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There is currently nothing on the horizon tropically in the Atlantic before Hurricane Season starts on June 1st.
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tallahassee, FL (TAE) (Florida Panhandle) Selection: |
| #1181056 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 PM 20.May.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 208 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Clouds have hung in longer than expected with plentiful moisture moving on northeast low level flow underneath the subsidence inversion. Adjusted hourly and max highs today to lower just a skoosh in a few places. If we can get a few more breaks, highs today should reach the mid/upper 80s. A few showers may occur along the seabreeze which should be short lived. Clouds should erode later today into this evening. High pressure will be anchored from the northern Gulf to offshore the eastern seaboard. Other than perhaps a shower or two in the southeast Big Bend Tuesday afternoon, the region will remain dry with upper ridging building overhead. Northeast winds will continue overnight into tomorrow with lows falling into the 60s and highs Tuesday reaching the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Upper level riding continues to build over the area with northerly flow prevailing before sliding southeast resulting in easterly flow overhead late Wednesday evening. Drier air coupled with large scale subsidence should result in clear skies and will kick off a warming trend lasting through the long term. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s with daytime highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with some mid 90s across our FL counties possible. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Upper level ridging continues with easterly flow aloft. A series of weak disturbances will ride east along the ridge axis over our area beginning Friday which will serve to bring us back to some low end rain and thunderstorm chances amidst the dry pattern. Chances have also increased due to southerly flow transporting more abundant low-level moisture across the forecast area. With predominately sunny conditions continuing through the long term, the warming trend will also continue. Daytime highs will remain in the low to mid 90s areawide with little relief overnight as overnight lows will drop into the upper 60s to low 70s. With increasing temperatures and dewpoints, heat indices are expected to see an increase as well. Later in the period, apparent temperatures will reach the upper 90s across our FL counties, perhaps reaching the low 100s Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 107 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Stratocu has lifted in most locations to just over VFR with a few spots remaining MVFR. Clouds have been hanging tough and models continue to scatter out too soon. Kept BKN 030-035 for the next few hours through around 20-21Z then begin to scatter through 00Z. Beyond 00z, a few high clouds should remain while stratocu should be dissipating. A light shower or two could occur along the seabreeze but should remain out of the aerodromes. Winds will continue from the northeast or east. && .MARINE... Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Winds are expected to clock to easterly this evening, gradually clocking to south-southeasterly throughout the week around 5 to 10 knots. Wave heights will remain around 1 to 2 feet through Wednesday before becoming 1 foot across the board. Each day, slight wind surges over our nearshore waters may occur as the afternoon seabreeze kicks in. Rain and thunderstorms are not expected throughout the workweek. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Generally northeasterly transport winds around 10-15 mph with high mixing heights are expected tomorrow with good to excellent dispersions area wide. The highest dispersions will be over the Suwannee Valley Tuesday afternoon. The afternoon sea breeze may cause winds to become more southerly near the coast during the afternoon and evening hours. Transport winds become more southeasterly to southerly Wednesday and Thursday with good dispersions each day. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Heavy rainfall from Friday and the weekend will lead to ongoing or developing minor flooding at several rivers over the next few days as rainfall works its way into the system. Withlacoochee River in Georgia and northern Florida is currently climbing and will likely crest sometime this week. Rises in the lower Withlacoochee will likely rise through much of the upcoming week. Rises into solid action stage in the middle and lower Suwanee Rivers are likely later this week and next weekend. Further west across the Ochlockonee basin, the river will generally hold steady or rise slowly through the week. The Apalachicola at Blountstown will approach minor flood stage today. Across the Panhandle in the Choctawhatchee Basin, rivers rises to near flood are likely through the week. Aside from increasing rivers from recent heavy rainfall, no new hydrological concerns are anticipated to develop with the area likely moving into a drier pattern for the next 5 to 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 65 88 67 91 / 0 10 0 0 Panama City 68 86 69 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 63 85 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 62 85 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 63 87 64 90 / 0 10 0 0 Cross City 62 88 65 91 / 10 10 0 0 Apalachicola 71 82 71 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ Tuesday for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181042 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:18 PM 20.May.