF: 4.0" (1980) 4.0" (1910) - SBY: 4.0" (2010) 4.0" (1962) - ECG: 5.0" (1980) 7.0" (1948) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for MDZ021>025. Extreme Cold Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for MDZ021>025. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for MDZ023>025. NC...Extreme Cold Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for NCZ012>014-030. Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday evening for NCZ015>017-031-032-102. VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for VAZ099. Extreme Cold Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093- 095>100-509>525. Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for VAZ092-093. Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday evening for VAZ095>100-524-525. Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon for VAZ060-061-065>069-079-087. Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for VAZ076>078-080>086-088>090-512>520-522-523. MARINE...Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for ANZ630-631-650-652-654. Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for ANZ632>634-638-656-658. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652. && $$ |
| #1258472 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:33 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 224 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 218 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 - An arctic airmass filters into the local area Friday afternoon and lingers through Sunday. Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills are expected each night, with very little heating expected on Saturday. - Gusty winds are expected on Saturday across the area, with gusts potentially as high as 35-40 mph in spots. - Hazardous marine conditions are expected to impact our local marine zones Friday night through through Sunday morning. Winds to gale force are likely, along with the potential for low water levels in our bays and sounds and the possibility of a light freezing spray Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 218 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 For the remainder of today through tomorrow morning, zonal flow aloft will prevail, along with light onshore flow at the surface. This will allow for slightly warmer temperatures, with highs today in the mid to upper 50s, and possibly the lower 60s tomorrow. Lows tonight should generally remain above freezing with lows ranging from the low 30s inland to the low 40s along the coast. The pattern begins to change late tomorrow afternoon and into the weekend as an anomalously strong upper trough deepens over the southeast US. Ensembles continue to suggest that height anomalies over the southeast US will be over 5 standard deviations below normal for this time of year, which is an incredibly rare feat. This deep trough will help to send a powerful arctic front through the area sometime late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. A few light showers cannot be ruled out prior to the arrival of the front due to strong forcing and limited moisture pooling. With how light this rainfall is expected to be, and with how dry and windy we will get behind the front, we are not anticipating any black ice issues. Temperatures Friday night are expected to crash into the upper teens to low 20s west of I-65 and mid to upper 20s for areas east. Very tight pressure gradient behind the front will allow for winds to increase to around 15-25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph in spots. Pairing this with the very cold temperatures, wind chills will likely drop into the single digits for many interior areas Saturday morning and lower teens for coastal counties. As we go through the day on Saturday, winds are expected to increase even further as a northerly low-level jet develops. The cold, sinking airmass should help to bring down gustier winds from this jet to the surface, possibly allowing for winds to frequently gust to around 35-40 mph. If trends continue and confidence in these gustier winds increase, we may need to issue a Wind Advisory for portions of the local area. These strong, cold winds will also prevent us from warming much. In fact, some interior zones on Saturday may not get above freezing. Highs will range from the low 30s inland to the upper 30s along the coast. Factoring in the gusty winds, wind chills during the day will likely only remain in the upper teens to lower 20s! Our coldest night of the season comes Saturday night when lows plummet into the middle to upper teens, with low 20s along the immediate coast. With these forecasted temperatures, we could actually get pretty close to records Sunday morning (Feb 1st record lows - KMOB: 17; KPNS: 20). Global ensembles and NBM probabilities give a roughly 10-20% chance of KMOB reaching this record, and a 50- 60% chance of KPNS reaching this record. Would not be surprised to see these probabilities increase as CAM guidance gets into range. Winds Sunday morning will still remain rather elevated, helping to bring single digit wind chills to the entire local area. An extreme Cold Watch is in effect from Friday night all the way through Sunday morning. Residents and visitors are urged to make preparations to protect people, plants, pets, and pipes from this upcoming cold weather. Temperatures slowly start to moderate Sunday and especially into early next week as the upper trough lifts into the western Atlantic and high pressure pushes to the east of the local area. Lows will likely rise above freezing Tuesday night and highs by Wednesday should reach the lower 60s. /96 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 218 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 A light onshore flow is beginning to develop this afternoon and will linger into tonight. Strong offshore flow with gale force wind gusts will develop Friday night through Saturday night as an arctic cold front blasts through the region, with seas as high as 10-12 feet well offshore. Winds and seas will decrease on Sunday. We are beginning to become increasingly concerned about two additional hazards this weekend for marine interests. The first is the potential for very low water levels in our local area bays and sounds due to the strong northerly winds expected. Guidance suggests that water levels may be as low as 3-4 feet below MHHW (potentially as low as 4.5 feet in Mobile Bay) at low tide on Saturday morning and Sunday morning. The second potential hazard is the possibility of freezing spray Saturday night, especially over Mobile Bay. Air temperatures dropping into the low to mid 20s, along with sustained winds around 25-30 knots, could lead to light icing concerns. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 38 60 25 35 / 0 10 0 0 Pensacola 43 62 28 37 / 0 10 0 0 Destin 46 61 29 38 / 10 10 0 10 Evergreen 33 58 23 32 / 0 20 0 0 Waynesboro 33 53 19 31 / 0 20 0 0 Camden 32 53 21 30 / 0 20 0 0 Crestview 34 62 26 34 / 0 10 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for ALZ051>060-261>266. FL...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for FLZ201>206. MS...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...Gale Warning from 6 PM Friday to midnight CST Saturday night for GMZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 10 AM CST Sunday for GMZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 10 AM CST Sunday for GMZ633>636. Gale Warning from 6 PM Friday to 10 AM CST Sunday for GMZ650-655- 670-675. && $$ |
| #1258471 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:24 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 311 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Rain chances will increase tonight and Friday. -A strong cold front will blast through the Florida Keys on Saturday, with a line of showers expected along and just ahead of the frontal passage. -Very cold and windy conditions are expected Saturday evening through at least Monday morning. A Wind Advisory and/or a Cold Weather Advisory may be required for portions or all of the Keys. && .MARINE... Issued at 311 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Breezes across the coastal waters north of the island chain have substantially slackened to light to gentle. Meanwhile, moderate to occasionally fresh breezes persist across the Hawk Channel and Straits of Florida waters. Breezes will freshen slightly overnight into Friday. This will be due to a developing surface feature that will form along the Cuban coast and extend northeast into the Straits of Florida. In addition, better moisture will be able to pool northward across a larger portion of the Florida Keys and surrounding coast waters, increasing our rain chances. This feature is separate and independent from the next incoming cold front on Saturday. Confidence is very high that this front will be bring gale-force winds during the afternoon on Saturday and continuing into Sunday. Breezes will slacken Sunday evening through Monday, however, marine hazards are likely to continue. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 311 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 VFR conditions expected throughout most of the forecast period. A weak weather system will begin developing off the north coast of Cuba late tonight allowing for moisture to surge back north across the island terminals. Rain will likely move in close to midnight, or 05Z/Friday and linger through the morning, gradually dissipating from west to east. Confidence is not high enough at this point to include mentions of MVFR CIGs at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 500 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Synoptic-scale geopotential height analysis continues to depict a stubborn omega blocking pattern extending across the CONUS. A strong ridge continues to bridge over the western third of the United States, with a series of shortwave troughs pivoting to the west in the eastern North Pacific and over the Eastern Seaboard to the east of the ridge. Meanwhile, at the surface, a stationary front extends from the Yucatan northeastward to the central North Atlantic, with a sprawling area of high pressure over the Gulf States. The interaction of the high with the frontal boundary continues to support moderate to occasionally fresh northerly breezes across the Florida Keys at this early morning hour. Widespread mid-level cloud cover, in combination with the elevated winds, has limited the diurnal temperature signal for most island communities, with temperatures currently in the mid to upper 50s, only a few degrees cooler than the well below normal maxima observed Wedneday afternoon. For today through Friday, the aforementioned stationary front will slowly drift northward. Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure may form along this front, drifting northeastward towards the Bahamas late tonight and Friday. Isentropic analysis on the 290K surface supports large-scale ascent at around 850 mb, with forecast soundings depicting ample boundary layer moisture and decent veering (warm advection). This seems to support a period of scattered light to moderate showers in the vicinity of the Florida Keys for these forecast periods, consistent with most available convective allowing model (CAM) guidance. Elected to nudge measurable rain chances to mid-level chance levels (30-40%) for tonight and Friday. Our attention then quickly turns to the weekend. Global ensemble mean and member fields are in fantastic agreement that a shortwave trough diving into the Mid-Atlantic will support rapid surface cyclogenesis off the Carolina Coast Saturday and Sunday. This is a textbook setup for an arctic invasion for the Florida Peninsula. All available numerical weather prediction and statistical guidance suggests temperatures plummeting Saturday evening through Monday into levels the Florida Keys have not seen since around 2010. The tight pressure gradient of the cyclone off the Carolinas interacting with building high pressure in the wake of the front will support very windy conditions. Coupled with the cool temperatures, rare Cold Weather Advisories may be required for portions or all of the Florida Keys Saturday night and Sunday night, with wind chills easily dipping into the 30s. As the large-scale synoptic pattern (at least temporarily) flattens by the middle to the latter part of next week, temperatures will slowly moderate closer to near-normal levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 61 67 62 69 / 40 40 20 70 Marathon 61 68 60 67 / 40 50 20 60 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1258470 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:21 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 317 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to storm total snowfall forecast, with amounts decreasing across the northern half of the area. Blizzard wording has been added to the Winter Storm Watch along the coast. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued tonight for the Maryland Eastern Shore and Accomack County, VA. An Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for the entire forecast area Saturday night into Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) High confidence that a strong winter storm impacts the region Friday night into Sunday. Significant accumulating snowfall, blowing and drifting snow due to strong winds, coastal flooding, and significant marine impacts are expected. The highest confidence is across south and southeastern portions of the area. There will likely be a very sharp gradient in total snowfall amounts, roughly along the US-360 corridor (potentially through the Richmond Metro). 2) A quick burst of light to moderate snow is possible Friday afternoon and evening ahead of the main winter storm, especially across portions of central and south central Virginia. Due to the very cold temperatures, any snow could quickly accumulate on surfaces, including roadways. This is a low confidence, but potentially high impact event. 3) Well below normal temperatures remain through early next week, keeping localized impacts (i.e icy roads) in place through the weekend. The coldest air wind chills are expected Saturday night into Sunday morning and an Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for the entire forecast area. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect tonight for portions of the Maryland and Virginia Eastern Shore. && .DISCUSSION... As of 315 PM EST Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...High confidence that a strong winter storm impacts the region Friday night into Sunday. Significant accumulating snowfall, blowing and drifting snow due to strong winds, coastal flooding, and significant marine impacts are expected. The highest confidence is across south and southeastern portions of the area. There will likely be a very sharp gradient in total snowfall amounts, roughly along the US-360 corridor (potentially through the Richmond Metro). Disagreement still remains higher than what is typically seen during this time range (especially on the NW side) amongst the deterministic and ensemble guidance in regards to total snow amounts/locations of the higher snow amounts across the area. The main mode of disagreement continues to be the battle zone between drier air from the N/NW associated with a very strong area of high pressure (~1045 mb) over the Plains, and an intense low pressure system developing off the SE coast late Friday night/Saturday. The disagreements in regards to snow amounts can be seen well in the probabilistic snowfall range amounts. If we use Richmond as an example, the 25th percentile shows 1" and the 75th percentile shows 8". For Norfolk, the ranges are a bit "closer" with the 25th being 6" and the 75th being 10". Diving into the individual models/ensembles, the ECMWF/EPS has actually expanded the higher snow amounts across the south and southeast compared to some of the previous runs, with a very sharp cutoff north (unfortunately right near the Richmond metro). The Canadian has also moved a touch north with the ~3-6" amounts, but keeps the 6"+ amounts mainly confined to the southeast. Finally, the GFS/GEFS has trended south with the highest amounts (especially compared to the 00z/29 run), keeping a majority of the 6"+ amounts across the far south/southeast and the overall highest amounts just south of the CWA across NC. Finally, we are just starting to come into range of the CAMs which may provide a bit more clarity this evening and tonight. For now, the forecast resembles a blend between the previous forecast and the latest model guidance. Overall, snow amounts were lowered ~1-2" across the forecast area this afternoon, with amounts ranging from 0.5-2" across northwestern portions of the forecast area, to ~2-5" through the Richmond metro to the Tri- Cities, to 4-7" across south central Virginia over to Eastern Shore, to 7-12+" across southeast Virginia (Hampton Roads) into northeast North Carolina. One trend that continues in most of the models is a "piece" of the surface high over the Plains ridging SE into the local area Friday into early Saturday, with low pressure across the eastern Gulf coast showing an inverted trough extending north into the southern Appalachians. This has trended to an initial overrunning precip event (all snow). For the Piedmont, this portion of the storm may account for a majority of the snowfall. SLR values will be very high, 15:1 to 18:1 so even a relatively low amount of QPF could lead to a significant accumulation (which will be efficient on area roads given temperatures well below freezing). Part 2 of the storm gets amped up later Saturday, and is expected to peak Saturday night into early Sunday. The models (even the GFS) are all in pretty good agreement that the digging upper trough becomes cutoff as it drops SE from the TN Valley (at 12Z/Sat), to the GA-SC coastal plain by Saturday evening (00Z/Sun). The resulting low is forecast to deepen by as much as 15 mb/6 hr Sat evening as it drifts NE off the coast. Therefore, in addition to heavy snowfall, which is of highest confidence across SE VA and NE NC, very strong winds are likely to develop for coastal areas, with winds rather strong even for inland zones. Strong winds and a significant snowfall are expected within the Watch, with highest confidence across southern/SE VA and NE NC. Added blizzard wording to the Winter Storm Watch for portions of Hampton Roads and coastal northeast North Carolina and Blizzard Warning may likely be needed for these locations. Winds may gust to 50-60 mph along the coast Saturday night into Sunday. Please keep a close eye on the forecast over the next 24 hours, with forecast confidence remaining below average for this timeframe. A ~50 mile shift in the coastal low will have drastic impacts to the final snowfall amounts. Additional messaging and headlines will need adjustments over the next few forecast cycles. KEY MESSAGE 2...A quick burst of light to moderate snow is possible Friday afternoon and evening ahead of the main winter storm, especially across portions of central and south central Virginia. Due to the very cold temperatures, any snow could quickly accumulate on surfaces, including roadways. This is a low confidence, but potentially high impact event. Latest CAMs, including the 18z HRRR and NAM 3km show the potential for light snow developing across areas south of I-64 Friday afternoon/evening. If snow does fall, there is a possibility (~20 to 40% probability) of accumulations up to 0.5". Air temperatures will be well below freezing during this timeframe, allowing for efficient accumulation on all surfaces. While this scenario is fairly low confidence, there could be significant travel impacts if it does happen. KEY MESSAGE 3...Well below normal temperatures remain through early next week, keeping localized impacts (i.e icy roads) in place through the weekend. The coldest air wind chills are expected Saturday night into Sunday morning and an Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for the entire forecast area. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect tonight for portions of the Maryland and Virginia Eastern Shore. Tonight will again be very cold, though winds are expected to be light as high pressure extends into the area, keeping wind chills near ambient temps that will mostly be in the teens or mid to upper single digits NW. However, there will be enough of a light breeze tonight across portions of the Eastern Shore to allow for wind chills to drop into Cold Weather Advisory territory. As a result, another Cold Weather Advisory has been issued tonight into Friday AM for the Maryland Eastern Shore and Accomack County, VA where wind chills as low as 0 are expected. Friday will see highs struggle to get out of the mid 20s for much of the northern half of the area. Saturday will be even colder with highs in the low to mid 20s for most. An Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for Saturday night into Sunday morning where the combination of a strong N to NW wind and air temperatures in the low to mid teens will result in wind chills as low as 0 to 10 below. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1210 PM EST Thursday... VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Skies will remain FEW-SCT250 today. Winds are NW at 6-10kt with a few gusts to 18kt along the coast. Winds become NNW to NNE this evening and overnight. Mid level clouds will develop during the later morning to mid-day hours of Friday. Outlook: A winter storm will impact the area later Friday through Sunday. Snow could start across the Piedmont, including FVX and possibly RIC (though lower confidence), Friday afternoon. It`s then expected to spread eastward to include most terminals overnight into Saturday. May become +SN with low VIS Sat night into Sun morning. Winds will also become strong later Sat, with the highest gusts closer to the coast. Widespread flight restrictions are possible with this storm. && .MARINE... As of 155 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories in effect for all local waters this morning. - Storm Watches issued for the Ches. Bay, Lower James, all coastal waters, and the Currituck Sound starting Sat afternoon. Gale Watches issued for the upper tidal rivers. - A Freezing Spray Advisory has been issued for the Chesapeake Bay, coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light, and the upper rivers from tonight into Thu. Additional freezing spray is likely this weekend. Another push of CAA behind a cold front has triggered another surge of northerly winds, primarily over the Chesapeake Bay. Latest obs indicate winds of 15-25kt with a few of the higher sites showing gusts up to 30kt. Similar conditions are present over the rivers and Currituck Sound, but with gusts only 20-25kt. So far, winds are under-performing over the coastal waters with latest obs showing 10- 15kt. SCAs are in effect for all of the marine zones. Despite the under-performance, will leave the SCAs in place for now over the coastal waters in case there`s a sunrise surge as there often is in these scenarios. Otherwise, expecting gradually diminishing NW winds through the day and into tomorrow, though remaining breezy. Seas will be 3-4ft today, then 2-3ft tomorrow. Waves in the bay 2-3ft today and 1-2ft tomorrow. Attention then turns to the increasingly likely significant coastal storm over the weekend. There is high confidence in a strong surface low forming along and traveling up the coast early Saturday through Sunday. The models still have some variation in exact track of the low, but do consistently depict a very tight pressure gradient and drastic pressure changes over a short time period. Still sticking with blended guidance at this point since the high res models are still mostly out of range. this morning`s forecast package has not changed much since yesterday afternoon`s forecast, but am feeling more confident in it. NNE look to gradually increase through the day Saturday, reaching gale force gusts across most waters Saturday afternoon. Winds continue to increase Sat night, then peak Sunday morning. This peak would be 35-45kt over the bay, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters with gusts 50-60kt. The upper rivers would be a bit lower, but still well within Gale range. This forecast is supported by local wind probs, which have 80-85% for 48kt+ wind gusts for the southern coastal waters and 50-70% in the bay and northern coastal waters. Did go ahead and put up Storm Watches for the Bay, lower James, coastal waters, and Currituck Sound starting Saturday afternoon and going into Sunday night. Went with Gale Watches for the upper rivers starting Sat evening. Seas during this period will be 8-12ft. Waves in the bay climb to 7-8ft. Lastly, periods of light freezing spray are expected through the end of the week due to cold water/air temperatures and gusty winds. Moderate freezing spray over the weekend will likely require Freezing Spray Advisories. Tides/Coastal Flooding... Given the strength of the low coinciding with higher astronomical tides, widespread coastal flooding is increasingly likely this weekend. Early indications are for moderate to locally major coastal flooding across the Mouth of the Bay and the Virginia Beach and Currituck Outer Banks coastline, with minor to moderate coastal flooding possible elsewhere. With a strong northerly wind, locations in the upper bay could actually see low water during this period. The worst coastal flooding conditions look to be Sat night into Sun. && .CLIMATE... Record Low Max Temperatures for Sat Jan 31: - RIC: 23 (1948) - ORF: 25 (1936) - SBY: 24 (2019) - ECG: 29 (1965) Daily Record Snowfall for Sat Jan 31 and Sun Feb 1: - Date: Sat Jan 31 Sun Feb 1 - RIC: 7.0" (1948) 3.1" (1948) - ORF: 4.0" (1980) 4.0" (1910) - SBY: 4.0" (2010) 4.0" (1962) - ECG: 5.0" (1980) 7.0" (1948) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for MDZ021>025. Extreme Cold Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for MDZ021>025. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for MDZ023>025. NC...Extreme Cold Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for NCZ012>014-030. Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday evening for NCZ015>017-031-032-102. VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for VAZ099. Extreme Cold Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093- 095>100-509>525. Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for VAZ092-093. Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday evening for VAZ095>100-524-525. Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon for VAZ060-061-065>069-079-087. Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for VAZ076>078-080>086-088>090-512>520-522-523. MARINE...Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for ANZ630-631-650-652-654. Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for ANZ632>634-638-656-658. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652. && $$ |
| #1258469 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:09 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 300 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 258 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 - Another intense arctic blast likely arrives by Saturday with more hard freezes and dangerous wind chills returning. Wind chills in the single digits are becoming increasingly likely (70 to 90% chance). Continue to monitor this potential for dangerous cold as we approach the weekend. - Given cold temperatures action to protect vulnerable pipes, pets, plants, needs to be completed by Friday evening. - There is a high (90%) chance of gale conditions over the waters late Friday into Saturday. Very dangerous marine conditions are expected with gusts up to 40 knots and building seas. There is also a high chance of widespread 30 to 40 mph gusts across land areas which could cause sporadic power outages. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Friday) Issued at 258 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 A benign pattern will be in place across the forecast area today and into Friday as surface high pressure moves east over the region. The slow warming trend that started yesterday will continue into Friday. However, we do not expect the warmer conditions to last long, as the next significant cold front will be on our doorstep by Friday night. Ahead of this next front, isolated to scattered showers are possible across the region Friday afternoon. Given the limited moisture content ahead of the front, amounts will be very light and spotty. Forecast high temperatures will be around the upper 50s and low 60s. These values will be the warmest we can expect to see until at least next Tuesday or Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 258 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 The long-term period is likely to bring some of the most significant cold weather the area has seen in years. This cold will rival similar cold snaps observed in late December 2022, early January 2012, mid January 2011, and early January 2010. The record low for Tallahassee on Sunday, February 1, is 20F, which was last set in 1977. The long-term period starts Friday night as the arctic front begins to race into the forecast area behind a departing surface low. This area of low pressure will steadily strengthen as it moves into the western Atlantic and a strong arctic high moves in behind it. As this crashes into the deepening low pressure, the pressure gradient will rapidly increase across the tri-state region on Saturday. Not only will this facilitate the advection of an arctic air mass south into the region, but it will also bring strong winds across our land and marine zones. For marine zone impacts, please view the marine discussion below. Across our land areas, the tightening pressure gradient will allow widespread 20 to 25 mph sustained winds, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible on Saturday, especially across unsheltered regions free of tree cover. Given these winds, sporadic power outages are possible. These gusts should continue well into the late afternoon hours before the pressure gradient slowly weakens into Sunday morning. Despite the gradient weakening by the evening hours, sustained winds will likely remain around 10 to 15 mph through the overnight hours of Saturday into Sunday. This leads to our primary weather concern: the dangerous cold. After a warm afternoon in the upper 50s and low 60s on Friday, temperatures will rapidly drop Friday night into Saturday afternoon as the arctic air mass moves in. By sunrise Saturday morning, temperatures will likely have dropped into the upper 20s across southeast Alabama and the Panhandle, and into the low to mid-30s across southern Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. Despite increasing sunshine into the afternoon, temperatures will likely not warm through the day, as the warming influence of the sun is counteracted by continuing cold air advection. Most locations are likely to see only a pause in the cool-down in the early afternoon, especially across our Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia counties. With the winds accompanying the cold, wind chill values will likely remain in the teens and low 20s all Saturday across southeast Alabama and will struggle to climb above freezing across the remainder of our forecast area. As the sun sets, continued cold air advection will allow the coldest air of the season to settle in place Saturday night into Sunday morning. As winds remain elevated around 10 to 15 mph overnight, expect wind chills to plummet into the single digits by midnight Sunday. A few locations in the colder spots may flirt with near-zero wind chills around sunrise Sunday, especially if winds remain higher than forecast. These wind chills can cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 to 60 minutes, so be sure to bundle up with hats and gloves if spending any time outside. Air temperatures region-wide will drop into the mid-teens across southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Panhandle Saturday night into Sunday morning. Temperatures in the mid to upper teens can be expected across the Florida Big Bend. Because many locations, especially across the northwest portions of our forecast area, will see 12 to 15 hours of hard-freeze conditions, those with outdoor plumbing, plants, and pets could be severely impacted. Actions to protect these entities should be completed by Friday night and Saturday morning. Given these conditions, an extreme cold watch has been issued for the entire forecast area from Saturday afternoon into Sunday afternoon. It`s important to note that this watch covers the period of most concern for damaging cold. However, a cold weather advisory will likely be needed for Saturday morning and early afternoon to account for wind chills in the upper teens and low 20s. The chill will remain on Sunday as afternoon highs only reach the low to mid-40s. Another night of dangerous cold is expected as overnight lows drop into the low 20s. While the duration of the hard freeze will not be as long, these freezing temperatures follow significantly cold weather, so proactive precautions must still be taken Sunday night into Monday. Given lower wind speeds, wind chill values will not be nearly as cold and will generally align with the forecast air temperatures. A slow warm-up begins Monday, with highs slowly climbing into the 50s and then the low 60s by Tuesday or Wednesday. While this system is forecast to be dry for much of our area, we cannot rule out a few snow flurries or a light dusting of snow across our northeastern zones Saturday afternoon. This will be associated with wrap- around precipitation as the surface low strengthens. Temperatures will be cold enough to support flurries or a light rain-snow mix across some of our Georgia counties. If any accumulations occur, they would most likely be north and east of a Tifton to Albany line and limited to a dusting on grassy surfaces. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 VFR conditions continue through much of the TAF period as some high cirrus floats over the region. A weak disturbance slides west to east over the area Friday morning, with the best chance of a quick shower or two in and around KECP. Elsewhere, VFR to MVFR ceilings are forecast to continue through Friday morning. Light easterly to northeasterly winds continue through early Friday morning before turning more southerly ahead of the weak disturbance. && .MARINE... Issued at 258 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will continue today before clocking around out of the east to southeast on Friday. An area of low pressure will move over the marine area Friday a bring few showers. Behind the low, winds will become northerly to northwesterly and quickly increase to near gale force by early Saturday morning. Gusts of 40 to 45 kt are becoming increasingly likely, especially in the offshore waters where chances are now medium to high (60 to 90%). This will result in widespread gale conditions across the region, and the Gale watches remains in effect. Given the conditions, it`s likely a small craft advisory will be needed for the St Andrews Bay as well. Conditions will remain around gale levels through through early Sunday morning before dropping to below advisory levels late Sunday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 258 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will continue today before clocking around out of the east to southeast on Friday. An area of low pressure will move over the marine area Friday a bring few showers. Behind the low, winds will become northerly to northwesterly and quickly increase to near gale force by early Saturday morning. Gusts of 40 to 45 kt are becoming increasingly likely, especially in the offshore waters where chances are now medium to high (60 to 90%). This will result in widespread gale conditions across the region, and the Gale watches remains in effect. Given the conditions, it`s likely a small craft advisory will be needed for the St Andrews Bay as well. Conditions will remain around gale levels through through early Sunday morning before dropping to below advisory levels late Sunday night. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 258 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Very little precipitation is forecast over the next 7 days, and there are no flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 34 59 35 41 / 0 20 20 0 Panama City 42 63 33 41 / 10 20 20 10 Dothan 34 58 28 35 / 10 20 10 10 Albany 30 57 30 38 / 0 20 10 10 Valdosta 32 60 33 44 / 0 20 20 10 Cross City 33 66 38 51 / 0 10 20 10 Apalachicola 42 61 35 42 / 10 20 20 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118- 127-128-134-326-426. GA...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161. AL...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning for ALZ065>069. GM...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for GMZ730-755-765-775. Gale Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1258468 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:06 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 252 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Cold Weather Advisories for dangerously cold wind chills were expanded to include Cape Cod tonight into Fri morning. Winter Storm Watches were issued for the Cape and Islands for late Sat night through Sunday night. However, latest trends favor a more offshore storm track and somewhat less impacts across southern New England. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerously cold wind chills tonight into Friday morning, and possibly Fri night into Sat morning. - Still a large degree of uncertainty surrounding a winter storm Sunday into Sunday night. Strong gusty winds and accumulating snow are certainly within the realm of possibility for the Cape and Islands. - Minor to moderate coastal flooding possible Sunday into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerously cold wind chills tonight into Friday morning, and possibly Fri night into Sat morning. A reinforcing shot of arctic air will move into New Eng tonight and Friday as a northern stream trough drops south from Canada. The trough passage will be accompanied by a surge of gusty WNW winds to 15-25 mph tonight into Fri morning. This coupled with lows of -5 to +5F will result in wind chills of -10 to -20F for much of SNE, with the coldest readings over the higher elevations where wind chills down to -20 to -25F are expected. We will continue the cold weather advisory for dangerous wind chills for much of SNE, except the Cape and Islands where wind chills will fall a bit short of -10F criteria. Winds drop off a bit Fri night but low temps are expected to be even colder with lows zero to -10F away from the immediate coast. There will be enough wind to generate similar wind chills of -10 to -20F late Fri night into Sat morning. Cold weather advisories will likely need to be extended. Dry weather expected through Sat, with mostly sunny days and mainly clear nights. The column is quite dry through Sat. KEY MESSAGE 2...Still a large degree of uncertainty surrounding a winter storm Sunday into Sunday night. Strong gusty winds and accumulating snow are certainly within the realm of possibility for the Cape and Islands. Ensemble and deterministic guidance continues to indicate a coastal storm moving off the NC/SC coast, rapidly intensifying as it moves north and east. Previous guidance has had a large amount of uncertainty regarding where exactly the low may pass in relation to southern New England, with some models taking a more northerly track and some a more southerly. The latest suite of guidance continues to be highly variable regarding the potential for accumulating snow and strong gusty winds Sunday into Sunday night. The 12z ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian ensembles have trended the general location of the surface low further south and east than previous runs, with the latest Grand Ensemble and subsequent clusters showing a positively- tilted upper trough, possibly leading to the latest southeastward trend. If the storm tracks further south and east, the highest winds and snowfall totals would be confined to the southern Cape and Islands, while a sharp gradient sets up somewhere over the South Shore, leading to significantly decreased chances of Boston, Providence, and the I-95 corridor seeing moderate impacts. GFS and Canadian ensembles are showing PWATs >0.33" over the far southeastern portion of the Cape and Nantucket, with a sharp, decreasing gradient over the northern portion of the Cape. The ECMWF ensemble has taken a more moisture-loaded approach, bringing PWATs ranging from 0.33" along the I-95 corridor to 0.66" on Nantucket. NBM 5.0 probabilities of seeing 6" of snow in 24 hours over the Cape and Islands have decreased from 50%-65% last night to 40%-50% with the latest run, with probabilites for the I-95 corridor dropping from 35%-50% to near 25%. The latest WSSI-P probabilities for Moderate Impacts has also significantly decreased to 40% over the Cape and Islands and 20% across the I-95 corridor. After coordinating with the neighboring offices and WPC, felt moderately confident in issuing a Winter Storm Watch for the Cape and Islands beginning after midnight Sunday morning. Regardless of how far southeast the low passes, expecting a wide- reaching, intense pressure gradient to whip up winds Sunday. Latest NBM probabilites of reaching 55mph winds gusts (storm force winds) across the inner waters range from 45% to 65% and >75% across the outer waters, and these probs have remained steady over the last 24 hours. Therefore, felt confident in issuing Storm Watches for the outer waters, including Cape Cod Bay. KEY MESSAGE 3...Minor to moderate coastal flooding possible Sunday into Monday. A Coastal Flood Watch has been issued for the eastern Massachusetts coastline Sunday into Monday. High astronomical tides combined with at least a 1 to 3 foot storm surge and strong N/NE winds will bring the potential for minor to perhaps moderate coastal flooding along the eastern Massachusetts coast during high tides Sunday morning, Sunday evening, and Monday around midday. Based upon the projected offshore track of the coastal storm, the highest winds and storm surge should be focused closer to Cape Cod, Nantucket, and Marthas Vineyard where the higher chances of seeing moderate flooding exists. However, building seas of 20-25 feet offshore will add additional impacts to the ocean exposed coastline from Plymouth County north to the Merrimack River, so despite lower water levels, those areas could still see moderate impacts. Additionally, the long overwater fetch should result in significant beach and dune erosion, especially in areas that have been hard hit in recent years including Newburyport/Plum Island, Sandwich, Chatham, and Edgartown. Should the storm trend farther offshore, the threat of coastal flooding would decrease, but given the high astronomical tides it is reasonable to expect at least minor coastal flooding. A trend closer to New England would raise the odds of moderate flooding over much of the coastline, but the chances of reaching major flood impacts would still remain very low. As a reminder, minor flooding refers to shallow flooding up to 1 foot deep and can result in temporary road closures on more vulnerable coastal roads. Moderate flooding refers to flooding 1 to 3 feet deep and can cause more widespread road closures, damage to shorefront property, and debris on coastal roads from large waves. Vehicles left in flood prone areas can also be flooded. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Friday Night...High confidence. VFR. Lower bases between 020-040 across the outer Cape and possibly Nantucket as well later today. WNW winds become gusty overnight and continue into Friday. Winds expected to shift more W and diminish Friday. KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday: VFR. Saturday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Slight chance SN. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 50 kt. Chance SN. Sunday Night: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 50 kt. Chance SN. Monday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Tuesday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. * Moderate to heavy freezing spray developing on the waters tonight into Friday * Dangerous marine conditions developing Sunday A period of WNW gusts to 25-30 kt will develop tonight into Friday, then diminishing wind Fri night. The gusty winds will be accompanied by a reinforcing shot of arctic air which will result in widespread moderate freezing spray with areas of heavy freezing spray over some of the nearshore waters. Significant accretion of ice is expected on vessels over the waters. Freezing spray advisories and heavy freezing spray warnings remain in effect. Our attention turns to a powerful ocean storm which tracks well south and east of the waters on Sunday. Potential for storm force NE gusts to 50-55 kt over the outer waters peaking during Sunday, with 40-50 kt gusts over nearshore waters. Seas expected to build to 20+ ft on the waters east of Cape Cod resulting in dangerous conditions for mariners. In additions, areas of light to moderate freezing spray will develop Sat night though Sun night. Outlook /Monday through Tuesday/... Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 20 ft. Freezing spray. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Friday for CTZ002>004. MA...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Friday for MAZ002>022-026. Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024. Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through late Sunday night for MAZ022>024. RI...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Friday for RIZ001>007. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ230-236. Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for ANZ230. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Friday for ANZ231>235-237-251. Freezing Spray Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ231-235>237-250-251-254-256. Storm Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for ANZ231-232-250-254>256. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ232>234-255. Gale Watch from late Saturday night through late Sunday night for ANZ233>235-237. Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday evening for ANZ236. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ250- 254>256. Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Monday morning for ANZ251. && $$ |
| #1258467 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:03 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 151 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold front pushes through this evening, but Arctic air really doesn`t filter in until Friday night. - Cold Weather Advisory in effect for all locations minus the barrier islands overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Will likely - Hard freezes for northern parts of the area Friday night & most of the region Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1239 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 The cold front is set to arrive to the Brazos Valley this evening, move through the Houston Metro around 9 PM, and be offshore around midnight. Cold, Arctic air will funnel into SE Texas Friday, bringing temperatures down into the 40s to mid 50s. The effects of the Arctic air will be more prominent during the overnight hours Friday into Saturday morning as areas north of I-10 drop into the 20s (with some locations in the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley entering hard freeze territory). Elsewhere, temperatures will be in the upper 20s to low 30s. Wind chill values will bottom out in the teens for the northern half of the region while areas south of the I-10 corridor will see wind chills drop into the low to mid 20s. Most of the area, with the exception of the barrier islands, will reach into the advisory criteria; therefore, a Cold Weather Advisory will be in effect early Saturday morning through 10 AM. Cold air will continue Saturday with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s across the area. Saturday night into Sunday is projected to be the coldest night of the weekend as temperatures dive into the teens across portions of the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley and into the low to mid 20s elsewhere. Wind Chill values will drop into the teens to low 20s north of I-10 and into the 20s for south of I-10. A Cold Weather Advisory will likely be needed for Saturday night into Sunday morning as well, and with temperatures dropping that low, expect most of the area north of I-10 to experience a hard freeze as well. High pressure will move off to the east on Sunday, reintroducing the warming trend that will continue into early next week. Onshore flow will bring moisture back into the area just in time for another front later in the forecast period. Bailey && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 507 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Patchy fog will generally bring MVFR to IFR FLs early today with some spots potentially reaching LIFR briefly. A few areas are near or at the freezing mark, thus freezing fog will be possible in some spots early today. Fog should clear later this morning with VFR conditions returning. A dry cold front should push through the area this evening, moving off the coast around midnight. Breezy north to northwest winds develop behind the front. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 1239 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Light winds and low seas will prevail through the day. The next cold front will push off the coast late this evening followed by moderate north winds and building seas. With a reinforcing shot of cold, Arctic air anticipated Friday night, winds and seas should further increase into Saturday, then gradually decrease Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the bays from 2 AM through noon Friday and for the Gulf Waters from 2 AM Friday through 2 PM Saturday. On the bays, already low astronomical tides will produce some negative water levels this week, even more so Friday night into the weekend with stronger north winds in place. Low Water Advisories are already in place. Bailey && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 65 33 52 26 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 67 38 54 32 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 63 43 54 36 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM CST Saturday for TXZ163- 164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338. GM...Low Water Advisory until midnight CST Saturday night for GMZ330- 335. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to noon CST Friday for GMZ330-335. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 2 PM CST Saturday for GMZ350-355-370-375. && $$ |
