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| #1262612 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 AM 16.Mar.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1256 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1243 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Key Messages: * Strong cold front (modified Arctic airmass) arrives tonight; temperatures by Monday morning will have plummeted 40-50F degrees from Sunday afternoon`s highs. * Strong to potentially damaging winds develop tonight into Monday; northerly winds 25-35 mph are expected to gust as high as 45-55 mph with local gusts as high as 55-60 mph. * A Red Flag Warning (RFW) for a critical fire weather risk is in effect for all of Deep South Texas, excluding the island till 7 PM CDT Monday; Fire Danger ranges between Very High and Extreme. * Hazardous marine/coastal conditions likely though Monday; A Gale Warning is in effect for the Laguna Madre and Gulf Waters till 7 PM CDT Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 After today`s heat spike, which resulted in McAllen tying it`s record high of 103F set back in 2008, courtesy of strong compressional heating from a nearby dryline and strong southerly winds, a significant change to the weather pattern is just about underway for all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Driven by an anomalously strong and emerging 591-591 dam Sonoran heat ridge over the Southwestern U.S. and a mature (neutrally- tilted) powerhouse mid-latitude cyclone over the Midwest/Great Lakes Region, that`s producing combination of blizzard conditions in it`s cold sector and severe weather in it`s warm sector, a very strong cold front (modified Arctic front) will sweep through all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley tonight. Accompanying this cold front will be a 40-50F degree drop off in temperatures from this afternoon to Monday morning along with strong to damaging northerly winds 25-35 mph gusting as high as 45-55 mph late tonight into Monday. There could be an isolated case where wind gusts reach 55-60 mph. Multiple hazards, including fire weather and coastal/marine are in effect through the day on Monday in response to the Arctic front and impending weather changes. Latest radar scans and sfc analysis shows the cold front quickly advancing southward over Corpus Christi`s county warning area (CWA) and knocking on the doors of the Northern Ranchlands. Expect for this cold front to push through Deep South Texas from north to south between midnight and 4am. Along and behind the cold fropa, an enhanced pressure and thermal (isollabaric) gradient will result in strong to at times damaging winds. North-northeast winds 25-35 mph are expected to gusts as high as 45-55 mph with isolated gusts up to 60 mph. Isolated power outages are possible, so be prepared. A WIND ADVISORY remains in effect for all of Deep South Texas till 8 AM CDT and for Brooks, Kenedy, Hidalgo, Willacy, and Cameron counties till 1 PM CDT Monday. Through tonight, following the cold fropa, temperatures will plummet as these winds will usher in a modified Arctic airmass into the region. By Monday morning, wake up temperatures will be in the upper 40s across parts of the Northern Ranchlands to the mid 50s along the Rio Grande Valley. Amid additional cool air advection (CAA) and the modified Arctic airmass still building into the region, Monday will feature the coolest day of the week with daytime highs struggling to make it out of the 60s, some 30-40F degrees cooler than the highs on Sunday, and ~15F degrees cooler than normal. With the cool airmass fully locked in over the region on top or sufficient radiational cooling on clearing skies, a cold night looms Monday night with overnight lows mainly in the 40s with 50s found along/near the coast. Low relative humidity (RH) values and windy conditions on top of an ongoing drought will result in critical fire weather risk with the potential for fuels becoming combustible upon fire ignition on Monday across Deep South Texas. A Red Flag Warning (RFW) remains in effect for all of Deep South Texas, excluding the island from 10 PM CDT tonight to 7 PM Monday (see FIRE WEATHER SECTION for more details). These strong winds will also create hazardous marine and coastal conditions tonight through Monday (SEE MARINE SECTION for more details). Beyond Monday night, a warming trend is expected to take place through the remainder of the forecast period. By Thursday, temperatures are expected to return to unseasonable warm levels (80s/90s) across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 A strong cold front will arrive in the next couple of hours. The main concern for terminals will be the strong northerly winds that develop in the wake of the front. FROPA is expected around 0630Z at HRL/MFE and 0730Z at BRO. Winds will shift to the north behind the front and become strong with wind speeds between 15-25 kts with gusts 35-40 knots. A few gusts as high as 50 kts will be possible later this morning into the afternoon. Winds are expected to decrease and become moderate between 10 to 15 knots later this evening. Brief MVFR conditions will be possible ahead and along the frontal boundary. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 A Gale Warning is in effect for the Laguna Madre and Gulf Waters till 7 PM CDT Monday. North-northeast winds 25-35 knots gusting up to 40 knots or so is expected. This will drive up high seas with wave heights ranging between 13-18 feet. Monday night through Tuesday, marine conditions (seas) will improve in response to the return of lighter winds. By Wednesday, favorable marine conditions are expected to return with low to moderate winds and seas. Favorable marine conditions will prevail through the remainder of the forecast period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 A Red Flag Warning (RFW) is in effect for all of Deep South Texas, excluding the island till 7 PM CDT Monday. The combination of low relative humidity (RH) values, windy conditions, and an ongoing drought ranging from D2 Severe to D4 Exceptional, will result in critical fire weather risk on Monday. Any fires that ignite under these conditions will have the potential to become combustible and rather aggressive. We continue to urged everyone to not burn on Monday and continue to exercise safe fire weather conditions. The Texas A&M Forest Service has outlooked the region under a Very High to Extreme Fire Danger for Monday. Energy Release Component (ERC) values will be high across the region on Monday ranging between 75- 100%. Finally, fuels will be dry to critically dry on Monday. Additional fire weather concerns are possible through next weekend due to a continuation of at times low relative humidity levels and breezy conditions, in addition to an ongoing drought. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 66 53 71 57 / 10 10 10 0 HARLINGEN 68 48 73 52 / 10 10 10 0 MCALLEN 71 50 76 55 / 0 10 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 70 48 75 51 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 64 58 66 62 / 10 10 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 66 53 70 57 / 10 10 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ248>255-351- 353>355. Wind Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for TXZ248-249-252. Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ250-251- 253>255-351-353>355-451-454-455. High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through this evening for TXZ451-454-455. High Surf Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ130-132-135-150- 155-170-175. && $$ |