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 110 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1008 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Increased cloud cover as low stratus continues moving westward. Models arent handling this very well but stratus should hold the next few hours before getting more breaks in the overcast. So far it hasn`t had much effect on temperatures but may need an update depending on how the clouds evolve and temperatures respond. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Light northeasterly winds will dominate today as an upper level trough moves east of the area and surface high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic states. There may be just enough low level convergence along the sea breeze this afternoon across the coastal big bend areas for an isolated shower or thunderstorm, but nothing significant is expected and most areas will stay dry. Highs will generally be in the 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Upper level ridge axis builds into the forecast area Tuesday into Wednesday while at the surface, an axis high pressure axis slowly shifts east. Dry mid-level air and easterly flow in the lower levels will lead to mostly sunny skies and warm conditions through the period. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than Monday and the warm up continues into Wednesday and beyond with widespread low 90s expected. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Ridge axis slowly translates east towards the weekend period as southwesterly and more progressive flow aloft develops. A few passing disturbances to our north will move through the westerly flow bringing perhaps a return to low rain chances by the end of the week and weekend as surface flow becomes southerly and better low-level moisture returns. In the absence of any significant systems and mostly dry conditions, we`ll see the warm up continue with temperatures nearing the mid 90s for some locations by end of the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 107 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Stratocu has lifted in most locations to just over VFR with a few spots remaining MVFR. Clouds have been hanging tough and models continue to scatter out too soon. Kept BKN 030-035 for the next few hours through around 20-21Z then begin to scatter through 00Z. Beyond 00z, a few high clouds should remain while stratocu should be dissipating. A light shower or two could occur along the seabreeze but should remain out of the aerodromes. Winds will continue from the northeast or east. && .MARINE... Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Northeast winds become easterly through Tuesday as high pressure moves by and to the north of area waters. Winds will turn to the southeast and then south through the week with southwesterly winds expected by Friday. Speeds wont reach much more than 10 knots so expect low seas of 2 to 3 feet or less through the week. Highest wind speeds generally will be in the overnight period as nocturnal surges from the Atlantic Seabreeze moves through. No rain expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Winds will remain light with relative humidity values remaining above critical levels for the next few days. Given recent rainfall, there are no major fire weather concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Heavy rainfall from Friday and the weekend will lead to ongoing or developing minor flooding at several rivers over the next few days as rainfall works its way into the system. Withlacoochee River in Georgia and northern Florida is currently climbing and will likely crest sometime this week. Rises in the lower Withlacoochee will likely rise through much of the upcoming week. Rises into solid action stage in the middle and lower Suwanee Rivers are likely later this week and next weekend. Further west across the Ochlockonee basin, the river will generally hold steady or rise slowly through the week. The Apalachicola at Blountstown will approach minor flood stage today. Across the Panhandle in the Choctawhatchee Basin, rivers rises to near flood are likely through the week. Aside from increasing rivers from recent heavy rainfall, no new hydrological concerns are anticipated to develop with the area likely moving into a drier pattern for the next 5 to 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 86 65 88 67 / 10 0 10 0 Panama City 86 69 86 69 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 84 64 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 84 64 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 84 63 87 64 / 0 0 10 0 Cross City 86 63 88 65 / 20 10 20 0 Apalachicola 82 71 82 71 / 20 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ Tuesday for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181034 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:15 PM 20.May.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1012 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1008 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Increased cloud cover as low stratus continues moving westward. Models arent handling this very well but stratus should hold the next few hours before getting more breaks in the overcast. So far it hasn`t had much effect on temperatures but may need an update depending on how the clouds evolve and temperatures respond. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Light northeasterly winds will dominate today as an upper level trough moves east of the area and surface high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic states. There may be just enough low level convergence along the sea breeze this afternoon across the coastal big bend areas for an isolated shower or thunderstorm, but nothing significant is expected and most areas will stay dry. Highs will generally be in the 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Upper level ridge axis builds into the forecast area Tuesday into Wednesday while at the surface, an axis high pressure axis slowly shifts east. Dry mid-level air and easterly flow in the lower levels will lead to mostly sunny skies and warm conditions through the period. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than Monday and the warm up continues into Wednesday and beyond with widespread low 90s expected. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Ridge axis slowly translates east towards the weekend period as southwesterly and more progressive flow aloft develops. A few passing disturbances to our north will move through the westerly flow bringing perhaps a return to low rain chances by the end of the week and weekend as surface flow becomes southerly and better low-level moisture returns. In the absence of any significant systems and mostly dry conditions, we`ll see the warm up continue with temperatures nearing the mid 90s for some locations by end of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 An area of low ceilings moving in from the northeast will affect VLD, ABY, and TLH with a few hours of MVFR to IFR ceilings this morning. Ceilings are expected to scatter and become VFR later this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the region with northeast winds mainly under 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Northeast winds become easterly through Tuesday as high pressure moves by and to the north of area waters. Winds will turn to the southeast and then south through the week with southwesterly winds expected by Friday. Speeds wont reach much more than 10 knots so expect low seas of 2 to 3 feet or less through the week. Highest wind speeds generally will be in the overnight period as nocturnal surges from the Atlantic Seabreeze moves through. No rain expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Winds will remain light with relative humidity values remaining above critical levels for the next few days. Given recent rainfall, there are no major fire weather concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Heavy rainfall from Friday and the weekend will lead to ongoing or developing minor flooding at several rivers over the next few days as rainfall works its way into the system. Withlacoochee River in Georgia and northern Florida is currently climbing and will likely crest sometime this week. Rises in the lower Withlacoochee will likely rise through much of the upcoming week. Rises into solid action stage in the middle and lower Suwanee Rivers are likely later this week and next weekend. Further west across the Ochlockonee basin, the river will generally hold steady or rise slowly through the week. The Apalachicola at Blountstown will approach minor flood stage today. Across the Panhandle in the Choctawhatchee Basin, rivers rises to near flood are likely through the week. Aside from increasing rivers from recent heavy rainfall, no new hydrological concerns are anticipated to develop with the area likely moving into a drier pattern for the next 5 to 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 86 65 88 67 / 10 0 0 0 Panama City 86 69 86 69 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 84 64 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 84 64 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 84 63 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 86 63 88 65 / 20 0 20 0 Apalachicola 82 71 82 71 / 20 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181008 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:15 AM 20.May.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 605 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Light northeasterly winds will dominate today as an upper level trough moves east of the area and surface high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic states. There may be just enough low level convergence along the sea breeze this afternoon across the coastal big bend areas for an isolated shower or thunderstorm, but nothing significant is expected and most areas will stay dry. Highs will generally be in the 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Upper level ridge axis builds into the forecast area Tuesday into Wednesday while at the surface, an axis high pressure axis slowly shifts east. Dry mid-level air and easterly flow in the lower levels will lead to mostly sunny skies and warm conditions through the period. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than Monday and the warm up continues into Wednesday and beyond with widespread low 90s expected. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Ridge axis slowly translates east towards the weekend period as southwesterly and more progressive flow aloft develops. A few passing disturbances to our north will move through the westerly flow bringing perhaps a return to low rain chances by the end of the week and weekend as surface flow becomes southerly and better low-level moisture returns. In the absence of any significant systems and mostly dry conditions, we`ll see the warm up continue with temperatures nearing the mid 90s for some locations by end of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 An area of low ceilings moving in from the northeast will affect VLD, ABY, and TLH with a few hours of MVFR to IFR ceilings this morning. Ceilings are expected to scatter and become VFR later this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the region with northeast winds mainly under 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Northeast winds become easterly through Tuesday as high pressure moves by and to the north of area waters. Winds will turn to the southeast and then south through the week with southwesterly winds expected by Friday. Speeds wont reach much more than 10 knots so expect low seas of 2 to 3 feet or less through the week. Highest wind speeds generally will be in the overnight period as nocturnal surges from the Atlantic Seabreeze moves through. No rain expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Winds will remain light with relative humidity values remaining above critical levels for the next few days. Given recent rainfall, there are no major fire weather concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Heavy rainfall from Friday and the weekend will lead to ongoing or developing minor flooding at several rivers over the next few days as rainfall works its way into the system. Withlacoochee River in Georgia and northern Florida is currently climbing and will likely crest sometime this week. Rises in the lower Withlacoochee will likely rise through much of the upcoming week. Rises into solid action stage in the middle and lower Suwanee Rivers are likely later this week and next weekend. Further west across the Ochlockonee basin, the river will generally hold steady or rise slowly through the week. The Apalachicola at Blountstown will approach minor flood stage today. Across the Panhandle in the Choctawhatchee Basin, rivers rises to near flood are likely through the week. Aside from increasing rivers from recent heavy rainfall, no new hydrological concerns are anticipated to develop with the area likely moving into a drier pattern for the next 5 to 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 86 65 88 67 / 10 0 0 0 Panama City 86 69 86 69 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 84 64 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 84 64 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 84 63 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 86 63 88 65 / 20 0 20 0 Apalachicola 82 71 82 71 / 20 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1180987 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:21 AM 20.May.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 214 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Light northeasterly winds will dominate today as an upper level trough moves east of the area and surface high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic states. There may be just enough low level convergence along the sea breeze this afternoon across the coastal big bend areas for an isolated shower or thunderstorm, but nothing significant is expected and most areas will stay dry. Highs will generally be in the 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Upper level ridge axis builds into the forecast area Tuesday into Wednesday while at the surface, an axis high pressure axis slowly shifts east. Dry mid-level air and easterly flow in the lower levels will lead to mostly sunny skies and warm conditions through the period. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than Monday and the warm up continues into Wednesday and beyond with widespread low 90s expected. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Ridge axis slowly translates east towards the weekend period as southwesterly and more progressive flow aloft develops. A few passing disturbances to our north will move through the westerly flow bringing perhaps a return to low rain chances by the end of the week and weekend as surface flow becomes southerly and better low-level moisture returns. In the absence of any significant systems and mostly dry conditions, we`ll see the warm up continue with temperatures nearing the mid 90s for some locations by end of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 134 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 An area of low ceilings moving in from the northeast could affect VLD and ABY with a few hours of MVFR ceilings this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the region with northeast winds mainly under 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Northeast winds become easterly through Tuesday as high pressure moves by and to the north of area waters. Winds will turn to the southeast and then south through the week with southwesterly winds expected by Friday. Speeds wont reach much more than 10 knots so expect low seas of 2 to 3 feet or less through the week. Highest wind speeds generally will be in the overnight period as nocturnal surges from the Atlantic Seabreeze moves through. No rain expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Winds will remain light with relative humidity values remaining above critical levels for the next few days. Given recent rainfall, there are no major fire weather concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Heavy rainfall from Friday and the weekend will lead to ongoing or developing minor flooding at several rivers over the next few days as rainfall works its way into the system. Withlacoochee River in Georgia and northern Florida is currently climbing and will likely crest sometime this week. Rises in the lower Withlacoochee will likely rise through much of the upcoming week. Rises into solid action stage in the middle and lower Suwanee Rivers are likely later this week and next weekend. Further west across the Ochlockonee basin, the river will generally hold steady or rise slowly through the week. The