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The next few weeks are likely to remain quiet in the Atlantic basin.
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| #1233464 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 AM 07.Jun.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 325 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 Upper ridging centered over south Texas this morning. Shortwaves were noted over Oklahoma and western Nebraska, with a closed low off the California coast. At the surface, high pressure extended from east of Bermuda across much of the Gulf. A weak frontal boundary was near Interstate 40. Thunderstorms extended from northwest Arkansas to the Texas Panhandle early this morning. Closer to the local area, a few showers were off the coast of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, but the local area was mainly dry. Early morning temperatures ranged from the mid 70s to lower 80s. Conditions were rather humid with dew points in the mid 70s, and not much in the way of wind. The center of the upper ridge will drift westward a bit into northern Mexico by Sunday afternoon, with a weakness in the upper ridge over the Bahamas. That will turn the upper flow a bit more northwesterly, especially on Sunday. No real identifiable shortwave to impact the local area today, so any showers/storms today are likely to fire off small scale boundaries such as lake and sea breeze boundaries, similar to Friday afternoon. That should keep areal coverage rather low, and probably won`t see much, if any, development prior to midday. A shortwave moving across the middle Mississippi River Valley on Sunday may be close enough to provide a little more of a focus for convective development by late afternoon. Precipitable water values will be in the 1.7 to 1.8 range, with CAPE values near 2000 J/kg and no significant capping, so conditions will be sufficient to promote at least some storm development. A good bit of dry air in the 700-500 mb layer, and DCAPE values near 1200, so there`s at least some threat of rather gusty winds if convection gets deep enough, especially Sunday afternoon. High temperatures likely to be in the 90 to 94 degree range both today and Sunday. Overall, heat index values should top out around 105 both days. There will be isolated locations that could get close to our Heat Advisory criteria of 108, but due to the very limited extent of those readings, will not issue an advisory at this time. Afternoon storms could also provide cooling to hold readings down. Still, it is early in the season, and those with outdoor activities planned may not be acclimated to the conditions yet. Keep well hydrated and don`t be afraid to take breaks in the shade as necessary. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 A strong upper trough will move across the western Great Lakes Sunday night and Monday. A complex of thunderstorms over Oklahoma and Texas Sunday afternoon will move toward the local area Sunday night and Monday morning. Still uncertain whether that complex makes it to the local area intact, or dissipates before it reaches the area. Convection allowing models aren`t in particularly good agreement regarding this. If it dissipates, there will very likely be a remnant boundary to focus redevelopment by Monday afternoon. Again, forecast soundings indicate potential for strong to severe storms from about the Interstate 10/12 corridor northward. Beyond Monday evening, the Great Lakes trough pulls away to the east, returning the lower Mississippi River Valley to a regime that is more guided by mesoscale or smaller processes instead of a large complex of storms. In other words...a summertime pattern. This will bring a day to day chance of showers and storms, with any larger scale focus remaining west of the area through at least the end of the workweek. High temperatures each day will be guided by the timing of storm development. If it happens around midday, highs don`t get much higher than 90, if it is mid to late afternoon, then readings are closer to 93-94. Overnight lows are likely to remain in the mid and upper 70s for most areas. Not really a strong target of opportunity to make significant improvements to the NBM numbers. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Mainly VFR conditions will persist through the evening and much of the forecast period. A few isolated to scattered showers and storms could provide brief impacts to terminals again Saturday afternoon and additional SHRA or TSRA lines could be added in future updates as confidence increases on timing and location of impacts. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 Main concern for marine operations will be the threat of thunderstorms, especially from Sunday afternoon onward, as storms will be capable of producing localized gusty winds. Outside of the thunderstorm threat, likely to see an increase in winds across the eastern waters during the afternoon and evening hours, as is typical during the summer. Winds could top out around 15-17 knots for a few hours, and Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines may be briefly necessary on several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 93 74 92 73 / 20 0 40 40 BTR 94 76 94 76 / 30 0 40 20 ASD 93 75 92 75 / 20 0 40 30 MSY 93 78 94 78 / 30 0 40 10 GPT 91 76 92 76 / 20 0 40 50 PQL 92 75 92 75 / 20 10 40 50 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233463 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:30 AM 07.Jun.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 404 AM AST Sat Jun 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Increasing surface winds will likely generate moderate to locally fresh winds, resulting in wind-driven seas. Therefore, small craft operators should exercise caution. Small Craft Advisories may be needed across the offshore waters. * Warmer-than-normal temperatures are likely to continue through the weekend across most coastal and lower elevations of the islands.A heat advisory could needed on Monday. * Above-normal moisture associated with a tropical wave, along with increasing instability, might result in a rise in showers and thunderstorms by midweek next week. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Monday... Isolated morning showers will drift across the local waters, primarily affecting the eastern portions of Puerto Rico and the surrounding island, but are not expected to produce significant rainfall accumulations through at least mid morning. Showers amd cloud cover are expected to increase later this morning as available moisture combines with daytime heating and local sea breeze convergence, generating sufficient instability for convective development by early afternoon. The main area of activity will be over the western interior and northwestern Puerto Rico. Additionally, CU lines may develop over La Sierra de Luquillo and drift westward, potentially impacting the San Juan Metro area later this afternoon. A surface high pressure system over the central Atlantic will maintain an easterly wind flow, gradually shifting to an east- southeasterly direction later today. As the high pressure strengthens over the region, wind speeds are expected to increase, resulting in breezy to locally windy conditions across the forecast area. On Monday, a southerly component of the winds will increase the potential for high temperatures...a Heat Advisory could be issued. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday... Current model guidance has precipitable water (PWAT) values at up to above normal to start the long term period as moisture, in part from a tropical wave over the Caribbean Sea, is steered into the local islands under east-southeast flow. However, a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will also reach the islands, promoting hazy skies. While PWAT values will gradually decrease, a more notable mass of drier air is forecast to arrive by Friday. A surface high pressure over the Atlantic will continue building during the period, promoting breezy to locally windy easterly to east-southeasterly steering flow. A mid- level ridge will be present to start the period, but it will gradually weaken as a mid-level low moves into the central Atlantic. The typical diurnal pattern will continue with patches of moisture and showers reaching windward sectors of the islands, especially during the mornings and overnight hours, and with afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly over interior to western Puerto Rico due to sea breeze convergence, diurnal heating and local effects. Lines of showers can also develop downwind of the local islands and El Yunque. An elevated flood potential will persist over interior to western Puerto Rico. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s at lower elevations and coastal areas , with heat indices over 100 degrees. A limited heat risk will persist for most coastal and lower elevation areas. Lows will be in the 60s for higher elevations of Puerto Rico and in the 70s to around 80 over lower elevations of the islands. Although moisture will gradually decrease, the frequency of showers could be higher due to an upper level trough from the northeast, and another tropical wave moving into the Caribbean Sea by the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z Taf) Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals during the next 24 hours. Any SHRA that develops will be brief, ESE winds and local effects can produce VCSH near TJBQ/TJSJ through 07/22Z, no impacts to operations expected. Winds from the ESE at 15- 20kts, with higher gusts, through 07/23Z when they are expected to decrease. Winds will increase to similar values again after 08/13Z. && .MARINE...A surface high pressure system over the central Atlantic will continue to support moderate to locally fresh trade winds, shifting from the east to southeast over the weekend. This will generate choppy conditions across the local waters mainly during the peak of sea breeze wind speed enhancement. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop each afternoon over the western waters of Puerto Rico. Additionally, a tropical wave is forecast to move across the eastern Caribbean around Tuesday. && .BEACH FORECAST...Increasing winds across the region will continue to elevate the threat of rip currents along most beaches in Puerto Rico and USVI through the reminder of the weekend. As wind driven seas build, hazardous swimming conditions will become more widespread. Even when the rip currents threat is categorized as low , dangerous rip currents can still form unexpectedly, especially near structures such a piers, reefs, and jetties. Beachgoers are reminded to remain vigilant and exercise caution when entering the waters, regardless of the daily risk level. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1233462 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:18 AM 07.Jun.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 404 AM AST Sat Jun 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Increasing surface winds will likely generate moderate to locally fresh winds, resulting in wind-driven seas. Therefore, small craft operators should exercise caution. Small Craft Advisories may be needed across the offshore waters. * Warmer-than-normal temperatures are likely to continue through the weekend across most coastal and lower elevations of the islands.A heat advisory could needed on Monday. * Above-normal moisture associated with a tropical wave, along with increasing instability, might result in a rise in showers and thunderstorms by midweek next week. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Monday... Isolated morning showers will drift across the local waters, primarily affecting the eastern portions of Puerto Rico and the surrounding island, but are not expected to produce significant rainfall accumulations through at least mid morning. Showers amd cloud cover are expected to increase later this morning as available moisture combines with daytime heating and local sea breeze convergence, generating sufficient instability for convective development by early afternoon. the main area of activity will be over the western interior and northwestern Puerto Rico. Additionally, CU line may develop over La Sierra de Luquillo and drift westward, potentially impacting the San JUan Metro area later this afternoon. A surface high pressure system over the central Atlantic will maintain an easterly wind flow, gradually shifting to an east- southeasterly direction later today. As the high pressure strengthens over the region, wind speeds are expected to increase, resulting in breezy to locally windy conditions across the forecast area. On Monday, a southerly component of the winds will increase the potential for high temperatures...a Heat Advisory could be issue. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday... Current model guidance has precipitable water (PWAT) values at up to above normal to start the long term period as moisture, in part from a tropical wave over the Caribbean Sea, is steered into the local islands under east-southeast flow. However, a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will also reach the islands, promoting hazy skies. While PWAT values will gradually decrease, a more notable mass of drier air is forecast to arrive by Friday. A surface high pressure over the Atlantic will continue building during the period, promoting breezy to locally windy easterly to east-southeasterly steering flow. A mid- level ridge will be present to start the period, but it will gradually weaken as a mid-level low moves into the central Atlantic. The typical diurnal pattern will continue with patches of moisture and showers reaching windward sectors of the islands, especially during the mornings and overnight hours, and with afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly over interior to western Puerto Rico due to sea breeze convergence, diurnal heating and local effects. Lines of showers can also develop downwind of the local islands and El Yunque. An elevated flood potential will persist over interior to western Puerto Rico. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s at lower elevations and coastal areas , with heat indices over 100 degrees. A limited heat risk will persist for most coastal and lower elevation areas. Lows will be in the 60s for higher elevations of Puerto Rico and in the 70s to around 80 over lower elevations of the islands. Although moisture will gradually decrease, the frequency of showers could be higher due to an upper level trough from the northeast, and another tropical wave moving into the Caribbean Sea by the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z Taf) Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals during the next 24 hours. Any SHRA that develops will be brief, ESE winds and local effects can produce VCSH near TJBQ/TJSJ through 07/22Z, no impacts to operations expected. Winds from the ESE at 15- 20kts, with higher gusts, through 07/23Z when they are expected to decrease. Winds will increase to similar values again after 08/13Z. && .MARINE...A surface high pressure system over the central Atlantic will continue to support moderate to locally fresh trade winds, shifting from the east to southeast over the weekend. This will generate choppy conditions across the local waters mainly during the peak of sea breeze wind speed enhancement. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop each afternoon over the western waters of Puerto Rico. Additionally, a tropical wave is forecast to move across the eastern Caribbean around Tuesday. && .BEACH FORECAST...Increasing winds across the region will continue to elevate the threat of rip currents along most beaches in Puerto Rico and USVI through the reminder of the weekend. As wind driven seas build, hazardous swimming conditions will become more widespread. Even when the rip currents threat is categorized as low , dangerous rip currents can still form unexpectedly, especially near structures such a piers, reefs, and jetties. Beachgoers are reminded to remain vigilant and exercise caution when entering the waters, regardless of the daily risk level. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1233461 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:48 AM 07.Jun.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 343 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 340 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 Upper level ridge to our west and southwest will begin to be suppressed this afternoon and into tonight as a broad US longwave trough amplifies over the central and eastern US and several shortwaves progress through this trough. While the strongest of the upper level flow will remain well to our northwest, we`ll begin to see increasingly stronger mid-upper level flow in place from the west. Another warm and unstable afternoon will allow scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorms to develop through the morning and afternoon. Similar to the past few days, activity will begin over marine and coastal zones this morning, like we`re already seeing at this hour, and spread/develop inland as the Gulf seabreezes move inland. Coastlines with favorable orientations for seabreeze/synoptic convergence in westerly flow, like the western portions of the Apalachee Bay, will see slower inland progression of the seabreeze and likely an enhancement in activity through the day. With slightly stronger mid-level flow and somewhat higher DCAPEs still in place, a few of the stronger more organized clusters of storms could contain strong wind gusts up to 40 or 50 mph. While likely not to be an issue through much of the day and evening, stronger ascent to our north, and the potential maintenance/development of more organized storms moving east- southeast from northern Mississippi and northern Alabama could bring a low-end chance of severe weather in the overnight hours should it hold together. Whether this system, called an MCS (mesoscale convective system), develops is still highly dependent on what happens upstream but for our residents in southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia, it`s worth monitoring how that complex of storms, if it even develops, is unfolding later this evening to see what sort of severe threat is possible later this evening and or overnight. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 340 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 Active weather is expected with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the northern half of the forecast area. Forecast soundings indicate higher than average deep layer shear for June standards with plenty of instability. With at least weak upper level forcing and a surface boundary slowly moving southward, the stage is set for a few strong to severe storms and the potential for heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding due to training convection. The greatest potential for these hazards is across portions of southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama, although some activity could move into Florida panhandle and big bend. Activity could linger well into the nighttime hours as well. Temperatures are forecast to be very summer-like with lows in the lower to middle 70s and highs ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s with dewpoints in the 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 340 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 For the remainder of the week, rain chances remain elevated thanks to an upper level trough over the eastern third of the country keeping us in a continued muggy environment. PWATs are forecast to remain in the 1.7" to 2.0" range, or the upper quartile for mid- June. Scattered to numerous showers and storms remain in the forecast each day. Summer-like temperatures will also continue with highs in the lower to middle 90s and lows in the lower to middle 70s each day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 122 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 Patchy areas of MVFR to LIFR ceilings are possible around 10-13z this morning before conditions quickly return to VFR with afternoon heating. Light westerly winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect area terminals from 16-00z this afternoon bringing occasional MVFR visibilities in heavier showers/storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 340 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 A surface high sprawling across the southwestern Atlantic and eastern Gulf will continue to bring light to moderate southwesterly winds to our waters through the weekend. Seas will generally run between 2 to 3 feet. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast through the weekend along with the potential for a morning waterspout or two just off the coast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 340 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 Aside from elevated dispersions, especially across southeast Alabama and portions of southwest Georgia, fire weather concerns should be mostly low due to humid conditions and relatively light winds. A wetter pattern remains in place through the next few days and the main concerns outside higher dispersions and instability will be gusty/erratic winds in the vicinity of any thunderstorms. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 340 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 Locally heavy rain remains possible within any of the showers or storms thanks to precipitable water values (PWATs) between 1.7" to 2.0", or near the 90th percentile for early-mid June. 3hr Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) remains between 2.5" to 3.5" in the more urban areas and 3" to 5.5" in our more rural locations. These values are forecast to gradually decrease the next few days thanks to daily rain chances. Isolated flash flooding is a possibility Sunday and Monday as clusters of thunderstorms could train over the area, especially as we see the soil continue to moisten with each round of showers and storms. The best chance of that occurring is across southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama. Fortunately, area rivers and streams remain in good shape with gradual rises possible as more and more rain falls across the region. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 92 74 93 75 / 70 20 70 40 Panama City 89 78 89 77 / 40 20 50 60 Dothan 93 75 92 72 / 60 40 70 60 Albany 93 74 91 72 / 50 40 80 60 Valdosta 93 74 93 74 / 50 20 70 40 Cross City 91 74 91 73 / 40 20 60 30 Apalachicola 87 78 87 77 / 30 20 60 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ108-112. High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233460 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:30 AM 07.Jun.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 323 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Active weather pattern continues as multiple frontal boundaries impact the region. A few storms may become strong to severe severe this weekend, with damaging winds expected to be the primary hazard. A brief reprieve in heat then returns early next week in the wake of a strong cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: Aloft, the pattern will feature mostly zonal flow with embedded shortwave energy poised to pass by mostly to the north of the forecast area. At the surface, high pressure over the Atlantic will extend westward back across the FL peninsula while a lee trough will be in place east of the southern Appalachians. For the daytime hours, this setup is expected to yield warm and humid conditions without much (if any) convective coverage. Model soundings generally depict MLCAPE values on the order of 1,500-2,000 J/kg but without much in the way of an initiating mechanism. With the lee trough situated inland, surface winds will be westerly for most of the day which should work to keep the sea breeze pinned closer to the coast and not particularly progressive. So while we could see isolated convection along the coastal corridor in the afternoon, we aren`t expecting much in the way of coverage and we have kept rain chances in the 20 percent range. The main effect of the westerly low-level flow will be to support high temperatures in the low to mid 90s. With dewpoints forecast to be in the low 70s during peak heating, we should see widespread heat index values in the 100-105 degree range, falling a few degrees short of Heat Advisory criteria. Winds will be breezy beginning around late morning, with frequent gusts up to around 20 mph through the afternoon. This evening and tonight: It appears that the best chance for convection will come during the evening hours and will be largely dependent on upstream convection moving in from the west at some point in the evening. Hi-res model data is quite mixed on the speed, placement, and even existence of the upstream convective complex in question and its potential to impact some or all of the forecast area. At this point, current thinking is that a convective complex will move across north and central GA in the late afternoon or early evening hours and then push into the forecast area at some point in the 7-9pm time period. Given the westerly flow aloft and the track across north and central GA, it appears the area that stands the best chance of seeing thunderstorms will be our southeast SC counties. Despite the timing being after diurnal heating and into the evening, the environment should be largely undisturbed. The complex will likely be quite progressive thanks to ~30 knots of mid- level flow. Model soundings also suggest DCAPE values of 1,000 J/kg or higher, supporting a damaging wind gust threat with any thunderstorms that move through. The area we think stands the best chance to be impacted remains in the SPC Day 1 Slight Risk threat area, primarily for the wind threat. Whatever does move through during the evening should shift offshore and away from the coast through the early morning hours. The rest of the overnight should be dry and mild with temperatures falling into the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Balmy conditions continue Sunday, with afternoon highs largely in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Thus, similar to Saturday, expect heat indices to rise into the 90s to lower 100s, with the warmest values remaining along and east of I-95. As always, we encourage you to remain hydrated and to take break indoors as needed. In regard to precipitation, Sunday`s atmosphere and setup will be largely conditional on how Saturday pans out. If convection does reach our area, could see showers linger through daybreak, which would put a slight damper on additional development later that afternoon as the atmosphere works to stabilize itself. However, if the convection fizzles out before reaching us Saturday night, think there is a decent chance that our area could see some strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon and evening. In terms of dynamics, soundings still show ample CAPE (upwards of 2000+ J/kg), DCAPE values between 500 to 1000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 35 kt, and steep low to mid level lapse rates (7-8 degC/km). All this to say, IF storms do develop, believe damaging winds (60+ mph) and hail to the size of quarters or slightly larger would be possible. We encourage you to remain weather ready and have multiple ways to receive warnings! Otherwise, look for upper level troughing across the Ohio River Valley to deepen Monday as an upper level low builds over the Great Lakes region. Sfc cold front ahead of this feature will take aim at the region Monday afternoon, before stalling out that evening. As a result, look for renewed chances for showers and storms to return to the forecast. Expect the aforementioned upper level trough to continue its journey eastward Tuesday, pushing yet another sfc cold front toward the region. This will allow us to see a brief reprieve from the heat, as afternoon highs settle back into the mid to upper 80s. Lows during this time will still remain quite mild though, as temperatures only fall into the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upper level pattern shifts heading into Wednesday, with flow becoming quasi-zonal ahead of modest ridging. Meanwhile, at the sfc, will see a few frontal boundaries meander around the region. As such, will likely see daily chances for diurnally driven showers and storms continue, especially during the late afternoon hours as the seabreeze pushes inland. Otherwise, look for highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s to remain common, with overnight lows generally in the lower 70s. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions should prevail for most of the 06z TAF period at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV. Winds will be westerly for much of the day, with frequent gusts into the 17-20 knot range expected. While there could be an isolated shower or thunderstorm nearby in the afternoon, it appears the best chance for thunderstorms will come during the evening hours and in the last 6 hours or so of the 06z TAF period. Model guidance remains quite uncertain, but there is potential for clusters of storms to move in from the west this evening. The best chances are at KCHS and KJZI, and we have added VCTS starting at 01z. Extended Aviation Outlook: Typical summertime convection pattern will bring periodic flight restrictions through early next week. && .MARINE... Today and tonight: The gradient will tighten across the local waters today, allowing for elevated southwest flow into the 15-20 knot range for much of the waters this afternoon and evening. In fact, there could be a few 25 knot gusts across the SC waters as well as in Charleston Harbor. However, we think conditions will fall just shy of Small Craft Advisory thresholds. Seas should peak around 3 feet today, then increase up to around 4 feet this evening and overnight as winds increase. Sunday through Tuesday: Expect west south-westerly winds to prevail throughout the period, with sustained speeds between 10 to 20 kt. Winds could become a bit breezy at times, with gusts up to 23 kt possible as the sea breeze moves inland. Otherwise, look for seas to range between 2 to 4 ft throughout the period. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 7: KCHS: 75/2021 KCXM: 79/2021 June 8: KCHS: 76/1980 KCXM: 78/2021 KSAV: 79/1881 June 9: KCHS: 77/1978 KSAV: 77/1877 June 11: KCHS: 76/2020 KSAV: 76/2010 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1233459 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:21 AM 07.Jun.