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| #1251975 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 17.Nov.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 431 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Light to gentle breezes, potentially variable this afternoon, will continue through tonight before slowly freshening and becoming northeast to east heading into Tuesday. -Dry air will limit shower development through much of the week. -Another day of slightly below normal temperatures today with slow warming of temperatures to near 80F by mid week and then lower 80s for late week into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 Another quiet and cool night is ongoing across the Florida Keys. Radiational cooling has been at the forefront as the Big Pine Key RAWS has dipped down to a very chilly 57 degrees early this morning with the potential for this to dip another degree or two. Elsewhere, temperatures along the Island Chain are in the mid to upper 60s and dew points are in the lower to mid 60s. Weak high pressure remains in control throughout the Keys. This is promoting northwest to north breezes of 5 to 10 knots at marine platforms surrounding the Keys with Island Chain communities either light and variable or even calm. The weak flow and basically calm winds can be attributed to the cause for substantial cooling on Big Pine Key. Otherwise, moisture is meager with GOES East Total Precipitable Water (TPW) estimating PWAT values of 0.7 to 0.9 inches throughout the area. The 00z evening sounding was also quite dry through the profile and measured a PWAT of 0.79 inches which was slightly higher than last night. This has led to KBYX radar not detecting any shower activity overnight. .FORECAST... Quiet and nice weather continues for the Keys through much of this week. A weak and flat ridge will dominate much of Florida today. This will keep dry air entrenched throughout the area and much of the state leading to nil rain chances for the foreseeable future. The exception might be over the Straits where slightly deeper moisture could lend to a shower or two. Light to gentle breezes are expected to continue through tonight. Daytime highs are expected to be in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees with overnight lows in the upper 60s. There is the potential for another substantial radiational cooling night on Big Pine before winds increase tonight. With the light winds and generally clear sky, there is the likelihood for radiational cooling across the Island Chain tonight before winds begin to increase. Any cooling tonight is most likely expected to occur in the evening before the winds begin to increase overnight. Another high pressure moving across the Southeast U.S. will lead to a strengthening of the pressure gradient across the Keys. This will promote freshening northeast to east breezes for mid to late week. This may also lead to a period of breezy conditions once again for the Island Chain, though, latest guidance is backing off on this solution. Moisture remains meager keeping rain chances near nil through the extended. As winds also shift to the east, this will lead to slowly increasing humidity and temperatures with daytime highs creeping back into the lower 80s by late next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, weak high pressure will continue to promote light to gentle breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters today. Due to the weak flow, there may be a period of variable breezes this afternoon. Another high pressure system currently over the Midwest U.S. will continue to drift eastward through Tuesday while slowly strengthening. This will promote freshening northeast to east breezes for mid week. This high will continue moving into the western North Atlantic elongating and maintaining strength as it does so. This will allow for continued moderate to fresh breezes through late week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the 06Z TAF period. A deep layer of dry air will inhibit shower development and cloud coverage. Light northwesterly winds will become northeasterlies after sunrise. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 78 69 79 71 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 77 69 79 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1251974 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:06 AM 17.Nov.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 456 AM AST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 428 AM AST Mon Nov 17 2025 * A high risk of rip currents is in effect along the north and east facing beaches of Puerto Rico and St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands through Wednesday. * Slow-moving showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase the flooding and lightning risk from the interior to western portions of Puerto Rico this afternoon. * More frequent showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely late tonight and early Tuesday morning across the U.S. Virgin Islands. && .Short Term(Today through Wednesday)... Issued at 428 AM AST Mon Nov 17 2025 During the overnight hours, mostly calm and stable conditions prevailed across the region. Skies ranged from mostly clear to partly cloudy, and minimum temperatures fell into the low to mid-70s across most coastal areas, with a few locations across the San Juan metropolitan area and the USVI holding in the upper 70s. Winds remained very light to calm under a weak surface pressure gradient. For today, the forecast remains on track. As discussed previously, the forecast area will be positioned under the subsident side of a mid- to upper-level trough, while a stationary frontal boundary lingers well to the northeast of the islands. Global model climatology comparisons from the 17/00Z runs show a gradual warming of the 500 mb temperatures as the upper trough continues to shift eastward, with values rising toward -5 to -6 degrees Celsius. Although this indicates some erosion of upper-level dynamics, the temperatures remain cool enough to support moderate instability, an environment reflected by 700-500 mb lapse rates that remain near or slightly above climatological mid-range values. A reduction in moisture is also expected, with precipitable water values between 1.3 and 1.4 inches, which is slightly below normal for mid-November. These conditions should support a quiet morning with only a few brief showers moving in from the waters and occasionally brushing coastal sectors. By the afternoon, the combination of diurnal heating, sea-breeze convergence, and local effects will likely generate scattered showers and possibly a few short-lived thunderstorms across the interior and western/northwestern portions of Puerto Rico. High-res models continue to suggest convective development despite the marginal moisture and weakening instability aloft, and under a southeasterly steering flow, some showers may also develop downwind of El Yunque and drift toward the San Juan metropolitan area. Given the relatively dry mid-levels and the short duration of convection, the flooding risk remains low for today. Moisture levels are forecast to recover slightly to near-normal values on Tuesday, with winds gradually shifting from southeasterly to more easterly. A surface trough located near the Leeward Islands may approach the region; however, most associated shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to remain south across the Caribbean waters. Even so, afternoon convection driven by local effects and sea-breeze interactions may still develop over Puerto Rico, but rainfall accumulations should be limited and the flood risk low. By Wednesday, conditions become more favorable for convection as another polar trough deepens and moves eastward across the western Atlantic into the northeastern Caribbean. The region is expected to lie beneath the more favorable, divergent side of this upper-level feature during the afternoon and evening hours. Model climatology comparisons show 500 mb temperatures dropping significantly to around -8 to -9 degrees Celsius, along with steepening 700-500 mb lapse rates and a notable decrease in 250 mb height fields and 1000- 500 mb thickness values, all indicative of more favorable upper- level support and increased instability. These changes should enhance the potential for more widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. Northeasterly steering winds may slightly limit surface heating, but convective development may still be sustained by stronger upper-level forcing, allowing showers and thunderstorms to continue or redevelop through the evening and into the overnight hours across the Atlantic waters, with occasional movement inland. Under these conditions, the flood risk may increase on Wednesday, especially in areas that experience repeated showers. && .Long Term(Thursday through Monday)... Issued at 428 AM AST Mon Nov 17 2025 A gradual improvement in the weather conditions is still anticipated by the end of the workweek into the upcoming weekend. Thursday may be the wettest day of the period due to lingering moisture across the region and the influence of the polar trough. From the deterministic guidance of the GFS and ECMWF, seasonal Precipitable Water values (1.5 - 1.6 inches) and colder 500 mb temperatures (around -8.5 degrees Celsius) are likely. Combined with local effects and daytime heating , afternoon convection may develop over the mountain ranges and southwestern Puerto Rico. Although rainfall accumulations may not reach significant flooding criteria, ponding of water over roadways, urban areas, and poorly drained areas may lead to isolated urban and small stream flooding over the aforementioned areas. By Friday, a surface high pressure system should build over the western Atlantic, promoting mostly NE winds. Weather conditions should improve over the weekend as drier air filters into the region with a mid level ridge dominating the weather pattern. From the latest model guidance, PWAT values are likely to decrease and remain below climatological normal (between 1.2 - 1.4 inches), while 500 mb temperatures will get warmer than normal by the end of the period. Patches of moisture will move occasionally across the CWA, bringing light to moderate passing showers over windward sections of the islands in the late night into the morning hours. Although afternoon convection is expected, shower activity will likely be limited under this weather pattern. Therefore, the flooding and lightning threat is not expected for the rest of the forecast period. Model guidance continues to suggest a fall in 925 mb temperatures, being Thursday cooler than normal. Although the latest GFS solution is tending to warmer temperatures for Saturday, temperatures should remain seasonal, presenting no heat threat. Hence, the heat risk should remain low for the rest of the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 428 AM AST Mon Nov 17 2025 VFR conds will prevail through 17/15Z with SKC to FEW/SCT and light/VRB winds. Brief -SHRA over local waters may brush coastal terminals but with no significant impacts. Aft 17/14Z, winds increase from the ESE-SE at 08-13 kt with sea-breeze influences. Aftn convection over the interior and wrn PR may bring VCSH/VCTS to TJSJ and TJBQ, with brief MVFR and mtn obscurations possible. PROB30 TSRA was added for TJBQ/TJSJ during peak heating. Convection diminishes aft 17/22Z with light winds returning. && .MARINE... Issued at 428 AM AST Mon Nov 17 2025 A fading pre frontal trough north of the area will keep light to gentle southeasterly winds today, becoming moderate from the east late tonight due a surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic. Pulses of a north northeasterly swell will spread across the Atlantic waters and local passages through Wednesday. Another approaching pre frontal trough will promote winds from the northeast later in the workweek. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 428 AM AST Mon Nov 17 2025 As mentioned in previous discussions, conditions were expected to deteriorate due to pulses of north-northeasterly swells arriving over the region. Current buoy observations show an increase in period (between 10 - 12 seconds, up to 15 seconds for the San Juan buoy), which results in breaking waves around 6 feet, promoting hazardous beach conditions. Hence, a high risk of rip currents is in effect for the northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Residents and visitors planning on visiting the beach are urged to exercise caution, as life- threatening rip currents are present along the surf zone. Heed the advice of the flag warning system and swim near a lifeguard. Afternoon convection may produce gusty winds and lightning, beachgoers should remain weather alert and seek shelter whenever they hear thunder. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-012. VI...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for VIZ002. