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| #1209192 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:57 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 851 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Strong low pressure near western CT early this morning will continue to move westward today into southern NY, then meanders east and northeast into the Canadian Maritimes through the weekend. Rains gradually decrease early this morning, with a lull in the rain for most of today, but rain chances increase again late this afternoon and tonight before pulling away into early Saturday. Considerable cloudiness for this weekend with gusty northwest winds. Brief dry weather returns on Monday. The rest of the week looks active, with one storm system around Tuesday spreading rain showers. Blustery, cooler and dry for Wednesday, then monitoring for additional storminess around Thanksgiving or Black Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 850 AM Update... * Scattered showers especially this morning but not a washout * Highs from 45 to 55 with the mildest readings in eastern MA A well developed vertically stacked system across eastern NY will gradually sink southward today. In response...a mid level dryslot has overspread the region allowing for some partial sunshine across eastern MA and RI. The cold pool aloft has resulted in some instability with the partial sunshine and allowed scattered showers to develop. There was even some graupel being reported with the activity given the cold temps aloft. Meanwhile...temps are cold enough along the highest terrain in the east slopes of the Berkshires to support some wet snow this morning. Any accums will be very minor slushy and not impactful. Otherwise...while we may continue to see hit or miss showers into the afternoon...not expecting a washout and much of the time will be dry. Another slug of more widespread rain will be working into the area by late afternoon/early evening with the greatest coverage expected across eastern MA. High temps should range from mainly the 40s across the interior...but across eastern MA and RI will probably see highs reach between 50 and 55 given the partial sunshine during the morning. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Key Messages * Another round of showers develops Friday afternoon and continues into Saturday morning * Gusty northwest winds around 35 mph expected Saturday afternoon Tonight Showers continue overnight as the aforementioned short-wave energy approaching from the southeast pivots north into The Gulf of Maine. Expect the heaviest precipitation over The Cape/Islands and east/northeastern MA. An additional 0.25 to 0.5 inches will be in the cards for these areas. Further across the interior, only expecting modest shower activity with a tenth to a quarter of an inch possible. As the surface low moves north into The Gulf of Maine, winds will shift to the north/northwest. This will advect cooler air into southern New England and support chilly temperatures tonight into tomorrow morning. In fact, the cooler air aloft may support some snow at elevations above 1500 feet in The Berkshires or northern Worcester Hills, but no significant accumulations or impacts are expected. Low temps bottom out in the low to mid 30s west of I- 495 and mid to upper 30s east of I-495. Saturday Coastal low-pressure system continues to meander over The Gulf of Maine for most of the day Saturday. This will continue to support showers across the eastern areas. Further west we should begin to see some gradually clearing as northwest flow advects drier air into the region. Air mass will be cooler with 925 hPa temps aloft close to the freezing mark. This would translate to surface high temps in the mid to upper 40s on Saturday afternoon. Of greater concern for Saturday will be the potential for gusty northwest winds. Latest model guidance has trended toward a stronger low-level jet on Saturday afternoon with 925/850 hPa wind speeds peaking between 35 and 50 knots respectively. BUFKIT soundings support momentum transfer of 35+ knots to the surface or perhaps even higher depending on the model. The tricky part of this forecast will be the determining the efficiency of mixing in the boundary layer,particularly across eastern MA where cloud cover will be more extensive. Model derived low-level lapse rates are coming in around 8 to 9 C/Km for Saturday afternoon, which would imply enough mixing to support stronger northwest wind gusts. Right now thinking 30 knots (~35 mph) gusts on Saturday afternoon will be in the cards for much of southern New England. Some locations across southeastern MA, The Cape, and Islands may even approach wind advisory criteria (40+ knot gusts, 45+ mph). Confidence in reaching those values is not high enough to warrant wind headlines at this time, but we will be monitoring this portion of the forecast closely over the next 24 hours. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Highlights: * Gradually drying out this weekend with seasonably cool temps, but with NW gusts 25-40 mph Sat night into Sun early PM. * Tranquil and seasonable Mon. * Frontal system for Tue spreads lighter showers early on Tue, then dry and blustery for Wed. * Monitoring more active weather around the Thanksgiving holiday or Black Friday, some of which could be wintry, but uncertainty is very large. Details: Saturday Night and Sunday: Strong low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will continue to slowly move ENE through the rest of the weekend. Tight NW pressure gradient will continue to drive blustery NW winds. Approach of secondary shortwave disturbance moving through Ontario SE into New England late Sat night into early on Sun will increase a NWly low- level jet, which global models indicate ~40-45 kt at 850 mb. Expect a cloudy and blustery night Sat night with gusts 25-35 mph, on the higher end of that range over the higher terrain. As mixing depth increases with a bit more in the way of sun on Sunday, we could see gusts punch into the 30-40 mph range into the early afternoon, near Advisory levels, then decreasing into the mid afternoon as the low level jet weakens. The gusty conditions will make it feel much cooler than forecast temps; lows Sat night in the mid to upper 30s may feel more like the upper 20s to near freezing with the NW breeze, and highs 45-50 on Sunday. Clearing skies will lead to a chilly Sun night with lows in the upper 20s to the lower to mid 30s, but will feel cooler with a continued NW wind around 10-15 mph. Monday: Monday likely to be the pick of the forecast with high pressure ridging in, offering full sun and a slackening wind. Modest warm advection with 925 mb temps up to around +4 to +6C brings highs into the low to mid 50s. Monday Night thru Tuesday Night: The 500 mb pattern becomes more active starting in this period, continuing into the workweek, as spokes of shortwave trough energy from the West Coast move across the CONUS. A lead shortwave moves into the Gt Lakes and Northeast region into Tue, bringing a risk for showers. However models vary on the strength of this wave with the ECMWF on the weaker side, while the GFS and Canadian are a little stronger and would offer a little more QPF. Highs around the 50s. Wednesday: Low pressure will have moved into the Maritimes early on Wed, and other than northwest breezes, early look at conditions for the biggest holiday travel day seem favorable with partly to mostly sunny conditions and highs in the 40s to near 50. Thursday/Friday: Pacific frontal system moves across the central US, leading to a developing storm system in the central Plains around Thurs. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists in the details, though there appears to be enough colder air in place to allow for some wintry weather possibilities Thurs and/or Fri, provided there is a favorable storm track. Kept PoP on the higher end of Chance but will be monitoring model developments very closely. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today: Moderate confidence. Intermittent light rains with MVFR clouds for the interior, but for RI and eastern MA, a lull in rains are expected for part of the day with SCT-BKN VFR bases and southerly gusts around 20-25 kt. Late in the day (thinking after 20z, although exact timing is still a bit uncertain), another round of steadier rains develops over the southeast waters and rotates NNW into at least eastern MA and RI by 00z. As this rain moves in, expect ceilings lowering to MVFR levels, S winds shifting to SE/E around 10-12 kt and visbys around 4-6 SM in -RA/RA. Tonight: Moderate confidence. VFR/MVFR deteriorates to MVFR/IFR ceilings at most airports, with steadier RA at 4-6 SM vsby for at least eastern MA and RI, possibly as far west as BAF/BDL but the western extent is still uncertain. Rain should pull away toward the NE after 06z. SE/E winds become NE around 10 kt thru midnight, and then NW around 5-10 kt overnight before increasing in speed to 10-15 kt by daybreak Sat. Saturday: Moderate to high confidence. BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR ceilings with slow improvement trends. Gusty NW winds around 15 kt with gusts 25-35 kt. KBOS Terminal...A few scattered showers for a couple more hours this morning. Shower activity should wane by 13Z as skies scatter out from east to west. Otherwise, VFR with S around 10-15 kt/gusts to 25 kt most of the day. Another round of rain develops after 20z with developing SE/E winds and deteriorating cigs. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. IFR/MVFR ceilings with MVFR rains on N winds initially. Abrupt windshift to SE/S 08-10z with categories trending MVFR. Otherwise, MVFR with more intermittent -RA today on S winds around 10 kt. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance RA. Sunday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Sunday Night through Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Saturday Low-pressure shift northwest away from the coastal waters today. This will support diminishing winds for this morning and tonight. Winds become more southerly today and while weaker, will still be blowing from to 10 to 20 knots. Gale force wind gusts come to an end this morning and generally become bounded by sustained winds or perhaps a few knots over (~15 knots). As the afternoon progresses, low-pressure approaching the waters from southeast of Nantucket will introduce a new round of rain along with a return to easterly winds which will shift to the north/northwest tonight into Saturday morning. Conditions begin to deteriorate again on Saturday with sustained northwest winds rising to 20 to 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots by Saturday evening. Gale Warnings will be likely for the coastal waters Saturday afternoon through most of Sunday. Seas gradually come down with winds today as well and may fall below SCY criteria overnight. This will of course will be short-lived as the gale force winds expected Saturday afternoon brings seas back to the 5 to 8 foot range over the outer marine zones. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain. Sunday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ231>234-251. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ235- 237. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ250- 254>256. && $$ |
| #1209191 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:27 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 826 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Cold front sliding down the FL Peninsula this morning with re inforcing cold and dry Canadian airmass building into the region on breezy NW winds today with cool max temps about 10 degrees below climate normals today. The cold conditions will continue into the weekend as well. Made minor adjustments to grids early this morning otherwise forecasts on track. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) VFR conditions to continue with gusty NW winds today and a few stratu cu clouds over the E Gulf waters. Winds weaken aft 00Z tonight with persistent cool and dry conditions. .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)... Issued at 423 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 A clear and chilly morning in paradise. Dry and cool airmass remains in place through the period as high pressure builds from the west. The main weather concern will be temperatures overnight dropping into the upper 30s north to around 50 degrees south beginning tonight. Afternoon highs struggle to reach 70 degrees today and especially on Saturday. Clear skies and breezy north to northwesterly winds prevail. && .LONG TERM (SUN-THU)... Issued at 423 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 High pressure remains in control during the long term. Lows on Sunday morning will still be in the upper 30s north to around 50 degrees south, however. building ridge will support a gradual warm up in temperatures. At the same time, dewpoints remain in the 40s and 50s...perfect to do outdoor activities. By mid week, highs climb back into the 80s. Winds will also decrease and marine conditions improve during the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 423 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 High pressure continues to build over the region through the next several days. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Gulf waters through early this evening. Winds will remain elevated to exercise caution levels into tonight. Pressure gradient relaxes allowing winds to drop below criteria for the weekend into early next week. Pleasant boating conditions return through the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 423 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Ridge of high pressure continues to build into the weekend with dry and cool conditions prevailing. Minimum humidity values between 35-55 percent with some areas flirting below 35 percent, especially over interior areas and the Nature Coast. Breezy north to northwesterly winds will also produce some moderate to high dispersions over the next few days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 69 49 68 50 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 73 50 70 49 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 70 42 69 42 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 71 50 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 67 38 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 69 55 68 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
| #1209190 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:24 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 822 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 807 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf The region will be between a trough to the northeast, and high pressure building from the west northwest Today. The gradient between these two features will be tight enough to produce elevated winds which will become gusty with mixing later this morning through the afternoon. Skies will be sunny through the afternoon, but continued cold advection will keep temperatures below normal. Highs today will be in the 55 to 65 degree range. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 118 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Troughing aloft will linger along the U.S. Eastern seaboard on Saturday as a double barreled low pressure system pivots slowly northward from coastal New England towards the Canadian Maritime Region. This weather pattern will keep a dry northwesterly flow pattern in place as surface ridging migrates southeastward from the lower Mississippi Valley during the morning hours towards the northern Gulf by sunset on Saturday. Plenty of sunshine and a dry air mass will be offset by cool air advection on the heels of a northwesterly breeze, keeping highs generally in the 60-65 degree range area-wide on Saturday afternoon. These values are about 4-8 degrees below late November climatology. High pressure will then settle directly over our region during the overnight hours on Saturday night, with this feature remaining in place over our region through Sunday night. This setup will allow for excellent radiational cooling across our region, with lows expected to plummet to the mid to upper 30s at most inland locations, ranging to the lower 40s along the northeast FL coast. Patchy to areas of frost will are expected to develop during the predawn and early morning hours on Sunday, especially along the U.S. Highway 301 corridor as well as southern portions of the Suwannee Valley. Flow aloft will become zonal on Sunday and Sunday night as troughing continues lifting northeastward across the Canadian Maritime Region. Sunshine, light winds and a dry air mass will allow highs to rebound to the upper 60s and lower 70s, which is close to climatology. Another night of radiational cooling will result in lows falling to the upper 30s and lower 40s at inland locations by the predawn and early morning hours on Monday, while a light southwesterly breeze overnight keeps coastal lows in the mid to upper 40s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 118 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Zonal flow aloft will continue locally through midweek as shortwave energy migrates east-northeastward from the Plains states on Monday morning across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday and Tuesday night, then pushing across New England on Wednesday. This feature will push a dry frontal boundary across the southeastern states on Tuesday, with this boundary likely stalling across our region towards midweek as support aloft pivots away from our area. A dry air mass will linger throughout our region, with plenty of sunshine boosting highs above climatology, reaching the mid and upper 70s at inland locations each day, with afternoon sea breezes likely keeping coastal highs a few degrees cooler. Another night of radiational cooling will allow lows to fall to the 45-50 degree range inland on Monday night, ranging to the 50-55 degree range at coastal locations. Lows will then gradually increase as warm air advection develops, with 50s inland and around 60s at coastal locations on Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Another trough will amplify over the Great Lakes region by Thanksgiving Day and Friday, with this feature pushing another cold front into the southeastern states and also potentially propelling a shortwave trough quickly eastward from the southern Rockies on Thursday to the Tennessee Valley by Friday. Low level southwesterly flow will begin to moisten the air mass over our area, but only isolated shower activity is currently projected across inland portions of southeast GA by model blends from Thursday afternoon through Friday at this time. Temperatures ahead of this approaching cold front will warm to the upper 70s and lower 80s by Thanksgiving Day, with above normal warmth potentially continuing into Friday for coastal southeast GA, northeast and north central FL. Lows on Thursday night will remain above average, with 50s inland and lower 60s along the Atlantic coast. Some cooling is possible across inland portions of southeast GA by Friday as the cold front progresses southeastward into our area. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 513 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period under WNW winds. After daybreak, winds increase to sustained 12-16 kts through late afternoon with gusts near 25 kts at all terminals. Winds subside continuing a WNW direction with speeds near 3-6 kts inland to 7-9 kts coast through 12z. && .MARINE... Issued at 118 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Small craft advisory conditions continue for all local waters through tonight with occasional gusts to gale force over the outer waters. Winds begin to relax into Saturday with Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions expected. Surface high pressure builds over the local waters Sunday and extends a ridge axis across the waters through mid-week next week with dry conditions and winds and seas below marine headline criteria. Rip Currents: A low-end moderate rip current risk continues for NE FL beaches today due to a lingering long-period easterly swell, with a low risk for SE GA beaches. A low rip current risk is expected for all local waters due to continued offshore flow through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 118 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Strong northwesterly transport winds will develop shortly after sunrise this morning, with breezy surface winds expected area-wide by the mid-morning hours. These breezy conditions will combine with critically low relative humidity values this afternoon across north central FL to create an elevated fire danger. Minimum humidity values elsewhere across northeast Florida and southeast Georgia will fall to around 30 percent, or just above critical thresholds. Good daytime dispersion values are forecast throughout our region this afternoon. Northwesterly transport winds will remain breezy on Saturday, but minimum relative humidity values are forecast to remain above critical thresholds. Lower mixing heights on Saturday will generally yield fair daytime dispersion values. Surface and transport winds will then shift to westerly on Sunday with diminishing speeds, resulting in poor daytime dispersion values area-wide. A dry air mass will remain in place, but humidity values are expected to remain above critical thresholds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 56 36 61 36 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 59 41 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 61 38 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 63 42 63 43 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 61 36 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 64 36 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1209189 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:24 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL 815 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 815 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 The PWAT values from MIA sounding this morning was around 0.36 inches which is near the record minimum of 0.32 inches for this time of year. This dry air will remain in place over South Florida today as a secondary dry cold front moves southward from Central Florida into South Florida. Therefore, the forecast looks on track today for South Florida with clear to mostly sunny skies and cooler temperatures. There is still a Small Craft Advisory for the Atlantic waters as seas will be 6 to 8 feet with northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots. The Gulf waters will be in an SCEC for winds of 15 to 20 knots. There is also a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents along all of South Florida beaches today. Therefore, no changes are planned with this update for South Florida area. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 126 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 A strong mid level low currently over the Mid Atlantic states will gradually slide eastward today and into the Atlantic heading into the first part of the weekend. Deep mid level troughing will extend southward across the rest of the Eastern Seaboard and that will slide eastward heading into Saturday. At the surface, a secondary frontal boundary currently over Northern Florida and the Gulf coast will slide southeastward as today progresses. With cold and dry air advection continuing throughout Friday in the wake of the previous front that went through early Thursday morning, high temperatures today will struggle to get to 70 degrees across the Lake Okeechobee region, and these temperatures will rise into the lower 70s elsewhere across the region. With the secondary front passing through the region, this will provide a reinforcing shot of cold air to the area on Friday night into Saturday morning. This will send overnight lows down into the lower 40s west of Lake Okeechobee and into the mid to upper 40s across most other interior locations. The east coast metro areas as well as the coastal area of Southwest Florida will see low temperatures drop into the lower 50s Friday night into Saturday morning. As high pressure continues to build over the region throughout Saturday, the dry conditions will remain in place as strong cold air advection takes place along the north to northwesterly wind flow. High temperatures on Saturday will only rise into the upper 60s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the lower 70s across the rest of South Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 126 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 To close out the weekend, the ridge of high pressure to our north will preface it`s exit with one more chilly morning. Overnight Saturday into Sunday morning, the cold air mass will keep most lows in the mid-40s around Lake Okeechobee and interior southern FL, with the remainder of South FL in the low to mid 50s. However, on Sunday into early next week, the high pressure system will begin to drift eastward allowing the low level winds to veer east/northeastward. While Sunday afternoon highs will trend below climatological normal, they will be the start of a warming trend due to the ENE winds. Next week, with the easterly winds and influence of the Atlantic warmth, temperatures will trend warmer, and potentially reach above climatological normals by mid-week. Afternoon highs will be back in the the upper 70s and low 80s on Monday and widespread 80s by Tuesday. Overnight lows will be closer to normal with temperatures keeping to the upper 50s and 60s by Tuesday morning. With the influence of the high pressure and dry air mass, conditions are expected to remain benign and dry through at least the first half of the new week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 The weather will remain dry with VFR conditions over all of the TAF sites today. Winds will be northwest at 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots at all of the TAF sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 126 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Hazardous marine conditions will continue across the Atlantic waters through today and tonight as a fresh to strong northwesterly wind flow continues. Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 6 to 8 feet before gradually diminishing on Saturday. Across the Gulf waters, a moderate to fresh northwesterly breeze will continue today before gradually diminishing tonight. Marine conditions will improve across all local waters heading into the second half of the weekend and then into early next week as winds and seas diminish. && .BEACHES... Issued at 126 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across all South Florida beaches through the rest of the week and into the first part of the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 72 54 72 57 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 74 49 73 51 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 74 52 73 55 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 74 52 73 55 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 72 53 71 58 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 72 52 71 57 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 74 52 73 55 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 71 51 70 55 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 72 51 71 55 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 72 51 70 51 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1209188 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:00 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 648 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low lingers over the area today before moving offshore tonight into Saturday. As a result, gusty winds and cool temperatures continue today along with light rain across the northern half of the area. Weak high pressure builds over the area late in the weekend, bringing a gradual warmup for the first half of next week. Unsettled weather returns late this week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 645 AM EST Friday... Key Messages... - A Freeze Warning remains in effect early this morning across interior northeast NC and SE VA (where the growing season is still in effect). - Wind chills in the mid to upper 20s this morning. - Cold, light rain moves in across the northern portion of the area this afternoon into this evening. Morning sfc analysis shows a potent upper level low centered across the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, low pressure was located over S NY. This surface low is expected to pivot SW today as the Fujiwhara Effect pulls it closer to the local area due to a lobe of vorticity pivoting over the Appalachians and E across the Carolinas today. Temps early this morning have dropped into the upper 20s to lower 30s W, low-mid 30s E, and upper 30s to around 40F along the coast. The Freeze Warning remains in effect across mainly interior portions of SE VA and NE NC (where the growing season has not yet ended). Additionally, wind chills this morning are expected to drop into the mid-upper 20s across the area. Clear skies this morning will allow for temps to rise into the upper 40s for most by early this afternoon with temps expected to remain mostly steady in the afternoon as stratus moves in from N to S. As the aforementioned surface low moves SW this afternoon, a band of light rain pivots into N half of the FA. QPF looks to remain light with generally just a few hundredths of an inch of rain across VA and 0.15-0.20" across the MD Eastern Shore. Forecast soundings appear to show a small potential for graupel/snow mixing in with the rain at times if precip rates are high enough. This is due to very anomalously cold temps aloft, saturation through the DGZ, dry air at the surface (allowing for cooler wet bulb temps), and temps above freezing in the lowest 0.5km. Any chance for a few snowflakes would be rate-driven with heavier precip more likely to pull down colder air aloft towards the surface and therefore allow for temps to drop to around 39-40F. At this time, the best potential appears to be across MD where steeper low level lapse rates (and cooler temps just above the surface) exist in conjunction with locally higher QPF. However, this is too conditional to reflect in the gridded forecast given the very marginal temps. Rain tapers off from W to E this evening as the low moves offshore. Lows tonight are not expected to be as cold with temps in the upper 30s to around 40F for most. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM EST Friday... Key Messages... - Near normal temperatures and dry weather is expected this weekend. High pressure (centered over the Southeast) builds into the area this weekend with moderating temps and dry weather expected. Highs in the mid-upper 50s (most in the upper 50s) Sat and upper 50s to lower 60s Sun are expected. Lows remain chilly in the mid 30s inland to lower 40s along the coast Sat night and mid 30s NW to upper 30s to around 40F SE Sun night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 410 AM EST Friday... Key Messages... - Warm temperatures are expected early next week. - A cold front moves through Tuesday with cooler weather returning. - An unsettled pattern develops by late week with rain chances increasing. An upper level ridge builds into the East Coast Mon into Tue with high pressure centered off the Southeast coast. This will allow for warmer weather with highs in the mid-upper 60s (locally around 70F) Mon and Tue. An upper level trough and surface low move across the Great Lakes on Tue with a trailing cold front moving across the area during the day. This will allow for cooler weather returning for Wed with highs in the 50s. Given the forcing displaced well to the N of the local area, confidence in showers on Tue is low. However, have kept a slight chance (15-20% PoPs) for a few isolated showers late Mon night into Tue. An unsettled pattern develops for late week with models continuing to show the potential for an area of low pressure impacting the area around Thanksgiving into Fri. Confidence in timing, track, and intensity remain low. However, NBM PoPs have increased with rain now likely on Thanksgiving. Rain chances continue into Fri. Both the GEFS and EPS have around 0.5" of rain across most of the area. Additionally, it looks to be a cold rain for the NW portion of the FA given the potential for CAD to develop. As such, expect a wide range in highs Thu with the NW much cooler than the SE. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 645 AM EST Friday... Mostly clear conditions continue this morning outside of a few mid level clouds offshore and across S portions of the area. A band of light rain pivots around a surface low over NE PA this afternoon, moving over RIC and SBY. Forecast soundings show cold temps aloft with above freezing temps in the lowest few thousand feet and surface temps in the upper 40s for most. Therefore, expect snow aloft to melt into rain before reaching the ground. However, dry air in the lowest portion of the atmosphere support wet bulb temps in the upper 30s to around 40F. As such, a few snow flakes mixed in with the rain are possible if rates are high enough. The best chance is north central VA to the Eastern Shore including SBY, but can`t rule out a few flakes at RIC. Additionally, MVFR VIS is possible at SBY mainly late this afternoon into this evening. Light rain moves offshore by midnight with clearing overnight. Apart from precip, low level stratus move in from NW to SE late this morning into this afternoon. CIGs remain mainly VFR apart from MVFR CIGs from the Northern Neck to the Eastern Shore late this afternoon into tonight. A brief period of IFR CIGs is possible between 00-04z Sat. Otherwise, W winds 5-10 kt early this morning increase to 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt this afternoon into early tonight before gradually diminishing. Outlook: Winds shift to the NW and remain gusty Saturday, before diminishing Saturday night into Sunday. Mainly dry conditions continue into mid week. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EST Friday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all area waters this morning through this afternoon. - Gale Warnings are in effect for all area waters later this afternoon into Saturday morning. Early this morning, ~980 mb low pressure remains over the Northeastern US. This low will linger in the same vicinity today into tonight, before gradually lifting further to the northeast, with high pressure returning later this weekend. Winds have diminished somewhat from earlier, with WNW winds generally ranging from 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts. Seas are running around 3 to 4 feet, and waves in the Chesapeake Bay around 2 to 3 feet. The general "lull" in the winds will continue through this morning and into the early afternoon, before an abrupt change later this afternoon into this evening. Another strong surge of cooler/drier air is pushed down across the local waters later this afternoon, with winds rapidly increasing to 25 to 30 knots around or shortly after 1 PM. The highest wind speeds will be from approximately 7 PM through 1 AM with sustained winds ranging from 30 to 35 knots and gusts of 35 to 40 knots (locally higher). As a result, Gale Warnings are in effect for all waters starting at 1 PM/18 UTC this afternoon and continuing into tonight or Saturday morning. Winds begin to gradually diminish late tonight through Saturday morning as high pressure starts to build back into the area and the pressure gradient begins to relax. Gale Warnings will need to be converted back to SCAs, with SCA conditions expected to linger through the day Saturday and likely continuing into a portion of Saturday night. Calmer conditions then return Sunday into early next week, before another front potentially crosses the waters Tuesday. Seas/waves are expected to remain similar to what is currently being observed through this afternoon. Seas and waves build later this afternoon into tonight with the surge of wind. Seas will range from 4 to 7 feet and waves 4 to 5 feet (locally 6 feet). Seas diminish during the day Saturday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ012>017- 030>032. VA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ089-090-092- 093-096-097. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ630>634-638. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Saturday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. && $$ |