| #1258465 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:21 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 216 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - An Extreme Cold Watch and a Freeze Watch are now in effect for much of the local area Saturday night through Sunday morning. - A Gale Watch is now in effect for all coastal waters from Saturday morning through Sunday morning. - Extremely hazardous marine conditions and a high risk of strong rip currents at area beaches this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1248 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 High pressure over the region will shift eastward tonight into Friday as our next cold front approaches, leading to another cool night tonight, though it will be several degrees warmer than last night. Highs on Friday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, then the front will then move through late Friday night into Saturday, bringing some showers, though rainfall amounts will be on the low side once again. The rest of this discussion will be an edited version of the previous, as the mid shift did a great job summarizing the hazards. Bottom line, we are still forecasting a low chance for snow flurries and we are still expecting a plethora of hazards related to cold and wind. A very tight pressure gradient will develop over the eastern Gulf and Florida peninsula Saturday and Saturday night in the wake of the front...a result of the significant pressure difference between the rapidly intensifying coastal storm off the Carolina coast and the strong Canadian high pressure system over the Central Plains. As the cold front moves across the forecast area on Saturday, temperatures will likely be falling (or at best holding steady) across the region during the afternoon hours. Northwest winds of 15 to 25 MPH will develop across west central and southwest Florida with higher gusts likely, especially near the coast. There will be a number of hazards associated with this sequence of events that run from low probability of occurrence to a very high probability of occurrence. Starting with the highest likelihood of occurrence: - Extremely hazardous marine conditions will develop over the weekend and a Gale Watch has been issued for Saturday morning through Sunday morning and this will likely be upgraded in the next day or so. We are also expected a few Storm Force wind gusts across the waters. - The arctic air will usher in the coldest temperatures of the year. A Freeze Watch has been issued for Saturday night into Sunday morning and Freeze Warnings will likely be needed for much of the forecast area both Saturday night and Sunday night. A hard freeze will be possible across the nature coast Saturday night and Sunday night with lows in the lower to mid 20s each night. Temperatures across the interior are expected to be in the mid to upper 20s both nights...with lower to mid 30s near the coast and across southwest Florida. Gusty northwest winds will create wind chills Saturday night in the teens across the nature coast...with single digits possible mainly across Levy and Citrus counties. Wind chills are expected to be in the teens to lower 20s across the interior and generally in the 20s elsewhere. The wind is expected to taper off Sunday night, with wind chills generally about 3 to 5 degrees below the ambient temperature. - Temperatures will be running about 20 to 25 degrees below climatic normals Saturday night through Sunday night. Could see some record low temperatures set Saturday night/Sunday morning across the region...some low max temperature records set on Sunday...and some record low temperatures again Sunday night/Monday morning. - Along area beaches, very strong rip currents are expected to develop Saturday through Sunday. There is also a low to moderate probability of high surf. - The strong northwest winds may also create water levels along the coast from Citrus to northern Pinellas county to run 1 to 2 feet above astronomical normal tide levels Saturday and Saturday night. This is also in the low to moderate probability of occurrence. - The strong winds and CAA over the coastal waters will create a very unstable turbulent boundary layer. Residual low level moisture will likely allow an area of cold air strato-cu to develop over the eastern Gulf on Saturday and Saturday night. With these extreme conditions in place, it would be expected to see a few light showers or sprinkles to develop over the coastal waters...Gulf effect type light showers. The backside or northern extent of the cloud shield could see temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 30s Saturday evening and after midnight...which could allow the light rain showers to become light mixed snow/rain showers or snow showers/flurries. Trajectories would indicate that the clouds may advect locally onshore...with the best chance of seeing frozen precipitation from Citrus to Pinellas/Hillsborough counties. This is a low probability event...but not out of the realm of possibility. It`s common in scenarios like this that drizzle or very light rain gets reported as snow...when in fact surface temperatures don`t support that possibility. Clear skies expected Sunday and Sunday night. Temperatures on Sunday will struggle to climb into the mid to upper 40s across northern and central areas...around 50 to the lower 50s south. Another frigid night Sunday night as mentioned above with most areas away from the coast or extreme southwest Florida in the 20s. Again, record cold temperatures will be possible both Sunday and Sunday night. The airmass will begin to modify a bit on Monday, but still another cold day across the region with high temperatures from the mid 50s north to around 60 south. Subfreezing temperatures again likely Monday night/Tuesday morning across the nature coast, and around freezing to slightly above freezing across the interior...with upper 30s to lower 40s near the coast. The area of high pressure will begin to shift east of the forecast area during the middle of next week with temperatures continuing to modify...but remaining below climatic normals under mostly clear skies each day. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1248 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Winds and seas remain benign with no headlines expected through Friday. A cold front will then move across the waters Friday night into Saturday, with Gale conditions expected Saturday and Saturday night, and we could even see a few gusts to Storm Force (48 kts or greater). Winds will subside starting Sunday night, but seas will likely remain elevated for a longer period of time before they subside and so advisories may still be necessary into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1248 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 After a dry afternoon today, moisture will increase for Friday and Saturday ahead of a cold front. This next front will bring another dry air mass over the region for Sunday into early next week, with elevated Red Flag risk for Sunday as winds will be breezy. Winds then diminish for Monday with no further fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 45 70 51 58 / 0 0 30 30 FMY 48 71 52 63 / 0 10 30 50 GIF 44 73 49 58 / 0 0 20 20 SRQ 45 69 52 62 / 0 0 40 40 BKV 35 70 42 56 / 0 0 30 20 SPG 52 69 55 60 / 0 0 40 40 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco- Polk-Sumter. Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco- DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus- Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Polk-Sumter. Gulf waters...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
| #1258464 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:09 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 157 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, CLIMATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 155 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 - Chilly overnight with warmer, near-normal temperatures Friday afternoon - Very windy conditions develop Saturday with strong wind gusts35 to 45 mph; occasional gusts around 50 mph possible - A rare Extreme Cold Watch and Freeze Watch issued for all of east central Florida Saturday night into Sunday; dangerous wind chill values as low as 7 degrees and a hard freeze likely with lows in the 20s Sunday morning - Gale Watch issued for rapidly deteriorating boating conditions Saturday afternoon and night as winds increase and seas build; strong gale-force gusts are likely && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Now-Friday...While still a bit on the cool side, it is a pleasant afternoon out there as temperatures climb into the 60s. Satellite imagery is absent of clouds over central and east central Florida, allowing for ample sunshine. Temperatures will fall efficiently into the upper 30s to mid 40s in most places overnight (low-mid 50s at the coast), which ranges from 5-10 degrees below normal, on average. Low level cloud cover is forecast to slowly increase on Friday across the Treasure Coast while a few high clouds move across northern portions of the area. Friday will be the last warm day with near-normal temperatures until next Wednesday. Pleasant conditions will provide a prime opportunity to prepare for this weekend`s significantly colder air (Saturday may be too windy...more on that below). There is a low chance for an isolated shower or two across Martin and coastal Saint Lucie counties Friday as coastal trough develops. However, this surface feature will pretty quickly move offshore, leaving drier conditions behind by late afternoon/early evening. Temperatures settle into the 40s and low 50s overnight into early Saturday. Saturday...Big changes are on the way beginning Saturday morning as a strong cold front moves quickly across the Gulf and state of Florida. A developing low pressure system over south Georgia early Saturday morning is forecast to quickly move east over the Atlantic Saturday morning, dragging a cold front into east central Florida around sunrise. PW briefly increase ahead of the front to 1", and with sufficient forcing, isolated to scattered showers are forecast to develop. These showers will move quickly from west to east, with higher chances focused south of Melbourne (from Lake Okeechobee to the Treasure Coast). Rain totals will be very light, generally less that 0.05" to 0.10". Clouds will be around through the frontal passage and shortly thereafter but are likely to clear out fast Saturday afternoon as drier air arrives. The aforementioned surface low is forecast to rapidly deepen offshore of the Carolina Coast Saturday. This will lead to pressure falls and winds strengthening behind the passing cold front. Sustained west-northwest winds 20-30 mph with frequent gusts 35-45 mph are likely (models show 925 winds 35-45+ kt). In fact, there is at least a 20-30% probability of 50+ mph gusts Saturday afternoon and evening. With this in mind, by midday Saturday, it will become increasingly difficult to secure any loose outdoor items or prepare vegetation for the anticipated hard freeze Saturday night. Thus, we encourage residents (and visitors) to make preparations for the cold weather before these strong gusty winds arrive! Temperatures will plummet Saturday afternoon after reaching an earlier high in the mid 50s to mid 60s. By sunset, expect temps to range from the low 40s north of I-4 to the upper 40s/low 50s along the Treasure Coast. A hard freeze is forecast overnight Saturday into Sunday morning, with forecast lows dipping into the low and middle 20s (upper 20s far south). This, combined with gusty northwest winds, will lead to wind chill values in the teens and single digits. With a widespread freeze and extreme cold event increasingly likely, residents, officials, and agricultural operations should begin preparing. People and pets with inadequate shelter or heat will face a risk of frostbite and hypothermia. Exposed pipes may freeze, and some non-native plants and trees will succumb to the elements if not properly protected. The risk to non- cold-hardy plants and palms is much higher due to the wind-driven cold that is expected. With increasing confidence in a widespread hard freeze and dangerously cold wind chills, both a Freeze Watch and an Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for all of east central Florida Saturday night through midday Sunday. To emphasize the rarity of such an event, the last time NWS Melbourne issued a Wind Chill Warning was in January of 2014. Sunday-Wednesday...While winds decrease gradually on Sunday as the nor`easter pulls well and away, temperatures will struggle to reach the mid 40s to low 50s areawide. Combine this with a 10-20 mph wind and wind chills will stay in the upper 30s to low 40s Sunday afternoon. Very dry conditions are forecast, so plenty of sunshine is anticipated. Fire sensitive to critical fire weather conditions may develop as result of the dry conditions and breezy northwest winds (lingering into Monday). Another very cold night is on tap Sunday night into Monday morning, with lows forecast to sink below the freezing mark in most locations. Wind chills retreat into the teens and low 20s as a 5-10 mph northwest wind persists. High pressure builds overhead Tuesday into Wednesday, and an anticipated warmup commences with highs in the 60s Tuesday reaching the upper 60s to low 70s by Wednesday. Each morning will still be on the cold side (30s to low 40s). For additional cold weather support, including probabilities and durations of specific temperatures for your location, visit weather.gov/mlb/coldsupport. && .MARINE... Issued at 155 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Generally favorable boating conditions return to the local waters tonight into Friday as high pressure moves overhead. Light west- northwest winds briefly increase to 10-15 kt offshore Friday afternoon. Seas 2-4 ft. A strong cold front is set to bring a rare and significant cold outbreak to the Florida Peninsula and adjacent Atlantic waters. As the front approaches and moves across the waters during the day Saturday, northwest winds quickly strengthen to 25-35+ kt (likely sustained gale-force) with strong gale-force gusts. For a brief time Saturday night, occasional storm-force gusts cannot be ruled out. Seas build in response, growing to 5-8 ft nearshore and 8-11 ft offshore by sunset Saturday evening. Seas build further, reaching 6- 11 ft nearshore and 10-16 ft offshore by Sunday morning. Seas will be slow to subside early next week, likely remaining hazardous in the Gulf Stream through Monday into early Tuesday, as northwest winds gradually weaken. Thus, a Gale Watch has been issued, beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing through at least midday Sunday. Shower chances return to the Gulf Stream and nearshore Treasure Coast waters Friday as a coastal trough briefly forms, then shifts offshore Friday evening. On Saturday, rain chances increase along and ahead of the strong cold front (particularly over the Gulf Stream and south of Cape Canaveral). && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 1215 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Mostly VFR conditions continue over the next 24 hours. NW/N winds veer NE/ENE during the day 6-12 kts, becoming light/variable to calm this evening/overnight. Winds becoming more WRLY on Fri 5-10 kts. Increasing clouds during the day on Fri, and lowering CIGs along the Treasure Coast. Future shifts may have to monitor for occasional MVFR CIGs here Fri afternoon. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 155 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Sunday, February 1st: RECORD NORMAL RECORD NORMAL DATE LOWS LOWS COOL-HIGHS HIGHS Daytona Beach (DAB) 1-Feb 30 1936 49 47 1980 70 Leesburg (LEE) 1-Feb 30 1979 50 52 1978 71 Sanford (SFB) 1-Feb 30 1965 51 46 1977 72 Orlando (MCO) 1-Feb 28 1936 51 48 1936 73 Melbourne (MLB) 1-Feb 32 1966 52 55 1948 72 Vero Beach (VRB) 1-Feb 29 1966 53 56 1966 74 Fort Pierce (FPR) 1-Feb 32 1909 52 54 1936 74 Monday, February 2nd: RECORD NORMAL RECORD NORMAL DATE LOWS LOWS COOL-HIGHS HIGHS Daytona Beach (DAB) 2-Feb 32 1980 50 51 1980 70 Leesburg (LEE) 2-Feb 29 1980 50 48 1980 71 Sanford (SFB) 2-Feb 33 1980 51 49 1980 72 Orlando (MCO) 2-Feb 32 1980 51 54 1951 73 Melbourne (MLB) 2-Feb 33 1980 52 55 1994 73 Vero Beach (VRB) 2-Feb 34 1980 53 55 1980 74 Fort Pierce (FPR) 2-Feb 34 1980 52 57 1994 74 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 45 70 46 57 / 0 0 20 10 MCO 46 71 50 59 / 0 0 20 20 MLB 49 72 47 63 / 0 10 20 20 VRB 48 72 47 64 / 0 10 20 30 LEE 42 70 46 55 / 0 10 20 10 SFB 44 71 47 57 / 0 0 20 10 ORL 45 71 50 57 / 0 0 20 20 FPR 48 72 47 64 / 0 20 20 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164- 247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747. Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264- 347-447-547-647-747. AM...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575. && $$ |
| #1258463 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 104 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1232 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 - Strong cold front moves through tonight. - Freezing temperatures Saturday and Sunday mornings. - Low rain chances next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1232 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Our next cold front is heading through through North Texas this afternoon and will reach South Texas around or a bit after midnight. This is the first of a fairly typical 1-2 punch with the front followed by a reinforcing surge of colder air. Temperatures Friday morning will actually be similar to this morning, and in some cases a bit warmer. Saturday is when surface ridging - and the colder air - sink into the area. Saturday morning lows will flirt with the freezing mark, mainly for northern areas. At this point, looks like it should be pretty brief, and will not be issuing a freeze warning yet. Will reassess with future forecasts. A cold weather advisory will quite likely be needed though for parts of the area - most likely roughly the northern half with wind chill values dropping to 20-25F. Expect a chilly day Saturday with highs in the 50s. Have gone just a bit below NBM for this period based on model trends, but the sun will be out, so that will help a bit. The coldest period will be Saturday night into Sunday morning when a hard freeze is likely once again. Low temperatures range from the lower 20s north to the lower 30s south and along the coast. Expect most points away from the immediate coast (within a few miles) will fall below freezing for a time, and a freeze warning will be necessary along with a cold weather advisory with very low wind chill values again, ranging from 15 to 25 area wide. As we head into next week, the pattern is fairly unsettled, with a shortwave passing on Tuesday then a larger trough Wednesday. Moisture remains limited, but there is a low chance for a few showers Tuesday through Thursday, with another front pushing through Thursday. Before that front arrives, temps could touch 80 degrees in some areas on Tuesday with mainly 70s expected Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Mainly quiet aviation forecast through this period. A few mid- level clouds this afternoon with scattered cirrus. A cold front will move through overnight shifting winds to the north and bringing some moderate gusts, especially to eastern TAF sites. VFR conditions are expected through the period. While there is a brief window ahead of the front where some VIS restrictions could develop, mainly south of the terminals, it is not likely. && .MARINE... Issued at 1232 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 A light to gentle flow is expected to continue this afternoon and evening. A cold front will move through after midnight shifting winds to the north at strong levels with some gusts near gale force possible. There is a low chance for showers mainly offshore overnight. Strong winds will persist through Saturday before subsiding by Sunday. A weak to moderate onshore flow returns by Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1232 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 A cold front will move through the area tonight with RH values falling to low levels (20-30%) Friday and Saturday. Expect breezy conditions near the coast tomorrow, but any duration of stronger winds aligning with low humidity will be limited. ERC values remain generally low, and the potential for critical fire conditions is low. RH values increase late in the weekend and early next week. There is a low chance for showers toward the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 41 58 36 51 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 36 57 29 47 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 45 63 35 56 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 40 60 32 53 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 40 57 35 49 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 40 62 32 52 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 42 60 33 53 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 44 57 40 50 / 10 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to noon CST Friday for GMZ231-232- 236-237. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 2 PM CST Saturday for GMZ250-255-270-275. && $$ |
| #1258462 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 142 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Cold Weather Outbreak This Weekend & Early Next Week. Freeze Warning & Frost Advisory for Inland Locations Tonight. Extreme Cold Watch Saturday Night & Early Sunday Morning. Lows in the Teens Possible Inland and Lower 20s at Coastal Locations. Dangerously Cold Wind Chills in the Teens & Single Digits - Windy Coastal Conditions Saturday and Saturday Night. Gusts up to 40 MPH at NE FL Beaches. Gale Conditions Across Coastal Waters - LoW Potential for Snowfall Saturday and Saturday Evening. Probabilities for Minor Impacts (Transportation) are 5-10% Across Southeast GA && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Freezing low temperatures are expected tonight for portions of inland southeast Georgia, with lows in the mid to upper 30s elsewhere inland with 40s near the coast. Calm winds overnight will allow for areas to widespread frost formation not only in the Freeze Warning area, but for portions of inland northeast Florida as well, where a Frost Advisory is now in effect. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure will shift across the FL panhandle, reaching the Atlantic by Saturday morning. Southwesterly winds develop on Friday as the Low pressure shifts across the area. This will allow for warmer air to filter into the area, bringing daytime highs in the 60s area-wide. By Friday night, isolated showers across SE GA and NE FL as the Low pushes into the Atlantic. Overnight temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s as winds shift to become northwesterly, allowing for colder air to move into the area once again. Winds will likely keep any frost development at a minimum. By Saturday the surface Low begins to deepen over the Atlantic waters. Northwesterly winds will gradually increase through the afternoon hours, continuing the advection of colder air into the local area. We could see some light wintry mix during the afternoon to evening hours on Saturday as moisture moves onshore, with chances of any wintry precip mainly along the Altamaha River Basin in SE GA and coastal locations. Cold air filtering into the area will allow for overnight temperatures to dip into the 10s across SE GA and the lower 20s across NE FL, with a Freeze Watch in place area- wide. The elevated northwesterly winds bring wind chills into the single digits by Sunday morning, promptly the insurance of an Extreme Cold Watch (the first for the JAX CWA). With the cold temperatures expected to remain into the daytime hours, both watches currently are in effect until 1pm Sunday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Dry and cold conditions on Sunday as the Low continues to shift towards the north-northeast. The elevated winds will begin to weaken by Sunday night as high pressure builds over the region. Temperatures will begin to warm through the upcoming week as highs will reach into the 50s on Monday and Tuesday and then the 60s by Wednesday and Thursday. Freeze products will likely be needed on Sunday/Monday night as sub freezing temperatures remain over the area. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the TAF period, with fairly calm winds as well. && .MARINE... Winds will settle this afternoon as high pressure becomes situated over the area through Friday night before a powerful arctic front plunges across the waters Saturday. This very strong front will bring strong winds and gusts across the waters Saturday which will strengthen to gale-force Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon as a low pressure organizes and deepens quickly off the coastal Carolinas. There will be a low chance of a mix of rain and snow showers across the waters Saturday night as moisture wraps around the low and this may lead to occasional periods of low visibility. High pressure will build from the west and over the waters during the early and middle part of next week. Rip Currents: Low risk for SE GA beaches through Friday and low-end Moderate risk at NE FL beaches as surf continues to lower. NE FL beaches will be at a Low Risk by Friday as surf heights diminish. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Low dispersions over inland SE GA and Suwannee Valley Friday - Widespread high dispersions Saturday and Sunday Widespread MinRH values at or below 30 percent Sunday and - Monday - Areas of high dispersions Monday Light easterly winds Friday morning shift to southwesterly by the afternoon hours. Dispersions become poor over SE GA due to lower winds and lower mixing heights on Friday. Chances for showers will increase on Friday night, followed by strengthening northwesterly surface and transport winds on Saturday, bringing very high daytime dispersion values by Saturday afternoon. Strong and gusty northwesterly surface and transport winds on Saturday night will yield very high nighttime dispersion values area-wide, and speeds will only gradually diminish by Sunday afternoon, with high daytime dispersion values continuing. An Arctic air mass will filter into our region on Saturday night, with critically low humidity values expected at inland locations on Sunday afternoon. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas to widespread frost at inland locations late Tonight and early Friday morning. A dangerously cold airmass will settle in over the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Daily records challenged by the arctic cold air outbreak are below: Record Low Maximum Temperatures: Saturday, January 31: JAX 40/1909 CRG 43/1977 GNV 47/1909 AMG 44/1948 Sunday, February 1: JAX 42/1900 CRG 44/1980 GNV 41/1909 AMG 42/1980 Record Low Temperatures: Sunday, February 1: JAX 24/1977 CRG 29/1977 GNV 25/1977 AMG 22/1977 Monday, February 2: JAX 23/1979 CRG 27/1980 GNV 25/1980 AMG 19/1951 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 31 60 33 42 / 0 10 20 20 SSI 43 60 41 51 / 0 0 20 20 JAX 37 66 39 51 / 0 10 20 10 SGJ 44 67 44 56 / 0 0 20 10 GNV 36 68 40 51 / 0 0 20 10 OCF 37 69 41 53 / 0 0 20 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for FLZ021-023-024- 030-031-035-120-136-220-225-236-322-422-425-522. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125- 132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333- 340-422-425-433-522-533-633. Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132- 136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340- 422-425-433-522-533-633. GA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for GAZ153-165. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250- 264-350-364. Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350- 364. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for GAZ132>136-149- 151-152-162-163-250-264-350-364. MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1258461 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 127 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Winter Storm Watch remains out for the ILM CWA. A Gale Watch is out for the coastal waters Saturday morning through Sunday. An Excessive Cold Watch is out covering dangerous cold possible Saturday night/Sunday morning and Sunday night/Monday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Temperatures well below normal will result in periods of dangerously low wind chill temperatures less than 16 degrees through at least Monday night. 2) Conditions remain favorable and confidence is increasing for significant winter weather this weekend. Expect impacts to travel and infrastructure, ranging from hazardous to dangerous conditions and closures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures well below normal will result in periods of dangerously low wind chill temperatures less than 16 degrees through at least Monday night. Dynamic storm system will usher in a very cold and somewhat prolonged air mass beginning late Saturday/early Sunday through really about the middle of next week. This along with sufficient confidence has prompted the issuance of an Extreme Cold watch. In pure terms Sunday may technically increase above the criteria...it will be a rugged and cold day and with Extreme Cold Warning criteria redeveloping by Monday morning. Suffice to say significant snow cover will help to sustain these conditions. KEY MESSAGE 2:...Conditions remain favorable and confidence is increasing for significant winter weather this weekend. Expect impacts to travel and infrastructure, ranging from hazardous to dangerous conditions and closures. Currently we`re sitting on the cusp of getting some of the higher res guidance for our winter storm, so for now the global models remain our main source of info. Wouldn`t be surprised if the hi-res guidance introduces more uncertainty with future forecast cycles, but for now the globals remain consistent with the overall pattern and no major changes, the EURO remaining on the lighter side when it comes to snowfall totals. Deep, cold air in place paired with the passing shortwave becoming offshore low into the weekend will bring moisture in leading to snow over the area. Moistening of the column through Saturday, particularly the afternoon onwards, would be the start of the snowfall for our area. The heaviest snowfall would occur Saturday night as mid- level frontogenesis increases with the development of the low. Precip type still remains largely snow, with a light wintry mix possible at the start of the event as the column changes, but no meaningful accumulations expected. Expected snowfall totals across the area have increased. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the period. Extended Forecast...Some flight restrictions are expected to develop with a storm system this weekend. && .MARINE... Through Friday...Winds will maintain a northerly component through the period. Speeds currently in the 10-15 knot range will decrease slightly to a 5-10 knot range tonight and then ramp up again Friday. Significant seas will see a slight variation but remain confined to a range of 2-4 feet. Friday Night through Tuesday...Deteriorating marine conditions to start the period due to an approaching winter storm. Overnight Friday into Saturday morning winds and seas will increase, gusting ~25 kts with 6 footers. A Gale Watch is in effect for late Saturday morning through Sunday, and gusts near storm force may be possible. The storm will move away through Sunday night with improving conditions through Monday. Benign conditions should return by Tuesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. SC...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1258460 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:09 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 200 PM AST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 146 PM AST Thu Jan 29 2026 * There is an increasing risk of urban and small-stream flooding from Saturday onwards as a frontal boundary approaches from the west. * For the U.S. Virgin Islands, the primary hazard will remain dangerous swimming conditions and hazardous seas in the near term. An increased risk of flooding is anticipated next week. * There is a high change of observing rip current in beaches from Rincon to Fajardo, Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands through Friday afternoon. Please remember, rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water, where it becomes difficult to return to safety. * Small Craft are urged to exercise caution along the northern Offshore Atlantic waters as seas can exceed 6 to 7 feet through tonight. && .Short Term(This evening through Saturday)... Issued at 146 PM AST Thu Jan 29 2026 Mostly sunny skies prevailed across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the morning hours, becoming variably cloudy during the afternoon. Maximum temperatures reached the mid-80s across coastal areas and the mid to upper 70s across higher elevations. Easterly winds of 1020 mph were observed. Limited afternoon convection will remain possible across western Puerto Rico later today, with activity expected to dissipate around sunset. The short-term forecast remains on track, with a sharp increase in shower activity anticipated toward the end of the forecast period. This evolving pattern will be driven by a deepening trough over the western Atlantic and enhanced moisture advection under a southerly wind flow. Overall, model guidance is in good agreement, indicating precipitable water values approaching or exceeding 2.0 inches by Saturday night. As a result, the intensity and areal coverage of afternoon showers are expected to increase by Saturday afternoon, followed by frequent passing showers with heavy rain at times across eastern and southern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands Saturday night. Consequently, the risk of urban and small-stream flooding will increase from Saturday onward. Meanwhile, expect a few passing showers across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands tonight through Friday morning, followed by another round of afternoon showers across northwestern Puerto Rico on Friday afternoon. No significant weather threats are expected tonight or Friday. Saturday is expected to be the most active and wettest day of the short-term period. && .Long Term(Sunday through next Wednesday)... Issued at 146 PM AST Thu Jan 29 2026 //from previous discussion// The long-term forecast remains tied to a frontal boundary lingering over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The latest global models continue to suggest an increase in precipitable water content to between 2.00 and 2.25 inches, well above climatological normals, from Sunday through midweek. At the upper levels, the region will remain positioned between a trough over the western Atlantic and a ridge to the southeast through late Tuesday or Wednesday. Depending on the exact placement and evolution of these features, the combination of upper-level dynamics and persistent low-level moisture convergence along the frontal boundary will support widespread rainfall. This activity is expected to increase in coverage from Sunday through Tuesday across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Given the anticipated atmospheric setup, there is a significant potential for heavy rainfall across the area beginning early next week. As the front approaches on Sunday and Monday, the influx of Caribbean moisture, south-southeasterly winds, daytime heating, and local orographic effects will likely trigger heavy rain across portions of northwestern and northern Puerto Rico. As the front passes over the islands, winds will shift from the north, pushing rainfall activity toward the eastern, southeastern, and southern portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands from late Monday through Wednesday. Potential impacts include ponding of water on roadways, urban and small-stream flooding, and localized flash flooding. Isolated thunderstorms and gusty winds cannot be ruled out with the heavier shower activity. In general, weather conditions are expected to remain unsettled, with the primary concerns being above-normal rainfall and localized flooding potential through at least Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 146 PM AST Thu Jan 29 2026 Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail across all TAF sites during the next 24 hrs. VCSH or -SHRA are likely across TJBQ thru 29/23Z. Aft 29/23Z, and increase in the frequency of showers is expected across TISX, TIST, TJSJ. SE winds around 8 to 13 kts and generally becoming lighter after 30/00Z, then picking up again around 30/09-15Z. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 146 PM AST Thu Jan 29 2026 Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail across all terminals during the next 24 hrs. However, SCT/BKN cigs btw FL030-060 should continue over the PR terminals through the mid-morning hours with mostly VCSH expected. Afternoon SHRA expected in and around TJBQ fm 29/18-23z, causing tempo MVFR to brief IFR conds. Low-level winds will continue ESE at 8-12 kt with sea breeze variations and higher gusts aft 29/14z. && .MARINE... Issued at 146 PM AST Thu Jan 29 2026 Light to moderate east to southeast winds will prevail through the end of the week as a surface high pressure shifts eastward over the central Atlantic. A north to northwest swell will increase sea up to 7 feet across the offshore Atlantic waters and a Small Craft Advisory is now in effect through midnight tonight. A larger, long period northerly swell is expected to build seas up to around 10 feet. By Monday, combining with increasing winds to produce hazardous seas across the local waters through midweek. An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is also expected from this weekend into early next week due to an approaching front and a trough. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 146 PM AST Thu Jan 29 2026 Pulses of weak northerly swells will continue to affect the Atlantic waters through the remainder of the week, with the strongest pulse expected through Friday afternoon. A high rip current risk is in effect for the beaches from Rincon to Fajardo, Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands. Beachgoers are encouraged to monitor the forecast for updates and changing conditions. Please remember, rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water, where it becomes difficult to return to safety. Residents and visitors should also note that beach conditions may further deteriorate early next week due to increasing winds and the arrival of a stronger northwesterly to northerly long-period swell, potentially leading to hazardous beach conditions. Additionally, a change in the weather pattern may bring showers and thunderstorms from this weekend into early next week, increasing risks for beachgoers. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012. VI...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for VIZ001. AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST tonight for AMZ711. && $$ |
| #1258459 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1256 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1247 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 - Low relative humidities will continue this afternoon across the western half of South Florida which could result in enhanced fire behavior. Low humidity values will return during the afternoon hours of Sunday and Monday. - A Gale Watch is now in effect for South Florida beginning on Saturday afternoon and evening. Sustained winds of 30-40 knots with higher gusts is possible across the Atlantic and Gulf waters through Sunday afternoon. Mariners should stay up to date with the latest forecast over the next several days. - A potentially record breaking cold snap is possible late weekend into early next week as another strong cold front passes through the area. Near freezing to sub-freezing low temperatures are possible for a large area of South Florida early Sunday, Monday and Tuesday morning. Lows in the 30s could reach as far South as Miami Dade County with wind chills in the 20s across all of South Florida. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 After a somewhat dreary and cloudy Wednesday, Thursday and Friday should bring more sunshine across all of South Florida. While early morning temperatures are expected to be quite cold again, the afternoon hours should be quite pleasant with most of South Florida warming up into the 70s. Overnight temperatures tonight into Friday will remain warmer than the previous few days as well. Expect upper 50s to low 60s along the east coast with mid 40s to lower 50s for interior and Southwest Florida. On Friday, a weak area of low pressure will cross the Florida peninsula which could bring a few more clouds and scattered showers during the afternoon hours. Winds will begin to shift from the northeast to the northwest through the day as the next hotly anticipated cold front approaches from the north. Aside from a few showers during the afternoon, Friday should be fairly pleasant as well with highs in the lower 70s. Lows overnight into Saturday will reach the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 The aforementioned area of low pressure enters the western Atlantic on Saturday and will begin to rapidly deepen as it pushes towards the northeast. This system will send a strong cold front across South Florida on Saturday afternoon which will act to reinforce the cooler air mass across the area. The coolest and driest air mass of the season thus far arrives early Sunday morning with potentially widespread freezing or near freezing low temperatures across South Florida. Northwest flow prevails behind the strong front, which will advect a dry arctic continental air mass down the Florida peninsula all day on Sunday. Sunday night into Monday morning could be even colder as cold air advection is maximized, and maritime modification to the air mass is minimized, or nearly non-existent. Low temperatures could be so cold early Sunday and early Monday that Extreme Cold Warnings may be needed around Lake Okeechobee with potential Freeze Warnings extending much further south than the earlier cold snaps this season. Afternoon high temperatures on Sunday and Monday may not reach much higher than the mid 50s. Trends have been closely monitored and will continue to be monitored through the week although confidence is slowly increasing that this could be the coldest Attic snap across South Florida since December 2010. Temperatures begin to rebound on Tuesday morning but will still dip into the lower 30s to lower 40s across all of South Florida although Tuesday afternoon we may finally be able to reach the 60s during the afternoon. On Wednesday afternoon, high temperatures (finally) are able to climb back into the 70s. Visit our website for graphical temperature forecasts (hover over `Forecast` and then click `Cold Weather` OR `Other Probabilistic Forecast Graphics`). Describing temperatures across every part of the forecast area through text is a bit clunky and images make the message much clearer. While the anomalous temperature forecast continues to steal the show, surface winds behind this cold front will be quite significant as well. Winds will increase out of the northwest on Saturday afternoon between 15-25 mph over land with potential gusts to around 40 mph through Sunday morning. A Wind Advisory is not out of the question for this time period, and this potential will continue to be monitored. Regardless, it would be wise to secure any light outdoor objects that may become projectiles prior to this weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Light northeasterly surface winds will prevail across the region this afternoon with winds becoming light after sunset. The combination of a surface and upper level disturbance will result in increasing rain chances across the region on Friday morning. Added in VCSH at all east coast terminals to account for the increasing rain chances. Lower cigs will be possible during this time period as SCT SHRA develops across the region. && .MARINE... Issued at 1152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 Conditions across local waters continue to improve today and Friday before they will once again rapidly deteriorate on Saturday. NNE flow between 15-20 kts will prevail today, weakening to 10-15 kts on Friday. Friday night into early Saturday, winds will veer to a more westerly direction across all local waters increasing to 30-40 kts by late Saturday night. Gusts during this time period could reach 40-50 kts. Gale watches/warnings will be explored over the coming forecast cycles. Wave heights will peak with the winds late Saturday night into early sunday warning with heights of 10-12 feet across both Gulf and Atlantic waters. Winds and waves will slowly subside through the afternoon and evening on Sunday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 A moderate risk of rip currents continues at all Atlantic beaches through the end of the week. Rip current probabilities are poised to increase behind a cold front passage late this weekend into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 61 70 56 69 / 10 40 20 30 West Kendall 55 72 52 70 / 10 40 20 30 Opa-Locka 58 72 55 70 / 10 40 20 30 Homestead 60 72 55 71 / 20 40 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 61 70 56 68 / 10 40 30 30 N Ft Lauderdale 60 70 55 67 / 10 40 20 30 Pembroke Pines 58 72 55 70 / 10 40 20 30 West Palm Beach 58 70 54 67 / 10 20 20 30 Boca Raton 59 71 55 69 / 10 30 20 30 Naples 53 70 56 66 / 0 10 30 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night for AMZ610. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through late Saturday night for AMZ630. Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for AMZ650-651-670-671. GM...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning for GMZ656-657-676. && $$ |
| #1258458 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:03 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1154 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1154 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 - A pair of cold fronts move across the area Friday and Saturday, ushering in an Arctic airmass. Bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills are expected late Friday night into Sunday. - Hazardous marine conditions are expected to impact our local marine zones Friday night through through Sunday morning. Winds to gale force are likely, especially over the Gulf. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1134 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Now through Wednesday... For the rest of the week through the weekend, a strong cold front moves across the forecast area Friday, with a reinforcing front moving across the forecast area Saturday in response to two passing upper level shortwaves. Winds behind the first front will remain breezy Friday, with low temperatures in the upper teens north of Highway 84 to upper 20s near the coast and Wind Chills dropping into the single digits north of Highway 84 and teens south Friday night. But strong winds (a Wind Advisory will likely be needed) Saturday accompany the second front, ushering in even colder air and limiting high temperatures to the 30s Saturday and daytime wind chills in the teens to low 20s over most of the forecast area. Temperatures Saturday night drop even lower the previous night, bottoming out into teens over areas inland from the coast, around 20 along the coast. Wind Chills dropping into the single digits forecast area wide are expected Saturday night. An Extreme Cold Watch is in effect from late Friday evening into Sunday morning. Any precipitation from these passing shortwaves are expected to remain well offshore. Some recovery is expected Sunday as the cold airmass that moves over the western half of the Southeast begins to shift east as an upper ridge that has built north over the western Conus shifts east. In the coming week, surface high pressure moves over the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday, shifting onshore flow back to onshore by Tuesday. A modest moisture return occurs by mid week before another front approaches the Southeast. Deterministic guidance diverges into mid week with this passage, but are in agreement that temperatures rise back to near seasonal norms by the end of the forecast. Offshore flow through most of the forecast will limit any swell, keeping the Rip Risk low through the weekend into the coming week. /16 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 1134 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Weak onshore flow shifts to moderate to strong Friday as a cold front passes. A reinforcing front passes Saturday, keeping offshore flow strong to very strong into Sunday. A Gale Watch is in effect for open Gulf waters beginning late Friday night, with a Small Craft Advisory likely to be issued for protected waters Thursday. Surface high pressure approaches area waters late Sunday into the coming week, easing winds over area waters into Monday, then shifting them to onshore in the coming week. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 57 38 59 26 / 0 0 10 0 Pensacola 55 43 61 29 / 0 10 10 0 Destin 56 46 61 29 / 0 10 20 10 Evergreen 56 33 57 21 / 0 0 20 0 Waynesboro 55 32 51 20 / 0 0 10 0 Camden 53 31 50 20 / 0 0 20 0 Crestview 58 35 62 25 / 0 10 20 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for ALZ051>060-261>266. FL...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for FLZ201>206. MS...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for GMZ650- 655-670-675. && $$ |