| #1262611 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 AM 16.Mar.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 143 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 130 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 - Another round of potentially significant severe weather is becoming increasingly likely late Sunday night into Monday. All hazards are possible. - Hazardous marine and beach conditions expected on Monday in the wake of a strong cold front. A Gale Warning is in effect for Gulf Waters west of Apalachicola. - A late season freeze remains on the table for Monday and Tuesday nights with freezing to sub-freezing wind chills. A Freeze Warning has been issued for much of the area Monday night/Tuesday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Monday) Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 A potentially significant severe weather event is still forecast late tonight through Monday morning along and ahead of a strong cold front. This system looks very favorable for severe weather, with strong mid and upper-level dynamics, high low level wind shear, and unseasonably high instability (CAPE), particularly for a mostly nighttime event. All modes of severe weather will be possible including damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes. A few tornadoes could be strong. There is still some uncertainty on the storm mode for this event. The main severe threat is forecast to be in a squall line or broken line of showers and storms with embedded supercells along or just ahead of the front. Some discrete supercell development will also be possible out ahead of this main swath, but confidence is a bit lower in these developing. If they do, both right and left-moving supercells will be possible thanks to mostly straight hodographs. Right-movers would favor tornadoes, and left-movers would pose more of a large hail threat. SPC has our SE AL counties, inland FL Panhandle, and a sliver of SW GA next to AL in an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather. The rest of our area is in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5). Since the storms are expected to still be pushing across our area at 12z, the event spans both the Day 1 and 2 SPC outlooks. Rest assured, however, that this is just one event. A sharp, strong cold front is forecast to push through the area in the wake of the storms with a much colder and drier air mass behind it. Temperatures will actually fall throughout the day Monday for most of our area with windy NW winds making it feel even cooler. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Freezing conditions are forecast to return to the area once again Monday night and again Tuesday night in the wake of the strong cold front. Strong cold air advection and windy NW winds will drive low temperatures Monday night into the upper 20s to mid 30s, with wind chills well into the 20s. A Freeze Warning has been issued for SE AL, the inland FL Panhandle, portions of the western Big Bend, and SW GA for Monday night. Tuesday night might be actually be colder with high pressure overhead creating a favorable setup for radiational cooling, and another freeze warning may be required. However, light winds Tuesday night will keep wind chills in the mid 20s to low 30s despite similar to slightly colder temperatures. These freezing temperatures will be especially impactful given the growing season is already underway. A gradual warming and moistening trend is expected Wednesday onward, with temperatures returning to the 80s again by the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 130 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 MVFR to IFR cigs are expected to impact all area terminals through the morning as a cold front approaches from the west. Conditions will quickly deteriorate from west to east ahead of and along the cold front with IFR to LIFR conditions likely, especially within heavy downpours and/or thunderstorms. Over the next couple hours DHN/ECP will start to see impacts from the cold front with TLH/ABY being next around daybreak, with VLD being last around late morning to early afternoon. Behind the front, cigs will lift during the afternoon into the evening with MVFR to VFR conditions expected by sunset. Winds will be gusty ahead of and behind the front with gusts around 20 to 30 knots expected, isolated higher gusts are possible. Winds will gradually come down after sunset this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Increasing winds and waves are expected over the next day or so as a strong cold front pushes across the waters late tonight through Monday. Breezy S to SW winds are expected ahead of the front tonight before turning sharply NW and increasing in the wake of the front Monday morning. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect area-wide tonight to account for the increasing onshore flow, and a Gale Warning is in effect for Gulf waters west of Apalachicola starting Monday morning for winds in the wake of the front. Elevated winds and seas are expected through at least Monday night before gradually subsiding. Strong thunderstorms are also expected ahead of and along the front tonight into early Monday morning, with damaging winds, hail, and waterspouts all possible. A return to more tranquil boating conditions is expected midweek into the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Strong southerly to southwesterly winds are expected through tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of this front late tonight through Monday morning with damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes all possible. Around 0.5 inch of rainfall is expected across the area with this system, but isolated spots of higher amounts are possible. Much colder and drier conditions are forecast to move into the area in the wake of the front, with temps actually falling through much of the day on Monday. Dry and cold conditions persist into Tuesday and Wednesday with critically dry humidity possible. Breezy transport winds in the wake of the front will also lead to excellent dispersions both Monday and Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 253 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 The only notable rain over the next several days is on Monday, but forecast amounts are mostly about a half inch to three- quarters of an inch (isolated higher) given the expected frontal system`s progressive nature. Values are subject to change. While beneficial, these numbers are not nearly high enough to make much of a dent in our ongoing severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought. The CPC Day 8-14 Precipitation Outlook as of March 13th, paints a pessimistic picture with widespread 40-50% probabilities of (leaning) below-normal precipitation - valid March 22nd-28th. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 73 36 55 34 / 80 0 0 0 Panama City 72 37 56 37 / 80 0 0 0 Dothan 65 31 52 31 / 70 0 0 0 Albany 70 31 53 31 / 80 0 0 0 Valdosta 75 34 54 32 / 90 10 0 0 Cross City 77 35 60 33 / 90 10 0 0 Apalachicola 72 38 56 40 / 90 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ to 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ Tuesday for FLZ007>013-016-326. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for GAZ120>131- 142>148-155>158. AL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ALZ065>069. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Tuesday for GMZ730-735-755-765-775. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ751-752- 770-772. Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1262610 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 AM 16.Mar.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1244 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1224 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 - Line of strong to severe thunderstorms just ahead of a cold front will exit the area prior to sunrise. This line of storms could produce damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. - Strong winds will follow the front. Gale conditions are forecast to impact the coastal waters through the afternoon hours behind a strong cold front. Small Craft Advisories bookend the Gale conditions. A Wind Advisory is also in place for coastal locations and areas south of Lake Pontchartrain through this afternoon. And, if that`s not enough the winds combined with low humidities this afternoon have led to issuance of a Red Flag Warning for elevated wildfire danger. - There is increasing confidence that below freezing temperatures will be noted along and north of the I-12 corridor early Tuesday morning. A Freeze Watch is in effect for those areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Upper trough extended from Iowa to east Texas, with ridging along the Pacific coast. A strong cold front was approaching McComb and Baton Rouge at midnight CDT. A broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms was just ahead of the front. Temperatures that were in the lower and middle 70s will drop through the 50s in the wake of the front overnight. The daytime hours today will be characterized by windy conditions, decreasing clouds and much cooler temperatures. High temperatures that were in the 80s on Sunday will not get out of the 50s today and Tuesday. Additionally, much drier air will be moving in and have lowered dew points from NBM deterministic values as they usually do not perform well in post-frontal situations. Relative humidity values combined with windy conditions justify the Red Flag Warning that was issued yesterday. For tonight, NBM continues to track well above the globals for overnight lows, and go a bit closer to NBM25 for the lows. Would note that the last cold spell, the globals ended up being too cool, so won`t jump whole-heartedly onto the global numbers. Even the NBM forecast lows are near or below the records for March 17th and 18th. Won`t change parameters of the Freeze Watch at this time, and assume that day shift will upgrade to a warning with the midday/afternoon package. For Tuesday, very dry air remains in place, but wind speeds will generally be below 10 mph, so don`t anticipate needing Red Flag Warnings on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Northwest upper flow continues through about Thursday before ridging builds in from the west. Surface high pressure will be over the Gulf for the 2nd half of the workweek through the weekend. Don`t expect any significant precipitation through the weekend. Wednesday morning will still be chilly, and the Pearl and Pascagoula River drainage basins could hit pretty close to freezing again. Beyond that point, temperatures will moderate, returning to much above normal levels for the weekend, around 80 degrees. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Cold front moving through northwest sections of the area, with KBTR and KMCB likely seeing the FROPA prior to the new package actually going into effect. Current forecast timing will have the front through all forecast terminals prior to 10z. MVFR ceilings prevailing, but there will be the potential for IFR or lower conditions with TSRA as they move through a terminal. Wind gusts to 40 knots are likely with the TSRA, and KMCB saw a 38 knot gust at 0520z. Gusty northwest winds, with gusts in excess of 30 knots are likely at all terminals through at least late morning, with MVFR ceilings improving to VFR. Cloud cover likely to diminish by midday, and gusty winds should diminish by sunset at all terminals except KNEW. && .MARINE... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Cold front will move through most or all waters prior to sunrise. Will maintain the previously issued headlines with conditions gradually improving during the day on Tuesday. Beyond that point, don`t see any wind/wave issues returning for the remainder of the forecast period. Fog doesn`t appear to be much of a threat until perhaps next weekend. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-065>067-071-076- 079>086. Freeze Watch from this evening through Tuesday morning for LAZ034>037-039-047-048-071-076-079>084. Wind Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ056>060-064>070-076>078-080-082-084-086>090. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. Gale Warning from 4 AM early this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572- 575-577. MS...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071. Freeze Watch from this evening through Tuesday morning for MSZ068>071-077-083>088. Wind Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ086>088. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. Gale Warning from 4 AM early this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575- 577. && $$ |
| #1262609 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 AM 16.Mar.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 136 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... High Wind Watches have been upgraded to High Wind Warnings across eastern MA and RI. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of heavy rain with embedded t-storms today, especially tonight, may lead to river and small stream flooding. Poor drainage in urban areas could flood as well. - A period of strong to damaging winds across SNE tonight. - Mainly dry and trending colder Tue into Wed, then moderating temperatures Thu and especially Fri. - Unsettled pattern from Fri night through the weekend with a chance of showers at times. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Periods of heavy rain with embedded t-storms Monday, especially Monday night, may lead to some river and small stream flooding. Poor drainage in urban areas could flood as well. A deepening low moving across the Great Lakes today will bring the potential for heavy rain, flooding, embedded thunderstorms, and damaging winds to southern New England today into tonight. Starting with the rain and flooding, a warm front lifts through the region this morning, advecting in warmer air and moisture from the south. A strong LLJ with speeds topping out around 80-90 kt at 925 mb will only reinforce this WAA; 925 mb temperatures increase to 10C-15C across southern New England during the afternoon. Surface temperatures could reach the 60s today across the region. NAEFS ensemble guidance the last few runs has also shown significantly above normal IVT during this period, around 6-8 SD above normal over the region by 00z Tuesday. Guidance has also continued to show a good amount of elevated MUCAPE ranging between 200-600 J/kg with the higher amounts in CT, RI, and up into parts of central MA during the afternoon. This coupled with the strong LLJ at 925 mb would be supportive of some rumbles of thunder and more convective elements that could lead to heavier rainfall where any t-storms develop. Outside of these areas, mostly light to moderate rainfall is expected today into tonight. Totals will likely fall in the 2-3" range with localized 4"+ possible where any heavier downpours develop. KEY MESSAGE 2...A period of strong to damaging across SNE tonight. Strong signal for a period of strong to damaging wind gusts tonight across SNE as anomalous low level jet lifts across the region. Hi- res guidance indicating solid 80-90 kt LLJ at 925 mb moving up along the SNE coast 03-06z then exiting Cape Cod by 09z so looking at about a 3-4 hr window of peak winds. The challenge is how much of this jet will mix down to the surface as we will be dealing with a low level inversion. How mild it gets will be a big factor and soundings suggest damaging wind potential will increase considerably with temps 60F or higher. Given that we have increased confidence of temps near 60F this evening especially away from the immediate south coast, these mild temps should weaken the inversion enough for a period of damaging winds. Also there is quite a pressure fall rise couplet along the cold front which may also help to enhance winds near and along the boundary. As a result we upgraded the High Wind Watches to High Wind Warnings for eastern MA and RI where the strongest winds are expected in the vicinity of max low level winds. Potential for 55-65 mph gusts in this area and this is supported by HREF mean wind gusts. Low risk for a gust to 70 mph across southern RI and SE MA. Kept the wind advisories for the rest of SNE for a period of 45-55 mph gusts. Strongest gusts in the interior should be across CT and adjacent areas of central MA where a few 55-60 mph gust are possible. Hi-res CAMs do show a robust fine line to the west late afternoon and and early evening where there is modest surface instability. However, this fine line is expected to weaken as it moves into SNE later tonight as instability here is elevated above the boundary layer. However the CAMs are showing numerous convective elements moving into SNE tonight which could help to bring stronger winds to the surface. KEY MESSAGE 3...Mainly dry and trending colder Tue into Wed, then moderating temperatures Thu and especially Fri. The cold front will be well east of the coast by daybreak Tue with much drier air moving into the region. Expect mostly sunny skies but some diurnal CU as well as cooling temps aloft move into the region. The cold advection aloft will help to deepen the boundary layer which will support gusty W winds with gusts 25-35 mph. Highs will be mostly in the low-mid 40s, with 30s higher elevations. The core of the coldest air will be Tue night into Wed as 850 mb temps bottom out at -15 to -18C around 12z Wed. Lows Tue night will drop into the teens and low 20s with high only in the 30s on Wed. Winds however will be diminishing late Tue night into Wed as high pres builds into the region. Still these temps will be about 10 degrees below normal for mid March. Temps moderate Thu and especially Fri as the high moves offshore with SW flow developing. Highs should reach into the 50s on Fri ahead of an approaching cold front. KEY MESSAGE 4...Unsettled pattern from Fri night through the weekend with a chance of showers at times. Fairly active pattern setting up for next weekend as multiple northern stream shortwaves will be rotating SE toward New Eng. Timing and amplitude of these shortwaves are not certain so low confidence on details but it does appear next weekend will be an unsettled period as a series of frontal systems move into the region. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through 12z...High Confidence Deteriorating conditions into the morning hours as a warm front lifts north over the region. MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility have started to creep over the region, and light to moderate rain will overspread southern New England this morning. Monday...High Confidence IFR in expanding RA. Winds increase through the day, shifting to become more southerly, gusting 30-35 kts late afternoon and evening. Scattered TSRA is increasingly likely particularly in CT and RI. Monday Night...High Confidence. Peak of the winds, gusting gusting 40-55kts for several hours. S winds become more SW and W by 12Z. RA/TSRA possible through 07-12z, ending from west to east. Tuesday...High Confidence VFR. Region clears out behind cold front. Gusty W winds around 25-30 kt are left in its wake. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday through Thursday: VFR. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance RA, slight chance SN. Friday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Tuesday Winds ramp back up today into tonight as a powerful low pressure system approaches from the west. Seas increase considerably headed into tonight, reaching up to 15 ft and even close to 20 ft in the southern waters by 06z Tuesday. Seas 7-10 ft will be more common in the eastern waters. Winds will very likely reach storm conditions tonight. Storm Warnings are in effect for all waters. Seas decrease to around 12 ft for Tuesday as the cold front exits over the waters. W winds remain gusty to around 35 kt through the day Tuesday. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Flood Watch from 5 AM EDT early this morning through Tuesday morning for CTZ002>004. Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ002>004. MA...Flood Watch from 5 AM EDT early this morning through Tuesday morning for MAZ002>022-026. Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MAZ002>004-008>012-026. High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for MAZ005>007-013>024. RI...Flood Watch from 5 AM EDT early this morning through Tuesday morning for RIZ001>007. High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for RIZ001>008. MARINE...Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ230-236. Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. && $$ |
