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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tallahassee, FL (TAE) (Florida Panhandle) Selection: |
| #1236650 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 02.Jul.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 124 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 122 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 The approach of a weak 500 hPa trough today will lead to a more uniform west-southwest low to mid-level flow across the region. The column remains very moist with PWAT around 2.2 inches, which is above the 90th percentile and near the daily max per the TAE Sounding Climatology. Showers and thunderstorms will once again develop with PoPs well above climatology in the 60-80% range given the mid-level shortwave and anomalously moist air mass. The main concern will be urban and poor drainage flooding with isolated flash flooding possible. Based on the latest hi-res ensembles, this potential is greatest north of I-10 in the FL Big Bend northward into Southwest GA, where 3-hourly flash flood guidance is in the 2-3 inch range in some spots. Cannot rule out some gusty winds with storms, especially further northwest in the GA counties and Southeast AL, where some mid-level dry air begins to work in. Much of the activity should diminish a couple hours after sunset. Otherwise, some patchy fog is possible this morning, especially across Southeast AL, and again on Thursday morning where it may focus more in Southwest GA. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 122 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 A weak frontal boundary will continue to sag southward through the Thursday as the upper trough lifts out to the northeast. Drier air will filter in in the wake of the front from the north, with lower PoPs anticipated across the northwestern half of the forecast area for Thursday and Friday. Across the southeast, the presence of the stalled boundary will continue to enhance diurnal convection. Highs will be slightly warmer to the northwest and remain fairly similar to the past few days across the southeast. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 122 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 The long term forecast is at least somewhat dependent on how the stalled frontal boundary evolves over the NE Gulf and adjacent Atlantic coastal waters. With much of the area on the northern side of the boundary, a slightly drier airmass should produce somewhat lower PoPs for the 4th of July Holiday into the first part of the weekend. The exception may be the SE Big Bend, closer to the boundary or developing weak low. However, with the lower PoPs, high temperatures will likely be on the increase as well, with mid to upper 90s possible. By early next week, a return to more typical summertime temperatures and rainfall chances is likely. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 122 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Potential for MVFR in low clouds and fog this morning at DHN/ABY and to a lesser extent at VLD. A return to VFR by late morning as cigs slowly lift. SHRA/TSRA redevelop today at all terminals, with brief MVFR restrictions possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 122 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Light to moderate westerly to southwesterly breezes continue across the northeastern Gulf thanks to high pressure anchored in the Atlantic. A weakening cold front approaches today into Thursday and will increase westerly breezes for the middle of the week. A weak area of low pressure may develop along the tail end of the remnant front over the northeastern Gulf Friday or Saturday. Otherwise, late night and early morning thunderstorms are expected the next several days; they`ll come with gusty winds, lightning, and the potential for waterspouts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 122 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Wetting rains across much of the region today will shift to mainly east of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers by Friday with a drying trend further west as a weak front moves through the area. The main concern will be dispersions, with pockets of low values this afternoon across much of the region, then increasing potential for high values across much of the region on Friday. Otherwise, thunderstorms on thursday afternoon may produce brief erratic and gusty winds. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 153 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Broad trough, deep moisture, and approaching weak front will keep wet pattern in place through Wednesday across the entire area, and into Thursday across the southern half. Highest additional rainfall totals will be across the southern half of the forecast area, where 1 to 3 inches are possible, although locally higher amounts cannot be ruled out. Localized flash remains a possibly, especially along the coast into the SE Big Bend, where the potential for heavy rainfall will extend into the latter part of the week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 89 74 91 74 / 70 60 60 10 Panama City 89 76 93 76 / 60 50 30 10 Dothan 89 73 93 73 / 60 40 20 0 Albany 89 73 92 73 / 70 50 30 10 Valdosta 90 73 91 73 / 70 50 60 20 Cross City 88 73 90 72 / 80 60 90 40 Apalachicola 87 76 90 76 / 70 50 50 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ early this morning for FLZ114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