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1251973 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:45 AM 17.Nov.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 331 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure gradually builds in from the west today, then becomes centered over the region early Tuesday. The high moves offshore Tuesday afternoon ahead of a low pressure system, which will bring a quick chance of rain Tuesday night. Primarily dry Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure returns. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 315 AM EST Monday... Key Messages: - Sunny, and cooler today, with breezy conditions across NE portions of the local area. An upper trough is located across eastern Canada and New England early this morning. At the surface, intense low pressure (~975mb) is centered over New Brunswick/northern Nova Scotia, with ~1019mb high pressure centered from the upper midwest SSW into the mid-MS Valley. The sky is clear over the local area with a very dry airmass in place. Winds have diminished, and locally, some places have de- coupled with temperatures falling into the lower 30s. Where w light wind continues, readings are significantly warmer, ranging through the 40s. High pressure will be slow to build in from the the WNW today, as low pressure lifts NE towards New Foundland. The pressure gradient will remain strongest over the Eastern Shore where a NW wind of 15-20 mph will gust to 25-30 mph will prevail, while farther inland, there should still be enough pressure gradient when combined with a well mixed dry airmass to support a NW wind of 10-15 mph with gusts ~20 mph, at least through mid- afternoon, before relaxing later in the afternoon (see Fire WX section below for details on an Increased Fire Danger statement that has been issued for VA-MD zones). Cooler today with high temperatures ranging from ~50F/lower 50s over the Eastern Shore to the upper 50s/around 60F in south central VA and NE NC. High pressure settles over the area tonight into early Tuesday morning with low temperatures dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s inland, to the mid 30s to around 40F at the coast. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM EST Monday... Key Messages: - Low pressure moves in later Tuesday into Tuesday night with rain chances for the local area. Clouds increase and thicken Tuesday (from NW to SE) ahead of a weakening surface low pressure system approaching from the WNW. Rain will attempt to arrive from W-E late Tuesday afternoon, but will initially have to overcome a rather dry airmass as forecast soundings depict a rather dry sub-cloud layer. The highest rain chances, 60-80% rain chances are primarily along and north of US-460 Tuesday evening, then shifting ESE overnight. Not expecting lot of beneficial rainfall from it, though any rain will be welcome. The latest 00Z/17 runs of the EPS/GEFS show a high probability (80%+) for receiving 0.10" or greater across the north, and 30-50% chc for 0.50"+ from Louisa/Caroline to the MD easter shore. Meanwhile, south of US 460, they show less than 50% chc for 0.10"+. the latest QPF forecast is close to these values, with the bulk of the rain falling Tuesday evening, lingering closer to the coast overnight/early Wed morning. High temperatures Tuesday will range from the upper 50s/lower 60s in the far south, to the lower 50s for the north, with some upper 40s possible in the northern piedmont if thicker cloud cover arrives earlier. Low temperatures will not be as chilly given clouds and rain, and range from the upper 30s N to the mid 40s S. Low pressure pushes offshore Wednesday with weak high pressure building in from the W. Mainly dry aside from low rain chances along the coast early Wednesday. Becoming partly sunny with high temperatures ranging from the mid 50s N to the mid 60s S (though will note there is a large spread in guidance as the NAM keeps some low clouds in place most of the day). Partly cloudy Wed evening, with increasing clouds overnight. Lows will be mild, generally ranging through the 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 AM EST Monday... Key Messages: - Gradually warming temperatures are expected for the remainder of the week. - Passing disturbances bring chances of light rain Thu night/Friday into Saturday. Weak high pressure prevails Wednesday night into Thursday. This will result in dry and mainly partly cloudy conditions. Weakening low pressure tracks front the Great Lakes to the northeast Thursday night into Friday, with the trailing (but weakening) cold front dropping into the area Friday night into Saturday. This will produce occasional low-end light rain chances (greatest N) later Thursday night through Saturday. Spread in the model guidance remain high by later next weekend, but overall the blended guidance shows dry conditions by Sunday at this time. A gradual moderating trend is expected Thursday through Saturday with highs mainly in the 60s Thursday (50s NE), then upper 60s to lower 70s Friday and Saturday, with mid 70s possible S both days. Forecast lows are in the mid 40s to lower 50s Friday morning, and then the 50s Saturday morning. The latest blended guidance depicts slightly cooler, but still above average temperatures later next weekend. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 200 AM EST Monday... VFR conditions/mainly clear skies expected through the 06z TAF period. Winds have diminished considerably early this morning, but will increase again as mixing develops from around 15Z through ~21Z. NW winds from 15-21Z will average 8-12kt with gusts to ~20kt, and locally 15-20kt with gusts to 25-30kt at SBY. Continued VFR with light wind tonight under a mainly clear sky. It remain VFR for most of Tuesday, with increasing clouds and a light southerly wind (light onshore flow near the coast in SE VA). Rain becomes likely at RIC and SBY Tuesday night, with a chance of light rain farther south. Degraded flight conditions are expected st SBY, and possible elsewhere Tuesday night/early Wed as a quick- moving low pressure system passes through. Primarily VFR Wednesday through Thursday as weak high pressure returns. Another chance for light rain across northern terminals Thu night- Friday could bring flight restrictions. && .MARINE... As of 300 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Gale Warnings remain in effect this morning for the coastal waters north of Parramore Island, with Small Craft Advisories in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and southern coastal waters through this afternoon. - Benign marine conditions beginning Tuesday. Gusty northwest winds continue early this morning behind yesterday`s cold frontal passage as CAA pushes into the local area. Speeds aren`t quite as strong as originally expected, but still producing solid SCA winds across the Bay and coastal waters south of Parramore Island. Thus, the Gales Warnings that were in effect for those locations have been converted to Small Craft Advisories through early to mid afternoon for gusts up to 25kt. Gale Warnings still remain in effect, however, for the northern coastal waters through mid-morning as the pressure gradient remains tightened around a departing low pressure system. Also, an offshore observation is showing those higher wind speeds and guidance continues to indicate gusts up to 35kt being possible. Once the Gales end, a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed in its place to match up with the rest as seas linger at 5-6ft through the afternoon. There could be some additional CAA overnight, though latest guidance isn`t too keen on bumping sustained winds any higher than 15-17kt. If speeds trend any higher though, additional SCAs may be needed. Much lighter winds are expected Tuesday as high pressure settles in from the west. A weak system passes through the area late Tuesday night into early Wednesday, shifting the winds to the NNE and bringing a slight chance of rain. However, sub-SCA conditions are expected to continue into late week. A potential weather system may raise winds by the weekend. Seas are 3-6 ft (locally 7-9 ft out 20 nm) early this morning, and are expected to gradually subside throughout the day today to 3-4ft this evening and 2-3ft by Tuesday. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay are generally 2-4ft currently before also subsiding to 1-2ft by early morning Tuesday. Seas and waves should remain benign in those ranges for most of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 300 AM EST Monday... An IFD/SPS has been issued from late morning through 5PM across all VA-MD zones. High pressure will be slow to build in from the W today as strong low pressure lingers across eastern Quebec and Atlantic Canada. We have had relatively poor RH recovery early this morning (though some sheltered locations have started to de-couple and RH may reach >80% for a few hrs this morning). Either way, a very dry day is expected with min RH values dropping to 15-20% along and W of I95, to 20-30% most other places (28-35% eastern shore). The pressure gradient will remain strongest over the Eastern Shore Monday as well as the western shore of the Ches Bay where a NW wind is expected to be 15- 20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph over the Eastern Shore and 10-15 mph with gusts ~25 mph along the western shore of the Ches. Bay. Farther inland, there should be enough pressure gradient combined with a dry well- mixed airmass to support a NW wind of 10-15 mph with gusts ~20 mph, at least through mid- afternoon. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 10 AM EST this morning through this afternoon for MDZ021>025. NC...None. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 10 AM EST this morning through this afternoon for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093- 095>100-509>525. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ638. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ654- 656-658. && $$ |
| #1251972 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:45 AM 17.Nov.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 229 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Blustery and cool conditions will continue through Tuesday with decreasing winds Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure settles in. A cold front will bring a period of unsettled weather Friday which may linger into Saturday, then high pressure returns next Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Key Messages: * Blustery and chilly today with mainly dry conditions Mid level shortwave resulting in a few flurries and snow showers rotating through SNE early this morning. The shortwave moves offshore before daybreak which will bring an end to this precip. Upper low lifts northward through the Maritimes today with trough and cyclonic flow remaining over New Eng. With low-mid level moisture in place we will see a mix of sun and clouds with diurnal cu. However, expecting mainly dry weather today as forcing is minimal. Gusty winds will continue today as strong pressure gradient persists. Soundings show a well mixed boundary layer with potential for 25-40 mph gusts. Chilly airmass across SNE with 850 mb temps dropping to -10C by 12z with only minor recovery today. 925 mb temps peak around -2C. Highs will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s. Wind chills will be down in the teens and 20s to start the morning recovering to the 20s and lower 30s this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Key Messages: * Clearing and cold tonight * Mostly sunny and still a bit blustery Tue with below normal temps Upper low continues to move northward across eastern Canada tonight and Tue and slowly loses its grip on New Eng. Another shortwave passes to the north and east tonight and should not impact SNE. Expect clearing skies tonight but pressure gradient will keep winds a bit gusty into Tue with gusts to 25 mph before diminishing Tue afternoon as the gradient slackens. The column is quite dry Tue so expect lots of sunshine. Wind will limit radiational cooling tonight with lows generally in the mid-upper 20s, except lower 30s near the coast. Slight moderation in low level temps Tue so highs in the low- mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Messages: * Dry with less wind Wed-Thu but still cooler than normal * Increasing risk of showers Fri with milder temps * Showers may linger into Sat but confidence is low, then drying out Sunday. Temps trending cooler next weekend Upper level flow deamplifies Wed into Thu as a quasi-zonal flow develops. High pres builds into the region which will bring dry weather and less wind Wed and Thu, but below normal temps will continue. Coastal wave moving off the mid Atlc coast expected to remain far enough south to keep rainfall south of New Eng but northern extent of precip could get close to the Islands Wed with more clouds near the south coast. Then we have a low amplitude shortwave passage on Thu but global and ensemble guidance is dry with just an increase in cloud cover. Pattern becomes more complex for the end of the week and next weekend. A robust northern stream shortwave tracks to the north Fri with a cold front passage which should bring increasing risk of showers and milder temps preceding the front on Fri. There is uncertainty with how far south the front gets on Sat as a wave moves along the boundary, and where the front sets up will determine if unsettled condition linger into Sat. Precip may end up south of New Eng but confidence is low. Then it appears high pres will settle in for Sunday bringing dry conditions. Temps expected to trend cooler next weekend. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z Update... Through 12z... VFR, but scattered snow showers with lower conditions in the Berkshires. A few flurries possible in the interior until 08z. Today through Tuesday...High confidence. VFR through the period, but areas of MVFR cigs in the Berkshires today. W-NW gusts 25-35 kt diminishing overnight. W gusts 20-25 kt Tue. KBOS Terminal...High confidence. KBDL Terminal...High confidence. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. RA likely. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Gale Warnings continue into tonight for the outer waters. Gusty W-NW winds will continue today with gusts to 35-40 kt on the open waters. Winds diminish a bit tonight and should gradually fall below gale force, with 25-30 kt gusts lingering into Tue. Seas slowly subside late today through Tue but will remain rough. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ231>235-237- 251. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ250-254>256. && $$ |
