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There is currently nothing on the horizon tropically in the Atlantic before Hurricane Season starts on June 1st.
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| #1181349 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:09 AM 23.May.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1101 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will persist into late week. Diurnal convection and hot temperatures expected during the holiday weekend. A cold front might bring impacts to our area on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Tonight: Conditions will remain similar to the previous night with sfc high pressure persisting across the local area under a ridge axis aloft. The first half of the night will experience favorable radiational cooling conditions with winds decoupling and becoming light/calm under clear skies. However, some cirrus will continue to shift across the region overnight, limiting cooling potential a few degrees after midnight. Patchy fog becomes a possibility a few hours prior to daybreak, mainly across inland areas of southeast South Carolina where sfc temps dip into the lower 60s. However, high clouds and drier grounds should limit greater fog coverage late. Elsewhere, lows in the mid 60s are anticipated across southeast Georgia while temps remain in the upper 60s/lower 70s closer to the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Thursday: The day will begin with the H5 ridge along the coast, shifting east through the afternoon. A shallow H5 trough will slide over the southern Appalachians during the afternoon. At the sfc, a wavy front should remain across the Ohio River Valley, with moisture pooling to the east. Short term guidance indicates that a weak sea breeze may develop Thursday afternoon. However, with poor lapse rates lingering llvl CIN should keep the forecast area dry. High temperatures are forecast to range around 90 degrees. Friday, the H5 heights will remain generally zonal with a weak trough across the Coastal Plain in the afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a sea breeze Friday afternoon. Given sfc conditions in the low 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, a wide field of instability should develop during the heat of the afternoon. Saturday, models indicate that broad H5 trough will develop across the Southeast U.S. At the sfc, a weak trough is expected to form along the coast, reinforced with an afternoon sea breeze. High temperatures will once again favor values in the low 90s. However, dewpoints should increase, generally ranging in the upper 60s to around 70. Deep moisture convergence and instability along and west of the sea breeze should support isolated to scattered thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mid-level ridging should build across the region on Sunday. The forecast area will remain between deep low pressure over the Ohio River Valley and high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This pattern should provide the region with deep south winds. Given the ridge overhead, showers and thunderstorms should hold off until the afternoon and evening, forming along the sea breeze. Sunday is expected to be the hottest day, with mid 90s possible across the forecast area. The H5 ridge will remain across the forecast area on Monday. Sfc high pressure over FL is expected to ridge northward across the CWA. The forecast will continue to feature isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with highs in the low 90s. A cold front is forecast to impact the region on Tuesday. At this time, the forecast will feature PoPs in the high chance range. With the late arrival of the front and convection, temperatures may reach the low 90s. Wednesday, temperatures may range a bit cooler, with values in the upper 80s. Slight dryer conditions should result in lesser coverage of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are expected at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 00Z Friday. However, patchy fog could briefly produce MVFR vsbys between the 09-13Z Thursday time frame. At this time, JZI includes TEMPO MVFR vsbys during this time while CHS/SAV remain VFR. Extended Aviation Outlook: Mainly VFR through Thursday night. Brief flight restrictions are possible due to showers/thunderstorms each afternoon/evening beginning on Friday. && .MARINE... Tonight: High pressure will persist across local waters, leading to a fairly relaxed pressure gradient. Winds should remain around 10 kt or less, slowly veering from southeast to south/southwest late. Seas will be no higher than 1-3 ft, slowly subsiding through the night as well. Extended Marine: High pressure should yield typical summer-time weather across the forecast area. In fact, a sea breeze is expected to develop each afternoon through the holiday weekend. A cold front may arrive on Tuesday, bringing an increase in thunderstorm activity. Otherwise, conditions should remain below Small Craft Advisory conditions. Rip Currents: On Thursday, the combination of astronomical influences from the Full Moon and a small swell will lead to an enhanced risk of rip currents at all of our beaches. The in-house Rip Current Calculator continues to indicate a Moderate Risk, while the Rip Current MOS points to a Low Risk. For consistency, we maintained the Moderate Risk. Rip currents are most likely at Tybee Island. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1181348 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:51 AM 23.May.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1044 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will retreat offshore tonight and Thursday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will grow as a series of upper level disturbances move across the region late Thursday through Saturday while a frontal boundary stalls just north of the area. Inland temperatures will rise into the 90s early next week, then should cool behind a CFP Tuesday night. && .UPDATE... Kept the fog patchy in coverage. Did add additional clouds, low stratus ie. 1k ft or less, mainly across the coastal counties during the pre-dawn hrs up to a few hrs after sunrise Thu. This based on latest guidance using various model time height series for locations across the FA. )ne thing that stood out was a 10-20 kt SSW-SW winds just off the deck that should help keep mixing avbl to keep fog limited in its occurrence and coverage. Marine, did up SSW-SW winds up by a kt or 2, which brings speeds around 10 kt. Seas generally around 2 ft with an E swell at 8 to 10 second periods dominating with the short period chop on top. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure had been nosing in from the NE has retreated and most of the area now seeing light S to SE winds. This will remain the case for the entire near term meaning quiet weather tonight with seasonable temperatures. In the mid levels will will transition from ridging to flatter flow, the latter always more susceptible to housing shortwaves. The vorts depicted in guidance are quite weak and for the most part stay to our north. Will continue to maintain POPs capped at 30 over nrn zones but could definitely see how we get one last rain-free day Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A positively tilted mid and upper ridge axis will move off the Carolina coast Thursday evening, allowing colder air at 500 and 700 mb to flood in from the west across the Carolinas. The strongly capped airmass we`ve enjoyed for the past couple of days will be replaced by moderate convective instability, no mid level cap, and precipitable water values up to 1.8 inches. Although scattered showers or thunderstorms may dot the area Thursday night into Friday morning, we`ll be watching for the arrival of what could be a well-defined upper disturbance later on Friday. This potential disturbance appears to be convectively generated on the GFS/Canadian/ECMWF Thursday afternoon across NE Texas and moves quickly eastward across the Mid South. Assuming this actually occurs as expected, higher shower and t-storm chances should develop here Friday afternoon into the evening hours. SPC does not have a Day 3 risk area outlined, however strengthened mid level flow and steep lapse rates could generate a wind threat. Saturday`s forecast gets a little murky given the potential for subsidence and mesoscale capping behind any Friday night storms lingering offshore, but I`m still going to keep scattered mainly afternoon showers and t-storms in the forecast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Our 500 mb heights should rise by 40 meters between Saturday evening and Sunday evening as an upper level ridge across the Gulf of Mexico expands northeastward. While it might seem like an easy "win" to remove all convection from the forecast with renewed capping aloft, there`s still the westerly upper level flow to contend with which can easily bring fast-moving MCSs across the Carolinas given rather subtle disturbances aloft. For this reason I won`t stray too far from blended MOS PoPs through the extended period. As the ridging aloft builds Sunday and Monday it appears inland high temperatures may soar to 91-94 degrees, near the warmest of the year so far and similar to what we experienced back on May 8th. For Tuesday and Wednesday, all models want to carve out a trough across the Great Lakes extending southward to the southern Appalachians. There are indications 500 mb heights could fall by 40-60 meters by Wednesday with decreases in temperatures expected behind a Tuesday night cold front. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR for the most part, the only exception will be the chance for MVFR fog and/or MVFR/IFR low stratus around or below 1k ft, during the pre-dawn Thu hrs up thru 12Z Thu. SSW-SW winds 10-20 kt just off the deck will help keep the sfc winds at or below 5 kt after the demise of the sea breeze. This will help keep sfc rad fog limited but the elevated moisture may be enough for low stratus around 1k ft or lower. Extended Outlook...Mostly VFR outside morning low clouds/fog through Fri morning followed by periodic showers/storms starting late Thu night with the threat last through Mon as a cold front stalls in the vicinity. && .MARINE... Through Thursday...The continued retreat of higher pressures will continue to lead to minor veering of the winds from SE to S while speeds remain capped at 10kt. With only a tiny swell component that leaves mainly wind waves, capped at 2 ft through the period. Thursday night through Monday...High pressure will retreat farther offshore late this week as a weak cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Light southwest winds are expected with seas only 2-3 feet. As the atmosphere becomes more unstable getting out from beneath the warm ridging aloft, isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop as early as Thursday night with better chances developing Friday night. It appears the front won`t make it down to the coastline, instead stalling across interior North and South Carolina Saturday. Thunderstorm outflow could temporarily shift winds across the coastal waters northwesterly Saturday night, but winds should come back around to the south and southwest again on Sunday. Southwest winds should increase to 15-20 kt Monday as a strong (for the season) area of low pressure moves across the Great Lakes. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1181347 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 AM 23.May.2024) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1040 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A high pressure remains just southeast of New England, setting the stage for summerlike warmth through Thursday away from the immediate south coast. Mostly dry weather is expected today, then an approaching cold front will bring a round of showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through at least the evening. A few strong to severe storms are possible. Mainly dry on Friday with it remaining mild. Unsettled through this weekend with hit or miss showers and thunderstorms. Turning more seasonable early next week with a better opportunity for widespread rains. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Rather quiet weather continues across southern New England this evening. Satellite data showed a couple bands of stratus. One was across the upper and mid Cape, with another extending NE across Nantucket. Will be monitoring these clouds closely overnight. The closest rainfall was across southern NY/northeast PA. Lightning activity was diminishing as it moved east. Not much buoyancy or shear across southern New England per the latest SPC mesoanalysis. Expecting only a few showers at most, should these showers persist long enough to move into southern New England overnight. Otherwise, only minor tweaks to bring the forecast back in line with observed trends. Previous Discussion... Hot temperatures and clear skies (save for some diurnal cumulus over western MA) are the story of the day this afternoon as we remain under control of the same high pressure to our south that has been in place for a few days. Locations in east/northeast MA are currently sitting in the low 90s (with a few spots in the CT valley as well). We should see a few more locations join the 90 degree club before things start cooling this evening. The exception to the rule is south coastal RI and MA where the cool onshore flow is keeping temps in the 60s and 70s. Can`t rule out a few isolated thunderstorms to make it into western MA or CT this afternoon. CAPE values are over 2,000 J/kg but soundings show a strong capping inversion keeping instability elevated and storms from initiating lacking extra forcing besides diurnal heating. Any storms that do form are not expected to last long or become severe as lack of bulk shear (less than 10 kts) and meager mid level lapse rates keep any updrafts from persisting. Tonight high level clouds increase ahead of of the incoming mid level trough as heights begin to fall and low pressure approaches. Continued warm southwesterly flow keeps lows temperatures mild, in the mid 50s (south) to mid 60s (north). This also will bring the return of fog and low stratus clouds to the south coast between midnight and 8-10 am, though confidence in the areal extent is only moderate as guidance has struggled with this as of recent. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Thursday will be the most active weather day of the week with convection and even a few severe thunderstorms expected during the afternoon and evening. The driving force of these storms is a mid level trough and surface cold front that will move east across southern New England through the day on Thursday, potentially slowing/stalling near the south coast overnight. In the warm sector dewpoints climb to the low to mid 60s. This, with temperatures in the 80s (a bit cooler than today due to increased cloudcover) and steep lapse rates will lead to CAPE values over 2,000 J/kg for all except southeast MA. The shear environment will be relatively supportive of prolonged updrafts, with 0-6 KM bulk shear values in the 30-35 kt range. While flow in the low levels will be weak, stronger mid/upper level flow will support potential for scattered severe thunderstorms with the greatest threat being damaging winds and hail. The window for greatest thunderstorm threat will be 12pm- 8pm. Confidence is only moderate as to where exactly any severe storms occur, but generally a line from PVD to BOS and west will stand the best chance. As the front sags south it slows around or just offshore and this boundary may serve as a forcing mechanism for downpours and thunderstorms to continue into the overnight hours for the immediate south coast or even just the islands. If this does occur, PWATs are quite elevated, near 1.5 inches, so some heavy downpours are possible. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Highlights * Warm and dry Friday and Saturday * Scattered thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon * Unsettled early next week with substantial precipitation possible Monday into Tuesday Friday and Saturday Deep northwest flow behind a surface cold front will advect a drier air mass over southern New England to end the week. This will bring an end to the muggy conditions expected Thursday as dewpoints drop from the mid to upper 60s to the mid to upper 50s by Friday morning. Air mass will remain on the warm side with 925 hPa temps continuing to hover between 17 and 20 Celsius. Thus we should have another afternoon with high temps in the upper 70s to low 80s, though this will be a drier/more comfortable warm than what is expected on Thursday. Warm/dry weather persists into Saturday with very little change in the forecast, Saturday should feature plenty of sunshine with highs again in the upper 70s to low 80s. There may be some increasing cloudiness Saturday afternoon as return flow from the south begins to advect higher dewpoints back into the region for the second half of the weekend. Sunday Southerly return flow allows dewpoints to climb into the upper 50s to near 60 across much of southern New England for Sunday. This will support at least partly cloudy skies for Sunday afternoon with temps continuing to peak in the low to mid 80s across interior southern New England. Latest guidance suggests a synoptic setup that would support background winds weak enough for sea-breezes to develop along the coastline. Therefore we`d expect slightly cooler temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s for the coastal locations. There does appear to be decent lapse rates and instability in the atmosphere on Sunday, so there may be a risk for isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon. Synoptic forcing for ascent looks to be on the weak side however, with possible weak height rises in the mix, so unless guidance trends towards a possible short-wave aloft to enhance forcing for ascent, would currently expect convection to be on the isolated side. Monday and Tuesday An upper-level low digs over the eastern US early next week. This will support unsettled weather with a chance for substantial precipitation Monday into Tuesday. Details are vague at this time range, but ensembles are suggesting a 50 to 60 percent chance of rainfall accumulations of 0.5 inches or higher between Monday and Tuesday morning. Check back for more details this weekend. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight...High Confidence across the interior. Moderate confidence for Cape/Islands terminals LIFR/IFR cigs in stratus/fog possible over southeast MA terminals, but low confidence in areal extent. VFR elsewhere with light southwest winds. Thursday...Low to moderate confidence. Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR/IFR in heavier showers and thunderstorms. Best chance of thunderstorms is between 16Z and 00Z. Thursday night...Low to moderate confidence. Mainly VFR, but areas of MVFR/IFR in any lingering showers and thunderstorms which may stick around for southeastern terminals through as late as 06z, and even later for ACK/FMH/HYA. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. TSRA possible as early as 16Z, but more likely between 18-00Z. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. TSRA possible as early as 15Z, but more likely between 18-22Z. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday through Saturday: VFR. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Memorial Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Thursday night...High Confidence. High pressure south of the waters maintains relatively light winds and seas through Thursday night. The main concern will be poor visibility in areas of fog reducing visibility to less than 1 mile at times tonight. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Memorial Day: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ004>007- 010>016-026. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1181346 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:30 AM 23.May.2024) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1026 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Currently - A surface through lower level Atlantic ridge stretches west southwestward across the southeast and Florida. As a result, surface winds have been light and predominantly out of the east. Sharp ridging remains in place aloft. This sharp ridging has contributed to falling precipitable water. This evenings sounding indicated around 1.25 inches with drier air now evident above a weak sub 900 mb inhibition layer. While this has drastically limited shower activity, it hasn`t prevented a number of clusters from firing along old South Florida sea breeze boundaries. These showers have been unable to make much progress into the Keys and have largely remained over our gulf and bay side waters. Short Term Update - No significant change is forecast for the overall synoptic makeup for Keys weather through the overnight period. Lower level ridging will remain in place to our north and keep winds broadly out of the east. The weak but steady flow will keep most locations lows in the 80s. However, a few locations may see near 80. There is no reason for dew points to move from the current lower 70s. Ample dry air above the boundary layer and weak inhibition will limit shower potential. No changes planned for the local forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Atlantic ridging stretching west southwestward across the southeastern United States will maintain light to gentle broadly easterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period. Only minor adjustments made in the evening marine update. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals. Surface winds will be light and broadly out of the east. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181345 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 AM 23.May.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1001 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New UPDATE, MARINE, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1002 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 It`s a dry and quiet evening across east central Florida with high pressure in place over the Southeastern US. Local observations show mostly clear skies across the state of Florida. Onshore flow will persist into Thursday with light and variable winds overnight expected to increase from the east- southeast into Thursday afternoon. Low temperatures are on track to reach the mid 60s to low 70s under clear skies. Fog is not forecast, however visibility restrictions along roadways due to lingering smoke from brush fires will still be possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 1002 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Currently-Tonight... Favorable boating conditions are forecast with high pressure in place over the western Atlantic. Light winds from the east overnight will increase into Thursday afternoon at 5-10kts. Seas are expected to build to 1-3ft. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Key Messages... -Remaining mostly dry and becoming hotter than normal through late week. -Isolated afternoon showers and storms possible into the holiday weekend, but remaining drier than normal and hot, with highs well into the 90s. Currently-Tonight...Sea breeze continues to push inland and a few brief showers have developed near Lake Okeechobee where interactions with the lake breeze have occurred. However, this activity will be limited for the rest of the afternoon across this area. Otherwise, drier air evident in GOES-16 PW value imagery will continue to build in from the east keeping dry conditions in place through the rest of today into tonight. Skies will be mostly clear and overnight lows will range from the mid 60s to low 70s. Guidance not indicating much in the way of fog development for tonight across east central Florida. However, with lighter winds forecast, smoke from any lingering active or smoldering brush fires will still be able to cause visibility concerns along area roadways, especially near the large "Sandy Drain" wildfire. Thursday...Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic will remain extended across the region into tomorrow, with ridge aloft extended from the Gulf of Mexico and northeast across the state. This combined with a drier airmass (PW values at or just below an inch) across east central FL will keep rain chances out of the forecast for Thursday. Temperatures will continue to trend upward, with highs near to above normal in the mid to upper 80s along the coast and low to mid 90s over the interior. Friday-Tuesday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Warm and muggy conditions continue to build as moisture returns and a flattening 500mb ridge holds influence over the Florida peninsula. High temperatures further climb through the weekend and into early next week, reaching the mid 90s across the interior, and possibly into the upper 90s for some inland areas, especially on Sunday and Memorial Day. Along the coast, not much relief will be had by the sea breeze, with highs still forecast to reach the low to mid 90s. Heat index values between 97-102 on Friday, increase to 100-107 degrees early next week, nearing Heat Advisory criteria. Additionally, rain chances remain below normal, with only isolated showers and storms forecast each afternoon, so not much in the way of afternoon convection to provide any relief from the hotter conditions either. Take extra precaution if participating in outdoor activities this Memorial Day weekend. Take frequent breaks in shaded or air conditioned areas and stay hydrated. Know the signs of heat related illness! && .MARINE... Issued at 350 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Tonight...Easterly winds around 10 knots early this evening will diminish to around 5 knots or less late tonight. Seas will range from 2-3 feet. Mostly dry conditions expected over the waters overnight, but a few showers will be possible over the offshore waters of the Treasure Coast late tonight. Thursday-Sunday...(Modified Previous Discussion) High pressure builds across the local waters, promoting favorable boating conditions through the period. Onshore winds veer south-southwest into Friday, backing along the coast each afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Light winds around 5-10 kts Thursday increase to 10- 15 kts into the weekend. Remaining mostly dry across the waters through late week and then isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible across the coastal waters into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 69 87 69 91 / 0 0 0 10 MCO 69 92 71 95 / 0 0 0 10 MLB 71 87 72 90 / 0 0 0 10 VRB 70 88 69 91 / 0 0 0 10 LEE 70 93 72 93 / 0 0 0 10 SFB 69 92 70 95 / 0 0 0 10 ORL 70 92 72 95 / 0 0 0 10 FPR 69 88 69 91 / 0 10 0 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1181344 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:15 AM 23.May.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 905 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 905 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 The previous forecast appears to be on track, and no major changes were made. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 359 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Warmer than normal temperatures are expected through the period with lows tonight dipping into the upper 60s to near 70 and highs Thursday reaching into the lower 90s. There is a very small chance, around 10 percent, of an isolated shower or storm along the sea breeze Thursday afternoon. An H5 ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico reaches into the Southeast and will keep us warmer than normal for a while. At the surface, a high off the Carolina coastline will mosey east later tonight into Thursday, opening the door for the return of southerly flow. This southerly flow will push dew points back into the 70s for much of the area Thursday afternoon, leading to heat indices in the middle 90s. Southerly flow will also increase precipitable water values (PWATs) to the 1.4" to 1.7" range Thursday afternoon, which is enough to possibly squeeze out an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Chances are around 10 percent at this time, but some of the convection allowing models (CAMs) do indicate the potential along the sea breeze initially before slowly pushing inland. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Friday night) Issued at 359 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 A stout subtropical ridge across the Gulf will make for very warm conditions to close out the work week. Large-scale subsidence should limit convection outside of possible isolated showers/thunderstorms forced by the seabreeze with better rain chances staying to our north. Forecast high temperatures are around 90 degrees away from the immediate coast while lows warm from upper 60s Thursday night to low 70s heading into Friday morning. These readings are few degrees above normal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 359 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Mainly hot weather defines Memorial Day Weekend as the subtropical Gulf ridge axis extends NE into the TN Valley. Widespread low 90s are forecast inland during that time with heat indices approaching or slightly exceeding 100 degrees! Overnight minimums in the low 70s will be common. However, model guidance depicts a somewhat subtle shortwave rippling across the Lower MS Valley on Saturday that may push some showers/thunderstorms south from Central AL/GA. Rain chances reflect this possibility with 15-20% PoPs mainly along/west of I-75. We could see increases in rain chances in subsequent forecasts if confidence increases. Convective potential will be on the rise by early next week in response to a northern stream longwave trough weakening our heat ridge. An attendant low-pressure system east of the Great Lakes drags a front into the region Monday or Tuesday, likely paving the way for unsettled/stormy weather. The environment should be plenty unstable and moist with adequate shear to support possible strong to severe storms. Increase cloud cover/storm activity yields slightly cooler daytime temperatures (upper 80s/low 90s). Global models appear to struggle with frontal passage near the end of the long- term period. The ECMWF depicts dry conditions mid next week while GFS has convection lingering into early Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 707 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Fog and low ceilings will be possible across the FL Panhandle overnight and may impact KECP for a few hours before sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 359 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 An additional nocturnal surge of southeasterly winds predominantly east of the mouth of the Apalachicola river is expected tonight. These winds will predominantly remain at Small Craft Exercise Caution levels during this nocturnal surge. For marine zones west of the mouth of the Apalachicola river, winds are expected to remain much calmer at around 5-10 knots out of the southeast. As high pressure slowly pushes south, winds will become southerly to southwesterly, while also remaining around 5-10 knots through the weekend. Overall, boating conditions will remain tranquil through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 359 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Fire weather concerns remain low the next couple of days with warm to hot conditions expected into the weekend. A very isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out along the sea breeze the next couple of afternoons. Some storms may sag south from Central AL/GA on Saturday. Better rain chances are forecast to arrive later Monday into Tuesday for much of the region. Mostly good dispersion values are expected away from the immediate coast through Friday with MinRH values between 40 to 55 percent. Pockets of high afternoon dispersions are possible Thursday and Friday across the northernmost districts, then look to focus across the I-75 corridor on Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 359 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Regional rivers to include the Withlacoochee, Ochlockonee, Aucilla, Choctawhatchee, and St. Marks will continue to remain in minor flood for the next couple of days before dropping below flood stage. No significant rainfall is expected in the next week, with roughly widespread rainfall totals of 0.25 to 0.50 inches forecast. These rainfall totals will not be significant enough to produce any additional flooding concerns across the area. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 69 90 68 90 / 0 10 0 10 Panama City 71 86 72 85 / 0 0 0 10 Dothan 68 89 68 89 / 0 10 0 20 Albany 69 90 68 88 / 0 10 0 10 Valdosta 69 92 68 91 / 0 10 0 10 Cross City 68 91 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 72 84 72 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181343 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:39 AM 23.May.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 837 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 829 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 A line if scattered showers continues to slowly drift westward across Collier county, the last remnants of earlier sea breeze-induced convection. The showers should continue to gradually dissipate, but a few more showers could develop through the rest of the evening hours, mainly around the Gulf coast. Overnight temps will be similar to the previous two nights with inland areas in the upper 60s and low-mid 70s near the coasts. No significant changes are required to inherited forecast with only minor updates to POPs/Wx grids to better reflect the model trend towards drier conditions Thursday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1215 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 With the mid-level shortwave continuing to propagate to the east today, 500mb flow is veering to a more northerly direction and temperatures aloft have begun to warm. Combined with background northeasterly surface flow prevailing, sea-breeze circulations will favor convective initiation across the southern inland portions of our area once again. With the Atlantic sea-breeze progressing further inland, the greatest convective activity will center over inland/suburban Miami-Dade, Mainland Monroe, and Collier Counties this afternoon albeit with less coverage. 