| #1209187 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:57 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 651 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Broad area of low pressure will remain in place across the eastern U.S. through Saturday. High pressure then builds in late in the weekend and into next week continuing the dry weather pattern. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 630 AM Friday... - Breezy and cold today An unusually deep upper level low currently resides over the Northern Mid-Atlantic States, with a broad area of cyclonic flow over the Eastern U.S. A shortwave embedded within this flow will dive south out of the Ohio Valley this morning, then cross the Carolinas this afternoon. Beneath the upper low, a SFC low will drop south from PA into NY, leading to a tightening pressure gradient to the south across VA/NC. This combined with deepening mixing through the day will support increasing westerly winds from late-morning through the afternoon hours. Widespread wind gusts of 25-35 mph are expected. Of note, the latest hi-res guidance suggests the potential exists for some areas to see 35-40+ mph gusts, especially from mid- afternoon on. Along the OBX, wind gusts may flirt with advisory criteria (ie. 45 mph), but confidence in impacts is low, therefore we`ll hold off on any wind headlines for now. Notably low thickness values plus continued CAA through the day should make it hard to reach 50 degrees for most areas today. Some of the coldest available guidance suggests upper 40s for highs. Should this occur, this would be nearly 15-20 degrees below normal. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM Friday... - Continued breezy and cold tonight - Lower risk of freezing temperatures tonight In the wake of today`s shortwave, breezy conditions are expected to continue for much of the night thanks to a continued moderate pressure gradient. In light of this, it appears most areas won`t decouple, which should help keep temps from getting as low as they got this morning. Even the colder available guidance suggests most areas will stay above freezing. Across far SW sections of ENC, there may be a brief window of opportunity for winds to decouple. Should this occur, there would be a risk of temps falling into the 30-32 degree range (mainly Duplin and inland Onslow Counties). Based on all of the above, we`ll plan to forego any frost/freeze headlines tonight. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 3:30 AM Friday... - Warming trend through Tuesday - Multiple fronts mid to late next week A deep upper level low currently centered over the northeast will continue to move northeastward on Saturday. Across the Carolinas, zonal flow will take over as the low moves offshore and high pressure will begin to push north into the area. High pressure will remain dominant until Tuesday when the next wave is forecast to traverse the eastern U.S. Saturday...The offshore transition of the upper low and increasing thickness at the surface will allow temps to reach values 5-10 degrees higher than today (upper 50s/low 60s). Gusty winds will continue through the day, but there will be a downward trend through the day. Sustained winds of 10-15 mph with 20+ mph gusts will persist through late afternoon. A lack of cloud cover and light winds will allow for efficient radiative cooling, so lows will be back down to the mid 30s across the coastal plain (mid 40s beaches). Sunday - Tuesday...Zonal flow aloft and building high pressure at the surface will support a dry and gradually warmer forecast for the end of the weekend and start of next week. Highs will increase from the low to mid 60s on Sunday to upper 60s to low 70s on Tuesday. A front is forecast to cross ENC on Tuesday afternoon, but guidance is not in agreement on how wet or dry this system will be, so I opted to lean towards the drier guidance at this time and capped PoPs at 20%. Wednesday - Thursday...Wednesday looks mostly dry as of now as high pressure will briefly resume. By Wednesday evening, however, a stationary boundary will setup across ENC and linger through Thanksgiving. The forecast has trended wetter and supports widespread stratiform rain, but PoPs have been capped at chance at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 12z Saturday/... As of 630 AM Friday... - Gusty west winds today - LLWS impacts possible tonight (40-60% chance) Light winds this morning will quickly increase by mid to late- morning as daytime mixing increases, and as the gradient tightens well to the south of low pressure spinning over the Northern Mid- Atlantic States. Recent guidance hasn`t changed much regarding the wind potential later this morning through this evening, and is still showing a solid signal for 20-30kt westerly wind gusts. Winds may begin to decrease some this evening, especially across the coastal plain of ENC, which opens the door to possible LLWS impacts. With this TAF issuance, I`ve added a LLWS mention to KISO and KPGV where confidence is highest. Through tonight, periods of SCT/BKN low to mid level clouds are forecast to pivot southeast through the Carolinas. However, at this time, any CIGs should be VFR. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 3:30 AM Friday...Predominantly VFR conditions persist through the period. Breezy westerly winds will continue Saturday at 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt (higher along the coast). The wind field will generally be SW at 5-10 kt through the remainder of the period. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 630 AM Friday... - Gale Warning remains in effect this evening through Saturday morning Northwesterly winds of 10-20kt this morning will become westerly by this afternoon and increase to 15-25kt. By this evening, the winds will further increase, with sustained winds of 20-30kt expected. From late this afternoon through tonight, frequent gusts of 30-40kt are expected, and a Gale Warning remains in effect where confidence in 34kt+ gusts is the highest. Of note, the mouth of the Neuse River may see occasional gusts to 34kt, but guidance continues to suggest this area will stay just below gales, and we`ve opted to keep that area out of the Gale Warning. Seas of 4-6 ft across the coastal waters this morning will gradually build to 5-7 ft by this evening and into tonight. For the outer reaches of the central and northern waters, seas of 7-8 ft will be possible. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 3:30 AM Friday...Marine conditions will gradually improve on Saturday. A Gale Warning is in effect everywhere except the inland rivers through Saturday morning. Winds will be decreasing through the day, but SCA conditions will persist through Saturday evening, lasting the longest for waters north of Cape Hatteras. By late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, all waters will be below SCA criteria. Winds will generally be 10-20 kt with 2-4 ft seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 230 AM Friday... - Dry and breezy conditions again today Northwesterly winds this morning will become westerly through the day today, and increase to 10-15 mph, with gusts of 20-30 mph expected by this afternoon. Meanwhile, dry air continuing to advect into ENC will help keep RHs in the 30s and 40s percent. Because of the cold airmass in place, RHs shouldn`t get as low as they otherwise could if it were just as dry, but warmer. In light of this, significant fire concerns aren`t anticipated. That said, if any fire does start, the breezy conditions will make fire control difficult. Similar conditions are expected again on Saturday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 430 AM Thursday...Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Outer Banks of Dare county late this afternoon through Sat afternoon, with potential for soundside coastal flooding, inundation 1-2 ft agl. Main concern is for soundside areas favored in westerly flow, Duck to Hatteras Village (including areas in Roanoke Island). && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ029-044>046- 079>081-090>092-094-193>195-198-199. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Saturday for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ131- 135-150-152-154-156-158-230-231. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ131-135-150-152-154-156-158-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ136-137. && $$ |
| #1209186 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:57 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 554 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 309 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 The short term forecast will remain characterized by cool and dry conditions, though a gradual warming trend is expected to begin as we approach the middle of the weekend. For now, another cool night is in store with many surface stations as of 3PM CST again running below model guidance for overnight temperatures. Portions of the northern zones have dropped into the upper 30s, with temperatures so far in the mid to upper 40s elsewhere. A dry and relatively pleasant day is on the cards to close out the work week with broad surface high pressure in the Central Plains being the dominant synoptic feature. Look for daytime highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s, light winds, and mostly clear skies. Lows should yet again reach the upper 30s to lower 40s. A pattern shift gets underway on Saturday as the aforementioned area of high pressure pushes off to the east, slowly bringing about a return to an onshore flow regime for our area. With the return of WAA and moisture transport, we should see highs in the mid/upper 70s for most of the area while lows will sit in the 50s. Cady && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 309 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 The extended forecast looks to be an active one as a series of cold fronts move into and across SE TX next week. With the surface high shifting further east of the region and pres- sures falling over the Southern Plains on Sun, the tightening grad- ient should result in increasing onshore winds/warming temperatures for Sun/Mon. Highs are expected to reach the lower to mid 80s as we start of the week. The next cold front is expected to drop SSE from the Plains and into the area by Mon night. While low-level moisture is going to be limited for much of the CWA...we could see some very isolated showers form by early Tues morning as the boundary reaches our coastal counties/Gulf waters. Thereafter, global models are indicating that this front will even- tually stall along to just off the coast by Tues night. However, we will be seeing the rapid return of onshore winds by Wed as the next system moves off the Rockies and begins deepening over the Southern Plains. Isolated to scattered convection will be possible on Wed as the upper jet pattern becomes more favorable and low-level moisture increase (PWs 1.4"-1.6"). All of this will be setting the stage for a second stronger cold front, which should move into and across the CWA on Thanksgiving Day (if models do verify). So, the potential is there for a warmish soggy turkey day this year. 41 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 550 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 VFR conditions will prevail over the course of the TAF period. Expect mostly clear skies, with perhaps a few high clouds filling in later this evening. Winds will remain out of the NE/N, becoming light and variable overnight. Cady && .MARINE... Issued at 309 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Light northerly winds and low seas will prevail today. But as high pressure begins moving east of the region...winds will become more easterly tonight/tomorrow. Onshore winds are set to return by late tomorrow night...strengthening on Sun as the gradient tightens (in response to the next system moving into the Southern Plains). SCEC or SCA flags may be needed by Mon. The next cold front is expected to move into the bays/nearshore waters by early Tues morning, then stalling in/near this same region by Tue night. Moderate to strong onshore winds will be returning on Weds along with the possibility of Caution/Advisory flags once again. A second stronger cold front is forecast to move into SE TX on Thurs (Thanksgiving Day)...maybe not reaching the Gulf waters until sometime that night. Stay tuned. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 72 42 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 72 45 74 56 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 70 61 73 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1209185 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:45 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 633 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will remain the primary feature through early next week. A cold front could approach the area towards the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: A deep upper-level low will meander over the Northeast, allowing for CAA and dry air to continue to advect through the region. Once the morning inversion breaks, winds aloft will mix down and cause for another breezy day with westerly winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph. Skies will remain clear allowing for an ample amount of sunshine. However, despite this, it is expected to be the coldest day this week with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Tonight: By the evening, winds should decouple after sunset and allow for decent radiational cooling overnight bringing lows down to the mid to upper 30s. Conditions should be more supportive of patchy frost tonight compared to the night before, however a Frost Advisory does not look likely at this time. Lake Winds: Winds over Lake Moultrie have diminished quite a bit overnight. They are expected to pick back up after sunrise with speeds of 15 to 20 kt and gusts to around 25 kt. However, by the evening they should relax back down to 10 to 15 kt with gust up to 20 kt. A Lake Wind Advisory has been extended through noon to see how wind gusts go through the morning and determine if the advisory needs to be extended further into the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Long wave trough axis will ripple east over the Atlantic on Saturday. Mid-level flow across the forecast area will become generally zonal flow on Sunday, tilting slightly from SW to NE on Monday. On Saturday, the center of surface high pressure should remain centered over Deep South, resulting in light WNW winds across the forecast area. Using a blend of MOS, high temperatures with sunny conditions should favor values in the low 60s, 5 to 7 degrees below normal. Saturday night, the center of sfc high pressure is forecast to slide over the FL/GA line. After sunset, winds should become light to calm across the forecast area. The combination of clear sky with little to no wind should provide several hours of excellent radiational cooling conditions. Dewpoints should gradually narrow through the night, with most areas reaching the upper 90s RH during the pre-dawn hours. Low temperatures should range in the mid 30s, with a few spots reaching freezing across portions of the inland counties. It appears that areas of frost will develop inland late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Elsewhere, scattered frost is possible, especially just inland of the coastal counties. The frost potential will remain highlighted in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Sunday through Monday, the forecast area is expected to remain between high pressure over the western Atlantic as a cold front across the middle CONUS. This pattern will provide the region with steady return flow and rising LLVL thicknesses. Temperatures should return to normal on Sunday, with highs in the upper 60s. On Monday, temperatures will continue to moderate, with highs on Monday reaching the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Medium range guidance indicates that a cold front is timed to approach the CWA from west Monday night, then pushing across on Tuesday. The front is expected to bring a band of SCT to BKN cloud cover across the region. Temperatures ahead of the front should remain well above normal, high Tuesday ranging in the mid to upper 70s. Wednesday, high pressure should slide across the region in the wake of the cold front. Conditions should remain dry with temperatures near normal. GFS and ECMWF indicate that broad longwave trough will amplify over the Southern Plains Wednesday night into Thanksgiving. This disturbance will ripple across the region during the daylight hours Thanksgiving into Friday. During this period, the forecast will feature SCHC PoPs for light showers. Temperatures should remain mild, with the warmest values expected Thanksgiving afternoon in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 12z Saturday. Breezy northwest winds are expected again today, with frequent gusts at all 3 sites up to around 25 knots at times. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Today: Westerly winds will persist at 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt over the waters with 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the Charleston Harbor. Seas will range 3 to 5 ft across much of the waters except for the outer coastal waters reaching to 6 ft. For the Charleston Harbor, gusts should fall below 25 kt Friday evening so the Advisory is scheduled to come down at 23z/6 PM. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all waters through tonight. Saturday through Wednesday: High pressure will remain across the coastal waters this weekend into earl next week, then a weak cold front is timed to push across the region on Tuesday. Winds through the period should favor values of 10 kts or less. Seas are forecast to range between 1-2 ft. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...Lake Wind Advisory until noon EST today for SCZ045. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ330. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ350-352- 354. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1209184 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:42 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 641 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Below normal temperatures will continue through Saturday night. High pressure will then move off the coast early next week bringing warmer temperatures. A passing cold front and another storm system are likely to impact the area mid week. && .UPDATE... No major changes are necessary from the ongoing forecast with this update. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A potent mid-level trough will pivot across the region today with the lowest 500mb heights expected to cross overhead this afternoon. This will result in chilly high temperatures only reaching the low to mid 50s, which are near to a few degrees below our coldest normal highs in the mid-upper 50s in mid-January. As the cold core of the trough passes overhead today, expect a mix of clouds and sun this afternoon as stratocumulus clouds accompany its passage. Behind the trough late this afternoon and evening, any clouds will shift away or dissipate as heights rise and a robust subsidence inversion scours out low-level moisture. Thus, a clear night is in store with dew points holding in the upper 20s to low 30s. The pressure gradient is expected to slacken from southwest to northeast as high pressure builds in while surface low pressure over the Northeast gradually pulls away to the northeast. The result will be a general decrease in winds through the night, with some areas in the Pee Dee region likely to go calm. This supports patchy frost in sheltered areas and areas near bodies of water, where dew points are locally higher. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Highlights: *Dry with below to near normal temperatures *Frost/freeze possible inland Sat night Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: Troughing to start the period will quickly give way to more ridging which means increasing temperatures, diminishing winds and a continuation of dry conditions. Temps should fall into the mid 30s across most inland areas Saturday night meaning some frost will be possible. Can`t even rule out some spots hitting freezing as well if radiational cooling gets maximized. Note however that the need for a Frost Advisory or Freeze Watch/Warning will be predicated on whether the growing season ends before this. On Sunday, temperatures should climb back to near normal levels in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Highlights: *Above normal temps through at least early week *A cold front and another storm system could bring cooler temps and showers mid week *Moderate to High through Mon night *Low to Moderate starting Tue Details: High pressure will be shifting offshore bringing warmer temps and slowly increasing moisture levels. A cold front looks to approach Tuesday and possibly move through Tuesday night. Rain chances should be pretty low due to limited moisture/forcing with this front, although can`t rule out at least a few showers. This front should return back north as a warm front into or through the area Wednesday night ahead of another more potent storm system approaching from the west. Moisture and forcing appear more abundant with this system and thus rain chances should be greater, although some uncertainty remains regarding rain timing/amounts. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR through the period. Gusty winds are the primary concern today as the boundary layer grows, permitting gusty winds reaching 20-25 kts during the afternoon. Gusty winds will subside during the evening with the loss of heating, but expect continued steady westerly winds through tonight. Extended Outlook...Expect VFR through at least early Tuesday as high pressure maintains control, with a low risk of restrictions later Tuesday as a cold front approaches. Gusty winds will remain a concern through Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... After a temporary lull in winds this morning with speeds below SCA criteria, a resurgence in wind is expected this afternoon with gusts increasing to 25-30 kts, and these will continue through tonight. Seas will hold in the 2-4 ft range across much of the waters except for higher waves reaching around 5 ft in the outer coastal waters offshore of Cape Fear. Saturday through Tuesday...Expect improving conditions this weekend as high pressure builds in leading to a weaker pressure gradient. Small Craft Advisory conditions could linger into Saturday morning but otherwise no major wind/sea concerns are expected, although winds will pick up a bit Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ |
| #1209183 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:42 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 636 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 441 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Current conditions along the Florida Keys have us wondering what really counts as chilly here? Weather conditions have been uneventful for this midnight shift team, but the effects of the recent cold front are very obvious from the observations available to us. As of 5 AM local time, temperatures are in the 60s, and dew points are anywhere from the upper 40s in the Upper Keys to the mid 50s in the Lower Keys. In general, the air feels much less heavy or oppressive once the dew points get below the 70 degree mark, so it is safe to say that the weather outside is at least more comfortable than in recent weeks. These numbers just tell us that this cold front was an efficient one, and it may be time to put up holiday decorations. For those of us who reach for the winter attire once we feel the slightest chill in the air, we hope you are handling this weather okay. Breezes along the island chain have been near 15 mph during the night, but these breezes will slacken as the cold front moves farther away. For anyone interested in going out on the water today, there is still a Small Craft Advisory in effect due to fresher breezes over the water. Satellite shows a vast field of low level clouds across portions of the Gulf of Mexico, tracking south to southeastward, and some of that cloud cover is clipping the Lower Keys and our western marine zones. The rest of our forecast area is caught in a shadow effect from the Florida peninsula, so the sunrise will be a clear one in a little while. The cold front that passed through was part of a system up in the northeastern U.S. and it will continue its progression away from our area. The northerly flow will help to keep our chillier temperatures in place for a couple of more days. High temps today in the lower to mid 70s will slowly trend a couple of degrees warmer over each day, and by next week we should rebound into the 80s again. Forecast soundings support the idea that this dry air is going to be locked in place through at least the beginning of next week. Some moisture around 850mb may be able to sneak in, but that just means we may see a few innocuous clouds at some point over the coming days. This also means that rainfall chances are as close to zero percent as we can get without them actually being zero. Enjoy the next few days, Keys. We waited all Summer for this weather! && .MARINE... Issued at 441 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effects for all Florida Keys waters. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Middle and Upper Keys, and mariners should be mindful of lower clearance under fixed bridges near times of high tide. From synopsis, fresh to occasionally strong northwest to north breezes during the early morning hours will slacken over the course of this afternoon and tonight. The resulting moderate breezes out of the north will turn to the northeast and east over the beginning of next week. Weather conditions are still expected to remain dry through the end of this week and into next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 441 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 VFR and dry conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH today. Near surface winds will be out of the north at near 10 knots with frequent gusts near 20 knots early, before slackening gradually throughout the day. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys weather history in 2006, the daily record low temperature of 55F was recorded at Key West International Airport. Temperature data for Key West dates back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 73 67 73 66 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 73 63 72 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ |
| #1209182 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:42 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 529 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 243 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 The BRO CWFA will remain on the northeast periphery of 500 mb high pressure that will remain centered just west of the Baja Peninsula. A northwest-to-southeast flow associated with the mid- level high will produce dry weather for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the period. Meanwhile, surface high pressure easing towards the east will allow an onshore flow to redevelop, persist, and intensify. Overnight low and daytime high temperatures will gradually warm, with values at well above normal levels for this time of year. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 243 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 The long term forecast period will be a pleasant and mostly stable period along with being rain free as well. With a mid-level ridge being the main influence for the weather over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley for the long term forecast period and even some zonal flow aloft, more aloft dry air is expected to move into the area. Thus, the dry and stable air aloft will greatly hinder any chance of rain development for the long term forecast period. Also with the influence of the mid-level ridge in place, the area will see a summer-like weather pattern resulting in higher than normal temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with low temperatures in the 60s through the period. Meanwhile, on the surface, southeasterly to southerly winds are expected to persist through the period each day. While the winds are expected to be generally light each day, however by Sunday the pressure gradient is expected to tighten as a low pressure system interacts with high pressure over the Southeast. Around mid to late week, a upper-level trough will push across the Southeast and bring a front towards the area. The current trend in the models still shows a large difference of in timing for the front. Currently the GFS brings the front in sooner and the ECMWF is much later. However, based on the current model analysis the front does not seem to have much of an impact on the temperatures in the long term forecast period. Further shifts will need to continue to monitor the forecast trends to see how the model trends continue to evolve with this event along with any changes for the potential impacts from this cold front. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 527 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours, with light winds and clear skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Today through Saturday...Buoy 42020 reported southwest winds around 2 knots gusting to around 6 knots with seas slightly under 2.5 feet with a period of 6 seconds at 1:50 CST/7:50 UTC. Generally light winds and low seas will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast through the period courtesy of high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are not likely to be needed. Saturday Night through Thursday...Mostly favorable conditions with light to moderate southeasterly to southerly winds and low to moderate seas. The main exceptions to this pattern will be on Sunday and Thursday as both days the pressure gradient is expected to tighten, which will result in stronger southeasterly winds that will mostly likely require Small Craft Exercise Caution. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 61 82 68 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 80 56 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 83 59 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 80 56 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 71 78 74 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 61 81 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ |
| #1209181 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:30 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 616 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Strong low pressure near western CT early this morning will continue to move westward today into southern NY, then meanders east and northeast into the Canadian Maritimes through the weekend. Rains gradually decrease early this morning, with a lull in the rain for most of today, but rain chances increase again late this afternoon and tonight before pulling away into early Saturday. Considerable cloudiness for this weekend with gusty northwest winds. Brief dry weather returns on Monday. The rest of the week looks active, with one storm system around Tuesday spreading rain showers. Blustery, cooler and dry for Wednesday, then monitoring for additional storminess around Thanksgiving or Black Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages * Showers come to an end across eastern MA/RI this morning but linger a bit longer across western MA and CT * Another round of showers develops mid-afternoon and continues into Saturday morning * Gusty northwest winds around 35 mph expected Saturday afternoon 330 AM Update Today The center of the surface low-pressure system responsible yesterday/last nights rainfall is retrograding west into New York at this hour. Steady precipitation continues across most of MA, but has begun to wane across CT and RI. As the surface low continues to pivot west into New York, the associated dry slot will work its way over southern New England as winds taken on a south/southeast component. This will lead to a dry start to the day Friday with perhaps some decent sunshine across eastern MA and RI through the afternoon hours. Showers/unsettled weather may linger across western MA/CT as those areas will be closer to the surface low- pressure center over New York. By early to mid-afternoon the associated upper-level low will begin to dig southeast back over The Mid-Atlantic. Concurrently, short-wave energy embedded in the broader cyclonic circulation will approach southern New England from roughly southeast of Nantucket. This will support another round of rainfall for the region this afternoon and overnight. Shower activity will be greatest across eastern MA, RI, and The Cape/Islands. High temps around normal across eastern MA and RI near 50 degrees, but a bit cooler further west in the mid to upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... Key Messages * Another round of showers develops Friday afternoon and continues into Saturday morning * Gusty northwest winds around 35 mph expected Saturday afternoon Tonight Showers continue overnight as the aforementioned short-wave energy approaching from the southeast pivots north into The Gulf of Maine. Expect the heaviest precipitation over The Cape/Islands and east/northeastern MA. An additional 0.25 to 0.5 inches will be in the cards for these areas. Further across the interior, only expecting modest shower activity with a tenth to a quarter of an inch possible. As the surface low moves north into The Gulf of Maine, winds will shift to the north/northwest. This will advect cooler air into southern New England and support chilly temperatures tonight into tomorrow morning. In fact, the cooler air aloft may support some snow at elevations above 1500 feet in The Berkshires or northern Worcester Hills, but no significant accumulations or impacts are expected. Low temps bottom out in the low to mid 30s west of I- 495 and mid to upper 30s east of I-495. Saturday Coastal low-pressure system continues to meander over The Gulf of Maine for most of the day Saturday. This will continue to support showers across the eastern areas. Further west we should begin to see some gradually clearing as northwest flow advects drier air into the region. Air mass will be cooler with 925 hPa temps aloft close to the freezing mark. This would translate to surface high temps in the mid to upper 40s on Saturday afternoon. Of greater concern for Saturday will be the potential for gusty northwest winds. Latest model guidance has trended toward a stronger low-level jet on Saturday afternoon with 925/850 hPa wind speeds peaking between 35 and 50 knots respectively. BUFKIT soundings support momentum transfer of 35+ knots to the surface or perhaps even higher depending on the model. The tricky part of this forecast will be the determining the efficiency of mixing in the boundary layer,particularly across eastern MA where cloud cover will be more extensive. Model derived low-level lapse rates are coming in around 8 to 9 C/Km for Saturday afternoon, which would imply enough mixing to support stronger northwest wind gusts. Right now thinking 30 knots (~35 mph) gusts on Saturday afternoon will be in the cards for much of southern New England. Some locations across southeastern MA, The Cape, and Islands may even approach wind advisory criteria (40+ knot gusts, 45+ mph). Confidence in reaching those values is not high enough to warrant wind headlines at this time, but we will be monitoring this portion of the forecast closely over the next 24 hours. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Highlights: * Gradually drying out this weekend with seasonably cool temps, but with NW gusts 25-40 mph Sat night into Sun early PM. * Tranquil and seasonable Mon. * Frontal system for Tue spreads lighter showers early on Tue, then dry and blustery for Wed. * Monitoring more active weather around the Thanksgiving holiday or Black Friday, some of which could be wintry, but uncertainty is very large. Details: Saturday Night and Sunday: Strong low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will continue to slowly move ENE through the rest of the weekend. Tight NW pressure gradient will continue to drive blustery NW winds. Approach of secondary shortwave disturbance moving through Ontario SE into New England late Sat night into early on Sun will increase a NWly low- level jet, which global models indicate ~40-45 kt at 850 mb. Expect a cloudy and blustery night Sat night with gusts 25-35 mph, on the higher end of that range over the higher terrain. As mixing depth increases with a bit more in the way of sun on Sunday, we could see gusts punch into the 30-40 mph range into the early afternoon, near Advisory levels, then decreasing into the midafternoon as the low level jet weakens. The gusty conditions will make it feel much cooler than forecast temps; lows Sat night in the mid to upper 30s may feel more like the upper 20s to near freezing with the NW breeze, and highs 45-50 on Sunday. Clearing skies will lead to a chilly Sun night with lows in the upper 20s to the lower to mid 30s, but will feel cooler with a continued NW wind around 10-15 mph. Monday: Monday likely to be the pick of the forecast with high pressure ridging in, offering full sun and a slackening wind. Modest warm advection with 925 mb temps up to around +4 to +6C brings highs into the low to mid 50s. Monday Night thru Tuesday Night: The 500 mb pattern becomes more active starting in this period, continuing into the workweek, as spokes of shortwave trough energy from the West Coast move across the CONUS. A lead shortwave moves into the Gt Lakes and Northeast region into Tue, bringing a risk for showers. However models vary on the strength of this wave with the ECMWF on the weaker side, while the GFS and Canadian are a little stronger and would offer a little more QPF. Highs around the 50s. Wednesday: Low pressure will have moved into the Maritimes early on Wed, and other than northwest breezes, early look at conditions for the biggest holiday travel day seem favorable with partly to mostly sunny conditions and highs in the 40s to near 50. Thursday/Friday: Pacific frontal system moves across the central US, leading to a developing storm system in the central Plains around Thurs. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists in the details, though there appears to be enough colder air in place to allow for some wintry weather possibilities Thurs and/or Fri, provided there is a favorable storm track. Kept PoP on the higher end of Chance but will be monitoring model developments very closely. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today: Moderate confidence. Intermittent light rains with MVFR clouds for the interior, but for RI and eastern MA, a lull in rains are expected for part of the day with SCT-BKN VFR bases and southerly gusts around 20-25 kt. Late in the day (thinking after 20z, although exact timing is still a bit uncertain), another round of steadier rains develops over the southeast waters and rotates NNW into at least eastern MA and RI by 00z. As this rain moves in, expect ceilings lowering to MVFR levels, S winds shifing to SE/E around 10-12 kt and visbys around 4-6 SM in -RA/RA. Tonight: Moderate confidence. VFR/MVFR deteriorates to MVFR/IFR ceilings at most airports, with steadier RA at 4-6 SM vsby for at least eastern MA and RI, possibly as far west as BAF/BDL but the western extent is still uncertain. Rain should pull away toward the NE after 06z. SE/E winds become NE around 10 kt thru midnight, and then NW around 5-10 kt overnight before increasing in speed to 10-15 kt by daybreak Sat. Saturday: Moderate to high confidence. BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR ceilings with slow improvement trends. Gusty NW winds around 15 kt with gusts 25-35 kt. KBOS Terminal...A few scattered showers for a couple more hours this morning. Shower activity should wane by 13Z as skies scatter out from east to west. Otherwise, VFR with S around 10-15 kt/gusts to 25 kt most of the day. Another round of rain develops after 20z with developing SE/E winds and deteriorating cigs. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. IFR/MVFR ceilings with MVFR rains on N winds initially. Abrupt windshift to SE/S 08-10z with categories trending MVFR. Otherwise, MVFR with more intermittent -RA today on S winds around 10 kt. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance RA. Sunday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Sunday Night through Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Saturday Low-pressure shift northwest away from the coastal waters today. This will support diminishing winds for this morning and tonight. Winds become more southerly today and while weaker, will still be blowing from to 10 to 20 knots. Gale force wind gusts come to an end this morning and generally become bounded by sustained winds or perhaps a few knots over (~15 knots). As the afternoon progresses, low-pressure approaching the waters from southeast of Nantucket will introduce a new round of rain along with a return to easterly winds which will shift to the north/northwest tonight into Saturday morning. Conditions begin to deteriorate again on Saturday with sustained northwest winds rising to 20 to 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots by Saturday evening. Gale Warnings will be likely for the coastal waters Saturday afternoon through most of Sunday. Seas gradually come down with winds today as well and may fall below SCY criteria overnight. This will of course will be short-lived as the gale force winds expected Saturday afternoon brings seas back to the 5 to 8 foot range over the outer marine zones. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain. Sunday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ231>234-251. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ235- 237. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ250- 254>256. && $$ |
| #1209180 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:30 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL 614 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 126 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 A strong mid level low currently over the Mid Atlantic states will gradually slide eastward today and into the Atlantic heading into the first part of the weekend. Deep mid level troughing will extend southward across the rest of the Eastern Seaboard and that will slide eastward heading into Saturday. At the surface, a secondary frontal boundary currently over Northern Florida and the Gulf coast will slide southeastward as today progresses. With cold and dry air advection continuing throughout Friday in the wake of the previous front that went through early Thursday morning, high temperatures today will struggle to get to 70 degrees across the Lake Okeechobee region, and these temperatures will rise into the lower 70s elsewhere across the region. With the secondary front passing through the region, this will provide a reinforcing shot of cold air to the area on Friday night into Saturday morning. This will send overnight lows down into the lower 40s west of Lake Okeechobee and into the mid to upper 40s across most other interior locations. The east coast metro areas as well as the coastal area of Southwest Florida will see low temperatures drop into the lower 50s Friday night into Saturday morning. As high pressure continues to build over the region throughout Saturday, the dry conditions will remain in place as strong cold air advection takes place along the north to northwesterly wind flow. High temperatures on Saturday will only rise into the upper 60s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the lower 70s across the rest of South Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 126 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 To close out the weekend, the ridge of high pressure to our north will preface it`s exit with one more chilly morning. Overnight Saturday into Sunday morning, the cold air mass will keep most lows in the mid-40s around Lake Okeechobee and interior southern FL, with the remainder of South FL in the low to mid 50s. However, on Sunday into early next week, the high pressure system will begin to drift eastward allowing the low level winds to veer east/northeastward. While Sunday afternoon highs will trend below climatological normal, they will be the start of a warming trend due to the ENE winds. Next week, with the easterly winds and influence of the Atlantic warmth, temperatures will trend warmer, and potentially reach above climatological normals by mid-week. Afternoon highs will be back in the the upper 70s and low 80s on Monday and widespread 80s by Tuesday. Overnight lows will be closer to normal with temperatures keeping to the upper 50s and 60s by Tuesday morning. With the influence of the high pressure and dry air mass, conditions are expected to remain benign and dry through at least the first half of the new week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 The weather will remain dry with VFR conditions over all of the TAF sites today. Winds will be northwest at 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots at all of the TAF sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 126 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Hazardous marine conditions will continue across the Atlantic waters through today and tonight as a fresh to strong northwesterly wind flow continues. Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 6 to 8 feet before gradually diminishing on Saturday. Across the Gulf waters, a moderate to fresh northwesterly breeze will continue today before gradually diminishing tonight. Marine conditions will improve across all local waters heading into the second half of the weekend and then into early next week as winds and seas diminish. && .BEACHES... Issued at 126 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across all South Florida beaches through the rest of the week and into the first part of the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 72 54 72 57 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 74 49 73 51 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 74 52 73 55 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 74 52 73 55 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 72 53 71 58 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 72 52 71 57 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 74 52 73 55 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 71 51 70 55 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 72 51 71 55 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 72 51 70 51 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for GMZ676. && $$ |
| #1209178 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:27 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 626 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 234 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 For today, breezy and cool conditions will prevail with clear skies behind a cold front. High temperatures will generally range from the mid to upper 50s across the northern counties to the low to mid 60s closer to the coast. The main concern will be the potential for frost early Saturday morning as winds diminish overnight with clear skies and the cold airmass in place. Low temperatures Saturday morning are expected to bottom out in the mid 30s for most of the area away from the coast with sufficient low level moisture for areas of frost. A frost advisory will likely be needed for most of the area away from the coast tonight, but the day shift can fine tune the area with another round of model guidance today. && .SHORT & LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 234 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Calm and dry conditions are expected through this term. Temperatures will begin on the chilly side, but will gradually warm through the week as a surface high traverses east, allowing for southerly flow to return to the region. Morning temperatures will start in the mid to upper 30s with wind chills in the low 30s, then warm to the mid to upper 50s by Thanksgiving Day. Afternoon temps will be in the 60s Saturday and low 70s for Sunday then warm to the upper 70s through the rest of the week. PoPs chances remain relatively low however, a cold front will approach the southeast U.S. Tuesday but will stall north of our region leaving us with a 10%-20% chance for showers and thunderstorms as we will be in an upper level zonal pattern, keeping us mainly dry. At the end of the term, global guidance is indicating a pattern change that may increase our chances for precipitation for mid-late week with an approaching upper level trough with an associated cold front. As the models come more into agreement, we will provide further updates. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 VFR conditions with clear skies are expected to prevail. Low level wind shear is expected at VLD early this morning with near calm surface winds and northwest winds around 30 knots at around 2000 ft. By mid-morning, surface winds will increase out of the northwest for all sites with gusts near 20 knots expected, and the low level wind shear will come to an end. && .MARINE... Issued at 234 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Advisory-level conditions continue today, but the winds will be starting their downward trend through the day following the frontal passage early this morning. The Small Craft Advisory should be allowed to expire this afternoon, with exercise caution conditions continuing through the overnight hours into Saturday morning. Afterwards, more tranquil boating conditions ensue with light northwesterly/northerly winds for the remainder of the weekend. As we start the work week, winds will become southerly when the surface high pressure moves east over to the Atlantic. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 234 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Dispersions will be elevated today with breezy conditions behind a cold front. Min RH values will drop into the low to mid 30s across the area this afternoon. Dispersions will decrease over the weekend as winds become light, but the dry airmass will linger. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 234 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Little to no rainfall is expected over the next few days into the start of next week. There are no flooding concerns at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 60 38 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 63 41 66 45 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 58 35 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 57 35 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 59 37 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 64 35 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 62 42 64 49 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ108-112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon for GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1209177 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:27 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 613 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 206 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 - Poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue through tonight. - Below normal temperatures forecast to persist through this weekend, and will be the coldest temperatures of the season so far. - Remaining dry over the next several days, with fire sensitive conditions continuing into this weekend. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 206 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Current-Tonight...A cool start to the morning with areawide 40s near sunrise expected, and L50s for the barrier islands. Lowest wind chill readings around sunrise may fall into the U30s to L40s across much of the area. Vigorous mid-level troughing continues along the Atlc Seaboard. This will push a dry, reinforcing cold front across ECFL early in the period. Winds will veer WNW/NW and increase during the day from 5-10 mph to 15-20 mph (breezy) with frequent higher gusts (up to around 25 mph) due to a tightening pressure gradient. With the reinforcement of cooler/drier air, expect afternoon maxes 7-10 degrees below climo, from the M60s across the I-4 corridor with U60s southward and perhaps a 70F reading for a couple spots. However, the breezy/gusty NW winds will make it feel much cooler. Tonight will be a bit cooler with widespread L-M40s for most, except M-U40s at immediate Space & Treasure coasts. A few normally cooler spots across the rural interior may realize U30s for mins. WNW winds will diminish to near 5 mph this evening and overnight. Towards sunrise lowest wind chill readings will fall into the M-U30s (1-3hrs). Sat-Sun...The aforementioned mid-level troughing pushes away from the Eastern Seaboard and deeper into the Atlc, with zonal flow returning to much of the Gulf Coast States and southeast U.S. Surface high pressure across the Deep South and northern GoMex will translate eastward and take up residency across the FL peninsula by late Sat, continuing its grip across the area thru the duration of this period. NW winds 7-12 mph on Sat will diminish and be light Sat night-Sun night as the pgrad relaxes. Conditions remain dry and below normal for highs/lows. Highs on Sat mainly in the U60s for most with a slight warming trend into Sun with readings in the L-M70s. Continued "cool" lows Sat night, with L-M40s across the interior and U40s for along the coast - perhaps a few L50s for immediate Treasure Coast. For Sun night, expect U40s to L50s for much of the interior/Volusia coast and M-U50s for the Space and Treasure coasts. Barrier islands will be a bit warmer. Mon-Fri...Mainly zonal flow aloft continues through the upcoming work-week. Weak high pressure a mainstay across the area, until the next formidable front forecast to push into central FL late Fri afternoon-Fri night. We continue to keep conditions dry thru the period. The warming trend started on Sun will continue with U70s to around 80F (M70s Volusia coast Mon) for Mon-Wed and generally 79-83F practically areawide Thu/Fri. Mins in the 50s for much of the interior with some L60s gradually returning E of I-95 and possibly M-U60s by Thu morning for immediate St. Lucie/Martin counties. Generally light winds thru the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 206 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Today-Tonight...Small Craft Advisories greet all marine legs as a reinforcing dry/cold front pushes southward across the area early in the period. This will increase WNW/NW winds to around 20 kts (25 kts well offshore) with higher gusts expected. Wind speeds begin to diminish later today and tonight, 13-18 kts tonight. Advisories fall off near shore at 21Z/4PM today but continue into tonight for offshore legs. Seas will build 4-6 ft near shore early in the period and 6-8 ft offshore, subsiding 3-5 ft near shore later in the day becoming 3-4 ft near shore by daybreak Sat morning and generally 4-6 ft offshore. Sat-Tue...High pressure builds into the area through the extended with continued dry conditions and much lighter winds as the pressure gradient relaxes. Poor conditions (4-6 ft seas) initially in the Gulf Stream early on Sat, with seas continuing to subside thru the weekend and early next week with generally favorable boating conditions. However, hazardous conditions may develop near inlets during the outgoing tide sometime on Sun and continuing into early next week as an increasing (ENE/NE) long period swell (12-14 seconds) is forecast. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 612 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 SKC prevailing through the period. NW winds around 15kts and gusting to 20-25kts after 14-15Z will diminish late this afternoon. Then, become around 5kts 1Z through the overnight hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 65 42 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 66 44 66 46 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 68 45 67 49 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 69 45 68 49 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 66 42 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 66 42 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 67 45 67 47 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 69 45 68 48 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ550- 552-555. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ |
| #1209175 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:12 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 506 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 337 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday and will continue to gradually warm up through tomorrow as onshore flow returns. Highs today are expected to range from the mid 70s to lower 80s and upper 70s to mid 80s tomorrow. However, overnight temperatures will remain chilly tonight with temperatures still expected to fall into the mid 40s to mid 50s inland and upper 50s to mid 60s near the coast. Limited moisture availability will keep us dry in the short term. There`s a low to medium chance for elevated fire weather conditions developing this afternoon. Relative humidity values below critical levels ranging between 15-35% will hang around for one more day with Energy Release Component values in the 75-89th percentile across the region which would be conducive for elevated fire danger conditions. However, due to weaker than ideal winds and recent trends, decided to not issue a fire danger product at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 337 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Key Messages: - Substantial warmup early this week - Low chance for a significant cool down late next week The long term will be dominated with a substantial warm up featuring high temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal Monday. The surface high pressure we have been enjoying lately will shift eastward through the weekend and give way to zonal flow aloft and onshore flow which will advect a significantly warmer airmass. A weak cold front early to mid next week will briefly bring temperatures back down to slightly above normal levels for a day. Relief to the heat could come towards the tail end of next weeks work week as models show a strong cold front that could result in daytime highs into the 60. However, confidence in that solution is currently low due to model disagreement. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 502 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF cycle. Winds will be light and variable this morning shifting to the southeast late this afternoon before becoming light a variable once again tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 337 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Weak onshore flow will return late this afternoon into this evening, strengthening to more moderate levels Saturday evening. Moderate to strong winds are expected to develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Monday before returning back to weak to moderate levels. Rain chances will be slim (less than 10%) through Monday with low chances for rain Tuesday through Thursday across the offshore waters between 20-60 nm off the Middle Texas Coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 54 81 63 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 79 44 81 56 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 80 54 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 80 50 83 58 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 77 60 78 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 80 51 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 79 51 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 75 66 77 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1209173 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:27 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 514 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 118 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Cooler and continued dry today under sunny skies and gusty WNW winds with surface high pressure west of the region and surface troughs moving offshore of the Carolinas keeping an elevated pressure gradient over the area. Early morning wind chills will feel like the 30s across inland areas to near 40 along the Atlantic coast. By late-morning, wind gusts will increase into the 20-30 mph range and continue through the late afternoon as high temperatures range from the upper 50s north of Waycross to the mid 60s across north-central FL. Winds relax after sunset as low temperatures fall into the mid/upper 30s inland tonight to the low 40s along the St. Johns River basin & Atlantic coast. Elevated winds will keep frost potential minimum toward daybreak, but there could be some patchy frost early Sat morning in wind sheltered locations. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 118 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Troughing aloft will linger along the U.S. Eastern seaboard on Saturday as a double barreled low pressure system pivots slowly northward from coastal New England towards the Canadian Maritime Region. This weather pattern will keep a dry northwesterly flow pattern in place as surface ridging migrates southeastward from the lower Mississippi Valley during the morning hours towards the northern Gulf by sunset on Saturday. Plenty of sunshine and a dry air mass will be offset by cool air advection on the heels of a northwesterly breeze, keeping highs generally in the 60-65 degree range area-wide on Saturday afternoon. These values are about 4-8 degrees below late November climatology. High pressure will then settle directly over our region during the overnight hours on Saturday night, with this feature remaining in place over our region through Sunday night. This setup will allow for excellent radiational cooling across our region, with lows expected to plummet to the mid to upper 30s at most inland locations, ranging to the lower 40s along the northeast FL coast. Patchy to areas of frost will are expected to develop during the predawn and early morning hours on Sunday, especially along the U.S. Highway 301 corridor as well as southern portions of the Suwannee Valley. Flow aloft will become zonal on Sunday and Sunday night as troughing continues lifting northeastward across the Canadian Maritime Region. Sunshine, light winds and a dry air mass will allow highs to rebound to the upper 60s and lower 70s, which is close to climatology. Another night of radiational cooling will result in lows falling to the upper 30s and lower 40s at inland locations by the predawn and early morning hours on Monday, while a light southwesterly breeze overnight keeps coastal lows in the mid to upper 40s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 118 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Zonal flow aloft will continue locally through midweek as shortwave energy migrates east-northeastward from the Plains states on Monday morning across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday and Tuesday night, then pushing across New England on Wednesday. This feature will push a dry frontal boundary across the southeastern states on Tuesday, with this boundary likely stalling across our region towards midweek as support aloft pivots away from our area. A dry air mass will linger throughout our region, with plenty of sunshine boosting highs above climatology, reaching the mid and upper 70s at inland locations each day, with afternoon sea breezes likely keeping coastal highs a few degrees cooler. Another night of radiational cooling will allow lows to fall to the 45-50 degree range inland on Monday night, ranging to the 50-55 degree range at coastal locations. Lows will then gradually increase as warm air advection develops, with 50s inland and around 60s at coastal locations on Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Another trough will amplify over the Great Lakes region by Thanksgiving Day and Friday, with this feature pushing another cold front into the southeastern states and also potentially propelling a shortwave trough quickly eastward from the southern Rockies on Thursday to the Tennessee Valley by Friday. Low level southwesterly flow will begin to moisten the air mass over our area, but only isolated shower activity is currently projected across inland portions of southeast GA by model blends from Thursday afternoon through Friday at this time. Temperatures ahead of this approaching cold front will warm to the upper 70s and lower 80s by Thanksgiving Day, with above normal warmth potentially continuing into Friday for coastal southeast GA, northeast and north central FL. Lows on Thursday night will remain above average, with 50s inland and lower 60s along the Atlantic coast. Some cooling is possible across inland portions of southeast GA by Friday as the cold front progresses southeastward into our area. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 513 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period under WNW winds. After daybreak, winds increase to sustained 12-16 kts through late afternoon with gusts near 25 kts at all terminals. Winds subside continuing a WNW direction with speeds near 3-6 kts inland to 7-9 kts coast through 12z. && .MARINE... Issued at 118 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Small craft advisory conditions continue for all local waters through tonight with occasional gusts to gale force over the outer waters. Winds begin to relax into Saturday with Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions expected. Surface high pressure builds over the local waters Sunday and extends a ridge axis across the waters through mid-week next week with dry conditions and winds and seas below marine headline criteria. Rip Currents: A low-end moderate rip current risk continues for NE FL beaches today due to a lingering long-period easterly swell, with a low risk for SE GA beaches. A low rip current risk is expected for all local waters due to continued offshore flow through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 118 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Strong northwesterly transport winds will develop shortly after sunrise this morning, with breezy surface winds expected area-wide by the mid-morning hours. These breezy conditions will combine with critically low relative humidity values this afternoon across north central FL to create an elevated fire danger. Minimum humidity values elsewhere across northeast Florida and southeast Georgia will fall to around 30 percent, or just above critical thresholds. Good daytime dispersion values are forecast throughout our region this afternoon. Northwesterly transport winds will remain breezy on Saturday, but minimum relative humidity values are forecast to remain above critical thresholds. Lower mixing heights on Saturday will generally yield fair daytime dispersion values. Surface and transport winds will then shift to westerly on Sunday with diminishing speeds, resulting in poor daytime dispersion values area-wide. A dry air mass will remain in place, but humidity values are expected to remain above critical thresholds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 56 36 61 36 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 59 41 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 61 38 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 63 42 63 43 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 61 36 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 64 36 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1209172 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:12 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 401 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 309 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 The short term forecast will remain characterized by cool and dry conditions, though a gradual warming trend is expected to begin as we approach the middle of the weekend. For now, another cool night is in store with many surface stations as of 3PM CST again running below model guidance for overnight temperatures. Portions of the northern zones have dropped into the upper 30s, with temperatures so far in the mid to upper 40s elsewhere. A dry and relatively pleasant day is on the cards to close out the work week with broad surface high pressure in the Central Plains being the dominant synoptic feature. Look for daytime highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s, light winds, and mostly clear skies. Lows should yet again reach the upper 30s to lower 40s. A pattern shift gets underway on Saturday as the aforementioned area of high pressure pushes off to the east, slowly bringing about a return to an onshore flow regime for our area. With the return of WAA and moisture transport, we should see highs in the mid/upper 70s for most of the area while lows will sit in the 50s. Cady && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 309 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 The extended forecast looks to be an active one as a series of cold fronts move into and across SE TX next week. With the surface high shifting further east of the region and pres- sures falling over the Southern Plains on Sun, the tightening grad- ient should result in increasing onshore winds/warming temperatures for Sun/Mon. Highs are expected to reach the lower to mid 80s as we start of the week. The next cold front is expected to drop SSE from the Plains and into the area by Mon night. While low-level moisture is going to be limited for much of the CWA...we could see some very isolated showers form by early Tues morning as the boundary reaches our coastal counties/Gulf waters. Thereafter, global models are indicating that this front will even- tually stall along to just off the coast by Tues night. However, we will be seeing the rapid return of onshore winds by Wed as the next system moves off the Rockies and begins deepening over the Southern Plains. Isolated to scattered convection will be possible on Wed as the upper jet pattern becomes more favorable and low-level moisture increase (PWs 1.4"-1.6"). All of this will be setting the stage for a second stronger cold front, which should move into and across the CWA on Thanksgiving Day (if models do verify). So, the potential is there for a warmish soggy turkey day this year. 41 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1109 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 VFR/SKC with light winds overnight. VFR on Friday and Friday evening with some cirrus (SCT250) moving across the area. For winds, N to NE during the day, generally in a 4 to 8 knots range, becoming NE to E and weakening late in the afternoon and evening and lasting through Friday night. 