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| #1246981 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:36 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 829 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 828 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 The forecast is on track with minimal changes made. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Friday) Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Shower chances tick up a bit in the FL Big Bend Friday afternoon with daytime East-Northeast wind gusts around 20 mph. High pres ridging into the region with ENE gradient winds. Cannot rule out a passing shower this afternoon in the Southeast FL Big Bend and Forgotten Coast. On Friday, Atlantic moisture moves into the area as PWAT increases to around 1.5 inches w/subtle shortwave energy aloft. This justifies a slight chance of showers mainly in the FL Big bend. Lows in the mid-60s tonight and highs in the mid-80s on Friday, which is near average. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A more complex pattern develops this weekend with a cutoff low over the Bahamas moving westward and eventually being absorbed into a broader cutoff low in the lower MS Valley by early next week. Shower and slight thunder chances increase Saturday with a focus in the FL Counties, then crescendo Sunday as an inverted trough of low pressure moves through the region. In fact, PWAT on Sunday will likely approach or exceed the 90th percentile (1.9 inches) per ensembles, so heavy downpours will be possible. Meanwhile, NHC is monitoring for a low 10% chance of development along the aforementioned trough/remnant frontal boundary in the Northeast Gulf, so we`ll continue to monitor and update on that. It will feel increasingly humid this weekend into next week. As broad southerly flow sets up next week, a chance of showers and a gusty thunderstorm each day. Highs in the 80s each day with warm overnight lows due to cloud cover will keep temperatures generally above average. && .LONG TERM... && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 712 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VFR conditions are expected for most areas through the period. However, one exception may be VLD where easterly flow is expected to bring in some MVFR ceilings late tonight and through the morning hours on Friday. Northeast winds will become gusty again during the day on Friday with gusts around 20 knots expected areawide. && .MARINE... Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A prolonged period of Small Craft Advisory conditions through Sunday across the coastal waters with hazardous conditions for small craft with East-Northeast winds around 20 to 25 knots and significant wave heights rapidly increasing just offshore to 5 to 8 feet. More favorable boating conditions are expected by Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 The chance OF scattered showers and a slight chance of thunder will increase on Saturday from the FL Counties into I-75 corridor of GA, then across the entire region on Sunday. As a result, expect gradually moistening Relative Humidity through the weekend. Breezy easterly transport winds continue through Sunday. Mixing heights between 4,000 and 5,000 feet on Friday and Saturday, when combined with the breezy easterly transport winds, may lead to pockets of high afternoon dispersion away from Gulf coast. Despite increased shower chances this weekend, the forecast of minimal rainfall over the next several days maintains fire weather concerns with fuels continuing to dry out. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 The latest US Drought Monitor indicates the area of severe drought (D2) has increased in size, generally along/north of I-10 in FL into portions of Southwest GA. While much of the area is expected to have rainfall by Sunday, unless forecast amounts increase, it would not put much of dent in the current drought conditions. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 67 84 68 85 / 0 20 0 20 Panama City 68 86 69 86 / 0 20 10 30 Dothan 63 83 66 84 / 0 10 0 10 Albany 64 84 66 85 / 0 10 0 10 Valdosta 67 83 67 84 / 0 20 0 20 Cross City 68 86 69 87 / 0 30 0 50 Apalachicola 70 84 70 83 / 10 30 20 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT tonight for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Sunday for GMZ730- 751-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1246980 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:06 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 805 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .FOR THE EVENING UPDATE... Issued at 743 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A weak stationary boundary was located across extreme south Florida. Rather tight gradient between strong surface high pressure north of the area and the frontal boundary to the south is creating gusty east to northeast winds across the forecast area. The easterly flow off the Atlantic north of the stationary boundary has been generating an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms along the southeast coast. Although the majority of the activity is expected to dissipate as it pushes inland, a few showers have been making there way across the peninsula this evening south of Tampa, with the best chance of a shower for the next several hours across southwest Florida. A weak area of low pressure may develop off the southeast coast of Florida late in the day on Friday along the frontal boundary. Regardless, the overall sensible weather pattern across west central and southwest Florida will persist with gusty east to northeast winds and scattered afternoon showers/isolated thunderstorms mainly south of the I-4 corridor. Given the relatively tight gradient across the region, a few stronger showers/storms may be capable of producing wind gusts to around 40 MPH. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A bit of an unsettled pattern expected the next few days. Strong, gusty northeast to east winds expected today through the beginning of the weekend as the pressure gradient remains tight over the area. This will keep marine hazards elevated as the winds and seas remain elevated. Along with gusty winds, moisture will continue to increase over the next few days as an upper level shortwave lingers over the area and a surface level wave moves east to west over the peninsula into the Gulf this weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected as these features influence the pattern. Next week we shift back into a more typical pattern, as high pressure builds back into the area. This will allow more typical afternoon showers and storms. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 743 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Predominately VFR CIGs will prevail at all terminals for the next several hours. Scattered showers across southwest Florida may create local MVFR CIGs/VSBYs until shortly after midnight. Late tonight and Friday morning, areas of MVFR CIGs 015-025 will develop vcnty all terminals. Cloud bases will lift by around noon with areas of VFR CIGs around 035. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop Friday afternoon with LCL MVFR CIGs and VSBYs...with the best chance impacting PGD/FMY/RSW. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Hazardous marine conditions expected through the weekend as advisory level winds continue to impact the waters. Winds begin to decrease a bit Sunday, however will likely still be around cautionary levels heading into next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 205 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Fire weather concerns remain minimal as RH values remain elevated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 88 74 88 74 / 40 10 30 10 FMY 89 73 86 73 / 50 20 50 20 GIF 86 72 86 73 / 50 20 40 20 SRQ 89 72 89 73 / 40 10 40 10 BKV 87 69 86 71 / 40 10 30 10 SPG 86 75 86 74 / 30 10 30 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
| #1246979 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:03 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 756 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong high pressure will extend across the region into the weekend, with rain chances increasing on Sunday into early next week. A cold front may approach the region in the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Feeling quite fall-like out there, with temperatures in the lower to upper 70s, dewpoints in the 50s inland to 60s along the coast, and a gusty north-northeast wind. This is occurring as a ~1030mb high pressure wedge remains centered on the northeast coast, with an area of low pressure in the far southwest portion of the Gulf, leading to a high surface pressure gradient across the region. This will lead to a dry forecast for most, though some weak isentropic lift may result in some very scattered showers in our far southeastern Georgia counties along the coast. There is a roughly 20% chance for these starting early this evening, with chances expanding up the rest of the Georgia coast into the early overnight hours. Any amounts are expected to remain light at under a quarter of an inch. Overnight temperatures drop towards the upper 50s inland to mid 60s along the coast, with breezy winds continuing. Aloft, h500 heights remain fairly consistent across our area, though weak troughing is expected to occur across the Gulf Stream. NHC highlights this area within the trough between Florida and the Bahamas with a 10% of formation over the next 48 hours. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Friday and Saturday: The pseudo Rex configuration of the upper air pattern across the eastern CONUS will gradually translate to the upper level high settling offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks with the upper low over the northwest Gulf/Louisiana coast through the weekend. The strong inland wedge that has been in place for the past several days will gradually weaken as the confluent flow over the Northeast U.S. diminishes and unlocks the parent high over New England. This will allow the parent high to sink to the south/southeast, ending up offshore of the Virginia Tidewater by Sunday. Until this occurs, a stiff northeast low-level flow will persist with subtle coastal trough lurking just offshore. Models are still likely overdeveloping shower activity over the Atlantic associated with an extensive marine-based stratocumulus field left in the wake of Imelda; a known bias in the various model suites, especially in the cool/cold season. At least a downward recent has been noted. Still expect some degree of shower activity to impact the beaches, but most of any activity that forms will be redirected into northeast Florida and possibly far southern coastal Georgia. Seasonable temperatures will continue with highs peaking in the upper 70s/lower 80s both afternoons with lows Saturday morning ranging from the mid 60s well inland to the lower-mid 70s at the beaches. A pinched gradient associated with the inland wedge will keep breezy conditions in place at the beaches both days. Sunday: An increasingly moist flow will develop across the area by Sunday as the region becomes pinned between the upper high off of Cape Hatteras and the upper low over the far northwest Gulf. Guidance is pretty similar in showing a weak impulse, possibly even a subtle surface low, developing near a stalled front over the Florida peninsula in response to band of vorticity passing through aloft. As this system moves into the northeast Gulf, the northern fringe of what looks to be a fairly large rain shield will begin to spread into Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia. There is a lot of uncertainty here as much will depend on how strong any disturbance to the south becomes with the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members supporting a much weaker system compared to their operational counterparts. Even if the system ends up much weaker, the same band of vorticity moving across the Florida peninsula will propagate into the Southeast U.S. and interact with the lingering coastal trough offshore to also aid in rain production. Bottom line, rain chances will be on the increase through Sunday, but the associated QPF is highly uncertain. PWATs are forecast to increase to 2-2.25", so there will be a risk for conditional risk for locally heavy rainfall possibly some minor flooding, mainly in low- lying and poor drainage areas. Highs will warm in the upper 70s/lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The risk for rainfall will persist into the middle of next week as moist conditions linger ahead of an approaching cold front. Confidence how much convection will occur in the warm sector is a bit uncertain with upper pattern favoring a pretty steady stream of hard-to-time impulses passing through in the southerly flow aloft. NBM pops were generally favored, showing chance to likely pops Monday with slight chance to chance pops Tuesday into Wednesday. Highs each day will warm into the lower-mid 80s with overnight lows in the mid-upper 60s inland to the 70s at the coast. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 00Z TAFs: VFR. Expect gusty winds to develop Friday morning and persist through the end of the TAF time period. Extended Aviation Forecast: There are no high confidence concerns. The risk for restrictions from showers/tstms will increase this weekend into early next week for all terminals. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: A pinched surface pressure gradient is resulting in breezy northeasterly winds. The last swells from Imelda will remain across the marine zones through the near term. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all marine zones, except the Charleston Harbor. Friday through Tuesday: Pinched gradient conditions associated with the inland wedge will keep northeast winds 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in place through the weekend. The gradient will begin to relax Monday into Tuesday as a warm front shifts north and winds become more east to southeast. The combination of both winds and seas will keep solid Small Craft Advisory conditions in place through Tuesday for most legs. Peak seas will average 5-8 ft nearshore waters and 8- 11 ft over the Georgia offshore waters through the weekend, then slowly subside. Rip Currents/High Surf: A high risk rip currents will continue into Saturday. NWPS breaking wave guidance still shows breakers at 4-6 ft with sets up to 7 ft holding through Saturday morning. The High Surf Advisory remains in place. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Heading into this weekend and early next week, astronomical tides will increase due to the upcoming Full Moon (Oct 7) and Perigee (Oct 8). This in combination with the anticipation of continued northeasterly flow will cause the possibility of coastal flooding to become more likely along the entire coastline, including both Downtown Charleston and Fort Pulaski. Saltwater inundation could then occur during both the morning and evening high tide cycles during this time. Although there is considerable uncertainty this far out, persistent favorable winds have the potential to produce up to major coastal flooding. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday evening for GAZ117-119- 139-141. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for GAZ117-119-139- 141. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday evening for SCZ048>051. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for SCZ048>051. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ350-352-354. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1246977 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:00 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 742 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds north of the region tonight and settles southward on Friday. A warm-up is expected heading into the weekend, with dry conditions continuing into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 315 PM EDT Thursday... Key Message: - Very pleasant this afternoon and tonight with low humidity. Afternoon analysis shows 1032mb high pressure centered over New England with an upper ridge in place across the eastern CONUS. Satellite imagery shows scattered to broken cumulus clouds with bases between 4000-5000 ft. Still rather breezy near the coast this afternoon, especially from VA Beach southward where the pressure gradient remains compressed. Temperatures this afternoon are below seasonal norms, generally in the upper 60s and low 70s with dew points in the upper 40s to low 50s. Clouds are expected to thin out this evening with mostly clear conditions inland and perhaps a few more clouds hanging on near the coast. Winds become light inland tonight with a slight breeze continuing near the coast. Not expecting much if any fog formation overnight with the dry airmass in place. Overnight lows will continue below normal with temps ranging from the mid to upper 40s inland and low 50s near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Dry and comfortable conditions expected this weekend with a slow warming trend. High pressure sinks southward over the area on Friday with a mix of clouds and sun resulting in temps generally in the low to mid 70s (highest S). Calm winds and mostly clear skies Friday night result in low temps in the mid to upper 40s inland and low to mid 50s near the water. Generally clear skies expected on Saturday with temps rising into the mid and upper 70s (again highest S) with high pressure nudging off the coast late. Not quite as cool Saturday night with lows mainly in the low to mid 50s, though some upper 40s are possible in the cooler rural locations NW of Richmond and some low 60s are possible near the coast in NE NC and up into the VA Beach vicinity. Warming trend continues on Sunday as high pressure becomes centered offshore and SE low level winds develop. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s expected with a few more clouds across the south. Lows Sunday night fall into the mid 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 315 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Continued warmer temperatures to start the week, with a chance for rain midweek as a front approaches the region. The synoptic pattern on Monday will remain the similar to the weekend with ridging aloft and high pressure dominating at the surface, but an upper-level trough will be approaching the region from the Great Lakes area. This will shove the high off the Mid- Atlantic coast, which will result in winds shifting to a more southerly direction. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be above normal for this time of year, likely reaching near 80F into the lower 80s. The next best shot at rain will be late Tuesday through early Thursday as a surface front associated with the aforementioned upper trough approaches the area. Cooler temperatures and a return to dry conditions is expected on Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 720 PM EDT Thursday... 1032mb high pressure is centered over New England this evening. Conditions are VFR across the region with a mix of strato-cu near the coast and some cirrus moving into the region from the west. High pressure dominates through the TAF period. Winds become light and variable inland overnight but remain generally NE 5-10 kt for ORF and ECG. Winds will shift from NE-E-SE for RIC and SBY so have maintained VRB in the forecast. Elsewhere, NE winds prevail, mainly 5-10 kt but perhaps a big stronger at ECG. Forecast soundings show the potential for additional CU on Friday with bases around 4kft. Primarily VFR conditions are anticipated from Friday night through Tuesday as high pressure remains over the region, with the only exception being any early morning shallow ground fog. && .MARINE... As of 740 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - A high risk for rip currents continues through at least Friday, likely continuing into the weekend. - Gradually improving marine conditions through Saturday as high pressure settles into the region. - Benign conditions expected Sunday into early next week. High pressure, centered to the NE, builds into the region tonight. Still have enough of a pressure gradient and CAA to support breezy NE winds ~15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt over most of the local waters with 15-20 kt across the southern coastal waters. Seas remain elevated at 6 to 8 ft for most of the waters and up to 10 ft across the NC waters. Waves were at 1 to 3 ft across most of the Ches Bay with 3-5 ft waves at the mouth of the bay. SCAs have been extended until 10 AM Fri for the mouth of the bay given lingering 3-5 ft waves. Otherwise, SCAs remain in effect across the northern coastal waters through Fri night and across the southern coastal waters through Sat. Winds will continue to diminish overnight as that high builds south and the pressure gradient weakens. By tomorrow morning, expecting NE winds to be down to 5-10 kt over most of the waters and up to 15 kt over the NC coastal waters. Seas will be slow to diminish given the onshore winds and any lingering swell from the artists formerly known as Imelda and Humberto. Expecting seas to still be up at 5-7 ft tomorrow morning (with 6-8 ft seas possible across the NC coastal waters). Winds drop off late tomorrow afternoon and through the weekend to ~5 kt as the center of the high pressure drops south. SCAs may continue into Saturday, though, due to the seas being over 5 ft. Northern seas likely drop below 5 ft Sat morning, but southern waters linger at 5 ft into the evening. Benign marine conditions then expected Sunday into early next week. Given long period swell of 10-11 seconds, NE winds, and nearshore waves of 4-6 ft across the northern beaches and 5-7 ft across the southern beaches (perhaps up to 8 ft early Fri morning across the NC beaches), a high risk of rip currents continues through Friday. While seas gradually subside this weekend, they still remain elevated (> 4 ft). That plus a long period swell of 10-13 seconds continuing through the weekend will allow for an elevated (likely high) risk for rip currents to continue through the weekend. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 725 PM EDT Thursday... Starting to see tidal anomalies level off at most sites, which lines up with the lighter winds and strong ebb tide at the mouth of the bay that occurred earlier today. That being said, still expecting another round of minor tidal flooding at many of the sites with tonight`s high tide. Added western Essex County to the Coastal Flood Advisory and also extended a few counties by a couple of hours. Otherwise, Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect through this evening`s high tide. Should be done with coastal flooding (for now anyway) in the lower bay after tonight, but minor tidal flooding looks to linger for points N of Windmill Point into tomorrow. Did not issue anything for tomorrow`s tides, however, since there is a little more uncertainty with how that will play out given the ebb tide today. Will be looking to see how tonight`s tide goes before issuing additional headlines. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for MDZ021>023. NC...High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for VAZ075-077. High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for VAZ076-078- 521-522. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ082- 084>086-089-090-093-523. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ083- 518-520. Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095>098-524-525. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658. && $$ |
| #1246974 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:54 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 647 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1232 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Rain and storm chances slowly increase through the weekend. Highest rain chances will be on Sunday. - Winds and seas will remain hazardous through this weekend with Small Craft Advisory conditions. - Minor coastal flooding along east facing shores of southeast LA, including portions of the tidal lakes, and Hancock, MS county is expected Friday and into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Little change in thinking from the previous forecast packages through Saturday night. A broad area of low pressure over the Gulf will continue to gradually strengthen resulting in an increasing pressure gradient across the region. This will allow for a persistent easterly flow regime with winds of 10 to 15 mph and gusts over 20 mph to remain in place through Saturday night. These east winds will combine with a long fetch across the northern Gulf to push some water up on our east facing shorelines resulting in some minor coastal flooding concerns. A coastal flood advisory is now in effect starting tomorrow afternoon and continuing through Sunday afternoon for flooding of 1 to 2 feet above ground level. Any flooding will be confined to the high tide cycles which will occur in the afternoon and early evening hours. Beyond the coastal flooding concerns, our rain chances will also gradually ramp up each day as the easterly flow pattern advects in a more moist airmass. However, the moisture spread will be uneven with the deepest moisture expected along the coast where PWATS will run between the median and 75th percentile on Friday and Saturday. Further inland in southwest Mississippi and areas around Baton Rouge, much drier air will linger through Saturday and this will greatly limit the rain chances in these areas. Preciptiable water values will struggle to approach the median for this time of year by Saturday afternoon in southwest Mississippi. PoP forecasts show this moisture gradient quite well with PoP of 40 to 60 percent south of I-10 and 10 to 30 percent north of I-10 through the short term period. The increased moisture, cloud development, and rainfall will also help to temper the heat across the region. Overall spread in the guidance is pretty low in terms of temperatures, and the forecast calls for daytime highs to be near average or in the mid 80s on both Friday and Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 All of the guidance remains in good agreement that the weak low in the Gulf will move inland on Sunday. As this occurs, a broad area of increased lift and an increase moisture across the region to at least the 75th percentile will support higher rain chances across the entire forecast area. The deepest moisture will still be south of I-10, where precipitable water values could approach daily max values, and this would be the primary area of concern for any heavier rainfall to develop. However, the extent and duration of the heavy rainfall will remain limited with the primary concern being some localized street flooding in more urbanized locations. Further inland, heavy rainfall is not expected, but some beneficial rainfall of up to half an inch is probable. The rainfall will not be enough to ease the ongoing moderate drought conditions, but any rain will help at this juncture. The stronger easterly flow will also continue on Sunday and minor coastal flooding will continue during the high tide cycle Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will also be cooler than average due to the extensive cloud cover that is expected with the passage of the low. Highs are only forecast to warm into the lower 80s. The low pressure will weaken and dissipate over the Deep South on Monday and Tuesday as a strong deep layer ridge builds back over the region. As the ridge intensifies and subsidence increases in the mid and upper levels, a strengthening mid-level inversion will help to suppress convective activity. A decline in deeper moisture will also occur over the extended period early next week with precipitable water values falling back to around the 25th percentile by Wednesday. Rain chances will turn from more scattered coverage on Monday to very isolated coverage by Wednesday. Coastal flooding concerns will also come to an end by Monday as the easterly flow weakens to less than 10 mph. Temperatures will gradually warm as the ridge builds in with highs rising back into the upper 80s and lower 90s, or around 5 degrees above average, on Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VFR conditions in place at all terminals at forecast issuance time. Can`t entirely rule out some MVFR ceilings at KHUM this evening, as KGAO currently reporting MVFR. SHRA/TSRA currently remain offshore, and probably will for most of the overnight. KHUM could see SHRA and brief MVFR conditions by about 09z as moisture spreads north a bit. Will only carry mention of convection on Friday at KHUM/KMSY/KNEW, using PROB30, but the threat is non-zero at KASD/KGPT and perhaps KHDC. Easterly winds of 10 to 15 knots likely to continue for much of the period at terminals near and south of Interstate 10, with gusts exceeding 20 knots possible at KNEW. && .MARINE... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 An increasing pressure gradient between low pressure in the Gulf and high pressure over New England will bring increasingly hazardous conditions to the waters through the weekend. As the low deepens, a prolonged easterly wind of 15 to 25 knots will develop today and persist through Sunday. The combination of wind waves and swell from a long fetch across the eastern Gulf will produce rough seas of 6 to 10 feet in the open Gulf waters and 3 to 6 feet in the sounds and tidal lakes. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all of the open Gulf waters and the tidal sounds, as well as Lake Borgne from midday through Sunday evening due to these expected rough conditions. Conditions will gradually improve Monday into Tuesday as high pressure becomes more centered over the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 64 86 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 68 86 68 86 / 0 10 0 10 ASD 64 84 66 84 / 10 20 20 30 MSY 73 82 73 82 / 20 30 20 40 GPT 67 84 69 84 / 20 20 20 30 PQL 64 84 67 84 / 10 10 20 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from noon Friday to 6 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ069-070-076-078. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-555-557-575-577. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ550-552-570- 572. MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from noon Friday to 6 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ086. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ534-536-538- 555-557-575-577. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ552-570-572. && $$ |
| #1246972 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:36 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 733 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered north of the area will bring a breezy but largely seasonable period for the remainder of the week and weekend. Only minor rain chances return much of next week as moisture tries to overrun this high from the south. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Latest surface analysis shows high pressure over the New England coast, which has reached all the way down into the Carolinas. This high has brought cool Canadian air with it, allowing for our first lovely fall air of the season. After lows in the 50s this morning, we have gone up into the mid 70s this afternoon. This high pressure will push a little more offshore and then slide down the mid-Atlantic coast through Friday. Inland areas may be even a bit cooler for tonight`s lows than the night before. Some parts of the Pee Dee region may even bottom out in the upper 40s, though this doesn`t look likely, as I believe enough boundary layer winds keep the radiational cooling in check. Subtle airmass modification starts Friday afternoon, with highs about 2-3 degrees warmer than what we`ve seen today. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A large area of high pressure will be centered off the Delmarva through the period. Ridging in the mid to upper levels will also be close to the area, generally centered north of it. This will bring a breezy period of sunshine and normal temperatures save for a milder Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Ridging both surface and aloft starts to slide offshore Sunday into Monday. This will lead to two main sources of increased rain chances; low level moisture advection and the decreased downward vertical motion association with the mid level ridge. Models are usually a bit too fast in such a moisture return scenario, likely meaning rain holds off until Monday and may be confined to SC over NC-the latest blended guidance seems to agree. Much of next week will have high temperatures that are only a few degrees above climatology whereas nighttime lows will be more significantly elevated. The more legit rain chances may come late in the period as a cold front and upper trough approach from the northwest. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High confidence in VFR for the 00z taf period. Extended Outlook...VFR conditions are expected to prevail. May have some patchy fog over the weekend and into early next week with rain chances returning at the coast. && .MARINE... Through Friday...Small Craft Advisory continues along all coastal waters from Surf City, NC to South Santee River, SC out 20 nm. Stiff northeasterly winds at 20-22 kts decrease slightly to 17-19 kts Friday, with gusts of 25-30 kts following a similar trend to dipping below 25 kts. Seas at 4-5 ft at the coast. Seas up to 20 nm from shore are 6-8 ft at first, but relax slightly to 6 ft. Friday night through Tuesday...Advisory flags will still be up at the start of the period. Even though wave bulletins show dominant period dropping to 7 ft (i.e., the tropical swells have abated), the long fetch of NE winds will still be piling up enough water for 6 ft seas especially well away from shore. Over the weekend, the NE flow will turn slightly to the E as high pressure to our north finds a center slightly E of the cold location. Locally, this won`t be very effective in reducing conditions below thresholds, as this may have to wait until early next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for east- facing beaches through this evening. Remnants of Imelda and Humberto swell will intertwine along with the addition of large short period wind waves resulting from strong NE winds as synoptic high pressure ridges across the area from the north. The strong NE wind driven waves will continue through the end of the work week while the 2 remnants of tropical cyclone swell trains slowly subside. Minor coastal flooding during this evening`s high tide cycle expected along coastal Pender, New Hanover, and Brunswick Counties, in addition to the lower Cape Fear River at downtown Wilmington. This is expected to occur over the next few late afternoon/early evening high tide cycles. The coastal SC counties may need similar advisories by the weekend, but we`re not there just yet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Friday through Friday evening for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Friday through Friday evening for SCZ056. Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Friday through Friday evening for SCZ054. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1246971 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 623 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 621 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Increasing risk of rip currents return this weekend along the Lower Texas beaches. - Daily low to medium (20-50%) rain chances return Friday through mid week next week, with the highest chances along the immediate coast and over the Gulf waters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Mid level ridging aloft will maintain generally rain-free conditions for this afternoon and evening, but is expected to shift westward as a broad mid level low centered over the Gulf Coast and Southeast US shifts slightly toward the southwest. In combination with increasing moisture content and diurnal instability, expect low (20% or less) precipitation chances to return on Friday and low to medium (20-40%) precipitation chances over the weekend. While most activity is expected to develop along the sea breeze during peak daytime heating, the influence of the mid level low and presence of elevated precipitable water values may allow for isolated showers or thunderstorms to develop overnight as well, mainly over the Gulf waters and immediate coast. Any activity that develops will be capable of locally heavy rainfall. Daily low precipitation chances, mainly associated with the sea breeze, continue into mid week next week. Otherwise, expect near to slightly above temperatures for early October to persist across Deep South Texas. For the Lower Texas beaches, a low risk of rip currents will continue through Friday evening. However, it is likely well see an increased risk of rip currents this weekend, so use caution if youre planning to go to the beach. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with an ENE breeze Friday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail with low to moderate seas and light to moderate winds. Wave heights will increase to 3-5 feet over the Gulf waters due to increasing easterly swell. Precipitation chances return heading into the weekend and continue through early next week. Locally enhanced winds and seas are expected within any showers or thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 73 91 74 90 / 0 20 20 40 HARLINGEN 69 92 71 90 / 0 20 10 40 MCALLEN 72 96 74 94 / 0 20 10 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 69 96 70 95 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 86 79 86 / 0 20 30 40 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 89 74 88 / 0 20 20 40 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1246970 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:27 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 720 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 324 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Wet weather pattern next several days with increased winds/moisture off the Atlantic supporting locally heavy rainfall. Localized flooding will be a concern, especially along the coast where a Flood Watch has been issued through Saturday night. - Prolonged, dangerous beach and marine conditions will continue into the weekend with life-threatening rip currents, high surf with breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet, and minor to moderate beach erosion especially near times of high tide&& .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Rest of Today-Tonight...There is increasing potential for locally heavy rainfall leading to flooding along the coast, the starting on the Treasure Coast this afternoon, then gradually shifting northward Friday and Saturday, and a Flood Watch has been issued for all East Central Florida coastal counties through Saturday night. For the rest of today and tonight, an axis of high moisture lifting northward in freshening onshore flow from a tightening pressure gradient on the south side of high pressure over the eastern seaboard will support rounds of onshore moving showers, especially along the Treasure Coast. 12Z HREF guidance calls for mean rainfall amounts of 2-5", and 90th percentile values over 6", which would lead to flooding of roads, urban low- lying, and poor drainage area if realized. Individual HRRR runs have called for some eye watering rainfall amounts over 10" which could result in greater flooding impacts, but there is very low confidence in that scenario. Chances for overnight heavy rainfall and flooding along the coast corridor decrease northward, but could still seem some 1-3" rainfall amounts with locally higher values. The threat for heavy rainfall and flooding drops off inland of the coastal corridor where coastal convergence is maximized, but bands of showers will be expected across the rest of the area through the night, with a non-zero threat for heavy rainfall and minor flooding. Beach and marine conditions remain hazardous as onshore flow increases again and we continue to see long period swell produced by Imelda and Humberto reach the coast. High Surf Advisories, Rip Current Statements, and Small Craft Advisories remain in effect. Entering this life-threatening surf is not advised. Friday-Saturday...There is potential for a disturbance to develop over the Atlantic waters near Southeast Florida along the remnant frontal boundary and axis of high moisture. The National Hurricane Center currently has a low (10%) chance of tropical development over the next 7 days, but any development of the feature, closed low or even an open wave, would cause the pressure gradient along the East Central Florida coast to further tighten and increase onshore flow. Easterly winds 15-25 mph with higher gusts would worsen already hazardous beach conditions, and in a very high moisture and low instability environment supporting efficient rain makers, further enhancing the potential for locally heavy rainfall leading to flooding. This threat will be highest along the coastal corridor where coastal convergence will cause onshore moving showers and storms to pile up. Rounds of these showers are forecast to produce widespread rainfall amounts of 1.5-3" along the coast, and locations that see multiple rounds of heavy rainfall and/or training of showers have a medium (40%) chance of locally high amounts of 3-5", and there is a low (10%) chance for one or two locations to receive 5-8" of rainfall through Sunday morning. Areas where soils are reaching saturation from previous heavy rainfall will have higher sensitivity to additional rainfall, particularly coastal Volusia and portions of the Treasure Coast. Confidence where these locally higher rainfall amounts will occur is low, but there has been a fairly consistent signal for the coast south of the Cape Friday, shifting northward to include most of the coast Saturday, with this highest over all chances Saturday. WPC has issued a Slight (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall/flash flooding in these aforementioned areas while the remaining parts of the coast are in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk. All that sad, widespread flooding is not expected, and most locations are going to see the lower end of these forecast values. Rainfall amounts will vary significantly across relatively small areas, and we may see cases where only a couple neighborhoods see significant rainfall that leads to flooding. Showers are expected to push inland, but once they get west of that coastal convergence zone the risk for excessive rain decreases, though is non-zero. Most likely inland rainfall amounts are 0.5-2.0", but some locally higher amounts are possible. On the St Johns River, Astor is forecast to reach Moderate Flood stage by the weekend, and heavy rainfall could cause rises on other sections of the basin. At the beaches, large breaking wave of 5-8 ft are will continue to pound the coast, producing high/rough surf and numerous life- threatening rip currents. While overall water levels are currently forecast to remain below coastal flood criteria, wave run-up to the dune will still cause minor to moderate erosion near the times of high tide. Numerous coastal hazard products remain in effect, including High Surf Advisories, Rip Current Statements, and Small Craft Advisories. Sunday-Wednesday...Forecast confidence in the long-term decreases due to uncertainty how (of if) the disturbance evolves. Guidance agrees it should depart the area by Monday, but how developed it becomes, what direction it goes is less clear, and how much moisture is dragged across the area in its wake is less clear. For what it`s worth, 12Z guidance is in decent agreement for a quick north-northwestward track across peninsula as an open wave or very weak closed low, continuing moderate onshore/easterly flow with the GFS opting for higher moisture and the ECM lower. As a result there is a continued risk for excessive rainfall along the coast corridor through at least Monday. Very high rain chances Sunday gradually decrease through the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Rest of Today-Tonight...There is increasing potential for locally heavy rainfall leading to flooding along the coast, the starting on the Treasure Coast this afternoon, then gradually shifting northward Friday and Saturday, and a Flood Watch has been issued for all East Central Florida coastal counties through Saturday night. For the rest of today and tonight, an axis of high moisture lifting northward in freshening onshore flow from a tightening pressure gradient on the south side of high pressure over the eastern seaboard will support rounds of onshore moving showers, especially along the Treasure Coast. 12Z HREF guidance calls for mean rainfall amounts of 2-5", and 90th percentile values over 6", which would lead to flooding of roads, urban low- lying, and poor drainage area if realized. Individual HRRR runs have called for some eye watering rainfall amounts over 10" which could result in greater flooding impacts, but there is very low confidence in that scenario. Chances for overnight heavy rainfall and flooding along the coast corridor decrease northward, but could still seem some 1-3" rainfall amounts with locally higher values. The threat for heavy rainfall and flooding drops off inland of the coastal corridor where coastal convergence is maximized, but bands of showers will be expected across the rest of the area through the night, with a non-zero threat for heavy rainfall and minor flooding. Beach and marine conditions remain hazardous as onshore flow increases again and we continue to see long period swell produced by Imelda and Humberto reach the coast. High Surf Advisories, Rip Current Statements, and Small Craft Advisories remain in effect. Entering this life-threatening surf is not advised. Friday-Saturday...There is potential for a disturbance to develop over the Atlantic waters near Southeast Florida along the remnant frontal boundary and axis of high moisture. The National Hurricane Center currently has a low (10%) chance of tropical development over the next 7 days, but any development of the feature, closed low or even an open wave, would cause the pressure gradient along the East Central Florida coast to further tighten and increase onshore flow. Easterly winds 15-25 mph with higher gusts would worsen already hazardous beach conditions, and in a very high moisture and low instability environment supporting efficient rain makers, further enhancing the potential for locally heavy rainfall leading to flooding. This threat will be highest along the coastal corridor where coastal convergence will cause onshore moving showers and storms to pile up. Rounds of these showers are forecast to produce widespread rainfall amounts of 1.5-3" along the coast, and locations that see multiple rounds of heavy rainfall and/or training of showers have a medium (40%) chance of locally high amounts of 3-5", and there is a low (10%) chance for one or two locations to receive 5-8" of rainfall through Sunday morning. Areas where soils are reaching saturation from previous heavy rainfall will have higher sensitivity to additional rainfall, particularly coastal Volusia and portions of the Treasure Coast. Confidence where these locally higher rainfall amounts will occur is low, but there has been a fairly consistent signal for the coast south of the Cape Friday, shifting northward to include most of the coast Saturday, with this highest over all chances Saturday. WPC has issued a Slight (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall/flash flooding in these aforementioned areas while the remaining parts of the coast are in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk. All that sad, widespread flooding is not expected, and most locations are going to see the lower end of these forecast values. Rainfall amounts will vary significantly across relatively small areas, and we may see cases where only a couple neighborhoods see significant rainfall that leads to flooding. Showers are expected to push inland, but once they get west of that coastal convergence zone the risk for excessive rain decreases, though is non-zero. Most likely inland rainfall amounts are 0.5-2.0", but some locally higher amounts are possible. On the St Johns River, Astor is forecast to reach Moderate Flood stage by the weekend, and heavy rainfall could cause rises on other sections of the basin. At the beaches, large breaking wave of 5-8 ft are will continue to pound the coast, producing high/rough surf and numerous life- threatening rip currents. While overall water levels are currently forecast to remain below coastal flood criteria, wave run-up to the dune will still cause minor to moderate erosion near the times of high tide. Numerous coastal hazard products remain in effect, including High Surf Advisories, Rip Current Statements, and Small Craft Advisories. Sunday-Wednesday...Forecast confidence in the long-term decreases due to uncertainty how (of if) the disturbance evolves. Guidance agrees it should depart the area by Monday, but how developed it becomes, what direction it goes is less clear, and how much moisture is dragged across the area in its wake is less clear. For what it`s worth, 12Z guidance is in decent agreement for a quick north-northwestward track across peninsula as an open wave or very weak closed low, continuing moderate onshore/easterly flow with the GFS opting for higher moisture and the ECM lower. As a result there is a continued risk for excessive rainfall along the coast corridor through at least Monday. Very high rain chances Sunday gradually decrease through the week. && .MARINE... Issued at 324 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 (Modified Previous Discussion) NE to E pressure gradient will continue to tighten over the local Atlc waters the rest of today around high pressure wedging down the eastern seaboard. There is also potential for a weak disturbance to develop over or just south of the waters this weekend. Thus, hazardous to dangerous boating conditions are forecast to continue across the local Atlantic waters over the next several days. Wind speeds 15-25 knots with combined seas (wind wave and swell) of 7-12 feet. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will continue through Sat for all the waters. There should be some relaxation of the pressure gradient Sun-Mon as winds turn E-SE but seas will be slow to subside. An extension of the SCA appears likely to include Sunday, at least for the offshore waters, but given some uncertainty over development of the disturbance, have opted to not extend with this forecast cycle. Meanwhile, moisture increases locally which will promote a high coverage of showers and isolated storms containing heavy rain and cloud to water lightning. Brief waterspouts will also be possible especially where cell mergers occur or spin-ups driven by coastal convergence. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 720 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Persistent NE/ENE winds from 10-20 KT G25 KT throughout the period with scattered onshore-moving showers affecting area terminals. Guidance hints at another uptick in rainfall coverage on Friday morning, but confidence precludes TEMPOs at this time. For MCO, the highest chance for showers and reduced CIGs/VIS are from late morning through the afternoon on Friday. VFR prevailing CIGs are forecast to drop somewhat and perhaps creep into MVFR territory late tonight, esp on the coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 82 73 82 / 40 60 50 70 MCO 73 84 73 84 / 30 60 40 70 MLB 75 83 75 83 / 40 70 60 70 VRB 74 83 75 84 / 60 70 70 70 LEE 72 84 72 83 / 10 40 30 60 SFB 73 83 73 83 / 30 50 50 70 ORL 73 84 73 83 / 30 50 40 70 FPR 74 83 74 84 / 70 70 70 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for FLZ041-141-154-159-164- 247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ550-552-555- 570-572-575. && $$ |
| #1246969 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:24 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 620 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A strong surface ridge will persist across the southeast states, keeping our easterly winds elevated, especially for our coastal communities. These winds will then decrease Sunday night and Monday as the ridge weakens. Dry conditions will persist through noon Saturday aside from isolated light showers popping up along coastal Alabama. Better rain chances will occur over the weekend into early next week as a series of low-level easterly waves move across the northern Gulf. We are still expecting isolated to scattered showers and storms south of U.S. Highway 84 from Saturday afternoon through noon Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will follow Sunday afternoon through midweek across most of the forecast area with the highest rain chances occurring closer to the coast, and we could see numerous showers and storms on Sunday across our coastal communities. We are still expecting the bulk of the heavy rain to remain out over the Gulf. High temperatures in the lower to middle 80s Friday through Monday will rebound into the middle 80s all areas on Tuesday, and from 85 to 90 degrees midweek. Low temperature tonight through Friday night will be in the lower to middle 60s inland, and the upper 60s to lower 70s along the immediate coast. Lows should then rebound into the middle 60s to lower 70s Saturday night through the remainder of the forecast. Beach Forecast: We continue to see an upward trend in breaker heights reaching the 5 to 6 foot range beginning late tonight. Therefore, we went ahead and issued a High Surf Advisory from 3 AM tonight to 6 PM Sunday. The higher breaker heights, along with the HIGH rip current risk, will result in dangerous swimming and surfing conditions along our beaches through the upcoming weekend. Localized beach erosion is also possible. /22 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 General VFR conditions area-wide, except for local drops to MVFR levels over coastal areas Friday afternoon. Easterly winds expected through the forecast. Overnight, 5-10 knots are expected south of I-10, 5 knots or less north. Winds will rise to around 10 knots by noon Friday. /16 && .MARINE... Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Gulf through the weekend as strong easterly flow develops at the base of a strong surface ridge across the southeast states. Seas will continue to trend higher, and could be as high as 8 to 10 feet well offshore by early Friday morning. Small craft should exercise caution over all bays and sounds beginning tonight due to a moderate easterly flow. Winds will gradually decrease on Monday with seas slowly subsiding through Tuesday. /22 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for ALZ265-266. High Surf Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 6 PM CDT Sunday for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206. High Surf Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 6 PM CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655-670- 675. && $$ |
| #1246968 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:24 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 721 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds north of the region tonight and settles southward on Friday. A warm-up is expected heading into the weekend, with dry conditions continuing into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 315 PM EDT Thursday... Key Message: - Very pleasant this afternoon and tonight with low humidity. Afternoon analysis shows 1032mb high pressure centered over New England with an upper ridge in place across the eastern CONUS. Satellite imagery shows scattered to broken cumulus clouds with bases between 4000-5000 ft. Still rather breezy near the coast this afternoon, especially from VA Beach southward where the pressure gradient remains compressed. Temperatures this afternoon are below seasonal norms, generally in the upper 60s and low 70s with dew points in the upper 40s to low 50s. Clouds are expected to thin out this evening with mostly clear conditions inland and perhaps a few more clouds hanging on near the coast. Winds become light inland tonight with a slight breeze continuing near the coast. Not expecting much if any fog formation overnight with the dry airmass in place. Overnight lows will continue below normal with temps ranging from the mid to upper 40s inland and low 50s near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Dry and comfortable conditions expected this weekend with a slow warming trend. High pressure sinks southward over the area on Friday with a mix of clouds and sun resulting in temps generally in the low to mid 70s (highest S). Calm winds and mostly clear skies Friday night result in low temps in the mid to upper 40s inland and low to mid 50s near the water. Generally clear skies expected on Saturday with temps rising into the mid and upper 70s (again highest S) with high pressure nudging off the coast late. Not quite as cool Saturday night with lows mainly in the low to mid 50s, though some upper 40s are possible in the cooler rural locations NW of Richmond and some low 60s are possible near the coast in NE NC and up into the VA Beach vicinity. Warming trend continues on Sunday as high pressure becomes centered offshore and SE low level winds develop. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s expected with a few more clouds across the south. Lows Sunday night fall into the mid 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 315 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Continued warmer temperatures to start the week, with a chance for rain midweek as a front approaches the region. The synoptic pattern on Monday will remain the similar to the weekend with ridging aloft and high pressure dominating at the surface, but an upper-level trough will be approaching the region from the Great Lakes area. This will shove the high off the Mid- Atlantic coast, which will result in winds shifting to a more southerly direction. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be above normal for this time of year, likely reaching near 80F into the lower 80s. The next best shot at rain will be late Tuesday through early Thursday as a surface front associated with the aforementioned upper trough approaches the area. Cooler temperatures and a return to dry conditions is expected on Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 720 PM EDT Thursday... 1032mb high pressure is centered over New England this evening. Conditions are VFR across the region with a mix of strato-cu near the coast and some cirrus moving into the region from the west. High pressure dominates through the TAF period. Winds become light and variable inland overnight but remain generally NE 5-10 kt for ORF and ECG. Winds will shift from NE-E-SE for RIC and SBY so have maintained VRB in the forecast. Elsewhere, NE winds prevail, mainly 5-10 kt but perhaps a big stronger at ECG. Forecast soundings show the potential for additional CU on Friday with bases around 4kft. Primarily VFR conditions are anticipated from Friday night through Tuesday as high pressure remains over the region, with the only exception being any early morning shallow ground fog. && .MARINE... As of 315 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Gradually improving marine conditions through Saturday as high pressure settles into the region. - Benign conditions expected Sunday into early next week. Marine conditions continue to improve this afternoon as high pressure, centered to the NE, builds into the region. Still have enough of a pressure gradient and CAA to support breezy NE winds of 15-20kt over the lower bay and coastal waters (10-15kt elsewhere). Seas are still rather elevated at 7 to 9ft for most of the waters and up to 11ft in the NC waters. Waves are at 1 to 3ft. SCAs are still in effect for all coastal waters, the lower bay and lower James, and Currituck Sound as of 3pm. Winds will continue to diminish overnight as that high builds south and the pressure gradient loosens. By tomorrow morning, expecting NE winds to be down to 5-10kt over most of the waters and up to 15kt over the NC coastal waters. Seas will be slow to diminish given the onshore winds and any lingering swell from the artists formerly known as Imelda and Humberto. Expecting seas to still be up at 5-7ft tomorrow morning. Winds really drop off tomorrow and through the weekend to ~5kt as the center of the high pressure drops south. SCAs may continue into Saturday, though, due to the seas being over 5ft. Northern seas likely drop below 5ft Sat morning, but southern waters linger at 5ft into the evening. Benign marine conditions then expected Sunday into early next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 315 PM EDT Thursday... Starting to see tidal anomalies level off or drop at most sites, which lines up with the lighter winds and strong ebb tide at the mouth of the bay that occurred earlier today. That being said, still expecting another round of minor tidal flooding at many of the sites with tonight`s high tide. Did not make many changes to the Coastal Flood Advisories previously issued, and these will get us through this evening`s cycle. Only change was to issue an Advisory for the tidal Potomac/Northern Neck for this evening after the warning there expired. Should be done with coastal flooding (for now anyway) in the lower bay after tonight, but minor tidal flooding looks to linger for points N of Windmill Point into tomorrow. Did not issue anything for tomorrow`s tides, however, since there is a little more uncertainty with how that will play out given the ebb tide today. Will be looking to see how tonight`s tide goes before issuing additional headlines. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for MDZ021>023. NC...High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for VAZ075>078- 522. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ082- 084>086-089-090-093-523. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ083- 518-520. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095>098-524-525. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658. && $$ |