| #1262608 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 AM 16.Mar.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 130 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Wind Advisory was issued for the portion of Southern New England not within the High Wind Watch. The Storm Watch has been converted to a Storm Warning for all waters. A Flood Watch has been issued for the potential of some minor river and stream flooding as well as localized poor drainage flooding in urban areas. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of heavy rain with embedded t-storms Monday, especially Monday night, may lead to some river and small stream flooding. Poor drainage in urban areas could flood as well. - A period of strong to damaging winds expected across portions of SNE Monday night. - Mainly dry and trending colder Tue into Wed, then moderating temperatures Thu and especially Fri. - Period of showers possible sometime Fri night and/or Sat with a trend to drier/chillier weather Sun or Sun night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Periods of heavy rain with embedded t-storms Monday, especially Monday night, may lead to some river and small stream flooding. Poor drainage in urban areas could flood as well. The upcoming storm system will pose two hazards for southern New England, the first of which we`ll address is potential for heavy rain, flooding, and some embedded thunderstorms. A deepening low pressure system crossing the Great Lakes on Monday will direct a plume of deep moisture out ahead of it while strong dynamics both at the surface and in the middle/upper atmosphere will together bring a prolonged period of rain, heavy at times. As the warm front lifts north on Monday SNE will be placed in the warm sector featuring temperatures as warm as the low 60s and dewpoints well into the upper 50s! Warm advection showers will begin to overspread the region in the pre dawn hours on Monday. The environment is conducive to widespread light to moderate rain with embedded convective elements given 200-500 J/kg of elevated MUCAPE. These would contribute to localized heavy downpours as well as thunder. It should feel like a true Spring day, especially in those locations that make it into the 60s. Rainfall continues through the day and overnight hours, coming to a head with a potential fine line of convection (depicted in most hi-res guidance) ahead of the cold front which moves through between midnight and 5am. Anomalous moisture content in the atmosphere (PWATs near 1.5" or 3-4 SD above normal) combined with similarly anomolous jet dynamics (80-90kts at 925mb) will squeeze out a good soaking of rain, widespread 2" likely with as much as 3+" possible under any soaking t-storms. A Flood Watch has been issued for the area, given recent snowmelt combined with a decent rainfall will likely lead to rises to minor flood stage on some rivers and streams as early as Tuesday morning. Can`t rule out some localized poor drainage flooding under t-storms as well. KEY MESSAGE 2...A period of strong to damaging winds expected across portions of SNE Monday night. The other (and likely more impactful) threat from this storm system is that those impressive jet dynamics make their way to the surface as damaging wind gusts during a ~6 hour window Monday night with the passage of the cold front. As mentioned above, the wind will be screaming just overhead with some guidance indicating as much as 80- 90 kts at 925mb between 03 and 09Z. The difficulty, as is usually the case with southerly flow events like this, is that we`ll have a stout inversion in place to about 950mb which will have to be overcome to bring the strongest of those winds down. This will depend heavily on just how warm temperatures get late Monday. Regardless, winds will ramp up on Monday gusting 35-45 mph. The best shot at the damaging winds comes along and ahead of the cold front, especially if that fine line of convection forms and can help to drag the strongest gusts down. A High Wind Warning is in effect for RI and eastern MA which has the best shot at a ~3 window in any given location for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph. Best case scenario if we don`t reach these speeds, gusts of 45 to 55 mph are likely so Wind Advisories have been issued for the rest of the region. KEY MESSAGE 3...Mainly dry and trending colder Tue into Wed, then moderating temperatures Thu and especially Fri. Strong cold air advection aloft works into the region Tue morning behind the cold frontal passage. This will be offset somewhat by some mid March sunshine...although we do expect some diurnal CU too in especially across the interior and can not rule out a passing brief spot flurry/snow shower. Tue afternoon temps will mainly be in the lower to middle 40s in the lower elevations with 30s in the higher terrain. It will also be blustery with westerly wind gusts on the order of 25 to 35 mph...so it will feel colder. The cold air peaks Tue night into Wed with 850T dropping to between -15C to -18C. This is a decent shot of cold air for the second half of March. Low temps Tue night will bottom out in mainly in the teens with a few urban centers in the 20-25 degree range. Wind chills early Wed morning will be in the single digits to the lower teens! Despite plenty of sunshine Wed...Highs will be held mainly in the 30s but with much less wind as high pressure builds overhead. After a rather cold start early Thu morning...temps will begin to moderate as high pressure moves east of the region allowing return southwest flow to develop. Highs Thu will still be in the 40s...But expect highs to reach into the 50s on Fri ahead of an approaching cold front. KEY MESSAGE 4...Period of showers possible sometime Fri night and/or Sat with a trend to drier/chillier weather Sun into Sun night. A cold front approaching from the west may bring a period of showers sometime Fri night and/or Sat depending on the specific timing. Behind this cold front...think things will trend drier and chillier sometime Sun or Sun night. Quite the ways out though so this is certainly subject to change. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00Z update... Through 12z...High Confidence Deteriorating conditions into the morning hours as a warm front lifts north over the region. MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility have started to creep over the region, and light to moderate rain will overspread southern New England this morning. Monday...High Confidence IFR in expanding RA. Winds increase through the day, shifting to become more southerly, gusting 30-35 kts late afternoon and evening. Scattered TSRA is increasingly likely particularly in CT and RI. Monday Night...High Confidence. Peak of the winds, gusting gusting 40-55kts for several hours. S winds become more SW and W by 12Z. RA/TSRA possible through 07-12z, ending from west to east. Tuesday...High Confidence VFR. Region clears out behind cold front. Gusty W winds around 25-30 kt are left in its wake. KBOS Terminal...High confidence. KBDL Terminal...High confidence Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday Night through Thursday Night: Friday: Slight chance RA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Tuesday Winds ramp back up today into tonight as a powerful low pressure system approaches from the west. Seas increase considerably headed into tonight, reaching up to 15 ft and even close to 20 ft in the southern waters by 06z Tuesday. Seas 7-10 ft will be more common in the eastern waters. Winds will very likely reach storm conditions tonight. Storm Warnings are in effect for all waters. Seas decrease to around 12 ft for Tuesday as the cold front exits over the waters. W winds remain gusty to around 35 kt through the day Tuesday. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Thursday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Flood Watch from 5 AM EDT early this morning through Tuesday morning for CTZ002>004. Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ002>004. MA...Flood Watch from 5 AM EDT early this morning through Tuesday morning for MAZ002>022-026. Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MAZ002>004-008>012-026. High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for MAZ005>007-013>024. RI...Flood Watch from 5 AM EDT early this morning through Tuesday morning for RIZ001>007. High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for RIZ001>008. MARINE...Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ230-236. Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. && $$ |
| #1262607 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 AM 16.Mar.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 107 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Scattered To Numerous Severe Storms Monday Areawide. Potential Hazards: Damaging Wind Gusts, Isolated Tornadoes, and Hail. - Freeze Watch for Portions of Inland Southeast GA Monday Night - Small Craft Advisory Late Tonight through Tuesday - Frost and Freeze for Inland Southeast GA & Suwannee Valley Tuesday night && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights through Tonight: - Scattered to Numerous Severe Storms Today. Potential Hazards: Damaging Wind Gusts, Isolated Tornadoes, Hail, Frequent Lightning Strikes, and Heavy Downpours. - Light Freeze possible late tonight inland Southeast Georgia. Today: Forecast on track for strong pre-frontal squall line to push from NW to SE through SE GA/NE FL with scattered to numerous severe storm activity. All Hazards are in play with damaging winds of 50-70 mph, isolated tornadoes, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours. Timing still shows leading edge of this squall line pushing into inland SE GA/Suwannee Valley by the mid-late morning hours and reaching the I-95 corridor by the early afternoon hours, then into the Atlantic waters by the late afternoon hours. Other than the usual straight line wind threat along the squall line, will be closely monitoring discrete supercell activity ahead of the line for potential rotation and isolated tornadoes. Gradient winds out of the south and southwest ahead of the squall line in diurnal heating are expected to increase to sustained 15-25 mph with gusts in the 30- 40 mph range, but will likely fall short of Wind Advisory criteria and the main messaging will be strong winds due to severe storms anyways. Still expecting another day of above normal temps, although not quite as warm as Sunday afternoon, Max temps will reach into the lower/middle 80s across NE FL from the I-75 corridor eastward to the Atlantic Coast, while the earlier timing of the squall line will hold Max temps in the mid/upper 70s across most of SE GA and the Suwannee Valley. Tonight: Following the cold frontal passage a much colder air mass will plunge into the region along with skies becoming partly to mostly clear towards morning. Low temps will plummet into the lower to middle 30s across inland SE GA and middle to upper 30s across inland NE FL and around 40F along the Atlantic Coast. Gusty NW winds at 15-20G30 mph in the evening will slowly fade to around 10 mph during the overnight hours. There is enough confidence in low temps around 32F across inland SE GA to the NW of Waycross to post a Freeze Watch for these locations, along with some patchy frost possible for some inland locations where the wind drops off closer to 5 mph by sunrise Tuesday morning. The NW winds along with the much colder temps will drive wind chills down into the 25-30F range across SE GA and around 30F across most of NE FL, but still likely just above Cold Weather Advisory criteria at this point. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Freezing low temperatures and frost Tuesday nigh for inland southeast Georgia Much cooler and drier air will be present behind the frontal passage, with high temperatures Tuesday staying in the 50s areawide with breezy northwesterly winds. Tuesday night, northerly winds will calm and with clear skies it will dip into the 30s for inland areas, and 40s for the coast and St. Johns river basin. A light freeze and widespread frost is likely for inland southeast Georgia, with patchy to areas of frost expanding into the Suwannee Valley and I-10 corridor area. It`ll warm up a few more degrees Wednesday, with highs in the upper 50s to 60s with winds shifting onshore as high pressure builds to the northeast. Low temperatures will stay just above freezing Wednesday night, in the mid 30s to mid 40s inland, near 50 along the Atlantic coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Warming trend late in the period Temperatures will continue to warm up through the weekend as dry conditions continue. Onshore winds will generally keep coastal temperatures a few degrees cooler than inland locations, and by the weekend inland areas will see highs in the lower to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Shower activity lessening early this morning with mostly VFR conds expected along with SW winds at 5-10 knots. SW winds increase steadily to 15G25 knots through the morning hours ahead of the squall line, then still on track for potential severe storms at all terminals in the 16-20Z time frame and will continue the 25G35 knot wind gusts in TEMPO groups, along with MVFR CIGS and IFR VSBYS in TSRA activity, then some post squall line MVFR CIGS and VCSH with lesser SW-W winds 10-15 knots in the 20-24Z time frame, before becoming VFR later in the TAF period with mid/high VFR clouds remaining. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory conditions develop this morning ahead of a strong cold frontal boundary which will push into the local waters this afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to impact our local waters this afternoon, with the potential for damaging wind gusts, waterspouts, and large hail. Winds will shift to westerly following the passage of the strong cold front, with strong northwesterly winds forecast tonight and Tuesday morning throughout our local waters with gale force gusts possible as high pressure builds into the southeastern states. Winds will shift to northerly on Tuesday afternoon and then northeasterly by Wednesday as high pressure shifts northeastward towards the Mid-Atlantic coast. This strengthening high pressure center will wedge down the southeastern seaboard later this week, creating another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions on Wednesday night and Thursday. Winds and seas are expected to diminish by Friday afternoon. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rips is expected in the South to Southwest flow today ahead of the cold front with surf/breakers in the 2-4 ft range, with a continued Moderate risk on Tuesday with Northwest to North flow and surf/breakers in the 2-3 ft range. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy High Dispersion Monday And Tuesday - Critically Low Minrh Tuesday Through Friday - Scattered Severe Storms Monday A strong cold front will move southeast across the area on Monday, bringing scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. Much cooler and drier air will be present behind the cold front on Tuesday. Breezy southwest winds ahead of the front Monday will promote patchy high daytime dispersion, and patchy high dispersion continues Tuesday as winds shift northwesterly behind the front. MinRH values will drop below 30% for most inland locations Tuesday, and remain low through Friday. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog potential is not expected Tonight. A light freeze and patchy fog will be possible for portions of inland southeast Georgia Monday night, with more confidence in a freeze and widespread frost Tuesday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 76 32 54 30 / 100 10 0 0 SSI 75 37 55 41 / 80 20 0 0 JAX 82 36 57 38 / 80 20 0 0 SGJ 82 38 58 44 / 80 30 0 0 GNV 81 36 58 37 / 90 20 0 0 OCF 83 37 59 38 / 80 20 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for GAZ132>135-149. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1262606 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:03 AM 16.Mar.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1201 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong northerly winds expected tonight into Monday. A Wind Advisory is in effect for all of Southeast TX. - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected on Monday as very dry air overlaps with gusty northerly winds. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of Southeast TX on Monday. - Hazardous marine conditions occuring tonight through Monday: strong northerly winds (gusting to 40+ kt), elevated seas (10-15 ft), and potential for negative tides. A Gale Warning is in effect through Monday afternoon. - Light freeze expected in portions of the Piney Woods/Brazos Valley Monday night, followed by a warming trend through the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 The cold front is currently about to exit the offshore Gulf waters and strong northerly winds are starting to ramp up over Southeast TX. We are observing winds at 20-25 with gusts of 30-40 mph inland. These speeds are expected to prevail into the morning hours as a 50-60 knot low level jet moves overhead behind the frontal passage tonight. The Wind Advisory will continue in effect through 6 PM Monday. Make sure loose and light outdoor objects have been secured. Strong winds could also lead to power outages at times. Cold, dry air will also move in quickly behind the front tonight, with temperatures dropping into the upper 30s to mid 40s by sunrise. Taking into account the strong northerly winds, temperatures will feel closer to the upper 20s to mid 30s. Thus, make sure to bundle up during the early morning hours. Colder conditions prevail Monday, with sunny skies and highs in the 50s areawide. Very nice :P. The one thing we will have to monitor closely on Monday is the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions given how dry and windy we will be (more details on the Fire Weather Discussion below). Winds begin to relax by late afternoon to evening. CAA will continue on Monday night and will give us the coldest temperatures for this week. The lows will be in the lower 30s (near freezing) over the Piney Woods, the mid 30s to lower 40s for the rest of the inland portions, and the mid to upper 40s along the coasts. Fair weather will prevail for the rest of the work week. Southerly flow will return Tuesday and continue into the rest of the work week, resulting in another warming trend with highs will be back in the 80s by Thursday and the upper 80s to lower 90s this weekend. Cotto && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 A broken line of thunderstorms is quickly moving through the area this evening along a cold front. Strong northerly winds should develop in the wake of the front with gusts approaching 40-50 knots. Even if the strongest gusts aren`t mixing down, vertical wind shear will be present to a degree with northerly winds of 40-45 knots around 2,000 ft. Winds should ease down slightly overnight, generally 18-23 knots prevailing with gusts up to around 30-35. Winds at KGLS will take more time to taper down. Overall strong northerly winds and VFR conditions should prevail into Monday and through the remainder of the TAF period. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 As of midnight tonight, the cold front was exiting the offshore Gulf waters. Strong northerly winds of 30-35 knots and gusts of 40-50 knots are expected in the wake of the front. Seas will build to 8-15 feet. A Gale Warning is now in effect through Monday afternoon. Low water levels can be expected in the bays Monday morning. Winds will begin to relax Monday evening and seas will gradually subside Monday night into Tuesday. Light onshore winds return Tuesday night and continue Thursday. Winds may veer south- southwesterly Friday into the upcoming weekend. Cotto && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Very dry air will filter across Southeast TX in the wake of Sunday`s front. Expect elevated to critical fire weather conditions as afternoon RH values lower into the upper teens to lower 20s on Monday and northerly winds are around 20-25 mph with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. A Fire Weather Watch will be in effect for most of Southeast TX on Monday. Dry conditions prevail on Tuesday, but winds will veer southeasterly and be much lighter. RH values will begin to increase mid week into the end of the work week as south-southeasterly winds prevail and low level moisture recovers. Cotto && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 40 54 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 44 56 38 63 / 30 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 49 58 47 61 / 40 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT Monday for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338. GM...Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370- 375. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ |
| #1262605 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:09 AM 16.Mar.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1053 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1047 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Key Messages: * Strong cold front (modified Arctic airmass) arrives tonight; temperatures by Monday morning will have plummeted 40-50F degrees from Sunday afternoon`s highs. * Strong to potentially damaging winds develop tonight into Monday; northerly winds 25-35 mph are expected to gust as high as 45-55 mph with local gusts as high as 55-60 mph. * A Red Flag Warning (RFW) for a critical fire weather risk is in effect for all of Deep South Texas, excluding the island till 7 PM CDT Monday; Fire Danger ranges between Very High and Extreme. * Hazardous marine/coastal conditions likely though Monday; A Gale Warning is in effect for the Laguna Madre and Gulf Waters till 7 PM CDT Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 After today`s heat spike, which resulted in McAllen tying it`s record high of 103F set back in 2008, courtesy of strong compressional heating from a nearby dryline and strong southerly winds, a significant change to the weather pattern is just about underway for all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Driven by an anomalously strong and emerging 591-591 dam Sonoran heat ridge over the Southwestern U.S. and a mature (neutrally- tilted) powerhouse mid-latitude cyclone over the Midwest/Great Lakes Region, that`s producing combination of blizzard conditions in it`s cold sector and severe weather in it`s warm sector, a very strong cold front (modified Arctic front) will sweep through all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley tonight. Accompanying this cold front will be a 40-50F degree drop off in temperatures from this afternoon to Monday morning along with strong to damaging northerly winds 25-35 mph gusting as high as 45-55 mph late tonight into Monday. There could be an isolated case where wind gusts reach 55-60 mph. Multiple hazards, including fire weather and coastal/marine are in effect through the day on Monday in response to the Arctic front and impending weather changes. Latest radar scans and sfc analysis shows the cold front quickly advancing southward over Corpus Christi`s county warning area (CWA) and knocking on the doors of the Northern Ranchlands. Expect for this cold front to push through Deep South Texas from north to south between midnight and 4am. Along and behind the cold fropa, an enhanced pressure and thermal (isollabaric) gradient will result in strong to at times damaging winds. North-northeast winds 25-35 mph are expected to gusts as high as 45-55 mph with isolated gusts up to 60 mph. Isolated power outages are possible, so be prepared. A WIND ADVISORY remains in effect for all of Deep South Texas till 8 AM CDT and for Brooks, Kenedy, Hidalgo, Willacy, and Cameron counties till 1 PM CDT Monday. Through tonight, following the cold fropa, temperatures will plummet as these winds will usher in a modified Arctic airmass into the region. By Monday morning, wake up temperatures will be in the upper 40s across parts of the Northern Ranchlands to the mid 50s along the Rio Grande Valley. Amid additional cool air advection (CAA) and the modified Arctic airmass still building into the region, Monday will feature the coolest day of the week with daytime highs struggling to make it out of the 60s, some 30-40F degrees cooler than the highs on Sunday, and ~15F degrees cooler than normal. With the cool airmass fully locked in over the region on top or sufficient radiational cooling on clearing skies, a cold night looms Monday night with overnight lows mainly in the 40s with 50s found along/near the coast. Low relative humidity (RH) values and windy conditions on top of an ongoing drought will result in critical fire weather risk with the potential for fuels becoming combustible upon fire ignition on Monday across Deep South Texas. A Red Flag Warning (RFW) remains in effect for all of Deep South Texas, excluding the island from 10 PM CDT tonight to 7 PM Monday (see FIRE WEATHER SECTION for more details). These strong winds will also create hazardous marine and coastal conditions tonight through Monday (SEE MARINE SECTION for more details). Beyond Monday night, a warming trend is expected to take place through the remainder of the forecast period. By Thursday, temperatures are expected to return to unseasonable warm levels (80s/90s) across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Through 00z Tuesday....The main weather concern to aviation ops for the terminals through the forecast period will be the strong to potentially damaging northerly winds developing later tonight into Monday, which will likely have major impacts/implications particularly to east to west oriented runways. VFR conditions, by and large, will prevail through the 00z TAF cycle. There could be a few MVFR-LIFR clouds at times, particularly tonight. Ahead of an approaching cold front, winds will continue out of the south with speeds between 7-15 kts, occasionally gusting as high as 20 kts through the evening hours before fading. In response to the cold fropa later this tonight, winds will shift out of the north and become strong with speeds between 15-25 kts. Winds will gusts generally between 35-45 kts, however, there could be isolated gusts as high as 50 kts or so on Monday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 A Gale Warning is in effect for the Laguna Madre and Gulf Waters till 7 PM CDT Monday. North-northeast winds 25-35 knots gusting up to 40 knots or so is expected. This will drive up high seas with wave heights ranging between 13-18 feet. Monday night through Tuesday, marine conditions (seas) will improve in response to the return of lighter winds. By Wednesday, favorable marine conditions are expected to return with low to moderate winds and seas. Favorable marine conditions will prevail through the remainder of the forecast period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 A Red Flag Warning (RFW) is in effect for all of Deep South Texas, excluding the island till 7 PM CDT Monday. The combination of low relative humidity (RH) values, windy conditions, and an ongoing drought ranging from D2 Severe to D4 Exceptional, will result in critical fire weather risk on Monday. Any fires that ignite under these conditions will have the potential to become combustible and rather aggressive. We continue to urged everyone to not burn on Monday and continue to exercise safe fire weather conditions. The Texas A&M Forest Service has outlooked the region under a Very High to Extreme Fire Danger for Monday. Energy Release Component (ERC) values will be high across the region on Monday ranging between 75- 100%. Finally, fuels will be dry to critically dry on Monday. Additional fire weather concerns are possible through next weekend due to a continuation of at times low relative humidity levels and breezy conditions, in addition to an ongoing drought. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 59 64 53 72 / 20 0 10 10 HARLINGEN 52 66 47 72 / 10 0 0 0 MCALLEN 55 68 49 76 / 10 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 52 68 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 59 62 58 67 / 20 10 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 56 63 53 70 / 20 0 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ248>255-351- 353>355. Wind Advisory until 8 AM CDT Monday for TXZ248-249-252. Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for TXZ250-251-253>255-351- 353>355-451-454-455. High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT Monday through Monday evening for TXZ451-454-455. High Surf Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ451-454- 455. GM...Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ130-132-135-150-155- 170-175. && $$ |
