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| #1253488 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:09 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1057 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Light to gentle breezes will veer from northerlies to north to northeasterlies. Freshening breezes are expected Thursday and Friday with a peak of moderate easterly breezes. -The next opportunity for an unsettled pattern looks to occur sometime over the Sunday and Monday timeframe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1058 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 The Florida Keys remain mostly quiet on this December morning. A front is slowly meandering into our waters and can be seen on GOES-19 Satelitte imagery just north of the island chain. Temperatures along the island chain are currently creeping into the upper 70s. Across the Reef, winds are northerly at 5 to 10 knots. As the front passes through the Keys, breezes will slightly pick up to light to gentle, but significant temperature differences are not expected over the next few days. This morning`s 12z sounding revealed dry air aloft therefore shower activity is not expected at this time. The current forecast is on track and no updates were needed at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1058 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, a cold frontal system extending from Cape Hatteras to the middle of the Gulf will meander across the Florida Keys today and tonight. Breezes will veer northeasterly and freshen tonight and Thursday. High pressure building over the Ohio Valley will cause winds to veer southeasterly and slacken over the weekend. Another frontal passage is possible towards the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1058 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Light and variable winds will become north to northeast this afternoon at near 5 knots. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1253487 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:27 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1016 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure prevails today through Thursday bringing dry and cool weather for the middle of the week. A low pressure system tracks across the region Friday into Friday night with a potential for light snow or a light wintry mix across portions of the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1015 AM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - Below average temperatures with sunny and dry conditions are expected today. - Mostly clear and cold tonight. A ~984mb low pressure was centered E of Cape Cod early this morning with a trailing cold front now well offshore. Meanwhile, a ~1023mb high pressure was centered over the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South. Temperatures as of 10 AM ranged from the upper 30s to around 40F. High pressure continues to build in from the W today. Mostly sunny and cool today with high temperatures in the mid 40s, which are ~10F below seasonal averages. The wind is expected to diminish this afternoon as the high moves into the area. High pressure remains centered in vicinity of the coast tonight. Mostly clear, calm, and chilly with lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - Dry weather continues Thursday and Thursday night. - There is increasing potential for light snow and a wintry mix Friday into Friday night. High pressure slides offshore Thursday resulting in moderating temperatures, but still slightly below seasonal averages. Forecast highs range from the mid/upper 40s N to the lower 50s S with increasing cirrus clouds. A dry cold front drops through the area later Thursday afternoon and evening with 1028-1030mb high pressure building to the N Thursday night into early Friday. Low temperatures once again drop into the mid 20s to lower 30s, with lower 20s possible across the N if enough clearing occurs. The airmass behind this front is rather cold locally for the first week of December, and dry with dewpoints potentially dropping to 15-20F across the NW by early Friday. High pressure gradually retreats to the NE Friday with the cold front becoming stationary well S of the local area. The flow aloft will generally be zonal to begin the day, but will amplify to some extent as a trough digs into the upper Midwest. A powerful upper jet upwards of 175kt is progged to extend from the northern Mid-Atlantic to southern New England. A wave of low pressure is expected to develop along the stationary front Friday beneath the RRQ of the upper jet with some assistance from a sheared shortwave trough from 700-500mb. There is increasing potential for a period of snow transitioning to a wintry mix or rain Friday across most of the area, remaining wintry longer to the NW, and mainly rain for far SE VA and most of NE NC. The 00z/03 EPS and EC AIFS each depict 50-80% of >1" of snow for most of the area (assuming a 10:1 ratio and idealized accumulation), with probs dropping sharply for >3". The 00z/03 GEFS remains lower, but has trended up to 30-50% through 12z/7 AM Saturday. As moisture shallows Friday night precipitation could change to light freezing rain from central VA to the Piedmont where a light ice accretion is possible. Temperatures will potentially be quite cold for early December during the day Friday. The EPS/GEFS show 2m temperatures roughly 15- 20F below average at 18z Friday (especially inland), which could result in high temperatures struggling to get out of the lower 30s, with some colder guidance showing temperatures remaining in the upper 20s over the Piedmont. Below average, but not as cold for far SE VA and coastal NE NC. Lows Friday night area forecast to range from the mid/upper 20s NW to the upper 30s/around 40F SE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 315 AM EST Wednesday... - Below average temperatures continue this weekend and early next week. - Mainly dry aside from a secondary low pressure system potentially clipping the coast Sunday night and early Monday. The 00z/03 EPS and GEFS show PW values falling below normal Saturday into Sunday, so generally dry conditions are favored despite the NBM trying to hold on to low PoPs Saturday into Saturday night. An upper trough and cold front push across the region Sunday night into early Monday with a wave of low pressure potentially developing offshore of the Southeast coast. Most guidance is generally dry locally, with the more amplified 00z/03 GFS being an outlier at this time. Below normal temperatures are favored this weekend into early next week, with the aforementioned cold front reinforcing colder air Monday and Tuesday. A moderating trend toward seasonal averages in possible by the middle of next week with dry conditions favored. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 600 AM EST Wednesday... High pressure is building in from the W as of 12z in the wake of low pressure and a cold front. Primarily VFR under a mostly clear sky with a NW wind of 8-12kt, with occasional gusts approaching 20kt. However, there are some bands of SC along the coast with patchy MVFR cigs ~3kft. VFR conditions are expected to prevail today into tonight, aside from occasional BKN MVFR cigs at ORF through ~15z, with generally a clear/sunny sky. The wind will remain NW 8-12kt through mid-aftn, before diminishing and shifting to W/SW. By tonight, the wind will be calm to very light. VFR conditions continue Thursday as high pressure remains over the region. A low pressure system will bring the potential for degraded flight conditions Friday into Friday night with potentially snow turning to a wintry mix for the northern terminals and mainly rain for the southeastern terminals. Drier conditions return by Saturday and Sunday. && .MARINE... As of 230 AM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect into the morning hours as winds begin to subside. - Another round of elevated winds is expected late Thursday into Friday. Early morning surface analysis shows the low pressure system that developed off our coast yesterday now located just offshore of Cape Cod with its trailing cold front also offshore. The departure of this system allowed for colder, drier air to rush into our local area causing increased northwesterly winds. As of this writing, winds continue to come down a bit, but are still well within SCA criteria at 18-24kt with gusts up to 25-30kt. Waves in the Bay are 2- 4ft with seas reaching 4-6ft, with some 7-8ft across the south. Thus, the SCAs will remain in place for the rivers and Sound until 7am, the Bay until 10am, and the coastal waters until noon due to lingering seas of 5+ ft. High pressure will build in overhead this morning allowing winds to continue to decrease and become 10kt or less this afternoon and into the overnight hours. Seas and waves will decrease as well to 2-4ft and 1-2ft respectively. A dry cold front will push through the Mid-Atlantic during the day on Thursday turning winds out of the north/northwest and increasing speeds once again. Guidance indicates SCAs will be likely for the Bay Thursday afternoon into the early overnight hours of Friday. Confidence in SCA wind speeds is less for the coastal waters, though some 5ft seas may build back in. Some variability in model solutions remains regarding the next weather system on Friday. Another surface low may develop off the coast, which could have impacts to our waters depending on the track/timing. Stay tuned to future forecast updates for more info. We may stay in a more active weather pattern for the weekend and beyond as well. This could bring more frequent periods of elevated winds. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ |
| #1253486 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:09 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1003 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure will return through Thursday. A weak backdoor cold front will drop through late Thursday. Waves of low pressure will develop along this lingering front, bringing clouds and periods of rain from Friday into the weekend. Mostly dry conditions may return early next week. && .UPDATE... Updates have been made to the forecast to account for a thin but very persistent canopy of clouds across the Pee Dee area and along the Cape Fear coast. 12z NAM forecast soundings show a layer of moisture less than one thousand feet thick perched at the top of the shallow mixed layer and topped off by a strong and very dry subsidence inversion aloft. So far the clouds are only having minor impacts on temperatures, but this will need to be monitored closely throughout the day, especially where clouds may remain the most stubborn from Kingstree and Florence to Darlington and Hartsville. Other updates were minor. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS: *Hazards: Dense fog possible tonight *Rain Chances: None *Temps: Below normal *Confidence: Moderate to High Details: High pressure will prevail with dry weather and below normal temperatures expected. Main concern is the risk for dense fog tonight given pretty decent radiational cooling conditions and the wet ground from recent rainfall, although it could just be shallow and not cause significant visibility reductions. Highs today mainly around 50 degrees with sub-freezing temperatures into the upper 20s likely tonight away from the milder coastal areas. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Dry and slightly warmer Thursday as high clouds start to build in through the day ahead of moisture from the SW. A weak backdoor front will drop through Thursday night and the increased flow between high pressure over the Midwestern states and low pressure near the Gulf will push more moisture to the east over our area. This will make light rain possible late Thursday night. Rain chances will continue to expand over the area from west to east through Friday and Friday night due to influence from a nearby low off the SE coast. Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.5" are possible but there is still uncertainty due to the nature of the frontal system. Highs will drop Thursday to Friday with the frontal passage by ~10 degrees, and lows will remain in the mid to upper 30s. The colder areas to our north could see wintry precip but for now we remain firmly in rain territory. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Solid rain chances could linger through Saturday and Saturday night as the frontal system continues offshore but a stalled front remains nearby. Rain chances should start to really abate through Sunday before another, drier frontal passage drops through Monday with low rain chances mostly near the coast and offshore. Dry conditions should return for Tuesday and Wednesday though there are hints that the pattern may become wet again towards the end of the period. The coldest night looks to be Monday night but otherwise highs will be in or near the 50s so not much change there. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 12Z TAFs: Moderate to high confidence thru about 06Z, then low to moderate confidence. Despite surface high pressure building in, mid-level energy will be moving through keeping a few patches of low clouds around the area today (mainly SE of KLBT thru about 00Z) with a very low risk for MVFR cigs, and even lower but non-zero risk for IFR cigs. Decent radiational cooling conditions tonight along with the lingering low-level moisture and wet ground from recent rainfall should support fog starting around 06Z, initially at KLBT and then spreading SE toward the coast. LIFR/VLIFR vsbys are possible, although the fog may be shallow enough in nature to not impact vsbys too much so confidence is lower regarding impacts. Thus, will only introduce MVFR vsbys for now. Extended Outlook...VFR to prevail through Thursday night outside of possible dense fog late tonight. Another storm system will likely bring restrictions starting as early as Friday but more likely starting Friday night. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...High confidence this period. High pressure will build into the area with improving marine conditions as the pressure gradient slackens. Thursday through Monday...Offshore flow ~10 kts will become NE ~15 kts as a cold front pushes through Thursday night/Friday morning. N to NE winds will then linger through the rest of the period 10-15 kts with in increase to 15-20 kts Monday due to a passing frontal system. Seas 2-3 ft with 4 footers possible Monday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1253484 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:18 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 911 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Patchy to Areas of Frost Across Inland Southeast GA Late Tonight - Severe to Extreme Drought Continues for Inland Areas - Potential for Locally Heavy Rainfall Across Southeast GA Friday and Saturday. Isolated Thunderstorms Possible Area- Wide. - Moderate Rip Current Risk at All Area Beaches && .UPDATE... Mid-morning surface analysis depicts high pressure (1023 millibars) building over the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys in the wake of a cold front that was pushing across south FL. Aloft...brisk zonal flow prevails locally, as our area was between flat ridging positioned over Cuba and the Bahamas and troughing that was digging southeastward from the Upper Midwest. A cooler and drier air mass was advecting into our area in the wake of last evening`s frontal passage, with the morning sounding at Jacksonville revealing a stout 7 degrees Celsius temperature inversion based around 900 millibars (around 3,500 feet), where a layer of broken stratocumulus clouds prevailed in a cold air advection regime across our area. Temperatures at 14Z ranged from the mid 40s for locations north and west of Waycross in interior southeast GA to the upper 50s across north central FL. Dewpoints ranged from the upper 30s and lower 40s across inland southeast GA to the mid 50s in north central FL. High pressure building into the southeastern states this afternoon will continue to advect a cooler and drier air mass into our region. The seasonal low sun angle will result in moisture remaining trapped around the aforementioned stout subsidence inversion until early this afternoon, with stratocumulus cloud cover then dissipating during the mid to late afternoon hours. Lingering cloud cover and cold air advection will keep highs in the 50s across most of southeast GA today, with 60s expected for northeast FL and upper 60s / near 70 for north central FL. Brisk zonal flow aloft will continue tonight, advecting a veil of mostly thin, high altitude cirrus across our skies. Winds will decouple early this evening for inland locations as high pressure settles over the southeastern states. Patchy to areas of frost formation are expected for inland locations in southeast GA after midnight, where lows will fall to the mid and upper 30s. Lows elsewhere will fall to the upper 30s for inland locations along I-10 and 40s elsewhere, except around 50 along the northeast FL coast, where a light north northwesterly breeze will continue overnight. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... By Thursday, an area of low pressure near the Gulf Coast will begin lifting a warm front across Florida. Moisture will gradually increase from the southwest, most notably across north of I-10 will 700-400 mb WSW flow starts to prime the atmosphere. Skies will trend from mostly sunny in the morning to mostly cloudy by afternoon especially across SE Georgia and Suwannee Valley. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than Wednesday, with highs in the mid 60s across SE GA and the upper 60s to lower 70s across Northeast FL. Dry conditions will persist most of the day, though a few light showers or sprinkles may develop over the far interior SE GA during the afternoon continuing into the nocturnal hours. Thursday night, cloud cover will continue to increase as deep moisture streams northward ahead of the approaching Gulf System. Lows will be warmer, generally in mid 40s for inland SE GA and low to mid 50s across NE FL. Northeast winds will remain around 5 to 10 mph. Shower chances will rise overnight, especially SE GA and the Suwannee Valley where POPS range 25 to 45 percent, with likely POPS near the Ocmulgee River Basin. By Friday morning, the warm front will lift north toward I-10 corridor and is expected to reach near Waycross by early Friday evening. This will bring increasing moisture and warmer temperatures. Highs will reach the mid 70s to near 80 degrees across much of NE and N Central FL, while SE GA will see mid 60s to lower 70s. Showers will embedded thunderstorms will become more widespread, especially during the afternoon and evening hours, with highest coverage across SE GA, the Suwannee Valley, and areas north of I-10. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook indicates a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall across of SE GA. The cold front will press and then push through SE GA late Friday morning and stall near the I-10 corridor by daybreak Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The cold front will finally push south of the area by late Saturday night into Sunday morning as the associated low lifts northeastward. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected through Saturday afternoon and evening. Rain chances will gradually decrease Saturday night, though scattered showers are anticipated into Sunday. With southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the front on Saturday, deep Gulf moisture transport will support periods of heavy rainfall with some guidance suggesting 2 to 4 inches across portions of Southeast Georgia. The marginal risk for excessive rainfall shifts southward Saturday to include most of SE GA and NE FL as the front progresses through the region. From Sunday night through Tuesday, a drier and colder airmass will settle over the area under building high pressure. Temperatures will fall below normal for early December, with highs in the lower to mid 60s and overnight lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Guidance also suggest another, albeit drier, reinforcing front boundary Monday, supporting cool and dry conditions with good model agreement. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... MVFR ceilings of 1,500 - 3,000 feet will prevail at the regional terminals this morning through early this afternoon, with ceilings then lifting to VFR by 18Z at the Duval County terminals and SSI and by 20Z at GNV and SGJ. Periods of MVFR visibilities may develop after 06Z Thursday at VQQ, but confidence was currently too low to include in the 12Z TAFs. Northerly surface winds will increase to 5- 10 knots at the regional terminals by 15Z, followed by winds shifting to northwesterly after 16Z. Northwest to northerly surface winds sustained at 5 knots or less will then prevail after 23Z. && .MARINE... High pressure will build over the southeastern states this afternoon in the wake of a cold front that will stall across south Florida tonight. Low pressure will then organize along the northern Gulf coast on Thursday night, with a warm front lifting northward across our local waters on Friday, accompanied by an increasing coverage of showers. Weak low pressure will then move northeastward across southeastern Georgia on Friday evening, with this storm system`s cold front then crossing our local waters on Friday night and Saturday morning. A wave of low pressure will then develop along this front just south of the northeast Florida waters on Saturday night, keeping showers and a few embedded thunderstorms over our local waters through Sunday. Low pressure will then strengthen as it moves offshore on Sunday night and Monday, resulting in strengthening north northwesterly winds as rainfall ends. Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Thursday NE FL Moderate Thursday && .FIRE WEATHER... Light northwest winds become established later this afternoon, with Poor to Fair dispersions developing on Wednesday, becoming Poor by Thursday. The next round of showers and storms expected Thursday evening into the upcoming weekend as an area of low pressure will lift northeast out of the Gulf late in the week, bringing another cold front to push across the area during the upcoming weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 34 58 45 60 / 0 30 50 70 SSI 43 63 52 68 / 0 10 30 40 JAX 42 68 51 77 / 0 10 20 30 SGJ 50 69 56 78 / 0 0 10 10 GNV 44 71 53 79 / 0 0 10 20 OCF 47 73 54 80 / 0 0 10 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1253483 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:03 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 859 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 858 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 - Medium to high (50 to 80%) chances for rain are in the forecast starting late Thursday morning through at least Saturday night. - Widespread rainfall totals of 1" to 4" are possible through the weekend, with higher amounts forecast along and north of a line from near Panama City, FL to Fitzgerald, GA. && .UPDATE... Issued at 858 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Forecast is on track this morning. No updates required. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 203 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Today`s forecast will largely depend on how long the stratus deck following the cold front lingers. Most guidance suggests it lingers through at least mid-morning for much of the area, but may stick around into the early afternoon hours. Temperatures will largely depend on how long the aforementioned cloud deck lingers. As of now, have forecast highs ranging from the middle to upper 50s across Alabama and Georgia to near 60 across much of Florida outside of the SE FL Big Bend, where they`ll see temperatures in the middle to upper 60s. High clouds begin streaming in from the west later tonight ahead of our next storm system, which will be talked about in greater detail in the long term section below. Surface high pressure is forecast to be nearby tonight, allowing for calmer winds. However, the high clouds could throw a wrench into overnight lows, which are currently forecast to dip into the middle 30s across GA and AL to the upper 30s to lower 40s across FL. If the clouds are a bit slower to arrive, we could shave a few degrees off those temperatures, which could lead to some spots below freezing Thursday morning, especially in locations most efficient at radiational cooling. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 203 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Several waves of rain are forecast across the Southeast Thursday through the weekend. There remains some uncertainty with where the axis of heaviest rain will fall. A cold front is forecast to move through Monday, taking the rain with it. Our area will be sandwiched between an H5 ridge across the Florida Straits and a trough to the northwest of us. This promotes southwesterly flow aloft and will keep the storm track very near, if not right over, the region. Add in our area being over the right entrance region of an upper-level jet and it all points to a rainier pattern for the first weekend of December. The first wave of rain is forecast to arrive as a subtle shortwave within the mean H5 flow ripples overhead during the day Thursday. Very dry air in place will have to be overcome Thursday morning before rain finally starts to fall. Most guidance suggests this happening by Thursday afternoon for areas along and northwest of a line from Panama City, FL to Adel, GA with a few light showers/sprinkles forecast more to the south and east of that line, which is farther from the H5 shortwave. Another subtle H5 perturbation moves over the Southeast Friday, but this one is forecast to be a bit more north than Thursday`s. That`s important as a weak area of low pressure is forecast to develop and move inland over our area. This opens the door for a warm sector to advect inland during the day Friday and could lead to a few stronger storms, especially along and south of I-10. Ample speed shear is forecast over the area with fair straight hodographs and bulk shear in excess of 40-50 knots. However, as is usual this time of year, surface instability is lacking with CAPE values generally between 200-500 J/kg. Still, Friday afternoon into Friday night is a time period to watch for stronger storms. More rain is anticipated Saturday into Sunday as a sharper H5 shortwave moves toward the region. Combine this with the proximity of the right entrance region of the upper-level jet and precipitable water values (PWATs) near 1.6-1.8", or nearing the max levels for early December, and this time period has the potential for picking up the most rain. By the time a cold front swings through on Monday, widespread rainfall totals of 1" to 4" are forecast across the region. Locally higher totals are possible, especially if the axis of heavy rain is over the same area for all of the aforementioned rounds. A reasonable worst case, or 10% chance of happening, has as much as 6" of rain falling between Thursday morning and Monday afternoon. To be honest, temperatures throughout this period have lower confidence than usual thanks to the waves of rain in the forecast. Overall, lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s are forecast Thursday night, Friday night, and Saturday night. Daytime highs in the 50s and 60s are forecast Thursday before warming to the upper 50s to near 70 Friday. More 50s and 60s are forecast Saturday and Sunday before the cold front moves through. This pushes lows back into the 40s for everyone Sunday night and the upper 20s to middle 30s Monday night; daytime highs will remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s, but, this time, with a good amount of sunshine and a brisk northerly breeze. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 858 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 A stratus deck is entrenched over the area and is not anticipated to go anywhere the rest of tonight into Wednesday morning. MVFR to IFR ceilings prevail through at least mid-morning at most TAF sites with some potential of them lingering into early Wednesday afternoon. VFR conditions are forecast once the stratus deck lifts out. Otherwise, light to moderate northerly winds are anticipated through the TAF period. A few high clouds begin entering from the west near the end of the TAF period and signify our next storm system for Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Favorable marine conditions are expected through tonight. A tightening pressure gradient brings easterly to northeasterly winds to near Cautionary levels west of Apalachicola Thursday. Southerly winds are forecast Friday as an area of low pressure meanders along the northern Gulf Coast with the potential for Advisory level winds Friday into Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 203 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 High pressure combined with ample low-level moisture and an inversion will keep dispersions low today and again Thursday. Rain chances increase from west to east during the day Thursday with a couple rounds of rain anticipated again Friday and Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 203 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Several rounds of rain are forecast Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. By the time a cold front swings through later this weekend, widespread rainfall totals of 1" to 4" are forecast, with higher totals anticipated along and north of a line near Panama City, FL to Fitzgerald, GA. The lower end of the rainfall amounts are currently forecast across the Florida Big Bend and into south- central Georgia. Fortunately, the riverine flood threat is rather low at this time as much of the rain falling across Alabama and Georgia should be more stratiform in nature and very beneficial. Meanwhile, a few convective downpours are forecast across Florida, mainly along and south of I-10, and could lead to localized flash flooding should they train over our more urban areas. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 59 41 59 49 / 0 0 40 50 Panama City 60 45 58 49 / 0 10 60 60 Dothan 55 37 52 45 / 0 10 70 80 Albany 54 34 54 45 / 0 0 60 70 Valdosta 58 36 60 47 / 0 0 40 40 Cross City 67 41 69 51 / 0 0 10 20 Apalachicola 61 49 62 52 / 0 0 30 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1253482 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 601 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 543 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 - Temperatures look to briefly warm up Wednesday as southeasterly winds bring warmer air to the region. - A cold front Thursday will cool temperatures back off and increase rain chances. Overcast skies and periods of light rain or drizzle will likely continue Friday. - Adverse marine conditions return on Thursday in wake of a cold front, with Small Craft Exercise Caution and/or Small Craft Advisory headlines possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1042 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Southeasterly winds are briefly forecast to return Wednesday, which will likely allow for WAA to increase high temperatures back to the 70s to low 80s across the area Wednesday afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy skies could limit the heating, however the bulk of the model guidance is in good agreement on afternoon temperatures Wednesday. The main outlier is the NAM, which is holding on to the northerly winds and keeping temperatures cooler. While the NAM tends to handle advancing cold fronts well, it has a tendency to hold on to the cold air for too long. Likewise, low temperatures Wednesday night are forecast to increase to the upper 50s to mid 60s. These warmer temperatures will likely be short lived, as another cold front is forecast to move through the area Thursday morning. This will complicate the high temperature forecast on Thursday, as the high will likely occur in the morning, ahead of the front. Temperatures in the northern portions of the CWA likely wont increase much above the Wednesday night low before the front arrives. On the other hand, temperatures along the Rio Grande may be able to increase to the 70s or low 80s before the front arrives. Low temperatures Thursday night look to fall back to the upper 40s to low 50s across the area. Rain chances will also increase with the front, and in the wake of it, as persistent southerly 850mb flow looks to advect moisture over the shallow cold layer. Overcast skies and periods of light rain or drizzle will likely persist into the weekend. This overrunning pattern looks to finally break down Saturday night or Sunday as a deep upper level trough traversing the Central US shifts the low-level flow to the northwest, advecting dry air to the region. Sunny to mostly sunny skies and near zero rain chances will then continue into early next week. Low temperatures will likely remain in the 50s Friday night through the end of the period. Northerly winds and overcast skies will likely keep limit daytime heating on Friday, keeping the high temperatures fairly close to the Thursday night low temperatures. NBM guidance is coming in well above that, about 15 degrees above the low. Mixing in NAM brings the diurnal swing to a more reasonable 8-10 degrees, but that may still be on the high side. High temperatures do look to increase Saturday, as decreased cloud cover will likely allow for more daytime heating. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 MVFR will prevail for the 12Z TAF cycle as the Rio Grande Valley sits beneath a low cloud deck. Expect variable ceiling heights with clouds as low as 007, primarily MVFR, with occasional brief swings to IFR and VFR through the day. Light, variable winds this morning dominantly from the north will pick up slightly and shift from the southeast this morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1042 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Favorable marine conditions will likely persist through Wednesday night. A cold front moving south through the area Thursday will likely bring stronger northerly winds and increased seas Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines or Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for that time period. Generally favorable conditions look to return by Friday afternoon, and continue through the remainder of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 78 68 81 54 / 10 10 60 60 HARLINGEN 78 64 79 50 / 10 10 60 50 MCALLEN 79 67 78 54 / 10 10 40 40 RIO GRANDE CITY 80 62 75 52 / 0 10 30 30 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 73 78 61 / 20 20 70 70 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 67 79 53 / 20 10 60 60 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1253481 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:51 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 647 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Moderate Rip Current Risk At Area Beaches Today - Patchy Frost For Inland Southeast GA This Morning & Thursday - Extreme Drought for Inland Areas - Potential for Locally Heavy Rain SE GA Friday & Saturday && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... MVFR ceilings of 1,500 - 3,000 feet will prevail at the regional terminals this morning through early this afternoon, with ceilings then lifting to VFR by 18Z at the Duval County terminals and SSI and by 20Z at GNV and SGJ. Periods of MVFR visibilities may develop after 06Z Thursday at VQQ, but confidence was currently too low to include in the 12Z TAFs. Northerly surface winds will increase to 5- 10 knots at the regional terminals by 15Z, followed by winds shifting to northwesterly after 16Z. Northwest to northerly surface winds sustained at 5 knots or less will then prevail after 23Z. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Cool drier air associated with high pressure will build in over the region today, following the previous nights frontal passage, with calm weather and mild winds throughout today and tonight. Patchy early morning frost developments are expected over inland southeast Georgia early this morning before clearing with the sunrise. Patchy frost conditions are expected to return during the early AM hours tonight and extend into early Thursday morning. High temperatures today will rise into the mid to upper 50s and lower 60s over southeast Georgia and in the mid to upper 60s and lower 70s over northeast Florida. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid 30s for inland southeast Georgia and in the lower to mid 40s over inland northeast Florida and in the 40s and lower 50s for areas along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... By Thursday, an area of low pressure near the Gulf Coast will begin lifting a warm front across Florida. Moisture will gradually increase from the southwest, most notably across north of I-10 will 700-400 mb WSW flow starts to prime the atmosphere. Skies will trend from mostly sunny in the morning to mostly cloudy by afternoon especially across SE Georgia and Suwannee Valley. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than Wednesday, with highs in the mid 60s across SE GA and the upper 60s to lower 70s across Northeast FL. Dry conditions will persist most of the day, though a few light showers or sprinkles may develop over the far interior SE GA during the afternoon continuing into the nocturnal hours. Thursday night, cloud cover will continue to increase as deep moisture streams northward ahead of the approaching Gulf System. Lows will be warmer, generally in mid 40s for inland SE GA and low to mid 50s across NE FL. Northeast winds will remain around 5 to 10 mph. Shower chances will rise overnight, especially SE GA and the Suwannee Valley where POPS range 25 to 45 percent, with likely POPS near the Ocmulgee River Basin. By Friday morning, the warm front will lift north toward I-10 corridor and is expected to reach near Waycross by early Friday evening. This will bring increasing moisture and warmer temperatures. Highs will reach the mid 70s to near 80 degrees across much of NE and N Central FL, while SE GA will see mid 60s to lower 70s. Showers will embedded thunderstorms will become more widespread, especially during the afternoon and evening hours, with highest coverage across SE GA, the Suwannee Valley, and areas north of I-10. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook indicates a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall across of SE GA. The cold front will press and then push through SE GA late Friday morning and stall near the I-10 corridor by daybreak Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The cold front will finally push south of the area by late Saturday night into Sunday morning as the associated low lifts northeastward. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected through Saturday afternoon and evening. Rain chances will gradually decrease Saturday night, though scattered showers are anticipated into Sunday. With southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the front on Saturday, deep Gulf moisture transport will support periods of heavy rainfall with some guidance suggesting 2 to 4 inches across portions of Southeast Georgia. The marginal risk for excessive rainfall shifts southward Saturday to include most of SE GA and NE FL as the front progresses through the region. From Sunday night through Tuesday, a drier and colder airmass will settle over the area under building high pressure. Temperatures will fall below normal for early December, with highs in the lower to mid 60s and overnight lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Guidance also suggest another, albeit drier, reinforcing front boundary Monday, supporting cool and dry conditions with good model agreement. && .MARINE... Troughing will linger over coastal waters into Wednesday, as high pressure builds to the northwest. The high will build to the north Thursday. An area of low pressure will move northeast out of the Gulf Friday, with the frontal system associated with this low lingering over the region through the weekend. Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Thursday NE FL Moderate Thursday && .FIRE WEATHER... Light northwest winds become established later this afternoon, with Poor to Fair dispersions developing, becoming Poor by Thursday. The next round of showers and storms expected Thursday evening into the upcoming weekend as an area of low pressure will lift northeast out of the Gulf late in the week, bringing another cold front to push across the area during the upcoming weekend. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Patchy frost possible Wednesday Night and early Thursday morning for interior locations in southeast GA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 35 58 45 60 / 0 30 50 70 SSI 44 63 52 68 / 0 10 30 40 JAX 41 68 51 77 / 0 10 20 30 SGJ 48 69 56 78 / 0 0 10 10 GNV 43 71 53 79 / 0 0 10 20 OCF 45 73 54 80 / 0 0 10 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1253480 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 542 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 538 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 - With rather persistent cloud cover most of the evening and even holding on into the overnight hours the potential for freezing conditions has decreased precipitously - Another storm system will bring widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms to the area Thursday through Friday night. There will be at least a low-end threat of heavy rain with this system and two-day rainfall totals are currently forecast in the 2-4 inch range. Please check the forecast for updates in the coming days as forecast rainfall totals and associated flood threats will continue to be refined. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through this Evening) Issued at 1120 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Clouds have plagued the area all night and we are not quite cooling as much as expected. This is going to have a significant impact on morning lows and we will likely remain abv freezing over most if not all of the area. Forecast focus is on the overnight period through the weekend but quickly today. Clouds could still be a little stubborn to start the day but eventually the low clouds should clear out but as soon as the occurs mid lvl clouds will quickly push in from the southwest this afternoon. This is the beginning of moisture returning which will increase much more rapidly overnight. Highs will be warmer today with upper 50s to mid 60s. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1120 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Main forecast concern is Thursday through the weekend. Models continue to struggle some with placement of the rain, how much, and how fast long it lasts at times. The latest trend has been a renewed 3rd shot of rain over mainly coastal sections of the CWA Saturday night into Sunday. The biggest problem with the overnight forecast tonight and through Thursday is how models are handling the band of rain/convection with 2 distinct scenarios being advertised. One where the regional and global models have the higher rain across the northern half of the area and the other advertised by the CAMs which as one would expect try to surge the convection towards the higher instability and cut off the moisture for a good chunk of the northern half of the CWA. Given the highly uncertain and low confidence in the forecast stuck pretty close to the latest NBM guidance. It is showing high PoPs for almost the entire area from overnight tonight till early Sunday and lets be honest it will not rain over the entire area that entire time. However, trying to explicitly time things out and focus on specific locations is mostly futile right now. So a quick look at the pattern and setup. Overnight tonight with a rather ugly L/W trough stretching to the southwest from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific well southwest of southern CA. This is already putting us under increasing west-southwest to southwest flow aloft which is easily visible on GOES19 with clouds streaming from the Pacific across Mexico and now into southern TX and the western Gulf. That said there are a few keys pieces of energy embedded in the broad L/W with the one that will have the greatest say over the area currently moving south over CA. This stronger s/w will begin to split with part of it heading back to the south-southwest along the backside of the trough and the rest trying to round out just south of the 4 corners. This s/w will start to flatten out and eventually just merge becoming more part of the L/W trough. That said it will add a lot of energy with the mid lvl flow greatly responding across the southern Plains, the Lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley Thursday. Even though it just becomes part of the whole setup and loses its identity it will provide enough support to see low pressure start to take shape across the TX coast early Thursday with an inverted trough axis extending to the northeast across southern LA. If the s/w can hold onto its identity a little more it may try to help to draw the broad sfc low and inverted trough a touch more north however, if it just quickly merges with the main flow we will likely see a weaker broad sfc low along the TX coast and the inverted trough and possible warm front along the coast. This will have implications on rainfall especially amounts and location. This is where the the two different scenarios emerge. First all model solutions have a weak sfc low and the bigger issue is how the handle the evolution of convection and the locations of the inverted trough and warm front. The global and even regional models draw things farther north where the CAMs which are just now getting into the time frame really allow convection to dictate and eventually surge the convection cold pool style towards the coast and the better instability. That would make sense but am hesitant given as this could just be feedback as the CAMs just feed into themselves. The strong s/w and its impact across the southern Plains make me initially think it will try to draw things a touch farther north. The key will be where convection as as we cross midnight tonight and see it it is continuing to expand ENE or if the eastern edge of the precip isn`t quickly expanding ENE and actually holding onto a harder edge and moving more east with a slight southern component suggesting it trying to be drawn towards the coast. This also would likely be self fulfilling as convection would try to strengthen the sfc low over the coast or coastal waters and thus reinforce convection trying to become more coastal. Again if I had to choose one side over the other I am probably slightly leaning towards the global and regional models. The forcing is not overwhelming to really lead to so strong of convection that cold pooling would take over. In addition the strongest forcing is still north so convection will likely remain focused on the inverted trough which will eventually get anchored over the northern half of the CWA early Thursday through the midday hours. As for potential of heavy rain. The biggest feature is rapidly increasing moisture overnight tonight. PWs will be abv the 90th percentile. So convection will already be efficient and combine that with some elevated instability to work with and there could be a band of locally heavy rain. Obviously the other concern would be training given the band will likely be parallel to the mid lvl flow so the main issue would be where that sets up. Most of the area had been rather dry and even with vegetation likely in a more dormant phase the dry soils and low rivers can handle quite a bit of rain. The issue would be if this lines up directly over any of our larger urban areas. Where runoff is always a problem if the rain comes down hard enough. That is just round one as the trough starts to buckle a little with some the closed low in the Pacific finally sliding east with the L/W trough. This will lead to a break in the rain late Thursday and possible Thursday night however there will still be spotty showers out there overnight. The next round of rain be Friday as stronger forcing spreads out over the area. Even though the forcing will increase it will be broad with no real focus and still some weak inverted trough laying up along the southeastern half of the CWA Friday. Rain will likely be lighter Friday especially over the northwest. As that moves to the east we will probably see another break with spotty light rain overnight Friday and into Saturday but a third area of low pressure could develop over the southern Plains or even the western Gulf and as the trough axis gets closer we will see a 3rd round of rain try to impact the region overnight Saturday and into Sunday. One last thing to mention and it was brought up in the Marine section. There is a window for minor coastal flooding Thursday night into Friday during high tide. 24 to 36 hours of easterly to east- southeasterly flow increasing in strength and occuring at the same time as peak tides this month should lead to some minor coastal flooding across coastal Hancock county and east facing shore of SELA. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 538 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 A low stratus deck ranging between 1000 and 1500 feet has persisted at most of the terminals through the night. Only BTR has remained clear, but the stratus deck is now expanding westward and will be in place at BTR by the top of the hour. As a result, all of the terminals will continue to experience these MVFR and fuel alternate ceilings through at least 18z. Some mixing of drier mid-level air toward the surface after 18z will allow the ceilings to briefly improve into MVFR range of 3000 to 6000 feet this afternoon into early this evening. However, increased isentropic upglide over a cool and stable airmass at the surface will start to bring rain to the terminals between 04z and 08z. The rain will turn moderate with IFR visibilities of 2 to 3 miles and a mix of IFR and MVFR ceilings ranging from 800 to 1500 feet from 08z through the end of the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1120 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 High pressure has moved in but will continue to sliding east quickly leading to light return flow by midday/early afternoon today. Weak low pressure will begin to develop along the Texas coast tonight and slowly drift east-northeast Thursday along the coast. This will tighten the pressure gradient especially east of the Mississippi River delta. Winds will increase with moderate to strong east- southeast to easterly winds. This will have multiple impacts with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected Thursday into Friday but the increase in onshore winds will combine with the increasing tidal cycle at the end of the week likely leading to at least some minor coastal flooding. Main concern will be east facing shores of Orleans, St Bernard, Plaquemines, and far southeastern St Tammany. In addition coastal Hancock around Waveland will also deal with some minor coastal flooding Thursday night through Friday morning. Winds will relax and return to offshore late Friday and Friday night but another weak surface low will develop Saturday moving across the coastal waters late Saturday bringing another brief period of moderate to strong winds. /CAB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 59 42 50 44 / 0 90 100 90 BTR 62 47 55 47 / 0 100 100 90 ASD 60 44 56 47 / 0 80 90 80 MSY 63 52 61 53 / 0 80 90 80 GPT 59 45 56 48 / 0 70 90 80 PQL 60 41 58 46 / 0 60 90 80 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1253479 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 538 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances return tonight due to another coastal low and incoming cold front with the greatest coverage of the showers and isolated thunderstorms likely remaining along the coast. - Additional passing disturbances will provide intermittent periods of rain behind the front Thursday and Friday. - Drier weather anticipated this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Another chilly night is expected across SE Texas with light winds and mostly clear skies. Temperatures by daybreak will be in low to mid 40s along and south of I-10, and then mid to upper 30s north of I-10 with parts of the Piney Woods approaching freezing. We do warm up on Wednesday as southeasterly flow returns with high pressure sliding to the east. High temperatures Wednesday afternoon will rise into the mid to upper 60s for much of the area, and into the upper 50s to low 60s in the Brazos Valley to Piney Woods region. The southeasterly flow will not just usher in warmer temperatures, but also increase moisture across the area leading to increasing clouds during the day and then a return of rain chances as early as Wednesday evening with rain chances continuing for parts of the region through Friday. A weak coastal low is expected to develop late Wednesday night into Thursday. The model trend the past few runs has been for less rain coverage/intensity for our area, and shifting the heaviest of the rains either off shore or into LA - however we can still expect widespread light to moderate rainfall and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday. Also cannot out-rule some isolated locally heavy rainfall along and south of I-10. The passage of a weak cold front on Friday will begin to end the rainfall chances inland, but lingering moisture and passing upper level disturbances may lead to isolated coastal showers through the day on Friday and possibly into early Saturday morning. It won`t be until a reinforcing front pushes through this weekend that fully clears out the lingering moisture and ushering in a strong surface high pressure. Rain totals through Saturday morning will be generally up to 0.5 to 1" across much of the area, but isolated higher totals of 2-3" possible along the coast. And the majority of this rainfall will be falling late Wednesday night through Thursday. WPC does maintain a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall along the coast during this timeframe. Overcast skies and rainy conditions will keep us cool on Thursday with highs only in the mid 50s to low 60s, and then that passing cold front on Friday and continued cloudy skies will keep temperatures in the low to mid 50s during the day. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s north of I-10, and then mid 40s to low 50s south of I-10 to the coast. Fowler && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 538 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 MVFR ceilings are beginning to fill in from the south. They`ll likely remain in MVFR territory into the late afternoon. Then we`ll see areas of rain, drizzle, fog expand across the area this evening and overnight. There will probably be some embedded storms as well. Could see some localized heavy downpours in the metro and coastal areas in the 3-9z timeframe. Messy conditions with IFR prevailing...and maybe LIFR at times well into Thurs. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Light southeasterly winds will develop by daybreak Wednesday with winds increasing to around 15kt by Wednesday afternoon. A coastal low is expected to develop late Wednesday night into Thursday bringing not only widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms, but also moderate to strong northeasterly winds on the north side of the system. Small Craft Advisories may be needed as early as Thursday morning with northeasterly winds increasing to 15-25kt, and seas climbing to 4-6ft. The system will push to the east late Thursday into Friday leading to a lowering of the winds, but lingering moisture will lead to scattered shower activity through Saturday morning. Patchy fog will also be possible as the high moisture and lowering winds overlap. Light to occasionally moderate northeasterly winds will then persist through the weekend. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 61 51 54 42 / 20 70 50 30 Houston (IAH) 65 55 60 46 / 20 80 70 40 Galveston (GLS) 70 63 66 52 / 30 80 80 60 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from noon CST today through late tonight for GMZ370-375. && $$ |
| #1253478 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 639 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail today before another frontal system impacts the area Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The forecast area will remain between a departing cold front over the western Atlantic and high pressure centered over the southern Appalachians today. This morning, high resolution guidance indicates that an sfc trough or weak backdoor cold front will reach the SC Lowcountry during the pre-dawn hours. This feature may push south, slowing or becoming stationary near the Savannah River by late this morning. Based on satellite trends, cloud cover should decrease across the SC Lowcountry north of the sfc trough. However, linger stratus south of the trough and the arrival of afternoon cirrus may keep the sky across SE GA mostly to partly cloudy through the day. Using a blend of guidance, high temperatures are forecast to range in the mid to upper 50s. Tonight, the center of high pressure will build across the CWA. As a result, winds across the forecast area should become calm inland this evening, with little to no wind expected across the coastal counties late tonight. Given the recent soaking rainfall, the combination of wet soil and calm winds, there is potential for at least ground fog by dawn Thursday morning. However, high clouds sourced from a southern stream system may stream across the region tonight, limiting the potential for mentionable fog. Low temperatures may range from freezing inland to the mid to upper 30s across the coastal counties. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Thursday: High pressure will quickly loose cohesion in the morning as ageostrophic convergence quickly turns neutral as a potent mid- level wave moves east over the Hudson Bay. 850/ 500 mb flow also is westerly with a mid-level low over the Baja of California. There are some hints that pieces of PV will advect east Thursday bringing a chance of precipitation to interior GA. The main limiting factor appears to be low level saturation. Latest model guidance and ensemble suites are faster with the overall progression of the shortwave than this time yesterday though. Therefore, chance PoPs are now in the forecast Thursday afternoon for interior GA. Expect temperatures below normal for this time of year. Friday and Saturday: Ensemble members have come into better agreement today with the overall synoptic pattern and resultant sensible weather at the surface. The mid-level low over the Baja of California is now forecast to quasi- wave break and slow down the overall group velocity of the long wave trough. However, the phase velocity of individual wave packets diving southeast out of the Colorado Rockies actually increases in speed with long wave trough amplification remaining. The means Friday looks wet as multiple rounds of PV advect over the region and a weak coastal low forms. The coastal low will then move northeast off the coast of SC and GA. Another shortwave will then move overhead Saturday with the best forcing for ascent (from a RRQ of an upper level jet, PVA and WAA) being from the Panhandle of FL across GA and coastal SC. Precipitation totals Friday through Saturday night are now forecast to be in the 1" - 2" range. One final note on ensemble agreement. The past two days, model agreement has remained rather poor due to the potential of a cut off low near the Baja of California. WPC cluster analysis from the 02.12z guidance now shows all ensemble members indicating rain on both Friday and Saturday. This agreement is rather impressive considering yesterdays guidance split, and caution is advised on the seeming model agreement (the WPC Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis still shows a majority of model variance coming from the Baja of California and Hudson Bay lows on Friday). && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Precipitation could linger across the area on Sunday as the primary mid-level wave from the Colorado Rockies finally moves east. A cold front will then push through the region bringing an end to the precipitation. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday fall well below normal with freezing temperatures possible Monday night and Tuesday night. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Prior to the 12Z TAFs, nighttime microphysics indicated a large area of MVFR ceilings across the terminals. The restrictive ceilings should remain as a sfc trough or weak backdoor front pushes over the SC Lowcountry this morning. The passage of the trough will result in light winds to shift from the northeast along with lifting of cloud bases. Based on satellite trends, conditions over KCHS and KJZI are forecast to improve to VFR between 14-15Z. The sfc trough should slow or becoming stationary near the Savannah River by late this morning. As a result, MVFR ceilings over KSAV may linger until early this afternoon. Also, winds at KSAV may remain from the northwest through the TAF period. Extended Aviation Outlook: Thursday: VFR. Friday and Saturday: Cloud bases will lower early Friday and reach IFR conditions. IFR/ MVFR conditions are then forecast to continue through Saturday. Widespread rainfall is likely, but forecast soundings indicate no thunder as TAF sites remain on the cool side of a coastal front. Sunday: IFR conditions slowly recovering to VFR as a cold front moves through the region. Precipitation will also come to an end with winds out of the north/ northwest. && .MARINE... Today and tonight: No concerns across the marine zones. The pressure pattern will support generally northwest winds around 10 kts. Seas will remain between 2 to 3 ft. Thursday: Northwest winds veering from the north 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. No precipitation or marine headlines are forecast. Friday and Saturday: Winds will veer from the northeast 10 to 15 kt. Widespread showers and possibly a thunderstorm expected Friday and Saturday as a coastal low moves northeast. Expect seas 2 to 4 ft. Sunday: A cold front will cross the waters Sunday with winds out of the north 10 to 15 kt. Precipitation will come to an end during the day. Expect seas 2 to 4 ft. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides will continue to rise with the morning high tide cycles through Friday and remain elevated through the weekend. Coastal Flood Advisories will likely be needed for morning high tide cycles, primarily at Charleston Harbor (Charleston and Coastal Colleton counties) through Saturday morning. Friday, astronomical high tides peak (6.8 ft MLLW at Charleston Harbor and 8.86 ft MLLW at Fort Pulaski) and this is when winds are forecast to turn from the northeast. Overall, this type of setup can over perform given the building anomalies from the northeast winds. Currently, moderate coastal flooding is forecast at Charleston Harbor and minor coastal flooding is forecast at Fort Pulaski. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1253477 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 621 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the area from the north through Thursday before the pattern becomes unsettled again starting Friday and lasting through the start of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1 AM Wednesday... Key Messages... - Clearing skies overnight with cold temperatures A quiet night is in store after a busy weather day across ENC. The low that dumped a couple of inches of rain to the area is continuing to move northeast off of New England and high pressure is building in. CAA will ramp up behind a passing shortwave tonight, veering winds to NNE and clearing skies for much of the CWA, save for the OBX. Temps will crater to the upper 20s to low 30s across the coastal plain and mid 30s to low 40s along the coast. There won`t be much cloud cover to speak of today outside of some CAA strato-cu along the OBX. It`ll be pretty chilly with highs in the upper 40s north of Highway 264 and low 50s to the south. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 1 AM Wednesday... Key Messages.. - Fog possible late tonight/early Thursday morning With mostly clear skies and light winds, we`ll efficiently radiate tonight. Temps will tank after sunset with lows ranging from the upper 20s inland to upper 30s along the coast. There`s potential for fog to develop across the coastal plain late tonight/early Thursday, and given that temps will be below freezing, this raises concerns for freezing fog. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1 AM Tuesday... Key Messages - High pressure brings dry conditions and below normal temperatures Thursday - Another low pressure system is expected to impact the region late in the week High pressure will remain in control through the day Thursday, allowing us to stay dry and for temps to rebound to the mid 50s. A dry cold front will then pass Thursday night, sending lows into the low to mid 30s inland and low to mid 40s along the coast. The forecast becomes more unsettled starting Friday as a series of lows will move along a stalled boundary offshore and several shortwaves move through aloft. These lows will keep rain chances in the forecast through at least the weekend with highest chances being from Friday morning through Saturday morning. Surface temps across northwestern zones will be near freezing Friday morning, which will open the door for a wintry mix. Elsewhere, temps will be warm enough to keep the precip all liquid. A large temperature gradient will exist on Friday with highs in the low 40s inland and mid to upper 50s at the coast. Highs won`t be much different along the coast on Saturday but will warm to the upper 40s to low 50s inland. Slight chance/low end chance PoPs will stick around on Sunday (highest along the coast) with highs in the low to mid 50s. The start of next week looks to remain unsettled along the eastern half of the CWA with lingering slight chance/chance PoPs. Dry conditions across the board return Tuesday as high pressure builds back in. Highs will be in the mid 40s to low 50s both days. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 620 AM Wed... Key Messages - Gradually improving conditions early this morning Mixed bag of conditions early this morning, ranging from VFR to MVFR. Low stratus will continue to sink southward and push offshore in the next few hours, giving way to pred VFR conditions. Mainly sunny skies expected today with the exception of the OBX where STCU will skirt the coast. High pressure will build in through the day with winds becoming light and variable. Radiation fog, patchy dense, will be possible tonight into early Thursday morning, with mostly clear skies and calm winds. Outlook: The next system is expected to move through ENC Friday and Saturday with another risk of widespread sub-VFR conditions. && .MARINE... As of 1 AM Wednesday... Key Messages - SCAs in effect for all coastal waters (expiring this morning) - Conditions improving through the day Latest obs show NNE winds at 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt and 5-7 ft seas. Conditions will continue to improve over the next few hours with ongoing SCAs across the coastal waters set to drop later this morning, lasting the longest from Ocracoke Inlet north due to lingering 6+ ft seas. NNE winds will decrease to 5-10 kt by this evening with seas subsiding to 3-4 ft. Tonight, winds will back to the NE but remain around 5-10 kt. Outlook: A dry cold front will pass Thursday night, which could generate a few northerly 25 kt gusts. A series of coastal lows will move through later this week and this weekend, bringing solid chances for rain but a low threat of SCA winds and seas (as of right now). Aside from the brief period of potential 25 kt gusts Thursday night, the next best chance for SCA winds will be on Monday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ150- 152-154. && $$ |