| #1246966 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:24 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 619 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Dry conditions continue today, please continue to use caution when working with open flame or equipment that can cause sparks and start a fire. - Rain chances rise on Friday into the weekend when moisture deepens enough to allow for some isolated seabreeze showers/storms along the coast. - Small craft will likely need to exercise caution Friday into the weekend due to increased winds and seas. Beachgoers should also be aware that there will likely be an increased risk of rip currents this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 The stretch of dry weather continued today with mostly clear skies and temperatures rising into the upper 80s to low 90s. There will be a gradual change in the weather starting tomorrow as a long easterly fetch develops over the northern Gulf helping to bring some moisture back into SE Texas. A combination of the increased moisture and a broad upper-level low over the Mississippi RV will bring a slight increase in the chance of showers and storms on Friday and into the weekend. Only areas south of I-10 will have a chance of the shower and thunderstorm activity as it will mostly be driven by the afternoon seabreeze. Cannot out rule an isolated shower north of I-10, but activity will be minimal. For Monday through at least midweek, there will be slightly better chances for isolated afternoon activity north of I-10, but still only a slight chance. While there will be higher moisture across the area that daytime heating may be able to tap into to develop some isolated activity, there will be a building upper level ridge of high pressure developing over the region. This high pressure will increase subsidence over the area, thus limiting precipitation chances. Thus, limiting PoPs next week to 15-25 percent during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will continue to run slightly above normal with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Temperatures may increase another degree or two by Wednesday of next week as that high pressure builds over the region. Fowler && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 606 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VFR conditions should persist for most terminals thru Fri. There may be a few intermittent exceptions we`ll be keeping an eye on. First will be any isolated early evening shra/tsra that manage to develop along remnant storm outflow boundaries in La and east Tx. Suspect these, if any occur, would mainly be east of the metro area - so will not include the mention in the TAFs. Second thing would be some overnight patchy fog development in the usual spots: LBX, CXO and maybe SGR. LBX has been a problem child the past few nights, so decided to include some tempos to cover that possibility. Third, we`ll see some increased moisture/clouds Fri as a more predominant easterly flow sets up. Hires guidance suggests potential for some isolated showers around. Coverage/impacts looks low enough to exclude in the 00z TAFs though. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Light winds and low seas continue through tonight, but increasing easterly winds are expected to develop Friday through the weekend. The easterly winds are expected to rise to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kts as early late Friday morning/early afternoon with these wind speeds continuing through Sunday morning. These higher winds will lead to increasing wave heights as well with seas climbing to around 4-6ft by Friday evening and persist through Sunday. Isolated higher seas of 7-8ft cannot be ruled out on Saturday in the offshore waters beyond 20nm. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop in the coastal waters on Friday with chances continuing through at least the start of next week. The persistent moderate onshore flow will likely lead to an increase in strong rip currents along area beaches this weekend, and lead to higher than normal high tides (around 3-3.5ft above MLLW during times of high tide). Fowler && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Active burn bans in SE Texas: Houston (New), Madison, Colorado, and Wharton counties. Dry conditions continue today with afternoon RH values dropping to 29-40% for inland areas. Observed 10 hour fuel moisture across SE Texas shows many areas below the 25th and 10th percentiles, with isolated spots in our west/northwestern counties below the 3rd percentile. These locations will be most prone to wildfires, though once again low wind speeds and gusts should aid in any firefighting/containment efforts. Still, much of SE Texas remains vulnerable to wildfires due to the dry conditions today. Those preforming land clearing should exercise caution, ensuring any fires are contained and have contingency plans should they grow out of control. Individuals should be mindful of equipment that could create unintended sparks, (i.e. loose chains) especially in areas with flammable surfaces. Easterly flow and rising moisture on Friday will lead to improved rain chances over the weekend. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 69 90 65 90 / 0 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 72 91 71 91 / 10 10 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 78 86 77 85 / 10 30 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1246967 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:24 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 618 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 615 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Hazardous beach conditions this weekend becoming more likely due to minor coastal flooding and an increased risk of rip currents. - Daily low to medium (20-50%) chance of showers and storms Friday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Very little changes were required today from the previous forecast package. A few showers could still develop inland along the sea breeze this afternoon, but chances remain very low (<15%). However, by Friday, rain and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase, as a mid-level low drifts into our area bringing in deeper moisture over the region. The highest precipitation chances can be expected over the marine zones and Coastal Bend during the weekend, with PoPs rising to around 20-50%. Most of the activity will occur in the afternoon hours due to higher daytime instability and focus along the sea breeze. In terms of accumulations, these will remain low, generally less than a quarter of an inch at most locations through next week. Aside from the convective potential, the other main hazard continues to be an increased risk of rip currents and coastal flooding over the weekend. Astronomical tides will be on the rise through early next week as full moon approaches on Monday. At the same time, swell periods are forecast to increase to around 8 seconds, with a moderate to strong east to northeasterly breeze offshore. The combination of these factors will likely result in tide levels reaching 1.6-1.9 ft MSL, and leading to minor coastal flooding along the Gulf-facing beaches. At this time, there is no advisory in effect, but one will likely be needed either Friday night or Saturday night to account for this. The risk of rip currents remains low today/tonight, but could increase over the weekend to moderate/high. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VFR conditions once again are expected to prevail through the forecast across South Texas. There is a low to moderate chance of brief MVFR vsby drop between 09-13Z at VCT/ALI as shown in their respective TEMPOs. Moisture increases as we head through the day Friday, allowing for a low chance of showers and storms in the afternoon, mainly pushing along the seabreeze. PROB30s over the coastal sites (VCT/ALI/CRP) have been added to reflect these low chances. && .MARINE... Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A generally light to gentle easterly breeze (BF 2-3) will continue tonight before increasing to a moderate to strong breeze (BF 4-6) with winds shifting to the northeast on Friday. Winds will hover around advisory criteria through Saturday night before decreasing to a gentle to moderate breeze (BF 3-4) Sunday with winds shifting back to the east to southeast. Low to medium (20-60%) rain and thunderstorm chances return tonight and continue through the weekend. Low (20-30%) rain chances are then in the forecast for next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Afternoon minimum relative humidity will generally range from 25-35% across the Inland Coastal Plains and Brush Country through Friday. Moisture increases Saturday into early next week with minimum relative humidity above 30%. Although Energy Release Component ranges from 50th-90th percentile, weak surface and 20 ft winds will limit the fire risk. Slightly above normal temperatures will continue with low to medium (20-50%) shower and thunderstorm chances Friday and continuing into the middle of next week, mainly along the afternoon seabreeze over the inland Coastal Plains and along the coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 71 91 73 89 / 0 20 10 30 Victoria 67 91 67 91 / 0 20 0 20 Laredo 72 96 71 94 / 0 0 0 10 Alice 68 94 69 92 / 0 10 10 20 Rockport 74 89 75 88 / 0 20 20 30 Cotulla 70 96 70 94 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 68 92 71 90 / 0 20 10 30 Navy Corpus 77 87 78 86 / 0 20 30 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1246965 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:24 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 706 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Dangerous Beach & Marine Impacts through the Weekend. High Rip CurrentRisk, High Surf & Small Craft Advisory. Wind Gusts at the Coast of 30 to 40 mph Today through Saturday - Extended Minor to Moderate Tidal Flooding through the Weekend. Coastal Flood Advisory for St. Johns River Basin, Northeast FL & Southeast GA - Coasts & Portions of ICCW (Minor Tidal Flooding). Coastal Flood Watch Friday Eve for Coastal NE FL & St. Johns River Duval Co. - Southward (Moderate Tidal Flooding Potential) - Rain Chance Increase Today through Weekend. Daily Rounds of Heavy Rain &Isolated Embedded Thunderstorms. Localized Flood Risk at Coast & Low-lying Locations && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 1233 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Local Nor`easter conditions will continue to ramp up through tonight as the coastal trough over the Atlantic waters sharpens up and lifts northward. This will re-focus the shower and embedded storm activity that is currently just across Flagler county and expand it across the entire NE FL/SE GA coastline and I-95 corridor through tonight with windy conditions at the beachfront locations along with the risk of heavy rainfall at times. Rainfall amounts not excessive enough for a Flood Watch at this time, but may need to be posted sometime on Friday or the weekend as better guidance on where the convergent rain bands will set up. Sustained NE winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph will continue for the Atlantic Coastal counties through tonight, just below Wind Advisory criteria, while lesser breezy type NE winds of 15-20G25 mph winds over inland areas this afternoon will fade to 10-15G20 mph over inland areas through tonight. Overnight lows will remain fairly close to normal values in the middle 60s inland SE GA, upper 60s inland NE FL and lower/middle 70s for Atlantic Coastal areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 1233 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Increasing chances for showers and storms going into the weekend as moist onshore flow from out of the Atlantic builds south of high pressure to the north and burgeoning low pressure to the south, resulting in conditions somewhat similar to a nor`easter pattern with gusty northeasterly-easterly winds and a potential for excessive rainfall capable of producing local flooding conditions as PWAT values rise to be in excess of 2.2 inches. Wind speeds during this period are anticipated to rise to be about 15-25 mph with gusts of 35 mph. High temperatures for the end of the week and into the weekend will rise into the lower to mid 80s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the upper 60s and lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1233 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Showers and storms will become more widespread through the weekend and into the beginning of next week with area-wide convection building as the developing low pressure system moves across the Florida peninsula and starts moving towards the northwest, resulting in a more southerly prevailing flow over the forecast area leading to a weaker onshore surface winds as the week progresses with a corresponding reduction in convective developments as drier air starts to advect into the region by Wednesday. Temperatures will experience a slight warming trend through the coming week with daytime high temperatures rising to be near and slightly above the seasonal average by midweek. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 705 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Onshore flow will continue this period, with occasional showers. Restrictions in showers and stratus can be expected throughout this TAF period. Winds will be gusty this period, especially near the coast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1233 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Small Craft Advisory conditions with strong northeasterly winds and elevated seas will persist across the coastal waters through the upcoming weekend and into next week, along with occasional wind gusts to Gale Force. Coastal troughing will sharpen over our local waters late this week, generating increasing chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms. Winds will shift to easterly by Friday and the weekend as high pressure shifts offshore of the Carolinas. Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents and high surf advisory conditions, along with moderate to severe beach erosion will continue at Atlantic beachfront locations through late this week and through the upcoming weekend. Surf/breakers into the 7-10 ft range will continue late this week through the upcoming weekend. Moderate to severe beach erosion is expected at Atlantic beachfront locations during times of high tide through the upcoming weekend as high surf advisories remain in place. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1233 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Minor to locally Moderate tidal flooding will continue along the St. Johns River from downtown JAX southward and along the NE FL Atlantic inter-coastal areas of St. Johns/Flagler counties early this afternoon, then will expand to the rest of the St. Johns River and Atlantic Coastal areas from JAX northward through Brunswick with the next high tide cycle this afternoon and evening and have expanded the current Coastal Flood Advisory as peak water levels remain generally in the 1.5 to 2.0 ft above MHHW range. The continued NE surge of winds through the upcoming weekend will continue to trap more water in the St. Johns River Basin and combine with higher astronomical tides due to the full Moon by the Friday afternoon and evening high tide cycle and expect water levels to peak in the 2 to 2.5 ft range above MHHW in the St Johns River Basin, and along the ICWW of the NE FL coast and have pushed the Coastal Flood Watch to start in these locations for more widespread Moderate coastal/tidal flooding, which will continue through the entire weekend, while mainly Minor Coastal Flooding will continue from Nassau County northward along the SE GA coastline during times of high tide. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 64 82 65 82 / 20 0 0 20 SSI 70 80 71 82 / 60 30 20 40 JAX 70 83 70 83 / 60 40 20 60 SGJ 72 83 72 82 / 70 50 40 60 GNV 68 85 69 84 / 30 30 20 50 OCF 69 83 71 83 / 20 30 10 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ124-125-138-233- 333. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ124. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for FLZ125-132-137- 138-225-233-325-333-633. Coastal Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening for FLZ125-132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for GAZ154-166. High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1246964 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:21 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 712 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Friday) Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Shower chances tick up a bit in the FL Big Bend Friday afternoon with daytime East-Northeast wind gusts around 20 mph. High pres ridging into the region with ENE gradient winds. Cannot rule out a passing shower this afternoon in the Southeast FL Big Bend and Forgotten Coast. On Friday, Atlantic moisture moves into the area as PWAT increases to around 1.5 inches w/subtle shortwave energy aloft. This justifies a slight chance of showers mainly in the FL Big bend. Lows in the mid-60s tonight and highs in the mid-80s on Friday, which is near average. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A more complex pattern develops this weekend with a cutoff low over the Bahamas moving westward and eventually being absorbed into a broader cutoff low in the lower MS Valley by early next week. Shower and slight thunder chances increase Saturday with a focus in the FL Counties, then crescendo Sunday as an inverted trough of low pressure moves through the region. In fact, PWAT on Sunday will likely approach or exceed the 90th percentile (1.9 inches) per ensembles, so heavy downpours will be possible. Meanwhile, NHC is monitoring for a low 10% chance of development along the aforementioned trough/remnant frontal boundary in the Northeast Gulf, so we`ll continue to monitor and update on that. It will feel increasingly humid this weekend into next week. As broad southerly flow sets up next week, a chance of showers and a gusty thunderstorm each day. Highs in the 80s each day with warm overnight lows due to cloud cover will keep temperatures generally above average. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 712 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VFR conditions are expected for most areas through the period. However, one exception may be VLD where easterly flow is expected to bring in some MVFR ceilings late tonight and through the morning hours on Friday. Northeast winds will become gusty again during the day on Friday with gusts around 20 knots expected areawide. && .MARINE... Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A prolonged period of Small Craft Advisory conditions through Sunday across the coastal waters with hazardous conditions for small craft with East-Northeast winds around 20 to 25 knots and significant wave heights rapidly increasing just offshore to 5 to 8 feet. More favorable boating conditions are expected by Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 The chance OF scattered showers and a slight chance of thunder will increase on Saturday from the FL Counties into I-75 corridor of GA, then across the entire region on Sunday. As a result, expect gradually moistening Relative Humidity through the weekend. Breezy easterly transport winds continue through Sunday. Mixing heights between 4,000 and 5,000 feet on Friday and Saturday, when combined with the breezy easterly transport winds, may lead to pockets of high afternoon dispersion away from Gulf coast. Despite increased shower chances this weekend, the forecast of minimal rainfall over the next several days maintains fire weather concerns with fuels continuing to dry out. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 The latest US Drought Monitor indicates the area of severe drought (D2) has increased in size, generally along/north of I-10 in FL into portions of Southwest GA. While much of the area is expected to have rainfall by Sunday, unless forecast amounts increase, it would not put much of dent in the current drought conditions. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 67 84 68 85 / 0 20 0 20 Panama City 68 86 69 86 / 10 20 10 30 Dothan 64 83 66 84 / 0 10 0 10 Albany 64 84 66 85 / 0 10 0 10 Valdosta 67 83 67 84 / 0 20 0 20 Cross City 69 86 69 87 / 10 30 0 50 Apalachicola 70 84 70 83 / 30 30 20 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT tonight for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Sunday for GMZ730- 751-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1246963 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:09 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 704 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather continues as high pressure slowly moves across southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. A prolonged period of dry weather with above- normal temperatures this weekend through early next week, as high pressure is the predominant weather feature. A pattern shift comes middle part of next week with the next chance of rain and cooler, albeit seasonable temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Key Messages: * Decreasing winds through the evening with overnight temps in the mid 30s to low 40s. Details: Few lingering stratocumulus across the South Coast, Cape, and Islands this afternoon, but otherwise sunny and clear under high pressure. While still a little gusty across the outer Cape and Islands, winds have significantly decreased compared to yesterday, and will continue to decrease into the evening. Relative Humidity will increase overnight, allowing for some light cloud formation... keeping temperatures tonight from plummeting along the coast; however, temperatures throughout the interior are likely to reach as low as the mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: * Warming trend as we head into the weekend, with afternoon highs in the mid 70s. High pressure pushes into the Mid-Atlantic region, allowing for increased southerly flow and warmer temperatures heading into the weekend. The southern coast will be a little cooler with highs in the upper 60s, but highs elsewhere should reach into the lower to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Messages: * Continued stretch of dry weather through Tuesday, next chance for rain middle of next week. * Very mild and comfortable temperatures for early October beginning this weekend will continue through Tuesday, with a trend for seasonable temperatures by the middle part of next week. There were no significant changes to the extended forecast period as guidance continues to support a long duration of dry weather, as a mid-level ridge and surface high pressure remain in control. Next chance of rain arrives the middle of next week, around Wednesday, as the ridge moves off shore and a mid-level trough approaches from the west. Given the current set up, temperature wise, expecting above normal stretch of afternoon highs and overnight lows. 850mb temperatures are expected to remain several degrees Celsius above normal, thus will result in a mild stretch. Afternoon highs will climb into the upper-70s to low-80s, while Cape Cod, the Islands, and coastal areas have afternoon highs in the low-70s. For overnight lows, those range between the lower and upper-50s. Reference point, highs for early October range between from the mid-60s to 70F. Overnight lows, those range between the upper-40s to low-50s. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00z TAF Update: Tonight: High confidence. VFR. Light winds. Friday and Friday Night: High confidence. VFR. Light winds becoming west-southwesterly 5 to 10 knots. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Southeast wind becoming light from the southwest overnight. By tomorrow west-southwest winds around 10 knots. A low chance for a sea breeze to develop around 18z Friday. Confidence with a sea breeze remains too low at this point to include in the 00z TAF for KBOS. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday through Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. SCAs remain for the outer waters through early Friday, and will likely be able to drop them tonight. Wave heights 5-7 ft slowly decrease through the night while winds have been sub-SCA throughout today. Winds and seas are sub-SCA for Friday, with SW winds around 10-15 kt (locally around 20 kt over northeast waters) and seas 3-4 ft. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Saturday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ250-254>256. && $$ |
| #1246962 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:57 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 656 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Imelda continues to move away from the Eastern Seaboard but will continue to bring coastal impacts to the area through Friday. High pressure will build in from the north through this weekend continuing to bring NE to E`rly flow to Eastern North Carolina with seasonable temperatures and generally dry conditions. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 230 PM Thurs... Key Messages: - Gusty NE winds continue - Coastal impacts continue (see coastal flood section) Although Imelda continues to track northeastwards further out to sea and away from the Eastern Seaboard, this systems impact to ENC will continue to be felt through tonight. Breezy NE`rly winds will continue through tonight given the pressure gradient remains pinched between the departing Imelda and strong high pressure ridging building in from the north. In general have seen gusts up around 25-35 mph along the OBX and coast with gusts around 15-25 mph inland. Highs got into low to mid 70s across ENC today. As we get into tonight, upper and surface ridging continue to extend into ENC keeping things dry outside of a few weak coastal showers well offshore as a coastal trough begins to develop. Steady NE`rly winds at 5-10 mph inland with strong winds along the coast and OBX will keep us well mixed enough to preclude a fog threat. Temps tonight get into the mid to upper 50s inland and low to mid 60s along the coast and OBX. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM Thurs... Key Messages: - Coastal impacts quickly wind down (see coastal flood section for more info) and winds quickly ease today Strong surface high pressure continues to build in to the area but with Imelda now very far away form the Eastern Seaboard winds should relax quite a bit through the day today with NE`rly winds lowering down to 10-15 mph with gusts up around 20 mph primarily along the OBX. Otherwise expecting primarily dry weather across ENC with just an isolated chance at a shower or two along the immediate coast as a coastal trough sets up. Highs get into the 70s across ENC. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 AM Thursday...Sfc high pressure will be centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast while upper ridging builds across the Eastern CONUS into early next week. NE winds continue Friday night into Saturday, then veer to Ely as the sfc high migrates off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Generally dry weather is expected for most area although a coastal trough offshore may produce a few showers across the coastal waters. Some guidance continues to show some of these showers working their way toward the coast. Temps will be a few degrees below normal through the week with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Temps warm to near normal over the weekend and early next week with highs around 80/lower 80s. By the middle of next week, the upper ridge breaks down as a strong northern stream trough digs into the Northern Plains and Midwest with sfc high pressure migrating farther offshore and sfc cold front approaching from the NW bringing increasing chances of showers across the region. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 6:45 PM Thursday...Predominantly VFR conditions expected through tomorrow with high pressure building in from the north. Tonight, expect mostly clear skies with a few low clouds around 4kft and NE winds around 5-15 kt, which will keep the boundary layer mixed enough to preclude fog development. Tomorrow will be very similar to tonight with slightly greater cloud cover from diurnal cu. A slight chance (<20%) of showers along the immediate coast tomorrow could impact far eastern terminals, but conditions are expected to remain predominantly VFR. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 130 AM Thursday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the long term with high pressure building in from the northeast. NE to E will be less than 15 kt through the period. Cannot rule out patchy late night fog toward the end of the week when winds will be weaker and low levels decouple overnight. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 230 PM Thurs... Key Messages: - Hazardous marine conditions through the period Latest obs show widespread NE`rly winds at about 15-25 kts with gusts up around 25-30 kts and a few gusts up near 35 kts around the Gulf Stream this afternoon as a result of the strong pressure gradient between an incoming high pressure system and the departing post-tropical Imelda. In addition to this, seas across our coastal waters remain hazardous with 10-15 ft seas noted. Expect dangerous marine conditions to continue especially across our coastal waters even as conditions gradually ease through the remainder of the period. Winds are forecast to ease tonight into Fri morning down to 10 to 20 kts with gusts up to 15-25 kts with the strongest gusts likely along our coastal waters and near the Gulf Stream. Seas will also begin to gradually lower through the period falling to 6 to 10 ft tonight and then 5 to 9 ft on Friday. While this will likely spell an end to all inland small crafts by Fri morning, small crafts across all coastal waters will continue through the end of the period given the elevated wind and seas. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 1 AM Thursday... Key Message - Gradually improving marine conditions through the long term but elevated seas will keep Small Craft Advisories across the coastal waters into early next week. High pressure building in from the north will bring NE winds around 10-20 kt on Friday. The high migrates offshore over the weekend with winds becoming easterly around 15 kt or less. Seas around 6-12 ft on Friday will slowly subside through the long term, however seas as high as 6-7 ft expected to keep SCA conditions across the coastal waters through Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 3 PM Thursday...Long period swell and strong NE winds are causing minor to moderate coastal flooding along the OBX and this will continue through Friday evening. Strong NE winds will lead to minor coastal flooding for soundside areas adj to the southern Pamlico Sound, Neuse/Bay/Pamlico Rivers through Friday evening. Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories remain in effect. Oceanside...Lingering powerful long period swell from the combination of ex-hurricanes Humberto and Imelda will persist across ENC beaches through tomorrow, bringing dangerous rip currents, large breaking waves, ocean overwash, coastal flooding, and wave runup impacts. Most significant impacts continue to be across Hatteras Island where 2 to 3 ft AGL of inundation is possible through Friday evening around times of high tide given weakened dune structures across the area. 1 to 2 ft of inundation is possible across Ocracoke where the swell direction and offshore winds will keep impacts more minor. Soundside...Prolonged period of strong NE winds will keep high water in place through Friday evening. 1-2 ft of inundation is expected along the southern Pamlico Sound, Neuse/Bay and Pamlico/Pungo rivers. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ080-094- 194-196-204. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 203>205. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ196-203>205. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ152-154-156-158. && $$ |
| #1246961 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:57 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 652 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 106 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Latest sfc and model analyses show the lingering leftovers of a frontal boundary stretching across the FL east coast, while high pressure keeps establishing over the SE CONUS. Meanwhile, ensembles show a mid/upper lvl trough migrating eastward across the area through tonight, along with continuing moisture advection from the Atlantic by the prevailing sfc ENE flow. The overall synoptic scenario will translate into increasing favorable conditions for showers and thunderstorms to begin developing this afternoon. A wetter pattern will then establish through the next several days with showers and thunderstorms coverage becoming widespread at times, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. Latest radar data shows shower and storm activity still remaining over the Atlantic waters, but additional development and/or coastal storms pushing inland is expected for the rest of today. POPs/Wx grids carry max values in the 70-75 percent range today and tomorrow, with particularly high chances along coastal locations. The Weather Prediction Center is keeping much of SoFlo`s Atlantic coastline under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall through this evening as the moist easterly flow collides with the aforementioned frontal boundary. PWATs are expected to remain over 2 inches, while MUCAPE in the 500-1000 j/kg range will also contribute to increase the potential for locally high rain rates. The increased cloud cover and shower activity should help in keeping max temps in the upper 80s to low 90s, while overnight lows should stay in the low to mid 70s across the whole area. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 An active pattern begins to set up for South Florida today as breezy ENE winds near the surface continue to sustain moisture advection over the region, and an upper level trough is forecast to slide eastward across the Florida peninsula. The combination of these factors will help support scattered showers and thunderstorms developing throughout the day today, generally moving south- southwest. Some of these storms could bring heavy rain and gusty winds, and localized street flooding could be possible with any heavy downpours. Portions of the Palm Beach and Broward county metro areas will be under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding today. The trough will eventually open up as it moves over the Atlantic late tonight, but conditions are forecast to remain unsettled as guidance shows a mid-level low potentially developing over the Bahamas. This would help enhance rainfall chances and coverage overnight and into Friday, especially for areas along the immediate coast, and over the local Atlantic waters. The 00Z HREF 24-hour precip probabilities capture this scenario pretty well, with a handful of spots along the East Coast showing 40-50% chance of exceeding 2" of rain, and a few even showing 30-40% of exceeding 4 inches over the same time period. To that effect, WPC has placed southeast FL under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding. Slightly lower temperatures forecast through the short term period given greater cloud coverage and convective activity. Highs will top out in the upper 80s and low 90s, while overnight lows will stay in the low to mid 70s across the whole area. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 By Saturday, the aforementioned mid-level low is forecast to begin lifting northward, but it`s influence will still be felt across South Florida, where conditions will remain wet and unsettled through the weekend. Rounds of scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon, with POPs in the 50-70% range. Best chances are forecast to be constrained north of Alligator Alley. Surface high will being to build across the area early next week, signaling a return to the more routine summertime regime of easterly winds and afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the interior and southwest. High temperatures through the extended period will generally reach the low 90s, with overnight lows in the low-mid 70s across the interior and up to the upper 70s along the coasts. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 700 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Periods of MVFR/IFR cigs/vis are possible through around 02Z with showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the Atlantic terminals. Showers may linger in the vicinity of the terminals during the late evening and overnight hours. In general, the easterly- northeasterly winds will continue through much of the TAF period, becoming gusty again Friday late morning. Periods of MVFR/IFR are again possible Friday afternoon as thunderstorm activity increases. && .MARINE... Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A moderate northeasterly breeze is expected across the local waters for the rest of the week. Hazardous seas are expected to continue for the Atlantic waters over the next few days as ongoing swell continues behind Hurricane Imelda. Seas will range from 6-9 feet today and are expected to rise further for Friday and this weekend. Additionally, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic waters and the northern Gulf waters through late Friday night. && .BEACHES... Issued at 433 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Fresh onshore flow and elevated swell behind Hurricane Imelda will result in a high risk of rip currents and high surf heights (for Palm Beach county beaches) through the weekend. Minor coastal flooding is possible along the Palm Beach coast during this evenings high tide cycle. The threat expands to the rest of the east coast on Friday and will last through the weekend. This is due to the upcoming king tide cycle, and will likely be exacerbated by the ongoing E/NE swell. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 75 86 76 87 / 60 70 60 60 West Kendall 74 86 74 87 / 50 70 50 70 Opa-Locka 75 86 75 87 / 60 80 60 70 Homestead 74 86 74 87 / 50 70 60 60 Fort Lauderdale 74 84 75 86 / 70 70 60 60 N Ft Lauderdale 75 84 75 86 / 70 70 60 60 Pembroke Pines 75 86 76 88 / 70 80 60 70 West Palm Beach 74 83 75 86 / 70 80 60 70 Boca Raton 74 85 74 87 / 80 80 60 60 Naples 74 88 74 88 / 20 50 20 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ168-172-173. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ168. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-670. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ651-671. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for GMZ656-676. && $$ |
| #1246957 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 438 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New BEACHES... .UPDATE... Issued at 106 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Latest sfc and model analyses show the lingering leftovers of a frontal boundary stretching across the FL east coast, while high pressure keeps establishing over the SE CONUS. Meanwhile, ensembles show a mid/upper lvl trough migrating eastward across the area through tonight, along with continuing moisture advection from the Atlantic by the prevailing sfc ENE flow. The overall synoptic scenario will translate into increasing favorable conditions for showers and thunderstorms to begin developing this afternoon. A wetter pattern will then establish through the next several days with showers and thunderstorms coverage becoming widespread at times, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. Latest radar data shows shower and storm activity still remaining over the Atlantic waters, but additional development and/or coastal storms pushing inland is expected for the rest of today. POPs/Wx grids carry max values in the 70-75 percent range today and tomorrow, with particularly high chances along coastal locations. The Weather Prediction Center is keeping much of SoFlo`s Atlantic coastline under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall through this evening as the moist easterly flow collides with the aforementioned frontal boundary. PWATs are expected to remain over 2 inches, while MUCAPE in the 500-1000 j/kg range will also contribute to increase the potential for locally high rain rates. The increased cloud cover and shower activity should help in keeping max temps in the upper 80s to low 90s, while overnight lows should stay in the low to mid 70s across the whole area. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 An active pattern begins to set up for South Florida today as breezy ENE winds near the surface continue to sustain moisture advection over the region, and an upper level trough is forecast to slide eastward across the Florida peninsula. The combination of these factors will help support scattered showers and thunderstorms developing throughout the day today, generally moving south- southwest. Some of these storms could bring heavy rain and gusty winds, and localized street flooding could be possible with any heavy downpours. Portions of the Palm Beach and Broward county metro areas will be under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding today. The trough will eventually open up as it moves over the Atlantic late tonight, but conditions are forecast to remain unsettled as guidance shows a mid-level low potentially developing over the Bahamas. This would help enhance rainfall chances and coverage overnight and into Friday, especially for areas along the immediate coast, and over the local Atlantic waters. The 00Z HREF 24-hour precip probabilities capture this scenario pretty well, with a handful of spots along the East Coast showing 40-50% chance of exceeding 2" of rain, and a few even showing 30-40% of exceeding 4 inches over the same time period. To that effect, WPC has placed southeast FL under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding. Slightly lower temperatures forecast through the short term period given greater cloud coverage and convective activity. Highs will top out in the upper 80s and low 90s, while overnight lows will stay in the low to mid 70s across the whole area. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 By Saturday, the aforementioned mid-level low is forecast to begin lifting northward, but it`s influence will still be felt across South Florida, where conditions will remain wet and unsettled through the weekend. Rounds of scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon, with POPs in the 50-70% range. Best chances are forecast to be constrained north of Alligator Alley. Surface high will being to build across the area early next week, signaling a return to the more routine summertime regime of easterly winds and afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the interior and southwest. High temperatures through the extended period will generally reach the low 90s, with overnight lows in the low-mid 70s across the interior and up to the upper 70s along the coasts. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 116 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Periods of MVFR/IFR cigs/vis are possible through this evening as showers and thunderstorms develop over the Atlantic metro areas, and around Naples. Some storms may produce brief gusty winds in the 20-40kt range at times. In general, breezy easterly- northeasterly winds will continue through much of the TAF period with VFR returning after 02-03Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A moderate northeasterly breeze is expected across the local waters for the rest of the week. Hazardous seas are expected to continue for the Atlantic waters over the next few days as ongoing swell continues behind Hurricane Imelda. Seas will range from 6-9 feet today and are expected to rise further for Friday and this weekend. Additionally, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic waters and the northern Gulf waters through late Friday night. && .BEACHES... Issued at 433 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Fresh onshore flow and elevated swell behind Hurricane Imelda will result in a high risk of rip currents and high surf heights (for Palm Beach county beaches) through the weekend. Minor coastal flooding is possible along the Palm Beach coast during this evenings high tide cycle. The threat expands to the rest of the east coast on Friday and will last through the weekend. This is due to the upcoming king tide cycle, and will likely be exacerbated by the ongoing E/NE swell. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 75 86 76 87 / 60 70 60 60 West Kendall 74 86 74 87 / 50 70 50 70 Opa-Locka 75 86 75 87 / 60 80 60 70 Homestead 74 86 74 87 / 50 70 60 60 Fort Lauderdale 74 84 75 86 / 70 70 60 60 N Ft Lauderdale 75 84 75 86 / 70 70 60 60 Pembroke Pines 75 86 76 88 / 70 80 60 70 West Palm Beach 74 83 75 86 / 70 80 60 70 Boca Raton 74 85 74 87 / 80 80 60 60 Naples 74 88 74 88 / 20 50 20 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ168-172-173. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ168. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-670. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ651-671. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Saturday for GMZ656-676. && $$ |
| #1246956 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:51 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 343 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New BEACHES... .UPDATE... Issued at 106 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Latest sfc and model analyses show the lingering leftovers of a frontal boundary stretching across the FL east coast, while high pressure keeps establishing over the SE CONUS. Meanwhile, ensembles show a mid/upper lvl trough migrating eastward across the area through tonight, along with continuing moisture advection from the Atlantic by the prevailing sfc ENE flow. The overall synoptic scenario will translate into increasing favorable conditions for showers and thunderstorms to begin developing this afternoon. A wetter pattern will then establish through the next several days with showers and thunderstorms coverage becoming widespread at times, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. Latest radar data shows shower and storm activity still remaining over the Atlantic waters, but additional development and/or coastal storms pushing inland is expected for the rest of today. POPs/Wx grids carry max values in the 70-75 percent range today and tomorrow, with particularly high chances along coastal locations. The Weather Prediction Center is keeping much of SoFlo`s Atlantic coastline under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall through this evening as the moist easterly flow collides with the aforementioned frontal boundary. PWATs are expected to remain over 2 inches, while MUCAPE in the 500-1000 j/kg range will also contribute to increase the potential for locally high rain rates. The increased cloud cover and shower activity should help in keeping max temps in the upper 80s to low 90s, while overnight lows should stay in the low to mid 70s across the whole area. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 An active pattern begins to set up for South Florida today as breezy ENE winds near the surface continue to sustain moisture advection over the region, and an upper level trough is forecast to slide eastward across the Florida peninsula. The combination of these factors will help support scattered showers and thunderstorms developing throughout the day today, generally moving south- southwest. Some of these storms could bring heavy rain and gusty winds, and localized street flooding could be possible with any heavy downpours. Portions of the Palm Beach and Broward county metro areas will be under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding today. The trough will eventually open up as it moves over the Atlantic late tonight, but conditions are forecast to remain unsettled as guidance shows a mid-level low potentially developing over the Bahamas. This would help enhance rainfall chances and coverage overnight and into Friday, especially for areas along the immediate coast, and over the local Atlantic waters. The 00Z HREF 24-hour precip probabilities capture this scenario pretty well, with a handful of spots along the East Coast showing 40-50% chance of exceeding 2" of rain, and a few even showing 30-40% of exceeding 4 inches over the same time period. To that effect, WPC has placed southeast FL under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding. Slightly lower temperatures forecast through the short term period given greater cloud coverage and convective activity. Highs will top out in the upper 80s and low 90s, while overnight lows will stay in the low to mid 70s across the whole area. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 By Saturday, the aforementioned mid-level low is forecast to begin lifting northward, but it`s influence will still be felt across South Florida, where conditions will remain wet and unsettled through the weekend. Rounds of scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon, with POPs in the 50-70% range. Best chances are forecast to be constrained north of Alligator Alley. Surface high will being to build across the area early next week, signaling a return to the more routine summertime regime of easterly winds and afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the interior and southwest. High temperatures through the extended period will generally reach the low 90s, with overnight lows in the low-mid 70s across the interior and up to the upper 70s along the coasts. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 116 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Periods of MVFR/IFR cigs/vis are possible through this evening as showers and thunderstorms develop over the Atlantic metro areas, and around Naples. Some storms may produce brief gusty winds in the 20-40kt range at times. In general, breezy easterly- northeasterly winds will continue through much of the TAF period with VFR returning after 02-03Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A moderate northeasterly breeze is expected across the local waters for the rest of the week. Hazardous seas are expected to continue for the Atlantic waters over the next few days as ongoing swell continues behind Hurricane Imelda. Seas will range from 6-9 feet today and are expected to rise further for Friday and this weekend. Additionally, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic waters and the northern Gulf waters through late Friday night. && .BEACHES... Issued at 333 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Fresh onshore flow and elevated swell behind Hurricane Imelda will result in a high risk of rip currents and high surf heights (for Palm Beach county beaches) through the weekend. Minor coastal flooding is possible along the east coast as early as Friday with higher chances of occurrences likely this weekend into next week. This is due to the upcoming king tide cycle, and will likely be exacerbated by the ongoing E/NE swell. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 75 86 76 87 / 60 70 60 60 West Kendall 74 86 74 87 / 50 70 50 70 Opa-Locka 75 86 75 87 / 60 80 60 70 Homestead 74 86 74 87 / 50 70 60 60 Fort Lauderdale 74 84 75 86 / 70 70 60 60 N Ft Lauderdale 75 84 75 86 / 70 70 60 60 Pembroke Pines 75 86 76 88 / 70 80 60 70 West Palm Beach 74 83 75 86 / 70 80 60 70 Boca Raton 74 85 74 87 / 80 80 60 60 Naples 74 88 74 88 / 20 50 20 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ168-172-173. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ168. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-670. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ651-671. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Saturday for GMZ656-676. && $$ |
| #1246955 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:51 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 349 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered north of the area will bring a breezy but largely seasonable period for the remainder of the week and weekend. Only minor rain chances return much of next week as moisture tries to overrun this high from the south. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Latest surface analysis shows high pressure over the New England coast, which has reached all the way down into the Carolinas. This high has brought cool Canadian air with it, allowing for our first lovely fall air of the season. After lows in the 50s this morning, we have gone up into the mid 70s this afternoon. This high pressure will push a little more offshore and then slide down the mid-Atlantic coast through Friday. Inland areas may be even a bit cooler for tonight`s lows than the night before. Some parts of the Pee Dee region may even bottom out in the upper 40s, though this doesn`t look likely, as I believe enough boundary layer winds keep the radiational cooling in check. Subtle airmass modification starts Friday afternoon, with highs about 2-3 degrees warmer than what we`ve seen today. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A large area of high pressure will be centered off the Delmarva through the period. Ridging in the mid to upper levels will also be close to the area, generally centered north of it. This will bring a breezy period of sunshine and normal temperatures save for a milder Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Ridging both surface and aloft starts to slide offshore Sunday into Monday. This will lead to two main sources of increased rain chances; low level moisture advection and the decreased downward vertical motion association with the mid level ridge. Models are usually a bit too fast in such a moisture return scenario, likely meaning rain holds off until Monday and may be confined to SC over NC-the latest blended guidance seems to agree. Much of next week will have high temperatures that are only a few degrees above climatology whereas nighttime lows will be more significantly elevated. The more legit rain chances may come late in the period as a cold front and upper trough approach from the northwest. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High confidence in VFR for the 18Z TAF period. Gusty northeasterly winds at 18-21 kts continue this afternoon, but should calm inland by sunset this evening. Coastal terminals may still have gusts of 16- 18 kts throughout the night, increasing slightly to 18-20 kts by late Friday morning. Extended Outlook...VFR conditions are expected to prevail. May have some patchy fog over the weekend and into early next week with rain chances returning at the coast. && .MARINE... Through Friday...Small Craft Advisory continues along all coastal waters from Surf City, NC to South Santee River, SC out 20 nm. Stiff northeasterly winds at 20-22 kts decrease slightly to 17-19 kts Friday, with gusts of 25-30 kts following a similar trend to dipping below 25 kts. Seas at 4-5 ft at the coast. Seas up to 20 nm from shore are 6-8 ft at first, but relax slightly to 6 ft. Friday night through Tuesday...Advisory flags will still be up at the start of the period. Even though wave bulletins show dominant period dropping to 7 ft (i.e., the tropical swells have abated), the long fetch of NE winds will still be piling up enough water for 6 ft seas especially well away from shore. Over the weekend, the NE flow will turn slightly to the E as high pressure to our north finds a center slightly E of the cold location. Locally, this won`t be very effective in reducing conditions below thresholds, as this may have to wait until early next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for east- facing beaches through this evening. Remnants of Imelda and Humberto swell will intertwine along with the addition of large short period wind waves resulting from strong NE winds as synoptic high pressure ridges across the area from the north. The strong NE wind driven waves will continue through the end of the work week while the 2 remnants of tropical cyclone swell trains slowly subside. Minor coastal flooding during this evening`s high tide cycle expected along coastal Pender, New Hanover, and Brunswick Counties, in addition to the lower Cape Fear River at downtown Wilmington. This is expected to occur over the next few late afternoon/early evening high tide cycles. The coastal SC counties may need similar advisories by the weekend, but we`re not there just yet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1246954 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:45 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 334 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 324 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Wet weather pattern next several days with increased winds/moisture off the Atlantic supporting locally heavy rainfall. Localized flooding will be a concern, especially along the coast where a Flood Watch has been issued through Saturday night. - Prolonged, dangerous beach and marine conditions will continue into the weekend with life-threatening rip currents, high surf with breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet, and minor to moderate beach erosion especially near times of high tide&& .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Rest of Today-Tonight...There is increasing potential for locally heavy rainfall leading to flooding along the coast, the starting on the Treasure Coast this afternoon, then gradually shifting northward Friday and Saturday, and a Flood Watch has been issued for all East Central Florida coastal counties through Saturday night. For the rest of today and tonight, an axis of high moisture lifting northward in freshening onshore flow from a tightening pressure gradient on the south side of high pressure over the eastern seaboard will support rounds of onshore moving showers, especially along the Treasure Coast. 12Z HREF guidance calls for mean rainfall amounts of 2-5", and 90th percentile values over 6", which would lead to flooding of roads, urban low- lying, and poor drainage area if realized. Individual HRRR runs have called for some eye watering rainfall amounts over 10" which could result in greater flooding impacts, but there is very low confidence in that scenario. Chances for overnight heavy rainfall and flooding along the coast corridor decrease northward, but could still seem some 1-3" rainfall amounts with locally higher values. The threat for heavy rainfall and flooding drops off inland of the coastal corridor where coastal convergence is maximized, but bands of showers will be expected across the rest of the area through the night, with a non-zero threat for heavy rainfall and minor flooding. Beach and marine conditions remain hazardous as onshore flow increases again and we continue to see long period swell produced by Imelda and Humberto reach the coast. High Surf Advisories, Rip Current Statements, and Small Craft Advisories remain in effect. Entering this life-threatening surf is not advised. Friday-Saturday...There is potential for a disturbance to develop over the Atlantic waters near Southeast Florida along the remnant frontal boundary and axis of high moisture. The National Hurricane Center currently has a low (10%) chance of tropical development over the next 7 days, but any development of the feature, closed low or even an open wave, would cause the pressure gradient along the East Central Florida coast to further tighten and increase onshore flow. Easterly winds 15-25 mph with higher gusts would worsen already hazardous beach conditions, and in a very high moisture and low instability environment supporting efficient rain makers, further enhancing the potential for locally heavy rainfall leading to flooding. This threat will be highest along the coastal corridor where coastal convergence will cause onshore moving showers and storms to pile up. Rounds of these showers are forecast to produce widespread rainfall amounts of 1.5-3" along the coast, and locations that see multiple rounds of heavy rainfall and/or training of showers have a medium (40%) chance of locally high amounts of 3-5", and there is a low (10%) chance for one or two locations to receive 5-8" of rainfall through Sunday morning. Areas where soils are reaching saturation from previous heavy rainfall will have higher sensitivity to additional rainfall, particularly coastal Volusia and portions of the Treasure Coast. Confidence where these locally higher rainfall amounts will occur is low, but there has been a fairly consistent signal for the coast south of the Cape Friday, shifting northward to include most of the coast Saturday, with this highest over all chances Saturday. WPC has issued a Slight (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall/flash flooding in these aforementioned areas while the remaining parts of the coast are in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk. All that sad, widespread flooding is not expected, and most locations are going to see the lower end of these forecast values. Rainfall amounts will vary significantly across relatively small areas, and we may see cases where only a couple neighborhoods see significant rainfall that leads to flooding. Showers are expected to push inland, but once they get west of that coastal convergence zone the risk for excessive rain decreases, though is non-zero. Most likely inland rainfall amounts are 0.5-2.0", but some locally higher amounts are possible. On the St Johns River, Astor is forecast to reach Moderate Flood stage by the weekend, and heavy rainfall could cause rises on other sections of the basin. At the beaches, large breaking wave of 5-8 ft are will continue to pound the coast, producing high/rough surf and numerous life- threatening rip currents. While overall water levels are currently forecast to remain below coastal flood criteria, wave run-up to the dune will still cause minor to moderate erosion near the times of high tide. Numerous coastal hazard products remain in effect, including High Surf Advisories, Rip Current Statements, and Small Craft Advisories. Sunday-Wednesday...Forecast confidence in the long-term decreases due to uncertainty how (of if) the disturbance evolves. Guidance agrees it should depart the area by Monday, but how developed it becomes, what direction it goes is less clear, and how much moisture is dragged across the area in its wake is less clear. For what it`s worth, 12Z guidance is in decent agreement for a quick north-northwestward track across peninsula as an open wave or very weak closed low, continuing moderate onshore/easterly flow with the GFS opting for higher moisture and the ECM lower. As a result there is a continued risk for excessive rainfall along the coast corridor through at least Monday. Very high rain chances Sunday gradually decrease through the week. && .MARINE... Issued at 324 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 (Modified Previous Discussion) NE to E pressure gradient will continue to tighten over the local Atlc waters the rest of today around high pressure wedging down the eastern seaboard. There is also potential for a weak disturbance to develop over or just south of the waters this weekend. Thus, hazardous to dangerous boating conditions are forecast to continue across the local Atlantic waters over the next several days. Wind speeds 15-25 knots with combined seas (wind wave and swell) of 7-12 feet. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will continue through Sat for all the waters. There should be some relaxation of the pressure gradient Sun-Mon as winds turn E-SE but seas will be slow to subside. An extension of the SCA appears likely to include Sunday, at least for the offshore waters, but given some uncertainty over development of the disturbance, have opted to not extend with this forecast cycle. Meanwhile, moisture increases locally which will promote a high coverage of showers and isolated storms containing heavy rain and cloud to water lightning. Brief waterspouts will also be possible especially where cell mergers occur or spin-ups driven by coastal convergence. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Onshore moving showers persists this afternoon, with VCSH at all terminals starting at 18Z. Showers will begin to decrease across the north later this afternoon, with VCSH ending at DAB and LEE at 19Z, which will continue through the overnight. VCSH will end at 01Z for all the interior sites through the overnight hours, with VCSH persisting along the coast tonight. Breezy northeast to east winds this afternoon at 10-15 KT with gusts 20-30 KT. Winds will begins to decrease to around 10KT across the interior into the evening and overnight, with the coast staying around 10-15 KT with gusts 20-25 KT. NE winds will increase once again by mid morning Friday, with speeds 10-15 KT with gusts 20-25 KT. Have VCSH starting at 15Z on Friday for all sites and persisting through the TAF period. Mainly VFR conditions with brief MVFR conditions in showers. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 82 73 82 / 40 60 50 70 MCO 73 84 73 84 / 30 60 40 70 MLB 75 83 75 83 / 40 70 60 70 VRB 74 83 75 84 / 60 70 70 70 LEE 72 84 72 83 / 10 40 30 60 SFB 73 83 73 83 / 30 50 50 70 ORL 73 84 73 83 / 30 50 40 70 FPR 74 83 74 84 / 70 70 70 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for FLZ041-141-154-159-164- 247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ550-552-555- 570-572-575. && $$ |