| #1251971 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:33 AM 17.Nov.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1224 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Blustery and cool conditions will continue through Tuesday with decreasing winds Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure settles in. Quick moving frontal system arrives Friday into the weekend bringing a period of unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Key Messages: * Blustery and chilly today with mainly dry conditions Mid level shortwave resulting in a few flurries and snow showers rotating through SNE early this morning. The shortwave moves offshore before daybreak which will bring an end to this precip. Upper low lifts northward through the Maritimes today with trough and cyclonic flow remaining over New Eng. With low-mid level moisture in place we will see a mix of sun and clouds with diurnal cu. However, expecting mainly dry weather today as forcing is minimal. Gusty winds will continue today as strong pressure gradient persists. Soundings show a well mixed boundary layer with potential for 25-40 mph gusts. Chilly airmass across SNE with 850 mb temps dropping to -10C by 12z with only minor recovery today. 925 mb temps peak around -2C. Highs will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s. Wind chills will be down in the teens and 20s to start the morning recovering to the 20s and lower 30s this afternonon. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Key Messages: * Clearing and cold tonight * Mostly sunny and still a bit blustery Tue with below normal temps Upper low continues to move northward across eastern Canada tonight and Tue and slowly loses its grip on New Eng. Another shortwave passes to the north and east tonight and should not impact SNE. Expect clearing skies tonight but pressure gradient will keep winds a bit gusty into Tue before diminishing Tue afternoon as the gradient slackens. The column is quite dry Tue so expect lots of sunshine. Wind will limit radiational cooling tonight with lows generally in the mid-upper 20s, except lower 30s near the coast. Slight moderation in low level temps Tue so highs in the low-mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Messages: * Dry with less wind Wed-Thu but still cooler than normal * Unsettled weather with milder temps Fri-Sat Upper level flow deamplifies Wed into Thu as a quasi-zonal flow develops. High pres builds into the region which will bring dry weather and less wind Wed and Thu. Coastal wave moving off the mid Atlc coast expected to remain far enough south to keep rainfall south of New Eng but northern extent of precip could get close to the Islands Wed with more clouds near the south coast. Then we have a low amplitude shortwave passage on Thu but global and ensemble guidance is dry with just an increase in cloud cover. Low confidence forecast for Fri through next weekend as complex pattern develops with considerable spread in the guidance. Upper low continues to move northeast into the Maritimes into Tuesday. Overall the upper air pattern deamplifies into zonal flow midweek before another shortwave disturbance arrives by the weekend. Breezy conditions continue into Tuesday behind departing surface low. Much drier airmass with PWATS falling well below 0.5" Wed-Thu as high pres moves into the region. Weak shortwave moves through Thu but global ensembles have continued to trend further south with the bulk of the precipitation. The pattern becomes a bit more complex this weekend as a pronounced northern stream dives south across the Great Lakes. Temps will remain below normal through Thu with highs mostly in the 40s, then milder conditions anticipated Fri and Sat. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z Update... Through 12z... VFR, but scattered snow showers with lower conditions in the Berkshires. A few flurries possible in the interior until 08z. Today through Tuesday...High confidence. VFR through the period, but areas of MVFR cigs in the Berkshires today. W-NW gusts 25-35 kt diminishing overnight. W gusts 20-25 kt Tue. KBOS Terminal...High confidence. KBDL Terminal...High confidence. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday through Thursday: VFR. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. RA likely. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Gale Warnings Continue into Mon and Mon Night. Gusts to 35-40 kt with sustained W winds from 20 to 35 kt are expected to continue into tonight and Monday after a cold front passed through this morning. Seas continue to build into tonight, peaking at 12-14 ft over the southern waters. Winds will remain gusty into part of tomorrow night as well as seas begin to decrease. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ231>235-237- 251. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ250-254>256. && $$ |
| #1251970 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:21 AM 17.Nov.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 210 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler high pressure builds back in from the northwest today. A quick moving front then pushes through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Behind this system, a warming trend will bring increasing temperatures through late week with the next potential frontal system impacting the area over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 2AM Monday... Key Messages - Below average temps and dry conditions expected today Cold front that had been mentioned in previous updates is now noted offshore with high pressure oozing in from the NW this morning. This has allowed winds to ease becoming light and variable to calm at times inland, with a light NW`rly wind at 5-10 mph noted along the OBX. With clear skies, this will allow temps to drop into the mid 30s to mid 40s this morning. As we get into the day today, expect high pressure to continue to build over the Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon and evening bringing mo clear skies and a steady 5-10 mph NW`rly wind with gusts up to 15-20 mph mainly in the morning to early afternoon hours. This will promote CAA across the region keeping high temps below avg, ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s today. In addition to this, we will remain dry with RH`s generally ranging from the 20-35% range across the area. While this would typically promote an increased fire danger risk across the region, given the lighter winds elected to not hoist one. (See Fire Weather Section for more details) && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 2 AM Monday... Key Messages - Cold and dry tonight High pressure will continue to build over the Mid-Atlantic tonight, likely becoming centered around the NC/VA vicinity after sunset. This will promote clear skies,and light winds allowing for a great setup for radiational cooling across the region. As a result, have gone with the lower end of guidance with lows getting into the low to mid 30s inland and low to mid 40s along the immediate coast and OBX. Would not be shocked if we saw temps near or just below freezing across the Coastal Plain tonight given the setup but with the frost freeze program ended across these counties already, no headlines are planned for tonight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 2 AM Sunday... Key Messages: - Extended period of above normal temperatures appears likely from mid-week on - Stronger frontal system possible this weekend Will have a weak upper trough tracking across the Mid-Atalntic on Tue and Wed with the associated mid level shortwave doing the same. Upper ridging then builds over the Southeast from Wed evening on into the end of the week. Forecast uncertainty then increases over the weekend and into early next week with the potential for another trough or two to track across the Mid- Atlantic, though exact evolution of these upper level features remains highly uncertain for now. At the surface, high pressure pushes offshore Tue as a low and its associated cold front then push across the region Tue night into Wed. This will bring a chance for cloud cover and a few scattered showers mainly along and north of Hwy 264 where Chc PoP`s are noted. While SChc PoPs extend as far south as central Duplin/Jones and Craven Counties. General timing for precip if it were to occur falls between about 10PM Tue to 10AM Wed. With winds briefly becoming S`rly Tue night into Wed expect a warming trend with highs in the upper 50s to 60s Tue and upper 60s to low 70s Wed ahead of the front with lows Tue night getting into the mid 40s to low 50s. Low and front quickly push offshore by Wed afternoon allowing skies to clear as high pressure builds in from the west. This will bring benign weather and continued avg to above avg temps to ENC through the end of the week. As mentioned before, incoming upper trough this weekend could bring a stronger frontal system through ENC which would bring a better chance at some precip, though given larger than avg uncertainty in the forecast, exact details still need to be hashed out. High pressure is then forecast to build in behind whatever frontal system impacts ENC. Temps continue to remain avg to above avg going into early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1230 AM Monday... Key Messages: - VFR conditions expected through the TAF period - NW winds gusting to 15-20 knots today High pressure builds into the region through the TAF period bringing mainly clear skies. NW winds will gust around 15-20 kt from mid morning through the afternoon, then will quickly become light/calm early this evening as we decouple. Outlook: VFR conditions prevail through Tuesday with high pressure building across the region. A couple of weak systems transit the area Tuesday night through Thursday that could bring isolated showers across rtes with lower cigs, however guidance keeps VFR. && .MARINE... As of 2 AM Monday... Key Messages - Winds quickly ease this morning - Elevated seas are forecast to lower this morning - Elevated winds and seas potentially return this weekend Cold front has pushed offshore this morning with widespread 10-20 kt NW`rly winds and wind gusts up around 20-25 kts noted across all our waters this morning. Seas along the coastal waters generally remain around 4-6 ft. This has kept SCA`s up across the Pamlico Sound and Coastal Waters, though with winds and seas underpreforming, could see a much quicker end (4-7AM timeframe) of the ongoing SCA`s as high pressure builds into the area. As high pressure builds into the area from the west, winds ease further through the day to 5-15 kts with gusts up around 15-20 kts while seas lower down to 2-4 ft by late this morning. This will end any SCA conditions across our waters with relatively benign boating conditions forecast from Mon afternoon on. Outlook: High pressure moves offshore on Tue shifting winds to a SW`rly direction. Then as a weak cold front pushes through the region Tue night into Wed, winds shift to a N-NE direction at 5-15 kts, with 2-4 ft seas and scattered showers possible. Lighter winds and seas remain in place through Fri morning before increasing Sat with the approach of a stronger cold front. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 1230 AM Monday... Key Messages: - Dry conditions with minimum relative humidity around 20-35% this afternoon - Wind gusts around 15-20 mph today High pressure will build into the area today bringing a very dry airmass. After a night with only moderate RH recoveries around 50-60%, minimum RH values are expected to be around 20-25% across much of the coastal plain and 25-35% closer to the coast this afternoon. NW winds are expected to gust around 15-20 mph with the higher end from mid morning once deeper mixing commences to mid day, then gradients gradually relax with the gustiness gradually diminishing through the afternoon. Although minimum RHs will meet criteria for an Increased Fire Danger Statement, the winds will remain below the threshold and will forgo issuing an IFD. High pressure will become centered over the area tonight and Tuesday with a dry airmass remaining in place and expect minimum RH values around 25-35% away from the coast but winds will be light at mainly less than 10 mph. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ150-152. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ154- 156-158. && $$ |
