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| #1248896 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:18 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 913 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 - Rain chances have increased today to 60-90% ahead of a cold front. An isolated strong/severe storm is possible, but chances for severe weather remain low (around 5%). A marginal risk (level 1 of 5) is in place for the western half of the area. - Despite beneficial rainfall Sunday, widespread forecast amounts have a high probability (>70% chance) of being under one inch. This will not be enough to relieve the drought. - Dry conditions and decreasing humidity next week will result in elevated fire concerns continuing as drought persists. Exercise caution if dealing with flames. && .UPDATE... Issued at 912 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 A line of scattered showers with a few thunderstorms is moving east across the region this morning. This will continue through the afternoon. No major changes have been made to the forecast this morning. A few storms this morning may be strong with damaging wind gusts and possible waterspouts/tornado along the coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Showers and storms are marching across the Southeast this morning and are forecast to arrive between 5-7am CDT for our SE Alabama and FL Panhandle counties. Those showers and storms trudge east across the region throughout the morning before exiting the Suwannee River Valley by the middle of the afternoon. A few of the storms may be strong to severe with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather across the western half of the area. The main concern is damaging wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph (around 5% chance), but a tornado or two cannot be completely ruled out (near 2% chance). The low-level jet (LLJ) is forecast to strengthen to 35-45 knots in the pre-dawn hours across Alabama as an H5 shortwave approaches; the core of the LLJ is then forecast to lift northeast, away from our area, throughout the morning. Meanwhile, MLCAPE will increase just after sunrise to 500-1500 J/kg, especially for areas along and south of US-84 in SE Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. So there is a brief window this morning for some stronger storms, especially across the aforementioned areas. As the morning wears on and the LLJ heads NE, the line of showers and storms should weaken. That said, some gusty winds will remain possible as the line moves east across the area. Temperatures climb into the lower to middle 80s with some late-day sunshine. The cold front moves through this evening with breezy northwesterly ushering in cooler temperatures as we`ll settle into the upper 40s to middle 50s by Monday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Dry conditions return to the region to start the work week. Another cold front is forecast to swing through Tuesday afternoon. However, meager moisture return ahead of the front will keep rain chances at less than 10%. Another cold front approaches the region next weekend along with better rain chances next Saturday and/or Sunday. Highs climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s each afternoon throughout the week with lows in the mid-upper 40s Tuesday morning, mid 50s Wednesday, and back in the mid-upper 40s Thursday and Friday. Finally. A true taste of fall arrives to the area. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 A line of showers and embedded thunderstorms continues to head east along the northern Gulf coast this morning. While most of the thunderstorms are offshore now, we do anticipate them developing closer to the coast and moving inland as the morning progresses, so kept the TSRA in the TEMPO groups in the TAFs. There are some indications of a secondary line of showers attempting to develop along the actual cold front in some of the model guidance, which is the main reason for the longer duration TEMPO groups to account for that potential. Southerly winds are anticipated ahead of the front before turning more out of the west immediately behind it and the northwest later tonight as high pressure moves in. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Showers and thunderstorms, potentially with strong gusts and waterspouts, will move through the marine area this morning and afternoon. Moderate southerly to southwesterly winds prevail ahead of a cold front before turning northerly and increasing to Advisory levels tonight through mid-Monday morning. Seas will be around 3 to 5 feet. Gentle northeasterly breezes Monday become light to moderate out of the northwest Tuesday as another cold front slides through the northeastern Gulf. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are on the way this morning ahead of a cold front. Some of the thunderstorms may produce gusty, erratic winds as they move through. A wetting rain is likely for areas along and west of a line from Albany, GA to Tallahassee, FL. Transport winds shift from SW to NW at 10-15 mph today with good dispersions. Fire weather concerns remain elevated much of the upcoming work week. MinRH values plunge to between 25-35% Monday before recovering to 30-40% Tuesday afternoon. A reinforcing cold front arrives Tuesday, turning Transport Winds more out of the west to northwest Tuesday and Wednesday. Much drier air arrives Wednesday and Thursday with MinRH values nearing critical values, or between 15-25%, especially Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Rainfall totals of 0.25" to 0.75" are forecast for much of the region outside of the I-75 corridor, where closer to 0.1" to 0.25" are expected. The reasonable high-end totals of 1.0" to 1.5" are most likely across the Florida Panhandle into the western Florida Big Bend. Given the very dry antecedent conditions, flooding concerns are minimal. These rainfall totals, even if they verify on the higher end, won`t be a drought-buster. Combine that with little to no rain in the forecast after today, drought conditions will persist, if not worsen. For more information on drought conditions locally, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 82 55 77 53 / 80 10 0 0 Panama City 83 57 78 56 / 90 0 0 0 Dothan 82 50 76 47 / 90 0 0 0 Albany 80 50 76 48 / 80 0 0 0 Valdosta 82 53 76 51 / 70 10 0 0 Cross City 85 60 81 59 / 70 10 0 0 Apalachicola 82 59 76 60 / 90 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Monday for GMZ730- 755-765-775. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Monday for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1248895 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:33 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 823 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - High Rip Current Risk at the Northeast FL Beaches Today - Isolated Thunderstorms Possible This Afternoon & Evening - Minor Tidal Flooding Today for the St. Johns Basin. Main Impact Area: Downtown Jacksonville Southward && .UPDATE... Issued at 808 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Minor changes to the forecast this morning, mainly timing of PoPs/wx with the cool frontal passage expected later this afternoon and evening. Still looking like instability will be rather limited with moisture and upper support weakening as it moves towards our area, and therefore only slight chances of any thunder with broken convection ahead of the front. Highs will jump up into the mid to upper 80s for most today in the southwest flow out ahead of the boundary, and would not be surprised to see a few spots at 90 over parts of northeast FL. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 1207 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Warm and breezy conditions today as weakening cold frontal boundary pushes across the region from NW to SE with scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms possible. Moisture and upper level support for this boundary weakens considerably as it pushes across the region and rainfall/storm chances definitely higher across inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley of inland North FL this afternoon, before lingering rainfall chances reach the Atlantic Coastal areas by the late afternoon and evening hours. Breezy Southwest winds at 10-20 mph today with gusts to 30 mph ahead of this boundary will push Max temps well into the 80s with some upper 80s expected across most of NE FL and coastal SE GA. Severe weather is not expected from these storms, but some gusty winds to 40 mph possible in some of the stronger activity over inland areas this afternoon. This boundary sags southward through the rest of NE FL and into the Atlantic Coastal waters tonight with some leftover showers possible this evening, otherwise clearing skies as winds become northerly overnight with lows falling into the 50s across SE GA and lower 60s across NE FL by Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1207 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Cold front will continue to move off to the southeast Monday morning, as high pressure builds over the southeastern US behind it. The high will move off the southeast US coast during the afternoon, with a weak trough developing along the local coast. A dry day is expected for Monday with winds remaining gusty at the coast. Temperatures will trend below normal Monday, especially at the coast due to the onshore flow, as coastal water temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s. The high will remain centered to the northeast of the region Monday night, with weak inverted trough near the coast. It will be a dry night. The flow will be light across the area, but onshore near the FL coast. With this onshore flow along FL coast, and a cool over land flow inland, a wide range in temperatures is expected. Lows will range from the upper 40s over interior SE GA, to the middle 60s along the NE FL coast. The high will center to the east northeast of the region Tuesday, as a front approaches from the northwest. A dry day is forecast. Temperatures will be warmest inland, as the east coast sea breeze will limit readings near the coast. The cold front will move southeast across area Tuesday night. The front will weaken as it encounters drier air over area, so keeping precipitation chances out of forecast. Lows will range from the middle 50s inland to the lower 60s coast. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 1207 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 High pressure will move from northwest of the area to the northeast of the area this period. Dry weather is expected to persist. The best potential for precipitation will be late in the period, due to increasing moisture in a southeast flow, but this activity may hold off through the daylight hours. Above normal temperatures Wednesday, will be followed by a period of below normal readings. Temperatures could recover to near to above normal Saturday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 808 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Clouds increase throughout the morning ahead of a frontal boundary impacting the area this afternoon and through tonight. Expecting only a broken line of showers and low chances for TSRA as the feature weakens approaching the region. Have opted to not include any TSRA mention in the forecast at this time, as these chances are only about 5 to 10 percent. Operational impacts are expected to be overall minimal, though some MVFR vsbys and/or cigs will be possible briefly in any SHRA. Isolated SHRA will continue to push south and eastward after 00Z this evening before the front clears the area towards the end of the forecast period. Breezier winds approaching 10 kts for most airfields will also be expected towards the end of the forecast period post frontal passage. && .MARINE... Issued at 1207 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 A weakening cold front will enter the southeastern states today, bringing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to the local waters this evening. Northwesterly winds will briefly strengthen to Caution levels in the wake of this frontal passage late tonight and Monday morning. Weak high pressure will shift over our local waters on Monday afternoon and evening, with this feature then shifting offshore ahead of a dry cold front that will likely cross our area on Tuesday night. Stronger high pressure will build from the lower Mississippi Valley towards the Tennessee Valley around midweek in the wake of this frontal passage, resulting in strengthening northeasterly winds and building seas across our local waters. Rip Currents: Elevated rip current risk today as longer period swells push into the surf zone and will maintain a high risk of rips at NE FL beaches with surf/breakers of 3-5 ft, while a Moderate Risk of rips is expected at SE GA beaches with surf/breakers of 2-4 ft. Winds shift to the Northeast on Monday and will continue at least a Moderate risk of rip currents at NE FL/SE GA beaches. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1207 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Minor Tidal/Coastal flooding will continue today around times of high tide along the St. Johns River Basin, mainly south of JAX, with peak water levels in the 1.5 to 2.0 ft MHHW range and Coastal Flood Advisory will remain intact through this afternoon. The shift to offshore flow later today should help to drain enough of the trapped tides from the St. Johns River Basin to allow the Coastal Flood Advisory to expire by this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 83 50 76 48 / 60 20 0 0 SSI 81 59 73 61 / 30 30 0 0 JAX 87 59 76 58 / 50 20 0 0 SGJ 86 64 77 65 / 40 30 0 0 GNV 87 61 81 59 / 50 30 0 0 OCF 87 64 81 63 / 50 30 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ038- 132-137-138-325-633. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1248894 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:18 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 800 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms will move southeast into the Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening, with the greatest rain chances north of the Tampa Bay. Frequent lightning and gusty winds will accompany the strongest storms. - A pocket of deeper moisture moving into southwest Florida will also lead to a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. - Cooler and drier conditions will move in Wednesday night through the rest of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 800 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Convection moving across the Florida Panhandle and northern gulf ahead of the cold front will continue to move east reaching the Nature Coast this afternoon. However, it still looks like these showers and thunderstorms will weaken as they move into our region and likely fall apart before reaching the Tampa Bay and I-4 corridor later this afternoon. Further south, an area of deeper moisture is moving north through the Keys and is expected to help pop a few afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms over inland southwest Florida and the southern interior. Have made some adjustments to the rain chances, mainly across southwest Florida and southern interior to include chance PoPs for later today, otherwise remainder of forecast looks ok at this time. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 800 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Increasing moisture ahead of cool front will cause a few showers this afternoon and tonight which could cause some MVFR/local IFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail with southeast winds at 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest this afternoon, then becoming light later this evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 In the upper levels, an elongated trough over the central US is forecast to swing through the eastern US today and Monday, followed by a second broad trough that will cross the Great Lakes Region during the middle and later portions of the week. At the surface, the sub tropical ridge axis is extending from the Atlantic across northern Florida, but will shift east today and tonight as the first trough sweeps a weak cold front into the Florida Peninsula. Southeasterly and southerly low level flow ahead of this front will build atmospheric moisture, leading to increasing temperatures and humidity, and allowing for chances of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and overnight. High resolution models are showing that the convection associated with the front will be rapidly dying out as it moves south through the area, so the highest rain chances will generally be north of Interstate 4. However, it is worth noting that for northern portions of the forecast area, the NBM has been increasing rain chances over the last few cycles, with PoPs now up to 40-60 percent in Levy County this afternoon. Since the upper level trough will remain well to the north of Florida, this front will only be strong enough to bring noticeably lower temperatures and dew points into the Nature Coast counties on Monday, then conditions will begin to moderate on Tuesday as surface ridging weakly builds back in across Florida. On Wednesday, the second trough will bring a reinforcing cold front through the Florida Peninsula. This looks to be a dry frontal passage, with rain chances remaining minimal through the end of the week. Lower temperatures will advance a bit farther south behind this front, with morning lows in the 50s to mid 60s across the area Thursday and Friday mornings. Lower humidity will also be felt across the area through the second half of the week. By Friday and Saturday, surface ridging will setup north of Florida, with easterly flow allowing temperatures and humidities to start to increase again. && .MARINE... Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 A weak cold front will move southeast through the waters this afternoon and evening, bringing chances of showers and storms and briefly increasing offshore winds north of Tarpon Springs to around Small Craft Exercise Caution levels. High pressure builds in behind the front, with northeast and east winds setting up for the first half of the week and low rain chances. Winds will slightly increase again on Wednesday and Thursday as a secondary front moves south through the area, with Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines possibly being needed. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Humidity increases today ahead of a weak cold front that will pass through the area this afternoon and evening. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible with the frontal passage, with the highest rain chances north of Interstate 4. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 88 73 88 71 / 20 20 10 0 FMY 89 73 90 72 / 30 20 10 0 GIF 89 70 87 69 / 10 20 10 0 SRQ 87 72 88 70 / 10 10 10 0 BKV 88 66 86 64 / 30 20 10 0 SPG 84 73 85 72 / 20 20 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1248893 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:09 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 703 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 656 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 - A line of thunderstorms will push through the area late tonight through the late morning hours. A few storms may become strong to severe with damaging wind gusts and tornadoes possible. - A High Risk of rip currents will continue through this afternoon. Before heading to the beach, check the local conditions and follow the posted beach warning flags. - The Small Craft Advisory has been expanded to now include Mobile Bay, the Mississippi Sound, Pensacola Bay, and all Gulf zones for tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 A line (QLCS) of storms approaching from the west will quickly progress eastward at around 30 mph. The bulk of the precipitation should be east of the Tombigbee River by daybreak, and exit the forecast area by the late morning hours. As deep southerly to southwesterly winds increase ahead of a cold front approaching the forecast area, MLCAPE values will increase to between 700 to 1500 J/KG. 0-3km Helicity values are expected to increase to between 200-300 m2/s2 through the remainder of the night into Sunday morning. Any of the stronger storms within the QLCS will have the potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Clouds will clear from west to east throughout the morning hours soon after the rain ends and the cold front passes through, followed by sunny skies across the entire are in the afternoon. A much cooler and drier airmass will filter into the region from the north, and effectively result in breezy northerly winds tonight into Sunday. Another cold front moves across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, keeping the dry weather conditions persisting through the rest of the week. High temperatures today will range from 80-85 degrees before cooling slightly to between 75-80 degrees on Monday. Highs will rebound to 80-85 degrees on Tuesday before slightly cooling again to between 75-80 degrees through the remainder of the week. Low temperatures tonight and Monday night will be in the middle 40s to lower 50s inland and the middle 50s to around 60 degrees along the immediate coast. Our coolest and driest airmass of the season so far infiltrates the area Wednesday night with overnight lows bottoming out in the lower to middle 40`s for most locations, upper 40`s nearer the coast. We gradually follow a warming trend for overnight lows the rest of the week into the weekend. Beach Forecast: A High Risk of rip currents will continue through this afternoon. Northerly winds occurring tonight into Monday will allow the rip current risk to become MODERATE tonight, followed by a LOW risk Monday through Thursday. /22 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 702 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 A cold front currently over southeast Mississippi into interior southwest Alabama will push eastward through the remainder of the forecast area this morning. Showers and storms mainly over south central Alabama and the western Florida panhandle likewise exit to the east this morning. IFR to MVFR conditions and gusty winds will accompany the stronger storms. VFR conditions follow in the wake of the cold front and persist through Sunday night. Southwesterly winds around 10 knots switch to the northwest with the frontal passage. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 The Small Craft Advisory has been expanded to now include Mobile Bay, the Mississippi Sound, Pensacola Bay, and all Gulf zones for tonight as winds shift northerly and then northeasterly in the wake of a cold front. Winds gradually relax and turn easterly Monday afternoon into Monday night, and then becoming northerly shifting to westerly on Tuesday. A light to moderate offshore flow then prevails Tuesday night through Thursday in the wake of another cold front. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 83 51 77 52 / 40 0 0 0 Pensacola 85 57 77 57 / 80 0 0 0 Destin 85 59 78 60 / 100 0 0 0 Evergreen 85 47 80 46 / 70 0 0 0 Waynesboro 78 46 76 48 / 20 0 0 0 Camden 80 46 76 46 / 50 0 0 0 Crestview 84 49 78 46 / 90 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for GMZ670-675. && $$ |
| #1248888 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:39 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 628 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Early this morning we are watching a band of rather low- topped/weak convection over the southern most parishes. CAMs, or more specifically the HRRR have initialized and have been verifying quite well this evening, so using this as a starting point seems to be a good call at least as it currently stands. The upper level trough axis currently over north central LA will continue to slide eastward through the early morning hours. A line or broken line of convection has developed where the best forcing resides along with 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE plume in those respective areas. Locally, the 00z LIX RAOB shows some instability at around 1200 J/KG SBCAPE or so. However, above H7 the column is noticeably dry. With out the added forcing as well as the slightly limited instability, vertical extent of the ongoing convection is extremely limited. This is forecast to continue through much of the early morning. However, as the trough moves east, the ongoing band of showers will move over the Gulf and eventually perk up a bit (according to CAMs and mesoscale models) downstream just beyond our CWFA. This could happen a bit soon depending on timing. Spatially it is close with the band becoming a bit more formidable over Mobile Bay...so Harrison and Jackson Counties will need to be watched for this convective uptick. That said, only limited severe risk as shear remains lackluster and again even with slightly better forcing there is still quite a bit a upper level dry air to penetrate. As the front moves through the region later this morning or early afternoon, a stronger offshore flow is expected to develop across the CWFA allowing for a CAA regime to take shape. This will help drop overnight lows tonight into the upper 40s along and north of the I10/12 corridor with the southshore dropping off into the lower and middle 60s thanks to the warmer lake waters. Slight moderation occurs Monday and into Monday night as surface high pressure spread eastward quickly across the southeast US and off into the southwest Atlantic. This will allow low level flow to transition back to a warmer onshore flow late Monday with temperatures about 5 degrees or so warmer Tuesday morning when compared to Monday morning. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 The long term period starts with zonal to somewhat dry WNW flow across the region aloft. Looking upstream, another frontal boundary will be moving southeastward toward our region and through the area by early Wednesday morning. QPF signal is pretty weak so POPs will only reside across our northwestern CWFA and even then the odds are lower-end. Think much of this frontal passage will be a dry one with most of the region escaping the frontal passage rain free. Behind the front a CAA regime sets up with stronger northerly flow developing. Temperatures overnight should drop slightly below average with the northern tier perhaps dropping down into the upper 40s. The southshore will be a bit warmer, however, even along and south of I10 will drop into the 50s along the MS Gulf Coast and lower 60s for New Orleans. Surface high pressure is forecast to move east through the lower MS River Valley. The coldest morning will be Thursday with maximized radiational cooling taking shape as the surface high moves over the area. The feature quickly moves eastward and by Friday the high will move off the Carolina coastline allowing for surface flow to become more onshore once again. This will help start a bit of a warming trend going into late week and into the weekend where afternoon highs warm from the upper 70s back into the lower 80s...with overnight lows generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s away from the warmer water bodies. We`ll also be watching another cold front next weekend that looks move into the region. This will be the third front in this forecast cycle, so we will hold off with specifics and focus on the more impactful front in the short term and early on in the long term period. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Post-convective lingering low stratus will continue to impact ASD and GPT over the next hour or two, but conditions will rapidly improve as drier air moves in from the northwest and skies clear. By 14z, prevailing VFR conditions will be in place at all of the terminals. These conditions will persist through tomorrow morning as a dry and stable ridge of high pressure builds over the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Moderate winds and seas are expected through the remainder of the weekend and into the start of the new workweek. Cautionary headlines will likely be needed, especially for the MS Coastal waters today through early Monday as a cold front moves through the region from northwest to southeast. The front clears and conditions improve by late Monday and especially into Tuesday. Another frontal boundary is due into the region by midweek or so, which will again cause a moderate offshore flow to develop with additional cautionary headlines likely. Light to moderate winds will continue and by the end of the forecast period a more onshore flow will develop as a surface high moves eastward off the Carolina coast. