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| #1274099 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:24 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 908 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Have issued small craft advisories for our waters starting on Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Last dry day today. 2) Warm front/coastal trough moves through Sunday morning, with above average rain chances Sunday into midweek. Marine: SCA conditions develop Sunday into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1..Southerly onshore flow and a mix of high clouds and diurnal Cu will be the name of the game this afternoon as high pressure continues to shift further offshore. This mornings upper air sounding still shows pretty widespread dry air across ENC today so outside of some increasing cloud cover as moisture continues to advect in moistening up the atm profile, not expecting much in the way of rain this afternoon. Highs get into the low 90s to upper 80s inland and mid 80s along the coast and OBX today. KEY MESSAGE 2...We enter into an unsettled pattern once again starting tonight into Sunday with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms into at least mid week. Upper level trough currently in the Midwest will dive SE`wards into the Tennessee River Valley Sun into Mon eventually stalling as an upper level ridge blocks this troughs forward progress. At the mid levels, will see multiple shortwaves round the base of this trough promoting periods of lift across ENC and the offshore waters with the first weak mid level shortwave tracking along the coast starting tonight into Sun morning with additional shortwaves coming in from the west Sun afternoon and again on Mon/Tue. At the surface, closed low in the Midwest will gradually shift E`wards into the Ohio River Valley with its associated surface front stalling just to the west. These features, in addition to the sea breeze each afternoon/evening, will be the main forcing present for a notable increase in precip chances. Starting later tonight into Sun there will be two areas of focus for shower and thunderstorm activity. The first will be overnight into Sun morning along and behind a N`ward moving warm front/coastal trough with much of the activity occuring near and east of Hwy 17. We should still be too dry aloft inland as the boundary moves through, so thunder chances remain low inland Sun morning. Proximity to the gulf stream could allow isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to reach coastal communities south of Oregon Inlet. The second will be in the afternoon/evening with shower and thunderstorm activity coming in from the west associated with the stalling upper trough. Cloud cover will play a big role in how high instability can truly get, but with the dewpoints rising there should be enough instability entering the region for 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE Sunday. While shear is not too impressive with the unidirectional SE flow, the combination of long, skinny CAPEs, PWATs over 2", and slow storm motions could result in heavy rainfall rates and wet microbursts where storms develop. The best coverage is expected to be to our west closer to I-95, with more isolated to scattered coverage across the Coastal Plain but will continue to monitor trends in the CAM guidance and adjust PoPs accordingly. Monday the trough will remain stalled to our west and gradually weaken. This reduces the potential for height falls over the region despite the trough creeping a bit closer. Still, we should see embedded shortwaves moving through aloft. Slightly better forcing, paired with another day of long skinny CAPEs and PWATs north of 2" brings higher precip chances compared to Sunday with heavy rainfall rates, a low end wet microburst threat, and slow storm motion vectors. All this brings flash flooding concerns to mind, especially with how much rain has been observed in many locations in the past 1-2 weeks. We are currently in a Marginal (level 1/5) Excessive Rain Outlook for Sunday and Monday with best chances at seeing flash flooding likely along Hwy 17 and points east. What prevents it from being higher is the uncertainty on instability with antecedent cloud cover and the lack of substantial ground-level forcing. With high temps forecast to only be in the low to mid 80s Monday, the sea breeze may be weak in nature. Beyond Monday, the trough/low is still expected to linger to our west until eventually it gets picked up and shifted to our north by another trough moving through the Great Lakes region. As a result, daily elevated precip chances continue through mid-week with a low end risk for flash flooding. By the end of the week it looks like we return back to climo or below climo PoPs as a lack of mid level shortwaves or significant forcing will be noted across ENC though we do begin to warm back up with temps returning to the upper 80s to low 90s inland and mid 80s along the OBX. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail through much of the TAF period, however there will be opportunities for sub-VFR conditions at times. A wetter pattern will begin to develop late tonight into Sunday bringing an increased chance showers that could bring occasional sub-VFR conditions to the terminals. Initially, coastal sections will have the better chance for showers with onshore flow, then will expand inland through the day Sunday. May also see a period of MVFR cigs as the LCL`s rise from around daybreak through the morning hours with highest probs across western rtes. Southerly flow will also increase Sunday with gusts around 20-25 kt during the afternoon. Outlook (Sunday night through Thursday): Periods of sub-VFR ceilings/vis are possible Sun night into early next week as ENC enters into a more unsettled period of weather with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms with a stalled upper trough off to the west. Precip chances and thus the threat for sub-VFR conditions look to decrease beyond Wed. && .MARINE... Biggest chance on this update was the inclusion of small craft advisories starting on Sunday across all near shore coastal waters and inland waters. Ongoing 5-10 kt S-SE`rly winds with gusts up to 15 kts will continue into tonight with winds becoming more S-SW`rly and increasing to 15-25 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts late Sun morning into Sun afternoon. IN response to the strengthening winds Sun, expect ongoing 1-3 ft seas across our coastal waters to build late Sun morning to 4-8 ft by Sun evening, thus resulting in widespread SCA conditions. In addition to this as a weak warm front/ coastal trough lifts north across the area increasing shower and thunderstorm chances are likely starting from south to north Sun morning and persisting into the end of the period. Outlook (Sunday night through Thursday): Southerly winds remain elevated into Monday before gradually decreasing Mon afternoon and evening keeping SCA in place. Winds will ease first across the inland waters and N`rn sounds thus ending SCA`s by Mon morning here with SCA`s ending across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet by Mon evening. Expect more benign winds and seas from Tue onwards as weak high pressure builds over the area. In addition to the above, elevated chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain possible into midweek. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for NCZ195-196- 199-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ131-150-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ136- 137. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154-156-158. && $$ |
| #1274097 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:48 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 833 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION, UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Flood Watch for locations west of I-75. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts of 4 to 6 - Numerous TStorms this Weekend through Early Next Week. Strong Storm Potential Each Afternoon and Evening. Daily Rounds of Heavy Downpours May Cause Localized Flooding - Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches on Sunday && .UPDATE... The airmass has been worked over pretty good by this evening now with isolated showers or patchy rain over inland areas, which is likely to continue through late evening. There is likely to be some redevelopment of showers after midnight, and then perhaps a few tstorms toward the early morning hours mainly over inland northeast FL. With this in mind, have made a few adjustments to the rain chances rest of tonight but otherwise no other changes anticipated. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Main Highlights through Tonight: - Rounds of Showers and Thunderstorms, Isolated Strong Storms through the rest of Today - Locally Heavy rainfall and flooding Possible, mainly west of the I- 75 corridor Waves of showers and storms will persist through the rest of the afternoon as southwesterly flow will continue to bring tropical moisture into the area, with PWATs sitting in the 2"+ range. Current rainfall totals west of I-75 range between 1 and 3 inches, with the highest totals found in our far western locations of NE FL. With further development of showers and storms expected, could see reasonable higher totals of 4 to 6 inches for some locations. This area remains highlighted with a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall from WPC through the rest of Today and into Sunday, with Flood Watch currently in place through the Weekend. Activity will lessen by the overnight hours, but will still have some locations with some showers persisting into Sunday. The showers across the area is keeping most locations below 90F early this afternoon, with only locations along the SE GA coast in the lower 90s at this time. Overnight lows remain in the 70s. . Highs will be slightly lower than yesterday in the upper 80s along the I-75 corridor to the low 90s elsewhere. Overnight lows remain in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Rounds of Showers and Thunderstorms, Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible - Locally Heavy rainfall potential into Monday A Flood Watch remains in effect through Monday evening for Gilchrist, Suwannee, southwestern Columbia, western Alachua, and western Marion Counties. Persistent southwesterly flow will transport anomalously deep tropical moisture into the region, with precipitable water values surging to 2.2 to 2.4 inches, nearing daily record levels. On Sunday, a mid level trough over the southern Appalachians will elongate as Atlantic ridging builds westward. This pattern slows the frontal boundary northwest of the area and strengthens southwesterly flow. Abundant moisture, instability, and large scale ascent will support widespread showers and thunderstorms, initially across inland northeast Florida, expanding northward into southeast Georgia and eastward toward the I-95 corridor. Widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected west of I 75 through Monday, with localized amounts of 4 to 6 inches possible in areas of slow moving or training thunderstorms. Flooding remains a primary concern for low lying areas, urban centers, poor drainage locations, and small creeks. The Weather Prediction Center has maintained a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall across the Suwannee Valley and Flood Watch area, with a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for the remainder of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia through Sunday. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday and Monday, primarily producing damaging wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph, along with torrential rainfall and frequent lightning. Southwesterly winds will remain breezy at 10 to 15 mph, with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph. Monday, the upper trough evolves into a closed low, maintaining deep moisture and storm coverage through the evening. Temperatures will remain below normal, with highs in the mid to upper 80s inland and near 90 along the coast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Decreasing Coverage of Thunderstorms by Midweek - Heat advisories likely needed Wednesday through Friday The synoptic pattern will gradually shift mid week as the upper level low lifts northeast and Atlantic ridging expands across the Florida Peninsula. This transition will weaken the prevailing southwesterly flow, returning the region to a typical summertime sea breeze regime. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Tuesday as Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes merge near the US 17 corridor. From Wednesday through Thursday, the Atlantic surface ridge axis lifts into southeast Georgia, establishing southeasterly flow. This will push the Atlantic sea breeze inland, triggering collisions with the Gulf sea breeze between Highway 301 and I-75. By Friday, easterly flow will focus thunderstorm development well inland near the I-75 corridor, reducing rain chances at the coast. Temperatures will trend upward, reaching lower to middle 90s inland from Wednesday through Friday. Heat indices will climb back to 105 to 110 degrees across inland northeast Florida as rainfall and cloud coverage decrease. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... A challenging TAF forecast near and beyond 6 hours from now. Currently, VFR clouds with very little shower/tstorms activity, with most of the light rains west of a line from Waycross to Lake City at 00z. Expect increasing chances of showers and potential isolated storms late tonight into Sunday morning. Periods of MVFR SHRA/TSRA possible late tonight mainly around the GNV area, but even some MVFR cigs all terminals well before any precip arrives, which will be coming from the west or southwest. Anticipate more scattered to numerous showers and a few storms by mid morning and then becoming numerous for the aftn with mostly MVFR conditions prevailing. In addition, we have TEMPO and PROB30 groups for the showers and storms. Generally, looks like better IFR TSRA chances at GNV for Sunday. && .MARINE... A prevailing offshore wind flow is expected through early next week. High coverage of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected Sunday through Tuesday. A few strong storms will be possible each afternoon and evening through Tuesday. A weak cool front over Georgia will shift slowly southeast on Sunday and Monday. This will help strengthen southwest winds beginning Sunday morning, with Caution level wind speeds likely, and periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions, especially over northern waters through early Monday. Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds this weekend through Monday will likely yield a low to low-end moderate risk at area beaches. && .FIRE WEATHER... Main Highlights This Period: - Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms through Monday. - Locally heavy rainfall. - Gusty and erratic winds near convection. - Heat advisories likely needed Wednesday through Friday An active, wet pattern persists through the weekend as a nearly stationary frontal boundary lingers near southeast Georgia. Persistent southwesterly flow will drive numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms through Monday. Outside of storms, southwesterly winds of 10 to 15 mph (gusts 20 25 mph) are expected across northeast Florida. Fire weather operations should anticipate sudden, erratic wind shifts associated with thunderstorm outflows. Dispersion values will generally remain good due to increased transport winds, though cloud cover and precipitation will limit daytime mixing heights. Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected during the next several mornings. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible into the weekend with gusty winds up to 40-60 mph in thunderstorms. In addition, outflows from distant thunderstorms may also produce gusty and erratic winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 73 88 73 88 / 40 90 70 80 SSI 76 90 77 89 / 50 70 50 90 JAX 73 88 73 89 / 40 80 60 80 SGJ 74 88 74 89 / 30 70 30 60 GNV 72 85 72 87 / 60 80 70 80 OCF 73 86 73 88 / 50 80 50 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Monday evening for FLZ021-035-236-340-522. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ450-452-470-472. && $$ |
| #1274096 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:33 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 812 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated the Aviation section to reflect the 00z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) There is risk for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding across Southeast Georgia into the western South Carolina Lowcountry this afternoon and evening. A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible. - 2) Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will bring the potential for heavy rainfall, localized flooding, and/or gusty winds Sunday through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: There is risk for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding across Southeast Georgia into the western South Carolina Lowcountry this afternoon and evening. A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible. This afternoon, regional radar composite indicated a developing band of thunderstorms across southern GA, tracking northward. These storms will likely continue northward across the forecast area, partially supported by MLCAPE between 2500-3000 J/kg. Also, with the arrival of the thunderstorms, PW values will build to 2 to 2.2". These storms and associates cold pool may interact with the sea breeze to produce numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening hours. High resolution guidance indicates that multiple cell mergers or training storms may occur, especially in the vicinity of the cold pool and sea breeze. These processes could result in local areas of 2 to 4 inches of rain this afternoon and evening. The area of heaviest rainfall potential was highlighted well with the 12Z HREF, indicating a 50% of 3"/3hr along and west of I-95 across SE GA/SC. Thunderstorms should gradually dissipate during the mid to late afternoon. However, the approach of a longwave H5 trough may trigger additional showers and thunderstorms along the coast. KEY MESSAGE 2: Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will bring the potential for heavy rainfall, localized flooding, and/or gusty winds Sunday through early next week. Sunday: As the aforementioned system continues to trek eastwards, the region remain in the warm sector of the surface low pressure moving across the Ohio River Valley, with mid-level troughing expected to continue throughout the day. PWATs are expected to remain high between 2.2 - 2.4 inches (above the 90th percentile of climatology), and when combined with the warm air advection aloft and scattered shortwaves, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the day. CAPE profiles remain long and skinny through the day, which indicates potential for heavy rainfall. HREF has scattered 70% chances for an inch in 3 hours with very isolated 10% chances for 3 inches, while the REFS has lesser chances for an inch (40-50%) though still isolated 10% chances for 3 inches. As for the severe potential, with 1500-2000 J/kg of ML CAPE, highest in the late morning to mid afternoon hours, there remains potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. Given the potential for heavy downpours amidst a DCAPE environment of 500-1000 J/kg, strong wind gusts remain the primary risk. The risks for both heavy rainfall and severe potential are highest for our inland areas, lowest for areas along the coast. Monday: The aforementioned surface low pressure moves northeast into the Quebec province, with the trailing cold front extending down into Georgia and southern Alabama. Aloft, the trough turns into a closed upper level low, with scattered shortwaves continuing to overspread the region from south to north. PWATs decrease into the 2.0-2.2" range, and instability wanes to near 1000 J/kg, decreasing both the heavy rainfall and severe weather risks. However, given the expected preceding rainfall, the chances for locally heavy rainfall will persist especially for areas that saw recent heavy rains. Tuesday into the middle of the week: Previously, models brought the cold front through the region bringing an end to the wet conditions, though the latest 12Z guidance now has the front stalling off to our west as a surface high pressure builds and moves in from the Atlantic. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 00Z TAFs: Mostly VFR conditions will prevail this evening with mostly light rain falling mainly west of I-95. Rain across the area should diminish over the next hour or two with no impacts to area terminals expected. MVFR ceilings will likely move in after 06Z tonight with possibly some IFR ceilings south of the Georgia line impacting SAV around 09Z to 13z. Scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm will likely develop along the coastline resulting in possible reductions at CHS, JZI and SAV around 07Z to 12z. VFR conditions will return by 15Z to 18Z; however, increased coverage of thunderstorms will result in continued temporary reductions from 18z to 21z at all area terminals. Winds will remain out of the south-southwest around 10 knots throughout the daytime tomorrow. Extended Aviation Outlook: Periodic flight restrictions are expected in showers and thunderstorms through early next week. Locally heavy rainfall may produce brief IFR or lower visibility restrictions. && .MARINE... This afternoon: The National Weather Service Doppler Radar and satellite images indicated a boundary with isolated showers near the entrance of the Charleston Harbor. This line was associated with a observed waterspout on Folly Beach at 233 PM. This boundary should continue to drift north through 430 PM. The environment may support the formation of additional waterspouts along the boundary this afternoon. Tonight, the pattern will support southwest winds between 15 to 20 kts. Wave heights are forecast to build to 2 to 4 ft by late tonight. Sunday through Thursday: The pressure gradient will strengthen Sunday as broad low pressure develops inland with an approaching front and high pressure remaining in the Atlantic. Southwesterly winds will increase during the afternoon, with frequent gusts between 25 and 30 kt expected across the local waters. In addition, wave heights are forecast to increase to 4 to 7 feet Sunday evening. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the nearshore marine zones out to 20 nm and the outer Georgia waters from 20-60 nm, as well as the Charleston Harbor. Conditions should gradually improve Monday night, with benign wind and sea conditions expected for Tuesday through the rest of the period. Rip Currents: Gusty southwest winds combined with a 6 to 7 second swell and wave heights of 4-5 feet will support an elevated rip current risk on Sunday. A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents has been expanded to include the southeast Georgia beaches, remaining across the southeast South Carolina beaches. For Monday, Moderate Risk of Rip Currents continue for areas from coastal Colleton county down to the Altamaha River, with a High Risk of Rip Currents risk for the Charleston county coastline as strongest winds occur along the Charleston county coast. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: August 1: KCHS: 81/1999 KCXM: 86/1999 KSAV: 79/2020 August 2: KCHS: 79/2022 KCXM: 84/1999 KSAV: 80/1886 August 5: KCHS: 79/1980 KCXM: 82/1991 KSAV: 80/1883 August 6: KCHS: 79/1991 KCXM: 82/2006 KSAV: 80/1899 August 7: KCHS: 79/2007 KCXM: 83/2007 KSAV: 80/1879 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ340. Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ360-362. Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ364. Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to noon EDT Monday for AMZ384. && $$ |
| #1274095 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:33 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 822 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight risk for heavy rain and flooding across much of the Nature Coast through Sunday. Marginal risk for the remainder of West Central and Southwest Florida. - Flood Watch now in effect for Levy, Citrus, and Hernando counties through 8 PM Monday. - High risk of dangerous rip currents at area beaches through the weekend. - A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM on Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 818 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Unsettled weather conditions prevailed once again today across the Peninsula. This will continue on Sunday as onshore flow remains in place. Overnight/early morning showers and storms will be possible with on and off activity anticipated once again during the day. Pressure gradient will gradually increase through the day supporting breezy winds especially near the coast. Ample cloud coverage will keep temperatures from going over 90 degrees, so at least we get a break from the intense heat. A high risk for rip currents in local beaches remains during this time. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect from Sunday morning to the evening hours across northern waters. Mariners should exercise caution if navigating the central as well waters during this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 729 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Most of the convection has dissipated or is trending in that direction across TAF sites. Westerly flow will continue to bring potential for showers and storms again overnight and through the day on Sunday. Winds are forecast to increase by midday, especially for TPA and PIE. MVFR/IFR cigs and vis possible near thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 86 78 87 / 80 80 40 50 FMY 77 89 77 90 / 30 30 20 40 GIF 76 87 75 89 / 40 70 30 70 SRQ 77 88 77 89 / 60 70 40 50 BKV 73 86 73 88 / 80 80 40 50 SPG 79 86 79 87 / 80 80 50 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Flood Watch through Monday evening for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Levy. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
| #1274094 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:18 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 709 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 709 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - A few storms may produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground lightning tonight and into Sunday. - A High Risk of rip currents is expected through the weekend for all area beaches. - Moderate to strong winds over the marine area may create hazardous conditions for small craft through Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 709 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 The forecast remains on track as we still expect numerous showers and storms to develop around mid-evening across central Mississippi and move southeastward into our interior portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama by midnight. This convection will continue moving southeastward across the remainder of our forecast area overnight, eventually reaching along the coast after 4am. Gusty winds up to 45 mph could occur with the stronger storms that develop. /22 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A positively-tilted upper-level trough currently stretches from the Great Lakes region southwestward into the ArkLaTex. Over the next couple days, this trough will slowly push eastward with several embedded shortwaves rounding the base of this trough. At the surface, an associated cold front is located over northwestern Mississippi and will continue pushing southeastward throughout the day and into tonight. Moisture pooling out ahead of the front should allow for PWATs to increase to around 2.1-2.3 inches (generally around the 90th-95th percentile when comparing to climatology). This, along with forcing from the surface front and shortwave energy aloft, as well as strong daytime heating, should lead to the development of showers and storms along the front over portions of central MS and AL. As the front approaches and enters our northwestern counties this evening, the best forcing appears to pull away from the local area. This should lead to an overall weakening trend with storms as they enter our area. That being said, with plenty of instability in place, drier air aloft owing to DCAPEs above 1000 J/kg, along with shear values to around 25 knots, cannot rule out one or two multicellular clusters, capable of producing gusty to locally damaging winds over our northern counties this evening. The front will continue sagging to the southeast overnight tonight, setting up somewhere along the coast or just offshore by the early to mid-morning hours. Meanwhile, the next embedded shortwave is expected to pass across the area sometime around, or a little before sunrise, allowing for another round of showers and storms to redevelop. As stated before, moisture pooling will result in plenty of deep moisture to be in place along and ahead of the front, allowing for storms to be efficient rainfall- producers. And with flow moving parallel to the slow-moving front, storms may attempt to train and impact the same areas. The biggest question will be with regards to the location of the front, as this will ultimately determine where the highest coverage/heaviest rainfall will occur. Right now the latest 24hr LPMMs from the HREF suggest that localized QPF maximums of around 4-6 inches should remain just offshore. However, if the front is a bit slower and does not manage to make it offshore, I can not rule out these values being realized over portions of our coastal counties, potentially leading to a localized flash flood threat late tonight into Sunday morning. We will monitor this potential closely. The front should wash out by Sunday night/Monday and a drier airmass will begin filtering in after the passage of the upper trough axis. This will help to lower rain chances for the start of the week and possibly bring dew points into the 60s for a good portion of the area. If isolated to scattered showers and storms do manage to develop during the first half of the week, they will likely remain confined to the sea breeze boundary generally along and east of the I-65 corridor. Highs throughout the period will remain in the low to mid 90s, however, with the drier air filtering in, heat indices should remain below Heat Advisory criteria through much of the week. A High Risk of Rip Currents will be in place through Sunday night, lowering to a Moderate Risk for Monday. The rip current risk drops to a Low Risk for Tuesday and into midweek. /96 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 709 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Numerous showers and storms will develop around mid-evening and move into the interior portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama by midnight. This convection will move toward the southeast across the remainder of our area overnight into Sunday. These storms will bring local drops to flight categories with MVFR ceilings and brief periods of IFR visibility, with gusty winds up to 35 knots in the stronger storms. Added a PROB30 group for our TAF sites from 02/08z through 02/13z. Winds are expected to be generally westerly though this evening with a shift to northwesterly west of I-65 in the wake of the convection after midnight. Winds will remain gusty along the coast through the period. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Moderate to occasionally strong westerly to southwesterly flow is expected to develop tonight and linger through Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory is in place for Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound from 7PM tonight through 7AM Sunday, and from 7PM tonight through 4PM Sunday for our local Gulf waters. Winds gradually weaken Sunday night, with a light to moderate southwesterly flow becoming prevalent for the early to middle part of next week. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 91 71 92 / 50 40 20 10 Pensacola 79 89 73 91 / 60 80 40 10 Destin 80 87 75 89 / 60 90 50 10 Evergreen 73 91 71 91 / 40 40 20 20 Waynesboro 72 92 70 92 / 70 0 0 10 Camden 72 89 71 89 / 70 10 0 20 Crestview 75 89 73 91 / 60 70 40 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655-670- 675. && $$ |
| #1274093 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:06 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 757 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Introduced a slight chance of showers/t-storms this afternoon though most will stay dry. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly dry conditions through Sunday with the exception of an isolated shower or storm today. Unsettled weather arrives Sunday night. - Cold front brings showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain Monday. Street flooding is possible. A brief break on Tuesday before turning active and unsettled again Wednesday. - Still unsettled late in the week with periods of showers and storms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry conditions through Sunday with the exception of an isolated shower or storm today. Unsettled weather arrives Sunday night. Day Cloud Phase satellite imagery shows development of shallow cumulus this afternoon with a few isolated showers driven by the diurnal heating. Expect any showers to diminish around sunset. Quiet weather overnight with weak high pressure overhead. Moisture advects in within the southerly flow tonight similar to last night. Model soundings show a signal for moisture in the low levels under an inversion with the strongest signal for the south coast and Cape/Islands. This will increase the potential for stratus and perhaps some fog. HREF has shown potential for the stratus to push northward after midnight although there is lower confidence how far north it extends. Patch fog is also possible in the CT Valley overnight. Similar pattern for Sunday with the mid-level ridge and surface high offshore as a shortwave trough to the west of the region. Weak high pressure stays put over the area keeping conditions mainly dry. Can`t rule out an isolated shower or storm in the afternoon, mainly in western MA. High temperatures range in the low to mid 80s for most with southerly winds. Skies will be mainly cloudy. A low pressure system moves through the Ohio Valley as the mid-level trough pushes further east across western southern New England Sunday night. An accompanying LLJ pushes northward into the region. This will help advect in a plume of above normal moisture into the region ahead of the approaching trough. A mix of isentropic lift and jet dynamics will provide synoptic support for rain developing Sunday night. There is a signal for marginal instability which may support a few embedded moderate showers or brief downpours in localized areas with the higher risk for western MA/CT. The higher risk for the heavier rainfall will be Monday (see next key message). KEY MESSAGE 2...Cold front brings showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain Monday. Street flooding is possible. A brief break on Tuesday before turning active and unsettled again Wednesday. Still monitoring the potential for heavy rain into the early and possibly into the middle portion of next week. This rain and embedded thunderstorms looks to be forced by an injection of subtropical moisture on SWly low-level jet maxima of upwards of 45 kt Monday, ahead of an anomalously strong mid-level low stalling over the lower OH Valley Monday and remaining more-or-less in place into early next week. This strong meridional flow of air brings precipitable water values to 2-2.25", corresponding to anomalies which are 2 to 2.5 standard deviations above normal! A slow-moving south-to-north surface cold frontal boundary will interact with this subtropical moisture plume and favor rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Monday looks to be a washout with moderate (40-60%) model-ensemble probabilities of 24-hr rainfall totals at/over 1", with very low (<10%) chances of 24-hr rain totals at/over over 2". Will have to watch for possible street and poor drainage flooding in heavy downpours, as well as rises on rivers, creeks and streams as USGS streamflow data over the last 7 days (e.g. coming out of the very wet stretch we`ve had of late) show most rivers running above- to well-above normal. WPC`s excessive rainfall outlook shows as much as a Level 2 of 4 (Slight) Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Monday. While not a zero-risk, severe weather potential looks to be a more limited, secondary risk in the form of water-loaded downdrafts given the juiced airmass. It looks like on Tuesday that the northern end of the frontal boundary shifts the axis of highest PWAT values offshore, and allows for weak subsidence to return - put another way, it looks like Tuesday is a general minimum in rain chances, but it`s still unsettled as the mid-level low to our south could still allow for northward-moving showers and storms in the northern Mid-Atlantic to clip portions of western Southern New England. A better chance for another round of showers and storms mainly into western/central Southern New England returns by Wednesday. All told a pretty muggy and unsettled weather pattern with several opportunities for showers and storms. Temperatures should run above normal, especially with regard to the low temps in a humid, muggy airmass. KEY MESSAGE 3...Still unsettled late in the week with periods of showers and storms. The mid-level low over the Ohio Valley weakens and washes out into Thursday. Unfortunately an active northern stream portion of the jet continues, so it still ends up looking unsettled with showers/storms which are too difficult to provide more distinct periods when they become more likely. With stronger mid-level westerly flow associated with the stronger northern stream, there could be the potential for some storms to become strong but whether or not this comes to fruition remains to be seen. Temperatures continue to run above normal as we move into late week. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00z TAF Update: Tonight: Moderate confidence. VFR initially, however layer of MVFR-LIFR stratus has developed across most of the south coast and Cape Cod/ACK, and should continue to expand northward to at least BDL-ORH-PVD between 04-08z. Left TEMPO MVFR stratus at BOS, as it can be difficult for BOS to get sub-VFR on SW flow but latest guidance starting to hint at this more bullishly. SW winds 5-10 kt. Sunday: High confidence. Stratus dissipates for most by 14z to BKN/OVC VFR ceilings, though could linger into the aftn for Cape and Islands. SW/S winds around 10 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt. Sunday Night: Moderate confidence. Conditions deteriorate to MVFR/IFR ceilings. Possible SHRA western New England around/after 02z, but may take until 06z or later from ORH eastward. SW winds around 10 kt, with Possible LLWS after 06z Monday. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Outlook /Sunday through Thursday/... Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SHRA likely, slight chance TSRA, patchy BR. Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. SHRA, chance TSRA. Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Winds and seas below small craft advisory levels through Sunday. Winds and seas increase late Sunday night into early Monday morning across the southern and eastern waters. Seas 5-8 ft for the outer coastal waters, especially south. 5-7 ft seas stretch into portions of the inner souther waters. SW winds 15-20 kts with gusts around 30 kts. SCAs have been issued for the southern and eastern waters included the Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound starting early Monday morning. Elevated seas will keep SCAs around through Tuesday for the southern waters. Outlook /Sunday through Thursday/... Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms, patchy fog. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Rain showers likely, slight chance of thunderstorms. Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Rain showers likely, slight chance of thunderstorms. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ232>234. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ235-237-254. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ255-256. && $$ |
| #1274091 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:06 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 758 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Forecast grids have been updated mainly for PoPs/Wx for the next 4-6 hours for current observations and radar trends with inland activity expected to decrease, and coastal showers expected to continue to periodically move onshore overnight. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Wet and unsettled pattern Sunday through at least mid week. - 2) Strong southerly winds and hazardous marine conditions expected to develop Sunday into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Wet and unsettled pattern Sunday through at least mid week. Latest surface analysis shows an old frontal boundary that snakes through middle TN to metro Atlanta to the southern portions of the CSRA to SC Lowcountry and offshore. Aloft, an upper low is spinning over Illinois and Indiana, while ridging holds on over the Atlantic. Increased gradient flow has been noted between these two upper level features, and the coastal Carolinas are in perfect position to soak up lower level moisture from the SE to SSE. In the 300-700 mb layer, deep SW flow is ushering even more rich moisture form the Gulf. Convection is already starting to stir up along the shortwaves in the SC Pee Dee region. Scattered showers and storms expected to continue this afternoon and evening, mostly in northeast SC. Tonight should have an overall lull in the activity, besides a few stray showers or storms trying to push into the Pee Dee region, or offshore storms attempting to scrape the coast. Moisture continues to load into the air Sunday, creating a tropical atmosphere without the tropical system. Precipitable water (PWAT) values jump up into the 2.00-2.25" range, which is right around 125-150% of normal for this time of year. The warm front will lift northward, aiding in the initial lift for showers and storms to the area. Showers and storms are expected to become more widespread along the coast at first, translating to the inland areas by later Sunday afternoon. Forecast guidance shows that the upper low doesn`t appear quite as stagnant as it did 24 hours ago. Even so, the trough axis will amplify and dig as far south as the Gulf coast. This enhances the ribbon of moisture transport across the eastern Carolinas, allowing for healthy doses of rain to continue through at least Tuesday. The trough appears to loosen up a bit by Wednesday, although guidance is shaky on the details. Periods of rain could easily go into Wednesday if the moisture regime is maintained. The system appears to favor coastal areas with the most rainfall amounts, potentially 1-2 inches. Inland areas look more like 0.50-0.75". Locally higher amounts are possible everywhere. Training in storms may create isolated flooding in some spots. Widespread dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 70s will promote healthy buoyancy, leading to moderate instability each day. Isolated severe weather possible each day, particularly damaging winds. KEY MESSAGE 2...Strong southerly winds and hazardous marine conditions expected to develop Sunday into Monday. Small Craft Advisory in effect. See the Marine section below for more details. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... There are two causal factors for potential IFR/MVFR conditions over the coming 24 hours: - Convection: Scattered showers developing across the nearshore ocean will move generally N to NW overnight. There is a low potential for MVFR ceilings at KMYR and KCRE overnight, and a moderate potential for impacts at KILM. Warming temperatures on Sunday will likely reignite convection with moderate to high potential for impacts at all local airports. - Late night/early morning low stratus: With weakening winds inland and a very humid airmass in place, models agree with our suspicions that KFLO and KLBT have a moderate to high potential for MVFR/IFR ceilings developing before sunrise. Cloud ceilings may only slowly rise through the morning hours. Extended Forecast...A slow moving upper trough settling over the region, combined with an anomalously moist airmass, will support periods of showers and storms from Sunday night through Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday. Periodic MVFR/IFR restrictions will be possible in heavier showers and thunderstorms. The moist low-level airmass will also support a greater potential for morning low stratus each day. && .MARINE... Through Thursday...Moderate breeze out of the SE veer to the S tonight, as a warm front lifts back to the coast. Seas start to increase modestly at first, going from 2-3 ft to 3-5 ft. Winds increase considerably on Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens and the front lifts inland, resulting in a fresh to strong breeze out of the SW to SSW. Small Craft Advisory goes into effect at noon EDT Sunday for the coastal waters from Surf City, NC to South Santee River, SC out 20 nm, expiring at 8 PM EDT Monday. In response to these gradient winds, seas rapidly increase to 4-7 ft out 20 nm, up to 7-8 out 60 nm, before improving gradually towards 3-4 ft Monday night and Tuesday. Winds back slightly to the S Tuesday, improving to a moderate breeze, and then towards a gentle breeze by Thursday. Seas continue to improve to 2-3 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1274090 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:06 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 758 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight risk for heavy rain and flooding across much of the Nature Coast through Sunday. Marginal risk for the remainder of West Central and Southwest Florida. - Flood Watch now in effect for Levy, Citrus, and Hernando counties through 8 PM Monday. - High risk of dangerous rip currents at area beaches through the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 729 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Unsettled weather conditions prevailed once again today across the Peninsula. This will continue on Sunday as onshore flow remains in place. Overnight/early morning showers and storms will be possible with on and off activity anticipated once again during the day. Pressure gradient will gradually increase through the day supporting breezy winds especially near the coast. Ample cloud coverage will keep temperatures from going over 90 degrees, so at least we get a break from the intense heat. A high risk for rip currents in local beaches remains during this time. No changes were made to the forecast as it remains on track. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 729 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Most of the convection has dissipated or is trending in that direction across TAF sites. Westerly flow will continue to bring potential for showers and storms again overnight and through the day on Sunday. Winds are forecast to increase by midday, especially for TPA and PIE. MVFR/IFR cigs and vis possible near thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 86 78 87 / 80 80 40 50 FMY 77 89 77 90 / 30 30 20 40 GIF 76 87 75 89 / 40 70 30 70 SRQ 77 88 77 89 / 60 70 40 50 BKV 73 86 73 88 / 80 80 40 50 SPG 79 86 79 87 / 80 80 50 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Flood Watch through Monday evening for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Levy. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1274086 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:45 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 739 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A typical summertime pattern prevails Sunday through the middle of next week, with near average temperatures, increasingly humid conditions, and daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 PM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...A typical summertime pattern prevails Sunday through the middle of next week, with near average temperatures, increasingly humid conditions, and daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. GOES water vapor channels depict a slow moving upper low over the mid-Mississippi Valley with moist southerly flow ahead of the upper low over the Mid-Atlantic. Surface high pressure is now centered well offshore of the Southeast coast. There is a lee-side trough over the Piedmont and low-level SSE flow has allowed moisture to pool along that boundary. Given this, some isolated showers/tstms have developed in an environment featuring SBCAPE ~1500 J/kg and low- level lapse rates of 7.0-7.5 C/km. Mid-level lapse rates are rather poor, so these showers/tstms are not particularly tall. Temperatures are in the mid/upper 80s, and slightly more humid than the past few days with dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Warm and more humid tonight with low temperatures of 70-75F. Mainly dry, with a slight chc of showers over the Piedmont and coastal SE VA/NE NC toward morning. The pattern becomes more unsettled by Sunday, and this will continue into early next week as the slow moving upper-level trough approaches from the west. At the same time, a weak cold front approaches from the north, but will remain north of the local area through Monday (and likely wash out by Tuesday). With the approaching trough and Bermuda high pressure well offshore, deep- layered S to SW flow will prevail. This will allow rich Gulf moisture to overspread the area on Sunday and remain over us early next week. PWs surge to 2.2-2.4" by later Sunday/Sunday night. Scattered to potentially numerous showers/tstms are expected Sunday. The highest precip chances will initially be across south-central VA during the afternoon (as the deep moisture arrives here first). Showers and tstms should gradually spread NE through the evening (though it may very well remain dry near the immediate coast and on the Eastern Shore). Showers/tstms are likely across the entire area on Monday as a lead shortwave potentially tracks over the area. Monday appears to be the day with the highest convective coverage during the period. The trough dampens a bit from Tuesday/Wednesday, but scattered showers and tstms are still expected during the aftn/evening on both days as weak SW flow aloft continues and deep moisture remains nearby. Given the environment, and relatively weak unidirectional flow aloft and tall/skinny CAPE, there will be a threat of localized flash flooding each day, but the severe threat should remain relatively low with these tstms. Days 2-4 (Sunday through Tuesday) are in a `Marginal` ERO as the overall flash flood risk is more isolated given a lack of a larger scale focusing mechanism, as the aforementioned front remains north of the local area. High temperatures dip down slightly below average during the early week period thanks to the cloud cover and multiple rounds of showers/tstms. Though not quite as unsettled as the first half of the week, the latter half of the week will see isolated to scattered afternoon showers and tstms. With the decreased convective coverage forecast, temperatures will return to near to slightly above normal with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 740 PM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions prevail for the majority of the 00z/02 TAF period. Overnight, winds remain out of the S around 5-10 kt, becoming more SSW 8-12 kt with some gusts to 20 kt Sunday. There is a slight chance of showers along the coast before sunrise. Patchy MVFR CIGs are possible Sunday morning at RIC from 11-14z, with IFR CIGs further to the W. Additionally, SBY could see MVFR CIGs, during this timeframe, but confidence is lower. Otherwise, showers/tstms are likely Sunday afternoon across most of the area, which will have the potential to produce brief IFR VSBY in heavy rain. Outlook: Shower/tstm chances continue Sunday night and Monday as a slow moving upper trough approaches the area, and linger into Tuesday through Thursday. Periodic sub-VFR conditions are possible during this time, mainly from early morning stratus, and brief vsby restrictions in heavy rain. && .MARINE... As of 140 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay from this afternoon into the early overnight hours. - Another period of SCA conditions is likely Sunday afternoon into Monday ahead of a weakening cold front. High pressure is now offshore as of this afternoon. Meanwhile, a sfc low has become nearly vertically stacked with the upper low over the lower midwest. Latest obs show southerly winds around 10kt with gusts to 15kt. Seas are around 2ft and waves in the bay/rivers are around 1ft. The stacked low will slowly move east over the next couple of days. Guidance suggests that the gradient between this low and high pressure offshore will tighten sufficiently to result in 15-20 kt SE winds over the Ches Bay later this afternoon through the evening hours. SCAs are in effect for the bay from 4pm to 1am to cover this. Winds in the tidal rivers, Currituck Sound, and offshore zones are expected to stay below SCA thresholds. Winds are expected to relax back into the 10-15 kt range after midnight. Waves and seas briefly build to 2-3 ft during the enhanced SE flow tonight. The surface low and its associated cold front will translate slowly eastward on Sunday, allowing the pressure gradient to steepen again. Additional SCA headlines are likely Sunday night into Monday for the majority of the local waters. Given a longer duration SW flow event, seas will have more time to build into the 3-6 ft range (0-20nm range, highest N). Farther offshore, seas increase to 5-7 ft for a period late Sunday into Monday. The front is forecast to wash out over inland areas late Monday into Tuesday. Afternoon and evening shower and storm chances return Sunday and linger well into next week with locally higher winds/waves/seas likely to accompany the stronger convection. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634. && $$ |
