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| #1285203 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:03 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 854 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Minor coastal flooding will continue across the Upper Keys around the times of high tide, but high tides peaks will continue to trend downward. - Rain chances will remain near to below normal through mid week, with dewpoints remaining in the lower 70s. - The first strong cold front of the season will push through the Keys on Friday, and will open the door for a period of breezy to windy conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 854 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 KBYX has remained quiet for the last few hours with only a few showers in the distant offshore waters earlier this evening. Temperatures along the island chain are near 80 with dew points in the lower 70s. Marine locations along the Reef are reporting east to southeasterly winds at near 10 knots. Tonight`s 00z sounding revealed another relatively dry profile with PWAT just above the daily mean value according to SPC Climatology. For the rest of the night into tomorrow conditions are expected to remain similar with near nil rain chances and east to southeasterly light to gentle breezes. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Upper Keys. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 A weak and broad area of high pressure is gradually passing across the area as it shifts from the southeastern Gulf to the Bahamas and western Atlantic. The center of this high is difficult to make out on satellite-derived products, but the anticyclonic flow of the cloud field suggests that the center of this high may be situated somewhere near, or over, South Florida. Our radar has remained dry this afternoon, likely due to a combination of the stable atmosphere and the decrease in moisture in the vertical column. Satellite-derived layered PWAT suggests that the pocket of air aloft has around a third of an inch less of water in the vertical column, or around 1.25", compared to this morning. This high pressure will continue to make its way toward the Bahamas and the western Atlantic, and will allow for a brief period of even lighter surface winds. Our relatively benign weather conditions will continue through Wednesday night/Thursday morning as the high shifts farther away. Over the course of Thursday and Friday, a pattern change will be underway for the Sunshine State. A cold front will progress down the peninsula, and is expected to knock on our backdoor sometime Thursday night and Friday. The tightening pressure gradient will result in a window of breezy conditions with a cooler northwesterly wind. Rain chances will also peak, around 30%, but the precise sensible weather will depend on just how far southerly the front can go. Guidance continues to favor the front lifting out of the area over the weekend, and a brief period of drier, cooler conditions will be left in its place. However, some ensemble members are highlighting the opportunity for an area of high pressure to take its place, and to reinforce the breezy to windy conditions from next Monday onward. Wind directions will shift northeasterly, but there is some question as to what kind of influence this will have on "backing up" the Gulf stream. Coastal Flood products may be needed once again early next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 854 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Upper Keys. Elsewhere, no watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect. From synopsis, high pressure will gradually track through the southeastern U.S. and will move into the Bahamas and western North Atlantic over the next couple of days. This will allow for east to southeast breezes to undergo a slow slackening process through Wednesday night. Thereafter, a strong cold front will steadily march towards the Keys and is expected to push through the Keys marine zones on Friday morning. As a result, breezes will gradually clock around the compass and freshen Thursday through Friday morning. A period of fresh to strong breezes is possible Friday night into Saturday morning before briefly slackening. A reinforcing front on Sunday will bring back the potential for a prolonged period of fresh to strong breezes. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 854 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Generally dry skies and light winds near 5 to 10 kts will continue through this TAF period with VRF conditions prevailing. Scattered clouds may develop overnight, but shouldn`t impact ceiling heights. Rain chances remain very low, under 10 percent. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285202 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:21 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 815 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 814 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 - There is a low chance of fog tomorrow morning across portions of southwest Georgia and the Florida Big Bend from the Flint River Valley eastward and southeastward to Cross City. - Dry weather will persist through Wednesday morning with seasonably cool overnight lows and mild afternoon highs. A blast of cold air is expected for the end of the work week, into the weekend, with a low to medium chance of frost over the weekend away from the coast. && .UPDATE... Issued at 814 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 No updates needed this evening as the forecast is on track. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (This Evening through Monday) Issued at 358 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Generally benign weather conditions are expected throughout the forecast period. Light westerly winds through Wednesday give way to breezier conditions Thursday and Friday as a trough digs south across eastern CONUS pushing through a dry cold front. Before that happens, a quick moving shortwave currently in the southern Plains looks to move across the northern Gulf States through tomorrow night. As it does so it`ll eject PV ahead of it, potentially producing just enough PVA to help force a couple passing showers across the region late tomorrow morning and into the afternoon. Thursday through Friday, winds around 850mb will be around 25-35 kts and given that this frontal feature is expected to have very little moisture return, it`s expected that both afternoons will be mostly sunny. This will allow effective mixing of this high momentum air down to the surface with northwesterly gusts around 30 kts possible. Otherwise, behind the cold front, several reinforcing shortwaves round the base of the trough, sending back to back shots of cold, dry, northerly air to the deep south this weekend. Luckily, winds will begin decreasing Saturday into Sunday, depending on timing this could limit how cold feel-like temperatures get. Currently, models are hinting at feel-like temps around freezing during the overnight period for Friday night and Saturday Night. We`ll be monitoring trends throughout the week to determine how impactful this cold shot will be, stay tuned for updates. As mentioned, the temperature forecast essentially takes a dive throughout the week. Generally speaking, expect daytime high temps through Thursday, ahead of the cold front, to be in the 70s. Following frontal passage these daytime highs dip into the upper 50s across our northernmost counties and into the 60s elsewhere, with warmer temperatures as one heads closer to the Gulf Coast. Likewise, overnight low temps actually increase over the next few mornings ahead of the cold front. They`ll be rising into the mid to upper 50s by Thursday morning. Friday morning they`ll dip into the low to mid 40s and bottom out by Sunday morning into the mid and upper 30s with just the coastal strip remaining in the low to mid 40s. Patchy fog may continue to be an issue in some areas over the next couple mornings until the cold front moves through. Temperatures begin to rebound as we head into the next work week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 358 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Light to moderate offshore winds with dry weather expected to last through Wednesday morning, show passing showers are possible Wednesday afternoon. On Thursday and Friday, northwest winds are expected to increase to advisory-level as a cold front pushes through the area with gusts near 30 knots expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 358 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 A dry airmass will continue through the middle of the week. Winds will remain light through tomorrow, then a cold front will blow through on Thursday with an increase in winds for Thursday and Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 358 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 There are currently no flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 79 55 76 58 / 0 0 10 0 Panama City 76 58 74 63 / 10 0 10 0 Dothan 76 52 73 55 / 0 0 30 0 Albany 76 50 74 55 / 0 0 20 0 Valdosta 78 52 76 55 / 0 0 20 0 Cross City 81 57 79 60 / 0 10 10 0 Apalachicola 75 59 75 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285201 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 720 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Near-normal temperatures through Thursday, turning colder Friday and over the weekend. - Little in the way of rain expected through the period. && .UPDATE... Issued at 719 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 A more southerly flow pattern today allowed for cloudier skies across the area, with a few showers managing to develop which are currently pushing east through the interior. As these showers clear out of the area through the next few hours, mainly rain free and quiet weather conditions are expected to hold overnight and into Wednesday morning. Minor adjustments were made to the rain chances for the next couple of hours to keep up with radar trends. Otherwise, the forecast looks on track with a few more showers being possible Wednesday afternoon, mainly over southwest Florida. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 719 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours, although some occasional MVFR ceilings cannot be completely ruled out Wednesday morning into the early afternoon. A few showers will develop Wednesday afternoon, mainly around southwest Florida, but rain chances at area terminals will all be less than 20 percent. && .MARINE... Issued at 150 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Light winds will remain over the area through Wednesday. By Thursday we will see a quick moving cold front push through behind it. After frontal passage we will see the winds increase through the afternoon and evening. Winds will peak around 15 to 20 knots Thursday night out of the northwest and stay elevated through Friday. By the weekend we will see winds shifting more north then northwest and they will drop slight but still remain around 15 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 150 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 We will see mostly dry conditions through the weekend with no fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 69 81 67 80 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 72 85 70 81 / 10 10 20 20 GIF 69 84 63 81 / 20 10 0 0 SRQ 70 81 69 80 / 10 10 10 10 BKV 64 81 63 80 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 70 79 69 78 / 0 0 10 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1285200 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:12 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 705 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New AVIATION, UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches through Wednesday. - Strong Cold Frontal Passage Expected on Thursday Night. Small Craft Advisory Conditions Likely from Thursday Afternoon through at Least Saturday Morning. - Frost Possible Across Inland Southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley Early on Sunday Morning. && .UPDATE... Forecast on track at this time, but main changes were to increase the rain chances a bit toward early morning and into first part of Wednesday morning. Latest radar loop this evening shows isolated to scattered showers over central FL as shown by the HRRR guidance too. Overall, guidance has boosted the POPs for late tonight over parts of northeast FL generally south of a line from Gainesville to St Augustine as a mid to upper level disturbance approaches, with primarily a stratiform type-precip pattern but an isolated shower is possible over parts of Marion and Flagler counties Wednesday morning. Any rainfall amount look very low. For now, trended toward showing some sprinkles for these areas overnight but will monitor radar for further updates to rain chances. No other significant changes in the forecast. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Main Highlights: - Increasing Cloud Cover Should Prevent Fog Formation Tonight Afternoon surface analysis depicts high pressure (1022 millibars) situated along the southeastern seaboard. Aloft...zonal flow prevails across the Deep South, downstream of a cutoff trough spinning over northern and western Texas. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a seasonably dry air mass remains in place across most of our area, with PWATs generally ranging from 0.5 to 1 inch, while values have recently climbed just above 1 inch across portions of north central FL. Deepening southwesterly flow downstream of the aforementioned upper trough over Texas was transporting high altitude cloud cover across our area this afternoon. A lingering dry air mass and filtered sunshine has boosted temperatures to the mid and upper 70s at 18Z, with a few locations in north central FL touching 80 degrees. Dewpoints ranged from the lower 40s across portions of southeast GA to the lower 60s for portions of north central and coastal northeast FL. High altitude cloudiness will increase through late this afternoon as the cutoff trough over northern and western TX dislodges and begins progressing eastward across as a shortwave trough. Otherwise, filtered sunshine and a dry air mass will allow temperatures to climb to the 75-80 degree range this afternoon, except lower 80s across north central FL. These values are about 5 degrees above mid- November climatology. Increasing mid and high altitude cloudiness overnight downstream of the approaching shortwave trough should prevent fog formation across our area, with light winds allowing lows to fall to the 50-55 degree range for most of southeast GA and inland portions of northeast FL, ranging to the low and mid 60s for portions of north central and coastal northeast FL. These values are near to slightly above mid- November climatology. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights (Wednesday & Thursday): - Breezy Westerly Winds Thursday. A pattern shift will begin through the latter half of the week as a large upper trough carves out across the eastern CONUS. Light winds and dry low levels will persist through Wednesday as the "lead" shortwave drifts overhead during the afternoon hours. Enough lift and mid level moisture will support light stratiform showers and sprinkles with the fast moving shortwave for locations along and north of I-10. Behind that feature, a weak cold front while pass as a formidable surface low shifts toward the Mid Atlantic and begins to quickly deepen through Thursday. The response to the intensifying low to the north will be a tightening local gradient and breezy offshore (westerly) winds with gusts around 15-25 mph. A second dry cold front passage Thursday night will push in drier and cooler air as flow turns northwesterly to end the work week. Breezy conditions and a fairly dry boundary layer will keep fog potential very low each night. Despite the weak cold front passage Wednesday night, temperatures will be temperate each day with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Lows tumble from the mid/upper 50s Wednesday night to the mid 40s and low 50s Thursday night behind the front. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Friday through Monday Main Highlights This Period: - Much cooler & drier Friday through Sunday - Inland Frost Potential Southeast GA/Suwannee Valley Sunday Morning Much cooler and breezy conditions will develop Friday and persist through the weekend. A stagnant upper trough will remain situated across the eastern US with embedded shortwaves rotating around it, sending reinforcing cold air into the area. As the cold Canadian surface ridge leaks into the region Saturday night, temperatures will chill to their lowest with lows into the mid 30s across portions of SE GA and the Suwannee Valley. Calming winds with the near-freezing temperatures will lend the potential for patchy to areas of frost development Saturday night. High pressure will then build to the north and then northeast Sunday through early next week resulting in gradual warming and breezy northeasterly winds. Rain chances will begin to increase next week as the southern stream begins to reengage allowing shortwaves to track across the Gulf and Florida. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... VFR cigs expected through Wednesday with moderate to high confidence cigs down to as low as 8000-12000 ft through Wednesday. From 06z to 14z Wednesday, a chance of MVFR cigs at about 20-30 percent for all the northeast FL TAFs, but for now showing scattered decks around 3000-4000 ft. A few sprinkles possible around GNV and SGJ late tonight, but no cig or vsby restrictions are anticipated at this time. Additional isolated showers possible across southeast GA late Wednesday, but unlikely to cause flight issues at JAX or SSI terminals through late in the TAF period. Likely to be too much cloud cover to favor fog formation overnight, but surface wind will be near calm. Westerly surface winds will develop after sunrise, with sustained speeds increasing to around 5-8 knots towards 14Z Wednesday. && .MARINE... High pressure will shift offshore tonight and an upper level disturbance crosses the waters on Wednesday, bringing a low chance of showers. Westerly winds increase Thursday ahead of a cold front. This strong cold front will cross the waters Thursday night, bringing strong northwest winds and building seas through Saturday morning. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to develop by late Thursday afternoon and evening in association with the strong front, with advisory conditions lasting through at least Saturday morning over the local waters. Winds and seas will briefly subside on Saturday as surface high pressure builds into the region, before breezy northeast winds develop Sunday as another high builds from the north. Rip Currents: A lingering long period east-northeasterly ocean swell will keep a moderate risk in place at all area beaches through Wednesday. Strengthening offshore winds from Thursday through Saturday should yield a low risk. Breezy northeasterly winds developing by Sunday will likely create a moderate risk. && .FIRE WEATHER... - High Daytime Dispersions Possible Thursday And Friday Dry conditions and light westerly winds persist through Wednesday, with poor to fair (30-40 units) daytime dispersions. Near critical humidity, down to the upper 20s to 30s, will develop again this afternoon and be followed by a slight upward trend Wednesday. There is a chance for very light rain and sprinkles Wednesday afternoon with a passing disturbance but only a few hundredths of rain are expected. A strong cold front will arrive Thursday night bringing breezy westerly winds ahead of it and gusty northwesterly winds behind it. The cold air will plunge into the area Friday and through the weekend and may lead to areas of frost for the Suwannee Valley and inland Southeast GA Saturday night/Sunday morning. Next chance for meaningful rain isn`t expected until next week. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Limited fog development through Wednesday with near-zero chance Thursday through Sunday. Patchy Frost possible this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 50 77 56 77 / 0 20 0 0 SSI 56 78 58 78 / 0 20 20 0 JAX 54 79 56 79 / 10 20 20 0 SGJ 62 79 58 77 / 10 10 10 0 GNV 59 79 57 78 / 10 10 0 0 OCF 63 80 59 79 / 10 10 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285199 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:07 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 653 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence in appreciable rainfall late this week continues to decrease. Meanwhile, confidence in the first widespread sub- freezing nights of the season this weekend continues to increase. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry and seasonably mild through mid-week. 2) A strong cold front brings chances for showers Thursday-Friday, but any potential for appreciable rain is low. Much cooler temperatures follow behind the front with below freezing temperatures likely inland. && .DISCUSSION... As of 1220 PM EST Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonably mild through mid-week. Temperatures as of 12 PM have warmed into the mid-upper 60s for most of the area. Afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s are expected under clear skies with a light SW wind. Not as cold tonight with lows in the low-mid 40s for most. Another seasonably mild day is on the way for Wednesday with sky cover and temperatures very similar to today. However, unlike today, clouds will likely gradually increase in coverage late in the day as low pressure begins to take shape well NW of the region. KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings chances for showers Thursday-Friday, but any potential for appreciable rain is low. Much cooler temperatures follow behind the front with below freezing temperatures likely inland. A big change remains on the horizon as we approach late week. A shortwave trough is forecast to dive southward out of the north- central CONUS Wednesday, with a larger longwave trough and embedded upper low setting up shop over most of the eastern CONUS by Thursday and Friday. While isolated to scattered showers are possible Thursday and Friday, confidence is decreasing. PoPs have lowered to 25-40% along and north of I-64 and less than 25% south of I-64 on Thursday and 15-20% only across the Eastern Shore on Friday. The 12z GEFS only has a 20-40% chance for greater than 0.1" of rain with negligible probs for greater than 0.5" of rain. Meanwhile, the 6z EPS is similar with generally a 30-50% chance for greater than 0.1" of rain and negligible probs for greater than 0.5". As such, the main focus will be the much cooler temperatures that overspread the area behind the associated frontal passage as the anomalously strong trough moves into the region. Thursday looks to be the last mild day for a while with pre-frontal highs in the mid-upper 60s for most and around 70F SE. A series of cold fronts then crosses the local area Thursday evening and overnight, bringing much cooler temps by Friday. At this time, forecast highs Friday are only in the 50s. The large upper trough remains parked over most of the eastern CONUS Saturday, and this still looks like the coolest day of the period. Highs Sat are only expected to reach the lower 50s for most of the area with upper 40s possible across the far northern portions of the area (especially the lower MD Eastern Shore). These cool temps continue into early next week. Overnight lows will also be much cooler with lows in the upper 20s to around freezing for most locations away from the coast Friday, Saturday, and Sunday nights. Subfreezing temperatures may continue (for lows) Monday and Tuesday nights as well. As such, the growing season looks to be ending shortly for most areas. Will likely need a Freeze Watch as we get closer to the weekend. Gusty NW winds could make these temps feel even chillier. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 650 PM EST Tuesday... VFR conditions prevail through the 00z TAF period with mostly clear skies. Light and variable winds are expected tonight, with SE winds of ~5 kt on Wed. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue through at least Thursday morning. A cold front approaches from the west Thursday, with showers possible by Thursday, potentially lingering into Friday. Some short- lived sub-VFR conditions are possible with the frontal passage, along with some gusty NW winds and markedly cooler conditions behind the front for Friday and the weekend. && .MARINE... As of 155 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely late Thursday into Saturday as northwest winds increase behind a strong cold front. - Occasional gale-force gusts are possible Saturday, especially over the offshore coastal waters, but confidence in frequent gale conditions remains low. Generally benign marine conditions are expected through tomorrow as a weak front crosses the waters tonight. S-SW winds are averaging 10 to 15 knots this afternoon, and will become northerly in the wake of the front tonight. High pressure briefly returns for tomorrow, leading to light easterly flow (~5 to 10 knots) over the waters. Seas will average 2 to 3 feet, and waves in the Chesapeake Bay 1 to 2 feet. A stronger cold front crosses the waters late Thursday into Friday, with northwest winds increasing in its wake as CAA and a tightening pressure gradient develop across the region. Winds increase to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots Friday into Saturday, with the strongest winds likely expected Saturday morning into the afternoon. Some gusts to 35 knots are possible in the 20-60 nm coastal waters. The latest GFS/ECMWF generally show 925 mb winds peaking around ~25 to 30 knots Saturday morning, supporting at least widespread SCA conditions. In regards to probabilities for Gale force gusts, the 12z EPS remains the highest with 40-60% chances for gusts in excess of 34 knots, while the local wind probs, and especially the GEFS, are lower. The highest probabilities are focused across the 20- 60 nm coastal waters. Winds remain elevated into Saturday night, but gradually begin to diminish Sunday into early next week as high pressure returns. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285198 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 641 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation section has been updated to reflect the 00z aviation forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will continue through Thursday. - 2) Frost/freeze conditions are possible Friday night through Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will continue through Thursday. Dry high pressure will prevail across the area Wednesday before being forced eastward as a cold front approaches the area Wednesday night and Thursday. Currently, model consensus on the timing of the front suggests that it will begin pushing through the forecast area Thursday afternoon and should shift offshore Thursday evening. The result will be well above normal temperatures each day before the coolest air of the season so far filters in for the late week and the weekend. Wednesday highs are forecast to reach the upper 70s, with similar values for Thursday. Lows will trend upward as well, with upper 40s and low 50s Wednesday morning and mid to upper 50s Thursday morning. Wednesday afternoon, a mid-level southern stream shortwave will move quickly across the Deep South and towards the forecast area in the afternoon. Hi-res models suggest this could be enough forcing to produce an area of light showers that could move into our southeast GA zones. However, a closer perusal of soundings reveals mostly mid- level moisture with substantial dry air below about 600 mb. Therefore, if this area of showers comes to fruition essentially no measurable rainfall is expected. Also of note, as the front moves in on Thursday we should see breezy conditions due to the combination of tightening pressure gradient, deep diurnal mixing, and the onset of cold-air advection. Frequent gusts into the 25-30 mph range can be expected. KEY MESSAGE 2: Frost/freeze conditions are possible Friday night through Sunday night. Friday: Notably cooler temperatures return heading into the weekend in the wake of a departing cold front. After a brisk start in the 40s to 50s, should see highs warm into the low to mid 60s across the region. West-northwestly winds will also be fairly breezy during this time, with gusts between 20 to 25 mph - so you may still want a grab a jacket before heading out. Cold air advection continues to surge throughout the overnight period, which may prompt our first frost formation of the season. That being said, wind speeds are still expected to remain high enough to keep the overall concern on the lower end for now. Our best chances for seeing frost look to occur Sunday morning, thanks to clear skies, light winds, and efficient radiational cooling. Otherwise, could see one more round of frost/freeze return Monday morning as cold temperatures linger. Nov 10 13z NBM 10km neighborhood probabilities for emergency management warming shelter planning: Friday Night/Saturday Morning: Inland Areas Coastal Corridor Temps 35 degrees or colder: 20-50% <5% Temps 32 degrees or colder: 5-10% <5% Temps 30 degrees or colder: <5% <5% Saturday Night/Sunday Morning: Inland Areas Coastal Corridor Temps 35 degrees or colder: 60-80% 10-30% Temps 32 degrees or colder: 20-40% 5% Temps 30 degrees or colder: 10-30% <5% Sunday Night/Monday Morning: Inland Areas Coastal Corridor Temps 35 degrees or colder: 20-50% 5-10% Temps 32 degrees or colder: 10-20% <5% Temps 30 degrees or colder: 5-10% <5% Frost Advisories, Freeze Watches and Freeze Warnings may eventually be needed, especially for areas roughly inland of US-17 in the Lowcountry and I-95 in Southeast Georgia. Detailed information on first freeze dates for the area can be found online at: https://www.weather.gov/media/chs/climate/AverageFirstLastFreezeDates.pdf && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 00z Wednesday. Winds will be light and variable overnight becoming southwesterly during the afternoon. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail, with westerly winds gusting up to 25 kts of ahead of an advancing cold front Thursday. && .MARINE... Through tonight: Modest southwest to west-southwest flow will prevail across the local waters with speeds no more than 10-15 knots. Seas will remain in the 2-3 ft range. Wednesday Onward: Surface high pressure will continue across the Southeast U.S. through Wednesday, bringing a light to perhaps gentle breeze. Seas will be 2-3 ft within 20 nm and 3-4 ft for the 20-60 nm waters. Winds increase out of the southwest Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front, becoming gusty to near 30 knots. Likewise, wind-driven seas will build. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for our waters starting Thursday afternoon. Winds shift to become out of the west-northwest overnight into Friday, with a brief period of weakening winds during the morning/afternoon before wind speeds pick up again. Winds decrease below Small Craft Thresholds Saturday morning/afternoon, with the northwesterly winds ushering out the 6 feet waves around the same time. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285197 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:36 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 626 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for 00Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above normal temperatures will continue with very minimal rain chances ahead of next cold front on Thursday. 2) A big cool down expected Friday into the weekend with frost/freeze conditions possible. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures will continue with very minimal rain chances ahead of next cold front on Thursday. Warm temps will continue in southwest to west flow ahead of next system through Thurs. A digging mid to upper trough will aid in an increase in some mainly passing mid to high clouds through midweek and will support some gusty winds and a very minimal chance of light showers on Thursday as it pushes a cold front through. Looks like the only chance of pcp on Thurs will be closer to daybreak or early morning. By noon, much drier air will be moving in from west to east across the forecast area. KEY MESSAGE 2...A big cool down expected Friday into the weekend with frost/freeze conditions possible. After a significant mid-upper trough pushes a cold front through on Thursday, breezy west to northwest winds will usher in considerably cooler and drier air for the weekend. Confidence is increasing for multiple nights featuring widespread 30s for overnight lows beginning Fri night and the potential for a widespread freeze is also increasing for Saturday night. This will also include several days of below normal temps near 60 or below. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High confidence in prevailing VFR conditions through the 00Z TAF period. There is however a very low risk for vsby reductions overnight from shallow fog. Winds will be very low to nonexistent overnight before picking up a bit from the S/SW Wed after 15Z. Extended outlook... VFR through at least Wednesday night. MVFR cigs may develop Thursday morning ahead of a strong cold front but confidence remains low. VFR to follow later Thursday into the weekend. && .MARINE... Mostly benign marine conditions will continue into late Wednesday with southwest to west winds mostly 10 kts or less. SW to W winds should increase starting Wednesday night ahead of a cold front with elevated/gusty west to northwest winds behind the front starting late Thursday. Best chc of minimal and brief Small Craft Advisory conditions would be Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Winds will remain mainly 10 to 20 kts Fri through Sat night as they veer slowly from NW to N. Seas in the 1-2 ft range in the nearshore waters and 2-3 ft in the 20-60 nmi waters will continue through Wednesday before increasing Wednesday night. Seas peak on Thursday with wave heights in the 2-5 ft range in the coastal waters and 5-7 ft range in the 20-60 nmi waters before subsiding somewhat on Friday. An easterly swell will be a dominant contributor to the wave spectrum through Wednesday with a period between 9 and 11 seconds before wind waves become the primary contributor Wednesday night into the weekend. Seas will drop as winds diminish Saturday through Sunday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285196 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:36 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 522 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 522 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 - A strong cold front pushes through the area on Thursday, bringing much cooler temperatures. Marine winds will strengthen behind the front along with building seas. - A light freeze is possible well inland late Friday night and Saturday night, roughly along and north of Highway 84. && .UPDATE... Issued at 522 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 The forecast remains on track and no updates are needed. SS/97 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 A weak shortwave will move across the area on Wednesday bringing a few light showers to parts of the area. However, the lack of significant moisture return and weak forcing will keep rainfall totals very light. However, the main story will be late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, as a strong cold front moves through the area. The coldest temps of the season will move into the area with lows Thursday night in the mid/upper 30s inland to mid and upper 40s near the coast. Highs on Friday only reach the low to mid 60s. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 50s and low 60s. The coldest nights will be Friday and Saturday night as high pressure settles over the region with below freezing temps likely north of Highway 84. Temps begin to moderate Sunday as another shortwave approaches the area with scattered showers possible again across the area on Monday. /13 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 522 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 VFR conditions continue through tonight and into tomorrow morning. Light rain chances begin Wednesday morning into the afternoon which could bring ceilings and visibilities down to MVFR, especially in the more intense showers. Otherwise, winds are light and variable overnight and become generally westerly at 5-10 knots by morning. SS/97 && .MARINE... Issued at 1255 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 High pressure over the area will maintain light winds and calm waves/seas through Wednesday. Winds increase out of the west late Wednesday into early Thursday ahead of an approaching strong cold front, expected to pass the area Thursday morning. This will lead to an increase in offshore moderate to strong flow Thursday and Friday. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 54 75 58 75 / 10 30 0 0 Pensacola 58 74 61 75 / 0 20 0 0 Destin 59 73 63 75 / 0 20 0 0 Evergreen 49 72 53 71 / 10 20 0 0 Waynesboro 49 77 53 72 / 0 10 0 0 Camden 47 72 54 69 / 0 10 0 0 Crestview 49 73 54 74 / 0 30 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285195 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 628 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and seasonable weather continues for tonight and Wednesday. - A chilly rain likely late Thu into Sat, with some snow possible in the higher elevations of MA/CT && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonable weather continues for tonight and Wednesday. Dry subsident W to NW flow continues into Wednesday as southern New England remains under a flattened mid-level ridge. A moisture- starved shortwave drops southward overnight. This will mainly bring a period of breezy conditions overnight, mainly along the coast and interior higher elevations overnight. This will also bring in a slightly cooler airmass aloft by Wednesday. At most, temperatures may be a degree or two cooler than Tuesday. Highs will likely rise into the low to mid 50s with the exception of the CT Valley with upper 50s in spots. Mid/upper level moisture will support some cloud cover mixed in with sunshine. KEY MESSAGE 2...A chilly rain likely late Thu into Sat, with some snow possible in the higher elevations of MA/CT Good model (AI and traditional models) agreement on a coastal low or series of lows tracking somewhere along or south of New England in the Thu-Sat timeframe. Although, there is considerable uncertainty in the guidance on multi waves vs one consolidate low, along with the magnitude/intensity of each wave. Therefore, large differences on QPF, axis of heaviest QPF, along with location/track of dry slot. As for ptype, given the lack of cold air (warm blyr), most of the region will likely experience a chilly rain, especially the coastal plain and big population centers of Boston, Worcester, Providence and Hartford. For snow in the coastal plain to occur with this setup, a stronger system would be required, with strong height falls cooling the column from top down to erode warm boundary layer. Also, heavy precip would be required to cool the column via diabatic cooling from melting, and models show a very large spread in axis of heaviest QPF. Thus, a low confidence forecast on exact storm details. As for timing of precip, most 12z guidance, including the 12z REFS, Thu may begin dry, but by days end, most guidance has rain falling over all of MA/CT/RI. A look at the ensembles, both AI and traditional models, only one or two members from both the EC and GFS ensembles have substantial snowfall across MA/CT/RI. Thus, non-zero, but very low probability of this happening. Again, it would require a stronger system with significant height falls and heavy precip over SNE. Hence, a chilly rain for most of MA/RI/CT, with some snow possible across the higher elevations of MA/CT. As for snow probs from the ensembles, the 12z GEFS ensembles only have 10-20% probability for 3+ inches across Northern Worcester and the Berkshires. The CMC ensembles are very similar and the 12z ECENS have up to 50-60% of 3+ inches across the Berks, with 30-40% over Northern Worcester county. Ensembles suggest low slowly exits by Sunday, with some height rises over SNE. Thus, some improvement Sunday with drier weather and not as chilly as Sat, although remaining blustery Sunday. Additional improvement comes early next week with further height rises promoting seasonable temps (highs low 50s) and dry weather. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00z TAF Update... Tonight...High confidence. Mainly VFR conditions for the rest of today and tonight. W to WNW winds at 8-12 kts. A brief period of sporadic gusts near 18 kts is possible tonight after midnight around BOS and ORH. Otherwise, Cape/Islands may see gusts linger into the overnight period. Wednesday...High confidence. VFR conditions. SCT to BKN mid to high level clouds. Winds WNW at 8-10 kts. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Sunday/... Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. RA likely. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. RA. Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. RA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA, chance SN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance RA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Wednesday night...High confidence. Surface high pressure across the coastal waters tonight and Wednesday. Elevated winds continue this evening and early tonight as a dry front moves through with gusts 20-28 kts. Opted to keep the SCAs going for the outer southern waters and eastern waters since it is marginal. Seas 3-6 ft. Winds decrease early Wednesday morning, although seas may remain near 5 ft across portions of the southern outer waters through the afternoon Wednesday. SCAs will continue tonight through 12Z, but it is possible some of the southern zones may need to be extended due to the elevated seas. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Sunday/... Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain. Friday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Rain. Friday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain likely. Saturday: Strong winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Rain likely. Saturday Night: Strong winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Chance of rain. Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ250- 254>256. && $$ |
| #1285194 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 531 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 524 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 - The chance for light rain continues tonight. - Areas of fog possible early Wednesday morning. - Frontal passage possible Thursday or Friday with rain chances returning by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 119 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 As of this afternoon, the heaviest rainfall has moved offshore, while lingering light showers/rain continues across portions of S TX. Models indicate additional light showers through the evening hours along with a few thunderstorms across the coastal waters. Models are in fair agreement with the mid level trough and surface trough of low pressure tracking east overnight, and ending rain chances from west to east through Wednesday morning. In its wake, drier mid level air is progged to filter across S TX while low level moisture will remain in place. Combined with light winds, may allow for marginally efficient radiational fog to develop across inland portions of S TX where there are breaks in the clouds. A mid level ridge of high pressure is forecast to build across S TX through the remainder of the work week, maintaining very low to nil rain chances. A dry cold front is expected to reach S TX by Thursday and stall. Lots of uncertainty as to where the front stalls, but it will be the focus for rain over the weekend as an upper level trough approaches from the west. Not much cold air advection expected with this next cold front, but may be most noticeable Thursday and Friday nights with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. Overall, expecting temps to be near to slightly above normal through the period. Minor coastal flooding is not expected tonight, but could be close as tides will remain elevated through the next high tide this afternoon/evening. Will continue to monitor trends for any tides that are higher than currently expected. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 524 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Soggy conditions continue across South Texas, with a mix of LIFR/IFR ceilings and IFR/MVFR visibilities. Light northerly winds and saturated conditions will pose another LIFR/IFR threat in both ceilings and visibilities late tonight (08-14Z) as well as drizzle, with greatest impacts over the fog prone areas of VCT/ALI. Rain is expected to drift eastward, ending by 12Z for majority of the area with exception to VCT. Ceilings should improve to MVFR by noon Wednesday, followed by VFR at the end or just beyond the forecast Wednesday evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 119 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected through this evening, then ending from west to east overnight into Wednesday morning. Winds are expected to become light and variable as a surface low lifts northeast along the Texas coast. A cold front is forecast to move into South Texas Thursday or Friday and possibly stall across the area. If it moves through the area, a moderate to fresh northerly breeze may develop in its wake, then decreases through Friday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 119 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Recent rainfall and additional rain chances through this evening will continue to keep the fire risk low through the next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 63 76 62 78 / 60 10 0 0 Victoria 60 76 59 77 / 70 10 0 0 Laredo 62 75 63 78 / 10 10 0 0 Alice 59 75 60 77 / 60 10 0 0 Rockport 63 77 63 79 / 60 20 0 0 Cotulla 59 74 59 76 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 60 76 60 79 / 40 10 0 0 Navy Corpus 67 76 67 76 / 60 10 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285192 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:21 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 505 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon, mainly along and south of I-10. - Additional round of showers and storms is expected this evening through early Wednesday. A few storms could become strong to severe with hail and heavy downpours as the main risk. - Cold front is expected Wednesday night followed by drier cooler weather for the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 125 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Periods of showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and move east-northeastward across portions of SE Texas early this afternoon. Latest satellite imagery and surface observations show the upper lvl trough moving over TX/south Plains, while at the surface, a coastal trough moves northeastward along the Middle TX coast. With increasing WAA, and bulk shear of 40 to 55 knots, isolated hail (up to 1") will be possible with any strong cells through late this afternoon and evening. The best potential for stronger showers and storms will remain roughly along and south of I-10, which is where the best moisture availability persists. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity this evening and overnight as the trough lifts northward along the Upper TX coast. Therefore, we will continue to monitor areas from Conroe coastward for additional convection redevelopment this evening and overnight. With decent dynamics aloft, bulk shear and cool mid-level temperatures; a risk of isolated hail will remain possible with the strongest storms. SPC highlights this threat in their Day 1 outlook for severe weather with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5). Showers and storms should gradually taper off after sunrise Wednesday as the main forcing and sfc convergence move out of the region. Skies will slowly clear out from the northwest, though cloud cover may persist over the coastal zones. Highs will generally be in the 70s with some locations reaching the low 80s across our far northern counties. A low over the northeastern CONUS will drag a cool dry front that will enter the region late Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing drier northerly air. This surge of cooler air will be felt more through the night with overnight lows dropping into the mid 40s to upper 50s by Friday morning and Saturday morning. Ridging aloft breaks down later this weekend as a mid to upper low/trough moves across the Plains. This will result in the return of rain and storm chances Sunday into early next week. JM && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 500 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Periods of SHRA are likely across much of the region this evening into tonight, w/ isolated to widely scattered TSRA expected south of I-10. We cannot rule out TSRA farther north. But for now, we are limiting the mention of thunderstorms to TAFs south of I-10. Prevailing vis/cigs are expected to be VFR. However, occasional reduced vis/cigs during times of SHRA/TSRA will be possible throughout the night. Wednesday appears to be a quieter weather day, with lingering clouds and VFR cigs/vis. && .MARINE... Issued at 125 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon, and will persist through the evening and overnight hours. This is in response of an approaching coastal trough that will continue to lift northward along the Middle and Upper TX coast through early Wednesday. The environment will continue to be conducive for strong thunderstorms capable of producing hail, heavy downpours and lightning. The best potential for strong storms will be later this evening through early Wednesday morning. A cool front will move through the bays and coastal waters Wednesday night into Thursday morning, resulting in moderate offshore winds and seas up to 4 ft (well offshore). Light onshore winds resume by early Friday. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 57 79 56 77 / 20 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 61 78 61 79 / 60 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 67 74 65 76 / 80 50 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285193 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:21 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 507 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 501 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 - Rain is expected to overall decrease this evening into tomorrow but there is a low (20-30%) chance of some spotty showers. - Temperatures will be cool today and tomorrow due to low clouds and northwesterly winds. - Conditions should dry out for the middle and end of this week, but a weak cold front will increase rain chances (20-30%) for this upcoming Saturday and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1135 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Conditions should continue to dry out through the afternoon into this evening as the heaviest convection moves offshore and high pressure from Northern Mexico moves toward the area, stabilizing the atmosphere. Due to lingering surface coastal troughing (which is expected to dissipate over the next couple of days), there could still be a shower or two tonight into tomorrow, especially near the coast. Chances remain low through, near 20 to 30%. By Thursday, Deep South Texas should be rain-free and remain so until Saturday. A weak cold front is expected this weekend, which will bring low (20 to 30%) rain chances back to all of Deep South Texas for Saturday. These will continue overnight into Sunday. Lingering low rain chances will continue along the immediate coast for early next week as well. Temperatures are expected to be unseasonably cool this afternoon and tomorrow. NBM guidance has trended warmer than actual observed temperatures over the region, with northwesterly flow and lingering cloud cover keeping observed temperatures cooler. Highs are expected to be in the upper 60s/lower 70s this afternoon. Depending on how quickly cloud cover dissipates and the strength of the northwesterly flow, highs could reach the upper 70s/low 80s tomorrow. However, if cloud cover lingers and northwesterly flow remains strong over Deep South Texas then tomorrow`s highs could only reach the lower 70s instead. Temperatures are then expected to gradually warm to seasonal levels in the low 80s and remain in the low 80s/upper 70s through early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 501 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Ceilings currently range from 1,200 ft (MVFR) at KMFE to 600 ft (IFR) at KBRO and KHRL, with a light NNW breeze and P6SM visibility at all terminals. Areas of mist may develop overnight as winds calm further, which could briefly reduce visibility, but have left out of the TAFs for now due to low confidence. IFR ceilings are expected to continue into tomorrow morning, perhaps lowering to LIFR near sunrise, but otherwise lift to MVFR by mid- to-late morning or early afternoon tomorrow as light to gentle NW winds resume. && .MARINE... Issued at 1135 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Overall favorable conditions are expected the rest of the week with low to moderate winds and seas. Conditions should deteriorate this weekend as another cold front approaches the area, increasing both the winds and the wave heights. Small Craft Exercise Caution and/or Small Craft Advisories may be needed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 63 79 67 79 / 10 10 10 10 HARLINGEN 63 77 64 78 / 20 10 10 0 MCALLEN 63 79 66 82 / 20 10 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 62 78 63 82 / 10 10 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 63 75 70 75 / 30 20 20 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 63 77 65 77 / 20 20 20 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285190 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 515 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 513 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 - Dry air and ongoing drought conditions will elevate fire spread concerns through this afternoon, and again at the end of the week behind a strong cold front. Residents in areas under burn bans should not conduct outdoor burning of any kind. Residents in areas without official burn bans should take extra precautions if burning outdoors. - A strong cold front will move through the area late this week bringing potential for frost and the first freeze of the season for some areas mainly Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Friday) Issued at 128 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Overall, a weak surface flow across the region with mostly clear skies this afternoon. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s as the upper levels provide us with a southwest flow, which will become slightly more active going into tonight and Wednesday. A positively tilted H5 trough currently resides over TX and guidance is trying to paint some lower end QPF over portions of the region Wednesday morning. A shower or two cannot be ruled out, but overall QPF is light...on average below 0.1" of rain. Of course this will not help the ongoing drought much, but it should help reduce fire weather at least for Wednesday with a bit more low level moisture in place. Going into Thursday the synoptic pattern transitions with a broad scale trough setting up over the eastern US and a rather strong albeit a dry cold front through the region Thursday. This will increase the northerly flow with CAA develop over the region. WIth the uptick in winds expect a cold night Thursday night or Friday morning, but not as cold due to mixing. Friday looks very dry and cooler. Afternoon highs will only warm into the mid and upper 60s after starting off in the lower 40s. Behind the front with dry air moving back in, slightly higher winds and given antecedent conditions, expect fire weather potential to increase. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Monday) Issued at 128 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Over time, a large synoptic H3 upper trough will dig well into the deep south by Thu into Fri. The orientation of the west side of this trough will be from northern Manitoba province of Canada directly into Louisiana. This setup will cause cold frontal passages to just keep making each day of the extended cooler and cooler, but slowly. Temps will lower enough to not move outside the 60s Friday and Saturday. Low temps, especially on Saturday morning, could dip into the mid 30s, in the usual cool spots. Some patchy frost will certainly be possible. A new upper trough will enter from the west coast over the weekend. As it moves east, it will run into the high ridging over the gulf coast from the Atlantic. Global models handle this somewhat different. The similarities are in a system actually developing and moving out of TX by the end of the weekend. The differences is in where this system moves. The GFS would like to take this in two different sections, one to the the north and one into the gulf. The EURO wants to just keep this in the gulf. There is a very good signal well past the extended portion of this weekend of another stronger synoptic system developing. The addition of this large scale system moving in, will have an effect on this weekends system. Pattern resolution says the weekend system should develop but weaken over time as it moves east and feels the return flow from a much stronger system developing to the west. This is well out side our fcast timeframe, but it is important in the overall evolution of the weekend system. (TE) && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 513 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 A mid to high level deck of clouds will persist into tomorrow, but this will have no impact to aviation operations as prevailing VFR conditions remain in place through the entire forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 128 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Generally benign conditions will persist through the middle of the week as the area remains under the southern periphery of a surface high. Early Thursday a strong cold front will enter the coastal waters and surge into the Gulf. Behind it strong northwest winds will quickly develop with hazardous conditions developing over the marine zones Thursday and likely persisting through Friday night. Additionally, late this weekend expect easterly winds and seas to increase with most marine areas seeing Small Craft Advisories going into the new workweek. (Frye) && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285191 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 604 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Aviation Discussion && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above normal temperatures through Thursday. 2) Surface low passes to the north with its associated cold front tracking across ENC near the end of the week bringing breezy conditions to the area. Behind the cold front well below normal temperatures are forecast this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Another great fall day across ENC under clear skies, steady SW`rly winds, and temps in the 70s this afternoon as high pressure centered offshore remains the main weather feature across the area. As we get into tonight, zonal flow aloft pushes offshore as a weak upper level trough out ahead of a second and stronger upper level trough noted well to the west in the Upper Midwest pushes across the Southeast late tonight into Wednesday. Associated weak shortwave also pushes across the Carolinas tonight into Thurs morning as well. While there will be forcing in place, with ample dry air over the Mid-Atlantic, outside of high cirrus overspreading ENC tonight not expecting any precip with this shortwave. Winds look to decouple tonight as well, so if cirrus remains thin enough another threat for some non impactful ground fog will be possible especially along the coast where the lightest winds will be in place. Dry weather continues across ENC through Fri with slightly above avg temps as highs get into the 70s Wed/Thurs. KEY MESSAGE 2...Biggest change in the forecast for later this week and weekend is that both precip chances and winds have been trending down for this weekends system. Deep upper level trough in the Upper Mid-West will dive SE`wards into the Ohio River Valley Thurs into Fri with associated jet streak pushing off the east coast and strengthening during this timeframe. At the same time, strong shortwave also rounds the base of this trough Thurs into Fri as well promoting lift across the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, low pressure in the Upper Mid-West on Wed pushes SE`wards on Thurs while deepening and then transferring its energy to a second offshore low south of Long Island. This has been where the biggest change in the forecast has occured as ensemble, AI, and deterministic guidance has trended towards a more northern track for this surface low which as a result has trended precip chances down once again to sub-mentionable levels and has lowered the winds. So while the 30-40+ mph gust risk has lowered it will still be breezy across ENC Thurs and again on Fri with steady 10-20 mph W-NW winds and gusts up to 25-35 mph possible. While winds have trended downward, if the strongest gusts are realized over a longer amount of time Thurs/Fri we could still see some minor coastal flooding concerns across the soundside OBX mainly north of Oregon Inlet, though confidence is low that this is more than nuisance water level rises given the decreasing trend in wind guidance. Behind the system, unseasonably cool air will flood into the area as Canadian high pressure system builds into the Eastern Seaboard this weekend behind the departing low knocking highs down into the 50s for the weekend and into early next week and offer the first real opportunity for a freeze Sat night and Sun night as lows get into the 30s each night. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions continue across ENC early this evening with mostly clear skies and light SSW winds. Much like last night we will likely decouple, which could once again lead to some patchy ground fog Wed morning. Guidance continues to suggest increasing high clouds overnight, which could limit fog development. All sites could see brief period of fog, with better chances at EWN/OAJ/MRH. VFR conditions return Wed under light S`rly winds. Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are forecast through Wed night as high pressure and a much drier airmass remain in place, but shallow patchy fog will remain possible if winds go calm. Approaching storm system at the end of the week brings an increase in gusty winds though given the latest guidance with a lack of precip we could remain VFR into early next week for the most part. && .MARINE... High pressure has pushed offshore this afternoon bringing light SW`rly winds and 2-4 ft seas across our waters this afternoon. Winds will continue to remain light, generally around 5-15 kts out of the W to SW with seas lowering further closer to 10-3 ft on Wed. Outlook: Have made some changes to the extended period for our waters with the biggest change being that the gale force wind potential has gone down on Fri night into Sat across our coastal waters. Strong front approaches from the west on Thurs allowing for SW`rly winds to increase to 10-20 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts bringing our first threat for small craft conditions to our waters Thurs. Front tracks across the reason on Fri shifting winds to a NW`rly direction at 10-20 kts with gusts up around 25-35 kts. As noted before, wind forecast has trended down over the last day or so as strong low pressure looks to track well to the north of the area so while gale force wind potential has gone down, there still looks to be a solid chance at seeing widespread SCA conditions north of the Raleigh Bay area this weekend. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285189 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 613 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 612 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 - There is a low chance of fog tomorrow morning across portions of southwest Georgia and the Florida Big Bend from the Flint River Valley eastward and southeastward to Cross City. - Dry weather will persist through Wednesday morning with seasonably cool overnight lows and mild afternoon highs. A blast of cold air is expected for the end of the work week, into the weekend, with a low to medium chance of frost over the weekend away from the coast. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (This Evening through Monday) Issued at 358 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Generally benign weather conditions are expected throughout the forecast period. Light westerly winds through Wednesday give way to breezier conditions Thursday and Friday as a trough digs south across eastern CONUS pushing through a dry cold front. Before that happens, a quick moving shortwave currently in the southern Plains looks to move across the northern Gulf States through tomorrow night. As it does so it`ll eject PV ahead of it, potentially producing just enough PVA to help force a couple passing showers across the region late tomorrow morning and into the afternoon. Thursday through Friday, winds around 850mb will be around 25-35 kts and given that this frontal feature is expected to have very little moisture return, it`s expected that both afternoons will be mostly sunny. This will allow effective mixing of this high momentum air down to the surface with northwesterly gusts around 30 kts possible. Otherwise, behind the cold front, several reinforcing shortwaves round the base of the trough, sending back to back shots of cold, dry, northerly air to the deep south this weekend. Luckily, winds will begin decreasing Saturday into Sunday, depending on timing this could limit how cold feel-like temperatures get. Currently, models are hinting at feel-like temps around freezing during the overnight period for Friday night and Saturday Night. We`ll be monitoring trends throughout the week to determine how impactful this cold shot will be, stay tuned for updates. As mentioned, the temperature forecast essentially takes a dive throughout the week. Generally speaking, expect daytime high temps through Thursday, ahead of the cold front, to be in the 70s. Following frontal passage these daytime highs dip into the upper 50s across our northernmost counties and into the 60s elsewhere, with warmer temperatures as one heads closer to the Gulf Coast. Likewise, overnight low temps actually increase over the next few mornings ahead of the cold front. They`ll be rising into the mid to upper 50s by Thursday morning. Friday morning they`ll dip into the low to mid 40s and bottom out by Sunday morning into the mid and upper 30s with just the coastal strip remaining in the low to mid 40s. Patchy fog may continue to be an issue in some areas over the next couple mornings until the cold front moves through. Temperatures begin to rebound as we head into the next work week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 358 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Light to moderate offshore winds with dry weather expected to last through Wednesday morning, show passing showers are possible Wednesday afternoon. On Thursday and Friday, northwest winds are expected to increase to advisory-level as a cold front pushes through the area with gusts near 30 knots expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 358 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 A dry airmass will continue through the middle of the week. Winds will remain light through tomorrow, then a cold front will blow through on Thursday with an increase in winds for Thursday and Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 358 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 There are currently no flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 55 76 58 78 / 0 10 0 0 Panama City 58 74 63 75 / 0 10 0 0 Dothan 52 73 55 73 / 0 30 0 0 Albany 50 74 55 74 / 0 20 0 0 Valdosta 52 76 55 77 / 0 20 0 0 Cross City 57 79 60 78 / 10 10 0 0 Apalachicola 59 75 64 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285186 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:06 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 558 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 117 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 - A high risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at Central Florida`s Atlantic beaches today. Please stay out of the ocean. - There is a low, conditional threat for a couple of strong storms Wednesday afternoon south of Melbourne, with wind gusts up to 50 mph and coin-sized hail. Widespread heavy rain is not expected. - We still anticipate the coolest air so far this fall to arrive in Central Florida from Friday night through early Sunday. Wind chills of 40-45 degrees are forecast Saturday and Sunday morning from Greater Orlando northward. - Extensive flooding continues along the St. Johns River due to exceptional rainfall in the upper reaches of the basin last week. Heed the advice of local officials. The latest river forecasts are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 117 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Rest of Today-Wednesday...High pressure over the eastern US weakens and moves offshore through Wednesday ahead of a low pressure system dropping through the Great Lakes. Light winds prevail this afternoon, with a low (20%) chance for a few showers south of Orlando over the interior into this evening. A mid-level shortwave is forecast to traverse the Florida peninsula on Wednesday, supporting a slight increase in PoPs. PWATs >1.5" from around Melbourne southward and energy aloft are expected to generate scattered showers and storms Wednesday afternoon, while areas to the north remain dry. A few strong storms will be possible, with modest lapse rates and 500 mb temperatures near -10 to -11 C. The main threats will be gusty winds 45-50 mph and hail. Temperatures remain above normal in the lower to mid-80s during the daytime hours. However, will see lows tonight in the upper 60s to lower 70s fall to the upper 50s to mid-60s Wednesday night. Thursday-Tuesday...The low pressure system moves through the Northeast US late week and deepens. Locally, a pre-frontal trough looks to pass through the Florida peninsula on Thursday, providing a precursor reduction in available moisture, humidity, and temperatures. PoPs decrease area-wide for Thursday, with just a few lingering showers possible along the southern Treasure Coast (20%) due to continued moisture across south Florida. High temperatures cool to nearer to normal, in the upper 70s to near 80, with overnight lows dipping into the mid to upper 50s from near Orlando northward. Westerly winds Thursday increase to around 10-15 mph. However, the biggest change will follow the main, stronger cold front on Friday. Much drier air behind the front will decrease PWATs to 0.5" or less. Thus, PoPs below 10% continue through the weekend. Northwesterly winds on Friday veer northerly on Saturday, ushering in cooler temperatures. Highs in the upper 60s north of I-4 and in the lower 70s elsewhere on Friday fall further, into the mid to upper 60s on Saturday. Overnight lows Friday night and Saturday night fall into the mid to upper 40s across the normally cooler locations, while the coast remains in the lower 50s. But, winds hovering around 5-10 mph overnight will produce wind chills in the lower to mid-40s inland. Moisture and temperatures rebound Sunday and into early next week, as ridging builds into the eastern US. Temperatures slowly climb to near normal through the period, with low to medium (20-40%) PoPs returning. && .MARINE... Issued at 117 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Generally favorable boating conditions persist through Wednesday, as high pressure lingers over the area. Winds become offshore through the period, remaining around 10-12 kts or less. Seas 2-4ft, as seas to 5ft in the Gulf Stream diminish. A few to scattered showers are possible offshore overnight tonight. Then, are forecast along the southern Space and Treasure Coasts Wednesday afternoon. A few storms may be strong, with gusty winds to 40 kts and hail. A series of cold fronts is forecast into the weekend, beginning Thursday. W to NW winds Thursday night and Friday increase to 15-25 kts, especially offshore. Periods of poor to hazardous winds then continue through at least Saturday, before conditions begin to improve Sunday. Seas build to 4-6ft as winds increase, especially in the Gulf Stream. Drier air behind the fronts will reduce rain chances. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 549 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Light and variable winds tonight with dry conditions. Patchy fog may be possible along and north of I-4 once again late tonight. However, confidence is low. So have introduced lower ceilings, FEW008, for MCO and ISM for tonight. Winds turn west to southwest and increase to 5-10 KT by mid morning Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon, mainly from MLB southward. Some storms may be strong. Have introduced VCTS from MLB southward starting at 18Z. Have not included TEMPOs at this time due to timing uncertainty. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 117 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Fire weather conditions remain above critical thresholds through Thursday. Then, drier air filtering in behind a cold front is forecast to reduce min RH values to 40-45% from Melbourne northward on Friday and 35-45% on Saturday. NW winds 10-15 mph Friday become N on Saturday. Moisture looks to return Sunday into early next week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 117 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 River flood warnings remain in effect for all St. Johns River forecast points (Cocoa, Geneva, Sanford, DeLand and Astor). River levels are forecast to continue holding steady or slowly rise over the next several days. Specifically, the river west of Cocoa (COCF1) is within Major Flood Stage, with other points within or forecast to reach Minor to Moderate flood stage. River forecasts out five days are issued twice daily by the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available online at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB. While a few storms may develop on Wednesday, widespread heavy rain is not forecast. There is a 10-20% chance of localized rainfall amounts exceeding 1/2" along the Treasure Coast. The next significant rain chance should then hold off through at least early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 65 82 60 80 / 10 10 10 0 MCO 69 83 64 79 / 10 10 0 0 MLB 70 83 65 80 / 20 30 10 0 VRB 69 85 65 80 / 20 40 20 10 LEE 67 82 62 79 / 0 10 0 0 SFB 67 83 62 80 / 0 10 0 0 ORL 68 83 63 79 / 10 10 0 0 FPR 69 84 65 79 / 20 30 30 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1285185 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:48 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 534 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 532 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers will remain possible through the middle of the week. Some thunderstorm development will also be possible on Wednesday afternoon. An isolated strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out mainly across the Lake Okeechobee region during this time frame. - A strong cold front will push through the region on Thursday night into Friday morning. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible out ahead of the front. - Behind the front, much cooler and drier air will push into the region for the upcoming weekend along with breezy conditions as high pressure builds in from the north. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 200 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Weak mid level ridging will gradually move eastward today in response to a fast moving shortwave which will move towards the lower Mississippi Valley tonight before moving across the Northern Gulf coast and into Northern Florida as Wednesday progresses. At the surface, high pressure will gradually push into the western Atlantic today and it will continue to pull further away from the region tonight into Wednesday. While plenty of drier air will remain in tact across the mid to upper levels of the atmospheric column, lower level moisture will continue to filter in over the region as a light east to southeasterly surface wind flow continues today. This will help to keep PWATs generally between 1.4 and 1.6 inches area wide today with most of this moisture residing in the lower portion of the column. While most of the region will remain dry today, this lower level moisture will be just enough to have the potential to spark off some isolated shower activity mainly due sea breeze interactions later in the afternoon. Any shower that does develop today will be low topped, however, a brief heavy downpour cannot be entirely ruled out with any stronger shower that is able to take advantage of additional forcing from mesoscale boundary collisions. High temperatures today will generally range from the lower to mid 80s along the east coast and Lake Okeechobee region to the upper 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida. The aforementioned shortwave that will be pushing across the Northern Gulf coast and into Northern Florida on Wednesday will stay well off to the north, however, it will help to shift the mid level wind flow to more of a southwesterly direction. At the same time, it will help to introduce some cooler air aloft (500mb temps of -8 to -10C) over the region which will help to create some steeper lapse rates especially up towards the Lake Okeechobee region which will be closer to the shortwave. As the surface high pulls further away, winds at the surface will remain rather light, however, the synoptic flow will gradually veer to more of a southerly direction as the day progresses. As deeper layer moisture advects into the region, this could create the opportunity for higher chances of shower and thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening hours. With a southwesterly steering flow in place, afternoon convection will favor the interior/Lake Okeechobee region as well as portions of the east coast metro areas. The main forcing mechanism for initial convective development will still be the sea breeze boundary collisions. While strong thunderstorm development chances will still remain on the lower end, with the colder air aloft and the additional instability in place some isolated strong thunderstorm activity cannot be ruled out especially where mesoscale boundary interactions take place. The stronger storms would be capable of producing gusty winds, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and heavy downpours. The best chances of stronger thunderstorm activity on Wednesday would tend to favor the Lake Okeechobee region as that is where the colder temperatures will be aloft closer to the actual shortwave. High temperatures on Wednesday will generally rise into the lower to mid 80s, however, upper 80s are possible over Southwest Florida mainly south of Alligator Alley. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 200 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 The weather pattern starts to change heading into Thursday and Friday as a series of strong mid level shortwaves push across the Midwest Wednesday night and then into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast for Thursday and Friday. Mid level troughing will extend well down to the south into the Gulf and over the Southeastern part of the county as well as the Florida Peninsula during this time frame. At the surface, an area of low pressure will dive across the Midwest and into the Mid Atlantic states on Thursday before gradually pushing off the New England Coastline Thursday night into Friday. The cold front associated with this intensifying system will extend southwestward through the Southeastern States on Thursday and then across the Florida Peninsula Thursday night into Friday. Out ahead of this frontal boundary, the pressure gradient will increase across South Florida on Thursday as winds veer to a southwesterly direction. This could create breezy and gusty conditions across the area during this time frame. The latest guidance trends seems to be leaning towards a faster frontal passage across the region which would occur later Thursday night into early Friday morning. With guidance trending towards the faster and more progressive solution, shower activity will be more scattered in nature out ahead of the front from Thursday into early Friday morning. This also would suggest chances for thunderstorm development will remain rather low as the best dynamics and instability associated with the system will be located well off to the northeast of the region. High temperatures on Thursday will generally range from around 80 across the Lake Okeechobee region to the lower to mid 80s further to the south. Behind the front, winds will gradually shift and increase out of the northwest across the region for the rest of Friday. This will allow for strong cold and dry air advection to take place especially heading into Friday afternoon as strong high pressure begins to build in from the north. This area of high pressure will keep dry conditions in place through the upcoming weekend and it will usher in the coolest airmass of the fall season so far. Cold air advection will continue to take place through the first part of the weekend before winds start to shift and become more northeasterly on Sunday. Before the northeasterly wind shift, low temperatures could drop into the 50s across most areas on Friday night into Saturday morning, and then again on Saturday night into Sunday morning. High temperatures on Saturday may only reach the upper 60s along and north of Alligator Alley due to the strong cold air advection while areas south of Alligator Alley see high temperatures in the lower 70s during this time frame. High temperatures on Sunday will start to moderate as the winds become northeasterly and cold air advection comes to an end. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 532 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 VFR is expected for the period. NE winds will become light and variable overnight with winds becoming more SE tomorrow afternoon. There will be some potential for a few SHRA/TS tomorrow after 18Z, with mentions of VCTS currently after 18Z tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 200 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 A gentle to moderate easterly breeze will gradually shift and become more southerly heading towards the middle of the week. Isolated to scattered showers will remain possible today, however, chances of showers and thunderstorms will start to increase on Wednesday especially across the Atlantic waters. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less through the middle of the week. A strong cold front will gradually approach the local waters on Thursday before pushing through the region during the end of the week. Behind the front, hazardous marine conditions may develop across the Atlantic and Gulf waters for the end of the week as winds and seas increase. && .BEACHES... Issued at 200 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 74 85 72 84 / 10 30 30 40 West Kendall 74 85 72 84 / 0 30 20 40 Opa-Locka 73 86 72 84 / 10 40 30 40 Homestead 74 85 72 84 / 10 20 20 40 Fort Lauderdale 73 84 71 82 / 10 40 30 40 N Ft Lauderdale 73 84 71 82 / 10 40 50 40 Pembroke Pines 73 86 71 84 / 10 40 30 40 West Palm Beach 72 84 70 81 / 10 40 50 30 Boca Raton 73 84 70 81 / 10 40 60 40 Naples 72 84 72 81 / 10 10 30 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285184 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 447 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 358 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 - There is a low chance of fog tomorrow morning across portions of southwest Georgia and the Florida Big Bend from the Flint River Valley eastward and southeastward to Cross City. - Dry weather will persist through Wednesday morning with seasonably cool overnight lows and mild afternoon highs. A blast of cold air is expected for the end of the work week, into the weekend, with a low to medium chance of frost over the weekend away from the coast. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (This Evening through Monday) Issued at 358 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Generally benign weather conditions are expected throughout the forecast period. Light westerly winds through Wednesday give way to breezier conditions Thursday and Friday as a trough digs south across eastern CONUS pushing through a dry cold front. Before that happens, a quick moving shortwave currently in the southern Plains looks to move across the northern Gulf States through tomorrow night. As it does so it`ll eject PV ahead of it, potentially producing just enough PVA to help force a couple passing showers across the region late tomorrow morning and into the afternoon. Thursday through Friday, winds around 850mb will be around 25-35 kts and given that this frontal feature is expected to have very little moisture return, it`s expected that both afternoons will be mostly sunny. This will allow effective mixing of this high momentum air down to the surface with northwesterly gusts around 30 kts possible. Otherwise, behind the cold front, several reinforcing shortwaves round the base of the trough, sending back to back shots of cold, dry, northerly air to the deep south this weekend. Luckily, winds will begin decreasing Saturday into Sunday, depending on timing this could limit how cold feel-like temperatures get. Currently, models are hinting at feel-like temps around freezing during the overnight period for Friday night and Saturday Night. We`ll be monitoring trends throughout the week to determine how impactful this cold shot will be, stay tuned for updates. As mentioned, the temperature forecast essentially takes a dive throughout the week. Generally speaking, expect daytime high temps through Thursday, ahead of the cold front, to be in the 70s. Following frontal passage these daytime highs dip into the upper 50s across our northernmost counties and into the 60s elsewhere, with warmer temperatures as one heads closer to the Gulf Coast. Likewise, overnight low temps actually increase over the next few mornings ahead of the cold front. They`ll be rising into the mid to upper 50s by Thursday morning. Friday morning they`ll dip into the low to mid 40s and bottom out by Sunday morning into the mid and upper 30s with just the coastal strip remaining in the low to mid 40s. Patchy fog may continue to be an issue in some areas over the next couple mornings until the cold front moves through. Temperatures begin to rebound as we head into the next work week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with light west and northwest winds becoming calm tonight under scattered mid- level clouds. && .MARINE... Issued at 358 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Light to moderate offshore winds with dry weather expected to last through Wednesday morning, show passing showers are possible Wednesday afternoon. On Thursday and Friday, northwest winds are expected to increase to advisory-level as a cold front pushes through the area with gusts near 30 knots expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 358 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 A dry airmass will continue through the middle of the week. Winds will remain light through tomorrow, then a cold front will blow through on Thursday with an increase in winds for Thursday and Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 358 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 There are currently no flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 55 76 58 78 / 0 10 0 0 Panama City 58 74 63 75 / 0 10 0 0 Dothan 52 73 55 73 / 0 30 0 0 Albany 50 74 55 74 / 0 20 0 0 Valdosta 52 76 55 77 / 0 20 0 0 Cross City 57 79 60 78 / 10 10 0 0 Apalachicola 59 75 64 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285183 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:39 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 234 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 228 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 - A strong cold front pushes through the area on Thursday, bringing much cooler temperatures. Marine winds will strengthen behind the front along with building seas. - A light freeze is possible well inland late Friday night and Saturday night, roughly along and north of Highway 84. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 A weak shortwave will move across the area on Wednesday bringing a few light showers to parts of the area. However, the lack of significant moisture return and weak forcing will keep rainfall totals very light. However, the main story will be late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, as a strong cold front moves through the area. The coldest temps of the season will move into the area with lows Thursday night in the mid/upper 30s inland to mid and upper 40s near the coast. Highs on Friday only reach the low to mid 60s. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 50s and low 60s. The coldest nights will be Friday and Saturday night as high pressure settles over the region with below freezing temps likely north of Highway 84. Temps begin to moderate Sunday as another shortwave approaches the area with scattered showers possible again across the area on Monday. /13 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1117 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 VFR conditions along with light winds are expected this afternoon into tonight. An upper system passing over the northern Gulf coast later tonight though Saturday will bring rain showers to the southern half of the forecast area starting around sunrise over southwestern portions of the forecast to just after noontime over the southeastern portions of the forecast area. Winds in the morning are expected to be northwesterly 5 to 10 knots. /16 && .MARINE... Issued at 1255 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 High pressure over the area will maintain light winds and calm waves/seas through Wednesday. Winds increase out of the west late Wednesday into early Thursday ahead of an approaching strong cold front, expected to pass the area Thursday morning. This will lead to an increase in offshore moderate to strong flow Thursday and Friday. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 54 75 58 75 / 10 30 0 0 Pensacola 58 74 61 75 / 0 20 0 0 Destin 59 73 63 75 / 0 20 0 0 Evergreen 49 72 53 71 / 10 20 0 0 Waynesboro 49 77 53 72 / 0 10 0 0 Camden 47 72 54 69 / 0 10 0 0 Crestview 49 73 54 74 / 0 30 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285182 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:06 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 254 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 117 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 - A high risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at Central Florida`s Atlantic beaches today. Please stay out of the ocean. - There is a low, conditional threat for a couple of strong storms Wednesday afternoon south of Melbourne, with wind gusts up to 50 mph and coin-sized hail. Widespread heavy rain is not expected. - We still anticipate the coolest air so far this fall to arrive in Central Florida from Friday night through early Sunday. Wind chills of 40-45 degrees are forecast Saturday and Sunday morning from Greater Orlando northward. - Extensive flooding continues along the St. Johns River due to exceptional rainfall in the upper reaches of the basin last week. Heed the advice of local officials. The latest river forecasts are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 117 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Rest of Today-Wednesday...High pressure over the eastern US weakens and moves offshore through Wednesday ahead of a low pressure system dropping through the Great Lakes. Light winds prevail this afternoon, with a low (20%) chance for a few showers south of Orlando over the interior into this evening. A mid-level shortwave is forecast to traverse the Florida peninsula on Wednesday, supporting a slight increase in PoPs. PWATs >1.5" from around Melbourne southward and energy aloft are expected to generate scattered showers and storms Wednesday afternoon, while areas to the north remain dry. A few strong storms will be possible, with modest lapse rates and 500 mb temperatures near -10 to -11 C. The main threats will be gusty winds 45-50 mph and hail. Temperatures remain above normal in the lower to mid-80s during the daytime hours. However, will see lows tonight in the upper 60s to lower 70s fall to the upper 50s to mid-60s Wednesday night. Thursday-Tuesday...The low pressure system moves through the Northeast US late week and deepens. Locally, a pre-frontal trough looks to pass through the Florida peninsula on Thursday, providing a precursor reduction in available moisture, humidity, and temperatures. PoPs decrease area-wide for Thursday, with just a few lingering showers possible along the southern Treasure Coast (20%) due to continued moisture across south Florida. High temperatures cool to nearer to normal, in the upper 70s to near 80, with overnight lows dipping into the mid to upper 50s from near Orlando northward. Westerly winds Thursday increase to around 10-15 mph. However, the biggest change will follow the main, stronger cold front on Friday. Much drier air behind the front will decrease PWATs to 0.5" or less. Thus, PoPs below 10% continue through the weekend. Northwesterly winds on Friday veer northerly on Saturday, ushering in cooler temperatures. Highs in the upper 60s north of I-4 and in the lower 70s elsewhere on Friday fall further, into the mid to upper 60s on Saturday. Overnight lows Friday night and Saturday night fall into the mid to upper 40s across the normally cooler locations, while the coast remains in the lower 50s. But, winds hovering around 5-10 mph overnight will produce wind chills in the lower to mid-40s inland. Moisture and temperatures rebound Sunday and into early next week, as ridging builds into the eastern US. Temperatures slowly climb to near normal through the period, with low to medium (20-40%) PoPs returning. && .MARINE... Issued at 117 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Generally favorable boating conditions persist through Wednesday, as high pressure lingers over the area. Winds become offshore through the period, remaining around 10-12 kts or less. Seas 2-4ft, as seas to 5ft in the Gulf Stream diminish. A few to scattered showers are possible offshore overnight tonight. Then, are forecast along the southern Space and Treasure Coasts Wednesday afternoon. A few storms may be strong, with gusty winds to 40 kts and hail. A series of cold fronts is forecast into the weekend, beginning Thursday. W to NW winds Thursday night and Friday increase to 15-25 kts, especially offshore. Periods of poor to hazardous winds then continue through at least Saturday, before conditions begin to improve Sunday. Seas build to 4-6ft as winds increase, especially in the Gulf Stream. Drier air behind the fronts will reduce rain chances. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 1240 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Light and variable winds across the interior with onshore winds along the coast at 5-10 KT. Winds will become light and variable across east central Florida overnight. Patchy fog may be possible once again late tonight and into early Wednesday morning, mainly along and north of the I-4 corridor. Have not included in TAFs at this time though, due to low confidence. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds will become west to southwest and increase to 5-10 KT by mid morning on Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 117 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Fire weather conditions remain above critical thresholds through Thursday. Then, drier air filtering in behind a cold front is forecast to reduce min RH values to 40-45% from Melbourne northward on Friday and 35-45% on Saturday. NW winds 10-15 mph Friday become N on Saturday. Moisture looks to return Sunday into early next week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 117 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 River flood warnings remain in effect for all St. Johns River forecast points (Cocoa, Geneva, Sanford, DeLand and Astor). River levels are forecast to continue holding steady or slowly rise over the next several days. Specifically, the river west of Cocoa (COCF1) is within Major Flood Stage, with other points within or forecast to reach Minor to Moderate flood stage. River forecasts out five days are issued twice daily by the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available online at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB. While a few storms may develop on Wednesday, widespread heavy rain is not forecast. There is a 10-20% chance of localized rainfall amounts exceeding 1/2" along the Treasure Coast. The next significant rain chance should then hold off through at least early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 65 82 60 80 / 10 10 10 0 MCO 69 83 64 79 / 10 10 0 0 MLB 70 83 65 80 / 20 30 10 0 VRB 69 85 65 80 / 20 40 20 10 LEE 67 82 62 79 / 0 10 0 0 SFB 67 83 62 80 / 0 10 0 0 ORL 68 83 63 79 / 10 10 0 0 FPR 69 84 65 79 / 20 30 30 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1285181 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:49 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 241 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and seasonable weather continues for tonight and Wednesday. - A chilly rain likely late Thu into Sat, with some snow possible in the higher elevations of MA/CT && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonable weather continues for tonight and Wednesday. Dry subsident W to NW flow continues into Wednesday as southern New England remains under a flattened mid-level ridge. A moisture- starved shortwave drops southward overnight. This will mainly bring a period of breezy conditions overnight, mainly along the coast and interior higher elevations overnight. This will also bring in a slightly cooler airmass aloft by Wednesday. At most, temperatures may be a degree or two cooler than Tuesday. Highs will likely rise into the low to mid 50s with the exception of the CT Valley with upper 50s in spots. Mid/upper level moisture will support some cloud cover mixed in with sunshine. KEY MESSAGE 2...A chilly rain likely late Thu into Sat, with some snow possible in the higher elevations of MA/CT Good model (AI and traditional models) agreement on a coastal low or series of lows tracking somewhere along or south of New England in the Thu-Sat timeframe. Although, there is considerable uncertainty in the guidance on multi waves vs one consolidate low, along with the magnitude/intensity of each wave. Therefore, large differences on QPF, axis of heaviest QPF, along with location/track of dry slot. As for ptype, given the lack of cold air (warm blyr), most of the region will likely experience a chilly rain, especially the coastal plain and big population centers of Boston, Worcester, Providence and Hartford. For snow in the coastal plain to occur with this setup, a stronger system would be required, with strong height falls cooling the column from top down to erode warm boundary layer. Also, heavy precip would be required to cool the column via diabatic cooling from melting, and models show a very large spread in axis of heaviest QPF. Thus, a low confidence forecast on exact storm details. As for timing of precip, most 12z guidance, including the 12z REFS, Thu may begin dry, but by days end, most guidance has rain falling over all of MA/CT/RI. A look at the ensembles, both AI and traditional models, only one or two members from both the EC and GFS ensembles have substantial snowfall across MA/CT/RI. Thus, non-zero, but very low probability of this happening. Again, it would require a stronger system with significant height falls and heavy precip over SNE. Hence, a chilly rain for most of MA/RI/CT, with some snow possible across the higher elevations of MA/CT. As for snow probs from the ensembles, the 12z GEFS ensembles only have 10-20% probability for 3+ inches across Northern Worcester and the Berkshires. The CMC ensembles are very similar and the 12z ECENS have up to 50-60% of 3+ inches across the Berks, with 30-40% over Northern Worcester county. Ensembles suggest low slowly exits by Sunday, with some height rises over SNE. Thus, some improvement Sunday with drier weather and not as chilly as Sat, although remaining blustery Sunday. Additional improvement comes early next week with further height rises promoting seasonable temps (highs low 50s) and dry weather. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update... Today and Tonight...High confidence. Mainly VFR conditions for the rest of today and tonight. Some scattered to broken mid level decks between 030-040 at times this afternoon. W to WNW winds at 8-12 kts. Gusts 18-25 kts at times this afternoon with the higher gusts at ACK. Gusts diminish 20-22Z. Cape/Islands may see gusts linger into the overnight period. There is potential for a brief period with a few gusts up to 18 kts at BOS/ORH between 01-08Z tonight. Wednesday...High confidence. VFR conditions. SCT to BKN mid to high level clouds. Winds WNW at 8-10 kts. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Sunday/... Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. RA likely. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. RA. Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. RA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA, chance SN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance RA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Wednesday night...High confidence. Surface high pressure across the coastal waters tonight and Wednesday. Elevated winds continue this evening and early tonight as a dry front moves through with gusts 20-28 kts. Opted to keep the SCAs going for the outer southern waters and eastern waters since it is marginal. Seas 3-6 ft. Winds decrease early Wednesday morning, although seas may remain near 5 ft across portions of the southern outer waters through the afternoon Wednesday. SCAs will continue tonight through 12Z, but it is possible some of the southern zones may need to be extended due to the elevated seas. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Sunday/... Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain. Friday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Rain. Friday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain likely. Saturday: Strong winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Rain likely. Saturday Night: Strong winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Chance of rain. Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ232>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ250- 254>256. && $$ |
| #1285180 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 129 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 128 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 - Dry air and ongoing drought conditions will elevate fire spread concerns through this afternoon, and again at the end of the week behind a strong cold front. Residents in areas under burn bans should not conduct outdoor burning of any kind. Residents in areas without official burn bans should take extra precautions if burning outdoors. - A strong cold front will move through the area late this week bringing potential for frost and the first freeze of the season for some areas mainly Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Friday) Issued at 128 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Overall, a weak surface flow across the region with mostly clear skies this afternoon. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s as the upper levels provide us with a southwest flow, which will become slightly more active going into tonight and Wednesday. A positively tilted H5 trough currently resides over TX and guidance is trying to paint some lower end QPF over portions of the region Wednesday morning. A shower or two cannot be ruled out, but overall QPF is light...on average below 0.1" of rain. Of course this will not help the ongoing drought much, but it should help reduce fire weather at least for Wednesday with a bit more low level moisture in place. Going into Thursday the synoptic pattern transitions with a broad scale trough setting up over the eastern US and a rather strong albeit a dry cold front through the region Thursday. This will increase the northerly flow with CAA develop over the region. WIth the uptick in winds expect a cold night Thursday night or Friday morning, but not as cold due to mixing. Friday looks very dry and cooler. Afternoon highs will only warm into the mid and upper 60s after starting off in the lower 40s. Behind the front with dry air moving back in, slightly higher winds and given antecedent conditions, expect fire weather potential to increase. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Monday) Issued at 128 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Over time, a large synoptic H3 upper trough will dig well into the deep south by Thu into Fri. The orientation of the west side of this trough will be from northern Manitoba province of Canada directly into Louisiana. This setup will cause cold frontal passages to just keep making each day of the extended cooler and cooler, but slowly. Temps will lower enough to not move outside the 60s Friday and Saturday. Low temps, especially on Saturday morning, could dip into the mid 30s, in the usual cool spots. Some patchy frost will certainly be possible. A new upper trough will enter from the west coast over the weekend. As it moves east, it will run into the high ridging over the gulf coast from the Atlantic. Global models handle this somewhat different. The similarities are in a system actually developing and moving out of TX by the end of the weekend. The differences is in where this system moves. The GFS would like to take this in two different sections, one to the the north and one into the gulf. The EURO wants to just keep this in the gulf. There is a very good signal well past the extended portion of this weekend of another stronger synoptic system developing. The addition of this large scale system moving in, will have an effect on this weekends system. Pattern resolution says the weekend system should develop but weaken over time as it moves east and feels the return flow from a much stronger system developing to the west. This is well out side our fcast timeframe, but it is important in the overall evolution of the weekend system. (TE) && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 128 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Fairly benign conditions with VFR conditions anticipated through this TAF cycle. Winds will be light and variable across the board. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 128 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Generally benign conditions will persist through the middle of the week as the area remains under the southern periphery of a surface high. Early Thursday a strong cold front will enter the coastal waters and surge into the Gulf. Behind it strong northwest winds will quickly develop with hazardous conditions developing over the marine zones Thursday and likely persisting through Friday night. Additionally, late this weekend expect easterly winds and seas to increase with most marine areas seeing Small Craft Advisories going into the new workweek. (Frye) && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285179 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:37 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 335 PM AST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 335 PM AST Tue Nov 10 2026 - A high risk for life-threatening rip currents will continue through late tonight, becoming moderate by tomorrow through the weekend. - Moisture content at low-levels, diurnal heating and topographic effects will still support shower and thunderstorm development over the next few days, mainly over north to northwestern Puerto Rico each afternoon. - Sensitive individuals should remain hydrated and seek indoors during peak daytime heating hours, as the excessive heat risk will increase to moderate levels later this week into the weekend. && .Short Term(This evening through Thursday)... Issued at 335 PM AST Tue Nov 10 2026 Additional activity is expected this afternoon mainly over northern to northwestern portions of Puerto Rico. A mid- level ridge building aloft will promote more subsidence and drier air in the mid-levels through the short-term period. However, precipitable water values will remain seasonal with the highest concentration at the low-levels. This combined with increased diurnal heating due to clearer skies expected during the morning, and terrain effects will promote shower and isolated thunderstorm development each afternoon over the north to northwest region, driven by a predominant S-SE wind flow. Meanwhile, passing showers during the morning are still possible over the windward areas. Winds are expected to increase in speed on Wednesday onwards due to a local pressure gradient tightening caused by a surface high pressure system. This could limit high rainfall accumulations, as the wind flow will promote faster-moving showers. Nonetheless, there`s an 80% chance of 24-hour precipitation exceeding 0.5 inches mainly over north/northwestern Puerto Rico on Thursday. Given these conditions, the potential for excessive rainfall will be present each afternoon, mainly towards northwestern Puerto Rico. This will pose a threat of ponding of water over roadways and poorly drained areas, along with isolated urban and small stream flooding. In addition, landslides should not be ruled out due to saturated soils from previous days` activity. Additionally, above-normal 925 mb temperatures, seasonal moisture content at low-levels, and low cloud cover could trigger hot and humid conditions, which will increase heat indices over the next few days to levels that affect most individuals sensitive to heat. Thus, these individuals are encouraged to remain hydrated and seek cooler areas during peak daytime heating hours. && .Long Term(Friday through next Monday)... Issued at 335 PM AST Tue Nov 10 2026 A mid-level ridge establishing over northeastern Caribbean late this weekend should promote more stable conditions over the weekend. As a result, warming temperatures at the mid-levels (500mb), with a 80% chance of exceeding -6 degrees Celsius each afternoon until early next weekend, could promote subsidence and stability aloft. In addition, a surface high pressure will increase the local pressure gradient, strengthening winds from the S-SE. This pattern will extend into early next week, and while more stable conditions are expected, low-level moisture and local effects should enhance shower and isolated thunderstorm activity each afternoon mainly towards the interior to northwest region, driven by a predominant S-SE wind flow. Deeper convection is expected on Friday, with more shallow convection expected for the rest of the period. However, the probability of rainfall accumulations exceeding at least 0.5 inches in 24 hours remain below 30% on Friday until Monday, suggesting that we could see less intense downpours during this period. By Tuesday, a disturbance will drag moisture into the islands, increasing the chance of exceeding 0.5 inches of rainfall to 40-50%. The highest flooding potential is expected on Friday, mainly towards northwestern/northern Puerto Rico. This will pose a threat of flooding impacts. Additionally, with a S-SE wind flow, seasonal moisture content in the low-levels, and minimal cloud cover could trigger hot and humid conditions, especially during the weekend, likely to increase heat indices to levels that affect most individuals sensitive to heat. Therefore, they are encouraged to stay hydrated and cool during peak daytime heating hours. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 335 PM AST Tue Nov 10 2026 Mainly VFR conditions to prevail through the period. -SHRA/SHRA developing across sectors of northern PR, with VCTS mainly affecting TJBQ. This pattern can persist through 10/22Z. Surface winds should range between 4 to around 12 kts with higher gusts, sea breeze variations, and an ESE background flow, through 10/22Z. Winds decreasing after 10/22Z, before picking up again after 11/13Z to up to around 8 to 13 kts from the ESE with sea breeze variations and local effects. && .MARINE... Issued at 335 PM AST Tue Nov 10 2026 A northerly swell will maintain elevated seas up to 4 to 5 feet across the Atlantic waters and local passages through at least Wednesday. Elsewhere, seas across the Caribbean waters will generally remain at 1 to 3 feet. A surface high pressure moving through the Central Atlantic will tighten the local pressure gradient, promoting an increase from light to gentle winds today, becoming moderate to locally fresh by Wednesday onwards. This will cause choppy seas across most local waters through early weekend. Showers and isolated thunderstorms may produce locally higher winds and seas. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 335 PM AST Tue Nov 10 2026 The ongoing swell will continue to promote hazardous swimming conditions through tomorrow morning along the north-facing and exposed beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra. This will continue to produce life-threatening rip currents in the surf zone. A moderate-to-limited risk for life-threatening rip currents will persist through the remainder of the forecast period. Beachgoers should exercise caution when swimming at the beach and remain updated with the latest forecasts as they become available. Showers and thunderstorms will remain a concern each afternoon especially along the northern and northwestern beaches of Puerto Rico. If you hear thunder seek shelter immediately. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ001-002-005- 008-010-012. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1285177 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:36 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 130 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon, mainly along and south of I-10. - Additional round of showers and storms is expected this evening through early Wednesday. A few storms could become strong to severe with hail and heavy downpours as the main risk. - Cold front is expected Wednesday night followed by drier cooler weather for the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 125 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Periods of showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and move east-northeastward across portions of SE Texas early this afternoon. Latest satellite imagery and surface observations show the upper lvl trough moving over TX/south Plains, while at the surface, a coastal trough moves northeastward along the Middle TX coast. With increasing WAA, and bulk shear of 40 to 55 knots, isolated hail (up to 1") will be possible with any strong cells through late this afternoon and evening. The best potential for stronger showers and storms will remain roughly along and south of I-10, which is where the best moisture availability persists. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity this evening and overnight as the trough lifts northward along the Upper TX coast. Therefore, we will continue to monitor areas from Conroe coastward for additional convection redevelopment this evening and overnight. With decent dynamics aloft, bulk shear and cool mid-level temperatures; a risk of isolated hail will remain possible with the strongest storms. SPC highlights this threat in their Day 1 outlook for severe weather with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5). Showers and storms should gradually taper off after sunrise Wednesday as the main forcing and sfc convergence move out of the region. Skies will slowly clear out from the northwest, though cloud cover may persist over the coastal zones. Highs will generally be in the 70s with some locations reaching the low 80s across our far northern counties. A low over the northeastern CONUS will drag a cool dry front that will enter the region late Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing drier northerly air. This surge of cooler air will be felt more through the night with overnight lows dropping into the mid 40s to upper 50s by Friday morning and Saturday morning. Ridging aloft breaks down later this weekend as a mid to upper low/trough moves across the Plains. This will result in the return of rain and storm chances Sunday into early next week. JM && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1134 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Isol showers continue to move across the region from west to east, mainly south of I-10. These are anticipated to last through the afternoon. The strongest convection is anticipated to remain out offshore; therefore, TS remains out of TAFs for today. Outside of any -SHRA, VFR persists today with LGT and VRB winds. The next round of showers are anticipated to cross the region later this evening into early Wednesday, bringing an an increasing chance of TS. TS currently remains out of the PROB30 due to conflicting guidance, but will be monitored as the TAF cycles continue. MVFR-IFR CIGS/VIS are conducive becoming the main flight impacts overnight into Wednesday. After showers taper off, VFR returns with LGT and VRB winds. CMW && .MARINE... Issued at 125 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon, and will persist through the evening and overnight hours. This is in response of an approaching coastal trough that will continue to lift northward along the Middle and Upper TX coast through early Wednesday. The environment will continue to be conducive for strong thunderstorms capable of producing hail, heavy downpours and lightning. The best potential for strong storms will be later this evening through early Wednesday morning. A cool front will move through the bays and coastal waters Wednesday night into Thursday morning, resulting in moderate offshore winds and seas up to 4 ft (well offshore). Light onshore winds resume by early Friday. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 73 57 79 56 / 10 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 76 61 78 61 / 20 60 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 75 67 74 65 / 20 60 50 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 2 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ330-350-370. && $$ |