500mb temperatures will be in the -5 to -7 C range this afternoon. This will keep the majority of thunderstorm activity in the garden variety form, although localized ascent along boundary collisions could still support the potential of a quick pulse isolated strong to severe capable of a wet microburst if the storm pulses up and collapses in a quick fashion. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s along the east coast to temperatures in the low to mid 90s across southwestern Florida. By Thursday, the mid-level ridge will continue to build and remain centered over the Gulf of Mexico during this time frame as the aforementioned shortwave remains in the western Atlantic waters. Between these two synoptic features, South Florida will remain in a light northerly 500mb flow regime with a lack of synoptic forcing across the area with the subtropical jet located well to the north of our region. At the surface, ridging situated over the southeastern United States will allow for relatively light winds across the region. Therefore, with a lack of the aforementioned synoptic support, mesoscale patterns, such as the sea-breeze circulation, will dictate temperatures and the most probable locations for convective initiation and coverage which will mainly focus across inland areas during the afternoon hours. Typical thunderstorm hazards, such as heavy rainfall and gusty winds, will be possible, but still cannot rule out isolated strong to severe pulse storms that are able to take advantage of the localized maximized ascent along boundary collisions even in the background of && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 249 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Thursday night into Friday night... The 500 mb ridge will remain over the Gulf of Mexico as a trough of low pressure moves eastward from the Central United States into the Southeastern United States. This will keep most of the deeper moisture north of South Florida during this time frame. However, the east and west coast sea breezes should develop on Friday and push inland. Where the sea breezes collide, there could be a few showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon and even hours on Friday mainly over the interior areas. Highs on Friday will be around 90 over the metro areas to the lower to mid 90s over the interior areas. This will allow for the heat indices to get up into mid to upper 90s over the metro areas to around 100 over the interior areas. Lows Thursday night and again Friday night will be lower to mid 70s over the interior areas and mid 70s over the metro areas. This weekend... The 500 mb high will weaken a little bit over the Gulf of Mexico as the trough of low pressure moves east into the Western Atlantic waters. This will allow for a weak cold front to move southward into Northern Florida from the north before dissipating. This in turn will allow for a little bit more of a south/southwest flow over South Florida this weekend. Therefore, the best coverage will be over the Lake okeechobee region and the NE areas of South Florida each afternoon. However, the POPS will be in the 20 to 30 percent range mainly over the areas mention above. Highs this weekend will be in the lower to mid 90s over the metro areas with mid 90s to near 100 over the interior areas. Heat indices will also be in the lower 100s over the metro areas to mid 100s over the interior areas. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s over the interior areas to mid to upper 70s over the metro areas. Early to mid next week... Another trough of low pressure will build into the Eastern United States for early to middle of next week. This will allow for another cold front to move southward into the Southeastern United States. This in turn will keep the south to southwest wind flow over South Florida during this time frame and allow for deeper moisture to start to work into the region from the south. Therefore, isolated to scattered POPs will possible each afternoon mainly over the interior and east coast metro areas each afternoon. At the same time, the highs will be increasing again over South Florida with lower to mid 90s over the metro areas to mid to upper 90s over the interior areas with even an isolated 100 around Lake Okeechobee region. The heat indices will also be going up into the mid 100s over most areas with even a few locations over the interior areas getting up into the upper 100s to near 110 degrees each afternoon. The lows each night will also be back into the mid 70s over the interior areas to around 80 over the metro areas. If this trend continues in later model runs, then there could be heat advisories again for South Florida for early to middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours with light and variable winds overnight, then ESE around 10kt after 15Z. APF should again experience a Gulf breeze around 17Z. Some isolated showers could develop in the afternoon, but should remain further inland and away from the terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 1215 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters throughout the period. Locally enhanced winds and seas will be possible in and around shower and thunderstorm activity across local && .MARINE... Issued at 1215 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters throughout the period. Locally enhanced winds and seas will be possible in and around shower and thunderstorm activity across local && .BEACHES... Issued at 1215 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 With onshore wind flow returning to the east coast of South Florida, a gradual increase in rip current risks will continue across the east coast through the remainder of the work-week. A moderate risk of rip currents remains in place for Palm Beach County beaches at this time, but could be extended into rest of the east coast beaches in later updates. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 77 89 77 91 / 10 30 10 10 West Kendall 74 91 73 93 / 20 30 10 10 Opa-Locka 76 90 76 93 / 10 30 10 10 Homestead 76 89 76 91 / 20 30 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 77 88 77 89 / 10 30 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 76 88 76 90 / 10 20 10 10 Pembroke Pines 76 92 77 94 / 10 30 10 10 West Palm Beach 74 88 73 91 / 0 20 0 10 Boca Raton 75 89 75 91 / 10 20 10 10 Naples 75 93 77 92 / 20 20 20 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181342 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:36 AM 23.May.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 827 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain situated off the Southeast coast through the end of the week. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms to end the week and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 815 PM EDT Wednesday... Key message: - A slight chance for a shower across the far N/NW. High pressure is situated well off the southeast coast this evening, with low pressure across the Great Lakes, and a weak lee trough still noticeable in the pressure field just to the west of our FA. Aloft, the flow is from the W, around a flat ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico ENE to a position off the Carolina coast. It remains quite warm, with temperatures still mostly in the upper 70s/lower 80s W of the Bay, with upper 60s to mid 70s on the eastern shore. With the loss of daytime heating, and the main upper trough still off to the W, the convection that developed across the Appalachians has weakened/diminished by the time it reached into far western sections of the CWA. With little to no instability to the E, it appears that showers and any embedded storms will struggle to hold together overnight locally. Some of the CAMs suggest an isolated shower will still be possible over the far N/NW overnight so will keep a slight chc mention (15-20%) PoP there, but 10% or less elsewhere. Variably cloudy overnight and rather warm with lows in the mid to upper 60s for most areas. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Summerlike and more humid Thursday with high temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90F. - Chances for thunderstorms later Thursday into Thursday evening. A few of these storms may be strong to severe. An upper trough and cold front approach from the NW on Thursday. 850mb temperatures will still be ~16C supporting highs once again in the mid 80s to near 90F, (lower to mid 80s over the far NW and the eastern shore). The upper trough and cold front will provide a trigger for showers/tstms in a moderately unstable airmass with strong surface heating and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. This combined with 500mb flow of 30-40kt could result in a few stronger to severe tstms. SPC has maintained a marginal risk for our area. However, some of the CAMs are looking more robust with respect to thunderstorm coverage/intensity late Thursday, especially along and south of the VA Hwy 460 corridor. Primary threats will be localized damaging wind gusts and hail. Showers/tstms diminish in coverage Thursday night with low temperatures ranging through the 60s. The front stalls in vicinity of the area Friday. However, 12z/22 model guidance has continued to trend downward with shower/tstm chances. Forecast PoPs range from 20-30% E to 30-40% W Friday afternoon. Continued warm and moderately humid Friday with highs in the lower to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Remaining warm, and somewhat unsettled through the weekend with chances for mainly afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. The lingering frontal boundary stalls over the region over the weekend and into Memorial Day and through Tuesday as well. In addition, westerly mid and upper level flow will allow for a series of shortwaves to move across the region. Confidence on timing is very low, so the forecast will continue with daily chances of mainly afternoon/evening showers/tstms. High temperatures will mainly be in the 80s with low temperatures in the 60s through the weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday... High pressure remains offshore this evening, with low pressure across the Great Lakes. Scattered showers and isolated tstms that developed over the Appalachians have generally weakened/diminished as they approached western and northern portions of the area. VFR conditions prevail, with little to no chance for any rain into the CWA, though the sky has become partly-mostly cloudy with debris clouds (CIGs 15-25k ft). Partly cloudy overnight, with SSW winds averaging 5-10 kt, enough mixing to keep fog from developing. A cold front approaches the area Thursday bringing with it a chance for showers/tstms along with possible flight restrictions, primarily during the mid/late aftn and evening timeframe. A few storms will be capable of bringing strong/gusty winds. Still too much uncertainty w/ coverage and have handled the late aftn/early evening period with VCTS wording in the TAFs. The front looks to stall in the vicinity of the region Friday- Monday, bringing daily chances for mainly afternoon/evening showers/tstms. && .MARINE... As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Benign conditions expected on the waters through the Holiday weekend. - Shower and storm chances return Thursday afternoon and are possible again over the holiday weekend. High pressure is slowly shifting farther out to sea this afternoon, as a storm system, located over the Great Lakes, and a cold front, that stretches across the Ohio Valley, starts to approach from the NW. Expect SSE winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this evening to become SSW 5-15kt overnight tonight into Thu morning. Shower and storm chances will increase on Thursday afternoon and evening hours, with the front`s approach. But the front will be weakening as it arrives and stall across the region. It will then waffle back and forth across the area through the Holiday weekend. While this will keep the chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the weekend into early next week, the winds and seas will remain below sca levels through the weekend. Overall expect winds below 10 kts and seas 2 - 3 ft over the ocean and 1 - 2 ft in the Bay and area rivers. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday... Another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding is expected to occur later tonight into Thu morning, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac, due to the higher astronomical high tides remaining elevated. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1181341 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:33 AM 23.May.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 831 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 824 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 THe sea breeze has managed to squeeze a few showers across southwest portions of the state. These should be short lives and dissipate with the next hour or so as they move offshore. Otherwise, it has been a very warm and dry day across the CWA with SPG breaking a record high this afternoon. This trend should continue over the next several days as high pressure builds over the region. Fairly low rain chances continue during this time. No chances were made to the forecast as it remains on track. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 727 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 VFR conditions prevail across terminals through the period. Winds become easterly to northeast overnight and winds speeds should generally decrease. By the afternoon sea breeze shifts winds from the west to northwest on Thursday. Otherwise, no ceilings/vis restrictions anticipated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 75 91 76 91 / 0 10 0 10 FMY 73 93 76 93 / 20 20 10 20 GIF 70 94 73 95 / 0 10 0 10 SRQ 74 91 75 91 / 10 10 0 10 BKV 66 94 68 93 / 0 0 0 10 SPG 78 90 78 90 / 0 0 0 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1181340 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:27 AM 23.May.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 824 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New AVIATION, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 803 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 VFR and dry conditions are forecast through the TAF period with high pressure in place over the Southeastern US. East to northeast winds at 8-12kts will become light overnight, then increase from the east-southeast into Thursday afternoon at 10kts with gusts to around 15kts along the coast. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Key Messages... -Remaining mostly dry and becoming hotter than normal through late week. -Isolated afternoon showers and storms possible into the holiday weekend, but remaining drier than normal and hot, with highs well into the 90s. Currently-Tonight...Sea breeze continues to push inland and a few brief showers have developed near Lake Okeechobee where interactions with the lake breeze have occurred. However, this activity will be limited for the rest of the afternoon across this area. Otherwise, drier air evident in GOES-16 PW value imagery will continue to build in from the east keeping dry conditions in place through the rest of today into tonight. Skies will be mostly clear and overnight lows will range from the mid 60s to low 70s. Guidance not indicating much in the way of fog development for tonight across east central Florida. However, with lighter winds forecast, smoke from any lingering active or smoldering brush fires will still be able to cause visibility concerns along area roadways, especially near the large "Sandy Drain" wildfire. Thursday...Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic will remain extended across the region into tomorrow, with ridge aloft extended from the Gulf of Mexico and northeast across the state. This combined with a drier airmass (PW values at or just below an inch) across east central FL will keep rain chances out of the forecast for Thursday. Temperatures will continue to trend upward, with highs near to above normal in the mid to upper 80s along the coast and low to mid 90s over the interior. Friday-Tuesday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Warm and muggy conditions continue to build as moisture returns and a flattening 500mb ridge holds influence over the Florida peninsula. High temperatures further climb through the weekend and into early next week, reaching the mid 90s across the interior, and possibly into the upper 90s for some inland areas, especially on Sunday and Memorial Day. Along the coast, not much relief will be had by the sea breeze, with highs still forecast to reach the low to mid 90s. Heat index values between 97-102 on Friday, increase to 100-107 degrees early next week, nearing Heat Advisory criteria. Additionally, rain chances remain below normal, with only isolated showers and storms forecast each afternoon, so not much in the way of afternoon convection to provide any relief from the hotter conditions either. Take extra precaution if participating in outdoor activities this Memorial Day weekend. Take frequent breaks in shaded or air conditioned areas and stay hydrated. Know the signs of heat related illness! && .MARINE... Issued at 350 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Tonight...Easterly winds around 10 knots early this evening will diminish to around 5 knots or less late tonight. Seas will range from 2-3 feet. Mostly dry conditions expected over the waters overnight, but a few showers will be possible over the offshore waters of the Treasure Coast late tonight. Thursday-Sunday...(Modified Previous Discussion) High pressure builds across the local waters, promoting favorable boating conditions through the period. Onshore winds veer south-southwest into Friday, backing along the coast each afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Light winds around 5-10 kts Thursday increase to 10- 15 kts into the weekend. Remaining mostly dry across the waters through late week and then isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible across the coastal waters into the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 350 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Mid to Late Week...(Modified Previous Discussion) High pressure builds across east central Florida promoting drying conditions and warming temperatures. Fire sensitive conditions are forecast into late week as minimum relative humidity values fall as low as the low to mid 30s west of Orlando on Thursday afternoon, and in the upper 30s to low 40s across the interior on Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 69 87 69 91 / 0 0 0 10 MCO 69 92 71 95 / 0 0 0 10 MLB 71 87 72 90 / 0 0 0 10 VRB 70 88 69 91 / 0 0 0 10 LEE 70 93 72 93 / 0 0 0 10 SFB 69 92 70 95 / 0 0 0 10 ORL 70 92 72 95 / 0 0 0 10 FPR 69 88 69 91 / 0 10 0 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1181339 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:24 AM 23.May.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 819 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will persist into late week. Diurnal convection and hot temperatures expected during the holiday weekend. A cold front might bring impacts to our area on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Tonight: Conditions will remain quite similar to the previous night with sfc high pressure persisting across the local area under a ridge axis aloft. The first half of the night will experience favorable radiational cooling conditions with winds decoupling and becoming light/calm under clear skies. However, some cirrus should shift across the region overnight, limiting cooling potential a few degrees late. Patchy fog becomes a possibility a few hours prior to daybreak, mainly across inland areas of southeast South Carolina where sfc temps dip into the lower 60s. However, high clouds and drier grounds should limit greater fog coverage late. Elsewhere, lows in the mid 60s are anticipated across southeast Georgia while temps remain in the upper 60s/lower 70s closer to the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Thursday: The day will begin with the H5 ridge along the coast, shifting east through the afternoon. A shallow H5 trough will slide over the southern Appalachians during the afternoon. At the sfc, a wavy front should remain across the Ohio River Valley, with moisture pooling to the east. Short term guidance indicates that a weak sea breeze may develop Thursday afternoon. However, with poor lapse rates lingering llvl CIN should keep the forecast area dry. High temperatures are forecast to range around 90 degrees. Friday, the H5 heights will remain generally zonal with a weak trough across the Coastal Plain in the afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a sea breeze Friday afternoon. Given sfc conditions in the low 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, a wide field of instability should develop during the heat of the afternoon. Saturday, models indicate that broad H5 trough will develop across the Southeast U.S. At the sfc, a weak trough is expected to form along the coast, reinforced with an afternoon sea breeze. High temperatures will once again favor values in the low 90s. However, dewpoints should increase, generally ranging in the upper 60s to around 70. Deep moisture convergence and instability along and west of the sea breeze should support isolated to scattered thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mid-level ridging should build across the region on Sunday. The forecast area will remain between deep low pressure over the Ohio River Valley and high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This pattern should provide the region with deep south winds. Given the ridge overhead, showers and thunderstorms should hold off until the afternoon and