Apalachicola at Blountstown will approach minor flood stage today. Across the Panhandle in the Choctawhatchee Basin, rivers rises to near flood are likely through the week. Aside from increasing rivers from recent heavy rainfall, no new hydrological concerns are anticipated to develop with the area likely moving into a drier pattern for the next 5 to 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 86 65 88 67 / 10 0 0 0 Panama City 86 69 86 69 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 84 64 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 84 64 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 84 63 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 86 63 88 65 / 20 0 20 0 Apalachicola 82 71 82 71 / 20 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ early this morning for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1180984 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:48 AM 20.May.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 135 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 952 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 The forecast is in great shape, so no changes to the forecast are forthcoming. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 An upper level trough continues to exit south GA this afternoon. Some showers have started to pop up with this low and may continue into the evening before dying out after sunset. Then mainly dry conditions continue into Monday. Temps tonight generally fall into the mid 60s, and then warm into the low to mid 80s in our GA and AL counties, and in the mid to upper 80s in our FL counties. A few showers and thunderstorms may pop up in the Big Bend. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 While deep layer ridging builds in Monday night through Wednesday, the mid-level trough and an attendant shortwave are close enough on Tuesday to keep a low chance of a shower or rumble of thunder in the afternoon forecast for the far Southeast FL Big Bend. Otherwise for the remainder of the region and timeframe, dry weather is expected. Highs on Tuesday in the mid-80s to about 90 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Deep layer ridging moves southeast of the region with low to mid- level southerly flow getting underway by Thursday. Deep layer moisture will gradually increase midweek. Cannot rule out a pop-up shower or thunderstorm as the seabreeze pools limited moisture and instability on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, mainly in the FL counties, but subsidence from the ridge should limit this potential with PoPs NIL for now. Otherwise, the better chance of a shower/t-storm is late Friday and Saturday with the approach of a shortwave aloft. In fact, some models hint at a potential MCS just to our north. If this materializes, it will be watched to see if it propagates further south into our region on either Friday or Saturday. For now, PoPs are NIL on Friday with 20-30% PoPs on Saturday. Highs generally remaining in the upper 80s-lower 90s through the period. With rising heights aloft, highs gradually warm to the upper 80s-lower 90s by Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 134 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 An area of low ceilings moving in from the northeast could affect VLD and ABY with a few hours of MVFR ceilings this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the region with northeast winds mainly under 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 958 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Despite only 6-knot breezes at Buoy 42036, distant winds over the southern Gulf and western Caribbean are leading to southerly waves of 4 feet at 8 seconds. From CWF synopsis...Gentle northwest breezes this evening will clock around to the northeast on Monday as high pressure bridges down the Atlantic coastal plain and across the northeast Gulf. This pattern will favor a couple of nocturnal surges in winds both Monday night and Tuesday night. By Wednesday, winds become more southerly. Seas generally 2 to 3 feet through Monday, then decreasing to 1 to 2 feet through Friday, with the exception of higher seas up to around 3 feet in due to the nocturnal surges Monday night into Tuesday and again Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Mostly quiet and dry conditions are expected over the next few days, with the potential for high dispersions being the main fire weather concerns. Tuesday, areas east of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers may have high dispersions and on Wednesday SE AL and the W FL Panhandle. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Heavy rainfall from Friday and the weekend will lead to ongoing or developing minor flooding at several rivers over the next few days as rainfall works its way into the system. Withlacoochee River in Georgia and northern Florida is currently climbing and will likely crest sometime this week. Rises in the lower Withlacoochee will likely rise through much of the upcoming week. Rises into solid action stage in the middle and lower Suwanee Rivers are likely later this week and next weekend. Further west across the Ochlockonee basin the river will generally hold steady or rise slowly through the week. The Apalachicola at Blountstown will rise into minor flood stage by Monday. Across the Panhandle in the Choctawhatchee Basin rivers rises to near flood are likely through the week. Aside from increasing rivers from heavy rainfall, no new hydrological concerns are anticipated to develop with the area likely moving into a drier pattern for the next 5 to 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 86 65 88 67 / 10 0 0 0 Panama City 86 69 86 69 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 84 64 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 84 64 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 84 63 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 86 63 88 65 / 20 0 20 0 Apalachicola 82 71 82 71 / 20 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ early this morning for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1180969 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:09 AM 20.May.