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| #1285617 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:09 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 908 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 907 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 - Hazardous marine conditions are likely for much of this week starting on Monday. Small Craft Advisories will be needed for the Gulf waters, and occasional gusts near gale force are expected. - No additional freezes are expected for this week after this morning, and a warming trend is expected after Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 907 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 No significant updates needed to the forecast this morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 After a frosty start this morning, temperatures will rebound back into the 60s this afternoon for most areas with partly cloudy skies. High pressure centered north of the area will maintain a dry and cool northeast flow across the area. For tonight, cloud cover will increase late in the night from west to east as an upper level shortwave approaches. This cloud cover and a slight increase in moisture should keep temperatures from dropping as low as this morning, and overnight lows are expected to range from the mid 30s across the northern counties to mid 40s closer to the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 The upper level shortwave will move through on Monday with abundant cloud cover and cool northeast surface winds. The best moisture and lift are expected to remain south of the area, so rain chances are minimal despite the cloudy skies. Monday`s high temperatures will be on the cool side with the cloud cover and northeast flow. NBM temperatures for Monday may be too high, and the official forecast trended towards CONSRaw guidance. This results in highs remaining in the mid to upper 50s over a large portion of the area, except mid 60s across the far southeast big bend. Beyond Monday, a warming trend is expected with highs getting back into the 70s by the middle to end of the week with dry weather still continuing. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Patchy to areas of frost expected until 9 AM ET/8 AM CT. Winds will become more northeasterly through the afternoon with high clouds passing through. && .MARINE... Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 Hazardous marine conditions are likely for much of this week starting on Monday. A tightening pressure gradient with high pressure centered across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic will bring strong east to northeast winds to the area. Small Craft Advisories will be needed for the Gulf waters, and occasional gusts near gale force are expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 Relative humidity values will drop to near critical levels over parts of SE AL, SW GA, and the FL Big Bend again this afternoon, but winds will be light with cool temperatures. Moisture will rebound on Monday with abundant cloud cover, but little to no rain is expected. Overall, dry weather will persist amidst a warming trend through this upcoming week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 Little to no rainfall forecast precludes any hydrological concerns over the next several days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 64 43 61 47 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 64 45 61 48 / 0 0 10 0 Dothan 61 40 58 42 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 61 37 59 40 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 63 40 61 44 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 67 45 67 51 / 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 64 49 62 52 / 0 0 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285616 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:27 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 713 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 713 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 - Dry air combined with ongoing drought conditions will elevate fire spread concerns across northern portions of the area through this afternoon. Residents in areas under burn bans should not conduct outdoor burning of any kind. Residents in areas without official burn bans should take extra precautions if burning outdoors. - Hazardous marine conditions are expected off and on through midweek next week. Gusts up to gale force will be possible early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 713 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 Updating zones for weather and cloud cover variables. Most areas are still seeing virga but there is some layer moistening occurring over the western quarter of the area allowing rain to make it to the sfc a lot sooner than expected. We will bring this eastward with time this morning about 8 to 10 hours sooner than previous forecast. This is going to be stratiform rain, so nothing heavy just an earlier onset. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Monday night) Issued at 1151 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026 Quiet and cool night in store. By 04z temps were already down into the 40s and lower 50s across most of the area with a few isolated areas in the cooler drainage areas in the 30s. Temps will likely continue to drop a little more overnight but will slow down especially as clouds continue to build in from the west. As for the forecast the main forecast concerns is the s/w that will move into the region later today and through the region Monday along with increasing hazardous marine conditions. Our main antagonist is currently moving over the TX panhandle and it looks like it will be able to undercut the ridge overnight tonight and early Monday as it slides into the Lower MS Valley. The mid lvl jet max is still just downstream of the trough axis and thus likely why it will have enough punch to keep driving ESE. It will start to open up and merge with the deeper L/W trough just before it pushes off the east coast. The biggest problem is because of the ridging just ahead, our recent cold front, and sfc high to the north moisture will not be able to recover fast enough ahead of it but also with the orientation that this s/w takes it will lead to a majority of the strongest support remaining just off to the south. With that we will likely see a continuation of the rain remaining just south of the area. Even with a well defined disturbance because of that orientation (it is a highly positively titled trough axis by early/midday Monday) hghts actually appear to remain fairly unchanged. The best hght falls and mid the mid lvl jet will ridge the northern Gulf. Still anticipate some isolated to scattered light showers but overall the heaviest rain looks to remain just off to our west and south. This disturbance will likely lead to the development of a sfc low over the northwestern Gulf this evening but how well defined and strong it will be is uncertain. Some models are showing a small but quickly developing well defined sfc low however, there appears to be some feedback issue going on. This is also leading to rather strong easterly winds developing over much of the coastal waters and over a prolonged time frame. This seems a little aggressive especially given how small this area of low pressure may be. The bigger influence is likely the large broad sfc high building down which will be centered over KY but it will stretch from the southern Plains, south to the Gulf Coast, and east-southeast off the SC coast. Now that is not to say that there is a sfc low that develops just not as confident it will be as well defined or as deep as some of the models show. Temperatures will start to moderate tonight and Monday night however highs both today and tomorrow will likely remain fairly similar with h925 temps of 7-9C which should result in highs in the lower to mid 60s for much of the area both days. Lows will be a little warmer tonight than they will be this morning thanks to the increase in relative humidity and increasing winds. That said we will still see lows in the lower 40s to lower 50s over much of the area. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 1151 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026 Medium range models from earlier today were in very good agreement through the week however that is not what we would like to hear because that will keep the dry weather pattern in place. It looks like the next best chance for a system to bring rain may be late next weekend or the beginning of Thanksgiving week. No major disagreements with the NBM at this time so no adjustments have been made. As our disturbance continues to slide east and merge with the east coast trough we will see mid lvl ridging build in. By Wednesday morning the ridge will dominate the area from the TX coast northeast across the Lower MS Valley and into the OH and TN Valley`s. This will slowly moderate temps with highs climbing from the the lower 70s Tuesday to the mid upper 70s Wednesday and Thursday and maybe even a few locations touching 80/81 by Friday. We will also see moisture slowly creep up and thus morning lows will trend a degree or 2 warmer each morning going from near 40 and lower 50s Tuesday morning to 50s across the entire area Friday morning, maybe even a few locations remaining in the lower 60s. There will be a couple of disturbances coming out of the Pacific across the 4 corners this week. These will all basically ride just over the ridge into the central Plains and Mid MS Valley. The ridge will become elongated from southwest to northeast eventually stretching from the western Gulf to the Carolina`s but it will be stubborn and keep all rain out of the area. As we head into weekend the forecast is highly questionable as the models start to diverge as they struggle with the numerous Pac systems coming towards the region. This should eventually help lead to a more persistent west coast trough and eastern coast ridge with southwest flow aloft and hopefully some better rain potential. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 445 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 OVC cigs will cover the entire area today and begin lowering by late morning into the afternoon hours. Some virga is expected with some of these cigs today and -RA will show up at the sfc by late afternoon into the overnight hours. -RA will be timed and should remain along and west of a line from MCB to NEW to the gulf. Some cigs in this prementioned area could fall to MVFR levels while -RA is ongoing. Elsewhere, cigs and vis should remain in VFR through this taf cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 1151 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026 Winds continue to persist around 15-20 kt over most of the coastal waters. This supports Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines however a more impactful period of hazardous marine conditions looks likely late Sunday and continuing through at least the middle of next week. The approaching disturbance will support the development of a surface low over the northwestern Gulf. Combine that with high pressure building south and we will see a tightening of the pressure gradient over the northern Gulf. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 knots and seas of 6 to 10 feet will be possible across the open Gulf waters Monday, with higher gusts potentially approaching or exceeding gale force. How strong a surface low develops is in question as there may be some convective feedback leading a deeper surface lown than what may actually occur and thus we will keep the Gale Watch out for now. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all other marine areas due to the forecast persistent pressure gradient between the surface low and high pressure to the north. May not see much appreciable relief until the end of next week. /CAB/ && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ529-531>536-541-543-557-577. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight CST tonight for GMZ551-553-554-570-572-575. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ551-553-554-570-572-575. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ531>536-541-543-557-577. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight CST tonight for GMZ553-554-570-572-575. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ553-554-570-572-575. && $$ |
| #1285615 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:27 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 621 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 613 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 - Freezing temperatures continue across the northern portions of the area this morning with frost possible across much of the remainder of the area (north of the immediate coast). - Strong easterly winds develop over the marine area Monday, resulting in a High Risk of rip currents and potentially hazardous surf conditions through midweek. && .UPDATE... Issued at 613 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 Forecast remains on track early this morning with temperatures falling into the 30s across much of the area over the past few hours, while remaining in the upper 40s to low 50s along the immediate coastline. No forecast changes were necessary. 07/mb && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1134 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026 An eastern states upper trof mostly moves off into the western Atlantic through Monday, but in the process absorbs a system from the south central states. The result of this will be an upper trof progressing into the forecast area on Monday which then gradually moves off into the western Atlantic as upper ridging builds into the eastern states. A surface ridge remains over the forecast region through Friday, and am anticipating dry conditions to prevail through the period except for a few possible sprinkles near the coast on Monday as the upper trof moves across the area. A Freeze Warning remains in effect until 8 am Sunday morning well inland with a Frost Advisory for most of the remainder of the area north of the immediate coast. Overnight lows range from the lower 30s well inland to around 40 at the coast. Lows Sunday night and Monday night generally range from the lower/mid 30s well inland to the mid 40s at the coast, and it`s possible that a light freeze could occur each night over the northern periphery of the area. Highs on Sunday range from around 60 to the mid 60s, then Monday will be a bit cooler and range from the upper 50s to lower 60s. A warming trend follows for the rest of the week, with highs warming to the mid 70s for Thursday and Friday, and lows trending by Thursday night to range from the lower 40s well inland to the mid 50s at the coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Sunday then trends to a High Risk Monday into Monday night which continues through Wednesday. /29 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the period. Northeasterly winds persist around 5-10 knots today. Cloud cover will increase tonight area-wide. 07/mb && .MARINE... Issued at 613 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 Northeasterly winds increase through the afternoon and evening with a moderate to strong flow expected. Strong easterly to northeasterly flow develop tomorrow as seas build to 5-9 feet through the end of the week. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected for the near and offshore Gulf waters throughout much of the upcoming week in response to the strengthening flow. 07/mb && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 64 41 61 42 / 0 10 10 0 Pensacola 64 46 61 49 / 0 0 10 0 Destin 64 50 62 52 / 0 0 10 0 Evergreen 61 36 59 37 / 0 0 10 0 Waynesboro 62 37 62 36 / 0 10 0 0 Camden 59 33 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 62 38 59 41 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for ALZ051>058. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ALZ059-060-261- 262. FL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for FLZ201-203-205. MS...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for MSZ067. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for MSZ075-076. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$ |
| #1285612 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:09 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 601 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A storm system will bring multiple weather hazards Sunday - There is a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms today in our coastal and marine areas. - Heavy showers and thunderstorms may result in localized flash flooding today, especially near the coast. - Strong marine winds expected through Monday. Gales Warning in effect for Galveston Bay and the Gulf waters. Small Craft Advisory in effect for Matagorda Bay. && .UPDATE... Issued at 601 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 Lead shortwave that brought areas of light rain overnight is pushing ewd into Louisiana. There is a zone of low level convergence near the coast where we`re seeing moderate rain along the beaches in Matagorda and Brazoria Counties that have produced 1-3" so far. Attention turns to the next batch of rain across north and north-central TX will be making its way across the region during the day today. Overall model trends have been more progressive...so although some localized heavy downpours can be anticipated, continued sewd movement should somewhat limit the excessive totals. The warm sector probably won`t make it too far past the beaches which should also help in terms of rain total inland. But still concerned about the coastal counties where totals should be highest. Keep in mind that tide levels are up, so drainage will be slow. I bumped up the start time of the Gale Warnings for our eastern waters (Galveston Bay and adjacent Gulf) to begin immediately. HRRR has been consistently showing the gradient tightening faster...and we`re seeing that in current observations with 30-37kt already showing. Look for these speeds to increase further by mid morning. Still anticipating the highest speeds this evening and tonight when some 45kt gusts can`t be ruled out over the waters. 47 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1130 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026 A variety of weather hazards will effect southeast Texas on Sunday. A mid/upper low is currently pushing into the Texas Panhandle and drifting eastward towards Oklahoma. A strengthening and increasingly diffluent mid/upper jet is located ahead of and to the south of the low. These ML/UL dynamics are also helping to foment LL cyclogenesis, with a developing sfc low over NW Texas (south of the Panhandle). Meanwhile, a rather cold sfc high is drifting southeastward over the Mississippi River Valley. Colder dense air from the east is advecting westward towards the low, and enhancing a temperature gradient across the Lone Star State. The sfc low will track southeastward Sunday, roughly parallel to the temperature gradient. To the north of the low`s associated warm front, one can expect widespread light to moderate showers, with some embedded heavier showers and thunderstorms. But those south of the warm front will find themselves in the system`s warm sector, where high atmospheric buoyancy coupled with a strongly sheered and veering vertical wind profile will set the stage for stronger thunderstorms. As discussed in my discussion yesterday, there was some uncertainty regarding the exact placement of these boundaries and the overall extent of the warm sector over our CWA. But today, it appears there is increasing confidence that the warm front will be more suppressed southward, limiting the warm sector zones to the coast (especially near Matagorda Bay) and the offshore Gulf waters. Through the early morning hours on Sunday, the highest chance of showers will be across our western counties. There is a risk strong to severe thunderstorms in the vicinity of Matagorda Bay overnight into Sunday morning. Already, we have observed discrete supercells offshore the Coastal Bend this evening, with some "side lobe-y" looking cells offshore of Matagorda. Therefore, I am not going to be surprised if we manage to see a few waterspouts in our Gulf waters in the vicinity of Matagorda before most people wake up on Sunday. We also cannot rule out a tornado in this area either. Rain and thunderstorm coverage should generally increase over our region later this morning and into the afternoon. With trends pointing towards a farther south warm front, it`s quite possible that most (maybe all) areas north of I-10 will hold in the 50s all day. There`s even some hi-res guidance suggesting our northern zones could drop into the 40s by late afternoon. There will likely be a steep temperature gradient south of I-10. The warmest parts of our CWA (coastal areas of Brazoria, Matagorda, and Jackson Counties) could top out in the 70s. The highest risk of heavy rainfall capable of flooding will be near the coast. However, locally heavy rainfall capable of localized flooding cannot be ruled out farther inland. Widespread totals of 1-2 inches are expected inland, while coastal areas are forecast to average in the 2-4 inch range. Locally much heavier totals are likely at the coast, with some spots possibly receiving over 6 inches of rainfall. The highest rainfall rates are still expected to peak 2-3"/ per hour near the coast. Therefore, flash flooding is a concern. Rain and thunderstorms are not the only hazards associated with this system. Strong, gusty coastal and marine winds will continue through Monday. There is even a Gale Warning in effect for the majority of our marine zones for later today into Monday. Please see the marine discussion for more details. Colder air should push southward towards the coast as the low exits offshore, resulting in breezy and chilly conditions Sunday night. Lows are expected to be in the 40s north of I-10, with low to mid 50s farther south. Yesterday, Monday was appearing murky and quite chilly. Today, there`s increasing uncertainty regarding how murky it will be on Monday. Some of the guidance is suggesting a shorter isentropic lift period and more dry air than initially expected, opening the door to breaking clouds and more sunshine. If the sun breaks out by early/mid afternoon, then we may make a run for the 60 degree mark. But if clouds prove more resilient, then I could see us struggling to warm past the mid 50s. Monday night will be chilly, with widespread lows in the 40s. Areas near the coast and within the heart of Houston`s urban heat island may remain in the 50s. We still anticipate a warming trend beyond Monday. By Wednesday and Thursday, most of the region is expected to be in the 70s. Couldn`t rule out a few locations reaching 80 by week`s end. Self && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 601 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 With the exception of coastal areas, we`ll see a brief break in precipitation until a band of rain and embedded storms to our northwest tracks across the region later this morning and off the coast late in the day. Stronger, embedded cells will be capable of producing some heavy downpours, reduced visibility, and gusty winds. Ceilings are currently mixed, but look for things to trend down into MVFR territory this morning and eventually IFR as the day and evening progresses. Moderate rain should come to an end over all locations by early evening, but we`re looking for some wrap around drizzle/light rain during the overnight hours. Can`t rule out some ceilings <500ft. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 957 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026 Showers and thunderstorms along with strong winds are expected Sunday. The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of gales and waterspouts. Winds will be easterly, averaging 20-25 knots with higher gusts through early afternoon. Later in the way, winds are expected to increase while backing northeast to north. There is some uncertainty regarding the timing of this turn. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the Gulf later today through Monday morning and possibly into the afternoon. For Galveston Bay, gusts to gale force are expected this afternoon into tonight, especially in the lower bay. Gulf offshore seas over 10 feet are likely, with waters in the bays become quite rough. Conditions will gradually improve beyond Monday. However, hazardous marine conditions could linger into Wednesday, especially over the Gulf. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 55 47 57 46 / 100 50 20 0 Houston (IAH) 59 49 59 48 / 90 70 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 69 55 64 57 / 90 90 30 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM CST Monday for TXZ214-235>238-313-335>338. Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for TXZ436>439. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Monday for GMZ330. Gale Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ335. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 3 PM CST Monday for GMZ335. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-370. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Monday for GMZ350-370. Gale Warning until 3 PM CST Monday for GMZ355-375. && $$ |