| #1258457 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:03 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1159 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1136 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 - A cold front will move through tonight, bringing colder temperatures back to the region Friday through Sunday. - There is a medium to high chance (60-90%) of subfreezing temperatures Saturday night across the Northern Ranchlands and Upper RGV. There is a low chance (10-30%) of subfreezing temperatures Saturday night across the Low/Mid RGV. - Low rain chances (10-30%) along the immediate coast tonight into Friday morning. - Adverse beach conditions are possible through the weekend. Adverse marine conditions are expected Friday morning through Saturday afternoon, with a Small Craft Advisory in effect beginning at 5 AM Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1136 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Above normal temperatures Thursday will be the last taste of widespread 70s until next week as a cold front will pass through Deep South Texas late Thursday night into Friday morning. Showers ahead of the front will likely remain over the waters, with the greatest chance (10-30%) over land being along the coast and less than 10% for the remainder of the region. Friday morning lows will be comparable to this mornings in the 40s (50s near the coast). Cold air advection will keep Friday`s daytime highs below average in the 60s. Saturday will have the coldest high temperatures of the forecast, with the Ranchlands in the 50s and RGV in the low 60s. Sunday highs in the 60s will continue to climb through midweek, returning to the 70s by Monday. Freezing temperatures are possible again this weekend behind the front. In the Northern Ranchlands, Friday night/Saturday morning has a low-moderate (10-40%) chance of temperatures below freezing. The best chance for freezing temperatures is in the Northern Ranchlands and Rio Grande Plains Saturday night/Sunday morning, with a medium to high chance (60-90%) of minimum temperatures below freezing, and a moderate chance (30-50%) of a hard freeze. This same night, chances of subfreezing temps are lower (10-30%) in the RGV, with the highest chances being further north (Willacy County). Wind chills both mornings are expected to range from the mid-upper 20s (Ranchlands) to the 30s (coastal, RGV). Freezing or below temperatures, actual and apparent, are unlikely after Sunday morning. Gusty northerly winds behind the front will likely lead to hazardous coastal conditions with a High Risk of Rip Currents this weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Primarily VFR with occasional MVFR conditions are possible through the remainder of today. South-southeasterly winds become light and variable overnight ahead of a cold front expected to cross the region prior to sunrise Friday. There is a low (10-30%) chance of scattered showers at BRO and HRL ahead of the front. Winds become northerly and gusty to 20-25 kts Friday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1136 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Light to moderate southeasterly winds and slight seas will continue through Thursday evening. There is a low to moderate chance (30-50%) of rain over the waters overnight ahead of a cold front passing overnight into early Friday. A Small Craft Advisory will go into effect at 5 AM Friday and last through Saturday afternoon. The SCA may need to be cancelled earlier for the Laguna Madre, possibly as early as Friday evening. A fresh to strong northerly breeze behind the front will persist Friday through early Saturday, before weakening and returning to onshore/southerly by Sunday night. Moderate seas behind the front return to slight by Monday. Favorable conditions continue early next week before another disturbance may return unfavorable conditions midweek. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 53 64 44 60 / 20 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 46 63 37 59 / 10 0 0 0 MCALLEN 50 66 41 62 / 10 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 48 66 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 55 63 52 59 / 30 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 50 63 45 59 / 20 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 3 PM CST Saturday for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175. && $$ |
| #1258456 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:51 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1240 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Cold Weather Advisories issued for the risk of dangerous wind chills tonight into Friday morning. Those may need to be extended into Friday night and Saturday morning. There is a growing potential for accumulating snow, gusty winds and coastal flooding for eastern and southeast New England Sunday and Sunday night, although there is still uncertainty in the specific details. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Stronger shot of Arctic air produces dangerous cold/low wind chills tonight into Friday morning, possibly into Friday night to early Saturday as well. Significant accretion of freezing spray is also expected for vessels navigating the waters. - While details are still uncertain, there is a growing potential for a coastal storm to bring accumulating snow and gusty winds to eastern and southeastern New England Sunday and Sunday night, to go along with the potential for coastal flooding for the Sunday morning/evening high tides. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Stronger shot of Arctic air produces dangerous cold/low wind chills tonight into Friday morning, possibly into Friday night to early Saturday as well. Significant accretion of freezing spray is also expected for vessels navigating the waters. Much below normal temperatures continue through the workweek into this weekend, to go along with dry weather, being governed by an active northern stream and sustained WNW midlevel flow. However starting later this afternoon, a shot of even stronger Arctic air builds into Southern New England. 850 mb temps drop to a frigid -20 to -22C through tonight, which modifies only very slightly into Fri. The combination of this level of low-level cold air with the existing snowpack should favor widespread sub-zero air temperatures at least tonight but potentially into Friday evening/early Saturday as well. WNW winds around 15 to 20 mph picking up tonight given these air temps will lead to dangerous cold and low wind chills. After coordination, we`ve hoisted Cold Weather Advisories for much of Southern New England except for the Cape and Islands starting tonight through 11 AM Friday morning. Certainly the name of the headline might lead one to undersell the risk as we have cold weather 5 months out of the year, so a reminder this headline is meant to address dangerous cold leading to frostbite given prolonged exposure. The lowest wind chills look to be in the higher terrain with values in the 20 to 25 below zero range; though it is more marginal in the lower elevations with values in the 15 to 20 below range, it just made more sense from a messaging standpoint to expand the headline into most of the rest of Southern New England. For the Cape and Islands, values around 5 to 10 below zero look more likely and felt was too marginal for those locations. The lowest of the windchills should be taking place just before sunrise, but will set the stage for a frigid Friday with highs only in the single digits to mid teens. Regardless, dress in layers and limit time outdoors, and also check in on the elderly and pets to ensure they are prepared for this cold. Additional cold weather advisories could be needed for Friday night into Saturday morning, but the potential for some cloud cover working southward from northern New England and lighter winds cast uncertainty. This arctic air could also lead to substantial accretion of icing on vessels over the waters; heavy freezing spray warnings and freezing spray advisories have also been issued for the waters. Key Message 2...While details are still uncertain, there is a growing potential for a winter storm to bring accumulating snow and gusty winds to eastern and southeastern New England Sunday and Sunday night, to go along with the potential for coastal flooding for the Sunday morning/evening high tides. Continuing to monitor latest developments regarding a significant coastal storm which could affect Southern New England Sunday. There is a growing potential for accumulating snow and gusty winds for Cape Cod, the Islands and perhaps further westward into South Shore and the I-95 corridor. While interior Southern New England seems less likely for significant impacts, by no means can they be ruled out of the woods. Ensemble means and their individual members are showing increasing consensus and ensemble-member-clustering toward a rapidly- strengthening initial coastal low pressure just offshore the NC/SC coastline Saturday, in vicinity of the Gulf Stream ocean current. That much has become more clear. By Saturday night/early Sunday, as the primary cyclone pulls away well east of Cape Hatteras, ECMWF EPS/GEM GEPS/GEFS ensemble mean sea level pressure field then becomes rather large, with some bagginess in the ensemble mean isobars oriented to the northeast of the main low center. What has become a trend across the deterministic model suite, and is probably the cause of the bagginess to the isobars in the ensembles, is the development of secondary (spurious?) lows east of the main cyclone`s center as it starts to pull away from the NC Outer Banks. Perhaps this is due to convective feedback issues given the strong air-sea baroclinic setting - hard to really know. Why is this even important? The models handle this very complicated interaction, moving forward in time, in varied ways. This ranges from a consolidation of lows as it nears or passes south of 40N/70W, which is really a best- case scenario for us, as the system`s precip shield would pass far enough SE for a more glancing blow to Cape Cod, the Islands and perhaps South Shore. On the other hand, models like yesterday`s ECMWF show the potential for one of these lows to, for lack of a better term, "slingshot" north/northwest toward our far eastern coastline later Sunday into Sunday night. That solution would be the worst of all possible outcomes, which would spread a larger precip shield much further westward than just the eastern SNE coast, generate a period of strong to potentially damaging NE/N wind gusts, while also significantly elevating the risk for coastal flooding. It is still too early to say which one of those possible solutions, or something in between, is more likely. We`re now four days from a possible impact, and with still quite a bit of uncertainty and waffling/wobbling in the models, will take a more probabilistic approach when it comes to delineating possible hazards. The risk for accumulating snowfall, potentially significant, is increasing for the Cape and Islands and southeast New England. NBM 5.0 24-hr probs of exceeding snowfall of 6 or more inches are now in the moderate to high (50-65%) range for the Cape and Islands; values then taper to lower to moderate (35-50%) range for the Boston- Providence I-95 corridor eastward toward South Shore and South Coast, with low (20% or less) from the North Shore westward through the remainder of SNE. The 24-hr NBM 5.0 probs of a foot or more of snow are in the 40-50% range for the the Cape and Islands, and are around 25-35% for South Shore. The Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index now shows high (50-70%) probs of Moderate winter storm impacts south and east of I-95. After a coordination call with WPC, we agreed to wait another model cycle or two before winter storm watches are considered to get a better handle on the westward extent of the precip shield. How close any deepening low pressure gets to our eastern coast will also determine how strong NE to N winds develop, as well as coastal flooding given that there is a full moon this weekend. Stevens Institute guidance suggests a 1.5 to 2.5 ft storm surge with wave action, with the main risk being for eastern MA given NE to N wind trajectories - Boston, South Shore, Cape Cod, Nantucket. That guidance offers widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding for both the Sunday morning and Sunday evening high tides. As with any coastal flood forecast, timing of the peak surge with high tide will be critical, as will the effect of wave run-up/wave action. Beach erosion also could be possible given 20+ ft waves offshore. The bottom line is that while there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in how far west would the snow shield advance Sunday/Sunday night, the chances for significant accumulating snow and gusty winds are on the increase for eastern and southeast New England. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Friday Night...High confidence. VFR. Lower bases between 020-040 across the outer Cape and possibly Nantucket as well later today. WNW winds become gusty overnight and continue into Friday. Winds expected to shift more W and diminish Friday. KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday through Tuesday/... Friday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Saturday: VFR. Saturday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Slight chance SN. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 55 kt. Chance SN. Sunday Night: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 60 kt. Chance SN. Monday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. NW winds today at 15-20 knots increasing to 25-30 knots tonight. Seas increase to 5-6 feet again tonight with the higher winds. Light to moderate freezing spray likely today esspically between MVY and ACK. Moderate to heavy freezing spray expected tonight and lasting into Friday evening. Best chance for heavy freezing spray is in the MVY and ACK sounds. Outlook /Friday through Tuesday/... Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Freezing spray, slight chance of freezing rain. Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Freezing spray likely. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Saturday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Local rough seas. Freezing spray, chance of snow. Local visibility 1 nm or less. Sunday: Moderate risk for storm force winds with gusts up to 60 kt. Rough seas up to 22 ft. Snow likely, freezing spray. Visibility 1 nm or less. Sunday Night: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 24 ft. Freezing spray, chance of snow. Areas of visibility 1 nm or less. Monday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 21 ft. Freezing spray. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Friday for CTZ002>004. MA...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Friday for MAZ002>022-026. Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024. Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through late Sunday night for MAZ022>024. RI...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Friday for RIZ001>007. MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for ANZ230. Freezing Spray Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ231-235>237-250-251-254-256. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ231-251. Storm Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for ANZ231-232-250-254>256. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ232>235-237. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ232>234-255. Gale Watch from late Saturday night through late Sunday night for ANZ233>235-237. Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday evening for ANZ236. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ250-254. Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Monday morning for ANZ251. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ255-256. && $$ |
| #1258455 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1245 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The aviation section was updated for the 18z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Confidence continues to increase in an accumulating snowfall event across a portion of the SC Lowcountry and SE Georgia Saturday morning through Saturday night. - 2) Uncommonly cold temperatures are expected to impact the area this weekend into early next week with dangerously cold conditions expected Saturday night and Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Confidence continues to increase in an accumulating snowfall event across a portion of the SC Lowcountry and SE Georgia Saturday morning through Saturday night. On Saturday, a coastal low pressure system is expected to develop off the southeast coast out ahead of a strong upper level trough. While the southward extent of the precipitation shield remains uncertain somewhere near the Altamaha River Valley, scattered to areas of drizzle/rain are expected to develop throughout the day given weak isentropic lift in a well saturated atmospheric column. As the aforementioned low increases in strength, cooler air is filtered down into the region, with no warm air aloft causing any precipitation type headaches, bringing a switch from rain to snow throughout the afternoon hours on Saturday. The dendritic growth zone remains well saturated for a few hours Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning, and when combined with the strong forcing from the upper level trough swinging through, would not be surprised to see snowfall rates reach up into the 0.5 to 1 inch per hour range. This is especially true given the atmospheric columns well below freezing across the region, leading to rather "dry" snowfall as snow-to-liquid ratios near the 20:1 mark. In addition, seeing some signals that instability-driven frontal banding may further result in higher snowfall totals, especially across portions of southeastern South Carolina. With numerous hours where the environment is capable of producing and sustaining snowfall accumulations, light to moderate snowfall continues to look likely Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning. While overall QPF amounts are looking to remain light at maybe a tenth of an inch across southern southeastern Georgia and just over a quarter inch across northern Berkeley and Charleston counties, the cold temperatures and thus high snow-to-liquid ratio has potential to create some impressive snowfall totals. Areas across northern Berkeley have a decent chance (30-40%) for seeing 4 inches of snow, while the rest of the tri-county region looks to remain in the 1 to 3 inch range. Elsewhere across southeast South Carolina, between half an inch to 2 inches of snow can be expected. Across southeast Georgia, between half an inch to an inch is expected along and south of the I-16 corridor, rising into the 1 to 3 inch range heading further north of I-16 into the Jenkins/Screven county area. Regardless of where you are, the "light and dry" nature of the snow combined with some breezy winds will likely lead to lowered visibilities in tandem with the accumulating snow, so be on the lookout for difficult travel conditions. KEY MESSAGE 2: Uncommonly cold temperatures are expected to impact the area this weekend into early next week with dangerously cold conditions expected Saturday night and Sunday morning. Confidence continues to increase that an extended period of uncommonly cold temperatures will impact southeast GA and southeast SC this weekend and into early next week. There continues to be excellent model agreement concerning the cold air, including indications of temperatures on the order of 5 standard deviations below normal in the column across the region for Saturday and Sunday. A shot of very cold air will push through the area Saturday and Saturday night as arctic high pressure pushes in from the west and an area of low pressure develops off the Southeast coast. The coldest night is expected to occur Saturday night into Sunday morning when widespread teens are expected across the forecast area. In fact, we cooled the forecast low from the deterministic NBM by blending in the even colder NBM50 as the deterministic values continue to run outside the high end of the IQR. Also, the presence of snow on the ground should provide support for even lower temperatures. The forecast now advertises low to mid teens inland and upper teens along the coast. When combined with persistent northwest winds gusting into the 20-25 mph range, wind chills are forecast to plunge into the single digits for Sunday morning. With this in mind, we have issued an Extreme Cold Watch for all of southeast GA and southeast SC from Saturday evening through midday Sunday. For Sunday night and Monday morning, wind chills are expected to fall well into the teens. Temperatures will only be a couple of degrees higher than the night before, but winds will be significantly less which will yield higher wind chill values. A Cold Weather Advisory will almost certainly be needed. Tuesday morning will again be cold, but wind chills will be even higher. There could be a few isolated areas with wind chills down to around 20 degrees, but a Cold Weather Advisory looks less likely. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 18z Friday. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to prevail into Friday night. The probability of widespread flight restrictions will increase for Saturday and Saturday night as an area of low pressure develops off the coast. There is also increasing potential for snow and gusty winds at the terminals. && .MARINE... Tonight through Friday: Overall, quiet conditions are expected to prevail across the local waters through Friday. Winds should remain 10 knots or less with seas 1-2 feet. The main time period of concern for marine conditions will start early Saturday morning as an area of low pressure develops and strengthens off the Southeast coast. Northwest winds will strengthen Saturday and likely peak Saturday night into Sunday. Conditions should then improve Sunday night into Monday as the low pulls away and the gradient weakens. Confidence is increasing that widespread gales will impact the local waters starting Saturday afternoon and potentially continuing into early Sunday afternoon. Therefore, a Gale Watch has been issued for all waters (not including Charleston Harbor) for gusts up to around 40 knots. Gusts could be close to gale force for Charleston Harbor as well, but confidence isn`t quite high enough for a watch there. If a Gale Warning is eventually issued, a period of Small Craft Advisories will be needed later Sunday and through Sunday night once the gales come to an end Sunday afternoon. && .CLIMATE... Record Low Temperatures: January 31: KCHS: 15/1966 KCXM: 19/1966 KSAV: 16/1966 February 1: KCHS: 21/1977 KCXM: 23/1900 KSAV: 23/1977 February 2: KCHS: 19/1980 KCXM: 17/1917 KSAV: 18/1917 Record Low Maximum Temperatures: January 31: KCHS: 36/1948 KCXM: 34/1936 KSAV: 37/1909 February 1: KCHS: 38/1980 KCXM: 36/1900 KSAV: 38/1900 February 2: KCHS: 38/1980 KCXM: 38/1898 KSAV: 38/1951 Record Snowfall: January 31: KCHS: 0.6/1977 KSAV: 1.3/1977 February 1: KCHS: no record established KSAV: no record established && .EQUIPMENT... The KCLX radar remains out of service. We hope to have the radar restored by Saturday. Users should use adjacent WSR-88D sites, including KCAE, KLTX, KJAX, KVAX and KJGX. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for GAZ087-088-099>101. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141. SC...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for SCZ040-042>045-047>052. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for SCZ040-042>045-047>052. MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for AMZ350-352-354-374. && $$ |
| #1258454 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:36 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1231 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Cold Weather Outbreak This Weekend & Early Next Week. Freeze Warning & Frost Advisory for Inland Locations Tonight. Extreme Cold Watch Saturday Night & Early Sunday Morning. Lows in the Teens Possible Inland and Lower 20s at Coastal Locations. Dangerously Cold Wind Chills in the Teens & Single Digits - Windy Coastal Conditions Saturday and Saturday Night. Gusts up to 40 MPH at NE FL Beaches. Gale Conditions Across Coastal Waters - LOW Potential for Snowfall Saturday and Saturday Evening. Probabilities for Minor Impacts (Transportation) are 5-10% Across Southeast GA && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Freezing low temperatures are expected tonight for portions of inland southeast Georgia, with lows in the mid to upper 30s elsewhere inland with 40s near the coast. Calm winds overnight will allow for areas to widespread frost formation not only in the Freeze Warning area, but for portions of inland northeast Florida as well, where a Frost Advisory is now in effect. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... An area of weak low pressure will develop over the central Gulf and move northeast across FL Friday. This low will develop further and strengthen as it moves to the northeast of the area Friday night into Saturday. As the low moves across FL, rain showers will be possible from late in the day Friday, through Saturday night. At this time, it looks like enough moisture will wrap around the back side of the departing low to bring at least a low chance of a light wintry mix Saturday into Saturday night, with greatest chance over SE GA. The low will continue to intensify as it moves away to the northeast Saturday night. With the flow from the southwest ahead of low Friday, highs will rise to near seasonal levels. Friday night temperatures will be near a little below average. Once the low moves away to the northeast, colder air will wrap into region behind it. Highs on Saturday will be well below normal, with readings falling into the 17 to 22 range Saturday night. So, a hard freeze is expected all across forecast area including the beach communities. With winds elevated behind the low, wind chills Saturday night will drop into the single digits, placing Saturday night solidly in the Extreme Cold Warning range. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The low will continue to pull away to the northeast Sunday, as high pressure builds from the northwest. The high will build overhead Monday and Tuesday. The high will weaken and move off to the east Wednesday. This will be a dry period. Hazards this period will be focused on the cold airmass. Nightly freezes are expected. Temperatures will be below average for most of this period, with a recovery to near average for Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the TAF period, with fairly calm winds as well. && .MARINE... Winds will settle this afternoon as high pressure becomes situated over the area through Friday night before a powerful arctic front plunges across the waters Saturday. This very strong front will bring strong winds and gusts across the waters Saturday which will strengthen to gale-force Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon as a low pressure organizes and deepens quickly off the coastal Carolinas. There will be a low chance of a mix of rain and snow showers across the waters Saturday night as moisture wraps around the low and this may lead to occasional periods of low visibility. High pressure will build from the west and over the waters during the early and middle part of next week. Rip Currents: Low risk for SE GA beaches through Friday and low-end Moderate risk at NE FL beaches as surf continues to lower. NE FL beaches will be at a Low Risk by Friday as surf heights diminish. && .FIRE WEATHER... Light easterly winds Friday morning shift to southwesterly by the afternoon hours. Dispersions become poor over SE GA due to lower winds and lower mixing heights on Friday. Chances for showers will increase on Friday night, followed by strengthening northwesterly surface and transport winds on Saturday, bringing very high daytime dispersion values by Saturday afternoon. Strong and gusty northwesterly surface and transport winds on Saturday night will yield very high nighttime dispersion values area-wide, and speeds will only gradually diminish by Sunday afternoon, with high daytime dispersion values continuing. An Arctic air mass will filter into our region on Saturday night, with critically low humidity values expected at inland locations on Sunday afternoon. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas to widespread frost at inland locations late Tonight and early Friday morning. A dangerously cold airmass will settle in over the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Daily records challenged by the arctic cold air outbreak are below: Record Low Maximum Temperatures: Saturday, January 31: JAX 40/1909 CRG 43/1977 GNV 47/1909 AMG 44/1948 Sunday, February 1: JAX 42/1900 CRG 44/1980 GNV 41/1909 AMG 42/1980 Record Low Temperatures: Sunday, February 1: JAX 24/1977 CRG 29/1977 GNV 25/1977 AMG 22/1977 Monday, February 2: JAX 23/1979 CRG 27/1980 GNV 25/1980 AMG 19/1951 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 56 31 60 33 / 0 0 10 20 SSI 53 43 60 41 / 0 0 0 20 JAX 58 37 66 39 / 0 0 10 20 SGJ 57 44 67 44 / 0 0 0 20 GNV 62 36 68 40 / 0 0 0 20 OCF 63 37 69 41 / 0 0 0 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for FLZ021-023-024- 030-031-035-120-136-220-225-236-322-422-425-522. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125- 132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333- 340-422-425-433-522-533-633. Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132- 136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340- 422-425-433-522-533-633. GA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for GAZ153-165. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250- 264-350-364. Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350- 364. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for GAZ132>136-149- 151-152-162-163-250-264-350-364. MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1258453 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:36 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1122 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1057 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 - Below normal temps expected through the remainder of the week. - Another significant Arctic outbreak, stronger/colder than last weekend, with impacts expected late Friday through early Monday morning. No precipitation is expected, but the air mass will be very cold, with the primary threats being dangerously low temperatures and wind chills. A Cold Weather - Gale force winds look to be on the horizon the entire weekend, starting as early as Friday night. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1057 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Conditions will be dry through the short term forecast. The main story for the short term forecast will be the extreme cold temperatures that we are expecting across the area. Low temperatures Saturday and Sunday morning will be in the mid 20s to low 20s in most locations. These temperatures are cold, but will be greatly exacerbated by the strong winds. Wind chill temperatures will be in the teens to single digits for most of the area Saturday and Sunday mornings. As a result, Extreme Cold Warnings have been issued for the entire area from Friday night through Sunday morning. Highs on Saturday will be just above freezing for most locations while highs on Sunday are a bit warmer with temperatures in the mid 40s. During this cold event, remember the 4 Ps: pets, plants, people, and pipes. Make sure to dress warmly if you need to be outside, but prolonged exposure will be dangerous. MSW && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1057 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Monday through mid week, temperatures will be warming steadily through the week. Highs will be in the mid 60s and lows will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Looking at the models, conditions will be dry Monday and Tuesday. Another cold front will likely be moving through the area Wednesday, which will cause another cold snap. It is still too far out to discern too many details, but some strong to severe storms could be possible on Wednesday as the system moves through the area. We will be monitoring for changes as we go through the next few days. MSW && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1057 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist for most area airports throughout the forecast period. Conditions will drop to IFR for a few hours at MCB and BTR around daybreak due to lower ceilings. Wind shifts greater than 30 degrees will be expected throughout the forecast period at all area airports. MSW && .MARINE... Issued at 1057 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 A surface low developing along the lee of the Rockies will move southeast across the Red River and into the Lower Ms Valley today. However it will weaken as this occurs leading to light onshore flow today and tonight before it moves into the southeastern CONUS overnight. Once it moves through offshore flow will redevelop through the day and increasing in strength. By afternoon SCY conditions will likely be in place and as deeper cold air drives into the region winds northerly and northwesterly winds will continue to increase and Gale conditions could develop. A Gale Warning has been issued for Friday night through Saturday. Winds will eventually begin to taper off as high pressure builds in early Sunday. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Extreme Cold Warning from midnight Friday night to 10 AM CST Sunday for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. GM...Gale Warning from 6 PM Friday to midnight CST Saturday night for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...Extreme Cold Warning from midnight Friday night to 10 AM CST Sunday for MSZ068>071-077-083>088. GM...Gale Warning from 6 PM Friday to midnight CST Saturday night for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1258452 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:21 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1205 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1203 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 - Another intense arctic blast likely arrives by Saturday with more hard freezes and dangerous wind chills returning. Wind chills in the single digits are becoming increasingly likely (60 to 90% chance). Continue to monitor this potential for dangerous cold as we approach the weekend. - There is a high (90%) chance of gale conditions over the waters late Friday into Saturday. Very dangerous marine conditions are expected with gusts up to 40 knots and building seas. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 104 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 High pressure moves overhead today with tranquil weather expected. Highs will be in the mid 50s to low 60s with light winds. Moisture will be on the increase tonight with some clouds moving in late. Thus, tonight will be "warmer" than previous nights with 30s inland and near 40 along the coast. Big changes come in the Long Term. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 104 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 In the mid and upper-levels, a weak shortwave moves across the Southeast on Friday before a much more potent trough drops across the southeast US Friday night into Saturday. At the surface, an area of low pressure moves across the Gulf Coast Friday, then begins to deepen off the Southeast US coast Saturday into Sunday. Meanwhile, strong high pressure drops into the Great Plains Saturday and into the Mid-South Sunday. For Friday, as the low moves overhead, we`ll have a few scattered showers during the morning and afternoon. However, there`s some dry air in the low levels still lingering, so we don`t expect much measurable rain. That dry air complicates the temperature forecast a bit too. As the rain falls in that dry layer near the surface, we may see some evaporative cooling take place, which would keep areas in the Panhandle and southeast Alabama in the 40s to low 50s on Friday given cloud cover hanging around. This is reflected in some of the hi- res model guidance this evening. If the clouds break a bit, then temperatures may warm back up into the upper 50s. There is quite a bit of uncertainty with temperature spread in the HREF guidance of 8 degrees between the 25th and 75th percentiles Friday afternoon. To lean more into hi-res guidance, I lowered highs over the Panhandle and southeast Alabama, but don`t be surprised to see more changes there. The much colder air arrives Friday night in our western area. Strong winds will usher in temperatures in the 20s by Saturday morning in southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and areas north of I-10 in the Panhandle. 30s are expected elsewhere. However, with the wind, it will feel more like the teens and 20s for much of the area. It won`t be much better during the day Saturday either with highs only rebounding the mid 30s to low 40s for most of the area. But, the wind will still be blowing with winds of 15-25 mph and gusts of 30-40 mph. There is a low to medium chance (20-50%) of gusts exceeding 40 mph, which would necessitate a Wind Advisory. But these winds will make it feel like the mid 20s to mid 30s for most of the day. In addition to the cold, there is a slight chance (20%) of some precipitation moving in on the backside of the low off the Southeast US. This will have to battle some drier air, but there may be just enough moisture for some light snow or flurries around the Tifton and Fitzgerald areas Saturday afternoon. Confidence isn`t particularly high on this chance, given the battle with dry air. If snow were to occur, accumulations and impacts are not expected. Saturday night will be the coldest night of this event. Widespread lows in the teens with 20s near the coast will result in a widespread hard freeze. Additionally, this will be a long duration freeze, lasting some 15 to 18 hours (or more). This puts extra strain on exposed pipes. Additionally, the wind will still be blowing around 10-15 mph. Nearly the entire area will see wind chill values in the single digits at some point Saturday night and Sunday morning. There is a high chance (60-90%) of wind chills in the single digits Saturday night. This is extremely dangerous cold for this part of the country. Unprotected or unsheltered people may experience hypothermia without adequate warmth. Ensure you`re protecting the 4 Ps from this dangerous cold: People, Pets, Pipes, Plants. Sunday will still be cold and breezy with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Sunday night will feature another hard freeze with lows in the lower to mid 20s and wind chills in the teens. A moderating trend kicks off Monday as ridging tries to build in aloft. Highs will return to the 50s Monday and eventually the 60s by mid week. Lows will also rise from the 20s back to the 30s and 40s by mid week. Another couple shortwaves move across the southeast Tuesday with low chances of some showers by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 VFR conditions continue through much of the TAF period as some high cirrus floats over the region. A weak disturbance slides west to east over the area Friday morning, with the best chance of a quick shower or two in and around KECP. Elsewhere, VFR to MVFR ceilings are forecast to continue through Friday morning. Light easterly to northeasterly winds continue through early Friday morning before turning more southerly ahead of the weak disturbance. && .MARINE... Issued at 104 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will continue today before clocking around out of the east to southeast on Friday. An area of low pressure will move over the marine area Friday a few showers. Behind the low, winds will become northerly to northwesterly and quickly increase to near gale force. Gusts of 40 to 45 kt are becoming increasingly likely, especially in the offshore waters where chances are now medium to high (50 to 80%). This will result in widespread gale conditions across the region, and given the strong winds. Gale Watches are now in effect for the Gulf waters, and it`s likely advisories will be needed even for the St Andrews Bay. Conditions will remain around gale levels through Saturday evening before dropping to below advisory levels late Sunday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 104 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Light and variable winds are expected today as high pressure moves overhead. Some pockets of critically low RH are expected in the southeast Big Bend and east of I-75 in Georgia. Winds around 10 mph become easterly to southeasterly Friday morning, then turn northwesterly in the afternoon as a low pressure system passes to our south. Dispersions both days will be poor for most of the area given the lighter winds and low mixing heights. A few light showers are possible across the area during the day Friday, but this will likely not amount to a wetting rain. Dispersions become very high on Saturday as northwesterly transport winds of 30-40 mph are expected with high mixing heights near 6,000 ft. Even surface winds will be around 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph. RH values will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s as well, resulting in elevated fire concerns for Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 104 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Very little precipitation is forecast over the next 7 days, and there are no flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 59 36 59 36 / 0 0 30 10 Panama City 58 42 60 33 / 0 0 30 10 Dothan 55 34 56 29 / 0 0 20 10 Albany 55 30 56 32 / 0 0 10 20 Valdosta 58 32 59 35 / 0 0 10 20 Cross City 62 33 64 39 / 0 0 10 30 Apalachicola 54 42 61 36 / 0 0 40 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118- 127-128-134-326-426. GA...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161. AL...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning for ALZ065>069. GM...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for GMZ730-755-765-775. Gale Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1258451 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:21 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1218 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 345 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 - A brief respite from frost and freeze conditions tonight and Friday night with near seasonable high temperatures Friday around 70F. - Rare, Significant Arctic Cold Outbreak Arrives Saturday Night. The current forecast calls for low temperatures in the 20s, along with wind chills in the teens, both Sunday and Monday mornings. - Windy conditions develop Saturday afternoon and night with high chance of peak wind gusts 35 to 45 mph. Dangerous Gale conditions are forecast to develop over the Atlantic waters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Today-Fri...High pressure maintains a mostly dry weather pattern with a slow warming trend. Wind flow turns NE today and max temps climb a few degrees from yesterday yet remaining below normal in the 60s under mostly sunny skies. No freeze concerns tonight as temps hold in the 40s except upper 30s far NW with patchy frost. Some moisture will get pulled northward Fri and bring a small shower chance to the Treasure coast, otherwise dry with near seasonable temperatures for a change around 70/low 70s. This warming trend will be short-lived, however. Sat-Wed...Broad area of low pressure is forecast to form very close to Florida Fri night before lifting into the Atlantic and developing into a nor`easter. As it passes by early Saturday, rain chances have lowered especially across the north (now 20%) while still carrying 30-40% south of Orlando. Rainfall amounts look quite meager, less than one tenth /0.10/ of an inch. By late Sat morning and into the afternoon, a cold front passes through the area. The initial impact will be a burst of strong west- northwest winds. Forecast model soundings remain consistent showing peak wind gusts from 35-45 mph for Saturday late afternoon and evening as the low pressure rapidly deepens offshore. Winds veer slightly more out of the northwest on Saturday night, pushing Arctic air down the peninsula with little to no Gulf modification as parcel trajectories originate from the Panhandle and points north. Daily record lows are anticipated on Sunday morning. An additional freeze/hard freeze anticipated on Monday morning. Temperatures only slowly moderate with another freeze Tue morning over the interior. Extreme cold risks have remained consistent over the last several updates: SUNDAY AM: There is a 60-90% chance of a hard freeze (<= 27 deg F) on Sunday morning for all areas except Martin County (20-50%). Much of east central Florida currently has a 70-90% chance of wind chills in the teens with single digit wind chills north of Orlando. MONDAY AM: The risk for a hard freeze (<= 27 deg F) is 50-80% for many locations, except the immediate Space and Treasure Coasts where the probabilities are somewhat lower (30-60%). Bitterly cold wind chills are expected to persist, though with lighter winds (upper teens-mid 20s). As mentioned above, another round of very cold temperatures is forecast on Tuesday morning. For additional cold weather support, including probabilities and durations of specific temperatures for your location, visit weather.gov/mlb/coldsupport. With a widespread freeze and extreme cold event now likely, residents, officials, and agricultural operations should begin considering how to prepare. Those with inadequate shelter or heat will be most affected. Exposed pipes may freeze, and some non- native plants and trees will succumb to the elements if not properly protected. The risk to non-cold-hardy plants and palms is much higher due to the wind-driven cold that is expected. High temperatures on Sunday should hold in the 40s Orlando northward and only reach the lower 50s south of Melbourne despite full sunshine. A gradual (slow) warming trend commences next week with max temps returning to the 60s Tue and lower 70s Wed. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 High pressure nudges eastward today across the SE US. Briefly enhanced N/NW winds this morning will decrease this afternoon and a period of improved conditions is forecast as the high sits nearly overhead late Today into Friday. Low pressure is then expected to form offshore NE Florida by early Sat, and rapidly deepen becoming a strong nor`easter as it moves up the Eastern Seaboard. Dangerous Gale conditions are anticipated by Saturday night in the wake of this storm. High pressure center will move east across the deep South Sunday and Monday and reach the Florida peninsula Tuesday. NW winds 15 kt this morning will become N this afternoon and decrease near 10 knots. Light and variable winds early Fri will become west to southwest 5-10 knots ahead of the front, increasing by Saturday morning to 15-20 kt. Conditions will deteriorate further during Sat with sustained Gale-force winds arriving by Saturday eve. Conditions remain hazardous Sunday with Advisory criteria then a more noticeably improvement Mon and esp Tue. Seas generally 3 ft nearshore today up to 6 ft in the Gulf Stream this morning. Seas 2-3 ft on Friday, building rapidly by Saturday afternoon 7-9 ft offshore and 4-6 ft nearshore. Fully developed seas of 14-16 ft are forecast in the Gulf Stream Sat night/early Sun with sustained Gale conditions and wind gusts approaching Storm-force. Seas will be slow to subside as north wind component persists (albeit decreasing) early next week which should keep seas 7-9 ft Mon in the Gulf Stream. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 1215 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Mostly VFR conditions continue over the next 24 hours. NW/N winds veer NE/ENE during the day 6-12 kts, becoming light/variable to calm this evening/overnight. Winds becoming more WRLY on Fri 5-10 kts. Increasing clouds during the day on Fri, and lowering CIGs along the Treasure Coast. Future shifts may have to monitor for occasional MVFR CIGs here Fri afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 308 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 A developing onshore (NE) wind flow today up to 10 mph will push the lowest RH values deeper over the interior, reaching near 30 percent west of Orlando. Moisture increases Friday and Friday night ahead of a very strong cold front but only isolated to scattered showers are forecast Friday night and early Saturday. Winds will be light Friday, less than 10 mph, becoming westerly ahead of the front. Strong and gusty winds are forecast to develop Saturday afternoon behind the cold front as low pressure deepens off the Southeast US coast. Sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts 35 to 45 mph are forecast Saturday afternoon and night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 45 70 46 57 / 0 0 20 10 MCO 46 71 50 59 / 0 0 20 20 MLB 49 72 47 63 / 0 10 20 20 VRB 48 72 47 64 / 0 10 20 30 LEE 42 70 46 55 / 0 10 20 10 SFB 44 71 47 57 / 0 0 20 10 ORL 45 71 50 57 / 0 0 20 20 FPR 48 72 47 64 / 0 20 20 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164- 247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747. Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264- 347-447-547-647-747. AM...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575. && $$ |
