Location: ?t=AFD&m=0&d=0&y=0 Viewing NWS Weather Statements - FLHurricane.com
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 21 (Milton) , Major: 21 (Milton) Florida - Any: 21 (Milton) Major: 21 (Milton)
 
Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tallahassee, FL (TAE) (Florida Panhandle) Selection:
Show plain - Location:
#1205919 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:42 PM 31.Oct.2024)
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
Issued by National Weather Service Mobile AL
339 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 151 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Subsidence from an upper ridge centered over eastern Florida will
create a dry, unseasonably warm forecast through the rest of the
week. High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with low
temperatures in the low to mid 60s expected. Enough moisture is
in place for patchy overnight fog formation, especially over the
eastern quarter of the forecast area.

A moderate southeasterly flow over northeastern Gulf will continue
to bring an increased swell to area beaches from near Apalachicola
westward, creating a High Risk of rip currents on area beaches
through Friday before easing into the weekend.
/16

&&

.SHORT through LONG TERMs...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 151 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

The upper ridge over eastern Florida builds north along the
East Coast. An upper level shortwave trough moving over the Plains
will shift the upper ridge eastward, to over the northern Caribbean
and along the East Coast. An uptick in moisture levels as a band of
increased moisture moves over the forecast area, with precipitable
h20 levels rising 1.5" or higher by Wednesday and Thursday, with
bring a small chance of rain for the end of the forecast. Subsidence
from the upper ridge will temper instability, keeping any rumbles
very limited and confined to areas over open Gulf waters.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

General VFR conditions expected through the the afternoon into
tonight. Fog development is likely over the eastern quarter of the
forecast area, with reduced visibilities to low end MVFR possible at
KVLD. Fog should quickly mix out after sunrise, with VFR conditions
expected by late morning.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

A surface ridge stretching west over the northern Gulf coast will
bring generally light to at times moderate east to southeast flow
to area waters through the weekend. Seas 3 to 5 feet will
decrease to 2 to 4 feet for Friday through the weekend. An
increase in winds to moderate early in the coming week will
increase seas to 3 to 5 feet.
/16

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Flooding is not expected for the next 7 days.
/16

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 63 84 63 85 / 0 0 0 0
Panama City 65 84 65 84 / 0 0 0 0
Dothan 61 84 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
Albany 61 83 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 62 85 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
Cross City 63 86 64 86 / 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 68 79 67 80 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ108-112-114-
115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$
#1205889 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:18 AM 31.Oct.2024)
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1110 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1109 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

The forecast is on track, updates aren`t necessary this morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

High pressure north of Bermuda will continue to produce easterly
flow across the area. Some drier air will move into the area along
the easterly flow, which will keep rain chances close to zero.
Highs will be in the middle 80s with lows in the lower 60s. Some
fog will be possible across the eastern Big Bend and south central
Georgia.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Mid-level ridging sets up shop right on top of us with surface
high pressure generally to our north and northeast over the next
several days. This spells bad news for anyone looking for rain and
cooler temperatures. Temperatures will heat back up to the upper
80s going into the weekend and early next week. This is near
record levels for this time of year. Lows likewise will warm back
into the middle 60s area wide. Some fog will be possible each
night in this pattern. A cold front approaches our area late in
the period, which will bring a small chance (20-30%) of showers by
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

A somewhat moist air mass persists below 7,000 feet in low-level
east-southeast flow. The 00z JAX sounding from Wed evening showed
a sharp subsidence inversion near 7,000 feet, with very dry air
above. Within the moister air below 7,000 feet, satellite imagery
shows FEW-SCT coverage of cumulus in east- southeast flow,
spreading in from the Gulf along the Panhandle coast, and from the
Atlantic toward I-75 and VLD. Fair weather cumulus from daytime
thermal lift is about all we will be able to muster through this
evening, so a VFR forecast prevails.

