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| #1264387 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:27 AM 04.Apr.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 310 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches through the Weekend - Locally Dense Inland Fog Inland this Morning and Sunday Morning - Near Record Highs Possible Today and Sunday - Scattered Thunderstorms Possible from Sunday Afternoon through Monday - Strong Onshore Winds & Small Craft Advisory Conditions Next Week - Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Main Highlights through Tonight: - High Risk of Rip Current Risk at the Northeast FL Beaches This Weekend. - Near Record Inland High Temperatures This Afternoon - Patchy inland fog this morning and again Sunday Morning. Today will be much drier than yesterday, especially inland where numerous thunderstorms developed yesterday. A drying southerly flow will stabilize convective potential with a persisting pattern consisting of a surface ridge axis extending across the area. Southeasterly flow and thermal trough inland will push another breezy Atlantic sea breeze inland this afternoon with gusts up to 20 mph accompanying it. Though chances are limited (rain chance < 15%), there is a chance for shallow, isolated showers developing along the sea breeze late in the afternoon but thunderstorms are unlikely. Southerly flow and deep mixing will boost inland temperatures toward near record levels this afternoon with readings near 90 degrees. Given the sea breeze the coast will be about 8-10 degrees cooler. Tonight, upper flow pattern will buckle as an upstream upper trough and attendant surface cold front approaches. This will lead to a light southerly boundary layer wind and should mute fog development, however, patchy and shallow fog still will be possible where surface winds trend calm. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: -Thunderstorm potential Sunday and Monday -Near Record Highs Possible Sunday Warm SW flow develops ahead of a cold front moving through the SE US on Sunday. Daytime highs will rise into the mid-upper 80s with some locations possibly reaching near record around 90 across north central FL on Sunday afternoon. With the SW flow, the Gulf sea breeze will shift well inland and merge with the Atlantic sea breeze along the I-95 corridor in the late afternoon and evening. Best chances for showers and storms will be along the I-95 corridor with the merger and inland SE GA ahead of the front. Convection along the front gradually wanes as it shifts southeastward through the area Sunday night. Overnight lows on Sunday will range from the upper 50s in SE GA to the low 60s in NE FL. The cold front will continue to push through NE FL and into central FL on Monday. Scattered showers will be present for much of the day along the front as it pushes through, increasing to numerous across north central FL by the afternoon hours. A few embedded thunderstorms will develop mainly in NE FL due to the proximity to the frontal boundary. Cooler temperatures on Monday with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s/60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: -Strong onshore flow next week, with elevated winds along the coast and inland locations A stronger upper level shortwave will cross over the SE US and shift the front further southward on Tuesday. Showers across NE FL on Tuesday gradually wane as the front moves away. Behind the front, strong high pressure builds down along the southeastern seaboard through Thursday bringing a surge of ENE winds. Wind gusts could potentially reach 30-40 mph across coastal locations. Isolated to scattered showers will develop in the onshore flow. Temperatures will be below seasonable through the week with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s/60s. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Light easterly winds continue with VFR skies through the next few hours. Winds may trend calm inland, allowing shallow ground fog formation at inland airfields. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions and southeasterly winds turning easterly with the breezy Atlantic sea breeze is expected today. Similar to the last few days, anticipate gusts around 20 knots with the sea breeze this afternoon. Winds will gradually weaken and veer southeasterly to southerly after 00z. && .MARINE... Ahead of an approaching cool front, onshore winds will veer southerly across the waters tonight through Sunday. The slowing front will gradually move north to south through the waters Sunday night bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms as the front stalls through Monday. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build to the north resulting in strengthening northeasterly winds Monday night and the onset of a multiday period of strong onshore winds throughout next week, likely requiring an extended Small Craft Advisory. Much stronger high pressure will wedge along the coast Wednesday resulting in further strengthening and potential for gales and seas building potentially up to 15 feet across the waters. As high pressure breaks away from the eastern seaboard late in the week, onshore winds will begin to relax. Rip Currents: Latest buoys indicate a gradual decrease in wave heights over the last 12 hours, with breakers generally between 2-4 feet this afternoon. This afternoon will increase to a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents as the sea breeze develops. Increasing longshore winds/currents will increase breakers by a foot or so Sunday which may be enough to tip the scales to a low-end High Risk of Rip Currents, more so along the NE FL beaches. For now, Moderate risk of rips are expected today and Sunday. It is very likely, that surf will become life-threatening next week as strong onshore winds and high surf develops. && .FIRE WEATHER... - High Afternoon Dispersions North-Central Fl Today - High Afternoon Dispersions Inland Se Ga Sunday High pressure will shift further into the Atlantic today continuing south-southeasterly winds. Slightly drier air today will drop inland Min RHs into the mid-upper 30s and keep rain chances low. A few showers will be possible over far interior SE GA late this afternoon. Winds shift to southwesterly and increase ahead of an approaching cold front on Sunday. Elevated mixing heights inland and increasing south-southwesterly winds will result in generally good dispersions with areas of high dispersions this weekend. The Gulf sea breeze will shift far inland and merge with the Atlantic sea breeze late Sunday afternoon bringing showers and storms. Beneficial rain then returns with the frontal passage Sunday night into Monday. Volatile fuel beds, due to the exceptional/extreme drought, combined with breezy winds could lead to erratic fire behavior. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog potential each morning this weekend. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: April 4: - KGNV: 91/1974 April 5: - KJAX: 91/2017 - KGNV: 91/2025 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 86 62 84 58 / 10 10 40 50 SSI 78 64 80 62 / 0 0 40 60 JAX 85 62 88 62 / 0 0 40 40 SGJ 83 63 85 64 / 0 0 40 40 GNV 89 60 89 62 / 0 0 20 20 OCF 89 62 88 62 / 0 0 20 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Risk for Rip Currents until 6 AM EDT early this morning for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 6 AM EDT early this morning for GAZ154-166. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1264386 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:24 AM 04.Apr.2026) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 318 AM AST Sat Apr 4 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 318 AM AST Sat Apr 4 2026 * Breezy to locally windy conditions and a fading northeasterly swell will persist through early next week, leading to hazardous marine conditions and the formation of life-threatening rip current along northern and eastern beaches. * Above-normal moisture and increasing instability will support periods of heavy rainfall through midweek. * Elevated flooding risk, especially across windward areas overnight and interior/western Puerto Rico each afternoon. * Warmer-than-normal temperatures will develop by midweek, with heat indices potentially reaching the low 100s. && .Short Term(Today through Monday)... Issued at 318 AM AST Sat Apr 4 2026 Fair weather prevailed today across the islands, with passing showers across the local waters and moving inland across the windward sections in PR and the USVI occasionally. The easterly winds were mainly 10 or less, with land-breeze variations, especially along the leeward sections. Most coastal and urban sites recorded minimum temperatures in the low or mid-70s, while mountain sites recorded maximum temperatures in the low 60s. A surface high-pressure system over the central Atlantic will maintain an east to southeast wind flow across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. This will result in breezy to locally windy conditions, with low-level winds generally between 15 and 20 knots. Under this surface regime, moisture levels will remain near or above climatological normal (with precipitable water (PWAT) values ranging from 2.0 to 2.2 inches, near or above the 75th percentile), supporting the development of trade wind showers. These showers will primarily affect windward locations each day, especially during the overnight and early morning hours, from late tonight into Sunday, and again from Sunday night into early Monday. A mid- to upper-level trough will gradually increase instability, with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 6.0-6.5 C/km. Combined with mid-level humidity between 70 and 90 percent, this environment will support efficient rainfall processes with some isolated thunderstorms between the afternoon and evening hours. By Sunday into Monday, this trough is expected to extend into the upper levels across or near the northeastern Caribbean, further enhancing atmospheric instability across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. This evolving pattern will favor periods of trade wind showers during the overnight and morning hours, particularly across windward areas. When combined with low-level convergence, these showers could produce locally heavy rainfall and increase the risk of flooding in these regions. During the afternoon and evening hours, strong convective development is expected across interior and western Puerto Rico, with additional impacts possible across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Overall, this pattern supports an elevated risk of flooding rainfall in the short term. Beach forecast Confused seas are creating life-threatening rip currents along north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, where entering the water is strongly discouraged. While south- facing beaches have a lower risk, caution is still advised as conditions can change quickly. && .Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)... Issued at 318 AM AST Sat Apr 4 2026 A wet and unstable pattern will prevail across the region through much of the long-term period, as a mid- to upper-level trough approaches from the west and settles across the northeastern Caribbean. At the surface, an induced inverted trough near Hispaniola will maintain a persistent southeasterly wind flow across the region. This will promote the advection of abundant tropical moisture into the forecast area, with precipitable water (PWAT) values increasing to near or above 2.0 inches and moisture deepening through the entire column. This southeasterly flow will also support above normal temperatures, with model guidance indicating 925 mb temperatures increasing to near two standard deviations above climatological normals by midweek. As a result, warmer-than-normal conditions are expected at the surface, with heat indices potentially reaching the low 100s for the first time this year in some areas. In addition to the heat impacts, the increased low-level warmth will contribute to greater instability, providing additional fuel for convective development. Aloft, the presence of the upper-level trough will further enhance instability, with low- to mid-level lapse rates becoming modestly steep for the region. Combined with elevated relative humidity values through the 850-500 mb layer, this will support the development of heavy showers and widespread convective development. Under this pattern, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, with activity becoming more widespread during the afternoon hours due to diurnal heating and local effects. The most active period is anticipated Wednesday through Thursday, when the combination of peak moisture, anomalous warmth, and upper-level support will maximize convective coverage. Thunderstorms during this period will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. The available heat and instability may also support stronger thunderstorm development, with the potential for intense downpours. As a result, the risk of urban and small stream flooding will remain elevated, along with the potential for rapid river rises. Saturated soils and elevated streamflows from previous rainfall will further exacerbate flooding impacts, particularly across flood-prone and poor drainage areas. By Friday onwards, conditions are expected to gradually improve as the upper-level trough weakens and shifts away from the region. Although lingering moisture will continue to support isolated to scattered shower activity, a reduction in overall coverage and intensity is expected, with a transition toward more typical trade wind conditions by late in the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 318 AM AST Sat Apr 4 2026 Mainly VFR conditions expected, with brief MVFR/IFR conditions possible in SHRA/TSRA. Trade wind showers will impact eastern terminals overnight, while afternoon convection (04/16-23z) may affect interior and western Puerto Rico as well as windward terminals, including TJBQ and TJSJ. Expect calm to light and VRB winds thru 04/13z, then winds from the east to southeast at 10-16 kt with higher gusts. Mountain obscurations likely during periods of heavier showers and TSRA. && .MARINE... Issued at 318 AM AST Sat Apr 4 2026 Hazardous marine conditions are expected to persist through next week. A strong high-pressure system in the Atlantic will maintain fresh to locally strong easterly winds today, veering east-southeast late this afternoon through Sunday. When combined with a subsiding northeasterly swell, seas will remain choppy to rough, particularly across Atlantic waters and local passages. Consequently, Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Atlantic offshore and coastal waters, including the Anegada and Mona Passages through Sunday afternoon. While trade wind showers continue across the region, expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon hours over coastal waters, especially near western and northwestern Puerto Rico. Coverage may increase slightly over the weekend as an upper-level trough arrives, interacting with abundant tropical moisture. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 318 AM AST Sat Apr 4 2026 Beaches across northern and eastern Puerto Rico, including Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands will remain hazardous for beachgoers throughout the weekend and into early next week. A subsiding northeasterly swell continues to spread across Atlantic waters and passages, with breezy to locally windy conditions along the coasts. Given these conditions, a High Rip Current Risk remains in effect for northern and eastern beaches of the islands through Sunday afternoon. Beachgoers and inexperienced surfers are strongly urged to avoid entering the water or walking on rocks and jetties, as life-threatening rip currents are highly likely. Always heed the advice of lifeguards and pay close attention to beach patrol flags and signs. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 318 AM AST Sat Apr 4 2026 Hydrologic conditions will become increasingly favorable for flooding impacts through much of the forecast period. Elevated moisture (PWAT 2.0 inches), increasing instability, and efficient warm-rain processes will support periods of heavy rainfall. Flooding is not expected to be widespread; however, there is an elevated risk of urban and small stream flooding, especially in areas experiencing repeated or slow-moving showers. The highest risk will occur overnight across windward areas and during the afternoon across interior and western Puerto Rico. Recent rainfall has resulted in saturated soils across portions of eastern and northern Puerto Rico, increasing runoff efficiency and the likelihood of rapid rises in streams and rivers, particularly in steep terrain. The flooding risk is expected to increase from this afternoon through midweek, with the potential for isolated flash flooding, especially during the peak period from Wednesday through Thursday. Conditions should gradually improve late in the week as moisture decreases and instability weakens. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012-013. VI...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for VIZ001-002. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Sunday for AMZ711-712-716- 723-741. Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Sunday for AMZ742. && $$ |
| #1264385 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:18 AM 04.Apr.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 305 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes; forecast remains on track. && .KEY MESSAGES... - After mild weather Friday, another backdoor front brings a return to chilly weather Saturday afternoon, especially eastern MA. - Showers Sat night and Sunday, milder with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s. - Could see a few rain/snow showers Monday night/ Tuesday morning,but otherwise expecting cooler temperatures and dry weather for a good portion of next week. - Second half of next week looks mainly dry with temperatures on the rise. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...After mild weather Friday, another backdoor front brings a return to chilly weather Saturday afternoon. Mild during the predawn hours of Saturday across SNE, with prefrontal airmass and dew pts in the upper 40s and lower 50s across the region. This moist airmass (by early April standards), courtesy of a modest low level prefrontal southwest jet, is the culprit for the low clouds, fog and spotty drizzle along the south coast. As a cold front approaches from the NW, surface winds over SNE will veer to the WNW toward daybreak, shunting this low level moisture offshore and giving way to clearing/improving conditions along the south coast toward sunrise. As northern stream jet energy streams across the maritimes this morning, its corresponding surface boundary will traverse across SNE in the form of a backdoor front, from east to west. Hence, warmest part of the day will be this morning, along with sunshine thru high clouds, warming temps through the 50s and 60s. Then followed by a noticeable temperature drop this afternoon from east to west, as winds shift from the north into the east with the FROPA. This wind shift will be abrupt, with gusts up to 30 mph from the ENE! This cold air is evident by a pocket of -2C temps at 925 mb advecting down the coast of ME & NH this morning, then into NE MA this afternoon. This chilly airmass will be enhanced by streaming across ocean temps in the low to mid 40s. At the surface, this will translate to a very large temp difference across SNE this afternoon, with highs well into the 60s across western MA/CT, while temps fall into the upper 30s and lower 40s across eastern MA, including Boston and Cape Cod. KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers Saturday night into Sunday, but turning mild Sunday, with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Saturday night...1035 mb surface high over the maritimes, combined with the backdoor front south of New England lifting north as warm front, will set the stage for overrunning precip in the form of spotty light rain/drizzle. Chilly with lows in the 30s, then temps rising overnight into the 40s as warm sector approaches from the south. Given the easterly upslope flow up, the eastern slopes of the Berks may experience temps at or below freezing. Hence, some spotty light freezing drizzle can`t be completely ruled out. However, given marginal temps and confined to elevation AOA 500 ft, little if any impact expected. Sunday...low pressure over the Great Lakes exits into Ontario, with its trailing cold front sweeping across SNE. Modest jet dynamics coupled with an ample moisture plume (PWATs 1.2-1.4 inches) will support widespread showers Sunday. Although, given how progressive this system is, expecting modest rainfall totals on the order of 0.2 to 0.4 tenths of an inch, which is supported by both deterministic and ensemble datasets. Hence, beneficial rains but flooding is not expected. Despite the widespread showers, its a mild airmass with dew pts in the 50s. Therefore, not a chilly day with strong low level WAA providing highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. It will become breezy over RI and eastern MA given the strengthening southwest jet. KEY MESSAGE 3...Could see a few rain/snow showers Monday night/ Tuesday morning, but otherwise expecting cooler temperatures and dry weather for a good portion of next week. Both ensemble and deterministic guidance continue to be in good agreement that an upper-level trough pushes across the Great Lakes and into New England next week, leading to mostly dry weather but cooler temperatures. Ensemble guidance is indicating 850mb temperatures could get to below -5C and 500mb temperatures below - 30C Tuesday as a shortwave moves through, which would support snow showers developing and mixing in with rain showers. Given that surface temperatures will remain at least in the mid 40s, not expecting any road or travel impacts. Otherwise, dry weather with high temps mainly in the middle 40s to the lower 50s and overnight temperatures ranging from the mid 20s to mid 30s through Wednesday night. KEY MESSAGE 4...Second half of next week looks mainly dry with temperatures on the rise. A large high pressure system moves into the Mid-Atlantic region by the second half of next week, bringing predominantly southwesterly flow back to southern New England. The warmer airmass advecting into the region will allow temperatures to recover back into the 50s, likely the 60s, by the end of the week. Expecting conditions to remain mostly dry. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z Update... High confidence in forecast trends, although, some uncertainty on exact timing of details. Saturday...any IFR cigs at 06z across southern RI/MA, will exit offshore and transition to VFR conditions, as winds shift from SW to N early this morning. Winds become easterly after sunrise. VFR and dry weather prevail, with MVFR cigs possible Cape Cod and Islands late in the day. Marginal LLWS 06z-09z across eastern MA, with WS020/27040KT. Saturday night...boundary south of New England lifts north as a warm front. This will support VFR/MVFR conditions at 00z Sun to transition to IFR/LIFR overnight, in spotty light rain/drizzle and areas of dense fog. East winds become southeast. Sunday...widespread showers and areas of fog supporting IFR/LIFR in the morning, improving to MVFR/VFR late in the day from west to east, as showers exit the region. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends. VFR and dry weather. SW winds at predawn, shift to the north by daybreak, then easterly thereafter. VFR and dry weather through Saturday evening push, then IFR/LIFR overnight into Sunday morning, in areas of drizzle and dense fog. KBDL Terminal...High confidence. VFR and dry weather today. SSW winds at predawn, become north toward daybreak, then easterly this afternoon. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Monday: Breezy. Monday Night: Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday: Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance SHSN. Tuesday Night: Breezy. Wednesday: && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence. Saturday...SW winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt at times ahead of an approaching cold will veer to the west around daybreak and then north, along with slacking speeds. This will improve all vsbys before sunrise. As the backdoor front moves across the MA/RI waters, winds will shift abruptly from north to east, with gusts up to 30 kt at times. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, chance of snow showers. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ231>235-237. Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for ANZ231>235-237-254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ254>256. && $$ |
| #1264384 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:09 AM 04.Apr.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 301 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 - A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through the weekend. Residents and visitors to Central Florida`s Atlantic beaches should stay out of the ocean. - Breezy conditions persist today, with mostly dry conditions. - Higher rain coverage and increasingly strong onshore winds are forecast next week, as a front moves through the state. Beach and boating conditions will become increasingly hazardous. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 Today-Tonight...High pressure over the western Atlantic maintains a ridge axis well north of the local area today. Drier air lingers over eastern half of the peninsula, though could see a few waves of moisture, with PWATs near 1.2" traverse the area through the afternoon. Mostly dry conditions prevail, though can`t rule out a shower in one of the bands of moisture, should a cloud become a little thicker, especially along the southern Treasure Coast this afternoon. Models suggest a shower or two near Palm Beach County today, so have maintained 20% PoPs for Martin County, with a lightning strike or two possible. Generally dry conditions then prevail into tonight. Onshore flow persists, with breezy conditions, especially along the coast. East-southeast winds 15-20 mph, with gusts 20-25 mph, are once again forecast this afternoon. Cooler ocean temperatures will help to keep coastal counties in the lower 80s this afternoon, while inland locations reach the mid to near upper 80s. Winds become light after sunset, as overnight lows dip into the 60s. Sunday-Wednesday...The Atlantic ridge weakens through the weekend, drifting farther offshore ahead of an approaching front, though the ridge axis will drift southward towards the local area as it flattens. Deeper moisture begins to advect into the peninsula, with PWATs near 1.3-1.4". Rain chances increase accordingly, up to 30- 50%. However, lingering drier air aloft will be a hindrance to deep convection. The best chance for storms looks to be over the interior, where lighter winds allow for a sea breeze collision in the afternoon. Should cells be able to overcome the dry air, it could contribute to a few stronger storms, with wind gusts near 50 mph and small hail. East-southeast winds remain around 10-15 mph along the coast, where highs will remain in the lower 80s. Inland will see highs in the mid to upper 80s. A weakening cold front sags southward through the area into mid-week next week, as strong high pressure develops over the eastern US and tightens the pressure gradient. Deep moisture, with PWATs 1.5-1.7", support along the front, and a strengthening subtropical jet aloft will lead to widespread PoPs 60-70% and up to 80% on Tuesday. Models have had trouble agreeing on the timing/placement of the front and have also differed from run to run, so confidence leaves something to be desired in the exact timing of the highest rain chances or rainfall totals. However, what is more confident is that the southwesterly jet aloft will oppose lower level breezy to windy onshore flow. This makes for a good setup for convergence showers and storms along the coast, some of which may linger over areas for an extended period of time. The bottom line is that coastal conditions will be unfavorable through at least mid-week, due to breezy to windy conditions Tuesday and Wednesday and we will need to monitor the threat for locally heavy rainfall over the next few days. Fortunately, ongoing drought conditions mean that any rainfall will be largely beneficial, as long as it doesn`t become excessive. Current 90th percentile rainfall accumulations peak around 3-4". Higher cloud cover, rainfall, and breezy winds will keep high temperatures below normal Tuesday and Wednesday, in the lower to mid- 70s. Thursday-Saturday...Uncertainty lingers late next week into the weekend in terms of precipitation chances, timing, and accumulations, as models diverge. However, strong high pressure lingers over the eastern US, maintaining at least breezy conditions and coastal concerns. For now, NBM PoPs show rain chances 40-60% lingering Thursday, before high pressure aloft keeps PoPs to 20-30% or less into the weekend. With diminishing rain chances, high temperatures creep back into the upper 70s to lower 80s through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 Periods of poor boating conditions due to ESE winds 15-20 kts and seas up to 6 ft linger today across the offshore waters. More favorable boating conditions return Sunday into Monday, as high pressure weakens and a cold front approaches the area. Winds diminish to 10-15 kts Sunday, before weakening further and veering offshore for a good portion of the day on Monday. Seas become 3-5 ft. However, increasing moisture will lead to higher rain and storm chances late weekend and into early next week. As the aforementioned front sags southward through the local waters into mid-week, strong high pressure develops over the eastern US. A tight pressure gradient will produce rapidly increasing winds Tuesday into Tuesday night, reaching gale-force gusts prior to sunrise Wednesday. Near-gale onshore winds then look to persist through at least mid-week. Needless to say, conditions will be hazardous to dangerous much of next week, as seas build to 12-16 ft. High coverage of onshore-moving showers and embedded storms will enhance the unfavorable conditions. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 118 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 Fairly quiet with persistence pattern for this TAF period. Mainly VFR with E/SE breezes 10-20 kt, gusting up to 25 kt in the afternoon hours. Shower chances are < 20%, too low to mention in TAFs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 82 66 84 65 / 10 0 40 40 MCO 84 67 86 67 / 10 0 50 30 MLB 81 69 82 66 / 10 0 40 30 VRB 82 68 83 66 / 10 10 30 30 LEE 87 66 88 66 / 10 0 40 30 SFB 85 66 87 66 / 10 0 50 30 ORL 85 67 87 67 / 10 0 50 30 FPR 82 67 83 65 / 10 10 40 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1264383 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:03 AM 04.Apr.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 158 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 157 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 - Widespread rainfall this weekend associated with a cold front - Below-normal temps through mid-week - Monitoring minor coastal flooding Saturday morning && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 157 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 Warm temperatures will continue one more day Saturday before the cold front ushers in below normal temperatures from Sunday through early next week. Rain chances will also return, but the forecast unfortunately remains cloudy, despite being in the domain of the high resolution models. The NBM is continuing to show storm total accumulations on the higher end closer to 2" while the high resolution models are showing storm total accumulations closer to the 1" mark. High uncertainty remains in the forecast with just how much rain we will see and who would get the most. Looking at the high resolution models, the best chances to get thunderstorms and heavier showers will be across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. Areas further east will have a lesser chance to see the convective showers, though stratiform showers remain likely Sunday. Still expecting generally 1-2" of rain areawide, but it appear like the total accumulations might be closer to the 1" mark with only a few areas seeing close to or just above 2" from Saturday through Monday. The caveat to the forecast could mean some people might get a more enjoyable less soggy Easter Sunday. Not to sound like a broken record, but the next 24 hours will be crucial to see how the atmosphere sets up prior to the arrival of the cold front. A cold front is expected to sweep across South Texas and bring back cooler temperatures. Along the with the cooler temperatures, rain chances also return. Relative humidity values in the wake of the front will remain above critical values. Therefore, elevated fire weather conditions are not expected. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 157 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 MVFR conditions are expected to prevail tonight through late this morning with the front approaching the area. Some periods of showers and thunderstorms will be likely along the front. VFR conditions will peak through at times though this will likely be brief. Winds are expected to be breezy as well especially near thunderstorms. Conditions will deteriorate once again to MVFR conditions through the evening into the night. && .MARINE... Issued at 157 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southeast breeze will develop Saturday morning before the winds back to the northeast Saturday night in the wake of the frontal passage. Winds Sunday will strengthen to fresh to strong levels (BF 5-6) through Sunday night before relaxing to moderate levels Monday night. Rain chances will increase Saturday night (70-90% chance) through Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 157 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 A cold front is expected to sweep across South Texas and bring back cooler temperatures. Along the with the cooler temperatures, rain chances also return. Relative humidity values in the wake of the front will remain above critical values. Therefore, elevated fire weather conditions are not expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 85 61 68 58 / 40 60 70 70 Victoria 84 57 68 54 / 60 50 40 40 Laredo 89 58 64 56 / 70 80 80 70 Alice 89 60 68 56 / 50 70 70 70 Rockport 83 62 73 59 / 30 60 70 60 Cotulla 84 57 65 56 / 70 50 60 50 Kingsville 89 60 67 56 / 40 70 80 70 Navy Corpus 80 64 70 61 / 30 70 80 70 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1264381 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:54 AM 04.Apr.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 243 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly rain free conditions hold today, then rain chances increase Sunday through midweek. - Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue. .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 Currently at the surface, a sprawling area of high pressure centered over the western Atlantic offshore of the Carolinas is ridging into the southeastern US and northern Gulf Coast, while a developing area of low pressure over the Midwest is dragging a cold front through the Southern Plains. The surface ridge is setting up east and southeast flow over the forecast area, which will give way to onshore flow with the afternoon sea breeze while keeping warm and stable conditions in place today. Temperatures will continue to run near record warm levels this weekend with minimal rain chances today. Moisture will build on Sunday ahead of the aforementioned front approaching from the northwest, allowing for some scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms. The front will move through the forecast area Monday and Monday night then lose momentum over southern Florida, keeping deep moisture in place through the middle of the week and resulting in elevated rain chances continuing through Thursday. The front will also knock down high temperatures into the mid 70s to around 80 Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, with morning lows in the mid 50s to upper 60s. Forecast uncertainty will increase during the second half of the week as a surface inverted trough develops Wednesday night or Thursday in the area of southern Florida. While some ensemble members keep this feature lingering over the Florida Peninsula through the end of the week, which would keep rain chances elevated, most solutions push it away to the northeast, resulting in low rain chances to end the week. For now, the official forecast will keep rain chances low, with temperatures building back up to near normal by the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 Mainly VFR conditions expected today, although a few patches of low stratus cannot be completely ruled out early this morning. East winds could give way to a limited onshore sea breeze at terminals along the coast this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 Atlantic high pressure will continue to ridge into the northeastern Gulf through the weekend, with east and southeast flow remaining less than 15 knots and turning onshore near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze. A cold front will move southeast into the waters by early next week, bringing winds up to Small Craft Exercise Caution levels by Monday night and to around Advisory levels Tuesday through the rest of the week as the front is reinforced by high pressure from the north. The system will also bring increased chances of thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday, causing locally higher winds and seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 No humidity concerns this weekend. High dispersion indices are expected this afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 88 68 87 68 / 0 0 30 20 FMY 89 68 88 67 / 10 0 50 30 GIF 88 67 89 67 / 0 0 60 30 SRQ 88 67 86 67 / 0 0 30 20 BKV 89 61 88 61 / 0 0 30 20 SPG 88 71 87 71 / 0 0 30 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1264382 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:54 AM 04.Apr.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 250 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the coastal waters from Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout from 11 PM tonight to 11 AM Monday. Today`s high temperatures have been increased. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Marginal risk of increased fire danger today. 2) Mostly dry with above normal temperatures today. 3) A cold front will push through the area on Sunday into early next week, bringing increasing rain chances, cooler temperatures, and the next best chance for marine headlines. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...NCFS burn ban remains in effect statewide until further notice. Winds will be a bit stronger than yesterday as the pressure gradient becomes pinched ahead of an approaching front. RHs will be the limiting factor with hi-res guidance showing min-RHs in the 45-50%+ range across the coastal plain this afternoon. Fire weather conditions may return next week behind the front, but this will hinge on rainfall amounts Sunday and Sunday night. KEY MESSAGE 2...Today will be our last round of mostly dry and above normal temperatures as high pressure continues to be anchored offshore. There`s a low end chance for some isolated diurnal showers this afternoon, but this will mainly be away from the immediate coast. High temperatures will be in the mid-80s inland and 70s to low-80s at the beaches with some inland areas flirting with records (see Climate Section). KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front will approach the area on Sunday and cross ENC late Sunday/early Monday. Rain chances will increase through the day on Sunday with the potential for a few thunderstorms both ahead of and along the front. Shear will be plentiful but instability will be fairly muted with hi-res guidance generally showing < 500 J/kg MLCAPE. SPC has outlined all of ENC in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather with the main hazard of concern being damaging wind gusts. QPF is 0.5-1" with locally higher amounts possible. Once the front is offshore, guidance continues to depict a low pressure system developing and traveling along it early next week. The low is expected to pass far enough offshore to keep the area mostly dry through mid-week. Low level thickness values and N-NE flow behind the front will lead to below normal temps with highs mostly in the 60s before warming back into the 70s by late week. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions expected to prevail through the TAF period with upper ridging and sfc high pressure continuing to be centered offshore. Guidance does show low probabilities for seeing shallow fog development near southern coastal sections (around 20-30% at EWN and OAJ) between 8-12z this morning if winds decouple sufficiently, though impacts should be minimal. Expect S to SW winds with gusts around 15-20 kt and diurnal few-sct cumulus clouds late morning and afternoon. VFR prevails tonight with sufficient mixing precluding fog development as gradients tighten ahead of an approaching cold front. Outlook: A cold front will approach the area Sunday and push through Sunday evening bringing a chance for sub-VFR conditions in showers and thunderstorms, with the best chances for sub-VFR from Sunday evening into the pre-dawn hours Monday. Moderate SW winds continue Sunday ahead of the front with gusts around 20-25kt expected. Pred VFR expected Monday through Wednesday with high pressure over the area, through a dry reinforcing cold front will push through the area Tuesday. && .MARINE... SSW winds at 10-15 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt and 3-4 ft seas will persist through this afternoon. Tonight, the gradient will tighten ahead of an approaching cold front. SW winds will increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt and 3-5 ft seas. Conditions will continue to deteriorate through Sunday with SW winds peaking in the afternoon at 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt and seas building to 4-6 ft. The cold front will cross the waters late Sunday/early Monday and veer the winds to the north. The northerly surge behind the front will be short-lived with gusts dropping below 25 kt by early Monday afternoon. Elevated seas, however, may linger a bit longer across the outer central waters. Given the above, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the coastal waters from Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout and is in effect from 11 PM tonight to 11 AM Monday. SCAs were not yet issued for remaining marine zones given that those conditions won`t deteriorate until Sunday morning, but headlines will likely be needed with future updates. This front will produce showers and thunderstorms, some of which could produce strong wind gusts. Outlook: Once SCAs drop on Monday, we should remain headline free until late Tuesday when the next front is expected to pass. The latest forecast has NE winds at 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30+ kt and 5-9 ft seas Tuesday night through Wednesday. Wave heights will slightly improve on Thursday but will remain elevated through the rest of the week. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for 4/4 (Saturday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1934 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1945 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1967 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/2007 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/1934 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 89/1963 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154-156. && $$ |