| #1246953 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:39 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 325 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather continues as high pressure slowly moves across southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. A prolonged period of dry weather with above- normal temperatures this weekend through early next week, as high pressure is the predominant weather feature. A pattern shift comes middle part of next week with the next chance of rain and cooler, albeit seasonable temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Key Messages: * Decreasing winds through the evening with overnight temps in the mid 30s to low 40s. Details: Few lingering stratocumulus across the South Coast, Cape, and Islands this afternoon, but otherwise sunny and clear under high pressure. While still a little gusty across the outer Cape and Islands, winds have significantly decreased compared to yesterday, and will continue to decrease into the evening. Relative Humidity will increase overnight, allowing for some light cloud formation... keeping temperatures tonight from plummeting along the coast; however, temperatures throughout the interior are likely to reach as low as the mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: * Warming trend as we head into the weekend, with afternoon highs in the mid 70s. High pressure pushes into the Mid-Atlantic region, allowing for increased southerly flow and warmer temperatures heading into the weekend. The southern coast will be a little cooler with highs in the upper 60s, but highs elsewhere should reach into the lower to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Messages: * Continued stretch of dry weather through Tuesday, next chance for rain middle of next week. * Very mild and comfortable temperatures for early October beginning this weekend will continue through Tuesday, with a trend for seasonable temperatures by the middle part of next week. There were no significant changes to the extended forecast period as guidance continues to support a long duration of dry weather, as a mid-level ridge and surface high pressure remain in control. Next chance of rain arrives the middle of next week, around Wednesday, as the ridge moves off shore and a mid-level trough approaches from the west. Given the current set up, temperature wise, expecting above normal stretch of afternoon highs and overnight lows. 850mb temperatures are expected to remain several degrees Celsius above normal, thus will result in a mild stretch. Afternoon highs will climb into the upper-70s to low-80s, while Cape Cod, the Islands, and coastal areas have afternoon highs in the low-70s. For overnight lows, those range between the lower and upper-50s. Reference point, highs for early October range between from the mid-60s to 70F. Overnight lows, those range between the upper-40s to low-50s. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update: Today: High confidence. Few lingering low-end VFR/MVFR stratocumulus clouds over southeast airports should lift/scatter out by 21z. NE winds continue to decrease this afternoon, with light E/SE winds towards late this afternoon. Tonight and Friday: High confidence. VFR. Light winds tonight, then becoming southerly 5-10 kt on Fri. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. E winds 5-10 kt slowly turn clockwise to ESE thru the evening. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday through Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. SCAs remain for the outer waters through early Friday, and will likely be able to drop them tonight. Wave heights 5-7 ft slowly decrease through the night while winds have been sub-SCA throughout today. Winds and seas are sub-SCA for Friday, with SW winds around 10-15 kt (locally around 20 kt over northeast waters) and seas 3-4 ft. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Saturday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ250-254>256. && $$ |
| #1246952 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:18 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 315 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds north of the region tonight and settles southward on Friday. A warm-up is expected heading into the weekend, with dry conditions continuing into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 315 PM EDT Thursday... Key Message: - Very pleasant this afternoon and tonight with low humidity. Afternoon analysis shows 1032mb high pressure centered over New England with an upper ridge in place across the eastern CONUS. Satellite imagery shows scattered to broken cumulus clouds with bases between 4000-5000 ft. Still rather breezy near the coast this afternoon, especially from VA Beach southward where the pressure gradient remains compressed. Temperatures this afternoon are below seasonal norms, generally in the upper 60s and low 70s with dew points in the upper 40s to low 50s. Clouds are expected to thin out this evening with mostly clear conditions inland and perhaps a few more clouds hanging on near the coast. Winds become light inland tonight with a slight breeze continuing near the coast. Not expecting much if any fog formation overnight with the dry airmass in place. Overnight lows will continue below normal with temps ranging from the mid to upper 40s inland and low 50s near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Dry and comfortable conditions expected this weekend with a slow warming trend. High pressure sinks southward over the area on Friday with a mix of clouds and sun resulting in temps generally in the low to mid 70s (highest S). Calm winds and mostly clear skies Friday night result in low temps in the mid to upper 40s inland and low to mid 50s near the water. Generally clear skies expected on Saturday with temps rising into the mid and upper 70s (again highest S) with high pressure nudging off the coast late. Not quite as cool Saturday night with lows mainly in the low to mid 50s, though some upper 40s are possible in the cooler rural locations NW of Richmond and some low 60s are possible near the coast in NE NC and up into the VA Beach vicinity. Warming trend continues on Sunday as high pressure becomes centered offshore and SE low level winds develop. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s expected with a few more clouds across the south. Lows Sunday night fall into the mid 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 315 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Continued warmer temperatures to start the week, with a chance for rain midweek as a front approaches the region. The synoptic pattern on Monday will remain the similar to the weekend with ridging aloft and high pressure dominating at the surface, but an upper-level trough will be approaching the region from the Great Lakes area. This will shove the high off the Mid- Atlantic coast, which will result in winds shifting to a more southerly direction. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be above normal for this time of year, likely reaching near 80F into the lower 80s. The next best shot at rain will be late Tuesday through early Thursday as a surface front associated with the aforementioned upper trough approaches the area. Cooler temperatures and a return to dry conditions is expected on Thursday. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 100 PM EDT Thursday... 1034mb high pressure is centered over New England this aftn. VFR with SCT-BKN SC with bases of 3.5-4.5kft. The wind is NE 8-12kt, with gusts to ~20kt at ORF and ECG. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tonight and into Friday as high pressure slowly builds in from the N. Clouds diminish tonight, with SCT CU developing late Friday morning into the aftn. The wind becomes very light away from the coast tonight, but remains NE 5-10kt at ORF and ECG. The wind will generally be E to NE 5-10kt Friday at most sites, and 8-12kt at ORF and ECG. Primarily VFR conditions are anticipated through Friday night through Tuesday as high pressure remains over the region, with the only exception being any early morning shallow ground fog. && .MARINE... As of 315 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Gradually improving marine conditions through Saturday as high pressure settles into the region. - Benign conditions expected Sunday into early next week. Marine conditions continue to improve this afternoon as high pressure, centered to the NE, builds into the region. Still have enough of a pressure gradient and CAA to support breezy NE winds of 15-20kt over the lower bay and coastal waters (10-15kt elsewhere). Seas are still rather elevated at 7 to 9ft for most of the waters and up to 11ft in the NC waters. Waves are at 1 to 3ft. SCAs are still in effect for all coastal waters, the lower bay and lower James, and Currituck Sound as of 3pm. Winds will continue to diminish overnight as that high builds south and the pressure gradient loosens. By tomorrow morning, expecting NE winds to be down to 5-10kt over most of the waters and up to 15kt over the NC coastal waters. Seas will be slow to diminish given the onshore winds and any lingering swell from the artists formerly known as Imelda and Humberto. Expecting seas to still be up at 5-7ft tomorrow morning. Winds really drop off tomorrow and through the weekend to ~5kt as the center of the high pressure drops south. SCAs may continue into Saturday, though, due to the seas being over 5ft. Northern seas likely drop below 5ft Sat morning, but southern waters linger at 5ft into the evening. Benign marine conditions then expected Sunday into early next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 315 PM EDT Thursday... Starting to see tidal anomalies level off or drop at most sites, which lines up with the lighter winds and strong ebb tide at the mouth of the bay that occurred earlier today. That being said, still expecting another round of minor tidal flooding at many of the sites with tonight`s high tide. Did not make many changes to the Coastal Flood Advisories previously issued, and these will get us through this evening`s cycle. Only change was to issue an Advisory for the tidal Potomac/Northern Neck for this evening after the warning there expired. Should be done with coastal flooding (for now anyway) in the lower bay after tonight, but minor tidal flooding looks to linger for points N of Windmill Point into tomorrow. Did not issue anything for tomorrow`s tides, however, since there is a little more uncertainty with how that will play out given the ebb tide today. Will be looking to see how tonight`s tide goes before issuing additional headlines. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for MDZ021>023. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for VAZ075>078- 522. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ082- 084>086-089-090-093-523. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ083- 518-520. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095>098-524-525. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632- 638. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658. && $$ |
| #1246951 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:18 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 206 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1232 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Rain and storm chances slowly increase through the weekend. Highest rain chances will be on Sunday. - Winds and seas will increase today through this weekend leading to Small Craft Advisory conditions. - Minor coastal flooding along east facing shores of southeast LA, including portions of the tidal lakes, and Hancock, MS county expected Friday and into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Little change in thinking from the previous forecast packages through Saturday night. A broad area of low pressure over the Gulf will continue to gradually strengthen resulting in an increasing pressure gradient across the region. This will allow for a persistent easterly flow regime with winds of 10 to 15 mph and gusts over 20 mph to remain in place through Saturday night. These east winds will combine with a long fetch across the northern Gulf to push some water up on our east facing shorelines resulting in some minor coastal flooding concerns. A coastal flood advisory is now in effect starting tomorrow afternoon and continuing through Sunday afternoon for flooding of 1 to 2 feet above ground level. Any flooding will be confined to the high tide cycles which will occur in the afternoon and early evening hours. Beyond the coastal flooding concerns, our rain chances will also gradually ramp up each day as the easterly flow pattern advects in a more moist airmass. However, the moisture spread will be uneven with the deepest moisture expected along the coast where PWATS will run between the median and 75th percentile on Friday and Saturday. Further inland in southwest Mississippi and areas around Baton Rouge, much drier air will linger through Saturday and this will greatly limit the rain chances in these areas. Preciptiable water values will struggle to approach the median for this time of year by Saturday afternoon in southwest Mississippi. PoP forecasts show this moisture gradient quite well with PoP of 40 to 60 percent south of I-10 and 10 to 30 percent north of I-10 through the short term period. The increased moisture, cloud development, and rainfall will also help to temper the heat across the region. Overall spread in the guidance is pretty low in terms of temperatures, and the forecast calls for daytime highs to be near average or in the mid 80s on both Friday and Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 All of the guidance remains in good agreement that the weak low in the Gulf will move inland on Sunday. As this occurs, a broad area of increased lift and an increase moisture across the region to at least the 75th percentile will support higher rain chances across the entire forecast area. The deepest moisture will still be south of I-10, where precipitable water values could approach daily max values, and this would be the primary area of concern for any heavier rainfall to develop. However, the extent and duration of the heavy rainfall will remain limited with the primary concern being some localized street flooding in more urbanized locations. Further inland, heavy rainfall is not expected, but some beneficial rainfall of up to half an inch is probable. The rainfall will not be enough to ease the ongoing moderate drought conditions, but any rain will help at this juncture. The stronger easterly flow will also continue on Sunday and minor coastal flooding will continue during the high tide cycle Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will also be cooler than average due to the extensive cloud cover that is expected with the passage of the low. Highs are only forecast to warm into the lower 80s. The low pressure will weaken and dissipate over the Deep South on Monday and Tuesday as a strong deep layer ridge builds back over the region. As the ridge intensifies and subsidence increases in the mid and upper levels, a strengthening mid-level inversion will help to suppress convective activity. A decline in deeper moisture will also occur over the extended period early next week with precipitable water values falling back to around the 25th percentile by Wednesday. Rain chances will turn from more scattered coverage on Monday to very isolated coverage by Wednesday. Coastal flooding concerns will also come to an end by Monday as the easterly flow weakens to less than 10 mph. Temperatures will gradually warm as the ridge builds in with highs rising back into the upper 80s and lower 90s, or around 5 degrees above average, on Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A slightly higher chance of rainfall impacting some of the terminals is the primary forecast concern. HUM, MSY, and NEW could see passing showers briefly reduce visibilities and lower ceilings into MVFR range of 3 to 5 miles and 2500 to 3000 feet starting as early as 08z and more likely by 12z tomorrow morning. PROB30 wording is in place to reflect these conditions. These showers are tied into a developing area of low pressure that is forming over the Gulf. This low will also increase east winds to 10 to 15 knots with occasional gusts to 20 knots at most of the terminals both this afternoon and tomorrow. Otherwise, prevailing VFR conditions are forecast at the terminals through the end of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 An increasing pressure gradient between low pressure in the Gulf and high pressure over New England will bring increasingly hazardous conditions to the waters through the weekend. As the low deepens, a prolonged easterly wind of 15 to 25 knots will develop today and persist through Sunday. The combination of wind waves and swell from a long fetch across the eastern Gulf will produce rough seas of 6 to 10 feet in the open Gulf waters and 3 to 6 feet in the sounds and tidal lakes. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all of the open Gulf waters and the tidal sounds, as well as Lake Borgne from midday through Sunday evening due to these expected rough conditions. Conditions will gradually improve Monday into Tuesday as high pressure becomes more centered over the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 64 86 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 68 86 68 86 / 0 10 0 10 ASD 64 84 66 84 / 10 20 20 30 MSY 73 82 73 82 / 20 30 20 40 GPT 67 84 69 84 / 20 20 20 30 PQL 64 84 67 84 / 10 10 20 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from noon Friday to 6 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ069-070-076-078. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-555-557-575-577. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ550-552-570- 572. MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from noon Friday to 6 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ086. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ534-536-538- 555-557-575-577. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ552-570-572. && $$ |
| #1246950 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:12 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 304 PM AST Thu Oct 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all urban and coastal areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands until 5 PM AST. Stay hydrated and avoid prolonged sun exposure the rest of today and over the coming days. * Showers and thunderstorms along interior and northern portions of Puerto Rico will increase flooding and lightning risk during the next hours. * Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, occasional passing showers during the overnight and Friday morning hours. * A strong, long-period northerly swell will create hazardous marine and beach conditions across the islands through at least early next week. Small Craft Advisories, Rip Current Statements, and High Surf Advisories are in effect. More details on timing and location can be found at the end of the following discussion. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday... Below normal to slightly below normal precipitable water (PWAT) values are being observed over the islands under a light southeasterly steering flow. Current satellite derived PWAT values indicate 1.3 (southern PR) to 1.6 inches over Puerto Rico, around 1. 58 inches over Culebra and St. Croix, around 1.53 inches over Vieques and around 1.65 inches over St. Thomas and St. John. Moisture content is expected to continue below normal to normal values on Friday and more normal values on Saturday. This increase in moisture is due to both a weak tropical wave moving mainly south of the islands and a frontal boundary lingering north of the islands. These systems will also increase the potential for more frequent passing showers and showers and t-storms during the afternoon under a mainly SE steering flow. Before that however, current light southeasterly flow will back to become more northeasterly on Friday, a a col area is northeast of the region, and then veer to become southeasterly again by Saturday. Shower and t-storm activity will continue to develop for the rest of this afternoon and evening over mainly around the Cordillera, with radar detecting activity over the NW interior. Showers are also developing at the USVI and under light steering winds will continue to linger at or around the islands this evening. Diurnal heating and local effects will result in afternoon showers and t-storms along the interior each afternoon, steered by the weak above mentioned flow and affecting similar areas on Saturday (with increased coverage due to the wave) and possibly more interior to southern areas tomorrow, Friday. Lighter steering flow tomorrow will also help this convective activity linger longer and prompt at least a limited flooding risk. 925 mb wind speeds will gradually increase as the period continues. Passing showers continue to be forecast across windward sectors each overnight and day. Lines of showers can also develop downwind of the local islands during each afternoon. Minimum temperatures are forecast in the mid to upper 70s along the coastal areas of the islands to the mid to upper 60s over interior PR. Highs are forecast in the upper 80s to low 90s across coastal areas of the islands. In general 925 mb temps are forecast to decrease during the period, still normal to slightly above normal on Friday. .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday... .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 452 AM AST Thu Oct 2 2025/ No major changes were introduced to the long-term forecast. A transition to an unstable and wetter pattern is still anticipated by the beginning of the workweek, with gradual improvement by Wednesday. Global models continue to suggest the approach of an upper-level trough into the CWA by Sunday night. From the deterministic guidance of the GFS and ECMWF, the tendency towards wetter conditions is increasing, as Precipitable Water (PWAT) values may range between 2.0 and 2.2 inches, above the climatological normal. The latest model solutions also suggest a rise in relative humidity content in the low and mid levels as well (> 60 %, up to 80 - 90%) during Monday and Tuesday. In terms of instability, the presence of this upper feature should bring colder than normal 500 mb temperatures (down to -8 degrees Celsius), favorable for the development of strong thunderstorms. The latest Galvez-Davison Index (GDI) tool keeps suggesting the potential of isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the CWA, higher on Monday and Tuesday. As mentioned in the previous discussion, winds will become lighter late Monday night and Tuesday, meaning that theres a high chance of stationary showers and thunderstorms. Given the expected conditions, the potential of flooding and lightning will increase, particularly over mountain ranges and eastern Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Conditions should gradually improve by Wednesday, as a drier air mass may filter into the region. Although PWAT may drop to seasonal values (1.5 - 1.7 inches), the available moisture combined with diurnal heating and local effects could trigger convection activity in the afternoon, affecting mainly portions of interior and western Puerto Rico, including the San Juan Metropolitan Area. Nevertheless, the likeliest scenario could be mostly ponding of water over roadways, urban, and poorly drained areas. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa in the next few days, with a 20% chance of cyclonic formation in the next 7 days. The latest model solutions suggest an increase in moisture content due to this tropical wave approaching the Caribbean Basin by late Thursday night, but the variability between them is high, introducing uncertainty to the forecast. Hence, well keep monitoring the development of this system. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Mainly VFR conditions expected. Afternoon VCSH will affect most terminals with VCTS forecast for TJBQ, TJPS and TJPS until around 23Z. Light SSE winds will continue, dominated by sea breeze variations. Winds will be light and variable with land breezes after 01/23Z, gradually gaining a northerly component overnight picking up again as light NE flow with sea breeze variations after 03/13Z. && .MARINE... Light to gentle southeasterly winds will continue for the next few days due to a col area near the region. A strong, long-period north to northwesterly swell spreading across the Atlantic waters will create hazardous marine conditions across the islands through at least early next week. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect across the Atlantic Waters, northwest PR, and Mona Passage from midnight tonight to 4 AM AST Monday due to seas around 7 to 10 feet expected. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. Additionally, a weak tropical wave is expected to move over the area this weekend, while a frontal boundary will remain positioned to the north over the Atlantic. && .BEACH FORECAST... A strong, long-period northerly swell will create hazardous beach conditions across the islands through at least early next week. A high risk of rip currents is in effect from 2 PM AST through at least late Monday night across beaches along the west, north, and east coasts of Puerto Rico, as well as in Culebra and St. Thomas. Additional areas may be added in the coming days. Also, a High Surf Advisory is in effect for these same areas from 6 AM AST tomorrow, Friday, through, at least 6 AM AST Monday, due to breaking waves above 10 feet. This conditions will likely produce localized beach erosion and dangerous swimming conditions. Citizens and visitors are encouraged to continue monitoring the beach forecast and heed the advice of the flag warning system. Beachgoers, do not risk your life, is better to stay out of the water! && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...Heat Advisory until 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001>005-007- 008-010>013. High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012. High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 6 AM AST Monday for PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012. VI...Heat Advisory until 5 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ001-002. High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for VIZ001. High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 6 AM AST Monday for VIZ001. AM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM AST Monday for AMZ711. Small Craft Advisory from noon Friday to 4 AM AST Monday for AMZ712-716-741-742. && $$ |
| #1246949 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:00 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 247 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Imelda continues to move away from the Eastern Seaboard but will continue to bring coastal impacts to the area through Friday. High pressure will build in from the north through this weekend continuing to bring NE to E`rly flow to Eastern North Carolina with seasonable temperatures and generally dry conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 PM Thurs... Key Messages: - Gusty NE winds continue - Coastal impacts continue (see coastal flood section) Although Imelda continues to track northeastwards further out to sea and away from the Eastern Seaboard, this systems impact to ENC will continue to be felt through tonight. Breezy NE`rly winds will continue through tonight given the pressure gradient remains pinched between the departing Imelda and strong high pressure ridging building in from the north. In general have seen gusts up around 25-35 mph along the OBX and coast with gusts around 15-25 mph inland. Highs got into low to mid 70s across ENC today. As we get into tonight, upper and surface ridging continue to extend into ENC keeping things dry outside of a few weak coastal showers well offshore as a coastal trough begins to develop. Steady NE`rly winds at 5-10 mph inland with strong winds along the coast and OBX will keep us well mixed enough to preclude a fog threat. Temps tonight get into the mid to upper 50s inland and low to mid 60s along the coast and OBX. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM Thurs... Key Messages: - Coastal impacts quickly wind down (see coastal flood section for more info) and winds quickly ease today Strong surface high pressure continues to build in to the area but with Imelda now very far away form the Eastern Seaboard winds should relax quite a bit through the day today with NE`rly winds lowering down to 10-15 mph with gusts up around 20 mph primarily along the OBX. Otherwise expecting primarily dry weather across ENC with just an isolated chance at a shower or two along the immediate coast as a coastal trough sets up. Highs get into the 70s across ENC. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 AM Thursday...Sfc high pressure will be centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast while upper ridging builds across the Eastern CONUS into early next week. NE winds continue Friday night into Saturday, then veer to Ely as the sfc high migrates off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Generally dry weather is expected for most area although a coastal trough offshore may produce a few showers across the coastal waters. Some guidance continues to show some of these showers working their way toward the coast. Temps will be a few degrees below normal through the week with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Temps warm to near normal over the weekend and early next week with highs around 80/lower 80s. By the middle of next week, the upper ridge breaks down as a strong northern stream trough digs into the Northern Plains and Midwest with sfc high pressure migrating farther offshore and sfc cold front approaching from the NW bringing increasing chances of showers across the region. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 1PM Thurs...Expecting predominantly VFR conditions across ENC through Friday. Breezy conditions will remain in place today with gusts up around 15-20 kts this afternoon. While winds will be much weaker tonight, we will remain well mixed and therefore limit any potential fog threat. Lower clouds around 4-5 kft expected this afternoon. This cloud deck is forecast to change little through tonight through a few periods of sub-VFR conditions will be possible across the OBX tonight through Friday morning though chances are low (<20%) this occurs. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 130 AM Thursday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the long term with high pressure building in from the northeast. NE to E will be less than 15 kt through the period. Cannot rule out patchy late night fog toward the end of the week when winds will be weaker and low levels decouple overnight. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 230 PM Thurs... Key Messages: - Hazardous marine conditions through the period Latest obs show widespread NE`rly winds at about 15-25 kts with gusts up around 25-30 kts and a few gusts up near 35 kts around the Gulf Stream this afternoon as a result of the strong pressure gradient between an incoming high pressure system and the departing post-tropical Imelda. In addition to this, seas across our coastal waters remain hazardous with 10-15 ft seas noted. Expect dangerous marine conditions to continue especially across our coastal waters even as conditions gradually ease through the remainder of the period. Winds are forecast to ease tonight into Fri morning down to 10 to 20 kts with gusts up to 15-25 kts with the strongest gusts likely along our coastal waters and near the Gulf Stream. Seas will also begin to gradually lower through the period falling to 6 to 10 ft tonight and then 5 to 9 ft on Friday. While this will likely spell an end to all inland small crafts by Fri morning, small crafts across all coastal waters will continue through the end of the period given the elevated wind and seas. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 1 AM Thursday... Key Message - Gradually improving marine conditions through the long term but elevated seas will keep Small Craft Advisories across the coastal waters into early next week. High pressure building in from the north will bring NE winds around 10-20 kt on Friday. The high migrates offshore over the weekend with winds becoming easterly around 15 kt or less. Seas around 6-12 ft on Friday will slowly subside through the long term, however seas as high as 6-7 ft expected to keep SCA conditions across the coastal waters through Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 3 PM Thursday...Long period swell and strong NE winds are causing minor to moderate coastal flooding along the OBX and this will continue through Friday evening. Strong NE winds will lead to minor coastal flooding for soundside areas adj to the southern Pamlico Sound, Neuse/Bay/Pamlico Rivers through Friday evening. Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories remain in effect. Oceanside...Lingering powerful long period swell from the combination of ex-hurricanes Humberto and Imelda will persist across ENC beaches through tomorrow, bringing dangerous rip currents, large breaking waves, ocean overwash, coastal flooding, and wave runup impacts. Most significant impacts continue to be across Hatteras Island where 2 to 3 ft AGL of inundation is possible through Friday evening around times of high tide given weakened dune structures across the area. 1 to 2 ft of inundation is possible across Ocracoke where the swell direction and offshore winds will keep impacts more minor. Soundside...Prolonged period of strong NE winds will keep high water in place through Friday evening. 1-2 ft of inundation is expected along the southern Pamlico Sound, Neuse/Bay and Pamlico/Pungo rivers. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ080-094- 194-196-204. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 203>205. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ196-203>205. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ131- 230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ152-154-156-158. && $$ |
| #1246948 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:54 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 251 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered north of the area will bring a breezy but largely seasonable period for the remainder of the week and weekend. Only minor rain chances return much of next week as moisture tries to overrun this high from the south. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Latest surface analysis shows high pressure over the New England coast, which has reached all the way down into the Carolinas. This high has brought cool Canadian air with it, allowing for our first lovely fall air of the season. After lows in the 50s this morning, we have gone up into the mid 70s this afternoon. This high pressure will push a little more offshore and then slide down the mid-Atlantic coast through Friday. Inland areas may be even a bit cooler for tonight`s lows than the night before. Some parts of the Pee Dee region may even bottom out in the upper 40s, though this doesn`t look likely, as I believe enough boundary layer winds keep the radiational cooling in check. Subtle airmass modification starts Friday afternoon, with highs about 2-3 degrees warmer than what we`ve seen today. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A large area of high pressure will be centered off the Delmarva through the period. Ridging in the mid to upper levels will also be close to the area, generally centered north of it. This will bring a breezy period of sunshine and normal temperatures save for a milder Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Ridging both surface and aloft starts to slide offshore Sunday into Monday. This will lead to two main sources of increased rain chances; low level moisture advection and the decreased downward vertical motion association with the mid level ridge. Models are usually a bit too fast in such a moisture return scenario, likely meaning rain holds off until Monday and may be confined to SC over NC-the latest blended guidance seems to agree. Much of next week will have high temperatures that are only a few degrees above climatology whereas nighttime lows will be more significantly elevated. The more legit rain chances may come late in the period as a cold front and upper trough approach from the northwest. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High confidence in VFR for the 18Z TAF period. Gusty northeasterly winds at 18-21 kts continue this afternoon, but should calm inland by sunset this evening. Coastal terminals may still have gusts of 16- 18 kts throughout the night, increasing slightly to 18-20 kts by late Friday morning. Extended Outlook...Extended Outlook...VFR conditions are expected to prevail. May have some patchy fog over the weekend and into early next week with rain chances returning at the coast. && .MARINE... Through Friday...Small Craft Advisory continues along all coastal waters from Surf City, NC to South Santee River, SC out 20 nm. Stiff northeasterly winds at 20-22 kts decrease slightly to 17-19 kts Friday, with gusts of 25-30 kts following a similar trend to dipping below 25 kts. Seas at 4-5 ft at the coast. Seas up to 20 nm from shore are 6-8 ft at first, but relax slightly to 6 ft. Friday night through Tuesday... Advisory flags will still be up at the start of the period. Even though wave bulletins show dominant period dropping to 7 ft (i.e. th.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for AMZ250-252-254-256.e tropical swells have abated) the long fetch of NE winds will still be piling up enough water for 6 ft seas especially well away from shore. Over the weekend the NE flow will turn slightly to the E as high pressure to our north finds a center slightly E of the cold location. Locally this won`t be very effective in reducing conditions below thresholds, as this may have to wait until early next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for east- facing beaches through this evening. Remnants of Imelda and Humberto swell will intertwine along with the addition of large short period wind waves resulting from strong NE winds as synoptic high pressure ridges across the area from the north. The strong NE wind driven waves will continue through the end of the work week while the 2 remnants of tropical cyclone swell trains slowly subside. Minor coastal flooding during this evening`s high tide cycle expected along coastal Pender, New Hanover, and Brunswick Counties, in addition to the lower Cape Fear River at downtown Wilmington. This is expected to occur over the next few late afternoon/early evening high tide cycles. The coastal SC counties may need similar advisories by the weekend, but we`re not there just yet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1246947 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:51 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 135 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1259 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Hazardous beach conditions this weekend becoming more likely due to minor coastal flooding and an increased risk of rip currents. - Daily low to medium (20-50%) chance of showers and storms Friday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Very little changes were required today from the previous forecast package. A few showers could still develop inland along the sea breeze this afternoon, but chances remain very low (<15%). However, by Friday, rain and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase, as a mid-level low drifts into our area bringing in deeper moisture over the region. The highest precipitation chances can be expected over the marine zones and Coastal Bend during the weekend, with PoPs rising to around 20-50%. Most of the activity will occur in the afternoon hours due to higher daytime instability and focus along the sea breeze. In terms of accumulations, these will remain low, generally less than a quarter of an inch at most locations through next week. Aside from the convective potential, the other main hazard continues to be an increased risk of rip currents and coastal flooding over the weekend. Astronomical tides will be on the rise through early next week as full moon approaches on Monday. At the same time, swell periods are forecast to increase to around 8 seconds, with a moderate to strong east to northeasterly breeze offshore. The combination of these factors will likely result in tide levels reaching 1.6-1.9 ft MSL, and leading to minor coastal flooding along the Gulf-facing beaches. At this time, there is no advisory in effect, but one will likely be needed either Friday night or Saturday night to account for this. The risk of rip currents remains low today/tonight, but could increase over the weekend to moderate/high. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the cycle at area terminals. The only exception will be a period (09-14Z) of MVFR to potentially IFR conditions at VCT early Friday morning due to patchy fog formation. Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies and a light east to southeasterly wind, becoming variable overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A generally light to gentle easterly breeze (BF 2-3) will continue tonight before increasing to a moderate to strong breeze (BF 4-6) with winds shifting to the northeast on Friday. Winds will hover around advisory criteria through Saturday night before decreasing to a gentle to moderate breeze (BF 3-4) Sunday with winds shifting back to the east to southeast. Low to medium (20-60%) rain and thunderstorm chances return tonight and continue through the weekend. Low (20-30%) rain chances are then in the forecast for next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Afternoon minimum relative humidity will generally range from 25-35% across the Inland Coastal Plains and Brush Country through Friday. Moisture increases Saturday into early next week with minimum relative humidity above 30%. Although Energy Release Component ranges from 50th-90th percentile, weak surface and 20 ft winds will limit the fire risk. Slightly above normal temperatures will continue with low to medium (20-50%) shower and thunderstorm chances Friday and continuing into the middle of next week, mainly along the afternoon seabreeze over the inland Coastal Plains and along the coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 71 91 73 89 / 0 20 10 30 Victoria 67 91 67 91 / 0 20 0 20 Laredo 72 96 71 94 / 0 0 0 10 Alice 68 94 69 92 / 0 10 10 20 Rockport 74 89 75 88 / 0 20 20 30 Cotulla 70 96 70 94 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 68 92 71 90 / 0 20 10 30 Navy Corpus 77 87 78 86 / 0 20 30 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1246946 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:45 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 233 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Imelda continues to move away from the Eastern Seaboard but will continue to bring coastal impacts to the area through Friday. High pressure will build in from the north through this weekend continuing to bring NE to E`rly flow to Eastern North Carolina with seasonable temperatures and generally dry conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 PM Thurs... Key Messages: - Gusty NE winds continue - Coastal impacts continue (see coastal flood section) Although Imelda continues to track northeastwards further out to sea and away from the Eastern Seaboard, this systems impact to ENC will continue to be felt through tonight. Breezy NE`rly winds will continue through tonight given the pressure gradient remains pinched between the departing Imelda and strong high pressure ridging building in from the north. In general have seen gusts up around 25-35 mph along the OBX and coast with gusts around 15-25 mph inland. Highs got into low to mid 70s across ENC today. As we get into tonight, upper and surface ridging continue to extend into ENC keeping things dry outside of a few weak coastal showers well offshore as a coastal trough begins to develop. Steady NE`rly winds at 5-10 mph inland with strong winds along the coast and OBX will keep us well mixed enough to preclude a fog threat. Temps tonight get into the mid to upper 50s inland and low to mid 60s along the coast and OBX. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM Thurs... Key Messages: - Coastal impacts quickly wind down (see coastal flood section for more info) and winds quickly ease today Strong surface high pressure continues to build in to the area but with Imelda now very far away form the Eastern Seaboard winds should relax quite a bit through the day today with NE`rly winds lowering down to 10-15 mph with gusts up around 20 mph primarily along the OBX. Otherwise expecting primarily dry weather across ENC with just an isolated chance at a shower or two along the immediate coast as a coastal trough sets up. Highs get into the 70s across ENC. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 AM Thursday...Sfc high pressure will be centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast while upper ridging builds across the Eastern CONUS into early next week. NE winds continue Friday night into Saturday, then veer to Ely as the sfc high migrates off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Generally dry weather is expected for most area although a coastal trough offshore may produce a few showers across the coastal waters. Some guidance continues to show some of these showers working their way toward the coast. Temps will be a few degrees below normal through the week with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Temps warm to near normal over the weekend and early next week with highs around 80/lower 80s. By the middle of next week, the upper ridge breaks down as a strong northern stream trough digs into the Northern Plains and Midwest with sfc high pressure migrating farther offshore and sfc cold front approaching from the NW bringing increasing chances of showers across the region. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 1PM Thurs...Expecting predominantly VFR conditions across ENC through Friday. Breezy conditions will remain in place today with gusts up around 15-20 kts this afternoon. While winds will be much weaker tonight, we will remain well mixed and therefore limit any potential fog threat. Lower clouds around 4-5 kft expected this afternoon. This cloud deck is forecast to change little through tonight through a few periods of sub-VFR conditions will be possible across the OBX tonight through Friday morning though chances are low (<20%) this occurs. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 130 AM Thursday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the long term with high pressure building in from the northeast. NE to E will be less than 15 kt through the period. Cannot rule out patchy late night fog toward the end of the week when winds will be weaker and low levels decouple overnight. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 230 PM Thurs... Key Messages: - Hazardous marine conditions through the period Latest obs show widespread NE`rly winds at about 15-25 kts with gusts up around 25-30 kts and a few gusts up near 35 kts around the Gulf Stream this afternoon as a result of the strong pressure gradient between an incoming high pressure system and the departing post-tropical Imelda. In addition to this, seas across our coastal waters remain hazardous with 10-15 ft seas noted. Expect dangerous marine conditions to continue especially across our coastal waters even as conditions gradually ease through the remainder of the period. Winds are forecast to ease tonight into Fri morning down to 10 to 20 kts with gusts up to 15-25 kts with the strongest gusts likely along our coastal waters and near the Gulf Stream. Seas will also begin to gradually lower through the period falling to 6 to 10 ft tonight and then 5 to 9 ft on Friday. While this will likely spell an end to all inland small crafts by Fri morning, small crafts across all coastal waters will continue through the end of the period given the elevated wind and seas. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 1 AM Thursday... Key Message - Gradually improving marine conditions through the long term but elevated seas will keep Small Craft Advisories across the coastal waters into early next week. High pressure building in from the north will bring NE winds around 10-20 kt on Friday. The high migrates offshore over the weekend with winds becoming easterly around 15 kt or less. Seas around 6-12 ft on Friday will slowly subside through the long term, however seas as high as 6-7 ft expected to keep SCA conditions across the coastal waters through Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 130 AM Thursday...Long period swell and strong NE winds are causing minor to moderate coastal flooding along the OBX and this will continue through Friday. Strong NE winds will lead to minor coastal flooding for soundside areas adj to the southern Pamlico Sound, Neuse/Bay/Pamlico Rivers through tonight. CF Warnings and Advisories remain in effect as water levels will remain elevated. Oceanside...The forecast remains on track as long period swell from Humberto and Imelda continuing to impact the beaches late this week bringing dangerous rip currents, large breaking waves, ocean overwash, coastal flooding, and wave runup impacts. Most significant impacts continue to be across portions of the OBX near Hatteras Island and Ocracoke where 2 to 3 ft AGL of inundation is possible through Friday given weakened dune structures across the area. 1 to 2 ft of inundation is possible across oceanside Crystal Coast and NOBX. The strong NEerly winds due to the strong high pressure may exacerbate the issues brought on from the strong swell. High Surf Advisories remain north of Cape Lookout for rough surf and beach erosion. Soundside...Prolonged period of strong NE winds will lead to water level rises through tonight. 1-2 ft of inundation is expected along the southern Pamlico Sound, Neuse/Bay and Pamlico/Pungo rivers. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ080-094- 194-196-204. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 203>205. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ196-203>205. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ131- 230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ152-154-156-158. && $$ |
| #1246945 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:42 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 229 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 228 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the rest of today and into tonight. While showers may form over mainland and push over the island chain later this evening, high uncertainty in exact timing and placement will leave mention out of either TAF for now. Near surface winds will be out of the northeast to east at 5 to 10 knots, freshening overnight. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 1135 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 The environment surrounding the Florida Keys is transitioning back to a more seasonal state as high pressure along the Eastern Seaboard settles in. GOES-19 visible imagery notes northeast to east breezes accelerating across the Florida Peninsula while a lazy convergence boundary drifts southwest through our waters. Along this boundary, KBYX radar detects a handful of isolated showers along with an embedded thunderstorm or two. Variable breezes from earlier this morning quickly transitioned to gentle north to northeast breezes as the previously mentioned convergence boundary marched over. Mostly clear skies now persist over the island chain as temperatures report in the mid 80s with dewpoints persisting in the mid to upper 70s. While some pockets of dry air remain in our CWA, the overall thermodynamic profile has moistened up from last night. This morning`s KKEY 12z sounding measured a PW increase of about a tenth of an inch from last night nosing the value above the 25th percentile for the day. While this does not sound all that impressive, northeasterly low level winds will help pull in residual moisture left behind by now Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda over the Florida Peninsula and Bahamas. This flow may also pull in showers that develop on mainland Florida into our eastern waters later today. Opted to hold a chance of showers for the day keeping us near normal for this time of year. As high pressure along the Eastern Seaboard continues to extend south, winds will continue to freshen out of the northeast overnight. Accelerating flow along with the promise of more moisture will keep chance PoPs into tomorrow. && .FORECAST... Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 The main focus for shower development today will be across the mainland during the day and afternoon, which will then drift south to southwest across the island chain. The best chances will across the Upper Keys with the Lower Keys having a lesser chance depending on if the activity holds together. The aforementioned high pressure along the East Coast will slowly attempt to move into the western North Atlantic. As this occurs it will gradually continue to build equatorward and exert more of its influence across the Florida Keys. This will result in freshening northeast to east breezes Friday with an increased threat for showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. Then eyes will turn to a feature that will develop across the Southeastern Bahamas starting Friday. A subtle easterly undulation will be moving along the periphery of the Bermuda High. The trajectory would focus it across South Florida, including the Florida Keys. Models are struggling with any form of organization. Best case scenario it remains a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms with a quasi-warm front lifting north across the area. This would equate to a wet weekend for at least portions of the Keys. Worst case scenario (and we want to preface that the National Hurricane Center only has a 10 percent chance of development at this time) a weak tropical disturbance takes form. At this time, it is way too early to tell what this feature may ultimately become but it does bear watching in the meantime. Whether a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, or a weak tropical disturbance, it will move northwest into the Gulf over the upcoming weekend. By early next week, high pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will fill back in with freshening northeast to east breezes. This combined with residual moisture looks to continue the above normal rain chances. && .MARINE... Issued at 1135 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, high pressure is slowly moving across the eastern U.S., which will maintain a northeast wind across our waters today. This high will begin moving into the western North Atlantic later today and into the overnight and gradually build. This will lead to freshening northeast to east breezes into Friday evening. Winds will then briefly clock around towards the southeast for the upcoming weekend and return from the east early next week. Another period of moderate to fresh breezes is possible starting Monday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 77 88 77 88 / 30 30 40 40 Marathon 77 85 77 87 / 30 40 40 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1246942 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:27 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 218 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Wet weather pattern next several days with increased winds/ moisture off the Atlantic supporting locally heavy rainfall especially along the coast. Localized flooding will be a concern through this weekend. - Prolonged, dangerous beach and marine conditions will continue into the weekend with life-threatening rip currents, high surf with breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet, and minor to moderate beach erosion especially near times of high tide. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1011 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Heavy rainfall threat for this morning materialized across the northern counties where onshore flow increased earlier, producing training bands of moderate to at times heavy showers north of the Beachline, including the Daytona Beach area and portions of the northern Orlando Metro. Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.5-2" and locally high amounts to 4" have been occuring in these bands. This activity will gradually push west and south through the rest of the day, while additional showers and storms continue to move onshore, shifting the threat for heavy rainfall to southern coast and possibly inland by the afternoon and evening. Ponding of water on roads and minor flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas will be the primary storm impact in this low instability/high moisture environment, with occasional cloud to ground lighting and some gusty winds also possible. Dangerous coastal and marine conditions continue, and beach goers are urged to not enter the life-threatening surf. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Central Florida Atlantic waters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Today-Fri...High pressure wedging down the eastern seaboard today will increase the NE-E wind flow and produce a breezy/gusty day. This onshore flow will support a moistening of the atmos and result in widespread showers and embedded storms. There is support aloft in the form of a weak nearly stationary trough as well as a developing coastal (inverted) low level trough. With MUCAPE near 1000 J/Kg and PWATs 1.8"-2.0", ingredients are coming together to produce a risk of excessive rainfall (with efficient rain rates) for portions of the central FL Atlc coast. Coastal convergence as well as back-building storms forming bands of heavy rain will affect portions of the Space and Treasure coasts. Given the strength of the onshore flow, some of these showers will push well inland and affect Orlando metro. Rainfall amounts of 1-3" will occur with locally 4"+ and the highest amounts should occur near the coast. One or more Flood Advisories look likely over this period. The tightening pressure gradient around the high pressure to the north will produce northeast to east winds 15-25mph with higher gusts esp along the coast. There will not be significant diurnal range in temps esp along the coast due to very mild low temps holding in the mid to upper 70s and max temps only in the low to mid 80s. A little larger diurnal range will occur over the interior. Sat-Wed...Some model guidance show a weak low developing near the NW Bahamas Fri night and track NW across south FL Sat. NHC has started outlooking this area for low prob (10%) for tropical development. If this occurs, even a weak (non tropical) low would enhance low level convergence and heavy rain threat further across east central FL. If more heavy rain is anticipated this weekend, we may need a Flood Watch. By Sunday, the deepest moisture is forecast to lift north and the pressure gradient eases though remaining onshore. Rain chances should gradually decrease next week though remaining at least scattered (50 percent). Would not be surprised if we are able to lower PoPs further by mid week. Temps look close to seasonable in the mid to upper 80s. && .MARINE... Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Tight NE to E pressure gradient will develop over the local Atlc waters today around high pressure wedging down the eastern seaboard. Thus, hazardous to dangerous boating conditions are forecast to continue across the local Atlantic waters over the next several days. Wind speeds 15-25 knots with combined seas (wind wave and swell) of 7-12 feet. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will continue through Sat for all the waters. There should be some relaxation of the pressure gradient Sun-Mon as winds turn E-SE but seas will be slow to subside so an extension of the SCA appears likely to include Sunday, at least for the offshore waters. Meanwhile, moisture increases locally which will promote a high coverage of showers and isolated storms containing heavy rain and cloud to water lightning. Brief waterspouts will also be possible especially where cell mergers occur or spin-ups driven by coastal convergence. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Onshore moving showers persists this afternoon, with VCSH at all terminals starting at 18Z. Showers will begin to decrease across the north later this afternoon, with VCSH ending at DAB and LEE at 19Z, which will continue through the overnight. VCSH will end at 01Z for all the interior sites through the overnight hours, with VCSH persisting along the coast tonight. Breezy northeast to east winds this afternoon at 10-15 KT with gusts 20-30 KT. Winds will begins to decrease to around 10KT across the interior into the evening and overnight, with the coast staying around 10-15 KT with gusts 20-25 KT. NE winds will increase once again by mid morning Friday, with speeds 10-15 KT with gusts 20-25 KT. Have VCSH starting at 15Z on Friday for all sites and persisting through the TAF period. Mainly VFR conditions with brief MVFR conditions in showers. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 82 73 82 / 40 60 50 70 MCO 73 84 73 84 / 30 60 40 70 MLB 75 83 75 83 / 40 70 60 70 VRB 74 83 75 84 / 60 70 70 70 LEE 72 84 72 83 / 10 40 30 60 SFB 73 83 73 83 / 30 50 50 70 ORL 73 84 73 83 / 30 50 40 70 FPR 74 83 74 84 / 70 70 70 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ550-552-555- 570-572-575. && $$ |
| #1246941 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:15 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 208 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 205 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Increasing winds will cause hazardous boating conditions beginning today through the weekend. - Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop each day through at least early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A bit of an unsettled pattern expected the next few days. Strong, gusty northeast to east winds expected today through the beginning of the weekend as the pressure gradient remains tight over the area. This will keep marine hazards elevated as the winds and seas remain elevated. Along with gusty winds, moisture will continue to increase over the next few days as an upper level shortwave lingers over the area and a surface level wave moves east to west over the peninsula into the Gulf this weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected as these features influence the pattern. Next week we shift back into a more typical pattern, as high pressure builds back into the area. This will allow more typical afternoon showers and storms. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 205 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Breezy, northeast to east conditions continue through the afternoon with some passing showers and storms possible. Reduced ceilings and visibilities could accompany any passing shower or storm. Overnight the rain diminishes, however some lower ceilings could still linger. Tomorrow, scattered showers moving east to west are expected, similar to today. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Hazardous marine conditions expected through the weekend as advisory level winds continue to impact the waters. Winds begin to decrease a bit Sunday, however will likely still be around cautionary levels heading into next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 205 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Fire weather concerns remain minimal as RH values remain elevated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 74 88 74 87 / 10 30 10 50 FMY 73 86 73 87 / 20 50 20 50 GIF 72 86 73 85 / 20 40 20 60 SRQ 72 89 73 88 / 10 40 10 40 BKV 69 86 71 85 / 10 30 10 50 SPG 75 86 74 85 / 10 30 10 40 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