| #1253476 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 524 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 517 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 - Low to medium rain chances (30-60%) today through Friday - Potential minor coastal flooding today through late week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1240 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 As onshore flow resumes today an overrunning pattern will develop leading to increased rain chances across the area. PWATs are progged to rise to near 1.8-1.9 inches by this evening, which is well above normal (99th percentile) for this time of year. Although most of the rain will concentrate over the Victoria Crossroads with PoPs at 30- 60% today through tonight, medium chances will spread westward (40- 60%) Thursday morning ahead of the next cold front. The boundary will swing by the region and exit into the coastal waters by Thursday afternoon with rain chances shifting back eastward. Low to medium rain chances will then continue through Friday night before drying out over the weekend as another boundary moves through and high pressure settles behind it. Temperatures will be warmer today, with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Thursday will be a few degrees cooler, but highs will struggle to get out of the 50s Friday owing to the increased cloud coverage and rain in the wake of Thursday`s front. Warmer temperatures return over the weekend, but will be cooler early next week behind the next boundary. Thursday night and Monday night will be the coldest, with lows mostly in the 40s. We will continue to monitor beach conditions for potential minor coastal flooding today through late week, with tide levels forecast to peak close to 1.8 ft MSL. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 517 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 A 2.5-3.5 kft cloud deck is resulting in mostly MVFR conditions across South Texas with this cloud deck remaining in place through late morning. After 00Z, conditions degrade into IFR conditions thanks to even further reduced CIGs and patchy fog developing. This will be most evident after 06Z when most of the areas starts transitioning into LIFR CIGs, with VIS further being reduced thanks to scattered rain and patchy fog Across the Victoria Crossroads, the chance of visibility being reduced below 1/4 SM is 20-40%. A cold front moving through at the start of the next TAF cycle will quickly transition into more MVFR conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 1240 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 A gentle to moderate onshore breeze (BF 3-4) can be expected today through tonight across the coastal waters. Another cold front is forecast to push through Thursday morning, bringing another wave of fresh to strong northeasterly flow in its wake through Thursday night. This will likely warrant a Small Craft Advisory. Winds weaken to gentle to moderate heading into the weekend, with the wind direction varying. Moderate rain chances today will increase to medium to high, 60-90%, Thursday through Friday. Low rain chances linger through Saturday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 69 60 68 48 / 20 30 60 50 Victoria 67 55 62 43 / 40 60 60 40 Laredo 75 60 67 50 / 10 20 50 40 Alice 70 57 66 45 / 10 20 50 50 Rockport 71 60 67 48 / 40 50 70 50 Cotulla 71 55 61 47 / 0 30 50 40 Kingsville 71 60 68 47 / 20 20 50 50 Navy Corpus 72 64 70 51 / 40 40 70 50 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1253475 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 625 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 230 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 - Dry conditions forecast through mid to late week. Cool today, then warming Thursday-Saturday. - Another front late this week or early next week brings the next chances of rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Today-Tonight...A cold front continues to push south through ECFL early this morning. Any convective activity associated has long since ended, but we will likely see low stratus clouds overspread much of the coverage warning area this morning. This low "grunge" may be around for much of the morning, with gradual improvement in cloud ceilings in the afternoon. Some patchy fog cannot be ruled out either. High pressure will build into the southeast U.S. behind the front later today and tonight. The pressure gradient will remain weak with NW/N winds 5-10 mph expected. Later in the afternoon and early evening, wind direction may veer a bit more NNE along the coast. A light northerly component of wind will continue tonight. Conditions remain mainly dry. Highs cooler today with L70s north/west of I-4, and M-U70s southward - possibly around 80F across Martin and southern St. Lucie counties. Much cooler tonight with forecast mins in the U40s to around 50F north/west of I-4 with L-M 50s most everywhere else, except U50s to L60s immediate Space/Treasure coasts. Thu-Fri...Surface high pressure weakens, though conditions remain dry thru the period. Winds veer NE/ENE 5-10 mph, but we may see a degree of variability for surface winds across the ECFL interior on Thu. Light winds Thu night, then light southerly winds developing into Fri. The next potential low pressure system will develop across the western Gulf with low pressure tracking across the northern Gulf late Thu/Fri. This should drag the next front into the FL Panhandle by sunrise Sat morning as increasing moisture pools ahead of and along this next system. Gradual warming trend Thu/Fri with maxes in the L-M70s across the I- 4 corridor and M-U70s southward - perhaps some 80 degree readings near Lake Okee. Near 80F to L80s prevail Fri and perhaps a few M80s surrounding Lake Okee. For mins, slightly warmer Thu night/Fri morning with M-U50s most everywhere, except L60s closer towards the coast - M60s for barrier islands. Generally L-M 60s areawide Fri overnight/Sat morning. Sat-Tue...The next front remains north of ECFL thru Sat, but does make some gradual movement southward Sat night towards the central FL peninsula. Moisture (PWATs 1.75-2.00") will continue to pool along and out ahead of the boundary. Both the GFS/ECMWF seemingly bring the boundary thru the area on Sun and into the southern peninsula Sun night into early Mon. We keep SCT (30-50%) showers in the forecast near Orlando northward during the day on Sat and Vero Beach northward Sat night (ISOLD, 10-24%, elsewhere). This system is slow to sag thru the area and we have PoPs 50% areawide on Sun and 25-40% Sun night. There will also be an ISOLD threat of thunder this weekend. Moisture is a bit slow to scour out southward on Mon and a 15-30pct shower chance will be possible south of Orlando for this day. High pressure gradually settles in behind this latest weather system with mainly dry conditions areawide Mon night-Tue night. Highs remain above normal in the U70s/L80s (few M80s southward) for Sat (pre-frontal). Maxes in the 70s Melbourne northward on Sun with near 80F to L80s southward. Cooler yet on Mon/Tue (post-frontal) in the U60s to around 70F across I-4 with L70s southward - possible M70s for Martin County. Lows in the 60s areawide Sat night/Sun morning, and generally 50s to L60s for Sun night/Mon morning. A reinforcing "Clipper" front will push down the area late on Mon driving overnight mins for Mon night/Tue morning into the M-U40s to around 50F for much of the interior and Volusia coast with L-M 50s southward along the Space/Treasure coasts, except U50s for coastal Martin County. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Today-Tonight...Developing post-frontal conditions as high pressure builds in from the NW, with relaxing pressure gradient, and NW/N winds 7-11 kts. Seas subsiding to 2-3 ft near shore and 3-4 ft offshore thru the period. Conditions mainly dry. Thu-Sun...A developing long period ERLY swell ~10 seconds. Winds and seas become favorable from mid-late week as northerly (~ 10 kts) winds early on Thu begin to veer more onshore through the day and becoming southerly thru Fri and S/SW Fri night/Sat and more WRLY during the day on Sun ahead of an approaching front. The pgrad may tighten a bit Fri night into the weekend with 15 kt speeds well offshore. Seas 2-3 ft very near shore Thu-Sat, but may increase to 5 ft well offshore Cape northward Sat overnight/Sun - possibly to 6 ft offshore Sun night. Generally dry thru Fri night, but SCT showers and ISOLD lightning storms may enter the picture again Sat-Sun as moisture increases with approaching front. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 625 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Stratus continues to linger across east central Florida this morning, with MVFR to IFR ceilings at most terminals. Anticipate ceilings improving after 16Z areawide, with VFR conditions then prevailing through the remainder of the period. NNW winds 5 to 10 knots persist through the period, becoming light and variable to calm overnight. Dry air settles across east central Florida, with no rain forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 71 52 72 59 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 75 55 77 60 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 75 58 76 63 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 77 57 77 61 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 72 50 75 58 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 73 52 75 59 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 73 54 76 60 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 78 57 78 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1253474 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 629 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 625 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 - Dry and comfortable weather for the middle to end of this week. - Above average temperatures continue into the end of the week with highs increasing to the mid to upper 80s by week`s end. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 120 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 The weak frontal boundary will push through South Florida this morning, ushering in some drier air into the local atmospheric column. Additionally, the upper level ridge centered over the Caribbean and extending into the Eastern CONUS will provide subsidence and inhibit any shallow moist layers from having enough lift to produce weak showers. Surface high pressure will also be centered over the SE states and further provide inhibition. As a result, a quiet and comfortable weather pattern is setting up for the next few days. High temperatures are expected in the low to mid 80s today and tomorrow with overnight lows ranging from the mid to upper 50s and low 60s for the interior and Gulf coast to the mid to upper 60s for the east coast metro areas. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 120 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Mid-level and upper-level ridging will remain over the Caribbean and western Atlantic through Saturday before beginning to break down as longwave troughing enhances across the central and eastern CONUS. This will lead to ongoing tranquil weather through Saturday before we begin to see indications of a pattern change in the latter half of Sunday and heading into next week. With high pressure dominance through Saturday, temperatures will trend higher than normal in the mid to upper 80s for Friday through this weekend. The mid-level ridge will eventually get pushed away from the area as the strengthening trough over the central and eastern U.S. breaks up into an overall elongated trough and a deeper shortwave forming over the southeast and Mid-Atlantic states. An attendant cold front will advect southwards from this disturbance and ahead of its arrival the low level wind flow will shift to the south and southwest over the weekend, leading to an increase in moisture advection back into South Florida. As a result, with this cold front expected to be a more robust one compared to the last couple, the front will be able to lift this warm and moist air out ahead of it and increase the chances for some rain showers and thunderstorms mainly for the second half of Sunday as well as Monday. Despite the increase in moisture, model soundings this far out do suggest that there will not be an overwhelming amount of instability as the frontal passage occurs. Thus, most showers and storms that occur during this time frame could end up being of the garden variety with a couple of heavier localized pockets. Overall, any QPF forecast is still highly uncertain at this time but will begin to be more refined in the next few days. In general, not expecting much in the way of impactful weather with this system at this time. Behind this front that right now looks to pass through the region on Monday, overall quiet weather returns for the end of the forecast period heading into the middle of next week as a substantially drier air mass returns to the region. Temperatures for early next week will drop into the 70s on Monday behind the aforementioned front and will struggle to rebound for a couple of days. Overnight lows will also get chillier behind the front with chances for most areas to fall into the 50s Monday night and even a few areas into the upper 40s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 A low cloud deck will bring IFR to MVFR ceilings to the east coast terminals through 15z out ahead of a weak frontal boundary pushing through the region. This low cloud deck will gradually lift which will allow for VFR conditions to return to all terminals early this afternoon. Light and variable winds this morning will increase out of the NNW after 15z and will range between 5 to 10 kts this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 120 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 A gentle to moderate northerly breeze is expected today as a frontal boundary passes through the area this morning into the afternoon. Winds then increase for the end of the week to a moderate breeze and shift easterly on Thursday and southeasterly on Friday. Seas across all local waters for the next couple of days are expected at 2-3 feet. && .BEACHES... Issued at 120 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 A moderate risk for rip currents continues for the Palm beaches the next couple of days, with a low risk for the rest of the local beaches. An elevated risk may continue through the end of the week and this weekend for portions of the Atlantic coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 84 68 81 70 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 85 65 84 66 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 85 67 83 69 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 84 67 82 69 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 82 66 80 69 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 82 67 81 69 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 85 67 83 68 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 82 65 81 68 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 84 66 81 69 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 81 61 82 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1253473 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 628 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and drier through Thursday then warming trend into the weekend. - Next round of unsettled conditions over the weekend. - Improving conditions early next week along with cooler temps. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Some lingering low clouds will lead to periodic MVFR conditions across area terminals this morning, but VFR should return by 14-15Z and will prevail through the rest of the forecast period. Light winds become north/northwest through the day, transitioning to northeast/east tonight into tomorrow. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Westerly flow aloft over the peninsula this morning between broad troughing aloft encompassing most of the CONUS and ridging from the far S Gulf/NW Caribbean into the W Atlantic. A surface frontal boundary continues to push south across SWFL and will likely stall and remain in the S FL/FL Straits vicinity through late week. A series of shortwaves propagating eastward across the Deep South/SE U.S. this weekend will support the development of a few frontal waves while the lingering surface boundary lifts back north over the peninsula leading to increasing moisture and rain chances. While ridging may hold just enough on Saturday to keep highest rain chances confined to northern and Nature Coast locations, guidance indicates the ridging shifting E into the Atlantic on Sunday ahead of a more potent approaching shortwave, allowing deeper moisture to advect N/E over the peninsula ahead of the surface boundary pushing back S/E across the area leading to area wide shower and storm chances. Cooler drier air filters into the region in the wake of the front early next week as Canadian high pressure settles across the C/E U.S. favoring dry conditions and below normal temps across the local area. && .MARINE... Issued at 200 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Cooler and drier conditions settle across the coastal waters with winds and seas continuing to diminish in the wake of a passing cold front. Quieter marine conditions persist into the weekend when the next cold front and rain chances arrive. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Minimal fire weather concerns expected through the period as minimum RH values remain above critical thresholds. Rain free conditions through the end of the work week followed by rain chances over the weekend as a frontal boundary settles across the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 75 55 79 62 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 81 59 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 77 54 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 75 55 79 61 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 73 46 79 54 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 73 57 77 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1253472 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 526 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 524 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 - Heavy rainfall potential sets up Thursday through the end of the week. - A moderate rip current risk returns for the beaches of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 100 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Zonal flow aloft will gradually shift to a west-southwesterly flow by Thursday evening, with a series of upper level impulses traversing the region through the remainder of the week. A surface high pressure area east of the Mississippi River will gradually weaken through noon Thursday as it shifts eastward, while a low- level inverted trough sets up over the Texas coast into southern Louisiana. An impressive return of precipitable water (PWAT) will occur as we transition from around 0.2 inch PWAT this morning under a strong subsidence inversion, to range from 1.5-1.7 inches by Thursday evening. Slightly higher PWAT values are expected after midnight Thursday through noon Friday as we tap into an atmospheric river extended over the entire western Gulf into the northern Gulf. Likely to categorical precipitation chances (pops) for both Thursday and Friday remain unchanged. These high pops will likely occur on Saturday as well along and southeast of the I-65 corridor. There also remains a signal for modest probabilities for the potential of heavy rain over this period. Appropriately so, the southwestern portion of our forecast area remains in marginal risk of excessive rainfall on Thursday, our entire area is outlooked on Friday, and areas along and southeast of the I-65 corridor is outlooked on Saturday. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2.5 to 3.5 inches are forecast, with locally higher amounts up to 6 inches possible. We will also closely monitor the trajectory of the surface low and attendant warm front/warm sector to determine if a potential exists for more surface based convection and the risk of strong storms. The entire system will exit the area near the end of the weekend, with a dry period returning through the middle of next week. Beach Forecast: A LOW risk of rip currents today through Thursday night will increase to MODERATE on Friday, and is expected to drop back to LOW over the weekend. /22 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 524 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 IFR flight category generally prevails across the region this morning. A return to VFR flight category is anticipated by late morning into the early afternoon hours. Winds remain out of the north around 5 knots, turning northeast late this afternoon into this evening near or less than 5 knots. Isolated to scattered rain showers begin to gradually overspread the area late tonight. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 100 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 No significant impacts to small craft are expected through the remainder of the week outside of locally higher winds/seas and reduced visibilities associated with showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, light north to northeast winds today will shift northeasterly to easterly tonight and gradually increase through Thursday along with building seas. A series of low-level troughs and surface lows will move eastward over the area Thursday afternoon through the remainder of the week, bringing numerous to widespread showers along with embedded thunderstorms. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 57 42 53 45 / 0 40 90 80 Pensacola 58 47 55 50 / 0 30 80 80 Destin 59 47 58 51 / 0 20 70 70 Evergreen 58 37 53 43 / 0 10 80 80 Waynesboro 56 35 48 40 / 0 40 80 90 Camden 53 33 49 40 / 0 10 70 90 Crestview 59 38 53 45 / 0 10 70 80 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1253471 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:30 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 623 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Lingering snow bands should exit the area by daybreak. Drier weather returns for today before an arctic cold front arrives Thursday afternoon that may have a few snow showers and localized snow squalls accompany it. This front will also usher in a much colder airmass going into Thursday night and Friday. A coastal storm tracks well to the south Friday night and Saturday but may bring a bit of light snow to the region. Another cold front moves through Sunday followed by another surge of very cold air Sunday night and Monday. Mainly dry and cold conditions continue into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Key Messages: * Light snow bands early this morning come to an end by ~6 AM * Drier day ahead with high pressure building in following storm`s exit, though temperatures remain below normal Some light snow showers wrapping around over the region as the coastal storm exits off to the ENE should come to an end by sunrise this morning. High pressure then builds in from the SW, setting the stage for a drier, sunnier day, even with some clouds sticking around. Winds diminish significantly from the day prior. High temperatures are still expected to be colder than normal for early December, not climbing out of the mid 30s across the interior and higher elevations. Highs should climb into the low 40s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Key Messages: * Dry and chilly overnight ahead of an arctic cold front * Arctic cold front passes over the region Thursday afternoon/evening, bringing the chance for localized snow squalls and scattered snow showers * Much colder air fills in behind the front Winds tonight remain light with high pressure`s influence as cold air aloft settles over the region as well. 925 mb temps around -2C will support lows in the upper teens and low 20s for much of the region, with temperatures closer to freezing over Cape Cod and the Islands. High pressure exits the region early Thursday ahead of an arctic cold front expected to pass over southern New England during the afternoon Thursday. The latest NAM and GFS snow squall parameters are indicating a low chance for localized snow squalls in the afternoon as this front moves through. Forecast soundings show a very well-mixed environment post-front, but ahead of that also show dry low to mid-levels; the instability is there, but there isn`t much moisture to go with it. So, the chance for snow squalls for southern New England remains low at this time, but they cannot be completely ruled out. Some scattered snow showers with mostly flurries are more likely across the region during this timeframe. Winds will pick up considerably from the NW in the afternoon with gusts approaching ~35 MPH for parts of the interior and close to 30 MPH elsewhere. Temperatures will fall quickly heading into the nighttime hours. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Messages: * Arctic airmass moves in Thu night-Fri bringing very cold temperatures. * Coastal system passing offshore Fri night-Sat. Light wintry precip possible. Minimal impacts expected. Details... Thursday Night and Friday: Thursday night will likely start out on the gusty side with NW winds behind the passage of a strong arctic front. Gusts 20-30 mph are possible for the first half of Thursday night with stronger gusts up to 45 mph possible for the Cape and Islands. Winds gradually trend downward, especially after midnight. The big story for Thursday night will be the cold. Diminishing winds later in the night and minimal cloud cover will support efficient radiational cooling. An arctic airmass with 850mb temperatures -18 to -21C advects into the region overnight, setting up the region for the coldest temperatures so far this season. Temperatures will likely plummet into the single digits for the interior and teens along the coast. Winds chills may make it feel more like negative single digits for the higher terrain and single digits elsewhere overnight. The arctic airmass remains in place for Friday, although 850mb temperature anomaly is slightly moderated from overnight around -9 to -12C. This will support a chilly day with highs running 12-20 degrees below normal. Highs stay in the low to mid 20s for interior southern New England and other areas struggling to reach 30. Cape/Islands and south coast may end up a bit more moderated in the low 30s. Friday Night & Weekend: Ensemble guidance shows a consensus for a transition to a more active pattern heading into the weekend with a few weak waves moving through mainly zonal flow aloft. A weak shortwave trough moves through the flow with a coastal low tracking offshore Friday night into Saturday. There is a consensus among guidance that the best moisture stays to the south of the region with the well offshore track of the low. However, ensemble means indicate that the system should brush close enough to bring light QPF amounts across SE and E southern New England. Details are still lower confidence this far out (timing, amounts) which will depend on the strength, moisture, and track of the low. Overall a few snow showers are possible overnight and rain/snow showers possible for Saturday. This is appearing to likely be a light event with minor snow accumulations (< 1.0") and low QPF overall (< 0.25" liquid). Temperatures moderate more on Saturday with highs in the 30s and low 40s for the Cape/Islands. Another weak system moves through with an accompanying cold front Sunday. This will bring another round of arctic air to southern New England. High temperatures likely fall back into the 20s and low 30s. Confidence decreases in the details of the pattern toward mid- week with potential for a few weak disturbances in flow which could bring periodic chances for light precipitation. Temperatures lean below normal. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12Z update... Today...High Confidence. Most terminals improve to VFR by 13Z. Cape/Islands will likely hold onto the lower ceilings a little longer before improving to VFR 14-18Z. NW winds with gusts up to 25 kts (up to 30 kts for Cape/Islands) in the morning decreasing in the afternoon. Winds shift WSW after 21Z. Tonight...High Confidence. VFR. Light SW winds. Thursday...High Confidence. VFR. Winds become more WNW and notably increase as an arctic cold front arrives. Sustained winds 15-20 kts possible with gusts 25-30 kts (up to 35 occasionally for the Cape and Islands) in the afternoon into the evening hours. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Friday: VFR. Breezy. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN. Saturday: VFR. Chance RA, slight chance SN. Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Thursday...High confidence. Weak high pressure is expected to build in briefly to our SW today, allowing winds to diminish as seas also decrease. However, they will remain just elevated enough to warrant Small Craft Advisories. Winds and seas may drop below Small Craft Advisory criteria tonight, but gusty W to NW winds will redevelop going into Thursday as the next cold front arrives. Winds and seas could approach Gale Warning criteria Thursday afternoon post-front, so a Gale Watch for the outer waters, Nantucket Sound, and Cape Cod Bay has been hoisted. Higher astro tides will favor a low risk for some very minor coastal flooding and splashover this morning for the eastern MA coastline with NW winds, so a Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect through this morning`s high tide. Guidance still favors the highest risk being south of Boston. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of snow. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain, slight chance of snow. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for CTZ002>004. MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MAZ005- 006-010>012. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for MAZ002>004-008-009-026. RI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for RIZ001. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ230. Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ231-232-250- 251-254-255. Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for ANZ231-232-250-251-254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ233>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ236. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ256. && $$ |
| #1253470 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 603 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure prevails today through Thursday bringing dry and cool weather for the middle of the week. A low pressure system tracks across the region Friday into Friday night with a potential for light snow or a light wintry mix across portions of the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 315 AM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - Below average temperatures with sunny and dry conditions are expected today. - Mostly clear and chilly tonight. 987mb low pressure is centered E of Cape Cod early this morning with a trailing cold front now well offshore of the Mid- Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, 1022m high pressure is centered over the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South. Aloft, a potent shortwave trough is offshore of the New England coast, with a flattened ridge in its wake across the central/E-central CONUS, which is ahead of a trough over the Intermountain West. A drier airmass has overspread the region early this morning as high pressure builds in from the W. Temperatures range from the upper 20s/lower 30s across the Piedmont, to the upper 30s/lower 40s along the coast where a NW wind is gusting to 15-20 mph. High pressure continues to build in from the W today. Mostly sunny and cool today with high temperatures in the mid 40s, which are ~10F below seasonal averages. The wind is expected to diminish this afternoon as the high moves into the area. High pressure remains centered in vicinity of the coast tonight. Mostly clear, calm, and chilly with lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - Dry weather continues Thursday and Thursday night. - There is increasing potential for light snow and a wintry mix Friday into Friday night. High pressure slides offshore Thursday resulting in moderating temperatures, but still slightly below seasonal averages. Forecast highs range from the mid/upper 40s N to the lower 50s S with increasing cirrus clouds. A dry cold front drops through the area later Thursday afternoon and evening with 1028-1030mb high pressure building to the N Thursday night into early Friday. Low temperatures once again drop into the mid 20s to lower 30s, with lower 20s possible across the N if enough clearing occurs. The airmass behind this front is rather cold locally for the first week of December, and dry with dewpoints potentially dropping to 15-20F across the NW by early Friday. High pressure gradually retreats to the NE Friday with the cold front becoming stationary well S of the local area. The flow aloft will generally be zonal to begin the day, but will amplify to some extent as a trough digs into the upper Midwest. A powerful upper jet upwards of 175kt is progged to extend from the northern Mid-Atlantic to southern New England. A wave of low pressure is expected to develop along the stationary front Friday beneath the RRQ of the upper jet with some assistance from a sheared shortwave trough from 700-500mb. There is increasing potential for a period of snow transitioning to a wintry mix or rain Friday across most of the area, remaining wintry longer to the NW, and mainly rain for far SE VA and most of NE NC. The 00z/03 EPS and EC AIFS each depict 50-80% of >1" of snow for most of the area (assuming a 10:1 ratio and idealized accumulation), with probs dropping sharply for >3". The 00z/03 GEFS remains lower, but has trended up to 30-50% through 12z/7 AM Saturday. As moisture shallows Friday night precipitation could change to light freezing rain from central VA to the Piedmont where a light ice accretion is possible. Temperatures will potentially be quite cold for early December during the day Friday. The EPS/GEFS show 2m temperatures roughly 15- 20F below average at 18z Friday (especially inland), which could result in high temperatures struggling to get out of the lower 30s, with some colder guidance showing temperatures remaining in the upper 20s over the Piedmont. Below average, but not as cold for far SE VA and coastal NE NC. Lows Friday night area forecast to range from the mid/upper 20s NW to the upper 30s/around 40F SE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 315 AM EST Wednesday... - Below average temperatures continue this weekend and early next week. - Mainly dry aside from a secondary low pressure system potentially clipping the coast Sunday night and early Monday. The 00z/03 EPS and GEFS show PW values falling below normal Saturday into Sunday, so generally dry conditions are favored despite the NBM trying to hold on to low PoPs Saturday into Saturday night. An upper trough and cold front push across the region Sunday night into early Monday with a wave of low pressure potentially developing offshore of the Southeast coast. Most guidance is generally dry locally, with the more amplified 00z/03 GFS being an outlier at this time. Below normal temperatures are favored this weekend into early next week, with the aforementioned cold front reinforcing colder air Monday and Tuesday. A moderating trend toward seasonal averages in possible by the middle of next week with dry conditions favored. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 600 AM EST Wednesday... High pressure is building in from the W as of 12z in the wake of low pressure and a cold front. Primarily VFR under a mostly clear sky with a NW wind of 8-12kt, with occasional gusts approaching 20kt. However, there are some bands of SC along the coast with patchy MVFR cigs ~3kft. VFR conditions are expected to prevail today into tonight, aside from occasional BKN MVFR cigs at ORF through ~15z, with generally a clear/sunny sky. The wind will remain NW 8-12kt through mid-aftn, before diminishing and shifting to W/SW. By tonight, the wind will be calm to very light. VFR conditions continue Thursday as high pressure remains over the region. A low pressure system will bring the potential for degraded flight conditions Friday into Friday night with potentially snow turning to a wintry mix for the northern terminals and mainly rain for the southeastern terminals. Drier conditions return by Saturday and Sunday. && .MARINE... As of 230 AM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect into the morning hours as winds begin to subside. - Another round of elevated winds is expected late Thursday into Friday. Early morning surface analysis shows the low pressure system that developed off our coast yesterday now located just offshore of Cape Cod with its trailing cold front also offshore. The departure of this system allowed for colder, drier air to rush into our local area causing increased northwesterly winds. As of this writing, winds continue to come down a bit, but are still well within SCA criteria at 18-24kt with gusts up to 25-30kt. Waves in the Bay are 2- 4ft with seas reaching 4-6ft, with some 7-8ft across the south. Thus, the SCAs will remain in place for the rivers and Sound until 7am, the Bay until 10am, and the coastal waters until noon due to lingering seas of 5+ ft. High pressure will build in overhead this morning allowing winds to continue to decrease and become 10kt or less this afternoon and into the overnight hours. Seas and waves will decrease as well to 2-4ft and 1-2ft respectively. A dry cold front will push through the Mid-Atlantic during the day on Thursday turning winds out of the north/northwest and increasing speeds once again. Guidance indicates SCAs will be likely for the Bay Thursday afternoon into the early overnight hours of Friday. Confidence in SCA wind speeds is less for the coastal waters, though some 5ft seas may build back in. Some variability in model solutions remains regarding the next weather system on Friday. Another surface low may develop off the coast, which could have impacts to our waters depending on the track/timing. Stay tuned to future forecast updates for more info. We may stay in a more active weather pattern for the weekend and beyond as well. This could bring more frequent periods of elevated winds. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ633- 635>638. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ |
| #1253469 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 452 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure will return through Thursday. A weak backdoor cold front will drop through late Thursday. Waves of low pressure will develop along this lingering front, bringing clouds and periods of rain from Friday into the weekend. Mostly dry conditions may return early next week. && .UPDATE... Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs. Otherwise, no significant changes to the public/marine forecasts. Watching the tides which may reach minor coastal flood thresholds during the upcoming high tide, especially in SC, but confidence is too low to put out an Advisory. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS: *Hazards: Dense fog possible tonight *Rain Chances: None *Temps: Below normal *Confidence: Moderate to High Details: High pressure will prevail with dry weather and below normal temperatures expected. Main concern is the risk for dense fog tonight given pretty decent radiational cooling conditions and the wet ground from recent rainfall, although it could just be shallow and not cause significant visibility reductions. Highs today mainly around 50 degrees with sub-freezing temperatures into the upper 20s likely tonight away from the milder coastal areas. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Dry and slightly warmer Thursday as high clouds start to build in through the day ahead of moisture from the SW. A weak backdoor front will drop through Thursday night and the increased flow between high pressure over the Midwestern states and low pressure near the Gulf will push more moisture to the east over our area. This will make light rain possible late Thursday night. Rain chances will continue to expand over the area from west to east through Friday and Friday night due to influence from a nearby low off the SE coast. Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.5" are possible but there is still uncertainty due to the nature of the frontal system. Highs will drop Thursday to Friday with the frontal passage by ~10 degrees, and lows will remain in the mid to upper 30s. The colder areas to our north could see wintry precip but for now we remain firmly in rain territory. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Solid rain chances could linger through Saturday and Saturday night as the frontal system continues offshore but a stalled front remains nearby. Rain chances should start to really abate through Sunday before another, drier frontal passage drops through Monday with low rain chances mostly near the coast and offshore. Dry conditions should return for Tuesday and Wednesday though there are hints that the pattern may become wet again towards the end of the period. The coldest night looks to be Monday night but otherwise highs will be in or near the 50s so not much change there. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 12Z TAFs: Moderate to high confidence thru about 06Z, then low to moderate confidence. Despite surface high pressure building in, mid-level energy will be moving through keeping a few patches of low clouds around the area today (mainly SE of KLBT thru about 00Z) with a very low risk for MVFR cigs, and even lower but non-zero risk for IFR cigs. Decent radiational cooling conditions tonight along with the lingering low-level moisture and wet ground from recent rainfall should support fog starting around 06Z, initially at KLBT and then spreading SE toward the coast. LIFR/VLIFR vsbys are possible, although the fog may be shallow enough in nature to not impact vsbys too much so confidence is lower regarding impacts. Thus, will only introduce MVFR vsbys for now. Extended Outlook...VFR to prevail through Thursday night outside of possible dense fog late tonight. Another storm system will likely bring restrictions starting as early as Friday but more likely starting Friday night. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...High confidence this period. High pressure will build into the area with improving marine conditions as the pressure gradient slackens. Thursday through Monday...Offshore flow ~10 kts will become NE ~15 kts as a cold front pushes through Thursday night/Friday morning. N to NE winds will then linger through the rest of the period 10-15 kts with in increase to 15-20 kts Monday due to a passing frontal system. Seas 2-3 ft with 4 footers possible Monday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1253468 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:18 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 413 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Some areas of fog may develop over local waters early this morning, and some of this fog may cross the island chain. -Light to gentle breezes will veer from northerlies to north to northeasterlies. Freshening breezes are expected Thursday and Friday with a peak of moderate easterly breezes. -The next opportunity for an unsettled pattern looks to occur sometime over the Sunday and Monday timeframe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 412 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 December is here at last, which includes chaotic winter weather patterns across the United States. Over the Florida Keys, this takes the shape of cold frontal passages, veering winds, and even occasional early morning fog. GOES East nighttime microphysics observations north of the island chain highlight fractured stratus clouds along Lake Okeechobee and stretching into the Gulf. Those clouds indicate a cold front meandering towards the Florida Keys. However, that frontal system is still at least half a day out. Winds early this morning across the island chain are light and variable. Radiational cooling is allowing temperatures to fall into the lower 70s across the CWA, and sensors on larger islands are measuring lows in the upper 60s. Dew points continue to linger in the upper 70s. Early morning radiation fog is a concern for Keys residents, but the threat does not end with sunrise. Environmental conditions do support a potential fog event for the Bayside waters and the island chain. Relative to 400 AM, the fog layer has not formed, but fog develops very quickly over the Keys. Brace for vehicles to be drenched in condensation this morning. In the short term, conditions along the island chain will be close to persistence. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal through the week. Increasing dew points indicate the weather will remain very muggy. Winds are the shifting variable; expect to see winds freshen tomorrow and veer northeasterly. However, this pattern will not last. High pressure will set up over the southeastern CONUS during the second half of the work week. In the northern half of the country, a polar vortex located over Canada`s maritime provinces will help fuel a parade of `clipper` lows along the Canadian border into the Great Lakes. While this occurs, a shortwave trough over the Four Corners will slowly make its way across the continental divide towards the Plains. All these patterns become relevant for the Florida Keys by the end of the week when the shortwave trough develops a distinct surface low along the Gulf coast. For the Keys, winds over the coastal waters are forecast to continue veering to southeasterly. Dew points may rise to the mid 70s across the island chain before a cold front sweeps towards the CWA early next week. Keep in mind, this is about five to six days out and statistical guidance may change. What matters the most at this time is that breezy or windy conditions are not anticipated within the next seven days. && .MARINE... Issued at 412 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a cold frontal system extending from Cape Hatteras to the middle of the Gulf will meander across the Florida Keys today and tonight. Areas of patchy fog may develop early this morning over the bayside waters. Breezes will veer northeasterly and freshen tonight and Thursday. High pressure building over the Ohio Valley will cause winds to veer southeasterly and slacken over the weekend. Another frontal passage is possible towards the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 412 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Light northwesterly breezes and moist conditions early this morning may allow for the formation or advection of patchy fog near the island chain. While more likely at MTH, this may cause bouts of IFR or worse VIS and CIGs at either terminal for a couple hours. Fog is not currently observed in our area so have opted to keep impacts in the TAFs lighter until it maybe forms. If this does come to pass, any sign of fog is expected to dissipate within a few hours following sunrise. Afterward, VFR conditions are expected to prevail with near surface winds turning to the north at 5 to 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day In 2018, the daily record warm low temperature of 80F was recorded at Key West International Airport. Temperature data for Key West dates back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 80 70 81 73 / 0 0 0 10 Marathon 80 71 80 73 / 0 0 0 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1253467 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:09 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 502 AM AST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 425 AM AST Wed Dec 3 2025 * The north and east-facing beaches in PR and the US Virgin Islands have a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents today and through much of the forecast period. * We have a slight risk of thunderstorms, especially in the interior and western PR, this afternoon. * The US Virgin Islands can expect a slight to moderate chance of occasional periods of moderate to heavy rain, with impacts limited to ponding of water in roads and poorly drained areas. && .Short Term(Today through Friday)... Issued at 425 AM AST Wed Dec 3 2025 Calm weather prevailed across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with mostly clear skies over land and isolated brief showers mainly over the surrounding waters. A few of these showers filtered into eastern Puerto Rico, but they produced little to no measurable rainfall and resulted in no significant impacts. Temperatures settled into the 60s over the higher elevations and the 70s along the coasts, while winds remained light and variable. From today into Thursday, weather conditions are expected to be variable. Lingering moisture from a departing surface trough will allow scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon hours across interior and western Puerto Rico. Impacts should be minor, with brief ponding of water on roadways or in poorly drained urban areas. Therefore, flooding and lightning risks will be limited or remain low today. On Thursday, an approaching easterly disturbance may bring an increase in surface to mid-level moisture, though the deepest plume is likely to stay south of the islands. Due to this proximity, we anticipate a slightly higher chance for showers, with the probability of widespread thunderstorms staying low. Overall, Thursday is still favored to be the most active day in the short-term period, though impacts should remain under the limited threshold risk criteria. By Friday, conditions are likely to become more stable as a mid- to upper-level ridge builds from the west and displaces the trough aloft. Drier air and a more suppressed pattern should lead to fewer showers and lower chances for flooding or other hazards. If current trends continue, the likelihood of impactful weather by the end of the week remains significantly low. && .Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)... Issued at 425 AM AST Wed Dec 3 2025 The 250-mb heights are at the 75th percentile of the December climatology, indicating a strong mid- to upper-level ridge. Model guidance agrees that this ridge will build and persist over the Northeast Caribbean, leading to a substantial trade wind inversion and subsidence caused by a denser, drier air mass located primarily above 850 mb. Additionally, temperatures at 500 mb are above normal (warmer than normal), also around the 75th percentile. At the same time, the low-level lapse rates remain relatively stable, falling below the 25th percentile and even below -2 standard deviations. These factors indicate a stable trend that is expected to dominate the local region over the long term. Based on this information, both threats, the threat for thunderstorm formation and flooding rain, were assigned to none for the long-term period. Under the described weather pattern, there is a likelihood of having an advective pattern. As a result, there is a high chance (60-80%) that residents and visitors in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands can expect pleasant temperatures, with a mix of sunshine and clouds each day. However, this advective pattern will also bring a low (10-20%) to moderate (30-50%) chance of occasional passing showers, leading to brief periods of moderate to locally heavy rain in portions of the windward areas of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Additionally, there is a low to moderate chance of afternoon convection developing across the interior and western parts of Puerto Rico each day; however, current forecasts do not indicate a flooding threat at this time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 425 AM AST Wed Dec 3 2025 All TAF sites should experience VFR conditions. Brief periods of MVFR are possible after 17Z at TJBQ and TJPS due to shower and thunderstorm activity. Winds will remain between 5 to 13kts from the E-NE, with occasional higher gusts near any stronger shower activity. && .MARINE... Issued at 425 AM AST Wed Dec 3 2025 Winds will become gentle to moderate from the east to southeast as the surface trough moves westward near the region. Afternoon thunderstorms will form the next few days due to the proximity of the trough. A small easterly swell will spread across the local waters through Thursday, small craft operators should exercise caution across the offshore Atlantic waters due to seas up to 6 feet. Additionally, a surface high pressure across the Central Atlantic will promote the return of the moderate to locally fresh east to northeast winds the second part of the week. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 425 AM AST Wed Dec 3 2025 A small easterly swell will promote a moderate risk of rip currents along the north and east facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, and across the U.S. Virgin Islands. These conditions will persist most of the week due to the small easterly to northeasterly swell and increasing winds from Thursday onward. A moderate risk means that life-threatening rip currents are possible and can quickly pull swimmers away from shore. Even where the risk is lower, rip currents can still form near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. Visitors and residents are strongly encouraged to swim near a lifeguard and remain aware of changing conditions. There is a slight risk of thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon hours, across northwest Puerto Rico. This activity could move across coastal areas at times, increasing the risk of lightning strikes. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1253466 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:33 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 319 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure prevails today through Thursday bringing dry and cool weather for the middle of the week. A low pressure system tracks across the region Friday into Friday night with a potential for light snow or a light wintry mix across portions of the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 315 AM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - Below average temperatures with sunny and dry conditions are expected today. - Mostly clear and chilly tonight. 987mb low pressure is centered E of Cape Cod early this morning with a trailing cold front now well offshore of the Mid- Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, 1022m high pressure is centered over the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South. Aloft, a potent shortwave trough is offshore of the New England coast, with a flattened ridge in its wake across the central/E-central CONUS, which is ahead of a trough over the Intermountain West. A drier airmass has overspread the region early this morning as high pressure builds in from the W. Temperatures range from the upper 20s/lower 30s across the Piedmont, to the upper 30s/lower 40s along the coast where a NW wind is gusting to 15-20 mph. High pressure continues to build in from the W today. Mostly sunny and cool today with high temperatures in the mid 40s, which are ~10F below seasonal averages. The wind is expected to diminish this afternoon as the high moves into the area. High pressure remains centered in vicinity of the coast tonight. Mostly clear, calm, and chilly with lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - Dry weather continues Thursday and Thursday night. - There is increasing potential for light snow and a wintry mix Friday into Friday night. High pressure slides offshore Thursday resulting in moderating temperatures, but still slightly below seasonal averages. Forecast highs range from the mid/upper 40s N to the lower 50s S with increasing cirrus clouds. A dry cold front drops through the area later Thursday afternoon and evening with 1028-1030mb high pressure building to the N Thursday night into early Friday. Low temperatures once again drop into the mid 20s to lower 30s, with lower 20s possible across the N if enough clearing occurs. The airmass behind this front is rather cold locally for the first week of December, and dry with dewpoints potentially dropping to 15-20F across the NW by early Friday. High pressure gradually retreats to the NE Friday with the cold front becoming stationary well S of the local area. The flow aloft will generally be zonal to begin the day, but will amplify to some extent as a trough digs into the upper Midwest. A powerful upper jet upwards of 175kt is progged to extend from the northern Mid-Atlantic to southern New England. A wave of low pressure is expected to develop along the stationary front Friday beneath the RRQ of the upper jet with some assistance from a sheared shortwave trough from 700-500mb. There is increasing potential for a period of snow transitioning to a wintry mix or rain Friday across most of the area, remaining wintry longer to the NW, and mainly rain for far SE VA and most of NE NC. The 00z/03 EPS and EC AIFS each depict 50-80% of >1" of snow for most of the area (assuming a 10:1 ratio and idealized accumulation), with probs dropping sharply for >3". The 00z/03 GEFS remains lower, but has trended up to 30-50% through 12z/7 AM Saturday. As moisture shallows Friday night precipitation could change to light freezing rain from central VA to the Piedmont where a light ice accretion is possible. Temperatures will potentially be quite cold for early December during the day Friday. The EPS/GEFS show 2m temperatures roughly 15- 20F below average at 18z Friday (especially inland), which could result in high temperatures struggling to get out of the lower 30s, with some colder guidance showing temperatures remaining in the upper 20s over the Piedmont. Below average, but not as cold for far SE VA and coastal NE NC. Lows Friday night area forecast to range from the mid/upper 20s NW to the upper 30s/around 40F SE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 315 AM EST Wednesday... - Below average temperatures continue this weekend and early next week. - Mainly dry aside from a secondary low pressure system potentially clipping the coast Sunday night and early Monday. The 00z/03 EPS and GEFS show PW values falling below normal Saturday into Sunday, so generally dry conditions are favored despite the NBM trying to hold on to low PoPs Saturday into Saturday night. An upper trough and cold front push across the region Sunday night into early Monday with a wave of low pressure potentially developing offshore of the Southeast coast. Most guidance is generally dry locally, with the more amplified 00z/03 GFS being an outlier at this time. Below normal temperatures are favored this weekend into early next week, with the aforementioned cold front reinforcing colder air Monday and Tuesday. A moderating trend toward seasonal averages in possible by the middle of next week with dry conditions favored. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1255 AM EST Wednesday... High pressure is building in from the W as of 06z in the wake of low pressure and a cold front. VFR under a mostly clear sky with a NW wind of 8-12kt, with occasional gusts approaching 20kt. VFR conditions are expected to prevail today into tonight with generally clear/sunny sky aside from some patchy SC toward the coast. The wind will remain NW 8-12kt through mid-aftn, before diminishing and shifting to W/SW. By tonight, the wind will be calm to very light. VFR conditions continue Thursday as high pressure remains over the region. A low pressure system will bring the potential for degraded flight conditions Friday into Friday night with potentially snow turning to a wintry mix for the northern terminals and mainly rain for the southeastern terminals. Drier conditions return by Saturday and Sunday. && .MARINE... As of 230 AM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect into the morning hours as winds begin to subside. - Another round of elevated winds is expected late Thursday into Friday. Early morning surface analysis shows the low pressure system that developed off our coast yesterday now located just offshore of Cape Cod with its trailing cold front also offshore. The departure of this system allowed for colder, drier air to rush into our local area causing increased northwesterly winds. As of this writing, winds continue to come down a bit, but are still well within SCA criteria at 18-24kt with gusts up to 25-30kt. Waves in the Bay are 2- 4ft with seas reaching 4-6ft, with some 7-8ft across the south. Thus, the SCAs will remain in place for the rivers and Sound until 7am, the Bay until 10am, and the coastal waters until noon due to lingering seas of 5+ ft. High pressure will build in overhead this morning allowing winds to continue to decrease and become 10kt or less this afternoon and into the overnight hours. Seas and waves will decrease as well to 2-4ft and 1-2ft respectively. A dry cold front will push through the Mid-Atlantic during the day on Thursday turning winds out of the north/northwest and increasing speeds once again. Guidance indicates SCAs will be likely for the Bay Thursday afternoon into the early overnight hours of Friday. Confidence in SCA wind speeds is less for the coastal waters, though some 5ft seas may build back in. Some variability in model solutions remains regarding the next weather system on Friday. Another surface low may develop off the coast, which could have impacts to our waters depending on the track/timing. Stay tuned to future forecast updates for more info. We may stay in a more active weather pattern for the weekend and beyond as well. This could bring more frequent periods of elevated winds. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ633- 635>638. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ |
| #1253465 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:57 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 253 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail today before another frontal system impacts the area Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The forecast area will remain between a departing cold front over the western Atlantic and high pressure centered over the southern Appalachians today. This morning, high resolution guidance indicates that an sfc trough or weak backdoor cold front will reach the SC Lowcountry during the pre-dawn hours. This feature may push south, slowing or becoming stationary near the Savannah River by late this morning. Based on satellite trends, cloud cover should decrease across the SC Lowcountry north of the sfc trough. However, linger stratus south of the trough and the arrival of afternoon cirrus may keep the sky across SE GA mostly to partly cloudy through the day. Using a blend of guidance, high temperatures are forecast to range in the mid to upper 50s. Tonight, the center of high pressure will build across the CWA. As a result, winds across the forecast area should become calm inland this evening, with little to no wind expected across the coastal counties late tonight. Given the recent soaking rainfall, the combination of wet soil and calm winds, there is potential for at least ground fog by dawn Thursday morning. However, high clouds sourced from a southern stream system may stream across the region tonight, limiting the potential for mentionable fog. Low temperatures may range from freezing inland to the mid to upper 30s across the coastal counties. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Thursday: High pressure will quickly loose cohesion in the morning as ageostrophic convergence quickly turns neutral as a potent mid- level wave moves east over the Hudson Bay. 850/ 500 mb flow also is westerly with a mid-level low over the Baja of California. There are some hints that pieces of PV will advect east Thursday bringing a chance of precipitation to interior GA. The main limiting factor appears to be low level saturation. Latest model guidance and ensemble suites are faster with the overall progression of the shortwave than this time yesterday though. Therefore, chance PoPs are now in the forecast Thursday afternoon for interior GA. Expect temperatures below normal for this time of year. Friday and Saturday: Ensemble members have come into better agreement today with the overall synoptic pattern and resultant sensible weather at the surface. The mid-level low over the Baja of California is now forecast to quasi- wave break and slow down the overall group velocity of the long wave trough. However, the phase velocity of individual wave packets diving southeast out of the Colorado Rockies actually increases in speed with long wave trough amplification remaining. The means Friday looks wet as multiple rounds of PV advect over the region and a weak coastal low forms. The coastal low will then move northeast off the coast of SC and GA. Another shortwave will then move overhead Saturday with the best forcing for ascent (from a RRQ of an upper level jet, PVA and WAA) being from the Panhandle of FL across GA and coastal SC. Precipitation totals Friday through Saturday night are now forecast to be in the 1" - 2" range. One final note on ensemble agreement. The past two days, model agreement has remained rather poor due to the potential of a cut off low near the Baja of California. WPC cluster analysis from the 02.12z guidance now shows all ensemble members indicating rain on both Friday and Saturday. This agreement is rather impressive considering yesterdays guidance split, and caution is advised on the seeming model agreement (the WPC Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis still shows a majority of model variance coming from the Baja of California and Hudson Bay lows on Friday). && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Precipitation could linger across the area on Sunday as the primary mid-level wave from the Colorado Rockies finally moves east. A cold front will then push through the region bringing an end to the precipitation. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday fall well below normal with freezing temperatures possible Monday night and Tuesday night. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Prior to the 6Z TAFs, nighttime microphysics indicated a large area of MVFR ceilings across the terminals. The restrictive ceilings should remain until a sfc trough or weak backdoor front pushes across KCHS and KJZI around dawn. The passage of the trough will result in light winds to shift from the northeast along with lifting of cloud bases. Based on satellite trends, conditions over KCHS and KJZI are forecast to improve to VFR by 14Z. The sfc trough may push south, slowing or becoming stationary near the Savannah River by late this morning. As a result, MVFR ceilings over KSAV may linger until early this afternoon. Also, winds at KSAV may remain from the northwest through the TAF period. Extended Aviation Outlook: Thursday: VFR. Friday and Saturday: Cloud bases will lower early Friday and reach IFR conditions. IFR/ MVFR conditions are then forecast to continue through Saturday. Widespread rainfall is likely, but forecast soundings indicate no thunder as TAF sites remain on the cool side of a coastal front. Sunday: IFR conditions slowly recovering to VFR as a cold front moves through the region. Precipitation will also come to an end with winds out of the north/ northwest. && .MARINE... Today and tonight: No concerns across the marine zones. The pressure pattern will support generally northwest winds around 10 kts. Seas will remain between 2 to 3 ft. Thursday: Northwest winds veering from the north 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. No precipitation or marine headlines are forecast. Friday and Saturday: Winds will veer from the northeast 10 to 15 kt. Widespread showers and possibly a thunderstorm expected Friday and Saturday as a coastal low moves northeast. Expect seas 2 to 4 ft. Sunday: A cold front will cross the waters Sunday with winds out of the north 10 to 15 kt. Precipitation will come to an end during the day. Expect seas 2 to 4 ft. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A weak sfc trough or backdoor cold front has slid across the harbor. Northeast winds should continue through the 5:52 AM high tide this morning. Departures may gradually increase as high tide approaches, resulting in minor coastal flooding. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for coastal Colleton and Charleston counties until 8 AM. Astronomical tides will continue to rise with the morning high tide cycles through Friday and remain elevated through the weekend. Coastal Flood Advisories will likely be needed for morning high tide cycles, primarily at Charleston Harbor (Charleston and Coastal Colleton counties) through Saturday morning. Friday, astronomical high tides peak (6.8 ft MLLW at Charleston Harbor and 8.86 ft MLLW at Fort Pulaski) and this is when winds are forecast to turn from the northeast. Overall, this type of setup can over perform given the building anomalies from the northeast winds. Currently, moderate coastal flooding is forecast at Charleston Harbor and minor coastal flooding is forecast at Fort Pulaski. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for SCZ049- 050. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1253464 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:42 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 241 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Lingering snow bands should exit the area by daybreak. Drier weather returns for today before an arctic cold front arrives Thursday afternoon that may have a few snow showers and localized snow squalls accompany it. This front will also usher in a much colder airmass going into Thursday night and Friday. A coastal storm tracks well to the south Friday night and Saturday but may bring a bit of light snow to the region. Another cold front moves through Sunday followed by another surge of very cold air Sunday night and Monday. Mainly dry and cold conditions continue into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Key Messages: * Light snow bands early this morning come to an end by ~6 AM * Drier day ahead with high pressure building in following storm`s exit, though temperatures remain below normal Some light snow showers wrapping around over the region as the coastal storm exits off to the ENE should come to an end by sunrise this morning. High pressure then builds in from the SW, setting the stage for a drier, sunnier day, even with some clouds sticking around. Winds diminish significantly from the day prior. High temperatures are still expected to be colder than normal for early December, not climbing out of the mid 30s across the interior and higher elevations. Highs should climb into the low 40s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Key Messages: * Dry and chilly overnight ahead of an arctic cold front * Arctic cold front passes over the region Thursday afternoon/evening, bringing the chance for localized snow squalls and scattered snow showers * Much colder air fills in behind the front Winds tonight remain light with high pressure`s influence as cold air aloft settles over the region as well. 925 mb temps around -2C will support lows in the upper teens and low 20s for much of the region, with temperatures closer to freezing over Cape Cod and the Islands. High pressure exits the region early Thursday ahead of an arctic cold front expected to pass over southern New England during the afternoon Thursday. The latest NAM and GFS snow squall parameters are indicating a low chance for localized snow squalls in the afternoon as this front moves through. Forecast soundings show a very well-mixed environment post-front, but ahead of that also show dry low to mid-levels; the instability is there, but there isn`t much moisture to go with it. So, the chance for snow squalls for southern New England remains low at this time, but they cannot be completely ruled out. Some scattered snow showers with mostly flurries are more likely across the region during this timeframe. Winds will pick up considerably from the NW in the afternoon with gusts approaching ~35 MPH for parts of the interior and close to 30 MPH elsewhere. Temperatures will fall quickly heading into the nighttime hours. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Messages: * Arctic airmass moves in Thu night-Fri bringing very cold temperatures. * Coastal system passing offshore Fri night-Sat. Light wintry precip possible. Minimal impacts expected. Details... Thursday Night and Friday: Thursday night will likely start out on the gusty side with NW winds behind the passage of a strong arctic front. Gusts 20-30 mph are possible for the first half of Thursday night with stronger gusts up to 45 mph possible for the Cape and Islands. Winds gradually trend downward, especially after midnight. The big story for Thursday night will be the cold. Diminishing winds later in the night and minimal cloud cover will support efficient radiational cooling. An arctic airmass with 850mb temperatures -18 to -21C advects into the region overnight, setting up the region for the coldest temperatures so far this season. Temperatures will likely plummet into the single digits for the interior and teens along the coast. Winds chills may make it feel more like negative single digits for the higher terrain and single digits elsewhere overnight. The arctic airmass remains in place for Friday, although 850mb temperature anomaly is slightly moderated from overnight around -9 to -12C. This will support a chilly day with highs running 12-20 degrees below normal. Highs stay in the low to mid 20s for interior southern New England and other areas struggling to reach 30. Cape/Islands and south coast may end up a bit more moderated in the low 30s. Friday Night & Weekend: Ensemble guidance shows a consensus for a transition to a more active pattern heading into the weekend with a few weak waves moving through mainly zonal flow aloft. A weak shortwave trough moves through the flow with a coastal low tracking offshore Friday night into Saturday. There is a consensus among guidance that the best moisture stays to the south of the region with the well offshore track of the low. However, ensemble means indicate that the system should brush close enough to bring light QPF amounts across SE and E southern New England. Details are still lower confidence this far out (timing, amounts) which will depend on the strength, moisture, and track of the low. Overall a few snow showers are possible overnight and rain/snow showers possible for Saturday. This is appearing to likely be a light event with minor snow accumulations (< 1.0") and low QPF overall (< 0.25" liquid). Temperatures moderate more on Saturday with highs in the 30s and low 40s for the Cape/Islands. Another weak system moves through with an accompanying cold front Sunday. This will bring another round of arctic air to southern New England. High temperatures likely fall back into the 20s and low 30s. Confidence decreases in the details of the pattern toward mid- week with potential for a few weak disturbances in flow which could bring periodic chances for light precipitation. Temperatures lean below normal. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z update... Through 12Z...Moderate confidence (timing of VFR). MVFR-IFR improving toward VFR from west to east 06Z-12Z. Light SN for interior terminals as well as BOS/PVD early this morning, likely exiting by 12Z. Minor accum (Trace-0.5") possible at BOS. Rain showers for Cape/Islands through 12Z. N-NNW winds with gusts to 20-25 kts. 30-40 kt gusts possible for Cape/Islands. Wednesday...High Confidence. Most terminals improve to VFR by 13Z. Cape/Islands will likely hold onto the lower ceilings a little longer before improving to VFR 14-18Z. NW winds with gusts up to 22 kts (up to 25 kts for Cape/Islands) in the morning decreasing in the afternoon. Winds shift WSW after 21Z. Wednesday Night...High Confidence. VFR. Light SW winds. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Light snow early this morning, ending 08-10Z. Conditions improve to VFR 11-13Z. Moderate confidence on timing of VFR. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Friday: VFR. Breezy. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN. Saturday: VFR. Chance RA, slight chance SN. Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Thursday...High confidence. Weak high pressure is expected to build in briefly to our SW today, allowing winds to diminish as seas also decrease. However, they will remain just elevated enough to warrant Small Craft Advisories. Winds and seas may drop below Small Craft Advisory criteria tonight, but gusty W to NW winds will redevelop going into Thursday as the next cold front arrives. Winds and seas could approach Gale Warning criteria Thursday afternoon post-front, so a Gale Watch for the outer waters, Nantucket Sound, and Cape Cod Bay has been hoisted. Higher astro tides will favor a low risk for some very minor coastal flooding and splashover this morning for the eastern MA coastline with NW winds, so a Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect through this morning`s high tide. Guidance still favors the highest risk being south of Boston. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of snow. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain, slight chance of snow. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for CTZ002>004. MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MAZ005- 006-010>012. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for MAZ002>004-008-009-026. RI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for RIZ001. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ230. Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ231-232-250- 251-254-255. Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for ANZ231-232-250-251-254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ233>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ236. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ256. && $$ |
| #1253463 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:33 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 230 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 230 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 - Dry conditions forecast through mid to late week. Cool today, then warming Thursday-Saturday. - Another front late this week or early next week brings the next chances of rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Today-Tonight...A cold front continues to push south through ECFL early this morning. Any convective activity associated has long since ended, but we will likely see low stratus clouds overspread much of the coverage warning area this morning. This low "grunge" may be around for much of the morning, with gradual improvement in cloud ceilings in the afternoon. Some patchy fog cannot be ruled out either. High pressure will build into the southeast U.S. behind the front later today and tonight. The pressure gradient will remain weak with NW/N winds 5-10 mph expected. Later in the afternoon and early evening, wind direction may veer a bit more NNE along the coast. A light northerly component of wind will continue tonight. Conditions remain mainly dry. Highs cooler today with L70s north/west of I-4, and M-U70s southward - possibly around 80F across Martin and southern St. Lucie counties. Much cooler tonight with forecast mins in the U40s to around 50F north/west of I-4 with L-M 50s most everywhere else, except U50s to L60s immediate Space/Treasure coasts. Thu-Fri...Surface high pressure weakens, though conditions remain dry thru the period. Winds veer NE/ENE 5-10 mph, but we may see a degree of variability for surface winds across the ECFL interior on Thu. Light winds Thu night, then light southerly winds developing into Fri. The next potential low pressure system will develop across the western Gulf with low pressure tracking across the northern Gulf late Thu/Fri. This should drag the next front into the FL Panhandle by sunrise Sat morning as increasing moisture pools ahead of and along this next system. Gradual warming trend Thu/Fri with maxes in the L-M70s across the I- 4 corridor and M-U70s southward - perhaps some 80 degree readings near Lake Okee. Near 80F to L80s prevail Fri and perhaps a few M80s surrounding Lake Okee. For mins, slightly warmer Thu night/Fri morning with M-U50s most everywhere, except L60s closer towards the coast - M60s for barrier islands. Generally L-M 60s areawide Fri overnight/Sat morning. Sat-Tue...The next front remains north of ECFL thru Sat, but does make some gradual movement southward Sat night towards the central FL peninsula. Moisture (PWATs 1.75-2.00") will continue to pool along and out ahead of the boundary. Both the GFS/ECMWF seemingly bring the boundary thru the area on Sun and into the southern peninsula Sun night into early Mon. We keep SCT (30-50%) showers in the forecast near Orlando northward during the day on Sat and Vero Beach northward Sat night (ISOLD, 10-24%, elsewhere). This system is slow to sag thru the area and we have PoPs 50% areawide on Sun and 25-40% Sun night. There will also be an ISOLD threat of thunder this weekend. Moisture is a bit slow to scour out southward on Mon and a 15-30pct shower chance will be possible south of Orlando for this day. High pressure gradually settles in behind this latest weather system with mainly dry conditions areawide Mon night-Tue night. Highs remain above normal in the U70s/L80s (few M80s southward) for Sat (pre-frontal). Maxes in the 70s Melbourne northward on Sun with near 80F to L80s southward. Cooler yet on Mon/Tue (post-frontal) in the U60s to around 70F across I-4 with L70s southward - possible M70s for Martin County. Lows in the 60s areawide Sat night/Sun morning, and generally 50s to L60s for Sun night/Mon morning. A reinforcing "Clipper" front will push down the area late on Mon driving overnight mins for Mon night/Tue morning into the M-U40s to around 50F for much of the interior and Volusia coast with L-M 50s southward along the Space/Treasure coasts, except U50s for coastal Martin County. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Today-Tonight...Developing post-frontal conditions as high pressure builds in from the NW, with relaxing pressure gradient, and NW/N winds 7-11 kts. Seas subsiding to 2-3 ft near shore and 3-4 ft offshore thru the period. Conditions mainly dry. Thu-Sun...A developing long period ERLY swell ~10 seconds. Winds and seas become favorable from mid-late week as northerly (~ 10 kts) winds early on Thu begin to veer more onshore through the day and becoming southerly thru Fri and S/SW Fri night/Sat and more WRLY during the day on Sun ahead of an approaching front. The pgrad may tighten a bit Fri night into the weekend with 15 kt speeds well offshore. Seas 2-3 ft very near shore Thu-Sat, but may increase to 5 ft well offshore Cape northward Sat overnight/Sun - possibly to 6 ft offshore Sun night. Generally dry thru Fri night, but SCT showers and ISOLD lightning storms may enter the picture again Sat-Sun as moisture increases with approaching front. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1225 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 CIGs are forecast to drop to MVFR/IFR areawide early this morning, with observations at LEE and DAB already supporting this. Stratus will build southward, with TEMPOs in effect from 08-12Z for the lower CIGs. VFR conditions are forecast to return late this morning, with prevailing NNW winds 5 to 10 knots through the day. Dry conditions are anticipated through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 71 52 72 59 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 75 55 77 60 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 75 58 76 63 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 77 57 77 61 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 72 50 75 58 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 73 52 75 59 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 73 54 76 60 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 78 57 78 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1253462 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:33 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 220 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 203 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 - Medium to high (50 to 80%) chances for rain are in the forecast starting late Thursday morning through at least Saturday night. - Widespread rainfall totals of 1" to 4" are possible through the weekend, with higher amounts forecast along and north of a line from near Panama City, FL to Fitzgerald, GA. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 203 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Today`s forecast will largely depend on how long the stratus deck following the cold front lingers. Most guidance suggests it lingers through at least mid-morning for much of the area, but may stick around into the early afternoon hours. Temperatures will largely depend on how long the aforementioned cloud deck lingers. As of now, have forecast highs ranging from the middle to upper 50s across Alabama and Georgia to near 60 across much of Florida outside of the SE FL Big Bend, where they`ll see temperatures in the middle to upper 60s. High clouds begin streaming in from the west later tonight ahead of our next storm system, which will be talked about in greater detail in the long term section below. Surface high pressure is forecast to be nearby tonight, allowing for calmer winds. However, the high clouds could throw a wrench into overnight lows, which are currently forecast to dip into the middle 30s across GA and AL to the upper 30s to lower 40s across FL. If the clouds are a bit slower to arrive, we could shave a few degrees off those temperatures, which could lead to some spots below freezing Thursday morning, especially in locations most efficient at radiational cooling. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 203 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Several waves of rain are forecast across the Southeast Thursday through the weekend. There remains some uncertainty with where the axis of heaviest rain will fall. A cold front is forecast to move through Monday, taking the rain with it. Our area will be sandwiched between an H5 ridge across the Florida Straits and a trough to the northwest of us. This promotes southwesterly flow aloft and will keep the storm track very near, if not right over, the region. Add in our area being over the right entrance region of an upper-level jet and it all points to a rainier pattern for the first weekend of December. The first wave of rain is forecast to arrive as a subtle shortwave within the mean H5 flow ripples overhead during the day Thursday. Very dry air in place will have to be overcome Thursday morning before rain finally starts to fall. Most guidance suggests this happening by Thursday afternoon for areas along and northwest of a line from Panama City, FL to Adel, GA with a few light showers/sprinkles forecast more to the south and east of that line, which is farther from the H5 shortwave. Another subtle H5 perturbation moves over the Southeast Friday, but this one is forecast to be a bit more north than Thursday`s. That`s important as a weak area of low pressure is forecast to develop and move inland over our area. This opens the door for a warm sector to advect inland during the day Friday and could lead to a few stronger storms, especially along and south of I-10. Ample speed shear is forecast over the area with fair straight hodographs and bulk shear in excess of 40-50 knots. However, as is usual this time of year, surface instability is lacking with CAPE values generally between 200-500 J/kg. Still, Friday afternoon into Friday night is a time period to watch for stronger storms. More rain is anticipated Saturday into Sunday as a sharper H5 shortwave moves toward the region. Combine this with the proximity of the right entrance region of the upper-level jet and precipitable water values (PWATs) near 1.6-1.8", or nearing the max levels for early December, and this time period has the potential for picking up the most rain. By the time a cold front swings through on Monday, widespread rainfall totals of 1" to 4" are forecast across the region. Locally higher totals are possible, especially if the axis of heavy rain is over the same area for all of the aforementioned rounds. A reasonable worst case, or 10% chance of happening, has as much as 6" of rain falling between Thursday morning and Monday afternoon. To be honest, temperatures throughout this period have lower confidence than usual thanks to the waves of rain in the forecast. Overall, lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s are forecast Thursday night, Friday night, and Saturday night. Daytime highs in the 50s and 60s are forecast Thursday before warming to the upper 50s to near 70 Friday. More 50s and 60s are forecast Saturday and Sunday before the cold front moves through. This pushes lows back into the 40s for everyone Sunday night and the upper 20s to middle 30s Monday night; daytime highs will remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s, but, this time, with a good amount of sunshine and a brisk northerly breeze. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 A stratus deck is entrenched over the area and is not anticipated to go anywhere the rest of tonight into Wednesday morning. MVFR to IFR ceilings prevail through at least mid-morning at most TAF sites with some potential of them lingering into early Thursday afternoon. VFR conditions are forecast once the stratus deck lifts out. Otherwise, light to moderate northerly winds are anticipated through the TAF period. A few high clouds begin entering from the west near the end of the TAF period and signify our next storm system for Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Favorable marine conditions are expected through tonight. A tightening pressure gradient brings easterly to northeasterly winds to near Cautionary levels west of Apalachicola Thursday. Southerly winds are forecast Friday as an area of low pressure meanders along the northern Gulf Coast with the potential for Advisory level winds Friday into Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 203 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 High pressure combined with ample low-level moisture and an inversion will keep dispersions low today and again Thursday. Rain chances increase from west to east during the day Thursday with a couple rounds of rain anticipated again Friday and Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 203 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Several rounds of rain are forecast Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. By the time a cold front swings through later this weekend, widespread rainfall totals of 1" to 4" are forecast, with higher totals anticipated along and north of a line near Panama City, FL to Fitzgerald, GA. The lower end of the rainfall amounts are currently forecast across the Florida Big Bend and into south- central Georgia. Fortunately, the riverine flood threat is rather low at this time as much of the rain falling across Alabama and Georgia should be more stratiform in nature and very beneficial. Meanwhile, a few convective downpours are forecast across Florida, mainly along and south of I-10, and could lead to localized flash flooding should they train over our more urban areas. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 59 41 59 49 / 0 0 40 50 Panama City 60 45 58 49 / 0 10 60 60 Dothan 55 37 52 45 / 0 10 70 80 Albany 54 34 54 45 / 0 0 60 70 Valdosta 58 36 60 47 / 0 0 40 40 Cross City 67 41 69 51 / 0 0 10 20 Apalachicola 61 49 62 52 / 0 0 30 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ early this morning for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1253461 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:12 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 201 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and drier through Thursday then warming trend into the weekend. - Next round of unsettled conditions over the weekend. - Improving conditions early next week along with cooler temps. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Westerly flow aloft over the peninsula this morning between broad troughing aloft encompassing most of the CONUS and ridging from the far S Gulf/NW Caribbean into the W Atlantic. A surface frontal boundary continues to push south across SWFL and will likely stall and remain in the S FL/FL Straits vicinity through late week. A series of shortwaves propagating eastward across the Deep South/SE U.S. this weekend will support the development of a few frontal waves while the lingering surface boundary lifts back north over the peninsula leading to increasing moisture and rain chances. While ridging may hold just enough on Saturday to keep highest rain chances confined to northern and Nature Coast locations, guidance indicates the ridging shifting E into the Atlantic on Sunday ahead of a more potent approaching shortwave, allowing deeper moisture to advect N/E over the peninsula ahead of the surface boundary pushing back S/E across the area leading to area wide shower and storm chances. Cooler drier air filters into the region in the wake of the front early next week as Canadian high pressure settles across the C/E U.S. favoring dry conditions and below normal temps across the local area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Post-frontal MVFR/LCL IFR cigs overnight into Wednesday morning remain primary concern, before lifting to VFR around midday. Generally N/NW winds expected, highest in afternoon while remaining below 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 200 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Cooler and drier conditions settle across the coastal waters with winds and seas continuing to diminish in the wake of a passing cold front. Quieter marine conditions persist into the weekend when the next cold front and rain chances arrive. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Minimal fire weather concerns expected through the period as minimum RH values remain above critical thresholds. Rain free conditions through the end of the work week followed by rain chances over the weekend as a frontal boundary settles across the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 75 55 79 62 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 81 59 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 77 54 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 75 55 79 61 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 73 46 79 54 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 73 57 77 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1253460 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 100 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 100 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 - Heavy rainfall potential sets up Thursday through the end of the week. - A moderate rip current risk returns for the beaches of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 100 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Zonal flow aloft will gradually shift to a west-southwesterly flow by Thursday evening, with a series of upper level impulses traversing the region through the remainder of the week. A surface high pressure area east of the Mississippi River will gradually weaken through noon Thursday as it shifts eastward, while a low- level inverted trough sets up over the Texas coast into southern Louisiana. An impressive return of precipitable water (PWAT) will occur as we transition from around 0.2 inch PWAT this morning under a strong subsidence inversion, to range from 1.5-1.7 inches by Thursday evening. Slightly higher PWAT values are expected after midnight Thursday through noon Friday as we tap into an atmospheric river extended over the entire western Gulf into the northern Gulf. Likely to categorical precipitation chances (pops) for both Thursday and Friday remain unchanged. These high pops will likely occur on Saturday as well along and southeast of the I-65 corridor. There also remains a signal for modest probabilities for the potential of heavy rain over this period. Appropriately so, the southwestern portion of our forecast area remains in marginal risk of excessive rainfall on Thursday, our entire area is outlooked on Friday, and areas along and southeast of the I-65 corridor is outlooked on Saturday. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2.5 to 3.5 inches are forecast, with locally higher amounts up to 6 inches possible. We will also closely monitor the trajectory of the surface low and attendant warm front/warm sector to determine if a potential exists for more surface based convection and the risk of strong storms. The entire system will exit the area near the end of the weekend, with a dry period returning through the middle of next week. Beach Forecast: A LOW risk of rip currents today through Thursday night will increase to MODERATE on Friday, and is expected to drop back to LOW over the weekend. /22 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Regional surface observations and satellite imagery are detecting solid ceiling ranging from 900-1400 feet over the entire area. Given the abundant moisture trapped below a subsidence inversion, these ceilings will persist through daybreak Wednesday. The clouds are expected to clear out by 15-18z Wednesday at the latest. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 100 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 No significant impacts to small craft are expected through the remainder of the week outside of locally higher winds/seas and reduced visibilities associated with showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, light north to northeast winds today will shift northeasterly to easterly tonight and gradually increase through Thursday along with building seas. A series of low-level troughs and surface lows will move eastward over the area Thursday afternoon through the remainder of the week, bringing numerous to widespread showers along with embedded thunderstorms. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 57 42 53 45 / 0 40 90 80 Pensacola 58 47 55 50 / 0 30 80 80 Destin 59 47 58 51 / 0 20 70 70 Evergreen 58 37 53 43 / 0 10 80 80 Waynesboro 56 35 48 40 / 0 40 80 90 Camden 53 33 49 40 / 0 10 70 90 Crestview 59 38 53 45 / 0 10 70 80 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1253459 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1250 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1240 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 - Low to medium rain chances (30-60%) today through Friday - Potential minor coastal flooding today through late week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1240 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 As onshore flow resumes today an overrunning pattern will develop leading to increased rain chances across the area. PWATs are progged to rise to near 1.8-1.9 inches by this evening, which is well above normal (99th percentile) for this time of year. Although most of the rain will concentrate over the Victoria Crossroads with PoPs at 30- 60% today through tonight, medium chances will spread westward (40- 60%) Thursday morning ahead of the next cold front. The boundary will swing by the region and exit into the coastal waters by Thursday afternoon with rain chances shifting back eastward. Low to medium rain chances will then continue through Friday night before drying out over the weekend as another boundary moves through and high pressure settles behind it. Temperatures will be warmer today, with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Thursday will be a few degrees cooler, but highs will struggle to get out of the 50s Friday owing to the increased cloud coverage and rain in the wake of Thursday`s front. Warmer temperatures return over the weekend, but will be cooler early next week behind the next boundary. Thursday night and Monday night will be the coldest, with lows mostly in the 40s. We will continue to monitor beach conditions for potential minor coastal flooding today through late week, with tide levels forecast to peak close to 1.8 ft MSL. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Terminals along the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads will transition to MVFR conditions brought by lowering CIGs, especially closest to the coast. Terminals across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains are expected to be on the periphery of this low-level cloud deck. Rain chances increase across the Victoria Crossroads from 22Z-03Z leading to a PROB30 group, but should be just light rain and drizzle reducing VIS and CIGs. By the end of the TAF period, most locations east of KCRP drop down to prevailing IFR conditions from another surge of scattered showers, but this will be reflected in the next TAF cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 1240 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 A gentle to moderate onshore breeze (BF 3-4) can be expected today through tonight across the coastal waters. Another cold front is forecast to push through Thursday morning, bringing another wave of fresh to strong northeasterly flow in its wake through Thursday night. This will likely warrant a Small Craft Advisory. Winds weaken to gentle to moderate heading into the weekend, with the wind direction varying. Moderate rain chances today will increase to medium to high, 60-90%, Thursday through Friday. Low rain chances linger through Saturday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 69 60 68 48 / 20 30 60 50 Victoria 67 55 62 43 / 40 60 60 40 Laredo 75 60 67 50 / 10 20 50 40 Alice 70 57 66 45 / 10 20 50 50 Rockport 71 60 67 48 / 40 50 70 50 Cotulla 71 55 61 47 / 0 30 50 40 Kingsville 71 60 68 47 / 20 20 50 50 Navy Corpus 72 64 70 51 / 40 40 70 50 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1253458 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 145 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the area from the north through Thursday before the pattern becomes unsettled again starting Friday and lasting through the start of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1 AM Wednesday... Key Messages... - Clearing skies overnight with cold temperatures A quiet night is in store after a busy weather day across ENC. The low that dumped a couple of inches of rain to the area is continuing to move northeast off of New England and high pressure is building in. CAA will ramp up behind a passing shortwave tonight, veering winds to NNE and clearing skies for much of the CWA, save for the OBX. Temps will crater to the upper 20s to low 30s across the coastal plain and mid 30s to low 40s along the coast. There won`t be much cloud cover to speak of today outside of some CAA strato-cu along the OBX. It`ll be pretty chilly with highs in the upper 40s north of Highway 264 and low 50s to the south. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 1 AM Wednesday... Key Messages.. - Fog possible late tonight/early Thursday morning With mostly clear skies and light winds, we`ll efficiently radiate tonight. Temps will tank after sunset with lows ranging from the upper 20s inland to upper 30s along the coast. There`s potential for fog to develop across the coastal plain late tonight/early Thursday, and given that temps will be below freezing, this raises concerns for freezing fog. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1 AM Tuesday... Key Messages - High pressure brings dry conditions and below normal temperatures Thursday - Another low pressure system is expected to impact the region late in the week High pressure will remain in control through the day Thursday, allowing us to stay dry and for temps to rebound to the mid 50s. A dry cold front will then pass Thursday night, sending lows into the low to mid 30s inland and low to mid 40s along the coast. The forecast becomes more unsettled starting Friday as a series of lows will move along a stalled boundary offshore and several shortwaves move through aloft. These lows will keep rain chances in the forecast through at least the weekend with highest chances being from Friday morning through Saturday morning. Surface temps across northwestern zones will be near freezing Friday morning, which will open the door for a wintry mix. Elsewhere, temps will be warm enough to keep the precip all liquid. A large temperature gradient will exist on Friday with highs in the low 40s inland and mid to upper 50s at the coast. Highs won`t be much different along the coast on Saturday but will warm to the upper 40s to low 50s inland. Slight chance/low end chance PoPs will stick around on Sunday (highest along the coast) with highs in the low to mid 50s. The start of next week looks to remain unsettled along the eastern half of the CWA with lingering slight chance/chance PoPs. Dry conditions across the board return Tuesday as high pressure builds back in. Highs will be in the mid 40s to low 50s both days. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 AM Wed... Key Messages - Gradually improving conditions early this morning Mixed bag of conditions early this morning, ranging from VFR to IFR. Low stratus will continue to sink southward and push offshore in the next few hours, giving way to pred VFR conditions. Mainly sunny skies expected today with the exception of the OBX where STCU will skirt the coast. High pressure will build in through the day with winds becoming light and variable. Radiation fog, patchy dense, will be possible tonight into early Thursday morning, with mostly clear skies and calm winds. Outlook: The next system is expected to move through ENC Friday and Saturday with another risk of widespread sub-VFR conditions. && .MARINE... As of 1 AM Wednesday... Key Messages - SCAs in effect for all coastal waters (expiring this morning) - Conditions improving through the day Latest obs show NNE winds at 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt and 5-7 ft seas. Conditions will continue to improve over the next few hours with ongoing SCAs across the coastal waters set to drop later this morning, lasting the longest from Ocracoke Inlet north due to lingering 6+ ft seas. NNE winds will decrease to 5-10 kt by this evening with seas subsiding to 3-4 ft. Tonight, winds will back to the NE but remain around 5-10 kt. Outlook: A dry cold front will pass Thursday night, which could generate a few northerly 25 kt gusts. A series of coastal lows will move through later this week and this weekend, bringing solid chances for rain but a low threat of SCA winds and seas (as of right now). Aside from the brief period of potential 25 kt gusts Thursday night, the next best chance for SCA winds will be on Monday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ150- 152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ156- 158. && $$ |