| #1258450 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:18 PM 29.Jan.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1213 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Winter Storm Watches have been issued from late Friday night/early Saturday into Sunday for all but the far northern zones. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Winter Storm Watches have been issued for a majority of the FA for the weekend storm, with northern areas left out. Strong winds and a significant snowfall are expected within the Watch, with highest confidence across southern/SE VA and NE NC. In addition, very strong winds are expected late Saturday and Sunday along the coast, with potentially damaging wind gusts possible. 2) Well below normal temperatures remain through early next week, keeping localized impacts (i.e icy roads) in place through the winter WX this weekend. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for the entire area early this morning and temperatures Friday through Sunday will be even colder and additional headlines will likely be necessary. && .DISCUSSION... As of 335 AM EST Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...While significant disagreement remains amongst the deterministic and ensemble guidance, confidence is high enough to warrant the issuance of a Winter Storm Watch for most of the CWA from late Friday night/early Saturday through Sunday afternoon. The main mode of disagreement continues to be the battle zone between drier air from the N/NW associated with a very strong area of high pressure (~1045 mb) over the Plains, and an intense low pressure system developing off the SE coast late Fri night/Sat. The GFS/GEFS is the NW outlier, wrapping significant amounts of moisture and QPF all the way into central VA, while the ECMWF/GEM are farther south and somewhat more suppressed with this moisture. The 00Z NAM is the opposite solution: almost completely dry other than in far southern VA and NE NC. One trend that continues in most of the models is a "piece" of the sfc high over the Plains ridging SE into the local area Friday into early Saturday, with low pressure across the eastern Gulf coast showing an inverted sfc trough extending north into the southern Appalachians. This has trended to an initial overrunning precip event (all snow) that could begin as early as Friday (but is more probably late Friday night through Saturday morning). For the piedmont, this portion of the storm may account for a majority of the snowfall. SLR values will be very high, 15:1 to 18:1 so even a relatively low amount of QPF could lead to a significant accumulation (which will be efficient on area roads given temperatures well below freezing). Still think the GFS is too far north with this feature (and keeps it maintained into Sat night even after the coastal low rapidly intensifies), so forecasted snow totals are well below what the GFS depicts over the NW 1/2 of the CWA. Part 2 of the storm gets amped up later Saturday, and is expected to peak Saturday night into early Sunday. The models (even the GFS) are all in pretty good agreement that the digging upper trough becomes cutoff as it drops SE from the TN Valley (at 12Z/Sat), to the GA-SC coastal plain by Sat evening (00Z/Sun). The resulting sfc low is forecast to deepen by as much as 15 mb/6 hr Sat evening as it drifts NE off the coast. Therefore, in addition to heavy snowfall, which is of highest confidence across SE VA and NE NC, very strong winds are likely to develop for coastal areas, with winds rather strong even for inland zones. Strong winds and a significant snowfall are expected within the Watch, with highest confidence across southern/SE VA and NE NC. Decided against a Blizzard Watch for the coast, but as timing confidence improves, a Blizzard Warning is certainly plausible for portions of Hampton Roads and coastal NE NC Saturday night/Sunday morning where the winds may be potentially damaging. Our latest snow forecast blends all of this and leads to 1-2" over the far N/NW, with 12"+ in portions of NE NC into VA Beach. As mentioned above, impacts will vary across the region, but the synoptic setup supports the potential for a high-impact winter storm. Additional messaging and headlines will need adjustments over the next few forecast cycles. Please continue to follow the latest forecast. KEY MESSAGE 2...A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for the entire area early this morning, though as has been prevalent the past 3 days, the NBM temperatures have been terrible, verifying nearly 10 degrees too cold in some areas, which is leading to a Cold WX Advsy that has been very marginal with only spotty values down in the single digits. Will maintain the Advisory for now and re-assess over the next few hrs. Otherwise, today will continue to be well below normal with highs struggling to get out of the 20s across the north, with lower 30s south. Wind chills will struggle to rise above the mid teens to mid 20s during the day (coldest on the eastern shore). Tonight will again be very cold, though winds are expected to be light as the sfc ridge of high pressure extends into the area, keeping wind chills near ambient temps that will mostly be in the teens, with some single digit values N and NW. Friday is even colder with highs only in the 20s for most, along with a chc for light snow mainly along and W of I-95. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1210 PM EST Thursday... VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Skies will remain FEW-SCT250 today. Winds are NW at 6-10kt with a few gusts to 18kt along the coast. Winds become NNW to NNE this evening and overnight. Mid level clouds will develop during the later morning to mid-day hours of Friday. Outlook: A winter storm will impact the area later Friday through Sunday. Snow could start across the Piedmont, including FVX and possibly RIC (though lower confidence), Friday afternoon. It`s then expected to spread eastward to include most terminals overnight into Saturday. May become +SN with low VIS Sat night into Sun morning. Winds will also become strong later Sat, with the highest gusts closer to the coast. Widespread flight restrictions are possible with this storm. && .MARINE... As of 155 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories in effect for all local waters this morning. - Storm Watches issued for the Ches. Bay, Lower James, all coastal waters, and the Currituck Sound starting Sat afternoon. Gale Watches issued for the upper tidal rivers. - A Freezing Spray Advisory has been issued for the Chesapeake Bay, coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light, and the upper rivers from tonight into Thu. Additional freezing spray is likely this weekend. Another push of CAA behind a cold front has triggered another surge of northerly winds, primarily over the Chesapeake Bay. Latest obs indicate winds of 15-25kt with a few of the higher sites showing gusts up to 30kt. Similar conditions are present over the rivers and Currituck Sound, but with gusts only 20-25kt. So far, winds are under-performing over the coastal waters with latest obs showing 10- 15kt. SCAs are in effect for all of the marine zones. Despite the under-performance, will leave the SCAs in place for now over the coastal waters in case there`s a sunrise surge as there often is in these scenarios. Otherwise, expecting gradually diminishing NW winds through the day and into tomorrow, though remaining breezy. Seas will be 3-4ft today, then 2-3ft tomorrow. Waves in the bay 2-3ft today and 1-2ft tomorrow. Attention then turns to the increasingly likely significant coastal storm over the weekend. There is high confidence in a strong surface low forming along and traveling up the coast early Saturday through Sunday. The models still have some variation in exact track of the low, but do consistently depict a very tight pressure gradient and drastic pressure changes over a short time period. Still sticking with blended guidance at this point since the high res models are still mostly out of range. this morning`s forecast package has not changed much since yesterday afternoon`s forecast, but am feeling more confident in it. NNE look to gradually increase through the day Saturday, reaching gale force gusts across most waters Saturday afternoon. Winds continue to increase Sat night, then peak Sunday morning. This peak would be 35-45kt over the bay, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters with gusts 50-60kt. The upper rivers would be a bit lower, but still well within Gale range. This forecast is supported by local wind probs, which have 80-85% for 48kt+ wind gusts for the southern coastal waters and 50-70% in the bay and northern coastal waters. Did go ahead and put up Storm Watches for the Bay, lower James, coastal waters, and Currituck Sound starting Saturday afternoon and going into Sunday night. Went with Gale Watches for the upper rivers starting Sat evening. Seas during this period will be 8-12ft. Waves in the bay climb to 7-8ft. Lastly, periods of light freezing spray are expected through the end of the week due to cold water/air temperatures and gusty winds. Moderate freezing spray over the weekend will likely require Freezing Spray Advisories. Tides/Coastal Flooding... Given the strength of the low coinciding with higher astronomical tides, widespread coastal flooding is increasingly likely this weekend. Early indications are for moderate to locally major coastal flooding across the Mouth of the Bay and the Virginia Beach and Currituck Outer Banks coastline, with minor to moderate coastal flooding possible elsewhere. With a strong northerly wind, locations in the upper bay could actually see low water during this period. The worst coastal flooding conditions look to be Sat night into Sun. && .CLIMATE... Record Low Max Temperatures for Sat Jan 31: - RIC: 23 (1948) - ORF: 25 (1936) - SBY: 24 (2019) - ECG: 29 (1965) Daily Record Snowfall for Sat Jan 31 and Sun Feb 1: - Date: Sat Jan 31 Sun Feb 1 - RIC: 7.0" (1948) 3.1" (1948) - ORF: 4.0" (1980) 4.0" (1910) - SBY: 4.0" (2010) 4.0" (1962) - ECG: 5.0" (1980) 7.0" (1948) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for MDZ023>025. NC...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. VA...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for VAZ099. Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for VAZ092-093-095>098-100-524-525. Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon for VAZ060-061-065>069-079-087. Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for VAZ076>078-080>086-088>090-512>520-522-523. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ630. Freezing Spray Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634. Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for ANZ630-631-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ631- 632-634-656-658. Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for ANZ632>634-638-656-658. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652-654. Freezing Spray Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652-654. && $$ |
| #1258449 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1046 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... High likelihood for a winter storm to develop along the Southeast coast this weekend, bringing moderate to major impacts to Eastern North Carolina. Winter Storm Watches have been issued for all of Eastern North Carolina. Storm Watches have been issued for all marine zones save for the Pamlico and Pungo Rivers (Gale Watch) starting Saturday evening. A High Wind Watch has been issued for the Northern Outer Banks and Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands starting Saturday evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) High likelihood for a strong winter storm to bring significant accumulating snowfall, blowing and drifting snow due to strong winds, and coastal flooding. 2) More extreme cold is expected behind the winter storm, with wind chills likely falling below 0 Sunday and Monday mornings. 3) MARINE...Potential for extremely dangerous marine conditions this weekend as a low pressure system deepens rapidly off the NC coast. Storm conditions are likely with the potential for Hurricane Force wind gusts. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...All signs continue to point to an impactful winter storm developing near the Carolinas this weekend with increasing confidence of at least several inches of accumulating snow. Additionally, the rapidly deepening low will produce very strong winds across the area (35-50 mph inland and 50-65 mph along the coast), which could lead to power outages, reduced visibilities, and potentially blizzard conditions along the coast. A deep positively tilted upper level trough will dig across the Plains later this week, becoming neutral to negatively tilted this weekend as it crosses the ECONUS. A southern stream shortwave originating from the Pacific northwest will track south and east across the Gulf states late this week and into this weekend while a northern stream shortwave will simultaneously dive into the SECONUS from the Hudson Bay. These features are forecast to result in surface cyclogenesis off the SE coast this weekend. These shortwaves are expected to phase together, allowing the low to rapidly intensify as it moves northeast near the coast of the Carolinas. Precipitation may start as early as Friday night with snow across the coastal plain, a rain/snow mix along the coast, and rain along the OBX. All P-types are expected to change over to snow Saturday night and continue into Sunday morning, and this is when the heaviest accumulations will occur. Northwest winds will ramp up Saturday night and peak early Sunday, causing blowing and drifting snow and potentially blizzard conditions along the coast. Wind chills will also be dangerously cold during this time, bottoming out in the sub-zero to single digit range, and low temperatures may flirt with records. The WPC Winter Storm Severity Index now shows a greater than 95% chance of moderate impacts and a 70-80% chance of major impacts across Eastern North Carolina. For the majority of Eastern North Carolina, there`s a 85-95% chance of more than 4", a 60-80% chance of more than 8", and a 35-55% chance of more than 12". Guidance continues to hit northeastern zones (north of HWY 264 and east of HWY 17) as the sweet spot for higher accumulations, showing a 80-90% chance of >4", 40-60% chance of >8", and 50-70% chance of >12". Historically, this storm`s setup is most like the December 24, 1989 and early March 1980 storms. Both of these historic events produced 12+" of snow for Eastern North Carolina with accumulations from the March 1980 storm nearing 24" in some areas. While there`s potential for this weekend`s snow accumulations to be comparable to these past events, keep in mind that we`re still more than 48 hours out from when the heaviest snow is expected to fall, which means there`s still room for adjustments (up or down) in the accumulation forecast. However, with the probabilities of higher snow amounts consistently going up, the higher end amounts should not be taken lightly when thinking about storm preparation. No matter how much snow falls, it will not melt quickly due to the extremely cold air that will build in behind this system. Temperatures aren`t expected to approach freezing until Monday, but some areas may not get above freezing until Tuesday. A High Wind Watch has been issued for the Outer Banks from Duck to Ocracoke from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon and a Wind Advisory will eventually be needed for coastal counties. Gusts will be 50-65 mph along the Outer Banks and 35-50 mph inland. Due to these powerful winds, moderate to locally significant coastal flooding impacts will be possible, both soundside and oceanside. This could lead to travel impacts for vulnerable portions of NC-12, especially for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. This storm will also coincide with a higher tide cycle, which will exacerbate coastal flooding impacts, especially along the Outer Banks. Coastal Flood Watches and High Surf Advisories will be needed for portions of the area in future updates. Preparations you can take at this time: Have emergency supplies in your home and your car, check your smoke and carbon monoxide detectors, and replenish fuel for your car and heating sources. Make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings, you`re stocked up on food, water, and medications, and make plans to bring your pets inside from the extreme cold. KEY MESSAGE 2... Extremely cold air will stick around behind the winter storm with the potential to set additional new record low temperatures Monday and Tuesday mornings. Lows will be in the low tens to low 20s Sunday night/Monday morning with dangerously cold wind chills in the sub- zero to single digit range. High temperatures will approach freezing on Monday, but it`s possible some inland areas to remain below freezing from tomorrow night until Tuesday. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions with mo sunny skies through today. N to NW`rly breezes today with gusts upwards of 10-15 kt at times. NW winds and gusts relax tonight as high pressure builds back in. Outlook: VFR conditions will likely continue through Friday as cold high pressure remains in place. This weekend, an extended period of poor flying conditions as a coastal low develops and brings significant snow, poor visibilities, and potential blowing and drifting snow due to wind gusts of 35-40 kt to inland East NC. && .MARINE... Current SCAs will drop this afternoon as NW winds decrease to 10-15 kt and seas subside to 3-5 ft. Benign marine conditions will then persist until Friday night. Outlook: A rapidly deepening low pressure system will produce extremely dangerous marine conditions this weekend. Storm force winds are likely with the potential for Hurricane Force wind gusts, especially near the Gulf Stream waters. Seas could reach 12-20 ft. Storm Watches have been issued for all marine zones save for the Pamlico and Pungo Rivers (Gale Watch) starting Saturday evening. Conditions will slowly improve Sunday night with winds forecast to drop below SCA criteria by Monday afternoon. 6+ ft seas may linger well into Tuesday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196- 198-199-203. High Wind Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for NCZ203>205. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for NCZ204-205. MARINE...Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for AMZ131-137. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135. Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for AMZ135-154-156-230-231. Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for AMZ136. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ150- 156-158. Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for AMZ150-152. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152- 154. Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for AMZ158. && $$ |
| #1258448 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1033 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Rain chances will increase tonight and Friday. -A strong cold front will blast through the Florida Keys on Saturday, with a line of showers expected along and just ahead of the frontal passage. -Very cold and windy conditions are expected Saturday evening through at least Monday morning. A Wind Advisory and/or a Cold Weather Advisory may be required for portions or all of the Keys. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1033 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 A little bit of a deja vu this morning but also a pleasant return of sunshine. A narrow convergence zone across the eastern half of the Straits of Florida, extending from near Bimini to Cay Sal Bank is producing some shallow showers. Otherwise, skies are relatively much clearer compared to 24 hours ago and we are enjoying a bit more sunshine. Remnants of a nocturnal surge are quickly subsiding and this downward trend in winds will continue into the afternoon. As such, we have been able to drop Small Craft Advisories across all waters this morning and have replaced them Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines. A shortwave centered at the 850-700 mb mean layer moved out of Texas and across the Gulf basin over the last several days. As this feature moved east southeast and across the Florida Keys, it devolved into a trough. This trough however, looks to regain some life tonight as it stalls over or just south of the western half of Cuba. This will allow winds in this layer to quickly clock around from the southeast and help transport moisture northward tonight into Friday. Models are sluggish but hint that a weak surface feature may attempt to form. This is leading to increasing confidence that we could see measurable rainfall over the next 24 to 48 hours ahead of the main weather maker. Said weather maker is currently across western OK this morning and will be barreling southeast over the next 72 hours. Confidence continues to be high that the Florida Keys will see multiple impacts, including wind, marine, cold, and possibly coastal flood. Stay tune for future updates!! && .MARINE... Issued at 1033 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 A nocturnal surge overnight is showing signs of slackening and this downward trend will continue for most of our coastal waters. Therefore, the Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled. That being said, moderate to fresh breezes will persist across the Straits of Florida and Small Craft Should Continue to Exercise Caution. A weak surface trough will begin taking shape along and just north of the Cuban coast overnight into Friday. This will lead to increasing coverage for showers and maintain moderate to occasionally fresh breezes across the Straits of Florida. This feature is not associated with the next weather system and still expecting a very strong cold front to sweep through over the weekend with significant marine impacts expected. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1033 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 VFR conditions expected through the period. An occasional MVFR CIG may sneak in across the island terminals but does not look to necessitate the need for a TEMPO group at this time. Otherwise, an inverted surface trough looks to develop late tonight, increasing rain chances, especially from MTH and eastward. Will reassess rain potential for the 18Z TAF. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 500 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Synoptic-scale geopotential height analysis continues to depict a stubborn omega blocking pattern extending across the CONUS. A strong ridge continues to bridge over the western third of the United States, with a series of shortwave troughs pivoting to the west in the eastern North Pacific and over the Eastern Seaboard to the east of the ridge. Meanwhile, at the surface, a stationary front extends from the Yucatan northeastward to the central North Atlantic, with a sprawling area of high pressure over the Gulf States. The interaction of the high with the frontal boundary continues to support moderate to occasionally fresh northerly breezes across the Florida Keys at this early morning hour. Widespread mid-level cloud cover, in combination with the elevated winds, has limited the diurnal temperature signal for most island communities, with temperatures currently in the mid to upper 50s, only a few degrees cooler than the well below normal maxima observed Wedneday afternoon. For today through Friday, the aforementioned stationary front will slowly drift northward. Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure may form along this front, drifting northeastward towards the Bahamas late tonight and Friday. Isentropic analysis on the 290K surface supports large-scale ascent at around 850 mb, with forecast soundings depicting ample boundary layer moisture and decent veering (warm advection). This seems to support a period of scattered light to moderate showers in the vicinity of the Florida Keys for these forecast periods, consistent with most available convective allowing model (CAM) guidance. Elected to nudge measurable rain chances to mid-level chance levels (30-40%) for tonight and Friday. Our attention then quickly turns to the weekend. Global ensemble mean and member fields are in fantastic agreement that a shortwave trough diving into the Mid-Atlantic will support rapid surface cyclogenesis off the Carolina Coast Saturday and Sunday. This is a textbook setup for an arctic invasion for the Florida Peninsula. All available numerical weather prediction and statistical guidance suggests temperatures plummeting Saturday evening through Monday into levels the Florida Keys have not seen since around 2010. The tight pressure gradient of the cyclone off the Carolinas interacting with building high pressure in the wake of the front will support very windy conditions. Coupled with the cool temperatures, rare Cold Weather Advisories may be required for portions or all of the Florida Keys Saturday night and Sunday night, with wind chills easily dipping into the 30s. As the large-scale synoptic pattern (at least temporarily) flattens by the middle to the latter part of next week, temperatures will slowly moderate closer to near-normal levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 67 61 68 62 / 10 40 30 20 Marathon 66 62 68 62 / 10 40 40 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1258447 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:36 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 834 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 833 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 - Another intense arctic blast likely arrives by Saturday with more hard freezes and dangerous wind chills returning. Wind chills in the single digits are becoming increasingly likely (60 to 90% chance). Continue to monitor this potential for dangerous cold as we approach the weekend. - There is a high (90%) chance of gale conditions over the waters late Friday into Saturday. Very dangerous marine conditions are expected with gusts up to 40 knots and building seas. && .UPDATE... Issued at 833 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 The forecast is on track with no adjustments needed. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 104 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 High pressure moves overhead today with tranquil weather expected. Highs will be in the mid 50s to low 60s with light winds. Moisture will be on the increase tonight with some clouds moving in late. Thus, tonight will be "warmer" than previous nights with 30s inland and near 40 along the coast. Big changes come in the Long Term. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 104 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 In the mid and upper-levels, a weak shortwave moves across the Southeast on Friday before a much more potent trough drops across the southeast US Friday night into Saturday. At the surface, an area of low pressure moves across the Gulf Coast Friday, then begins to deepen off the Southeast US coast Saturday into Sunday. Meanwhile, strong high pressure drops into the Great Plains Saturday and into the Mid-South Sunday. For Friday, as the low moves overhead, we`ll have a few scattered showers during the morning and afternoon. However, there`s some dry air in the low levels still lingering, so we don`t expect much measurable rain. That dry air complicates the temperature forecast a bit too. As the rain falls in that dry layer near the surface, we may see some evaporative cooling take place, which would keep areas in the Panhandle and southeast Alabama in the 40s to low 50s on Friday given cloud cover hanging around. This is reflected in some of the hi- res model guidance this evening. If the clouds break a bit, then temperatures may warm back up into the upper 50s. There is quite a bit of uncertainty with temperature spread in the HREF guidance of 8 degrees between the 25th and 75th percentiles Friday afternoon. To lean more into hi-res guidance, I lowered highs over the Panhandle and southeast Alabama, but don`t be surprised to see more changes there. The much colder air arrives Friday night in our western area. Strong winds will usher in temperatures in the 20s by Saturday morning in southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and areas north of I-10 in the Panhandle. 30s are expected elsewhere. However, with the wind, it will feel more like the teens and 20s for much of the area. It won`t be much better during the day Saturday either with highs only rebounding the mid 30s to low 40s for most of the area. But, the wind will still be blowing with winds of 15-25 mph and gusts of 30-40 mph. There is a low to medium chance (20-50%) of gusts exceeding 40 mph, which would necessitate a Wind Advisory. But these winds will make it feel like the mid 20s to mid 30s for most of the day. In addition to the cold, there is a slight chance (20%) of some precipitation moving in on the backside of the low off the Southeast US. This will have to battle some drier air, but there may be just enough moisture for some light snow or flurries around the Tifton and Fitzgerald areas Saturday afternoon. Confidence isn`t particularly high on this chance, given the battle with dry air. If snow were to occur, accumulations and impacts are not expected. Saturday night will be the coldest night of this event. Widespread lows in the teens with 20s near the coast will result in a widespread hard freeze. Additionally, this will be a long duration freeze, lasting some 15 to 18 hours (or more). This puts extra strain on exposed pipes. Additionally, the wind will still be blowing around 10-15 mph. Nearly the entire area will see wind chill values in the single digits at some point Saturday night and Sunday morning. There is a high chance (60-90%) of wind chills in the single digits Saturday night. This is extremely dangerous cold for this part of the country. Unprotected or unsheltered people may experience hypothermia without adequate warmth. Ensure you`re protecting the 4 Ps from this dangerous cold: People, Pets, Pipes, Plants. Sunday will still be cold and breezy with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Sunday night will feature another hard freeze with lows in the lower to mid 20s and wind chills in the teens. A moderating trend kicks off Monday as ridging tries to build in aloft. Highs will return to the 50s Monday and eventually the 60s by mid week. Lows will also rise from the 20s back to the 30s and 40s by mid week. Another couple shortwaves move across the southeast Tuesday with low chances of some showers by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with only some high level clouds expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 104 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will continue today before clocking around out of the east to southeast on Friday. An area of low pressure will move over the marine area Friday a few showers. Behind the low, winds will become northerly to northwesterly and quickly increase to near gale force. Gusts of 40 to 45 kt are becoming increasingly likely, especially in the offshore waters where chances are now medium to high (50 to 80%). This will result in widespread gale conditions across the region, and given the strong winds. Gale Watches are now in effect for the Gulf waters, and it`s likely advisories will be needed even for the St Andrews Bay. Conditions will remain around gale levels through Saturday evening before dropping to below advisory levels late Sunday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 104 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Light and variable winds are expected today as high pressure moves overhead. Some pockets of critically low RH are expected in the southeast Big Bend and east of I-75 in Georgia. Winds around 10 mph become easterly to southeasterly Friday morning, then turn northwesterly in the afternoon as a low pressure system passes to our south. Dispersions both days will be poor for most of the area given the lighter winds and low mixing heights. A few light showers are possible across the area during the day Friday, but this will likely not amount to a wetting rain. Dispersions become very high on Saturday as northwesterly transport winds of 30-40 mph are expected with high mixing heights near 6,000 ft. Even surface winds will be around 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph. RH values will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s as well, resulting in elevated fire concerns for Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 104 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Very little precipitation is forecast over the next 7 days, and there are no flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 59 36 59 36 / 0 0 30 10 Panama City 58 42 60 33 / 0 0 30 10 Dothan 55 34 56 29 / 0 0 20 10 Albany 55 30 56 32 / 0 0 10 20 Valdosta 58 32 59 35 / 0 0 10 20 Cross City 62 33 64 39 / 0 0 10 30 Apalachicola 54 42 61 36 / 0 0 40 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for GMZ730-755-765-775. Gale Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1258446 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 718 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Winter Storm Watches have been issued from late Friday night/early Saturday into Sunday for all but the far northern zones. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Winter Storm Watches have been issued for a majority of the FA for the weekend storm, with northern areas left out. Strong winds and a significant snowfall are expected within the Watch, with highest confidence across southern/SE VA and NE NC. In addition, very strong winds are expected late Saturday and Sunday along the coast, with potentially damaging wind gusts possible. 2) Well below normal temperatures remain through early next week, keeping localized impacts (i.e icy roads) in place through the winter WX this weekend. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for the entire area early this morning and temperatures Friday through Sunday will be even colder and additional headlines will likely be necessary. && .DISCUSSION... As of 335 AM EST Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...While significant disagreement remains amongst the deterministic and ensemble guidance, confidence is high enough to warrant the issuance of a Winter Storm Watch for most of the CWA from late Friday night/early Saturday through Sunday afternoon. The main mode of disagreement continues to be the battle zone between drier air from the N/NW associated with a very strong area of high pressure (~1045 mb) over the Plains, and an intense low pressure system developing off the SE coast late Fri night/Sat. The GFS/GEFS is the NW outlier, wrapping significant amounts of moisture and QPF all the way into central VA, while the ECMWF/GEM are farther south and somewhat more suppressed with this moisture. The 00Z NAM is the opposite solution: almost completely dry other than in far southern VA and NE NC. One trend that continues in most of the models is a "piece" of the sfc high over the Plains ridging SE into the local area Friday into early Saturday, with low pressure across the eastern Gulf coast showing an inverted sfc trough extending north into the southern Appalachians. This has trended to an initial overrunning precip event (all snow) that could begin as early as Friday (but is more probably late Friday night through Saturday morning). For the piedmont, this portion of the storm may account for a majority of the snowfall. SLR values will be very high, 15:1 to 18:1 so even a relatively low amount of QPF could lead to a significant accumulation (which will be efficient on area roads given temperatures well below freezing). Still think the GFS is too far north with this feature (and keeps it maintained into Sat night even after the coastal low rapidly intensifies), so forecasted snow totals are well below what the GFS depicts over the NW 1/2 of the CWA. Part 2 of the storm gets amped up later Saturday, and is expected to peak Saturday night into early Sunday. The models (even the GFS) are all in pretty good agreement that the digging upper trough becomes cutoff as it drops SE from the TN Valley (at 12Z/Sat), to the GA-SC coastal plain by Sat evening (00Z/Sun). The resulting sfc low is forecast to deepen by as much as 15 mb/6 hr Sat evening as it drifts NE off the coast. Therefore, in addition to heavy snowfall, which is of highest confidence across SE VA and NE NC, very strong winds are likely to develop for coastal areas, with winds rather strong even for inland zones. Strong winds and a significant snowfall are expected within the Watch, with highest confidence across southern/SE VA and NE NC. Decided against a Blizzard Watch for the coast, but as timing confidence improves, a Blizzard Warning is certainly plausible for portions of Hampton Roads and coastal NE NC Saturday night/Sunday morning where the winds may be potentially damaging. Our latest snow forecast blends all of this and leads to 1-2" over the far N/NW, with 12"+ in portions of NE NC into VA Beach. As mentioned above, impacts will vary across the region, but the synoptic setup supports the potential for a high-impact winter storm. Additional messaging and headlines will need adjustments over the next few forecast cycles. Please continue to follow the latest forecast. KEY MESSAGE 2...A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for the entire area early this morning, though as has been prevalent the past 3 days, the NBM temperatures have been terrible, verifying nearly 10 degrees too cold in some areas, which is leading to a Cold WX Advsy that has been very marginal with only spotty values down in the single digits. Will maintain the Advisory for now and re-assess over the next few hrs. Otherwise, today will continue to be well below normal with highs struggling to get out of the 20s across the north, with lower 30s south. Wind chills will struggle to rise above the mid teens to mid 20s during the day (coldest on the eastern shore). Tonight will again be very cold, though winds are expected to be light as the sfc ridge of high pressure extends into the area, keeping wind chills near ambient temps that will mostly be in the teens, with some single digit values N and NW. Friday is even colder with highs only in the 20s for most, along with a chc for light snow mainly along and W of I-95. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 700 AM EST Thursday... VFR conditions will persist through the 12z/29 TAF period. Skies are mostly clear with NNW winds of 5-10 kt or less inland and with locations closer to the coast, including ORF and ECG, will see gusts of ~20 kt early before diminishing. SBY will se gusts to 20-25 kt late this morning and aftn. Increasing mid clouds tonight. Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions persist through Friday across the area. Continue to watch a developing coastal low, which is forecast to strengthen Saturday/Saturday night. This system will likely create another round of winter weather for the terminals, especially later Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Exact impacts and locations aren`t clear yet, but widespread flight restrictions are likely during this timeframe. Strong winds are likely to develop at least for coastal terminals with this storm, particularly Saturday night and early Sunday with gusts of 40 kt+. Elevated winds are expected farther inland, gusting to 20-30 kt. Slowly improving conditions are expected later Sunday into Monday as winds diminish and VFR returns from W to E. && .MARINE... As of 155 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories in effect for all local waters this morning. - Storm Watches issued for the Ches. Bay, Lower James, all coastal waters, and the Currituck Sound starting Sat afternoon. Gale Watches issued for the upper tidal rivers. - A Freezing Spray Advisory has been issued for the Chesapeake Bay, coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light, and the upper rivers from tonight into Thu. Additional freezing spray is likely this weekend. Another push of CAA behind a cold front has triggered another surge of northerly winds, primarily over the Chesapeake Bay. Latest obs indicate winds of 15-25kt with a few of the higher sites showing gusts up to 30kt. Similar conditions are present over the rivers and Currituck Sound, but with gusts only 20-25kt. So far, winds are under-performing over the coastal waters with latest obs showing 10- 15kt. SCAs are in effect for all of the marine zones. Despite the under-performance, will leave the SCAs in place for now over the coastal waters in case there`s a sunrise surge as there often is in these scenarios. Otherwise, expecting gradually diminishing NW winds through the day and into tomorrow, though remaining breezy. Seas will be 3-4ft today, then 2-3ft tomorrow. Waves in the bay 2-3ft today and 1-2ft tomorrow. Attention then turns to the increasingly likely significant coastal storm over the weekend. There is high confidence in a strong surface low forming along and traveling up the coast early Saturday through Sunday. The models still have some variation in exact track of the low, but do consistently depict a very tight pressure gradient and drastic pressure changes over a short time period. Still sticking with blended guidance at this point since the high res models are still mostly out of range. this morning`s forecast package has not changed much since yesterday afternoon`s forecast, but am feeling more confident in it. NNE look to gradually increase through the day Saturday, reaching gale force gusts across most waters Saturday afternoon. Winds continue to increase Sat night, then peak Sunday morning. This peak would be 35-45kt over the bay, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters with gusts 50-60kt. The upper rivers would be a bit lower, but still well within Gale range. This forecast is supported by local wind probs, which have 80-85% for 48kt+ wind gusts for the southern coastal waters and 50-70% in the bay and northern coastal waters. Did go ahead and put up Storm Watches for the Bay, lower James, coastal waters, and Currituck Sound starting Saturday afternoon and going into Sunday night. Went with Gale Watches for the upper rivers starting Sat evening. Seas during this period will be 8-12ft. Waves in the bay climb to 7-8ft. Lastly, periods of light freezing spray are expected through the end of the week due to cold water/air temperatures and gusty winds. Moderate freezing spray over the weekend will likely require Freezing Spray Advisories. Tides/Coastal Flooding... Given the strength of the low coinciding with higher astronomical tides, widespread coastal flooding is increasingly likely this weekend. Early indications are for moderate to locally major coastal flooding across the Mouth of the Bay and the Virginia Beach and Currituck Outer Banks coastline, with minor to moderate coastal flooding possible elsewhere. With a strong northerly wind, locations in the upper bay could actually see low water during this period. The worst coastal flooding conditions look to be Sat night into Sun. && .CLIMATE... Record Low Max Temperatures for Sat Jan 31: - RIC: 23 (1948) - ORF: 25 (1936) - SBY: 24 (2019) - ECG: 29 (1965) Daily Record Snowfall for Sat Jan 31 and Sun Feb 1: - Date: Sat Jan 31 Sun Feb 1 - RIC: 7.0" (1948) 3.1" (1948) - ORF: 4.0" (1980) 4.0" (1910) - SBY: 4.0" (2010) 4.0" (1962) - ECG: 5.0" (1980) 7.0" (1948) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MDZ021>025. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for MDZ023>025. NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for VAZ099. Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for VAZ092-093-095>098-100-524-525. Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon for VAZ060-061-065>069-079-087. Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for VAZ076>078-080>086-088>090-512>520-522-523. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ630. Freezing Spray Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634. Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for ANZ630-631-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ631- 632-634-656-658. Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for ANZ632>634-638-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ633. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652-654. Freezing Spray Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652-654. && $$ |