| #1246939 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1254 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A strong surface ridge will persist across the southeast states, keeping our easterly winds elevated, especially for our coastal communities. These winds will then decrease Sunday night and Monday as the ridge weakens. Dry conditions will persist through noon Saturday aside from isolated light showers popping up along coastal Alabama. Better rain chances will occur over the weekend into early next week as a series of low-level easterly waves move across the northern Gulf. We are still expecting isolated to scattered showers and storms south of U.S. Highway 84 from Saturday afternoon through noon Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will follow Sunday afternoon through midweek across most of the forecast area with the highest rain chances occurring closer to the coast, and we could see numerous showers and storms on Sunday across our coastal communities. We are still expecting the bulk of the heavy rain to remain out over the Gulf. High temperatures in the lower to middle 80s Friday through Monday will rebound into the middle 80s all areas on Tuesday, and from 85 to 90 degrees midweek. Low temperature tonight through Friday night will be in the lower to middle 60s inland, and the upper 60s to lower 70s along the immediate coast. Lows should then rebound into the middle 60s to lower 70s Saturday night through the remainder of the forecast. Beach Forecast: We continue to see an upward trend in breaker heights reaching the 5 to 6 foot range beginning late tonight. Therefore, we went ahead and issued a High Surf Advisory from 3 AM tonight to 6 PM Sunday. The higher breaker heights, along with the HIGH rip current risk, will result in dangerous swimming and surfing conditions along our beaches through the upcoming weekend. Localized beach erosion is also possible. /22 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Northeasterly to easterly winds of around 10 knots, with occasional gusts up to around 20 knots, will decrease by the evening hours. Winds will restrengthen to around 10-15 knots, with gusts up to 20 knots, by Friday morning. /96 && .MARINE... Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Gulf through the weekend as strong easterly flow develops at the base of a strong surface ridge across the southeast states. Seas will continue to trend higher, and could be as high as 8 to 10 feet well offshore by early Friday morning. Small craft should exercise caution over all bays and sounds beginning tonight due to a moderate easterly flow. Winds will gradually decrease on Monday with seas slowly subsiding through Tuesday. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 64 83 67 84 69 83 69 85 / 0 10 10 20 40 60 30 40 Pensacola 68 83 70 84 71 82 72 84 / 0 10 10 20 40 60 40 40 Destin 69 84 70 84 71 82 72 84 / 0 10 0 20 30 60 30 40 Evergreen 60 84 63 85 67 84 67 84 / 0 0 0 0 10 40 30 40 Waynesboro 60 83 63 84 66 83 67 83 / 0 0 0 0 10 30 20 30 Camden 59 83 63 84 66 82 67 82 / 0 0 0 0 10 30 20 30 Crestview 62 83 66 84 69 82 67 83 / 0 0 0 10 20 50 30 40 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for ALZ265-266. High Surf Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 6 PM CDT Sunday for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206. High Surf Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 6 PM CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655-670- 675. && $$ |
| #1246938 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 201 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Friday) Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Shower chances tick up a bit in the FL Big Bend Friday afternoon with daytime East-Northeast wind gusts around 20 mph. High pres ridging into the region with ENE gradient winds. Cannot rule out a passing shower this afternoon in the Southeast FL Big Bend and Forgotten Coast. On Friday, Atlantic moisture moves into the area as PWAT increases to around 1.5 inches w/subtle shortwave energy aloft. This justifies a slight chance of showers mainly in the FL Big bend. Lows in the mid-60s tonight and highs in the mid-80s on Friday, which is near average. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A more complex pattern develops this weekend with a cutoff low over the Bahamas moving westward and eventually being absorbed into a broader cutoff low in the lower MS Valley by early next week. Shower and slight thunder chances increase Saturday with a focus in the FL Counties, then crescendo Sunday as an inverted trough of low pressure moves through the region. In fact, PWAT on Sunday will likely approach or exceed the 90th percentile (1.9 inches) per ensembles, so heavy downpours will be possible. Meanwhile, NHC is monitoring for a low 10% chance of development along the aforementioned trough/remnant frontal boundary in the Northeast Gulf, so we`ll continue to monitor and update on that. It will feel increasingly humid this weekend into next week. As broad southerly flow sets up next week, a chance of showers and a gusty thunderstorm each day. Highs in the 80s each day with warm overnight lows due to cloud cover will keep temperatures generally above average. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VFR conditions are generally expected through the period. A few hours of MVFR ceilings will be possible in the early morning near KVLD but should improve to VFR by mid to late morning. Breezy northeast to east-northeast winds will continue during the daytime. && .MARINE... Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A prolonged period of Small Craft Advisory conditions through Sunday across the coastal waters with hazardous conditions for small craft with East-Northeast winds around 20 to 25 knots and significant wave heights rapidly increasing just offshore to 5 to 8 feet. More favorable boating conditions are expected by Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 The chance OF scattered showers and a slight chance of thunder will increase on Saturday from the FL Counties into I-75 corridor of GA, then across the entire region on Sunday. As a result, expect gradually moistening Relative Humidity through the weekend. Breezy easterly transport winds continue through Sunday. Mixing heights between 4,000 and 5,000 feet on Friday and Saturday, when combined with the breezy easterly transport winds, may lead to pockets of high afternoon dispersion away from Gulf coast. Despite increased shower chances this weekend, the forecast of minimal rainfall over the next several days maintains fire weather concerns with fuels continuing to dry out. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 The latest US Drought Monitor indicates the area of severe drought (D2) has increased in size, generally along/north of I-10 in FL into portions of Southwest GA. While much of the area is expected to have rainfall by Sunday, unless forecast amounts increase, it would not put much of dent in the current drought conditions. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 67 84 68 85 / 0 10 0 30 Panama City 68 85 69 85 / 0 10 10 40 Dothan 63 82 65 83 / 0 0 0 10 Albany 64 83 66 83 / 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 67 83 67 83 / 0 10 0 30 Cross City 68 86 69 85 / 10 40 10 60 Apalachicola 70 83 71 83 / 10 30 20 60 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT tonight for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Sunday for GMZ730- 751-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1246937 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 151 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Dangerous Beach & Marine Impacts through the Weekend. High Rip Current Risk, High Surf & Small Craft Advisory. Wind Gusts at the Coast of 30 to 40 mph Today through Saturday - Extended Minor to Moderate Tidal Flooding through the Weekend. Coastal Flood Advisory for St. Johns River Basin, Northeast FL & Southeast GA - Rain Chances Increase Today through Weekend. Daily Rounds of Heavy Rain & Isolated Embedded Thunderstorms. Localized Flood Risk at Coast & Low-lying Locations && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 1233 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Local Nor`easter conditions will continue to ramp up through tonight as the coastal trough over the Atlantic waters sharpens up and lifts northward. This will re-focus the shower and embedded storm activity that is currently just across Flagler county and expand it across the entire NE FL/SE GA coastline and I-95 corridor through tonight with windy conditions at the beachfront locations along with the risk of heavy rainfall at times. Rainfall amounts not excessive enough for a Flood Watch at this time, but may need to be posted sometime on Friday or the weekend as better guidance on where the convergent rain bands will set up. Sustained NE winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph will continue for the Atlantic Coastal counties through tonight, just below Wind Advisory criteria, while lesser breezy type NE winds of 15-20G25 mph winds over inland areas this afternoon will fade to 10-15G20 mph over inland areas through tonight. Overnight lows will remain fairly close to normal values in the middle 60s inland SE GA, upper 60s inland NE FL and lower/middle 70s for Atlantic Coastal areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 1233 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Increasing chances for showers and storms going into the weekend as moist onshore flow from out of the Atlantic builds south of high pressure to the north and burgeoning low pressure to the south, resulting in conditions somewhat similar to a nor`easter pattern with gusty northeasterly-easterly winds and a potential for excessive rainfall capable of producing local flooding conditions as PWAT values rise to be in excess of 2.2 inches. Wind speeds during this period are anticipated to rise to be about 15-25 mph with gusts of 35 mph. High temperatures for the end of the week and into the weekend will rise into the lower to mid 80s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the upper 60s and lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1233 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Showers and storms will become more widespread through the weekend and into the beginning of next week with area-wide convection building as the developing low pressure system moves across the Florida peninsula and starts moving towards the northwest, resulting in a more southerly prevailing flow over the forecast area leading to a weaker onshore surface winds as the week progresses with a corresponding reduction in convective developments as drier air starts to advect into the region by Wednesday. Temperatures will experience a slight warming trend through the coming week with daytime high temperatures rising to be near and slightly above the seasonal average by midweek. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 151 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Local Nor`easter conditions already spreading northward to the remainder of the TAF sites with MVFR CIGS impacting all TAF sites except for GNV this afternoon. NE winds have increased to 15-20 knots this afternoon with gusts to 25-30 knots that will continue at the coastal TAF sites of SSI/SGJ through tonight, while weakening NE winds at the inland TAF sites. More widespread light rainfall spreading inland and will continue to post 6SM -SHRA in most TAF sites through the period, except for the better chances for MVFR VSBYS at SGJ/SSI for the 00-12Z time frame tonight. Will continue to monitor rain bands for more short-fuse TEMPO groups for lower VSBYS into the 1-3SM range, most likely at the coastal TAF sites of SSI/CRG/SGJ. High confidence in MVFR CIG forecast, just lower confidence in timing of MVFR or IFR vsbys in any heavy rain bands at TAF locations. For now the TSRA chances remain too low for any inclusion, but may be required at coastal TAF sites sometime tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1233 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Small Craft Advisory conditions with strong northeasterly winds and elevated seas will persist across the coastal waters through the upcoming weekend and into next week, along with occasional wind gusts to Gale Force. Coastal troughing will sharpen over our local waters late this week, generating increasing chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms. Winds will shift to easterly by Friday and the weekend as high pressure shifts offshore of the Carolinas. Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents and high surf advisory conditions, along with moderate to severe beach erosion will continue at Atlantic beachfront locations through late this week and through the upcoming weekend. Surf/breakers into the 7-10 ft range will continue late this week through the upcoming weekend. Moderate to severe beach erosion is expected at Atlantic beachfront locations during times of high tide through the upcoming weekend as high surf advisories remain in place. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1233 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Minor to locally Moderate tidal flooding will continue along the St. Johns River from downtown JAX southward and along the NE FL Atlantic inter-coastal areas of St. Johns/Flagler counties early this afternoon, then will expand to the rest of the St. Johns River and Atlantic Coastal areas from JAX northward through Brunswick with the next high tide cycle this afternoon and evening and have expanded the current Coastal Flood Advisory as peak water levels remain generally in the 1.5 to 2.0 ft above MHHW range. The continued NE surge of winds through the upcoming weekend will continue to trap more water in the St. Johns River Basin and combine with higher astronomical tides due to the full Moon by the Friday afternoon and evening high tide cycle and expect water levels to peak in the 2 to 2.5 ft range above MHHW in the St Johns River Basin, and along the ICWW of the NE FL coast and have pushed the Coastal Flood Watch to start in these locations for more widespread Moderate coastal/tidal flooding, which will continue through the entire weekend, while mainly Minor Coastal Flooding will continue from Nassau County northward along the SE GA coastline during times of high tide. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 64 82 65 82 / 20 0 0 20 SSI 70 80 71 82 / 60 30 20 40 JAX 70 83 70 83 / 60 40 20 60 SGJ 72 83 72 82 / 70 50 40 60 GNV 68 85 69 84 / 30 30 20 50 OCF 69 83 71 83 / 20 30 10 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ124-125-138-233- 333. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ124. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for FLZ125-225. Coastal Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening for FLZ125-132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for FLZ132-137-138- 233-325-333-633. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for GAZ154-166. High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1246936 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 145 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather continues today with near-seasonable temperatures as high pressure to our north brings decreasing northeast winds. Warming trend then begins on Friday, heralding a potential multi-day stretch of above normal high temperatures in the lower 80s for the weekend into early next week. Dry weather is expected to prevail through early next week, with our next chance for rainfall not anticipated until the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Key Messages: * Decreasing northeast breezes for eastern and southeast coastal New England, but with a mix of sun and clouds and highs lower 60s. * Mostly clear with light winds for interior Southern New England, with highs in the mid/upper 60s. Details: Governing weather pattern is little changed early this morning, with a 1032 mb high pressure area extending a surface ridge axis through New England into the Carolina Piedmont. This is associated with a cool and dry airmass, with precipitable water values per regional 00z RAOB analyses down to around 0.35". For most of interior Southern New England, as you head outside this morning it will certainly feel every bit like an typical early- autumn morning with temps down into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Stronger NE winds continue across eastern and southeast MA, adjacent portions of RI and particularly across the Cape and Islands where NE winds have been gusting to around 25-30 mph. This has led to temps running well into the 50s. While skies were clear in most locations, infrared satellite reveals an increasing field of cold air stratocumulus over the Gulf of Maine with the cooler air over the milder waters; this cloudiness was poised to advect southwestward into southeastern New England this morning. Despite the cooler and in some isolated locations frosty start in the interior, shaping up to be a really nice Thursday as plenty of sun should allow for temps to recover pretty well today. We`ll be able to mix down even drier air this afternoon and dewpoints around the low 30s seem achiveable in interior Southern New England, which will dry out soils as RHs drop to around 30-40 percent. While still breezy across southeast MA and the Cape and Islands this morning the trend will be for decreasing northeast winds, and we`ll see more of a mix of sun and stratocumulus clouds across RI, the South Coast and the Cape and Islands. Highs mainly in the 60s, with cooler lower-60s readings over the eastern coast of MA and into the mid to upper 60s for the CT Valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... 245 AM Update: Key Messages: * Clear and dry with light winds tonight, lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. * Warming trend starts Fri, with full sun and highs in the lower to mid 70s, but cooler upper 60s along the immediate South Coast and Cape and Islands. Modest southwest breezes. Details: Tonight: High pressure becomes centered south of Southern New England tonight, which will generate optimal radiational cooling with light winds and anticipated strong hourly temperature falls after sundown. High clouds are expected to stream in early in the evening, which will herald the arrival of much-warmer air over the upper Midwest/Gt Lakes region that moves in for late in the week/this weekend. Lows eventually bottom out to the upper 30s to mid 40s given modest warm advection. Friday: High pressure remains anchored south of Southern New England for Fri, which will bring an increased southerly flow but not particularly breezy with winds around 10 mph. Although will see some high clouds continue to stream in, looking at a much warmer Fri compared to the last few days as 925 mb temps warm to around +10- 12C. The southern coast will be a little cooler with highs in the upper 60s given the SW winds off the water, but highs elsewhere should reach into the lower to mid 70s when factoring in SW downsloping and the warm feedback from the dry soil conditions resulting in daytime temps overachieving by a few degrees of late. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Messages: * Above normal temperatures and dry weather this weekend into early next week. Possible multi-day stretch of low to mid 80s temps away from the coasts. Fire weather concerns possible too. * Next chance for rain around Wed or Wed night. Details: An anomalously strong mid to upper level ridge for early October will be building into Southern New England this weekend and into early next week. This will bring a period of above to well above normal temperatures and continued dry weather conditions. In fact we could be looking at a multi-day stretch of highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Although ensemble probabilistic temperature datasets show low (30% or less) probs of highs in the mid 80s this weekend, think values this high are a conceivable outcome given the continued warm advection and the dry soils providing a warm-feedback on temps. Bias- corrected temperature datasets probably will perform pretty well for this timeframe. While winds are light (seabreezes near the coasts), RHs are likely to be on the lower side and that could lead to elevated fire weather concerns on most days this weekend into early next week. Southwest winds are noticeably stronger on Tue, so that could be one day where fire weather concerns appear greatest. As we`ve been mentioning, this is a very dry pattern we`re stuck in. Our next chance for rain arrives with a cold front around Wed or Wed night, with latest ensembles slowing this front`s arrival again by another 12 hours or so. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update: Today: High confidence. Few lingering low-end VFR/MVFR stratocumulus clouds over southeast airports should lift/scatter out by 21z. NE winds continue to decrease this afternoon, with light E/SE winds towards late this afternoon. Tonight and Friday: High confidence. VFR. Light winds tonight, then becoming southerly 5-10 kt on Fri. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. E winds 5-10 kt slowly turn clockwise to ESE thru the evening. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday Night through Tuesday/... Friday Night through Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Gale warnings have been downshifted to SCAs for nearshore and the ocean waters into Thurs or Thurs evening (outer waters). NE winds over the southeast waters remain around 25-30 kt this morning, but will becoming increasingly sub-SCA as we move into the afternoon. It will take longer for seas to subside below SCA criteria but expect that SCAs can be dropped by overnight tonight. Winds and seas are sub-SCA for Friday, with SW winds around 10-15 kt (locally around 20 kt over northeast waters) and seas 3-4 ft. Outlook /Friday Night through Tuesday/... Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Saturday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ231>235-237-251. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ250-254>256. && $$ |
| #1246933 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1241 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Dry conditions continue today, please continue to use caution when working with open flame or equipment that can cause sparks and start a fire. - Rain chances rise on Friday into the weekend when moisture deepens enough to allow for some isolated seabreeze showers/storms along the coast. - Small craft will likely need to exercise caution Friday into the weekend due to increased winds and seas. Beachgoers should also be aware that there will likely be an increased risk of rip currents this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 The stretch of dry weather continued today with mostly clear skies and temperatures rising into the upper 80s to low 90s. There will be a gradual change in the weather starting tomorrow as a long easterly fetch develops over the northern Gulf helping to bring some moisture back into SE Texas. A combination of the increased moisture and a broad upper-level low over the Mississippi RV will bring a slight increase in the chance of showers and storms on Friday and into the weekend. Only areas south of I-10 will have a chance of the shower and thunderstorm activity as it will mostly be driven by the afternoon seabreeze. Cannot out rule an isolated shower north of I-10, but activity will be minimal. For Monday through at least midweek, there will be slightly better chances for isolated afternoon activity north of I-10, but still only a slight chance. While there will be higher moisture across the area that daytime heating may be able to tap into to develop some isolated activity, there will be a building upper level ridge of high pressure developing over the region. This high pressure will increase subsidence over the area, thus limiting precipitation chances. Thus, limiting PoPs next week to 15-25 percent during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will continue to run slightly above normal with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Temperatures may increase another degree or two by Wednesday of next week as that high pressure builds over the region. Fowler && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 With a couple exceptions (one quite notable), this is a VFR forecast with main challenge being winds this morning being Light/VRB landbreeze, with winds gradually becoming easterly 5-10 kts for the afternoon - southeasterly right on the coast with the seabreeze, then light/VRB again tonight. Foggy spots SGR and *especially* LBX doing their thing right now, with LBX all the way down to 1/4SM. Expecting things to stay roughly as is or degrade slightly through sunrise, then improve rapidly as the sun rises and temps increase. Do not have a return of BR/FG in their TAFs tonight for now due to uncertainty, but is certainly on the table. && .MARINE... Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Light winds and low seas continue through tonight, but increasing easterly winds are expected to develop Friday through the weekend. The easterly winds are expected to rise to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kts as early late Friday morning/early afternoon with these wind speeds continuing through Sunday morning. These higher winds will lead to increasing wave heights as well with seas climbing to around 4-6ft by Friday evening and persist through Sunday. Isolated higher seas of 7-8ft cannot be ruled out on Saturday in the offshore waters beyond 20nm. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop in the coastal waters on Friday with chances continuing through at least the start of next week. The persistent moderate onshore flow will likely lead to an increase in strong rip currents along area beaches this weekend, and lead to higher than normal high tides (around 3-3.5ft above MLLW during times of high tide). Fowler && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Active burn bans in SE Texas: Houston (New), Madison, Colorado, and Wharton counties. Dry conditions continue today with afternoon RH values dropping to 29-40% for inland areas. Observed 10 hour fuel moisture across SE Texas shows many areas below the 25th and 10th percentiles, with isolated spots in our west/northwestern counties below the 3rd percentile. These locations will be most prone to wildfires, though once again low wind speeds and gusts should aid in any firefighting/containment efforts. Still, much of SE Texas remains vulnerable to wildfires due to the dry conditions today. Those preforming land clearing should exercise caution, ensuring any fires are contained and have contingency plans should they grow out of control. Individuals should be mindful of equipment that could create unintended sparks, (i.e. loose chains) especially in areas with flammable surfaces. Easterly flow and rising moisture on Friday will lead to improved rain chances over the weekend. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 69 90 65 90 / 0 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 72 91 71 91 / 0 10 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 78 86 77 85 / 10 30 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1246932 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 118 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong high pressure will extend across the region into the weekend, with rain chances increasing on Sunday into early next week. A cold front may approach the region in the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Feeling quite fall-like out there, with temperatures in the lower to upper 70s, dewpoints in the 50s inland to 60s along the coast, and a gusty north-northeast wind. This is occurring as a ~1030mb high pressure wedge remains centered on the northeast coast, with an area of low pressure in the far southwest portion of the Gulf, leading to a high surface pressure gradient across the region. This will lead to a dry forecast for most, though some weak isentropic lift may result in some very scattered showers in our far southerneastern Georgia counties along the coast. There is a roughly 20% chance for these starting early this evening, with chances expanding up the rest of the Georgia coast into the early overnight hours. Any amounts are expected to remain light at under a quarter of an inch. Overnight temperatures drop towards the upper 50s inland to mid 60s along the coast, with breezy winds continuing. Aloft, h500 heights remain fairly consistent across our area, though weak troughing is expected to occur across the Gulf Stream. NHC highlights this area within the trough between Florida and the Bahamas with a 10% of formation over the next 48 hours. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Friday and Saturday: The pseudo Rex configuration of the upper air pattern across the eastern CONUS will gradually translate to the upper level high settling offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks with the upper low over the northwest Gulf/Louisiana coast through the weekend. The strong inland wedge that has been in place for the past several days will gradually weaken as the confluent flow over the Northeast U.S. diminishes and unlocks the parent high over New England. This will allow the parent high to sink to the south/southeast, ending up offshore of the Virginia Tidewater by Sunday. Until this occurs, a stiff northeast low-level flow will persist with subtle coastal trough lurking just offshore. Models are still likely overdeveloping shower activity over the Atlantic associated with an extensive marine-based stratocumulus field left in the wake of Imelda; a known bias in the various model suites, especially in the cool/cold season. At least a downward recent has been noted. Still expect some degree of shower activity to impact the beaches, but most of any activity that forms will be redirected into northeast Florida and possibly far southern coastal Georgia. Seasonable temperatures will continue with highs peaking in the upper 70s/lower 80s both afternoons with lows Saturday morning ranging from the mid 60s well inland to the lower-mid 70s at the beaches. A pinched gradient associated with the inland wedge will keep breezy conditions in place at the beaches both days. Sunday: An increasingly moist flow will develop across the area by Sunday as the region becomes pinned between the upper high off of Cape Hatteras and the upper low over the far northwest Gulf. Guidance is pretty similar in showing a weak impulse, possibly even a subtle surface low, developing near a stalled front over the Florida peninsula in response to band of vorticity passing through aloft. As this system moves into the northeast Gulf, the northern fringe of what looks to be a fairly large rain shield will begin to spread into Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia. There is a lot of uncertainty here as much will depend on how strong any disturbance to the south becomes with the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members supporting a much weaker system compared to their operational counterparts. Even if the system ends up much weaker, the same band of vorticity moving across the Florida peninsula will propagate into the Southeast U.S. and interact with the lingering coastal trough offshore to also aid in rain production. Bottom line, rain chances will be on the increase through Sunday, but the associated QPF is highly uncertain. PWATs are forecast to increase to 2-2.25", so there will be a risk for conditional risk for locally heavy rainfall possibly some minor flooding, mainly in low- lying and poor drainage areas. Highs will warm in the upper 70s/lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The risk for rainfall will persist into the middle of next week as moist conditions linger ahead of an approaching cold front. Confidence how much convection will occur in the warm sector is a bit uncertain with upper pattern favoring a pretty steady stream of hard-to-time impulses passing through in the southerly flow aloft. NBM pops were generally favored, showing chance to likely pops Monday with slight chance to chance pops Tuesday into Wednesday. Highs each day will warm into the lower-mid 80s with overnight lows in the mid-upper 60s inland to the 70s at the coast. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 18Z TAFs: A pinched surface pressure gradient is resulting in breezy northeasterly winds, gusting into the teens to lower 20s. There is a low chance (~20%) for an isolated showers or storm to form this evening/overnight along the southeastern Georgia coast, but did not include mention at any of the TAF sites. While VFR conditions are expected to prevail into the morning hours, some guidance is hinting at an MVFR cloud deck forming with those aforementioned showers over the ocean and advecting those onto land. Not sold on that solution, so have kept VFR conditions going. Extended Aviation Forecast: There are no high confidence concerns. The risk for restrictions from showers/tstms will increase this weekend into early next week for all terminals. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: A pinched surface pressure gradient is resulting in breezy northeasterly winds, as of 1 PM sustained in the mid to upper 20s with gusts in the upper 20s to lower 30s. For the rest of the afternoon and into the evening hours, expecting similar if not a touch stronger winds for the rest of the day and into the overnight hours. Did consider upgrading to a Gale warning, but looking at the various models it`s not looking like we would reach the sustained criteria, and the gust criteria would be rather inconsistent and not reaching the duration criteria. The last swells from Imelda will remain across the marine zones through the near term, peaking today/tonight between 6 to 11 ft. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all marine zones. Friday through Tuesday: Pinched gradient conditions associated with the inland wedge will keep northeast winds 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in place through the weekend. The gradient will begin to relax Monday into Tuesday as a warm front shifts north and winds become more east to southeast. The combination of both winds and seas will keep solid Small Craft Advisory conditions in place through Tuesday for most legs. Peak seas will average 5-8 ft nearshore waters and 8- 11 ft over the Georgia offshore waters through the weekend, then slowly subside. Rip Currents/High Surf: A high risk rip currents will continue into Saturday. NWPS breaking wave guidance still shows breakers at 4-6 ft with sets up to 7 ft holding through Saturday morning. The High Surf Advisory remains in place. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As astronomical tides increase this week, the risk for minor coastal flooding will increase for Charleston and Coastal Colleton Counties during the afternoon high tide cycle. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Charleston and Coastal Colleton Counties. Heading into this weekend and early next week, astronomical tides will increase due to the upcoming Full Moon (Oct 7) and Perigee (Oct 8). This in combination with the anticipation of continued northeasterly flow will cause the possibility of coastal flooding to become more likely along the entire coastline, including both Downtown Charleston and Fort Pulaski. Saltwater inundation could then occur during both the morning and evening high tide cycles during this time. Although there is considerable uncertainty this far out, persistent favorable winds have the potential to produce up to major coastal flooding. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday evening for GAZ117-119- 139-141. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for GAZ117-119-139- 141. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday evening for SCZ048>051. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for SCZ048>051. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ049- 050. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ330. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ350-352-354. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1246931 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1231 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1230 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Increasing risk of rip currents return this weekend along the Lower Texas beaches. - Daily low to medium (20-50%) rain chances return Friday through mid week next week, with the highest chances along the immediate coast and over the Gulf waters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Mid level ridging aloft will maintain generally rain-free conditions for this afternoon and evening, but is expected to shift westward as a broad mid level low centered over the Gulf Coast and Southeast US shifts slightly toward the southwest. In combination with increasing moisture content and diurnal instability, expect low (20% or less) precipitation chances to return on Friday and low to medium (20-40%) precipitation chances over the weekend. While most activity is expected to develop along the sea breeze during peak daytime heating, the influence of the mid level low and presence of elevated precipitable water values may allow for isolated showers or thunderstorms to develop overnight as well, mainly over the Gulf waters and immediate coast. Any activity that develops will be capable of locally heavy rainfall. Daily low precipitation chances, mainly associated with the sea breeze, continue into mid week next week. Otherwise, expect near to slightly above temperatures for early October to persist across Deep South Texas. For the Lower Texas beaches, a low risk of rip currents will continue through Friday evening. However, it is likely well see an increased risk of rip currents this weekend, so use caution if youre planning to go to the beach. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VFR will prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast period. Low precipitation chances (around 20%) return just beyond the 18Z TAF timeframe at HRL and BRO. && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail with low to moderate seas and light to moderate winds. Wave heights will increase to 3-5 feet over the Gulf waters due to increasing easterly swell. Precipitation chances return heading into the weekend and continue through early next week. Locally enhanced winds and seas are expected within any showers or thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 74 91 75 90 / 0 20 20 40 HARLINGEN 69 92 71 90 / 0 20 10 40 MCALLEN 72 96 74 94 / 0 20 10 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 69 96 70 95 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 86 79 85 / 0 20 30 40 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 88 74 87 / 0 20 20 40 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1246930 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 117 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 106 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Latest sfc and model analyses show the lingering leftovers of a frontal boundary stretching across the FL east coast, while high pressure keeps establishing over the SE CONUS. Meanwhile, ensembles show a mid/upper lvl trough migrating eastward across the area through tonight, along with continuing moisture advection from the Atlantic by the prevailing sfc ENE flow. The overall synoptic scenario will translate into increasing favorable conditions for showers and thunderstorms to begin developing this afternoon. A wetter pattern will then establish through the next several days with showers and thunderstorms coverage becoming widespread at times, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. Latest radar data shows shower and storm activity still remaining over the Atlantic waters, but additional development and/or coastal storms pushing inland is expected for the rest of today. POPs/Wx grids carry max values in the 70-75 percent range today and tomorrow, with particularly high chances along coastal locations. The Weather Prediction Center is keeping much of SoFlo`s Atlantic coastline under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall through this evening as the moist easterly flow collides with the aforementioned frontal boundary. PWATs are expected to remain over 2 inches, while MUCAPE in the 500-1000 j/kg range will also contribute to increase the potential for locally high rain rates. The increased cloud cover and shower activity should help in keeping max temps in the upper 80s to low 90s, while overnight lows should stay in the low to mid 70s across the whole area. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 An active pattern begins to set up for South Florida today as breezy ENE winds near the surface continue to sustain moisture advection over the region, and an upper level trough is forecast to slide eastward across the Florida peninsula. The combination of these factors will help support scattered showers and thunderstorms developing throughout the day today, generally moving south- southwest. Some of these storms could bring heavy rain and gusty winds, and localized street flooding could be possible with any heavy downpours. Portions of the Palm Beach and Broward county metro areas will be under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding today. The trough will eventually open up as it moves over the Atlantic late tonight, but conditions are forecast to remain unsettled as guidance shows a mid-level low potentially developing over the Bahamas. This would help enhance rainfall chances and coverage overnight and into Friday, especially for areas along the immediate coast, and over the local Atlantic waters. The 00Z HREF 24-hour precip probabilities capture this scenario pretty well, with a handful of spots along the East Coast showing 40-50% chance of exceeding 2" of rain, and a few even showing 30-40% of exceeding 4 inches over the same time period. To that effect, WPC has placed southeast FL under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding. Slightly lower temperatures forecast through the short term period given greater cloud coverage and convective activity. Highs will top out in the upper 80s and low 90s, while overnight lows will stay in the low to mid 70s across the whole area. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 By Saturday, the aforementioned mid-level low is forecast to begin lifting northward, but it`s influence will still be felt across South Florida, where conditions will remain wet and unsettled through the weekend. Rounds of scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon, with POPs in the 50-70% range. Best chances are forecast to be constrained north of Alligator Alley. Surface high will being to build across the area early next week, signaling a return to the more routine summertime regime of easterly winds and afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the interior and southwest. High temperatures through the extended period will generally reach the low 90s, with overnight lows in the low-mid 70s across the interior and up to the upper 70s along the coasts. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 116 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Periods of MVFR/IFR cigs/vis are possible through this evening as showers and thunderstorms develop over the Atlantic metro areas, and around Naples. Some storms may produce brief gusty winds in the 20-40kt range at times. In general, breezy easterly- northeasterly winds will continue through much of the TAF period with VFR returning after 02-03Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A moderate northeasterly breeze is expected across the local waters for the rest of the week. Hazardous seas are expected to continue for the Atlantic waters over the next few days as ongoing swell continues behind Hurricane Imelda. Seas will range from 6-9 feet today and are expected to rise further for Friday and this weekend. Additionally, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic waters and the northern Gulf waters through late Friday night. && .BEACHES... Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Fresh onshore flow and elevated swell behind Hurricane Imelda will result in a high risk of rip currents and high surf heights (for Palm Beach county beaches) through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 75 85 75 86 / 60 70 60 70 West Kendall 75 85 74 87 / 50 70 50 70 Opa-Locka 75 85 75 87 / 60 70 60 70 Homestead 75 85 75 86 / 50 70 60 70 Fort Lauderdale 75 84 75 85 / 70 70 60 70 N Ft Lauderdale 75 84 75 86 / 70 70 60 70 Pembroke Pines 75 87 76 88 / 60 70 60 70 West Palm Beach 75 84 75 85 / 70 70 60 70 Boca Raton 74 85 75 87 / 70 70 60 70 Naples 74 88 74 87 / 40 70 40 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ168-172-173. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ168. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-670. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ651-671. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Saturday for GMZ656-676. && $$ |
| #1246927 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1259 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in from mid to late week with cooler and drier weather returning. A warm-up is expected heading into the weekend, with dry conditions continuing through next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 950 AM EDT Thursday... Key Message: - Below average temperatures and pleasant conditions today. - Gusty winds expected near the coast today, followed by a decrease in winds overnight. Hurricane Imelda continues to moves farther away from the U.S. (now east of Bermuda) this morning, and the gradient between the expansive high centered across eastern Canada has started to relax. Wind gusts along the coast still range from 20 to 25 mph. Mostly sunny this morning with temperatures in the lower 60s to near 70F, after morning lows that ranged from the mid 40s to around 50F inland, to the lower/mid 60s at the coast. The high will slide southeastwards today and move across the Northeast. Imelda will track further into the North Atlantic, resulting in a continued decrease in winds. Gusts of 20 to 25 mph will linger along the coast through the early evening, but a sharp decrease in winds is expected by tonight. As we saw yesterday, another scattered low-level cloud deck will likely develop across the forecast area. With the cooler, drier airmass expected to remain in place today, no rain is in the forecast and temperatures are expected to remain slightly below normal with highs reach the upper 60s to lower 70s. Skies will start to clear this evening, so another round of radiational cooling is likely in inland areas tonight. Lows are forecast to drop into the mid-upper 40s inland, while areas near the coast will see temperatures in the mid 50s to around 60F. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Warming temperatures expected this weekend, with rain-free conditions continuing. Cooler temperatures will continue through Friday as the high continues to pump in a modified continental airmass across the region. Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s on Friday. The high to our north will slowly slide southwards Friday and reach the Mid- Atlantic coast by the afternoon. Light winds are expected at this time as the gradient will have weakened considerably with the high overhead. High pressure will remain dominant through the weekend, but temperatures will start to moderate on Saturday as an amplified mid-upper level ridge slides over the East Coast. Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s on Saturday, increasing further into the upper 70s on Sunday. Overnight temperatures Saturday will drop to 50- 55F inland and 55-60F along the coast. By Sunday, overnight temperatures will have moderate into the mid to upper 50s inland to lower to mid 60s near the coast. Although the air mass will become modified, dry conditions are anticipated as high pressure remains in place across the region. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Continued warmer temperatures to start the week, with a chance for rain coming late Tuesday as a possible front moves through the area. The synoptic pattern on Monday will remain the similar to the weekend with ridging aloft and high pressure dominating at the surface, but an upper-level trough will be approaching the region from the Great Lakes area. This will shove the high off the Mid- Atlantic coast, which will result in winds shifting to a more southerly direction. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be above normal for this time of year, likely reaching near 80F into the lower 80s. The next best shot at rain will be late Tuesday through Wednesday as a surface front associated with the aforementioned upper trough possibly moves across the region, otherwise, dry conditions will prevail. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 100 PM EDT Thursday... 1034mb high pressure is centered over New England this aftn. VFR with SCT-BKN SC with bases of 3.5-4.5kft. The wind is NE 8-12kt, with gusts to ~20kt at ORF and ECG. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tonight and into Friday as high pressure slowly builds in from the N. Clouds diminish tonight, with SCT CU developing late Friday morning into the aftn. The wind becomes very light away from the coast tonight, but remains NE 5-10kt at ORF and ECG. The wind will generally be E to NE 5-10kt Friday at most sites, and 8-12kt at ORF and ECG. Primarily VFR conditions are anticipated through Friday night through Tuesday as high pressure remains over the region, with the only exception being any early morning shallow ground fog. && .MARINE... As of 250 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - SCAs in effect for all coastal waters due to elevated NE winds and seas of 5-10ft. - SCAs for the lower Ches Bay, lower James River, and the Currituck Sound look to come down late today into tonight. - Gradually improving conditions through the early weekend, then pleasant conditions expected into early next week. Latest weather analysis reveals 1032+mb sfc high pressure building south of QC/New England into the Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas early this morning. Tropical Cyclone Imelda was visible on early morning IR/WV satellite near Bermuda, and will move NE away from the island through today. Locally E-NE winds remain elevated, but have diminished a bit over the past few hours, as the gradient slowly slackens between the departing Imelda and high pressure building over the waters. Seas remain elevated in the 8-12 ft range, comprised of mainly E 10-12 second swell. Waves are 1-2 ft on the upper bay, rivers and sound, with 2-6 ft in the lower bay, highest at the mouth of the bay. Small Craft Advisories have been discontinued north of New Point Comfort, but continue for the lower Ches Bay, Atlantic coastal waters, Currituck Sound, and the lower James River. The coastal waters will remain in SCA into the upcoming weekend, mainly for seas. The Currituck Sound, lower James River and adjacent bay zone should drop below SCA thresholds by late afternoon/early evening. Remaining breezy this morning, with winds gradually diminishing through the day, as the pressure gradient slowly slackens with high pressure building into the region. NE winds 10-15 kt north, 15-20 kt southern waters, with gusts to 25-30 kt this morning slowly diminishing this afternoon. That trend continues tonight and Friday, as high pressure builds overhead. Winds should be down to 10-15kt tonight, then 5-10kt by Friday evening. Seas will be held up mainly due to the lingering swell from the offshore tropical systems and onshore flow. Expecting seas still in the 7-10ft range over the Atlantic coast tonight into Friday, subsiding to 5-8ft by Friday morning. SCA should finally come down Saturday afternoon and evening, from south to north. More benign boating conditions expected by late in the weekend into early next week with high pressure remains in place just offshore. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 500 AM EDT Thursday... Tidal anomalies have risen to 2-2.25 feet above astronomical tides this morning, with widespread minor flooding. Have added a Coastal Flood Warning for the Tidal Potomac River, as tidal anomalies continue to slowly climb this morning. Even as winds diminish, water levels are expected to be slightly lower due to the astronomically lower tide cycle this morning, but in light of a strong flood tide this morning that will keep anomalies remaining steady, expect at least another 1-2 rounds of minor coastal flooding impacts along the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore, the remaining tidal rivers of eastern VA, and southside Hampton Roads. Advisories have been extended until Thursday night for most of these areas except Accomack/Northampton Counties, which will see mainly nuisance/sub-minor threshold type flooding. Mainly nuisance flooding is also expected on the Atlantic coast with subsequent high tides, so not anticipating the need for additional advisories here (although further statements are possible). Will need to monitor the tidal Potomac. Given the high anomalies, could potentially need another round of Coastal Flood Warnings for the evening tide cycle. At the very least, Advisory level water levels are anticipated through the Fri morning tide cycle. High Surf Advisories slowly drop off later today and tonight, as seas slowly subside, but high rip risk persists into the upcoming weekend. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for MDZ021>023. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for VAZ075>078- 522. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ082- 084>086-089-090-093-523. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ083- 518-520. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095>098-524-525. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632- 638. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658. && $$ |
| #1246926 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:42 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service San Juan PR 1225 PM AST Thu Oct 2 2025 .BEACH FORECAST UPDATE...Coastal Hazards where updated/issued due to the approach of a long period northerly swell from past Humberto and Imelda over the Atlantic, that will bring hazardous beach conditions through this weekend and at least early next week. A high risk of rip currents will be in effect from 2 PM AST through at least late Monday night for the north facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra and the northern USVI. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for these same areas from 6 AM tomorrow, Friday, through, at least 6 AM Monday, due to breaking waves above 10 feet. The high risk of rip currents is also forecast to spread to sectors of western PR, Vieques and St. Croix during the weekend. Citizens and visitors are encouraged to continue monitoring the beach forecast and heed the advice of the flag warning system. If you become caught in a rip current, yell for help. Remain calm, do not exhaust yourself and stay afloat while waiting for help. If you have to swim out of a rip current, swim parallel to shore and back toward the beach when possible. Do not attempt to swim directly against a rip current as you will tire quickly. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 452 AM AST Thu Oct 2 2025/ KEY MESSAGES... * Warmer conditions will continue today, particularly across the urban and coastal areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 10 AM through 5 PM AST. Stay hydrated and avoid prolonged sun exposure. * Showers and thunderstorms along interior and northern portions of Puerto Rico will increase flooding and lightning risk this afternoon. * Once again, occasional passing showers are expected across the U.S. Virgin Islands throughout the day. * A long-period swell will arriving late tonight will deteriorate marine and coastal conditions through early next week. Small Craft Advisories are in effect from midnight tonight for the Atlantic offshore waters and from noon Friday for the Atlantic coastal waters and the Mona Passage. SHORT TERM... Today through Saturday... Calm weather conditions prevailed overnight with little to no rain for the US Virgin Islands and windward locations in PR. Winds were calm to light and variable, influenced by a land breeze. In general, skies were mostly clear with some clouds moving through the Virgin Islands. Nighttime cooling allowed the low temperatures to drop from the mid- to upper 70s in coastal areas to the mid- to upper 60s across the mountains. A col area near the region will continue to promote light southeasterly winds today and tomorrow. Moisture content is expected to remain near or below normal through Friday. However, the available moisture, combined with above-normal expected maximum temperatures, will result in warm to hot heat indices during the peak of daily heating this afternoon. Thus, a Heat Advisory is once again in effect for coastal and urban locations in the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Excessive heating, enhanced by local effects and variations in sea breezes, will result in strong thunderstorms across the interior and northern regions of PR. This activity is expected to result in cloud-to-ground lightning, heavy rain, and strong winds. Due to weak steering winds, expect some thunderstorms to remain almost stationary, leading to a heightened risk of flooding in poorly drained areas. Be prepared. These storms will likely clear by evening, resulting in calm weather. A similar weather pattern is expected to repeat on Friday. A long-period north-northwesterly swell will impact the Atlantic coastline, producing dangerous breaking waves and life-threatening rip currents starting late Thursday night or early Friday morning. It`s essential to acknowledge the significant threat this poses to beachgoers who go to the north-facing beaches in Puerto Rico and the northern US Virgin Islands. Avoid becoming just another statistic. For Saturday, a weak tropical wave moving across the Caribbean Sea and a frontal boundary lingering north of the islands over the Atlantic Ocean will increase the moisture content somewhat, as well as the potential for more frequent passing showers followed by isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon. LONG TERM... Sunday through Thursday... No major changes were introduced to the long-term forecast. A transition to an unstable and wetter pattern is still anticipated by the beginning of the workweek, with gradual improvement by Wednesday. Global models continue to suggest the approach of an upper-level trough into the CWA by Sunday night. From the deterministic guidance of the GFS and ECMWF, the tendency towards wetter conditions is increasing, as Precipitable Water (PWAT) values may range between 2.0 and 2.2 inches, above the climatological normal. The latest model solutions also suggest a rise in relative humidity content in the low and mid levels as well (> 60 %, up to 80 - 90%) during Monday and Tuesday. In terms of instability, the presence of this upper feature should bring colder than normal 500 mb temperatures (down to -8 degrees Celsius), favorable for the development of strong thunderstorms. The latest Galvez-Davison Index (GDI) tool keeps suggesting the potential of isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the CWA, higher on Monday and Tuesday. As mentioned in the previous discussion, winds will become lighter late Monday night and Tuesday, meaning that theres a high chance of stationary showers and thunderstorms. Given the expected conditions, the potential of flooding and lightning will increase, particularly over mountain ranges and eastern Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Conditions should gradually improve by Wednesday, as a drier air mass may filter into the region. Although PWAT may drop to seasonal values (1.5 - 1.7 inches), the available moisture combined with diurnal heating and local effects could trigger convection activity in the afternoon, affecting mainly portions of interior and western Puerto Rico, including the San Juan Metropolitan Area. Nevertheless, the likeliest scenario could be mostly ponding of water over roadways, urban, and poorly drained areas. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa in the next few days, with a 20% chance of cyclonic formation in the next 7 days. The latest model solutions suggest an increase in moisture content due to this tropical wave approaching the Caribbean Basin by late Thursday night, but the variability between them is high, introducing uncertainty to the forecast. Hence, well keep monitoring the development of this system. AVIATION... (TAFs 06z) VFR conditions will prevail today for all TAFs. However, a few TSRA will develop during the afternoon, between 02/15-22z, which could impact JSJ or JBQ, creating brief MVFR conditions if those TSRA move over them. Winds will prevail mainly from the S-SE at 5-10 kt, with sea breeze variations after 02/13z, and gusty winds near TSRA. Winds will turn calm to light and VRB aft 02/23z. MARINE... A col near the region will promote a light to gentle southerly wind flow across the islands through Friday. A long-period north to northwesterly swell will begin to spread across the local Atlantic waters late tonight and into Friday, deteriorating marine and coastal conditions through early next week. Additionally, a weak tropical wave is expected to move over the Lesser Antilles by Friday, moving near the islands by Saturday. At the same time, a frontal boundary will remain positioned to the north over the Atlantic. BEACH FORECAST... No major changes were introduced to the beach forecast. As anticipated, the rip current risk increased to moderate mainly for the northern beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra. As mentioned in previous discussions, a long-period swell will arrive late tonight, bringing hazardous beach conditions through at least early next week. Life-threatening rip currents are expected along the north- facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands, spreading over west-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands during the weekend. Additionally, the potential of High Surf conditions is increasing due to high chance of breaking waves above 10 feet. Therefore, citizens and visitors are encouraged to continue monitoring the beach forecast and heed the advice of the flag warning system. Regarding the weather forecast, beachgoers should stay weather alert due to the potential of showers and thunderstorms near and/or approaching the beach zone, particularly over the western and northeastern coastal areas of Puerto Rico. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...Heat Advisory until 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001>005-007- 008-010>013. High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012. High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 6 AM AST Monday for PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012. VI...Heat Advisory until 5 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ001-002. High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for VIZ001. High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 6 AM AST Monday for VIZ001. AM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM AST Monday for AMZ711. Small Craft Advisory from noon Friday to 4 AM AST Monday for AMZ712-716-741-742. && $$ |