| #1274085 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:45 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 644 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 634 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Heat index values of 105-109 are expected, isolated locations 110- 113. WBGT will be high to extreme across South Texas. - Elevated fire weather conditions expected through early next week over the western Brush country. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms expected on Sunday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 104 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 High pressure will continue to be in control of our weather over the next week. As mentioned previously, the eastern flank of the ridge will weaken due to a strengthening trough, which will increase moisture into the area. PWATs are anticipated to reach 2" as moisture pools ahead of a weak surface reflection of this trough. As this moves south, a low (15-25%) chance of showers and thunderstorms will develop Sunday before drier air moves, effectively ending our rain chances for the upcoming work week. Temperatures will remain hot through the upcoming week. Heat index values will range from 105-109, with isolated locations reaching 110- 113. While this already sounds miserable for anyone outside, a better indicator of heat-related impacts is the WetBulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), which takes the sun angle, latitude, temperature, sky cover, wind, and moisture into account. For this weekend through the upcoming week, WGBT is generally extreme, though a few locations will "only" be high. This means for every hour you spend outside, you should take a 20 minute break. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, although there is a medium chance (around 40%) of MVFR cigs/visibility at KALI/KCRP Sunday morning. There will also be isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms during the day on Sunday, so some mention of TSRA may be needed in future TAF issuances if probs increase. Winds will trend light and variable overnight and likely remain light and variable through much of the day on Sunday, outside of any potential thunderstorm outflows. && .MARINE... Issued at 104 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A gentle to moderate onshore (largely S-SE) flow can be expected through the forecast period, with occasional fresh winds during the overnight and morning hours. Seas will generally range from 2-4 feet through the forecast period. The only appreciable rain chances in the period will be on Sunday and even then chances will only be around 20%. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 79 96 78 97 / 0 10 0 0 Victoria 78 98 75 100 / 10 10 0 0 Laredo 80 103 79 106 / 0 20 10 0 Alice 77 100 76 102 / 0 20 0 0 Rockport 80 93 80 92 / 10 20 0 0 Cotulla 81 103 78 106 / 10 20 0 0 Kingsville 77 98 76 100 / 0 20 0 0 Navy Corpus 81 91 81 90 / 0 10 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ234-241>247- 342>344-346-347. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274084 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:30 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 620 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory in effect for our southern counties (including the City of Houston) through early this evening. - Frontal boundary may bring isolated showers/storms this afternoon and evening. - While a drop in humidity is expected on Sunday, hot conditions are expected with highs in the upper 90s to near 100. Even hotter on Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A weak cool front is at our doorstep early this afternoon. Latest radar and sfc obs place the boundary extending between Waco and College Stn areas as of early this afternoon. A few showers and perhaps some lightning strikes can be expected through the afternoon and evening hours as the front slowly sags southward into the region. This is a very weak and very slow-moving boundary overall. Current forecast suggests it will slowly move over the Houston metro area overnight before settling along the coast by early Sunday morning, where it will likely meander or even wash out over the coastal waters during the day. The primary impact from this FROPA will be a temporary drop in humidity as drier air filters in from the north. Inland sfc dewpoints are forecast to drop into the low 60s to low 70s throughout the day on Sunday. Consequently, expect a dry heat across most inland locations with high temps climbing into the upper 90s to near 100F. A bit of a different story is expected along the coast, however. Dewpoint values there will remain in the mid to upper 70s, keeping conditions more humid with peak heat indices reaching up to 107F. Given the close proximity of the boundary near the coast on Sunday combined with daytime heating, have maintained low-end PoPs for our southwestern counties and coastal zones through the afternoon. Upper lvl ridging builds back into the region by Monday, setting up a return to southerly flow at the surface. In other words, hot and humid conditions return with Monday`s highs in the upper 90s to near 102F. Beyond Tuesday, the weather pattern settles into a more typical, near-seasonal summertime regime. Expect diurnally-driven, isolated showers and storms primarily driven by the daily seabreeze, mainly in the each afternoons after Thursday. JM && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 602 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A slowing moving "cold" front continues to push into SE TX this evening and overnight. Any remaining showers ahead of the front are expected to dissipate in the next couple of hours. In general, winds veer from WSW to N as the front pushes through. A light and VRB wind group is included at most TAF sites to account for the wind shift associated with the front. At KGLS, elevated and gusty winds continue through the evening and overnight. Across all sites, a drier air mass arrives in wake of the front, making CIGs and VIS a minimal concern. Looking ahead to tomorrow afternoon, there is a low chance for pop-up showers and thunderstorms primarily along the coast due to daytime heating and positioning of the weak frontal boundary; however, confidence is low. MLG && .MARINE... Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 South to southwest winds will gradually strengthen this afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cool front. Building seas are also anticipated, mostly remaining up to 5 ft, occasionally higher offshore. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for Galveston Bay and nearshore waters from High Island to Freeport through early Sunday. The FROPA is expected to reach the bays and coastal waters late tonight into Sunday morning. While a brief wind shift to the north-northwest will be possible over the bays and nearshore, the boundary will meander near the coast through the day; therefore, onshore winds will mainly prevail. A few showers and storms will be possible this evening and then again Sunday afternoon, depending on the final position of the FROPA. Beyond Sunday, dry and hot weather is expected with light to occasionally moderate south to southeast winds and seas around 2 to 3ft, occasionally up to 4 ft next weekend. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 74 98 74 100 / 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 78 99 77 101 / 10 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 81 93 82 94 / 20 20 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ200-213-214-226- 227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ335-355. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Sunday morning for GMZ375. && $$ |
| #1274083 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:27 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 725 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 722 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - A Flood Watch is in effect for the eastern Florida Panhandle and Florida Big Bend through Monday afternoon. An additional 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected in the watch area with localized additional totals of 5 to 8 inches possible. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Monday) Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Widespread light to moderate rain with embedded heavier thunderstorms continues this afternoon across much of the area. Some of this has caused localized flooding so far today with isolated totals of 3 to 6 inches. More scattered storms are developing north of this activity, and given the tropical atmosphere in place with PWATs of 2.2-2.5 inches, the locally heavy rain threat continues. Additionally, we`ll have to wait to see if a westward moving outflow boundary interact with the more unstable air to the wet. This could cause scattered storms to redevelop late this afternoon to our west that could move back to the east into this evening. If it does, it should fade after sunset given the loss of daytime instability and a more worked over environment the farther east one goes. Overnight, we`ll have a bit of a lull until late night when another round of showers and storms will develop as the shortwave moves closer. It`ll be rather similar to this morning with showers and storms moving off the Gulf with some heavy rain embedded, pushing inland through the day. Thus, the risk of flash flooding will continue through Sunday, especially in the eastern Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Given that some areas received heavy rain today, more of the area may be more susceptible to flooding on Sunday. We`ll repeat the pattern going into Sunday night and Monday, though everything begins to move farther to the east and our forcing begins to weaken somewhat. So the threat of flash flooding may begin to decrease then from a rain-rate perspective, but we could be quite saturated by that point in the eastern Big Bend. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A little of bit of lingering influence will remain from this weekend`s system on Tuesday, but we should be returning to a normal summertime pattern by mid to late week. Our temperatures will also return back to summertime averages in the low to mid 90s and heat index values of 100-105. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 722 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Lingering showers from today`s convection should continue to dissipate over the next few hours. A lull is expected for the rest of the evening and early overnight before another round of showers and storms gets underway likely before sunrise and pushes eastward through the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are expected over the next few days, mainly during the overnight and morning hours. Some gusty winds, waterspouts, and heavy rain are possible. Southwest winds will increase tonight to advisory level over the open waters west of Apalachicola before subsiding Sunday night. Borderline cautionary conditions are possible in St. Andrews Bay and Apalachee Bay during that same time period. Winds become light to gentle early next week out of the southwest, then become more east to southeast late in the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Widespread wetting rains this weekend will keep fire weather concerns at a minimum. Transport winds will remain out of the west to southwest around 10-20 mph through this weekend, then lessening to 5-10 mph by Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Locally heavy rain has fallen today with some spots in the Florida Panhandle, Florida Big Bend, and southern Georgia receiving 3-6 inches of rain. This has primed the ground for additional heavy rainfall to come in the next 2 days. Models continue to show that the heaviest rain will mostly be confined to the Florida counties with potentially the greatest risk of flash flooding in the eastern Big Bend. Given this, the Flood Watch has been expanded northward to include Calhoun County FL to Madison County. Most likely additional rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches is expected in the watch area, but localized additional totals of 5-8 inches are possible. Across the rest of the area, the flood threat is more localized, but still a few place could see several inches of rain in a short period of time under a slow moving storm or two. We continue to watch the rivers in the coastal Big Bend for the potential of rises. This includes rivers such as the Sopchoppy, St. Marks, Econfina, Fenholloway, and Steinhatchee. However, most of our larger river systems should remain below flood stage. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 74 85 73 88 / 40 90 80 80 Panama City 78 86 76 89 / 60 100 80 30 Dothan 74 88 72 90 / 50 90 50 40 Albany 73 87 72 89 / 30 90 50 60 Valdosta 73 85 72 89 / 30 80 80 90 Cross City 73 84 73 87 / 80 80 80 90 Apalachicola 78 84 77 86 / 50 90 80 80 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for FLZ012>019-027>029-034- 112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426. High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for FLZ112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1274082 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:27 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 724 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 301 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Additional rounds of showers and storms are forecast through the weekend and into early next week. Storms may form earlier in the day than usual. Frequent lightning and gusty winds to 40-50 mph will be the primary hazards. - A Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall leading to flooding continues across all of East Central Florida through Monday. A few spots may see rainfall amounts over 3", leading to flooding. - High pressure expands over Florida early next week. However, continued high moisture and sea breeze interactions should keep storm chances elevated, especially over the interior and Lake Okeechobee region. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Currently...Scattered to numerous showers and storms once again got going on the earlier side, and the many have already pushed south of the Orlando Metro and offshore Volusia coast, transiting the southern counties and approaching the coast from the Cape south. Between the early start and subsequent higher cloud cover, daytime heating hasn`t been able to provide much instability and most convection has been rather mushy so far. A few gusts 25-35 mph have been observed, as have pockets of 2" rainfall. Rest of Today-Tonight...A low pressure system moving towards the Ohio Valley will deepen as a sharp trough cuts down south over the Eastern US. While the low will finally lift the stalled front to our north away, moisture will begin surging across Florida in the wake of this system. In the few places that aren`t clouded over, GOES imagery shows PWATs from 1.9-2.2" (75th to 95th climatological percentiles), backed by this morning`s soundings. Values could push as high as 2.4" (near to exceeding climatological max), leading to a favorable environment for heavy rainfall leading to minor flooding, and the Weather Prediction Center has again outlined all of East Central Florida in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. While most locations will see rainfall amounts 0.5" or less, a few spots will get up to 2" , and one or two spots could see amounts over 3". The greatest potential for these higher amounts will be along the coast from the Cape south as activity collides with the sea breeze, which has barely managed to develop before being overrun. The highly saturated atmosphere isn`t generally conducive to downdrafts, but water loading could produce gusty winds to around 45 mph. Frequent lightning will also accompany the strongest storms. Forecast calls for high temperatures in the L90s, but those temperatures may be in the rear view mirror for places that already got heavy rainfall, if reached at all. Sunday-Monday...The mid-upper level trough continues digging south over the Eastern US towards the Gulf and Florida Sunday, then the mid-level low becomes cut-off over the Tennessee Valley. The associated surface low elongates and weakens in response, but will help pull anomalously high moisture over the Florida peninsula in southwesterly flow between the low and high pressure east of Bermuda. Rain chances remain well above normal, especially on Sunday which is shaping up to be pretty dreary, with multiple rounds of scattered to numerous showers and storms possible (chances up to 60-80%) and overcast skies. Highest chances will continue to be in the afternoons and evenings as the sea breezes attempt to form and daytime heating provides what little destabilization it can, but bands of vorticity transiting the base of the trough aloft could support showers and storms in the overnights and mornings (chances 30% or less). More locations could see rainfall amounts up to 2" Sunday with the high coverage and repeated rounds, then more limited potential Monday as rain chances back off a bit. The Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall will continue for all of East Central Florida through Monday. Temperatures are forecast to be near to slightly below normal (if you can believe that) in the U80s-L90s thanks to the rain and cloud cover. Peak afternoon heat indices even dip into the 90s across most of the area Sunday, then up to the L-M100s Monday. Tuesday-Friday...Return to more typical mid-Summer conditions. The cut-off mid-level low lingers over the Appalachians before getting swept up by a broad trough swinging across Canada and the northern US mid-week, returning more seasonal broad ridging overhead. At the surface, the ridge axis of the Atlantic high lifts back towards Florida and eventually north of the area, shifting winds southerly Tuesday into Wednesday, then onshore again late in the week. The plume of anomalously high moisture is expected to linger across Florida through mid-week, before more easterly flow ushers it westward towards the Gulf, but will continue to see near to above normal moisture advected across the peninsula in the onshore flow. Rain chances remain above normal for most of the area, generally 40-70% each afternoon-evening, with the highest chances shifting towards the interior as the east coast sea breeze is able to push farther inland each day. Can`t rule out some minor flooding concerns, but the threat looks to be closer to that typically from our afternoon thunderstorms. While technically warmer conditions are forecast as rain chances decrease some, temperatures will be very near normal with afternoon highs mostly in the U80s-L90s, pushing towards the M90s inland in some spots. Peak heat indices generally 101-105, but a few locations could perk towards 107. HeatRisk impacts Minor to Moderate. && .MARINE... Issued at 301 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Today-Wednesday...While winds and seas are generally favorable for boating, scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms will continue to impact the local Atlantic waters through at least mid-week, and some higher winds are possible offshore Sunday into Monday. The Atlantic high remains shunted south and offshore by a pair of low pressure systems, one over the eastern US (the stronger of the two) and another ejecting into the Canadian Maritimes. Southwesterly to south flow will continue across the area between these features into Monday, then become southerly and eventually onshore into mid-week as the low over the eastern US weakens and departs, allowing the Atlantic high to build back to Florida, with the ridge axis eventually settling north of the area. The sea breeze circulation will attempt to shift winds more southeasterly from the afternoon into the early overnight, until the onshore winds become established, then shifting winds ERLY. Speeds generally 5-15 kts, but will occasionally push over 15 kts at times. Small craft may need to exercise caution for winds 15-20 kts offshore north of the Cape Sunday into Monday. Seas 1-2 feet this afternoon build a bit to 1-3 ft tonight through the rest of the period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 720 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ISOLD-WDLY SCT convection the rest of the evening possible, though should be on a diminishing trend. Will handle with "Vicinity" & "TEMPO" wording as necessary. Gusty winds still possible in some activity. Will monitor for convection north/west of I-4 late tonight into early Sun morning. For Sun, rinse/repeat once again with early initiation and high coverage of showers and storms. SSW/SW surface winds 6-12 kts on Sun. Storm steering (out of SW or W) will continue to take SCT-NMRS storms toward the coast and offshore. Should the ECSB develop at all on Sun (S. Brevard/Treasure Coast) it will remain pinned at/near the coast. Strongest pulse storms on Sun could be across KVRB, KFPR, and KSUA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 87 74 90 / 30 60 20 60 MCO 75 88 75 90 / 20 60 20 60 MLB 75 88 75 89 / 30 60 20 60 VRB 74 89 75 90 / 30 60 20 60 LEE 75 86 75 89 / 40 60 30 60 SFB 76 88 75 90 / 30 60 20 60 ORL 76 88 75 90 / 30 60 20 60 FPR 74 89 74 90 / 30 60 20 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1274081 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:00 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 650 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 645 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Lingering showers and storms taper off tonight with dry and calm conditions returning into tomorrow morning. - High rainfall rates will be possible with any lingering storms, creating the potential for localized flooding across the east coast metro areas. && .UPDATE... Issued at 344 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Prior forecast remains compliant and properly up-to-date with current observations. SSE winds continue to push inland across the east coast as we are seeing showers and thunderstorms begin to develop in response. Activity should continue to become more scattered in nature as the rest of the afternoon progresses, directly affecting our east coast terminals. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A rather deep mid level trough/closed low complex over the Midwest will slowly dig towards the Deep South as today progresses. The mid level low will slowly try to open up heading into Sunday as it slowly pushes southeastward, however, deep troughing will still extend into the Southeast and into the northern Gulf during this time frame. As the main trough axis will remain off to the north of the region, a weak vort max will slowly pass through the Florida Panhandle today before moving across the rest of Northern Florida tonight into Sunday. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary will remain stalled out well off to the north over the Southeast today and this front will eventually wash out heading into tonight. Another frontal boundary will slowly push through the Southeast and towards the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday. South Florida will remain well to the south of the boundary, and therefore, synoptic surface winds will generally remain south to southwesterly both today and Sunday. While a pocket of drier air in the lower to mid levels of the atmospheric column, (between 850 and 550mb), will try to hold on through most of today, the latest forecast model soundings show that this layer will give way to deeper moisture advection especially heading into this afternoon through Sunday. With increasing moisture combined with south to southwesterly wind flow, the east coast sea breeze will remain pinned over the metro areas this afternoon and then again on Sunday. With a rather light steering flow in place, showers and thunderstorms will be relatively slow moving. This, combined with the abundance of moisture pushing into the region will result in the potential for localized flooding especially over the east coast metro areas for both this afternoon and Sunday afternoon as well. Some of the thunderstorm activity will have the potential to become strong and contain gusty winds each afternoon especially over the Lake Region and portions of the east coast metro areas where instability will be maximized during peak diurnal heating. Heat will be a concern throughout the weekend as high temperatures rise into the lower to mid 90s across a good portion of South Florida. Peak heat index values will generally range between 105 and 110 across most of the region this afternoon and then once again on Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 The beginning of the week will feature the rather deep mid level trough still remaining over the Southeast as well as the northern Gulf on Monday. However, the latest global and ensemble guidance suite does show mid level ridging in the western Atlantic trying to push back over the region starting later on Monday and then even more so heading into Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, what is left of the second frontal boundary stalled out over Northern Florida as well as the Northern Gulf on Monday will gradually wash out heading into Tuesday. The western periphery of surface high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will then gradually shift back over the Florida Peninsula for Tuesday and Wednesday. This will create a wind shift allowing for winds to become south southeasterly as Monday progresses, and then slowly becoming easterly moving towards the middle of the week. With the influx of moisture continuing especially through monday, combined with the light south to southwest steering flow in place, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop as the sea breezes push inland. The east coast sea breeze will still remain relatively pinned for one more day on Monday, allowing for the highest chances of convection to remain over the interior as well as the east coast metro areas. With PWAT values generally looking to remain at 2.0 inches or higher during this time frame, heavy downpours and slow moving thunderstorms could continue the potential for localized flooding on Monday. While Tuesday and Wednesday will feature additional shower and thunderstorm development, the highest chances will shift and remain over the interior and southwest Florida each afternoon and evening during this time frame. High temperatures each day through the middle of the week will continue to rise into the lower 90s across most of South Florida. Peak heat index values will still create a heat concern during this time frame as they will range between 105 and 110 each afternoon. Easterly winds remain firmly in place heading into the second half of the week, however, uncertainty rises in the forecast during this time frame as some of the global and ensemble guidance is hinting at the potential for another weak TUTT to make a close pass near the region. This could increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame and it will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. With easterly wind flow remaining in place, the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame will continue to be focused over the interior as well as Southwest Florida. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 VFR prevails overnight with light winds returning. Scattered SHRA begins to develop late tonight around 07-08Z and will eventually increase into scattered TS between 14-16Z. Periods of MVFR/IFR CIGs/VIS will be possible across the east coast terminals tomorrow from late morning through early evening. Winds will be generally SE around 10 kts with KAPF shifting to the SW for the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A gentle to moderate south to southwesterly wind flow will continue across most of the local waters through the weekend. These winds will gradually shift and become more southeasterly as the early portion of next week progresses. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the weekend and into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 91 80 91 / 20 50 20 80 West Kendall 77 91 76 91 / 20 50 20 80 Opa-Locka 79 92 79 91 / 20 60 20 80 Homestead 79 91 79 91 / 20 60 20 70 Fort Lauderdale 79 90 80 90 / 30 60 20 80 N Ft Lauderdale 80 90 80 90 / 30 60 30 80 Pembroke Pines 80 91 80 91 / 20 60 20 80 West Palm Beach 77 91 77 91 / 40 70 40 80 Boca Raton 78 90 79 90 / 40 60 40 80 Naples 79 91 78 91 / 20 30 20 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274079 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 432 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Introduced a slight chance of showers/t-storms this afternoon though most will stay dry. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly dry conditions through Sunday with the exception of an isolated shower or storm today. Unsettled weather arrives Sunday night. - Cold front brings showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain Monday. Street flooding is possible. A brief break on Tuesday before turning active and unsettled again Wednesday. - Still unsettled late in the week with periods of showers and storms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry conditions through Sunday with the exception of an isolated shower or storm today. Unsettled weather arrives Sunday night. Day Cloud Phase satellite imagery shows development of shallow cumulus this afternoon with a few isolated showers driven by the diurnal heating. Expect any showers to diminish around sunset. Quiet weather overnight with weak high pressure overhead. Moisture advects in within the southerly flow tonight similar to last night. Model soundings show a signal for moisture in the low levels under an inversion with the strongest signal for the south coast and Cape/Islands. This will increase the potential for stratus and perhaps some fog. HREF has shown potential for the stratus to push northward after midnight although there is lower confidence how far north it extends. Patch fog is also possible in the CT Valley overnight. Similar pattern for Sunday with the mid-level ridge and surface high offshore as a shortwave trough to the west of the region. Weak high pressure stays put over the area keeping conditions mainly dry. Can`t rule out an isolated shower or storm in the afternoon, mainly in western MA. High temperatures range in the low to mid 80s for most with southerly winds. Skies will be mainly cloudy. A low pressure system moves through the Ohio Valley as the mid-level trough pushes further east across western southern New England Sunday night. An accompanying LLJ pushes northward into the region. This will help advect in a plume of above normal moisture into the region ahead of the approaching trough. A mix of isentropic lift and jet dynamics will provide synoptic support for rain developing Sunday night. There is a signal for marginal instability which may support a few embedded moderate showers or brief downpours in localized areas with the higher risk for western MA/CT. The higher risk for the heavier rainfall will be Monday (see next key message). KEY MESSAGE 2...Cold front brings showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain Monday. Street flooding is possible. A brief break on Tuesday before turning active and unsettled again Wednesday. Still monitoring the potential for heavy rain into the early and possibly into the middle portion of next week. This rain and embedded thunderstorms looks to be forced by an injection of subtropical moisture on SWly low-level jet maxima of upwards of 45 kt Monday, ahead of an anomalously strong mid-level low stalling over the lower OH Valley Monday and remaining more-or-less in place into early next week. This strong meridional flow of air brings precipitable water values to 2-2.25", corresponding to anomalies which are 2 to 2.5 standard deviations above normal! A slow-moving south-to-north surface cold frontal boundary will interact with this subtropical moisture plume and favor rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Monday looks to be a washout with moderate (40-60%) model-ensemble probabilities of 24-hr rainfall totals at/over 1", with very low (<10%) chances of 24-hr rain totals at/over over 2". Will have to watch for possible street and poor drainage flooding in heavy downpours, as well as rises on rivers, creeks and streams as USGS streamflow data over the last 7 days (e.g. coming out of the very wet stretch we`ve had of late) show most rivers running above- to well-above normal. WPC`s excessive rainfall outlook shows as much as a Level 2 of 4 (Slight) Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Monday. While not a zero-risk, severe weather potential looks to be a more limited, secondary risk in the form of water-loaded downdrafts given the juiced airmass. It looks like on Tuesday that the northern end of the frontal boundary shifts the axis of highest PWAT values offshore, and allows for weak subsidence to return - put another way, it looks like Tuesday is a general minimum in rain chances, but it`s still unsettled as the mid-level low to our south could still allow for northward-moving showers and storms in the northern Mid-Atlantic to clip portions of western Southern New England. A better chance for another round of showers and storms mainly into western/central Southern New England returns by Wednesday. All told a pretty muggy and unsettled weather pattern with several opportunities for showers and storms. Temperatures should run above normal, especially with regard to the low temps in a humid, muggy airmass. KEY MESSAGE 3...Still unsettled late in the week with periods of showers and storms. The mid-level low over the Ohio Valley weakens and washes out into Thursday. Unfortunately an active northern stream portion of the jet continues, so it still ends up looking unsettled with showers/storms which are too difficult to provide more distinct periods when they become more likely. With stronger mid-level westerly flow associated with the stronger northern stream, there could be the potential for some storms to become strong but whether or not this comes to fruition remains to be seen. Temperatures continue to run above normal as we move into late week. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18Z TAF Update: This Afternoon: High confidence. VFR. SW winds around 5-10 kt and sea breeze around 10 kts at BOS. Low chance for an isolated shower or weak storm through 00Z. Sea breeze kicks out of BOS 23-00Z returning to SSW flow. Tonight: Moderate confidence. VFR to start. Main challenge for tonight will be ceilings. There is potential for re-development of a stratus deck across the Cape/Islands potentially extending to the south coast closer to 03Z. This could bring a range of LIFR to IFR ceilings with FG possible for the Cape/Islands. There is considerable uncertainty in the northward extent of this stratus deck. There is a low end potential for this deck to extend northward close to BOS after 09Z. Low ceilings appear in TAFs with higher confidence for the stratus (Cape/Islands) while the other terminals have either FEW/SCT decks hinting at the lower cigs for now. Will have to re-assess for the 00Z TAF. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Sea breeze this afternoon around 10 kts. Kicks out 23-00Z to SSW flow less than 10 kts for remainder of night. SCT 4000-5000ft decks this afternoon with an isolated shower possible. If a shower were to develop it would more likely be west of the terminal. There is low probability for a stratus deck to extend north enough to bring lower MVFR/IFR ceilings to or near BOS 09-13Z. Confidence too low to include in TAF. Messaged as a FEW deck at this time. Will need to monitor for a stronger signal for 00Z TAF. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Potential for MVFR/IFR ceilings after 06Z through around 12Z with BR. Confidence lower in the extent/coverage of a low stratus deck. Outlook /Sunday through Thursday/... Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SHRA likely, slight chance TSRA, patchy BR. Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. SHRA, chance TSRA. Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Winds and seas below small craft advisory levels through Sunday. Winds and seas increase late Sunday night into early Monday morning across the southern and eastern waters. Seas 5-8 ft for the outer coastal waters, especially south. 5-7 ft seas stretch into portions of the inner souther waters. SW winds 15-20 kts with gusts around 30 kts. SCAs have been issued for the southern and eastern waters included the Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound starting early Monday morning. Elevated seas will keep SCAs around through Tuesday for the southern waters. Outlook /Sunday through Thursday/... Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms, patchy fog. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Rain showers likely, slight chance of thunderstorms. Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Rain showers likely, slight chance of thunderstorms. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ232>234. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ235-237-254. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ255-256. && $$ |
| #1274077 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:12 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 409 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - A Flood Watch is in effect for the eastern Florida Panhandle and Florida Big Bend through Monday afternoon. An additional 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected in the watch area with localized additional totals of 5 to 8 inches possible. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Monday) Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Widespread light to moderate rain with embedded heavier thunderstorms continues this afternoon across much of the area. Some of this has caused localized flooding so far today with isolated totals of 3 to 6 inches. More scattered storms are developing north of this activity, and given the tropical atmosphere in place with PWATs of 2.2-2.5 inches, the locally heavy rain threat continues. Additionally, we`ll have to wait to see if a westward moving outflow boundary interact with the more unstable air to the wet. This could cause scattered storms to redevelop late this afternoon to our west that could move back to the east into this evening. If it does, it should fade after sunset given the loss of daytime instability and a more worked over environment the farther east one goes. Overnight, we`ll have a bit of a lull until late night when another round of showers and storms will develop as the shortwave moves closer. It`ll be rather similar to this morning with showers and storms moving off the Gulf with some heavy rain embedded, pushing inland through the day. Thus, the risk of flash flooding will continue through Sunday, especially in the eastern Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Given that some areas received heavy rain today, more of the area may be more susceptible to flooding on Sunday. We`ll repeat the pattern going into Sunday night and Monday, though everything begins to move farther to the east and our forcing begins to weaken somewhat. So the threat of flash flooding may begin to decrease then from a rain-rate perspective, but we could be quite saturated by that point in the eastern Big Bend. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A little of bit of lingering influence will remain from this weekend`s system on Tuesday, but we should be returning to a normal summertime pattern by mid to late week. Our temperatures will also return back to summertime averages in the low to mid 90s and heat index values of 100-105. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 139 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Fairly messy taf period with several rounds of convection possible. The ongoing round should continue to slowly push to the northeast/east through the rest of the afternoon and evening. A lull in activity is expected to start the night before another blossoming of convection early Sunday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are expected over the next few days, mainly during the overnight and morning hours. Some gusty winds, waterspouts, and heavy rain are possible. Southwest winds will increase tonight to advisory level over the open waters west of Apalachicola before subsiding Sunday night. Borderline cautionary conditions are possible in St. Andrews Bay and Apalachee Bay during that same time period. Winds become light to gentle early next week out of the southwest, then become more east to southeast late in the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Widespread wetting rains this weekend will keep fire weather concerns at a minimum. Transport winds will remain out of the west to southwest around 10-20 mph through this weekend, then lessening to 5-10 mph by Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Locally heavy rain has fallen today with some spots in the Florida Panhandle, Florida Big Bend, and southern Georgia receiving 3-6 inches of rain. This has primed the ground for additional heavy rainfall to come in the next 2 days. Models continue to show that the heaviest rain will mostly be confined to the Florida counties with potentially the greatest risk of flash flooding in the eastern Big Bend. Given this, the Flood Watch has been expanded northward to include Calhoun County FL to Madison County. Most likely additional rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches is expected in the watch area, but localized additional totals of 5-8 inches are possible. Across the rest of the area, the flood threat is more localized, but still a few place could see several inches of rain in a short period of time under a slow moving storm or two. We continue to watch the rivers in the coastal Big Bend for the potential of rises. This includes rivers such as the Sopchoppy, St. Marks, Econfina, Fenholloway, and Steinhatchee. However, most of our larger river systems should remain below flood stage. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 74 85 73 88 / 40 90 80 80 Panama City 78 86 76 89 / 60 100 80 30 Dothan 74 88 72 90 / 50 90 50 40 Albany 73 87 72 89 / 30 90 50 60 Valdosta 73 85 72 89 / 30 80 80 90 Cross City 73 84 73 87 / 80 80 80 90 Apalachicola 78 84 77 86 / 50 90 80 80 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for FLZ012>019-027>029-034- 112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426. High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for FLZ112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1274076 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:57 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 345 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 344 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Peak heat index values will range between 105 and 110 across most areas this afternoon. A Heat Advisory will be in effect from 11 AM through 6 PM for Broward and Miami Dade County. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorm will develop this afternoon with the highest chances occurring over the Lake region as well as the east coast metro areas. - High rainfall rates will be possible with the stronger storms creating the potential for localized flooding especially across the east coast metro areas. && .UPDATE... Issued at 344 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Prior forecast remains compliant and properly up-to-date with current observations. SSE winds continue to push inland across the east coast as we are seeing showers and thunderstorms begin to develop in response. Activity should continue to become more scattered in nature as the rest of the afternoon progresses, directly affecting our east coast terminals. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A rather deep mid level trough/closed low complex over the Midwest will slowly dig towards the Deep South as today progresses. The mid level low will slowly try to open up heading into Sunday as it slowly pushes southeastward, however, deep troughing will still extend into the Southeast and into the northern Gulf during this time frame. As the main trough axis will remain off to the north of the region, a weak vort max will slowly pass through the Florida Panhandle today before moving across the rest of Northern Florida tonight into Sunday. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary will remain stalled out well off to the north over the Southeast today and this front will eventually wash out heading into tonight. Another frontal boundary will slowly push through the Southeast and towards the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday. South Florida will remain well to the south of the boundary, and therefore, synoptic surface winds will generally remain south to southwesterly both today and Sunday. While a pocket of drier air in the lower to mid levels of the atmospheric column, (between 850 and 550mb), will try to hold on through most of today, the latest forecast model soundings show that this layer will give way to deeper moisture advection especially heading into this afternoon through Sunday. With increasing moisture combined with south to southwesterly wind flow, the east coast sea breeze will remain pinned over the metro areas this afternoon and then again on Sunday. With a rather light steering flow in place, showers and thunderstorms will be relatively slow moving. This, combined with the abundance of moisture pushing into the region will result in the potential for localized flooding especially over the east coast metro areas for both this afternoon and Sunday afternoon as well. Some of the thunderstorm activity will have the potential to become strong and contain gusty winds each afternoon especially over the Lake Region and portions of the east coast metro areas where instability will be maximized during peak diurnal heating. Heat will be a concern throughout the weekend as high temperatures rise into the lower to mid 90s across a good portion of South Florida. Peak heat index values will generally range between 105 and 110 across most of the region this afternoon and then once again on Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 The beginning of the week will feature the rather deep mid level trough still remaining over the Southeast as well as the northern Gulf on Monday. However, the latest global and ensemble guidance suite does show mid level ridging in the western Atlantic trying to push back over the region starting later on Monday and then even more so heading into Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, what is left of the second frontal boundary stalled out over Northern Florida as well as the Northern Gulf on Monday will gradually wash out heading into Tuesday. The western periphery of surface high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will then gradually shift back over the Florida Peninsula for Tuesday and Wednesday. This will create a wind shift allowing for winds to become south southeasterly as Monday progresses, and then slowly becoming easterly moving towards the middle of the week. With the influx of moisture continuing especially through monday, combined with the light south to southwest steering flow in place, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop as the sea breezes push inland. The east coast sea breeze will still remain relatively pinned for one more day on Monday, allowing for the highest chances of convection to remain over the interior as well as the east coast metro areas. With PWAT values generally looking to remain at 2.0 inches or higher during this time frame, heavy downpours and slow moving thunderstorms could continue the potential for localized flooding on Monday. While Tuesday and Wednesday will feature additional shower and thunderstorm development, the highest chances will shift and remain over the interior and southwest Florida each afternoon and evening during this time frame. High temperatures each day through the middle of the week will continue to rise into the lower 90s across most of South Florida. Peak heat index values will still create a heat concern during this time frame as they will range between 105 and 110 each afternoon. Easterly winds remain firmly in place heading into the second half of the week, however, uncertainty rises in the forecast during this time frame as some of the global and ensemble guidance is hinting at the potential for another weak TUTT to make a close pass near the region. This could increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame and it will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. With easterly wind flow remaining in place, the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame will continue to be focused over the interior as well as Southwest Florida. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 121 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Winds shift to the SSE this afternoon along the east coast as the sea breeze attempts to move inland. Winds will be around 10-12 kts with chances to gust up to 25-30 kts due to expected SHRA/TS coverage increasing after 18-19Z. Scattered SHRA and TSRA could impact terminals directly this afternoon through the evening, resulting in TEMPOs for MVFR/IFR conditions. Activity should clear up this evening after 01-02Z for the overnight hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A gentle to moderate south to southwesterly wind flow will continue across most of the local waters through the weekend. These winds will gradually shift and become more southeasterly as the early portion of next week progresses. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the weekend and into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 91 80 91 / 20 50 20 80 West Kendall 77 91 76 91 / 20 50 20 80 Opa-Locka 79 92 79 91 / 20 60 20 80 Homestead 79 91 79 91 / 20 60 20 70 Fort Lauderdale 79 90 80 90 / 30 60 20 80 N Ft Lauderdale 80 90 80 90 / 30 60 30 80 Pembroke Pines 80 91 80 91 / 20 60 20 80 West Palm Beach 77 91 77 91 / 40 70 40 80 Boca Raton 78 90 79 90 / 40 60 40 80 Naples 79 91 78 91 / 20 30 20 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ071>074-172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274075 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:51 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 250 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 236 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - A few storms may produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground lightning tonight and into Sunday. - A High Risk of rip currents is expected through the weekend for all area beaches. - Moderate to strong winds over the marine area may create hazardous conditions for small craft through Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A positively-tilted upper-level trough currently stretches from the Great Lakes region southwestward into the ArkLaTex. Over the next couple days, this trough will slowly push eastward with several embedded shortwaves rounding the base of this trough. At the surface, an associated cold front is located over northwestern Mississippi and will continue pushing southeastward throughout the day and into tonight. Moisture pooling out ahead of the front should allow for PWATs to increase to around 2.1-2.3 inches (generally around the 90th-95th percentile when comparing to climatology). This, along with forcing from the surface front and shortwave energy aloft, as well as strong daytime heating, should lead to the development of showers and storms along the front over portions of central MS and AL. As the front approaches and enters our northwestern counties this evening, the best forcing appears to pull away from the local area. This should lead to an overall weakening trend with storms as they enter our area. That being said, with plenty of instability in place, drier air aloft owing to DCAPEs above 1000 J/kg, along with shear values to around 25 knots, cannot rule out one or two multicellular clusters, capable of producing gusty to locally damaging winds over our northern counties this evening. The front will continue sagging to the southeast overnight tonight, setting up somewhere along the coast or just offshore by the early to mid-morning hours. Meanwhile, the next embedded shortwave is expected to pass across the area sometime around, or a little before sunrise, allowing for another round of showers and storms to redevelop. As stated before, moisture pooling will result in plenty of deep moisture to be in place along and ahead of the front, allowing for storms to be efficient rainfall-producers. And with flow moving parallel to the slow-moving front, storms may attempt to train and impact the same areas. The biggest question will be with regards to the location of the front, as this will ultimately determine where the highest coverage/heaviest rainfall will occur. Right now the latest 24hr LPMMs from the HREF suggest that localized QPF maximums of around 4-6 inches should remain just offshore. However, if the front is a bit slower and does not manage to make it offshore, I can not rule out these values being realized over portions of our coastal counties, potentially leading to a localized flash flood threat late tonight into Sunday morning. We will monitor this potential closely. The front should wash out by Sunday night/Monday and a drier airmass will begin filtering in after the passage of the upper trough axis. This will help to lower rain chances for the start of the week and possibly bring dew points into the 60s for a good portion of the area. If isolated to scattered showers and storms do manage to develop during the first half of the week, they will likely remain confined to the sea breeze boundary generally along and east of the I-65 corridor. Highs throughout the period will remain in the low to mid 90s, however, with the drier air filtering in, heat indices should remain below Heat Advisory criteria through much of the week. A High Risk of Rip Currents will be in place through Sunday night, lowering to a Moderate Risk for Monday. The rip current risk drops to a Low Risk for Tuesday and into midweek. /96 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 General VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms developing over eastern-most portions of the forecast area can bring local drops in conditions to low end MVFR. More convection developing late tonight closer to the coast and lasting into Sunday morning will again bring local drops to low/mid MVFR levels. Winds are expected to be generally westerly this afternoon though tonight, with a shift to northwesterly beginning late Sunday morning as a cold front begins to move over the forecast area. /16 && .MARINE... Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Moderate to occasionally strong westerly to southwesterly flow is expected to develop tonight and linger through Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory is in place for Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound from 7PM tonight through 7AM Sunday, and from 7PM tonight through 4PM Sunday for our local Gulf waters. Winds gradually weaken Sunday night, with a light to moderate southwesterly flow becoming prevalent for the early to middle part of next week. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 91 71 92 / 50 40 20 10 Pensacola 79 89 73 91 / 60 80 40 10 Destin 80 87 75 89 / 60 90 50 10 Evergreen 73 91 71 91 / 40 40 20 20 Waynesboro 72 92 70 92 / 70 0 0 10 Camden 72 89 71 89 / 70 10 0 20 Crestview 75 89 73 91 / 60 70 40 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$ |
| #1274074 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:48 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 340 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections have been updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) There is risk for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding across Southeast Georgia into the western South Carolina Lowcountry this afternoon and evening. A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible. - 2) Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will bring the potential for heavy rainfall, localized flooding, and/or gusty winds Sunday through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: There is risk for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding across Southeast Georgia into the western South Carolina Lowcountry this afternoon and evening. A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible. This afternoon, regional radar composite indicated a developing band of thunderstorms across southern GA, tracking northward. These storms will likely continue northward across the forecast area, partially supported by MLCAPE between 2500-3000 J/kg. Also, with the arrival of the thunderstorms, PW values will build to 2 to 2.2". These storms and associates cold pool may interact with the sea breeze to produce numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening hours. High resolution guidance indicates that multiple cell mergers or training storms may occur, especially in the vicinity of the cold pool and sea breeze. These processes could result in local areas of 2 to 4 inches of rain this afternoon and evening. The area of heaviest rainfall potential was highlighted well with the 12Z HREF, indicating a 50% of 3"/3hr along and west of I-95 across SE GA/SC. Thunderstorms should gradually dissipate during the mid to late afternoon. However, the approach of a longwave H5 trough may trigger additional showers and thunderstorms along the coast. KEY MESSAGE 2: Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will bring the potential for heavy rainfall, localized flooding, and/or gusty winds Sunday through early next week. Sunday: As the aforementioned system continues to trek eastwards, the region remain in the warm sector of the surface low pressure moving across the Ohio River Valley, with mid-level troughing expected to continue throughout the day. PWATs are expected to remain high between 2.2 - 2.4 inches (above the 90th percentile of climatology), and when combined with the warm air advection aloft and scattered shortwaves, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the day. CAPE profiles remain long and skinny through the day, which indicates potential for heavy rainfall. HREF has scattered 70% chances for an inch in 3 hours with very isolated 10% chances for 3 inches, while the REFS has lesser chances for an inch (40-50%) though still isolated 10% chances for 3 inches. As for the severe potential, with 1500-2000 J/kg of ML CAPE, highest in the late morning to mid afternoon hours, there remains potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. Given the potential for heavy downpours amidst a DCAPE environment of 500-1000 J/kg, strong wind gusts remain the primary risk. The risks for both heavy rainfall and severe potential are highest for our inland areas, lowest for areas along the coast. Monday: The aforementioned surface low pressure moves northeast into the Quebec province, with the trailing cold front extending down into Georgia and southern Alabama. Aloft, the trough turns into a closed upper level low, with scattered shortwaves continuing to overspread the region from south to north. PWATs decrease into the 2.0-2.2" range, and instability wanes to near 1000 J/kg, decreasing both the heavy rainfall and severe weather risks. However, given the expected preceding rainfall, the chances for locally heavy rainfall will persist especially for areas that saw recent heavy rains. Tuesday into the middle of the week: Previously, models brought the cold front through the region bringing an end to the wet conditions, though the latest 12Z guidance now has the front stalling off to our west as a surface high pressure builds and moves in from the Atlantic. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 18Z TAFs: The primary concern this afternoon will be the potential for thunderstorms at the terminals. Thunderstorms may develop near the sea breeze this afternoon, possibly impacting KCHS and KSAV from 19-21Z. Following the sea breeze, SSE winds may increase to 15 to 20 kts. The winds gusts should decrease this evening. The approach of a longwave H5 trough may trigger additional showers and thunderstorms along the coast. This convection will be highlighted with a PROB30 from 9-12Z. Extended Aviation Outlook: Periodic flight restrictions are expected in showers and thunderstorms through early next week. Locally heavy rainfall may produce brief IFR or lower visibility restrictions. && .MARINE... This afternoon: The National Weather Service Doppler Radar and satellite images indicated a boundary with isolated showers near the entrance of the Charleston Harbor. This line was associated with a observed waterspout on Folly Beach at 233 PM. This boundary should continue to drift north through 430 PM. The environment may support the formation of additional waterspouts along the boundary this afternoon. Tonight, the pattern will support southwest winds between 15 to 20 kts. Wave heights are forecast to build to 2 to 4 ft by late tonight. Sunday through Thursday: The pressure gradient will strengthen Sunday as broad low pressure develops inland with an approaching front and high pressure remaining in the Atlantic. Southwesterly winds will increase during the afternoon, with frequent gusts between 25 and 30 kt expected across the local waters. In addition, wave heights are forecast to increase to 4 to 7 feet Sunday evening. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the nearshore marine zones out to 20 nm and the outer Georgia waters from 20-60 nm, as well as the Charleston Harbor. Conditions should gradually improve Monday night, with benign wind and sea conditions expected for Tuesday through the rest of the period. Rip Currents: Gusty southwest winds combined with a 6 to 7 second swell and wave heights of 4-5 feet will support an elevated rip current risk on Sunday. A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents has been expanded to include the southeast Georgia beaches, remaining across the southeast South Carolina beaches. For Monday, Moderate Risk of Rip Currents continue for areas from coastal Colleton county down to the Altamaha River, with a High Risk of Rip Currents risk for the Charleston county coastline as strongest winds occur along the Charleston county coast. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: August 1: KCHS: 81/1999 KCXM: 86/1999 KSAV: 79/2020 August 2: KCHS: 79/2022 KCXM: 84/1999 KSAV: 80/1886 August 5: KCHS: 79/1980 KCXM: 82/1991 KSAV: 80/1883 August 6: KCHS: 79/1991 KCXM: 82/2006 KSAV: 80/1899 August 7: KCHS: 79/2007 KCXM: 83/2007 KSAV: 80/1879 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ340. Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ360-362. Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ364. Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to noon EDT Monday for AMZ384. && $$ |