| #1285613 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:09 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 555 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 539 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 - A cold front arriving late this afternoon/overnight brings showers and thunderstorms. - The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of isolated severe thunderstorms along the front. - Marine conditions continue to deteriorate as the front approaches. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through early this week. - There is a High Risk of life-threatening rip currents Sunday, and dangerous surf and minor coastal flooding is possible Monday. - Cool temperatures and gusty winds Monday in the wake of the front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 948 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026 Tonight, any showers should remain mostly offshore, with a low chance of isolated showers along the immediate coast. A cold front will move through the region Sunday, with latest guidance supporting a round of showers and thunderstorms Sunday evening into early Monday morning. SSE surface winds will allow low- level moisture to build during the day Sunday, with PWATs climbing to 1.4-1.7" (75-90th percentile for mid-Nov). Strong westerly flow aloft will maintain relatively dry mid and upper levels, which should allow for mostly clear skies and daytime sfc heating with highs in the mid-80s. The combination of instability, moisture, and lift will bring conditions favorable for showers and thunderstorms, with greatest potential along and east of US-281. This is a supportive environment for organized convection, with a few strong to severe storms possible. Convection is expected to initially develop in a clustered mode ahead of the front, potentially congealing into a line along the front overnight. Any storms could capable of producing damaging winds and hail, with a brief tornado also possible. Most favorable conditions for severe storms exist east of US-281, particularly along the coast, with lapse rates around 6degC/km and effective SRH values of 100-150 m2s2 anticipated. However, storms my struggle with dry air entrainment, given dry mid and upper levels. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms. There remains uncertainty regarding the timing and inland extent of convection with continued disagreement in short range guidance. Some solutions keep activity largely confined to east of US-77, while others support scattered thunderstorms extending into the upper RGV - kept NBM PoPs, supporting activity reaching inland to US-281. Current thinking is precip most likely arriving in the NE Ranchlands around 5 PM, pushing southeasterly into the RGV through midnight, with activity moving out of the Valley before sunrise Monday. Behind the front, gusty northerly winds to 20-30 mph develop, lasting into the evening. Cooler temperatures follow, with Monday highs around 60 (upper 50s in N Ranchlands). Opted to bump NBM temperatures down given cloud cover and CAA. Tuesday morning will be chillier with lows in the 50s (60s near the coast), followed by afternoon highs generally in the 70s (though this may need to be adjusted down on future shifts as cloud cover and northerly flow persists..). Isolated showers near the coast are possible Monday and Tuesday in the wake of the front. Conditions at local beaches deteriorate Sunday, with elevated seas and increasing swell bringing a High risk of life-threatening rip currents. Minor coastal flooding is possible early this week behind the front. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 539 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 Light east to southeast winds with areas of low stratus prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Brief MVFR ceilings may be possible at MFE through around 14Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through early evening. Winds will increase later this morning with some gusts around 20 kts, especially at BRO. Winds are forecast to decrease later this afternoon into early evening ahead of a frontal boundary. A cold front will move through the area late this evening into tonight. Breezy north winds with gusts around 25 kts and MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible later tonight. Rain chances will increase late today into tonight along and ahead of the cold front. && .MARINE... Issued at 948 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through early this week. Sunday, an enhanced pressure gradient ahead of a cold front will maintain moderate winds and seas with gusts greater than 20 kts. Rain chances increase to moderate in the northern waters Sunday evening ahead of the cold front, bringing showers and thunderstorms from north to south overnight. Thunderstorms can to bring elevated seas, strong winds, and possible waterspouts. Behind the front early Monday morning, expect strong northerly winds, with near-gale gusts possible, Monday through Monday night as seas build to 9-11 ft. Lingering showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue over the waters through Tuesday. Winds and seas gradually subside Tuesday. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will likely last through midweek. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 84 63 64 59 / 10 60 20 30 HARLINGEN 85 60 61 56 / 20 60 20 20 MCALLEN 88 59 62 57 / 0 60 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 88 59 64 55 / 0 30 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 68 69 63 / 20 70 40 60 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 82 64 65 60 / 10 70 30 50 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Tuesday for TXZ451-454-455. High Rip Current Risk from this evening through late Monday night for TXZ451-454-455. High Surf Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Tuesday for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Tuesday night for GMZ130- 132-135-150-155-170-175. && $$ |
| #1285611 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:57 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 545 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 534 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 Beach cams showed water levels reaching the dunes. Given this and the forecast for the high tide cycles for potential minor coastal flooding, a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued through at least Monday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 534 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 - Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms and marginal to slight excessive rainfall (level 1-2 of 4) today, most likely over Victoria Crossroads - Minor coastal flooding increasingly likely along with a HIGH rip current risk tonight into Monday morning. - Hazardous seas with Gale conditions following front overnight through Monday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1253 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 Yesterday (Saturday), turned out to be much wetter than majority of the guidance indicated, with several pockets over 2.0" along the northern Coastal Bend and southern Victoria Crossroads. This same area will be most favorable for additional showers and storms through today, resulting in a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall. A 30-50% chance for showers and storms this morning over the Coastal Plains will increase to a 50-90% this afternoon as a cold front pushes through. FROPA is expected by this evening, latest CAM guidance trending faster, causing only lingering low rain chances to continue tonight. Majority of the mid-level lift support will remain to our northeast, limiting the southern extent of the severe threat. Instability will likely be limited with CAPE under 1500 J/kg, but with effective shear over 40 knots aligned parallel to the frontal boundary, a line of strong storms can`t be ruled out ahead of and along the front as it pushes through. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary hazards. The shallow cold air mass will allow for low overcast clouds to linger through Monday, likely cooler than what the NBM has currently with temperatures varying little night to day with the breezy offshore flow. Therefore, went with a blend of short-range consensus and the REFS to get max temperatures on Monday only in the mid to upper 50s areawide; still about 10 degrees warmer than the record low maxes but it`ll feel nice! Rain-free conditions with partly to mostly cloudy skies will persist through the middle of the week before moisture advection returns, bringing low rain chances back in the latter half of the week. A shortwave next weekend will result in a slight increase in our rain chances. Minor coastal flooding is becoming increasingly likely tonight into early Monday morning as strong northeasterly winds enhance the Ekman transport mechanism along with sufficient wave run-up from 8-9 second swell periods. There is a high risk of rip currents tonight through Monday, leading to especially dangerous swimming conditions. Minor coastal flooding may continue to be a concern into the middle of next week during high tide at night. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 534 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 There is a mix of IFR/LIFR CIGs this morning across South Texas with the exception for terminals closest to the coast. This will continue through 15-16Z with brief returns back into MVFR territory. The cold front will then bring a wind shift between 16-22Z for all terminals with PROB30s added for -TSRA. Beyond 22Z, wind speeds increase through the night. IFR/LIFR CIGs returns after 00Z, with NE`ly winds at 15-20 kt gusting as high as 25-30 kt. && .MARINE... Issued at 1253 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 Fresh to strong southeasterly winds will persist through this morning, before weakening slightly ahead of our next cold front that will push through later this afternoon into the evening. There is a medium to high chances for showers and storms through tonight, with an increasing threat of waterspouts. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through midnight tonight over all waters, upgrading to a Gale Warning late tonight through Monday over the open waters as near Gale sustained winds and frequent Gale force winds follow in the wake of the cold front. Strong northeasterly winds will persist over the bays but may need to be include in the Gale Warning if winds trend stronger. At least Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through Tuesday night before winds weaken to moderate to fresh out of the east to southeast mid to late this week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1253 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 Elevated fire weather conditions are not anticipated through the forecast period. A cold front will pass through this afternoon to evening, leading to breezy northeasterly winds in its wake. However, temperatures will remain cooler than normal and keep minimum relative humidity above 40 percent. Fuel moisture remains above normal. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 78 55 58 53 / 70 50 10 0 Victoria 72 52 56 50 / 90 30 10 0 Laredo 81 56 61 55 / 0 10 10 10 Alice 77 54 57 52 / 60 40 10 0 Rockport 75 56 58 55 / 70 50 10 0 Cotulla 73 54 59 52 / 30 10 10 0 Kingsville 80 55 58 53 / 40 40 10 0 Navy Corpus 77 58 59 58 / 60 50 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for TXZ345-442-443- 447. High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Monday afternoon for TXZ345-442-443-447. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ231-232-236- 237. Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ250-255- 270-275. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ250- 255-270-275. && $$ |
| #1285610 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:36 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 626 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Aviation Section has been updated to reflect the 12Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Frost/freeze conditions through daybreak today and again tonight. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Frost/freeze conditions through daybreak today and again tonight. Winds have gone light to calm across the region, a result of the prevailing high pressure at the surface. Combined with clear skies, a very chilly night is underway across the region. Several sites are already reporting 32 degrees as of midnight. A Freeze Warning remains in effect for a bulk of the SC Lowcountry and southeastern GA. A Frost Advisory is in effect along the SC coastal counties, where frost is forecast away from the immediate coastline. These products are in effect through 9 AM. If widespread freezing temperatures occur early this morning, then this will end the local growing season and Frost/Freeze products will not be issued for tonight/early Monday morning. However, if only some areas observe freezing temperatures, then the growing season continues and we will likely need Frost/Freeze products tonight/early Monday morning. Regardless of the outcome, overnight temperatures will range from low to mid 30s across the inland counties and upper 30s to low 40s across the coastal counties. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR through the 12Z TAF period at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV. Extended Aviation Outlook: Expect VFR conditions to prevail. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: High pressure will dominate over the marine waters through tonight, yielding N winds 10 to 15 knots and seas 2 to 3 ft. Monday through Thursday: As slowly high pressure expands across the region and then eventually into the Atlantic, expect northeasterly flow to take hold of the forecast and gradually ramp up throughout the period. Wind speeds will generally range from 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kts (even 30 kts possible across the offshore waters). East-northeasterly swell will be on tap through the period as well with seas ranging from 4 to 6 ft across the nearshore waters, then 5 to 8 ft across the offshore waters. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed on Monday evening for the offshore Georgia waters, and then eventually for the nearshore South Carolina waters as well on Tuesday through the rest of the period. Mariners should stay up to date with latest marine forecast before heading offshore. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ087-088- 099>101-114-115-137-216-238. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ218-240. SC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ040-042>045- 147. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ148>152. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285608 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:27 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 523 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 445 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 - Dry air combined with ongoing drought conditions will elevate fire spread concerns across northern portions of the area through this afternoon. Residents in areas under burn bans should not conduct outdoor burning of any kind. Residents in areas without official burn bans should take extra precautions if burning outdoors. - Hazardous marine conditions are expected off and on through midweek next week. Gusts up to gale force will be possible early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 445 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 Reissued marine zones to realign, extend and make temporal changes to advisory and gale warning. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Monday night) Issued at 1151 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026 Quiet and cool night in store. By 04z temps were already down into the 40s and lower 50s across most of the area with a few isolated areas in the cooler drainage areas in the 30s. Temps will likely continue to drop a little more overnight but will slow down especially as clouds continue to build in from the west. As for the forecast the main forecast concerns is the s/w that will move into the region later today and through the region Monday along with increasing hazardous marine conditions. Our main antagonist is currently moving over the TX panhandle and it looks like it will be able to undercut the ridge overnight tonight and early Monday as it slides into the Lower MS Valley. The mid lvl jet max is still just downstream of the trough axis and thus likely why it will have enough punch to keep driving ESE. It will start to open up and merge with the deeper L/W trough just before it pushes off the east coast. The biggest problem is because of the ridging just ahead, our recent cold front, and sfc high to the north moisture will not be able to recover fast enough ahead of it but also with the orientation that this s/w takes it will lead to a majority of the strongest support remaining just off to the south. With that we will likely see a continuation of the rain remaining just south of the area. Even with a well defined disturbance because of that orientation (it is a highly positively titled trough axis by early/midday Monday) hghts actually appear to remain fairly unchanged. The best hght falls and mid the mid lvl jet will ridge the northern Gulf. Still anticipate some isolated to scattered light showers but overall the heaviest rain looks to remain just off to our west and south. This disturbance will likely lead to the development of a sfc low over the northwestern Gulf this evening but how well defined and strong it will be is uncertain. Some models are showing a small but quickly developing well defined sfc low however, there appears to be some feedback issue going on. This is also leading to rather strong easterly winds developing over much of the coastal waters and over a prolonged time frame. This seems a little aggressive especially given how small this area of low pressure may be. The bigger influence is likely the large broad sfc high building down which will be centered over KY but it will stretch from the southern Plains, south to the Gulf Coast, and east-southeast off the SC coast. Now that is not to say that there is a sfc low that develops just not as confident it will be as well defined or as deep as some of the models show. Temperatures will start to moderate tonight and Monday night however highs both today and tomorrow will likely remain fairly similar with h925 temps of 7-9C which should result in highs in the lower to mid 60s for much of the area both days. Lows will be a little warmer tonight than they will be this morning thanks to the increase in relative humidity and increasing winds. That said we will still see lows in the lower 40s to lower 50s over much of the area. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 1151 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026 Medium range models from earlier today were in very good agreement through the week however that is not what we would like to hear because that will keep the dry weather pattern in place. It looks like the next best chance for a system to bring rain may be late next weekend or the beginning of Thanksgiving week. No major disagreements with the NBM at this time so no adjustments have been made. As our disturbance continues to slide east and merge with the east coast trough we will see mid lvl ridging build in. By Wednesday morning the ridge will dominate the area from the TX coast northeast across the Lower MS Valley and into the OH and TN Valley`s. This will slowly moderate temps with highs climbing from the the lower 70s Tuesday to the mid upper 70s Wednesday and Thursday and maybe even a few locations touching 80/81 by Friday. We will also see moisture slowly creep up and thus morning lows will trend a degree or 2 warmer each morning going from near 40 and lower 50s Tuesday morning to 50s across the entire area Friday morning, maybe even a few locations remaining in the lower 60s. There will be a couple of disturbances coming out of the Pacific across the 4 corners this week. These will all basically ride just over the ridge into the central Plains and Mid MS Valley. The ridge will become elongated from southwest to northeast eventually stretching from the western Gulf to the Carolina`s but it will be stubborn and keep all rain out of the area. As we head into weekend the forecast is highly questionable as the models start to diverge as they struggle with the numerous Pac systems coming towards the region. This should eventually help lead to a more persistent west coast trough and eastern coast ridge with southwest flow aloft and hopefully some better rain potential. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 445 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 OVC cigs will cover the entire area today and begin lowering by late morning into the afternoon hours. Some virga is expected with some of these cigs today and -RA will show up at the sfc by late afternoon into the overnight hours. -RA will be timed and should remain along and west of a line from MCB to NEW to the gulf. Some cigs in this prementioned area could fall to MVFR levels while -RA is ongoing. Elsewhere, cigs and vis should remain in VFR through this taf cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 1151 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026 Winds continue to persist around 15-20 kt over most of the coastal waters. This supports Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines however a more impactful period of hazardous marine conditions looks likely late Sunday and continuing through at least the middle of next week. The approaching disturbance will support the development of a surface low over the northwestern Gulf. Combine that with high pressure building south and we will see a tightening of the pressure gradient over the northern Gulf. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 knots and seas of 6 to 10 feet will be possible across the open Gulf waters Monday, with higher gusts potentially approaching or exceeding gale force. How strong a surface low develops is in question as there may be some convective feedback leading a deeper surface lown than what may actually occur and thus we will keep the Gale Watch out for now. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all other marine areas due to the forecast persistent pressure gradient between the surface low and high pressure to the north. May not see much appreciable relief until the end of next week. /CAB/ && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ529-531>536-541-543-557-577. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight CST tonight for GMZ551-553-554-570-572-575. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ551-553-554-570-572-575. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ531>536-541-543-557-577. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight CST tonight for GMZ553-554-570-572-575. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ553-554-570-572-575. && $$ |
| #1285607 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:24 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 616 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 610 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 - Hazardous marine conditions are likely for much of this week starting on Monday. Small Craft Advisories will be needed for the Gulf waters, and occasional gusts near gale force are expected. - No additional freezes are expected for this week after this morning, and a warming trend is expected after Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 After a frosty start this morning, temperatures will rebound back into the 60s this afternoon for most areas with partly cloudy skies. High pressure centered north of the area will maintain a dry and cool northeast flow across the area. For tonight, cloud cover will increase late in the night from west to east as an upper level shortwave approaches. This cloud cover and a slight increase in moisture should keep temperatures from dropping as low as this morning, and overnight lows are expected to range from the mid 30s across the northern counties to mid 40s closer to the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 The upper level shortwave will move through on Monday with abundant cloud cover and cool northeast surface winds. The best moisture and lift are expected to remain south of the area, so rain chances are minimal despite the cloudy skies. Monday`s high temperatures will be on the cool side with the cloud cover and northeast flow. NBM temperatures for Monday may be too high, and the official forecast trended towards CONSRaw guidance. This results in highs remaining in the mid to upper 50s over a large portion of the area, except mid 60s across the far southeast big bend. Beyond Monday, a warming trend is expected with highs getting back into the 70s by the middle to end of the week with dry weather still continuing. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Patchy to areas of frost expected until 9 AM ET/8 AM CT. Winds will become more northeasterly through the afternoon with high clouds passing through. && .MARINE... Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 Hazardous marine conditions are likely for much of this week starting on Monday. A tightening pressure gradient with high pressure centered across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic will bring strong east to northeast winds to the area. Small Craft Advisories will be needed for the Gulf waters, and occasional gusts near gale force are expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 Relative humidity values will drop to near critical levels over parts of SE AL, SW GA, and the FL Big Bend again this afternoon, but winds will be light with cool temperatures. Moisture will rebound on Monday with abundant cloud cover, but little to no rain is expected. Overall, dry weather will persist amidst a warming trend through this upcoming week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 Little to no rainfall forecast precludes any hydrological concerns over the next several days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 64 43 61 47 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 64 45 61 48 / 0 0 10 0 Dothan 61 40 58 42 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 61 37 59 40 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 63 40 61 44 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 67 45 67 51 / 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 64 49 62 52 / 0 0 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-326-426. GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ120>126- 142>145. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ127>131- 146>148-155>161. AL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for ALZ065>067. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ALZ068-069. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285606 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:21 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 620 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 151 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 - Gradually increasing rain chances early in the week with scattered to numerous coverage by Tuesday-Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall possible along the coast Tuesday-Thursday. - Significant coastal and marine hazards are likely early-mid week continuing into late week as East winds increase. Winds and seas will build across the local coastal waters with rough, pounding surf and minor beach erosion possible. Expect numerous, strong life- threatening rip currents at area beaches. - Extensive flooding continues along the St. Johns River due to exceptional rainfall in the upper reaches of the basin over previous weeks. The latest river forecasts are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 151 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 Current-Mon...Another cool start to the morning with temperatures beginning in the 40s/50s. At least one more dry day today, with moisture gradually returning into Mon and an increase in PoP chances esp along the Space/Treasure coasts. Onshore flow strengthens on Mon with breezy/gusty conditions nearly areawide. An upper level disturbance moves into the Deep South on Mon and across the Florida peninsula Mon night with ISOLD-SCT showers forecast. Slightly below normal temperatures today/Mon with maxes in the L-M70s, except few U70s across the Treasure Coast. With the addition of moisture and strengthening of onshore flow our min temps overnight into Mon morning will recover into the M-U50s over the interior and L60s near the coast, except M60s along the St. Lucie/Martin coasts. For Mon night/Tue morning our lows will only fall into the U50s N/W of I-4 with 60s most everywhere else. Tue-Sat...Surface high pressure encompasses much of the eastern CONUS and combined with lower pressure across the western Atlc will produce a tight pressure gradient through much of this period. This will allow for a continuation of breezy to potentially windy onshore (gusty) winds each day remaining a bit elevated over the interior and breezy/gusty along the coast each night. An unsettled (troughy) pattern will continue aloft across the Florida peninsula with ample moisture in place. This set-up could allow for heavy rainfall (esp along the coast) at least Tue-Thu. Presently, the Weather Prediction Center has outlooked eastern FL under a Marginal threat for Excessive Rainfall these three days. Low confidence in exactly where heavy bands may set up, but we do not anticipate as much rainfall as we saw a couple of weeks ago. Much will depend on the strength/position of a low/trough forecast to develop near/east of the Bahamas early/mid week. This feature will gradually track northeast away from eastern FL, but additional impacts will include poor/hazardous boating conditions and building seas creating rough, pounding surf along the coast with minor beach erosion likely, as well as strong rip currents. Rain chances increase areawide (Tue- Fri) - highest along the coast. A low chance for lightning storms will also be forecast. By Wed, temperatures for highs will be near to slightly above climo. Low temperatures will be above normal for much of this period. && .MARINE... Issued at 151 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 Thru Thursday...With high pressure to the north and developing low pressure over the western Atlc, boating conditions will deteriorate early in the week thru late week as the pgrad tightens and onshore winds increase. Wind speeds will approach 15-25 kts with frequent higher gusts by late Mon-Thu. Seas 2-4 ft today will build 4-6 ft Mon, 5-7 ft Mon night, 6-8 ft thru Tue night, then 8-11 ft Wed-Thu. Small Craft Advisories will be necessary by Mon continuing thru much of the week as conditions remain unsettled. Moisture returns and precip chances increase gradually beginning on Mon, then ramping up to SCT-NMRS shower coverage (ISOLD lightning) Mon night thru at least Thu. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 620 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 VFR and dry conditions continue at the terminals today. NNW winds become more NE late this morning around 10 knots, continuing into the overnight hours. VCSH chances increase tomorrow, but have only added it at MCO for now after 15Z. Will continue to monitor and amend as needed. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 151 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 River flood warnings remain in effect for Cocoa (COCF1), Geneva (GENF1), and Astor (ASTF1) on the St. Johns. The river west of Cocoa is in Major Flood Stage but appears to be cresting and is now forecast to begin a slow decline next week. The other points (Deland and Sanford) are forecast to remain in Action stage which is below Minor flood stage. River forecasts out five days are issued twice daily by the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB. There is potential for additional heavy rainfall early to mid next week, but there is currently a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast. We will continue to monitor this setup and any implications for ongoing flooding. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 72 58 73 61 / 0 10 20 40 MCO 74 58 74 63 / 0 0 10 30 MLB 75 63 76 66 / 0 10 50 30 VRB 77 63 78 66 / 0 10 50 30 LEE 72 54 73 58 / 0 0 0 30 SFB 73 57 74 61 / 0 0 10 30 ORL 73 58 74 62 / 0 0 10 30 FPR 76 62 77 65 / 0 10 50 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1285604 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:15 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 610 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Edged low temperatures down a few degrees through mid week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) First freeze of the season for much of ENC away from bodies of water this morning, with frost potential elsewhere on the mainland. Cold mornings continue through mid week then a moderating trend mid to late week. 2) Dry high pres continues through much of the coming week with warm days but chilly nights and continued ongoing drought conditions. Afternoon relative humidities will be quite low but winds light. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold low-level thicknesses and strong high pressure over the region will support frost/freeze impacts across all of the mainland ENC this morning. Continued good radiational cooling through the beginning of the week will bring a freeze threat each night/morning, although a season ending freeze this morning would end the frost/freeze program for the counties the freeze occurs, and additional frost/freeze headlines may not be needed anymore. The only areas to escape frost or freezing temps tonight will be areas immediately adjacent to water bodies, including the beach communities. The risk of frost impacts may be lessened Sunday night as a weak cold front moves through which will keep the boundary layer a bit more mixed with a light breeze preventing ideal rad cooling. High pressure then reasserts itself Monday and Tuesday night, with freezing temps or frost returning once again. KEY MESSAGE 2...The aforementioned very dry airmass and low TD`s each day over the coming week will exacerbate the worsening drought conditions in place across ENC, and fortunately winds are not expected to be strong with the high nearby. However, fire weather concerns may grow with the curing vegetation combined with low RH values each afternoon. Highs will warm back to above climo in the upper 60s to low 70s mid to late week, but overnight lows will continue quite chilly and below climo with the dry high pres cont to dominate all week. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Unremarkable weather for aviation interests today as high pressure continues to dominate the area keeping skies clear and winds W to NW at under 10 kt through the period. A weak front will cross the region tonight bringing an uptick in clouds at around 5-6 kft but no precipitation, along with a shift in winds from the NW to the N/NNE. The wind shift may have the occasional gust up to 15 kt for coastal terminals but will be of little to no consequence for inland locales. Outlook (Monday through Thursday): Light north to northeast winds are expected to continue into much of next week as high pressure remains centered to the north of the area. && .MARINE... The nwrly gradient cont to weaken and winds are in the 5-15 kt range, with some gusts aoa 20 kt over the Gulf Stream where better mixing occuring. Seas cont to subside, with the last of 6 ft seas across the ctrl waters as of late this evening. All nearshore marine zones will be in the 2-5 ft range by daybreak today. A reinforcing cold front will drop through late Sunday night into Monday morning. This front is expected to lead to a brief bump up in winds as it moves through. Some 25+ kt wind gusts may mix over the Gulf Stream waters, generally south of C Hatteras, but will not issue any SCA headlines attm, and wait to see model trends for this possibility. Seas may briefly get a bump up with this northerly surge as well and inc to 6+ ft over the Gulf. Outlook (Monday through Thursday): After Monday`s wind surge, general N to NE winds of 10-20kt are expected for much of the upcoming week as high pressure remains anchored to the north while a broad area of low pressure resides to the south well offshore of the Southeast U.S. Seas appear to remain below 6 ft for the nearshore coastal waters. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ029-044-045- 079-080-090>092-193>195-198-199. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ046-047-081- 094-196. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285603 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:06 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 552 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Inland Freeze & Frost This Morning. Freeze Warning for Jeff Davis, Appling, Bacon & Coffee Counties. Frost Advisory: Inland Southeast Georgia & Portions of Inland Northeast Florida - Marine & Surf Zone Hazards Return Monday. Small Craft Advisory Late Monday through Friday. High Risk for Rip Currents & Rough Surf && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights through Tonight: - Freezing temperatures inland SE GA, with frost potential over much of SE GA this morning After a frosty and chilly morning, temperatures will rise into the 60s area-wide today with mostly sunny skies as winds shift northeasterly. Low temperatures Sunday night won`t be as cold, but will drip into the upper 30s across portions of inland southeast Georgia, and in the 40s for the rest of inland areas. Near the coast and St. Johns river basin, lows will stay in the lower to mid 50s. Some patchy frost will be possible early Monday morning over far inland southeast Georgia. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Coastal Hazards Increase Monday Night & Tuesday Persistent and strengthening high pressure will be the main synoptic feature for the short term period, as the high center slowly shifts more towards our north as compared to the northwest. The second feature will be a shortwave trough moving eastward across the northern Gulf of Monday, moving across our region Monday Night and Tuesday. After a mostly dry but cloudy Monday, chances for showers increase near the coast and south/eastern areas Monday Night and through Tuesday as the upper level energy induces a weak inverted trough to form east of the Florida peninsula and therefore tightening the pressure gradient, setting up another northeasterly wind event. The good news is our astronomical tide cycle is generally approaching a new moon, and therefore little to no tidal flooding impacts are expected. However, continuous modest onshore flow will return elevated rip current potential as well as rough surf at area beaches (especially northeast FL beaches). High temps will top out in the 60s to low 70s each day, with Monday being towards the lower end thanks to the increase in cloud cover. There will be quite the gradient with mornings lows both Monday and Tuesday Morning thanks to the onshore flow, as interior GA and parts of the Upper Suwannee River Valley will see lows mainly in the 40s, quickly trending towards the 50s to near 60 further south and east. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Increasing Coastal and Marine Hazards Persistent northeast to east surface winds dominate Tuesday through Thursday as strong high pressure remains to the north and inverted troughing persists east of the area. There is also potential for a surface low forming toward the southeast Bahamas late week that tracks northeastward, though this would likely be non tropical in nature as a result of the aforementioned upper trough/low. Regardless, effects from this trough/low would essentially only maintain the enhanced pressure gradient across the area through mid week. Not much of a threat of coastal flooding with this next event since we between full and new moon phases. Similar to what was mentioned in the short term, the setup will mainly drive hazardous marine conditions for the Atlantic coast, including rough surf, high rip current risk and dangerous marine conditions for boaters. Elevated rain chances will persist for the coastal northeast FL area mid to late week, with the potential for occasional heavier downpours for Flagler and St Johns counties. High pressure starts to break down towards next weekend. Temperatures overall trend near average mid week before leaning above normal late week and the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... VFR conditions to prevail this TAF period. Winds will become more northeasterly by Sunday afternoon with gusts near 20 knots at SGJ. && .MARINE... High pressure will build toward the northwest this weekend. The high will become centered more to the north early next week, with weak troughing developing over the coastal waters. This pattern will then persist through much of the upcoming week. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to begin late Monday, then continue through the week. Rip Currents: SE GA: Low through Sunday. NE FL: Moderate Sunday. Rip currents will trend toward a high risk early next week, and continuing through the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Cool and dry conditions are expected to generally moderate over the next few days as onshore flow remains persistent. This will especially be the case Monday and into Tuesday as the flow strengthens a bit, with chances for showers as well over south and east areas. Dispersions will remain in the fair to good range overall daily through Tuesday, despite more cloud cover for most. Northeasterly flow then looks to continue into mid week, with little change in the pattern expected through at least late week. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected through the weekend. Patchy frost will be possible over far inland southeast GA early Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 61 38 61 42 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 62 50 65 54 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 65 45 68 53 / 0 0 0 10 SGJ 66 56 70 60 / 0 0 0 50 GNV 68 47 70 53 / 0 0 0 20 OCF 69 50 72 55 / 0 0 0 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024- 030-035-120-220-322-422-522. GA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ136-149- 151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>135. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285602 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:51 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 546 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated 12z TAF/Aviation Discussion. Nudged temperatures down slightly, with increased cloud cover this afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Frost and Freeze headlines are in effect for portions of Eastern Virginia and Northeast North Carolina late tonight through later this morning. Dry, chilly weather continues through Tuesday, before temperatures moderate for mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 225 AM EST Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Frost and Freeze headlines remain in effect through early this morning for portions of eastern Virginia and northeast North Carolina. Chilly weather continues through Tuesday, with additional frost or freeze headlines possible tonight where the growing season remains active. Early morning weather analysis shows an upper-level low still in place from Atlantic Canada into coastal New England, with a strong attending trough extending south into the eastern Gulf Coast. At the surface, 1028+ mb high pressure centered over the mid-Mississippi River Valley continues to slowly build east behind a surface trough axis oriented well offshore. Temperatures as of this writing are mainly in the low to mid 30s just inland from the Chesapeake Bay west to the VA piedmont, with mid 30s to low 40s along the immediate coast, including the Lower Eastern Shore. While skies have cleared out this morning, the boundary layer has remained mixed just enough to hold up temperatures along the coast. However, still expect winds to relax a bit just inland, where a Freeze Warning remains in place from Bertie County, NC up to the City of Suffolk. A Frost Advisory also remains in effect just to the east, across interior portions of eastern Virginia and coastal northeast North Carolina, where the growing season has not yet technically ended. The growing season will end across most of our counties today, leaving only northeast North Carolina counties east of the Chowan River along with Chesapeake, Norfolk, Portsmouth, and Virginia Beach active until later this month. An updated Public Information Statement will be issued later this morning. Very little change in sensible weather through tomorrow, as the surface high slowly slides east and the upper-level low gradually weakens. After a sunny start, clouds will once again increase late this morning and this afternoon. Nudged forecast highs down slightly, as guidance has been slightly too warm given the persistent stratocumulus deck over the past few days. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the low to mid 50s. Clearing skies and a relaxing pressure gradient tonight will allow lows to fall into the lower 30s inland and mid to upper 30s along the coast. While not quite as breezy as yesterday, NNW winds will nevertheless occasionally gust to 15-20 mph this afternoon, before quickly diminishing after sunset. Dry weather looks to prevail throughout the week ahead, as high pressure builds into the area and becomes anchored overhead for the mid to late week period. Aloft, the trough looks to finally move offshore by late Monday into Tuesday, with upstream ridging building in behind it. This pattern will support a moderating temperature trend from midweek into next weekend. Forecast highs reach the mid 60s by Wednesday, warming into the upper 60s to near 70 inland Thursday through Sunday. Even as the air mass turns milder, dry conditions and efficient radiational cooling under clear skies and light winds should still allow morning lows to fall into the lower 30s across inland areas, with upper 30s to low 40s closer to the coast. Unfortunately, there remains little to no prospect for welcome rainfall over the next week to 10 days. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 545 AM EST Sunday... VFR conditions across area terminals this morning will prevail through the 12z/15 TAF period. Clouds have cleared this morning as expected, as high pressure builds to the west. A mainly clear sky persists over the area through mid-morning, when clouds begin to increase again due to the NW flow and the persistent upper low over the eastern seaboard. CIGs remain in VFR range, but become BKN once again for a majority of the area by early to mid afternoon (bases ~5 to 7 kft AGL). Winds remain light early this morning, but become gusty (~20 knots) again by late morning into this afternoon. Outlook: VFR conditions are favored through midweek, as high pressure builds over the region. Gusty NW winds, gradually diminishing tonight. && .MARINE... As of 225 AM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories continue through this morning for the coastal waters and through this afternoon for the Chesapeake Bay. - High pressure builds into the region this afternoon through at least Thursday with sub-advisory conditions expected. Latest analysis shows high pressure centered over the MS Valley early this morning. Winds are NW around 20 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt over the Ches. Bay and coastal waters. Waves are 1-3 ft with seas of 2-4 ft in the coastal waters and 4-7 ft beyond 60 nm. NW winds will diminish today to ~15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, remaining out of the NW. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through 7 AM for the coastal waters and through 1 PM for the Chesapeake Bay. Will note that gusts to ~20 kt may be possible this afternoon and evening in the Ches. Bay, as another surge of CAA filters in. This looks to be marginal and confidence is too low to extend SCAs in the Ches. Bay at this time. Will continue to monitor trends and obs. High pressure builds into the region this evening through at least Thursday, allowing for benign marine conditions to return. NW winds of ~15 kt are expected on Monday with light NNW winds around 5-10 kt (gusts to 15 kt in the southern coastal waters) on Tuesday. Winds will be light and variable Wednesday and Thursday. Seas will average 2-3 ft with 1-2 ft waves. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ014-030. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ015>017-031- 032. VA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ529. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ076-084-085- 090-097-098-517>523. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658. && $$ |
| #1285601 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:51 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 542 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 538 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 - A shift of surface winds to a northeasterly direction this afternoon will moderate temperatures, increase cloud cover, and bring low end rain chances to the Palm Beaches tonight. - A prolonged period of dangerous marine and beach conditions may occur across the region beginning on Monday. - While confidence remains low, increasing shower and thunderstorm chances could bring periods of heavy rain to the east coast of South Florida beginning on Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 241 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 South Florida remains entrenched in a cool and dry post-frontal air mass as we saw low temperatures yesterday morning drop into the low 50s around Lake Okeechobee and over the interior and into the upper 50s/low 60s across our Naples and east coast metros. According to WPC`s latest surface analysis, a 1027-1028 mb surface ridge of continental high pressure continues to be centered a little over 1,000 miles to our northwest over the Mid to Upper Mississippi River Valley, which is currently inducing a light northerly wind down the Florida peninsula early this morning. This is typically a setup for us here in South Florida that favors a process called "peninsular drainage flow", where the prevailing wind direction is nearly parallel to our peninsula and ultimately negates any type of warm maritime influence that could otherwise prevent our temperatures from cooling further. Surface obs over Glades County currently show temperature readings in the low 50s with a light and variable wind, which could ultimately set the stage for a few locations to potentially drop into the upper 40s this morning given not only the aforementioned observations, but also the nearest ACARS sounding (KRSW - Fort Myers Southwest Florida Int`l Airport) starting to showing the development of a surface inversion and point-soundings from mesoscale models also suggesting the same. Despite us continuing to have mid to upper-level clouds stream into the region this morning from southwest to northeast as seen on CLD (Cloud-Top Phase) satellite with the lingering presence of a subtropical jet with embedded moisture, it does not appear as if this will have an adverse effect on the low-temperature forecast. We should be waking up at around daybreak to temperatures in the upper 40s west of Lake Okeechobee (maybe even extending slightly southward towards Hendry and northern Collier Counties), in the low to mid 50s across interior and Southwest Florida, and in the upper 50s/low 60s across the east coast metros. Not necessarily falling-iguana criteria, but still relatively chilly for South Florida standards! Regional ACARS and the 00Z MFL soundings both continue to show a profound dry slot from the surface up through around 550-600 mb or so with higher saturation in the mid to upper-levels of the atmosphere due to the aforementioned persisting presence of a moist subtropical jet stream, but forecast soundings show this moist layer gradually eroding away into this afternoon as drier air begins to work its way into South Florida. At the same time, the area of high pressure located over the Mississippi Valley will slowly start to expand eastward towards the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley, allowing our winds here in South Florida to become northeasterly. Limited cloud cover on infrared satellite projections over the Midwest; strong radiational cooling with plenty of cold, Arctic air still in place; and upper-level convergence provided by the downstream flow of the same large upper trough that helped to facilitate the cooldown we are currently experiencing here in South Florida will all allow surface pressures to increase and for the high to strengthen (MSLPs of roughly 1031-1033 mb falling within the 96th and 90-97th percentiles for the date according to REFS and NAEFS ensemble guidance, respectively). At the same time, an extremely elongated piece of vorticity associated with a sharp, negatively-tilted trough stretching across the Northern and Central Rockies will look to splinter in two, with the southernmost fragment of vorticity expected to congeal and subsequently take the form of a shortwave trough over the Southern Plains (and as a result, aid in the development of a surface low just offshore of Galveston Bay in Texas, which is supported by deterministic model guidance). In response to all this, we will see a fortification in our surface flow beginning tonight with the NBM showing sustained NE winds of 10- 15 kts over the local waters and along the immediate Atlantic/Gulf coasts of South Florida and gusts of 15-20 kts. With our winds veering out the northeast in tandem with peak daytime heating, the warm Gulf Stream waters should act to moderate our temperatures as highs are forecast to generally climb into the mid-upper 70s area- wide to near 80 degrees in some southernmost locations furthest downstream from this flow. Won`t be as cool as yesterday, but still pleasantly within just a few degrees of average for this time of year. With this northeasterly flow starting to advect some more low- level moisture into our region that should stay relatively confined to the first 3,000-6,000 feet of the atmosphere (and with the gradual depletion of the mid to upper-level saturation), we should revert back to seeing more of those shallow-layer, fair-weather cumulus clouds in the sky as they stream in from the Atlantic periodically throughout the day. Most of the period will again feature dry conditions with near-zero PoPs, however, guidance is starting to hint at the possibility of perhaps a few developing showers over our northernmost Atlantic waters by tonight, some of which could graze the coast of Palm Beach County downwind of our prevailing NE flow past sundown. This is coincident with a modest, yet gradual, increase that we will see in our PWATs from 0.7-0.9" this morning and afternoon to 0.9-1.1" by this evening. Albeit with the latter still being below average at around the 30-40th percentile for climatology, it will be just enough to at least start pumping out a few, low-topped marine showers. PoPs of 10-15% have been introduced, particularly along coastal Palm Beach County, tonight into early Monday to address this. The surface low pressure system that will develop in the northwestern Gulf offshore of Texas tonight (as well as its attendant parent shortwave trough from which it originated) will continue to advance eastward across the northern/central Gulf on Monday with an eventual route towards South Florida. Deterministic model guidance does not show the associated moisture plume with this atmospheric disturbance reaching South Florida until late Monday afternoon or early evening, with forecast soundings still showing plenty of residual dry air in our atmospheric column minus the first kilometer or two due to the lingering onshore flow continuing to advect Atlantic moisture into our region. With it now being the second day that we will at least have some saturation in the lower levels of the atmosphere, it will continue to be possible, similar to tonight, for a few showers to make their way onshore primarily into Palm Beach or perhaps even northern Broward along our ongoing NE flow through Monday afternoon. PoPs of 20-40% will be in place across these specified regions, before increasing more notably as we cross over into the long term section of this AFD with the moisture plume from the aforementioned shortwave and surface low arriving in South Florida. Winds will also start to increase more dramatically on Monday across South Florida as the anomalously strong continental high pressure previously mentioned in this discussion responsible for our veering surface flow shifts eastward once again, now towards the Mid to Upper Ohio River Valley, and continues to strengthen with forecast MSLPs of 1034-1036 mb falling to below the 2nd percentile for November 16th climatology as per ensemble guidance. This, coupled with the eastward advancement of our shortwave + surface low duo threat across the Northern/Central Gulf, will create a locally tight pressure gradient between the two weather features across our region. NBM has our NE surface flow increasing to 10-20 mph with gusts of up to 25 mph. With continued air mass moderation courtesy of our onshore flow, low temperatures on Monday morning across South Florida will not be as chilly as previous instances, dropping into the mid to upper 50s around the Lake, into the low to mid 60s over the interior and across Southwest Florida, and into the upper 60s across the east coast metros. Highs will generally