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| #1273944 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:00 AM 31.Jul.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 953 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 952 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 - A wet period of weather is on tap this weekend into midweek. Most likely rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected with isolated amounts of 6 to 8 inches, mainly in the FL Big Bend counties. These amounts over a short period may lead to isolated flash flooding as well as rises on small river systems. && .UPDATE... Issued at 952 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 The previous forecast is on track, and no major updates were made. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 225 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 A stalled front across Alabama and Georgia will lift northward as an approaching shortwave develops ahead of a low-pressure system in the upper midwest. All this to say that rain/thunderstorm chances will be in the forecast today as moisture will be able slide on through. Showers and thunderstorms will be most concentrated along the Dothan to Cross City line, with lesser values to the northeast in Georgia. PoPs range from 60-80 percent in FL/AL with 20-50% PoPs in Georgia. The WPC has highlighted all of the region except portions of central GA in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall as we have forecast PWATs up to 2.25" in the region. The environment will be unstable with CAPE values above 1000 J/Kg, modest lapse rates, and DCAPE values above 1100 J/Kg. There will be a dry layer in the mid-levels that we will be working with which may limit storm development. There is also the matter that temperatures today will be in the low 90s with heat indices nearing advisory levels in the FL Panhandle and Big Bend. Decided to forego an Advisory due to the expected convection which should bring values down but be mindful of the hot temperatures. Showers and thunderstorms should begin to diminish during the evening hours and be closer to the coast with overnight temperatures in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 225 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 This weekend, an upper level trough will sink south towards the Gulf states bringing an expectant abundance of rain and thunderstorms. A cold front will slowly approach the SE U.S. pulling in moisture from the Gulf with southwest flow. PWATs are forecast to be up to 2.5" throughout the region, which would lead to heavy rainfall. Environmental parameters at this time do not appear conducive for strong/severe storms to develop for the weekend, however heavy rainfall looks to be the primary threat. The WPC does have portions the CWA highlighted in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Saturday through Monday, as the trough lifts next week. Through the course of the Long Term, the area may receive 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts of 6-8 inches. Rain chances gradually drop off Wednesday through the rest of the week. Temperatures for the long term will be cooler with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s as the rain and cloud cover will keep the temps from rising. Overnight lows will be stable in the low-mid 70s. Afternoon highs will begin warming back to the mid 90s by midweek after the rain moves out. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Convection is ongoing across southern Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. Lightning has been reported within 10nm of ECP and have added VCTS for the next several hours. Removed mention of MVFR conds as well with area observations reporting VFR. Otherwise, additional convection will develop this morning into the evening hours, favoring ECP/TLH/DHN where maintained tempo TSRA. At ABY/VLD, continued PROB30 TSRA later this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected each day, with some storms capable of strong wind gusts and frequent lightning. Mainly westerly and southwesterly flow can be expected this weekend with wind speeds around 15-20 kts as we approach Sunday with seas of 3-5 feet, Advisory level winds may be possible. By Tuesday, winds calm down to around 10 kts as the pressure gradient decreases from the nearby trough with seas around 2-3 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 225 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Widespread wetting rainfall is expected today through the start of next week. Some storms may produce heavy downpours. Afternoon dispersions will be fair for the next few days with mixing heights remaining below 5000 feet for most of the weekend. In the case of storms, gusty and erratic winds will be of concern, along with frequent lightning. A low-end fire concern may be possible this weekend over our Alabama and Georgia districts depending on how far south the frontal boundary stalls, allowing drier air into the region. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 225 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Showers and thunderstorms will be able to produce copious amounts of rainfall over the next several days. Widespread 2-4 inches is expected with localized higher amounts up to 6-8 inches will be possible. The WPC has highlighted most of the region in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk for Excessive rainfall through Tuesday. Heavy downpours could lead to nuisance and potential flash flooding, especially if storms are slow-moving or training. Our rivers are in good shape at the moment and not expecting any riverine flooding, but we will be watching our smaller rivers for any rises in the coming days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 93 75 86 73 / 70 50 90 50 Panama City 90 77 87 77 / 50 70 90 70 Dothan 93 74 87 73 / 50 40 90 70 Albany 94 74 88 73 / 30 30 80 60 Valdosta 95 73 91 72 / 40 30 80 50 Cross City 92 74 89 73 / 50 80 90 80 Apalachicola 89 77 85 78 / 70 70 90 60 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1273930 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 AM 31.Jul.