| #1264380 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 AM 04.Apr.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 235 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Rain chances for today have lowered slightly. Key Message 2 was added to address the rip current threat on Sunday. The Aviation Section was updated for the 06Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Warm temperatures and minimal rain chances today. - 2) Moderate risk for rip currents for all area beaches on Sunday. - 3) A cold front will bring increased rain chances Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, followed by cooler temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Warm temperatures and minimal rain chances today. At the surface high pressure centered over Bermuda will build into the region from the east, yielding an onshore flow in the lower levels. Aloft, southwesterly flow will dominate as a mid-level trough treks eastward across the Midwestern states. There are very low chances that the onshore flow in the morning hours could result in a weak shower impacting the coastal counties early this morning, especially along Charleston County where the NAM and the HRRR show some weak showers developing. Confidence levels in these showers developing is very low, so the forecast does not explicitly include rain at this time. A progressive sea breeze is expected today, pushing inland of I-95 around noon/1 PM. Any shower/tstorm activity in the afternoon will be across inland locations. Temperatures this afternoon will once again reach into the low 80s, with some mid 80s across inland SE GA. KEY MESSAGE 2: Moderate risk for rip currents for all area beaches on Sunday. With onshore flow and steady waves, there is a low risk for rip currents at all area beaches for today. For Sunday, increasing swells with 3 to 4 foot breaker waves and winds out of the south- southwest will result in a moderate risk for rip currents at all beaches. KEY MESSAGE 3: A cold front will bring increased rain chances Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, followed by cooler temperatures. A broad mid-level trough accompanied by a cold front at the surface will move across the eastern U.S. late this weekend into early next week, bringing a chance for light rain and ushering in cooler temperatures. However, before the front arrives, expect temperatures to remain well above-normal given low-level temperature fields above the 90th percentile per the Ensemble Situational Awareness Tables (ESATs), resulting in afternoon highs in the lower to mid 80s across the region, though areas along the coast will likely stay in the upper 70s. Can`t fully rule out some weak and isolated showers during the morning and afternoon given the on-going warm-air advection at 850mb, though a peek at a few of the long-range high resolution convection allowing models are suggesting a dry forecast for the morning hours. While wind fields do look to gradually increase, probabilities for 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE in the NBM have risen slightly into the 20-30% range, which looks to be remain representative from the deterministic MUCAPE profiles for Sunday afternoon. This looks to keep the threat for severe weather on the lower end, with the various AI/ML output similarly suggesting a low threat for severe weather, highest across Charleston and Berkeley counties where SPC has placed a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5). In regard to precipitation amounts, despite overall moisture being plentiful with ESATs showing precipitable water values AOA 1.5" and above the 90th percentile wrt climatology, the forcing mechanism from this system looks to be fairly weak. Thus, most guidance only supports accumulations less than 0.5 inch, though most will likely see less than a 0.25 inches. Thus, do not expect to see any significant improvements to the ongoing drought conditions at this time. Notably cooler temperatures look to return Monday in the wake of FROPA, with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to 70s continuing into the middle of next week. A secondary mid-level wave may dive across the southeast CONUS late Monday into Tuesday, resulting in a weak low pressure and additional rain chances. However, model certainty with this feature remains poor, making it difficult to put too much confidence behind any one solution just yet. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Prevailing VFR through the 06Z TAF period at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV. Some shallow ground could develop near KSAV just before daybreak and possibly allow for a brief period of MVFR vsbys, but no significant impacts are expected. There is a low threat of some weak showers impacting KCHS/KJZI this morning, however confidence levels were too low to include mention at this time. This afternoon the main focus for any precipitation is west of the terminals. Extended Aviation Outlook: There will be increased chances for flight restrictions associated with FROPA Sunday into early Monday. && .MARINE... Through tonight: Conditions across the marine zones will remain sub-Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. Sunday through Thursday: A cold front will then approach from the west-northwest on Sunday, moving through the waters Sunday night with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Expect a surge in winds and seas behind the front early morning Monday, which will likely necessitate the need for Small Craft Advisories across most of our coastal waters throughout portions of the day. Surface high pressure builds to our north Tuesday and could persist into the later half of next week, leading to a period of breezy winds and hazardous seas. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1264379 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 AM 04.Apr.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 232 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. The Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms has expanded slightly. The main threat remaining isolated damaging wind gusts. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) High temperature records may be challenged today under mostly sunny skies. 2) A stronger cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or thunderstorms Easter Sunday. There is a Marginal (Level 1/5) Risk for severe weather across the eastern half of the area, with the main threat being isolated damaging wind gusts. 3) Temperatures behind the cold front will trend near or slightly below average early next week with the potential for frost/freeze headlines. The coldest morning looks to be Wednesday, with widespread lows around freezing possible away from the coast. && .DISCUSSION... As of 230 AM EST Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...High temperature records may be challenged today under mostly sunny skies. High pressure both at the surface and aloft remains centered over the central Atlantic Ocean along with surface low pressure to the northeast of the area. A stronger low pressure system aloft over the Northern Plains slides eastward with an accompanying surface low over the Great Lakes region. The position of these features will allow for continued SW flow and warm temperatures. Highs today may challenge previous records, although are currently forecast to fall just short. A rogue shower or storm cannot be ruled out this afternoon, but confidence is very low at this time. KEY MESSAGE 2...A stronger cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or thunderstorms Easter Sunday. There is a Marginal (Level 1/5) Risk for severe weather across the eastern half of the area, with the main threat being isolated damaging wind gusts. A low pressure system will advance NE across the Great Lakes Region over the weekend and drag a strong cold front through the area late Sunday afternoon into the first part of Sunday night. Showers and isolated tstms will form west of the mountains along a pre-frontal trough on Saturday, before crossing the mountains Saturday night- Sunday AM. The latest CAMs continue to bring the precipitation into the area late Sunday morning for the NW portions to early afternoon for central portions and late afternoon for the SE portions. With the timing of the convection, there will be a rather large temperature gradient for the highs on Sunday with the NW seeing highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and the SE seeing highs in the upper 70s to near 80F. The latest guidance does hint towards more moisture returns to the area ahead of the front with dewpoints in the low 60s to near 65F. This could bring a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE across the eastern half of the FA. This could result in some strong to severe thunderstorms. SPC maintains the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) with the front, now expanded slightly to include the eastern half of the FA, where the highest instability is likely. The main threat with any storms would be isolated damaging wind gusts, as wind profiles look to be largely unidirectional and poor lapse rates. Areal average rainfall totals look to be 0.25-0.50" with locally higher amounts in storms. While totals of ~1" are unlikely, any rain is welcome, as a large majority of the area is under a moderate drought. Additionally, ahead of and behind the front, winds will be gusty to 25-30 mph during the day Sunday. KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures behind the cold front will trend near or slightly below average early next week with the potential for frost/freeze headlines. The coldest morning looks to be Wednesday, with widespread lows around freezing possible away from the coast. Temperatures will trend closer to average or below average early next week in the wake of the front. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be in the 60s, with Monday being slightly warmer in the mid 60s. A secondary front is progged to drop south through the area Tuesday, providing a reinforcing shot of CAA. Strong high pressure builds to the north of the area by midweek which will result in cooler conditions on Wednesday with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s due to the NE flow. There will be potential for frost or freeze headlines both Tuesday night-Wednesday AM and Wednesday night- Thursday AM for areas where the growing season has started with temperatures falling back into the 30s. At this time, Wednesday morning looks to have the highest potential for a freeze, with widespread lows around freezing possible depending on how much boundary layer decoupling we see. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions prevail for the 06z/04 TAF period. SW winds of 5-10 kt are expected overnight, increasing during the day to 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Winds will likely remain ~10kt overnight Saturday. Mainly CU are expected during the day with increasing clouds from west to east late in the forecast period. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through Saturday night. There`s a low chance of isolated showers Saturday afternoon and evening. Widespread showers and possible flight restrictions are expected Sunday along a stronger cold front. A few thunderstorms are possible, and there is a low chance for a strong or severe storm. && .MARINE... As of 255 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Primarily sub-SCA marine conditions continue through Saturday. - SCAs likely Saturday night through Sunday night both ahead of and behind a cold front. - Another cold front will likely bring additional SCA conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure is centered off the Southeast coast this afternoon. The backdoor cold front that resulted in some marine fog across the northern tier of the marine area this morning has lifted N of the area. The wind is generally SSW 10-15kt, and occasionally up to 15- 20kt across the coastal waters. Seas are 3-4ft, with ~2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The pressure gradient tightens some tonight but a SSW wind should primarily remain 15-20kt for the coastal waters and 10- 15kt elsewhere, with occasional gusts up to 25kt out near 20nm. Seas should mainly be 3-4ft. Wave guidance is showing up to 5ft out near 20nm N of Chincoteague. However, this does tend to run a little high in SSW flow so no SCAs have been issued given the marginal nature of the event. SCAs still appear more likely from late Saturday night through Monday morning, S-SW winds increase to ~20 kt with gusts of ~25 kt by late Saturday night due to a tightening pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front. That front crosses the waters late Sunday afternoon through late Sunday evening, with a period of low-end SCAs with N-NW winds likely Sun night-Mon AM with CAA following the FROPA. A secondary cold front will likely bring additional SCAs to the waters Tuesday night-Wednesday. && .CLIMATE... Record highs for today, 4/4: Richmond: Record High: Sat (4/4) 87/2011 Norfolk: Record High: Sat (4/4) 86/2025 Salisbury: Record High: Sat (4/4) 83/1999 Elizabeth City: Record High: Sat (4/4) 88/2025 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654. && $$ |
