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Slt ch development in the subtropical Atlantic. Disturbance would most likely stay out at sea
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| #1278973 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 AM 16.Sep.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 100 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated. No major changes coming down the track for the forecast over the next several days. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Drier air sticks around through Friday. Little to no rain chances. - 2) Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1...Drier air sticks around through Friday. Little to no rain chances. Latest surface analysis shows the cold front well to the south near the GA/FL border. ENE to NE flow has taken over at the surface this afternoon, and dewpoints are hovering in the low- to-mid 60s for most. There are even readings in the upper 50s in parts of the NC coastal plain, thanks to boundary layer mixing. Clear and calm with not much going on through Thursday. Though temperatures have gone down overall, the high temperatures are still hanging near normal for mid-September. May have some lows dip down into the upper 50s tonight in the cool spots of Bladen and Pender Counties. High temperatures expected to increase by about a degree or so each day, with 90F coming back into play by Thursday. Dewpoints should continue to hold in the low-to-mid 60s. More earnest air mass modification takes hold on Friday, where widespread highs in the lower 90s become the theme once again (mid-to-upper 80s at the coast). Dewpoints start coming up into the upper 60s, perhaps near 70F in some spots. Some lingering energy aloft may allow for an isolated shower or storm over parts of the Pee Dee region Friday afternoon, but overall, the grand majority of the area should remain dry. .KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible this weekend. Another front drops in from the north, and increased onshore flow kicks up again. Dewpoints in the 70s return this weekend, particularly by Sunday. The front itself looks relatively weak, but enough to aid in afternoon convection along the seabreeze. Highs remain in the lower 90s inland, mid 80s at the coast. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High confidence in VFR. A few VFR CIGs possible in onshore flow this afternoon at coastal terminals. Extended Outlook... VFR through Friday. Low chance of restrictions this weekend, due to the return of afternoon convection. Fog possible Friday and Saturday night. && .MARINE... Through Sunday...Went ahead and cancelled the Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters from Surf City, NC to Little River Inlet, SC out 20 nm, but the advisory continues down into the South Santee River out 20 nm until 8 PM EDT this evening. Look for occasional ENE gusts up to 25 kts in those spots. From there, a fresh breeze out of the E to NE will improve to a moderate breeze through Wednesday night, improving even further to a gentle breeze through Thursday night. Seas initially at 3-5 ft within the coastal waters out 20 nm, up to 6 ft out 60 nm from shore. These seas improve towards 2-4 ft. By Friday, brief onshore flow at a light to gentle breeze will quickly flip back to E and NE flow by the weekend, going up towards a moderate breeze at times. Seas range from 1-2 ft out 20 nm to up to 3 ft out 60 nm. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1278974 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 AM 16.Sep.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 115 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 114 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026 - Strong northeast winds will cause hazardous marine conditions across the northeast Gulf waters tonight through Thursday afternoon. - A high risk of rip currents at local beaches is expected starting tonight and continuing through late this week. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (This Evening through next Monday) Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Deep layer ridging will continue over the region through today, keeping temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and dew points in the upper 60s into low 70s. Later this evening into the overnight hours, a backdoor cold front will move in from the Carolinas, as the center of the surface high translates off to the northeast. There is a slight chance for isolated showers/thunderstorms to develop along the front and move towards the I-10 / I-75 corridor this evening. PoPs are around 30-50% with higher chances in the FL SE Big Bend. Breezy conditions will also begin as the front passes through the region and continues through Wednesday. Winds will be easterly/northeasterly at around 15 mph with occasional gusts up to 25 mph during the afternoon on Wednesday. Behind the front, drier air will filter into the region, cutting off our rain chances for the next few days. Rain chances will be limited to our marine zones as inland PWATs will range from 1.3"-1.5". The northeasterly flow will allow for slightly cooler temperatures with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will be noticeably cooler with temperatures in the upper 60s. Dewpoints Wednesday and Thursday nights will dip into the upper 50s. An upper level trough, extending from the Bahamas will slowly drift westward over the FL Peninsula to start the weekend. As this occurs, the upper level ridge will retreat westward, allowing for moisture to move in from the south. This will