| #1285178 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:36 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 122 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 119 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 - The chance for light rain continues tonight. - Areas of fog possible early Wednesday morning. - Frontal passage possible Thursday or Friday with rain chances returning by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 119 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 As of this afternoon, the heaviest rainfall has moved offshore, while lingering light showers/rain continues across portions of S TX. Models indicate additional light showers through the evening hours along with a few thunderstorms across the coastal waters. Models are in fair agreement with the mid level trough and surface trough of low pressure tracking east overnight, and ending rain chances from west to east through Wednesday morning. In its wake, drier mid level air is progged to filter across S TX while low level moisture will remain in place. Combined with light winds, may allow for marginally efficient radiational fog to develop across inland portions of S TX where there are breaks in the clouds. A mid level ridge of high pressure is forecast to build across S TX through the remainder of the work week, maintaining very low to nil rain chances. A dry cold front is expected to reach S TX by Thursday and stall. Lots of uncertainty as to where the front stalls, but it will be the focus for rain over the weekend as an upper level trough approaches from the west. Not much cold air advection expected with this next cold front, but may be most noticeable Thursday and Friday nights with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. Overall, expecting temps to be near to slightly above normal through the period. Minor coastal flooding is not expected tonight, but could be close as tides will remain elevated through the next high tide this afternoon/evening. Will continue to monitor trends for any tides that are higher than currently expected. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 119 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Light to moderate rain will continue through this evening, then is expected to end from west to east overnight tonight. Patchy to areas of fog will be possible in the wake of the exiting rain, especially for inland locations. VSBYs could drop to IFR/LIFR at times toward early Wednesday morning. Regardless if fog develops, CIGs are also forecast to be at IFR/LIFR levels tonight through Wednesday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 119 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected through this evening, then ending from west to east overnight into Wednesday morning. Winds are expected to become light and variable as a surface low lifts northeast along the Texas coast. A cold front is forecast to move into South Texas Thursday or Friday and possibly stall across the area. If it moves through the area, a moderate to fresh northerly breeze may develop in its wake, then decreases through Friday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 119 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Recent rainfall and additional rain chances through this evening will continue to keep the fire risk low through the next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 63 76 62 78 / 60 10 0 0 Victoria 60 76 59 77 / 70 10 0 0 Laredo 62 75 63 78 / 10 10 0 0 Alice 59 75 60 77 / 60 10 0 0 Rockport 63 77 63 79 / 60 20 0 0 Cotulla 59 74 59 76 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 60 76 60 79 / 40 10 0 0 Navy Corpus 67 76 67 76 / 60 10 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285176 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:24 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 215 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Precip chances have decreased on Thursday and Friday. Winds have also trended downwards as well this weekend. Updated Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above normal temperatures through Thursday. 2) Surface low passes to the north with its associated cold front tracking across ENC near the end of the week bringing breezy conditions to the area. Behind the cold front well below normal temperatures are forecast this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Another great fall day across ENC under clear skies, steady SW`rly winds, and temps in the 70s this afternoon as high pressure centered offshore remains the main weather feature across the area. As we get into tonight, zonal flow aloft pushes offshore as a weak upper level trough out ahead of a second and stronger upper level trough noted well to the west in the Upper Midwest pushes across the Southeast late tonight into Wednesday. Associated weak shortwave also pushes across the Carolinas tonight into Thurs morning as well. While there will be forcing in place, with ample dry air over the Mid-Atlantic, outside of high cirrus overspreading ENC tonight not expecting any precip with this shortwave. Winds look to decouple tonight as well, so if cirrus remains thin enough another threat for some non impactful ground fog will be possible especially along the coast where the lightest winds will be in place. Dry weather continues across ENC through Fri with slightly above avg temps as highs get into the 70s Wed/Thurs. KEY MESSAGE 2...Biggest change in the forecast for later this week and weekend is that both precip chances and winds have been trending down for this weekends system. Deep upper level trough in the Upper Mid-West will dive SE`wards into the Ohio River Valley Thurs into Fri with associated jet streak pushing off the east coast and strengthening during this timeframe. At the same time, strong shortwave also rounds the base of this trough Thurs into Fri as well promoting lift across the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, low pressure in the Upper Mid-West on Wed pushes SE`wards on Thurs while deepening and then transferring its energy to a second offshore low south of Long Island. This has been where the biggest change in the forecast has occured as ensemble, AI, and deterministic guidance has trended towards a more northern track for this surface low which as a result has trended precip chances down once again to sub-mentionable levels and has lowered the winds. So while the 30-40+ mph gust risk has lowered it will still be breezy across ENC Thurs and again on Fri with steady 10-20 mph W-NW winds and gusts up to 25-35 mph possible. While winds have trended downward, if the strongest gusts are realized over a longer amount of time Thurs/Fri we could still see some minor coastal flooding concerns across the soundside OBX mainly north of Oregon Inlet, though confidence is low that this is more than nuisance water level rises given the decreasing trend in wind guidance. Behind the system, unseasonably cool air will flood into the area as Canadian high pressure system builds into the Eastern Seaboard this weekend behind the departing low knocking highs down into the 50s for the weekend and into early next week and offer the first real opportunity for a freeze Sat night and Sun night as lows get into the 30s each night. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are noted across ENC this afternoon with steady SW`rly winds as high pressure remains centered offshore. Expect continued VFR conditions for the most part across ENC through the next 24 hours as the high offshore remains the primary weather feature across the region. Will note much like last night we will likely decouple, which could once again lead to some patchy non-operationally impactful ground fog Wed morning mainly along the same TAF sites that saw it last night. Though guidance continues to suggest a blanket of high clouds over much of ENC tonight so that could limit this threat. For now have put in a line for 5SM MIFG at OAJ/EWN/MRH for now after 09Z as this area looks to have the best shot at seeing ground fog. Either way, no impact to operations is forecast. VFR conditions return regardless on Wed under light S`rly winds. Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are forecast through Wed night as high pressure and a much drier airmass remain in place, but shallow patchy fog will remain possible if winds go calm. Approaching storm system at the end of the week brings an increase in gusty winds though given the latest guidance with a lack of precip we could remain VFR into early next week for the most part. && .MARINE... High pressure has pushed offshore this afternoon bringing light SW`rly winds and 2-4 ft seas across our waters this afternoon. Winds will continue to remain light, generally around 5-15 kts out of the W to SW with seas lowering further closer to 10-3 ft on Wed. Outlook: Have made some changes to the extended period for our waters with the biggest change being that the gale force wind potential has gone down on Fri night into Sat across our coastal waters. Strong front approaches from the west on Thurs allowing for SW`rly winds to increase to 10-20 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts bringing our first threat for small craft conditions to our waters Thurs. Front tracks across the reason on Fri shifting winds to a NW`rly direction at 10-20 kts with gusts up around 25-35 kts. As noted before, wind forecast has trended down over the last day or so as strong low pressure looks to track well to the north of the area so while gale force wind potential has gone down, there still looks to be a solid chance at seeing widespread SCA conditions north of the Raleigh Bay area this weekend. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285175 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:21 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 215 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Minor coastal flooding will continue across the Upper Keys around the times of high tide, but high tides peaks will continue to trend downward. - Rain chances will remain near to below normal through mid week, with dewpoints remaining in the lower 70s. - The first strong cold front of the season will push through the Keys on Friday, and will open the door for a period of breezy to windy conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 A weak and broad area of high pressure is gradually passing across the area as it shifts from the southeastern Gulf to the Bahamas and western Atlantic. The center of this high is difficult to make out on satellite-derived products, but the anticyclonic flow of the cloud field suggests that the center of this high may be situated somewhere near, or over, South Florida. Our radar has remained dry this afternoon, likely due to a combination of the stable atmosphere and the decrease in moisture in the vertical column. Satellite-derived layered PWAT suggests that the pocket of air aloft has around a third of an inch less of water in the vertical column, or around 1.25", compared to this morning. This high pressure will continue to make its way toward the Bahamas and the western Atlantic, and will allow for a brief period of even lighter surface winds. Our relatively benign weather conditions will continue through Wednesday night/Thursday morning as the high shifts farther away. Over the course of Thursday and Friday, a pattern change will be underway for the Sunshine State. A cold front will progress down the peninsula, and is expected to knock on our backdoor sometime Thursday night and Friday. The tightening pressure gradient will result in a window of breezy conditions with a cooler northwesterly wind. Rain chances will also peak, around 30%, but the precise sensible weather will depend on just how far southerly the front can go. Guidance continues to favor the front lifting out of the area over the weekend, and a brief period of drier, cooler conditions will be left in its place. However, some ensemble members are highlighting the opportunity for an area of high pressure to take its place, and to reinforce the breezy to windy conditions from next Monday onward. Wind directions will shift northeasterly, but there is some question as to what kind of influence this will have on "backing up" the Gulf stream. Coastal Flood products may be needed once again early next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 200 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. High pressure across the area will support gentle to modestly moderate east to southeast breezes through Wenesday. In general, rain chances will remain slight at best, but a stray shower or two may result in light showers. Thursday night and Friday, a cold front will push across the Gulf and Florida peninsula, and will support a brief period of fresh to occasionally strong northwesterly breezes. The magnitude of these winds will depend on how far south the front can reach, so Small Craft Exercise Caution or Small Craft Advisories may be needed briefly as we approach the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 200 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 High pressure across the area will support VFR conditions through the TAF period. Occasional MVFR CIGs may be reported, particularly overnight, but these will only be due lingering fair weather clouds. Surface winds will generally be out of the east to east southeast, initially near 10 knots but decreasing to 5 to 10 knots overnight. Rain chances are very low, under 10 percent, so we are opting to maintain a dry TAF package. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 77 84 76 83 / 10 0 10 20 Marathon 78 84 77 83 / 10 0 10 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285174 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:09 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 152 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Near-normal temperatures through Thursday, turning colder Friday and over the weekend. - Little in the way of rain expected through the period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 150 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 High pressure remains just off the east of Florida giving us light winds and around average temperatures. This trend will continue into our Wednesday. By Thursday a strong and quick moving cold front will push through the area. This could spark a few showers mainly along the coast but most will stay dry as the front pushes through. After frontal passage we will see the coldest air of the season settle across the Florida. High will struggle to get into the 70 Friday afternoon. By Saturday morning most of us away from the coast will be waking up in the 40`s with highs in the 60`s. We will have one more colder morning on Sunday before the air mass starts to modify with highs back in the 70`s by Sunday afternoon. As we head into early next week there is some difference in model solutions. Both deterministic GFS and Euro show a low riding along the southern jet and impacting Florida. The difference is timing and how much moisture will be associated with it. GFS is quicker with it over us Monday night/Tuesday morning and a little drier while EURO is slower. Euro has it coming through Tuesday afternoon and evening with more moisture. Right now now we will keep lower PoPs through early next week. Temperatures will also be on the rise with highs back in the upper 70`s with lows in the 60`s. As we head into Thursday and Friday ridging will start to shift overhead as our upper level flow turns more northerly. This will dry us out and keep temperatures slightly above average with lows in the upper 60`s and highs in the mid 80`s. Saturday looks to be very similiar to our Thursday and Friday. However, by Sunday morning we will see our next cold front push through the area. This front will not bring a lot of shower activity but will bring some cooler air. Models right now showing lows in the low 60`s with highs in the mid to upper 70`s for next Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 150 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 VFR conditions through the period with winds generally below 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 150 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Light winds will remain over the area through Wednesday. By Thursday we will see a quick moving cold front push through behind it. After frontal passage we will see the winds increase through the afternoon and evening. Winds will peak around 15 to 20 knots Thursday night out of the northwest and stay elevated through Friday. By the weekend we will see winds shifting more north then northwest and they will drop slight but still remain around 15 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 150 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 We will see mostly dry conditions through the weekend with no fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 83 69 81 67 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 86 72 85 70 / 10 10 10 20 GIF 85 69 84 63 / 0 20 10 0 SRQ 83 70 81 69 / 0 10 10 10 BKV 84 64 81 63 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 81 70 79 69 / 0 0 0 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1285173 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:07 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 154 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence in appreciable rainfall late this week continues to decrease. Meanwhile, confidence in the first widespread sub- freezing nights of the season this weekend continues to increase. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry and seasonably mild through mid-week. 2) A strong cold front brings chances for showers Thursday-Friday, but any potential for appreciable rain is low. Much cooler temperatures follow behind the front with below freezing temperatures likely inland. && .DISCUSSION... As of 1220 PM EST Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonably mild through mid-week. Temperatures as of 12 PM have warmed into the mid-upper 60s for most of the area. Afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s are expected under clear skies with a light SW wind. Not as cold tonight with lows in the low-mid 40s for most. Another seasonably mild day is on the way for Wednesday with sky cover and temperatures very similar to today. However, unlike today, clouds will likely gradually increase in coverage late in the day as low pressure begins to take shape well NW of the region. KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings chances for showers Thursday-Friday, but any potential for appreciable rain is low. Much cooler temperatures follow behind the front with below freezing temperatures likely inland. A big change remains on the horizon as we approach late week. A shortwave trough is forecast to dive southward out of the north- central CONUS Wednesday, with a larger longwave trough and embedded upper low setting up shop over most of the eastern CONUS by Thursday and Friday. While isolated to scattered showers are possible Thursday and Friday, confidence is decreasing. PoPs have lowered to 25-40% along and north of I-64 and less than 25% south of I-64 on Thursday and 15-20% only across the Eastern Shore on Friday. The 12z GEFS only has a 20-40% chance for greater than 0.1" of rain with negligible probs for greater than 0.5" of rain. Meanwhile, the 6z EPS is similar with generally a 30-50% chance for greater than 0.1" of rain and negligible probs for greater than 0.5". As such, the main focus will be the much cooler temperatures that overspread the area behind the associated frontal passage as the anomalously strong trough moves into the region. Thursday looks to be the last mild day for a while with pre-frontal highs in the mid-upper 60s for most and around 70F SE. A series of cold fronts then crosses the local area Thursday evening and overnight, bringing much cooler temps by Friday. At this time, forecast highs Friday are only in the 50s. The large upper trough remains parked over most of the eastern CONUS Saturday, and this still looks like the coolest day of the period. Highs Sat are only expected to reach the lower 50s for most of the area with upper 40s possible across the far northern portions of the area (especially the lower MD Eastern Shore). These cool temps continue into early next week. Overnight lows will also be much cooler with lows in the upper 20s to around freezing for most locations away from the coast Friday, Saturday, and Sunday nights. Subfreezing temperatures may continue (for lows) Monday and Tuesday nights as well. As such, the growing season looks to be ending shortly for most areas. Will likely need a Freeze Watch as we get closer to the weekend. Gusty NW winds could make these temps feel even chillier. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1145 AM EST Tuesday... VFR conditions prevail through the 18z TAF period with mostly clear skies. SW winds of 5-10 kt this afternoon become light and variable tonight into early Wed. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue through the middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the west Thursday, with showers possible by Thursday, potentially lingering into Friday. Some short- lived sub-VFR conditions are possible with the frontal passage, along with some gusty NW winds and markedly cooler conditions behind the front for Friday and the weekend. && .MARINE... As of 155 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely late Thursday into Saturday as northwest winds increase behind a strong cold front. - Occasional gale-force gusts are possible Saturday, especially over the offshore coastal waters, but confidence in frequent gale conditions remains low. Generally benign marine conditions are expected through tomorrow as a weak front crosses the waters tonight. S-SW winds are averaging 10 to 15 knots this afternoon, and will become northerly in the wake of the front tonight. High pressure briefly returns for tomorrow, leading to light easterly flow (~5 to 10 knots) over the waters. Seas will average 2 to 3 feet, and waves in the Chesapeake Bay 1 to 2 feet. A stronger cold front crosses the waters late Thursday into Friday, with northwest winds increasing in its wake as CAA and a tightening pressure gradient develop across the region. Winds increase to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots Friday into Saturday, with the strongest winds likely expected Saturday morning into the afternoon. Some gusts to 35 knots are possible in the 20-60 nm coastal waters. The latest GFS/ECMWF generally show 925 mb winds peaking around ~25 to 30 knots Saturday morning, supporting at least widespread SCA conditions. In regards to probabilities for Gale force gusts, the 12z EPS remains the highest with 40-60% chances for gusts in excess of 34 knots, while the local wind probs, and especially the GEFS, are lower. The highest probabilities are focused across the 20- 60 nm coastal waters. Winds remain elevated into Saturday night, but gradually begin to diminish Sunday into early next week as high pressure returns. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285172 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 150 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Discussions updated. Chance of rain on Thursday is dropping to near zero. Potential is increasing for widespread freeze away from the coast on Saturday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above normal temperatures will continue with very minimal rain chances ahead of next cold front on Thursday. 2) A big cool down expected Friday into the weekend with frost/freeze conditions possible. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures will continue with very minimal rain chances ahead of next cold front on Thursday. Warm temps will continue in southwest to west flow ahead of next system through Thurs. A digging mid to upper trough will aid in an increase in some mainly passing mid to high clouds through midweek and will support some gusty winds and a very minimal chance of light showers on Thursday as it pushes a cold front through. Looks like the only chance of pcp on Thurs will be closer to daybreak or early morning. By noon, much drier air will be moving in from west to east across the forecast area. KEY MESSAGE 2...A big cool down expected Friday into the weekend with frost/freeze conditions possible. After a significant mid-upper trough pushes a cold front through on Thursday, breezy west to northwest winds will usher in considerably cooler and drier air for the weekend. Confidence is increasing for multiple nights featuring widespread 30s for overnight lows beginning Fri night and the potential for a widespread freeze is also increasing for Saturday night. This will also include several days of below normal temps near 60 or below. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High confidence in prevailing VFR conditions through the period. Light SSW winds this afternoon will drop off this evening but will pick up out of the SW to 5 to 10 kts on Wed after 15Z. Some cirrus will stream across the area from a system moving across the Gulf coast states. Extended outlook... VFR through at least Wednesday night. MVFR cigs may develop Thursday morning ahead of a strong cold front but confidence remains low. VFR to follow later Thursday into the weekend. && .MARINE... Mostly benign marine conditions will continue into late Wednesday with southwest to west winds mostly 10 kts or less. SW to W winds should increase starting Wednesday night ahead of a cold front with elevated/gusty west to northwest winds behind the front starting late Thursday. Best chc of minimal and brief Small Craft Advisory conditions would be Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Winds will remain mainly 10 to 20 kts Fri through Sat night as they veer slowly from NW to N. Seas in the 1-2 ft range in the nearshore waters and 2-3 ft in the 20-60 nmi waters will continue through Wednesday before increasing Wednesday night. Seas peak on Thursday with wave heights in the 2-5 ft range in the coastal waters and 5-7 ft range in the 20-60 nmi waters before subsiding somewhat on Friday. An easterly swell will be a dominant contributor to the wave spectrum through Wednesday with a period between 9 and 11 seconds before wind waves become the primary contributor Wednesday night into the weekend. Seas will drop as winds diminish Saturday through Sunday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285171 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:39 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 122 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections were updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will continue through Thursday. - 2) Frost/freeze conditions are possible Friday night through Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will continue through Thursday. Dry high pressure will prevail across the area Wednesday before being forced eastward as a cold front approaches the area Wednesday night and Thursday. Currently, model consensus on the timing of the front suggests that it will begin pushing through the forecast area Thursday afternoon and should shift offshore Thursday evening. The result will be well above normal temperatures each day before the coolest air of the season so far filters in for the late week and the weekend. Wednesday highs are forecast to reach the upper 70s, with similar values for Thursday. Lows will trend upward as well, with upper 40s and low 50s Wednesday morning and mid to upper 50s Thursday morning. Wednesday afternoon, a mid-level southern stream shortwave will move quickly across the Deep South and towards the forecast area in the afternoon. Hi-res models suggest this could be enough forcing to produce an area of light showers that could move into our southeast GA zones. However, a closer perusal of soundings reveals mostly mid- level moisture with substantial dry air below about 600 mb. Therefore, if this area of showers comes to fruition essentially no measurable rainfall is expected. Also of note, as the front moves in on Thursday we should see breezy conditions due to the combination of tightening pressure gradient, deep diurnal mixing, and the onset of cold-air advection. Frequent gusts into the 25-30 mph range can be expected. KEY MESSAGE 2: Frost/freeze conditions are possible Friday night through Sunday night. Friday: Notably cooler temperatures return heading into the weekend in the wake of a departing cold front. After a brisk start in the 40s to 50s, should see highs warm into the low to mid 60s across the region. West-northwestly winds will also be fairly breezy during this time, with gusts between 20 to 25 mph - so you may still want a grab a jacket before heading out. Cold air advection continues to surge throughout the overnight period, which may prompt our first frost formation of the season. That being said, wind speeds are still expected to remain high enough to keep the overall concern on the lower end for now. Our best chances for seeing frost look to occur Sunday morning, thanks to clear skies, light winds, and efficient radiational cooling. Otherwise, could see one more round of frost/freeze return Monday morning as cold temperatures linger. Nov 10 13z NBM 10km neighborhood probabilities for emergency management warming shelter planning: Friday Night/Saturday Morning: Inland Areas Coastal Corridor Temps 35 degrees or colder: 20-50% <5% Temps 32 degrees or colder: 5-10% <5% Temps 30 degrees or colder: <5% <5% Saturday Night/Sunday Morning: Inland Areas Coastal Corridor Temps 35 degrees or colder: 60-80% 10-30% Temps 32 degrees or colder: 20-40% 5% Temps 30 degrees or colder: 10-30% <5% Sunday Night/Monday Morning: Inland Areas Coastal Corridor Temps 35 degrees or colder: 20-50% 5-10% Temps 32 degrees or colder: 10-20% <5% Temps 30 degrees or colder: 5-10% <5% Frost Advisories, Freeze Watches and Freeze Warnings may eventually be needed, especially for areas roughly inland of US-17 in the Lowcountry and I-95 in Southeast Georgia. Detailed information on first freeze dates for the area can be found online at: https://www.weather.gov/media/chs/climate/AverageFirstLastFreezeDates.pdf && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 18z Wednesday. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail, with westerly winds gusting up to 25 kts of ahead of an advancing cold front Thursday. && .MARINE... Through tonight: Modest southwest to west-southwest flow will prevail across the local waters with speeds no more than 10-15 knots. Seas will remain in the 2-3 ft range. Wednesday Onward: Surface high pressure will continue across the Southeast U.S. through Wednesday, bringing a light to perhaps gentle breeze. Seas will be 2-3 ft within 20 nm and 3-4 ft for the 20-60 nm waters. Winds increase out of the southwest Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front, becoming gusty to near 30 knots. Likewise, wind-driven seas will build. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for our waters starting Thursday afternoon. Winds shift to become out of the west-northwest overnight into Friday, with a brief period of weakening winds during the morning/afternoon before wind speeds pick up again. Winds decrease below Small Craft Thresholds Saturday morning/afternoon, with the northwesterly winds ushering out the 6 feet waves around the same time. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285170 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 120 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches through Wednesday. - Strong Cold Frontal Passage Expected on Thursday Night. Small Craft Advisory Conditions Likely from Thursday Afternoon through at Least Saturday Morning. - Frost Possible Across Inland Southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley Early on Sunday Morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights: - Increasing Cloud Cover Should Prevent Fog Formation Tonight. Afternoon surface analysis depicts high pressure (1022 millibars) situated along the southeastern seaboard. Aloft...zonal flow prevails across the Deep South, downstream of a cutoff trough spinning over northern and western Texas. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a seasonably dry air mass remains in place across most of our area, with PWATs generally ranging from 0.5 to 1 inch, while values have recently climbed just above 1 inch across portions of north central FL. Deepening southwesterly flow downstream of the aforementioned upper trough over Texas was transporting high altitude cloud cover across our area this afternoon. A lingering dry air mass and filtered sunshine has boosted temperatures to the mid and upper 70s at 18Z, with a few locations in north central FL touching 80 degrees. Dewpoints ranged from the lower 40s across portions of southeast GA to the lower 60s for portions of north central and coastal northeast FL. High altitude cloudiness will increase through late this afternoon as the cutoff trough over northern and western TX dislodges and begins progressing eastward across as a shortwave trough. Otherwise, filtered sunshine and a dry air mass will allow temperatures to climb to the 75-80 degree range this afternoon, except lower 80s across north central FL. These values are about 5 degrees above mid- November climatology. Increasing mid and high altitude cloudiness overnight downstream of the approaching shortwave trough should prevent fog formation across our area, with light winds allowing lows to fall to the 50-55 degree range for most of southeast GA and inland portions of northeast FL, ranging to the low and mid 60s for portions of north central and coastal northeast FL. These values are near to slightly above mid- November climatology. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches on Wednesday. - Breezy Westerly Winds on Thursday. A pattern shift will begin through the latter half of the week as a large upper trough carves out across the eastern CONUS. Light winds and dry low levels will persist through Wednesday as the "lead" shortwave drifts overhead during the afternoon hours. Enough lift and mid level moisture will support light stratiform showers and sprinkles with the fast moving shortwave for locations along and north of I-10. Behind that feature, a weak cold front while pass as a formidable surface low shifts toward the Mid Atlantic and begins to quickly deepen through Thursday. The response to the intensifying low to the north will be a tightening local gradient and breezy offshore (westerly) winds with gusts around 15-25 mph. A second dry cold front passage Thursday night will push in drier and cooler air as flow turns northwesterly to end the work week. Breezy conditions and a fairly dry boundary layer will keep fog potential very low each night. Despite the weak cold front passage Wednesday night, temperatures will be temperate each day with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Lows tumble from the mid/upper 50s Wednesday night to the mid 40s and low 50s Thursday night behind the front. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Much cooler and drier Friday through Sunday. - Inland Frost Potential Southeast GA/Suwannee Valley Sunday Morning. Much cooler and breezy conditions will develop Friday and persist through the weekend. A stagnant upper trough will remain situated across the eastern US with embedded shortwaves rotating around it, sending reinforcing cold air into the area. As the cold Canadian surface ridge leaks into the region Saturday night, temperatures will chill to their lowest with lows into the mid 30s across portions of SE GA and the Suwannee Valley. Calming winds with the near-freezing temperatures will lend the potential for patchy to areas of frost development Saturday night. High pressure will then build to the north and then northeast Sunday through early next week resulting in gradual warming and breezy northeasterly winds. Rain chances will begin to increase next week as the southern stream begins to reengage allowing shortwaves to track across the Gulf and Florida. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals. Mid and high cloud cover will gradually increase and thicken overnight tonight, which should negate fog formation during the predawn and early morning hours. A brief period of MVFR visibilities will be possible after 07Z through around 11Z at VQQ, but confidence was too low to mention in the TAF at this time. Southwesterly surface winds sustained at 5-10 knots will prevail through around 23Z at the inland terminals, while a late developing Atlantic sea breeze shifts surface winds to east- southeasterly at SGJ towards 20Z and southerly at SSI towards 21Z. Surface winds will then diminish below 5 knots by 03Z. West or west-northwesterly surface winds will develop after sunrise, with sustained speeds increasing to around 5 knots towards 14Z Wednesday. && .MARINE... High pressure positioned along the southeastern seaboard will weaken and shift offshore tonight as a disturbance aloft progresses eastward towards the southeastern states. This system may produce isolated showers as it moves across our local waters on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will push southward from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday, with breezy west southwesterly winds developing after midnight on Wednesday night ahead of this front. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to develop by late Thursday afternoon and evening as westerly winds strengthen just ahead of the frontal passage, followed by an extended period of strong northwesterly winds beginning after midnight on Thursday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to continue through at least Saturday morning across our local waters. High pressure will then build over the Tennessee Valley on Saturday, with winds shifting to northerly on Saturday afternoon and evening, allowing seas to briefly subside. Breezy northeasterly winds are forecast to develop by Sunday as a stronger high pressure center builds southward from the Great Lakes region and weak low pressure potentially develops over the northern Gulf. Rip Currents: A lingering long period east-northeasterly ocean swell will keep a moderate risk in place at all area beaches through Wednesday. Strengthening offshore winds from Thursday through Saturday should yield a low risk. Breezy northeasterly winds developing by Sunday will likely create a moderate risk. && .FIRE WEATHER... - High Daytime Dispersions Possible Thursday And Friday. Dry conditions and light westerly winds persist through Wednesday, with poor to fair (30-40 units) daytime dispersions. Near critical humidity, down to the upper 20s to 30s, will develop again this afternoon and be followed by a slight upward trend Wednesday. There is a chance for very light rain and sprinkles Wednesday afternoon with a passing disturbance but only a few hundredths of rain are expected. A strong cold front will arrive Thursday night bringing breezy westerly winds ahead of it and gusty northwesterly winds behind it. The cold air will plunge into the area Friday and through the weekend and may lead to areas of frost for the Suwannee Valley and inland Southeast GA Saturday night/Sunday morning. Next chance for meaningful rain isn`t expected until next week. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Limited fog development through Wednesday with near-zero chance Thursday through Sunday. Patchy Frost possible across inland portions of southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley early on Sunday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 50 76 54 76 / 10 10 0 0 SSI 57 77 58 77 / 10 10 0 0 JAX 55 79 56 78 / 10 20 0 0 SGJ 61 78 60 77 / 10 20 0 0 GNV 59 80 57 78 / 10 20 0 0 OCF 61 81 59 78 / 10 10 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285168 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:54 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1242 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1241 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 - There is a medium chance of fog tomorrow morning across portions of southwest Georgia and the Florida Big Bend from the Flint River Valley eastward and southeastward to Cross City. - Dry weather will persist through the first half of this week with seasonably cool overnight lows and mild afternoon highs. A reinforcing blast of cold air is expected for the end of the work week, into the weekend, with a low to medium chance of frost over the weekend away from the coast. && .SHORT TERM & LONG TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 139 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 High pressure nearby will keep very light and variable winds across the area through midweek. Expect dry conditions to prevail with highs in the 70s and lows in the low 40s to low 50s. Southwesterly flow returns Wednesday as the gradient tightens in response to an approaching cold front. This front is forecast to push through the area Thursday, with breezy northwesterly winds ushering in a cooler and drier air mass in its wake. A few showers will be possible ahead of this front, but meaningful rainfall accumulation is not expected. Highs are forecast to fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s this weekend in the wake of the front with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. If the front is as strong as currently forecast, there may be some frost possible over the weekend and a low to medium chance of freezing temperatures across our far northern SE AL and SW GA counties Saturday night. A gradual warming trend is expected to start out next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with light west and northwest winds becoming calm tonight under scattered mid- level clouds. && .MARINE... Issued at 139 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Light to moderate offshore winds with dry weather expected to last into mid week. On Thursday and Friday, northwest winds are expected to increase to advisory-level as a cold front pushes through the area with gusts near 30 knots expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 139 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 A dry airmass will continue through the middle of the week. Winds will remain light through Wednesday, then a cold front will blow through on Thursday with an increase in winds for Thursday and Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 219 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026 Given the dry conditions expected over the next week, there are currently no flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 56 76 57 78 / 0 20 0 0 Panama City 58 75 63 76 / 0 20 0 0 Dothan 52 75 53 74 / 0 10 0 0 Albany 52 74 54 74 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 53 76 54 77 / 0 20 0 0 Cross City 59 79 58 78 / 0 10 0 0 Apalachicola 60 74 63 76 / 0 10 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285167 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:54 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1248 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1232 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 - A high risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at Central Florida`s Atlantic beaches today. Please stay out of the ocean. - The next chance (20-40%) of showers and storms arrives on Wednesday afternoon. There is a low, conditional threat for a couple of strong storms with wind gusts up to 50 mph and coin- sized hail. Widespread heavy rain is not expected. - We still anticipate the coolest air so far this fall to arrive in Central Florida from Friday night through early Sunday. Wind chills of 40-45 degrees are forecast Saturday and Sunday morning from Greater Orlando northward. - Extensive flooding continues along the St. Johns River due to exceptional rainfall in the upper reaches of the basin last week. Heed the advice of local officials. The latest river forecasts are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1232 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 -----------Synoptic Overview----------- The weather pattern near Florida has changed little over the last 24 hours. A weak subtropical jet extends from Texas to Georgia, south of a quasi-zonal polar jet passing over the Northern U.S. The air is still quite dry, especially from 850-700 mb. Slightly higher moisture resides near and offshore of Southwest Florida. A ripple of energy in the subtropical jet is still expected to eject from Texas into the Southeast later today through Wednesday. The jet stream configuration will become slightly more favorable for synoptic-scale lift during this period. Some of the moisture just southwest of the area is forecast to move northward over the next 48 hours, but guidance still disagrees on overall moisture return and available instability on Wednesday. The ingredients remain in place for the well-advertised pattern change late this week. As blocking develops over the northern latitudes of N America, significant amplification of the longwave pattern will begin late on Wednesday. Eventually, a deep trough will gather over the Eastern U.S. by Thursday. A vigorous shortwave digging through the developing trough will promote surface cyclogenesis over the Ohio Valley. As the low moves toward the Delmarva Peninsula, it is expected to force a strong cold front toward Florida. The front should arrive late Thursday and pass the entire district by Friday morning. Ensembles are in excellent agreement with pattern evolution through at least Saturday, when PWAT (moisture) values fall to 30-50% of normal and 925 mb temperatures dip to +6 to +10 deg C. This will represent the most significant continental air mass intrusion into the Florida Peninsula so far this autumn. Guidance slowly moves the large trough eastward this weekend, with the lowest 500 mb heights moving off the Northeast U.S. coast by late Sunday. Surface high pressure will follow in its wake, its center remaining well north of Florida. Once the high moves east of our longitude, onshore flow should redevelop on Sunday, allowing temperature moderation to begin. Guidance quickly breaks down the high-latitude block next week, allowing the flow to become progressive across the U.S. Therefore, the upcoming cooldown this weekend is not expected to last long, and unsettled weather also may not wait too long to return. For example, just yesterday the ECMWF-AIFS ensemble was nearly alone with its indication of another shortwave within the subtropical jet reaching the northern Gulf in about a week. Cluster analysis now reveals that nearly half of physics-based members support this solution. -------Sensible Weather & Impacts------- Today - Tonight... Status-quo weather is favored for most of us on this Tuesday. Aside from some patchy morning fog, we expect partly sunny and warm weather today with highs in the low to mid 80s. Beaches will still be a concern, as the lingering swell continues to produce a high risk of numerous rip currents. Please stay out of the ocean. With subtle moisture return expected over South Florida today, we have introduced a small (20%) chance of showers near Lake Okeechobee this afternoon and evening. Most areas will stay dry through tonight, however. Wednesday - Thursday night... We`ll be keeping an eye on a disturbance approaching from the Gulf on Wednesday. Moisture will be increasing a bit, but the extent is in question, with significant disagreement in the guidance. This adds up to a 20-40% chance of afternoon and early evening showers and storms, with the highest coverage along the coast south of Cape Canaveral. A few models, led by the ECMWF, have ample instability in place. Others, such as the HRRR, are more stable. With moderate effective shear profiles, there is a conditional chance of a strong storm Wednesday afternoon. Gusty winds of 45-50 mph and coin-sized hail would be the primary hazards. On Thursday, breezy westerly winds are forecast to develop, with drier air mixing to the surface in the afternoon. Only isolated shower chances persist through Thursday night, and mostly over our southern communities. Rainfall amounts through Thursday night look rather light, with only a 1-in-10 chance of exceeding a half inch along the coast from Melbourne southward. The strong cold front will not arrive until Thursday night. Despite more cloud cover, highs on Wednesday should reach the low to mid 80s with upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday. Friday - Weekend... With the cold front quickly marching off to our south, winds turn northwesterly on Friday and Saturday and stay breezy from time to time. This will usher cooler and drier air into the area, with the coolest air arriving early Saturday. Under clearing skies, highs on Friday should range from the upper 60s to low 70s, but dip on Saturday into the mid to upper 60s. Lows Friday and Saturday nights will be chilly, in the mid/upper 40s except low 50s along the coast from Cape Canaveral and points southward. Our coldest wind chills, near and northwest of I-4, should reach the 40-45 degree range. There is still a 15-20% chance for wind chills to reach the upper 30s near and north of Greater Orlando, especially on Saturday morning. As winds turn onshore, Sunday looks a little milder by afternoon (low/mid 70s). Early Next Week... As brisk onshore flow becomes established and deepens, moisture should return. Combined with a potential disturbance approaching from the west, 20-40% shower chances reenter the picture by Monday or Tuesday. It`s too early to determine whether heavy rainfall may occur. Near-normal temperatures are forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1232 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 High pressure should drift across the local area over the next couple of days, with lighter winds and improved boating conditions. An upper-air disturbance should spark a few showers and storms on Wednesday, with isolated strong and gusty storms possible. Behind a strong cold front late Thursday, winds increase, and seas build on Friday. Hazardous boating conditions return from Friday through Saturday, especially offshore. Light/variable winds today, becoming onshore up to 10 kt along the coast by afternoon. Winds turn SSW up to 10 kt on Wednesday, then W 10-15 kt on Thursday. Fresh northwest winds develop Thu night into Friday, 15-25 kt early Friday morning. Another surge of fresh NW winds may occur Friday night and early Saturday. Seas 3-5 ft today, subsiding to 2-3 ft on Wed/Thu. Seas on Fri/Sat build to 3-4 ft nearshore, and up to 7 ft in the Gulf Stream. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 1240 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Light and variable winds across the interior with onshore winds along the coast at 5-10 KT. Winds will become light and variable across east central Florida overnight. Patchy fog may be possible once again late tonight and into early Wednesday morning, mainly along and north of the I-4 corridor. Have not included in TAFs at this time though, due to low confidence. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds will become west to southwest and increase to 5-10 KT by mid morning on Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1232 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Fire weather thresholds should remain out of reach through Friday. By Saturday, much drier air arrives over Central Florida. RH minima are forecast to fall to 35-40% over the interior from Osceola County northward, with northwest winds around 10 mph. Moisture slowly returns beginning Sunday into next week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1232 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 River flood warnings remain in effect for all St. Johns River forecast points (Cocoa, Geneva, Sanford, DeLand and Astor). River levels are forecast to continue holding steady or slowly rise over the next several days. Specifically, the river west of Cocoa (COCF1) is within Major Flood Stage, with other points within or forecast to reach Minor to Moderate flood stage. River forecasts out five days are issued twice daily by the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available online at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB. While a few storms may develop on Wednesday, widespread heavy rain is not forecast. There is a 10% chance of localized rainfall amounts exceeding 1/2" along the Space and Treasure Coasts. The next significant rain chance should then hold off until early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 65 82 60 80 / 10 10 10 0 MCO 69 83 64 79 / 10 10 0 0 MLB 70 83 65 80 / 20 30 10 0 VRB 69 85 65 80 / 20 40 20 10 LEE 67 82 62 79 / 0 10 0 0 SFB 67 83 62 80 / 0 10 0 0 ORL 68 83 63 79 / 10 10 0 0 FPR 69 84 65 79 / 20 30 30 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1285165 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:39 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1235 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry & seasonable weather continues through mid-week with a good amount of sunshine. Temperatures range from the the 30s-lower 40s overnight to upper 50s in the afternoons. - Monitoring another storm Friday, although there remains high uncertainty in exact timing and storm track. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry & seasonable weather continues through mid-week with a good amount sunshine. Temperatures range from the the 30s- lower 40s overnight to upper 50s in the afternoons. Dry westerly flow continues through the middle of the week under zonal flow at the mid levels, sandwiched between a surface low over eastern Canada and high pressure over the southeast U.S. Not much change in the airmass overhead with 925 mb temps in the 6-8C range Tue/Wed. Some lingering moisture in the mid/upper levels moves through early leading to increased cloudcover this morning, but drying out/clearing up by the afternoon with plenty of sun. This continues Wednesday though we`ll start to see some moisture/increasing cloudcover filtering in later in the day Wednesday. Altogether, should see high temperatures each day topping out in the mid to upper 50s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Monitoring another storm Friday, although there remains high uncertainty in exact timing and storm track. The latest round of ensemble guidance continues to show large uncertainty in the development of a potential storm as we head into the late week/weekend, especially within the track of the low. While all guidance continues to indicate paths anywhere from Maryland to Nova Scotia, the ECMWF and Canadian ensembles (and their AI ensembles) have trended towards the 40N/70W benchmark or slightly south while the GFS ensemble shows tracks closer towards the southern New England coast. Despite the uncertainty in track, most guidance has indicated the low deepening into the mid 990mbs by early Friday morning as well as 850mb temperatures dropping to below freezing across southern New England by Friday evening, supporting chances for some snow to mix into the region Friday and Friday night across the higher elevation regions. Probabilities continue to indicate only a 30-50% chance for 1"+ of snow in the higher terrain, with the highest chances along the eastern slopes of the Berkshires, and less than 20% probability for 3" or more. As mentioned by previous forecasters, those probabilites assume a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio, and unless we get really heavy precipitation rates (highly unlikely), those 10:1 SLR accumulations would likely be lower with wetter snow characterization being more favored. Any winter weather impacts in the higher elevations are likely to be very limited to nil, and this is reflected by low probabilities of Minor winter storm impacts in the Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index. Heading into the second half the weekend, the low will push further into Atlantic Canada and high pressure begins to build over the Mid- Atlantic region, bringing a return to blustery and dry conditions to southern New England for the start of the next work week. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update... Today and Tonight...High confidence. Mainly VFR conditions for the rest of today and tonight. Some scattered to broken mid level decks between 030-040 at times this afternoon. W to WNW winds at 8-12 kts. Gusts 18-25 kts at times this afternoon with the higher gusts at ACK. Gusts diminish 20-22Z. Cape/Islands may see gusts linger into the overnight period. There is potential for a brief period with a few gusts up to 18 kts at BOS/ORH between 01-08Z tonight. Wednesday...High confidence. VFR conditions. SCT to BKN mid to high level clouds. Winds WNW at 8-10 kts. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Sunday/... Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. RA. Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA, chance SN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA, chance SN. Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA. Sunday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Wednesday night...High confidence. Westerly wind gusts of 20-25 knots will persist at times into early Wed with a second surge late of wind late Tue night behind a cold front. Therefore...have continued a Small Craft Advisory for many waters into Tue and even early Wed for our outer-waters before things finally diminish. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Sunday/... Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain, slight chance of thunderstorms. Friday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Rain. Friday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Rain likely. Saturday: Strong winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain likely. Saturday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain. Sunday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ232>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ250- 254>256. && $$ |
| #1285164 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:39 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1134 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cloudy and cool through Wednesday with some chances of mainly light rain. - Cold front is expected Wednesday night followed by drier cooler weather for the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 A mid-upper level ridge will continue to move eastward across Texas through late Tuesday, while a surface coastal trough meanders over the Lower to Mid Texas Coast and the northwestern Gulf waters. Rain chances will taper down overnight with areas along and south of I-10 still expected to have light to occasionally moderate showers and/or drizzle. The low temperatures will be a tad bit cooler tonight, ranging in the lower 50s for the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region, the mid to upper 50s over the rest of the inland portions, and the upper 50s to lower 60s along the coast. On Tuesday, isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast, with the higher PoPs focused over areas in and around Matagorda Bay - closest to the influence of the coastal trough. Temperatures will be warmer with highs rising into the lower and mid 70s on Tuesday and generally between the mid 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday night for much of the inland portions. Rain chances persist on Tuesday night as another mid level disturbance moves overhead. Although we could expected additional showers and isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday, the chances are lower as the coastal trough begins to move southeastward just before moving into the Upper Texas Coast. The best chance for rain will continue to be over areas south of I-10, closest to the trough and where the higher moisture amounts reside. Conditions will warm up a little further on Wednesday, as warm moist air from the Gulf converges over Southeast Texas. Look for highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s areawide. There is a signal for a weak front (possibly a backdoor front) moving through sometime Wednesday night or early Thursday along with drier air pushing in from the north and northeast in its wake. Not a whole lot of "cooling" happening on the forecast behind this front other than cooler nights. The highs over the second half of the week remain in the mid to upper 70s but the overnight lows will drop back down into the upper 40s to mid 50s inland for Thursday and Friday night. Rain chances could return sometime late Saturday and Sunday as moisture returns to the area ahead of another mid level trough and surface coastal trough. Cotto && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1134 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Isol showers continue to move across the region from west to east, mainly south of I-10. These are anticipated to last through the afternoon. The strongest convection is anticipated to remain out offshore; therefore, TS remains out of TAFs for today. Outside of any -SHRA, VFR persists today with LGT and VRB winds. The next round of showers are anticipated to cross the region later this evening into early Wednesday, bringing an an increasing chance of TS. TS currently remains out of the PROB30 due to conflicting guidance, but will be monitored as the TAF cycles continue. MVFR-IFR CIGS/VIS are conducive becoming the main flight impacts overnight into Wednesday. After showers taper off, VFR returns with LGT and VRB winds. CMW && .MARINE... Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 Light to moderate east to northeast winds and seas of 1-3 feet are expected through Wednesday. Winds over Matagorda Bay and adjacent waters have been mostly between 15-20 kts with higher gusts. Caution Flags are now in effect for that region through Wednesday afternoon. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue through at least late Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to move through late Wednesday night or early Tuesday morning, leading to moderate offshore winds and elevated seas of up to 5 feet on Thursday. Caution flags will likely be needed. Winds relax and seas subside Thursday night into Friday. East to southeast winds return during the upcoming weekend along with increasing rain chances ahead of another cold frontal passage. Cotto && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 57 79 56 77 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 61 79 61 79 / 20 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 67 75 65 76 / 40 20 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 2 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ330-350-370. && $$ |
| #1285163 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:39 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1138 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1135 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 - Rain is expected to overall decrease this evening into tomorrow but there is a low (20-30%) chance of some spotty showers. - Temperatures will be cool today and tomorrow due to low clouds and northwesterly winds. - Conditions should dry out for the middle and end of this week, but a weak cold front will increase rain chances (20-30%) for this upcoming Saturday and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1135 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Conditions should continue to dry out through the afternoon into this evening as the heaviest convection moves offshore and high pressure from Northern Mexico moves toward the area, stabilizing the atmosphere. Due to lingering surface coastal troughing (which is expected to dissipate over the next couple of days), there could still be a shower or two tonight into tomorrow, especially near the coast. Chances remain low through, near 20 to 30%. By Thursday, Deep South Texas should be rain-free and remain so until Saturday. A weak cold front is expected this weekend, which will bring low (20 to 30%) rain chances back to all of Deep South Texas for Saturday. These will continue overnight into Sunday. Lingering low rain chances will continue along the immediate coast for early next week as well. Temperatures are expected to be unseasonably cool this afternoon and tomorrow. NBM guidance has trended warmer than actual observed temperatures over the region, with northwesterly flow and lingering cloud cover keeping observed temperatures cooler. Highs are expected to be in the upper 60s/lower 70s this afternoon. Depending on how quickly cloud cover dissipates and the strength of the northwesterly flow, highs could reach the upper 70s/low 80s tomorrow. However, if cloud cover lingers and northwesterly flow remains strong over Deep South Texas then tomorrow`s highs could only reach the lower 70s instead. Temperatures are then expected to gradually warm to seasonal levels in the low 80s and remain in the low 80s/upper 70s through early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Low cloud ceilings with LIFR and IFR conditions are expected over the next several hours with light to moderate northwesterly winds. Conditions are expected to stay IFR for the majority of the TAF period as low cloud cover is expected to remain. Conditions may improve to MVFR tomorrow at MFE tomorrow morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1135 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Overall favorable conditions are expected the rest of the week with low to moderate winds and seas. Conditions should deteriorate this weekend as another cold front approaches the area, increasing both the winds and the wave heights. Small Craft Exercise Caution and/or Small Craft Advisories may be needed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 68 79 68 79 / 10 10 10 10 HARLINGEN 65 78 65 80 / 20 10 10 0 MCALLEN 67 80 68 81 / 20 10 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 63 79 64 81 / 10 10 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 71 76 71 75 / 30 20 20 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 66 78 66 77 / 20 20 20 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285162 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:34 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1221 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence in appreciable rainfall late this week continues to decrease. Meanwhile, confidence in the first widespread sub- freezing nights of the season this weekend continues to increase. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry and seasonably mild through mid-week. 2) A strong cold front brings chances for showers Thursday-Friday, but any potential for appreciable rain is low. Much cooler temperatures follow behind the front with below freezing temperatures likely inland. && .DISCUSSION... As of 1220 PM EST Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonably mild through mid-week. Temperatures as of 12 PM have warmed into the mid-upper 60s for most of the area. Afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s are expected under clear skies with a light SW wind. Not as cold tonight with lows in the low-mid 40s for most. Another seasonably mild day is on the way for Wednesday with sky cover and temperatures very similar to today. However, unlike today, clouds will likely gradually increase in coverage late in the day as low pressure begins to take shape well NW of the region. KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings chances for showers Thursday-Friday, but any potential for appreciable rain is low. Much cooler temperatures follow behind the front with below freezing temperatures likely inland. A big change remains on the horizon as we approach late week. A shortwave trough is forecast to dive southward out of the north- central CONUS Wednesday, with a larger longwave trough and embedded upper low setting up shop over most of the eastern CONUS by Thursday and Friday. While isolated to scattered showers are possible Thursday and Friday, confidence is decreasing. PoPs have lowered to 25-40% along and north of I-64 and less than 25% south of I-64 on Thursday and 15-20% only across the Eastern Shore on Friday. The 12z GEFS only has a 20-40% chance for greater than 0.1" of rain with negligible probs for greater than 0.5" of rain. Meanwhile, the 6z EPS is similar with generally a 30-50% chance for greater than 0.1" of rain and negligible probs for greater than 0.5". As such, the main focus will be the much cooler temperatures that overspread the area behind the associated frontal passage as the anomalously strong trough moves into the region. Thursday looks to be the last mild day for a while with pre-frontal highs in the mid-upper 60s for most and around 70F SE. A series of cold fronts then crosses the local area Thursday evening and overnight, bringing much cooler temps by Friday. At this time, forecast highs Friday are only in the 50s. The large upper trough remains parked over most of the eastern CONUS Saturday, and this still looks like the coolest day of the period. Highs Sat are only expected to reach the lower 50s for most of the area with upper 40s possible across the far northern portions of the area (especially the lower MD Eastern Shore). These cool temps continue into early next week. Overnight lows will also be much cooler with lows in the upper 20s to around freezing for most locations away from the coast Friday, Saturday, and Sunday nights. Subfreezing temperatures may continue (for lows) Monday and Tuesday nights as well. As such, the growing season looks to be ending shortly for most areas. Will likely need a Freeze Watch as we get closer to the weekend. Gusty NW winds could make these temps feel even chillier. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1145 AM EST Tuesday... VFR conditions prevail through the 18z TAF period with mostly clear skies. SW winds of 5-10 kt this afternoon become light and variable tonight into early Wed. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue through the middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the west Thursday, with showers possible by Thursday, potentially lingering into Friday. Some short- lived sub-VFR conditions are possible with the frontal passage, along with some gusty NW winds and markedly cooler conditions behind the front for Friday and the weekend. && .MARINE... As of 310 AM EST Tuesday... Key Messages: - Benign marine conditions prevail through Thursday. - An extended period of strong NW winds and elevated seas are likely Friday into the weekend. However, confidence with respect to the strength of the wind and exact timing remains low. High pressure is centered over southern VA and Carolina coastal plain early this morning. The wind is less than 10kt, out of the NW across the northern tier of the local marine area, and out of the NE across the southern tier of the area. Seas range from 2-3ft in the coastal waters, to 3-4ft in the offshore waters, with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. High pressure prevails across the region through Wednesday, before moving offshore Wednesday night into Thursday. Sub- SCA conditions are expected during this timeframe. There is a weak dry cold front that crosses the coast tonight. The wind becomes WSW today and increases to 10-15kt across the Ches. Bay and ocean ahead of this boundary this aftn and early evening, before becoming N ~10kt, then NE 5-10kt behind the front later tonight into early Wednesday morning. High pressure becomes centered in vicinity of the northern Delmarva Wednesday with the wind becoming light and variable across the northern tier of the marine area, and ENE 5-10kt across the southern tier of the area. The wind then becomes SE 5- 10kt Wednesday night and then S followed by SW Thursday and increasing to 10-15kt as the high moves farther offshore and as a cold front approaches from the NW. Seas remain to 2-3ft nearshore and 3-4ft offshore today, and then 2-3ft for most of the local Atlantic zones through midweek. Waves in the Ches. Bay will be 1 to occasionally 2ft Tuesday through midweek. Low pressure and a strong cold front push across the coast and offshore Thursday night into Friday, with an extended period of CAA into the weekend. This should allow for decent mixing as a colder airmass overspreads relatively warmer SSTs. 00z/10 EPS probs for wind gusts at or above 34kt increase to generally 30-60% later Friday into early Saturday, and then to >60% Saturday aftn/evening. Meanwhile, the 00z/10 GEFS probs are negligible. Local wind probs for wind gusts at or in excess of 34kt are on average ~20% for the Ches. Bay Friday night through Saturday evening, 20-50% for the coastal waters, and 40-60% for the offshore waters. Taking a more traditional analysis, the 00z/10 ECMWF/GFS/CMC have 925mb wind speeds reaching a max of ~30kt a few hours either side of 00z Sunday (7PM Saturday). This also occurs as 925mb temperatures dive to ~0C along with pressure rises of +4-6mb/6hr, which could help boost the wind a few knots higher into gale criteria. Combining this with the probabilistic guidance, the scenario (at least as of this cycle) favors an extended period of SCA conditions Friday into the weekend, with a period of gale force gusts possible later Saturday/Saturday evening as the coldest air aloft arrives. However, it is still far enough in advance that confidence in exact details remains low. Seas potentially build to 5-7ft in the coastal waters and 7-9ft beyond 20nm, with 3-5ft waves in the Ches. Bay. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285161 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:33 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1219 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1217 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers will remain possible through the middle of the week. Some thunderstorm development will also be possible on Wednesday afternoon. An isolated strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out mainly across the Lake Okeechobee region during this time frame. - A strong cold front will push through the region on Thursday night into Friday morning. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible out ahead of the front. - Behind the front, much cooler and drier air will push into the region for the upcoming weekend along with breezy conditions as high pressure builds in from the north. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 200 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Weak mid level ridging will gradually move eastward today in response to a fast moving shortwave which will move towards the lower Mississippi Valley tonight before moving across the Northern Gulf coast and into Northern Florida as Wednesday progresses. At the surface, high pressure will gradually push into the western Atlantic today and it will continue to pull further away from the region tonight into Wednesday. While plenty of drier air will remain in tact across the mid to upper levels of the atmospheric column, lower level moisture will continue to filter in over the region as a light east to southeasterly surface wind flow continues today. This will help to keep PWATs generally between 1.4 and 1.6 inches area wide today with most of this moisture residing in the lower portion of the column. While most of the region will remain dry today, this lower level moisture will be just enough to have the potential to spark off some isolated shower activity mainly due sea breeze interactions later in the afternoon. Any shower that does develop today will be low topped, however, a brief heavy downpour cannot be entirely ruled out with any stronger shower that is able to take advantage of additional forcing from mesoscale boundary collisions. High temperatures today will generally range from the lower to mid 80s along the east coast and Lake Okeechobee region to the upper 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida. The aforementioned shortwave that will be pushing across the Northern Gulf coast and into Northern Florida on Wednesday will stay well off to the north, however, it will help to shift the mid level wind flow to more of a southwesterly direction. At the same time, it will help to introduce some cooler air aloft (500mb temps of -8 to -10C) over the region which will help to create some steeper lapse rates especially up towards the Lake Okeechobee region which will be closer to the shortwave. As the surface high pulls further away, winds at the surface will remain rather light, however, the synoptic flow will gradually veer to more of a southerly direction as the day progresses. As deeper layer moisture advects into the region, this could create the opportunity for higher chances of shower and thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening hours. With a southwesterly steering flow in place, afternoon convection will favor the interior/Lake Okeechobee region as well as portions of the east coast metro areas. The main forcing mechanism for initial convective development will still be the sea breeze boundary collisions. While strong thunderstorm development chances will still remain on the lower end, with the colder air aloft and the additional instability in place some isolated strong thunderstorm activity cannot be ruled out especially where mesoscale boundary interactions take place. The stronger storms would be capable of producing gusty winds, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and heavy downpours. The best chances of stronger thunderstorm activity on Wednesday would tend to favor the Lake Okeechobee region as that is where the colder temperatures will be aloft closer to the actual shortwave. High temperatures on Wednesday will generally rise into the lower to mid 80s, however, upper 80s are possible over Southwest Florida mainly south of Alligator Alley. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 200 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 The weather pattern starts to change heading into Thursday and Friday as a series of strong mid level shortwaves push across the Midwest Wednesday night and then into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast for Thursday and Friday. Mid level troughing will extend well down to the south into the Gulf and over the Southeastern part of the county as well as the Florida Peninsula during this time frame. At the surface, an area of low pressure will dive across the Midwest and into the Mid Atlantic states on Thursday before gradually pushing off the New England Coastline Thursday night into Friday. The cold front associated with this intensifying system will extend southwestward through the Southeastern States on Thursday and then across the Florida Peninsula Thursday night into Friday. Out ahead of this frontal boundary, the pressure gradient will increase across South Florida on Thursday as winds veer to a southwesterly direction. This could create breezy and gusty conditions across the area during this time frame. The latest guidance trends seems to be leaning towards a faster frontal passage across the region which would occur later Thursday night into early Friday morning. With guidance trending towards the faster and more progressive solution, shower activity will be more scattered in nature out ahead of the front from Thursday into early Friday morning. This also would suggest chances for thunderstorm development will remain rather low as the best dynamics and instability associated with the system will be located well off to the northeast of the region. High temperatures on Thursday will generally range from around 80 across the Lake Okeechobee region to the lower to mid 80s further to the south. Behind the front, winds will gradually shift and increase out of the northwest across the region for the rest of Friday. This will allow for strong cold and dry air advection to take place especially heading into Friday afternoon as strong high pressure begins to build in from the north. This area of high pressure will keep dry conditions in place through the upcoming weekend and it will usher in the coolest airmass of the fall season so far. Cold air advection will continue to take place through the first part of the weekend before winds start to shift and become more northeasterly on Sunday. Before the northeasterly wind shift, low temperatures could drop into the 50s across most areas on Friday night into Saturday morning, and then again on Saturday night into Sunday morning. High temperatures on Saturday may only reach the upper 60s along and north of Alligator Alley due to the strong cold air advection while areas south of Alligator Alley see high temperatures in the lower 70s during this time frame. High temperatures on Sunday will start to moderate as the winds become northeasterly and cold air advection comes to an end. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. ESE winds at 8-10 kts are expected at all east coast sites this afternoon. At KAPF, a westerly Gulf breeze will occur at 8-10 kts this afternoon. Winds become L/V again overnight after 23-00Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 200 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 A gentle to moderate easterly breeze will gradually shift and become more southerly heading towards the middle of the week. Isolated to scattered showers will remain possible today, however, chances of showers and thunderstorms will start to increase on Wednesday especially across the Atlantic waters. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less through the middle of the week. A strong cold front will gradually approach the local waters on Thursday before pushing through the region during the end of the week. Behind the front, hazardous marine conditions may develop across the Atlantic and Gulf waters for the end of the week as winds and seas increase. && .BEACHES... Issued at 200 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 74 85 72 83 / 10 40 10 30 West Kendall 73 85 72 84 / 10 30 10 30 Opa-Locka 73 86 71 84 / 10 40 20 30 Homestead 74 85 72 84 / 10 20 10 30 Fort Lauderdale 73 84 71 82 / 10 40 20 30 N Ft Lauderdale 73 84 71 82 / 10 30 20 20 Pembroke Pines 72 86 71 84 / 10 40 20 30 West Palm Beach 72 84 70 81 / 10 40 20 20 Boca Raton 73 84 70 81 / 10 30 20 20 Naples 72 84 72 81 / 10 10 40 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285160 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:33 PM 10.Nov.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1123 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1117 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 - A strong cold front pushes through the area on Thursday, bringing much cooler temperatures. Marine winds will strengthen behind the front along with building seas. - A light freeze is possible well inland late Friday night and Saturday night, roughly along and north of Highway 84. && .UPDATE... Issued at 541 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Another quiet morning overall. GOES-16 night products and proximity model soundings indicate a rather thick (multi-layer) deck of mid to upper-level clouds in place ranging from 650mb to 300mb, which obs and trends actually shows a steady warming trend due to insolation. Patchy clouds will continue as we roll past daybreak into the morning and afternoon hours as the same broad/weak shortwave over Texas continues to pump mid to upper tropospheric moisture across Mexico across the coastal SE US. Only continued adjustment was to knock down dewpoints in the afternoon following PBL mixing nearing the NBM10th percentile. Otherwise, a nice day ahead again! KLG && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 A weakening upper low over Texas breaks down to an open wave then is absorbed into a rather large upper trof that evolves over the eastern half of the CONUS Wednesday into Thursday. This latter feature will bring a strong cold front through the forecast area mainly from Thursday morning into the early afternoon. A gradual warming trend continues ahead of the approaching front along with improving deep layer moisture, sufficient to allow for isolated to scattered convection to develop over the southern portion of the area on Wednesday. Lows tonight range from the lower 40s well inland to near 50 at the coast then trend by Wednesday night to range from the lower 50s inland to near 60 at the coast. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 70s. The cold front ushers in much cooler and drier air, with lows by Friday night ranging from the lower 30s well inland to the lower 40s at the immediate coast. Lows Saturday night will be similar. This continues to look to have the potential to bring the first light freeze of the season to the northern portion of the area Friday night and Saturday night, roughly along and north of Highway 84. NBM probabilities for dropping below 32F are about 20-60% in this portion Friday night and 20-70% Saturday night, with the highest potential generally over northern Choctaw and northern Wilcox counties. Highs on Friday will be mostly in the lower to mid 60s, then highs on Saturday will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Temperatures begin to moderate on Sunday, with highs in the lower to mid 60s along with lows Sunday night ranging from the mid/upper 30s well inland to around 50 at the coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Wednesday with a moderate risk for Thursday. A low risk follows for Friday. /29 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1117 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 VFR conditions along with light winds are expected this afternoon into tonight. An upper system passing over the northern Gulf coast later tonight though Saturday will bring rain showers to the southern half of the forecast area starting around sunrise over southwestern portions of the forecast to just after noontime over the southeastern portions of the forecast area. Winds in the morning are expected to be northwesterly 5 to 10 knots. /16 && .MARINE... Issued at 131 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 High pressure over the area will continue to promote light winds and calm waves/seas through Wednesday. Winds increase out of the west late Wednesday into early Thursday ahead of an approaching strong cold front, expected to pass the area Thursday morning. This will lead to an increase in offshore moderate to strong flow Thursday and Friday. Expect small craft advisory conditions in this time frame with winds 20-25kts and gusts to 30kts. Waves/seas respond reaching 1-2ft for protected waters, 2-3ft for nearshore Gulf zones and 3-5 ft for outer Gulf zones. Winds and wave/seas taper going into next weekend. KLG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 78 55 75 58 / 0 10 30 0 Pensacola 75 59 74 61 / 0 0 20 0 Destin 75 60 73 63 / 10 0 20 0 Evergreen 77 50 72 53 / 0 10 20 0 Waynesboro 78 50 77 53 / 0 0 10 0 Camden 75 48 72 54 / 0 0 10 0 Crestview 78 50 73 54 / 0 0 30 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285159 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:52 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1145 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The aviation discussion has been updated. Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry and seasonably mild through mid- week. 2) A strong cold front brings chances for rain Thursday-Friday, but any potential for appreciable rain is low. Much cooler temperatures follow behind the front. && .DISCUSSION... As of 905 AM EST Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonably mild through mid- week. Temps as of 9 AM have warmed into the low-mid 50s for most of the area. Mild weather is expected today with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s under clear skies with a light SW wind. Not as cold tonight with lows in the 40s for most. Another seasonably mild day is on the way for Wednesday with sky cover and temperatures very similar to today. Could see some increase in clouds late in the day as low pressure begins to take shape well NW of the region. KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings chances for rain Thursday- Friday, but any potential for appreciable rain is low. Much cooler temperatures follow behind the front. A big change remains on the horizon as we approach late week. A shortwave trough is forecast to dive southward out of the north- central CONUS Wednesday, with a larger longwave trough and embedded upper low setting up shop over most of the eastern CONUS by Thursday and Friday. While some precip is possible Thursday and Friday, the main focus will be the much cooler temperatures that overspread the area behind the associated frontal passage. Thursday looks to be the last "mild" day for a while with pre-frontal high temps in the mid 60s NW to lower 70s SE. A series of cold fronts then crosses the local area Thursday evening and overnight, bringing those much cooler temps by Friday. At this time, forecast highs Friday are only in the 50s, with lower 50s for the northern and northwest tier of our CWA (mainly N and NW of a Farmville- Richmond- Salisbury line). The large upper trough remains parked over most of the eastern CONUS Saturday and this still looks like the coolest day of the period: highs only in the lower 50s for the entire area and even some potential for upper 40s across the N and especially the lower MD Eastern Shore. Some semblance of troughing remains in place Sunday, so those cool temps are expected to persist. Overnight lows also dip to around freezing for most locations away from the coast, with even some upper 20s possible in the Piedmont. Gusty winds could make these temps feel even chillier. A very gradual moderating trend is possible starting early next week. Regarding the precip potential Thursday-Friday, the synoptic pattern is not very favorable for appreciable rainfall. The sfc low passes W to E through the northern Mid-Atlantic Thursday, with the main trough axis lagging well behind these sfc features. The overall moisture also appears limited with the westerly flow aloft. Still, at least some light rain or showers are expected later Thursday into Friday, particularly N of the I-64 corridor and especially on the lower MD Eastern Shore. Expected/forecast QPF is only on the order of a tenth or two per the latest NBM and ensemble guidance, and even these amounts could be on the generous side. Probs for a half inch of QPF have cratered to <5-10%, so any sort of beneficial rain is unlikely at this point. Conditions dry out for the weekend, though those aforementioned gusty (NW) winds are likely to persist in the Friday-Sunday timeframe as the pressure gradient remains compressed over the area. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1145 AM EST Tuesday... VFR conditions prevail through the 18z TAF period with mostly clear skies. SW winds of 5-10 kt this afternoon become light and variable tonight into early Wed. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue through the middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the west Thursday, with showers possible by Thursday, potentially lingering into Friday. Some short- lived sub-VFR conditions are possible with the frontal passage, along with some gusty NW winds and markedly cooler conditions behind the front for Friday and the weekend. && .MARINE... As of 310 AM EST Tuesday... Key Messages: - Benign marine conditions prevail through Thursday. - An extended period of strong NW winds and elevated seas are likely Friday into the weekend. However, confidence with respect to the strength of the wind and exact timing remains low. High pressure is centered over southern VA and Carolina coastal plain early this morning. The wind is less than 10kt, out of the NW across the northern tier of the local marine area, and out of the NE across the southern tier of the area. Seas range from 2-3ft in the coastal waters, to 3-4ft in the offshore waters, with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. High pressure prevails across the region through Wednesday, before moving offshore Wednesday night into Thursday. Sub- SCA conditions are expected during this timeframe. There is a weak dry cold front that crosses the coast tonight. The wind becomes WSW today and increases to 10-15kt across the Ches. Bay and ocean ahead of this boundary this aftn and early evening, before becoming N ~10kt, then NE 5-10kt behind the front later tonight into early Wednesday morning. High pressure becomes centered in vicinity of the northern Delmarva Wednesday with the wind becoming light and variable across the northern tier of the marine area, and ENE 5-10kt across the southern tier of the area. The wind then becomes SE 5- 10kt Wednesday night and then S followed by SW Thursday and increasing to 10-15kt as the high moves farther offshore and as a cold front approaches from the NW. Seas remain to 2-3ft nearshore and 3-4ft offshore today, and then 2-3ft for most of the local Atlantic zones through midweek. Waves in the Ches. Bay will be 1 to occasionally 2ft Tuesday through midweek. Low pressure and a strong cold front push across the coast and offshore Thursday night into Friday, with an extended period of CAA into the weekend. This should allow for decent mixing as a colder airmass overspreads relatively warmer SSTs. 00z/10 EPS probs for wind gusts at or above 34kt increase to generally 30-60% later Friday into early Saturday, and then to >60% Saturday aftn/evening. Meanwhile, the 00z/10 GEFS probs are negligible. Local wind probs for wind gusts at or in excess of 34kt are on average ~20% for the Ches. Bay Friday night through Saturday evening, 20-50% for the coastal waters, and 40-60% for the offshore waters. Taking a more traditional analysis, the 00z/10 ECMWF/GFS/CMC have 925mb wind speeds reaching a max of ~30kt a few hours either side of 00z Sunday (7PM Saturday). This also occurs as 925mb temperatures dive to ~0C along with pressure rises of +4-6mb/6hr, which could help boost the wind a few knots higher into gale criteria. Combining this with the probabilistic guidance, the scenario (at least as of this cycle) favors an extended period of SCA conditions Friday into the weekend, with a period of gale force gusts possible later Saturday/Saturday evening as the coldest air aloft arrives. However, it is still far enough in advance that confidence in exact details remains low. Seas potentially build to 5-7ft in the coastal waters and 7-9ft beyond 20nm, with 3-5ft waves in the Ches. Bay. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285158 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:48 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1146 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Minor coastal flooding will continue across the Upper Keys around the times of high tide, but high tides peaks will continue to trend downward. - Rain chances will near to below normal through mid week, with dewpoints remaining in the lower 70s. - The first strong cold front of the season will push through the Keys on Friday, with much cooler "sweater weather" possible in its wake through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1138 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 A beautiful, otherwise warm and slightly muggy, morning is unfolding along the Florida Keys. A few isolated pockets of showers were detected by our KBYX radar just prior to sunrise, but those have since moved away from our waters and have tapered off. Closer to the island chain, a rogue boundary moving westward had a couple of light showers associated with it a few hours ago, but this activity has also tapered off. The environment just doesn`t seem very conducive to showers and thunderstorms this morning. CIMSS vorticity analysis doesn`t highlight any particularly favorable cyclonic vorticity across our area, and lower level divergence points to an area in the southeastern Gulf that may be account for the activity that has tapered off. Visibile satellite imagery shows a few pockets of lower level fair weather cumulus clouds, which seems to coincide with the low level moisture from the 12Z KKEY sounding from this morning. The calculated PWAT was approximately 1.60", which is almost up to the 75th percentile for this date, but this was associated with a column of air that had higher PWAT values compared to the air mass currently moving into our forecast area. The morning sounding may have a PWAT value that isn`t very representative of what is currently outside. All of this is to say that our weather pattern is generally unremarkable, and no changes are needed with this morning update. The one talking point regarding the inherited forecast is that we are currently advertising a slight chance of rain, around 10%R< but this was more representative of the early morning hours. In reality, that 10% is likely much closer to near nil. && .MARINE... Issued at 1138 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, a robust high pressure system over the Southeast United States will begin shifting out across the Atlantic today and gradually settle northeast of the Bahamas by Wednesday. This will allow for east to southeast breezes to undergo a slow slackening process through Wednesday night. Thereafter, a strong cold front will steadily march towards the Keys and is expected push through the Keys marine zones on Friday morning. As a result breezes will gradually clock around the compass and freshen Thursday through Friday morning. A period of fresh to strong breezes is possible Friday night into Saturday morning before briefly slackening. A reinforcing front on Sunday will bring back the potential for a prolonged period of fresh to strong breezes. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the TAF period. High pressure draped across the area will maintain east to occasionally southeasterly surface winds near 10 knots with minimal crosswind concerns. Both terminals should remain dry, but some very low level moisture may encourage a light shower or two at some point, but opting to keep the TAFs dry due to the combination of low rain probability and low chances of any impacts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 85 77 85 76 / 10 20 30 30 Marathon 85 78 85 77 / 10 10 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285157 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1033 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches Today. - Strong Cold Front Passage Late Thursday. Small Craft Advisory Conditions Likely from Thursday Afternoon through at least Saturday Morning. - Inland Frost Possible Across Inland Portions of Southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley Early on Sunday Morning. && .UPDATE... Late morning surface analysis depicts high pressure (1022 millibars) sprawling across the southeastern states and the lower Mississippi Valley. Aloft...zonal flow prevails across the Deep South, downstream of a cutoff trough spinning over northern and western Texas. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a seasonably dry air mass remains entrenched across our area, with PWATs generally ranging from 0.5 to 0.75 inches, except around 1 inch across portions of north central FL. Fair skies prevail across our region, with mostly thin high altitude cloud cover traversing our area from west to east. Following a seasonably cool start to the day, temperatures at 15Z have already rebounded to the 65-70 degree range at most locations, with dewpoints ranging from the mid 40s across portions of inland southeast GA to the lower 60s for portions of north central and coastal northeast FL. High altitude cloudiness will increase this afternoon from west to east as the aforementioned cutoff trough over northern and western TX dislodges and begins progressing eastward across as a shortwave trough tonight. Otherwise, filtered sunshine and a dry air mass will allow temperatures to climb to the 75-80 degree range this afternoon, except lower 80s across north central FL. These values are about 5 degrees above mid-November climatology. Increasing mid and high altitude cloudiness overnight should prevent dense fog formation across our area, with light winds allowing lows to fall to the low and mid 50s for most of southeast GA and Suwannee Valley, ranging to the low and mid 60s for portions of north central and coastal northeast FL. These values are near to slightly above mid-November climatology. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Breezy Westerly Winds on Thursday. High pressure weakens over the SE US as a cold front moves through the Plains and into the SE US by Thursday. Flow shifts to WSW ahead of the front ushering in some moisture and increasing PWATs to the 1- 1.5 inch range. A mid-upper shortwave trough moves through the region Wednesday afternoon into evening triggering a few showers mainly along the I-10 corridor. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions prevail as highs continue to top out in the upper 70s to low 80s with mild lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Breezy westerly winds develop on Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Drier air builds back in ahead of the front lowering PWATs to below an inch allowing for a dry frontal passage. Around seasonable highs in the 70s on Thursday quickly drop Thursday night as the front shifts south into central FL. Cold and breezy NW winds develop in the wake of the front with lows Friday morning in the 40s across SE GA and Suwannee Valley to the low-mid 50s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Much cooler & drier Friday through Sunday. - Inland Frost Potential Southeast GA/Suwannee Valley Sunday Morning. Breezy and cold northwest winds continue Friday in the wake of the front draped across central FL. Friday highs will only top out in the 60s. On Friday night, another dry cold front slides offshore of the southeast Atlantic coast reinforcing the cold airmass and keeping winds elevated. This will lead to wind chills dropping into the 30s Saturday morning for much of the area. Winds begin to relax Saturday into Sunday as surface high pressure builds in from the northwest with dry weather and below average highs in the 60s for most with possibly some upper 50s for locations northwest of Waycross. Saturday will likely be the coolest day of the year since mid-March last spring. With calm winds and mostly clear skies, overnight lows fall into the mid/upper 30s for inland locations north of Interstate 10 Sunday morning, with 40s elsewhere. Sunday morning could be the first inland frost of the season for much of inland southeast GA and Suwannee Valley. Temperatures gradually warm into early next week as high pressure builds south into the Great Lakes region and flow shifts to ESE. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals today, with light westerly surface winds around 5 knots along with a gradual increase in high cloud cover. Winds decrease to near calm again after sunset this evening with a further increase and thickening of mid and high clouds through the overnight hours. This increase in cloud cover will lower fog chances late in the TAF period and will leave out of the forecast for now. && .MARINE... High pressure positioned over our region this morning will weaken and shift northeastward this afternoon as a disturbance aloft progresses eastward towards the southeastern states. This system may produce widely scattered showers as it moves across our local waters on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will push southward from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday, with breezy west southwesterly winds developing after midnight on Wednesday night ahead of this front. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to develop on Thursday afternoon and evening as westerly winds strengthen just ahead of the frontal passage, followed by an extended period of strong northwesterly winds beginning after midnight on Thursday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to continue through at least Saturday morning across our local waters. High pressure will then build over the Tennessee Valley on Saturday, with winds shifting to northerly on Saturday night and Sunday, allowing seas to gradually subside. Rip Currents: Light winds and decreasing swells will lead to mainly Moderate Risk of Rips at both NE FL/SE GA beaches Today and Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... - High Daytime Dispersions Possible Thursday And Friday. Dry conditions and light westerly winds persist through midweek, with Poor to Fair daytime dispersions. The dry airmass will continue to bring min RHs down to the upper 20s to 30s for southeast Georgia. The arrival of a cold front on Thursday will bring breezy conditions across a good portion of the area, which will allow for very good to high dispersions to develop. Behind the front, a colder, drier airmass will begin to build into the area, with temperatures likely dipping down to the mid to upper 30s across southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley Region Friday and Saturday Night. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Frost is possible early on Sunday morning across inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 80 50 76 54 / 10 10 10 0 SSI 76 57 77 58 / 10 10 10 0 JAX 81 55 79 56 / 10 10 20 0 SGJ 79 61 78 60 / 10 10 20 0 GNV 82 59 80 57 / 10 10 20 0 OCF 82 61 81 59 / 10 10 10 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285156 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:22 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 904 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Frost Advisory has been allowed to expire. Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry and seasonably mild through mid- week. 2) A strong cold front brings chances for rain Thursday-Friday, but any potential for appreciable rain is low. Much cooler temperatures follow behind the front. && .DISCUSSION... As of 905 AM EST Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonably mild through mid- week. Temps as of 9 AM have warmed into the low-mid 50s for most of the area. Mild weather is expected today with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s under clear skies with a light SW wind. Not as cold tonight with lows in the 40s for most. Another seasonably mild day is on the way for Wednesday with sky cover and temperatures very similar to today. Could see some increase in clouds late in the day as low pressure begins to take shape well NW of the region. KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings chances for rain Thursday- Friday, but any potential for appreciable rain is low. Much cooler temperatures follow behind the front. A big change remains on the horizon as we approach late week. A shortwave trough is forecast to dive southward out of the north- central CONUS Wednesday, with a larger longwave trough and embedded upper low setting up shop over most of the eastern CONUS by Thursday and Friday. While some precip is possible Thursday and Friday, the main focus will be the much cooler temperatures that overspread the area behind the associated frontal passage. Thursday looks to be the last "mild" day for a while with pre-frontal high temps in the mid 60s NW to lower 70s SE. A series of cold fronts then crosses the local area Thursday evening and overnight, bringing those much cooler temps by Friday. At this time, forecast highs Friday are only in the 50s, with lower 50s for the northern and northwest tier of our CWA (mainly N and NW of a Farmville- Richmond- Salisbury line). The large upper trough remains parked over most of the eastern CONUS Saturday and this still looks like the coolest day of the period: highs only in the lower 50s for the entire area and even some potential for upper 40s across the N and especially the lower MD Eastern Shore. Some semblance of troughing remains in place Sunday, so those cool temps are expected to persist. Overnight lows also dip to around freezing for most locations away from the coast, with even some upper 20s possible in the Piedmont. Gusty winds could make these temps feel even chillier. A very gradual moderating trend is possible starting early next week. Regarding the precip potential Thursday-Friday, the synoptic pattern is not very favorable for appreciable rainfall. The sfc low passes W to E through the northern Mid-Atlantic Thursday, with the main trough axis lagging well behind these sfc features. The overall moisture also appears limited with the westerly flow aloft. Still, at least some light rain or showers are expected later Thursday into Friday, particularly N of the I-64 corridor and especially on the lower MD Eastern Shore. Expected/forecast QPF is only on the order of a tenth or two per the latest NBM and ensemble guidance, and even these amounts could be on the generous side. Probs for a half inch of QPF have cratered to <5-10%, so any sort of beneficial rain is unlikely at this point. Conditions dry out for the weekend, though those aforementioned gusty (NW) winds are likely to persist in the Friday-Sunday timeframe as the pressure gradient remains compressed over the area. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 620 AM EST Tuesday... VFR conditions prevail through the 12z/10 TAF period. Mostly sunny today with light and variable winds early becoming SW 5-10 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Light/calm winds return tonight. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue through the middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the west Thursday, with rain showers possible by later Thursday and Friday. Some short- lived sub-VFR conditions are possible with the frontal passage, along with some gusty NW winds and markedly cooler conditions behind the front for Friday and the weekend. && .MARINE... As of 310 AM EST Tuesday... Key Messages: - Benign marine conditions prevail through Thursday. - An extended period of strong NW winds and elevated seas are likely Friday into the weekend. However, confidence with respect to the strength of the wind and exact timing remains low. High pressure is centered over southern VA and Carolina coastal plain early this morning. The wind is less than 10kt, out of the NW across the northern tier of the local marine area, and out of the NE across the southern tier of the area. Seas range from 2-3ft in the coastal waters, to 3-4ft in the offshore waters, with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. High pressure prevails across the region through Wednesday, before moving offshore Wednesday night into Thursday. Sub- SCA conditions are expected during this timeframe. There is a weak dry cold front that crosses the coast tonight. The wind becomes WSW today and increases to 10-15kt across the Ches. Bay and ocean ahead of this boundary this aftn and early evening, before becoming N ~10kt, then NE 5-10kt behind the front later tonight into early Wednesday morning. High pressure becomes centered in vicinity of the northern Delmarva Wednesday with the wind becoming light and variable across the northern tier of the marine area, and ENE 5-10kt across the southern tier of the area. The wind then becomes SE 5- 10kt Wednesday night and then S followed by SW Thursday and increasing to 10-15kt as the high moves farther offshore and as a cold front approaches from the NW. Seas remain to 2-3ft nearshore and 3-4ft offshore today, and then 2-3ft for most of the local Atlantic zones through midweek. Waves in the Ches. Bay will be 1 to occasionally 2ft Tuesday through midweek. Low pressure and a strong cold front push across the coast and offshore Thursday night into Friday, with an extended period of CAA into the weekend. This should allow for decent mixing as a colder airmass overspreads relatively warmer SSTs. 00z/10 EPS probs for wind gusts at or above 34kt increase to generally 30-60% later Friday into early Saturday, and then to >60% Saturday aftn/evening. Meanwhile, the 00z/10 GEFS probs are negligible. Local wind probs for wind gusts at or in excess of 34kt are on average ~20% for the Ches. Bay Friday night through Saturday evening, 20-50% for the coastal waters, and 40-60% for the offshore waters. Taking a more traditional analysis, the 00z/10 ECMWF/GFS/CMC have 925mb wind speeds reaching a max of ~30kt a few hours either side of 00z Sunday (7PM Saturday). This also occurs as 925mb temperatures dive to ~0C along with pressure rises of +4-6mb/6hr, which could help boost the wind a few knots higher into gale criteria. Combining this with the probabilistic guidance, the scenario (at least as of this cycle) favors an extended period of SCA conditions Friday into the weekend, with a period of gale force gusts possible later Saturday/Saturday evening as the coldest air aloft arrives. However, it is still far enough in advance that confidence in exact details remains low. Seas potentially build to 5-7ft in the coastal waters and 7-9ft beyond 20nm, with 3-5ft waves in the Ches. Bay. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285155 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:21 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 816 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Near-normal temperatures through Thursday, turning colder Friday and over the weekend. - Little in the way of rain expected through the period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1244 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Significant changes to the U/L pattern over the next several days. Quasi-zonal flow currently across the CONUS will rapidly transition to a high amplitude pattern by the end of the week with a cut-off low near the Pacific northwest and another over the Great Lakes, with a sharp ridge between the two. Southern stream flow will undercut the overall flow across central Mexico, the southern Gulf, and south Florida. Over the weekend, both of the cut-offs will open up and lift out to the northeast allowing the southern stream flow to shift poleward establishing itself across the southern tier of the U.S. Early next week, the next strong upstream disturbance will dig over the western U.S. and induce downstream ridging through the Plains, with potentially a southern stream disturbance moving across the Florida peninsula, although confidence is currently low in the extended portion of the forecast. At the surface, weak high pressure over the western Atlantic will extend over the Florida peninsula with a weak gradient in place across the region today. A weak relatively dry frontal boundary will sink south across the area Tuesday night and will stall across the central Florida peninsula on Wednesday with only a slight chance of a shower. Overall, benign conditions through Thursday with periods of high cloudiness over the forecast area associated with the southern stream jet. Temperatures will run near climatic normals each day. As the U/L pattern amplifies late in the week, an associated cold front will push across west central and southwest Florida Thursday night and Friday with a slight chance of showers across the southern forecast area in region of best available moisture. Much colder drier air will advect over the forecast area in the wake of the front Friday and into the weekend with temperatures expected to be about 10 degrees below climatic normals. Potential Friday and Saturday night for some inland portions of the nature coast to drop into the upper 30s. As heights rise over the forecast area early next week and easterly flow off the Atlantic modifies the boundary layer, temperatures will recover rather quickly returning back near climatic normals. High cloudiness possible each day as jet cirrus associated with the southern stream advects over the region, and will have to monitor the potential for shower/thunderstorm activity associated with a southern stream disturbance that could move across the peninsula. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 815 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 VFR conditions through the period with winds generally below 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 1244 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Light winds and rather benign conditions are expected on the waters through Thursday. A cold front will push across the waters Thursday night and Friday with increasing north to northwest winds, but should remain below cautionary levels. Over the weekend, winds will shift to the east and northeast. Winds and seas may increase early next week ahead of an area of low pressure, however, confidence is low in the extended portion of the forecast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1244 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 83 70 82 68 / 0 0 0 10 FMY 86 71 85 70 / 10 10 20 30 GIF 85 69 85 65 / 0 10 10 10 SRQ 83 70 81 70 / 0 0 20 10 BKV 84 65 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 81 71 79 70 / 0 0 0 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1285154 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:36 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 621 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 612 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 - Dry air and ongoing drought conditions will elevate fire spread concerns through Tuesday, and again at the end of the week. Residents in areas under burn bans should not conduct outdoor burning of any kind. Residents in areas without official burn bans should take extra precautions if burning outdoors. - A strong cold front will move through the area Thursday bringing potential for frost and the first freeze of the season for some areas mainly Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Friday) Issued at 1121 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 Overall the remains quiet with no major impacts expected through the remainder of the work week. Even with a decent cold front expected later this week the forecast will remain generally dry and the main forecast problem is on temps, RH, and any fire weather concerns. The s/w spinning in north TX along with the mid lvl jet running across southern TX and along the entire Gulf coast has led to just enough lift to squeeze out whatever moisture is available in the mid and upper levels to lead to some sprinkles and mostly virga this evening. As this disturbance tries to lift out of TX and across the Lower Ms Valley later today and overnight it may once again try to squeeze out a few light showers but most likely sprinkles and virga. Once it merges with the northern stream system and soon to be deep east coast L/W trough we will quickly move under northwest flow. Another stronger s/w embedded in the L/W trough will quickly surge down the Plains Wednesday and into northern portions of the Lower MS Valley Wednesday evening. This disturbance will help to deepen the trough across the eastern CONUS while also ushering a strong cold front across the region early Thursday. This will be a dry front but it will bring with it much drier and colder air. Cold air advection will begin Thursday but it will be slow however, it will actually continue into Friday evening. Thursday will be cooler but Friday will be noticeably cooler with morning lows in the lower 40s to lower 50s across much of the area and then highs on Friday likely remaining in the 60s for a good chunk of the area. High pressure will build in at the surface especially as we head into Friday night. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Monday night) Issued at 1121 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 Forecast still looks chilly heading into the weekend and perhaps finally a better chance for some rain early next week. Medium range guidance is in rather good agreement and has strong support from their ensemble means. Unable to make adjustments to the extended forecast at this time so there will be no deviations from the 01z NBM however it as it is just not coming in with operational values in the upper 30s finally for a few locations. This is at least better than what it was advertising yesterday morning but is still likely too warm for Saturday and Sunday morning, later forecasts will be able to adjust the forecast for those morning. As we head into the weekend the highly amplified pattern over the CONUS will continue to dominate the country. We will have the L/W trough control the eastern half of the CONUS and another broader trough over the west coast with a highly amplified ridge pinched in- between the two over the Plains. This pattern won`t stay in place for long though as a s/w rounding the west coast trough will try to erode away at the ridge while the eastern CONUS trough broadens out some and slides east. Late in the weekend the ridge will be over the area extending north into Canada still. As the previous forecaster mentioned a lot will hinge on the erosion of the ridge and the ridges have actually been a little stubborn while the models have tended to break them down to fast than what has actually occurred. With that the ridge likely blocks the s/w from lifting northeast out of the four corners region and with the mid lvl jet max still downstream of the s/w it will likely try to work east or east- southeast across the southern Plains and close off. This disturbance then tries to break through the ridge early next week over the Lower MS Valley before merging with the northern stream. At the sfc high pressure will dominate the area through Sunday morning and that will likely help to setup two rather chilly mornings across the region. Saturday morning it will be centered just off to the north with light winds through the boundary layer. Very dry conditions and what looks to be clear skies should set the stage for an efficient radiation cooling night. Latest MOS values are suggesting mid 30s now in the typical cold spots. The NBM10 finally seems to be catching on and in those typical cold spots is actually showing lows down into the lower 30s in a few locations but like was mentioned earlier deterministic NBM is well warmer. Saturday night may be just as good from a radiational cooling stand point with high pressure still dominating the area, very dry air in place along with light winds. The biggest unknown is clouds and that could really depend on how firm the ridge aloft holds but at this time it looks like the cloud cover increase should hold off till later in the day as the upper jet finally starts to nose in midday/afternoon Sunday. There is finally the next best chance for rain Monday. This is associated with that s/w that tries to erode and break through the ridge. Moisture will try to return ahead of it and if the ridge can break down we should see decent coverage of light rain but if the ridge holds rain may be more contained over the southwest and along the SELA coast. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 VFR through this cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 1121 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 Benign conditions will persist through the middle of the week as the area remains under the southern periphery of a surface high. Early Thursday a strong cold front will enter the coastal waters and surge into the Gulf. Behind it strong northwest winds will quickly develop with hazardous conditions developing over the marine zones Thursday and likely persisting through Friday night. /CAB/ && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285153 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:09 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 551 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 541 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 - A strong cold front pushes through the area on Thursday, bringing much cooler temperatures. Marine winds will strengthen behind the front along with building seas. - A light freeze is possible well inland late Friday night and Saturday night, roughly along and north of Highway 84. && .UPDATE... Issued at 541 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Another quiet morning overall. GOES-16 night products and proximity model soundings indicate a rather thick (multi-layer) deck of mid to upper-level clouds in place ranging from 650mb to 300mb, which obs and trends actually shows a steady warming trend due to insolation. Patchy clouds will continue as we roll past daybreak into the morning and afternoon hours as the same broad/weak shortwave over Texas continues to pump mid to upper tropospheric moisture across Mexico across the coastal SE US. Only continued adjustment was to knock down dewpoints in the afternoon following PBL mixing nearing the NBM10th percentile. Otherwise, a nice day ahead again! KLG && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 A weakening upper low over Texas breaks down to an open wave then is absorbed into a rather large upper trof that evolves over the eastern half of the CONUS Wednesday into Thursday. This latter feature will bring a strong cold front through the forecast area mainly from Thursday morning into the early afternoon. A gradual warming trend continues ahead of the approaching front along with improving deep layer moisture, sufficient to allow for isolated to scattered convection to develop over the southern portion of the area on Wednesday. Lows tonight range from the lower 40s well inland to near 50 at the coast then trend by Wednesday night to range from the lower 50s inland to near 60 at the coast. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 70s. The cold front ushers in much cooler and drier air, with lows by Friday night ranging from the lower 30s well inland to the lower 40s at the immediate coast. Lows Saturday night will be similar. This continues to look to have the potential to bring the first light freeze of the season to the northern portion of the area Friday night and Saturday night, roughly along and north of Highway 84. NBM probabilities for dropping below 32F are about 20-60% in this portion Friday night and 20-70% Saturday night, with the highest potential generally over northern Choctaw and northern Wilcox counties. Highs on Friday will be mostly in the lower to mid 60s, then highs on Saturday will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Temperatures begin to moderate on Sunday, with highs in the lower to mid 60s along with lows Sunday night ranging from the mid/upper 30s well inland to around 50 at the coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Wednesday with a moderate risk for Thursday. A low risk follows for Friday. /29 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 541 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Expect VFR conditions for all area terminals through the TAF cycle. Only expecting periods of FEW to BKN at 150-250 throughout the day with calm/weak surface winds, turning calm tonight. KLG && .MARINE... Issued at 131 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 High pressure over the area will continue to promote light winds and calm waves/seas through Wednesday. Winds increase out of the west late Wednesday into early Thursday ahead of an approaching strong cold front, expected to pass the area Thursday morning. This will lead to an increase in offshore moderate to strong flow Thursday and Friday. Expect small craft advisory conditions in this time frame with winds 20-25kts and gusts to 30kts. Waves/seas respond reaching 1-2ft for protected waters, 2-3ft for nearshore Gulf zones and 3-5 ft for outer Gulf zones. Winds and wave/seas taper going into next weekend. KLG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 78 55 77 56 / 0 10 20 0 Pensacola 75 61 75 62 / 10 0 20 0 Destin 75 61 74 63 / 10 0 20 0 Evergreen 77 49 75 51 / 0 0 10 0 Waynesboro 78 51 78 53 / 0 0 10 0 Camden 75 49 74 53 / 0 0 10 0 Crestview 78 51 75 52 / 0 0 30 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285152 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:57 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 652 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Key Message 1 has been updated for fog trends this morning. The Aviation Section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected through Thursday. Colder conditions this weekend. - 2) Frost/freeze conditions are possible Friday night through Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected through Thursday. Colder conditions this weekend. Early Morning: High pressure prevails with light sfc winds in place under clear skies. Latest satellite imagery and sfc obs indicate shallow fog reducing vsbys to 1 mile spots in northern Charleston and Berkeley Counties, mainly in the Francis Marion Forest. Conditions are expected to improve quickly this morning as fog lifts/mixes out during the next hour or two. Today and Wednesday: High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across the Southeast United States, supporting dry conditions and above normal temperatures, despite an increase in mid- high clouds through mid-week. Highs should generally peak in the mid- upper 70s each afternoon, although should remain a few degrees cooler along the beaches. Low temps will be dependent on how much mid-high cloud remains across the local area during overnight periods. However, latest guidance suggests lows to trend slightly warmer tonight (upper 40s inland to mid-upper 50s near the coast) and Wednesday night (low 50s inland to upper 50s/around 60 near the coast) as a light southwesterly wind develops along the edge of high pressure becoming more centered offshore across the western Atlantic. Thursday: Aloft, a mid-upper trough over the Midwest will advance east across the Appalachians early, helping push a cold front toward the local area late day into the early overnight period. Ahead of the front, a breezy southwesterly wind is anticipated with gusts near 25-30 mph during peak heating hours. Afternoon highs will remain above normal for one last day this week, generally peaking in the mid-upper 70s. The front is anticipated to shift through the local area late day, then offshore during the evening, remaining mostly dry for all areas. However, h5 shortwave energy traversing across minimal low-lvl moisture could result in a few light showers as the front progresses across the region. At this time, a dry forecast is advertised. Strong cold air advection begins post fropa, leading to noticeably cooler lows in the low-mid 40s inland to around 50 at the beaches during predawn hours Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2: Frost/freeze conditions are possible Friday night through Sunday night. Friday: Cold air advection (CAA) behind the front begins, starting the trend of cooler temperatures into and throughout the weekend. After a cooler start to the day (lower 40s inland up into the lower 50s along the coast) temperatures look to max out in the lower to mid 60s across the region. In addition, breezy west-northwesterly winds gusting 20 to 25 mph will certainly make it feel like fall outside, so be sure to at least grab a jacket heading out on Friday. With the cold air continuing to funnel down into the region, Friday night into Saturday will be our first night where concerns for frost formation return to the area, though wind speeds continue to remain high enough to keep concerns on the lower end for now. A renewed push of cooler air on the leading edge of a surface high pressure, combined with light overnight winds and clear skies, will likely lead to strong radiational cooling setup into Sunday morning. This is expected to bring the highest chances for frost/freeze. Another chance for frost/freeze returns into Monday morning as cold temperatures linger. Nov 10 01z NBM 10km neighborhood probabilities for emergency management warming shelter planning: Friday Night/Saturday Morning: Inland Areas Coastal Corridor Temps 35 degrees or colder: 20-50% 5% Temps 32 degrees or colder: 5-20% <5% Temps 30 degrees or colder: <5% <5% Saturday Night/Sunday Morning: Inland Areas Coastal Corridor Temps 35 degrees or colder: 60-80% 10-40% Temps 32 degrees or colder: 30-50% <5% Temps 30 degrees or colder: 10-20% <5% Sunday Night/Monday Morning: Inland Areas Coastal Corridor Temps 35 degrees or colder: 20-40% 5-10% Temps 32 degrees or colder: 10-20% 5-10% Temps 30 degrees or colder: 5-20% <5% Frost Advisories, Freeze Watches and Freeze Warnings may eventually be needed, especially for areas roughly inland of US-17 in the Lowcountry and I-95 in Southeast Georgia. Detailed information on first freeze dates for the area can be found online at: https://www.weather.gov/media/chs/climate/AverageFirstLastFreezeDates.pdf && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 12Z Wednesday. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR during the daytime, with isolated to scattered visibility restrictions possible during the late overnight into early morning hours on both Tuesday and Wednesday. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: High pressure will dominate the weather pattern leading to rather quiet marine conditions. South/southwest winds up to 10-15 kt today should become more west tonight as high pressure is centered more offshore. Seas will range between 2-3 ft. Surface high pressure will continue across the Southeast U.S. through Wednesday, bringing a light to perhaps gentle breeze. Seas will be 2-3 ft within 20 nm and 3-4 ft for the 20-60 nm waters. Winds increase out of the southwest Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front, becoming gusty to near 30 knots. Likewise, wind-driven seas will build. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for our waters starting Thursday afternoon. Winds shift to become out of the west-northwest overnight into Friday, with a brief period of weakening winds during the morning/afternoon before wind speeds pick up again. Winds decrease below Small Craft Thresholds Saturday morning/afternoon, with the northwesterly winds ushering out the 6 feet waves around the same time. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285151 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:45 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 637 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Frost advisory continues overnight across the Coastal Plain. Aviation Disco updated for 12Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Frost concerns overnight and Tue morning. Gradual warm up with dry conditions through mid week. 2) Approaching storm system near the end of the week will bring well below normal temperatures, breezy conditions, and a chance of rain. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Tonight still looks like the best candidate so far for fairly widespread frost, especially west of NC 17 as skies remain clear and winds inland will likely be calm with high pressure building overhead tonight. As is typical in these environments, deterministic guidance for lows is not aggressive enough, so blended in NBM 10th percentile and the previous forecast to keep forecast lows into the mid to upper 30s. Could see a few well sheltered areas make a run towards the low 30s but this should be rather isolated. Frost Advisory continues for areas along and west of Hwy 17 overnight. Tuesday night is forecast to remain slightly warmer as high cirrus is forecast to stream into ENC from the west preventing good radiational cooling Tue night limiting frost potential. So while it is unlikely tomorrow night it`s not completely out of the question for inland sheltered spots. KEY MESSAGE 2...Not much has changed with this weekends system as there remains good agreement amongst guidance for increasingly unsettled weather across the eastern CONUS. A complex mid-level low will deepen over the region and steer multiple shortwaves over the Mid-Atlantic. While there are still some differences in exact details that will need to be hashed out in the coming days it remains likely that a complex low will sweep across the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic Wed into Thursday with a coastal low developing off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thurs into Friday with this coastal low then deepening offshore as it meanders around the the Northeast this weekend though its intensity and track remain uncertain. Probabilistic guidance favors a northern track for these areas of low pressure, which would keep heavier precipitation away from our area though isolated to widely scattered showers wouldn`t be out of the question. Either way not expecting much QPF from any shower that impacts the area Thurs into Fri before we dry out. The biggest threat with this aforementioned low will be the associated gusty winds. In general, probabilities for a period of 20-30 mph W-NW winds and gusts potentially in excess of 35-45 mph Fri into Sat remain high. If this is realized, at least some coastal flooding concerns could arise soundside along the Outer Banks. Given spread of guidance, it is too early to state the potential magnitude of impacts. Stay tuned for future updates. Behind the system, unseasonably cool air will flood into the area knocking highs down into the 50s for the weekend and offer the first real opportunity for a freeze Sat night and Sun night. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 0630est...Strong radiational cooling overnight with clear skies and light to calm winds has led to shallow patchy fog and possibly some patchy frost in typical sheltered/cold spots. Some obs are reporting IFR or lower but the obs that have cameras suggest the lower VIS only occurs when a tuft of the shallow fog lines up with the sensor opposed to the whole airfield being socked in. Have included prevailing 6sm MIFG for obs that are or have reported BR and TEMPO IFR or lower mentions to cover the bounce. Any flight restrictions end once the lower level moisture burns off in another hr or so. Increasing high clouds expected this afternoon. Patchy fog will again be possible Tue night/Wed morning with winds potentially going calm around midnight, but the increased cloud coverage will put a damper on overnight cooling, keeping any fog out of the TAFs at this time. Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are forecast through Wed as high pressure and a much drier airmass remain in place, but shallow patchy fog will remain possible if winds go calm. Approaching storm system at the end of the week brings an increase in shower chances, some gusty winds, and increased chances of sub- VFR conditions. && .MARINE... High pressure has begun to build in from the west behind a departing surface trough giving way to light winds and subsiding seas overnight and early Tue. Latest obs show variable winds 5-10 kt with seas mainly 2-4 ft, 3-5 ft further offshore. Light winds becoming SW 5-15 kt this afternoon with seas 2-4 ft. Outlook: Decent boating conditions expected through Wednesday. Attention then turns to a coastal low likely to develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday. Although magnitude of impacts remains uncertain, trend has been for stronger winds and the probability for strong SCA and Gales remains elevated, especially for the waters from Raleigh Bay north. Timing and intensity remains a point of uncertainty, so mariners are encouraged to continue monitoring future forecasts. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NCZ029-044-079- 080-090>092-193-198. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285150 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:37 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 621 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Full discussion updated. No significant changes to the forecast. Aviation section for 12Z TAFs updated && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Frost Advisory in effect through mid-morning today for south-central VA and interior portions of southeast VA and northeast NC. Dry and seasonably mild otherwise through mid- week. 2) A strong cold front brings chances for rain Thursday-Friday, but any potential for appreciable rain is low. Much cooler temperatures follow behind the front. && .DISCUSSION... As of 310 AM EST Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Frost Advisory in effect through mid-morning today for south-central VA and interior portions of southeast VA and northeast NC. Dry and seasonably mild otherwise through mid-week. Chilly early this morning with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Calm winds and mostly clear skies are allowing for decent radiational cooling conditions, though the position of the nearby high pressure system isn`t 100% ideal for a very cold night. Regardless, am expecting temps to drop a few more degrees through sunrise. Frost is possible away from the coast, though will tend to focused in rural and sheltered locations. A Frost Advisory is in effect for interior southern VA and NE NC where the growing season is still ongoing. After the chilly morning, temps should warm quickly, leading to a very nice day with clear skies, a SW wind, and highs in upper 60s to lower 70s. Not as cold tonight with lows in the 40s for most. Another seasonably mild day is on the way for Wednesday with sky cover and temperatures very similar to today. Could see some increase in clouds late in the day as low pressure begins to take shape well NW of the region. KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings chances for rain Thursday- Friday, but any potential for appreciable rain is low. Much cooler temperatures follow behind the front. A big change remains on the horizon as we approach late week. A shortwave trough is forecast to dive southward out of the north- central CONUS Wednesday, with a larger longwave trough and embedded upper low setting up shop over most of the eastern CONUS by Thursday and Friday. While some precip is possible Thursday and Friday, the main focus will be the much cooler temperatures that overspread the area behind the associated frontal passage. Thursday looks to be the last "mild" day for a while with pre-frontal high temps in the mid 60s NW to lower 70s SE. A series of cold fronts then crosses the local area Thursday evening and overnight, bringing those much cooler temps by Friday. At this time, forecast highs Friday are only in the 50s, with lower 50s for the northern and northwest tier of our CWA (mainly N and NW of a Farmville- Richmond- Salisbury line). The large upper trough remains parked over most of the eastern CONUS Saturday and this still looks like the coolest day of the period: highs only in the lower 50s for the entire area and even some potential for upper 40s across the N and especially the lower MD Eastern Shore. Some semblance of troughing remains in place Sunday, so those cool temps are expected to persist. Overnight lows also dip to around freezing for most locations away from the coast, with even some upper 20s possible in the Piedmont. Gusty winds could make these temps feel even chillier. A very gradual moderating trend is possible starting early next week. Regarding the precip potential Thursday-Friday, the synoptic pattern is not very favorable for appreciable rainfall. The sfc low passes W to E through the northern Mid-Atlantic Thursday, with the main trough axis lagging well behind these sfc features. The overall moisture also appears limited with the westerly flow aloft. Still, at least some light rain or showers are expected later Thursday into Friday, particularly N of the I-64 corridor and especially on the lower MD Eastern Shore. Expected/forecast QPF is only on the order of a tenth or two per the latest NBM and ensemble guidance, and even these amounts could be on the generous side. Probs for a half inch of QPF have cratered to <5-10%, so any sort of beneficial rain is unlikely at this point. Conditions dry out for the weekend, though those aforementioned gusty (NW) winds are likely to persist in the Friday-Sunday timeframe as the pressure gradient remains compressed over the area. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 620 AM EST Tuesday... VFR conditions prevail through the 12z/10 TAF period. Mostly sunny today with light and variable winds early becoming SW 5-10 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Light/calm winds return tonight. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue through the middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the west Thursday, with rain showers possible by later Thursday and Friday. Some short- lived sub-VFR conditions are possible with the frontal passage, along with some gusty NW winds and markedly cooler conditions behind the front for Friday and the weekend. && .MARINE... As of 310 AM EST Tuesday... Key Messages: - Benign marine conditions prevail through Thursday. - An extended period of strong NW winds and elevated seas are likely Friday into the weekend. However, confidence with respect to the strength of the wind and exact timing remains low. High pressure is centered over southern VA and Carolina coastal plain early this morning. The wind is less than 10kt, out of the NW across the northern tier of the local marine area, and out of the NE across the southern tier of the area. Seas range from 2-3ft in the coastal waters, to 3-4ft in the offshore waters, with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. High pressure prevails across the region through Wednesday, before moving offshore Wednesday night into Thursday. Sub- SCA conditions are expected during this timeframe. There is a weak dry cold front that crosses the coast tonight. The wind becomes WSW today and increases to 10-15kt across the Ches. Bay and ocean ahead of this boundary this aftn and early evening, before becoming N ~10kt, then NE 5-10kt behind the front later tonight into early Wednesday morning. High pressure becomes centered in vicinity of the northern Delmarva Wednesday with the wind becoming light and variable across the northern tier of the marine area, and ENE 5-10kt across the southern tier of the area. The wind then becomes SE 5- 10kt Wednesday night and then S followed by SW Thursday and increasing to 10-15kt as the high moves farther offshore and as a cold front approaches from the NW. Seas remain to 2-3ft nearshore and 3-4ft offshore today, and then 2-3ft for most of the local Atlantic zones through midweek. Waves in the Ches. Bay will be 1 to occasionally 2ft Tuesday through midweek. Low pressure and a strong cold front push across the coast and offshore Thursday night into Friday, with an extended period of CAA into the weekend. This should allow for decent mixing as a colder airmass overspreads relatively warmer SSTs. 00z/10 EPS probs for wind gusts at or above 34kt increase to generally 30-60% later Friday into early Saturday, and then to >60% Saturday aftn/evening. Meanwhile, the 00z/10 GEFS probs are negligible. Local wind probs for wind gusts at or in excess of 34kt are on average ~20% for the Ches. Bay Friday night through Saturday evening, 20-50% for the coastal waters, and 40-60% for the offshore waters. Taking a more traditional analysis, the 00z/10 ECMWF/GFS/CMC have 925mb wind speeds reaching a max of ~30kt a few hours either side of 00z Sunday (7PM Saturday). This also occurs as 925mb temperatures dive to ~0C along with pressure rises of +4-6mb/6hr, which could help boost the wind a few knots higher into gale criteria. Combining this with the probabilistic guidance, the scenario (at least as of this cycle) favors an extended period of SCA conditions Friday into the weekend, with a period of gale force gusts possible later Saturday/Saturday evening as the coldest air aloft arrives. However, it is still far enough in advance that confidence in exact details remains low. Seas potentially build to 5-7ft in the coastal waters and 7-9ft beyond 20nm, with 3-5ft waves in the Ches. Bay. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ012>014-030. VA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ079>081- 087>089-092-528-529. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285149 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:36 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 531 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 526 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 - Chances of rain gradually diminish through Wednesday night. - A medium risk of rip currents continues through Tuesday afternoon. - Cooler than average temperatures on Tuesday warm to near average by Thursday. - The next chance of rain could arrive this weekend. - Slightly adverse marine conditions on Thursday become adverse this weekend as a pressure gradient tightens. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1045 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 Radar continues to reveal scattered to numerous light to locally moderate showers, mainly along/east of US-281, thanks to convergence associated with a weak low pressure system situated over the Lower RGV, well-above average moisture content and divergence aloft provided by a mid/upper level low over northwestern Texas. This activity could continue spreading west overnight as well as drop as much as 0.25 of inch, or a little more, of rain by Tuesday morning. To the south, subsidence associated with anticyclonic flow aloft is anticipated to move northeastward and gradually decrease shower activity from south to north through the next 24-36 hours; rain chances drop from a near region-wide medium to likely (40-80%) chance tonight to a low to medium (20-50%) chance across the Northern Ranchlands and coastal/island areas by Tuesday morning, further decreasing into Wednesday. Following, dry conditions should resume by Thursday as ridging arrives over the Southern Plains ahead of a high pressure aloft building over the 4 Corners region, possibly inducing a weak cold front Wednesday night or Thursday morning, funneling drier air into the region. At this time, the latest GFS and ECMWF global deterministic runs suggest a rather robust shortwave trough arriving over southern CA and the northern Baja Peninsula on Friday, moving eastward and ejecting over the Southern Plains on Saturday, bringing the next chance of unsettled weather. This could be our next focus through the coming days with regards to the strength, location and timing of the trough`s passage as well as the atmospheric and moisture support for possible storms and rain chances Saturday into Sunday or Monday. Temperature-wise, overcast skies and light northerly winds are likely to result in another cool day on Tuesday, with highs reaching the low/mid 70s, possibly upper 60s in the Northern Ranchlands. A warming trend is anticipated through the middle of the week as clouds gradually clear, leading to more seasonable temperatures, in the low/mid 80s, by Thursday. Mostly cloudy skies from moist low-levels maintain above average overnight lows, in the 60s inland and low 70s along/near the coast though could drop into the 50/60s Thursday night behind a potential weak cold front. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 526 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Poor flying conditions, including LIFR, will prevail at the aerodromes until mid-morning today. Afterwards, dry weather should set-in. Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies will also prevail with light winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 1045 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 Slight to moderate (2-4 ft) seas and light to gentle, occasionally moderate, easterly to variable winds become northerly by Wednesday afternoon ahead of a cold front moving through, possibly late Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate (3-5 ft) behind the front are likely to lead to Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions Thursday morning/afternoon before becoming more favorable by Friday morning. However, SCEC headlines are likely and Small Craft Advisories are possible over the weekend as a pressure gradient tightens. Meanwhile, rounds of medium to likely (as high as 40-70%) chances of rain continue into Wednesday afternoon before becoming mostly dry by Thursday evening. The next chance of unsettled weather could be over this upcoming weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 79 68 79 68 / 20 10 10 10 HARLINGEN 77 65 78 65 / 20 10 10 10 MCALLEN 77 67 80 68 / 10 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 63 79 64 / 20 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 71 76 71 / 30 20 20 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 66 78 66 / 30 10 20 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ |
| #1285148 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:36 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 623 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Discussions updated. Low temps over the weekend have decreased some, bringing a potential widespread freeze into the picture away from the coast on Saturday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm afternoon temperatures will continue with low rain chances ahead of next cold front on Thursday. 2) A big cool down expected Friday into the weekend with frost/freeze conditions possible. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm afternoon temperatures will continue with low rain chances ahead of next cold front on Thursday. After a chilly start, expect high temps today in the mid-upper 70s amidst dry deep-layer westerly flow. Low temperatures will rebound through midweek as moisture gradually returns from the southwest ahead of next system. The digging mid to upper trough will aid in an increase in some clouds through midweek and will support some gusty winds and a chance of light showers on Thursday as it pushes a cold front through. KEY MESSAGE 2...A big cool down expected Friday into the weekend with frost/freeze conditions possible. After a significant mid-upper trough pushes a cold front through on Thursday, breezy west to northwest winds will usher in considerably cooler and drier air for the weekend. Confidence is increasing for multiple nights featuring widespread 30s for overnight lows and the potential for a widespread freeze is also increasing on Saturday night. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High confidence in prevailing VFR conditions through the period. Light and variable winds this morning to become prevailing southwesterly at inland terminals and southerly at the coastal terminals with increasing high cirrus. Extended outlook... VFR through at least Wednesday night. MVFR cigs may develop Thursday morning ahead of a strong cold front but confidence remains low. VFR to follow later Thursday into the weekend. && .MARINE... Mostly benign marine conditions will continue into late Wednesday with southwest to west winds mostly 10 kts or less. Winds should increase starting Wednesday night ahead of a cold front with elevated/gusty west to northwest winds behind the front on Thursday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are now possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as well as on Friday. Steady west to northwest winds continue through Saturday, although speeds and seas may be just shy of criteria. Seas in the 1-2 ft range in the nearshore waters and 2-3 ft in the 20-60 nmi waters will continue through Wednesday before increasing Wednesday night. Seas peak on Thursday with wave heights in the 2-5 ft range in the coastal waters and 5-7 ft range in the 20-60 nmi waters before subsiding somewhat on Friday. An easterly swell will be a dominant contributor to the wave spectrum through Wednesday with a period between 9 and 11 seconds before wind waves become the primary contributor Wednesday night through Saturday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285147 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:30 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 620 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 618 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers will remain possible through the middle of the week. Some thunderstorm development will also be possible on Wednesday afternoon. An isolated strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out mainly across the Lake Okeechobee region during this time frame. - A strong cold front will push through the region on Thursday night into Friday morning. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible out ahead of the front. - Behind the front, much cooler and drier air will push into the region for the upcoming weekend along with breezy conditions as high pressure builds in from the north. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 200 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Weak mid level ridging will gradually move eastward today in response to a fast moving shortwave which will move towards the lower Mississippi Valley tonight before moving across the Northern Gulf coast and into Northern Florida as Wednesday progresses. At the surface, high pressure will gradually push into the western Atlantic today and it will continue to pull further away from the region tonight into Wednesday. While plenty of drier air will remain in tact across the mid to upper levels of the atmospheric column, lower level moisture will continue to filter in over the region as a light east to southeasterly surface wind flow continues today. This will help to keep PWATs generally between 1.4 and 1.6 inches area wide today with most of this moisture residing in the lower portion of the column. While most of the region will remain dry today, this lower level moisture will be just enough to have the potential to spark off some isolated shower activity mainly due sea breeze interactions later in the afternoon. Any shower that does develop today will be low topped, however, a brief heavy downpour cannot be entirely ruled out with any stronger shower that is able to take advantage of additional forcing from mesoscale boundary collisions. High temperatures today will generally range from the lower to mid 80s along the east coast and Lake Okeechobee region to the upper 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida. The aforementioned shortwave that will be pushing across the Northern Gulf coast and into Northern Florida on Wednesday will stay well off to the north, however, it will help to shift the mid level wind flow to more of a southwesterly direction. At the same time, it will help to introduce some cooler air aloft (500mb temps of -8 to -10C) over the region which will help to create some steeper lapse rates especially up towards the Lake Okeechobee region which will be closer to the shortwave. As the surface high pulls further away, winds at the surface will remain rather light, however, the synoptic flow will gradually veer to more of a southerly direction as the day progresses. As deeper layer moisture advects into the region, this could create the opportunity for higher chances of shower and thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening hours. With a southwesterly steering flow in place, afternoon convection will favor the interior/Lake Okeechobee region as well as portions of the east coast metro areas. The main forcing mechanism for initial convective development will still be the sea breeze boundary collisions. While strong thunderstorm development chances will still remain on the lower end, with the colder air aloft and the additional instability in place some isolated strong thunderstorm activity cannot be ruled out especially where mesoscale boundary interactions take place. The stronger storms would be capable of producing gusty winds, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and heavy downpours. The best chances of stronger thunderstorm activity on Wednesday would tend to favor the Lake Okeechobee region as that is where the colder temperatures will be aloft closer to the actual shortwave. High temperatures on Wednesday will generally rise into the lower to mid 80s, however, upper 80s are possible over Southwest Florida mainly south of Alligator Alley. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 200 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 The weather pattern starts to change heading into Thursday and Friday as a series of strong mid level shortwaves push across the Midwest Wednesday night and then into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast for Thursday and Friday. Mid level troughing will extend well down to the south into the Gulf and over the Southeastern part of the county as well as the Florida Peninsula during this time frame. At the surface, an area of low pressure will dive across the Midwest and into the Mid Atlantic states on Thursday before gradually pushing off the New England Coastline Thursday night into Friday. The cold front associated with this intensifying system will extend southwestward through the Southeastern States on Thursday and then across the Florida Peninsula Thursday night into Friday. Out ahead of this frontal boundary, the pressure gradient will increase across South Florida on Thursday as winds veer to a southwesterly direction. This could create breezy and gusty conditions across the area during this time frame. The latest guidance trends seems to be leaning towards a faster frontal passage across the region which would occur later Thursday night into early Friday morning. With guidance trending towards the faster and more progressive solution, shower activity will be more scattered in nature out ahead of the front from Thursday into early Friday morning. This also would suggest chances for thunderstorm development will remain rather low as the best dynamics and instability associated with the system will be located well off to the northeast of the region. High temperatures on Thursday will generally range from around 80 across the Lake Okeechobee region to the lower to mid 80s further to the south. Behind the front, winds will gradually shift and increase out of the northwest across the region for the rest of Friday. This will allow for strong cold and dry air advection to take place especially heading into Friday afternoon as strong high pressure begins to build in from the north. This area of high pressure will keep dry conditions in place through the upcoming weekend and it will usher in the coolest airmass of the fall season so far. Cold air advection will continue to take place through the first part of the weekend before winds start to shift and become more northeasterly on Sunday. Before the northeasterly wind shift, low temperatures could drop into the 50s across most areas on Friday night into Saturday morning, and then again on Saturday night into Sunday morning. High temperatures on Saturday may only reach the upper 60s along and north of Alligator Alley due to the strong cold air advection while areas south of Alligator Alley see high temperatures in the lower 70s during this time frame. High temperatures on Sunday will start to moderate as the winds become northeasterly and cold air advection comes to an end. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. L/V winds expected to increase to 8-10 kt out of the ESE at all sites after 15Z. At KAPF, a westerly Gulf breeze will develop after 18Z. Winds become L/V again overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 200 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 A gentle to moderate easterly breeze will gradually shift and become more southerly heading towards the middle of the week. Isolated to scattered showers will remain possible today, however, chances of showers and thunderstorms will start to increase on Wednesday especially across the Atlantic waters. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less through the middle of the week. A strong cold front will gradually approach the local waters on Thursday before pushing through the region during the end of the week. Behind the front, hazardous marine conditions may develop across the Atlantic and Gulf waters for the end of the week as winds and seas increase. && .BEACHES... Issued at 200 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 84 74 85 72 / 10 10 40 10 West Kendall 85 73 85 72 / 10 10 30 10 Opa-Locka 85 73 86 71 / 10 10 40 20 Homestead 85 74 85 72 / 10 10 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 83 73 84 71 / 20 10 40 20 N Ft Lauderdale 84 73 84 71 / 20 10 30 20 Pembroke Pines 86 72 86 71 / 10 10 40 20 West Palm Beach 83 72 84 70 / 10 10 40 20 Boca Raton 83 73 84 70 / 20 10 30 20 Naples 85 72 84 72 / 10 10 10 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285145 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:24 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 621 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1232 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 - A high risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at Central Florida`s Atlantic beaches today. Please stay out of the ocean. - The next chance (20-40%) of showers and storms arrives on Wednesday afternoon. There is a low, conditional threat for a couple of strong storms with wind gusts up to 50 mph and coin- sized hail. Widespread heavy rain is not expected. - We still anticipate the coolest air so far this fall to arrive in Central Florida from Friday night through early Sunday. Wind chills of 40-45 degrees are forecast Saturday and Sunday morning from Greater Orlando northward. - Extensive flooding continues along the St. Johns River due to exceptional rainfall in the upper reaches of the basin last week. Heed the advice of local officials. The latest river forecasts are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1232 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 -----------Synoptic Overview----------- The weather pattern near Florida has changed little over the last 24 hours. A weak subtropical jet extends from Texas to Georgia, south of a quasi-zonal polar jet passing over the Northern U.S. The air is still quite dry, especially from 850-700 mb. Slightly higher moisture resides near and offshore of Southwest Florida. A ripple of energy in the subtropical jet is still expected to eject from Texas into the Southeast later today through Wednesday. The jet stream configuration will become slightly more favorable for synoptic-scale lift during this period. Some of the moisture just southwest of the area is forecast to move northward over the next 48 hours, but guidance still disagrees on overall moisture return and available instability on Wednesday. The ingredients remain in place for the well-advertised pattern change late this week. As blocking develops over the northern latitudes of N America, significant amplification of the longwave pattern will begin late on Wednesday. Eventually, a deep trough will gather over the Eastern U.S. by Thursday. A vigorous shortwave digging through the developing trough will promote surface cyclogenesis over the Ohio Valley. As the low moves toward the Delmarva Peninsula, it is expected to force a strong cold front toward Florida. The front should arrive late Thursday and pass the entire district by Friday morning. Ensembles are in excellent agreement with pattern evolution through at least Saturday, when PWAT (moisture) values fall to 30-50% of normal and 925 mb temperatures dip to +6 to +10 deg C. This will represent the most significant continental air mass intrusion into the Florida Peninsula so far this autumn. Guidance slowly moves the large trough eastward this weekend, with the lowest 500 mb heights moving off the Northeast U.S. coast by late Sunday. Surface high pressure will follow in its wake, its center remaining well north of Florida. Once the high moves east of our longitude, onshore flow should redevelop on Sunday, allowing temperature moderation to begin. Guidance quickly breaks down the high-latitude block next week, allowing the flow to become progressive across the U.S. Therefore, the upcoming cooldown this weekend is not expected to last long, and unsettled weather also may not wait too long to return. For example, just yesterday the ECMWF-AIFS ensemble was nearly alone with its indication of another shortwave within the subtropical jet reaching the northern Gulf in about a week. Cluster analysis now reveals that nearly half of physics-based members support this solution. -------Sensible Weather & Impacts------- Today - Tonight... Status-quo weather is favored for most of us on this Tuesday. Aside from some patchy morning fog, we expect partly sunny and warm weather today with highs in the low to mid 80s. Beaches will still be a concern, as the lingering swell continues to produce a high risk of numerous rip currents. Please stay out of the ocean. With subtle moisture return expected over South Florida today, we have introduced a small (20%) chance of showers near Lake Okeechobee this afternoon and evening. Most areas will stay dry through tonight, however. Wednesday - Thursday night... We`ll be keeping an eye on a disturbance approaching from the Gulf on Wednesday. Moisture will be increasing a bit, but the extent is in question, with significant disagreement in the guidance. This adds up to a 20-40% chance of afternoon and early evening showers and storms, with the highest coverage along the coast south of Cape Canaveral. A few models, led by the ECMWF, have ample instability in place. Others, such as the HRRR, are more stable. With moderate effective shear profiles, there is a conditional chance of a strong storm Wednesday afternoon. Gusty winds of 45-50 mph and coin-sized hail would be the primary hazards. On Thursday, breezy westerly winds are forecast to develop, with drier air mixing to the surface in the afternoon. Only isolated shower chances persist through Thursday night, and mostly over our southern communities. Rainfall amounts through Thursday night look rather light, with only a 1-in-10 chance of exceeding a half inch along the coast from Melbourne southward. The strong cold front will not arrive until Thursday night. Despite more cloud cover, highs on Wednesday should reach the low to mid 80s with upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday. Friday - Weekend... With the cold front quickly marching off to our south, winds turn northwesterly on Friday and Saturday and stay breezy from time to time. This will usher cooler and drier air into the area, with the coolest air arriving early Saturday. Under clearing skies, highs on Friday should range from the upper 60s to low 70s, but dip on Saturday into the mid to upper 60s. Lows Friday and Saturday nights will be chilly, in the mid/upper 40s except low 50s along the coast from Cape Canaveral and points southward. Our coldest wind chills, near and northwest of I-4, should reach the 40-45 degree range. There is still a 15-20% chance for wind chills to reach the upper 30s near and north of Greater Orlando, especially on Saturday morning. As winds turn onshore, Sunday looks a little milder by afternoon (low/mid 70s). Early Next Week... As brisk onshore flow becomes established and deepens, moisture should return. Combined with a potential disturbance approaching from the west, 20-40% shower chances reenter the picture by Monday or Tuesday. It`s too early to determine whether heavy rainfall may occur. Near-normal temperatures are forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1232 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 High pressure should drift across the local area over the next couple of days, with lighter winds and improved boating conditions. An upper-air disturbance should spark a few showers and storms on Wednesday, with isolated strong and gusty storms possible. Behind a strong cold front late Thursday, winds increase, and seas build on Friday. Hazardous boating conditions return from Friday through Saturday, especially offshore. Light/variable winds today, becoming onshore up to 10 kt along the coast by afternoon. Winds turn SSW up to 10 kt on Wednesday, then W 10-15 kt on Thursday. Fresh northwest winds develop Thu night into Friday, 15-25 kt early Friday morning. Another surge of fresh NW winds may occur Friday night and early Saturday. Seas 3-5 ft today, subsiding to 2-3 ft on Wed/Thu. Seas on Fri/Sat build to 3-4 ft nearshore, and up to 7 ft in the Gulf Stream. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 609 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Continued mainly VFR. Will continue to monitor for patchy fog formation during the early morning, but confidence is low. A weak pgrad remains in place, thus light/variable winds continue with transition onshore (5-10 kts) at the coast in the afternoon with sea breeze development. A few showers may be possible later today surrounding Lake Okee, but confidence not there yet for any of this activity surviving near the Treasure Coast terminals. Gradual moistening late today and tonight with an increase in cloud-cover later in the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1232 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Fire weather thresholds should remain out of reach through Friday. By Saturday, much drier air arrives over Central Florida. RH minima are forecast to fall to 35-40% over the interior from Osceola County northward, with northwest winds around 10 mph. Moisture slowly returns beginning Sunday into next week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1232 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 River flood warnings remain in effect for all St. Johns River forecast points (Cocoa, Geneva, Sanford, DeLand and Astor). River levels are forecast to continue holding steady or slowly rise over the next several days. Specifically, the river west of Cocoa (COCF1) is within Major Flood Stage, with other points within or forecast to reach Minor to Moderate flood stage. River forecasts out five days are issued twice daily by the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available online at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB. While a few storms may develop on Wednesday, widespread heavy rain is not forecast. There is a 10% chance of localized rainfall amounts exceeding 1/2" along the Space and Treasure Coasts. The next significant rain chance should then hold off until early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 81 65 82 62 / 0 0 20 0 MCO 83 69 83 65 / 0 10 20 10 MLB 82 69 83 65 / 0 10 30 20 VRB 83 69 85 66 / 10 10 40 20 LEE 83 67 82 62 / 0 0 10 0 SFB 84 68 83 63 / 0 0 20 0 ORL 83 69 83 65 / 0 10 20 10 FPR 82 68 84 65 / 10 10 40 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1285143 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 512 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 512 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 - Low to medium rain chances (20-40%) will continue through Veteran`s Day morning - A cold front will push through Thursday brining the next shoot of cooler mornings through Friday night - Coastal Flood Advisory this morning && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1220 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Shower activity will slowly taper through the overnight hours with the loss of daytime heating as our mid/upper-level trough continues to elongate across the state and advects drier air from the southwest. A surface high currently over the northern Gulf will progress east as we go into Tuesday, which will allow a brief southerly to southeasterly return flow across our area. This, in combination with enhanced mid/upper-level support associated with our trough and higher surface moisture levels, will allow for continued rain chances as we go into Tuesday. While not as quite as high as previous days, PWAT values will remain elevated closer to the coastline (1.6-1.8" range, which will support brief periods of locally heavier rainfall with any stronger storm, while inland locations have lower PWAT values (1.1-1.5") and thus inland locations will have lower rainfall amounts. Additional rainfall through Tuesday evening of 0.5-1 inches are possible across the Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains with 1-2 inches closer to the Coastal Bend. Lower rain chances (20-30%) will exist early Wednesday morning along the coast as the main forcing associated with the trough moves east and dry air filters in. Our next cold front looks to arrive sometime Thursday bringing cooler temperatures and lower humidity, but model discrepancies on exact timing and intensity do remain at this time. We will have a better grasp on exact details oncer there is better agreement on model consensus. Nonetheless, cooler and drier conditions will prevail through Friday. Another mid-level trough looks to dig across the Southwestern US/northwestern Mexico this weekend bringing the next chance for rain. The overall risk for minor coastal flooding will continue through this morning. P-ETSS guidance forecasts water levels reaching near 1.7 ft above MSL through the upcoming tide cycles but with the lack of higher wave periods, not sure there`ll be enough of a push to create enough runup to cause additional concerns. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 512 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 MVFR/IFR ceilings continue across the Brush Country, with generally MVFR to briefly VFR conditions across the Coastal Plains. Expect conditions to be MVFR/IFR across the entire region through the TAF period. Lingering showers could also drop visibility to MVFR/IFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 1220 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Winds become variable and light to gentle (BF 2-3) through Wednesday ahead of the next cold front that will move through on Thursday. Behind the frontal passage, a moderate to fresh northerly breeze develops that wanes by Friday morning. Daily light rain chances continue through Wednesday before clearing out with the front on Thursday through Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1220 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Recent rainfalls and additional rain chances through Tuesday will continue to keep the fire risk low through the next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 72 64 77 63 / 50 40 10 0 Victoria 70 60 76 59 / 40 40 10 0 Laredo 71 63 77 63 / 20 10 0 0 Alice 69 60 75 59 / 50 40 10 0 Rockport 75 64 77 63 / 40 30 20 0 Cotulla 69 59 76 59 / 30 0 0 0 Kingsville 72 62 77 61 / 50 40 10 0 Navy Corpus 74 68 76 68 / 60 30 20 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285142 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:12 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 501 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cloudy and cool through Wednesday with some chances of mainly light rain. - Cold front is expected Wednesday night followed by drier cooler weather for the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 A mid-upper level ridge will continue to move eastward across Texas through late Tuesday, while a surface coastal trough meanders over the Lower to Mid Texas Coast and the northwestern Gulf waters. Rain chances will taper down overnight with areas along and south of I-10 still expected to have light to occasionally moderate showers and/or drizzle. The low temperatures will be a tad bit cooler tonight, ranging in the lower 50s for the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region, the mid to upper 50s over the rest of the inland portions, and the upper 50s to lower 60s along the coast. On Tuesday, isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast, with the higher PoPs focused over areas in and around Matagorda Bay - closest to the influence of the coastal trough. Temperatures will be warmer with highs rising into the lower and mid 70s on Tuesday and generally between the mid 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday night for much of the inland portions. Rain chances persist on Tuesday night as another mid level disturbance moves overhead. Although we could expected additional showers and isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday, the chances are lower as the coastal trough begins to move southeastward just before moving into the Upper Texas Coast. The best chance for rain will continue to be over areas south of I-10, closest to the trough and where the higher moisture amounts reside. Conditions will warm up a little further on Wednesday, as warm moist air from the Gulf converges over Southeast Texas. Look for highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s areawide. There is a signal for a weak front (possibly a backdoor front) moving through sometime Wednesday night or early Thursday along with drier air pushing in from the north and northeast in its wake. Not a whole lot of "cooling" happening on the forecast behind this front other than cooler nights. The highs over the second half of the week remain in the mid to upper 70s but the overnight lows will drop back down into the upper 40s to mid 50s inland for Thursday and Friday night. Rain chances could return sometime late Saturday and Sunday as moisture returns to the area ahead of another mid level trough and surface coastal trough. Cotto && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 405 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Showers from the southwest are expected to move through the region today. Rainfall will generally be light with VFR FLs, though occasional periods moderate rainfall could bring VIS reductions, especially during this afternoon. Shower coverage lulls this evening, though another round of moderate rainfall will develop overnight into Wednesday morning. MVFR-IFR CIGs/fog may develop during the early morning as a result. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 Light to moderate east to northeast winds and seas of 1-3 feet are expected through Wednesday. Winds over Matagorda Bay and adjacent waters have been mostly between 15-20 kts with higher gusts. Caution Flags are now in effect for that region through Wednesday afternoon. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue through at least late Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to move through late Wednesday night or early Tuesday morning, leading to moderate offshore winds and elevated seas of up to 5 feet on Thursday. Caution flags will likely be needed. Winds relax and seas subside Thursday night into Friday. East to southeast winds return during the upcoming weekend along with increasing rain chances ahead of another cold frontal passage. Cotto && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 74 57 79 56 / 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 77 61 79 61 / 30 20 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 75 67 75 65 / 20 40 20 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 2 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ330-350-370. && $$ |
| #1285141 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:09 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 604 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 603 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 - There is a medium chance of fog tomorrow morning across portions of southwest Georgia and the Florida Big Bend from the Flint River Valley eastward and southeastward to Cross City. - Dry weather will persist through the first half of this week with seasonably cool overnight lows and mild afternoon highs. A reinforcing blast of cold air is expected for the end of the work week, into the weekend, with a low to medium chance of frost over the weekend away from the coast. && .SHORT TERM & LONG TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 139 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 High pressure nearby will keep very light and variable winds across the area through midweek. Expect dry conditions to prevail with highs in the 70s and lows in the low 40s to low 50s. Southwesterly flow returns Wednesday as the gradient tightens in response to an approaching cold front. This front is forecast to push through the area Thursday, with breezy northwesterly winds ushering in a cooler and drier air mass in its wake. A few showers will be possible ahead of this front, but meaningful rainfall accumulation is not expected. Highs are forecast to fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s this weekend in the wake of the front with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. If the front is as strong as currently forecast, there may be some frost possible over the weekend and a low to medium chance of freezing temperatures across our far northern SE AL and SW GA counties Saturday night. A gradual warming trend is expected to start out next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 High clouds stream through the region today. VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period with light westerly breezes. && .MARINE... Issued at 139 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Light to moderate offshore winds with dry weather expected to last into mid week. On Thursday and Friday, northwest winds are expected to increase to advisory-level as a cold front pushes through the area with gusts near 30 knots expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 139 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 A dry airmass will continue through the middle of the week. Winds will remain light through Wednesday, then a cold front will blow through on Thursday with an increase in winds for Thursday and Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 219 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026 Given the dry conditions expected over the next week, there are currently no flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 79 56 76 57 / 0 0 20 0 Panama City 76 58 75 63 / 0 0 20 0 Dothan 76 52 75 53 / 0 0 10 0 Albany 76 52 74 54 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 78 53 76 54 / 0 0 20 0 Cross City 81 59 79 58 / 0 0 10 0 Apalachicola 75 60 74 63 / 0 0 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285140 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:55 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 550 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry & seasonable weather continues through mid-week with a good amount of sunshine. Temperatures range from the the 30s-lower 40s overnight to upper 50s in the afternoons. - Monitoring another storm Friday, although there remains high uncertainty in exact timing and storm track. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry & seasonable weather continues through mid-week with a good amount sunshine. Temperatures range from the the 30s- lower 40s overnight to upper 50s in the afternoons. Dry westerly flow continues through the middle of the week under zonal flow at the mid levels, sandwiched between a surface low over eastern Canada and high pressure over the southeast U.S. Not much change in the airmass overhead with 925 mb temps in the 6-8C range Tue/Wed. Some lingering moisture in the mid/upper levels moves through early leading to increased cloudcover this morning, but drying out/clearing up by the afternoon with plenty of sun. This continues Wednesday though we`ll start to see some moisture/increasing cloudcover filtering in later in the day Wednesday. Altogether, should see high temperatures each day topping out in the mid to upper 50s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Monitoring another storm Friday, although there remains high uncertainty in exact timing and storm track. The latest round of ensemble guidance continues to show large uncertainty in the development of a potential storm as we head into the late week/weekend, especially within the track of the low. While all guidance continues to indicate paths anywhere from Maryland to Nova Scotia, the ECMWF and Canadian ensembles (and their AI ensembles) have trended towards the 40N/70W benchmark or slightly south while the GFS ensemble shows tracks closer towards the southern New England coast. Despite the uncertainty in track, most guidance has indicated the low deepening into the mid 990mbs by early Friday morning as well as 850mb temperatures dropping to below freezing across southern New England by Friday evening, supporting chances for some snow to mix into the region Friday and Friday night across the higher elevation regions. Probabilities continue to indicate only a 30-50% chance for 1"+ of snow in the higher terrain, with the highest chances along the eastern slopes of the Berkshires, and less than 20% probability for 3" or more. As mentioned by previous forecasters, those probabilites assume a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio, and unless we get really heavy precipitation rates (highly unlikely), those 10:1 SLR accumulations would likely be lower with wetter snow characterization being more favored. Any winter weather impacts in the higher elevations are likely to be very limited to nil, and this is reflected by low probabilities of Minor winter storm impacts in the Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index. Heading into the second half the weekend, the low will push further into Atlantic Canada and high pressure begins to build over the Mid- Atlantic region, bringing a return to blustery and dry conditions to southern New England for the start of the next work week. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12z TAF Update... VFR conditions continue through the middle of the week despite some scattered to broken mid level cloudiness at times. W winds may gust on the order of 15-25 knots at times, mainly during the daylight hours...although the Cape/Islands may see gusts linger into the overnight period. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/... Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance FZRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. RA. Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA, chance SN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA, chance SN. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Wednesday night...High confidence. Westerly wind gusts of 20-25 knots will persist at times into early Wed with a second surge late of wind late Tue night behind a cold front. Therefore...have continued a Small Craft Advisory for many waters into Tue and even early Wed for our outer-waters before things finally diminish. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/... Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain, slight chance of thunderstorms. Friday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Rain. Friday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Rain likely. Saturday: Strong winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain likely. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ231- 251. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ232>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ250- 254>256. && $$ |
| #1285139 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:24 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 513 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Patchy Dense Fog this morning. Visibilities Less Than 1/2 Mile at Times - Strong Cold Front Passage Late Thursday. Small Craft Advisory Conditions. Patchy frost possible inland SE GA Sunday Morning && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights Today and Tonight: - Areas of dense fog possible this morning This morning...Mostly clear skies and cooling boundary layer with near calm surface winds will support another round of dense fog towards sunrise. Best chances for dense fog will be across inland NE FL from the St. Johns River basin westward across inland NE FL along the US301/I-75/I-10 corridors, with some lower dense fog potential north of the FL/GA border across inland SE GA south of a line from Homerville to Waycross to Brunswick. Dense fog advisories may be required in the 4am-9am time frame. Low temps will cool into the 40s across inland SE GA and the I-10 corridor west of JAX, with 50s expected elsewhere. This afternoon...Slow increase in high clouds, but overall partly to mostly sunny with above normal temps around 80F inland and 70s for the Atlantic beaches. West to Southwest surface winds 5-10 mph with a weak East Coast sea breeze pushing inland to I-95 late in the day. Tonight...Mid and high clouds continue to increase slowly through the night in the SW flow aloft ahead of the next weather system and expect partly to mostly cloudy skies towards morning. This will decrease dense fog potential for late tonight/Wednesday sunrise with only patchy/areas of fog with 1-5 mile vsbys expected. Not as cool with lows around 50F expected inland SE GA and middle 50s for the I- 10 corridor west of JAX, then upper 50s/lower 60s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Wednesday through Thursday Main Highlights This Period: - Breezy Westerly Winds Thursday High pressure weakens over the SE US as a cold front moves through the Plains and into the SE US by Thursday. Flow shifts to WSW ahead of the front ushering in some moisture and increasing PWATs to the 1- 1.5 inch range. A mid-upper shortwave trough moves through the region Wednesday afternoon into evening triggering a few showers mainly along the I-10 corridor. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions prevail as highs continue to top out in the upper 70s to low 80s with mild lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Breezy westerly winds develop on Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Drier air builds back in ahead of the front lowering PWATs to below an inch allowing for a dry frontal passage. Around seasonable highs in the 70s on Thursday quickly drop Thursday night as the front shifts south into central FL. Cold and breezy NW winds develop in the wake of the front with lows Friday morning in the 40s across SE GA and Suwannee Valley to the low-mid 50s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Friday through Monday Main Highlights This Period: - Much cooler & drier Friday through Sunday - Inland Frost Potential Southeast GA/Suwannee Valley Sunday Morning Breezy and cold northwest winds continue Friday in the wake of the front draped across central FL. Friday highs will only top out in the 60s. On Friday night, another dry cold front slides offshore of the southeast Atlantic coast reinforcing the cold airmass and keeping winds elevated. This will lead to wind chills dropping into the 30s Saturday morning for much of the area. Winds begin to relax Saturday into Sunday as surface high pressure builds in from the northwest with dry weather and below average highs in the 60s for most with possibly some upper 50s for locations northwest of Waycross. Saturday will likely be the coolest day of the year since mid-March last spring. With calm winds and mostly clear skies, overnight lows fall into the mid/upper 30s for inland locations north of Interstate 10 Sunday morning, with 40s elsewhere. Sunday morning could be the first inland frost of the season for much of inland southeast GA and Suwannee Valley. Temperatures gradually warm into early next week as high pressure builds south into the Great Lakes region and flow shifts to ESE. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... So far this morning have only had LIFR conds develop at VQQ/SSI, while expect at least some MVFR conds possible through sunrise at the other TAF sites of JAX/CRG/GNV/SGJ. Conds improve back to VFR by 13-14Z with light and variable winds around 5 knots today along with an increase in high clouds. Winds decrease to near calm again after sunset this evening with a further increase and thickening of mid and high clouds through the overnight hours. This increase in cloud cover will lower fog chances late in the TAF period and will leave out of the forecast for now. && .MARINE... High pressure will weaken over the southeastern states Today, allowing seas to continue to subside. Strong cold frontal passage expected on Thursday and will lead to strengthening offshore flow on Thursday. Small Craft Advisory conditions appear likely to begin Thursday afternoon and will continue on Friday and Saturday. Rip Currents: Light winds and decreasing swells will lead to mainly Moderate Risk of Rips at both NE FL/SE GA beaches Today and Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... - High Daytime Dispersions Possible Thursday And Friday Dry conditions and light westerly winds persist through midweek, with Poor to Fair daytime dispersions. The dry airmass will continue to bring min RHs down to the upper 20s to 30s for southeast Georgia. The arrival of a cold front on Thursday will bring breezy conditions across a good portion of the area, which will allow for very good to high dispersions to develop. Behind the front, a colder, drier airmass will begin to build into the area, with temperatures likely dipping down to the mid to upper 30s across southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley Region Friday and Saturday Night. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Areas of dense fog possible early this morning, mainly over northeast FL. Patchy Frost possible this weekend over inland SE GA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 80 50 76 54 / 10 10 10 0 SSI 76 57 77 58 / 10 10 10 0 JAX 81 55 79 56 / 10 10 20 0 SGJ 79 61 78 60 / 10 10 20 0 GNV 82 59 80 57 / 10 10 20 0 OCF 82 61 81 59 / 10 10 10 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285138 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 434 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Minor coastal flooding will continue across the Upper Keys around the times of high tide. - Rain chances will near to below normal through mid week, with dewpoints remaining in the lower 70s. - The first strong cold front of the season will push through the Keys on Friday, with much cooler "sweater weather" possible in its wake through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 434 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Overnight was a little more active than last night. With that being said, we`ve only had widely scattered showers, mainly west of the Seven Bridge overnight. These showers have remained relatively shallow and once again no lightning has been observed in any of the activity. Meanwhile, winds have gone east to southeast thanks to a sprawling, surface high pressure currently moving into the Southeast U.S. This wind direction has also kept it quite mild and muggy across the island chain. In fact, if temperatures don`t fall out of the 80s this morning or this evening before midnight, we`ll set new records for warm minimum temperatures. The aforementioned surface high will pivot a pocket of drier air across the region today and tonight. This will limit rain chances to 10 percent or less through the same period. Given the high`s proximity to our region, we can continue to see winds fluctuate between 5 to 10 mph and briefly 10 to 15 mph at times. In addition, we can expect above normal temperatures along with muggy conditions to persist today through Wednesday. By Wednesday, a surface low diving out of Canada will undergo rapid strengthening. As this occurs, it will initially shove the high out across the Atlantic, just northeast of the Bahamas. As the low gathers strength on Thursday and builds it will continue to push the high further out over open water. Meanwhile, an attendent strong cold front looks poised to sweep through late Thursday into early Friday. As a result the Keys will see winds quickly box around the compass, going from east to southeast on Wednesday to southwest to west by Thursday. As the front gets closer there may be enough instability and lift associated with the front to allow for some isolated thunderstorms to develop. In addition, we will see wind speeds steadily increasing ahead of the front and peaking on Friday in its wake. Dew points and temperatures will thankfully take a dip but will be short-lived. Additionally, this first round of winds will be relatively short as well as a strong high from Canada dives southeast and shoves this low out across the North Atlantic. This will result in a brief lull in winds but as this next high moves further east, it will send a reinforcing backdoor front across the region. We could potentially see a prolonged period of breezy to windy conditions early next week. Stay tuned! && .MARINE... Issued at 434 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Widely scattered showers are mainly confined the Southeast Gulf and the far western waters of the Straits of Florida. Outside of any convection, we can expect gentle to occasionally moderate easterly breezes today. Those waters immediately in the lee of the southwest Mainland, will see a brief period of light to gentle breezes. Otherwise, high pressure currently located across the Southeast U.S. will move north and northeast of the Bahamas through the day and into Wednesday. This will lead to slackening breezes and quickly clocking around from the south and southwest. By Thursday, an approaching strong cold front will further clock winds from the west and northwest and gradually allow for freshening breezes. Confidence remains high that a period of fresh to potentially strong breezes will accompany in the wake of the frontal passage. Thereafter, a strong Canadian High will dive southeast initially bringing a relative lull to breezes but is expected to push through a backdoor front. This has the potential to bring a prolonged period of fresh to strong breezes for early next week. Mariners should check back through the week as we get closer to the event. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 434 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. There is a small chance that isolated showers may develop in-situ near the terminals around sunrise. Otherwise, near surface winds will remain east to southeast at 10 knots or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 85 77 85 76 / 10 20 30 30 Marathon 85 78 85 77 / 10 10 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285137 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:39 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 433 AM AST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 343 AM AST Tue Nov 10 2026 - Locally induced afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop each day over the interior and northern sections of Puerto Rico. - Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, fair weather conditions will prevail for most of the week. Warm to hot temperatures are expected with daily highs ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s. - Northeasterly swells will maintain a high rip current risk for the north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico through late tonight/early Wednesday morning. - Southerly winds will promote warm to hot conditions during the second part of the week. && .Short Term(Today through Thursday)... Issued at 343 AM AST Tue Nov 10 2026 Recent surface analyses and the latest global model guidance indicate that surface high pressure will remain the dominant synoptic feature over the western and central Atlantic through Thursday. This positioning will maintain a moderate east to southeast trade wind flow across the northeastern Caribbean. In the lower levels, weak perturbations embedded within this southeasterly flow will traverse the region, providing subtle forcing. Recent satellite-derived moisture data and sounding climatology highlight a humid airmass entrenched over the islands, with precipitable water values generally hovering between 1.90 and 2.20 inches. Moisture levels will remain from normal to slightly above normal, providing sufficient fuel for showers today. Although moisture content will fluctuate during the rest of the period, a building ridge aloft should promote overall stable conditions and drier air aloft. However, sufficient moisture at the lower levels of the atmosphere will set the stage for a fairly typical, diurnally driven precipitation pattern. During the overnight and early morning hours, patches of low-level moisture will be advected across coastal areas, bringing passing showers to the U.S. Virgin Islands and the eastern and southeastern coastal plains of Puerto Rico. By the afternoon hours, daytime heating combined with local topographical effects and sea breeze convergence will aid in more concentrated convective development focused over the interior and western to northwestern quadrants of Puerto Rico. While significant instability is not anticipated, this afternoon convection can support localized heavy rainfall. Consequently, isolated instances of urban and small stream flooding, as well as minor water accumulation on roadways, will remain the primary weather hazards each afternoon. && .Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)... Issued at 343 AM AST Tue Nov 10 2026 A mid-level ridge establishing over northeastern Caribbean late this weekend should promote more stable conditions over the weekend. As a result, warming temperatures at the mid-levels (500mb), with a 80% chance of exceeding -6 degrees Celsius each afternoon until early next weekend, could promote subsidence and stability aloft. In addition, a surface high pressure will increase the local pressure gradient, strengthening winds from the S-SE. This pattern will extend into early next week, and while more stable conditions are expected, low-level moisture and local effects should enhance shower and isolated thunderstorm activity each afternoon mainly towards the interior to northwest region, driven by a predominant S-SE wind flow. Deeper convection is expected on Friday, with more shallow convection expected for the rest of the period. However, the probability of rainfall accumulations exceeding at least 0.5 inches in 24 hours remain below 30% on Friday until Monday, suggesting that we could see less intense downpours during this period. By Tuesday, a disturbance will drag moisture into the islands, increasing the chance of exceeding 0.5 inches of rainfall to 40-45%. The highest flooding potential is expected on Friday, mainly towards northwestern/northern Puerto Rico. This will pose a threat of ponding of water over roadways and poorly drained areas, along with isolated urban and small stream flooding. Additionally, with a S-SE wind flow, seasonal moisture content in the low-levels, and minimal cloud cover could trigger hot and humid conditions, especially during the weekend, likely to increase heat indices to levels that affect most individuals sensitive to heat. Therefore, they are encouraged to stay hydrated and cool during peak daytime heating hours. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 343 AM AST Tue Nov 10 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals during the next 24 hours. However, locally induced SHRA/TSRA may develop in and around TJSJ/TJBQ btw 10/16-22z and cause tempo MVFR conditions. Weak SSE winds up to 10 knots with sea breeze variations expected aft 10/13z. && .MARINE... Issued at 343 AM AST Tue Nov 10 2026 The northerly swell will continue to maintain seas of 4 to 5 feet across the offshore Atlantic waters today. Meanwhile, another northerly swell is expected to reach the Atlantic waters later today, maintaining elevated seas across the Atlantic waters and local passages through at least Wednesday. Elsewhere, seas across the Caribbean waters will generally remain at 1 to 3 feet. Light to gentle winds will prevail today before increasing to moderate from Wednesday onward. Showers and isolated thunderstorms may produce locally higher winds and seas. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 343 AM AST Tue Nov 10 2026 Energy from the ongoing northerly swell will continue to produce hazardous swimming conditions along the northern exposed beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra. Another pulse of northerly swell is expected to arrive later today, prolonging hazardous surf zone conditions. Therefore, the high risk of rip currents has been extended through at least early Wednesday morning for the affected beaches. A moderate risk of rip currents will continue along the beaches of Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Continue to monitor the forecast for additional updates. Thunderstorms will remain an additional beach hazard, particularly during the afternoon hours. If thunder is heard, seek shelter immediately. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ001-002-005- 008-010-012. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1285136 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:15 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 313 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Full discussion updated. No significant changes to the forecast. Aviation section for 06z TAFs also updated && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Frost Advisory in effect through mid-morning today for south-central VA and interior portions of southeast VA and northeast NC. Dry and seasonably mild otherwise through mid- week. 2) A strong cold front brings chances for rain Thursday-Friday, but any potential for appreciable rain is low. Much cooler temperatures follow behind the front. && .DISCUSSION... As of 310 AM EST Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Frost Advisory in effect through mid-morning today for south-central VA and interior portions of southeast VA and northeast NC. Dry and seasonably mild otherwise through mid-week. Chilly early this morning with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Calm winds and mostly clear skies are allowing for decent radiational cooling conditions, though the position of the nearby high pressure system isn`t 100% ideal for a very cold night. Regardless, am expecting temps to drop a few more degrees through sunrise. Frost is possible away from the coast, though will tend to focused in rural and sheltered locations. A Frost Advisory is in effect for interior southern VA and NE NC where the growing season is still ongoing. After the chilly morning, temps should warm quickly, leading to a very nice day with clear skies, a SW wind, and highs in upper 60s to lower 70s. Not as cold tonight with lows in the 40s for most. Another seasonably mild day is on the way for Wednesday with sky cover and temperatures very similar to today. Could see some increase in clouds late in the day as low pressure begins to take shape well NW of the region. KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings chances for rain Thursday- Friday, but any potential for appreciable rain is low. Much cooler temperatures follow behind the front. A big change remains on the horizon as we approach late week. A shortwave trough is forecast to dive southward out of the north- central CONUS Wednesday, with a larger longwave trough and embedded upper low setting up shop over most of the eastern CONUS by Thursday and Friday. While some precip is possible Thursday and Friday, the main focus will be the much cooler temperatures that overspread the area behind the associated frontal passage. Thursday looks to be the last "mild" day for a while with pre-frontal high temps in the mid 60s NW to lower 70s SE. A series of cold fronts then crosses the local area Thursday evening and overnight, bringing those much cooler temps by Friday. At this time, forecast highs Friday are only in the 50s, with lower 50s for the northern and northwest tier of our CWA (mainly N and NW of a Farmville- Richmond- Salisbury line). The large upper trough remains parked over most of the eastern CONUS Saturday and this still looks like the coolest day of the period: highs only in the lower 50s for the entire area and even some potential for upper 40s across the N and especially the lower MD Eastern Shore. Some semblance of troughing remains in place Sunday, so those cool temps are expected to persist. Overnight lows also dip to around freezing for most locations away from the coast, with even some upper 20s possible in the Piedmont. Gusty winds could make these temps feel even chillier. A very gradual moderating trend is possible starting early next week. Regarding the precip potential Thursday-Friday, the synoptic pattern is not very favorable for appreciable rainfall. The sfc low passes W to E through the northern Mid-Atlantic Thursday, with the main trough axis lagging well behind these sfc features. The overall moisture also appears limited with the westerly flow aloft. Still, at least some light rain or showers are expected later Thursday into Friday, particularly N of the I-64 corridor and especially on the lower MD Eastern Shore. Expected/forecast QPF is only on the order of a tenth or two per the latest NBM and ensemble guidance, and even these amounts could be on the generous side. Probs for a half inch of QPF have cratered to <5-10%, so any sort of beneficial rain is unlikely at this point. Conditions dry out for the weekend, though those aforementioned gusty (NW) winds are likely to persist in the Friday-Sunday timeframe as the pressure gradient remains compressed over the area. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1220 AM EST Tuesday... VFR conditions are noted across area terminals early this morning and will prevail through the 06z/10 TAF period. Cannot rule out patchy ground fog over interior VA and NE NC, but this would likely remain W and S of the terminals. Otherwise, mainly clear with light/variable winds through much of this morning, becoming SW ~10 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue through the middle of the week. Another cold front approaches from the west, with rain showers possible by later Thursday and Friday. Some short-lived sub-VFR conditions are possible with the frontal passage, along with some strong NW winds and markedly cooler conditions forecast behind the front for Friday and the weekend. && .MARINE... As of 310 AM EST Tuesday... Key Messages: - Benign marine conditions prevail through Thursday. - An extended period of strong NW winds and elevated seas are likely Friday into the weekend. However, confidence with respect to the strength of the wind and exact timing remains low. High pressure is centered over southern VA and Carolina coastal plain early this morning. The wind is less than 10kt, out of the NW across the northern tier of the local marine area, and out of the NE across the southern tier of the area. Seas range from 2-3ft in the coastal waters, to 3-4ft in the offshore waters, with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. High pressure prevails across the region through Wednesday, before moving offshore Wednesday night into Thursday. Sub- SCA conditions are expected during this timeframe. There is a weak dry cold front that crosses the coast tonight. The wind becomes WSW today and increases to 10-15kt across the Ches. Bay and ocean ahead of this boundary this aftn and early evening, before becoming N ~10kt, then NE 5-10kt behind the front later tonight into early Wednesday morning. High pressure becomes centered in vicinity of the northern Delmarva Wednesday with the wind becoming light and variable across the northern tier of the marine area, and ENE 5-10kt across the southern tier of the area. The wind then becomes SE 5- 10kt Wednesday night and then S followed by SW Thursday and increasing to 10-15kt as the high moves farther offshore and as a cold front approaches from the NW. Seas remain to 2-3ft nearshore and 3-4ft offshore today, and then 2-3ft for most of the local Atlantic zones through midweek. Waves in the Ches. Bay will be 1 to occasionally 2ft Tuesday through midweek. Low pressure and a strong cold front push across the coast and offshore Thursday night into Friday, with an extended period of CAA into the weekend. This should allow for decent mixing as a colder airmass overspreads relatively warmer SSTs. 00z/10 EPS probs for wind gusts at or above 34kt increase to generally 30-60% later Friday into early Saturday, and then to >60% Saturday aftn/evening. Meanwhile, the 00z/10 GEFS probs are negligible. Local wind probs for wind gusts at or in excess of 34kt are on average ~20% for the Ches. Bay Friday night through Saturday evening, 20-50% for the coastal waters, and 40-60% for the offshore waters. Taking a more traditional analysis, the 00z/10 ECMWF/GFS/CMC have 925mb wind speeds reaching a max of ~30kt a few hours either side of 00z Sunday (7PM Saturday). This also occurs as 925mb temperatures dive to ~0C along with pressure rises of +4-6mb/6hr, which could help boost the wind a few knots higher into gale criteria. Combining this with the probabilistic guidance, the scenario (at least as of this cycle) favors an extended period of SCA conditions Friday into the weekend, with a period of gale force gusts possible later Saturday/Saturday evening as the coldest air aloft arrives. However, it is still far enough in advance that confidence in exact details remains low. Seas potentially build to 5-7ft in the coastal waters and 7-9ft beyond 20nm, with 3-5ft waves in the Ches. Bay. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ012>014-030. VA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ079>081- 087>089-092-528-529. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285135 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:45 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 131 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 131 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 - A strong cold front pushes through the area on Thursday, bringing much cooler temperatures. Marine winds will strengthen behind the front along with building seas. - A light freeze is possible well inland late Friday night and Saturday night, roughly along and north of Highway 84. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 A weakening upper low over Texas breaks down to an open wave then is absorbed into a rather large upper trof that evolves over the eastern half of the CONUS Wednesday into Thursday. This latter feature will bring a strong cold front through the forecast area mainly from Thursday morning into the early afternoon. A gradual warming trend continues ahead of the approaching front along with improving deep layer moisture, sufficient to allow for isolated to scattered convection to develop over the southern portion of the area on Wednesday. Lows tonight range from the lower 40s well inland to near 50 at the coast then trend by Wednesday night to range from the lower 50s inland to near 60 at the coast. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 70s. The cold front ushers in much cooler and drier air, with lows by Friday night ranging from the lower 30s well inland to the lower 40s at the immediate coast. Lows Saturday night will be similar. This continues to look to have the potential to bring the first light freeze of the season to the northern portion of the area Friday night and Saturday night, roughly along and north of Highway 84. NBM probabilities for dropping below 32F are about 20-60% in this portion Friday night and 20-70% Saturday night, with the highest potential generally over northern Choctaw and northern Wilcox counties. Highs on Friday will be mostly in the lower to mid 60s, then highs on Saturday will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Temperatures begin to moderate on Sunday, with highs in the lower to mid 60s along with lows Sunday night ranging from the mid/upper 30s well inland to around 50 at the coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Wednesday with a moderate risk for Thursday. A low risk follows for Friday. /29 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 VFR conditions will prevail for the entire period. A batch of upper level clouds are pushing into the area, and accompanies by a few spots of virga evident on radar, though cloud bases should remain well above VFR categories. Otherwise, surface high pressure overspreading the area will lead to tranquil flying conditions with light and variable winds through Tuesday evening. KL/31 && .MARINE... Issued at 131 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 High pressure over the area will continue to promote light winds and calm waves/seas through Wednesday. Winds increase out of the west late Wednesday into early Thursday ahead of an approaching strong cold front, expected to pass the area Thursday morning. This will lead to an increase in offshore moderate to strong flow Thursday and Friday. Expect small craft advisory conditions in this time frame with winds 20-25kts and gusts to 30kts. Waves/seas respond reaching 1-2ft for protected waters, 2-3ft for nearshore Gulf zones and 3-5 ft for outer Gulf zones. Winds and wave/seas taper going into next weekend. KLG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 79 54 77 56 / 0 10 20 0 Pensacola 76 59 75 62 / 0 10 20 0 Destin 75 60 74 63 / 0 0 20 0 Evergreen 77 48 75 51 / 0 0 10 0 Waynesboro 78 49 78 53 / 0 10 10 0 Camden 75 48 74 53 / 0 0 10 0 Crestview 78 49 75 52 / 0 0 30 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285134 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:42 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 238 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 139 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 - There is a medium chance of fog tomorrow morning across portions of southwest Georgia and the Florida Big Bend from the Flint River Valley eastward and southeastward to Cross City. - Dry weather will persist through the first half of this week with seasonably cool overnight lows and mild afternoon highs. A reinforcing blast of cold air is expected for the end of the work week, into the weekend, with a low to medium chance of frost over the weekend away from the coast. && .SHORT TERM & LONG TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 139 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 High pressure nearby will keep very light and variable winds across the area through midweek. Expect dry conditions to prevail with highs in the 70s and lows in the low 40s to low 50s. Southwesterly flow returns Wednesday as the gradient tightens in response to an approaching cold front. This front is forecast to push through the area Thursday, with breezy northwesterly winds ushering in a cooler and drier air mass in its wake. A few showers will be possible ahead of this front, but meaningful rainfall accumulation is not expected. Highs are forecast to fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s this weekend in the wake of the front with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. If the front is as strong as currently forecast, there may be some frost possible over the weekend and a low to medium chance of freezing temperatures across our far northern SE AL and SW GA counties Saturday night. A gradual warming trend is expected to start out next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 VFR conditions generally prevail through the TAF period with light westerly winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 139 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Light to moderate offshore winds with dry weather expected to last into mid week. On Thursday and Friday, northwest winds are expected to increase to advisory-level as a cold front pushes through the area with gusts near 30 knots expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 139 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 A dry airmass will continue through the middle of the week. Winds will remain light through Wednesday, then a cold front will blow through on Thursday with an increase in winds for Thursday and Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 219 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026 Given the dry conditions expected over the next week, there are currently no flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 79 56 76 57 / 0 0 20 0 Panama City 76 58 75 63 / 0 0 20 0 Dothan 76 52 75 53 / 0 0 10 0 Albany 76 52 74 54 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 78 53 76 54 / 0 0 20 0 Cross City 81 59 79 58 / 0 0 10 0 Apalachicola 75 60 74 63 / 0 0 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285133 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:40 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 230 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry & seasonable weather continues through mid-week with a good amount of sunshine. Temperatures range from the the 30s-lower 40s overnight to upper 50s in the afternoons. - Monitoring another storm Friday, although there remains high uncertainty in exact timing and storm track. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry & seasonable weather continues through mid-week with a good amount sunshine. Temperatures range from the the 30s- lower 40s overnight to upper 50s in the afternoons. Dry westerly flow continues through the middle of the week under zonal flow at the mid levels, sandwiched between a surface low over eastern Canada and high pressure over the southeast U.S. Not much change in the airmass overhead with 925 mb temps in the 6-8C range Tue/Wed. Some lingering moisture in the mid/upper levels moves through early leading to increased cloudcover this morning, but drying out/clearing up by the afternoon with plenty of sun. This continues Wednesday though we`ll start to see some moisture/increasing cloudcover filtering in later in the day Wednesday. Altogether, should see high temperatures each day topping out in the mid to upper 50s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Monitoring another storm Friday, although there remains high uncertainty in exact timing and storm track. The latest round of ensemble guidance continues to show large uncertainty in the development of a potential storm as we head into the late week/weekend, especially within the track of the low. While all guidance continues to indicate paths anywhere from Maryland to Nova Scotia, the ECMWF and Canadian ensembles (and their AI ensembles) have trended towards the 40N/70W benchmark or slightly south while the GFS ensemble shows tracks closer towards the southern New England coast. Despite the uncertainty in track, most guidance has indicated the low deepening into the mid 990mbs by early Friday morning as well as 850mb temperatures dropping to below freezing across southern New England by Friday evening, supporting chances for some snow to mix into the region Friday and Friday night across the higher elevation regions. Probabilities continue to indicate only a 30-50% chance for 1"+ of snow in the higher terrain, with the highest chances along the eastern slopes of the Berkshires, and less than 20% probability for 3" or more. As mentioned by previous forecasters, those probabilites assume a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio, and unless we get really heavy precipitation rates (highly unlikely), those 10:1 SLR accumulations would likely be lower with wetter snow characterization being more favored. Any winter weather impacts in the higher elevations are likely to be very limited to nil, and this is reflected by low probabilities of Minor winter storm impacts in the Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index. Heading into the second half the weekend, the low will push further into Atlantic Canada and high pressure begins to build over the Mid- Atlantic region, bringing a return to blustery and dry conditions to southern New England for the start of the next work week. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update... VFR conditions continue through the middle of the week despite some scattered to broken mid level cloudiness at times. W winds may gust on the order of 15-25 knots at times, mainly during the daylight hours...although the Cape/Islands may see gusts linger into the overnight period. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/... Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance FZRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. RA. Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA, chance SN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA, chance SN. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Wednesday night...High confidence. Westerly wind gusts of 20-25 knots will persist at times into early Wed with a second surge late of wind late Tue night behind a cold front. Therefore...have continued a Small Craft Advisory for many waters into Tue and even early Wed for our outer-waters before things finally diminish. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/... Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain, slight chance of thunderstorms. Friday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Rain. Friday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Rain likely. Saturday: Strong winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain likely. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ231- 251. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ232>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ250- 254>256. && $$ |
| #1285132 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 226 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 200 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers will remain possible through the middle of the week. Some thunderstorm development will also be possible on Wednesday afternoon. An isolated strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out mainly across the Lake Okeechobee region during this time frame. - A strong cold front will push through the region on Thursday night into Friday morning. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible out ahead of the front. - Behind the front, much cooler and drier air will push into the region for the upcoming weekend along with breezy conditions as high pressure builds in from the north. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 200 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Weak mid level ridging will gradually move eastward today in response to a fast moving shortwave which will move towards the lower Mississippi Valley tonight before moving across the Northern Gulf coast and into Northern Florida as Wednesday progresses. At the surface, high pressure will gradually push into the western Atlantic today and it will continue to pull further away from the region tonight into Wednesday. While plenty of drier air will remain in tact across the mid to upper levels of the atmospheric column, lower level moisture will continue to filter in over the region as a light east to southeasterly surface wind flow continues today. This will help to keep PWATs generally between 1.4 and 1.6 inches area wide today with most of this moisture residing in the lower portion of the column. While most of the region will remain dry today, this lower level moisture will be just enough to have the potential to spark off some isolated shower activity mainly due sea breeze interactions later in the afternoon. Any shower that does develop today will be low topped, however, a brief heavy downpour cannot be entirely ruled out with any stronger shower that is able to take advantage of additional forcing from mesoscale boundary collisions. High temperatures today will generally range from the lower to mid 80s along the east coast and Lake Okeechobee region to the upper 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida. The aforementioned shortwave that will be pushing across the Northern Gulf coast and into Northern Florida on Wednesday will stay well off to the north, however, it will help to shift the mid level wind flow to more of a southwesterly direction. At the same time, it will help to introduce some cooler air aloft (500mb temps of -8 to -10C) over the region which will help to create some steeper lapse rates especially up towards the Lake Okeechobee region which will be closer to the shortwave. As the surface high pulls further away, winds at the surface will remain rather light, however, the synoptic flow will gradually veer to more of a southerly direction as the day progresses. As deeper layer moisture advects into the region, this could create the opportunity for higher chances of shower and thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening hours. With a southwesterly steering flow in place, afternoon convection will favor the interior/Lake Okeechobee region as well as portions of the east coast metro areas. The main forcing mechanism for initial convective development will still be the sea breeze boundary collisions. While strong thunderstorm development chances will still remain on the lower end, with the colder air aloft and the additional instability in place some isolated strong thunderstorm activity cannot be ruled out especially where mesoscale boundary interactions take place. The stronger storms would be capable of producing gusty winds, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and heavy downpours. The best chances of stronger thunderstorm activity on Wednesday would tend to favor the Lake Okeechobee region as that is where the colder temperatures will be aloft closer to the actual shortwave. High temperatures on Wednesday will generally rise into the lower to mid 80s, however, upper 80s are possible over Southwest Florida mainly south of Alligator Alley. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 200 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 The weather pattern starts to change heading into Thursday and Friday as a series of strong mid level shortwaves push across the Midwest Wednesday night and then into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast for Thursday and Friday. Mid level troughing will extend well down to the south into the Gulf and over the Southeastern part of the county as well as the Florida Peninsula during this time frame. At the surface, an area of low pressure will dive across the Midwest and into the Mid Atlantic states on Thursday before gradually pushing off the New England Coastline Thursday night into Friday. The cold front associated with this intensifying system will extend southwestward through the Southeastern States on Thursday and then across the Florida Peninsula Thursday night into Friday. Out ahead of this frontal boundary, the pressure gradient will increase across South Florida on Thursday as winds veer to a southwesterly direction. This could create breezy and gusty conditions across the area during this time frame. The latest guidance trends seems to be leaning towards a faster frontal passage across the region which would occur later Thursday night into early Friday morning. With guidance trending towards the faster and more progressive solution, shower activity will be more scattered in nature out ahead of the front from Thursday into early Friday morning. This also would suggest chances for thunderstorm development will remain rather low as the best dynamics and instability associated with the system will be located well off to the northeast of the region. High temperatures on Thursday will generally range from around 80 across the Lake Okeechobee region to the lower to mid 80s further to the south. Behind the front, winds will gradually shift and increase out of the northwest across the region for the rest of Friday. This will allow for strong cold and dry air advection to take place especially heading into Friday afternoon as strong high pressure begins to build in from the north. This area of high pressure will keep dry conditions in place through the upcoming weekend and it will usher in the coolest airmass of the fall season so far. Cold air advection will continue to take place through the first part of the weekend before winds start to shift and become more northeasterly on Sunday. Before the northeasterly wind shift, low temperatures could drop into the 50s across most areas on Friday night into Saturday morning, and then again on Saturday night into Sunday morning. High temperatures on Saturday may only reach the upper 60s along and north of Alligator Alley due to the strong cold air advection while areas south of Alligator Alley see high temperatures in the lower 70s during this time frame. High temperatures on Sunday will start to moderate as the winds become northeasterly and cold air advection comes to an end. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Light and variable winds will continue through 16z before increasing out of the ESE and will range between 5 to 10 kts through the afternoon. Some isolated showers are possible this afternoon mainly across the interior and they should stay away from the terminals. At KAPF, light winds this morning will increase out of the SW after 18z as a Gulf breeze develops. && .MARINE... Issued at 200 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 A gentle to moderate easterly breeze will gradually shift and become more southerly heading towards the middle of the week. Isolated to scattered showers will remain possible today, however, chances of showers and thunderstorms will start to increase on Wednesday especially across the Atlantic waters. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less through the middle of the week. A strong cold front will gradually approach the local waters on Thursday before pushing through the region during the end of the week. Behind the front, hazardous marine conditions may develop across the Atlantic and Gulf waters for the end of the week as winds and seas increase. && .BEACHES... Issued at 200 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 84 74 85 72 / 10 10 40 10 West Kendall 85 73 85 72 / 10 10 30 10 Opa-Locka 85 73 86 71 / 10 10 40 20 Homestead 85 74 85 72 / 10 10 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 83 73 84 71 / 20 10 40 20 N Ft Lauderdale 84 73 84 71 / 20 10 30 20 Pembroke Pines 86 72 86 71 / 10 10 40 20 West Palm Beach 83 72 84 70 / 10 10 40 20 Boca Raton 83 73 84 70 / 20 10 30 20 Naples 85 72 84 72 / 10 10 10 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285131 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:27 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 212 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections have been updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected through Thursday. Colder conditions this weekend. - 2) Frost/freeze conditions are possible Friday night through Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected through Thursday. Colder conditions this weekend. Early Morning: High pressure prevails with light/calm sfc winds in place under clear skies, favoring moderate/strong radiational cooling across the area. Latest satellite imagery and sfc obs indicate shallow ground fog reducing vsbys to below 1 mile across spots in Charleston and Berkeley Counties, which is also supported by guidance through predawn hours. However, condensation pressure deficits are not all that impressive, suggesting fog to remain shallow and patchy through early morning, although there could be a temporary period of reduced vsbys around daybreak as fog begins to lift/mix out post sunrise through 8-9 AM this morning. Greatest chances for fog should occur near streams/rivers/ponds/marsh areas. Fog could impact parts of the Charleston Metro Area before dissipating this morning. Today and Wednesday: High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across the Southeast United States, supporting dry conditions and above normal temperatures, despite an increase in mid- high clouds through mid-week. Highs should generally peak in the mid- upper 70s each afternoon, although should remain a few degrees cooler along the beaches. Low temps will be dependent on how much mid-high cloud remains across the local area during overnight periods. However, latest guidance suggests lows to trend slightly warmer tonight (upper 40s inland to mid-upper 50s near the coast) and Wednesday night (low 50s inland to upper 50s/around 60 near the coast) as a light southwesterly wind develops along the edge of high pressure becoming more centered offshore across the western Atlantic. Thursday: Aloft, a mid-upper trough over the Midwest will advance east across the Appalachians early, helping push a cold front toward the local area late day into the early overnight period. Ahead of the front, a breezy southwesterly wind is anticipated with gusts near 25-30 mph during peak heating hours. Afternoon highs will remain above normal for one last day this week, generally peaking in the mid-upper 70s. The front is anticipated to shift through the local area late day, then offshore during the evening, remaining mostly dry for all areas. However, h5 shortwave energy traversing across minimal low-lvl moisture could result in a few light showers as the front progresses across the region. At this time, a dry forecast is advertised. Strong cold air advection begins post fropa, leading to noticeably cooler lows in the low-mid 40s inland to around 50 at the beaches during predawn hours Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2: Frost/freeze conditions are possible Friday night through Sunday night. Friday: Cold air advection (CAA) behind the front begins, starting the trend of cooler temperatures into and throughout the weekend. After a cooler start to the day (lower 40s inland up into the lower 50s along the coast) temperatures look to max out in the lower to mid 60s across the region. In addition, breezy west-northwesterly winds gusting 20 to 25 mph will certainly make it feel like fall outside, so be sure to at least grab a jacket heading out on Friday. With the cold air continuing to funnel down into the region, Friday night into Saturday will be our first night where concerns for frost formation return to the area, though wind speeds continue to remain high enough to keep concerns on the lower end for now. A renewed push of cooler air on the leading edge of a surface high pressure, combined with light overnight winds and clear skies, will likely lead to strong radiational cooling setup into Sunday morning. This is expected to bring the highest chances for frost/freeze. Another chance for frost/freeze returns into Monday morning as cold temperatures linger. Nov 10 01z NBM 10km neighborhood probabilities for emergency management warming shelter planning: Friday Night/Saturday Morning: Inland Areas Coastal Corridor Temps 35 degrees or colder: 20-50% 5% Temps 32 degrees or colder: 5-20% <5% Temps 30 degrees or colder: <5% <5% Saturday Night/Sunday Morning: Inland Areas Coastal Corridor Temps 35 degrees or colder: 60-80% 10-40% Temps 32 degrees or colder: 30-50% <5% Temps 30 degrees or colder: 10-20% <5% Sunday Night/Monday Morning: Inland Areas Coastal Corridor Temps 35 degrees or colder: 20-40% 5-10% Temps 32 degrees or colder: 10-20% 5-10% Temps 30 degrees or colder: 5-20% <5% Frost Advisories, Freeze Watches and Freeze Warnings may eventually be needed, especially for areas roughly inland of US-17 in the Lowcountry and I-95 in Southeast Georgia. Detailed information on first freeze dates for the area can be found online at: https://www.weather.gov/media/chs/climate/AverageFirstLastFreezeDates.pdf && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At CHS/JZI: Periods of MVFR/IFR vsbys are possible through 13Z Wednesday due to shallow ground fog. Vsbys could be reduced below 1 SM around daybreak as any fog lifts/dissipates. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail by around 13Z through 06Z Wednesday. At SAV, VFR conditions are expected through 06Z Wednesday, although a brief period of shallow ground fog could impact the terminal around daybreak this morning. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR during the daytime, with isolated to scattered visibility restrictions possible during the late overnight into early morning hours on both Tuesday and Wednesday. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: High pressure will dominate the weather pattern leading to rather quiet marine conditions. South/southwest winds up to 10-15 kt today should become more west tonight as high pressure is centered more offshore. Seas will range between 2-3 ft. Surface high pressure will continue across the Southeast U.S. through Wednesday, bringing a light to perhaps gentle breeze. Seas will be 2-3 ft within 20 nm and 3-4 ft for the 20-60 nm waters. Winds increase out of the southwest Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front, becoming gusty to near 30 knots. Likewise, wind-driven seas will build. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for our waters starting Thursday afternoon. Winds shift to become out of the west-northwest overnight into Friday, with a brief period of weakening winds during the morning/afternoon before wind speeds pick up again. Winds decrease below Small Craft Thresholds Saturday morning/afternoon, with the northwesterly winds ushering out the 6 feet waves around the same time. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285130 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 126 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Discussions updated. Low temps over the weekend have decreased some, bringing a potential widespread freeze into the picture away from the coast on Saturday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm afternoon temperatures will continue with low rain chances ahead of next cold front on Thursday. 2) A big cool down expected Friday into the weekend with frost/freeze conditions possible. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm afternoon temperatures will continue with low rain chances ahead of next cold front on Thursday. After a chilly start, expect high temps today in the mid-upper 70s amidst dry deep-layer westerly flow. Low temperatures will rebound through midweek as moisture gradually returns from the southwest ahead of next system. The digging mid to upper trough will aid in an increase in some clouds through midweek and will support some gusty winds and a chance of light showers on Thursday as it pushes a cold front through. KEY MESSAGE 2...A big cool down expected Friday into the weekend with frost/freeze conditions possible. After a significant mid-upper trough pushes a cold front through on Thursday, breezy west to northwest winds will usher in considerably cooler and drier air for the weekend. Confidence is increasing for multiple nights featuring widespread 30s for overnight lows and the potential for a widespread freeze is also increasing on Saturday night. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High confidence in prevailing VFR conditions and calm winds through sunrise. Low confidence remains regarding shallow ground fog which may cause a brief MVFR restriction early this morning, but confidence is not high enough to explicitly mention in the TAF. Otherwise, expect light and variable winds this morning to become prevailing southwesterly at inland terminals and southerly at the coastal terminals with increasing high cirrus. Extended outlook... VFR through at least Wednesday night. MVFR cigs may develop Thursday morning ahead of a strong cold front but confidence remains low. VFR to follow later Thursday into the weekend. && .MARINE... Mostly benign marine conditions will continue into late Wednesday with southwest to west winds mostly 10 kts or less. Winds should increase starting Wednesday night ahead of a cold front with elevated/gusty west to northwest winds behind the front on Thursday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are now possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as well as on Friday. Steady west to northwest winds continue through Saturday, although speeds and seas may be just shy of criteria. Seas in the 1-2 ft range in the nearshore waters and 2-3 ft in the 20-60 nmi waters will continue through Wednesday before increasing Wednesday night. Seas peak on Thursday with wave heights in the 2-5 ft range in the coastal waters and 5-7 ft range in the 20-60 nmi waters before subsiding somewhat on Friday. An easterly swell will be a dominant contributor to the wave spectrum through Wednesday with a period between 9 and 11 seconds before wind waves become the primary contributor Wednesday night through Saturday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285129 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:30 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1221 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1220 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 - Low to medium rain chances (20-40%) will continue through Veteran`s Day morning - A cold front will push through Thursday brining the next shoot of cooler mornings through Friday night - Coastal Flood Advisory this morning && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1220 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Shower activity will slowly taper through the overnight hours with the loss of daytime heating as our mid/upper-level trough continues to elongate across the state and advects drier air from the southwest. A surface high currently over the northern Gulf will progress east as we go into Tuesday, which will allow a brief southerly to southeasterly return flow across our area. This, in combination with enhanced mid/upper-level support associated with our trough and higher surface moisture levels, will allow for continued rain chances as we go into Tuesday. While not as quite as high as previous days, PWAT values will remain elevated closer to the coastline (1.6-1.8" range, which will support brief periods of locally heavier rainfall with any stronger storm, while inland locations have lower PWAT values (1.1-1.5") and thus inland locations will have lower rainfall amounts. Additional rainfall through Tuesday evening of 0.5-1 inches are possible across the Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains with 1-2 inches closer to the Coastal Bend. Lower rain chances (20-30%) will exist early Wednesday morning along the coast as the main forcing associated with the trough moves east and dry air filters in. Our next cold front looks to arrive sometime Thursday bringing cooler temperatures and lower humidity, but model discrepancies on exact timing and intensity do remain at this time. We will have a better grasp on exact details oncer there is better agreement on model consensus. Nonetheless, cooler and drier conditions will prevail through Friday. Another mid-level trough looks to dig across the Southwestern US/northwestern Mexico this weekend bringing the next chance for rain. The overall risk for minor coastal flooding will continue through this morning. P-ETSS guidance forecasts water levels reaching near 1.7 ft above MSL through the upcoming tide cycles but with the lack of higher wave periods, not sure there`ll be enough of a push to create enough runup to cause additional concerns. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 MVFR/IFR ceilings continue across the Brush Country, with generally MVFR to briefly VFR conditions across the Coastal Plains. Expect conditions to be MVFR/IFR across the entire region through the TAF period. Lingering showers could also drop visibility to MVFR/IFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 1220 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Winds become variable and light to gentle (BF 2-3) through Wednesday ahead of the next cold front that will move through on Thursday. Behind the frontal passage, a moderate to fresh northerly breeze develops that wanes by Friday morning. Daily light rain chances continue through Wednesday before clearing out with the front on Thursday through Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1220 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Recent rainfalls and additional rain chances through Tuesday will continue to keep the fire risk low through the next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 72 64 77 63 / 50 40 10 0 Victoria 70 60 76 59 / 40 40 10 0 Laredo 71 63 77 63 / 20 10 0 0 Alice 69 60 75 59 / 50 40 10 0 Rockport 75 64 77 63 / 40 30 20 0 Cotulla 69 59 76 59 / 30 0 0 0 Kingsville 72 62 77 61 / 50 40 10 0 Navy Corpus 74 68 76 68 / 60 30 20 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM CST early this morning for TXZ245-342>347-442-443-447. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285128 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 114 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Near-normal temperatures through Thursday, turning colder Friday and over the weekend. - Little in the way of rain expected through the period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1244 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Significant changes to the U/L pattern over the next several days. Quasi-zonal flow currently across the CONUS will rapidly transition to a high amplitude pattern by the end of the week with a cut-off low near the Pacific northwest and another over the Great Lakes, with a sharp ridge between the two. Southern stream flow will undercut the overall flow across central Mexico, the southern Gulf, and south Florida. Over the weekend, both of the cut-offs will open up and lift out to the northeast allowing the southern stream flow to shift poleward establishing itself across the southern tier of the U.S. Early next week, the next strong upstream disturbance will dig over the western U.S. and induce downstream ridging through the Plains, with potentially a southern stream disturbance moving across the Florida peninsula, although confidence is currently low in the extended portion of the forecast. At the surface, weak high pressure over the western Atlantic will extend over the Florida peninsula with a weak gradient in place across the region today. A weak relatively dry frontal boundary will sink south across the area Tuesday night and will stall across the central Florida peninsula on Wednesday with only a slight chance of a shower. Overall, benign conditions through Thursday with periods of high cloudiness over the forecast area associated with the southern stream jet. Temperatures will run near climatic normals each day. As the U/L pattern amplifies late in the week, an associated cold front will push across west central and southwest Florida Thursday night and Friday with a slight chance of showers across the southern forecast area in region of best available moisture. Much colder drier air will advect over the forecast area in the wake of the front Friday and into the weekend with temperatures expected to be about 10 degrees below climatic normals. Potential Friday and Saturday night for some inland portions of the nature coast to drop into the upper 30s. As heights rise over the forecast area early next week and easterly flow off the Atlantic modifies the boundary layer, temperatures will recover rather quickly returning back near climatic normals. High cloudiness possible each day as jet cirrus associated with the southern stream advects over the region, and will have to monitor the potential for shower/thunderstorm activity associated with a southern stream disturbance that could move across the peninsula. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with some high broken CIGs developing on Tuesday around 250. && .MARINE... Issued at 1244 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Light winds and rather benign conditions are expected on the waters through Thursday. A cold front will push across the waters Thursday night and Friday with increasing north to northwest winds, but should remain below cautionary levels. Over the weekend, winds will shift to the east and northeast. Winds and seas may increase early next week ahead of an area of low pressure, however, confidence is low in the extended portion of the forecast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1244 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 83 70 82 68 / 0 0 0 10 FMY 86 71 85 70 / 10 10 20 30 GIF 85 69 85 65 / 0 10 10 10 SRQ 83 70 81 70 / 0 0 20 10 BKV 84 65 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 81 71 79 70 / 0 0 0 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1285127 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:51 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1145 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cloudy and cool through Wednesday with some chances of mainly light rain. - Cold front is expected Wednesday night followed by drier cooler weather for the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 A mid-upper level ridge will continue to move eastward across Texas through late Tuesday, while a surface coastal trough meanders over the Lower to Mid Texas Coast and the northwestern Gulf waters. Rain chances will taper down overnight with areas along and south of I-10 still expected to have light to occasionally moderate showers and/or drizzle. The low temperatures will be a tad bit cooler tonight, ranging in the lower 50s for the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region, the mid to upper 50s over the rest of the inland portions, and the upper 50s to lower 60s along the coast. On Tuesday, isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast, with the higher PoPs focused over areas in and around Matagorda Bay - closest to the influence of the coastal trough. Temperatures will be warmer with highs rising into the lower and mid 70s on Tuesday and generally between the mid 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday night for much of the inland portions. Rain chances persist on Tuesday night as another mid level disturbance moves overhead. Although we could expected additional showers and isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday, the chances are lower as the coastal trough begins to move southeastward just before moving into the Upper Texas Coast. The best chance for rain will continue to be over areas south of I-10, closest to the trough and where the higher moisture amounts reside. Conditions will warm up a little further on Wednesday, as warm moist air from the Gulf converges over Southeast Texas. Look for highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s areawide. There is a signal for a weak front (possibly a backdoor front) moving through sometime Wednesday night or early Thursday along with drier air pushing in from the north and northeast in its wake. Not a whole lot of "cooling" happening on the forecast behind this front other than cooler nights. The highs over the second half of the week remain in the mid to upper 70s but the overnight lows will drop back down into the upper 40s to mid 50s inland for Thursday and Friday night. Rain chances could return sometime late Saturday and Sunday as moisture returns to the area ahead of another mid level trough and surface coastal trough. Cotto && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 The data continues to trend away from widespread sub VFR conditions tonight. Therefore, we removed the MVFR TEMPO groups and opted for low-end VFR prevailing conditions through the overnight. However, we cannot rule out localized MVFR cigs/vis. Additional rounds of -SHRA/ SHRA are expected later this morning and afternoon, primarily from IAH south to the coast. Guidance is suggesting a more robust mid- level disturbance could approach the region from the southwest Tuesday evening. Confidence is relatively low regarding rainfall coverage, but there is some potential for heavier SHRA, and even a TSRA or two, as the system moves through Tuesday evening / night, with the highest probs of SHRA/TSRA being from IAH down to the coast. For now, we only hint at this via VCSH near the end of the TAF period. Self && .MARINE... Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 Light to moderate east to northeast winds and seas of 1-3 feet are expected through Wednesday. Winds over Matagorda Bay and adjacent waters have been mostly between 15-20 kts with higher gusts. Caution Flags are now in effect for that region through Wednesday afternoon. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue through at least late Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to move through late Wednesday night or early Tuesday morning, leading to moderate offshore winds and elevated seas of up to 5 feet on Thursday. Caution flags will likely be needed. Winds relax and seas subside Thursday night into Friday. East to southeast winds return during the upcoming weekend along with increasing rain chances ahead of another cold frontal passage. Cotto && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 53 74 57 79 / 20 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 55 77 61 79 / 30 30 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 63 75 67 75 / 20 20 40 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Tuesday afternoon for GMZ330-350-370. && $$ |
| #1285126 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1235 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Frost advisory continues overnight across the Coastal Plain. Aviation Disco updated for 06Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Frost concerns overnight and Tue morning. Gradual warm up with dry conditions through mid week. 2) Approaching storm system near the end of the week will bring well below normal temperatures, breezy conditions, and a chance of rain. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Tonight still looks like the best candidate so far for fairly widespread frost, especially west of NC 17 as skies remain clear and winds inland will likely be calm with high pressure building overhead tonight. As is typical in these environments, deterministic guidance for lows is not aggressive enough, so blended in NBM 10th percentile and the previous forecast to keep forecast lows into the mid to upper 30s. Could see a few well sheltered areas make a run towards the low 30s but this should be rather isolated. Frost Advisory continues for areas along and west of Hwy 17 overnight. Tuesday night is forecast to remain slightly warmer as high cirrus is forecast to stream into ENC from the west preventing good radiational cooling Tue night limiting frost potential. So while it is unlikely tomorrow night it`s not completely out of the question for inland sheltered spots. KEY MESSAGE 2...Not much has changed with this weekends system as there remains good agreement amongst guidance for increasingly unsettled weather across the eastern CONUS. A complex mid-level low will deepen over the region and steer multiple shortwaves over the Mid-Atlantic. While there are still some differences in exact details that will need to be hashed out in the coming days it remains likely that a complex low will sweep across the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic Wed into Thursday with a coastal low developing off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thurs into Friday with this coastal low then deepening offshore as it meanders around the the Northeast this weekend though its intensity and track remain uncertain. Probabilistic guidance favors a northern track for these areas of low pressure, which would keep heavier precipitation away from our area though isolated to widely scattered showers wouldn`t be out of the question. Either way not expecting much QPF from any shower that impacts the area Thurs into Fri before we dry out. The biggest threat with this aforementioned low will be the associated gusty winds. In general, probabilities for a period of 20-30 mph W-NW winds and gusts potentially in excess of 35-45 mph Fri into Sat remain high. If this is realized, at least some coastal flooding concerns could arise soundside along the Outer Banks. Given spread of guidance, it is too early to state the potential magnitude of impacts. Stay tuned for future updates. Behind the system, unseasonably cool air will flood into the area knocking highs down into the 50s for the weekend and offer the first real opportunity for a freeze Sat night and Sun night. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 0030est...High pressure will gradually build overhead tonight bringing mainly VFR conditions to all terminals. Strong radiational cooling expected overnight with clear skies and light to calm winds opening the door for a ground fog and frost threat if there`s enough moisture left in the lower levels. Brief patchy fog will be possible at all terminals early Tue morning. Have continued 00Z TAF`s tempo mention of MVFR VIS due to fog with the 3sm mention for PGV. Greenville briefly fogged up to IFR last night/yesterday morning so the 3sm shows that possibility of lower VIS here, but not enough confidence to include IFR explicitly in TAFs. MRH obs currently shows that this site has decoupled. Fog will also be possible here, but MRH has the best chance of getting some mixing overnight being along the coast. Increasing high clouds expected Tue afternoon. Patchy fog will again be possible Tue night/Wed morning. Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are forecast through Wed as high pressure and a much drier airmass remain in place. Approaching storm system at the end of the week brings an increase in shower chances, some gusty winds, and sub-VFR conditions. && .MARINE... High pressure has begun to build in from the west behind a departing surface trough giving way to light winds and subsiding seas overnight and early Tue. Latest obs show variable winds 5-10 kt with seas mainly 2-4 ft, 3-5 ft further offshore. Light winds becoming SW 5-15 kt this afternoon with seas 2-4 ft. Outlook: Decent boating conditions expected through Wednesday. Attention then turns to a coastal low likely to develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday. Although magnitude of impacts remains uncertain, trend has been for stronger winds and the probability for strong SCA and Gales remains elevated, especially for the waters from Raleigh Bay north. Timing and intensity remains a point of uncertainty, so mariners are encouraged to continue monitoring future forecasts. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NCZ029-044-079- 080-090>092-193-198. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285125 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:39 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1232 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1232 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 - A high risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at Central Florida`s Atlantic beaches today. Please stay out of the ocean. - The next chance (20-40%) of showers and storms arrives on Wednesday afternoon. There is a low, conditional threat for a couple of strong storms with wind gusts up to 50 mph and coin- sized hail. Widespread heavy rain is not expected. - We still anticipate the coolest air so far this fall to arrive in Central Florida from Friday night through early Sunday. Wind chills of 40-45 degrees are forecast Saturday and Sunday morning from Greater Orlando northward. - Extensive flooding continues along the St. Johns River due to exceptional rainfall in the upper reaches of the basin last week. Heed the advice of local officials. The latest river forecasts are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1232 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 -----------Synoptic Overview----------- The weather pattern near Florida has changed little over the last 24 hours. A weak subtropical jet extends from Texas to Georgia, south of a quasi-zonal polar jet passing over the Northern U.S. The air is still quite dry, especially from 850-700 mb. Slightly higher moisture resides near and offshore of Southwest Florida. A ripple of energy in the subtropical jet is still expected to eject from Texas into the Southeast later today through Wednesday. The jet stream configuration will become slightly more favorable for synoptic-scale lift during this period. Some of the moisture just southwest of the area is forecast to move northward over the next 48 hours, but guidance still disagrees on overall moisture return and available instability on Wednesday. The ingredients remain in place for the well-advertised pattern change late this week. As blocking develops over the northern latitudes of N America, significant amplification of the longwave pattern will begin late on Wednesday. Eventually, a deep trough will gather over the Eastern U.S. by Thursday. A vigorous shortwave digging through the developing trough will promote surface cyclogenesis over the Ohio Valley. As the low moves toward the Delmarva Peninsula, it is expected to force a strong cold front toward Florida. The front should arrive late Thursday and pass the entire district by Friday morning. Ensembles are in excellent agreement with pattern evolution through at least Saturday, when PWAT (moisture) values fall to 30-50% of normal and 925 mb temperatures dip to +6 to +10 deg C. This will represent the most significant continental air mass intrusion into the Florida Peninsula so far this autumn. Guidance slowly moves the large trough eastward this weekend, with the lowest 500 mb heights moving off the Northeast U.S. coast by late Sunday. Surface high pressure will follow in its wake, its center remaining well north of Florida. Once the high moves east of our longitude, onshore flow should redevelop on Sunday, allowing temperature moderation to begin. Guidance quickly breaks down the high-latitude block next week, allowing the flow to become progressive across the U.S. Therefore, the upcoming cooldown this weekend is not expected to last long, and unsettled weather also may not wait too long to return. For example, just yesterday the ECMWF-AIFS ensemble was nearly alone with its indication of another shortwave within the subtropical jet reaching the northern Gulf in about a week. Cluster analysis now reveals that nearly half of physics-based members support this solution. -------Sensible Weather & Impacts------- Today - Tonight... Status-quo weather is favored for most of us on this Tuesday. Aside from some patchy morning fog, we expect partly sunny and warm weather today with highs in the low to mid 80s. Beaches will still be a concern, as the lingering swell continues to produce a high risk of numerous rip currents. Please stay out of the ocean. With subtle moisture return expected over South Florida today, we have introduced a small (20%) chance of showers near Lake Okeechobee this afternoon and evening. Most areas will stay dry through tonight, however. Wednesday - Thursday night... We`ll be keeping an eye on a disturbance approaching from the Gulf on Wednesday. Moisture will be increasing a bit, but the extent is in question, with significant disagreement in the guidance. This adds up to a 20-40% chance of afternoon and early evening showers and storms, with the highest coverage along the coast south of Cape Canaveral. A few models, led by the ECMWF, have ample instability in place. Others, such as the HRRR, are more stable. With moderate effective shear profiles, there is a conditional chance of a strong storm Wednesday afternoon. Gusty winds of 45-50 mph and coin-sized hail would be the primary hazards. On Thursday, breezy westerly winds are forecast to develop, with drier air mixing to the surface in the afternoon. Only isolated shower chances persist through Thursday night, and mostly over our southern communities. Rainfall amounts through Thursday night look rather light, with only a 1-in-10 chance of exceeding a half inch along the coast from Melbourne southward. The strong cold front will not arrive until Thursday night. Despite more cloud cover, highs on Wednesday should reach the low to mid 80s with upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday. Friday - Weekend... With the cold front quickly marching off to our south, winds turn northwesterly on Friday and Saturday and stay breezy from time to time. This will usher cooler and drier air into the area, with the coolest air arriving early Saturday. Under clearing skies, highs on Friday should range from the upper 60s to low 70s, but dip on Saturday into the mid to upper 60s. Lows Friday and Saturday nights will be chilly, in the mid/upper 40s except low 50s along the coast from Cape Canaveral and points southward. Our coldest wind chills, near and northwest of I-4, should reach the 40-45 degree range. There is still a 15-20% chance for wind chills to reach the upper 30s near and north of Greater Orlando, especially on Saturday morning. As winds turn onshore, Sunday looks a little milder by afternoon (low/mid 70s). Early Next Week... As brisk onshore flow becomes established and deepens, moisture should return. Combined with a potential disturbance approaching from the west, 20-40% shower chances reenter the picture by Monday or Tuesday. It`s too early to determine whether heavy rainfall may occur. Near-normal temperatures are forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1232 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 High pressure should drift across the local area over the next couple of days, with lighter winds and improved boating conditions. An upper-air disturbance should spark a few showers and storms on Wednesday, with isolated strong and gusty storms possible. Behind a strong cold front late Thursday, winds increase, and seas build on Friday. Hazardous boating conditions return from Friday through Saturday, especially offshore. Light/variable winds today, becoming onshore up to 10 kt along the coast by afternoon. Winds turn SSW up to 10 kt on Wednesday, then W 10-15 kt on Thursday. Fresh northwest winds develop Thu night into Friday, 15-25 kt early Friday morning. Another surge of fresh NW winds may occur Friday night and early Saturday. Seas 3-5 ft today, subsiding to 2-3 ft on Wed/Thu. Seas on Fri/Sat build to 3-4 ft nearshore, and up to 7 ft in the Gulf Stream. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1232 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Continued dry and mainly VFR. Will continue to monitor for patchy fog formation during the early morning, but confidence remains low. A weak pgrad remains in place, thus light/variable winds continue with transition onshore (5-10 kts) in the afternoon with sea breeze development. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1232 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Fire weather thresholds should remain out of reach through Friday. By Saturday, much drier air arrives over Central Florida. RH minima are forecast to fall to 35-40% over the interior from Osceola County northward, with northwest winds around 10 mph. Moisture slowly returns beginning Sunday into next week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1232 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 River flood warnings remain in effect for all St. Johns River forecast points (Cocoa, Geneva, Sanford, DeLand and Astor). River levels are forecast to continue holding steady or slowly rise over the next several days. Specifically, the river west of Cocoa (COCF1) is within Major Flood Stage, with other points within or forecast to reach Minor to Moderate flood stage. River forecasts out five days are issued twice daily by the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available online at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB. While a few storms may develop on Wednesday, widespread heavy rain is not forecast. There is a 10% chance of localized rainfall amounts exceeding 1/2" along the Space and Treasure Coasts. The next significant rain chance should then hold off until early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 81 65 82 62 / 0 0 20 0 MCO 83 69 83 65 / 0 10 20 10 MLB 82 69 83 65 / 0 10 30 20 VRB 83 69 85 66 / 10 10 40 20 LEE 83 67 82 62 / 0 0 10 0 SFB 84 68 83 63 / 0 0 20 0 ORL 83 69 83 65 / 0 10 20 10 FPR 82 68 84 65 / 10 10 40 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1285124 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:36 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1128 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1121 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 - Dry air and ongoing drought conditions will elevate fire spread concerns through Tuesday, and again at the end of the week. Residents in areas under burn bans should not conduct outdoor burning of any kind. Residents in areas without official burn bans should take extra precautions if burning outdoors. - A strong cold front will move through the area Thursday bringing potential for frost and the first freeze of the season for some areas mainly Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Friday) Issued at 1121 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 Overall the remains quiet with no major impacts expected through the remainder of the work week. Even with a decent cold front expected later this week the forecast will remain generally dry and the main forecast problem is on temps, RH, and any fire weather concerns. The s/w spinning in north TX along with the mid lvl jet running across southern TX and along the entire Gulf coast has led to just enough lift to squeeze out whatever moisture is available in the mid and upper levels to lead to some sprinkles and mostly virga this evening. As this disturbance tries to lift out of TX and across the Lower Ms Valley later today and overnight it may once again try to squeeze out a few light showers but most likely sprinkles and virga. Once it merges with the northern stream system and soon to be deep east coast L/W trough we will quickly move under northwest flow. Another stronger s/w embedded in the L/W trough will quickly surge down the Plains Wednesday and into northern portions of the Lower MS Valley Wednesday evening. This disturbance will help to deepen the trough across the eastern CONUS while also ushering a strong cold front across the region early Thursday. This will be a dry front but it will bring with it much drier and colder air. Cold air advection will begin Thursday but it will be slow however, it will actually continue into Friday evening. Thursday will be cooler but Friday will be noticeably cooler with morning lows in the lower 40s to lower 50s across much of the area and then highs on Friday likely remaining in the 60s for a good chunk of the area. High pressure will build in at the surface especially as we head into Friday night. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Monday night) Issued at 1121 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 Forecast still looks chilly heading into the weekend and perhaps finally a better chance for some rain early next week. Medium range guidance is in rather good agreement and has strong support from their ensemble means. Unable to make adjustments to the extended forecast at this time so there will be no deviations from the 01z NBM however it as it is just not coming in with operational values in the upper 30s finally for a few locations. This is at least better than what it was advertising yesterday morning but is still likely too warm for Saturday and Sunday morning, later forecasts will be able to adjust the forecast for those morning. As we head into the weekend the highly amplified pattern over the CONUS will continue to dominate the country. We will have the L/W trough control the eastern half of the CONUS and another broader trough over the west coast with a highly amplified ridge pinched in- between the two over the Plains. This pattern won`t stay in place for long though as a s/w rounding the west coast trough will try to erode away at the ridge while the eastern CONUS trough broadens out some and slides east. Late in the weekend the ridge will be over the area extending north into Canada still. As the previous forecaster mentioned a lot will hinge on the erosion of the ridge and the ridges have actually been a little stubborn while the models have tended to break them down to fast than what has actually occurred. With that the ridge likely blocks the s/w from lifting northeast out of the four corners region and with the mid lvl jet max still downstream of the s/w it will likely try to work east or east- southeast across the southern Plains and close off. This disturbance then tries to break through the ridge early next week over the Lower MS Valley before merging with the northern stream. At the sfc high pressure will dominate the area through Sunday morning and that will likely help to setup two rather chilly mornings across the region. Saturday morning it will be centered just off to the north with light winds through the boundary layer. Very dry conditions and what looks to be clear skies should set the stage for an efficient radiation cooling night. Latest MOS values are suggesting mid 30s now in the typical cold spots. The NBM10 finally seems to be catching on and in those typical cold spots is actually showing lows down into the lower 30s in a few locations but like was mentioned earlier deterministic NBM is well warmer. Saturday night may be just as good from a radiational cooling stand point with high pressure still dominating the area, very dry air in place along with light winds. The biggest unknown is clouds and that could really depend on how firm the ridge aloft holds but at this time it looks like the cloud cover increase should hold off till later in the day as the upper jet finally starts to nose in midday/afternoon Sunday. There is finally the next best chance for rain Monday. This is associated with that s/w that tries to erode and break through the ridge. Moisture will try to return ahead of it and if the ridge can break down we should see decent coverage of light rain but if the ridge holds rain may be more contained over the southwest and along the SELA coast. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 There are still no concerns through the forecast at any of the terminals with VFR conditions persisting. Winds will be LGT and VRB through Wednesday. /CAB/ && .MARINE... Issued at 1121 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 Benign conditions will persist through the middle of the week as the area remains under the southern periphery of a surface high. Early Thursday a strong cold front will enter the coastal waters and surge into the Gulf. Behind it strong northwest winds will quickly develop with hazardous conditions developing over the marine zones Thursday and likely persisting through Friday night. /CAB/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1121 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 Still anticipating a relatively large gradient in relative humidity across the area today with northern and especially northeastern areas of the outlook area forecast to see minimum values of 25 to 35 percent while coastal LA areas generally bottom out in the 35 to 45 percent range. Minimum relative humidities will increase Wednesday before drier air moves back in behind another cold front late this weekend and through the weekend. Rain chances remain low for at least the next week. As for fire weather concerns ht greatest benefit is winds will be very light today and Wednesday. However, KBDI values remain between 600-700 for the entire area and the combination of lower RH values and dry fuels could still lead to elevated fire weather concerns today. Hazardous fire weather conditions could develop once again Friday and Saturday behind the next front. /CAB/ && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285123 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:36 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1128 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 - A strong cold front pushes through the area on Thursday, bringing much cooler temperatures. Marine winds will strengthen behind the front along with building seas. - A light freeze is possible well inland late Friday night and Saturday night, roughly along and north of Highway 84. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 A weakening upper low over Texas breaks down to an open wave then is absorbed into a rather large upper trof that evolves over the eastern half of the CONUS Wednesday into Thursday. This latter feature will bring a strong cold front through the forecast area mainly from Thursday morning into the early afternoon. A gradual warming trend continues ahead of the approaching front along with improving deep layer moisture, sufficient to allow for isolated to scattered convection to develop over the southern portion of the area on Wednesday. Lows tonight range from the lower 40s well inland to near 50 at the coast then trend by Wednesday night to range from the lower 50s inland to near 60 at the coast. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 70s. The cold front ushers in much cooler and drier air, with lows by Friday night ranging from the lower 30s well inland to the lower 40s at the immediate coast. Lows Saturday night will be similar. This continues to look to have the potential to bring the first light freeze of the season to the northern portion of the area Friday night and Saturday night, roughly along and north of Highway 84. NBM probabilities for dropping below 32F are about 20-60% in this portion Friday night and 20-70% Saturday night, with the highest potential generally over northern Choctaw and northern Wilcox counties. Highs on Friday will be mostly in the lower to mid 60s, then highs on Saturday will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Temperatures begin to moderate on Sunday, with highs in the lower to mid 60s along with lows Sunday night ranging from the mid/upper 30s well inland to around 50 at the coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Wednesday with a moderate risk for Thursday. A low risk follows for Friday. /29 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 VFR conditions will prevail for the entire period. A batch of upper level clouds are pushing into the area, and accompanies by a few spots of virga evident on radar, though cloud bases should remain well above VFR categories. Otherwise, surface high pressure overspreading the area will lead to tranquil flying conditions with light and variable winds through Tuesday evening. KL/31 && .MARINE... Issued at 1058 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 Light northerly to northeasterly winds will continue today through early Tuesday, becoming very light and variable Tuesday afternoon as a high pressure system moves over the Gulf waters. A light northerly flow will resume by late Tuesday night shifting to light westerly Wednesday afternoon. This westerly flow will increase to moderate by late Wednesday night as a strong cold front approaches from the north, followed by a moderate to strong offshore flow Thursday and Friday in the wake of the cold front with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves/seas respond reaching 2-3ft for protected waters, 3-4ft for nearshore Gulf zones and 4-7 ft for outer Gulf zones. Headlines expected as we approach the end of the week. Winds and wave/seas taper going into next weekend. [LIX/Schlotz] && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 74 50 77 52 / 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 74 57 75 59 / 0 0 0 10 Destin 74 58 74 59 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 73 43 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 74 44 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 71 43 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 75 44 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285122 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:31 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1221 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 00z Aviation/TAF update. Marine...Small Craft Advisories have been cancelled. Frost Advisory issued for tonight in portions of interior southeast VA and NE NC. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1)Frost Advisory in effect tonight for south- central VA and interior portions of southeast VA and northeast NC. Dry and seasonably mild otherwise through mid-week. 2)A strong cold front brings chances for rain Thursday-Friday, but chances for appreciable rain is low. Much cooler temperatures follow behind the front. && .DISCUSSION... As of 320 AM EST Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Frost Advisory in effect tonight for south- central VA and interior portions of southeast VA and northeast NC. Dry and seasonably mild otherwise through mid-week. A dry cold front passed through the area earlier today and high pressure is building back in behind it. Latest obs show wind gusts 20-25mph west of the bay and 30mph+ over the Eastern Shore. Winds are forecast to quickly diminish after sunset becoming calm or near calm by 7pm. From there, temperatures should quickly drop off as clear skies and little to no wind provide ideal conditions for radiational cooling. Keeping this in mind, the forecast overnight lows undercut most of the guidance, since most models do not capture decoupling well enough. The FA is looking at lows in the mid 30s for most of the area and around 40 immediately near the coast. Would not be surprised if a few of the more isolated, rural locations were to drop to freezing. Frost is likely for interior portions of the area. The growing season has already ended for the western piedmont counties, so no advisory is needed there. Frost Advisories have been issued, though, for interior portions of southeast VA and northeast NC. Conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday look fairly nice with mild temperatures for mid- November. Highs will be around 70 each day. KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings chances for rain Thursday-Friday, but chances for appreciable rain is low. Much cooler temperatures follow behind the front. Guidance continues to signal an anomalously strong 500mb trough digging in over the east coast Thursday into the weekend. While there is some uncertainty in the positions of the upper level low and the positioning/track of associated sfc low pressure(s), there is confidence in the UL trough itself dipping as far south as the Gulf. Regarding sfc systems, the 12z suite of global models are leaning toward low pressure diving ESE out of the lower Great Lakes before developing a secondary low offshore. That kind of set up is likely to put the local area in the dry slot. This is corroborated by the QPF probs from the ensembles, which universally limit appreciable rainfall to our northern counties. Probs for QPF >0.1" are 50-60% along and north of I-64 at best. Probs for >0.5" are under 20% everywhere. What precip we do get should move in by Thursday afternoon and potentially continue through Friday along the coast. Highs Friday-Sunday will be a lot cooler with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. Gusty conditions will keep apparent temperatures even lower. Overnight lows near or below freezing will be possible each night. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1220 AM EST Tuesday... VFR conditions are noted across area terminals early this morning and will prevail through the 06z/10 TAF period. Cannot rule out patchy ground fog over interior VA and NE NC, but this would likely remain W and S of the terminals. Otherwise, mainly clear with light/variable winds through much of this morning, becoming SW ~10 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue through the middle of the week. Another cold front approaches from the west, with rain showers possible by later Thursday and Friday. Some short-lived sub-VFR conditions are possible with the frontal passage, along with some strong NW winds and markedly cooler conditions forecast behind the front for Friday and the weekend. && .MARINE... As of 654 PM EST Monday... Key Messages: - Calmer marine conditions return tonight and continue through Thursday. - Strong NW winds and elevated seas are possible by Friday into the weekend in the wake of a strong cold front, but confidence in details remains low. High pressure continues to nudge east this evening thus allowing the winds to become WNW ~5-10 kt. With the winds decreasing seas have rapidly lowered to 1-2ft across the bay and 2-4ft across the waters. These newest observations have allowed for the Small Craft Advisories to be canceled early for the bay and coastal waters. High pressure builds into the region tonight through Wednesday, before moving offshore Wednesday night into Thursday. Sub-SCA conditions are expected during this timeframe. There is a secondary weak, dry cold front that crosses the coast Tuesday night. A WSW wind increases to 10-15kt across the Ches. Bay and ocean ahead of this boundary Tuesday aftn and early evening, becoming N behind the front later Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. High pressure becomes centered over the area Wednesday with the wind becoming light and variable. Thursday, the winds become S-SW, as the high move offshore, with speeds around 10 kt. Seas subside to 2-3ft nearshore and 3-4ft offshore by Tuesday, and then 2-3ft for most of the local Atlantic zones by midweek. Waves in the Ches. Bay will be 1 to occasionally 2ft Tuesday through midweek. A low pressure system and a strong cold front will push across the region and move offshore Thursday night into Friday. This system will bring strong CAA over an extended period, which will allow for well mixing over the warmer water temperatures. Strong SCA conditions are likely with gale conditions possible. The latest model ensembles continue to show different possibilities for next weekend. The EPS members continue to show a secondary low pressure deepening immediately off the coast Friday night and pushing offshore Saturday, with 50-70% probs for gale forced gusts. Meanwhile, the GEFS does not show this solution and only a <10% of gale forced gusts. Local wind probs are currently showing a 30-50% chc of 34 kt gusts in the coastal waters, 50-70% chc in the ocean waters beyond 20 nm, and 10-30% chc in the Ches. Bay. Seas potentially build to 5-7ft in the coastal waters and 7-9ft beyond 20nm. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ012>014-030. VA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ079>081- 087>089-092-528-529. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285121 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:30 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1225 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1221 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across portions of South Florida through the early portion of the week. - Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase during the second half of the week as a strong cold front approaches and moves through the region. Behind the front, the coolest airmass of the season so far could push over the region by next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 200 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026 Weak mid level ridging in the Eastern Gulf will gradually move over the region today and into Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure centered off to the north will continue to slowly push eastward during this time frame. These two features will be the ones driving the weather pattern over South Florida through the early portion of the week. In general, rather light easterly winds will prevail across most areas today and Tuesday. This easterly wind flow will aid in lower level moisture advection during this time frame which will cause PWAT values to slowly and gradually rise across South Florida. While plenty of dry air will remain in place across the mid levels, there will be just enough lower level moisture in place to support a low end chance of shower development each afternoon. Shower chances will be mainly driven by the development of the sea breezes each afternoon. Any showers that do develop will remain low topped, however, some of the stronger shower activity will have the potential to produce brief heavy downpours, especially over areas where sea breeze and other mesoscale boundary collisions take place. High temperatures today and Tuesday will rise into the lower to mid 80s across most areas, however, upper 80s will be possible across portions of Southwest Florida each afternoon mainly along and south of Alligator Alley. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 316 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026 While the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will be the primary mechanism behind the prevailing weather pattern across South Florida this winter, the upcoming pattern later this week is a good reminder that it is not the only contributor to local climate variability. The combination of the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will result in the advection and progression of an amplified trough across the eastern United States with below average geopotential height and 500mb temperature anomalies gradually shifting from the Ohio River Valley into the Mid- Atlantic during the second portion of the week. As the mid to upper level trough axis slides eastward, efficient cold air advection (CAA) will advect a polar airmass (albeit one that was heavily modified in transit) into the southeastern United States. This is a important distinction from a conventional El Nino setup, which would favor the arrival of a Pacific airmass as opposed to an origination point in the Arctic circle. The gradual propagation of surface high pressure and lessening surface wind speeds is forecast to result in a northwesterly flow regime at the surface during the upcoming weekend, as a 1020-1025mb surface high gradually slides across the southeastern United States. While exact forecasted ambient temperature values will certainly fluctuate over the next several days, 2m temperature anomalies across South Florida are currently forecast to be roughly 10 to 15 degrees below average for this time of year during the upcoming weekend. Before we delve further into exact details for the upcoming cold snap and get ahead of ourselves, let`s rewind a bit to the mid-week period. By Wednesday, a zonal orientation of the sub-tropical jet stream is forecast to orient west to east across the northern Gulf as the axis of a negatively tilt trough gradually drops southward across the central United States. A shortwave out ahead of the main trough axis will remain to the north of South Florida as it quickly propagates across the southeastern United States. This will result in a veering of 500mb winds to a southwesterly component on Wednesday in tandem with cooling 500mb temperatures and steeper mid-level lapse rates. At the same time, South Florida is forecast to reside between two lobes of surface ridging (one located over the northern Gulf waters and one located to our east over the western Atlantic waters), which will result in light southerly to southwesterly background flow prevailing on Wednesday afternoon. This forecasted flow regime would favor inland locales of southeastern Florida and the Lake Okeechobee region with a caveat that brisk westerly winds aloft could result in convection drifting convection back towards the east coast during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Similar to the previous discussion, While chances for strong thunderstorm development will remain rather low, it cannot be entirely ruled out especially where mesoscale boundary collisions take place and maximized ascent occurs. The strongest thunderstorm activity could contain heavy downpours, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and gusty winds. High temperatures on Wednesday will generally rise into the lower to mid 80s across most areas, however, some upper 80s will be possible across portions of Southwest Florida. By Thursday, the subtropical and polar jet-streams are forecast to phase into a combined jet-streak across the southeastern United States. Upper level divergence associated with this dual phasing (right entrance region of the jet-streak) will result in the development of a surface low pressure system offshore of the Mid- Atlantic which is forecast to deepen in tandem with the synoptic injection of dynamics directly overhead. This strengthening low level feature is forecast to accelerate to the north but not before dragging an antecedent cold front southwards across the Florida Peninsula, Thursday night into Friday. A pressure gradient between the frontal boundary as well as a surface area of high pressure will result in breezy flow behind the frontal boundary as northwesterly surface winds enhance. While slight discrepancies still remain in ensemble and deterministic guidance (ECENS, GEFS, GFS, ECMWF), the main takeaway is that frontal boundary timing will dictate what transpires forecast wise on Friday. A quicker progression of the frontal boundary (which the ECMWF and ECENS has hinted at) will suppress instability across the region, which could hinder shower and thunderstorm development along the boundary as it moves across South Florida during the overnight hours. A slower progression may result in more diurnal heating out ahead of the boundary which could support a greater chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day on Friday. Cold air advection behind the frontal boundary will result in a comfortable and cool weekend across South Florida. Perfect for enjoying pumpkin spice beverages and anything cozy. While it remains to be seen if the current forecasted temperatures (low 50s across coastal southwestern Florida and upper 50s along the east coast) for Saturday and Sunday morning verify, the last time minimum temperatures below 60F were observed across South Florida was mid to late March of this year. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Light and variable winds will continue through 16z before increasing out of the ESE and will range between 5 to 10 kts through the afternoon. Some isolated showers are possible this afternoon mainly across the interior and they should stay away from the terminals. At KAPF, light winds this morning will increase out of the SW after 18z as a Gulf breeze develops. && .MARINE... Issued at 200 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026 A gentle to moderate east northeasterly breeze will gradually become more easterly as the early portion of the week progresses across most of the local waters. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters where winds may become more northwesterly this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 1 to 3 feet through the early portion of the week while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less. Some isolated to scattered shower activity will remain possible mainly over the Atlantic waters through the early portion of the week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 200 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026 A moderate risk of rip currents will continue for the Palm Beaches through the early portion of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 84 74 85 72 / 10 10 40 10 West Kendall 85 73 85 72 / 20 20 40 10 Opa-Locka 85 73 86 72 / 10 10 40 10 Homestead 84 74 85 73 / 20 10 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 83 73 84 72 / 10 10 40 20 N Ft Lauderdale 83 73 84 71 / 10 10 40 20 Pembroke Pines 85 73 86 71 / 10 10 40 20 West Palm Beach 83 72 84 70 / 10 10 50 20 Boca Raton 83 73 84 71 / 10 10 40 20 Naples 85 72 84 73 / 10 20 20 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285120 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:30 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1220 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Frost advisory continues overnight across the Coastal Plain. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Frost concerns overnight and Tue morning. Gradual warm up with dry conditions through mid week. 2) Approaching storm system near the end of the week will bring well below normal temperatures, breezy conditions, and a chance of rain. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Tonight still looks like the best candidate so far for fairly widespread frost, especially west of NC 17 as skies remain clear and winds inland will likely be calm with high pressure building overhead tonight. As is typical in these environments, deterministic guidance for lows is not aggressive enough, so blended in NBM 10th percentile and the previous forecast to keep forecast lows into the mid to upper 30s. Could see a few well sheltered areas make a run towards the low 30s but this should be rather isolated. Frost Advisory continues for areas along and west of Hwy 17 overnight. Tuesday night is forecast to remain slightly warmer as high cirrus is forecast to stream into ENC from the west preventing good radiational cooling Tue night limiting frost potential. So while it is unlikely tomorrow night it`s not completely out of the question for inland sheltered spots. KEY MESSAGE 2...Not much has changed with this weekends system as there remains good agreement amongst guidance for increasingly unsettled weather across the eastern CONUS. A complex mid-level low will deepen over the region and steer multiple shortwaves over the Mid-Atlantic. While there are still some differences in exact details that will need to be hashed out in the coming days it remains likely that a complex low will sweep across the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic Wed into Thursday with a coastal low developing off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thurs into Friday with this coastal low then deepening offshore as it meanders around the the Northeast this weekend though its intensity and track remain uncertain. Probabilistic guidance favors a northern track for these areas of low pressure, which would keep heavier precipitation away from our area though isolated to widely scattered showers wouldn`t be out of the question. Either way not expecting much QPF from any shower that impacts the area Thurs into Fri before we dry out. The biggest threat with this aforementioned low will be the associated gusty winds. In general, probabilities for a period of 20-30 mph W-NW winds and gusts potentially in excess of 35-45 mph Fri into Sat remain high. If this is realized, at least some coastal flooding concerns could arise soundside along the Outer Banks. Given spread of guidance, it is too early to state the potential magnitude of impacts. Stay tuned for future updates. Behind the system, unseasonably cool air will flood into the area knocking highs down into the 50s for the weekend and offer the first real opportunity for a freeze Sat night and Sun night. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will gradually build overhead tonight bringing mainly VFR conditions to all terminals. Strong radiational cooling expected overnight with clear skies and light to calm winds opening the door for a ground fog and frost threat if there`s enough moisture left in the lower levels. Brief patchy fog will be possible at all terminals early Tue morning. Increasing high clouds expected Tue afternoon. Patchy fog will again be possible Tue night/Wed morning. Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are forecast through Wed as high pressure and a much drier airmass remain in place. Approaching storm system at the end of the week brings an increase in shower chances, some gusty winds, and sub-VFR conditions. && .MARINE... High pressure has begun to build in from the west behind a departing surface trough giving way to light winds and subsiding seas overnight and early Tue. Latest obs show variable winds 5-10 kt with seas mainly 2-4 ft, 3-5 ft further offshore. Light winds becoming SW 5-15 kt this afternoon with seas 2-4 ft. Outlook: Decent boating conditions expected through Wednesday. Attention then turns to a coastal low likely to develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday. Although magnitude of impacts remains uncertain, trend has been for stronger winds and the probability for strong SCA and Gales remains elevated, especially for the waters from Raleigh Bay north. Timing and intensity remains a point of uncertainty, so mariners are encouraged to continue monitoring future forecasts. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NCZ029-044-079- 080-090>092-193-198. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285119 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:27 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1218 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly dry & seasonable weather continues through mid-week with gradually more sunshine. Lows mainly in the 30s-lower 40s with highs generally well into the 50s. - Monitoring potential storminess Friday into Saturday, with a still uncertain storm track and storm strength. Mainly plain rain is favored for the lower elevations and coastal plain. Rain possibly changing over to a period of wet snow in the interior higher elevations, although wintry weather impacts seem limited. - Cloudy, cool, and blustery weather for late weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry & seasonable weather continues through mid-week with gradually more sunshine. Lows mainly in the 30s-lower 40s with highs generally well into the 50s. Low pressure will continue to lift to the north northwest across eastern Canada through the middle of the week. This will result in a persistent westerly flow of air across the region. Outside a brief sprinkle/spot shower or two into early this evening...dry weather will persist. In fact...we do expect to gradually see more diurnal sunshine Tue and especially by Wed as the upper level flow becomes flatter. Highs will be rather seasonable...mainly well into the 50s. Low temps will mainly be in the 30s to the lower 40s. Winds may gust between 15 and 25 mph at times...mainly during the daylight hours. KEY MESSAGE 2...Monitoring potential storminess Friday into Saturday, with a still uncertain storm track and storm strength. Mainly plain rain is favored for the lower elevations and coastal plain. Rain possibly changing over to a period of wet snow in the interior higher elevations, although wintry weather impacts seem limited. We continue to monitor developments regarding potential storminess centered around late this week into early in the weekend. The last 24-hours worth of guidance seems to be indicating a primary cyclone transitioning to secondary low pressure development near the northern mid-Atlantic coast Thursday evening; varying storm tracks are still noted across the guidance pertaining to this secondary low, tracking either slowly northeastward near the Southern New England coast Friday and into early Saturday, or passing east well south of Nantucket through the same timeframe. The latter storm track outcome seem to be more favored by the ECMWF and some AI-trained solutions; the operational GFS and Canadian solutions are further northwest/closer to the coast, which would be a stronger, wetter and also colder solution and the system`s strength would allow for sub-freezing air aloft to drain southward, supporting a possible transition to wet snow for interior Southern New England. There still is too much uncertainty across the guidance to really hone into a favored solution, and additional forecast adjustments are likely in the coming days. The lower elevations and coastal plain look to stay as predominantly rain given the influx of milder maritime air. For the hilly terrain in interior Southern New England, latest ensemble snow probabilities show a moderate (20-50%) probability of 1" or more of snow confined to hilly terrain, and low (< 20%) probabilities of snow greater than 4 inches. Those also assume a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio; unless we get really heavy precipitation rates which seems unlikely, those 10:1 SLR accumulations might not be valid given a wetter, gloppy and possibly lower-SLR snow character being more favored. It seems any wintry weather impacts in the terrain would be very limited to nil, and this is reflected by low probabilities of Minor winter storm impacts in the Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index graphic. Stevens Institute guidance also shows a potential 1-1.5 ft storm surge over the eastern coast Friday into Friday night; it seems unlikely we`ll see coastal flooding, although Stevens Institute does show minor coastal flooding in Nantucket with water levels around 5.2 ft. KEY MESSAGE 3...Cloudy, cool, and blustery weather for late weekend into early next week. We become entrenched in a cool cyclonic flow aloft once the storm system exits offshore by Sunday. This supports a period of cooler, cloudy and blustery weather conditions Sunday into early next week, although dry weather seems favored. Temperatures may trend slightly cooler than normal as we open the early part of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update... VFR conditions continue through the middle of the week despite some scattered to broken mid level cloudiness at times. W winds may gust on the order of 15-25 knots at times, mainly during the daylight hours...although the Cape/Islands may see gusts linger into the overnight period. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Thursday through Saturday/... Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance RA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely, chance SN. Friday Night through Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA, chance SN. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight through Wednesday night...High confidence. Westerly wind gusts of 20-25 knots will persist at times into early Wed with a second surge late of wind late Tue night behind a cold front. Therefore...we continued small craft headlines for many waters into Tue and even early Wed for our outer-waters before things finally diminish. Outlook /Thursday through Saturday/... Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain. Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain. Friday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Rain. Friday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain likely. Saturday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Rain likely. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ231- 251. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ232>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ250- 254>256. && $$ |
| #1285116 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:09 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1208 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1207 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 - There is a medium chance of fog tomorrow morning across portions of southwest Georgia and the Florida Big Bend from the Flint River Valley eastward and southeastward to Cross City. - Dry weather will persist through the first half of this week with seasonably cool overnight lows and mild afternoon highs. A reinforcing blast of cold air is expected for the end of the work week, into the weekend, with a low to medium chance of frost over the weekend away from the coast. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 219 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026 Generally benign weather conditions are expected throughout the forecast period. Light westerly winds tomorrow and Wednesday give way to breezier conditions Thursday and Friday as a trough digs south across eastern CONUS pushing through a dry cold front. Winds around 850mb will be around 25-35 kts on these days and given that this frontal feature is expected to have very little moisture return, it`s expected that both afternoons will be mostly sunny. This will allow effective mixing of this high momentum air down to the surface with northwesterly gusts around 30 kts possible. Otherwise, behind the cold front, several reinforcing shortwaves round the base of the trough, sending back to back shots of cold, dry, northerly air to the deep south this weekend. Luckily, winds will begin decreasing Saturday into Sunday, depending on timing this could limit how cold feel-like temperatures get. Currently, models are hinting at feel- like temps around freezing during the overnight period for Friday night and Saturday Night. We`ll be monitoring trends throughout the week to determine how impactful this cold shot will be, stay tuned for updates. As mentioned, the temperature forecast essentially takes a dive throughout the week. Generally speaking, expect daytime high temps through Thursday, ahead of the cold front, to be in the 70s. Following frontal passage these daytime highs dip into the upper 50s across our northernmost counties and into the 60s elsewhere, with warmer temperatures as one heads closer to the Gulf Coast. Likewise, overnight low temps actually increase over the next few mornings ahead of the cold front. They`ll be in the mid to upper 40s tonight rising into the mid 50s by Thursday morning. Friday morning they`ll dip into the low to mid 40s and bottom out by Sunday morning into the mid and upper 30s with just the coastal strip remaining in the low to mid 40s. Patchy fog may continue to be an issue in some areas over the next couple mornings until the cold front moves through. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 VFR conditions generally prevail through the TAF period with light westerly winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026 Light to moderate offshore winds with dry weather expected to last into mid week. On Thursday and Friday, northwest winds are expected to increase to advisory-level as a cold front pushes through the area with gusts near 30 knots expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 219 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026 A dry airmass will continue through the middle of the week. Winds will remain light through Wednesday, then a cold front will blow through on Thursday with an increase in winds for Thursday and Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 219 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026 Given the dry conditions expected over the next week, there are currently no flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 55 77 57 78 / 0 10 0 0 Panama City 57 75 62 76 / 0 10 0 0 Dothan 51 75 54 74 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 50 75 53 74 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 52 76 54 77 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 59 79 60 78 / 0 10 10 10 Apalachicola 59 75 63 76 / 0 0 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285115 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:03 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1053 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1045 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 - Chances of rain gradually diminish through Wednesday night. - A medium risk of rip currents continues through Tuesday afternoon. - Cooler than average temperatures on Tuesday warm to near average by Thursday. - The next chance of rain could arrive this weekend. - Slightly adverse marine conditions on Thursday become adverse this weekend as a pressure gradient tightens. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1045 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 Radar continues to reveal scattered to numerous light to locally moderate showers, mainly along/east of US-281, thanks to convergence associated with a weak low pressure system situated over the Lower RGV, well-above average moisture content and divergence aloft provided by a mid/upper level low over northwestern Texas. This activity could continue spreading west overnight as well as drop as much as 0.25 of inch, or a little more, of rain by Tuesday morning. To the south, subsidence associated with anticyclonic flow aloft is anticipated to move northeastward and gradually decrease shower activity from south to north through the next 24-36 hours; rain chances drop from a near region-wide medium to likely (40-80%) chance tonight to a low to medium (20-50%) chance across the Northern Ranchlands and coastal/island areas by Tuesday morning, further decreasing into Wednesday. Following, dry conditions should resume by Thursday as ridging arrives over the Southern Plains ahead of a high pressure aloft building over the 4 Corners region, possibly inducing a weak cold front Wednesday night or Thursday morning, funneling drier air into the region. At this time, the latest GFS and ECMWF global deterministic runs suggest a rather robust shortwave trough arriving over southern CA and the northern Baja Peninsula on Friday, moving eastward and ejecting over the Southern Plains on Saturday, bringing the next chance of unsettled weather. This could be our next focus through the coming days with regards to the strength, location and timing of the trough`s passage as well as the atmospheric and moisture support for possible storms and rain chances Saturday into Sunday or Monday. Temperature-wise, overcast skies and light northerly winds are likely to result in another cool day on Tuesday, with highs reaching the low/mid 70s, possibly upper 60s in the Northern Ranchlands. A warming trend is anticipated through the middle of the week as clouds gradually clear, leading to more seasonable temperatures, in the low/mid 80s, by Thursday. Mostly cloudy skies from moist low-levels maintain above average overnight lows, in the 60s inland and low 70s along/near the coast though could drop into the 50/60s Thursday night behind a potential weak cold front. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 IFR ceilings are expected to continue at all TAF sites through the 06Z TAF cycle as high moisture content persists across the region. VCSH have been included in the prevailing conditions along with PROB30s into the pre-dawn hours due to the potential for brief periods of LIFR or VLIFR (ceilings as low as 100 ft) resulting from intermittent light rain. Mostly dry conditions should return by the morning hours when light and variable winds transition to a light NW or NNW breeze. && .MARINE... Issued at 1045 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 Slight to moderate (2-4 ft) seas and light to gentle, occasionally moderate, easterly to variable winds become northerly by Wednesday afternoon ahead of a cold front moving through, possibly late Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate (3-5 ft) behind the front are likely to lead to Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions Thursday morning/afternoon before becoming more favorable by Friday morning. However, SCEC headlines are likely and Small Craft Advisories are possible over the weekend as a pressure gradient tightens. Meanwhile, rounds of medium to likely (as high as 40-70%) chances of rain continue into Wednesday afternoon before becoming mostly dry by Thursday evening. The next chance of unsettled weather could be over this upcoming weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 70 79 68 79 / 30 20 10 10 HARLINGEN 67 77 65 78 / 30 20 10 10 MCALLEN 67 77 67 80 / 50 10 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 62 75 63 79 / 60 20 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 72 76 71 76 / 60 30 20 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 68 78 66 78 / 40 30 10 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285114 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:03 AM 10.Nov.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1201 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Areas of Inland Dense Fog this morning. Visibilities Less Than 1/4 Mile at Times - Strong Cold Front Passage Late Thursday. Small Craft Advisory Conditions. Patchy frost possible inland SE GA Sunday Morning && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights Today and Tonight: - Areas of dense fog possible this morning This morning...Mostly clear skies and cooling boundary layer with near calm surface winds will support another round of dense fog towards sunrise. Best chances for dense fog will be across inland NE FL from the St. Johns River basin westward across inland NE FL along the US301/I-75/I-10 corridors, with some lower dense fog potential north of the FL/GA border across inland SE GA south of a line from Homerville to Waycross to Brunswick. Dense fog advisories may be required in the 4am-9am time frame. Low temps will cool into the 40s across inland SE GA and the I-10 corridor west of JAX, with 50s expected elsewhere. This afternoon...Slow increase in high clouds, but overall partly to mostly sunny with above normal temps around 80F inland and 70s for the Atlantic beaches. West to Southwest surface winds 5-10 mph with a weak East Coast sea breeze pushing inland to I-95 late in the day. Tonight...Mid and high clouds continue to increase slowly through the night in the SW flow aloft ahead of the next weather system and expect partly to mostly cloudy skies towards morning. This will decrease dense fog potential for late tonight/Wednesday sunrise with only patchy/areas of fog with 1-5 mile vsbys expected. Not as cool with lows around 50F expected inland SE GA and middle 50s for the I- 10 corridor west of JAX, then upper 50s/lower 60s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Wednesday through Thursday Main Highlights This Period: - Breezy Westerly Winds Thursday High pressure weakens over the SE US as a cold front moves through the Plains and into the SE US by Thursday. Flow shifts to WSW ahead of the front ushering in some moisture and increasing PWATs to the 1- 1.5 inch range. A mid-upper shortwave trough moves through the region Wednesday afternoon into evening triggering a few showers mainly along the I-10 corridor. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions prevail as highs continue to top out in the upper 70s to low 80s with mild lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Breezy westerly winds develop on Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Drier air builds back in ahead of the front lowering PWATs to below an inch allowing for a dry frontal passage. Around seasonable highs in the 70s on Thursday quickly drop Thursday night as the front shifts south into central FL. Cold and breezy NW winds develop in the wake of the front with lows Friday morning in the 40s across SE GA and Suwannee Valley to the low-mid 50s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Friday through Monday Main Highlights This Period: - Much cooler & drier Friday through Sunday - Inland Frost Potential Southeast GA/Suwannee Valley Sunday Morning Breezy and cold northwest winds continue Friday in the wake of the front draped across central FL. Friday highs will only top out in the 60s. On Friday night, another dry cold front slides offshore of the southeast Atlantic coast reinforcing the cold airmass and keeping winds elevated. This will lead to wind chills dropping into the 30s Saturday morning for much of the area. Winds begin to relax Saturday into Sunday as surface high pressure builds in from the northwest with dry weather and below average highs in the 60s for most with possibly some upper 50s for locations northwest of Waycross. Saturday will likely be the coolest day of the year since mid-March last spring. With calm winds and mostly clear skies, overnight lows fall into the mid/upper 30s for inland locations north of Interstate 10 Sunday morning, with 40s elsewhere. Sunday morning could be the first inland frost of the season for much of inland southeast GA and Suwannee Valley. Temperatures gradually warm into early next week as high pressure builds south into the Great Lakes region and flow shifts to ESE. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Another round of low clouds and stratus can be expected this morning, mainly in the 08Z-13Z time frame at all sites. Using ensemble and NBM guidance, highest chances of IFR/LIFR conds still looks to be for GNV, VQQ, CRG, and JAX from 09z to 12z, but rest of the TAF sites still have a chance of at least MVFR conds. Would expect improvement to VFR by about 14-15Z time frame with light and variable winds the rest of the TAF period. Some increase in high clouds late in the TAF period, but overall remaining VFR. && .MARINE... High pressure will weaken over the southeastern states Today, allowing seas to continue to subside. Strong cold frontal passage expected on Thursday and will lead to strengthening offshore flow on Thursday. Small Craft Advisory conditions appear likely to begin Thursday afternoon and will continue on Friday and Saturday. Rip Currents: Light winds and decreasing swells will lead to mainly Moderate Risk of Rips at both NE FL/SE GA beaches Today and Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... - High Daytime Dispersions Possible Thursday And Friday Dry conditions and light westerly winds persist through midweek, with Poor to Fair daytime dispersions. The dry airmass will continue to bring min RHs down to the upper 20s to 30s for southeast Georgia. The arrival of a cold front on Thursday will bring breezy conditions across a good portion of the area, which will allow for very good to high dispersions to develop. Behind the front, a colder, drier airmass will begin to build into the area, with temperatures likely dipping down to the mid to upper 30s across southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley Region Friday and Saturday Night. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Areas of dense fog possible early this morning, mainly over northeast FL. Patchy Frost possible this weekend over inland SE GA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 80 50 76 54 / 10 10 10 0 SSI 76 57 77 58 / 10 10 10 0 JAX 81 55 79 56 / 10 10 20 0 SGJ 79 61 78 60 / 10 10 20 0 GNV 82 59 80 57 / 10 10 20 0 OCF 82 61 81 59 / 10 10 10 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