42 && .MARINE... Issued at 309 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Light northerly winds and low seas will prevail today. But as high pressure begins moving east of the region...winds will become more easterly tonight/tomorrow. Onshore winds are set to return by late tomorrow night...strengthening on Sun as the gradient tightens (in response to the next system moving into the Southern Plains). SCEC or SCA flags may be needed by Mon. The next cold front is expected to move into the bays/nearshore waters by early Tues morning, then stalling in/near this same region by Tue night. Moderate to strong onshore winds will be returning on Weds along with the possibility of Caution/Advisory flags once again. A second stronger cold front is forecast to move into SE TX on Thurs (Thanksgiving Day)...maybe not reaching the Gulf waters until sometime that night. Stay tuned. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 72 42 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 72 45 74 56 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 70 61 73 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1209171 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:12 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 404 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 241 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Overall synoptic picture is upper trough off the west coast and one over the NE with an upper high over much of the nation. These features are not moving much but will eventually. The cool dry air will continue to filter into the area today but as a sfc high moves over the area, this will stop by Saturday. Sat night will still be cool but moderating temps will begin to add degrees to each days highs and lows over the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 241 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 The sfc high will move east bringing return flow back to the area starting Sunday. This will begin to warm the area through Monday. Another short wave will move down the back side of the NE trough over the weekend. This will help bring another cold front toward the area by Tue. But as this front nears, it will feel the tug of the west coast upper trough becoming progressive. The sfc front will stall close or over the area by late Tue. With not much forcing, it will also cause sh/ts on the southern end of the front to weaken and dissipate. But there could be a few that help raise rain chances for Tue. This could be more of a fog issue with this stalling front. The Tue front will get yanked back north as the next stronger cold front moves toward the area. This front should be near or moving through toward the end of next week. We will need to get closer to this fronts timing to define any strength and duration of storms with this feature. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 241 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 VFR this cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 241 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Marine flags will lower today as winds ease. A sfc high will center itself over the northern gulf coast over the weekend before moving east Sunday bringing return flow back to all marine areas. Winds should remain in the 10-15kt range by the start of the week as a new cold front moves closer to the area. This front is expected to stall along or near the coast Tue before moving back north ahead of the next stronger cold front that should visit toward the end of the week. Southerly winds should remain, once they set in, until this late week front moves through. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 60 33 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 66 39 70 47 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 64 37 67 47 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 64 46 67 53 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 64 39 65 49 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 67 36 69 45 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ536-538-550-552- 555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ538-550-552-555- 557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1209170 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 445 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)... Issued at 423 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 A clear and chilly morning in paradise. Dry and cool airmass remains in place through the period as high pressure builds from the west. The main weather concern will be temperatures overnight dropping into the upper 30s north to around 50 degrees south beginning tonight. Afternoon highs struggle to reach 70 degrees today and especially on Saturday. Clear skies and breezy north to northwesterly winds prevail. && .LONG TERM (SUN-THU)... Issued at 423 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 High pressure remains in control during the long term. Lows on Sunday morning will still be in the upper 30s north to around 50 degrees south, however. building ridge will support a gradual warm up in temperatures. At the same time, dewpoints remain in the 40s and 50s...perfect to do outdoor activities. By mid week, highs climb back into the 80s. Winds will also decrease and marine conditions improve during the period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 423 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Prevailing VFR conditions anticipated with gusty north to northwesterly winds. Dry and cool airmass will keep TAF sites rain free through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 423 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 High pressure continues to build over the region through the next several days. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Gulf waters through early this morning. Winds will remain elevated to exercise caution levels into tonight. Pressure gradient relaxes allowing winds to drop below criteria for the weekend into early next week. Pleasant boating conditions return through the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 423 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Ridge of high pressure continues to build into the weekend with dry and cool conditions prevailing. Minimum humidity values between 35-55 percent with some areas flirting below 35 percent, especially over interior areas and the Nature Coast. Breezy north to northwesterly winds will also produce some moderate to high dispersions over the next few days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 69 48 68 49 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 73 49 70 48 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 70 38 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 71 50 70 50 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 67 39 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 69 54 68 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
| #1209169 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 349 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Saturday) Issued at 349 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 The coldest airmass of the season so far continues to envelope the forecast area. Surface high pressure continues to settle in driving cold air advection across the area promoting dry, cool weather. Morning lows are on track to bottom out in the lower to middle 30`s for most locations with upper 30`s to lower 40`s nearer the coast. Afternoon temperatures will likewise be below normal, topping out in the upper 50`s inland and lower to middle 60`s nearer the coast. Tonight will once again be a chilly night with lows falling into the lower to middle 30`s for most locations, upper 30`s nearer the coast. Given the expectation for temperatures in the 33 to 36 range over much of the area tonight, we have opted to issue a Frost Advisory for all of the forecast area excluding the immediate coast. If confidence can increase on locations over the interior falling to 32 or lower, a freeze warning may be needed in the afternoon forecast package. MM/25 && .SHORT AND LONG TERMS... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 349 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 An anomalously deep upper trough will shift eastward into the western Atlantic through the weekend with mainly zonal flow along with gradually rising heights. Surface high pressure centered over the area Saturday will support another cool day with highs mainly in the lower 60s interior to the middle 60s along the coast. Lows Sunday morning will be a few degrees warmer with lows in the middle 30s interior to the middle 40s along the coast. The surface high should shift east on Sunday and allow for return southerly low level flow to become re-established. This will result in a quick rebound in temperatures with most locations rising back into the lower to middle 70s. Dry and much warmer conditions will persist through the first part of the Thanksgiving holiday week. Temperatures will range from the middle to upper 70s with lows in the 50s interior to the lower and middle 60s along the coast. Latest GEFS and ENS ensemble guidance supports a weak shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. An associated weak cold front will drop southeast across the Mississippi Valley Tuesday before stalling along or just north of the coast and washing out Tuesday night. There may be just enough moisture return to support isolated to scattered showers mainly across the interior portions of the region. Further south near the coast, most locations should remain dry as mid level ridging maintains its influence and any low level convergence weakens with southward extent. Interior southeast Mississippi, interior southwest Alabama, and south central Alabama may cool down a few degrees behind the front on Tuesday afternoon with highs in the upper 60s. Further south, expect the unseasonably warm temperatures to continue with mainly mid to upper 70s, especially along the coast. Warm weather can be expected across the entire area Wednesday through Thanksgiving Day as southerly flow returns areawide. Dry weather Wednesday will give way to isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms on Thanksgiving Day as moisture increases ahead of a more potent upper trough approaching from the northwest. This stronger trough will help to drive a stronger cold front southeast across the area, penetrating deep into the south- central Gulf of Mexico Thursday night and Friday. Any showers and thunderstorms should come to an end by Friday morning as much drier air advances southward behind the front passage. Canadian high pressure will build into the Deep South behind the front for the end of the week and into the weekend. This will result in another noticeable cool down for Friday into the weekend. Temperatures behind this front drop 10 to 20 degrees with highs on Friday ranging from the upper 50s across interior areas to around 70 degrees early in the day across the western Florida Panhandle, with falling temperatures through the afternoon under strong cold air advection. Strong northwest winds can also be expected behind the frontal passage, as colder air overspreads the relatively warm coastal waters resulting in deep mixing and a shallow unstable layer developing. This will likely support another round of Small Craft Advisory level winds and potentially even Gale conditions across the offshore marine areas. Cool and dry weather will continue into next weekend with winds gradually diminishing by next Saturday. /JLH && .MARINE... Issued at 349 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Gulf waters through 9am this morning. Winds quickly drop to a light to moderate offshore flow by late afternoon into the evening hours. Light northwesterly to northerly flow prevails for Saturday, becoming a light and variable flow into early next week. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 63 37 65 43 73 58 77 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 63 42 64 49 71 61 76 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 62 46 66 51 71 61 77 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 60 33 64 36 71 49 76 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Waynesboro 60 33 64 37 72 51 76 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 Camden 59 33 60 35 68 49 74 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 Crestview 62 34 67 37 73 49 79 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ALZ051>058. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for ALZ051>060-261-262. FL...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for FLZ201-203-205. MS...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for MSZ067. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ650-655- 670-675. && $$ |
| #1209168 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 339 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 337 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday and will continue to gradually warm up through tomorrow as onshore flow returns. Highs today are expected to range from the mid 70s to lower 80s and upper 70s to mid 80s tomorrow. However, overnight temperatures will remain chilly tonight with temperatures still expected to fall into the mid 40s to mid 50s inland and upper 50s to mid 60s near the coast. Limited moisture availability will keep us dry in the short term. There`s a low to medium chance for elevated fire weather conditions developing this afternoon. Relative humidity values below critical levels ranging between 15-35% will hang around for one more day with Energy Release Component values in the 75-89th percentile across the region which would be conducive for elevated fire danger conditions. However, due to weaker than ideal winds and recent trends, decided to not issue a fire danger product at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 337 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Key Messages: - Substantial warmup early this week - Low chance for a significant cool down late next week The long term will be dominated with a substantial warm up featuring high temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal Monday. The surface high pressure we have been enjoying lately will shift eastward through the weekend and give way to zonal flow aloft and onshore flow which will advect a significantly warmer airmass. A weak cold front early to mid next week will briefly bring temperatures back down to slightly above normal levels for a day. Relief to the heat could come towards the tail end of next weeks work week as models show a strong cold front that could result in daytime highs into the 60. However, confidence in that solution is currently low due to model disagreement. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 VFR conditions are expected with light and variable winds tonight into tomorrow morning. Weak southeast flow returns late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 337 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Weak onshore flow will return late this afternoon into this evening, strengthening to more moderate levels Saturday evening. Moderate to strong winds are expected to develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Monday before returning back to weak to moderate levels. Rain chances will be slim (less than 10%) through Monday with low chances for rain Tuesday through Thursday across the offshore waters between 20-60 nm off the Middle Texas Coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 54 81 63 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 79 44 81 56 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 80 54 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 80 50 83 58 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 77 60 78 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 80 51 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 79 51 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 75 66 77 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1209166 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 535 AM AST Fri Nov 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The drier weather is about to come to an end as a line of showers now approaching the southern boundary of our forecast area signals the entry of a moist air mass. Temperatures will rise a little today and remain warm tomorrow, but additional showers will end the warming trend. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are indicated for most of the upcoming seven days. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday... Another calm night was observed across the northeastern Caribbean under clear to partly cloudy skies. Satellite and radar observations indicated passing showers moving over eastern Puerto Rico, and over the local Caribbean and Atlantic waters. These showers were moving quickly, leaving minor accumulations over the area. Minimum temperatures were in the mid to upper 70s along the coastal portions of the islands, with few locations reaching the lower 80s. Meanwhile, lows were in the mid 60s across the Cordillera Central. Winds were light and gentle from the southeast. Today, variable weather conditions will prevail as a broad moisture field moves from the Caribbean waters into the local area. At the low levels, a surface high pressure will continue to strengthen over the Central Atlantic, promoting southeasterly winds. Meanwhile, at the upper levels a polar trough is anticipated to exit the eastern coast of the U.S. today and will continue to move eastwards for the next few days. As both of these features migrate in the Atlantic, abundant tropical moisture will move into the area promoting the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms across the islands. The latest precipitable water content analysis for Saturday has values between 1.7 to 2.0 inches. By Sunday, winds will shift and become from the east, bringing additional moisture from a perturbation east of the islands. Prevailing winds from the southeast in combination with abundant moisture will result in warm temperatures over the next few days. Daytime temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 80s along the coastal and urban areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and in the upper 70s to low 80s in the Cordillera Central of Puerto Rico. Minimum temperature will drop to the low to mid 60s in the higher elevations, and will remain in the 70s for the rest of the area. .LONG TERM...Monday through Friday... At upper levels, the sub-tropical jet over Cuba will slide just south of the polar jet well north of the Leeward Islands, This sub-tropical jet which will more or less coincide with the location of a cold front will be unable to come much closer to the area due to high pressure that stretches from the Central Caribbean to the tropical Atlantic along 20 north. The upper level high will drift a little south during the period. A perturbation in the lower levels mentioned above will approach the area and cross the Windward Islands from the east early Sunday morning to bring additional moisture to the area. This moisture will move quickly past the forecast area to the south and feed the developing north-south trough north of Panama while pulling drier air in from the east over us on Monday. As the trough develops a low over the eastern tip of Jamaica, winds will become more southerly and bring more moisture from the southeast Caribbean for continued shower activity. Then on Thursday and Friday as the low near Jamaica extends a trough to the north northeast, a trough will brush the northern part of our forecast area as an anti- cyclonic eddy forms off the tip of Cabo Rojo, sustaining the modest flow of moisture across the islands. 500 mb temperatures will be mostly minus 5 to minus 6 during the period, so there will be a chance of thunderstorms--mainly during the afternoons over Puerto Rico and over the local waters at night. Although some local urban and small stream flooding could develop, showers should move just fast enough to prevent major river rises during the period. Nevertheless most areas will have at least some rain each day. && .AVIATION... (06 TAFs) Mainly VFR conds are expected to prevail across all terminals during the next 24 hrs. Aftn SHRA may result in VCSH across all the terminals in PR and the USVI thru 22/23Z. VRB winds will continue thru 22/14Z, then shifting and prevailing from the SE btw 8-10 kts with land and sea breeze variations thru 22/22Z. && .MARINE...Seas of 4 to 5 feet will continue in the Atlantic with mostly northerly swell. With seas of less than 2 feet in the shadows of the islands. Another northwest to north swell will enter the area on Sunday and slowly decay the following Thursday and Friday, but in the meantime small craft advisories will likely be needed for the Atlantic waters. && .BEACH FORECAST...Moderate rip current risk will prevail along the coasts exposed to the northerly swell, but on Sunday the risk will become high as a new swell train descends onto the northern coasts. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1209165 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:30 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 412 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low lingers over the area today before moving offshore tonight into Saturday. As a result, gusty winds and cool temperatures continue today along with light rain across the northern half of the area. Weak high pressure builds over the area late in the weekend, bringing a gradual warmup for the first half of next week. Unsettled weather returns late this week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 355 AM EST Friday... Key Messages... - A Freeze Warning remains in effect early this morning across interior northeast NC and SE VA (where the growing season is still in effect). - Wind chills in the mid to upper 20s are expected this morning. - Cold, light rain moves in across the northern portion of the area this afternoon into this evening. Morning sfc analysis shows a potent upper level low centered across S PA/MD. At the surface, low pressure was located over W CT/MA. This surface low is expected to pivot SW today as the Fujiwhara Effect pulls it closer to the local area due to a lobe of vorticity pivoting over the Appalachians and E across the Carolinas today. Temps early this morning have dropped to around freezing across the Piedmont (where clearing has occurred) with mid 30s E (apart from upper 30s to around 40F along the coast). A patch of mid level clouds has moved into S central VA and NE NC. However, these clouds are expected to move E over the next few hours with clear skies expected prior to sunrise. Between the clearing skies and winds diminishing, still expect most inland locations to drop to around/below freezing just before sunrise, with some upper 20s possible mainly W of the I-95 corridor. The Freeze Warning remains in effect across mainly interior portions of SE VA and NE NC (where the growing season has not yet ended). Given that winds will be localized and variable, only the more sheltered and rural locations within the Warning are likely to see a freeze, with suburban/urban areas more likely to stay just above freezing. Additionally, wind chills this morning are expected to drop into the mid-upper 20s across the area. Clear skies this morning will allow for temps to rise into the upper 40s for most by early this afternoon with temps expected to remain mostly steady in the afternoon as stratus moves in from N to S. As the aforementioned surface low moves SW this afternoon, a band of light rain pivots into N half of the FA. QPF looks to remain light with generally just a few hundredths of an inch of rain across VA and 0.15-0.20" across the MD Eastern Shore. Forecast soundings appear to show a small potential for graupel/snow mixing in with the rain at times if precip rates are high enough. This is due to very anomalously cold temps aloft, saturation through the DGZ, dry air at the surface (allowing for cooler wet bulb temps), and temps above freezing in the lowest 0.5km. Any chance for a few snowflakes would be rate-driven with heavier precip more likely to pull down colder air aloft towards the surface and therefore allow for temps to drop to around 39-40F. At this time, the best potential appears to be across MD where steeper low level lapse rates (and cooler temps just above the surface) exist in conjunction with locally higher QPF. However, this is too conditional to reflect in the gridded forecast given the very marginal temps. Rain tapers off from W to E this evening as the low moves offshore. Lows tonight are not expected to be as cold with temps in the upper 30s to around 40F for most. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM EST Friday... Key Messages... - Near normal temperatures and dry weather is expected this weekend. High pressure (centered over the Southeast) builds into the area this weekend with moderating temps and dry weather expected. Highs in the mid-upper 50s (most in the upper 50s) Sat and upper 50s to lower 60s Sun are expected. Lows remain chilly in the mid 30s inland to lower 40s along the coast Sat night and mid 30s NW to upper 30s to around 40F SE Sun night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 410 AM EST Friday... Key Messages... - Warm temperatures are expected early next week. - A cold front moves through Tuesday with cooler weather returning. - An unsettled pattern develops by late week with rain chances increasing. An upper level ridge builds into the East Coast Mon into Tue with high pressure centered off the Southeast coast. This will allow for warmer weather with highs in the mid-upper 60s (locally around 70F) Mon and Tue. An upper level trough and surface low move across the Great Lakes on Tue with a trailing cold front moving across the area during the day. This will allow for cooler weather returning for Wed with highs in the 50s. Given the forcing displaced well to the N of the local area, confidence in showers on Tue is low. However, have kept a slight chance (15-20% PoPs) for a few isolated showers late Mon night into Tue. An unsettled pattern develops for late week with models continuing to show the potential for an area of low pressure impacting the area around Thanksgiving into Fri. Confidence in timing, track, and intensity remain low. However, NBM PoPs have increased with rain now likely on Thanksgiving. Rain chances continue into Fri. Both the GEFS and EPS have around 0.5" of rain across most of the area. Additionally, it looks to be a cold rain for the NW portion of the FA given the potential for CAD to develop. As such, expect a wide range in highs Thu with the NW much cooler than the SE. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 100 AM EST Friday... SCT mid level clouds remain over the area through most of the night before clearing late tonight into Fri morning. A band of light rain pivots around a surface low over NE PA Fri afternoon, moving over RIC and SBY. Forecast soundings show cold temps aloft with above freezing temps in the lowest few thousand feet and surface temps in the upper 40s for most. Therefore, expect snow aloft to melt into rain before reaching the ground. However, dry air in the lowest portion of the atmosphere support wet bulb temps in the upper 30s to around 40F. As such, a few snow flakes mixed in with the rain are possible if rates are high enough. The best chance is north central VA to the Eastern Shore including SBY, but can`t rule out a few flakes at RIC. Additionally, MVFR VIS is possible at SBY mainly late Fri afternoon into Fri evening. Light rain moves offshore by midnight Fri night with clearing overnight. Apart from precip, low level stratus move in from NW to SE late Fri morning into Fri afternoon. CIGs remain mainly VFR apart from MVFR CIGs from the Northern Neck to the Eastern Shore late Fri afternoon into Fri night. A brief period of IFR CIGs is possible between 00-04z Sat. Otherwise, W winds 5-10 kt continue overnight, increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt Fri afternoon into early Fri night before gradually diminishing. Outlook: Winds shift to the NW and remain gusty Saturday, before diminishing Saturday night into Sunday. Mainly dry conditions continue into mid week. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EST Friday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all area waters this morning through this afternoon. - Gale Warnings are in effect for all area waters later this afternoon into Saturday morning. Early this morning, ~980 mb low pressure remains over the Northeastern US. This low will linger in the same vicinity today into tonight, before gradually lifting further to the northeast, with high pressure returning later this weekend. Winds have diminished somewhat from earlier, with WNW winds generally ranging from 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts. Seas are running around 3 to 4 feet, and waves in the Chesapeake Bay around 2 to 3 feet. The general "lull" in the winds will continue through this morning and into the early afternoon, before an abrupt change later this afternoon into this evening. Another strong surge of cooler/drier air is pushed down across the local waters later this afternoon, with winds rapidly increasing to 25 to 30 knots around or shortly after 1 PM. The highest wind speeds will be from approximately 7 PM through 1 AM with sustained winds ranging from 30 to 35 knots and gusts of 35 to 40 knots (locally higher). As a result, Gale Warnings are in effect for all waters starting at 1 PM/18 UTC this afternoon and continuing into tonight or Saturday morning. Winds begin to gradually diminish late tonight through Saturday morning as high pressure starts to build back into the area and the pressure gradient begins to relax. Gale Warnings will need to be converted back to SCAs, with SCA conditions expected to linger through the day Saturday and likely continuing into a portion of Saturday night. Calmer conditions then return Sunday into early next week, before another front potentially crosses the waters Tuesday. Seas/waves are expected to remain similar to what is currently being observed through this afternoon. Seas and waves build later this afternoon into tonight with the surge of wind. Seas will range from 4 to 7 feet and waves 4 to 5 feet (locally 6 feet). Seas diminish during the day Saturday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ012>017- 030>032. VA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ089-090-092- 093-096-097. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ630>634-638. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Saturday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. && $$ |