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 77 48 78 54 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 82 51 81 58 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 84 49 78 54 / 10 0 0 0 MSY 86 61 81 64 / 10 0 0 0 GPT 84 54 76 58 / 20 0 0 0 PQL 85 49 79 52 / 30 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248887 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:39 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 720 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Another pleasant day can be expected today with mild temperatures and breezy southerly winds. A strong frontal system arrives early Monday morning, and brings a quick line of heavy rain and strong winds. The front moves offshore Monday afternoon with drying conditions and continued breezy winds. Drier weather returns for Tuesday, but another frontal system arrives Wednesday ushers in a cooler, cloudier, and more unsettled weather pattern for late in the workweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Points * Mild and breezy today The upper-level ridge axis begins to move offshore today, allowing flow aloft to turn SW ahead of a strong shortwave through over the Ohio River Valley. WAA with the SW flow aloft will bring 850mb temps up to +11C today, which will translate to high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Skies start off mostly sunny, but more high-level clouds move in during the afternoon ahead of the shortwave, leaving filtered sunshine to overcast skies. Winds gradually increase through the day, gusting up to 20mph from the south && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... Key Points * Strong frontal system moves through the region Monday morning * Very heavy rain and difficult driving conditions likely * Strong to damaging winds possible * Rain arrives in western MA/CT around 5-7am and Eastern MA/RI around 8-11am Tonight: Continued WAA overnight will keep overnight temps mild, in the mid to upper 50s. Winds aloft continue to increase as a southerly LLJ at 40-50 knots moves into the region. It will be tough to mix those winds down to the surface at night, but gusts of 20-30mph remain possible. Rain for the most part should hold off until closer to daybreak, but some showers and light drizzle are possible ahead of the main line of showers and thunderstorms. Monday The shortwave trough arrives along with a strong surface front early Monday morning, and moves quickly offshore by mid Monday afternoon. Guidance is in rather good agreement on the timing of the line of heavy rain or Fine Line. The Fine Line should be approaching western MA/CT between 5-7 am and arriving at the I-95 corridor between 8-11 am. The line will then be moving offshore, likely by 1-2 pm in the afternoon. Although Fine Line will be moving rather quickly, it will pack a punch as it moves through and create disruptions to the morning commute. PWATS ahead of the line will be surging to near 1.5 inches, which, combined with the strong forcing from the shortwave, will likely result in rain rates exceeding 1-2 inches per hour. Strong to possibly damaging winds may also accompany the line as low-level winds around 2kft will be approaching 50-60mph. There is a large amount of uncertainty on whether these winds aloft will be able to reach the ground, especially so early in the day when a nocturnal inversion usually exists. However, guidance suggests MUCAPE values could be around 200-400 J/kg, which could lead to a couple of stronger cells/thunderstorms within the greater line and lead to those stronger winds aloft reaching the surface. The main impact of the line of heavy rain will be very difficult driving conditions for roughly 30-60 minutes on Monday morning; however, I would not rule out the possibility of a couple severe wind gusts inside a stronger shower/thunderstorm. Temperatures on Monday likely do not follow a diurnal curve, with high temperatures likely being met in the morning, reaching the mid- 60s. Behind the rain and the front, temperatures begin to fall into the upper 50s. It will still be breezy behind the front with WSW gusts of 20-25mph. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages: * Drier Tue but a mix of clouds and sun with seasonable temps in the low to mid 60s. * Another strong cold front moves in for Wed, heralding a cooler and more unsettled weather pattern change in store for late in the workweek. Temps by late week trend cooler on the highs with seasonable lows. Details: Pretty active, changeable workweek weather-wise, with another pretty strong cold frontal passage both again on Wed. A deep trough then becomes established late in the week, ushering in a cooler, cloudier and more unsettled weather pattern to close out the workweek. Brief dry weather returns on Tue, stuck between storm systems, but with a mix of clouds and sun. Highs in the lower to mid 60s which is around seasonable. Another strong cold front then arrives on Wed, bringing another period of solid rain chances; while the timing is still subject to adjustments, current indications are for a similar timing of rains as those of Monday (morning to early afternoon). Highs on Wed in the mid 60s. Passage of this second cold front then ushers in a cooler and more unsettled weather pattern change for late in the week, as deep cyclonic flow aloft governs the Northeast states. Expect a period of cooler, cloudier weather with perhaps a stray shower or two but not widespread nor resulting in any washouts. 850 mb temps drop to near zero Celsius which could bring highs in the 50s for Thu and Fri, a little cooler than normal for late October. Nighttime lows may not drop as far given cloud cover, with lows in the mid 40s which are slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12z TAF Update: Today... High Confidence VFR. Increasing southerly winds gusting up to 15-20 knots. Tonight...High Confidence. Increasing mid-level clouds. IFR-MVFR ceiling spread from west to east 06z-09z. Rain may enter western MA and CT as early as 09-11z Monday...High Confidence Strong frontal system will bring a quick albeit heavy line of showers and possibly a rumble of thunder Monday morning. The line should enter western MA between 10-12z, and progress east moving offshore by 18z. CIGS will quickly drop to IFR/LIFR with strong SSE winds gusting up to 40 knots. Behind the line, CIGS gradually rise to VFR for the afternoon. KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. VFR. Increasing southerly winds gusting up to 20 knots in the afternoon KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. VFR. Increasing southerly winds gusting up to 20 knots in the afternoon Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely, slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Monday...High confidence. Key Point * Dangerous Marine conditions expected Monday morning to early afternoon * Short period of heavy rain and gale to storm force winds possible. Tranquil boating conditions expected today with 2-4 foot seas and increasing southerly winds at 10-20 knots. Winds continue to increase overnight, gusting 20-30 knots. A strong line of showers and thunderstorms will approach the waters from the west early Monday morning. This line is expected to bring a brief period of heavy rain and strong winds on the order of 40-50 knots. Given the short duration, likely under 2 hours, this line will best be handled with short-fused special marine warnings rather than longer-term gale warnings. Nonetheless, dangerous marine conditions can be expected on Monday morning. Seas increase to 4-8 feet behind the line and winds remain, turning SSW at 20-25 knots for Monday afternoon. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain showers likely, slight chance of thunderstorms. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ230- 236. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ231>234. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 5 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ235-237-250. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ251. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ254-255. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ256. && $$ |
| #1248886 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:30 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 627 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 ...New AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Very dry and breezy conditions today. Near critical fire weather conditions in place for portions of the region. - A brief push of cooler air will give a fall-like feel to the air tonight. Enjoy it while it lasts. - Generally speaking, the forecast through the next week is mostly dry and skews warmer than normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Cold front is pushing through our region this morning. In the front`s wake, expect gusty north to northeast winds and much drier air. Most areas north of I-10 are expected to have dew points drop into the 40s by the afternoon, with Brazos Valley counties possibly dropping into the 30s. Temperatures across southeast Texas are expected to average in the low/mid 80s this afternoon, but our northern Piney Woods areas may stay in the 70s while our southwest counties near Matagorda could still push 90. Some of the hi-res guidance that was most aggressive on "CAA" has backed off somewhat since yesterday. But the HREF probability of gusts over 30 MPH is still quite high, near 100 percent in the Brazos Valley, 40-60 percent in the Houston area, and 60-80 percent over the bays and the Gulf. Best chance of gusts over 30 MPH will be during the mid morning to early afternoon hours. Our western counties, particularly the Brazos Valley counties, are forecast to be close to Red Flag Warning criteria. Most areas are expected to drop into the 50s tonight. A taste of Fall during what should be actual Fall. Southeast flow resumes on Monday, gradually increasing moisture levels through Tuesday as well as cranking temperatures back towards the 90 degree mark. A frontal boundary is expected to push through SE Texas on Tuesday, bringing a chance of isolated to scattered showers (most expected to remain dry). Less hot and drier air moves back in by Wednesday in the front`s wake. But onshore flow returns again by Thursday, bringing back the mugginess and keeping temperatures warmer than normal. We`ll have fall....one day... Self && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Cold front is in the process of moving through the area. There is some patchy fog and some patches of 1500ft cigs in advance (UTS southward) as of this writing. But with the frontal passage in the next couple hours, this will be whisked away leaving sunny skies and gusty n/ne winds 15g20-27kt into the early afternoon hours. Speeds will begin to diminish after 18z...eventually becoming light and veering to a more easterly direction overnight. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 A cold front will be pushing off the coast this morning bringing a steady increase in north and northeast winds and building seas in the morning and afternoon hours. A Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect. Winds and seas will begin to gradually subside later in the afternoon and night. Onshore flow resumes Monday and continues Tuesday, followed by another front that`s expected to bring a brief period east to northeast winds by Wednesday. Winds then veer back to the southeast by Thursday and steadily increase into Thursday night. 47 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Near critical fire weather conditions today across parts of the region...especially along and west of a College Station to Wharton line. We will monitor trends and the potential for a short fuse Red Flag Warning cannot be ruled out. Breezy and much drier conditions move into the region behind a frontal boundary this morning. Widespread minimum afternoon RH values between 20 and 30 percent expected inland and mid 40s coast. Meanwhile, north to northeast winds in the 15 to 20 mph range with some gusts to 25 mph possible into the mid afternoon hours. Southeast winds resume on Monday with a corresponding increase in RH values. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 82 53 91 66 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 86 57 88 69 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 86 72 83 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330- 335. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ350-355- 370-375. && $$ |
| #1248885 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 612 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 604 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 - Cold front moves through Sunday bringing drier/breezy conditions. - Small Craft Advisory in effect across the coastal waters on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 A cold front moving through North Texas will push into South Texas by sunrise Sunday. Not much change in expectations with this front, expecting mainly a moderate northerly wind and lower dewpoints to spread across the region...temporarily. NBM and other deterministic global models have backed off a bit on how low dpts will get, especially in the coastal bend, but ensembles and high res guidance still holding on to mid 60s dpts reaching the coast Sunday afternoon. Will start to see the return of surface moisture before Sunrise Monday though. Low temperatures for some areas likely to occur earlier in the night before starting to increase before sunrise with the increasing moisture. This return flow could bring some fog to south and eastern portions of the area. We will have to keep an eye on fire weather conditions for Sunday with decreasing RH values, but think winds will be light enough to alleviate much concern. The remainder of the period will feature the aforementioned moisture return with continued above normal temperatures. A couple of weak boundaries to approach the area, but dont look to have much fanfare if they do move through, essentially similar to what we`ll see tomorrow with just briefly lower humidity. An isolated streamer or sea breeze shower will be possible at times, but nothing to really key in on, with only ~20% at any time for the rest of the week. In terms of coastal flooding potential, think concern for tomorrow is fairly low. While we will see a few hours of northeasterly winds that can increase tides along local beaches, not sure the duration is enough to have much of an impact. PETSS guidance indicates below 1.8ft MSL for tomorrow, but some indications of an increase as we head into next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 With the frontal passage this morning, a broken layer of clouds with bases ranging from 1.0-1.5k ft has resulted in brief MVFR conditions at KCRP. Fog near KVCT has resulted in reductions in VIS as low as 1/4 SM. These reductions in flight categories persist through mid-morning when increasing N/NE`l winds (15-20 kt gusting as high as 25-30kt) will mix drier air in. Overnight, winds subside again and with warm front surging north, resulting in increased confidence in fog across the Brush Country and inland Coastal Plains and the return of more MVFR/IFR conditions by the end of the TAF cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 A cold front will bring fresh to strong north to northeasterly winds to the area on Sunday. A small craft advisory is in effect through Sunday evening. Onshore flow returns by Sunday night into Monday. There is a low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers across the offshore waters on Sunday, followed by dry conditions through mid- week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 A cold front moving through tomorrow will bring a drop in RH to low levels across much of the area - though coastal counties likely to remain above thresholds. Could see a brief overlap of some moderate winds with the low RH in the early afternoon, but looks like only a couple of hours before winds decrease to light levels, so will not issue an elevated fire concern statement at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 91 68 89 71 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 91 57 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 95 68 96 71 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 94 64 95 68 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 91 71 88 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 94 64 96 69 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 93 65 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 86 75 85 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ231-232- 236-237-250-255-270-275. && $$ |
| #1248884 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 614 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 608 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 * Life-threatening rip currents return Sunday into Monday and again next weekend. * Beaches may narrow or become impassable during high tide cycles next week. * Above normal temperatures continue with record or near record warmth across the Rio Grande Valley Sunday into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 A surface low drags a frontal boundary southward into Deep South Texas by Sunday afternoon setting up a comfortable but breezy Sunday with a northeasterly wind shift and little else. Temperatures will not drop with this front and POPs remain very low, less than 10 percent. The subtropical ridge then returns through next week, with another weak frontal boundary and surface high gradually working southeastward mid to late week, maintaining generally dry conditions through the period for most locations with a low, less than 15 percent, rain chance along the sea breeze Wednesday through Friday. Low pressure in the Southern Plains will strengthen the pressure gradient next Friday and Saturday, bringing back a warm breeze along the lower Texas coast. Another frontal boundary with weak low pressure at the surface arrives on Saturday with a low (20 percent) chance of rain. Well above normal temperatures continue through the period, approaching record highs across the RGV Sunday through Tuesday. There is a moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk Sunday and Tuesday along the Rio Grande. A moderate rip current risk returns Sunday through Monday and again Friday into Saturday. Long period swell may also help narrow beaches along high tide cycles as astronomical tides begin to increase this week. Current MHHW observations are 1 foot above guidance, which begins to run near Coastal Flood Statement criteria by high tide Sunday afternoon. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 608 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Generally VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF cycle at all TAF sites. Currently there is some shallow ground fog in the HRL area that has been coming and going for the last several hours. That fog should burn off shortly after sunrise. Generally light winds are expected for the TAF cycle as well. && .MARINE... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 A northeasterly push behind the frontal boundary works south across coastal waters late Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon. SCEC conditions are becoming more likely, with a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions possible across the bay and mainly nearshore waters late Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon. Have low confidence in SCA winds at this time. There is a brief low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms along the front, mainly offshore Sunday morning. Southeasterly flow returns early next week with a long period easterly swell as high pressure persists across the northern Gulf. A brief and weak northeasterly wind shift arrives Wednesday, returning to southeasterly Thursday through Saturday. The pressure gradient strengthens next weekend, increasing winds and building seas. Another low (15 to 20 percent) chance of rain arrives mainly offshore Wednesday through Friday, with a low to medium (20 to 30 percent) chance on Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Relative humidity values drop Sunday afternoon to near or below 30 percent across Jim Hogg and Starr counties and below 20-25 percent across Zapata County. At this time, 20 foot winds remain near or below 10 mph, with the strongest wind gusts generally prior to the lowest relative humidity values or after humidity returns. Given the persistent dry conditions and abnormally dry to moderate drought ongoing across Zapata County, fire concerns are low but not zero given this setup, and likely fall shy of a Fire Danger Statement. Still, future monitoring may be necessary if winds arrive stronger than expected or moisture drops further and faster. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Record high temperatures may be approached Sunday through Tuesday across the Rio Grande Valley, especially Sunday and Tuesday in Brownsville and Tuesday in McAllen. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 93 75 91 75 / 10 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 95 70 94 69 / 10 0 0 0 MCALLEN 98 74 97 74 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 98 70 97 70 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 79 86 79 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 74 89 73 / 10 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248883 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 702 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 700 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 - Scattered showers and a few isolated storms are possible today and once again on Monday afternoon. - Gusty easterly winds will result in dangerous rip currents at all east coast beaches today. - The combination of onshore winds and the approaching new moon in the lunar cycle will result in continued minor flooding along the east coast of South Florida within 1.5 to 2 hours of high tide. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1258 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 05z Mesoanalysis as well as recent surface observations from across South Florida indicate that mid-level ridging and a dry and comfortable airmass still remain in place across the region early this morning. It certainly feels fantastic out there with widespread dewpoints in the low to mid 60s courtesy of a residual plume of dry air at the surface and light easterly flow. Similar to last night, the 00z MFL upper air sounding still depicts an atmospheric profile that is characteristic of mid-level ridging directly overhead with a stout subsidence inversion at 850mb. The 00z MFL upper air sounding recorded a precipitable water value of 1.03 inches, which remains below the 10% percentile for this time of year. But a pattern change is forecast over the next several hours and the atmospheric ingredients are already coming into view in real time. Winds are already beginning to veer east-southeasterly across the region and will veer more southeasterly as the morning goes on. Why is this subtle wind shift important? It signals the start of the departure (and lessening influence) of an expansive area of surface high pressure over the western Atlantic waters and it kicks off the return of deeper moisture to the region. Shower activity across the region is expected to gradually pick up in coverage through the remainder of today. While a subsidence inversion and the usual hallmarks of mid-level ridging are still being picked up on recent local observations, mid- level winds above South Florida has become more zonal in nature over the last several hours indicating the continued weakening of what was once strong ridging aloft. A long-wave trough currently across the central United States will continue to amplify as it reaches the Great Lakes region later this morning. The development of a jet- streak ahead of the main trough axis will enhance an area of low pressure over the Great Lakes today. A sprawling frontal boundary connected to the aforementioned distant surface low pressure will sweep eastwards across the southeastern United States (and north and central Florida) during the day today. The surface wind field across South Florida will respond to this feature accordingly, remaining out of a southeasterly to southerly direction today. This will result in warm air advection (W.A.A.) which will allow for a plume of deeper atmospheric moisture to arrive into the region, especially during this afternoon. While the best synoptic dynamics are still forecast to remain well to the north of the region, the GFS/European as well as some mesoscale models continue to show a mid-level shortwave propagating along at the base of the trough across Central Florida during the second half of today into the mid morning hours of Monday. The combination of mid-level vorticity, diurnal heating, and a plume of deeper precipitable water values (1.8 to 2.0 inches) lifting northwards into the region will support the development of showers as well as a few isolated thunderstorms across most of the region today. Forecast model soundings from mesoscale models show modest instability (Surface based CAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) and steep 0-3km low level lapse rates. While moisture return will saturate the vertical column up to 700mb, there will still be plenty of mid-level dry air aloft. The mixing of this dry air down to the surface during the day could serve as a limiting factor for coverage. The dry air aloft may also support the potential of some gusty winds with shower and storm activity this afternoon. For now have maintained today`s chances of precipitation to be in the 20-50% range. As winds remain light out of a southeasterly to southerly direction, temperatures and humidity will be higher today during the afternoon hours. Forecasted highs will range from the middle to upper 80s along both coasts to temperatures in the low 90s across inland southwestern Florida. As the mid-level trough lifts north across the northeastern United States tonight into Monday, the distant surface low attached to the boundary will lose synoptic forcing. This will result in the previously mentioned frontal boundary stalling out just to the north of South Florida. The departing mid-level shortwave may provide a second boost in instability during this time frame as 500mb temperatures remain in the -8C to -9C range, perhaps keeping shower and thunderstorm activity going on during the early morning hours of Monday just offshore of the east coast of South Florida. With our region remaining to the south of the boundary in the warm sector during the day on Monday, a residual plume of moisture will remain across the region which may once again allow for a few afternoon showers and isolated storms. Ample sunshine and light winds are forecast for most of the day, with temperatures remaining slightly above average across the region with forecasted highs in the upper 80s to low 90s area-wide. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1258 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 The subtropical jet and upstream waves will remain active across the eastern United States through mid-week as additional lobes of mid- level vorticity amplify and advect eastward across the Great Lakes. Associated surface lows will also advect from west to east across the Great Lakes dragging sprawling frontal boundaries across most of the eastern half of the country. With the stalled frontal boundary across Central Florida becoming frontolytic in nature by Tuesday, enough residual low level moisture will remain to support the development of a few afternoon showers for most of the region. Temperatures will remain slightly above average for this time of year during this time frame with forecasted afternoon high temperatures each day during the middle to late park of the week remaining in the upper 80s to low 90s each afternoon. A frontal boundary during the second half of the week (late Wednesday into Thursday) will usher in the return of drier conditions as drier air works in the region. The continued parade of mid-level troughs across the eastern United States during this time frame will result in mid-level winds over South Florida remaining out of a northerly to northwesterly direction, keeping conditions quiet and dry. Breezy northeasterly winds late this week may once again set up a temperature gradient during the afternoon hours across the region, with the ocean breeze keeping the east coast cooler than out west (SW Florida). && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 700 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 E/SE winds increase to 10-15 kts today, with a brief S/SW wind mid to late afternoon at APF. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon into early evening which may result in brief flight restrictions. && .MARINE... Issued at 1258 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Winds will veer southeasterly and remain light to moderate today across the local waters as a frontal boundary approaches the region. The arrival of more northeasterly swell later today may increase wave heights slightly across the northern Atlantic waters into the 4- 6 feet range. Elsewhere, wave heights will remain in the 3-5 feet range across the rest of the Atlantic waters with seas in the 2-3 range across our local Gulf waters. Showers and isolated storms are forecast to develop across the waters today into tonight, especially over the Gulfstream waters. If thunderstorm activity does indeed develop over the waters, erratic wind shifts and locally gusty winds could occur near and around any storms. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1258 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 A high risk of rip currents will continue across all east coast beaches of South Florida today. While the risk of rip currents will begin to subside on Monday as onshore flow lessens, the risk of high rip currents will persist at Palm Beach County beaches. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1258 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 The combination of higher than normal tidal levels due to the lunar cycle and residual northeasterly swell will result in the continued potential of minor coastal flooding within 1.5 to 2 hours of high tide along the east coast over the next several days. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for coastal Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties through at least Monday evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 86 75 87 76 / 40 30 30 20 West Kendall 87 74 88 74 / 50 30 30 20 Opa-Locka 88 75 88 75 / 40 30 30 20 Homestead 85 75 86 75 / 50 30 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 85 75 86 75 / 40 30 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 86 75 87 76 / 30 20 20 10 Pembroke Pines 89 75 89 75 / 40 30 30 20 West Palm Beach 86 75 87 75 / 30 20 20 10 Boca Raton 88 75 88 75 / 30 20 20 10 Naples 89 74 89 72 / 20 10 10 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248882 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:03 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 655 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Warmer today ahead of the next system approaching from the northwest. A line of gusty showers crosses the area tonight with mainly dry and seasonable weather expected next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 215 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - A cold front approaches Sunday afternoon and crosses the area Sunday night, bringing increasing clouds, gusty SW winds, and chance for showers. S and SW winds continue to gradually ramp up today, owing to the compressing pressure gradient ahead of the surface cold front. Winds SW winds gust to 25-30mph inland and up to 35mph near the coast during the afternoon and evening, and we warm up a few degrees over what we saw on Saturday. Forecast highs well into the 70s across the area this afternoon, with some low 80s likely across portions of SE VA and NE NC. 00z guidance remains in good agreement overall regarding the cold frontal passage this evening into the overnight. Rain showers approach from the west late this afternoon, with slight chance PoPs pushing into far western portions of the area (US-15 corridor area) by around or just before sunset. For most of the area, rain chances don`t increase until the evening hours, with likely to categorical rain chances (70-90%) spreading toward the I-95 corridor around 9- 11pm, and toward the coast around midnight and thereafter. QPF has leveled off, with the fast eastward movement of the convective line a major limiting factor for QPF. That said, the majority of the guidance remains clustered between around 0.25", highest over the northwestern half of the area with lower amounts for the SE. Forecast soundings continue to show very little instability but with strong shear/dynamics aloft. A few lightning flashes are possible as the well-forced, narrow convective line slides across the area. Aside from areas along and just north of the Albemarle Sound just south of US-158, most of the local area is now included in a Day 1 Marginal Risk for strong to locally severe winds Sunday night. Latest CAM guidance still show meager SBCAPE in our area ahead of the front. However, despite the meager instability and unfavorable diurnal timing, strong winds aloft may be able to mix down to the surface with this convective line. Rain chances quickly drop off from SW to NE after midnight. Behind the front, winds turn westerly, remaining breezy into Monday morning. Look for early morning low temps Monday morning in the upper 40s along and west of I-95, low to mid 50s coastal areas. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Cooler and breezy Monday behind the front. - Another cold front expected to cross the region late Tuesday into Wednesday with limited moisture. Cooler/drier air slowly filters into the area on Monday with clouds clearing out along the coast through midday, as shortwave ridging briefly crests over the east coast. W-NW winds remain breezy through Monday afternoon, with high temps in the mid to upper 60s. Light winds back to the SW Monday night with lows in the low to mid 40s, though a few upper 30s are possible Tue morning in typically cooler rural/sheltered locales well NW of RIC. A quick-moving northern stream shortwave drops out of the Canadian Prairies Monday night and Tuesday, sending another weak/dry cold front toward the area Tue/Tue night. Warmer in brief return flow ahead of this next front, with highs mainly in the low 70s. Precip chances with this front are low (with probs dropping again with the 00z guidance). Low (slight) PoPs remain in place for now Tue night, mainly for a few showers over the Northern Neck into the Eastern Shore. Slightly slower timing will bring a cool night, with lows in the 40s to low 50s. Cooler/drier air slowly filters into the area on Monday with clouds clearing out along the coast through midday, as shortwave ridging briefly crests over the east coast. W-NW winds remain breezy through Monday afternoon, with high temps in the mid to upper 60s. Light winds back to the SW Monday night with lows in the low to mid 40s, though a few upper 30s are possible Tue morning in typically cooler rural/sheltered locales well NW of RIC. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 215 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Seasonable temperatures and dry weather for midweek to weekend period. Large upper trough anchors north of the area mid to late week, keeping the region mainly dry and cool. Temperatures are forecast to be very close to seasonal norms with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Some upper 30s will be possible in the typically cooler rural spots. Latest ensemble guidance shows very low chances for appreciable precip during the extended forecast period. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 655 AM EDT Sunday... High pressure is noted offshore early this morning with VFR conditions across the region. Winds are mainly S or SSW 5-10 kt. SSW winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt by mid morning, continuing into the evening hours. Any precip at the main terminals will hold off until after 00z tonight. Models continue to show a narrow, low-topped line of convection moving rapidly across the area. PROB30 groups at RIC, SBY, PHF, and ORF have been included with this forecast. Confidence at ECG is too low to include at this time. Instability will be minimal so little, if any, thunder is expected. However, included -TSRA in the PROB30 groups to allow for VRB winds gusting ~35 kt with the convective line. Brief MVFR visibility and/or CIG restrictions are possible with the convective line. Drier air and westerly winds will arrive behind the cold front later tonight. Dry/VFR conditions return Monday but remaining breezy in the cooler, post-frontal airmass. VFR conditions prevail through mid to late week with a dry cold front crossing the region late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. && .MARINE... As of 215 AM EDT Sunday... - Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all local waters today into Monday for both south winds ahead of a cold front and west winds behind it. Peak winds will occur from this evening through Monday morning. - The cold front likely crosses the waters between midnight and 2 AM. Occasional 34 kt gusts are possible both ahead of and behind the front. Additionally, gusty showers accompanying the frontal passage will likely necessitate SMWs. Sub-advisory winds continue through this morning as high pressure is centered just southeast of the local area and continues to push offshore. Have started SCAs for the ocean due to swell of ~5 ft that is coming in from the ENE. Winds are currently S at ~15 kt on the bay/ocean, with 1-3 ft waves on the bay. Marine conditions will deteriorate throughout the day today and especially this evening/tonight as strong low pressure tracks to our north, dragging a cold front through the waters. A tightening pressure gradient ahead of the front will allow S winds to increase to ~20 kt by late today and briefly to ~25 kt for a few hours tonight right before the FROPA (which will likely occur between midnight and 2 AM over the waters). Gusts will generally be below gale force ahead of the front, but occasional 35 kt southerly gusts can`t be ruled out across the northern coastal waters. The wind abruptly turns to the W-WSW following the FROPA, with speeds of 20- 25 kt expected through Monday AM with frequent 30 kt gusts. Could also see a few gusts to 35 kt across the northern coastal waters behind the front Monday AM. For now, will keep the SCAs for all zones which go into effect today and run through Monday. In addition to the synoptic wind, a line of gusty showers is expected to accompany the front, which will likely produce brief gusts of 35-45 kt. Therefore, will likely need to issue SMWs to account for this. Westerly winds gradually decrease throughout the day on Monday with sub-SCA winds expected by Monday evening. The next cold front is progged to cross the local waters late Tuesday into Wednesday with another round of SCAs possible with both southerly winds ahead of the front Tuesday night and westerly winds behind it on Wednesday. Wind speeds are generally forecast to be 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt from Tue night-Wed. Seas continue to build today, and will reach 5-8 ft by early tonight with SCA level seas persisting until Monday evening. Waves on the bay build to 2-5 ft by tonight. Sub-SCA waves/seas are expected on Tuesday with low-end SCA waves/seas possible Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 215 AM EDT Sunday... Water levels have increased by 0.5-0.75 ft in the upper bay during the past 24 hours thanks to successive flood tides at the mouth of the bay. While ebb tides are forecast to become dominant today/tonight, the increasing south winds will likely keep water levels elevated (and tidal anomalies may increase by a few more tenths of a foot in the upper bay). Widespread minor flooding is expected with the next two high tide cycles (today and again tonight). Localized moderate flooding appears increasingly likely at Bishop`s Head for both high tide cycles, and moderate flooding is possible at Cambridge and Crisfield during tonight`s high tide cycle. Will continue to note that tidal anomalies will quickly increase on the eastern shore tonight when the wind becomes WSW immediately following the FROPA. How close this occurs to high tide will likely dictate whether Cambridge/Crisfield see moderate flooding (or just minor) tonight. Have upgraded to Coastal Flood Warnings for Dorchester, Wicomico, and Somerset Counties, as there is decent confidence that moderate flooding will occur somewhere tonight. Also, water levels at Bishop`s Head are forecast to crest at 4.0 ft MLLW both today and tonight. Will have advisories for today and tonight for the tidal Rappahannock/Potomac, and have added advisories for tonight for the bay side of Accomack County (as Saxis could touch minor flood stage) as well as Inland Worcester County (due to potential tidal flooding along the Pocomoke River with the WSW winds tonight). Water levels fall early next week with no worse than nuisance to low- end minor flooding on Monday with no flooding forecast from Monday night onward. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MDZ021- 022. Coastal Flood Warning from 10 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT Monday for MDZ021-022. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ023. Coastal Flood Warning from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Monday for MDZ023. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Monday for MDZ024. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Monday for VAZ099. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for VAZ075>078- 521-522. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ654-656-658. && $$ |
| #1248881 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 647 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 - HIGH risk of life-threatening rip currents continues today and has been extended through Monday; entering the ocean is strongly discouraged. - A long period swell builds across the local waters today, resulting in poor boating conditions especially near inlets. - Weak cool front will approach late today/tonight then stall/wash out across south-central Florida Monday. Reinforcing cool front forecast to push through mid week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Today-Monday...High pressure departs to the east today as a weak cool front pushes into the deep South. Southerly flow between these 2 systems will produce a warm day with max temps in the mid to upper 80s. This afternoon, moisture will be increasing ahead of the front across the north and a slug of moisture lifting up from south FL. Have drawn 20-30% PoP Orlando northward this afternoon/eve and a small 20% PoP across Martin county. The front is forecast to reach our northern sections late tonight/early Mon and sag slowly southward during Monday across central FL, losing momentum. As the front stalls Mon across southern sections, locally higher moisture pooling along what remains of the boundary will keep isolated rain chances Okeechobee to the Treasure coast. Despite a wind shift out of the NE behind this weak front, temperatures will remain at or slightly above normal in the mid 80s, except near 80/lower 80s across Volusia county. Upper 80s are forecast once again around Lake Okeechobee. Tue-Sat...Mostly dry and warm Tue with light onshore flow and upper 80s returning northward over the interior, mid 80s coast. A reinforcing cool front is forecast to push more cleanly through the area Wed bringing temps back down to normal Thu-Fri. It will not be a significant cool down as wind flow quickly turns NE around building high pressure to the north. While it looks mainly dry late week, the onshore (E/NE) pressure gradient looks to tighten between high pressure to the north and lower pressure to the south. This could produce breezy/windy conditions along the coast and a possible return of coastal hazards (high surf/beach erosion). More seasonable temperatures in the low to mid 80s Thu- Sat. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 High pressure will continue to push seaward over the western Atlantic today as a weak cool front approaches from the northwest. The front is forecast to stall then wash out over south central Florida Monday and Tuesday. A reinforcing dry cold front is forecast to push through Wednesday. Poor boating conditions are forecast today as a long period swell (13-14 sec) propagates through the local waters. This will produce combined seas of 6 ft over the open Atlc and 4-5 ft close to the coast. This will produce poor to even hazardous conditions at inlets especially during the outgoing tide. Winds today will veer southeast to south 10-14 knots. Winds turn NE Monday behind the weak front as it sags southward across the waters then washes out across the southern waters by Tue. The swell will gradually subside Mon-Tue with light onshore flow Tue. But winds will become north behind the reinforcing front Wed and NE Thu. Seas will build and become more choppy mid week behind this next front especially in the Gulf Stream. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 647 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 VFR conditions expected outside of convection through the TAF period. Light ESE/SE winds early this morning will become southerly by mid day and veer to the SSW/SW across the interior this afternoon and remain SSE/SE near the coast with the developing east coast sea breeze. Dry conds are forecast through 18z then will see low shower chances for KLEE by mid aftn ahead of the next front. Isolated showers may push eastward thru nrn terminals from KLEE-KISM and east to KMCO-KSFB and KDAB from late aftn thru early evening. Recent HRRR guidance has higher thunder chances for KSUA by late afternoon and have added VCTS for KSUA from 21z-00z. Any lingering shower activity is forecast to dissipate or move east into the Atlantic after 03Z on Monday, with winds becoming light tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 86 69 80 68 / 20 20 0 0 MCO 88 70 86 69 / 20 20 10 0 MLB 85 71 84 72 / 10 20 10 0 VRB 86 70 85 71 / 10 20 10 10 LEE 87 68 84 67 / 30 20 10 0 SFB 88 69 84 68 / 20 20 10 0 ORL 88 70 84 69 / 20 20 10 0 FPR 86 70 86 70 / 10 20 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1248880 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 630 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 - Rain chances have increased today to 60-90% ahead of a cold front. An isolated strong/severe storm is possible, but chances for severe weather remain low (around 5%). A marginal risk (level 1 of 5) is in place for the western half of the area. - Despite beneficial rainfall Sunday, widespread forecast amounts have a high probability (>70% chance) of being under one inch. This will not be enough to relieve the drought. - Dry conditions and decreasing humidity next week will result in elevated fire concerns continuing as drought persists. Exercise caution if dealing with flames. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Showers and storms are marching across the Southeast this morning and are forecast to arrive between 5-7am CDT for our SE Alabama and FL Panhandle counties. Those showers and storms trudge east across the region throughout the morning before exiting the Suwannee River Valley by the middle of the afternoon. A few of the storms may be strong to severe with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather across the western half of the area. The main concern is damaging wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph (around 5% chance), but a tornado or two cannot be completely ruled out (near 2% chance). The low-level jet (LLJ) is forecast to strengthen to 35-45 knots in the pre-dawn hours across Alabama as an H5 shortwave approaches; the core of the LLJ is then forecast to lift northeast, away from our area, throughout the morning. Meanwhile, MLCAPE will increase just after sunrise to 500-1500 J/kg, especially for areas along and south of US-84 in SE Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. So there is a brief window this morning for some stronger storms, especially across the aforementioned areas. As the morning wears on and the LLJ heads NE, the line of showers and storms should weaken. That said, some gusty winds will remain possible as the line moves east across the area. Temperatures climb into the lower to middle 80s with some late-day sunshine. The cold front moves through this evening with breezy northwesterly ushering in cooler temperatures as we`ll settle into the upper 40s to middle 50s by Monday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Dry conditions return to the region to start the work week. Another cold front is forecast to swing through Tuesday afternoon. However, meager moisture return ahead of the front will keep rain chances at less than 10%. Another cold front approaches the region next weekend along with better rain chances next Saturday and/or Sunday. Highs climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s each afternoon throughout the week with lows in the mid-upper 40s Tuesday morning, mid 50s Wednesday, and back in the mid-upper 40s Thursday and Friday. Finally. A true taste of fall arrives to the area. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 A line of showers and embedded thunderstorms continues to head east along the northern Gulf coast this morning. While most of the thunderstorms are offshore now, we do anticipate them developing closer to the coast and moving inland as the morning progresses, so kept the TSRA in the TEMPO groups in the TAFs. There are some indications of a secondary line of showers attempting to develop along the actual cold front in some of the model guidance, which is the main reason for the longer duration TEMPO groups to account for that potential. Southerly winds are anticipated ahead of the front before turning more out of the west immediately behind it and the northwest later tonight as high pressure moves in. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Showers and thunderstorms, potentially with strong gusts and waterspouts, will move through the marine area this morning and afternoon. Moderate southerly to southwesterly winds prevail ahead of a cold front before turning northerly and increasing to Advisory levels tonight through mid-Monday morning. Seas will be around 3 to 5 feet. Gentle northeasterly breezes Monday become light to moderate out of the northwest Tuesday as another cold front slides through the northeastern Gulf. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are on the way this morning ahead of a cold front. Some of the thunderstorms may produce gusty, erratic winds as they move through. A wetting rain is likely for areas along and west of a line from Albany, GA to Tallahassee, FL. Transport winds shift from SW to NW at 10-15 mph today with good dispersions. Fire weather concerns remain elevated much of the upcoming work week. MinRH values plunge to between 25-35% Monday before recovering to 30-40% Tuesday afternoon. A reinforcing cold front arrives Tuesday, turning Transport Winds more out of the west to northwest Tuesday and Wednesday. Much drier air arrives Wednesday and Thursday with MinRH values nearing critical values, or between 15-25%, especially Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Rainfall totals of 0.25" to 0.75" are forecast for much of the region outside of the I-75 corridor, where closer to 0.1" to 0.25" are expected. The reasonable high-end totals of 1.0" to 1.5" are most likely across the Florida Panhandle into the western Florida Big Bend. Given the very dry antecedent conditions, flooding concerns are minimal. These rainfall totals, even if they verify on the higher end, won`t be a drought-buster. Combine that with little to no rain in the forecast after today, drought conditions will persist, if not worsen. For more information on drought conditions locally, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 82 55 77 53 / 80 10 0 0 Panama City 83 57 78 56 / 90 0 0 0 Dothan 82 50 76 47 / 90 0 0 0 Albany 80 50 76 48 / 80 0 0 0 Valdosta 82 53 76 51 / 70 10 0 0 Cross City 84 60 81 59 / 60 10 0 0 Apalachicola 81 59 76 60 / 80 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Monday for GMZ730- 755-765-775. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Monday for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1248879 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:15 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 601 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will shift offshore today ahead of a cold front tonight. Minimal rain chances as the moisture starved front crosses the region. Dry high pressure will return and dominate through much of the week. A dry cold front will move through Tuesday night, mainly affecting winds and temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure centered offshore yet holding on along the coast will move out ahead of an approaching cold front. SW winds will increase ahead of the front through the day with afternoon gusts reaching 25- 30 mph. Any rain chances will be ahead of the front in the late afternoon inland and then the coast in the evening. The front will be offshore by midnight with winds decreasing in strength in some towards the end of the period. Any rainfall will be brief and light as the front clears our area fairly quickly (~6hrs), and no thunder is expected. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Bulk of the period will be dominated by weak surface high and flat flow aloft. Very dry air mass in place through late Tue will keep skies clear. Precipitable water stays under 0.50", running as low as .030" on Mon. Tue night into Wed a stacked low moving across the Great Lakes drags a cold front across the area. The front is moisture starved, precipitable water briefly touches 1" Tue night but with limited forcing, no surface based instability and a lack of dynamics (which will be well north and closer to the low) the chance for rain along and ahead of the front Tue night is about zero. Near normal temperatures Mon run a little below normal Mon night. Bigger concern Mon will be afternoon humidity. Current forecast of RH AoB 30% for much of the area may not be low enough. Forecast soundings show very dry air, single digit RH, just above the top of the mixed layer during peak heating. The guidance always struggles to resolve the dry air in these types of air masses. Warm advection ahead of the front will push highs into the mid 70s to upper 70s while cold advection Tue night is delayed and scattered clouds help keep lows in the mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Dry cold front will be offshore Wed morning with modified high building in from the west. Although broad 5h trough sets up over the East Coast, the high moving in is not particularly cold. So while temperatures drop below normal, especially Thu when the cooler air will be in place, they won`t drop much below normal. Very dry air air mass Wed/Thu, precipitable water AoB 0.50", will keep skies clear with mixing allowing for humidity as low as 25% in some areas both afternoons. High shifts offshore Fri and Sat with return flow developing, setting up weak warm advection. Temperatures climb above normal to end the week while a slight increase in low level moisture will allow for some cloud development. However, the abundance of deep dry air will keep the forecast free of rain. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR. Some ground fog is impacting the KILM ASOS but looking outside impacts to the runway look unlikely so will not be adding this to the TAF, though restrictions should lift shortly after sunrise as SSW winds start gusting ahead of a cold front. Gusts will be ~20-25 kts through the daytime with a non-zero chance for showers/MVFR CIGs to impact a terminal, though probabilities are low. Most of the TAF is dedicated to the shift from SW to NW winds, which should be fully established across the area by midnight with winds dropping to ~5 kts. Confidence on LLWS with the frontal passage has not increased as winds should remain fairly gusty through the evening hours with the frontal passage. Extended Outlook...VFR. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... SW flow will increase as a cold front approaches the area, moving over the waters around midnight with winds becoming NW. Increasingly gusty winds and some 6 ft seas ~20 nm out will keep Small Craft Advisory conditions through the period. Monday through Thursday... Waters will be affected by 2 cold front this week. The first moves offshore prior to Mon morning with the enhanced post front winds due to cold advection ongoing. Winds drop off during the morning hours with offshore flow 10kt or less by Mon afternoon. No sign of any northerly surge Mon night as the high to the south is quick to shift offshore. Return flow increases Tue into Tue night ahead of the next cold front, which passes dry in the early morning hours on Wed. Strongest winds will be in the pre- frontal regime with solid 20 kt possible late Tue into Tue night. Some weak cold advection Wed into Thu, but offshore flow struggles to hit 15kt. Elongated ridge axis shifts offshore early Thu with light and variable winds in the afternoon. Seas will be on somewhat of a roller coaster this week. Starting off 3-5 ft Mon morning then falling to 1-2 ft Mon night and first part of Tue. The increasing southerly flow later Tue and Tue night will bring seas back up to 3-4 ft Tue night, but then the development of offshore flow Wed into Thu drops seas back to 1-2 ft. Seas will be a mix of an easterly swell and wind wave varying from south to southwest and even a bit of northerly at times. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 9 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1248878 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:42 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion...DELAYED National Weather Service San Juan PR 529 AM AST Sun Oct 19 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... * Dangerous beach and ocean conditions today: Large breaking waves and strong rip currents will make swimming and small craft operations hazardous along the north and east coasts of Puerto Rico, Culebra. * Wetter weather later this week: Moist air linked to a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean could bring periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms from Wednesday through Saturday. * Potential for flooding and gusty winds: Heavy downpours, localized flooding, and windy, squally conditions are possible later this week, depending on how close and how strong Invest 98L becomes. Stay alert and monitor forecast updates. * U.S. Virgin Islands: Dangerous rip currents are expected along north- and east-facing beaches tonight, with wetter and windier conditions possible later this week as tropical moisture increases over the area. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 523 AM AST Sun Oct 19 2025 Overnight conditions remained relatively calm, although bands of showers developed across the Atlantic waters, Caribbean waters, and the Mona Passage. Some of these showers did produce occasional lightning, mainly within the heaviest rainfall. The temperatures along the coastal and urban areas remained in the upper 70s to low 80s, while along the mountains they stayed in the upper 60s to low 70s degrees Fahrenheits. Winds were light and variable. During the first half of the day, winds will be east-southeasterly, becoming more easterly during the afternoon as the remnants of a frontal boundary continue to move away from the area. The presence of the remnants will allow the thunderstorm activity to develop from time to time across the waters. Precipitable water model guidance indicates a slight drying trend today, with mid-level relative humidity near normal values for this time of year and 500 mb temperatures around -6 degrees Celsius. Even so, residual low- level moisture, in combination with local effects and diurnal heating, will promote afternoon convection. Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon hours, some of which could produce frequent lightning, gusty winds, and localized flooding, mainly where sea-breeze convergence and orographic lift are strongest. A similar weather pattern is expected on Monday but with a tropical wave to the south of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. This setup will sustain another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, particularly across the interior and western sections of Puerto Rico. While the bulk of the tropical moisture will remain south of the islands, localized flooding, gusty winds, and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning will remain possible with stronger convection. By Tuesday, a drier and more stable air mass will settle over the region, while the tropical wave remains south of the area. This will result in limited shower activity, with only isolated brief showers expected during the morning hours. The rest of the day will feature mostly fair skies, light winds, and stable conditions, making Tuesday the driest and most stable day of the short-term period. However, by Tuesday night into midweek, conditions are forecast to gradually become wetter as a broad area of low pressure, currently, being monitored by the National Hurricane Center and given a 50 percent chance of development over the next 7 days and 10 percent within the next 48 hours, moves closer to the region, bringing increasing tropical moisture and the potential for unsettled weather later in the week. At this time we encourage, citizens and visitors to continue monitoring the forecast from the National Hurricane Center and your local National Weather Service fro any changes in the forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 523 AM AST Sun Oct 19 2025 The long-term period continues to highlight an increasingly unsettled and wet weather pattern across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, associated with a deep surge of tropical moisture linked to Invest 98L, a tropical wave currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center. The latest NHC outlook indicates that environmental conditions may become more conducive for gradual development as the system moves westward across the Caribbean, with a medium (50%) chance of tropical cyclone formation within seven days. Deterministic guidance from the 19/00Z GFS run remains consistent with previous cycles, showing a strong tropical cyclone developing over the central Caribbean, interacting with the Central American Gyre (CAG). In this scenario, the system is steered northeastward by the CAG, enhancing a southerly flow that advects deep tropical moisture into the local area during the latter half of the week. Ensemble guidance and other global models, including the ECMWF, support a similar broad moist environment, though differ in system track and timing, with many solutions stalling the disturbance over the Caribbean waters. In terms of dynamics aloft, the GFS soundings indicate a very moist column, with precipitable water values exceeding 2.5 inches (above the 90th climatological percentile, well above normal for this time of year) from Wednesday through the weekend. Relative humidity values near saturation between 850-500 mb confirm a deep moisture layer, supporting scattered to widespread convection. However, warming mid-level temperatures and weak lapse rates suggest limited instability aloft. The latest model solutions also marked an increase in low-level wind speeds consistent with the approach of a strong low-level circulation or a tight pressure gradient. This supports the potential for gusty, squally conditions, especially over coastal and elevated areas. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) signal enhanced probabilities for excessive rainfall and strong wind gusts from mid- to late-week, particularly for the western half of the CWA, consistent with the deterministic and ensemble trends. Given the projected deep tropical moisture plume, gusty southerly winds, and potential for squally weather, the main threats during this period include urban and flash flooding, especially in low- lying or poor-drainage areas, localized river rises due to prolonged rainfall, landslides and rockfalls in areas of steep terrain and saturated soils, and squally conditions with strong gusts accompanying showers and thunderstorms. Nevertheless, forecast confidence remains low, as the eventual track, intensity, and proximity of Invest 98L to the forecast area will dictate the magnitude and timing of local impacts. A more organized, slower-moving, or closer system could substantially increase rainfall totals and wind hazards, while a weaker, faster- moving, or more distant disturbance would limit these effects. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 523 AM AST Sun Oct 19 2025 VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals this morning with light and variable winds. Aft convt is anticipated mainly TJBQ after 19/17Z across TJBQ and TJPS. Convection should dissipate after 22Z, leading to improving conditions and prevailing VFR overnight. Some bands of showers may linger over the TAF sites. Winds will become light and variable overnight with land-breeze effects along coastal areas. Overall, aviation conditions will remain mostly favorable outside. && .MARINE... Issued at 523 AM AST Sun Oct 19 2025 The remnants of a frontal boundary will continue move north promoting shower and thunderstorm activity across the offshore Atlantic waters at times. A long period northerly swell will continue to spread across the local Atlantic waters and passages today, with hazardous marine conditions for small craft expected by early this morning. Please, continue to monitor the forecast updates over the coming days. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 523 AM AST Sun Oct 19 2025 A high risk of rip currents is in effect along the north- and east- facing beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra as a long-period northerly swell moves across the northern regional waters. These swells will gradually increase in height through this afternoon, leading to hazardous surf conditions with breaking waves of up to 12 feet along exposed beaches. For this reason, a High Surf Advisory is also in effect. Additional High Rip Current Risk Statements will likely be issued throughout the day for the U.S. Virgin Islands. Beachgoers and visitors are urged to exercise extreme caution, heed local advisories, and avoid swimming in high-risk areas, as life- threatening rip currents are expected to persist through early this week before gradually improving. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST Monday for PRZ001-002-005-008- 010-012. VI...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Monday for AMZ711-712-716. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM AST Monday for AMZ723-726-741-742. && $$ |
| #1248877 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 455 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push offshore tonight, followed by high pressure through Tuesday. Another cold front will then arrive Tuesday night, with high pressure to follow. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Through Daybreak: Early morning surface observations show the boundary layer has decoupled in a number of the areas with either calm or light/variable winds being reported. Temperatures at 19/05z were running several degrees cooler than 19/01z NBM output as a result. Winds should begin to pick up prior to daybreak as the area begins to feel the far eastern periphery of the pre-frontal 1000-850 hPa low-level jet. In addition, the increasing southerly flow could advect some marine-based stratocumulus inland along parts of the lower South Carolina coast over the next few hours. These factors should help level out temperatures a bit as daybreak approaches, but observed lows may very well end up quite a bit cooler in spots. National "Break the Glass" criteria is not being met locally for temperatures, so no local adjustments to the NBM were made to account for these colder areas. Through Tonight: A large amplitude shortwave will pivot across the eastern U.S. through tonight helping to drive a cold front east across the Southeast States. The front is on target to push offshore tonight, keeping the local area in the warm sector through this evening. Moisture return head of the front is the most intense across parts of the Deep South where widespread convection is ongoing early this morning. Convection is forecast to push east ahead of the front through the day while encountering increasingly drier air over the Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia. Model cross-sections also show weakening upper forcing/UVVs with the tail end of the approaching shortwave progged to pass by well to the north. These factors should result in a gradual weakening of convection as it moves out of western/central portions of South Carolina/Georgia and into the Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia. There remains some uncertainty on how quickly this weakening will occur with some CAM members suggesting a solid amount of (mostly light) convection will clear the coast while others show little/no activity reaching the beaches. In fact, convection may come in two weakening waves--one well ahead of the front and another with the front itself. Pops this afternoon and evening were aligned with the 19/01z NBM as the lack of severe weather or other convective hazards prohibit any "Break the Glass" deviation from that guidance. Pops range from 50% across far interior Southeast Georgia as well as Allendale and Hampton Counties in the Lowcountry with 20-30% at the coast. Highs this afternoon will reach into the lower 80s away from the coast with mid-upper 70s at the beaches. Modest post frontal cold air advection will help push overnight lows into the upper 40s/lower 50s inland with upper 50s/near 60 at the beaches. It will become locally breezy by late morning and continue into the evening hours as rising mixing heights begin to tap in a belt of higher winds aloft associated with the pre-frontal low-level jet. Gusts could reach as high as 25-30 mph at times, but should remain well below Wind Advisory criteria (gusts 40-55 mph). Lake Winds: Conditions look borderline for a Lake Wind Advisory today and tonight. Winds over land are expected to become increasingly gusty as the day progresses and winds aloft associated with the pre-frontal low-level jet intensify. However, water temperatures on Lake Moultrie are running around 70 degrees which will limit mixing quite a bit over the open lake waters, especially the degree of gustiness. It will likely become somewhat breezy along the lakeshore, especially the southern lakeshore, but gusts should still remain somewhat muted. Expected winds to peak 15-20 kt this afternoon and overnight. There will be a chance frequent gusts could reach as high as 25 kt this evening just ahead and immediately behind the passage of the cold front, but the duration of >25 kt gusts is somewhat uncertain. HREF probabilities for wind gusts at or above 25 kt is only averaging 40-50% ahead/just behind the front while the NBM is considerably lower at <10%. This further supports the marginality of this lake wind event. Winds were held below Lake Wind Advisory at 15-20 kt for now, but the need for a Lake Wind Advisory will be reassessed later today as additional guidance is received and wind trends are more readily identified. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Very quiet weather will prevail Monday through Wednesday as high pressure remains the dominant feature. Temperatures will be quite seasonable. Tuesday looks like the warmest of the three days due to warm advection ahead of a reinforcing dry cold front. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will prevail late week into the weekend. Dry conditions will continue with temps a few degrees below normal. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 19/12z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through the period. Gusty winds will develop by mid-morning and continue through late evening as a cold front approaches. Gusts as high as 20-25 kt are possible. A weakening area of showers, possibly in two waves, could approach the terminals this evening. It is uncertain how far east these two clusters will make it before dissipating. VCSH was highlighted at all three terminals from 21-03Z at KSAV and 22-04z at KCHS/KJZI. FROPA will occur by mid-late evening with skies clearing thereafter. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: Southerly winds will slowly increase today and tonight as a cold front pushes offshore. Winds are expected to reach 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt likely over the South Carolina nearshore and Georgia offshore legs where a Small Craft Advisory has been posted through 6 AM Monday. Seeing frequent gusts to 25 kt is a much more borderline across Charleston Harbor and the Georgia nearshore waters, so flags were not posted for these areas just yet. That decision is deferred to the afternoon forecast cycle once additional data are received. SEas will build to 3-4 ft, except 4-5 ft over the Georgia offshore waters and the South Carolina nearshore waters from South Santee-Edisto Beach. Monday through Friday: High pressure will maintain quiet conditions with no headlines expected. Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk is in place for all beaches today due to increasing winds and building seas. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Monday for AMZ350-352-374. && $$ |
| #1248875 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:33 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 420 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase today through Monday as winds veer southeasterly. -Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until winds decrease in the Florida Straits. -A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for all of the Florida Keys island communities. -Drier weather expected mid week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 416 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Sunday opens with a slightly odd weather pattern across the Florida Keys. Shallow showers across the Florida Straits identified by the KBYX radar are moving northwest at near 15 knots. GOES East Nighttime microphysics enhancements show swaths of stratocumulus over the Straits, and celiometers at both EYW and MTH measured overcast skies shortly after midnight. Dew points rose from the lower 70s yesterday to mid 70s. Breezes along the reef also veered southeasterly in the early morning. Traces of rain were observed last night in Key West, which sets the stage for today`s weather. Synoptically, the weather features of note at the surface are a high pressure system off the eastern seaboard and a developing low pressure system over the Great Lakes. Aloft, a mid latitude trough is digging south towards the Tennessee Valley while a broad ridge remains over Mexico. The resulting low level wind field will direct tropical moisture across the Keys today and tomorrow, and upper level dynamics will support diverging air near the Keys for the next 36 hours. The odd element to this pattern is despite a slightly favorable weather pattern for thunderstorms aloft, surface showers are disconnected from the upper level winds. Despite expecting to come in for thunderstorms, lightning activity has been sparse. It remains to be seen if the atmosphere stays that quiet. The upper altitude trough is progged to move east by Tuesday, and another round of sinking air will move across the Florida Keys by midweek. Breezes are not forecast to collapse, at the lowest winds are forecast to remain near or above 10 knots. However, on Thursday, a broad high pressure system is expected to build over the eastern CONUS. Current model runs show the high may build above 1028 mb. For the Florida Keys, this means Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible next weekend. Shower chances, after being near 10 percent for most of the week, are forecast to rise back to near normal, around 20 percent, for next weekend. The windy season is inching closer and closer, so enjoy the lulls before the end of the season! && .MARINE... Issued at 416 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until winds decrease for the Straits of Florida. From synopsis, high pressure over the western Atlantic will move away from the US coastline today which will allow a lingering frontal boundary to lift north across the Florida Keys. Shower chances will be elevated today through Monday, and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Expect drier air and lighter winds mid week while low pressure builds over the eastern CONUS. Late in the week, another high will move north of Florida and freshen breezes to moderate to fresh. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 416 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail today. With that said, a wet pattern is setting up across the region. As a result, there will be a chance for sub VFR periods and a rare thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Surface winds will be gentle to moderate out of the east to southeast. && .CLIMATE... In 1876, a Hurricane moved north northeast from Havana, with the eye passing over Key West where the minimum pressure was 28.73" (973 mb) and the peak wind was 88 mph on the south side of the eye wall. The eye lasted 2 hours and 15 minutes in Key West. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 87 78 86 77 / 30 30 30 40 Marathon 85 77 85 77 / 50 40 40 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248873 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:33 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 328 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 - HIGH risk of life-threatening rip currents continues today and has been extended through Monday; entering the ocean is strongly discouraged. - A long period swell builds across the local waters today, resulting in poor boating conditions especially near inlets. - Weak cool front will approach late today/tonight then stall/wash out across south-central Florida Monday. Reinforcing cool front forecast to push through mid week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Today-Monday...High pressure departs to the east today as a weak cool front pushes into the deep South. Southerly flow between these 2 systems will produce a warm day with max temps in the mid to upper 80s. This afternoon, moisture will be increasing ahead of the front across the north and a slug of moisture lifting up from south FL. Have drawn 20-30% PoP Orlando northward this afternoon/eve and a small 20% PoP across Martin county. The front is forecast to reach our northern sections late tonight/early Mon and sag slowly southward during Monday across central FL, losing momentum. As the front stalls Mon across southern sections, locally higher moisture pooling along what remains of the boundary will keep isolated rain chances Okeechobee to the Treasure coast. Despite a wind shift out of the NE behind this weak front, temperatures will remain at or slightly above normal in the mid 80s, except near 80/lower 80s across Volusia county. Upper 80s are forecast once again around Lake Okeechobee. Tue-Sat...Mostly dry and warm Tue with light onshore flow and upper 80s returning northward over the interior, mid 80s coast. A reinforcing cool front is forecast to push more cleanly through the area Wed bringing temps back down to normal Thu-Fri. It will not be a significant cool down as wind flow quickly turns NE around building high pressure to the north. While it looks mainly dry late week, the onshore (E/NE) pressure gradient looks to tighten between high pressure to the north and lower pressure to the south. This could produce breezy/windy conditions along the coast and a possible return of coastal hazards (high surf/beach erosion). More seasonable temperatures in the low to mid 80s Thu- Sat. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 High pressure will continue to push seaward over the western Atlantic today as a weak cool front approaches from the northwest. The front is forecast to stall then wash out over south central Florida Monday and Tuesday. A reinforcing dry cold front is forecast to push through Wednesday. Poor boating conditions are forecast today as a long period swell (13-14 sec) propagates through the local waters. This will produce combined seas of 6 ft over the open Atlc and 4-5 ft close to the coast. This will produce poor to even hazardous conditions at inlets especially during the outgoing tide. Winds today will veer southeast to south 10-14 knots. Winds turn NE Monday behind the weak front as it sags southward across the waters then washes out across the southern waters by Tue. The swell will gradually subside Mon-Tue with light onshore flow Tue. But winds will become north behind the reinforcing front Wed and NE Thu. Seas will build and become more choppy mid week behind this next front especially in the Gulf Stream. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 144 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 VFR conditions expected outside of convection through the TAF period. Light ESE/SE winds early this morning will become southerly by mid day and veer to the SSW/SW across the interior this afternoon and remain SSE/SE near the coast with the developing east coast sea breeze. Dry conds are forecast through 18z then will see low shower chances for KLEE/KSUA by mid aftn ahead of the next front. Isolated showers may push eastward thru nrn terminals from KLEE-KISM and east to KMCO-KSFB and KDAB from late aftn thru early evening. PROBs still low in the CAMs so have continued VCSH with 06z terminals. Any lingering shower activity is forecast to dissipate or move east into the Atlantic after 03Z on Monday, with winds becoming light tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 86 69 80 68 / 20 20 0 0 MCO 88 70 86 69 / 20 20 10 0 MLB 85 71 84 72 / 10 20 10 0 VRB 86 70 85 71 / 10 20 10 10 LEE 87 68 84 67 / 30 20 10 0 SFB 88 69 84 68 / 20 20 10 0 ORL 88 70 84 69 / 20 20 10 0 FPR 86 70 86 70 / 10 20 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1248872 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:30 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 318 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms will move southeast into the Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening, with the greatest rain chances north of the Tampa Bay. Frequent lightning and gusty winds will accompany the strongest storms. - Cooler and drier conditions will move in Wednesday night through the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 In the upper levels, an elongated trough over the central US is forecast to swing through the eastern US today and Monday, followed by a second broad trough that will cross the Great Lakes Region during the middle and later portions of the week. At the surface, the sub tropical ridge axis is extending from the Atlantic across northern Florida, but will shift east today and tonight as the first trough sweeps a weak cold front into the Florida Peninsula. Southeasterly and southerly low level flow ahead of this front will build atmospheric moisture, leading to increasing temperatures and humidity, and allowing for chances of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and overnight. High resolution models are showing that the convection associated with the front will be rapidly dying out as it moves south through the area, so the highest rain chances will generally be north of Interstate 4. However, it is worth noting that for northern portions of the forecast area, the NBM has been increasing rain chances over the last few cycles, with PoPs now up to 40-60 percent in Levy County this afternoon. Since the upper level trough will remain well to the north of Florida, this front will only be strong enough to bring noticeably lower temperatures and dew points into the Nature Coast counties on Monday, then conditions will begin to moderate on Tuesday as surface ridging weakly builds back in across Florida. On Wednesday, the second trough will bring a reinforcing cold front through the Florida Peninsula. This looks to be a dry frontal passage, with rain chances remaining minimal through the end of the week. Lower temperatures will advance a bit farther south behind this front, with morning lows in the 50s to mid 60s across the area Thursday and Friday mornings. Lower humidity will also be felt across the area through the second half of the week. By Friday and Saturday, surface ridging will setup north of Florida, with easterly flow allowing temperatures and humidities to start to increase again. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 VFR conditions are expected to hold through the morning. Showers and storms will move southeast into the Tampa Bay area this afternoon and evening, with around a 30 percent chance of storms impacting Tampa Bay area terminals (KTPA, KPIE, and KSRQ) after 18z. The storms are expected to die out before reaching terminals farther south or inland, although isolated storms and reduced flight categories cannot be completely ruled out during the late afternoon and evening hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 A weak cold front will move southeast through the waters this afternoon and evening, bringing chances of showers and storms and briefly increasing offshore winds north of Tarpon Springs to around Small Craft Exercise Caution levels. High pressure builds in behind the front, with northeast and east winds setting up for the first half of the week and low rain chances. Winds will slightly increase again on Wednesday and Thursday as a secondary front moves south through the area, with Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines possibly being needed. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Humidity increases today ahead of a weak cold front that will pass through the area this afternoon and evening. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible with the frontal passage, with the highest rain chances north of Interstate 4. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 88 73 88 71 / 20 20 10 0 FMY 89 73 90 72 / 10 10 10 0 GIF 89 70 87 69 / 20 20 10 0 SRQ 87 72 88 70 / 20 20 10 0 BKV 88 66 86 64 / 30 20 10 0 SPG 84 73 85 72 / 20 20 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1248871 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:54 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 241 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Another pleasant day can be expected today with mild temperatures and breezy southerly winds. A strong frontal system arrives early Monday morning, and brings a quick line of heavy rain and strong winds. The front moves offshore Monday afternoon with drying conditions and continued breezy winds. Drier weather returns for Tuesday, but another frontal system arrives Wednesday ushers in a cooler, cloudier, and more unsettled weather pattern for late in the workweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Key Points * Mild and breezy today The upper-level ridge axis begins to move offshore today, allowing flow aloft to turn SW ahead of a strong shortwave through over the Ohio River Valley. WAA with the SW flow aloft will bring 850mb temps up to +11C today, which will translate to high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Skies start off mostly sunny, but more high-level clouds move in during the afternoon ahead of the shortwave, leaving filtered sunshine to overcast skies. Winds gradually increase through the day, gusting up to 20mph from the south && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Key Points * Strong frontal system moves through the region Monday morning * Very heavy rain and difficult driving conditions likely * Strong to damaging winds possible * Rain arrives in western MA/CT around 5-7am and Eastern MA/RI around 8-11am Tonight: Continued WAA overnight will keep overnight temps mild, in the mid to upper 50s. Winds aloft continue to increase as a southerly LLJ at 40-50 knots moves into the region. It will be tough to mix those winds down to the surface at night, but gusts of 20-30mph remain possible. Rain for the most part should hold off until closer to daybreak, but some showers and light drizzle are possible ahead of the main line of showers and thunderstorms. Monday The shortwave trough arrives along with a strong surface front early Monday morning, and moves quickly offshore by mid Monday afternoon. Guidance is in rather good agreement on the timing of the line of heavy rain or Fine Line. The Fine Line should be approaching western MA/CT between 5-7 am and arriving at the I-95 corridor between 8-11 am. The line will then be moving offshore, likely by 1-2 pm in the afternoon. Although Fine Line will be moving rather quickly, it will pack a punch as it moves through and create disruptions to the morning commute. PWATS ahead of the line will be surging to near 1.5 inches, which, combined with the strong forcing from the shortwave, will likely result in rain rates exceeding 1-2 inches per hour. Strong to possibly damaging winds may also accompany the line as low-level winds around 2kft will be approaching 50-60mph. There is a large amount of uncertainty on whether these winds aloft will be able to reach the ground, especially so early in the day when a nocturnal inversion usually exists. However, guidance suggests MUCAPE values could be around 200-400 J/kg, which could lead to a couple of stronger cells/thunderstorms within the greater line and lead to those stronger winds aloft reaching the surface. The main impact of the line of heavy rain will be very difficult driving conditions for roughly 30-60 minutes on Monday morning; however, I would not rule out the possibility of a couple severe wind gusts inside a stronger shower/thunderstorm. Temperatures on Monday likely do not follow a diurnal curve, with high temperatures likely being met in the morning, reaching the mid- 60s. Behind the rain and the front, temperatures begin to fall into the upper 50s. It will still be breezy behind the front with WSW gusts of 20-25mph. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages: * Drier Tue but a mix of clouds and sun with seasonable temps in the low to mid 60s. * Another strong cold front moves in for Wed, heralding a cooler and more unsettled weather pattern change in store for late in the workweek. Temps by late week trend cooler on the highs with seasonable lows. Details: Pretty active, changeable workweek weather-wise, with another pretty strong cold frontal passage both again on Wed. A deep trough then becomes established late in the week, ushering in a cooler, cloudier and more unsettled weather pattern to close out the workweek. Brief dry weather returns on Tue, stuck between storm systems, but with a mix of clouds and sun. Highs in the lower to mid 60s which is around seasonable. Another strong cold front then arrives on Wed, bringing another period of solid rain chances; while the timing is still subject to adjustments, current indications are for a similar timing of rains as those of Monday (morning to early afternoon). Highs on Wed in the mid 60s. Passage of this second cold front then ushers in a cooler and more unsettled weather pattern change for late in the week, as deep cyclonic flow aloft governs the Northeast states. Expect a period of cooler, cloudier weather with perhaps a stray shower or two but not widespread nor resulting in any washouts. 850 mb temps drop to near zero Celsius which could bring highs in the 50s for Thu and Fri, a little cooler than normal for late October. Nighttime lows may not drop as far given cloud cover, with lows in the mid 40s which are slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update: Today... High Confidence VFR. Increasing southerly winds gusting up to 15-20 knots. Tonight...High Confidence. Increasing mid-level clouds. IFR-MVFR ceiling spread from west to east 06z-09z. Rain may enter western MA and CT as early as 09-11z Monday...High Confidence Strong frontal system will bring a quick albeit heavy line of showers and possibly a rumble of thunder Monday morning. The line should enter western MA between 10-12z, and progress east moving offshore by 18z. CIGS will quickly drop to IFR/LIFR with strong SSE winds gusting up to 40 knots. Behind the line, CIGS gradually rise to VFR for the afternoon. KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. VFR. Increasing southerly winds gusting up to 20 knots in the afternoon KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. VFR. Increasing southerly winds gusting up to 20 knots in the afternoon Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely, slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Monday...High confidence. Key Point * Dangerous Marine conditions expected Monday morning to early afternoon * Short period of heavy rain and gale to storm force winds possible. Tranquil boating conditions expected today with 2-4 foot seas and increasing southerly winds at 10-20 knots. Winds continue to increase overnight, gusting 20-30 knots. A strong line of showers and thunderstorms will approach the waters from the west early Monday morning. This line is expected to bring a brief period of heavy rain and strong winds on the order of 40-50 knots. Given the short duration, likely under 2 hours, this line will best be handled with short-fused special marine warnings rather than longer-term gale warnings. Nonetheless, dangerous marine conditions can be expected on Monday morning. Seas increase to 4-8 feet behind the line and winds remain, turning SSW at 20-25 knots for Monday afternoon. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain showers likely, slight chance of thunderstorms. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ230- 236. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ231>234. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 5 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ235-237-250. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ251. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ254-255. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ256. && $$ |
| #1248870 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 133 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 128 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 - A line of thunderstorms will push through the area late tonight through the late morning hours. A few storms may become strong to severe with damaging wind gusts and tornadoes possible. - A High Risk of rip currents will continue through this afternoon. Before heading to the beach, check the local conditions and follow the posted beach warning flags. - The Small Craft Advisory has been expanded to now include Mobile Bay, the Mississippi Sound, Pensacola Bay, and all Gulf zones for tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 A line (QLCS) of storms approaching from the west will quickly progress eastward at around 30 mph. The bulk of the precipitation should be east of the Tombigbee River by daybreak, and exit the forecast area by the late morning hours. As deep southerly to southwesterly winds increase ahead of a cold front approaching the forecast area, MLCAPE values will increase to between 700 to 1500 J/KG. 0-3km Helicity values are expected to increase to between 200-300 m2/s2 through the remainder of the night into Sunday morning. Any of the stronger storms within the QLCS will have the potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Clouds will clear from west to east throughout the morning hours soon after the rain ends and the cold front passes through, followed by sunny skies across the entire are in the afternoon. A much cooler and drier airmass will filter into the region from the north, and effectively result in breezy northerly winds tonight into Sunday. Another cold front moves across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, keeping the dry weather conditions persisting through the rest of the week. High temperatures today will range from 80-85 degrees before cooling slightly to between 75-80 degrees on Monday. Highs will rebound to 80-85 degrees on Tuesday before slightly cooling again to between 75-80 degrees through the remainder of the week. Low temperatures tonight and Monday night will be in the middle 40s to lower 50s inland and the middle 50s to around 60 degrees along the immediate coast. Our coolest and driest airmass of the season so far infiltrates the area Wednesday night with overnight lows bottoming out in the lower to middle 40`s for most locations, upper 40`s nearer the coast. We gradually follow a warming trend for overnight lows the rest of the week into the weekend. Beach Forecast: A High Risk of rip currents will continue through this afternoon. Northerly winds occurring tonight into Monday will allow the rip current risk to become MODERATE tonight, followed by a LOW risk Monday through Thursday. /22 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 VFR conditions will persist throughout the forecast with light northeasterly winds around 10 knots. Isolated to scattered showers will likely develop across south-central Alabama and into the Florida Panhandle; however, minimal impact to aviation is expected. Storms should subside tonight with vfr conditions persisting into tomorrow morning. BB-8 && .MARINE... Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 The Small Craft Advisory has been expanded to now include Mobile Bay, the Mississippi Sound, Pensacola Bay, and all Gulf zones for tonight as winds shift northerly and then northeasterly in the wake of a cold front. Winds gradually relax and turn easterly Monday afternoon into Monday night, and then becoming northerly shifting to westerly on Tuesday. A light to moderate offshore flow then prevails Tuesday night through Thursday in the wake of another cold front. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 83 51 77 52 / 40 0 0 0 Pensacola 85 57 77 57 / 80 0 0 0 Destin 85 59 78 60 / 100 0 0 0 Evergreen 85 47 80 46 / 70 0 0 0 Waynesboro 78 46 76 48 / 20 0 0 0 Camden 80 46 76 46 / 50 0 0 0 Crestview 84 49 78 46 / 90 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for GMZ670-675. && $$ |
| #1248869 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:33 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 220 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Warmer today ahead of the next system approaching from the northwest. A line of gusty showers crosses the area tonight with mainly dry and seasonable weather expected next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 215 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - A cold front approaches Sunday afternoon and crosses the area Sunday night, bringing increasing clouds, gusty SW winds, and chance for showers. S and SW winds continue to gradually ramp up today, owing to the compressing pressure gradient ahead of the surface cold front. Winds SW winds gust to 25-30mph inland and up to 35mph near the coast during the afternoon and evening, and we warm up a few degrees over what we saw on Saturday. Forecast highs well into the 70s across the area this afternoon, with some low 80s likely across portions of SE VA and NE NC. 00z guidance remains in good agreement overall regarding the cold frontal passage this evening into the overnight. Rain showers approach from the west late this afternoon, with slight chance PoPs pushing into far western portions of the area (US-15 corridor area) by around or just before sunset. For most of the area, rain chances don`t increase until the evening hours, with likely to categorical rain chances (70-90%) spreading toward the I-95 corridor around 9- 11pm, and toward the coast around midnight and thereafter. QPF has leveled off, with the fast eastward movement of the convective line a major limiting factor for QPF. That said, the majority of the guidance remains clustered between around 0.25", highest over the northwestern half of the area with lower amounts for the SE. Forecast soundings continue to show very little instability but with strong shear/dynamics aloft. A few lightning flashes are possible as the well-forced, narrow convective line slides across the area. Aside from areas along and just north of the Albemarle Sound just south of US-158, most of the local area is now included in a Day 1 Marginal Risk for strong to locally severe winds Sunday night. Latest CAM guidance still show meager SBCAPE in our area ahead of the front. However, despite the meager instability and unfavorable diurnal timing, strong winds aloft may be able to mix down to the surface with this convective line. Rain chances quickly drop off from SW to NE after midnight. Behind the front, winds turn westerly, remaining breezy into Monday morning. Look for early morning low temps Monday morning in the upper 40s along and west of I-95, low to mid 50s coastal areas. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Cooler and breezy Monday behind the front. - Another cold front expected to cross the region late Tuesday into Wednesday with limited moisture. Cooler/drier air slowly filters into the area on Monday with clouds clearing out along the coast through midday, as shortwave ridging briefly crests over the east coast. W-NW winds remain breezy through Monday afternoon, with high temps in the mid to upper 60s. Light winds back to the SW Monday night with lows in the low to mid 40s, though a few upper 30s are possible Tue morning in typically cooler rural/sheltered locales well NW of RIC. A quick-moving northern stream shortwave drops out of the Canadian Prairies Monday night and Tuesday, sending another weak/dry cold front toward the area Tue/Tue night. Warmer in brief return flow ahead of this next front, with highs mainly in the low 70s. Precip chances with this front are low (with probs dropping again with the 00z guidance). Low (slight) PoPs remain in place for now Tue night, mainly for a few showers over the Northern Neck into the Eastern Shore. Slightly slower timing will bring a cool night, with lows in the 40s to low 50s. Cooler/drier air slowly filters into the area on Monday with clouds clearing out along the coast through midday, as shortwave ridging briefly crests over the east coast. W-NW winds remain breezy through Monday afternoon, with high temps in the mid to upper 60s. Light winds back to the SW Monday night with lows in the low to mid 40s, though a few upper 30s are possible Tue morning in typically cooler rural/sheltered locales well NW of RIC. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 215 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Seasonable temperatures and dry weather for midweek to weekend period. Large upper trough anchors north of the area mid to late week, keeping the region mainly dry and cool. Temperatures are forecast to be very close to seasonal norms with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Some upper 30s will be possible in the typically cooler rural spots. Latest ensemble guidance shows very low chances for appreciable precip during the extended forecast period. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 125 AM EDT Sunday... High pressure is noted offshore early this morning with VFR conditions across the region. Winds are mainly S or SSW 5-10 kt. SSW winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt by mid morning, continuing into the evening hours. Any precip at the main terminals will hold off until after 00z tonight. Models continue to show a narrow, low-topped line of convection moving rapidly across the area. PROB30 groups at RIC, SBY, PHF, and ORF have been included late in the period with this forecast. Confidence at ECG is too low to include at this time. Instability will be minimal so little if any thunder is expected. However, included -TSRA in the PROB30 groups to allow for VRB winds gusting ~35 kt with the convective line. Brief MVFR visibility and/or CIG restrictions are possible with the convective line. Drier air and westerly winds will arrive behind the cold front later Sunday night. Dry/VFR conditions return Monday but remaining breezy in the cooler, post-frontal airmass. VFR conditions prevail through mid to late week with a dry cold front crossing the region late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. && .MARINE... As of 215 AM EDT Sunday... - Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all local waters today into Monday for both south winds ahead of a cold front and west winds behind it. Peak winds will occur from this evening through Monday morning. - The cold front likely crosses the waters between midnight and 2 AM. Occasional 34 kt gusts are possible both ahead of and behind the front. Additionally, gusty showers accompanying the frontal passage will likely necessitate SMWs. Sub-advisory winds continue through this morning as high pressure is centered just southeast of the local area and continues to push offshore. Have started SCAs for the ocean due to swell of ~5 ft that is coming in from the ENE. Winds are currently S at ~15 kt on the bay/ocean, with 1-3 ft waves on the bay. Marine conditions will deteriorate throughout the day today and especially this evening/tonight as strong low pressure tracks to our north, dragging a cold front through the waters. A tightening pressure gradient ahead of the front will allow S winds to increase to ~20 kt by late today and briefly to ~25 kt for a few hours tonight right before the FROPA (which will likely occur between midnight and 2 AM over the waters). Gusts will generally be below gale force ahead of the front, but occasional 35 kt southerly gusts can`t be ruled out across the northern coastal waters. The wind abruptly turns to the W-WSW following the FROPA, with speeds of 20- 25 kt expected through Monday AM with frequent 30 kt gusts. Could also see a few gusts to 35 kt across the northern coastal waters behind the front Monday AM. For now, will keep the SCAs for all zones which go into effect today and run through Monday. In addition to the synoptic wind, a line of gusty showers is expected to accompany the front, which will likely produce brief gusts of 35-45 kt. Therefore, will likely need to issue SMWs to account for this. Westerly winds gradually decrease throughout the day on Monday with sub-SCA winds expected by Monday evening. The next cold front is progged to cross the local waters late Tuesday into Wednesday with another round of SCAs possible with both southerly winds ahead of the front Tuesday night and westerly winds behind it on Wednesday. Wind speeds are generally forecast to be 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt from Tue night-Wed. Seas continue to build today, and will reach 5-8 ft by early tonight with SCA level seas persisting until Monday evening. Waves on the bay build to 2-5 ft by tonight. Sub-SCA waves/seas are expected on Tuesday with low-end SCA waves/seas possible Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 215 AM EDT Sunday... Water levels have increased by 0.5-0.75 ft in the upper bay during the past 24 hours thanks to successive flood tides at the mouth of the bay. While ebb tides are forecast to become dominant today/tonight, the increasing south winds will likely keep water levels elevated (and tidal anomalies may increase by a few more tenths of a foot in the upper bay). Widespread minor flooding is expected with the next two high tide cycles (today and again tonight). Localized moderate flooding appears increasingly likely at Bishop`s Head for both high tide cycles, and moderate flooding is possible at Cambridge and Crisfield during tonight`s high tide cycle. Will continue to note that tidal anomalies will quickly increase on the eastern shore tonight when the wind becomes WSW immediately following the FROPA. How close this occurs to high tide will likely dictate whether Cambridge/Crisfield see moderate flooding (or just minor) tonight. Have upgraded to Coastal Flood Warnings for Dorchester, Wicomico, and Somerset Counties, as there is decent confidence that moderate flooding will occur somewhere tonight. Also, water levels at Bishop`s Head are forecast to crest at 4.0 ft MLLW both today and tonight. Will have advisories for today and tonight for the tidal Rappahannock/Potomac, and have added advisories for tonight for the bay side of Accomack County (as Saxis could touch minor flood stage) as well as Inland Worcester County (due to potential tidal flooding along the Pocomoke River with the WSW winds tonight). Water levels fall early next week with no worse than nuisance to low- end minor flooding on Monday with no flooding forecast from Monday night onward. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MDZ021- 022. Coastal Flood Warning from 10 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT Monday for MDZ021-022. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ023. Coastal Flood Warning from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Monday for MDZ023. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Monday for MDZ024. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Monday for VAZ099. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for VAZ075>078- 521-522. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ654-656-658. && $$ |
| #1248868 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:30 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 229 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach from the west today, moving through tonight. Behind this front mild high pressure builds in through next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 230 AM Sun...High pressure will continue to push further offshore today, while cold front and upper trough approach from the west. Still expect the area to remain dry today. Despite the increasing cloud cover through the day, low level thickness values and SW flow support above normal temps...with highs in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 230 AM Sun...The front will move through tonight, bringing scattered showers and isolated tstms. Despite the very strong shear, instability will remain limited, so svr threat still looks low. However, showers could bring down some gustier winds. The front will sweep through late tonight and early Mon morning, with drier air pouring in. Lows will fall into the lower 50s inland and mid/upper 50s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 2 AM Sunday... Key Messages... - Mild and dry conditions expected through next week Mild and dry weather expected throughout the coming week following Sunday night`s cold frontal passage. This front will bring a return of slightly cooler temperatures with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s forecast for Monday/Tuesday. A reinforcing dry cold front is then forecast to push through ENC Tuesday night into early Wednesday with high pressure building in behind the front, which will keep temps mild through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 230 AM Sun...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. SW winds should limit fog threat early this morning. Increasing clouds through the day ahead on an approaching cold front. The front will move through tonight, bringing scattered showers. SW winds will gust 20-25 kt today. Periods of sub-VFR will be possible tonight with showers along the front. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 2 AM Sunday...Mostly VFR conditions are likely through the coming week with high pressure over the region as cooler and drier weather returns for the work week following Sunday night`s cold frontal passage. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 230 AM Sun...Latest obs show SW winds 5-15 kt with seas 3-7 ft, highest north of Ocracoke. Long period swell (13-14 sec) from distant low pressure will continue to impact the waters through the period. A cold front will approach the waters today, moving through tonight. The gradient will tighten with SW winds increasing to 15-25 kt this afternoon and tonight. SCAs continue for the coastal waters and sounds. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 2 AM Sunday...Winds turn to the northwest Monday behind the cold front, decreasing to 10-20 kts. Some 25 kt gusts may linger across the coastal waters early Monday morning, but expect gusts to quickly subside to around 20 knots or less by late morning. Winds again swing to southwesterly on Tuesday ahead of a reinforcing cold front, increasing again to 10-20 kts. Reinforcing cold front pushes through ENC Tuesday night, with winds becoming northwesterly at 10-20 knots Wednesday and Thursday. Waves subside to 5-8 ft Monday, becoming 2-4 ft by Tuesday. Could see some 5-6 footers build back in across the central coastal waters Tuesday night ahead of the approaching cold front, but waves will quickly subside again to 3-5 ft for the day on Wednesday before becoming 2-4 ft Thursday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ196-203-205. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NCZ205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Monday for AMZ135-231. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for AMZ150-156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154. && $$ |
| #1248867 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 206 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu Oct 18 2025 - Rain chances have increased today to 60-90% ahead of a cold front. An isolated strong/severe storm is possible, but chances for severe weather remain low (around 5%). A marginal risk (level 1 of 5) is in place for the western half of the area. - Despite beneficial rainfall Sunday, widespread forecast amounts have a high probability (>70% chance) of being under one inch. This will not be enough to relieve the drought. - Dry conditions and decreasing humidity next week will result in elevated fire concerns continuing as drought persists. Exercise caution if dealing with flames. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Showers and storms are marching across the Southeast this morning and are forecast to arrive between 5-7am CDT for our SE Alabama and FL Panhandle counties. Those showers and storms trudge east across the region throughout the morning before exiting the Suwannee River Valley by the middle of the afternoon. A few of the storms may be strong to severe with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather across the western half of the area. The main concern is damaging wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph (around 5% chance), but a tornado or two cannot be completely ruled out (near 2% chance). The low-level jet (LLJ) is forecast to strengthen to 35-45 knots in the pre-dawn hours across Alabama as an H5 shortwave approaches; the core of the LLJ is then forecast to lift northeast, away from our area, throughout the morning. Meanwhile, MLCAPE will increase just after sunrise to 500-1500 J/kg, especially for areas along and south of US-84 in SE Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. So there is a brief window this morning for some stronger storms, especially across the aforementioned areas. As the morning wears on and the LLJ heads NE, the line of showers and storms should weaken. That said, some gusty winds will remain possible as the line moves east across the area. Temperatures climb into the lower to middle 80s with some late-day sunshine. The cold front moves through this evening with breezy northwesterly ushering in cooler temperatures as we`ll settle into the upper 40s to middle 50s by Monday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Dry conditions return to the region to start the work week. Another cold front is forecast to swing through Tuesday afternoon. However, meager moisture return ahead of the front will keep rain chances at less than 10%. Another cold front approaches the region next weekend along with better rain chances next Saturday and/or Sunday. Highs climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s each afternoon throughout the week with lows in the mid-upper 40s Tuesday morning, mid 50s Wednesday, and back in the mid-upper 40s Thursday and Friday. Finally. A true taste of fall arrives to the area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 A line of showers and thunderstorms will march across the area later this morning and into the afternoon ahead of a cold front that surges through later this afternoon into the evening. The main challenge with this TAF package is the timing of the showers and thunderstorms. There are some indications a secondary line of showers and a few thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and impact our eastern TAF sites. Any showers and storms should be out of the area by 00Z tonight as winds turn northwesterly behind the front and VFR conditions prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Showers and thunderstorms, potentially with strong gusts and waterspouts, will move through the marine area this morning and afternoon. Moderate southerly to southwesterly winds prevail ahead of a cold front before turning northerly and increasing to Advisory levels tonight through mid-Monday morning. Seas will be around 3 to 5 feet. Gentle northeasterly breezes Monday become light to moderate out of the northwest Tuesday as another cold front slides through the northeastern Gulf. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are on the way this morning ahead of a cold front. Some of the thunderstorms may produce gusty, erratic winds as they move through. A wetting rain is likely for areas along and west of a line from Albany, GA to Tallahassee, FL. Transport winds shift from SW to NW at 10-15 mph today with good dispersions. Fire weather concerns remain elevated much of the upcoming work week. MinRH values plunge to between 25-35% Monday before recovering to 30-40% Tuesday afternoon. A reinforcing cold front arrives Tuesday, turning Transport Winds more out of the west to northwest Tuesday and Wednesday. Much drier air arrives Wednesday and Thursday with MinRH values nearing critical values, or between 15-25%, especially Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Rainfall totals of 0.25" to 0.75" are forecast for much of the region outside of the I-75 corridor, where closer to 0.1" to 0.25" are expected. The reasonable high-end totals of 1.0" to 1.5" are most likely across the Florida Panhandle into the western Florida Big Bend. Given the very dry antecedent conditions, flooding concerns are minimal. These rainfall totals, even if they verify on the higher end, won`t be a drought-buster. Combine that with little to no rain in the forecast after today, drought conditions will persist, if not worsen. For more information on drought conditions locally, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 82 55 77 53 / 80 10 0 0 Panama City 83 57 78 56 / 90 0 0 0 Dothan 82 50 76 47 / 90 0 0 0 Albany 80 50 76 48 / 80 0 0 0 Valdosta 82 53 76 51 / 70 10 0 0 Cross City 84 60 81 59 / 60 10 0 0 Apalachicola 81 59 76 60 / 80 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Monday for GMZ730- 755-765-775. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Monday for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1248865 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 144 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 251 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 - HIGH risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through the weekend; entering the ocean is strongly discouraged. - A long period swell builds across the local waters, maintaining poor boating conditions across the Gulf Stream and near inlets. - Weak cool front forecast to approach late today and stall across south-central Florida Monday bringing a small chance for showers. Reinforcing cool front forecast to push through mid week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Current-Tonight... Surface analysis indicates high pressure centered just offshore the Carolina coastline. Onshore flow is maintained locally on the south side of the high. A scattered cumulus field has spread east central Florida this afternoon, and a very dry airmass above 850mb has limited any precip. Expect dry conditions to continue through the evening and overnight with low temperatures ranging the low to mid 60s across the interior and mid to upper 60s along the coast. Sunday-Monday... High pressure extending across east central Florida is pushed further into the western Atlantic as a cold front approaches from the west-northwest. The front moves through the area into Monday before slowing or stalling across portions of south- central Florida. Limited rain chances (20-30%) return north and west of I-4 late in the day Sunday as moisture builds ahead of the front. Models also show isolated to scattered showers developing across south Florida on Sunday, and southerly flow could allow some to creep towards portions of the Treasure Coast counties. As the front stalls, locally higher moisture across the south will keep isolated rain chances along the Treasure Coast and near Lake Okeechobee on Monday. Temperatures climb above seasonal values early next week with highs in the mid 80s along the coast and upper 80s across the interior. Areas near and north of I-4 may see temperatures fall a few degrees on Monday, but many areas are forecast to remain in the mid to upper 80s. Tuesday-Friday... Mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday as the stalled frontal boundary across south-central Florida washes out and an area of broad high pressure builds. A second front approaches and passes central Florida mid week, working to reinforce dry air. The local pressure gradient tightens behind the front as high pressure slides across the southeast U.S. and low pressure attempts to organize in the southern Caribbean. Northerly winds begin to increase Wednesday, veering northeast into Thursday. Will monitor for a return of coastal hazards late week as breezy onshore flow becomes established. High temperatures mostly hold in the mid to upper 80s Tuesday and Wednesday, before becoming more seasonal Thursday and Friday behind the reinforcing front. && .MARINE... Issued at 251 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Poor boating conditions are forecast as a long period swell moves through the local waters late today and into Sunday. Small craft should exercise caution across the Gulf Stream as seas rebuild up to 6 ft. In addition, small craft should exercise caution near inlets. Seas subside and improve Monday, becoming widely 2-4 ft into mid week. Onshore winds veer southward Sunday as high pressure retreats seaward ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds further shift northeast Monday as the front slows and washes out south of Cape Canaveral. A reinforcing front passes the waters mid week and breezy northeast flow becomes established late week behind the front. Isolated to scattered showers are forecast over the local waters Sunday with mostly dry conditions building through the remainder of forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 144 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 VFR conditions expected outside of convection through the TAF period. Light ESE/SE winds early this morning will become southerly by mid day and veer to the SSW/SW across the interior this afternoon and remain SSE/SE near the coast with the developing east coast sea breeze. Dry conds are forecast through 18z then will see low shower chances for KLEE/KSUA by mid aftn ahead of the next front. Isolated showers may push eastward thru nrn terminals from KLEE-KISM and east to KMCO-KSFB and KDAB from late aftn thru early evening. PROBs still low in the CAMs so have continued VCSH with 06z terminals. Any lingering shower activity is forecast to dissipate or move east into the Atlantic after 03Z on Monday, with winds becoming light tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 86 69 80 68 / 20 20 0 0 MCO 88 70 86 69 / 20 20 10 0 MLB 85 71 84 72 / 10 20 10 0 VRB 86 70 85 71 / 10 20 10 10 LEE 87 68 84 67 / 30 20 10 0 SFB 88 69 84 68 / 20 20 10 0 ORL 88 70 84 69 / 20 20 10 0 FPR 86 70 86 70 / 10 20 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1248863 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1236 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1234 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 - Cold front moves through Sunday bringing drier/breezy conditions. - Small Craft Advisory in effect across the coastal waters on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 A cold front moving through North Texas will push into South Texas by sunrise Sunday. Not much change in expectations with this front, expecting mainly a moderate northerly wind and lower dewpoints to spread across the region...temporarily. NBM and other deterministic global models have backed off a bit on how low dpts will get, especially in the coastal bend, but ensembles and high res guidance still holding on to mid 60s dpts reaching the coast Sunday afternoon. Will start to see the return of surface moisture before Sunrise Monday though. Low temperatures for some areas likely to occur earlier in the night before starting to increase before sunrise with the increasing moisture. This return flow could bring some fog to south and eastern portions of the area. We will have to keep an eye on fire weather conditions for Sunday with decreasing RH values, but think winds will be light enough to alleviate much concern. The remainder of the period will feature the aforementioned moisture return with continued above normal temperatures. A couple of weak boundaries to approach the area, but dont look to have much fanfare if they do move through, essentially similar to what we`ll see tomorrow with just briefly lower humidity. An isolated streamer or sea breeze shower will be possible at times, but nothing to really key in on, with only ~20% at any time for the rest of the week. In terms of coastal flooding potential, think concern for tomorrow is fairly low. While we will see a few hours of northeasterly winds that can increase tides along local beaches, not sure the duration is enough to have much of an impact. PETSS guidance indicates below 1.8ft MSL for tomorrow, but some indications of an increase as we head into next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Looking for VFR conditions for most terminals through the TAF cycle, except for the patchy fog this morning between 09Z-13Z, leading to brief MVFR conditions. A frontal passage will lead to near 15 kt N/NE`lies gusting as high near 25 kts throughout the day. Overnight, winds subside and become more S/SE`ly. && .MARINE... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 A cold front will bring fresh to strong north to northeasterly winds to the area on Sunday. A small craft advisory is in effect through Sunday evening. Onshore flow returns by Sunday night into Monday. There is a low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers across the offshore waters on Sunday, followed by dry conditions through mid- week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 A cold front moving through tomorrow will bring a drop in RH to low levels across much of the area - though coastal counties likely to remain above thresholds. Could see a brief overlap of some moderate winds with the low RH in the early afternoon, but looks like only a couple of hours before winds decrease to light levels, so will not issue an elevated fire concern statement at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 91 68 89 71 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 91 57 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 95 68 96 71 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 94 64 95 68 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 91 71 88 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 94 64 96 69 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 93 65 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 86 75 85 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275. && $$ |
| #1248862 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 133 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will shift offshore today ahead of a cold front tonight. Minimal rain chances as the moisture starved front crosses the region. Dry high pressure will return and dominate through much of the week. A dry cold front will move through Tuesday night, mainly affecting winds and temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure centered offshore yet holding on along the coast will move out ahead of an approaching cold front. SW winds will increase ahead of the front through the day with afternoon gusts reaching 25- 30 mph. Any rain chances will be ahead of the front in the late afternoon inland and then the coast in the evening. The front will be offshore by midnight with winds decreasing in strength in some towards the end of the period. Any rainfall will be brief and light as the front clears our area fairly quickly (~6hrs), and no thunder is expected. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Bulk of the period will be dominated by weak surface high and flat flow aloft. Very dry air mass in place through late Tue will keep skies clear. Precipitable water stays under 0.50", running as low as .030" on Mon. Tue night into Wed a stacked low moving across the Great Lakes drags a cold front across the area. The front is moisture starved, precipitable water briefly touches 1" Tue night but with limited forcing, no surface based instability and a lack of dynamics (which will be well north and closer to the low) the chance for rain along and ahead of the front Tue night is about zero. Near normal temperatures Mon run a little below normal Mon night. Bigger concern Mon will be afternoon humidity. Current forecast of RH AoB 30% for much of the area may not be low enough. Forecast soundings show very dry air, single digit RH, just above the top of the mixed layer during peak heating. The guidance always struggles to resolve the dry air in these types of air masses. Warm advection ahead of the front will push highs into the mid 70s to upper 70s while cold advection Tue night is delayed and scattered clouds help keep lows in the mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Dry cold front will be offshore Wed morning with modified high building in from the west. Although broad 5h trough sets up over the East Coast, the high moving in is not particularly cold. So while temperatures drop below normal, especially Thu when the cooler air will be in place, they won`t drop much below normal. Very dry air air mass Wed/Thu, precipitable water AoB 0.50", will keep skies clear with mixing allowing for humidity as low as 25% in some areas both afternoons. High shifts offshore Fri and Sat with return flow developing, setting up weak warm advection. Temperatures climb above normal to end the week while a slight increase in low level moisture will allow for some cloud development. However, the abundance of deep dry air will keep the forecast free of rain. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR. A south breeze will hold overnight with gusts building in quickly after sunrise ahead of a cold front. Gusts will be ~20-25 kts through the daytime, with the front moving through inland to the coast ~2-3Z. NW winds should be fully established across the area by midnight with winds ~5 kts. There could be some LLWS with this frontal passage but it`s low confidence at this time. Also low confidence for a passing shower to hit a terminal with some diminished conditions, so have added PROB30s for this possibility. Extended Outlook...VFR. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... SW flow will increase as a cold front approaches the area, moving over the waters around midnight with winds becoming NW. Increasingly gusty winds and some 6 ft seas ~20 nm out will keep Small Craft Advisory conditions through the period. Monday through Thursday... Waters will be affected by 2 cold front this week. The first moves offshore prior to Mon morning with the enhanced post front winds due to cold advection ongoing. Winds drop off during the morning hours with offshore flow 10kt or less by Mon afternoon. No sign of any northerly surge Mon night as the high to the south is quick to shift offshore. Return flow increases Tue into Tue night ahead of the next cold front, which passes dry in the early morning hours on Wed. Strongest winds will be in the pre- frontal regime with solid 20 kt possible late Tue into Tue night. Some weak cold advection Wed into Thu, but offshore flow struggles to hit 15kt. Elongated ridge axis shifts offshore early Thu with light and variable winds in the afternoon. Seas will be on somewhat of a roller coaster this week. Starting off 3-5 ft Mon morning then falling to 1-2 ft Mon night and first part of Tue. The increasing southerly flow later Tue and Tue night will bring seas back up to 3-4 ft Tue night, but then the development of offshore flow Wed into Thu drops seas back to 1-2 ft. Seas will be a mix of an easterly swell and wind wave varying from south to southwest and even a bit of northerly at times. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 9 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1248859 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 126 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warming trend continues through Sunday ahead of the next system approaching from the northwest. There is a chance for gusty showers Sunday night, followed by mainly dry weather next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 910 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Mainly clear and not quite as chilly tonight. Increasing clouds toward Sunday morning. ~1020mb high pressure is centered offshore this evening. Mostly clear with temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s. The wind is light out of the S to SSE. PWs slowly ramp up late this evening into early Sunday, as llvl winds veer back to the SSW ahead of the approaching front. Slow WAA aloft ahead of the system brings a modest increase in mid to high cloud cover and building return flow. This will in turn bring a milder night tonight, despite continued dry conditions. Expected early morning lows range from mainly in the low to mid 50s to around 60 along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - A cold front approaches Sunday afternoon and crosses the area Sunday night, bringing increasing clouds, gusty SW winds, and chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms. S and SW winds continue to gradually ramp up through the day on Sunday, owing to the compressing pressure gradient ahead of the surface cold front. Winds SW winds gust to 25-30mph inland and up to 35mph near the coast during the afternoon and evening, and we warm up a few more degrees Sunday as well. Forecast highs well into the 70s across the area on Sunday, with some low 80s likely across portions of SE VA and NE NC. 12z guidance remains in good agreement overall regarding the cold frontal passage Sunday night. Rain showers approach from the west Sunday afternoon, with slight chance PoPs pushing into far western portions of the area (US-15 corridor area) by around or just before sunset Sunday late afternoon. For most of the area, rain chances don`t increase until the evening hours, with likely to categorical rain chances (70-90%) spreading toward the I-95 corridor before midnight, and toward the coast around midnight and thereafter. QPF has leveled off a bit, with the fast eastward movement of the convective line a major limiting factor for QPF. That said, the majority of the guidance remains clustered between around 0.25", highest over the northwestern half of the area with lower amounts for the SE half. Forecast soundings continue to show very little instability but with strong shear/dynamics aloft. A few lightning flashes are possible as the well-forced convective line slides across the area. Aside from areas along and just north of the Albemarle Sound just south of US-158, most of the local area is now included in a Day 2 Marginal Risk for strong to locally severe storms Sunday night. 12z/18 CAMs and the new HREF still showing meager SBCAPE in our area ahead of the front. In fact, the 12z HREF still shows probs of >150 J/kg of CAPE < 10% area wide (and near 0 along the coastal plain). Therefore expect showers will likely weaken as they cross the area Sunday evening. However, despite the meager instability and non-diurnal timing, strong winds aloft may be able to mix down to the surface with this convective line, producing a narrow line of some gusty showers as the convective line crosses the area Sunday evening, hence the previously referenced Marginal Risk area from SPC. Rain chances quickly drop off from SW to NE after midnight. Behind the front, winds turn westerly, remaining breezy into Monday morning. Look for early morning low temps Monday morning in the upper 40s along and west of I-95, low to mid 50s coastal areas. Cooler/drier air slowly filters into the area on Monday with clouds clearing out along the coast through midday, as shortwave ridging briefly crests over the east coast. W-NW winds remain breezy through Monday afternoon, with high temps in the mid to upper 60s. Light winds back to the SW Monday night with lows in the low to mid 40s, though a few upper 30s are possible Tue morning in typically cooler rural/sheltered locales well NW of RIC. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 235 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Another cold front expected to cross the region late Tuesday into Wednesday with limited moisture. - Seasonable temperatures and dry weather return for the mid to late week period. A quick moving northern stream shortwave drops out of the Canadian Prairies Monday night and Tuesday, sending another weak/dry cold front toward the area Tue/Tue night. Warmer in brief return flow ahead of this next front, with highs mainly in the low 70s. Precip chances still look pretty low (with probs dropping further with this latest model suite). Low (slight) PoPs remain in place for now Tue night, mainly for a few showers over the Northern Neck into the Eastern Shore Tuesday night into Wednesday, but again, any QPF would be quite low. Slightly slower timing will bring a cool night, with lows in the 40s to low 50s. Mainly dry and cool conditions follow for the latter half of the week with highs generally in the 60s and lows in the 40s (upper 30s again possible early Thu far NW counties). && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 125 AM EDT Sunday... High pressure is noted offshore early this morning with VFR conditions across the region. Winds are mainly S or SSW 5-10 kt. SSW winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt by mid morning, continuing into the evening hours. Any precip at the main terminals will hold off until after 00z tonight. Models continue to show a narrow, low-topped line of convection moving rapidly across the area. PROB30 groups at RIC, SBY, PHF, and ORF have been included late in the period with this forecast. Confidence at ECG is too low to include at this time. Instability will be minimal so little if any thunder is expected. However, included -TSRA in the PROB30 groups to allow for VRB winds gusting ~35 kt with the convective line. Brief MVFR visibility and/or CIG restrictions are possible with the convective line. Drier air and westerly winds will arrive behind the cold front later Sunday night. Dry/VFR conditions return Monday but remaining breezy in the cooler, post-frontal airmass. VFR conditions prevail through mid to late week with a dry cold front crossing the region late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. && .MARINE... As of 830 PM EDT Saturday... Evening update: Poorly-modeled long-period ENE swell has led to elevated seas in the NC coastal waters, as well as in the VA waters out near 20 nm. Observations have been hovering as high as 6-7 ft near the Duck NC buoy. Previously issued Small Craft Advisories for tomorrow (Sunday) were extended back in time to include the tonight/Sunday morning period. Otherwise, no other major changes to the forecast this evening. Previous Discussion as of 325 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Sub-advisory conditions persist through Sunday morning as high pressure remains overhead. - Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all local waters Sunday into Monday with the frontal passage. - Occasional 34 kt gusts both ahead of and behind the cold front Sunday night into Monday are possible. Additionally, gusty showers accompanying the frontal passage will likely necessitate SMWs. Sub-advisory marine conditions continue this afternoon into early Sunday morning as high pressure is centered just southeast of the local area. Winds are currently S 5-10 kt in both the coastal waters and the Ches. Bay. Seas are 3-4 ft with an occasional 5 ft wave in the southern most zone as seas sharply increase off the NC waters. Otherwise, waves are ~1 ft. These sub-advisory winds will continue through early Sunday morning with winds increase out of the SSW to around 15 kt after sunrise tomorrow. Marine conditions will deteriorate throughout the day Sunday into Monday as a cold front moves through the area and local waters. This cold front, tied with a deepening low pressure system moving just north of the area, will cause winds to increase both ahead of and behind it. The bay and coastal waters north of Parramore Island will see SCA conditions of 15-20 kt winds with gusts to 25 kt and seas of 5 ft (waves 3-4 ft) first with SCA in effect 10 AM Sunday. The remaining coastal water zones will then see the elevated winds and seas a few hours later. The rivers and Currituck Sound will lastly reach 15-20 kt with 25 kt gusts Sunday afternoon. Waves and seas will peak late Sunday/early Monday with seas of 5-7 ft and waves of 3-5 ft. Winds will peak around 06z/2 AM at 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Will note there is a chance of seeing an occasional gust to 34 kt before the front moves through (10 PM-1 AM). Local wind probs have decreased to 20-40% chc of 34+ gusts, so have kept this out of the forecast. Albeit, gusty showers with the front will likely contain gusts >34 kt, which will be covered by SMWs as needed. Behind the front early Monday morning, winds will shift to the W at 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, then decreasing throughout the day. Sub-SCA winds and waves are expected by late Monday evening. The next cold front is progged to cross the local waters late Tuesday into Wednesday with another round of SCAs possible. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 830 PM EDT Saturday... Water levels will continue to increase in the upper bay over the next 24-36 hrs as SSW winds gradually increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Additionally, currents have continued to favor flooding over ebbing at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued for the upcoming early Sunday morning high tide cycle on the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore and along the tidal Potomac as water levels are expected to be a tenth to two tenths of a foot higher than the previous cycle. Minor or near- minor flooding is expected at the Bishop`s Head, Crisfield, Cambridge, and Lewisetta gauges. Widespread minor flooding to locally moderate flooding is then likely during the overnight Sunday into Monday high tide on the MD Eastern Shore bay side as winds become SW then W behind the front. Note that there will be a quick increase in tidal anomalies on the eastern shore when the wind becomes west immediately following the FROPA, and how close this occurs to high tide will likely dictate whether Cambridge/Crisfield see moderate flooding (or just minor) Sunday night. The Coastal Flood Advisory has been extended to include this period, but there is some potential for Warnings should confidence increase in moderate flooding. Water levels gradually fall early next week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for VAZ075-077. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ654-656-658. && $$ |
| #1248858 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 127 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push offshore tonight, followed by high pressure through Tuesday. Another cold front will then arrive Tuesday night, with high pressure to follow. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Through Daybreak: Early morning surface observations show the boundary layer has decoupled in a number of the areas with either calm or light/variable winds being reported. Temperatures at 19/05z were running several degrees cooler than 19/01z NBM output as a result. Winds should begin to pick up prior to daybreak as the area begins to feel the far eastern periphery of the pre-frontal 1000-850 hPa low-level jet. In addition, the increasing southerly flow could advect some marine-based stratocumulus inland along parts of the lower South Carolina coast over the next few hours. These factors should help level out temperatures a bit as daybreak approaches, but observed lows may very well end up quite a bit cooler in spots. National "Break the Glass" criteria is not being met locally for temperatures, so no local adjustments to the NBM were made to account for these colder areas. Through Tonight: A large amplitude shortwave will pivot across the eastern U.S. through tonight helping to drive a cold front east across the Southeast States. The front is on target to push offshore tonight, keeping the local area in the warm sector through this evening. Moisture return head of the front is the most intense across parts of the Deep South where widespread convection is ongoing early this morning. Convection is forecast to push east ahead of the front through the day while encountering increasingly drier air over the Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia. Model cross-sections also show weakening upper forcing/UVVs with the tail end of the approaching shortwave progged to pass by well to the north. These factors should result in a gradual weakening of convection as it moves out of western/central portions of South Carolina/Georgia and into the Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia. There remains some uncertainty on how quickly this weakening will take with some CAM members suggesting a solid amount of (mostly light) convection will clear the coast while others show little/no activity reaching the beaches. In fact, convection may come in two weakening waves--one well ahead of the front and another with the front itself. Pops this afternoon and evening were aligned with the 19/01z NBM as the lack of severe weather or other convective hazards prohibit any "Break the Glass" deviation from that guidance. Pops range from 50% across far interior Southeast Georgia as well as Allendale and Hampton Counties in the Lowcountry with 20-30% at the coast. Highs this afternoon will reach into the lower 80s away from the coast with mid-upper 70s at the beaches. Modest post frontal cold air advection will help push overnight lows into the upper 40s/lower 50s inland with upper 50s/near 60 at the beaches. It will become locally breezy by late morning and continue into the evening hours as rising mixing heights begin to tap in a belt of higher winds aloft associated with the pre-frontal low-level jet. Gusts could reach as high as 25-30 mph at times, but should remain well below Wind Advisory criteria (gusts 40-55 mph). Lake Winds: Conditions look borderline for a Lake Wind Advisory today and tonight. Winds over land are expected to become increasingly gusty as the day progresses and winds aloft associated with the pre-frontal low-level jet intensify. However, water temperatures on Lake Moultrie are running around 70 degrees which limit mixing quite a bit over the open lake waters, especially the degree of gustiness. It will likely become somewhat breezy along the lakeshore, especially the southern lakeshore, but gusts should remain somewhat muted. Expected winds to peak 15-20 kt this afternoon. There will be a chance frequent gusts could reach as high as 25 kt this evening just ahead and immediately behind the passage of the cold front, but the duration of >25 kt gusts is somewhat uncertain. HREF probabilities for wind gusts at or above 25 kt is only averaging 40-50% ahead/just behind the front while the NBM is considerably lower at <10%. This further supports the marginality of this lake wind event. Winds were held below Lake Wind Advisory at 15-20 kt for now, but the need for a Lake Wind Advisory will be reassessed later today as additional guidance is received and wind trends are more readily identified. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Very quiet weather will prevail Monday through Wednesday as high pressure remains the dominant feature. Temperatures will be quite seasonable. Tuesday looks like the warmest of the three days due to warm advection ahead of a reinforcing dry cold front. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will prevail late week into the weekend. Dry conditions will continue with temps a few degrees below normal. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 19/06z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through the period. Gusty winds will develop by mid-morning and continue through late evening as a cold front approaches. Gusts as high as 20-25 kt are possible. A weakening area of showers, possibly in two waves, could approach the terminals this evening. It is uncertain how far east these two clusters will make it before dissipating. VCSH was highlighted at all three terminals from 23z on for now. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: Southerly winds will slowly increase today and tonight as a cold front pushes offshore. Winds are expected to reach 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt likely over the South Carolina nearshore and Georgia offshore legs where a Small Craft Advisory has been posted through 6 AM Monday. Seeing frequent gusts to 25 kt is a much more borderline across Charleston Harbor and the Georgia nearshore waters, so flags were not posted for these areas just yet. That decision is deferred to the afternoon forecast cycle once additional data are received. SEas will build to 3-4 ft, except 4-5 ft over the Georgia offshore waters and the South Carolina nearshore waters from South Santee-Edisto Beach. Monday through Friday: High pressure will maintain quiet conditions with no headlines expected. Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk is in place for all beaches today due to increasing winds and building seas. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Monday for AMZ350-352-374. && $$ |
