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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tallahassee, FL (TAE) (Florida Panhandle) Selection: |
#1205919 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:42 PM 31.Oct.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL Issued by National Weather Service Mobile AL 339 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... && .NEAR TERM... (Through Friday) Issued at 151 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Subsidence from an upper ridge centered over eastern Florida will create a dry, unseasonably warm forecast through the rest of the week. High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with low temperatures in the low to mid 60s expected. Enough moisture is in place for patchy overnight fog formation, especially over the eastern quarter of the forecast area. A moderate southeasterly flow over northeastern Gulf will continue to bring an increased swell to area beaches from near Apalachicola westward, creating a High Risk of rip currents on area beaches through Friday before easing into the weekend. /16 && .SHORT through LONG TERMs... (Friday night through Saturday night) Issued at 151 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 The upper ridge over eastern Florida builds north along the East Coast. An upper level shortwave trough moving over the Plains will shift the upper ridge eastward, to over the northern Caribbean and along the East Coast. An uptick in moisture levels as a band of increased moisture moves over the forecast area, with precipitable h20 levels rising 1.5" or higher by Wednesday and Thursday, with bring a small chance of rain for the end of the forecast. Subsidence from the upper ridge will temper instability, keeping any rumbles very limited and confined to areas over open Gulf waters. /16 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 151 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 General VFR conditions expected through the the afternoon into tonight. Fog development is likely over the eastern quarter of the forecast area, with reduced visibilities to low end MVFR possible at KVLD. Fog should quickly mix out after sunrise, with VFR conditions expected by late morning. /16 && .MARINE... Issued at 151 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 A surface ridge stretching west over the northern Gulf coast will bring generally light to at times moderate east to southeast flow to area waters through the weekend. Seas 3 to 5 feet will decrease to 2 to 4 feet for Friday through the weekend. An increase in winds to moderate early in the coming week will increase seas to 3 to 5 feet. /16 && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 151 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Flooding is not expected for the next 7 days. /16 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 63 84 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 65 84 65 84 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 61 84 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 61 83 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 62 85 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 63 86 64 86 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 68 79 67 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
#1205889 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:18 AM 31.Oct.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1110 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1109 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 The forecast is on track, updates aren`t necessary this morning. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 High pressure north of Bermuda will continue to produce easterly flow across the area. Some drier air will move into the area along the easterly flow, which will keep rain chances close to zero. Highs will be in the middle 80s with lows in the lower 60s. Some fog will be possible across the eastern Big Bend and south central Georgia. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Mid-level ridging sets up shop right on top of us with surface high pressure generally to our north and northeast over the next several days. This spells bad news for anyone looking for rain and cooler temperatures. Temperatures will heat back up to the upper 80s going into the weekend and early next week. This is near record levels for this time of year. Lows likewise will warm back into the middle 60s area wide. Some fog will be possible each night in this pattern. A cold front approaches our area late in the period, which will bring a small chance (20-30%) of showers by Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 646 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 A somewhat moist air mass persists below 7,000 feet in low-level east-southeast flow. The 00z JAX sounding from Wed evening showed a sharp subsidence inversion near 7,000 feet, with very dry air above. Within the moister air below 7,000 feet, satellite imagery shows FEW-SCT coverage of cumulus in east- southeast flow, spreading in from the Gulf along the Panhandle coast, and from the Atlantic toward I-75 and VLD. Fair weather cumulus from daytime thermal lift is about all we will be able to muster through this evening, so a VFR forecast prevails. Late tonight, low stratus will spread inland from the Atlantic coast and will likely arrive at VLD before sunrise on Friday. ABY could possibly get the low stratus too, but confidence there is to low to include in the TAF at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 As strong high pressure near Bermuda begins to weaken, the winds and seas will begin to relax today as the pressure gradient broadens. However, with high pressure remaining generally north to northeast of the area, easterly winds around 10 to 15 knots will be common through the weekend. As is common with easterly flow, breezes will peak during the nighttime and morning hours with cautionary conditions, then diminish for the afternoon hours. Seas beyond today will remain around 2 to 4 feet over the waters for the next several days. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Southeasterly transport winds of 10-20 mph are expected today with mixing heights around 4,000-5,000 ft, leading to good dispersions today. Transport winds will become more easterly Friday and Saturday and decrease to around 10 mph. Fair to good dispersions are expected on Friday, but with an increase in mixing heights on Saturday, high dispersions are expected across the area. Minimum RH values each afternoon will generally be in the 40s. While fire weather concerns remain low, fuels continue drying across the area. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 646 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Flooding is not expected for the next 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 85 63 84 63 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 84 65 84 65 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 85 61 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 85 61 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 86 62 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 85 63 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 79 68 79 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon for GMZ750-752-755-770-772-775. && $$ |
#1205866 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 31.Oct.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 646 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 High pressure north of Bermuda will continue to produce easterly flow across the area. Some drier air will move into the area along the easterly flow, which will keep rain chances close to zero. Highs will be in the middle 80s with lows in the lower 60s. Some fog will be possible across the eastern Big Bend and south central Georgia. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Mid-level ridging sets up shop right on top of us with surface high pressure generally to our north and northeast over the next several days. This spells bad news for anyone looking for rain and cooler temperatures. Temperatures will heat back up to the upper 80s going into the weekend and early next week. This is near record levels for this time of year. Lows likewise will warm back into the middle 60s area wide. Some fog will be possible each night in this pattern. A cold front approaches our area late in the period, which will bring a small chance (20-30%) of showers by Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 646 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 A somewhat moist air mass persists below 7,000 feet in low-level east-southeast flow. The 00z JAX sounding from Wed evening showed a sharp subsidence inversion near 7,000 feet, with very dry air above. Within the moister air below 7,000 feet, satellite imagery shows FEW-SCT coverage of cumulus in east- southeast flow, spreading in from the Gulf along the Panhandle coast, and from the Atlantic toward I-75 and VLD. Fair weather cumulus from daytime thermal lift is about all we will be able to muster through this evening, so a VFR forecast prevails. Late tonight, low stratus will spread inland from the Atlantic coast and will likely arrive at VLD before sunrise on Friday. ABY could possibly get the low stratus too, but confidence there is to low to include in the TAF at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 As strong high pressure near Bermuda begins to weaken, the winds and seas will begin to relax today as the pressure gradient broadens. However, with high pressure remaining generally north to northeast of the area, easterly winds around 10 to 15 knots will be common through the weekend. As is common with easterly flow, breezes will peak during the nighttime and morning hours with cautionary conditions, then diminish for the afternoon hours. Seas beyond today will remain around 2 to 4 feet over the waters for the next several days. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Southeasterly transport winds of 10-20 mph are expected today with mixing heights around 4,000-5,000 ft, leading to good dispersions today. Transport winds will become more easterly Friday and Saturday and decrease to around 10 mph. Fair to good dispersions are expected on Friday, but with an increase in mixing heights on Saturday, high dispersions are expected across the area. Minimum RH values each afternoon will generally be in the 40s. While fire weather concerns remain low, fuels continue drying across the area. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 646 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Flooding is not expected for the next 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 85 63 84 63 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 84 65 84 65 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 85 61 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 85 61 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 86 62 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 85 63 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 79 68 79 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon for GMZ750-752-755-770-772-775. && $$ |