climb into the upper 70s to low 80s area-wide with a few locations in SW Florida closely approaching the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 241 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 OVERVIEW & IMPACTS... Forecast confidence has continued to increase in a prolonged duration of dangerous marine and beach conditions across South Florida and vicinity waters this week. The latest 00z model suite now depicts a ramp up of gusty surface winds across the region beginning on Monday night with a persistence of these conditions for the remainder of the work week. Before we discuss the "why" and how model guidance members differ on the atmospheric setup, let`s cut straight to discussing impacts. Gusty northeasterly surface winds could support the threat of life threatening rip currents and surf at Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach beaches, as well as hazardous marine conditions for small craft across all local waters of South Florida. In addition, forecast model guidance hints at the potential of coastal & frictional convergence along the east coast of South Florida during the middle to late portion of the work week. Forecast model soundings during this time frame show a classic skinny CAPE profile, good low to middle level saturation (>80%), and opposing 1km to 6km wind directions. Given that we remain outside of the reliable convection allowing models (CAMs) forecast window and the evolution of surface features could still vary, the predictability of the likelihood and severity of higher end rainfall maxima`s remains low. While the Weather Prediction Center (WPC)`s latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) for the next seven days depicts widespread totals of 1.0 to 1.5 inches along the east coast of South Florida, a reasonable worst case scenario (one that favors a setup of coastal & frictional convergence) could produce several inches of rainfall across isolated locations along the east coast of South Florida. The Weather Prediction Center has placed portions of the east coast of South Florida in a Marginal risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) beginning on Tuesday and continuing through Thursday. This means that there is a 5-14% chance of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding within 25 miles of a given point in the highlighted areas. Forecasted rainfall totals may shift in value over the next couple of days which is standard in a complex pattern, so be sure to not anchor to specific range of projected rainfall values. The main takeaway is that aside from marine and beach impacts, there is at least some level of threat of heavy rainfall along the east coast of South Florida during the middle to late portion of this week. Stay tuned to the latest forecast from NWS Miami as the atmospheric setup discussed in detail (further below) becomes more clear. DETAILED SYNOPSIS... A robust mid-level shortwave and accompanying sub-tropical jet- streak is forecast to slowly transit across the eastern Gulf and Florida Peninsula during much of the upcoming work week. Both deterministic (ECMWF and GFS) as well as ensemble (ECENS & GEFS) have trended with a slow progression of this feature across the region, keeping upper level forcing and dynamics directly overhead of the region. The trend of a slower propagation of the short-wave aside, some model members even depict the potential of mid-level vorticity becoming cut-off from the larger long-wave pattern. Why does this matter? A longer duration of favorable dynamics (cold 500mb temperatures, steep low to mid level lapse rates, upper level divergence) aloft of our region could set the stage when combined with sufficient instability and moisture for periods of both diurnal and nocturnal shower and thunderstorm activity along the immediate east coast of South Florida for much of the upcoming work week. During the mid-week period, a strengthening pressure gradient between 1) an expansive ridge of high pressure across much of the eastern United States and 2) a frontal boundary to our south over the southeastern Gulf and Greater Antilles is forecast to result in gusty northeasterly wind flow across all of South Florida. The highest wind speeds are projected over the local waters and along the immediate coastline of southeastern Florida before surface friction acts to reduce wind speeds at the surface further inland. This enhancement of onshore winds coupled with the pooling of low level boundary moisture across South Florida could set the stage for increasing spatial and temporal coverage of showers (and heavy rainfall) along the east coast of South Florida. The implications of friction will also play a role in any threat of heavy rainfall during this period that will primarily focus across Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach metro areas. As air slows along the coast due to increased friction, ascent is maximized as air parcels converge and are forced to rise. Combining this mesoscale forcing with a potential gradient of instability along the immediate coastline, sufficient boundary layer moisture, and the synoptic kinematics (discussed in the totality of this synopsis) could set the stage for repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms across our east coast metro locales. With soil moisture values across Palm Beach and Broward counties still in the 70-90th percentile, repeated rounds of heavy rainfall could result in localized flooding concerns and a marginal risk of flash flooding across urban areas. Outside of forecast model soundings and QPF cluster analysis, coastal convergence is a mesoscale phenomena that is best modeled within the near-term time horizon of the CAMs. Speaking of QPF clusters, while discrepancies remain between ensemble members, the 90th percentile (reasonable worst case scenario) for all clusters suggests a 1 in 10 potential of several inches of rainfall occurring at isolated locations across the east coast of South Florida Wednesday into Friday. The placement of the right entrance region of a poleward sub- tropical jet streak over the western Atlantic waters and northwestern/central Bahamas will set the stage for an area of favorable upper level divergence. Model guidance (ECENS & GEFS) has come into better agreement for the gradual development of a surface low along a stationary frontal boundary across the Bahamas during this time frame as low level convergence is maximized. Model solutions now depict a gradual deepening of the surface low pressure system with the low gradually lifting to the northeast beginning on Thursday and continuing into the upcoming weekend. The development of a surface low to our southeast could eventually usher in a reinforcing surge of continental dry air via cyclonic northerly surface flow as it lifts further away from the region late in the work week into the upcoming weekend. The modification of the airmass in place across South Florida is forecast to continue which will result in a continuation of a gradual warming trend across the region with maximum temperatures forecast to reach the low to mid 80s each afternoon through next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 538 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 NW winds 5-10 kts becoming NE around 10 kts this afternoon. A few coastal showers possible tonight and overnight, with the highest chances in Palm Beach. && .MARINE... Issued at 241 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 A gentle to moderate north-northeasterly wind flow will be in place across the Atlantic and Gulf waters today, increasing to a moderate to fresh flow out of the east-northeast tonight. Moderate to fresh northeasterly flow remains in place across the Gulf waters on Monday, increasing to a fresh to strong breeze across the Atlantic waters. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters today will be between 3-5 feet and 2-3 feet, respectively. Seas increase to 5-8 feet across the Atlantic on Monday and to 2-5 feet across the Gulf, and will continue to increase into the middle of the upcoming work week as northeasterly winds strengthen across the region. && .BEACHES... Issued at 241 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 An elevated risk of rip currents will develop along the east coast beaches of South Florida today and could persist into much of the upcoming work week due to a prolonged period of gusty onshore winds. The moderate risk of rip currents at east coast beaches is forecast to become high beginning on Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 68 81 72 / 10 10 20 40 West Kendall 80 66 81 71 / 10 10 10 30 Opa-Locka 80 66 81 70 / 10 10 20 40 Homestead 80 68 81 71 / 0 10 20 40 Fort Lauderdale 79 68 79 71 / 10 10 20 40 N Ft Lauderdale 79 68 80 71 / 10 10 20 40 Pembroke Pines 81 66 82 69 / 10 10 20 40 West Palm Beach 79 66 79 69 / 10 20 40 50 Boca Raton 78 68 79 70 / 10 10 30 40 Naples 78 62 81 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285600 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:45 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 537 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Prolonged period of dry and quiet weather with moderating temperatures next week leading to increasingly mild afternoons with cool nights. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Prolonged period of dry and quiet weather with moderating temperatures next week leading to increasingly mild afternoons with cool nights. Sunshine should be more abundant today compared to yesterday as we are increasingly removed from the mid level trough, though its effects will linger. We`ll continue to see diurnal clouds pop up and we`ll have efficient mixing up to near 800mb. This will pull down some breezy NW gusts, generally 20-25 mph. Combined with highs in the upper 40s it will feel closer to the low to mid 40s for most, mid 30s in the slopes of the Berkshires. There is good consensus amongst the guidance that this coming week will be dominated by a very broad surface high pressure/mid level ridging pattern with troughing over the intermountain west. Rising heights will lead to warming temperatures and keep skies mostly sunny, especially Tuesday and beyond. Dry NW flow around the high will lead to chilly low temperatures exacerbated at times by radiational cooling while highs warm well above average, into the 60s by mid to late week. Eventually a dry cold front cools the airmass down just a bit late week but no arctic intrusions on the horizon. Overall a fantastic stretch of weather for late November if you`re looking to get outside and enjoy some relatively warmer days. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12z TAF Update: Sunday...High confidence. VFR. NW winds increase to around 10-13 kt with gusts in low 20s kt range by 14-16z. Sunday night...High confidence. VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts. Monday...High confidence. VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Monday: High confidence. NW wind gusts just below SCA criteria today with seas 2-4 ft all waters and good visibility. High pressure moves closer on Monday lessening winds with seas 1-3 ft. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285599 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:36 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 527 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for the 12Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dry weather will persist for most of the upcoming week. Below normal temperatures with frost and/or freeze conditions are expected each night and early morning through the middle of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather will persist for most of the upcoming week. Below normal temperatures with frost and/or freeze conditions are expected each night and early morning through the middle of the upcoming week. The mid/upper trough will deamplify, but linger across the eastern U.S. through at least Tuesday, with the axis shifting toward the east as a well amplified ridge extends from the Gulf Coast across the OH Valley and into the Great Lakes region. Moisture will remain very limited with this pattern, especially with the surface high also helping to suppress any return flow through the upcoming week. This period of dry weather will add to the rainfall deficiencies the area has experienced so far this year. ILM`s departure from normal is more than 11 inches, Florence and Lumberton more than 10 inches, and more than 20 inches in the Myrtle Beach area! In addition to the dry conditions, the swath of cold air supported by high pressure over the MS valley will result in freezing temperatures early this morning. Coastal areas are expected to be slightly warmer, but will experience areas of frost, especially away from the beaches. As a result, the inland Freeze Warning and coastal Frost Advisory remain in effect until 9 AM EST this morning. Frost looks likely again tonight into early Monday morning, with a few spots reaching freezing again. Frost is a good bet late each night into the early morning, especially inland areas through the middle of the upcoming week. Temperatures climb above normal by about Thursday or so. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR through the 12Z TAF period with NW winds veering to N later today and tonight about 10 kt or less. Extended Outlook...VFR through Thursday. && .MARINE... Through Thursday...Gentle to moderate breeze out of the NW will gradually veer to the N this evening, then NE by Monday. NE flow locks in through Thursday, remaining consistent at a moderate breeze along the coastal waters out 20 nm, up to a fresh breeze out 60 nm. Seas improve to 1-3 ft through tonight, before increasing to 2-3 ft along the coastal waters, 4-5 ft along the offshore waters out 60 nm by Tuesday. Seas should continue to increase Wednesday and Thursday, up to 2-4 ft along the coastal waters, 5-6 ft along the offshore waters. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ087-096-099- 105-109. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ106>108-110. SC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-055-058-059. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285597 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:24 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 413 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Upper Keys as ponding of salt water over low lying roads will continue, especially around times of high tide. - Drier and cooler weather expected to continue today with highs similar or a couple degrees warmer than Saturday. - Breezy conditions are expected to return by Sunday night as a strong high pressure settles along the Eastern Seaboard and builds south across our area. Expect wind conditions to develop as early as Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 413 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 It`s been another uneventful overnight across the Florida Keys. The air mass that came in behind yesterday`s front over-performed in some aspects. While we expected drier air to rush in, the magnitude was a lot drier than anticipated. Relative humidity values fell in the afternoon yesterday, recovered slightly, then fell even further during the first half of the overnight. Some island communities got to as low as 45% relative humidity. Since then, winds have gradually begun turning more towards the east and this is ushering in better low level moisture. With that being said, we will still be relatively drier thanks to the front. On top of that, subsidence has settled in and will likely keep rain chances below 10 percent for the island chain. Across the Straits of Florida, chances will be marginally better thanks to the warm currents of Gulf Stream. Otherwise, the mid and high deck that has been with us for what seems like days now, will also slide east today and we should see a fair amount of sunshine. Looking slightly ahead, a surface high currently in the Mississippi River Valley is going to be slowly moving eastward today. It`s motion is slower than what models had previously depicted and looks to now settle along the Eastern Seaboard about 12 hours later. This will translate into a slower climb in winds locally for our area. However, do not be fooled, once the high settles along the Eastern Seaboard it will build southward and tighten the pressure gradient across the region. As such, we will see breezy conditions Sunday night into Monday, becoming windy! && .MARINE... Issued at 413 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 A weak nocturnal surge remains ongoing this morning with the strongest breezes across mainly the Florida Bay and waters off the Upper Keys. Here we have been observing moderate to briefly fresh breezes. We have a couple more hours to go before the surge dissipates but we have likely reached the peak or will be in the next hour. As high pressure moves out of the Mississippi River Valley later today, the pressure gradient across the Keys will initially weaken, allowing for breezes to further slacken later today. It will then slowly move eastward and settle along the Eastern Seaboard starting Monday. This is a slower motion than what was forecast yesterday. As a result fresh to strong breezes may take until late Monday to develop across the region. Still anticipating a prolonged period of fresh to strong breezes for much of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 413 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 VFR conditions expected today with slackening northeast winds (less than 10 knots) this morning. This will be brief and expecting winds to gradually increase and become more easterly this evening. There will be an increase in low level moisture but confidence on shower coverage reaching the island terminals is too low at this point and will leave for future amendments. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 80 73 82 73 / 10 10 10 20 Marathon 80 73 82 74 / 10 10 10 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285596 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:06 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 249 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 241 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 - A shift of surface winds to a northeasterly direction this afternoon will moderate temperatures, increase cloud cover, and bring low end rain chances to the Palm Beaches tonight. - A prolonged period of dangerous marine and beach conditions may occur across the region beginning on Monday. - While confidence remains low, increasing shower and thunderstorm chances could bring periods of heavy rain to the east coast of South Florida beginning on Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 241 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 South Florida remains entrenched in a cool and dry post-frontal air mass as we saw low temperatures yesterday morning drop into the low 50s around Lake Okeechobee and over the interior and into the upper 50s/low 60s across our Naples and east coast metros. According to WPC`s latest surface analysis, a 1027-1028 mb surface ridge of continental high pressure continues to be centered a little over 1,000 miles to our northwest over the Mid to Upper Mississippi River Valley, which is currently inducing a light northerly wind down the Florida peninsula early this morning. This is typically a setup for us here in South Florida that favors a process called "peninsular drainage flow", where the prevailing wind direction is nearly parallel to our peninsula and ultimately negates any type of warm maritime influence that could otherwise prevent our temperatures from cooling further. Surface obs over Glades County currently show temperature readings in the low 50s with a light and variable wind, which could ultimately set the stage for a few locations to potentially drop into the upper 40s this morning given not only the aforementioned observations, but also the nearest ACARS sounding (KRSW - Fort Myers Southwest Florida Int`l Airport) starting to showing the development of a surface inversion and point-soundings from mesoscale models also suggesting the same. Despite us continuing to have mid to upper-level clouds stream into the region this morning from southwest to northeast as seen on CLD (Cloud-Top Phase) satellite with the lingering presence of a subtropical jet with embedded moisture, it does not appear as if this will have an adverse effect on the low-temperature forecast. We should be waking up at around daybreak to temperatures in the upper 40s west of Lake Okeechobee (maybe even extending slightly southward towards Hendry and northern Collier Counties), in the low to mid 50s across interior and Southwest Florida, and in the upper 50s/low 60s across the east coast metros. Not necessarily falling-iguana criteria, but still relatively chilly for South Florida standards! Regional ACARS and the 00Z MFL soundings both continue to show a profound dry slot from the surface up through around 550-600 mb or so with higher saturation in the mid to upper-levels of the atmosphere due to the aforementioned persisting presence of a moist subtropical jet stream, but forecast soundings show this moist layer gradually eroding away into this afternoon as drier air begins to work its way into South Florida. At the same time, the area of high pressure located over the Mississippi Valley will slowly start to expand eastward towards the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley, allowing our winds here in South Florida to become northeasterly. Limited cloud cover on infrared satellite projections over the Midwest; strong radiational cooling with plenty of cold, Arctic air still in place; and upper-level convergence provided by the downstream flow of the same large upper trough that helped to facilitate the cooldown we are currently experiencing here in South Florida will all allow surface pressures to increase and for the high to strengthen (MSLPs of roughly 1031-1033 mb falling within the 96th and 90-97th percentiles for the date according to REFS and NAEFS ensemble guidance, respectively). At the same time, an extremely elongated piece of vorticity associated with a sharp, negatively-tilted trough stretching across the Northern and Central Rockies will look to splinter in two, with the southernmost fragment of vorticity expected to congeal and subsequently take the form of a shortwave trough over the Southern Plains (and as a result, aid in the development of a surface low just offshore of Galveston Bay in Texas, which is supported by deterministic model guidance). In response to all this, we will see a fortification in our surface flow beginning tonight with the NBM showing sustained NE winds of 10- 15 kts over the local waters and along the immediate Atlantic/Gulf coasts of South Florida and gusts of 15-20 kts. With our winds veering out the northeast in tandem with peak daytime heating, the warm Gulf Stream waters should act to moderate our temperatures as highs are forecast to generally climb into the mid-upper 70s area- wide to near 80 degrees in some southernmost locations furthest downstream from this flow. Won`t be as cool as yesterday, but still pleasantly within just a few degrees of average for this time of year. With this northeasterly flow starting to advect some more low- level moisture into our region that should stay relatively confined to the first 3,000-6,000 feet of the atmosphere (and with the gradual depletion of the mid to upper-level saturation), we should revert back to seeing more of those shallow-layer, fair-weather cumulus clouds in the sky as they stream in from the Atlantic periodically throughout the day. Most of the period will again feature dry conditions with near-zero PoPs, however, guidance is starting to hint at the possibility of perhaps a few developing showers over our northernmost Atlantic waters by tonight, some of which could graze the coast of Palm Beach County downwind of our prevailing NE flow past sundown. This is coincident with a modest, yet gradual, increase that we will see in our PWATs from 0.7-0.9" this morning and afternoon to 0.9-1.1" by this evening. Albeit with the latter still being below average at around the 30-40th percentile for climatology, it will be just enough to at least start pumping out a few, low-topped marine showers. PoPs of 10-15% have been introduced, particularly along coastal Palm Beach County, tonight into early Monday to address this. The surface low pressure system that will develop in the northwestern Gulf offshore of Texas tonight (as well as its attendant parent shortwave trough from which it originated) will continue to advance eastward across the northern/central Gulf on Monday with an eventual route towards South Florida. Deterministic model guidance does not show the associated moisture plume with this atmospheric disturbance reaching South Florida until late Monday afternoon or early evening, with forecast soundings still showing plenty of residual dry air in our atmospheric column minus the first kilometer or two due to the lingering onshore flow continuing to advect Atlantic moisture into our region. With it now being the second day that we will at least have some saturation in the lower levels of the atmosphere, it will continue to be possible, similar to tonight, for a few showers to make their way onshore primarily into Palm Beach or perhaps even northern Broward along our ongoing NE flow through Monday afternoon. PoPs of 20-40% will be in place across these specified regions, before increasing more notably as we cross over into the long term section of this AFD with the moisture plume from the aforementioned shortwave and surface low arriving in South Florida. Winds will also start to increase more dramatically on Monday across South Florida as the anomalously strong continental high pressure previously mentioned in this discussion responsible for our veering surface flow shifts eastward once again, now towards the Mid to Upper Ohio River Valley, and continues to strengthen with forecast MSLPs of 1034-1036 mb falling to below the 2nd percentile for November 16th climatology as per ensemble guidance. This, coupled with the eastward advancement of our shortwave + surface low duo threat across the Northern/Central Gulf, will create a locally tight pressure gradient between the two weather features across our region. NBM has our NE surface flow increasing to 10-20 mph with gusts of up to 25 mph. With continued air mass moderation courtesy of our onshore flow, low temperatures on Monday morning across South Florida will not be as chilly as previous instances, dropping into the mid to upper 50s around the Lake, into the low to mid 60s over the interior and across Southwest Florida, and into the upper 60s across the east coast metros. Highs will generally climb into the upper 70s to low 80s area-wide with a few locations in SW Florida closely approaching the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 241 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 OVERVIEW & IMPACTS... Forecast confidence has continued to increase in a prolonged duration of dangerous marine and beach conditions across South Florida and vicinity waters this week. The latest 00z model suite now depicts a ramp up of gusty surface winds across the region beginning on Monday night with a persistence of these conditions for the remainder of the work week. Before we discuss the "why" and how model guidance members differ on the atmospheric setup, let`s cut straight to discussing impacts. Gusty northeasterly surface winds could support the threat of life threatening rip currents and surf at Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach beaches, as well as hazardous marine conditions for small craft across all local waters of