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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tallahassee, FL (TAE) (Florida Panhandle) Selection: |
| #1256593 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:00 AM 08.Jan.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 552 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 543 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 - Dense Fog Advisory in effect through at least mid-morning. Use caution when driving or boating. Patchy to areas of fog remain in the forecast the next couple of mornings. - Rain chances increase Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning. There is a medium to high (50 to 80 percent) chance for rain across the area. - Much colder temperatures return Sunday into early next week. Our Florida counties currently have a medium (40 to 60 percent) chance of freezing temperatures Sunday night into Monday; Alabama and Georgia counties have a medium to high (50 to 80 percent) chance. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 103 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 Fog. That`s the name of the game again today, Friday, and the first part of Saturday. How quickly the fog is able to dissipate each day will dictate how warm each afternoon gets. Temperatures will generally climb into the middle to upper 70s the next few days, but a few spots will hit 80 degrees, or near record territory. A cold front arrives Saturday afternoon into the evening and will bring showers and a few thunderstorms along with it. While an isolated strong to severe storm is possible, the likelihood is low. The better dynamics and lift will be lifting north and east of our area. However, deep-layer shear of 40 to 50 knots is enough that we`ll keep an eye on the radar Saturday afternoon into the evening as the line of showers/storms rolls through. The winds of winter follow the front as temperatures take a tumble Sunday. Temperatures will likely be warmest in the morning, at least across Southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, before cooling through the afternoon. A couple of mornings at or below freezing are expected Monday and Tuesday. The combination of the wind and colder temperatures Monday morning will bring wind chill values, or the feels-like temperature, into the 20s for most of the area and may flirt with Cold Weather Advisory criteria in Florida, or wind chills below 25 degrees. Daytime highs will hang out in the 50s Monday afternoon, or a solid 10 degrees below normal, and the upper 50s to near 60 Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 LIFR to VLIFR visibility continues this morning and is expected to through mid-morning before the fog lifts to a stratus deck. The stratus deck should start to break apart and dissipate by mid to late morning into the early afternoon at the latest. Amendments can be expected this morning depending on how long the fog/stratus lingers. VFR conditions generally prevail once the fog/stratus dissipates with a light southerly breeze. Another round of LIFR to VLIFR fog/stratus is forecast again tonight. Went with an earlier arrival of some of the fog/stratus tonight based on what`s happened in similar patterns the past several weeks. So some adjustments to the timing are possible in future TAF packages. && .MARINE... Issued at 103 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 Dense fog is a concern for boaters across the northeastern Gulf the next couple of days. Otherwise, favorable boating conditions are forecast outside of the fog with a light to moderate southeasterly to southerly breeze through the end of the week. Winds increase to near Cautionary levels ahead of a cold front Saturday. Advisory level northerly winds are forecast behind the front Saturday night into Sunday with a gust to gale force possible west of Apalachicola during the day Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 103 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 Morning fog and/or low stratus continues to be the main concern the rest of the week into Saturday. Any fog/stratus should lift by late morning/early afternoon. Poor dispersions are forecast along the Gulf Coast again today along with the Florida Big Bend and southern Georgia. Fair to good dispersions are then forecast Friday across much of the area outside of around Apalachee Bay, where poor dispersions will linger. A cold front sweeps through Saturday afternoon into the evening, bringing showers and a thunderstorm or two along with it. Much drier and cooler weather arrives Sunday behind the front as MinRH values tank to between 25 to 35 percent across the region. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 103 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 Little to no flooding concerns are anticipated the next several days. Saturday`s cold front will bring some rain to the area, but the most likely rainfall totals are forecast to be less than 0.50". Although those west of the Flint/Apalachicola Rivers have a low (10 to 30 percent) chance at receiving more than 1.0" of rain from Saturday`s cold front. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 75 57 77 60 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 74 59 75 64 / 0 10 10 20 Dothan 75 57 78 64 / 0 0 0 20 Albany 75 56 80 60 / 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 76 57 81 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 78 56 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 68 60 70 62 / 0 0 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326- 426. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ120>131- 142>148-155>161. AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ065>069. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for GMZ730-735-751-752-755-765-775. && $$ |
