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Nothing near term in the Atlantic now as Post-SubTropical Josephine heads out to sea.
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tallahassee, FL (TAE) (Florida Panhandle) Selection: |
| #1283946 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 PM 29.Oct.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 740 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 740 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 - Fresh northeast breezes over the Gulf waters will experience a broad increase and become strong this weekend. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected this weekend. - Chances for showers and storms increase this weekend, particularly on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Friday Night) Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 The upper level trough to our east over the Atlantic and the upper level ridge to our west will continue the pleasant weather pattern we`ve had. Northeast winds, gusty at times, and above average temperatures in the low to mid-80s with overnight lows in the 60s. Changes to the weather arrive this weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Saturday morning will be like previous morning with temperatures in the mid 60s. Winds will become more easterly as an upper level shortwave trough approaches the region. At the surface, a backdoor cold front will bring in moisture that will increase our rain chances for the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible for Saturday, mainly for the Florida Panhandle and our marine zones. Coverage expands for Sunday with PoPs ranging from 30-60 percent, with the highest chances along and south of I-10. Forecast models are pushing most of the rain further south into our marine zones, however we could see around 0.25 to 0.5 inches of rain for areas south of I-10, with isolated higher amounts up to an inch. Rain and storms should move out of the region for the start of the work week. Temperatures this weekend will be up and down as the front moves through. Saturday will be in the low to mid 80s, then Sunday will have highs in the mid to upper 70s, as we will have cloudy skies with the rain. We will continue in an active weather pattern with another system approaching the region by midweek, which could bring another round of showers and thunderstorms. At this time, for both systems, severe weather is not expected. This looks like to mainly be a beneficial rain event, as our soils are not heavily saturated, so flooding is not really a concern at the moment. Temperatures for the rest of the long term will be returning to the low 80s, with overnight lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 740 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Satellite imagery shows a large area of stratocumulus with bases in the 045-060 range, stretching from TLH and ABY on eastward, including VLD. These clouds are expanding toward the west and may overtake ECP and DHN in several hours. The back edge of this cloud deck is now moving onto the Georgia coast, so partial clearing may come in from the east late tonight or early Friday morning. Otherwise, surface winds will continue from the northeast. && .MARINE... Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Moderate to fresh northeasterly breezes will become more easterly by Saturday morning as a shortwave trough moves over the waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for our offshore waters through tomorrow; however an extension for the weekend is on the table as nocturnal surges are common with easterly flow. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase for this weekend with PoPs ranging from 40 to 80 percent, with the highest chances in our offshore waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Northeasterly transport winds will become easterly during the day on Friday with speeds of around 10-15 mph. Winds will remain easterly through the weekend. Afternoon dispersions will be good Friday through the weekend, with Sunday being more fair. Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast this weekend, with widespread chances of scattered storms Saturday evening and Sunday. Best chances will be for the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. For the next few days, there are virtually no fire weather concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are expected for this weekend, beginning Saturday. We can expect about 0.5 inches through the weekend into the start of next week, with most of the accumulation in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. At this time, our rivers are in good condition and flooding concerns are low. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 64 84 67 83 / 0 0 0 10 Panama City 65 83 68 82 / 0 0 0 10 Dothan 60 82 64 81 / 0 0 0 20 Albany 59 82 63 80 / 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 61 84 64 82 / 0 0 0 10 Cross City 65 84 68 84 / 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 67 80 69 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Friday for GMZ770- 772-775. && $$ |
| #1283934 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:36 PM 29.Oct.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 320 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 318 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 - Fresh northeast breezes over the Gulf waters will continue to support a prolonged period of hazardous marine conditions through the weekend. - Chances for showers and storms increase this weekend, particularly on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Friday Night) Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 The upper level trough to our east over the Atlantic and the upper level ridge to our west will continue the pleasant weather pattern we`ve had. Northeast winds, gusty at times, and above average temperatures in the low to mid-80s with overnight lows in the 60s. Changes to the weather arrive this weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Saturday morning will be like previous morning with temperatures in the mid 60s. Winds will become more easterly as an upper level shortwave trough approaches the region. At the