Late tonight, low stratus will spread inland from the Atlantic
coast and will likely arrive at VLD before sunrise on Friday. ABY
could possibly get the low stratus too, but confidence there is to
low to include in the TAF at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

As strong high pressure near Bermuda begins to weaken, the winds
and seas will begin to relax today as the pressure gradient
broadens. However, with high pressure remaining generally north to
northeast of the area, easterly winds around 10 to 15 knots will
be common through the weekend. As is common with easterly flow,
breezes will peak during the nighttime and morning hours with
cautionary conditions, then diminish for the afternoon hours. Seas
beyond today will remain around 2 to 4 feet over the waters for
the next several days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Southeasterly transport winds of 10-20 mph are expected today with
mixing heights around 4,000-5,000 ft, leading to good dispersions
today. Transport winds will become more easterly Friday and
Saturday and decrease to around 10 mph. Fair to good dispersions
are expected on Friday, but with an increase in mixing heights on
Saturday, high dispersions are expected across the area. Minimum
RH values each afternoon will generally be in the 40s. While fire
weather concerns remain low, fuels continue drying across the
area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 646 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Flooding is not expected for the next 7 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 85 63 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
Panama City 84 65 84 65 / 0 0 0 0
Dothan 85 61 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
Albany 85 61 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 86 62 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
Cross City 85 63 86 64 / 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 79 68 79 67 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ108-112-114-
115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon
for GMZ750-752-755-770-772-775.

&&

$$
#1205866 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 31.Oct.2024)
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
646 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

High pressure north of Bermuda will continue to produce easterly
flow across the area. Some drier air will move into the area along
the easterly flow, which will keep rain chances close to zero.
Highs will be in the middle 80s with lows in the lower 60s. Some
fog will be possible across the eastern Big Bend and south central
Georgia.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Mid-level ridging sets up shop right on top of us with surface
high pressure generally to our north and northeast over the next
several days. This spells bad news for anyone looking for rain and
cooler temperatures. Temperatures will heat back up to the upper
80s going into the weekend and early next week. This is near
record levels for this time of year. Lows likewise will warm back
into the middle 60s area wide. Some fog will be possible each
night in this pattern. A cold front approaches our area late in
the period, which will bring a small chance (20-30%) of showers by
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

A somewhat moist air mass persists below 7,000 feet in low-level
east-southeast flow. The 00z JAX sounding from Wed evening showed
a sharp subsidence inversion near 7,000 feet, with very dry air
above. Within the moister air below 7,000 feet, satellite imagery
shows FEW-SCT coverage of cumulus in east- southeast flow,
spreading in from the Gulf along the Panhandle coast, and from the
Atlantic toward I-75 and VLD. Fair weather cumulus from daytime
thermal lift is about all we will be able to muster through this
evening, so a VFR forecast prevails.

Late tonight, low stratus will spread inland from the Atlantic
coast and will likely arrive at VLD before sunrise on Friday. ABY
could possibly get the low stratus too, but confidence there is to
low to include in the TAF at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

As strong high pressure near Bermuda begins to weaken, the winds
and seas will begin to relax today as the pressure gradient
broadens. However, with high pressure remaining generally north to
northeast of the area, easterly winds around 10 to 15 knots will
be common through the weekend. As is common with easterly flow,
breezes will peak during the nighttime and morning hours with
cautionary conditions, then diminish for the afternoon hours. Seas
beyond today will remain around 2 to 4 feet over the waters for
the next several days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Southeasterly transport winds of 10-20 mph are expected today with
mixing heights around 4,000-5,000 ft, leading to good dispersions
today. Transport winds will become more easterly Friday and
Saturday and decrease to around 10 mph. Fair to good dispersions
are expected on Friday, but with an increase in mixing heights on
Saturday, high dispersions are expected across the area. Minimum
RH values each afternoon will generally be in the 40s. While fire
weather concerns remain low, fuels continue drying across the
area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 646 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Flooding is not expected for the next 7 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 85 63 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
Panama City 84 65 84 65 / 0 0 0 0
Dothan 85 61 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
Albany 85 61 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 86 62 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
Cross City 85 63 86 64 / 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 79 68 79 67 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ108-112-114-
115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon
for GMZ750-752-755-770-772-775.

&&

$$
#1205846 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:21 AM 31.Oct.2024)
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
311 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

High pressure north of Bermuda will continue to produce easterly
flow across the area. Some drier air will move into the area along
the easterly flow, which will keep rain chances close to zero.
Highs will be in the middle 80s with lows in the lower 60s. Some
fog will be possible across the eastern Big Bend and south central
Georgia.