| #1274073 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:45 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 230 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory in effect for our southern counties (including the City of Houston) through early this evening. - Frontal boundary may bring isolated showers/storms this afternoon and evening. - While a drop in humidity is expected on Sunday, hot conditions are expected with highs in the upper 90s to near 100. Even hotter on Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A weak cool front is at our doorstep early this afternoon. Latest radar and sfc obs place the boundary extending between Waco and College Stn areas as of early this afternoon. A few showers and perhaps some lightning strikes can be expected through the afternoon and evening hours as the front slowly sags southward into the region. This is a very weak and very slow-moving boundary overall. Current forecast suggests it will slowly move over the Houston metro area overnight before settling along the coast by early Sunday morning, where it will likely meander or even wash out over the coastal waters during the day. The primary impact from this FROPA will be a temporary drop in humidity as drier air filters in from the north. Inland sfc dewpoints are forecast to drop into the low 60s to low 70s throughout the day on Sunday. Consequently, expect a dry heat across most inland locations with high temps climbing into the upper 90s to near 100F. A bit of a different story is expected along the coast, however. Dewpoint values there will remain in the mid to upper 70s, keeping conditions more humid with peak heat indices reaching up to 107F. Given the close proximity of the boundary near the coast on Sunday combined with daytime heating, have maintained low-end PoPs for our southwestern counties and coastal zones through the afternoon. Upper lvl ridging builds back into the region by Monday, setting up a return to southerly flow at the surface. In other words, hot and humid conditions return with Monday`s highs in the upper 90s to near 102F. Beyond Tuesday, the weather pattern settles into a more typical, near-seasonal summertime regime. Expect diurnally-driven, isolated showers and storms primarily driven by the daily seabreeze, mainly in the each afternoons after Thursday. JM && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 537 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Cluster of showers is currently moving southward towards our northern terminals ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. This band of showers is expected to dissipate before it makes it to the Houston metro terminals. Additionally, low-end MVFR ceilings are ongoing across the northern terminals (CXO and northward) and will likely persist through 15Z. Can`t rule out brief MVFR ceilings at IAH this morning. High resolution model guidance has trended drier for this afternoon. However, given that showers are already developing up north, have decided to keep the PROB30`s for showers in the afternoon for IAH and northward. Further south, confidence remains too low to include any SH mentions. A stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out either for sites with the PROB30`s. Winds will start out southwesterly this morning around 8-12 kt with occasional gusts of 15-20 kt possible this afternoon. Winds will become light and northerly behind the front. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 South to southwest winds will gradually strengthen this afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cool front. Building seas are also anticipated, mostly remaining up to 5 ft, occasionally higher offshore. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for Galveston Bay and nearshore waters from High Island to Freeport through early Sunday. The FROPA is expected to reach the bays and coastal waters late tonight into Sunday morning. While a brief wind shift to the north-northwest will be possible over the bays and nearshore, the boundary will meander near the coast through the day; therefore, onshore winds will mainly prevail. A few showers and storms will be possible this evening and then again Sunday afternoon, depending on the final position of the FROPA. Beyond Sunday, dry and hot weather is expected with light to occasionally moderate south to southeast winds and seas around 2 to 3ft, occasionally up to 4 ft next weekend. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 74 98 74 100 / 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 78 99 77 101 / 10 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 81 93 82 94 / 20 20 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ200-213-214-226- 227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ335-355. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ335-355. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Sunday morning for GMZ375. && $$ |
| #1274072 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:15 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 302 PM AST Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 248 PM AST Sat Aug 1 2026 - Periods of showers and thunderstorms associated with afternoon convection and a passing tropical wave will continue across north-central and western Puerto Rico today, increasing the risk of localized flooding and disruptions to outdoor activities. - Low concentrations of Saharan dust will persist through tomorrow evening before increasing to moderate to high levels by the start of the workweek, leading to hazy skies and deteriorating air quality. - Significant to elevated heat risk will persist across lower elevations and urban areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through most of the period, increasing the potential for heat- related illnesses, especially during the workweek. && .Short Term(This evening through Monday)... Issued at 248 PM AST Sat Aug 1 2026 Variable weather conditions prevailed across the local islands this morning as deep tropical moisture associated with a departing tropical wave continued to stream across the region. Passing showers affected windward coastal areas, while streamer activity developed downwind of the U.S. Virgin Islands and north of the San Juan metro area. One of these bands produced heavy showers just north of the Luis Munoz Marin International Airport, where a waterspout was reported downwind of this area, just offshore near Balneario El Escambron. Across western Puerto Rico, skies remained partly cloudy to mostly sunny through the morning. The 01/12Z TJSJ sounding sampled a very moist environment, with precipitable water increasing to 2.08 inches, well above normal for this time of year. Combined with lingering instability aloft associated with an upper-level trough west of the islands, conditions became favorable for afternoon convection. As expected, showers and thunderstorms developed over the interior and western sections of Puerto Rico, producing locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and isolated gusty winds. For Sunday, although the axis of the tropical wave will be well west of the region, its trailing moisture will remain in place while additional low-level moisture associated with a surface-induced trough currently east of the forecast area lifts northward across the northeastern Caribbean. Forecast soundings continue to indicate above-normal precipitable water values near or around 2 inches through much of the day, along with sufficiently moist mid-level conditions to support another active convective afternoon. Passing showers will once again affect the windward sectors during the morning, followed by thunderstorms developing over the interior and spreading toward western and northwestern Puerto Rico during the afternoon. While rainfall coverage is not expected to be widespread enough to provide meaningful drought relief, localized higher rainfall totals are possible beneath stronger thunderstorms. The combination of abundant moisture, lingering upper-level instability, and local sea-breeze convergence may also support a few stronger thunderstorms capable of producing frequent lightning, isolated wind gusts, and localized flooding, especially across western Puerto Rico. A drier pattern is expected to develop Sunday night into Monday as a Saharan Air Layer moves into the region. Model guidance shows precipitable water values decreasing to below normal or near seasonal levels while mid-level moisture also declines. As a result, Monday should be the driest day of the period, with hazy skies, reduced air quality, and less widespread convection. Nevertheless, afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms remain possible across the interior and western Puerto Rico due to daytime heating, sea breeze convergence, and local effects. Heat indices will continue to exceed 100 degrees across urban and lower elevations each afternoon. && .Long Term(Tuesday through next Friday)... Issued at 322 AM AST Sat Aug 1 2026 Excessive heat will remain the primary hazard, with significant heat risk levels possible throughout the long-term period. Saharan dust should also linger into midweek, maintaining hazy skies and reduced air quality. A tropical wave is expected to move across the region early to midweek, increasing shower and isolated thunderstorm activity, with the greatest potential currently anticipated on Wednesday. Despite generally drier conditions during the remainder of the period, diurnal heating and local effects should support afternoon convection each day. Widespread flooding is not anticipated at this time, although locally heavy rainfall could result in ponding of water on roads and in poorly drained areas. Forecast confidence decreases toward the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 248 PM AST Sat Aug 1 2026 Mainly VFR conds will prevail, with brief MVFR in SHRA/TSRA. VCTS expected this aftn across the interior and W PR, affecting mainly TJPS/TJBQ btwn 17-22Z with brief vsby reductions, MT OBSC, and gusty/erratic winds. Isold SHRA will continue across windward terminals at times. Sfc winds ESE 10-18 kt with higher gusts and sea breeze variations, becoming lighter aft 23Z. Waterspouts remain psbl over the local waters, especially near heavier SHRA/TSRA. One waterspout was reported this morning just offshore north of the San Juan metro area. && .MARINE... Issued at 248 PM AST Sat Aug 1 2026 Tonight into Sunday, expect period of showers and thunderstorms across portions of the regional waters and passages as a tropical wave continues to move across the region. Meanwhile, a surface high pressure extending from the central Atlantic will continue to promote moderate to locally fresh trades through next week. Occasional seas up to 6 feet are expected across the offshore Atlantic and Caribbean waters, and the Anegada and Mona Passages. Seas and winds are expected to remain below small craft advisory criteria through next week. However, locally stronger winds due to the sea breeze are expected each afternoon across the Atlantic and Caribbean coastal waters of Puerto Rico. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 248 PM AST Sat Aug 1 2026 A moderate risk of rip currents will persist across the northwest to southeast beaches of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and St. Croix through tonight. A low risk is expected across the western to southern beaches of PR, and most beaches of St. Thomas and St. John tonight through Tuesday. Nevertheless, beachgoers should be aware that life-threatening rip currents often occur in the vicinity of groins, jetties, reefs, and piers even when the risk is low. By Tuesday, the risk will become low across all coastal areas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 248 PM AST Sat Aug 1 2026 Influx of moisture during the weekend could aid in improving overall fire weather conditions. However, critically dry fuels persist across southern Puerto Rico and St. Croix, with Keetch- Byram Drought Index (KBDI) values remaining well above the critical threshold. East to east-southeast winds are expected to remain above or near the threshold values, slightly which could promote the rapid spread of any fire that develops. Residents and visitors should avoid outdoor burning and exercise caution with activities that could generate sparks or open flames, especially across areas with critically dry vegetation. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1274071 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:15 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 307 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 301 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Additional rounds of showers and storms are forecast through the weekend and into early next week. Storms may form earlier in the day than usual. Frequent lightning and gusty winds to 40-50 mph will be the primary hazards. - A Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall leading to flooding continues across all of East Central Florida through Monday. A few spots may see rainfall amounts over 3", leading to flooding. - High pressure expands over Florida early next week. However, continued high moisture and sea breeze interactions should keep storm chances elevated, especially over the interior and Lake Okeechobee region. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Currently...Scattered to numerous showers and storms once again got going on the earlier side, and the many have already pushed south of the Orlando Metro and offshore Volusia coast, transiting the southern counties and approaching the coast from the Cape south. Between the early start and subsequent higher cloud cover, daytime heating hasn`t been able to provide much instability and most convection has been rather mushy so far. A few gusts 25-35 mph have been observed, as have pockets of 2" rainfall. Rest of Today-Tonight...A low pressure system moving towards the Ohio Valley will deepen as a sharp trough cuts down south over the Eastern US. While the low will finally lift the stalled front to our north away, moisture will begin surging across Florida in the wake of this system. In the few places that aren`t clouded over, GOES imagery shows PWATs from 1.9-2.2" (75th to 95th climatological percentiles), backed by this morning`s soundings. Values could push as high as 2.4" (near to exceeding climatological max), leading to a favorable environment for heavy rainfall leading to minor flooding, and the Weather Prediction Center has again outlined all of East Central Florida in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. While most locations will see rainfall amounts 0.5" or less, a few spots will get up to 2" , and one or two spots could see amounts over 3". The greatest potential for these higher amounts will be along the coast from the Cape south as activity collides with the sea breeze, which has barely managed to develop before being overrun. The highly saturated atmosphere isn`t generally conducive to downdrafts, but water loading could produce gusty winds to around 45 mph. Frequent lightning will also accompany the strongest storms. Forecast calls for high temperatures in the L90s, but those temperatures may be in the rear view mirror for places that already got heavy rainfall, if reached at all. Sunday-Monday...The mid-upper level trough continues digging south over the Eastern US towards the Gulf and Florida Sunday, then the mid-level low becomes cut-off over the Tennessee Valley. The associated surface low elongates and weakens in response, but will help pull anomalously high moisture over the Florida peninsula in southwesterly flow between the low and high pressure east of Bermuda. Rain chances remain well above normal, especially on Sunday which is shaping up to be pretty dreary, with multiple rounds of scattered to numerous showers and storms possible (chances up to 60-80%) and overcast skies. Highest chances will continue to be in the afternoons and evenings as the sea breezes attempt to form and daytime heating provides what little destabilization it can, but bands of vorticity transiting the base of the trough aloft could support showers and storms in the overnights and mornings (chances 30% or less). More locations could see rainfall amounts up to 2" Sunday with the high coverage and repeated rounds, then more limited potential Monday as rain chances back off a bit. The Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall will continue for all of East Central Florida through Monday. Temperatures are forecast to be near to slightly below normal (if you can believe that) in the U80s-L90s thanks to the rain and cloud cover. Peak afternoon heat indices even dip into the 90s across most of the area Sunday, then up to the L-M100s Monday. Tuesday-Friday...Return to more typical mid-Summer conditions. The cut-off mid-level low lingers over the Appalachians before getting swept up by a broad trough swinging across Canada and the northern US mid-week, returning more seasonal broad ridging overhead. At the surface, the ridge axis of the Atlantic high lifts back towards Florida and eventually north of the area, shifting winds southerly Tuesday into Wednesday, then onshore again late in the week. The plume of anomalously high moisture is expected to linger across Florida through mid-week, before more easterly flow ushers it westward towards the Gulf, but will continue to see near to above normal moisture advected across the peninsula in the onshore flow. Rain chances remain above normal for most of the area, generally 40-70% each afternoon-evening, with the highest chances shifting towards the interior as the east coast sea breeze is able to push farther inland each day. Can`t rule out some minor flooding concerns, but the threat looks to be closer to that typically from our afternoon thunderstorms. While technically warmer conditions are forecast as rain chances decrease some, temperatures will be very near normal with afternoon highs mostly in the U80s-L90s, pushing towards the M90s inland in some spots. Peak heat indices generally 101-105, but a few locations could perk towards 107. HeatRisk impacts Minor to Moderate. && .MARINE... Issued at 301 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Today-Wednesday...While winds and seas are generally favorable for boating, scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms will continue to impact the local Atlantic waters through at least mid-week, and some higher winds are possible offshore Sunday into Monday. The Atlantic high remains shunted south and offshore by a pair of low pressure systems, one over the eastern US (the stronger of the two) and another ejecting into the Canadian Maritimes. Southwesterly to south flow will continue across the area between these features into Monday, then become southerly and eventually onshore into mid-week as the low over the eastern US weakens and departs, allowing the Atlantic high to build back to Florida, with the ridge axis eventually settling north of the area. The sea breeze circulation will attempt to shift winds more southeasterly from the afternoon into the early overnight, until the onshore winds become established, then shifting winds ERLY. Speeds generally 5-15 kts, but will occasionally push over 15 kts at times. Small craft may need to exercise caution for winds 15-20 kts offshore north of the Cape Sunday into Monday. Seas 1-2 feet this afternoon build a bit to 1-3 ft tonight through the rest of the period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 123 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Another early initiation of convection as anticipated north of I-4. This trend will continue to expand toward the coast and southward thru the afternoon. SCT-NMRS coverage expected. The ECSB should develop, but inland movement will be stymied by the westerly flow. This feature will collide with convection moving in from the west which should create a few strong pulse storms at the coast. "Vicinity" & "TEMPO" wording in most TAFs for this aftn/early eve. Should see gusty winds again with many storms. Activity winds down this evening, but may need to monitor for convection north/west of I- 4 later tonight. For Sun, rinse/repeat once again with early initiation and high coverage of showers and storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 87 74 90 / 30 60 20 60 MCO 75 88 75 90 / 20 60 20 60 MLB 75 88 75 89 / 30 60 20 60 VRB 74 89 75 90 / 30 60 20 60 LEE 75 86 75 89 / 40 60 30 60 SFB 76 88 75 90 / 30 60 20 60 ORL 76 88 75 90 / 30 60 20 60 FPR 74 89 74 90 / 30 60 20 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1274070 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:06 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 302 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Have issued small craft advisories for our waters starting on Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Last dry day today. 2) Warm front/coastal trough moves through Sunday morning, with above average rain chances Sunday into midweek. Marine: SCA conditions develop Sunday into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1..Southerly onshore flow and a mix of high clouds and diurnal Cu will be the name of the game this afternoon as high pressure continues to shift further offshore. This mornings upper air sounding still shows pretty widespread dry air across ENC today so outside of some increasing cloud cover as moisture continues to advect in moistening up the atm profile, not expecting much in the way of rain this afternoon. Highs get into the low 90s to upper 80s inland and mid 80s along the coast and OBX today. KEY MESSAGE 2...We enter into an unsettled pattern once again starting tonight into Sunday with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms into at least mid week. Upper level trough currently in the Midwest will dive SE`wards into the Tennessee River Valley Sun into Mon eventually stalling as an upper level ridge blocks this troughs forward progress. At the mid levels, will see multiple shortwaves round the base of this trough promoting periods of lift across ENC and the offshore waters with the first weak mid level shortwave tracking along the coast starting tonight into Sun morning with additional shortwaves coming in from the west Sun afternoon and again on Mon/Tue. At the surface, closed low in the Midwest will gradually shift E`wards into the Ohio River Valley with its associated surface front stalling just to the west. These features, in addition to the sea breeze each afternoon/evening, will be the main forcing present for a notable increase in precip chances. Starting later tonight into Sun there will be two areas of focus for shower and thunderstorm activity. The first will be overnight into Sun morning along and behind a N`ward moving warm front/coastal trough with much of the activity occuring near and east of Hwy 17. We should still be too dry aloft inland as the boundary moves through, so thunder chances remain low inland Sun morning. Proximity to the gulf stream could allow isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to reach coastal communities south of Oregon Inlet. The second will be in the afternoon/evening with shower and thunderstorm activity coming in from the west associated with the stalling upper trough. Cloud cover will play a big role in how high instability can truly get, but with the dewpoints rising there should be enough instability entering the region for 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE Sunday. While shear is not too impressive with the unidirectional SE flow, the combination of long, skinny CAPEs, PWATs over 2", and slow storm motions could result in heavy rainfall rates and wet microbursts where storms develop. The best coverage is expected to be to our west closer to I-95, with more isolated to scattered coverage across the Coastal Plain but will continue to monitor trends in the CAM guidance and adjust PoPs accordingly. Monday the trough will remain stalled to our west and gradually weaken. This reduces the potential for height falls over the region despite the trough creeping a bit closer. Still, we should see embedded shortwaves moving through aloft. Slightly better forcing, paired with another day of long skinny CAPEs and PWATs north of 2" brings higher precip chances compared to Sunday with heavy rainfall rates, a low end wet microburst threat, and slow storm motion vectors. All this brings flash flooding concerns to mind, especially with how much rain has been observed in many locations in the past 1-2 weeks. We are currently in a Marginal (level 1/5) Excessive Rain Outlook for Sunday and Monday with best chances at seeing flash flooding likely along Hwy 17 and points east. What prevents it from being higher is the uncertainty on instability with antecedent cloud cover and the lack of substantial ground-level forcing. With high temps forecast to only be in the low to mid 80s Monday, the sea breeze may be weak in nature. Beyond Monday, the trough/low is still expected to linger to our west until eventually it gets picked up and shifted to our north by another trough moving through the Great Lakes region. As a result, daily elevated precip chances continue through mid-week with a low end risk for flash flooding. By the end of the week it looks like we return back to climo or below climo PoPs as a lack of mid level shortwaves or significant forcing will be noted across ENC though we do begin to warm back up with temps returning to the upper 80s to low 90s inland and mid 80s along the OBX. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions continue across ENC with steady S`rly flow at 5-10 kts with gusts up around 15 kts noted today. In addition to this, a mix of high clouds and diurnal Cu have developed across ENC today with the lowest ceilings remaining around 4-6 kft. Any diurnal Cu that develops today will quickly dissipate around sunset. VFR conditions are forecast to continue into tonight before flying conditions begin to deteriorate. Latest 12Z guidance continues to suggest MVFR ceilings encroach from the west after 06Z and then track towards the coast through the morning Sunday as a coastal trough/weak warm front lift north across the region before lifting late Sunday morning/early Sun afternoon back to VFR conditions. As a result, have introduced MVFR ceilings at ISO/PGV terminals between 06-09Z and at the EWN/OAJ terminals between 09-12Z Sun with VFR conditions returning between 15-18Z across all terminals on this update. Coastal regions could see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight into Sun morning along and behind the aforementioned coastal trough. Ended up keeping OAJ/EWN dry through 06Z but have included a PROB30 group at these terminals after about 09Z. Additional rounds of showers and storms that may impact the further inland terminals (ISO/PGV) will be possible Sun afternoon. Outlook (Sunday night through Thursday): Periods of sub-VFR ceilings/vis are possible Sun night into early next week as ENC enters into a more unsettled period of weather with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms with a stalled upper trough off to the west. Precip chances and thus the threat for sub-VFR conditions look to decrease beyond Wed. && .MARINE... Biggest chance on this update was the inclusion of small craft advisories starting on Sunday across all near shore coastal waters and inland waters. Ongoing 5-10 kt S-SE`rly winds with gusts up to 15 kts will continue into tonight with winds becoming more S-SW`rly and increasing to 15-25 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts late Sun morning into Sun afternoon. IN response to the strengthening winds Sun, expect ongoing 1-3 ft seas across our coastal waters to build late Sun morning to 4-8 ft by Sun evening, thus resulting in widespread SCA conditions. In addition to this as a weak warm front/ coastal trough lifts north across the area increasing shower and thunderstorm chances are likely starting from south to north Sun morning and persisting into the end of the period. Outlook (Sunday night through Thursday): Southerly winds remain elevated into Monday before gradually decreasing Mon afternoon and evening keeping SCA in place. Winds will ease first across the inland waters and N`rn sounds thus ending SCA`s by Mon morning here with SCA`s ending across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet by Mon evening. Expect more benign winds and seas from Tue onwards as weak high pressure builds over the area. In addition to the above, elevated chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain possible into midweek. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ131-150-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ136- 137. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154-156-158. && $$ |
| #1274069 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:03 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 300 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Bay for this afternoon into tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A typical summertime pattern prevails Sunday through the middle of next week, with near average temperatures, increasingly humid conditions, and daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 PM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...A typical summertime pattern prevails Sunday through the middle of next week, with near average temperatures, increasingly humid conditions, and daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. GOES water vapor channels depict a slow moving upper low over the mid-Mississippi Valley with moist southerly flow ahead of the upper low over the Mid-Atlantic. Surface high pressure is now centered well offshore of the Southeast coast. There is a lee-side trough over the Piedmont and low-level SSE flow has allowed moisture to pool along that boundary. Given this, some isolated showers/tstms have developed in an environment featuring SBCAPE ~1500 J/kg and low- level lapse rates of 7.0-7.5 C/km. Mid-level lapse rates are rather poor, so these showers/tstms are not particularly tall. Temperatures are in the mid/upper 80s, and slightly more humid than the past few days with dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Warm and more humid tonight with low temperatures of 70-75F. Mainly dry, with a slight chc of showers over the Piedmont and coastal SE VA/NE NC toward morning. The pattern becomes more unsettled by Sunday, and this will continue into early next week as the slow moving upper-level trough approaches from the west. At the same time, a weak cold front approaches from the north, but will remain north of the local area through Monday (and likely wash out by Tuesday). With the approaching trough and Bermuda high pressure well offshore, deep- layered S to SW flow will prevail. This will allow rich Gulf moisture to overspread the area on Sunday and remain over us early next week. PWs surge to 2.2-2.4" by later Sunday/Sunday night. Scattered to potentially numerous showers/tstms are expected Sunday. The highest precip chances will initially be across south-central VA during the afternoon (as the deep moisture arrives here first). Showers and tstms should gradually spread NE through the evening (though it may very well remain dry near the immediate coast and on the Eastern Shore). Showers/tstms are likely across the entire area on Monday as a lead shortwave potentially tracks over the area. Monday appears to be the day with the highest convective coverage during the period. The trough dampens a bit from Tuesday/Wednesday, but scattered showers and tstms are still expected during the aftn/evening on both days as weak SW flow aloft continues and deep moisture remains nearby. Given the environment, and relatively weak unidirectional flow aloft and tall/skinny CAPE, there will be a threat of localized flash flooding each day, but the severe threat should remain relatively low with these tstms. Days 2-4 (Sunday through Tuesday) are in a `Marginal` ERO as the overall flash flood risk is more isolated given a lack of a larger scale focusing mechanism, as the aforementioned front remains north of the local area. High temperatures dip down slightly below average during the early week period thanks to the cloud cover and multiple rounds of showers/tstms. Though not quite as unsettled as the first half of the week, the latter half of the week will see isolated to scattered afternoon showers and tstms. With the decreased convective coverage forecast, temperatures will return to near to slightly above normal with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Saturday... High pressure was centered well off the Southeast coast as of 18z, with a subtle trough over the Piedmont. VFR with a few showers/tstms in vicinity of the trough, but this activity should remain N/NW of RIC. The wind was S 8-12kt. Primarily VFR the remainder of the aftn through tonight, with a slight chc of showers near the coast late tonight/early Sunday morning. Patchy MVFR cigs are possible Sunday morning, with some IFR W of RIC. Otherwise, showers/tstms are likely Sunday aftn, which have the potential to produce brief IFR vsby in heavy rain. The wind will mainly be S/SSE 5-10kt tonight, and then S/SSW 8-12kt Sunday. Outlook: Shower/tstm chances continue Sunday night and Monday as a slow moving upper trough approaches the area, and linger into Tuesday through Thursday. Periodic sub-VFR conditions are possible during this time, mainly from early morning stratus, and brief vsby restrictions in heavy rain. && .MARINE... As of 140 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay from this afternoon into the early overnight hours. - Another period of SCA conditions is likely Sunday afternoon into Monday ahead of a weakening cold front. High pressure is now offshore as of this afternoon. Meanwhile, a sfc low has become nearly vertically stacked with the upper low over the lower midwest. Latest obs show southerly winds around 10kt with gusts to 15kt. Seas are around 2ft and waves in the bay/rivers are around 1ft. The stacked low will slowly move east over the next couple of days. Guidance suggests that the gradient between this low and high pressure offshore will tighten sufficiently to result in 15-20 kt SE winds over the Ches Bay later this afternoon through the evening hours. SCAs are in effect for the bay from 4pm to 1am to cover this. Winds in the tidal rivers, Currituck Sound, and offshore zones are expected to stay below SCA thresholds. Winds are expected to relax back into the 10-15 kt range after midnight. Waves and seas briefly build to 2-3 ft during the enhanced SE flow tonight. The surface low and its associated cold front will translate slowly eastward on Sunday, allowing the pressure gradient to steepen again. Additional SCA headlines are likely Sunday night into Monday for the majority of the local waters. Given a longer duration SW flow event, seas will have more time to build into the 3-6 ft range (0-20nm range, highest N). Farther offshore, seas increase to 5-7 ft for a period late Sunday into Monday. The front is forecast to wash out over inland areas late Monday into Tuesday. Afternoon and evening shower and storm chances return Sunday and linger well into next week with locally higher winds/waves/seas likely to accompany the stronger convection. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634. && $$ |
| #1274068 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:54 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 243 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes coming down the track as we head towards 3 PM EDT. Updated the aviation section below for the 18Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Wet and unsettled pattern Sunday through at least mid week. - 2) Strong southerly winds and hazardous marine conditions expected to develop Sunday into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1...Wet and unsettled pattern Sunday through at least mid week. Latest surface analysis shows an old frontal boundary that snakes through middle TN to metro Atlanta to the southern portions of the CSRA to SC Lowcountry and offshore. Aloft, an upper low is spinning over Illinois and Indiana, while ridging holds on over the Atlantic. Increased gradient flow has been noted between these two upper level features, and the coastal Carolinas are in perfect position to soak up lower level moisture from the SE to SSE. In the 300-700 mb layer, deep SW flow is ushering even more rich moisture form the Gulf. Convection is already starting to stir up along the shortwaves in the SC Pee Dee region. Scattered showers and storms expected to continue this afternoon and evening, mostly in northeast SC. Tonight should have an overall lull in the activity, besides a few stray showers or storms trying to push into the Pee Dee region, or offshore storms attempting to scrape the coast. Moisture continues to load into the air Sunday, creating a tropical atmosphere without the tropical system. Precipitable water (PWAT) values jump up into the 2.00-2.25" range, which is right around 125-150% of normal for this time of year. The warm front will lift northward, aiding in the initial lift for showers and storms to the area. Showers and storms are expected to become more widespread along the coast at first, translating to the inland areas by later Sunday afternoon. Forecast guidance shows that the upper low doesn`t appear quite as stagnant as it did 24 hours ago. Even so, the trough axis will amplify and dig as far south as the Gulf coast. This enhances the ribbon of moisture transport across the eastern Carolinas, allowing for healthy doses of rain to continue through at least Tuesday. The trough appears to loosen up a bit by Wednesday, although guidance is shaky on the details. Periods of rain could easily go into Wednesday if the moisture regime is maintained. The system appears to favor coastal areas with the most rainfall amounts, potentially 1-2 inches. Inland areas look more like 0.50-0.75". Locally higher amounts are possible everywhere. Training in storms may create isolated flooding in some spots. Widespread dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 70s will promote healthy buoyancy, leading to moderate instability each day. Isolated severe weather possible each day, particularly damaging winds. .KEY MESSAGE 2...Strong southerly winds and hazardous marine conditions expected to develop Sunday into Monday. Small Craft Advisory in effect. See the Marine section below for more details. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR to open the 18Z TAF period, with restrictions on the way. Scattered convection over the SC Midlands and Pee Dee may try to spill over into KFLO and KLBT through this evening, creating brief MVFR to IFR conditions in heavy rain or TSRA. Overall lull in the activity expected tonight, but PROB30 groups were included after 06Z to account for storms potentially scraping the coastal terminals. Ceilings come down through the overnight hours, where many could be battling MVFR after 06Z. Warm front pushes onshore Sunday, creating more widespread showers and storms towards the end of the period. MVFR ceilings dominate, with IFR possible during TSRA. Extended Forecast...A slow moving upper trough settling over the region, combined with an anomalously moist airmass, will support periods of showers and storms from Sunday afternoon through at least the middle part of next week. Periodic sub-VFR restrictions will be possible in heavier showers and thunderstorms. The moist low-level airmass will also support a greater potential for morning stratus each day. && .MARINE... Through Thursday...Moderate breeze out of the SE veer to the S tonight, as a warm front lifts back to the coast. Seas start to increase modestly at first, going from 2-3 ft to 3-5 ft. Winds increase considerably on Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens and the front lifts inland, resulting in a fresh to strong breeze out of the SW to SSW. Small Craft Advisory goes into effect at noon EDT Sunday for the coastal waters from Surf City, NC to South Santee River, SC out 20 nm, expiring at 8 PM EDT Monday. In response to these gradient winds, seas rapidly increase to 4-7 ft out 20 nm, up to 7-8 out 60 nm, before improving gradually towards 3-4 ft Monday night and Tuesday. Winds back slightly to the S Tuesday, improving to a moderate breeze, and then towards a gentle breeze by Thursday. Seas continue to improve to 2-3 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1274067 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:36 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 134 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 127 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - A Heat Advisory is in place for inland Kenedy county until 6 PM Saturday for heat indices up to 116. An SPS is in place for the remainder of deep South Texas until 6 PM today for heat indices to 111. - Hot, breezy conditions will continue. SPS and/or Heat Advisories are likely through Tuesday with "feels like" temps between 105-115 and a Major to Extreme risk of heat related illness. - Low chance (20% or less) of isolated showers and thunderstorms on Sunday west of US281. Otherwise, rain-free conditions persist. - Borderline Fire Danger Statement (RFD) conditions can be expected at times early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 127 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Ridging will maintain hot and dry conditions, with widespread Major (and pockets of Extreme) risk of heat-related illness continuing into next week. There is a Heat Advisory in effect for inland Kenedy County until 6 PM Saturday. High temperatures in the triple digits will allow for heat indices to rise to 105-115, highest along I-69E and in the mid to upper RGV. Overnight low temperatures may break record "high minimum" temperatures through much of the forecast with lows near 80, providing little relief from the daytime heat. Record high temperatures at the McAllen MFE climate site will be tested today and tomorrow. Special Weather Statements and/or Heat Advisories are possible each day through Tuesday. Upper level ridging translating westward over the desert SW allows moisture to return today and tomorrow, increasing PWATs to 2-2.2 inches. A weak front stalling over central TX will bring a low (20% or less) chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours. Widespread rainfall coverage is not expected, but low chance PoPs are in place west of US281. Most places that see rainfall should expect a half an inch or less. Ridging continues to build eastward next week, suppressing rain chances Monday onward. By the end of next week, low chance pops return near the coast as coastal troughing parks near deep S TX. The enhanced thermal gradient will allow gusty winds around 20-25 mph to continue each day. Moisture returning this weekend should keep minimum relative humidity (RH) values above levels of concern regarding fire weather. Early next week, afternoon minimum RH of 20- 45% paired with gusty winds may raise concerns of fire weather conditions in the Rio Grande Plains and RGV. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the TAF cycle. Hot temperatures in the triple digits with gusty south-southeasterly winds will continue through the afternoon and evening. Winds diminish overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 127 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Generally moderate south-southeasterly winds and slight seas are expected through the period. Gusty winds are possible with an enhanced pressure gradient, which will likely bring Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions each day over the Laguna Madre. There could be brief periods where winds reach low end Small Craft Advisory. Mostly dry conditions are expected outside of an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible on the Gulf waters Sunday ahead of a stalling front over central TX. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 99 79 98 / 0 10 0 0 HARLINGEN 77 102 76 102 / 0 10 0 0 MCALLEN 81 105 80 105 / 0 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 79 104 79 105 / 0 10 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 89 80 89 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 97 78 97 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ251. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274066 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 105 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 104 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Heat index values of 105-109 are expected, isolated locations 110- 113. WBGT will be high to extreme across South Texas. - Elevated fire weather conditions expected through early next week over the western Brush country. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms expected on Sunday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 104 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 High pressure will continue to be in control of our weather over the next week. As mentioned previously, the eastern flank of the ridge will weaken due to a strengthening trough, which will increase moisture into the area. PWATs are anticipated to reach 2" as moisture pools ahead of a weak surface reflection of this trough. As this moves south, a low (15-25%) chance of showers and thunderstorms will develop Sunday before drier air moves, effectively ending our rain chances for the upcoming work week. Temperatures will remain hot through the upcoming week. Heat index values will range from 105-109, with isolated locations reaching 110- 113. While this already sounds miserable for anyone outside, a better indicator of heat-related impacts is the WetBulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), which takes the sun angle, latitude, temperature, sky cover, wind, and moisture into account. For this weekend through the upcoming week, WGBT is generally extreme, though a few locations will "only" be high. This means for every hour you spend outside, you should take a 20 minute break. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 104 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 VFR conditions will continue through this afternoon and most of tonight. Brief MVFR conditions are expected once again toward Sunday morning. south to southeasterly winds will be 5-15 knots with occasional gusts around 20 knots, mainly eastern TAF sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 104 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A gentle to moderate onshore (largely S-SE) flow can be expected through the forecast period, with occasional fresh winds during the overnight and morning hours. Seas will generally range from 2-4 feet through the forecast period. The only appreciable rain chances in the period will be on Sunday and even then chances will only be around 20%. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 79 97 78 97 / 10 20 0 0 Victoria 78 100 75 100 / 20 20 10 0 Laredo 82 103 80 106 / 10 10 10 0 Alice 78 100 76 102 / 10 20 10 0 Rockport 81 94 81 92 / 10 10 0 0 Cotulla 82 103 79 105 / 10 20 10 0 Kingsville 78 99 77 100 / 10 20 0 0 Navy Corpus 81 91 81 90 / 10 10 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ234-241>247- 342>344-346-347. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274065 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 204 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Flood Watch for locations west of I-75. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts of 4 to 6 inches - Numerous TStorms this Weekend through Early Next Week. Strong Storm Potential Each Afternoon and Evening. Daily Rounds of Heavy Downpours May Cause Localized Flooding - Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches on Sunday && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights through Tonight: - Rounds of Showers and Thunderstorms, Isolated Strong Storms through the rest of Today - Locally Heavy rainfall and flooding Possible, mainly west of the I- 75 corridor Waves of showers and storms will persist through the rest of the afternoon as southwesterly flow will continue to bring tropical moisture into the area, with PWATs sitting in the 2"+ range. Current rainfall totals west of I-75 range between 1 and 3 inches, with the highest totals found in our far western locations of NE FL. With further development of showers and storms expected, could see reasonable higher totals of 4 to 6 inches for some locations. This area remains highlighted with a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall from WPC through the rest of Today and into Sunday, with Flood Watch currently in place through the Weekend. Activity will lessen by the overnight hours, but will still have some locations with some showers persisting into Sunday. The showers across the area is keeping most locations below 90F early this afternoon, with only locations along the SE GA coast in the lower 90s at this time. Overnight lows remain in the 70s. Highs will be slightly lower than yesterday in the upper 80s along the I-75 corridor to the low 90s elsewhere. Overnight lows remain in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Rounds of Showers and Thunderstorms, Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible - Locally Heavy rainfall potential into Monday A Flood Watch remains in effect through Monday evening for Gilchrist, Suwannee, southwestern Columbia, western Alachua, and western Marion Counties. Persistent southwesterly flow will transport anomalously deep tropical moisture into the region, with precipitable water values surging to 2.2 to 2.4 inches, nearing daily record levels. On Sunday, a mid level trough over the southern Appalachians will elongate as Atlantic ridging builds westward. This pattern slows the frontal boundary northwest of the area and strengthens southwesterly flow. Abundant moisture, instability, and large scale ascent will support widespread showers and thunderstorms, initially across inland northeast Florida, expanding northward into southeast Georgia and eastward toward the I-95 corridor. Widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected west of I 75 through Monday, with localized amounts of 4 to 6 inches possible in areas of slow moving or training thunderstorms. Flooding remains a primary concern for low lying areas, urban centers, poor drainage locations, and small creeks. The Weather Prediction Center has maintained a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall across the Suwannee Valley and Flood Watch area, with a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for the remainder of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia through Sunday. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday and Monday, primarily producing damaging wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph, along with torrential rainfall and frequent lightning. Southwesterly winds will remain breezy at 10 to 15 mph, with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph. Monday, the upper trough evolves into a closed low, maintaining deep moisture and storm coverage through the evening. Temperatures will remain below normal, with highs in the mid to upper 80s inland and near 90 along the coast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Decreasing Coverage of Thunderstorms by Midweek - Heat advisories likely needed Wednesday through Friday The synoptic pattern will gradually shift mid week as the upper level low lifts northeast and Atlantic ridging expands across the Florida Peninsula. This transition will weaken the prevailing southwesterly flow, returning the region to a typical summertime sea breeze regime. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Tuesday as Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes merge near the US 17 corridor. From Wednesday through Thursday, the Atlantic surface ridge axis lifts into southeast Georgia, establishing southeasterly flow. This will push the Atlantic sea breeze inland, triggering collisions with the Gulf sea breeze between Highway 301 and I-75. By Friday, easterly flow will focus thunderstorm development well inland near the I-75 corridor, reducing rain chances at the coast. Temperatures will trend upward, reaching lower to middle 90s inland from Wednesday through Friday. Heat indices will climb back to 105 to 110 degrees across inland northeast Florida as rainfall and cloud coverage decrease. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Southwesterly winds continue this afternoon with speeds of 10 kts outside of SHRA and TSRA. Showers and storms will continue to move across the TAF sites between through about 23Z. Have TEMPOs for stronger storms capable of gusty winds and lower VSBYs due to heavy rainfall. Showers will continue to push across the inland TAF sites through the overnight hours. && .MARINE... A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary over the Georgia waters today, while high pressure remains situated over the southeastern Gulf. This weather pattern will create a prevailing offshore wind flow, with the afternoon sea breeze shifting winds to southerly in the afternoon and then back to southwesterly overnight. Coverage of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will increase this weekend and early next week as the frontal boundary over the Georgia waters lifts northward as a warm front ahead of another cold front that will be entering the southeastern states. Southwesterly winds will strengthen ahead of this front beginning Sunday morning, with Caution level wind speeds likely and periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions possible through early Monday. Strong storms will be possible each afternoon and evening through Tuesday. Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds this weekend through Monday will likely yield a low to low-end moderate risk at area beaches. && .FIRE WEATHER... Main Highlights This Period: - Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms through Monday. - Locally heavy rainfall. - Gusty and erratic winds near convection. - Heat advisories likely needed Wednesday through Friday An active, wet pattern persists through the weekend as a nearly stationary frontal boundary lingers near southeast Georgia. Persistent southwesterly flow will drive numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms through Monday. Outside of storms, southwesterly winds of 10 to 15 mph (gusts 20 25 mph) are expected across northeast Florida. Fire weather operations should anticipate sudden, erratic wind shifts associated with thunderstorm outflows. Dispersion values will generally remain good due to increased transport winds, though cloud cover and precipitation will limit daytime mixing heights. Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected during the next several mornings. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible into the weekend with gusty winds up to 40-60 mph in thunderstorms. In addition, outflows from distant thunderstorms may also produce gusty and erratic winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 73 89 73 89 / 50 80 60 70 SSI 76 91 75 89 / 40 80 40 90 JAX 73 89 73 89 / 30 80 30 80 SGJ 74 88 74 89 / 30 70 30 60 GNV 72 85 72 86 / 60 80 60 70 OCF 73 85 73 88 / 60 80 50 70 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Monday evening for FLZ021-035-236-340-522. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ450-452-470-472. && $$ |