| #1251969 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:15 AM 17.Nov.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 110 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1137 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Risk for rip currents may increase to a high risk late in the week ahead of the next chance for showers and storms. - Rain chances gradually increase into the weekend; however, drought conditions are expected to continue across the area until the rain arrives. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1137 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Dry and mild conditions continue next week as upper level high pressure slowly builds over the area. High pressure looks to be in control through Thursday with mainly a temperature forecast through the week. A subtle backdoor cold front is currently working across Alabama as dewpoints are slowly dropping across our northwest. Otherwise, temperatures will remain well above normal floating around in the upper 70s to low 80s most of the week and possibly floating around some daily record highs. Lows will gradually increase each day as low level flow steadily turns more southerly and dewpoints begin to increase. Expect lows to start off in the mid to upper 50s and climb into the 60s by the end of the week. The only hazard we will likely deal with each night will be the potential for patchy fog as moisture increases and calm cool nights allow for maximized radiational cooling. The next chance for rain arrives late in the week as the next upper trough digs into the central US. In response to the upper trough, the ridge will amplify across the area and southerly moisture transport will steadily increase Thursday through Friday. The upper trough is expected to eject across the Mid-Mississippi valley into the Great Lakes Region. This trough and jet progression will likely leave us on the outside looking in on any substantial rain as the best diffluence is off to our northwest. Given the current progression, rain and storms would likely be hard to come by and that is even noted with mostly scattered storms and NBM probability of lightning only being around 20% despite increased instability across the area. The forecast becomes a little more uncertain with the evolution of the second upper trough/cutoff low. Guidance is still rather complicated as we head into Sunday as the lead cold front hangs up across the deep south. While the pattern will remain rather active, exact rain chances and potential for any storms will likely not be ironed out for a couple of days. So for now we are just going to continue to monitor the situation. Rip current probabilities continue to indicate that a potential rise to a MODERATE risk for all beaches on Thursday afternoon into the weekend. BB-8 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 VFR conditions will persist through midnight. Some low ceilings and possibly patchy dense fog could develop mainly south of I-10 and west of I-65 ahead of a backdoor cold front coming in from the northeast. As of now, guidance seems to support low ceilings over fog but we saw how that went for us last night. For now have likely MVFR ceilings with some IFR visbys along the immediate coastline with more MVFR ceilings across interior portions of the area. Ceilings and visbys should improve shortly after sunrise with VFR conditions returning and a light northeasterly to easterly wind becoming southeasterly by late afternoon. BB-8 && .MARINE... Issued at 1137 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Light easterly flow will develop on Monday. A light southeasterly flow prevails for Tuesday and Wednesday, then becomes light to moderate on Thursday and becomes southerly on Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 79 57 79 59 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 78 60 76 61 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 76 60 75 61 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 81 52 79 51 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 79 55 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 79 51 75 52 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 80 53 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1251968 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 AM 17.Nov.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 138 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy to areas of fog possible tonight. - Sunny, dry, and gradually warming conditions continue into next week. - Benign marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 135 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 If you enjoyed yesterday`s weather, you`re in luck, today will be much the same. Some early morning fog could hinder the morning commute, but should lift by mid morning. A weak frontal boundary will move over the area today and stall out. However, this front will have little to no impact to the area and rain chances will remain absent through the week. High pressure builds back overhead by midweek, aiding in the warm dry conditions. Temperatures will linger around the low to mid 80s through the week. Another front move through the area this weekend, with only a very slight chance of rain ahead of it and a couple degree drop in temperatures. Otherwise, the quiet warm and dry conditions continue. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 135 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 Mainly VFR conditions prevail. Only exception will be any patchy fog that could move over terminal sites. Fog should clear by mid morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 135 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 Marine conditions remain pleasant through the week as winds remain below headlines. Light and variable overnight winds will shift NW through the day, increasing slightly. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 135 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 Fire weather concerns remain minimal as critical RH values remain above criteria and winds remain light. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 82 64 84 64 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 81 62 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 82 61 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 79 62 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 81 55 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 79 65 81 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1251967 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 AM 17.Nov.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 123 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1218 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 - Elevated fire weather concerns continue this afternoon over portions of Southeast Alabama and Southwest Georgia for critically low relative humidity. Use caution with outdoor flames and follow local officials regarding any burn bans. - No significant rainfall expected through the remainder of the week. Drought conditions will continue and/or get worse across the region. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 1218 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 A weak cold front is traversing south through the region this morning. As of 1 am ET, the front extended roughly from Tifton, Georgia to Troy, Alabama and was making steady southward progress. This front will continue south into Gulf waters by tonight and bring much drier air with it, especially across our Alabama and Georgia counties. The drier air will bring elevated fire weather concerns to these areas, but more critical concerns are not likely to develop given the absence of strong post-frontal winds. Regardless, given recent drought conditions please exercise considerable caution if outdoor activities involve any flames. Drier and cooler conditions can be expected tonight with overnight lows dropping into the low to mid 40s and the low 50s along the coastline. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1218 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 Quiet conditions should prevail through much of the forecast period from Tuesday onwards. Surface high pressure and an upper level ridge axis will move into and east of the region from Tuesday through Friday. This will allow winds to become east and southeasterly on Tuesday and south and southwesterly by Wednesday and Thursday. With increasing low-level moisture and stable conditions, expect increasing chances for fog in the overnight periods. Our next chance of rain doesn`t look to arrive until the weekend, but model ensemble guidance continues to remain pessimistic towards any significant drought-relieving rainfall. Additionally, rain chances have slowly decreased from what guidance was advertising a few days ago. We`ll keep an eye on how the forecast evolves. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 A backdoor front finishes pushing thru the FL Big Bend & Panhandle overnight with lgt/vrb winds and a drier airmass unfavorable for fog in its wake. However, there is a brief window for fog development invof of TLH/ECP prior to frontal passage until about 10Z. Restrictions down to MFVR/IFR are possible. Expect a prevailing NE wind AOB 5 kts this morning-aftn with some passing mid-level clouds. && .MARINE... Issued at 1218 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 Winds and seas will subside today, and more tranquil boating conditions will return through Wednesday as high pressure settles over the waters. As the high center moves east and a low center approaches the Mississippi Valley, southeasterly winds will increase by Thursday. Only forecast concerns will be the possibility of near-shore marine fog as southerly flow returns. The probabilities would be highest across the Apalachee Bay where cooler shelf waters could make fog development easier. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1218 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 A weak cold front will be moving through the forecast area this morning. For much of our Alabama and Georgia counties, the dry air behind this front will be well established by the time we hit our maximum temperatures. This will result in elevated fire concerns due to critically low relative humidities (RH) around 17-23%. Light winds will keep more critical fire weather concerns from developing. Further south across our Florida counties, relative humidities will be low as well but the timing of the dry air behind the front makes the RH forecast more uncertain. A faster timing of the front this morning could yield RHs in the upper 20% range, but if it is slower it would mean min RHs more in the lower 30% range. Northeast winds around 5 to 8 mph will prevail. Through the remainder of the week, the flow becomes southeasterly on Tuesday and then south and southwesterly by Wednesday and Thursday. This should allow a moderating trend in afternoon RHs, but this increase in RHs and moisture will allow better overnight fog potential, especially across our Florida counties. Wetting rain chances remain very low and the only chance at rain likely doesn`t arrive until late in the upcoming weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1218 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 Rainfall through Sunday is expected to be near zero, drought conditions will therefore persist and/or worsen across much of the Tri-State area. Visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought for more information. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 78 50 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 78 56 77 59 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 76 48 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 74 44 80 51 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 76 46 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 81 50 82 51 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 73 58 73 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1251966 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:30 AM 17.Nov.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1228 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm weather will persist through midweek. - Periods of late night and early morning fog possible on a daily basis. - Rain chances remain minimal through Tuesday, then increase Wednesday into Thursday ahead of an approaching disturbance. A cold front is expected to reach the area late in the work week, bringing a stronger round of showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1202 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Ridging aloft will continue to bring warm and mostly benign conditions throughout much of the work week. Temperatures remain around 10-20 degrees above normal, exceptionally warm for mid- November. A few disturbances passing to the north will weaken the ridge slightly today, resulting in a slight dip in daytime temperatures. Still, this won`t really move the needle all that much as highs are still expected in the upper 70s/80s with lows generally in the 60s/lower 70s. Ample moisture, light winds & most clear skies keeps fog on the tap for each day during the nighttime/early morning hours. It`ll be mostly patchy as we`ve seen the last several days, with some dense pockets, mainly at fog-prone locations like KCXO and KLBX. If you`ve run into some pockets of fog on your morning commutes these last few days, chances are you`ll see the same thing again, so plan accordingly. Rain is still slated to return around mid week as an upper level low swings across the Desert southwest. Several weaker shortwaves & PVA impulses out ahead of this trough will supply lift necessary for a scattered showers and storms on Wednesday, rising further into Thursday as a cold front approaches SE Texas. Models have shifted the FROPA timing later (almost a whole day in some cases), now showing it move through some time late Thursday/early Saturday. We`ll still likely see a line of showers/thunderstorms along the front, then followed by cooler weather in it`s wake. Models still indicate that the trough associated with this cold front will take on a negative tilt prior to it`s arrival. NBM Mean SFC CAPE has trended lower, falling to around/under 1200 J/KG ahead of the front, though LREF bulk shear remains at 35-50 knots over the region. These shear values remain greatest in the Piney Woods Area, where upper level forcing is still anticipated to be strongest. This high shear/low instability environment has the potential to produce a few stronger storms with this upcoming cold front. Even with the downward trend in instability, it`ll still be worth monitoring over the next few days. Long range models are out of phase by the weekend. NBM leans wetter with a less progressive scenario, where the front slows/stalls. Though, there are a few models/ensemble members showing faster & drier scenarios too. In either case, temperatures are still anticipated to decrease, though on the whole still a tad above normal for the weekend. Long range ensembles keep this above normal trend through around Thanksgiving. Afterwards, ensembles show more seasonable temperatures. 03 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 525 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected over SE TX through early tonight, then we are expected a mix of IFR to VFR conditions in response to the development of patchy to dense fog during the overnight to early morning hours. Visibilities will increase as fog dissipates between 13-15Z, however, ceilings may take a little longer to lift. S-SE winds will be at 5 KTS or less tonight, then increase to 06-12 KTS from late Mon morning to Mon evening. Cotto && .MARINE... Issued at 1202 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow can be expected through Tuesday. Patchy fog inland may spill into portions of the northern bays & upper ship channel during the late night and early morning hours each day. Winds, seas and rain chances increase on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Caution flags and potentially Small Craft Advisories may be needed early Thursday into Friday. These higher winds and seas may also bring a high risk of rip currents along Gulf- Facing beaches. The cold front should move off the coast late Friday/early Saturday, bringing a line of showers/thunderstorms with it. Northerly winds settle in behind the front. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 67 85 67 84 / 10 10 10 40 Houston (IAH) 67 86 69 85 / 0 10 10 20 Galveston (GLS) 71 81 71 81 / 0 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1251965 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:27 AM 17.Nov.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 111 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... As high pressure builds into the region early this week, the forecast is expected to remain rain-free throughout the work week. A warm front should lift north of the region by Wednesday, and allow for unseasonable warm conditions to persist afterwards. Another cold front could pass through the region this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Through Sunrise: Radar and surface observations indicate a dry cold front is quickly moving south through our area. It`ll be located to our south by daybreak. Today and Tonight: The mid-levels will consist of weak ridging building towards our area. This will cause WNW flow overhead with heights slightly rising. At the surface, High pressure will build in from the northwest this morning, passing to our north this afternoon and evening, then becoming located to our northeast tonight. The High will bring our area dry conditions with some passing clouds. There will be a large range in high temperatures, peaking from the mid 60s across the Charleston Tri-County, to the mid 70s near the Altamaha River and vicinity. Mostly clear skies and light to calm winds will cause plenty of radiational cooling tonight. There will also be a large range in low temperatures. They should bottom out in the upper 30s very far inland, the 40s across most of our area, and the lower to middle 50s at/near the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A shortwave trough situated over the Great Plains will slowly weaken as it moves across the Appalachian Mtns., before re- organizing off of the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Wednesday afternoon. Simultaneously, an associated front will approach the region, but it is expected to weaken and stall out across the Mid-Atlantic before washing out. There is no precipitation expected with this system as the majority of forcing remains to the north of the region. This pattern yield weak return flow across the region with increasing low- lvl thicknesses. Temperatures will progressively warm-up throughout the period as WAA and mostly sunny skies promote unseasonable warm conditions. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A strong upper-lvl ridge with nearly 590 DM will be present over the Gulf on Thursday night and the majority of Friday. Expect temperatures to remain generally 10 to 12 degrees above normal with a rain-free forecast. High temperatures Thursday and Friday will reach near record highs (see Climate section), with low 80s across the SC Lowcountry to the low to mid 80s across SE GA. The next chance for precipitation will be Saturday as a surface low develops across the central CONUS and throws an associated cold front towards the region. With a fairly complex synoptic pattern, there is quite a bit uncertainty as model guidance widely differs with the timing of this front. It really depends on how much of an impact the H5 ridge located along the Atlantic coast will have on the system. A stronger ridge results (seen in the 12Z ECMWF) in a slower progression of the cold front, while a weaker ridge (seen in the 00Z GFS) results in a faster moving progression. It is possible the forecast may trend cooler and wetter if the 12Z ECMWF guidance holds true. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 06Z TAFs: VFR. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. It is possible that periods of ground fog may develop during the pre-dawn hours on Wednesday. && .MARINE... Through Sunrise: A dry cold front is quickly moving south through our coastal waters. It`ll be located south of our waters by daybreak. Winds and seas may become slightly higher behind the front, but no Small Craft Advisories are expected. Today and Tonight: High pressure will build in from the northwest this morning, passing to our north this afternoon and evening, then becoming located to our northeast tonight. The High will bring our coastal waters tranquil conditions. Tuesday through Saturday: As surface high pressure continues to build across the local marine zones, west-southwesterly winds will remain light and variable. Ahead of the developing surface low across the central CONUS, winds could increase to 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts on Friday night into the weekend. Seas will generally range from 1 to 3 ft. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure building in from the north today will bring dry conditions. RH values are expected to be critically low this afternoon. Inland RH values should drop into the teens, while closer to the coast RH values should fall into the 20s. Winds should be fairly light today, which should limit fire weather concerns. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: November 20: KCHS: 82/1942 KCXM: 78/1900 KSAV: 83/1942 November 21: KSAV: 82/2011 November 22: KSAV: 82/1997 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1251964 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:12 AM 17.Nov.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1200 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1157 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Above average temperatures continue through mid week, then cooler behind a cold front later in the week. - Low to medium chances for showers/thunderstorms (20-40%) across the northern Brush Country, northern Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads Wednesday, increasing to a medium to high chance (30-60%) across S TX on Thursday ahead of a cold front. - Small Craft Advisories possibly needed Wednesday through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1157 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 High pressure will continue to shift with a few shortwaves moving across Texas. A deepening mid- to upper level low will develop across the Desert Southwest by the middle of the week, tightening the pressure gradient and leading to moderate to strong southerly winds and increasing moisture across South Texas ahead of the next cold front. There is still uncertainty with the timing and strength of the cold front so we will continue using the NBM timing which keeps the front expected Thursday night/Friday morning. There will be a pre-frontal boundary that leads to some showers and thunderstorms which also confuses the situation just a little bit. Guidance hints at a winds shift and a low to medium (20-40%) chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday across the northern Brush Country and Coastal Plains, and over the Victoria Crossroads as the boundary interacts with low-level moisture. Chances increase to a medium to high (30-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday as the actual cold front approaches and moves across South Texas. Depending on the timing of the front, there could be a few strong thunderstorms Thursday/Thursday night. Rain chances will diminish through the day Friday behind the front as cooler and drier air moves into the area. A low (10-30%) chance of showers will continue into next weekend due to isentropic lift. Patchy to areas of fog can be expected each morning through early next week, mainly inland Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. Brief periods of visibilities down to a 1/4 of a mile will be possible. Dense Fog Advisories may be needed. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Current VFR conditions are forecast to fall to IFR/LIFR levels early Monday morning mainly due to fog development. Although across the western terminals these poor aviation conditions will be temporary, across the eastern sites these will prevail through the mid morning hours before improving to VFR levels. Winds will increase across the region on Monday, becoming gusty at around 20-25 knots by the afternoon. Winds will then remain elevated through at least the evening hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1157 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 A south to southeast moderate (BF 4) breeze will increase to a moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze Monday afternoon. A cold front will approach the area Wednesday, increasing winds to fresh to strong Wednesday night through Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory may be necessary. Winds will diminish to a moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze and shift to the south and southwest Thursday night. Winds will shift to the east then northeast Friday as the cold front moves across the Coastal Waters. Rain chances increase the middle of next week ahead of the cold front, with a medium chance (40-65%) as the cold front moves through the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1157 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Light to moderate southerly winds and continuing moisture advection will help limit fire weather concerns across South Texas. The winds are expected to strengthen through mid week ahead of a cold front, but afternoon RH values will be above 40% west to 60% east. The cold front is expected to move through South Texas Thursday night into Friday morning. High ERC values and dry fuels are still in place, so caution is urged around any sparks or open flames. The next chance for rain will be the middle of the week as the cold front approaches South Texas. Behind the cold front, RH values will remain elevated along with a chance for wetting rains and lighter winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 87 69 86 70 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 88 65 86 65 / 0 0 10 0 Laredo 92 68 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 91 65 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 82 70 82 71 / 0 0 10 0 Cotulla 91 66 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 89 66 89 68 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 81 73 81 73 / 0 0 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1251963 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:00 AM 17.Nov.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1254 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler temperatures are expected today and will be quickly replaced with a warming trend through the remainder of the week. The next chance of rain likely won`t arrive until next weekend, but uncertainty remains high at this time. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Cold air advection will be underway for all but the very end of the period, possibly terminating around sunrise Tuesday. This will bring seasonably cool temperatures this afternoon with highs in the mid 60s. Dewpoints will also be dropping today in deep layer NW flow, PW values dropping to 0.3 inches or lower. High pressure builds in tonight, centered to our north but with a ridge axis extending into the region. Radiational cooling is expected, though how idealized is up for questioning. Forecast soundings do show a surface-based inversion but it`s strength is seemingly tempered, possibly by a little bit of cirrus level moisture as very broad upper jet develops across the Gulf States. Did go a bit below guidance but not as much as if idealized cooling was expected. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure slides offshore on Tuesday as a shortwave progresses eastward across the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians. Low pressure trailing the shortwave will produce clouds and showers across the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday night. Southerly flow ahead of the mid level shortwave will bring some weak moisture advection to the area on Tuesday evening. This is likely to be insufficient for rain chances across the northern tier of our forecast area, but isolated showers may be present as far south as NC-24 in central and eastern NC. Zonal flow aloft will accompany weak ridging over the southeastern US on Wednesday. Southerly surface flow and westerlies above will provide a consistent source of warm air advection. Afternoon highs should warm quite nicely with mid and upper 70s likely across the region. Remaining mild overnight (despite the dry air mass and good cooling potential) with lows in the low to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry and warm weather continues late this week primarily due to a mid level ridge just to our south. A developing low over the central US will begin to move eastward this weekend and will bring the next chance of rain. Uncertainty remains high with regards to the timing and position of this low. Cluster analyses highlight differences in a weakening shortwave as the main culprit of forecast uncertainty at this time. For now, the low end rain chances appear plausible as there could also be a chance of localized showers near the coast both Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High confidence in VFR as cool high pressure builds. Post- frontal high pressure will bring a NW wind today that will collapse to light and variable tonight. It will be too dry for any fog development. Extended Outlook....VFR conditions should continue through the period. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Winds will be NW today following last evening frontal passage. And although steep low level lapse rates will develop for some gustiness the overall boundary layer wind fields will be weak enough to preclude any headlines. As the high`s center moves just north of the area tonight winds decrease dramatically. Spectral plots show no significant swell energy with all wave periods sub-7 seconds. Tuesday through Friday... Pressure patterns will be generally weak over the next several days. Light and variable winds turn southerly on Tuesday with an area of low pressure passing to our north. Westerly winds develop on Wednesday as high pressure builds to our southeast. Light and variable winds on Thursday will give way to southerly return flow on Friday ahead of a develop low over the central US. Onshore flow on Friday may be accompanied by a few showers and an enhanced sea breeze with periodic gusts during the afternoon. Seas generally 1-2 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1251962 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:00 AM 17.Nov.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1242 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1242 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 - Patchy fog potential persists on most mornings this week. It may become locally dense, especially in rural areas. - Other than a low chance for showers along the Treasure Coast on Tuesday and Wednesday, a long stretch of dry weather is forecast. - Temperatures remain generally above normal over the next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1242 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 -----------Synoptic Overview----------- Just south of a large rex block over northeastern N America, quasi-zonal flow is in place across the Southeast U.S. this morning. Upstream, you find a shortwave ridge across the Mississippi Valley, out ahead of additional jet stream energy on the U.S. West Coast. As the rex block weakens to our north and additional energy pushes into the Western U.S., mean ridging is strongly favored to form this week across the Eastern U.S. Above-normal H5 heights arrive over Florida beginning tomorrow, lasting through the remainder of this forecast period. Total moisture values remain near normal on most days, but H85 temperatures warm above normal from Tuesday onward. At the surface, a weakening cold front is moving southward and will arrive in Central Florida over the next 6 hours. The front will dissipate overhead by tonight, with no appreciable cold-air advection anticipated. High pressure is forecast to push from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas by Tuesday afternoon, allowing onshore breezes to develop locally. High pressure should remain firmly in control of our weather through the end of the week as disturbances are deflected well north of the state. By the weekend, a rather complex upper-air pattern across the mid-latitudes lends to lower confidence in the timing of our next cold front. There is a signal for a front to approach the state around Sunday or Monday of next week, but with the polar jet remaining along the U.S.-Canadian border, this front doesn`t appear to be very impactful. Looking ahead, the MJO is forecast to swing from phase 6 to 7 over the 2-3 weeks. This supports a fairly typical Easterly QBO / La Nina pattern, characterized by a baroclinic zone across the Ohio Valley and positive height anomalies over the Gulf and SW Atlantic ("the Southeast ridge"). In this scenario, one would anticipate warmer and drier-than-normal conditions over Florida during much of this period. A small number (around 20%) of 16/12Z ensemble members show a significant cold front reaching Florida just after Thanksgiving. However, guidance hints at an MJO progression into phase 8 as we move deeper into December. Phase 8 would increase the potential for stronger cold fronts reaching Florida. -------Sensible Weather & Impacts------- Today - Wednesday... The advancing cold front becomes ill-defined over the next 24 hours as it stalls over Central FL. There is a slight uptick in moisture along this feature, which supports the potential for some patchy dense fog this morning. The signal for fog is strongest west of Orlando over the next few hours, where the probabilities of visibility < 1 SM reach 20-30%. Any showers with the front should hold offshore today, leaving us with a mix of clouds/sun and seasonably warm afternoon temperatures. The return of modest onshore flow early this week eventually drags enough moisture toward the state for low (20%) shower chances from Tuesday into early Wednesday, mainly along the Treasure Coast. Highs each day range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Lows should turn a bit milder, with mid/upper 50s near and north of Orlando to the low/mid 60s at the coast. Light winds and seasonable moisture combine for the continued potential for patchy fog each night/early morning. Thursday - Next Monday... With deep-layer high pressure over the state late this week and into the weekend, more quiet and warm weather is forecast once any patchy morning fog burns off. Highs reach the upper 70s to mid 80s with lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s. A cluster of guidance supports a cold frontal passage late Sunday or next Monday, but moisture values look unfavorable for notable rain chances. In fact, the EPS and GEFS members give the majority of Central Florida only a 10% chance (or less) of 1/2" of rain through Thanksgiving. && .MARINE... Issued at 1242 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 A weak cold front settles over the local Atlantic before dissipating tonight. Lingering moisture along the front will give a low chance for a few showers through early Wednesday. Behind the front early this week, high pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley migrates toward the Carolina coastline. Winds and seas remain generally favorable for nearshore boating this week. N winds 8-12 KT with seas up to 3 FT today. Winds turn NE to E from Tuesday through the middle of the week, up to 10 KT, with seas generally 1-3 FT except up to 4 FT in the Gulf Stream. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1242 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 A weak, dry front will push south across the terminals today. Ahead of the front, areas of fog/stratus is forecast to develop toward sunrise. The greatest probabilities from HREF for MVFR/IFR conds will be at LEE with potential for the fog and stratus to spread E/SE toward SFB/MCO. Have maintained TEMPO groups at these sites from 11- 14Z for IFR vis/cig at KLEE and MVFR conditions at KSFB/KMCO/KISM. Any fog/stratus should quickly lift after sunrise, with VFR conds returning NLT 15Z. Light west winds ahead of the front through sunrise will veer NW 5-7 knots on Mon morning behind the front. Along the coast, winds turn NE 7-10 knots in the afternoon which will spread inland to MCO/SFB by 22Z-23Z before going light and variable Mon night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 78 61 79 61 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 81 62 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 79 64 79 65 / 0 10 10 10 VRB 79 62 80 64 / 0 10 10 10 LEE 80 58 81 59 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 80 60 82 61 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 80 62 81 62 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 79 62 81 63 / 0 10 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1251960 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:54 AM 17.Nov.