| #1246925 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:42 PM 02.Oct.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1237 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Dangerous Beach & Marine Impacts through the Weekend. High Rip Current Risk, High Surf & Small Craft Advisory. Wind Gusts at the Coast of 30 to 40 mph Today through Saturday - Extended Minor to Moderate Tidal Flooding through the Weekend. Coastal Flood Advisory for St. Johns River Basin, Northeast FL & Southeast GA - Rain Chances Increase Today through Weekend. Daily Rounds of Heavy Rain & Isolated Embedded Thunderstorms. Localized Flood Risk at Coast & Low-lying Locations && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 1233 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Local Nor`easter conditions will continue to ramp up through tonight as the coastal trough over the Atlantic waters sharpens up and lifts northward. This will re-focus the shower and embedded storm activity that is currently just across Flagler county and expand it across the entire NE FL/SE GA coastline and I-95 corridor through tonight with windy conditions at the beachfront locations along with the risk of heavy rainfall at times. Rainfall amounts not excessive enough for a Flood Watch at this time, but may need to be posted sometime on Friday or the weekend as better guidance on where the convergent rain bands will set up. Sustained NE winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph will continue for the Atlantic Coastal counties through tonight, just below Wind Advisory criteria, while lesser breezy type NE winds of 15-20G25 mph winds over inland areas this afternoon will fade to 10-15G20 mph over inland areas through tonight. Overnight lows will remain fairly close to normal values in the middle 60s inland SE GA, upper 60s inland NE FL and lower/middle 70s for Atlantic Coastal areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 1233 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Increasing chances for showers and storms going into the weekend as moist onshore flow from out of the Atlantic builds south of high pressure to the north and burgeoning low pressure to the south, resulting in conditions somewhat similar to a nor`easter pattern with gusty northeasterly-easterly winds and a potential for excessive rainfall capable of producing local flooding conditions as PWAT values rise to be in excess of 2.2 inches. Wind speeds during this period are anticipated to rise to be about 15-25 mph with gusts of 35 mph. High temperatures for the end of the week and into the weekend will rise into the lower to mid 80s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the upper 60s and lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1233 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Showers and storms will become more widespread through the weekend and into the beginning of next week with area-wide convection building as the developing low pressure system moves across the Florida peninsula and starts moving towards the northwest, resulting in a more southerly prevailing flow over the forecast area leading to a weaker onshore surface winds as the week progresses with a corresponding reduction in convective developments as drier air starts to advect into the region by Wednesday. Temperatures will experience a slight warming trend through the coming week with daytime high temperatures rising to be near and slightly above the seasonal average by midweek. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 729 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Local Nor`easter impacts to local terminals expected over the next 24 hours as rain bands currently south of the local terminals will shift northward and impact the coastal terminals of CRG/SSI/SGJ with widespread MVFR CIGS/VSBYS and gusty NE winds from this afternoon through tonight, while impacts will be more tempered at the inland TAF sites as NE winds increase today, but then slowly weaken after sunset, with muted rainfall chances, especially at VQQ/GNV where conds will remain closer to VFR at times. Peak wind gusts will be around 30 knots this afternoon at coastal terminals but remain close to 30 knots through the night at SSI/SGJ. && .MARINE... Issued at 1233 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Small Craft Advisory conditions with strong northeasterly winds and elevated seas will persist across the coastal waters through the upcoming weekend and into next week, along with occasional wind gusts to Gale Force. Coastal troughing will sharpen over our local waters late this week, generating increasing chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms. Winds will shift to easterly by Friday and the weekend as high pressure shifts offshore of the Carolinas. Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents and high surf advisory conditions, along with moderate to severe beach erosion will continue at Atlantic beachfront locations through late this week and through the upcoming weekend. Surf/breakers into the 7-10 ft range will continue late this week through the upcoming weekend. Moderate to severe beach erosion is expected at Atlantic beachfront locations during times of high tide through the upcoming weekend as high surf advisories remain in place. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1233 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Minor to locally Moderate tidal flooding will continue along the St. Johns River from downtown JAX southward and along the NE FL Atlantic inter-coastal areas of St. Johns/Flagler counties early this afternoon, then will expand to the rest of the St. Johns River and Atlantic Coastal areas from JAX northward through Brunswick with the next high tide cycle this afternoon and evening and have expanded the current Coastal Flood Advisory as peak water levels remain generally in the 1.5 to 2.0 ft above MHHW range. The continued NE surge of winds through the upcoming weekend will continue to trap more water in the St. Johns River Basin and combine with higher astronomical tides due to the full Moon by the Friday afternoon and evening high tide cycle and expect water levels to peak in the 2 to 2.5 ft range above MHHW in the St Johns River Basin, and along the ICWW of the NE FL coast and have pushed the Coastal Flood Watch to start in these locations for more widespread Moderate coastal/tidal flooding, which will continue through the entire weekend, while mainly Minor Coastal Flooding will continue from Nassau County northward along the SE GA coastline during times of high tide. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 63 82 65 82 / 0 10 10 30 SSI 70 80 71 81 / 40 50 40 60 JAX 69 83 70 83 / 40 70 30 70 SGJ 71 83 72 82 / 50 70 50 80 GNV 68 85 69 85 / 10 40 20 60 OCF 69 84 71 82 / 10 40 20 70 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ124-125-138-233- 333. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ124. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for FLZ125-225. Coastal Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening for FLZ125-132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for FLZ132-137-138- 233-325-333-633. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for GAZ154-166. High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1246924 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:57 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1140 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1135 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 The environment surrounding the Florida Keys is transitioning back to a more seasonal state as high pressure along the Eastern Seaboard settles in. GOES-19 visible imagery notes northeast to east breezes accelerating across the Florida Peninsula while a lazy convergence boundary drifts southwest through our waters. Along this boundary, KBYX radar detects a handful of isolated showers along with an embedded thunderstorm or two. Variable breezes from earlier this morning quickly transitioned to gentle north to northeast breezes as the previously mentioned convergence boundary marched over. Mostly clear skies now persist over the island chain as temperatures report in the mid 80s with dewpoints persisting in the mid to upper 70s. While some pockets of dry air remain in our CWA, the overall thermodynamic profile has moistened up from last night. This morning`s KKEY 12z sounding measured a PW increase of about a tenth of an inch from last night nosing the value above the 25th percentile for the day. While this does not sound all that impressive, northeasterly low level winds will help pull in residual moisture left behind by now Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda over the Florida Peninsula and Bahamas. This flow may also pull in showers that develop on mainland Florida into our eastern waters later today. Opted to hold a chance of showers for the day keeping us near normal for this time of year. As high pressure along the Eastern Seaboard continues to extend south, winds will continue to freshen out of the northeast overnight. Accelerating flow along with the promise of more moisture will keep chance PoPs into tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 1135 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, high pressure is slowly moving across the eastern U.S., which will maintain a northeast wind across our waters today. This high will begin moving into the western North Atlantic later today and into the overnight and gradually build. This will lead to freshening northeast to east breezes into Friday evening. Winds will then briefly clock around towards the southeast for the upcoming weekend and return from the east early next week. Another period of moderate to fresh breezes is possible starting Monday night. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VRF conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH today. While stray showers cannot be ruled out, high uncertainty in exact timing and location will leave mention out of either TAF for now. Near surface winds will be out of the northeast to east at 5 to 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 88 77 88 77 / 30 30 30 40 Marathon 87 77 85 77 / 30 30 40 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1246918 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1029 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Wet weather pattern next several days with increased winds/ moisture off the Atlantic supporting locally heavy rainfall especially along the coast. Localized flooding will be a concern through this weekend. - Prolonged, dangerous beach and marine conditions will continue into the weekend with life-threatening rip currents, high surf with breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet, and minor to moderate beach erosion especially near times of high tide. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1011 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Heavy rainfall threat for this morning materialized across the northern counties where onshore flow increased earlier, producing training bands of moderate to at times heavy showers north of the Beachline, including the Daytona Beach area and portions of the northern Orlando Metro. Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.5-2" and locally high amounts to 4" have been occuring in these bands. This activity will gradually push west and south through the rest of the day, while additional showers and storms continue to move onshore, shifting the threat for heavy rainfall to southern coast and possibly inland by the afternoon and evening. Ponding of water on roads and minor flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas will be the primary storm impact in this low instability/high moisture environment, with occasional cloud to ground lighting and some gusty winds also possible. Dangerous coastal and marine conditions continue, and beach goers are urged to not enter the life-threatening surf. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Central Florida Atlantic waters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Today-Fri...High pressure wedging down the eastern seaboard today will increase the NE-E wind flow and produce a breezy/gusty day. This onshore flow will support a moistening of the atmos and result in widespread showers and embedded storms. There is support aloft in the form of a weak nearly stationary trough as well as a developing coastal (inverted) low level trough. With MUCAPE near 1000 J/Kg and PWATs 1.8"-2.0", ingredients are coming together to produce a risk of excessive rainfall (with efficient rain rates) for portions of the central FL Atlc coast. Coastal convergence as well as back-building storms forming bands of heavy rain will affect portions of the Space and Treasure coasts. Given the strength of the onshore flow, some of these showers will push well inland and affect Orlando metro. Rainfall amounts of 1-3" will occur with locally 4"+ and the highest amounts should occur near the coast. One or more Flood Advisories look likely over this period. The tightening pressure gradient around the high pressure to the north will produce northeast to east winds 15-25mph with higher gusts esp along the coast. There will not be significant diurnal range in temps esp along the coast due to very mild low temps holding in the mid to upper 70s and max temps only in the low to mid 80s. A little larger diurnal range will occur over the interior. Sat-Wed...Some model guidance show a weak low developing near the NW Bahamas Fri night and track NW across south FL Sat. NHC has started outlooking this area for low prob (10%) for tropical development. If this occurs, even a weak (non tropical) low would enhance low level convergence and heavy rain threat further across east central FL. If more heavy rain is anticipated this weekend, we may need a Flood Watch. By Sunday, the deepest moisture is forecast to lift north and the pressure gradient eases though remaining onshore. Rain chances should gradually decrease next week though remaining at least scattered (50 percent). Would not be surprised if we are able to lower PoPs further by mid week. Temps look close to seasonable in the mid to upper 80s. && .MARINE... Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Tight NE to E pressure gradient will develop over the local Atlc waters today around high pressure wedging down the eastern seaboard. Thus, hazardous to dangerous boating conditions are forecast to continue across the local Atlantic waters over the next several days. Wind speeds 15-25 knots with combined seas (wind wave and swell) of 7-12 feet. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will continue through Sat for all the waters. There should be some relaxation of the pressure gradient Sun-Mon as winds turn E-SE but seas will be slow to subside so an extension of the SCA appears likely to include Sunday, at least for the offshore waters. Meanwhile, moisture increases locally which will promote a high coverage of showers and isolated storms containing heavy rain and cloud to water lightning. Brief waterspouts will also be possible especially where cell mergers occur or spin-ups driven by coastal convergence. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 701 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VCSH at all terminals to start the 12Z TAF as light showers have already spread across east central Florida. Expecting high coverage through the day, especially from the greater Orlando terminals southward. TEMPOs are included from ISM/MCO/TIX southward, attempting to narrow down the most reasonable timing of SHRA impacts. However, AMDs will likely be needed as the day evolves. VCSH lingers along the coast overnight with persistent onshore moving showers. East-northeast winds become breezy today, gusting 20-25 kts. Winds remain elevated along the coast overnight from MLB southward. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 83 73 83 73 / 60 70 70 60 MCO 85 73 85 73 / 60 50 60 50 MLB 84 75 83 75 / 70 70 70 70 VRB 85 74 84 75 / 70 70 70 70 LEE 85 72 84 72 / 50 30 50 30 SFB 85 73 84 73 / 60 50 60 50 ORL 84 73 84 73 / 60 50 60 50 FPR 85 73 83 74 / 70 70 70 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ550-552-555- 570-572-575. && $$ |
| #1246917 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:03 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 949 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in from mid to late week with cooler and drier weather returning. A warm-up is expected heading into the weekend, with dry conditions continuing through next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 950 AM EDT Thursday... Key Message: - Below average temperatures and pleasant conditions today. - Gust winds expected near the coast today, followed by a decrease in winds overnight. Hurricane Imelda continues to moves farther away from the U.S. (now east of Bermuda) this morning, and the gradient between the expansive high centered across eastern Canada has started to relax. Wind gusts along the coast still range from 20 to 25 mph. Mostly sunny this morning with temperatures in the lower 60s to near 70F, after morning lows that ranged from the mid 40s to around 50F inland, to the lower/mid 60s at the coast. The high will slide southeastwards today and move across the Northeast. Imelda will track further into the North Atlantic, resulting in a continued decrease in winds. Gusts of 20 to 25 mph will linger along the coast through the early evening, but a sharp decrease in winds is expected by tonight. As we saw yesterday, another scattered low-level cloud deck will likely develop across the forecast area. With the cooler, drier airmass expected to remain in place today, no rain is in the forecast and temperatures are expected to remain slightly below normal with highs reach the upper 60s to lower 70s. Skies will start to clear this evening, so another round of radiational cooling is likely in inland areas tonight. Lows are forecast to drop into the mid-upper 40s inland, while areas near the coast will see temperatures in the mid 50s to around 60F. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Warming temperatures expected this weekend, with rain-free conditions continuing. Cooler temperatures will continue through Friday as the high continues to pump in a modified continental airmass across the region. Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s on Friday. The high to our north will slowly slide southwards Friday and reach the Mid- Atlantic coast by the afternoon. Light winds are expected at this time as the gradient will have weakened considerably with the high overhead. High pressure will remain dominant through the weekend, but temperatures will start to moderate on Saturday as an amplified mid-upper level ridge slides over the East Coast. Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s on Saturday, increasing further into the upper 70s on Sunday. Overnight temperatures Saturday will drop to 50- 55F inland and 55-60F along the coast. By Sunday, overnight temperatures will have moderate into the mid to upper 50s inland to lower to mid 60s near the coast. Although the air mass will become modified, dry conditions are anticipated as high pressure remains in place across the region. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Continued warmer temperatures to start the week, with a chance for rain coming late Tuesday as a possible front moves through the area. The synoptic pattern on Monday will remain the similar to the weekend with ridging aloft and high pressure dominating at the surface, but an upper-level trough will be approaching the region from the Great Lakes area. This will shove the high off the Mid- Atlantic coast, which will result in winds shifting to a more southerly direction. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be above normal for this time of year, likely reaching near 80F into the lower 80s. The next best shot at rain will be late Tuesday through Wednesday as a surface front associated with the aforementioned upper trough possibly moves across the region, otherwise, dry conditions will prevail. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 648 AM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions prevail at all terminals this morning. Mostly clear skies will continue, with potentially a SCT cloud deck moving across ECG/PHF/ORF over the next few hours. Later this morning, SCT CIGs will likely expand to the remainder of the terminals, with intermittent MVFR CIGs possible. Confidence is very low in any lowered MVFR CIGs, so have left them out of the TAFs for now. Winds will gradually decrease today, with gusts up to 15-25 kts (mainly at the coastal terminals) through the afternoon before gusts drop off in the evening. Primarily VFR conditions are anticipated through Friday with the potential for some fog Friday night into Sat morning across a portion of the area (best chance across the Piedmont). && .MARINE... As of 250 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - SCAs in effect for all coastal waters due to elevated NE winds and seas of 5-10ft. - SCAs for the lower Ches Bay, lower James River, and the Currituck Sound look to come down late today into tonight. - Gradually improving conditions through the early weekend, then pleasant conditions expected into early next week. Latest weather analysis reveals 1032+mb sfc high pressure building south of QC/New England into the Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas early this morning. Tropical Cyclone Imelda was visible on early morning IR/WV satellite near Bermuda, and will move NE away from the island through today. Locally E-NE winds remain elevated, but have diminished a bit over the past few hours, as the gradient slowly slackens between the departing Imelda and high pressure building over the waters. Seas remain elevated in the 8-12 ft range, comprised of mainly E 10-12 second swell. Waves are 1-2 ft on the upper bay, rivers and sound, with 2-6 ft in the lower bay, highest at the mouth of the bay. Small Craft Advisories have been discontinued north of New Point Comfort, but continue for the lower Ches Bay, Atlantic coastal waters, Currituck Sound, and the lower James River. The coastal waters will remain in SCA into the upcoming weekend, mainly for seas. The Currituck Sound, lower James River and adjacent bay zone should drop below SCA thresholds by late afternoon/early evening. Remaining breezy this morning, with winds gradually diminishing through the day, as the pressure gradient slowly slackens with high pressure building into the region. NE winds 10-15 kt north, 15-20 kt southern waters, with gusts to 25-30 kt this morning slowly diminishing this afternoon. That trend continues tonight and Friday, as high pressure builds overhead. Winds should be down to 10-15kt tonight, then 5-10kt by Friday evening. Seas will be held up mainly due to the lingering swell from the offshore tropical systems and onshore flow. Expecting seas still in the 7-10ft range over the Atlantic coast tonight into Friday, subsiding to 5-8ft by Friday morning. SCA should finally come down Saturday afternoon and evening, from south to north. More benign boating conditions expected by late in the weekend into early next week with high pressure remains in place just offshore. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 500 AM EDT Thursday... Tidal anomalies have risen to 2-2.25 feet above astronomical tides this morning, with widespread minor flooding. Have added a Coastal Flood Warning for the Tidal Potomac River, as tidal anomalies continue to slowly climb this morning. Even as winds diminish, water levels are expected to be slightly lower due to the astronomically lower tide cycle this morning, but in light of a strong flood tide this morning that will keep anomalies remaining steady, expect at least another 1-2 rounds of minor coastal flooding impacts along the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore, the remaining tidal rivers of eastern VA, and southside Hampton Roads. Advisories have been extended until Thursday night for most of these areas except Accomack/Northampton Counties, which will see mainly nuisance/sub-minor threshold type flooding. Mainly nuisance flooding is also expected on the Atlantic coast with subsequent high tides, so not anticipating the need for additional advisories here (although further statements are possible). Will need to monitor the tidal Potomac. Given the high anomalies, could potentially need another round of Coastal Flood Warnings for the evening tide cycle. At the very least, Advisory level water levels are anticipated through the Fri morning tide cycle. High Surf Advisories slowly drop off later today and tonight, as seas slowly subside, but high rip risk persists into the upcoming weekend. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for MDZ021>023. High Surf Advisory until noon EDT today for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory until noon EDT today for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Warning until noon EDT today for VAZ075-077. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for VAZ076-078- 522. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ082- 084>086-089-090-093-523. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ083- 518-520. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095>098-524-525. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632- 638. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658. && $$ |
| #1246915 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:09 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 858 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 858 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 The previous forecast appears to be on track, and no major changes were made. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 206 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 The "backdoor" frontal passage has stalled over the NE Gulf. A tightening pressure gradient will increase winds over land today, making it a little breezy with gusts up to 30 mph. Dew points will be noticeably lower with values falling into the low to mid 50s for the Tri-State region, except the SE FL Big Bend. Temperatures today will remain warm with highs in the low to mid 80s, with pockets of upper 80s to around 90 degrees along the immediate coast this afternoon. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid-60s. There is an isolated chance for spotty showers along the coast this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 206 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 The tight pressure gradient generating the gusty winds up to 25 mph will continue to hold in place through the weekend. During the day on Saturday, an inverted trough appears to move across the NE Gulf, allowing moisture advection with increasing dew points. PWATs increasing to be above 2 inches, and enough forcing to generate scattered PoPs of 50%-70% for Sunday and Monday. Upper level ridging begins to build back in by Tuesday, lowering our rain chances through the rest of the period. Afternoon high temperatures during the period will generally be in the mid-80s. Overnight low temperatures will be in upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM... && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VFR through the period, with one exception. MVFR cigs may develop into southeast Georgia and move into VLD after 07Z. Otherwise, northeast winds will become gusty beginning mid morning through the day with speeds 18-22 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 206 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Winds and seas are on the rise. A cold front stalling over the waters will cause a tightening pressure gradient that will have northeasterly winds at Advisory level, 20-25 kts, with gusts around 30 kts through the weekend. Seas are expected to rise to 5-8 feet with occasional 9-foot waves in our western offshore waters. Showers and thunderstorms are likely, mainly in our offshore waters, through the weekend. Winds and seas will begin to relax at the start of the work week as the center of the surface high to our north shifts to the east. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 206 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Between high pressure to our north and a stalled cold front to our south, a tightening pressure gradient will increase our winds over land for the next few days. Transport winds will be easterly/northeasterly at around 15-25 mph through the weekend. Drier air will also be filtering into the Tri-State region with dew points in the 50s for our Georgia and Alabama districts. MinRH will generally range from the low 30s% in AL and GA, with 40s% in Florida today, with gradually increasing values through the rest of the week into the weekend. Dispersions will be fair to moderate through the period with pockets of high dispersions throughout for the next few days. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 206 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Rainfall amounts this weekend are expected to range from about a half-inch up to about an inch. Although any rain is beneficial, with local rivers flowing below normal, this will not be enough to cause any hydro concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 85 67 84 68 / 10 0 10 0 Panama City 87 68 85 69 / 20 0 10 10 Dothan 83 63 82 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 82 64 83 66 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 84 67 83 67 / 0 0 10 0 Cross City 87 68 86 69 / 20 10 40 10 Apalachicola 84 70 83 71 / 30 10 30 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Sunday for GMZ730- 751-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1246914 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:54 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 736 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 An active pattern begins to set up for South Florida today as breezy ENE winds near the surface continue to sustain moisture advection over the region, and an upper level trough is forecast to slide eastward across the Florida peninsula. The combination of these factors will help support scattered showers and thunderstorms developing throughout the day today, generally moving south- southwest. Some of these storms could bring heavy rain and gusty winds, and localized street flooding could be possible with any heavy downpours. Portions of the Palm Beach and Broward county metro areas will be under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding today. The trough will eventually open up as it moves over the Atlantic late tonight, but conditions are forecast to remain unsettled as guidance shows a mid-level low potentially developing over the Bahamas. This would help enhance rainfall chances and coverage overnight and into Friday, especially for areas along the immediate coast, and over the local Atlantic waters. The 00Z HREF 24-hour precip probabilities capture this scenario pretty well, with a handful of spots along the East Coast showing 40-50% chance of exceeding 2" of rain, and a few even showing 30-40% of exceeding 4 inches over the same time period. To that effect, WPC has placed southeast FL under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding. Slightly lower temperatures forecast through the short term period given greater cloud coverage and convective activity. Highs will top out in the upper 80s and low 90s, while overnight lows will stay in the low to mid 70s across the whole area. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 By Saturday, the aforementioned mid-level low is forecast to begin lifting northward, but it`s influence will still be felt across South Florida, where conditions will remain wet and unsettled through the weekend. Rounds of scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon, with POPs in the 50-70% range. Best chances are forecast to be constrained north of Alligator Alley. Surface high will being to build across the area early next week, signaling a return to the more routine summertime regime of easterly winds and afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the interior and southwest. High temperatures through the extended period will generally reach the low 90s, with overnight lows in the low-mid 70s across the interior and up to the upper 70s along the coasts. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 736 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions will be likely through the period as repeated rounds of SHRA move along the East Coast today. Breezy easterly-northeasterly winds will prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A moderate northeasterly breeze is expected across the local waters for the rest of the week. Hazardous seas are expected to continue for the Atlantic waters over the next few days as ongoing swell continues behind Hurricane Imelda. Seas will range from 6-9 feet today and are expected to rise further for Friday and this weekend. Additionally, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic waters and the northern Gulf waters through late Friday night. && .BEACHES... Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Fresh onshore flow and elevated swell behind Hurricane Imelda will result in a high risk of rip currents and high surf heights (for Palm Beach county beaches) through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 88 75 85 75 / 70 60 70 60 West Kendall 88 75 85 74 / 70 50 70 50 Opa-Locka 88 75 85 75 / 70 60 70 60 Homestead 87 75 85 75 / 60 50 70 60 Fort Lauderdale 86 75 84 75 / 70 70 70 60 N Ft Lauderdale 87 75 84 75 / 70 70 70 60 Pembroke Pines 88 75 87 76 / 70 60 70 60 West Palm Beach 85 75 84 75 / 80 70 70 60 Boca Raton 87 74 85 75 / 70 70 70 60 Naples 90 74 88 74 / 80 40 70 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ168-172-173. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ168. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-670. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ651-671. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Saturday for GMZ656-676. && $$ |
| #1246913 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:51 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 744 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Dangerous Beach & Marine Impacts through the Weekend. High Rip Current Risk, High Surf & Small Craft Advisory. Wind Gusts at the Coast up to 30 mph to near 40 mph Today through Saturday - Extended Minor to Moderate Tidal Flooding through the Weekend. St. Johns River Basin, Northeast FL & Southeast GA Coasts & Portions of ICWW. Coastal Flood Advisory in Effect & Coastal Flood Watch in Effect - Rain Chance Increase Today through Weekend. Daily Rounds of Heavy Rain & Isolated Embedded Thunderstorms. Localized Flood Risk at Coast & Low-lying Locations && .UPDATE... Issued at 729 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Forecast on track as local Nor`easter conditions will increase and spread northward from Flagler/St. Johns counties across the rest of coastal NE FL this afternoon and into coastal SE GA tonight. Strong NE winds sustained at 20-25 mph with gusts into the 30-40 mph will continue through tonight at Atlantic beachfront locations with lesser breezy NE winds of 10-20G25-30 mph inland locations. A wind advisory may need to be posted for portions of the Atlantic coast for gusts over 40 mph, but models still trying to determine where best pinched gradient will set-up, which actually may be from JAX northward to Brunswick, GA along the SE GA coastal areas. Locally heavy rainfall potential in any of the onshore moving bands but previous drier period of weather and convergent bands moving northward up the Atlantic Coast through tonight, will make it hard to pinpoint any flood watches today, but will be more likely into the upcoming weekend as rainfall totals add-up. Max Temps will be at slightly below normal values with highs in the lower 80s along the coast and middle 80s further inland. && .NEAR TERM... (Today through Tonight) Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A surge of northeasterly winds develops across the region as strong high pressure ridging wedges down the eastern seaboard. An inverted coastal trough sharpens forming scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms over the coastal waters shifting onshore in waves today into tonight. Lingering drier air (PWATs 1.3-1.5 in) and subsidence will limit shower activity to mainly coastal areas and the St Johns River Basin. Breezy NE winds are already gusting up to 30 mph along the coast early this morning. Today, wind gusts will increase to 20-25 mph inland to 30-35 mph along the coast. A few spots along the coast may reach up to 40 mph. In the NE flow, daytime highs will range from the upper 70s along the SE GA coast to the mid 80s along the I-75 corridor. Overnight lows will range from the low 60s inland SE GA to the low 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 An increasingly unsettled weather regime will occur during this time period, to including overcast skies, increased rain chances area-wide with localized flooding rainfall, hazardous marine winds and seas, coastal tidal flooding, and rough and dangerous surf. Surface high pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic will slowly shift eastward through the period while an area of low pressure and frontal boundary slowly move north from the southern Gulf and south FL. A broad mid/upper level trough also extends across the Gulf to most of the FL peninsula this period that slowly weakens and moves north. An inverted trough is also likely to stay intact off the southeast U.S. coast. This synoptic combination along with a gradual veering wind profile will lead to increased moisture and low level convergence supporting higher chances of showers and embedded thunderstorm. The rainfall risk increases for the area on Saturday as PWAT values rise to about the 90th percentile relative to climatology with values of about 1.95 inches. This more elevated risk of showers and embedded storms continues into Saturday night. Heaviest rainfall is emphasized along the coastal areas. Total rainfall during this period is forecast at about 1-2 inches coast and about 0.50 inches or less inland. However, some higher amounts possible for coastal counties, especially for St Johns, Flagler, and eastern Putnam counties where values could reach to around 3-4 inches. This will support a risk of flooding and be exacerbated by the tidal flooding we are expecting. Gusty east to northeast coastal winds also expected during the period with winds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 35 mph. Some outside chances of 40 mph gusts especially in the shower activity. Can`t rule out the need for a wind advisory coastal zones for pure pressure gradient winds. Any strong gusts in showers of 40-45 mph will be convective in nature and thus could be covered by Special Weather Statements (SPS). High temperatures will be a bit below normal in the 80-85 degree range and lows will trend a bit higher due to clouds and precip. Lows are forecast in the mid 60s over inland southeast GA to lower 70s coast and then trend to mostly about 70-75 deg Sat night. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A 2028 mb high pressure system is forecast to be positioned off the Mid Atlantic states on Sunday and is forecast to move further east next week as a cold front moves into the eastern U.S. and into the TN Valley. The low level flow for our area will continue to feed moisture into the area off the Atlantic on east- southeast surface winds. For the first couple of days, the models still show some broad surface low pressure over the Gulf with enhanced easterly winds and a good possibility of numerous to widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms on Sunday and probably into Monday. Some drier air begins to work into the area late Monday into Tuesday as mean deep layer winds veer to south- southeast and push deep moisture north of the area. Though lesser chances of showers and storms are anticipated Tue-Wed as onshore flow weakens, sufficient moisture and daytime heating will still lead to a chance of convection each day. For overnight hours, at least few showers will be possible along coastal areas due to the persistent moist easterly flow. The breezy easterly winds continue on Sunday and Monday and probably will trend a little lower Tue-Wed as the pressure gradient relaxes more. As far as impacts, minor to moderate coastal flooding is likely to continue at least for Sun-Tue, with trapped tides also in the St Johns River Basin. Rainfall amounts of up to 2-4 inches are forecast for the coastal areas. Lesser rainfall amounts expected after Tuesday. The beaches will continue to see enhanced surf heights, some beach erosion, and strong rip currents. Below normal highs by 3-5 degrees are forecast on Sunday and then will start to trend a bit warmer toward climate during the rest of the period. Lows are forecast in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with warmest readings at the coast. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 729 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Local Nor`easter impacts to local terminals expected over the next 24 hours as rain bands currently south of the local terminals will shift northward and impact the coastal terminals of CRG/SSI/SGJ with widespread MVFR CIGS/VSBYS and gusty NE winds from this afternoon through tonight, while impacts will be more tempered at the inland TAF sites as NE winds increase today, but then slowly weaken after sunset, with muted rainfall chances, especially at VQQ/GNV where conds will remain closer to VFR at times. Peak wind gusts will be around 30 knots this afternoon at coastal terminals but remain close to 30 knots through the night at SSI/SGJ. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Small Craft Advisory conditions with strong northeasterly winds and elevated seas will persist across the coastal waters through the upcoming weekend and into next week, along with occasional wind gusts to Gale Force. Strong high pressure will wedge down the southeastern seaboard today. Coastal troughing will sharpen over our local waters late this week, generating increasing chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms. Winds will shift to easterly by Friday and the weekend as high pressure shifts offshore of the Mid- Atlantic states. Rip currents: Rough seas and high wind waves will maintain high rip current risk today and continuing through the weekend. Surf: Surf continues to reach toward the 6-10 foot range through the week. Surf will be slow to subside this week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Minor flooding observed these past couple of high tide cycles will continue today for areas along the St. Johns River from downtown JAX southward and along the St. Johns/Flagler coasts and Intracoastal Waterways. This will keep the Coastal Flood Advisory in place today as peak water levels remain generally in the 1.5 to 2.0 ft above MHHW range. The ENE surge of winds combined with higher astronomical tides due to the approaching full Moon and lingering swells from Imelda will result in minor coastal flooding expanding to the entire St. Johns River Basin and all beachfront locations of NE FL/SE GA through the weekend. Guidance continues to show the potential for moderate coastal flooding along the St. Johns/Flagler coasts and St. Johns river south of Jacksonville with water levels peaking in the 2.0 to 2.5 ft above MHHW. A Coastal Flood Watch is in effect to account for this potential. Trapped tides in the St. Johns River will likely prolong flooding into next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 82 63 82 65 / 10 20 10 10 SSI 78 70 80 71 / 40 60 50 40 JAX 81 69 83 70 / 50 60 70 30 SGJ 83 71 83 72 / 60 70 70 50 GNV 85 68 85 69 / 30 30 40 20 OCF 85 69 84 71 / 40 20 40 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ124-125-138-233- 333. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ124-125. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ132- 137-138-233-333-633. Coastal Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday evening for FLZ132-137-138-233-333-633. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ325. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for GAZ154-166. High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1246909 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:36 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 624 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 620 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Hazardous beach conditions this weekend becoming more likely due to minor coastal flooding. - Increased risk of dangerous swimming conditions due to rip currents this weekend. Please use caution at the beach! - Daily low to medium (20-50%) chance of showers and storms Friday into early next week. When thunder roars, go indoors! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 We`ll start off today mainly dry across the area with only a very low (10%) chance of showers/storms along the seabreeze over the inland Coastal Plains this afternoon as moisture starts to increase. A broad mid-level low over the northern Gulf Coast will sag southwest into the northwestern Gulf this weekend, then slowly move westward into Mexico early next week before a mid-level ridge dominates over the southern Great Plains the middle of next week. Being in the vicinity of the mid-level low will induce mid-level lift support and increase moisture to near the 75th percentile with PWATs (1.5-1.75"). This combination in addition to surface heating and the afternoon seabreeze, will allow for a low to medium (20-50%) chance of showers and thunderstorms daily beginning Friday and continuing into early next week. Greatest chances will remain over the open waters, coast, and along the seabreeze. Our main concerns will remain focused on dangerous swimming conditions and hazardous beach conditions this weekend, with minor coastal flooding becoming more likely and an increased risk of rip currents. Although ensemble uncertainty (10-90th percentile) remains quite high between 1.7-2.0ft MSL at Aransas Pass, there are several factors in play: astronomical high tide approaching with a full moon phase, swell periods around 8 seconds, and moderate northeasterly winds inducing the Ekman transport mechanism. Please use caution if going to the beach! && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Have fog at VCT with VSBYs dropping as low as 4SM. Should dissipate after sunrise with VFR conditions across South Texas. Light and variable winds will veer southeast towards late afternoon. Overnight, mostly VFR conditions but have included MVFR VSBYs for VCT for fog Friday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A light to gentle northeasterly to easterly breeze (BF 2-3) will continue through Thursday night before increasing to a moderate to strong breeze (BF 4-6) Friday and continuing through Saturday evening, hovering around advisory criteria. Winds are expected to decrease to a gentle to moderate breeze (BF 3-4) Sunday with winds shifting east to southeasterly early next week. Low shower and thunderstorm chances return Thursday night, then increase to a medium to high, 50-80% chance this weekend. Medium rain chances of 30-50% will persist heading into the middle of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Afternoon minimum relative humidity will generally range from 25-35% across the Inland Coastal Plains and Brush Country through Friday. Moisture increases Saturday into early next week with minimum relative humidity above 30%. Although Energy Release Component ranges from 50th-90th percentile, weak surface and 20 ft winds will limit the fire risk. Slightly above normal temperatures will continue with low to medium (20-50%) shower and thunderstorm chances Friday and continuing into the middle of next week, mainly along the afternoon seabreeze over the inland Coastal Plains and along the coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 92 72 90 74 / 0 0 40 20 Victoria 94 68 92 67 / 10 0 30 10 Laredo 96 72 96 71 / 0 0 10 0 Alice 95 68 93 69 / 10 0 30 10 Rockport 91 74 89 75 / 0 10 50 30 Cotulla 97 70 96 70 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 93 68 91 71 / 10 0 40 20 Navy Corpus 88 77 87 78 / 10 10 50 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1246908 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:36 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 624 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025 High pressure gradually gives way to low pressure from the Gulf working westward into Texas into late next week. As moisture increases off the Gulf, expect diurnal rain chances to increase this weekend, working inland with the sea breeze each afternoon. Generally a medium (40 to 60) percent chance of rain is expected through the period, with the lowest POPs on Sunday and Monday. ECMWF and NAM PWATs surge above normal by this weekend, with GFS PWATs closer to normal for early October. Either way, with little wind or flow, expect any showers or thunderstorms that develop to be slow-moving and capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, especially along and east of US 77 this weekend and along and east of US 281 by mid week. Seasonal to slightly above normal temperatures are expected through Wednesday with rainfall or cloud cover stifling highs at any locations where activity persists during prime daytime heating hours. Patchy fog may develop across the ranchlands each night. A moderate risk of rip currents along the lower Texas coast likely returns by this weekend, with an increasing swell and period along the western Gulf due to persistent easterly flow. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 No changes needed to the previous issuance of TAFs. VFR will continue to prevail, with light winds and clear to partly cloudy skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025 Generally favorable winds and seas lead into the start of the weekend, with an increasing easterly swell by the end of the weekend bringing a chop to coastal and offshore waters. Brief SCEC conditions are possible beyond 20 nm late Saturday into Sunday. The chance of showers and thunderstorms returns Thursday night and persists through the forecast period, especially offshore, as low pressure slowly works westward across the Gulf. Waterspouts may develop near any showers or thunderstorms this weekend and next week, especially offshore. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 92 74 91 75 / 10 10 50 40 HARLINGEN 93 69 92 71 / 10 0 40 20 MCALLEN 98 72 96 74 / 10 0 20 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 97 69 96 70 / 0 0 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 80 86 79 / 10 10 50 60 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 74 88 74 / 10 10 50 40 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ |
| #1246907 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 621 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...NEW AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1214 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Rain and storm chances slowly increase today and Friday with better chances this weekend. - Winds and seas will increase today through this weekend leading to Small Craft Advisory conditions. - Minor coastal flooding along east facing shores of southeast LA, including portions of the tidal lakes, and Hancock, MS county expected Friday and into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Hurricane Imelda is well off the Atlantic Coast near Bermuda, and will likely become extratropical during the morning. Troughing to the west of Imelda extended into southern Alabama, while ridging extended from the central Great Lakes into Texas. A shortwave was moving through the northern Plains States. The weak troughing to the west of Imelda will gradually orient east- west across the northern Gulf Coast today and Friday. It doesn`t appear that there will be a well defined surface low pressure center, but there will be a mid-level circulation. With strong high pressure centered over New England, this will produce a tighter pressure gradient, with somewhat stronger easterly winds. This will be especially true offshore, where easterly winds will increase to 20 knots by midday and continue through Friday. This will gradually pile up water on east facing shorelines that could begin to produce minor coastal flooding issues during the high tide cycle toward sunrise Friday and again late Friday night. Current indications are that tidal flooding of 1 to 2 feet above normally dry ground could occur in areas prone to coastal flooding. A Coastal Flood Advisory may be issued later today. Precipitable water values could be approaching the 75th percentile south of Interstate 10 over the next 36 hours, but are likely to be between the 25th and 50th percentile across the northwest half of the area. With the troughing in place, that should allow the development of scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two from about the Interstate 10 corridor southward as early as this afternoon, but moreso late tonight and Friday. Any heavy rain through Friday is expected to remain offshore. High temperatures today probably won`t be much different than Wednesday afternoon, upper 80s to near 90 in most areas. More mid and high level clouds, as well as some precipitation, will likely hold highs in the lower and middle 80s from the Interstate 10 corridor southward, and upper 80s across northwest portions of the area on Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 The upper troughing looks to remain in place near the coast through at least the weekend. There may be a bit more of a weak surface low pressure reflection over the Gulf this weekend, before it moves west of the area by Monday. Moisture levels are expected to remain above normal (median is about 1.4 inches) south of the Interstate corridor through the weekend, and could overspread the entire area for a period Saturday night and Sunday. Precipitable water values could peak out around 2 inches on Sunday, around the 90th percentile. If there is a favored day for heavy rain, it would probably be Sunday, with rain chances in the 50 to 70 percent range for most of the area. Some of that could linger into Monday. Cumulatively, some areas south of a Gulfport-New Orleans-Houma line could see 2-4 inches of rain or more through Monday. Most of that area would be able to tolerate that much, assuming it doesn`t fall in a short time over an urban area. And in some areas, the rain would be welcome, as September was rather dry with isolated exceptions. The column begins to dry out on Monday as weak mid level ridging builds in along the northern Gulf Coast. May not dry out enough to completely remove precipitation from the forecast, but at least enough to carry lower rain chances even south of the Interstate corridor Tuesday and Wednesday. The coastal flood threat could continue through Saturday into Sunday morning`s high tide cycle before winds diminish enough to reduce the threat. Additionally, the astronomical tide ranges will be diminishing beginning Saturday. High temperatures over the weekend, while being somewhat cooler than the last few days, will still be near to above normal (normal 82- 86F). As the column dries out early next week, highs could bump back up to the upper 80s to around 90. The moist airmass will hold overnight lows a bit above normal though. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VFR mostly through the cycle. There will be convective chances for the immediate coastal terminals this afternoon and perhaps late tonight. Covered this potential with PROBs for now with a lower VIS/CIG if thunderstorms actually do develop. Otherwise, for the coastal terminals easterly surface winds will become gusty as the low level flow strengthens later today. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A low pressure system in the northern Gulf will lead to rougher conditions across the coastal waters for the next few days. The pressure gradient will increase over the coastal waters, and this will allow for an easterly wind to increase to around 20 knots this afternoon. These winds will persist through Sunday as strong high pressure remains over New England and weak low pressure drifts westward across the Gulf. A fairly long fetch across the eastern Gulf will allow produce a decent swell, and this will combine with the wind waves to produce higher seas of up to 9 feet over the open Gulf waters. The gradient should weaken by the end of the weekend, with high pressure building in early next week. Due to the rough conditions expected, the Small Craft Advisory has been expanded to include all of the open Gulf waters, as well as the sounds and Lake Borgne through Saturday evening. The advisory may need extended beyond Saturday evening in later forecasts. Lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas will probably need Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines overnight into Friday, and eventually into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 88 64 85 64 / 10 0 0 0 BTR 90 67 87 67 / 10 0 10 0 ASD 88 64 84 65 / 20 20 20 10 MSY 89 73 85 72 / 20 20 30 20 GPT 86 67 85 68 / 30 20 20 10 PQL 87 64 84 65 / 30 10 10 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight CDT Saturday night for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575- 577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight CDT Saturday night for GMZ534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1246906 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:30 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 624 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Dry conditions continue one more day. Continue to use caution when working with open flame or equipment that can cause sparks and start a fire. - Rain chances rise on Friday into the weekend when moisture deepens enough to allow for some isolated seabreeze showers/storms along the coast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Forecast is still on track as drier conditions persist for one more day. Slim to none rain chances still anticipated today with relative humidity dropping to 29-40 percent during the afternoon hours. These conditions with the presence of dry vegetation & fuels will bring another day of enhanced fire weather concerns across the area. Low wind speeds and gusts are still expected to inhibit the spread of fires, making for easier containment thus mitigating the fire weather danger. Still, use caution when working with open flames, and be mindful of equipment which could create sparks. Ridging should still build over the Plains on Friday while easterly flow develops near the surface from a coastal trough over the Gulf. This will tighten the pressure gradient over the waters, resulting in a rise in winds and seas. In addition, moisture advection will strengthen, resulting in a daily risk of showers/storms. Initially these rain chances will be restricted to more coastal locations south of I-10, but as this moisture builds next week, we could see rain chances reach further inland. Still, the best chances for any showers/storms throughout this period of the forecast will be along the coast and over the waters. Temperatures will be generally above normal throughout the forecast period (3-10 degrees or so), with highs ranging from the upper 80s to mid/lower 90s. 03 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 With a couple exceptions (one quite notable), this is a VFR forecast with main challenge being winds this morning being Light/VRB landbreeze, with winds gradually becoming easterly 5-10 kts for the afternoon - southeasterly right on the coast with the seabreeze, then light/VRB again tonight. Foggy spots SGR and *especially* LBX doing their thing right now, with LBX all the way down to 1/4SM. Expecting things to stay roughly as is or degrade slightly through sunrise, then improve rapidly as the sun rises and temps increase. Do not have a return of BR/FG in their TAFs tonight for now due to uncertainty, but is certainly on the table. && .MARINE... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Light sea breeze, land breeze driven winds are expected today. Afterwards, a coastal trough will set up a long easterly fetch with winds of around 15-20 knots gusting to 25 knots offshore. This will usher in seas of 4 to 7 feet as well, prompting caution flags on Friday and Saturday. Small Craft Advisories could be needed during this period as well. These easterly winds will also enable water levels to reach somewhere between 3.0-3.7 ft MLLW at high tide. Around this time, scattered showers and storms will return to the forecast. Rain chances should then rise over the waters heading into next week. 03 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Active burn bans in SE Texas: Houston (New), Madison, Colorado, and Wharton counties. Dry conditions continue today with afternoon RH values dropping to 29-40% for inland areas. Observed 10 hour fuel moisture across SE Texas shows many areas below the 25th and 10th percentiles, with isolated spots in our west/northwestern counties below the 3rd percentile. These locations will be most prone to wildfires, though once again low wind speeds and gusts should aid in any firefighting/containment efforts. Still, much of SE Texas remains vulnerable to wildfires due to the dry conditions today. Those preforming land clearing should exercise caution, ensuring any fires are contained and have contingency plans should they grow out of control. Individuals should be mindful of equipment that could create unintended sparks, (i.e. loose chains) especially in areas with flammable surfaces. Easterly flow and rising moisture on Friday will lead to improved rain chances over the weekend. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 93 68 91 66 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 93 72 91 70 / 0 0 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 90 77 87 77 / 0 20 40 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1246905 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:30 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 721 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 718 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Mostly VFR conditions through the morning. Showers and storms will develop this afternoon and move west across the area, likely impacting terminals between 18-00Z. Overnight, rain diminishes, however some low MVFR/IFR ceilings could persist. Gusty NE winds expected throughout the day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 88 74 88 74 / 60 10 50 10 FMY 88 72 87 73 / 70 30 60 30 GIF 86 72 86 73 / 60 20 50 30 SRQ 89 72 88 72 / 70 20 50 30 BKV 86 69 86 70 / 50 10 50 10 SPG 86 75 86 75 / 70 20 50 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