| #1209164 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:12 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 401 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will remain the primary feature through early next week. A cold front could approach the area towards the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Rest of the morning: Ongoing CAA will continue across the region, with temperatures continuing to drop over the next couple of hours. Skies remain clear, and dry conditions are expected through the morning. There looks to be enough wind to keep significant frost from forming, except in the most sheltered of areas. Today: A deep upper-level low will meander over the Northeast, allowing for CAA and dry air to continue to advect through the region. Once the morning inversion breaks, winds aloft will mix down and cause for another breezy day with westerly winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Skies will remain clear allowing for an ample amount of sunshine. However, despite this, it is expected to be the coldest day this week with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Tonight: By the evening, winds should decouple after sunset and allow for decent radiational cooling overnight bringing lows down to the mid to upper 30s. Conditions should be more supportive of patchy frost tonight compared to the night before, however a Frost Advisory does not look likely at this time. Lake Winds: Winds over Lake Moultrie have diminished quite a bit overnight. They are expected to pick back up after sunrise with speeds of 15 to 20 kt and gusts just shy of 25 kt. However, by the evening they should relax back down to 10 to 15 kt with gust up to 20 kt. A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Long wave trough axis will ripple east over the Atlantic on Saturday. Mid-level flow across the forecast area will become generally zonal flow on Sunday, tilting slightly from SW to NE on Monday. On Saturday, the center of surface high pressure should remain centered over Deep South, resulting in light WNW winds across the forecast area. Using a blend of MOS, high temperatures with sunny conditions should favor values in the low 60s, 5 to 7 degrees below normal. Saturday night, the center of sfc high pressure is forecast to slide over the FL/GA line. After sunset, winds should become light to calm across the forecast area. The combination of clear sky with little to no wind should provide several hours of excellent radiational cooling conditions. Dewpoints should gradually narrow through the night, with most areas reaching the upper 90s RH during the pre-dawn hours. Low temperatures should range in the mid 30s, with a few spots reaching freezing across portions of the inland counties. It appears that areas of frost will develop inland late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Elsewhere, scattered frost is possible, especially just inland of the coastal counties. The frost potential will remain highlighted in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Sunday through Monday, the forecast area is expected to remain between high pressure over the western Atlantic as a cold front across the middle CONUS. This pattern will provide the region with steady return flow and rising LLVL thicknesses. Temperatures should return to normal on Sunday, with highs in the upper 60s. On Monday, temperatures will continue to moderate, with highs on Monday reaching the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Medium range guidance indicates that a cold front is timed to approach the CWA from west Monday night, then pushing across on Tuesday. The front is expected to bring a band of SCT to BKN cloud cover across the region. Temperatures ahead of the front should remain well above normal, high Tuesday ranging in the mid to upper 70s. Wednesday, high pressure should slide across the region in the wake of the cold front. Conditions should remain dry with temperatures near normal. GFS and ECMWF indicate that broad longwave trough will amplify over the Southern Plains Wednesday night into Thanksgiving. This disturbance will ripple across the region during the daylight hours Thanksgiving into Friday. During this period, the forecast will feature SCHC PoPs for light showers. Temperatures should remain mild, with the warmest values expected Thanksgiving afternoon in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 22/06z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR. Gusty conditions will continue into Saturday morning. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Today: Westerly winds will persist at 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt over the waters with 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the Charleston Harbor. Seas will range 3 to 5 ft across much of the waters except for the outer coastal waters reaching to 6 ft. For the Charleston Harbor, gusts should fall below 25 kt Friday evening so the Advisory is scheduled to come down at 23z/6 PM. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all waters through tonight. Saturday through Wednesday: High pressure will remain across the coastal waters this weekend into earl next week, then a weak cold front is timed to push across the region on Tuesday. Winds through the period should favor values of 10 kts or less. Seas are forecast to range between 1-2 ft. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ045. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ330. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ350-352- 354. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1209163 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:57 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 356 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low lingers over the area today before moving offshore tonight into Saturday. As a result, gusty winds and cool temperatures continue today along with light rain across the northern half of the area. Weak high pressure builds over the area late in the weekend, bringing a gradual warmup for the first half of next week. Unsettled weather returns late this week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 355 AM EST Friday... Key Messages... - A Freeze Warning remains in effect early this morning across interior northeast NC and SE VA (where the growing season is still in effect). - Wind chills in the mid to upper 20s are expected this morning. - Cold, light rain moves in across the northern portion of the area this afternoon into this evening. Morning sfc analysis shows a potent upper level low centered across S PA/MD. At the surface, low pressure was located over W CT/MA. This surface low is expected to pivot SW today as the Fujiwhara Effect pulls it closer to the local area due to a lobe of vorticity pivoting over the Appalachians and E across the Carolinas today. Temps early this morning have dropped to around freezing across the Piedmont (where clearing has occurred) with mid 30s E (apart from upper 30s to around 40F along the coast). A patch of mid level clouds has moved into S central VA and NE NC. However, these clouds are expected to move E over the next few hours with clear skies expected prior to sunrise. Between the clearing skies and winds diminishing, still expect most inland locations to drop to around/below freezing just before sunrise, with some upper 20s possible mainly W of the I-95 corridor. The Freeze Warning remains in effect across mainly interior portions of SE VA and NE NC (where the growing season has not yet ended). Given that winds will be localized and variable, only the more sheltered and rural locations within the Warning are likely to see a freeze, with suburban/urban areas more likely to stay just above freezing. Additionally, wind chills this morning are expected to drop into the mid-upper 20s across the area. Clear skies this morning will allow for temps to rise into the upper 40s for most by early this afternoon with temps expected to remain mostly steady in the afternoon as stratus moves in from N to S. As the aforementioned surface low moves SW this afternoon, a band of light rain pivots into N half of the FA. QPF looks to remain light with generally just a few hundredths of an inch of rain across VA and 0.15-0.20" across the MD Eastern Shore. Forecast soundings appear to show a small potential for graupel/snow mixing in with the rain at times if precip rates are high enough. This is due to very anomalously cold temps aloft, saturation through the DGZ, dry air at the surface (allowing for cooler wet bulb temps), and temps above freezing in the lowest 0.5km. Any chance for a few snowflakes would be rate-driven with heavier precip more likely to pull down colder air aloft towards the surface and therefore allow for temps to drop to around 39-40F. At this time, the best potential appears to be across MD where steeper low level lapse rates (and cooler temps just above the surface) exist in conjunction with locally higher QPF. However, this is too conditional to reflect in the gridded forecast given the very marginal temps. Rain tapers off from W to E this evening as the low moves offshore. Lows tonight are not expected to be as cold with temps in the upper 30s to around 40F for most. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM EST Friday... Key Messages... - Near normal temperatures and dry weather is expected this weekend. High pressure (centered over the Southeast) builds into the area this weekend with moderating temps and dry weather expected. Highs in the mid-upper 50s (most in the upper 50s) Sat and upper 50s to lower 60s Sun are expected. Lows remain chilly in the mid 30s inland to lower 40s along the coast Sat night and mid 30s NW to upper 30s to around 40F SE Sun night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 335 PM EST Thursday... Key Messages... - High pressure moves back in bringing dry weather back across the region to start off the weekend. - Rain potential increases by the end of the week with another possible system. The latest 12z/21 ensemble guidance is in decent agreement into early next week. A ridge and surface high pressure will move into the area bringing dry and pleasant conditions across the CWA. By the middle of the week ensembles begin to disagree in placement and strength of a clipper system ushering in a cold front that will move across the CWA. Where the low is currently forecasted the region will see no precipitation from the system but will experience its cold front. By Thanksgiving day Pops are reintroduced into the forecast as the ensembles hint on a potential system moving across the region. There is again disagreement with the models on strength and placement. However, they do have a decent single on a potential system bringing in showers across the region. Pops are ranges between 15-30% for both Thursday and Friday. Temperature wise both Monday and Tuesday will be pleasant with highs warming back into the upper 50s to around 60s on Monday, with highs in the lower 60s by midweek. Early morning lows warm back into the 40s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Then Wednesday highs will cool down into the lower the 50s behind the front. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 100 AM EST Friday... SCT mid level clouds remain over the area through most of the night before clearing late tonight into Fri morning. A band of light rain pivots around a surface low over NE PA Fri afternoon, moving over RIC and SBY. Forecast soundings show cold temps aloft with above freezing temps in the lowest few thousand feet and surface temps in the upper 40s for most. Therefore, expect snow aloft to melt into rain before reaching the ground. However, dry air in the lowest portion of the atmosphere support wet bulb temps in the upper 30s to around 40F. As such, a few snow flakes mixed in with the rain are possible if rates are high enough. The best chance is north central VA to the Eastern Shore including SBY, but can`t rule out a few flakes at RIC. Additionally, MVFR VIS is possible at SBY mainly late Fri afternoon into Fri evening. Light rain moves offshore by midnight Fri night with clearing overnight. Apart from precip, low level stratus move in from NW to SE late Fri morning into Fri afternoon. CIGs remain mainly VFR apart from MVFR CIGs from the Northern Neck to the Eastern Shore late Fri afternoon into Fri night. A brief period of IFR CIGs is possible between 00-04z Sat. Otherwise, W winds 5-10 kt continue overnight, increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt Fri afternoon into early Fri night before gradually diminishing. Outlook: Winds shift to the NW and remain gusty Saturday, before diminishing Saturday night into Sunday. Mainly dry conditions continue into mid week. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EST Friday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all area waters this morning through this afternoon. - Gale Warnings are in effect for all area waters later this afternoon into Saturday morning. Early this morning, ~980 mb low pressure remains over the Northeastern US. This low will linger in the same vicinity today into tonight, before gradually lifting further to the northeast, with high pressure returning later this weekend. Winds have diminished somewhat from earlier, with WNW winds generally ranging from 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts. Seas are running around 3 to 4 feet, and waves in the Chesapeake Bay around 2 to 3 feet. The general "lull" in the winds will continue through this morning and into the early afternoon, before an abrupt change later this afternoon into this evening. Another strong surge of cooler/drier air is pushed down across the local waters later this afternoon, with winds rapidly increasing to 25 to 30 knots around or shortly after 1 PM. The highest wind speeds will be from approximately 7 PM through 1 AM with sustained winds ranging from 30 to 35 knots and gusts of 35 to 40 knots (locally higher). As a result, Gale Warnings are in effect for all waters starting at 1 PM/18 UTC this afternoon and continuing into tonight or Saturday morning. Winds begin to gradually diminish late tonight through Saturday morning as high pressure starts to build back into the area and the pressure gradient begins to relax. Gale Warnings will need to be converted back to SCAs, with SCA conditions expected to linger through the day Saturday and likely continuing into a portion of Saturday night. Calmer conditions then return Sunday into early next week, before another front potentially crosses the waters Tuesday. Seas/waves are expected to remain similar to what is currently being observed through this afternoon. Seas and waves build later this afternoon into tonight with the surge of wind. Seas will range from 4 to 7 feet and waves 4 to 5 feet (locally 6 feet). Seas diminish during the day Saturday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ012>017- 030>032. VA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ089-090-092- 093-096-097. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ630>634-638. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Saturday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. && $$ |
| #1209162 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:57 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 348 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Broad area of low pressure will remain in place across the eastern U.S. through Saturday. High pressure then builds in late in the weekend and into next week continuing the dry weather pattern. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 200 AM Friday... - Breezy and cold today An unusually deep upper level low currently resides over the Northern Mid-Atlantic States, with a broad area of cyclonic flow over the Eastern U.S. A shortwave embedded within this flow will dive south out of the Ohio Valley this morning, then cross the Carolinas this afternoon. Beneath the upper low, a SFC low will drop south from PA into NY, leading to a tightening pressure gradient to the south across VA/NC. This combined with deepening mixing through the day will support increasing westerly winds from late-morning through the afternoon hours. Widespread wind gusts of 25-35 mph are expected. Of note, the latest hi-res guidance suggests the potential exists for some areas to see 35-40+ mph gusts, especially from mid- afternoon on. Along the OBX, wind gusts may flirt with advisory criteria (ie. 45 mph), but confidence in impacts is low, therefore we`ll hold off on any wind headlines for now. Notably low thickness values plus continued CAA through the day should make it hard to reach 50 degrees for most areas today. Some of the coldest available guidance suggests upper 40s for highs. Should this occur, this would be nearly 15-20 degrees below normal. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM Friday... - Continued breezy and cold tonight - Lower risk of freezing temperatures tonight In the wake of today`s shortwave, breezy conditions are expected to continue for much of the night thanks to a continued moderate pressure gradient. In light of this, it appears most areas won`t decouple, which should help keep temps from getting as low as they got this morning. Even the colder available guidance suggests most areas will stay above freezing. Across far SW sections of ENC, there may be a brief window of opportunity for winds to decouple. Should this occur, there would be a risk of temps falling into the 30-32 degree range (mainly Duplin and inland Onslow Counties). Based on all of the above, we`ll plan to forego any frost/freeze headlines tonight. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 3:30 AM Friday... - Warming trend through Tuesday - Multiple fronts mid to late next week A deep upper level low currently centered over the northeast will continue to move northeastward on Saturday. Across the Carolinas, zonal flow will take over as the low moves offshore and high pressure will begin to push north into the area. High pressure will remain dominant until Tuesday when the next wave is forecast to traverse the eastern U.S. Saturday...The offshore transition of the upper low and increasing thickness at the surface will allow temps to reach values 5-10 degrees higher than today (upper 50s/low 60s). Gusty winds will continue through the day, but there will be a downward trend through the day. Sustained winds of 10-15 mph with 20+ mph gusts will persist through late afternoon. A lack of cloud cover and light winds will allow for efficient radiative cooling, so lows will be back down to the mid 30s across the coastal plain (mid 40s beaches). Sunday - Tuesday...Zonal flow aloft and building high pressure at the surface will support a dry and gradually warmer forecast for the end of the weekend and start of next week. Highs will increase from the low to mid 60s on Sunday to upper 60s to low 70s on Tuesday. A front is forecast to cross ENC on Tuesday afternoon, but guidance is not in agreement on how wet or dry this system will be, so I opted to lean towards the drier guidance at this time and capped PoPs at 20%. Wednesday - Thursday...Wednesday looks mostly dry as of now as high pressure will briefly resume. By Wednesday evening, however, a stationary boundary will setup across ENC and linger through Thanksgiving. The forecast has trended wetter and supports widespread stratiform rain, but PoPs have been capped at chance at this time. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 06z Saturday/... As of 1215 AM Friday... - Gusty west winds on Friday An anomalous upper level low is currently spinning over the Northern Mid-Atlantic States, with a broad area of cyclonic flow aloft over much of the eastern U.S. Within this flow, an upper level wave will dive south out of the Ohio Valley and into the Carolinas on Friday, moving offshore by Friday evening. A tightening pressure gradient beneath this feature, plus daytime mixing, will support increasing westerly winds by mid to late- morning across ENC, with gusts of 20- 30 kt common. Gusty winds should continue into Friday evening. Within this regime, periods of SCT/BKN mid-level clouds will move across the area, but any CIGs should be VFR. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 3:30 AM Friday...Predominantly VFR conditions persist through the period. Breezy westerly winds will continue Saturday at 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt (higher along the coast). The wind field will generally be SW at 5-10 kt through the remainder of the period. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 230 AM Friday... - Gale Warning remains in effect this evening through Saturday morning Northwesterly winds of 10-20kt this morning will become westerly by this afternoon and increase to 15-25kt. By this evening, the winds will further increase, with sustained winds of 20-30kt expected. From late this afternoon through tonight, frequent gusts of 30-40kt are expected, and a Gale Warning remains in effect where confidence in 34kt+ gusts is the highest. Of note, the mouth of the Neuse River may see occasional gusts to 34kt, but guidance continues to suggest this area will stay just below gales, and we`ve opted to keep that area out of the Gale Warning. Seas of 3-6 ft across the coastal waters this morning will gradually build to 4-7 ft by this evening and into tonight. For the outer reaches of the central and northern waters, seas of 7-8 ft will be possible. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 3:30 AM Friday...Marine conditions will gradually improve on Saturday. A Gale Warning is in effect everywhere except the inland rivers through Saturday morning. Winds will be decreasing through the day, but SCA conditions will persist through Saturday evening, lasting the longest for waters north of Cape Hatteras. By late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, all waters will be below SCA criteria. Winds will generally be 10-20 kt with 2-4 ft seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 230 AM Friday... - Dry and breezy conditions again today Northwesterly winds this morning will become westerly through the day today, and increase to 10-15 mph, with gusts of 20-30 mph expected by this afternoon. Meanwhile, dry air continuing to advect into ENC will help keep RHs in the 30s and 40s percent. Because of the cold airmass in place, RHs shouldn`t get as low as they otherwise could if it were just as dry, but warmer. In light of this, significant fire concerns aren`t anticipated. That said, if any fire does start, the breezy conditions will make fire control difficult. Similar conditions are expected again on Saturday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 310 PM Thursday...Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Outer Banks Dare county late Fri afternoon through Sat afternoon, with potential for soundside coastal flooding, inundation 1-2 ft agl. Main concern is for soundside areas favored in westerly flow, Duck to Hatteras Village (including areas in Roanoke Island). && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ029-044>046- 079>081-090>092-094-193>195-198-199. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Saturday for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ131- 135-150-152-154-156-158-230-231. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ131-135-150-152-154-156-158-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ136-137. && $$ |
| #1209161 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:57 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 351 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Below normal temperatures will continue through Saturday night. High pressure will then move off the coast early next week bringing warmer temperatures. A passing cold front and another storm system are likely to impact the area mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A potent mid-level trough will pivot across the region today with the lowest 500mb heights expected to cross overhead this afternoon. This will result in chilly high temperatures only reaching the low to mid 50s, which are near to a few degrees below our coldest normal highs in the mid-upper 50s in mid-January. As the cold core of the trough passes overhead today, expect a mix of clouds and sun this afternoon as stratocumulus clouds accompany its passage. Behind the trough late this afternoon and evening, any clouds will shift away or dissipate as heights rise and a robust subsidence inversion scours out low-level moisture. Thus, a clear night is in store with dew points holding in the upper 20s to low 30s. The pressure gradient is expected to slacken from southwest to northeast as high pressure builds in while surface low pressure over the Northeast gradually pulls away to the northeast. The result will be a general decrease in winds through the night, with some areas in the Pee Dee region likely to go calm. This supports patchy frost in sheltered areas and areas near bodies of water, where dew points are locally higher. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Highlights: *Dry with below to near normal temperatures *Frost/freeze possible inland Sat night Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: Troughing to start the period will quickly give way to more ridging which means increasing temperatures, diminishing winds and a continuation of dry conditions. Temps should fall into the mid 30s across most inland areas Saturday night meaning some frost will be possible. Can`t even rule out some spots hitting freezing as well if radiational cooling gets maximized. Note however that the need for a Frost Advisory or Freeze Watch/Warning will be predicated on whether the growing season ends before this. On Sunday, temperatures should climb back to near normal levels in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Highlights: *Above normal temps through at least early week *A cold front and another storm system could bring cooler temps and showers mid week *Moderate to High through Mon night *Low to Moderate starting Tue Details: High pressure will be shifting offshore bringing warmer temps and slowly increasing moisture levels. A cold front looks to approach Tuesday and possibly move through Tuesday night. Rain chances should be pretty low due to limited moisture/forcing with this front, although can`t rule out at least a few showers. This front should return back north as a warm front into or through the area Wednesday night ahead of another more potent storm system approaching from the west. Moisture and forcing appear more abundant with this system and thus rain chances should be greater, although some uncertainty remains regarding rain timing/amounts. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR through the period. Gusty winds are the primary concern today as the boundary layer grows, permitting gusty winds reaching 20-25 kts during the afternoon. Gusty winds will subside during the evening with the loss of heating, but expect continued steady westerly winds into the first half of tonight. Extended Outlook...Expect VFR through at least early Tuesday as high pressure maintains control, with a low risk of restrictions later Tuesday as a cold front approaches. Gusty winds through Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... After a temporary lull in winds this morning with speeds below SCA criteria, a resurgence in wind is expected this afternoon with gusts increasing to 25-30 kts, and these will continue through tonight. Seas will hold in the 2-4 ft range across much of the waters except for higher waves reaching around 5 ft in the outer coastal waters offshore of Cape Fear. Saturday through Tuesday...Expect improving conditions this weekend as high pressure builds in leading to a weaker pressure gradient. Small Craft Advisory conditions could linger into Saturday morning but otherwise no major wind/sea concerns are expected, although winds will pick up a bit Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ |
| #1209160 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:57 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 245 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 243 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 The BRO CWFA will remain on the northeast periphery of 500 mb high pressure that will remain centered just west of the Baja Peninsula. A northwest-to-southeast flow associated with the mid- level high will produce dry weather for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the period. Meanwhile, surface high pressure easing towards the east will allow an onshore flow to redevelop, persist, and intensify. Overnight low and daytime high temperatures will gradually warm, with values at well above normal levels for this time of year. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 243 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 The long term forecast period will be a pleasant and mostly stable period along with being rain free as well. With a mid-level ridge being the main influence for the weather over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley for the long term forecast period and even some zonal flow aloft, more aloft dry air is expected to move into the area. Thus, the dry and stable air aloft will greatly hinder any chance of rain development for the long term forecast period. Also with the influence of the mid-level ridge in place, the area will see a summer-like weather pattern resulting in higher than normal temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with low temperatures in the 60s through the period. Meanwhile, on the surface, southeasterly to southerly winds are expected to persist through the period each day. While the winds are expected to be generally light each day, however by Sunday the pressure gradient is expected to tighten as a low pressure system interacts with high pressure over the Southeast. Around mid to late week, a upper-level trough will push across the Southeast and bring a front towards the area. The current trend in the models still shows a large difference of in timing for the front. Currently the GFS brings the front in sooner and the ECMWF is much later. However, based on the current model analysis the front does not seem to have much of an impact on the temperatures in the long term forecast period. Further shifts will need to continue to monitor the forecast trends to see how the model trends continue to evolve with this event along with any changes for the potential impacts from this cold front. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1012 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Winds should be light and variable overnight, becoming calm at times. Tomorrow, winds should be light and easterly. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Today through Saturday...Buoy 42020 reported southwest winds around 2 knots gusting to around 6 knots with seas slightly under 2.5 feet with a period of 6 seconds at 1:50 CST/7:50 UTC. Generally light winds and low seas will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast through the period courtesy of high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are not likely to be needed. Saturday Night through Thursday...Mostly favorable conditions with light to moderate southeasterly to southerly winds and low to moderate seas. The main exceptions to this pattern will be on Sunday and Thursday as both days the pressure gradient is expected to tighten, which will result in stronger southeasterly winds that will mostly likely require Small Craft Exercise Caution. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 61 82 68 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 80 56 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 83 59 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 80 56 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 71 78 74 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 61 81 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1209159 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:45 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 331 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Several disturbances drop across the area over the next couple of days, bringing a prolonged period of gusty winds and chilly temperatures. Weak high pressure builds over the area late in the weekend, bringing a gradual warmup for the first half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 110 AM EST Friday... Key Messages... - A second surge of cooler air comes in tonight, helping to drop temperatures into the upper 20s to low-mid 30s. - A Freeze Warning remains in effect overnight/early Friday morning across interior northeast NC and SE VA (where the growing season is still in effect). The latest analysis shows a potent upper level low centered across SE PA. At the surface, low pressure was located over S CT. The coastal sfc low is progged to become the primary system as it retrogrades NNW overnight into NY state, while the other low dives SE towards the central/southern Appalachians, gradually becoming absorbed as the upper system slowly pivots SE. Across the local area, temperatures have dropped into the mid- upper 30s inland with a westerly wind of 5-10 mph (locally higher at the coast). Tonight is not an ideal setup for decoupling given the pressure gradient and increasing mid level cloud cover through most of the night. However, clouds clear for the last couple hours of the night with winds diminishing. As such, still expect most inland locations to drop into the 30-35F range overnight, with some upper 20s possible, mainly along and W of the I-95 corridor. The Freeze Warning remains in effect across mainly interior portions of SE VA and NE NC (where the growing season has not yet ended). Given that winds will be localized and variable, only the more sheltered and rural locations within the Warning are likely to see a freeze, with suburban/urban areas more likely to stay just above freezing. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 335 PM EST Thursday... Key Messages... - Another disturbance dropping across the region will provide another day of gusty winds, and increasing clouds for Friday. - Widespread showers are expected NE zones by Fri aftn. A few instances of graupel or even some wet snowflakes are possible over northern portions of the area late Friday morning into early afternoon. - Winds will diminish late this weekend as the trough exits the region. The final shortwave will be transversing across the area Friday morning as the surface low moves over eastern Pennsylvania and the upper low diving into the southern Mid-atlantic. This shortwave will be slightly stronger than the other two. It will bring in a stronger shot of CAA with highs in the mid/upper 40s across the Piedmont and northern zones, with lower 50s along the SE coast. Pops have been extended further south with chc PoPs down to the I-64 corridor, and likely to categorical pops farther to the NE. Given the relatively shallow moisture layer between 850-700 mb farther south, would expect minimal QPF. With the moisture layer being primarily in the DGZ this could result in a couple reports of graupel and or even a few snowflakes primarily north of I-64. This will only last for a brief period of time late Friday morning before temperatures start to warm. Ground temperatures would be much too warm for any impacts, but certainly a sharp contrast from just a few days ago. Showers will taper down Friday evening allowing the region to dry out. Fridays lows will be slightly warmer as the upper low moves out of the area and ridging takes place. Early morning low temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Saturday and Sunday will be slightly warmer as ridging continues to take place across the region. Highs both days in the upper 50s and lower 60s. The lows will be in the middle to upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 335 PM EST Thursday... Key Messages... - High pressure moves back in bringing dry weather back across the region to start off the weekend. - Rain potential increases by the end of the week with another possible system. The latest 12z/21 ensemble guidance is in decent agreement into early next week. A ridge and surface high pressure will move into the area bringing dry and pleasant conditions across the CWA. By the middle of the week ensembles begin to disagree in placement and strength of a clipper system ushering in a cold front that will move across the CWA. Where the low is currently forecasted the region will see no precipitation from the system but will experience its cold front. By Thanksgiving day Pops are reintroduced into the forecast as the ensembles hint on a potential system moving across the region. There is again disagreement with the models on strength and placement. However, they do have a decent single on a potential system bringing in showers across the region. Pops are ranges between 15-30% for both Thursday and Friday. Temperature wise both Monday and Tuesday will be pleasant with highs warming back into the upper 50s to around 60s on Monday, with highs in the lower 60s by midweek. Early morning lows warm back into the 40s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Then Wednesday highs will cool down into the lower the 50s behind the front. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 100 AM EST Friday... SCT mid level clouds remain over the area through most of the night before clearing late tonight into Fri morning. A band of light rain pivots around a surface low over NE PA Fri afternoon, moving over RIC and SBY. Forecast soundings show cold temps aloft with above freezing temps in the lowest few thousand feet and surface temps in the upper 40s for most. Therefore, expect snow aloft to melt into rain before reaching the ground. However, dry air in the lowest portion of the atmosphere support wet bulb temps in the upper 30s to around 40F. As such, a few snow flakes mixed in with the rain are possible if rates are high enough. The best chance is north central VA to the Eastern Shore including SBY, but can`t rule out a few flakes at RIC. Additionally, MVFR VIS is possible at SBY mainly late Fri afternoon into Fri evening. Light rain moves offshore by midnight Fri night with clearing overnight. Apart from precip, low level stratus move in from NW to SE late Fri morning into Fri afternoon. CIGs remain mainly VFR apart from MVFR CIGs from the Northern Neck to the Eastern Shore late Fri afternoon into Fri night. A brief period of IFR CIGs is possible between 00-04z Sat. Otherwise, W winds 5-10 kt continue overnight, increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt Fri afternoon into early Fri night before gradually diminishing. Outlook: Winds shift to the NW and remain gusty Saturday, before diminishing Saturday night into Sunday. Mainly dry conditions continue into mid week. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EST Friday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all area waters this morning through this afternoon. - Gale Warnings are in effect for all area waters later this afternoon into Saturday morning. Early this morning, ~980 mb low pressure remains over the Northeastern US. This low will linger in the same vicinity today into tonight, before gradually lifting further to the northeast, with high pressure returning later this weekend. Winds have diminished somewhat from earlier, with WNW winds generally ranging from 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts. Seas are running around 3 to 4 feet, and waves in the Chesapeake Bay around 2 to 3 feet. The general "lull" in the winds will continue through this morning and into the early afternoon, before an abrupt change later this afternoon into this evening. Another strong surge of cooler/drier air is pushed down across the local waters later this afternoon, with winds rapidly increasing to 25 to 30 knots around or shortly after 1 PM. The highest wind speeds will be from approximately 7 PM through 1 AM with sustained winds ranging from 30 to 35 knots and gusts of 35 to 40 knots (locally higher). As a result, Gale Warnings are in effect for all waters starting at 1 PM/18 UTC this afternoon and continuing into tonight or Saturday morning. Winds begin to gradually diminish late tonight through Saturday morning as high pressure starts to build back into the area and the pressure gradient begins to relax. Gale Warnings will need to be converted back to SCAs, with SCA conditions expected to linger through the day Saturday and likely continuing into a portion of Saturday night. Calmer conditions then return Sunday into early next week, before another front potentially crosses the waters Tuesday. Seas/waves are expected to remain similar to what is currently being observed through this afternoon. Seas and waves build later this afternoon into tonight with the surge of wind. Seas will range from 4 to 7 feet and waves 4 to 5 feet (locally 6 feet). Seas diminish during the day Saturday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ012>017- 030>032. VA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ089-090-092- 093-096-097. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ630>634-638. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Saturday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. && $$ |