South Florida. In addition, forecast model guidance hints at the potential of coastal & frictional convergence along the east coast of South Florida during the middle to late portion of the work week. Forecast model soundings during this time frame show a classic skinny CAPE profile, good low to middle level saturation (>80%), and opposing 1km to 6km wind directions. Given that we remain outside of the reliable convection allowing models (CAMs) forecast window and the evolution of surface features could still vary, the predictiability of the likelihood and severity of higher end rainfall maxima`s remains low. While the Weather Prediction Center (WPC)`s latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) for the next seven days depicts widespread totals of 1.0 to 1.5 inches along the east coast of South Florida, a reasonable worst case scenario (one that favors a setup of coastal & frictional convergence) could produce several inches of rainfall across isolated locations along the east coast of South Florida. The Weather Prediction Center has placed portions of the east coast of South Florida in a Marginal risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) beginning on Tuesday and continuing through Thursday. This means that there is a 5-14% chance of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding within 25 miles of a given point in the highlighted areas. Forecasted rainfall totals may shift in value over the next couple of days which is standard in a complex pattern, so be sure to not anchor to specific range of projected rainfall values. The main takeaway is that aside from marine and beach impacts, there is at least some level of threat of heavy rainfall along the east coast of South Florida during the middle to late portion of this week. Stay tuned to the latest forecast from NWS Miami as the atmospheric setup discussed in detail (further below) becomes more clear. DETAILED SYNOPSIS... A robust mid-level shortwave and accompanying sub-tropical jet- streak is forecast to slowly transit across the eastern Gulf and Florida Peninsula during much of the upcoming work week. Both deterministic (ECMWF and GFS) as well as ensemble (ECENS & GEFS) have trended with a slow progression of this feature across the region, keeping upper level forcing and dynamics directly overhead of the region. The trend of a slower propagation of the short-wave aside, some model members even depict the potential of mid-level vorticity becoming cut-off from the larger long-wave pattern. Why does this matter? A longer duration of favorable dynamics (cold 500mb temperatures, steep low to mid level lapse rates, upper level divergence) aloft of our region could set the stage when combined with sufficient instability and moisture for periods of both diurnal and nocturnal shower and thunderstorm activity along the immediate east coast of South Florida for much of the upcoming work week. During the mid-week period, a strengthening pressure gradient between 1) an expansive ridge of high pressure across much of the eastern United States and 2) a frontal boundary to our south over the southeastern Gulf and Greater Antilles is forecast to result in gusty northeasterly wind flow across all of South Florida. The highest wind speeds are projected over the local waters and along the immediate coastline of southeastern Florida before surface friction acts to reduce wind speeds at the surface further inland. This enhancement of onshore winds coupled with the pooling of low level boundary moisture across South Florida could set the stage for increasing spatial and temporal coverage of showers (and heavy rainfall) along the east coast of South Florida. The implications of friction will also play a role in any threat of heavy rainfall during this period that will primarily focus across Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach metro areas. As air slows along the coast due to increased friction, ascent is maximized as air parcels converge and are forced to rise. Combining this mesoscale forcing with a potential gradient of instability along the immediate coastline, sufficient boundary layer moisture, and the synoptic kinematics (discussed in the totality of this synopsis) could set the stage for repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms across our east coast metro locales. With soil moisture values across Palm Beach and Broward counties still in the 70-90th percentile, repeated rounds of heavy rainfall could result in localized flooding concerns and a marginal risk of flash flooding across urban areas. Outside of forecast model soundings and QPF cluster analysis, coastal convergence is a mesoscale phenomena that is best modeled within the near-term time horizon of the CAMs. Speaking of QPF clusters, while discrepancies remain between ensemble members, the 90th percentile (reasonable worst case scenario) for all clusters suggests a 1 in 10 potential of several inches of rainfall occurring at isolated locations across the east coast of South Florida Wednesday into Friday. The placement of the right entrance region of a poleward sub- tropical jet streak over the western Atlantic waters and northwestern/central Bahamas will set the stage for an area of favorable upper level divergence. Model guidance (ECENS & GEFS) has come into better agreement for the gradual development of a surface low along a stationary frontal boundary across the Bahamas during this time frame as low level convergence is maximized. Model solutions now depict a gradual deepening of the surface low pressure system with the low gradually lifting to the northeast beginning on Thursday and continuing into the upcoming weekend. The development of a surface low to our southeast could eventually usher in a reinforcing surge of continental dry air via cyclonic northerly surface flow as it lifts further away from the region late in the work week into the upcoming weekend. The modification of the airmass in place across South Florida is forecast to continue which will result in a continuation of a gradual warming trend across the region with maximum temperatures forecast to reach the low to mid 80s each afternoon through next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across all South Florida terminals on Sunday and into early Monday. Light NNW winds at 5-10 kts at all east coast terminals should continue through the rest of the overnight and early morning period before becoming NNE by 15-16Z and ENE by 19Z. Confidence is increasing for at least a few SHRA to be near KDJT later tonight, so went ahead and included VCSH. Light NE winds of 5-10 kts continuing through the period at KAPF. && .MARINE... Issued at 241 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 A gentle to moderate north-northeasterly wind flow will be in place across the Atlantic and Gulf waters today, increasing to a moderate to fresh flow out of the east-northeast tonight. Moderate to fresh northeasterly flow remains in place across the Gulf waters on Monday, increasing to a fresh to strong breeze across the Atlantic waters. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters today will be between 3-5 feet and 2-3 feet, respectively. Seas increase to 5-8 feet across the Atlantic on Monday and to 2-5 feet across the Gulf, and will continue to increase into the middle of the upcoming work week as northeasterly winds strengthen across the region. && .BEACHES... Issued at 241 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 An elevated risk of rip currents will develop along the east coast beaches of South Florida today and could persist into much of the upcoming work week due to a prolonged period of gusty onshore winds. The moderate risk of rip currents at east coast beaches is forecast to become high beginning on Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 68 81 72 / 10 10 20 40 West Kendall 80 66 81 71 / 10 10 10 30 Opa-Locka 80 66 81 70 / 10 10 20 40 Homestead 80 68 81 71 / 0 10 20 40 Fort Lauderdale 79 68 79 71 / 10 10 20 40 N Ft Lauderdale 79 68 80 71 / 10 10 20 40 Pembroke Pines 81 66 82 69 / 10 10 20 40 West Palm Beach 79 66 79 69 / 10 20 40 50 Boca Raton 78 68 79 70 / 10 10 30 40 Naples 78 62 81 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285595 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:51 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 235 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will moderate back close to normal by midweek. - Gusty northeast winds will produce hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters starting late Monday and continuing through most of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 Upper level troughing will remain along the eastern seaboard for the next few days with a shortwave moving along the northern gulf coast Monday into Tuesday. During midweek the trough will shift out into the Atlantic Ocean, but linger back over Florida, possibly cutting off over the state Thursday before opening up and drifting northeast late in the week. Meanwhile at the surface, strong high pressure will hold over the eastern U.S. setting up an increasing northeasterly flow across the area with temperatures and humidity gradually moderating through the week. For today we`ll start out cool, but with plenty of sunshine we`ll see temperatures climb to near 70 degrees north to the mid 70s central and south this afternoon as northeasterly flow continues. Tonight will not be as cool with lows ranging from the upper 40s north to near 60 south. On Monday we`ll begin to see more clouds as the shortwave approaches leading to some mid/high clouds and Atlantic moisture spreads west helping to bring some lower clouds into the area. Enough moisture could setup to allow for a few light showers Monday night as the shortwave moves by with more showers possible Tuesday, but mainly over the interior as breezy northeasterly flow becomes established. For the rest of the week, the breezy northeasterly flow will persist and continue to bring some Atlantic moisture westward leading to a few light showers/sprinkles each day, but still mainly over the interior. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 235 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail with north to northeast winds at 5 to 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 235 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 High pressure to the north will keep breezy northeasterly winds across the waters through the week with speeds increasing to advisory levels late Monday through much of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 235 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 Rather dry air will remain over the region through today, but relative humidity will remain above critical levels. Moisture will gradually increase for the rest of the week as breezy northeasterly winds setup. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 73 57 76 62 / 0 0 0 20 FMY 77 60 81 66 / 0 0 0 10 GIF 75 57 77 62 / 0 0 0 20 SRQ 75 58 78 63 / 0 0 0 20 BKV 73 51 76 56 / 0 0 0 20 SPG 73 60 76 64 / 0 0 0 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1285594 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 229 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Discussion. Nudged temperatures down slightly, with increased cloud cover this afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Frost and Freeze headlines are in effect for portions of Eastern Virginia and Northeast North Carolina late tonight through later this morning. Dry, chilly weather continues through Tuesday, before temperatures moderate for mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 225 AM EST Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Frost and Freeze headlines remain in effect through early this morning for portions of eastern Virginia and northeast North Carolina. Chilly weather continues through Tuesday, with additional frost or freeze headlines possible tonight where the growing season remains active. Early morning weather analysis shows an upper-level low still in place from Atlantic Canada into coastal New England, with a strong attending trough extending south into the eastern Gulf Coast. At the surface, 1028+ mb high pressure centered over the mid-Mississippi River Valley continues to slowly build east behind a surface trough axis oriented well offshore. Temperatures as of this writing are mainly in the low to mid 30s just inland from the Chesapeake Bay west to the VA piedmont, with mid 30s to low 40s along the immediate coast, including the Lower Eastern Shore. While skies have cleared out this morning, the boundary layer has remained mixed just enough to hold up temperatures along the coast. However, still expect winds to relax a bit just inland, where a Freeze Warning remains in place from Bertie County, NC up to the City of Suffolk. A Frost Advisory also remains in effect just to the east, from interior portions of eastern Virginia and coastal northeast North Carolina where the growing season has not yet technically ended. The growing season will end across most of our counties today, leaving only northeast North Carolina counties east of the Chowan River along with Chesapeake, Norfolk, Portsmouth, and Virginia Beach active until later this month. An updated Public Information Statement will be issued later this morning. Very little change in sensible weather through tomorrow, as the surface high slowly slides east and the upper-level low gradually weakens. After a sunny start, clouds will once again increase late this morning and this afternoon. Nudged forecast highs down slightly, as guidance has been slightly too warm given the persistent stratocumulus deck over the past few days. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the low to mid 50s. Clearing skies and a relaxing pressure gradient tonight will allow lows to fall into the lower 30s inland and mid to upper 30s along the coast. While not quite as breezy as yesterday, NNW winds will still nevertheless occasionally gust to 15-20 mph this afternoon, before quickly diminishing after sunset. Dry weather looks to prevail throughout the week ahead, as high pressure builds into the area and becomes anchored overhead for the mid to late week period. Aloft, the trough looks to finally move offshore by late Monday into Tuesday, with upstream ridging building in behind it. This pattern will support a moderating temperature trend from midweek through next weekend. Forecast highs reach the mid 60s by Wednesday, warming into the upper 60s to near 70 inland Thursday through Sunday. Even as the air mass turns milder, dry conditions and efficient radiational cooling under clear skies and light winds should still allow morning lows to fall into the lower 30s across inland areas, with upper 30s to low 40s closer to the coast. And unfortunately there remains little to no prospect for welcome rainfall over the next week to 10 days. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1245 AM EST Sunday... VFR conditions across area terminals early this morning prevail through the 06z/15 TAF period. Clouds have scattered out largely as expected, as high pressure builds into the region. A mainly clear sky is expected over the area through mid-morning, when clouds begin to increase again due to the NW flow and the persistent upper low over the eastern seaboard. CIGs remain in VFR range, but become BKN once again for a majority of the area by early to mid afternoon (bases ~5 to 7 kft AGL). Winds remain light early this morning, but become gusty (~20 knots) again by late morning into this afternoon. Outlook: VFR conditions are favored through midweek, as high pressure builds over the region. Gusty NW winds, gradually diminishing tonight through Monday. && .MARINE... As of 225 AM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories continue through this morning for the coastal waters and through this afternoon for the Chesapeake Bay. - High pressure builds into the region this afternoon through at least Thursday with sub-advisory conditions expected. Latest analysis shows high pressure centered over the MS Valley early this morning. Winds are NW around 20 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt over the Ches. Bay and coastal waters. Waves are 1-3 ft with seas of 2-4 ft in the coastal waters and 4-7 ft beyond 60 nm. NW winds will diminish today to ~15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, remaining out of the NW. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through 7 AM for the coastal waters and through 1 PM for the Chesapeake Bay. Will note that gusts to ~20 kt may be possible this afternoon and evening in the Ches. Bay, as another surge of CAA filters in. This looks to be marginal and confidence is too low to extend SCAs in the Ches. Bay at this time. Will continue to monitor trends and obs. High pressure builds into the region this evening through at least Thursday, allowing for benign marine conditions to return. NW winds of ~15 kt are expected on Monday with light NNW winds around 5-10 kt (gusts to 15 kt in the southern coastal waters) on Tuesday. Winds will be light and variable Wednesday and Thursday. Seas will average 2-3 ft with 1-2 ft waves. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ014-030. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ015>017-031- 032. VA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ529. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ076-084-085- 090-097-098-517>523. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658. && $$ |
| #1285593 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 336 AM AST Sun Nov 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 336 AM AST Sun Nov 15 2026 - Drier airmass will help reduce heat indices, but above-normal temperatures will likely continue today, mainly across coastal areas, lowlands, interior valleys, and urban zones. Sensitive individuals should stay hydrated and reduce sun exposure during peak daytime heat. - Fair weather conditions are expected across the islands today with the presence of a dry airmass. - Frequency of morning showers is expected to increase by Monday onward across the USVI and E PR, along with afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorm activity across W PR. - Life-threatening rip currents remain possible (moderate risk) today across southern beaches of PR. Beach conditions should gradually improve this afternoon into Monday as winds and seas diminish. The moderate risk will return along north-exposed beaches Monday night onward. && .Short Term(Today through Tuesday)... Issued at 336 AM AST Sun Nov 15 2026 Quiet weather conditions persisted overnight, as indicated by satellite and radar imagery. Only a few showers, accompanied by isolated thunderstorms, developed over the waters approximately 40 miles northwest of Puerto Rico. Surface observations recorded above-normal minimum temperatures, ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s across coastal areas and from the 60s to 70s across mountainous regions. Light winds prevailed overnight. A broad surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will promote south to southeast winds today. The pressure gradient is weakening, resulting in lighter winds compared to previous days. Aloft, a mid to upper-level ridge persisting over the region will maintain subsidence and dry air, suppressing significant rainfall development across the islands. Today is expected to be the most stable day of the forecast period, with the arrival of a drier air mass with precipitable water values of around 1.2 inches and slight concentrations of Saharan dust particles. Weather conditions will be dominated by periods of sunshine and warm temperatures. These conditions will likely result in above-normal temperatures, particularly across coastal areas, lowlands, interior valleys, and urban areas. Minimum temperatures are already running above normal, so the day will start on the warm side. Stay hydrated and limit sun exposure during peak heating hours. During Monday and Tuesday, atmospheric moisture is expected to recover slightly, with precipitable water values returning to seasonal levels and relative humidity in the 850 to 700 mb layer showing some improvement. Relative humidity in the 700 to 500 mb layer will also gradually increase, indicating a modest recovery in mid- level moisture. Meanwhile, 250 mb geopotential heights and 1000 to 500 mb thickness values are expected to have relatively minor changes, suggesting limited variation in the overall atmospheric pattern. Weather conditions will be influenced by easterly disturbances bringing periodic pulses of moisture across the islands. However, the mid-level ridge will weaken slightly but will continue to promote moderate subsidence, potentially limiting deeper convective development. Overall, expect morning showers across windward sections of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by afternoon convection across the interior and western portions of Puerto Rico, driven by the prevailing easterly wind flow. This will bring back the possibility of observing ponding of water on roads and in poorly drained areas, also a low chance of urban and small streams flooding (Level 1 of 4 of excessive Rainfall Risk). && .Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)... Issued at 336 AM AST Sun Nov 15 2026 A seasonal weather pattern is expected for the remainder of the workweek, transitioning to more frequent passing showers and variable conditions over the weekend as additional tropical moisture filters into the region. An ESE flow will prevail through the second half of the workweek as surface high pressure remains centered across the central Atlantic, shifting more southeasterly over the weekend as an induced surface low develops north northwest of the local area. A mid- level ridge will remain in control through most of the long- term period, maintaining generally stable conditions aloft. However, trade wind perturbations induced by an upper low well east of the Caribbean (near 40W to 50W) will bring pockets of moisture from time to time, mainly confined to the lower levels of the atmosphere. Precipitable water values will fluctuate between 1.6 to 1.8 inches, which is within seasonal levels for this time of the year. Therefore, expect morning passing showers across windward areas, followed by afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms across the interior and northwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico, as well as potentially into portions of the San Juan metropolitan area. Streamers are also likely to develop downwind from the USVI, Vieques, and Culebra. While an upper-level trough will cross the region from the west Thursday into Friday, dry mid- levels will limit convective enhancement. Over the weekend, as a more southeasterly flow establishes and the surface low develops NNW of the region, additional moisture will pool across the islands, with precipitable water values reaching 1.8 to 2.0 inches along with above seasonal levels of moisture in the mid- level moisture. This setup will favor more frequent showers across the regional waters and windward areas, including the USVI, as well as more scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the interior and northwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico. The persistent ESE to SE flow will maintain a daily heat risk, particularly for sensitive individuals. Please continue to follow recommendations from official health authorities. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 336 AM AST Sun Nov 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected across all TAF sites thru the fcst period. Overall no significant wx impacts. SE to S winds around 10 to 12 kt will prevail, with sea breeze variations, becoming around lighter and vrb overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 336 AM AST Sun Nov 15 2026 A surface high pressure extending from the eastern to central Atlantic will promote light to moderate southeasterly winds across the regional waters through at least Monday. Seas will generally range between 3 and 5 feet, occasionally reaching up to 6 feet across the offshore waters and local passages. Marine conditions are expected to continue improving throughout the week as winds and wind- driven seas continue to decrease. However, passing showers and isolated thunderstorms may produce locally higher winds and seas. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 336 AM AST Sun Nov 15 2026 Wind-driven seas will continue to support a moderate risk of life- threatening rip currents across most beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through early today. The rip current risk is expected to decrease from today onwards as wind and seas continue to subside, with additional improvements anticipated through mid-week. Despite the improving conditions, beachgoers should continue to exercise caution, particularly along exposed beaches. Life- threatening rip currents can still develop near jetties, groins, piers, and reefs, even where a low risk is forecast. Although shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to remain limited, isolated thunderstorms may develop near the western and northwestern beaches of Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. Beachgoers should seek shelter immediately if thunder is heard and remain weather aware. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 336 AM AST Sun Nov 15 2026 Minimum relative humidity values are expected to decrease into the 50s across southern coastal Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today as a drier air mass moves across the region. However, winds are expected to remain below fire weather thresholds, helping to limit the overall fire danger. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1285592 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:09 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 153 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 151 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 - Gradually increasing rain chances early in the week with scattered to numerous coverage by Tuesday-Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall possible along the coast Tuesday-Thursday. - Significant coastal and marine hazards are likely early-mid week continuing into late week as East winds increase. Winds and seas will build across the local coastal waters with rough, pounding surf and minor beach erosion possible. Expect numerous, strong life- threatening rip currents at area beaches. - Extensive flooding continues along the St. Johns River due to exceptional rainfall in the upper reaches of the basin over previous weeks. The latest river forecasts are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 151 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 Current-Mon...Another cool start to the morning with temperatures beginning in the 40s/50s. At least one more dry day today, with moisture gradually returning into Mon and an increase in PoP chances esp along the Space/Treasure coasts. Onshore flow strengthens on Mon with breezy/gusty conditions nearly areawide. An upper level disturbance moves into the Deep South on Mon and across the Florida peninsula Mon night with ISOLD-SCT showers forecast. Slightly below normal temperatures today/Mon with maxes in the L-M70s, except few U70s across the Treasure Coast. With the addition of moisture and strengthening of onshore flow our min temps overnight into Mon morning will recover into the M-U50s over the interior and L60s near the coast, except M60s along the St. Lucie/Martin coasts. For Mon night/Tue morning our lows will only fall into the U50s N/W of I-4 with 60s most everywhere else. Tue-Sat...Surface high pressure encompasses much of the eastern CONUS and combined with lower pressure across the western Atlc will produce a tight pressure gradient through much of this period. This will allow for a continuation of breezy to potentially windy onshore (gusty) winds each day remaining a bit elevated over the interior and breezy/gusty along the coast each night. An unsettled (troughy) pattern will continue aloft across the Florida peninsula with ample moisture in place. This set-up could allow for heavy rainfall (esp along the coast) at least Tue-Thu. Presently, the Weather Prediction Center has outlooked eastern FL under a Marginal threat for Excessive Rainfall these three days. Low confidence in exactly where heavy bands may set up, but we do not anticipate as much rainfall as we saw a couple of weeks ago. Much will depend on the strength/position of a low/trough forecast to develop near/east of the Bahamas early/mid week. This feature will gradually track northeast away from eastern FL, but additional impacts will include poor/hazardous boating conditions and building seas creating rough, pounding surf along the coast with minor beach erosion likely, as well as strong rip currents. Rain chances increase areawide (Tue- Fri) - highest along the coast. A low chance for lightning storms will also be forecast. By Wed, temperatures for highs will be near to slightly above climo. Low temperatures will be above normal for much of this period. && .MARINE... Issued at 151 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 Thru Thursday...With high pressure to the north and developing low pressure over the western Atlc, boating conditions will deteriorate early in the week thru late week as the pgrad tightens and onshore winds increase. Wind speeds will approach 15-25 kts with frequent higher gusts by late Mon-Thu. Seas 2-4 ft today will build 4-6 ft Mon, 5-7 ft Mon night, 6-8 ft thru Tue night, then 8-11 ft Wed-Thu. Small Craft Advisories will be necessary by Mon continuing thru much of the week as conditions remain unsettled. Moisture returns and precip chances increase gradually beginning on Mon, then ramping up to SCT-NMRS shower coverage (ISOLD lightning) Mon night thru at least Thu. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1220 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 Dry conditions persist at all terminals with north-northwest winds 5 to 10 knots early this morning shifting to out of the north- northeast late morning into this afternoon. VFR conditions areawide with no VIS or CIG reductions forecast. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 151 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 River flood warnings remain in effect for Cocoa (COCF1), Geneva (GENF1), and Astor (ASTF1) on the St. Johns. The river west of Cocoa is in Major Flood Stage but appears to be cresting and is now forecast to begin a slow decline next week. The other points (Deland and Sanford) are forecast to remain in Action stage which is below Minor flood stage. River forecasts out five days are issued twice daily by the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB. There is potential for additional heavy rainfall early to mid next week, but there is currently a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast. We will continue to monitor this setup and any implications for ongoing flooding. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 72 58 73 61 / 0 10 20 40 MCO 74 58 74 63 / 0 0 10 30 MLB 75 63 76 66 / 0 10 50 30 VRB 77 63 78 66 / 0 10 50 30 LEE 72 54 73 58 / 0 0 0 30 SFB 73 57 74 61 / 0 0 10 30 ORL 73 58 74 62 / 0 0 10 30 FPR 76 62 77 65 / 0 10 50 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1285591 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 204 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1...Prolonged period of dry and quiet weather with moderating temperatures next week leading to increasingly mild afternoons with cool nights. Sunshine should be more abundant today compared to yesterday as we are increasingly removed from the mid level trough, though its effects will linger. We`ll continue to see diurnal clouds pop up and we`ll have efficient mixing up to near 800mb. This will pull down some breezy NW gusts, generally 20-25 mph. Combined with highs in the upper 40s it will feel closer to the low to mid 40s for most, mid 30s in the slopes of the Berkshires. There is good consensus amongst the guidance that this coming week will be dominated by a very broad surface high pressure/mid level ridging pattern with troughing over the intermountain west. Rising heights will lead to warming temperatures and keep skies mostly sunny, especially Tuesday and beyond. Dry NW flow around the high will lead to chilly low temperatures exacerbated at times by radiational cooling while highs warm well above average, into the 60s by mid to late week. Eventually a dry cold front cools the airmass down just a bit late week but no arctic intrusions on the horizon. Overall a fantastic stretch of weather for late November if you`re looking to get outside and enjoy some relatively warmer days. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update: Through 12z: High confidence. VFR. NW winds around 8-12 kt. Sunday...High confidence. VFR. NW winds increase to around 10-13 kt with gusts in low 20s kt range by 14-16z. Sunday night...High confidence. VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts. Monday...High confidence. VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Monday: High confidence. NW wind gusts just below SCA criteria today with seas 2-4 ft all waters and good visibility. High pressure moves closer on Monday lessening winds with seas 1-3 ft. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285590 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1255 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1253 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 - Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms and marginal to slight excessive rainfall (level 1-2 of 4) today, most likely over Victoria Crossroads - Minor coastal flooding increasingly likely along with a HIGH rip current risk tonight into Monday morning. - Hazardous seas with Gale conditions following front overnight through Monday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1253 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 Yesterday (Saturday), turned out to be much wetter than majority of the guidance indicated, with several pockets over 2.0" along the northern Coastal Bend and southern Victoria Crossroads. This same area will be most favorable for additional showers and storms through today, resulting in a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall. A 30-50% chance for showers and storms this morning over the Coastal Plains will increase to a 50-90% this afternoon as a cold front pushes through. FROPA is expected by this evening, latest CAM guidance trending faster, causing only lingering low rain chances to continue tonight. Majority of the mid-level lift support will remain to our northeast, limiting the southern extent of the severe threat. Instability will likely be limited with CAPE under 1500 J/kg, but with effective shear over 40 knots aligned parallel to the frontal boundary, a line of strong storms can`t be ruled out ahead of and along the front as it pushes through. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary hazards. The shallow cold air mass will allow for low overcast clouds to linger through Monday, likely cooler than what the NBM has currently with temperatures varying little night to day with the breezy offshore flow. Therefore, went with a blend of short-range consensus and the REFS to get max temperatures on Monday only in the mid to upper 50s areawide; still about 10 degrees warmer than the record low maxes but it`ll feel nice! Rain-free conditions with partly to mostly cloudy skies will persist through the middle of the week before moisture advection returns, bringing low rain chances back in the latter half of the week. A shortwave next weekend will result in a slight increase in our rain chances. Minor coastal flooding is becoming increasingly likely tonight into early Monday morning as strong northeasterly winds enhance the Ekman transport mechanism along with sufficient wave run-up from 8-9 second swell periods. There is a high risk of rip currents tonight through Monday, leading to especially dangerous swimming conditions. Minor coastal flooding may continue to be a concern into the middle of next week during high tide at night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 An approaching cold front will lead to mostly MVFR conditions, especially after 12Z. Winds prior to the front will be southerly at 10-15 kts. Showers associated with the front will begin moving in as early at 17Z across the Victoria Crossroads and then moving south (closer to the coastline) through 00Z. Greatest risk with thunderstorms along this line will be gusty and erratic winds followed by a shift to N`ly wind at 10-20 kt with the higher sustained wind along the immediate coastline. Behind the front, IFR CIGs return with brief LIFR drop in CIGs after 00Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1253 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 Fresh to strong southeasterly winds will persist through this morning, before weakening slightly ahead of our next cold front that will push through later this afternoon into the evening. There is a medium to high chances for showers and storms through tonight, with an increasing threat of waterspouts. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through midnight tonight over all waters, upgrading to a Gale Warning late tonight through Monday over the open waters as near Gale sustained winds and frequent Gale force winds follow in the wake of the cold front. Strong northeasterly winds will persist over the bays but may need to be include in the Gale Warning if winds trend stronger. At least Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through Tuesday night before winds weaken to moderate to fresh out of the east to southeast mid to late this week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1253 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 Elevated fire weather conditions are not anticipated through the forecast period. A cold front will pass through this afternoon to evening, leading to breezy northeasterly winds in its wake. However, temperatures will remain cooler than normal and keep minimum relative humidity above 40 percent. Fuel moisture remains above normal. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 78 55 58 53 / 70 50 10 0 Victoria 72 52 56 50 / 90 30 10 0 Laredo 81 56 61 55 / 0 10 10 10 Alice 77 54 57 52 / 60 40 10 0 Rockport 75 56 58 55 / 70 50 10 0 Cotulla 73 54 59 52 / 30 10 10 0 Kingsville 80 55 58 53 / 40 40 10 0 Navy Corpus 77 58 59 58 / 60 50 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Monday afternoon for TXZ345-442-443-447. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ231-232-236- 237. Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ250-255- 270-275. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ250- 255-270-275. && $$ |
| #1285589 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 151 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 144 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 - Hazardous marine conditions are likely for much of this week starting on Monday. Small Craft Advisories will be needed for the Gulf waters, and occasional gusts near gale force are expected. - No additional freezes are expected for this week after this morning, and a warming trend is expected after Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 After a frosty start this morning, temperatures will rebound back into the 60s this afternoon for most areas with partly cloudy skies. High pressure centered north of the area will maintain a dry and cool northeast flow across the area. For tonight, cloud cover will increase late in the night from west to east as an upper level shortwave approaches. This cloud cover and a slight increase in moisture should keep temperatures from dropping as low as this morning, and overnight lows are expected to range from the mid 30s across the northern counties to mid 40s closer to the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 The upper level shortwave will move through on Monday with abundant cloud cover and cool northeast surface winds. The best moisture and lift are expected to remain south of the area, so rain chances are minimal despite the cloudy skies. Monday`s high temperatures will be on the cool side with the cloud cover and northeast flow. NBM temperatures for Monday may be too high, and the official forecast trended towards CONSRaw guidance. This results in highs remaining in the mid to upper 50s over a large portion of the area, except mid 60s across the far southeast big bend. Beyond Monday, a warming trend is expected with highs getting back into the 70s by the middle to end of the week with dry weather still continuing. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Patchy to areas of frost expected around sunrise. Winds will become more northeasterly through the afternoon with high clouds passing through. && .MARINE... Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 Hazardous marine conditions are likely for much of this week starting on Monday. A tightening pressure gradient with high pressure centered across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic will bring strong east to northeast winds to the area. Small Craft Advisories will be needed for the Gulf waters, and occasional gusts near gale force are expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 Relative humidity values will drop to near critical levels over parts of SE AL, SW GA, and the FL Big Bend again this afternoon, but winds will be light with cool temperatures. Moisture will rebound on Monday with abundant cloud cover, but little to no rain is expected. Overall, dry weather will persist amidst a warming trend through this upcoming week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 Little to no rainfall forecast precludes any hydrological concerns over the next several days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 64 43 61 47 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 64 45 61 48 / 0 0 10 0 Dothan 61 40 58 42 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 61 37 59 40 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 63 40 61 44 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 67 45 67 51 / 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 64 49 62 52 / 0 0 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-326-426. GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ120>126- 142>145. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ127>131- 146>148-155>161. AL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for ALZ065>067. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ALZ068-069. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285588 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 118 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Frost/freeze conditions through daybreak today and again tonight. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Frost/freeze conditions through daybreak today and again tonight. Winds have gone light to calm across the region, a result of the prevailing high pressure at the surface. Combined with clear skies, a very chilly night is underway across the region. Several sites are already reporting 32 degrees as of midnight. A Freeze Warning remains in effect for a bulk of the SC Lowcountry and southeastern GA. A Frost Advisory is in effect along the SC coastal counties, where frost is forecast away from the immediate coastline. These products are in effect through 9 AM. If widespread freezing temperatures occur early this morning, then this will end the local growing season and Frost/Freeze products will not be issued for tonight/early Monday morning. However, if only some areas observe freezing temperatures, then the growing season continues and we will likely need Frost/Freeze products tonight/early Monday morning. Regardless of the outcome, overnight temperatures will range from low to mid 30s across the inland counties and upper 30s to low 40s across the coastal counties. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR through the 06Z TAF period at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV. Extended Aviation Outlook: Expect VFR conditions to prevail. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: High pressure will dominate over the marine waters through tonight, yielding N winds 10 to 15 knots and seas 2 to 3 ft. Monday through Thursday: As slowly high pressure expands across the region and then eventually into the Atlantic, expect northeasterly flow to take hold of the forecast and gradually ramp up throughout the period. Wind speeds will generally range from 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kts (even 30 kts possible across the offshore waters). East-northeasterly swell will be on tap through the period as well with seas ranging from 4 to 6 ft across the nearshore waters, then 5 to 8 ft across the offshore waters. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed on Monday evening for the offshore Georgia waters, and then eventually for the nearshore South Carolina waters as well on Tuesday through the rest of the period. Mariners should stay up to date with latest marine forecast before heading offshore. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ087-088- 099>101-114-115-137-216-238. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ218-240. SC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ040-042>045- 147. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ148>152. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285587 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:30 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 113 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Edged low temperatures down a few degrees through mid week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) First freeze of the season for much of ENC away from bodies of water this morning, with frost potential elsewhere on the mainland. Cold mornings continue through mid week then a moderating trend mid to late week. 2) Dry high pres continues through much of the coming week with warm days but chilly nights and continued ongoing drought conditions. Afternoon relative humidities will be quite low but winds light. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold low-level thicknesses and strong high pressure over the region will support frost/freeze impacts across all of the mainland ENC this morning. Continued good radiational cooling through the beginning of the week will bring a freeze threat each night/morning, although a season ending freeze this morning would end the frost/freeze program for the counties the freeze occurs, and additional frost/freeze headlines may not be needed anymore. The only areas to escape frost or freezing temps tonight will be areas immediately adjacent to water bodies, including the beach communities. The risk of frost impacts may be lessened Sunday night as a weak cold front moves through which will keep the boundary layer a bit more mixed with a light breeze preventing ideal rad cooling. High pressure then reasserts itself Monday and Tuesday night, with freezing temps or frost returning once again. KEY MESSAGE 2...The aforementioned very dry airmass and low TD`s each day over the coming week will exacerbate the worsening drought conditions in place across ENC, and fortunately winds are not expected to be strong with the high nearby. However, fire weather concerns may grow with the curing vegetation combined with low RH values each afternoon. Highs will warm back to above climo in the upper 60s to low 70s mid to late week, but overnight lows will continue quite chilly and below climo with the dry high pres cont to dominate all week. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Unremarkable weather for aviation interests today as high pressure continues to dominate the area keeping skies clear and winds W to NW at under 10 kt through the period. A weak front will cross the region tonight bringing an uptick in clouds at around 5-6 kft but no precipitation. Outlook (Monday through Thursday): A weak cold front will move through ENC by early Mon with a weak northerly wind shift. There may be a brief bump up in winds as well, but at this time a significant increase in winds is not expected. Light north to northeast winds are expected to continue into much of next week as high pressure remains centered to the north of the area. Scattered low end VFR strato cu may accompany the Sunday night to Monday morning front. && .MARINE... The nwrly gradient cont to weaken and winds are in the 5-15 kt range, with some gusts aoa 20 kt over the Gulf Stream where better mixing occuring. Seas cont to subside, with the last of 6 ft seas across the ctrl waters as of late this evening. All nearshore marine zones will be in the 2-5 ft range by daybreak today. A reinforcing cold front will drop through late Sunday night into Monday morning. This front is expected to lead to a brief bump up in winds as it moves through. Some 25+ kt wind gusts may mix over the Gulf Stream waters, generally south of C Hatteras, but will not issue any SCA headlines attm, and wait to see model trends for this possibility. Seas may briefly get a bump up with this northerly surge as well and inc to 6+ ft over the Gulf. Outlook (Monday through Thursday): After Monday`s wind surge, general N to NE winds of 10-20kt are expected for much of the upcoming week as high pressure remains anchored to the north while a broad area of low pressure resides to the south well offshore of the Southeast U.S. Seas appear to remain below 6 ft for the nearshore coastal waters. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ029-044-045- 079-080-090>092-193>195-198-199. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ046-047-081- 094-196. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285586 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:15 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 100 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Edged low temperatures down a few degrees through mid week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) First freeze of the season for much of ENC away from bodies of water this morning, with frost potential elsewhere on the mainland. Cold mornings continue through mid week then a moderating trend mid to late week. 2) Dry high pres continues through much of the coming week with warm days but chilly nights and continued ongoing drought conditions. Afternoon relative humidities will be quite low but winds light. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold low-level thicknesses and strong high pressure over the region will support frost/freeze impacts across all of the mainland ENC this morning. Continued good radiational cooling through the beginning of the week will bring a freeze threat each night/morning, although a season ending freeze this morning would end the frost/freeze program for the counties the freeze occurs, and additional frost/freeze headlines may not be needed anymore. The only areas to escape frost or freezing temps tonight will be areas immediately adjacent to water bodies, including the beach communities. The risk of frost impacts may be lessened Sunday night as a weak cold front moves through which will keep the boundary layer a bit more mixed with a light breeze preventing ideal rad cooling. High pressure then reasserts itself Monday and Tuesday night, with freezing temps or frost returning once again. KEY MESSAGE 2...The aforementioned very dry airmass and low TD`s each day over the coming week will exacerbate the worsening drought conditions in place across ENC, and fortunately winds are not expected to be strong with the high nearby. However, fire weather concerns may grow with the curing vegetation combined with low RH values each afternoon. Highs will warm back to above climo in the upper 60s to low 70s mid to late week, but overnight lows will continue quite chilly and below climo with the dry high pres cont to dominate all week. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mostly SKC skies for the terminals through tonight and Sunday with high pres dominating. Winds will be light generally W to NW but less than 6 kt. Outlook (Monday through Thursday): A weak cold front will move through ENC by early Mon with a weak northerly wind shift. There may be a brief bump up in winds as well, but at this time a significant increase in winds is not expected. Light north to northeast winds are expected to continue into much of next week as high pressure remains centered to the north of the area. Scattered low end VFR strato cu may accompany the Sunday night to Monday morning front. && .MARINE... The nwrly gradient cont to weaken and winds are in the 5-15 kt range, with some gusts aoa 20 kt over the Gulf Stream where better mixing occuring. Seas cont to subside, with the last of 6 ft seas across the ctrl waters as of late this evening. All nearshore marine zones will be in the 2-5 ft range by daybreak today. A reinforcing cold front will drop through late Sunday night into Monday morning. This front is expected to lead to a brief bump up in winds as it moves through. Some 25+ kt wind gusts may mix over the Gulf Stream waters, generally south of C Hatteras, but will not issue any SCA headlines attm, and wait to see model trends for this possibility. Seas may briefly get a bump up with this northerly surge as well and inc to 6+ ft over the Gulf. Outlook (Monday through Thursday): After Monday`s wind surge, general N to NE winds of 10-20kt are expected for much of the upcoming week as high pressure remains anchored to the north while a broad area of low pressure resides to the south well offshore of the Southeast U.S. Seas appear to remain below 6 ft for the nearshore coastal waters. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST Sunday for NCZ029-044-045-079- 080-090>092-193>195-198-199. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for NCZ046-047-081-094- 196. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ150-152- 154. && $$ |
