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| #1243494 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:30 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1022 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1016 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 -Heat continues to be a concern on Monday with a Moderate (level 2 out of 4) to Major (level 3 out of 4 )Heat risk. -Rain chances increase on Monday and Tuesday. -The Weather Prediction Center continues to highlight portions of Starr, Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, and Kenedy counties in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall on Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1016 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Heat continues to be the a concern for the start of the forecast period. Mid-level ridging and moisture advection with south- southeasterly winds will continue to bring hot temperatures rising into the upper 90s to 100s and heat indices between 105 to 110 degrees across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Monday. This will maintain a moderate (level 2 out of 4) to Major (level 3 out of 4) Heat risk for the region. While heat indices will remain below Heat Advisory criteria, Special Weather Statements will be needed. With that said, a cold front begins to push southward into the CWA on Monday. This will bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms on Monday (40-50%). Rainfall and cloud cover associated with the cold front could limit afternoon high temperatures, heat indices, and heat risk. WPC has portions of the Northern Ranchlands in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall for Monday into Monday night. The NBM 90th percentile is at around 1 to 1.5 inches and mean around 0.5 inch of rainfall for the marginal area, so confidence on the excessive rainfall is somewhat low. With the said, forecasted PWATs will be around 1.75 inches, which is above normal so any showers or thunderstorms that do develop will be capable of producing heavy rainfall that could lead to ponding of water, especially on roadways and low lying areas. The aforementioned cold front will move through the CWA Monday night, but lift back north across Deep South Texas on Tuesday. This will keep rain chances (50-70%) in the forecast for Tuesday. Temperatures cool slightly, but will remain near to just above seasonal norms through Thursday. Rain chances taper off Tuesday night and the front finally pushes south of the region. POPs will generally remain around 15% or less for Wednesday through Friday. As we head into next weekend, we are still watching for the potential of another front pushing through or stalling across Deep South Texas that will increase rain chances and lower temperatures slightly for the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 552 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. South to southeasterly winds will turn more easterly around midday Monday as a front begins to push into Deep South Texas. As we head into Monday afternoon, chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase across the aerodromes with PROB30s in place. Any rain or thunderstorm that moves over the airports could reduce visibilities briefly to MVFR/IFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 1016 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Generally favorable conditions with mostly light to moderate southerly to southeasterly winds and seas of 1 to 2 feet. A frontal boundary will move through the waters off the lower Texas coast on Monday increasing rain and thunderstorm chances Monday and Tuesday (50-70%). This could lead to locally elevated winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 79 95 78 94 / 10 40 40 60 HARLINGEN 75 96 74 95 / 0 50 40 60 MCALLEN 79 101 79 97 / 0 40 50 60 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 101 76 96 / 0 30 60 50 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 88 80 88 / 10 40 40 50 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 92 77 91 / 10 40 40 60 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243493 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1046 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 The wet weather pattern continues for yet another evening. A very early season mid latitude trough is balling up over the eastern United States. This has contributed to a surface trough draping southwestward across the Florida Peninsula and resulting light westerly breezes across the Keys. This has set up a very moist atmosphere spanning our area. Models suggest that despite the trough just to our north, the lower level flow in our area might have been less confluent than last night. This along with less support aloft may have helped to suppress overall convective intensity and coverage. With that said, we still saw scattered to numerous activity. The synoptic makeup of our weather is not expected to change overnight. The mid latitude trough will continue to congeal over the eastern United States and surface to lower level troughing will remain across Florida. Consequently, a broad zone of wet air, and more often than not, confluent flow will linger across and north of our area. Expect further rounds of showers and thunderstorms overnight. During quiescent periods, winds will be light out of the west. Overnight temperatures will range a bit due to rain effects, but be broadly in the lower 80s. Dew points will meander in the mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Surface troughing draping across Florida is responsible for mainly light westerly breezes on Keys waters this evening. This trough, along with copious moisture has been conducive to scattered to numerous showers across the broader area. These showers and thunderstorms have repeatedly perturbed surface flow with 20 to 30 knot wind gusts. No significant change is expected and the overall wet pattern will continue. The trough to our north will maintain light mostly westerly breezes overnight. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A wet weather pattern persists across the area. As a result, while VFR conditions will prevail, bouts of sub VFR conditions are expected overnight. Away from convection, surface winds will be generally light out of the west to northwest. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243492 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:06 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 958 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure from the north will continue to maintain control through Tuesday, before weak low pressure likely impacts the area by the middle of next week. A weak cold front could then impact the area late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Latest surface analysis shows high pressure well to the north and northeast of the area, while the old frontal boundary is several hundred miles south of the area. The high pressure has allowed for a pseudo wedge pattern to take hold, with steady northeasterly flow keeping cooler temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon. Much of the same is expected through tonight and tomorrow. Pressure gradient remains in place between the high to the north, and then low pressure along the front to the south. Gusts decrease just a touch tonight, while cooler, drier air sinks into the area. Lows tonight range from the upper 50s inland to the lower 60s at the coast. Weak wedge pattern continues for Labor Day Monday. Some cirrus expected throughout the day, coupled with some scattered diurnal cumulus in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Cutoff upper low over NY/PA will open and lift while another, deeper low approaches the Great Lakes from the NW. The energy that kicks out the lead low will maintain cyclonic curvature aloft locally but the column appears too dry for any meaningful rain chances despite the gentle lift. The continued presence of surface high pressure to our north will keep temperatures a few degrees below normal by both day and night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Gradient eases Wednesday as the high to our north erodes in strength. A healthy shortwave rounding the base of the trough tries to draw some frontal moisture north towards the area but it gets absorbed into the flow almost completely. As the Great Lakes system spins with little movement there may be just enough energy rotating around it to draw a little moisture this far north. The largely failed attempt to pull moisture north into the area will continue until a cold front sweeps through on Saturday. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the period. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR with very brief restrictions possible due to a passing SHRA close to the coast. && .MARINE... Through Monday...Small Craft Advisory in place until midnight EDT Tuesday (i.e., Monday night into Tuesday morning). Stiff northeasterly wind continues through the entire period, with gusts up to 27 kts. Seas remain at 3-4 ft at the coast, with 5-6 ft waves found 20 nm offshore. Monday Night through Friday...Gradient between large high to our north and a front stalled to the south will be easing Monday night. Headlines still expected to be lowered but the abating trend will be slow, it will be Tuesday night before winds and seas drop below criteria more decidedly. The weakening high moves off the New England coast late Wed into Thu veering the winds, eventually attaining a more climatologically common southern component. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for Pender and New Hanover County Beaches, ie. Surf City to Fort Fisher. For Monday, waves will become more easterly in direction with slightly increased periods to 6 to 8 seconds. This will result in a wave thats becoming more perpendicular to those east to southeast facing beaches thereby increasing the threat for more potent rip currents. The strong north to south longshore current is also expected along those E-SE facing beaches which may limit the number of rip currents occurrences. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1243491 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:57 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 944 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Continued dry and very pleasant conditions are expected with below average temperatures through the middle of the week. A cold front approaches late week with slightly warmer temperatures and a chance for showers. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 930 PM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - Dry weather and below average temperatures continue tonight with lows mainly in the 50s, except near the immediate coast where lows will range through the 60s with onshore flow. Evening WX analysis shows high pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes building E-SE toward the area, with a deep trough aloft over the eastern CONUS. Cloud cover has generally diminished since sunset, but a small area with SCT-BKN cu lingers over interior SE VA. Winds remain elevated with gusts to ~20 mph near the immediate coast in SE VA and NE NC, but rapidly diminish just a short distance inland. Temperatures have dropped off into the upper 50s to lower 60s across much of the region, with locally much warmer values at the immediate coast where the winds remain elevated off the water. Winds should mostly be light/calm inland overnight, with a NE wind of 10-15 mph continuing near the immediate coast. Widespread lows from 50-55F are expected inland, with mid 60s in far SE VA/NE NC. Similar to Sunday morning, a few spots will likely drop into the upper 40s. These values, while as much as 15 degrees cooler than normal for some inland areas, are still not expected to set any record lows at our long-term climate sites. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - The streak of abnormally cool and dry August weather continues Monday and Tuesday, with slightly warmer temperatures expected on Wednesday. The large surface high to our north remains in control on Mon/Tue, which will lead to continued NE flow along with dry/pleasant wx with mainly mid-upper 70s as highs. Remaining breezy near the coast on Monday as coastal low pressure deepens offshore. Still think the low remains far enough offshore to keep rain chances out of the area but there could be a stray shower or two near the northern OBX Monday afternoon. Mostly sunny for most of the area with more clouds expected SE/closer to the coastal trough/low. Temperatures will be similar on Tuesday with some afternoon cumulus clouds. Widespread 50s are expected inland on both Mon/Tue night, with lower-mid 60s near the coast. The high shifts offshore on Wednesday, allowing the low-level flow to become more southeasterly. At the same time, a weak shortwave approaches from the west with stronger low pressure diving SE from central Canada to the NW Great Lakes. Modest moisture return is expected with aftn dew points rising to ~60F. However, it will very likely remain dry with perhaps a bit more in the way of cloud cover. Forecast highs Wed are a few degrees higher than on Mon/Tue. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Chance for showers and maybe a few storms returns Thursday into Friday as a front approaches the region from the west. - Warmer temperatures are expected from Friday through Saturday with highs in the mid to locally upper 80s possible. The strong low over the Great Lakes drags a cold front toward the area on Thursday. This feature could help trigger showers/tstms during the aftn/evening (highest chances NW with PoPs of 20% or less SE) as the low level flow increases out of the south. Noticeably warmer on Thu with highs in the low to mid 80s with a modest increase in humidity as dew points creep back into the low and mid 60s. Chance for showers continues into Thursday night and Friday, especially across the northern half of the area. There won`t be much in the way of CAA with the front on Thu/Thu night. In fact, forecast highs are a few degrees warmer (lower-upper 80s) on Fri/Sat with 60s dew pts. Still a low confidence forecast from Friday into the weekend as the 12z GFS continues to show higher precip chances than the ECMWF (mainly on Sat/Sat night). The ECMWF has no more than isolated showers in the forecast. Regardless, not really expecting a widespread soaking rain, as GEFS/EPS ensemble guidance has areal avg amounts of less than 0.25" across the area from Friday-Sunday. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 800 PM EDT Sunday... Mainly VFR conditions prevail through the 00z/01 TAF period. A small area with SCT-BKN cumulus lingers across interior SE VA but expect this to dissipate over the next few hrs, with a mainly clear sky overnight. NE winds remain gusty (to ~20 kt) near the coast this evening, but are light/variable inland. On Monday, onshore flow may lead to a bit more cumulus development compared to Sunday, especially closer to the coast. A period of BKN clouds is most likely at ECG, and possible at ORF/PHF. Expect this would still primarily be VFR, but there could be a brief period with MVFR CIGs ~2500 ft. NE winds will continue to be elevated, gusting to 20-25kt near the coast, and more in the 10 kt range with gusts to ~15 kt farther inland. Outlook: VFR conditions persist, with dry weather through at least midweek. Winds diminish Mon night-Tue. && .MARINE... As of 307 PM EDT Sunday... - A prolonged period of elevated onshore flow is expected through Monday. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for a portions of the coastal waters and Chesapeake Bay this afternoon into Monday night. With the low developing off the SE coast and the high building into our north, the gradient across the coastal waters has tightened this afternoon. This has resulted in rapidly building seas off the NC coast, with observed sea heights nearing 6 ft already this afternoon. Sea heights north of Cape Henry range between 2-4 ft, and waves are between 1-3 ft. Marine-based sites are measuring winds of 10-20 kts, with the highest winds in the southern waters. High pressure will remain in place through early next week. The area of low pressure off the Southeast coast will start to lift northeastward over the next day or so. The gradient between the high to our north and low to our south will remain tightened, leading to a period increased onshore flow, especially across our southern waters, through early next week. Wind speeds will average 10 to 20 knots during this time (highest S), but a period of 15 to 20 knot to near 20 kts winds is likely today through Monday south of Cape Henry. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the southern coastal waters and will expand to the remainder of the coastal waters through early tomorrow morning. Decided to include the northern Bay zones in the SCA tomorrow morning, though this may be a more marginal SCA than the southern Bay. By tomorrow evening, the coastal waters will be the only coastal zones in the SCA due to lingering seas. Winds will relax a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday with mainly sub-SCA winds in the forecast late next week. The persistent onshore flow will result in building seas through early next week, with 4 to 6 feet seas forecast starting today. Will need to keep an eye on especially the southern waters, as they may continue to overperform in terms of sea heights. Adjustments will be made to the wave height forecast as necessary. Seas will remain elevated through Tuesday before gradually starting to subside below SCA criteria. The rip current risk will be high for the southern beaches tomorrow, with a moderate rip risk for the northern beaches. The high rip risk will expand to northern beaches by Tuesday. The high rip risk will remain through Wednesday due to lingering seas and continued shore normal swells, though it will be more marginal than Tuesday as winds and seas will both be subsiding. && .CLIMATE... August 2025 will make the top 10 list for the coolest Augusts on record at Richmond, Salisbury, and Elizabeth City. Average Monthly Temperature and rankings are listed below: - RIC: 73.8F (-3.7) 7th coolest on record, coolest since 1992. - SBY: 71.5F (-4.3) 3rd coolest on record, coolest since 2008. - ECG: 75.4F (-3.0) 3rd coolest on record, coolest since 1996. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to noon EDT Monday for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ632-633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ634-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ652-654. && $$ |
| #1243490 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:36 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 923 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 302 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 - Persistent troughing over the eastern U.S. will periodically enhance shower and storm coverage through mid week. - A low risk of excessive rainfall exists each day, particularly in areas that see repeated rounds of showers and storms. - Developing onshore flow will lead to a moderate risk for rip currents at area beaches; surf conditions are expected to deteriorate further on Labor Day, especially from Cape Canaveral northward. && .UPDATE... Issued at 857 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Recent CAM guidance (HRRR/NAM/ARW) suggests a band of heavy rainfall developing along the northern flank of the center of the weak low pressure currently over the Atlantic. KMLB WSR-88D scans place this feature over the local Atlantic waters north of Cape Canaveral. Based on the current trajectory, it appears reasonable that this low will move onshore into the local area overnight. What remains in question is whether the band of showers and storms will be as robust as the HRRR suggests, as that would lead to a locally heavy rainfall threat for coastal areas (and possibly as far inland as Sanford/Deltona) north of the Cape, and where it sets up overnight. While the low-level flow is forecast to be onshore (NE/NNE), it is light compared to the W mean flow. This leads to a Corfidi vector from the W of at least 20 kts. Thus, the inland propagation of heavy rainfall may be limited, though the coast will likely remain at risk. Also, while there has been reasonable run to run consistency in the HRRR over the last couple of runs, this feature was not present in earlier forecasts this afternoon. However, bands of showers have already begun to develop over the Atlantic waters over the last hour or so. It`s unclear whether this is the consolidated band beginning to develop. All of this to say, low confidence in the forecast overnight. Although, there does appear to be a risk of locally heavy rainfall along the coast north of the Cape, possibly extending as far inland as near Deltona. WPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for heavy rainfall for much of the forecast area overnight. Rainfall accumulations of 1-3", with locally higher amounts, are possible. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Today-Tonight... Upper level trough centered across the eastern US, and extending over the Florida peninsula, remains in place. This will maintain a general westerly flow aloft across the local area. At the surface, a nearly stationary front stretches across the northern Gulf Coast into the western Atlantic, with deep moisture pooling near to south of the boundary (PW values around 1.9-2.1" across the Florida peninsula). Shortwave energy aloft is forecast to induce a weak low pressure over the Atlantic. This will result in north/northeast flow to develop on the backside of the low, which will help push the stalled front a bit further southward. Locally, the westward winds aloft will continue to favor the east coast of Florida for diurnally-driven convection this afternoon and evening. Much like yesterday, due to high clouds streaming overhead, some uncertainty in the evolution of convection remains. However, higher than normal rain chances are once again forecast this afternoon and evening as deep moisture and westerly flow enhance the summertime convective pattern over ECFL. Activity across the west coast of Florida earlier this morning moved eastward into ECFL this afternoon and will continue to push eastward off the coast through mid afternoon. Additional showers and storms will be possible into late afternoon as boundary interactions occur. As flow turns north to northeast later this afternoon across the northern areas, scattered showers and storms should develop separately from the other convection. Have maintained 50-60 percent chance for showers and storms across the north, increasing to 70 percent across southern areas this afternoon into early evening. As flow becomes onshore this evening and overnight, onshore-moving showers and isolated storms will be possible through the overnight hours. Average to slightly below normal temperatures are forecast today due to the high clouds and higher rain chances. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Muggy conditions overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Monday... (Modified Previous Discussion) The surface boundary will have likely shifted a bit further southward over the area, closer to Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. This should induce onshore flow across most of the forecast area despite continued westerly flow aloft courtesy of the persistent eastern U.S. trough. Above normal rain chances are maintained, with morning coastal showers and storms spreading inland through the day. Of note, beach conditions are expected to become increasingly poor on the holiday given the increasing onshore flow, particularly north of Cape Canaveral. A building swell will likely induce a high risk for rip currents in these areas. Temperatures will be average to slightly below normal for this time of year as high clouds and higher rain chances continue. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 80s across the north, and upper 80s to low 90s across the south. Tuesday-Saturday... (Previous Discussion) Both deterministic and ensemble guidance remain in good agreement through the end of the week, with an unusually strong signal for a reinforcing trough over the eastern CONUS. In fact, ECMWF and NAEFS ensembles show standardized height anomalies of -3 to -4 sigma centered over the midwest Thursday and Friday. Weak perturbations embedded within the base of the trough will translate across the Gulf from time to time through at least mid week, continuing the trend of unsettled conditions. While convective chances remain highest in the afternoon and evening, precip cannot be ruled out during the overnight given onshore flow and an active pattern aloft. Late in the week, as the trough axis shifts over the eastern seaboard, models hint at some modest drying aloft across our northern zones. While any hints of a cool down are likely to remain to our north (its still too early to talk cold fronts), a sharp north-to-south precip gradient is likely to occur. && .MARINE... Issued at 748 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Tonight... Poor boating conditions north of Port Canaveral tonight, due to winds 15-20 kts and seas up to 6 ft well offshore, as a low pressure system meanders near the local waters. Small craft should exercise caution there. South of the Cape, winds are forecast to remain near 10-15 kts, with seas 2-5ft. High coverage of showers and storms will continue through the overnight hours across the local waters. Monday-Thursday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Unsettled conditions continue as deep moisture and a stationary boundary remain parked over the local waters - leading to above normal chances of showers and thunderstorms. Deteriorating marine conditions are forecast given strengthening northeast winds, up to 15-20 knots north of Cape Canaveral. Seas building to 3 - 5 feet (up to 6 feet offshore Volusia)on Monday. Conditions will start to slowly improve into mid week as the surface boundary lifts back to the north and our local gradient weakens. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 748 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Low confidence in the forecast through the TAF period due to a weak low pressure system that has developed in the western Atlantic along the nearly stalled boundary draped over the local area. Models have struggled to resolve timing and placement of showers and storms across the area due to this system and the chaotic boundary interactions. Thus, have included VCSH/VCTS at all TAF sites through the period, with TEMPOs through 1Z for the ongoing convection along the coast from MLB southward. It is likely that amendments will be needed as showers and storms develop, producing VIS/CIG reductions. However, nailing down timing is difficult, as models change from run to run with limited consistency. A few recent CAM runs show persistent bands of showers and storms may develop overnight along the coast from near MLB northward, though this lacks consistency from run to run. Should this occur, updates would be needed to the current TAF for at least MLB/TIX/DAB. In addition to showers and storms, periods of MVFR CIGs around 025-030 may occur overnight. For now, have included SCT030 through the overnight and early morning hours. North to north-northeast winds look to prevail from MLB northward overnight and into Monday. Gusty winds will be possible, especially at DAB, tomorrow afternoon. Wind gusts up to 20-25 kts are forecast. Along the Treasure Coast, the position of the low is expected to produce offshore flow overnight, becoming onshore Monday afternoon. Winds will remain lighter there, closer to 10 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 85 74 86 / 60 70 40 60 MCO 75 87 74 88 / 40 70 20 70 MLB 75 87 76 88 / 50 70 40 70 VRB 73 88 74 89 / 40 70 40 70 LEE 74 86 74 88 / 30 60 20 60 SFB 75 86 74 87 / 50 70 20 60 ORL 75 86 74 88 / 40 60 20 60 FPR 71 89 73 89 / 40 70 40 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1243489 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:33 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 825 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 825 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue this evening as the weakening cool front moves south into the area. Behind this boundary northeast winds will setup and with plenty of low level moisture expect to see some low clouds develop from around the Tampa Bay area and I-4 corridor northward overnight. This boundary will stall across south Florida Monday with some drier air moving into the area, especially north of the I-4 corridor. Thus the highest rain chances will be across the southern interior and southwest Florida during the afternoon and evening. Overall the current forecast looks on track with no major changes needed. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 825 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue this evening as the weakening cool front moves south into the area. Northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph will setup overnight behind this boundary and expect to see some MVFR ceilings develop around the Tampa Bay TAF sites and LAL late tonight into Monday morning. Otherwise, more scattered to numerous convection will develop during Monday. MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible in the showers and thunderstorms, along with gusty erratic winds. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Currently we are seeing most of the shower activity shifting south of I-4 and thats where most of activity should stay for the rest of the day. Looking at our Labor day Hi-Res models are showing a weak low trying to develop in the Atlantic along the front. This will warp around some slightly drier air to our area throughout the day. So instead of above normal PW we should see it around average. This will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon and evening with coverage a little lower then today. Moisture looks to increase again for Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread showers possible through the day as the front continues to sit across the area. A strong trough will push through Florida by the later half of the week which will help to push the front south. There is some difference in timing of this trough. With the Euro keeping the high moisture and PoPs in place through Thursday and the GFS going a little faster and lower PoPs for Thursday. Either way they both agree with lower moisture and only isolated storm chances for Friday and Saturday. && .MARINE... Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Monday we will see slightly lower PoPs compared to our Sunday but we can still expect some scattered showers overnight and early tomorrow morning. However, a stall front will bring widespread shower back to the forecast for Tuesday through Thursday. Winds will generally stay below criteria however borderline Small Craft && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Summertime convection and humidity will keep fire danger at a minimum. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 76 89 76 90 / 50 60 20 60 FMY 76 91 75 91 / 30 80 40 80 GIF 75 89 74 91 / 50 70 10 60 SRQ 75 91 74 89 / 30 60 40 60 BKV 71 88 71 89 / 50 50 10 50 SPG 76 88 76 88 / 40 60 30 60 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1243488 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:30 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 827 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track northeastward along a stalled front off the NC coast today and tomorrow. Meanwhile, high pressure builds into the area from the north, and will build closer to the coast on Monday. Another area of low pressure may pass over or offshore of the area by mid-week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 8 PM Sunday...Showers now well offshore along the Gulf Stream, keeping us dry throughout the region. This will continue tonight, as have cut back of coastal PoPs with this update. Across the coastal plain, skies will be mostly clear, which will aid temps in dropping into the upper-50s. Along the Outer Banks where there will be greater cloud cover, temps will remain closer to 70. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... As of 8 PM Sunday...Labor Day will be a copy and paste of today with highs in the upper-70s to low-80s, gusty northeasterly winds, and chance PoPs along the immediate coast. High pressure will continue to build south into the area but the proximity of the offshore low and upper-level support from the deep trough overhead will allow for continued scattered light showers from Downeast Carteret to the NOBX, with best chances offshore. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 AM Sun... Key Messages - Below normal temperatures expected through midweek - Monitoring the potential for unsettled weather mid week - Forecast uncertainty beyond the next day or two remains above average. Tuesday...Troughing will remain over the Eastern Seaboard with an upper level low centered in the Northeastern CONUS moving little through Tuesday morning. This upper level low then moves off to the north and east Tue night into the Canadian Maritimes. Enhanced southern stream jet will also be noted extending from the Sargasso Sea west into the Deep South. This is notable as this will be the catalyst for surface low cyclogenesis off the Southeast Coast with this low forecast to deepen as it tracks north and east off the East Coast. At the same time, surface high pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes but will be wedging itself into the Mid- Atlantic. This is forecast to keep the aforementioned low off the coast of the Carolinas on Monday and Tuesday thus limiting any precip threat to along the coast and OBX. However, recent trends have shown this low becoming deeper and tracking further to the north than previously modeled which could result in windier conditions along the coast and OBX than previously expected. By Tue we are also monitoring a shortwave diving south across the Northern Plains along the periphery of the troughing over the Eastern CONUS. This lead shortwave will be out ahead of a much deeper trough diving S`wards from the Canadian Prairies towards the Great Lakes. At the surface this will result in a second area of cyclogenesis in the Central Plains with this surface cyclone and its associated front pushing further southwards towards the Gulf Coast States. Aforementioned shortwave has trended slower with its progression on recent model runs which results in slower surface low progression which has impacts on Wed and Thurs forecast. As a result we have lower than avg confidence in the forecast on Tue. Otherwise temps will continue to remain below avg through Tue with highs only getting into the mid 70s to low 80s. Lows get into the upper 50s inland to upper 60s across the OBX each night. Wed through next weekend...Low confidence forecast for the remainder of the extended range given large model spread in overall strength and position of upper level troughs and lower level features later next week. Lead shortwave trough is forecast to strengthen some on Wed/Thurs allowing broad troughing over the Eastern CONUS to deepen while southern stream jet strengthens further allowing for a deepening surface low in the Gulf. This deepening low is then forecast to track north and east on Wed/Thurs. Recent trends have slowed the progression of this low and trended towards a more offshore track, so impacts have lowered on Wed but have increased on Thurs as the low makes its closest point of approach. As a result, have the area precip free on Wed with SChc to Chc PoPs on Thurs to account for this recent trend. Given the lower confidence in the forecast, changes will likely be needed in the coming days. Otherwise strong upper trough dives into the Great Lakes and Northeast Wed through Fri with associated surface low and cold front pushing east towards ENC. High pressure is then forecast to build in from the west over the weekend. Again, guidance is having a hard time handling the strength and position of the upper level troughs, so confidence in the exact evolution of these features is low. But could see a low end threat for additional precip on Fri into the weekend. Temps remain below avg through Wed then increase closer to avg by the end of the week as NE`rly flow becomes more S`rly and low level thicknesses increase. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Monday afternoon/... As of 8 PM Sunday...Predominantly VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. High pressure is building in from the north, which will keep the majority of the area dry. Offshore, scattered light showers are expected to persist through tonight due to an offshore low, while low cloud cover extending further west may allow for some brief periods of sub- VFR conditions along the coast. Winds will lessen inland tonight, but strengthen again to 15-25 kts out of the northeast tomorrow afternoon. LONG TERM /Monday afternoon through Thursday/... As of 220 AM Sun...Expect primarily VFR conditions across ENC through at least Tues outside of any shower or tstm activity along the immediate coast/OBX associated with a low which will be well offshore. Potential for sub-VFR chances increases around mid week next week with the approach of a low pressure system. Breezy NE`rly winds of 10-15 kts with gusts up to 15-25 kts are possible Mon especially across the OBX as the pressure gradient tightens between low pressure well to the east and high pressure to the north and west. Winds then ease from Tue onwards. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Monday/... As of 8 PM Sunday... Key Messages... - Ongoing small craft conditions across all waters except for the Pamlico and Pungo Rivers. Conditions expected to continue through Labor Day The pressure gradient will continue tightening today between high pressure building in from the north and a low pressure system a few hundred miles south of the NC coast. Winds are currently 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt, and these conditions are expected to continue through Labor Day. Seas have responded by building to 5-7 ft tonight. 5- 7 ft seas will persist through Labor Day with a period of 6-7 seconds. LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/... As of 220 AM Sun...Ongoing SCA conditions will be noted across all waters outside of the Neuse/Bay and Pamlico/Pungo Rivers as a tight pressure gradient between a departing low off to the east and a wedge of high pressure noted to the north keeps the gradient tight allowing for widespread 15-25 kt NE`rly winds with gusts up to 20-30 kts. Lightest winds will be noted in the aforementioned rivers. Seas along our coastal waters will be around 4-7 ft as well to start the day on Monday. As we go through the day on Mon, NE`rly winds should gradually ease from west to east down to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts as low pressure pulls away from the region. This should allow the SCA`s across our inland sounds and rivers to end Mon afternoon into Mon evening. NE`rly winds will continue to ease Mon night with gusts falling below 25 kts across all waters by Tue morning. However, 4-6 ft seas across our coastal waters will persist a little longer going into Tue evening before seas fall to 3-5 ft allowing the last of the SCA`s to end across our coastal waters. Afterwards, NE`rly winds ease to 5-10 kt by Wed morning with seas falling to 2-4 ft as high pressure ridging controls the ambient weather. Winds continue to remain light but gradually veer on Thurs and into the end of the week to a SE to S and then SW`rly direction as a cold front approaches from the west. Seas generally remain at 2-4 ft from Wed onwards as well. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 245 PM Sunday... Notable low pressure south of ENC, and strong high pressure over New England, will support persistent, and strengthening, northeasterly onshore flow along the OBX over the next few days. This should allow wave heights and periods to gradually build. At the peak, guidance suggests wave periods of 8-9 seconds by Tuesday. Normally this wouldn`t be concerning, but in light of the recent impact to dunes in the wake of Hurricane Erin, there is at least a low end risk of some minor coastal issues. This would especially be the case by high tide (~3pm) on Tuesday as wave periods reach their peak. At this time, no headlines are planned, but we will continue to monitor water levels and trends in wave guidance to determine if a locally higher risk may develop. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for NCZ196-199- 203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ131-135-137- 230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-158. && $$ |