| #1209158 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:45 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 335 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Strong low pressure near western CT early this morning will continue to move westward today into southern NY, then meanders east and northeast into the Canadian Maritimes through the weekend. Rains gradually decrease early this morning, with a lull in the rain for most of today, but rain chances increase again late this afternoon and tonight before pulling away into early Saturday. Considerable cloudiness for this weekend with gusty northwest winds. Brief dry weather returns on Monday. The rest of the week looks active, with one storm system around Tuesday spreading rain showers. Blustery, cooler and dry for Wednesday, then monitoring for additional storminess around Thanksgiving or Black Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Key Messages * Showers come to an end across eastern MA/RI this morning but linger a bit longer across western MA and CT * Another round of showers develops mid-afternoon and continues into Saturday morning * Gusty northwest winds around 35 mph expected Saturday afternoon 330 AM Update Today The center of the surface low-pressure system responsible yesterday/last nights rainfall is retrograding west into New York at this hour. Steady precipitation continues across most of MA, but has begun to wane across CT and RI. As the surface low continues to pivot west into New York, the associated dry slot will work its way over southern New England as winds taken on a south/southeast component. This will lead to a dry start to the day Friday with perhaps some decent sunshine across eastern MA and RI through the afternoon hours. Showers/unsettled weather may linger across western MA/CT as those areas will be closer to the surface low- pressure center over New York. By early to mid-afternoon the associated upper-level low will begin to dig southeast back over The Mid-Atlantic. Concurrently, short-wave energy embedded in the broader cyclonic circulation will approach southern New England from roughly southeast of Nantucket. This will support another round of rainfall for the region this afternoon and overnight. Shower activity will be greatest across eastern MA, RI, and The Cape/Islands. High temps around normal across eastern MA and RI near 50 degrees, but a bit cooler further west in the mid to upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Key Messages * Another round of showers develops Friday afternoon and continues into Saturday morning * Gusty northwest winds around 35 mph expected Saturday afternoon Tonight Showers continue overnight as the aforementioned short-wave energy approaching from the southeast pivots north into The Gulf of Maine. Expect the heaviest precipitation over The Cape/Islands and east/northeastern MA. An additional 0.25 to 0.5 inches will be in the cards for these areas. Further across the interior, only expecting modest shower activity with a tenth to a quarter of an inch possible. As the surface low moves north into The Gulf of Maine, winds will shift to the north/northwest. This will advect cooler air into southern New England and support chilly temperatures tonight into tomorrow morning. In fact, the cooler air aloft may support some snow at elevations above 1500 feet in The Berkshires or northern Worcester Hills, but no significant accumulations or impacts are expected. Low temps bottom out in the low to mid 30s west of I- 495 and mid to upper 30s east of I-495. Saturday Coastal low-pressure system continues to meander over The Gulf of Maine for most of the day Saturday. This will continue to support showers across the eastern areas. Further west we should begin to see some gradually clearing as northwest flow advects drier air into the region. Air mass will be cooler with 925 hPa temps aloft close to the freezing mark. This would translate to surface high temps in the mid to upper 40s on Saturday afternoon. Of greater concern for Saturday will be the potential for gusty northwest winds. Latest model guidance has trended toward a stronger low-level jet on Saturday afternoon with 925/850 hPa wind speeds peaking between 35 and 50 knots respectively. BUFKIT soundings support momentum transfer of 35+ knots to the surface or perhaps even higher depending on the model. The tricky part of this forecast will be the determining the efficiency of mixing in the boundary layer,particularly across eastern MA where cloud cover will be more extensive. Model derived low-level lapse rates are coming in around 8 to 9 C/Km for Saturday afternoon, which would imply enough mixing to support stronger northwest wind gusts. Right now thinking 30 knots (~35 mph) gusts on Saturday afternoon will be in the cards for much of southern New England. Some locations across southeastern MA, The Cape, and Islands may even approach wind advisory criteria (40+ knot gusts, 45+ mph). Confidence in reaching those values is not high enough to warrant wind headlines at this time, but we will be monitoring this portion of the forecast closely over the next 24 hours. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Highlights: * Gradually drying out this weekend with seasonably cool temps, but with NW gusts 25-40 mph Sat night into Sun early PM. * Tranquil and seasonable Mon. * Frontal system for Tue spreads lighter showers early on Tue, then dry and blustery for Wed. * Monitoring more active weather around the Thanksgiving holiday or Black Friday, some of which could be wintry, but uncertainty is very large. Details: Saturday Night and Sunday: Strong low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will continue to slowly move ENE through the rest of the weekend. Tight NW pressure gradient will continue to drive blustery NW winds. Approach of secondary shortwave disturbance moving through Ontario SE into New England late Sat night into early on Sun will increase a NWly low- level jet, which global models indicate ~40-45 kt at 850 mb. Expect a cloudy and blustery night Sat night with gusts 25-35 mph, on the higher end of that range over the higher terrain. As mixing depth increases with a bit more in the way of sun on Sunday, we could see gusts punch into the 30-40 mph range into the early afternoon, near Advisory levels, then decreasing into the midafternoon as the low level jet weakens. The gusty conditions will make it feel much cooler than forecast temps; lows Sat night in the mid to upper 30s may feel more like the upper 20s to near freezing with the NW breeze, and highs 45-50 on Sunday. Clearing skies will lead to a chilly Sun night with lows in the upper 20s to the lower to mid 30s, but will feel cooler with a continued NW wind around 10-15 mph. Monday: Monday likely to be the pick of the forecast with high pressure ridging in, offering full sun and a slackening wind. Modest warm advection with 925 mb temps up to around +4 to +6C brings highs into the low to mid 50s. Monday Night thru Tuesday Night: The 500 mb pattern becomes more active starting in this period, continuing into the workweek, as spokes of shortwave trough energy from the West Coast move across the CONUS. A lead shortwave moves into the Gt Lakes and Northeast region into Tue, bringing a risk for showers. However models vary on the strength of this wave with the ECMWF on the weaker side, while the GFS and Canadian are a little stronger and would offer a little more QPF. Highs around the 50s. Wednesday: Low pressure will have moved into the Maritimes early on Wed, and other than northwest breezes, early look at conditions for the biggest holiday travel day seem favorable with partly to mostly sunny conditions and highs in the 40s to near 50. Thursday/Friday: Pacific frontal system moves across the central US, leading to a developing storm system in the central Plains around Thurs. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists in the details, though there appears to be enough colder air in place to allow for some wintry weather possibilities Thurs and/or Fri, provided there is a favorable storm track. Kept PoP on the higher end of Chance but will be monitoring model developments very closely. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update: Through 12z Friday: High confidence in trends, though moderate on the exact timing. IFR ceilings with MVFR/IFR visbys in RA/FG with E/ENE winds around 15-25 kt with gusts 25-30 kt, will continue at least for a couple hours. As low pressure now over southern CT moves westward into eastern NY between 07-12z, expect a rapid decrease in rain and improving visbys from south to north, along with winds shifting from SE to S with a decrease in speed to around 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. The southerly windshift will also lead to improvement in ceilings toward BKN/OVC MVFR, with VFR over southeast MA. See TAFs for timing, though these could slip by an hour or two. Today: Moderate confidence. Intermittent light rains with MVFR clouds for the interior, but for RI and eastern MA, a lull in rains are expected for part of the day with SCT-BKN VFR bases and southerly gusts around 20-25 kt. Late in the day (thinking after 20z, although exact timing is still a bit uncertain), another round of steadier rains develops over the southeast waters and rotates NNW into at least eastern MA and RI by 00z. As this rain moves in, expect ceilings lowering to MVFR levels, S winds shifing to SE/E around 10-12 kt and visbys around 4-6 SM in -RA/RA. Tonight: Moderate confidence. VFR/MVFR deteriorates to MVFR/IFR ceilings at most airports, with steadier RA at 4-6 SM vsby for at least eastern MA and RI, possibly as far west as BAF/BDL but the western extent is still uncertain. Rain should pull away toward the NE after 06z. SE/E winds become NE around 10 kt thru midnight, and then NW around 5-10 kt overnight before increasing in speed to 10-15 kt by daybreak Sat. Saturday: Moderate to high confidence. BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR ceilings with slow improvement trends. Gusty NW winds around 15 kt with gusts 25-35 kt. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. IFR, wind-swept rains on ENE winds gusting to 35 kt for another couple hours. Windshift to SE/S around ~08-09z with rapid improvement in cigs/vsbys toward MVFR-VFR. Otherwise, VFR with S around 10-15 kt/gusts to 25 kt most of the day. Another round of rain develops after 19z with developing SE/E winds and deteriorating cigs. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. IFR/MVFR ceilings with MVFR rains on N winds initially. Abrupt windshift to SE/S 08-10z with categories trending MVFR. Otherwise, MVFR with more intermittent -RA today on S winds around 10 kt. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance RA. Sunday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Sunday Night through Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Saturday Low-pressure shift northwest away from the coastal waters today. This will support diminishing winds for this morning and tonight. Winds become more southerly today and while weaker, will still be blowing from to 10 to 20 knots. Gale force wind gusts come to an end this morning and generally become bounded by sustained winds or perhaps a few knots over (~15 knots). As the afternoon progresses, low-pressure approaching the waters from southeast of Nantucket will introduce a new round of rain along with a return to easterly winds which will shift to the north/northwest tonight into Saturday morning. Conditions begin to deteriorate again on Saturday with sustained northwest winds rising to 20 to 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots by Saturday evening. Gale Warnings will be likely for the coastal waters Saturday afternoon through most of Sunday. Seas gradually come down with winds today as well and may fall below SCY criteria overnight. This will of course will be short-lived as the gale force winds expected Saturday afternoon brings seas back to the 5 to 8 foot range over the outer marine zones. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain. Sunday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ231>235- 237-250-251-254>256. && $$ |
| #1209157 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:12 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 257 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 206 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 - Poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue through tonight. - Below normal temperatures forecast to persist through this weekend, and will be the coldest temperatures of the season so far. - Remaining dry over the next several days, with fire sensitive conditions continuing into this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 206 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Current-Tonight...A cool start to the morning with areawide 40s near sunrise expected, and L50s for the barrier islands. Lowest wind chill readings around sunrise may fall into the U30s to L40s across much of the area. Vigorous mid-level troughing continues along the Atlc Seaboard. This will push a dry, reinforcing cold front across ECFL early in the period. Winds will veer WNW/NW and increase during the day from 5-10 mph to 15-20 mph (breezy) with frequent higher gusts (up to around 25 mph) due to a tightening pressure gradient. With the reinforcement of cooler/drier air, expect afternoon maxes 7-10 degrees below climo, from the M60s across the I-4 corridor with U60s southward and perhaps a 70F reading for a couple spots. However, the breezy/gusty NW winds will make it feel much cooler. Tonight will be a bit cooler with widespread L-M40s for most, except M-U40s at immediate Space & Treasure coasts. A few normally cooler spots across the rural interior may realize U30s for mins. WNW winds will diminish to near 5 mph this evening and overnight. Towards sunrise lowest wind chill readings will fall into the M-U30s (1-3hrs). Sat-Sun...The aforementioned mid-level troughing pushes away from the Eastern Seaboard and deeper into the Atlc, with zonal flow returning to much of the Gulf Coast States and southeast U.S. Surface high pressure across the Deep South and northern GoMex will translate eastward and take up residency across the FL peninsula by late Sat, continuing its grip across the area thru the duration of this period. NW winds 7-12 mph on Sat will diminish and be light Sat night-Sun night as the pgrad relaxes. Conditions remain dry and below normal for highs/lows. Highs on Sat mainly in the U60s for most with a slight warming trend into Sun with readings in the L-M70s. Continued "cool" lows Sat night, with L-M40s across the interior and U40s for along the coast - perhaps a few L50s for immediate Treasure Coast. For Sun night, expect U40s to L50s for much of the interior/Volusia coast and M-U50s for the Space and Treasure coasts. Barrier islands will be a bit warmer. Mon-Fri...Mainly zonal flow aloft continues through the upcoming work-week. Weak high pressure a mainstay across the area, until the next formidable front forecast to push into central FL late Fri afternoon-Fri night. We continue to keep conditions dry thru the period. The warming trend started on Sun will continue with U70s to around 80F (M70s Volusia coast Mon) for Mon-Wed and generally 79-83F practically areawide Thu/Fri. Mins in the 50s for much of the interior with some L60s gradually returning E of I-95 and possibly M-U60s by Thu morning for immediate St. Lucie/Martin counties. Generally light winds thru the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 206 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Today-Tonight...Small Craft Advisories greet all marine legs as a reinforcing dry/cold front pushes southward across the area early in the period. This will increase WNW/NW winds to around 20 kts (25 kts well offshore) with higher gusts expected. Wind speeds begin to diminish later today and tonight, 13-18 kts tonight. Advisories fall off near shore at 21Z/4PM today but continue into tonight for offshore legs. Seas will build 4-6 ft near shore early in the period and 6-8 ft offshore, subsiding 3-5 ft near shore later in the day becoming 3-4 ft near shore by daybreak Sat morning and generally 4-6 ft offshore. Sat-Tue...High pressure builds into the area through the extended with continued dry conditions and much lighter winds as the pressure gradient relaxes. Poor conditions (4-6 ft seas) initially in the Gulf Stream early on Sat, with seas continuing to subside thru the weekend and early next week with generally favorable boating conditions. However, hazardous conditions may develop near inlets during the outgoing tide sometime on Sun and continuing into early next week as an increasing (ENE/NE) long period swell (12-14 seconds) is forecast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1222 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 VFR conditions, with SKC prevailing. NW winds through the period, increasing to around 15kts Friday morning, with gusts to 20-25kts. Gusty winds are forecast to subside by late afternoon, then diminish in the evening hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 206 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Today-Sun...A reinforcing dry/cold front pushes thru the area early today. Breezy/gusty WNW/NW winds are forecast during the day, with speeds diminishing this evening, increasing back to 7-12 mph on Sat, then the pressure gradient weakens further with light winds resulting Sun through early next week. Low min RH values in the U20s to L-M30s for most of ECFL today. Min RHs on Sat will range from L30s to U30s, then for Sun L-M30s N/W of I-4 with slightly improving values south/east of here. The SPC has an elevated fire weather risk across much of the area today thru Sun. Sensitive fire weather conditions will exist. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 65 42 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 66 44 66 46 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 68 45 67 49 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 69 45 68 49 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 66 42 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 66 42 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 67 45 67 47 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 69 45 68 48 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ550- 552-555. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ |
| #1209156 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:57 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 248 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Broad area of low pressure will remain in place across the eastern U.S. through Saturday. High pressure then builds in late in the weekend and into next week continuing the dry weather pattern. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 200 AM Friday... - Breezy and cold today An unusually deep upper level low currently resides over the Northern Mid-Atlantic States, with a broad area of cyclonic flow over the Eastern U.S. A shortwave embedded within this flow will dive south out of the Ohio Valley this morning, then cross the Carolinas this afternoon. Beneath the upper low, a SFC low will drop south from PA into NY, leading to a tightening pressure gradient to the south across VA/NC. This combined with deepening mixing through the day will support increasing westerly winds from late-morning through the afternoon hours. Widespread wind gusts of 25-35 mph are expected. Of note, the latest hi-res guidance suggests the potential exists for some areas to see 35-40+ mph gusts, especially from mid- afternoon on. Along the OBX, wind gusts may flirt with advisory criteria (ie. 45 mph), but confidence in impacts is low, therefore we`ll hold off on any wind headlines for now. Notably low thickness values plus continued CAA through the day should make it hard to reach 50 degrees for most areas today. Some of the coldest available guidance suggests upper 40s for highs. Should this occur, this would be nearly 15-20 degrees below normal. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM Friday... - Continued breezy and cold tonight - Lower risk of freezing temperatures tonight In the wake of today`s shortwave, breezy conditions are expected to continue for much of the night thanks to a continued moderate pressure gradient. In light of this, it appears most areas won`t decouple, which should help keep temps from getting as low as they got this morning. Even the colder available guidance suggests most areas will stay above freezing. Across far SW sections of ENC, there may be a brief window of opportunity for winds to decouple. Should this occur, there would be a risk of temps falling into the 30-32 degree range (mainly Duplin and inland Onslow Counties). Based on all of the above, we`ll plan to forego any frost/freeze headlines tonight. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 315 AM Thursday... - Trending warmer late weekend into early next week A highly amplified upper level pattern this week will transition to a lower confidence zonal flow aloft pattern as we move into the week of Thanksgiving. At the surface, a broad area of cyclonic flow will reside across the Eastern U.S. through Saturday thanks to persistent low pressure off the New England coast. Late in the weekend and into early next week, high pressure will build in across the Southeast U.S. By the middle of next week, medium range guidance differ quite a bit, but the potential exists for a front to move through the Carolinas a day or so either side of Thanksgiving. Saturday: Yet another potent shortwave will traverse the Carolinas late Friday into Friday night. This wave will be accompanied by another surge of gusty winds, with peak gusts of 25- 35 mph for most of ENC, with higher gusts to 40 mph possible along the OBX. Increased CAA associated with the wave will not only support gusty winds, but also colder temps. By Saturday, thicknesses begin to increase, which should allow temps to top out about 5-10 degrees warmer than Friday. Steep lapse rates beneath the anomalous upper low plus modest low-mid level moisture may allow a few diurnal showers to develop Friday. However, recent ensemble guidance suggests the chance is <10%, so we`ll keep a mention out of the forecast for now. Drier air works in aloft on Saturday, further lowering the risk of showers. Sunday - Monday: High pressure is forecast to be centered off to our south over Florida, allowing a west or southwest low- level flow to develop. This should allow temperatures to gradually warm into early next week, with highs potentially topping out near 70 once again by Monday. Winds will be noticeably lighter as well. Tuesday - Thursday: From a 50,000 ft view, zonal flow aloft is forecast to reside across the CONUS next week. Within this flow, medium range guidance show significant differences, primarily focused on an upper level trough forecast to move ashore along the U.S. West Coast, and how it evolves as it moves downstream through the week. One camp of guidance suggests this wave will dampen with time, leading to a mostly uneventful cold front passage on Tuesday, followed by cool and dry conditions lasting through Thanksgiving Day. In the other camp, Tuesday`s front stalls, with a more significant wave riding along the front late next week. That second camp would lead to a more eventful Thanksgiving travel period compared to the first camp. Something to watch in the coming days. For now, our forecast will reflect the cooler, drier, and less eventful scenario. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 06z Saturday/... As of 1215 AM Friday... - Gusty west winds on Friday An anomalous upper level low is currently spinning over the Northern Mid-Atlantic States, with a broad area of cyclonic flow aloft over much of the eastern U.S. Within this flow, an upper level wave will dive south out of the Ohio Valley and into the Carolinas on Friday, moving offshore by Friday evening. A tightening pressure gradient beneath this feature, plus daytime mixing, will support increasing westerly winds by mid to late- morning across ENC, with gusts of 20- 30 kt common. Gusty winds should continue into Friday evening. Within this regime, periods of SCT/BKN mid-level clouds will move across the area, but any CIGs should be VFR. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 315 AM Thursday... - Gusty west to northwest winds tonight into Saturday A potent upper level wave will move through this evening, leading to a renewed surge of gusty winds into Saturday. During this time, gusts of 20-35kt are expected. VFR conditions look to prevail Saturday into early next week. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 230 AM Friday... - Gale Warning remains in effect this evening through Saturday morning Northwesterly winds of 10-20kt this morning will become westerly by this afternoon and increase to 15-25kt. By this evening, the winds will further increase, with sustained winds of 20-30kt expected. From late this afternoon through tonight, frequent gusts of 30-40kt are expected, and a Gale Warning remains in effect where confidence in 34kt+ gusts is the highest. Of note, the mouth of the Neuse River may see occasional gusts to 34kt, but guidance continues to suggest this area will stay just below gales, and we`ve opted to keep that area out of the Gale Warning. Seas of 3-6 ft across the coastal waters this morning will gradually build to 4-7 ft by this evening and into tonight. For the outer reaches of the central and northern waters, seas of 7-8 ft will be possible. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 310 PM Thu... - Gale Warnings continue into Saturday morning A potent upper level wave will move through the region tonight, leading to another surge of strong west to northwest winds this evening into Saturday morning. During this time, guidance continues to show a strong signal for gale-force gusts. Winds will finally begin to lay down by late in the weekend. The building winds tonight will lead to seas building to 4-7 ft across the coastal waters, with elevated seas lasting into Saturday. Late in the weekend, seas will lay down to 2-3 ft. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 230 AM Friday... - Dry and breezy conditions again today Northwesterly winds this morning will become westerly through the day today, and increase to 10-15 mph, with gusts of 20-30 mph expected by this afternoon. Meanwhile, dry air continuing to advect into ENC will help keep RHs in the 30s and 40s percent. Because of the cold airmass in place, RHs shouldn`t get as low as they otherwise could if it were just as dry, but warmer. In light of this, significant fire concerns aren`t anticipated. That said, if any fire does start, the breezy conditions will make fire control difficult. Similar conditions are expected again on Saturday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 310 PM Thursday...Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Outer Banks Dare county late Fri afternoon through Sat afternoon, with potential for soundside coastal flooding, inundation 1-2 ft agl. Main concern is for soundside areas favored in westerly flow, Duck to Hatteras Village (including areas in Roanoke Island). && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ029-044>046- 079>081-090>092-094-193>195-198-199. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Saturday for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ131- 135-150-152-154-156-158-230-231. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ131-135-150-152-154-156-158-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ136-137. && $$ |
| #1209155 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 236 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 234 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 For today, breezy and cool conditions will prevail with clear skies behind a cold front. High temperatures will generally range from the mid to upper 50s across the northern counties to the low to mid 60s closer to the coast. The main concern will be the potential for frost early Saturday morning as winds diminish overnight with clear skies and the cold airmass in place. Low temperatures Saturday morning are expected to bottom out in the mid 30s for most of the area away from the coast with sufficient low level moisture for areas of frost. A frost advisory will likely be needed for most of the area away from the coast tonight, but the day shift can fine tune the area with another round of model guidance today. && .SHORT & LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 234 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Calm and dry conditions are expected through this term. Temperatures will begin on the chilly side, but will gradually warm through the week as a surface high traverses east, allowing for southerly flow to return to the region. Morning temperatures will start in the mid to upper 30s with wind chills in the low 30s, then warm to the mid to upper 50s by Thanksgiving Day. Afternoon temps will be in the 60s Saturday and low 70s for Sunday then warm to the upper 70s through the rest of the week. PoPs chances remain relatively low however, a cold front will approach the southeast U.S. Tuesday but will stall north of our region leaving us with a 10%-20% chance for showers and thunderstorms as we will be in an upper level zonal pattern, keeping us mainly dry. At the end of the term, global guidance is indicating a pattern change that may increase our chances for precipitation for mid-late week with an approaching upper level trough with an associated cold front. As the models come more into agreement, we will provide further updates. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 VFR conditions with clear skies are expected to prevail. Low level wind shear is expected at VLD early this morning with near calm surface winds and winds around 2000 ft around 30 knots out of the northwest. By mid-morning, surface winds will increase out of the northwest for all sites with gusts near 20 knots expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 234 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Advisory-level conditions continue today, but the winds will be starting their downward trend through the day following the frontal passage early this morning. The Small Craft Advisory should be allowed to expire this afternoon, with exercise caution conditions continuing through the overnight hours into Saturday morning. Afterwards, more tranquil boating conditions ensue with light northwesterly/northerly winds for the remainder of the weekend. As we start the work week, winds will become southerly when the surface high pressure moves east over to the Atlantic. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 234 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Dispersions will be elevated today with breezy conditions behind a cold front. Min RH values will drop into the low to mid 30s across the area this afternoon. Dispersions will decrease over the weekend as winds become light, but the dry airmass will linger. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 234 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Little to no rainfall is expected over the next few days into the start of next week. There are no flooding concerns at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 60 38 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 63 41 66 45 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 58 35 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 57 35 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 59 37 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 64 35 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 62 42 64 49 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ108-112-114. High Rip Current Risk until 3 AM EST early this morning for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon for GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1209153 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 156 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... ...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INLAND FROST POTENTIAL... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 118 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Cooler and continued dry today under sunny skies and gusty WNW winds with surface high pressure west of the region and surface troughs moving offshore of the Carolinas keeping an elevated pressure gradient over the area. Early morning wind chills will feel like the 30s across inland areas to near 40 along the Atlantic coast. By late-morning, wind gusts will increase into the 20-30 mph range and continue through the late afternoon as high temperatures range from the upper 50s north of Waycross to the mid 60s across north-central FL. Winds relax after sunset as low temperatures fall into the mid/upper 30s inland tonight to the low 40s along the St. Johns River basin & Atlantic coast. Elevated winds will keep frost potential minimum toward daybreak, but there could be some patchy frost early Sat morning in wind sheltered locations. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 118 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Troughing aloft will linger along the U.S. Eastern seaboard on Saturday as a double barreled low pressure system pivots slowly northward from coastal New England towards the Canadian Maritime Region. This weather pattern will keep a dry northwesterly flow pattern in place as surface ridging migrates southeastward from the lower Mississippi Valley during the morning hours towards the northern Gulf by sunset on Saturday. Plenty of sunshine and a dry air mass will be offset by cool air advection on the heels of a northwesterly breeze, keeping highs generally in the 60-65 degree range area-wide on Saturday afternoon. These values are about 4-8 degrees below late November climatology. High pressure will then settle directly over our region during the overnight hours on Saturday night, with this feature remaining in place over our region through Sunday night. This setup will allow for excellent radiational cooling across our region, with lows expected to plummet to the mid to upper 30s at most inland locations, ranging to the lower 40s along the northeast FL coast. Patchy to areas of frost will are expected to develop during the predawn and early morning hours on Sunday, especially along the U.S. Highway 301 corridor as well as southern portions of the Suwannee Valley. Flow aloft will become zonal on Sunday and Sunday night as troughing continues lifting northeastward across the Canadian Maritime Region. Sunshine, light winds and a dry air mass will allow highs to rebound to the upper 60s and lower 70s, which is close to climatology. Another night of radiational cooling will result in lows falling to the upper 30s and lower 40s at inland locations by the predawn and early morning hours on Monday, while a light southwesterly breeze overnight keeps coastal lows in the mid to upper 40s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 118 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Zonal flow aloft will continue locally through midweek as shortwave energy migrates east-northeastward from the Plains states on Monday morning across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday and Tuesday night, then pushing across New England on Wednesday. This feature will push a dry frontal boundary across the southeastern states on Tuesday, with this boundary likely stalling across our region towards midweek as support aloft pivots away from our area. A dry air mass will linger throughout our region, with plenty of sunshine boosting highs above climatology, reaching the mid and upper 70s at inland locations each day, with afternoon sea breezes likely keeping coastal highs a few degrees cooler. Another night of radiational cooling will allow lows to fall to the 45-50 degree range inland on Monday night, ranging to the 50-55 degree range at coastal locations. Lows will then gradually increase as warm air advection develops, with 50s inland and around 60s at coastal locations on Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Another trough will amplify over the Great Lakes region by Thanksgiving Day and Friday, with this feature pushing another cold front into the southeastern states and also potentially propelling a shortwave trough quickly eastward from the southern Rockies on Thursday to the Tennessee Valley by Friday. Low level southwesterly flow will begin to moisten the air mass over our area, but only isolated shower activity is currently projected across inland portions of southeast GA by model blends from Thursday afternoon through Friday at this time. Temperatures ahead of this approaching cold front will warm to the upper 70s and lower 80s by Thanksgiving Day, with above normal warmth potentially continuing into Friday for coastal southeast GA, northeast and north central FL. Lows on Thursday night will remain above average, with 50s inland and lower 60s along the Atlantic coast. Some cooling is possible across inland portions of southeast GA by Friday as the cold front progresses southeastward into our area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period under WNW winds. Through 12z, speeds of 4-8 kts will continue at inland terminals with speeds 6-10 kts at coastal terminals with gusts up to 20 kts mainly at SSI. After daybreak, winds increasing to sustained 12-16 kts through late afternoon with gusts near 25 kts at all terminals. Winds subside continuing a WNW direction with speeds near 5 kts inland to 8 kts coast through 06z. && .MARINE... Issued at 118 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Small craft advisory conditions continue for all local waters through tonight with occasional gusts to gale force over the outer waters. Winds begin to relax into Saturday with Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions expected. Surface high pressure builds over the local waters Sunday and extends a ridge axis across the waters through mid-week next week with dry conditions and winds and seas below marine headline criteria. Rip Currents: A low-end moderate rip current risk continues for NE FL beaches today due to a lingering long-period easterly swell, with a low risk for SE GA beaches. A low rip current risk is expected for all local waters due to continued offshore flow through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 118 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Strong northwesterly transport winds will develop shortly after sunrise this morning, with breezy surface winds expected area-wide by the mid-morning hours. These breezy conditions will combine with critically low relative humidity values this afternoon across north central FL to create an elevated fire danger. Minimum humidity values elsewhere across northeast Florida and southeast Georgia will fall to around 30 percent, or just above critical thresholds. Good daytime dispersion values are forecast throughout our region this afternoon. Northwesterly transport winds will remain breezy on Saturday, but minimum relative humidity values are forecast to remain above critical thresholds. Lower mixing heights on Saturday will generally yield fair daytime dispersion values. Surface and transport winds will then shift to westerly on Sunday with diminishing speeds, resulting in poor daytime dispersion values area-wide. A dry air mass will remain in place, but humidity values are expected to remain above critical thresholds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 56 36 61 36 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 59 41 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 61 38 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 63 42 63 43 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 61 36 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 64 36 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1209152 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:30 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 129 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 126 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 A strong mid level low currently over the Mid Atlantic states will gradually slide eastward today and into the Atlantic heading into the first part of the weekend. Deep mid level troughing will extend southward across the rest of the Eastern Seaboard and that will slide eastward heading into Saturday. At the surface, a secondary frontal boundary currently over Northern Florida and the Gulf coast will slide southeastward as today progresses. With cold and dry air advection continuing throughout Friday in the wake of the previous front that went through early Thursday morning, high temperatures today will struggle to get to 70 degrees across the Lake Okeechobee region, and these temperatures will rise into the lower 70s elsewhere across the region. With the secondary front passing through the region, this will provide a reinforcing shot of cold air to the area on Friday night into Saturday morning. This will send overnight lows down into the lower 40s west of Lake Okeechobee and into the mid to upper 40s across most other interior locations. The east coast metro areas as well as the coastal area of Southwest Florida will see low temperatures drop into the lower 50s Friday night into Saturday morning. As high pressure continues to build over the region throughout Saturday, the dry conditions will remain in place as strong cold air advection takes place along the north to northwesterly wind flow. High temperatures on Saturday will only rise into the upper 60s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the lower 70s across the rest of South Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 126 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 To close out the weekend, the ridge of high pressure to our north will preface it`s exit with one more chilly morning. Overnight Saturday into Sunday morning, the cold air mass will keep most lows in the mid-40s around Lake Okeechobee and interior southern FL, with the remainder of South FL in the low to mid 50s. However, on Sunday into early next week, the high pressure system will begin to drift eastward allowing the low level winds to veer east/northeastward. While Sunday afternoon highs will trend below climatological normal, they will be the start of a warming trend due to the ENE winds. Next week, with the easterly winds and influence of the Atlantic warmth, temperatures will trend warmer, and potentially reach above climatological normals by mid-week. Afternoon highs will be back in the the upper 70s and low 80s on Monday and widespread 80s by Tuesday. Overnight lows will be closer to normal with temperatures keeping to the upper 50s and 60s by Tuesday morning. With the influence of the high pressure and dry air mass, conditions are expected to remain benign and dry through at least the first half of the new week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Northwest winds between 5 and 10 kts overnight will increase by the middle of Friday morning and will range between 10 and 15 kts in the afternoon. These winds could gust up to 20 kts across all terminals especially during the afternoon hours. Northwest winds will gradually diminsh as Friday evening progresses. && .MARINE... Issued at 126 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Hazardous marine conditions will continue across the Atlantic waters through today and tonight as a fresh to strong northwesterly wind flow continues. Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 6 to 8 feet before gradually diminishing on Saturday. Across the Gulf waters, a moderate to fresh northwesterly breeze will continue today before gradually diminishing tonight. Marine conditions will improve across all local waters heading into the second half of the weekend and then into early next week as winds and seas diminish. && .BEACHES... Issued at 126 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across all South Florida beaches through the rest of the week and into the first part of the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 72 54 72 56 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 74 49 73 51 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 74 52 73 55 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 74 52 73 56 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 72 53 71 58 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 72 52 71 56 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 74 52 73 56 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 71 51 70 55 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 72 51 71 56 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 72 51 70 51 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for GMZ676. && $$ |
| #1209151 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:24 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 106 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Colder end to the week expected behind a cold front, with below normal temperatures continuing through Saturday. High pressure will move off the coast early next week with warmer temperatures expected. A weaker cold front moves through toward mid next week. && .UPDATE... Overall, a light west to northwest wind continues across much of the region, although some sheltered locations across inland areas are calm at this time. This has resulted in localized areas dipping to the freezing mark, with Kingstree and Hartsville reporting 32F at this time. However, a review of both official and unofficial obs across the rest of the region show most areas are in the mid-upper 30s. Continued intermittent winds should continue to keep many locations mixed just enough to prevent widespread freezing conditions. A push of drier air is expected to filter in through the remainder of the night, but patchy frost is possible towards dawn in sheltered locations and those near a water source which can keep the dew point locally higher. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... A deep upper trough will provide another surge of cold, dry air advection this evening with a dry cold front leading the way. This front will push through the region before midnight and initially lead to a surge in surface winds this evening (a few gusts up to 20 mph possible near the coast). Winds will gradually weaken thereafter, but with little change in the surface pressure gradient, and the base of the upper low overhead, expect surface winds to remain elevated. Boundary layer wind forecasts indicate wind speeds up to 15 knots through sunrise Friday. In addition to the A combination of winds and brief cloud cover after midnight should prevent widespread freezing temperatures. A couple of areas could be the exception to the overwhelming majority such as Holly Shelter, portions of northern Pender, and portions of extreme western Marlboro County. Elsewhere, expect lows between 33-35 and 35-38 near the coast. Patchy frost will be possible in sheltered areas and low lying areas near water bodies where dew points will be inflated. Remaining breezy on Friday and becoming winter-like. Highs only in the lower 50s and gusts during the afternoon up to 20 mph. Some upper level clouds are possible early in the day as a result of NW flow along the Appalachians. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Dry wx all but guaranteed this period with the main story being the below normal temps with some lingering low-level CAA, before high pressure builds in for early next week. Expect low temps in the mid to upr 30s most areas both nights expect lwr 40s at the coast. Cannot rule out patchy frost but with marginal temps and some wind esp. Fri night not expecting it to be particularly widespread. During the day Sat, temps will only max out around 60 degrees...about five degrees below normal for late November. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... General theme this period is continued dry weather and a return to more seasonable temps. Highs in the mid 60s Sun climb to the lwr 70s Mon and Tue as sfc high pressure slides offshore. Guidance is in good agreement on a weak, dry cold fropa mid week which will be followed by a return to highs in the 60s for Wed and Thu with generally light wind. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR through the period. Gusty winds are the primary concern today as the boundary layer grows, permitting gusty winds reaching 20-25 kts during the afternoon. Gusty winds will subside during the evening with the loss of heating, but expect continued steady westerly winds into the first half of tonight. Extended Outlook...Expect VFR through the period as high pressure maintains control. Gusty winds will be the only concern through Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... Through Friday...Winds are still gusting to 25 knots for much of the nearshore waters although a break in the gradient and weaker marine boundary layer means that some of these gusts have been periodic. A cold front will push offshore after midnight and bring another surge of gusts overnight. Expect widespread gusts up to 30 knots and seas building to 3-5 feet. Gusts remain elevated on Friday as the pressure gradient remains nearly constant. Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through Friday night. Friday night through Tuesday...Marine conditions improving this period following the SCA for frequent 25-30 kt gusts Fri night. Sfc high pressure builds south of the area this weekend then moves offshore early next week keeping winds no higher than 10-15 kt and sub-SCA wave heights as well. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ |
| #1209150 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 114 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Strong low pressure near western CT early this morning will continue to move westward today into southern NY, then meanders east and northeast into the Canadian Maritimes through the weekend. Rains gradually decrease early this morning, with a lull in the rain for most of today, but rain chances increase again late this afternoon and tonight before pulling away into early Saturday. Considerable cloudiness for this weekend with gusty northwest winds. Brief dry weather returns on Monday. The rest of the week looks active, with one storm system around Tuesday spreading rain showers. Blustery, cooler and dry for Wednesday, then monitoring for additional storminess around Thanksgiving or Black Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 7 PM Update... Moist conveyor belt/firehose of Atlantic moisture with a very large fetch from Georges Bank pivoting westward into SNE, is providing a steady stream of light to moderate rain across the area this evening. This will continue much of the night, with steady rain tapering off toward morning, as the dry slot overspreads the area. As the closed upper low over PA drifts eastward overnight, associated cold pool aloft will begin to cool the column over western MA/CT, resulting in rain mixing with and changing over to snow at elevations AOA 1,500 ft. Otherwise, a chilly/raw windswept rain continues tonight. Previous forecast verifying nicely at 7 PM and captures the details above. Therefore, no changes with this update. Earlier discussion below. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Periods of rain and fog tonight with gusty NE winds * Any very minor wet snow accums confined to east slopes of Berks Surface low pressure south of Long Island will gradually retrograde northwest tonight in response the the deep closed upper level low across PA. This will allow the easterly 850 mb LLJ to strengthen between 45 and 55 knots tonight. In response...a band of good mid level frontogenesis to lift northward across the region. The result will be periods of rain and fog persisting tonight. It will also be quite breezy with ENE wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph at times with the strongest of those winds along the coast. As the closed upper level low approaches from the west...some cooling aloft will begin to work in from the southwest later tonight. It may be just cold enough for rain to mix with or change to wet snow in the highest terrain along the east slopes of the Berks. Perhaps a coating to 1 inch of wet snow would be possible at elevations near 1500 feet with a low risk of up to 2" late tonight into Friday morning. Not much of an impact...but some very minor wet snow accums are possible in the highest terrain late tonight into Fri morning. Low temps should mainly be in the upper 30s to the lower 40s...but a few degrees lower in the highest terrain. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Key Points... * Lull in most of the rain Friday morning into early afternoon * Highs Fri mainly in the upper 40s to the middle 50s * Next round of rain later Fri/Fri night eastern/northern MA * Wet snow may mix in across highest terrain of Berks/N. Orh Hills Details... Friday and Friday night... As the closed upper level low continues to lift northward to our west...a dryslot should overspread much of the region Friday morning into mid afternoon. So much of this time period will be dry except for a few lingering showers mainly across western MA/western CT closer to the upper level low. We may even see a peeks of sunshine briefly with the best chance across eastern MA with the dryslot. This should result in high temps recovering into the upper 40s to the middle 50s on Fri. The closed upper level low to our west will result in another piece of shortwave energy approaching from the south. The track of this piece of energy and how far west the main rain shield gets...but appears eastern MA and northern MA stand the best chance for a period of widespread rain later Fri into Fri night. Temps maybe marginally cold enough for some wet snow in the highest terrain of the Berks and northern Worcester Hills...but no real impacts anticipated. Low temps should bottom out in the 30s to the lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Highlights: * Gradually drying out this weekend with seasonably cool temps, but with NW gusts 25-40 mph Sat night into Sun early PM. * Tranquil and seasonable Mon. * Frontal system for Tue spreads lighter showers early on Tue, then dry and blustery for Wed. * Monitoring more active weather around the Thanksgiving holiday or Black Friday, some of which could be wintry, but uncertainty is very large. Details: Saturday Night and Sunday: Strong low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will continue to slowly move ENE through the rest of the weekend. Tight NW pressure gradient will continue to drive blustery NW winds. Approach of secondary shortwave disturbance moving through Ontario SE into New England late Sat night into early on Sun will increase a NWly low- level jet, which global models indicate ~40-45 kt at 850 mb. Expect a cloudy and blustery night Sat night with gusts 25-35 mph, on the higher end of that range over the higher terrain. As mixing depth increases with a bit more in the way of sun on Sunday, we could see gusts punch into the 30-40 mph range into the early afternoon, near Advisory levels, then decreasing into the midafternoon as the low level jet weakens. The gusty conditions will make it feel much cooler than forecast temps; lows Sat night in the mid to upper 30s may feel more like the upper 20s to near freezing with the NW breeze, and highs 45-50 on Sunday. Clearing skies will lead to a chilly Sun night with lows in the upper 20s to the lower to mid 30s, but will feel cooler with a continued NW wind around 10-15 mph. Monday: Monday likely to be the pick of the forecast with high pressure ridging in, offering full sun and a slackening wind. Modest warm advection with 925 mb temps up to around +4 to +6C brings highs into the low to mid 50s. Monday Night thru Tuesday Night: The 500 mb pattern becomes more active starting in this period, continuing into the workweek, as spokes of shortwave trough energy from the West Coast move across the CONUS. A lead shortwave moves into the Gt Lakes and Northeast region into Tue, bringing a risk for showers. However models vary on the strength of this wave with the ECMWF on the weaker side, while the GFS and Canadian are a little stronger and would offer a little more QPF. Highs around the 50s. Wednesday: Low pressure will have moved into the Maritimes early on Wed, and other than northwest breezes, early look at conditions for the biggest holiday travel day seem favorable with partly to mostly sunny conditions and highs in the 40s to near 50. Thursday/Friday: Pacific frontal system moves across the central US, leading to a developing storm system in the central Plains around Thurs. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists in the details, though there appears to be enough colder air in place to allow for some wintry weather possibilities Thurs and/or Fri, provided there is a favorable storm track. Kept PoP on the higher end of Chance but will be monitoring model developments very closely. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update: Through 12z Friday: High confidence in trends, though moderate on the exact timing. IFR ceilings with MVFR/IFR visbys in RA/FG with E/ENE winds around 15-25 kt with gusts 25-30 kt, will continue at least for a couple hours. As low pressure now over southern CT moves westward into eastern NY between 07-12z, expect a rapid decrease in rain and improving visbys from south to north, along with winds shifting from SE to S with a decrease in speed to around 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. The southerly windshift will also lead to improvement in ceilings toward BKN/OVC MVFR, with VFR over southeast MA. See TAFs for timing, though these could slip by an hour or two. Today: Moderate confidence. Intermittent light rains with MVFR clouds for the interior, but for RI and eastern MA, a lull in rains are expected for part of the day with SCT-BKN VFR bases and southerly gusts around 20-25 kt. Late in the day (thinking after 20z, although exact timing is still a bit uncertain), another round of steadier rains develops over the southeast waters and rotates NNW into at least eastern MA and RI by 00z. As this rain moves in, expect ceilings lowering to MVFR levels, S winds shifing to SE/E around 10-12 kt and visbys around 4-6 SM in -RA/RA. Tonight: Moderate confidence. VFR/MVFR deteriorates to MVFR/IFR ceilings at most airports, with steadier RA at 4-6 SM vsby for at least eastern MA and RI, possibly as far west as BAF/BDL but the western extent is still uncertain. Rain should pull away toward the NE after 06z. SE/E winds become NE around 10 kt thru midnight, and then NW around 5-10 kt overnight before increasing in speed to 10-15 kt by daybreak Sat. Saturday: Moderate to high confidence. BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR ceilings with slow improvement trends. Gusty NW winds around 15 kt with gusts 25-35 kt. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. IFR, wind-swept rains on ENE winds gusting to 35 kt for another couple hours. Windshift to SE/S around ~08-09z with rapid improvement in cigs/vsbys toward MVFR-VFR. Otherwise, VFR with S around 10-15 kt/gusts to 25 kt most of the day. Another round of rain develops after 19z with developing SE/E winds and deteriorating cigs. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. IFR/MVFR ceilings with MVFR rains on N winds initially. Abrupt windshift to SE/S 08-10z with categories trending MVFR. Otherwise, MVFR with more intermittent -RA today on S winds around 10 kt. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance RA. Sunday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Sunday Night through Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight through Friday night... * Gale Warnings posted for tonight Tonight... Low pressure south of Long Island will gradually lift northwest tonight. This will induce an easterly low level jet of 45 to 55 knots. Based on that...we opted to upgrade to Gale Warnings tonight for most open waters with gusts to 35 knots expected. Seas will build 7 to 11 feet across most open waters given the long fetch. Areas of fog will also reduce visibility for mariners. Friday and Friday night... As the low pressure lifts northwest into eastern NY...the surface winds will shift to the south by early Fri morning and turn more E during the afternoon. Gusts will diminish...but seas will be on the downturn but will still be above small craft levels. Therefore...will need to replace the Gales with small craft headlines. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain. Sunday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ231>235- 237-250-251-254>256. && $$ |
| #1209149 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:15 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 109 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Several disturbances drop across the area over the next couple of days, bringing a prolonged period of gusty winds and chilly temperatures. Weak high pressure builds over the area late in the weekend, bringing a gradual warmup for the first half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 110 AM EST Friday... Key Messages... - A second surge of cooler air comes in tonight, helping to drop temperatures into the upper 20s to low-mid 30s. - A Freeze Warning remains in effect overnight/early Friday morning across interior northeast NC and SE VA (where the growing season is still in effect). The latest analysis shows a potent upper level low centered across SE PA. At the surface, low pressure was located over S CT. The coastal sfc low is progged to become the primary system as it retrogrades NNW overnight into NY state, while the other low dives SE towards the central/southern Appalachians, gradually becoming absorbed as the upper system slowly pivots SE. Across the local area, temperatures have dropped into the mid- upper 30s inland with a westerly wind of 5-10 mph (locally higher at the coast). Tonight is not an ideal setup for decoupling given the pressure gradient and increasing mid level cloud cover through most of the night. However, clouds clear for the last couple hours of the night with winds diminishing. As such, still expect most inland locations to drop into the 30-35F range overnight, with some upper 20s possible, mainly along and W of the I-95 corridor. The Freeze Warning remains in effect across mainly interior portions of SE VA and NE NC (where the growing season has not yet ended). Given that winds will be localized and variable, only the more sheltered and rural locations within the Warning are likely to see a freeze, with suburban/urban areas more likely to stay just above freezing. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 335 PM EST Thursday... Key Messages... - Another disturbance dropping across the region will provide another day of gusty winds, and increasing clouds for Friday. - Widespread showers are expected NE zones by Fri aftn. A few instances of graupel or even some wet snowflakes are possible over northern portions of the area late Friday morning into early afternoon. - Winds will diminish late this weekend as the trough exits the region. The final shortwave will be transversing across the area Friday morning as the surface low moves over eastern Pennsylvania and the upper low diving into the southern Mid-atlantic. This shortwave will be slightly stronger than the other two. It will bring in a stronger shot of CAA with highs in the mid/upper 40s across the Piedmont and northern zones, with lower 50s along the SE coast. Pops have been extended further south with chc PoPs down to the I-64 corridor, and likely to categorical pops farther to the NE. Given the relatively shallow moisture layer between 850-700 mb farther south, would expect minimal QPF. With the moisture layer being primarily in the DGZ this could result in a couple reports of graupel and or even a few snowflakes primarily north of I-64. This will only last for a brief period of time late Friday morning before temperatures start to warm. Ground temperatures would be much too warm for any impacts, but certainly a sharp contrast from just a few days ago. Showers will taper down Friday evening allowing the region to dry out. Fridays lows will be slightly warmer as the upper low moves out of the area and ridging takes place. Early morning low temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Saturday and Sunday will be slightly warmer as ridging continues to take place across the region. Highs both days in the upper 50s and lower 60s. The lows will be in the middle to upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 335 PM EST Thursday... Key Messages... - High pressure moves back in bringing dry weather back across the region to start off the weekend. - Rain potential increases by the end of the week with another possible system. The latest 12z/21 ensemble guidance is in decent agreement into early next week. A ridge and surface high pressure will move into the area bringing dry and pleasant conditions across the CWA. By the middle of the week ensembles begin to disagree in placement and strength of a clipper system ushering in a cold front that will move across the CWA. Where the low is currently forecasted the region will see no precipitation from the system but will experience its cold front. By Thanksgiving day Pops are reintroduced into the forecast as the ensembles hint on a potential system moving across the region. There is again disagreement with the models on strength and placement. However, they do have a decent single on a potential system bringing in showers across the region. Pops are ranges between 15-30% for both Thursday and Friday. Temperature wise both Monday and Tuesday will be pleasant with highs warming back into the upper 50s to around 60s on Monday, with highs in the lower 60s by midweek. Early morning lows warm back into the 40s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Then Wednesday highs will cool down into the lower the 50s behind the front. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 100 AM EST Friday... SCT mid level clouds remain over the area through most of the night before clearing late tonight into Fri morning. A band of light rain pivots around a surface low over NE PA Fri afternoon, moving over RIC and SBY. Forecast soundings show cold temps aloft with above freezing temps in the lowest few thousand feet and surface temps in the upper 40s for most. Therefore, expect snow aloft to melt into rain before reaching the ground. However, dry air in the lowest portion of the atmosphere support wet bulb temps in the upper 30s to around 40F. As such, a few snow flakes mixed in with the rain are possible if rates are high enough. The best chance is north central VA to the Eastern Shore including SBY, but can`t rule out a few flakes at RIC. Additionally, MVFR VIS is possible at SBY mainly late Fri afternoon into Fri evening. Light rain moves offshore by midnight Fri night with clearing overnight. Apart from precip, low level stratus move in from NW to SE late Fri morning into Fri afternoon. CIGs remain mainly VFR apart from MVFR CIGs from the Northern Neck to the Eastern Shore late Fri afternoon into Fri night. A brief period of IFR CIGs is possible between 00-04z Sat. Otherwise, W winds 5-10 kt continue overnight, increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt Fri afternoon into early Fri night before gradually diminishing. Outlook: Winds shift to the NW and remain gusty Saturday, before diminishing Saturday night into Sunday. Mainly dry conditions continue into mid week. && .MARINE... As of 700 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all local waters through Friday afternoon. - Gale Warnings have been issued for most waters from late Friday afternoon through Friday night. Gale Watches remain in effect for area rivers. The region currently is between two areas of low pressure, one off the NJ coast and a second area over Lake Michigan. Winds have remained at low end SCA levels through this afternoon. Expect these winds to continue through the overnight hours as another shortwave trough rotates through the broad closed low. As the wave hits the coast toward 12z, winds could increase a little and some rain showers are possible too. But SCA conditions will persist into Friday even after this wave passes off the coast. The last wave that will impact the area with this upper trough arrives late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. This wave will help a stronger sfc low over PA to drop SE off the DE coast by early Saturday morning. The combination of the Cold Advection and tighten pressure gradient will kick winds up to 30 - 35 kt with gust around 40 kt possible. Wind probs for 34 kt gusts are high for this surge with probs between 70% - 90%. SCA conditions will continue Sat before winds gradually diminish Sat night into Sun as high pressure builds in. As a result have issued a Gale Warning for tomorrow afternoon into Saturday morning for all except the area rivers where confidence is still only moderate that gale force winds will be experienced. So have left the Gale Watch in place for now. Waves and seas have subsided to 2-3 ft on the Bay and 4 - 6 FT on the ocean this afternoon. The seas will remain in this range through Friday afternoon before increasing again Friday night into Saturday with the strong surge of winds and then gradually subsiding Sat afternoon into Sunday as high pressure returns to the area. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ012>017- 030>032. VA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ089-090-092- 093-096-097. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ630>634-638-650-652-654-656-658. Gale Watch from this afternoon through late tonight for ANZ635>637. && $$ |