| #1253457 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 119 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail today before another frontal system impacts the area Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The forecast area will remain between a departing cold front over the western Atlantic and high pressure centered over the southern Appalachians today. This morning, high resolution guidance indicates that an sfc trough or weak backdoor cold front will reach the SC Lowcountry during the pre-dawn hours. This feature may push south, slowing or becoming stationary near the Savannah River by late this morning. Based on satellite trends, cloud cover should decrease across the SC Lowcountry north of the sfc trough. However, linger stratus south of the trough and the arrival of afternoon cirrus may keep the sky across SE GA mostly to partly cloudy through the day. Using a blend of guidance, high temperatures are forecast to range in the mid to upper 50s. Tonight, the center of high pressure will build across the CWA. As a result, winds across the forecast area should become calm inland this evening, with little to no wind expected across the coastal counties late tonight. Given the recent soaking rainfall, the combination of wet soil and calm winds, there is potential for at least ground fog by dawn Thursday morning. However, high clouds sourced from a southern stream system may stream across the region tonight, limiting the potential for mentionable fog. Low temperatures may range from freezing inland to the mid to upper 30s across the coastal counties. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Thursday: High pressure will quickly loose cohesion in the morning as ageostrophic convergence quickly turns neutral as a potent mid- level wave moves east over the Hudson Bay. 850/ 500 mb flow also is westerly with a mid-level low over the Baja of California. There are some hints that pieces of PV will advect east Thursday bringing a chance of precipitation to interior GA. The main limiting factor appears to be low level saturation. Latest model guidance and ensemble suites are faster with the overall progression of the shortwave than this time yesterday though. Therefore, chance PoPs are now in the forecast Thursday afternoon for interior GA. Expect temperatures below normal for this time of year. Friday and Saturday: Ensemble members have come into better agreement today with the overall synoptic pattern and resultant sensible weather at the surface. The mid-level low over the Baja of California is now forecast to quasi- wave break and slow down the overall group velocity of the long wave trough. However, the phase velocity of individual wave packets diving southeast out of the Colorado Rockies actually increases in speed with long wave trough amplification remaining. The means Friday looks wet as multiple rounds of PV advect over the region and a weak coastal low forms. The coastal low will then move northeast off the coast of SC and GA. Another shortwave will then move overhead Saturday with the best forcing for ascent (from a RRQ of an upper level jet, PVA and WAA) being from the Panhandle of FL across GA and coastal SC. Precipitation totals Friday through Saturday night are now forecast to be in the 1" - 2" range. One final note on ensemble agreement. The past two days, model agreement has remained rather poor due to the potential of a cut off low near the Baja of California. WPC cluster analysis from the 02.12z guidance now shows all ensemble members indicating rain on both Friday and Saturday. This agreement is rather impressive considering yesterdays guidance split, and caution is advised on the seeming model agreement (the WPC Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis still shows a majority of model variance coming from the Baja of California and Hudson Bay lows on Friday). && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Precipitation could linger across the area on Sunday as the primary mid-level wave from the Colorado Rockies finally moves east. A cold front will then push through the region bringing an end to the precipitation. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday fall well below normal with freezing temperatures possible Monday night and Tuesday night. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Prior to the 6Z TAFs, nighttime microphysics indicated a large area of MVFR ceilings across the terminals. The restrictive ceilings should remain until a sfc trough or weak backdoor front pushes across KCHS and KJZI around dawn. The passage of the trough will result in light winds to shift from the northeast along with lifting of cloud bases. Based on satellite trends, conditions over KCHS and KJZI are forecast to improve to VFR by 14Z. The sfc trough may push south, slowing or becoming stationary near the Savannah River by late this morning. As a result, MVFR ceilings over KSAV may linger until early this afternoon. Also, winds at KSAV may remain from the northwest through the TAF period. Extended Aviation Outlook: Thursday: VFR. Friday and Saturday: Cloud bases will lower early Friday and reach IFR conditions. IFR/ MVFR conditions are then forecast to continue through Saturday. Widespread rainfall is likely, but forecast soundings indicate no thunder as TAF sites remain on the cool side of a coastal front. Sunday: IFR conditions slowly recovering to VFR as a cold front moves through the region. Precipitation will also come to an end with winds out of the north/ northwest. && .MARINE... Today and tonight: No concerns across the marine zones. The pressure pattern will support generally northwest winds around 10 kts. Seas will remain between 2 to 3 ft. Thursday: Northwest winds veering from the north 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. No precipitation or marine headlines are forecast. Friday and Saturday: Winds will veer from the northeast 10 to 15 kt. Widespread showers and possibly a thunderstorm expected Friday and Saturday as a coastal low moves northeast. Expect seas 2 to 4 ft. Sunday: A cold front will cross the waters Sunday with winds out of the north 10 to 15 kt. Precipitation will come to an end during the day. Expect seas 2 to 4 ft. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The Charleston Harbor tide gage observations have remained below the astronomical tide values since Tuesday evening. Offshore flow is expected to continue through 3 AM. A weak sfc trough or backdoor cold front should slide across the harbor a couple of hours prior to the 5:52 AM high tide this morning. As the trough passes, light northeast winds should develop along the Charleston County coast. However, the duration and strength of the northeast winds appears too limited to result in coastal flooding. Astronomical tides will continue to rise with the morning high tide cycles through Friday and remain elevated through the weekend. Coastal Flood Advisories will likely be needed for morning high tide cycles, primarily at Charleston Harbor (Charleston and Coastal Colleton counties) through Saturday morning. Friday, astronomical high tides peak (6.8 ft MLLW at Charleston Harbor and 8.86 ft MLLW at Fort Pulaski) and this is when winds are forecast to turn from the northeast. Overall, this type of setup can over perform given the building anomalies from the northeast winds. Currently, moderate coastal flooding is forecast at Charleston Harbor and minor coastal flooding is forecast at Fort Pulaski. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1253456 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1232 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1120 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 - With rather persistent cloud cover most of the evening and even holding on into the overnight hours the potential for freezing conditions has decreased precipitously - Another storm system will bring widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms to the area Thursday through Friday night. There will be at least a low-end threat of heavy rain with this system and two-day rainfall totals are currently forecast in the 2-4 inch range. Please check the forecast for updates in the coming days as forecast rainfall totals and associated flood threats will continue to be refined. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through this Evening) Issued at 1120 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Clouds have plagued the area all night and we are not quite cooling as much as expected. This is going to have a significant impact on morning lows and we will likely remain abv freezing over most if not all of the area. Forecast focus is on the overnight period through the weekend but quickly today. Clouds could still be a little stubborn to start the day but eventually the low clouds should clear out but as soon as the occurs mid lvl clouds will quickly push in from the southwest this afternoon. This is the beginning of moisture returning which will increase much more rapidly overnight. Highs will be warmer today with upper 50s to mid 60s. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1120 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Main forecast concern is Thursday through the weekend. Models continue to struggle some with placement of the rain, how much, and how fast long it lasts at times. The latest trend has been a renewed 3rd shot of rain over mainly coastal sections of the CWA Saturday night into Sunday. The biggest problem with the overnight forecast tonight and through Thursday is how models are handling the band of rain/convection with 2 distinct scenarios being advertised. One where the regional and global models have the higher rain across the northern half of the area and the other advertised by the CAMs which as one would expect try to surge the convection towards the higher instability and cut off the moisture for a good chunk of the northern half of the CWA. Given the highly uncertain and low confidence in the forecast stuck pretty close to the latest NBM guidance. It is showing high PoPs for almost the entire area from overnight tonight till early Sunday and lets be honest it will not rain over the entire area that entire time. However, trying to explicitly time things out and focus on specific locations is mostly futile right now. So a quick look at the pattern and setup. Overnight tonight with a rather ugly L/W trough stretching to the southwest from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific well southwest of southern CA. This is already putting us under increasing west-southwest to southwest flow aloft which is easily visible on GOES19 with clouds streaming from the Pacific across Mexico and now into southern TX and the western Gulf. That said there are a few keys pieces of energy embedded in the broad L/W with the one that will have the greatest say over the area currently moving south over CA. This stronger s/w will begin to split with part of it heading back to the south-southwest along the backside of the trough and the rest trying to round out just south of the 4 corners. This s/w will start to flatten out and eventually just merge becoming more part of the L/W trough. That said it will add a lot of energy with the mid lvl flow greatly responding across the southern Plains, the Lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley Thursday. Even though it just becomes part of the whole setup and loses its identity it will provide enough support to see low pressure start to take shape across the TX coast early Thursday with an inverted trough axis extending to the northeast across southern LA. If the s/w can hold onto its identity a little more it may try to help to draw the broad sfc low and inverted trough a touch more north however, if it just quickly merges with the main flow we will likely see a weaker broad sfc low along the TX coast and the inverted trough and possible warm front along the coast. This will have implications on rainfall especially amounts and location. This is where the the two different scenarios emerge. First all model solutions have a weak sfc low and the bigger issue is how the handle the evolution of convection and the locations of the inverted trough and warm front. The global and even regional models draw things farther north where the CAMs which are just now getting into the time frame really allow convection to dictate and eventually surge the convection cold pool style towards the coast and the better instability. That would make sense but am hesitant given as this could just be feedback as the CAMs just feed into themselves. The strong s/w and its impact across the southern Plains make me initially think it will try to draw things a touch farther north. The key will be where convection as as we cross midnight tonight and see it it is continuing to expand ENE or if the eastern edge of the precip isn`t quickly expanding ENE and actually holding onto a harder edge and moving more east with a slight southern component suggesting it trying to be drawn towards the coast. This also would likely be self fulfilling as convection would try to strengthen the sfc low over the coast or coastal waters and thus reinforce convection trying to become more coastal. Again if I had to choose one side over the other I am probably slightly leaning towards the global and regional models. The forcing is not overwhelming to really lead to so strong of convection that cold pooling would take over. In addition the strongest forcing is still north so convection will likely remain focused on the inverted trough which will eventually get anchored over the northern half of the CWA early Thursday through the midday hours. As for potential of heavy rain. The biggest feature is rapidly increasing moisture overnight tonight. PWs will be abv the 90th percentile. So convection will already be efficient and combine that with some elevated instability to work with and there could be a band of locally heavy rain. Obviously the other concern would be training given the band will likely be parallel to the mid lvl flow so the main issue would be where that sets up. Most of the area had been rather dry and even with vegetation likely in a more dormant phase the dry soils and low rivers can handle quite a bit of rain. The issue would be if this lines up directly over any of our larger urban areas. Where runoff is always a problem if the rain comes down hard enough. That is just round one as the trough starts to buckle a little with some the closed low in the Pacific finally sliding east with the L/W trough. This will lead to a break in the rain late Thursday and possible Thursday night however there will still be spotty showers out there overnight. The next round of rain be Friday as stronger forcing spreads out over the area. Even though the forcing will increase it will be broad with no real focus and still some weak inverted trough laying up along the southeastern half of the CWA Friday. Rain will likely be lighter Friday especially over the northwest. As that moves to the east we will probably see another break with spotty light rain overnight Friday and into Saturday but a third area of low pressure could develop over the southern Plains or even the western Gulf and as the trough axis gets closer we will see a 3rd round of rain try to impact the region overnight Saturday and into Sunday. One last thing to mention and it was brought up in the Marine section. There is a window for minor coastal flooding Thursday night into Friday during high tide. 24 to 36 hours of easterly to east- southeasterly flow increasing in strength and occuring at the same time as peak tides this month should lead to some minor coastal flooding across coastal Hancock county and east facing shore of SELA. /CAB/ && .AVIATION...Thursday night (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Clouds are finally trying to clear out of the area with the southwestern edge eroding to the north. Still quite a bit of low cigs over most of the around mainly hanging around 1400 to 2k ft. This has all terminals currently in MVFR and that will likely continue to be the case through the early morning hours. Cigs will finally start to lift and scatter out from southwest to northeast after 12z and maybe even slightly later than that. Mid lvl clouds will begin to move back in this afternoon and evening as moisture returns. Rain should hold off till after 6z for most terminals with BTR haveing the greatest risk of seeing rain and even MVFR cigs again before 6z. /CAB && .MARINE... Issued at 1120 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 High pressure has moved in but will continue to sliding east quickly leading to light return flow by midday/early afternoon today. Weak low pressure will begin to develop along the Texas coast tonight and slowly drift east-northeast Thursday along the coast. This will tighten the pressure gradient especially east of the Mississippi River delta. Winds will increase with moderate to strong east- southeast to easterly winds. This will have multiple impacts with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected Thursday into Friday but the increase in onshore winds will combine with the increasing tidal cycle at the end of the week likely leading to at least some minor coastal flooding. Main concern will be east facing shores of Orleans, St Bernard, Plaquemines, and far southeastern St Tammany. In addition coastal Hancock around Waveland will also deal with some minor coastal flooding Thursday night through Friday morning. Winds will relax and return to offshore late Friday and Friday night but another weak surface low will develop Saturday moving across the coastal waters late Saturday bringing another brief period of moderate to strong winds. /CAB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 43 31 58 43 / 0 0 0 70 BTR 47 32 61 48 / 0 0 0 80 ASD 51 33 60 43 / 0 0 0 60 MSY 51 42 63 52 / 0 0 0 70 GPT 53 35 59 45 / 10 0 0 50 PQL 55 33 60 41 / 10 0 0 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1253455 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 124 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure will return through Thursday. A weak backdoor cold front will drop through late Thursday. Waves of low pressure will develop along this lingering front, bringing clouds and periods of rain from Friday into the weekend. Mostly dry conditions may return early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS: *Hazards: Dense fog possible tonight *Rain Chances: None *Temps: Below normal *Confidence: Moderate to High Details: High pressure will prevail with dry weather and below normal temperatures expected. Main concern is the risk for dense fog tonight given pretty decent radiational cooling conditions and the wet ground from recent rainfall, although it could just be shallow and not cause significant visibility reductions. Highs today mainly around 50 degrees with sub-freezing temperatures into the upper 20s likely tonight away from the milder coastal areas. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Dry and slightly warmer Thursday as high clouds start to build in through the day ahead of moisture from the SW. A weak backdoor front will drop through Thursday night and the increased flow between high pressure over the Midwestern states and low pressure near the Gulf will push more moisture to the east over our area. This will make light rain possible late Thursday night. Rain chances will continue to expand over the area from west to east through Friday and Friday night due to influence from a nearby low off the SE coast. Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.5" are possible but there is still uncertainty due to the nature of the frontal system. Highs will drop Thursday to Friday with the frontal passage by ~10 degrees, and lows will remain in the mid to upper 30s. The colder areas to our north could see wintry precip but for now we remain firmly in rain territory. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Solid rain chances could linger through Saturday and Saturday night as the frontal system continues offshore but a stalled front remains nearby. Rain chances should start to really abate through Sunday before another, drier frontal passage drops through Monday with low rain chances mostly near the coast and offshore. Dry conditions should return for Tuesday and Wednesday though there are hints that the pattern may become wet again towards the end of the period. The coldest night looks to be Monday night but otherwise highs will be in or near the 50s so not much change there. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Moderate to high confidence. Patches of low clouds will continue to rotate south through the area today with MVFR/IFR cigs likely at least for a brief period. The current batch of low clouds will push south of the terminals in the next hour or so but there is another batch heading this way across east-central NC which could impact the area closer to daybreak. Extended Outlook...VFR to prevail through Thursday night outside of possible dense fog late tonight. Another storm system will likely bring restrictions starting as early as Friday but more likely starting Friday night. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...High confidence this period. High pressure will build into the area with improving marine conditions as the pressure gradient slackens. Thursday through Monday...Offshore flow ~10 kts will become NE ~15 kts as a cold front pushes through Thursday night/Friday morning. N to NE winds will then linger through the rest of the period 10-15 kts with in increase to 15-20 kts Monday due to a passing frontal system. Seas 2-3 ft with 4 footers possible Monday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1253454 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 117 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the area from the north through Thursday before the pattern becomes unsettled again starting Friday and lasting through the start of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1 AM Wednesday... Key Messages... - Clearing skies overnight with cold temperatures A quiet night is in store after a busy weather day across ENC. The low that dumped a couple of inches of rain to the area is continuing to move northeast off of New England and high pressure is building in. CAA will ramp up behind a passing shortwave tonight, veering winds to NNE and clearing skies for much of the CWA, save for the OBX. Temps will crater to the upper 20s to low 30s across the coastal plain and mid 30s to low 40s along the coast. There won`t be much cloud cover to speak of today outside of some CAA strato-cu along the OBX. It`ll be pretty chilly with highs in the upper 40s north of Highway 264 and low 50s to the south. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 1 AM Wednesday... Key Messages.. - Fog possible late tonight/early Thursday morning With mostly clear skies and light winds, we`ll efficiently radiate tonight. Temps will tank after sunset with lows ranging from the upper 20s inland to upper 30s along the coast. There`s potential for fog to develop across the coastal plain late tonight/early Thursday, and given that temps will be below freezing, this raises concerns for freezing fog. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1 AM Tuesday... Key Messages - High pressure brings dry conditions and below normal temperatures Thursday - Another low pressure system is expected to impact the region late in the week High pressure will remain in control through the day Thursday, allowing us to stay dry and for temps to rebound to the mid 50s. A dry cold front will then pass Thursday night, sending lows into the low to mid 30s inland and low to mid 40s along the coast. The forecast becomes more unsettled starting Friday as a series of lows will move along a stalled boundary offshore and several shortwaves move through aloft. These lows will keep rain chances in the forecast through at least the weekend with highest chances being from Friday morning through Saturday morning. Surface temps across northwestern zones will be near freezing Friday morning, which will open the door for a wintry mix. Elsewhere, temps will be warm enough to keep the precip all liquid. A large temperature gradient will exist on Friday with highs in the low 40s inland and mid to upper 50s at the coast. Highs won`t be much different along the coast on Saturday but will warm to the upper 40s to low 50s inland. Slight chance/low end chance PoPs will stick around on Sunday (highest along the coast) with highs in the low to mid 50s. The start of next week looks to remain unsettled along the eastern half of the CWA with lingering slight chance/chance PoPs. Dry conditions across the board return Tuesday as high pressure builds back in. Highs will be in the mid 40s to low 50s both days. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 630 PM Tuesday... Key Messages - Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions to continue for several more hours - Gradually improving aviation conditions overnight Precip has moved offshore late this afternoon but IFR/LIFR cigs will continue across rtes through much of the evening before improving after midnight, although some guidance showing another area of STCU moving south out of VA bringing an addition period of IFR/MVFR cigs around 5-8z. Mainly sunny skies expected Wednesday with the exception of the OBX where STCU will skirt the coast. High pressure will build in through the day with winds becoming light and variable. Outlook: The next weather system is slated to move through ENC Friday and Saturday with another risk of sub VFR conditions. && .MARINE... As of 1 AM Wednesday... Key Messages - SCAs in effect for all coastal waters (expiring this morning) - Conditions improving through the day Latest obs show NNE winds at 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt and 5-7 ft seas. Conditions will continue to improve over the next few hours with ongoing SCAs across the coastal waters set to drop later this morning, lasting the longest from Ocracoke Inlet north due to lingering 6+ ft seas. NNE winds will decrease to 5-10 kt by this evening with seas subsiding to 3-4 ft. Tonight, winds will back to the NE but remain around 5-10 kt. Outlook: A dry cold front will pass Thursday night, which could generate a few northerly 25 kt gusts. A series of coastal lows will move through later this week and this weekend, bringing solid chances for rain but a low threat of SCA winds and seas (as of right now). Aside from the brief period of potential 25 kt gusts Thursday night, the next best chance for SCA winds will be on Monday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ150- 152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ156- 158. && $$ |