| #1285585 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:09 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1153 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1151 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026 - Dry air combined with ongoing drought conditions will elevate fire spread concerns across northern portions of the area through this afternoon. Residents in areas under burn bans should not conduct outdoor burning of any kind. Residents in areas without official burn bans should take extra precautions if burning outdoors. - Hazardous marine conditions are expected off and on through midweek next week. Gusts up to gale force will be possible early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Monday night) Issued at 1151 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026 Quiet and cool night in store. By 04z temps were already down into the 40s and lower 50s across most of the area with a few isolated areas in the cooler drainage areas in the 30s. Temps will likely continue to drop a little more overnight but will slow down especially as clouds continue to build in from the west. As for the forecast the main forecast concerns is the s/w that will move into the region later today and through the region Monday along with increasing hazardous marine conditions. Our main antagonist is currently moving over the TX panhandle and it looks like it will be able to undercut the ridge overnight tonight and early Monday as it slides into the Lower MS Valley. The mid lvl jet max is still just downstream of the trough axis and thus likely why it will have enough punch to keep driving ESE. It will start to open up and merge with the deeper L/W trough just before it pushes off the east coast. The biggest problem is because of the ridging just ahead, our recent cold front, and sfc high to the north moisture will not be able to recover fast enough ahead of it but also with the orientation that this s/w takes it will lead to a majority of the strongest support remaining just off to the south. With that we will likely see a continuation of the rain remaining just south of the area. Even with a well defined disturbance because of that orientation (it is a highly positively titled trough axis by early/midday Monday) hghts actually appear to remain fairly unchanged. The best hght falls and mid the mid lvl jet will ridge the northern Gulf. Still anticipate some isolated to scattered light showers but overall the heaviest rain looks to remain just off to our west and south. This disturbance will likely lead to the development of a sfc low over the northwestern Gulf this evening but how well defined and strong it will be is uncertain. Some models are showing a small but quickly developing well defined sfc low however, there appears to be some feedback issue going on. This is also leading to rather strong easterly winds developing over much of the coastal waters and over a prolonged time frame. This seems a little aggressive especially given how small this area of low pressure may be. The bigger influence is likely the large broad sfc high building down which will be centered over KY but it will stretch from the southern Plains, south to the Gulf Coast, and east-southeast off the SC coast. Now that is not to say that there is a sfc low that develops just not as confident it will be as well defined or as deep as some of the models show. Temperatures will start to moderate tonight and Monday night however highs both today and tomorrow will likely remain fairly similar with h925 temps of 7-9C which should result in highs in the lower to mid 60s for much of the area both days. Lows will be a little warmer tonight than they will be this morning thanks to the increase in relative humidity and increasing winds. That said we will still see lows in the lower 40s to lower 50s over much of the area. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 1151 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026 Medium range models from earlier today were in very good agreement through the week however that is not what we would like to hear because that will keep the dry weather pattern in place. It looks like the next best chance for a system to bring rain may be late next weekend or the beginning of Thanksgiving week. No major disagreements with the NBM at this time so no adjustments have been made. As our disturbance continues to slide east and merge with the east coast trough we will see mid lvl ridging build in. By Wednesday morning the ridge will dominate the area from the TX coast northeast across the Lower MS Valley and into the OH and TN Valley`s. This will slowly moderate temps with highs climbing from the the lower 70s Tuesday to the mid upper 70s Wednesday and Thursday and maybe even a few locations touching 80/81 by Friday. We will also see moisture slowly creep up and thus morning lows will trend a degree or 2 warmer each morning going from near 40 and lower 50s Tuesday morning to 50s across the entire area Friday morning, maybe even a few locations remaining in the lower 60s. There will be a couple of disturbances coming out of the Pacific across the 4 corners this week. These will all basically ride just over the ridge into the central Plains and Mid MS Valley. The ridge will become elongated from southwest to northeast eventually stretching from the western Gulf to the Carolina`s but it will be stubborn and keep all rain out of the area. As we head into weekend the forecast is highly questionable as the models start to diverge as they struggle with the numerous Pac systems coming towards the region. This should eventually help lead to a more persistent west coast trough and eastern coast ridge with southwest flow aloft and hopefully some better rain potential. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026 VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through today but after 00z we may start to see some light rain try to move in from the west and northwest. This will likely be well after which 00z and probably closer to 6z right at the end of this TAF package. The main terminal that could see impacts in this forecast would be BTR as low cigs and light rain may just start to push in before 6z. In addition MSY could see some light rain just before 12z Monday. Other than that expect the current northerly winds we have to become more easterly today and tonight. /CAB/ && .MARINE... Issued at 1151 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026 Winds continue to persist around 15-20 kt over most of the coastal waters. This supports Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines however a more impactful period of hazardous marine conditions looks likely late Sunday and continuing through at least the middle of next week. The approaching disturbance will support the development of a surface low over the northwestern Gulf. Combine that with high pressure building south and we will see a tightening of the pressure gradient over the northern Gulf. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 knots and seas of 6 to 10 feet will be possible across the open Gulf waters Monday, with higher gusts potentially approaching or exceeding gale force. How strong a surface low develops is in question as there may be some convective feedback leading a deeper surface lown than what may actually occur and thus we will keep the Gale Watch out for now. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all other marine areas due to the forecast persistent pressure gradient between the surface low and high pressure to the north. May not see much appreciable relief until the end of next week. /CAB/ && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ529-531>536-541-543-557-577. Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Monday night for GMZ551-553-554-570-572-575. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ531>536-541-543-557-577. Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Monday night for GMZ553-554-570-572-575. && $$ |
| #1285583 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1159 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - A storm system will bring multiple weather hazards Sunday - There is a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms today in our coastal and marine areas. - Heavy showers and thunderstorms may result in localized flash flooding today, especially near the coast. - Strong marine winds expected through Monday. Gales Warning in effect for Galveston Bay and the Gulf waters. Small Craft Advisory in effect for Matagorda Bay. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1130 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026 A variety of weather hazards will effect southeast Texas on Sunday. A mid/upper low is currently pushing into the Texas Panhandle and drifting eastward towards Oklahoma. A strengthening and increasingly diffluent mid/upper jet is located ahead of and to the south of the low. These ML/UL dynamics are also helping to foment LL cyclogenesis, with a developing sfc low over NW Texas (south of the Panhandle). Meanwhile, a rather cold sfc high is drifting southeastward over the Mississippi River Valley. Colder dense air from the east is advecting westward towards the low, and enhancing a temperature gradient across the Lone Star State. The sfc low will track southeastward Sunday, roughly parallel to the temperature gradient. To the north of the low`s associated warm front, one can expect widespread light to moderate showers, with some embedded heavier showers and thunderstorms. But those south of the warm front will find themselves in the system`s warm sector, where high atmospheric buoyancy coupled with a strongly sheered and veering vertical wind profile will set the stage for stronger thunderstorms. As discussed in my discussion yesterday, there was some uncertainty regarding the exact placement of these boundaries and the overall extent of the warm sector over our CWA. But today, it appears there is increasing confidence that the warm front will be more suppressed southward, limiting the warm sector zones to the coast (especially near Matagorda Bay) and the offshore Gulf waters. Through the early morning hours on Sunday, the highest chance of showers will be across our western counties. There is a risk strong to severe thunderstorms in the vicinity of Matagorda Bay overnight into Sunday morning. Already, we have observed discrete supercells offshore the Coastal Bend this evening, with some "side lobe-y" looking cells offshore of Matagorda. Therefore, I am not going to be surprised if we manage to see a few waterspouts in our Gulf waters in the vicinity of Matagorda before most people wake up on Sunday. We also cannot rule out a tornado in this area either. Rain and thunderstorm coverage should generally increase over our region later this morning and into the afternoon. With trends pointing towards a farther south warm front, it`s quite possible that most (maybe all) areas north of I-10 will hold in the 50s all day. There`s even some hi-res guidance suggesting our northern zones could drop into the 40s by late afternoon. There will likely be a steep temperature gradient south of I-10. The warmest parts of our CWA (coastal areas of Brazoria, Matagorda, and Jackson Counties) could top out in the 70s. The highest risk of heavy rainfall capable of flooding will be near the coast. However, locally heavy rainfall capable of localized flooding cannot be ruled out farther inland. Widespread totals of 1-2 inches are expected inland, while coastal areas are forecast to average in the 2-4 inch range. Locally much heavier totals are likely at the coast, with some spots possibly receiving over 6 inches of rainfall. The highest rainfall rates are still expected to peak 2-3"/ per hour near the coast. Therefore, flash flooding is a concern. Rain and thunderstorms are not the only hazards associated with this system. Strong, gusty coastal and marine winds will continue through Monday. There is even a Gale Warning in effect for the majority of our marine zones for later today into Monday. Please see the marine discussion for more details. Colder air should push southward towards the coast as the low exits offshore, resulting in breezy and chilly conditions Sunday night. Lows are expected to be in the 40s north of I-10, with low to mid 50s farther south. Yesterday, Monday was appearing murky and quite chilly. Today, there`s increasing uncertainty regarding how murky it will be on Monday. Some of the guidance is suggesting a shorter isentropic lift period and more dry air than initially expected, opening the door to breaking clouds and more sunshine. If the sun breaks out by early/mid afternoon, then we may make a run for the 60 degree mark. But if clouds prove more resilient, then I could see us struggling to warm past the mid 50s. Monday night will be chilly, with widespread lows in the 40s. Areas near the coast and within the heart of Houston`s urban heat island may remain in the 50s. We still anticipate a warming trend beyond Monday. By Wednesday and Thursday, most of the region is expected to be in the 70s. Couldn`t rule out a few locations reaching 80 by week`s end. Self && .AVIATION... (03Z TAF Amendment) Issued at 957 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026 VFR prevails, though winds remain elevated and gusty across the region. Current radar shows scattered showers across the region. These showers continue their westward movement, impacting terminals through the overnight hours. CIGS gradually lower throughout this TAF period as a low pressure system approaches from the west, lowering to MVFR by early/mid- morning, then IFR by the afternoon hours. Current guidance shows CIGS in the 600-800ft level for tomorrow afternoon, but there is a chance some sites dip into LIFR territory. Ahead of this low pressure system, moderate to occasionally heavy SHRA is anticipated to impact terminals through early tomorrow morning and into the afternoon. The highest chances for TS activity remains tomorrow afternoon. Within the strongest storms, expect heavy downpours, gusts, and frequent lightning. TS activity should taper off by the late afternoon/evening, but SHRA is expected to linger well into tomorrow evening. MLG && .MARINE... Issued at 957 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026 Showers and thunderstorms along with strong winds are expected Sunday. The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of gales and waterspouts. Winds will be easterly, averaging 20-25 knots with higher gusts through early afternoon. Later in the way, winds are expected to increase while backing northeast to north. There is some uncertainty regarding the timing of this turn. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the Gulf later today through Monday morning and possibly into the afternoon. For Galveston Bay, gusts to gale force are expected this afternoon into tonight, especially in the lower bay. Gulf offshore seas over 10 feet are likely, with waters in the bays become quite rough. Conditions will gradually improve beyond Monday. However, hazardous marine conditions could linger into Wednesday, especially over the Gulf. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 70 53 60 48 / 0 70 100 60 Houston (IAH) 68 55 64 50 / 0 30 100 80 Galveston (GLS) 69 65 72 58 / 0 10 100 80 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 PM CST Monday for TXZ214- 235>238-313-335>338. Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for TXZ436>439. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Monday for GMZ330. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Sunday for GMZ335-355-375. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 3 PM CST Monday for GMZ335. Gale Warning from 3 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ335. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ350-370. Gale Warning from 6 PM Sunday to 3 PM CST Monday for GMZ350-370. Gale Warning from 3 PM Sunday to 3 PM CST Monday for GMZ355-375. && $$ |
| #1285582 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:03 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1254 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1243 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 - Below average temperatures and dry weather are in the forecast for all of South Florida tonight - Breezy northwesterly winds will result in cautionary to hazardous marine conditions across the local Gulf & Atlantic waters through late this morning. - A prolonged period of dangerous marine and beach conditions may occur across the region beginning early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 401 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026 The first cool snap of the season is finally here! Surface and satellite observations show a dry, cool air mass overspreading the entire southeastern United States today as high pressure builds, while a cold front lingers across the Florida Straits. The interaction between the two surface features have helped maintain a breezy northerly surface flow across South Florida, which has aided in the cooling sensation this morning. In fact, temperatures across the Florida peninsula have struggled to peak past the upper 60s, while dew points have remained in the 30s and 40s, indicative of the influence of the dry air advection over the region. With this setup in place, expect the cool, breezy and sunny conditions to prevail for the rest of the day, with zero chances for rainfall and barely any cloud coverage to speak of. Overnight temperatures will also remain chilly, dropping into the upper 50s along the coasts, and low 50s across the interior, The lingering cold front should finally fizzle out by tomorrow, allowing the surface high to continue building south across our area. As a result, winds will gradually shift from the east- northeast, advecting some slightly moister, warmer air over the area. Temperatures might still remain below average, peaking in the mid to upper 70s, but subsidence and dry air associated with the high pressure area will help keep rain chances to a minimum. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 401 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026 The dry and cool post-frontal conditions seen this weekend will gradually warm and moisten toward the start of next week. A broad surface high over the eastern United States will veer winds to a more northeasterly flow, advecting warm moist air from the Atlantic waters. Thanks to this influx of moisture, temperatures and dewpoints will begin to climb going into early next week. High temps in the upper 70s to low 80s will return along with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. Heading into the middle of next week, a northern jet appears to set up aloft across North Florida. This jet could pull along with it a shortwave trough that is forecast to develop over the southern Plains, resulting in an increase in PoPs and surface winds for parts of SoFlo. Guidance agrees on the eastward propagation of this mid-level shortwave feature approaching the Florida peninsula around midweek. An associated surface low will develop and move east along with the parent mid-level shortwave. As this low nears Florida and interacts with the surface high settled over the eastern CONUS, a gradual tightening the pressure gradient over the SoFlo region will take place. Placement and intensity of the surface low will depend on the strength and positioning of the shortwave trough. Currently, GEFS, GEPS and EPS guidance suggest a weaker and more southerly track for the shortwave, which would push the associated surface low further south of the SoFlo region. Further analysis of these ensemble systems show some split within each model`s member envelope. The GEFS members appear split on whether the surface low will develop over the Gulf or over the coastal Carolina waters, which is also supported by the EPS ensemble membership. With all of these potential solutions to consider, uncertainty regarding the resulting sensible weather across South Florida mid-to- late next week remains high. What is more certain is that a tighter pressure gradient will increase surface winds early next week, particularly over coastal waters, calling for a gusty week ahead with the potential for hazardous marine conditions. Higher rain chances will be likely throughout the later half next week regardless of the positioning of the surface low. Activity should mostly be confined to the eastern metros as typical coastal convergence sets up around mid-week. However, given the scenario where the surface low sets up near the Carolinas rather than over the eastern Gulf, increased coastal convergence and moisture transport could increase rain chances. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across all South Florida terminals on Sunday and into early Monday. Light NNW winds at 5-10 kts at all east coast terminals should continue through the rest of the overnight and early morning period before becoming NNE by 15-16Z and ENE by 19Z. Confidence is increasing for at least a few SHRA to be near KDJT later tonight, so went ahead and included VCSH. Light NE winds of 5-10 kts continuing through the period at KAPF. && .MARINE... Issued at 114 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026 A fresh to strong northwesterly wind flow will be in place across the Atlantic waters this morning, decreasing to a gentle to moderate breeze during the afternoon hours and continuing into Sunday. A moderate to fresh northerly wind flow will be in place across the Gulf waters, becoming a northeasterly wind across all local waters on Sunday. Seas across the Atlantic waters today will be between 4-7 feet with seas across the Gulf waters remaining in the 2-4 feet range. Seas decrease to 3-5 feet across the Atlantic on Sunday and to 2-3 feet across the Gulf but increase once again into early next week as winds increase across the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 68 80 71 / 0 10 10 30 West Kendall 79 67 81 71 / 0 10 10 20 Opa-Locka 80 68 81 70 / 0 10 10 30 Homestead 80 69 81 72 / 0 0 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 78 69 79 71 / 0 0 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 78 68 79 71 / 0 0 10 20 Pembroke Pines 80 67 81 70 / 0 10 10 20 West Palm Beach 78 67 79 69 / 0 10 20 30 Boca Raton 78 68 79 70 / 0 10 10 20 Naples 78 62 81 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1285581 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:03 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1256 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes coming down the track as we approach 1 AM EST. Aviation discussion updated below for the 06Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dry weather will persist for most of the upcoming week. Below normal temperatures with frost and/or freeze conditions are expected each night and early morning through the middle of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather will persist for most of the upcoming week. Below normal temperatures with frost and/or freeze conditions are expected each night and early morning through the middle of the upcoming week. The mid/upper trough will deamplify, but linger across the eastern U.S. through at least Tuesday, with the axis shifting toward the east as a well amplified ridge extends from the Gulf Coast across the OH Valley and into the Great Lakes region. Moisture will remain very limited with this pattern, especially with the surface high also helping to suppress any return flow through the upcoming week. This period of dry weather will add to the rainfall deficiencies the area has experienced so far this year. ILM`s departure from normal is more than 11 inches, Florence and Lumberton more than 10 inches, and more than 20 inches in the Myrtle Beach area! In addition to the dry conditions, the swath of cold air supported by high pressure over the MS valley will result in freezing temperatures early this morning. Coastal areas are expected to be slightly warmer, but will experience areas of frost, especially away from the beaches. As a result, the inland Freeze Warning and coastal Frost Advisory remain in effect until 9 AM EST this morning. Frost looks likely again tonight into early Monday morning, with a few spots reaching freezing again. Frost is a good bet late each night into the early morning, especially inland areas through the middle of the upcoming week. Temperatures climb above normal by about Thursday or so. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR through the 06Z TAF period. NW flow continues, reaching a peak of 8-9 kts in the afternoon becoming calming by the evening. Extended Outlook...VFR through Thursday. && .MARINE... Through Thursday...Gentle to moderate breeze out of the NW will gradually veer to the N this evening, then NE by Monday. NE flow locks in through Thursday, remaining consistent at a moderate breeze along the coastal waters out 20 nm, up to a fresh breeze out 60 nm. Seas improve to 1-3 ft through tonight, before increasing to 2-3 ft along the coastal waters, 4-5 ft along the offshore waters out 60 nm by Tuesday. Seas should continue to increase Wednesday and Thursday, up to 2-4 ft along the coastal waters, 5-6 ft along the offshore waters. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ087-096-099- 105-109. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ106>108-110. SC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-055-058-059. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285580 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:54 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1247 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated 06z TAF/Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Frost and Freeze headlines are in effect for portions of Eastern Virginia and Northeast North Carolina late tonight through early tomorrow morning. Chilly weather continues through Tuesday. 2) Temperatures show a gradual warming trend mid- week through the weekend. Remaining dry. && .DISCUSSION... As of 650 PM EST Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Frost and Freeze headlines are in effect for portions of Eastern Virginia and Northeast North Carolina late tonight through early tomorrow morning. Chilly weather continues through Tuesday. Update: Based on the latest guidance, went ahead and replaced the Frost Advisory with a Freeze Warning for Bertie, Gates, and Suffolk. The Frost Advisory was expanded to include inland Currituck, Virginia Beach, and York. Previous Discussion: Temperatures that were at or below freezing were observed across the Richmond metro and points south resulting in the growing season being ended for portions of interior southeast VA and northeast NC. The season was already over for the piedmont west of Richmond. Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings will not be issued for these areas until the season resumes in Spring 2027. Early afternoon weather analysis indicates UL low pressure over New England with a strong attending trough that dips down toward the Gulf. The trough axis swinging through the Mid-Atlantic today has triggered broken-overcast mid level cloud cover across much of the local FA. At the sfc, high pressure over the Mississippi River valley is trying to build east behind a sfc low that is well offshore. NW winds are rather gusty as cold, dry air continues to advect into the area. Wind gusts between 20-30mph have been observed today. Latest temps are in the upper 40s across the far north and in the low 50s elsewhere. NBM bias correction has been a little overzealous as of late with overnight lows, so did decide to go a few degrees warmer than the NBM for the forecast. Nevertheless, clearing skies and lighter winds will still allow temps to drop to near or below freezing away from the immediate coast. The Eastern Shore will face lingering cloud cover and winds of 5-10kt, so lows around 40 forecast there. Widespread frost is expected for areas away from the immediate coast (excluding the Eastern Shore). A Frost Advisory has been issued for late tonight and early tomorrow morning for interior portions of eastern VA and northeast NC where the growing season has not technically ended. Tomorrow and Monday will be quite similar to today as the overall as the pattern will be slow to change. High pressure will slowly slide east and the UL will gradually weaken. Highs will be in the 50s and lows will be at or below freezing inland, mid-upper 30s at the coast. KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperatures show a gradual warming trend mid- week through the weekend. Remaining dry. High pressure remains largely in place through the end of the week. Aloft, the trough looks to finally move offshore around mid week, then a ridge builds in behind it. This will allow for a moderating trend in temperatures through the weekend. Forecast highs are in the mid 60s for Wednesday, then upper 60s Thurs-Sat. Lows will likely still drop into the 30s each morning. With dry high pressure in charge, there doesn`t look to be a relief from the dry spell anytime soon. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1245 AM EST Sunday... VFR conditions across area terminals early this morning prevail through the 06z/15 TAF period. Clouds have scattered out largely as expected, as high pressure builds into the region. A mainly clear sky is expected over the area through mid-morning, when clouds begin to increase again due to the NW flow and the persistent upper low over the eastern seaboard. CIGs remain in VFR range, but become BKN once again for a majority of the area by early to mid afternoon (bases ~5 to 7 kft AGL). Winds remain light early this morning, but become gusty (~20 knots) again by late morning into this afternoon. Outlook: VFR conditions are favored through midweek, as high pressure builds over the region. Gusty NW winds, gradually diminishing tonight through Monday. && .MARINE... As of 205 PM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all local waters. - High pressure builds into the region Sunday afternoon through at least mid week with sub-advisory conditions expected. Surface low pressure is now well offshore with high pressure noted over the Mississippi Valley. NW flow between these features remains elevated this afternoon with winds 15-25 kt, gusting 25-30 kt. Waves are 2-4 ft in the Ches Bay with seas 4-7 ft nearshore and 6-9 ft in the 20-60nm zones. SCA headlines remain in effect for all local waters this afternoon. Slow improvement is expected over the next 24 hours with SCAs ending in the rivers and Currituck Sound this evening. Headlines in the bay and ocean continue overnight. Small Craft Advisories in the bay are currently set to expire early Sunday afternoon with the latest guidance showing winds falling below SCA thresholds. However, an additional weak CAA surge could result in another period of marginal SCA conditions late Sunday afternoon into the evening hours, but confidence is too low to extend SCAs in the bay at this time. Strong high pressure builds into the region Sunday evening and well into next week with benign marine conditions expected. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ014-030. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ015>017-031- 032. VA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ529. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ076-084-085- 090-097-098-517>523. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658. && $$ |