bring back chances for showers/thunderstorms for the weekend. Lingering north/easterly flow will keep temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s for the extended period. However, the humidity will return with dewpoints in the 60s and low 70s. This will allow for heat indices to warm to the upper 90s to around 100 degrees by this weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 114 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals the next 24 hours. E/NE winds around 5-10 kt tonight will become gusty during the daytime hours with gusts around 20 kt, then subside again after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 A cold front will come through over the waters this evening, increasing the easterly winds to 20-25kts and seas will increase to 4-6 feet, with the occasional 7-8 feet for the offshore waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for tonight through Thursday. Winds and seas will gradually relax into this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Breezy easterly winds will begin today, and become more northeasterly on Wednesday with occasional gusts around 20-25 kts. Dispersions for this week will be elevated, especially within the ANF. Pockets in the SE Alabama and Florida Wiregrass region can expect to see high dispersions on Wednesday. Pockets of high dispersions are likely in the same locations for Thursday, and extending to the I-75 corridor. MinRH values will remain above critical in the 30%s to 40%s. Temperatures will cool slightly for Wednesday through the weekend with afternoon highs in the low 90s. Rain and thunderstorm chances begin to return over the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 No flash or riverine flooding concerns over the next several days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 92 71 91 69 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 92 72 90 72 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 91 67 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 91 67 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 91 69 91 68 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 90 72 89 70 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 91 75 89 75 / 10 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ Thursday for GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1278970 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:24 AM 16.Sep.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1116 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1116 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 - A High Risk of rip currents is expected for Wednesday and Thursday. A High Surf Advisory may also become necessary as surf heights near 5 feet. - Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous conditions for small craft over the open Gulf from late tonight through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1116 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 A large upper high pressure system centered over the Tennessee Valley will retrograde westward to become centered over the ARKLATEX region Thursday evening. This upper high will remain nearly stationary Friday through the weekend but diminish in size as an upper low pressure area off the east Florida coast moves westward over the Florida Peninsula on Friday, and then into the eastern Gulf by the weekend. The upper low is expected to come to a crawl somewhere over the Gulf this weekend into early next week, but not exactly sure at this time where this may occur due to model differences. The GFS has the upper low nearly stalling over the north central Gulf on Sunday while the ECMWF and Canadian barely get out of the starting blocks and have it stalling near the Florida Big Bend area on Saturday. The surface ridge across the southern Appalachians into the Southeastern U.S. however will remain largely intact, but we are expecting a weak surface trough reflected at the surface associated with the upper low somewhere across the Gulf over the weekend into early next week. In the meantime, we are still looking at an easterly flow keeping the drier air flowing into our area through at least the remainder of the week with daytime humidity levels remaining low. Outside of a few spotty showers today across coastal Alabama into southeast Mississippi, the forecast area will remain rain-free through Saturday morning, followed by a daily occurrence of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms returning over the weekend through the remainder of the forecast. Temperatures will remain above normal through the forecast. /22 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 656 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the evening with light southeasterly winds becoming light and variable after sunset. Some MVFR ceilings may reach inland along the coast, especially during the predawn to sunrise hours. Winds increase from east to west by dawn to 10-15 knots and prevail easterly. Expect wind gusts up to 25 knots, especially along the coast and marine areas. There is low confidence in isolated showers and thunderstorms along the coast and offshore in the morning. SS/97 && .MARINE... Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Light to moderate easterly to southeasterly flow becomes strong Wednesday into Thursday. Winds relax to light to occasionally moderate easterlies to end the week. Seas increase to 4 to 7 feet on Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the marine waters late tonight through Thursday afternoon. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 94 75 91 71 / 0 0 10 0 Pensacola 93 77 91 74 / 10 10 0 0 Destin 92 78 91 74 / 20 0 0 0 Evergreen 97 74 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 97 73 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 97 74 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 94 74 91 69 / 10 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT Wednesday through Thursday evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT Wednesday through Thursday evening for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655-670- 675. && $$ |