| #1274064 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 159 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Bay for this afternoon into tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly dry weather, slightly below average temperatures, and lower humidity to start the weekend. 2) A typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week, with near average temperatures and increasing shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 243 AM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry weather, slightly below average temperatures, and lower humidity today ahead of an unsettled period. Low pressure is slowly drifting off the Northeast coast, with a weak surface high across the local area this morning. Generally light southerly winds and temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s are being observed across the area. Satellite imagery is highlighting upper-level cirrus spreading across the East Coast that is emanating off of another low pressure system centered across Illinois. This trough will be one of the focal points for weather in the coming days, but dry conditions will continue today. Upper heights are forecast to build a bit as the ridge and aforementioned surface high nudge offshore and the low-level flow southerly flow begins to increase. Highs near 90F with afternoon dew points rising into the mid-upper 60s will make for a slightly more humid, warmer day than we have seen the past few days. KEY MESSAGE 2....A more typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week, with near average temperatures and increasing shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing through early next week. The pattern becomes more unsettled by Sunday will continue into early next week as a slow moving upper-level trough approaches from the west. At the same time, a weak cold front approaches from the north, but will remain north of the local area through Monday (and likely wash out by Tue). With the approaching trough and Bermuda high pressure well offshore, deep-layered S to SW flow will prevail. This will allow rich Gulf moisture to overspread the area on Sunday and remain over us early next week. PWs surge from a comfortable 1- 1.4" on Saturday to 2.2-2.4" by late Sunday/Sunday night. Scattered to potentially numerous showers/tstms are expected Sunday. The highest precip chances will initially be across south-central VA during the afternoon (as the deep moisture arrives here first). Showers and tstms should gradually spread NE through the evening (though it may very well remain dry near the immediate coast and on the eastern shore). Showers/tstms are likely across the entire area on Monday as a lead shortwave potentially tracks over the area. Monday appears to be the day with the highest convective coverage during the period. The trough dampens a bit from Tuesday/Wednesday, but scattered showers and tstms are still expected during the aftn/evening on both days as weak SW flow aloft continues and deep moisture remains nearby. Given the environment and relatively weak unidirectional flow aloft and tall/skinny CAPE, there will be a threat of localized flash flooding each day, but the severe threat should remain relatively low with these storms. Temperatures dip down slightly below average during the early week period thanks to the cloud cover and multiple rounds of rain. Though not quite as unsettled as the first half of the week, the latter half of the week will see isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. With the decreased coverage forecast, temperatures will return to near to slightly above normal with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Saturday... High pressure was centered well off the Southeast coast as of 18z, with a subtle trough over the Piedmont. VFR with a few showers/tstms in vicinity of the trough, but this activity should remain N/NW of RIC. The wind was S 8-12kt. Primarily VFR the remainder of the aftn through tonight, with a slight chc of showers near the coast late tonight/early Sunday morning. Patchy MVFR cigs are possible Sunday morning, with some IFR W of RIC. Otherwise, showers/tstms are likely Sunday aftn, which have the potential to produce brief IFR vsby in heavy rain. The wind will mainly be S/SSE 5-10kt tonight, and then S/SSW 8-12kt Sunday. Outlook: Shower/tstm chances continue Sunday night and Monday as a slow moving upper trough approaches the area, and linger into Tuesday through Thursday. Periodic sub-VFR conditions are possible during this time, mainly from early morning stratus, and brief vsby restrictions in heavy rain. && .MARINE... As of 140 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay from this afternoon into the early overnight hours. - Another period of SCA conditions is likely Sunday afternoon into Monday ahead of a weakening cold front. High pressure is now offshore as of this afternoon. Meanwhile, a sfc low has become nearly vertically stacked with the upper low over the lower midwest. Latest obs show southerly winds around 10kt with gusts to 15kt. Seas are around 2ft and waves in the bay/rivers are around 1ft. The stacked low will slowly move east over the next couple of days. Guidance suggests that the gradient between this low and high pressure offshore will tighten sufficiently to result in 15-20 kt SE winds over the Ches Bay later this afternoon through the evening hours. SCAs are in effect for the bay from 4pm to 1am to cover this. Winds in the tidal rivers, Currituck Sound, and offshore zones are expected to stay below SCA thresholds. Winds are expected to relax back into the 10-15 kt range after midnight. Waves and seas briefly build to 2-3 ft during the enhanced SE flow tonight. The surface low and its associated cold front will translate slowly eastward on Sunday, allowing the pressure gradient to steepen again. Additional SCA headlines are likely Sunday night into Monday for the majority of the local waters. Given a longer duration SW flow event, seas will have more time to build into the 3-6 ft range (0-20nm range, highest N). Farther offshore, seas increase to 5-7 ft for a period late Sunday into Monday. The front is forecast to wash out over inland areas late Monday into Tuesday. Afternoon and evening shower and storm chances return Sunday and linger well into next week with locally higher winds/waves/seas likely to accompany the stronger convection. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634. && $$ |
| #1274063 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 158 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Introduced a slight chance of showers/t-storms this afternoon though most will stay dry. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry Saturday with a mix of clouds and sun, but there remains a chance for some widely scattered showers or t-storms. - A cold front brings the return of heavy rain and gusty winds Sunday night and Monday, perhaps lingering into Tuesday. - Periodic rain chances will be with us for much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly dry Saturday with a mix of clouds and sun, but there remains a chance for some widely scattered showers or t- storms. A warmer airmass remains overhead thanks to brief mid level ridging. This will continue to deliver highs in the mid to upper 80s Saturday and Sunday. The ridge axis crosses SNE this morning then begins to break down slowly over the next 24-36 hours. For this reason, despite the surface high pressure nearby, introduced a slight chance of rain showers or a thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly over the interior. That being said, the forecast for a mostly dry day persists, with just some widely scattered showers or thunderstorms given a few 1000 J/kg of CAPE. Any convection that does fire up has the potential to induce a quick downpour given PWATs still over 1". For most locations we`ll see a mix of sun and diurnal low level clouds. High clouds will be thickening and lowering through the day ahead of the approaching system. KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front brings the return of heavy rain and gusty winds Sunday night and Monday, perhaps lingering into Tuesday. The mid level ridge continues to break down on Sunday as an anomolous mid-level low digs into the Ohio Valley inducing a deepening surface low which itself very slowly tracks northeast. This wave moves into New England by Monday, accompanied by and preceded by an anomalous subtropical moisture plume with PWATS over 2" (2+SD above normal). Isentropically forced rain arrives by late Sunday evening (west) or Sunday night (east) as warm advection takes hold. The heaviest rainfall rates likely occur on Monday as the cold front advances at the surface. This, combined with forcing for ascent from a 35-45kt LLJ and placement under the RRQ of a 120kt 300mb jet will lead to moderate to heavy rainfall across SNE. Still too soon to say where the heaviest amounts will be or how much, but ensemble guidance is not excited about potential for 2+ inches through Tuesday morning despite some deterministic guidance suggesting it. This will come into focus as we get into range of more high resolution guidance. The previously mentioned LLJ will bring gusty winds on Monday, especially over the Cape/islands and over the waters. KEY MESSAGE 3...Periodic rain chances will be with us for much of next week. Low confidence forecast when it comes to how much, if any, of a break we see in wet weather between the exiting shortwave Monday night/early Tuesday and the next. That being said, no sprawling or persistent high pressure ridge is in the cards so periodic rain chances likely persist. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18Z TAF Update: This Afternoon: High confidence. VFR. SW winds around 5-10 kt and sea breeze around 10 kts at BOS. Low chance for an isolated shower or weak storm through 00Z. Sea breeze kicks out of BOS 23-00Z returning to SSW flow. Tonight: Moderate confidence. VFR to start. Main challenge for tonight will be ceilings. There is potential for re-development of a stratus deck across the Cape/Islands potentially extending to the south coast closer to 03Z. This could bring a range of LIFR to IFR ceilings with FG possible for the Cape/Islands. There is considerable uncertainty in the northward extent of this stratus deck. There is a low end potential for this deck to extend northward close to BOS after 09Z. Low ceilings appear in TAFs with higher confidence for the stratus (Cape/Islands) while the other terminals have either FEW/SCT decks hinting at the lower cigs for now. Will have to re-assess for the 00Z TAF. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Sea breeze this afternoon around 10 kts. Kicks out 23-00Z to SSW flow less than 10 kts for remainder of night. SCT 4000-5000ft decks this afternoon with an isolated shower possible. If a shower were to develop it would more likely be west of the terminal. There is low probability for a stratus deck to extend north enough to bring lower MVFR/IFR ceilings to or near BOS 09-13Z. Confidence too low to include in TAF. Messaged as a FEW deck at this time. Will need to monitor for a stronger signal for 00Z TAF. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Potential for MVFR/IFR ceilings after 06Z through around 12Z with BR. Confidence lower in the extent/coverage of a low stratus deck. Outlook /Sunday through Thursday/... Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SHRA likely, slight chance TSRA, patchy BR. Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. SHRA, chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Winds and seas below small craft advisory levels through Sunday. Light SW tonight then pick up to around 10-15 kt this afternoon and to 15-20 kt tonight. Seas 3 ft or less through tonight, then increase to 3-4 ft. Outlook /Sunday through Thursday/... Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms, patchy fog. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Rain showers likely, slight chance of thunderstorms. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers likely, chance of thunderstorms. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1274062 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 141 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Bay for this afternoon into tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly dry weather, slightly below average temperatures, and lower humidity to start the weekend. 2) A typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week, with near average temperatures and increasing shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 243 AM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry weather, slightly below average temperatures, and lower humidity today ahead of an unsettled period. Low pressure is slowly drifting off the Northeast coast, with a weak surface high across the local area this morning. Generally light southerly winds and temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s are being observed across the area. Satellite imagery is highlighting upper-level cirrus spreading across the East Coast that is emanating off of another low pressure system centered across Illinois. This trough will be one of the focal points for weather in the coming days, but dry conditions will continue today. Upper heights are forecast to build a bit as the ridge and aforementioned surface high nudge offshore and the low-level flow southerly flow begins to increase. Highs near 90F with afternoon dew points rising into the mid-upper 60s will make for a slightly more humid, warmer day than we have seen the past few days. KEY MESSAGE 2....A more typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week, with near average temperatures and increasing shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing through early next week. The pattern becomes more unsettled by Sunday will continue into early next week as a slow moving upper-level trough approaches from the west. At the same time, a weak cold front approaches from the north, but will remain north of the local area through Monday (and likely wash out by Tue). With the approaching trough and Bermuda high pressure well offshore, deep-layered S to SW flow will prevail. This will allow rich Gulf moisture to overspread the area on Sunday and remain over us early next week. PWs surge from a comfortable 1- 1.4" on Saturday to 2.2-2.4" by late Sunday/Sunday night. Scattered to potentially numerous showers/tstms are expected Sunday. The highest precip chances will initially be across south-central VA during the afternoon (as the deep moisture arrives here first). Showers and tstms should gradually spread NE through the evening (though it may very well remain dry near the immediate coast and on the eastern shore). Showers/tstms are likely across the entire area on Monday as a lead shortwave potentially tracks over the area. Monday appears to be the day with the highest convective coverage during the period. The trough dampens a bit from Tuesday/Wednesday, but scattered showers and tstms are still expected during the aftn/evening on both days as weak SW flow aloft continues and deep moisture remains nearby. Given the environment and relatively weak unidirectional flow aloft and tall/skinny CAPE, there will be a threat of localized flash flooding each day, but the severe threat should remain relatively low with these storms. Temperatures dip down slightly below average during the early week period thanks to the cloud cover and multiple rounds of rain. Though not quite as unsettled as the first half of the week, the latter half of the week will see isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. With the decreased coverage forecast, temperatures will return to near to slightly above normal with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 633 AM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this morning. Light, generally SE-S winds of ~5 kts or less are being measured, with some upper cirrus moving across the area. The upper cirrus will remain across the area through this evening, with some FEW-SCT lower level clouds developing later this morning into the afternoon. SE-S winds will continue, but are forecast to increase to 6-12 kts. Outlook: VFR/dry Saturday night through Sunday morning as high pressure settles offshore. Shower/tstm chances return on Sunday and Monday as a slow moving upper trough approaches the area, and linger into Tuesday/Wednesday. Periodic sub-VFR conditions are possible during this time, mainly from early morning stratus, and brief vsby restrictions in heavy rain. && .MARINE... As of 140 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay from this afternoon into the early overnight hours. - Another period of SCA conditions is likely Sunday afternoon into Monday ahead of a weakening cold front. High pressure is now offshore as of this afternoon. Meanwhile, a sfc low has become nearly vertically stacked with the upper low over the lower midwest. Latest obs show southerly winds around 10kt with gusts to 15kt. Seas are around 2ft and waves in the bay/rivers are around 1ft. The stacked low will slowly move east over the next couple of days. Guidance suggests that the gradient between this low and high pressure offshore will tighten sufficiently to result in 15-20 kt SE winds over the Ches Bay later this afternoon through the evening hours. SCAs are in effect for the bay from 4pm to 1am to cover this. Winds in the tidal rivers, Currituck Sound, and offshore zones are expected to stay below SCA thresholds. Winds are expected to relax back into the 10-15 kt range after midnight. Waves and seas briefly build to 2-3 ft during the enhanced SE flow tonight. The surface low and its associated cold front will translate slowly eastward on Sunday, allowing the pressure gradient to steepen again. Additional SCA headlines are likely Sunday night into Monday for the majority of the local waters. Given a longer duration SW flow event, seas will have more time to build into the 3-6 ft range (0-20nm range, highest N). Farther offshore, seas increase to 5-7 ft for a period late Sunday into Monday. The front is forecast to wash out over inland areas late Monday into Tuesday. Afternoon and evening shower and storm chances return Sunday and linger well into next week with locally higher winds/waves/seas likely to accompany the stronger convection. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634. && $$ |
| #1274061 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1246 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1240 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast late tonight into Sunday, with the highest chances in coastal areas. A few storms could become strong Sunday morning, producing gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall. Anyone with outdoor plans Sunday morning should stay weather aware and have a plan for where to take shelter if thunderstorms affect their location. - Slightly drier air will move into the area to start next week, leading to temporary relief from the recent heat to start the week. During the second half of the week, moisture will return to the area, with heat index values possibly reaching hazardous levels again by Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Monday) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Weak "cold" front still looks to move into the area tonight before stalling near the coast or just offshore and dissipating tomorrow. As the boundary moves into the area, it will provide a focus for showers and storms, though convective coverage now looks to remain isolated to widely scattered for areas generally north of the I-10 corridor. As the front gets closer to the coast and interacts with deeper Gulf moisture, rain chances will be higher and result in greater convective coverage. For areas along/south of the I-10 corridor, will continue to advertise more scattered to numerous coverage with POPs in the 50-70% range. Timing-wise, the boundary should reach the I-10 corridor late tonight/early Sunday morning, sinking into the northern Gulf by midday. The setup doesn`t look overly concerning for severe weather - especially since the bulk of the showers and storms should be located over the Gulf by the time we reach peak daytime heating. However, there is still at least some potential for a few strong storms during the morning hours across coastal areas. The main threats from any strong thunderstorms will be gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall. Speaking of rainfall, overall totals even near the coast will generally be less than one half inch, and for areas north of the I-10 corridor, totals are forecast to be less than a tenth of an inch. The bottom line: despite the higher rain chances, this front will not provide significant rainfall to most of the area. As the front sinks into the northern Gulf, rain chances even in coastal areas will drop off and drier air will begin moving into the area. The drier air will remain in place to start the work week, which should keep afternoon heat index values near or even slightly below normal for this time of year - topping out in the upper 90s to just over 100 degrees Sunday/Monday afternoons. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 The drier air will remain in place across the area for a couple days, but low level winds will turn onshore again by midweek bringing deeper moisture back into the area. NBM appears to be a bit overdone with daily showers/storms during the midweek timeframe given forecast precipitable water values should remain close to the 25th percentile through at at least Wed, so barring any changes in the expected moisture availability, adjustments to the POP forecast midweek are likely with future updates as these time frames move into the short term forecast. Any showers and storms that do develop will generally be focused along sea/lake breeze boundaries. Going into the latter part of the work week, there is uncertainty regarding a slug of tropical moisture possibly moving westward through the northern Gulf. Currently the operational GFS is the most bullish with this moisture, indicating PW values on Friday of around 2.25 inches, which is around the 90th percentile for this time of year. Obviously that`s quite the ramp up compared to the previous day when PW values are forecast to be around or slightly below normal. Should note that the operational GFS is also significantly higher than its ensemble mean, which indicates near normal PW values by Friday. That being said, while it`s not out of the question, the operational GFS solution does appear overdone. On the other hand, the Euro ensemble mean indicates near to slightly below normal PW values persisting even into Friday. Assuming reality is somewhere in the vicinity of "near normal moisture," would expect to see typical afternoon showers and storms Friday. However, if the wetter solution pans out, then there is at least some potential for higher convective coverage than currently advertised. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Gusty conditions will persist through the remainder of the afternoon at most terminals before calming a bit around sunset. Outside of any showers and storms, VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Best rain chances will be associated with a weak front dropping into the area tonight. Chance of restrictions due to thunderstorms will be highest across southeastern terminals where PROB30 groups for MVFR conditions have been included and brief IFR conditions cannot be ruled out in heavier storms. Farther northwest, lighter showers are not currently expected to result in restrictions. && .MARINE... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Moderate west to southwesterly flow will persist today and will strengthen further tonight with winds forecast to reach the 20 to 25 knot range across most of the waters. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect tonight for all coastal waters except Lakes Pontchartrain, Maurepas, and Salvador and Cataouatche. A weak cold front will provide a focus for scattered to numerous showers and storms, mainly Sunday as it sinks through the coastal waters. As the front stalls over the northern Gulf and washes out the weaker pressure gradient will allow winds to relax again. By the second half of the workweek, winds will become more southeasterly as the local area becomes located more on the western periphery of the surface high. Seas will generally be 2 to 4 feet nearshore and 3 to 5 feet offshore through Sunday night, but will otherwise be generally 1 to 3 feet. Locally higher winds and seas will also be possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorms. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ532-534>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ534>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1274060 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 146 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Light and variable winds will persist through tonight. - A more active weather pattern develops by early next week with higher rain chances and increasing southeasterly winds. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 137 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 VFR conditions will be in place through the remainder of the day and tonight, though recent hi-res guidance has indicated some potential for isolated/scattered SHRA and occasional TSRA Sunday morning across the region. Overall forecast confidence in this scenario is not high at this time so this was not included in the latest TAF issuance, but small flight restrictions can`t be ruled out Sunday morning into the afternoon if this activity develops in close proximity to either of the Island Chain terminals. In addition, winds will remain light/VRB through this evening but winds will become more southeasterly overnight into Sunday with wind speeds around 5-10 kts. .DISCUSSION... Issued at 127 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Latest KBYX radar imagery detects light shower activity across the offshore Straits, which developed as a result of an outflow boundary that has originated from convection around Andros Island. A wider GOES-19 satellite perspective shows scattered to numerous convection across much of the Bahamas and SW Atlantic associated with an upper level trough axis as it departs into the Atlantic and its base pinches off into an upper low. In addition, there is also a narrow corridor of Saharan Dust across the Bahamas and central Cuba drifting to the northwest, which also aided in the development of this convective activity along its leading edge. High level convective debris associated with this activity around the Bahamas and SW Atlantic is streaming southwestward and at times will filter across the Florida Keys through the remainder of the day, which may have a role in limiting cloud line organization through the remainder of the day to at least some extent, but it depends on how much cirrus ultimately filters through. Regardless, a rising cu field will need to overcome limited moisture in the low levels and an approaching narrow region of Saharan dust, though dust concentrations will generally be decreasing throughout the remainder of the weekend. Other than needing to monitor the cloud line throughout the day and potential shower activity associated with its development, it should be a mostly dry day across the Florida Keys with favorable marine conditions yet again as winds are light and variable before southeasterlies start to increase tonight into the remainder of the weekend as the col region starts to fade. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 540 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Another night of shower-free KBYX radar. While the Atlantic surface ridge continues to dominate our weather not much has changed in the last 24 hours. Winds along the Reef are light and variable. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s. Today we can expect similar conditions to continue though off the Upper Keys there could be another slight freshening of breezes in the afternoon. Waterspout formation is possible again if a cloud line is able to develop from the light and variable winds. Early this week the mid level trough will still be in place over the southeast and in the Gulf waters though mid level ridging will attempt to push back in the region. Surface high in the western Atlantic will result in winds becoming more easterly to southeasterly and slightly freshening around Monday. Moisture will move into the area and rain chances will gradually increase this week though models are suggesting higher than what we have advertised. Easterly winds will continue through a majority of the week and rain chances will peak on Wednesday through Thursday. Thereafter, mostly sunny skies will return with near normal rain chances. && .MARINE... Issued at 540 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, weak nebulous flow with light to gentle breezes will continue as the western periphery of an Atlantic surface ridge slides westward across the Keys putting the coastal waters in a col region. As high pressure strengthens in the North Atlantic, southeast breezes will freshen by the second half of the weekend and into early next week. In addition, rain chances will also be increasing by next week as deeper moisture spreads into the region ahead of a frontal boundary approaching northern Florida. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274059 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 140 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 139 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - A Flood Watch is in effect for southern parts of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend this morning through Monday afternoon. Widespread rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with localized amounts up to 8 to 10 inches are possible through Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday Night) Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Showers and thunderstorms through the weekend will be the main focus for this term. An upper level trough will be extending southward with a cold front heading towards the SE U.S. bringing a high chance for rain and thunderstorms that could produce totals of several inches. The setup is conducive for the coastal regions to receive the most rainfall as we will have southwest flow bringing in moisture from the Gulf with the frontal boundary settling across the Tri-State region. Forecast PWATs will range from 2.2-2.5", indicating the potential for heavy rainfall. Fortunately, environmental factors are not showing an increased risk for any severe weather however, storms could still produce isolated damaging wind gusts. Guidance starts with showers and thunderstorms developing along the Emerald Coast this morning prior to daybreak. These storms may hug along the coastal region for several hours, leading to the potential of nuisance and/or flash flooding. As the day progresses, the showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous and spread eastwards and inland. The overall system, being pushed eastward by the front and upper-level trough will continue through Monday bringing several rounds of rain to the region. The WPC has highlighted much of the area in a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall for today (Saturday) and covers the Panhandle/Big Bend region through Sunday and hence a Flood Watch has been issued for the coastal communities of the FL Panhandle and Big Bend through Monday afternoon for the potential of receiving 3-6 inches of rain with locally higher amounts of up to 8-10 inches possible through Monday. More info is discussed in the Hydrology section. Temperatures for the Short term will be in the mid to upper 80s for the afternoon highs thanks to the abundant cloud cover and rain. Overnight lows will be in the low-mid 70s, and humid. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 For the start of the Long Term, the upper level trough will begin to lift and shift eastward, lowering our rain/thunderstorm chances as we head into mid-week. Temperatures will begin to climb back into the mid and upper 90s by the end of the term and overnight lows in the mid-70s with daily PoPs gradually decreasing to about 30-40% each afternoon; a more typical summertime pattern. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 139 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Fairly messy taf period with several rounds of convection possible. The ongoing round should continue to slowly push to the northeast/east through the rest of the afternoon and evening. A lull in activity is expected to start the night before another blossoming of convection early Sunday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected over the marine zones every day. Gusty winds and frequent lightning will accompany these storms. Outside of storms, westerly/southwesterly winds around Cautionary levels can be expected, with possible Advisory level winds beginning Saturday night into Sunday. Seas will be ranging around 3-5 feet for the weekend. For the start of the work week, winds and seas will begin to relax with seas returning to around 2 feet with winds later lessening to around 10-15 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Widespread wetting rains this weekend will keep fire weather concerns at a minimum. Transport winds will remain out of the west to southwest around 10-20 mph through this weekend, then lessening to 5-10 mph for the upcoming work week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 An upper level trough will be sinking southward over the next couple of days, bringing a cold front towards the SE U.S.. Showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front will be plentiful with the assistance of southwesterly flow from the Gulf, increasing PWATs to range from 2.2-2.5" across the region this weekend into the start of next week. Showers and thunderstorms will be most concentrated along the coastal regions in the FL Panhandle and Big Bend. 3-6 inches are forecast with locally higher amounts of up to 8-10 inches are possible through Monday. The WPC has highlighted the entire CWA in a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall for today (Saturday). On Sunday, the Slight risk is reduced to the Florida state line, with a Marginal (level 1 of 4) for our AL and GA counties. The system begins to move out of the area on Monday with the Big Bend region in a Marginal risk. The potential for flash flooding is is increased in these areas over the next few days, hence a Flood Watch is in effect from early this morning (5 AM EDT / 4 AM CDT) through Monday afternoon. Rivers are in good condition at the moment. However, a few coastal rivers may see rises depending on where the rain ultimately falls. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 74 86 73 89 / 30 90 70 80 Panama City 79 87 77 89 / 60 90 70 30 Dothan 75 89 72 91 / 50 70 50 20 Albany 73 88 73 90 / 50 90 40 50 Valdosta 73 88 72 90 / 30 80 70 80 Cross City 74 85 73 86 / 80 90 80 90 Apalachicola 78 85 77 87 / 50 90 80 80 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for FLZ012-014-015-027>029- 034-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-426. High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for FLZ112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274058 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 127 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 121 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Peak heat index values will range between 105 and 110 across most areas this afternoon. A Heat Advisory will be in effect from 11 AM through 6 PM for Broward and Miami Dade County. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorm will develop this afternoon with the highest chances occurring over the Lake region as well as the east coast metro areas. - High rainfall rates will be possible with the stronger storms creating the potential for localized flooding especially across the east coast metro areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A rather deep mid level trough/closed low complex over the Midwest will slowly dig towards the Deep South as today progresses. The mid level low will slowly try to open up heading into Sunday as it slowly pushes southeastward, however, deep troughing will still extend into the Southeast and into the northern Gulf during this time frame. As the main trough axis will remain off to the north of the region, a weak vort max will slowly pass through the Florida Panhandle today before moving across the rest of Northern Florida tonight into Sunday. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary will remain stalled out well off to the north over the Southeast today and this front will eventually wash out heading into tonight. Another frontal boundary will slowly push through the Southeast and towards the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday. South Florida will remain well to the south of the boundary, and therefore, synoptic surface winds will generally remain south to southwesterly both today and Sunday. While a pocket of drier air in the lower to mid levels of the atmospheric column, (between 850 and 550mb), will try to hold on through most of today, the latest forecast model soundings show that this layer will give way to deeper moisture advection especially heading into this afternoon through Sunday. With increasing moisture combined with south to southwesterly wind flow, the east coast sea breeze will remain pinned over the metro areas this afternoon and then again on Sunday. With a rather light steering flow in place, showers and thunderstorms will be relatively slow moving. This, combined with the abundance of moisture pushing into the region will result in the potential for localized flooding especially over the east coast metro areas for both this afternoon and Sunday afternoon as well. Some of the thunderstorm activity will have the potential to become strong and contain gusty winds each afternoon especially over the Lake Region and portions of the east coast metro areas where instability will be maximized during peak diurnal heating. Heat will be a concern throughout the weekend as high temperatures rise into the lower to mid 90s across a good portion of South Florida. Peak heat index values will generally range between 105 and 110 across most of the region this afternoon and then once again on Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 The beginning of the week will feature the rather deep mid level trough still remaining over the Southeast as well as the northern Gulf on Monday. However, the latest global and ensemble guidance suite does show mid level ridging in the western Atlantic trying to push back over the region starting later on Monday and then even more so heading into Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, what is left of the second frontal boundary stalled out over Northern Florida as well as the Northern Gulf on Monday will gradually wash out heading into Tuesday. The western periphery of surface high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will then gradually shift back over the Florida Peninsula for Tuesday and Wednesday. This will create a wind shift allowing for winds to become south southeasterly as Monday progresses, and then slowly becoming easterly moving towards the middle of the week. With the influx of moisture continuing especially through monday, combined with the light south to southwest steering flow in place, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop as the sea breezes push inland. The east coast sea breeze will still remain relatively pinned for one more day on Monday, allowing for the highest chances of convection to remain over the interior as well as the east coast metro areas. With PWAT values generally looking to remain at 2.0 inches or higher during this time frame, heavy downpours and slow moving thunderstorms could continue the potential for localized flooding on Monday. While Tuesday and Wednesday will feature additional shower and thunderstorm development, the highest chances will shift and remain over the interior and southwest Florida each afternoon and evening during this time frame. High temperatures each day through the middle of the week will continue to rise into the lower 90s across most of South Florida. Peak heat index values will still create a heat concern during this time frame as they will range between 105 and 110 each afternoon. Easterly winds remain firmly in place heading into the second half of the week, however, uncertainty rises in the forecast during this time frame as some of the global and ensemble guidance is hinting at the potential for another weak TUTT to make a close pass near the region. This could increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame and it will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. With easterly wind flow remaining in place, the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame will continue to be focused over the interior as well as Southwest Florida. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 121 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Winds shift to the SSE this afternoon along the east coast as the sea breeze attempts to move inland. Winds will be around 10-12 kts with chances to gust up to 25-30 kts due to expected SHRA/TS coverage increasing after 18-19Z. Scattered SHRA and TSRA could impact terminals directly this afternoon through the evening, resulting in TEMPOs for MVFR/IFR conditions. Activity should clear up this evening after 01-02Z for the overnight hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A gentle to moderate south to southwesterly wind flow will continue across most of the local waters through the weekend. These winds will gradually shift and become more southeasterly as the early portion of next week progresses. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the weekend and into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 92 80 92 / 30 40 10 70 West Kendall 76 92 77 92 / 20 40 10 60 Opa-Locka 79 93 80 93 / 30 40 20 70 Homestead 79 92 80 92 / 20 40 10 50 Fort Lauderdale 79 91 80 91 / 30 40 20 70 N Ft Lauderdale 80 91 80 91 / 30 50 20 70 Pembroke Pines 80 92 81 92 / 30 40 20 70 West Palm Beach 77 92 78 92 / 30 60 30 70 Boca Raton 79 91 79 91 / 30 50 30 70 Naples 79 91 79 91 / 20 40 20 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ071>074-172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274057 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:39 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1225 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1219 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - A few storms may produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground lightning. - A High Risk of rip currents is expected through the weekend for all area beaches. - Moderate to strong winds over the marine area may create hazardous conditions for small craft through Sunday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 638 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Have updated to expand low end rain chances this morning to include more of interior areas based on current radar loop. Made other minor adjustments. /29 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A strong shortwave will move into the Ohio Valley today helping a carve out a trough over the eastern states. This will send a cold front southward toward the area late today into tonight. The front will likely stall along the I-65 corridor on Sunday afternoon before being pushed east on Monday. As the trough and front move into the area, the deeper moisture will be pushed eastward today with some drier air slowly moving into northwest area. As a result, the highest rain chances will be mainly east of I-65. As the front moves in overnight into Sunday, scattered pops are expected across the entire area before moving east of I-65 during the late afternoon. A few storms could produce gusty winds and small hail. however the main threat will be locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. A drier airmass moves across the entire area Monday into Tuesday with upper level ridging builds back into the area, resulting in mostly dry conditions through midweek. Moisture levels return late in the week with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. /13 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 General VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms developing over eastern-most portions of the forecast area can bring local drops in conditions to low end MVFR. More convection developing late tonight closer to the coast and lasting into Sunday morning will again bring local drops to low/mid MVFR levels. Winds are expected to be generally westerly this afternoon though tonight, with a shift to northwesterly beginning late Sunday morning as a cold front begins to move over the forecast area. /16 && .MARINE... Issued at 235 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Moderate westerly winds become a moderate to occasionally strong southwesterly flow for tonight through Sunday before diminishing Sunday night. Small craft should exercise caution mainly over the open Gulf waters today. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory from 7 pm this evening until 10 am Sunday for the open Gulf waters, which may need to be extended into early Sunday evening if the southwesterly flow maintains a strength near 20 knots. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 93 76 91 71 / 10 50 40 20 Pensacola 91 79 89 73 / 10 60 80 40 Destin 89 80 87 75 / 50 60 90 50 Evergreen 92 73 91 71 / 20 40 40 20 Waynesboro 95 72 92 70 / 10 70 0 0 Camden 92 72 89 71 / 20 70 10 0 Crestview 91 75 89 73 / 40 60 70 40 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$ |
| #1274056 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:39 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 124 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 152 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Additional rounds of showers and storms are forecast through the weekend. Storms may form earlier in the day than usual. Frequent lightning and gusty winds to 40-50 mph will be the primary hazards. - Later today, there is a 5-10% chance of rainfall exceeding 3 inches in less than 2 hours. This may lead to localized flooding of urban and poorly drained areas. - High pressure expands over Florida early next week. However, continued high moisture and sea breeze interactions should keep storm chances elevated, especially over the interior and Lake Okeechobee region. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 152 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 -----------Synoptic Overview----------- Early this morning, water vapor imagery reveals a rather complex upper-air pattern across the U.S. for the first day of August. A pair of shortwaves is keeping a broad dip in the jet stream over the Eastern U.S. The stronger of these two features is currently located near the Quad Cities. Exceptionally stout ridging extends from the Caribbean to the Desert Southwest, where 01/00Z RAOBs returned H5 heights of 601 dam at Flagstaff, AZ and 600 dam at El Paso, TX. Locally, H5 heights exceed 590 dam; warm mid-level temperatures are resulting in poor H7-H5 lapse rates, which is rather typical for the time of year. The energy approaching the Mississippi Valley will soon carve out a longwave trough; it will then move little through Sunday. A weak quasi-stationary front should remain well north of Central Florida. Mean southwesterly flow in the boundary layer maintains rich moisture over the state with PWAT values from 100-130% of normal through at least Monday. Amid subtle height falls, weak vorticity maxima are forecast to rotate around the trough west of Florida, providing forcing for occasional convection. By Monday, the Bermuda High will attempt to retrograde over the W Atlantic, promoting height rises over Florida. As ensemble members weaken the trough over the Tennessee Valley by Tuesday, the near-surface ridge axis is likely to trek north of our latitude by midweek, providing light onshore flow off the Atlantic. Confidence trails off late in the work week and toward next weekend. The 31/12Z grand ensemble and fellow AI members initialized an easterly wave over the Canary Islands. The model suite sends this disturbance westward across the Atlantic, perhaps approaching Florida by late Thursday or Friday. PWAT anomalies clearly show an increase in moisture associated with this feature, but we expect further refinements to the forecast as this disturbance is currently 3800 miles to our east. -------Sensible Weather & Impacts------- This Weekend... Periods of active weather should be expected. Those planning to be outdoors will need to listen for thunder, watch for darkening skies, and find safe shelter when storms threaten! Nocturnal showers and storms extending along the FL Panhandle early this morning suggest a weak disturbance is present. If this is the case, an earlier-than-normal start to showers and storms is on the table for today, perhaps as early as late morning/midday near and northwest of Interstate 4. Relatively weak offshore winds may allow a sea breeze to form and hug the coast. Boundary interactions would support numerous storms near and east of I-95 in the afternoon. Wind gusts to 40-45 mph and frequent lightning will be the primary hazards. There is a 5-10% chance of rainfall totals exceeding 3", especially along the coast. Localized urban flooding is possible where this rainfall occurs over poorly drained areas. Boundary-layer flow increases from Saturday night into Sunday. Additional weak energy approaching N FL is likely to spark overnight showers and storms northwest of our area, and some of this may reach Lake County overnight. This portends another early start to shower and storm chances on Sunday, especially over our northern half. Then, daytime heating will provide an additional spark for storm development over the eastern half of the peninsula. While shear is weak, the enhanced mid-level flow (20-25 kts) will be sufficient for a few stronger storms with wind gusts from 50 to 55 mph. There is a very small chance for a severe gust to around 60 mph. Hot and muggy conditions continue, with highs in the low/mid 90s and heat indices from 100 to 107. Of the two days, today looks slightly hotter. Monday - Tuesday... This still appears to be a transition period for local weather conditions. High pressure will begin to push overhead, weakening background flow just a bit. As that occurs, the sea breeze will begin to move inland each afternoon, with better progression especially by Tuesday. Near- to above-normal moisture values will continue to support scattered to numerous showers and storms (50% to 80%) each day. Seasonably hot temperatures will persist as well, outside of the storms. Wednesday - next Saturday... On Wednesday and Thursday, light onshore flow should finally return, giving us more typical summertime conditions. As the sea breeze pushes inland, a few storms may try to form closer to the coast before concentrating over the interior and points westward. By Friday and Saturday, the easterly wave mentioned in the overview may reach the state. Should this happen, it would provide increased moisture and an uptick in shower/storm opportunities late in the week. While a few deterministic runs have recently shown tropical development with this feature, the GEFS and EPS ensembles are generally unimpressed and favor an open wave/trough as it passes into the W Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center is not expecting tropical cyclone formation over the next 7 days. Continued hot and muggy with highs near normal in the low/mid 90s. && .MARINE... Issued at 152 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 High pressure remains situated south of the local Atlantic this weekend. A nearly-stationary front will stay to the north. Weak to moderate offshore flow persists, but as the sea breeze attempts to form, winds may turn southeasterly in the afternoon near the coast, especially south of Cape Canaveral. Scattered to numerous offshore-moving storms remain the primary hazard for boaters this weekend. Winds freshen some on Sunday, especially in the Gulf Stream. Next week, high pressure will lift slowly northward, with onshore breezes returning by midweek. SW to S winds up to 12 kt today, increasing to 12-18 kt on Sunday. Winds slowly turn out of the SE early next week, up to 12 kt. Seas of 1-2 ft nearshore, except locally 3 ft off of Volusia County on Sunday. Seas reach 3-4 ft in the Gulf Stream north of Cape Canaveral on Sunday and early Monday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 123 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Another early initiation of convection as anticipated north of I-4. This trend will continue to expand toward the coast and southward thru the afternoon. SCT-NMRS coverage expected. The ECSB should develop, but inland movement will be stymied by the westerly flow. This feature will collide with convection moving in from the west which should create a few strong pulse storms at the coast. "Vicinity" & "TEMPO" wording in most TAFs for this aftn/early eve. Should see gusty winds again with many storms. Activity winds down this evening, but may need to monitor for convection north/west of I- 4 later tonight. For Sun, rinse/repeat once again with early initiation and high coverage of showers and storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 87 74 90 / 30 60 20 60 MCO 75 88 75 90 / 20 60 20 60 MLB 75 88 75 89 / 30 60 20 60 VRB 74 89 75 90 / 30 60 20 60 LEE 75 86 75 89 / 40 60 30 60 SFB 76 88 75 90 / 30 60 20 60 ORL 76 88 75 90 / 30 60 20 60 FPR 74 89 74 90 / 30 60 20 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1274055 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:24 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1220 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1028 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 - Hot conditions will persist through next week; Saturday through Monday will be the hottest period; SPSs to Heat Advisories will likely be needed. - High temperatures will generally range between the upper 90s to mid 100s with peak heat indices between 105-115F degrees through next week. - Widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) to Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk with pockets of Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk can be expected through next week. - Breezy southeasterly winds will persist nearly each day through next week with speeds generally between 10-25 mph and peak gusts up to 35 mph. - Mostly Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions over the Laguna Madre will persist nearly each day through next week. - Borderline Fire Danger Statement (RFD) conditions can be expected at times through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1028 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected to continue through the middle parts of next week. Driving our weather pattern will be a strong 591-594 dam sub-tropical heat ridge centered over the Desert Southwest. Additionally, an enhanced pressure and thermal gradient will result in breezy southeast winds nearly each day with speeds generally ranging between 15-25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph. Special Weather Statements (SPSs) to Heat Advisories may be needed each day going forward (especially Thursday through Sunday) as daytime high temperatures will range between the upper 90s to mid 100s with peak heat indices ranging generally between 105- 115F degrees. Heat Risk concerns will continue through the middle parts of next week. Widespread Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk with pockets of Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk can be expected. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the TAF cycle. Hot temperatures in the triple digits with gusty south-southeasterly winds will continue through the afternoon and evening. Winds diminish overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1028 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Generally favorable marine conditions will persist through the forecast period with mainly moderate winds and low to moderate seas. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions will likely be needed each day over the Laguna Madre due to persistently breezy southeast winds from an enhanced pressure gradient. There could be brief periods where winds reach low end Small Craft Advisory. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 99 79 99 / 0 10 0 0 HARLINGEN 77 102 76 103 / 0 10 0 0 MCALLEN 81 105 80 105 / 0 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 79 104 79 105 / 0 10 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 89 80 89 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 97 78 98 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ251. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274051 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:54 PM 01.Aug.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1248 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight risk for heavy rain and flooding across much of the Nature Coast through Sunday. Marginal risk for the remainder of West Central and Southwest Florida. - Flood Watch now in effect for Levy, Citrus, and Hernando counties through 8 PM Monday. - High risk of dangerous rip currents at area beaches through the weekend. && .REST OF TODAY... Large convective complex in the NE Gulf produced heavy rainfall this morning in coastal areas of the Northern Nature Coast with some localized flooding concerns. This activity is weakening with large stratiform rain shield but another upper vort max is rotating over that area with a few storms redeveloping 100 miles W of Cedar Key heading Eward. Will keep high PoPs over the Nature Coast as most of the previous activity slowly rains itself out, then additional storms move towards that area before eventually stabilizes conditions this evening. C and SW FL zones remain under SW flow regime with E Gulf and coastal scattered morning showers and few storms that continue to move inland with decreasing activity expected at the coast thru the afternoon. Flood watch continues with several rounds of heavy rainfall expected across much of the Nature Coast through Sunday. Persistent SW-W flow over the E Gulf continues to produce choppy 1-3 ft breaking waves along area beaches with a high risk of dangerous rip currents through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Previous discussion remains accurate. PCPW values will be climbing back AOA 2.25 inches for the weekend and into Monday. An anomalously sharp U/L trough will dig over the eastern U.S. during the next couple of days with an associated frontal boundary pushing across the southeast U.S. and stalling over the Florida panhandle on Sunday. Deep southwest flow ahead of the front will persist over west central and southwest Florida for the next several days. The best U/L support and large scale lift will occur over the northeast Gulf and nature coast this afternoon through Monday...but the best dynamics looks to be in place late Saturday night and Sunday. The overall bulk of the shower/thunderstorm activity will be north of the Tampa Bay area, however, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will still occur across the entire forecast area each day. WPC has indicated that there is a slight risk for excessive rainfall for portions of the nature coast today and Sunday. This is very much supported by the dynamics/deep tropical moisture over the area and expected rounds of showers/thunderstorms with locally heavy rain through Monday. For this reason, a flood watch has been issued for Levy, Citrus, and Hernando counties from noon today through Monday evening. Heaviest rainfall totals will likely occur near the coast, with locally 2 to 4 inches of rain possible each day with isolated higher amounts. The potential exists for rainfall totals today through Monday of 4 to 8 inches across the watch area, with locally higher amounts. Highest pops each day will be across the north with lower pops south...however as mentioned previously, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across all of west central and southwest Florida each day through Monday with localized flooding of urban and low lying poor drainage areas possible each day. The U/L trough will begin to lift away from the forecast area early next week, with surface high pressure over the western Atlantic building across the Florida peninsula. Tuesday will be a transition day as the boundary layer flow becomes re-established from the east to southeast by mid week. This will shift the timing of daily showers/storms to the mid/late afternoon and evening with the highest pops along the coastal counties as the west coast sea breeze boundary fails to progress very far inland each day...before being pushed back to the coast and offshore during the late afternoon/evening hours. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) ISOLD SHRA/TSRA moving over coastal counties with impacts at terminals thru 20Z with brief LCL MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs as activity moves further inland. VFR conditions outside of convection with SW-W flow this afternoon and tonight before another round of SHRA/TSRA Sunday. && .MARINE... Several weak fronts in the Deep South will keep the persistent SW-W flow over the E Gulf waters through the weekend and into early next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing over the waters during the overnight hours and pushing onshore around and shortly after sunrise into mid morning each day. Periods of widespread showers/storms will likely occur over the northern waters through Monday. Cautionary level winds will occur on portions of the waters for the next several days. && .FIRE WEATHER... Abundant moisture and high rain chances will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels for the next several days. Frequent lightning, gusty winds and heavy rainfall may accompany the stronger storms as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 86 78 87 / 80 80 40 50 FMY 77 89 77 90 / 30 30 20 40 GIF 76 87 75 89 / 40 70 30 70 SRQ 77 88 77 89 / 60 70 40 50 BKV 73 86 73 88 / 80 80 40 50 SPG 79 86 79 87 / 80 80 50 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Flood Watch through Monday evening for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Levy. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1274049 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:33 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1128 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Light and variable winds will persist through this afternoon. - A more active weather pattern develops by early next week with higher rain chances and increasing southeasterly winds. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1118 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Latest KBYX radar imagery detects light shower activity across the offshore Straits, which developed as a result of an outflow boundary that has originated from convection around Andros Island. A wider GOES-19 satellite perspective shows scattered to numerous convection across much of the Bahamas and SW Atlantic associated with an upper level trough axis as it departs into the Atlantic and its base pinches off into an upper low. In addition, there is also a narrow corridor of Saharan Dust across the Bahamas and central Cuba drifting to the northwest, which also aided in the development of this convective activity along its leading edge. High level convective debris associated with this activity around the Bahamas and SW Atlantic is streaming southwestward and at times will filter across the Florida Keys through the remainder of the day, which may have a role in limiting cloud line organization through the remainder of the day to at least some extent, but it depends on how much cirrus ultimately filters through. Regardless, a rising cu field will need to overcome limited moisture in the low levels and an approaching narrow region of Saharan dust, though dust concentrations will generally be decreasing throughout the remainder of the weekend. Other than needing to monitor the cloud line throughout the day and potential shower activity associated with its development, it should be a mostly dry day across the Florida Keys with favorable marine conditions yet again as winds are light and variable before southeasterlies start to increase tonight into the remainder of the weekend as the col region starts to fade. && .MARINE... Issued at 540 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, weak nebulous flow with light to gentle breezes will continue as the western periphery of an Atlantic surface ridge slides westward across the Keys putting the coastal waters in a col region. As high pressure strengthens in the North Atlantic, southeast breezes will freshen by the second half of the weekend and into early next week. In addition, rain chances will also be increasing by next week as deeper moisture spreads into the region ahead of a frontal boundary approaching northern Florida. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1119 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period with light/VRB winds through this evening. The winds will start to become southeasterly area-wide by tonight and continue into Sunday with wind speeds around 5-10 kts. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274048 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:18 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1012 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight risk for heavy rain and flooding across much of the nature coast today through Sunday. Marginal risk for the remainder of west central and southwest Florida. - Flood Watch in effect for Levy, Citrus, and Hernando counties from noon today through 8 PM Monday. - High risk of dangerous rip currents at area beaches through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA developing over the E Gulf coastal waters are moving ashore with impacts at terminals with brief LCL MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs through the early afternoon hours before moving inland. VFR conditions outside of convection with SW-W flow today then clearing tonight before another round of SHRA/TSRA Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Although some drier mid level air advected over the region during the past 12 to 18 hours, that is quickly eroding and PCPW values will be climbing back AOA 2.25 inches for the weekend and into Monday. An anomalously sharp U/L trough will dig over the eastern U.S. during the next couple of days with an associated frontal boundary pushing across the southeast U.S. and stalling over the Florida panhandle on Sunday. Deep southwest flow ahead of the front will persist over west central and southwest Florida for the next several days. The best U/L support and large scale lift will occur over the northeast Gulf and nature coast this afternoon through Monday...but the best dynamics looks to be in place late Saturday night and Sunday. The overall bulk of the shower/thunderstorm activity will be north of the Tampa Bay area, however, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will still occur across the entire forecast area each day. WPC has indicated that there is a slight risk for excessive rainfall for portions of the nature coast today and Sunday. This is very much supported by the dynamics/deep tropical moisture over the area and expected rounds of showers/thunderstorms with locally heavy rain through Monday. For this reason, a flood watch has been issued for Levy, Citrus, and Hernando counties from noon today through Monday evening. Heaviest rainfall totals will likely occur near the coast, with locally 2 to 4 inches of rain possible each day with isolated higher amounts. The potential exists for rainfall totals today through Monday of 4 to 8 inches across the watch area, with locally higher amounts. Highest pops each day will be across the north with lower pops south...however as mentioned previously, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across all of west central and southwest Florida each day through Monday with localized flooding of urban and low lying poor drainage areas possible each day. The U/L trough will begin to lift away from the forecast area early next week, with surface high pressure over the western Atlantic building across the Florida peninsula. Tuesday will be a transition day as the boundary layer flow becomes re-established from the east to southeast by mid week. This will shift the timing of daily showers/storms to the mid/late afternoon and evening with the highest pops along the coastal counties as the west coast sea breeze boundary fails to progress very far inland each day...before being pushed back to the coast and offshore during the late afternoon/evening hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 West to southwest flow will persist through the weekend and into early next week with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing over the waters during the overnight hours and pushing onshore around and shortly after sunrise each day. Periods of widespread showers/storms will likely occur over the northern waters through Monday. Cautionary level winds will occur on portions of the waters for the next several days. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels for the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 88 79 86 79 / 60 60 70 40 FMY 91 78 90 77 / 50 30 40 30 GIF 91 75 88 75 / 60 40 60 30 SRQ 90 77 88 77 / 50 50 60 30 BKV 88 74 85 73 / 70 70 70 50 SPG 88 79 86 80 / 60 60 70 40 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Flood Watch through Monday evening for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Levy. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1274047 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:00 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 950 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Flood Watch through Monday Evening for locations west of I-75 - Numerous TStorms this Weekend through Early Next Week. Strong Storm Potential Each Afternoon and Evening. Daily Rounds of Heavy Downpours May Cause Localized Flooding - Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches on Sunday && .UPDATE... A Flood Watch was issued with the update this morning. The Flood Watch is in effect through Monday Evening for locations west of the I-75 corridor. Southwesterly flow will continue through the weekend, bringing tropical moisture into the area. Waves of numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through the weekend, with rainfall totals between 1 and 3 inches, possibly higher amounts in localized spots, for those locations within the Flood Watch. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights For Tonight: - Rounds of Showers and Thunderstorms, Isolated Strong Storms Possible - Locally Heavy rainfall and flooding Possible, mainly for I-75 corridor The weak frontal boundary currently just north of the Altamaha river will gradually lift northward today as a warm front ahead of a stronger cold front moving into the SE US. WSW flow strengthens this morning advecting in a more tropical airmass with PWATs of 2+ inches. This will ignite nocturnal convection over Apalachee Bay and the NE Gulf which will shift onshore during the predawn hours potentially progressing into the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor by sunrise. Convection then increases through the day and spreads ENE across NE FL and SE GA later this afternoon into evening. A cluster of upper level disturbances move in from the NW this afternoon and linger over the area tonight allowing for activity to continue well into the night and potentially into Sunday morning. With anomalously high PWATs, ample instability and support from the approaching upper impulses, numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could produce localized flash flooding with a few thunderstorms producing gusty winds of 40-55 mph. WPC has highlighted the I-75 corridor in a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall and a Marginal (level 1 of 4) for the rest of the area for today. Highs will be slightly lower than yesterday in the upper 80s along the I-75 corridor to the low 90s elsewhere. Overnight lows remain in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Rounds of Showers and Thunderstorms, Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible - Locally Heavy rainfall potential into Monday Sunday, the trough will move towards the southern Appalachians into Sunday night, becoming elongated north to south as Atlantic ridge begins to build westward towards the Atlantic waters off the southeast US coast. This will slow the surface front across the deep south just northwest of our area. The squeeze between the two mid to upper level features will yield increasing low level SW flow and tap higher moisture levels into the area with PWATs surging to near daily records of 2.20-2.40 inches. The high moisture, lift and instability ahead of the front will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms focused over the western half of inland NE FL shifting north and eastward into SE GA and the coast through the afternoon hours. Isolated strong to severe storms will develop where storm outflows and cell mergers interact. Widespread totals Sunday of 1 to 3 inches of rain will fall west of I-75 with less rainfall towards the coast, but locally heavier rainfall amounts will be possible with any slow moving or training cells (successive storms moving over the same area) which could lead to flooding in low lying and urban locations. The Weather Prediction Center has a slight risk over the Suwannee Valley of NE FL and a Marginal risk to the the rest of NE FL and SE GA. Breezy SW winds 10-15 mph will prevail Sunday with gusts to 20- 25 mph ahead of storms while more intense storms could produce gusts 40-60 mph. Sunday`s highs will be below normal due to mostly cloudy skies showers and storms, only reaching the mid to upper 80s inland to near 90 at the coast and I-95. Lows will be in the lower 70s inland and the mid 70s along the coast. Monday, the shortwave trough to the north will begin to become a closed, cut off trough across the southern Appalachian mountains While Atlantic high pressure ridging aloft builds into the Bahamas. Breezy south to southwest winds will once again prevail 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph. Shortwave energy from the trough and convergence along the Gulf and Atlantic seabreezes will lead to numerous to widespread thunderstorms in the afternoon. Isolated strong to severe storms Highs will be similar Monday in the upper 80s for NE FL and near 90 across SE GA and the coast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Decreasing Coverage of Thunderstorms by Midweek Tuesday, the closed mid to upper level trough will slowly lift away to the NNE as Atlantic ridging moves across the south and central FL peninsula. This will create a more typical Seabreeze regime of afternoon thunderstorms from Seabreeze interactions with scattered to numerous storms. The SW flow will decrease with Seabreezes merging near US-17 in the afternoon with southeast winds behind the Atlantic seabreeze. Wednesday into Thursday, Atlantic high pressure surface ridge axis will lift into SE GA with flow prevailing from the southeast and favoring a more inland progressing Atlantic seabreeze with scattered afternoon thunderstorms with Gulf/Atlantic seabreezes merging between highway 301 and I-75. Friday, the ridge axis will lift north of the area with easterly flow prevailing across the region and scattered T`storms developing well inland near I-75 Temperatures will begin with highs a little below normal Monday and near normal Tuesday, then inland highs will be above normal Wednesday into Friday with near normal coastal highs in the upper 80s to low 80s due to the onshore southeast to easterly flow. Lows will remain near normal with lows trending above normal in the low 70s inland and mid 70s at the coast with coastal lows warming to the upper 70s by Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Light generally southwesterly winds continue this morning hours, increasing around 10 kts by 18Z outside of SHRA and TSRA. Southerly winds develop at the coastal TAF sites after 16Z with the pinned Atlantic sea breeze. Waves of showers and storms will continue to move in from the west-southwest near GNV spreading to the rest of the TAF sites between 17-23Z. Have TEMPOs for stronger storms capable of gusty winds and lower VSBYs due to heavy rainfall. && .MARINE... A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary over the Georgia waters today, while high pressure remains situated over the southeastern Gulf. This weather pattern will create a prevailing offshore wind flow, with the afternoon sea breeze shifting winds to southerly in the afternoon and then back to southwesterly overnight. Coverage of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will increase this weekend and early next week as the frontal boundary over the Georgia waters lifts northward as a warm front ahead of another cold front that will be entering the southeastern states. Southwesterly winds will strengthen ahead of this front beginning Sunday morning, with Caution level wind speeds likely and periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions possible through early Monday. Strong storms will be possible each afternoon and evening through Tuesday. Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds this weekend through Monday will likely yield a low to low-end moderate risk at area beaches. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible This Weekend An active pattern will persists today the frontal boundary remains nearly stationary across Southeast Georgia. Southwesterly winds will become breezy 10-15 mph gusting to 20 mph across NE FL with winds a bit less over SE GA 8-12 mph, becoming southeasterly at the coast behind the afternoon Atlantic seabreeze 10-15 mph gusting to 20 mph. A wave of energy aloft and lift along the front and seabreezes will create Numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. The front will lift away as another front approaches from the northwest Sunday and then stall Monday just northwest of the area with numerous to widespread afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day and breezy southwest winds. Locally heavy rainfall is possible this weekend into early next week with widespread rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches west of I-75 and 1-2 inches towards the coast with locally heavier totals possible. Dispersions will be in the good range through the weekend as surface and transport winds increase slightly by Sunday while clouds increase and limit mixing heights. Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected during the next several mornings. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible into the weekend with gusty winds up to 40-60 mph in thunderstorms. In addition, outflows from distant thunderstorms may also produce gusty and erratic winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 92 73 89 73 / 90 50 80 60 SSI 91 76 91 75 / 90 40 80 40 JAX 92 73 89 73 / 60 30 80 30 SGJ 91 74 88 74 / 80 30 70 30 GNV 90 72 85 72 / 80 60 80 60 OCF 90 73 85 73 / 80 60 80 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Monday evening for FLZ021-035-236-340-522. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ450-452-470-472. && $$ |
| #1274046 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:33 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 923 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 915 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - A Flood Watch is in effect for southern parts of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend this morning through Monday afternoon. Widespread rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with localized amounts up to 8 to 10 inches are possible through Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 915 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms continue this morning along the Panhandle and Big Bend coasts. There`s been some heavy rain at times, but most of the storms have been progressive enough to mitigate the flood risk for now. However, for Dixie County, there has been a rather persistent band beginning to take shape from southwest of Cross City into Apalachee Bay south of St. George Island, and this has been moving generally eastward. We`ll have to watch this area closely if it continues to train this morning into the afternoon. Another thing we`ve noticed this morning is that there`s just enough low to mid-level flow today that some of these storms have tapped into to produce gusty winds in rather innocuous looking storms, mainly near the coast. And we`ll likely maintain some threat of gusty winds in storms through the afternoon, but the severe threat is rather low. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday Night) Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Showers and thunderstorms through the weekend will be the main focus for this term. An upper level trough will be extending southward with a cold front heading towards the SE U.S. bringing a high chance for rain and thunderstorms that could produce totals of several inches. The setup is conducive for the coastal regions to receive the most rainfall as we will have southwest flow bringing in moisture from the Gulf with the frontal boundary settling across the Tri-State region. Forecast PWATs will range from 2.2-2.5", indicating the potential for heavy rainfall. Fortunately, environmental factors are not showing an increased risk for any severe weather however, storms could still produce isolated damaging wind gusts. Guidance starts with showers and thunderstorms developing along the Emerald Coast this morning prior to daybreak. These storms may hug along the coastal region for several hours, leading to the potential of nuisance and/or flash flooding. As the day progresses, the showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous and spread eastwards and inland. The overall system, being pushed eastward by the front and upper-level trough will continue through Monday bringing several rounds of rain to the region. The WPC has highlighted much of the area in a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall for today (Saturday) and covers the Panhandle/Big Bend region through Sunday and hence a Flood Watch has been issued for the coastal communities of the FL Panhandle and Big Bend through Monday afternoon for the potential of receiving 3-6 inches of rain with locally higher amounts of up to 8-10 inches possible through Monday. More info is discussed in the Hydrology section. Temperatures for the Short term will be in the mid to upper 80s for the afternoon highs thanks to the abundant cloud cover and rain. Overnight lows will be in the low-mid 70s, and humid. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 For the start of the Long Term, the upper level trough will begin to lift and shift eastward, lowering our rain/thunderstorm chances as we head into mid-week. Temperatures will begin to climb back into the mid and upper 90s by the end of the term and overnight lows in the mid-70s with daily PoPs gradually decreasing to about 30-40% each afternoon; a more typical summertime pattern. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Models have trended to more MVFR cigs today and especially with the rainfall today into this evening. Speaking of rain, showers and storms will develop and increase in coverage this morning as a shortwave trough moves into the area. Much of the day will be off and on convection with probabilities 70-90% beginning a little later this morning. Heading into this evening convection coverage should decrease till the overnight hours. MVFR/IFR cigs will redevelop affecting DHN/ABY/VLD after 06Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected over the marine zones every day. Gusty winds and frequent lightning will accompany these storms. Outside of storms, westerly/southwesterly winds around Cautionary levels can be expected, with possible Advisory level winds beginning Saturday night into Sunday. Seas will be ranging around 3-5 feet for the weekend. For the start of the work week, winds and seas will begin to relax with seas returning to around 2 feet with winds later lessening to around 10-15 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Widespread wetting rains this weekend will keep fire weather concerns at a minimum. Transport winds will remain out of the west to southwest around 10-20 mph through this weekend, then lessening to 5-10 mph for the upcoming work week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 An upper level trough will be sinking southward over the next couple of days, bringing a cold front towards the SE U.S.. Showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front will be plentiful with the assistance of southwesterly flow from the Gulf, increasing PWATs to range from 2.2-2.5" across the region this weekend into the start of next week. Showers and thunderstorms will be most concentrated along the coastal regions in the FL Panhandle and Big Bend. 3-6 inches are forecast with locally higher amounts of up to 8-10 inches are possible through Monday. The WPC has highlighted the entire CWA in a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall for today (Saturday). On Sunday, the Slight risk is reduced to the Florida state line, with a Marginal (level 1 of 4) for our AL and GA counties. The system begins to move out of the area on Monday with the Big Bend region in a Marginal risk. The potential for flash flooding is is increased in these areas over the next few days, hence a Flood Watch is in effect from early this morning (5 AM EDT / 4 AM CDT) through Monday afternoon. Rivers are in good condition at the moment. However, a few coastal rivers may see rises depending on where the rain ultimately falls. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 84 74 86 73 / 90 30 90 70 Panama City 87 79 87 77 / 80 60 90 70 Dothan 88 75 89 72 / 80 50 70 50 Albany 88 73 88 73 / 80 50 90 40 Valdosta 90 73 88 72 / 90 30 80 70 Cross City 86 74 85 73 / 90 80 90 80 Apalachicola 85 78 85 77 / 90 50 90 80 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for FLZ012-014-015-027>029- 034-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-426. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274045 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 638 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 638 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - A few storms may produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground lightning. - A High Risk of rip currents is expected through the weekend for all area beaches. - Moderate to strong winds over the marine area may create hazardous conditions for small craft through Sunday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 638 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Have updated to expand low end rain chances this morning to include more of interior areas based on current radar loop. Made other minor adjustments. /29 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A strong shortwave will move into the Ohio Valley today helping a carve out a trough over the eastern states. This will send a cold front southward toward the area late today into tonight. The front will likely stall along the I-65 corridor on Sunday afternoon before being pushed east on Monday. As the trough and front move into the area, the deeper moisture will be pushed eastward today with some drier air slowly moving into northwest area. As a result, the highest rain chances will be mainly east of I-65. As the front moves in overnight into Sunday, scattered pops are expected across the entire area before moving east of I-65 during the late afternoon. A few storms could produce gusty winds and small hail. however the main threat will be locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. A drier airmass moves across the entire area Monday into Tuesday with upper level ridging builds back into the area, resulting in mostly dry conditions through midweek. Moisture levels return late in the week with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. /13 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Isolated to scattered convection will be possible today and into the evening hours, with additional convection anticipated overnight as a cold front moves into the area. MVFR conditions will accompany the stronger storms, and patchy fog will be possible late tonight mainly over eastern portions of the area. Calm or light westerly winds early this morning become southwesterly 5-10 knots today, potentially 10-15 knots near the coast. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 235 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Moderate westerly winds become a moderate to occasionally strong southwesterly flow for tonight through Sunday before diminishing Sunday night. Small craft should exercise caution mainly over the open Gulf waters today. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory from 7 pm this evening until 10 am Sunday for the open Gulf waters, which may need to be extended into early Sunday evening if the southwesterly flow maintains a strength near 20 knots. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 93 77 92 72 / 10 40 30 10 Pensacola 91 80 90 77 / 20 60 70 30 Destin 90 81 89 79 / 30 60 80 50 Evergreen 91 74 91 70 / 30 30 30 10 Waynesboro 95 73 91 69 / 10 40 0 0 Camden 91 73 89 70 / 20 60 10 0 Crestview 92 76 90 72 / 40 50 60 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$ |
| #1274044 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:42 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 740 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...NEW AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Numerous TStorms this Weekend through Early Next Week. Strong Storm Potential Each Afternoon and Evening. Daily Rounds of Heavy Downpours May Cause Localized Flooding - Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches on Sunday && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights For Tonight: - Rounds of Showers and Thunderstorms, Isolated Strong Storms Possible - Locally Heavy rainfall and flooding Possible, mainly for I-75 corridor The weak frontal boundary currently just north of the Altamaha river will gradually lift northward today as a warm front ahead of a stronger cold front moving into the SE US. WSW flow strengthens this morning advecting in a more tropical airmass with PWATs of 2+ inches. This will ignite nocturnal convection over Apalachee Bay and the NE Gulf which will shift onshore during the predawn hours potentially progressing into the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor by sunrise. Convection then increases through the day and spreads ENE across NE FL and SE GA later this afternoon into evening. A cluster of upper level disturbances move in from the NW this afternoon and linger over the area tonight allowing for activity to continue well into the night and potentially into Sunday morning. With anomalously high PWATs, ample instability and support from the approaching upper impulses, numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could produce localized flash flooding with a few thunderstorms producing gusty winds of 40-55 mph. WPC has highlighted the I-75 corridor in a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall and a Marginal (level 1 of 4) for the rest of the area for today. Highs will be slightly lower than yesterday in the upper 80s along the I-75 corridor to the low 90s elsewhere. Overnight lows remain in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Rounds of Showers and Thunderstorms, Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible - Locally Heavy rainfall potential into Monday Sunday, the trough will move towards the southern Appalachians into Sunday night, becoming elongated north to south as Atlantic ridge begins to build westward towards the Atlantic waters off the southeast US coast. This will slow the surface front across the deep south just northwest of our area. The squeeze between the two mid to upper level features will yield increasing low level SW flow and tap higher moisture levels into the area with PWATs surging to near daily records of 2.20-2.40 inches. The high moisture, lift and instability ahead of the front will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms focused over the western half of inland NE FL shifting north and eastward into SE GA and the coast through the afternoon hours. Isolated strong to severe storms will develop where storm outflows and cell mergers interact. Widespread totals Sunday of 1 to 3 inches of rain will fall west of I-75 with less rainfall towards the coast, but locally heavier rainfall amounts will be possible with any slow moving or training cells (successive storms moving over the same area) which could lead to flooding in low lying and urban locations. The Weather Prediction Center has a slight risk over the Suwannee Valley of NE FL and a Marginal risk to the the rest of NE FL and SE GA. Breezy SW winds 10-15 mph will prevail Sunday with gusts to 20- 25 mph ahead of storms while more intense storms could produce gusts 40-60 mph. Sunday`s highs will be below normal due to mostly cloudy skies showers and storms, only reaching the mid to upper 80s inland to near 90 at the coast and I-95. Lows will be in the lower 70s inland and the mid 70s along the coast. Monday, the shortwave trough to the north will begin to become a closed, cut off trough across the southern Appalachian mountains While Atlantic high pressure ridging aloft builds into the Bahamas. Breezy south to southwest winds will once again prevail 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph. Shortwave energy from the trough and convergence along the Gulf and Atlantic seabreezes will lead to numerous to widespread thunderstorms in the afternoon. Isolated strong to severe storms Highs will be similar Monday in the upper 80s for NE FL and near 90 across SE GA and the coast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Decreasing Coverage of Thunderstorms by Midweek Tuesday, the closed mid to upper level trough will slowly lift away to the NNE as Atlantic ridging moves across the south and central FL peninsula. This will create a more typical Seabreeze regime of afternoon thunderstorms from Seabreeze interactions with scattered to numerous storms. The SW flow will decrease with Seabreezes merging near US-17 in the afternoon with southeast winds behind the Atlantic seabreeze. Wednesday into Thursday, Atlantic high pressure surface ridge axis will lift into SE GA with flow prevailing from the southeast and favoring a more inland progressing Atlantic seabreeze with scattered afternoon thunderstorms with Gulf/Atlantic seabreezes merging between highway 301 and I-75. Friday, the ridge axis will lift north of the area with easterly flow prevailing across the region and scattered T`storms developing well inland near I-75 Temperatures will begin with highs a little below normal Monday and near normal Tuesday, then inland highs will be above normal Wednesday into Friday with near normal coastal highs in the upper 80s to low 80s due to the onshore southeast to easterly flow. Lows will remain near normal with lows trending above normal in the low 70s inland and mid 70s at the coast with coastal lows warming to the upper 70s by Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Light generally southwesterly winds continue this morning hours, increasing around 10 kts by 18Z outside of SHRA and TSRA. Southerly winds develop at the coastal TAF sites after 16Z with the pinned Atlantic sea breeze. Waves of showers and storms will continue to move in from the west-southwest near GNV spreading to the rest of the TAF sites between 17-23Z. Have TEMPOs for stronger storms capable of gusty winds and lower VSBYs due to heavy rainfall. && .MARINE... A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary over the Georgia waters today, while high pressure remains situated over the southeastern Gulf. This weather pattern will create a prevailing offshore wind flow, with the afternoon sea breeze shifting winds to southerly in the afternoon and then back to southwesterly overnight. Coverage of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will increase this weekend and early next week as the frontal boundary over the Georgia waters lifts northward as a warm front ahead of another cold front that will be entering the southeastern states. Southwesterly winds will strengthen ahead of this front beginning Sunday morning, with Caution level wind speeds likely and periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions possible through early Monday. Strong storms will be possible each afternoon and evening through Tuesday. Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds this weekend through Monday will likely yield a low to low-end moderate risk at area beaches. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible This Weekend An active pattern will persists today the frontal boundary remains nearly stationary across Southeast Georgia. Southwesterly winds will become breezy 10-15 mph gusting to 20 mph across NE FL with winds a bit less over SE GA 8-12 mph, becoming southeasterly at the coast behind the afternoon Atlantic seabreeze 10-15 mph gusting to 20 mph. A wave of energy aloft and lift along the front and seabreezes will create Numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. The front will lift away as another front approaches from the northwest Sunday and then stall Monday just northwest of the area with numerous to widespread afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day and breezy southwest winds. Locally heavy rainfall is possible this weekend into early next week with widespread rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches west of I-75 and 1-2 inches towards the coast with locally heavier totals possible. Dispersions will be in the good range through the weekend as surface and transport winds increase slightly by Sunday while clouds increase and limit mixing heights. Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected during the next several mornings. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible into the weekend with gusty winds up to 40-60 mph in thunderstorms. In addition, outflows from distant thunderstorms may also produce gusty and erratic winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 91 73 89 73 / 90 60 80 60 SSI 90 76 91 75 / 90 50 80 40 JAX 92 74 89 73 / 70 30 80 30 SGJ 91 74 88 74 / 70 30 70 30 GNV 90 73 85 72 / 70 70 80 60 OCF 89 73 85 73 / 80 50 80 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ450-452-470-472. && $$ |
| #1274043 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:30 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 718 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Introduced a slight chance of showers/t-storms this afternoon though most will stay dry. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry Saturday with a mix of clouds and sun, but there remains a chance for some widely scattered showers or t-storms. - A cold front brings the return of heavy rain and gusty winds Sunday night and Monday, perhaps lingering into Tuesday. - Periodic rain chances will be with us for much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly dry Saturday with a mix of clouds and sun, but there remains a chance for some widely scattered showers or t- storms. A warmer airmass remains overhead thanks to brief mid level ridging. This will continue to deliver highs in the mid to upper 80s Saturday and Sunday. The ridge axis crosses SNE this morning then begins to break down slowly over the next 24-36 hours. For this reason, despite the surface high pressure nearby, introduced a slight chance of rain showers or a thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly over the interior. That being said, the forecast for a mostly dry day persists, with just some widely scattered showers or thunderstorms given a few 1000 J/kg of CAPE. Any convection that does fire up has the potential to induce a quick downpour given PWATs still over 1". For most locations we`ll see a mix of sun and diurnal low level clouds. High clouds will be thickening and lowering through the day ahead of the approaching system. KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front brings the return of heavy rain and gusty winds Sunday night and Monday, perhaps lingering into Tuesday. The mid level ridge continues to break down on Sunday as an anomolous mid-level low digs into the Ohio Valley inducing a deepening surface low which itself very slowly tracks northeast. This wave moves into New England by Monday, accompanied by and preceded by an anomalous subtropical moisture plume with PWATS over 2" (2+SD above normal). Isentropically forced rain arrives by late Sunday evening (west) or Sunday night (east) as warm advection takes hold. The heaviest rainfall rates likely occur on Monday as the cold front advances at the surface. This, combined with forcing for ascent from a 35-45kt LLJ and placement under the RRQ of a 120kt 300mb jet will lead to moderate to heavy rainfall across SNE. Still too soon to say where the heaviest amounts will be or how much, but ensemble guidance is not excited about potential for 2+ inches through Tuesday morning despite some deterministic guidance suggesting it. This will come into focus as we get into range of more high resolution guidance. The previously mentioned LLJ will bring gusty winds on Monday, especially over the Cape/islands and over the waters. KEY MESSAGE 3...Periodic rain chances will be with us for much of next week. Low confidence forecast when it comes to how much, if any, of a break we see in wet weather between the exiting shortwave Monday night/early Tuesday and the next. That being said, no sprawling or persistent high pressure ridge is in the cards so periodic rain chances likely persist. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12Z TAF Update: Today: High confidence. VFR. SW winds around 5-10 kt, with seabreezes developing at BOS around 14-15z. Low chance of a shower or thunderstorm 17z-00z. Low clouds/fog dissipated by 13Z. Saturday night:High confidence. VFR to start. MVFR cigs move in after 06z, mainly SFZ-GHG south. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely, chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA. Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Winds and seas below small craft advisory levels through Sunday. Light SW tonight then pick up to around 10-15 kt this afternoon and to 15-20 kt tonight. Seas 3 ft or less through tonight, then increase to 3-4 ft. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1274042 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:30 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 724 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 722 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Peak heat index values will range between 105 and 110 across most areas this afternoon. A Heat Advisory will be in effect from 11 AM through 6 PM for Broward and Miami Dade County. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorm will develop this afternoon with the highest chances occurring over the Lake region as well as the east coast metro areas. - High rainfall rates will be possible with the stronger storms creating the potential for localized flooding especially across the east coast metro areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A rather deep mid level trough/closed low complex over the Midwest will slowly dig towards the Deep South as today progresses. The mid level low will slowly try to open up heading into Sunday as it slowly pushes southeastward, however, deep troughing will still extend into the Southeast and into the northern Gulf during this time frame. As the main trough axis will remain off to the north of the region, a weak vort max will slowly pass through the Florida Panhandle today before moving across the rest of Northern Florida tonight into Sunday. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary will remain stalled out well off to the north over the Southeast today and this front will eventually wash out heading into tonight. Another frontal boundary will slowly push through the Southeast and towards the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday. South Florida will remain well to the south of the boundary, and therefore, synoptic surface winds will generally remain south to southwesterly both today and Sunday. While a pocket of drier air in the lower to mid levels of the atmospheric column, (between 850 and 550mb), will try to hold on through most of today, the latest forecast model soundings show that this layer will give way to deeper moisture advection especially heading into this afternoon through Sunday. With increasing moisture combined with south to southwesterly wind flow, the east coast sea breeze will remain pinned over the metro areas this afternoon and then again on Sunday. With a rather light steering flow in place, showers and thunderstorms will be relatively slow moving. This, combined with the abundance of moisture pushing into the region will result in the potential for localized flooding especially over the east coast metro areas for both this afternoon and Sunday afternoon as well. Some of the thunderstorm activity will have the potential to become strong and contain gusty winds each afternoon especially over the Lake Region and portions of the east coast metro areas where instability will be maximized during peak diurnal heating. Heat will be a concern throughout the weekend as high temperatures rise into the lower to mid 90s across a good portion of South Florida. Peak heat index values will generally range between 105 and 110 across most of the region this afternoon and then once again on Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 The beginning of the week will feature the rather deep mid level trough still remaining over the Southeast as well as the northern Gulf on Monday. However, the latest global and ensemble guidance suite does show mid level ridging in the western Atlantic trying to push back over the region starting later on Monday and then even more so heading into Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, what is left of the second frontal boundary stalled out over Northern Florida as well as the Northern Gulf on Monday will gradually wash out heading into Tuesday. The western periphery of surface high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will then gradually shift back over the Florida Peninsula for Tuesday and Wednesday. This will create a wind shift allowing for winds to become south southeasterly as Monday progresses, and then slowly becoming easterly moving towards the middle of the week. With the influx of moisture continuing especially through monday, combined with the light south to southwest steering flow in place, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop as the sea breezes push inland. The east coast sea breeze will still remain relatively pinned for one more day on Monday, allowing for the highest chances of convection to remain over the interior as well as the east coast metro areas. With PWAT values generally looking to remain at 2.0 inches or higher during this time frame, heavy downpours and slow moving thunderstorms could continue the potential for localized flooding on Monday. While Tuesday and Wednesday will feature additional shower and thunderstorm development, the highest chances will shift and remain over the interior and southwest Florida each afternoon and evening during this time frame. High temperatures each day through the middle of the week will continue to rise into the lower 90s across most of South Florida. Peak heat index values will still create a heat concern during this time frame as they will range between 105 and 110 each afternoon. Easterly winds remain firmly in place heading into the second half of the week, however, uncertainty rises in the forecast during this time frame as some of the global and ensemble guidance is hinting at the potential for another weak TUTT to make a close pass near the region. This could increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame and it will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. With easterly wind flow remaining in place, the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame will continue to be focused over the interior as well as Southwest Florida. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 722 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Winds will gradually enhance out of a southwesterly direction this morning with the eventual development of an Atlantic sea-breeze at coastal terminals during the early afternoon hours. SHRA/TSRA is forecast to develop between 18-20z along the sea-breeze which may result in bouts of sub-MVFR cig/vis between 20-23z. Erratic and gusty winds may be realized at terminals as well in and around TSRA. L/V winds forecast once again overnight with increasing SHRA activity during the end of the TAF forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A gentle to moderate south to southwesterly wind flow will continue across most of the local waters through the weekend. These winds will gradually shift and become more southeasterly as the early portion of next week progresses. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the weekend and into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 79 92 80 / 40 30 40 10 West Kendall 93 76 92 77 / 30 20 40 10 Opa-Locka 95 79 93 80 / 40 30 40 20 Homestead 93 79 92 80 / 30 20 40 10 Fort Lauderdale 92 79 91 80 / 50 30 40 20 N Ft Lauderdale 93 80 91 80 / 50 30 50 20 Pembroke Pines 94 80 92 81 / 40 30 40 20 West Palm Beach 93 77 92 78 / 70 30 60 30 Boca Raton 92 79 91 79 / 60 30 50 30 Naples 91 79 91 79 / 20 20 40 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ071>074-172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274041 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 616 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Major risk of heat-related impacts today with peak heat indices 110 to 115 degrees across the Coastal Plains and high temperatures in the triple digits over interior locations. - Elevated fire weather conditions expected today through early next week over the western Brush country. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms expected on Sunday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A mid-level ridge will continue to control our weather pattern through early next week resulting in hot and dry conditions for the CWA. However, the aforementioned ridge`s eastern flank will weaken due to a strengthening trough in the Ohio Valley resulting in increased moisture filtering into the area. Model guidance is supportive of this as PWAT values are over 2", with isolated spots approaching 2.2". In addition, vorticity in the mid-levels (500 mb) will support the development of showers and thunderstorms over Central Texas this afternoon. Some guidance hints at a broken line of showers entering our northern counties tonight. However, this line looks to be in its decaying stage by the time it reaches our area so will maintain only 15-20% rain chances. Weak low-lvl convergence and moisture pooling nearly the largely-washed out boundary will maintain low-end rain chances through the day on Sunday before drier air moves in for the upcoming workweek and rain chances return to near zero. Due to the influence of the aforementioned mid-level ridge, hot temperatures will prevail through the first week of August. Areas east of Highway 77 have a high chance of highs exceeding 100F through early next week. Today, heat index values will likely exceed 110F over much of the Coastal Plains (even approaching 115 in spots), and therefore a heat advisory has been issued for that region. Although there should be enough mixing of drier air towards the surface over the Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains to keep that region below criteria it will still be quite hot with a largely major (level 3/4) heat risk. This drier air will persist over the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains through most of the period with minimum RH levels dropping below 30% each afternoon. This, coupled with wind gusts between 10-15 kts will allow for an elevated fire risk into early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Low level clouds and patchy fog have spread across the central portions of S TX this morning, but is expected to dissipate by mid morning. This is leading to a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions. A few spots are IFR including ALI and VCT. VFR conditions by mid morning will continue through this afternoon and most of tonight. Brief MVFR conditions expected once again toward Sunday morning. However, guidance is indicating that IFR conditions are much less likely. S-SE winds 5-15 knots with occasional gusts around 20 knots, mainly eastern TAF sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A gentle to moderate onshore (largely S-SE) flow can generally be expected through the forecast period, with occasional fresh winds during the overnight and morning hours. Seas will generally range from 2-4 feet through the forecast period. The only appreciable rain chances in the period will be on Sunday and even then chances will only be around 20%. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Hot temperatures, dry fuels, and low afternoon relative humidity will continue to support periods of elevated fire weather conditions across the Brush Country through early next week. While winds over the western Brush Country will remain relatively light during the afternoons, ERC values will run between the 60th and 75th percentiles and min RHs will dip below 30% each afternoon through early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 97 79 97 78 / 0 10 20 0 Victoria 100 78 100 75 / 0 20 20 10 Laredo 106 82 103 80 / 0 10 10 10 Alice 102 78 100 76 / 0 10 20 10 Rockport 92 81 94 81 / 0 10 10 0 Cotulla 104 82 103 79 / 0 10 20 10 Kingsville 100 78 99 77 / 0 10 20 0 Navy Corpus 90 81 91 81 / 0 10 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ234-241>247-342>344-346-347. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274040 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 605 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 605 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Hot conditions will persist through next week; Saturday through Monday will be the hottest period; SPSs to Heat Advisories will likely be needed. - High temperatures will generally range between the upper 90s to mid 100s with peak heat indices between 105-115F degrees through next week. - Widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) to Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk with pockets of Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk can be expected through next week. - Breezy southeasterly winds will persist nearly each day through next week with speeds generally between 10-25 mph and peak gusts up to 35 mph. - Mostly Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions over the Laguna Madre will persist nearly each day through next week. - Borderline Fire Danger Statement (RFD) conditions can be expected at times through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1028 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected to continue through the middle parts of next week. Driving our weather pattern will be a strong 591-594 dam sub-tropical heat ridge centered over the Desert Southwest. Additionally, an enhanced pressure and thermal gradient will result in breezy southeast winds nearly each day with speeds generally ranging between 15-25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph. Special Weather Statements (SPSs) to Heat Advisories may be needed each day going forward (especially Thursday through Sunday) as daytime high temperatures will range between the upper 90s to mid 100s with peak heat indices ranging generally between 105- 115F degrees. Heat Risk concerns will continue through the middle parts of next week. Widespread Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk with pockets of Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk can be expected. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Favorable aviation conditions are expected through the next 24 hours with limited cloud cover and rain-free skies. Winds will be light at night but breezy during the daytime with stronger gusts. && .MARINE... Issued at 1028 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Generally favorable marine conditions will persist through the forecast period with mainly moderate winds and low to moderate seas. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions will likely be needed each day over the Laguna Madre due to persistently breezy southeast winds from an enhanced pressure gradient. There could be brief periods where winds reach low end Small Craft Advisory. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 98 81 100 80 / 0 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 103 78 103 77 / 0 0 10 0 MCALLEN 106 81 106 80 / 0 0 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 105 79 104 79 / 0 0 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 81 90 80 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 98 79 98 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ251. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274037 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 633 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Bay for this afternoon into tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly dry weather, slightly below average temperatures, and lower humidity to start the weekend. 2) A typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week, with near average temperatures and increasing shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 243 AM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry weather, slightly below average temperatures, and lower humidity today ahead of an unsettled period. Low pressure is slowly drifting off the Northeast coast, with a weak surface high across the local area this morning. Generally light southerly winds and temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s are being observed across the area. Satellite imagery is highlighting upper-level cirrus spreading across the East Coast that is emanating off of another low pressure system centered across Illinois. This trough will be one of the focal points for weather in the coming days, but dry conditions will continue today. Upper heights are forecast to build a bit as the ridge and aforementioned surface high nudge offshore and the low-level flow southerly flow begins to increase. Highs near 90F with afternoon dew points rising into the mid-upper 60s will make for a slightly more humid, warmer day than we have seen the past few days. KEY MESSAGE 2....A more typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week, with near average temperatures and increasing shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing through early next week. The pattern becomes more unsettled by Sunday will continue into early next week as a slow moving upper-level trough approaches from the west. At the same time, a weak cold front approaches from the north, but will remain north of the local area through Monday (and likely wash out by Tue). With the approaching trough and Bermuda high pressure well offshore, deep-layered S to SW flow will prevail. This will allow rich Gulf moisture to overspread the area on Sunday and remain over us early next week. PWs surge from a comfortable 1- 1.4" on Saturday to 2.2-2.4" by late Sunday/Sunday night. Scattered to potentially numerous showers/tstms are expected Sunday. The highest precip chances will initially be across south-central VA during the afternoon (as the deep moisture arrives here first). Showers and tstms should gradually spread NE through the evening (though it may very well remain dry near the immediate coast and on the eastern shore). Showers/tstms are likely across the entire area on Monday as a lead shortwave potentially tracks over the area. Monday appears to be the day with the highest convective coverage during the period. The trough dampens a bit from Tuesday/Wednesday, but scattered showers and tstms are still expected during the aftn/evening on both days as weak SW flow aloft continues and deep moisture remains nearby. Given the environment and relatively weak unidirectional flow aloft and tall/skinny CAPE, there will be a threat of localized flash flooding each day, but the severe threat should remain relatively low with these storms. Temperatures dip down slightly below average during the early week period thanks to the cloud cover and multiple rounds of rain. Though not quite as unsettled as the first half of the week, the latter half of the week will see isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. With the decreased coverage forecast, temperatures will return to near to slightly above normal with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 633 AM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this morning. Light, generally SE-S winds of ~5 kts or less are being measured, with some upper cirrus moving across the area. The upper cirrus will remain across the area through this evening, with some FEW-SCT lower level clouds developing later this morning into the afternoon. SE-S winds will continue, but are forecast to increase to 6-12 kts. Outlook: VFR/dry Saturday night through Sunday morning as high pressure settles offshore. Shower/tstm chances return on Sunday and Monday as a slow moving upper trough approaches the area, and linger into Tuesday/Wednesday. Periodic sub-VFR conditions are possible during this time, mainly from early morning stratus, and brief vsby restrictions in heavy rain. && .MARINE... As of 220 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay from this afternoon into the early overnight hours. - Another period of SCA conditions is likely Sunday afternoon into Monday ahead of a weakening cold front. Early morning analysis shows high pressure off the Southeast coast with surface low pressure and cold front noted over the Midwest. Winds over the local waters are generally from the S at 5-10 kt. Waves in the bay are around 1 ft with seas 2 ft. The aforementioned Midwest low will become vertically aligned with an upper closed low today, resulting in only slow movement to the east. Guidance suggests that the gradient between this low and high pressure offshore will tighten sufficiently to result in 15-20 kt SE winds over the Ches Bay from this afternoon through the evening hours. Winds in the tidal rivers, Currituck Sound, and offshore zones are expected to stay below SCA thresholds. Winds are expected to relax back into the 10-15 kt range after midnight. Waves and seas briefly build to 2-3 ft during the enhanced SE flow tonight. The surface low and its associated cold front will translate slowly eastward on Sunday, allowing the pressure gradient to steepen again. Additional SCA headlines are likely Sunday night into Monday for the majority of the local waters. Given a longer duration SW flow event, seas will have more time to build into the 3-6 ft range (0-20nm range, highest N). Farther offshore, seas increase to 5-7 ft for a period late Sunday into Monday. The front is forecast to wash out over inland areas late Monday into Tuesday. Afternoon and evening shower and storm chances return Sunday and linger well into next week with locally higher winds/waves/seas likely to accompany the stronger convection. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634. && $$ |