#1205846 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:21 AM 31.Oct.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 311 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 High pressure north of Bermuda will continue to produce easterly flow across the area. Some drier air will move into the area along the easterly flow, which will keep rain chances close to zero. Highs will be in the middle 80s with lows in the lower 60s. Some fog will be possible across the eastern Big Bend and south central Georgia. && .SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Mid-level ridging sets up shop right on top of us with surface high pressure generally to our north and northeast over the next several days. This spells bad news for anyone looking for rain and cooler temperatures. Temperatures will heat back up to the upper 80s going into the weekend and early next week. This is near record levels for this time of year. Lows likewise will warm back into the middle 60s area wide. Some fog will be possible each night in this pattern. A cold front approaches our area late in the period, which will bring a small chance (20-30%) of showers by Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 140 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 A somewhat moist air mass persists below 7,000 feet. The 00z JAX sounding showed a sharp subsidence inversion near 7,000 feet, with very dry air above. Within the moister air below 7,000 feet, satellite imagery shows FEW-SCT coverage of cumulus in east- southeast flow, spreading in from the Gulf along the Panhandle coast, and from the Atlantic toward I-75 and VLD. Fair weather cumulus is about all we will be able to muster through Thursday evening, so a VFR forecast prevails. && .MARINE... Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 As strong high pressure near Bermuda begins to weaken, the winds and seas will begin to relax today as the pressure gradient broadens. However, with high pressure remaining generally north to northeast of the area, easterly winds around 10 to 15 knots will be common through the weekend. As is common with easterly flow, breezes will peak during the nighttime and morning hours with cautionary conditions, then diminish for the afternoon hours. Seas beyond today will remain around 2 to 4 feet over the waters for the next several days. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Southeasterly transport winds of 10-20 mph are expected today with mixing heights around 4,000-5,000 ft, leading to good dispersions today. Transport winds will become more easterly Friday and Saturday and decrease to around 10 mph. Fair to good dispersions are expected on Friday, but with an increase in mixing heights on Saturday, high dispersions are expected across the area. Minimum RH values each afternoon will generally be in the 40s. While fire weather concerns remain low, fuels continue drying across the area. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Flooding is not expected for the next 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 85 63 84 63 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 84 65 84 65 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 85 61 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 85 61 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 86 62 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 85 63 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 79 68 79 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon for GMZ750-752-755-770-772-775. && $$ |
#1205833 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 AM 31.Oct.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 140 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 924 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 The forecast is on track with no changes from the discussion below. && .DISCUSSION (Near, Short, Long Term)... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1237 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Mid level ridging is more or less expected to prevail over the region through the next week, keeping dry and warm conditions in place over the area. Surface high pressure to the north/northeast will keep easterly to southeasterly surface winds in place. A few weak surface troughs rotating along the base of the high may create some instances of breezier winds, particularly over the waters at night. Overall expect abnormally warm and dry conditions to continue through the next week with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and low temperatures in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 140 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 A somewhat moist air mass persists below 7,000 feet. The 00z JAX sounding showed a sharp subsidence inversion near 7,000 feet, with very dry air above. Within the moister air below 7,000 feet, satellite imagery shows FEW-SCT coverage of cumulus in east- southeast flow, spreading in from the Gulf along the Panhandle coast, and from the Atlantic toward I-75 and VLD. Fair weather cumulus is about all we will be able to muster through Thursday evening, so a VFR forecast prevails. && .MARINE... Issued at 1237 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Strong surface high pressure will persist north of Bermuda through Thursday, maintaining fresh to occasionally strong easterly breezes across the waters. A temporary weakening of the high on Friday will come with a relative lull in the easterly flow from Thursday night through Saturday morning. The high will re- strengthen this weekend. As is common with easterly flow, breezes will peak during the nighttime and morning hours, then diminish for the afternoon hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1237 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Strong high pressure aloft will persist through this weekend, keeping temperatures above normal while preventing any wetting rain. Any isolated light showers this afternoon will only drop a few hundredths of an inch of rain, at most. Easterly surface winds will continue due to strong surface high pressure north of Bermuda, with Friday featuring a relative lull in the easterly flow. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Flooding is not expected for the next 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 84 63 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 83 66 84 65 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 84 62 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 84 61 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 85 62 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 85 63 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 78 68 79 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon for GMZ750-752-755-770-772-775. && $$ |