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1240 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Dense Fog this morning along I-75 corridor from Gainesville southward through Marion County. - Moderate Rip Current Risk at local beaches Today and Tuesday. - Extended Dry Spell this Week. Severe to Extreme Drought Inland Southeast GA & Northern Suwannee Valley. Be very cautious with outdoor flames check for local burning bans. && .NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)... A slowing cold front is pushing through southern GA and will continue to sink southward through the NE FL during the rest of the morning. Like last night, the primary weather challenge will be areas of dense fog development during the predawn hours. Moisture pooling ahead of the front will lead to patchy fog development for areas south of I-10 this morning with dense fog potential highest (40-60%) across Marion, Alachua, and Putnam counties. This will likely will require a Dense Fog Advisory for those areas later on in the morning. Much drier air will filter in behind the front today, pushing humidity to low levels across SE GA and elevating wildfire danger (more in the fire weather section below). That dry air will also lead to mostly sunny skies today and clear skies tonight as high pressure settles just to the north. Light onshore winds will keep the coast cooler today and warmer tonight. Lows at the coast will be in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees while inland lows will feel the chill behind the frontal passage with readings in the low/mid 40s common from the Suwannee Valley northward into SE GA, possibly even touching the upper 30s again. Drier air should limit much in the way of fog formation early Tuesday morning. && .SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday night) High pressure ridging from out of the west will build in on Tuesday and Wednesday over the region resulting in a continuation of dry weather conditions with mostly clear skies and mild winds. Potential for overnight and early morning fog developments through the period. High temperatures will be within the upper 70s and lower 80s through midweek with overnight low temperatures ranging between the lower to mid 50s for inland areas and in the lower 60s along the coastline. && .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday) Dry weather conditions will continue through the end of the week with a potential for showers on Saturday, primarily over inland southeast Georgia, as high pressure formerly building over the region moves off to the south and east establishing a more southwesterly flow ahead of an advancing frontal boundary pressing into the forecast area from out of the northwest. Temperatures will remain above the seasonal average, nearing daily record highs, for the end of the week and through the weekend. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 A dry cold front will move through the region this morning. Patchy dense fog is expected to develop ahead of this front at terminal south of I-10. KGNV, KVQQ, and KSGJ may be impacted by fog at IFR to LIFR levels between 09z-12z this morning. Despite the frontal passage, winds will be light given weak gradients with incoming high pressure behind the front. There will be a shift to the northeast with peak sustained winds around 8-12 knots with the the high-end of that range at coastal terminals. && .MARINE... Winds will turn onshore and trend lighter today leading to fair maritime conditions under the influence of high pressure which will continue throughout the week. A southerly wind shift followed by a shift to offshore flow will take place later this week as the high pressure ridge axis moves south and cold front begins to sharpen well to the west. The southerly flow will push warm, moist air across the waters which may lead to patchy marine fog in the nearshore waters to end the week. The aforementioned sharpening front may move through the waters as early as Sunday morning but more likely to pass next Monday. RIP CURRENTS: Though winds will trend onshore, elevating risk, low surf heights will keep risk toward low-end of Moderate today and Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry air following the frontal passage will settle in over the region bringing minRH levels down into the 20s and lower over inland southeast Georgia and inland portions of northeast Florida north of I-10. Winds will remain mostly mild and variable through the day resulting in lower mixing heights and poor daytime dispersion values. Conditions will be borderline today for elevated fire danger, especially for areas near and north of Waycross, however the low wind speeds will hold the product off from being issued. MinRH values will rise as the week progresses, however dry weather will persist through Friday. && .CLIMATE... Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites... WED 11/19 THU 11/20 FRI 11/21 SAT 11/22 Jacksonville, FL (JAX) 84/1958 86/1988 84/1991 84/1973 Craig Exec Arpt (CRG) 82/1984 86/1988 82/2004 81/1997 Gainesville, FL (GNV) 90/1906 88/1906 86/1973 86/1906 Alma, Georgia (AMG) 82/1942 83/1942 83/2011 83/2011 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 74 39 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 69 57 73 57 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 76 49 79 54 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 75 60 78 58 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 81 49 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 80 51 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1251961 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:54 AM 17.Nov.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1249 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A dry cold front shifts offshore tonight. Cooler high pressure then builds back in from the northwest early this week, with another quick moving front pushing through the area by mid-week. Behind this system, a warming trend will bring increasing temperatures through late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 640 PM Sunday... Key Messages - Brief cooldown tonight into Monday night A cold front is progressing through ENC, about to shift offshore. Behind the front, strong CAA will send temperatures falling into the upper 30s to mid 40s, which is right around, or slightly below, normal for this time of year. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... As of 145 PM Sunday... High pressure will build in from the west through the day Monday, which will eventually lead to much lighter winds. However, continued CAA and enhanced mixing during the morning and early afternoon hours will combine with a residually modest pressure gradient to support several hours of breezy winds from just after sunrise through around 1-2pm. The continued CAA behind the front will also help to keep temps down much lower compared to today, with highs topping out in the upper 50s to near 60. With high pressure squarely overhead Monday night, winds are expected to be very light, setting up decent radiational cooling conditions. Normally this type of setup would favor going below blended guidance. However, the potential for mid/high clouds suggests radiational cooling effects may be tampered some. Additionally, bias-corrected blended guidance is already below the 25th percentile of all guidance. Lows around the 25th percentile of guidance appears reasonable in this setup, especially given the potential for high clouds, so no change from guidance was made. Regardless, widespread low to mid 30s appears likely. The coldest locations with limited cloudcover could see lows fall below freezing. The areas most likely to get close to, or below, freezing are the same counties where the frost/freeze program has ended for 2025, therefore no headlines are anticipated. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 PM Sunday... Key Messages: - Extended period of above normal temperatures appears likely from mid-week on - Stronger frontal system possible late week/early next weekend Another cold front will cross ENC Tuesday night, but this one also looks fairly moisture starved with only slight chance PoPs in the forecast for northern zones. Guidance has trended towards stalling this boundary across the region through the later half of the week, but this is only expected to bring increased cloud cover with no rain chances expected. Temperatures will reach the low to mid 70s Wednesday through Saturday. Next weekend looks to bring a stronger frontal system that will bring a better chance of rain to the area (20-30%). && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1230 AM Monday... Key Messages: - VFR conditions expected through the TAF period - NW winds gusting to 15-20 knots today High pressure builds into the region through the TAF period bringing mainly clear skies. NW winds will gust around 15-20 kt from mid morning through the afternoon, then will quickly become light/calm early this evening as we decouple. Outlook: VFR conditions prevail through Tuesday with high pressure building across the region. A couple of weak systems transit the area Tuesday night through Thursday that could bring isolated showers across rtes with lower cigs, however guidance keeps VFR. && .MARINE... As of 145 PM Sunday... Key Messages - Elevated to strong winds to continue into this evening - Elevated seas to last into Monday - Elevated winds and seas potentially return late in the week West to southwest winds of 15-25kt are ongoing at this time, with higher gusts. The strongest winds are currently impacting the warmer coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet, where gusts of 30-35kt have been observed at times. Winds may lay down a bit over the next few hours, but a cold front will move through this evening, with a renewed round of enhanced mixing potentially supporting a continued risk of 25-35kt gusts. In light of this, the Gale Warning has been extended out through 10pm this evening. Elsewhere, wind gusts look to hold in the 25-30kt range, and SCAs will continue there. Winds will lay down more substantially by Monday afternoon, and especially by Monday night as high pressure builds in. For the coastal waters north of Cape Lookout, seas of 4-8ft are expected to continue through tonight, then lay down to 2-4ft by Monday night. South of Lookout, seas of 4-7ft this afternoon are expected to lay down to 2-4ft by Monday afternoon. Outlook: High pressure moves offshore on Tuesday, with southerly flow developing. Winds will then flip back and forth between south and north as a couple of weak fronts move through. At this time, these fronts are not expected to support 25kt, or higher, winds. By late in the week, strengthening southerly flow may support the next round of 25kt+ winds and 6ft+ seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 1230 AM Monday... Key Messages: - Dry conditions with minimum relative humidity around 20-35% this afternoon - Wind gusts around 15-20 mph today High pressure will build into the area today bringing a very dry airmass. After a night with only moderate RH recoveries around 50-60%, minimum RH values are expected to be around 20-25% across much of the coastal plain and 25-35% closer to the coast this afternoon. NW winds are expected to gust around 15-20 mph with the higher end from mid morning once deeper mixing commences to mid day, then gradients gradually relax with the gustiness gradually diminishing through the afternoon. Although minimum RHs will meet criteria for an Increased Fire Danger Statement, the winds will remain below the threshold and will forgo issuing an IFD. High pressure will become centered over the area tonight and Tuesday with a dry airmass remaining in place and expect minimum RH values around 25-35% away from the coast but winds will be light at mainly less than 10 mph. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ150-152. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ154- 156-158. && $$ |
| #1251959 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:33 AM 17.Nov.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1224 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Chilly and windy conditions continue through Monday and Tuesday with decreasing winds Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure settles in. Quick moving frontal system arrives Friday into the weekend bringing a period of unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Key Messages: * Windy with falling temperatures through tonight Isolated showers continue to move over parts of the interior this afternoon and are expected to continue to do so through the rest of today. Mostly light rain is associated with these, with some snow showers possible towards the higher elevations (Berkshires, parts of the Worcester Hills). Not much is expected to accumulate, though; at most, a localized total of an inch or two towards the Berkshires. Gusty winds are expected to continue through the afternoon, primarily between 30 and 35 kts, with isolated and infrequent higher gusts possible towards the Berkshires. Temperatures continue to fall through the rest of the day and will dip into the 20s and low 30s overnight as 925 mb temperatures reach -4C. Latest guidance indicates 850 mb winds around 40 kts for much of the region overnight. Gusty westerly winds between 25-35 kts will likely continue into tonight even with the lack of diurnal mixing, leading to wind chill values in the teens and low 20s across southern New England. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Key Messages: * Breezy with below normal temperatures and a continued mix of sun and clouds The upper level low dominating the latest pattern will continue to move across New England Monday, shifting more NE heading into Tuesday morning. Temperatures at 925 mb improve to -2C during the day Monday; highs in the upper 30s and low 40s will be supported as a result. Gusty winds will once again be supported by good mixing up to 850 mb. As the trough moves into the Maritimes, surface low pressure moves off with it and high pressure continues to creep its way towards the region. The gradient between these two centers is expected to weaken very slightly going into Tuesday morning, so while breezy conditions are still expected going into Monday night, gusts should be more limited to around 25 kts over the higher elevations, Cape Cod, and the Islands (should be below 20 kts elsewhere). Dry conditions due to a lack of forcing and cooling aloft will continue through this period with a mix of sun and clouds. Lows Monday night are expected to once again settle into the 20s and low 30s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Messages: * Dry and blustery Tue with below normal temps * Less wind Wed-Thu but still cooler than normal * Unsettled weather with milder temps Fri-Sat Upper low continues to move northeast into the Maritimes into Tuesday. Overall the upper air pattern deamplifies into zonal flow midweek before another shortwave disturbance arrives by the weekend. Breezy conditions continue into Tuesday behind departing surface low. Much drier airmass with PWATS falling well below 0.5" Wed-Thu as high pres moves into the region. Weak shortwave moves through Thu but global ensembles have continued to trend further south with the bulk of the precipitation. The pattern becomes a bit more complex this weekend as a pronounced northern stream dives south across the Great Lakes. Temps will remain below normal through Thu with highs mostly in the 40s, then milder conditions anticipated Fri and Sat. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z Update... Through 12z... VFR, but scattered snow showers with lower conditions in the Berkshires. A few flurries possible in the interior until 08z. Today through Tuesday...High confidence. VFR through the period, but areas of MVFR cigs in the Berkshires today. W-NW gusts 25-35 kt diminishing overnight. W gusts 20-25 kt Tue. KBOS Terminal...High confidence. KBDL Terminal...High confidence. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday through Thursday: VFR. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. RA likely. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Gale Warnings Continue into Mon and Mon Night. Gusts to 35-40 kt with sustained W winds from 20 to 35 kt are expected to continue into tonight and Monday after a cold front passed through this morning. Seas continue to build into tonight, peaking at 12-14 ft over the southern waters. Winds will remain gusty into part of tomorrow night as well as seas begin to decrease. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ231>235-237- 251. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ250-254>256. && $$ |
| #1251958 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:21 AM 17.Nov.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1111 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1037 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Patchy to widespread areas of dense fog Monday possible morning. - Above normal temperatures expected through most of this week. - Rain threat returns late week into the weekend. - Possibly hazardous marine conditions Thurs/Fri. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1037 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 The main story of the short term period will be the potential for widespread dense fog early Monday morning. NBM probabilities continued to rise with each run, with a good chunk of the area sitting with probabilities of visibility less than a mile ~40%. Additionally HREF probabilities of visibility less than a mile upwards of 60-70% for some areas, mainly western areas of the CWA. Knowing all of this, went with a Dense Fog Advisory from Midnight through 9AM Monday for all areas west of Coastal Mississippi. Outside of fog chances, high pressure at the surface centered to our east will keep conditions rather quiet through the short term. This combined with upper level ridging allows for well above normal temperatures for this time of year, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. This is a good 10 degrees above climate normals. Precipitation is nowhere to be found in the short term period. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Sunday night) Issued at 1037 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 The start to the long term period won`t see much change from the short term period as our surface high pressure east of us continues to hang around. While yesterday guidance was showing our upper level riding starting to flatten out by Wednesday, today global guidance is actually showing the ridge strengthening some. This helps Wednesday high temperatures reach the hottest of the week, with many areas seeing the mid 80s. By Thursday we see our next potential weather maker take shape out west as an upper level shortwave trough moves through the desert SW and slides up towards the Midwest. Guidance has been pretty all over the place with this system. While the surface low will be well to our north, the associated cold front does look to have a chance to sweep across our area. The GFS and Euro are in a little disagreement on timing of this front, by a good 24 hours. So knowing that, not going to make any adjustments to the forecast late in the period. Current forecast has PoPs starting to increase late Thursday night and peak during the day Friday around 60-70%. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1037 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Prevailing VFR for all terminals which will hold through the rest of Sunday. Multiple guidance with good probabilities of visibility less than a mile Monday morning. Fog looks like it could get more widespread than the previous two nights, so the majority of terminals have a good chance for IFR to LIFR visibilities in that timeframe just before sunrise. Fog should burn off after sunrise and conditions return to VFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 1037 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Surface high pressure will generally remain east of the local area through early week. This will keep flow oriented onshore and fairly light through mid week. Late week, the pressure gradient will tighten as a surface low develops over West Texas and moves through the southern portion of the Central Plains. Onshore winds will strengthen in response to this. Guidance suggests winds of around 15- 20 knots in open Gulf waters Thursday and Friday which would subsequently bring seas to 3-6 feet. Model consistency has not been the greatest with this late week system, but regardless an increase in flow seems likely. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 57 79 59 80 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 60 82 62 83 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 55 78 58 79 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 61 80 64 81 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 57 77 61 76 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 55 78 56 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. GM...None. MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for MSZ068>071. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1251957 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:18 AM 17.Nov.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1205 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1203 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 - Mainly dry and seasonable conditions will remain in place across South Florida through at least the early portion of this week. - Patchy fog is possible this morning over interior portions of South FL. - Above normal temperatures may return to portions of South Florida towards the middle and the end of the week as mid level ridging strengthens over the region. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1203 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 Zonal flow remains established over South Florida through the first couple days of the work-week as surface high pressure remains across the Southeast CONUS. To the north, a weakening frontal boundary remains across Northern Florida early this morning and this feature will slowly try to progress southward through Tuesday. In response, north-northwest flow will prevail across the area today, shifting more northerly on Tuesday morning and finally northeasterly by Tuesday afternoon as this weak boundary dissipates over the area. With an abundance of dry air in place throughout most of the atmospheric column, (PWAT values hovering between 0.7 and 0.9 inches), the sensible weather across South Florida will remain dry and pleasant throughout the first half of the week. High temperatures will remain right around climatological normals today with highs in the lower 80s. On Tuesday, most areas should remain in the lower 80s however portions of interior South Florida may peak in the mid or even upper 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1203 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 Fairly benign and quiet sensible weather prevails through the long term forecast period through next Monday. Mid-level ridging builds across the Gulf by the mid-week timeframe which should keep South Florida firmly in an easterly regime for the Wednesday-Saturday timeframe. Slightly increased moisture associated with an ex-frontal boundary will linger on Wednesday, which could support isolated shower activity embedded in the easterly flow along the immediate east coast. With an abundance of dry air remaining in place across the mid to upper levels, any shower that does develop heading into the middle of the week will remain low topped and rather short lived. As the mid level ridge strengthens across the region, easterly surface flow will increase as the pressure gradient tightens leading to breezy conditions over the local Atlantic waters and along the southeast coastline. Through the end of the week and weekend timeframe, high pressure remains in control of the sensible weather across South Florida with PWATs remaining around 1 inch or less. This should continue to support dry and mainly sunny conditions through the weekend. Towards the end of the period, the next frontal boundary will be approaching from the north which is expected to bring the next pattern change to shake things up. In the meantime, we enjoy the sunshine and breezy easterly flow (which could very well continue into NEXT week as well). With the increasing easterly surface wind flow, temperatures will slowly start moderating heading into the middle of the week. High temperatures Wednesday through the weekend will generally range from the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas to the mid to upper 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 VFR through the 00Z TAF period. Light and variable winds through late morning becoming NE 5-10 kts during the afternoon, with a westerly Gulf breeze at APF. && .MARINE... Issued at 1203 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 A gentle northwesterly breeze will prevail across most of the local waters today. Winds are expected to veer to the north-northeast by late Tuesday. Wave heights across all local waters will remain 3 feet or less over the next few days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 82 66 83 70 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 83 62 83 66 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 83 66 84 70 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 81 64 82 69 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 80 67 81 70 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 81 67 83 71 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 84 66 85 70 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 82 66 83 70 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 82 66 83 70 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 81 64 83 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
