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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tampa Bay - Ruskin, FL (West Central Florida) Selection: |
| #1278819 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 PM 14.Sep.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 131 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 120 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will continue to be the primary concerns with storms that develop. - Gusty northeast winds will produce hazardous marine conditions by mid-week across eastern Gulf waters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 A few showers continue to develop along the coast this afternoon. With plenty of moisture in place (this morning`s sounding logged a 2.4" PWAT), storm coverage will expand inland along converging sea breeze and outflow boundaries. Later in the evening showers and storms could drift back towards the west coast. Main hazards today will be heavy downpours leading to localized flooding, frequent lightning, and strong gusty winds. Quiet conditions return overnight. For Tuesday, the upper level ridge shifts a little further north which will reinforce a more easterly flow over the area. This will mean convection developing inland in the afternoon tomorrow, then moving towards the west coast later in the evening. By Wednesday dry air aloft and at the surface will move over most of FL ahead of an approaching upper level low, limiting rain chances, especially north of I4. The pressure gradient will also begin to tighten up between the upper level ridge and upper level low, increasing the NE winds. In fact with the lower dew points, and breezy northeast winds, conditions will feel slightly less summerlike Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning. However, the slight hint at fall quickly fades back into summer like conditions by the end of the week as the upper level low continues west into the Gulf, wrapping moisture back over the area by the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 120 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 VFR conditions expected through the period with the only exception being showers and storms that develop and move near or over terminals. Passing showers/storms could drop ceilings and visibilities below VFR for a short period of time. Storms that develop inland this afternoon have the potential to drift back towards the coast later this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 120 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Main marine hazards to begin the week will be storms that develop or move over the waters. However, by mid week, marine conditions deteriorate as the pressure gradient tightens, increasing the NE winds, likely to advisory levels through early Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 120 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Fire weather concerns remain low through the period as plenty of moisture lingers over the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 77 90 77 89 / 30 60 30 20 FMY 76 92 76 91 / 50 50 30 60 GIF 75 91 75 90 / 40 60 20 30 SRQ 76 93 76 92 / 30 60 30 40 BKV 73 92 74 90 / 30 60 20 10 SPG 78 91 78 91 / 20 60 30 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 1 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1278794 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:06 AM 14.Sep.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 300 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 256 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into early next week. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will continue to be the primary concerns with storms that do form. - Gusty northeast winds will produce hazardous marine conditions by mid-week across eastern Gulf waters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Ridging remains overhead today which is resulting in light upper level. Interesting enough you would think light flow would result in highest storm chances in the interior when both seabreeze collide. However, climo actually favors the west coast during the afternoon before drifting inland by the evening. By Tuesday the upper level ridging will shift north resulting in our wind flow turning easterly. This will continue to bring favorable storm chances along the west coast of Florida with timing in the late afternoon and evening hours. As we head into our Wednesday an upper level low will start to approach the state. Ahead of the low we will see dryer air especially along and north of I-4 where showers will not be expected. At the same time at the surface winds will start to increase our of the east. We will see sustained wind around 15 mph and with gust as high as 25. This upper level low will start to push through on Thursday. As it does so winds will stay elevated as shower chances north of I-4 return. The upper level low will move away from the state on Friday as winds start to calm down. Even though we will see enough moisture aloft for storms both Thursday and Friday the upper level low will bring some drier air at the surface. This will allow morning lows to be slightly cooler with most of us in the low to mid 70`s instead of the mid to upper 70`s. It might not sound like much but after months of high humidity and warm morning it will be our first small hint of the changing seasons. By the weekend the upper level low will be gone however the stronger upper level flow out of the southeast will continue. This will result in storm chances favoring the west coast once again through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 256 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Our upper level flow will remain light once again today. This will favor storms on the west coast of Florida in the afternoon and evening hours. Outside of thunderstorms we can expect VFR conditions with winds generally below 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 256 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Wind will remain light today with winds around 5 knots. As the ridge start to move away winds will shift easterly around 5 to 10 knots. By Wednesday an upper level low will start to approach the area and then push through on Thursday. This will quickly increase the winds out of the northeast between 15 to 25 knots with increasing seas. By Friday the upper level low will push away resulting in winds coming down to 10 to 15 knots out of the east. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 256 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Deeper layer moisture remain over the state which will bring scattered showers and storms across the state through mid week. We will not have any major fire weather concern. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 77 90 77 / 60 20 70 10 FMY 92 76 92 76 / 60 30 70 10 GIF 93 75 91 75 / 60 30 60 0 SRQ 92 76 93 76 / 50 30 70 20 BKV 93 73 92 74 / 60 20 60 10 SPG 90 78 91 78 / 50 20 70 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 1 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