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 311 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will bring showers and isolated thunderstorms with pockets of heavy rainfall later today and especially this afternoon. Dry weather returns tonight and continues into Sunday with pleasant temperatures. A few showers are possible on Monday, but the bulk of the rain with the next system will hold off until Tuesday. Dry and warmer weather follows for Wednesday and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Key Messages... * Areas of fog this morning especially near the south coast * Showers/isolated t-storms with pockets of heavy rain today * Bulk of the rain overspreads the region between 11 am and 3 pm * Highs mainly in the 70s with some upper 60s on the immediate coast Details... Dry weather dominated very early this morning but areas of fog were expanding across the region. Some of the fog may be locally dense especially near the south coast. We do expect visibility to improve in most locations later this morning and afternoon...but fog may flirt with areas near the coast all day. A slow moving cold front approaches from the west later today and will combine with Pwats over 1.50" along with good forcing on the boundary. The result will be band of widespread showers with isolated t-storms that moves across the region from west to east. Outside a few showers into mid morning...the bulk of the rain will arrive from west to east in the 11 am to 3 pm time frame. Given the amount of forcing and high Pwat values some of the showers will contain heavy rainfall. This may result in typical nuisance street flooding...but the environment is not as favorable for the localized flash flooding that we saw yesterday. The instability will be less...generally on the order of 400-800 J/KG. Therefore...we will not be issuing a Flood Watch at this time...but it is something later shifts may need to consider based on radar trends. Regardless...pocket of heavy rainfall and brief poor drainage street flooding are certainly possible. The severe weather threat is also rather low today...given limited instability and lots of cloud cover. Clouds and showers will keep high temperatures mainly in the 70s today...but locations along the coast may only see highs in the upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Key Messages... * Any lingering showers depart this evening * Otherwise, dry with some fog tonight...lows 55-60 * Partly sunny with highs in the 70 to near 80 on Sunday Details... Tonight... Shortwave and associated cold front will exit the region this evening...taking any lingering showers with it. Otherwise...dry and pleasant tonight and a bit cooler too with lows mainly in the 55-60 degree range. Light winds coupled with leftover low level moisture will likely result in areas of fog developing overnight. Sunday... A brief ridge of high pressure builds into the region. This will result in a mixture of clouds and sunshine and a pleasant end to the weekend. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 75 to 80 degree range...but cooler lower 70s on the immediate coast with onshore flow. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Messages: * Scattered showers and cooler temperatures Monday and Tuesday * Clearing Wednesday into Thursday with highs reaching the low to mid 80s Details... Onshore flow continues through Monday, allowing for a lengthier period of cooling and for high temps to remain in the mid 60s to low 70s across southern New England. Most guidance is indicating a low moving northeast off the coast to our south on Monday, bringing some scattered showers to the region Monday. Still quite uncertain on the exact track of the low... the ECMWF and NAM are indicating a closer pass to the Cape and Islands, which would bring more rain to southern New England, while the GEM and GFS are favoring more of an offshore solution, which would keep most of the rain over the waters. A warm front is expected to move through Tuesday, placing the region in the warm sector and elevating surface moisture, once again bringing rain chances. With rain looking possible for most of the day, highs are likely to remain in the 70s. A cold front passes through Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, shifting winds back to the west and ushering in some drier air. Drier and clearer conditions likely Wednesday heading into Thursday post-FROPA. With the clearing skies, high temps look to rebound into the 80s for the second half of the week. Lows through the extended period not expected to change much from night to night, remaining mostly in the 50s and 60s across southern New England. Unsettled conditions return heading into the weekend, bringing more chances for showers. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update... Today...Moderate confidence. Generally expect MVFR-IFR conditions to dominate today with some localized LIFR conditions possible...especially this morning near the south coast where some dense fog is expected. We do expect the bulk of the showers to overspread the region in the 15z to 19z time frame from west to east. These showers may contain pockets of heavy rainfall along with isolated thunderstorms. Light S winds will shift to the N this afternoon with sea breezes along the coast. Tonight...Low confidence. Variable conditions expected tonight. We do expect some VFR conditions to work into western MA/northern CT...but leftover low level moisture may allow areas of fog to develop and allow MVFR-IFR conditions to return. MVFR-IFR conditions with localized LIFR conditions probably dominate east of the CT River with low clouds and areas of fog persisting. Sunday...High confidence in trends but lower confidence in timing. Lingering MVFR-IFR conditions will improve to VFR from west to east through lunchtime...but may take a tad longer across the Cape and Islands. E winds generally at 5 to 10 knots. BOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. Bulk of the showers likely occur after 16z/17z where a brief rumble or two of thunder is possible until 22z-23z. BDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. Bulk of the showers likely occur after 14z/15z where a brief rumble or two of thunder is possible until 20z/21z. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Sunday...High confidence. A relatively weak pressure gradient will keep winds below small craft advisory thresholds today through Sunday. However....a wave of low pressure and its associated southerly swell will be enough to generate 4 to 5 foot southerly swell later today into tonight across our southern outer-waters. Therefore...we have hoisted a small craft advisory for those waters later today into tonight but conditions should drop back below criteria for Sunday. The biggest issue for mariners will be areas of fog...some of which will be locally dense especially over our southern waters during the overnight and morning hours. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ254>256. && $$ |
| #1233458 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:12 AM 07.Jun.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 305 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves into the region today, before lingering over the area Sunday. Afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected both today and Sunday, with severe weather possible. Drier weather returns on Monday, with increasing storm chances again on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Saturday... Key Message: - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening. The highest coverage of storms, and the greatest SVR potential will be across the southern 1/2 of the area. Early morning wx analysis shows a cold front draped over the northern Mid-Atlantic, and the progressive pattern aloft remains in place with fast zonal flow over the eastern CONUS. A shortwave is quickly approaching, and will slide across the region later this morning. Still seeing some isolated showers over the area with mild/humid wx in place. The cold front approaches from the NNW later today and this (along with a prefrontal trough) will serve as a trigger for convective initiation. No more than scattered showers/isolated tstms are expected through early aftn. While there are some questions regarding sfc heating farther north, temps should rise well into the 80s-near 90F south of a FVX-PTB line with upper 60s- 70F dew pts area-wide. This will allow for ample instability (1000- 1500 J/kg MLCAPE) along and south of I-64 despite meager mid-level lapse rates (5.5 to 6C/km), while modest height falls and the approaching cold front provide the necessary lift for convection to develop by 2-3 PM. Initial development will likely be across central/eastern VA. Then, there is very good agreement in the 00z/07 CAMs that tstms increase in coverage as they move to the SE during the late aftn/evening before exiting the area late in the evening/overnight. Unsure how much in the way of storms form across northern areas (from LKU-SBY) where sfc heating won`t be as strong. But, now have high confidence in at least scattered tstms along and south of I-64. One factor that could suppress convection today is if morning clouds/showers linger long enough to impact convective initiation during the aftn/evening. With the instability in place combined with 30-40 kt of effective shear, strong to severe tstms are possible. The highest threat is south of I-64 where SPC has a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for severe wx, while the Marginal Risk has been maintained farther N. Still looks like primarily a damaging wind threat with storm mode likely becoming linear...although the initial cells may be able to produce small hail (not as confident in large hail given high freezing levels and only 5.5 to 6C/km mid- level lapse rates). In addition to the severe threat, localized urban/poor drainage flooding cannot be ruled out across SE VA/NE NC. PWs will be near 2" and despite the relatively fast storm motions/dry antecedent conditions...a quick 2-3" would cause some issues. Given the agreement in the CAMs, the 00z/07 HREF as 10%+ probs of 3" in 3 hours across our SE zones. As such, WPC has introduced a MRGL Risk for Excessive Rainfall in these areas. Showers/tstms should temporarily exit after 10 PM or so, but another shortwave in the fast zonal flow aloft (along with an associated sfc low) begin to approach Sunday AM. The approaching sfc low will allow the front to start moving back north as a warm front...and despite the unfavorable timing in the diurnal cycle...we could see scattered showers and isolated tstms develop as the front moves back north through part of the CWA (mainly between 4-10 AM). Lows tonight will mainly be in the mid 60s to around 70F. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected again Sunday as a frontal boundary lingers across the region. - A few of the storms may be strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts being the main threat. A brief tornado can`t completely be ruled out near the front. The front continues to move north on Sunday before stalling as secondary low pressure develops and tracks from W-E along it. The position of the front Sunday afternoon will dictate where the highest severe threat is as another robust shortwave aloft is progged to quickly cross the region during the aftn-evening. A few showers (with perhaps a rumble of thunder) are possible Sunday morning, with scattered-numerous tstms expected once again during the aftn/evening. Similar to Saturday, the main focus for severe wx will be along and south of that front. Models differ on how far north the front makes it, with the NAM and some of the CAMs showing it from FVX-RIC-JGG during the aftn, while the HRRR and a few other CAMs are farther north and shows the front making it to northern portions of the CWA. Regardless, it appears as if the most likely timing for severe wx is from 2-10 PM Sunday. Instability/deep shear parameters on Sunday look to be roughly similar to what they will be today. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat, but large hail can`t completely be ruled out, given somewhat more favorable mid level lapse rates (potentially 6 to 6.5 C/Km). Lastly, there is a low but non-zero tornado threat near the front where winds will be locally backed and more out of the SE. SPC has expanded the SLGT (Level 2/5) Risk to include the entire area on Sunday. There will also be the potential for locally heavy rainfall/localized flooding given PWATs remaining elevated and with the front nearly parallel to the mid level flow. Precip quickly exits after 10-11 PM Sun night once again with lows falling into the mid-upper 60s. By Monday, PW anomalies return to near normal with the front washing out across NC, so PoPs are mainly 20% or less, with the exception of 20-30% near the Albemarle Sound. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 AM EDT Saturday... Key Message: - Unsettled conditions return Tuesday, with mostly dry weather expected by Wednesday/Thursday. Scattered-numerous aftn/evening tstms are once again expected on Tuesday as moisture increases ahead of another (fairly strong) shortwave trough pushing through the lower Great Lakes. There will likely at least some sort of organized severe threat given that the mid-level flow will be 30-45 kt with a decent amount of instability to work with. By Wednesday, high pressure and drier conditions potentially return to the region as the trough axis moves offshore. Dry wx continues on Thu, with isolated aftn/evening convection potentially returning on Fri. Temperatures will be near normal Tue, then trending above normal later in the week with highs into the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 150 AM EDT Saturday... Lingering showers are diminishing across the region early this morning. Patchy MVFR conditions are noted in areas that received showers and storms on Friday. SBY and vicinity is seeing more widespread IFR conditions. Brief departures into LIFR are possible in these areas through roughly 12z. IFR/MVFR conditions will linger into mid morning for the MD Eastern Shore. Generally VFR this afternoon at all sites with potential for widespread showers and storms after 20z (later along the coast) as a weak front approaches the area. Low confidence in timing and placement of convection precludes anything more than PROB30 mention at this time. This front is expected to linger in vicinity of the region Sunday with a high chance of showers/tstms continuing. The latest guidance shows the front pushing S of the region Monday. Showers/storms return Tuesday aftn/evening, then a bit drier again Wednesday. && .MARINE... As of 300 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected through the weekend. - Potential for scattered strong thunderstorms across the waters late this afternoon into the evening and again on Sunday. Weak low pressure is noted off the MD coast. Winds are very light across the waters with most observations showing less than 5 kts. Waves are around 1 foot with seas 2-4 ft. Guidance suggests swell energy will propagate toward shore early this morning through sunrise or so before decreasing this afternoon. Undercut the wave guidance as it was showing 4-6 ft seas across the northern coastal waters by 3am. Otherwise expecting generally light flow through early afternoon before winds turn onshore late this afternoon into the evening at 5-10 kt. A prefrontal trough will help to initiate showers and storms over inland areas this afternoon, moving toward the coast this evening. A few of these could be locally strong to severe with gusts 35-50 kt possible. The southern Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters have somewhat higher chances strong storms this evening vs points to the north. Sub-SCA conditions continue tonight (outside of any thunderstorm influences). Onshore flow develops again by Sunday afternoon with greater coverage of showers and storms expected area wide from late afternoon into the early overnight hours. Strong winds will be the main threat once again on Sunday. An area of low pressure potentially forms along the front early next week (late Monday into Tuesday) which could allow the front to drop south of the waters by mid week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1233457 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:06 AM 07.Jun.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 300 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 259 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 - Hot and very humid conditions with scattered daily lightning storms into early next week. - Hazy skies this weekend due to the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). - A Moderate Risk for rip currents continues at area beaches through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 This Weekend...High pressure ridging continues across the south- central FL peninsula, with dominant SW/W flow "backing" along the coast in the afternoon, but w/o much penetration inland due to the dominant WRLY flow. Aloft, mid-level ridging expands across the Gulf and across the southern FL peninsula. 