evening, forming along the sea breeze. Sunday is expected to be the hottest day, with mid 90s possible across the forecast area. The H5 ridge will remain across the forecast area on Monday. Sfc high pressure over FL is expected to ridge northward across the CWA. The forecast will continue to feature isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with highs in the low 90s. A cold front is forecast to impact the region on Tuesday. At this time, the forecast will feature PoPs in the high chance range. With the late arrival of the front and convection, temperatures may reach the low 90s. Wednesday, temperatures may range a bit cooler, with values in the upper 80s. Slight dryer conditions should result in lesser coverage of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are expected at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 00Z Friday. However, patchy fog could briefly produce MVFR vsbys between the 09-13Z Thursday time frame. At this time, JZI includes TEMPO MVFR vsbys during this time while CHS/SAV remain VFR. Extended Aviation Outlook: Mainly VFR through Thursday night. Brief flight restrictions are possible due to showers/thunderstorms each afternoon/evening beginning on Friday. && .MARINE... Tonight: High pressure will persist across local waters, leading to a fairly relaxed pressure gradient. Winds should remain around 10 kt or less, slowly veering from southeast to south/southwest overnight. Seas will be no higher than 1-3 ft, slowly subsiding through the night as well. Extended Marine: High pressure should yield typical summer-time weather across the forecast area. In fact, a sea breeze is expected to develop each afternoon through the holiday weekend. A cold front may arrive on Tuesday, bringing an increase in thunderstorm activity. Otherwise, conditions should remain below Small Craft Advisory conditions. Rip Currents: On Thursday, the combination of astronomical influences from the Full Moon and a small swell will lead to an enhanced risk of rip currents at all of our beaches. The in-house Rip Current Calculator continues to indicate a Moderate Risk, while the Rip Current MOS points to a Low Risk. For consistency, we maintained the Moderate Risk. Rip currents are most likely at Tybee Island. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor flooding is briefly possible with the evening high tide Thursday along coastal Charleston and coastal Colleton Counties. There are no concerns along the remainder of our coast. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1181338 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:12 AM 23.May.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 700 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Key Messages: - A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of Deep South Texas through 7 PM this evening due to heat indices up to 115 degrees. - There are low rain chances (20% or less) across the Rio Grande Plains late this evening. - Triple-digit temperatures and heat index values will be an issue once again tomorrow afternoon. Mid/upper level ridging will continue to influence mostly rain- free conditions through the short term period across Deep South Texas, but there will be a low potential (20% or less) for an isolated shower or decaying thunderstorm as convection develops off of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico late this afternoon and evening. There is a greater chance that any convection that does develop will weaken and dissipate by the time it reaches the Rio Grande River. If anything, cloud cover associated with any activity will provide some relief from the oppressive heat late this evening for portions of the Mid/Upper RGV and Rio Grande Plains. Low stratus clouds will develop once again, aided by persistent low level southerly to southeasterly flow. This will maintain mild and humid conditions across the region, with low temperatures only falling into the upper 70s across the Northern Ranchlands to low 80s across the Rio Grande Valley. Thursday will once again feature well above normal temperatures, with most areas along and west of I-69 observing a high temperature of at least 100 degrees. In combination with the presence of higher dew points, heat index values will range from 100 to 115 degrees during the afternoon hours. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for most of Deep South Texas once again. If spending an extended period of time outdoors, ensure you are staying hydrated, taking frequent breaks in the shade or indoors, and wearing light-colored, loose-fitting clothing to prevent any heat-related illnesses. Another mild and humid night with lows mostly in the upper 70s across the Northern Ranchlands and low 80s in the Rio Grande Valley is expected Thursday night. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Dangerous heat will continue to be the main story in the extended forecast period, especially during the Memorial Day Weekend. Prolonged subsidence and southerly low level flow will maintain a warming trend through Sunday and Monday. Sunday appears to be the peak of the heat as the 850 temps peak at 28-30.5 Celsius across our CWA. A great indicator of this exceptional heat is the fact that the NAEFS 850 temperatures during the Fri-Mon timeframe were forecast to be 2-4 standard deviations above normal across our CWA. This will translate into record-breaking temperatures (or close to it), especially during the holiday weekend for portions of the CWA. Little to no relief is expected at night given the moderate gradient helping to keep overnight lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s for most of the area. The NWS HeatRisk product continues to indicate most of the CWA in the Extreme category for Fri-Mon. Meanwhile, the combination of this intense heat and surface dewpoints generally in the mid 70s and higher for most areas, especially east of I-69C will translate into heat indices 111-118 on Fri...112-120 on Sat and 114-122 on Sun and Mon. A widespread heat advisory is likely on Fri. An excessive heat warning will likely be warranted for portions of the Northern Ranchlands and Mid/Upper Valley on Sat. By Sun and Mon, most of the CWA except for Zapata and Jim Hogg counties will likely need an excessive heat warning. Zapata and Jim Hogg counties will have lower heat indices as these areas will be west of the dryline feature that will be developing each day. By Mon night, the synoptic pattern does begin to change as the broad mid/upper ridge axis anchored across Mexico begins to weaken just a bit and as a cold front approaches Central and Southeast TX. Most of the convective activity associated with this front and associated shortwave energy will remain north of the CWA. However, isolated convection will be possible across the ranchlands before weakening. Slightly better rain chances will occur on Tue and Wed as the wind flow becomes backed which will help to weaken the cap and draw in deeper moisture. Also, there will be several shortwaves that will affect the CWA and enhance rain chances for the Tue-Wed timeframe. For now, will only go with slight chance POPs for Tue and Wed given the long timeframe involved. However would not be surprised to see these POPs increase, especially for the ranchlands, as we get closer in time to this timeframe. Given the backed winds and higher moisture, there will be a break in the very hot conditions for the Tue-Wed timeframe. Temperatures will still be above normal on Tue and Wed but not be nearly as high as during the first part of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 648 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 MVFR at KMFE and KHRL due to ceilings. SCT to BKN low clouds are in the area with ongoing strong southeast winds. Ceilings should thicken and lower to MVFR across the board later this evening. Clouds will scatter out Thursday by mid-day, yielding VFR conditions, with another day of fresh to strong southeast winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Tonight through Thursday night...An enhanced pressure gradient will result in moderate to breezy winds and moderate seas through tomorrow night along the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters. Small Craft Exercise Caution will prevail through the period, although a brief Small Craft Advisory may be necessary along the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters due to breezy winds Thursday afternoon. Friday through next Wednesday...A persistent moderate to occasionally strong pressure and thermal gradient will maintain at least widespread caution conditions through Sunday across the coastal waters. In fact, marginal small craft advisory conditions will even be possible for the Laguna Madre for Saturday and Sunday. The gradient will slowly weaken by Monday and continue that trend into Tuesday and Wednesday with the approach of the front across Central and Southeast TX. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 96 81 97 82 / 10 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 99 78 98 79 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 101 81 100 81 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 104 80 103 79 / 10 20 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 82 87 82 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 94 81 93 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ248>255-351- 353>355. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181337 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:12 AM 23.May.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 700 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Key Messages: - A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of Deep South Texas through 7 PM this evening due to heat indices up to 115 degrees. - There are low rain chances (20% or less) across the Rio Grande Plains late this evening. - Triple-digit temperatures and heat index values will be an issue once again tomorrow afternoon. Mid/upper level ridging will continue to influence mostly rain- free conditions through the short term period across Deep South Texas, but there will be a low potential (20% or less) for an isolated shower or decaying thunderstorm as convection develops off of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico late this afternoon and evening. There is a greater chance that any convection that does develop will weaken and dissipate by the time it reaches the Rio Grande River. If anything, cloud cover associated with any activity will provide some relief from the oppressive heat late this evening for portions of the Mid/Upper RGV and Rio Grande Plains. Low stratus clouds will develop once again, aided by persistent low level southerly to southeasterly flow. This will maintain mild and humid conditions across the region, with low temperatures only falling into the upper 70s across the Northern Ranchlands to low 80s across the Rio Grande Valley. Thursday will once again feature well above normal temperatures, with most areas along and west of I-69 observing a high temperature of at least 100 degrees. In combination with the presence of higher dew points, heat index values will range from 100 to 115 degrees during the afternoon hours. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for most of Deep South Texas once again. If spending an extended period of time outdoors, ensure you are staying hydrated, taking frequent breaks in the shade or indoors, and wearing light-colored, loose-fitting clothing to prevent any heat-related illnesses. Another mild and humid night with lows mostly in the upper 70s across the Northern Ranchlands and low 80s in the Rio Grande Valley is expected Thursday night. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Dangerous heat will continue to be the main story in the extended forecast period, especially during the Memorial Day Weekend. Prolonged subsidence and southerly low level flow will maintain a warming trend through Sunday and Monday. Sunday appears to be the peak of the heat as the 850 temps peak at 28-30.5 Celsius across our CWA. A great indicator of this exceptional heat is the fact that the NAEFS 850 temperatures during the Fri-Mon timeframe were forecast to be 2-4 standard deviations above normal across our CWA. This will translate into record-breaking temperatures (or close to it), especially during the holiday weekend for portions of the CWA. Little to no relief is expected at night given the moderate gradient helping to keep overnight lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s for most of the area. The NWS HeatRisk product continues to indicate most of the CWA in the Extreme category for Fri-Mon. Meanwhile, the combination of this intense heat and surface dewpoints generally in the mid 70s and higher for most areas, especially east of I-69C will translate into heat indices 111-118 on Fri...112-120 on Sat and 114-122 on Sun and Mon. A widespread heat advisory is likely on Fri. An excessive heat warning will likely be warranted for portions of the Northern Ranchlands and Mid/Upper Valley on Sat. By Sun and Mon, most of the CWA except for Zapata and Jim Hogg counties will likely need an excessive heat warning. Zapata and Jim Hogg counties will have lower heat indices as these areas will be west of the dryline feature that will be developing each day. By Mon night, the synoptic pattern does begin to change as the broad mid/upper ridge axis anchored across Mexico begins to weaken just a bit and as a cold front approaches Central and Southeast TX. Most of the convective activity associated with this front and associated shortwave energy will remain north of the CWA. However, isolated convection will be possible across the ranchlands before weakening. Slightly better rain chances will occur on Tue and Wed as the wind flow becomes backed which will help to weaken the cap and draw in deeper moisture. Also, there will be several shortwaves that will affect the CWA and enhance rain chances for the Tue-Wed timeframe. For now, will only go with slight chance POPs for Tue and Wed given the long timeframe involved. However would not be surprised to see these POPs increase, especially for the ranchlands, as we get closer in time to this timeframe. Given the backed winds and higher moisture, there will be a break in the very hot conditions for the Tue-Wed timeframe. Temperatures will still be above normal on Tue and Wed but not be nearly as high as during the first part of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 648 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 MVFR at KMFE and KHRL due to ceilings. SCT to BKN low clouds are in the area with ongoing strong southeast winds. Ceilings should thicken and lower to MVFR across the board later this evening. Clouds will scatter out Thursday by mid-day, yielding VFR conditions, with another day of fresh to strong southeast winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Tonight through Thursday night...An enhanced pressure gradient will result in moderate to breezy winds and moderate seas through tomorrow night along the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters. Small Craft Exercise Caution will prevail through the period, although a brief Small Craft Advisory may be necessary along the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters due to breezy winds Thursday afternoon. Friday through next Wednesday...A persistent moderate to occasionally strong pressure and thermal gradient will maintain at least widespread caution conditions through Sunday across the coastal waters. In fact, marginal small craft advisory conditions will even be possible for the Laguna Madre for Saturday and Sunday. The gradient will slowly weaken by Monday and continue that trend into Tuesday and Wednesday with the approach of the front across Central and Southeast TX. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 96 81 97 82 / 10 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 99 78 98 79 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 101 81 100 81 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 104 80 103 79 / 10 20 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 82 87 82 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 94 81 93 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ248>255-351- 353>355. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181336 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:12 AM 23.May.2024) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 658 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 While there has been a fair amount of activity on radar today, not much if any, has been reaching the ground. A strong persistent cap has helped to keep things quiet, but models are still indicating a chance of showers/thunderstorms later this afternoon into the even- ing hours as a weak front moves in from the north and the dry line approaches from the west. The activity is progged to hold together as it moves from Central TX into our northern CWA this evening. We are still looking at a threat of strong to severe thunderstorms if this development holds together. There have been no changes to SPC and WPC outlooks for today...with the northern third of the CWA in a Marginal to Slight Risk of severe weather (levels 1 and 2 out of 5) and a mostly Marginal Risk for excessive rain for our northern- most counties (Madison, Trinity, Houston). Damaging winds and hail will be the primary severe weather threats. Brief heavy rain could produce amounts from 1-3 inches in a short period, which will then cause issues in low-lying areas as well as localized street flood- ing. Some of the guidance is suggesting that these storms might be tracking as far south as Houston proper before the cap/loss of day time heating wins out. Outside of this, the forecast for SE TX will be generally warm and muggy as onshore winds persist. Highs will tomorrow will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the mid and upper 70s. 41 && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 A strong mid/upper ridge of high pressure centered over Mexico will remain a dominant force in the Texas atmosphere, keeping conditions quite hot through at least early next week. Friday is expected to be a humid day with inland afternoon temperatures around 90 degrees. Heat index values are likely to be about 10 degrees hotter than the actual temperatures. A stout cap is expected to keep PoPs low despite the presence of mid/upper disturbances and high PWATs. However, the GFS insists that there will be a more aggressive UL disturbance that will throw strong PVA and its resulting thunderstorm activity into our northern counties. For now, we have opted for slight (~20%) PoPs across our Brazos Valley counties for Friday evening/night. Over the weekend, a mid/upper trough over W CONUS will induce LL cyclogenesis over the central plains. This will veer the low to mid level (850-700mb) flow to the SW, enhancing WAA aloft. These hotter temperatures will "mix" to the surface, allowing for daytime highs to become progressively hotter this weekend into Monday. By Sunday and Monday, most inland areas could be in the mid 90s. Our temperature grids even show a few pockets of upper 90s. Considering the continued high humidity, current projected heat index values would warrant Heat Advisories for the Sunday- Monday time frame. Experimental HeatRisk guidance suggests the heat poses a Major (level 3 of 4) to Extreme (level 4 of 4) risk to health. If you plan to spend time outdoors during the holiday weekend, please practice heat safety such as drinking plentiful water, wearing light colored clothing, and taking breaks (preferably indoors in the AC) if working/playing outside. It is important to remember that drinking alcohol can result in dehydration. So be careful at those outdoor Memorial Day festivities! Also, NEVER forget to LOOK before you LOCK your vehicle. NEVER leave children and pets in a hot car. There will also be an enhanced rip current risk at the beaches. Some relief in the heat may arrive after Memorial Day due to an approaching cold front. The front may bring showers and thunderstorms to the area late Monday and Tuesday. For now, we only depict slight PoPs associated with the front. The early outlook for the post-front environment on Tuesday-Wednesday features lower dew points (in the 60s instead of 70s) and high temperatures in the low 90s. Self && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening through around midnight near/around KCLL, KUTS, and KCXO terminals. Erratic winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible with the severe storms. Conditions will once again drop to widespread MVFR tonight through late Thursday morning. A few spots of IFR conditions will be possible north of the IAH terminal. VFR with SCT MVFR conditions are expected by Thursday afternoon. SSE winds around 10 to 15 knots will prevail through the period, outside of any storms. JM && .MARINE... Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Generally moderate southeasterly winds and 3-5 foot seas are expected through the weekend. However, occasionally higher winds and seas are likely. Therefore, caution flags have been issued through Thursday and may need to be extended. We cannot rule out reaching Small Craft Advisory criteria at times. Winds are seas are projected to decrease somewhat by early next week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity and Brazos rivers. The following river points are either currently in flood stage (as of ~3AM Wednesday morning): MAJOR// ------- - Trinity River (Liberty): Major MODERATE// ---------- - Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate MINOR// ------- - Trinity River (Goodrich): Minor - Brazos River (Richmond): Minor - Brazos River (Rosharon): Minor - Brazos River (Sugar Land): Minor Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND, DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flooding continues. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 74 91 76 93 / 50 10 10 0 Houston (IAH) 76 92 77 93 / 20 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 78 85 78 85 / 10 10 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Thursday evening for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ |
| #1181335 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:03 AM 23.May.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 749 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure shifts offshore today. A broad frontal zone then moves slowly through the Eastern U.S Thursday through the weekend. A stronger cold front moves through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 1900 Wednesday...No major changes to the forecast in the near term. Seabreeze has just about pushed through the entire FA approaching I95. Have tried to hone in on fog potential in the early morning hours THU. Best chance for impactful fog over the HWY17 corridor with patchy shallow fog possible elsewhere across the area. Previous Disco... - Reduced risk of dense fog tonight The afternoon seabreeze has developed and is slowly shifting inland. Thus far, the cumulus field has remained fairly flat along the advancing seabreeze, likely due to warming temps aloft and mid/upper level ridging in place. In light of this, I expect the seabreeze to remain quiet through the evening hours. In the wake of the seabreeze passage, light winds and a moist boundary layer may support some patchy, shallow fog. However, the risk of dense fog appears much lower tonight. Case in point, probabilistic guidance only gives a 20-40% chance for the area at large. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 115 PM Wednesday... - Building heat on Thursday - Strong thunderstorms possible (10-30% chance) across the coastal plain Thursday afternoon and evening Mid/upper level ridging will shift offshore on Thursday as an upper level trough approaches from the west. This will open up the Gulf of Mexico, allowing a plume of 1.50" PWATs to get pulled north through the Southeast US on the ensuing southerly LLJ. Low-mid level moistening along this frontal boundary, plus modest lift from a glancing shortwave, should support bands of convection developing from the southern Appalachians northeast through the Mid-Atlantic Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. As the clusters of storms approach the coast, they will be encountering the diurnally- stabilizing airmass, and I expect this will lead to a weakening trend with time with any storms that approach coastal ENC. That said, if thunderstorms manage to develop early enough out to our west, there may be a window of opportunity for thunderstorms to reach the far inland coastal plain counties, mainly with a gusty/damaging wind threat. Given decent synoptic and model support for a low-end severe risk, I`ll add a mention in the HWO with this forecast update, which will line up closely with where SPC has outlooked a "Marginal" risk of severe weather. Additionally, heating of the moistening boundary layer may lead to sufficient weakening of the cap for a few storms to develop along the seabreeze. Later Thursday evening into Thursday night, showers may make it to the coast, but the risk of thunderstorms is expected to be on the decrease with time. Warming low-level thicknesses plus strong heating and a continued southerly flow should allow inland areas to reach the upper 80s to low 90s, with heat indices as high as 95. Along the coast, upper 70s to mid 80s will be common. Widespread clouds and a modest southerly wind will support a very mild night Thursday, with lows only falling to near 70. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 PM Wednesday...An incoming upper level trough will support unsettled weather through the period with a series of shortwaves forecast to move across the area. This will bring multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Friday - Tuesday...With high pressure offshore and broad troughing across the eastern US, southwesterly flow will have ENC within a warm and humid airmass. Multiple shortwaves passing over the area will support a chance of showers (25-45%) and thunderstorms each day. Ensemble guidance shows multiple chances over the coming days for sufficient CAPE and shear, which could generate some strong to severe storms, especially in the afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 00Z Friday/... As of 1920 Wednesday...Seabreeze has cleared inland TAF sites with VFR flight cats prevailing through the rest of this evening. Thinking remains mostly the same for fog potential overnight tonight; potential exists but confidence is lower than previous nights. Moist low- levels plus light winds tonight may support a period of sub-VFR VIS. Best chance coastal terminals. Have slightly walked back the TAFs for the coastal sites a little bit: changed prevailing MVFR BR lines to 6SM MIFG with a tempo group with 4sm MVFR BR. Because winds are not expected to fully decouple all night, think the fog will be very spotty in coverage and will be transient with OBS likely bouncing around a bit. VFR flight cats with strengthening SWerly flow through the day Thursday before flight conditions begin to deteriorate tomorrow evening when showers/tstorms become possible. LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 3 PM Wednesday...Pred VFR conditions are expected through most of Thursday. The weather will become more unsettled on Friday and continue through the weekend with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible. Periods of sub-VFR visibilities and ceilings are expected. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Thursday night/... As of 115 PM Wednesday... - Good boating conditions through Thursday afternoon High pressure will continue to shift further away from the coast today, with a developing southerly background wind of 5-15kt. This flow will increase some late Thursday into Thursday night as a weak frontal boundary approaches from the west. At this time, though, winds are expected to remain below 25kt. Seas will hold in the 2-3 ft range through Thursday morning, then slowly build to 3-4 ft late Thursday into Thursday night. Thursday evening, a weakening cluster of showers and thunderstorms may impact area waters. A few gusts of 25kt+ may occur with these showers/storms. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...SW winds of 10-15 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt, as well as 2-3 ft seas and multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms, will stick around through the period. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX |
| #1181334 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:00 AM 23.May.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 752 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will retreat offshore tonight and Thursday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will grow as a series of upper level disturbances move across the region late Thursday through Saturday while a frontal boundary stalls just north of the area. Inland temperatures will rise into the 90s early next week, then should cool behind a CFP Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure had been nosing in from the NE has retreated and most of the area now seeing light S to SE winds. This will remain the case for the entire near term meaning quiet weather tonight with seasonable temperatures. In the mid levels will will transition from ridging to flatter flow, the latter always more susceptible to housing shortwaves. The vorts depicted in guidance are quite weak and for the most part stay to our north. Will continue to maintain POPs capped at 30 over nrn zones but could definitely see how we get one last rain-free day Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A positively tilted mid and upper ridge axis will move off the Carolina coast Thursday evening, allowing colder air at 500 and 700 mb to flood in from the west across the Carolinas. The strongly capped airmass we`ve enjoyed for the past couple of days will be replaced by moderate convective instability, no mid level cap, and precipitable water values up to 1.8 inches. Although scattered showers or thunderstorms may dot the area Thursday night into Friday morning, we`ll be watching for the arrival of what could be a well-defined upper disturbance later on Friday. This potential disturbance appears to be convectively generated on the GFS/Canadian/ECMWF Thursday afternoon across NE Texas and moves quickly eastward across the Mid South. Assuming this actually occurs as expected, higher shower and t-storm chances should develop here Friday afternoon into the evening hours. SPC does not have a Day 3 risk area outlined, however strengthened mid level flow and steep lapse rates could generate a wind threat. Saturday`s forecast gets a little murky given the potential for subsidence and mesoscale capping behind any Friday night storms lingering offshore, but I`m still going to keep scattered mainly afternoon showers and t-storms in the forecast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Our 500 mb heights should rise by 40 meters between Saturday evening and Sunday evening as an upper level ridge across the Gulf of Mexico expands northeastward. While it might seem like an easy "win" to remove all convection from the forecast with renewed capping aloft, there`s still the westerly upper level flow to contend with which can easily bring fast-moving MCSs across the Carolinas given rather subtle disturbances aloft. For this reason I won`t stray too far from blended MOS PoPs through the extended period. As the ridging aloft builds Sunday and Monday it appears inland high temperatures may soar to 91-94 degrees, near the warmest of the year so far and similar to what we experienced back on May 8th. For Tuesday and Wednesday, all models want to carve out a trough across the Great Lakes extending southward to the southern Appalachians. There are indications 500 mb heights could fall by 40-60 meters by Wednesday with decreases in temperatures expected behind a Tuesday night cold front. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR for the most part, the only exception will be the chance for MVFR fog and/or MVFR/IFR low stratus around or below 1k ft, during the pre-dawn Thu hrs up thru 12Z Thu. SSW-SW winds 10-20 kt just off the deck will help keep the sfc winds at or below 5 kt after the demise of the sea breeze. This will help keep sfc rad fog limited but the elevated moisture may be enough for low stratus around 1k ft or lower. Extended Outlook...Mostly VFR outside morning low clouds/fog through Fri morning followed by periodic showers/storms starting late Thu night with the threat last through Mon as a cold front stalls in the vicinity. && .MARINE... Through Thursday...The continued retreat of higher pressures will continue to lead to minor veering of the winds from SE to S while speeds remain capped at 10kt. With only a tiny swell component that leaves mainly wind waves, capped at 2 ft through the period. Thursday night through Monday...High pressure will retreat farther offshore late this week as a weak cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Light southwest winds are expected with seas only 2-3 feet. As the atmosphere becomes more unstable getting out from beneath the warm ridging aloft, isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop as early as Thursday night with better chances developing Friday night. It appears the front won`t make it down to the coastline, instead stalling across interior North and South Carolina Saturday. Thunderstorm outflow could temporarily shift winds across the coastal waters northwesterly Saturday night, but winds should come back around to the south and southwest again on Sunday. Southwest winds should increase to 15-20 kt Monday as a strong (for the season) area of low pressure moves across the Great Lakes. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