| #1243486 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:21 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 806 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 302 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 - Persistent troughing over the eastern U.S. will periodically enhance shower and storm coverage through mid week. - A low risk of excessive rainfall exists each day, particularly in areas that see repeated rounds of showers and storms. - Developing onshore flow will lead to a moderate risk for rip currents at area beaches; surf conditions are expected to deteriorate further on Labor Day, especially from Cape Canaveral northward. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Today-Tonight... Upper level trough centered across the eastern US, and extending over the Florida peninsula, remains in place. This will maintain a general westerly flow aloft across the local area. At the surface, a nearly stationary front stretches across the northern Gulf Coast into the western Atlantic, with deep moisture pooling near to south of the boundary (PW values around 1.9-2.1" across the Florida peninsula). Shortwave energy aloft is forecast to induce a weak low pressure over the Atlantic. This will result in north/northeast flow to develop on the backside of the low, which will help push the stalled front a bit further southward. Locally, the westward winds aloft will continue to favor the east coast of Florida for diurnally-driven convection this afternoon and evening. Much like yesterday, due to high clouds streaming overhead, some uncertainty in the evolution of convection remains. However, higher than normal rain chances are once again forecast this afternoon and evening as deep moisture and westerly flow enhance the summertime convective pattern over ECFL. Activity across the west coast of Florida earlier this morning moved eastward into ECFL this afternoon and will continue to push eastward off the coast through mid afternoon. Additional showers and storms will be possible into late afternoon as boundary interactions occur. As flow turns north to northeast later this afternoon across the northern areas, scattered showers and storms should develop separately from the other convection. Have maintained 50-60 percent chance for showers and storms across the north, increasing to 70 percent across southern areas this afternoon into early evening. As flow becomes onshore this evening and overnight, onshore-moving showers and isolated storms will be possible through the overnight hours. Average to slightly below normal temperatures are forecast today due to the high clouds and higher rain chances. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Muggy conditions overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Monday... (Modified Previous Discussion) The surface boundary will have likely shifted a bit further southward over the area, closer to Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. This should induce onshore flow across most of the forecast area despite continued westerly flow aloft courtesy of the persistent eastern U.S. trough. Above normal rain chances are maintained, with morning coastal showers and storms spreading inland through the day. Of note, beach conditions are expected to become increasingly poor on the holiday given the increasing onshore flow, particularly north of Cape Canaveral. A building swell will likely induce a high risk for rip currents in these areas. Temperatures will be average to slightly below normal for this time of year as high clouds and higher rain chances continue. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 80s across the north, and upper 80s to low 90s across the south. Tuesday-Saturday... (Previous Discussion) Both deterministic and ensemble guidance remain in good agreement through the end of the week, with an unusually strong signal for a reinforcing trough over the eastern CONUS. In fact, ECMWF and NAEFS ensembles show standardized height anomalies of -3 to -4 sigma centered over the midwest Thursday and Friday. Weak perturbations embedded within the base of the trough will translate across the Gulf from time to time through at least mid week, continuing the trend of unsettled conditions. While convective chances remain highest in the afternoon and evening, precip cannot be ruled out during the overnight given onshore flow and an active pattern aloft. Late in the week, as the trough axis shifts over the eastern seaboard, models hint at some modest drying aloft across our northern zones. While any hints of a cool down are likely to remain to our north (its still too early to talk cold fronts), a sharp north-to-south precip gradient is likely to occur. && .MARINE... Issued at 748 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Tonight... Poor boating conditions north of Port Canaveral tonight, due to winds 15-20 kts and seas up to 6 ft well offshore, as a low pressure system meanders near the local waters. Small craft should exercise caution there. South of the Cape, winds are forecast to remain near 10-15 kts, with seas 2-5ft. High coverage of showers and storms will continue through the overnight hours across the local waters. Monday-Thursday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Unsettled conditions continue as deep moisture and a stationary boundary remain parked over the local waters - leading to above normal chances of showers and thunderstorms. Deteriorating marine conditions are forecast given strengthening northeast winds, up to 15-20 knots north of Cape Canaveral. Seas building to 3 - 5 feet (up to 6 feet offshore Volusia)on Monday. Conditions will start to slowly improve into mid week as the surface boundary lifts back to the north and our local gradient weakens. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 748 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Low confidence in the forecast through the TAF period due to a weak low pressure system that has developed in the western Atlantic along the nearly stalled boundary draped over the local area. Models have struggled to resolve timing and placement of showers and storms across the area due to this system and the chaotic boundary interactions. Thus, have included VCSH/VCTS at all TAF sites through the period, with TEMPOs through 1Z for the ongoing convection along the coast from MLB southward. It is likely that amendments will be needed as showers and storms develop, producing VIS/CIG reductions. However, nailing down timing is difficult, as models change from run to run with limited consistency. A few recent CAM runs show persistent bands of showers and storms may develop overnight along the coast from near MLB northward, though this lacks consistency from run to run. Should this occur, updates would be needed to the current TAF for at least MLB/TIX/DAB. In addition to showers and storms, periods of MVFR CIGs around 025-030 may occur overnight. For now, have included SCT030 through the overnight and early morning hours. North to north-northeast winds look to prevail from MLB northward overnight and into Monday. Gusty winds will be possible, especially at DAB, tomorrow afternoon. Wind gusts up to 20-25 kts are forecast. Along the Treasure Coast, the position of the low is expected to produce offshore flow overnight, becoming onshore Monday afternoon. Winds will remain lighter there, closer to 10 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 85 74 86 / 60 70 40 60 MCO 75 87 74 88 / 50 70 20 70 MLB 75 87 76 88 / 40 70 40 70 VRB 73 88 74 89 / 40 70 40 70 LEE 74 86 74 88 / 40 60 20 60 SFB 75 86 74 87 / 50 70 20 60 ORL 75 86 74 88 / 50 60 20 60 FPR 71 89 73 89 / 40 70 40 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1243487 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:21 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 804 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New UPDATE, NEAR TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .UPDATE... Issued at 803 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 The main focus of the update was to raise winds across the northeast Gulf waters late this evening and overnight. Several pieces of CAMS guidance point to 20-25 knot winds, and the 12z NAM-based marine MOS guidance forecasts 10-meter winds of as much as 26 knots at C Tower late this evening. Therefore, the Small Craft Advisory was expanded to cover all marine zones except Saint Andrews Bay. Here on a summer holiday weekend, inexperienced mariners will want to stay in port until conditions start to settle down some around midday on Monday. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 803 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Little change is expected through Monday. In the grand scheme of our seasons around the tri-state region, fake fall is making a house call. If you look at normal temperatures, they do not typically even start the process of showing a sustained drop until after September 15. So think of this as either fake fall, or a reprieve from the summer weather that is still normal as we start September. A broad upper low centered over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region has a fairly large cyclonic envelope, with a broad upper trough extending down through the Carolinas and Georgia. Meanwhile at the surface, a long fetch of NE wind is funnelling down the Carolina and Georgia coastal plain and across our region, in the squeeze between high pressure near Lake Ontario and low pressure between NC and Bermuda. The NE flow will tap into the heart of a drier air mass over eastern Virginia and reinforce our drier and not-so-hot air mass on Monday. Shower chances on Monday will be confined to the SE Big Bend region, where deeper moisture and PW values of 1.5 to 1.8 inches will hang on. In contrast, anywhere north of I-10 will have drier Precipitable Water (PW) values of 1 to 1.5 inches, which is too dry to support deep, moist convection. With high temperatures on Monday running 2-5 degrees below normal and a moderate breeze all day long, it will feel uncommonly tolerable for this time of year. && .SHORT TERM & LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 128 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Mid-level troughing is forecast to remain in place over the eastern CONUS through much of the upcoming week before gradually beginning to lift northward. Generally dry offshore flow is expected to continue for the most part this week, keeping the forecast relatively warm and dry. A few showers and storms will be possible each afternoon, but offshore flow should keep them confined pretty close to the coast. A dry reinforcing front could push through the area mid to late week, but not much meaningful change is expected to be felt from it. Fairly seasonable temperatures are expected with highs in the 80s warming to the low/mid 90s by mid to late week. Low temperatures similarly start out in the mid 60s to near 70 before gently warming into the upper 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 803 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Steady and sometimes gusty northeast breezes will persist. The mid-level air mass will undergo a little more drying over the next 24 hours. So the main forecasting challenge will be occasional bouts of SCT-BKN stratocumulus sliding southwest down the Carolina coastal plain and into our region. Bases should generally be at or well above 5,000 feet. There will be too much wind to support fog on Monday morning, and a little more dry air advection should even limit morning stratus. Bottom line, VFR conditions are expected to persist through Monday, and NE winds will be gusty, especially on Monday during the mid-late morning as dissipation of the nighttime inversion allows winds aloft to mix down in gusts. && .MARINE... Issued at 803 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A surge of strong northeast breezes will quickly develop near the coast around sunset this evening, then spread offshore across the northeast Gulf during the first few hours after dark. Seas will build to 5 feet over the more distant waters. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for all the open Gulf waters. Northeast to east breezes will continue through Wednesday, as high pressure passes by to the north and a stationary front meanders over the Gulf generally extending west from Tampa Bay. Gradients will weaken later Wednesday through Friday as that frontal boundary exits off to the east. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 128 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 As we head into the start of the week, drier air moves in. However, RH values are expected to remain well above critical with MinRH around 40 to 50 percent. Northeast flow will prevail through the week with speeds around 10-15 mph for the Transport winds on Monday, then decreasing to 5-10 mph for the rest of the week. Dispersions for Monday will be high for many districts in the FL Panhandle, Big Bend, and AL Wiregrass regions. Fair to moderate afternoon dispersions can be expected afterwards into midweek. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 803 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Flooding is not expected for the next 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 69 86 66 88 / 10 10 0 10 Panama City 71 89 69 89 / 10 10 10 20 Dothan 65 86 62 87 / 0 0 0 10 Albany 65 86 63 87 / 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 67 86 64 88 / 10 10 0 10 Cross City 71 88 69 90 / 30 30 0 30 Apalachicola 72 87 71 85 / 30 20 20 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for GMZ730-755-765- 775. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 PM CDT Monday for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1243485 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:18 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 702 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Upper troughing remains persistent across the eastern CONUS with our forecast area residing on the backside of this trough and northwest flow aloft prevailing. This will help to keep the forecast primarily dry across the area through next weekend, with only an isolated shower or storm Tuesday into Wednesday afternoons when a pair of shortwaves moves over the area rounding the base of the trough. Overall highs will remain seasonable in the middle to upper 80`s through Monday, warming slightly to upper 80`s and lower 90`s for the rest of the week. Overnight lows will dip into the middle to upper 60`s tonight, cooling even further Monday night into the lower to middle 60`s. Middle to upper 60`s can be expected each night the rest of the week into the weekend, with lower 70`s along the immediate coast. A moderate risk of rip currents will continue through Tuesday, becoming a low risk Wednesday through Friday. MM/25 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 658 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period with a light northeasterly to easterly wind. BB-8 && .MARINE... Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A light to moderate northeasterly flow continues today, becoming a moderate to occasionally strong northeasterly to easterly flow tonight into Monday morning. A light to moderate easterly flow becomes established for Monday afternoon through Tuesday. A light diurnal flow returns for Wednesday evening through the weekend with onshore flow during the afternoon into evening hours and offshore flow late overnight into the morning hours each day. Small craft should exercise caution over the open gulf waters tonight into Monday morning. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 68 88 65 88 67 90 69 91 / 0 10 0 20 10 20 10 10 Pensacola 71 88 67 87 70 89 72 90 / 0 10 0 20 10 20 10 10 Destin 73 88 70 87 72 87 73 88 / 10 10 10 20 10 20 10 10 Evergreen 65 89 61 89 64 91 66 92 / 0 10 0 10 10 20 10 10 Waynesboro 65 88 63 88 64 89 65 90 / 0 10 0 20 10 30 10 0 Camden 66 88 62 88 65 89 66 90 / 0 10 0 10 10 20 10 0 Crestview 67 87 62 88 64 90 66 90 / 0 10 0 10 10 20 10 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243482 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:51 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 635 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 619 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 - Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning today and continuing into Tuesday. Greatest chances for rain are Monday into early Tuesday. - WPC has a Marginal to Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall across South TX through tonight. A Marginal Risk continues through Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 As expected, we are starting to see showers and thunderstorms develop, mainly over the Victoria Crossroads and along the coast. Our most recent sounding (08/31 at 00Z) showed PWAT values at 1.73 and current satellite estimates are around 2.0-2.2" in these areas, with drier air over the Brush Country and western Coastal Plains. There is still some question as to how far southwest the moisture will reach, but mesoscale models hint at some convection reaching as far west as Cotulla late tonight then continuing further south into portions of Webb County. Therefore, we still have 20-50% chance of PoPs across and west of the Brush Country, with a 40-70% chance over and east of the Coastal Plains tonight through Monday. WPC has included the Victoria Crossroads in a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for today and tonight. They then highlight a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall Monday and Monday night for the entire area. Localized flash flooding is possible in low-lying and poor drainage areas--especially in storms with high rainfall rates. As the boundary moves through the area Tuesday, rain chances will diminish and the main threat across the area returns, once again, to the heat. Temperatures will be "cooler" with precipitation and cloud cover Monday and Tuesday, leading to highs "only" in the 90s. By Wednesday, those will creep back up into the mid-90s along the coast to low 100s out west. South Texas summer is not really over, so continue to practice heat safety. Remember that heat stroke is an emergency. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 At time of writing, convection that developed earlier over VCT has moved south-southwest and is expected to continue for the next few hours. The atmosphere seems to be be stabilizing in the wake of the outflow which should allow for conditions to quiet down through most of the overnight hours. The closer we get to tomorrow morning, coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity becomes more uncertain. For now, we have kept PROB30 groups for -SHRA and -TSRA in the TAFs for all sites, with eastern sites beginning just before sunrise expanding westward by early afternoon. Overall, VFR conditions can be expected with gusty winds and MVFR to IFR conditions in and around any showers and thunderstorms. Winds will shift east then to the northeast/north tonight through Monday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Light to gentle (BF 2-3) southeast to east winds this afternoon and evening will become gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) northeast and north winds tonight through Tuesday. A medium (40-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening through Tuesday before chances diminish through Tuesday night. Winds will return to onshore flow late Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 91 76 93 / 40 50 40 40 Victoria 75 90 73 96 / 40 60 20 20 Laredo 78 97 76 96 / 10 40 50 40 Alice 76 93 75 96 / 30 50 40 40 Rockport 78 90 77 92 / 50 60 40 30 Cotulla 77 93 75 96 / 30 50 40 20 Kingsville 76 93 75 93 / 30 50 40 40 Navy Corpus 81 89 80 90 / 40 50 50 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243481 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:36 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 730 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure from the north will continue to maintain control through Tuesday, before weak low pressure likely impacts the area by the middle of next week. A weak cold front could then impact the area late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Latest surface analysis shows high pressure well to the north and northeast of the area, while the old frontal boundary is several hundred miles south of the area. The high pressure has allowed for a pseudo wedge pattern to take hold, with steady northeasterly flow keeping cooler temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon. Much of the same is expected through tonight and tomorrow. Pressure gradient remains in place between the high to the north, and then low pressure along the front to the south. Gusts decrease just a touch tonight, while cooler, drier air sinks into the area. Lows tonight range from the upper 50s inland to the lower 60s at the coast. Weak wedge pattern continues for Labor Day Monday. Some cirrus expected throughout the day, coupled with some scattered diurnal cumulus in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Cutoff upper low over NY/PA will open and lift while another, deeper low approaches the Great Lakes from the NW. The energy that kicks out the lead low will maintain cyclonic curvature aloft locally but the column appears too dry for any meaningful rain chances despite the gentle lift. The continued presence of surface high pressure to our north will keep temperatures a few degrees below normal by both day and night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Gradient eases Wednesday as the high to our north erodes in strength. A healthy shortwave rounding the base of the trough tries to draw some frontal moisture north towards the area but it gets absorbed into the flow almost completely. As the Great Lakes system spins with little movement there may be just enough energy rotating around it to draw a little moisture this far north. The largely failed attempt to pull moisture north into the area will continue until a cold front sweeps through on Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the period. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR with very brief restrictions possible due to a passing SHRA close to the coast. && .MARINE... Through Monday...Small Craft Advisory in place until midnight EDT Tuesday (i.e., Monday night into Tuesday morning). Stiff northeasterly wind continues through the entire period, with gusts up to 27 kts. Seas remain at 3-4 ft at the coast, with 5-6 ft waves found 20 nm offshore. Monday Night through Friday...Gradient between large high to our north and a front stalled to the south will be easing Monday night. Headlines still expected to be lowered but the abating trend will be slow, it will be Tuesday night before winds and seas drop below criteria more decidedly. The weakening high moves off the New England coast late Wed into Thu veering the winds, eventually attaining a more climatologically common southern component. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1243480 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 723 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend across the area through mid week while a stationary front lingers just off the coast. A cold front could pass through the region by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... A deep layer upper trough will remain anchored over the eastern U.S. and into the Southeast through the period. At the surface, a wedge of high pressure will also stay in place, keeping low level northeast winds and below normal temperatures and humidity levels. The radar has been showing scattered light showers over the Atlantic waters, but these showers seem to diminish as they reach the relatively drier/more stable air over the land. There still could be a short lived shower or two near the coast, especially from Beaufort southward to the Savannah Area through the rest of the afternoon. Breezy northeast winds will continue, especially closer to the coast. Tonight: any showers near the coast are expected to die down, but could see them continue further out into the Atlantic waters. Northeast winds will become less breezy, but likely to continue at least 5-10 mph much of the night. Lows dropping back into the lower to mid 60s, upper 60s to near 70 closer to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Between dry, high pressure building into the region from the north and an coastal low meandering offshore, expect cool and pleasant weather on Monday and Tuesday. This drier air will keep precipitation chances almost to zero, with the greatest chance of rainfall (~20%) across Southeast Georgia in the afternoon. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal through the middle of the week as breezy east-northeasterly winds persist and high pressure builds into the region. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s inland and low 70s near the coastline. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As the surface high pressure shifts northeastward, an upper-lvl trough and associated cold front approaches the region from the northwest late this week, and could possibly bring unsettled conditions this weekend. Precipitation chances were kept on the lower end as uncertainty remains high this far out into the forecast. Temperatures will remain below normal through Wednesday night, and then near normal by the end of the week depending on the strength of the high pressure out ahead of the front. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Prevailing VFR at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV through the 00Z TAF period. Northeasterly winds will remain slightly elevated through the overnight, around 8-10 knots. Gusty northeast winds will ramp back up again Monday morning, with gusts around 20 knots included in the TAF through most of Monday. Extended Aviation Forecast: Expect mainly VFR through early this week. Brief flight restrictions are possible afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the middle of the week. && .MARINE... SCA conditions are expected to continue through tonight all waters as the pressure gradient remains tight over the coastal waters between a wedge of high pressure inland, and lower pressure well offshore. Scattered showers, possibly a thunderstorm, especially later night. Seas generally 4 to 8 feet, highest beyond 10 nm offshore. Monday through Friday: Breezy east-northeasterly winds will become rather gusty across the Atlantic until the middle of the week (w/ gusts up to 25 to 30 kts possible). Therefore, Small Craft Advisories will persist for all marine zones through at least Tuesday. Seas will will range from 5 to 7 ft, and then back down to 2 to 4 ft on Wednesday morning. By the end of the week, winds will switch more easterly as surface high pressure shifts offshore and a cold front approaches from the northwest. Rip Currents: Due to the increasing swell height/period and enhanced onshore flow, a moderate risk of rip currents has been issued for today and a high risk of rip currents has been issued for Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Persistent northeasterly flow will result in steadily building tidal departures through early in the week. As of right now, tides should fall short of minor flooding, however Monday and Tuesday could get close during the afternoon high tide cycle. This risk may extend into the middle of next week depending on how strong the pinched gradient gets. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...High Risk for Rip Currents from Monday morning through Monday evening for GAZ117-119-139-141. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from Monday morning through Monday evening for SCZ048>051. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ330. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ350-352-354. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1243479 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:30 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 620 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 The stalled front that has been draped just off of the SE LA coast continues to slowly move south farther into the Gulf today as the upper-level trough axis swings southward through the Mid-Atlantic region. This will only help to reinforce drier continental air behind it from the surface to 700mb. Because of this, moisture will be below the climatological median for this time of year for most of the area. This dry air and overall subsidence will help suppress rain chances on land today and keep temps bearable as we remain a few degrees below average for this time of year. However, along and south of the boundary will continue to see scattered convection throughout the day today where the moisture profiles are more favorable. This mainly includes the immediate SE LA coast and its adjacent marine areas. The mid-level moisture gradient looks to stay along the coast tomorrow as we still have a more westerly component to the upper- level flow as the center of the trough over the Northeast US meanders and pivots. This will once again create a focus for convection right along and just south of that boundary. Therefore, only expecting scattered coastal convection tomorrow along that boundary and dry conditions north of it. We will once again be slightly below average in terms of temperatures && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 By Tuesday, the upper-level trough that was meandering across the Mid-Atlantic looks to finally get overtaken by a stronger trough coming down across the Northern Plains. This will start to do a couple of things that counteract each other. This will help throw impulses down across the mid and lower MS River Valley while reinforcing drier mid-level air. The main issue is the timing of these impulses throughout the middle to end of next week. But regardless, the moisture content seems to be at or below the 25th percentile for this time of year, so convection will be hard to come by. The impulses could help to overcome this and give scattered showers/storms, but it would be isolated at best. So, expect mostly dry conditions throughout the workweek as the northwesterly flow continues to pump dry air into the area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 All convective activity was offshore at forecast issuance time, with VFR conditions in place. That`s likely to continue through the overnight hours, and probably the daytime hours on Monday as well. While there will likely be some cumulus development on Monday, temperature/dew point spreads indicate that cloud bases should be above FL030 for much or all of the daytime hours. If any thunderstorms develop at all near the terminals, it would be at KHUM, and even there, areal coverage looks to be isolated, with probabilities too low to justify mentioning in the forecast 18+ hours out. && .MARINE... Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Daily thunderstorms remain the main issue over the marine areas as a stalled front lingers near the coastal waters. Expect brief bursts of stronger winds and higher waves in and near storms. The boundary pushes farther into the Gulf today and Monday, with offshore flow setting in behind it and holding through midweek. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 67 88 68 88 / 0 10 10 30 BTR 70 90 71 91 / 10 10 10 20 ASD 68 88 69 88 / 0 10 10 20 MSY 76 90 75 91 / 0 20 10 30 GPT 71 87 70 88 / 0 20 10 20 PQL 68 88 68 88 / 0 10 10 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243478 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:24 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 718 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 1221 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Northeast surge of winds will continue to work its way southward through this afternoon and evening, pushing the frontal boundary south of the region into Central Florida, while high pressure nudges southward down the SE US coastline. This will continue to set up convergent bands of locally heavy rainfall along the Atlantic Coastal counties and I-95 corridor from metro JAX southward through St. Johns/Flagler counties, so far still counting on these to be transient enough to lessen any widespread Flooding issues and will hold off on Flood Watch for now, but with 2-4 inch rainfall amounts possible over the next 48-72 hours with isolated higher amounts around 6 inches, this may be required if the NE surge of winds does not push the low level convergence bulls-eye further down the NE FL coastline. Breezy conditions have already developed for all areas with sustained winds around 15 mph with gusts around 25 mph, while windy conditions are expected closer to the immediate Atlantic Coast and St. Johns River Basin with sustained winds of 20-25 mph with peak winds of 30-40 mph expected, but still remaining just below Wind Advisory criteria. Diurnal heating into the lower/middle 80s over inland areas should still be enough to trigger scattered showers and isolated storms over inland NE FL where enough deep moisture still remains with PWATs in the 1.6 to 2.0 inch range. Convection over inland areas will fade after sunset, leaving just numerous showers and embedded/isolated storms continue over the Atlantic Coastal waters and into the NE FL coastal counties with occasional convergent rain bands from time to time from JAX southward along the entire NE FL coastline. Further inland partial clearing and slightly drier airmass will support low temps down into the middle 60s across inland SE GA and upper 60s/lower 70s across inland NE FL and generally middle 70s along the Atlantic Coastal areas. While some low level stratus is expected at times over inland areas, the elevated NE winds inland at 5-10 mph will reduce the chance of fog formation, while breezy winds at 15-20G30 mph will continue along the entire NE FL/SE GA coastline through the night. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1221 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 High pressure will build down the east coast of the US Monday, as the frontal zone sinks toward southern FL. A weak inverted trough will be along the coast, resulting in enhanced winds at area beaches. Drier air will keep interior SE GA dry, with highest precipitation chances over coastal NE FL. This pattern will persist through Tuesday night. While the greatest chance for precipitation will be during the heating of the day, the moist onshore flow could keep chances going through the night, especially at the coast. Temperatures will trend below normal this period. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1221 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 As the high builds more toward the north northeast Wednesday, the frontal zone will lift back north across the area. As the front moves back into area, moisture will increase, resulting in higher precipitation chances. The high will move further away to the northeast Wednesday night into Thursday, as the frontal zone largely dissipates. With the front not as much of a factor, Thursday is expected to be a little drier day. High pressure will be to the northeast Friday. A weak cold front will move southeast into area over the weekend. Precipitation chances from Friday through Sunday are expected to range from isolated to scattered. Temperatures will trend near to a little above normal this period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 718 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Breezy NE winds this evening will gradually subside to around 10 kts overnight inland but remain 10-15G20-25 for coastal terminals. Winds increase once again to 15G20-25 kts after 12Z. Rounds of coastal showers will shift onshore through the night and into tomorrow mainly affecting SGJ as the area of low level convergence shifts southward. Showers could be heavy at times briefly lowering CIGs and VSBYs. A MVFR stratus deck will likely develop after 06Z across much of the TAF sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 1221 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 High pressure to the north of the region will wedge down the southeastern seaboard through tonight, continuing a surge of northeasterly winds and building seas across our local waters. Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through early Tuesday. Waves of showers and embedded thunderstorms will impact our local waters through midweek. Northeasterly winds will begin to gradually weaken late Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing for seas to gradually subside. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will then decrease later this week as prevailing winds shift to westerly ahead of a series of approaching cold fronts. Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents will continue Monday and Tuesday in the Northeast flow pattern with surf/breakers reaching into the 4-6 ft range at times, but at this time still expected to remain below high surf advisory criteria of 7 feet. Minor to locally Moderate beach erosion can be expected at times of high tide, but coastal flooding is not expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1221 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Will continue to monitor heavy rainfall potential along the I-95 corridor and Atlantic Coastal Counties of NE FL through the entire Labor Day weekend and the possibility of Flood Watch issuance as still expecting 2-4 inch rainfall totals over the next 2 to 3 days in this corridor with locally higher amounts up to 6 inches possible. Middle St. Johns River Basin south of JAX to Palatka vicinity will continue to run at elevated/Action stage water levels as the Northeast flow pattern traps some of the higher water levels in the basin. Minor flooding will be possible in the Putnam county areas if this pattern lingers into the Monday/Tuesday time frame with water levels reaching 1.5 ft above MHHW, but too early to issue any Coastal Flood Advisory products at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 65 84 63 86 / 10 0 0 10 SSI 74 83 72 84 / 10 10 10 30 JAX 72 84 71 86 / 30 20 10 50 SGJ 75 84 74 86 / 40 50 30 60 GNV 71 86 69 88 / 20 20 0 40 OCF 72 86 71 88 / 20 30 0 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1243477 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 704 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in control through at least Thursday, bringing an extended stretch of dry weather and seasonably warm temperatures. Turns more humid by Friday, with an approaching cold front bringing showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Humid conditions and risk for showers may linger into Saturday ahead of the cold front, then cooler and drier weather returns next Sunday as the front moves off the coast. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Key Messages: * Local seabreezes last through this afternoon. Quiet night with mid to high level cloud cover building in. High pressure continues to dominate the pattern, keeping the rest of today and tonight dry. Some mid to high level clouds build in tonight as some moisture aloft advects in from the south. With winds becoming light and clouds building in, a more mild night is ahead tonight with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. East/southeast coastal areas may be even warmer with lows in the upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: * Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions continue with onshore winds With the surface high shifting into Maine, NE flow will kick in Monday morning and continue through the day. Coastal areas will be slightly cooler than the rest of the region as a result. Much of the interior can expect to see seasonable highs in the upper 70s, with some spots in the valleys reaching 80F. A shortwave over the Great Lakes region will close off and shift into the mid-Atlantic Monday. Moisture aloft from this circulating disturbance will move in over southern New England, leading to continued mid to high cloud cover. This is expected to clear through Monday night, aside from much of eastern MA, RI. Lows Monday night are expected to be mild much like tonight, ranging from the low 50s inland to the mid/upper 50s towards the eastern coastlines. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Messages: * Dry and seasonable Tue with somewhat warmer weather Wed & Thu * Increasing rain chances Thu night & Fri and turning more humid * Still somewhat humid Sat with some risk for showers, then cooler and drier Sunday Details: High pres remains in control through Wed and likely lasting into Thu as the high pres slowly moves offshore. Dry and near seasonable temps Tue with NE flow, then a slight warming trend Wed-Thu as the high moves offshore with S-SW flow developing which brings warmer low level temps into SNE. Highs should reach into the upper 70s- lower 80s with GEFS and EPS showing at least moderate probs of temps 80+ away from the south coast. Dry weather expected to last through Thu as next system will be slower to move in from the west As we move to the end of the week, a deep upper low will set up north of the Gt Lakes with somewhat amplified trough to the south across E-central US. Higher PWAT plume within the deep SW flow will advect northward into SNE leading to increasing chance of showers, especially Thu night into Fri as a shortwave rotating around the upper low acts on deep moisture plume and low level convergence. There is some instability present so a few t-storms will be possible as well. Not looking at heavy rainfall as ensembles only indicating low-moderate probs of 0.50" QPF. It will become somewhat humid Fri as higher PWAT air moves into the region with dewpoints climbing through the 60s. Looking ahead to the weekend, upper trough is still hanging back to the west and a shortwave and main frontal boundary still has to move through so can`t rule out another round of showers and chance of t- storms Sat. But timing of this boundary will determine the extent of the shower risk. Potential for warm and humid conditions Sat if we remain in the pre-frontal airmass, then it should turn cooler and drier Sunday as front moves offshore. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00z TAF Update: Tonight through Monday...High confidence. VFR through the period. Mid and high clouds move in overnight through Mon. Light winds become northerly later tonight. NE winds 5-15 kt Mon. Monday Night through Tuesday...High confidence. VFR Monday night and Tuesday, but NE winds pick up a bit, especially along the SE coast. While winds are light northerly for most of southern New England, NE winds become around 10-15 kt for the east coast and around 15-20 kt for the Cape and Islands. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Monday Night...High confidence. Winds/seas remain below SCA criterion in this period. Light NE/E winds around 10-15 kt become light tonight. NE winds around 5-10 kt Monday, increasing to around 15-20 kt Mon night. Seas 4ft or less all waters. Tuesday...Moderate confidence. NE winds increase to near-SCA levels (around 20-25 kt) over the southeast waters, with seas nearing 4-6 ft. May need SCAs for waters adjacent to Cape Cod and the Islands. Possible risk of rip currents against east-facing beaches. Elsewhere, NE winds around 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt and seas 4 ft or less. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1243476 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 601 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 The main concern for the remainder of the holiday weekend continues to be the heat. As a mid-level ridge continues to linger over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, and low-level southerly to southeasterly flow continues bring in more low-level moisture into the region. These factors result in higher temperatures and higher heat indices as well. With nearly a majority of the CWA in a major (level 3 of 4) heat risk, and the rest of the region in a moderate (level 2 of 4). With the range of the heat indices in the range of 105 to 110 for today and tomorrow, additional Special Weather Statements could be issued for elevated heat indices. For resources on staying safe in the heat, visit weather.gov/heatsafety. With the previously mentioned mid-level ridge over the area, the chances for rain will remain low (less than 20%) for today. However, a frontal boundary is expected to move southward and stall towards the north of the CWA by tomorrow afternoon. With the southerly to southeasterly low-level moisture flow expected at this time, there will be an opportunity for moisture to pool ahead of the boundary and allow for the development of showers and thunderstorms. Add in some instability from the diurnal heating as well, and the environment is capable of producing some showers and thunderstorms. Current rain chances for tomorrow afternoon and Tuesday remain around medium (40-50%). WPC has a small portion of the Northern Ranchlands in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4). While the environmental conditons seem favorable, the key to the forecast for the rain will be where the frontal boundary stalls out. Should the frontal boundary stall out further north, then the chances for rain will decrease for tomorrow and Tuesday afternoon. Further updates on this developing situation are expected. The frontal boundary is expected to finally move through the region Tuesday afternoon. At this point, the temperatures are not expected to change much with this frontal passage, but the winds are expected to shift towards the north after the frontal passage. Most of next week generally has low rain chances (less than 30%). Most showers and thunderstorms will be related to any sort of seabreeze activity. There is some model guidance that suggests that another front may try to move through the region late next week. The latest model guidance does bring the chances of rain up to a medium chance (40- 60%) for next weekend, however further forecast shifts will need to continue to monitor the model trends to see how the forecast continues to evolve. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 552 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. South to southeasterly winds will turn more easterly around midday Monday as a front begins to push into Deep South Texas. As we head into Monday afternoon, chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase across the aerodromes with PROB30s in place. Any rain or thunderstorm that moves over the airports could reduce visibilities briefly to MVFR/IFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Generally favorable conditions with mostly light to moderate southerly to southeasterly winds and low to moderate seas. Medium chances (40-50%) of rain are expected for tomorrow afternoon and Tuesday as a frontal boundary stalls out towards the north. By late Tuesday into Wednesday, the front is expected to push through in the Lower Texas Coast and the winds are expected to turn to towards the north while remaining light to moderate. The winds should return to the south fairly quickly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 79 95 78 94 / 10 40 40 60 HARLINGEN 75 96 74 95 / 0 50 40 60 MCALLEN 79 101 79 97 / 0 40 50 60 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 101 76 96 / 0 30 60 50 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 88 80 88 / 10 40 40 50 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 92 77 91 / 10 40 40 60 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243473 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:06 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 552 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 - Localized heavy rain continues through the weekend. A slight risk of excessive rain (threat level 2 of 4) is in place today. A marginal risk for excessive rain (threat level 1 of 4) continues on Labor Day. - Tranquil conditions expected mid-week as drier air filters into the region. Potential for showers and storms may start to work back in late in the week or during the upcoming weekend. - High temperatures will be in the 80s today and in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Monday. Temperatures will rise into the mid 90s by mid-week. At night, lows should gradually slide through the 70s towards the upper 60s inland as the drier air filters in. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A weak frontal boundary will continue to push towards the coastal areas of Southeast TX today while the mid-level high pressure continues to shift a little more west. A few vort maxes will also pass overhead today and with plenty of moisture to work with from the surface through the mid-levels, it will be of no surprise to see the development of showers and thunderstorms. We already had several clusters of showers and thunderstorms develop over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region this morning and we can expect these showers and thunderstorms to continue to progress southward throughout the day today. Chance for showers and thunderstorms will decrease later tonight as diurnal heating and instability decreases while the frontal boundary moves over the coastal waters, although, we may still see some isolated activity at times throughout the night. The active weather pattern is expected to persist into Monday as the frontal boundary meanders over the coastal waters. Although there is a chance for at least isolated showers over much of the region on Monday, the higher chances are expected to be focused mainly over areas near and south of I-10. So, are we at risk for flooding today into Monday? It is reasonable to say that we will have to see what locations the heavy rains set up, the storm movement, and how saturated the soils become. As of this morning, the GOES Imagery indicate total precipitable water amounts between 2.1 to 2.4 inches over much of Southeast TX and with a reasonable amount of moisture along the mid-levels, it will be of no surprise if stronger storms continue to produce heavy rainfall with rain rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour (as we have observed from this morning). The speed at which these storms move will also be a significant factor regarding the potential for higher accumulations over a short time period. This could lead to flooding issues along roadways as well as low lying and poor drainage areas, in particular over more urban regions. WPC has continued as a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall (level 2 of 4) across all of Southeast TX through late tonight. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) continues for much of Southeast TX on Monday, although an upgrade to Slight Risk may not be out of the question for some of our coastal locations. Make sure to check the radar imagery and traffic conditions before you begin your commute this holiday weekend. Strong storms will be capable of also producing frequent lightning and gusty winds...make sure to have an alternative option for outdoors activities. Remember, when thunder roars, head indoors. Some isolated activity may remain over areas near and south of I-10 on Tuesday as the coastal boundary finally progresses further into the Gulf in response to a dry reinforcing frontal boundary approaching the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region. By late Tuesday night, chance for rain ends as drier air moves pushes into Southeast TX. A dry weather pattern is expected to persist into the end of the work week. Rain chance may return during the upcoming weekend. With respect to temperatures, we will see high temperatures generally in the 80s today and in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Monday. Temperatures will then rise back into the lower 90s by Tuesday and the lower to mid 90s by Thursday. As for the low temperatures, we will begin to feel those cooler nighttime temperatures Tuesday night into Thursday night with lows dipping into the mid to upper 60s over areas north of I-10, the lower 70s over areas near and south of I-10, and the upper 70s along the coasts. Cotto && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 549 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 TSRA has pushed offshore while lingering SHRA continues across the region. This SHRA activity should diminish this evening. Areas of low vis/cigs expected to develop overnight, mostly north of IAH. However, we cannot rule out sub-VFR conditions making it into the Houston area. Coverage of SHRA/TSRA is uncertain tomorrow. The activity today may have taken enough energy from the atmosphere to limit tomorrow`s SHRA/TSRA to isolated or widely scattered. For now, we have kept VCSH and PROB30 for -TSRA in the TAFs from IAH to the coast tomorrow. Winds will generally be light and variable. If TSRA develops tomorrow, then locally higher winds will be possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Generally light and variable winds with seas of 2 feet or less are expected through the upcoming weekend. A weak frontal boundary slowly moving southward over SE TX will bring scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms through Monday. The frontal boundary is expected to move into coastal waters later tonight into early Monday. Chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue on Tuesday as the front gradually moves deeper into the Gulf. Strong winds, frequent lightning, and elevated seas may occur in and near stronger storms. Large clusters of storms may result in moderate to strong winds for several hours over a larger scale and may need the issuance of Caution flags or Small Craft Advisories. Drier conditions are expected mid-week into the end of the work week as a drier airmass moves into Southeast TX in the wake of the front, however, isolated showers and thunderstorms may still develop at times. Cotto && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 73 89 72 91 / 30 40 10 10 Houston (IAH) 75 89 74 92 / 30 50 20 20 Galveston (GLS) 79 88 79 90 / 60 50 40 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243472 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:03 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 650 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 152 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A deep trough remains over the E CONUS, while a decaying stationary sfc boundary stretches across the northern half of the Florida peninsula and the northern Gulf waters. 18Z MFL sounding data was showing deep moisture over SoFlo with PWAT values above 2 inches, with model soundings also estimating PWAts around 2.0-2.5 inches for this afternoon, which is around the 80th percentile for the season. Deep tropical moisture will remain blocked to the north by the frontal boundary, supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The overall synoptic flow will continue to be driven by a westerly component dominating the 2-10 km atmospheric column. At the sfc, pressure gradients remain weak enough to keep a prevailing south-southwesterly weak flow in place, even becoming calm at times. Therefore, storm motion will be west-to- east, and placing the best chances for deep convection over the eastern half of SoFlo. POPs will be in the 70-75% range, with another round of weather expected today. Main lifting mechanism will again be sea breezes and outflow boundary collisions, resulting in lines of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms. Rainfall accumulations could reach the 2-3 inches range (isolated higher amounts possible) with the heaviest downpours, especially slow-moving cells. Therefore, main concern will be the potential for urban flooding over some of the Atlantic metro areas. Much of southeast Florida remains under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall each day through the rest of the long weekend. Expect high temps in the upper 80s to low 90s before cloud cover increases, while lows will again dip into the low-mid 70s overnight. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 149 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A prolonged period of unsettled weather will continue across South Florida as deep upper-level troughing remains established over the Eastern Seaboard. Satellite imagery early this morning shows the trough axis has ejected over the western Atlantic, while a corresponding surface boundary gradually drifts southward along the Florida peninsula. This should help enhance moisture advection along the column today. With this improved moisture profile and westerly flow in place, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible this afternoon, with activity starting to develop inland in the early afternoon hours, then progressing east towards the East Coast metro. Guidance suggests generally up to 1 inch across much of South Florida could be possible, with pockets of 1-2 inches along the East Coast metro, and up to 3 inches in isolated spots. One potential limiting factor to keep in mind will be the potential that the prevailing westerly flow could preclude the development of the Atlantic sea breeze this afternoon, which would reduce the possibility for convection to become pinned over the metro areas for prolonged periods, and thus limit the potential for higher rainfall accumulations. That being said, high-res models have shown spotty run-to-run consistency over the past several days, so confidence regarding the finer-scale details of this solution remains low. Nevertheless, given this discussion, and recent rainfall over the last few days, localized flooding concerns cannot be ruled out, and WPC is keeping much of South Florida under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall today, but widespread impacts appear unlikely at this time. On Monday, chances for widespread rainfall have trended downward, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms still forecast to develop, but concerns over flash flooding somewhat diminished. Highs this weekend will remain in the low-mid 90s, while lows could dip to the low-mid 70s overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 149 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 The period of unsettled weather looks to persist through much of the upcoming week as the upper-level trough lingers over the Eastern Seaboard, with several shortwave impulses moving through the flow. Repeated rounds of rainfall through mid-week will keep at least a marginal risk for localized flooding, especially along the East Coast metro where westerly flow will continue to focus activity. A weak surface low may develop and move across South FL on Tuesday, which could bring a temporary uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage. By late week, the upper trough is expected to gradually lift northward, which should begin to shift the pattern into next weekend. High temperatures through the extended period will generally range from the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the low-mid 70s across the interior and up to the upper 70s along the coasts. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 700 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Winds will become light and variable after 00-01Z and remain so through around 16Z when W-SW flow returns. Showers or thunderstorms may linger near the terminals through the early evening hours, then VFR prevails overnight. Another round of MVFR/IFR periods is likely after 18Z, especially over the Atl terminals as lines of thunderstorms will favor the eastern half of South Florida. && .MARINE... Issued at 149 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Light westerly to southwesterly winds develop today across all local waters. Seas are expected at 2 feet or less across all local waters. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain possible each day, which may cause periods of locally gusty winds and rough seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 77 92 77 91 / 70 80 60 80 West Kendall 76 91 76 91 / 60 80 60 80 Opa-Locka 76 93 77 92 / 70 80 50 80 Homestead 76 91 76 91 / 70 80 60 80 Fort Lauderdale 76 91 77 91 / 70 80 60 80 N Ft Lauderdale 77 92 77 92 / 70 80 50 80 Pembroke Pines 76 93 77 93 / 70 80 50 80 West Palm Beach 76 91 77 91 / 70 80 50 80 Boca Raton 76 93 76 92 / 70 80 50 80 Naples 78 91 77 91 / 60 70 50 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243470 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:30 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 328 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track northeastward along a stalled front off the NC coast today and tomorrow. Meanwhile, high pressure builds into the area from the north, and will build closer to the coast on Monday. Another area of low pressure may pass over or offshore of the area by mid-week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 2:15 PM Sunday...Latest observations show light showers continuing along the Outer Banks thanks to a stalled boundary just off our coast. Elsewhere, skies are mostly sunny with diurnal cu. ENC is sandwiched between high pressure building south and a low pressure system well off the NC coast that`s progressing northeastward. Our placement between these two features is causing breezy northeasterly winds gusting to 20-25 mph. Tonight will be quiet for the majority of the forecast area with the exception of the immediate coast (mainly from Downeast Carteret to the NOBX) and offshore. With the axis of an upper trough moving overhead tonight and the proximity of the offshore low, chance PoPs will linger through the night and into tomorrow. Across the coastal plain, skies will be mostly clear, which will aid temps in dropping into the upper-50s. Along the coast where there will be greater cloud cover, temps will remain closer to 70. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... As of 2:40 PM Sunday...Labor Day will be a copy and paste of today with highs in the upper-70s to low-80s, gusty northeasterly winds, and chance PoPs along the immediate coast. High pressure will continue to build south into the area but the proximity of the offshore low and upper-level support from the deep trough overhead will allow for continued scattered light showers from Downeast Carteret to the NOBX and offshore. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 AM Sun... Key Messages - Below normal temperatures expected through midweek - Monitoring the potential for unsettled weather mid week - Forecast uncertainty beyond the next day or two remains above average. Tuesday...Troughing will remain over the Eastern Seaboard with an upper level low centered in the Northeastern CONUS moving little through Tuesday morning. This upper level low then moves off to the north and east Tue night into the Canadian Maritimes. Enhanced southern stream jet will also be noted extending from the Sargasso Sea west into the Deep South. This is notable as this will be the catalyst for surface low cyclogenesis off the Southeast Coast with this low forecast to deepen as it tracks north and east off the East Coast. At the same time, surface high pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes but will be wedging itself into the Mid- Atlantic. This is forecast to keep the aforementioned low off the coast of the Carolinas on Monday and Tuesday thus limiting any precip threat to along the coast and OBX. However, recent trends have shown this low becoming deeper and tracking further to the north than previously modeled which could result in windier conditions along the coast and OBX than previously expected. By Tue we are also monitoring a shortwave diving south across the Northern Plains along the periphery of the troughing over the Eastern CONUS. This lead shortwave will be out ahead of a much deeper trough diving S`wards from the Canadian Prairies towards the Great Lakes. At the surface this will result in a second area of cyclogenesis in the Central Plains with this surface cyclone and its associated front pushing further southwards towards the Gulf Coast States. Aforementioned shortwave has trended slower with its progression on recent model runs which results in slower surface low progression which has impacts on Wed and Thurs forecast. As a result we have lower than avg confidence in the forecast on Tue. Otherwise temps will continue to remain below avg through Tue with highs only getting into the mid 70s to low 80s. Lows get into the upper 50s inland to upper 60s across the OBX each night. Wed through next weekend...Low confidence forecast for the remainder of the extended range given large model spread in overall strength and position of upper level troughs and lower level features later next week. Lead shortwave trough is forecast to strengthen some on Wed/Thurs allowing broad troughing over the Eastern CONUS to deepen while southern stream jet strengthens further allowing for a deepening surface low in the Gulf. This deepening low is then forecast to track north and east on Wed/Thurs. Recent trends have slowed the progression of this low and trended towards a more offshore track, so impacts have lowered on Wed but have increased on Thurs as the low makes its closest point of approach. As a result, have the area precip free on Wed with SChc to Chc PoPs on Thurs to account for this recent trend. Given the lower confidence in the forecast, changes will likely be needed in the coming days. Otherwise strong upper trough dives into the Great Lakes and Northeast Wed through Fri with associated surface low and cold front pushing east towards ENC. High pressure is then forecast to build in from the west over the weekend. Again, guidance is having a hard time handling the strength and position of the upper level troughs, so confidence in the exact evolution of these features is low. But could see a low end threat for additional precip on Fri into the weekend. Temps remain below avg through Wed then increase closer to avg by the end of the week as NE`rly flow becomes more S`rly and low level thicknesses increase. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Monday afternoon/... As of 2:50 PM Sunday...Predominantly VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. High pressure is building in from the north, which will keep the majority of the area dry. Along the coast, scattered light showers are expected to persist through tomorrow due to an offshore low, which may allow for some brief periods of sub-VFR conditions. Winds will remain out of the northeast with gusts to 15-25 kt today and tomorrow afternoon. LONG TERM /Monday afternoon through Thursday/... As of 220 AM Sun...Expect primarily VFR conditions across ENC through at least Tues outside of any shower or tstm activity along the immediate coast/OBX associated with a low which will be well offshore. Potential for sub-VFR chances increases around mid week next week with the approach of a low pressure system. Breezy NE`rly winds of 10-15 kts with gusts up to 15-25 kts are possible Mon especially across the OBX as the pressure gradient tightens between low pressure well to the east and high pressure to the north and west. Winds then ease from Tue onwards. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Monday night/... As of 3:15 PM Sunday... Key Messages... - Ongoing small craft conditions across all waters except for the Pamlico and Pungo Rivers. Conditions expected to continue through Labor Day The pressure gradient will continue tightening today between high pressure building in from the north and a low pressure system a few hundred miles south of the NC coast. Winds are currently 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt, and these conditions are expected to continue through Labor Day. Seas have responded by building to 5-6 ft this afternoon and will continue to increase to 5-7 ft tonight. 5- 7 ft seas will persist through Labor Day with a period of 6-7 seconds. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 220 AM Sun...Ongoing SCA conditions will be noted across all waters outside of the Neuse/Bay and Pamlico/Pungo Rivers as a tight pressure gradient between a departing low off to the east and a wedge of high pressure noted to the north keeps the gradient tight allowing for widespread 15-25 kt NE`rly winds with gusts up to 20-30 kts. Lightest winds will be noted in the aforementioned rivers. Seas along our coastal waters will be around 4-7 ft as well to start the day on Monday. As we go through the day on Mon, NE`rly winds should gradually ease from west to east down to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts as low pressure pulls away from the region. This should allow the SCA`s across our inland sounds and rivers to end Mon afternoon into Mon evening. NE`rly winds will continue to ease Mon night with gusts falling below 25 kts across all waters by Tue morning. However, 4-6 ft seas across our coastal waters will persist a little longer going into Tue evening before seas fall to 3-5 ft allowing the last of the SCA`s to end across our coastal waters. Afterwards, NE`rly winds ease to 5-10 kt by Wed morning with seas falling to 2-4 ft as high pressure ridging controls the ambient weather. Winds continue to remain light but gradually veer on Thurs and into the end of the week to a SE to S and then SW`rly direction as a cold front approaches from the west. Seas generally remain at 2-4 ft from Wed onwards as well. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 245 PM Sunday... Notable low pressure south of ENC, and strong high pressure over New England, will support persistent, and strengthening, northeasterly onshore flow along the OBX over the next few days. This should allow wave heights and periods to gradually build. At the peak, guidance suggests wave periods of 8-9 seconds by Tuesday. Normally this wouldn`t be concerning, but in light of the recent impact to dunes in the wake of Hurricane Erin, there is at least a low end risk of some minor coastal issues. This would especially be the case by high tide (~3pm) on Tuesday as wave periods reach their peak. At this time, no headlines are planned, but we will continue to monitor water levels and trends in wave guidance to determine if a locally higher risk may develop. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for NCZ196-199- 203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ131-135-230- 231. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-158. && $$ |
| #1243469 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:18 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 306 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 302 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 - Persistent troughing over the eastern U.S. will periodically enhance shower and storm coverage through mid week. - A low risk of excessive rainfall exists each day, particularly in areas that see repeated rounds of showers and storms. - Developing onshore flow will lead to a moderate risk for rip currents at area beaches; surf conditions are expected to deteriorate further on Labor Day, especially from Cape Canaveral northward. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Today-Tonight... Upper level trough centered across the eastern US, and extending over the Florida peninsula, remains in place. This will maintain a general westerly flow aloft across the local area. At the surface, a nearly stationary front stretches across the northern Gulf Coast into the western Atlantic, with deep moisture pooling near to south of the boundary (PW values around 1.9-2.1" across the Florida peninsula). Shortwave energy aloft is forecast to induce a weak low pressure over the Atlantic. This will result in north/northeast flow to develop on the backside of the low, which will help push the stalled front a bit further southward. Locally, the westward winds aloft will continue to favor the east coast of Florida for diurnally-driven convection this afternoon and evening. Much like yesterday, due to high clouds streaming overhead, some uncertainty in the evolution of convection remains. However, higher than normal rain chances are once again forecast this afternoon and evening as deep moisture and westerly flow enhance the summertime convective pattern over ECFL. Activity across the west coast of Florida earlier this morning moved eastward into ECFL this afternoon and will continue to push eastward off the coast through mid afternoon. Additional showers and storms will be possible into late afternoon as boundary interactions occur. As flow turns north to northeast later this afternoon across the northern areas, scattered showers and storms should develop separately from the other convection. Have maintained 50-60 percent chance for showers and storms across the north, increasing to 70 percent across southern areas this afternoon into early evening. As flow becomes onshore this evening and overnight, onshore-moving showers and isolated storms will be possible through the overnight hours. Average to slightly below normal temperatures are forecast today due to the high clouds and higher rain chances. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Muggy conditions overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Monday... (Modified Previous Discussion) The surface boundary will have likely shifted a bit further southward over the area, closer to Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. This should induce onshore flow across most of the forecast area despite continued westerly flow aloft courtesy of the persistent eastern U.S. trough. Above normal rain chances are maintained, with morning coastal showers and storms spreading inland through the day. Of note, beach conditions are expected to become increasingly poor on the holiday given the increasing onshore flow, particularly north of Cape Canaveral. A building swell will likely induce a high risk for rip currents in these areas. Temperatures will be average to slightly below normal for this time of year as high clouds and higher rain chances continue. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 80s across the north, and upper 80s to low 90s across the south. Tuesday-Saturday... (Previous Discussion) Both deterministic and ensemble guidance remain in good agreement through the end of the week, with an unusually strong signal for a reinforcing trough over the eastern CONUS. In fact, ECMWF and NAEFS ensembles show standardized height anomalies of -3 to -4 sigma centered over the midwest Thursday and Friday. Weak perturbations embedded within the base of the trough will translate across the Gulf from time to time through at least mid week, continuing the trend of unsettled conditions. While convective chances remain highest in the afternoon and evening, precip cannot be ruled out during the overnight given onshore flow and an active pattern aloft. Late in the week, as the trough axis shifts over the eastern seaboard, models hint at some modest drying aloft across our northern zones. While any hints of a cool down are likely to remain to our north (its still too early to talk cold fronts), a sharp north-to-south precip gradient is likely to occur. && .MARINE... Issued at 302 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Today-Tonight... (Modified Previous Discussion) Poor boating conditions will develop north of Port Canaveral tonight. A weak surface boundary will settle southward over the local waters today, inducing north to northeast flow over the Volusia waters. Here, a small swell of of up to 3 - 5 feet will develop toward sunset, with seas building up to 6 feet in the far offshore waters of Volusia tonight. Mariners should be alert for thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds, with a better chance for offshore-movings storms south of Cape Canaveral. Monday-Thursday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Unsettled conditions continue as deep moisture and a stationary boundary remain parked over the local waters - leading to above normal chances of showers and thunderstorms. Deteriorating marine conditions are forecast given strengthening northeast winds, up to 15-20 knots north of Cape Canaveral. Seas building to 3 - 5 feet (up to 6 feet offshore Volusia)on Monday. Conditions will start to slowly improve into mid week as the surface boundary lifts back to the north and our local gradient weakens. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 130 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 VCTS/VCSH ongoing through the remainder of the afternoon as a stalled boundary remains north of east central Florida. TEMPOs in place at SFB through 19Z and from TIX southward through 22Z for VIS and CIG reductions due to TSRA. Adjustments to timing may be needed as the day evolves. Activity is forecast to diminish into the late evening hours, with VCSH ongoing through 06Z. Winds remain light out of the NNE, picking back up after 15Z around 10 knots with gusts to 20 knots possible. VCTS/VCSH returns to the forecast after 15Z at all terminals as the area remains under an active weather pattern. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 85 74 86 / 50 70 40 60 MCO 75 87 74 88 / 40 70 20 70 MLB 75 87 76 88 / 50 70 40 70 VRB 73 88 74 89 / 60 70 40 70 LEE 74 86 74 88 / 30 60 20 60 SFB 75 86 74 87 / 40 70 20 60 ORL 75 86 74 88 / 40 60 20 60 FPR 71 89 73 89 / 60 70 40 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1243468 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:18 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 307 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Continued dry and very pleasant conditions are expected with below average temperatures through the middle of the week. A cold front approaches late week with slightly warmer temperatures and a chance for showers. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 250 PM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - Dry weather and below average temperatures continue tonight with lows mainly in the 50s. Afternoon wx analysis shows high pressure over the Great lakes building E-SE toward the area, with a deep trough aloft over the eastern CONUS. Cloud cover has increased some this aftn as a shortwave at the base of the trough is crossing the area. Normally, this would at least bring a chance for showers this time of year, but given the dry air in place over a deep layer, nothing more than clouds are expected through this evening before skies gradually clear tonight. Very nice wx continues with temps in the mid to upper 70s and dew pts in the upper 40s-lower 50s in most areas. A NE wind has increased to ~15 mph near the coast with gusts to 20-25 mph. Winds become light/calm inland with a NE wind of 10-15 mph continuing near the immediate coast. Widespread lower 50s are expected inland, with low/mid 60s in far SE VA/NE NC. Similar to this morning, a few spots will likely drop into the upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - The streak of abnormally cool and dry August weather continues Monday and Tuesday, with slightly warmer temperatures expected on Wednesday. The large surface high to our north remains in control on Mon/Tue, which will lead to continued NE flow along with dry/pleasant wx with mainly mid-upper 70s as highs. Remaining breezy near the coast on Monday as coastal low pressure deepens offshore. Still think the low remains far enough offshore to keep rain chances out of the area but there could be a stray shower or two near the northern OBX Monday afternoon. Mostly sunny for most of the area with more clouds expected SE/closer to the coastal trough/low. Temperatures will be similar on Tuesday with some afternoon cumulus clouds. Widespread 50s are expected inland on both Mon/Tue night, with lower-mid 60s near the coast. The high shifts offshore on Wednesday, allowing the low-level flow to become more southeasterly. At the same time, a weak shortwave approaches from the west with stronger low pressure diving SE from central Canada to the NW Great Lakes. Modest moisture return is expected with aftn dew points rising to ~60F. However, it will very likely remain dry with perhaps a bit more in the way of cloud cover. Forecast highs Wed are a few degrees higher than on Mon/Tue. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Chance for showers and maybe a few storms returns Thursday into Friday as a front approaches the region from the west. - Warmer temperatures are expected from Friday through Saturday with highs in the mid to locally upper 80s possible. The strong low over the Great Lakes drags a cold front toward the area on Thursday. This feature could help trigger showers/tstms during the aftn/evening (highest chances NW with PoPs of 20% or less SE) as the low level flow increases out of the south. Noticeably warmer on Thu with highs in the low to mid 80s with a modest increase in humidity as dew points creep back into the low and mid 60s. Chance for showers continues into Thursday night and Friday, especially across the northern half of the area. There won`t be much in the way of CAA with the front on Thu/Thu night. In fact, forecast highs are a few degrees warmer (lower-upper 80s) on Fri/Sat with 60s dew pts. Still a low confidence forecast from Friday into the weekend as the 12z GFS continues to show higher precip chances than the ECMWF (mainly on Sat/Sat night). The ECMWF has no more than isolated showers in the forecast. Regardless, not really expecting a widespread soaking rain, as GEFS/EPS ensemble guidance has areal avg amounts of less than 0.25" across the area from Friday-Sunday. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 115 PM EDT Sunday... VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/31 TAF period. Partly cloudy skies prevail over the terminals with both high CI and SCT CU. Skies clear out tonight, with SCT CU possible Monday afternoon. NE winds remain gusty (to ~20 kt) near the coast through this evening before diminishing to ~10 kt tonight. Wind gusts to 20 kt are likely near the coast once again starting Mon AM. At RIC, winds become light tonight before increasing back to ~10 kt on Monday. Outlook: VFR conditions persist, with dry weather through at least midweek. Winds diminish Mon night-Tue. && .MARINE... As of 307 PM EDT Sunday... - A prolonged period of elevated onshore flow is expected through Monday. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for a portions of the coastal waters and Chesapeake Bay this afternoon into Monday night. With the low developing off the SE coast and the high building into our north, the gradient across the coastal waters has tightened this afternoon. This has resulted in rapidly building seas off the NC coast, with observed sea heights nearing 6 ft already this afternoon. Sea heights north of Cape Henry range between 2-4 ft, and waves are between 1-3 ft. Marine-based sites are measuring winds of 10-20 kts, with the highest winds in the southern waters. High pressure will remain in place through early next week. The area of low pressure off the Southeast coast will start to lift northeastward over the next day or so. The gradient between the high to our north and low to our south will remain tightened, leading to a period increased onshore flow, especially across our southern waters, through early next week. Wind speeds will average 10 to 20 knots during this time (highest S), but a period of 15 to 20 knot to near 20 kts winds is likely today through Monday south of Cape Henry. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the southern coastal waters and will expand to the remainder of the coastal waters through early tomorrow morning. Decided to include the northern Bay zones in the SCA tomorrow morning, though this may be a more marginal SCA than the southern Bay. By tomorrow evening, the coastal waters will be the only coastal zones in the SCA due to lingering seas. Winds will relax a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday with mainly sub-SCA winds in the forecast late next week. The persistent onshore flow will result in building seas through early next week, with 4 to 6 feet seas forecast starting today. Will need to keep an eye on especially the southern waters, as they may continue to overperform in terms of sea heights. Adjustments will be made to the wave height forecast as necessary. Seas will remain elevated through Tuesday before gradually starting to subside below SCA criteria. The rip current risk will be high for the southern beaches tomorrow, with a moderate rip risk for the northern beaches. The high rip risk will expand to northern beaches by Tuesday. The high rip risk will remain through Wednesday due to lingering seas and continued shore normal swells, though it will be more marginal than Tuesday as winds and seas will both be subsiding. && .CLIMATE... August 2025 will make the top 10 list for the coolest Augusts on record at Richmond, Salisbury, and Elizabeth City. Based on the forecast for the 31st (Sunday`s) temperatures, the best estimation is: - RIC: 7th or 8th coolest on record, coolest August since 1992. - SBY: 3rd or 4th coolest on record, coolest August since 2008. - ECG: 3rd or 4th coolest on record, coolest August since 1996. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to noon EDT Monday for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ632. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ634-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ652-654. && $$ |