| #1274035 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 645 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for Sunday through Monday. Aviation discussion updated for 12Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Wet and unsettled pattern Sunday through at least mid week 2) Strong southerly winds and hazardous marine conditions expected to develop Sunday into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Wet and unsettled pattern Sunday through at least mid week A potent shortwave trough currently over the Upper/Mid MS Valley will track east-southeast into the Ohio and Tn Valley through the weekend before slowing down and potentially closing off over the SE US/southern Appalachians early next week. The system is then expected to linger while gradually weakening through midweek, before finally lifting off to the NE late in the work week. Deep southwesterly moisture transport between this slow moving system and subtropical ridging over the western Atlantic will maintain an axis of anomalously moist air, with PWATs of 2.0- 2.50"(125-1505 of normal), across eastern portions of the Carolinas through much of the period. A northward lifting warm front will provide the initial focus for showers and storms on Sunday, with additional daily rounds of convection Mon-Wed aided by embedded shortwave impulses interacting with seabreeze and upper divergence associated with a jet over the Appalachians. As the trough gradually weakens, convective rain chances should transition to a more typical diurnally driven pattern as anomalous moisture remains in place. This unsettled pattern could provide some much needed drought relief, with widespread rainfall total of 1 to 2 inches expected during the period. Locally higher amounts will be possible where storms repeatedly track over the same area, which could also lead to isolated flooding. Despite widespread cloud cover and generally weak lapse rates, highs in the 80s combined with dew points in the mid to upper 70s should support moderate instability, allowing for an isolated severe threat each day. KEY MESSAGE 2...Strong southerly winds and hazardous marine conditions expected to develop Sunday afternoon and linger through Monday. See marine section below. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Predominately VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon with increasing and thickening clouds high clouds through the day. Strengthening moisture advection ahead of an approaching front will support isolated to widely scattered showers Saturday evening into tonight with increasing chc of shwrs and thunderstorms into Sunday. Light SE winds of 5 to 10 kts will increase slightly by the afternoon, with some gusts up to 15 to 20 kts possible. Extended Forecast... A slow moving upper trough settling over the region, combined with an anomalously moist airmass, will support periods of showers and storms from Sunday through at least the middle part of next. Periodic sub-VFR restrictions will be possible in heavier showers and thunderstorms. The moist low-level airmass will also support a greater potential for morning stratus each day. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday...Southeast winds gradually increase late this afternoon and veer to southerly Saturday night as a stalled front lifts back to the coast. Winds increase considerably on Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens and the front lifts inland, resulting in breezy south winds with gusts likely to pass SCA criteria Sunday afternoon and likely to continue into Monday. Weak winds will yield benign seas between 1-3 ft through Saturday night. Seas rapidly increase to 4-6 ft as winds increase on Sunday and these continue into Monday before relaxing gradually Monday night and Tuesday. Winds come back down towards a moderate breeze Tuesday and Wednesday, while seas gradually improve to 2-4 ft Tuesday and Wednesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1274036 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 633 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 629 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - A Flood Watch is in effect for southern parts of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend this morning through Monday afternoon. Widespread rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with localized amounts up to 8 to 10 inches are possible through Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday Night) Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Showers and thunderstorms through the weekend will be the main focus for this term. An upper level trough will be extending southward with a cold front heading towards the SE U.S. bringing a high chance for rain and thunderstorms that could produce totals of several inches. The setup is conducive for the coastal regions to receive the most rainfall as we will have southwest flow bringing in moisture from the Gulf with the frontal boundary settling across the Tri-State region. Forecast PWATs will range from 2.2-2.5", indicating the potential for heavy rainfall. Fortunately, environmental factors are not showing an increased risk for any severe weather however, storms could still produce isolated damaging wind gusts. Guidance starts with showers and thunderstorms developing along the Emerald Coast this morning prior to daybreak. These storms may hug along the coastal region for several hours, leading to the potential of nuisance and/or flash flooding. As the day progresses, the showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous and spread eastwards and inland. The overall system, being pushed eastward by the front and upper-level trough will continue through Monday bringing several rounds of rain to the region. The WPC has highlighted much of the area in a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall for today (Saturday) and covers the Panhandle/Big Bend region through Sunday and hence a Flood Watch has been issued for the coastal communities of the FL Panhandle and Big Bend through Monday afternoon for the potential of receiving 3-6 inches of rain with locally higher amounts of up to 8-10 inches possible through Monday. More info is discussed in the Hydrology section. Temperatures for the Short term will be in the mid to upper 80s for the afternoon highs thanks to the abundant cloud cover and rain. Overnight lows will be in the low-mid 70s, and humid. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 For the start of the Long Term, the upper level trough will begin to lift and shift eastward, lowering our rain/thunderstorm chances as we head into mid-week. Temperatures will begin to climb back into the mid and upper 90s by the end of the term and overnight lows in the mid-70s with daily PoPs gradually decreasing to about 30-40% each afternoon; a more typical summertime pattern. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Models have trended to more MVFR cigs today and especially with the rainfall today into this evening. Speaking of rain, showers and storms will develop and increase in coverage this morning as a shortwave trough moves into the area. Much of the day will be off and on convection with probabilities 70-90% beginning a little later this morning. Heading into this evening convection coverage should decrease till the overnight hours. MVFR/IFR cigs will redevelop affecting DHN/ABY/VLD after 06Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected over the marine zones every day. Gusty winds and frequent lightning will accompany these storms. Outside of storms, westerly/southwesterly winds around Cautionary levels can be expected, with possible Advisory level winds beginning Saturday night into Sunday. Seas will be ranging around 3-5 feet for the weekend. For the start of the work week, winds and seas will begin to relax with seas returning to around 2 feet with winds later lessening to around 10-15 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Widespread wetting rains this weekend will keep fire weather concerns at a minimum. Transport winds will remain out of the west to southwest around 10-20 mph through this weekend, then lessening to 5-10 mph for the upcoming work week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 An upper level trough will be sinking southward over the next couple of days, bringing a cold front towards the SE U.S.. Showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front will be plentiful with the assistance of southwesterly flow from the Gulf, increasing PWATs to range from 2.2-2.5" across the region this weekend into the start of next week. Showers and thunderstorms will be most concentrated along the coastal regions in the FL Panhandle and Big Bend. 3-6 inches are forecast with locally higher amounts of up to 8-10 inches are possible through Monday. The WPC has highlighted the entire CWA in a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall for today (Saturday). On Sunday, the Slight risk is reduced to the Florida state line, with a Marginal (level 1 of 4) for our AL and GA counties. The system begins to move out of the area on Monday with the Big Bend region in a Marginal risk. The potential for flash flooding is is increased in these areas over the next few days, hence a Flood Watch is in effect from early this morning (5 AM EDT / 4 AM CDT) through Monday afternoon. Rivers are in good condition at the moment. However, a few coastal rivers may see rises depending on where the rain ultimately falls. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 87 74 86 73 / 90 30 90 70 Panama City 88 79 87 77 / 70 60 90 70 Dothan 89 75 89 72 / 80 50 70 50 Albany 89 73 88 73 / 90 50 90 40 Valdosta 91 73 88 72 / 80 30 80 70 Cross City 88 74 85 73 / 90 80 90 80 Apalachicola 86 78 85 77 / 80 50 90 80 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for FLZ012-014-015-027>029- 034-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-426. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274034 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 645 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 152 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Additional rounds of showers and storms are forecast through the weekend. Storms may form earlier in the day than usual. Frequent lightning and gusty winds to 40-50 mph will be the primary hazards. - Later today, there is a 5-10% chance of rainfall exceeding 3 inches in less than 2 hours. This may lead to localized flooding of urban and poorly drained areas. - High pressure expands over Florida early next week. However, continued high moisture and sea breeze interactions should keep storm chances elevated, especially over the interior and Lake Okeechobee region. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 152 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 -----------Synoptic Overview----------- Early this morning, water vapor imagery reveals a rather complex upper-air pattern across the U.S. for the first day of August. A pair of shortwaves is keeping a broad dip in the jet stream over the Eastern U.S. The stronger of these two features is currently located near the Quad Cities. Exceptionally stout ridging extends from the Caribbean to the Desert Southwest, where 01/00Z RAOBs returned H5 heights of 601 dam at Flagstaff, AZ and 600 dam at El Paso, TX. Locally, H5 heights exceed 590 dam; warm mid-level temperatures are resulting in poor H7-H5 lapse rates, which is rather typical for the time of year. The energy approaching the Mississippi Valley will soon carve out a longwave trough; it will then move little through Sunday. A weak quasi-stationary front should remain well north of Central Florida. Mean southwesterly flow in the boundary layer maintains rich moisture over the state with PWAT values from 100-130% of normal through at least Monday. Amid subtle height falls, weak vorticity maxima are forecast to rotate around the trough west of Florida, providing forcing for occasional convection. By Monday, the Bermuda High will attempt to retrograde over the W Atlantic, promoting height rises over Florida. As ensemble members weaken the trough over the Tennessee Valley by Tuesday, the near-surface ridge axis is likely to trek north of our latitude by midweek, providing light onshore flow off the Atlantic. Confidence trails off late in the work week and toward next weekend. The 31/12Z grand ensemble and fellow AI members initialized an easterly wave over the Canary Islands. The model suite sends this disturbance westward across the Atlantic, perhaps approaching Florida by late Thursday or Friday. PWAT anomalies clearly show an increase in moisture associated with this feature, but we expect further refinements to the forecast as this disturbance is currently 3800 miles to our east. -------Sensible Weather & Impacts------- This Weekend... Periods of active weather should be expected. Those planning to be outdoors will need to listen for thunder, watch for darkening skies, and find safe shelter when storms threaten! Nocturnal showers and storms extending along the FL Panhandle early this morning suggest a weak disturbance is present. If this is the case, an earlier-than-normal start to showers and storms is on the table for today, perhaps as early as late morning/midday near and northwest of Interstate 4. Relatively weak offshore winds may allow a sea breeze to form and hug the coast. Boundary interactions would support numerous storms near and east of I-95 in the afternoon. Wind gusts to 40-45 mph and frequent lightning will be the primary hazards. There is a 5-10% chance of rainfall totals exceeding 3", especially along the coast. Localized urban flooding is possible where this rainfall occurs over poorly drained areas. Boundary-layer flow increases from Saturday night into Sunday. Additional weak energy approaching N FL is likely to spark overnight showers and storms northwest of our area, and some of this may reach Lake County overnight. This portends another early start to shower and storm chances on Sunday, especially over our northern half. Then, daytime heating will provide an additional spark for storm development over the eastern half of the peninsula. While shear is weak, the enhanced mid-level flow (20-25 kts) will be sufficient for a few stronger storms with wind gusts from 50 to 55 mph. There is a very small chance for a severe gust to around 60 mph. Hot and muggy conditions continue, with highs in the low/mid 90s and heat indices from 100 to 107. Of the two days, today looks slightly hotter. Monday - Tuesday... This still appears to be a transition period for local weather conditions. High pressure will begin to push overhead, weakening background flow just a bit. As that occurs, the sea breeze will begin to move inland each afternoon, with better progression especially by Tuesday. Near- to above-normal moisture values will continue to support scattered to numerous showers and storms (50% to 80%) each day. Seasonably hot temperatures will persist as well, outside of the storms. Wednesday - next Saturday... On Wednesday and Thursday, light onshore flow should finally return, giving us more typical summertime conditions. As the sea breeze pushes inland, a few storms may try to form closer to the coast before concentrating over the interior and points westward. By Friday and Saturday, the easterly wave mentioned in the overview may reach the state. Should this happen, it would provide increased moisture and an uptick in shower/storm opportunities late in the week. While a few deterministic runs have recently shown tropical development with this feature, the GEFS and EPS ensembles are generally unimpressed and favor an open wave/trough as it passes into the W Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center is not expecting tropical cyclone formation over the next 7 days. Continued hot and muggy with highs near normal in the low/mid 90s. && .MARINE... Issued at 152 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 High pressure remains situated south of the local Atlantic this weekend. A nearly-stationary front will stay to the north. Weak to moderate offshore flow persists, but as the sea breeze attempts to form, winds may turn southeasterly in the afternoon near the coast, especially south of Cape Canaveral. Scattered to numerous offshore-moving storms remain the primary hazard for boaters this weekend. Winds freshen some on Sunday, especially in the Gulf Stream. Next week, high pressure will lift slowly northward, with onshore breezes returning by midweek. SW to S winds up to 12 kt today, increasing to 12-18 kt on Sunday. Winds slowly turn out of the SE early next week, up to 12 kt. Seas of 1-2 ft nearshore, except locally 3 ft off of Volusia County on Sunday. Seas reach 3-4 ft in the Gulf Stream north of Cape Canaveral on Sunday and early Monday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 645 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Patchy MVFR CIGs possible across north interior terminals, incl MCO, through 14Z or so. Will start LEE off with VCSH given ongoing convection pushing in off the Gulf and expand that to all northern terminals at 14Z then transition to VCTS. W/SW flow will continue today 7-10 knots but slightly weaker than Fri and this should allow the east coast sea breeze to more fully form along the coast but inland progress will be difficult as it fights the offshore flow. Have adjusted TEMPOs starting at LEE (16Z), then MCO/SFB at 17Z. With a better chance of a sea breeze along the coast, also added TEMPO TS conds for coastal terminals starting at 18Z-19Z. Gusty winds around 35 knots will accompany the stronger storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 75 88 74 / 80 20 80 20 MCO 92 75 89 75 / 60 30 70 10 MLB 91 75 90 75 / 70 20 60 10 VRB 91 73 91 74 / 70 30 60 10 LEE 89 75 86 75 / 70 50 80 30 SFB 92 76 89 75 / 80 30 70 10 ORL 92 76 89 75 / 70 30 70 10 FPR 91 73 90 74 / 60 30 70 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1274033 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:42 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 537 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory in effect for our southern counties (including the City of Houston) this afternoon. - Frontal boundary may bring isolated to widely scattered showers/ storms later today / this evening, though a morning shower is possible in our northern counties. - Forecast has trended hotter for Sunday and especially Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 As of 12AM CDT, there are few things that catch my eye as I write this AFD. Water vapor imagery is currently telling a story of a flow pattern in flux. The ridge that has dominated Texas weather over the last weak is shifting west, with the center of its ridge axis firmly over W CONUS. Meanwhile, a deep low over the Midwest is diving east to southeast, while its trailing cold front extends all the way down into SE Oklahoma and N Texas. The airmass behind the front is also of interest, featuring decreasing dew points and cooler temperatures. Me thinks the falling dew points are in SE TX`s future....the cooler temps not so much. The HRRR continues to insist on a band of showers that develops over our northern counties early this morning. The showers push southward, fizzling out before reaching the I-10 corridor. Some of the other CAMs suggest the presence of an isolated shower or two. There does appear to be plenty of dry air in the 900-700 MB zone. But ML water vapor imagery suggests there is slightly less ML dry air in our northern zones. So I kept some PoPs in the forecast north of I-10 this morning to give the HRRR a little weight in the forecast. We shall see... This aforementioned front should continue its southward push, reaching our neck of the woods by later today or tonight. There`s still some question regarding the timing of the front. Will the front be able to interact with peak daytime heating? Latest guidance suggest it won`t arrive in SE TX until the evening, when daytime heating is being lost. Therefore, the chance of seeing showers/thunderstorms has decreased but has not been eliminated for later today. A veering wind profile ahead of the front will support a modest WAA regime when the air is already quite hot. Forecast peak heat indices from the I-10 counties to the coast are generally 107-110 degrees, warranting the issuance of a Heat Advisory from 1PM to 7PM CDT in our southern zones. There could be a sweet spot that`s just inland enough to limit Gulf influence but also just coastal enough to limit mixing that manages to reach 111-112F. Sunday may feature some showers and isolated storms near the coast and offshore in the morning. Otherwise, much drier air infiltrates the area in the front`s wake. Mid/upper heights will be at their lowest on Sunday, generally supporting a cooler temperature profile. But drier air and the August sun should boost temperatures into the upper 90s to around 100 (low 90s coast). Inland dew points are expected to be well down into the 60s, which should keep heat indices below advisory criteria. The dry air may not make it to the coast. So if you`re in a coastal county, you may remain in the humid soup. But on Monday, the ridge builds back into the region, warming the temperatures profile. With a similar dry LL regime remaining in place, Monday`s actual temperatures cold get quite hot. Right now, we have high temperatures ~100 degrees across most inland areas. But this is technically a little "cooler" than most of the guidance. If forecast temperatures trend another 2-3 degree higher, then we could be approaching Heat Advisory criteria for actual temperatures (103+). The high heat may linger into Tuesday before temperatures attempt to modify down to normal by mid/late week. Self && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 537 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Cluster of showers is currently moving southward towards our northern terminals ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. This band of showers is expected to dissipate before it makes it to the Houston metro terminals. Additionally, low-end MVFR ceilings are ongoing across the northern terminals (CXO and northward) and will likely persist through 15Z. Can`t rule out brief MVFR ceilings at IAH this morning. High resolution model guidance has trended drier for this afternoon. However, given that showers are already developing up north, have decided to keep the PROB30`s for showers in the afternoon for IAH and northward. Further south, confidence remains too low to include any SH mentions. A stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out either for sites with the PROB30`s. Winds will start out southwesterly this morning around 8-12 kt with occasional gusts of 15-20 kt possible this afternoon. Winds will become light and northerly behind the front. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Southwest winds 10-15 knots should gradually increase to 15-20 knots later today into tonight. For Galveston Bay and our eastern Gulf zones, winds may gust to around 25 knots at times. Small vessels should exercise caution later today into tonight. A frontal boundary approaches the area this evening into tonight, possibly resulting in a few showers and thunderstorms tonight into Sunday morning. Westerly winds are expected on Sunday, followed by continued light to moderate south to southwest winds through much of the upcoming week. Winds may become more south-southeast late in the week. Seas should primarily be 2-3 feet, but could build to 4 feet (locally 5ft) Saturday night in our eastern Gulf zones. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 97 75 99 73 / 30 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 99 79 100 78 / 20 20 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 94 82 92 82 / 10 20 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 1 PM to 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ335-355. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ335-355. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Sunday morning for GMZ375. && $$ |
| #1274032 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:42 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 533 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...NEW AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 525 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast on Sunday with gusty winds and locally heavy rain being the primary threats. A few storms could become strong to severe resulting in damaging wind gusts and localized flooding. Anyone with outdoor plans for Sunday should stay weather aware and have a plan for where to take shelter if thunderstorms affect their location. - Slightly drier air will move into the area to start next week, leading to temporary relief from the recent heat through the first half of the workweek. By the second half of the week, moisture will return to the area, with heat index values possibly reaching hazardous levels again by Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Overall, the trend again for another day is rather on the dry side when compared to the forecast a couple of days ago. Upstream we are watching a fairly robust upper level trough dig across the Mid MS River Valley, which will allow for an ULL to drop southward into the Tennessee River Valley through the weekend and into early next week. Up stream we continue to watch a front over the Red River Valley, which should settle across the region later tonight. Although today looks a bit lackluster in terms of QPF, a nonzero convective chance will be there with the highest POPs residing over the MS Gulf Coast. Rain chances do increase overnight as the front begins to set up along the coast. However, given this isn`t the best opportunity over land, POPs are a bit more modest than others during the afternoon hours. That said, with the diurnal cycle, there will be some night time showers and storms over the Gulf waters. Drier air begins to filter southward behind the front to start the new workweek. This will help limit "feels like" temperatures and no heat headlines look to be needed through the short term period. Sadly, this will keep any precip chances fairly limited and mostly offshore through the period. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 By Tuesday evening, a longwave trough will be over much of Canada, while the upper ridge will be centered near Las Vegas with an upper trough from the upper Ohio River Valley to the Mississippi-Alabama coast. At the surface, a weak front may be close to Interstate 20, while high pressure is over much of the Gulf. Precipitable water values Tuesday evening will be around the 25th percentile (1.6 inches), and with low level flow becoming southerly, but very weak, those moisture levels won`t really start to increase until the end of the week. By Friday, moisture will be around 2 inches, which is closer to the 75th percentile. Probably will not be much more than isolated convection during the heat of the day Wednesday and Thursday, firing off along lake and sea breeze boundaries. Areal coverage will probably increase a little bit on Friday, but still not much more than 30 to 40 percent at best. High temperatures are expected to top out in the middle 90s for the back half of next week, with heat index values in the 105 to 110 range. (RW) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Mostly VFR conditions through the cycle. Convection this afternoon will likely remain over the eastern terminals (GPT). However, later tonight and early Sunday convection will be possible for most terminals outside of MCB. In convection expect brief reductions to MVFR or maybe lower in the strongest convection. Otherwise, southwesterly winds will increase this afternoon and decrease once we decouple after sunset tonight. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 High pressure located over the southeastern Gulf will keep west to southwesterly flow in place across the coastal waters for the next several days, though a weak cold front may briefly result in offshore flow Sunday. A tighter pressure gradient will cause winds to strengthen to 15 to 20 knots through the weekend across most of the waters and a small craft advisory may be needed for a short period Sunday. The front will provide a focus for scattered to numerous showers and storms, mainly Sunday into Monday as it becomes stationary near the coast or over the northern Gulf and washes out. By the second half of the workweek, winds will become more southeasterly as the local area becomes located more on the western periphery of the surface high. Seas will generally build 2 to 4 feet nearshore and 3 to 5 feet offshore in response to the stronger winds Saturday through Sunday night, but will otherwise be in the 1 to 3 feet range. Locally higher winds and seas will also be possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorms. (Frye) && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ532-534>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ534>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1274031 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:39 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 622 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Aviation section was updated for the 12z TAF cycle. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) There is risk for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding across Southeast Georgia into the western South Carolina Lowcountry this afternoon and evening. A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible. - 2) Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will bring the potential for heavy rainfall, localized flooding, and/or gusty winds Sunday through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: There is risk for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding across Southeast Georgia into the western South Carolina Lowcountry this afternoon and evening. A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible. The upper flow will become increasingly cyclonic through the day as a powerful upper low digging across Mid-Mississippi Valley propagates into the western Ohio Valley by tonight. At the surface, a weak warm front extending across parts of the Lowcountry into the Midlands will meander north through the day placing all of Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia solidly within the warm sector of the maturing cyclone associated with the upper low. A few morning showers could brush parts of the lower South Carolina coast through daybreak, but the better chances or showers/tstms will hold off until later this afternoon and evening as the sea breeze moves inland and potent shortwave energy approaches from the northwest. Forcing with this feature coupled with modest instability will support scattered to numerous showers/tstms by mid-late afternoon with activity likely concentrating across much of Southeast Georgia into the far western South Carolina Lowcountry by early evening. PWATs are forecast to surge to 2.35-2.50" which will be near daily maximums for 1 August per SPC sounding climatology. While 850-200 hPa flow will remain out of the southwest at around 10 kt suggests storm motions should remain somewhat progressive, mesoscale boundary collisions will likely augment the steering environment somewhat with the potential for training and/or back-building increasing with time as CAPE profiles elongate and narrow (a classic heavy rain signature). Given the near record net moisture values, impressive hourly rainfall rates will likely occur with the 01/00z HREF and REFS both suggesting localized amounts in excess of 3-4"/3-hr are possible (neighborhood probabilities for >3" running 30-50%), mainly across interior portions of Southeast Georgia into Allendale and Hampton Counties in Southeast South Carolina. This could lead to pockets of flash flooding even with fairly high 1-hr and 3-hr flash flood guidance values in place. The need for a Flood Watch for the above mentioned areas was considered, but the decision was made to hold off given the degree of flash flooding should remain fairly isolated and likely limited to the base- level category. Coordinated with WPC to introduce a slight risk across the far interior areas through tonight for the Day 1 WFO excessive rainfall guidance. Right now, the corridor of heaviest rains look to remain west of both the Charleston and Savannah Metro areas. In addition to the risk for heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding, a strong to marginally severe tstm could occur just about anywhere this afternoon and evening where updrafts can become enhanced, most likely near mesoscale boundary collisions. Convection should wane during the evening hours, but there are signals that a secondary wave could spread north through the region early Sunday morning and more shortwave energy approaches and interacts with a continued very moist and unstable atmosphere. KEY MESSAGE 2: Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will bring the potential for heavy rainfall, localized flooding, and/or gusty winds Sunday through early next week. As a mid-level trough settles over the eastern CONUS Sunday, a cold front will inch toward the forecast area Sunday into Monday before stalling. This pattern, combined with a very moist airmass, will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day through early next week. Forecast soundings indicate PWAT values increasing to around 2.2 inches by Sunday morning and remaining between 2.2 and 2.4 inches through Monday and possibly Tuesday. These conditions will favor efficient rainfall production and high rainfall rates, increasing the potential for localized flooding. While most flooding impacts should remain minor, repeated heavy downpours or training convection over urban areas such as the Charleston and Savannah metro areas could warrant Flood Advisories or Flash Flood Warnings. With regards to the severe potential, the primary limiting factor will be modest instability, with forecast soundings suggesting SBCAPE peaking near 1500 J/kg as widespread cloud cover limits diurnal heating. Despite this, the combination of deep moisture and forcing aloft as lobes of vorticity rotate around the upper trough, should support at least scattered thunderstorms, with the strongest cells capable of producing isolated damaging wind gusts. Sunday appears to have the greatest threat for isolated strong to severe storms due to the proximity of the approaching front providing an additional source of forcing, but also increasing shear values to around 15 kt. This could could allow some storms to become somewhat organized, especially inland. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 01/12z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI: VFR should prevail for much of the 12z TAF period, trending to MVFR prior to daybreak Sunday The risk for showers/tstms should generally remain west of both terminals this afternoon/evening, but could get close enough to justify a PROB30 at KCHS from roughly 19-21z until the sea breeze can push farther to the west. A secondary around of showers/tstms will move in from the south prior to daybreak Sunday, which could produce MVFR conditions. A PROB30 group was introduced 09-12z at both KCHS and KJZI to address possibility. KSAV: VFR this morning with an increasing risk for tstm impacts by mid-afternoon. A TEMPO group for MVFR conditions in TSRA were introduced 21-00z. Conditions could certainly end up lower to IFR or even LIFR levels at times, but pinning that down this far out is nearly impossible. Conditions were limited to MVFR for now. In addition, gusty winds could accompany the tstms, but to what degree is uncertain. Further refinements will mostly certainly be made as the day progress and short term trends become more apparent. A secondary around of showers/tstms will move in from the south prior to daybreak Sunday, which could produce MVFR conditions. A PROB30 group was introduced 09-12z at both KCHS and KJZI to address possibility. Extended Aviation Outlook: Periodic flight restrictions are expected in showers and thunderstorms through early next week. Locally heavy rainfall may produce brief IFR or lower visibility restrictions. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: There are no concerns. South to southeast winds this morning will persist today, then become more south to southwest tonight. Winds will remain 15 kt or less today, then increase to 15 kt to 15-20 kt tonight as nocturnal surging takes hold. Seas 1-3 ft today will build to 2-4 ft tonight. Sunday through Thursday: The pressure gradient will strengthen Sunday as broad low pressure develops inland with an approaching front and high pressure remaining in the Atlantic. Southwesterly winds will increase during the afternoon, with frequent gusts between 25 and 30 kt expected across the local waters. In addition, wave heights are forecast to increase to 4 to 7 feet Sunday evening. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the nearshore marine zones out to 20 nm and the outer Georgia waters from 20-60 nm, as well as the Charleston Harbor. Conditions should gradually improve Monday night, with benign wind and sea conditions expected for Tuesday through the rest of the period. Rip Currents: Gusty southwest winds combined with a 7 to 8 second swell will support an elevated rip current risk on Sunday. A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents has been posted for the South Carolina beaches, and a similar risk may eventually be needed along the southeast Georgia coast. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: August 1: KCHS: 81/1999 KCXM: 86/1999 KSAV: 79/2020 August 2: KCHS: 79/2022 KCXM: 84/1999 KSAV: 80/1886 August 5: KCHS: 79/1980 KCXM: 82/1991 KSAV: 80/1883 August 6: KCHS: 79/1991 KCXM: 82/2006 KSAV: 80/1899 August 7: KCHS: 79/2007 KCXM: 83/2007 KSAV: 80/1879 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ340. Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ360-362. Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ364. Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to noon EDT Monday for AMZ384. && $$ |
| #1274030 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:48 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 540 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Light and variable winds will persist through this afternoon. - A more active weather pattern develops by early next week with higher rain chances and increasing southeasterly winds. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 540 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Another night of shower-free KBYX radar. While the Atlantic surface ridge continues to dominate our weather not much has changed in the last 24 hours. Winds along the Reef are light and variable. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s. Today we can expect similar conditions to continue though off the Upper Keys there could be another slight freshening of breezes in the afternoon. Waterspout formation is possible again if a cloud line is able to develop from the light and variable winds. Early this week the mid level trough will still be in place over the southeast and in the Gulf waters though mid level ridging will attempt to push back in the region. Surface high in the western Atlantic will result in winds becoming more easterly to southeasterly and slightly freshening around Monday. Moisture will move into the area and rain chances will gradually increase this week though models are suggesting higher than what we have advertised. Easterly winds will continue through a majority of the week and rain chances will peak on Wednesday through Thursday. Thereafter, mostly sunny skies will return with near normal rain chances. && .MARINE... Issued at 540 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, weak nebulous flow with light to gentle breezes will continue as the western periphery of an Atlantic surface ridge slides westward across the Keys putting the coastal waters in a col region. As high pressure strengthens in the North Atlantic, southeast breezes will freshen by the second half of the weekend and into early next week. In addition, rain chances will also be increasing by next week as deeper moisture spreads into the region ahead of a frontal boundary approaching northern Florida. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Limited shower development is expected today therefore no mention of VCSH at either terminal. Near surface winds will be light and variable through the afternoon. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274029 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:33 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 428 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Bay for this afternoon into tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly dry weather, slightly below average temperatures, and lower humidity to start the weekend. 2) A typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week, with near average temperatures and increasing shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 243 AM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry weather, slightly below average temperatures, and lower humidity today ahead of an unsettled period. Low pressure is slowly drifting off the Northeast coast, with a weak surface high across the local area this morning. Generally light southerly winds and temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s are being observed across the area. Satellite imagery is highlighting upper-level cirrus spreading across the East Coast that is emanating off of another low pressure system centered across Illinois. This trough will be one of the focal points for weather in the coming days, but dry conditions will continue today. Upper heights are forecast to build a bit as the ridge and aforementioned surface high nudge offshore and the low-level flow southerly flow begins to increase. Highs near 90F with afternoon dew points rising into the mid-upper 60s will make for a slightly more humid, warmer day than we have seen the past few days. KEY MESSAGE 2....A more typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week, with near average temperatures and increasing shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing through early next week. The pattern becomes more unsettled by Sunday will continue into early next week as a slow moving upper-level trough approaches from the west. At the same time, a weak cold front approaches from the north, but will remain north of the local area through Monday (and likely wash out by Tue). With the approaching trough and Bermuda high pressure well offshore, deep-layered S to SW flow will prevail. This will allow rich Gulf moisture to overspread the area on Sunday and remain over us early next week. PWs surge from a comfortable 1- 1.4" on Saturday to 2.2-2.4" by late Sunday/Sunday night. Scattered to potentially numerous showers/tstms are expected Sunday. The highest precip chances will initially be across south-central VA during the afternoon (as the deep moisture arrives here first). Showers and tstms should gradually spread NE through the evening (though it may very well remain dry near the immediate coast and on the eastern shore). Showers/tstms are likely across the entire area on Monday as a lead shortwave potentially tracks over the area. Monday appears to be the day with the highest convective coverage during the period. The trough dampens a bit from Tuesday/Wednesday, but scattered showers and tstms are still expected during the aftn/evening on both days as weak SW flow aloft continues and deep moisture remains nearby. Given the environment and relatively weak unidirectional flow aloft and tall/skinny CAPE, there will be a threat of localized flash flooding each day, but the severe threat should remain relatively low with these storms. Temperatures dip down slightly below average during the early week period thanks to the cloud cover and multiple rounds of rain. Though not quite as unsettled as the first half of the week, the latter half of the week will see isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. With the decreased coverage forecast, temperatures will return to near to slightly above normal with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 150 AM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this morning. Light, generally SE-S winds of~5 kts or less are being measured, with increasing upper cirrus moving across the area. Upper cirrus will remain across the remain across the area through this evening, with some FEW-SCT lower level clouds developing later this morning. SE-S winds will continue, but are forecast to increase to 6-10 kts. Outlook: VFR/dry Saturday night through Sunday morning as high pressure settles offshore. Shower/tstm chances return on Sunday and Monday as a slow moving upper trough approaches the area, and linger into Tuesday/Wednesday. Periodic sub-VFR conditions are possible during this time, mainly from early morning stratus, and brief vsby restrictions in heavy rain. && .MARINE... As of 220 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay from this afternoon into the early overnight hours. - Another period of SCA conditions is likely Sunday afternoon into Monday ahead of a weakening cold front. Early morning analysis shows high pressure off the Southeast coast with surface low pressure and cold front noted over the Midwest. Winds over the local waters are generally from the S at 5-10 kt. Waves in the bay are around 1 ft with seas 2 ft. The aforementioned Midwest low will become vertically aligned with an upper closed low today, resulting in only slow movement to the east. Guidance suggests that the gradient between this low and high pressure offshore will tighten sufficiently to result in 15-20 kt SE winds over the Ches Bay from this afternoon through the evening hours. Winds in the tidal rivers, Currituck Sound, and offshore zones are expected to stay below SCA thresholds. Winds are expected to relax back into the 10-15 kt range after midnight. Waves and seas briefly build to 2-3 ft during the enhanced SE flow tonight. The surface low and its associated cold front will translate slowly eastward on Sunday, allowing the pressure gradient to steepen again. Additional SCA headlines are likely Sunday night into Monday for the majority of the local waters. Given a longer duration SW flow event, seas will have more time to build into the 3-6 ft range (0-20nm range, highest N). Farther offshore, seas increase to 5-7 ft for a period late Sunday into Monday. The front is forecast to wash out over inland areas late Monday into Tuesday. Afternoon and evening shower and storm chances return Sunday and linger well into next week with locally higher winds/waves/seas likely to accompany the stronger convection. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634. && $$ |
| #1274028 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:51 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 236 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 234 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - A few storms may produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground lightning. - A High Risk of rip currents is expected through the weekend for all area beaches. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A strong shortwave will move into the Ohio Valley today helping a carve out a trough over the eastern states. This will send a cold front southward toward the area late today into tonight. The front will likely stall along the I-65 corridor on Sunday afternoon before being pushed east on Monday. As the trough and front move into the area, the deeper moisture will be pushed eastward today with some drier air slowly moving into northwest area. As a result, the highest rain chances will be mainly east of I-65. As the front moves in overnight into Sunday, scattered pops are expected across the entire area before moving east of I-65 during the late afternoon. A few storms could produce gusty winds and small hail. however the main threat will be locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. A drier airmass moves across the entire area Monday into Tuesday with upper level ridging builds back into the area, resulting in mostly dry conditions through midweek. Moisture levels return late in the week with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. /13 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Isolated convection will be possible overnight over eastern portions of the area, then isolated to scattered convection is expected on Saturday mainly along/east of the Alabama/Mobile Rivers. MVFR conditions will be possible with the stronger storms, and some patchy overnight fog will be possible over interior areas as well. Light and variable winds overnight become southwesterly 5-10 knots on Saturday, potentially 10-15 knots near the coast. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 235 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Moderate westerly winds become a moderate to occasionally strong southwesterly flow for tonight through Sunday before diminishing Sunday night. Small craft should exercise caution mainly over the open Gulf waters today. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory from 7 pm this evening until 10 am Sunday for the open Gulf waters, which may need to be extended into early Sunday evening if the southwesterly flow maintains a strength near 20 knots. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 93 77 92 72 / 10 40 30 10 Pensacola 91 80 90 77 / 20 60 70 30 Destin 90 81 89 79 / 30 60 80 50 Evergreen 91 74 91 70 / 30 30 30 10 Waynesboro 95 73 91 69 / 10 40 0 0 Camden 91 73 89 70 / 20 60 10 0 Crestview 92 76 90 72 / 40 50 60 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$ |