| #1253453 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 122 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 120 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 - Dry and comfortable weather for the middle to end of this week. - Above average temperatures continue into the end of the week with highs increasing to the mid to upper 80s by week`s end. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 120 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 The weak frontal boundary will push through South Florida this morning, ushering in some drier air into the local atmospheric column. Additionally, the upper level ridge centered over the Caribbean and extending into the Eastern CONUS will provide subsidence and inhibit any shallow moist layers from having enough lift to produce weak showers. Surface high pressure will also be centered over the SE states and further provide inhibition. As a result, a quiet and comfortable weather pattern is setting up for the next few days. High temperatures are expected in the low to mid 80s today and tomorrow with overnight lows ranging from the mid to upper 50s and low 60s for the interior and Gulf coast to the mid to upper 60s for the east coast metro areas. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 120 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Mid-level and upper-level ridging will remain over the Caribbean and western Atlantic through Saturday before beginning to break down as longwave troughing enhances across the central and eastern CONUS. This will lead to ongoing tranquil weather through Saturday before we begin to see indications of a pattern change in the latter half of Sunday and heading into next week. With high pressure dominance through Saturday, temperatures will trend higher than normal in the mid to upper 80s for Friday through this weekend. The mid-level ridge will eventually get pushed away from the area as the strengthening trough over the central and eastern U.S. breaks up into an overall elongated trough and a deeper shortwave forming over the southeast and Mid-Atlantic states. An attendant cold front will advect southwards from this disturbance and ahead of its arrival the low level wind flow will shift to the south and southwest over the weekend, leading to an increase in moisture advection back into South Florida. As a result, with this cold front expected to be a more robust one compared to the last couple, the front will be able to lift this warm and moist air out ahead of it and increase the chances for some rain showers and thunderstorms mainly for the second half of Sunday as well as Monday. Despite the increase in moisture, model soundings this far out do suggest that there will not be an overwhelming amount of instability as the frontal passage occurs. Thus, most showers and storms that occur during this time frame could end up being of the garden variety with a couple of heavier localized pockets. Overall, any QPF forecast is still highly uncertain at this time but will begin to be more refined in the next few days. In general, not expecting much in the way of impactful weather with this system at this time. Behind this front that right now looks to pass through the region on Monday, overall quiet weather returns for the end of the forecast period heading into the middle of next week as a substantially drier air mass returns to the region. Temperatures for early next week will drop into the 70s on Monday behind the aforementioned front and will struggle to rebound for a couple of days. Overnight lows will also get chillier behind the front with chances for most areas to fall into the 50s Monday night and even a few areas into the upper 40s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 MVFR/IFR CIGs are still looking probable in the late night hours tonight with a frontal passage. This is expected to last until around 15Z or so when the cloud base begins to lift. Winds will increase out of the N/NNW today but will be generally light, typically not exceeding 5-7 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 120 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 A gentle to moderate northerly breeze is expected today as a frontal boundary passes through the area this morning into the afternoon. Winds then increase for the end of the week to a moderate breeze and shift easterly on Thursday and southeasterly on Friday. Seas across all local waters for the next couple of days are expected at 2-3 feet. && .BEACHES... Issued at 120 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 A moderate risk for rip currents continues for the Palm beaches the next couple of days, with a low risk for the rest of the local beaches. An elevated risk may continue through the end of the week and this weekend for portions of the Atlantic coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 84 68 81 70 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 85 65 84 66 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 85 67 83 69 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 84 67 82 69 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 82 66 80 69 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 82 67 81 69 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 85 67 83 68 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 82 65 81 68 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 84 66 81 69 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 81 61 82 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1253452 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 106 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A winter storm will bring accumulating snow across interior southern New England into tonight...particularly north of I-90 into the high terrain where significant snow accumulations are expected. Mainly rain is expected across eastern MA and RI...before a transition to snow occurs later tonight. All precipitation should have come to an end by daybreak Wednesday. An arctic front may be accompanied by a few snow showers or squalls Thursday followed by very cold airmass Thursday night and Friday. A coastal storm tracks well to the south Friday night and Saturday but may bring a bit of light snow to the region. Another cold front moves through Sunday followed by another surge of very cold air Sunday night and Monday. Mainly dry and cold conditions continue into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 645 PM update... Northern extent of warm layer aloft has made it about as far N as it`s going to get and will begin to move back SE as cooling begins. As a result any interior freezing rain will flip back to snow this evening and should see rain in the coastal plain briefly change to snow within a few hours of midnight before ending. An additional 1-3 inches is possible across interior northern MA with perhaps a coating to an inch along the I-95 corridor. Temps along the I-95 corridor will fall to 30-32F overnight so patchy black ice will be possible. A surge of strong N winds will develop over the eastern waters to the Cape/Islands near and after midnight as low level jet develops. Gusts to 35-45 mph are possible. Previous discussion... Key Messages: * Winter Storm continues tonight across interior southern New England especially north of I-90 and the high terrain * 1-2" per hour snowfall rates north of I-90 and especially near route 2 make for hazardous travel for the evening commute * Mid level warm layer moving northward will result in Ptype transitioning to a period of rain/ice south of I-90 * Narrow swath of sleet and freezing rain for a time into northern CT, interior southern MA and far northwest RI * Mainly rain along the I-95 corridor into RI that should transition to a period of snow before ending toward daybreak * Total snow accumulations of 5-10" in the highest terrain of northern MA...2-5" in the lower elevations of western/central MA...and mainly a dusting to 2" across RI and eastern MA Details... This afternoon into tonight... Low pressure will be intensifying as it moves off the mid Atlantic coast and tracks just inside the Benchmark this afternoon into this evening. Thermal profiles are initially cold enough for mainly snow northwest of the I-84/I-495 interchange inland from the coastal front into mid afternoon. However...given the lack of cold high pressure across eastern Canada and the mid level centers tracking northwest of the Benchmark will allow warmer mid-level air to move northward. Therefore...an initial burst of snow through early afternoon will change to mainly rain south of I-90 by mid-late afternoon. A few inches of snow may occur in this region before the transition to rain across southwest/south central MA perhaps into far northern CT. There remains some uncertainty how far north this mid level warm layer will reach before stalling out...but we are thinking this will mainly stay south of the route 2 corridor and possibly not make it much further north than I-90. As the mid level low/s close off and result in strong mid level frontogenesis...we may see 1-2 per hour snowfall rates this afternoon into early evening where Ptype remains snow north of I-90 and especially towards route 2. This will result in significant impact to the evening commute north of I90 and especially near route 2 corridor. There is a narrow area of sleet and freezing rain on the edge of the mid level warmth. We did expand the Winter Weather Advisory into northern CT/far northwest RI to account for this risk. We also are seeing this sleet and freezing rain into interior parts of southern MA near and south of I-90. Meanwhile...areas south of I-90 as well as along the I-95 should see moderate to heavy rain for the late day commute. As the mid level low/s shift east of the region...lingering moisture with temps cooling aloft should allow for many locations to transition to snow before things wind down before daybreak Wednesday. A coating to an inch of snow will be possible onto the I- 95 corridor with perhaps 2" into interior eastern MA. Further northwest in the lower elevations of western/central MA and even interior northeast MA...total accumulations of 2-5" seem reasonable. The highest snowfall amounts of 5-10" should be common across the northern Worcester Hills/Berks and as well as areas north of route 2. Lastly...gusty N winds will work into the region on the backside of the system later this evening and overnight. Gusts of 20-30 mph are expected overnight with some 35-40+ mph gusts possible across the outer- Cape/Nantucket. Low temps by daybreak will be in the 20s across the interior...with lower to middle 30s along the I-95 corridor and middle to upper 30s near the Cape and Islands. So not expecting many issues with roads along and southeast of I-95 corridor...but northwest of I-95 untreated roads will be slippery for the Wed am commute despite the precipitation having ended. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Key Messages... * Mostly sunny/quiet weather Wed with highs ranging from the middle 30s in the high terrain to the upper 30s/lower 40s elsewhere * Dry and chilly Wed night with lows in the upper teens and 20s Details... Wednesday... A ridge of high pressure briefly builds to our southwest on Wednesday. This will result in plenty of sunshine with winds becoming rather light by later in the morning and afternoon. Temperatures still below normal for early December...but not bad with plenty of sunshine and light winds. Highs Wednesday should range from the middle 30s in the high terrain and the upper 30s to the lower 40s elsewhere. Also...we did opt to issue a Coastal Flood Statement for the high astro tide Wednesday morning along the eastern MA coast. Any impacts should be very minor...but with building seas offshore and a gusty N- NW winds some very minor coastal flooding/splash over will be possible during the time of high tide with the best chance south of Boston. Wednesday night... Dry and chilly weather is on tap for Wednesday night out ahead of an arctic cold front. Low temperatures should mainly be in the upper teens and 20s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Messages: * Scattered snow showers and localized squalls possible Thu * Arctic airmass moves into SNE Thu night-Fri with very cold temps * Coastal storm to the south may bring some light wintry precip Fri night and Sat but bulk of precip expected to remain to the south. Minimal impacts expected * Another cold front will deliver a very cold airmass Sun night-Mon Overview... Overall -AO/-NAO pattern will persist through the extended period keeping mean trough across the eastern CONUS with TPV over eastern Canada. This will keep temps well below normal with a few surges of arctic air. Overall, not looking at any significant precip events through the period with northern stream dominant pattern and minimal southern stream interaction. Details... An arctic front crosses the region Thu afternoon and evening and will likely be accompanied by scattered snow showers. The snow squall parameter is favorable Thu afternoon, especially across northern MA as the front is moving so potential exists for a few localized snow squalls. After the front moves through, gusty NW winds during the afternoon and evening will usher in much colder air with sharply falling temps. Winds diminish overnight as high pres builds over New Eng with cold advection transitioning to radiational cooling for the second half of the night. 925 mb temps bottom out around -14 to -16C Thu night and recover to -8 to -10C on Fri. Lows will drop into the single numbers interior and teens in the coastal plain. High pres in control Fri with dry and cold weather and highs mostly in the 20s, except lower 30s near the south coast. Fast moving low amplitude shortwave moving off the mid Atlc coast with coastal low tracking well to the south Fri night into Sat. Best moisture and bulk of QPF remains to the south but can`t rule out a bit of light snow Fri night, especially south of the MA Pike, then some light rain/snow showers possible during Sat. Ensemble guidance indicates potential for a very light QPF event with minor accum less than an inch possible with minimal impacts expected. Another cold front will be moving through Sun with another surge of arctic air Sun night into Mon with lows down into the single numbers and teens again and highs Mon in the 20s to lower 30s. Mainly dry weather Sun-Mon. Temps moderate some next Tue and it still looks dry but confidence in sensible weather is low given considerable spread in the guidance with timing, amplitude and location of approaching shortwaves. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z update... Through 12Z...Moderate confidence (timing of VFR). MVFR-IFR improving toward VFR from west to east 06Z-12Z. Light SN for interior terminals as well as BOS/PVD early this morning, likely exiting by 12Z. Minor accum (Trace-0.5") possible at BOS. Rain showers for Cape/Islands through 12Z. N-NNW winds with gusts to 20-25 kts. 30-40 kt gusts possible for Cape/Islands. Wednesday...High Confidence. Most terminals improve to VFR by 13Z. Cape/Islands will likely hold onto the lower ceilings a little longer before improving to VFR 14-18Z. NW winds with gusts up to 22 kts (up to 25 kts for Cape/Islands) in the morning decreasing in the afternoon. Winds shift WSW after 21Z. Wednesday Night...High Confidence. VFR. Light SW winds. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Light snow early this morning, ending 08-10Z. Conditions improve to VFR 11-13Z. Moderate confidence on timing of VFR. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Friday: VFR. Breezy. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance FZRA, slight chance SN. Saturday: VFR. Chance RA, slight chance SN. Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight...High confidence. * Gale warnings tonight across our eastern waters Rapidly intensifying low pressure system passes east of the Benchmark this evening. This increase in pressure gradient results in N wind gusts increasing to between 30 and 40 knots. Strongest of those winds will be across our eastern waters where Gale Warnings will continue. Across our western waters...strong small craft advisories remain posted but a few brief gusts to 35 knots possible. Wednesday and Wednesday night... The low pressure system will already be east of the Canadian Maritimes Wednesday morning. A weak ridge of high pressure will then temporarily build to our southwest. This will allow winds to diminish Wed and while seas will slowly drop off too...they will remain elevated enough that small craft headlines will be needed into early Wed evening. Winds/seas may both briefly drop below small craft thresholds later Wed night...but SW wind gusts of 20-25 knots will re-develop toward daybreak Thu ahead of our next cold front. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain, chance of snow. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for CTZ002>004. MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MAZ005- 006-010>012. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for MAZ002>004-008-009-026. RI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for RIZ001. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ230. Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ231-232-250- 251-254-255. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ233>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ236. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ256. && $$ |
| #1253451 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1256 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure continues to move to the north allowing skies to clear and showers to diminish this afternoon. High pressure returns with dry and cool weather for the middle of the week. Another system potentially impacts the region Friday into Saturday morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 900 PM EST Tuesday... Key Messages: - Clouds decrease tonight, allowing for cold temperatures. - Another cold but dry day is expected tomorrow. The low pressure system that brought beneficial rainfall to the area today has moved offshore and is currently centered just off the Northeast coast. This system has strengthened to 995 mb which has lead to a tightened gradient across the region. This, in conjunction with stronger CAA, has led to an increase in winds mainly across the locals waters. A few land-based observation sites have measured occasional gusts of 15-20 mph over the past few hours. GOES Nighttime Microphysics is showing gradually clearing skies east of the Appalachians this evening despite a majority of the Ohio River Valley through the Gulf Coast being socked in by thick cloud cover. Temperatures are currently in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Lower dew points are starting to bleed down into the Northern Neck and across the Eastern Shore. High pressure will build across the area tonight, ushering a cooler and drier airmass into the region through tomorrow. Temperatures will plummet into the lower to mid 20s inland (lower 30s along the coast). Cloud cover will continue to decrease tonight, with mostly clear to clear skies forecast for tomorrow. Despite the abundant sunshine expected, temperatures will remain quite cool with highs only reaching into the low to middle 40s inland and upper 40s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 PM EST Tuesday... Key Messages: - Dry weather continues through Thursday. - Another weather system is possible Friday into Saturday potentially bringing mix precipitations. Primarily SW to zonal flow aloft is expected across the area early Thursday with a strong trough staying a little north of the area. High pressure at the surface will slide offshore Wednesday allowing temperature to "warm" slightly during the day under partly cloudy skies. High will be in the middle to upper 40s across the north and Eastern Shore and lower 50s across the south. To the west a cold front will approach and move across the area ushering in a much colder airmass. Lows Thursday night will be in upper 20s and lower 30s across the coast and SE and low to middle 20s further inland. There is even the possibility of upper teens across the far NW. By Friday the cold front is expected to stall off the coast setting the stage for our next potential system. Strong zonal flow aloft will be present over the area with some weak divergence aloft. This will allow for potential cyclogenesis to occur at the surface and allow for a formation of a low pressure system. While to the north a high pressure is expect to move north of the area locking cold air in place across the area. Highs will be in the middle to upper 30s inland and low to middle 40s across the SE. The track and strengthen of the low is unclear at this time and there is still much spread in the models. The latest ECMWF is a bit more aggressive with the system and has 60-70% of snow accumulation up to an inch. While the GEFS has 0% probability. There is also an uncertainty with precipitation types. There could be the potential of some areas receiving mixed precipitation which includes freezing rain/sleet. This system is expected to continue into early Saturday with any precipitation remaining being switched over to rain by late Saturday. Trends in the potential system this weekend will continue to be monitored. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 400 PM EST Tuesday... - Below normal temperatures is expected late this weekend and early next week. - Chances of precipitation increase early next week with another potential system. By Sunday much cooler temperatures are possible in wake of the system and behind a cold front and as high pressure moves into place. Dry weather is expected Sunday with highs only reaching into the lower to mid 40s inland and upper 40s across the SE. There remains much uncertainty in early next week with an additional system due to model disagreement. Some deterministic models remain quite different than their own ensembles. Due to this uncertainty have decided to cap off Pops below 20% and have kept a rain/snow mix in the forecast for know. Only confidence in the extended in much colder temperatures are possible as the strong high moves into place. Monday will be the coldest day as of now with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s and lows in the upper teens to low 30s. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1255 AM EST Wednesday... High pressure is building in from the W as of 06z in the wake of low pressure and a cold front. VFR under a mostly clear sky with a NW wind of 8-12kt, with occasional gusts approaching 20kt. VFR conditions are expected to prevail today into tonight with generally clear/sunny sky aside from some patchy SC toward the coast. The wind will remain NW 8-12kt through mid-aftn, before diminishing and shifting to W/SW. By tonight, the wind will be calm to very light. VFR conditions continue Thursday as high pressure remains over the region. A low pressure system will bring the potential for degraded flight conditions Friday into Friday night with potentially snow turning to a wintry mix for the northern terminals and mainly rain for the southeastern terminals. Drier conditions return by Saturday and Sunday. && .MARINE... As of 250 PM EST Tuesday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all local waters today into Wednesday as a low creates gusty winds. - Another round of SCAs are likely later Thursday into Friday behind a cold front. Sfc low pressure has developed off the local coast this afternoon. Winds have shifted to the NW, and obs in the bay, rivers and Md coastal waters have already picked up to 15-20kt. There have been a few gusts as high as 30-34kt, but most gusts are 25-30kt. Winds in the rivers did pick up a little earlier than originally forecast, so went ahead and started the SCAs for these zones a little early. The bay and coastal waters also have SCAs in effect, and the Currituck Sound will be added this evening once those stronger winds spread a little further south. Winds are forecast to remain around 22-25kt across the Bay and ocean (17-20kt for the rivers and Sound) with gusts up to 30-32kt this evening into the overnight hours. A few gale-force gusts to 34kt can`t be ruled out late this evening/early overnight; however, local wind probabilities for gale gusts continue to remain very low. Thus, higher-end Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all local waters today through the first part of Wednesday. Waves in the Bay will increase to 3-4ft during the period of strongest winds overnight. Seas will build to 4-6ft throughout this evening, with the occasional 7 foot wave out closer to 20nm. High pressure then returns to the area on Wednesday allowing winds to subside and become generally calm before a cold front passes through later Thursday. This may create another round of SCAs for portions of the waters into early Friday. Seas will briefly build to 4-5ft, with waves in the Bay returning to the 3-4ft level. Another low looks to develop offshore on Saturday, though guidance currently keeps local winds below advisory thresholds. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ633- 635>638. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ |
| #1253450 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1137 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Near to slightly below freezing temperatures is possible overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. - Rain chances return Wednesday night through Friday due to another coastal low and incoming cold front with the greatest coverage of the showers and isolated thunderstorms likely remaining along the coast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Another chilly night is expected across SE Texas with light winds and mostly clear skies. Temperatures by daybreak will be in low to mid 40s along and south of I-10, and then mid to upper 30s north of I-10 with parts of the Piney Woods approaching freezing. We do warm up on Wednesday as southeasterly flow returns with high pressure sliding to the east. High temperatures Wednesday afternoon will rise into the mid to upper 60s for much of the area, and into the upper 50s to low 60s in the Brazos Valley to Piney Woods region. The southeasterly flow will not just usher in warmer temperatures, but also increase moisture across the area leading to increasing clouds during the day and then a return of rain chances as early as Wednesday evening with rain chances continuing for parts of the region through Friday. A weak coastal low is expected to develop late Wednesday night into Thursday. The model trend the past few runs has been for less rain coverage/intensity for our area, and shifting the heaviest of the rains either off shore or into LA - however we can still expect widespread light to moderate rainfall and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday. Also cannot out-rule some isolated locally heavy rainfall along and south of I-10. The passage of a weak cold front on Friday will begin to end the rainfall chances inland, but lingering moisture and passing upper level disturbances may lead to isolated coastal showers through the day on Friday and possibly into early Saturday morning. It won`t be until a reinforcing front pushes through this weekend that fully clears out the lingering moisture and ushering in a strong surface high pressure. Rain totals through Saturday morning will be generally up to 0.5 to 1" across much of the area, but isolated higher totals of 2-3" possible along the coast. And the majority of this rainfall will be falling late Wednesday night through Thursday. WPC does maintain a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall along the coast during this timeframe. Overcast skies and rainy conditions will keep us cool on Thursday with highs only in the mid 50s to low 60s, and then that passing cold front on Friday and continued cloudy skies will keep temperatures in the low to mid 50s during the day. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s north of I-10, and then mid 40s to low 50s south of I-10 to the coast. Fowler && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 523 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 VFR conditions along with light VRB winds are expected tonight. Cigs will lower to MVFR on Wed and winds will turn E to SE and increase to 5-10KT. Some models show a weak llvl jet moving over SE TX in the afternoon and could lead to gusts of around 20KT at times. By the end of the TAF period, we may see some showers starting to develop inland. Showers and thunderstorms will be on the rise after 00-06Z Thu, thus expect the mention of SHRA/TSRA near the end of the next TAF period. Cotto && .MARINE... Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Light southeasterly winds will develop by daybreak Wednesday with winds increasing to around 15kt by Wednesday afternoon. A coastal low is expected to develop late Wednesday night into Thursday bringing not only widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms, but also moderate to strong northeasterly winds on the north side of the system. Small Craft Advisories may be needed as early as Thursday morning with northeasterly winds increasing to 15-25kt, and seas climbing to 4-6ft. The system will push to the east late Thursday into Friday leading to a lowering of the winds, but lingering moisture will lead to scattered shower activity through Saturday morning. Patchy fog will also be possible as the high moisture and lowering winds overlap. Light to occasionally moderate northeasterly winds will then persist through the weekend. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 36 61 51 54 / 0 20 70 50 Houston (IAH) 40 65 55 60 / 0 20 80 70 Galveston (GLS) 49 70 63 66 / 0 30 80 80 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1253449 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1240 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Moderate Rip Current Risk At Area Beaches Today - Patchy Frost For Inland Southeast GA This Morning and Thursday Morning - Extreme Drought for Inland Areas - Potential for Locally Heavy Rain SE GA Friday & Saturday && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Cool drier air associated with high pressure will build in over the region today, following the previous nights frontal passage, with calm weather and mild winds throughout today and tonight. Patchy early morning frost developments are expected over inland southeast Georgia early this morning before clearing with the sunrise. Patchy frost conditions are expected to return during the early AM hours tonight and extend into early Thursday morning. High temperatures today will rise into the mid to upper 50s and lower 60s over southeast Georgia and in the mid to upper 60s and lower 70s over northeast Florida. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid 30s for inland southeast Georgia and in the lower to mid 40s over inland northeast Florida and in the 40s and lower 50s for areas along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... By Thursday, an area of low pressure near the Gulf Coast will begin lifting a warm front across Florida. Moisture will gradually increase from the southwest, most notably across north of I-10 will 700-400 mb WSW flow starts to prime the atmosphere. Skies will trend from mostly sunny in the morning to mostly cloudy by afternoon especially across SE Georgia and Suwannee Valley. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than Wednesday, with highs in the mid 60s across SE GA and the upper 60s to lower 70s across Northeast FL. Dry conditions will persist most of the day, though a few light showers or sprinkles may develop over the far interior SE GA during the afternoon continuing into the nocturnal hours. Thursday night, cloud cover will continue to increase as deep moisture streams northward ahead of the approaching Gulf System. Lows will be warmer, generally in mid 40s for inland SE GA and low to mid 50s across NE FL. Northeast winds will remain around 5 to 10 mph. Shower chances will rise overnight, especially SE GA and the Suwannee Valley where POPS range 25 to 45 percent, with likely POPS near the Ocmulgee River Basin. By Friday morning, the warm front will lift north toward I-10 corridor and is expected to reach near Waycross by early Friday evening. This will bring increasing moisture and warmer temperatures. Highs will reach the mid 70s to near 80 degrees across much of NE and N Central FL, while SE GA will see mid 60s to lower 70s. Showers will embedded thunderstorms will become more widespread, especially during the afternoon and evening hours, with highest coverage across SE GA, the Suwannee Valley, and areas north of I-10. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook indicates a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall across of SE GA. The cold front will press and then push through SE GA late Friday morning and stall near the I-10 corridor by daybreak Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The cold front will finally push south of the area by late Saturday night into Sunday morning as the associated low lifts northeastward. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected through Saturday afternoon and evening. Rain chances will gradually decrease Saturday night, though scattered showers are anticipated into Sunday. With southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the front on Saturday, deep Gulf moisture transport will support periods of heavy rainfall with some guidance suggesting 2 to 4 inches across portions of Southeast Georgia. The marginal risk for excessive rainfall shifts southward Saturday to include most of SE GA and NE FL as the front progresses through the region. From Sunday night through Tuesday, a drier and colder airmass will settle over the area under building high pressure. Temperatures will fall below normal for early December, with highs in the lower to mid 60s and overnight lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Guidance also suggest another, albeit drier, reinforcing front boundary Monday, supporting cool and dry conditions with good model agreement. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... The 06Z TAF period will feature ceilings will continue to lower to low end MVFR levels 1.0-1.5 kft, with IFR level tempo restrictions in stratus late tonight after 08Z at times through 13Z. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR after 14Z Wednesday during the morning hours, and continue through the afternoon with light northwest winds. Light winds and high clouds will prevail tonight. && .MARINE... Troughing will linger over coastal waters into Wednesday, as high pressure builds to the northwest. The high will build to the north Thursday. An area of low pressure will move northeast out of the Gulf Friday, with the frontal system associated with this low lingering over the region through the weekend. Rip Currents: SE GA Low Today and Moderate Thursday NE FL Moderate Today and Thursday && .FIRE WEATHER... Light northwest winds become established later this afternoon, with Poor to Fair dispersions developing on Wednesday, becoming Poor by Thursday. The next round of showers and storms expected Thursday evening into the upcoming weekend as an area of low pressure will lift northeast out of the Gulf late in the week, bringing another cold front to push across the area during the upcoming weekend. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Patchy frost possible Tonight and Wednesday Night for interior locations in southeast Georgia. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 35 58 45 60 / 0 30 50 70 SSI 44 63 52 68 / 0 10 30 40 JAX 41 68 51 77 / 0 10 20 30 SGJ 48 69 56 78 / 0 0 10 10 GNV 43 71 53 79 / 0 0 10 20 OCF 45 73 54 80 / 0 0 10 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1253448 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1145 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1145 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 - Heavy rainfall potential sets up Thursday through the end of the week. - A moderate rip current risk returns for the beaches of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Cold air advection processes and post frontal clouds contribute to a chilly day today. May be some patchy drizzle here and there but measurable precipitation is not expected. Aloft, a west southwest flow is shown in the 02.12Z upper air data with drier deep layer air spreading eastward over the deep south. In the lower levels and at the surface, a shallow post frontal, cold season subsidence inversion appears to be in place tonight which would support overnight clouds causing havoc with mins. Taking a look at satellite imagery, with low level overcast hanging back well west, back into Arkansas and Louisiana lends credence to make an upward adjustment to tonight`s lows ranging 29 to 34 north of I-10 and upper 30s/lower 40s closer to the coast. Wednesday remains dry and cool as high pressure eases eastward over the deep south. The upper level pattern once again becomes active in short order as we move into the close of the week. A positively tilted upper trof diving into the 4-Corners of the Desert Southwest becomes increasingly elongated and splits through Thursday as the northern portion continues across the northeast states. The remainder of the upper trof will be located roughly over the central Plains to across the southwest states on Thursday and into Friday. Ahead of this feature, a stream of enhanced environmental moisture sets up from the southeast US, all the way back to southwest of the Baja. The pattern resembles an upper level atmospheric river where a series of mid-level impulses will be moving across. At the surface, a series of frontal low pressure systems begin to form off the Texas coast by Thursday AM with PoPs increasing from west to east as early as Wednesday night as larger scale lift increases/expands. We could very well see a pattern similar to the one Monday night where a wave of frontal low pressure skirts east northeast near the coast or more over the marine area Friday. Will need to closely monitor the trajectory of the surface low and attendant warm front/warm sector as the potential would exist for more surface based convection south of this feature. Too early to assess storm risk, mode and placement at this time. Likely to categorical pops though remain unchanged for both Thursday and Friday. There is a signal for modest probabilities in the longer range guidance for the potential of heavy rain the end of the week too. Considering this, a marginal risk of excessive rainfall is outlooked for the central Gulf coast Thursday and Friday. Forecasters maintain a chance to perhaps likely PoPs into the day Saturday before rain chances diminish the remainder of the period. Daytime highs remain cool the remainder of the week and may need lower adjustments Thursday and Friday considering clouds and overrunning rainfall. Nights also remain cool. A high risk of rip currents remains today, transitioning to a moderate risk for Tuesday night. A low risk follows for Wednesday and Thursday then a moderate risk is expected for Friday. /10 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Regional surface observations and satellite imagery are detecting solid ceiling ranging from 900-1400 feet over the entire area. Given the abundant moisture trapped below a subsidence inversion, these ceilings will persist through daybreak Wednesday. The clouds are expected to clear out by 15-18z Wednesday at the latest. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 A moderate offshore flow this evening begins to subside late in the night. Light north to northeast winds Wednesday become easterly Thursday and begin to gradually increase through the course of the day. A wave of frontal low pressure is progged to move east northeast across area waters Friday morning. A return to building seas the end of the week. Rains also increase late in the week with perhaps embedded storms. /10 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 32 57 42 53 / 0 0 40 90 Pensacola 37 58 47 55 / 0 0 30 80 Destin 39 59 47 58 / 0 0 20 70 Evergreen 30 58 37 53 / 0 0 10 80 Waynesboro 26 56 35 48 / 0 0 40 80 Camden 28 53 33 49 / 0 0 10 70 Crestview 31 59 38 53 / 0 0 10 70 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1253447 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:33 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1216 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1214 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 - Cooler overnight temperatures are expected over the next several days. - A drawn out rainfall event could bring rainfall totals of 2-4 inches by the end of the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 202 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 Currently, all of the precipitation has now pushed eastward out of our forecast area along with a weak area of low pressure. A cold front will continue to push eastward through this evening, bringing significantly cooler temperatures overnight tonight through Thursday morning. Temperatures will generally be in the mid to upper 30s for the overnight lows, and mid 50s to lower 60s for the daytime highs. Areas along the coast can expect to stay a bit warmer. This is trending around 5 to 7 degrees below normal for most of our forecast area. An area of high pressure will then settle in by Wednesday. With some dry stable air in place, expect clearing skies and a quick break from the rain before the next round of precipitation is expected to start as early as Thursday for our western areas. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 202 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 In the latter half of the week, a positively tilted, longwave trough lee of the Rockies enables moisture to build up ahead it. This moisture will begin to creep into the forecast region Thursday night into Friday as troughing pushes eastward. With this afternoon and Wednesday remaining cool and dry post-frontal, this moisture will support the next chance of precipitation. The frontal system is expected to slowly drag through the region into the weekend. Cool temps lingering from the previous cold front will create a weak environment profile with low instability, decreasing the chance for widespread severe storms. Any chance of severe storms would be Friday night into Saturday along the coast where southerly flow pushes warmer unstable air inland. Extensive stratiform rain is expected across the region Friday and Saturday with areas reaching upwards of three inches of rainfall. While significant rain is anticipated this weekend, flooding concerns should remain low. The region is in a D4 drought, and the dry will allow the ground to absorb much of the incoming rain. As a result, this weekend`s rain should be beneficial. The front will slowly push southward Saturday night into Sunday leaving behind a cool, dry airmass. Another shortwave trough will dig into the eastern US Sunday night into Monday, pushing cooler temps northward down further to the region at the start of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 A stratus deck is entrenched over the area and is not anticipated to go anywhere the rest of tonight into Wednesday morning. MVFR to IFR ceilings prevail through at least mid-morning at most TAF sites with some potential of them lingering into early Thursday afternoon. VFR conditions are forecast once the stratus deck lifts out. Otherwise, light to moderate northerly winds are anticipated through the TAF period. A few high clouds begin entering from the west near the end of the TAF period and signify our next storm system for Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 202 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 An area of low pressure will exit east of the waters this afternoon. In its wake, a cold front will push across the waters. High pressure will pass east across the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas on Wednesday and Thursday, causing moderate northerlies on Wednesday to clock around easterly on Thursday. Another wave of low pressure will track east near the Panhandle coast on Friday, followed by a slow- moving cold front on Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 202 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 Most areas received at least a bit of rain today, with another round expected to start Thursday as we transition to a wetter pattern. A quick shot of dry stable air tomorrow will keep dispersion levels low into Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 202 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 The Monday night/Tuesday morning system delivered beneficial rainfall across much of the area, especially within areas along and west of the Apalachicola/Chattahoochee/Flint River Basin (ACF). Most areas from ACF westward through Southeast Alabama and the FL Panhandle saw 1.5-2.5 inches of rain, while areas to the east nearing I-75 saw much less, generally around an inch or less. This wasn`t a drought buster, but it was certain a step toward improving drought conditions, mainly in the western portion of our area if the rain keeps coming our way. The focus now shifts to the system Saturday and Sunday where potentially two waves of rainfall could impact the region with storm totals of 2-4 inches of rain possible. This, coupled with the recent rains could lead to drought improvement across the entire region. In terms of flood threat, there is no riverine threat as this weekend`s system should largely be stratiform in nature and rivers are so low at this time, any streams would remain well below even action levels. The flash flood thread is also really low given soil conditions and expected low rainfall rates. The only concern would be training bands producing rainfall amounts greater than 3-4 inches over urban areas. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 41 62 49 69 / 0 30 40 70 Panama City 45 60 49 69 / 0 50 60 80 Dothan 37 54 45 61 / 0 60 70 90 Albany 35 57 45 61 / 0 40 70 90 Valdosta 36 62 48 67 / 0 30 40 70 Cross City 41 70 50 75 / 0 0 10 30 Apalachicola 48 63 53 71 / 0 30 40 60 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ early this morning for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1253446 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:33 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1226 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will exit the region tonight. High pressure will them prevail through middle of this week before another frontal system impacts the area Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... High pressure centered across the Ohio River Valley will slowly expand east across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, supporting dry and cooler air spreading across the local area within a west- northwest wind this evening, then north wind after midnight. Cold air advection will help keep low-lvl wind fields somewhat mixed, while lingering low-lvl moisture supports some degree of low clouds across the region. The setup favors overnight lows in the mid 30s inland to low-mid 40s across coastal counties. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure will extend into the region on Wednesday. Quieter weather is expected with highs leaning on the cooler side of normal. On Thursday, high pressure will largely persist. Meanwhile, low pressure will begin to take shape over the northern Gulf. Moisture will begin to increase from the southwest, and models hint at weak shortwave energy passing through later in the day. Latest NBM indicates only a small chance (20%) of measurable rainfall (>0.01") Thursday afternoon over interior southeast Georgia, but by and large, most areas will remain dry through the daylight hours. The aforementioned low is expected to lift northeast from the Gulf and into the region Thursday night into Friday. The atmosphere will continue to moisten with PWats expected to surge to near 1.5 inches which is well above normal for this time of year per SPC sounding climatology. This will coincide with an increase in isentropic ascent and large scale forcing which will lead to increasing coverage of showers through the day. Looking at QPF clusters, majority of ensemble members show the entire area receiving beneficial rainfall through the daytime hours, but it`s worth noting that a small contingent (~20% of members) shows the bulk of rainfall focused more inland/over the Midlands through 00z. For now, our QPF indicates 0.25-0.75". Otherwise, there could be a notable temperature gradient between inland (cooler) and coastal locations (warmer) with a wedge set-up evolving. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The first half of the weekend will remain active with the axis of deeper moisture still oriented over the area. Model consensus indicates the area will remain ahead of a mid level trough axis and the area will also become positioned in the favorable right entrance region of the upper jet. These conditions would support another wave of precipitation developing on Saturday into Saturday night. There remains uncertainty on when rainfall will end, but at least half of ensemble members currently indicate dry conditions returning for Sunday and beyond. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Prior to the 6Z TAFs, nighttime microphysics indicated a large area of MVFR ceilings across the terminals. The restrictive ceilings should remain until a sfc trough or weak backdoor front pushes across KCHS and KJZI around dawn. The passage of the trough will result in light winds to shift from the northeast along with lifting of cloud bases. Based on satellite trends, conditions over KCHS and KJZI are forecast to improve to VFR by 14Z. The sfc trough may push south, slowing or becoming stationary near the Savannah River by late this morning. As a result, MVFR ceilings over KSAV may linger until early this afternoon. Also, winds at KSAV may remain from the northwest through the TAF period. Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions, possibly to IFR or lower, are expected in low clouds and rain Friday into the weekend. && .MARINE... Tonight: Conditions will steadily improve over the waters overnight as low pressure exits the area. The Small Craft Advisory for the South Santee-Edisto Beach nearshore leg was cancelled as seas have dropped below 6 ft there based on report from 41004 and the Charleston Harbor Pilot Buoy. The advisory continues for a bit longer for the Georgia offshore leg. Wednesday through Sunday: No marine concerns through mid week. Northerly winds will average around 10 knots or less with seas 2-3 feet. Low pressure is expected to pass across the region Friday into Friday night. Winds should turn more southerly ahead of it and increase in speed, but conditions are currently forecast to stay below small craft advisory criteria. Another wave of low pressure could pass through later in the weekend. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides will continue to rise with the morning high tide cycles through Friday and remain elevated through the weekend. Coastal Flood Advisories will likely be needed for morning high tide cycles, primarily at Charleston Harbor (Charleston and Coastal Colleton counties) through late week. There is concern for minor coastal flooding to occur from Beaufort county south across the Georgia coast with the morning high tide on Friday. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1253445 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:33 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1225 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 305 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 - Scattered showers and isolated lightning storms remain possible ahead of an approaching cold front. - Dry conditions forecast through mid to late week. Cool Wednesday, then warming Thursday and Friday. - Another front late this week or early next week brings the next chances of rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 Rest of Today-Tonight...Breezy and sloppy conditions early today improve some, but isolated to scattered showers and possibly a lightning storm marching across the area remain possible ahead of a front pushing across the peninsula tonight. A tight pressure gradient across the area between the approaching front and its parent low pressure system pushing offshore the Mid Atlantic and high pressure in the western Atlantic is producing southwest to west winds 15-20 mph with gusts 30-35 mph this afternoon, which will begin to ease later in the evening as the low departs. Middling instability through the morning and early afternoon had kept deep convection limited to just a couple heavier showers, but skies have cleared going into the later afternoon offering some destabilization, which combined with the substantial deep linear shear, has been supporting more scattered deep convection at times. However, while instability has increased some, a band of drier air above 700mb swinging across the peninsula has created a new hurdle to updrafts, and starting to look like there might be too much shear for the instability. All in all, isolated thunderstorms capable of occasional cloud to ground lighting still remain possible, and with storms moving quickly to the east- northeast at 30-40 mph, it won`t take much to get a storm gust to 40-55 mph. At least the quick storm motion means downpours will be brief and rainfall accumulations minimal (less than half an inch for even locations that get multiple rounds). Above normal afternoon highs in the L-M80s. Rain and storm chances taper off after peak daytime heating as the only source of instability goes to bed. The front then pushes through overnight, scouring out moisture in the process and clearing out any lingering rain chances. We`ll start to cool off tonight, with lows dropping into the M50-M60s. Wednesday-Friday...Fairly pleasant through mid to late week. High pressure builds into the Deep South and Mid Atlantic behind the front Wednesday, then is shuffled offshore and south Thursday by a large deepening low pressure system well to our north pushing into the Canadian Maritimes, and a strung out low pressure system developing in the northern Gulf. The ridge axis from high pressure over the Atlantic extending towards the Florida peninsula will slide south Friday as the Gulf low slips quickly eastward north of us and the attendant cold front stalls across the Southeast. Northerly winds 5-10 mph Wednesday under the high will bring dry conditions and seasonably cool afternoon highs in the U60-L70s, but chilly overnight lows in the U40s-L60s. We start warming back up Thursday as winds begin to shift onshore, bringing afternoon highs up to the 70s for everyone and overnight lows to the M50-M60s, then quickly warming Friday as winds become southerly ahead of the next front, again at 5-10 mph, bringing afternoon highs to the U70s-L80s and overnight lows into the 60s. Saturday-Monday (Modified Previous Discussion)...GFS continues to be slower than the ECM with early next week`s frontal passage, the former pushing the front through Monday and the latter Sunday. Either way, moisture increases across the area this weekend ahead of the front with PoPs of 30-40pct on Sat during the day north of a Melbourne-Kenansville line and 10-20pct PoPs southward, increasing to 30-50pct across pretty much the whole area Sat night, then settling near 40pct for Sun. Isold thunder cannot be ruled out, but we have yet to include this mention in the grids/zones. Guidance keeps a small PoP in for Mon (for now) due to uncertainty how quickly the front will push through and moisture is scoured out. Highs look to remain above normal in the U70s/L80s for Sat and will likely fall back into the 70s for Sun (between cloud cover and influence from the faster ECM solution), with a cooling trend continuing into Mon - U60s to M70s for maxes. Lows in the U50s to L60s Sat night/Sun morning, and generally 50s most everywhere Sun night/Mon morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 305 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 Rest Today-Tonight...Winds and seas begin to improve but boating conditions remain at best unfavorable and generally poor to hazardous. Winds topping out at 15-25 kts with gusts 30-35 kts from the SW this afternoon ease and veer through the night, settling to the NNW-NW 10-15 kts late tonight. Was able to cancel the Small Craft Advisory for nearshore Volusia a bit early (small craft should continue to exercise caution), but advisories remain in effect for all Central Florida Atlantic offshore waters through 4 PM, and the Volusia-Brevard segments through 10 PM, though may be able to drop those sooner as well. Seas 3-5 ft nearshore and 4-7 ft offshore subside to 3-5 ft across the waters late tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms capable of occasional cloud to ground lightning will be possible across the local Atlantic waters through the evening, then chances decrease overnight. Storms and heavy showers will move very quickly the east-northeast at over 25-35 kts, increasing potential for even moderate convection to produce locally high gusts over 35 kts. Wednesday-Saturday (Modified Previous Discussion)...Winds and seas become favorable from mid-late week as high pressure builds over the area. Northerly (~ 10 kts) winds on Wed veer onshore by Thu becoming southerly by late Fri and SWRLY by Fri night/Sat. The pressure gradient may tighten a bit Fri night/Sat as a low pressure system slides north of the area. Seas will quickly subside to 2-4 ft late Wed into Fri, but may increase to 5 ft well offshore Cape northward Fri night/Sat. Generally dry Wed-Fri, but may see some precip chances creep back into the picture Fri night- Sat as moisture increases ahead of the next approaching front for later in the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1225 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 CIGs are forecast to drop to MVFR/IFR areawide early this morning, with observations at LEE and DAB already supporting this. Stratus will build southward, with TEMPOs in effect from 08-12Z for the lower CIGs. VFR conditions are forecast to return late this morning, with prevailing NNW winds 5 to 10 knots through the day. Dry conditions are anticipated through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 71 52 72 59 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 75 55 77 60 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 75 58 76 63 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 77 57 77 61 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 72 50 75 58 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 73 52 75 59 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 73 54 76 60 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 78 57 78 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1253444 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:18 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1210 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1206 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 - A few scattered showers remain possible today although most locales will remain dry. Drier conditions return Wednesday. - Temperatures will be well above average today with the potential of values approaching record values along the east coast for today`s date. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1207 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 Mesoanalysis this afternoon indicates a low level boundary layer across South Florida that is representative of being located in the warm sector of a frontal boundary draped across northern Florida and attendant weak surface low pressure. While a line of waning convection associated with a pre-frontal trough continues to advect eastward, ACARS data from area airports reveal an atmosphere not conducive for widespread rain chances (and accumulations) this afternoon with copious amounts of dry air just above the surface. Diurnal mixing will help mix some of the drier air down to the surface which will result in a spatial limit of convection for the remainder of today, especially overland. The aforementioned breezy southerly to southwesterly flow will usher in ample warm air advection and temperatures that are well above average for this time of year. Forecast high temperatures at all three east coast climate sites (KMIA, KFLL, KPBI) may approach, tie, or even break maximum high temperature records for the date. The NBM QMD 50th percentile indicate the potential of slightly higher values than current forecast. ECMWF`s Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) also depicts the potential of near-record heat today with a continual trend of higher forecast values to the right of the CDF profile. Slight alterations in wind speed and cloud cover may make the different between getting close to or tying/breaking records at our east coast climate sites this afternoon. Winds will veer to a westerly than northwesterly direction overnight, lessening in intensity. Forecast model soundings indicate the potential of a deck of low stratus moving across South Florida between midnight and daybreak as the frontal boundary sweeps across the region. With the onset of diurnal heating on Wednesday, the stratus deck will gradually lift and mix out. Comfortable dewpoints courtesy of a continental airmass will arrive into the region during the day on Wednesday, resulting in temperatures closer to average for this time of the year but still a few degrees above average. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 211 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 Patchy to areas of dense fog once again looks likely across inland and SW Florida due to winds becoming light and variable overnight in those areas and adequate near-surface level moisture. Winds should be moderate enough to avoid fog development for most of the east coast metro, although won`t rule out some patchy fog for the western fringes of the metro. Latest probabilistic guidance indicates between 50-70% chance for fog to lower visibilities to 0.5 miles or less across interior and SW Florida with 10-20% closer to the Gulf coast. Therefore, areas of fog are forecast for the interior and SW Florida with inland Gulf coast and far western east coast metro areas forecast to see patchy fog. As far as the latest analysis for the next couple of days, ensembles show an upper level ridge centered over the Caribbean Sea and extending over Central and South Florida. This will prevent a shortwave trough over the central U.S. from penetrating southwards as it shifts east, although the attendant cold front from this trough will advect southwards and push through the area likely on Wednesday morning. While this boundary will add a source of lift for precipitation chances to increase, it will be a rather weak frontal passage with drier air aloft inhibiting instability and a lack of surface heating due to it arriving late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Thus, while some light shower activity is forecast for portions of the area today, they will be of the weak variety and of limited duration which leads to no concerns. The showers today and into this evening will target mostly SW Florida as flow shifts out of the SW and coastal convergence will occur on the Gulf side rather than the Atlantic side like the past few days. The frontal boundary will also move through SW Florida first before SE Florida. After the frontal boundary passes, overall dry weather is expected to return for Wednesday. High temperatures for today and are expected in the low to mid 80s with highs tomorrow around 80 to the low 80s. Overnight lows Tuesday night will range from the low 60s over interior South Florida to the mid to upper 60s near the coasts. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 211 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 A drier air mass will settle into the region in the wake of the passing frontal boundary on Wednesday along with an upper level ridge maintaining its presence across South Florida through the end of the week, which will keep dry and calm weather in place for the end of this week and into the weekend. As the weekend progresses, guidance is hinting at the next longwave trough amplifying and pushing across the eastern U.S. heading into next week. If this trend continues, slight rain chances will arise again as flow would shift out of the south as the trough advects across the central and eastern U.S., which in return will increase moisture availability across South Florida and weaken the upper level ridge. Guidance also hints that this trough could be a little more robust than the shortwave in the middle of this week, meaning that it will have a greater chance to produce rain showers. However, with this being at the tail end of the forecast period, uncertainty is high in this trough`s amplification and progression and thus we will have to monitor trends over the next several days. Regardless, no major impacts from this area of low pressure are expected. Temperatures will be on a slight warming trend for the end of the week and this weekend with highs expected to reach the mid to upper 80s by this weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 MVFR/IFR CIGs are still looking probable in the late night hours tonight with a frontal passage. This is expected to last until around 15Z or so when the cloud base begins to lift. Winds will increase out of the N/NNW today but will be generally light, typically not exceeding 5-7 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 1207 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 Breezy southerly to southwesterly winds will continue today out ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. A brief period of hazardous winds will continue across the northern Atlantic waters through 4pm this afternoon. Therefore, a small craft advisory continues for our northeastern Atlantic waters with cautionary conditions expected elsewhere today. Winds will decrease in the wake of the frontal passage for Wednesday and into the end of the week. Seas will be generally 1-2 ft in the Gulf and 2-4 ft in the Atlantic. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1207 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 Winds will remain out of the south to southwest today, which will assist in decreasing the rip current risk, with a moderate risk now in effect for all of the Atlantic coast beaches for the remainder of today. An elevated risk may continue into the late week period for portions of the Atlantic coast. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1207 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 Today`s Forecasted High Temperature Values: Miami (KMIA): 85 Fort Lauderdale (KFLL): 84 West Palm Beach (KPBI): 86 75th Percentile High Temperature Values: Miami (KMIA): 86 Fort Lauderdale (KFLL): 85 West Palm Beach (KPBI): 87 Today`s Record Maximum High Temperature Values: Miami (KMIA): 86 Fort Lauderdale (KFLL): 87 West Palm Beach (KPBI): 87 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 83 66 82 69 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 84 63 82 65 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 83 65 82 68 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 83 66 82 68 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 81 66 80 69 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 82 66 80 69 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 84 65 83 68 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 82 63 80 68 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 83 64 81 69 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 80 60 82 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1253443 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:03 AM 03.Dec.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1053 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1042 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 - Temperatures look to briefly warm up Wednesday as southeasterly winds bring warmer air to the region. - A cold front Thursday will cool temperatures back off and increase rain chances. Overcast skies and periods of light rain or drizzle will likely continue Friday. - Adverse marine conditions return on Thursday in wake of a cold front, with Small Craft Exercise Caution and/or Small Craft Advisory headlines possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1042 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Southeasterly winds are briefly forecast to return Wednesday, which will likely allow for WAA to increase high temperatures back to the 70s to low 80s across the area Wednesday afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy skies could limit the heating, however the bulk of the model guidance is in good agreement on afternoon temperatures Wednesday. The main outlier is the NAM, which is holding on to the northerly winds and keeping temperatures cooler. While the NAM tends to handle advancing cold fronts well, it has a tendency to hold on to the cold air for too long. Likewise, low temperatures Wednesday night are forecast to increase to the upper 50s to mid 60s. These warmer temperatures will likely be short lived, as another cold front is forecast to move through the area Thursday morning. This will complicate the high temperature forecast on Thursday, as the high will likely occur in the morning, ahead of the front. Temperatures in the northern portions of the CWA likely wont increase much above the Wednesday night low before the front arrives. On the other hand, temperatures along the Rio Grande may be able to increase to the 70s or low 80s before the front arrives. Low temperatures Thursday night look to fall back to the upper 40s to low 50s across the area. Rain chances will also increase with the front, and in the wake of it, as persistent southerly 850mb flow looks to advect moisture over the shallow cold layer. Overcast skies and periods of light rain or drizzle will likely persist into the weekend. This overrunning pattern looks to finally break down Saturday night or Sunday as a deep upper level trough traversing the Central US shifts the low-level flow to the northwest, advecting dry air to the region. Sunny to mostly sunny skies and near zero rain chances will then continue into early next week. Low temperatures will likely remain in the 50s Friday night through the end of the period. Northerly winds and overcast skies will likely keep limit daytime heating on Friday, keeping the high temperatures fairly close to the Thursday night low temperatures. NBM guidance is coming in well above that, about 15 degrees above the low. Mixing in NAM brings the diurnal swing to a more reasonable 8-10 degrees, but that may still be on the high side. High temperatures do look to increase Saturday, as decreased cloud cover will likely allow for more daytime heating. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1042 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 MVFR ceilings will prevail at BRO and HRL through much of the forecast period. MFE however, will see a mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings through Wednesday afternoon. Winds will remain light and variable overnight with southeasterly winds picking up slightly by midday Wednesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1042 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Favorable marine conditions will likely persist through Wednesday night. A cold front moving south through the area Thursday will likely bring stronger northerly winds and increased seas Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines or Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for that time period. Generally favorable conditions look to return by Friday afternoon, and continue through the remainder of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 59 55 78 68 / 10 10 10 10 HARLINGEN 59 51 78 64 / 10 0 10 10 MCALLEN 60 55 79 67 / 10 0 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 63 49 80 62 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 63 58 77 73 / 10 10 20 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 60 54 77 67 / 10 10 20 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