| #1243467 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:12 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 211 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 The stalled front that has been draped just off of the SE LA coast continues to slowly move south farther into the Gulf today as the upper-level trough axis swings southward through the Mid-Atlantic region. This will only help to reinforce drier continental air behind it from the surface to 700mb. Because of this, moisture will be below the climatological median for this time of year for most of the area. This dry air and overall subsidence will help suppress rain chances on land today and keep temps bearable as we remain a few degrees below average for this time of year. However, along and south of the boundary will continue to see scattered convection throughout the day today where the moisture profiles are more favorable. This mainly includes the immediate SE LA coast and its adjacent marine areas. The mid-level moisture gradient looks to stay along the coast tomorrow as we still have a more westerly component to the upper- level flow as the center of the trough over the Northeast US meanders and pivots. This will once again create a focus for convection right along and just south of that boundary. Therefore, only expecting scattered coastal convection tomorrow along that boundary and dry conditions north of it. We will once again be slightly below average in terms of temperatures && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 By Tuesday, the upper-level trough that was meandering across the Mid-Atlantic looks to finally get overtaken by a stronger trough coming down across the Northern Plains. This will start to do a couple of things that counteract each other. This will help throw impulses down across the mid and lower MS River Valley while reinforcing drier mid-level air. The main issue is the timing of these impulses throughout the middle to end of next week. But regardless, the moisture content seems to be at or below the 25th percentile for this time of year, so convection will be hard to come by. The impulses could help to overcome this and give scattered showers/storms, but it would be isolated at best. So, expect mostly dry conditions throughout the workweek as the northwesterly flow continues to pump dry air into the area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 The only impact in this forecast period is scattered convection along the SE LA coast (mainly effecting HUM) associated with a stalled front. Expect that activity to decay as the sun goes down. After that, VFR conditions and very minimal impacts, if any, are expected at all terminals this forecast cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Daily thunderstorms remain the main issue over the marine areas as a stalled front lingers near the coastal waters. Expect brief bursts of stronger winds and higher waves in and near storms. The boundary pushes farther into the Gulf today and Monday, with offshore flow setting in behind it and holding through midweek. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 67 88 68 88 / 0 10 10 30 BTR 70 90 71 91 / 10 10 10 20 ASD 68 88 69 88 / 0 10 10 20 MSY 76 90 75 91 / 0 20 10 30 GPT 71 87 70 88 / 0 20 10 20 PQL 68 88 68 88 / 0 10 10 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243466 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:00 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 254 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Continued dry and very pleasant conditions are expected with below average temperatures through the middle of the week. A cold front approaches late week with slightly warmer temperatures and a chance for showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 250 PM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - Dry weather and below average temperatures continue tonight with lows mainly in the 50s. Afternoon wx analysis shows high pressure over the Great lakes building E-SE toward the area, with a deep trough aloft over the eastern CONUS. Cloud cover has increased some this aftn as a shortwave at the base of the trough is crossing the area. Normally, this would at least bring a chance for showers this time of year, but given the dry air in place over a deep layer, nothing more than clouds are expected through this evening before skies gradually clear tonight. Very nice wx continues with temps in the mid to upper 70s and dew pts in the upper 40s-lower 50s in most areas. A NE wind has increased to ~15 mph near the coast with gusts to 20-25 mph. Winds become light/calm inland with a NE wind of 10-15 mph continuing near the immediate coast. Widespread lower 50s are expected inland, with low/mid 60s in far SE VA/NE NC. Similar to this morning, a few spots will likely drop into the upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - The streak of abnormally cool and dry August weather continues Monday and Tuesday, with slightly warmer temperatures expected on Wednesday. The large surface high to our north remains in control on Mon/Tue, which will lead to continued NE flow along with dry/pleasant wx with mainly mid-upper 70s as highs. Remaining breezy near the coast on Monday as coastal low pressure deepens offshore. Still think the low remains far enough offshore to keep rain chances out of the area but there could be a stray shower or two near the northern OBX Monday afternoon. Mostly sunny for most of the area with more clouds expected SE/closer to the coastal trough/low. Temperatures will be similar on Tuesday with some afternoon cumulus clouds. Widespread 50s are expected inland on both Mon/Tue night, with lower-mid 60s near the coast. The high shifts offshore on Wednesday, allowing the low-level flow to become more southeasterly. At the same time, a weak shortwave approaches from the west with stronger low pressure diving SE from central Canada to the NW Great Lakes. Modest moisture return is expected with aftn dew points rising to ~60F. However, it will very likely remain dry with perhaps a bit more in the way of cloud cover. Forecast highs Wed are a few degrees higher than on Mon/Tue. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Chance for showers and maybe a few storms returns Thursday into Friday as a front approaches the region from the west. - Warmer temperatures are expected from Friday through Saturday with highs in the mid to locally upper 80s possible. The strong low over the Great Lakes drags a cold front toward the area on Thursday. This feature could help trigger showers/tstms during the aftn/evening (highest chances NW with PoPs of 20% or less SE) as the low level flow increases out of the south. Noticeably warmer on Thu with highs in the low to mid 80s with a modest increase in humidity as dew points creep back into the low and mid 60s. Chance for showers continues into Thursday night and Friday, especially across the northern half of the area. There won`t be much in the way of CAA with the front on Thu/Thu night. In fact, forecast highs are a few degrees warmer (lower-upper 80s) on Fri/Sat with 60s dew pts. Still a low confidence forecast from Friday into the weekend as the 12z GFS continues to show higher precip chances than the ECMWF (mainly on Sat/Sat night). The ECMWF has no more than isolated showers in the forecast. Regardless, not really expecting a widespread soaking rain, as GEFS/EPS ensemble guidance has areal avg amounts of less than 0.25" across the area from Friday-Sunday. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 115 PM EDT Sunday... VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/31 TAF period. Partly cloudy skies prevail over the terminals with both high CI and SCT CU. Skies clear out tonight, with SCT CU possible Monday afternoon. NE winds remain gusty (to ~20 kt) near the coast through this evening before diminishing to ~10 kt tonight. Wind gusts to 20 kt are likely near the coast once again starting Mon AM. At RIC, winds become light tonight before increasing back to ~10 kt on Monday. Outlook: VFR conditions persist, with dry weather through at least midweek. Winds diminish Mon night-Tue. && .MARINE... As of 220 AM EDT Sunday... - A prolonged period of elevated onshore flow is expected beginning this afternoon and continuing through Monday. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for a portion of the coastal waters and lower Chesapeake Bay this afternoon into Monday night. Early this morning, high pressure is centered north of the area (over the Great Lakes). Meanwhile, ~1012 mb low pressure is located just off the far northern FL/southern GA coast. Winds range from E to NE over the waters, with wind speed ~5 knots north to 10 to 15 knots south. Seas are running around 2 to 3 feet, and waves in the Chesapeake Bay 1 to 2 feet. High pressure will remain in place (slightly north of the area) into early this week. The area of low pressure that is currently located off the FL/GA coast will start to move further to the NE and develop off the Carolina Coast over the next day or so. The gradient between the high to our north and low to our south will tighten, leading to increased onshore flow, especially across our southern waters, starting this later this morning and continuing through at least Monday. Wind speeds will average 10 to 20 knots during this time (highest S), but a period of 15 to 20 knot (locally 20-25 knot) winds is likely this afternoon into Monday, mainly on the coastal waters S of Parramore Island. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for coastal waters S of Parramore Island, the Currituck Sound, and the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. These this afternoon in the southern coastal waters, sound, and bay and tonight in the northern waters. Have also raised Small Craft Advisories for the lower Chesapeake Bay (south of New Point Comfort) and the far northern coastal waters, starting late this afternoon in the bay and tonight for the far northern coastal waters. These higher winds will also increase the seas to 4-6 ft, potentially a ft or so higher S of the NC/VA border. SCAs may also be needed for the remainder of the Chesapeake Bay around sunrise Monday AM, but will let the next shift reevaluate. Winds will relax a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday with mainly sub- SCA winds in the forecast late next week. Seas will remain at 2-3 ft in the Ocean and 1-2 ft in the Bay this morning ahead of the wind surge. The persistent onshore flow will result in building seas later today into Monday, with 4 to 6 feet seas forecast by tonight and Monday (and continuing through Tuesday before slowly subsiding). Rip Currents: The rip current risk will remain moderate across the southern beaches tomorrow, with a low risk across the northern beaches. As winds increase and become more onshore, the moderate risk will expand to the northern beaches on Monday and Tuesday. A high risk is now expected at the southern beaches Monday and Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... August 2025 will make the top 10 list for the coolest Augusts on record at Richmond, Salisbury, and Elizabeth City. Based on the forecast for the 31st (Sunday`s) temperatures, the best estimation is: - RIC: 7th or 8th coolest on record, coolest August since 1992. - SBY: 3rd or 4th coolest on record, coolest August since 2008. - ECG: 3rd or 4th coolest on record, coolest August since 1996. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to noon EDT Monday for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ632. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ634-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ652-654. && $$ |
| #1243464 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 238 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Currently we are seeing most of the shower activity shifting south of I-4 and thats where most of activity should stay for the rest of the day. Looking at our Labor day Hi-Res models are showing a weak low trying to develop in the Atlantic along the front. This will warp around some slightly drier air to our area throughout the day. So instead of above normal PW we should see it around average. This will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon and evening with coverage a little lower then today. Moisture looks to increase again for Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread showers possible through the day as the front continues to sit across the area. A strong trough will push through Florida by the later half of the week which will help to push the front south. There is some difference in timing of this trough. With the Euro keeping the high moisture and PoPs in place through Thursday and the GFS going a little faster and lower PoPs for Thursday. Either way they both agree with lower moisture and only isolated storm chances for Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Most of the shower activity has shifted south of I-4 but kept thunderstorms in our northern TAF sites for a couple more hours. Southern TAF sites will have a better chance of storms through our evening hours. Storms chances look to be lower tomorrow and just outside of TAF times except for TPA. && .MARINE... Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Monday we will see slightly lower PoPs compared to our Sunday but we can still expect some scattered showers overnight and early tomorrow morning. However, a stall front will bring widespread shower back to the forecast for Tuesday through Thursday. Winds will generally stay below criteria however borderline Small Craft Exercise Caution will be possible Monday Night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Summertime convection and humidity will keep fire danger at a minimum. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 89 76 89 76 / 90 40 60 20 FMY 90 76 91 75 / 80 50 80 40 GIF 90 74 89 74 / 80 30 70 10 SRQ 90 75 91 74 / 80 50 60 40 BKV 88 72 88 71 / 80 30 50 10 SPG 87 77 88 76 / 80 50 60 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1243463 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 240 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in control through at least Thursday, bringing an extended stretch of dry weather and seasonably warm temperatures. Turns more humid by Friday, with an approaching cold front bringing showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Humid conditions and risk for showers may linger into Saturday ahead of the cold front, then cooler and drier weather returns next Sunday as the front moves off the coast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages: * Local seabreezes last through this afternoon. Quiet night with mid to high level cloud cover building in. High pressure continues to dominate the pattern, keeping the rest of today and tonight dry. Some mid to high level clouds build in tonight as some moisture aloft advects in from the south. With winds becoming light and clouds building in, a more mild night is ahead tonight with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. East/southeast coastal areas may be even warmer with lows in the upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: * Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions continue with onshore winds With the surface high shifting into Maine, NE flow will kick in Monday morning and continue through the day. Coastal areas will be slightly cooler than the rest of the region as a result. Much of the interior can expect to see seasonable highs in the upper 70s, with some spots in the valleys reaching 80F. A shortwave over the Great Lakes region will close off and shift into the mid-Atlantic Monday. Moisture aloft from this circulating disturbance will move in over southern New England, leading to continued mid to high cloud cover. This is expected to clear through Monday night, aside from much of eastern MA, RI. Lows Monday night are expected to be mild much like tonight, ranging from the low 50s inland to the mid/upper 50s towards the eastern coastlines. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Messages: * Dry and seasonable Tue with somewhat warmer weather Wed & Thu * Increasing rain chances Thu night & Fri and turning more humid * Still somewhat humid Sat with some risk for showers, then cooler and drier Sunday Details: High pres remains in control through Wed and likely lasting into Thu as the high pres slowly moves offshore. Dry and near seasonable temps Tue with NE flow, then a slight warming trend Wed-Thu as the high moves offshore with S-SW flow developing which brings warmer low level temps into SNE. Highs should reach into the upper 70s- lower 80s with GEFS and EPS showing at least moderate probs of temps 80+ away from the south coast. Dry weather expected to last through Thu as next system will be slower to move in from the west As we move to the end of the week, a deep upper low will set up north of the Gt Lakes with somewhat amplified trough to the south across E-central US. Higher PWAT plume within the deep SW flow will advect northward into SNE leading to increasing chance of showers, especially Thu night into Fri as a shortwave rotating around the upper low acts on deep moisture plume and low level convergence. There is some instability present so a few t-storms will be possible as well. Not looking at heavy rainfall as ensembles only indicating low-moderate probs of 0.50" QPF. It will become somewhat humid Fri as higher PWAT air moves into the region with dewpoints climbing through the 60s. Looking ahead to the weekend, upper trough is still hanging back to the west and a shortwave and main frontal boundary still has to move through so can`t rule out another round of showers and chance of t- storms Sat. But timing of this boundary will determine the extent of the shower risk. Potential for warm and humid conditions Sat if we remain in the pre-frontal airmass, then it should turn cooler and drier Sunday as front moves offshore. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update: Rest of Today through Monday...High confidence. VFR through the period. Onshore winds kick back to SSW after 00z becoming light N/NNW later tonight. Light N flow acros the rest of the interior. Mid and high clouds move in overnight. A bit more in the way of high clouds for Monday but still VFR with NE winds around 5-10 kt. Monday Night through Tuesday...High confidence. VFR Monday night and Tuesday, but NE winds pick up a bit, especially along the SE coast. While winds are light northerly for most of southern New England, NE winds become around 10-15 kt for the east coast and around 15-20 kt for the Cape and Islands. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Monday Night...High confidence. Winds/seas remain below SCA criterion in this period. Light NE/E winds around 10-15 kt become light tonight. NE winds around 5-10 kt Monday, increasing to around 15-20 kt Mon night. Seas 4ft or less all waters. Tuesday...Moderate confidence. NE winds increase to near-SCA levels (around 20-25 kt) over the southeast waters, with seas nearing 4-6 ft. May need SCAs for waters adjacent to Cape Cod and the Islands. Possible risk of rip currents against east-facing beaches. Elsewhere, NE winds around 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt and seas 4 ft or less. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1243462 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:42 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 223 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure from the north will continue to maintain control through Tuesday, before weak low pressure likely impacts the area by the middle of next week. A weak cold front could then impact the area late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Latest surface analysis shows high pressure well to the north and northeast of the area, while the old frontal boundary is several hundred miles south of the area. The high pressure has allowed for a pseudo wedge pattern to take hold, with steady northeasterly flow keeping cooler temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon. Much of the same is expected through tonight and tomorrow. Pressure gradient remains in place between the high to the north, and then low pressure along the front to the south. Gusts decrease just a touch tonight, while cooler, drier air sinks into the area. Lows tonight range from the upper 50s inland to the lower 60s at the coast. Weak wedge pattern continues for Labor Day Monday. Some cirrus expected throughout the day, coupled with some scattered diurnal cumulus in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Cutoff upper low over NY/PA will open and lift while another, deeper low approaches the Great Lakes from the NW. The energy that kicks out the lead low will maintain cyclonic curvature aloft locally but the column appears too dry for any meaningful rain chances despite the gentle lift. The continued presence of surface high pressure to our north will keep temperatures a few degrees below normal by both day and night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Gradient eases Wednesday as the high to our north erodes in strength. A healthy shortwave rounding the base of the trough tries to draw some frontal moisture north towards the area but it gets absorbed into the flow almost completely. As the Great Lakes system spins with little movement there may be just enough energy rotating around it to draw a little moisture this far north. The largely failed attempt to pull moisture north into the area will continue until a cold front sweeps through on Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR through the 18Z TAF period. Stiff northeasterly breeze sticks around through the next 24 hours. Gusts likely calm by the evening at KFLO and KLBT, while gusts up to 15-18 kts may occasionally occur during the overnight hours. Gusts should become more widespread again towards the end of the period. Drier and cooler air spreads through the area tonight, so there shouldn`t be any fog or stratus concerns. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR with very brief restrictions possible due to a passing SHRA close to the coast. && .MARINE... Through Monday...Small Craft Advisory in place until midnight EDT Tuesday (i.e., Monday night into Tuesday morning). Stiff northeasterly wind continues through the entire period, with gusts up to 27 kts. Seas remain at 3-4 ft at the coast, with 5-6 ft waves found 20 nm offshore. Monday Night through Friday...Gradient between large high to our north and a front stalled to the south will be easing Monday night. Headlines still expected to be lowered but the abating trend will be slow, it will be Tuesday night before winds and seas drop below criteria more decidedly. The weakening high moves off the New England coast late Wed into Thu veering the winds, eventually attaining a more climatologically common southern component. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1243460 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:12 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 154 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 152 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A deep trough remains over the E CONUS, while a decaying stationary sfc boundary stretches across the northern half of the Florida peninsula and the northern Gulf waters. 18Z MFL sounding data was showing deep moisture over SoFlo with PWAT values above 2 inches, with model soundings also estimating PWAts around 2.0-2.5 inches for this afternoon, which is around the 80th percentile for the season. Deep tropical moisture will remain blocked to the north by the frontal boundary, supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The overall synoptic flow will continue to be driven by a westerly component dominating the 2-10 km atmospheric column. At the sfc, pressure gradients remain weak enough to keep a prevailing south-southwesterly weak flow in place, even becoming calm at times. Therefore, storm motion will be west-to- east, and placing the best chances for deep convection over the eastern half of SoFlo. POPs will be in the 70-75% range, with another round of weather expected today. Main lifting mechanism will again be sea breezes and outflow boundary collisions, resulting in lines of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms. Rainfall accumulations could reach the 2-3 inches range (isolated higher amounts possible) with the heaviest downpours, especially slow-moving cells. Therefore, main concern will be the potential for urban flooding over some of the Atlantic metro areas. Much of southeast Florida remains under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall each day through the rest of the long weekend. Expect high temps in the upper 80s to low 90s before cloud cover increases, while lows will again dip into the low-mid 70s overnight. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 149 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A prolonged period of unsettled weather will continue across South Florida as deep upper-level troughing remains established over the Eastern Seaboard. Satellite imagery early this morning shows the trough axis has ejected over the western Atlantic, while a corresponding surface boundary gradually drifts southward along the Florida peninsula. This should help enhance moisture advection along the column today. With this improved moisture profile and westerly flow in place, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible this afternoon, with activity starting to develop inland in the early afternoon hours, then progressing east towards the East Coast metro. Guidance suggests generally up to 1 inch across much of South Florida could be possible, with pockets of 1-2 inches along the East Coast metro, and up to 3 inches in isolated spots. One potential limiting factor to keep in mind will be the potential that the prevailing westerly flow could preclude the development of the Atlantic sea breeze this afternoon, which would reduce the possibility for convection to become pinned over the metro areas for prolonged periods, and thus limit the potential for higher rainfall accumulations. That being said, high-res models have shown spotty run-to-run consistency over the past several days, so confidence regarding the finer-scale details of this solution remains low. Nevertheless, given this discussion, and recent rainfall over the last few days, localized flooding concerns cannot be ruled out, and WPC is keeping much of South Florida under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall today, but widespread impacts appear unlikely at this time. On Monday, chances for widespread rainfall have trended downward, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms still forecast to develop, but concerns over flash flooding somewhat diminished. Highs this weekend will remain in the low-mid 90s, while lows could dip to the low-mid 70s overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 149 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 The period of unsettled weather looks to persist through much of the upcoming week as the upper-level trough lingers over the Eastern Seaboard, with several shortwave impulses moving through the flow. Repeated rounds of rainfall through mid-week will keep at least a marginal risk for localized flooding, especially along the East Coast metro where westerly flow will continue to focus activity. A weak surface low may develop and move across South FL on Tuesday, which could bring a temporary uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage. By late week, the upper trough is expected to gradually lift northward, which should begin to shift the pattern into next weekend. High temperatures through the extended period will generally range from the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the low-mid 70s across the interior and up to the upper 70s along the coasts. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 152 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Westerly 7-10 kts through around 01Z, then light and variable flow prevails tonight. Lingering showers or thunderstorms until around 01Z may still result in brief periods of MVFR/IFR, especially over the Atl terminals. Then VFR should prevail after 01Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 149 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Light westerly to southwesterly winds develop today across all local waters. Seas are expected at 2 feet or less across all local waters. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain possible each day, which may cause periods of locally gusty winds and rough seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 77 92 77 91 / 70 80 60 80 West Kendall 76 91 76 91 / 60 80 60 80 Opa-Locka 76 93 77 92 / 70 80 50 80 Homestead 76 91 76 91 / 70 80 60 80 Fort Lauderdale 76 91 77 91 / 70 80 60 80 N Ft Lauderdale 77 92 77 92 / 70 80 50 80 Pembroke Pines 76 93 77 93 / 70 80 50 80 West Palm Beach 76 91 77 91 / 70 80 50 80 Boca Raton 76 93 76 92 / 70 80 50 80 Naples 78 91 77 91 / 60 70 50 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243461 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:12 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 204 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend across the area through mid week while a stationary front lingers just off the coast. A cold front could pass through the region by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A deep layer upper trough will remain anchored over the eastern U.S. and into the Southeast through the period. At the surface, a wedge of high pressure will also stay in place, keeping low level northeast winds and below normal temperatures and humidity levels. The radar has been showing scattered light showers over the Atlantic waters, but these showers seem to diminish as they reach the relatively drier/more stable air over the land. There still could be a short lived shower or two near the coast, especially from Beaufort southward to the Savannah Area through the rest of the afternoon. Breezy northeast winds will continue, especially closer to the coast. Tonight: any showers near the coast are expected to die down, but could see them continue further out into the Atlantic waters. Northeast winds will become less breezy, but likely to continue at least 5-10 mph much of the night. Lows dropping back into the lower to mid 60s, upper 60s to near 70 closer to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Between dry, high pressure building into the region from the north and an coastal low meandering offshore, expect cool and pleasant weather on Monday and Tuesday. This drier air will keep precipitation chances almost to zero, with the greatest chance of rainfall (~20%) across Southeast Georgia in the afternoon. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal through the middle of the week as breezy east-northeasterly winds persist and high pressure builds into the region. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s inland and low 70s near the coastline. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As the surface high pressure shifts northeastward, an upper-lvl trough and associated cold front approaches the region from the northwest late this week, and could possibly bring unsettled conditions this weekend. Precipitation chances were kept on the lower end as uncertainty remains high this far out into the forecast. Temperatures will remain below normal through Wednesday night, and then near normal by the end of the week depending on the strength of the high pressure out ahead of the front. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18z Monday: expect VFR conditions to prevail all sites. A stray shower or two will be possible this afternoon, mainly near KSAV, with brief MVFR CIGS possible. Gusty northeast winds will decrease after sunset, but are expected to remain 8-12 knots much of the night, then become gusty again by late Monday morning. Precip. chances too low to mention tonight through 18z Monday. Extended Aviation Forecast: Expect mainly VFR through early this week. Brief flight restrictions are possible afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the middle of the week. && .MARINE... SCA conditions are expected to continue through tonight all waters as the pressure gradient remains tight over the coastal waters between a wedge of high pressure inland, and lower pressure well offshore. Scattered showers, possibly a thunderstorm, especially later night. Seas generally 4 to 8 feet, highest beyond 10 nm offshore. Monday through Friday: Breezy east-northeasterly winds will become rather gusty across the Atlantic until the middle of the week (w/ gusts up to 25 to 30 kts possible). Therefore, Small Craft Advisories will persist for all marine zones through at least Tuesday. Seas will will range from 5 to 7 ft, and then back down to 2 to 4 ft on Wednesday morning. By the end of the week, winds will switch more easterly as surface high pressure shifts offshore and a cold front approaches from the northwest. Rip Currents: Due to the increasing swell height/period and enhanced onshore flow, a moderate risk of rip currents has been issued for today and a high risk of rip currents has been issued for Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Persistent northeasterly flow will result in steadily building tidal departures through early in the week. As of right now, tides should fall short of minor flooding, however Monday and Tuesday could get close during the afternoon high tide cycle. This risk may extend into the middle of next week depending on how strong the pinched gradient gets. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ330. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ350-352-354. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1243459 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 201 PM AST Sun Aug 31 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * The heat spell is expected to continue this week, with a high likelihood of issuing an Extreme Heat Warning or Heat Advisory each day. * The risk of rip currents will remain low through at least Friday for most beaches in Puerto Rico, and through Friday for the US Virgin Islands, when the risk is forecast to become moderate for the exposed beaches of St. Croix. * Strong afternoon thunderstorms will develop each day across portions of PR and possibly downwind from the USVI. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday... Today we issued the fourth consecutive day of Extreme Heat Warnings for most coastal and urban locations. Thus, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands are still experiencing a heat spell, primarily due to the above-normal moisture content, southwesterly wind flow, and above-normal temperatures along the islands and surrounding waters. That same available moisture, combined with local effects, excessive daytime heating, and sea breeze variations, promotes the formation of showers and thunderstorms downwind from La Sierra de Luquillo and the US Virgin Islands, as well as along and west of the Cordillera Central. The strongest thunderstorms resulted in frequent lightning, torrential rainfall, and gusty winds. Winds were mainly from the easterly at 10 to 20 mph, with variations due to sea breezes. The east-southeasterly steering wind flow will promote the development of additional showers and thunderstorms along and to the north and west of the Cordillera Central, as well as downwind from La Sierra de Luquillo. Additionally, afternoon activity will develop downwind from the US Virgin Islands, spreading mainly into the surrounding waters. Meanwhile, the US Virgin Islands and PR`s southern coast, as well as locations without significant rain, will continue to experience extreme heat; thus, Extreme Heat Warnings will remain in effect for both PR and the US Virgin Islands through 5 PM AST. Rain activity will significantly diminish overnight, leaving calm weather conditions, but with warmer-than-normal minimum temperatures across the region. Please be advised that the ongoing heat spell is expected to persist through at least the middle of the week, especially in urban and coastal areas of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. This is supported by above-normal maximum temperatures at 925 MB, which model guidance suggests are values more than two standard deviations above the TJSJ 30-year climatology. Additional ingredients include above-normal daytime and nighttime temperatures, elevated moisture levels, and the weak east- southeasterly winds. As a result, we anticipate a Heat Risk to fluctuate between elevated and significant, which could increase the chances of heat-related illnesses, especially among vulnerable groups. We urge both residents and visitors to stay well- hydrated, limit strenuous activities during peak heat hours, avoid leaving children or pets inside vehicles, and wear lightweight, loose-fitting, light-colored clothing. The weather pattern for the upcoming nights will be influenced by above-normal sea surface temperatures, which will lead to the formation of scattered to numerous showers across the local waters. These showers will then move inland to affect the windward areas of PR and the USVI. During the day, we can expect a mix of sunshine and clouds, with passing showers in the windward locations, followed by afternoon convective activity. This afternoon`s activity will be intensified by incoming surges of moisture, excessive daytime heating, variations in the sea breeze, and local effects, resulting in frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and gusty winds. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday... A seasonal diurnal pattern is forecast during the second half of the workweek, as patches of moisture are steered towards the islands under east to east- southeast steering flow and weak mid to upper-level troughiness moves over the area. Precipitable water (PWAT) values will be at normal values for this time of the year, with afternoon convective activity reaching values above 2 inches. Current model guidance suggests widespread PWAT values reaching 2 inches during the weekend. A tropical wave will reach the islands on Saturday and its moisture will linger during the weekend. Current model guidance also suggests, an upper level low will also moving northeast of the islands late Saturday and Sunday. Overnight and morning passing showers will continue to affect the eastern region. Along with the above mentioned features, diurnal heating, orographic effects, east to east- southeast steering flow and sea breeze convergence will promote afternoon showers and t-storm activity, mainly over the interior to W-NW PR, as well as downwind of El Yunque and the local islands. Localized heavy downpours, lightning, and flooding risks will be possible with the afternoon activity. Per the August 31st 2 PM AST Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center, a tropical wave is now moving westward from the west coast of Africa, and has a low (30%) formation chance in the next 7 days. With 925 mb temperatures remaining above normal, up to elevated to possibly significant heat risk will remain during the period. Elevated to significant heat risks prompt the issuance of Heat Advisories and Extreme Heat Warnings, respectively. An elevated heat risk affects most individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. A significant heat risk affects anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) VFR conds will prevail today with occasional VCSH. However, afternoon SHRA/TSRA will develop along the Cordillera Central, NW- PR, and downwind from the USVI with VCTY near JSJ/JPS/JBQ/ISX/IST. JBQ will have periods of MVFR or even brief IFR conditions through 31/23z. We are forecasting a similar pattern for tomorrow. Expect ESE winds at 10-15 kt with higher gusts and sea breeze variations, becoming calm to light and variable after 23:00, similar to today after 01/13z. && .MARINE... A tropical wave moving away into the central Caribbean, a surface high pressure across the Central Atlantic, and a frontal boundary across the western Atlantic will promote an east-southeast moderate wind flow across the islands through at least the middle of the week. Afternoon thunderstorms will develop each day across the western coastal waters of Puerto Rico and downwind from the US Virgin Islands. && .BEACH FORECAST... The risk of rip currents will remain low in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands through at least Friday, when we forecast a moderate risk of rip currents for the exposed beaches of St. Croix. Be aware that thunderstorms may impact the western and northern regions of Puerto Rico through this evening. Although the overall risk of rip currents is expected to remain low during the forecast period, isolated but stronger rip currents may occur in specific areas, especially near piers, jetties, and channels. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...Extreme Heat Warning until 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001>005-007-008-010>013. VI...Extreme Heat Warning until 5 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ001- 002. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1243458 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 146 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 1221 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Northeast surge of winds will continue to work its way southward through this afternoon and evening, pushing the frontal boundary south of the region into Central Florida, while high pressure nudges southward down the SE US coastline. This will continue to set up convergent bands of locally heavy rainfall along the Atlantic Coastal counties and I-95 corridor from metro JAX southward through St. Johns/Flagler counties, so far still counting on these to be transient enough to lessen any widespread Flooding issues and will hold off on Flood Watch for now, but with 2-4 inch rainfall amounts possible over the next 48-72 hours with isolated higher amounts around 6 inches, this may be required if the NE surge of winds does not push the low level convergence bulls-eye further down the NE FL coastline. Breezy conditions have already developed for all areas with sustained winds around 15 mph with gusts around 25 mph, while windy conditions are expected closer to the immediate Atlantic Coast and St. Johns River Basin with sustained winds of 20-25 mph with peak winds of 30-40 mph expected, but still remaining just below Wind Advisory criteria. Diurnal heating into the lower/middle 80s over inland areas should still be enough to trigger scattered showers and isolated storms over inland NE FL where enough deep moisture still remains with PWATs in the 1.6 to 2.0 inch range. Convection over inland areas will fade after sunset, leaving just numerous showers and embedded/isolated storms continue over the Atlantic Coastal waters and into the NE FL coastal counties with occasional convergent rain bands from time to time from JAX southward along the entire NE FL coastline. Further inland partial clearing and slightly drier airmass will support low temps down into the middle 60s across inland SE GA and upper 60s/lower 70s across inland NE FL and generally middle 70s along the Atlantic Coastal areas. While some low level stratus is expected at times over inland areas, the elevated NE winds inland at 5-10 mph will reduce the chance of fog formation, while breezy winds at 15-20G30 mph will continue along the entire NE FL/SE GA coastline through the night. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1221 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 High pressure will build down the east coast of the US Monday, as the frontal zone sinks toward southern FL. A weak inverted trough will be along the coast, resulting in enhanced winds at area beaches. Drier air will keep interior SE GA dry, with highest precipitation chances over coastal NE FL. This pattern will persist through Tuesday night. While the greatest chance for precipitation will be during the heating of the day, the moist onshore flow could keep chances going through the night, especially at the coast. Temperatures will trend below normal this period. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1221 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 As the high builds more toward the north northeast Wednesday, the frontal zone will lift back north across the area. As the front moves back into area, moisture will increase, resulting in higher precipitation chances. The high will move further away to the northeast Wednesday night into Thursday, as the frontal zone largely dissipates. With the front not as much of a factor, Thursday is expected to be a little drier day. High pressure will be to the northeast Friday. A weak cold front will move southeast into area over the weekend. Precipitation chances from Friday through Sunday are expected to range from isolated to scattered. Temperatures will trend near to a little above normal this period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 144 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Gusty NE winds 15G25 knots have developed at all coastal TAF sites from JAX eastward and expect MVFR CIGS and occasional heavy IFR VSBYS in SHRAs at JAX/CRG/SGJ through the 22Z time frame, before activity shifts inland and impacts VQQ/GNV in the 20-24Z time frame, for now have left out TSRA activity as probs too low, but may be needed at GNV later this afternoon. At the SSI terminal, the NE winds have increased to 18G28 knots but rainfall will remain mostly south of the terminal through the period as MVFR CIGS and gusty NE winds continue. Rain chances will diminish at inland TAF sites of GNV/VQQ after sunset leaving lower MVFR CIGS along with NE winds decreasing below 10 knots, while gusty NE winds at 12-13G18-20 knots at CRG/JAX through the night with 15G25 knots at SGJ through the period with continuous rainfall and likely MVFR CIGS as well. && .MARINE... Issued at 1221 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 High pressure to the north of the region will wedge down the southeastern seaboard through tonight, continuing a surge of northeasterly winds and building seas across our local waters. Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through early Tuesday. Waves of showers and embedded thunderstorms will impact our local waters through midweek. Northeasterly winds will begin to gradually weaken late Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing for seas to gradually subside. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will then decrease later this week as prevailing winds shift to westerly ahead of a series of approaching cold fronts. Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents will continue Monday and Tuesday in the Northeast flow pattern with surf/breakers reaching into the 4-6 ft range at times, but at this time still expected to remain below high surf advisory criteria of 7 feet. Minor to locally Moderate beach erosion can be expected at times of high tide, but coastal flooding is not expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1221 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Will continue to monitor heavy rainfall potential along the I-95 corridor and Atlantic Coastal Counties of NE FL through the entire Labor Day weekend and the possibility of Flood Watch issuance as still expecting 2-4 inch rainfall totals over the next 2 to 3 days in this corridor with locally higher amounts up to 6 inches possible. Middle St. Johns River Basin south of JAX to Palatka vicinity will continue to run at elevated/Action stage water levels as the Northeast flow pattern traps some of the higher water levels in the basin. Minor flooding will be possible in the Putnam county areas if this pattern lingers into the Monday/Tuesday time frame with water levels reaching 1.5 ft above MHHW, but too early to issue any Coastal Flood Advisory products at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 65 84 63 86 / 20 0 0 10 SSI 74 83 72 84 / 30 20 10 30 JAX 72 84 71 86 / 40 40 10 50 SGJ 75 84 74 86 / 60 60 30 60 GNV 71 86 69 88 / 30 30 0 40 OCF 72 86 71 88 / 30 40 0 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for AMZ450-452-470- 472. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for AMZ454-474. && $$ |
| #1243457 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1248 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 - Localized heavy rain continues through the weekend. A slight risk of excessive rain (threat level 2 of 4) is in place today. A marginal risk for excessive rain (threat level 1 of 4) continues on Labor Day. - Tranquil conditions expected mid-week as drier air filters into the region. Potential for showers and storms may start to work back in late in the week or during the upcoming weekend. - High temperatures will be in the 80s today and in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Monday. Temperatures will rise into the mid 90s by mid-week. At night, lows should gradually slide through the 70s towards the upper 60s inland as the drier air filters in. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A weak frontal boundary will continue to push towards the coastal areas of Southeast TX today while the mid-level high pressure continues to shift a little more west. A few vort maxes will also pass overhead today and with plenty of moisture to work with from the surface through the mid-levels, it will be of no surprise to see the development of showers and thunderstorms. We already had several clusters of showers and thunderstorms develop over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region this morning and we can expect these showers and thunderstorms to continue to progress southward throughout the day today. Chance for showers and thunderstorms will decrease later tonight as diurnal heating and instability decreases while the frontal boundary moves over the coastal waters, although, we may still see some isolated activity at times throughout the night. The active weather pattern is expected to persist into Monday as the frontal boundary meanders over the coastal waters. Although there is a chance for at least isolated showers over much of the region on Monday, the higher chances are expected to be focused mainly over areas near and south of I-10. So, are we at risk for flooding today into Monday? It is reasonable to say that we will have to see what locations the heavy rains set up, the storm movement, and how saturated the soils become. As of this morning, the GOES Imagery indicate total precipitable water amounts between 2.1 to 2.4 inches over much of Southeast TX and with a reasonable amount of moisture along the mid-levels, it will be of no surprise if stronger storms continue to produce heavy rainfall with rain rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour (as we have observed from this morning). The speed at which these storms move will also be a significant factor regarding the potential for higher accumulations over a short time period. This could lead to flooding issues along roadways as well as low lying and poor drainage areas, in particular over more urban regions. WPC has continued as a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall (level 2 of 4) across all of Southeast TX through late tonight. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) continues for much of Southeast TX on Monday, although an upgrade to Slight Risk may not be out of the question for some of our coastal locations. Make sure to check the radar imagery and traffic conditions before you begin your commute this holiday weekend. Strong storms will be capable of also producing frequent lightning and gusty winds...make sure to have an alternative option for outdoors activities. Remember, when thunder roars, head indoors. Some isolated activity may remain over areas near and south of I-10 on Tuesday as the coastal boundary finally progresses further into the Gulf in response to a dry reinforcing frontal boundary approaching the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region. By late Tuesday night, chance for rain ends as drier air moves pushes into Southeast TX. A dry weather pattern is expected to persist into the end of the work week. Rain chance may return during the upcoming weekend. With respect to temperatures, we will see high temperatures generally in the 80s today and in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Monday. Temperatures will then rise back into the lower 90s by Tuesday and the lower to mid 90s by Thursday. As for the low temperatures, we will begin to feel those cooler nighttime temperatures Tuesday night into Thursday night with lows dipping into the mid to upper 60s over areas north of I-10, the lower 70s over areas near and south of I-10, and the upper 70s along the coasts. Cotto && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 627 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 SGR at MVFR due to CIGs and all other sites at VFR. TSRA/SHRA making their way down from the north and inland from the Gulf this morning. Expect activity to continue through the morning, increasing in coverage this afternoon. Some storms could produce strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall as well as reduce VSBYs to MVFR/IFR levels. Winds will generally be light and variable through the period with the exception of winds associated with TSRA. Activity should come to an end this evening with VFR CIGs and light variable winds overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Generally light and variable winds with seas of 2 feet or less are expected through the upcoming weekend. A weak frontal boundary slowly moving southward over SE TX will bring scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms through Monday. The frontal boundary is expected to move into coastal waters later tonight into early Monday. Chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue on Tuesday as the front gradually moves deeper into the Gulf. Strong winds, frequent lightning, and elevated seas may occur in and near stronger storms. Large clusters of storms may result in moderate to strong winds for several hours over a larger scale and may need the issuance of Caution flags or Small Craft Advisories. Drier conditions are expected mid-week into the end of the work week as a drier airmass moves into Southeast TX in the wake of the front, however, isolated showers and thunderstorms may still develop at times. Cotto && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 82 73 89 72 / 80 30 40 10 Houston (IAH) 84 75 89 74 / 80 30 50 20 Galveston (GLS) 86 79 88 79 / 60 60 50 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243456 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1234 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 - Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning today and continuing into Tuesday. Greatest chances for rain are Monday into early Tuesday. - WPC has a Marginal to Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall across South TX through tonight. A Marginal Risk continues through Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 As expected, we are starting to see showers and thunderstorms develop, mainly over the Victoria Crossroads and along the coast. Our most recent sounding (08/31 at 00Z) showed PWAT values at 1.73 and current satellite estimates are around 2.0-2.2" in these areas, with drier air over the Brush Country and western Coastal Plains. There is still some question as to how far southwest the moisture will reach, but mesoscale models hint at some convection reaching as far west as Cotulla late tonight then continuing further south into portions of Webb County. Therefore, we still have 20-50% chance of PoPs across and west of the Brush Country, with a 40-70% chance over and east of the Coastal Plains tonight through Monday. WPC has included the Victoria Crossroads in a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for today and tonight. They then highlight a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall Monday and Monday night for the entire area. Localized flash flooding is possible in low-lying and poor drainage areas--especially in storms with high rainfall rates. As the boundary moves through the area Tuesday, rain chances will diminish and the main threat across the area returns, once again, to the heat. Temperatures will be "cooler" with precipitation and cloud cover Monday and Tuesday, leading to highs "only" in the 90s. By Wednesday, those will creep back up into the mid-90s along the coast to low 100s out west. South Texas summer is not really over, so continue to practice heat safety. Remember that heat stroke is an emergency. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Convection has already developed over VCT and is expected to continue, off and on, through tonight as it spreads to the south. Primarily, VFR conditions with MVFR to IFR conditions in and around any showers and thunderstorms. Winds will shift east then to the northeast/north tonight through Monday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Light to gentle (BF 2-3) southeast to east winds this afternoon and evening will become gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) northeast and north winds tonight through Tuesday. A medium (40-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening through Tuesday before chances diminish through Tuesday night. Winds will return to onshore flow late Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 91 75 92 / 30 70 50 40 Victoria 74 90 72 94 / 50 70 30 20 Laredo 78 98 75 94 / 20 60 60 40 Alice 75 93 74 95 / 20 70 50 40 Rockport 77 90 77 92 / 40 70 50 30 Cotulla 77 93 75 96 / 30 70 40 20 Kingsville 76 93 74 92 / 20 70 50 40 Navy Corpus 81 89 80 89 / 40 60 60 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243455 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1224 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Upper troughing remains persistent across the eastern CONUS with our forecast area residing on the backside of this trough and northwest flow aloft prevailing. This will help to keep the forecast primarily dry across the area through next weekend, with only an isolated shower or storm Tuesday into Wednesday afternoons when a pair of shortwaves moves over the area rounding the base of the trough. Overall highs will remain seasonable in the middle to upper 80`s through Monday, warming slightly to upper 80`s and lower 90`s for the rest of the week. Overnight lows will dip into the middle to upper 60`s tonight, cooling even further Monday night into the lower to middle 60`s. Middle to upper 60`s can be expected each night the rest of the week into the weekend, with lower 70`s along the immediate coast. A moderate risk of rip currents will continue through Tuesday, becoming a low risk Wednesday through Friday. MM/25 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Northeasterly winds of around 5 to 10 knots will continue through the period. /96 && .MARINE... Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A light to moderate northeasterly flow continues today, becoming a moderate to occasionally strong northeasterly to easterly flow tonight into Monday morning. A light to moderate easterly flow becomes established for Monday afternoon through Tuesday. A light diurnal flow returns for Wednesday evening through the weekend with onshore flow during the afternoon into evening hours and offshore flow late overnight into the morning hours each day. Small craft should exercise caution over the open gulf waters tonight into Monday morning. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 69 88 67 87 67 89 69 91 / 0 10 10 20 10 20 10 10 Pensacola 72 88 70 87 70 88 71 90 / 10 20 10 20 10 20 10 10 Destin 73 88 71 87 73 87 73 88 / 10 10 10 20 20 20 10 10 Evergreen 66 89 61 89 63 91 65 92 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 10 10 Waynesboro 66 88 63 88 64 89 65 90 / 0 0 0 10 10 20 10 10 Camden 66 87 63 88 64 87 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 10 10 Crestview 66 87 63 88 65 89 67 91 / 0 10 0 10 10 20 10 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243454 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:39 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 136 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .NEAR TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 128 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 There is a stationary front to our south in the northern Gulf that is expected to slowly drift further south in time. This, along with upper level troughing, will keep precip to our south over the marine zones. Northeasterly flow at the surface, due to surface high pressure along the Apalachians, will limit the seabreeze to the coast today. PoPs are highest for the extreme SE Florida Big Bend at 40-60 percent. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s this afternoon and cool to the upper 60s tonight. The upper level troughing extends south on Monday; which will push the stationary boundary further south into the Gulf. This will also lower PoPs from the coastal regions with about a 30-40 percent chance for showers/thunderstorms in the southeast Big Bend. High temperatures on Monday will be in the upper 80s. Northeast flow continues with speeds of around 10-15 mph. && .SHORT TERM & LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 128 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Mid-level troughing is forecast to remain in place over the eastern CONUS through much of the upcoming week before gradually beginning to lift northward. Generally dry offshore flow is expected to continue for the most part this week, keeping the forecast relatively warm and dry. A few showers and storms will be possible each afternoon, but offshore flow should keep them confined pretty close to the coast. A dry reinforcing front could push through the area mid to late week, but not much meaningful change is expected to be felt from it. Fairly seasonable temperatures are expected with highs in the 80s warming to the low/mid 90s by mid to late week. Low temperatures similarly start out in the mid 60s to near 70 before gently warming into the upper 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 128 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Showers with maybe a few rumbles of thunder may be possible around the VLD terminal tomorrow afternoon but, confidence is too low at the moment to include into the TAF. Northeast flow will continue through the period with winds around 5-10 kts, with gusts up to 20 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 128 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A frontal boundary over the nearshore waters will continue to settle further south into the Gulf into Tuesday. Northeasterly winds will be light through the rest of the day today but will likely increase tonight into Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens. This could lead to periods of cautionary or advisory conditions, especially in the Gulf waters west of Apalachicola. The frontal boundary moves east Wednesday with winds decreasing and becoming generally westerly later in the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 128 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 As we head into the start of the week, drier air moves in. However, RH values are expected to remain well above critical with MinRH around 40 to 50 percent. Northeast flow will prevail through the week with speeds around 10-15 mph for the Transport winds on Monday, then decreasing to 5-10 mph for the rest of the week. Dispersions for Monday will be high for many districts in the FL Panhandle, Big Bend, and AL Wiregrass regions. Fair to moderate afternoon dispersions can be expected afterwards into midweek. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 As the frontal system slides south the higher rainfall totals will move south with it. Some rain is possible across the southeast Big Bend this afternoon but rainfall totals will be light and no hydrological concerns are anticipated. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 69 86 66 88 / 10 10 0 10 Panama City 71 89 69 89 / 10 10 10 20 Dothan 65 86 62 87 / 0 0 0 10 Albany 65 86 63 87 / 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 67 86 64 88 / 10 10 0 10 Cross City 71 88 69 90 / 30 30 0 30 Apalachicola 72 87 71 85 / 30 20 20 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM CDT Monday for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1243452 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 130 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025 - Persistent troughing over the eastern U.S. will periodically enhance shower and storm coverage through mid week. - A low risk of excessive rainfall exists each day, particularly in areas that see repeated rounds of showers and storms. - Developing onshore flow will lead to a moderate risk for rip currents at area beaches; surf conditions are expected to deteriorate further on Labor Day, especially from Cape Canaveral northward. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 An anomalous trough over the eastern CONUS persists, maintaining generally westerly flow aloft across the state. At the surface, a nearly stationary front stretches across the northern Gulf Coast into the western Atlantic. Atmospheric moisture remains plentiful to the south of this boundary, with GOES derived precipitable water indicating 1.9 - 2.1" across the peninsula (between the 75th and 90th percentile for this time of year). Some subtle changes to the local pattern are anticipated today as shortwave energy aloft induces weak low pressure over the Atlantic. Developing north/northeast flow on the lows` backside will act to push the stalled front a bit further south. Meanwhile, continued west winds aloft will favor the eastern half of the peninsula for diurnally-driven convection this afternoon and evening. Convective allowing models are offering some hints into storm evolution today, though uncertainty is higher than usual given the anomalous pattern. Guidance suggests initial scattered nocturnal development over the eastern Gulf will move onshore the Nature Coast later this morning. From there, activity is expected to translate toward central and southern portions of the forecast area (from about Kissimmee to Melbourne south), increasing in coverage as it does so. Across northern areas, onshore flow developing within north to northeast surface flow should trigger scattered showers and storms separately. Attempted to show a slight variation to the PoP distribution today with 55 - 60% across the north, increasing to 70% across southern areas. As activity pushes offshore the Treasure Coast this evening, we`ll need to be on the lookout for onshore-moving showers and isolated storms from around Cape Canaveral northward overnight. Monday...The surface boundary will have likely shifted a bit further south over the area, closer to Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. This should induce onshore flow across most of the forecast area despite continued westerly flow aloft courtesy of the persistent eastern U.S. trough. Above normal rain chances are maintained, with morning coastal showers and storms spreading inland through the day. Of note, beach conditions are expected to become increasingly poor on the holiday given the increasing onshore flow, particularly north of Cape Canaveral. A building swell will likely induce a high risk for rip currents in these areas. Tuesday-Saturday...Both deterministic and ensemble guidance remain in good agreement through the end of the week, with an unusually strong signal for a reinforcing trough over the eastern CONUS. In fact, ECMWF and NAEFS ensembles show standardized height anomalies of -3 to -4 sigma centered over the midwest Thursday and Friday. Weak perturbations embedded within the base of the trough will translate across the Gulf from time to time through at least mid week, continuing the trend of unsettled conditions. While convective chances remain highest in the afternoon and evening, precip cannot be ruled out during the overnight given onshore flow and an active pattern aloft. Late in the week, as the trough axis shifts over the eastern seaboard, models hint at some modest drying aloft across our northern zones. While any hints of a cool down are likely to remain to our north (its still too early to talk cold fronts), a sharp north-to-south precip gradient is likely to occur. && .MARINE... Issued at 141 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Today...A weak surface boundary will settle southward over the local waters today, inducing north to northeast flow over the Volusia waters. Here, a small swell of of up to 3 - 4 feet will develop toward sunset. Mariners should be alert for thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds, with a better chance for offshore-movings storms south of Cape Canaveral. Monday-Wednesday...Unsettled conditions continue as deep moisture and a stationary boundary remain parked over the local waters - leading to above normal chances of showers and thunderstorms. Deteriorating marine conditions are forecast given strengthening northeast winds, up to 15-20 knots north of Cape Canaveral. Seas building to 3 - 5 feet (up to 6 feet offshore Volusia). Conditions improve some Wednesday as the surface boundary lifts back to the north and our local gradient weakens. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 130 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 VCTS/VCSH ongoing through the remainder of the afternoon as a stalled boundary remains north of east central Florida. TEMPOs in place at SFB through 19Z and from TIX southward through 22Z for VIS and CIG reductions due to TSRA. Adjustments to timing may be needed as the day evolves. Activity is forecast to diminish into the late evening hours, with VCSH ongoing through 06Z. Winds remain light out of the NNE, picking back up after 15Z around 10 knots with gusts to 20 knots possible. VCTS/VCSH returns to the forecast after 15Z at all terminals as the area remains under an active weather pattern. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 85 74 86 / 50 70 40 60 MCO 75 87 74 88 / 40 70 20 70 MLB 75 87 76 88 / 50 70 40 70 VRB 73 88 74 89 / 60 70 40 70 LEE 74 86 74 88 / 30 60 20 60 SFB 75 86 74 87 / 40 70 20 60 ORL 75 86 74 88 / 40 60 20 60 FPR 71 89 73 89 / 60 70 40 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1243450 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1223 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1216 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 -Heat continues to be a concern especially for tomorrow with a Moderate (level 2 out of 4) to Major (level 3 out of 4) Heat Risk. -Rain chances increase for tomorrow and Tuesday. -The Weather Prediction Center continues to highlight northern portions of Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, and Kenedy counties in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall for tomorrow. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 The main concern for the remainder of the holiday weekend continues to be the heat. As a mid-level ridge continues to linger over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, and low-level southerly to southeasterly flow continues bring in more low-level moisture into the region. These factors result in higher temperatures and higher heat indices as well. With nearly a majority of the CWA in a major (level 3 of 4) heat risk, and the rest of the region in a moderate (level 2 of 4). With the range of the heat indices in the range of 105 to 110 for today and tomorrow, additional Special Weather Statements could be issued for elevated heat indices. For resources on staying safe in the heat, visit weather.gov/heatsafety. With the previously mentioned mid-level ridge over the area, the chances for rain will remain low (less than 20%) for today. However, a frontal boundary is expected to move southward and stall towards the north of the CWA by tomorrow afternoon. With the southerly to southeasterly low-level moisture flow expected at this time, there will be an opportunity for moisture to pool ahead of the boundary and allow for the development of showers and thunderstorms. Add in some instability from the diurnal heating as well, and the environment is capable of producing some showers and thunderstorms. Current rain chances for tomorrow afternoon and Tuesday remain around medium (40-50%). WPC has a small portion of the Northern Ranchlands in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4). While the environmental conditons seem favorable, the key to the forecast for the rain will be where the frontal boundary stalls out. Should the frontal boundary stall out further north, then the chances for rain will decrease for tomorrow and Tuesday afternoon. Further updates on this developing situation are expected. The frontal boundary is expected to finally move through the region Tuesday afternoon. At this point, the temperatures are not expected to change much with this frontal passage, but the winds are expected to shift towards the north after the frontal passage. Most of next week generally has low rain chances (less than 30%). Most showers and thunderstorms will be related to any sort of seabreeze activity. There is some model guidance that suggests that another front may try to move through the region late next week. The latest model guidance does bring the chances of rain up to a medium chance (40- 60%) for next weekend, however further forecast shifts will need to continue to monitor the model trends to see how the forecast continues to evolve. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF cycle at all TAF sites. Southerly to southeasterly winds are expected for the period and should generally remain light. Some low-level clouds are expected as well with the current flow pattern. && .MARINE... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Generally favorable conditions with mostly light to moderate southerly to southeasterly winds and low to moderate seas. Medium chances (40-50%) of rain are expected for tomorrow afternoon and Tuesday as a frontal boundary stalls out towards the north. By late Tuesday into Wednesday, the front is expected to push through in the Lower Texas Coast and the winds are expected to turn to towards the north while remaining light to moderate. The winds should return to the south fairly quickly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 79 95 79 95 / 10 40 40 70 HARLINGEN 75 97 75 95 / 0 50 50 70 MCALLEN 79 101 79 97 / 0 40 50 70 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 101 77 96 / 0 30 60 60 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 89 80 88 / 10 40 50 60 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 93 77 92 / 10 40 50 60 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243449 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 119 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in control through at least Thursday, bringing an extended stretch of dry weather, seasonable temperatures and northeast breezes. Northeast winds may become a little stronger on Tuesday for southeast New England as low pressure passes well east of the benchmark. Turns warmer and a little more humid by Friday, with a cold front bringing a welcomed rain. High pressure returns for the weekend, bringing Cooler temperatures and dry weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 230 AM Update: Key Messages: * Mostly sunny and dry with seasonable temps, although with seabreezes near the coasts. Highs 70s with lows in the upper 40s to the mid 50s. Details: No substantive change to the large-scale pattern driving our weather, with the main features being a deamplifying upper low over northeast ME and sfc ridging extending SE into southern New England from a large 1024 mb high pressure over northern Wisconsin. For most away from the coast, light winds and a cool airmass is allowing for current temps more reminiscent of early Fall with values in the 40s to lower 50s. Otherwise, dry weather continues to govern with low precipitable water values. Expect another day of dry weather, plenty of sun and seasonable temperatures to mark the close to August today. Only difference is that winds will be lighter and turn onshore as we move into the late morning to early afternoon, keeping coastal areas a few degrees cooler than well inland. Highs reaching into the 70s with full sun with upper 70s/near 80 CT Valley, but in the low 70s near the coasts with a light onshore breeze. Mostly clear and dry weather tonight too for the majority of Southern New England. While light, may be just enough of an onshore wind to keep temps slightly milder for the southern coasts. Upper-level moisture may also advect northward leading to some increased high clouds for the southern roughly third of Southern New England. Lows upper 40s to mid 50s, with mid/upper 50s near the southeast coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 230 AM Update: Key Messages: * Onshore flow continues Mon and Tue but still dry with seasonable temps. * NE winds increase on Tue over southeast MA and the Cape/Islands to around 15-20 mph. * Borderline, but monitoring for possible rip currents against east- facing beaches Tue as low pressure passes well east of 40N/70W. Details: Monday and Tuesday: Sfc high pressure will shift into ME on Monday and remain in place through Tuesday. This will keep an onshore NE flow going, with somewhat milder but still seasonable temps inland and cooler temps near the eastern coasts. A shortwave disturbance aloft seen on early- morning water vapor imagery near NW Ohio digs southeast today and closes off over the mid-Atlantic states tonight, which then rotates N/NW into NY/western New England by early on Tue. What this feature will do for Monday is draw a stream of mid to upper-level moisture northward, leading to a more filtered-sun look but it`s otherwise a continued dry day with deep dry air seen on model forecast soundings. Highs on Monday in the 70s, except low 70s near the coast. For Tuesday, a weak low pressure currently off the Carolinas is forecast to pass well east of 40N/70W, with pretty strong model consensus on that track. With sfc high pressure still in control, expect another day of dry weather and seasonable for the majority of Southern New England. For southeast New England though, and especially for Cape Cod and the Islands, with a tightening gradient, expect a bit stronger northeast breezes to around 15-20 mph. Something we`ll be watching for Tuesday too is the potential for rip currents on the east-facing coasts of Cape Cod and Nantucket, as this low pressure passes well to our east; it`s borderline, but it`s notable that the ECMWF model shows offshore waves building to about 6 ft Tuesday. With beaches becoming unguarded, we might need to consider a rip current statement at worst, but forecast wave heights look too low for high surf advisories. Otherwise, highs should again reach into the 70s, though it may be a struggle to reach the low 70s with the breezes over southeast MA and the Cape/Islands. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages: * Dry weather, seasonable temps with seabreezes through at least Thurs. * Brief warming trend Fri and turning a little more humid, as cold front is likely to bring welcomed rains. * Cooling off and turning less humid into the weekend. Details: Still under high pressure with dry and seasonable weather through Thursday. Thus, expect a continuation of the same themes with seasonable temps, dry weather, plenty of sun during the day and clear skies/cooler nights. Looks to turn a little more humid, but not oppressively so, as we move into late Thurs and Fri, due to increased southerly flow ahead of a digging upper low over the Gt Lakes. Its related sfc frontal system looks to arrive on Fri and taps into a subtropical airmass in the southerly flow (PWATs around 1.5 inches, which are about 2 standard deviations above normal). Thus we should see a pretty decent and welcomed rainfall with PoPs in the high chance to Likely range. We then dry out and cool off again for the weekend. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update: Rest of Today through Monday...High confidence. VFR through the period. Onshore winds kick back to SSW after 00z becoming light N/NNW later tonight. Light N flow acros the rest of the interior. Mid and high clouds move in overnight. A bit more in the way of high clouds for Monday but still VFR with NE winds around 5-10 kt. Monday Night through Tuesday...High confidence. VFR Monday night and Tuesday, but NE winds pick up a bit, especially along the SE coast. While winds are light northerly for most of southern New England, NE winds become around 10-15 kt for the east coast and around 15-20 kt for the Cape and Islands. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Thursday/... Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Monday Night: High confidence. Winds/seas below SCA criterion in this period. Light N winds become NE/E today around 10-15 kt, becoming light tonight. NE winds around 5-10 kt Monday, increasing to around 15-20 kt Mon night. Seas 4ft or less all waters. Tuesday: Moderate confidence. NE winds increase to near-SCA levels (around 20-25 kt) over the southeast waters, with seas nearing 4-6 ft. May need SCAs for waters adjacent to Cape Cod and the Islands. Possible risk of rip currents against east-facing beaches. Elsewhere, NE winds around 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt and seas 4 ft or less. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Thursday/... Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1243448 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 117 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Continued dry and very pleasant conditions are expected with below average temperatures today into mid week. A cold front approaches late week with slightly warmer temperatures and a chance for showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 220 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Remaining dry today, becoming breezy along the coast of SE VA and NE NC. Remaining dry with below normal temperatures once again today, though with sfc high pressure slowly building E-SE from the Great Lakes, and a developing sfc trough off the Carolina coast, NE winds increase across SE VA and NE NC, especially near the coast, with gusts in the 20-25 mph range by late morning into the afternoon. The upper trough approaches from the NW with a low amplitude short wave moving through the base of the larger trough, resulting in more clouds by afternoon/evening. High temperatures look to be primarily in the mid to upper 70s with dew points from the upper 40s/lower 50s NW to the upper 50s in the SE. Clouds thin out overnight with temps in the low 50s W and NW to the low/mid 60s SE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 AM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - Streak of abnormally cool and dry August weather continues Monday and Tuesday. Basically a persistence forecast Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 70s to low 80s and dew points in the 50s. Remaining breezy near the coast Monday as coastal low pressure deepens offshore. Think the low remains far enough offshore to keep rain chances out of the area but there could be a stray shower or two near the northern OBX Monday afternoon. Mostly sunny for most of the area with more clouds expected SE/closer to the coastal trough/low. Temperatures will be similar on Tuesday with some afternoon cumulus clouds. Cool and dry again Tuesday night with lows back into the 50s and low 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 220 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Continued dry on Wednesday with slightly higher temps and humidity. - Chance for showers and maybe a few storms returns Thursday into Friday as a front approaches the region from the west and potentially interacts with a weak coastal low. High pressure over the region moves offshore on Wednesday, allowing winds to swing around to the SE and S. Temperatures increase into the low 80s for much of the area with dew points increasing into the mid and upper 50s to low 60s. Latest guidance keeps the area dry overnight with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Clouds increase on Thursday with a slight chance for showers across most of the area, slightly higher in the Piedmont and along the SE coastal counties as the surface cold front and another coastal trough interact. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s with a modest increase in humidity as dew points creep back into the low and mid 60s. Chance for showers continues into Thursday night and Friday, especially across the northern half of the area. 00z guidance begins to diverge thereafter with the GFS keeping unsettled conditions into the upcoming weekend while the ECMWF is dry and comfortable. Will stick close to the blended guidance, keeping temps in the upper 70s to low 80s Friday and Saturday with overnight lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 115 PM EDT Sunday... VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/31 TAF period. Partly cloudy skies prevail over the terminals with both high CI and SCT CU. Skies clear out tonight, with SCT CU possible Monday afternoon. NE winds remain gusty (to ~20 kt) near the coast through this evening before diminishing to ~10 kt tonight. Wind gusts to 20 kt are likely near the coast once again starting Mon AM. At RIC, winds become light tonight before increasing back to ~10 kt on Monday. Outlook: VFR conditions persist, with dry weather through at least midweek. Winds diminish Mon night-Tue. && .MARINE... As of 220 AM EDT Sunday... - A prolonged period of elevated onshore flow is expected beginning this afternoon and continuing through Monday. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for a portion of the coastal waters and lower Chesapeake Bay this afternoon into Monday night. Early this morning, high pressure is centered north of the area (over the Great Lakes). Meanwhile, ~1012 mb low pressure is located just off the far northern FL/southern GA coast. Winds range from E to NE over the waters, with wind speed ~5 knots north to 10 to 15 knots south. Seas are running around 2 to 3 feet, and waves in the Chesapeake Bay 1 to 2 feet. High pressure will remain in place (slightly north of the area) into early this week. The area of low pressure that is currently located off the FL/GA coast will start to move further to the NE and develop off the Carolina Coast over the next day or so. The gradient between the high to our north and low to our south will tighten, leading to increased onshore flow, especially across our southern waters, starting this later this morning and continuing through at least Monday. Wind speeds will average 10 to 20 knots during this time (highest S), but a period of 15 to 20 knot (locally 20-25 knot) winds is likely this afternoon into Monday, mainly on the coastal waters S of Parramore Island. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for coastal waters S of Parramore Island, the Currituck Sound, and the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. These this afternoon in the southern coastal waters, sound, and bay and tonight in the northern waters. Have also raised Small Craft Advisories for the lower Chesapeake Bay (south of New Point Comfort) and the far northern coastal waters, starting late this afternoon in the bay and tonight for the far northern coastal waters. These higher winds will also increase the seas to 4-6 ft, potentially a ft or so higher S of the NC/VA border. SCAs may also be needed for the remainder of the Chesapeake Bay around sunrise Monday AM, but will let the next shift reevaluate. Winds will relax a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday with mainly sub- SCA winds in the forecast late next week. Seas will remain at 2-3 ft in the Ocean and 1-2 ft in the Bay this morning ahead of the wind surge. The persistent onshore flow will result in building seas later today into Monday, with 4 to 6 feet seas forecast by tonight and Monday (and continuing through Tuesday before slowly subsiding). Rip Currents: The rip current risk will remain moderate across the southern beaches tomorrow, with a low risk across the northern beaches. As winds increase and become more onshore, the moderate risk will expand to the northern beaches on Monday and Tuesday. A high risk is now expected at the southern beaches Monday and Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... August 2025 will make the top 10 list for the coolest Augusts on record at Richmond, Salisbury, and Elizabeth City. Based on the forecast for the 31st (Sunday`s) temperatures, the best estimation is: - RIC: 7th or 8th coolest on record, coolest August since 1992. - SBY: 3rd or 4th coolest on record, coolest August since 2008. - ECG: 3rd or 4th coolest on record, coolest August since 1996. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to noon EDT Monday for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ632. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ634-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ652-654. && $$ |
| #1243447 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1135 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New Discussion, Marine... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Upper troughing remains persistent across the eastern CONUS with our forecast area residing on the backside of this trough and northwest flow aloft prevailing. This will help to keep the forecast primarily dry across the area through next weekend, with only an isolated shower or storm Tuesday into Wednesday afternoons when a pair of shortwaves moves over the area rounding the base of the trough. Overall highs will remain seasonable in the middle to upper 80`s through Monday, warming slightly to upper 80`s and lower 90`s for the rest of the week. Overnight lows will dip into the middle to upper 60`s tonight, cooling even further Monday night into the lower to middle 60`s. Middle to upper 60`s can be expected each night the rest of the week into the weekend, with lower 70`s along the immediate coast. A moderate risk of rip currents will continue through Tuesday, becoming a low risk Wednesday through Friday. MM/25 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 705 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 VFR to MVFR ceilings will clear this morning with VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the period. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A light to moderate northeasterly flow continues today, becoming a moderate to occasionally strong northeasterly to easterly flow tonight into Monday morning. A light to moderate easterly flow becomes established for Monday afternoon through Tuesday. A light diurnal flow returns for Wednesday evening through the weekend with onshore flow during the afternoon into evening hours and offshore flow late overnight into the morning hours each day. Small craft should exercise caution over the open gulf waters tonight into Monday morning. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 69 88 67 87 67 89 69 91 / 0 10 10 20 10 20 10 10 Pensacola 72 88 70 87 70 88 71 90 / 10 20 10 20 10 20 10 10 Destin 73 88 71 87 73 87 73 88 / 10 10 10 20 20 20 10 10 Evergreen 66 89 61 89 63 91 65 92 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 10 10 Waynesboro 66 88 63 88 64 89 65 90 / 0 0 0 10 10 20 10 10 Camden 66 87 63 88 64 87 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 10 10 Crestview 66 87 63 88 65 89 67 91 / 0 10 0 10 10 20 10 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243446 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:30 PM 31.Aug.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1221 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 1221 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Northeast surge of winds will continue to work its way southward through this afternoon and evening, pushing the frontal boundary south of the region into Central Florida, while high pressure nudges southward down the SE US coastline. This will continue to set up convergent bands of locally heavy rainfall along the Atlantic Coastal counties and I-95 corridor from metro JAX southward through St. Johns/Flagler counties, so far still counting on these to be transient enough to lessen any widespread Flooding issues and will hold off on Flood Watch for now, but with 2-4 inch rainfall amounts possible over the next 48-72 hours with isolated higher amounts around 6 inches, this may be required if the NE surge of winds does not push the low level convergence bulls-eye further down the NE FL coastline. Breezy conditions have already developed for all areas with sustained winds around 15 mph with gusts around 25 mph, while windy conditions are expected closer to the immediate Atlantic Coast and St. Johns River Basin with sustained winds of 20-25 mph with peak winds of 30-40 mph expected, but still remaining just below Wind Advisory criteria. Diurnal heating into the lower/middle 80s over inland areas should still be enough to trigger scattered showers and isolated storms over inland NE FL where enough deep moisture still remains with PWATs in the 1.6 to 2.0 inch range. Convection over inland areas will fade after sunset, leaving just numerous showers and embedded/isolated storms continue over the Atlantic Coastal waters and into the NE FL coastal counties with occasional convergent rain bands from time to time from JAX southward along the entire NE FL coastline. Further inland partial clearing and slightly drier airmass will support low temps down into the middle 60s across inland SE GA and upper 60s/lower 70s across inland NE FL and generally middle 70s along the Atlantic Coastal areas. While some low level stratus is expected at times over inland areas, the elevated NE winds inland at 5-10 mph will reduce the chance of fog formation, while breezy winds at 15-20G30 mph will continue along the entire NE FL/SE GA coastline through the night. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1221 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 High pressure will build down the east coast of the US Monday, as the frontal zone sinks toward southern FL. A weak inverted trough will be along the coast, resulting in enhanced winds at area beaches. Drier air will keep interior SE GA dry, with highest precipitation chances over coastal NE FL. This pattern will persist through Tuesday night. While the greatest chance for precipitation will be during the heating of the day, the moist onshore flow could keep chances going through the night, especially at the coast. Temperatures will trend below normal this period. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1221 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 As the high builds more toward the north northeast Wednesday, the frontal zone will lift back north across the area. As the front moves back into area, moisture will increase, resulting in higher precipitation chances. The high will move further away to the northeast Wednesday night into Thursday, as the frontal zone largely dissipates. With the front not as much of a factor, Thursday is expected to be a little drier day. High pressure will be to the northeast Friday. A weak cold front will move southeast into area over the weekend. Precipitation chances from Friday through Sunday are expected to range from isolated to scattered. Temperatures will trend near to a little above normal this period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 714 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 LIFR CIGS at SSI/GNV/JAX/CRG/VQQ this morning will expand to SGJ as the NE wind surge pushes down the Atlantic Coast with best rainfall chances at the coastal TAF sites, while should be able to cover inland locations with VCSH. The increase in winds to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots will slowly lift CIGS back into MVFR levels through the afternoon hours. NE winds remain gusty at the coastal TAF sites with rainfall chances through tonight, while a lowering of CIGS back to IFR levels at GNV/VQQ/JAX expected later tonight time frame. && .MARINE... Issued at 1221 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 High pressure to the north of the region will wedge down the southeastern seaboard through tonight, continuing a surge of northeasterly winds and building seas across our local waters. Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through early Tuesday. Waves of showers and embedded thunderstorms will impact our local waters through midweek. Northeasterly winds will begin to gradually weaken late Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing for seas to gradually subside. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will then decrease later this week as prevailing winds shift to westerly ahead of a series of approaching cold fronts. Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents will continue Monday and Tuesday in the Northeast flow pattern with surf/breakers reaching into the 4-6 ft range at times, but at this time still expected to remain below high surf advisory criteria of 7 feet. Minor to locally Moderate beach erosion can be expected at times of high tide, but coastal flooding is not expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1221 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Will continue to monitor heavy rainfall potential along the I-95 corridor and Atlantic Coastal Counties of NE FL through the entire Labor Day weekend and the possibility of Flood Watch issuance as still expecting 2-4 inch rainfall totals over the next 2 to 3 days in this corridor with locally higher amounts up to 6 inches possible. Middle St. Johns River Basin south of JAX to Palatka vicinity will continue to run at elevated/Action stage water levels as the Northeast flow pattern traps some of the higher water levels in the basin. Minor flooding will be possible in the Putnam county areas if this pattern lingers into the Monday/Tuesday time frame with water levels reaching 1.5 ft above MHHW, but too early to issue any Coastal Flood Advisory products at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 66 84 63 86 / 10 10 0 10 SSI 73 83 73 83 / 20 40 20 30 JAX 72 84 71 85 / 30 60 20 50 SGJ 75 85 74 85 / 50 70 30 60 GNV 71 86 69 88 / 10 50 10 50 OCF 71 86 72 88 / 20 60 10 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for AMZ450-452-470- 472. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT Monday for AMZ454-474. && $$ |
| #1243444 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:12 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1007 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1015 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Last night`s weather across the Keys continues to be unsettled. Another wave of numerous showers dissipated by sunrise, and GOES- East day cloud phase scans show dissipating cirrus clouds and stray cumulus across the CWA. KAMX radar returns highlighted a couple bursts of showers and a stray thunderstorm over the nearshore waters, but otherwise conditions are rather quiet. Winds along the reef this morning are westerlies near 10 knots, and temperatures along the island chain are already in the mid 80s. The morning KKEY sounding sampled nearly 2.25 inches of PWAT, safely above the 90th percentile, with only a shallow inversion holding back convection. The most significant change from yesterday`s sounding would be a more zonal wind field. Given the pattern remains very similar to last night, making no changes to the inherited forecast. Please note this does not mean the forecast is simple. The current pattern is highly chaotic and CAMS models show no consistency in timing convective initiation across the Keys. We are expecting a cloud line to form in the afternoon, and outflow boundaries generated by thunderstorms over South Florida or Cuba will need to be watched. Keep an eye out for thunderstorms, plus winds and seas will be much more chaotic near showers. && .MARINE... Issued at 1015 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, somewhat unusual gentle westerly breezes prevail across the Florida Keys as our area is situated between ridging in the Caribbean and troughing along the Eastern Seaboard. This pattern will remain relatively unchanged throughout the forecast as the trough lazes over the east coast of CONUS while a surface low develops along the Georgia coastline. This low is progged to meander off into the western North Atlantic and rest on the west edge of the Bermuda High promoting an extension of the already established pattern in the Keys. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1015 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through early afternoon hours. Another active period of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected late this afternoon and tonight, but the exact timing remains uncertain. Amendments will be issued as conditions change. Otherwise, winds will be southwest to west near 10 knots. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 450 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 The short term forecast is quite similar to what we observed yesterday. The Keys are currently situated between ridging in the Caribbean and troughing along the Eastern Seaboard thus allowing for westerly winds throughout a good chunk of our thermodynamic profile. Last night`s KKEY 00z balloon sounding confirms this with westerlies observed from the surface to just before 300 mb. The sounding also notes a PW of 2.13 inches, just 0.05 inches shy of the 90th percentile for today, along with an MLCAPE value greater than 2300 J/kg. It is no wonder why a wave of showers and thunderstorms was able to proliferate as well as they did. CIMSS MIMIC TPW shows our area is entrenched in similar PWAT values. Due to how unchanged our thermodynamic profile and our wind field is from yesterday, have opted to keep chance showers and thunderstorms in the short term forecast. Not much change to the overall pattern and the resulting sensible weather in the Keys over the next several days. While the trough along the Eastern Seaboard will shift east into the western North Atlantic, it is expected to stall out while a surface low develops off of Georgia`s coastline. While high pressure will build back into eastern CONUS, the stalled out trough and its surface reflection will keep Keys breezes westerly until the end of the week when high pressure finally spreads over mainland Florida. As little change is currently expected, persistence continues to be the best forecast with above normal PoPs at 50% along with a chance of thunderstorms. High and low temperatures will stay near 90 and in the lower 80s (outside of precipitation) respectively as breezes generally remain out of the west. && .CLIMATE... In 1889, Key West experienced its coldest August ever with an average temperature of 81.0F in each occurrence. In 1953, Marathon experienced its coldest August ever, with an average temperature of 81.9F. Monthly temperature records for Key West date back to 1872, and date back to 1950 for Marathon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 92 81 91 81 / 50 40 50 50 Marathon 91 80 90 80 / 50 50 50 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243443 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:39 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 930 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 909 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Forecast is on track. No updates needed this morning. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Stationary boundary is draped from north central Florida westward through our Gulf waters. Surface high pressure located in the northeast US with ridging riding down the Appalachians will induce northeast surface winds across the Tri-State region. This will usher in drier air through the northern half of our CWA, hold the front at bay from moving much at all, and pin the seabreeze this afternoon closer to the coast. With higher PWATs located south of I10 and the seabreeze pinned, have better rain chances (30-50%) relegated in coastal sections, southeast Big Bend and extreme southern Georgia if convection moves that far northward. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies are on tap, northeast winds of 10-15 mph and highs in the mid to upper 80s. Tonight, lows will fall into the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A broad upper level trough will prevail over the eastern half of the country through much of the upcoming week. At the surface, an axis of surface high pressure will extend down the eastern portion of the Appalachians through much of the upcoming week and give much of the forecast area broad northeasterly flow. Light south and southwesterly flow develops late in the week and temperatures will warm. The upcoming week will generally be dry given the lack of appreciable moisture for shower/storm development. The broad frontal system that lingered over the forecast area through the weekend will continue to slowly push south on Labor Day as the axis of the surface high noses south into the forecast area. Any rain showers will likely be confined well to our south with only portions of the southeast Big Bend possibly seeing rain on Monday as these locations reside closer to the old frontal boundary. Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to see northeasterly flow across the region but as the next shortwave in the broad upper level trough approaches, we will begin to see light southerly return flow ahead of another cold front. This will begin to increase rain chances across the area on Wednesday, but given the lack of any appreciable low-level moisture rain chances are likely to remain quite low. For Thursday and into the upcoming weekend, the cold front will likely begin to stall but dry mid-level air in the upper level trough should supress much of the shower and storm potential and help temperatures warm back up into the low 90s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 MVFR/IFR cigs haven`t quite transpired as originally thought. Though, patchy stratus can be seen on latest satellite imagery. There remains a chance for stratus to affect TLH/ABY/VLD through the next several hours with VLD having the highest probs and kept a tempo group for this through 14Z while removed mention at the other sites. Otherwise, VFR is expected today and tonight as northeast winds bring drier air into the region. Some gusts this afternoon at ABY/VLD with speeds 14-17 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A frontal boundary over the nearshore waters will continue to settle further south into the Gulf into Tuesday. Northeasterly winds will be light through today but will likely increase Sunday night into Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens. This could lead to periods of cautionary or near-advisory conditions, especially in waters west of Apalachicola. The frontal boundary moves east Wednesday with winds decreasing and becoming generally westerly later in the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A drying trend takes hold over the next few days with afternoon and evening showers and thunder storms confined to the I-75 corridor of FL and the FL Big Bend. Moderate East-Northeast transport winds will be in place thru Tuesday with mixing heights away from the coast topping out around 5,000 feet. This promotes pockets of high afternoon dispersion across inland regions today and Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 As the frontal system slides south the higher rainfall totals will move south with it. Some rain is possible across the southeast Big Bend this afternoon but rainfall totals will be light and no hydrological concerns are anticipated. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 86 69 85 66 / 20 0 10 0 Panama City 88 71 89 69 / 20 10 20 10 Dothan 85 66 85 62 / 10 0 0 0 Albany 86 66 85 62 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 86 67 85 64 / 30 10 10 0 Cross City 88 71 88 68 / 60 20 30 10 Apalachicola 85 73 86 72 / 50 20 30 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243442 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:27 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 910 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 909 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Forecast is on track. No updates needed this morning. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Stationary boundary is draped from north central Florida westward through our Gulf waters. Surface high pressure located in the northeast US with ridging riding down the Appalachians will induce northeast surface winds across the Tri-State region. This will usher in drier air through the northern half of our CWA, hold the front at bay from moving much at all, and pin the seabreeze this afternoon closer to the coast. With higher PWATs located south of I10 and the seabreeze pinned, have better rain chances (30-50%) relegated in coastal sections, southeast Big Bend and extreme southern Georgia if convection moves that far northward. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies are on tap, northeast winds of 10-15 mph and highs in the mid to upper 80s. Tonight, lows will fall into the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM... && .LONG TERM... && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 MVFR/IFR cigs haven`t quite transpired as originally thought. Though, patchy stratus can be seen on latest satellite imagery. There remains a chance for stratus to affect TLH/ABY/VLD through the next several hours with VLD having the highest probs and kept a tempo group for this through 14Z while removed mention at the other sites. Otherwise, VFR is expected today and tonight as northeast winds bring drier air into the region. Some gusts this afternoon at ABY/VLD with speeds 14-17 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A frontal boundary over the nearshore waters will continue to settle further south into the Gulf into Tuesday. Northeasterly winds will be light through today but will likely increase Sunday night into Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens. This could lead to periods of cautionary or near-advisory conditions, especially in waters west of Apalachicola. The frontal boundary moves east Wednesday with winds decreasing and becoming generally westerly later in the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A drying trend takes hold over the next few days with afternoon and evening showers and thunder storms confined to the I-75 corridor of FL and the FL Big Bend. Moderate East-Northeast transport winds will be in place thru Tuesday with mixing heights away from the coast topping out around 5,000 feet. This promotes pockets of high afternoon dispersion across inland regions today and Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 As the frontal system slides south the higher rainfall totals will move south with it. Some rain is possible across the southeast Big Bend this afternoon but rainfall totals will be light and no hydrological concerns are anticipated. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 86 69 85 66 / 20 0 10 0 Panama City 88 71 89 69 / 20 10 20 10 Dothan 85 66 85 62 / 10 0 0 0 Albany 86 66 85 62 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 86 67 85 64 / 30 10 10 0 Cross City 88 71 88 68 / 60 20 30 10 Apalachicola 85 73 86 72 / 50 20 30 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243441 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:42 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 830 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 821 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Forecast on track for increasing Northeast winds with heavy rainfall threat along the Atlantic Coastal areas, mainly along the NE FL coast and areas from I-95 east towards the beaches. Northeast wind surge as high pressure builds down the SE US coastline will push sustained winds into the 15-25 mph with wind gusts of 30-35 mph at times, strongest for beachfront locations as this wind surge along the SE GA coast this morning moves down the NE FL coast this afternoon. Some of the blended model guidance is suggesting peak wind gusts around 40 mph along the Atlantic Coast, but not enough confidence for a Wind Advisory at this time. Temps will remain below normal with the cloud cover and rainfall along the Atlantic Coast with highs only around 80F, while further inland expect enough breaks in the clouds for temps to reach into the middle 80s. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 450 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Early morning surface analysis depicts weak low pressure (1011 millibars) situated over the Gulf Stream waters adjacent to northeast FL, with coastal troughing beginning to sharpen over our near shore Atlantic waters. The low pressure center was located along a nearly stationary frontal boundary that stretches across north central FL and extends westward just to the south of the northern Gulf coast. Meanwhile, strengthening high pressure (1026 millibars) was building eastward from the Great Lakes region to New England and the Mid-Atlantic states. Aloft...deep troughing prevails over the eastern third of the nation, with ridging building from Texas and the Four Corners region northward through the Plains states. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a much drier air mass was filtering over locations along and north of Interstate 10, where PWATS have fallen below 1.5 inches for locations north of Waycross and 1.6 - 1.75 inches elsewhere. Deeper moisture has been shunted southeastward to north central and coastal northeast FL, where PWATS remain mostly in the 1.8 - 2 inch range. Low pressure offshore was allowing for lower stratus clouds and a few light showers to pinwheel along our Atlantic coastal communities, with low and mid level stratocumulus clouds expanding in coverage elsewhere. A convergent band of heavier downpours was setting up over the offshore waters adjacent to northeast FL, with this activity moving slowly southward. Otherwise, temperatures and dewpoints at 09Z have fallen to the mid and upper 60s for inland portions of southeast GA and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley, with mostly lower 70s elsewhere. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 450 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Our local pressure gradient will tighten from north to south today as strong high pressure stretching from the Great Lakes states eastward to New England will wedge down the southeastern seaboard. This feature will gradually push a broad, weak low pressure center located off the southeast GA coast southward in tandem with a frontal boundary that has been stuck over our region. Strengthening low level northeasterly flow will increase convergence along the southeast GA and northeast FL coasts during the predawn and early morning hours, with a tight moisture gradient in place along the I-95 corridor allowing for slow moving covergent bands of showers to increase in coverage and intensity early this morning. Meanwhile, a drier air mass will continue to filter into inland portions of southeast GA as well as northern portions of the Suwannee Valley today, allowing for breaks in the late morning cloud cover that will allow temperatures to warm back into the 80s for the first time in 3 days. Heavy showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will slowly shift southward as the day progresses, with the drier air mass likely limiting coverage to scattered by this afternoon for coastal southeast GA. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible along the I-95 corridor in northeast FL through this afternoon, with amounts around 1 inch at most locations by later this evening, with localized totals of 2-3 inches possible at coastal locations. Breezy north-northeasterly winds and stubborn low level stratus and marine stratocumulus should keep highs in the low to mid 80s at coastal locations today. A tight local pressure gradient will persist tonight, with the best coastal convergence remaining along the northeast FL coast, with persistent bands of locally heavy downpours potentially shifting inland across Clay and Putnam Counties as well. Breezy onshore winds will keep lows in the mid 70s along the northeast FL coast and the lower 70s for coastal southeast GA. Meanwhile, the drier air mass and clearing skies overnight will again allow lows to fall to the mid and upper 60s for inland southeast GA and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 450 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 The frontal boundary from the past weekend will continue to push south of the local area towards central FL as drier air continues to move into the area. This will limit precipitation chances for much of the interior locations of SE GA and NE FL. Onshore NE flow will become established as coastal troughing develops, allowing for gusty conditions along the coast. Scattered to numerous showers/storms will move in from the Atlantic towards coastal locations, with higher chances over coastal NE FL. WPC has highlighted coastal NE FL and north central FL counties for a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall on Monday, with the Marginal Risk Excessive Rainfall only expected along the north central FL counties on Tuesday as the frontal boundary begins to shift. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 450 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 By midweek, the frontal boundary over central FL will continue to shift northward as a weak surface low develops along the eastern sea board. The lifting boundary will allow for shower and storm coverage to increase from south to north across on Wednesday. By the later part of the upcoming week, drier conditions will once again begin to build into the local area as the front and low moves further towards the NE and the arrival of a dry cold front from the NW will see precipitation chances begin to trend downward once again. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 714 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 LIFR CIGS at SSI/GNV/JAX/CRG/VQQ this morning will expand to SGJ as the NE wind surge pushes down the Atlantic Coast with best rainfall chances at the coastal TAF sites, while should be able to cover inland locations with VCSH. The increase in winds to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots will slowly lift CIGS back into MVFR levels through the afternoon hours. NE winds remain gusty at the coastal TAF sites with rainfall chances through tonight, while a lowering of CIGS back to IFR levels at GNV/VQQ/JAX expected later tonight time frame. && .MARINE... Issued at 450 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Low pressure located over the Gulf Stream waters adjacent to the GA coast will shift slowly southward across the offshore waters adjacent to northeast FL in tandem with a frontal boundary. Meanwhile, strengthening high pressure extending from the Great Lakes eastward across New England will wedge down the southeastern seaboard, sending a surge of northeasterly winds and building seas across our local waters from north to south today. Small Craft Advisory conditions will overspread the waters north of St. Augustine this afternoon as speeds increase to around 20 knots, with Caution conditions of 15-20 knots reach the waters south of St. Augustine later today. Seas will build to the 3-5 foot range across the waters north of St. Augustine this afternoon, with 2-4 foot seas for the waters south of St. Augustine. Seas will then build to Caution levels of 4-6 feet north of St. Augustine tonight and 3-5 feet for the waters south of St. Augustine. Seas will then peak on Monday and Monday night, with 5-7 foot seas for the waters north of St. Augustine, while seas reach Caution levels of 4-6 feet south of St. Augustine. Waves of showers and embedded thunderstorms will impact our local waters through midweek. Northeasterly winds will begin to gradually weaken by late Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing for seas to gradually subside. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will then decrease later this week as prevailing winds shift to westerly ahead of a series of approaching cold fronts. Rip Currents: Strengthening onshore winds from north to south across our region today will create a high risk of rip currents as breakers build to the 2-4 foot range this afternoon. Northeasterly winds will become windy on Monday, with breakers building further to the 3-5 foot range, keeping a high risk in place at all area beaches. Persistent onshore winds and only slowly subsiding surf conditions, with breakers generally remaining in the 2-4 foot range, will likely keep a high risk in place at all area beaches through midweek. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 450 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Heavy rainfall potential will mainly remained confined along the I-95 corridor and Atlantic Coastal Counties through midweek, with additional rainfall totals of 1-3 inches expected, with locally higher amounts possible. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has maintained "Marginal" Risks (level 1 of 4) for these areas through midweek, highlighting the risk for mainly localized flooding. Lower total amounts expected over inland northeast and north central FL, but with daytime heating, any of the isolated thunderstorm activity will still have heavy rainfall potential. However, the main threat will still be along the Atlantic Coastal areas, where narrow convergent rain bands set up in the strong onshore wind pattern that develops later today, with downpours potentially "training" or repeatedly impacting the same locations within some of these rain bands. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 85 66 84 63 / 40 20 10 0 SSI 83 73 83 73 / 40 30 40 20 JAX 84 72 84 71 / 50 40 60 20 SGJ 85 75 85 74 / 70 60 70 30 GNV 87 71 86 69 / 50 30 50 10 OCF 87 71 86 72 / 70 40 60 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for AMZ450-470. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 11 PM EDT Monday for AMZ452-472. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT Monday for AMZ454-474. && $$ |