| #1285579 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:39 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1223 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Inland Freeze & Frost This Morning. Freeze Warning for Jeff Davis, Appling, Bacon & Coffee Counties. Frost Advisory: Inland Southeast Georgia & Portions of Inland Northeast Florida - Marine & Surf Zone Hazards Return Monday. Small Craft Advisory Late Monday through Friday. High Risk for Rip Currents & Rough Surf && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights through Tonight: - Freezing temperatures inland SE GA, with frost potential over much of SE GA this morning After a frosty and chilly morning, temperatures will rise into the 60s area-wide today with mostly sunny skies as winds shift northeasterly. Low temperatures Sunday night won`t be as cold, but will drip into the upper 30s across portions of inland southeast Georgia, and in the 40s for the rest of inland areas. Near the coast and St. Johns river basin, lows will stay in the lower to mid 50s. Some patchy frost will be possible early Monday morning over far inland southeast Georgia. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Coastal Hazards Increase Monday Night & Tuesday Persistent and strengthening high pressure will be the main synoptic feature for the short term period, as the high center slowly shifts more towards our north as compared to the northwest. The second feature will be a shortwave trough moving eastward across the northern Gulf of Monday, moving across our region Monday Night and Tuesday. After a mostly dry but cloudy Monday, chances for showers increase near the coast and south/eastern areas Monday Night and through Tuesday as the upper level energy induces a weak inverted trough to form east of the Florida peninsula and therefore tightening the pressure gradient, setting up another northeasterly wind event. The good news is our astronomical tide cycle is generally approaching a new moon, and therefore little to no tidal flooding impacts are expected. However, continuous modest onshore flow will return elevated rip current potential as well as rough surf at area beaches (especially northeast FL beaches). High temps will top out in the 60s to low 70s each day, with Monday being towards the lower end thanks to the increase in cloud cover. There will be quite the gradient with mornings lows both Monday and Tuesday Morning thanks to the onshore flow, as interior GA and parts of the Upper Suwannee River Valley will see lows mainly in the 40s, quickly trending towards the 50s to near 60 further south and east. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Increasing Coastal and Marine Hazards Persistent northeast to east surface winds dominate Tuesday through Thursday as strong high pressure remains to the north and inverted troughing persists east of the area. There is also potential for a surface low forming toward the southeast Bahamas late week that tracks northeastward, though this would likely be non tropical in nature as a result of the aforementioned upper trough/low. Regardless, effects from this trough/low would essentially only maintain the enhanced pressure gradient across the area through mid week. Not much of a threat of coastal flooding with this next event since we between full and new moon phases. Similar to what was mentioned in the short term, the setup will mainly drive hazardous marine conditions for the Atlantic coast, including rough surf, high rip current risk and dangerous marine conditions for boaters. Elevated rain chances will persist for the coastal northeast FL area mid to late week, with the potential for occasional heavier downpours for Flagler and St Johns counties. High pressure starts to break down towards next weekend. Temperatures overall trend near average mid week before leaning above normal late week and the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... VFR conditions to prevail this TAF period. Winds will become more northeasterly by Sunday afternoon. && .MARINE... High pressure will build toward the northwest this weekend. The high will become centered more to the north early next week, with weak troughing developing over the coastal waters. This pattern will then persist through much of the upcoming week. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to begin late Monday, then continue through the week. Rip Currents: SE GA: Low through Sunday. NE FL: Moderate Sunday. Rip currents will trend toward a high risk early next week, and continuing through the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Cool and dry conditions are expected to generally moderate over the next few days as onshore flow remains persistent. This will especially be the case Monday and into Tuesday as the flow strengthens a bit, with chances for showers as well over south and east areas. Dispersions will remain in the fair to good range overall daily through Tuesday, despite more cloud cover for most. Northeasterly flow then looks to continue into mid week, with little change in the pattern expected through at least late week. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected through the weekend. Patchy frost will be possible over far inland southeast GA early Sunday. && .EQUIPMENT... The KJAX radar is down. Technicians are ordering a new azimuth motor and will work on the equipment early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 62 37 61 44 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 62 49 64 54 / 0 0 0 10 JAX 65 45 66 53 / 0 0 0 10 SGJ 67 55 68 60 / 0 0 0 40 GNV 67 46 69 54 / 0 0 0 20 OCF 69 49 72 56 / 0 0 0 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024- 030-035-120-220-322-422-522. GA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ136-149- 151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>135. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1285578 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:39 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1220 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 630 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026 - Another chilly night in store with lows in the 40s and 50s with a bit of a wind chill. - The next chance for rainfall will be mid-week with locally heavy rain possible near the coast. Coastal and marine hazards are likely mid to late week as East winds increase. - Extensive flooding continues along the St. Johns River due to exceptional rainfall in the upper reaches of the basin over previous weeks. The latest river forecasts are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026 Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery shows dry weather across east central Florida. GOES-19 satellite imagery and local observations indicate mostly to partly sunny skies. Temperatures are currently in the low to upper 60s with dew points in the low 30s to mid 40s. Winds are from the north at 5-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph. Analysis charts show expansive high pressure to the north of east central Florida (~1029mb) building over the central CONUS to the Midwest. Dry weather is expected tonight. Expect another cold night with low temperatures in the low to upper 40s along and north of I-4 and the upper 40s to mid 50s to the south. Apparent temperatures will be close to cold weather shelter thresholds but are expected to stay just at or above 40F north of I-4 with the low to upper 40s inland north and west of the Treasure Coast, as well as in the near the coast north of Titusville. The mid 40s to mid 50s are forecast elsewhere. There is a 0-50% chance for apparent temperatures to reach 40F or below, 0-30% for portions of Orange, 0-30% for portions of Lake, and 0-20% for portions of Volusia county. If the aforementioned criteria is met, then the apparent temperature threshold is likely to only occur for approximately 1-2 hours. Sunday-Monday... The dry weather is expected to persist through the weekend as high pressure builds to the north over the eastern CONUS. Rain chances increase over the local Atlantic waters and near the coast into the workweek as onshore flow develops, as well as an upper level trough deepens to the northwest of east central Florida over the Deep South. Below normal temperatures are expected with highs in the low to upper 70s, as well as lows in the low to mid 50s north of I-4 and the mid 50s to mid 60s to the south. Tuesday-Friday... Guidance has come into better agreement with the mid to long term forecast. There are still some differences in the strength of a trough/low that is forecast to track northeast over the western Atlantic and how close the trough/low gets to the eastern Florida coast which would make a difference on the level of coastal and marine impacts east central Florida is expected to experience mid to late week, as well as available moisture for east central Florida. The LREF-clusters are in fairly good agreement on the associated 500mb trough deepening over the state of Florida, in addition to the northern Florida and east central Florida Atlantic waters. Regardless, rain chances are expected to increase on Tuesday with scattered to numerous showers and a low chance of lightning. Rain chances are expected to remain above normal each day through the end of the workweek. Additionally, breezy to potentially windy conditions are forecast each day, as well as a coastal and marine impacts. Temperatures are forecast to be seasonable for highs and seasonable to below normal for lows. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026 Currently-Tonight... Favorable boating conditions and dry weather are forecast through tonight with high pressure to the northwest. North winds at 15-20kts are forecast to weaken tonight to 10-15kts. Seas to 2-4ft nearshore and 5-6ft offshore are forecast to diminish to 2-4ft tonight. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution across the Treasure Coast offshore waters. Sunday-Wednesday... Favorable boating conditions are expected to deteriorate on Monday and through midweek. Onshore moving isolated to scattered showers are forecast on Monday before rain chances increase Tuesday and Wednesday with scattered to numerous showers, as well as a low chance for lightning. Expect north- northeast winds at 10-15kts on Sunday to shift east at 15-25kts Monday and increase to 25-30kts on Wednesday. Seas to 2-4ft Sunday are expected to increase 3-5ft with up to 6ft offshore and over the Gulf Stream on Monday before increasing to 5-8ft Monday night into Tuesday, and 7-11ft on Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1220 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 Dry conditions persist at all terminals with north-northwest winds 5 to 10 knots early this morning shifting to out of the north- northeast late morning into this afternoon. VFR conditions areawide with no VIS or CIG reductions forecast. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 255 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026 River flood warnings remain in effect for Cocoa (COCF1), Geneva (GENF1), and Astor (ASTF1) on the St. Johns. The river west of Cocoa is in Major Flood Stage but appears to be cresting and is now forecast to begin a slow decline next week. The other points (Deland and Sanford) are forecast to remain in Action stage which is below Minor flood stage. River forecasts out five days are issued twice daily by the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB. There is potential for additional heavy rainfall early to mid next week, but there is currently a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast. We will continue to monitor this setup and any implications for ongoing flooding. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 72 58 73 61 / 0 10 20 40 MCO 74 58 74 63 / 0 0 10 30 MLB 75 63 76 66 / 0 10 50 30 VRB 77 63 78 66 / 0 10 50 30 LEE 72 54 73 58 / 0 0 0 30 SFB 73 57 74 61 / 0 0 10 30 ORL 73 58 74 62 / 0 0 10 30 FPR 76 62 77 65 / 0 10 50 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1285577 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:36 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1134 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1134 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026 - Another round of freezing temperatures is expected across northern portions of the area tonight, with frost possible across much of the remainder of the area away from the immediate coast. - Strong easterly winds develop over the marine area Monday, resulting in a High Risk of rip currents and potentially hazardous surf conditions through midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1134 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026 An eastern states upper trof mostly moves off into the western Atlantic through Monday, but in the process absorbs a system from the south central states. The result of this will be an upper trof progressing into the forecast area on Monday which then gradually moves off into the western Atlantic as upper ridging builds into the eastern states. A surface ridge remains over the forecast region through Friday, and am anticipating dry conditions to prevail through the period except for a few possible sprinkles near the coast on Monday as the upper trof moves across the area. A Freeze Warning remains in effect until 8 am Sunday morning well inland with a Frost Advisory for most of the remainder of the area north of the immediate coast. Overnight lows range from the lower 30s well inland to around 40 at the coast. Lows Sunday night and Monday night generally range from the lower/mid 30s well inland to the mid 40s at the coast, and it`s possible that a light freeze could occur each night over the northern periphery of the area. Highs on Sunday range from around 60 to the mid 60s, then Monday will be a bit cooler and range from the upper 50s to lower 60s. A warming trend follows for the rest of the week, with highs warming to the mid 70s for Thursday and Friday, and lows trending by Thursday night to range from the lower 40s well inland to the mid 50s at the coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Sunday then trends to a High Risk Monday into Monday night which continues through Wednesday. /29 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the period. The current light northerly winds become northeasterly to easterly around 5-10 knots Sunday morning. Gusts up to 15 knots are possible Sunday morning into the afternoon, especially near the coast. SS/97 && .MARINE... Issued at 121 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026 Light to moderate northeast flow increases to moderate to strong on Sunday. Strong high pressure to the north and lower pressure over the Gulf will result in an increasing pressure gradient over the northern Gulf early next week. In response, strong easterly to northeasterly flow and seas locally greater than 7 feet are expected to develop on Monday with advisory level conditions expected through much of the week over the Gulf waters. JGC/98 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 36 64 41 61 / 0 0 10 10 Pensacola 43 64 46 61 / 0 0 0 10 Destin 44 64 50 62 / 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 32 61 36 59 / 0 0 0 10 Waynesboro 33 62 37 62 / 0 0 10 0 Camden 31 59 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 33 62 38 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST Sunday for ALZ051>058. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST Sunday for ALZ059-060-261-262. FL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST Sunday for FLZ201-203-205. MS...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST Sunday for MSZ067. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST Sunday for MSZ075-076. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$ |
| #1285576 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:21 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1210 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Overcast conditions the rest of today give way to mostly sunny and breezy conditions on Sunday. Temperatures slightly cooler than normal through this weekend. - Prolonged period of dry and quiet weather, with moderating temperatures next week, yielding mild afternoons and cool nights. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Overcast conditions the rest of today give way to mostly sunny and breezy conditions on Sunday. Temperatures slightly cooler than normal through this weekend. Skies have trended toward mostly cloudy/overcast conditions with modest NW breezes, in response to a rather potent shortwave disturbance aloft seen on satellite imagery circulating near Montreal. While currently dry, there are a number of light but non- trace 1-hourly QPF amts being reported by METARs in northern New England; while dry weather generally prevails, a sprinkle or light shower are possible as this shortwave disturbance moves southward through Southern New England late this afternoon into early tonight. Any additional diurnal warming looks minimal today with the cloud cover and northerly breezes, in the upper 30s to the mid 40s! Early cloud cover and northwest breezes will keep temps from really dropping quickly, but decreasing clouds after midnight should bring lows down to the upper 20s to mid/upper 30s. We do expect there to be more sunshine on Sunday compared to today, although low-level thermal profiles still are rather cool. This should support better mixing with northwest gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range, which will add a bit of a chill despite sunny conditions. Expect highs in the mid to upper 40s, but it will feel closer to the mid-30s if you`re doing any hikes in the higher terrain. KEY MESSAGE 2...Prolonged period of dry and quiet weather, with moderating temperatures next week, yielding mild afternoons and cool nights. All guidance, including AI models, have large amplitude central US ridge this weekend slowly advecting to the East Coast next week. Hence, a prolong stretch of dry weather for SNE. Regarding temperatures, chilly to begin the week Monday, but height rises aloft will support warming temps and with surface high setting up across the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic region, this will place SNE in a warming WNW flow. Given this setup, wouldn`t be surprised if forecast highs overachieve into the mid 60s in the Wed-Fri timeframe! Thus, the temp theme next week will be cool highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s Monday, jumping into the 60s mid to late next week. These temps are about 10-15 degs warmer than normal for mid Nov. Dew pts in the 30s along with light winds, will result in a large diurnal temp spread, with seasonably cool nights, as lows dip into the 30s for most locations. The mild daytime temps likely linger into Fri, before a dry cold front moves across the region Fri/Sat. Ensembles suggest not much of a post frontal airmass change, with highs only cooling back to seasonal levels, with highs in the 50s. Hence, mild days and cool nights will be the theme for much of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update: Through 12z: High confidence. VFR. NW winds around 8-12 kt. Sunday...High confidence. VFR. NW winds increase to around 10-13 kt with gusts in low 20s kt range by 14-16z. Sunday night...High confidence. VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts. Monday...High confidence. VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Monday night through Thursday/... Monday night through Tuesday: VFR. Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Sunday Night: High confidence. SCAs still continue through tonight with the potential for northwest wind gusts to pick up to around 25 kt again this afternoon into early tonight, before a steadier decrease overnight tonight. NW wind gusts could resume at near-SCA criteria (20 kt, brief periods 25 kt possible) on Sunday mid- morning through sundown. Seas should be 4 ft or less all waters, with good visibility. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Monday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ255- 256. && $$ |
| #1285575 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:21 AM 15.Nov.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1217 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1210 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 - The first (light) freeze of the season is likely from the Alabama Wiregrass into the Flint River Valley late tonight into Sunday morning. A Freeze Warning is in effect from 1AM EST/12 AM CST to 9 AM EST/8AM CST for select AL & GA counties within those locations. - There is higher confidence in frost developing away from the coast late tonight into Sunday morning. A Frost Advisory is in effect from 1AM EST/12AM CST to 9AM EST/8AM CST for all inland counties. - Hazardous marine conditions return on Monday and persist through week when a tight pressure gradient produces advisory level northeast winds with occasional gale-force gusts. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 219 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026 Afternoon satellite and surface observations show a very dry (Precipitable Water < 0.3") post-frontal airmass brought about by broad upper troughing across the Eastern CONUS. Surface high pressure is anchored over the Midwest down to the Lower MS Valley. Our proximity to this High should allow winds to slacken tonight and set the stage for favorable radiational cooling. Temperatures will respond by tumbling into the low-mid-30s away from the Emerald Coast. Some mid-to-upper clouds moving in from the west late tonight into early tomorrow morning may interrupt the process, but we are confident enough in portions of the AL Wiregrass into the Flint River Valley experiencing their first (light) freeze of the season beforehand. The inherited Freeze Warning from the overnight shift was expanded in area to now include Lee-Dougherty-Mitchell- Baker-Miller County, GA. The environment is also more supportive of frost development across most inland locations. These overall cold conditions are impactful to sensitive vegetation and vulnerable people. High temperatures rebound into the 60s Sunday afternoon under a mix of sun and clouds. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 219 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026 A gradual warming trend gets underway starting Tuesday when well- defined upper ridging builds over the region. Prior to ridge`s arrival, a tight pressure gradient develops between strong high pressure over the OH/TN Valley and a Gulf Low skirting offshore from the Northern Gulf Coast. This temporary pattern yields abundant cloud cover with moist SW flow just above the surface overriding shallow cool NE flow on Monday. Monday is shaping up to be raw/gloomy with highs forecast to range from the upper 50s to mid 60s for most of the Tri-State area. Some light showers/rain/drizzle may also pass through, but little to no accumulation is expected as the axis of greatest precipitation should remain offshore. Overall dry weather prevails this period. Tuesday`s high temperatures rebound to the 60s, then increase to the 70s for the remainder of the work week. Lows in the 40s will be more common away from the coast, then become more mixed with 50s by mid- week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Patchy to areas of frost expected around sunrise. Winds will become more northeasterly through the afternoon with high clouds passing through. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026 An ASCAT pass at 1528Z showed NE winds 10-15 kts across our local Gulf waters. CWF Synopsis: Temporary favorable boating conditions prevail this weekend thanks to moderate to gentle northeast breezes. By Monday, a tightening pressure gradient prompts northeast winds to freshen, which then become strong on Tuesday. Occasional gale- force gusts are possible during that time. Hazardous marine winds and seas persist into next weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 219 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026 A cold and dry post-frontal airmass prevails the next 24-36 hrs with winds gradually increasing out of the northeast late this weekend into Monday. Near critically low RH is forecast over parts of SE AL, SW GA, and the FL Big Bend Sunday afternoon, but light winds and cool temperatures should preclude fire concerns. Moisture gradually rebounds thereafter. Abundant cloud cover on Monday yields highs ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s for much of the Tri-State area. There is a low chance of showers mainly along/south of I-10, though any wetting rains are not expected. Overall dry weather persists amidst a warming trend through this upcoming week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 219 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026 Little to no rainfall forecast precludes any hydrological concerns over the next several days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 64 43 61 49 / 0 0 10 10 Panama City 66 48 60 50 / 0 10 10 20 Dothan 62 40 57 44 / 0 10 10 10 Albany 62 38 58 43 / 0 10 0 10 Valdosta 65 41 62 47 / 0 0 0 10 Cross City 68 43 68 52 / 0 0 10 10 Apalachicola 65 50 62 54 / 0 0 10 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-326-426. GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ120>126- 142>145. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ127>131- 146>148-155>161. AL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST Sunday for ALZ065>067. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST Sunday for ALZ068-069. GM...None. && $$ |