| #1278969 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:03 AM 16.Sep.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1051 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1041 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 - A Special Weather Statement (SPS) is in effect for Southern Hidalgo County as well as the coastal and inland portions of Kenedy, Willacy and Cameron counties (minus the barrier islands) on Wednesday for heat indices of 108-111 F, generally occurring within the hours of 11 AM to 6 PM. - Near record-breaking heat and major to extreme risks of heat related illnesses (levels 3/4 and 4/4) on Wednesday improve to a moderate (level 2/4) to major risk by Thursday. - Chances of rain increase to a low to medium (30-60%) chance and 30-50% chance on Thursday and Friday, respectively, minimize over the weekend and increase again next week. - A low risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through Wednesday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1041 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 The first focus of the forecast remains the brutal, near record triple digit heat expected again on Wednesday as ridging aloft and plentiful sunshine soars temperatures to around 6-8 degrees above average and enhancing moisture causes heat indices to max out around 105-111 F across the region, with extreme risks of heat- related illnesses expected across most of the RGV/Rio Grande Plains and a major heat risk elsewhere. Once again, a SPS is in effect on Wednesday across the lower and mid RGV, not including the barrier islands, for heat indices of 108-111 F, possibly briefly hotter. The second focus is the anticipated unsettled weather brought in by a slight weather pattern change; a 1020-1030 mb surface high over the East Coast spills southwestward to the Gulf and transitions winds to easterly by Wednesday morning, gusting to near 20-25+ mph in the afternoon. This will aid in advecting inland deep Gulf moisture associated with a developing shortwave trough along the southern periphery of a retreating high pressure aloft, moistening PWAT values throughout Wednesday, peaking as high as 2.0-2.4+ in. Wednesday night into Friday before gradually drying throughout the later half of Friday; chances of rain along the daytime seabreeze boundary increase from a low (10-15%) chance across the lower and mid RGV on Wednesday to a region-wide low to medium (30-60%) and 20-50% chance on Thursday and Friday, respectively. Total forecast rainfall amounts Thursday into Friday have trended down, only expecting up to 0.20 of an inch. However, given such high moisture content, heavy downpours and some localized minor flooding are possible, particularly within any slower-moving or training of thunderstorms on Thursday and possibly Friday, which could quickly drop half an inch or more of rain. Increased cloud coverage Thursday and Friday, followed by drier air funneling into the region as ridging resumes over the weekend, should help cool off temperatures to mostly the upper 90s by Thursday, which is still around 5 degrees above average, as well as improve heat risks from moderate to major on Thursday to mostly moderate Friday into Saturday. Yet, moisture and temperatures could rebound towards the end of the weekend, leading to moderate to major heat risks with additional SPSs for heat are possible by Sunday. Low to medium chances of rain return next week, potentially knocking down temperatures and improving heat risks again. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Gusty southeasterly winds (15-20 kt, gusting to 23-26 kt) continue through the next few hours before winding down later this evening and into the overnight hours, becoming light and/or variable to calm by late tonight. Winds shift out of the east tomorrow morning, increasing to near 10-15 kt, gusting to 20-25 kt in the afternoon. There is a low (15-20%) chance of isolated showers and a brief thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon, but probabilities are too low to include within the TAFs at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1041 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds become northeasterly to easterly on Wednesday and easterly to southeasterly again over the weekend. Slight to moderate (2-4 ft) seas build to moderate (3-5 ft) Thursday before improving back to slight to moderate by Sunday. Low to medium (20-40%) chances of rain on Wednesday increase to a medium to likely (40-70%) chance on Thursday followed by a low to medium (20-50%) chance on Friday and Saturday. Chances of rain continue into next week as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 97 80 95 / 0 10 20 40 HARLINGEN 76 99 76 97 / 0 10 20 40 MCALLEN 80 103 80 99 / 0 10 10 60 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 103 78 99 / 0 10 0 50 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 89 81 88 / 0 10 30 40 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 95 78 94 / 0 10 20 40 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