500 mb temps remain unimpressive at -6C to -7C with lapse rates modest at best. Going with below seasonal PoP numbers this weekend (and well below NBM - continue to blend in CONSALL values), 30pct this afternoon/evening and perhaps as high as 40pct for north Brevard northward on Sun. ISOLD to WDLY SCT convection may develop in the afternoon along the (nearly) pinned ECSB and perhaps slightly higher chances as the WCSB interacts with the ECSB and any other outflow boundaries late in the day and early evening. Most of the activity will diminish or move off of the coast by around mid-evening. Primary storm impacts remain wind gusts of 30-40 mph (but up to 50 mph if storms can take advantage of drier air aloft), occasional to frequent lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall. Temps remain very warm with conditions humid as maxes realize L- M90s, with peak heat indices of 98-103F. Overnight mins continue in the L-M70s. Mon-Fri...The surface ridge continues to push further seaward from mid to late week, with the associated ridge axis drifting northward. As such, the ECSB should be able to penetrate further inland from Tue onward as the overall flow becomes ESE/SE nearly areawide and daily sea breeze collisions will be well into the interior. W/SW storm steering weakens Mon/Tue, then becomes light to variable on Wed, then SERLY Thu/Fri. The WRLY flow in the mid-levels weakens by Wed with weak mid-level ridging building back toward the FL peninsula from the western Atlc. A few mid-level impulses will traverse the north-central peninsula early in the period, but generally remain north. Continue to undercut the absurd NBM PoP numbers down to 50-60pct which, too, could also be generous. High temps remain hot through at least Tue, before a more dominant east coast sea breeze develops into mid-late week. Highs remaining in the L-M90s early in the week, then U80s to L90s Wed- Fri. Overnight mins continue in the L-M70s. Peak heat indices 98-105F remain forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 259 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 Today-Wed...Continued generally favorable boating conditions through mid-week next week, as high pressure ridging remains across the south-central FL peninsula. The main threat will be scattered offshore-moving showers and lightning storms each afternoon and evening. South to southwesterly flow will back southeasterly along the coast each afternoon and increase to 10-15 kts as the east coast sea breeze develops, but remains pinned close to the coast through early next week. Seas 1-3 ft. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 155 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Light W to SW flow through sunrise will increase around 10 knots with some gusts 15-17 knots developing in the afternoon. This will produce a small crosswind issue at MCO and also delay the sea breeze a bit from forming then reaching the coastal terminals. Have followed GFS LAMP and NBM MOS both showing no sea breeze at DAB. Other coastal terminals should see a SE wind shift by 20Z. Mainly dry conds forecast today with low prob of SHRA mainly assocd with the sea breeze near the coast late in the day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 93 73 94 72 / 30 10 40 10 MCO 93 74 94 74 / 30 10 30 10 MLB 92 74 91 74 / 30 10 30 20 VRB 92 72 92 74 / 30 20 20 10 LEE 93 75 92 74 / 30 10 30 10 SFB 94 74 94 74 / 30 10 30 10 ORL 93 76 94 75 / 30 10 30 10 FPR 92 72 91 73 / 30 20 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1233456 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:00 AM 07.Jun.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 253 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 POPs will continue to run significantly below NBM guidance through the forecast period. High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the region through the weekend. Residual SAL will persist over much of the area with wedge of dry mid level air acting to suppress convection each day. The surface ridge axis will hold across the Florida straits with onshore west to southwest boundary layer flow. This will push the west coast sea breeze inland by early afternoon with only a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm across west central and southwest Florida today...with again slight chance pops over the coastal counties and low end chance pops over the interior during the mid/late afternoon on Sunday. Deep layer moisture will begin to recover on Monday from south to north...with drier air aloft likely holding over the northern forecast area. Onshore boundary layer flow will continue with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing during the late morning/early afternoon over the coastal counties...then pushing inland with a slight increase in areal coverage during the mid/late afternoon. The surface ridge axis will lift north across the central Florida peninsula on Tuesday. This will lead to best chance pops over inland areas during the mid/late afternoon hours as west/east coast sea breeze boundaries likely to collide over the interior and enhance shower/thunderstorm activity. Wednesday through Friday...the surface ridge axis will continue to lift north with east to southeast boundary layer flow developing across west central and southwest Florida. This should hold the west coast sea breeze boundary over the coastal counties...with the east coast sea breeze boundary colliding with the west coast sea breeze late in the day enhancing shower/thunderstorm activity...with highest pops each day over the coastal counties. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 229 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours with skies today generally FEW040 SCT250. Only slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm on Saturday with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs. && .MARINE... Issued at 229 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 High pressure will hold over the waters through the period with winds remaining below cautionary levels. Main hazard will be a few showers/thunderstorms mainly during the late night/early morning hours. As the wind flow shifts to the east/southeast middle of next week...best chance of showers/storms will be during the evening hours as storms move off the mainland and over the coastal waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 229 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 79 91 79 / 20 0 20 10 FMY 93 76 92 76 / 20 10 20 20 GIF 94 75 94 75 / 20 10 30 10 SRQ 89 77 89 76 / 10 10 20 10 BKV 91 72 92 71 / 20 0 20 10 SPG 88 79 88 79 / 20 10 20 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1233455 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:54 AM 07.Jun.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 248 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Westerly steering flow will continue to keep convection suppressed below normal levels with just scattered showers and storms expected today as the East Coast sea breeze will remain pinned close to the coast. This will lead to Hot and Humid conditions with highs in the lower to middle 90s, while the westerly flow will push the heat all the way to the beaches with peak heat indices around 105F this afternoon. The faster westerly flow will still lead to isolated strong to severe storms with damaging winds the main threat, especially across SE GA during the afternoon and evening hours. Above normal temps will continue tonight with lows only falling into the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 High surface pressure over the area Sunday and Monday will bring winds out of the southwest, helping to pull in moisture in from the Gulf and aid the Gulf coast seabreeze to make its way well inland. This moisture coupled with diurnal heating and seabreeze convergence will create unstable conditions and help drive afternoon convection. The Storm Prediction Center has southeast Georgia under a slight risk (2 out of 5) for severe storms Sunday as shortwaves are expected to move through the area, allowing for the development of stronger storms. The main concerns with these stronger storms will be gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall. High daytime temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s over northeast Florida and in the upper 80s to low 90s over southeast Georgia. Overnight lows will dip into the low to mid 70s. Early morning patchy fog will be possible in areas that received rain each morning. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 High pressure and moisture from the Gulf continues into the long term, helping to keep the wet weather pattern going. Seabreeze convergence and diurnal heating will be the main driver for afternoon convection. Some stronger storms will be possible as upper level shortwaves move across the area. Daytime high temperatures will be above seasonal average at the start of the week and cool to near normal by mid week as winds begin to shift from the southwest to south to southeast. Daytime highs are expected to be in the upper 80s to low 90s over southeast Georgia and low to mid 90s over northeast Florida with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s at inland locations with areas along the coast staying slightly warmer. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 114 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 VFR with high clouds tonight and low chances of afternoon storms in westerly flow today and rainfall chances remain below 50 percent so have included PROB30 groups for all TAF sites, mainly in the 19-01Z time frame. Fog chances remain too low to include in the morning TAF set at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend its axis westward across the Florida peninsula through early next week, with this feature maintaining a prevailing offshore wind flow across our local waters. Showers and thunderstorms will develop inland early each afternoon and will progress eastward across our local waters during the mid to late afternoon hours each day. Strong to severe storms will be possible late in the afternoon hours on Sunday and Monday, especially across the Georgia waters. Stronger storms will be capable of producing briefly strong wind gusts, frequent lightning strikes and torrential downpours. A frontal boundary will stall to the northwest of our area towards midweek, with Atlantic high pressure then expected to lift northward late next week. Rip Currents: Low Risk this weekend in the offshore flow and weak sea breeze along the coast with surf/breakers of 1-2 ft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 93 73 90 72 / 30 40 80 50 SSI 90 77 92 75 / 30 30 70 50 JAX 95 75 94 74 / 30 20 70 40 SGJ 95 75 94 74 / 40 20 70 30 GNV 94 74 94 73 / 30 10 60 20 OCF 94 73 92 73 / 20 10 60 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1233454 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:09 AM 07.Jun.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 158 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 202 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 - Hot and very humid conditions with scattered daily lightning storms into early next week. - Hazy skies this weekend due to the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). - A Moderate Risk for rip currents continues at area beaches through the weekend. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 202 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Today-Tonight... Upper level high pressure across Texas will build eastward through tonight. Surface high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will continue to shift southward towards the Bahamas into tonight, with the ridge axis remaining draped across central-south Florida. While forecasts show the overall SAL decreasing slightly across the Florida peninsula, east central Florida will remain in its influence through the day. This coupled with ridging through the layers will help keep rain and lightning storm chances below climatology, with increased confidence that the NBM PoPs are too high once again today (NBM is showing widespread 50- 70 percent PoPs). Lower than normal rain chances are supported by forecast soundings showing warmer temperatures aloft (-6 to -7 C at 500mb), and modest lapse rates. Thus, have continued to blend in CONSAll guidance to maintain a low to medium (20-40 percent) chance for rain and lightning storms this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to form along the coast as the east coast sea breeze pushes onshore this afternoon, as well as scattered storms pushing into the interior from the west (generally I-4 corridor northward) from the west coast sea breeze pushing into the local area. Additional showers and storms will then form along boundary interactions between the sea breezes and outflow boundaries through late afternoon, with any lingering activity pushing off the coast through the evening hours. Hi-rez guidance shows the highest coverage of showers and storms occurring across and north of the I-4 corridor into late afternoon. Main storm threats today will be wind gusts of 30-40 mph (but up to 50 mph will be possible if storms can take advantage of the drier air aloft), occasional to frequent lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures will be hot and humid once again today, with afternoon highs in the low 90s with peak heat indices of 100-103. Tonight, dry conditions are forecast across land areas, with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible along the Atlantic waters. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. Saturday-Sunday...(Modified Previous Discussion) The pattern generally continues through the weekend, with the surface ridge axis remaining south of the local area, though the ridge over the western Atlantic will elongate/drift eastward through the period. Slightly drier air across east central Florida , with forecast PW values around to 1.5" to 1.8", will be the main difference. This slightly drier air combined with continued warmer (~-7C) 500mb temperatures, will help to decrease overall rain chances. Thus, have continued to undercut the NBM each day. Have maintained a low to medium (20-30 percent on Saturday and 30-40 percent on Sunday) chance of rain and lightning storms through the weekend. Increasingly drier air in the mid to upper levels could support a few stronger wind gusts, should storms develop and be able to take advantage of it. Temperatures will creep higher through Sunday, with highs reaching the lower to mid-90s each day. Continued southwesterly flow will limit the inland progression of the east coast sea breeze. Heat indices remaining around 98-103 degrees. Monday-Thursday... (Modified Previous Discussion) The surface ridge continues to move eastward into the Atlantic next week, as the ridge axis drifts northward through the local area. Meanwhile, a series of weak upper-level shortwaves are forecast to pass through the Deep South. As the ridge axis moves northward, higher moisture will return to east central Florida, advected in by southerly flow. The east coast sea breeze will drift increasingly inland, with a collision over the interior. Higher shower and storm chances return, though likely not with enough coverage to support the 90% produced by the NBM. Thus, have gone with a more seasonable 50-60% each day next week. Temperatures will remain hot through at least Tuesday, before a more dominant east coast sea breeze develops into late week. Highs remaining in the lower to mid-90s early in the week, then upper 80s to lower 90s for the rest of the period. Heat indices 100-105 remain forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 202 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Today-Wednesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Generally favorable boating conditions through mid-week next week, as high pressure remains in control across the local area. The main threat will be scattered offshore- moving showers and storms in the late afternoon and evening hours each day. South to southwesterly flow will back southeasterly along the coast each afternoon and increase to 10-15 kts as the east coast sea breeze develops, but remains pinned close to the coast through early next week. Seas 1-3 ft. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 155 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Light W to SW flow through sunrise will increase around 10 knots with some gusts 15-17 knots developing in the afternoon. This will produce a small crosswind issue at MCO and also delay the sea breeze a bit from forming then reaching the coastal terminals. Have followed GFS LAMP and NBM MOS both showing no sea breeze at DAB. Other coastal terminals should see a SE wind shift by 20Z. Mainly dry conds forecast today with low prob of SHRA mainly assocd with the sea breeze near the coast late in the day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 93 73 94 72 / 30 10 40 10 MCO 93 74 94 74 / 30 10 30 10 MLB 92 74 91 74 / 30 10 30 20 VRB 92 72 92 74 / 30 20 20 10 LEE 93 75 92 74 / 30 10 30 10 SFB 94 74 94 74 / 30 10 30 10 ORL 93 76 94 75 / 30 10 30 10 FPR 92 72 91 73 / 30 20 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1233453 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 AM 07.Jun.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1254 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1246 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 - Major to Extreme risk of heat related impacts across portions of South Texas through the weekend. - Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms areawide next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 A mid- to upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature across South Texas this weekend, promoting strong subsidence that will limit vertical motion and significantly reduce the potential for convection. While an isolated shower or two cannot be completely ruled out this afternoon near the coast, chances remain very low (less than 15%). Additionally, the Saharan dust plume that arrived yesterday will further suppress rainfall and contribute to hazy conditions. Reduced visibilities of 5-6 miles are expected to persist throughout the day today. The ridge will also continue to support hot conditions across the region through early next week. Temperatures will run 3-8 degrees above normal, with 850 mb temperatures between 20-25 degC contributing to widespread afternoon highs in the triple digits west of the I-37 corridor and the 90s across the remainder of South Texas. South-southeasterly surface flow will continue to usher in low-level moisture, further elevating heat stress. Heat index values are forecast to reach 110-117 degF, leading to a Major to Extreme risk for heat related impacts. As for our risk today, a few isolated locations in portions of the Brush Country may briefly approach the threshold for a Heat Advisory. However, widespread criteria are not expected as the presence of the aforementioned Saharan dust may keep actual temperatures slightly lower than model projections. While I have opted to not issue an Advisory today, confidence is increasing for more widespread heat impacts on Sunday and Monday. Regardless of Advisory status/issuance, please continue to practice heat safety: stay hydrated, limit time outdoors, avoid strenuous activity during peak heating hours, and always check vehicles for children and pets! Heading into early next week, the upper ridge is forecast to shift westward, allowing weak mid-level disturbances to pass across the region. This shift in the upper-level pattern, coupled with rising moisture will lead to low-to-medium (20-60%) rain chances beginning late Tuesday through much of the next work week. Probabilities are highest across the Victoria Crossroads where moisture and lift will be more favorable, with more limited activity expected along the Rio Grande due to the close proximity of the retreating ridge. The highest probability of rainfall potential is forecast Wednesday. By late week, rain chances gradually taper off as the upper-trough slowly propagates eastward. Increased cloud cover and any rainfall that occurs throughout the week, will help moderate daytime temperatures slightly, with highs dropping into the 90s areawide Wednesday-Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 Generally VFR conditions expected through the TAF cycle. Haze will impact all terminals during the TAF cycle, but have only mentioned this for VCT as most locations will not have a noticeable decrease in visibility. MVFR ceilings are expected tonight, especially between 09Z-14Z. ALI is also expected to develop periods of MVFR visibility during the 09Z-14Z time frame. && .MARINE... Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) onshore breeze can be expected through next week. A plume of Saharan dust that arrived yesterday will result in hazy skies this weekend. Low to medium (30-60%) rain chances return Tuesday and will linger through much of the next work week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 94 79 94 80 / 0 10 0 0 Victoria 95 76 96 77 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 104 79 104 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 100 76 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 91 82 91 82 / 0 20 0 0 Cotulla 104 78 105 78 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 97 78 97 78 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 90 82 90 82 / 0 10 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233452 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 AM 07.Jun.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1251 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Tonight Through Saturday Night... The period opens with an upper level ridge of high pressure centered from the central Gulf, westward across the Rio Grande with an upper trof sliding east off the Mid-Atlantic coast. At the surface, high pressure over the central FL Peninsula was nosing westward and holds in this position, resulting in a warm, southwest flow to open up the weekend. Deep environmental moisture over the central Gulf coast (PWATs 1.6 to 1.8") persists and in combination with daytime instability, isolated to scattered showers and storms to be expected the remainder of the day. A look at the high resolution CAM`s, suggests we will be in a diurnal convective mode with any lingering daytime activity carrying over into evening will begin to weaken/dissipate. Late in the night, expect to see development off the coast and expect the same Saturday night. May have to watch for waterspouts near the coast considering the favorable environment. As the environment destabilizes Saturday and considering the deep layer and sufficient moisture profile, a return to slight chance to chance PoPs is expected through the course of the day over land areas. At the present time, the position of the Gulf upper ridge looks to mostly shield the forecast area from organized convection. The more active westerlies looks to be to our north where a series of mid- level impulses and the more focused ascent in the form of strong to perhaps severe convective complexes translate eastward over the Lower MS River Valley on Saturday. In this pattern, the better risk of severe storms is focused more from the Red River Valley of Texas/Oklahoma, eastward into the Carolinas. The southern extent of a slight risk of severe storms does skirt the far northern zones along and north of a line from Butler to Greenville AL Saturday. From there, a marginal risk of severe storms extends south to the I- 10 corridor. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected as we start the weekend. /10 Sunday Through Thursday... The active, unsettled pattern returns next week. Multiple waves of showers and storms are expected throughout the period, especially Monday through Thursday. The upper level ridge stretching across Mexico and into the Gulf this weekend will retreat (somewhat) next week as a broad upper level trough slides across much of the eastern half of the CONUS. Ridging should remain in control of most of the local area on Sunday, which should result in one more day with a diurnal convective pattern. Rain chances on Sunday afternoon will remain highest further inland where there will be less of an influence from the ridge. Numerous shortwaves pivot through the region in the westerly to northwesterly flow aloft as we roll through both Monday and Tuesday next week. While the trough begins to lift out of the region on Wednesday, a potent shortwave over Texas will begin to pivot into the Plains later in the week. Meanwhile, the surface high over the western Atlantic continues to extend into the Southeast and the eastern Gulf this weekend through next week. Southwesterly to westerly flow at the surface will continue to allow plenty of moisture to flow into the area in this pattern. Rain chances increase next week with numerous showers and storms each day. Rain chances remain high through the evening and overnight hours at times, but pinpointing exactly which days is difficult at this point given the parade of shortwaves sliding across the area. We will be able to refine the rain chances as we get closer in time. High POPs and increased cloud cover will lead to slightly cooler daytime high temperatures Monday through Wednesday. At this point, we are not overly concerned with a threat for severe storms next week. That being said, we will need to monitor for any clusters of storms (MCSs) diving out of the Plains early next week when we`re still in northwest flow aloft. Beach Forecast - The rip current risk remains MODERATE through Tuesday. The latest rip current probability guidance continues to trend downward as we roll into the middle to latter part of next week, so a LOW risk is possible Wednesday onward. 07/mb && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through 12z Sunday, along with light mainly southwesterly winds. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop along the coast late tonight into Saturday, so may need to add VCTS to the JKA/PNS TAFs. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 A light to moderate southwesterly flow will persist through early next week, and there will be an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity early next week. Overall, low impactful weather is anticipated for small craft operators outside of any storms where winds and seas will be locally higher. May have to also watch for some isolated AM waterspouts over the weekend. /10 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 75 93 73 90 73 88 71 88 / 0 50 60 70 70 80 70 80 Pensacola 79 91 77 88 77 88 76 87 / 10 50 70 70 70 70 70 70 Destin 80 90 78 88 78 88 78 88 / 20 50 70 70 70 70 70 70 Evergreen 74 93 71 89 70 88 69 88 / 10 70 70 80 70 90 60 80 Waynesboro 72 91 70 88 69 85 68 87 / 10 70 60 80 70 80 60 70 Camden 74 88 70 85 68 83 67 85 / 30 80 60 80 70 80 50 70 Crestview 74 93 72 90 72 89 71 89 / 10 70 70 80 70 90 60 90 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233450 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 AM 07.Jun.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 154 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure along the coast gradually moves further offshore tonight. A cold front approaches tonight and moves into the region Saturday, before lingering over the area Sunday. This will bring a return to chances of primarily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Drier weather returns on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 937 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon/evening. The highest coverage of storms, and the greatest SVR potential will be across the southern 1/2 of the area. The low that helped showers over-perform and produce up to 3+" of rain on the Eastern Shore this afternoon is moving off the Mid- Atlantic coast this evening. Meanwhile on the western half of the local area, there was another round of over-performing storms this afternoon and evening. Though a severe gust was not measured, there have been numerous reports of trees and powerlines down in the wake of these storms. MRMS QPE also shows a large rainfall footprint, with rainfall amounts of generally 1-2". These storms are associated with a shortwave and surface boundary across the Ohio River Valley. They developed to the northwest to west and moved into the local area and gradually moved SE. These storms fed off of the decent instability, while the steeper low-level lapse rates and roughly 30 kts of effective shear helped maintain these storms in both their longevity and strength. The last of the convection is in Bertie County and is moving out of our area, but has weakened considerably. There are a few isolated thunderstorms upstream from our piedmont counties once again, but the environment is not quite as favorable for strong to severe storms since the first round of storms used a lot of the instability and daytime heating has ceased. A few of these showers may potentially move in from the NW towards sunrise Saturday morning, and have this handled with 15-25% PoPs. Overnight, conditions will remain humid with both dew points and temperatures will both remain in the upper 60s. From previous discussion: The next shortwave slides across the region Saturday morning, which could produce some showers, mainly for VA and MD zones. However, a cold front will approach from the NNW later in the day and cross part of the area Saturday night. Temperatures rise well into the 80s to near 90F across the southern 1/2 of the FA, with upper 60s-70F dew points expected. This will allow for ample instability (1000- 1500 J/kg MLCAPE) along and south of I-64 despite meager mid- level lapse rates (5.5 to 6C/km), while the shortwave aloft/height falls will provide the necessary lift for convection to develop by 2-3 PM initially across central/eastern VA. Scattered to numerous tstms then move to the SE during the late aftn/evening before exiting the area late in the evening/overnight. Unsure how much in the way of storms form across northern areas (from LKU-SBY) where sfc heating won`t be as strong. But, have moderate confidence in at least scattered tstms along and south of I-64. One factor that could suppress convection on Saturday is if morning clouds/showers linger long enough to impact convective initiation during the aftn/evening. Though will note that most of the CAMs shows at least scattered convection during the later aftn/evening. With the instability in place combined with 30-40 kt of effective shear, strong to severe tstms are possible. The highest threat is south of I-64 where SPC has a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for severe wx, while the Marginal Risk has been maintained farther N. Still looks like primarily a damaging wind threat with storm mode likely becoming linear...although the initial cells may be able to produce small hail (not as confident in large hail given high freezing levels and only 5.5 to 6C/km mid- level lapse rates). One other factor, is that low level winds will be rather weak, and would tend to allow for seabreeze influences at the coast, bringing the potential for localized earlier storm initiation at the coast (confidence in this scenario remains low however). && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected again Sunday as a frontal boundary lingers across the region. - A few of the storms may be strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts being the main threat. The best chance of stronger storms is across SE VA and NE NC. Showers/storms decrease in coverage Sat evening, but as the next, stronger shortwave aloft (and more significant height falls) approaches from the W into Sunday morning, will show some additional shower chances moving back in from the W after 06Z. Lows Saturday night will mainly be in the mid 60s to around 70F. For Sunday, with an increasing SW flow aloft, the sfc front moves back north and likely stalls somewhere over the CWA as secondary low pressure develops and tracks from W-E along it. Another robust shortwave aloft is progged to quickly cross the region during the aftn- evening. A few showers are possible Sunday morning, with scattered-numerous tstms expected once again during the aftn/evening. Similar to Saturday, the main focus for severe wx will be along and south of that front (which likely means southern VA/NE NC). Instability will again be somewhat limited north of I-64 (and quite limited for the eastern shore due to onshore low level flow), where forecast highs are in the upper 70s-80F. The most likely timing for severe wx is from 2-10 PM Sunday. The mid level flow on Sunday will likely be a bit stronger than what it will be on Sat (especially S), with similar amounts of instability expected. SPC maintains a Slight Risk across SE VA/NE NC, with a Marginal Risk farther north. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat, but large hail can`t completely be ruled out, given somewhat more favorable mid level lapse rates (potentially 6 to 6.5 C/Km). There will also be the potential for locally heavy rainfall/localized flooding given PWATs remaining elevated and with the front nearly parallel to the mid level flow. Precip quickly exits after 10-11 PM Sun night once again with lows falling into the mid-upper 60s. By Monday, PW anomalies return to near normal with the front washing out across NC, so PoPs are mainly 20% or less, with the exception of 20-30% near the Albemarle Sound. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Unsettled conditions return Tuesday, with mostly dry weather expected by Wednesday. Scattered-numerous aftn/evening tstms are once again expected on Tuesday as moisture increases ahead of another (fairly strong) shortwave trough pushing through the lower Great Lakes. There will likely at least some sort of organized severe threat given that the mid- level flow will be 30-45 kt with a decent amount of instability to work with. By Wednesday, high pressure and drier conditions potentially return to the region as the trough axis moves offshore. Temperatures will be near normal Tue, then trending above normal later in the week with highs into the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 150 AM EDT Saturday... Lingering showers are diminishing across the region early this morning. Patchy MVFR conditions are noted in areas that received showers and storms on Friday. SBY and vicinity is seeing more widespread IFR conditions. Brief departures into LIFR are possible in these areas through roughly 12z. IFR/MVFR conditions will linger into mid morning for the MD Eastern Shore. Generally VFR this afternoon at all sites with potential for widespread showers and storms after 20z (later along the coast) as a weak front approaches the area. Low confidence in timing and placement of convection precludes anything more than PROB30 mention at this time. This front is expected to linger in vicinity of the region Sunday with a high chance of showers/tstms continuing. The latest guidance shows the front pushing S of the region Monday. Showers/storms return Tuesday aftn/evening, then a bit drier again Wednesday. && .MARINE... As of 315 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected through the weekend. - Potential for isolated thunderstorms across the waters Saturday and Sunday. Current weather analysis shows low pressure off the SE VA/NE NC coastline. This low pressure is relatively weak, which has allow winds to be sub-SCA at 5-10 kt, more easterly in the northern coastal waters and more northerly in the southern coastal waters. Waves and seas are around 1 ft in the bay and 2-3 ft in the coastal waters. As the low pressure moves further offshore, winds will shift to be out of the south on Saturday remaining 5-10 kt. The next weak system will approach the area Sunday afternoon, which will allow winds to slightly increase to 10-15 kt out of the SE. With the onshore flow, seas and waves will increase slightly to 3-4 ft and 1- 2 ft, respectively. Sub-SCA conditions is forecast to remain through early next week. Although sub-SCA conditions remain through the weekend, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible both Saturday and Sunday afternoon, which may cause locally elevated winds and seas. Moderate rip currents remain in the forecast for all beaches through this weekend as onshore flow will remain persistent through today and Sunday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1233449 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 AM 07.Jun.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Hot and dry conditions are expected to continue across deep south Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through Sunday night as mid-level ridging remains persistent and an upper level high pressure maintains northwest flow aloft as it regresses southwestward into Mexico. A tightened pressure gradient will continue breezy conditions this weekend, with southeasterly winds of around 5-15 mph at night and 10-20 mph, gusting to 15-25 mph, during the day, potentially up to 30 mph across the mid and lower RGV. Slightly above average high temperatures continue with mid to upper 80s along the coast and 90s to lower 100`s inland. In comparison to today, Friday, widespread highs in the lower 100`s are likely, generally west of I-69 C on both Saturday and Sunday. Factoring in the elevated dewpoints resulting from breezy onshore southeasterly winds, heat indices, or "real feel" temperatures, of at least 105- 110 degrees are anticipated across the entire inland County Warning Area (CWA) for Saturday and Sunday. There is the potential of Special Weather Statements (SPS`s) for portions of the RGV and northern ranchlands as afternoon heat indices could top 111 for several hours. Chances are lower for a Heat Advisory on Sunday, but not completely out of the question, depending on how forecast dewpoint and air temperatures trend. Therefore, much of the middle/lower RGV and eastern portions of the northern ranchlands (Brooks and Kenedy counties) are expected to experience a major (level 3/4) heat risk, including Zapata on Sunday, while the remainder of the CWA experiences a moderate (level 2/4) on Saturday and Sunday. Pockets of extreme (level 4/4) are possible on Sunday. Lows are expected to range between the mid to upper 70s across most inland areas while lower 80s are expected for portions of the lower RGV and SPI. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 The intense heat and breezy conditions described above are likely to continue into Monday and Tuesday as a mid-level high pressure passes eastward over deep south Texas. As upper level ridging moves offshore western Mexico into the middle of the week, a mid-level shortwave riding the ridge`s northern and eastern fringe is currently anticipated to bring much needed relief in heat as clouds build and chances of showers and thunderstorms increase to a low to medium (20-30%) chance on Tuesday afternoon and evening, ahead of a frontal boundary sagging southward into south-central Texas. Probabilities rise to a low to medium (20-50%) chance on Wednesday. The shortwave gradually lifts to the northeast into Thursday, but ridging will remain weakened, generating a low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms into Thursday through Saturday, but becoming more limited in probability and inland extent. There remains uncertainty in probability, timing and organization of convection as global model solutions diverge on the southward extent of the shortwave and frontal boundary as well as whether or not additional shortwaves pass over our region. High temperatures in the 90s and 100`s continue Monday and Tuesday, resulting in continued 105-110 heat indices as well as moderate to major heat risks, with pockets of extreme. Additional rounds of SPS`s and/or Heat Advisories remain likely. Relief is anticipated by Wednesday and onward, with high temperatures remaining in the 90s across inland deep south Texas and 80s at the beaches, yielding mainly a moderate heat risk for the remainder of the long term. Overnight lows are expected to range from the 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 MVFR to VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Light winds overnight will become breezy on Saturday before diminishing to moderate levels beginning around sunset. Generally partly cloudy and rain-free skies are also anticipated. && .MARINE... Issued at 1034 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 A tightened pressure gradient over the western Gulf is likely to continue to produce moderate to fresh southeasterly winds and moderate seas (3-4 feet) through Monday night, resulting in additional rounds of Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines. Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase to a low to medium (20-50%) chance next Tuesday into Saturday along with gentle to moderate southeasterly winds and moderate seas (3-4 feet) as a trough influences the lower Texas coastal waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 81 94 81 94 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 78 97 78 96 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 81 100 81 101 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 102 78 102 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 88 82 89 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 92 80 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ |
| #1233448 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 07.Jun.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 135 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An unsettled pattern will remain in place over the next several days as multiple fronts impact the Eastern Seaboard. This will bring several chances for rain and strong to severe thunderstorm activity into midweek next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 830PM Fri... This evening, a mid-level shortwave is approaching the area from the west. At the surface, a thunderstorm complex/MCV is associated with this mid level shortwave and currently pushing across the NC/VA border. We will continue to monitor ongoing thunderstorms as they approach the northwestern counties of the forecast area. The general trend is for these storms to weaken leaving some debris clouds over the area. This is forecast to increase cloud cover late tonight, keeping lows mild near 70. Given the latest guidance general thought is while we do see increased cloud cover, shower chances will be minimal at best so kept the area precip free tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/... As of 3:30 PM Friday... Key Messages: - Strong to severe storms will be possible late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening The first day of an active pattern looks to set up on Saturday. In the morning we may see some leftover debris cloud cover from a thunderstorm complex well to the west but general expectation is for skies to gradually clear through the morning hours as any leftover thunderstorms weaken well to our west. As this occurs, S`rly flow will set up, advecting in a warm and moist airmass across the area. At the same time, previously mentioned mid level shortwave continues to approach from the west with a surface cold front/trough also approaching from the west. With this warm and moist airmass in place as well as some insolation, most Hi-Res and global guidance suggests MLCAPE values will build to around 1500-2500 J/kg, while deep layer 0-6 km shear increases to 30-35kts. With the shortwave/front and trough producing ample lift, think shower and thunderstorms will quickly develop to our west and track E`wards through the afternoon with some of these storms becoming strong to severe in nature. There is a low end chance at some thunderstorm activity off the seabreeze but think the main show will come in from the west. Hi-Res CAMs and global guidance suggest a mix of discrete cells and linear clusters, with this activity potently merging into larger thunderstorm clusters later Sat evening. Latest soundings suggest DCAPE will maximize around 700-1100 J/kg as well and with some inverted V soundings noted, thinking is strongest storms will bring a threat for damaging wind gusts (60+ mph), and hail. SPC has the region in a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms on Saturday with the wind threat driving this slight risk. PW values remain around 1.75-2" and the thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall as well. Ongoing rain and thunderstorm activity should be pushing across the area through Sat evening. Main timing for the strongest storms would be 3-9PM west of Hwy 17 and from 5PM Sat to 12AM Sun along and east of Hwy 17. High temps get into the mid 80s to low 90s. The one caveat to the severe threat Sat would be if debris clouds from the morning stick around longer than expected and limit the amount of instability we see. However, this appears to have a low chance (less than 20% chance) of occuring. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 4 PM Friday... Key Messages: - Strong to severe storms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening. - Unsettled weather will continue through much of the rest of the long term. A mid level shortwave approaches the area Sunday bringing a threat of showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast. Could see some strong to potentially severe storms late Sunday and Sunday evening with moderate instability (SBCAPE values peak around 2000-2500+ J/Kg) and 0-6k bulk shear around 30-35 kt. PW values remain around 1.75-2" and the thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall as well. SPC has the region in a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms Sunday with damaging wind gusts the primary threat. Continued warm on Sunday with temps a couple of degrees cooler than Saturday. An upper low digs into the Great Lakes early next week with cyclonic flow developing across the region and a series of shortwave troughs advecting through the flow aloft keeping unsettled weather in the forecast for the rest of the long term. The airmass remains conditionally unstable with modest shear most days and could see a few strong storms, especially during peak heating. Persistent SW flow aloft will bring a descent tropical moisture feed into the region with PW values around 1.75-2", which is above the 90th percentile for this time of year, keeping a threat of heavy rainfall each day. Temps look to be near to a few degrees above normal early to middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Saturday night/... As of 1:30 AM Saturday...VFR flight cats with light southwesterly winds will persist through the overnight hours, increasing to 10-15 kt by tomorrow afternoon. The environment will be conducive to support strong to severe thunderstorms starting mid-afternoon and continuing into the evening. PROB30 groups have been added for all TAF sites to better highlight the timeframe of the greatest threat for gusty winds and hail. Conditions will improve from west to east tomorrow night with convection likely east of all TAF sites by the end of the period. LONG TERM /Saturday afternoon through Tuesday/... As of 415 AM Friday...An unsettled pattern will prevail through much of the long term keeping periods of showers and thunderstorms bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions across the region. There will also be the threat for late night/early morning fog each day as well. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/... As of 830 PM Saturday...Boating conditions will remain benign through tonight and then gradually deteriorate through the afternoon on Saturday. Widespread 5-15 kts W to SW`rly winds and 3-5 ft seas are noted this afternoon and should change little through Saturday morning. As we get into Sat afternoon a cold front/surface trough will approach from the west and tighten the pressure gradient allowing winds to become SW`rly across all waters and increase to 15-20 kts with a few gusts up near 25 kts at times. An increased thunderstorm threat will also occur Sat afternoon and evening as well with locally enhanced winds and seas possible within any thunderstorm that impacts our waters. LONG TERM /Saturday though Tuesday/... As of 415 AM Friday... A front approaches the waters Saturday but stalls inland from the coast before lifting to the north. SW winds around 10-20 kt expected to prevail through Monday with strongest winds during afternoon and evening hours when the diurnal thermal gradient is the tightest. Another cold front approached from the NW on Tuesday serving to tighten the gradient a bit more and could see low end SCA conditions develop, especially across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas generally around 3-5 ft through the long term with up to 6 ft seas across the southern/central waters on Tuesday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1233447 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:39 AM 07.Jun.