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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tallahassee, FL (TAE) (Florida Panhandle) Selection: |
| #1278816 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:30 AM 14.Sep.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1019 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1019 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 - Moderate to locally dangerous heat-related impacts are expected today and Tuesday, with heat index values generally reaching 100-108 degrees, especially over the Florida counties. - Small craft advisories are likely Tuesday night through Thursday as well as high risk for rip currents. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1019 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 No forecast updates are needed this morning. Satellite-derived PW imagery shows 1.5+ inch values mainly over Dixie County and clinging to the Forgotten and Emerald Coasts. Therefore, afternoon storms will mainly favor the SE Big Bend. The low-level northerly flow will inhibit seabreeze activity along the Forgotten and Emerald Coasts due to difficulty of getting an established or sustained seabreeze. Drier PWs in the 1.2-1.4 inch range are nosing south through SW GA toward TLH, so that will certainly amount to convective shutdown in those areas. Inland of any beachfront seabreeze, enough mixing today could even push afternoon dewpoints down into the upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through next Sunday) Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Upper level ridging will build throughout the southeast US through midweek, with subsidence strengthening and drier air in the mid levels leading to PWATs dropping to 1.3-1.5" (a little higher near the coast). Rain chances today and Tuesday will be shoved to the coast and offshore then generally offshore Wednesday. In the meantime, surface ridging develops down the Appalachians into the northern Gulf clocking low level flow from northwesterly to drier northeasterly flow. In fact, PWATs Wednesday and Thursday will be under an inch and little, if any, rain chances expected. Therefore, a mostly dry forecast is anticipated today through Thursday for much of the inland areas. The ridge retreats westward beginning Thursday as an upper low rounds the east side of the upper ridge moving west and into the Gulf Friday through Sunday. Low level flow will gradually become onshore next weekend with moisture and higher PWATs returning. With this, rain chances start to return first across the Florida Big Bend Friday then higher rain chances work northward across the area Saturday and Sunday. Highs today and Tuesday will be the hottest of the period. Mid to upper 90s are forecast as the drier air works in but also help to lower the dewpoints towards the upper 60s to lower 70s. Heat indices will generally be 100-107F. Slightly higher dewpoints will reside near the coast so heat indices may briefly exceed 107F locally in these areas. As the northeasterly flow kicks in beginning Wednesday and as the ridge moves westward, highs will be not as hot with readings in the upper 80s to lower 90s. As the upper low moves by, additional cloud cover and rain chances will keep highs in the lower 90s into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. A little bit of patchy fog has developed around VLD, and this may last for the next couple hours. Otherwise, generally light N-NE winds are expected today, except at ECP where the sea breeze will turn winds more W-SW this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Light to gentle northwest winds will be in place today and tonight with high pressure located in the north central Gulf. By Tuesday, surface ridging will stretch through the Appalachians south into the northern Gulf, causing our winds to become easterly and strengthen a bit. Fresh to strong easterly winds develop Tuesday night and persist into Thursday. A small craft advisory will likely be needed during this time frame. Drier air through late week will reduce coverage of storms until an upper low translating the northern Gulf brings better chances this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 High pressure will build into the southeast and strengthen into mid week. Drier air associated with the high will act to reduce rain chances much of the week. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s today and Tuesday with heat indices reaching the low to mid 100s with a low chance of exceeding 107F in coastal locations. Transport winds increase Tuesday leading to pockets of high dispersions through the wiregrass region south into the Florida districts into Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 No flash or riverine flooding expected this week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 96 75 95 73 / 0 0 10 0 Panama City 93 77 94 75 / 10 0 20 0 Dothan 95 73 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 96 73 95 70 / 0 0 10 0 Valdosta 95 73 93 71 / 0 0 10 0 Cross City 94 74 93 74 / 30 20 40 0 Apalachicola 91 77 90 77 / 20 10 20 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1278802 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:27 AM 14.Sep.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 618 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 612 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 - Moderate to locally dangerous heat-related impacts are expected today and Tuesday, with heat index values generally reaching 100-108 degrees, especially over the Florida counties. - Small craft advisories are likely Tuesday night through Thursday as well as high risk for rip currents. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through next Sunday) Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Upper level ridging will build throughout the southeast US through midweek, with subsidence strengthening and drier air in the mid levels leading to PWATs dropping to 1.3-1.5" (a little higher near the coast). Rain chances today and Tuesday will be shoved to the coast and offshore then generally offshore Wednesday. In the meantime, surface ridging develops down the Appalachians into the northern Gulf clocking low level flow from northwesterly to drier northeasterly flow. In fact, PWATs Wednesday and Thursday will be under an inch and little, if any, rain chances expected. Therefore, a mostly dry forecast is anticipated today through Thursday for much of the inland areas. The ridge retreats westward beginning Thursday as an upper low rounds the east side of the upper ridge moving west and into the Gulf Friday through Sunday. Low level flow will gradually become onshore next weekend with moisture and higher PWATs returning. With this, rain chances start to return first across the Florida Big Bend Friday then higher rain chances work