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Mid-level ridging sets up shop right on top of us with surface
high pressure generally to our north and northeast over the next
several days. This spells bad news for anyone looking for rain and
cooler temperatures. Temperatures will heat back up to the upper
80s going into the weekend and early next week. This is near
record levels for this time of year. Lows likewise will warm back
into the middle 60s area wide. Some fog will be possible each
night in this pattern. A cold front approaches our area late in
the period, which will bring a small chance (20-30%) of showers by
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

A somewhat moist air mass persists below 7,000 feet. The 00z JAX
sounding showed a sharp subsidence inversion near 7,000 feet, with
very dry air above. Within the moister air below 7,000 feet,
satellite imagery shows FEW-SCT coverage of cumulus in east-
southeast flow, spreading in from the Gulf along the Panhandle
coast, and from the Atlantic toward I-75 and VLD. Fair weather
cumulus is about all we will be able to muster through Thursday
evening, so a VFR forecast prevails.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

As strong high pressure near Bermuda begins to weaken, the winds
and seas will begin to relax today as the pressure gradient
broadens. However, with high pressure remaining generally north to
northeast of the area, easterly winds around 10 to 15 knots will
be common through the weekend. As is common with easterly flow,
breezes will peak during the nighttime and morning hours with
cautionary conditions, then diminish for the afternoon hours. Seas
beyond today will remain around 2 to 4 feet over the waters for
the next several days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Southeasterly transport winds of 10-20 mph are expected today with
mixing heights around 4,000-5,000 ft, leading to good dispersions
today. Transport winds will become more easterly Friday and
Saturday and decrease to around 10 mph. Fair to good dispersions
are expected on Friday, but with an increase in mixing heights on
Saturday, high dispersions are expected across the area. Minimum
RH values each afternoon will generally be in the 40s. While fire
weather concerns remain low, fuels continue drying across the
area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Flooding is not expected for the next 7 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 85 63 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
Panama City 84 65 84 65 / 0 0 0 0
Dothan 85 61 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
Albany 85 61 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 86 62 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
Cross City 85 63 86 64 / 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 79 68 79 67 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ108-112-114-
115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon
for GMZ750-752-755-770-772-775.

&&

$$
#1205833 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 AM 31.Oct.2024)
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
140 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024

The forecast is on track with no changes from the discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Near, Short, Long Term)...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1237 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Mid level ridging is more or less expected to prevail over the
region through the next week, keeping dry and warm conditions in
place over the area. Surface high pressure to the north/northeast
will keep easterly to southeasterly surface winds in place. A few
weak surface troughs rotating along the base of the high may
create some instances of breezier winds, particularly over the
waters at night. Overall expect abnormally warm and dry conditions to
continue through the next week with high temperatures in the mid
to upper 80s and low temperatures in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

A somewhat moist air mass persists below 7,000 feet. The 00z JAX
sounding showed a sharp subsidence inversion near 7,000 feet, with
very dry air above. Within the moister air below 7,000 feet,
satellite imagery shows FEW-SCT coverage of cumulus in east-
southeast flow, spreading in from the Gulf along the Panhandle
coast, and from the Atlantic toward I-75 and VLD. Fair weather
cumulus is about all we will be able to muster through Thursday
evening, so a VFR forecast prevails.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1237 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Strong surface high pressure will persist north of Bermuda
through Thursday, maintaining fresh to occasionally strong
easterly breezes across the waters. A temporary weakening of the
high on Friday will come with a relative lull in the easterly flow
from Thursday night through Saturday morning. The high will re-
strengthen this weekend. As is common with easterly flow, breezes
will peak during the nighttime and morning hours, then diminish
for the afternoon hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1237 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Strong high pressure aloft will persist through this weekend,
keeping temperatures above normal while preventing any wetting
rain. Any isolated light showers this afternoon will only drop a
few hundredths of an inch of rain, at most. Easterly surface winds
will continue due to strong surface high pressure north of
Bermuda, with Friday featuring a relative lull in the easterly
flow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Flooding is not expected for the next 7 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 84 63 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
Panama City 83 66 84 65 / 0 0 0 0
Dothan 84 62 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
Albany 84 61 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 85 62 85 63 / 0 0 0 0
Cross City 85 63 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 78 68 79 68 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ108-112-114-
115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon
for GMZ750-752-755-770-772-775.

&&

$$