| #1248857 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1220 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1215 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 * Life-threatening rip currents return Sunday into Monday and again next weekend. * Beaches may narrow or become impassable during high tide cycles next week. * Above normal temperatures continue with record or near record warmth across the Rio Grande Valley Sunday into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 A surface low drags a frontal boundary southward into Deep South Texas by Sunday afternoon setting up a comfortable but breezy Sunday with a northeasterly wind shift and little else. Temperatures will not drop with this front and POPs remain very low, less than 10 percent. The subtropical ridge then returns through next week, with another weak frontal boundary and surface high gradually working southeastward mid to late week, maintaining generally dry conditions through the period for most locations with a low, less than 15 percent, rain chance along the sea breeze Wednesday through Friday. Low pressure in the Southern Plains will strengthen the pressure gradient next Friday and Saturday, bringing back a warm breeze along the lower Texas coast. Another frontal boundary with weak low pressure at the surface arrives on Saturday with a low (20 percent) chance of rain. Well above normal temperatures continue through the period, approaching record highs across the RGV Sunday through Tuesday. There is a moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk Sunday and Tuesday along the Rio Grande. A moderate rip current risk returns Sunday through Monday and again Friday into Saturday. Long period swell may also help narrow beaches along high tide cycles as astronomical tides begin to increase this week. Current MHHW observations are 1 foot above guidance, which begins to run near Coastal Flood Statement criteria by high tide Sunday afternoon. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Generally VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF cycle at all TAF sites. However, some possible early morning fog is possible for HRL as the winds will be light and there will be some moisture advection over the region. Winds are expected to generally be light for the forecast period as well and mostly out of the southeast to the east. Some low-level clouds are expected, but shouldn`t affect the flight categories. && .MARINE... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 A northeasterly push behind the frontal boundary works south across coastal waters late Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon. SCEC conditions are becoming more likely, with a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions possible across the bay and mainly nearshore waters late Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon. Have low confidence in SCA winds at this time. There is a brief low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms along the front, mainly offshore Sunday morning. Southeasterly flow returns early next week with a long period easterly swell as high pressure persists across the northern Gulf. A brief and weak northeasterly wind shift arrives Wednesday, returning to southeasterly Thursday through Saturday. The pressure gradient strengthens next weekend, increasing winds and building seas. Another low (15 to 20 percent) chance of rain arrives mainly offshore Wednesday through Friday, with a low to medium (20 to 30 percent) chance on Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Relative humidity values drop Sunday afternoon to near or below 30 percent across Jim Hogg and Starr counties and below 20-25 percent across Zapata County. At this time, 20 foot winds remain near or below 10 mph, with the strongest wind gusts generally prior to the lowest relative humidity values or after humidity returns. Given the persistent dry conditions and abnormally dry to moderate drought ongoing across Zapata County, fire concerns are low but not zero given this setup, and likely fall shy of a Fire Danger Statement. Still, future monitoring may be necessary if winds arrive stronger than expected or moisture drops further and faster. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Record high temperatures may be approached Sunday through Tuesday across the Rio Grande Valley, especially Sunday and Tuesday in Brownsville and Tuesday in McAllen. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 93 75 91 75 / 10 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 95 70 94 69 / 10 0 0 0 MCALLEN 98 74 97 74 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 98 70 97 70 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 79 86 79 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 74 89 73 / 10 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248856 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1222 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 ...New FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Very dry and breezy conditions today will enhance the fire risk. Red Flag Warnings may be needed. - A brief push of cooler air will give a fall-like feel to the air Sunday night. Enjoy it while it lasts. - Generally speaking, the forecast through the next week is mostly dry and skews warmer than normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Cold front is pushing through our region this morning. In the front`s wake, expect gusty north to northeast winds and much drier air. Most areas north of I-10 are expected to have dew points drop into the 40s by the afternoon, with Brazos Valley counties possibly dropping into the 30s. Temperatures across southeast Texas are expected to average in the low/mid 80s this afternoon, but our northern Piney Woods areas may stay in the 70s whle our southwest counties near Matagorda could still push 90. Some of the hi-res guidance that was most aggressive on "CAA" has backed off somewhat since yesterday. But the HREF probability of gusts over 30 MPH is still quite high, near 100 percent in the Brazos Valley, 40-60 percent in the Houston area, and 60-80 percent over the bays and the Gulf. Best chance of gusts over 30 MPH will be during the mid morning to early afternoon hours. Our western counties, particularly the Brazos Valley counties, are forecast to be close to Red Flag Warning criteria. Most areas are expected to drop into the 50s tonight. A taste of Fall during what should be actual Fall. Southeast flow resumes on Monday, gradually increasing moisture levels through Tuesday as well as cranking temperatures back towards the 90 degree mark. A frontal boundary is expected to push through SE Texas on Tuesday, bringing a chance of isolated to scattered showers (most expected to remain dry). Less hot and drier air moves back in by Wednesday in the front`s wake. But onshore flow returns again by Thursday, bringing back the mugginess and keeping temperatures warmer than normal. We`ll have fall....one day... Self && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 557 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 We have entered a lull in the shower and thunderstorms activity for today, but we are expecting additional scattered showers and storms to redevelop in the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region late this evening/tonight as a cold front moves in from the northwest. We are not anticipating a solid line of thunderstorms to accompany this front, but more of a broken line of showers and thunderstorms that will be decreasing in strength as it slides through the area. Have VCSH and TEMPOs of TS for CLL and UTS generally between 02-04z, then a VCSH with PROB30 of TS for CXO between 03-05z, and just a PROB30 of SHRA for IAH between 04-07z. The line of storms should dissipate before reaching I-10, so do not mention any precipitation for the southern terminals. There will be a period of light winds and lingering moisture near dawn Sunday morning, so some patchy fog or low CIGs may be possible - but otherwise expect VFR conditions to prevail. Breezy southerly winds will persist through this evening with speeds around 8-12kt and occasionally higher gusts. Again a period of light variable to northerly winds are expected late tonight into early Sunday morning, but then gusty northerly winds are expected to develop by the mid-morning hours. Wind speeds around 10-15kt with gusts to 25kt (and higher at the coast) will be possible through the mid afternoon before the winds begin to lower by Sunday evening. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 A frontal boundary pushes offshore this morning, bringing gusty north to northeast winds in its wake today. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 7AM to 7PM on Sunday due to the potential for 15-25 knot winds, choppy bay waters, and Gulf seas approaching 6 feet in some areas. Winds could occasionally gust over 30 knots. Winds gradually decrease this afternoon, then veer southeast by Monday. We expected winds to mostly be from the southeast this upcoming week. However, a period of northeasterly flow is possible behind a frontal boundary on Wednesday. Onshore flow could become moderate to strong at times later in the week as the low-level gradient steepens. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Breezy and much drier conditions move into the region behind a frontal boundary today. Widespread minimum afternoon RH values between 20 and 30 percent expected today, with some areas in the Brazos Valley dropping below 20. Near the coast, those values are expected to remain near 40 percent. Meanwhile, north to northeast winds will be gusty, possibly gusting as high as 30 MPH at times, with widespread gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range. Conditions are expected to be very near Red Flag Warning criteria in our western and Brazos Valley counties. A warning may be warranted. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 52 91 66 88 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 56 88 69 91 / 0 0 0 20 Galveston (GLS) 71 83 76 86 / 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ |
| #1248855 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1213 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Very dry and breezy conditions today will enhance the fire risk. Red Flag Warnings may be needed. - A brief push of cooler air will give a fall-like feel to the air Sunday night. Enjoy it while it lasts. - Generally speaking, the forecast through the next week is mostly dry and skews warmer than normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Cold front is pushing through our region this morning. In the front`s wake, expect gusty north to northeast winds and much drier air. Most areas north of I-10 are expected to have dew points drop into the 40s by the afternoon, with Brazos Valley counties possibly dropping into the 30s. Temperatures across southeast Texas are expected to average in the low/mid 80s this afternoon, but our northern Piney Woods areas may stay in the 70s whle our southwest counties near Matagorda could still push 90. Some of the hi-res guidance that was most aggressive on "CAA" has backed off somewhat since yesterday. But the HREF probability of gusts over 30 MPH is still quite high, near 100 percent in the Brazos Valley, 40-60 percent in the Houston area, and 60-80 percent over the bays and the Gulf. Best chance of gusts over 30 MPH will be during the mid morning to early afternoon hours. Our western counties, particularly the Brazos Valley counties, are forecast to be close to Red Flag Warning criteria. Most areas are expected to drop into the 50s tonight. A taste of Fall during what should be actual Fall. Southeast flow resumes on Monday, gradually increasing moisture levels through Tuesday as well as cranking temperatures back towards the 90 degree mark. A frontal boundary is expected to push through SE Texas on Tuesday, bringing a chance of isolated to scattered showers (most expected to remain dry). Less hot and drier air moves back in by Wednesday in the front`s wake. But onshore flow returns again by Thursday, bringing back the mugginess and keeping temperatures warmer than normal. We`ll have fall....one day... Self && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 557 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 We have entered a lull in the shower and thunderstorms activity for today, but we are expecting additional scattered showers and storms to redevelop in the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region late this evening/tonight as a cold front moves in from the northwest. We are not anticipating a solid line of thunderstorms to accompany this front, but more of a broken line of showers and thunderstorms that will be decreasing in strength as it slides through the area. Have VCSH and TEMPOs of TS for CLL and UTS generally between 02-04z, then a VCSH with PROB30 of TS for CXO between 03-05z, and just a PROB30 of SHRA for IAH between 04-07z. The line of storms should dissipate before reaching I-10, so do not mention any precipitation for the southern terminals. There will be a period of light winds and lingering moisture near dawn Sunday morning, so some patchy fog or low CIGs may be possible - but otherwise expect VFR conditions to prevail. Breezy southerly winds will persist through this evening with speeds around 8-12kt and occasionally higher gusts. Again a period of light variable to northerly winds are expected late tonight into early Sunday morning, but then gusty northerly winds are expected to develop by the mid-morning hours. Wind speeds around 10-15kt with gusts to 25kt (and higher at the coast) will be possible through the mid afternoon before the winds begin to lower by Sunday evening. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 A frontal boundary pushes offshore this morning, bringing gusty north to northeast winds in its wake today. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 7AM to 7PM on Sunday due to the potential for 15-25 knot winds, choppy bay waters, and Gulf seas approaching 6 feet in some areas. Winds could occasionally gust over 30 knots. Winds gradually decrease this afternoon, then veer southeast by Monday. We expected winds to mostly be from the southeast this upcoming week. However, a period of northeasterly flow is possible behind a frontal boundary on Wednesday. Onshore flow could become moderate to strong at times later in the week as the low-level gradient steepens. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 154 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 A smattering of showers are occurring across Southeast Texas today in advance of a cold front that will move into the region tonight. Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to occur along and ahead of that front. A few storms could become strong to severe, particularly across the Piney Woods and potentially as far west as the Brazos Valley. Average rainfall across the area in a broad sense will be relatively light, though isolated higher totals may be found where stronger showers/storms occur. After the front passes, expect gusty north winds and much drier conditions on Sunday. Minimum RH`s on Sunday should be in the 20-30 range inland, with some dry spots west of the Houston metro potentially briefly dipping a little below 20 percent. Even closer to the coast, RH looks to fall to around 35 percent. Breezy winds are also expected tomorrow, with sustained winds of 10-15 mph and gusts to around 20 mph. At the least, elevated fire weather conditions with isolated spots of near critical fire weather conditions are anticipated tomorrow, and a red flag warning will at least need to be considered. One of the key factors will be how much rainfall we see through tonight. At this time, rainfall over the broad area is expected to be fairly light with only isolated spots of higher rainfall. Unless more widespread moderate to heavy rain falls, this is unlikely to seriously mitigate the situation. The key factor in determining whether any red flag warnings may be needed will be timing - if the strongest winds match up with the hottest, driest part of the day, we will be more likely to cross the red flag threshold. For now, it appears that winds may peak a little too early in the day before RH really dives to its lowest levels. HREF probability of having winds over 20 mph coincide with RH below 25 percent is 10-20 percent in the rural, grassy area well to the west of the Houston metro. So, for now, we will hold off on a watch/warning issuance. However, a red flag warning may still be needed if the stronger winds peak later or diminish more slowly than currently forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 91 63 82 52 / 30 40 0 0 Houston (IAH) 90 69 84 54 / 30 20 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 85 74 84 70 / 90 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ330-335- 350-355-370-375. && $$ |
| #1248854 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 103 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1258 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 - Scattered showers and a few isolated storms are possible today and once again on Monday afternoon. - Gusty easterly winds will result in dangerous rip currents at all east coast beaches today. - The combination of onshore winds and the approaching new moon in the lunar cycle will result in continued minor flooding along the east coast of South Florida within 1.5 to 2 hours of high tide. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1258 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 05z Mesoanalysis as well as recent surface observations from across South Florida indicate that mid-level ridging and a dry and comfortable airmass still remain in place across the region early this morning. It certainly feels fantastic out there with widespread dewpoints in the low to mid 60s courtesy of a residual plume of dry air at the surface and light easterly flow. Similar to last night, the 00z MFL upper air sounding still depicts an atmospheric profile that is characteristic of mid-level ridging directly overhead with a stout subsidence inversion at 850mb. The 00z MFL upper air sounding recorded a precipitable water value of 1.03 inches, which remains below the 10% percentile for this time of year. But a pattern change is forecast over the next several hours and the atmospheric ingredients are already coming into view in real time. Winds are already beginning to veer east-southeasterly across the region and will veer more southeasterly as the morning goes on. Why is this subtle wind shift important? It signals the start of the departure (and lessening influence) of an expansive area of surface high pressure over the western Atlantic waters and it kicks off the return of deeper moisture to the region. Shower activity across the region is expected to gradually pick up in coverage through the remainder of today. While a subsidence inversion and the usual hallmarks of mid-level ridging are still being picked up on recent local observations, mid- level winds above South Florida has become more zonal in nature over the last several hours indicating the continued weakening of what was once strong ridging aloft. A long-wave trough currently across the central United States will continue to amplify as it reaches the Great Lakes region later this morning. The development of a jet- streak ahead of the main trough axis will enhance an area of low pressure over the Great Lakes today. A sprawling frontal boundary connected to the aforementioned distant surface low pressure will sweep eastwards across the southeastern United States (and north and central Florida) during the day today. The surface wind field across South Florida will respond to this feature accordingly, remaining out of a southeasterly to southerly direction today. This will result in warm air advection (W.A.A.) which will allow for a plume of deeper atmospheric moisture to arrive into the region, especially during this afternoon. While the best synoptic dynamics are still forecast to remain well to the north of the region, the GFS/European as well as some mesoscale models continue to show a mid-level shortwave propagating along at the base of the trough across Central Florida during the second half of today into the mid morning hours of Monday. The combination of mid-level vorticity, diurnal heating, and a plume of deeper precipitable water values (1.8 to 2.0 inches) lifting northwards into the region will support the development of showers as well as a few isolated thunderstorms across most of the region today. Forecast model soundings from mesoscale models show modest instability (Surface based CAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) and steep 0-3km low level lapse rates. While moisture return will saturate the vertical column up to 700mb, there will still be plenty of mid-level dry air aloft. The mixing of this dry air down to the surface during the day could serve as a limiting factor for coverage. The dry air aloft may also support the potential of some gusty winds with shower and storm activity this afternoon. For now have maintained today`s chances of precipitation to be in the 20-50% range. As winds remain light out of a southeasterly to southerly direction, temperatures and humidity will be higher today during the afternoon hours. Forecasted highs will range from the middle to upper 80s along both coasts to temperatures in the low 90s across inland southwestern Florida. As the mid-level trough lifts north across the northeastern United States tonight into Monday, the distant surface low attached to the boundary will lose synoptic forcing. This will result in the previously mentioned frontal boundary stalling out just to the north of South Florida. The departing mid-level shortwave may provide a second boost in instability during this time frame as 500mb temperatures remain in the -8C to -9C range, perhaps keeping shower and thunderstorm activity going on during the early morning hours of Monday just offshore of the east coast of South Florida. With our region remaining to the south of the boundary in the warm sector during the day on Monday, a residual plume of moisture will remain across the region which may once again allow for a few afternoon showers and isolated storms. Ample sunshine and light winds are forecast for most of the day, with temperatures remaining slightly above average across the region with forecasted highs in the upper 80s to low 90s area-wide. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1258 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 The subtropical jet and upstream waves will remain active across the eastern United States through mid-week as additional lobes of mid- level vorticity amplify and advect eastward across the Great Lakes. Associated surface lows will also advect from west to east across the Great Lakes dragging sprawling frontal boundaries across most of the eastern half of the country. With the stalled frontal boundary across Central Florida becoming frontolytic in nature by Tuesday, enough residual low level moisture will remain to support the development of a few afternoon showers for most of the region. Temperatures will remain slightly above average for this time of year during this time frame with forecasted afternoon high temperatures each day during the middle to late park of the week remaining in the upper 80s to low 90s each afternoon. A frontal boundary during the second half of the week (late Wednesday into Thursday) will usher in the return of drier conditions as drier air works in the region. The continued parade of mid-level troughs across the eastern United States during this time frame will result in mid-level winds over South Florida remaining out of a northerly to northwesterly direction, keeping conditions quiet and dry. Breezy northeasterly winds late this week may once again set up a temperature gradient during the afternoon hours across the region, with the ocean breeze keeping the east coast cooler than out west (SW Florida). && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1258 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Light southeasterly winds will prevail at all terminals today with the potential of scattered SHRA (and isolated TSRA) across the region this afternoon and evening. Sub MVFR cigs/vis will be possible if SHRA/TSRA activity passes near or over terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 1258 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Winds will veer southeasterly and remain light to moderate today across the local waters as a frontal boundary approaches the region. The arrival of more northeasterly swell later today may increase wave heights slightly across the northern Atlantic waters into the 4- 6 feet range. Elsewhere, wave heights will remain in the 3-5 feet range across the rest of the Atlantic waters with seas in the 2-3 range across our local Gulf waters. Showers and isolated storms are forecast to develop across the waters today into tonight, especially over the Gulfstream waters. If thunderstorm activity does indeed develop over the waters, erratic wind shifts and locally gusty winds could occur near and around any storms. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1258 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 A high risk of rip currents will continue across all east coast beaches of South Florida today. While the risk of rip currents will begin to subside on Monday as onshore flow lessens, the risk of high rip currents will persist at Palm Beach County beaches. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1258 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 The combination of higher than normal tidal levels due to the lunar cycle and residual northeasterly swell will result in the continued potential of minor coastal flooding within 1.5 to 2 hours of high tide along the east coast over the next several days. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for coastal Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties through at least Monday evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 86 75 87 76 / 40 20 30 20 West Kendall 86 74 87 74 / 50 20 30 20 Opa-Locka 87 75 87 75 / 40 20 30 20 Homestead 86 74 86 75 / 50 20 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 86 75 86 75 / 30 20 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 86 75 87 76 / 30 20 20 20 Pembroke Pines 89 75 89 76 / 40 20 30 20 West Palm Beach 87 74 87 75 / 20 20 20 10 Boca Raton 87 74 87 75 / 30 20 20 10 Naples 89 74 89 73 / 20 10 10 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248853 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:09 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1251 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A system approaches the region on Sunday, bringing breezy southerly winds with above-normal temperatures. The frontal system arrives early Monday morning. A strong cold front brings a round of gusty downpours Monday morning to mid-afternoon with temperatures running around seasonable or slightly above normal. Drier weather returns for Tuesday, but a stronger cold front for Wednesday ushers in a cooler, cloudier and more unsettled weather pattern for late in the workweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... The axis of the mid-level ridge pushes eastward across the region tonight. Mid-level moisture rounding the ridge will support areas of mid to high level clouds across the region. This will result in lows a couple of degrees warmer than Friday night in the upper 30s to 40s. Dry conditions prevail with high pressure still in place. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Key Messages: * Warmer Sunday with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. * Showers/rain arrive overnight Sunday into Monday with an approaching system. Details... Sunday: Our next system approaches from the west shifting the mid-level ridge offshore Sunday. This will shift winds to the south with weak warm advection into the region. Increased flow aloft and some boundary layer mixing will bring down more enhanced winds to the surface with some gusts up to 20 mph. Temperatures will be warmer given the warm advection with highs rising into the upper 60s to low 70s for most areas. Slightly above normal for this time of year. Cooler for the Cape/Islands in the mid 60s. Sunday Night: Moisture and clouds increase ahead of an approaching mid-level shortwave trough Sunday night. Deterministic/ensemble models are in agreement on the progression of the shortwave with increasing agreement on timing details which were previously muddier. The approaching system should put southern New England in a broad area of lift and with a plume of above normal moisture advecting into the region. This will support increasing rain/showers arriving from west to east between 2 AM and sunrise. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages: * Gusty showers Mon morning to mid-aftn with a strong cold frontal passage, brief downpours possible. Temps in the mid 60s are slightly above normal. * Drier Tue but a mix of clouds and sun with seasonable temps in the low to mid 60s. * Another strong cold front moves in for Wed, heralding a cooler and more unsettled weather pattern change in store for late in the workweek. Temps by late week trend cooler on the highs with seasonable lows. Details: Pretty active, changeable workweek weather-wise, with a couple of pretty strong cold frontal passages both on Mon and again on Wed. A deep trough then becomes established late in the week, ushering in a cooler, cloudier and more unsettled weather pattern to close out the workweek. Strong sfc cold front with parent 500 mb shortwave trough in western New England early Mon AM works its through Southern New England through the day on Mon. Cloudy and rather breezy southerly winds precede arrival of frontal rains which move through between the morning to mid-afternoon hours. Still have to get into the range of the majority of the mesoscale models but period of steady rain with perhaps some downpours accompanying what seems likely to take the form of a "fine line" given pretty strong sfc convergence combined with dynamic ascent from the 500 mb trough. Could be a rumble or two of thunder with strongest shower activity but unfavorable time of day and shallow progged instability should limit this. Flow fields are pretty strong, with winds around 925 mb around 50-55 kt, but strongest jetcore is locked in a shallow inversion. Pattern looks similar to what we tend to find in late-Fall and the early-Spring with a strongly-forced line of downpours with brief gusty winds but limited severe weather potential. Front moves offshore mid-aftn with cool advection occurring on blustery WSW winds, although may still lean cloudier than not as trough aloft closes off into an upper low for Mon evening. Rain amts are around an inch, although still some uncertainty with this as the bulk of the rain may come within that progged fine line of heavier downpours. We`ll have to get into the mesoscale model guidance range but either way, front should be progressive enough that this amount of rain not likely to yield any adverse impacts other than potentially poor commuting with reduced visbys, especially interior Southern New England. Highs mainly low to mid 60s under overcast/rains, and despite cold advection Mon night, continued SW breezes support lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. Brief dry weather returns on Tue, stuck between storm systems, but with a mix of clouds and sun. Highs in the lower to mid 60s which is around seasonable. Another strong cold front then arrives on Wed, bringing another period of solid rain chances; while the timing is still subject to adjustments, current indications are for a similar timing of rains as those of Monday (morning to early afternoon). Highs on Wed in the mid 60s. Passage of this second cold front then ushers in a cooler and more unsettled weather pattern change for late in the week, as deep cyclonic flow aloft governs the Northeast states. Expect a period of cooler, cloudier weather with perhaps a stray shower or two but not widespread nor resulting in any washouts. 850 mb temps drop to near zero Celsius which could bring highs in the 50s for Thu and Fri, a little cooler than normal for late October. Nighttime lows may not drop as far given cloud cover, with lows in the mid 40s which are slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update: Today... High Confidence VFR. Increasing southerly winds gusting up to 15-20 knots. Tonight...High Confidence. Increasing mid-level clouds. IFR-MVFR ceiling spread from west to east 06z-09z. Rain may enter western MA and CT as early as 09-11z Monday...High Confidence Strong frontal system will bring a quick albeit heavy line of showers and possibly a rumble of thunder Monday morning. The line should enter western MA between 10-12z, and progress east moving offshore by 18z. CIGS will quickly drop to IFR/LIFR with strong SSE winds gusting up to 40 knots. Behind the line, CIGS gradually rise to VFR for the afternoon. KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. VFR. Increasing southerly winds gusting up to 20 knots in the afternoon KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. VFR. Increasing southerly winds gusting up to 20 knots in the afternoon Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Sunday...High confidence. High pressure tonight continuing the downward trend in seas overnight, less than 5 ft in most spots by 12z. Winds less than 25 kts. Winds gradually flip south on Sunday and begin increasing to 15-20 knots on Sunday. Seas remain around 3-5 feet. Winds increase further Sunday night expanding from the southern waters and northward. Will likely need small crafts after 00z with winds increasing 25-30 kts overnight into Monday. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Rain showers. Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain showers likely. Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ250- 254-255. && $$ |
| #1248852 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:09 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1152 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1145 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 - Showers and storms early today will quickly end allowing for offshore flow to develop with Cautionary headlines over most marine zones. - Another frontal boundary will be due into the region on Wednesday. This will likely be a dry frontal passage, however, the coolest overnight lows so far this season will be possible with some locations dropping into the 40s. Additional cautionary headlines possible for the offshore waters. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Early this morning we are watching a band of rather low- topped/weak convection over the southern most parishes. CAMs, or more specifically the HRRR have initialized and have been verifying quite well this evening, so using this as a starting point seems to be a good call at least as it currently stands. The upper level trough axis currently over north central LA will continue to slide eastward through the early morning hours. A line or broken line of convection has developed where the best forcing resides along with 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE plume in those respective areas. Locally, the 00z LIX RAOB shows some instability at around 1200 J/KG SBCAPE or so. However, above H7 the column is noticeably dry. With out the added forcing as well as the slightly limited instability, vertical extent of the ongoing convection is extremely limited. This is forecast to continue through much of the early morning. However, as the trough moves east, the ongoing band of showers will move over the Gulf and eventually perk up a bit (according to CAMs and mesoscale models) downstream just beyond our CWFA. This could happen a bit soon depending on timing. Spatially it is close with the band becoming a bit more formidable over Mobile Bay...so Harrison and Jackson Counties will need to be watched for this convective uptick. That said, only limited severe risk as shear remains lackluster and again even with slightly better forcing there is still quite a bit a upper level dry air to penetrate. As the front moves through the region later this morning or early afternoon, a stronger offshore flow is expected to develop across the CWFA allowing for a CAA regime to take shape. This will help drop overnight lows tonight into the upper 40s along and north of the I10/12 corridor with the southshore dropping off into the lower and middle 60s thanks to the warmer lake waters. Slight moderation occurs Monday and into Monday night as surface high pressure spread eastward quickly across the southeast US and off into the southwest Atlantic. This will allow low level flow to transition back to a warmer onshore flow late Monday with temperatures about 5 degrees or so warmer Tuesday morning when compared to Monday morning. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 The long term period starts with zonal to somewhat dry WNW flow across the region aloft. Looking upstream, another frontal boundary will be moving southeastward toward our region and through the area by early Wednesday morning. QPF signal is pretty weak so POPs will only reside across our northwestern CWFA and even then the odds are lower-end. Think much of this frontal passage will be a dry one with most of the region escaping the frontal passage rain free. Behind the front a CAA regime sets up with stronger northerly flow developing. Temperatures overnight should drop slightly below average with the northern tier perhaps dropping down into the upper 40s. The southshore will be a bit warmer, however, even along and south of I10 will drop into the 50s along the MS Gulf Coast and lower 60s for New Orleans. Surface high pressure is forecast to move east through the lower MS River Valley. The coldest morning will be Thursday with maximized radiational cooling taking shape as the surface high moves over the area. The feature quickly moves eastward and by Friday the high will move off the Carolina coastline allowing for surface flow to become more onshore once again. This will help start a bit of a warming trend going into late week and into the weekend where afternoon highs warm from the upper 70s back into the lower 80s...with overnight lows generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s away from the warmer water bodies. We`ll also be watching another cold front next weekend that looks move into the region. This will be the third front in this forecast cycle, so we will hold off with specifics and focus on the more impactful front in the short term and early on in the long term period. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 A cold front will near the area this morning. Convection at least scattered in nature will be possible. Used PROBs for thunder and removed prevailing SHRA given the more scattered nature and lower odds of rainfall. Expected IFR at least briefly with the heaviest activity, keeping in mind most of the reductions appear to be more scattered in nature. Winds will shift as the front moves through to a more northerly direction and could become gusty on Sunday. Clouds will disperse leaving VFR conditions for the region through the remainder of the cycle post frontal. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Moderate winds and seas are expected through the remainder of the weekend and into the start of the new workweek. Cautionary headlines will likely be needed, especially for the MS Coastal waters today through early Monday as a cold front moves through the region from northwest to southeast. The front clears and conditions improve by late Monday and especially into Tuesday. Another frontal boundary is due into the region by midweek or so, which will again cause a moderate offshore flow to develop with additional cautionary headlines likely. Light to moderate winds will continue and by the end of the forecast period a more onshore flow will develop as a surface high moves eastward off the Carolina coast. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 84 66 78 48 / 60 90 10 0 BTR 87 69 81 49 / 70 90 0 0 ASD 84 68 83 49 / 30 80 20 0 MSY 87 72 86 60 / 40 80 10 0 GPT 84 70 84 54 / 10 90 30 0 PQL 85 69 85 49 / 10 80 40 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248851 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:03 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1247 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - High Rip Current Risk at the Northeast FL Beaches - Isolated TStorms Possible on Sunday Afternoon & Evening - Minor Tidal Flooding this Weekend for the St. Johns Basin. Main Impact Area: Downtown Jacksonville Southward && .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 1207 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Warm and breezy conditions today as weakening cold frontal boundary pushes across the region from NW to SE with scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms possible. Moisture and upper level support for this boundary weakens considerably as it pushes across the region and rainfall/storm chances definitely higher across inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley of inland North FL this afternoon, before lingering rainfall chances reach the Atlantic Coastal areas by the late afternoon and evening hours. Breezy Southwest winds at 10-20 mph today with gusts to 30 mph ahead of this boundary will push Max temps well into the 80s with some upper 80s expected across most of NE FL and coastal SE GA. Severe weather is not expected from these storms, but some gusty winds to 40 mph possible in some of the stronger activity over inland areas this afternoon. This boundary sags southward through the rest of NE FL and into the Atlantic Coastal waters tonight with some leftover showers possible this evening, otherwise clearing skies as winds become northerly overnight with lows falling into the 50s across SE GA and lower 60s across NE FL by Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1207 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Cold front will continue to move off to the southeast Monday morning, as high pressure builds over the southeastern US behind it. The high will move off the southeast US coast during the afternoon, with a weak trough developing along the local coast. A dry day is expected for Monday with winds remaining gusty at the coast. Temperatures will trend below normal Monday, especially at the coast due to the onshore flow, as coastal water temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s. The high will remain centered to the northeast of the region Monday night, with weak inverted trough near the coast. It will be a dry night. The flow will be light across the area, but onshore near the FL coast. With this onshore flow along FL coast, and a cool over land flow inland, a wide range in temperatures is expected. Lows will range from the upper 40s over interior SE GA, to the middle 60s along the NE FL coast. The high will center to the east northeast of the region Tuesday, as a front approaches from the northwest. A dry day is forecast. Temperatures will be warmest inland, as the east coast sea breeze will limit readings near the coast. The cold front will move southeast across area Tuesday night. The front will weaken as it encounters drier air over area, so keeping precipitation chances out of forecast. Lows will range from the middle 50s inland to the lower 60s coast. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 1207 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 High pressure will move from northwest of the area to the northeast of the area this period. Dry weather is expected to persist. The best potential for precipitation will be late in the period, due to increasing moisture in a southeast flow, but this activity may hold off through the daylight hours. Above normal temperatures Wednesday, will be followed by a period of below normal readings. Temperatures could recover to near to above normal Saturday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 VFR conds early this morning except for some brief MVFR vsbys at VQQ before sunrise. SW winds increase to 10-12G15-18 knots through this afternoon before scattered shower chances expected at all TAF sites in the 20-24Z time frame, TSRA chances still too low to include at this time. CIGS lower with the frontal passage in the 00-06Z time frame, but are expected to remain at VFR levels at this time as winds become NW and remain close to 5 knots or so. && .MARINE... Issued at 1207 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 A weakening cold front will enter the southeastern states today, bringing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to the local waters this evening. Northwesterly winds will briefly strengthen to Caution levels in the wake of this frontal passage late tonight and Monday morning. Weak high pressure will shift over our local waters on Monday afternoon and evening, with this feature then shifting offshore ahead of a dry cold front that will likely cross our area on Tuesday night. Stronger high pressure will build from the lower Mississippi Valley towards the Tennessee Valley around midweek in the wake of this frontal passage, resulting in strengthening northeasterly winds and building seas across our local waters. Rip Currents: Elevated rip current risk today as longer period swells push into the surf zone and will maintain a high risk of rips at NE FL beaches with surf/breakers of 3-5 ft, while a Moderate Risk of rips is expected at SE GA beaches with surf/breakers of 2-4 ft. Winds shift to the Northeast on Monday and will continue at least a Moderate risk of rip currents at NE FL/SE GA beaches. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1207 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Minor Tidal/Coastal flooding will continue today around times of high tide along the St. Johns River Basin, mainly south of JAX, with peak water levels in the 1.5 to 2.0 ft MHHW range and Coastal Flood Advisory will remain intact through this afternoon. The shift to offshore flow later today should help to drain enough of the trapped tides from the St. Johns River Basin to allow the Coastal Flood Advisory to expire by this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 83 50 76 48 / 60 20 0 0 SSI 81 59 73 61 / 30 30 0 0 JAX 87 59 76 58 / 50 20 0 0 SGJ 86 64 77 65 / 40 30 0 0 GNV 87 61 81 59 / 50 30 0 0 OCF 87 64 81 63 / 50 30 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ038- 132-137-138-325-633. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1248850 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:18 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1209 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - High Rip Current Risk at the Northeast FL Beaches - Isolated TStorms Possible on Sunday Afternoon & Evening - Minor Tidal Flooding this Weekend for the St. Johns Basin. Main Impact Area: Downtown Jacksonville Southward && .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 1207 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Warm and breezy conditions today as weakening cold frontal boundary pushes across the region from NW to SE with scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms possible. Moisture and upper level support for this boundary weakens considerably as it pushes across the region and rainfall/storm chances definitely higher across inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley of inland North FL this afternoon, before lingering rainfall chances reach the Atlantic Coastal areas by the late afternoon and evening hours. Breezy Southwest winds at 10-20 mph today with gusts to 30 mph ahead of this boundary will push Max temps well into the 80s with some upper 80s expected across most of NE FL and coastal SE GA. Severe weather is not expected from these storms, but some gusty winds to 40 mph possible in some of the stronger activity over inland areas this afternoon. This boundary sags southward through the rest of NE FL and into the Atlantic Coastal waters tonight with some leftover showers possible this evening, otherwise clearing skies as winds become northerly overnight with lows falling into the 50s across SE GA and lower 60s across NE FL by Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1207 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Cold front will continue to move off to the southeast Monday morning, as high pressure builds over the southeastern US behind it. The high will move off the southeast US coast during the afternoon, with a weak trough developing along the local coast. A dry day is expected for Monday with winds remaining gusty at the coast. Temperatures will trend below normal Monday, especially at the coast due to the onshore flow, as coastal water temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s. The high will remain centered to the northeast of the region Monday night, with weak inverted trough near the coast. It will be a dry night. The flow will be light across the area, but onshore near the FL coast. With this onshore flow along FL coast, and a cool over land flow inland, a wide range in temperatures is expected. Lows will range from the upper 40s over interior SE GA, to the middle 60s along the NE FL coast. The high will center to the east northeast of the region Tuesday, as a front approaches from the northwest. A dry day is forecast. Temperatures will be warmest inland, as the east coast sea breeze will limit readings near the coast. The cold front will move southeast across area Tuesday night. The front will weaken as it encounters drier air over area, so keeping precipitation chances out of forecast. Lows will range from the middle 50s inland to the lower 60s coast. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 1207 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 High pressure will move from northwest of the area to the northeast of the area this period. Dry weather is expected to persist. The best potential for precipitation will be late in the period, due to increasing moisture in a southeast flow, but this activity may hold off through the daylight hours. Above normal temperatures Wednesday, will be followed by a period of below normal readings. Temperatures could recover to near to above normal Saturday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 712 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Patchy inland fog could lead to a period of restrictions overnight for KVQQ and KGNV, otherwise prevailing VFR conditions are forecast this TAF period. Isolated to scattered showers are expected to move east southeast across the area during the afternoon. Thunderstorms can not be ruled out, but the chance is low. The best chance for an isolated storm will be inland, possibly affecting KGNV in the afternoon. Brief restrictions will be possible in and near precipitation. && .MARINE... Issued at 1207 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 A weakening cold front will enter the southeastern states today, bringing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to the local waters this evening. Northwesterly winds will briefly strengthen to Caution levels in the wake of this frontal passage late tonight and Monday morning. Weak high pressure will shift over our local waters on Monday afternoon and evening, with this feature then shifting offshore ahead of a dry cold front that will likely cross our area on Tuesday night. Stronger high pressure will build from the lower Mississippi Valley towards the Tennessee Valley around midweek in the wake of this frontal passage, resulting in strengthening northeasterly winds and building seas across our local waters. Rip Currents: Elevated rip current risk today as longer period swells push into the surf zone and will maintain a high risk of rips at NE FL beaches with surf/breakers of 3-5 ft, while a Moderate Risk of rips is expected at SE GA beaches with surf/breakers of 2-4 ft. Winds shift to the Northeast on Monday and will continue at least a Moderate risk of rip currents at NE FL/SE GA beaches. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1207 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Minor Tidal/Coastal flooding will continue today around times of high tide along the St. Johns River Basin, mainly south of JAX, with peak water levels in the 1.5 to 2.0 ft MHHW range and Coastal Flood Advisory will remain intact through this afternoon. The shift to offshore flow later today should help to drain enough of the trapped tides from the St. Johns River Basin to allow the Coastal Flood Advisory to expire by this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 83 50 76 48 / 60 20 0 0 SSI 81 59 73 61 / 30 30 0 0 JAX 87 59 76 58 / 50 20 0 0 SGJ 86 64 77 65 / 40 30 0 0 GNV 87 61 81 59 / 50 30 0 0 OCF 87 64 81 63 / 50 30 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ038- 132-137-138-325-633. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1248849 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:03 AM 19.Oct.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1054 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1049 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 * Life-threatening rip currents return Sunday into Monday and again next weekend. * Beaches may narrow or become impassable during high tide cycles next week. * Above normal temperatures continue with record or near record warmth across the Rio Grande Valley Sunday into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 A surface low drags a frontal boundary southward into Deep South Texas by Sunday afternoon setting up a comfortable but breezy Sunday with a northeasterly wind shift and little else. Temperatures will not drop with this front and POPs remain very low, less than 10 percent. The subtropical ridge then returns through next week, with another weak frontal boundary and surface high gradually working southeastward mid to late week, maintaining generally dry conditions through the period for most locations with a low, less than 15 percent, rain chance along the sea breeze Wednesday through Friday. Low pressure in the Southern Plains will strengthen the pressure gradient next Friday and Saturday, bringing back a warm breeze along the lower Texas coast. Another frontal boundary with weak low pressure at the surface arrives on Saturday with a low (20 percent) chance of rain. Well above normal temperatures continue through the period, approaching record highs across the RGV Sunday through Tuesday. There is a moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk Sunday and Tuesday along the Rio Grande. A moderate rip current risk returns Sunday through Monday and again Friday into Saturday. Long period swell may also help narrow beaches along high tide cycles as astronomical tides begin to increase this week. Current MHHW observations are 1 foot above guidance, which begins to run near Coastal Flood Statement criteria by high tide Sunday afternoon. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 VFR conditions are expected into late tonight with diminishing southeasterly winds. Patchy fog is expected to develop late tonight with MVFR to occasionally IFR visibility, with lower confidence in prevailing IFR conditions at this time. HRL may be the best location for any dense fog near daybreak. A frontal boundary with northeasterly winds arrives by mid-morning Sunday, gusting over 20 kts Sunday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 A northeasterly push behind the frontal boundary works south across coastal waters late Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon. SCEC conditions are becoming more likely, with a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions possible across the bay and mainly nearshore waters late Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon. Have low confidence in SCA winds at this time. There is a brief low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms along the front, mainly offshore Sunday morning. Southeasterly flow returns early next week with a long period easterly swell as high pressure persists across the northern Gulf. A brief and weak northeasterly wind shift arrives Wednesday, returning to southeasterly Thursday through Saturday. The pressure gradient strengthens next weekend, increasing winds and building seas. Another low (15 to 20 percent) chance of rain arrives mainly offshore Wednesday through Friday, with a low to medium (20 to 30 percent) chance on Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Relative humidity values drop Sunday afternoon to near or below 30 percent across Jim Hogg and Starr counties and below 20-25 percent across Zapata County. At this time, 20 foot winds remain near or below 10 mph, with the strongest wind gusts generally prior to the lowest relative humidity values or after humidity returns. Given the persistent dry conditions and abnormally dry to moderate drought ongoing across Zapata County, fire concerns are low but not zero given this setup, and likely fall shy of a Fire Danger Statement. Still, future monitoring may be necessary if winds arrive stronger than expected or moisture drops further and faster. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Record high temperatures may be approached Sunday through Tuesday across the Rio Grande Valley, especially Sunday and Tuesday in Brownsville and Tuesday in McAllen. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 76 93 75 91 / 0 10 0 0 HARLINGEN 71 95 70 94 / 0 10 0 0 MCALLEN 74 98 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 71 98 70 97 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 86 79 86 / 0 10 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 90 74 89 / 0 10 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