northward across the area Saturday and Sunday. Highs today and Tuesday will be the hottest of the period. Mid to upper 90s are forecast as the drier air works in but also help to lower the dewpoints towards the upper 60s to lower 70s. Heat indices will generally be 100-107F. Slightly higher dewpoints will reside near the coast so heat indices may briefly exceed 107F locally in these areas. As the northeasterly flow kicks in beginning Wednesday and as the ridge moves westward, highs will be not as hot with readings in the upper 80s to lower 90s. As the upper low moves by, additional cloud cover and rain chances will keep highs in the lower 90s into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. A little bit of patchy fog has developed around VLD, and this may last for the next couple hours. Otherwise, generally light N-NE winds are expected today, except at ECP where the sea breeze will turn winds more W-SW this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Light to gentle northwest winds will be in place today and tonight with high pressure located in the north central Gulf. By Tuesday, surface ridging will stretch through the Appalachians south into the northern Gulf, causing our winds to become easterly and strengthen a bit. Fresh to strong easterly winds develop Tuesday night and persist into Thursday. A small craft advisory will likely be needed during this time frame. Drier air through late week will reduce coverage of storms until an upper low translating the northern Gulf brings better chances this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 High pressure will build into the southeast and strengthen into mid week. Drier air associated with the high will act to reduce rain chances much of the week. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s today and Tuesday with heat indices reaching the low to mid 100s with a low chance of exceeding 107F in coastal locations. Transport winds increase Tuesday leading to pockets of high dispersions through the wiregrass region south into the Florida districts into Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 No flash or riverine flooding expected this week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 96 75 95 73 / 0 0 10 0 Panama City 93 77 94 75 / 10 0 20 0 Dothan 95 73 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 96 73 95 70 / 0 0 10 0 Valdosta 95 73 93 71 / 0 0 10 0 Cross City 94 74 93 74 / 30 20 40 0 Apalachicola 91 77 90 77 / 20 10 20 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1278789 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:27 AM 14.Sep.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 226 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 - Moderate to locally dangerous heat-related impacts are expected today and Tuesday, with heat index values generally reaching 100-108 degrees, especially over the Florida counties. - Small craft advisories are likely Tuesday night through Thursday as well as high risk for rip currents. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through next Sunday) Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Upper level ridging will build throughout the southeast US through midweek, with subsidence strengthening and drier air in the mid levels leading to PWATs dropping to 1.3-1.5" (a little higher near the coast). Rain chances today and Tuesday will be shoved to the coast and offshore then generally offshore Wednesday. In the meantime, surface ridging develops down the Appalachians into the northern Gulf clocking low level flow from northwesterly to drier northeasterly flow. In fact, PWATs Wednesday and Thursday will be under an inch and little, if any, rain chances expected. Therefore, a mostly dry forecast is anticipated today through Thursday for much of the inland areas. The ridge retreats westward beginning Thursday as an upper low rounds the east side of the upper ridge moving west and into the Gulf Friday through Sunday. Low level flow will gradually become onshore next weekend with moisture and higher PWATs returning. With this, rain chances start to return first across the Florida Big Bend Friday then higher rain chances work northward across the area Saturday and Sunday. Highs today and Tuesday will be the hottest of the period. Mid to upper 90s are forecast as the drier air works in but also help to lower the dewpoints towards the upper 60s to lower 70s. Heat indices will generally be 100-107F. Slightly higher dewpoints will reside near the coast so heat indices may briefly exceed 107F locally in these areas. As the northeasterly flow kicks in beginning Wednesday and as the ridge moves westward, highs will be not as hot with readings in the upper 80s to lower 90s. As the upper low moves by, additional cloud cover and rain chances will keep highs in the lower 90s into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 106 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. The exceptions may be brief reductions in cigs/vsbys in some patchy fog late in the night and first thing Monday morning. The best chance of this is at VLD where cigs may drop to LIFR and vsbys to IFR. Otherwise, MVFR vsbys are possible elsewhere except ECP. Winds will primarily be light and variable tonight then become light N/NE during the daytime hours Monday. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Light to gentle northwest winds will be in place today and tonight with high pressure located in the north central Gulf. By Tuesday, surface ridging will stretch through the Appalachians south into the northern Gulf, causing our winds to become easterly and strengthen a bit. Fresh to strong easterly winds develop Tuesday night and persist into Thursday. A small craft advisory will likely be needed during this time frame. Drier air through late week will reduce coverage of storms until an upper low translating the northern Gulf brings better chances this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 High pressure will build into the southeast and strengthen into mid week. Drier air associated with the high will act to reduce rain chances much of the week. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s today and Tuesday with heat indices reaching the low to mid 100s with a low chance of exceeding 107F in coastal locations. Transport winds increase Tuesday leading to pockets of high dispersions through the wiregrass region south into the Florida districts into Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 No flash or riverine flooding expected this week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 96 75 95 73 / 0 0 10 0 Panama City 93 77 94 75 / 10 0 20 0 Dothan 95 73 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 96 73 95 70 / 0 0 10 0 Valdosta 95 73 93 71 / 0 0 10 0 Cross City 94 74 93 74 / 30 20 40 0 Apalachicola 91 77 90 77 / 20 10 20 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1278779 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:12 AM 14.Sep.