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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tampa Bay - Ruskin, FL (West Central Florida) Selection: |
| #1236579 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:12 AM 01.Jul.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 800 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 800 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Quieter start to the day as the scattered showers and thunderstorms are well offshore with partly to mostly cloudy skies across the rest of the area. Looking like we`ll see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon as the west coast sea breeze moves inland then becoming numerous as they spread inland and north into the evening. Overall forecast looks on track with no major changes planned. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 800 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Mainly VFR conditions are expected through early afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop at around 19z and then spreading north and east before tapering off between 02z and 06z tonight. More convection is expected to develop toward Wednesday morning around the Tampa Bay TAF sites. Southeast to south winds at around 5 knots this morning will shift to southwest at 7 to 12 knots this afternoon, and then become light southerly during this evening. However, gusty erratic winds possible near any thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 In the upper levels, the TUTT low continues to meander east of Florida this morning, while broad ridging builds into the western Gulf. At the surface, a strong area of high pressure over the western Atlantic is ridging across central Florida this morning, but will slide south by tonight, setting up southwesterly low level flow that will hold through the remainder of the week. With deep moisture remaining in place, this pattern will favor numerous showers and storms developing over the eastern Gulf during the overnight and early morning hours and shifting onshore, mainly across the Nature Coast, then convection developing along the I-75 corridor during the late morning to early afternoon and shifting inland through the early evening. Starting tonight and Wednesday, a broad surface trough will push south into the northeastern Gulf and northern Florida that will linger through the weekend. The National Hurricane Center is still giving this system a 20% chance of becoming tropical somewhere in the vicinity of Florida early next week, but regardless of tropical development, it will boost moisture (PWAT values of 2.0-2.4) and resultant rain coverage. 7 day rain totals are forecast to be up to 7 inches (with the highest amounts along the coast), with locally higher amounts possible. This much rain could result in some areal flooding and cause rises on some area rivers to near or above minor flood stage. Otherwise, with all the rain and increased cloud cover, afternoon high temperatures will be kept down slightly, generally topping out near to a couple degrees below normal through the next 7 days. && .MARINE... Issued at 350 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 High pressure ridging across the Tampa Bay today will shift south by tonight, with mainly southwest flow setting up Wednesday through the rest of the week. Winds will generally remain less than 15 knots, but numerous to widespread thunderstorms will develop each day, producing locally higher winds and rough marine conditions. Late in the week and into the weekend, a broad surface trough will settle into the northeastern Gulf, creating light and rather variable wind directions, with deep moisture continuing to produce scattered to numerous storms each day. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 350 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Deep moisture will keep relative humidity well above critically low levels through the week. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop each day, shifting onshore from the Gulf during the morning hours, then building inland through the afternoon and early evening. Patchy high dispersion indices will be possible each afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 78 88 79 / 60 40 70 60 FMY 92 76 91 77 / 60 40 50 30 GIF 91 75 89 76 / 70 40 70 40 SRQ 90 76 88 77 / 60 40 70 60 BKV 90 73 88 74 / 60 40 70 60 SPG 87 78 86 78 / 60 40 70 70 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1236555 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:00 AM 01.Jul.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 350 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 In the upper levels, the TUTT low continues to meander east of Florida this morning, while broad ridging builds into the western Gulf. At the surface, a strong area of high pressure over the western Atlantic is ridging across central Florida this morning, but will slide south by tonight, setting up southwesterly low level flow that will hold through the remainder of the week. With deep moisture remaining in place, this pattern will favor numerous showers and storms developing over the eastern Gulf during the overnight and early morning hours and shifting onshore, mainly across the Nature Coast, then convection developing along the I-75 corridor during the late morning to early afternoon and shifting inland through the early evening. Starting tonight and Wednesday, a broad surface trough will push south into the northeastern Gulf and northern Florida that will linger through the weekend. The National Hurricane Center is still giving this system a 20% chance of becoming tropical somewhere in the vicinity of Florida early next week, but regardless of tropical development, it will boost moisture (PWAT values of 2.0-2.4) and resultant rain coverage. 7 day rain totals are forecast to be up to 7 inches (with the highest amounts along the coast), with locally higher amounts possible. This much rain could result in some areal flooding and cause rises on some area rivers to near or above minor flood stage. Otherwise, with all the rain and increased cloud cover, afternoon high temperatures will be kept down slightly, generally topping out near to a couple degrees below normal through the next 7 days. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 350 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Mainly VFR conditions are expected through early afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will then develop and shift east across area TAF sites, with periods of thunderstorms possible starting around 20z, tapering between 01z and 06z tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 350 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 High pressure ridging across the Tampa Bay today will shift south by tonight, with mainly southwest flow setting up Wednesday through the rest of the week. Winds will generally remain less than 15 knots, but numerous to widespread thunderstorms will develop each day, producing locally higher winds and rough marine conditions. Late in the week and into the weekend, a broad surface trough will settle into the northeastern Gulf, creating light and rather variable wind directions, with deep moisture continuing to produce scattered to numerous storms each day. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 350 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Deep moisture will keep relative humidity well above critically low levels through the week. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop each day, shifting onshore from the Gulf during the morning hours, then building inland through the afternoon and early evening. Patchy high dispersion indices will be possible each afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 78 88 79 / 60 40 70 60 FMY 92 76 91 77 / 60 40 50 30 GIF 91 75 89 76 / 70 40 70 40 SRQ 90 76 88 77 / 60 40 70 60 BKV 90 73 88 74 / 60 40 70 60 SPG 87 78 86 78 / 60 40 70 70 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