| #1258445 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:51 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 634 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 631 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 - Below average temperatures continue across South Florida. Cold apparent temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s are forecast for Glades/Hendry/Inland Collier early this morning, with Cold Weather Advisories in effect. - Freezing temperatures as low as 31 degrees are possible early this morning for Glades County where a Freeze Warning is in effect. - Low relative humidities each afternoon this week across interior South Florida and Southwest Florida could result in periods of enhanced fire behavior. - A potentially record breaking cold snap is possible late weekend into early next week as another strong cold front passes through the area. Near freezing to sub-freezing low temperatures are possible for a large area of South Florida early Sunday, Monday and Tuesday morning. Lows in the 30s could reach as far South as Miami Dade County with wind chills in the 20s across all of South Florida. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 After a somewhat dreary and cloudy Wednesday, Thursday and Friday should bring more sunshine across all of South Florida. While early morning temperatures are expected to be quite cold again, the afternoon hours should be quite pleasant with most of South Florida warming up into the 70s. Overnight temperatures tonight into Friday will remain warmer than the previous few days as well. Expect upper 50s to low 60s along the east coast with mid 40s to lower 50s for interior and Southwest Florida. On Friday, a weak area of low pressure will cross the Florida peninsula which could bring a few more clouds and scattered showers during the afternoon hours. Winds will begin to shift from the northeast to the northwest through the day as the next hotly anticipated cold front approaches from the north. Aside from a few showers during the afternoon, Friday should be fairly pleasant as well with highs in the lower 70s. Lows overnight into Saturday will reach the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 The aforementioned area of low pressure enters the western Atlantic on Saturday and will begin to rapidly deepen as it pushes towards the northeast. This system will send a strong cold front across South Florida on Saturday afternoon which will act to reinforce the cooler air mass across the area. The coolest and driest air mass of the season thus far arrives early Sunday morning with potentially widespread freezing or near freezing low temperatures across South Florida. Northwest flow prevails behind the strong front, which will advect a dry arctic continental air mass down the Florida peninsula all day on Sunday. Sunday night into Monday morning could be even colder as cold air advection is maximized, and maritime modification to the air mass is minimized, or nearly non-existent. Low temperatures could be so cold early Sunday and early Monday that Extreme Cold Warnings may be needed around Lake Okeechobee with potential Freeze Warnings extending much further south than the earlier cold snaps this season. Afternoon high temperatures on Sunday and Monday may not reach much higher than the mid 50s. Trends have been closely monitored and will continue to be monitored through the week although confidence is slowly increasing that this could be the coldest Attic snap across South Florida since December 2010. Temperatures begin to rebound on Tuesday morning but will still dip into the lower 30s to lower 40s across all of South Florida although Tuesday afternoon we may finally be able to reach the 60s during the afternoon. On Wednesday afternoon, high temperatures (finally) are able to climb back into the 70s. Visit our website for graphical temperature forecasts (hover over `Forecast` and then click `Cold Weather` OR `Other Probabilistic Forecast Graphics`). Describing temperatures across every part of the forecast area through text is a bit clunky and images make the message much clearer. While the anomalous temperature forecast continues to steal the show, surface winds behind this cold front will be quite significant as well. Winds will increase out of the northwest on Saturday afternoon between 15-25 mph over land with potential gusts to around 40 mph through Sunday morning. A Wind Advisory is not out of the question for this time period, and this potential will continue to be monitored. Regardless, it would be wise to secure any light outdoor objects that may become projectiles prior to this weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 VFR conditions are forecast to prevail for all sites through the period. Generally northwesterly winds this morning will gradually become more northeasterly as the day progresses, later becoming light and variable overnight. A few quick showers could develop along the East Coast later this afternoon, but coverage and probabilities remain too low to be mentionable on the TAFs. && .MARINE... Issued at 1152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 Conditions across local waters continue to improve today and Friday before they will once again rapidly deteriorate on Saturday. NNE flow between 15-20 kts will prevail today, weakening to 10-15 kts on Friday. Friday night into early Saturday, winds will veer to a more westerly direction across all local waters increasing to 30-40 kts by late Saturday night. Gusts during this time period could reach 40-50 kts. Gale watches/warnings will be explored over the coming forecast cycles. Wave heights will peak with the winds late Saturday night into early sunday warning with heights of 10-12 feet across both Gulf and Atlantic waters. Winds and waves will slowly subside through the afternoon and evening on Sunday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 A moderate risk of rip currents continues at all Atlantic beaches through the end of the week. Rip current probabilities are poised to increase behind a cold front passage late this weekend into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 71 61 70 56 / 0 10 40 20 West Kendall 72 55 72 52 / 0 10 40 20 Opa-Locka 72 58 72 55 / 0 10 40 20 Homestead 72 60 72 55 / 0 20 40 20 Fort Lauderdale 71 61 70 56 / 0 10 40 30 N Ft Lauderdale 71 60 70 55 / 0 10 40 20 Pembroke Pines 72 58 72 55 / 0 10 40 20 West Palm Beach 70 58 70 54 / 0 10 20 20 Boca Raton 71 59 71 55 / 0 10 30 20 Naples 71 53 70 56 / 0 0 10 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ063-066- 070. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ063. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1258444 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 640 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Very cold temperatures and frost possible early this morning away from the coast. - Even colder air arrives Saturday night, with widespread hard freeze conditions and low wind chills each morning into early next week. - Extremely hazardous marine conditions and a high risk of strong rip currents at area beaches this weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 639 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1133 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 Canadian high pressure will hold over west central and southwest Florida today with continued cold conditions. The day will begin with sub freezing temperatures across the nature coast and near to slightly above freezing temperatures central and south away from the coast. Widespread frost is likely across the nature coast with areas of frost central...and possibly as far south as interior Charlotte county...with patchy frost possible in northeast Lee county. Mostly sunny skies on Thursday but continued very cool with high temperatures generally in the 60s. The area of high pressure will begin to move away from the region tonight with temperatures beginning to moderate...but conditions will remain cold with lows in the mid to upper 30s north...lower to mid 40s central...and mid to upper 40s south. Areas of frost will develop across the nature coast during the late night/early morning hours. Temperatures will warm a bit on Friday as the airmass continues to modify with high temperatures in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Mostly sunny skies for a majority of the forecast area, but could see an increase in cloudiness across southwest Florida as an area of low pressure begins to develop off the southeast Florida coast along a strong baroclinic zone. This will be in response to a strong U/L trough/disturbance that is expected to dig sharply over the Tennessee Valley on Saturday. Simultaneously, strong Canadian high pressure will build down over the Central Plains with an associated leading cold front expected to push across the Florida peninsula on Saturday...with a chance of showers Friday night and Saturday across the forecast area. The area of low pressure east of the state will intensify and lift northeast with redevelopment off the Carolina coast late Saturday and Saturday night. A very tight pressure gradient will develop over the eastern Gulf and Florida peninsula Saturday and Saturday night in the wake of the front...a result of the significant pressure difference between the rapidly intensifying coastal storm off the Carolina coast and the strong Canadian high pressure system over the Central Plains. As the cold front moves across the forecast area on Saturday, temperatures will likely be falling (or at best holding steady) across the region during the afternoon hours. Northwest winds of 15 to 25 MPH will develop across west central and southwest Florida with higher gusts likely, especially near the coast. There will be a number of hazards associated with this sequence of events that run from low probability of occurrence to a very high probability of occurrence. Starting with the highest likelihood of occurrence: - Extremely hazardous marine conditions will develop over the weekend and a Gale Watch may be issued later today. A gale warning will likely be issued on Friday for the coastal waters for the period of Saturday and Saturday night, and potentially into Sunday morning. Also, can`t rule out a few gusts to storm force. - The arctic air will also usher in the coldest temperatures of the year. Freeze warnings will likely be needed for much of the forecast area both Saturday night and Sunday night. A hard freeze will be possible across the nature coast Saturday night and Sunday night with lows in the lower to mid 20s each night. Temperatures across the interior are expected to be in the mid to upper 20s both nights...with lower to mid 30s near the coast and across southwest Florida. Gusty northwest winds will create wind chills Saturday night in the teens across the nature coast...with single digits possible mainly across Levy and Citrus counties. Wind chills are expected to be in the teens to lower 20s across the interior. and generally in the 20s elsewhere. The wind is expected to taper off Sunday night, with wind chills generally about 3 to 5 degrees below the ambient temperature. - Temperatures will be running about 20 to 25 degrees below climatic normals Saturday night through Sunday night. Could see some record low temperatures set Saturday night/Sunday morning across the region...some low max temperature records set on Sunday...and some record low temperatures again Sunday night/Monday morning. - Along area beaches, very strong rip currents are expected to develop Saturday through Sunday. There is also a low to moderate probability of high surf. - The strong northwest winds may also create water levels along the coast from Citrus to northern Pinellas county to run 1 to 2 feet above astronomical normal tide levels Saturday and Saturday night. This is also in the low to moderate probability of occurrence. - The strong winds and CAA over the coastal waters will create a very unstable turbulent boundary layer. Residual low level moisture will likely allow an area of cold air strato-cu to develop over the eastern Gulf on Saturday and Saturday night. With these extreme conditions in place, it would be expected to see a few light showers or sprinkles to develop over the coastal waters...Gulf effect type light showers. The backside or northern extent of the cloud shield could see temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 30s Saturday evening and after midnight...which could allow the light rain showers to become light mixed snow/rain showers or snow showers/flurries. Trajectories would indicate that the clouds may advect locally onshore...with the best chance of seeing frozen precipitation from Citrus to Pinellas/Hillsborough counties. This is a low probability event...but not out of the realm of possibility. It`s common in scenarios like this that drizzle or very light rain gets reported as snow...when in fact surface temperatures don`t support that possibility. Clear skies expected Sunday and Sunday night. Temperatures on Sunday will struggle to climb into the mid to upper 40s across northern and central areas...around 50 to the lower 50s south. Another frigid night Sunday night as mentioned above with most areas away from the coast or extreme southwest Florida in the 20s. Again, record cold temperatures will be possible both Sunday and Sunday night. The airmass will begin to modify a bit on Monday, but still another cold day across the region with high temperatures from the mid 50s north to around 60 south. Subfreezing temperatures again likely Monday night/Tuesday morning across the nature coast, and around freezing to slightly above freezing across the interior...with upper 30s to lower 40s near the coast. The area of high pressure will begin to shift east of the forecast area during the middle of next week with temperatures continuing to modify...but remaining below climatic normals under mostly clear skies each day. && .MARINE... Issued at 1133 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 High pressure will hold over the waters through Friday with relatively benign conditions. As mentioned above, a cold front will push across the waters on Saturday with a strong Canadian area of high pressure building over the waters in the wake of the front. Gale conditions likely developing on Saturday and Saturday night, and can`t rule out a few gusts to storm force. Winds will come down a bit on Sunday, but advisory level winds and seas will likely persist. Winds will subside Sunday night, but it will likely take a longer period of time for the seas to subside. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1133 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 Very dry air will remain across the region today with critical relative humidity levels, generally in the 20 to 25 percent range this afternoon. The significant fire potential for west central and southwest Florida remains low and sustained winds are expected to remain below 15 MPH. For these reasons, an RFW will not be needed. Moisture will recover tomorrow and minimum relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 66 46 70 51 / 0 0 0 40 FMY 71 50 70 54 / 0 0 10 30 GIF 66 45 72 50 / 0 0 0 20 SRQ 67 46 70 52 / 0 0 0 40 BKV 66 34 70 42 / 0 0 0 30 SPG 66 51 70 55 / 0 0 0 40 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands- Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Pasco-Polk-Sumter. Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee- Inland Sarasota-Pinellas. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1258443 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:36 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 630 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Cold Weather Advisories issued for the risk of dangerous wind chills tonight into Friday morning. Those may need to be extended into Friday night and Saturday morning. There is a growing potential for accumulating snow, gusty winds and coastal flooding for eastern and southeast New England Sunday and Sunday night, although there is still uncertainty in the specific details. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Stronger shot of Arctic air produces dangerous cold/low wind chills tonight into Friday morning, possibly into Friday night to early Saturday as well. Significant accretion of freezing spray is also expected for vessels navigating the waters. - While details are still uncertain, there is a growing potential for a coastal storm to bring accumulating snow and gusty winds to eastern and southeastern New England Sunday and Sunday night, to go along with the potential for coastal flooding for the Sunday morning/evening high tides. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Stronger shot of Arctic air produces dangerous cold/low wind chills tonight into Friday morning, possibly into Friday night to early Saturday as well. Significant accretion of freezing spray is also expected for vessels navigating the waters. Much below normal temperatures continue through the workweek into this weekend, to go along with dry weather, being governed by an active northern stream and sustained WNW midlevel flow. However starting later this afternoon, a shot of even stronger Arctic air builds into Southern New England. 850 mb temps drop to a frigid -20 to -22C through tonight, which modifies only very slightly into Fri. The combination of this level of low-level cold air with the existing snowpack should favor widespread sub-zero air temperatures at least tonight but potentially into Friday evening/early Saturday as well. WNW winds around 15 to 20 mph picking up tonight given these air temps will lead to dangerous cold and low wind chills. After coordination, we`ve hoisted Cold Weather Advisories for much of Southern New England except for the Cape and Islands starting tonight through 11 AM Friday morning. Certainly the name of the headline might lead one to undersell the risk as we have cold weather 5 months out of the year, so a reminder this headline is meant to address dangerous cold leading to frostbite given prolonged exposure. The lowest wind chills look to be in the higher terrain with values in the 20 to 25 below zero range; though it is more marginal in the lower elevations with values in the 15 to 20 below range, it just made more sense from a messaging standpoint to expand the headline into most of the rest of Southern New England. For the Cape and Islands, values around 5 to 10 below zero look more likely and felt was too marginal for those locations. The lowest of the windchills should be taking place just before sunrise, but will set the stage for a frigid Friday with highs only in the single digits to mid teens. Regardless, dress in layers and limit time outdoors, and also check in on the elderly and pets to ensure they are prepared for this cold. Additional cold weather advisories could be needed for Friday night into Saturday morning, but the potential for some cloud cover working southward from northern New England and lighter winds cast uncertainty. This arctic air could also lead to substantial accretion of icing on vessels over the waters; heavy freezing spray warnings and freezing spray advisories have also been issued for the waters. Key Message 2...While details are still uncertain, there is a growing potential for a winter storm to bring accumulating snow and gusty winds to eastern and southeastern New England Sunday and Sunday night, to go along with the potential for coastal flooding for the Sunday morning/evening high tides. Continuing to monitor latest developments regarding a significant coastal storm which could affect Southern New England Sunday. There is a growing potential for accumulating snow and gusty winds for Cape Cod, the Islands and perhaps further westward into South Shore and the I-95 corridor. While interior Southern New England seems less likely for significant impacts, by no means can they be ruled out of the woods. Ensemble means and their individual members are showing increasing consensus and ensemble-member-clustering toward a rapidly- strengthening initial coastal low pressure just offshore the NC/SC coastline Saturday, in vicinity of the Gulfstream ocean current. That much has become more clear. By Saturday night/early Sunday, as the primary cyclone pulls away well east of Cape Hatteras, ECMWF EPS/GEM GEPS/GEFS ensemble mean sea level pressure field then becomes rather large, with some bagginess in the ensemble mean isobars oriented to the northeast of the main low center. What has become a trend across the deterministic model suite, and is probably the cause of the bagginess to the isobars in the ensembles, is the development of secondary (spurious?) lows east of the main cyclone`s center as it starts to pull away from the NC Outer Banks. Perhaps this is due to convective feedback issues given the strong air-sea baroclinic setting - hard to really know. Why is this even important? The models handle this very complicated interaction, moving forward in time, in varied ways. This ranges from a consolidation of lows as it nears or passes south of 40N/70W, which is really a best- case scenario for us, as the system`s precip shield would pass far enough SE for a more glancing blow to Cape Cod, the Islands and perhaps South Shore. On the other hand, models like yesterday`s ECMWF show the potential for one of these lows to, for lack of a better term, "slingshot" north/northwest toward our far eastern coastline later Sunday into Sunday night. That solution would be the worst of all possible outcomes, which would spread a larger precip shield much further westward than just the eastern SNE coast, generate a period of strong to potentially damaging NE/N wind gusts, while also significantly elevating the risk for coastal flooding. It is still too early to say which one of those possible solutions, or something in between, is more likely. We`re now four days from a possible impact, and with still quite a bit of uncertainty and waffling/wobbling in the models, will take a more probabilistic approach when it comes to delineating possible hazards. The risk for accumulating snowfall, potentially significant, is increasing for the Cape and Islands and southeast New England. NBM 5.0 24-hr probs of exceeding snowfall of 6 or more inches are now in the moderate to high (50-65%) range for the Cape and Islands; values then taper to lower to moderate (35-50%) range for the Boston- Providence I-95 corridor eastward toward South Shore and South Coast, with low (20% or less) from the North Shore westward through the remainder of SNE. The 24-hr NBM 5.0 probs of a foot or more of snow are in the 40-50% range for the the Cape and Islands, and are around 25-35% for South Shore. The Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index now shows high (50-70%) probs of Moderate winter storm impacts south and east of I-95. After a coordination call with WPC, we agreed to wait another model cycle or two before winter storm watches are considered to get a better handle on the westward extent of the precip shield. How close any deepening low pressure gets to our eastern coast will also determine how strong NE to N winds develop, as well as coastal flooding given that there is a full moon this weekend. Stevens Institute guidance suggests a 1.5 to 2.5 ft storm surge with wave action, with the main risk being for eastern MA given NE to N wind trajectories - Boston, South Shore, Cape Cod, Nantucket. That guidance offers widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding for both the Sunday morning and Sunday evening high tides. As with any coastal flood forecast, timing of the peak surge with high tide will be critical, as will the effect of wave run-up/wave action. Beach erosion also could be possible given 20+ ft waves offshore. The bottom line is that while there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in how far west would the snow shield advance Sunday/Sunday night, the chances for significant accumlating snow and gusty winds are on the increase for eastern and southeast New England. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12Z TAFs: High confidence. VFR. WNW winds at 5-10 knots tonight and Thursday. Increasing west winds Thursday night with LLWS possible in the evening. KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. VFR. Light WNW winds around 10 knots through Thursday KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. VFR. Light WNW winds through Thursday. Could be some LLWS towards Thursday evening as winds aloft increase faster then surface winds. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Saturday: VFR. Saturday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Slight chance SN. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 55 kt. Chance SN. Sunday Night: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 60 kt. Chance SN. Monday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. NW winds today at 15-20 knots increasing to 25-30 knots tonight. Seas increase to 5-6 feet again tonight with the higher winds. Light to moderate freezing spray likely today esspically between MVY and ACK. Moderate to heavy freezing spray expected tonight and lasting into Friday evening. Best chance for heavy freezing spray is in the MVY and ACK sounds. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Freezing spray, slight chance of freezing rain. Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Freezing spray likely. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Saturday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Local rough seas. Freezing spray, chance of snow. Local visibility 1 nm or less. Sunday: Moderate risk for storm force winds with gusts up to 60 kt. Rough seas up to 22 ft. Snow likely, freezing spray. Visibility 1 nm or less. Sunday Night: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 24 ft. Freezing spray, chance of snow. Areas of visibility 1 nm or less. Monday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 21 ft. Freezing spray. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Friday for CTZ002>004. MA...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Friday for MAZ002>021-026. RI...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Friday for RIZ001>007. MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ231-235>237-250-251-254-256. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ231-251. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ232>235-237. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ232>234-255. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ250-254. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ255-256. && $$ |
| #1258442 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 521 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 516 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 - A cold front will move through Thursday night, bringing colder temperatures back to the region Friday through Sunday. - There is a medium to high chance (50-80%) of subfreezing temperatures Saturday night across the Northern Ranchlands and Upper RGV. There is a low chance (10-20%) of subfreezing temperatures Saturday night across the Low/Mid RGV. - Low rain chances (20-30%) along the immediate coast Thursday night into Friday morning. - Adverse beach/marine conditions are possible on Friday, and potentially through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 516 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 While a warming trend will continue into Thursday, overnight temperatures tonight will remain below normal. Winds shifting back to the southeast overnight will allow temperatures on Thursday to reach the low to mid 70s. A cold front is expected to move through Thursday night into Friday morning which will once again bring cooler, below normal temperatures back to Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. While daytime highs will be in the 50s and 60s through the weekend, the main story will be the cold overnight temperatures. Friday night into Saturday morning temperatures will fall to near freezing across the Northern Ranchlands with a 10-30% chance of reaching the freezing mark. The best chance (50-80%) for freezing temperatures will be Saturday night into Sunday morning primarily across the Northern Ranchlands into the Upper Valley. There is a low chance (10- 20%) of a freeze Saturday night into early Sunday morning across the Low/Mid Valley. A gradual warming trend begins on Monday as low level southerly flow returns. While the majority of the forecast period will remain rain-free, isolated showers are possible along and ahead of the front. Greatest chance for rainfall will be along the coast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1020 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 While a warming trend will continue into Thursday, overnight temperatures tonight will remain below normal. Winds shifting back to the southeast overnight will allow temperatures on Thursday to reach the low to mid 70s. A cold front is expected to move through Thursday night into Friday morning which will once again bring cooler, below normal temperatures back to Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. While daytime highs will be in the 50s and 60s through the weekend, the main story will be the cold overnight temperatures. Friday night into Saturday morning temperatures will fall to near freezing across the Northern Ranchlands with a 10-30% chance of reaching the freezing mark. The best chance (50-80%) for freezing temperatures will be Saturday night into Sunday morning primarily across the Northern Ranchlands into the Upper Valley. There is a low chance (10- 20%) of a freeze Saturday night into early Sunday morning across the Low/Mid Valley. A gradual warming trend begins on Monday as low level southerly flow returns. While the majority of the forecast period will remain rain-free, isolated showers are possible along and ahead of the front. Greatest chance for rainfall will be along the coast. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 516 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Generally VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the TAF cycle at all TAF sites. Southerly winds are expected for the most of the TAF cycle, however a cold front should move through the region during the early morning hours tomorrow that will result in winds shifting towards the north. However the northerly winds are expected to be light at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1020 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail through Thursday evening with light winds and low seas. A cold front is expected to arrive late Thursday night into Friday with Small Craft Exercise Caution to Small Craft Advisory conditions expected in wake of the cold front on Friday. Rain chances increase Thursday night (20- 50%) as the front moves across the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 73 53 63 44 / 0 20 0 0 HARLINGEN 73 46 63 37 / 0 10 0 0 MCALLEN 76 50 65 41 / 0 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 48 65 36 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 55 62 52 / 10 30 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 51 62 45 / 0 20 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1258441 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 629 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The aviation section was updated for the 12Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Confidence continues to increase in an accumulating snowfall event across a portion of the SC Lowcountry and SE Georgia Saturday morning through Saturday night. - 2) Unseasonably cold weather will continue through early next week with the coldest conditions expected Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Confidence continues to increase in an accumulating snowfall event across a portion of the SC Lowcountry and SE Georgia Saturday morning through Saturday night. A sharp trough is forecast to dig southward out of the Great Lakes on Friday, dropping into the southeastern states Saturday. Simultaneously a surface low is forecast to develop off the southeastern coast before trekking to the northeast. Precipitation along the backside of the low is forecast to impact the region Saturday into early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings indicate dry conditions will dominate prior to daybreak Saturday and into the first few hours of Saturday morning. Conditions will then saturate as precipitation moves into the region. Unique to the SC Lowcountry and SE Georgia is the fact that this event will be rain/snow, with no meaningful probabilities of freezing rain/sleet. Forecast soundings show that the entire column of air will be below freezing, leading to an all snow forecast once surface temperatures drop below freezing. Given the very cold temperatures, the snow ratio could approach 20 to 1, also unique for the area. This snow ratio is quite high and would result in a "dry" snowfall. Given these details, Winter Storm Warning criteria (2 inches) is possible across northern and inland areas of the SC Lowcountry, with Winter Weather Advisory criteria (1-2 inches) possible across the rest of the region, except for counties south of I-16 in Georgia. KEY MESSAGE 2: Unseasonably cold weather will continue through early next week with the coldest conditions expected Saturday night. A reinforcing Arctic high will slide into the region Friday night and then persist through Monday before shifting off the Southeast coast. Cold advection during the day Saturday will prevent high temps from climbing out of the mid 30s over inland SC/GA. Closer to the coast where there will be fewer hours of cold advection, highs should reach the low to mid 40s. Saturday evening, temperatures will rapidly plummet, with most areas in the 20s by 9pm. Overnight lows in the mid to upper teens and 10-15 mph winds will produce wind chills in the single digits for most of the night. We will likely need an Extreme Cold Warning for the entire area Saturday night into Sunday morning. Sunday night lows will be in the upper teens, but wind speeds will be notably weaker, so wind chills will mainly be 10-15 degrees. A Cold Weather Advisory is likely for Sunday night. Lake Moultrie winds: Winds out of the northwest sustained in the 20 to 25 knot range with gusts of 25 to 30 knots may require a Lake Wind Advisory Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV through the 12Z TAF period. Extended Aviation Outlook: Predominantly VFR through the extended period, with increasing potential for impacts Saturday associated with developing low pressure offshore of the Southeastern coast. && .MARINE... A potent surface low will develop off the SC coast on Saturday, then shift northeast on Sunday. A period of Gale force winds is expected during this period in all zones except Charleston Harbor where solid Small Craft Advisory conditions are anticipated. It`s a bit too early to issue a Gale Watch, but there is high confidence that we`ll eventually need one. && .CLIMATE... Record Low Temperatures: January 31: KCHS: 15/1966 KCXM: 19/1966 KSAV: 16/1966 February 1: KCHS: 21/1977 KCXM: 23/1900 KSAV: 23/1977 February 2: KCHS: 19/1980 KCXM: 17/1917 KSAV: 18/1917 Record Low Maximum Temperatures: January 31: KCHS: 36/1948 KCXM: 34/1936 KSAV: 37/1909 February 1: KCHS: 38/1980 KCXM: 36/1900 KSAV: 38/1900 February 2: KCHS: 38/1980 KCXM: 38/1898 KSAV: 38/1951 Record Snowfall: January 31: KCHS: 0.6/1977 KSAV: 1.3/1977 February 1: KCHS: no record established KSAV: no record established && .EQUIPMENT... The KCLX radar remains out of service. More parts are on order. We hope to have the radar restored by Saturday. Users should use adjacent WSR-88D sites, including KCAE, KLTX, KJAX, KVAX and KJGX. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1258440 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 520 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 519 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 - A pair of cold fronts move across the area Friday and Saturday, ushering in an Arctic airmass. Bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills are expected late Friday night into Sunday. - Hazardous marine conditions are expected to impact our local marine zones Friday night through through Sunday morning. Winds to gale force are likely, especially over the Gulf. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1134 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Now through Wednesday... For the rest of the week through the weekend, a strong cold front moves across the forecast area Friday, with a reinforcing front moving across the forecast area Saturday in response to two passing upper level shortwaves. Winds behind the first front will remain breezy Friday, with low temperatures in the upper teens north of Highway 84 to upper 20s near the coast and Wind Chills dropping into the single digits north of Highway 84 and teens south Friday night. But strong winds (a Wind Advisory will likely be needed) Saturday accompany the second front, ushering in even colder air and limiting high temperatures to the 30s Saturday and daytime wind chills in the teens to low 20s over most of the forecast area. Temperatures Saturday night drop even lower the previous night, bottoming out into teens over areas inland from the coast, around 20 along the coast. Wind Chills dropping into the single digits forecast area wide are expected Saturday night. An Extreme Cold Watch is in effect from late Friday evening into Sunday morning. Any precipitation from these passing shortwaves are expected to remain well offshore. Some recovery is expected Sunday as the cold airmass that moves over the western half of the Southeast begins to shift east as an upper ridge that has built north over the western Conus shifts east. In the coming week, surface high pressure moves over the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday, shifting onshore flow back to onshore by Tuesday. A modest moisture return occurs by mid week before another front approaches the Southeast. Deterministic guidance diverges into mid week with this passage, but are in agreement that temperatures rise back to near seasonal norms by the end of the forecast. Offshore flow through most of the forecast will limit any swell, keeping the Rip Risk low through the weekend into the coming week. /16 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 519 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 VFR flight category prevails across the region through tonight. Light and variable winds this morning become light southerlies during the day, once again becoming light and variable after sunset tonight. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 1134 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Weak onshore flow shifts to moderate to strong Friday as a cold front passes. A reinforcing front passes Saturday, keeping offshore flow strong to very strong into Sunday. A Gale Watch is in effect for open Gulf waters beginning late Friday night, with a Small Craft Advisory likely to be issued for protected waters Thursday. Surface high pressure approaches area waters late Sunday into the coming week, easing winds over area waters into Monday, then shifting them to onshore in the coming week. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 57 38 59 26 / 0 0 10 0 Pensacola 55 43 61 29 / 0 10 10 0 Destin 56 46 61 29 / 0 10 20 10 Evergreen 56 33 57 21 / 0 0 20 0 Waynesboro 55 32 51 20 / 0 0 10 0 Camden 53 31 50 20 / 0 0 20 0 Crestview 58 35 62 25 / 0 10 20 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for ALZ051>060-261>266. FL...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for FLZ201>206. MS...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for GMZ650- 655-670-675. && $$ |
| #1258439 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:24 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 607 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 606 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 - Another intense arctic blast likely arrives by Saturday with more hard freezes and dangerous wind chills returning. Wind chills in the single digits are becoming increasingly likely (60 to 90% chance). Continue to monitor this potential for dangerous cold as we approach the weekend. - There is a high (90%) chance of gale conditions over the waters late Friday into Saturday. Very dangerous marine conditions are expected with gusts up to 40 knots and building seas. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 104 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 High pressure moves overhead today with tranquil weather expected. Highs will be in the mid 50s to low 60s with light winds. Moisture will be on the increase tonight with some clouds moving in late. Thus, tonight will be "warmer" than previous nights with 30s inland and near 40 along the coast. Big changes come in the Long Term. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 104 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 In the mid and upper-levels, a weak shortwave moves across the Southeast on Friday before a much more potent trough drops across the southeast US Friday night into Saturday. At the surface, an area of low pressure moves across the Gulf Coast Friday, then begins to deepen off the Southeast US coast Saturday into Sunday. Meanwhile, strong high pressure drops into the Great Plains Saturday and into the Mid-South Sunday. For Friday, as the low moves overhead, we`ll have a few scattered showers during the morning and afternoon. However, there`s some dry air in the low levels still lingering, so we don`t expect much measurable rain. That dry air complicates the temperature forecast a bit too. As the rain falls in that dry layer near the surface, we may see some evaporative cooling take place, which would keep areas in the Panhandle and southeast Alabama in the 40s to low 50s on Friday given cloud cover hanging around. This is reflected in some of the hi- res model guidance this evening. If the clouds break a bit, then temperatures may warm back up into the upper 50s. There is quite a bit of uncertainty with temperature spread in the HREF guidance of 8 degrees between the 25th and 75th percentiles Friday afternoon. To lean more into hi-res guidance, I lowered highs over the Panhandle and southeast Alabama, but don`t be surprised to see more changes there. The much colder air arrives Friday night in our western area. Strong winds will usher in temperatures in the 20s by Saturday morning in southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and areas north of I-10 in the Panhandle. 30s are expected elsewhere. However, with the wind, it will feel more like the teens and 20s for much of the area. It won`t be much better during the day Saturday either with highs only rebounding the mid 30s to low 40s for most of the area. But, the wind will still be blowing with winds of 15-25 mph and gusts of 30-40 mph. There is a low to medium chance (20-50%) of gusts exceeding 40 mph, which would necessitate a Wind Advisory. But these winds will make it feel like the mid 20s to mid 30s for most of the day. In addition to the cold, there is a slight chance (20%) of some precipitation moving in on the backside of the low off the Southeast US. This will have to battle some drier air, but there may be just enough moisture for some light snow or flurries around the Tifton and Fitzgerald areas Saturday afternoon. Confidence isn`t particularly high on this chance, given the battle with dry air. If snow were to occur, accumulations and impacts are not expected. Saturday night will be the coldest night of this event. Widespread lows in the teens with 20s near the coast will result in a widespread hard freeze. Additionally, this will be a long duration freeze, lasting some 15 to 18 hours (or more). This puts extra strain on exposed pipes. Additionally, the wind will still be blowing around 10-15 mph. Nearly the entire area will see wind chill values in the single digits at some point Saturday night and Sunday morning. There is a high chance (60-90%) of wind chills in the single digits Saturday night. This is extremely dangerous cold for this part of the country. Unprotected or unsheltered people may experience hypothermia without adequate warmth. Ensure you`re protecting the 4 Ps from this dangerous cold: People, Pets, Pipes, Plants. Sunday will still be cold and breezy with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Sunday night will feature another hard freeze with lows in the lower to mid 20s and wind chills in the teens. A moderating trend kicks off Monday as ridging tries to build in aloft. Highs will return to the 50s Monday and eventually the 60s by mid week. Lows will also rise from the 20s back to the 30s and 40s by mid week. Another couple shortwaves move across the southeast Tuesday with low chances of some showers by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with only some high level clouds expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 104 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will continue today before clocking around out of the east to southeast on Friday. An area of low pressure will move over the marine area Friday a few showers. Behind the low, winds will become northerly to northwesterly and quickly increase to near gale force. Gusts of 40 to 45 kt are becoming increasingly likely, especially in the offshore waters where chances are now medium to high (50 to 80%). This will result in widespread gale conditions across the region, and given the strong winds. Gale Watches are now in effect for the Gulf waters, and it`s likely advisories will be needed even for the St Andrews Bay. Conditions will remain around gale levels through Saturday evening before dropping to below advisory levels late Sunday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 104 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Light and variable winds are expected today as high pressure moves overhead. Some pockets of critically low RH are expected in the southeast Big Bend and east of I-75 in Georgia. Winds around 10 mph become easterly to southeasterly Friday morning, then turn northwesterly in the afternoon as a low pressure system passes to our south. Dispersions both days will be poor for most of the area given the lighter winds and low mixing heights. A few light showers are possible across the area during the day Friday, but this will likely not amount to a wetting rain. Dispersions become very high on Saturday as northwesterly transport winds of 30-40 mph are expected with high mixing heights near 6,000 ft. Even surface winds will be around 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph. RH values will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s as well, resulting in elevated fire concerns for Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 104 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Very little precipitation is forecast over the next 7 days, and there are no flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 59 36 59 36 / 0 0 30 10 Panama City 58 42 60 33 / 0 0 30 10 Dothan 55 34 56 29 / 0 0 20 10 Albany 55 30 56 32 / 0 0 10 20 Valdosta 58 32 59 35 / 0 0 10 20 Cross City 62 33 64 39 / 0 0 10 30 Apalachicola 54 42 61 36 / 0 0 40 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for GMZ730-755-765-775. Gale Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1258438 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:21 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 620 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 345 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 - A brief respite from frost and freeze conditions tonight and Friday night with near seasonable high temperatures Friday around 70F. - Rare, Significant Arctic Cold Outbreak Arrives Saturday Night. The current forecast calls for low temperatures in the 20s, along with wind chills in the teens, both Sunday and Monday mornings. - Windy conditions develop Saturday afternoon and night with high chance of peak wind gusts 35 to 45 mph. Dangerous Gale conditions are forecast to develop over the Atlantic waters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Today-Fri...High pressure maintains a mostly dry weather pattern with a slow warming trend. Wind flow turns NE today and max temps climb a few degrees from yesterday yet remaining below normal in the 60s under mostly sunny skies. No freeze concerns tonight as temps hold in the 40s except upper 30s far NW with patchy frost. Some moisture will get pulled northward Fri and bring a small shower chance to the Treasure coast, otherwise dry with near seasonable temperatures for a change around 70/low 70s. This warming trend will be short-lived, however. Sat-Wed...Broad area of low pressure is forecast to form very close to Florida Fri night before lifting into the Atlantic and developing into a nor`easter. As it passes by early Saturday, rain chances have lowered especially across the north (now 20%) while still carrying 30-40% south of Orlando. Rainfall amounts look quite meager, less than one tenth /0.10/ of an inch. By late Sat morning and into the afternoon, a cold front passes through the area. The initial impact will be a burst of strong west- northwest winds. Forecast model soundings remain consistent showing peak wind gusts from 35-45 mph for Saturday late afternoon and evening as the low pressure rapidly deepens offshore. Winds veer slightly more out of the northwest on Saturday night, pushing Arctic air down the peninsula with little to no Gulf modification as parcel trajectories originate from the Panhandle and points north. Daily record lows are anticipated on Sunday morning. An additional freeze/hard freeze anticipated on Monday morning. Temperatures only slowly moderate with another freeze Tue morning over the interior. Extreme cold risks have remained consistent over the last several updates: SUNDAY AM: There is a 60-90% chance of a hard freeze (<= 27 deg F) on Sunday morning for all areas except Martin County (20-50%). Much of east central Florida currently has a 70-90% chance of wind chills in the teens with single digit wind chills north of Orlando. MONDAY AM: The risk for a hard freeze (<= 27 deg F) is 50-80% for many locations, except the immediate Space and Treasure Coasts where the probabilities are somewhat lower (30-60%). Bitterly cold wind chills are expected to persist, though with lighter winds (upper teens-mid 20s). As mentioned above, another round of very cold temperatures is forecast on Tuesday morning. For additional cold weather support, including probabilities and durations of specific temperatures for your location, visit weather.gov/mlb/coldsupport. With a widespread freeze and extreme cold event now likely, residents, officials, and agricultural operations should begin considering how to prepare. Those with inadequate shelter or heat will be most affected. Exposed pipes may freeze, and some non- native plants and trees will succumb to the elements if not properly protected. The risk to non-cold-hardy plants and palms is much higher due to the wind-driven cold that is expected. High temperatures on Sunday should hold in the 40s Orlando northward and only reach the lower 50s south of Melbourne despite full sunshine. A gradual (slow) warming trend commences next week with max temps returning to the 60s Tue and lower 70s Wed. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 High pressure nudges eastward today across the SE US. Briefly enhanced N/NW winds this morning will decrease this afternoon and a period of improved conditions is forecast as the high sits nearly overhead late Today into Friday. Low pressure is then expected to form offshore NE Florida by early Sat, and rapidly deepen becoming a strong nor`easter as it moves up the Eastern Seaboard. Dangerous Gale conditions are anticipated by Saturday night in the wake of this storm. High pressure center will move east across the deep South Sunday and Monday and reach the Florida peninsula Tuesday. NW winds 15 kt this morning will become N this afternoon and decrease near 10 knots. Light and variable winds early Fri will become west to southwest 5-10 knots ahead of the front, increasing by Saturday morning to 15-20 kt. Conditions will deteriorate further during Sat with sustained Gale-force winds arriving by Saturday eve. Conditions remain hazardous Sunday with Advisory criteria then a more noticeably improvement Mon and esp Tue. Seas generally 3 ft nearshore today up to 6 ft in the Gulf Stream this morning. Seas 2-3 ft on Friday, building rapidly by Saturday afternoon 7-9 ft offshore and 4-6 ft nearshore. Fully developed seas of 14-16 ft are forecast in the Gulf Stream Sat night/early Sun with sustained Gale conditions and wind gusts approaching Storm-force. Seas will be slow to subside as north wind component persists (albeit decreasing) early next week which should keep seas 7-9 ft Mon in the Gulf Stream. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 616 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 VFR conditions prevail at all ECFL terminals through the TAF period. Northwester to northerly winds 5-10 kts this morning shift northeasterly by the early afternoon, then becoming light/VRB from this evening through Friday morning, settling from the west at 5-10 kts Friday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 308 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 A developing onshore (NE) wind flow today up to 10 mph will push the lowest RH values deeper over the interior, reaching near 30 percent west of Orlando. Moisture increases Friday and Friday night ahead of a very strong cold front but only isolated to scattered showers are forecast Friday night and early Saturday. Winds will be light Friday, less than 10 mph, becoming westerly ahead of the front. Strong and gusty winds are forecast to develop Saturday afternoon behind the cold front as low pressure deepens off the Southeast US coast. Sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts 35 to 45 mph are forecast Saturday afternoon and night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 61 45 69 46 / 0 0 0 20 MCO 65 46 71 50 / 0 0 0 20 MLB 65 49 71 47 / 0 0 10 10 VRB 67 49 71 47 / 0 0 20 10 LEE 63 43 70 46 / 0 0 0 30 SFB 64 44 70 47 / 0 0 0 20 ORL 64 46 70 50 / 0 0 0 20 FPR 68 48 71 47 / 0 0 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-044>046- 053-058-144. Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-547-647. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ141-247-254- 547. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1258437 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:21 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 515 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 513 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 - Strong cold front moves through tonight - Freezing temperatures return this weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Warm conditions will hang around for the day with highs climbing into the lower 70s across the region. A cold front will push through this evening bringing frigid cold weather back to the area. Highs beginning this weekend will only top out in the 40s and 50s as the ridge settles in overhead. Lows will drop into the 20s and 30s throughout the area beginning Friday night through Saturday night. Wind chill values will be in the teens and 20s likely warranting some cold weather products to be issued. This will be closely monitored as we near this weekend. Please take precautions if you need to spend extended periods outside. The chances for precipitation along and ahead of the front have continued to trend low with rain chances less the 10%. Will have to monitor another disturbance coming up around midweek next week which should bring us our next shot at some rain. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 513 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 VFR conditions prevail across South Texas and will continue through the forecast. Light variable winds will shift northerly between 04-08Z as a cold front pushes through, becoming sustained at 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots. No rain chances as atmospheric moisture remains below normal. && .MARINE... Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 A light to gentle flow is expected to continue through the day transitioning to strong breeze with gusts to gale due to the arrival of our next front. This front will promote low to medium (20-50%) rain chances with the frontal passage and strong winds in its wake. Conditions will persist through Saturday before transitioning to moderate breeze by Saturday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Minimum relative humidity values will hover below critical values Friday and linger through Sunday in the wake of our next cold front Thursday night. Although RH values will be low most days, light winds, cool temperatures and low to moderate Energy Release Component values will limit the fire weather potential. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 71 40 57 35 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 70 34 56 29 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 71 45 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 73 40 59 32 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 66 39 56 35 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 71 39 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 73 40 59 33 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 67 43 57 39 / 0 10 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for TXZ233-234. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1258436 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:21 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 513 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Light freeze until mid morning across northern parts of the area. There is a non-zero chance of a few isolated pockets of freezing fog toward sunrise. - Cold front pushes through this evening, but Arctic air really doesn`t filter in until Friday night. - Hard freezes for northern parts of the area Friday night & most of the region Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1208 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Look for another cool start to the day. Latest guidance isn`t quite as bullish with the freezing fog potential between now and mid morning near the Piney Woods/Brazos Valley (~30%), versus some of the earlier (50%+ runs), but the potential is there so some caution is advised for the early morning commute. Otherwise, we should see a nice warm up with readings making their way into the 60s with the sw llvl winds ahead of the next incoming front. This dry front will push thru the region this evening. Cold, Arctic high pressure will spill southward into SE TX Friday night through Saturday Night. Corresponding temps will take a dive back down into hard freeze territory for the Piney Woods area Friday night and daytime highs on Sat only between 36-45F for all the area. By Saturday night almost all inland locations will see a hard freeze with lows in the 17-22F range. Cannot rule out a Cold Weather Advisory or two. Ridging transitions to the east later Sunday, with a warming/modifying trend ensuing early next week. Next chance of rain comes into play Tuesday or Wednesday as moisture recovers with the onshore flow, we see a somewhat messy upper pattern, and another front getting closer to the region. 47 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 507 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Patchy fog will generally bring MVFR to IFR FLs early today with some spots potentially reaching LIFR briefly. A few areas are near or at the freezing mark, thus freezing fog will be possible in some spots early today. Fog should clear later this morning with VFR conditions returning. A dry cold front should push through the area this evening, moving off the coast around midnight. Breezy north to northwest winds develop behind the front. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 1208 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Light winds and low seas will prevail through the day. The next cold front will push off the coast late this evening followed by moderate north winds and building seas. Small Craft Advisories may be required late tonight. With a reinforcing shot of cold, Arctic air anticipated Friday night, winds and seas should further increase into Saturday, then gradually decrease Sunday. On the bays, already low astronomical tides will produce some negative water levels this week, even more so Friday night into the weekend with stronger north winds in place. Low Water Advisories are already in place. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 65 32 50 24 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 67 37 53 30 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 64 42 54 34 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Low Water Advisory until midnight CST Saturday night for GMZ330- 335. && $$ |