| #1274026 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:39 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 327 AM AST Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 322 AM AST Sat Aug 1 2026 - A tropical wave will continue to move across the region today, increasing the chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the weekend, which may result in localized flooding and disruptions to outdoor activities. - Choppy seas up to 6 feet will persist through today while up to a moderate risk of rip currents persist through at least Monday. - Low concentrations of Saharan dust will continue through tomorrow evening before increasing to moderate (and possibly high) to start the workweek, this will result in deteriorated air quality and hazy skies - Heat risks will also persist for lower elevation and urban areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through most of the period with significant to elevated levels possible during the workweek. && .Short Term(Today through Monday)... Issued at 322 AM AST Sat Aug 1 2026 Recent satellite observations show Precipitable Water (PWAT) values between 1.5 and 1.7 inches over the islands, with higher amounts of 1.8 to about 2 inches concentrated to the southern waters. Guided by an east-southeast flow, the moisture field from a tropical wave passing south of the islands, combined with an upper-level low situated west-southwest of Puerto Rico, has generated an increase in overnight showers and isolated t-storms across the region. Rainfall accumulations recorded since midnight have affected mainly St. Thomas, St. John, and the eastern third of Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra. Stations show around a quarter of an inch of rain in Culebra, while isolated areas in Puerto Rico received between a quarter and slightly over half an inch. Meanwhile, stations report that overnight low temperatures ranged from the mid- to- upper 70s and low 80s across urban and lower-elevation areas of the islands, dropping into the 60s across higher elevations of Puerto Rico. The moisture field from the above mentioned tropical wave will continue to move northward and filter over the region this morning onwards, increasing rain chances. As this influx of moisture from a tropical wave moves over the islands under an east-southeast flow, high-end normal (1.9 inches) to above-normal (2.0 inches) PWAT values will reach the region. Available moisture will extend into the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Concurrently, 500 mb temperatures are expected to drop to more seasonal levels over the weekend, creating conditions favorable for t-storm development. Showers will continue to be steered towards windward sectors during the period. A limited to elevated flooding risk remains forecast for the region, particularly during afternoon convective showers and t-storms. The areas most susceptible to these impacts include the interior and west-northwestern sections of Puerto Rico, along with potentially downwind of El Yunque and the local islands. Similar conditions are forecast tomorrow, albeit with the upper level low now west of Puerto Rico and the wave axis moving away from the region. However, above-normal moisture continues to filter over the islands under east-southeast flow as a surface high over the Atlantic persists. A limited to elevated flooding threat will persist over interior and west-northwestern Puerto Rico, and possibly downwind of El Yunque and the local islands. Today through tomorrow evening, the islands will see a continuous influx of low Saharan Dust concentrations. A Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is then projected to arrive from the east tomorrow night, elevating Saharan Dust to moderate, or potentially high, concentrations. Expected to last through Monday and into the long-term period, these higher concentrations will cause hazy skies, lower visibilities, and deteriorated air quality. This drier air will result in below normal to normal PWAT values overnight Sunday into Monday while the upper low moves westward and away from the islands. This would leave Monday as the driest day of the short term forecast, nevertheless diurnal heating, local effects and sea breeze convergence will result in afternoon convection over interior to west-northwest PR as east-southeasterly steering flow persists. Breezy conditions are also possible at coastal areas during the period. With increasing moisture and east-southeasterly flow, heat risks will persist during the short term forecast period, with heat indices reaching and surpassing the low 100s during the late mornings to afternoons over urban and lower elevation sectors of the islands, with some relief possible with the above mentioned showers. Heat Advisories could be issued for each late morning to late afternoon; continue to monitor the forecast for updates. && .Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)... Issued at 322 AM AST Sat Aug 1 2026 Excessive heat will remain the primary hazard, with significant heat risk levels possible throughout the long-term period. Saharan dust should also linger into midweek, maintaining hazy skies and reduced air quality. A tropical wave is expected to move across the region early to midweek, increasing shower and isolated thunderstorm activity, with the greatest potential currently anticipated on Wednesday. Despite generally drier conditions during the remainder of the period, diurnal heating and local effects should support afternoon convection each day. Widespread flooding is not anticipated at this time, although locally heavy rainfall could result in ponding of water on roads and in poorly drained areas. Forecast confidence decreases toward the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 322 AM AST Sat Aug 1 2026 Mainly VFR conditions through the period. A tropical wave will continue to result in passing SHRA over the region, with a chance of -TSRA. After 01/13-14Z, E-ESE winds increase to 10 to 18 kts with higher gusts and sea breeze variations, before becoming light with land breezes after 01/23Z. After 01/17Z, SHRA/-TSRA can develop over interior to western PR and downwind of the local islands and El Yunque, affecting TJBQ/TJSJ. This can result in brief MVFR conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 322 AM AST Sat Aug 1 2026 A tropical wave moving across the Caribbean Sea will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms across portions of the regional waters and passages today. Meanwhile, a surface high pressure extending from the central Atlantic will continue to promote moderate to locally fresh trades through next week. Occasional seas up to 6 feet are expected today across the offshore Atlantic and Caribbean waters, and the Anegada and Mona Passages. Seas and winds are expected to remain below small craft advisory criteria through next week. However, locally stronger winds due to the sea breeze are expected each afternoon across the Atlantic and Caribbean coastal waters of Puerto Rico. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 322 AM AST Sat Aug 1 2026 Wind-driven waves will support a moderate risk of rip currents across the northwest to southeastern beaches of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and St. Croix today. A low risk is expected across the western to southern beaches of PR, and most beaches of St. Thomas and St. John through the weekend. Nevertheless, beachgoers should be aware that life-threatening rip currents often occur in the vicinity of groins, jetties, reefs, and piers even when the risk is low. By Tuesday and Wednesday, the risk will become low across all beaches of the islands. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 322 AM AST Sat Aug 1 2026 Minimum relative humidity values should remain near or above critical thresholds today. Influx of moisture during the weekend could aid in improving overall fire weather conditions. However, critically dry fuels persist across southern Puerto Rico and St. Croix, with Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) values remaining well above the critical threshold. East to east-southeast winds are expected to remain above or near the threshold values today, slightly which could promote the rapid spread of any fire that develops. Residents and visitors should avoid outdoor burning and exercise caution with activities that could generate sparks or open flames, especially across areas with critically dry vegetation. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1274025 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:27 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 311 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Numerous TStorms this Weekend through Early Next Week. Strong Storm Potential Each Afternoon and Evening. Daily Rounds of Heavy Downpours May Cause Localized Flooding - Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches on Sunday && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights For Tonight: - Rounds of Showers and Thunderstorms, Isolated Strong Storms Possible - Locally Heavy rainfall and flooding Possible, mainly for I-75 corridor The weak frontal boundary currently just north of the Altamaha river will gradually lift northward today as a warm front ahead of a stronger cold front moving into the SE US. WSW flow strengthens this morning advecting in a more tropical airmass with PWATs of 2+ inches. This will ignite nocturnal convection over Apalachee Bay and the NE Gulf which will shift onshore during the predawn hours progressing into the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor by sunrise. Convection then increases through the day and spreads ENE across NE FL and SE GA later this afternoon into evening. A cluster of upper level disturbances move in from the NW this afternoon and linger over the area tonight allowing for activity to continue well into the night and potentially into Sunday morning. With anomalously high PWATs, ample instability and support from the approaching upper impulses, numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could produce localized flash flooding with a few thunderstorms producing gusty winds of 40-55 mph. WPC has highlighted the I-75 corridor in a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall and a Marginal (level 1 of 4) for the rest of the area for today. Highs will be slightly lower than yesterday in the upper 80s along the I-75 corridor to the low 90s elsewhere. Overnight lows remain in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Rounds of Showers and Thunderstorms, Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible - Locally Heavy rainfall potential into Monday Sunday, the trough will move towards the southern Appalachians into Sunday night, becoming elongated north to south as Atlantic ridge begins to build westward towards the Atlantic waters off the southeast US coast. This will slow the surface front across the deep south just northwest of our area. The squeeze between the two mid to upper level features will yield increasing low level SW flow and tap higher moisture levels into the area with PWATs surging to near daily records of 2.20-2.40 inches. The high moisture, lift and instability ahead of the front will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms focused over the western half of inland NE FL shifting north and eastward into SE GA and the coast through the afternoon hours. Isolated strong to severe storms will develop where storm outflows and cell mergers interact. Widespread totals Sunday of 1 to 3 inches of rain will fall west of I-75 with less rainfall towards the coast, but locally heavier rainfall amounts will be possible with any slow moving or training cells (successive storms moving over the same area) which could lead to flooding in low lying and urban locations. The Weather Prediction Center has a slight risk over the Suwannee Valley of NE FL and a Marginal risk to the the rest of NE FL and SE GA. Breezy SW winds 10-15 mph will prevail Sunday with gusts to 20- 25 mph ahead of storms while more intense storms could produce gusts 40-60 mph. Sunday`s highs will be below normal due to mostly cloudy skies showers and storms, only reaching the mid to upper 80s inland to near 90 at the coast and I-95. Lows will be in the lower 70s inland and the mid 70s along the coast. Monday, the shortwave trough to the north will begin to become a closed, cut off trough across the southern Appalachian mountains While Atlantic high pressure ridging aloft builds into the Bahamas. Breezy south to southwest winds will once again prevail 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph. Shortwave energy from the trough and convergence along the Gulf and Atlantic seabreezes will lead to numerous to widespread thunderstorms in the afternoon. Isolated strong to severe storms Highs will be similar Monday in the upper 80s for NE FL and near 90 across SE GA and the coast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Decreasing Coverage of Thunderstorms by Midweek Tuesday, the closed mid to upper level trough will slowly lift away to the NNE as Atlantic ridging moves across the south and central FL peninsula. This will create a more typical Seabreeze regime of afternoon thunderstorms from Seabreeze interactions with scattered to numerous storms. The SW flow will decrease with Seabreezes merging near US-17 in the afternoon with southeast winds behind the Atlantic seabreeze. Wednesday into Thursday, Atlantic high pressure surface ridge axis will lift into SE GA with flow prevailing from the southeast and favoring a more inland progressing Atlantic seabreeze with scattered afternoon thunderstorms with Gulf/Atlantic seabreezes merging between highway 301 and I-75. Friday, the ridge axis will lift north of the area with easterly flow prevailing across the region and scattered T`storms developing well inland near I-75 Temperatures will begin with highs a little below normal Monday and near normal Tuesday, then inland highs will be above normal Wednesday into Friday with near normal coastal highs in the upper 80s to low 80s due to the onshore southeast to easterly flow. Lows will remain near normal with lows trending above normal in the low 70s inland and mid 70s at the coast with coastal lows warming to the upper 70s by Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Showers and storms linger over the Duval TAF sites for the next hour before dissipating. Light generally southwesterly winds continue in the early morning hours then increase to around 10 kts by 18Z. Southerly winds develop at the coastal TAF sites after 16Z with the pinned Atlantic sea breeze. Waves of showers and storms will move in from the west-southwest beginning at GNV around 15Z then spreading to the rest of the TAF sites between 17-23Z. Have TEMPOs for stronger storms capable of gusty winds and lower VSBYs due to heavy rainfall. && .MARINE... A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary over the Georgia waters today, while high pressure remains situated over the southeastern Gulf. This weather pattern will create a prevailing offshore wind flow, with the afternoon sea breeze shifting winds to southerly in the afternoon and then back to southwesterly overnight. Coverage of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will increase this weekend and early next week as the frontal boundary over the Georgia waters lifts northward as a warm front ahead of another cold front that will be entering the southeastern states. Southwesterly winds will strengthen ahead of this front beginning Sunday morning, with Caution level wind speeds likely and periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions possible through early Monday. Strong storms will be possible each afternoon and evening through Tuesday. Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds this weekend through Monday will likely yield a low to low-end moderate risk at area beaches. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible This Weekend An active pattern will persists today the frontal boundary remains nearly stationary across Southeast Georgia. Southwesterly winds will become breezy 10-15 mph gusting to 20 mph across NE FL with winds a bit less over SE GA 8-12 mph, becoming southeasterly at the coast behind the afternoon Atlantic seabreeze 10-15 mph gusting to 20 mph. A wave of energy aloft and lift along the front and seabreezes will create Numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. The front will lift away as another front approaches from the northwest Sunday and then stall Monday just northwest of the area with numerous to widespread afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day and breezy southwest winds. Locally heavy rainfall is possible this weekend into early next week with widespread rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches west of I-75 and 1-2 inches towards the coast with locally heavier totals possible. Dispersions will be in the good range through the weekend as surface and transport winds increase slightly by Sunday while clouds increase and limit mixing heights. Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected during the next several mornings. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible into the weekend with gusty winds up to 40-60 mph in thunderstorms. In addition, outflows from distant thunderstorms may also produce gusty and erratic winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 91 73 89 73 / 90 60 80 60 SSI 90 76 91 75 / 90 50 80 40 JAX 92 74 89 73 / 70 30 80 30 SGJ 91 74 88 74 / 70 30 70 30 GNV 90 73 85 72 / 70 70 80 60 OCF 89 73 85 73 / 70 50 80 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ450-452-470-472. && $$ |
| #1274024 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:12 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 308 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Decreased rain chances a bit Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Seasonable and mostly dry through Saturday. 2) Warm front/coastal trough moves through Sunday morning, with above average rain chances Sunday into midweek. Marine: SCA conditions likely to develop Sunday into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1..High pressure has shifted offshore, with southerly outherly onshore flow beginning in earnest today. Atmospheric profile to gradually moisten today, although we should still be too dry aloft for any convection to form along the sea breeze. While rain chances are still below 15% today, there should be more cloud cover along and ahead of the sea breeze coinciding with peak heating. Otherwise seasonable temps forecast today as highs reach the upper 80s to near 90s inland, and mid 80s along the coast. KEY MESSAGE 2...ENC once again enters into a period of unsettled weather starting on Sunday. An upper trough will be deepening over the Ohio Valley Sun morning as it moves towards the Eastern Seaboard, while at the surface an associated closed low is expected to traverse the Great Lakes region. As these features move east, they will encounter the Bermuda high which is expected to stall this upper trough, surface low, and its associated fronts before they reach the Eastern Seaboard. While the upper trough stalls, embedded shortwaves rounding the base of the trough are forecast to advect into the Carolinas Sun through at least Mon/Tue. These features, in addition to the sea breeze each afternoon/evening, will be the main forcing present for a notable increase in precip chances. There will be two areas of focus for shower and thunderstorm activity on Sunday. The first will be Sun morning along and behind a N`ward moving warm front/coastal trough with much of the activity occuring near and east of Hwy 17. We should still be too dry aloft inland as the boundary moves through, so thunder chances remain low inland Sunday morning. Proximity to the gulf stream could allow isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to reach coastal communities south of Oregon Inlet. The second will be in the afternoon/evening with shower and thunderstorm activity coming in from the west associated with the stalled upper trough. Cloud cover will play a big role in how high instability can truly get, but with the dewpoints rising there should be enough instability entering the region for 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE Sunday. While shear is not too impressive with the unidirectional SE flow, the combination of long, skinny CAPEs, PWATs over 2", and slow storm motions could result in heavy rainfall rates and wet microbursts where storms develop. The best coverage is expected to be to our west closer to I-95, with more isolated to scattered coverage hinted at by CAMs along our coastal plain. As a result, have trended down a tad with PoPs Sunday PM with this update. Further reductions to PoPs may be necessitated with future updates if this trend holds. Monday the trough is still stalled to our west and gradually weakens. This reduces the potential for height falls over the region despite the trough creeping a bit closer. Still, we should see some weak embedded shortwaves moving through aloft. Slightly better forcing, paired with another day of long skinny CAPEs and PWATs north of 2" brings higher precip chances compared to Sunday with heavy rainfall rates and a low end wet microburst threat and slow storm motion vectors. All this brings flash flooding concerns to mind, especially with how much rain has been observed in many locations in the past 1-2 weeks. We are currently in a Marginal (level 1/5) Excessive Rain Outlook for Sunday. What prevents it from being higher is likely the uncertainty on instability with antecedent cloud cover and the lack of substantial ground-level forcing. With high temps forecast to only be in the low to mid 80s Monday, the sea breeze may be weak in nature. Beyond Monday, the trough/low is still expected to linger to our west until eventually it gets picked up and shifted to our north by another trough moving through the Great Lakes region. As a result, daily elevated precip chances continue through mid-week with a low end risk for flash flooding. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Pred VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with mainly diurnal Cu through peak heating. Another morning with calm winds and clear skies allowing for good radiational cooling but HREF and REFS probs for vsbys less than 5SM continue to show less than 15 percent during the pre-dawn hours. Given there hasn`t been fog the past couple of nights it likely will not materialize. S to SW winds will be a bit stronger this afternoon with gusts around 15-20 kt possible. Periods of MVFR may develop early Sunday morning as a warm front/coastal trough moves through the region. Coastal regions could see isolated to scattered thunderstorms Sunday morning along and behind the coastal trough. Outlook (Sunday through Wednesday):Periods of sub-VFR may develop Sun into early next week as ENC enters into a more unsettled period of weather with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms with a stalled upper trough off to the west. Precip chances and thus the threat for sub- VFR conditions look to decrease beyond Wed. && .MARINE... Benign boating conditions continue across our waters today as latest obs show widespread southerly 5-10 kt winds and 2-3 ft seas. Winds strengthen to 10-20 knots through tonight, shifting from SE`rly this evening to S`rly early Sunday morning behind a coastal trough/warm front. As wind increas, seas build to 3-4 ft tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms likely starting early Sunday morning along and behind the front. Outlook (Sunday through Wed): Southerly winds will strengthen Sunday to 15-25 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts ahead of an approaching front. Seas will also respond building closer to 4-7 ft across the coastal waters bringing an increasing chance of SCA conditions to much of our waters Sun into Mon. In addition to this, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms will be possible as well starting Sun. Winds/Seas begin to ease later Mon night into Tue with weak high pressure building overhead and aforementioned front dissipating to the west. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1274023 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:54 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 243 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Bay for this afternoon into tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly dry weather, slightly below average temperatures, and lower humidity to start the weekend. 2) A typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week, with near average temperatures and increasing shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 243 AM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry weather, slightly below average temperatures, and lower humidity today ahead of an unsettled period. Low pressure is slowly drifting off the Northeast coast, with a weak surface high across the local area this morning. Generally light southerly winds and temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s are being observed across the area. Satellite imagery is highlighting upper-level cirrus spreading across the East Coast that is emanating off of another low pressure system centered across Illinois. This trough will be one of the focal points for weather in the coming days, but dry conditions will continue today. Upper heights are forecast to build a bit as the ridge and aforementioned surface high nudge offshore and the low-level flow southerly flow begins to increase. Highs near 90F with afternoon dew points rising into the mid-upper 60s will make for a slightly more humid, warmer day than we have seen the past few days. KEY MESSAGE 2....A more typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week, with near average temperatures and increasing shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing through early next week. The pattern becomes more unsettled by Sunday will continue into early next week as a slow moving upper-level trough approaches from the west. At the same time, a weak cold front approaches from the north, but will remain north of the local area through Monday (and likely wash out by Tue). With the approaching trough and Bermuda high pressure well offshore, deep-layered S to SW flow will prevail. This will allow rich Gulf moisture to overspread the area on Sunday and remain over us early next week. PWs surge from a comfortable 1- 1.4" on Saturday to 2.2-2.4" by late Sunday/Sunday night. Scattered to potentially numerous showers/tstms are expected Sunday. The highest precip chances will initially be across south-central VA during the afternoon (as the deep moisture arrives here first). Showers and tstms should gradually spread NE through the evening (though it may very well remain dry near the immediate coast and on the eastern shore). Showers/tstms are likely across the entire area on Monday as a lead shortwave potentially tracks over the area. Monday appears to be the day with the highest convective coverage during the period. The trough dampens a bit from Tuesday/Wednesday, but scattered showers and tstms are still expected during the aftn/evening on both days as weak SW flow aloft continues and deep moisture remains nearby. Given the environment and relatively weak unidirectional flow aloft and tall/skinny CAPE, there will be a threat of localized flash flooding each day, but the severe threat should remain relatively low with these storms. Temperatures dip down slightly below average during the early week period thanks to the cloud cover and multiple rounds of rain. Though not quite as unsettled as the first half of the week, the latter half of the week will see isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. With the decreased coverage forecast, temperatures will return to near to slightly above normal with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 150 AM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this morning. Light, generally SE-S winds of~5 kts or less are being measured, with increasing upper cirrus moving across the area. Upper cirrus will remain across the remain across the area through this evening, with some FEW-SCT lower level clouds developing later this morning. SE-S winds will continue, but are forecast to increase to 6-10 kts. Outlook: VFR/dry Saturday night through Sunday morning as high pressure settles offshore. Shower/tstm chances return on Sunday and Monday as a slow moving upper trough approaches the area, and linger into Tuesday/Wednesday. Periodic sub-VFR conditions are possible during this time, mainly from early morning stratus, and brief vsby restrictions in heavy rain. && .MARINE... As of 220 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay from this afternoon into the early overnight hours. - Another period of SCA conditions is likely Sunday afternoon into Monday ahead of a weakening cold front. Early morning analysis shows high pressure off the Southeast coast with surface low pressure and cold front noted over the Midwest. Winds over the local waters are generally from the S at 5-10 kt. Waves in the bay are around 1 ft with seas 2 ft. The aforementioned Midwest low will become vertically aligned with an upper closed low today, resulting in only slow movement to the east. Guidance suggests that the gradient between this low and high pressure offshore will tighten sufficiently to result in 15-20 kt SW winds over the Ches Bay from this afternoon through the evening hours. Winds in the tidal rivers, Currituck Sound, and offshore zones are expected to stay below SCA thresholds. Winds are expected to relax back into the 10-15 kt range after midnight. Waves and seas briefly build to 2-3 ft during the enhanced SW flow tonight. The surface low and its associated cold front will translate slowly eastward on Sunday, allowing the pressure gradient to steepen again. Additional SCA headlines are likely Sunday night into Monday for the majority of the local waters. Given a longer duration SW flow event, seas will have more time to build into the 3-6 ft range (0-20nm range, highest N). Farther offshore, seas increase to 5-7 ft for a period late Sunday into Monday. The front is forecast to wash out over inland areas late Monday into Tuesday. Afternoon and evening shower and storm chances return Sunday and linger well into next week with locally higher winds/waves/seas likely to accompany the stronger convection. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634. && $$ |
| #1274022 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:54 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 248 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All Key Messages and sections were changed. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) There is risk for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding across Southeast Georgia into the western South Carolina Lowcountry this afternoon and evening. A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible. - 2) Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will bring the potential for heavy rainfall, localized flooding, and/or gusty winds Sunday through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: There is risk for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding across Southeast Georgia into the western South Carolina Lowcountry this afternoon and evening. A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible. The upper flow will become increasingly cyclonic through the day as a powerful upper low digging across Mid-Mississippi Valley propagates into the western Ohio Valley by tonight. At the surface, a weak warm front extending across parts of the Lowcountry into the Midlands will meander north through the day placing all of Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia solidly within the warm sector of the maturing cyclone associated with the upper low. A few morning showers could brush parts of the lower South Carolina coast through daybreak, but the better chances or showers/tstms will hold off until later this afternoon and evening as the sea breeze moves inland and potent shortwave energy approaches from the northwest. Forcing with this feature coupled with modest instability will support scattered to numerous showers/tstms by mid-late afternoon with activity likely concentrating across much of Southeast Georgia into the far western South Carolina Lowcountry by early evening. PWATs are forecast to surge to 2.35-2.50" which will be near daily maximums for 1 August per SPC sounding climatology. While 850-200 hPa flow will remain out of the southwest at around 10 kt suggest storm motions should remain somewhat progressive, mesoscale boundary collisions will likely augment the steering environment somewhat with the potential for training and/or back-building increasing with time as CAPE profiles elongate and narrow (a classic heavy rain signature). Given the near record net moisture values, impressive hourly rainfall rates will likely occur with the 01/00z HREF and REFS both suggesting localized amounts in excess of 3-4"/3-hr are possible (neighborhood probabilities for >3" running 30-50%), mainly across interior portions of Southeast Georgia into Allendale and Hampton Counties in Southeast South Carolina. This could lead to pocket of flash flooding even with fairly high 1-hr and 3-hr flash flood guidance values in place. The need for a Flood Watch for the above mention areas was considered, but the decision was made to hold off given the degree of flash flooding should remain fairly isolated and likely limited to the base-level category. Coordinated with WPC to introduce a slight risk across the far interior areas through tonight for the Day 1 WFO excessive rainfall guidance. Right now, the corridor of heaviest rains look to remain west of both the Charleston and Savannah Metro areas. In addition to the risk for heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding, a strong to marginally severe tstm could occur just about anywhere this afternoon and evening where updrafts can become enhanced, most likely near mesoscale boundary collisions. Convection should wane during the evening hours, but there are signals that a secondary wave could spread north through the region early Sunday morning and more shortwave energy approaches and interacts with a continued very moist and unstable atmosphere. KEY MESSAGE 2: Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will bring the potential for heavy rainfall, localized flooding, and/or gusty winds Sunday through early next week. As a mid-level trough settles over the eastern CONUS Sunday, a cold front will inch toward the forecast area Sunday into Monday before stalling. This pattern, combined with a very moist airmass, will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day through early next week. Forecast soundings indicate PWAT values increasing to around 2.2 inches by Sunday morning and remaining between 2.2 and 2.4 inches through Monday and possibly Tuesday. These conditions will favor efficient rainfall production and high rainfall rates, increasing the potential for localized flooding. While most flooding impacts should remain minor, repeated heavy downpours or training convection over urban areas such as the Charleston and Savannah metro areas could warrant Flood Advisories or Flash Flood Warnings. With regards to the severe potential, the primary limiting factor will be modest instability, with forecast soundings suggesting SBCAPE peaking near 1500 J/kg as widespread cloud cover limits diurnal heating. Despite this, the combination of deep moisture and forcing aloft as lobes of vorticity rotate around the upper trough, should support at least scattered thunderstorms, with the strongest cells capable of producing isolated damaging wind gusts. Sunday appears to have the greatest threat for isolated strong to severe storms due to the proximity of the approaching front providing an additional source of forcing, but also increasing shear values to around 15 kt. This could could allow some storms to become somewhat organized, especially inland. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 01/06z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI: MVFR cigs have briefly impacted both terminals over the past few hours. These should remain fairly brief and transient through daybreak, so prevailing VFR was maintained. A few showers could get close to KJZI through 12z. VCSH was introduced to account for this. VFR should prevail for the remainder of the 06z TAF period. The risk for showers/tstms should generally remain west of both terminals this afternoon/evening, but could get close enough to justify a PROB30 at KCHS from roughly 19-21z until the sea breeze can push farther to the west. KSAV: VFR this morning with an increasing risk for tstm impacts by mid-afternoon. A TEMPO group for MVFR conditions in TSRA were introduced 21-00z. Conditions could certainly end up lower to IFR or even LIFR levels at times, but pinning that down this far out is nearly impossible. Conditions were limited to MVFR for now. In addition, gusty winds could accompany the tstms, but to what degree is uncertain. Further refinements will mostly certainly be made as the day progress and short term trends become more apparent. Extended Aviation Outlook: Periodic flight restrictions are expected in showers and thunderstorms through early next week. Locally heavy rainfall may produce brief IFR or lower visibility restrictions. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: There are no concerns. South to southeast winds this morning will persist today, then become more south to southwest tonight. Winds will remain 15 kt or less today, then increase to 15 kt to 15-20 kt tonight as nocturnal surging takes hold. Seas 1-3 ft today will build to 2-4 ft tonight. Sunday through Thursday: The pressure gradient will strengthen Sunday as broad low pressure develops inland with an approaching front and high pressure remaining in the Atlantic. Southwesterly winds will increase during the afternoon, with frequent gusts between 25 and 30 kt expected across the local waters. In addition, wave heights are forecast to increase to 4 to 7 feet Sunday evening. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the nearshore marine zones out to 20 nm and the outer Georgia waters from 20-60 nm, as well as the Charleston Harbor. Conditions should gradually improve Monday night, with benign wind and sea conditions expected for Tuesday through the rest of the period. Rip Currents: Gusty southwest winds combined with a 7 to 8 second swell will support an elevated rip current risk on Sunday. A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents has been posted for the South Carolina beaches, and a similar risk may eventually be needed along the southeast Georgia coast. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: August 1: KCHS: 81/1999 KCXM: 86/1999 KSAV: 79/2020 August 2: KCHS: 79/2022 KCXM: 84/1999 KSAV: 80/1886 August 5: KCHS: 79/1980 KCXM: 82/1991 KSAV: 80/1883 August 6: KCHS: 79/1991 KCXM: 82/2006 KSAV: 80/1899 August 7: KCHS: 79/2007 KCXM: 83/2007 KSAV: 80/1879 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ340. Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ360-362. Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ364. Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to noon EDT Monday for AMZ384. && $$ |
| #1274021 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:54 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 250 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 220 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Peak heat index values will range between 105 and 110 across most areas this afternoon. A Heat Advisory will be in effect from 11 AM through 6 PM for Broward and Miami Dade County. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorm will develop this afternoon with the highest chances occurring over the Lake region as well as the east coast metro areas. - High rainfall rates will be possible with the stronger storms creating the potential for localized flooding especially across the east coast metro areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A rather deep mid level trough/closed low complex over the Midwest will slowly dig towards the Deep South as today progresses. The mid level low will slowly try to open up heading into Sunday as it slowly pushes southeastward, however, deep troughing will still extend into the Southeast and into the northern Gulf during this time frame. As the main trough axis will remain off to the north of the region, a weak vort max will slowly pass through the Florida Panhandle today before moving across the rest of Northern Florida tonight into Sunday. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary will remain stalled out well off to the north over the Southeast today and this front will eventually wash out heading into tonight. Another frontal boundary will slowly push through the Southeast and towards the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday. South Florida will remain well to the south of the boundary, and therefore, synoptic surface winds will generally remain south to southwesterly both today and Sunday. While a pocket of drier air in the lower to mid levels of the atmospheric column, (between 850 and 550mb), will try to hold on through most of today, the latest forecast model soundings show that this layer will give way to deeper moisture advection especially heading into this afternoon through Sunday. With increasing moisture combined with south to southwesterly wind flow, the east coast sea breeze will remain pinned over the metro areas this afternoon and then again on Sunday. With a rather light steering flow in place, showers and thunderstorms will be relatively slow moving. This, combined with the abundance of moisture pushing into the region will result in the potential for localized flooding especially over the east coast metro areas for both this afternoon and Sunday afternoon as well. Some of the thunderstorm activity will have the potential to become strong and contain gusty winds each afternoon especially over the Lake Region and portions of the east coast metro areas where instability will be maximized during peak diurnal heating. Heat will be a concern throughout the weekend as high temperatures rise into the lower to mid 90s across a good portion of South Florida. Peak heat index values will generally range between 105 and 110 across most of the region this afternoon and then once again on Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 The beginning of the week will feature the rather deep mid level trough still remaining over the Southeast as well as the northern Gulf on Monday. However, the latest global and ensemble guidance suite does show mid level ridging in the western Atlantic trying to push back over the region starting later on Monday and then even more so heading into Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, what is left of the second frontal boundary stalled out over Northern Florida as well as the Northern Gulf on Monday will gradually wash out heading into Tuesday. The western periphery of surface high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will then gradually shift back over the Florida Peninsula for Tuesday and Wednesday. This will create a wind shift allowing for winds to become south southeasterly as Monday progresses, and then slowly becoming easterly moving towards the middle of the week. With the influx of moisture continuing especially through monday, combined with the light south to southwest steering flow in place, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop as the sea breezes push inland. The east coast sea breeze will still remain relatively pinned for one more day on Monday, allowing for the highest chances of convection to remain over the interior as well as the east coast metro areas. With PWAT values generally looking to remain at 2.0 inches or higher during this time frame, heavy downpours and slow moving thunderstorms could continue the potential for localized flooding on Monday. While Tuesday and Wednesday will feature additional shower and thunderstorm development, the highest chances will shift and remain over the interior and southwest Florida each afternoon and evening during this time frame. High temperatures each day through the middle of the week will continue to rise into the lower 90s across most of South Florida. Peak heat index values will still create a heat concern during this time frame as they will range between 105 and 110 each afternoon. Easterly winds remain firmly in place heading into the second half of the week, however, uncertainty rises in the forecast during this time frame as some of the global and ensemble guidance is hinting at the potential for another weak TUTT to make a close pass near the region. This could increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame and it will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. With easterly wind flow remaining in place, the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame will continue to be focused over the interior as well as Southwest Florida. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 220 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Light and variable winds will gradually increase out of the SSW after 15z. These winds will become SSE early this afternoon across the east coast terminals as the sea breeze tries to push inland. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop near the east coast terminals after 18z. Periods of MVFR or IFR will be possible along with gusty and erratic winds in and around thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A gentle to moderate south to southwesterly wind flow will continue across most of the local waters through the weekend. These winds will gradually shift and become more southeasterly as the early portion of next week progresses. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the weekend and into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 79 92 80 / 40 30 40 10 West Kendall 93 76 92 77 / 30 20 40 10 Opa-Locka 95 79 93 80 / 40 30 40 20 Homestead 93 79 92 80 / 30 20 40 10 Fort Lauderdale 92 79 91 80 / 50 30 40 20 N Ft Lauderdale 93 80 91 80 / 50 30 50 20 Pembroke Pines 94 80 92 81 / 40 30 40 20 West Palm Beach 93 77 92 78 / 70 30 60 30 Boca Raton 92 79 91 79 / 60 30 50 30 Naples 91 79 91 79 / 20 20 40 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ071>074-172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274019 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:42 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 135 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 135 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast on Sunday with gusty winds and locally heavy rain being the primary threats. A few storms could become strong to severe resulting in damaging wind gusts and localized flooding. Anyone with outdoor plans for Sunday should stay weather aware and have a plan for where to take shelter if thunderstorms affect their location. - Slightly drier air will move into the area to start next week, leading to temporary relief from the recent heat through the first half of the workweek. By the second half of the week, moisture will return to the area, with heat index values possibly reaching hazardous levels again by Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Overall, the trend again for another day is rather on the dry side when compared to the forecast a couple of days ago. Upstream we are watching a fairly robust upper level trough dig across the Mid MS River Valley, which will allow for an ULL to drop southward into the Tennessee River Valley through the weekend and into early next week. Up stream we continue to watch a front over the Red River Valley, which should settle across the region later tonight. Although today looks a bit lackluster in terms of QPF, a nonzero convective chance will be there with the highest POPs residing over the MS Gulf Coast. Rain chances do increase overnight as the front begins to set up along the coast. However, given this isn`t the best opportunity over land, POPs are a bit more modest than others during the afternoon hours. That said, with the diurnal cycle, there will be some night time showers and storms over the Gulf waters. Drier air begins to filter southward behind the front to start the new workweek. This will help limit "feels like" temperatures and no heat headlines look to be needed through the short term period. Sadly, this will keep any precip chances fairly limited and mostly offshore through the period. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 By Tuesday evening, a longwave trough will be over much of Canada, while the upper ridge will be centered near Las Vegas with an upper trough from the upper Ohio River Valley to the Mississippi-Alabama coast. At the surface, a weak front may be close to Interstate 20, while high pressure is over much of the Gulf. Precipitable water values Tuesday evening will be around the 25th percentile (1.6 inches), and with low level flow becoming southerly, but very weak, those moisture levels won`t really start to increase until the end of the week. By Friday, moisture will be around 2 inches, which is closer to the 75th percentile. Probably will not be much more than isolated convection during the heat of the day Wednesday and Thursday, firing off along lake and sea breeze boundaries. Areal coverage will probably increase a little bit on Friday, but still not much more than 30 to 40 percent at best. High temperatures are expected to top out in the middle 90s for the back half of next week, with heat index values in the 105 to 110 range. (RW) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 VFR conditions through the overnight and into Saturday morning. Winds will gradually increase a bit, especially along the coastal terminals. Otherwise, GPT has the best potential for convection Saturday afternoon...covered with PROBs for now. Brief reductions and gusty winds will be possible in and around convection during the afternoon. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 High pressure located over the southeastern Gulf will keep west to southwesterly flow in place across the coastal waters for the next several days, though a weak cold front may briefly result in offshore flow Sunday. A tighter pressure gradient will cause winds to strengthen to 15 to 20 knots through the weekend across most of the waters and a small craft advisory may be needed for a short period Sunday. The front will provide a focus for scattered to numerous showers and storms, mainly Sunday into Monday as it becomes stationary near the coast or over the northern Gulf and washes out. By the second half of the workweek, winds will become more southeasterly as the local area becomes located more on the western periphery of the surface high. Seas will generally build 2 to 4 feet nearshore and 3 to 5 feet offshore in response to the stronger winds Saturday through Sunday night, but will otherwise be in the 1 to 3 feet range. Locally higher winds and seas will also be possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorms. (Frye) && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274020 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:42 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 229 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - A Flood Watch is in effect for southern parts of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend this morning through Monday afternoon. Widespread rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with localized amounts up to 8 to 10 inches are possible through Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday Night) Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Showers and thunderstorms through the weekend will be the main focus for this term. An upper level trough will be extending southward with a cold front heading towards the SE U.S. bringing a high chance for rain and thunderstorms that could produce totals of several inches. The setup is conducive for the coastal regions to receive the most rainfall as we will have southwest flow bringing in moisture from the Gulf with the frontal boundary settling across the Tri-State region. Forecast PWATs will range from 2.2-2.5", indicating the potential for heavy rainfall. Fortunately, environmental factors are not showing an increased risk for any severe weather however, storms could still produce isolated damaging wind gusts. Guidance starts with showers and thunderstorms developing along the Emerald Coast this morning prior to daybreak. These storms may hug along the coastal region for several hours, leading to the potential of nuisance and/or flash flooding. As the day progresses, the showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous and spread eastwards and inland. The overall system, being pushed eastward by the front and upper-level trough will continue through Monday bringing several rounds of rain to the region. The WPC has highlighted much of the area in a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall for today (Saturday) and covers the Panhandle/Big Bend region through Sunday and hence a Flood Watch has been issued for the coastal communities of the FL Panhandle and Big Bend through Monday afternoon for the potential of receiving 3-6 inches of rain with locally higher amounts of up to 8-10 inches possible through Monday. More info is discussed in the Hydrology section. Temperatures for the Short term will be in the mid to upper 80s for the afternoon highs thanks to the abundant cloud cover and rain. Overnight lows will be in the low-mid 70s, and humid. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 For the start of the Long Term, the upper level trough will begin to lift and shift eastward, lowering our rain/thunderstorm chances as we head into mid-week. Temperatures will begin to climb back into the mid and upper 90s by the end of the term and overnight lows in the mid-70s with daily PoPs gradually decreasing to about 30-40% each afternoon; a more typical summertime pattern. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 120 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Although convection is on a downward trend currently, development will increase towards dawn through the panhandle and spread north and east with time. Each TAF site has SHRA and TSRA based on high res models in addition to timing out impacts through the day. Winds will generally be from the west outside of storms with a few brief gusts around stronger storms. MVFR or high IFR may also accompany heavier convection. SHowers and storms will be on the decrease in coverage in the evening hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected over the marine zones every day. Gusty winds and frequent lightning will accompany these storms. Outside of storms, westerly/southwesterly winds around Cautionary levels can be expected, with possible Advisory level winds beginning Saturday night into Sunday. Seas will be ranging around 3-5 feet for the weekend. For the start of the work week, winds and seas will begin to relax with seas returning to around 2 feet with winds later lessening to around 10-15 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Widespread wetting rains this weekend will keep fire weather concerns at a minimum. Transport winds will remain out of the west to southwest around 10-20 mph through this weekend, then lessening to 5-10 mph for the upcoming work week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 An upper level trough will be sinking southward over the next couple of days, bringing a cold front towards the SE U.S.. Showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front will be plentiful with the assistance of southwesterly flow from the Gulf, increasing PWATs to range from 2.2-2.5" across the region this weekend into the start of next week. Showers and thunderstorms will be most concentrated along the coastal regions in the FL Panhandle and Big Bend. 3-6 inches are forecast with locally higher amounts of up to 8-10 inches are possible through Monday. The WPC has highlighted the entire CWA in a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall for today (Saturday). On Sunday, the Slight risk is reduced to the Florida state line, with a Marginal (level 1 of 4) for our AL and GA counties. The system begins to move out of the area on Monday with the Big Bend region in a Marginal risk. The potential for flash flooding is is increased in these areas over the next few days, hence a Flood Watch is in effect from early this morning (5 AM EDT / 4 AM CDT) through Monday afternoon. Rivers are in good condition at the moment. However, a few coastal rivers may see rises depending on where the rain ultimately falls. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 87 74 86 73 / 90 30 90 70 Panama City 88 79 87 77 / 70 60 90 70 Dothan 89 75 89 72 / 80 50 70 50 Albany 89 73 88 73 / 90 50 90 40 Valdosta 91 73 88 72 / 80 30 80 70 Cross City 88 74 85 73 / 90 80 90 80 Apalachicola 86 78 85 77 / 80 50 90 80 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for FLZ012-014-015-027>029- 034-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-426. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274018 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 130 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Major risk of heat-related impacts today with peak heat indices 110 to 115 degrees across the Coastal Plains and high temperatures in the triple digits over interior locations. - Elevated fire weather conditions expected today through early next week over the western Brush country. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms expected on Sunday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A mid-level ridge will continue to control our weather pattern through early next week resulting in hot and dry conditions for the CWA. However, the aforementioned ridge`s eastern flank will weaken due to a strengthening trough in the Ohio Valley resulting in increased moisture filtering into the area. Model guidance is supportive of this as PWAT values are over 2", with isolated spots approaching 2.2". In addition, vorticity in the mid-levels (500 mb) will support the development of showers and thunderstorms over Central Texas this afternoon. Some guidance hints at a broken line of showers entering our northern counties tonight. However, this line looks to be in its decaying stage by the time it reaches our area so will maintain only 15-20% rain chances. Weak low-lvl convergence and moisture pooling nearly the largely-washed out boundary will maintain low-end rain chances through the day on Sunday before drier air moves in for the upcoming workweek and rain chances return to near zero. Due to the influence of the aforementioned mid-level ridge, hot temperatures will prevail through the first week of August. Areas east of Highway 77 have a high chance of highs exceeding 100F through early next week. Today, heat index values will likely exceed 110F over much of the Coastal Plains (even approaching 115 in spots), and therefore a heat advisory has been issued for that region. Although there should be enough mixing of drier air towards the surface over the Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains to keep that region below criteria it will still be quite hot with a largely major (level 3/4) heat risk. This drier air will persist over the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains through most of the period with minimum RH levels dropping below 30% each afternoon. This, coupled with wind gusts between 10-15 kts will allow for an elevated fire risk into early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through a majority of the TAF cycle. Brief MVFR conditions are expected after 09Z through 13Z, mainly for ALI and VCT. CRP site may also see very brief MVFR CIGs. Light winds expected through Saturday morning. Wind speeds expected to be a few knots lower than yesterday, but could still have gusts around 20 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A gentle to moderate onshore (largely S-SE) flow can generally be expected through the forecast period, with occasional fresh winds during the overnight and morning hours. Seas will generally range from 2-4 feet through the forecast period. The only appreciable rain chances in the period will be on Sunday and even then chances will only be around 20%. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Hot temperatures, dry fuels, and low afternoon relative humidity will continue to support periods of elevated fire weather conditions across the Brush Country through early next week. While winds over the western Brush Country will remain relatively light during the afternoons, ERC values will run between the 60th and 75th percentiles and min RHs will dip below 30% each afternoon through early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 97 79 97 78 / 0 10 20 0 Victoria 100 78 100 75 / 0 20 20 10 Laredo 106 82 103 80 / 0 10 10 10 Alice 102 78 100 76 / 0 10 20 10 Rockport 92 81 94 81 / 0 10 10 0 Cotulla 104 82 103 79 / 0 10 20 10 Kingsville 100 78 99 77 / 0 10 20 0 Navy Corpus 90 81 91 81 / 0 10 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ234-241>247-342>344-346-347. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274017 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:36 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 222 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation discussion for the 06z TAFs. No significant forecast changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly dry weather, slightly below average temperatures, and lower humidity to end the week and start the weekend. 2) A typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week, with near average temperatures and increasing shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 PM EDT Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry weather, slightly below average temperatures, and lower humidity to end the week and start the weekend. An upper level trough lingers over New England and Atlantic Canada this afternoon, with another trough over the upper Midwest. This places the Mid-Atlantic region in dry NW flow on the leading flank of an upper ridge. At the surface, weak high pressure is centered over the region. Quite pleasant for the end of July with temperatures in the mid/upper 80s and dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Partly sunny with SCT afternoon CU. Humidity will likely come up a bit this evening, especially near the coast as the flow becomes onshore. One last dry day (but warmer/more humid) on Saturday as upper heights build a bit as the ridge and surface high nudge offshore and the LLVL flow becomes southerly. Highs near 90F w/ aftn dew pts rising into the mid-upper 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2...A typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week with increasing shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing through early next week. The pattern becomes more unsettled late in the weekend into early next week as a slow moving UL trough approaches from the west. At the same time, a weak cold front approaches from the north, but will remain north of the local area through Monday (and likely wash out by Tue). With the approaching trough and Bermuda high pressure well offshore, deep-layered S to SW flow will prevail. This will allow rich Gulf moisture to overspread the area on Sunday and remain over us early next week. PWs surge from a comfortable 1-1.4" on Saturday to 2.2-2.4" by late Sunday/Sunday night. Scattered to potentially numerous showers/tstms are expected Sunday. The highest precip chances will initially be across south-central VA during the aftn (as the deep moisture arrives here first). Showers and tstms should gradually spread NE through the evening (though it may very well remain dry near the immediate coast and on the eastern shore). Showers/tstms are likely across the entire area on Monday as a lead shortwave potentially tracks over the area. Monday appears to be the day with the highest convective coverage during the period. The trough dampens a bit from Tuesday/Wednesday, but scattered showers and tstms are still expected during the aftn/evening on both days as weak SW flow aloft continues and deep moisture remains nearby. Given the environment and relatively weak unidirectional flow aloft and tall/skinny CAPE, there will be a threat of localized flash flooding each day. Temps dip down a little below average during the early week period thanks to the cloud cover and multiple rounds of rain. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 150 AM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this morning. Light, generally SE-S winds of~5 kts or less are being measured, with increasing upper cirrus moving across the area. Upper cirrus will remain across the remain across the area through this evening, with some FEW-SCT lower level clouds developing later this morning. SE-S winds will continue, but are forecast to increase to 6-10 kts. Outlook: VFR/dry Saturday night through Sunday morning as high pressure settles offshore. Shower/tstm chances return on Sunday and Monday as a slow moving upper trough approaches the area, and linger into Tuesday/Wednesday. Periodic sub-VFR conditions are possible during this time, mainly from early morning stratus, and brief vsby restrictions in heavy rain. && .MARINE... As of 220 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay from this afternoon into the early overnight hours. - Another period of SCA conditions is likely Sunday afternoon into Monday ahead of a weakening cold front. Early morning analysis shows high pressure off the Southeast coast with surface low pressure and cold front noted over the Midwest. Winds over the local waters are generally from the S at 5-10 kt. Waves in the bay are around 1 ft with seas 2 ft. The aforementioned Midwest low will become vertically aligned with an upper closed low today, resulting in only slow movement to the east. Guidance suggests that the gradient between this low and high pressure offshore will tighten sufficiently to result in 15-20 kt SW winds over the Ches Bay from this afternoon through the evening hours. Winds in the tidal rivers, Currituck Sound, and offshore zones are expected to stay below SCA thresholds. Winds are expected to relax back into the 10-15 kt range after midnight. Waves and seas briefly build to 2-3 ft during the enhanced SW flow tonight. The surface low and its associated cold front will translate slowly eastward on Sunday, allowing the pressure gradient to steepen again. Additional SCA headlines are likely Sunday night into Monday for the majority of the local waters. Given a longer duration SW flow event, seas will have more time to build into the 3-6 ft range (0-20nm range, highest N). Farther offshore, seas increase to 5-7 ft for a period late Sunday into Monday. The front is forecast to wash out over inland areas late Monday into Tuesday. Afternoon and evening shower and storm chances return Sunday and linger well into next week with locally higher winds/waves/seas likely to accompany the stronger convection. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634. && $$ |