| #1209148 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:00 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1255 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will build across the area tonight and will remain the primary feature through early next week. A cold front could approach the area towards the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... No major changes were made for the early morning update. Update: With clear skies and calm winds, temperatures have dropped a couple degrees here over the last couple of hours. Thus, minor changes to low temperature forecast and dewpoints given the latest observations. Winds will start to pick back up again once the sun begins to rise. High pressure will prevail overnight. Skies will remain clear, although ongoing cold air advection will keep winds up through daybreak. It will be a chilly night with lows from the mid-upper 30s inland to the mid 40s at the beaches. There looks to be enough wind to keep significant frost from forming, except in the the most sheltered of areas. The coverage is certainly not enough for a Frost Advisory at this time, but a mention of patchy frost in the some of the normally colder spots was introduced. Lake Winds: Winds have temporarily diminished slightly on Lake Moultrie this evening after a rather potent late afternoon/sunset surge. Speeds should pick back up to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt overnight as the tail end of the shortwave aloft swings through. A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Deep mid level low will meander over the Northeast on Friday, before exiting on Saturday. The pattern will then flatten and be replaced by weak ridging by the end of the weekend. At the surface, low pressure will finally exit allowing high pressure to continue to build over the local area. Gusty winds are expected on Friday, then the pressure gradient eases through the weekend. Gusts over Lake Moultrie could approach Lake Wind Advisory criteria Friday into Friday night, but at this point remains just shy. Otherwise, expect full sunshine with moderating temperatures. It will be coolest on Friday when highs top out in the mid to upper 50s (~10 degrees below climo). By Sunday, temperatures will recover to the upper 60s. Lows will be chilly, falling solidly into the 30s inland of the coast. Attention then turns to the potential for frost over far interior areas. For Friday night/Saturday morning, while temps are supportive, winds could stay too elevated for widespread frost development. Certainly not out of the question to see patchy frost in more sheltered locations. For Saturday night/Sunday morning, we did go on the cooler side of guidance with ideal radiational cooling conditions in place. As winds are expected to go calm, this could lead to a higher threat for frost. Will continue to monitor trends. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure will continue to extend into the area early next week, although a cold front could approach during the latter half of the period. Still some uncertainties in the evolution of that feature, whether it actually passes through or stalls, so changes to the forecast are likely. At this point, no rain is in the forecast. Temperatures will be above climo for Monday and Tuesday then possibly cooler for Wednesday if fropa occurs. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 22/00z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR. Gusty conditions will continue into Saturday morning. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. Gusty west winds are expected again Friday. && .MARINE... Tonight: Winds are starting to surge hard again as a secondary cold front pushes through and shortwave energy pivots through aloft. Have seen gusts to 34-36 kt gales at the Charleston Pilot Buoy, Capers Nearshore and 41004, but suspect these gusts far infrequent enough and short enough in duration that an upgrade to a Gale Warning is not needed. A Marine Weather Statement has been issued to address this through mid-evening, after that, the gale gust potential should diminish. Otherwise, west winds 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt will be common with 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the Charleston Harbor. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all waters tonight. Friday through Tuesday: Gusty west winds will persist over the coastal waters Friday into Friday night, maintaining the ongoing Small Craft Advisories. For the Charleston Harbor, gusts should fall below 25 kt Friday evening so the Advisory is scheduled to come down at 23z/6 PM. Conditions will improve on Saturday, with winds and seas remaining below advisory levels through Tuesday. Winds eventually turn southwest with speeds generally 15 knots or less and seas 1-3 ft. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ045. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ330. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ350-352- 354. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1209147 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:42 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1235 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 759 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Minor tweaks to low temperature forecast and dew points given latest trends, but overall forecast is on track. Though some areas over the interior may drop towards the mid 30s by sunrise, expecting too breezy for any frost potential. Especially considering a secondary dry front passes through overnight, which may stir up the winds a bit and help with CAA continue. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 1256 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Cool temperatures, dry weather, and clear skies will be in place through today and tonight as cold dry air settles over the region. Breezy westerly to northwesterly winds are expected to persist through the period, acting to inhibit any potential fog developments overnight and into early Friday morning. High temperatures today will be in the lower 60s over southeast Georgia and in the mid to upper 60s over northeast Florida. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the upper 30s and lower 40s for inland areas and in the mid to upper 40s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 1256 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Dry weather and mainly clear skies, with below normal temperatures is forecast throughout this period. The region will be between a trough of low pressure to the northeast, and building high pressure to the west northwest. Cold advection will continue on a west northwest flow, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s SE GA, and lower to mid 60s NE FL. The high will build closer from the west northwest Friday night. This will be a significantly cooler than normal night. Lows inland in the mid to upper 30s will be common. Light frost will be possible inland, but the wind is expected to stir through the night due to the remaining gradient. While this wind may limit frost production, it will make it feel cooler with Apparent Temperature readings dipping into the 30s all the way to the coast. High pressure will build close Saturday, then overhead Saturday night. Highs Saturday in the lower to mid 60s expected. Due to the high overhead Saturday night, winds will fall off to near calm. With cool and dry airmass in place, with the light winds temperatures will fall into the mid 30s inland. A few spots in interior SE GA and Suwannee valley of NE FL could touch 32 around sunrise Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1256 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Dry weather will continue through this period. The high will begin to center more toward the northeast Sunday, with an elongated ridge laying southwest to northeast across forecast area through the middle of next week. A weakening cold front will approach from the north Tuesday night, but is not expected to get through the ridge. Temperatures will trend near to a little below normal early this period, then above next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period under WNW winds. Through 12z, speeds of 4-8 kts will continue at inland terminals with speeds 6-10 kts at coastal terminals with gusts up to 20 kts mainly at SSI. After daybreak, winds increasing to sustained 12-16 kts through late afternoon with gusts near 25 kts at all terminals. Winds subside continuing a WNW direction with speeds near 5 kts inland to 8 kts coast through 06z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1256 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 The region will be between a trough to the northeast, and building high pressure to the west northwest through Friday. The high will build overhead Saturday, with high pressure ridging then prevailing into next week. Rip Currents: SE GA Low through Friday NE FL Moderate through Friday && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 57 34 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 60 40 63 45 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 61 37 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 63 42 64 45 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 62 36 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 65 37 64 38 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1209146 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:42 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1141 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 747 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Only minor change to the forecast with the evening update was to lower MinTs slightly based on hourly observational trends and the near ideal radiational cooling setup. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 117 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Beautiful weather will continue tonight through Friday night as high pressure continues. After overnight lows in the low to mid 40s, temperatures will warm slightly as onshore flow develops and slowly brings in warm air. Highs Friday will be back in the upper 70s and low 80s, with overnight lows in the upper 40s and low 50s. Onshore flow will also gradually increase the moisture over the area. Confidence is very low, but a few of the models have been hinting at patchy fog across the Coastal Plains late Friday night && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 117 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Expect the quiet conditions to continue across the region through early to mid next week thanks to riding persisting. As the surface high pressure begins to track to the east, moisture will return to the region and flow will shift to the southeast allowing for increasing temperatures over the next few days across the region. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s with some spots approaching 90 by the early next week. The pressure gradient will tighten over the region this weekend into early next week with an approaching trough to the north and the surface high pressure shifting east increasing our winds. This will allow for Small Craft Advisory conditions over the waters late this weekend into early next week. Models depict a cold front moving through the region late next week which will likely give us our next shot at more seasonal temperatures. However models (ECMWF,Canadian,GFS) are still in disagreement on the timing and location of the trough, therefore it will continue to be monitored in impending forecasts. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 VFR conditions are expected with light and variable winds tonight into tomorrow morning. Weak southeast flow returns late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 117 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Light and variable winds persist through early Saturday. Onshore flow gradually increases late Saturday into Sunday, becoming moderate and occasionally strong Sunday night. Winds Monday through the middle of next week are expected to remain moderate out of the south to southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 46 77 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 38 79 44 81 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 47 80 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 42 80 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 49 77 60 80 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 42 80 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 44 79 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 58 75 65 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1209145 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:33 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1227 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1232 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 The first of two cold fronts has made its way across our region today, ushering in sunny skies and cooler conditions. Deep layered dry air was already evident in the 12Z MFL sounding and ACARS soundings from MIA, with PWATs rapidly dropping below 1 inch. High temperatures won`t feel too cool today, ranging from the low to mid 70s over the interior and SW FL, to the upper 70s in SE FL. The start of the cooling trend will be more noticeable tonight, as temperatures fall to the upper 40s around the interior and Lake Okeechobee areas, with low to mid 50s elsewhere. Friday will be another mostly sunny day with breezy northerly winds, and high temperatures only climbing into the low 70s. The second front will drop through the region tomorrow, ushering in even cooler temperatures for the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 109 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 With high pressure to our north in control, dry and cool weather is expected this weekend. Low temps Saturday and Sunday morning will be in the middle 40s around the lake region, and low to mid 50s across the metro. High temps on Saturday will be roughly 10 degrees below normal, ranging from the upper 60s around the lake region to lower 70s closer to the coasts. As high pressure shifts to the east late in the weekend into early next week, our flow will become easterly, and therefore a slow moderating trend is expected into next week with temps returning to normal, however the dry conditions are expected to persist through at least the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Northwest winds between 5 and 10 kts overnight will increase by the middle of Friday morning and will range between 10 and 15 kts in the afternoon. These winds could gust up to 20 kts across all terminals especially during the afternoon hours. Northwest winds will gradually diminsh as Friday evening progresses. && .MARINE... Issued at 1232 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Hazardous marine conditions will develop across all local waters today as northerly winds increase to around 15-20 kts in the wake of a cold front. Seas will build to 4 to 7 feet over the Gulf waters, and 5 to 8 feet over the Atlantic waters. Conditions will gradually improve by this weekend as the northerly winds lighten and seas subside. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1232 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 A high rip current risk continues along the Gulf beaches today, and will remain elevated on Friday. Along the Atlantic, there will be a moderate rip current risk for the Palm Beaches today, which will remain elevated on Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 72 54 72 56 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 74 49 73 51 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 74 52 73 55 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 74 52 73 56 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 72 53 71 58 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 72 52 71 56 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 74 52 73 56 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 71 51 70 55 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 72 51 71 56 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 72 51 70 51 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for GMZ656-657. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for GMZ676. && $$ |
| #1209144 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:33 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1224 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 352 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 - Poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue tonight through Friday night. - Below normal temperatures forecast to persist through late week and into this weekend, and will be the coldest temperatures of the season so far. - Remaining dry over the next several days, with fire sensitive conditions continuing late week into this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1004 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Forecast remains on track with no changes needed. A reinforcing cold front will drop into Florida tonight, pushing overnight lows across most of East Central Florida down into the 40s, with just coastal Martin County holding onto the low 50s. Northwest winds 5-10 mph will result in wind chill values around 5 degrees cooler than the air temperature, generally down to around 40 degrees (L-M40s in coastal Martin), but possibly into the U30s in the usually cooler spots. Clear skies and dry conditions. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 352 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Tonight-Friday...Mid/upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will force a dry reinforcing cold front through the area tonight. This will continue an elevated northwest wind flow across the region through tomorrow. Wind speeds will remain around 10 mph tonight, up to 10-15 mph along the coast, and then becoming breezy again into tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph. This will continue to usher in drier and much cooler air into the area. It will turn colder into tonight, with lows in the 40s and wind chill values as low as the upper 30s to low 40s toward daybreak. Highs on Friday will be around 7 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year, ranging from the mid to upper 60s across much of east central FL, except near 70 degrees along the Treasure Coast. Friday night-Sunday...Trough aloft shifts off the eastern U.S. coast, with high pressure at the surface settling southeast and across the region into this weekend. This will maintain dry conditions through the weekend, and allow northwest winds to weaken. Lighter winds and a very dry airmass in place will allow temps to be even a tad colder into Friday night, but lows are still forecast in the low to mid 40s over much of the area. Wind speeds will be around 5 mph or less that night, but will still equate to wind chills as low as the mid 30s to low 40s early Saturday morning. Highs will remain cooler than normal in the mid to upper 60s on Saturday. Lows will again fall into the 40s Saturday night, and highs will be a tad higher, but still slightly below normal, in the low to mid 70s on Sunday. Monday-Thursday...(Previous Discussion) A warming trend resumes early next week as zonal mid level flow builds over the central and eastern CONUS. Dry weather continues as moisture fields are slow to recover until later in the week. Light onshore winds become established as daytime highs push into the upper 70s and low 80s. Morning lows Monday will still be in the mid to upper 40s north of I- 4, rebounding into the 50s and low 60s areawide Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Model output diverges regarding the synoptic pattern over the CONUS Tuesday into Wednesday, which has downstream implications regarding what sensible weather we experience from Thanksgiving Day onward. Right now, we can anticipate near to slightly above normal temperatures for the holiday, along with mostly dry conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 352 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Tonight...A reinforcing cold front will move through the waters tonight, with NW winds increasing back up to 20-25 knots, which will maintain seas up to 6-8 feet offshore. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the entire coastal waters through tonight for these hazardous boating conditions. Friday-Monday...(Previous Discussion) Hazardous boating conditions are forecast to last through much of Friday, with gradual improvement Friday night into Saturday as winds and seas slowly decrease. 10-14 kt NW flow is anticipated on Saturday, falling below 10 kt for Sunday and Monday. Seas Friday around 5-8 ft in the Gulf Stream fall below 7 ft Saturday morning, decreasing further to 2-3 ft by Sunday. Favorable boating looks to persist through the middle of next week as high pressure becomes centered over the FL Peninsula and local waters. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1222 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 VFR conditions, with SKC prevailing. NW winds through the period, increasing to around 15kts Friday morning, with gusts to 20-25kts. Gusty winds are forecast to subside by late afternoon, then diminish in the evening hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 65 42 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 66 44 66 46 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 68 45 67 49 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 69 45 68 49 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 66 42 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 66 42 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 67 45 67 47 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 69 45 68 48 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ550- 552-555. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ |
| #1209143 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:33 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1230 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 934 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 No major changes made to the overnight forecast. Nudged dew points up slightly based on current observational trends, but the forecast appears to be otherwise on track. Elevated winds should keep radiational cooling and frost formation at bay as the secondary cold front continues its passage through the region. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Friday) Issued at 157 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 A re-enforcing cold front is moving through the southeast US and will pass through our area late tonight. This will bring another push of cold, dry air during the overnight hours. Lows are tricky tonight as we`re embedded in a cold air advection regime. Winds will remain elevated around 5-10 mph. The deterministic NBM is on the warm side of the guidance envelope tonight (upper 30s to mid 40s), even higher than it`s 95th percentile within its distribution. Meanwhile, the HREF indicates shows a greater than 50% chance of temperatures below 40 north of I-10 with about 20-30% chance of below 36 across the AL/GA counties. Thus, went with a heavier weight toward NBM50 and MOS guidance, which yields mid 30s to near 40 for tonight. Winds appear to be too high and humidity too low for widespread frost development. Wouldn`t be surprised to see patchy frost in sheltered locations, but it`s not enough to issue a frost advisory at this time. Highs tomorrow under the advective regime will be in the mid-50s to lower 60s across the area with abundant sunshine. && .SHORT & LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 157 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Surface high pressure will slide east across the northern Gulf coast this weekend, from southern Mississippi Saturday to the Florida peninsula Sunday. Saturday morning will be the coldest of this period, with a potential for a light freeze in the Flint River Valley in outlying areas with areas of frost through much of the area north of I-10. As the high pressure moves east and winds become southerly beginning Sunday, a gradual warmup and moisture levels increase heading into early next week with highs reaching the upper 70s and lows in the 50s. A cold front arrives into the southeast US Tuesday but stalls north of the tri-state area, southerly flow continues into midweek with above normal temperatures continuing. Rain chances are low Tuesday and Wednesday (10-20%) and any rain would be minimal. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 VFR conditions with clear skies are expected to prevail. Low level wind shear is expected at VLD early this morning with near calm surface winds and winds around 2000 ft around 30 knots out of the northwest. By mid-morning, surface winds will increase out of the northwest for all sites with gusts near 20 knots expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 934 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Offshore buoys were reporting sustained NW winds around 20-25 kts with gusts near 30 kts, 4-6-ft seas, and a dominant period of 4-7 seconds late this evening. Winds were increased overnight by blending in the HRRR, which shows a stronger northwesterly surge with the passage of a reinforcing cold front. Brief gusts at or near gale force are possible. From CWF Synopsis...Solid Advisory-level conditions will continue into Friday morning.Winds will be out of the northwest with gusts up to around 30kts. Seas will begin to decrease during the afternoon on Friday as winds begin to relax and become more northerly over the weekend. High pressure settles over the region this weekend bringing winds down to a gentle or light breeze with seas averaging 1-3 feet. As we start the new work week, winds will become southerly when the surface high pressure moves east over to the Atlantic. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 157 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Another cold front moves through the service area tonight bringing an increase in transport winds on Friday. Transport winds will be out of the northwest at 20-25 mph. This will lead to good dispersions with areas of high dispersions east of I-75. Min RH values will drop into the mid-30s across the area. Dispersions will decrease over the weekend as winds become light. Min RH will remain in the mid to upper 30s each afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 157 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Little, if any, rainfall is expected through mid next week. There are no flooding concerns at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 60 40 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 62 41 65 45 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 58 35 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 57 35 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 59 37 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 63 37 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 62 42 64 48 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ108-112-114. High Rip Current Risk until 3 AM EST early this morning for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon for GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1209142 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:33 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1228 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A series of weak fronts will cross the area tonight and Friday and act to reinforce the cold, dry airmass which invaded early Thursday morning. High pressure then builds in over the weekend and into next week continuing the dry weather pattern. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... - Freeze Warnings are in effect for the most of Eastern NC outside of the immediate coastline As of 10 PM Thursday...Dry and colder weather will prevail across eastern NC through Friday now that a mid level trough has become established across the eastern CONUS. A secondary cold front is forecast to sweep east across the region this evening. This feature will be accompanied by some mid level clouds. The main concern tonight is the likelihood of a brief period of sub freezing temperatures inland from the coast. Dewpoints have crashed and are very low, currently into the upper 20s lower 30s. If winds were to decouple, then it would be a slam dunk that low temps would be at or below freezing over a large area of eastern NC tonight. Confidence has increased that winds will completely decouple for at least a couple hour period overnight (especially in rural/sheltered areas) which will allow for sufficient radiational cooling to occur to drop temps to around 32. If any cold sensitive plants are outside anywhere in eastern NC (away from the beaches/coastline), take actions to protect them for the cold. Expect lows around 30 in the most sheltered locations, and low 30s elsewhere inland, with upper 30s to low 40s along the coastline. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday... Yet another reinforcing cold front is forecast to cross the area late Fri. Nothing other than a few clouds expected with it. Once the front crosses, West winds will increase late in the day. After a chilly start, high temps will struggle to reach the low 50s but should get there aided by downslope flow. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 315 AM Thursday... - Breezy and cold Friday - Trending warmer late weekend into early next week A highly amplified upper level pattern this week will transition to a lower confidence zonal flow aloft pattern as we move into the week of Thanksgiving. At the surface, a broad area of cyclonic flow will reside across the Eastern U.S. through Saturday thanks to persistent low pressure off the New England coast. Late in the weekend and into early next week, high pressure will build in across the Southeast U.S. By the middle of next week, medium range guidance differ quite a bit, but the potential exists for a front to move through the Carolinas a day or so either side of Thanksgiving. Friday night- Saturday: Yet another potent shortwave will traverse the Carolinas late Friday into Friday night. This wave will be accompanied by another surge of gusty winds, with peak gusts of 25- 35 mph for most of ENC, with higher gusts to 40 mph possible along the OBX. Increased CAA associated with the wave will not only support gusty winds, but also colder temps. By Saturday, thicknesses begin to increase, which should allow temps to top out about 5-10 degrees warmer than Friday. Steep lapse rates beneath the anomalous upper low plus modest low-mid level moisture may allow a few diurnal showers to develop Friday. However, recent ensemble guidance suggests the chance is <10%, so we`ll keep a mention out of the forecast for now. Drier air works in aloft on Saturday, further lowering the risk of showers. Sunday - Monday: High pressure is forecast to be centered off to our south over Florida, allowing a west or southwest low-level flow to develop. This should allow temperatures to gradually warm into early next week, with highs potentially topping out near 70 once again by Monday. Winds will be noticeably lighter as well. Tuesday - Thursday: From a 50,000 ft view, zonal flow aloft is forecast to reside across the CONUS next week. Within this flow, medium range guidance show significant differences, primarily focused on an upper level trough forecast to move ashore along the U.S. West Coast, and how it evolves as it moves downstream through the week. One camp of guidance suggests this wave will dampen with time, leading to a mostly uneventful cold front passage on Tuesday, followed by cool and dry conditions lasting through Thanksgiving Day. In the other camp, Tuesday`s front stalls, with a more significant wave riding along the front late next week. That second camp would lead to a more eventful Thanksgiving travel period compared to the first camp. Something to watch in the coming days. For now, our forecast will reflect the cooler, drier, and less eventful scenario. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 06z Saturday/... As of 1215 AM Friday... - Gusty west winds on Friday An anomalous upper level low is currently spinning over the Northern Mid-Atlantic States, with a broad area of cyclonic flow aloft over much of the eastern U.S. Within this flow, an upper level wave will dive south out of the Ohio Valley and into the Carolinas on Friday, moving offshore by Friday evening. A tightening pressure gradient beneath this feature, plus daytime mixing, will support increasing westerly winds by mid to late- morning across ENC, with gusts of 20- 30 kt common. Gusty winds should continue into Friday evening. Within this regime, periods of SCT/BKN mid-level clouds will move across the area, but any CIGs should be VFR. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 315 AM Thursday... - Gusty west to northwest winds Friday night into Saturday A potent upper level wave will move through on Friday evening, leading to a renewed surge of gusty winds into Saturday. During this time, gusts of 20-35kt are expected. VFR conditions look to prevail Saturday into early next week. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 300 PM Thursday...SCA`s are in effect for the near term and Gale Warnings have been issued for Fri night into Sat. Hazardous marine conditions will continue across the NC waters through Fri. Westerly flow will continue across the waters through Fri afternoon at 10-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt as cold advection prevails. Stronger cold advection will develop late Fri and the result will be a period of Gale Force winds developing by early evening. Seas of 3 ft (nearshore) to 6 ft (offshore) are expected through Fri afternoon. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 310 PM Thu... - Gale Warnings have been issued for portions of the ENC waters Friday evening into Saturday morning A potent upper level wave will move through the region on Friday night, leading to another surge of strong west to northwest winds Friday evening into Saturday morning. During this time, guidance continues to show a strong signal for gale- force gusts. Given the consistent signal, we have upgraded the coastal waters and sounds to Gale Warnings. Winds will finally begin to lay down by late in the weekend. The building winds on Friday will lead to seas building to 4-7 ft across the coastal waters, with elevated seas lasting into Saturday. Late in the weekend, seas will lay down to 2-3 ft. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 4 AM Thursday...Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Friday. Inland min RH values will drop to 35-40% and westerly winds will gust to 20 to 25 mph. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 310 PM Thursday...Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Outer Banks Dare county late Fri afternoon through Sat afternoon, with potential for soundside coastal flooding, inundation 1-2 ft agl. Main concern is for soundside areas favored in westerly flow, Duck to Hatteras Village (including areas in Roanoke Island). && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ029- 044>046-079>081-090>092-094-193>195-198-199. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Saturday for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ131- 135-150-152-154-156-158-230-231. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ131-135-150-152-154-156-158-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ136-137. && $$ |
| #1209140 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:12 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1109 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1109 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 VFR/SKC with light winds overnight. VFR on Friday and Friday evening with some cirrus (SCT250) moving across the area. For winds, N to NE during the day, generally in a 4 to 8 knots range, becoming NE to E and weakening late in the afternoon and evening and lasting through Friday night. 42 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 40 71 42 77 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 45 71 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 56 70 61 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