| #1258435 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:21 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 614 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Long-Duration Cold Weather Outbreak Continues through Early Next Week. Light Freeze & Frost for Inland Locations on Tonight. Life- Threatening Wind Chills Saturday Night & Early Sunday Morning. Lows in the Teens Possible Inland and Lower 20s at Coastal Locations. - Windy Coastal Conditions Saturday and Saturday Night. Gusts up to 40 MPH at NE FL Beaches. Gale Conditions Across Coastal Waters - Saturday and Saturday Evening Snowfall Potential Decreasing. Probabilities for Minor Impacts (Transportation) of 15-25% Across Southeast GA && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Weak high pressure and increasing westerly flow in the low levels will trend temperatures warmer today after the inland freeze this morning. Highs will warm back to the 60s across most of inland NE FL and the upper 50s across SE GA. Weak onshore flow will keep coastal temperatures a bit cooler with highs stay in the mid 50s this afternoon. There will be abundant sunshine to start the day but high level moisture with a strengthening upper level jet will build a thicker shield of cirrus through the afternoon and evening, especially across SE GA. These clouds may keep temperatures from cooling as quickly tonight limiting the extent of freezing temperatures to inland areas of SE GA where a new Freeze Watch has been issued. Elsewhere, freezing temperatures are less likely but lows tonight should cool to the mid/upper 30s across NE FL and support areas to widespread frost development by early Friday; a Frost Advisory will likely be needed for much of inland NE FL. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... An area of weak low pressure will develop over the central Gulf and move northeast across FL Friday. This low will develop further and strengthen as it moves to the northeast of the area Friday night into Saturday. As the low moves across FL, rain showers will be possible from late in the day Friday, through Saturday night. At this time, it looks like enough moisture will wrap around the back side of the departing low to bring at least a low chance of a light wintry mix Saturday into Saturday night, with greatest chance over SE GA. The low will continue to intensify as it moves away to the northeast Saturday night. With the flow from the southwest ahead of low Friday, highs will rise to near seasonal levels. Friday night temperatures will be near a little below average. Once the low moves away to the northeast, colder air will wrap into region behind it. Highs on Saturday will be well below normal, with readings falling into the 17 to 22 range Saturday night. So, a hard freeze is expected all across forecast area including the beach communities. With winds elevated behind the low, wind chills Saturday night will drop into the single digits, placing Saturday night solidly in the Extreme Cold Warning range. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The low will continue to pull away to the northeast Sunday, as high pressure builds from the northwest. The high will build overhead Monday and Tuesday. The high will weaken and move off to the east Wednesday. This will be a dry period. Hazards this period will be focused on the cold airmass. Nightly freezes are expected. Temperatures will be below average for most of this period, with a recovery to near average for Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... High clouds will fill the skies this afternoon but VFR conditions will remain. Winds will shift northerly this morning and then northeasterly to easterly behind a weak cold front brushing past the area. && .MARINE... Elevated winds continue through the morning as a weak cold front brushes across the waters. Winds will settle this afternoon as high pressure becomes situated over the area through Friday night before a powerful arctic front plunges across the waters Saturday. This very strong front will bring strong winds and gusts across the waters Saturday which will strengthen to gale-force Saturday night as a low pressure organizes and deepens quickly off the coastal Carolinas. There will be a low chance of a mix of rain and snow showers across the waters Saturday night as moisture wraps around the low and this may lead to occasional periods of low visibility. High pressure will build from the west and over the waters during the early and middle part of next week. Rip Currents: Low risk for SE GA beaches through Friday and low-end Moderate risk at NE FL beaches as surf continues to lower. NE FL beaches will be at a Low Risk by Friday as surf heights diminish. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure ridging will prevail through Tonight. An area of low pressure will gather over the central Gulf Friday, then move across FL Friday night. The low will then strengthen and move away to the northeast over the weekend. High pressure will become the prevailing weather feature early next week. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected this morning or Tonight. A dangerously cold airmass will settle in over the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Daily records challenged by the arctic cold air outbreak are below: Record Low Maximum Temperatures: Saturday, January 31: JAX 40/1909 CRG 43/1977 GNV 47/1909 AMG 44/1948 Sunday, February 1: JAX 42/1900 CRG 44/1980 GNV 41/1909 AMG 42/1980 Record Low Temperatures: Sunday, February 1: JAX 24/1977 CRG 29/1977 GNV 25/1977 AMG 22/1977 Monday, February 2: JAX 23/1979 CRG 27/1980 GNV 25/1980 AMG 19/1951 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 55 30 60 33 / 0 0 10 20 SSI 54 42 59 41 / 0 0 0 20 JAX 59 37 65 39 / 0 0 0 20 SGJ 57 43 66 44 / 0 0 0 20 GNV 63 36 67 40 / 0 0 0 20 OCF 63 37 69 42 / 0 0 0 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024- 030-031-035-038-120-124-132-136-137-140-220-225-232-236- 237-240-322-340-422-425-522-533-633. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ125-138-233- 325-333-433. GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149- 151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151-152-162-163-250-264-350-364. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1258434 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 511 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...NEW AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 511 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 - Below normal temps expected through the remainder of the week. - Another significant Arctic outbreak, stronger/colder than last weekend, with impacts expected late Friday through early Monday morning. No precipitation is expected, but the air mass will be very cold, with the primary threats being dangerously low temperatures and wind chills. - Small Craft Advisory to possibly Gale force winds look to be on the horizon the entire weekend, starting as early as Friday night. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1228 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Cool and dry forecast continues for the next 48 hours and then the next Arctic blast will run into the region. Yesterday was a more pleasant day with highs in the 50s under sunny skies. High pressure was in control at the surface while a weak s/w moved southeast across the region. We will see slightly warmer temps today but Thursday highs could occur early with the next cold front quickly be moving in from the northwest and colder temperatures surging southeast that afternoon. Northwest flow aloft will remain in place as multiple embedded s/w look to slide across the region overnight and through the weekend as the L/W trough becomes re-established over the eastern half of the CONUS. The first s/w will be moving into the region Thursday night. This will have a sfc low associated with it and it will traverse from the lee of the Rockies to the Lower MS Valley and into the southeastern CONUS by early Friday. This will bring a cold front through the region early Friday with cold air hanging back until the afternoon. Prior to that the forecast will be relatively benign with light and variable winds today and then winds becoming northwesterly but remaining light through the morning. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1228 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 It will be another bitterly cold few days this weekend as our second shot of Arctic air pushes into the region in less than a week. This shot of cold air will be every bit as cold if not colder but the wind chills could actually be colder as the wind looks to be stronger and the breezy conditions could last longer this time. The cold air surges into the region Friday afternoon with strong cold air advection all night and into Saturday. H925 temps could drop all the way down to -12 to -14C by early Saturday. Dewpoints are expected to drop into the single digits and remain in the single digits to lower teens all weekend. Guidance continues to come in with lows in the 20s on Saturday and then mid teens to mid 20s on Sunday. The primary driver Friday night will be the CAA. With that we didn`t make any adjustments to the lows but Saturday night and Sunday night is a little more tricky and could provide some room to deviate from guidance. MOS is quite cold for Sunday morning but the NBM is very warm and is actually above the 95th percentile. However even as high pressure is building in winds will still be around 15 kts at h925 and h85. Outside of those winds the setup is quite favorable for a rather efficient radiational cooling night and with dewpoints expected in the single digits to mid teens lows could fall rather significantly. That said lows this past Tuesday did not quite fall as much as expected across a good chunk of the area so have decide to not make any significant shifts from the NBM for Sunday morning but did lower the drainage areas 1-2 degrees. So with lows that cold those two mornings the other question is wind chill values and given the wind is expected to be stronger this time especially Saturday morning those wind chills are expected to be brutal once again. Min Wind Chill values are expected to range from the mid single digits across southwestern MS to mid teens on the Southshore. With strong CAA still occurring in the morning there will not be much of a warm up during the day with highs likely only approaching 30 across southwest MS and struggling to even get into the upper 30s across the southern half of the CWA. With those temperatures and breezy winds all day the wind chill is not expected to even climb above the upper 20s. Once the sun starts to fall temperatures will quickly begin to drop and the entire CWA will be back below freezing between 01-02Z if not earlier. This sets the stage for another dangerously cold night with min wind chill values in the single digits to mid teens once again. Given the lack of the wind chill getting above the upper 20s we decided to once again issue an Extreme Cold Watch Friday night and run it through Sunday morning. High pressure remains over the area through the day Sunday and overnight and this should provide another favorable radiational cooling setup. The high will begin got slide east overnight but should still have enough of an impact leading to another cold night and the NBM may be warming things up just a touch too fast so we did use a blend of the NBM and NBM50. We will then begin to moderate with temps rebounding closer to normal by Monday afternoon. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 511 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 VFR conditions through the cycle...for the most part. There could be CIG reductions for MCB Friday morning. Winds will continue to remain light and variable, generally less than 10kt. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1228 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 A surface low developing along the lee of the Rockies will move southeast across the Red River and into the Lower Ms Valley today. However it will weaken as this occurs leading to light onshore flow today and tonight before it moves into the southeastern CONUS overnight. Once it moves through offshore flow will redevelop through the day and increasing in strength. By afternoon SCY conditions will likely be in place and as deeper cold air drives into the region winds northerly and northwesterly winds will continue to increase and Gale conditions could develop. A Gale Watch has been issued for Friday night through Saturday. Winds will eventually begin to taper off as high pressure builds in early Sunday. /CAB/ && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for LAZ056>060- 064>068-077-087>090. GM...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for MSZ068>071-077-083>088. GM...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1258433 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:06 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 554 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for all of Southeast NC and Northeast SC. Based on the latest forecasts, a Cold Weather Advisory will not be required for the Bi-state region tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Temperatures well below normal will result in periods of dangerously low wind chill temperatures below 16 degrees through at least Monday night. 2) Although the potential for winter weather and hazardous travel conditions this weekend are increasing, there remains some uncertainty with respect to key details. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures well below normal will result in periods of dangerously low wind chill temperatures below 16 degrees through at least Monday night. A series of arctic air masses moving over the Southeast the next week will keep temperatures 10-20 degrees below normal. A Cold Weather Advisory may be needed for a portion of the area Fri night. Extreme Cold Warnings may be needed this weekend and potentially for the start of next week. KEY MESSAGE 2:...Although the potential for winter weather and hazardous travel conditions this weekend are increasing, there remains a lot of uncertainty with respect to key details. The large scale pattern and details have not changed. An unseasonably cold air mass will be in place over the Southeast this weekend (temperatures 20 degrees below normal at times). A southern stream shortwave/Gulf coast low crosses northern Florida then moves up the coast. Impressive 5h low/trough dropping south from the Great Lakes (originating around Hudson Bay) will enhance divergence aloft over the coastal low. A 150kt jet at 300mb moves across the low on Sat with the low in the favorable exit region, leading to impressive cyclogenesis off the Southeast coast. The guidance has come into somewhat better agreement with respect to the timing of the interaction between the surface and mid-level features and the location of the lows. Last night the surface low`s location off the coast in much of the guidance ranged between Cape Fear and Cape Hatteras and anywhere from a hundred miles offshore to almost 500 miles offshore. There has been a shift with the position of the surface low to east of Cape Lookout and southeast of Cape Hatteras, around 200 miles from shore. This sets up the potential for significant snowfall across the area, although there are likely to be a sharp snowfall gradients. Still a lot of uncertainty regarding specific forecast details. Anticipate a healthy dry slot developing, which will wrap into the 5h low and have at least some impact on the system. The exact location of the low and how much/quickly the dry slot wraps in will both be factors in where the heaviest precipitation bands set up. May see a bit of light rain or snow around daybreak Sat, but really think the precipitation will hold off until Sat. Much like the last event, the in situ air mass is very dry, it will take some time to moisten up and initially forcing is weak and the precipitation will not be very heavy. Storm really starts to crank up later Sat into Sat night before moving off to the northeast Sun. While there is likely to be at least one area where total QPF exceeds 1", think these areas are more likely to be north and east of the forecast area (assuming the low location is remotely accurate). All indications are total QPF 0.30"-0.60" across the forecast area. The key to the forecast will be the snow ratio. While the air mass is cold, the coastal influence is strong and forecast soundings do show warming in the mid-levels as the flow aloft becomes more onshore and strengthens in response to the deepening low. Not enough for a change-over to freezing rain or sleet, but enough to affect the snow ratio. So while surface temperatures Sat night (the likely time of heaviest snowfall) suggest ratios of 15:1 or higher, not confident this will come to fruition. For now thinking a good range across the forecast area is 3-6" with some higher pockets, especially along the northern border of the forecast area. However, there is potential for higher amounts (like double the forecast range). Somewhere there will be a band that sets up with double digit snowfall potential. Storm structure and location would favor north of the local area, but can`t rule it out for the Cape Fear region. Another concern will be visibility restrictions due to falling/blowing snow. Wind gusts in excess of 25 mph will likely lead to white out conditions at times. Given the slight increase in confidence and the snowfall forecast a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the area. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the period. SKC into mid to late daytime morning hrs followed by thin/opaque cirrus thereafter. Weak CAA surge this morning will result in NW to N winds around 10 kt, with few gusts up to 15+ kt possible between 13Z and 20Z. Center of bubble high pressure to temporarily park overhead late this aftn thru this evening. Look for winds to diminish to less than 5 kt, possibly going calm at a few select terminals this evening. Extended Forecast...Another CAA surge to occur possibly as early as late in the pre-dawn Fri hrs but more likely after sunrise Fri. Flight restrictions are expected to develop with the next Winter storm system this weekend. Snow chances start late Fri night and continue thru Sunday morning, with heaviest rates and strongest winds late Sat thru early sun, potentially producing brief whiteout conditions. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Weak CAA surge this morning will result in winds becoming NW-N 10-20 kt early this morning thru midday. There-after, weak bubble high moves overhead with the sfc pg relaxing. With NAA later this aftn into this evening combined with a relaxed sfc pg, N winds will further diminish to AOB 10 kt and continue thru sunrise Fri with hints of another CAA surge by or after sunrise Fri. Seas generally 2 to 4 ft early this morning, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft this afternoon and to around 2 ft tonight. Short period wind waves to dominate with an underlying 1 ft 10 second period E-SE swell. Friday through Monday... Marine conditions will deteriorate late Fri with conditions meeting Small Craft Advisory thresholds Fri night. Winds continue to increase Sat into Sun with Gales all but certain and potential for Storm Force gusts. Conditions will start to improve late Sun as the still strengthening storm moves away from the region. However, treacherous marine conditions will continue through at least midday Mon. Potential for double digit seas late Sat into Sun after starting out 2-3 ft on Fri, even with a lot of offshore component. An easterly swell will be present through the weekend but the wind wave will be the bigger story and quite significant, running in excess of 5 or 6 ft at times. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. SC...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1258432 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:24 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 514 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Rain chances will increase tonight and Friday. -A strong cold front will blast through the Florida Keys on Saturday, with a line of showers expected along and just ahead of the frontal passage. -Very cold and windy conditions are expected Saturday evening through at least Monday morning. A Wind Advisory and/or a Cold Weather Advisory may be required for portions or all of the Keys. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 500 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Synoptic-scale geopotential height analysis continues to depict a stubborn omega blocking pattern extending across the CONUS. A strong ridge continues to bridge over the western third of the United States, with a series of shortwave troughs pivoting to the west in the eastern North Pacific and over the Eastern Seaboard to the east of the ridge. Meanwhile, at the surface, a stationary front extends from the Yucatan northeastward to the central North Atlantic, with a sprawling area of high pressure over the Gulf States. The interaction of the high with the frontal boundary continues to support moderate to occasionally fresh northerly breezes across the Florida Keys at this early morning hour. Widespread mid-level cloud cover, in combination with the elevated winds, has limited the diurnal temperature signal for most island communities, with temperatures currently in the mid to upper 50s, only a few degrees cooler than the well below normal maxima observed Wedneday afternoon. For today through Friday, the aforementioned stationary front will slowly drift northward. Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure may form along this front, drifting northeastward towards the Bahamas late tonight and Friday. Isentropic analysis on the 290K surface supports large-scale ascent at around 850 mb, with forecast soundings depicting ample boundary layer moisture and decent veering (warm advection). This seems to support a period of scattered light to moderate showers in the vicinity of the Florida Keys for these forecast periods, consistent with most available convective allowing model (CAM) guidance. Elected to nudge measurable rain chances to mid-level chance levels (30-40%) for tonight and Friday. Our attention then quickly turns to the weekend. Global ensemble mean and member fields are in fantastic agreement that a shortwave trough diving into the Mid-Atlantic will support rapid surface cyclogenesis off the Carolina Coast Saturday and Sunday. This is a textbook setup for an arctic invasion for the Florida Peninsula. All available numerical weather prediction and statistical guidance suggests temperatures plummeting Saturday evening through Monday into levels the Florida Keys have not seen since around 2010. The tight pressure gradient of the cyclone off the Carolinas interacting with building high pressure in the wake of the front will support very windy conditions. Coupled with the cool temperatures, rare Cold Weather Advisories may be required for portions or all of the Florida Keys Saturday night and Sunday night, with wind chills easily dipping into the 30s. As the large-scale synoptic pattern (at least temporarily) flattens by the middle to the latter part of next week, temperatures will slowly moderate closer to near-normal levels. && .MARINE... Issued at 500 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Current marine-based surface observations indicate northerly winds 18 to 20 knots, associated with a nocturnal wind surge. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines are maintained until winds decrease by the late morning hours. From synopsis, gentle to moderate, occasionally fresh, northerly breezes will continue through Friday. A strong cold front will blast through the Florida Keys marine zones on Saturday. Breezes will back to the northwest and dramatically freshen in the wake of the front. Confidence continues to increase for a period of gale- force winds Saturday night into early Sunday, as high pressure building across the Gulf Coast interacts with the front. While breezes will slowly slacken Sunday through Monday, marine hazards will continue. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 500 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Northerly crosswinds will carry a modest concern during the beginning of the TAF period as sustained winds near 15 knots will occasionally gust near 20 knots. Crosswind concerns will lessen around 16Z as winds veer northeasterly and slacken to 10 to 15 knots where they will remain through the rest of the period. BKN to OVC CIGs based between 040-060 will linger through the morning, but categorical changes at either terminal are not expected. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2023, the daily record warm low temperature of 73F was recorded in Marathon. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 67 61 68 62 / 10 40 30 20 Marathon 66 62 68 62 / 10 40 40 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1258431 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 456 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... High likelihood for a winter storm to develop along the Southeast coast this weekend, bringing moderate to major impacts to Eastern North Carolina. Winter Storm Watches have been issued for all of Eastern North Carolina. Storm Watches have been issued for all marine zones save for the Pamlico and Pungo Rivers (Gale Watch) starting Saturday evening. A High Wind Watch has been issued for the Northern Outer Banks and Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands starting Saturday evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cold Weather Advisory reamains in effect until 10 AM for 5-15 degree wind chills behind an Arctic front. 2) High likelihood for a strong winter storm to bring significant accumulating snowfall, blowing and drifting snow due to strong winds, and coastal flooding. 3) More extreme cold is expected behind the winter storm, with wind chills likely falling below 0 Sunday and Monday mornings. 4) MARINE...Potential for extremely dangerous marine conditions this weekend as a low pressure system deepens rapidly off the NC coast. Storm conditions are likely with the potential for Hurricane Force wind gusts. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Very cold conditions will continue tonight as an Arctic cold front moves across the region. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM for 5-15 degree wind chills. Ambient temps will bottom out in the upper teens to mid 20s, but a stiff NW breeze behind the front will make it feel like it`s in the low teens in many spots. KEY MESSAGE 2... All signs continue to point to an impactful winter storm developing near the Carolinas this weekend with increasing confidence of at least several inches of accumulating snow. Additionally, the rapidly deepening low will produce very strong winds across the area (35-50 mph inland and 50-65 mph along the coast), which could lead to power outages, reduced visibilities, and potentially blizzard conditions along the coast. A deep positively tilted upper level trough will dig across the Plains later this week, becoming neutral to negatively tilted this weekend as it crosses the ECONUS. A southern stream shortwave originating from the Pacific northwest will track south and east across the Gulf states late this week and into this weekend while a northern stream shortwave will simultaneously dive into the SECONUS from the Hudson Bay. These features are forecast to result in surface cyclogenesis off the SE coast this weekend. These shortwaves are expected to phase together, allowing the low to rapidly intensify as it moves northeast near the coast of the Carolinas. Precipitation may start as early as Friday night with snow across the coastal plain, a rain/snow mix along the coast, and rain along the OBX. All P-types are expected to change over to snow Saturday night and continue into Sunday morning, and this is when the heaviest accumulations will occur. Northwest winds will ramp up Saturday night and peak early Sunday, causing blowing and drifting snow and potentially blizzard conditions along the coast. Wind chills will also be dangerously cold during this time, bottoming out in the sub-zero to single digit range, and low temperatures may flirt with records. The WPC Winter Storm Severity Index now shows a greater than 95% chance of moderate impacts and a 70-80% chance of major impacts across Eastern North Carolina. For the majority of Eastern North Carolina, there`s a 85-95% chance of more than 4", a 60-80% chance of more than 8", and a 35-55% chance of more than 12". Guidance continues to hit northeastern zones (north of HWY 264 and east of HWY 17) as the sweet spot for higher accumulations, showing a 80-90% chance of >4", 40-60% chance of >8", and 50-70% chance of >12". Historically, this storm`s setup is most like the December 24, 1989 and early March 1980 storms. Both of these historic events produced 12+" of snow for Eastern North Carolina with accumulations from the March 1980 storm nearing 24" in some areas. While there`s potential for this weekend`s snow accumulations to be comparable to these past events, keep in mind that we`re still more than 48 hours out from when the heaviest snow is expected to fall, which means there`s still room for adjustments (up or down) in the accumulation forecast. However, with the probabilities of higher snow amounts consistently going up, the higher end amounts should not be taken lightly when thinking about storm preparation. No matter how much snow falls, it will not melt quickly due to the extremely cold air that will build in behind this system. Temperatues aren`t expected to approach freezing until Monday, but some areas may not get above freezing until Tuesday. A High Wind Watch has been issued for the Outer Banks from Duck to Ocracoke from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon and a Wind Advisory will eventually be needed for coastal counties. Gusts will be 50-65 mph along the Outer Banks and 35-50 mph inland. Due to these powerful winds, moderate to locally significant coastal flooding impacts will be possible, both soundside and oceanside. This could lead to travel impacts for vulnerable portions of NC-12, especially for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. This storm will also coincide with a higher tide cycle, which will exacerbate coastal flooding impacts, especially along the Outer Banks. Coastal Flood Watches and High Surf Advisories will be needed for portions of the area in future updates. Preparations you can take at this time: Have emergency supplies in your home and your car, check your smoke and carbon monoxide detectors, and replenish fuel for your car and heating sources. Make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings, you`re stocked up on food, water, and medications, and make plans to bring your pets inside from the extreme cold. KEY MESSAGE 3... Extremely cold air will stick around behind the winter storm with the potential to set additional new record low temperatures Monday and Tuesday mornings. Lows will be in the low tens to low 20s Sunday night/Monday morning with dangerously cold wind chills in the sub- zero to single digit range. High temperatures will approach freezing on Monday, but it`s possible some inland areas to remain below freezing from tomorrow night until Tuesday. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions with mo sunny skies through today. N to NW`rly breezes today with gusts upwards of 10-15 kt at times. NW winds and gusts relax tonight as high pressure builds back in. Outlook: VFR conditions will likely continue through Friday as cold high pressure remains in place. This weekend, an extended period of poor flying conditions as a coastal low develops and brings significant snow, poor visibilities, and potential blowing and drifting snow due to wind gusts of 35-40 kt to inland East NC. && .MARINE... Current SCAs will drop this afternoon as NW winds decrease to 10-15 kt and seas subside to 3-5 ft. Benign marine conditions will then persist until Friday night. Outlook: A rapidly deepening low pressure system will produce extremely dangerous marine conditions this weekend. Storm force winds are likely with the potential for Hurricane Force wind gusts, especially near the Gulf Stream waters. Seas could reach 12-20 ft. Storm Watches have been issued for all marine zones save for the Pamlico and Pungo Rivers (Gale Watch) starting Saturday evening. Conditions will slowly improve Sunday night with winds forecast to drop below SCA criteria by Monday afternoon. 6+ ft seas may linger well into Tuesday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ029- 044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205. Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196- 198-199-203. High Wind Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for NCZ203>205. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for NCZ204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ131- 230-231. Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for AMZ131-137. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135. Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for AMZ135-154-156-230-231. Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for AMZ136. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ150- 156-158. Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for AMZ150-152. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152- 154. Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for AMZ158. && $$ |
| #1258430 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:09 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 355 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 345 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 - A brief respite from frost and freeze conditions tonight and Friday night with near seasonable high temperatures Friday around 70F. - Rare, Significant Arctic Cold Outbreak Arrives Saturday Night. The current forecast calls for low temperatures in the 20s, along with wind chills in the teens, both Sunday and Monday mornings. - Windy conditions develop Saturday afternoon and night with high chance of peak wind gusts 35 to 45 mph. Dangerous Gale conditions are forecast to develop over the Atlantic waters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Today-Fri...High pressure maintains a mostly dry weather pattern with a slow warming trend. Wind flow turns NE today and max temps climb a few degrees from yesterday yet remaining below normal in the 60s under mostly sunny skies. No freeze concerns tonight as temps hold in the 40s except upper 30s far NW with patchy frost. Some moisture will get pulled northward Fri and bring a small shower chance to the Treasure coast, otherwise dry with near seasonable temperatures for a change around 70/low 70s. This warming trend will be short-lived, however. Sat-Wed...Broad area of low pressure is forecast to form very close to Florida Fri night before lifting into the Atlantic and developing into a nor`easter. As it passes by early Saturday, rain chances have lowered especially across the north (now 20%) while still carrying 30-40% south of Orlando. Rainfall amounts look quite meager, less than one tenth /0.10/ of an inch. By late Sat morning and into the afternoon, a cold front passes through the area. The initial impact will be a burst of strong west- northwest winds. Forecast model soundings remain consistent showing peak wind gusts from 35-45 mph for Saturday late afternoon and evening as the low pressure rapidly deepens offshore. Winds veer slightly more out of the northwest on Saturday night, pushing Arctic air down the peninsula with little to no Gulf modification as parcel trajectories originate from the Panhandle and points north. Daily record lows are anticipated on Sunday morning. An additional freeze/hard freeze anticipated on Monday morning. Temperatures only slowly moderate with another freeze Tue morning over the interior. Extreme cold risks have remained consistent over the last several updates: SUNDAY AM: There is a 60-90% chance of a hard freeze (<= 27 deg F) on Sunday morning for all areas except Martin County (20-50%). Much of east central Florida currently has a 70-90% chance of wind chills in the teens with single digit wind chills north of Orlando. MONDAY AM: The risk for a hard freeze (<= 27 deg F) is 50-80% for many locations, except the immediate Space and Treasure Coasts where the probabilities are somewhat lower (30-60%). Bitterly cold wind chills are expected to persist, though with lighter winds (upper teens-mid 20s). As mentioned above, another round of very cold temperatures is forecast on Tuesday morning. For additional cold weather support, including probabilities and durations of specific temperatures for your location, visit weather.gov/mlb/coldsupport. With a widespread freeze and extreme cold event now likely, residents, officials, and agricultural operations should begin considering how to prepare. Those with inadequate shelter or heat will be most affected. Exposed pipes may freeze, and some non- native plants and trees will succumb to the elements if not properly protected. The risk to non-cold-hardy plants and palms is much higher due to the wind-driven cold that is expected. High temperatures on Sunday should hold in the 40s Orlando northward and only reach the lower 50s south of Melbourne despite full sunshine. A gradual (slow) warming trend commences next week with max temps returning to the 60s Tue and lower 70s Wed. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 High pressure nudges eastward today across the SE US. Briefly enhanced N/NW winds this morning will decrease this afternoon and a period of improved conditions is forecast as the high sits nearly overhead late Today into Friday. Low pressure is then expected to form offshore NE Florida by early Sat, and rapidly deepen becoming a strong nor`easter as it moves up the Eastern Seaboard. Dangerous Gale conditions are anticipated by Saturday night in the wake of this storm. High pressure center will move east across the deep South Sunday and Monday and reach the Florida peninsula Tuesday. NW winds 15 kt this morning will become N this afternoon and decrease near 10 knots. Light and variable winds early Fri will become west to southwest 5-10 knots ahead of the front, increasing by Saturday morning to 15-20 kt. Conditions will deteriorate further during Sat with sustained Gale-force winds arriving by Saturday eve. Conditions remain hazardous Sunday with Advisory criteria then a more noticeably improvement Mon and esp Tue. Seas generally 3 ft nearshore today up to 6 ft in the Gulf Stream this morning. Seas 2-3 ft on Friday, building rapidly by Saturday afternoon 7-9 ft offshore and 4-6 ft nearshore. Fully developed seas of 14-16 ft are forecast in the Gulf Stream Sat night/early Sun with sustained Gale conditions and wind gusts approaching Storm-force. Seas will be slow to subside as north wind component persists (albeit decreasing) early next week which should keep seas 7-9 ft Mon in the Gulf Stream. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1232 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 VFR conditions prevail at all ECFL terminals through the TAF period. Northwesterly winds 5-10 kts tonight veer in the morning, becoming northeasterly by the early afternoon, then becoming light Thursday evening and night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 308 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 A developing onshore (NE) wind flow today up to 10 mph will push the lowest RH values deeper over the interior, reaching near 30 percent west of Orlando. Moisture increases Friday and Friday night ahead of a very strong cold front but only isolated to scattered showers are forecast Friday night and early Saturday. Winds will be light Friday, less than 10 mph, becoming westerly ahead of the front. Strong and gusty winds are forecast to develop Saturday afternoon behind the cold front as low pressure deepens off the Southeast US coast. Sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts 35 to 45 mph are forecast Saturday afternoon and night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 61 45 69 46 / 0 0 0 20 MCO 65 46 71 50 / 0 0 0 20 MLB 65 49 71 47 / 0 0 10 10 VRB 67 49 71 47 / 0 0 20 10 LEE 63 43 70 46 / 0 0 0 30 SFB 64 44 70 47 / 0 0 0 20 ORL 64 46 70 50 / 0 0 0 20 FPR 68 48 71 47 / 0 0 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-044>046- 053-058-144. Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-547-647. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ141-247-254- 547. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1258429 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:03 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 402 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Winter Storm Watches have been issued from late Friday night/early Saturday into Sunday for all but the far northern zones. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Winter Storm Watches have been issued for a majority of the FA for the weekend storm, with northern areas left out. Strong winds and a significant snowfall are expected within the Watch, with highest confidence across southern/SE VA and NE NC. In addition, very strong winds are expected late Saturday and Sunday along the coast, with potentially damaging wind gusts possible. 2) Well below normal temperatures remain through early next week, keeping localized impacts (i.e icy roads) in place through the winter WX this weekend. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for the entire area early this morning and temperatures Friday through Sunday will be even colder and additional headlines will likely be necessary. && .DISCUSSION... As of 335 AM EST Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...While significant disagreement remains amongst the deterministic and ensemble guidance, confidence is high enough to warrant the issuance of a Winter Storm Watch for most of the CWA from late Friday night/early Saturday through Sunday afternoon. The main mode of disagreement continues to be the battle zone between drier air from the N/NW associated with a very strong area of high pressure (~1045 mb) over the Plains, and an intense low pressure system developing off the SE coast late Fri night/Sat. The GFS/GEFS is the NW outlier, wrapping significant amounts of moisture and QPF all the way into central VA, while the ECMWF/GEM are farther south and somewhat more suppressed with this moisture. The 00Z NAM is the opposite solution: almost completely dry other than in far southern VA and NE NC. One trend that continues in most of the models is a "piece" of the sfc high over the Plains ridging SE into the local area Friday into early Saturday, with low pressure across the eastern Gulf coast showing an inverted sfc trough extending north into the southern Appalachians. This has trended to an initial overrunning precip event (all snow) that could begin as early as Friday (but is more probably late Friday night through Saturday morning). For the piedmont, this portion of the storm may account for a majority of the snowfall. SLR values will be very high, 15:1 to 18:1 so even a relatively low amount of QPF could lead to a significant accumulation (which will be efficient on area roads given temperatures well below freezing). Still think the GFS is too far north with this feature (and keeps it maintained into Sat night even after the coastal low rapidly intensifies), so forecasted snow totals are well below what the GFS depicts over the NW 1/2 of the CWA. Part 2 of the storm gets amped up later Saturday, and is expected to peak Saturday night into early Sunday. The models (even the GFS) are all in pretty good agreement that the digging upper trough becomes cutoff as it drops SE from the TN Valley (at 12Z/Sat), to the GA-SC coastal plain by Sat evening (00Z/Sun). The resulting sfc low is forecast to deepen by as much as 15 mb/6 hr Sat evening as it drifts NE off the coast. Therefore, in addition to heavy snowfall, which is of highest confidence across SE VA and NE NC, very strong winds are likely to develop for coastal areas, with winds rather strong even for inland zones. Strong winds and a significant snowfall are expected within the Watch, with highest confidence across southern/SE VA and NE NC. Decided against a Blizzard Watch for the coast, but as timing confidence improves, a Blizzard Warning is certainly plausible for portions of Hampton Roads and coastal NE NC Saturday night/Sunday morning where the winds may be potentially damaging. Our latest snow forecast blends all of this and leads to 1-2" over the far N/NW, with 12"+ in portions of NE NC into VA Beach. As mentioned above, impacts will vary across the region, but the synoptic setup supports the potential for a high-impact winter storm. Additional messaging and headlines will need adjustments over the next few forecast cycles. Please continue to follow the latest forecast. KEY MESSAGE 2...A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for the entire area early this morning, though as has been prevalent the past 3 days, the NBM temperatures have been terrible, verifying nearly 10 degrees too cold in some areas, which is leading to a Cold WX Advsy that has been very marginal with only spotty values down in the single digits. Will maintain the Advisory for now and re-assess over the next few hrs. Otherwise, today will continue to be well below normal with highs struggling to get out of the 20s across the north, with lower 30s south. Wind chills will struggle to rise above the mid teens to mid 20s during the day (coldest on the eastern shore). Tonight will again be very cold, though winds are expected to be light as the sfc ridge of high pressure extends into the area, keeping wind chills near ambient temps that will mostly be in the teens, with some single digit values N and NW. Friday is even colder with highs only in the 20s for most, along with a chc for light snow mainly along and W of I-95. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 100 AM EST Thursday... Mainly VFR conditions in place across area terminals will persist through the 06z/29 TAF period, the exception being a brief period with MVFR CIGs possible at ORF due to cold air over the Bay and elevated N winds. Otherwise, skies are mostly clear with NNW winds of 5-10 kt or less inland and. Locations closer to the coast, including ORF and ECG, will see gusts of 20-25 kt through ~11Z before diminishing. Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions persist through Friday across the area. Continue to watch a developing coastal low, which is forecast to strengthen Saturday/Saturday night. This system will likely create another round of winter weather for the terminals, especially later Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Exact impacts and locations aren`t clear yet, but widespread flight restrictions are likely during this timeframe. Strong winds are likely to develop at least for coastal terminals with this storm, particularly Saturday night and early Sunday with gusts of 40 kt+. Elevated winds are expected farther inland, gusting to 20-30 kt. Slowly improving conditions are expected later Sunday into Monday as winds diminish and VFR returns from W to E. && .MARINE... As of 155 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories in effect for all local waters this morning. - Storm Watches issued for the Ches. Bay, Lower James, all coastal waters, and the Currituck Sound starting Sat afternoon. Gale Watches issued for the upper tidal rivers. - A Freezing Spray Advisory has been issued for the Chesapeake Bay, coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light, and the upper rivers from tonight into Thu. Additional freezing spray is likely this weekend. Another push of CAA behind a cold front has triggered another surge of northerly winds, primarily over the Chesapeake Bay. Latest obs indicate winds of 15-25kt with a few of the higher sites showing gusts up to 30kt. Similar conditions are present over the rivers and Currituck Sound, but with gusts only 20-25kt. So far, winds are under-performing over the coastal waters with latest obs showing 10- 15kt. SCAs are in effect for all of the marine zones. Despite the under-performance, will leave the SCAs in place for now over the coastal waters in case there`s a sunrise surge as there often is in these scenarios. Otherwise, expecting gradually diminishing NW winds through the day and into tomorrow, though remaining breezy. Seas will be 3-4ft today, then 2-3ft tomorrow. Waves in the bay 2-3ft today and 1-2ft tomorrow. Attention then turns to the increasingly likely significant coastal storm over the weekend. There is high confidence in a strong surface low forming along and traveling up the coast early Saturday through Sunday. The models still have some variation in exact track of the low, but do consistently depict a very tight pressure gradient and drastic pressure changes over a short time period. Still sticking with blended guidance at this point since the high res models are still mostly out of range. this morning`s forecast package has not changed much since yesterday afternoon`s forecast, but am feeling more confident in it. NNE look to gradually increase through the day Saturday, reaching gale force gusts across most waters Saturday afternoon. Winds continue to increase Sat night, then peak Sunday morning. This peak would be 35-45kt over the bay, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters with gusts 50-60kt. The upper rivers would be a bit lower, but still well within Gale range. This forecast is supported by local wind probs, which have 80-85% for 48kt+ wind gusts for the southern coastal waters and 50-70% in the bay and northern coastal waters. Did go ahead and put up Storm Watches for the Bay, lower James, coastal waters, and Currituck Sound starting Saturday afternoon and going into Sunday night. Went with Gale Watches for the upper rivers starting Sat evening. Seas during this period will be 8-12ft. Waves in the bay climb to 7-8ft. Lastly, periods of light freezing spray are expected through the end of the week due to cold water/air temperatures and gusty winds. Moderate freezing spray over the weekend will likely require Freezing Spray Advisories. Tides/Coastal Flooding... Given the strength of the low coinciding with higher astronomical tides, widespread coastal flooding is increasingly likely this weekend. Early indications are for moderate to locally major coastal flooding across the Mouth of the Bay and the Virginia Beach and Currituck Outer Banks coastline, with minor to moderate coastal flooding possible elsewhere. With a strong northerly wind, locations in the upper bay could actually see low water during this period. The worst coastal flooding conditions look to be Sat night into Sun. && .CLIMATE... Record Low Max Temperatures for Sat Jan 31: - RIC: 23 (1948) - ORF: 25 (1936) - SBY: 24 (2019) - ECG: 29 (1965) Daily Record Snowfall for Sat Jan 31 and Sun Feb 1: - Date: Sat Jan 31 Sun Feb 1 - RIC: 7.0" (1948) 3.1" (1948) - ORF: 4.0" (1980) 4.0" (1910) - SBY: 4.0" (2010) 4.0" (1962) - ECG: 5.0" (1980) 7.0" (1948) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MDZ021>025. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for MDZ023>025. NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for VAZ099. Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for VAZ092-093-095>098-100-524-525. Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon for VAZ060-061-065>069-079-087. Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for VAZ076>078-080>086-088>090-512>520-522-523. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ630. Freezing Spray Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634. Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for ANZ630-631-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ631- 632-634-656-658. Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for ANZ632>634-638-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ635>638. Freezing Spray Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ635>638. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652-654. Freezing Spray Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652-654. && $$ |
