Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 199530 Years of Hurricanes Without the Hype - Since 1995
90L likely to form into a depression or storm today. Bermuda should watch it closely.
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tampa Bay - Ruskin, FL (West Central Florida) Selection: |
| #1242551 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:00 AM 23.Aug.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 242 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Not a lot of change in the synoptic pattern from 24 hours ago. Upper ridging and surface high pressure remains south of Florida stretching east to west through the Florida Straits. A stationary frontal boundary extends across northern Florida and then further westward along the northern gulf coast states, while high pressure sits off the Mid-Atlantic and New England coastline. With Florida situated between ridging to the south and the stationary frontal boundary over northern Florida, we will see a predominant onshore wind flow for the next few days. Abundant moisture will continue with PWAT values around 1.8 - 2.3 inches. This will equate to high rain chances with scattered to numerous showers and storms through the weekend, with early development over the coastal waters and moving eastward during the day. By late Sunday into Monday, the stationary boundary shifts a little southward and will be located over central Florida, while high pressure ridging remains over south Florida, resulting in continued onshore flow to start out next week. By late Tuesday into Wednesday, the stationary boundary will push south and east of Florida as high pressure builds in to the north over the southeast CONUS. This will bring a shift in winds to the north late Tuesday into Wednesday. As high pressure sets up over the mid-Atlantic states by the middle of next week, a more typical summertime pattern with easterly winds will set up over Florida once again, producing more typical sea breeze showers and storms each afternoon. Temperatures will be slightly below average through Monday with daytime highs in the upper 80`s to low 90`s. A warm up is expected starting Tuesday with average to slightly above average temps expected with daytime highs in the low to mid 90`s. For the tropics, Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin continues to move northeastward through the northern Atlantic. The NHC is also tracking two other tropical waves in the central Atlantic, but models keep these systems away from Florida and the east coast of the U.S. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 240 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 It will be a wet day with scattered to numerous showers and storms possible through the day. Latest radar imagery is already showing showers and storms forming over the eastern gulf and moving eastward. Will hold VCTS at all terminals through around 22Z. Will hold TEMPO TSRA from 11-16Z for TPA/PIE/SRQ with some MVFR CIGs and gusty winds possible. Showers and storms will impact LAL/PGD/FMY/RSW slightly later, so will hold TEMPO TSRA from 14-18Z. Showers and storms will be slow to clear the terminals with most guidance showing clearing after 22Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 240 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Persistent west-southwest winds 15 knots or less and 1-2 foot seas will continue over the eastern gulf waters over the weekend and for the start of next week. Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected over the coming days with showers and storms firing up over the eastern gulf waters early morning and traversing eastward toward the coast late morning and into the afternoon. Outside of thunderstorms, winds and seas remain below headline criteria. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 240 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Abundant moisture will keep RH values above critical levels through the period. Scattered to numerous summertime showers and storms expected each day. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will remain less than 15 mph, precluding any fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 89 81 89 81 / 80 60 80 50 FMY 91 79 90 78 / 70 40 60 20 GIF 91 76 90 76 / 80 40 70 30 SRQ 89 79 89 79 / 80 60 80 50 BKV 88 74 88 74 / 80 60 70 40 SPG 86 79 86 80 / 80 70 80 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
