Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 199530 Years of Hurricanes Without the Hype - Since 1995
90L likely to form into a depression or storm today. Bermuda should watch it closely.
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tallahassee, FL (TAE) (Florida Panhandle) Selection: |
| #1242562 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 AM 23.Aug.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 625 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 201 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 The slow moving cold front will continue to sag through our AL and GA counties. Another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall as PWATs remain above 2 inches. Training and back building will be likely for developing storms that will contribute to the risk for flooding. The WPC has highlighted areas along and east of the Tift/Apalachicola rivers in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Conditions today are very similar to yesterday, explaining why the Slight risk was expanded to cover for the wider extent of possible flash flooding. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected with isolated heavier totals to near 7 inches. The Flood Watch has been extended through tonight and expanded to include Georgia counties south to the Florida state line. PoPs today range from 60-80 percent, with the highest chances along the I-10/I- 75 corridors. Due to the rain and cloud cover, temperatures this afternoon will be cooler with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows tonight will be in the low 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 201 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 The quasi-stationary front lingers across north Florida on Sunday, continuing to provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms. The overnight and early morning land breeze may initially nudge the front offshore before it retreats onshore with the afternoon sea breeze. Some slightly drier air filters into areas along and west of the Flint River, where PWATs drop into the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range, but the deep moisture remains generally along the Forgotten Coast into the eastern Big Bend with PWATs around 2 to 2.1 inches. Thus, the highest rain chances (50-70%) will be along and south of I-10 Sunday with lower chances farther north and west (30-40%). Given the high moisture content near the coast, there is still the lingering threat of locally heavy rainfall, but the overall threat should be lower than today and Friday. This is also supported by the fact that the low-mid level flow will be less parallel to the front and slightly stronger as compared to previous days. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the low to mid 70s. By Monday, troughing digs a bit more over the eastern US, which will swing a cold front through the area by Tuesday morning. Prior to the more significant cold front, our quasi-stationary front will sag a bit further south, allowing slightly drier air to move in. In fact, PWATs across our northern counties by Monday afternoon will be around 1.2 to 1.4 inches, with PWATs of 1.5 to 1.7 inches across the Florida counties. Rain chances will be reduced Monday afternoon with near 0% chance for rain north and west of the Flint River to only 30- 40% south of I-10. This will allow temperatures to heat up a bit more with highs in the lower half of the 90s. But, pleasant temperatures are on the way with lows Monday night dropping into the mid to upper 60s for most of the area, except lower 70s near the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 201 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 For those looking for some drier, cooler air, it`s on the way. A reprieve from summer arrives for mid week as the stronger cold front exits our area Tuesday morning. Much drier air arrives in its wake. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the mid 80s to near 90. Dew points both afternoons will bottom out in the upper 50s to lower 60s thanks to efficient mixing in the dry environment. Heat index values as a result will be very close to the actual air temperatures. Rain chances will be confined to Dixie County at only 20-30%, but even that may be generous. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday nights will be in the 60s for most places. Moisture begins to increase again heading into the end of the week as the cold front tries to retreat northward, bringing an increase in rain chances back to the forecast. High temperatures will still be in the mid to upper 80s though with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Patchy dense fog is affecting the DHN terminal this morning with patchy fog spread out affecting ABY and VLD terminals. IFR to LIFR cigs are possible at the beginning of this TAF period for DHN, ABY, and VLD. For our Florida terminals, scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing. The thunderstorm activity is expected to continue along the coastal regions through the rest of the morning hours and move further inland this afternoon into the evening. The fog this morning is expected to dissipate by mid-late morning, making room for the showers and thunderstorms that will move in, especially for ABY and VLD terminals. MVFR cigs are expected for all terminals through this evening as widespread showers and thunderstorms move through the region. && .MARINE... Issued at 201 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Generally light to gentle westerly breezes will continue through the weekend as a stationary front sits over the land areas. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this weekend, especially during the nighttime and morning hours. As a stronger cold front moves through on Monday into Tuesday, winds will clock around out of the northwest to northeast and become moderate at times over the open Gulf waters. Cautionary-level winds cannot be ruled out over the western waters by Tuesday and Wednesday with seas building to 2 to 3 feet. Rain chances decrease for mid-week over the waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 201 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through this weekend. Poor dispersions are likely today for most area districts due to cloud cover and rain-cooled air. The cold front is expected to complete its passage by Monday, allowing drier air to move in through next week. Expect drier conditions next week along with potentially high dispersions. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 201 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 The locally heavy rain threat continues this weekend as a quasi- stationary boundary wavers over the area. Pockets of heavy rain fell Friday afternoon and evening across parts of southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia primarily. Given the recent wet conditions, flash flood guidance values have diminished to about 2 to 2.5 inches within 1 hour or around 3 to 4 inches within 3 hours across the Alabama and Georgia Counties. HREF probabilities of more than 3 inches of rainfall are highest along and east of the Flint River today in south central Georgia (60-80%) with even some low to medium chances of 5 inches or more. Thus, the Flood Watch was expanded to include much of our south central Georgia Counties today. The heavy rain threat on Sunday becomes more confined to the Florida counties, but with higher flash flood guidance values, these areas are not as vulnerable to flooding. With the heavy rainfall over our Georgia counties the last couple days, some of the rivers are beginning to rise. Namely, this is the upper Ochlockonee River near Thomasville and the Withlacoochee River above Valdosta. Both of these are forecast to rise into action stage, but chances for minor flooding are very low. Farther north, many of the Georgia rivers can take the extra rainfall and remain below flood stage. However, some of the smaller creeks and streams could reach bankfull should heavy rainfall fall over the smaller basins. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 86 73 89 72 / 80 30 50 10 Panama City 88 75 90 76 / 70 40 50 20 Dothan 86 71 89 71 / 70 20 30 10 Albany 85 71 88 71 / 80 30 40 10 Valdosta 86 72 88 72 / 90 40 50 10 Cross City 88 74 89 74 / 90 50 70 30 Apalachicola 87 76 88 76 / 70 40 60 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ125>131-145>148-157>161. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1242546 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 AM 23.Aug.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 205 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 201 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 The slow moving cold front will continue to sag through our AL and GA counties. Another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall as PWATs remain above 2 inches. Training and back building will be likely for developing storms that will contribute to the risk for flooding. The WPC has highlighted areas along and east of the Tift/Apalachicola rivers in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Conditions today are very similar to yesterday, explaining why the Slight risk was expanded to cover for the wider extent of possible flash flooding. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected with isolated heavier totals to near 7 inches. The Flood Watch has been extended through tonight and expanded to include Georgia counties south to the Florida state line. PoPs today range from 60-80 percent, with the highest chances along the I-10/I- 75 corridors. Due to the rain and cloud cover, temperatures this afternoon will be cooler with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows tonight will be in the low 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 201 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 The quasi-stationary front lingers across north Florida on Sunday, continuing to provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms. The overnight and early morning land breeze may initially nudge the front offshore before it retreats onshore with the afternoon sea breeze. Some slightly drier air filters into areas along and west of the Flint River, where PWATs drop into the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range, but the deep moisture remains generally along the Forgotten Coast into the eastern Big Bend with PWATs around 2 to 2.1 inches. Thus, the highest rain chances (50-70%) will be along and south of I-10 Sunday with lower chances farther north and west (30-40%). Given the high moisture content near the coast, there is still the lingering threat of locally heavy rainfall, but the overall threat should be lower than today and Friday. This is also supported by the fact that the low-mid level flow will be less parallel to the front and slightly stronger as compared to previous days. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the low to mid 70s. By Monday, troughing digs a bit more over the eastern US, which will swing a cold front through the area by Tuesday morning. Prior to the more significant cold front, our quasi-stationary front will sag a bit further south, allowing slightly drier air to move in. In fact, PWATs across our northern counties by Monday afternoon will be around 1.2 to 1.4 inches, with PWATs of 1.5 to 1.7 inches across the Florida counties. Rain chances will be reduced Monday afternoon with near 0% chance for rain north and west of the Flint River to only 30- 40% south of I-10. This will allow temperatures to heat up a bit more with highs in the lower half of the 90s. But, pleasant temperatures are on the way with lows Monday night dropping into the mid to upper 60s for most of the area, except lower 70s near the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 201 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 For those looking for some drier, cooler air, it`s on the way. A reprieve from summer arrives for mid week as the stronger cold front exits our area Tuesday morning. Much drier air arrives in its wake. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the mid 80s to near 90. Dew points both afternoons will bottom out in the upper 50s to lower 60s thanks to efficient mixing in the dry environment. Heat index values as a result will be very close to the actual air temperatures. Rain chances will be confined to Dixie County at only 20-30%, but even that may be generous. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday nights will be in the 60s for most places. Moisture begins to increase again heading into the end of the week as the cold front tries to retreat northward, bringing an increase in rain chances back to the forecast. High temperatures will still be in the mid to upper 80s though with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 201 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Low cigs this morning affecting DHN, ABY, and VLD terminals. Patchy fog is possible in areas around all terminals this morning until around 14z. The low ceilings may extend toward TLH, but confidence is low, hence the SCT for this morning. By mid morning, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be moving into our southern terminals as the cloud deck slowly lifts from our northern terminals. More showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are expected to affect our Georgia terminals later this afternoon and evening which will likely keep MVFR cigs through the rest of the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 201 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Generally light to gentle westerly breezes will continue through the weekend as a stationary front sits over the land areas. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this weekend, especially during the nighttime and morning hours. As a stronger cold front moves through on Monday into Tuesday, winds will clock around out of the northwest to northeast and become moderate at times over the open Gulf waters. Cautionary-level winds cannot be ruled out over the western waters by Tuesday and Wednesday with seas building to 2 to 3 feet. Rain chances decrease for mid-week over the waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 201 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through this weekend. Poor dispersions are likely today for most area districts due to cloud cover and rain-cooled air. The cold front is expected to complete its passage by Monday, allowing drier air to move in through next week. Expect drier conditions next week along with potentially high dispersions. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 201 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 The locally heavy rain threat continues this weekend as a quasi- stationary boundary wavers over the area. Pockets of heavy rain fell Friday afternoon and evening across parts of southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia primarily. Given the recent wet conditions, flash flood guidance values have diminished to about 2 to 2.5 inches within 1 hour or around 3 to 4 inches within 3 hours across the Alabama and Georgia Counties. HREF probabilities of more than 3 inches of rainfall are highest along and east of the Flint River today in south central Georgia (60-80%) with even some low to medium chances of 5 inches or more. Thus, the Flood Watch was expanded to include much of our south central Georgia Counties today. The heavy rain threat on Sunday becomes more confined to the Florida counties, but with higher flash flood guidance values, these areas are not as vulnerable to flooding. With the heavy rainfall over our Georgia counties the last couple days, some of the rivers are beginning to rise. Namely, this is the upper Ochlockonee River near Thomasville and the Withlacoochee River above Valdosta. Both of these are forecast to rise into action stage, but chances for minor flooding are very low. Farther north, many of the Georgia rivers can take the extra rainfall and remain below flood stage. However, some of the smaller creeks and streams could reach bankfull should heavy rainfall fall over the smaller basins. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 86 73 89 72 / 80 30 50 10 Panama City 88 75 90 76 / 70 40 50 20 Dothan 86 71 89 71 / 70 20 30 10 Albany 85 71 88 71 / 80 30 40 10 Valdosta 86 72 88 72 / 90 40 50 10 Cross City 88 74 89 74 / 90 50 70 30 Apalachicola 87 76 88 76 / 70 40 60 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ125>131-145>148-157>161. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