surface, a backdoor cold front will bring in moisture that will increase our rain chances for the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible for Saturday, mainly for the Florida Panhandle and our marine zones. Coverage expands for Sunday with PoPs ranging from 30-60 percent, with the highest chances along and south of I-10. Forecast models are pushing most of the rain further south into our marine zones, however we could see around 0.25 to 0.5 inches of rain for areas south of I-10, with isolated higher amounts up to an inch. Rain and storms should move out of the region for the start of the work week. Temperatures this weekend will be up and down as the front moves through. Saturday will be in the low to mid 80s, then Sunday will have highs in the mid to upper 70s, as we will have cloudy skies with the rain. We will continue in an active weather pattern with another system approaching the region by midweek, which could bring another round of showers and thunderstorms. At this time, for both systems, severe weather is not expected. This looks like to mainly be a beneficial rain event, as our soils are not heavily saturated, so flooding is not really a concern at the moment. Temperatures for the rest of the long term will be returning to the low 80s, with overnight lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Brief periods of MVFR will be possible at KVLD as the clouds overhead continue to erode. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Moderate to fresh northeasterly breezes will become more easterly by Saturday morning as a shortwave trough moves over the waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for our offshore waters through tomorrow; however an extension for the weekend is on the table as nocturnal surges are common with easterly flow. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase for this weekend with PoPs ranging from 40 to 80 percent, with the highest chances in our offshore waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Northeasterly transport winds will become easterly during the day on Friday with speeds of around 10-15 mph. Winds will remain easterly through the weekend. Afternoon dispersions will be good Friday through the weekend, with Sunday being more fair. Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast this weekend, with widespread chances of scattered storms Saturday evening and Sunday. Best chances will be for the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. For the next few days, there are virtually no fire weather concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are expected for this weekend, beginning Saturday. We can expect about 0.5 inches through the weekend into the start of next week, with most of the accumulation in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. At this time, our rivers are in good condition and flooding concerns are low. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 64 84 67 83 / 0 0 0 10 Panama City 65 83 68 82 / 0 0 0 10 Dothan 60 82 64 81 / 0 0 0 20 Albany 59 82 63 80 / 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 61 84 64 82 / 0 0 0 10 Cross City 65 84 68 84 / 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 67 80 69 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Friday for GMZ770- 772-775. && $$ |
| #1283911 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 PM 29.Oct.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 131 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 130 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 - Fresh northeast breezes over the Gulf waters will continue to support a prolonged period of hazardous marine conditions through the weekend. - Chances for showers and storms increase this weekend, particularly on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Ridging remains in place for another day or two before moving to the east this weekend. Warm and dry weather prevails until then with highs in the low to mid 80s, running several degrees above average. Lows likewise will mainly be in the 60s. Changes to the weather arrive this weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 This weekend, a shortwave trough will dig into the central and eastern Gulf Coast with a weak low pressure system riding along the Gulf Coast. This system has trended further south and east over the last 24 hours. When looking at this system last night, the heavier rain was situated more over central parts of Alabama, but now it is moreso over the Florida Panhandle and offshore. Still, we`re looking at medium chances for rain late Saturday night into Sunday (40-60%). Timing will be tricky (no pun intended) for trick-or-treat activities as the first showers could arrive late Saturday afternoon into the evening in the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama. Another wrench in the forecast will be for Sunday`s temperatures as high pressure tries to build southward down the Appalachians and low pressure rides along the central Gulf Coast. Pattern recognition and some of the modeling show the potential for cold air damming across our area, especially with cloud cover and rain around. Thus, have nudged temperatures downward and may need to monitor for further adjustments. Our weekend system moves out just in time for the start of the workweek. But our attention will turn to the next system by arriving mid-week with another chance for showers and storms beginning Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Brief periods of MVFR will be possible at KVLD as the clouds overhead continue to erode. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Moderate northeasterly breezes continue today before freshening tonight over the offshore waters. There is a medium to high chance of advisory-level winds tonight well offshore, and the Small Craft Advisory has been extended again for these areas through Friday morning to account for this. This pattern of nocturnal surges in wind will continue through the weekend, especially for waters west of Apalachicola and offshore waters. Showers and thunderstorms return this weekend as an area of low pressure moves eastward along the coast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Dry weather continues through Friday before rain chances increase late Saturday into Sunday. East to northeast transport winds around 10-15 mph will continue for the next few days with good dispersions each afternoon. RH values will remain well above critical levels. Overall, no fire weather concerns are expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Rainfall totals with this weekend`s system will generally be around 0.5 to 1 inch with the higher totals favored near the coast. Some localized areas could see up to 2 inches on the high end. Another system will bring showers and storms mid next week. However, flooding concerns appear low with both systems. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 64 84 66 83 / 0 0 0 20 Panama City 65 83 67 82 / 0 0 0 30 Dothan 60 82 63 80 / 0 0 0 30 Albany 59 82 62 79 / 0 0 0 20 Valdosta 61 84 63 82 / 0 0 0 20 Cross City 65 84 67 84 / 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 66 80 68 79 / 0 0 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Friday for GMZ770- 772-775. && $$ |
| #1283904 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:03 AM 29.Oct.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 955 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 954 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 - Fresh northeast breezes over the Gulf waters will continue to support a prolonged period of hazardous marine conditions through the weekend. - Chances for showers and storms increase this weekend, particularly on Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 954 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 The previous forecast appears to be on track, and no major changes were made. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Ridging remains in place for another day or two before moving to the east this weekend. Warm and dry weather prevails until then with highs in the low to mid 80s, running several degrees above average. Lows likewise will mainly be in the 60s. Changes to the weather arrive this weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 This weekend, a shortwave trough will dig into the central and eastern Gulf Coast with a weak low pressure system riding along the Gulf Coast. This system has trended further south and east over the last 24 hours. When looking at this system last night, the heavier rain was situated more over central parts of Alabama, but now it is moreso over the Florida Panhandle and offshore. Still, we`re looking at medium chances for rain late Saturday night into Sunday (40-60%). Timing will be tricky (no pun intended) for trick-or-treat activities as the first showers could arrive late Saturday afternoon into the evening in the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama. Another wrench in the forecast will be for Sunday`s temperatures as high pressure tries to build southward down the Appalachians and low pressure rides along the central Gulf Coast. Pattern recognition and some of the modeling show the potential for cold air damming across our area, especially with cloud cover and rain around. Thus, have nudged temperatures downward and may need to monitor for further adjustments. Our weekend system moves out just in time for the start of the workweek. But our attention will turn to the next system by arriving mid-week with another chance for showers and storms beginning Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 This morning, a stratus deck is expected to move westward from the Atlantic. As a result, MVFR cigs are forecast for VLD near sunrise with VFR returning again by early afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions at the remainder of the sites through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Moderate northeasterly breezes continue today before freshening tonight over the offshore waters. There is a medium to high chance of advisory-level winds tonight well offshore, and the Small Craft Advisory has been extended again for these areas through Friday morning to account for this. This pattern of nocturnal surges in wind will continue through the weekend, especially for waters west of Apalachicola and offshore waters. Showers and thunderstorms return this weekend as an area of low pressure moves eastward along the coast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Dry weather continues through Friday before rain chances increase late Saturday into Sunday. East to northeast transport winds around 10-15 mph will continue for the next few days with good dispersions each afternoon. RH values will remain well above critical levels. Overall, no fire weather concerns are expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Rainfall totals with this weekend`s system will generally be around 0.5 to 1 inch with the higher totals favored near the coast. Some localized areas could see up to 2 inches on the high end. Another system will bring showers and storms mid next week. However, flooding concerns appear low with both systems. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 83 64 84 66 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 82 65 83 67 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 81 60 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 81 59 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 82 61 84 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 83 65 84 67 / 10 0 0 0 Apalachicola 79 66 80 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Friday for GMZ770- 772-775. && $$ |