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 615 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 610 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 - A wet period of weather is on tap this weekend into midweek. Most likely rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected with isolated amounts of 6 to 8 inches, mainly in the FL Big Bend counties. These amounts over a short period may lead to isolated flash flooding as well as rises on small river systems. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 225 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 A stalled front across Alabama and Georgia will lift northward as an approaching shortwave develops ahead of a low-pressure system in the upper midwest. All this to say that rain/thunderstorm chances will be in the forecast today as moisture will be able slide on through. Showers and thunderstorms will be most concentrated along the Dothan to Cross City line, with lesser values to the northeast in Georgia. PoPs range from 60-80 percent in FL/AL with 20-50% PoPs in Georgia. The WPC has highlighted all of the region except portions of central GA in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall as we have forecast PWATs up to 2.25" in the region. The environment will be unstable with CAPE values above 1000 J/Kg, modest lapse rates, and DCAPE values above 1100 J/Kg. There will be a dry layer in the mid-levels that we will be working with which may limit storm development. There is also the matter that temperatures today will be in the low 90s with heat indices nearing advisory levels in the FL Panhandle and Big Bend. Decided to forego an Advisory due to the expected convection which should bring values down but be mindful of the hot temperatures. Showers and thunderstorms should begin to diminish during the evening hours and be closer to the coast with overnight temperatures in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 225 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 This weekend, an upper level trough will sink south towards the Gulf states bringing an expectant abundance of rain and thunderstorms. A cold front will slowly approach the SE U.S. pulling in moisture from the Gulf with southwest flow. PWATs are forecast to be up to 2.5" throughout the region, which would lead to heavy rainfall. Environmental parameters at this time do not appear conducive for strong/severe storms to develop for the weekend, however heavy rainfall looks to be the primary threat. The WPC does have portions the CWA highlighted in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Saturday through Monday, as the trough lifts next week. Through the course of the Long Term, the area may receive 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts of 6-8 inches. Rain chances gradually drop off Wednesday through the rest of the week. Temperatures for the long term will be cooler with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s as the rain and cloud cover will keep the temps from rising. Overnight lows will be stable in the low-mid 70s. Afternoon highs will begin warming back to the mid 90s by midweek after the rain moves out. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Convection is ongoing across southern Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. Lightning has been reported within 10nm of ECP and have added VCTS for the next several hours. Removed mention of MVFR conds as well with area observations reporting VFR. Otherwise, additional convection will develop this morning into the evening hours, favoring ECP/TLH/DHN where maintained tempo TSRA. At ABY/VLD, continued PROB30 TSRA later this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected each day, with some storms capable of strong wind gusts and frequent lightning. Mainly westerly and southwesterly flow can be expected this weekend with wind speeds around 15-20 kts as we approach Sunday with seas of 3-5 feet, Advisory level winds may be possible. By Tuesday, winds calm down to around 10 kts as the pressure gradient decreases from the nearby trough with seas around 2-3 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 225 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Widespread wetting rainfall is expected today through the start of next week. Some storms may produce heavy downpours. Afternoon dispersions will be fair for the next few days with mixing heights remaining below 5000 feet for most of the weekend. In the case of storms, gusty and erratic winds will be of concern, along with frequent lightning. A low-end fire concern may be possible this weekend over our Alabama and Georgia districts depending on how far south the frontal boundary stalls, allowing drier air into the region. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 225 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Showers and thunderstorms will be able to produce copious amounts of rainfall over the next several days. Widespread 2-4 inches is expected with localized higher amounts up to 6-8 inches will be possible. The WPC has highlighted most of the region in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk for Excessive rainfall through Tuesday. Heavy downpours could lead to nuisance and potential flash flooding, especially if storms are slow-moving or training. Our rivers are in good shape at the moment and not expecting any riverine flooding, but we will be watching our smaller rivers for any rises in the coming days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 93 75 86 73 / 70 50 90 50 Panama City 90 77 87 77 / 50 70 90 70 Dothan 93 74 87 73 / 50 40 90 70 Albany 94 74 88 73 / 30 30 80 60 Valdosta 95 73 91 72 / 40 30 80 50 Cross City 92 74 89 73 / 50 80 90 80 Apalachicola 89 77 85 78 / 70 70 90 60 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1273918 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:42 AM 31.Jul.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 227 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 225 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 - A wet period of weather is on tap this weekend into midweek. Most likely rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected with isolated amounts of 6 to 8 inches, mainly in the FL Big Bend counties. These amounts over a short period may lead to isolated flash flooding as well as rises on small river systems. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 225 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 A stalled front across Alabama and Georgia will lift northward as an approaching shortwave develops ahead of a low-pressure system in the upper midwest. All this to say that rain/thunderstorm chances will be in the forecast today as moisture will be able slide on through. Showers and thunderstorms will be most concentrated along the Dothan to Cross City line, with lesser values to the northeast in Georgia. PoPs range from 60-80 percent in FL/AL with 20-50% PoPs in Georgia. The WPC has highlighted all of the region except portions of central GA in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall as we have forecast PWATs up to 2.25" in the region. The environment will be unstable with CAPE values above 1000 J/Kg, modest lapse rates, and DCAPE values above 1100 J/Kg. There will be a dry layer in the mid-levels that we will be working with which may limit storm development. There is also the matter that temperatures today will be in the low 90s with heat indices nearing advisory levels in the FL Panhandle and Big Bend. Decided to forego an Advisory due to the expected convection which should bring values down but be mindful of the hot temperatures. Showers and thunderstorms should begin to diminish during the evening hours and be closer to the coast with overnight temperatures in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 225 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 This weekend, an upper level trough will sink south towards the Gulf states bringing an expectant abundance of rain and thunderstorms. A cold front will slowly approach the SE U.S. pulling in moisture from the Gulf with southwest flow. PWATs are forecast to be up to 2.5" throughout the region, which would lead to heavy rainfall. Environmental parameters at this time do not appear conducive for strong/severe storms to develop for the weekend, however heavy rainfall looks to be the primary threat. The WPC does have portions the CWA highlighted in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Saturday through Monday, as the trough lifts next week. Through the course of the Long Term, the area may receive 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts of 6-8 inches. Rain chances gradually drop off Wednesday through the rest of the week. Temperatures for the long term will be cooler with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s as the rain and cloud cover will keep the temps from rising. Overnight lows will be stable in the low-mid 70s. Afternoon highs will begin warming back to the mid 90s by midweek after the rain moves out. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 127 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Generally VFR overnight though brief periods of MVFR may occur around dawn at DHN/ABY/VLD. Highest chance for TSRA on station Friday afternoon will be from ECP/TLH/DHN and have added tempo groups while ABY/VLD kept PROB30 TSRA where confidence not quite as high. Periods of MVFR cig/vsbys would accompany heavier convection as well as gusty winds. Winds will generally be from the west except gusty/variable winds underneath and around stronger storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected each day, with some storms capable of strong wind gusts and frequent lightning. Mainly westerly and southwesterly flow can be expected this weekend with wind speeds around 15-20 kts as we approach Sunday with seas of 3-5 feet, Advisory level winds may be possible. By Tuesday, winds calm down to around 10 kts as the pressure gradient decreases from the nearby trough with seas around 2-3 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 225 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Widespread wetting rainfall is expected today through the start of next week. Some storms may produce heavy downpours. Afternoon dispersions will be fair for the next few days with mixing heights remaining below 5000 feet for most of the weekend. In the case of storms, gusty and erratic winds will be of concern, along with frequent lightning. A low-end fire concern may be possible this weekend over our Alabama and Georgia districts depending on how far south the frontal boundary stalls, allowing drier air into the region. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 225 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Showers and thunderstorms will be able to produce copious amounts of rainfall over the next several days. Widespread 2-4 inches is expected with localized higher amounts up to 6-8 inches will be possible. The WPC has highlighted most of the region in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk for Excessive rainfall through Tuesday. Heavy downpours could lead to nuisance and potential flash flooding, especially if storms are slow-moving or training. Our rivers are in good shape at the moment and not expecting any riverine flooding, but we will be watching our smaller rivers for any rises in the coming days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 93 75 86 73 / 70 50 90 50 Panama City 90 77 87 77 / 50 70 90 70 Dothan 93 74 87 73 / 50 40 90 70 Albany 94 74 88 73 / 30 30 80 60 Valdosta 95 73 91 72 / 40 30 80 50 Cross City 92 74 89 73 / 50 80 90 80 Apalachicola 89 77 85 78 / 70 70 90 60 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1273908 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 AM 31.Jul.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 131 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 127 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 - Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms earlier today have diminished this evening. - A wet period of weather is on tap this weekend into midweek. Most likely rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected with isolated amounts of 6 to 8 inches, mainly in the FL Big Bend counties. These amounts over a short period may lead to isolated flash flooding as well as rises on small river systems. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Friday) Issued at 316 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026 A weak stationary boundary remains draped across central Alabama and Georgia this afternoon. Being south of this boundary, we remain very warm and humid with dewpoints in the mid 70s to low 80s. This will provide ample instability for scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon into early this evening. The difference between today and yesterday is that we have less shear to work with today. So, storms will more likely be of the pulse-variety rather than organized clusters or lines. Still, a Marginal Risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5) continues for today for the majority of our area for the threat of localized damaging downbursts. These storms should slowly fade after sunset, but some storms may linger in the southeast Big Bend and offshore through the night. Lows will be in the mid to upper 70s. For Friday, the front begins to lift northward ahead of an approaching shortwave and developing low pressure system over the upper/mid Mississippi Valley. The front will likely bisect our area across southwest Georgia. This will lead to higher rain chances in our Alabama and Florida Counties (60-80%) vs our Georgia Counties (20-50%). Storms that develop tomorrow will also be in a highly unstable atmosphere, but will also have dry air aloft to work with, yielding DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg. Thus, wouldn`t be surprised if SPC introduces a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for at least part of the area. We`ll also need to see if we need a Heat Advisory for some areas on Friday afternoon. The latest forecast is rather marginal with some pockets of 108-110 heat index in the Florida counties, but the wrench is all this is the coverage and timing of convective development. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 316 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026 The next approaching system will move into the Southeast this weekend, but the associated front will slow down as it approaches our area thanks to the shortwave weakening. This sets up a deep southwesterly flow regime across our area, bringing tropical moisture over the weekend. PWATs surge to 2.2 to 2.5 inches across the area, which will increase our threat of heavy rainfall. Given a more SW-NE orientation and flow largely paralleling the boundary, the potential for training storms is there over the weekend with the threat of potential flash flooding. Right now, it appears the threat of strong/severe storms is lower than recent days, mostly thanks to the lack of dry air and mostly weak flow. This pattern continues through at least Monday before the trough and front weaken and drier air moves in. Most likely rainfall totals are around 2 to 4 inches through Tuesday with localized amounts of 6 to 8 inches possible. The good news with the rain is that we will have some cooler air in place with highs back in the mid 80s and lows in the 70s. Beyond Tuesday, we will dry back out as drier air filters back in. Temperatures will also increase mid week back into the low to mid 90s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 127 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Generally VFR overnight though brief periods of MVFR may occur around dawn at DHN/ABY/VLD. Highest chance for TSRA on station Friday afternoon will be from ECP/TLH/DHN and have added tempo groups while ABY/VLD kept PROB30 TSRA where confidence not quite as high. Periods of MVFR cig/vsbys would accompany heavier convection as well as gusty winds. Winds will generally be from the west except gusty/variable winds underneath and around stronger storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 316 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day, potentially producing strong wind gusts. This is most likely over the open waters in the overnight and morning hours, then near shore and over the bays during the afternoon hours. Coverage of showers and storms will increase over the weekend. Gentle to moderate westerly flow will become southwesterly and increase this weekend ahead of an approaching front. Cautionary to advisory level winds are possible and seas will also build to around 4 feet in response. Winds will subside by the middle of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026 A wetter pattern is likely to develop through the end of the week and into the weekend, keeping fire concerns limited as a frontal system drops south. Probabilities for a wetting rain over the next 5 to 7 days remain very high. Main items to watch for will be gusty and erratic winds near any thunderstorm activity, especially today and again on Friday. Westerly transport winds will be in place for today and Friday with the seabreeze making inland progress both days. The only thing to watch into the weekend will be where the frontal boundary stalls out. If it stalls out further to the south, some low end fire concerns could remain across our Alabama and Georgia counties. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 316 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026 Locally heavy rainfall is possible through the next couple days with any of the pop up thunderstorms. However, over the weekend, a pattern favoring heavy rainfall in the Big Bend sets up with a slowing frontal boundary and deep tropical moisture flowing from the southwest along and ahead of this boundary. Currently, most likely rainfall forecasts are around 2-4 inches of rain, mostly this weekend into early next week. Reasonable high-end totals of 6 to 8 inches are possible (10% chance of exceedance). This could lead to a potential for flash flooding this weekend, especially if storms train and/or move slowly. There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) for the Florida Big Bend over the weekend into early next week. Rivers are in good shape right now, but we`ll have to watch the smaller rivers in the Big Bend this weekend for any potential rises if heavy rainfall occurs. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 74 87 73 84 / 70 100 50 100 Panama City 76 87 76 85 / 80 90 70 100 Dothan 73 87 73 86 / 50 90 60 90 Albany 73 89 72 86 / 30 90 60 100 Valdosta 73 91 72 87 / 40 90 50 90 Cross City 73 89 73 86 / 80 80 80 90 Apalachicola 77 85 77 84 / 80 90 60 100 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ early this morning for FLZ114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