| #1246904 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:21 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 712 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Hurricane Imelda and the remnants of Humberto are moving to the northeast and farther away from ENC but will continue to bring coastal impacts to the area through late week due to their respective swells. High pressure will build from the NE into the weekend bringing a prolonged period of NE to E winds with seasonable temperatures and generally dry conditions. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 710 AM Thursday... Key Messages: - Gusty NE winds continue - Coastal impacts continue (see coastal flood section) Hurricane Imelda and the remnants of Humberto continue to move northeast and away from ENC. Over land, a surface high is centered over Quebec and is expanding south across the eastern US. Cloudy skies generally along and east of hwy 17, becoming more clear to the west. The gradient between the offshore systems and the strengthening high will remain tight, which will keep NE winds breezy across the FA. Winds will be strongest along the OBX and Downeast Carteret with gusts up to 35 mph in the afternoon today. With drier high pressure building in from the north, a rain free forecast continues with enough breaks in the clouds for us to see the sun again. This airmass change has brought a noticeable difference in humidity with fcst dewpoints into the 50s this afternoon. High temps in the mid 70s for most. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... As of 115 AM Thursday... Key Messages: - Gusty NE winds continue - Coastal impacts continue (see coastal flood section) Dry weather continues tonight, with the NE winds continuing to gradually lessen. This in turn gradually lessens our coastal flooding concerns tonight. See Coastal Flooding section for more information. Tonight partly cloudy skies are expected with lows in the 50s once again. Wind should remain elevated enough to preclude any fog concerns. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 AM Thursday...Sfc high pressure will be centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast while upper ridging builds across the Eastern CONUS into early next week. NE winds continue Friday into Saturday, then veer to Ely as the sfc high migrates off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Generally dry weather is expected for most area although a coastal trough offshore may produce a few showers across the coastal waters. Some guidance continues to show some of these showers working their way toward the coast. Temps will be a few degrees below normal through the week with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Temps warm to near normal over the weekend and early next week with highs around 80/lower 80s. By the middle of next week, the upper ridge breaks down as a strong northern stream trough digs into the Northern Plains and Midwest with sfc high pressure migrating farther offshore and sfc cold front approaching from the NW bringing increasing chances of showers across the region. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 710 AM Thursday...Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through the period. A pinched pressure gradient between the high pressure building in from the north and offshore Imelda will bring wind gusts back up to 15-20 kt in the afternoon. Lower clouds at 4-5 kft will linger through the period, but chances of them dropping below 3 kft this morning remain low (<20%). LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 130 AM Thursday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the long term with high pressure building in from the northeast. NE to E will be less than 15 kt through the period. Cannot rule out patchy late night fog toward the end of the week when winds will be weaker and low levels decouple overnight. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 710 AM Thursday... Key Messages: - Treacherous marine conditions through the period Latest obs show NE winds 15-25 kt gusting 25-34 kt and seas 9-14 ft at 11-13 seconds. With the pressure gradient tight between high pressure building from the north and offshore Hurricane Imelda and the remnants of Humberto, conditions will remain dangerous through tonight despite the gradually lessening winds. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all waters except the Pamlico/Pungo rivers today. As winds continue decreasing once we get into tonight, inland sounds/rivers SCA headlines should gradually drop. Coastal waters will remain in SCA due to lingering seas however. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 1 AM Thursday... Key Message - Gradually improving marine conditions through the long term but elevated seas will keep Small Craft Advisories across the coastal waters into early next week. High pressure building in from the north will bring NE winds around 10-20 kt on Friday. The high migrates offshore over the weekend with winds becoming easterly around 15 kt or less. Seas around 6-12 ft on Friday will slowly subside through the long term, however seas as high as 6-7 ft expected to keep SCA conditions across the coastal waters through Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 130 AM Thursday...Long period swell and strong NE winds are causing minor to moderate coastal flooding along the OBX and this will continue through Friday. Strong NE winds will lead to minor coastal flooding for soundside areas adj to the southern Pamlico Sound, Neuse/Bay/Pamlico Rivers through tonight. CF Warnings and Advisories remain in effect as water levels will remain elevated. Oceanside...The forecast remains on track as long period swell from Humberto and Imelda continuing to impact the beaches late this week bringing dangerous rip currents, large breaking waves, ocean overwash, coastal flooding, and wave runup impacts. Most significant impacts continue to be across portions of the OBX near Hatteras Island and Ocracoke where 2 to 3 ft AGL of inundation is possible through Friday given weakened dune structures across the area. 1 to 2 ft of inundation is possible across oceanside Crystal Coast and NOBX. The strong NEerly winds due to the strong high pressure may exacerbate the issues brought on from the strong swell. High Surf Advisories remain north of Cape Lookout for rough surf and beach erosion. Soundside...Prolonged period of strong NE winds will lead to water level rises through tonight. 1-2 ft of inundation is expected along the southern Pamlico Sound, Neuse/Bay and Pamlico/Pungo rivers. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for NCZ080-094- 194. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 199. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-199- 203>205. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ196-204-205. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ196-203>205. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ203. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 230-231. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ152-154-156-158. && $$ |
| #1246903 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 612 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Now through Wednesday... An upper level trough organizes over the north-central and northeastern Gulf coast into the weekend. As Imelda and Humberto, located off the East coast, move off, a weak surface ridge over the Appalachians strengthens and builds south over the Southeast, creating a tight pressure gradient along the northern Gulf coast the rest of the week through the weekend. Most of the forecast area will be rain free as drier northerly air moves south over the Southeast on the west side of the surface ridge, the exception being along and south of the coast. A combination of better moisture levels, strong low level dynamics in the strong easterly flow, along with several easterly waves passing south of the Gulf coast, and added upper weakness from the upper trough comes together allowing for daily showers and thunderstorms to form. A building upper ridge over the East coast will shift the upper trough westward Sunday into the coming week. The surface ridge over the Appalachians rotates clockwise in response, allowing Gulf moisture to move further inland (guidance is advertising precipitable h20 values rising over 2" over most of the forecast area by Monday). Precipitation returns forecast area-wide Sunday on in response. High temperatures well above seasonal norms Thursday (mid to upper 80s) drop through the rest of the week into the weekend before bottoming out on Sunday (low to mid 80s), with its best chance of rain this forecast. High temperatures rebound early in the coming week as upper subsidence increases from the building East Coast upper ridge. Low temperatures remain above seasonal norms, with the coolest night being Thursday night, ranging from the upper 50s well north of Highway 84 to upper 60s along the coast. The increasing moisture levels, then increasing upper subsidence, will bring low temperatures ranging from the the mid 60s to near 70 north of I-10 t low 70s south to the coast. Increasing easterly flow along the northern Gulf coast will bring a High Risk of Rip Currents Thursday through the weekend. /16 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through tonight, with the exception of some isolated mainly afternoon convection near the coast. Light northeasterly winds become easterly around 10 knots today. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A surface ridge builds south over the Appalachians into the weekend, bringing moderate to strong easterly winds to near shore and open Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for Thursday through the weekend, with a possibility of being extended longer. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 86 64 83 66 85 69 82 69 / 20 10 10 0 20 40 70 40 Pensacola 85 68 83 69 85 72 82 73 / 20 10 10 10 30 40 70 40 Destin 86 68 84 70 84 72 83 72 / 10 0 10 10 30 40 70 40 Evergreen 87 60 84 62 86 67 84 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 50 30 Waynesboro 85 60 83 62 84 67 82 68 / 10 0 0 0 0 10 40 20 Camden 85 60 83 62 84 67 82 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 20 Crestview 87 62 83 64 84 69 82 69 / 10 0 0 0 20 20 60 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655-670- 675. && $$ |
| #1246902 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 710 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather continues today with near-seasonable temperatures as high pressure to our north brings decreasing northeast winds. Warming trend then begins on Friday, heralding a potential multi-day stretch of above normal high temperatures in the lower 80s for the weekend into early next week. Dry weather is expected to prevail through early next week, with our next chance for rainfall not anticipated until the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Key Messages: * Decreasing northeast breezes for eastern and southeast coastal New England, but with a mix of sun and clouds and highs lower 60s. * Mostly clear with light winds for interior Southern New England, with highs in the mid/upper 60s. Details: Governing weather pattern is little changed early this morning, with a 1032 mb high pressure area extending a surface ridge axis through New England into the Carolina Piedmont. This is associated with a cool and dry airmass, with precipitable water values per regional 00z RAOB analyses down to around 0.35". For most of interior Southern New England, as you head outside this morning it will certainly feel every bit like an typical early- autumn morning with temps down into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Stronger NE winds continue across eastern and southeast MA, adjacent portions of RI and particularly across the Cape and Islands where NE winds have been gusting to around 25-30 mph. This has led to temps running well into the 50s. While skies were clear in most locations, infrared satellite reveals an increasing field of cold air stratocumulus over the Gulf of Maine with the cooler air over the milder waters; this cloudiness was poised to advect southwestward into southeastern New England this morning. Despite the cooler and in some isolated locations frosty start in the interior, shaping up to be a really nice Thursday as plenty of sun should allow for temps to recover pretty well today. We`ll be able to mix down even drier air this afternoon and dewpoints around the low 30s seem achiveable in interior Southern New England, which will dry out soils as RHs drop to around 30-40 percent. While still breezy across southeast MA and the Cape and Islands this morning the trend will be for decreasing northeast winds, and we`ll see more of a mix of sun and stratocumulus clouds across RI, the South Coast and the Cape and Islands. Highs mainly in the 60s, with cooler lower-60s readings over the eastern coast of MA and into the mid to upper 60s for the CT Valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... 245 AM Update: Key Messages: * Clear and dry with light winds tonight, lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. * Warming trend starts Fri, with full sun and highs in the lower to mid 70s, but cooler upper 60s along the immediate South Coast and Cape and Islands. Modest southwest breezes. Details: Tonight: High pressure becomes centered south of Southern New England tonight, which will generate optimal radiational cooling with light winds and anticipated strong hourly temperature falls after sundown. High clouds are expected to stream in early in the evening, which will herald the arrival of much-warmer air over the upper Midwest/Gt Lakes region that moves in for late in the week/this weekend. Lows eventually bottom out to the upper 30s to mid 40s given modest warm advection. Friday: High pressure remains anchored south of Southern New England for Fri, which will bring an increased southerly flow but not particularly breezy with winds around 10 mph. Although will see some high clouds continue to stream in, looking at a much warmer Fri compared to the last few days as 925 mb temps warm to around +10- 12C. The southern coast will be a little cooler with highs in the upper 60s given the SW winds off the water, but highs elsewhere should reach into the lower to mid 70s when factoring in SW downsloping and the warm feedback from the dry soil conditions resulting in daytime temps overachieving by a few degrees of late. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Messages: * Above normal temperatures and dry weather this weekend into early next week. Possible multi-day stretch of low to mid 80s temps away from the coasts. Fire weather concerns possible too. * Next chance for rain around Wed or Wed night. Details: An anomalously strong mid to upper level ridge for early October will be building into Southern New England this weekend and into early next week. This will bring a period of above to well above normal temperatures and continued dry weather conditions. In fact we could be looking at a multi-day stretch of highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Although ensemble probabilistic temperature datasets show low (30% or less) probs of highs in the mid 80s this weekend, think values this high are a conceivable outcome given the continued warm advection and the dry soils providing a warm-feedback on temps. Bias- corrected temperature datasets probably will perform pretty well for this timeframe. While winds are light (seabreezes near the coasts), RHs are likely to be on the lower side and that could lead to elevated fire weather concerns on most days this weekend into early next week. Southwest winds are noticeably stronger on Tue, so that could be one day where fire weather concerns appear greatest. As we`ve been mentioning, this is a very dry pattern we`re stuck in. Our next chance for rain arrives with a cold front around Wed or Wed night, with latest ensembles slowing this front`s arrival again by another 12 hours or so. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12z TAF Update: Today: High confidence. Largely VFR, though low-end VFR/MVFR stratocumulus clouds over southeast airports should lift/scatter out by 18z. Decreasing NE winds through early this afternoon, with light E/SE winds towards late this afternoon. Tonight and Friday: High confidence. VFR. Light winds tonight, then becoming southerly 5-10 kt on Fri. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. NE winds 10-15 kt lighten by 15z, then begin a slow clockwise turn to ESE thru late afternoon, speeds under 10 kt. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night through Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Gale warnings have been downshifted to SCAs for nearshore and the ocean waters into Thurs or Thurs evening (outer waters). NE winds over the southeast waters remain around 25-30 kt this morning, but will becoming increasingly sub-SCA as we move into the afternoon. It will take longer for seas to subside below SCA criteria but expect that SCAs can be dropped by overnight tonight. Winds and seas are sub-SCA for Friday, with SW winds around 10-15 kt (locally around 20 kt over northeast waters) and seas 3-4 ft. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Saturday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ231>235-237-251. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ250-254>256. && $$ |
| #1246900 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:06 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 658 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong high pressure will extend across the region into the weekend, with rain chances increasing on Sunday into early next week. A cold front may approach the region in the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The center of a 1030 mb high will remain centered over the Northeast U.S. today and tonight. The sfc ridge will extend SW along the east facing slopes of the Appalachians. An H5 trough will ripple off the Southeast U.S., supporting an inverted sfc trough over the Gulf Stream. In fact, NHC highlights a disturbance within the trough between FL and the Bahamas with a 10% chance of formation over the next 48 hrs. This pattern will support dry and gusty northeast winds across the forecast area through the near term. High temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 70s across the SC Lowcountry to the low 80s across SE GA. Tonight, the sfc trough over the western Atlantic will shift slightly coastward this evening. Showers and thunderstorms over the nearshore waters may brush up against the coast, especially the GA coast. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 50s inland to the mid 60s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A weak upper-lvl high will linger across the Southeast CONUS, as inverted trough sits along the coastal Atlantic waters. These two features combined will continue to support an enhanced pressure gradient along the Eastern Seaboard and cause for breezy north- northeasterly winds to persist across the region (w/ winds highest near the coastline) into early next week. Surface high pressure will start to slide off the East Coast this weekend, and slowly allow moisture to return to region. Along with this, north-easterly winds will shift more easterly to southeasterly and provide a more moist onshore flow. This onshore flow will support increased chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend into early next week. However, given the relatively dry airmass in place with the inland wedge, the best rain chances will remain confined to the coastal counties and beaches. Consequently, WPC has highlighted a portion of SE SC and SE GA counties along the coast in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will gradually warm back up to near-normal values with highs reaching into the upper 70s to low 80s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper-lvl low tries to form over the northwest Gulf along a stationary front, and then gradually tries to move northward towards the region early next week. Shortwave energy around the weakening upper-lvl ridge + moist onshore flow will keep increased shower and thunderstorm chances through mid-week (esp. in the afternoon/evening hours). Hence, the southeast will remain in rather wet and active pattern and PWATs are expected to reach near 2 inches. Highest chances for precipitation remain along the Georgia coastline where some flooding of mainly low-lying and poor drainage areas could occur, esp. if rain falls during the already elevated high tides. Deterministic and ensemble models have been hinting at a cold front approaching the region by the middle of next week, and possibly extending rain chances. Seasonable temperatures will continue with highs reaching into the upper 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 12Z TAFs: VFR. Gusty NE winds are expected to start around daybreak Thursday. Winds should settle between 10 to 15 kts this evening by 1Z. Extended Aviation Forecast: Mostly VFR. Brief flight restrictions are possible with showers and thunderstorms that develop in the afternoon/evening hours this weekend into early next week. && .MARINE... Today and tonight: The marine zones will remain between a ridge across the western Carolinas and coast trough. Northeast winds will remain between 25 to 30 kts with gusts into the low 30s. Gusts may reach gale force across portions of the Atlantic waters, but coverage and duration appears limited. Gusts across the CHS Harbor should favor values around 25 kts today through this evening. Swell sourced from Imelda will remain across the marine zones through the near term. Seas should peak today between 7 to 11 ft. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all marine zones. Friday through Tuesday: Breezy north-northeasterly winds at 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt will likely hold through the weekend as the region as the inland wedge strengthens. Additionally, swell from Imelda with long-period swell from Humberto will continue to pump into the local waters through the weekend causing seas to range from 6 to 8 ft in the nearshore waters, and 8 to 10 ft in the outer Georgia waters. The swell should begin to taper back some on Sunday night. Therefore, Small Craft Advisories (SCAs) remain for all marine zones through early next week due the combination of high winds and seas. Rip Currents/High Surf: A High Risk of rip currents is expected Thursday (today) and Friday at all beaches due to large, long-period swells and strong winds. In addition, large breaking waves of 5+ feet are expected through much of the week and a High Surf Advisory remains in effect until Saturday morning. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As astronomical tides increase this week, the risk for minor coastal flooding will increase for Charleston and Coastal Colleton Counties during the afternoon high tide cycles. A Coastal Flood Advisory could eventually be needed for this afternoon. Heading into this weekend and early next week, astronomical tides will increase due to the upcoming Full Moon (Oct 7) and Perigee (Oct 8). This in combination with the anticipation of continued northeasterly flow will cause the possibility of coastal flooding to become more likely along the entire coastline, including both Downtown Charleston and Fort Pulaski. Saltwater inundation could then occur during both the morning and evening high tide cycles during this time. Although there is considerable uncertainty this far out, persistent favorable winds have the potential to produce up to major coastal flooding. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ117-119-139- 141. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for GAZ117-119-139- 141. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ048>051. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for SCZ048>051. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ330. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ350-352-354. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1246899 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:03 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 701 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Wet weather pattern next several days with increased winds/ moisture off the Atlantic supporting locally heavy rainfall especially along the coast. Localized flooding will be a concern through this weekend. - Prolonged, dangerous beach and marine conditions will continue into the weekend with life-threatening rip currents, high surf with breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet, and minor to moderate beach erosion especially near times of high tide. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Today-Fri...High pressure wedging down the eastern seaboard today will increase the NE-E wind flow and produce a breezy/gusty day. This onshore flow will support a moistening of the atmos and result in widespread showers and embedded storms. There is support aloft in the form of a weak nearly stationary trough as well as a developing coastal (inverted) low level trough. With MUCAPE near 1000 J/Kg and PWATs 1.8"-2.0", ingredients are coming together to produce a risk of excessive rainfall (with efficient rain rates) for portions of the central FL Atlc coast. Coastal convergence as well as back-building storms forming bands of heavy rain will affect portions of the Space and Treasure coasts. Given the strength of the onshore flow, some of these showers will push well inland and affect Orlando metro. Rainfall amounts of 1-3" will occur with locally 4"+ and the highest amounts should occur near the coast. One or more Flood Advisories look likely over this period. The tightening pressure gradient around the high pressure to the north will produce northeast to east winds 15-25mph with higher gusts esp along the coast. There will not be significant diurnal range in temps esp along the coast due to very mild low temps holding in the mid to upper 70s and max temps only in the low to mid 80s. A little larger diurnal range will occur over the interior. Sat-Wed...Some model guidance show a weak low developing near the NW Bahamas Fri night and track NW across south FL Sat. NHC has started outlooking this area for low prob (10%) for tropical development. If this occurs, even a weak (non tropical) low would enhance low level convergence and heavy rain threat further across east central FL. If more heavy rain is anticipated this weekend, we may need a Flood Watch. By Sunday, the deepest moisture is forecast to lift north and the pressure gradient eases though remaining onshore. Rain chances should gradually decrease next week though remaining at least scattered (50 percent). Would not be surprised if we are able to lower PoPs further by mid week. Temps look close to seasonable in the mid to upper 80s. && .MARINE... Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Tight NE to E pressure gradient will develop over the local Atlc waters today around high pressure wedging down the eastern seaboard. Thus, hazardous to dangerous boating conditions are forecast to continue across the local Atlantic waters over the next several days. Wind speeds 15-25 knots with combined seas (wind wave and swell) of 7-12 feet. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will continue through Sat for all the waters. There should be some relaxation of the pressure gradient Sun-Mon as winds turn E-SE but seas will be slow to subside so an extension of the SCA appears likely to include Sunday, at least for the offshore waters. Meanwhile, moisture increases locally which will promote a high coverage of showers and isolated storms containing heavy rain and cloud to water lightning. Brief waterspouts will also be possible especially where cell mergers occur or spin-ups driven by coastal convergence. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 701 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VCSH at all terminals to start the 12Z TAF as light showers have already spread across east central Florida. Expecting high coverage through the day, especially from the greater Orlando terminals southward. TEMPOs are included from ISM/MCO/TIX southward, attempting to narrow down the most reasonable timing of SHRA impacts. However, AMDs will likely be needed as the day evolves. VCSH lingers along the coast overnight with persistent onshore moving showers. East-northeast winds become breezy today, gusting 20-25 kts. Winds remain elevated along the coast overnight from MLB southward. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 83 73 83 73 / 60 50 70 60 MCO 85 73 85 73 / 70 20 60 50 MLB 84 75 83 75 / 70 50 70 70 VRB 85 74 84 75 / 80 60 70 70 LEE 85 72 84 72 / 60 10 50 30 SFB 85 73 84 73 / 70 20 60 50 ORL 84 73 84 73 / 60 20 60 50 FPR 85 73 83 74 / 80 60 70 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ550-552-555- 570-572-575. && $$ |
| #1246898 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:51 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 648 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in from mid to late week with cooler and drier weather returning. A warm-up is expected heading into the weekend, with dry conditions continuing through next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Thursday... Key Message: - Below average temperatures and pleasant conditions today. - Gust winds expected near the coast today, followed by a decrease in winds overnight. Hurricane Imelda continues to moves further away from the U.S. this morning, and the gradient between the expansive high centered across eastern Canada has started to relax. Wind gusts along the coast still range from 20 to 25 mph, while inland areas have decoupled and are observing light and variable winds. The combination of light winds and clear skies have allowed for inland areas to radiate, bringing temperatures into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Along the coast, temperatures remain in the lower to mid 60s. The high will slide southeastwards today and move across the Northeast. Imelda will track further into the North Atlantic, resulting in a continued decrease in winds. Gusts of 20 to 25 mph will linger along the coast through the early evening, but a sharp decrease in winds is expected by tonight. As we saw yesterday, another scattered low-level cloud deck will likely develop across the forecast area. With the cooler, drier airmass expected to remain in place today, no rain is in the forecast and temperatures are expected to remain slightly below normal with highs reach the upper 60s to lower 70s. Skies will start to clear this evening, so another round of radiational cooling is likely in inland areas tonight. Lows are forecast to drop into the mid-upper 40s inland, while areas near the coast will see temperatures in the mid 50s to around 60F. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Warming temperatures expected this weekend, with rain-free conditions continuing. Cooler temperatures will continue through Friday as the high continues to pump in a modified continental airmass across the region. Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s on Friday. The high to our north will slowly slide southwards Friday and reach the Mid- Atlantic coast by the afternoon. Light winds are expected at this time as the gradient will have weakened considerably with the high overhead. High pressure will remain dominant through the weekend, but temperatures will start to moderate on Saturday as an amplified mid-upper level ridge slides over the East Coast. Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s on Saturday, increasing further into the upper 70s on Sunday. Overnight temperatures Saturday will drop to 50- 55F inland and 55-60F along the coast. By Sunday, overnight temperatures will have moderate into the mid to upper 50s inland to lower to mid 60s near the coast. Although the air mass will become modified, dry conditions are anticipated as high pressure remains in place across the region. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Continued warmer temperatures to start the week, with a chance for rain coming late Tuesday as a possible front moves through the area. The synoptic pattern on Monday will remain the similar to the weekend with ridging aloft and high pressure dominating at the surface, but an upper-level trough will be approaching the region from the Great Lakes area. This will shove the high off the Mid- Atlantic coast, which will result in winds shifting to a more southerly direction. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be above normal for this time of year, likely reaching near 80F into the lower 80s. The next best shot at rain will be late Tuesday through Wednesday as a surface front associated with the aforementioned upper trough possibly moves across the region, otherwise, dry conditions will prevail. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 648 AM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions prevail at all terminals this morning. Mostly clear skies will continue, with potentially a SCT cloud deck moving across ECG/PHF/ORF over the next few hours. Later this morning, SCT CIGs will likely expand to the remainder of the terminals, with intermittent MVFR CIGs possible. Confidence is very low in any lowered MVFR CIGs, so have left them out of the TAFs for now. Winds will gradually decrease today, with gusts up to 15-25 kts (mainly at the coastal terminals) through the afternoon before gusts drop off in the evening. Primarily VFR conditions are anticipated through Friday with the potential for some fog Friday night into Sat morning across a portion of the area (best chance across the Piedmont). && .MARINE... As of 250 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - SCAs in effect for all coastal waters due to elevated NE winds and seas of 5-10ft. - SCAs for the lower Ches Bay, lower James River, and the Currituck Sound look to come down late today into tonight. - Gradually improving conditions through the early weekend, then pleasant conditions expected into early next week. Latest weather analysis reveals 1032+mb sfc high pressure building south of QC/New England into the Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas early this morning. Tropical Cyclone Imelda was visible on early morning IR/WV satellite near Bermuda, and will move NE away from the island through today. Locally E-NE winds remain elevated, but have diminished a bit over the past few hours, as the gradient slowly slackens between the departing Imelda and high pressure building over the waters. Seas remain elevated in the 8-12 ft range, comprised of mainly E 10-12 second swell. Waves are 1-2 ft on the upper bay, rivers and sound, with 2-6 ft in the lower bay, highest at the mouth of the bay. Small Craft Advisories have been discontinued north of New Point Comfort, but continue for the lower Ches Bay, Atlantic coastal waters, Currituck Sound, and the lower James River. The coastal waters will remain in SCA into the upcoming weekend, mainly for seas. The Currituck Sound, lower James River and adjacent bay zone should drop below SCA thresholds by late afternoon/early evening. Remaining breezy this morning, with winds gradually diminishing through the day, as the pressure gradient slowly slackens with high pressure building into the region. NE winds 10-15 kt north, 15-20 kt southern waters, with gusts to 25-30 kt this morning slowly diminishing this afternoon. That trend continues tonight and Friday, as high pressure builds overhead. Winds should be down to 10-15kt tonight, then 5-10kt by Friday evening. Seas will be held up mainly due to the lingering swell from the offshore tropical systems and onshore flow. Expecting seas still in the 7-10ft range over the Atlantic coast tonight into Friday, subsiding to 5-8ft by Friday morning. SCA should finally come down Saturday afternoon and evening, from south to north. More benign boating conditions expected by late in the weekend into early next week with high pressure remains in place just offshore. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 500 AM EDT Thursday... Tidal anomalies have risen to 2-2.25 feet above astronomical tides this morning, with widespread minor flooding. Have added a Coastal Flood Warning for the Tidal Potomac River, as tidal anomalies continue to slowly climb this morning. Even as winds diminish, water levels are expected to be slightly lower due to the astronomically lower tide cycle this morning, but in light of a strong flood tide this morning that will keep anomalies remaining steady, expect at least another 1-2 rounds of minor coastal flooding impacts along the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore, the remaining tidal rivers of eastern VA, and southside Hampton Roads. Advisories have been extended until Thursday night for most of these areas except Accomack/Northampton Counties, which will see mainly nuisance/sub-minor threshold type flooding. Mainly nuisance flooding is also expected on the Atlantic coast with subsequent high tides, so not anticipating the need for additional advisories here (although further statements are possible). Will need to monitor the tidal Potomac. Given the high anomalies, could potentially need another round of Coastal Flood Warnings for the evening tide cycle. At the very least, Advisory level water levels are anticipated through the Fri morning tide cycle. High Surf Advisories slowly drop off later today and tonight, as seas slowly subside, but high rip risk persists into the upcoming weekend. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for MDZ021>023. High Surf Advisory until noon EDT today for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory until noon EDT today for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Warning until noon EDT today for VAZ075-077. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for VAZ076-078- 522. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ082- 084>086-089-090-093-523. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ083- 518-520. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095>098-524-525. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632- 638. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658. && $$ |
| #1246897 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 642 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry conditions are slated as strong Canadian high pressure ridges in from the north thru the upcoming weekend into next week. Isolated showers are possible, mainly moving onshore near the coast late Fri and again this weekend. Small craft advisory conditions will persist across the local waters for the remainder of the work week and likely into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Surface high pressure will continue to ridge southward into the Carolinas resulting in near normal temperatures. The column is dry above H85, with some rounds of low-level moisture supported by the NE then Ely flow. Overall, not enough moisture to work with to support any PoPs over land areas. The center of high pressure will push southward toward southern New England by tonight, with the ridge axis persisting across the Carolinas. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Upper ridge axis to become oriented from SE (offshore and east of the Outer Banks) to NW (eastern Great Lakes), remaining just north and east of the area this period. At the sfc, ridging will extend across the Carolinas from the high`s center over the NE States, that will drop south to just off the coast from the Mid-Atlantic states. by the end of this period. A tightened sfc pg will remain across the FA, further tightening south of the FA. Looking at NE winds thru Sat becoming E Sat night, and extending up to 5H. Periodic and subtle inverted sfc trofs to move off the Atlantic and onshore. The deeper moisture (sfc to 700mb) will reside mainly south of the FA but enough moisture could result in isolated showers and a few hundredths of an inch, mainly where activity moves onshore across the SC Coast late Fri ad possibly again late Sat, when winds become more easterly. Slow warming trend this period, near normal temps Fri, to slightly above Sat with maxes in the low 80s(above normal). More clouds slated for Sat than Fri (diurnally driven). With plenty of dry air above 850mb, not much vertical extent to these clouds expected, thus will only have low topped showers as the threat. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper ridging pattern to persist into early next week, with sfc ridging continuing across the Carolinas even as the center of the sfc high pushes off the Mid-Atlantic Coast and further offshore. This will continue the sfc ENE-ESE flow across the FA. In fact, this easterly flow will extend up to atleast the 500mb and possibly the 400mb level. Again, subtle embedded inverted sfc trofs or weak low level short waves to move along the southern periphery of the ridging and onshore and inland. Enough moisture will be avbl for isolated showers each aftn/evening with the days heating and weak instability aiding as they track further inland. By the Tue/Wed time-line, the upper ridging progged to break down allowing atleast the approach and possibly next CFP. Confidence remains low for this scenario playing out but did highlight at most 20-30 Pops thruout the FA for this possibility. Temps this period will remain above normal, with daytime highs in the 80s and nighttime lows in the 60s to around 70 along the immediate coast due to onshore flow across SSTs in the 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail today, with some moisture in the low levels leading to SCT clouds, especially along the coast. VFR conditions will continue through tonight. Mixing could lead to some gusts to 20-25 kts during the day, especially at KILM, KCRE, and KMYR during the 14-21z time frame. Extended Outlook...VFR conditions are expected to prevail. May have some patchy fog over the weekend with rain chances returning at the coast. && .MARINE... Through tonight...High pressure ridging southward into the Carolinas and lingering swells from Imelda will maintain Small Craft Advisory conditions through tonight. The center of the high will slowly migrate southward but the pressure gradient will only weaken slightly by late tonight. Spectral buoy data early this morning shows multiple wave components, complicated by the dominant NEly 6-8 sec waves and the masked 10-11 sec Ely swells from Imelda. Rough seas will persist today into tonight given little change to the NEly fetch generated waves with dampening effects from the old Ely swells. Friday through Monday...SCA conditions ongoing due to the tightened sfc pg from the strong high ridging across the Carolinas. The gradient progged tighter over SC Waters when compared to the NC waters producing NE winds 15 to 25 kt becoming more E to ESE Sat night thru Mon. Overall, the hier speeds across the SC waters especially Sun/Mon. Degrading back swell from the departed tropical systems will be noticeable Fri but overall the NE-E wind driven pseudo/fresh swell at 6 to 8 second periods will become the dominate wave and top the power index. Periodically may observe scattered showers move into the local waters from offshore and possibly making it top the coast and onshore. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for east-facing beaches Thursday. Imelda and remnants of Humberto swell will intertwine along with the addition of large short period wind waves resulting from strong NE winds as synoptic high pressure ridges across the area from the north. The strong NE wind driven waves will continue through the end of the work week while the 2 tropical cyclone distinctive swell trains slowly subside. The end result will be the production of high surf (breaking wave heights around to 6 ft) through Thursday for beaches from Cape Fear northward. Minor coastal flooding during this evening`s high tide cycle remains likely for the NC Coast (6.00 ft MLLW threshold) but should remain just below thresholds for the SC Coast (7.00 ft MLLW threshold). Will let the day shift take another look before expanding the advisory to any of the beaches. The lower Cape Fear River, from Wilmington southward, will also observe minor coastal flooding as levels surpass the 5.50 ft MLLW threshold this evening. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108. High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1246896 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:21 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 612 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 206 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 The "backdoor" frontal passage has stalled over the NE Gulf. A tightening pressure gradient will increase winds over land today, making it a little breezy with gusts up to 30 mph. Dew points will be noticeably lower with values falling into the low to mid 50s for the Tri-State region, except the SE FL Big Bend. Temperatures today will remain warm with highs in the low to mid 80s, with pockets of upper 80s to around 90 degrees along the immediate coast this afternoon. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid-60s. There is an isolated chance for spotty showers along the coast this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 206 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 The tight pressure gradient generating the gusty winds up to 25 mph will continue to hold in place through the weekend. During the day on Saturday, an inverted trough appears to move across the NE Gulf, allowing moisture advection with increasing dew points. PWATs increasing to be above 2 inches, and enough forcing to generate scattered PoPs of 50%-70% for Sunday and Monday. Upper level ridging begins to build back in by Tuesday, lowering our rain chances through the rest of the period. Afternoon high temperatures during the period will generally be in the mid-80s. Overnight low temperatures will be in upper 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VFR through the period, with one exception. MVFR cigs may develop into southeast Georgia and move into VLD after 07Z. Otherwise, northeast winds will become gusty beginning mid morning through the day with speeds 18-22 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 206 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Winds and seas are on the rise. A cold front stalling over the waters will cause a tightening pressure gradient that will have northeasterly winds at Advisory level, 20-25 kts, with gusts around 30 kts through the weekend. Seas are expected to rise to 5-8 feet with occasional 9-foot waves in our western offshore waters. Showers and thunderstorms are likely, mainly in our offshore waters, through the weekend. Winds and seas will begin to relax at the start of the work week as the center of the surface high to our north shifts to the east. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 206 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Between high pressure to our north and a stalled cold front to our south, a tightening pressure gradient will increase our winds over land for the next few days. Transport winds will be easterly/northeasterly at around 15-25 mph through the weekend. Drier air will also be filtering into the Tri-State region with dew points in the 50s for our Georgia and Alabama districts. MinRH will generally range from the low 30s% in AL and GA, with 40s% in Florida today, with gradually increasing values through the rest of the week into the weekend. Dispersions will be fair to moderate through the period with pockets of high dispersions throughout for the next few days. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 206 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Rainfall amounts this weekend are expected to range from about a half-inch up to about an inch. Although any rain is beneficial, with local rivers flowing below normal, this will not be enough to cause any hydro concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 85 67 84 68 / 10 0 10 0 Panama City 87 68 85 69 / 20 0 10 10 Dothan 83 63 82 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 82 64 83 66 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 84 67 83 67 / 0 0 10 0 Cross City 87 68 86 69 / 20 10 40 10 Apalachicola 84 70 83 71 / 30 10 30 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Sunday for GMZ730- 751-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1246895 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:06 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 501 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in from mid to late week with cooler and drier weather returning. A warm-up is expected heading into the weekend, with dry conditions continuing through next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Thursday... Key Message: - Below average temperatures and pleasant conditions today. - Gust winds expected near the coast today, followed by a decrease in winds overnight. Imelda continues to moves further away from the U.S. this morning, and the gradient between the expansive high centered across eastern Canada has started to relax. Wind gusts along the coast still range from 20 to 25 mph, while inland areas have decoupled and are observing light and variable winds. The combination of light winds and clear skies have allowed for inland areas to radiate, bringing temperatures into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Along the coast, temperatures remain in the lower to mid 60s. The high will slide southeastwards today and move across the Northeast. Imelda will track further into the North Atlantic, resulting in a continued decrease in winds. Gusts of 20 to 25 mph will linger along the coast through the early evening, but a sharp decrease in winds is expected by tonight. As we saw yesterday, another scattered low-level cloud deck will likely develop across the forecast area. With the cooler, drier airmass expected to remain in place today, no rain is in the forecast and temperatures are expected to remain slightly below normal with highs reach the upper 60s to lower 70s. Skies will start to clear this evening, so another round of radiational cooling is likely in inland areas tonight. Lows are forecast to drop into the mid-upper 40s inland, while areas near the coast will see temperatures in the mid 50s to around 60F. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Warming temperatures expected this weekend, with rain-free conditions continuing. Cooler temperatures will continue through Friday as the high continues to pump in a modified continental airmass across the region. Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s on Friday. The high to our north will slowly slide southwards Friday and reach the Mid- Atlantic coast by the afternoon. Light winds are expected at this time as the gradient will have weakened considerably with the high overhead. High pressure will remain dominant through the weekend, but temperatures will start to moderate on Saturday as an amplified mid-upper level ridge slides over the East Coast. Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s on Saturday, increasing further into the upper 70s on Sunday. Overnight temperatures Saturday will drop to 50- 55F inland and 55-60F along the coast. By Sunday, overnight temperatures will have moderate into the mid to upper 50s inland to lower to mid 60s near the coast. Although the air mass will become modified, dry conditions are anticipated as high pressure remains in place across the region. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Continued warmer temperatures to start the week, with a chance for rain coming late Tuesday as a possible front moves through the area. The synoptic pattern on Monday will remain the similar to the weekend with ridging aloft and high pressure dominating at the surface, but an upper-level trough will be approaching the region from the Great Lakes area. This will shove the high off the Mid- Atlantic coast, which will result in winds shifting to a more southerly direction. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be above normal for this time of year, likely reaching near 80F into the lower 80s. The next best shot at rain will be late Tuesday through Wednesday as a surface front associated with the aforementioned upper trough possibly moves across the region, otherwise, dry conditions will prevail. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 126 AM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions prevail at all terminals early this morning. Mostly clear skies will continue, with potentially a SCT cloud deck moving across ECG/PHF/ORF over the next few hours. Later this morning, SCT CIGs will likely expand to the remainder of the terminals, with intermittent MVFR CIGs possible. Confidence is low in any lowered MVFR CIGs, so have left them out of the TAFs for now. Winds will gradually decrease today, with gusts up to 15-25 kts (mainly at the coastal terminals) through the afternoon before gusts drop off in the evening. Primarily VFR conditions are anticipated through Friday with the potential for some fog Friday night into Sat morning across a portion of the area (best chance across the Piedmont). && .MARINE... As of 250 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - SCAs in effect for all coastal waters due to elevated NE winds and seas of 5-10ft. - SCAs for the lower Ches Bay, lower James River, and the Currituck Sound look to come down late today into tonight. - Gradually improving conditions through the early weekend, then pleasant conditions expected into early next week. Latest weather analysis reveals 1032+mb sfc high pressure building south of QC/New England into the Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas early this morning. Tropical Cyclone Imelda was visible on early morning IR/WV satellite near Bermuda, and will move NE away from the island through today. Locally E-NE winds remain elevated, but have diminished a bit over the past few hours, as the gradient slowly slackens between the departing Imelda and high pressure building over the waters. Seas remain elevated in the 8-12 ft range, comprised of mainly E 10-12 second swell. Waves are 1-2 ft on the upper bay, rivers and sound, with 2-6 ft in the lower bay, highest at the mouth of the bay. Small Craft Advisories have been discontinued north of New Point Comfort, but continue for the lower Ches Bay, Atlantic coastal waters, Currituck Sound, and the lower James River. The coastal waters will remain in SCA into the upcoming weekend, mainly for seas. The Currituck Sound, lower James River and adjacent bay zone should drop below SCA thresholds by late afternoon/early evening. Remaining breezy this morning, with winds gradually diminishing through the day, as the pressure gradient slowly slackens with high pressure building into the region. NE winds 10-15 kt north, 15-20 kt southern waters, with gusts to 25-30 kt this morning slowly diminishing this afternoon. That trend continues tonight and Friday, as high pressure builds overhead. Winds should be down to 10-15kt tonight, then 5-10kt by Friday evening. Seas will be held up mainly due to the lingering swell from the offshore tropical systems and onshore flow. Expecting seas still in the 7-10ft range over the Atlantic coast tonight into Friday, subsiding to 5-8ft by Friday morning. SCA should finally come down Saturday afternoon and evening, from south to north. More benign boating conditions expected by late in the weekend into early next week with high pressure remains in place just offshore. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 500 AM EDT Thursday... Tidal anomalies have risen to 2-2.25 feet above astronomical tides this morning, with widespread minor flooding. Have added a Coastal Flood Warning for the Tidal Potomac River, as tidal anomalies continue to slowly climb this morning. Even as winds diminish, water levels are expected to be slightly lower due to the astronomically lower tide cycle this morning, but in light of a strong flood tide this morning that will keep anomalies remaining steady, expect at least another 1-2 rounds of minor coastal flooding impacts along the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore, the remaining tidal rivers of eastern VA, and southside Hampton Roads. Advisories have been extended until Thursday night for most of these areas except Accomack/Northampton Counties, which will see mainly nuisance/sub-minor threshold type flooding. Mainly nuisance flooding is also expected on the Atlantic coast with subsequent high tides, so not anticipating the need for additional advisories here (although further statements are possible). Will need to monitor the tidal Potomac. Given the high anomalies, could potentially need another round of Coastal Flood Warnings for the evening tide cycle. At the very least, Advisory level water levels are anticipated through the Fri morning tide cycle. High Surf Advisories slowly drop off later today and tonight, as seas slowly subside, but high rip risk persists into the upcoming weekend. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for MDZ021>023. High Surf Advisory until noon EDT today for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory until noon EDT today for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Warning until noon EDT today for VAZ075-077. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for VAZ076-078- 522. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ082- 084>086-089-090-093-523. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ083- 518-520. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095>098-524-525. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632- 638. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658. && $$ |
| #1246892 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 452 AM AST Thu Oct 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warmer conditions will continue today, particularly across the urban and coastal areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 10 AM through 5 PM AST. Stay hydrated and avoid prolonged sun exposure. * Showers and thunderstorms along interior and northern portions of Puerto Rico will increase flooding and lightning risk this afternoon. * Once again, occasional passing showers are expected across the U.S. Virgin Islands throughout the day. * A long-period swell will arriving late tonight will deteriorate marine and coastal conditions through early next week. Small Craft Advisories are in effect from midnight tonight for the Atlantic offshore waters and from noon Friday for the Atlantic coastal waters and the Mona Passage. && .SHORT TERM... Today through Saturday... Calm weather conditions prevailed overnight with little to no rain for the US Virgin Islands and windward locations in PR. Winds were calm to light and variable, influenced by a land breeze. In general, skies were mostly clear with some clouds moving through the Virgin Islands. Nighttime cooling allowed the low temperatures to drop from the mid- to upper 70s in coastal areas to the mid- to upper 60s across the mountains. A col area near the region will continue to promote light southeasterly winds today and tomorrow. Moisture content is expected to remain near or below normal through Friday. However, the available moisture, combined with above-normal expected maximum temperatures, will result in warm to hot heat indices during the peak of daily heating this afternoon. Thus, a Heat Advisory is once again in effect for coastal and urban locations in the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Excessive heating, enhanced by local effects and variations in sea breezes, will result in strong thunderstorms across the interior and northern regions of PR. This activity is expected to result in cloud-to-ground lightning, heavy rain, and strong winds. Due to weak steering winds, expect some thunderstorms to remain almost stationary, leading to a heightened risk of flooding in poorly drained areas. Be prepared. These storms will likely clear by evening, resulting in calm weather. A similar weather pattern is expected to repeat on Friday. A long-period north-northwesterly swell will impact the Atlantic coastline, producing dangerous breaking waves and life-threatening rip currents starting late Thursday night or early Friday morning. It`s essential to acknowledge the significant threat this poses to beachgoers who go to the north-facing beaches in Puerto Rico and the northern US Virgin Islands. Avoid becoming just another statistic. For Saturday, a weak tropical wave moving across the Caribbean Sea and a frontal boundary lingering north of the islands over the Atlantic Ocean will increase the moisture content somewhat, as well as the potential for more frequent passing showers followed by isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon. && .LONG TERM... Sunday through Thursday... No major changes were introduced to the long-term forecast. A transition to an unstable and wetter pattern is still anticipated by the beginning of the workweek, with gradual improvement by Wednesday. Global models continue to suggest the approach of an upper-level trough into the CWA by Sunday night. From the deterministic guidance of the GFS and ECMWF, the tendency towards wetter conditions is increasing, as Precipitable Water (PWAT) values may range between 2.0 and 2.2 inches, above the climatological normal. The latest model solutions also suggest a rise in relative humidity content in the low and mid levels as well (> 60 %, up to 80 - 90%) during Monday and Tuesday. In terms of instability, the presence of this upper feature should bring colder than normal 500 mb temperatures (down to -8 degrees Celsius), favorable for the development of strong thunderstorms. The latest Galvez-Davison Index (GDI) tool keeps suggesting the potential of isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the CWA, higher on Monday and Tuesday. As mentioned in the previous discussion, winds will become lighter late Monday night and Tuesday, meaning that theres a high chance of stationary showers and thunderstorms. Given the expected conditions, the potential of flooding and lightning will increase, particularly over mountain ranges and eastern Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Conditions should gradually improve by Wednesday, as a drier air mass may filter into the region. Although PWAT may drop to seasonal values (1.5 - 1.7 inches), the available moisture combined with diurnal heating and local effects could trigger convection activity in the afternoon, affecting mainly portions of interior and western Puerto Rico, including the San Juan Metropolitan Area. Nevertheless, the likeliest scenario could be mostly ponding of water over roadways, urban, and poorly drained areas. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa in the next few days, with a 20% chance of cyclonic formation in the next 7 days. The latest model solutions suggest an increase in moisture content due to this tropical wave approaching the Caribbean Basin by late Thursday night, but the variability between them is high, introducing uncertainty to the forecast. Hence, well keep monitoring the development of this system. && .AVIATION... (TAFs 06z) VFR conditions will prevail today for all TAFs. However, a few TSRA will develop during the afternoon, between 02/15-22z, which could impact JSJ or JBQ, creating brief MVFR conditions if those TSRA move over them. Winds will prevail mainly from the S-SE at 5-10 kt, with sea breeze variations after 02/13z, and gusty winds near TSRA. Winds will turn calm to light and VRB aft 02/23z. && .MARINE... A col near the region will promote a light to gentle southerly wind flow across the islands through Friday. A long-period north to northwesterly swell will begin to spread across the local Atlantic waters late tonight and into Friday, deteriorating marine and coastal conditions through early next week. Additionally, a weak tropical wave is expected to move over the Lesser Antilles by Friday, moving near the islands by Saturday. At the same time, a frontal boundary will remain positioned to the north over the Atlantic. && .BEACH FORECAST... No major changes were introduced to the beach forecast. As anticipated, the rip current risk increased to moderate mainly for the northern beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra. As mentioned in previous discussions, a long-period swell will arrive late tonight, bringing hazardous beach conditions through at least early next week. Life-threatening rip currents are expected along the north- facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands, spreading over west-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands during the weekend. Additionally, the potential of High Surf conditions is increasing due to high chance of breaking waves above 10 feet. Therefore, citizens and visitors are encouraged to continue monitoring the beach forecast and heed the advice of the flag warning system. Regarding the weather forecast, beachgoers should stay weather alert due to the potential of showers and thunderstorms near and/or approaching the beach zone, particularly over the western and northeastern coastal areas of Puerto Rico. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001>005-007-008-010>013. VI...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ001-002. AM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM AST Monday for AMZ711. Small Craft Advisory from noon Friday to 4 AM AST Monday for AMZ712-716-741-742. && $$ |