| #1258428 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:54 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 349 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Cold Weather Advisories issued for the risk of dangerous wind chills tonight into Friday morning. Those may need to be extended into Friday night and Saturday morning. There is a growing potential for accumulating snow, gusty winds and coastal flooding for eastern and southeast New England Sunday and Sunday night, although there is still uncertainty in the specific details. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Stronger shot of Arctic air produces dangerous cold/low wind chills tonight into Friday morning, possibly into Friday night to early Saturday as well. Significant accretion of freezing spray is also expected for vessels navigating the waters. - While details are still uncertain, there is a growing potential for a coastal storm to bring accumulating snow and gusty winds to eastern and southeastern New England Sunday and Sunday night, to go along with the potential for coastal flooding for the Sunday morning/evening high tides. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Stronger shot of Arctic air produces dangerous cold/low wind chills tonight into Friday morning, possibly into Friday night to early Saturday as well. Significant accretion of freezing spray is also expected for vessels navigating the waters. Much below normal temperatures continue through the workweek into this weekend, to go along with dry weather, being governed by an active northern stream and sustained WNW midlevel flow. However starting later this afternoon, a shot of even stronger Arctic air builds into Southern New England. 850 mb temps drop to a frigid -20 to -22C through tonight, which modifies only very slightly into Fri. The combination of this level of low-level cold air with the existing snowpack should favor widespread sub-zero air temperatures at least tonight but potentially into Friday evening/early Saturday as well. WNW winds around 15 to 20 mph picking up tonight given these air temps will lead to dangerous cold and low wind chills. After coordination, we`ve hoisted Cold Weather Advisories for much of Southern New England except for the Cape and Islands starting tonight through 11 AM Friday morning. Certainly the name of the headline might lead one to undersell the risk as we have cold weather 5 months out of the year, so a reminder this headline is meant to address dangerous cold leading to frostbite given prolonged exposure. The lowest wind chills look to be in the higher terrain with values in the 20 to 25 below zero range; though it is more marginal in the lower elevations with values in the 15 to 20 below range, it just made more sense from a messaging standpoint to expand the headline into most of the rest of Southern New England. For the Cape and Islands, values around 5 to 10 below zero look more likely and felt was too marginal for those locations. The lowest of the windchills should be taking place just before sunrise, but will set the stage for a frigid Friday with highs only in the single digits to mid teens. Regardless, dress in layers and limit time outdoors, and also check in on the elderly and pets to ensure they are prepared for this cold. Additional cold weather advisories could be needed for Friday night into Saturday morning, but the potential for some cloud cover working southward from northern New England and lighter winds cast uncertainty. This arctic air could also lead to substantial accretion of icing on vessels over the waters; heavy freezing spray warnings and freezing spray advisories have also been issued for the waters. Key Message 2...While details are still uncertain, there is a growing potential for a winter storm to bring accumulating snow and gusty winds to eastern and southeastern New England Sunday and Sunday night, to go along with the potential for coastal flooding for the Sunday morning/evening high tides. Continuing to monitor latest developments regarding a significant coastal storm which could affect Southern New England Sunday. There is a growing potential for accumulating snow and gusty winds for Cape Cod, the Islands and perhaps further westward into South Shore and the I-95 corridor. While interior Southern New England seems less likely for significant impacts, by no means can they be ruled out of the woods. Ensemble means and their individual members are showing increasing consensus and ensemble-member-clustering toward a rapidly- strengthening initial coastal low pressure just offshore the NC/SC coastline Saturday, in vicinity of the Gulfstream ocean current. That much has become more clear. By Saturday night/early Sunday, as the primary cyclone pulls away well east of Cape Hatteras, ECMWF EPS/GEM GEPS/GEFS ensemble mean sea level pressure field then becomes rather large, with some bagginess in the ensemble mean isobars oriented to the northeast of the main low center. What has become a trend across the deterministic model suite, and is probably the cause of the bagginess to the isobars in the ensembles, is the development of secondary (spurious?) lows east of the main cyclone`s center as it starts to pull away from the NC Outer Banks. Perhaps this is due to convective feedback issues given the strong air-sea baroclinic setting - hard to really know. Why is this even important? The models handle this very complicated interaction, moving forward in time, in varied ways. This ranges from a consolidation of lows as it nears or passes south of 40N/70W, which is really a best- case scenario for us, as the system`s precip shield would pass far enough SE for a more glancing blow to Cape Cod, the Islands and perhaps South Shore. On the other hand, models like yesterday`s ECMWF show the potential for one of these lows to, for lack of a better term, "slingshot" north/northwest toward our far eastern coastline later Sunday into Sunday night. That solution would be the worst of all possible outcomes, which would spread a larger precip shield much further westward than just the eastern SNE coast, generate a period of strong to potentially damaging NE/N wind gusts, while also significantly elevating the risk for coastal flooding. It is still too early to say which one of those possible solutions, or something in between, is more likely. We`re now four days from a possible impact, and with still quite a bit of uncertainty and waffling/wobbling in the models, will take a more probabilistic approach when it comes to delineating possible hazards. The risk for accumulating snowfall, potentially significant, is increasing for the Cape and Islands and southeast New England. NBM 5.0 24-hr probs of exceeding snowfall of 6 or more inches are now in the moderate to high (50-65%) range for the Cape and Islands; values then taper to lower to moderate (35-50%) range for the Boston- Providence I-95 corridor eastward toward South Shore and South Coast, with low (20% or less) from the North Shore westward through the remainder of SNE. The 24-hr NBM 5.0 probs of a foot or more of snow are in the 40-50% range for the the Cape and Islands, and are around 25-35% for South Shore. The Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index now shows high (50-70%) probs of Moderate winter storm impacts south and east of I-95. After a coordination call with WPC, we agreed to wait another model cycle or two before winter storm watches are considered to get a better handle on the westward extent of the precip shield. How close any deepening low pressure gets to our eastern coast will also determine how strong NE to N winds develop, as well as coastal flooding given that there is a full moon this weekend. Stevens Institute guidance suggests a 1.5 to 2.5 ft storm surge with wave action, with the main risk being for eastern MA given NE to N wind trajectories - Boston, South Shore, Cape Cod, Nantucket. That guidance offers widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding for both the Sunday morning and Sunday evening high tides. As with any coastal flood forecast, timing of the peak surge with high tide will be critical, as will the effect of wave run-up/wave action. Beach erosion also could be possible given 20+ ft waves offshore. The bottom line is that while there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in how far west would the snow shield advance Sunday/Sunday night, the chances for significant accumlating snow and gusty winds are on the increase for eastern and southeast New England. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z TAFs: High confidence. VFR. Light WNW winds at 5-10 knots tonight and Thursday. Increasing west winds Thursday night with LLWS possible in the evening. KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. VFR. Light WNW winds around 10 knots through Thursday KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. VFR. Light WNW winds through Thursday. Could be some LLWS towards Thursday evening as winds aloft increase faster then surface winds. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Saturday: VFR. Saturday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Slight chance SN. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 55 kt. Chance SN. Sunday Night: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 60 kt. Chance SN. Monday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. NW winds today at 15-20 knots increasing to 25-30 knots tonight. Seas increase to 5-6 feet again tonight with the higher winds. Light to moderate freezing spray likely today esspically between MVY and ACK. Moderate to heavy freezing spray expected tonight and lasting into Friday evening. Best chance for heavy freezing spray is in the MVY and ACK sounds. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Freezing spray, slight chance of freezing rain. Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Freezing spray likely. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Saturday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Local rough seas. Freezing spray, chance of snow. Local visibility 1 nm or less. Sunday: Moderate risk for storm force winds with gusts up to 60 kt. Rough seas up to 22 ft. Snow likely, freezing spray. Visibility 1 nm or less. Sunday Night: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 24 ft. Freezing spray, chance of snow. Areas of visibility 1 nm or less. Monday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 21 ft. Freezing spray. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Friday for CTZ002>004. MA...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Friday for MAZ002>021-026. RI...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Friday for RIZ001>004-006-007. MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ231-235>237-250-251-254-256. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ231-251. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ232>235-237. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ232>234-255. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ250-254. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ255-256. && $$ |
| #1258427 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:06 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 355 AM AST Thu Jan 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 313 AM AST Thu Jan 29 2026 * Mostly fair and stable weather conditions are expected through Friday, with brief morning showers across eastern areas of Puerto Rico and the USVI, and afternoon showers developing over western and northwestern Puerto Rico; minor ponding on roads is possible. * There is an increasing risk of urban and small stream flooding from the weekend into early next week with the approach of a frontal boundary from the west of the region. * A High Rip Current Risk is in effect for the beaches from Rincon to Fajardo, Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands. Please remember, rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water, where it becomes difficult to return to safety. * For boaters, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the northern offshore waters through tonight. && .Short Term(Today through Saturday)... Issued at 313 AM AST Thu Jan 29 2026 A moist shallow layer up to 8kft brought mostly cloudy skies overnight and light passing showers across the regional waters. Minor rainfall accumulations were observed over portions of the USVI and eastern PR. Minimum temperatures were from the low and mid 70s across the lower elevations to the low 60s across the higher elevations. The wind was light and variable over land areas. For the rest of the morning hours passing showers will continue to move at times across the east and southern portions of PR, followed by moderate to locally heavy showers developing over the NW quadrant of PR this afternoon. The precipitable water content is expected to fluctuate between 1.00-1.50 inches through the rest of the short term period. For Friday, a weak induced surface trough will bring another surge in low-level moisture content, enhancing morning showers across the USVI and inducing the development of shallow afternoon convection over the mountain ranges of PR. Winds are expected to turn more southerly by Friday under the influence of a weak surface high pressure east of the region and frontal boundary to our north. These winds are expected to steer showers across the northern coastal areas of PR late in the afternoon hours. A gradual trend into a wetter pattern is still expected for Saturday as pooling of moisture continues across the eastern Caribbean under a deep layer southerly wind flow. The flood risk is expected to increase in general during the weekend, residents and visitors are urged to monitor the weather conditions. && .Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)... Issued at 313 AM AST Thu Jan 29 2026 The long-term forecast remains tied to a frontal boundary lingering over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The latest global models continue to suggest an increase in precipitable water content to between 2.00 and 2.25 inches, well above climatological normals, from Sunday through midweek. At the upper levels, the region will remain positioned between a trough over the western Atlantic and a ridge to the southeast through late Tuesday or Wednesday. Depending on the exact placement and evolution of these features, the combination of upper-level dynamics and persistent low-level moisture convergence along the frontal boundary will support widespread rainfall. This activity is expected to increase in coverage from Sunday through Tuesday across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Given the anticipated atmospheric setup, there is a significant potential for heavy rainfall across the area beginning early next week. As the front approaches on Sunday and Monday, the influx of Caribbean moisture, south-southeasterly winds, daytime heating, and local orographic effects will likely trigger heavy rain across portions of northwestern and northern Puerto Rico. As the front passes over the islands, winds will shift from the north, pushing rainfall activity toward the eastern, southeastern, and southern portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands from late Monday through Wednesday. Potential impacts include ponding of water on roadways, urban and small-stream flooding, and localized flash flooding. Isolated thunderstorms and gusty winds cannot be ruled out with the heavier shower activity. In general, weather conditions are expected to remain unsettled, with the primary concerns being above-normal rainfall and localized flooding potential through at least Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 313 AM AST Thu Jan 29 2026 Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail across all terminals during the next 24 hrs. However, SCT/BKN cigs btw FL030-060 should continue over the PR terminals through the mid-morning hours with mostly VCSH expected. Afternoon SHRA expected in and around TJBQ fm 29/18-23z, causing tempo MVFR to brief IFR conds. Low-level winds will continue ESE at 8-12 kt with sea breeze variations and higher gusts aft 29/14z. && .MARINE... Issued at 313 AM AST Thu Jan 29 2026 Light to moderate easterly winds will prevail through the end of the week as surface high pressure shifts eastward, with seas generally subsiding across the local waters with the exception of some pulses of swell arriving from time to time. By Monday, a northwesterly to northerly long- period swell is expected to reach the regional waters, combining with increasing winds to produce choppy to rough seas and potentially hazardous marine conditions, including Small Craft Advisory criteria across the offshore Atlantic waters and passages. An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is also expected from this weekend into early next week, especially over the northwestern Atlantic waters and the Mona Passage, with lightning and gusty winds possible. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 313 AM AST Thu Jan 29 2026 Pulses of weak northerly swells will continue to affect the Atlantic waters through the remainder of the week, with the strongest pulse expected this afternoon. A high rip current risk is in effect for the beaches from Rincon to Fajardo, Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands through tonight. Beachgoers are encouraged to monitor the forecast for updates and changing conditions. Please remember, rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water, where it becomes difficult to return to safety. Residents and visitors should also note that beach conditions may further deteriorate early next week due to increasing winds and the arrival of a stronger northwesterly to northerly long-period swell, potentially leading to hazardous beach conditions. Additionally, a change in the weather pattern may bring showers and thunderstorms from this weekend into early next week, increasing risks for beachgoers. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for PRZ001-002-005- 008-010-012. VI...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for VIZ001. AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST tonight for AMZ711. && $$ |
| #1258426 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:21 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 202 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for all of Southeast NC and Northeast SC. Based on the latest forecasts, a Cold Weather Advisory will not be required for the Bi-state region tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Temperatures well below normal will result in periods of dangerously low wind chill temperatures below 16 degrees through at least Monday night. 2) Although the potential for winter weather and hazardous travel conditions this weekend are increasing, there remains some uncertainty with respect to key details. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures well below normal will result in periods of dangerously low wind chill temperatures below 16 degrees through at least Monday night. A series of arctic air masses moving over the Southeast the next week will keep temperatures 10-20 degrees below normal. A Cold Weather Advisory may be needed for a portion of the area Fri night. Extreme Cold Warnings may be needed this weekend and potentially for the start of next week. KEY MESSAGE 2:...Although the potential for winter weather and hazardous travel conditions this weekend are increasing, there remains a lot of uncertainty with respect to key details. The large scale pattern and details have not changed. An unseasonably cold air mass will be in place over the Southeast this weekend (temperatures 20 degrees below normal at times). A southern stream shortwave/Gulf coast low crosses northern Florida then moves up the coast. Impressive 5h low/trough dropping south from the Great Lakes (originating around Hudson Bay) will enhance divergence aloft over the coastal low. A 150kt jet at 300mb moves across the low on Sat with the low in the favorable exit region, leading to impressive cyclogenesis off the Southeast coast. The guidance has come into somewhat better agreement with respect to the timing of the interaction between the surface and mid-level features and the location of the lows. Last night the surface low`s location off the coast in much of the guidance ranged between Cape Fear and Cape Hatteras and anywhere from a hundred miles offshore to almost 500 miles offshore. There has been a shift with the position of the surface low to east of Cape Lookout and southeast of Cape Hatteras, around 200 miles from shore. This sets up the potential for significant snowfall across the area, although there are likely to be a sharp snowfall gradients. Still a lot of uncertainty regarding specific forecast details. Anticipate a healthy dry slot developing, which will wrap into the 5h low and have at least some impact on the system. The exact location of the low and how much/quickly the dry slot wraps in will both be factors in where the heaviest precipitation bands set up. May see a bit of light rain or snow around daybreak Sat, but really think the precipitation will hold off until Sat. Much like the last event, the in situ air mass is very dry, it will take some time to moisten up and initially forcing is weak and the precipitation will not be very heavy. Storm really starts to crank up later Sat into Sat night before moving off to the northeast Sun. While there is likely to be at least one area where total QPF exceeds 1", think these areas are more likely to be north and east of the forecast area (assuming the low location is remotely accurate). All indications are total QPF 0.30"-0.60" across the forecast area. The key to the forecast will be the snow ratio. While the air mass is cold, the coastal influence is strong and forecast soundings do show warming in the mid-levels as the flow aloft becomes more onshore and strengthens in response to the deepening low. Not enough for a change-over to freezing rain or sleet, but enough to affect the snow ratio. So while surface temperatures Sat night (the likely time of heaviest snowfall) suggest ratios of 15:1 or higher, not confident this will come to fruition. For now thinking a good range across the forecast area is 3-6" with some higher pockets, especially along the northern border of the forecast area. However, there is potential for higher amounts (like double the forecast range). Somewhere there will be a band that sets up with double digit snowfall potential. Storm structure and location would favor north of the local area, but can`t rule it out for the Cape Fear region. Another concern will be visibility restrictions due to falling/blowing snow. Wind gusts in excess of 25 mph will likely lead to white out conditions at times. Given the slight increase in confidence and the snowfall forecast a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the area. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the period. SKC into mid to late daytime morning hrs followed by opaque/thin cirrus thereafter. Weak CAA surge this morning will result in NW to N winds around 10 kt, with gusts up to 15+ kt possible between 14Z and 20Z. Center of bubble high pressure to temporarily park overhead late this aftn thru this evening. look for winds to diminish to less than 5 kt, possibly going calm at a few select terminals during this evening. Extended Forecast...Another CAA surge to occur during the pre- dawn Fri hrs, followed by even colder temps. Flight restrictions are expected to develop with the next Winter storm system this weekend. Snow chances start late Fri night and continue thru Sunday morning, with heaviest rates and strongest winds late Sat and Sat night, potential producing brief whiteout conditions. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Weak CAA surge this morning will result in winds becoming NW-N 10-20 kt early this morning thru midday. There-after, weak bubble high moves overhead with the sfc pg relaxing. With NAA later this aftn into this evening combined with a relaxed sfc pg, N winds will further diminish to AOB 10 kt and continue thru sunrise Fri with hints of another CAA surge by or after sunrise Fri. Seas generally 2 to 4 ft early this morning, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft this afternoon and to around 2 ft tonight. Short period wind waves to dominate with an underlying 1 ft 10 second period E-SE swell. Friday through Monday... Marine conditions will deteriorate late Fri with conditions meeting Small Craft Advisory thresholds Fri night. Winds continue to increase Sat into Sun with Gales all but certain and potential for Storm Force gusts. Conditions will start to improve late Sun as the still strengthening storm moves away from the region. However, treacherous marine conditions will continue through at least midday Mon. Potential for double digit seas late Sat into Sun after starting out 2-3 ft on Fri, even with a lot of offshore component. An easterly swell will be present through the weekend but the wind wave will be the bigger story and quite significant, running in excess of 5 or 6 ft at times. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Winter Storm Watch late Friday night for NCZ087-096-099- 105>110. SC...Winter Storm Watch late Friday night for SCZ017-023-024-032- 033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1258425 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 150 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 104 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 - Another intense arctic blast likely arrives by Saturday with more hard freezes and dangerous wind chills returning. Wind chills in the single digits are becoming increasingly likely (60 to 90% chance). Continue to monitor this potential for dangerous cold as we approach the weekend. - There is a high (90%) chance of gale conditions over the waters late Friday into Saturday. Very dangerous marine conditions are expected with gusts up to 40 knots and building seas. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 104 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 High pressure moves overhead today with tranquil weather expected. Highs will be in the mid 50s to low 60s with light winds. Moisture will be on the increase tonight with some clouds moving in late. Thus, tonight will be "warmer" than previous nights with 30s inland and near 40 along the coast. Big changes come in the Long Term. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 104 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 In the mid and upper-levels, a weak shortwave moves across the Southeast on Friday before a much more potent trough drops across the southeast US Friday night into Saturday. At the surface, an area of low pressure moves across the Gulf Coast Friday, then begins to deepen off the Southeast US coast Saturday into Sunday. Meanwhile, strong high pressure drops into the Great Plains Saturday and into the Mid-South Sunday. For Friday, as the low moves overhead, we`ll have a few scattered showers during the morning and afternoon. However, there`s some dry air in the low levels still lingering, so we don`t expect much measurable rain. That dry air complicates the temperature forecast a bit too. As the rain falls in that dry layer near the surface, we may see some evaporative cooling take place, which would keep areas in the Panhandle and southeast Alabama in the 40s to low 50s on Friday given cloud cover hanging around. This is reflected in some of the hi- res model guidance this evening. If the clouds break a bit, then temperatures may warm back up into the upper 50s. There is quite a bit of uncertainty with temperature spread in the HREF guidance of 8 degrees between the 25th and 75th percentiles Friday afternoon. To lean more into hi-res guidance, I lowered highs over the Panhandle and southeast Alabama, but don`t be surprised to see more changes there. The much colder air arrives Friday night in our western area. Strong winds will usher in temperatures in the 20s by Saturday morning in southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and areas north of I-10 in the Panhandle. 30s are expected elsewhere. However, with the wind, it will feel more like the teens and 20s for much of the area. It won`t be much better during the day Saturday either with highs only rebounding the mid 30s to low 40s for most of the area. But, the wind will still be blowing with winds of 15-25 mph and gusts of 30-40 mph. There is a low to medium chance (20-50%) of gusts exceeding 40 mph, which would necessitate a Wind Advisory. But these winds will make it feel like the mid 20s to mid 30s for most of the day. In addition to the cold, there is a slight chance (20%) of some precipitation moving in on the backside of the low off the Southeast US. This will have to battle some drier air, but there may be just enough moisture for some light snow or flurries around the Tifton and Fitzgerald areas Saturday afternoon. Confidence isn`t particularly high on this chance, given the battle with dry air. If snow were to occur, accumulations and impacts are not expected. Saturday night will be the coldest night of this event. Widespread lows in the teens with 20s near the coast will result in a widespread hard freeze. Additionally, this will be a long duration freeze, lasting some 15 to 18 hours (or more). This puts extra strain on exposed pipes. Additionally, the wind will still be blowing around 10-15 mph. Nearly the entire area will see wind chill values in the single digits at some point Saturday night and Sunday morning. There is a high chance (60-90%) of wind chills in the single digits Saturday night. This is extremely dangerous cold for this part of the country. Unprotected or unsheltered people may experience hypothermia without adequate warmth. Ensure you`re protecting the 4 Ps from this dangerous cold: People, Pets, Pipes, Plants. Sunday will still be cold and breezy with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Sunday night will feature another hard freeze with lows in the lower to mid 20s and wind chills in the teens. A moderating trend kicks off Monday as ridging tries to build in aloft. Highs will return to the 50s Monday and eventually the 60s by mid week. Lows will also rise from the 20s back to the 30s and 40s by mid week. Another couple shortwaves move across the southeast Tuesday with low chances of some showers by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 104 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 VFR conditions prevail for the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 104 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will continue today before clocking around out of the east to southeast on Friday. An area of low pressure will move over the marine area Friday a few showers. Behind the low, winds will become northerly to northwesterly and quickly increase to near gale force. Gusts of 40 to 45 kt are becoming increasingly likely, especially in the offshore waters where chances are now medium to high (50 to 80%). This will result in widespread gale conditions across the region, and given the strong winds. Gale Watches are now in effect for the Gulf waters, and it`s likely advisories will be needed even for the St Andrews Bay. Conditions will remain around gale levels through Saturday evening before dropping to below advisory levels late Sunday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 104 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Light and variable winds are expected today as high pressure moves overhead. Some pockets of critically low RH are expected in the southeast Big Bend and east of I-75 in Georgia. Winds around 10 mph become easterly to southeasterly Friday morning, then turn northwesterly in the afternoon as a low pressure system passes to our south. Dispersions both days will be poor for most of the area given the lighter winds and low mixing heights. A few light showers are possible across the area during the day Friday, but this will likely not amount to a wetting rain. Dispersions become very high on Saturday as northwesterly transport winds of 30-40 mph are expected with high mixing heights near 6,000 ft. Even surface winds will be around 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph. RH values will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s as well, resulting in elevated fire concerns for Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 104 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Very little precipitation is forecast over the next 7 days, and there are no flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 59 36 59 36 / 0 0 30 10 Panama City 58 42 60 33 / 0 0 30 10 Dothan 55 34 56 29 / 0 0 20 10 Albany 55 30 56 32 / 0 0 10 20 Valdosta 58 32 59 35 / 0 0 10 20 Cross City 62 33 64 39 / 0 0 10 30 Apalachicola 54 42 61 36 / 0 0 40 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for GMZ730-755-765-775. Gale Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1258424 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 155 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Aviation Discussion and evening update (Key Message 2) && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for the entire area tonight into Thursday morning. Lingering localized impacts from the winter storm this past Sunday will continue in some areas with little to no melting of the snow/ice. 2) A weak clipper and arctic cold front will move across the area tonight and early Thursday morning, potentially bringing a few snow showers to NE portions of the area overnight. 3) Increasing confidence that another strong storm system impacts the region this weekend. Strong winds and a potentially significant snowfall are possible, with the highest probability across southeastern portions of the area. && .DISCUSSION... As of 910 PM EST Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for the entire area tonight into Thursday morning. Lingering localized impacts from the winter storm this past Sunday will continue in some areas with little to no melting of the snow/ice. Another cold front drops through the region this evening into tonight, with another round of drier, Arctic air filtering into the area. In the wake of the front, temperatures will quickly plummet into the single digits to teens across the entire area, though again the NBM continues to be several degrees colder than the numerical guidance (with the NBM verifying too low the past 2 nights). Still, the combination of a stiff NW breeze and the very cold temperatures will allow for wind chills to drop to as low as -5 to 0 across northwestern portions of the area to 5 to 10 southeast. Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for the entire area beginning at 7 PM this evening and ending 10 AM Thursday morning. Wind chills will struggle to rise above the mid teens to mid 20s during the day Thursday and Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2...A weak clipper and arctic cold front will move across the area tonight and early Thursday morning, potentially bringing a few snow showers to NE portions of the area overnight. Latest obs showing a few scattered snow showers crossing SE MD over to the MD Eastern Shore as the weakening shortwave and its cold front crosses the area south this evening. Not expecting much more than some flurries, but have maintained a 20% PoP through midnight. A quick dusting of snow is possible. KEY MESSAGE 3...Increasing confidence that another strong storm system impacts the region this weekend. Strong winds and a potentially significant snowfall are possible, with the highest probability across southeastern portions of the area. There is still a decent amount of spread in regards to the models/ensembles with respect to the weekend system, particularly with QPF and location. The pattern remains similar to what has been advertised over the past several forecast cycles: high confidence that there will be a digging upper trough over the Great Lakes, with a strong high dropping southward over the Plains towards the western Gulf Coast Saturday. The trough is forecast to become a closed upper level low over the TN Valley Saturday morning, shifting SE to a position along the SC/GA coast Saturday night, though the exact placement of this remains somewhat uncertain and will play an important part in the the exact evolution of this system. Ensembles have a few different scenarios painted as to where this low develops, which will have a major impact on the sensible weather for the local area over the upcoming weekend. Pretty much everything depicts a significant deepening of the low along or off the mid- Atlantic coast into early Sunday, which could present a plethora of issues concerning impacts to the region including, but not limited to moderate to heavy snowfall, high winds, coastal flooding, and hazardous marine conditions. For the 12z suite of models and ensembles, the GFS/GEFS continues to be farther inland/closest to the coast (though it has shifted a touch further SE compared to earlier). The GEM/GEPS and ECMWF/EPS are still farther south/offshore, but have started to trend a bit back to the northwest and have really started to hone in on the southeast corner of the forecast area for the highest snow amounts. Probs for 3" and 6"+ remain highest across south/southeastern half of the forecast area, falling off further to the northwest. There is one caveat to these probabilities is that they are using a 10:1 SLR, but with the very cold airmass already in place (and no warm nose aloft), these will likely be much higher especially father inland, probably from 15:1 to 18:1. Any subtle differences in the track of this low will ultimately dictate where the highest snow will be observed. As of now, our forecast has increased PoPs to chance/likely overnight Friday into early Saturday along the initial inland sfc trough progged over the southern Appalachians. This could bring accumulating snow to mainly southern VA and NE NC as the coastal system is just starting to organize. Still, the highest PoPs will be later Saturday through early Sunday as the coastal system rapidly intensifies and makes its closest approach to the area. PoPs range from 70-90% along the coast with likely PoPs from most of the remainder of the CWA. Snow comes to an end late Sunday afternoon/evening. Reduced visibility will also be possible with any falling snow, especially along the coast as wind gusts increase to 40 to 50+ mph along the coast and 30 to 35 mph further inland Saturday evening into Sunday. There is at least the potential for blizzard conditions, especially along the immediate coast. As mentioned above, impacts will vary across the region, but the synoptic setup supports the potential for a high-impact winter storm. Additional messaging and potential headlines may be needed late tonight or Thursday. Please continue to follow the latest forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 705 PM EST Wednesday... VFR conditions in place across area terminals will persist through the 00z/29 TAF period. Mainly clear tonight aside from a few passing mid to high clouds associated with a weakening shortwave that will slide north of the region this evening. Winds veer around from W-SW to the NW later this evening into tonight behind this system and its associated cold front. Locations closer to the coast, including ORF and ECG, will see gusts of 18-22kt pick up after 05Z behind the cold frontal passage. Skies will clear out late tonight and will remain mostly clear through Thursday morning. Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions persist through Friday across the area. Continue to watch a developing coastal low, which is forecast to strengthen Saturday/Saturday night. This system could create another round of winter weather for the terminals Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Exact impacts and locations aren`t clear yet, but more widespread flight restrictions are possible this weekend. Strong winds are likely to develop at least for coastal terminals with this storm, with elevated winds also expected farther inland. && .MARINE... As of 155 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories in effect for all local waters this morning. - Storm Watches issued for the Ches. Bay, Lower James, all coastal waters, and the Currituck Sound starting Sat afternoon. Gale Watches issued for the upper tidal rivers. - A Freezing Spray Advisory has been issued for the Chesapeake Bay, coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light, and the upper rivers from tonight into Thu. Additional freezing spray is likely this weekend. Another push of CAA behind a cold front has triggered another surge of northerly winds, primarily over the Chesapeake Bay. Latest obs indicate winds of 15-25kt with a few of the higher sites showing gusts up to 30kt. Similar conditions are present over the rivers and Currituck Sound, but with gusts only 20-25kt. So far, winds are under-performing over the coastal waters with latest obs showing 10- 15kt. SCAs are in effect for all of the marine zones. Despite the under-performance, will leave the SCAs in place for now over the coastal waters in case there`s a sunrise surge as there often is in these scenarios. Otherwise, expecting gradually diminishing NW winds through the day and into tomorrow, though remaining breezy. Seas will be 3-4ft today, then 2-3ft tomorrow. Waves in the bay 2-3ft today and 1-2ft tomorrow. Attention then turns to the increasingly likely significant coastal storm over the weekend. There is high confidence in a strong surface low forming along and traveling up the coast early Saturday through Sunday. The models still have some variation in exact track of the low, but do consistently depict a very tight pressure gradient and drastic pressure changes over a short time period. Still sticking with blended guidance at this point since the high res models are still mostly out of range. this morning`s forecast package has not changed much since yesterday afternoon`s forecast, but am feeling more confident in it. NNE look to gradually increase through the day Saturday, reaching gale force gusts across most waters Saturday afternoon. Winds continue to increase Sat night, then peak Sunday morning. This peak would be 35-45kt over the bay, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters with gusts 50-60kt. The upper rivers would be a bit lower, but still well within Gale range. This forecast is supported by local wind probs, which have 80-85% for 48kt+ wind gusts for the southern coastal waters and 50-70% in the bay and northern coastal waters. Did go ahead and put up Storm Watches for the Bay, lower James, coastal waters, and Currituck Sound starting Saturday afternoon and going into Sunday night. Went with Gale Watches for the upper rivers starting Sat evening. Seas during this period will be 8-12ft. Waves in the bay climb to 7-8ft. Lastly, periods of light freezing spray are expected through the end of the week due to cold water/air temperatures and gusty winds. Moderate freezing spray over the weekend will likely require Freezing Spray Advisories. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MDZ021>025. NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ630. Freezing Spray Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634. Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for ANZ630-631-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ631- 632-634-656-658. Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for ANZ632>634-638-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ635>638. Freezing Spray Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ635>638. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652-654. Freezing Spray Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652-654. && $$ |