| #1283890 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 29.Oct.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 635 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 632 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 - Fresh northeast breezes over the Gulf waters will continue to support a prolonged period of hazardous marine conditions through the weekend. - Chances for showers and storms increase this weekend, particularly on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Ridging remains in place for another day or two before moving to the east this weekend. Warm and dry weather prevails until then with highs in the low to mid 80s, running several degrees above average. Lows likewise will mainly be in the 60s. Changes to the weather arrive this weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 This weekend, a shortwave trough will dig into the central and eastern Gulf Coast with a weak low pressure system riding along the Gulf Coast. This system has trended further south and east over the last 24 hours. When looking at this system last night, the heavier rain was situated more over central parts of Alabama, but now it is moreso over the Florida Panhandle and offshore. Still, we`re looking at medium chances for rain late Saturday night into Sunday (40-60%). Timing will be tricky (no pun intended) for trick-or-treat activities as the first showers could arrive late Saturday afternoon into the evening in the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama. Another wrench in the forecast will be for Sunday`s temperatures as high pressure tries to build southward down the Appalachians and low pressure rides along the central Gulf Coast. Pattern recognition and some of the modeling show the potential for cold air damming across our area, especially with cloud cover and rain around. Thus, have nudged temperatures downward and may need to monitor for further adjustments. Our weekend system moves out just in time for the start of the workweek. But our attention will turn to the next system by arriving mid-week with another chance for showers and storms beginning Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 This morning, a stratus deck is expected to move westward from the Atlantic. As a result, MVFR cigs are forecast for VLD near sunrise with VFR returning again by early afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions at the remainder of the sites through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Moderate northeasterly breezes continue today before freshening tonight over the offshore waters. There is a medium to high chance of advisory-level winds tonight well offshore, and the Small Craft Advisory has been extended again for these areas through Friday morning to account for this. This pattern of nocturnal surges in wind will continue through the weekend, especially for waters west of Apalachicola and offshore waters. Showers and thunderstorms return this weekend as an area of low pressure moves eastward along the coast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Dry weather continues through Friday before rain chances increase late Saturday into Sunday. East to northeast transport winds around 10-15 mph will continue for the next few days with good dispersions each afternoon. RH values will remain well above critical levels. Overall, no fire weather concerns are expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Rainfall totals with this weekend`s system will generally be around 0.5 to 1 inch with the higher totals favored near the coast. Some localized areas could see up to 2 inches on the high end. Another system will bring showers and storms mid next week. However, flooding concerns appear low with both systems. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 83 64 84 66 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 82 65 83 67 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 81 60 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 81 59 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 82 61 84 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 83 65 84 67 / 10 0 0 0 Apalachicola 79 66 80 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Friday for GMZ770- 772-775. && $$ |
| #1283872 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 AM 29.Oct.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 230 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 227 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 - Fresh northeast breezes over the Gulf waters will continue to support a prolonged period of hazardous marine conditions through the weekend. - Chances for showers and storms increase this weekend, particularly on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Ridging remains in place for another day or two before moving to the east this weekend. Warm and dry weather prevails until then with highs in the low to mid 80s, running several degrees above average. Lows likewise will mainly be in the 60s. Changes to the weather arrive this weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 This weekend, a shortwave trough will dig into the central and eastern Gulf Coast with a weak low pressure system riding along the Gulf Coast. This system has trended further south and east over the last 24 hours. When looking at this system last night, the heavier rain was situated more over central parts of Alabama, but now it is moreso over the Florida Panhandle and offshore. Still, we`re looking at medium chances for rain late Saturday night into Sunday (40-60%). Timing will be tricky (no pun intended) for trick-or-treat activities as the first showers could arrive late Saturday afternoon into the evening in the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama. Another wrench in the forecast will be for Sunday`s temperatures as high pressure tries to build southward down the Appalachians and low pressure rides along the central Gulf Coast. Pattern recognition and some of the modeling show the potential for cold air damming across our area, especially with cloud cover and rain around. Thus, have nudged temperatures downward and may need to monitor for further adjustments. Our weekend system moves out just in time for the start of the workweek. But our attention will turn to the next system by arriving mid-week with another chance for showers and storms beginning Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 114 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 VFR cigs are expected to prevail through most of the night for most areas. For early Thursday morning, a stratus deck is expected to move westward from the Atlantic. As a result, MVFR cigs are forecast for VLD near sunrise with VFR returning again by early afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Moderate northeasterly breezes continue today before freshening tonight over the offshore waters. There is a medium to high chance of advisory-level winds tonight well offshore, and the Small Craft Advisory has been extended again