| #1246890 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:36 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 331 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Wet weather pattern next several days with increased winds/ moisture off the Atlantic supporting locally heavy rainfall especially along the coast. Localized flooding will be a concern through this weekend. - Prolonged, dangerous beach and marine conditions will continue into the weekend with life-threatening rip currents, high surf with breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet, and minor to moderate beach erosion especially near times of high tide. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Today-Fri...High pressure wedging down the eastern seaboard today will increase the NE-E wind flow and produce a breezy/gusty day. This onshore flow will support a moistening of the atmos and result in widespread showers and embedded storms. There is support aloft in the form of a weak nearly stationary trough as well as a developing coastal (inverted) low level trough. With MUCAPE near 1000 J/Kg and PWATs 1.8"-2.0", ingredients are coming together to produce a risk of excessive rainfall (with efficient rain rates) for portions of the central FL Atlc coast. Coastal convergence as well as back-building storms forming bands of heavy rain will affect portions of the Space and Treasure coasts. Given the strength of the onshore flow, some of these showers will push well inland and affect Orlando metro. Rainfall amounts of 1-3" will occur with locally 4"+ and the highest amounts should occur near the coast. One or more Flood Advisories look likely over this period. The tightening pressure gradient around the high pressure to the north will produce northeast to east winds 15-25mph with higher gusts esp along the coast. There will not be significant diurnal range in temps esp along the coast due to very mild low temps holding in the mid to upper 70s and max temps only in the low to mid 80s. A little larger diurnal range will occur over the interior. Sat-Wed...Some model guidance show a weak low developing near the NW Bahamas Fri night and track NW across south FL Sat. NHC has started outlooking this area for low prob (10%) for tropical development. If this occurs, even a weak (non tropical) low would enhance low level convergence and heavy rain threat further across east central FL. If more heavy rain is anticipated this weekend, we may need a Flood Watch. By Sunday, the deepest moisture is forecast to lift north and the pressure gradient eases though remaining onshore. Rain chances should gradually decrease next week though remaining at least scattered (50 percent). Would not be surprised if we are able to lower PoPs further by mid week. Temps look close to seasonable in the mid to upper 80s. && .MARINE... Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Tight NE to E pressure gradient will develop over the local Atlc waters today around high pressure wedging down the eastern seaboard. Thus, hazardous to dangerous boating conditions are forecast to continue across the local Atlantic waters over the next several days. Wind speeds 15-25 knots with combined seas (wind wave and swell) of 7-12 feet. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will continue through Sat for all the waters. There should be some relaxation of the pressure gradient Sun-Mon as winds turn E-SE but seas will be slow to subside so an extension of the SCA appears likely to include Sunday, at least for the offshore waters. Meanwhile, moisture increases locally which will promote a high coverage of showers and isolated storms containing heavy rain and cloud to water lightning. Brief waterspouts will also be possible especially where cell mergers occur or spin-ups driven by coastal convergence. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 209 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Shower activity has moved onshore portions of east central Florida early this morning, pushing west of I-95 in some spots. Mention of VCSH will linger at the coastal terminals as rounds of onshore moving showers persist through much of the TAF period. Heavier showers will bring periods of VIS/CIG impacts to coastal terminals, particularly from MLB southward. Have made an attempt to narrow down the most reasonable timing of peak impacts with TEMPOs, but AMDs will likely be needed throughout the day. VCSH expands to most inland terminals by mid morning with SHRA impacts currently forecast at MCO after 15Z. Breezy northeast winds will gust to 20-25 kts late this morning and into the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 83 73 83 73 / 60 50 70 60 MCO 85 73 85 73 / 70 20 60 50 MLB 84 75 83 75 / 70 50 70 70 VRB 85 74 84 75 / 80 60 70 70 LEE 85 72 84 72 / 60 10 50 30 SFB 85 73 84 73 / 70 20 60 50 ORL 84 73 84 73 / 60 20 60 50 FPR 85 73 83 74 / 80 60 70 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ550-552-555- 570-572-575. && $$ |
| #1246889 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:30 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 321 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 320 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Increasing winds will cause hazardous boating conditions beginning today through the weekend. - Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop each day through at least early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 In the upper levels, a weak shortwave will continue to dig into the Florida area through the rest of the week and will then hold in place through the weekend and early next week, resulting in an increase in atmospheric moisture. At the surface, a strong ridge centered over eastern Canada will push south into the eastern seaboard through the next few days, with a tight pressure gradient over Florida along the southern fringe of the ridge producing breezy northeast and east winds each day through at least Saturday. With the increasing moisture, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms today and Friday will become a bit more numerous this weekend and into early next week, aided on Saturday by a weak surface wave moving northwest across southern Florida into the Gulf. Under east/northeast flow, the pattern will typically be showers and storms moving east to west across the area during the afternoon, shifting into the eastern Gulf during the late afternoon and early evening hours. During the early to middle portions of next week, high pressure builds in aloft over Florida. This will allow moisture and rain chances to moderate slightly. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 320 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Mainly VFR conditions will hold through the morning. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop during the afternoon and move west across the area, bringing periods of reduced flight categories and gusty winds as storms pass over individual terminals, mainly from around 18z-00z. Rain free conditions will return by 00z or shortly thereafter, but there will remain a chance for some MVFR/IFR ceilings remaining overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 320 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 High pressure building in from the north is creating a tight pressure gradient with east and northeast winds increasing to Small Craft Advisory levels today for the coastal waters north of Englewood, then expanding to all marine zones by tonight and holding into the weekend. Seas will also build to around 7 feet or more offshore with the strongest winds. Otherwise, rain chances will become more numerous through the upcoming weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 253 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Surface high pressure will build into Florida from the north through the rest of the week, setting up breezy northeast flow. Rain chances will gradually increase each day. No humidity concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 88 74 88 74 / 60 10 50 10 FMY 88 72 87 73 / 70 30 60 30 GIF 86 72 86 73 / 60 20 50 30 SRQ 89 72 88 72 / 70 20 50 30 BKV 86 69 86 70 / 50 10 50 10 SPG 86 75 86 75 / 70 20 50 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Sunday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
| #1246888 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:24 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 316 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in from mid to late week with cooler and drier weather returning. A warm-up is expected heading into the weekend, with dry conditions continuing through next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Thursday... Key Message: - Below average temperatures and pleasant conditions today. - Gust winds expected near the coast today, followed by a decrease in winds overnight. Imelda continues to moves further away from the U.S. this morning, and the gradient between the expansive high centered across eastern Canada has started to relax. Wind gusts along the coast still range from 20 to 25 mph, while inland areas have decoupled and are observing light and variable winds. The combination of light winds and clear skies have allowed for inland areas to radiate, bringing temperatures into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Along the coast, temperatures remain in the lower to mid 60s. The high will slide southeastwards today and move across the Northeast. Imelda will track further into the North Atlantic, resulting in a continued decrease in winds. Gusts of 20 to 25 mph will linger along the coast through the early evening, but a sharp decrease in winds is expected by tonight. As we saw yesterday, another scattered low-level cloud deck will likely develop across the forecast area. With the cooler, drier airmass expected to remain in place today, no rain is in the forecast and temperatures are expected to remain slightly below normal with highs reach the upper 60s to lower 70s. Skies will start to clear this evening, so another round of radiational cooling is likely in inland areas tonight. Lows are forecast to drop into the mid-upper 40s inland, while areas near the coast will see temperatures in the mid 50s to around 60F. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Warming temperatures expected this weekend, with rain-free conditions continuing. Cooler temperatures will continue through Friday as the high continues to pump in a modified continental airmass across the region. Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s on Friday. The high to our north will slowly slide southwards Friday and reach the Mid- Atlantic coast by the afternoon. Light winds are expected at this time as the gradient will have weakened considerably with the high overhead. High pressure will remain dominant through the weekend, but temperatures will start to moderate on Saturday as an amplified mid-upper level ridge slides over the East Coast. Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s on Saturday, increasing further into the upper 70s on Sunday. Overnight temperatures Saturday will drop to 50- 55F inland and 55-60F along the coast. By Sunday, overnight temperatures will have moderate into the mid to upper 50s inland to lower to mid 60s near the coast. Although the air mass will become modified, dry conditions are anticipated as high pressure remains in place across the region. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Continued warmer temperatures to start the week, with a chance for rain coming late Tuesday as a possible front moves through the area. The synoptic pattern on Monday will remain the similar to the weekend with ridging aloft and high pressure dominating at the surface, but an upper-level trough will be approaching the region from the Great Lakes area. This will shove the high off the Mid- Atlantic coast, which will result in winds shifting to a more southerly direction. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be above normal for this time of year, likely reaching near 80F into the lower 80s. The next best shot at rain will be late Tuesday through Wednesday as a surface front associated with the aforementioned upper trough possibly moves across the region, otherwise, dry conditions will prevail. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 126 AM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions prevail at all terminals early this morning. Mostly clear skies will continue, with potentially a SCT cloud deck moving across ECG/PHF/ORF over the next few hours. Later this morning, SCT CIGs will likely expand to the remainder of the terminals, with intermittent MVFR CIGs possible. Confidence is low in any lowered MVFR CIGs, so have left them out of the TAFs for now. Winds will gradually decrease today, with gusts up to 15-25 kts (mainly at the coastal terminals) through the afternoon before gusts drop off in the evening. Primarily VFR conditions are anticipated through Friday with the potential for some fog Friday night into Sat morning across a portion of the area (best chance across the Piedmont). && .MARINE... As of 250 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - SCAs in effect for all coastal waters due to elevated NE winds and seas of 5-10ft. - SCAs for the lower Ches Bay, lower James River, and the Currituck Sound look to come down late today into tonight. - Gradually improving conditions through the early weekend, then pleasant conditions expected into early next week. Latest weather analysis reveals 1032+mb sfc high pressure building south of QC/New England into the Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas early this morning. Tropical Cyclone Imelda was visible on early morning IR/WV satellite near Bermuda, and will move NE away from the island through today. Locally E-NE winds remain elevated, but have diminished a bit over the past few hours, as the gradient slowly slackens between the departing Imelda and high pressure building over the waters. Seas remain elevated in the 8-12 ft range, comprised of mainly E 10-12 second swell. Waves are 1-2 ft on the upper bay, rivers and sound, with 2-6 ft in the lower bay, highest at the mouth of the bay. Small Craft Advisories have been discontinued north of New Point Comfort, but continue for the lower Ches Bay, Atlantic coastal waters, Currituck Sound, and the lower James River. The coastal waters will remain in SCA into the upcoming weekend, mainly for seas. The Currituck Sound, lower James River and adjacent bay zone should drop below SCA thresholds by late afternoon/early evening. Remaining breezy this morning, with winds gradually diminishing through the day, as the pressure gradient slowly slackens with high pressure building into the region. NE winds 10-15 kt north, 15-20 kt southern waters, with gusts to 25-30 kt this morning slowly diminishing this afternoon. That trend continues tonight and Friday, as high pressure builds overhead. Winds should be down to 10-15kt tonight, then 5-10kt by Friday evening. Seas will be held up mainly due to the lingering swell from the offshore tropical systems and onshore flow. Expecting seas still in the 7-10ft range over the Atlantic coast tonight into Friday, subsiding to 5-8ft by Friday morning. SCA should finally come down Saturday afternoon and evening, from south to north. More benign boating conditions expected by late in the weekend into early next week with high pressure remains in place just offshore. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 315 AM EDT Thursday... Tidal anomalies have risen to 2-2.25 feet above astronomical tides this morning, with widespread minor flooding. Water levels are a bit lower due to the astronomically lower tide cycle this morning, but as anomalies remain steady or only slowly fall, expect another 1-2 rounds of minor coastal flooding impacts along the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore, the tidal rivers of eastern VA, and southside Hampton Roads. Advisories have been extended until Thursday night for most of these areas except Accomack/Northampton Counties. Mainly nuisance flooding is expected on the Atlantic coast with subsequent high tides, so not anticipating the need for additional advisories here (although further statements are possible). High Surf Advisories slowly drop off later today and tonight, as seas slowly subside, but high rip risk persists into the upcoming weekend. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for MDZ021>023. High Surf Advisory until noon EDT today for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory until noon EDT today for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for VAZ075>078- 522. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ082- 084>086-089-090-093-523. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ083- 518-520. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095>098-524-525. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632- 638. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658. && $$ |
| #1246887 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:24 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 319 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A relatively quiet overnight for the Florida Keys. We did start the night with residual shower activity drifting off the mainland. Most of this activity diminished but a batch of showers moving through the deep Gulf waters have managed to survive. Otherwise, winds are turning north to northeast as high pressure across the Eastern Seaboard begins to exerting its influence equatorward. Temperatures range between the upper 70s to lower 80s with dew points hanging around the mid 70s. .FORECAST... The main focus for shower development today will be across the mainland during the day and afternoon, which will then drift south to southwest across the island chain. The best chances will across the Upper Keys with the Lower Keys having a lesser chance depending on if the activity holds together. The aforementioned high pressure along the East Coast will slowly attempt to move into the western North Atlantic. As this occurs it will gradually continue to build equatorward and exert more of its influence across the Florida Keys. This will result in freshening northeast to east breezes Friday with an increased threat for showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. Then eyes will turn to a feature that will develop across the Southeastern Bahamas starting Friday. A subtle easterly undulation will be moving along the periphery of the Bermuda High. The trajectory would focus it across South Florida, including the Florida Keys. Models are struggling with any form of organization. Best case scenario it remains a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms with a quasi-warm front lifting north across the area. This would equate to a wet weekend for at least portions of the Keys. Worst case scenario (and we want to preface that the National Hurricane Center only has a 10 percent chance of development at this time) a weak tropical disturbance takes form. At this time, it is way too early to tell what this feature may ultimately become but it does bear watching in the meantime. Whether a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, or a weak tropical disturbance, it will move northwest into the Gulf over the upcoming weekend. By early next week, high pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will fill back in with freshening northeast to east breezes. This combined with residual moisture looks to continue the above normal rain chances. && .MARINE... Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 The Gulfstream remains backed up from Imelda and is creating for higher tides, especially in the nearshore waters surrounding the Middle and Upper Keys. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges. High pressure is slowly moving across the eastern U.S., which will maintain a northeast wind across our waters today. This high will begin moving into the western North Atlantic later today and into the overnight and gradually build. This will lead to freshening northeast to east breezes into Friday evening. Winds will then briefly clock around towards the southeast for the upcoming weekend and return from the east early next week. Another period of moderate to fresh breezes is possible starting Monday night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the 06Z TAF period. Shower chances remain slightly above normal for this time of the year. Latest guidance a potential repeat yesterday with convection on the mainland moving southwestward weakening as it progresses across the Keys. Due to uncertainty in timing and placement, VCSH was not included in the TAF. Near surface winds will be mainly north to northeast between 3 to 8 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 88 77 88 77 / 30 30 30 40 Marathon 87 77 85 77 / 30 30 40 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1246885 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:06 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 300 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in from mid to late week with cooler and drier weather returning. A warm-up is expected heading into the weekend, with dry conditions continuing through next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Thursday... Key Message: - Below average temperatures and pleasant conditions today. - Gust winds expected near the coast today, followed by a decrease in winds overnight. Imelda continues to moves further away from the U.S. this morning, and the gradient between the expansive high centered across eastern Canada has started to relax. Wind gusts along the coast still range from 20 to 25 mph, while inland areas have decoupled and are observing light and variable winds. The combination of light winds and clear skies have allowed for inland areas to radiate, bringing temperatures into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Along the coast, temperatures remain in the lower to mid 60s. The high will slide southeastwards today and move across the Northeast. Imelda will track further into the North Atlantic, resulting in a continued decrease in winds. Gusts of 20 to 25 mph will linger along the coast through the early evening, but a sharp decrease in winds is expected by tonight. As we saw yesterday, another scattered low-level cloud deck will likely develop across the forecast area. With the cooler, drier airmass expected to remain in place today, no rain is in the forecast and temperatures are expected to remain slightly below normal with highs reach the upper 60s to lower 70s. Skies will start to clear this evening, so another round of radiational cooling is likely in inland areas tonight. Lows are forecast to drop into the mid-upper 40s inland, while areas near the coast will see temperatures in the mid 50s to around 60F. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Warming temperatures expected this weekend, with rain-free conditions continuing. Cooler temperatures will continue through Friday as the high continues to pump in a modified continental airmass across the region. Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s on Friday. The high to our north will slowly slide southwards Friday and reach the Mid- Atlantic coast by the afternoon. Light winds are expected at this time as the gradient will have weakened considerably with the high overhead. High pressure will remain dominant through the weekend, but temperatures will start to moderate on Saturday as an amplified mid-upper level ridge slides over the East Coast. Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s on Saturday, increasing further into the upper 70s on Sunday. Overnight temperatures Saturday will drop to 50- 55F inland and 55-60F along the coast. By Sunday, overnight temperatures will have moderate into the mid to upper 50s inland to lower to mid 60s near the coast. Although the air mass will become modified, dry conditions are anticipated as high pressure remains in place across the region. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Continued warmer temperatures to start the week, with a chance for rain coming late Tuesday as a possible front moves through the area. The synoptic pattern on Monday will remain the similar to the weekend with ridging aloft and high pressure dominating at the surface, but an upper-level trough will be approaching the region from the Great Lakes area. This will shove the high off the Mid- Atlantic coast, which will result in winds shifting to a more southerly direction. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be above normal for this time of year, likely reaching near 80F into the lower 80s. The next best shot at rain will be late Tuesday through Wednesday as a surface front associated with the aforementioned upper trough possibly moves across the region, otherwise, dry conditions will prevail. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 126 AM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions prevail at all terminals early this morning. Mostly clear skies will continue, with potentially a SCT cloud deck moving across ECG/PHF/ORF over the next few hours. Later this morning, SCT CIGs will likely expand to the remainder of the terminals, with intermittent MVFR CIGs possible. Confidence is low in any lowered MVFR CIGs, so have left them out of the TAFs for now. Winds will gradually decrease today, with gusts up to 15-25 kts (mainly at the coastal terminals) through the afternoon before gusts drop off in the evening. Primarily VFR conditions are anticipated through Friday with the potential for some fog Friday night into Sat morning across a portion of the area (best chance across the Piedmont). && .MARINE... As of 250 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - SCAs in effect for all coastal waters due to elevated NE winds and seas of 5-10ft. - SCAs for the lower Ches Bay, lower James River, and the Currituck Sound look to come down late today into tonight. - Gradually improving conditions through the early weekend, then pleasant conditions expected into early next week. Latest weather analysis reveals 1032+mb sfc high pressure building south of QC/New England into the Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas early this morning. Tropical Cyclone Imelda was visible on early morning IR/WV satellite near Bermuda, and will move NE away from the island through today. Locally E-NE winds remain elevated, but have diminished a bit over the past few hours, as the gradient slowly slackens between the departing Imelda and high pressure building over the waters. Seas remain elevated in the 8-12 ft range, comprised of mainly E 10-12 second swell. Waves are 1-2 ft on the upper bay, rivers and sound, with 2-6 ft in the lower bay, highest at the mouth of the bay. Small Craft Advisories have been discontinued north of New Point Comfort, but continue for the lower Ches Bay, Atlantic coastal waters, Currituck Sound, and the lower James River. The coastal waters will remain in SCA into the upcoming weekend, mainly for seas. The Currituck Sound, lower James River and adjacent bay zone should drop below SCA thresholds by late afternoon/early evening. Remaining breezy this morning, with winds gradually diminishing through the day, as the pressure gradient slowly slackens with high pressure building into the region. NE winds 10-15 kt north, 15-20 kt southern waters, with gusts to 25-30 kt this morning slowly diminishing this afternoon. That trend continues tonight and Friday, as high pressure builds overhead. Winds should be down to 10-15kt tonight, then 5-10kt by Friday evening. Seas will be held up mainly due to the lingering swell from the offshore tropical systems and onshore flow. Expecting seas still in the 7-10ft range over the Atlantic coast tonight into Friday, subsiding to 5-8ft by Friday morning. SCA should finally come down Saturday afternoon and evening, from south to north. More benign boating conditions expected by late in the weekend into early next week with high pressure remains in place just offshore. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 900 PM EDT Wednesday... Tidal anomalies have risen to 1-2 feet above astronomical tides this evening, with widespread minor flooding being observed across the Chesapeake Bay, tidal rivers, and Atlantic coast. Localized moderate flooding is occurring at Jamestown and may occur at Bishop`s Head/Lewisetta/Tappahannock later this evening and again with the early morning high tide cycle. Added a Coastal Flood Advisory for the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore (through 4 AM Friday AM). Water levels are expected to crest at ~3.7 ft MLLW at Cambridge, Bishop`s Head, and Crisfield with the late evening high tide cycle. Otherwise, have maintained a Coastal Flood Warning over the upper tidal James with Coastal Flood Advisories in most other tidal locations. Water levels gradually fall across the ocean and lower bay later tonight, Thursday, and Thursday night...but remain steady or rise a bit in the upper bay as winds decrease and water becomes trapped. Advisories have been extended until Thursday night for most of the bay except Accomack/Northampton Counties. Mainly nuisance flooding is expected on the Atlantic coast with subsequent high tides, so not anticipating the need for additional advisories here (although statements are possible). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for MDZ021>023. High Surf Advisory until noon EDT today for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory until noon EDT today for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for VAZ075>078- 522. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ082- 084>086-089-090-093-523. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ083- 518-520. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095>098-524-525. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632- 638. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658. && $$ |
| #1246884 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:00 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 246 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather continues today with near-seasonable temperatures as high pressure to our north brings decreasing northeast winds. Warming trend then begins on Friday, heralding a potential multi-day stretch of above normal high temperatures in the lower 80s for the weekend into early next week. Dry weather is expected to prevail through early next week, with our next chance for rainfall not anticipated until the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 245 AM Update: Key Messages: * Decreasing northeast breezes for eastern and southeast coastal New England, but with a mix of sun and clouds and highs lower 60s. * Mostly clear with light winds for interior Southern New England, with highs in the mid/upper 60s. Details: Governing weather pattern is little changed early this morning, with a 1032 mb high pressure area extending a surface ridge axis through New England into the Carolina Piedmont. This is associated with a cool and dry airmass, with precipitable water values per regional 00z RAOB analyses down to around 0.35". For most of interior Southern New England, as you head outside this morning it will certainly feel every bit like an typical early- autumn morning with temps down into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Stronger NE winds continue across eastern and southeast MA, adjacent portions of RI and particularly across the Cape and Islands where NE winds have been gusting to around 25-30 mph. This has led to temps running well into the 50s. While skies were clear in most locations, infrared satellite reveals an increasing field of cold air stratocumulus over the Gulf of Maine with the cooler air over the milder waters; this cloudiness was poised to advect southwestward into southeastern New England this morning. Despite the cooler and in some isolated locations frosty start in the interior, shaping up to be a really nice Thursday as plenty of sun should allow for temps to recover pretty well today. We`ll be able to mix down even drier air this afternoon and dewpoints around the low 30s seem achiveable in interior Southern New England, which will dry out soils as RHs drop to around 30-40 percent. While still breezy across southeast MA and the Cape and Islands this morning the trend will be for decreasing northeast winds, and we`ll see more of a mix of sun and stratocumulus clouds across RI, the South Coast and the Cape and Islands. Highs mainly in the 60s, with cooler lower-60s readings over the eastern coast of MA and into the mid to upper 60s for the CT Valley. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... 245 AM Update: Key Messages: * Clear and dry with light winds tonight, lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. * Warming trend starts Fri, with full sun and highs in the lower to mid 70s, but cooler upper 60s along the immediate South Coast and Cape and Islands. Modest southwest breezes. Details: Tonight: High pressure becomes centered south of Southern New England tonight, which will generate optimal radiational cooling with light winds and anticipated strong hourly temperature falls after sundown. High clouds are expected to stream in early in the evening, which will herald the arrival of much-warmer air over the upper Midwest/Gt Lakes region that moves in for late in the week/this weekend. Lows eventually bottom out to the upper 30s to mid 40s given modest warm advection. Friday: High pressure remains anchored south of Southern New England for Fri, which will bring an increased southerly flow but not particularly breezy with winds around 10 mph. Although will see some high clouds continue to stream in, looking at a much warmer Fri compared to the last few days as 925 mb temps warm to around +10- 12C. The southern coast will be a little cooler with highs in the upper 60s given the SW winds off the water, but highs elsewhere should reach into the lower to mid 70s when factoring in SW downsloping and the warm feedback from the dry soil conditions resulting in daytime temps overachieving by a few degrees of late. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Messages: * Above normal temperatures and dry weather this weekend into early next week. Possible multi-day stretch of low to mid 80s temps away from the coasts. Fire weather concerns possible too. * Next chance for rain around Wed or Wed night. Details: An anomalously strong mid to upper level ridge for early October will be building into Southern New England this weekend and into early next week. This will bring a period of above to well above normal temperatures and continued dry weather conditions. In fact we could be looking at a multi-day stretch of highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Although ensemble probabilistic temperature datasets show low (30% or less) probs of highs in the mid 80s this weekend, think values this high are a conceivable outcome given the continued warm advection and the dry soils providing a warm-feedback on temps. Bias- corrected temperature datasets probably will perform pretty well for this timeframe. While winds are light (seabreezes near the coasts), RHs are likely to be on the lower side and that could lead to elevated fire weather concerns on most days this weekend into early next week. Southwest winds are noticeably stronger on Tue, so that could be one day where fire weather concerns appear greatest. As we`ve been mentioning, this is a very dry pattern we`re stuck in. Our next chance for rain arrives with a cold front around Wed or Wed night, with latest ensembles slowing this front`s arrival again by another 12 hours or so. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update: Through 12z Thursday: High confidence. VFR for most, though SCT-BKN stratocumulus bases around low end VFR to MVFR may start to develop over the Cape airports after 08z. Light north winds in the interior, but stronger NE winds around 10-15 kt for eastern/southeast MA, with continued gusts 25-28 kt for the Cape. Today: High confidence. Largely VFR, though low-end VFR/MVFR stratocumulus clouds over southeast airports should lift/scatter out by 18z. Decreasing NE winds through early this afternoon, with light E/SE winds towards late this afternoon. Tonight and Friday: High confidence. VFR. Light winds tonight, then becoming southerly 5-10 kt on Fri. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. NE winds 10-15 kt lighten by 15z, then begin a slow clockwise turn to ESE thru late afternoon, speeds under 10 kt. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night through Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Gale warnings have been downshifted to SCAs for nearshore and the ocean waters into Thurs or Thurs evening (outer waters). NE winds over the southeast waters remain around 25-30 kt this morning, but will becoming increasingly sub-SCA as we move into the afternoon. It will take longer for seas to subside below SCA criteria but expect that SCAs can be dropped by overnight tonight. Winds and seas are sub-SCA for Friday, with SW winds around 10-15 kt (locally around 20 kt over northeast waters) and seas 3-4 ft. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Saturday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ231>235-237-251. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ250-254>256. && $$ |
| #1246883 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:54 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 248 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in from mid to late week with cooler and drier weather returning. A warm-up is expected heading into the weekend, with dry conditions continuing through next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 740 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Continued breezy along the coast tonight and Thursday, but otherwise pleasant conditions are expected. Latest sfc analysis depicted ~1032mb high pressure centered over QB this evening, extending S into the northern Mid- Atlantic region. Meanwhile, Hurricane Imelda is tracking ENE well off the Carolina coast. This is creating a strong pressure gradient with a NE wind gusting up to 25-35 mph toward and along the coast. Surface high pressure builds S tonight as Imelda moves farther out to sea. Clearing and decoupling should allow lows to drop into the mid/upper 40s over the Piedmont tonight, with upper 40s/lower 50s for the I-95 corridor and interior coastal plain, and upper 50s/lower 60s along the coast where a 10-15 mph NE wind and cloud cover will persist overnight. High pressure remains ~1032mb and becomes centered near Cape Cod Thursday. Partly cloudy skies with high temperatures around 70F are expected. Additionally, breezy conditions continue along the coast with a NE wind gusting to 20-25 mph, but overall, less wind than today. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Near to below average temperatures and pleasant conditions Friday and Saturday. Cooler temperatures will continue Thursday night into Friday as the high continues to pump in a modified continental airmass across the region. Decent radiational cooling conditions are expected away from the coast Thursday night with lows dropping into the mid/upper 40s, with mid 50s to near 60F at the coast. Highs Friday will primarily be in the lower to mid 70s. Surface high pressure settles off the Mid-Atlantic coast Friday night into Saturday. Lows drop into the mid 40s to around 50F inland early Saturday morning with mid 50s to around 60F at the coast. Highs Saturday moderate into the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 344 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Warming temperatures expected later this weekend into early next week. High pressure will remain dominant through the remainder of the weekend, but temperatures will slowly moderate as an amplified mid-upper level ridge gradually slides over the East Coast. Highs Sunday warm into the mid/upper 70s after morning lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Even warmer Monday and Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Milder overnight lows are forecast Sunday night through Tuesday night as low-level moisture gradually increases. Although the air mass will become modified, dry conditions are anticipated as high pressure remains in place across the region. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 126 AM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions prevail at all terminals early this morning. Mostly clear skies will continue, with potentially a SCT cloud deck moving across ECG/PHF/ORF over the next few hours. Later this morning, SCT CIGs will likely expand to the remainder of the terminals, with intermittent MVFR CIGs possible. Confidence is low in any lowered MVFR CIGs, so have left them out of the TAFs for now. Winds will gradually decrease today, with gusts up to 15-25 kts (mainly at the coastal terminals) through the afternoon before gusts drop off in the evening. Primarily VFR conditions are anticipated through Friday with the potential for some fog Friday night into Sat morning across a portion of the area (best chance across the Piedmont). && .MARINE... As of 250 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - SCAs in effect for all coastal waters due to elevated NE winds and seas of 5-10ft. - SCAs for the lower Ches Bay, lower James River, and the Currituck Sound look to come down late today into tonight. - Gradually improving conditions through the early weekend, then pleasant conditions expected into early next week. Latest weather analysis reveals 1032+mb sfc high pressure building south of QC/New England into the Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas early this morning. Tropical Cyclone Imelda was visible on early morning IR/WV satellite near Bermuda, and will move NE away from the island through today. Locally E-NE winds remain elevated, but have diminished a bit over the past few hours, as the gradient slowly slackens between the departing Imelda and high pressure building over the waters. Seas remain elevated in the 8-12 ft range, comprised of mainly E 10-12 second swell. Waves are 1-2 ft on the upper bay, rivers and sound, with 2-6 ft in the lower bay, highest at the mouth of the bay. Small Craft Advisories have been discontinued north of New Point Comfort, but continue for the lower Ches Bay, Atlantic coastal waters, Currituck Sound, and the lower James River. The coastal waters will remain in SCA into the upcoming weekend, mainly for seas. The Currituck Sound, lower James River and adjacent bay zone should drop below SCA thresholds by late afternoon/early evening. Remaining breezy this morning, with winds gradually diminishing through the day, as the pressure gradient slowly slackens with high pressure building into the region. NE winds 10-15 kt north, 15-20 kt southern waters, with gusts to 25-30 kt this morning slowly diminishing this afternoon. That trend continues tonight and Friday, as high pressure builds overhead. Winds should be down to 10-15kt tonight, then 5-10kt by Friday evening. Seas will be held up mainly due to the lingering swell from the offshore tropical systems and onshore flow. Expecting seas still in the 7-10ft range over the Atlantic coast tonight into Friday, subsiding to 5-8ft by Friday morning. SCA should finally come down Saturday afternoon and evening, from south to north. More benign boating conditions expected by late in the weekend into early next week with high pressure remains in place just offshore. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 900 PM EDT Wednesday... Tidal anomalies have risen to 1-2 feet above astronomical tides this evening, with widespread minor flooding being observed across the Chesapeake Bay, tidal rivers, and Atlantic coast. Localized moderate flooding is occurring at Jamestown and may occur at Bishop`s Head/Lewisetta/Tappahannock later this evening and again with the early morning high tide cycle. Added a Coastal Flood Advisory for the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore (through 4 AM Friday AM). Water levels are expected to crest at ~3.7 ft MLLW at Cambridge, Bishop`s Head, and Crisfield with the late evening high tide cycle. Otherwise, have maintained a Coastal Flood Warning over the upper tidal James with Coastal Flood Advisories in most other tidal locations. Water levels gradually fall across the ocean and lower bay later tonight, Thursday, and Thursday night...but remain steady or rise a bit in the upper bay as winds decrease and water becomes trapped. Advisories have been extended until Thursday night for most of the bay except Accomack/Northampton Counties. Mainly nuisance flooding is expected on the Atlantic coast with subsequent high tides, so not anticipating the need for additional advisories here (although statements are possible). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for MDZ021>023. High Surf Advisory until noon EDT today for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory until noon EDT today for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for VAZ075>078- 522. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ082- 084>086-089-090-093-523. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ083- 518-520. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095>098-524-525. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632- 638. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658. && $$ |
| #1246880 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 225 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong high pressure will extend across the region into the weekend, with rain chances increasing on Sunday into early next week. A cold front may approach the region in the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The center of a 1030 mb high will remain centered over the Northeast U.S. today and tonight. The sfc ridge will extend SW along the east facing slopes of the Appalachians. An H5 trough will ripple off the Southeast U.S., supporting an inverted sfc trough over the Gulf Stream. In fact, NHC highlights a disturbance within the trough between FL and the Bahamas with a 10% chance of formation over the next 48 hrs. This pattern will support dry and gusty northeast winds across the forecast area through the near term. High temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 70s across the SC Lowcountry to the low 80s across SE GA. Tonight, the sfc trough over the western Atlantic will shift slightly coastward this evening. Showers and thunderstorms over the nearshore waters may brush up against the coast, especially the GA coast. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 50s inland to the mid 60s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A weak upper-lvl high will linger across the Southeast CONUS, as inverted trough sits along the coastal Atlantic waters. These two features combined will continue to support an enhanced pressure gradient along the Eastern Seaboard and cause for breezy north- northeasterly winds to persist across the region (w/ winds highest near the coastline) into early next week. Surface high pressure will start to slide off the East Coast this weekend, and slowly allow moisture to return to region. Along with this, north-easterly winds will shift more easterly to southeasterly and provide a more moist onshore flow. This onshore flow will support increased chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend into early next week. However, given the relatively dry airmass in place with the inland wedge, the best rain chances will remain confined to the coastal counties and beaches. Consequently, WPC has highlighted a portion of SE SC and SE GA counties along the coast in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will gradually warm back up to near-normal values with highs reaching into the upper 70s to low 80s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper-lvl low tries to form over the northwest Gulf along a stationary front, and then gradually tries to move northward towards the region early next week. Shortwave energy around the weakening upper-lvl ridge + moist onshore flow will keep increased shower and thunderstorm chances through mid-week (esp. in the afternoon/evening hours). Hence, the southeast will remain in rather wet and active pattern and PWATs are expected to reach near 2 inches. Highest chances for precipitation remain along the Georgia coastline where some flooding of mainly low-lying and poor drainage areas could occur, esp. if rain falls during the already elevated high tides. Deterministic and ensemble models have been hinting at a cold front approaching the region by the middle of next week, and possibly extending rain chances. Seasonable temperatures will continue with highs reaching into the upper 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 06Z TAFs: VFR. Gusty NE winds are expected to start around daybreak Thursday. Winds should settle between 10 to 15 kts this evening by 1Z. Extended Aviation Forecast: Mostly VFR. Brief flight restrictions are possible with showers and thunderstorms that develop in the afternoon/evening hours this weekend into early next week. && .MARINE... Today and tonight: The marine zones will remain between a ridge across the western Carolinas and coast trough. Northeast winds will remain between 25 to 30 kts with gusts into the low 30s. Gusts may reach gale force across portions of the Atlantic waters, but coverage and duration appears limited. Gusts across the CHS Harbor should favor values around 25 kts today through this evening. Swell sourced from Imelda will remain across the marine zones through the near term. Seas should peak today between 7 to 11 ft. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all marine zones. Friday through Tuesday: Breezy north-northeasterly winds at 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt will likely hold through the weekend as the region as the inland wedge strengthens. Additionally, swell from Imelda with long-period swell from Humberto will continue to pump into the local waters through the weekend causing seas to range from 6 to 8 ft in the nearshore waters, and 8 to 10 ft in the outer Georgia waters. The swell should begin to taper back some on Sunday night. Therefore, Small Craft Advisories (SCAs) remain for all marine zones through early next week due the combination of high winds and seas. Rip Currents/High Surf: A High Risk of rip currents is expected Thursday (today) and Friday at all beaches due to large, long-period swells and strong winds. In addition, large breaking waves of 5+ feet are expected through much of the week and a High Surf Advisory remains in effect until Saturday morning. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As astronomical tides increase this week, the risk for minor coastal flooding will increase for Charleston and Coastal Colleton Counties during the afternoon high tide cycles. A Coastal Flood Advisory could eventually be needed for this afternoon. Heading into this weekend and early next week, astronomical tides will increase due to the upcoming Full Moon (Oct 7) and Perigee (Oct 8). This in combination with the anticipation of continued northeasterly flow will cause the possibility of coastal flooding to become more likely along the entire coastline, including both Downtown Charleston and Fort Pulaski. Saltwater inundation could then occur during both the morning and evening high tide cycles during this time. Although there is considerable uncertainty this far out, persistent favorable winds have the potential to produce up to major coastal flooding. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ117-119-139- 141. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for GAZ117-119-139- 141. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ048>051. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for SCZ048>051. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ330. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ350-352-354. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1246879 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:33 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 219 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Dangerous Beach & Marine Impacts through the Weekend: High Rip Current Risk, High Surf & Small Craft Advisory conditions - Extended Minor to Moderate Tidal Flooding through the Weekend. - Rain Chance Increase Today through Weekend. Daily Rounds of Heavy Rain & Isolated Embedded Thunderstorms. Localized Flood Risk at Coast & Low-lying Locations && .NEAR TERM... (Today through Tonight) Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A surge of northeasterly winds develops across the region as strong high pressure ridging wedges down the eastern seaboard. An inverted coastal trough sharpens forming scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms over the coastal waters shifting onshore in waves today into tonight. Lingering drier air (PWATs 1.3-1.5 in) and subsidence will limit shower activity to mainly coastal areas and the St Johns River Basin. Breezy NE winds are already gusting up to 30 mph along the coast early this morning. Today, wind gusts will increase to 20-25 mph inland to 30-35 mph along the coast. A few spots along the coast may reach up to 40 mph. In the NE flow, daytime highs will range from the upper 70s along the SE GA coast to the mid 80s along the I-75 corridor. Overnight lows will range from the low 60s inland SE GA to the low 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 An increasingly unsettled weather regime will occur during this time period, to including overcast skies, increased rain chances area-wide with localized flooding rainfall, hazardous marine winds and seas, coastal tidal flooding, and rough and dangerous surf. Surface high pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic will slowly shift eastward through the period while an area of low pressure and frontal boundary slowly move north from the southern Gulf and south FL. A broad mid/upper level trough also extends across the Gulf to most of the FL peninsula this period that slowly weakens and moves north. An inverted trough is also likely to stay intact off the southeast U.S. coast. This synoptic combination along with a gradual veering wind profile will lead to increased moisture and low level convergence supporting higher chances of showers and embedded thunderstorm. The rainfall risk increases for the area on Saturday as PWAT values rise to about the 90th percentile relative to climatology with values of about 1.95 inches. This more elevated risk of showers and embedded storms continues into Saturday night. Heaviest rainfall is emphasized along the coastal areas. Total rainfall during this period is forecast at about 1-2 inches coast and about 0.50 inches or less inland. However, some higher amounts possible for coastal counties, especially for St Johns, Flagler, and eastern Putnam counties where values could reach to around 3-4 inches. This will support a risk of flooding and be exacerbated by the tidal flooding we are expecting. Gusty east to northeast coastal winds also expected during the period with winds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 35 mph. Some outside chances of 40 mph gusts especially in the shower activity. Can`t rule out the need for a wind advisory coastal zones for pure pressure gradient winds. Any strong gusts in showers of 40-45 mph will be convective in nature and thus could be covered by Special Weather Statements (SPS). High temperatures will be a bit below normal in the 80-85 degree range and lows will trend a bit higher due to clouds and precip. Lows are forecast in the mid 60s over inland southeast GA to lower 70s coast and then trend to mostly about 70-75 deg Sat night. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A 2028 mb high pressure system is forecast to be positioned off the Mid Atlantic states on Sunday and is forecast to move further east next week as a cold front moves into the eastern U.S. and into the TN Valley. The low level flow for our area will continue to feed moisture into the area off the Atlantic on east- southeast surface winds. For the first couple of days, the models still show some broad surface low pressure over the Gulf with enhanced easterly winds and a good possibility of numerous to widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms on Sunday and probably into Monday. Some drier air begins to work into the area late Monday into Tuesday as mean deep layer winds veer to south- southeast and push deep moisture north of the area. Though lesser chances of showers and storms are anticipated Tue-Wed as onshore flow weakens, sufficient moisture and daytime heating will still lead to a chance of convection each day. For overnight hours, at least few showers will be possible along coastal areas due to the persistent moist easterly flow. The breezy easterly winds continue on Sunday and Monday and probably will trend a little lower Tue-Wed as the pressure gradient relaxes more. As far as impacts, minor to moderate coastal flooding is likely to continue at least for Sun-Tue, with trapped tides also in the St Johns River Basin. Rainfall amounts of up to 2-4 inches are forecast for the coastal areas. Lesser rainfall amounts expected after Tuesday. The beaches will continue to see enhanced surf heights, some beach erosion, and strong rip currents. Below normal highs by 3-5 degrees are forecast on Sunday and then will start to trend a bit warmer toward climate during the rest of the period. Lows are forecast in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with warmest readings at the coast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Breezy NE winds and mostly VFR conditions prevail through the period. Occasional MVFR ceilings will be possible early this morning. Coastal sites remain elevated overnight with sustained winds 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts. Inland sites will be less than 10 kts early this morning then quickly increase after 13Z. Wind gusts during the day will generally be in the 20-25 knot range, with potential gusts up to 30 kts for SSI and SGJ. Rounds of coastal showers will shift onshore mainly south of CRG through 18Z before shifting northward. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Small Craft Advisory conditions with strong northeasterly winds and elevated seas will persist across the coastal waters through the upcoming weekend and into next week, along with occasional wind gusts to Gale Force. Strong high pressure will wedge down the southeastern seaboard today. Coastal troughing will sharpen over our local waters late this week, generating increasing chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms. Winds will shift to easterly by Friday and the weekend as high pressure shifts offshore of the Mid- Atlantic states. Rip currents: Rough seas and high wind waves will maintain high rip current risk today and continuing through the weekend. Surf: Surf continues to reach toward the 6-10 foot range through the week. Surf will be slow to subside this week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Minor flooding observed these past couple of high tide cycles will continue today for areas along the St. Johns River from downtown JAX southward and along the St. Johns/Flagler coasts and Intracoastal Waterways. This will keep the Coastal Flood Advisory in place today as peak water levels remain generally in the 1.5 to 2.0 ft above MHHW range. The ENE surge of winds combined with higher astronomical tides due to the approaching full Moon and lingering swells from Imelda will result in minor coastal flooding expanding to the entire St. Johns River Basin and all beachfront locations of NE FL/SE GA through the weekend. Guidance continues to show the potential for moderate coastal flooding along the St. Johns/Flagler coasts and St. Johns river south of Jacksonville with water levels peaking in the 2.0 to 2.5 ft above MHHW. A Coastal Flood Watch is in effect to account for this potential. Trapped tides in the St. Johns River will likely prolong flooding into next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 82 63 82 65 / 0 0 10 10 SSI 79 69 80 71 / 30 50 50 40 JAX 81 69 83 70 / 40 50 70 30 SGJ 82 72 83 72 / 40 60 70 50 GNV 85 68 85 69 / 20 40 40 20 OCF 85 70 84 71 / 30 20 40 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ124-125-138-233- 333. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ124-125. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ132- 137-138-233-333-633. Coastal Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday evening for FLZ132-137-138-233-333-633. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ325. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for GAZ154-166. High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1246878 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 209 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 735 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025 - Heavy downpours developing along the coast overnight. Localized flooding may result as multiple rounds of rain are forecast through the weekend. - Prolonged, dangerous beach and marine conditions including life- threatening rip currents, high surf with breaking waves of at least 5 to 8 feet, and minor to moderate beach erosion expected through at least part of the weekend. - Breezy and gusty conditions continue through late week and into the weekend, with the highest gusts anticipated along the coast. && .UPDATE... (Through Midday Thursday) Issued at 735 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025 We are still watching for a potentially active stretch of weather beginning tonight through at least midday Thursday, particularly along the coast. Notably, increasing onshore boundary-layer flow is increasing coastal convergence and moisture. Surface winds at the coast are backing more to the NNE, which is likely indicative of a sharpening surface trough offshore. This is supported by an uptick in radar echos in the local Atlantic. Meanwhile, an upper-air disturbance at H3 should be positioned over N Fla by late tonight, promoting divergence aloft and broad lift. The result appears to be heightened coverage of showers (and perhaps a few lightning strikes) focused along the coast. The current forecast has this well in hand, and the highest potential for locally excessive rainfall still looks to reside from S Brevard to Martin County. For this area, 01/12Z REFS suggests a 1-in-10 chance for 4-5" 24-hour tallies on a localized basis. 10% exceedance values are in the 2-3" range over Volusia and N Brevard counties. If this rain falls over urbanized or poorly-drained locations, there will be a risk for flooding. Will continue to monitor trends through the night and keep everyone updated as this situation evolves. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025 Rest of Today-Tonight...Mostly dry conditions this afternoon, then there is potential for locally heavy rainfall along the coastal corridor during the overnight period. Hurricane Imelda and the remnants of Humberto near Bermuda continue to depart quickly to the east-northeast, as surface high pressure builds down the eastern US and Atlantic seaboard. The pressure gradient over Florida between these features has loosened a bit today, resulting in north-northeasterly winds up to around 10-15 mph this afternoon. This onshore flow is continuing to provide decent low- level moisture as evident by the healthy cu- field, but very dry air above 700mb filtering in this afternoon is killing almost all deep convection. A few light showers have developed near Lake Okeechobee where a portion of the boundary camped out over the northern Space and southern Treasure Coast Atlantic waters has pushed onshore with a diffuse sea breeze. Could see a few showers eventually develop to the north as we get a bit more daytime heating, but most of this afternoon`s activity will be on the western side of the peninsula where the sea breeze collision will occur. Can`t rule out an isolated lightning storm, capable of gusty winds to 40 mph and occasional cloud to ground lightning, but the odds are very much against given the poor instability. Overnight the pressure gradient tightens a little as the high builds down the eastern seaboard, increasing onshore flow a bit. Combined with an increase in moisture and a mid-level trough swinging in aloft, rain chances over the Atlantic waters increase, which could pile up along the coast due to coastal convergence as they try to push onshore, producing heavy rainfall amounts of 1-3", and locally high amounts over 4". Up till the 12Z HREF highest chances for heavy rainfall had been holding fairly consistently along the Treasure and southern Space Coasts thank to the camped out boundary, but this latest run is now showing potential along the whole East Central Florida coast, where there is a Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. Chances for lightning storms also increase, with isolated to scattered storms capable of gusty winds to 45 mph and occasional to maybe frequent lightning possible. High seas across the local Atlantic waters combined with long period swells will maintain hazardous conditions at all east central Florida beaches. Breaking waves of 6 to 8 feet and a high risk of rip currents will be present. Entering the surf is highly discouraged! Thursday-Friday...Potentially for locally heavy rainfall along the coast continues as rain chances increase. Beach and marine conditions remain hazardous as onshore flow pick ups again and long period swell from distant Hurricane Imelda and the now remnants of Humberto continue to reach our coast. Troughing over the southeast becomes cutoff by ridging building over the eastern half of the CONUS, while at the surface deep high pressure slides down the eastern seaboard, causing the pressure gradient to tighten again. Winds become more easterly, increasing to 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph inland and 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph along the coast in the afternoons. Moisture continue to gradually increase, supporting scattered (possibly numerous across the south) onshore moving showers and storms Thursday, increasing to scattered to numerous across most of the area Friday. Highest chances will be during the afternoon hours, but overnight chances will be higher than normal, especially along the coast. Locally heavy rainfall will remain possible, especially along the coastal corridor from coastal convergence. Continue to call for rainfall amounts of 1-3" with locally higher amounts over 4" along the coast, where we keep a Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk of excessive rainfall each day. Chances for lightning storms remain fairly low (30% or less) due to weak instability. Saturday-Tuesday...Looking very wet and breezy through the long- term forecast period. The ridge aloft is gradually shunted south and offshore by a trough swinging across the CONUS, with the cutoff low meandering around the base of ridge over the north Gulf before eventually dissipating. Surface high pressure over the eastern seaboard begins to push offshore, allowing a residual surface boundary and associated high moisture to lift north into central Florida. Moderate to fresh onshore flow will continue through the period, and there is potential for a trough or even weak low pressure system to develop along the axis of high moisture, further enhancing onshore flow. As a result, forecast calls for well above normal rain chances, continuing a risk for heavy rainfall along the coast. Poor to hazardous beach and marine conditions will be very slow to subside because of the continued onshore flow, persisting through the weekend and possibly into early next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 301 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025 No significant chances to current and expected marine conditions. Hazardous to dangerous boating conditions are forecast across the local Atlantic waters over the next several days. Swells from Imelda and distant Hurricane Humberto combined with persistent northeast to east winds of 15 to 25 knots will keep seas generally between 7 to 12 feet through the period. Winds are forecast to slowly decrease to 15 to 20 knots late weekend into early next week, with seas subsiding even slower. A Small Craft Advisory for these conditions remains in effect today through at least Saturday night, though extensions in time across the local waters may continue to be needed. Scattered to numerous showers will continue to be possible across the local Atlantic waters over the next several days as moisture increases locally. Lower chances for storms, though development cannot be fully ruled out. The main concerns with any storms would be lightning strikes and heavy downpours. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 209 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Shower activity has moved onshore portions of east central Florida early this morning, pushing west of I-95 in some spots. Mention of VCSH will linger at the coastal terminals as rounds of onshore moving showers persist through much of the TAF period. Heavier showers will bring periods of VIS/CIG impacts to coastal terminals, particularly from MLB southward. Have made an attempt to narrow down the most reasonable timing of peak impacts with TEMPOs, but AMDs will likely be needed throughout the day. VCSH expands to most inland terminals by mid morning with SHRA impacts currently forecast at MCO after 15Z. Breezy northeast winds will gust to 20-25 kts late this morning and into the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 83 73 83 73 / 60 50 70 60 MCO 85 73 85 73 / 70 20 60 50 MLB 84 75 83 75 / 70 50 70 70 VRB 85 74 84 75 / 80 60 70 70 LEE 85 72 84 72 / 60 10 50 30 SFB 85 73 84 73 / 70 20 60 50 ORL 84 73 84 73 / 60 20 60 50 FPR 85 73 83 74 / 80 60 70 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ550-552-555- 570-572-575. && $$ |