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 128 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 126 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 High pressure surface and aloft ridging east/west across South Florida will continue through the weekend, acting as a stabilizing factor which is expected to cut down on the coverage of showers and thunderstorms. A narrow plume of Saharan dust trapped in the weak flow around the ridge will persist over South Florida, adding to the stability and drier air in the 850-500 mb layer. PoPs from the NBM have been running a bit too high the past couple of days given the aforementioned suppressing environment, and this appears to be the case again for both today and Sunday. As a result, we`re cutting PoPs down to 20-30% both afternoons, focused over the interior of the peninsula. Sunday may see a slightly more favorable environment for a couple more showers/thunderstorms due to an upper level trough across the SE U.S. weakening the ridge ever so slightly. With the relative lack of precipitation, temperatures this weekend will be quite warm during the afternoons. Highs both days will reach or exceed 90F almost everywhere, and as high as the mid 90s over the interior. Even with dewpoints not running excessively high for June, heat index values are still expected to be in the 100-105F range over most locations. Therefore, persons are urged to take actions to keep hydrated and avoid prolonged exposure to the outdoors. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 126 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 The ridge will persist into Monday but start to slowly lose it`s grip on South Florida. A northward nudge in the low level ridge will lead to a better-defined SE wind flow and introduce slightly higher moisture which will mark the beginning an upward trend in rain chances next week. Starting Tuesday, the western Atlantic subtropical high is forecast by a consensus of the models to expand northward and result in an increased low/mid level SE wind flow across Florida. This should also dislodge the Saharan dust northward over the northern half of the Florida peninsula. PoPs for Tuesday through Thursday pick back up to the 50-70% range, highest over the western interior sections and exhibiting a diurnal tendency for afternoon/evening in the interior and western areas, and night and morning for eastern areas including metro SE Florida. Models are suggesting some drier air trying to come back to the area by the end of next week in increasing easterly deep layer flow, but the timing and magnitude of this drier air is still very much in question, so for now we`re showing only a slight PoP decrease for Friday. Temperatures will begin next week on the hot side with 90s most areas, then as clouds and precipitation coverage increases starting Tuesday, highs decrease into the upper 80s-lower 90s for most of the remainder of next week. With higher dewpoints, however, daytime heat index values should still peak near 100F over many areas in between periods of precipitation. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 126 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Light and variable winds will increase out of the SE after 16z and will range between 10 and 15 kts through the afternoon. At KAPF, winds will increase to around 10 kts early this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. && .MARINE... Issued at 126 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 Good boating conditions will last through the weekend as the high pressure ridge over South Florida keeps winds 10 knots or less except near both coasts in the afternoon when the sea breeze will increase winds to near 15 knots at times. SE winds increase slightly next week as the ridge expands north, but still should not exceed 15 knots. Showers and thunderstorms will remain at a minimum over the Atlantic and Gulf waters this weekend, then increase beginning Monday and more so Tuesday and Wednesday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 126 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 Beach conditions are also expected to be good this weekend as precipitation should stay inland and winds remain light enough to preclude any notable rip current formation. The rip current risk may increase some by the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 90 77 90 79 / 20 10 20 10 West Kendall 92 74 92 76 / 20 10 20 10 Opa-Locka 93 77 92 79 / 20 10 20 10 Homestead 90 76 90 78 / 10 10 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 89 77 89 78 / 20 10 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 90 77 90 78 / 20 10 20 10 Pembroke Pines 94 79 94 80 / 20 10 20 10 West Palm Beach 91 76 91 77 / 20 10 20 10 Boca Raton 91 76 91 77 / 20 10 20 10 Naples 90 76 90 76 / 20 10 30 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233446 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 07.Jun.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 122 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An active weather pattern continues as multiple frontal boundaries and disturbances impact the region. A few storms may be severe this weekend, with damaging winds expected to be the primary hazard. A brief reprieve in heat then returns early next week in the wake of a strong cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Early this morning: Radar imagery shows dissipating upstream convection with nothing going on across southeast GA and southeast SC. This should continue through the rest of the night with no forcing available for nocturnal convection. Overall, it looks like an uneventful night with warm temperatures and no significant fog concerns. Current temperatures are in the upper 70s in most areas, and will be slow to fall through sunrise. Low to mid 70s are expected for lows, running a few degrees above normal for early June. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Saturday: As a shortwave moves eastward across the Midwest, an MCS will likely develop across the Southern Plains and begin to approach the Southeast. Across the Lowcountry, very humid conditions are expected as afternoon highs climb into the low 90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This will allow for heat indices to rise into the upper 90s to lower 100s, the warmest along and east of I-95. This is not uncommon for the Lowcountry, however its a good reminder to stay well hydrated and take breaks indoors as needed. This aforementioned MCS will move coincidentally with the shortwave into the Southeastern CONUS in the afternoon hours. Given the overall environmental conditions this system is moving into, severe thunderstorms are possible. Latest soundings Saturday afternoon have been displaying CAPE values well over 2000 J/kg, DCAPE values ~1000 J/kg, and 0-6 km bulk shear values ~30 kt. In addition to this, strong diabatic heating will result steep low-level lapse rates. The main threat would be from damaging wind gusts, with hail a lesser concern. The latest guidance shows the MCS potentially reaching our forecast area around 8pm Saturday, however confidence in the timing is quite low since it might not even make it this far southeast. If this system does end up holding together, convection could linger till shortly after midnight. Overnight lows will be mild and only dip into the low to mid 70s, with upper 70s along the beaches. Sunday: The forecast on Sunday is conditional on how Saturday pans out. If we only see scattered convection on Saturday, the airmass would be primed for more robust convection on Sunday. On the other hand, if a residual MCS moves through the area Saturday, the airmass would probably be pretty worked-over. Another potent shortwave is expected to move through Sunday and the environment could be fairly conducive to damaging winds if storms organize. Otherwise, expect another hot and humid day with heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s again. Overnight lows will be in the low/mid 70s. Monday: Expect an upper-lvl trough situated over the Great Lakes region to deepen throughout the day, while an associated cold front approaches the region and then stalls nearby. Showers and thunderstorms could develop in the afternoon along the sea breeze as conditions remain favorable for development. Temperatures will be a bit cooler than the last couple days with highs reaching into the upper 80s and heat indices remaining below 100. However, overnight lows remain mild. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The upper-lvl trough situated over the Great Lakes region should become more amplified across the Eastern CONUS on Tuesday and then taper off afterwards. The aforementioned cold front extending from this upper-lvl trough situated over the Great Lakes region could pass through sometime mid-week. This typical diurnal summertime pattern of scattered showers and thunderstorms developing along the seabreeze in the afternoon will continue. Expect temperatures to be somewhat cooler through the period in the wake of the cold front passing through. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions should prevail for most of the 06z TAF period at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV. Winds will be westerly for much of the day, with frequent gusts into the 17-20 knot range expected. While there could be an isolated shower or thunderstorm nearby in the afternoon, it appears the best chance for thunderstorms will come during the evening hours and in the last 6 hours or so of the 06z TAF period. Model guidance remains quite uncertain, but there is potential for clusters of storms to move in from the west this evening. The best chances are at KCHS and KJZI, and we have added VCTS starting at 01z. Extended Aviation Outlook: Typical summertime convection pattern will bring periodic flight restrictions through early next week. && .MARINE... Tonight: Expect southwest/west winds ranging between 10-15 kt to return across the waters overnight between low pressure exiting further to the north-northeast and high pressure extending across the western Atlantic. Seas will generally range between 2-3 ft. Saturday through Tuesday: Expect south-westerly winds to prevail throughout the period, with speeds generally 10 to 15 kt. It could become a bit gusty on Saturday and Sunday afternoon with gusts up to 20 to 23 kt possible with the sea breeze pushing inland (gusts will be strongest across the Charleston Harbor). SCAs are not needed at this time for the Harbor, however this will be continued to be monitored. This south- easterly swell will begin to taper off and seas will range from 2 to 3 ft, with some 4 footers in the outer Georgia waters. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 7: KCHS: 75/2021 KCXM: 79/2021 June 8: KCHS: 76/1980 KCXM: 78/2021 KSAV: 79/1881 June 9: KCHS: 77/1978 KSAV: 77/1877 June 11: KCHS: 76/2020 KSAV: 76/2010 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1233445 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:30 AM 07.Jun.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 124 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 331 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Diurnally driven scattered thunderstorms will continue until around sunset this evening. There is more DCAPE compared to yesterday, so gusty winds will be possible. Axis of PWAT around 2.0 inches near the I-10 corridor, where torrential downpours may lead to minor urban and poor drainage, with a low probability of flash flooding. Patchy fog will be possible again around sunrise on Saturday. Expect a repeat on Saturday, but with stronger mid-level winds north of I-10, there is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe weather during the afternoon and evening. The main threats are isolated damaging wind gusts, in addition to frequently lightning and heavy downpours. A high risk of rip currents continues on Saturday at the Emerald Coast beaches. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday night through Sunday night) Issued at 331 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Another round of showers and storms is expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Temperatures are forecast to be very summer-like with lows in the lower to middle 70s both Saturday and Sunday nights and highs in the lower 90s Sunday afternoon. A few of the storms on Sunday could be on the strong to severe side with locally damaging wind gusts the greatest concern. Also, elevated precipitable water values (PWATs) of 1.7" to 2.0" remains localized flooding concerns stick around through the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 331 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Yet another round of showers and thunderstorm is anticipated Monday into Monday night as the storm tracks shifts south into our region. This will lead to the potential for additional strong to severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday evening as a vigorous H5 shortwave rolls along the northern Gulf coast. Deep layer shear of around 30 knots means there is the potential for the cluster of showers and storms to make it into our region and beyond. Rain chances remain elevated the rest of the week thanks to an H5 trough over the eastern third of the country keeping us in a continued muggy environment. PWATs are forecast to remain in the 1.7" to 2.0" range, or the upper quartile for mid-June. Have elected to keep scattered to numerous showers and storms in the forecast throughout the extended period. Summer-like temperatures continue with highs in the lower to middle 90s and lows in the lower to middle 70s each day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 122 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 Patchy areas of MVFR to LIFR ceilings are possible around 10-13z this morning before conditions quickly return to VFR with afternoon heating. Light westerly winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect area terminals from 16-00z this afternoon bringing occasional MVFR visibilities in heavier showers/storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 331 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 A surface high sprawling across the southwestern Atlantic and eastern Gulf will continue to bring light to moderate southwesterly winds to our waters through the weekend. Seas will generally run between 2 to 3 feet. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast through the weekend along with the potential for a morning waterspout or two just off the coast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 331 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 A wet pattern remains in place with relatively high minimum afternoon humidities and light winds. Only concerns through the next few days will be dispersions on the higher side and gusty/erratic winds in the vicinity of any thunderstorm activity. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 331 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Locally heavy rain remains possible within any of the showers or storms thanks to precipitable water values (PWATs) between 1.7" to 2.0", or near the 90th percentile for early-mid June. 3hr Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) remains between 2.5" to 3.5" in the more urban areas and 3" to 5.5" in our more rural locations. These values are forecast to gradually decrease the next few days thanks to daily rain chances. Nuisance flooding of urban and poor drainage areas are the biggest concern, especially as we see the soil continue to moisten with each round of showers and storms. Fortunately, area rivers and streams remain in good shape with gradual rises possible as more and more rain falls across the region. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 92 75 92 75 / 60 10 70 50 Panama City 89 78 88 77 / 40 20 60 70 Dothan 93 75 92 73 / 50 20 80 70 Albany 93 75 92 71 / 50 20 80 70 Valdosta 93 75 92 73 / 40 20 70 50 Cross City 91 73 89 73 / 30 10 60 40 Apalachicola 87 78 86 77 / 30 20 60 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233444 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 AM 07.Jun.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 119 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 726 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf A few exiting showers will impact coastal northeast Florida over the next hour or so, then it will be dry through the night. Calm winds and enhanced moisture will allow for patchy fog formation near I-75 tonight, clearing up around sunrise. Low temperatures will be mild in the lower 70s inland and mid 70s along the coast. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Afternoon surface analysis depicts weak low pressure (1013 millibars) that is beginning to accelerate northeastward and away from North Carolina`s Outer Banks, while Atlantic high pressure (1023 millibars) was centered near Bermuda. Otherwise, a wavy frontal boundary extends from the Southern Plains east- northeastward through the Ohio Valley. Aloft...ridging aloft centered over Deep South Texas was creating northwesterly flow across our area. This ridge was steering a potent shortwave trough eastward across the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valley. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that PWAT values have fallen to the 1.7 - 1.9 inch range, which is above climatology for early June. Brisk westerly low level flow was propelling widely scattered convection eastward across our region, with a few stronger storms earlier along the St. Johns River and coastal St. Johns County producing brief wind gusts of 30-40 mph. Recent convection developing over the Suwannee Valley was creating similar downburst gusts. Outside of this convective activity, temperatures have climbed to the upper 80s and lower 90s, with heat index values approaching 100 at 19Z. && .NEAR TERM... (through Tonight)... Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing through sunset will be steered eastward by low and mid level westerly flow. A few storms will be pulse and possibly become strong as convection interacts with mesoscale boundaries. Stronger storms this afternoon will be capable of producing downburst gusts of 40-50 mph, along with frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and briefly heavy downpours. Activity will mostly push offshore of the Atlantic coast by sunset, but northwesterly flow aloft could steer a few storms over inland southeast GA back towards the I-10 and I-95 corridors early this evening. Any lingering convection early this evening will dissipate before midnight, with low level westerly flow possibly bringing another round of low stratus ceilings eastward from the FL Big Bend and Nature Coast across the Suwannee Valley during the overnight and predawn hours, with these lower cloud ceilings possibly approaching U.S. Highway 301 towards sunrise. Lows tonight will only fall to the lower 70s inland, while a light offshore breeze keeps coastal locations in the mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Southwesterly flow continues through the weekend, leading to the Gulf breeze to move well inland each day. Gulf moisture and diurnal heating will help to destabilize the local environment and increase the chances of strong to severe storms to develop during the afternoon hours on Saturday and Sunday along the Gulf breeze. The SPC has pulled back on the Slight risk over the Altamaha River Basin on Saturday, as the chances of shortwaves reaching into SE GA has lessened. Come Sunday, some shortwaves along the mid-level westerly flow may allow for some severe storms to develop as the Gulf breeze moves through during the afternoon to evening hours, but earlier morning showers and storms may keep later storms below severe levels. The main thunderstorm hazards each day will be locally heavy rainfall, especially where cell mergers occur, as well as gusty downburst winds. Daytime highs will be in the low/mid 90s on Saturday and Sunday. Overnight lows dip into the upper 60s and lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 The wet weather will remain over the area during the upcoming week as the southwesterly flow persists into midweek, allowing for gulf moisture to continue to filter into the area. With the Gulf breeze expected to move well inland with the southwesterly flow, the Atlantic breeze will remain pinned along the coast. Passing shortwaves along the northern locations of SE GA will likely see higher potential for severe storms. By midweek, the southwesterly flow shifts to become southerly then southeasterly as the Bermuda High begins to strengthen and stretch over the region. The shift in flow will allow for the Atlantic breeze to move further inland. Highs will continue in the lower/mid 90s as the westerly flow continues, but cooler temperatures along the Atlantic coast will begin to develop as the east coast breeze begins to make its way towards inland locations by midweek. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 114 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 VFR with high clouds tonight and low chances of afternoon storms in westerly flow today and rainfall chances remain below 50 percent so have included PROB30 groups for all TAF sites, mainly in the 19-01Z time frame. Fog chances remain too low to include in the morning TAF set at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend its axis westward across the Florida peninsula through early next week, with this feature maintaining a prevailing offshore wind flow across our local waters. An evening wind surge on Saturday may bring speeds up to Caution levels offshore. Showers and thunderstorms will develop inland early each afternoon and will progress eastward across our local waters during the mid to late afternoon hours each day. Strong to severe storms will be possible late in the afternoon hours this weekend and early next week, especially across the Georgia waters. Stronger storms will be capable of producing briefly strong wind gusts, frequent lightning strikes and torrential downpours. A frontal boundary will stall to the northwest of our area towards midweek, with Atlantic high pressure then expected to lift northward late next week. Seas of 2 to 3 feet will prevail throughout our local waters during the next several days. Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds will likely result in a low rip current risk at area beaches through Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1214 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Breezy westerly surface and transport winds will prevail during the daylight hours each day through Sunday. These breezy winds will create good daytime dispersion values this afternoon, with pockets of marginally high values expected along the I-95 and U.S. Highway 17 corridors in northeast and north central FL. Elevated mixing heights this weekend will create areas of high daytime dispersion values. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 73 90 71 88 / 40 70 60 80 SSI 77 91 76 90 / 30 60 60 80 JAX 75 94 74 93 / 20 60 40 70 SGJ 75 94 74 93 / 20 50 30 70 GNV 74 93 73 93 / 10 50 20 60 OCF 73 92 73 92 / 10 50 20 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1233443 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:15 AM 07.Jun.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1158 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Mid-level ridge will continue to be the most dominant feature for the rest of today into Saturday. Although the ridge will limit our rain activity for much of Southeast TX, we could still see some isolated showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly along the coastal areas and for locations near the Galveston Bay region as we continue to heat up. Persistent onshore flow will continue to supply moisture from the Gulf and lead to Heat indices in the lower 100s this afternoon. Although these values are not yet within the Heat Advisory criteria, these temperatures can still lead to heat-related illnesses or injuries. Thus, continue to practice heat safety. If outdoors, stay hydrated, take plenty of breaks, limit the time spent outdoors, limit sun exposure, and wear appropriate clothing. Never leave children and pets unattended in vehicles. For tonight, we will start off with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. As the night progresses, skies will become partly cloudy to cloudy. We may see some streamer showers during the overnight to early morning hours, mainly over the Gulf waters and the coastal locations, but accumulations will be minimal. Unfortunately, we wont have much relief from the warm and humid feels tonight, as low temperatures only dip into the mid to upper 70s for much of the area while dewpoints range a couple of degrees lower than the lows. Conditions heat up a little more on Saturday, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s for areas north of I-10, the lower to mid 90s for areas along and south of I-10, and the upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast. Heat indices are expected to range between 102- 106 deg F and can once again pose a heath risk for vulnerable populations as well as for those planning to spend long periods of time outdoors. The one good thing about Saturday is that we can anticipate somewhat breezy conditions as the pressure gradient tightens and a 25-30KT low level jet develops overhead. This will help a bit, however, make sure you are taking the necessary precautions during your time outdoors. Cotto && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1157 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Mid-upper ridging that brought us the hot conditions will gradually be suppressed to the s/sw as a larger trof dips further swd into the Midwest/Great Lakes/ MS Valley area early next week. Shower and tstm chances will gradually increase heading into the early and midweek time period due to the combination of prevailing moist onshore flow, less subsidence, daytime heating, and the ability for some intermittent upper disturbances and/or outflows from storms to our n/nw to make their way into the area. And with the increased cloud cover and rain chances should lead to temps lowering a bit closer to seasonable norms. During the mid and late work week, we should see another mid level trof take shape across West Texas and slowly track ene across the Southern Plains which should allow chances for daily showers/tstms to continue. 47 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1157 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Most locations are starting out with VFR conditions, though there are a few spots reporting 4-6sm vsbys in haze. Anticipate that we`ll see some MVFR cigs take shape across parts of the area later tonight into mid morning Saturday...with better chances more prevalent generally north of the metro area. Otherwise, look for VFR conditions along with some haze conditions during the day. Though a very short lived, an isolated shra or two can`t completely be ruled out, they`re not worth mentioning in the TAFs. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1157 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Fairly typical summer time pattern is anticipated for the next several days with a prevailing onshore flow. Speeds should typically be highest (14-17kt) at night in the Gulf and during the afternoon/evening in the bays. Seas will mostly be in the 3-5ft range. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 76 95 76 97 / 10 10 10 0 Houston (IAH) 78 95 78 97 / 10 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 82 89 82 88 / 20 20 20 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233441 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 AM 07.Jun.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1150 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Isolated to widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms should dissipate around sunset as instability associated with diurnal heating winds down. With a warm and humid airmass in place, overnight lows will remain above normal, only falling into the mid to upper 70s most places. Saturday will be very similar to today as upper level high pressure remains in place, keeping showers and storms fairly limited in coverage. Afternoon highs will rise into the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints generally in the mid 70s across the region will result in afternoon heat index values rising into the 100 to 105 degree range. While this is shy of our local heat advisory criteria, these will be the warmest heat index values of the warm season so far and those with outdoor plans should take precautions to protect themselves from heat-related illness by taking breaks in the shade, staying hydrated, and wearing light-weight and loose-fitting clothes. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday night) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 No changes in the long term thinking and only minor tweaks made to the forecast compared to previous package. Previous long term discussion follows. Relief is coming in the form of sh/ts possibly as early as Sunday afternoon or evening as a trough axis slowly moves into the gulf south. There could be some storms with this that become strong or severe in NW flow. The axis will orient NW to SE into our area for the first of the week which will allow developing systems to the west to ride this axis into the area by mid week if it stalls over us. The question has been where is this boundary going to stall and trends now give some evidence to this. The main trough axis looks to stall just north of the area but the good thing is that storms don`t just develop in a linear fashion adhering to this boundary. Instead, storms are helped to develop by this boundary then move along and away from it, and this is what brings some of these storms into our area at first. The boundary should then slowly progress to near the gulf coast Tue and stall again Wed before washing out. This farther movement may be from outflows from storms as they move south and SE. The trough simply breaks the cap over the area for several days past Sunday. This allows the strong sfc variables to be released upward giving us a better chance of sh/ts. The only bad thing is that each day will bring with it the probability of a few storms misbehaving. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Mainly VFR conditions will persist through the evening and much of the forecast period. A few isolated to scattered showers and storms could provide brief impacts to terminals again Saturday afternoon and additional SHRA or TSRA lines could be added in future updates as confidence increases on timing and location of impacts. && .MARINE... Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Winds will vary between south and southwest through the weekend and into the first part of the work week. As surface high pressure shifts eastward, winds will become more southeasterly by Wednesday. Gradient flow will generally be around 10 kts. Regarding shower and thunderstorm activity, rain chances will generally remain low for the next couple days, but will begin to increase Sunday with scattered to numerous showers and storms each day Monday through Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 73 93 74 91 / 10 20 0 50 BTR 76 93 77 93 / 0 20 0 50 ASD 75 93 75 93 / 10 20 0 40 MSY 78 93 78 94 / 10 20 0 50 GPT 76 90 77 92 / 10 20 0 50 PQL 75 91 75 91 / 10 20 10 50 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
