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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tampa Bay - Ruskin, FL (West Central Florida) Selection: |
| #1256605 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:24 AM 08.Jan.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 713 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a high probability of early morning dense fog each day through the week. Fog will impact both land areas as well as coastal waters. - Above normal temperatures and humidity continue through the week. - Cooler weather will return early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 711 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 Satellite and surface observations show that the dense fog is a bit more patchy this morning when compared to this time yesterday. Some areas are experiencing shallow ground fog, others are seeing pretty thick and dense fog extending several hundred feet in depth from the surface, and others still are experiencing no restrictions to visibility at all. However, pockets of dense fog are touching nearly every county, as well as a large portion of nearshore coastal waters. Thus, the dense fog advisory remains in effect for the area through 9AM. It is possible that some areas may need an extension for an hour or two depending on how conditions evolve. However, fog should quickly begin to erode as the sun comes up and begins to heat the surface while simultaneously generating more mixing above the fog to gradually erode the top of the layer. By late morning, most of the fog - if not all of it - should be gone, with a mostly sunny, but warmer-than-normal day expected for through the afternoon. Overall, the forecast looks on track. Fog continues to be the primary impact through the weekend. As such, have made some adjustments to the current fog forecast. Otherwise, no additional changes are needed at this time. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 711 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 LIFR conditions continue for most terminals this morning as fog reduces visibility to near or below minimums at many airports. This will erode over the next 2 to 3 hours, with perhaps some residual IFR conditions lasting as late as 16Z before VFR returns. Fog will continue to be the primary concern for aviation each morning through the weekend. However, the setup is looking slightly different tomorrow, which leads to slightly reduced confidence in overall coverage and the level of impact. Nevertheless, a window will exist at all airports tomorrow morning - as well as subsequent mornings thereafter through Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 Broad upper ridging and surface high pressure across Florida and into the eastern gulf waters continue to dominate the weather pattern through the remainder of the week. This will keep rain-free conditions and above average temperatures across west central and southwest Florida through Saturday. Light winds, clear skies and abundant low level moisture will support areas of dense fog across west central and southwest Florida for the next few mornings. Sea fog will also be a concern with warmer air over the cooler eastern gulf waters. This has warranted the issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM for parts of west central and southwest Florida and parts of the eastern Gulf Waters. Similar conditions expected once again on Friday morning with fog continuing to be the main weather concern. By Saturday afternoon, the ridge shifts slightly eastward and becomes more southwest to northeast oriented from the Bahamas to Bermuda. Farther to the north and west, upper troughing and a cold front extends southward through the Mississippi River Valley and into the central Gulf. As this cold front moves eastward late Saturday into Sunday, there will be increasing chances of showers over the eastern gulf waters and along the Nature Coast, but most of the area from Tampa Bay southward and the interior counties should stay rain-free. By early Monday morning, the front pushes south and east of Florida as strong high pressure builds into the southeast U.S. and Florida. This high pressure will help usher in some cooler and drier air for the first half of next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 200 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 Sea fog is the primary impact across the coastal waters through the week as high pressure keeps light winds and seas in place until Sunday. There is a high probability of visibilities being reduced to less than 1 NM across inshore, nearshore, and offshore waters during the overnight hours. Even during the day, some patches of fog will linger with a light wind flow. This has warranted the issuance of a Marine Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM for parts of the eastern Gulf Waters. On Sunday, the next cold front will move through the region, bringing the next chance of showers and storms and producing a period of elevated winds and seas. High pressure settles into the region next week with pleasant and cooler weather expected for the first half of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 Light winds, high relative humidity values and rain-free conditions will continue to keep overall fire weather concerns low for the week. However, there is a high probability that fog will develop each night through the week. If any residual smoke lingers, this could mix with fog to reduce visibilities to near zero, especially during the early morning hours when fog is favored to be the thickest and most widespread. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 81 64 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 84 64 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 82 63 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 81 63 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 82 57 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 79 67 80 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands- Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Gulf waters...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
| #1256582 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:12 AM 08.Jan.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 204 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a high probability of early morning dense fog each day through the week. Fog will impact both land areas as well as coastal waters. - Above normal temperatures and humidity continue through the week. - Cooler weather will return early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 Broad upper ridging and surface high pressure across Florida and into the eastern gulf waters continue to dominate the weather pattern through the remainder of the week. This will keep rain-free conditions and above average temperatures across west central and southwest Florida through Saturday. Light winds, clear skies and abundant low level moisture will support areas of dense fog across west central and southwest Florida for the next few mornings. Sea fog will also be a concern with warmer air over the cooler eastern gulf waters. This has warranted the issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM for parts of west central and southwest Florida and parts of the eastern Gulf Waters. Similar conditions expected once again on Friday morning with fog continuing to be the main weather concern. By Saturday afternoon, the ridge shifts slightly eastward and becomes more southwest to northeast oriented from the Bahamas to Bermuda. Farther to the north and west, upper troughing and a cold front extends southward through the Mississippi River Valley and into the central Gulf. As this cold front moves eastward late Saturday into Sunday, there will be increasing chances of showers over the eastern gulf waters and along the Nature Coast, but most of the area from Tampa Bay southward and the interior counties should stay rain-free. By early Monday morning, the front pushes south and east of Florida as strong high pressure builds into the southeast U.S. and Florida. This high pressure will help usher in some cooler and drier air for the first half of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 200 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 Once again, fog and low clouds will be the main aviation concern this morning, with a high probability of impacts across all sites. Highest confidence is with lower visibilities, but some low cigs are likely enough that they were included in the TEMPO groups. Improvement is expected around 15Z or so with VFR expected through the daytime hours. Another round of fog and low clouds is possible Thursday night into Friday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 200 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 Sea fog is the primary impact across the coastal waters through the week as high pressure keeps light winds and seas in place until Sunday. There is a high probability of visibilities being reduced to less than 1 NM across inshore, nearshore, and offshore waters during the overnight hours. Even during the day, some patches of fog will linger with a light wind flow. This has warranted the issuance of a Marine Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM for parts of the eastern Gulf Waters. On Sunday, the next cold front will move through the region, bringing the next chance of showers and storms and producing a period of elevated winds and seas. High pressure settles into the region next week with pleasant and cooler weather expected for the first half of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 Light winds, high relative humidity values and rain-free conditions will continue to keep overall fire weather concerns low for the week. However, there is a high probability that fog will develop each night through the week. If any residual smoke lingers, this could mix with fog to reduce visibilities to near zero, especially during the early morning hours when fog is favored to be the thickest and most widespread. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 81 64 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 84 64 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 82 63 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 81 63 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 82 57 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 79 67 80 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands- Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Gulf waters...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