| #1256577 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:12 AM 08.Jan.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 106 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 103 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 - Dense Fog Advisory in effect through at least mid-morning. Use caution when driving or boating. Patchy to areas of fog remain in the forecast the next couple of mornings. - Rain chances increase Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning. There is a medium to high (50 to 80 percent) chance for rain across the area. - Much colder temperatures return Sunday into early next week. Our Florida counties currently have a medium (40 to 60 percent) chance of freezing temperatures Sunday night into Monday; Alabama and Georgia counties have a medium to high (50 to 80 percent) chance. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 103 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 Fog. That`s the name of the game again today, Friday, and the first part of Saturday. How quickly the fog is able to dissipate each day will dictate how warm each afternoon gets. Temperatures will generally climb into the middle to upper 70s the next few days, but a few spots will hit 80 degrees, or near record territory. A cold front arrives Saturday afternoon into the evening and will bring showers and a few thunderstorms along with it. While an isolated strong to severe storm is possible, the likelihood is low. The better dynamics and lift will be lifting north and east of our area. However, deep-layer shear of 40 to 50 knots is enough that we`ll keep an eye on the radar Saturday afternoon into the evening as the line of showers/storms rolls through. The winds of winter follow the front as temperatures take a tumble Sunday. Temperatures will likely be warmest in the morning, at least across Southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, before cooling through the afternoon. A couple of mornings at or below freezing are expected Monday and Tuesday. The combination of the wind and colder temperatures Monday morning will bring wind chill values, or the feels-like temperature, into the 20s for most of the area and may flirt with Cold Weather Advisory criteria in Florida, or wind chills below 25 degrees. Daytime highs will hang out in the 50s Monday afternoon, or a solid 10 degrees below normal, and the upper 50s to near 60 Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 103 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 Fog is the main concern overnight into Thursday morning. LIFR to VLIFR visibility is forecast at all the terminals through early Thursday morning before the fog slowly lifts to a stratus deck by mid to late morning. Cloud should break apart this afternoon with MVFR to VFR ceilings expected along with a light southerly breeze. Another round of LIFR to VLIFR fog and/or low stratus is forecast Thursday night and have reflected that in the latest TAF package at all the terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 103 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 Dense fog is a concern for boaters across the northeastern Gulf the next couple of days. Otherwise, favorable boating conditions are forecast outside of the fog with a light to moderate southeasterly to southerly breeze through the end of the week. Winds increase to near Cautionary levels ahead of a cold front Saturday. Advisory level northerly winds are forecast behind the front Saturday night into Sunday with a gust to gale force possible west of Apalachicola during the day Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 103 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 Morning fog and/or low stratus continues to be the main concern the rest of the week into Saturday. Any fog/stratus should lift by late morning/early afternoon. Poor dispersions are forecast along the Gulf Coast again today along with the Florida Big Bend and southern Georgia. Fair to good dispersions are then forecast Friday across much of the area outside of around Apalachee Bay, where poor dispersions will linger. A cold front sweeps through Saturday afternoon into the evening, bringing showers and a thunderstorm or two along with it. Much drier and cooler weather arrives Sunday behind the front as MinRH values tank to between 25 to 35 percent across the region. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 103 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 Little to no flooding concerns are anticipated the next several days. Saturday`s cold front will bring some rain to the area, but the most likely rainfall totals are forecast to be less than 0.50". Although those west of the Flint/Apalachicola Rivers have a low (10 to 30 percent) chance at receiving more than 1.0" of rain from Saturday`s cold front. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 75 57 77 60 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 74 59 75 64 / 0 10 10 20 Dothan 75 57 78 64 / 0 0 0 20 Albany 75 56 80 60 / 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 76 57 81 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 78 56 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 68 60 70 62 / 0 0 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326- 426. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ120>131- 142>148-155>161. AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ065>069. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for GMZ730-735-751-752-755-765-775. && $$ |