| #1243440 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:30 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 823 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Unsettled pattern with previously advertised wetter and relatively cooler conditions will settle into the area today in association with a stalled surface boundary and westerly flow aloft south of E CONUS longwave troughing. Shortwave impulses propagating through the flow aloft aiding instability and overspreading moisture associated with the surface boundary will lead to periods of showers and storms across the region, favoring and spreading ashore coastal locations during the mornings before expanding into and becoming more numerous over the interior in the afternoons. Given the persistent soggy conditions, a Marginal Risk for potential flooding exists for all of W FL and the peninsula today into mid week, most likely in areas receiving heavier downpours relatively quickly allowing for ponding of water in typical flood prone urban, low lying and poor drainage locations. While some drier air intrusions will be possible north of the boundary that would act to limit overall rain chances, the boundary is expected to remain generally over the northern or central peninsula, favoring at least scattered to numerous showers and storms each day into mid week. Currently, most likely expected rainfall amounts range from 1-3 inches north of I-4, to 2-4 inches south of I-4, with locally higher amounts possible particularly for WC/SWFL and coastal locations. A shortwave dropping across the Lower MS Valley and rounding the base of the longwave trough across the SE U.S. mid to late week will potentially provide a bit of a push to nudge the boundary into S FL or the FL Straits enabling relatively drier air to filter deeper into the peninsula leading to a decrease in rain chances late week into next weekend. In response, high temps would likely warm a few degrees back into the lower 90s, after being limited mainly to the upper 80s today through mid week due to the anticipated additional cloudiness. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 820 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A stalled out boundary to our north will give us an active weather pattern today with periods of rain and thunderstorms expected over each terminal. I have tried to highlight the best chance to see thunderstorms with TEMPO group at each station. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A quasi-stationary frontal boundary will linger over the waters through the next few days, with deep moisture leading to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. Winds will generally remain less than headline criteria, although daily thunderstorms will produce locally gusty winds rough seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Increased shower and storm chances through the early part of the week as a weak frontal boundary brings additional moisture and instability into the area. Scattered to numerous storms likely each day, with the greatest potential for storms near the coast generally in the morning to early afternoon, with the higher chances inland during the afternoon and evening across the interior. Minimal fire weather concerns expected through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 89 77 89 75 / 70 40 60 30 FMY 89 75 91 75 / 70 50 70 40 GIF 90 74 89 74 / 70 40 60 10 SRQ 89 74 89 74 / 60 40 60 40 BKV 87 71 88 70 / 70 30 60 20 SPG 86 76 88 75 / 70 40 60 40 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1243439 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:18 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 706 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Drier conditions will persist through the remainder of the forecast as upper troughing continues to trend stronger across the eastern US. With a large upper cutoff low over the Great Lakes and high pressure over the western US, dry northwesterly flow aloft will persist Sunday through most of the week. At the surface, a subtle boundary will continue to loiter just offshore in the northern Gulf allowing for the better Gulf moisture to remain where it belongs, over the Gulf and not us. As a result, the forecast for the next 5 to 7 days looks dry and coolish for early September. The best chance for rain will likely come towards the middle of the week as a few shortwave troughs progress through the northwesterly flow brining the chance of some showers and storms across the interior portions of our area Wednesday. Other than that, expect dry conditions with highs in the upper 80s to potentially cracking 90 degrees by midweek. Dewpoints will be noticably lower which should keep the muggyness down and make it rather comfortable (or at least as comfortable the weather can be for early September). BB-8 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 705 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 VFR to MVFR ceilings will clear this morning with VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the period. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A light to moderate northeasterly flow is expected through Sunday. A moderate to occasionally strong northeasterly flow develops by Monday morning then becomes a light to moderate easterly flow for Monday afternoon through Tuesday. A northerly to westerly flow develops by Thursday. Small craft will need to exercise caution on Sunday night into Monday morning. BB-8 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 87 69 88 67 87 67 89 69 / 10 0 10 10 20 10 20 10 Pensacola 86 72 88 70 87 70 88 71 / 10 10 20 10 20 10 20 10 Destin 87 73 88 71 87 73 87 73 / 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 10 Evergreen 89 66 89 61 89 63 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 10 Waynesboro 88 66 88 63 88 64 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 20 10 Camden 88 66 87 63 88 64 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 10 Crestview 86 66 87 63 88 65 89 67 / 10 0 10 0 10 10 20 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243438 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:57 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 651 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 - An environment supportive of localized heavy rain continues through the weekend. A slight risk of excessive rain (threat level 2 of 4) is in place Sunday, with most of the area seeing a marginal risk for excessive rain (threat level 1 of 4) on Labor Day. - After the holiday, expect rain chances to decrease as drier air filters into the region. Potential for showers and storms may start to work back in late in the week. - High temperatures should remain relatively near seasonal averages; a bit cooler where it rains, a bit warmer where it does not. At night, lows should gradually slide through the 70s towards the upper 60s inland as the drier air filters in. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 If you were a fan of Saturday`s weather around the area, I got some real good news for you about the rest of the holiday weekend, because it`s going to largely be a lot more of the same for the next couple of days. And it`s certainly got its perks, as some folks up around the Pineywoods and east of the Houston metro had temperatures stay in the lower half of the 80s. Of course, the price of that was plenty of showers and storms, which isn`t necessarily ideal for a holiday weekend. Given our, uh...reputation...with holidays though, getting away with a single flood advisory for some heavy street ponding for some inside the Beltway isn`t that bad. Sunday...looks like more of the same. We will continue to have some of the ingredients for heavy rain - a stalled boundary with precipitable water around the 90th percentile, and an upper ridge that has retreated enough that multiple shortwave troughs will be making their way through the pattern in the northwest flow overhead. Soundings indicate a skinny CAPE profile, with sufficient instability for stronger storms in a moisture-laden atmosphere. But...not all of the holes in the swiss cheese model of disasters appear to be lining up, which should mitigate a more widespread heavy rain threat, and keep concerns limited to where/if locally heavy rain falls over a vulnerable spot (low- lying, poor drainage, etc). For instance, Corfidi vectors aren`t terribly alarming - they aren`t really favorably large, but also aren`t indicative of very slow movement and/or backbuilding. We`d instead need other mesoscale features to keep storms from moving, similar to what we saw over the Houston core earlier in the day. Additionally, the low-level moisture transport is somewhat shallow. 925 mb moisture transport vectors are pretty solidly onshore and working at pumping moisture into Southeast Texas, but there`s virtually no moisture transport at 850 mb, instead looking more steady state. Ultimately, there`s certainly some concern for localized flooding issues emerging, and there is a slight risk for excessive rain (threat level 2 of 4) across the area tomorrow as we have a second day with scattered to numerous storms expected to pop up across the area. HREF probabilities for 1 inch per hour rain rates do appear as a speckling of low signal across the area, but perhaps more west of the Brazos and right on the coast than other places. Again, an indication that there`s some support for big rainers there, but no strong signal for any given spot. There was some consideration given to issuing a flood watch, but without the confidence for impacts to a specific area, we`re opting to hold off...for now. Should a better alignment of concerning factors begin to emerge, we could always opt to issue one on a shorter fuse. Monday...more or less run it back. The stalled front does look like it should drift a little farther south, and that will shift low level flow more northeasterly, at least farther inland. This will start to filter in some drier air, but we should still be in a fairly moist environment with continued vort maxes traversing the northwest flow aloft. With a bit of the edge taken off, WPC stepped things back to a marginal risk for excessive rain (threat level 1 of 4) for all but our northernmost reaches, which will be most likely to see the tap turn off as moisture levels start to back down. The rest of the week...doesn`t seem to have quite as much to say about it. Rain potential will back down into the middle of the week, with the initial front pushing off into the Gulf, and a reinforcing front solidly establishing the lack of rain potential arriving late on Tuesday (or early Wednesday?). I don`t think Tuesday is entirely dry, and perhaps not even following days, but whatever rain there is should be pretty scarce. Of course, we can also anticipate daytime temperatures to go up with that as well. While cloudy, stormy Sunday/Monday see highs mostly in the 80s or around 90 at most, we`ll see highs drift back up into the 90s for once the drier air moves in. BUT! the drier air will help the humidity situation be less oppressive, and allow for a bit more cooling at night thanks to the lower temperature floor the decreased dewpoints set! By Wednesday night, I`m forecasting lows in the 60s for all but those right on the Gulf or in the Houston urban heat island. This likely does not mean cool nights for me, but I`m happy for y`all that get them. Now, for the last few nights, you`ve caught me on here trying to be cautiously optimistic about a late week front. And...honestly...a lot of the things that I`ve been pinning my hope on are still there. Anomalously high U winds at 500 mb with anomalously low V winds, 850 temps at or below the 10th percentile pushing as deep as the Red River Valley and parts of North Texas late in the week... I`m not asking for much here, just some days with highs closer to 80 than 90! And yet...the NBM remains stubbornly warm into the weekend, with widespread highs around 90. Even worse, cooler Euro Ensemble 850 temps have pulled back farther north, closer to what NAEFS has been showing. It`s got a forecaster wondering if he`s been wishcasting. And...maybe I am. I do note that LREF`s primary cluster does show a stronger upper trough than the grand mean, and even though it doesn`t appear to have noticeably cooler surface temps anymore, I`d rather a stronger upper trough supporting an incoming front than a weaker one (please do not look at any of the other clusters, which are at best slower and at worst stronger than the grand ensemble mean). So, after all that, I continue to stick near the deterministic NBM numbers, with a slight hedge to the cooler side. I continue to think that the error of the NBM`s forecast will continue to be towards the side of lower temps, but there is not yet enough evidence out there to push me to decisively push the forecast that way, and that error ultimately may not be very large, even if it occurs. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 627 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 SGR at MVFR due to CIGs and all other sites at VFR. TSRA/SHRA making their way down from the north and inland from the Gulf this morning. Expect activity to continue through the morning, increasing in coverage this afternoon. Some storms could produce strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall as well as reduce VSBYs to MVFR/IFR levels. Winds will generally be light and variable through the period with the exception of winds associated with TSRA. Activity should come to an end this evening with VFR CIGs and light variable winds overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A stalled frontal boundary will continue to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region through the holiday weekend. Some of the stronger storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. Winds outside of storms will generally be light and variable. However, locally stronger winds in the vicinity of thunderstorms should be expected. Additionally, the environment will continue to be supportive of isolated waterspouts, and we may see more on top of those observed during the day on Saturday. While rain chances should dwindle inland, daily isolated to scattered showers and storms may persist over the Gulf. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 83 72 87 71 / 80 40 50 10 Houston (IAH) 85 75 89 74 / 60 30 50 20 Galveston (GLS) 87 79 87 79 / 50 50 70 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243437 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:57 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 749 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend across the area through mid week while a stationary front lingers just off the coast. A cold front will move through Thursday night or Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: Aloft, mid-lvl troughing extending from the Northeast to Southeast United States will attempt to become cutoff across the Mid- Atlantic states by this evening, favoring subtle/weak shortwave energy to traverse the region throughout much of the day. At the sfc, low pressure will continue to pull further offshore and away from the local area, allowing high pressure to build inland throughout the afternoon. A weaker boundary associated with this airmass should remain closer/stall near the coast, currently depicted on radar imagery just off the South Carolina beaches. This boundary should become the primary focus in regards to potential shower and/or thunderstorm activity developing nearby late morning into early afternoon, with activity potentially shifting back onshore within a low-lvl northeast flow. However, the environment is quite different in regards to deep moisture compared to yesterday (PWATs now between 1.25 to 1.50 inches), with water vapor imagery also indicating a fairly substantial amount of dry air across the local area in the mid-lvls, which is also depicted in local soundings. This should tend to favor any convection struggling to persist if drifting onshore, and likely lead to much lower rainfall amounts than experienced the previous day, generally under 1/4 inch near the coast. Additionally, the pressure gradient will strengthen between high pressure inland and low pressure offshore, setting up breezy northeast winds along the coastal corridor. Gusts should generally top out near 20-30 mph this afternoon. Despite high pressure building across the area and north-northeast winds prevailing for much of the day, the lack of precip and lack of significant cloud cover should lead to warmer temps compared to the previous day, with highs generally peaking in the low-mid 80s, warmest across Southeast Georgia away from the coast. Tonight: Any convection able to develop near coastal areas during the day will quickly come to an end with the loss of daytime heating. The mid-upper lvl low becomes more cutoff while high pressure prevails across the Southeast through the night. The pattern favors dry and cooler conditions for all areas as light northeasterly winds occur for a bulk of the night. Low temps should generally range in the lower 60s inland to mid-upper 60s closer to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Cool and dry high pressure north of the region will continue to ridge down the Eastern Seaboard Monday and Tuesday, maintaining a relatively dry airmass over the area with temps below normal. By Tuesday afternoon, there could be enough moisture moving into coastal GA to squeeze out a few showers. An approaching upper trough mid week will push the surface high off the Mid-Atlantic coast, allowing moisture to increase over the area. The cold advection will wane, with temps rising a couple degrees. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, especially in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A weak cold front will move through Thursday night or Friday, then a potentially stronger cold front will move through late in the weekend. Relatively quiet weather is anticipated with temps getting back close to normal. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions should prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 12Z Monday. However, low clouds could briefly drift back onshore with light showers during the next 1-2 hours, leading to TEMPO MVFR cigs at any terminal.The bulk of guidance suggests high pressure to build across the area while low pressure pulls further away from the coast, leading to gusty northeast winds at all terminals late morning through much of the afternoon (around 20 kt). A few showers could also develop near the coast late morning, so VCSH remains in the forecast at CHS/SAV into late morning, but showers could linger a bit longer this afternoon at JZI given its closer proximity to the coast. Extended Aviation Forecast: Mainly VFR. Afternoon showers/tstms will return Wed and Thu, possibly resulting in brief flight restrictions. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: The pressure gradient will strengthen across local waters as high pressure builds inland and low pressure exits further offshore. This will favor northeasterly winds gusting upwards to 25-30 kt by late morning and conditions persisting through the remainder of the day and the night. Seas will also respond by building across local waters, generally to 5-7 ft, largest across nearshore waters off the Charleston County Coast and across outer Georgia waters. Small Craft Advisories remain in place today and tonight, starting across coastal waters at 6 AM this morning, with the exception being across the Charleston Harbor, which starts at 10 AM this morning. Seas of 6 ft or greater as well as occasional 25 kt gusts will continue through Monday evening for the nearshore waters and through Monday night for the offshore waters. Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Conditions improve thereafter as the surface high to the north begins to weaken, relaxing the gradient. Rip Currents: Increasing swell height/period and enhanced onshore flow will result in a Moderate risk today and High risk Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The persistent NE flow will result in steadily building tidal departures through early in the week, with anomalies potentially getting above 1 ft. At the moment, tides in Charleston should fall just short of minor flooding, but it could be close with the Mon and Tue afternoon high tides. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ330. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ350-352-354. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1243436 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:54 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 745 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in control through at least Thursday, bringing an extended stretch of dry weather, seasonable temperatures and northeast breezes. Northeast winds may become a little stronger on Tuesday for southeast New England as low pressure passes well east of the benchmark. Turns warmer and a little more humid by Friday, with a cold front bringing a welcomed rain. High pressure returns for the weekend, bringing Cooler temperatures and dry weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 230 AM Update: Key Messages: * Mostly sunny and dry with seasonable temps, although with seabreezes near the coasts. Highs 70s with lows in the upper 40s to the mid 50s. Details: No substantive change to the large-scale pattern driving our weather, with the main features being a deamplifying upper low over northeast ME and sfc ridging extending SE into southern New England from a large 1024 mb high pressure over northern Wisconsin. For most away from the coast, light winds and a cool airmass is allowing for current temps more reminiscent of early Fall with values in the 40s to lower 50s. Otherwise, dry weather continues to govern with low precipitable water values. Expect another day of dry weather, plenty of sun and seasonable temperatures to mark the close to August today. Only difference is that winds will be lighter and turn onshore as we move into the late morning to early afternoon, keeping coastal areas a few degrees cooler than well inland. Highs reaching into the 70s with full sun with upper 70s/near 80 CT Valley, but in the low 70s near the coasts with a light onshore breeze. Mostly clear and dry weather tonight too for the majority of Southern New England. While light, may be just enough of an onshore wind to keep temps slightly milder for the southern coasts. Upper-level moisture may also advect northward leading to some increased high clouds for the southern roughly third of Southern New England. Lows upper 40s to mid 50s, with mid/upper 50s near the southeast coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 230 AM Update: Key Messages: * Onshore flow continues Mon and Tue but still dry with seasonable temps. * NE winds increase on Tue over southeast MA and the Cape/Islands to around 15-20 mph. * Borderline, but monitoring for possible rip currents against east- facing beaches Tue as low pressure passes well east of 40N/70W. Details: Monday and Tuesday: Sfc high pressure will shift into ME on Monday and remain in place through Tuesday. This will keep an onshore NE flow going, with somewhat milder but still seasonable temps inland and cooler temps near the eastern coasts. A shortwave disturbance aloft seen on early- morning water vapor imagery near NW Ohio digs southeast today and closes off over the mid-Atlantic states tonight, which then rotates N/NW into NY/western New England by early on Tue. What this feature will do for Monday is draw a stream of mid to upper-level moisture northward, leading to a more filtered-sun look but it`s otherwise a continued dry day with deep dry air seen on model forecast soundings. Highs on Monday in the 70s, except low 70s near the coast. For Tuesday, a weak low pressure currently off the Carolinas is forecast to pass well east of 40N/70W, with pretty strong model consensus on that track. With sfc high pressure still in control, expect another day of dry weather and seasonable for the majority of Southern New England. For southeast New England though, and especially for Cape Cod and the Islands, with a tightening gradient, expect a bit stronger northeast breezes to around 15-20 mph. Something we`ll be watching for Tuesday too is the potential for rip currents on the east-facing coasts of Cape Cod and Nantucket, as this low pressure passes well to our east; it`s borderline, but it`s notable that the ECMWF model shows offshore waves building to about 6 ft Tuesday. With beaches becoming unguarded, we might need to consider a rip current statement at worst, but forecast wave heights look too low for high surf advisories. Otherwise, highs should again reach into the 70s, though it may be a struggle to reach the low 70s with the breezes over southeast MA and the Cape/Islands. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages: * Dry weather, seasonable temps with seabreezes through at least Thurs. * Brief warming trend Fri and turning a little more humid, as cold front is likely to bring welcomed rains. * Cooling off and turning less humid into the weekend. Details: Still under high pressure with dry and seasonable weather through Thursday. Thus, expect a continuation of the same themes with seasonable temps, dry weather, plenty of sun during the day and clear skies/cooler nights. Looks to turn a little more humid, but not oppressively so, as we move into late Thurs and Fri, due to increased southerly flow ahead of a digging upper low over the Gt Lakes. Its related sfc frontal system looks to arrive on Fri and taps into a subtropical airmass in the southerly flow (PWATs around 1.5 inches, which are about 2 standard deviations above normal). Thus we should see a pretty decent and welcomed rainfall with PoPs in the high chance to Likely range. We then dry out and cool off again for the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12z TAF Update: Today through Monday: High confidence. VFR through the period. Winds start off light NW to N today but become onshore around 5-10 kt late this morning. Onshore winds kick back to SSW after 00z becoming light N later tonight. Light N flow acros the rest of the interior. Mid and high clouds move in overnight. A bit more in the way of high clouds for Monday but still VFR with NE winds around 5-10 kt. Monday Night through Tuesday: High confidence. Still VFR for Monday night and Tuesday, but NE winds pick up a bit, especially along the southeast coast. While winds are light northerly for most of Southern New England, NE winds become around 10-15 kt for the east coast and around 15-20 kt for the Cape and Islands. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Thursday/... Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Monday Night: High confidence. Winds/seas below SCA criterion in this period. Light N winds become NE/E today around 10-15 kt, becoming light tonight. NE winds around 5-10 kt Monday, increasing to around 15-20 kt Mon night. Seas 4ft or less all waters. Tuesday: Moderate confidence. NE winds increase to near-SCA levels (around 20-25 kt) over the southeast waters, with seas nearing 4-6 ft. May need SCAs for waters adjacent to Cape Cod and the Islands. Possible risk of rip currents against east-facing beaches. Elsewhere, NE winds around 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt and seas 4 ft or less. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Thursday/... Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1243435 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:51 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 641 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 627 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 -Heat continues to be a concern especially through Monday with a Moderate (level 2 out of 4) to Major (level 3 out of 4) Heat Risk. -Rain chances increase for Monday and Tuesday. -The Weather Prediction Center continues to highlight northern portions of Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, and Kenedy counties in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall on Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Heat continues to be the main focus for the start of the forecast period. Mid-level ridging and moisture advection with south- southeasterly winds will continue to bring hot temperatures rising into the upper 90s to 100s and heat indices between 105 to 110 degrees across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. This will maintain a Moderate (level 2 out of 4) to Major (level 3 out of 4) Heat risk for the region through Monday. While heat indices will remain below Heat Advisory criteria, Special Weather Statements will be needed. Tuesday temperatures cool slightly, but will remain near to just above seasonal norms for the remainder of forecast period. As we head into Monday a cold front begins to push southward, stalling just north of the CWA. This will bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms on Monday (40-60%) and Tuesday (50-70%). WPC has a small portion of the Northern Ranchlands in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) on Monday. There is some uncertainty in the rainfall forecast, especially across the northern Ranchlands. If the front stalls farther north, rain chances will decrease. With that said, latest forecast guidance has increased rain chances across Deep South Texas slightly on Monday and more noticeably on Tuesday. Rain chances taper off Tuesday night and will generally remain around 15% or less for Wednesday and Thursday. There will be a slight uptick in precip chances headed into next weekend as we look at the potential of another approaching and passing cold front at the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. Light to moderate southeasterly winds are expected to continue through the day with mostly clear skies. Cloud cover is expected to increase early Monday morning ahead of a cold front that will be approaching the region near the end of the forecast period. However, skies will likely remain scattered through the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Generally favorable conditions with mostly light to moderate southerly to southeasterly winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft. A frontal boundary will stall north of the CWA increasing rain and thunderstorms chances Monday and Tuesday (50-70%) before pushing through late tuesday. This activity could lead to locally elevated winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 96 79 95 79 / 10 10 40 40 HARLINGEN 98 75 97 75 / 10 0 50 50 MCALLEN 102 79 101 79 / 0 10 40 50 RIO GRANDE CITY 103 77 101 77 / 0 0 30 60 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 90 82 89 80 / 0 10 30 50 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 94 78 93 77 / 0 10 30 50 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243432 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:30 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 718 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 450 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Early morning surface analysis depicts weak low pressure (1011 millibars) situated over the Gulf Stream waters adjacent to northeast FL, with coastal troughing beginning to sharpen over our near shore Atlantic waters. The low pressure center was located along a nearly stationary frontal boundary that stretches across north central FL and extends westward just to the south of the northern Gulf coast. Meanwhile, strengthening high pressure (1026 millibars) was building eastward from the Great Lakes region to New England and the Mid-Atlantic states. Aloft...deep troughing prevails over the eastern third of the nation, with ridging building from Texas and the Four Corners region northward through the Plains states. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a much drier air mass was filtering over locations along and north of Interstate 10, where PWATS have fallen below 1.5 inches for locations north of Waycross and 1.6 - 1.75 inches elsewhere. Deeper moisture has been shunted southeastward to north central and coastal northeast FL, where PWATS remain mostly in the 1.8 - 2 inch range. Low pressure offshore was allowing for lower stratus clouds and a few light showers to pinwheel along our Atlantic coastal communities, with low and mid level stratocumulus clouds expanding in coverage elsewhere. A convergent band of heavier downpours was setting up over the offshore waters adjacent to northeast FL, with this activity moving slowly southward. Otherwise, temperatures and dewpoints at 09Z have fallen to the mid and upper 60s for inland portions of southeast GA and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley, with mostly lower 70s elsewhere. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 450 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Our local pressure gradient will tighten from north to south today as strong high pressure stretching from the Great Lakes states eastward to New England will wedge down the southeastern seaboard. This feature will gradually push a broad, weak low pressure center located off the southeast GA coast southward in tandem with a frontal boundary that has been stuck over our region. Strengthening low level northeasterly flow will increase convergence along the southeast GA and northeast FL coasts during the predawn and early morning hours, with a tight moisture gradient in place along the I-95 corridor allowing for slow moving covergent bands of showers to increase in coverage and intensity early this morning. Meanwhile, a drier air mass will continue to filter into inland portions of southeast GA as well as northern portions of the Suwannee Valley today, allowing for breaks in the late morning cloud cover that will allow temperatures to warm back into the 80s for the first time in 3 days. Heavy showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will slowly shift southward as the day progresses, with the drier air mass likely limiting coverage to scattered by this afternoon for coastal southeast GA. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible along the I-95 corridor in northeast FL through this afternoon, with amounts around 1 inch at most locations by later this evening, with localized totals of 2-3 inches possible at coastal locations. Breezy north-northeasterly winds and stubborn low level stratus and marine stratocumulus should keep highs in the low to mid 80s at coastal locations today. A tight local pressure gradient will persist tonight, with the best coastal convergence remaining along the northeast FL coast, with persistent bands of locally heavy downpours potentially shifting inland across Clay and Putnam Counties as well. Breezy onshore winds will keep lows in the mid 70s along the northeast FL coast and the lower 70s for coastal southeast GA. Meanwhile, the drier air mass and clearing skies overnight will again allow lows to fall to the mid and upper 60s for inland southeast GA and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 450 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 The frontal boundary from the past weekend will continue to push south of the local area towards central FL as drier air continues to move into the area. This will limit precipitation chances for much of the interior locations of SE GA and NE FL. Onshore NE flow will become established as coastal troughing develops, allowing for gusty conditions along the coast. Scattered to numerous showers/storms will move in from the Atlantic towards coastal locations, with higher chances over coastal NE FL. WPC has highlighted coastal NE FL and north central FL counties for a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall on Monday, with the Marginal Risk Excessive Rainfall only expected along the north central FL counties on Tuesday as the frontal boundary begins to shift. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 450 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 By midweek, the frontal boundary over central FL will continue to shift northward as a weak surface low develops along the eastern sea board. The lifting boundary will allow for shower and storm coverage to increase from south to north across on Wednesday. By the later part of the upcoming week, drier conditions will once again begin to build into the local area as the front and low moves further towards the NE and the arrival of a dry cold front from the NW will see precipitation chances begin to trend downward once again. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 714 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 LIFR CIGS at SSI/GNV/JAX/CRG/VQQ this morning will expand to SGJ as the NE wind surge pushes down the Atlantic Coast with best rainfall chances at the coastal TAF sites, while should be able to cover inland locations with VCSH. The increase in winds to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots will slowly lift CIGS back into MVFR levels through the afternoon hours. NE winds remain gusty at the coastal TAF sites with rainfall chances through tonight, while a lowering of CIGS back to IFR levels at GNV/VQQ/JAX expected later tonight time frame. && .MARINE... Issued at 450 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Low pressure located over the Gulf Stream waters adjacent to the GA coast will shift slowly southward across the offshore waters adjacent to northeast FL in tandem with a frontal boundary. Meanwhile, strengthening high pressure extending from the Great Lakes eastward across New England will wedge down the southeastern seaboard, sending a surge of northeasterly winds and building seas across our local waters from north to south today. Small Craft Advisory conditions will overspread the waters north of St. Augustine this afternoon as speeds increase to around 20 knots, with Caution conditions of 15-20 knots reach the waters south of St. Augustine later today. Seas will build to the 3-5 foot range across the waters north of St. Augustine this afternoon, with 2-4 foot seas for the waters south of St. Augustine. Seas will then build to Caution levels of 4-6 feet north of St. Augustine tonight and 3-5 feet for the waters south of St. Augustine. Seas will then peak on Monday and Monday night, with 5-7 foot seas for the waters north of St. Augustine, while seas reach Caution levels of 4-6 feet south of St. Augustine. Waves of showers and embedded thunderstorms will impact our local waters through midweek. Northeasterly winds will begin to gradually weaken by late Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing for seas to gradually subside. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will then decrease later this week as prevailing winds shift to westerly ahead of a series of approaching cold fronts. Rip Currents: Strengthening onshore winds from north to south across our region today will create a high risk of rip currents as breakers build to the 2-4 foot range this afternoon. Northeasterly winds will become windy on Monday, with breakers building further to the 3-5 foot range, keeping a high risk in place at all area beaches. Persistent onshore winds and only slowly subsiding surf conditions, with breakers generally remaining in the 2-4 foot range, will likely keep a high risk in place at all area beaches through midweek. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 450 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Heavy rainfall potential will mainly remained confined along the I-95 corridor and Atlantic Coastal Counties through midweek, with additional rainfall totals of 1-3 inches expected, with locally higher amounts possible. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has maintained "Marginal" Risks (level 1 of 4) for these areas through midweek, highlighting the risk for mainly localized flooding. Lower total amounts expected over inland northeast and north central FL, but with daytime heating, any of the isolated thunderstorm activity will still have heavy rainfall potential. However, the main threat will still be along the Atlantic Coastal areas, where narrow convergent rain bands set up in the strong onshore wind pattern that develops later today, with downpours potentially "training" or repeatedly impacting the same locations within some of these rain bands. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 85 66 84 63 / 40 20 10 0 SSI 83 73 83 73 / 40 30 40 20 JAX 84 72 84 71 / 50 40 60 20 SGJ 85 75 85 74 / 70 60 70 30 GNV 87 71 86 69 / 50 30 50 10 OCF 87 71 86 72 / 70 40 60 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from 11 AM EDT this morning through late Monday night for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. GA...High Rip Current Risk from 11 AM EDT this morning through late Monday night for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for AMZ450-470. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 11 PM EDT Monday for AMZ452-472. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT Monday for AMZ454-474. && $$ |