| #1258422 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 130 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Very cold temperatures and frost possible early this morning away from the coast. - Even colder air arrives Saturday night, with widespread hard freeze conditions and low wind chills each morning into early next week. - Extremely hazardous marine conditions and a high risk of strong rip currents at area beaches this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1133 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 Canadian high pressure will hold over west central and southwest Florida today with continued cold conditions. The day will begin with sub freezing temperatures across the nature coast and near to slightly above freezing temperatures central and south away from the coast. Widespread frost is likely across the nature coast with areas of frost central...and possibly as far south as interior Charlotte county...with patchy frost possible in northeast Lee county. Mostly sunny skies on Thursday but continued very cool with high temperatures generally in the 60s. The area of high pressure will begin to move away from the region tonight with temperatures beginning to moderate...but conditions will remain cold with lows in the mid to upper 30s north...lower to mid 40s central...and mid to upper 40s south. Areas of frost will develop across the nature coast during the late night/early morning hours. Temperatures will warm a bit on Friday as the airmass continues to modify with high temperatures in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Mostly sunny skies for a majority of the forecast area, but could see an increase in cloudiness across southwest Florida as an area of low pressure begins to develop off the southeast Florida coast along a strong baroclinic zone. This will be in response to a strong U/L trough/disturbance that is expected to dig sharply over the Tennessee Valley on Saturday. Simultaneously, strong Canadian high pressure will build down over the Central Plains with an associated leading cold front expected to push across the Florida peninsula on Saturday...with a chance of showers Friday night and Saturday across the forecast area. The area of low pressure east of the state will intensify and lift northeast with redevelopment off the Carolina coast late Saturday and Saturday night. A very tight pressure gradient will develop over the eastern Gulf and Florida peninsula Saturday and Saturday night in the wake of the front...a result of the significant pressure difference between the rapidly intensifying coastal storm off the Carolina coast and the strong Canadian high pressure system over the Central Plains. As the cold front moves across the forecast area on Saturday, temperatures will likely be falling (or at best holding steady) across the region during the afternoon hours. Northwest winds of 15 to 25 MPH will develop across west central and southwest Florida with higher gusts likely, especially near the coast. There will be a number of hazards associated with this sequence of events that run from low probability of occurrence to a very high probability of occurrence. Starting with the highest likelihood of occurrence: - Extremely hazardous marine conditions will develop over the weekend and a Gale Watch may be issued later today. A gale warning will likely be issued on Friday for the coastal waters for the period of Saturday and Saturday night, and potentially into Sunday morning. Also, can`t rule out a few gusts to storm force. - The arctic air will also usher in the coldest temperatures of the year. Freeze warnings will likely be needed for much of the forecast area both Saturday night and Sunday night. A hard freeze will be possible across the nature coast Saturday night and Sunday night with lows in the lower to mid 20s each night. Temperatures across the interior are expected to be in the mid to upper 20s both nights...with lower to mid 30s near the coast and across southwest Florida. Gusty northwest winds will create wind chills Saturday night in the teens across the nature coast...with single digits possible mainly across Levy and Citrus counties. Wind chills are expected to be in the teens to lower 20s across the interior. and generally in the 20s elsewhere. The wind is expected to taper off Sunday night, with wind chills generally about 3 to 5 degrees below the ambient temperature. - Temperatures will be running about 20 to 25 degrees below climatic normals Saturday night through Sunday night. Could see some record low temperatures set Saturday night/Sunday morning across the region...some low max temperature records set on Sunday...and some record low temperatures again Sunday night/Monday morning. - Along area beaches, very strong rip currents are expected to develop Saturday through Sunday. There is also a low to moderate probability of high surf. - The strong northwest winds may also create water levels along the coast from Citrus to northern Pinellas county to run 1 to 2 feet above astronomical normal tide levels Saturday and Saturday night. This is also in the low to moderate probability of occurrence. - The strong winds and CAA over the coastal waters will create a very unstable turbulent boundary layer. Residual low level moisture will likely allow an area of cold air strato-cu to develop over the eastern Gulf on Saturday and Saturday night. With these extreme conditions in place, it would be expected to see a few light showers or sprinkles to develop over the coastal waters...Gulf effect type light showers. The backside or northern extent of the cloud shield could see temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 30s Saturday evening and after midnight...which could allow the light rain showers to become light mixed snow/rain showers or snow showers/flurries. Trajectories would indicate that the clouds may advect locally onshore...with the best chance of seeing frozen precipitation from Citrus to Pinellas/Hillsborough counties. This is a low probability event...but not out of the realm of possibility. It`s common in scenarios like this that drizzle or very light rain gets reported as snow...when in fact surface temperatures don`t support that possibility. Clear skies expected Sunday and Sunday night. Temperatures on Sunday will struggle to climb into the mid to upper 40s across northern and central areas...around 50 to the lower 50s south. Another frigid night Sunday night as mentioned above with most areas away from the coast or extreme southwest Florida in the 20s. Again, record cold temperatures will be possible both Sunday and Sunday night. The airmass will begin to modify a bit on Monday, but still another cold day across the region with high temperatures from the mid 50s north to around 60 south. Subfreezing temperatures again likely Monday night/Tuesday morning across the nature coast, and around freezing to slightly above freezing across the interior...with upper 30s to lower 40s near the coast. The area of high pressure will begin to shift east of the forecast area during the middle of next week with temperatures continuing to modify...but remaining below climatic normals under mostly clear skies each day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 VFR conditions under mostly clear skies expected at all terminals for the remainder of the night and on Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1133 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 High pressure will hold over the waters through Friday with relatively benign conditions. As mentioned above, a cold front will push across the waters on Saturday with a strong Canadian area of high pressure building over the waters in the wake of the front. Gale conditions likely developing on Saturday and Saturday night, and can`t rule out a few gusts to storm force. Winds will come down a bit on Sunday, but advisory level winds and seas will likely persist. Winds will subside Sunday night, but it will likely take a longer period of time for the seas to subside. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1133 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 Very dry air will remain across the region today with critical relative humidity levels, generally in the 20 to 25 percent range this afternoon. The significant fire potential for west central and southwest Florida remains low and sustained winds are expected to remain below 15 MPH. For these reasons, an RFW will not be needed. Moisture will recover tomorrow and minimum relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 66 46 70 51 / 0 0 0 40 FMY 71 50 70 54 / 0 0 10 30 GIF 66 45 72 50 / 0 0 0 20 SRQ 67 46 70 52 / 0 0 0 40 BKV 66 34 70 42 / 0 0 0 30 SPG 66 51 70 55 / 0 0 0 40 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands- Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Pasco-Polk-Sumter. Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee- Inland Sarasota-Pinellas. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1258423 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1231 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1228 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 - Below normal temps expected through the remainder of the week. - Another significant Arctic outbreak, stronger/colder than last weekend, with impacts expected late Friday through early Monday morning. No precipitation is expected, but the air mass will be very cold, with the primary threats being dangerously low temperatures and wind chills. - Small Craft Advisory to possibly Gale force winds look to be on the horizon the entire weekend, starting as early as Friday night. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1228 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Cool and dry forecast continues for the next 48 hours and then the next Arctic blast will run into the region. Yesterday was a more pleasant day with highs in the 50s under sunny skies. High pressure was in control at the surface while a weak s/w moved southeast across the region. We will see slightly warmer temps today but Thursday highs could occur early with the next cold front quickly be moving in from the northwest and colder temperatures surging southeast that afternoon. Northwest flow aloft will remain in place as multiple embedded s/w look to slide across the region overnight and through the weekend as the L/W trough becomes re-established over the eastern half of the CONUS. The first s/w will be moving into the region Thursday night. This will have a sfc low associated with it and it will traverse from the lee of the Rockies to the Lower MS Valley and into the southeastern CONUS by early Friday. This will bring a cold front through the region early Friday with cold air hanging back until the afternoon. Prior to that the forecast will be relatively benign with light and variable winds today and then winds becoming northwesterly but remaining light through the morning. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1228 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 It will be another bitterly cold few days this weekend as our second shot of Arctic air pushes into the region in less than a week. This shot of cold air will be every bit as cold if not colder but the wind chills could actually be colder as the wind looks to be stronger and the breezy conditions could last longer this time. The cold air surges into the region Friday afternoon with strong cold air advection all night and into Saturday. H925 temps could drop all the way down to -12 to -14C by early Saturday. Dewpoints are expected to drop into the single digits and remain in the single digits to lower teens all weekend. Guidance continues to come in with lows in the 20s on Saturday and then mid teens to mid 20s on Sunday. The primary driver Friday night will be the CAA. With that we didn`t make any adjustments to the lows but Saturday night and Sunday night is a little more tricky and could provide some room to deviate from guidance. MOS is quite cold for Sunday morning but the NBM is very warm and is actually above the 95th percentile. However even as high pressure is building in winds will still be around 15 kts at h925 and h85. Outside of those winds the setup is quite favorable for a rather efficient radiational cooling night and with dewpoints expected in the single digits to mid teens lows could fall rather significantly. That said lows this past Tuesday did not quite fall as much as expected across a good chunk of the area so have decide to not make any significant shifts from the NBM for Sunday morning but did lower the drainage areas 1-2 degrees. So with lows that cold those two mornings the other question is wind chill values and given the wind is expected to be stronger this time especially Saturday morning those wind chills are expected to be brutal once again. Min Wind Chill values are expected to range from the mid single digits across southwestern MS to mid teens on the Southshore. With strong CAA still occurring in the morning there will not be much of a warm up during the day with highs likely only approaching 30 across southwest MS and struggling to even get into the upper 30s across the southern half of the CWA. With those temperatures and breezy winds all day the wind chill is not expected to even climb above the upper 20s. Once the sun starts to fall temperatures will quickly begin to drop and the entire CWA will be back below freezing between 01-02Z if not earlier. This sets the stage for another dangerously cold night with min wind chill values in the single digits to mid teens once again. Given the lack of the wind chill getting above the upper 20s we decided to once again issue an Extreme Cold Watch Friday night and run it through Sunday morning. High pressure remains over the area through the day Sunday and overnight and this should provide another favorable radiational cooling setup. The high will begin got slide east overnight but should still have enough of an impact leading to another cold night and the NBM may be warming things up just a touch too fast so we did use a blend of the NBM and NBM50. We will then begin to moderate with temps rebounding closer to normal by Monday afternoon. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 VFR conditions will persist through the forecast. Light winds will remain in place with the next impacts to terminals expected to be on Friday. /CAB && .MARINE... Issued at 1228 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 A surface low developing along the lee of the Rockies will move southeast across the Red River and into the Lower Ms Valley today. However it will weaken as this occurs leading to light onshore flow today and tonight before it moves into the southeastern CONUS overnight. Once it moves through offshore flow will redevelop through the day and increasing in strength. By afternoon SCY conditions will likely be in place and as deeper cold air drives into the region winds northerly and northwesterly winds will continue to increase and Gale conditions could develop. A Gale Watch has been issued for Friday night through Saturday. Winds will eventually begin to taper off as high pressure builds in early Sunday. /CAB/ && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for LAZ056>060-065. GM...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for MSZ068>071-077-083>088. GM...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1258421 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1210 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Light freeze until mid morning across northern parts of the area. There is a non-zero chance of a few isolated pockets of freezing fog toward sunrise. - Cold front pushes through this evening, but Arctic air really doesn`t filter in until Friday night. - Hard freezes for northern parts of the area Friday night & most of the region Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1208 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Look for another cool start to the day. Latest guidance isn`t quite as bullish with the freezing fog potential between now and mid morning near the Piney Woods/Brazos Valley (~30%), versus some of the earlier (50%+ runs), but the potential is there so some caution is advised for the early morning commute. Otherwise, we should see a nice warm up with readings making their way into the 60s with the sw llvl winds ahead of the next incoming front. This dry front will push thru the region this evening. Cold, Arctic high pressure will spill southward into SE TX Friday night through Saturday Night. Corresponding temps will take a dive back down into hard freeze territory for the Piney Woods area Friday night and daytime highs on Sat only between 36-45F for all the area. By Saturday night almost all inland locations will see a hard freeze with lows in the 17-22F range. Cannot rule out a Cold Weather Advisory or two. Ridging transitions to the east later Sunday, with a warming/modifying trend ensuing early next week. Next chance of rain comes into play Tuesday or Wednesday as moisture recovers with the onshore flow, we see a somewhat messy upper pattern, and another front getting closer to the region. 47 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 629 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 All sites at VFR at this time. Expecting SGR/GLS/LBX to remain VFR through the period. Light patchy fog will be possible at these sites; however, not expecting to drop below VFR levels. For IAH/HOU/CXO, anticipating fog to be a bit more impactful, particularly for IAH/HOU where fog may bring VSBYs down to IFR levels from around 11Z through 14Z. Further north, at CLL/UTS, air temperatures are expected to drop to below freezing. Enhanced radiational cooling with clear skies and light winds will serve as a catalyst for fog development in these areas, and with freezing temperatures, have included in the forecast the potential for freezing fog overnight into Thursday morning. Fog could become dense at times, which could create slick conditions on runways and light icing on exposed surfaces. Expect improvement to VFR by mid to late morning across all sites. Bailey && .MARINE... Issued at 1208 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Light winds and low seas will prevail through the day. The next cold front will push off the coast late this evening followed by moderate north winds and building seas. Small Craft Advisories may be required late tonight. With a reinforcing shot of cold, Arctic air anticipated Friday night, winds and seas should further increase into Saturday, then gradually decrease Sunday. On the bays, already low astronomical tides will produce some negative water levels this week, even more so Friday night into the weekend with stronger north winds in place. Low Water Advisories are already in place. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 65 32 50 24 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 67 37 53 30 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 64 42 54 34 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Low Water Advisory until midnight CST Saturday night for GMZ330- 335. && $$ |
| #1258420 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1256 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Long-Duration Cold Weather Outbreak Continues through Early Next Week. Light Freeze & Frost for Inland Locations on Tonight. Protect People, Pets, Plants, and Practice Safe Heating - Record Cold & Dangerously Low Wind Chills Saturday Night & Early Sunday Morning. Lows in the Teens Inland and Lower 20s at Coastal Locations. Windy Conditions Expected from Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Morning. Life-threatening Wind Chills (Single Digits) Possible Saturday Night & Early Sunday Morning - Gale Conditions this Weekend for the Atlantic Coastal Waters - Saturday and Saturday Evening Snowfall Potential Decreasing. Probabilities for Minor Impacts (Transportation) of 15-25% Across Southeast GA && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Weak high pressure and increasing westerly flow in the low levels will trend temperatures warmer today after the inland freeze this morning. Highs will warm back to the 60s across most of inland NE FL and the upper 50s across SE GA. Weak onshore flow will keep coastal temperatures a bit cooler with highs stay in the mid 50s this afternoon. There will be abundant sunshine to start the day but high level moisture with a strengthening upper level jet will build a thicker shield of cirrus through the afternoon and evening, especially across SE GA. These clouds may keep temperatures from cooling as quickly tonight limiting the extent of freezing temperatures to inland areas of SE GA where a new Freeze Watch has been issued. Elsewhere, freezing temperatures are less likely but lows tonight should cool to the mid/upper 30s across NE FL and support areas to widespread frost development by early Friday; a Frost Advisory will likely be needed for much of inland NE FL. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... An area of weak low pressure will develop over the central Gulf and move northeast across FL Friday. This low will develop further and strengthen as it moves to the northeast of the area Friday night into Saturday. As the low moves across FL, rain showers will be possible from late in the day Friday, through Saturday night. At this time, it looks like enough moisture will wrap around the back side of the departing low to bring at least a low chance of a light wintry mix Saturday into Saturday night, with greatest chance over SE GA. The low will continue to intensify as it moves away to the northeast Saturday night. With the flow from the southwest ahead of low Friday, highs will rise to near seasonal levels. Friday night temperatures will be near a little below average. Once the low moves away to the northeast, colder air will wrap into region behind it. Highs on Saturday will be well below normal, with readings falling into the 17 to 22 range Saturday night. So, a hard freeze is expected all across forecast area including the beach communities. With winds elevated behind the low, wind chills Saturday night will drop into the single digits, placing Saturday night solidly in the Extreme Cold Warning range. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The low will continue to pull away to the northeast Sunday, as high pressure builds from the northwest. The high will build overhead Monday and Tuesday. The high will weaken and move off to the east Wednesday. This will be a dry period. Hazards this period will be focused on the cold airmass. Nightly freezes are expected. Temperatures will be below average for most of this period, with a recovery to near average for Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... SKC skies and light to calm conditions with wind speeds at or below 5 knots through the predawn hours. High clouds will fill the skies this afternoon but VFR conditions will remain. Winds will shift northerly this morning and then northeasterly to easterly behind a weak cold front brushing past the area. && .MARINE... Elevated winds continue through the morning as a weak cold front brushes across the waters. Winds will settle this afternoon as high pressure becomes situated over the area through Friday night before a powerful arctic front plunges across the waters Saturday. This very strong front will bring strong winds and gusts across the waters Saturday which will strengthen to gale-force Saturday night as a low pressure organizes and deepens quickly off the coastal Carolinas. There will be a low chance of a mix of rain and snow showers across the waters Saturday night as moisture wraps around the low and this may lead to occasional periods of low visibility. High pressure will build from the west and over the waters during the early and middle part of next week. Rip Currents: Low risk for SE GA beaches through Friday and low-end Moderate risk at NE FL beaches as surf continues to lower. NE FL beaches will be at a Low Risk by Friday as surf heights diminish. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy low dispersions inland Today - Patchy high dispersions NE FL Friday - Widespread high dispersions This Weekend High pressure ridging will prevail through Tonight. An area of low pressure will gather over the central Gulf Friday, then move across FL Friday night. The low will then strengthen and move away to the northeast over the weekend. High pressure will become the prevailing weather feature early next week. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected this morning or Tonight. A dangerously cold airmass will settle in over the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Daily records challenged by the arctic cold air outbreak are below: Record Low Maximum Temperatures: Saturday, January 31: JAX 40/1909 CRG 43/1977 GNV 47/1909 AMG 44/1948 Sunday, February 1: JAX 42/1900 CRG 44/1980 GNV 41/1909 AMG 42/1980 Record Low Temperatures: Sunday, February 1: JAX 24/1977 CRG 29/1977 GNV 25/1977 AMG 22/1977 Monday, February 2: JAX 23/1979 CRG 27/1980 GNV 25/1980 AMG 19/1951 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 55 30 60 33 / 0 0 10 20 SSI 54 42 59 41 / 0 0 0 20 JAX 59 37 65 39 / 0 0 0 20 SGJ 57 43 66 44 / 0 0 0 20 GNV 63 36 67 40 / 0 0 0 20 OCF 63 37 69 42 / 0 0 0 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024- 030-031-035-120-136-220-236-322-422-425-522. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ038-124-132- 137-140-225-232-237-240-340-533-633. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ125-138-233- 325-333-433. GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149- 151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ154-166. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151-152-162-163-250-264-350-364. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1258419 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:03 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1251 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence continues to increase in the potential for accumulating snowfall across portions of the region this weekend. The aviation section was updated for the 06Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Confidence continues to increase in an accumulating snowfall event across a portion of the SC Lowcountry and SE Georgia Saturday morning through Saturday night. - 2) Unseasonably cold weather will continue through early next week with the coldest conditions expected Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Confidence continues to increase in an accumulating snowfall event across a portion of the SC Lowcountry and SE Georgia Saturday morning through Saturday night. A sharp trough is forecast to dig southward out of the Great Lakes on Friday, dropping into the southeastern states Saturday. Simultaneously a surface low is forecast to develop off the southeastern coast before trekking to the northeast. Precipitation along the backside of the low is forecast to impact the region Saturday into early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings indicate dry conditions will dominate prior to daybreak Saturday and into the first few hours of Saturday morning. Conditions will then saturate as precipitation moves into the region. Unique to the SC Lowcountry and SE Georgia is the fact that this event will be rain/snow, with no meaningful probabilities of freezing rain/sleet. Forecast soundings show that the entire column of air will be below freezing, leading to an all snow forecast once surface temperatures drop below freezing. Given the very cold temperatures, the snow ratio could approach 20 to 1, also unique for the area. This snow ratio is quite high and would result in a "dry" snowfall. Given these details, Winter Storm Warning criteria (2 inches) is possible across northern and inland areas of the SC Lowcountry, with Winter Weather Advisory criteria (1-2 inches) possible across the rest of the region, except for counties south of I-16 in Georgia. KEY MESSAGE 2: Unseasonably cold weather will continue through early next week with the coldest conditions expected Saturday night. A reinforcing Arctic high will slide into the region Friday night and then persist through Monday before shifting off the Southeast coast. Cold advection during the day Saturday will prevent high temps from climbing out of the mid 30s over inland SC/GA. Closer to the coast where there will be fewer hours of cold advection, highs should reach the low to mid 40s. Saturday evening, temperatures will rapidly plummet, with most areas in the 20s by 9pm. Overnight lows in the mid to upper teens and 10-15 mph winds will produce wind chills in the single digits for most of the night. We will likely need an Extreme Cold Warning for the entire area Saturday night into Sunday morning. Sunday night lows will be in the upper teens, but wind speeds will be notably weaker, so wind chills will mainly be 10-15 degrees. A Cold Weather Advisory is likely for Sunday night. Lake Moultrie winds: Winds out of the northwest sustained in the 20 to 25 knot range with gusts of 25 to 30 knots may require a Lake Wind Advisory Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV through the 06Z TAF period. Extended Aviation Outlook: Predominantly VFR through the extended period, with increasing potential for impacts Saturday associated with developing low pressure offshore of the Southeastern coast. && .MARINE... A potent surface low will develop off the SC coast on Saturday, then shift northeast on Sunday. A period of Gale force winds is expected during this period in all zones except Charleston Harbor where solid Small Craft Advisory conditions are anticipated. It`s a bit too early to issue a Gale Watch, but there is high confidence that we`ll eventually need one. && .CLIMATE... Record Low Temperatures: January 31: KCHS: 15/1966 KCXM: 19/1966 KSAV: 16/1966 February 1: KCHS: 21/1977 KCXM: 23/1900 KSAV: 23/1977 February 2: KCHS: 19/1980 KCXM: 17/1917 KSAV: 18/1917 Record Low Maximum Temperatures: January 31: KCHS: 36/1948 KCXM: 34/1936 KSAV: 37/1909 February 1: KCHS: 38/1980 KCXM: 36/1900 KSAV: 38/1900 February 2: KCHS: 38/1980 KCXM: 38/1898 KSAV: 38/1951 Record Snowfall: January 31: KCHS: 0.6/1977 KSAV: 1.3/1977 February 1: KCHS: no record established KSAV: no record established && .EQUIPMENT... The KCLX radar remains out of service. More parts are on order. We hope to have the radar restored by Saturday. Users should use adjacent WSR-88D sites, including KCAE, KLTX, KJAX, KVAX and KJGX. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1258418 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:45 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1137 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1134 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 - A pair of cold fronts move across the area Friday and Saturday, ushering in an Arctic airmass. Bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills are expected late Friday night into Sunday. - Hazardous marine conditions are expected to impact our local marine zones Friday night through through Sunday morning. Winds to gale force are likely, especially over the Gulf. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1134 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Now through Wednesday... For the rest of the week through the weekend, a strong cold front moves across the forecast area Friday, with a reinforcing front moving across the forecast area Saturday in response to two passing upper level shortwaves. Winds behind the first front will remain breezy Friday, with low temperatures in the upper teens north of Highway 84 to upper 20s near the coast and Wind Chills dropping into the single digits north of Highway 84 and teens south Friday night. But strong winds (a Wind Advisory will likely be needed) Saturday accompany the second front, ushering in even colder air and limiting high temperatures to the 30s Saturday and daytime wind chills in the teens to low 20s over most of the forecast area. Temperatures Saturday night drop even lower the previous night, bottoming out into teens over areas inland from the coast, around 20 along the coast. Wind Chills dropping into the single digits forecast area wide are expected Saturday night. An Extreme Cold Watch is in effect from late Friday evening into Sunday morning. Any precipitation from these passing shortwaves are expected to remain well offshore. Some recovery is expected Sunday as the cold airmass that moves over the western half of the Southeast begins to shift east as an upper ridge that has built north over the western Conus shifts east. In the coming week, surface high pressure moves over the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday, shifting onshore flow back to onshore by Tuesday. A modest moisture return occurs by mid week before another front approaches the Southeast. Deterministic guidance diverges into mid week with this passage, but are in agreement that temperatures rise back to near seasonal norms by the end of the forecast. Offshore flow through most of the forecast will limit any swell, keeping the Rip Risk low through the weekend into the coming week. /16 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Northerly winds 5 knots or less overnight shift to southerly 5 to 10 knots Thursday afternoon. /16 && .MARINE... Issued at 1134 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Weak onshore flow shifts to moderate to strong Friday as a cold front passes. A reinforcing front passes Saturday, keeping offshore flow strong to very strong into Sunday. A Gale Watch is in effect for open Gulf waters beginning late Friday night, with a Small Craft Advisory likely to be issued for protected waters Thursday. Surface high pressure approaches area waters late Sunday into the coming week, easing winds over area waters into Monday, then shifting them to onshore in the coming week. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 28 57 38 59 / 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 33 55 43 61 / 0 0 10 10 Destin 36 56 46 61 / 0 0 10 20 Evergreen 25 56 33 57 / 0 0 0 20 Waynesboro 25 55 32 51 / 0 0 0 10 Camden 25 53 31 50 / 0 0 0 20 Crestview 25 58 35 62 / 0 0 10 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for ALZ051>060-261>266. FL...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for FLZ201>205. MS...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for GMZ650- 655-670-675. && $$ |
| #1258417 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:39 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1134 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1131 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 - Strong cold front moves through tonight - Freezing temperatures return this weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Warm conditions will hang around for the day with highs climbing into the lower 70s across the region. A cold front will push through this evening bringing frigid cold weather back to the area. Highs beginning this weekend will only top out in the 40s and 50s as the ridge settles in overhead. Lows will drop into the 20s and 30s throughout the area beginning Friday night through Saturday night. Wind chill values will be in the teens and 20s likely warranting some cold weather products to be issued. This will be closely monitored as we near this weekend. Please take precautions if you need to spend extended periods outside. The chances for precipitation along and ahead of the front have continued to trend low with rain chances less the 10%. Will have to monitor another disturbance coming up around midweek next week which should bring us our next shot at some rain. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with light variable winds and FEW-SCT upper-level clouds. && .MARINE... Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 A light to gentle flow is expected to continue through the day transitioning to strong breeze with gusts to gale due to the arrival of our next front. This front will promote low to medium (20-50%) rain chances with the frontal passage and strong winds in its wake. Conditions will persist through Saturday before transitioning to moderate breeze by Saturday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Minimum relative humidity values will hover below critical values Friday and linger through Sunday in the wake of our next cold front Thursday night. Although RH values will be low most days, light winds, cool temperatures and low to moderate Energy Release Component values will limit the fire weather potential. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 71 40 57 35 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 70 34 56 29 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 71 45 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 73 40 59 32 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 66 39 56 35 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 71 39 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 73 40 59 33 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 67 43 57 39 / 0 10 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1258416 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:39 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1234 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 236 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 - Freeze Warning, Frost Advisory, and a Cold Weather Advisory remain in effect for much of east central Florida tonight into Thursday morning - Significantly colder air arrives Saturday and Saturday night with lows in the 20s and wind chills in the teens to single digits Sunday morning; very cold air lasting into early next week - Strong, gusty winds are forecast Saturday into Sunday with gusts reaching 35 to 45 mph at times, particularly along the coast Saturday night && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 Now-Friday...A mostly clear sky this afternoon has offered limited surface heating with temperatures still in the mid 50s to low 60s. A few more clouds are building across Martin and Saint Lucie counties, where a small plume of 0.7" PW exists. Hi-res model soundings remain very dry, despite the thin layer of clouds, so any light shower that does form is likely to stay offshore or at most brush the coast. Thus, we do carry a 15-20% chance of light rain across southeastern Martin County through sunset. Drier air works south overnight with winds remaining light, generally 10 mph or less. Under a mostly clear sky, temperatures will drop quickly into the 30s after midnight. A Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory begins at midnight and continues through 9 AM Thursday. Probabilistic guidance remains largely unchanged, indicating the highest chance for sub-freezing temperatures (40-60%) across rural Volusia, Lake, south-central Osceola, and northern Okeechobee counties. Locations in and around the Orlando metro will likely stay a couple degrees warmer with outlying portions of Seminole, Orange, and northern Osceola counties approaching the freezing mark. While winds will be light, wind chill values are still forecast to reach the mid to upper 20s over much of east central Florida. As a result, a Cold Weather Advisory is in place, beginning at 2 AM Thursday, excluding coastal Brevard County, the immediate Treasure Coast, and all of Martin County. For the latest hazards at your location, please visit weather.gov/mlb. Take steps to protect sensitive plants from the cold. High pressure maintains a pattern of dry weather through late week as temperatures trend slightly warmer each day, reaching the upper 60s to low 70s Friday afternoon. Mostly clear conditions are in the works Thursday, though a few more clouds work across the south on Friday as moisture generally increases. Overnight lows settle into the 40s and 50s (upper 30s across northern Lake/inland Volusia Friday morning). This Weekend-Tuesday (modified)...Deepening low pressure transitioning into an eventual nor`easter is still outlined by all available model guidance into Saturday. This low will form very close to Florida before lifting into the Atlantic. As it passes by early Saturday, we still carry 30-50% chances for rain showers. Rainfall tallies still look on the light side. By late morning and into the afternoon, a cold front passes through the area. The initial impact will be a burst of strong west-northwest winds. Peak wind gusts from 35-45 mph are on the table, and the latest NBME probabilities show at least a 20% chance of wind gusts 40+ mph inland (greater than 50% along the coast) Saturday afternoon and evening as the deepening low tightens the surface pressure gradient. Keep these winds in mind when considering when and how to protect any tender vegetation before the cold air arrives! Winds veer slightly more out of the northwest on Saturday night, pushing Arctic air down the peninsula. Daily record lows are anticipated on Sunday morning. Temperatures will only slowly moderate, with additional freezes anticipated on Monday and Tuesday morning. Extreme cold risks have remained consistent over the last several updates: SUNDAY AM: There is a 60-90% chance of a hard freeze (<= 27 deg F) on Sunday morning for all areas except Martin County (20-40%). Much of east central Florida currently has a 70-90% chance of wind chills in the teens. MONDAY AM: The risk for a hard freeze (<= 27 deg F) is 50-80% for many locations, except the immediate Space and Treasure Coasts where the probabilities are somewhat lower (30-60%). Bitterly cold wind chills are expected to persist, though with lighter winds (upper teens-mid 20s). A hard freeze is less likely Tuesday morning, though sub-freezing temperatures remain forecast for a large portion of the area. For additional cold weather support, including probabilities and durations of specific temperatures for your location, visit weather.gov/mlb/coldsupport. With a widespread freeze and extreme cold event likely, residents, officials, and agricultural operations should be preparing for cold weather impacts. Those with inadequate shelter or heat will be most affected. Exposed pipes may freeze, and some non-native plants and trees will succumb to the elements if not properly protected. The risk to non-cold-hardy plants and palms is much higher due to the wind-driven cold that is expected. High temperatures on Sunday should fail to reach 50 degrees near and north of I-4, perhaps reaching the low 50s along the Treasure Coast. By Tuesday, most spots should return to the 60s. && .MARINE... Issued at 236 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 High pressure remains overhead through late week, though north- northwest winds briefly increase overnight into Thursday morning over the Gulf Stream and portions of the nearshore waters. Seas build up to 6 ft as result. Small craft will need to exercise caution as this brief wind and wave height increase occurs, through midday Thursday. All eyes are on this weekend as a deepening low pressure system forms offshore of the northeast FL coast, strengthening west- northwest winds to gale force by Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. The latest marine wind guidance came in a bit high over the waters, especially with wind gusts, so leaned closer to the previous forecast, maybe increasing speeds by a few knots. This level of wind and seas building up to 15 ft offshore Sunday will create dangerous marine conditions through the latter half of the weekend and into early next week. Until Saturday, seas remain 2-4 ft (up to 5 ft in the Gulf Stream) Thursday afternoon and Friday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1232 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 VFR conditions prevail at all ECFL terminals through the TAF period. Northwesterly winds 5-10 kts tonight veer in the morning, becoming northeasterly by the early afternoon, then becoming light Thursday evening and night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 236 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 Low relative humidity values forecast Thursday afternoon will result in fire-sensitive conditions for one more day this work week. Moisture gradually returns to the area Friday into Saturday ahead of a very strong cold front. A northeast breeze around 10 mph (up to 15 mph) at the coast) is anticipated Thursday afternoon, followed by lighter winds on Friday. Rain chances increase Friday night into early Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 61 45 69 46 / 0 0 0 20 MCO 65 46 71 50 / 0 0 0 20 MLB 65 49 71 47 / 0 0 10 10 VRB 67 49 71 47 / 0 0 20 10 LEE 63 43 70 46 / 0 0 0 30 SFB 64 44 70 47 / 0 0 0 20 ORL 64 46 70 50 / 0 0 0 20 FPR 68 48 71 47 / 0 0 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-044>046- 053-058-144. Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-547-647. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ141-247-254- 547. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1258415 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:18 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1205 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 - Below average temperatures continue across South Florida. Cold apparent temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s are forecast for Glades/Hendry/Inland Collier early this morning, with Cold Weather Advisories in effect. - Freezing temperatures as low as 31 degrees are possible early this morning for Glades County where a Freeze Warning is in effect. - Low relative humidities each afternoon this week across interior South Florida and Southwest Florida could result in periods of enhanced fire behavior. - A potentially record breaking cold snap is possible late weekend into early next week as another strong cold front passes through the area. Near freezing to sub-freezing low temperatures are possible for a large area of South Florida early Sunday, Monday and Tuesday morning. Lows in the 30s could reach as far South as Miami Dade County with wind chills in the 20s across all of South Florida. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 After a somewhat dreary and cloudy Wednesday, Thursday and Friday should bring more sunshine across all of South Florida. While early morning temperatures are expected to be quite cold again, the afternoon hours should be quite pleasant with most of South Florida warming up into the 70s. Overnight temperatures tonight into Friday will remain warmer than the previous few days as well. Expect upper 50s to low 60s along the east coast with mid 40s to lower 50s for interior and Southwest Florida. On Friday, a weak area of low pressure will cross the Florida peninsula which could bring a few more clouds and scattered showers during the afternoon hours. Winds will begin to shift from the northeast to the northwest through the day as the next hotly anticipated cold front approaches from the north. Aside from a few showers during the afternoon, Friday should be fairly pleasant as well with highs in the lower 70s. Lows overnight into Saturday will reach the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 The aforementioned area of low pressure enters the western Atlantic on Saturday and will begin to rapidly deepen as it pushes towards the northeast. This system will send a strong cold front across South Florida on Saturday afternoon which will act to reinforce the cooler air mass across the area. The coolest and driest air mass of the season thus far arrives early Sunday morning with potentially widespread freezing or near freezing low temperatures across South Florida. Northwest flow prevails behind the strong front, which will advect a dry arctic continental air mass down the Florida peninsula all day on Sunday. Sunday night into Monday morning could be even colder as cold air advection is maximized, and maritime modification to the air mass is minimized, or nearly non-existent. Low temperatures could be so cold early Sunday and early Monday that Extreme Cold Warnings may be needed around Lake Okeechobee with potential Freeze Warnings extending much further south than the earlier cold snaps this season. Afternoon high temperatures on Sunday and Monday may not reach much higher than the mid 50s. Trends have been closely monitored and will continue to be monitored through the week although confidence is slowly increasing that this could be the coldest Attic snap across South Florida since December 2010. Temperatures begin to rebound on Tuesday morning but will still dip into the lower 30s to lower 40s across all of South Florida although Tuesday afternoon we may finally be able to reach the 60s during the afternoon. On Wednesday afternoon, high temperatures (finally) are able to climb back into the 70s. Visit our website for graphical temperature forecasts (hover over `Forecast` and then click `Cold Weather` OR `Other Probabilistic Forecast Graphics`). Describing temperatures across every part of the forecast area through text is a bit clunky and images make the message much clearer. While the anomalous temperature forecast continues to steal the show, surface winds behind this cold front will be quite significant as well. Winds will increase out of the northwest on Saturday afternoon between 15-25 mph over land with potential gusts to around 40 mph through Sunday morning. A Wind Advisory is not out of the question for this time period, and this potential will continue to be monitored. Regardless, it would be wise to secure any light outdoor obejects that may become projectiles prior to this weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. NW winds around 10 kts overnight into Thursday morning will gradually shift and become NE after 16z Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 Conditions across local waters continue to improve today and Friday before they will once again rapidly deteriorate on Saturday. NNE flow between 15-20 kts will prevail today, weakening to 10-15 kts on Friday. Friday night into early Saturday, winds will veer to a more westerly direction across all local waters increasing to 30-40 kts by late Saturday night. Gusts during this time period could reach 40-50 kts. Gale watches/warnings will be explored over the coming forecast cycles. Wave heights will peak with the winds late Saturday night into early sunday warning with heights of 10-12 feet across both Gulf and Atlantic waters. Winds and waves will slowly subside through the afternoon and evening on Sunday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 A moderate risk of rip currents continues at all Atlantic beaches through the end of the week. Rip current probabilities are poised to increase behind a cold front passage late this weekend into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 51 71 60 71 / 30 0 10 30 West Kendall 46 72 54 73 / 20 0 10 30 Opa-Locka 49 72 58 73 / 30 0 10 30 Homestead 51 72 59 73 / 30 0 10 40 Fort Lauderdale 50 70 60 71 / 30 0 10 30 N Ft Lauderdale 50 70 59 71 / 30 0 10 30 Pembroke Pines 48 72 57 73 / 30 0 10 30 West Palm Beach 48 70 57 71 / 20 0 0 20 Boca Raton 48 71 58 72 / 30 0 10 30 Naples 41 70 52 71 / 0 0 0 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Thursday for FLZ063-066-070. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST Thursday for FLZ063. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