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 958 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 952 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 The forecast is in great shape, so no changes to the forecast are forthcoming. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 An upper level trough continues to exit south GA this afternoon. Some showers have started to pop up with this low and may continue into the evening before dying out after sunset. Then mainly dry conditions continue into Monday. Temps tonight generally fall into the mid 60s, and then warm into the low to mid 80s in our GA and AL counties, and in the mid to upper 80s in our FL counties. A few showers and thunderstorms may pop up in the Big Bend. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 While deep layer ridging builds in Monday night through Wednesday, the mid-level trough and an attendant shortwave are close enough on Tuesday to keep a low chance of a shower or rumble of thunder in the afternoon forecast for the far Southeast FL Big Bend. Otherwise for the remainder of the region and timeframe, dry weather is expected. Highs on Tuesday in the mid-80s to about 90 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Deep layer ridging moves southeast of the region with low to mid- level southerly flow getting underway by Thursday. Deep layer moisture will gradually increase midweek. Cannot rule out a pop-up shower or thunderstorm as the seabreeze pools limited moisture and instability on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, mainly in the FL counties, but subsidence from the ridge should limit this potential with PoPs NIL for now. Otherwise, the better chance of a shower/t-storm is late Friday and Saturday with the approach of a shortwave aloft. In fact, some models hint at a potential MCS just to our north. If this materializes, it will be watched to see if it propagates further south into our region on either Friday or Saturday. For now, PoPs are NIL on Friday with 20-30% PoPs on Saturday. Highs generally remaining in the upper 80s-lower 90s through the period. With rising heights aloft, highs gradually warm to the upper 80s-lower 90s by Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 958 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 VFR conds prevail until after midnight when low stratus spreads from NE to SW, likely impacting VLD/ABY and perhaps TLH. Have MVFR to IFR cigs at those sites as soon as 7Z before improving mid- late morning. Confidence is highest at VLD. Winds turn NE at 5-7 kts tmrw. && .MARINE... Issued at 958 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Despite only 6-knot breezes at Buoy 42036, distant winds over the southern Gulf and western Caribbean are leading to southerly waves of 4 feet at 8 seconds. From CWF synopsis...Gentle northwest breezes this evening will clock around to the northeast on Monday as high pressure bridges down the Atlantic coastal plain and across the northeast Gulf. This pattern will favor a couple of nocturnal surges in winds both Monday night and Tuesday night. By Wednesday, winds become more southerly. Seas generally 2 to 3 feet through Monday, then decreasing to 1 to 2 feet through Friday, with the exception of higher seas up to around 3 feet in due to the nocturnal surges Monday night into Tuesday and again Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Mostly quiet and dry conditions are expected over the next few days, with the potential for high dispersions being the main fire weather concerns. Tuesday, areas east of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers may have high dispersions and on Wednesday SE AL and the W FL Panhandle. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Heavy rainfall from Friday and the weekend will lead to ongoing or developing minor flooding at several rivers over the next few days as rainfall works its way into the system. Withlacoochee River in Georgia and northern Florida is currently climbing and will likely crest sometime this week. Rises in the lower Withlacoochee will likely rise through much of the upcoming week. Rises into solid action stage in the middle and lower Suwanee Rivers are likely later this week and next weekend. Further west across the Ochlockonee basin the river will generally hold steady or rise slowly through the week. The Apalachicola at Blountstown will rise into minor flood stage by Monday. Across the Panhandle in the Choctawhatchee Basin rivers rises to near flood are likely through the week. Aside from increasing rivers from heavy rainfall, no new hydrological concerns are anticipated to develop with the area likely moving into a drier pattern for the next 5 to 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 67 86 65 88 / 10 10 0 0 Panama City 68 87 68 86 / 0 10 0 0 Dothan 65 84 64 85 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 65 84 62 85 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 66 85 63 87 / 20 10 0 10 Cross City 66 86 62 88 / 20 30 10 20 Apalachicola 69 82 71 82 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ Monday for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