| #1274015 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:33 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 224 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for Sunday through Monday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Wet and unsettled pattern Sunday through at least mid week 2) Strong southerly winds and hazardous marine conditions expected to develop Sunday into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Wet and unsettled pattern Sunday through at least mid week A potent shortwave trough currently over the Upper/Mid MS Valley will track east-southeast into the Ohio and Tn Valley through the weekend before slowing down and potentially closing off over the SE US/southern Appalachians early next week. The system is then expected to linger while gradually weakening through midweek, before finally lifting off to the NE late in the work week. Deep southwesterly moisture transport between this slow moving system and subtropical ridging over the western Atlantic will maintain an axis of anomalously moist air, with PWATs of 2.0- 2.50"(125-1505 of normal), across eastern portions of the Carolinas through much of the period. A northward lifting warm front will provide the initial focus for showers and storms on Sunday, with additional daily rounds of convection Mon-Wed aided by embedded shortwave impulses interacting with seabreeze and upper divergence associated with a jet over the Appalachians. As the trough gradually weakens, convective rain chances should transition to a more typical diurnally driven pattern as anomalous moisture remains in place. This unsettled pattern could provide some much needed drought relief, with widespread rainfall total of 1 to 2 inches expected during the period. Locally higher amounts will be possible where storms repeatedly track over the same area, which could also lead to isolated flooding. Despite widespread cloud cover and generally weak lapse rates, highs in the 80s combined with dew points in the mid to upper 70s should support moderate instability, allowing for an isolated severe threat each day. KEY MESSAGE 2...Strong southerly winds and hazardous marine conditions expected to develop Sunday afternoon and linger through Monday. See marine section below. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Predominately VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon and evening, though a stray afternoon shower or two cannot be ruled out. Strengthening moisture advection ahead of an approaching warm front from the south will support isolated to widely scattered showers Saturday evening into tonight. In addition, increasing low-level moisture may support the development of areas of low stratus near inland TAF sites towards daybreak Sunday. Light SELY winds of 5 to 10 kts will increase slightly by the afternoon, with some gusts up to 15-18 kts possible. Extended Forecast... A slow moving upper trough settling over the region, combined with an anomalously moist airmass, will support periods of showers and storms from Sunday through at least the middle part of next. Periodic sub-VFR restrictions will be possible in heavier showers and thunderstorms. The moist low-level airmass will also support a greater potential for morning stratus each day. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday...Southeast winds gradually increase late this afternoon and veer to southerly Saturday night as a stalled front lifts back to the coast. Winds increase considerably on Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens and the front lifts inland, resulting in breezy south winds with gusts likely to pass SCA criteria Sunday afternoon and likely to continue into Monday. Weak winds will yield benign seas between 1-3 ft through Saturday night. Seas rapidly increase to 4-6 ft as winds increase on Sunday and these continue into Monday before relaxing gradually Monday night and Tuesday. Winds come back down towards a moderate breeze Tuesday and Wednesday, while seas gradually improve to 2-4 ft Tuesday and Wednesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1274014 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:12 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1254 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory in effect for our southern counties (including the City of Houston) this afternoon. - Frontal boundary may bring isolated to widely scattered showers/ storms later today / this evening, though a morning shower is possible in our northern counties. - Forecast has trended hotter for Sunday and especially Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 As of 12AM CDT, there are few things that catch my eye as I write this AFD. Water vapor imagery is currently telling a story of a flow pattern in flux. The ridge that has dominated Texas weather over the last weak is shifting west, with the center of its ridge axis firmly over W CONUS. Meanwhile, a deep low over the Midwest is diving east to southeast, while its trailing cold front extends all the way down into SE Oklahoma and N Texas. The airmass behind the front is also of interest, featuring decreasing dew points and cooler temperatures. Me thinks the falling dew points are in SE TX`s future....the cooler temps not so much. The HRRR continues to insist on a band of showers that develops over our northern counties early this morning. The showers push southward, fizzling out before reaching the I-10 corridor. Some of the other CAMs suggest the presence of an isolated shower or two. There does appear to be plenty of dry air in the 900-700 MB zone. But ML water vapor imagery suggests there is slightly less ML dry air in our northern zones. So I kept some PoPs in the forecast north of I-10 this morning to give the HRRR a little weight in the forecast. We shall see... This aforementioned front should continue its southward push, reaching our neck of the woods by later today or tonight. There`s still some question regarding the timing of the front. Will the front be able to interact with peak daytime heating? Latest guidance suggest it won`t arrive in SE TX until the evening, when daytime heating is being lost. Therefore, the chance of seeing showers/thunderstorms has decreased but has not been eliminated for later today. A veering wind profile ahead of the front will support a modest WAA regime when the air is already quite hot. Forecast peak heat indices from the I-10 counties to the coast are generally 107-110 degrees, warranting the issuance of a Heat Advisory from 1PM to 7PM CDT in our southern zones. There could be a sweet spot that`s just inland enough to limit Gulf influence but also just coastal enough to limit mixing that manages to reach 111-112F. Sunday may feature some showers and isolated storms near the coast and offshore in the morning. Otherwise, much drier air infiltrates the area in the front`s wake. Mid/upper heights will be at their lowest on Sunday, generally supporting a cooler temperature profile. But drier air and the August sun should boost temperatures into the upper 90s to around 100 (low 90s coast). Inland dew points are expected to be well down into the 60s, which should keep heat indices below advisory criteria. The dry air may not make it to the coast. So if you`re in a coastal county, you may remain in the humid soup. But on Monday, the ridge builds back into the region, warming the temperatures profile. With a similar dry LL regime remaining in place, Monday`s actual temperatures cold get quite hot. Right now, we have high temperatures ~100 degrees across most inland areas. But this is technically a little "cooler" than most of the guidance. If forecast temperatures trend another 2-3 degree higher, then we could be approaching Heat Advisory criteria for actual temperatures (103+). The high heat may linger into Tuesday before temperatures attempt to modify down to normal by mid/late week. Self && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 657 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 A weak cold front will attempt to move through the terminals Saturday afternoon, bringing rain and storm chances for most terminals. A few -SHRA are possible near KCLL and KUTS around 11Z- 13Z, with the best chances (20 - 35%) in the afternoon. Confidence in SHRA/TSRA for terminals from IAH coastward is low; therefore, have only included PROB30 from mid afternoon through early evening for this forecast package. Light to occasionally moderate WSW winds will prevail Saturday. Overall, expect SCT to BKN mid to high clouds, with FEW/SCT low clouds possible early Saturday. Outside of any TSRA, VFR conditions can be expected through the period. JM && .MARINE... Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Southwest winds 10-15 knots should gradually increase to 15-20 knots later today into tonight. For Galveston Bay and our eastern Gulf zones, winds may gust to around 25 knots at times. Small vessels should exercise caution later today into tonight. A frontal boundary approaches the area this evening into tonight, possibly resulting in a few showers and thunderstorms tonight into Sunday morning. Westerly winds are expected on Sunday, followed by continued light to moderate south to southwest winds through much of the upcoming week. Winds may become more south-southeast late in the week. Seas should primarily be 2-3 feet, but could build to 4 feet (locally 5ft) Saturday night in our eastern Gulf zones. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 99 77 97 75 / 0 0 40 10 Houston (IAH) 99 79 99 80 / 0 0 20 20 Galveston (GLS) 91 83 94 82 / 0 0 10 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ200-213-214- 226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274013 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 152 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 152 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Additional rounds of showers and storms are forecast through the weekend. Storms may form earlier in the day than usual. Frequent lightning and gusty winds to 40-50 mph will be the primary hazards. - Later today, there is a 5-10% chance of rainfall exceeding 3 inches in less than 2 hours. This may lead to localized flooding of urban and poorly drained areas. - High pressure expands over Florida early next week. However, continued high moisture and sea breeze interactions should keep storm chances elevated, especially over the interior and Lake Okeechobee region. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 152 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 -----------Synoptic Overview----------- Early this morning, water vapor imagery reveals a rather complex upper-air pattern across the U.S. for the first day of August. A pair of shortwaves is keeping a broad dip in the jet stream over the Eastern U.S. The stronger of these two features is currently located near the Quad Cities. Exceptionally stout ridging extends from the Caribbean to the Desert Southwest, where 01/00Z RAOBs returned H5 heights of 601 dam at Flagstaff, AZ and 600 dam at El Paso, TX. Locally, H5 heights exceed 590 dam; warm mid-level temperatures are resulting in poor H7-H5 lapse rates, which is rather typical for the time of year. The energy approaching the Mississippi Valley will soon carve out a longwave trough; it will then move little through Sunday. A weak quasi-stationary front should remain well north of Central Florida. Mean southwesterly flow in the boundary layer maintains rich moisture over the state with PWAT values from 100-130% of normal through at least Monday. Amid subtle height falls, weak vorticity maxima are forecast to rotate around the trough west of Florida, providing forcing for occasional convection. By Monday, the Bermuda High will attempt to retrograde over the W Atlantic, promoting height rises over Florida. As ensemble members weaken the trough over the Tennessee Valley by Tuesday, the near-surface ridge axis is likely to trek north of our latitude by midweek, providing light onshore flow off the Atlantic. Confidence trails off late in the work week and toward next weekend. The 31/12Z grand ensemble and fellow AI members initialized an easterly wave over the Canary Islands. The model suite sends this disturbance westward across the Atlantic, perhaps approaching Florida by late Thursday or Friday. PWAT anomalies clearly show an increase in moisture associated with this feature, but we expect further refinements to the forecast as this disturbance is currently 3800 miles to our east. -------Sensible Weather & Impacts------- This Weekend... Periods of active weather should be expected. Those planning to be outdoors will need to listen for thunder, watch for darkening skies, and find safe shelter when storms threaten! Nocturnal showers and storms extending along the FL Panhandle early this morning suggest a weak disturbance is present. If this is the case, an earlier-than-normal start to showers and storms is on the table for today, perhaps as early as late morning/midday near and northwest of Interstate 4. Relatively weak offshore winds may allow a sea breeze to form and hug the coast. Boundary interactions would support numerous storms near and east of I-95 in the afternoon. Wind gusts to 40-45 mph and frequent lightning will be the primary hazards. There is a 5-10% chance of rainfall totals exceeding 3", especially along the coast. Localized urban flooding is possible where this rainfall occurs over poorly drained areas. Boundary-layer flow increases from Saturday night into Sunday. Additional weak energy approaching N FL is likely to spark overnight showers and storms northwest of our area, and some of this may reach Lake County overnight. This portends another early start to shower and storm chances on Sunday, especially over our northern half. Then, daytime heating will provide an additional spark for storm development over the eastern half of the peninsula. While shear is weak, the enhanced mid-level flow (20-25 kts) will be sufficient for a few stronger storms with wind gusts from 50 to 55 mph. There is a very small chance for a severe gust to around 60 mph. Hot and muggy conditions continue, with highs in the low/mid 90s and heat indices from 100 to 107. Of the two days, today looks slightly hotter. Monday - Tuesday... This still appears to be a transition period for local weather conditions. High pressure will begin to push overhead, weakening background flow just a bit. As that occurs, the sea breeze will begin to move inland each afternoon, with better progression especially by Tuesday. Near- to above-normal moisture values will continue to support scattered to numerous showers and storms (50% to 80%) each day. Seasonably hot temperatures will persist as well, outside of the storms. Wednesday - next Saturday... On Wednesday and Thursday, light onshore flow should finally return, giving us more typical summertime conditions. As the sea breeze pushes inland, a few storms may try to form closer to the coast before concentrating over the interior and points westward. By Friday and Saturday, the easterly wave mentioned in the overview may reach the state. Should this happen, it would provide increased moisture and an uptick in shower/storm opportunities late in the week. While a few deterministic runs have recently shown tropical development with this feature, the GEFS and EPS ensembles are generally unimpressed and favor an open wave/trough as it passes into the W Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center is not expecting tropical cyclone formation over the next 7 days. Continued hot and muggy with highs near normal in the low/mid 90s. && .MARINE... Issued at 152 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 High pressure remains situated south of the local Atlantic this weekend. A nearly-stationary front will stay to the north. Weak to moderate offshore flow persists, but as the sea breeze attempts to form, winds may turn southeasterly in the afternoon near the coast, especially south of Cape Canaveral. Scattered to numerous offshore-moving storms remain the primary hazard for boaters this weekend. Winds freshen some on Sunday, especially in the Gulf Stream. Next week, high pressure will lift slowly northward, with onshore breezes returning by midweek. SW to S winds up to 12 kt today, increasing to 12-18 kt on Sunday. Winds slowly turn out of the SE early next week, up to 12 kt. Seas of 1-2 ft nearshore, except locally 3 ft off of Volusia County on Sunday. Seas reach 3-4 ft in the Gulf Stream north of Cape Canaveral on Sunday and early Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 152 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Mainly quiet through sunrise but isold pop-up SHRA may approach LEE. W/SW flow will continue Sat but slightly weaker than Fri and this may allow the east coast sea breeze to more fully form but inland progress will be slow as it fights the offshore flow. Should see another early start to SHRA/TSRA Sat morning over western FL, spreading east. Have inserted TEMPOs starting at LEE (17Z), then MCO/SFB/DAB at 18Z but initiation could be a bit sooner. With a better chance of a sea breeze south of the Cape, also added TEMPO TS conds for MLB-SUA starting at 19Z-20Z. Gusty winds around 35 knots will accompany the stronger storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 75 88 74 / 80 20 80 20 MCO 92 75 89 75 / 60 30 70 10 MLB 91 75 90 75 / 70 20 60 10 VRB 91 73 91 74 / 70 30 60 10 LEE 89 75 86 75 / 70 50 80 30 SFB 92 76 89 75 / 80 30 70 10 ORL 92 76 89 75 / 70 30 70 10 FPR 91 73 90 74 / 60 30 70 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1274012 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 156 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Introduced a slight chance of showers/t-storms this afternoon though most will stay dry. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry Saturday with a mix of clouds and sun, but there remains a chance for some widely scattered showers or t-storms. - A cold front brings the return of heavy rain and gusty winds Sunday night and Monday, perhaps lingering into Tuesday. - Periodic rain chances will be with us for much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly dry Saturday with a mix of clouds and sun, but there remains a chance for some widely scattered showers or t- storms. A warmer airmass remains overhead thanks to brief mid level ridging. This will continue to deliver highs in the mid to upper 80s Saturday and Sunday. The ridge axis crosses SNE this morning then begins to break down slowly over the next 24-36 hours. For this reason, despite the surface high pressure nearby, introduced a slight chance of rain showers or a thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly over the interior. That being said, the forecast for a mostly dry day persists, with just some widely scattered showers or thunderstorms given a few 1000 J/kg of CAPE. Any convection that does fire up has the potential to induce a quick downpour given PWATs still over 1". For most locations we`ll see a mix of sun and diurnal low level clouds. High clouds will be thickening and lowering through the day ahead of the approaching system. KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front brings the return of heavy rain and gusty winds Sunday night and Monday, perhaps lingering into Tuesday. The mid level ridge continues to break down on Sunday as an anomolous mid-level low digs into the Ohio Valley inducing a deepening surface low which itself very slowly tracks northeast. This wave moves into New England by Monday, accompanied by and preceded by an anomalous subtropical moisture plume with PWATS over 2" (2+SD above normal). Isentropically forced rain arrives by late Sunday evening (west) or Sunday night (east) as warm advection takes hold. The heaviest rainfall rates likely occur on Monday as the cold front advances at the surface. This, combined with forcing for ascent from a 35-45kt LLJ and placement under the RRQ of a 120kt 300mb jet will lead to moderate to heavy rainfall across SNE. Still too soon to say where the heaviest amounts will be or how much, but ensemble guidance is not excited about potential for 2+ inches through Tuesday morning despite some deterministic guidance suggesting it. This will come into focus as we get into range of more high resolution guidance. The previously mentioned LLJ will bring gusty winds on Monday, especially over the Cape/islands and over the waters. KEY MESSAGE 3...Periodic rain chances will be with us for much of next week. Low confidence forecast when it comes to how much, if any, of a break we see in wet weather between the exiting shortwave Monday night/early Tuesday and the next. That being said, no sprawling or persistent high pressure ridge is in the cards so periodic rain chances likely persist. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z TAF Update: Through 12Z: High confidence overall, low on fog coverage. VFR at most terminals, but patchy fog will increase in coverage before dissipating by 13z. Best chance at BDL, BED and ORH. SW winds around 5 kt, becoming light/calm overnight. Saturday: High confidence. VFR. SW winds around 5-10 kt, with seabreezes developing at BOS around 14-15z. Low chance of a shower or thunderstorm 17z-00z. Low clouds/fog dissipated by 13Z. Saturday night:High confidence. VFR to start. MVFR cigs move in after 06z, mainly SFZ-GHG south. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely, chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA. Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Winds and seas below small craft advisory levels through Sunday. Light SW tonight then pick up to around 10-15 kt this afternoon and to 15-20 kt tonight. Seas 3 ft or less through tonight, then increase to 3-4 ft. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1274011 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 149 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation discussion for the 06z TAFs. No significant forecast changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly dry weather, slightly below average temperatures, and lower humidity to end the week and start the weekend. 2) A typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week, with near average temperatures and increasing shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 PM EDT Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry weather, slightly below average temperatures, and lower humidity to end the week and start the weekend. An upper level trough lingers over New England and Atlantic Canada this afternoon, with another trough over the upper Midwest. This places the Mid-Atlantic region in dry NW flow on the leading flank of an upper ridge. At the surface, weak high pressure is centered over the region. Quite pleasant for the end of July with temperatures in the mid/upper 80s and dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Partly sunny with SCT afternoon CU. Humidity will likely come up a bit this evening, especially near the coast as the flow becomes onshore. One last dry day (but warmer/more humid) on Saturday as upper heights build a bit as the ridge and surface high nudge offshore and the LLVL flow becomes southerly. Highs near 90F w/ aftn dew pts rising into the mid-upper 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2...A typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week with increasing shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing through early next week. The pattern becomes more unsettled late in the weekend into early next week as a slow moving UL trough approaches from the west. At the same time, a weak cold front approaches from the north, but will remain north of the local area through Monday (and likely wash out by Tue). With the approaching trough and Bermuda high pressure well offshore, deep-layered S to SW flow will prevail. This will allow rich Gulf moisture to overspread the area on Sunday and remain over us early next week. PWs surge from a comfortable 1-1.4" on Saturday to 2.2-2.4" by late Sunday/Sunday night. Scattered to potentially numerous showers/tstms are expected Sunday. The highest precip chances will initially be across south-central VA during the aftn (as the deep moisture arrives here first). Showers and tstms should gradually spread NE through the evening (though it may very well remain dry near the immediate coast and on the eastern shore). Showers/tstms are likely across the entire area on Monday as a lead shortwave potentially tracks over the area. Monday appears to be the day with the highest convective coverage during the period. The trough dampens a bit from Tuesday/Wednesday, but scattered showers and tstms are still expected during the aftn/evening on both days as weak SW flow aloft continues and deep moisture remains nearby. Given the environment and relatively weak unidirectional flow aloft and tall/skinny CAPE, there will be a threat of localized flash flooding each day. Temps dip down a little below average during the early week period thanks to the cloud cover and multiple rounds of rain. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 150 AM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this morning. Light, generally SE-S winds of~5 kts or less are being measured, with increasing upper cirrus moving across the area. Upper cirrus will remain across the remain across the area through this evening, with some FEW-SCT lower level clouds developing later this morning. SE-S winds will continue, but are forecast to increase to 6-10 kts. Outlook: VFR/dry Saturday night through Sunday morning as high pressure settles offshore. Shower/tstm chances return on Sunday and Monday as a slow moving upper trough approaches the area, and linger into Tuesday/Wednesday. Periodic sub-VFR conditions are possible during this time, mainly from early morning stratus, and brief vsby restrictions in heavy rain. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - A brief period of elevated S/SE winds are possible later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as high pressure settles offshore. - Another brief period of SCA conditions is possible Sunday night into Monday as a trough approaches from the west. Sfc high pressure is still in control over the local area this afternoon, leading to light winds generally 5kt or less. Seas are 2ft or less. High pressure will slide offshore late tonight, resulting in the return of southerly sfc flow by tomorrow morning. The next frontal system that will impact the area will be approaching, leading to an tighter pressure gradient between the low over the midwest and the high pressure offshore. SSE winds increase Sat evening to 15-20kt, then diminish back to 10-15kt late Sat night through early Sunday. A brief SCA will likely be needed for the bay for the Sat evening timeframe. Seas and waves build to 3ft. South winds increase again Sunday night, again to 15-20kt. Winds likely remain elevated through Monday night. During that time, seas will be able to build to 4-5ft. Showers and storms will be possible daily from Sunday through at least early next week, mostly in the afternoons. Severe risk is low at this time, but stronger storms could still have strong wind gusts. Heavy rain is the primary threat. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634. && $$ |
| #1274010 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1239 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1238 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Hot conditions will persist through next week; Saturday through Monday will be the hottest period; SPSs to Heat Advisories will likely be needed. - High temperatures will generally range between the upper 90s to mid 100s with peak heat indices between 105-115F degrees through next week. - Widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) to Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk with pockets of Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk can be expected through next week. - Breezy southeasterly winds will persist nearly each day through next week with speeds generally between 10-25 mph and peak gusts up to 35 mph. - Mostly Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions over the Laguna Madre will persist nearly each day through next week. - Borderline Fire Danger Statement (RFD) conditions can be expected at times through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1028 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected to continue through the middle parts of next week. Driving our weather pattern will be a strong 591-594 dam sub-tropical heat ridge centered over the Desert Southwest. Additionally, an enhanced pressure and thermal gradient will result in breezy southeast winds nearly each day with speeds generally ranging between 15-25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph. Special Weather Statements (SPSs) to Heat Advisories may be needed each day going forward (especially Thursday through Sunday) as daytime high temperatures will range between the upper 90s to mid 100s with peak heat indices ranging generally between 105- 115F degrees. Heat Risk concerns will continue through the middle parts of next week. Widespread Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk with pockets of Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk can be expected. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Favorable aviation conditions are expected through the next 24 hours with limited cloud cover and rain-free skies. Winds will be light at night but breezy during the daytime with stronger gusts. && .MARINE... Issued at 1028 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Generally favorable marine conditions will persist through the forecast period with mainly moderate winds and low to moderate seas. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions will likely be needed each day over the Laguna Madre due to persistently breezy southeast winds from an enhanced pressure gradient. There could be brief periods where winds reach low end Small Craft Advisory. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 98 81 100 80 / 0 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 103 78 103 77 / 0 0 10 0 MCALLEN 106 81 106 80 / 0 0 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 105 79 104 79 / 0 0 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 81 90 80 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 98 79 98 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ251. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274009 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 146 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight risk for heavy rain and flooding across much of the nature coast today through Sunday. Marginal risk for the remainder of west central and southwest Florida. - Flood Watch in effect for Levy, Citrus, and Hernando counties from noon today through 8 PM Monday. - High risk of dangerous rip currents at area beaches through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Although some drier mid level air advected over the region during the past 12 to 18 hours, that is quickly eroding and PCPW values will be climbing back AOA 2.25 inches for the weekend and into Monday. An anomalously sharp U/L trough will dig over the eastern U.S. during the next couple of days with an associated frontal boundary pushing across the southeast U.S. and stalling over the Florida panhandle on Sunday. Deep southwest flow ahead of the front will persist over west central and southwest Florida for the next several days. The best U/L support and large scale lift will occur over the northeast Gulf and nature coast this afternoon through Monday...but the best dynamics looks to be in place late Saturday night and Sunday. The overall bulk of the shower/thunderstorm activity will be north of the Tampa Bay area, however, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will still occur across the entire forecast area each day. WPC has indicated that there is a slight risk for excessive rainfall for portions of the nature coast today and Sunday. This is very much supported by the dynamics/deep tropical moisture over the area and expected rounds of showers/thunderstorms with locally heavy rain through Monday. For this reason, a flood watch has been issued for Levy, Citrus, and Hernando counties from noon today through Monday evening. Heaviest rainfall totals will likely occur near the coast, with locally 2 to 4 inches of rain possible each day with isolated higher amounts. The potential exists for rainfall totals today through Monday of 4 to 8 inches across the watch area, with locally higher amounts. Highest pops each day will be across the north with lower pops south...however as mentioned previously, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across all of west central and southwest Florida each day through Monday with localized flooding of urban and low lying poor drainage areas possible each day. The U/L trough will begin to lift away from the forecast area early next week, with surface high pressure over the western Atlantic building across the Florida peninsula. Tuesday will be a transition day as the boundary layer flow becomes re-established from the east to southeast by mid week. This will shift the timing of daily showers/storms to the mid/late afternoon and evening with the highest pops along the coastal counties as the west coast sea breeze boundary fails to progress very far inland each day...before being pushed back to the coast and offshore during the late afternoon/evening hours. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Isolated to scattered showers will develop over the coastal waters through the remainder of the night and will advect locally onshore. Primarily VFR CIGs will prevail tonight...with SCT LCL BKN over southwest Florida. However, a brief shower may impact all terminals with the exception of LAL with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs through the early morning hours. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop during the late morning and afternoon and may impact terminals periodically through the day with LCL MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs. && .MARINE... Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 West to southwest flow will persist through the weekend and into early next week with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing over the waters during the overnight hours and pushing onshore around and shortly after sunrise each day. Periods of widespread showers/storms will likely occur over the northern waters through Monday. Cautionary level winds will occur on portions of the waters for the next several days. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels for the next several days. && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Flood Watch from noon EDT today through Monday evening for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus- Inland Hernando-Inland Levy. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1274007 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 125 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 120 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - A Flood Watch is in effect for southern parts of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend from late tonight through Monday morning. Widespread rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 to 10 inches are possible through Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 A shortwave trough and potential cut-off low will move across the the mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes through Saturday. This system will drag a cold front into the Southeast on Saturday. Ahead of this system, PWATs will climb into the 2.2 to 2.5 inch range, signaling the potential for heavy rainfall. Scattered thunderstorms are beginning to develop this afternoon across the area. Some gusty winds and locally heavy downpours are possible with these storms. These storms will fade after sunset across the land areas. Overnight tonight, storms may develop along the land breeze over the nearshore waters, then move inland as the flow becomes more west to southwest ahead of the approaching system. This probably wouldn`t make much inland progress and could stall near the coast, resulting in potential training of thunderstorms into Saturday morning. Hi-res guidance shows the potential for several inches of rain through Saturday morning near the Bay/Gulf County coast as well as the Taylor/Dixie County coast. Given this potential, have gone ahead and issued a Flood Watch starting at 5 AM ET/4 AM CT tonight for areas roughly along and south of a Panama City to Mayo line. More discussion on the overall flood threat can be found in the hydrology section below. The showers and storms will gradually spread inland through the day. Given the deep tropical moisture in place, locally heavy rain is possible across inland areas as well. But the widespread heavy rain threat does not appear as great as communities along the coast. Otherwise, it will remain quite muggy with lows tonight in the 70s. Highs tomorrow will be held to the 80s thanks to the cloud cover and rain. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 This shortwave will slowly move eastward Sunday into Monday before weakening heading into Tuesday. This keeps our area in deep tropical southwesterly flow with PWATs still around 2.2 to 2.5 inches. With the slight eastward shift, the widespread heavy rain threat will start to spread eastward as well into the Florida Big Bend. Similar to Saturday, the best chances for heavy rainfall will be closer to the coast, with the heavy rain being more isolated farther inland. The flood watch continues through Monday afternoon to cover the waves of showers and storms. More discussion on the rain and flood threat can be found in the hydrology section below. By Tuesday, the shortwave and front weaken, and the rain chances will begin a slow decline through the middle of next week back to summertime normals. This also means a return to hot temperatures by the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 120 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Although convection is on a downward trend currently, development will increase towards dawn through the panhandle and spread north and east with time. Each TAF site has SHRA and TSRA based on high res models in addition to timing out impacts through the day. Winds will generally be from the west outside of storms with a few brief gusts around stronger storms. MVFR or high IFR may also accompany heavier convection. SHowers and storms will be on the decrease in coverage in the evening hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 229 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected each day, with some storms capable of strong wind gusts and frequent lightning. Moderate west to southwest flow will continue through Saturday, then increase Saturday night into Sunday to near advisory levels. Seas will build in response to 3 to 5 feet. Winds and seas subside Monday with gentle to moderate southwest flow and decreasing seas into mid week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 229 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 A very wet pattern will continue through this weekend across the area, leading to little to no fire concern. Transport winds will remain out of the west to southwest around 10-15 mph each day. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 229 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 A very wet pattern with heavy rainfall sets up late tonight and will continue into Monday across the area. The deep tropical moisture and slow movement and possible training of storms could lead to flash flooding over the next few days. The hi-res guidance suite this morning has become more concerning regarding heavy rainfall. The first round of heavy rain and flood potential could begin as early as late tonight mainly for the coastal portions of Bay and Gulf Counties with a lower threat along the Taylor and Dixie County coasts. Some guidance suggests several inches of rain could fall in a short period of time through Saturday morning. The heavy rain threat begins to spread eastward into the Big Bend Saturday night, then becomes more concentrated in the Big Bend Sunday into Monday. For this reason, a Flood Watch has been issued from roughly Panama City to Mayo southward beginning at 5 AM ET/4 AM CT Saturday morning and continues through Monday afternoon. Widespread rainfall totals in the watch area will likely be between 3 and 6 inches, but isolated reasonable high-end totals of 8 to 10 inches are possible through Monday. Given that some of these areas have seen 3 to 6 inches in the last 2 days, the ground is becoming more saturated, and some areas are now more prone to flash flooding. Outside of the watch area, most areas will see about 1 to 3 inches of rain through Monday with isolated higher amounts of 4 inches possible. This could lead to more nuisance-type flooding of poor drainage and low lying areas. On the rivers, most of our rivers will be in good shape, but the coastal rivers could see rises depending on where the rain ultimately falls. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 73 83 73 86 / 60 100 70 80 Panama City 77 86 76 88 / 80 90 80 60 Dothan 73 87 72 89 / 70 80 20 30 Albany 73 86 72 88 / 70 90 40 50 Valdosta 72 86 71 86 / 60 100 70 80 Cross City 73 84 72 85 / 80 90 90 90 Apalachicola 77 84 76 85 / 80 90 90 80 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ early this morning through Monday afternoon for FLZ012-014-015-027>029-034-112-114-115- 118-127-128-134-426. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274006 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1226 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1223 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - A few storms may produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground lightning. - A High Risk of rip currents is expected through the weekend for all area beaches. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A strong shortwave will move into the Ohio Valley today helping a carve out a trough over the eastern states. This will send a cold front southward toward the area late today into tonight. The front will likely stall along the I-65 corridor on Sunday afternoon before being pushed east on Monday. As the trough and front move into the area, the deeper moisture will be pushed eastward today with some drier air slowly moving into northwest area. As a result, the highest rain chances will be mainly east of I-65. As the front moves in overnight into Sunday, scattered pops are expected across the entire area before moving east of I-65 during the late afternoon. A few storms could produce gusty winds and small hail. however the main threat will be locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. A drier airmass moves across the entire area Monday into Tuesday with upper level ridging builds back into the area, resulting in mostly dry conditions through midweek. Moisture levels return late in the week with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. /13 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Isolated convection will be possible overnight over eastern portions of the area, then isolated to scattered convection is expected on Saturday mainly along/east of the Alabama/Mobile Rivers. MVFR conditions will be possible with the stronger storms, and some patchy overnight fog will be possible over interior areas as well. Light and variable winds overnight become southwesterly 5-10 knots on Saturday, potentially 10-15 knots near the coast. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 136 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Light to moderate westerly winds becomes a moderate to occasionally strong westerly to southwesterly flow for Saturday night through Sunday before diminishing on Monday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms become possible through late week, with best chances this weekend. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 91 75 91 72 / 30 40 40 10 Pensacola 89 78 89 76 / 40 60 70 30 Destin 88 78 88 78 / 70 70 90 50 Evergreen 89 72 90 70 / 40 50 40 20 Waynesboro 92 73 92 70 / 30 40 10 0 Camden 88 72 89 70 / 40 50 20 10 Crestview 88 74 89 72 / 70 60 70 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from this afternoon through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from this afternoon through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274005 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:27 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1216 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1213 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast on Sunday with gusty winds and locally heavy rain being the primary threats. A few storms could become strong to severe resulting in damaging wind gusts and localized flooding. Anyone with outdoor plans for Sunday should stay weather aware and have a plan for where to take shelter if thunderstorms affect their location. - Slightly drier air will move into the area to start next week, leading to temporary relief from the recent heat through the first half of the workweek. By the second half of the week, moisture will return to the area, with heat index values possibly reaching hazardous levels again by Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Hazardous heat will continue to affect the area this afternoon mainly for areas along and south of the I-10/12 corridor where afternoon heat index values will generally peak around 110 degrees and a heat advisory remains in effect. Tomorrow will be similar, though the current forecast calls for heat index values to be a couple degrees lower, causing the peak values to come in just below heat advisory criteria. Given the borderline nature of tomorrow`s heat index forecast, will hold off on a heat advisory for the time being to see how this afternoon`s heat index forecast plays out and whether any adjustments to tomorrow`s forecast are necessary. The most likely location for a heat advisory tomorrow would once again be across areas along and south of the I-10/12 corridor. On Sunday a weak "cold" front will drop into the local area. With the upper level trough associated with this front forecast to remain well north of the local area, the front itself is not likely to move all the way into the Gulf or result in a significant airmass change. Rather, the surface boundary will likely stall either near the coast or over the local area, providing a focus for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms wherever it stalls. While rain chances will be relatively high on Sunday (mainly in the 50 to 70 percent range), overall rain amounts are forecast to be low, with most places likely to see less than a tenth to a quarter inch of rain. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 In the wake of Sunday`s "cold" front, slightly drier air will move into the area for the first 2-3 days of the work week. This should keep afternoon heat index values more in the "uncomfortable" 100-105 degree range rather than the "hazardous to your health if precautions aren`t taken" range. The drier air will also allow overnight lows to fall to near normal levels for a couple days with afternoon temperatures rising a couple degrees above normal given the low cloud cover across the area. Moving into the second half of the week, upper level high pressure will breakdown as a trough moves into the upper/middle Mississippi valley. With the local area situated on the western periphery of low level high pressure, onshore winds will bring moisture back into the area as well. This will cause afternoon heat index values to rise again, potentially reaching hazardous levels by Thursday and Friday. Rain chances will be highest (30-40%) in coastal areas where sea and lake breeze boundaries will serve as a focus for isolated to scattered convective initiation. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 VFR conditions through the overnight and into Saturday morning. Winds will gradually increase a bit, especially along the coastal terminals. Otherwise, GPT has the best potential for convection Saturday afternoon...covered with PROBs for now. Brief reductions and gusty winds will be possible in and around convection during the afternoon. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 High pressure located over the southeastern Gulf will keep west to southwesterly flow in place across the coastal waters for the next several days, though a weak cold front may briefly result in offshore flow Sunday. A tighter pressure gradient will cause winds to strengthen to 15 to 20 knots late tonight through Sunday night across most of the waters and a small craft advisory may be needed for a short period Sunday. The front will provide a focus for scattered to numerous showers and storms, mainly Sunday into Monday as it becomes stationary near the coast or over the northern Gulf and washes out. By the second half of the work week, winds will become more southeasterly as the local area becomes located more on the western periphery of the surface high. Seas will generally build 2 to 4 feet nearshore and 3 to 5 feet offshore in response to the stronger winds Saturday through Sunday night, but will otherwise be in the 1 to 3 feet range. Locally higher winds and seas will also be possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorms. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274002 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:00 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1247 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increasing confidence in a soggy, wet weather pattern for early to middle of next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms weaken and dissipate by sundown, with clearing skies overnight. Patchy fog possible. - Slow-moving frontal boundary nearby Southern New England could favor several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday, with street flooding possible. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms weaken and dissipate by sundown, with clearing skies overnight. Patchy fog possible. Upper level low continues to pull away this afternoon into tonight. However scattered instability type showers have developed this afternoon in a weakly-unstable convective setting, with a couple being capable of a few lightning strikes. Expect activity to move gradually off to the south and east, with diminishing coverage and strength as we move toward sunset. Severe weather is not expected, and even lightning will be tough to come by. We do clear out tonight, and with that comes the risk for patchy fog; the more typically favored areas are most susceptible to patchy fog development. Saturday into Sunday otherwise looks favorable with full sun and seasonable temps, with seabreezes at the coast. KEY MESSAGE 2...Slow-moving frontal boundary nearby Southern New England could favor several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday, with street flooding possible. Latest ensembles point to an unsettled and potentially active early to midweek as a slow-moving frontal boundary remains nearby or over Southern New England, with an influx of subtropical moisture on southwesterly flow aloft. Main risk this front will bring to Southern New England is another period of soaking downpours given the slow-moving frontal zone interacting with the highly moisture- rich airmass preceding it. It`s still uncertain what the highest rain totals would look like and where they would fall, but with a few spot areas in interior Southern New England having registered quite a bit of rain in the last 48 hours, there would be some risk for localized street flooding. Probabilities for rainfall over 1" in 24 hours has increased into the lower to moderate (20-40%) range. Severe weather potential looks limited. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z TAF Update: Through 12Z: High confidence overall, low on fog coverage. VFR at most terminals, but patchy fog will increase in coverage before dissipating by 13z. Best chance at BDL, BED and ORH. SW winds around 5 kt, becoming light/calm overnight. Saturday: High confidence. VFR. SW winds around 5-10 kt, with seabreezes developing at BOS around 14-15z. Low chance of a shower or thunderstorm 17z-00z. Low clouds/fog dissipated by 13Z. Saturday night:High confidence. VFR to start. MVFR cigs move in after 06z, mainly SFZ-GHG south. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely, chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA. Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Winds and seas below small craft advisory levels through Saturday night. Light northerly winds tonight, shifting to light SW overnight. SW winds pick up to around 10-15 kt, and increasing to 15-20 kt Saturday overnight. Seas 3 ft or less through tonight, then increase to 3-4 ft. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