| #1264377 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 AM 04.Apr.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 150 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion with the 06Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Unseasonable Warmth Continues Through the Weekend. - 2) Cold Front Brings Showers and Storms Sunday Afternoon and Night. - 3) Much Cooler Weather Expected Monday Through Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1...Unseasonable Warmth Continues Through the Weekend. Ridging offshore continues to keep the warmth around throughout the weekend. Highs in the lower 80s inland, mid 70s at the coast. Plenty of sunshine expected today, with clouds increasing tonight and into Sunday ahead of the next frontal system. Lows Saturday night in the lower 60s. .KEY MESSAGE 2...Cold Front Brings Showers and Storms Sunday Afternoon and Night. All eyes on the cold front that will sweep through the area Sunday night. A line of showers with a few embedded storms will move ahead of this front, edging into the Pee Dee region by Sunday afternoon, and pushing offshore sometime Sunday night. Best dynamics are still well north of the area, meaning that the local atmospheric energy is just not too favorable for severe weather. We`re finally within the range of the HREF, which admittedly, has better instability than what has been advertised by the global ensembles recently. That supports more storm growth, which given the heating, makes sense. Yet, lapse rates are still quite weak, and the shear and helicity parameters don`t look terribly impressive. Bulk shear still lingers in the 25-30 kt range. Corfidi downshear vectors may eclipse 50 kts, which is about the only favorable damaging wind parameter here, but the overall setup just doesn`t look too sporty. Rainfall amounts have come up a bit, perhaps due to the HREF sniffing out more instability to work with. Even so, rainfall amounts up to 0.75" won`t do anything for the ongoing drought concerns. .KEY MESSAGE 3...Much Cooler Weather Expected Monday Through Wednesday. Front will be offshore by Monday morning, and much cooler, drier air will settle into the area. Highs Monday and Tuesday may struggle to hit 70 in some spots, which lingers just below normal for early April. Canadian high pressure moves into the Northeast Wednesday, essentially allowing for a reinforcing cold front to move through. As a result, highs Wednesday only get into the mid 60s. Lows drop into the 40s Monday night through Wednesday night, with Tuesday night appearing to be the chilliest (inland areas may bottom out right at 40 degrees). While that`s cold by April standards, that`s not in frost territory. Temperatures aside, it appears to be too dry, too windy, or both, for any frost concerns among each of these nights. High pressure moves offshore by Thursday, allowing for air mass modification to begin. Look for temperatures to warm back up above normal by late next week and into the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR to start off the 24 hr 06Z TAF issuance period. However, fog and/or low stratus to affect the FLO/LBT terminals leading up to and just after sunrise Sat. At this point will apply MVFR fog/stratus conditions and may include tempo groups for IFR at press time. Spotty rainfall earlier, may further increase the fog possibility across the inland terminals. And, with the LLJ progged not as strong as previous nights, should allow winds to decouple(calm) much easier. Diurnal cu to once again affect the local terminals today, early on for the coastal terminals prior to the sea breeze development, becoming SKC in its wake as it pushes inland. Isolated showers again possible this aftn/evening west of a LBT-FLO line. At this time will not include in their TAFs. Winds generally calm this morning becoming SSE-SSW AOB 10 kt during the day except in the wake of the inland progressing sea breeze, 10-15 kt this aftn into this evening. Extended Forecast...Mainly VFR conditions are expected, with the exception possible flight restrictions late Sun into Sun night as a cold front moves through with showers/storms accompanying it. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Sfc ridging will extend across the area waters from the center of high pressure located well east and offshore from the Carolinas this period. The sfc pg rather loose today and begins to tighten-some later tonight. Southerly winds AOB 10 kt to dominate today, 10-15 kt tonight. The gradient of SSTs has been increasing across the area waters as the persistent SE-S onshore winds the past week has pushed the west wall of the gulf stream landward-some. As a result, the SSW LLJ later tonight could produce a few gusts to 20 kt in those "warmer" waters 15 to 20 nm out. Seas will be dominated by that 2 to 4 foot SE swell running at 7 to 9 second periods. Locally driven wind chop expected on top of this swell nearshore due to an active aftn/evening sea breeze. Sunday through Wednesday...Gradient winds increase ahead of the cold front expected Sunday night. Southwesterly winds gust over 20 kts Sunday, and perhaps even up to 25 kts at times. It does not appear consistent enough to warrant a Small Craft Advisory at this time, but this may need to be monitored. Seas increase up to 3-5 ft. The front moves through the coastal waters Sunday night, and the winds veer to the west, and then to the northeast by Monday morning. Gradient develops a secondary tightening after the frontal passage, perhaps stronger this time around. Seas actually dip slightly towards 2-4 ft, but the wind gusts edge up towards advisory conditions a bit more frequently. May need to consider an advisory Monday, though it would be rather brief (6 hours or so). Winds finally start dropping off Monday evening, down towards 10 kts out of the northeast. Seas continue to come down towards 2-3 ft. By late Tuesday, a dry front will start to approach the waters, which brings a considerably stronger increase in the gradient winds. Winds and seas won`t have a problem reaching advisory conditions. Some data suggests frequent gales Wednesday, which will need monitoring in the coming days. Seas may escalate to 3-5 ft at the coast, and 6-8 ft out 20 nm from shore. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1264378 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 AM 04.Apr.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1242 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 - A HIGH risk of rip currents continues through the weekend for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. - Next chance for meaningful rain will accompany a cold front this weekend, but it will not be a drought-busting rain. - A few rounds of small craft advisory-level conditions (gusts near gale-force) are possible over the Gulf and local bays/sounds Sunday through much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 Finally a shot at some solid rain Saturday and Sunday as the upper ridge finally breaks down. Subsidence should hold on enough through the day today as the ridge slowly retreats eastward and the upper trough nudges east. By late afternoon and into the evening the cold front associated with the upper trough will slowly meander through central Mississippi and into our area between sunset and midnight. Given the upper trough orientation and the trough lifting out the front will not be moving too quickly slowly making its way to the I- 65 corridor by around sunrise on Sunday. Expect a weakening line of showers and a isolated thunderstorm to accompany the front as it moves through the area. Rain should end by mid-afternoon as drier air quickly moves into the area on the back of a stiff northerly wind. Unfortunately, even with the slow moving front it will barely be enough rain to put a dent into the ongoing drought conditions. Some locations may be able to squeak out an quick inch or two of rain but soils will quickly absorb that. By Sunday night, the front should push offshore giving way to a significantly drier and cooler week next week. Heck we might even see lows in the 40s as early spring makes one last ditch effort before summer kicks in. Some patchy fog will be possible over the next couple of morning mainly along and east of I-65 where the influences of the upper ridge and moisture overlap the best. While we do not expect any dense fog at this time, there are enough signals to at least support some patchy fog reducing visibilities to around 1 mile or less in some spots. As always continue to use caution when driving with fog. Beach Hazards... A HIGH risk of rip currents will likely continue through Sunday as a moderate onshore flow should persist. While the winds will not be strong, there should be enough of a fetch and increasingly strong tides falling during the afternoons to result in likely hazardous swimming conditions and rip currents. Be sure to continue to swim near lifeguards. BB-8 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 MVFR to IFR ceilings will prevail through much of the night with LIFR ceilings possible in the pre-dawn hours. Visibility may fall to IFR to LIFR levels across interior south central Alabama but should not impact any of the coastal terminals. Winds will remain light out of the south. Ceilings will gradually improve through the morning with to MVFR to VFR conditions expected by mid-day. 07/mb && .MARINE... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 A light to moderate onshore flow prevails through Sunday afternoon. Winds quickly turn northerly through the afternoon and evening on Sunday behind a cold front. A moderate to strong offshore flow persists through Monday before winds gradually turn easterly on Tuesday. Expect a few rounds of small craft advisory-level conditions next week behind the front with gusts nearing gale force possible. BB-8 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 83 65 75 53 / 40 70 80 20 Pensacola 79 67 75 56 / 30 30 80 30 Destin 77 67 75 57 / 20 20 70 40 Evergreen 85 62 77 49 / 40 50 90 10 Waynesboro 85 59 71 50 / 60 80 70 10 Camden 85 61 71 48 / 50 70 80 10 Crestview 85 62 79 51 / 30 20 80 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1264376 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 AM 04.Apr.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 142 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 135 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 - Dangerous rip currents will continue at all Atlantic beaches through the weekend. - A moderate to strong easterly breeze may bring periods of hazardous conditions to the Atlantic and Biscayne Bay waters through Saturday. - Chances for a more unsettled pattern increasing for next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 135 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 The surface high pressure will preside over South Florida for one more day before beginning to break down on Sunday, maintaining the brisk and steady easterly flow across the region. The development of diurnal sea breeze circulations and diurnal heating will continue to be the primary influencers in some isolated shower activity and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms. 500mb temperatures are still very cold for this time of year (-11 to -12C), which will support steeper mid-level lapse rates that can cause a core or two to become taller and result in downdraft potential given the drier air aloft and an inverted-V being present on many of the hi-res model soundings. Nevertheless, with high pressure dominance this is expected to be an extremely isolated threat as it relates to storm potential. With the ongoing easterly regime, highest rain chances are likely to favor the Gulf coast areas during the afternoon hours with chances for some isolated activity in the morning hours near the Atlantic coast. For the second half of the weekend, a more unsettled pattern begins to take shape. The previously mentioned robust trough traversing across the central U.S. will approach and advect across the Eastern Seaboard by the end of day on Sunday. An attendant cold front to this trough will be advecting southwards along the leading edge of the trough axis, but will start waning in strength as it mixes with a warmer environment in Northern Florida. However, we will begin to see some deeper moisture return occurring both from the tropics of the Caribbean and from the front forcing some moisture from the central U.S. southwards. All in all, PWATs rise to around 1.3-1.6" for Sunday afternoon and evening when the frontal boundary starts to slow down in the vicinity of northern Florida. As the deeper moisture starts to settle in, the potential for enhanced convection will be along the sea breezes and any boundary collisions (sea breezes and outflows) on Sunday. Convective parameters are not popping out in a way that supports much severe activity, but there is always a chance for one or two storms to become stronger than the rest, particularly among boundary collisions. These collisions are most likely to occur over interior and Gulf coast areas as easterly flow continues for most of Sunday, which is where the highest PoPs (50-60%) are on Sunday. East coast metro areas are closer to 40%. High temperatures for the next couple of days will still be in the 80s with the hotter temperatures (upper 80s) being felt across the Gulf coast areas under the persistent easterly wind regime. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 135 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 Heading into the new week, the large synoptic trough continues to swing through the Eastern Seaboard while the aforementioned frontal boundary washes out and begins to sag more southwards. Long-range guidance still is uncertain in regards to how far south the boundary may get as some ensemble suites have it pushing through as a weak front while others have the boundary stalling completely around the Central Florida area. Regardless of the solution, the overall results will not differ a ton in terms of overall rain chances as deeper moisture pools across the region and the nearby presence of the frontal boundary will help provide extra instability for continued unsettled conditions on Monday. By mid-week, an increasingly active and wet pattern has the potential to take shape, although the potential range of solutions still very pretty drastically. On the large scale, a secondary shortwave trough is anticipated to advect across the Gulf and towards the Florida Peninsula that will provide extra forcing for ascent via consistent positive vorticity advection. This will be in tandem with the diurnal sea breeze circulations and enhanced jet stream dynamics as the subtropical jet streams across Florida and increases divergence aloft. Therefore, with multiple forcing mechanisms and deep moisture anticipated to pool over South Florida (PWATs rising to 1.5-1.8 inches or higher), the potential exists for some widespread rainfall heading towards the middle of the week. Total QPF ranges will have to be ironed out over the next several days, but all in all this time frame is trending to be wetter than normal. The troughing pattern could linger into the end of the week as well, keeping the wetter and more unsettled pattern in place although this being at the tail end of the forecast period also creates the most uncertainty. High temperatures are expected in the low to mid 80s on Monday with exception for the upper 80s for Gulf coast metro areas. By Tuesday and into the mid-week time frame, temperatures may fall back into the upper 70s for many areas for a couple of days as the front stalls and rain cooled air occurs. Temperatures are then likely to rebound for the end of next week.&& .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 135 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 VFR prevails for the 06Z TAF period. Gusty easterly winds will continue for another day today with frequent gusts to 20-25 kts. A few quick moving isolated SHRA are also possible through the day, but should not cause much impact. && .MARINE... Issued at 135 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 A fresh to strong easterly breeze will continue across the Atlantic waters through today and tonight before starting to decrease on Sunday. During this same time frame, a moderate breeze will be observed over the Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic waters and Biscayne Bay through this evening due to sustained winds expected at 20-25 kts. A few showers are possible today with increasing rain chances beginning Sunday and into next week. Seas across the Atlantic waters will mainly be in the 4-6 ft range while Gulf seas are forecast to remain in the 2-3 ft range. && .BEACHES... Issued at 135 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 The high risk for dangerous rip currents will continue at all Atlantic beaches through this weekend as gusty onshore winds persist. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 82 72 82 71 / 30 20 40 20 West Kendall 84 68 84 67 / 20 20 40 20 Opa-Locka 83 71 84 70 / 20 20 50 20 Homestead 83 72 82 71 / 20 20 40 20 Fort Lauderdale 80 72 80 71 / 20 30 50 20 N Ft Lauderdale 80 72 80 71 / 30 30 50 20 Pembroke Pines 84 72 85 71 / 20 20 50 20 West Palm Beach 81 70 81 70 / 20 20 40 20 Boca Raton 80 71 81 71 / 30 30 50 20 Naples 88 68 86 68 / 20 0 50 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ630. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1264375 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 AM 04.Apr.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 128 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the forecast. There remains a low-end threat for damaging thunderstorm wind gusts Sunday afternoon and evening across SE VA/NE NC. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well above average temperatures continue through Saturday. 2) A stronger cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or thunderstorms Easter Sunday. There is a Marginal (Level 1/5) Risk for severe weather across SE VA/NE NC, with the main threat being isolated damaging wind gusts. 3) Temperatures behind the cold front will trend near or slightly below average early next week with the potential for frost/freeze headlines. The coldest morning looks to be Wednesday, with widespread lows around freezing possible away from the coast. && .DISCUSSION... As of 255 PM EST Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Well above average temperatures continue through Saturday. High pressure at the sfc and aloft is centered well offshore this afternoon, and the backdoor cold front that bisected the area last night has retreated well to our north. Fog has lifted, with widespread 70s-lower 80s across the area this afternoon under partly cloudy skies. The well above average temperatures will continue through Saturday. While highs will fall short of records today, some records may be challenged on Saturday. A rogue shower/tstm cannot be ruled out across the VA Piedmont Saturday aftn/evening, but confidence remains low attm. KEY MESSAGE 2...A stronger cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or thunderstorms Easter Sunday. There is a Marginal (Level 1/5) Risk for severe weather across SE VA/NE NC, with the main threat being isolated damaging wind gusts. A low pressure system will advance NE across the Great Lakes Region over the weekend and drag a strong cold front through the area late Sunday afternoon into the first part of Sunday night. Showers and isolated tstms will form west of the mountains along a pre-frontal trough on Saturday, before crossing the mountains Saturday night- Sunday AM. Guidance continues to show the precipitation arriving in the Piedmont late Sunday morning, before crossing the remainder of the area Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening. Moisture return ahead of the front will be meager, with dew pts only expected to be in the upper 50s-around 60F Sunday afternoon ahead of the front. With the timing of the convection, a rather large temperature gradient for the highs on Sunday will be evident with the NW seeing highs in the low to mid 70s and the SE in the upper 70s to near 80F. Even with the meager moisture return, a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE is possible across SE VA and NE NC. Though, the amount of instability (and severe wx potential) will be dependent on how high dew pts can get ahead of that front. Most of the models show little to no instability with just showers and perhaps an isolated tstm, though a minority of them (especially 12z RRFS) show lower 60s dew pts ahead of the convection with a bit more potential for stronger storms in the SE. With a largely unidirectional wind profile, some speed shear, and poor lapse rates, isolated damaging wind gusts would be the main threat if we manage to get a stronger storm or two. SPC has maintained the Marginal (Level 1/5) Risk for severe wx in SE VA/NE NC. Areal average rainfall totals look to be 0.25-0.50" with locally higher amounts in storms. While totals of ~1" are unlikely, any rain is welcome, as a large majority of the area is under a moderate drought. Additionally, ahead of and behind the front, winds will be gusty to 25-30 mph during the day Sunday. KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures behind the cold front will trend near or slightly below average early next week with the potential for frost/freeze headlines. The coldest morning looks to be Wednesday, with widespread lows around freezing possible away from the coast. Temperatures will trend closer to average or below average early next week in the wake of the front. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be in the 60s. A secondary front is progged to drop south through the area Tuesday, providing a reinforcing shot of CAA. High pressure builds to the north of the area by midweek which will result in cooler conditions on Wednesday with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s due to the NE flow. There will be potential for frost or freeze headlines both Tuesday night-Wednesday AM and Wednesday night- Thursday AM for areas where the growing season has started with temperatures falling back into the 30s. At this time, Wednesday morning looks to have the highest potential for a freeze, with widespread lows around freezing possible depending on how much boundary layer decoupling we see. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions prevail for the 06z/04 TAF period. SW winds of 5-10 kt are expected overnight, increasing during the day to 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Winds will likely remain ~10kt overnight Saturday. Mainly CU are expected during the day with increasing clouds from west to east late in the forecast period. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through Saturday night. There`s a low chance of isolated showers Saturday afternoon and evening. Widespread showers and possible flight restrictions are expected Sunday along a stronger cold front. A few thunderstorms are possible, and there is a low chance for a strong or severe storm. && .MARINE... As of 255 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Primarily sub-SCA marine conditions continue through Saturday. - SCAs likely Saturday night through Sunday night both ahead of and behind a cold front. - Another cold front will likely bring additional SCA conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure is centered off the Southeast coast this afternoon. The backdoor cold front that resulted in some marine fog across the northern tier of the marine area this morning has lifted N of the area. The wind is generally SSW 10-15kt, and occasionally up to 15- 20kt across the coastal waters. Seas are 3-4ft, with ~2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The pressure gradient tightens some tonight but a SSW wind should primarily remain 15-20kt for the coastal waters and 10- 15kt elsewhere, with occasional gusts up to 25kt out near 20nm. Seas should mainly be 3-4ft. Wave guidance is showing up to 5ft out near 20nm N of Chincoteague. However, this does tend to run a little high in SSW flow so no SCAs have been issued given the marginal nature of the event. SCAs still appear more likely from late Saturday night through Monday morning, S-SW winds increase to ~20 kt with gusts of ~25 kt by late Saturday night due to a tightening pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front. That front crosses the waters late Sunday afternoon through late Sunday evening, with a period of low-end SCAs with N-NW winds likely Sun night-Mon AM with CAA following the FROPA. A secondary cold front will likely bring additional SCAs to the waters Tuesday night-Wednesday. && .CLIMATE... Record highs through Saturday, 4/4: Richmond: Record High: Fri (4/3) 93/1963 Sat (4/4) 87/2011 Norfolk: Record High: Fri (4/3) 91/1963 Sat (4/4) 86/2025 Salisbury: Record High: Fri (4/3) 86/1963 Sat (4/4) 83/1999 Elizabeth City: Record High: Fri (4/3) 89/1967 Sat (4/4) 88/2025 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1264374 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 AM 04.Apr.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - A slow moving cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms today. A few heavier thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. - Much cooler and breezy conditions expected Easter Sunday, with rain showers possibly lingering into the morning and afternoon hours in our southern and coastal counties. - Risk of moderate to strong rip currents today into the weekend. - Gradual warm-up expected second half of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 A rather dynamic pattern has set up over central CONUS tonight. As of 11PM, a robust mid/upper low is centered over the Dakotas. Ahead of the low exists a strong southwesterly and diffluent jet aloft, providing the UL divergence to sustain a sfc low over Iowa. The low`s trailing cold front extends down the plains into northern Texas. The highly sheared and diffluent flow aloft is inducing deep convection along the frontal boundary. This front will push southward into our region on Saturday, increasing the chance of showers and thunderstorms by afternoon (though some scattered activity is expected in the morning). The most favorable dynamics for deep convection will remain north of our region. That being said, the flow aloft will not be short of embedded vort maxes. The lift from these vorticity maxima and the sfc convergence from the front, coupled with high PWATs pooling northward from the Gulf could result in locally heavy showers and thunderstorms. A severe thunderstorm capable of damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Localized flooding will also be a possibility. Therefore, SPC has kept our area in a Level 1 of 5 severe weather threat, while WPC continues to place our region in a Level 1 of 5 excessive rainfall risk. Regarding timing, the best chance of heavier showers and thunderstorms is during the afternoon hours across our northern counties, while areas farther south experience their highest thunderstorm risk late in the afternoon and into the evening. Easter Sunday is unfortunately a tricky forecast. The front is expected to push southward towards the coast and eventually offshore. But lingering shower activity could extend into Easter, especially south of I-10. Relative to our last update, I gave PoPs a little bit of boost for areas south of I-10 on Sunday. This is mostly due to the continued parade of vort maxes providing lift to the Southeast Texas atmosphere. The other tricky aspect about Sunday is the temperatures. With enough clouds and CAA, I could see temperatures being 5-10 degrees colder in some areas. For now, I`m going with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to near 70. Monday is looking mostly dry with highs in the 70s. But we cannot rule out lingering showers near the coast and offshore. As for the longer range, a strong Canadian high pressure system will dig southward over E CONUS by Tuesday and Wednesday. Sometimes you have to watch for overperforming backdoor cold fronts in these situations. But at this time, we are thinking that the high will mostly enhance LL onshore flow. This will tend to gradually increase temperatures and humidity by the second half of the week. In addition, more pesky vorticity maxima may add lift to the equation by week`s end. Therefore, rain chances begin to increase again by Thursday and especially Friday. Self && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 Showers are beginning to cease this evening with ground observations suggesting that precip is very light and or evaporating before reaching the ground. MVFR CIGS should fill in across SE Texas this evening. Model guidance has backed down slightly on IFR potential, though it would still be prudent to plan for at least a brief period of IFR CIGs during the early morning hours of Saturday. Showers should develop again over the area Saturday morning with coverage growing ahead of an approaching cold front. This front should reach the College Station area earlier in the afternoon, then the Houston area late in the afternoon before pushing off the coast in the evening. Thunderstorms are anticipated ahead of and along the front, some of which could become severe, producing damaging wind gusts and low visibility from heavy rainfall. Light showers are expected to linger in the wake of the cold front, mainly along and south of the I-10 corridor. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 Moderate southeast flow and enhanced southeasterly swell/waves should decrease somewhat as a cold front approaches today. Scattered shower activity is possible today, with a better chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening through Sunday as the front pushes offshore. Winds will increase from the north to northeast on Sunday, remaining elevated through Monday. Sustained winds over 20 knots with gusts up to around 30 knots are expected, especially over the Gulf. Seas will likely build as a result, easily reaching 4-6 feet nearshore and 6-9 feet offshore. Seas may be higher at times. The prospect of offshore thunderstorms complicates Sunday`s winds forecast. Thunderstorms can result in higher winds that extend far from the parent storm. Showers and storms may linger into Monday. Winds weaken and veer east by Tuesday, before veering southeast by Wednesday. Southeasterly flow is expected to increase later in the week. This would likely be accompanied by corresponding increases in the swell. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 85 70 77 54 / 20 30 80 40 Houston (IAH) 84 72 82 60 / 20 20 70 70 Galveston (GLS) 81 73 79 65 / 30 10 40 80 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Saturday afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ |
| #1264372 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:27 AM 04.Apr.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1221 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1151 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 - Warm with higher shower and thunderstorm chances today into Sunday. There is the potential for severe weather as well as locally heavy rainfall mainly starting around noon into tonight ahead of a cold frontal passage Sunday. - Winds will remain elevated for marine areas today. Northerly winds behind a cold front on Sunday will likely necessitate Small Craft Advisories, which could continue through early next week. - A prolonged period of easterly winds next week could increase the coastal flood threat on east facing shorelines by mid week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 All areas should get at least some rainfall today and tonight. Ranges will also be quite strong in isolated locations and could range from a half inch to 6+" in a short distance. One of these locations looks to be, within an area or around and area, between BTR and Hammond northward to the state line. This is also where the slight risk of excessive rainfall is located for today. This looks warranted and will not downplay this risk level. The next thing would be severe wx possibilities. The numbers are not high for getting severe storms but they do fall within criteria, so again there is the potential for a strong/severe storm to exist mainly through the daylight hours today into the evening. The main issues with any severe storms will be hail and damaging winds. SPC has a marginal risk in play at the moment and this looks warranted as well. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Friday night) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 The frontal boundary will continue to move downstream. The globals are in a bit better alignment, at least with the 12z ECM and 18z GFS showing roughly the same location of the front and associated QPF signal. This is a slight nudge to agreement with a bit drier solution for Monday vs the previous runs on the GFS/GEFS. Putting more faith in the drier solution for Monday does also help with temperatures forecasts as before the GFS trended a bit cooler due to clouds and rain. With this nearing agreement we can also assume a bit warmer across the region with temperatures Monday afternoon in the upper 60s or lower 70s expected. The front should remain locked into the H5 flow over the central Gulf through mid to late week. Within the nearly zonal mid/upper flow, there is a shortwave that develops and moves eastward over the Gulf allowing for shower and storm development in closer proximity to the front. That said, a developing wave over northern Mexico late Wednesday and into Thursday will help the surface feature lift northward again toward our region as a warm front, which may kick off a few showers over our southern tier as the long term period comes to an end late next week. Overall, rainfall chances are to be rather limited. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 IFR to MVFR cigs will lift to VFR cigs by mid to late morning. Cigs will be in all day for most areas but should remain VFR through evening. Cigs will fall to IFR by late evening and remain through sunrise Sunday. Vis should remain at VFR levels unless TSRA moves over. There will be times at each terminal that sh/ts move through today and tonight causing tempo cigs/vis to fall into IFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 A persistent southeast wind around 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet will remain over the coastal waters ahead of the approaching cold front today and Sunday. Behind the front, north to northeast winds will increase to 20 to 25 knots for most waters, and Small Craft Advisories will likely be necessary. Hazardous marine conditions could continue for much of the new week. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1264371 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:27 AM 04.Apr.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 118 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026 - The high risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through the weekend. Residents and visitors to Central Florida`s Atlantic beaches should stay out of the ocean. - Lower rain coverage this evening and Saturday. Breezy conditions persist with temperatures remaining above normal. - By next Tuesday and Wednesday, higher rain coverage and increasingly strong northeast winds are forecast as a front moves through the state. The potential for beach and boating impacts has increased. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026 Rest of Today-Saturday...A little drier than previous days, otherwise more of the same as deep high pressure over the western subtropical Atlantic extending over Florida remains in control. Ridge axis of the surface high keeps its station north of the area, continuing onshore (east-southeasterly) flow that could become gusty in the afternoons from sea breeze enhancement, especially along the coast. A few boundaries have managed to support some light showers, and couple lightning storms have managed to develop over the Atlantic waters off the Space Coast this afternoon, which could move inland. Could see showers and a storm or two pull off the same trick tomorrow, but otherwise dry conditions. Above normal afternoon highs in the L-M80s, and overnight lows in the M60s-70. Sunday-Monday...Pattern becomes more unsettled as increasing moisture brings back chances for showers and lightning storms. High pressure begins to retreat eastward ahead of a trough swinging across the eastern US, and an approaching surface front. By Monday the front will have outrun its upper level support, which remains north of the area, causing the front to slow down as it sags into North Florida and towards Central Florida. This is where models begin to diverge, with the ECM pushing a weakening front through a bit faster, transiting Central Florida Monday night, while the GFS and CMC slow a more active front to a crawl, potentially stalling near or over Central Florida late Monday into Tuesday. A slug of moisture (PWATS increasing to 1.3-1.5" between the 75th and 90th percentile) advects over portions of South to Central Florida Sunday from the Bahamas in the continued onshore (east- southeast) flow. Rain chances increase to 30-50%, highest along the sea breeze collision across the western interior near to south of the Orlando Metro in the late afternoon/evening. Sharp low- level lapse rates will support quick updraft development, and while dry air aloft will be a hurdle for deep convection, it will also enhance downdrafts of storms that are able to punch through, producing gusty winds in addition to frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall. Moisture further increases Monday ahead of the front (PWATs 1.3-1.5" across most of the area), and while the polar jet falls short, an enhanced subtropical jet developing across the southern CONUS and Gulf starts to increase large scale ascent over Florida, bringing rain chances up to 50-70% in the afternoon and evening. There is some uncertainty in timing and location of the highest chances as differences in frontal timing begin to show. Could see a transition from isolated to scattered lightning storms to wider coverage of moderate to heavy showers through the afternoon and into the evening, also depending on the front`s timing. Even warmer on Sunday with afternoon highs in the L-M80s along the coast and M-U80s inland, 2-6 degrees above normal. Increasing cloud cover across the northern half of the area Monday brings highs to the U70s-L80s, while the southern half stays in the L-M80s. Overnight lows remain in the 60s. Tuesday-Thursday...Potentially very active weather mid next week, including heavy rainfall, strong winds, and hazardous to dangerous beach and boating conditions. Models are continuing to struggle with the setup. GFS and CMC continue to call for a very wet several days as the front and associated high moisture stall across Central Florida, which combined with the upper level support from the subtropical jet, would produce high coverage of showers and storms, while the ECM manages to push the front and most of the moisture into South Florida by Wednesday, resulting in a soggy Tuesday but drier outlook for Wednesday onward. The former scenario could result in widespread rainfall amounts over 2" (which would be helpful for the drought), and locally higher amounts over 6" (which could lead to flooding especially if received too quickly). Either way the front goes, northeast winds are likely to increase as the pressure gradient tightens between the front and strong high pressure building to the north, producing a fresh to possibly strong northeast breeze, with gusts that could reach 40 mph, worsening beach and marine conditions. Ensembles generally favor the wetter/windier GFS/CMC solution, including the EPS, and is reflected in the official forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026 Rest of Today-Sunday...Ridge axis of high pressure anchored over the subtropical western Atlantic remains north of Florida and the local Atlantic waters, continuing moderate to fresh onshore (east- southeasterly) winds. Small craft should continue to exercise caution the rest of today through Saturday night for winds periodically increasing to 15-20 kts and seas up to 6 ft, especially in the Gulf Stream. Mostly dry, but isolated showers and even a lightning storm or two could form on convergence lines. Winds and to some extent seas become more favorable for boating Sunday as the high pressure starts to retreat eastward, but chances for showers and lightning storms increase near the coast and inland. Monday-Tuesday...Winds and seas remain generally favorable for boating most of Monday, but rain and lightning storms chances further increase ahead of an approaching front. The front is forecast to slow as it reaches Florida late Monday into Tuesday, and there is some uncertainty how far/fast it will push into/through Central Florida and the local Atlantic waters over the next several days. Winds and seas could begin to deteriorate as early as late Monday, and are likely to become hazardous to possibly dangerous by late Tuesday. High chances of showers and lightning storms continue as well. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 118 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 Fairly quiet with persistence pattern for this TAF period. Mainly VFR with E/SE breezes 10-20 kt, gusting up to 25 kt in the afternoon hours. Shower chances are < 20%, too low to mention in TAFs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 82 66 84 65 / 10 0 40 40 MCO 84 67 86 67 / 10 0 50 30 MLB 81 69 82 66 / 10 0 40 30 VRB 82 68 83 66 / 10 10 30 30 LEE 87 66 88 66 / 10 0 40 30 SFB 85 66 87 66 / 10 0 50 30 ORL 85 67 87 67 / 10 0 50 30 FPR 82 67 83 65 / 10 10 40 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1264370 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:24 AM 04.Apr.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 115 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1239 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms will accompany a cold front as it crosses the region on Sunday. A few of the storms may be strong. Beneficial rain will affect much of the region, but forecast rainfall amounts below 1 inch will offer no drought improvement. - A prolonged period of high rip current risk will continue at all local beaches through this evening. Swim near a lifeguard, and heed the advice of beach flags. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 1239 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 Satellite-derived Precipitable Water (PW) imagery currently shows a bullseye of moister PW values in the 1.5-1.6 inch range over our Eastern Time Zone counties. Meanwhile, a nose of drier mid- level air is currently located east of Florida. Southeasterly flow in the 1000-700 mb layer will bring the moister bullseye to an area extending from Marianna FL northward up the Chattahoochee River. So that is where another round of air mass thunderstorms will most heavily focus this afternoon. Meanwhile, the drier air currently east of Florida will arrive by mid-afternoon over the southeast Big Bend up to near Valdosta, so that is where afternoon thunder is least favored. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1239 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 A cold front will push south across the region during the day on Sunday. It should readily bring a scattering a showers, thunderstorms, and trailing stratiform rain to area along and west of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers. East and southeast of there, upper level support will quickly exit and start to orphan the front, so convective coverage and rain chances will decrease as you head into south-central Georgia and the FL Big Bend late Sunday and Sunday evening. Behind the front on Monday, a cooler and drier low-level air mass will overspread the area. The fly in the ointment is that the subtropical jet stream will become more active on Monday and Tuesday, when two separate shortwave will zip east across the Gulf. Mainly for our Florida and far south Georgia counties, this could provided the lift needed to squeeze some light rain out of a thick mid-level cloud deck. By Wednesday, the southern stream will mainly be enhancing rain further south over the Gulf and the FL Peninsula, but our continuation of 20-30 Pops over our FL counties accounts for uncertainty with the northern extent of rain in a Day 5 forecast. Larger scale lift from the southern jet stream will move out east of Florida on Thursday, leaving us more confidently high and dry through Friday. Building 500 mb heights on Friday will further cap the air mass. Low-level easterly flow will really pick up on Wednesday, as the southern periphery of strong high pressure over the Great Lakes region bridges south across the tri-state area. Ensemble mean 925 mb winds suggest gusts of 25-30 mph are likely, with winds peaking on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Gulf waters are likely to see a few days worth of solid Small Craft Advisory conditions. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 Showers still linger between the DHN and ABY terminals for the start of this TAF period. Mainly VFR cigs across the region for now but, MVFR cigs can be expected closer to daybreak. Today will be similar to yesterday with scattered showers and thunderstorms, however the cluster will be more so in Alabama this afternoon. The DHN terminal has the higher chances for today. Winds will be southeasterly this morning, then become more southerly through the afternoon at around 10 kts. Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and heavy downpours, which could restrict vsbys at the terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 1239 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 Moderate southeast breezes will weaken and become light to gentle from Saturday night through most of Sunday. A cold front will settle south across the waters on Sunday evening, followed by fresh and possibly strong north to northeast breezes through Monday morning. Winds will clock around easterly by early Tuesday, as high pressure moves off the North Carolina coast. The southern periphery of strong high pressure will bridge south across the waters late Tuesday, freshening the easterly breezes. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely on Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1239 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 Another round of summer-like thunderstorms will develop this afternoon, most heavily favoring southeast Alabama, the inland Panhandle, and far southwest Georgia. A cold front will pass south across the districts on Sunday afternoon. This will act as a focus for more thunderstorms, though the front will encounter weaker support for storms by the time its gets south across the Big Bend region late Sunday afternoon. A drier air mass will spread across the districts on Sunday night and Monday. Where stronger transport winds and full sunshine can overlap across inland areas, high dispersion would be expected on Sunday and Monday. Areas of morning fog are likely on Saturday and Sunday mornings, mainly over the inland Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and far southwest Georgia. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1239 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 Flooding is not expected for the next 7 days. Brief heavy downpours this afternoon between the Flint Valley on the east and U.S. 231 in Alabama on the west could lead to short- lived runoff issues in urbanized locales. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 84 61 84 60 / 20 0 30 30 Panama City 81 64 78 59 / 20 0 50 40 Dothan 84 62 76 53 / 60 20 80 30 Albany 84 62 80 54 / 40 10 70 40 Valdosta 86 62 85 60 / 20 0 30 40 Cross City 88 61 86 62 / 10 0 10 10 Apalachicola 75 64 77 62 / 10 0 20 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1264369 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 AM 04.Apr.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1216 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1209 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 Key Messages: * Heavy rainfall and slow moving thunderstorms could result in instances of flooding and flash flooding over parts of the area Saturday night through Sunday night. * Preliminary rainfall amounts by Monday morning will range between 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts; additional rainfall amounts are possible Monday and Tuesday. * Adverse to hazardous marine conditions are expected into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1050 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 A much welcomed pattern change is here for the holiday weekend, with a few light showers and isolated thunderstorms pushing across the border into Zapata County and potentially the upper valley early tonight. There will be one more day of above normal temperatures before a cold front arrives Saturday night into early Sunday, offering up a 10-20 degree temperature drop from Saturday afternoon to late Sunday afternoon. Lows in the 50s are expected Monday and Tuesday mornings, with highs in the upper 60s to near 70 Monday and into the 70s on Tuesday, before drier and warmer conditions return. Most importantly, aside from the break in the heat, confidence in beneficial rainfall continues, with deep column moisture accompanying the frontal boundary, a coastal trough setting up in its wake, and a surface low meandering near the lower Texas coast. Rainfall totals have trended slightly lower the past two model runs, but still sit in the vicinity of around 1 to 1.5 inches are expected across Deep South Texas with locally higher amounts near 2 inches or more where any rainfall persists. Higher totals have shifted a bit south of the border, closer to the surface low and higher terrain, still favoring portions of the brush country and upper valley in Zapata and Starr counties. A few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday evening into Saturday night, especially across Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Starr counties, with off and on periods of showers and thunderstorms then expected across all of Deep South Texas through Sunday and Monday, kicking up along roaming outflow boundaries. Rainfall chances gradually taper off from west to east Tuesday into Wednesday. There remains a Marginal (Level 1 of 4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall from Saturday into Monday morning. PWAT values near 1.7 to 2.0 inches arrive through the day Sunday, well above the 90th percentile for early April. Any shower or thunderstorm in this atmosphere will be a very efficient rainmaker. Given the lack of rainfall through the year for most locations, there will be an elevated concern for runoff and flash flooding where any heavy rainfall persists, especially in areas like southern Zapata and Starr counties. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 Mostly MVFR conditions to persist through the overnight into the early morning hours. Southeasterly winds should stay light for the remainder of the overnight hours and early morning hours as well. The southeasterly winds should become more gustier with some gusts around 20 knots possible. During the late morning ceilings should improve to VFR status, but there could still be a few low-level clouds lingering over the region. && .MARINE... Issued at 1050 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 Southeasterly winds persist into Saturday night with Small Craft Caution conditions. A cold front late Saturday into Sunday brings northerly winds and potential SCA conditions across the Gulf, as well as showers and thunderstorms, including some heavy to strong showers and thunderstorms Saturday night through Monday. Southeasterly winds and drier weather gradually return early to mid next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 88 71 78 61 / 10 80 90 80 HARLINGEN 90 66 78 57 / 10 80 90 80 MCALLEN 94 69 77 60 / 30 80 90 80 RIO GRANDE CITY 93 63 71 56 / 50 90 90 80 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 72 75 67 / 10 70 90 80 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 87 69 78 61 / 10 70 90 80 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1264367 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:03 AM 04.Apr.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1056 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1050 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 Key Messages: * Heavy rainfall and slow moving thunderstorms could result in instances of flooding and flash flooding over parts of the area Saturday night through Sunday night. * Preliminary rainfall amounts by Monday morning will range between 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts; additional rainfall amounts are possible Monday and Tuesday. * Adverse to hazardous marine conditions are expected into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1050 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 A much welcomed pattern change is here for the holiday weekend, with a few light showers and isolated thunderstorms pushing across the border into Zapata County and potentially the upper valley early tonight. There will be one more day of above normal temperatures before a cold front arrives Saturday night into early Sunday, offering up a 10-20 degree temperature drop from Saturday afternoon to late Sunday afternoon. Lows in the 50s are expected Monday and Tuesday mornings, with highs in the upper 60s to near 70 Monday and into the 70s on Tuesday, before drier and warmer conditions return. Most importantly, aside from the break in the heat, confidence in beneficial rainfall continues, with deep column moisture accompanying the frontal boundary, a coastal trough setting up in its wake, and a surface low meandering near the lower Texas coast. Rainfall totals have trended slightly lower the past two model runs, but still sit in the vicinity of around 1 to 1.5 inches are expected across Deep South Texas with locally higher amounts near 2 inches or more where any rainfall persists. Higher totals have shifted a bit south of the border, closer to the surface low and higher terrain, still favoring portions of the brush country and upper valley in Zapata and Starr counties. A few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday evening into Saturday night, especially across Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Starr counties, with off and on periods of showers and thunderstorms then expected across all of Deep South Texas through Sunday and Monday, kicking up along roaming outflow boundaries. Rainfall chances gradually taper off from west to east Tuesday into Wednesday. There remains a Marginal (Level 1 of 4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall from Saturday into Monday morning. PWAT values near 1.7 to 2.0 inches arrive through the day Sunday, well above the 90th percentile for early April. Any shower or thunderstorm in this atmosphere will be a very efficient rainmaker. Given the lack of rainfall through the year for most locations, there will be an elevated concern for runoff and flash flooding where any heavy rainfall persists, especially in areas like southern Zapata and Starr counties. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 VFR to MVFR conditions are expected with gusty southeasterly winds persisting into late tonight. A southeasterly breeze is anticipated on Saturday, but not as gusty as today. The chance of showers and isolated strong to severe thunderstorms increases just beyond this TAF period from the northwest into Saturday night. && .MARINE... Issued at 1050 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 Southeasterly winds persist into Saturday night with Small Craft Caution conditions. A cold front late Saturday into Sunday brings northerly winds and potential SCA conditions across the Gulf, as well as showers and thunderstorms, including some heavy to strong showers and thunderstorms Saturday night through Monday. Southeasterly winds and drier weather gradually return early to mid next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 73 88 71 78 / 20 10 80 90 HARLINGEN 69 90 66 78 / 20 10 90 90 MCALLEN 75 94 69 77 / 20 20 90 90 RIO GRANDE CITY 73 93 63 71 / 20 40 90 90 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 80 72 75 / 20 10 80 90 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 87 69 78 / 20 10 80 90 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ130-132- 135-150-155-170-175. && $$ |