| #1246877 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:15 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 206 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry conditions are slated as strong Canadian high pressure ridges in from the north thru the upcoming weekend into next week. Isolated showers are possible, mainly moving onshore near the coast late Fri and again this weekend. Small craft advisory conditions will persist across the local waters for the remainder of the work-week and likely into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Surface high pressure will continue to ridge southward into the Carolinas resulting in near normal temperatures. The column is dry above H85, with some rounds of low-level moisture supported by the NE then Ely flow. Overall, not enough moisture to work with to support any PoPs over land areas. The center of high pressure will push southward toward southern New England by tonight, with the ridge axis persisting across the Carolinas. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Upper ridge axis to become oriented from SE (offshore and east of the Outer Banks) to NW (eastern Great Lakes), remaining just north and east of the area this period. At the sfc, ridging will extend across the Carolinas from the high`s center over the NE States, that will drop south to just off the coast from the Mid-Atlantic states. by the end of this period. A tightened sfc pg will remain across the FA, further tightening south of the FA. Looking at NE winds thru Sat becoming E Sat night, and extending up to 5H. Periodic and subtle inverted sfc trofs to move off the Atlantic and onshore. The deeper moisture (sfc to 700mb) will reside mainly south of the FA but enough moisture could result in isolated showers and a few hundredths of an inch, mainly where activity moves onshore across the SC Coast late Fri ad possibly again late Sat, when winds become more easterly. Slow warming trend this period, near normal temps Fri, to slightly above Sat with maxes in the low 80s(above normal). More clouds slated for Sat than Fri (diurnally driven). With plenty of dry air above 850mb, not much vertical extent to these clouds expected, thus will only have low topped showers as the threat. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper ridging pattern to persist into early next week, with sfc ridging continuing across the Carolinas even as the center of the sfc high pushes off the Mid-Atlantic Coast and further offshore. This will continue the sfc ENE-ESE flow across the FA. In fact, this easterly flow will extend up to atleast the 500mb and possibly the 400mb level. Again, subtle embedded inverted sfc trofs or weak low level short waves to move along the southern periphery of the ridging and onshore and inland. Enough moisture will be avbl for isolated showers each aftn/evening with the days heating and weak instability aiding as they track further inland. By the Tue/Wed time-line, the upper ridging progged to break down allowing atleast the approach and possibly next CFP. Confidence remains low for this scenario playing out but did highlight at most 20-30 Pops thruout the FA for this possibility. Temps this period will remain above normal, with daytime highs in the 80s and nighttime lows in the 60s to around 70 along the immediate coast due to onshore flow across SSTs in the 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Although some rounds of moisture transported in NEly low-level flow will bring some clouds to mainly coastal areas today. CIGs should remain above any critical thresholds with VFR conditions to prevail today and tonight. Mixing could lead to some gusts to 20-25 kts during the day, especially at KILM, KCRE, and KMYR 14-21z time- frame. Extended Outlook...VFR conditions are expected to prevail. May have some patchy fog over the weekend with rain chances returning at the coast. && .MARINE... Through tonight...High pressure ridging southward into the Carolinas and lingering swells from Imelda will maintain Small Craft Advisory conditions through tonight. The center of the high will slowly migrate southward but the pressure gradient will only weaken slightly by late tonight. Spectral buoy data early this morning shows multiple wave components, complicated by the dominant NEly 6-8 sec waves and the masked 10-11 sec Ely swells from Imelda. Rough seas will persist today into tonight given little change to the NEly fetch generated waves with dampening effects from the old Ely swells. Friday through Monday...SCA conditions ongoing due to the tightened sfc pg from the strong high ridging across the Carolinas. The gradient progged tighter over SC Waters when compared to the NC waters producing NE winds 15 to 25 kt becoming more E to ESE Sat night thru Mon. Overall, the hier speeds across the SC waters especially Sun/Mon. Degrading back swell from the departed tropical systems will be noticeable Fri but overall the NE-E wind driven pseudo/fresh swell at 6 to 8 second periods will become the dominate wave and top the power index. Periodically may observe scattered showers move into the local waters from offshore and possibly making it top the coast and onshore. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for east-facing beaches Thursday. Imelda and remnants of Humberto swell will intertwine along with the addition of large short period wind waves resulting from strong NE winds as synoptic high pressure ridges across the area from the north. The strong NE wind driven waves will continue through the end of the work week while the 2 tropical cyclone distinctive swell trains slowly subside. The end result will be the production of high surf (breaking wave heights around to 6 ft) through Thursday for beaches from Cape Fear northward. Minor coastal flooding during this evening`s high tide cycle remains likely for the NC Coast (6.00 ft MLLW threshold) but should remain just below thresholds for the SC Coast (7.00 ft MLLW threshold). The lower Cape Fear River, from Wilmington southward, will also observe minor coastal flooding as levels surpass the 5.50 ft MLLW threshold this evening. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ106-108. High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1246876 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:12 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 208 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 206 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 The "backdoor" frontal passage has stalled over the NE Gulf. A tightening pressure gradient will increase winds over land today, making it a little breezy with gusts up to 30 mph. Dew points will be noticeably lower with values falling into the low to mid 50s for the Tri-State region, except the SE FL Big Bend. Temperatures today will remain warm with highs in the low to mid 80s, with pockets of upper 80s to around 90 degrees along the immediate coast this afternoon. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid-60s. There is an isolated chance for spotty showers along the coast this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 206 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 The tight pressure gradient generating the gusty winds up to 25 mph will continue to hold in place through the weekend. During the day on Saturday, an inverted trough appears to move across the NE Gulf, allowing moisture advection with increasing dew points. PWATs increasing to be above 2 inches, and enough forcing to generate scattered PoPs of 50%-70% for Sunday and Monday. Upper level ridging begins to build back in by Tuesday, lowering our rain chances through the rest of the period. Afternoon high temperatures during the period will generally be in the mid-80s. Overnight low temperatures will be in upper 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 107 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VFR through the period. Northeast winds around 10 knots overnight will become gusty during the day with speeds of 18-22 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 206 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Winds and seas are on the rise. A cold front stalling over the waters will cause a tightening pressure gradient that will have northeasterly winds at Advisory level, 20-25 kts, with gusts around 30 kts through the weekend. Seas are expected to rise to 5-8 feet with occasional 9-foot waves in our western offshore waters. Showers and thunderstorms are likely, mainly in our offshore waters, through the weekend. Winds and seas will begin to relax at the start of the work week as the center of the surface high to our north shifts to the east. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 206 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Between high pressure to our north and a stalled cold front to our south, a tightening pressure gradient will increase our winds over land for the next few days. Transport winds will be easterly/northeasterly at around 15-25 mph through the weekend. Drier air will also be filtering into the Tri-State region with dew points in the 50s for our Georgia and Alabama districts. MinRH will generally range from the low 30s% in AL and GA, with 40s% in Florida today, with gradually increasing values through the rest of the week into the weekend. Dispersions will be fair to moderate through the period with pockets of high dispersions throughout for the next few days. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 206 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Rainfall amounts this weekend are expected to range from about a half-inch up to about an inch. Although any rain is beneficial, with local rivers flowing below normal, this will not be enough to cause any hydro concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 85 67 84 68 / 10 0 10 0 Panama City 87 68 85 69 / 20 0 10 10 Dothan 83 63 82 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 82 64 83 66 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 84 67 83 67 / 0 0 10 0 Cross City 87 68 86 69 / 20 10 40 10 Apalachicola 84 70 83 71 / 30 10 30 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Sunday for GMZ730- 751-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1246875 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 157 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Dangerous marine and beach conditions continue through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Life-threatening rip currents, high surf with the potential for 6-9 foot breaking waves, and beach erosion expected. - A more active weather pattern develops late this week and will last through the weekend. - Heavy downpours with enhanced rainfall rates will be possible on Thursday and Friday which could lead to the potential for localized flooding along the east coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 An active pattern begins to set up for South Florida today as breezy ENE winds near the surface continue to sustain moisture advection over the region, and an upper level trough is forecast to slide eastward across the Florida peninsula. The combination of these factors will help support scattered showers and thunderstorms developing throughout the day today, generally moving south- southwest. Some of these storms could bring heavy rain and gusty winds, and localized street flooding could be possible with any heavy downpours. Portions of the Palm Beach and Broward county metro areas will be under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding today. The trough will eventually open up as it moves over the Atlantic late tonight, but conditions are forecast to remain unsettled as guidance shows a mid-level low potentially developing over the Bahamas. This would help enhance rainfall chances and coverage overnight and into Friday, especially for areas along the immediate coast, and over the local Atlantic waters. The 00Z HREF 24-hour precip probabilities capture this scenario pretty well, with a handful of spots along the East Coast showing 40-50% chance of exceeding 2" of rain, and a few even showing 30-40% of exceeding 4 inches over the same time period. To that effect, WPC has placed southeast FL under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding. Slightly lower temperatures forecast through the short term period given greater cloud coverage and convective activity. Highs will top out in the upper 80s and low 90s, while overnight lows will stay in the low to mid 70s across the whole area. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 By Saturday, the aforementioned mid-level low is forecast to begin lifting northward, but it`s influence will still be felt across South Florida, where conditions will remain wet and unsettled through the weekend. Rounds of scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon, with POPs in the 50-70% range. Best chances are forecast to be constrained north of Alligator Alley. Surface high will being to build across the area early next week, signaling a return to the more routine summertime regime of easterly winds and afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the interior and southwest. High temperatures through the extended period will generally reach the low 90s, with overnight lows in the low-mid 70s across the interior and up to the upper 70s along the coasts. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions will be likely through the period as repeated rounds of SHRA move along the East Coast today. Breezy easterly-northeasterly winds will prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A moderate northeasterly breeze is expected across the local waters for the rest of the week. Hazardous seas are expected to continue for the Atlantic waters over the next few days as ongoing swell continues behind Hurricane Imelda. Seas will range from 6-9 feet today and are expected to rise further for Friday and this weekend. Additionally, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic waters and the northern Gulf waters through late Friday night. && .BEACHES... Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Fresh onshore flow and elevated swell behind Hurricane Imelda will result in a high risk of rip currents and high surf heights (for Palm Beach county beaches) through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 88 75 85 75 / 70 60 70 60 West Kendall 88 75 85 74 / 70 50 70 50 Opa-Locka 88 75 85 75 / 70 60 70 60 Homestead 87 75 85 75 / 60 50 70 60 Fort Lauderdale 86 75 84 75 / 70 70 70 60 N Ft Lauderdale 87 75 84 75 / 70 70 70 60 Pembroke Pines 88 75 87 76 / 70 60 70 60 West Palm Beach 85 75 84 75 / 80 70 70 60 Boca Raton 87 74 85 75 / 70 70 70 60 Naples 90 74 88 74 / 80 40 70 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ168-172-173. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ168. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-670. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ651-671. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Saturday for GMZ656-676. && $$ |
| #1246873 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 146 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Hurricane Imelda and the remnants of Humberto are moving to the northeast and farther away from ENC but will continue to bring coastal impacts to the area through late week due to their respective swells. High pressure will build from the NE into the weekend bringing a prolonged period of NE to E winds with seasonable temperatures and generally dry conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 115 AM Thursday... Key Messages: - Gusty NE winds continue - Coastal impacts continue (see coastal flood section) Hurricane Imelda and the remnants of Humberto continue to move northeast and away from ENC. Over land, a surface high is centered over Quebec and is expanding south across the eastern US. Cloudy skies generally along and east of hwy 17, becoming more clear to the west. This is expected to continue through the night, allowing for areas west of 17 to be the coldest spots tonight, in the low 50s. Elsewhere, cloud cover will act as a blanket, and lows will be in the upper 50s to around 60. The gradient between the offshore systems and the strengthening high will remain tight, which will keep NE winds breezy across the FA. Winds will be strongest along the OBX and Downeast Carteret with gusts up to 35 mph in the afternoon today. With drier high pressure building in from the north, a rain free forecast continues with enough breaks in the clouds for us to see the sun again. This airmass change has brought a noticeable difference in humidity with fcst dewpoints into the 50s this afternoon. High temps in the mid 70s for most. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 115 AM Thursday... Key Messages: - Gusty NE winds continue - Coastal impacts continue (see coastal flood section) Dry weather continues tonight, with the NE winds continuing to gradually lessen. This in turn gradually lessens our coastal flooding concerns tonight. See Coastal Flooding section for more information. Tonight partly cloudy skies are expected with lows in the 50s once again. Wind should remain elevated enough to preclude any fog concerns. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 AM Thursday...Sfc high pressure will be centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast while upper ridging builds across the Eastern CONUS into early next week. NE winds continue Friday into Saturday, then veer to Ely as the sfc high migrates off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Generally dry weather is expected for most area although a coastal trough offshore may produce a few showers across the coastal waters. Some guidance continues to show some of these showers working their way toward the coast. Temps will be a few degrees below normal through the week with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Temps warm to near normal over the weekend and early next week with highs around 80/lower 80s. By the middle of next week, the upper ridge breaks down as a strong northern stream trough digs into the Northern Plains and Midwest with sfc high pressure migrating farther offshore and sfc cold front approaching from the NW bringing increasing chances of showers across the region. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 120 AM Thursday...Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through the period. A pinched pressure gradient between the high pressure building in from the north and offshore Imelda will bring wind gusts back up to 15-20 kt in the afternoon. Low clouds 4-5 kft will linger through the period, with a 20-40% chance of brief MVFR cigs as low as 2 kft in the morning hours today where the cloud deck has already set up as of 120am. TEMPO groups exist for EWN, ISO, and PGV to handle this potential. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 130 AM Thursday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the long term with high pressure building in from the northeast. NE to E will be less than 15 kt through the period. Cannot rule out patchy late night fog toward the end of the week when winds will be weaker and low levels decouple overnight. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 125 AM Thursday... Key Messages: - Treacherous marine conditions through the period Latest obs show NE winds 15-25 kt gusting 25-34 kt and seas 9-14 ft at 11-13 seconds. With the pressure gradient tight between high pressure building from the north and offshore Hurricane Imelda and the remnants of Humberto, conditions will remain dangerous through tonight despite the gradually lessening winds. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all waters except the Pamlico/Pungo rivers today. As winds continue decreasing once we get into tonight, inland sounds/rivers SCA headlines should gradually drop. Coastal waters will remain in SCA due to lingering seas however. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 1 AM Thursday... Key Message - Gradually improving marine conditions through the long term but elevated seas will keep Small Craft Advisories across the coastal waters into early next week. High pressure building in from the north will bring NE winds around 10-20 kt on Friday. The high migrates offshore over the weekend with winds becoming easterly around 15 kt or less. Seas around 6-12 ft on Friday will slowly subside through the long term, however seas as high as 6-7 ft expected to keep SCA conditions across the coastal waters through Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 130 AM Thursday...Long period swell and strong NE winds are causing minor to moderate coastal flooding along the OBX and this will continue through Friday. Strong NE winds will lead to minor coastal flooding for soundside areas adj to the southern Pamlico Sound, Neuse/Bay/Pamlico Rivers through tonight. CF Warnings and Advisories remain in effect as water levels will remain elevated. Oceanside...The forecast remains on track as long period swell from Humberto and Imelda continuing to impact the beaches late this week bringing dangerous rip currents, large breaking waves, ocean overwash, coastal flooding, and wave runup impacts. Most significant impacts continue to be across portions of the OBX near Hatteras Island and Ocracoke where 2 to 3 ft AGL of inundation is possible through Friday given weakened dune structures across the area. 1 to 2 ft of inundation is possible across oceanside Crystal Coast and NOBX. The strong NEerly winds due to the strong high pressure may exacerbate the issues brought on from the strong swell. High Surf Advisories remain north of Cape Lookout for rough surf and beach erosion. Soundside...Prolonged period of strong NE winds will lead to water level rises through tonight. 1-2 ft of inundation is expected along the southern Pamlico Sound, Neuse/Bay and Pamlico/Pungo rivers. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for NCZ080-094- 194. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 199. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-199- 203>205. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ196-204-205. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ196-203>205. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ203. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 230-231. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ152-154-156-158. && $$ |
| #1246870 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1232 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Dry conditions continue one more day. Continue to use caution when working with open flame or equipment that can cause sparks and start a fire. - Rain chances rise on Friday into the weekend when moisture deepens enough to allow for some isolated seabreeze showers/storms along the coast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Forecast is still on track as drier conditions persist for one more day. Slim to none rain chances still anticipated today with relative humidity dropping to 29-40 percent during the afternoon hours. These conditions with the presence of dry vegetation & fuels will bring another day of enhanced fire weather concerns across the area. Low wind speeds and gusts are still expected to inhibit the spread of fires, making for easier containment thus mitigating the fire weather danger. Still, use caution when working with open flames, and be mindful of equipment which could create sparks. Ridging should still build over the Plains on Friday while easterly flow develops near the surface from a coastal trough over the Gulf. This will tighten the pressure gradient over the waters, resulting in a rise in winds and seas. In addition, moisture advection will strengthen, resulting in a daily risk of showers/storms. Initially these rain chances will be restricted to more coastal locations south of I-10, but as this moisture builds next week, we could see rain chances reach further inland. Still, the best chances for any showers/storms throughout this period of the forecast will be along the coast and over the waters. Temperatures will be generally above normal throughout the forecast period (3-10 degrees or so), with highs ranging from the upper 80s to mid/lower 90s. 03 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025 Seabreeze is situated from Sugarland to the I-10 corridor across the Houston area. Not confident it`ll make it all the way up to IAH before sunset, but if it does wind directions may temporarily become a bit more southeasterly there for a few hours than what is indicated in the 0z TAF package (110 degrees). Regardless, speeds will quickly diminish after sunset and become more variable in direction overnight...probably trend n/ne later tonight and in the morning. Rest of the fcst is one of persistence with VFR conditions prevailing. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Light sea breeze, land breeze driven winds are expected today. Afterwards, a coastal trough will set up a long easterly fetch with winds of around 15-20 knots gusting to 25 knots offshore. This will usher in seas of 4 to 7 feet as well, prompting caution flags on Friday and Saturday. Small Craft Advisories could be needed during this period as well. These easterly winds will also enable water levels to reach somewhere between 3.0-3.7 ft MLLW at high tide. Around this time, scattered showers and storms will return to the forecast. Rain chances should then rise over the waters heading into next week. 03 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Active burn bans in SE Texas: Houston (New), Madison, Colorado, and Wharton counties. Dry conditions continue today with afternoon RH values dropping to 29-40% for inland areas. Observed 10 hour fuel moisture across SE Texas shows many areas below the 25th and 10th percentiles, with isolated spots in our west/northwestern counties below the 3rd percentile. These locations will be most prone to wildfires, though once again low wind speeds and gusts should aid in any firefighting/containment efforts. Still, much of SE Texas remains vulnerable to wildfires due to the dry conditions today. Those preforming land clearing should exercise caution, ensuring any fires are contained and have contingency plans should they grow out of control. Individuals should be mindful of equipment that could create unintended sparks, (i.e. loose chains) especially in areas with flammable surfaces. Easterly flow and rising moisture on Friday will lead to improved rain chances over the weekend. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 93 68 91 66 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 93 72 91 70 / 0 0 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 90 77 87 77 / 0 20 40 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1246869 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:39 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 127 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in from mid to late week with cooler and drier weather returning. A warm-up is expected heading into the weekend, with dry conditions continuing through next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 740 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Continued breezy along the coast tonight and Thursday, but otherwise pleasant conditions are expected. Latest sfc analysis depicted ~1032mb high pressure centered over QB this evening, extending S into the northern Mid- Atlantic region. Meanwhile, Hurricane Imelda is tracking ENE well off the Carolina coast. This is creating a strong pressure gradient with a NE wind gusting up to 25-35 mph toward and along the coast. Surface high pressure builds S tonight as Imelda moves farther out to sea. Clearing and decoupling should allow lows to drop into the mid/upper 40s over the Piedmont tonight, with upper 40s/lower 50s for the I-95 corridor and interior coastal plain, and upper 50s/lower 60s along the coast where a 10-15 mph NE wind and cloud cover will persist overnight. High pressure remains ~1032mb and becomes centered near Cape Cod Thursday. Partly cloudy skies with high temperatures around 70F are expected. Additionally, breezy conditions continue along the coast with a NE wind gusting to 20-25 mph, but overall, less wind than today. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Near to below average temperatures and pleasant conditions Friday and Saturday. Cooler temperatures will continue Thursday night into Friday as the high continues to pump in a modified continental airmass across the region. Decent radiational cooling conditions are expected away from the coast Thursday night with lows dropping into the mid/upper 40s, with mid 50s to near 60F at the coast. Highs Friday will primarily be in the lower to mid 70s. Surface high pressure settles off the Mid-Atlantic coast Friday night into Saturday. Lows drop into the mid 40s to around 50F inland early Saturday morning with mid 50s to around 60F at the coast. Highs Saturday moderate into the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 344 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Warming temperatures expected later this weekend into early next week. High pressure will remain dominant through the remainder of the weekend, but temperatures will slowly moderate as an amplified mid-upper level ridge gradually slides over the East Coast. Highs Sunday warm into the mid/upper 70s after morning lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Even warmer Monday and Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Milder overnight lows are forecast Sunday night through Tuesday night as low-level moisture gradually increases. Although the air mass will become modified, dry conditions are anticipated as high pressure remains in place across the region. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 126 AM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions prevail at all terminals early this morning. Mostly clear skies will continue, with potentially a SCT cloud deck moving across ECG/PHF/ORF over the next few hours. Later this morning, SCT CIGs will likely expand to the remainder of the terminals, with intermittent MVFR CIGs possible. Confidence is low in any lowered MVFR CIGs, so have left them out of the TAFs for now. Winds will gradually decrease today, with gusts up to 15-25 kts (mainly at the coastal terminals) through the afternoon before gusts drop off in the evening. Primarily VFR conditions are anticipated through Friday with the potential for some fog Friday night into Sat morning across a portion of the area (best chance across the Piedmont). && .MARINE... As of 255 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - SCAs in effect for all coastal waters due to elevated NE winds and seas of 5-10ft. Gale warnings have been cancelled. - Gradually improving conditions through the early weekend, then pleasant conditions expected into early next week. Afternoon sfc analysis and satellite imagery show tropical system Imelda well offshore to the SE and strong high pressure building in from the N. NE winds are elevated due to the pressure gradient between these features as well as CAA over the warm waters. Latest obs indicate winds over coastal waters and the mouth of the bay are at ~25kt with gusts to 30kt. Since obs have been under gale warning thresholds for a few hours, all Gale Warnings have been cancelled and replaced with Small Craft Advisories. Over the bay, Currituck sound, and rivers, winds are ~20kt with gusts to 25kt. SCAs are still in effect for these waters. Seas are 10-12ft based on latest buoy obs, waves 2-4ft. Remaining breezy overnight and into tomorrow, though not as windy as today. Expecting the NE winds to be down to 15-20kt in the bay and 20-23kt over the coastal waters by Thurs morning. Winds are quicker to diminish Thursday night into Friday as that high pressure really settles in. Winds should be down to 10-15kt by late Thurs night, then 5-10kt by Friday evening. Seas will be slower to diminish due to the persistent onshore flow and lingering swell from the offshore tropical systems. Expecting seas upwards of 9ft in the coastal zones Thurs evening and 5-7ft Friday morning. Will likely see 5ft+ seas for a good chunk of the weekend. For this reason, did go ahead and set the end time of the coastal water SCAs to Saturday morning with extensions possible. Much more pleasant conditions expected late in the weekend and early next week with high pressure remaining in control. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 900 PM EDT Wednesday... Tidal anomalies have risen to 1-2 feet above astronomical tides this evening, with widespread minor flooding being observed across the Chesapeake Bay, tidal rivers, and Atlantic coast. Localized moderate flooding is occurring at Jamestown and may occur at Bishop`s Head/Lewisetta/Tappahannock later this evening and again with the early morning high tide cycle. Added a Coastal Flood Advisory for the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore (through 4 AM Friday AM). Water levels are expected to crest at ~3.7 ft MLLW at Cambridge, Bishop`s Head, and Crisfield with the late evening high tide cycle. Otherwise, have maintained a Coastal Flood Warning over the upper tidal James with Coastal Flood Advisories in most other tidal locations. Water levels gradually fall across the ocean and lower bay later tonight, Thursday, and Thursday night...but remain steady or rise a bit in the upper bay as winds decrease and water becomes trapped. Advisories have been extended until Thursday night for most of the bay except Accomack/Northampton Counties. Mainly nuisance flooding is expected on the Atlantic coast with subsequent high tides, so not anticipating the need for additional advisories here (although statements are possible). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for MDZ021>023. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for VAZ075>078- 522. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ082- 084>086-089-090-093-523. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ083- 518-520. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095>098-524-525. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632- 638. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ |
| #1246868 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1229 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1227 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Hazardous beach conditions this weekend becoming more likely due to minor coastal flooding. - Increased risk of dangerous swimming conditions due to rip currents this weekend. Please use caution at the beach! - Daily low to medium (20-50%) chance of showers and storms Friday into early next week. When thunder roars, go indoors! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 We`ll start off today mainly dry across the area with only a very low (10%) chance of showers/storms along the seabreeze over the inland Coastal Plains this afternoon as moisture starts to increase. A broad mid-level low over the northern Gulf Coast will sag southwest into the northwestern Gulf this weekend, then slowly move westward into Mexico early next week before a mid-level ridge dominates over the southern Great Plains the middle of next week. Being in the vicinity of the mid-level low will induce mid-level lift support and increase moisture to near the 75th percentile with PWATs (1.5-1.75"). This combination in addition to surface heating and the afternoon seabreeze, will allow for a low to medium (20-50%) chance of showers and thunderstorms daily beginning Friday and continuing into early next week. Greatest chances will remain over the open waters, coast, and along the seabreeze. Our main concerns will remain focused on dangerous swimming conditions and hazardous beach conditions this weekend, with minor coastal flooding becoming more likely and an increased risk of rip currents. Although ensemble uncertainty (10-90th percentile) remains quite high between 1.7-2.0ft MSL at Aransas Pass, there are several factors in play: astronomical high tide approaching with a full moon phase, swell periods around 8 seconds, and moderate northeasterly winds inducing the Ekman transport mechanism. Please use caution if going to the beach! && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period across the region. There`s a low (10%) chance for fog and reduced VSBYs at ALI from around 10Z-13Z but confidence is low so have left out of TAF. Winds expected to remain light and variable for most of the period becoming east/southeast by around 00Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A light to gentle northeasterly to easterly breeze (BF 2-3) will continue through Thursday night before increasing to a moderate to strong breeze (BF 4-6) Friday and continuing through Saturday evening, hovering around advisory criteria. Winds are expected to decrease to a gentle to moderate breeze (BF 3-4) Sunday with winds shifting east to southeasterly early next week. Low shower and thunderstorm chances return Thursday night, then increase to a medium to high, 50-80% chance this weekend. Medium rain chances of 30-50% will persist heading into the middle of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Afternoon minimum relative humidity will generally range from 25-35% across the Inland Coastal Plains and Brush Country through Friday. Moisture increases Saturday into early next week with minimum relative humidity above 30%. Although Energy Release Component ranges from 50th-90th percentile, weak surface and 20 ft winds will limit the fire risk. Slightly above normal temperatures will continue with low to medium (20-50%) shower and thunderstorm chances Friday and continuing into the middle of next week, mainly along the afternoon seabreeze over the inland Coastal Plains and along the coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 92 72 90 74 / 0 0 40 20 Victoria 94 68 92 67 / 10 0 30 10 Laredo 96 72 96 71 / 0 0 10 0 Alice 95 68 93 69 / 10 0 30 10 Rockport 91 74 89 75 / 0 10 50 30 Cotulla 97 70 96 70 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 93 68 91 71 / 10 0 40 20 Navy Corpus 88 77 87 78 / 10 10 50 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1246867 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1218 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1214 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Rain and storm chances slowly increase today and Friday with better chances this weekend. - Winds and seas will increase today through this weekend leading to Small Craft Advisory conditions. - Minor coastal flooding along east facing shores of southeast LA, including portions of the tidal lakes, and Hancock, MS county expected Friday and into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Hurricane Imelda is well off the Atlantic Coast near Bermuda, and will likely become extratropical during the morning. Troughing to the west of Imelda extended into southern Alabama, while ridging extended from the central Great Lakes into Texas. A shortwave was moving through the northern Plains States. The weak troughing to the west of Imelda will gradually orient east- west across the northern Gulf Coast today and Friday. It doesn`t appear that there will be a well defined surface low pressure center, but there will be a mid-level circulation. With strong high pressure centered over New England, this will produce a tighter pressure gradient, with somewhat stronger easterly winds. This will be especially true offshore, where easterly winds will increase to 20 knots by midday and continue through Friday. This will gradually pile up water on east facing shorelines that could begin to produce minor coastal flooding issues during the high tide cycle toward sunrise Friday and again late Friday night. Current indications are that tidal flooding of 1 to 2 feet above normally dry ground could occur in areas prone to coastal flooding. A Coastal Flood Advisory may be issued later today. Precipitable water values could be approaching the 75th percentile south of Interstate 10 over the next 36 hours, but are likely to be between the 25th and 50th percentile across the northwest half of the area. With the troughing in place, that should allow the development of scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two from about the Interstate 10 corridor southward as early as this afternoon, but moreso late tonight and Friday. Any heavy rain through Friday is expected to remain offshore. High temperatures today probably won`t be much different than Wednesday afternoon, upper 80s to near 90 in most areas. More mid and high level clouds, as well as some precipitation, will likely hold highs in the lower and middle 80s from the Interstate 10 corridor southward, and upper 80s across northwest portions of the area on Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 The upper troughing looks to remain in place near the coast through at least the weekend. There may be a bit more of a weak surface low pressure reflection over the Gulf this weekend, before it moves west of the area by Monday. Moisture levels are expected to remain above normal (median is about 1.4 inches) south of the Interstate corridor through the weekend, and could overspread the entire area for a period Saturday night and Sunday. Precipitable water values could peak out around 2 inches on Sunday, around the 90th percentile. If there is a favored day for heavy rain, it would probably be Sunday, with rain chances in the 50 to 70 percent range for most of the area. Some of that could linger into Monday. Cumulatively, some areas south of a Gulfport-New Orleans-Houma line could see 2-4 inches of rain or more through Monday. Most of that area would be able to tolerate that much, assuming it doesn`t fall in a short time over an urban area. And in some areas, the rain would be welcome, as September was rather dry with isolated exceptions. The column begins to dry out on Monday as weak mid level ridging builds in along the northern Gulf Coast. May not dry out enough to completely remove precipitation from the forecast, but at least enough to carry lower rain chances even south of the Interstate corridor Tuesday and Wednesday. The coastal flood threat could continue through Saturday into Sunday morning`s high tide cycle before winds diminish enough to reduce the threat. Additionally, the astronomical tide ranges will be diminishing beginning Saturday. High temperatures over the weekend, while being somewhat cooler than the last few days, will still be near to above normal (normal 82- 86F). As the column dries out early next week, highs could bump back up to the upper 80s to around 90. The moist airmass will hold overnight lows a bit above normal though. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Mainly VFR conditions through the forecast period. Isolated SHRA have stubbornly held on this evening over southwest Mississippi and near the west end of Lake Pontchartrain. Localized smoke or fog at KASD at observation time and will carry MVFR visibility for a few hours. Better chances for precipitation will be during the afternoon hours near the coast, and will mention the potential for thunder with PROB30. May be a brief break toward sunset, but most guidance is indicating at least isolated SHRA during the late evening and overnight hours into Friday morning for most terminals with the exception of KBTR and KMCB. Any precipitation will have the potential to produce brief MVFR ceilings/visibilities. && .MARINE... Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A low pressure system in the northern Gulf will lead to rougher conditions across the coastal waters for the next few days. The pressure gradient will increase over the coastal waters, and this will allow for an easterly wind to increase to around 20 knots this afternoon. These winds will persist through Sunday as strong high pressure remains over New England and weak low pressure drifts westward across the Gulf. A fairly long fetch across the eastern Gulf will allow produce a decent swell, and this will combine with the wind waves to produce higher seas of up to 9 feet over the open Gulf waters. The gradient should weaken by the end of the weekend, with high pressure building in early next week. Due to the rough conditions expected, the Small Craft Advisory has been expanded to include all of the open Gulf waters, as well as the sounds and Lake Borgne through Saturday evening. The advisory may need extended beyond Saturday evening in later forecasts. Lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas will probably need Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines overnight into Friday, and eventually into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 88 64 85 64 / 10 0 0 0 BTR 90 68 86 67 / 10 0 10 0 ASD 88 64 85 65 / 20 20 20 10 MSY 86 73 82 73 / 20 20 30 20 GPT 86 67 84 68 / 30 20 20 10 PQL 86 64 84 66 / 30 10 10 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight CDT Saturday night for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575- 577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight CDT Saturday night for GMZ534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1246866 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:30 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1216 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Now through Wednesday... An upper level trough organizes over the north-central and northeastern Gulf coast into the weekend. As Imelda and Humberto, located off the East coast, move off, a weak surface ridge over the Appalachians strengthens and builds south over the Southeast, creating a tight pressure gradient along the northern Gulf coast the rest of the week through the weekend. Most of the forecast area will be rain free as drier northerly air moves south over the Southeast on the west side of the surface ridge, the exception being along and south of the coast. A combination of better moisture levels, strong low level dynamics in the strong easterly flow, along with several easterly waves passing south of the Gulf coast, and added upper weakness from the upper trough comes together allowing for daily showers and thunderstorms to form. A building upper ridge over the East coast will shift the upper trough westward Sunday into the coming week. The surface ridge over the Appalachians rotates clockwise in response, allowing Gulf moisture to move further inland (guidance is advertising precipitable h20 values rising over 2" over most of the forecast area by Monday). Precipitation returns forecast area-wide Sunday on in response. High temperatures well above seasonal norms Thursday (mid to upper 80s) drop through the rest of the week into the weekend before bottoming out on Sunday (low to mid 80s), with its best chance of rain this forecast. High temperatures rebound early in the coming week as upper subsidence increases from the building East Coast upper ridge. Low temperatures remain above seasonal norms, with the coolest night being Thursday night, ranging from the upper 50s well north of Highway 84 to upper 60s along the coast. The increasing moisture levels, then increasing upper subsidence, will bring low temperatures ranging from the the mid 60s to near 70 north of I-10 t low 70s south to the coast. Increasing easterly flow along the northern Gulf coast will bring a High Risk of Rip Currents Thursday through the weekend. /16 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Thursday evening although cannot rule out some isolated convection near the coast Thursday afternoon. Light northeasterly (or calm) winds overnight become easterly around 10 knots on Thursday. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A surface ridge builds south over the Appalachians into the weekend, bringing moderate to strong easterly winds to near shore and open Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for Thursday through the weekend, with a possibility of being extended longer. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 64 84 66 85 69 83 69 85 / 0 0 10 20 30 50 30 50 Pensacola 67 84 70 85 72 83 72 84 / 0 10 10 30 40 60 40 50 Destin 68 84 70 85 72 83 72 84 / 0 10 10 30 40 60 40 50 Evergreen 59 85 62 86 67 85 68 86 / 0 0 0 10 10 40 20 40 Waynesboro 60 83 62 84 66 83 68 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 10 30 Camden 59 82 62 84 66 83 67 84 / 0 0 0 0 10 30 20 30 Crestview 61 84 64 84 68 84 68 86 / 0 0 0 20 20 50 30 50 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Monday afternoon for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Monday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$ |
| #1246865 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1218 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025 High pressure gradually gives way to low pressure from the Gulf working westward into Texas into late next week. As moisture increases off the Gulf, expect diurnal rain chances to increase this weekend, working inland with the sea breeze each afternoon. Generally a medium (40 to 60) percent chance of rain is expected through the period, with the lowest POPs on Sunday and Monday. ECMWF and NAM PWATs surge above normal by this weekend, with GFS PWATs closer to normal for early October. Either way, with little wind or flow, expect any showers or thunderstorms that develop to be slow-moving and capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, especially along and east of US 77 this weekend and along and east of US 281 by mid week. Seasonal to slightly above normal temperatures are expected through Wednesday with rainfall or cloud cover stifling highs at any locations where activity persists during prime daytime heating hours. Patchy fog may develop across the ranchlands each night. A moderate risk of rip currents along the lower Texas coast likely returns by this weekend, with an increasing swell and period along the western Gulf due to persistent easterly flow. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VFR is expected at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours, with light winds and clear to partly cloudy skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025 Generally favorable winds and seas lead into the start of the weekend, with an increasing easterly swell by the end of the weekend bringing a chop to coastal and offshore waters. Brief SCEC conditions are possible beyond 20 nm late Saturday into Sunday. The chance of showers and thunderstorms returns Thursday night and persists through the forecast period, especially offshore, as low pressure slowly works westward across the Gulf. Waterspouts may develop near any showers or thunderstorms this weekend and next week, especially offshore. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 74 91 75 90 / 10 50 40 60 HARLINGEN 69 92 71 90 / 0 40 20 60 MCALLEN 72 96 74 94 / 0 20 10 40 RIO GRANDE CITY 69 96 70 95 / 0 10 10 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 86 79 85 / 10 50 60 60 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 88 74 87 / 10 50 40 60 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ |
| #1246864 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 102 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend across the region into Sunday. A warm front will lift north through the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... High pressure will build in from the north through tonight. Drier air will advect in with PWats expected to drop below an inch over most locations by daybreak. Some wind could linger overnight but otherwise expect dry and quiet conditions through the remainder of the period. Low temperatures will range from the mid/upper 50s inland to low/mid 60s closer to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Subtle upper-level troughing left in the wake of both Hurricanes Humberto and Imelda will linger across the Southeast U.S. into Saturday as weak/pseudo Rex configuration evolves over the eastern CONUS. Surface high pressure centered over New England looks to maintain the wedge across the Carolinas and Georgia with some enhancement likely as an upper-level anticyclone forms over the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic helping to reinforce the confluent flow across the Northeast States. This will keep seasonable temperatures in place through the rest of the week. An enhanced pressure gradient associated with the wedge itself will keep breezy conditions mostly confined to the beaches where east to northeast winds will persist. Precipitation wise, models are likely struggling with resolving any marine-based shower activity moving onshore in the east/northeast low-level flow as they typically overdevelop the usual closed-cell stratocumulus field associated with these type of flow regimes. This is especially apparent in the 01/12z GFS 3-6 hr QPF fields where transient and splotchy patterns are observed over the Atlantic offshore waters. There will likely be some degree of shower activity, but there is low confidence in its timing and coverage. Guidance does show impulses moving across portions of Florida and interacting with an old frontal boundary by Saturday. This may help enhance rain chances to the south with the local area positioned along the far northern fringes of this area of enhanced rainfall, especially over Southeast Georgia. Given the expected low-level flow regime and the relatively dry airmass in place with the inland wedge, the best rain chances will remain confined to the coastal counties and beaches with chances increasing through the weekend due to expanding activity over the Florida peninsula. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The region will become positioned between an upper level high to the east and northeast with an upper low over the northwest Gulf. The coastal trough offshore will gradually move north as a warm front early in the week. The increasingly moist flow atop the inland wedge followed by the warm front will support an increasing risk for showers/tstms, some of which could become locally heavy as PWATs surge to near 2". The model QPF footprint remains highest along Georgia coast where some flooding of mainly low-lying and poor drainage areas could occur, especially should rains fall during the already elevated high tides. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 06Z TAFs: VFR. Gusty NE winds are expected to start around daybreak Thursday. Winds should settle between 10 to 15 kts this evening by 1Z. Extended Aviation Outlook: There are no high confidence concerns. The risk for restrictions from showers/tstms will increase this weekend into early next week for all terminals. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: Elevated northeast winds will persist, with a good surge expected overnight as strong high pressure builds from the north. Winds should peak in the 20-25 knot range, with gusts up to around 30 kt. Seas will build to around 5-8 feet in the nearshore waters by daybreak, and 8-10 feet beyond in the outer Georgia waters. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all waters outside of the Charleston Harbor where gusts should remain shy of criteria. Thursday through Monday: The pressure gradient is forecast to pinch even more Thursday into Thursday night as the inland wedge strengthens. This should push northeast winds into the 25-30 kt range with frequent gusts 35-40 kt. A Gale Watch has been posted for all legs with the exception of the Charleston Habor from Thursday afternoon through roughly daybreak Friday. The gradient looks to relax slightly Friday and into the weekend as the coastal trough offshore draws a bit closer. This should still keep hazardous conditions in place, but winds should be more solidly in the Small Craft Advisory range. Seas will peak 6-9 ft nearshore waters and 9- 11 ft offshore waters Thursday night before diminishing over the weekend, but still above 6 ft Rip Currents/High Surf: The high rip current risk has been extended into Friday due to lingering swells and stiff winds. As seas build Thursday into Thursday night due a tightening pressure gradient, NWPS breaking wave guidance shows breaking waves in the surf zone will reach 4-7 ft once again. The High Surf Advisory has been maintained through early Saturday morning as a result. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As astronomical tides increase this week, the risk for minor coastal flooding will increase for Charleston and Coastal Colleton Counties during the afternoon high tide cycles. A Coastal Flood Advisory could eventually be needed for Thursday afternoon. Heading into this weekend and early next week, astronomical tides will increase due to the upcoming Full Moon (Oct 7) and Perigee (Oct 8). This in combination with the anticipation of continued northeasterly flow will cause the possibility of coastal flooding to become more likely along the entire coastline, including both Downtown Charleston and Fort Pulaski. Saltwater inundation could then occur during both the morning and evening high tide cycles during this time. Although there is considerable uncertainty this far out, persistent favorable winds have the potential to produce up to major coastal flooding. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ117-119-139- 141. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for GAZ117-119-139- 141. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ048>051. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for SCZ048>051. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ350- 352-354-374. Gale Watch from this afternoon through late tonight for AMZ350- 352-354-374. && $$ |
| #1246862 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:15 AM 02.Oct.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 109 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025 Northeast flow will continue to prevail through tomorrow. Lower dew points will also be advected into the region from the northeast throughout the afternoon, suppressing any shower activity to nearly nil within our inland areas. Showers and thunderstorms will still be possible offshore. Fairly benign conditions overall. A tightening pressure gradient across the region will lead to gusty conditions throughout the afternoon. Expect highs generally in the 80s with lows generally in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025 As a trough continues to march offshore into the Atlantic, we`ll see surface high pressure continue to build to our north with prevailing northeast flow at the surface through the weekend. An inverted trough looks to round the base of the high and move across the northeast Gulf this weekend. This will lead to moisture advection of higher dew points back into the region with upper 60s and low 70s dews Sunday and Monday, pushing PWATs back above 2 inches. Along with the additional forcing for ascent from the shortwave/trough, we`ll possibly see our best chances for precip this weekend. Current guidance isn`t overly excited on precip amounts, we`ll have to see if any dry air aloft limits how much precip hits the surface. Expect gusty conditions as the pressure gradient tightens between the shortwave and the high pressure. By Tuesday the shortwave will depart to our northwest and high pressure once again becomes entrenched. Precip chances all decrease as a consequence. Expect daytime highs generally in the 80s with overnight lows generally in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 107 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VFR through the period. Northeast winds around 10 knots overnight will become gusty during the day with speeds of 18-22 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025 A tightening pressure gradient is expected for the upcoming few days. Advisory level winds begin tonight and continue through the weekend with winds around 20-25 kts and gusts around 30-35 kts. Seas are expected to increase and range from 5-8 ft tomorrow through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025 Transport winds will be northeasterly through the period and increasing to around 15-20 mph. Mixing heights will range from around 5000 ft to pockets of above 6000 feet. Dispersion values are expected to be good each afternoon, but higher values will be in pockets throughout districts. MinRH values will generally be in the low 40s and upper 30s percent. Minimal rainfall over the next several days maintains fire weather concerns with fuels continuing to dry out. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025 Very little in the way of rainfall is expected over the next week with about an inch expected near the Gulf Coast decreasing to around a quarter inch across SE AL and SW GA. There are currently no flooding concerns as rivers and streams run below normal. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 67 83 67 84 / 0 10 0 30 Panama City 67 85 69 86 / 0 10 10 30 Dothan 62 82 65 83 / 0 0 0 10 Albany 63 82 65 83 / 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 65 82 67 84 / 0 10 0 30 Cross City 68 85 68 86 / 0 40 10 50 Apalachicola 69 83 70 83 / 10 30 20 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Sunday for GMZ730- 751-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ |
