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| #1275022 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:36 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 729 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added a Heat Advisory for the Albemarle Sound counties of interior NE NC. Otherwise, forecast thinking remains fairly similar. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Heat and humidity persists today across the south, along with isolated to scattered showers and storms area-wide late in the day and into tonight. 2) An unsettled pattern continues through the remainder of the week. However, uncertainty remains high. && .DISCUSSION... As of 700 AM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity persists today across the south, along with isolated to scattered showers and storms area-wide late in the day and into tonight. Early morning WX analysis indicates a W-NW flow aloft with the Bermuda high now getting shunted farther south to the Gulf coast and Bahamas. The latest radar indicates a decaying MCS affecting the northern 1/2 of the area, with a series of trailing systems upstream over OH/WV and another farther NW IA/IL. With the airmass overturned from yesterday`s widespread convection across VA/MD, today`s SVR potential is highly uncertain. Debris clouds are likely to persist across at least the northern 1/2 of the CWA through late morning/early aftn which will limit or at least delay instability. The CAMs, which generally did poorly yesterday show varying solutions for this aftn/evening- the 06Z RRFS has backed off with an organized line of storms through the CWA from late aftn into the early evening, now suggesting the main event could be this evening/tonight (which matches closer to the next shortwave aloft). SPC has most of the area in a Marginal SVR risk, primarily for damaging wind gusts, as shear is decent for August (25-30 kt) with a Slight Risk just making it into our far NW. The SPC discussion does note the high uncertainty given the current MCS and how this might affect aftn conditions. In addition, a Marginal ERO is in effect for most of the region (with a Slight nudging into the far NW). The sfc winds are a bit more from the W-SW today, and given this, decided to hoist a small Heat Advisory for the interior NE NC zones along the Albemarle sound where sfc dew pts should be several degrees higher, along with highs into the mid 90s, leading to heat indices of 105+ for a few hrs. Elsewhere, highs will generally be in the lower 90s (upper 80s/around 90F far N with heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s). KEY MESSAGE 2...An unsettled pattern continues through the remainder of the week, trending to a cooler and somewhat drier start to the weekend. However, uncertainty remains high. WNW flow aloft continues Wed through the remainder of the week as a ridge aloft is expected to continue through late in the week as an upper level ridge builds across the central CONUS, and eventually shifts E-SE across the deep south. Meanwhile, a trough lingers across New England and eastern Canada. Expect an active pattern with the daily potential for isolated to scattered storms each afternoon/evening. SPC has maintained a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe storms across southern portions of the FA Wed. However, confidence continues to remain low given uncertainty in aforementioned MCS timing and impacts. For now, have largely kept NBM PoPs (30-35% SW to 15-25% NE) to account for the potential for isolated to scattered storms. Beyond Wed, the pattern remains similar with mostly only a slight chance (15-25%) for a few isolated showers or storms on Thu (and only general thunder risk) with a better chance on Fri (30-40% PoPs). Outside of convection, temps remain near the warm side of normal with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Wed and Thu and upper 80s to lower 90s Fri. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 715 AM EDT Tuesday... Primarily VFR conditions prevail early this morning aside from some local pockets of fog and low stratus over interior SE VA, though none of this has affected any of the main terminals. Mid/high clouds from decaying MCS prevail for the northern 1/2 of the region through late morning, with perhaps a SHRA at SBY through -15Z (have a PROB30), but remaining dry elsewhere. Otherwise, winds will be mainly from the W today at less than 10 kt (ORF could see a shift to the NE for a few hrs this aftn). Storm coverage later today is highly uncertain, but still have mainly 20-30% later in the aftn/early evening, then rising slightly into tonight, so have included PROB30 groups for TSRA at RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG between 22Z through 02Z (though this may need to be trended even later). Showers/storms generally diminishing after 06Z. Outlook: Expect predominate VFR conditions prevail through Thu. However, daily low-end chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms exists each day. Along with this comes a chance for early morning stratus/ground fog each late night/early morning Wednesday through Friday AM. && .MARINE... As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Message: - Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected to prevail through most of the week. Morning weather analysis shows high pressure continuing to sit well offshore, with a weak surface low over New England. The pressure gradient from these two systems continues to remain weak but just strong enough to keep the winds out of the W around 10kt with some gusts around 15 kt. Seas this morning are around 1-2ft across the bay and 2-3ft across the ocean. Through the morning and into the afternoon of today, winds will shift out of the WSW and remain around 10 kt with gusts nearing 15kt. Seas will remain quite benign and not change much through the day and stay around 1-2ft in the bay and 2-3 ft across the ocean. In terms of storm chances for this afternoon, models continue to back off on scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. This is due to the possibility of cloud cover lingering from this mornings ongoing convection to the west. However, if the clouds are able to clear and daytime heating is able to take place the threat for a strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out. The main threat with these storms would be strong winds greater than 34kt. Greater convective coverage is possible on Wednesday but with low confidence on the details. Otherwise, benign marine conditions are expected to prevail through the end of the week. By the end of the week a cold front will gradually approach and shift winds to the N-NE by late Friday into next weekend. Models are generally keeping the winds rather light, but if the front actually pushes south of the waters, this would potentially bring SCAs, but uncertainty is high at this range. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ015>017-031-032. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1275021 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:36 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 632 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 632 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 - Heat indices around 100-107 degrees are expected today, increasing to 105-111 degrees by Friday. - A Moderate risk of rip currents returns to Florida beaches Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 632 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 The overall forecast for today remains on track. The 00z Rip Current Risk probability guidance is now showing a Moderate risk for the Florida beaches starting Wednesday afternoon where we expect slightly higher west-southwesterly winds and significant wave heights. This Moderate risk will continue through Thursday before settling back to Low. /22 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1204 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Through Thursday night, an upper level shortwave trough digging off the East Coast shifts an upper high over the northern Gulf Coast, westward, to over the northwestern Gulf Coast. A surface high over the eastern Gulf shifts west to over the central Gulf in response, with a drier airmass over the Gulf (precipitable h20 values less than 1.5") shifting north over the northern Gulf and Lower Mississippi River Valley. This displaces the moist airmass over the forecast area eastward to varying extents, depending upon the model. Add in an upper level shortwave trough passing over the northeast side of the upper ridge Wednesday, and a dry, subsidence caused day Tuesday sees isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern half of the forecast area Wednesday. Thursday, PoPs drop to isolated, mainly over areas southeast of I-65 as moisture levels drop and upper subsidence returns and builds east a bit, even as the upper high shifts west. Temperatures see a bit of an increase with dropping moisture levels, especially over the western half of the forecast area along with upper subsidence increasing a bit with the building upper high. High temperatures away from the coast rise from the 92-97 degree range Tuesday rise into the 94 to 99 degree range Thursday. Along the coast, high temperatures around 90 are expected through mid week. Heat indices rise from the 100-107 degree range over most of the forecast area Tuesday rise into the 105 to 110 degree range Thursday. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed Wednesday, though the extent is hard to pin down at this time. Friday though the weekend, The upper ridge centered over the northwestern Gulf coast shifts north, to over the Southern/Central Plains, surface high pressure shifts to over the Southern Plains in response. As the upper high moves off over the central Conus, increased moisture over the eastern half of the Southeast shifts west over the region (and the forecast area), but an upper building east over the Southeast will keep good upper subsidence over the region, helping to limit PoPs to isolated to low end scattered at best over the forecast area into the coming week. Temperatures see a small uptick into the weekend, along with Heat Indices.. Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a general Low Risk is expected into mid week, with the onshore flow less organized. An uptick to a low Moderate is indicated for the end of the week, especially over our Florida beaches. /16 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through tonight. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Light southwesterly to westerly winds will occur tonight through the remainder of the week as a surface high pressure area remains across the eastern Gulf. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 92 76 93 77 / 10 0 20 0 Pensacola 91 79 93 79 / 20 10 20 0 Destin 90 80 91 80 / 10 0 10 0 Evergreen 94 75 94 75 / 10 10 30 10 Waynesboro 96 75 97 75 / 10 0 10 10 Camden 92 75 93 76 / 10 0 20 0 Crestview 94 75 95 75 / 10 0 30 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1275019 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:27 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 622 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 621 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 - Unseasonably hot high temperatures through the forecast. - Dry weather, with isolated convection possible on Friday. - Slightly adverse winds Wednesday through Friday for mariners. - Elevated risk of rip currents for the second half of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1004 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will be positioned on the western periphery of 500 mb high pressure that will remain centered roughly over Louisiana during the forecast period. This will produce dry weather for a majority of the next several days. However, a slight chance of isolated convection exists for Friday, as an inverted mid-level trough sneaks under the 500 mb high and moves into extreme northeast Mexico. Temperature-wise, daily high temperatures will inch up a degree or two each successive day into well above normal levels. This will cause a Moderate to Major Heat Risk across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley to become Major to Extreme as the week progresses, eventually easing for the weekend back into Moderate to Major territory. Finally, with a gradually tightening pressure gradient along the Lower Texas Coast expected, a Moderate to High Risk of rip currents at the local beaches will likely occur daily. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Mostly clear skies and light southeast winds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Light southeast winds will become moderate to breezy later this morning into the afternoon. Winds are expected to slowly decrease later this evening into tonight. VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1004 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 It continues to be expected that the pressure gradient over the western Gulf of America will become enhanced during the forecast period. Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas initially will become moderate to breezy winds and moderate to slightly adverse seas beginning around the middle of the week. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and possibly Small Craft Advisory will be needed Wednesday through Friday to account for the anticipated stronger winds and higher seas. Marine conditions should then improve for the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 96 81 97 82 / 10 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 99 77 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 102 81 104 81 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 103 79 104 78 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 81 90 82 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 96 80 97 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1275020 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:27 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 622 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 621 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 - Unseasonably hot high temperatures through the forecast. - Dry weather, with isolated convection possible on Friday. - Slightly adverse winds Wednesday through Friday for mariners. - Elevated risk of rip currents for the second half of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1004 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will be positioned on the western periphery of 500 mb high pressure that will remain centered roughly over Louisiana during the forecast period. This will produce dry weather for a majority of the next several days. However, a slight chance of isolated convection exists for Friday, as an inverted mid-level trough sneaks under the 500 mb high and moves into extreme northeast Mexico. Temperature-wise, daily high temperatures will inch up a degree or two each successive day into well above normal levels. This will cause a Moderate to Major Heat Risk across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley to become Major to Extreme as the week progresses, eventually easing for the weekend back into Moderate to Major territory. Finally, with a gradually tightening pressure gradient along the Lower Texas Coast expected, a Moderate to High Risk of rip currents at the local beaches will likely occur daily. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Mostly clear skies and light southeast winds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Light southeast winds will become moderate to breezy later this morning into the afternoon. Winds are expected to slowly decrease later this evening into tonight. VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1004 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 It continues to be expected that the pressure gradient over the western Gulf of America will become enhanced during the forecast period. Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas initially will become moderate to breezy winds and moderate to slightly adverse seas beginning around the middle of the week. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and possibly Small Craft Advisory will be needed Wednesday through Friday to account for the anticipated stronger winds and higher seas. Marine conditions should then improve for the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 96 81 97 82 / 10 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 99 77 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 102 81 104 81 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 103 79 104 78 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 81 90 82 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 96 80 97 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1275018 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:24 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 722 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 720 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 - A Heat Advisory is in effect today for all of South Florida. - Heat remains the primary hazard through next weekend. - Greatest rain chances for all of south Florida on Thursday. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 135 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Deep layer ridging will prevail across the Deep South and Florida over the next several days. The periodic amplification of the eastern CONUS trough will play a role in the position of the ridge axis which will have implications for low-level flow patterns and temperature forecasts. Over the next few days, global ensembles generally agree that while the core of the northern stream will remain mostly north of the CONUS, weak shortwaves will advect southeast through the Plains and Midwest. These waves will result in a slight amplification to the eastern CONUS trough Wed. into Thurs. This will push the ridge axis from over Florida into the Gulf. By the end of the week, the combination of a shortwave moving into the western CONUS and another moving through the Northeast will sharply amplify the ridge across then central and southern CONUS, including the Deep South and Florida. While there is quite a bit of disagreement in the ensembles regarding the timing and intensity of the Northeast shortwave, the general pattern across our region remains similar regardless. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 135 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 The aforementioned ridge, which ranks near the top end of climo for this time of year, will also result in deep layer temperatures well above normal. And while PWATs are generally lower than climatology due to the presence of the Saharan Air Layer, the low-level seabreeze flow will result in relatively high dewpoints along the coasts. Though it will be drier across the interior, actual temperatures will be higher without the `relief` of a seabreeze. This all means that we`re likely to reach heat advisory criteria (> 105-108) across all of south Florida, either due to higher humidity or higher temperatures. The westward advection of the ridge axis and west/south shift of the SAL may result in actual and apparent temperatures a few degrees cooler on Wednesday, though we may still flirt with heat advisory conditions at least for a few areas across south Florida. As far as rain chances are concerned, the background easterly flow will result in showers/storms being most likely across the interior in the afternoon, shifting towards the west coast in the evening. Though this pattern is expected, the SAL will likely act to reduce coverage and intensity across all of South Florida both afternoons. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 135 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Thursday will probably be the `coolest` and `wettest` of the period as the ridge axis will be furthest west and will be awaiting the northern stream shortwave to begin the amplification of the ridge pattern. It`ll still be hot, with highs generally in the middle 90s and heat indices nearing advisory levels, though there will probably be fewer upper 90 degree readings. With at least some component of northerly flow expected on Thursday, we`ll likely see the breezes pinned closer to the coast. However, we`ll also be more likely to see storms advect into the region from central Florida late in the day. Overall, coverage is expected to be highest on Thursday. The end of the week and into the weekend will feature the presence of the SAL once again and anomalous heights. Essentially another period of warmer and drier than normal conditions are expected. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 723 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 VFR expected to prevail at all terminals during the next 24 hours. L/V flow will shift to the ESE around 10kt after 15-016Z, except for a westerly wind at APF with afternoon Gulf breezes. L/V flow returns this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 135 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Light winds and low seas are expected through the week. Daily wind increases to around 10 knots are expected in the seabreeze zone, as well as a light chop. Shower and thunderstorm activity will remain fairly isolated and mostly limited to the morning hours for the east coast and the evening for the Gulf. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 79 93 80 / 10 0 40 10 West Kendall 93 77 93 76 / 10 0 50 10 Opa-Locka 93 79 94 79 / 10 0 40 10 Homestead 93 79 93 79 / 0 0 30 10 Fort Lauderdale 91 81 92 80 / 10 0 40 10 N Ft Lauderdale 92 80 93 80 / 10 0 50 10 Pembroke Pines 92 80 93 79 / 10 0 50 10 West Palm Beach 93 78 94 78 / 10 0 50 0 Boca Raton 91 79 92 79 / 10 0 50 10 Naples 93 78 91 79 / 10 20 30 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1275017 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 707 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Aviation section was updated for the 12Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A Heat Advisory is in effect for the coastal counties this afternoon as hot and humid conditions make a return. Additional Heat Advisories will likely be required through the week and into the weekend. Extreme Heat Watches/Warnings cannot be ruled out, especially towards the end of the week. - 2) Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop across southeast Georgia and the lower South Carolina Lowcountry, especially near the coast. A few storms may produce damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours this afternoon and evening. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the region late Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A Heat Advisory is in effect for the coastal counties this afternoon as hot and humid conditions make a return. Additional Heat Advisories will likely be required through the week and into the weekend. Extreme Heat Watches/Warnings cannot be ruled out, especially towards the end of the week. Heat headlines are likely into the weekend as heat index values soar into the 100-110 range each afternoon through mid-week and upwards of 115 late in the week. The daily record highs and record high minimum temperatures will likely be challenged at our three climate sites (see Climate Section for more details). Given the very mild overnight periods and minimal coverage of precipitation, there will be few instances of relief from the heat this week and into the weekend. Today and Wednesday: Ridging aloft will dominate over the southeastern states today and Wednesday, with high temperatures each day reaching into the mid 90s. Dew points will surge behind the sea breeze, likely reaching values in the mid to upper 70s. This will yield heat index values as high as 110 generally east of I-95. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the coastal counties today from 11 AM to 8 PM. Another Heat Advisory will likely be required for the same locations on Wednesday. Thursday and Friday: The ridging aloft amplifies towards the end of the week, likely bringing the warmest temperatures of the heat wave. Highs on each day will likely reach into the upper 90s, with a brief moment of touching 100 not out of the question. Heat index values west of I-95 will likely reach 105-108 (Heat Advisory) with locations east of I-95 reaching heat index values as high as 115. Extreme Heat Watches/Warnings may be required for these locations. This Weekend: The center of ridging aloft will shift slightly westward, resulting in a slight downtick of temperatures. However, heat index values are still forecast to reach upwards of 110 along the coastal corridor likely necessitating additional Heat Advisories. KEY MESSAGE 2: Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop across southeast Georgia and the lower South Carolina Lowcountry, especially near the coast. A few storms may produce damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours this afternoon and evening. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the region late Wednesday. Tuesday: A sfc trough should remain across the central Carolinas into GA through this evening. Satellite water vapor shows an MCV over the middle AL/GA this morning, expected to ripple over SE GA this afternoon. In addition, the sfc trough to the west should draw the sea breeze inland this afternoon. Recent run of the HREF indicates that deep convection may begin to develop ahead of the MCV, likely forming several cool pools. Hot and humid conditions across the forecast area will likely yield SBCAPE values between 2500-3000 J/kg. In addition, forecast soundings indicate DCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg. Given the expansive field of DCAPE, the cool pools should travel long distances, potentially interacting with the sea breeze. This interaction should develop scattered to numerous thunderstorms along the coast, especially between Chatham and Charleston counties. The environment featuring moderate instability and DCAPE along with effective bulk shear around 20 kts may support a few severe thunderstorms, producing damaging wind gusts. The severe potential appears the greatest across Chatham, Jasper, Beaufort, and Colleton counties this afternoon. In fact, 0Z GEFS indicates that most of the forecast has a 5-15% neighborhood prob of damaging winds, with in excess of 15% near the mouth of the Savannah River. In addition to the severe risk, multicell storms may produce localize areas of heavy rainfall, with some locations receiving in excess of 3 inches. If a swath of heavy rain occurs over a coastal city, then Flash Flooding may occur. Wednesday: The center of 595 DM ridge is forecast to slide west over the northern Gulf. As a result, NW to SE heights may align over the forecast area. NAM12 and CAMS indicate that at least isolated storms may develop over portions of SE GA Wednesday afternoon. Interestingly, the NAM12 and GFS shows an MCS tracking from the Upstate to the Coastal Plain Wed evening. Given the mid-level heights and lingering elevated instability, the potential for an MCS reaching the forecast appears high enough to increase PoPs Wednesday evening and overnight to at least SCHC. SPC has highlighted this potential severe weather with a Marginal Risk. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 12Z TAFs: The terminals will remain between a broad trough across the central Carolinas and Georgia and high pressure over the western Atlantic. This pattern will yield west-southwest winds across the terminals through the TAF period. The interaction of cold pools from the NW and a sea breeze should spawn scattered to numerous thunderstorms near KSAV, highlighted with a TEMPO from 20-24Z. Coverage of convection near KJZI and KCHS appears a bit less compared to KSAV, TAFs will highlight the primary thunderstorm time window with a PROB30 between 20-24Z. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. && .MARINE... The pressure pattern will support south winds between 15 to 20 kts today, shifting from the southwest tonight. Wave heights are forecast to remain between 2 to 3 ft. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms may push over the nearshore waters late this afternoon and evening. A few of these storms may produce wind gusts in excess of 34 kts, especially the nearshore GA and lower SC waters. Wednesday through Saturday: Conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria this week and into the weekend. A weak coastal trough will set up across the marine waters this week, persisting into the start of the weekend. This set up will keep conditions across the marine waters breezy with southwesterly winds gusting around 15 to 20 knots. 2 to 3 ft seas are expected across the marine zones this week. Coastal Flooding: While elevated tidal cycles are expected this week due to the upcoming perigee and new moon, the south- southwesterly surface flow should keep tidal departures low, limiting the overall coastal flood threat. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: August 11: KCHS: 98/1968 KCXM: 97/1954 August 12: KCHS: 98/1957 KCXM: 98/1998 KSAV: 100/1999 August 13: KCHS: 100/1995 KCXM: 98/1913 KSAV: 98/2010 August 14: KCHS: 102/1995 KSAV: 102/1925 August 15: KCHS: 96/2023 KSAV: 100/1918 Record High Minimum Temperatures: August 10: KCHS: 80/2007 KSAV: 79/2024 August 11: KCHS: 79/1983 KCXM: 82/2021 KSAV: 78/1878 August 12: KCHS: 79/1999 KSAV: 80/1878 August 13: KCHS: 81/2023 KCXM: 83/2023 KSAV: 81/2023 August 14: KCHS: 80/2023 KCXM: 83/2023 KSAV: 80/2023 August 15: KCHS: 78/1995 KCXM: 83/2021 KSAV: 80/1995 August 16: KCHS: 78/2019 KSAV: 78/2019 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ217>219-239>241. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ148>152. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1275016 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 704 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Heat and Humidity Builds this Week through the Weekend. Heat Advisory For Parts of the Area Today. Heat Advisories Possible Each Afternoon and Evening from Wednesday - Widely Scattered Afternoon & Evening TStorms Today- Thursday. A Few Strong Storms Are Possible Across Portions of Southeast GA on - Scattered Afternoon & Evening TStorms Friday - Sunday && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights: - Heat Advisory in effect from Noon to 7PM - Scattered Thunderstorms This Afternoon and Early Evening, more numerous along the Southeast Georgia coast - Brief Strong Storms Possible, Wind Gusts up to 40-50 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours - Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at Northeast Florida Beaches Light southerly winds along the coast less than 10 mph are trending calm inland under some remaining high level clouds. The clouds will thin out over the next few hours with mostly clear skies into sunrise as winds turn southwesterly along the coast. Temperatures in the mid 70s inland and upper 70s to low 80s along the coast will only cool another couple of degrees until dawn. Only very localized shallow ground fog expected the rest of the early morning. Today, mid level ridging aloft will be centered near the NE Gulf waters and stretch across the central FL peninsula. Subsidence underneath the ridge will suppress afternoon convection for much of inland areas along with PWATs under 2.0 inches, while northern and coastal portions of SE GA, thanks to PWATS elevating to 2.0 to 2.25 inches, will see scattered T`storms become numerous along the immediate coast as some shortwave energy aloft passes east southeast from central GA into SC and helps increase lift and instability there as the Atlantic seabreeze hovers along the coastline through the afternoon. Less coverage expected along the NE FL coast especially from Jacksonville southward due to suppression effects from the ridge and less shortwave energy influence aloft. A strong thunderstorm may produce briefly gusty winds 40-50 mph, with locally heavy downpours and frequent lightning. The predominant west to west southwest flow around the surface ridge south of the area and a trough to the northwest will lead to hot temperatures in the mid to upper 90s inland today with mid 90s at the coast as well as the Atlantic seabreeze not likely moving onshore beyond the beachfront communities this afternoon. The hot temperatures and moist, muggy dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will create heat indices well over 100 peaking 108-110 today. Therefore, a heat advisory is in effect from Noon to 7PM today before tempertures and heat indices fall near sunset. Tonight, a few thunderstorms may linger near the coast, before shifting and weakening as they move eastward due to more west to northwest upper level flow. After lingering mid to high level storm clouds disperse by midnight, skies will become mostly clear. Lows will be above normal in the mid 70s inland and the upper 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Daily Isolated to Scattered Afternoon Thunderstorms, some of which could be strong - Heat Index Values near Heat Advisory levels each day with near record high temperatures Wednesday, the area will continue to be influenced by a deep layer high pressure ridge in the Gulf and low pressure troughing along the coast. This will result in prevailing west to northwest flow through the mid levels. Suppressive affects from the ridge aloft and the low amounts of moisture in the lower levels continue to suggest near or below average rain chances, generally in the 20-40 percent range. Main areas of higher POPs will be along the east coast and around the I-10 corridor. Slight rain chances expected in the evening hours, and some lingering weak convection remains possible after midnight but confidence is low. The main concern will be the heat with heat index values near heat advisory with fairly high likelihood of an advisory. Highs in the mid to upper 90s are anticipated. For Thursday, subtle changes occur as the mid level ridge over the Gulf retrogrades toward the north central Gulf, while east coast troughing dips further south, and gradually into our northern zones by late Thursday. Models suggest still a decent chance of showers and storms, about 30-40 percent from I-10 southward, and about 20-30 percent toward inland southeast GA. Isolated storms expected in the evening as well, and there is some potential for overnight activity given the disturbances aloft in the northwesterly flow but for now given low confidence/coverage will advertise 10 percent chance. Of course, little relief from the heat with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Heat indices are likely to reach heat advisory criteria so have medium to high confidence we`ll need an advisory. Each day, a few storms may be strong given steep low level lapse and the fairly high PWAT air. Noted downdraft CAPE of about 700-900 J/kg are seen in NAM BUFR soundings. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Scattered Afternoon/Evening Thunderstorms Each Day - Heat Advisory Potential Each Day. Near record high temperatures - Higher chances for thunderstorms on Friday Surface high pressure ridge continues to push south of the area Friday into the weekend, as prefrontal troughing and a weak front move south along the east coast. Low level troughing is noted in guidance over our north parts of the forecast area Saturday into Sunday. It looks like some enhanced chance of showers and storms each day, probably near or above average. There may be some tapering off of chances on Monday but confidence at the day 7 day frame is low. Above average temperatures will continue through the end of the week and into the weekend with daily max temps rising into the mid to upper 90s and heat index values reaching 105 to 110 and likely reaching heat advisory levels during periods of peak heating. The only thing that could hamper reaching heat advisory is if cloudiness develops quickly and convection begins by early afternoon hours and limits our heat indices. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at area TAF sites this morning. Convection will develop this afternoon, primarily affecting sites closer to the Atlantic coast. Gusty winds, and restrictions can be expected in and near storms. VFR conditions are then expected to prevail overnight. && .MARINE... Today, Atlantic high pressure will shift south and westward as a trough forms over the southeastern states, with winds prevailing west-southwesterly this morning and more westerly the rest of the week. Each afternoon, the sea breeze will shift winds southeasterly over the near shore waters through the upcoming weekend, followed by southerly evening wind surges which may briefly increase to near caution levels. Scattered thunderstorms may push east from the coast into the coastal waters this evening. Scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will remain possible each day through the upcoming weekend. Rip Currents: A lower end moderate risk may continue at the northeast FL beaches This afternoon as breezy onshore winds develop following the passage of the sea breeze. Low surf heights will likely yield a low risk at the southeast GA beaches. A low risk is then expected from Wednesday through at least Saturday at area beaches as offshore winds and low surf heights prevail. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy High Afternoon Dispersions Beginning Tuesday Light west to southwest winds will keep the Atlantic seabreeze near the coast each day, with lower thunderstorm coverage expected today through Wednesday and forecast to be around 20-40%. A few strong thunderstorms may produce gusty outflows with locally erratic winds. Temperatures will rise into the mid 90s inland and lower to mid 90s at the coast today and Wednesday with peak heat index values rising to heat advisory levels to about 106-110 into midweek. A heat advisory is in effect for parts of the area today, and may be needed again on Wednesday. Patchy high daytime dispersions expected today into Wednesday as mixing heights increase along with increasing westerly transport winds. Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected, with shallow, patchy fog late overnight limited to areas that receive locally heavy rainfall. && .CLIMATE... Daily record high temperatures are possible by Thu-Fri: Thursday, August 13th: KJAX: 99/2023 KAMG: 100/9999 KCRG: 96/2023 Friday, August 14th: KJAX: 99/2023 KGNV: 97/2023 KAMG: 101/2023 KCRG: 98/2023 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 95 76 95 76 / 30 20 30 20 SSI 95 78 95 79 / 60 30 30 20 JAX 95 76 95 76 / 50 20 40 20 SGJ 94 77 95 77 / 20 10 40 20 GNV 94 75 94 75 / 10 0 20 10 OCF 94 75 94 75 / 20 10 20 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138- 140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425- 433-522-533-633. GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ153-154-165-166. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1275015 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:15 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 710 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased uncertainty regarding shower potential Wednesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Yet another very warm and humid day is expected today, followed by a gradual transition to cooler and drier conditions through the end of the work week. Much more comfortable weather is expected this weekend into early next week. - Rain chances increase during the second half of the work week as a frontal boundary settles across the region, followed by a return to dry weather for the weekend. Rain chances may increase again early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Yet another very warm and humid day is expected today, followed by a gradual transition to cooler and drier conditions through the end of the work week. Much more comfortable weather is expected this weekend into early next week. One more day of heat and humidity is on tap today, with 925mb temperatures of +20C to +23C supporting highs well into the middle to upper 80s. Dew points in the lower to middle 60s will make it feel warmer, with heat indices reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s. This will result in Moderate HeatRisk, particularly along the I-95 corridor, with those most sensitive to heat and those without adequate cooling or hydration most susceptible to impacts. The pattern begins to change Wednesday as temperatures aloft gradually cool, with 925mb temperatures falling from the lower 20s Celsius today into the teens Celsius by Friday. Dew points will follow suit, dropping from the 60s today into the 50s by late this week. The result will be a noticeably cooler and more refreshing airmass by Friday. A quasi-stationary front will be the primary driver of this transition. The front is expected to linger near southern New England late Wednesday into Thursday, keeping the region in a more unsettled pattern. As the front finally pushes offshore Friday, as a cold front, drier air will filter into the region behind it, aided by high pressure building southward from central Canada. The weekend is shaping up to be the most comfortable stretch of weather in quite some time, with highs generally in the upper 70s across interior southern New England and lower 80s along the coastal plain. Dew points in the 50s will make for much more comfortable conditions, while overnight lows fall into the 50s Saturday and Sunday nights. These pleasant conditions may continue into early next week, although the forecast becomes more unsettled by then. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances increase during the second half of the work week as a frontal boundary settles across the region, followed by a return to dry weather for the weekend. Rain chances may increase again early next week. Dry weather and a good deal of sunshine are expected today, although skies may become somewhat filtered by elevated smoke from distant wildfires. Tonight, a weak system passing south of New England could produce a shower or rumble of thunder across the extreme south coast and Islands, but probabilities remain low at less than 15 percent. Wednesday remains a lower-confidence portion of the forecast. While most guidance keeps a fast-moving low pressure system south of New England, there are some notable differences in the guidance. The 00z NAM develops a robust 995 mb surface low near the Benchmark (40N/70W), while the 3 km NAM also depicts a surface low in the vicinity, though considerably weaker. AI guidance likewise maintains the surface wave south of New England. Given the overall consensus, the current forecast favors a track south of the region, with little to no precipitation expected during the day Wednesday. The forecast becomes more active Wednesday night into Thursday as a quasi- stationary front settles across the Northeast. Weak surface lows riding along the boundary will provide multiple opportunities for showers, with precipitation chances increasing from late Wednesday night through Thursday night. While periods of showers are likely, the setup does not currently favor continuous rainfall across the region. The front should finally push offshore early Friday, allowing drier air to move into southern New England as high pressure builds southward from central Canada. This will usher in the dry and much more comfortable conditions expected for the weekend. High pressure should remain the dominant feature through the weekend, supporting sunny to mostly sunny skies, low humidity, and seasonable temperatures. Beyond the weekend, the pattern becomes less settled, with increasing rain chances possible early next week as the next system approaches. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12z Update... Today...High confidence. VFR. West to west-northwest winds 8 to 12 kt. Winds across Cape Cod and the Islands will be west-southwest at 10 to 12 kt, with gusts up to 18 kt. There is a possibility for wildfire smoke to reach southern New England this afternoon and remain elevated, likely resulting in hazy skies and, at worst, visibility reductions to 5-6SM. Tonight...High confidence. VFR. Light and variable winds. There is a low probability for a shower to impact the Islands. Wednesday...High confidence. VFR. Light westerly winds. Potential for localized sea breezes to develop along the coast, including KBOS. KBOS Terminal...High confidence. Wildfire smoke aloft possible. KBDL Terminal...High confidence. Wildfire smoke aloft possible. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/... Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Wednesday...High confidence. No significant weather expected through this period, with winds and seas remaining below advisory criteria. Winds today will be west to southwest, gusting at times to around 20 kt, especially across the waters south of Rhode Island toward Buzzards Bay and Vineyard Sound. Elsewhere, winds will be 10 to 15 kt. On Wednesday, localized sea breezes may develop near shore, while offshore winds remain variable at less than 10 kt. Seas will remain below 3 ft throughout the forecast period. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/... Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1275014 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:09 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 552 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 551 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts next week, with peak heat indices 110 to 115, especially Wednesday and Thursday. - Little to no rain chance through Thursday, limited 20% Friday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 123 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Decreasing moisture and building high pressure will keep rain chances to a minimal at least through Thursday. Some weaknesses will travel around the south side of the ridge, but these will remain mainly south of the area, and with PWAT values not much above normal values, think the best we can see is an isolated sea breeze shower, but meso models not even suggesting that for the next few days. By Friday the ridge does shift a bit northward allowing disturbances to get a little closer. Moisture will increase a bit Friday, but not substantially and will maintain only 20% PoPs. Seasonal temperatures are expected with a very slight uptick toward the second half of the week. Highs will be above 100 daily over the Rio Grande Plains and in the 90s east. Heat index values on Tuesday may briefly top 110 for a few locations, but this should be limited. Wednesday and Thursday have a better chance to have heat advisory level conditions. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 551 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Patchy fog will lead to isolated areas of MVFR conditions, but otherwise, VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. SE`ly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 kts after 16Z with winds decreasing at or below 10 kts after 03Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 123 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Moderate southeasterly flow persists through the week for most of the area. South of Port Aransas in bays and along the coast a fresh breeze will be possible Wednesday and Thursday, and a localized small craft advisory may be needed. Rain chances will be low through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 123 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Min RHs will be in the 25-30% range each afternoon through the end of the week in the western Brush country and Rio Grande Plains. These low RHs combined with ERCs in the 70-89th percentile range will lead to elevated fire weather conditions over this region each day. Winds will generally be around 15 mph, with wind gusts in the 20-25 mph range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 95 79 96 79 / 10 0 0 0 Victoria 95 77 96 77 / 10 10 10 0 Laredo 104 78 106 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 100 75 101 75 / 10 0 0 0 Rockport 92 82 90 82 / 10 10 10 0 Cotulla 104 77 106 77 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 97 77 99 77 / 10 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 90 82 90 82 / 10 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1275013 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:03 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 701 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 - Heat Advisory issued for all of east central Florida from 11am-8pm today for heat index values up to 108F-110F degrees; Remember to practice heat safety! - Hot and humid conditions will continue for at least the next several days. Maximum heat index values will reach near or at Heat Advisory criteria (108F+) each day through at least Friday - Near to below normal rain chances this week. Drier air aloft mostly due to a Saharan Dust Layer will support strong gusty winds in lightning storms each day && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery shows dry weather across east central Florida. GOES-16 satellite imagery and local observations indicate mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures are currently in the mid 70s to low 80s with dew points in the mid 70s to around 80F degrees. Analysis charts show high pressure (~1022mb) over the eastern Gulf. Additionally, there`s a 500mb high over eastern Gulf and state of Florida with 500mb heights at 595dm (90th percentile), as well as a mid/upper level trough over the western Atlantic. Drier air in the mid to upper levels are expected to keep rain chances below normal today mostly due to a Saharan Dust Layer. Isolated to widely scattered showers (20-30% chance) and lightning storms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening as collisions occur between sea breezes and outflow from previous showers/lightning storm. Rain chances diminish by around 8PM. Hi-res guidance shows MLCAPE up to 2,000-4,200 J/kg, 0-6km shear up to 10- 30kts, PWATs up to 1.80-2.30", and conditionally unstable mid-level lapse rates. Therefore, the potential exists for an isolated strong lightning storm or two capable of frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 30-50mph, and heavy rainfall (up to 1-3"). Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s are forecast. A Heat Advisory has been issued for all of east central Florida from 11AM to 8PM for heat index values up to 108-110F degrees. Remember to take frequent breaks from the heat, drink plenty of fluids, wear light colored clothing, and shift outdoor work away from the hottest parts of the day between the hours of 11am to 4pm. Near to above normal lows in low 70s to near 80F degrees are forecast overnight. Wednesday-Friday... Expect a similar forecast on Wednesday and Thursday with drier air in the mid to upper levels which will keep rain chances below normal. The aforementioned 500mb ridge is expected to shift west as the mid/upper level trough over the western Atlantic deepens on Wednesday into Thursday before the ridge builds over Deep South, as well as the state of Florida late week. 500mb heights are forecast to increase from 594dm (90th percentile) on Wednesday to 597dm (maximum percentile for this time of year) by Friday over the Deep South. This will result in a slight increase in winds from the west at 5-10mph on Wednesday and Thursday before winds turn onshore with the east coast sea breeze over the coastal counties into the afternoon and evening each day. Isolated to scattered showers (20-30% chance on Wednesday and 20-40% chance Thursday/Friday) and lightning storms are forecast to develop into the afternoon and evening as collisions occur between sea breezes and outflow from previous showers/lightning storms. Guidance indicates high instability, weak to moderate bulk shear, PWATs up to 1.80- 2.3", as well as conditionally to absolutely unstable mid level lapse rates. Thus, the potential exists for isolated strong storms capable of producing frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 30-50mph, and heavy rainfall (up to 1-3"). Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s are forecast each day with near Heat Advisory criteria maximum heat index values up to 105F-110F degrees forecast. Lows in the low to upper 70s are forecast. Saturday-Monday... The heat wave is expected to continue through the forecast period as a longwave ridge builds over the eastern CONUS. Ensembles are in good agreement that 500mb heights will reach 597dm over the southeastern US before weakening (594dm) and gradually shifting slightly west-southwest on Monday. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to build over the eastern Gulf and Deep South. Light and variable winds are forecast to increase into the afternoon and evening on Saturday and Sunday at 5-10mph with the east coast sea breeze mainly along and south of I-4. Mostly dry to below normal rain chances are forecast over the weekend through Monday. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s with lows in the low to upper 70s. At least a Moderate to Major HeatRisk is forecast each day with a 20-40% chance of an Extreme HeatRisk for Lake county. A Major and Extreme HeatRisk affect anyone without adequate cooling and hydration. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Currently-Tonight... Favorable boating conditions are expected. Isolated showers and lightning storms are forecast to the north of Melbourne into the afternoon. West-southwest winds at 5-10kts are expected to turn east- southeast into the afternoon with the east coast sea breeze. Seas to 1-2ft are expected. Wednesday-Saturday... Favorable boating conditions are expected to continue. Isolated to widely scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast over the local Atlantic waters on Wednesday. Mostly dry to below normal rain chances are forecast Thursday to Saturday. An isolated generally offshore moving strong storm cannot be ruled out on Wednesday. West- southwest winds at 5-15kts are forecast to turn southeast in the afternoon and evening with the east coast sea breeze on Wednesday. West winds at 6-12kts are forecast to turn south- southeast each afternoon from Thursday to Saturday. Seas to 1-2ft are forecast. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 619 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Light and variable winds will increase to 5-10 KT and become SW after 14Z across the interior sites, and ESE along the coast after 16Z. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible along the east coast sea breeze as it pushes inland. Thus, have maintained VCSH starting at 16Z along the coast, and starting at 19Z across the interior. Confidence remains too low at this time to include VCTS or any TEMPOs/PROB30. Light and variable winds and dry conditions return along coastal sites after 20Z and, across the interior sites after 00Z Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 94 76 94 76 / 30 10 30 10 MCO 95 77 95 76 / 30 10 20 10 MLB 91 77 93 77 / 20 20 20 10 VRB 93 75 94 75 / 20 10 30 10 LEE 95 77 94 77 / 30 10 20 0 SFB 95 77 96 77 / 30 10 30 10 ORL 95 78 95 77 / 30 10 30 10 FPR 92 77 94 76 / 20 10 30 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259- 264-347-447-547-647-747. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1275012 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:57 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 646 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 645 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 - Hazardous heat is expected through much of the week into the upcoming weekend with heat index values of 105-112 likely. Heat Advisories are in effect for the eastern FL Panhandle & Big Bend and far southwest GA for this afternoon. - Isolated showers and storms will be possible each day. The strongest storms could produce gusty winds and frequent lightning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 A mid-upper level ridge axis moves overhead today, beginning our heat wave that will last through much of this week into the weekend. High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 90s, except along the coast where highs will reach the low 90s. With southwesterly to westerly flow, we`ll continue to have rich Gulf moisture move in, giving us humid conditions as well. With PWATs of 1.8 to 2 inches, we may not mix out as effectively as previous days, meaning we`ll stay pretty humid into the afternoon hours. Heat index values will rise to the 103 to 110 degree range this afternoon. The highest heat indices will be across the eastern Florida Panhandle and Big Bend and far southwest Georgia. This is where a Heat Advisory is in effect for this afternoon. If you`re working outdoors, stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in an air conditioned space, and wear light clothing. Isolated showers and storms are possible today, mainly near the sea breeze in the Florida counties and along and north of US 82 as a weak disturbance moves across northern and central Georgia. These will fade pretty quickly this evening. Lows will be in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 The ridge then breaks off, becoming centered along the north central Gulf Coast, nearly on top of us. This will lead to the heat continuing and possibly increasing as well with many areas in the upper 90s by the end of the week into this weekend. It will also still be quite humid given persistent southwesterly surface flow off the Gulf and abundant moisture through the atmosphere preventing effective mixing. This will result in heat indices in the 108-112 range almost every afternoon, increasing in coverage heading into the weekend. We will probably need Heat Advisories for at least parts of the area each day through the rest of the week. Some areas could even approach "extreme heat" thresholds (heat index values of 113 or greater) Friday and this weekend. This ridge keeps a lid on rain chances through at least Thursday with rain chances only around 20-30%. By Friday, the ridge pivots more toward the west, which will open the door for disturbances to ride around the periphery of the ridge into our area this weekend. Thus, while we will still be potentially dangerously hot and humid, we should see at least an increase in rain chances to the 30-50% range, potentially higher should a more organized complex of storms take shape with one of those shortwaves rounding the ridge. Early next week, the ridge builds back to the east again, which will prolong the heat and bring a return to reduced rain chances. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 645 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. The lone exception could be brief MVFR/IFR ceilings/visibility restrictions across ECP/DHN near sunrise. Isolated TSRA is possible again this afternoon, mostly from 18z-00z. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Gentle to moderate southwesterly breezes will continue over the next several days. A slight uptick in winds in the nearshore waters and bays is possible as the sea breeze develops each afternoon. Isolated showers and storms will mostly be confined to land areas, but nearshore morning showers or storms could pose a waterspout risk. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Southwest to west transport winds around 5-15 mph will continue through Thursday. Dispersions will be good each afternoon, but could be locally high close to the I-75 corridor in GA. Isolated showers and storms are possible each afternoon, generally starting near the coast in the late morning or early afternoon, then moving inland through the afternoon hours. Gusty, erratic winds and frequent lightning are possible in and near storms. Otherwise, hazardous heat will be expected each day with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values of 103-112. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Localized heavy downpours are possible in afternoon thunderstorms. However, widespread flood concerns are not expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 96 76 97 77 / 20 0 30 0 Panama City 92 79 92 79 / 10 0 10 0 Dothan 95 75 96 76 / 10 10 30 0 Albany 96 77 96 77 / 20 10 30 10 Valdosta 97 76 97 76 / 10 10 40 10 Cross City 94 76 95 76 / 10 0 10 10 Apalachicola 91 79 93 79 / 20 0 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ010>019-027>029-034-112- 114-115-118-127-326-426. GA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ155-156. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1275011 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:42 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 635 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated for 12Z aviation discussion. No other changes attm. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mostly dry midweek with potential for extreme heat today through Friday. 2) Thunderstorm chances should increase again late Friday and Saturday with the approach of a cold front from the north. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly dry midweek with potential for extreme heat today through Friday. Today will kick off an extended period of hot and humid weather across our area with mid-level ridge extending across the Southeast from the Atlantic. Forecasted afternoon temperatures each day this week is in the upper 90s, with potential for a few sites reaching 100F at least one day this week. Combined with seasonably high dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, heat indices each afternoon will easily eclipse triple digits. Mixing down of drier air each afternoon may alleviate some of the humidity, but overall looking at multiple days of heat products needed. For today, a Heat Advisory remains in effect for coastal counties, and have added Bladen county to the advisory based on latest forecast. NWS HeatRisk highlights potential for extreme impacts from heat for our area Wed - Fri, with lows in the mid to upper 70s providing little to no relief. Rain chances are relatively low through early Friday due to the ridge`s influence. Several upper impulses may lead to widely scattered showers moving into our area later today and again late Wednesday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Thunderstorm chances should increase again late Friday and Saturday with the approach of a cold front from the north. The next best chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms will be late Friday and during the day Saturday. The upper air pattern should amplify late this week as a longwave trough takes shape just off the East Coast and the former Bermuda ridge retrogrades to the Mississippi Valley. Northwest flow aloft may push a cold front southward into the Carolinas Saturday, accompanied by cooler temperatures for the weekend and an uptick in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mainly VFR. Lingering winds and drier air have hindered fog/stratus formation thus far. While some shallow ground fog is still possible for the next hour or two, impact to aviation interests should be limited. Mostly clear skies today with a few diurnal cumulus clouds around 4-5 kft. Relatively light winds out of the west-southwest, with a southerly sea breeze pinned at the coast (impacting MYR/CRE) this afternoon. Extended Forecast...VFR should prevail through the rest of the week. Shallow ground fog is possible inland each early morning. The approach of a cold front from the north may lead to increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms again late Friday into Saturday. && .MARINE... Through Saturday...West-southwest winds will prevail across the local coastal waters through Friday due to Bermuda high pressure offshore. Wind speeds generally 10-15 kts, with gusts near 20 kts each afternoon/evening. Seas around 2-3 ft through Friday, with 4 footers in the 20-60nm zones Friday afternoon, primarily due to SSW wind wave with a weak ESE swell mixed in. A cold front will approach from the north late Friday, moving across the area sometime Friday night or Saturday, turning winds northeasterly for Saturday. The front will also be accompanied by an increase in thunderstorm chances. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ096-099-105>110. SC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054>056-058-059. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1275010 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:27 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 322 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 322 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 - Heat indices around 100-107 degrees are expected today, increasing mid week on. - A Moderate risk of rip currents returns to Florida beaches Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 The 00z Rip Current Risk probability guidance is now showing a Moderate risk for the Florida beaches starting Wednesday afternoon where we expect slightly higher west-southwesterly winds and significant wave heights. This Moderate risk will continue through Thursday before settling back to Low. /22 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1204 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Through Thursday night, an upper level shortwave trough digging off the East Coast shifts an upper high over the northern Gulf Coast, westward, to over the northwestern Gulf Coast. A surface high over the eastern Gulf shifts west to over the central Gulf in response, with a drier airmass over the Gulf (precipitable h20 values less than 1.5") shifting north over the northern Gulf and Lower Mississippi River Valley. This displaces the moist airmass over the forecast area eastward to varying extents, depending upon the model. Add in an upper level shortwave trough passing over the northeast side of the upper ridge Wednesday, and a dry, subsidence caused day Tuesday sees isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern half of the forecast area Wednesday. Thursday, PoPs drop to isolated, mainly over areas southeast of I-65 as moisture levels drop and upper subsidence returns and builds east a bit, even as the upper high shifts west. Temperatures see a bit of an increase with dropping moisture levels, especially over the western half of the forecast area along with upper subsidence increasing a bit with the building upper high. High temperatures away from the coast rise from the 92-97 degree range Tuesday rise into the 94 to 99 degree range Thursday. Along the coast, high temperatures around 90 are expected through mid week. Heat indices rise from the 100-107 degree range over most of the forecast area Tuesday rise into the 105 to 110 degree range Thursday. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed Wednesday, though the extent is hard to pin down at this time. Friday though the weekend, The upper ridge centered over the northwestern Gulf coast shifts north, to over the Southern/Central Plains, surface high pressure shifts to over the Southern Plains in response. As the upper high moves off over the central Conus, increased moisture over the eastern half of the Southeast shifts west over the region (and the forecast area), but an upper building east over the Southeast will keep good upper subsidence over the region, helping to limit PoPs to isolated to low end scattered at best over the forecast area into the coming week. Temperatures see a small uptick into the weekend, along with Heat Indices.. Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a general Low Risk is expected into mid week, with the onshore flow less organized. An uptick to a low Moderate is indicated for the end of the week, especially over our Florida beaches. /16 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through this evening. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Light southwesterly to westerly winds will occur tonight through the remainder of the week as a surface high pressure area remains across the eastern Gulf. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 92 76 93 77 / 10 0 20 0 Pensacola 91 79 93 79 / 20 10 20 0 Destin 90 80 91 80 / 10 0 10 0 Evergreen 94 75 94 75 / 10 10 30 10 Waynesboro 96 75 97 75 / 10 0 10 10 Camden 92 75 93 76 / 10 0 20 0 Crestview 94 75 95 75 / 10 0 30 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1275009 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:21 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 411 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added a Heat Advisory for the Albemarle Sound counties of interior NE NC. Otherwise, forecast thinking remains fairly similar. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Heat and humidity persists today with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible late this afternoon into this evening. 2) An unsettled pattern continues through the remainder of the week. However, uncertainty remains high. && .DISCUSSION... As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity persists today across the south, along with isolated to scattered showers and storms area-wide. Early morning WX analysis indicates a W-NW flow aloft with the Bermuda high now getting shunted farther south to the Gulf coast and Bahamas. The latest radar indicates another MCS not too far off from the one yesterday aftn, currently located across WV and moving E-SE. The main difference is that this will not be encountering nearly as favorable of an airmass given the early AM timeframe as well as cooler temperatures even compared to the past few mornings (upper 60s to lower 70s). Therefore, this feature should weaken further through sunrise as it moves east of the Appalachians, though a few showers may brush our northern counties through mid morning. With the airmass overturned from yesterday`s widespread convection across VA/MD, today`s SVR potential is highly uncertain. Debris clouds are likely across at least the northern 1/2 of the CWA through late morning/early aftn which will limit or at least delay instability. The CAMs, which generally did poorly yesterday show varying solutions for this aftn/evening- the 00Z RRFS is the most aggressive at brining another more organized line of storms through the CWA from late aftn into the evening, while the other models are much less bullish on this scenario. The 06Z HRRR has trended closer to the RRFS solution, so at least 30-40% PoPs will continue to be maintained for most of the area. SPC has most of the area in a Marginal SVR risk, primarily for damaging wind gusts, as shear is decent for August (25-30 kt) with a Slight Risk just making it into our far NW. The SPC discussion does note the high uncertainty given the current MCS and how this might affect aftn conditions. In addition, a Marginal ERO is in effect for most of the region (with a Slight nudging into the far NW). The sfc winds are a bit more from the W-SW today, and given this, decided to hoist a small Heat Advisory for the interior NE NC zones along the Albemarle sound where sfc dew pts should be several degrees higher, along with highs into the mid 90s, leading to heat indices of 105+ for a few hrs. Elsewhere, highs will generally be in the lower 90s (upper 80s/around 90F far N with heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s). show multiple rounds of MCSs developing in the WNW/NW flow aloft. However, where they track and when they develop will have large implications to the local weather. Most CAMs have an overturned airmass moving into the region in the wake of today`s MCS for Tue. As such, HREF (as well as most individual models/CAMs) show dew points in the upper 60s to around 70F Tue afternoon (as opposed to the mid 70s from the NBM) and lower surface temps. Therefore, have blended in lower guidance for dew points but held off (for now) on dropping high temps by more than a degree or two due to uncertainty regarding whether or not partial clearing can occur during the afternoon. This resulted in heat indices remaining below heat advisory criteria. As such, no heat headlines will be issued at this time. Will note that latest guidance keeps temps even cooler than the current forecast. In general, highs in lower 90s are the most likely scenario with locally upper 80s or mid 90s possible Tue. Additionally, as a result of the overturned airmass, widespread cloud cover and mixed dew points could result in very little instability Tue afternoon. HREF mean CAPE only shows around 500 J/kg for most of the area (which for August is very low). As such, confidence in storm development (and especially severe potential) for Tue has decreased substantially. Nevertheless, SPC has maintained a marginal risk (1/5) for severe storms across most of the area with a slight risk (level 2/5) across portions of Piedmont. WPC has also maintained a marginal ERO across the area for Tue. KEY MESSAGE 2...An unsettled pattern continues through the remainder of the week, trending to a cooler and somewhat drier start to the weekend. However, uncertainty remains high. WNW flow aloft continues Wed through the remainder of the week as a ridge aloft is expected to continue through late in the week as an upper level ridge builds across the central CONUS, and eventually shifts E-SE across the deep south. Meanwhile, a trough lingers across New England and eastern Canada. Expect an active pattern with the daily potential for isolated to scattered storms each afternoon/evening. SPC has maintained a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe storms across southern portions of the FA Wed. However, confidence continues to remain low given uncertainty in aforementioned MCS timing and impacts. For now, have largely kept NBM PoPs (30-35% SW to 15-25% NE) to account for the potential for isolated to scattered storms. Beyond Wed, the pattern remains similar with only a slight chance (15-20%) for a few isolated showers or storms on Thu (and only general thunder risk) with a better chance on Fri (30-40% PoPs). Outside of convection, temps remain near the warm side of normal with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Wed and Thu and upper 80s to lower 90s Fri. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday... Primarily VFR conditions prevail early this morning aside from some local pockets of fog and low stratus over interior SE VA, though none of this has affected any of the main terminals. Mid/high clouds overspread most of the region through sunrise, with perhaps a SHRA at SBY between 10-14Z (have a PROB30), but remaining dry elsewhere. Otherwise, winds will be mainly from the W today at less than 10 kt (ORF could see a shift to the NE for a few hrs this aftn). Storm coverage later today is highly uncertain, but still have mainly PoPs ~30% later in the aftn/early evening, so have included PROB30 groups for TSRA at RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG between 19-21Z through 23-01Z. Mainly VFR tonight with storm chances diminishing. Outlook: Expect predominate VFR conditions prevail Tue through Thu. However, daily low-end chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms exists each day. Along with this comes a chance for early morning stratus/ground fog each late night/early morning Wednesday through Friday AM. && .MARINE... As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Message: - Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected to prevail through most of the week. Morning weather analysis shows high pressure continuing to sit well offshore, with a weak surface low over New England. The pressure gradient from these two systems continues to remain weak but just strong enough to keep the winds out of the W around 10kt with some gusts around 15 kt. Seas this morning are around 1-2ft across the bay and 2-3ft across the ocean. Through the morning and into the afternoon of today, winds will shift out of the WSW and remain around 10 kt with gusts nearing 15kt. Seas will remain quite benign and not change much through the day and stay around 1-2ft in the bay and 2-3 ft across the ocean. In terms of storm chances for this afternoon, models continue to back off on scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. This is due to the possibility of cloud cover lingering from this mornings ongoing convection to the west. However, if the clouds are able to clear and daytime heating is able to take place the threat for a strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out. The main threat with these storms would be strong winds greater than 34kt. Greater convective coverage is possible on Wednesday but with low confidence on the details. Otherwise, benign marine conditions are expected to prevail through the end of the week. By the end of the week a cold front will gradually approach and shift winds to the N-NE by late Friday into next weekend. Models are generally keeping the winds rather light, but if the front actually pushes south of the waters, this would potentially bring SCAs, but uncertainty is high at this range. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ015>017-031-032. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1275008 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:18 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 402 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Expanded the Heat Advisory to also include Northern Craven, Pamlico, Beaufort, Washington, Tyrrell, Mainland Dare and Mainland Hyde counties. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot and humid conditions will prevail through the workweek with bringing high probabilities for a major heat risk over much of the area. 2) Summertime pattern continues over the next several days with daily chances for shower and thunderstorm activity. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... An elevated heat risk will be the name of the game over the next few days low level flow generally SW to W over the next several days. As a result, some weak WAA will allow low level thicknesses to increase closer to 1430m. Based off the offices climatological study this is forecast to result in highs in the low to mid 90s across the inland areas and upper 80s to low 90s along the OBX and coast through much of the week before a front impacts the region resulting in cooler temperatures late week into the weekend. Heat indices are expected to peak around 100-110 each afternoon through Thurs, and potentially lingering into Fri with daily heat headlines probable for much of the area. For today, have expanded the Heat Advisory to include the Inner Banks, which leaves NW counties the the OBX out as they are expected to remain just below criteria. We encourage anyone planning on spending alot of time outdoors this week to take proper precautions and stay hydrated. KEY MESSAGE 2... A typical summer time pattern will remain in place through much the week with a series of shortwaves/MCS`s moving through WNW flow aloft bringing periods of showers and thunderstorms across the region. With a moist and unstable airmass in place, could see daily seabreeze related storms developing each afternoon, however best forcing will occur as individual shortwaves move across the region, which at this time appears to be late afternoon and evening hours for the next couple of days and SPC has portions of the FA in a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for both Day 1 and Day 2 as these systems push across the area. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe threat with these storms. A stronger northern stream shortwave is progged to push across the Mid-Atlantic Friday with the attendant cold front pushing into the area bringing the best forcing and chances for widespread showers and storms across the area. High pressure build into the area over the weekend bringing bringing a drier airmass and minimal chances for storms. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AMD NOT SKED has been added to EWN again. Obs briefly came back yesterday but have disappeared again overnight. Have no knowledge at this time of cause of the issue. TAFs will continue to be issued while the issue is troubleshooted. NKT is the closest ASOS. EWN is able to be dialed into to receive latest observations. Fog and low stratus concerns are low tonight with winds expected to remain elevated enough. However, locations that experienced enhanced rainfall today could be at risk of seeing some low stratus or very shallow, non-impactful ground fog with higher near surface moisture. OAJ briefly reported IFR vsybs and think this TAF site will have the best chance to sub-VFR conditions this morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening as a convective system pushes across the Mid-Atlantic. Some storms could produce strong wind gusts. Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): Primarily VFR conditions and light winds are expected mid to late week, but there will be scattered convection possible each afternoon and evening hours that could bring periods of sub-VFR conditions. A cold front is progged to push through the area late Friday/Friday night that will bring the best chances for prolonged sub-VFR conditions. In addition, there is a low end chance for patchy ground fog to develop each morning with best chances in areas that saw significant rainfall the previous afternoon/evening. && .MARINE... A typical summertime pattern across the waters with S-SW winds around 5-15 kt during the morning hours, increasing to around 10-20 kt during the afternoon and evening each day this week as temps warm inland bringing a tightening of gradients between the thermal trough inland and the offshore high. Gusts may approach SCA conditions across the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras at times but currently not anticipating any SCA headlines for any waters given the short and infrequent nature of any stronger gusts. Seas will remain around 2-4 ft into the end of the week as well. A series of shortwave troughs will push across the coastal waters through the week continuing to bring periods if showers and thunderstorms, most prevalent being nocturnal driven over the Gulf Stream waters. A cold front is progged to push across the waters late Friday/Friday night with N to NE winds developing over the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ045>047-080-081-090-092-094-193>196-198-199. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1275007 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:18 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 402 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Gentle to moderate easterly to southeasterlies this morning will gradually slacken to a light breeze through mid to late week. - A Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will remain over the region for the next several days, keeping slim to no Shower and thunder chances for much of the week. - Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue for much of the week with not much relief overnight. Remember to stay hydrated and take breaks. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 A deep layered ridging stretches east/west across northern and central Florida. This is resulting in gentle to moderate easterlies across the Keys and surrounding waters. There is some indication that the northwestern reaches of a broad Saharan Air Layer has spread across our area. This past evenings sounding indicated considerable CAPE. However, precipitable water was 1.53 inches, very near the 10th percentile for the day. In addition, there was a robust nose of inhibition based around 850 mb. As a result, there have only been a few showers present across our area through the evening. Temperatures are drifting slowly downwards through the mid 80s with dew points ranging in the mid to upper 70s. Through mid week a low amplitude mid latitude trough will amplify slightly over the eastern United States. In response, the deep layered ridge will weaken as it gradually shifts southward across Central Florida. Expect surface winds to trend downwards through this stretch, potentially becoming light and variable after mid week as the surface ridge becomes split daily by mainland day time heating. No significant trend in temperatures are expected. Highs will remain near 90 and lows in the lower to mid 80s. Dew points will remain in the mid to upper 70s. Heading into late week, a shortwave trough will help to amplify the eastern United States mid latitude trough a bit more, further weakening the nearby ridging. Meanwhile, all guidance points to a broad lower level trough advancing westward across our area in the early Friday through Saturday time frame. As the trough draws near on Friday, winds may strengthen moderately out of the northeast to east, then shift east to southeast heading into the weekend as the trough moves through and west of our area. In addition, this trough will bring increased confluence, less inhibition, and much higher precipitable water at near 2 inches. For this reason a period or two of at low to mid chance for showers and thunderstorms appear reasonable for this time frame. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 A surface ridge across Central Florida will shift southward into South Florida over the next couple of days. As a result, gentle to moderate easterly breezes will relax to a light to gentle breeze. Some variability is expected to build in after mid week as the ridge weakens and is fractured daily by daytime heating. Late in the week, breezes will begin strengthening out of the northeast as the ridge lifts back into Central and a broad lower level trough begins advancing westward across our area. This weekend winds will shift east to southeasterly, becoming gentle to moderate with near or slightly above normal rain chances as the trough moves through the Keys area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals today. Surface winds will be light to gentle easterlies. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 92 85 92 85 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 91 84 92 84 / 10 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1275006 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:33 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 320 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections have been updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A Heat Advisory is in effect for the coastal counties this afternoon as hot and humid conditions make a return. Additional Heat Advisories will likely be required through the week and into the weekend. Extreme Heat Watches/Warnings cannot be ruled out, especially towards the end of the week. - 2) Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop across southeast Georgia and the lower South Carolina Lowcountry, especially near the coast. A few storms may produce damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours this afternoon and evening. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the region late Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A Heat Advisory is in effect for the coastal counties this afternoon as hot and humid conditions make a return. Additional Heat Advisories will likely be required through the week and into the weekend. Extreme Heat Watches/Warnings cannot be ruled out, especially towards the end of the week. Heat headlines are likely into the weekend as heat index values soar into the 100-110 range each afternoon through mid-week and upwards of 115 late in the week. The daily record highs and record high minimum temperatures will likely be challenged at our three climate sites (see Climate Section for more details). Given the very mild overnight periods and minimal coverage of precipitation, there will be few instances of relief from the heat this week and into the weekend. Today and Wednesday: Ridging aloft will dominate over the southeastern states today and Wednesday, with high temperatures each day reaching into the mid 90s. Dew points will surge behind the sea breeze, likely reaching values in the mid to upper 70s. This will yield heat index values as high as 110 generally east of I-95. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the coastal counties today from 11 AM to 8 PM. Another Heat Advisory will likely be required for the same locations on Wednesday. Thursday and Friday: The ridging aloft amplifies towards the end of the week, likely bringing the warmest temperatures of the heat wave. Highs on each day will likely reach into the upper 90s, with a brief moment of touching 100 not out of the question. Heat index values west of I-95 will likely reach 105-108 (Heat Advisory) with locations east of I-95 reaching heat index values as high as 115. Extreme Heat Watches/Warnings may be required for these locations. This Weekend: The center of ridging aloft will shift slightly westward, resulting in a slight downtick of temperatures. However, heat index values are still forecast to reach upwards of 110 along the coastal corridor likely necessitating additional Heat Advisories. KEY MESSAGE 2: Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop across southeast Georgia and the lower South Carolina Lowcountry, especially near the coast. A few storms may produce damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours this afternoon and evening. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the region late Wednesday. Tuesday: A sfc trough should remain across the central Carolinas into GA through this evening. Satellite water vapor shows an MCV over the middle AL/GA this morning, expected to ripple over SE GA this afternoon. In addition, the sfc trough to the west should draw the sea breeze inland this afternoon. Recent run of the HREF indicates that deep convection may begin to develop ahead of the MCV, likely forming several cool pools. Hot and humid conditions across the forecast area will likely yield SBCAPE values between 2500-3000 J/kg. In addition, forecast soundings indicate DCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg. Given the expansive field of DCAPE, the cool pools should travel long distances, potentially interacting with the sea breeze. This interaction should develop scattered to numerous thunderstorms along the coast, especially between Chatham and Charleston counties. The environment featuring moderate instability and DCAPE along with effective bulk shear around 20 kts may support a few severe thunderstorms, producing damaging wind gusts. The severe potential appears the greatest across Chatham, Jasper, Beaufort, and Colleton counties this afternoon. In fact, 0Z GEFS indicates that most of the forecast has a 5-15% neighborhood prob of damaging winds, with in excess of 15% near the mouth of the Savannah River. In addition to the severe risk, multicell storms may produce localize areas of heavy rainfall, with some locations receiving in excess of 3 inches. If a swath of heavy rain occurs over a coastal city, then Flash Flooding may occur. Wednesday: The center of 595 DM ridge is forecast to slide west over the northern Gulf. As a result, NW to SE heights may align over the forecast area. NAM12 and CAMS indicate that at least isolated storms may develop over portions of SE GA Wednesday afternoon. Interestingly, the NAM12 and GFS shows an MCS tracking from the Upstate to the Coastal Plain Wed evening. Given the mid-level heights and lingering elevated instability, the potential for an MCS reaching the forecast appears high enough to increase PoPs Wednesday evening and overnight to at least SCHC. SPC has highlighted this potential severe weather with a Marginal Risk. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 6Z TAFs: The terminals will remain between a broad trough across the central Carolinas and Georgia and high pressure over the western Atlantic. This pattern will yield west-southwest winds across the terminals through the TAF period. The interaction of cold pools from the NW and a sea breeze should spawn scattered to numerous thunderstorms near KSAV, highlighted with a TEMPO from 20-24Z. Coverage of convection near KJZI and KCHS appears too limited to highlight in the TAFs at this time. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. && .MARINE... The pressure pattern will support south winds between 15 to 20 kts today, shifting from the southwest tonight. Wave heights are forecast to remain between 2 to 3 ft. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms may push over the nearshore waters late this afternoon and evening. A few of these storms may produce wind gusts in excess of 34 kts, especially the nearshore GA and lower SC waters. Wednesday through Saturday: Conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria this week and into the weekend. A weak coastal trough will set up across the marine waters this week, persisting into the start of the weekend. This set up will keep conditions across the marine waters breezy with southwesterly winds gusting around 15 to 20 knots. 2 to 3 ft seas are expected across the marine zones this week. Coastal Flooding: While elevated tidal cycles are expected this week due to the upcoming perigee and new moon, the south- southwesterly surface flow should keep tidal departures low, limiting the overall coastal flood threat. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: August 11: KCHS: 98/1968 KCXM: 97/1954 August 12: KCHS: 98/1957 KCXM: 98/1998 KSAV: 100/1999 August 13: KCHS: 100/1995 KCXM: 98/1913 KSAV: 98/2010 August 14: KCHS: 102/1995 KSAV: 102/1925 August 15: KCHS: 96/2023 KSAV: 100/1918 Record High Minimum Temperatures: August 10: KCHS: 80/2007 KSAV: 79/2024 August 11: KCHS: 79/1983 KCXM: 82/2021 KSAV: 78/1878 August 12: KCHS: 79/1999 KSAV: 80/1878 August 13: KCHS: 81/2023 KCXM: 83/2023 KSAV: 81/2023 August 14: KCHS: 80/2023 KCXM: 83/2023 KSAV: 80/2023 August 15: KCHS: 78/1995 KCXM: 83/2021 KSAV: 80/1995 August 16: KCHS: 78/2019 KSAV: 78/2019 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ217>219-239>241. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ148>152. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1275005 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:15 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 302 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - While drier air aloft will limit thunderstorm chances and rain totals each day this week, the potential for strong wind gusts is higher in thunderstorms that do form. Have multiple ways to receive weather alerts. - Afternoon max temperatures will top out in the mid 90s over the interior and the lower 90s near the coast, with heat index values maxing out around 103-109 each day this week. There is a Moderate to Extreme HeatRisk; be sure to practice good heat safety if spending prolonged periods outside. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Currently at the surface, the sub-tropical ridge of high pressure extends from the western Atlantic across the Florida Peninsula and will largely hold in place through early next week. In the midupper levels, ridging over Florida will gradually build into the southeastern US by late in the week. This pattern will favor broad subsidence that will result in above normal temperatures and unseasonably limited rain chances each day this week. Although the model consensus has backed off the extreme low PoPs that were in the forecast from 24 hours ago, rain coverage is still forecast to generally range from 10-40 percent each day through Thursday, with 7-day QPFs of around 0.10 to 1.00 inches. Otherwise, temperatures will run above normal, with afternoon highs in the mid 90s over the interior and low 90s along the coast. With typical summer humidity and minimal rain to cool things off, heat index values will max out each day from around 103-109. As a result, a heat advisory has been issued for most of west central and southwest Florida for this afternoon, with the exception of coastal portions of the counties north of the Tampa Bay. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 301 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Mainly VFR conditions will hold through the next 24 hours. The possible exception will be from mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with the highest rain chances over the interior around KLAL. && .MARINE... Issued at 301 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 High pressure centered over the western Atlantic will ridge west into the eastern Gulf through the rest of the week. This will keep winds and seas below headline criteria, turning onshore each afternoon with the sea breeze. Drier air will generally limit thunderstorm chances through the rest of the week, but a few stray storms will be possible each day, mainly in the afternoon and early evening hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 301 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Surface high pressure will ridge across the Florida Peninsula through the next several days with light winds and limited rain chances. No Red Flag concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 93 78 92 78 / 20 0 0 0 FMY 94 77 94 77 / 10 10 40 0 GIF 95 76 95 76 / 30 10 0 0 SRQ 93 77 93 77 / 10 0 0 0 BKV 93 75 92 75 / 10 0 0 0 SPG 93 79 92 80 / 10 0 0 0 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 1 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough- Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1275004 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:15 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 300 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 - Heat Advisory issued for all of east central Florida from 11am-8pm today for heat index values up to 108F-110F degrees; Remember to practice heat safety! - Hot and humid conditions will continue for at least the next several days. Maximum heat index values will reach near or at Heat Advisory criteria (108F+) each day through at least Friday - Near to below normal rain chances this week. Drier air aloft mostly due to a Saharan Dust Layer will support strong gusty winds in lightning storms each day && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery shows dry weather across east central Florida. GOES-16 satellite imagery and local observations indicate mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures are currently in the mid 70s to low 80s with dew points in the mid 70s to around 80F degrees. Analysis charts show high pressure (~1022mb) over the eastern Gulf. Additionally, there`s a 500mb high over eastern Gulf and state of Florida with 500mb heights at 595dm (90th percentile), as well as a mid/upper level trough over the western Atlantic. Drier air in the mid to upper levels are expected to keep rain chances below normal today mostly due to a Saharan Dust Layer. Isolated to widely scattered showers (20-30% chance) and lightning storms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening as collisions occur between sea breezes and outflow from previous showers/lightning storm. Rain chances diminish by around 8PM. Hi-res guidance shows MLCAPE up to 2,000-4,200 J/kg, 0-6km shear up to 10- 30kts, PWATs up to 1.80-2.30", and conditionally unstable mid-level lapse rates. Therefore, the potential exists for an isolated strong lightning storm or two capable of frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 30-50mph, and heavy rainfall (up to 1-3"). Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s are forecast. A Heat Advisory has been issued for all of east central Florida from 11AM to 8PM for heat index values up to 108-110F degrees. Remember to take frequent breaks from the heat, drink plenty of fluids, wear light colored clothing, and shift outdoor work away from the hottest parts of the day between the hours of 11am to 4pm. Near to above normal lows in low 70s to near 80F degrees are forecast overnight. Wednesday-Friday... Expect a similar forecast on Wednesday and Thursday with drier air in the mid to upper levels which will keep rain chances below normal. The aforementioned 500mb ridge is expected to shift west as the mid/upper level trough over the western Atlantic deepens on Wednesday into Thursday before the ridge builds over Deep South, as well as the state of Florida late week. 500mb heights are forecast to increase from 594dm (90th percentile) on Wednesday to 597dm (maximum percentile for this time of year) by Friday over the Deep South. This will result in a slight increase in winds from the west at 5-10mph on Wednesday and Thursday before winds turn onshore with the east coast sea breeze over the coastal counties into the afternoon and evening each day. Isolated to scattered showers (20-30% chance on Wednesday and 20-40% chance Thursday/Friday) and lightning storms are forecast to develop into the afternoon and evening as collisions occur between sea breezes and outflow from previous showers/lightning storms. Guidance indicates high instability, weak to moderate bulk shear, PWATs up to 1.80- 2.3", as well as conditionally to absolutely unstable mid level lapse rates. Thus, the potential exists for isolated strong storms capable of producing frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 30-50mph, and heavy rainfall (up to 1-3"). Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s are forecast each day with near Heat Advisory criteria maximum heat index values up to 105F-110F degrees forecast. Lows in the low to upper 70s are forecast. Saturday-Monday... The heat wave is expected to continue through the forecast period as a longwave ridge builds over the eastern CONUS. Ensembles are in good agreement that 500mb heights will reach 597dm over the southeastern US before weakening (594dm) and gradually shifting slightly west-southwest on Monday. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to build over the eastern Gulf and Deep South. Light and variable winds are forecast to increase into the afternoon and evening on Saturday and Sunday at 5-10mph with the east coast sea breeze mainly along and south of I-4. Mostly dry to below normal rain chances are forecast over the weekend through Monday. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s with lows in the low to upper 70s. At least a Moderate to Major HeatRisk is forecast each day with a 20-40% chance of an Extreme HeatRisk for Lake county. A Major and Extreme HeatRisk affect anyone without adequate cooling and hydration. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Currently-Tonight... Favorable boating conditions are expected. Isolated showers and lightning storms are forecast to the north of Melbourne into the afternoon. West-southwest winds at 5-10kts are expected to turn east- southeast into the afternoon with the east coast sea breeze. Seas to 1-2ft are expected. Wednesday-Saturday... Favorable boating conditions are expected to continue. Isolated to widely scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast over the local Atlantic waters on Wednesday. Mostly dry to below normal rain chances are forecast Thursday to Saturday. An isolated generally offshore moving strong storm cannot be ruled out on Wednesday. West- southwest winds at 5-15kts are forecast to turn southeast in the afternoon and evening with the east coast sea breeze on Wednesday. West winds at 6-12kts are forecast to turn south- southeast each afternoon from Thursday to Saturday. Seas to 1-2ft are forecast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 124 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Light and variable winds tonight will increase to 5-10 KT and become SW after 14Z across the interior sites, and ESE along the coast after 16Z. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible along the east coast sea breeze and as it pushes inland. Thus, have maintained VCSH starting at 16Z along the coast, and starting at 19Z across the interior. Confidence remains too low at this time to include VCTS. Light and variable winds and dry conditions return along coastal sites after 20Z and, across the interior sites after 00Z Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 94 76 94 76 / 30 10 30 10 MCO 95 77 95 76 / 30 10 20 10 MLB 91 77 93 77 / 20 20 20 10 VRB 93 75 94 75 / 20 10 30 10 LEE 95 77 94 77 / 30 10 20 0 SFB 95 77 96 77 / 30 10 30 10 ORL 95 78 95 77 / 30 10 30 10 FPR 92 77 94 76 / 20 10 30 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259- 264-347-447-547-647-747. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1275003 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:12 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 205 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 104 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible today and tomorrow but as the week continues storms will become harder to come by. Storm motion will be slow so with any thunderstorm brief heavy rain is possible, cloud to ground lightning, and higher wind gusts. - Heat index readings will be close to advisory criteria this afternoon south and southwest of the tidal lakes but should remain just below 108 today. Later this week the heat index values will range between 105 and 110 and Heat Advisories may be needed. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Friday) Issued at 104 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Overall the forecast for the next few days will be one of slightly less storm coverage each day and slightly warmer (hotter) afternoon temps each day. As we have been mentioning the the mid lvl ridge, currently centered over FL will continue to work west into the region today and tomorrow. At the same time a ridge over the 4 corners will work east and these two will eventually merge over the Lower MS Valley and southern Plains late Wednesday. This is going to lead to rising hghts and mid lvl temps and by Thursday with the ridge centered over the region mid lvl hghts will be around 597dm with a h5 temps of -4 to -5. At the same time drier air will move back into the region with PWs dropping to below 1.5". But before Thursday and Friday we still have a chance of seeing isolated to widely scattered storms. The most likely location for seeing storms looks like it will be along the south shore and just into the lower River parishes. The reason for that is synoptic winds will be light and driven diurnally and with that we will see a weak seabreeze develop moving north across coastal SELA and with the light synoptic wind we should see a slightly stronger lake breeze push south across the southshore and where these two collide will be where the best chance for rain will be this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. By Thursday it will become a lot more difficult to get storms to develop. As for the heat, temps will slowly climb each day and obviously if storms can develop those locations will cool off temporarily but with mid 90s the next few days to possibly upper 90s in some locations later this week we will hover around Heat Advisory criteria. The one problem is it appears that the NBM has been underestimating the amount of mixing and thus no catching the dewpoints dropping as much which is keeping most of the area just below heat advisory criteria. That said as temps warm up we will likely see some areas need heat headlines later this week. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Monday) Issued at 104 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 By Friday night, the upper high will be centered along the Arkansas-Louisiana border. The axis of the high will drift westward over the weekend and be along the Texas-Oklahoma border on Monday, but still exerting it`s influence over the local area. At the surface, high pressure will continue across much of the northern Gulf during the period with any frontal boundaries well to the north of the area. Bottom line for the period, lots of hot weather, and not much more than isolated thunderstorms during the heat of the afternoons. Don`t see much more than 20 percent chance at any point this weekend, and many, if not most, areas will probably be dry all weekend. Any thunderstorms that do develop are likely to be along lake or sea breeze boundaries and propagate on boundary collisions from there. Expect high temperatures in the mid and upper 90s each day, with most lows 75 to 80. Won`t be particularly surprised if quite a few spots reach 100 degrees at some point, especially from Saturday through Monday. No doubt we`ll be needing Heat Advisories for at least portions of the area over the weekend, with more details as we get closer to the weekend. /RW/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 104 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 All terminals are in VFR and will continue to remain that way through much of the forecast. Winds will be light and the only real impact will be isolated storms. Greatest potential for storms will be along the south side of the Lake Pontchartrain and to the west late this afternoon. Confidence is not the greatest so only carrying PROB30 in those locations. /CAB/ && .MARINE... Issued at 104 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Through the workweek high pressure will dominate the coastal waters, centered just off to the east while the ridge axis basically stretches west across the Gulf Coast. This will lead to rather light winds through the forecast with winds over the near shore waters dictated by diurnal shifts with a sea breeze during the afternoon or a land breeze at night. The outer waters will also see light winds through the forecast, but winds will likely remain southerly to southeasterly. Thunderstorms will be possible each day; however, coverage will likely be more isolated to widely scattered. That said, with any thunderstorm activity expect lightning, heavy rain, gusty winds, and a few waterspouts. /CAB/ && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1275002 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:09 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 255 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 135 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 - A Heat Advisory is in effect today for all of South Florida. - Heat remains the primary hazard through next weekend. - Greatest rain chances for all of south Florida on Thursday. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 135 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Deep layer ridging will prevail across the Deep South and Florida over the next several days. The periodic amplification of the eastern CONUS trough will play a role in the position of the ridge axis which will have implications for low-level flow patterns and temperature forecasts. Over the next few days, global ensembles generally agree that while the core of the northern stream will remain mostly north of the CONUS, weak shortwaves will advect southeast through the Plains and Midwest. These waves will result in a slight amplification to the eastern CONUS trough Wed. into Thurs. This will push the ridge axis from over Florida into the Gulf. By the end of the week, the combination of a shortwave moving into the western CONUS and another moving through the Northeast will sharply amplify the ridge across then central and southern CONUS, including the Deep South and Florida. While there is quite a bit of disagreement in the ensembles regarding the timing and intensity of the Northeast shortwave, the general pattern across our region remains similar regardless. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 135 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 The aforementioned ridge, which ranks near the top end of climo for this time of year, will also result in deep layer temperatures well above normal. And while PWATs are generally lower than climatology due to the presence of the Saharan Air Layer, the low-level seabreeze flow will result in relatively high dewpoints along the coasts. Though it will be drier across the interior, actual temperatures will be higher without the `relief` of a seabreeze. This all means that we`re likely to reach heat advisory criteria (> 105-108) across all of south Florida, either due to higher humidity or higher temperatures. The westward advection of the ridge axis and west/south shift of the SAL may result in actual and apparent temperatures a few degrees cooler on Wednesday, though we may still flirt with heat advisory conditions at least for a few areas across south Florida. As far as rain chances are concerned, the background easterly flow will result in showers/storms being most likely across the interior in the afternoon, shifting towards the west coast in the evening. Though this pattern is expected, the SAL will likely act to reduce coverage and intensity across all of South Florida both afternoons. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 135 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Thursday will probably be the `coolest` and `wettest` of the period as the ridge axis will be furthest west and will be awaiting the northern stream shortwave to begin the amplification of the ridge pattern. It`ll still be hot, with highs generally in the middle 90s and heat indices nearing advisory levels, though there will probably be fewer upper 90 degree readings. With at least some component of northerly flow expected on Thursday, we`ll likely see the breezes pinned closer to the coast. However, we`ll also be more likely to see storms advect into the region from central Florida late in the day. Overall, coverage is expected to be highest on Thursday. The end of the week and into the weekend will feature the presence of the SAL once again and anomalous heights. Essentially another period of warmer and drier than normal conditions are expected. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 135 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 VFR will prevail through the TAF, with storms remaining mostly inland from the terminals. Light easterly flow will prevail, except in the afternoon at APF when flow shifts westerly with the onset of the seabreeze. && .MARINE... Issued at 135 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Light winds and low seas are expected through the week. Daily wind increases to around 10 knots are expected in the seabreeze zone, as well as a light chop. Shower and thunderstorm activity will remain fairly isolated and mostly limited to the morning hours for the east coast and the evening for the Gulf. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 92 80 93 79 / 10 0 40 10 West Kendall 93 76 93 76 / 10 10 50 10 Opa-Locka 93 79 94 79 / 10 0 40 10 Homestead 92 78 92 79 / 0 0 30 0 Fort Lauderdale 91 79 91 80 / 10 0 30 10 N Ft Lauderdale 92 79 92 79 / 10 0 30 10 Pembroke Pines 92 79 93 79 / 10 0 30 10 West Palm Beach 93 78 93 78 / 10 0 40 10 Boca Raton 91 79 92 78 / 10 0 30 10 Naples 92 79 91 79 / 10 20 30 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1275001 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:45 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 232 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Heat Advisory has been expanded to included Bladen county today with the latest forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mostly dry midweek with potential for extreme heat today through Friday. 2) Thunderstorm chances should increase again late Friday and Saturday with the approach of a cold front from the north. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly dry midweek with potential for extreme heat today through Friday. Today will kick off an extended period of hot and humid weather across our area with mid-level ridge extending across the Southeast from the Atlantic. Forecasted afternoon temperatures each day this week is in the upper 90s, with potential for a few sites reaching 100F at least one day this week. Combined with seasonably high dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, heat indices each afternoon will easily eclipse triple digits. Mixing down of drier air each afternoon may alleviate some of the humidity, but overall looking at multiple days of heat products needed. For today, a Heat Advisory remains in effect for coastal counties, and have added Bladen county to the advisory based on latest forecast. NWS HeatRisk highlights potential for extreme impacts from heat for our area Wed - Fri, with lows in the mid to upper 70s providing little to no relief. Rain chances are relatively low through early Friday due to the ridge`s influence. Several upper impulses may lead to widely scattered showers moving into our area later today and again late Wednesday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Thunderstorm chances should increase again late Friday and Saturday with the approach of a cold front from the north. The next best chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms will be late Friday and during the day Saturday. The upper air pattern should amplify late this week as a longwave trough takes shape just off the East Coast and the former Bermuda ridge retrogrades to the Mississippi Valley. Northwest flow aloft may push a cold front southward into the Carolinas Saturday, accompanied by cooler temperatures for the weekend and an uptick in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR. Lingering winds and drier air will hinder fog/stratus formation through morning, though shallow ground fog may develop especially where rain fell earlier today and winds go calm. Mostly clear skies during the day with a few diurnal cumulus clouds around 4-5 kft. Relatively light winds out of the west- southwest, with a southerly sea breeze pinned at the coast (impacting MYR/CRE) this afternoon. Extended Forecast...VFR should prevail through the rest of the week. Shallow ground fog is possible inland each early morning. The approach of a cold front from the north may lead to increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms again late Friday into Saturday. && .MARINE... Through Saturday...West-southwest winds will prevail across the local coastal waters through Friday due to Bermuda high pressure offshore. Wind speeds generally 10-15 kts, with gusts near 20 kts each afternoon/evening. Seas around 2-3 ft through Friday, with 4 footers in the 20-60nm zones Friday afternoon, primarily due to SSW wind wave with a weak ESE swell mixed in. A cold front will approach from the north late Friday, moving across the area sometime Friday night or Saturday, turning winds northeasterly for Saturday. The front will also be accompanied by an increase in thunderstorm chances. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ096-099-105>110. SC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054>056-058-059. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1275000 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 124 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 123 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts next week, with peak heat indices 110 to 115, especially Wednesday and Thursday. - Little to no rain chance through Thursday, limited 20% Friday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 123 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Decreasing moisture and building high pressure will keep rain chances to a minimal at least through Thursday. Some weaknesses will travel around the south side of the ridge, but these will remain mainly south of the area, and with PWAT values not much above normal values, think the best we can see is an isolated sea breeze shower, but meso models not even suggesting that for the next few days. By Friday the ridge does shift a bit northward allowing disturbances to get a little closer. Moisture will increase a bit Friday, but not substantially and will maintain only 20% PoPs. Seasonal temperatures are expected with a very slight uptick toward the second half of the week. Highs will be above 100 daily over the Rio Grande Plains and in the 90s east. Heat index values on Tuesday may briefly top 110 for a few locations, but this should be limited. Wednesday and Thursday have a better chance to have heat advisory level conditions. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 123 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Across the western Brush Country, southeast winds overnight will be at 10-15 kts, with all terminals climbing to 15-20 kts by 21Z. Aside from brief MVFR CIG/VIS between 10-13Z, expect mostly VFR conditions through the TAF cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 123 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Moderate southeasterly flow persists through the week for most of the area. South of Port Aransas in bays and along the coast a fresh breeze will be possible Wednesday and Thursday, and a localized small craft advisory may be needed. Rain chances will be low through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 123 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Min RHs will be in the 25-30% range each afternoon through the end of the week in the western Brush country and Rio Grande Plains. These low RHs combined with ERCs in the 70-89th percentile range will lead to elevated fire weather conditions over this region each day. Winds will generally be around 15 mph, with wind gusts in the 20-25 mph range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 95 79 96 79 / 10 0 0 0 Victoria 95 77 96 77 / 10 10 10 0 Laredo 104 78 106 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 100 75 101 75 / 10 0 0 0 Rockport 92 82 90 82 / 10 10 10 0 Cotulla 104 77 106 77 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 97 77 99 77 / 10 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 90 82 90 82 / 10 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274998 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:27 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 212 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Heat and Humidity Builds this Week through the Weekend. Heat Advisory For Parts of the Area Today. Heat Advisories Possible Each Afternoon and Evening from Wednesday through Sunday - Widely Scattered Afternoon & Evening TStorms Today- Thursday. A Few Strong Storms Are Possible Across Portions of Southeast GA this afternoon - Scattered Afternoon & Evening TStorms Friday - Sunday && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights: - Heat Advisory in effect from Noon to 7PM - Scattered Thunderstorms This Afternoon and Early Evening, more numerous along the Southeast Georgia coast - Brief Strong Storms Possible, Wind Gusts up to 40-50 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours - Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at Northeast Florida Beaches Light southerly winds along the coast less than 10 mph are trending calm inland under some remaining high level clouds. The clouds will thin out over the next few hours with mostly clear skies into sunrise as winds turn southwesterly along the coast. Temperatures in the mid 70s inland and upper 70s to low 80s along the coast will only cool another couple of degrees until dawn. Only very localized shallow ground fog expected the rest of the early morning. Today, mid level ridging aloft will be centered near the NE Gulf waters and stretch across the central FL peninsula. Subsidence underneath the ridge will suppress afternoon convection for much of inland areas along with PWATs under 2.0 inches, while northern and coastal portions of SE GA, thanks to PWATS elevating to 2.0 to 2.25 inches, will see scattered T`storms become numerous along the immediate coast as some shortwave energy aloft passes east southeast from central GA into SC and helps increase lift and instability there as the Atlantic seabreeze hovers along the coastline through the afternoon. Less coverage expected along the NE FL coast especially from Jacksonville southward due to suppression effects from the ridge and less shortwave energy influence aloft. A strong thunderstorm may produce briefly gusty winds 40-50 mph, with locally heavy downpours and frequent lightning. The predominant west to west southwest flow around the surface ridge south of the area and a trough to the northwest will lead to hot temperatures in the mid to upper 90s inland today with mid 90s at the coast as well as the Atlantic seabreeze not likely moving onshore beyond the beachfront communities this afternoon. The hot temperatures and moist, muggy dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will create heat indices well over 100 peaking 108-110 today. Therefore, a heat advisory is in effect from Noon to 7PM today before temperatures and heat indices fall near sunset. Tonight, a few thunderstorms may linger near the coast, before shifting and weakening as they move eastward due to more west to northwest upper level flow. After lingering mid to high level storm clouds disperse by midnight, skies will become mostly clear. Lows will be above normal in the mid 70s inland and the upper 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Daily Isolated to Scattered Afternoon Thunderstorms, some of which could be strong - Heat Index Values near Heat Advisory levels each day with near record high temperatures Wednesday, the area will continue to be influenced by a deep layer high pressure ridge in the Gulf and low pressure troughing along the coast. This will result in prevailing west to northwest flow through the mid levels. Suppressive affects from the ridge aloft and the low amounts of moisture in the lower levels continue to suggest near or below average rain chances, generally in the 20-40 percent range. Main areas of higher POPs will be along the east coast and around the I-10 corridor. Slight rain chances expected in the evening hours, and some lingering weak convection remains possible after midnight but confidence is low. The main concern will be the heat with heat index values near heat advisory with fairly high likelihood of an advisory. Highs in the mid to upper 90s are anticipated. For Thursday, subtle changes occur as the mid level ridge over the Gulf retrogrades toward the north central Gulf, while east coast troughing dips further south, and gradually into our northern zones by late Thursday. Models suggest still a decent chance of showers and storms, about 30-40 percent from I-10 southward, and about 20- 30 percent toward inland southeast GA. Isolated storms expected in the evening as well, and there is some potential for overnight activity given the disturbances aloft in the northwesterly flow but for now given low confidence/coverage will advertise 10 percent chance. Of course, little relief from the heat with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Heat indices are likely to reach heat advisory criteria so have medium to high confidence we`ll need an advisory. Each day, a few storms may be strong given steep low level lapse and the fairly high PWAT air. Noted downdraft CAPE of about 700-900 J/kg are seen in NAM BUFR soundings. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Scattered Afternoon/Evening Thunderstorms Each Day - Heat Advisory Potential Each Day. Near record high temperatures - Higher chances for thunderstorms on Friday Surface high pressure ridge continues to push south of the area Friday into the weekend, as prefrontal troughing and a weak front move south along the east coast. Low level troughing is noted in guidance over our north parts of the forecast area Saturday into Sunday. It looks like some enhanced chance of showers and storms each day, probably near or above average. There may be some tapering off of chances on Monday but confidence at the day 7 day frame is low. Above average temperatures will continue into the weekend with daily max temps rising into the mid to upper 90s and heat index values reaching 105 to 110 and likely reaching heat advisory levels during periods of peak heating. The only thing that could hamper reaching heat advisory is if cloudiness develops quickly and convection begins by early afternoon hours and limits our heat indices. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions observed at this hour will trend to MVFR at VQQ with restrictions for LIFR visibility/ceilings in the pre dawn morning hours 07-11Z, otherwise VFR at all other sites through sunrise. Surface high will be centered over the northeast Gulf waters into central FL today with westerly to west southwesterly winds 5-8 knots after 14Z with low level cumulus 1.5 kft rising to 3.0-4.0 kft this afternoon. The westerly flow and Gulf seabreeze will develop T`storms along the pinned Atlantic seabreeze that will slowly shift onshore past SGJ and remains near SSI and likely not move through CRG. Have VCTS coverage of T`storms over the coastal and Duval TAF sites after 19Z with PROB30 group at SSI where higher moisture and instability will focus better T`storm coverage which could bring restrictions for MVFR ceilings/IFR visibility from heavy downpours. Convection will end after 00Z but VCSH may continue a bit at SSI until 02Z. Light south to southwest winds and decreasing mid and high clouds are expected to end the TAF period. && .MARINE... Today, Atlantic high pressure will shift south and westward as a trough forms over the southeastern states, with winds prevailing west-southwesterly this morning and more westerly the rest of the week. Each afternoon, the sea breeze will shift winds southeasterly over the near shore waters through the upcoming weekend, followed by southerly evening wind surges which may briefly increase to near caution levels. Scattered thunderstorms may push east from the coast into the coastal waters this evening. Scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will remain possible each day through the upcoming weekend. Rip Currents: A lower end moderate risk may continue at the northeast FL beaches this afternoon as breezy onshore winds develop following the passage of the sea breeze. Low surf heights will likely yield a low risk at the southeast GA beaches. A low risk is then expected from Wednesday through at least Saturday at area beaches as offshore winds and low surf heights prevail. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy High Afternoon Dispersions Beginning Tuesday Light west to southwest winds will keep the Atlantic seabreeze near the coast each day, with lower thunderstorm coverage expected today through Wednesday and forecast to be around 20-40%. A few strong thunderstorms may produce gusty outflows with locally erratic winds. Temperatures will rise into the mid 90s inland and lower to mid 90s at the coast today and Wednesday with peak heat index values rising to heat advisory levels to about 106-110 into midweek. A heat advisory is in effect for parts of the area today, and may be needed again on Wednesday. Patchy high daytime dispersions expected today into Wednesday as mixing heights increase along with increasing westerly transport winds. Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected, with shallow, patchy fog late overnight limited to areas that receive locally heavy rainfall. && .CLIMATE... Daily record high temperatures are possible by Thu-Fri: Thursday, August 13th: KJAX: 99/2023 KAMG: 100/9999 KCRG: 96/2023 Friday, August 14th: KJAX: 99/2023 KGNV: 97/2023 KAMG: 101/2023 KCRG: 98/2023 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 95 76 95 76 / 40 20 20 10 SSI 93 79 95 79 / 60 30 30 10 JAX 96 75 94 75 / 60 40 50 10 SGJ 93 76 94 76 / 30 20 40 20 GNV 95 74 93 75 / 30 0 20 10 OCF 95 74 94 75 / 20 0 10 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138- 140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425- 433-522-533-633. GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ153-154-165-166. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1274999 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:27 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 224 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 - Hazardous heat is expected through much of the week into the upcoming weekend with heat index values of 105-112 likely. Heat Advisories are in effect for the eastern FL Panhandle & Big Bend and far southwest GA for this afternoon. - Isolated showers and storms will be possible each day. The strongest storms could produce gusty winds and frequent lightning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 A mid-upper level ridge axis moves overhead today, beginning our heat wave that will last through much of this week into the weekend. High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 90s, except along the coast where highs will reach the low 90s. With southwesterly to westerly flow, we`ll continue to have rich Gulf moisture move in, giving us humid conditions as well. With PWATs of 1.8 to 2 inches, we may not mix out as effectively as previous days, meaning we`ll stay pretty humid into the afternoon hours. Heat index values will rise to the 103 to 110 degree range this afternoon. The highest heat indices will be across the eastern Florida Panhandle and Big Bend and far southwest Georgia. This is where a Heat Advisory is in effect for this afternoon. If you`re working outdoors, stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in an air conditioned space, and wear light clothing. Isolated showers and storms are possible today, mainly near the sea breeze in the Florida counties and along and north of US 82 as a weak disturbance moves across northern and central Georgia. These will fade pretty quickly this evening. Lows will be in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 The ridge then breaks off, becoming centered along the north central Gulf Coast, nearly on top of us. This will lead to the heat continuing and possibly increasing as well with many areas in the upper 90s by the end of the week into this weekend. It will also still be quite humid given persistent southwesterly surface flow off the Gulf and abundant moisture through the atmosphere preventing effective mixing. This will result in heat indices in the 108-112 range almost every afternoon, increasing in coverage heading into the weekend. We will probably need Heat Advisories for at least parts of the area each day through the rest of the week. Some areas could even approach "extreme heat" thresholds (heat index values of 113 or greater) Friday and this weekend. This ridge keeps a lid on rain chances through at least Thursday with rain chances only around 20-30%. By Friday, the ridge pivots more toward the west, which will open the door for disturbances to ride around the periphery of the ridge into our area this weekend. Thus, while we will still be potentially dangerously hot and humid, we should see at least an increase in rain chances to the 30-50% range, potentially higher should a more organized complex of storms take shape with one of those shortwaves rounding the ridge. Early next week, the ridge builds back to the east again, which will prolong the heat and bring a return to reduced rain chances. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. The lone exception could be brief MVFR/IFR ceilings restrictions across ECP/DHN near sunrise. Isolated TSRA is possible again this afternoon, mostly from 18z-00z. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Gentle to moderate southwesterly breezes will continue over the next several days. A slight uptick in winds in the nearshore waters and bays is possible as the sea breeze develops each afternoon. Isolated showers and storms will mostly be confined to land areas, but nearshore morning showers or storms could pose a waterspout risk. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Southwest to west transport winds around 5-15 mph will continue through Thursday. Dispersions will be good each afternoon, but could be locally high close to the I-75 corridor in GA. Isolated showers and storms are possible each afternoon, generally starting near the coast in the late morning or early afternoon, then moving inland through the afternoon hours. Gusty, erratic winds and frequent lightning are possible in and near storms. Otherwise, hazardous heat will be expected each day with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values of 103-112. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Localized heavy downpours are possible in afternoon thunderstorms. However, widespread flood concerns are not expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 96 76 97 77 / 20 0 30 0 Panama City 92 79 92 79 / 10 0 10 0 Dothan 95 75 96 76 / 10 10 30 0 Albany 96 77 96 77 / 20 10 30 10 Valdosta 97 76 97 76 / 10 10 40 10 Cross City 94 76 95 76 / 10 0 10 10 Apalachicola 91 79 93 79 / 20 0 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ010>019-027>029-034-112- 114-115-118-127-326-426. GA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ155-156. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274997 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:12 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 205 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased uncertainty regarding shower potential Wednesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Yet another very warm and humid day is expected today, followed by a gradual transition to cooler and drier conditions through the end of the work week. Much more comfortable weather is expected this weekend into early next week. - Rain chances increase during the second half of the work week as a frontal boundary settles across the region, followed by a return to dry weather for the weekend. Rain chances may increase again early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Yet another very warm and humid day is expected today, followed by a gradual transition to cooler and drier conditions through the end of the work week. Much more comfortable weather is expected this weekend into early next week. One more day of heat and humidity is on tap today, with 925mb temperatures of +20C to +23C supporting highs well into the middle to upper 80s. Dew points in the lower to middle 60s will make it feel warmer, with heat indices reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s. This will result in Moderate HeatRisk, particularly along the I-95 corridor, with those most sensitive to heat and those without adequate cooling or hydration most susceptible to impacts. The pattern begins to change Wednesday as temperatures aloft gradually cool, with 925mb temperatures falling from the lower 20s Celsius today into the teens Celsius by Friday. Dew points will follow suit, dropping from the 60s today into the 50s by late this week. The result will be a noticeably cooler and more refreshing airmass by Friday. A quasi-stationary front will be the primary driver of this transition. The front is expected to linger near southern New England late Wednesday into Thursday, keeping the region in a more unsettled pattern. As the front finally pushes offshore Friday, as a cold front, drier air will filter into the region behind it, aided by high pressure building southward from central Canada. The weekend is shaping up to be the most comfortable stretch of weather in quite some time, with highs generally in the upper 70s across interior southern New England and lower 80s along the coastal plain. Dew points in the 50s will make for much more comfortable conditions, while overnight lows fall into the 50s Saturday and Sunday nights. These pleasant conditions may continue into early next week, although the forecast becomes more unsettled by then. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances increase during the second half of the work week as a frontal boundary settles across the region, followed by a return to dry weather for the weekend. Rain chances may increase again early next week. Dry weather and a good deal of sunshine are expected today, although skies may become somewhat filtered by elevated smoke from distant wildfires. Tonight, a weak system passing south of New England could produce a shower or rumble of thunder across the extreme south coast and Islands, but probabilities remain low at less than 15 percent. Wednesday remains a lower-confidence portion of the forecast. While most guidance keeps a fast-moving low pressure system south of New England, there are some notable differences in the guidance. The 00z NAM develops a robust 995 mb surface low near the Benchmark (40N/70W), while the 3 km NAM also depicts a surface low in the vicinity, though considerably weaker. AI guidance likewise maintains the surface wave south of New England. Given the overall consensus, the current forecast favors a track south of the region, with little to no precipitation expected during the day Wednesday. The forecast becomes more active Wednesday night into Thursday as a quasi- stationary front settles across the Northeast. Weak surface lows riding along the boundary will provide multiple opportunities for showers, with precipitation chances increasing from late Wednesday night through Thursday night. While periods of showers are likely, the setup does not currently favor continuous rainfall across the region. The front should finally push offshore early Friday, allowing drier air to move into southern New England as high pressure builds southward from central Canada. This will usher in the dry and much more comfortable conditions expected for the weekend. High pressure should remain the dominant feature through the weekend, supporting sunny to mostly sunny skies, low humidity, and seasonable temperatures. Beyond the weekend, the pattern becomes less settled, with increasing rain chances possible early next week as the next system approaches. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00z Update: No significant deviations from the prior forecast. Worth noting, high-resolution guidance suggests wildfire smoke from out west may lead to hazy conditions Tuesday afternoon, though confidence is lower regarding the potential impacts on terminals. Today...High confidence. VFR. West to west-northwest winds 8 to 12 kt. Winds across Cape Cod and the Islands will be west-southwest at 10 to 12 kt, with gusts up to 18 kt. As mentioned, there is a possibility for wildfire smoke to reach southern New England this afternoon and remain elevated, likely resulting in hazy skies and, at worst, visibility reductions to 5-6SM. Tonight...High confidence. VFR. Light and variable winds. There is a low probability for a shower to impact the Islands. Wednesday...High confidence. VFR. Light westerly winds. Potential for localized sea breezes to develop along the coast, including KBOS. KBOS Terminal...High confidence. Wildfire smoke aloft possible. KBDL Terminal...High confidence. Wildfire smoke aloft possible. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/... Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Wednesday...High confidence. No significant weather expected through this period, with winds and seas remaining below advisory criteria. Winds today will be west to southwest, gusting at times to around 20 kt, especially across the waters south of Rhode Island toward Buzzards Bay and Vineyard Sound. Elsewhere, winds will be 10 to 15 kt. On Wednesday, localized sea breezes may develop near shore, while offshore winds remain variable at less than 10 kt. Seas will remain below 3 ft throughout the forecast period. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/... Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Dooley |
| #1274996 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 145 AM AST Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 145 AM AST Tue Aug 11 2026 - Showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase today, with the greatest localized flooding risk expected during this period. Lightning and gusty winds will also be possible. - Heat risks will remain elevated through the week, although increased clouds and showers may limit daytime heating today. Significant heat risk becomes more likely Wednesday as drier conditions and greater sunshine return, with another increase possible this weekend. Warm overnight temperatures will continue to provide limited relief. - Stronger trade winds will develop late this week and continue into the weekend, increasing wind and marine hazards, building seas, and resulting in a high risk of rip currents beginning Thursday. - NHC continues to monitor multiple Atlantic disturbances. It remains too early to determine any potential impacts to Puerto Rico or the U.S. Virgin Islands. && .Short Term(Today through Thursday)... Issued at 145 AM AST Tue Aug 11 2026 A tropical wave will move across the northeastern Caribbean today into early Wednesday, with its axis crossing the Lesser Antilles this morning and the local area tonight before reaching Hispaniola Wednesday morning. A broad surge of tropical moisture ahead of and along the wave will increase precipitable water to around 2 inches today, while an upper-level trough near the eastern Greater Antilles provides some additional support for convection. Drier Saharan air will gradually spread into the region behind the wave Wednesday, becoming more established Wednesday night into Thursday. At the same time, the Atlantic ridge will shift southward and strengthen the local pressure gradient, resulting in increasing easterly trade winds Wednesday night through Thursday. Another tropical wave will approach the Lesser Antilles late Thursday, but its main influence should remain east of the local area through the end of the period. The greatest rainfall and thunderstorm potential will occur today as tropical moisture combines with daytime heating, sea-breeze convergence, and local terrain effects. Showers will increase across the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico, followed by scattered afternoon convection across interior and western Puerto Rico. Although weak mid-level lapse rates should limit widespread deep convection, sufficient moisture and instability will support isolated thunderstorms capable of lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall, with localized urban and small- stream flooding possible. Increased cloud cover and shower activity may limit daytime heating today, although localized elevated heat risk will remain possible where longer periods of sunshine occur. Residual moisture may support additional showers early Wednesday before drying increases and convective coverage decreases. Greater sunshine and warm low-level temperatures should then allow heat risk to increase, with significant heat impacts possible Wednesday across the typically warmer urban and coastal areas. Warm overnight temperatures will continue to provide limited relief. By Thursday, below-normal moisture, Saharan dust, and increasing trade winds should limit rainfall mainly to brief windward showers while promoting hazy and breezy conditions. && .Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)... Issued at 145 AM AST Tue Aug 11 2026 A tightening pressure gradient associated with the Atlantic high is expected to support breezy to locally windy east to northeast winds through much of the long-term period. Gusty conditions could affect unsecured outdoor items, particularly across exposed coastal and higher-elevation areas. Winds could approach advisory criteria at times, although confidence in the magnitude and duration of the strongest winds remains limited. Saharan dust and a relatively dry air mass should otherwise dominate much of the period, with precipitable water values generally remaining below normal near 1.3 inches. Intermittent patches of low-level moisture may support passing windward showers and highly localized afternoon convection. Elevated heat risk will also persist, with locally significant heat impacts possible across the warmer urban and coastal areas. Warm overnight temperatures will continue to provide limited relief. Forecast uncertainty increases considerably late in the period as the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a tropical disturbance over the central Atlantic. While development is possible as the system moves generally westward, considerable uncertainty remains regarding its eventual track, intensity, timing, and whether it could have any direct or indirect influence on Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands early next week. Continue to monitor subsequent forecasts and Tropical Weather Outlooks from the National Hurricane Center as the forecast evolves. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 145 AM AST Tue Aug 11 2026 Increasing moisture ahead of an approaching TW will support frequent SHRA across the terminals through the day. ISOLD TSRA are possible near TJSJ, with greater TSRA coverage expected in and around TJBQ during the aftn. Brief MVFR or lower CIG/VSBY are possible with heavier SHRA/TSRA. HZ may also reduce VSBY to around 6SM at times. SFC winds 10-15 kt, increasing to 15-20 kt after 11/13Z, with higher gusts and VRB winds near convection. && .MARINE... Issued at 145 AM AST Tue Aug 11 2026 The broad Atlantic ridge extending from the western into the central Atlantic will continue to promote moderate easterly winds across the local waters today. A tropical wave crossing the eastern Caribbean will increase shower and thunderstorm activity, with locally higher winds and seas possible near stronger convection. Marine conditions will deteriorate toward the end of the workweek as the local pressure gradient tightens and easterly winds strengthen. Fresh to locally strong winds and increasingly rough seas are expected across portions of the offshore waters and local passages, resulting in hazardous conditions for small craft. Small Craft Advisories will likely be required for some of these waters. Pulses of Saharan dust will also persist through the week, occasionally reducing visibility. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 145 AM AST Tue Aug 11 2026 A moderate risk of rip currents continues along many of the northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, as well as portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands. A tropical wave crossing the region today will also increase the potential for showers and thunderstorms near coastal areas. Periods of heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning will be possible, and beachgoers should seek shelter whenever thunder is heard. Beach conditions are expected to become increasingly hazardous toward the end of the workweek as strengthening easterly winds generate larger breaking waves along exposed coastlines. The rip current risk will likely increase to high across many north- and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Life-threatening rip currents will become more likely, and Rip Current Statements may be required as conditions deteriorate. Residents, visitors, and beachgoers should monitor subsequent forecasts and any statements issued over the next few days. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 145 AM AST Tue Aug 11 2026 A more humid environment today should generally limit the potential for critical fire weather conditions. However, very dry and stressed fuels, along with high KBDI values, remain a concern across Puerto Rico. Therefore, despite higher moisture levels, locally breezy conditions could still support fire growth and spread where ignitions occur. Outdoor burning is discouraged given the current state of the fuels. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1274995 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1251 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1250 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 - Unseasonably hot high temperatures through the forecast. - Dry weather, with isolated convection possible on Friday. - Slightly adverse winds Wednesday through Friday for mariners. - Elevated risk of rip currents for the second half of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1004 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will be positioned on the western periphery of 500 mb high pressure that will remain centered roughly over Louisiana during the forecast period. This will produce dry weather for a majority of the next several days. However, a slight chance of isolated convection exists for Friday, as an inverted mid-level trough sneaks under the 500 mb high and moves into extreme northeast Mexico. Temperature-wise, daily high temperatures will inch up a degree or two each successive day into well above normal levels. This will cause a Moderate to Major Heat Risk across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley to become Major to Extreme as the week progresses, eventually easing for the weekend back into Moderate to Major territory. Finally, with a gradually tightening pressure gradient along the Lower Texas Coast expected, a Moderate to High Risk of rip currents at the local beaches will likely occur daily. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Light southeast winds with a few low clouds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Light winds will continue overnight becoming moderate to breezy later this morning into the afternoon. VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1004 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 It continues to be expected that the pressure gradient over the western Gulf of America will become enhanced during the forecast period. Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas initially will become moderate to breezy winds and moderate to slightly adverse seas beginning around the middle of the week. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and possibly Small Craft Advisory will be needed Wednesday through Friday to account for the anticipated stronger winds and higher seas. Marine conditions should then improve for the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 96 81 97 82 / 10 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 99 77 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 102 81 104 81 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 103 79 104 78 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 81 90 82 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 96 80 97 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274994 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1235 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1235 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 - Heat indices around 100-107 degrees are expected today, increasing mid week on. - A Moderate risk of rip currents returns to Florida beaches the latter half of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1204 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Through Thursday night, an upper level shortwave trough digging off the East Coast shifts an upper high over the northern Gulf Coast, westward, to over the northwestern Gulf Coast. A surface high over the eastern Gulf shifts west to over the central Gulf in response, with a drier airmass over the Gulf (precipitable h20 values less than 1.5") shifting north over the northern Gulf and Lower Mississippi River Valley. This displaces the moist airmass over the forecast area eastward to varying extents, depending upon the model. Add in an upper level shortwave trough passing over the northeast side of the upper ridge Wednesday, and a dry, subsidence caused day Tuesday sees isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern half of the forecast area Wednesday. Thursday, PoPs drop to isolated, mainly over areas southeast of I-65 as moisture levels drop and upper subsidence returns and builds east a bit, even as the upper high shifts west. Temperatures see a bit of an increase with dropping moisture levels, especially over the western half of the forecast area along with upper subsidence increasing a bit with the building upper high. High temperatures away from the coast rise from the 92-97 degree range Tuesday rise into the 94 to 99 degree range Thursday. Along the coast, high temperatures around 90 are expected through mid week. Heat indices rise from the 100-107 degree range over most of the forecast area Tuesday rise into the 105 to 110 degree range Thursday. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed Wednesday, though the extent is hard to pin down at this time. Friday though the weekend, The upper ridge centered over the northwestern Gulf coast shifts north, to over the Southern/Central Plains, surface high pressure shifts to over the Southern Plains in response. As the upper high moves off over the central Conus, increased moisture over the eastern half of the Southeast shifts west over the region (and the forecast area), but an upper building east over the Southeast will keep good upper subsidence over the region, helping to limit PoPs to isolated to low end scattered at best over the forecast area into the coming week. Temperatures see a small uptick into the weekend, along with Heat Indices.. Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a general Low Risk is expected into mid week, with the onshore flow less organized. An uptick to a low Moderate is indicated for the end of the week, especially over our Florida beaches. /16 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through this evening. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 1204 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 92 75 93 76 / 10 0 30 0 Pensacola 91 78 92 79 / 20 0 20 0 Destin 90 79 91 80 / 10 0 10 0 Evergreen 94 75 94 75 / 10 10 30 0 Waynesboro 96 75 97 75 / 10 0 20 10 Camden 93 75 93 75 / 10 10 20 0 Crestview 94 74 95 75 / 10 0 30 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274993 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 132 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 239 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 - Hot and humid conditions continue the next several days. Peak heat index values will easily reach 102-107F. Potential to reach Heat Advisory criteria (108-110F) will exist for portions of the area this week. - Near to below normal rain chances this week. The drier air aloft will support strong gusty winds in storms each day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Thru tonight...Upper air sounding from XMR this morning showed noticeably drier air through the column with PWAT down to 1.8" with the bulk of that moisture below 900 mb. Atlc sea breeze is pushing inland sparking isolated showers and some of these will develop into lightning storms over the interior as boundary collisions increase. The drier air aloft is producing high DCAPE values over 1100 J/kg so any deep convection will be capable of gusty winds up to 50 mph but coverage looks limited (~30%). Convection will wind down over the far interior by 10 pm. Tue-Sun...High pressure ridge aloft moves in and holds across the area. The assocd suppression/subsidence as well as another plume of Saharan air will contribute to dry mid levels and below normal storm chances. While skies may become more hazy this week due to the Saharan dust, the particulates are suspended mostly aloft and do not typically cause air quality issues at the sfc here in central FL. There is a gradual rise in rain chances Thu-Fri as moisture/convergence pools on the north side of the low level ridge axis. Then drier air moves back in this weekend and limits rain chances, especially Sunday. Any storms that do manage to form will have the potential to become strong, producing strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph and frequent lightning strikes. Weak steering winds will also allow for heavy downpours from some storms, producing locally heavy rainfall of 1-2" each day. These drier than normal conditions will allow for rising heat impacts through the week as little relief will be found from afternoon convection. Max temps will reach the low to mid 90s each day. Peak heat index values will easily reach 102-107F, and will have to monitor the need for additional Heat Advisories as portions of the area should see heat index values rise to 108-110F. Warm and muggy overnight temps in the mid to upper 70s will also amplify the overall heat impacts, with widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk forecast for much of the area each day. Continuing to follow heat safety practices will remain important as we go through the week. && .MARINE... Issued at 239 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Favorable boating conditions are forecast to continue this week. The Atlantic ridge axis north of the area will settle south across the local Atlc waters tonight and Tue and then reach south FL Wed. SE winds will become S/SW Tue and W/SW by Wed-Thu. However, the offshore flow will remain weak enough for the east coast sea breeze to still form each afternoon with winds becoming onshore (SE) near the coast at 10-15 knots. Seas to 1-2 feet are forecast this week. Shower and lightning storm chances will be below normal this week with coverage at 30% or less. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 124 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Light and variable winds tonight will increase to 5-10 KT and become SW after 14Z across the interior sites, and ESE along the coast after 16Z. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible along the east coast sea breeze and as it pushes inland. Thus, have maintained VCSH starting at 16Z along the coast, and starting at 19Z across the interior. Confidence remains too low at this time to include VCTS. Light and variable winds and dry conditions return along coastal sites after 20Z and, across the interior sites after 00Z Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 94 76 94 76 / 30 10 30 10 MCO 95 77 95 76 / 30 10 20 10 MLB 91 77 93 77 / 20 20 20 10 VRB 93 75 94 75 / 20 10 30 10 LEE 95 77 94 77 / 30 10 20 0 SFB 95 77 96 77 / 30 10 30 10 ORL 95 78 95 77 / 30 10 30 10 FPR 92 77 94 76 / 20 10 30 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259- 264-347-447-547-647-747. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1274991 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:15 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1257 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1252 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon, albeit lower than normal. Stronger storms could contain gusty winds and frequent lightning. - Triple digit heat indices are expected throughout the week. Heat Advisories may be needed at some point for potential feels-like temperatures of 108F+ degrees. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 307 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Fairly benign weather conditions are expected over the next week as a high pressure belt settles over the southern half of CONUS. A backdoor cold front will look to squeeze through Friday into Saturday with near normal rain chances expected. Otherwise, below average rain chances are expected throughout most of the forecast period with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible each afternoon. Afternoon high temps will be in the 90s with overnight lows in the 70s. Feel-like temperatures throughout the week will be in the 100s, with potential heat advisory conditions (Heat Index of at least 108F) from mid- week through this weekend as moisture increases and rain chances remain below average. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. The lone exception could be brief MVFR/IFR ceilings restrictions across ECP/DHN near sunrise. Isolated TSRA is possible again this afternoon, mostly from 18z-00z. && .MARINE... Issued at 307 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Gentle to moderate southwesterly breezes will continue over the next several days. A slight uptick in winds in the nearshore waters and bays is possible as the sea breeze develops each afternoon. Isolated showers and storms will mostly be confined to land areas, but nearshore morning showers or storms could pose a waterspout risk. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 307 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Southwest to west transport winds around 5-10 mph will continue through Tuesday, increasing to 10-15 mph on Wednesday. Dispersions will be good each afternoon, but could be locally high close to the I-75 corridor in GA. Widely scattered showers and storms are possible each afternoon, starting in the FL zones early in the afternoon, then moving into the AL and GA zones late afternoon. Gusty, erratic winds and frequent lightning are possible in and near storms. Otherwise, hazardous heat will be expected each day with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values of 103- 110. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 307 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Localized nuisance-type flooding is possible if heavier thunderstorms move slowly each afternoon. However, widespread flood concerns are not expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 96 76 96 77 / 10 10 30 0 Panama City 92 79 92 79 / 10 0 10 0 Dothan 95 75 95 76 / 10 10 20 0 Albany 95 76 95 76 / 20 10 20 10 Valdosta 97 76 96 76 / 10 10 30 10 Cross City 94 75 94 76 / 10 0 10 10 Apalachicola 91 79 91 79 / 10 0 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274990 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:15 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1205 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1204 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 - Isolated to scattered storms are expected through Tuesday. - Heat indices around 100-107 degrees are expected through Tuesday, increasing mid week on. - A Moderate risk of rip currents returns to Florida beaches the latter half of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1204 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Through Thursday night, an upper level shortwave trough digging off the East Coast shifts an upper high over the northern Gulf Coast, westward, to over the northwestern Gulf Coast. A surface high over the eastern Gulf shifts west to over the central Gulf in response, with a drier airmass over the Gulf (precipitable h20 values less than 1.5") shifting north over the northern Gulf and Lower Mississippi River Valley. This displaces the moist airmass over the forecast area eastward to varying extents, depending upon the model. Add in an upper level shortwave trough passing over the northeast side of the upper ridge Wednesday, and a dry, subsidence caused day Tuesday sees isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern half of the forecast area Wednesday. Thursday, PoPs drop to isolated, mainly over areas southeast of I-65 as moisture levels drop and upper subsidence returns and builds east a bit, even as the upper high shifts west. Temperatures see a bit of an increase with dropping moisture levels, especially over the western half of the forecast area along with upper subsidence increasing a bit with the building upper high. High temperatures away from the coast rise from the 92-97 degree range Tuesday rise into the 94 to 99 degree range Thursday. Along the coast, high temperatures around 90 are expected through mid week. Heat indices rise from the 100-107 degree range over most of the forecast area Tuesday rise into the 105 to 110 degree range Thursday. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed Wednesday, though the extent is hard to pin down at this time. Friday though the weekend, The upper ridge centered over the northwestern Gulf coast shifts north, to over the Southern/Central Plains, surface high pressure shifts to over the Southern Plains in response. As the upper high moves off over the central Conus, increased moisture over the eastern half of the Southeast shifts west over the region (and the forecast area), but an upper building east over the Southeast will keep good upper subsidence over the region, helping to limit PoPs to isolated to low end scattered at best over the forecast area into the coming week. Temperatures see a small uptick into the weekend, along with Heat Indices.. Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a general Low Risk is expected into mid week, with the onshore flow less organized. An uptick to a low Moderate is indicated for the end of the week, especially over our Florida beaches. /16 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 VFR conditions prevail throughout the period, outside of any storms this evening. Coverage of storms over the next 2 hours should remain inland from the TAF sites. Light and variable winds are expected overnight. Another round of isolated storms is expected by Tuesday afternoon. 07/mb && .MARINE... Issued at 1204 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 75 93 76 94 / 0 30 0 10 Pensacola 78 92 79 93 / 0 20 0 10 Destin 79 91 80 91 / 0 10 0 10 Evergreen 75 94 75 94 / 10 30 0 10 Waynesboro 75 97 75 98 / 0 20 10 10 Camden 75 93 75 94 / 10 20 0 0 Crestview 74 95 75 95 / 0 30 0 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274989 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:09 AM 11.Aug.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1205 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot weather and low rain chances expected over the next several days. - Greater heat stress and higher risk of triple digit highs this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Rain chances are only downhill from this point forward as ridging slowly builds throughout the Gulf Coast. A few isolated showers and possibly a storm or two could develop this afternoon along the sea breeze. Wednesday will see rain chances become very sparse to near zero for the foreseeable future, save for the occasional passing disturbance undercutting the ridge. Speaking of the ridge, it is still progged to shift north into the SE CONUS and intensify by the weekend. Midlevel heights are forecasted to reach 596-598 dam over SE Texas by this point, putting them over the 99th climatological percentile (NAEFS). LREF & NBM ensembles suggest greater chances for triple digit high temperatures occuring on these days, as well as early next week. WBGT Heat stress on the human body is forecasted to be high, with some isolated spots peaking at extreme. Highs will be in the 90s, breaking triple digits in spots, and heat indicies will range from 100-107 at least. Will be closely monitoring the heat each day as a result. Chances for heat-related hazard headlines still look more favorable this weekend through early next week. 03 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 For the 11/00Z TAF update, ridging will gradually begin to influence the southeast Texas airspace with convective potential waning by tomorrow afternoon. That said, the lower potential for -SHRA/-TSRA remains mostly along and south of KIAH by 11/18Z-23Z. This, in combination with some additional patchy FG, means windows for MVFR/IFR vis/cigs at 11/12Z-15Z and 11/18Z-23Z, respectively. Southerly winds will also remain in the 5-10 kts. range, maximizing in speeds near 10 kts. by the end of the period. Cassel && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Light to moderate onshore winds and seas of 2-4 feet are expected today through around Wednesday. During the second half of the work week, winds and seas will increase slightly, potentially warranting caution flags at times. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 97 76 98 77 / 10 20 0 0 Houston (IAH) 96 79 97 79 / 20 20 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 91 84 91 84 / 20 10 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
