Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 199531 Years of Hurricanes Without the Hype - Since 1995
Nothing near term in the Atlantic now as Post-SubTropical Josephine heads out to sea.
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tampa Bay - Ruskin, FL (West Central Florida) Selection: |
| #1283951 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:18 PM 29.Oct.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 808 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hazardous marine conditions across the coastal waters will continue, although winds not quite as strong. - Slight decrease in winds with a few showers possible through Friday, mainly inland and over southwest Florida. && .UPDATE... Issued at 805 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Forecast on track with no adjustments planned this evening. High pressure to the north continues providing E/NE flow and W Atlantic moisture across the area, accompanied by partly to occasionaly mostly cloudy skies and widely scattered showers. While overall shower coverage will diminish overnight, areas of low cloudiness and perhaps spotty mist/patchy fog will be possible, particularly after midnight, before gradually improving Friday morning after sunrise. Expect overnight lows in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Overall winds are starting to come down after a breezy last few days. This is due to the low pressure that has been sitting in the Atlantic finally starting to drift away. This means quite but warm conditions for the rest of our work week with temperatures remaining above average with highs in the mid 80`s and lows around 70 degrees. As we head into our weekend our next frontal system will be approaching the area. This will shift our upper level flow more westerly and southwesterly with increasing moisture on Saturday. This will result in shower activity returning to the area. Current models are showing the deeper moisture over SW Florida with PW above 2 inches. This is where we will see the best chance of rain with isolated showers for the rest of the area. The front itself will push through on Sunday. This will bring scattered to widespread showers to the whole area mainly in the morning and afternoon hours. By Monday the front will be gone and we will see high pressure along the eastern seaboard. Models are not showing a huge change behind the front with Temperatures going down slightly as lows get into the mid 60`s with highs around 80 degrees. These temperatures are around average for this time of year. These conditions will stick around through Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 740 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Mainly VFR expected through the period. Atlantic moisture advecting westward across the state will lead to a period of potential MVFR/LCL IFR cigs overnight into Friday morning, mainly in the 06-15Z timeframe. Latest hi-res and MOS guidance indicates highest potential over SWFL terminals where MVFR and TEMPO IFR cigs are indicated, with less certainty for northern terminals where VFR cigs are maintained this cycle for now. E/NE winds through the period generally 8-12 knots with higher gusts late morning through early evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Winds will remain elevated out of the east around 15 to 20 knots for the rest of our week keeping SCEC in place. A front will approach the area and push through on Sunday. This will bring scattered showers across the area mainly on Sunday with winds remaining around 15 to 20 knots out of the east. We will dry out by early next week but winds in the Gulf will remain the same with speed around 15 to 20 knots out of the east. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Dry air will be in place through the rest of the week as winds have slowly come down. As we head into our weekend we will see a cold front approach the area with scattered to widespread showers expected on Sunday as the front passing. We will start to dry out once again early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 71 86 72 85 / 0 20 0 20 FMY 73 88 74 87 / 0 20 10 60 GIF 71 87 71 86 / 10 20 10 30 SRQ 71 87 72 86 / 0 10 0 30 BKV 69 87 70 86 / 10 10 0 10 SPG 71 85 73 84 / 0 10 0 30 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1283916 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 PM 29.Oct.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 148 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hazardous marine conditions across the coastal waters will continue, although winds not quite as strong. - Slight decrease in winds with a few showers possible, mainly inland and over southwest Florida. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Overall winds are starting to come down after a breezy last few days. This is due to the low pressure that has been sitting in the Atlantic finally starting to drift away. This means quite but warm conditions for the rest of our work week with temperatures remaining above average with highs in the mid 80`s and lows around 70 degrees. As we head into our weekend our next frontal system will be approaching the area. This will shift our upper level flow more westerly and southwesterly with increasing moisture on Saturday. This will result in shower activity returning to the area. Current models are showing the deeper moisture over SW Florida with PW above 2 inches. This is where we will see the best chance of rain with isolated showers for the rest of the area. The front itself will push through on Sunday. This will bring scattered to widespread showers to the whole area mainly in the morning and afternoon hours. By Monday the front will be gone and we will see high pressure along the eastern seaboard. Models are not showing a huge change behind the front with Temperatures going down slightly as lows get into the mid 60`s with highs around 80 degrees. These temperatures are around average for this time of year. These conditions will stick around through Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 We can expect VFR conditions for the rest of the day. MVFR and IFR CIGS looks to stay in SW Florida tomorrow morning with our northern sites staying VFR. Winds will remain out of the east with some gust near 15 knots during the rest of the afternoon or evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Winds will remain elevated out of the east around 15 to 20 knots for the rest of our week keeping SCEC in place. A front will approach the area and push through on Sunday. This will bring scattered showers across the area mainly on Sunday with winds remaining around 15 to 20 knots out of the east. We will dry out by early next week but winds in the Gulf will remain the same with speed around 15 to 20 knots out of the east. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Dry air will be in place through the rest of the week as winds have slowly come down. As we head into our weekend we will see a cold front approach the area with scattered to widespread showers expected on Sunday as the front passing. We will start to dry out once again early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 86 71 86 72 / 10 0 20 0 FMY 88 73 88 74 / 10 0 20 10 GIF 87 71 87 71 / 20 10 20 10 SRQ 87 71 87 72 / 10 0 10 0 BKV 87 69 87 70 / 10 10 10 0 SPG 85 71 85 73 / 10 0 10 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1283903 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:51 AM 29.Oct.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 845 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hazardous marine conditions across the coastal waters will continue, although winds not quite as strong. - Slight decrease in winds with a few showers possible, mainly inland and over southwest Florida. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Very little change to overall forecast dynamics/reasoning. U/L split flow pattern continues along the west coast of the U.S. with a mean overall U/L trough across the western U.S., and weak downstream ridging over the Gulf and Florida. The persistent U/L low which remains just northeast of the Bahamas will lift slowly north today and will be absorbed into the main U/L flow over the western Atlantic today and Friday. A strong northern stream disturbance will dig over the Pacific northwest over the next several days causing the west coast trough to amplify...which will strengthen the downstream ridge over the Gulf and Florida in the wake of the exiting U/L low. The building heights over the forecast area combined with the increasing large scale subsidence will allow temperatures across west central and southwest Florida to climb several degrees above climatic normals today through Saturday. A southern stream disturbance will exit the base of the west coast trough late in the week and will push across the Mississippi River valley Saturday/Saturday night, moving slowly over the mid Atlantic coast and Florida Sunday and Monday. An associated frontal boundary will push across the forecast area Sunday and Sunday night with showers and a few thunderstorms likely. This will also decrease heights over the state with daytime temperatures dropping back several degrees due to the increasing cloudiness/showers, but will still run above climatic normals. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the region today with a rather tight pressure gradient in place...but not as strong as the past several days. Gusty northeast winds will continue across west central and southwest Florida along with the adjacent coastal waters. A chance of showers will develop this afternoon, mainly across the interior and southwest Florida, due to the continued convergent northeast flow off the Atlantic which will advect scattered showers onshore the east central/southeast Florida coast which will push inland. Any precipitation will be light. Over the weekend, the surface high will begin to exit the area as the U/L trough moves over the state and an associated frontal boundary will push across the forecast area with showers likely along with isolated thunderstorms. Surface high pressure will build back over the region early next week in the wake of the cold front with clearing skies. However, no cold air in sight as temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above climatic normals each day. Relatively muggy conditions will persist with dew points generally in the 60s to around 70. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 841 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 MVFR and IFR CIGS across the area will start to lift as we go through the next few hours. After that we can expect VFR conditions for the rest of the day. MVFR and IFR CIGS looks to stay in SW Florida tomorrow morning with our northern sites staying VFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Advisory level winds will persist across the waters through Thursday morning, with exercise caution the remainder of the day. An evening surge of wind Thursday evening could cause a few hours of advisory level winds, especially over the outer waters. Winds are expected to remain elevated at cautionary levels through Saturday night. A cold front will push across the waters on Sunday with showers likely and isolated thunderstorms. The gradient will weaken behind the cold front with conditions dropping below cautionary levels, which will continue into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1200 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 86 71 86 73 / 10 0 10 0 FMY 88 73 88 73 / 20 0 20 10 GIF 87 71 87 72 / 20 10 20 0 SRQ 87 71 87 72 / 10 0 20 0 BKV 87 69 87 70 / 10 0 10 0 SPG 85 72 85 73 / 10 0 10 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1283857 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:45 AM 29.Oct.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1235 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hazardous marine conditions across the coastal waters will continue, although winds not quite as strong. - Slight decrease in winds with a few showers possible, mainly inland and over southwest Florida. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Very little change to overall forecast dynamics/reasoning. U/L split flow pattern continues along the west coast of the U.S. with a mean overall U/L trough across the western U.S., and weak downstream ridging over the Gulf and Florida. The persistent U/L low which remains just northeast of the Bahamas will lift slowly north today and will be absorbed into the main U/L flow over the western Atlantic today and Friday. A strong northern stream disturbance will dig over the Pacific northwest over the next several days causing the west coast trough to amplify...which will strengthen the downstream ridge over the Gulf and Florida in the wake of the exiting U/L low. The building heights over the forecast area combined with the increasing large scale subsidence will allow temperatures across west central and southwest Florida to climb several degrees above climatic normals today through Saturday. A southern stream disturbance will exit the base of the west coast trough late in the week and will push across the Mississippi River valley Saturday/Saturday night, moving slowly over the mid Atlantic coast and Florida Sunday and Monday. An associated frontal boundary will push across the forecast area Sunday and Sunday night with showers and a few thunderstorms likely. This will also decrease heights over the state with daytime temperatures dropping back several degrees due to the increasing cloudiness/showers, but will still run above climatic normals. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the region today with a rather tight pressure gradient in place...but not as strong as the past several days. Gusty northeast winds will continue across west central and southwest Florida along with the adjacent coastal waters. A chance of showers will develop this afternoon, mainly across the interior and southwest Florida, due to the continued convergent northeast flow off the Atlantic which will advect scattered showers onshore the east central/southeast Florida coast which will push inland. Any precipitation will be light. Over the weekend, the surface high will begin to exit the area as the U/L trough moves over the state and an associated frontal boundary will push across the forecast area with showers likely along with isolated thunderstorms. Surface high pressure will build back over the region early next week in the wake of the cold front with clearing skies. However, no cold air in sight as temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above climatic normals each day. Relatively muggy conditions will persist with dew points generally in the 60s to around 70. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Areas of MVFR CIGs the remainder of the night vcnty all terminals with SCT LCL BKN025 near TPA/PIE/LAL/SRQ...and 010-015 near PGD/FMY/RSW. Cloud bases will lift around mid morning Thursday with areas of BKN CIGs 040-050 the remainder of the day. Slight chance of a light shower at PGD/FMY/RSW mainly during the afternoon hours, however CIGs are expected to remain VFR. Gusty northeast winds will persist at all terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Advisory level winds will persist across the waters through Thursday morning, with exercise caution the remainder of the day. An evening surge of wind Thursday evening could cause a few hours of advisory level winds, especially over the outer waters. Winds are expected to remain elevated at cautionary levels through Saturday night. A cold front will push across the waters on Sunday with showers likely and isolated thunderstorms. The gradient will weaken behind the cold front with conditions dropping below cautionary levels, which will continue into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1200 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 86 72 86 72 / 20 10 20 0 FMY 88 73 88 73 / 20 10 30 0 GIF 87 72 88 72 / 30 20 20 0 SRQ 87 72 87 72 / 20 0 30 10 BKV 87 69 87 69 / 20 10 20 0 SPG 85 72 85 73 / 10 0 20 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