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 108 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 106 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 - Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms will remain possible today, primarily across the Florida counties, with diminishing coverage this evening. - A strong upper-level ridge will dominate the weather pattern through mid-week, leading to mostly dry conditions and very low rain chances across the entire forecast area Monday through Thursday. - Moderate to locally dangerous heat-related impacts are expected each day through Tuesday, with heat index values generally reaching 100-108 degrees, especially over the Florida counties. - Rain chances return late week into next weekend as an upper low approaches from the Atlantic, increasing moisture and instability. - Small craft advisories are possible Tuesday night through Thursday as well as high risk for rip currents. && .UPDATE... Issued at 847 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026 The biggest adjustment was to up POPs for Walton County, where an isolated shower/storm is ongoing. Otherwise, the forecast is on track. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 331 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026 The synoptic pattern across the Southeast U.S. continues to be dominated by a building upper-level ridge, which will be the primary driver of our weather through the short term. The mid-level trough that was across the Tennessee Valley is now pushing eastward off the Atlantic coast, allowing the ridge to strengthen and expand eastward. This pattern promotes subsidence and brings a drier airmass into the region, particularly from the northwest. For the remainder of today, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are still possible, mainly across the Florida counties where PWATs remain elevated. Convective coverage is expected to diminish rapidly this evening with sunset. Tonight, skies will clear across much of the area. Lows will be in the mid 70s across Florida and lower 70s for inland Georgia and Alabama. Patchy fog is expected to develop in inland areas, especially across portions of southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia, as light winds and ample low-level moisture persist overnight. Monday and Tuesday will be characterized by mostly sunny and hot conditions with very low rain chances. The strengthening surface high pressure along the Appalachians will establish a northerly to northeasterly flow, advecting drier air into the region. PWATs are forecast to drop to around 1 inch or less by mid-week, which is in the 10th percentile for this time of year, effectively suppressing convection. High temperatures will climb into the mid 90s across the entire forecast area on Monday and Tuesday. Coupled with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, this will result in widespread moderate heat index values ranging from 100-106 degrees. Some coastal Florida locations could see heat index values reach 107-108 degrees on Monday and Tuesday afternoons. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Saturday) Issued at 331 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026 The extended forecast period will see a gradual transition in the synoptic pattern. The dominant upper-level ridge, which brings dry and hot conditions through mid-week, will begin to shift westward. Wednesday and Thursday are expected to remain mostly clear and dry across the entire forecast area, with highs in the lower 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The dry airmass will persist, keeping rain chances very low. By Friday and into next weekend, a significant shift is anticipated. An upper low/trough is forecast to move southwestward over Florida on Thursday and then slowly westward across the northern Gulf through Friday and next weekend. This feature will act to relinquish the hold of strong subsidence over the area and provide a moisture channel, leading to increasing moisture and instability. As a result, rain chances will begin to return on Friday, primarily for the Florida Big Bend and gradually expanding northward into southern Georgia and Alabama through Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will remain warm, with highs generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s from Friday through Sunday, and lows in the lower 70s. The return of moisture will also bring back more humid conditions. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 106 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. The exceptions may be brief reductions in cigs/vsbys in some patchy fog late in the night and first thing Monday morning. The best chance of this is at VLD where cigs may drop to LIFR and vsbys to IFR. Otherwise, MVFR vsbys are possible elsewhere except ECP. Winds will primarily be light and variable tonight then become light N/NE during the daytime hours Monday. && .MARINE... Issued at 331 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026 Winds will gradually shift from the southwest to northwest through Monday as high pressure will reside in the central Gulf. Drier air filtering into the Gulf waters will act to suppress greater coverage of convection into mid week while strengthening high pressure to the northeast will clock winds to northeasterly while ratcheting up winds and seas Tuesday night through Thursday. Moderate winds Tuesday will become fresh Tuesday night through Thursday. There is now a medium chance of meeting or exceeding advisory level winds during this timeframe. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 331 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026 High pressure will build into the southeast US today and Monday and strengthen into mid week. Drier air associated with the high will act to reduce rain chances much of the week. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s Monday and Tuesday. Heat indices will reach the low to mid 100s with a low chance of exceeding 107F in coastal locations. Transport winds increase Tuesday leading to pockets of high dispersions through wiregrass region south into the Florida districts. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 331 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026 Flooding is not expected this week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 96 75 95 72 / 0 0 10 0 Panama City 94 77 94 75 / 10 0 10 0 Dothan 95 73 94 71 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 95 73 94 70 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 95 73 93 69 / 0 0 10 0 Cross City 94 74 93 73 / 30 10 30 0 Apalachicola 91 77 90 76 / 30 10 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