for these areas through Friday morning to account for this. This pattern of nocturnal surges in wind will continue through the weekend, especially for waters west of Apalachicola and offshore waters. Showers and thunderstorms return this weekend as an area of low pressure moves eastward along the coast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Dry weather continues through Friday before rain chances increase late Saturday into Sunday. East to northeast transport winds around 10-15 mph will continue for the next few days with good dispersions each afternoon. RH values will remain well above critical levels. Overall, no fire weather concerns are expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Rainfall totals with this weekend`s system will generally be around 0.5 to 1 inch with the higher totals favored near the coast. Some localized areas could see up to 2 inches on the high end. Another system will bring showers and storms mid next week. However, flooding concerns appear low with both systems. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 83 64 84 66 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 82 65 83 67 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 81 60 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 81 59 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 82 61 84 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 83 65 84 67 / 10 0 0 0 Apalachicola 79 66 80 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Friday for GMZ770- 772-775. && $$ |
| #1283864 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 AM 29.Oct.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 114 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 114 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 - Fresh northeast breezes over the Gulf waters will continue to support a prolonged period of hazardous marine conditions through the weekend. - Chances for showers and storms increase this weekend, particularly on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (This Evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 317 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026 Low level northeasterly flow will continue for the next couple of days as surface troughing maintains in the Bahamas and high pressure remains anchored in the eastern US. A few gusts to 20 mph will occur each afternoon through Friday. Ridging overhead will keep conditions dry with highs above normal with readings in the low to mid 80s and lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Heading into the weekend, mid level ridging will get shunted southward as a shortwave trough develops in the desert southwest and ejects into the southern Plains and southern Mississippi Valley Friday and Saturday and into the southeast US Sunday. Rain chances Halloween evening increase (30-40%) generally west of a Tallahassee to Albany line with the higher end into southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle. Not anticipating a washout as higher rainfall amounts appear relegated to overnight Saturday night into Sunday. Stashing a small umbrella into the treat bag of little ghosts and ghouls might be a good idea. Rainfall exits stage right Sunday night into Monday with dry conditions anticipated Tuesday as shortwave ridging builds through the southeast US on the heels of the departing trough. Looking upstream, a stout upper low develops over the central Plains with a cold front slicing through the Mid-South. This system will gradually move into the southeast US later next week. Slightly cooler temperatures are in the offering Sunday and Monday with highs generally in the mid to upper 70s. A gradual warming trend will occur into Tuesday with readings back into the low 80s. Overnight lows MOnday and Tuesday mornings will bottom out in the upper 50s. && .LONG TERM... && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 114 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 VFR cigs are expected to prevail through most of the night for most areas. For early Thursday morning, a stratus deck is expected to move westward from the Atlantic. As a result, MVFR cigs are forecast for VLD near sunrise with VFR returning again by early afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 317 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026 Moderate to fresh northeasterly breezes continue through Friday between high pressure to the north and low pressure in the Bahamas. Winds turn more easterly ahead of a low pressure system this coming up weekend. Small Craft Advisories continue for the central and western portions of our waters, and this may need to be extended into more of our western waters into the weekend. Seas remain around 3 to 6 feet. Rain chances will increase this weekend over the waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 317 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026 The stretch of dry weather will continue through Friday. Northeasterly transport winds will continue around 15-20 mph Thursday with a gradual weakening of the wind Friday into the weekend. Good dispersions are anticipated through Friday with some possibility of low dispersions along coastal locations and the Florida panhandle Saturday. Wetting rains return beginning Saturday afternoon through Monday morning as a low pressure system moves through the southeast US. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 317 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026 Average rainfall amounts will be around an inch this weekend with isolated higher amounts to 2 inches. These amounts will fall from Saturday afternoon through Monday morning, with a period of dry conditions afterwards into midweek. Flooding is not expected at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 83 64 84 66 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 82 65 83 67 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 81 60 82 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 81 59 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 82 61 84 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 83 66 84 67 / 10 0 0 0 Apalachicola 79 66 80 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for GMZ752-755-770-772-775. && $$ |