| #1243431 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:30 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 617 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 613 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 - Moderate to major risk of heat related impacts today. - Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning today and continuing into Tuesday. Greatest chances for rain are Monday into early Tuesday. - WPC has a Marginal to Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall across South TX through tonight. A Marginal Risk continues through Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Hot conditions continue across South Texas today. Highs will reach the upper 90s in the Coastal Bend to the low 100s across the Coastal Plains and westward. Heat indices will climb into the 105-112 degF range. The most significant impacts are once again expected across the Brush Country, where a Moderate to Major (level 2-3 of 4) heat risk is forecast, and an isolated Extreme (level 4 of 4) risk cannot be ruled out in parts of La Salle and McMullen counties. Elsewhere a Minor to Moderate (level 1-2 of 4) will extend into the Coastal Plains, Coastal Bend, and the Crossroads. With many of you likely spending time outdoors this Labor Day weekend, practicing heat safety will be critical. Please remember to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks, and avoid prolonged direct sun exposure. Additional safety tips are available at weather.gov/heat . Later today, we`ll begin to see a shift to a bit more of an active pattern. The ridge axis we have been watching the last several days is expected to shift westward, allowing weak shortwave disturbances to ride down its eastern periphery. Along with the pooling of moisture (PWATs greater than 2 inches) ahead of a stationary boundary currently to our north, this setup will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms in the coming days. Chances for measurable rain (20-50%) begin today across the Victoria Crossroads and northern Coastal Plains. CAMs are split regarding the evolution of rainfall over portions of the northern Brush Country late tonight as they are hung up on the advancement of available moisture this far south and west. I increased NBM PoPs over this area to account for at least a low chance (20-30%). The day-shift can edit as necessary once the most recent model data comes in closer to time and confidence increases in the progression of precipitation. Broader low to moderately high probabilities (30-70%) will expand region-wide Monday into Tuesday when the atmospheric set-up looks to be the best. Given the amount of moisture we have in place, some storms may be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. WPC continues to highlight northern portions of the CWA in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall from 12Z today through 12Z Monday, with an isolated Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for the Victoria Crossroads. They continue to also paint most of South Texas in a Marginal Risk from 12Z Monday until 12Z Tuesday. Rain chances begin to taper off by late Tuesday/Tuesday night as the aforementioned boundary gradually pushes through, with drier conditions expected mid-to-late week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Isolated showers are developing northeast of VCT terminal early this morning. Have added VCSH wording in the TAF for this morning. Chances increase this afternoon and have maintained Prob30 for this site. Low chance of convection at CRP today - too low to include in TAF at this time. Some guidance suggest convection approaching COT this evening and have indicated this in TAF. Generally expect VFR conditions outside of in the vicinity of showers and storms. Light to moderate southeast winds are expected. Rain chances increase tomorrow, and have added the mention to the end of the forecast period at VCT. && .MARINE... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore flow with occasionally fresh (BF 5) breezes along the southern bays and nearshore waters will continue through most of the upcoming week. Rain chances will become low to medium (20-70%) late today through early Tuesday afternoon before diminishing as a boundary moves south through the waters. The boundary passage will shift winds to the north and bring in drier air. Onshore flow will return by Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 95 77 91 75 / 20 30 70 50 Victoria 95 74 90 72 / 50 50 70 30 Laredo 104 78 98 75 / 10 20 60 60 Alice 99 75 93 74 / 20 20 70 50 Rockport 93 77 90 77 / 30 40 70 50 Cotulla 101 77 93 75 / 20 30 70 40 Kingsville 97 76 93 74 / 20 20 70 50 Navy Corpus 91 81 89 80 / 20 40 60 60 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243430 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:15 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 701 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 149 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A prolonged period of unsettled weather will continue across South Florida as deep upper-level troughing remains established over the Eastern Seaboard. Satellite imagery early this morning shows the trough axis has ejected over the western Atlantic, while a corresponding surface boundary gradually drifts southward along the Florida peninsula. This should help enhance moisture advection along the column today. With this improved moisture profile and westerly flow in place, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible this afternoon, with activity starting to develop inland in the early afternoon hours, then progressing east towards the East Coast metro. Guidance suggests generally up to 1 inch across much of South Florida could be possible, with pockets of 1-2 inches along the East Coast metro, and up to 3 inches in isolated spots. One potential limiting factor to keep in mind will be the potential that the prevailing westerly flow could preclude the development of the Atlantic sea breeze this afternoon, which would reduce the possibility for convection to become pinned over the metro areas for prolonged periods, and thus limit the potential for higher rainfall accumulations. That being said, high-res models have shown spotty run-to-run consistency over the past several days, so confidence regarding the finer-scale details of this solution remains low. Nevertheless, given this discussion, and recent rainfall over the last few days, localized flooding concerns cannot be ruled out, and WPC is keeping much of South Florida under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall today, but widespread impacts appear unlikely at this time. On Monday, chances for widespread rainfall have trended downward, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms still forecast to develop, but concerns over flash flooding somewhat diminished. Highs this weekend will remain in the low-mid 90s, while lows could dip to the low-mid 70s overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 149 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 The period of unsettled weather looks to persist through much of the upcoming week as the upper-level trough lingers over the Eastern Seaboard, with several shortwave impulses moving through the flow. Repeated rounds of rainfall through mid-week will keep at least a marginal risk for localized flooding, especially along the East Coast metro where westerly flow will continue to focus activity. A weak surface low may develop and move across South FL on Tuesday, which could bring a temporary uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage. By late week, the upper trough is expected to gradually lift northward, which should begin to shift the pattern into next weekend. High temperatures through the extended period will generally range from the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the low-mid 70s across the interior and up to the upper 70s along the coasts. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 700 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Light and variable winds early this morning becoming westerly 5-10 kts late morning through the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 149 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Light westerly to southwesterly winds develop today across all local waters. Seas are expected at 2 feet or less across all local waters. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain possible each day, which may cause periods of locally gusty winds and rough seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 92 76 91 77 / 70 50 80 60 West Kendall 91 75 90 76 / 70 50 80 50 Opa-Locka 93 76 92 77 / 70 50 70 60 Homestead 91 75 90 76 / 70 50 70 60 Fort Lauderdale 93 76 90 77 / 70 50 70 60 N Ft Lauderdale 93 77 91 77 / 70 50 70 50 Pembroke Pines 94 76 93 77 / 70 50 70 50 West Palm Beach 92 75 90 77 / 70 50 70 50 Boca Raton 94 76 92 76 / 70 50 70 50 Naples 91 77 90 77 / 70 50 60 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243429 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:12 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 657 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the north today and maintain control through Tuesday before weak low pressure likely impacts the area mid week. A weak cold front could then impact the area late week. && .UPDATE... Aviation discussion updated below. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Boundary along the coast along with land breeze producing spotty showers early this morning. Expect mainly spotty showers earlier today closer to the coast and offshore, but as dry high pressure builds in from the north, expect mainly higher clouds by later today. GFS shows higher pcp water values along and just off the coast this morning, but diminishing to near and inch by later today. Looking at the sounding profiles, it looks like mid to high clouds will basically be passing overhead around base of mid to upper trough, with considerable dry air moving in within the low levels. Gusty northeast winds will develop today as high pressure builds in from the north and low pressure moves up through the offshore waters producing breezy conditions through this afternoon. Expect below normal temps with highs today in the low 80s most places. Dewpoint temps well into the 60s early this morning will drop out into the 50s inland by later today, allowing for overnight lows tonight to drop closer to 60 and possibly below over inland areas. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Near to below normal rain chances, mainly near the coast *No risk for severe storms/flash flooding *Below normal temps Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: No major changes from the previous forecast. Inland high pressure and offshore low pressure will keep a cool northerly flow in place at the surface. Latest guidance suggests most showers remaining offshore so we did trend the forecast a bit drier and removed mention of thunder. Temps will stay below normal with highs generally in the lower 80s and lows generally around 60 inland and a bit warmer near the coast (esp Tue night). && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Near to below normal rain chances likely *No risk for severe storms/flash flooding *Mainly below normal temps Confidence: *Low to Moderate Details: A broad upper trough looks to remain in place at least through mid week with at least some weakening late in the week. At the surface, high pressure to the north will be giving way to weak low pressure from the south mid week, although the track/timing of this low is still a bit uncertain. A weak cold front then looks to approach late week, possibly even moving through SE NC and/or NE SC at some point. Still keeping rain chances fairly low for now given the uncertainty. Temps will be below normal through Wed night, then possibly get back closer to normal late week depending on rain/cloud coverage. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mainly VFR through the period after very brief occurrences of IFR ceilings and MVFR fog this morning. N-NE flow will continue as high pressure builds in from the north and low pressure remains well offshore through today. This tightened gradient flow will produce gusty NE winds through this afternoon. Enough drier air will move in from the north to suppress most shower activity. Best chance would be over coastal SC through early this morning, but did not include in TAF. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR with very brief restrictions possible due to a passing SHRA close to the coast. && .MARINE... Through tonight...Small Craft Advisory conditions will develop through this afternoon as gusty northeast winds develop in tightened gradient flow between high pressure building in from the north and low pressure in the offshore waters. Winds will reach up to 20 to 25 kts with gusts up around 30 kts. Seas around 2 to 3 ft will rise steadily through today in NE push, reaching 4 to 6 ft later today and peaking later tonight. Monday through Thursday...High pressure will remain centered to the north thru Tue night with elevated winds/seas around marginal Small Craft Advisory levels (25 kt and 6 ft) are expected into Mon night. The high should then weaken mid week as weak low pressure approaches from the south, likely passing over or near the area by the end of the period. Although there is some uncertainty regarding the track/timing of the low Wed/Thu, the chance for SCA conditions seems very low. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108- 110. SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1243428 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:00 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 645 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track northeastward along a stalled front off the NC coast today and tomorrow. Meanwhile, high pressure builds into the area from the north, and will build closer to the coast by early next week. Another area of low pressure may pass over or offshore of the area by mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 7 AM Sun...Today the area will be between strong high pressure building south from the Mid-Atlantic and a developing low pressure system well off the NC coast. This will result in breezy but mostly dry conditions for ENC, though a stalled boundary just off the coast will keep a threat for widely scattered showers (15-20% chance) along Downeast Carteret and the southern OBX. Temperatures will range from the upper 70s to around 80 along the coast to the low 80s inland. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... As of 2 AM Sun...Similar conditions are anticipated tonight with low pressure a few hundred miles off the NC coast and high pressure ridging south out of the Mid-Atlantic. A quiet night is expected inland with skies mostly clear and very light NE winds. While along the immediate coast there will be a continued chance of isolated to scattered showers (15-30% chance) with a weak boundary still right off the coast and a favorable dynamical environment with the axis of the upper level trough overhead. There will also be a significant spread in low temperatures with inland areas seeing lows in the upper 50s to low 60s, while temps remain in the lower 70s all night along the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 220 AM Sun... Key Messages - Below normal temperatures expected through midweek next week - Monitoring the potential for unsettled weather mid week next week - Forecast uncertainty beyond the next day or two remains above average. Monday and Tuesday...Troughing will remain over the Eastern Seaboard with an upper level low centered in the Northeastern CONUS moving little through Tuesday morning. This upper level low then moves off to the north and east Tue night into the Canadian Maritimes. Enhanced southern stream jet will also be noted extending from the Sargasso Sea west into the Deep South. This is notable as this will be the catalyst for surface low cyclogenesis off the Southeast Coast with this low forecast to deepen as it tracks north and east off the East Coast. At the same time, surface high pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes but will be wedging itself into the Mid- Atlantic. This is forecast to keep the aforementioned low off the coast of the Carolinas on Monday and Tuesday thus limiting any precip threat to along the coast and OBX. However, recent trends have shown this low becoming deeper and tracking further to the north than previously modeled which could result in windier conditions along the coast and OBX than previously expected. By Tue we are also monitoring a shortwave diving south across the Northern Plains along the periphery of the troughing over the Eastern CONUS. This lead shortwave will be out ahead of a much deeper trough diving S`wards from the Canadian Prairies towards the Great Lakes. At the surface this will result in a second area of cyclogenesis in the Central Plains with this surface cyclone and its associated front pushing further southwards towards the Gulf Coast States. Aforementioned shortwave has trended slower with its progression on recent model runs which results in slower surface low progression which has impacts on Wed and Thurs forecast. As a result we have lower than avg confidence in the forecast on Tue. Otherwise temps will continue to remain below avg through Tue with highs only getting into the mid 70s to low 80s. Lows get into the upper 50s inland to upper 60s across the OBX each night. Wed through next weekend...Low confidence forecast for the remainder of the extended range given large model spread in overall strength and position of upper level troughs and lower level features later next week. Lead shortwave trough is forecast to strengthen some on Wed/Thurs allowing broad troughing over the Eastern CONUS to deepen while southern stream jet strengthens further allowing for a deepening surface low in the Gulf. This deepening low is then forecast to track north and east on Wed/Thurs. Recent trends have slowed the progression of this low and trended towards a more offshore track, so impacts have lowered on Wed but have increased on Thurs as the low makes its closest point of approach. As a result, have the area precip free on Wed with SChc to Chc PoPs on Thurs to account for this recent trend. Given the lower confidence in the forecast, changes will likely be needed in the coming days. Otherwise strong upper trough dives into the Great Lakes and Northeast Wed through Fri with associated surface low and cold front pushing east towards ENC. High pressure is then forecast to build in from the west over the weekend. Again, guidance is having a hard time handling the strength and position of the upper level troughs, so confidence in the exact evolution of these features is low. But could see a low end threat for additional precip on Fri into the weekend. Temps remain below avg through Wed then increase closer to avg by the end of the week as NE`rly flow becomes more S`rly and low level thicknesses increase. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Monday Morning/... As of 7 AM Sun...Predominately VFR conditions will continue into Labor Day with high pressure over the area, while a stalled front lingers offshore. Skies aside from areas of mid and high clouds today, but there will be an increase in winds due to the tightening pressure gradient and wind gusts 20-25 mph are possible this afternoon. Winds subside tonight, and skies should remain mostly clear leading to continued VFR conditions. Along the immediate coast and OBX there may be some periods of sub-VFR conditions as isolated to scattered showers move through the area at times through tomorrow morning. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 220 AM Sun...Expect primarily VFR conditions across ENC through at least Tues outside of any shower or tstm activity along the immediate coast/OBX associated with a low which will be well offshore. Potential for sub-VFR chances increases around mid week next week with the approach of a low pressure system. Breezy NE`rly winds of 10-15 kts with gusts up to 15-25 kts are possible Mon especially across the OBX as the pressure gradient tightens between low pressure well to the east and high pressure to the north and west. Winds then ease from Tue onwards. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 7 AM Sun... Key Messages... - Small craft conditions to develop this morning across the coastal waters and most inland sounds and last through Labor Day The pressure gradient will tighten today between high pressure building in from the north and a developing low pressure system a few hundred miles south of the NC coast. This will bring increasing winds to the marine waters with Small Craft conditions developing later this morning as winds increase to NE 15-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts. NNE winds will continue to increase this afternoon to 20-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts and will continue at this strength for most of tonight. Across the western sounds and inland rivers winds will mostly remain 10-20 kts with some gusts approaching 25 kts through tonight. Seas will quickly increase to 3-5 ft later this morning, and will then build to 5-7 ft late this afternoon through tonight. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 220 AM Sun...Ongoing SCA conditions will be noted across all waters outside of the Neuse/Bay and Pamlico/Pungo Rivers as a tight pressure gradient between a departing low off to the east and a wedge of high pressure noted to the north keeps the gradient tight allowing for widespread 15-25 kt NE`rly winds with gusts up to 20-30 kts. Lightest winds will be noted in the aforementioned rivers. Seas along our coastal waters will be around 4-7 ft as well to start the day on Monday. As we go through the day on Mon, NE`rly winds should gradually ease from west to east down to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts as low pressure pulls away from the region. This should allow the SCA`s across our inland sounds and rivers to end Mon afternoon into Mon evening. NE`rly winds will continue to ease Mon night with gusts falling below 25 kts across all waters by Tue morning. However, 4-6 ft seas across our coastal waters will persist a little longer going into Tue evening before seas fall to 3-5 ft allowing the last of the SCA`s to end across our coastal waters. Afterwards, NE`rly winds ease to 5-10 kt by Wed morning with seas falling to 2-4 ft as high pressure ridging controls the ambient weather. Winds continue to remain light but gradually veer on Thurs and into the end of the week to a SE to S and then SW`rly direction as a cold front approaches from the west. Seas generally remain at 2-4 ft from Wed onwards as well. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-199- 204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT Monday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-158. && $$ |
| #1243427 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:00 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 645 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025 - Persistent troughing over the eastern U.S. will periodically enhance shower and storm coverage through mid week. - A low risk of excessive rainfall exists each day, particularly in areas that see repeated rounds of showers and storms. - Developing onshore flow will lead to a moderate risk for rip currents at area beaches; surf conditions are expected to deteriorate further on Labor Day, especially from Cape Canaveral northward. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 An anomalous trough over the eastern CONUS persists, maintaining generally westerly flow aloft across the state. At the surface, a nearly stationary front stretches across the northern Gulf Coast into the western Atlantic. Atmospheric moisture remains plentiful to the south of this boundary, with GOES derived precipitable water indicating 1.9 - 2.1" across the peninsula (between the 75th and 90th percentile for this time of year). Some subtle changes to the local pattern are anticipated today as shortwave energy aloft induces weak low pressure over the Atlantic. Developing north/northeast flow on the lows` backside will act to push the stalled front a bit further south. Meanwhile, continued west winds aloft will favor the eastern half of the peninsula for diurnally-driven convection this afternoon and evening. Convective allowing models are offering some hints into storm evolution today, though uncertainty is higher than usual given the anomalous pattern. Guidance suggests initial scattered nocturnal development over the eastern Gulf will move onshore the Nature Coast later this morning. From there, activity is expected to translate toward central and southern portions of the forecast area (from about Kissimmee to Melbourne south), increasing in coverage as it does so. Across northern areas, onshore flow developing within north to northeast surface flow should trigger scattered showers and storms separately. Attempted to show a slight variation to the PoP distribution today with 55 - 60% across the north, increasing to 70% across southern areas. As activity pushes offshore the Treasure Coast this evening, we`ll need to be on the lookout for onshore-moving showers and isolated storms from around Cape Canaveral northward overnight. Monday...The surface boundary will have likely shifted a bit further south over the area, closer to Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. This should induce onshore flow across most of the forecast area despite continued westerly flow aloft courtesy of the persistent eastern U.S. trough. Above normal rain chances are maintained, with morning coastal showers and storms spreading inland through the day. Of note, beach conditions are expected to become increasingly poor on the holiday given the increasing onshore flow, particularly north of Cape Canaveral. A building swell will likely induce a high risk for rip currents in these areas. Tuesday-Saturday...Both deterministic and ensemble guidance remain in good agreement through the end of the week, with an unusually strong signal for a reinforcing trough over the eastern CONUS. In fact, ECMWF and NAEFS ensembles show standardized height anomalies of -3 to -4 sigma centered over the midwest Thursday and Friday. Weak perturbations embedded within the base of the trough will translate across the Gulf from time to time through at least mid week, continuing the trend of unsettled conditions. While convective chances remain highest in the afternoon and evening, precip cannot be ruled out during the overnight given onshore flow and an active pattern aloft. Late in the week, as the trough axis shifts over the eastern seaboard, models hint at some modest drying aloft across our northern zones. While any hints of a cool down are likely to remain to our north (its still too early to talk cold fronts), a sharp north-to-south precip gradient is likely to occur. && .MARINE... Issued at 141 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Today...A weak surface boundary will settle southward over the local waters today, inducing north to northeast flow over the Volusia waters. Here, a small swell of of up to 3 - 4 feet will develop toward sunset. Mariners should be alert for thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds, with a better chance for offshore-movings storms south of Cape Canaveral. Monday-Wednesday...Unsettled conditions continue as deep moisture and a stationary boundary remain parked over the local waters - leading to above normal chances of showers and thunderstorms. Deteriorating marine conditions are forecast given strengthening northeast winds, up to 15-20 knots north of Cape Canaveral. Seas building to 3 - 5 feet (up to 6 feet offshore Volusia). Conditions improve some Wednesday as the surface boundary lifts back to the north and our local gradient weakens. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Weak frontal boundary across the area continues to pull deep moisture into central FL. Potential for morning showers across the I-4 corridor pushing in from the west. For this, we continue to carry VCSH at LEE/MCO/ISM around 14Z. With predominant WRLY flow expect additional activity across WCFL to spread eastward this aftn, with VCTS prevailing by around 17-18Z. With increasing confidence for above normal PoPs, TEMPOs included at most sites. An overall unsettled weather pattern may keep SHRA/TSRA into the evening hours and additional TEMPOs may be necessary. Continued mainly VFR, with tempo MVFR CIGs/VSBYs invof convection. Light winds will become NWRLY this morning as trough slides southward. Winds continue to veer N/NE (aftn-early eve) from near KMLB-KISM northward. Will need to monitor for "low-topped" showery precip along the coast this evening (perhaps overnight). && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 86 75 85 75 / 60 50 70 50 MCO 90 75 87 74 / 60 40 60 20 MLB 89 75 87 76 / 60 50 70 40 VRB 90 72 88 75 / 70 60 70 40 LEE 86 74 87 73 / 60 30 60 20 SFB 88 74 87 74 / 60 40 70 30 ORL 89 74 87 75 / 60 40 60 20 FPR 91 71 88 73 / 70 60 70 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1243426 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:54 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 645 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Continued dry and very pleasant conditions are expected with below average temperatures today into mid week. A cold front approaches late week with slightly warmer temperatures and a chance for showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 220 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Remaining dry today, becoming breezy along the coast of SE VA and NE NC. Remaining dry with below normal temperatures once again today, though with sfc high pressure slowly building E-SE from the Great Lakes, and a developing sfc trough off the Carolina coast, NE winds increase across SE VA and NE NC, especially near the coast, with gusts in the 20-25 mph range by late morning into the afternoon. The upper trough approaches from the NW with a low amplitude short wave moving through the base of the larger trough, resulting in more clouds by afternoon/evening. High temperatures look to be primarily in the mid to upper 70s with dew points from the upper 40s/lower 50s NW to the upper 50s in the SE. Clouds thin out overnight with temps in the low 50s W and NW to the low/mid 60s SE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 AM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - Streak of abnormally cool and dry August weather continues Monday and Tuesday. Basically a persistence forecast Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 70s to low 80s and dew points in the 50s. Remaining breezy near the coast Monday as coastal low pressure deepens offshore. Think the low remains far enough offshore to keep rain chances out of the area but there could be a stray shower or two near the northern OBX Monday afternoon. Mostly sunny for most of the area with more clouds expected SE/closer to the coastal trough/low. Temperatures will be similar on Tuesday with some afternoon cumulus clouds. Cool and dry again Tuesday night with lows back into the 50s and low 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 220 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Continued dry on Wednesday with slightly higher temps and humidity. - Chance for showers and maybe a few storms returns Thursday into Friday as a front approaches the region from the west and potentially interacts with a weak coastal low. High pressure over the region moves offshore on Wednesday, allowing winds to swing around to the SE and S. Temperatures increase into the low 80s for much of the area with dew points increasing into the mid and upper 50s to low 60s. Latest guidance keeps the area dry overnight with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Clouds increase on Thursday with a slight chance for showers across most of the area, slightly higher in the Piedmont and along the SE coastal counties as the surface cold front and another coastal trough interact. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s with a modest increase in humidity as dew points creep back into the low and mid 60s. Chance for showers continues into Thursday night and Friday, especially across the northern half of the area. 00z guidance begins to diverge thereafter with the GFS keeping unsettled conditions into the upcoming weekend while the ECMWF is dry and comfortable. Will stick close to the blended guidance, keeping temps in the upper 70s to low 80s Friday and Saturday with overnight lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 645 AM EDT Sunday... VFR conditions prevail through the 12z/31 TAF period. Mostly clear skies noted on satellite and surface observations with some clouds across the far northwest and into NE NC. Winds are generally light inland and NE 5-10 kt at ORF and ECG. NE winds 5-10 kt resume this morning at RIC, SBY, and PHF. ORF and ECG generally 10-15 kt with gusts ~20 kt. Passing short wave aloft will allow for SCT/BKN cirrus today. Some scattered CU is also possible late morning into the afternoon hours. Outlook: VFR conditions persist, with dry weather through midweek. Remaining breezy at the coast Monday. && .MARINE... As of 220 AM EDT Sunday... - A prolonged period of elevated onshore flow is expected beginning this afternoon and continuing through Monday. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for a portion of the coastal waters and lower Chesapeake Bay this afternoon into Monday night. Early this morning, high pressure is centered north of the area (over the Great Lakes). Meanwhile, ~1012 mb low pressure is located just off the far northern FL/southern GA coast. Winds range from E to NE over the waters, with wind speed ~5 knots north to 10 to 15 knots south. Seas are running around 2 to 3 feet, and waves in the Chesapeake Bay 1 to 2 feet. High pressure will remain in place (slightly north of the area) into early this week. The area of low pressure that is currently located off the FL/GA coast will start to move further to the NE and develop off the Carolina Coast over the next day or so. The gradient between the high to our north and low to our south will tighten, leading to increased onshore flow, especially across our southern waters, starting this later this morning and continuing through at least Monday. Wind speeds will average 10 to 20 knots during this time (highest S), but a period of 15 to 20 knot (locally 20-25 knot) winds is likely this afternoon into Monday, mainly on the coastal waters S of Parramore Island. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for coastal waters S of Parramore Island, the Currituck Sound, and the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. These this afternoon in the southern coastal waters, sound, and bay and tonight in the northern waters. Have also raised Small Craft Advisories for the lower Chesapeake Bay (south of New Point Comfort) and the far northern coastal waters, starting late this afternoon in the bay and tonight for the far northern coastal waters. These higher winds will also increase the seas to 4-6 ft, potentially a ft or so higher S of the NC/VA border. SCAs may also be needed for the remainder of the Chesapeake Bay around sunrise Monday AM, but will let the next shift reevaluate. Winds will relax a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday with mainly sub- SCA winds in the forecast late next week. Seas will remain at 2-3 ft in the Ocean and 1-2 ft in the Bay this morning ahead of the wind surge. The persistent onshore flow will result in building seas later today into Monday, with 4 to 6 feet seas forecast by tonight and Monday (and continuing through Tuesday before slowly subsiding). Rip Currents: The rip current risk will remain moderate across the southern beaches tomorrow, with a low risk across the northern beaches. As winds increase and become more onshore, the moderate risk will expand to the northern beaches on Monday and Tuesday. A high risk is now expected at the southern beaches Monday and Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... August 2025 will make the top 10 list for the coolest Augusts on record at Richmond, Salisbury, and Elizabeth City. Based on the forecast for the 31st (Sunday`s) temperatures, the best estimation is: - RIC: 7th or 8th coolest on record, coolest August since 1992. - SBY: 3rd or 4th coolest on record, coolest August since 2008. - ECG: 3rd or 4th coolest on record, coolest August since 1996. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ632. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ634-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ652-654. && $$ |
| #1243425 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:27 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 616 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Stationary boundary is draped from north central Florida westward through our Gulf waters. Surface high pressure located in the northeast US with ridging riding down the Appalachians will induce northeast surface winds across the Tri-State region. This will usher in drier air through the northern half of our CWA, hold the front at bay from moving much at all, and pin the seabreeze this afternoon closer to the coast. With higher PWATs located south of I10 and the seabreeze pinned, have better rain chances (30-50%) relegated in coastal sections, southeast Big Bend and extreme southern Georgia if convection moves that far northward. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies are on tap, northeast winds of 10-15 mph and highs in the mid to upper 80s. Tonight, lows will fall into the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A broad upper level trough will prevail over the eastern half of the country through much of the upcoming week. At the surface, an axis of surface high pressure will extend down the eastern portion of the Appalachians through much of the upcoming week and give much of the forecast area broad northeasterly flow. Light south and southwesterly flow develops late in the week and temperatures will warm. The upcoming week will generally be dry given the lack of appreciable moisture for shower/storm development. The broad frontal system that lingered over the forecast area through the weekend will continue to slowly push south on Labor Day as the axis of the surface high noses south into the forecast area. Any rain showers will likely be confined well to our south with only portions of the southeast Big Bend possibly seeing rain on Monday as these locations reside closer to the old frontal boundary. Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to see northeasterly flow across the region but as the next shortwave in the broad upper level trough approaches, we will begin to see light southerly return flow ahead of another cold front. This will begin to increase rain chances across the area on Wednesday, but given the lack of any appreciable low-level moisture rain chances are likely to remain quite low. For Thursday and into the upcoming weekend, the cold front will likely begin to stall but dry mid-level air in the upper level trough should supress much of the shower and storm potential and help temperatures warm back up into the low 90s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 MVFR/IFR cigs haven`t quite transpired as originally thought. Though, patchy stratus can be seen on latest satellite imagery. There remains a chance for stratus to affect TLH/ABY/VLD through the next several hours with VLD having the highest probs and kept a tempo group for this through 14Z while removed mention at the other sites. Otherwise, VFR is expected today and tonight as northeast winds bring drier air into the region. Some gusts this afternoon at ABY/VLD with speeds 14-17 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A frontal boundary over the nearshore waters will continue to settle further south into the Gulf into Tuesday. Northeasterly winds will be light through today but will likely increase Sunday night into Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens. This could lead to periods of cautionary or near-advisory conditions, especially in waters west of Apalachicola. The frontal boundary moves east Wednesday with winds decreasing and becoming generally westerly later in the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A drying trend takes hold over the next few days with afternoon and evening showers and thunder storms confined to the I-75 corridor of FL and the FL Big Bend. Moderate East-Northeast transport winds will be in place thru Tuesday with mixing heights away from the coast topping out around 5,000 feet. This promotes pockets of high afternoon dispersion across inland regions today and Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 As the frontal system slides south the higher rainfall totals will move south with it. Some rain is possible across the southeast Big Bend this afternoon but rainfall totals will be light and no hydrological concerns are anticipated. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 86 69 85 66 / 20 0 10 0 Panama City 88 71 89 69 / 20 10 20 10 Dothan 85 66 85 62 / 10 0 0 0 Albany 86 66 85 62 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 86 67 85 64 / 30 10 10 0 Cross City 88 71 88 68 / 60 20 30 10 Apalachicola 85 73 86 72 / 50 20 30 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243424 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:36 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 523 AM AST Sun Aug 31 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Today, an Extreme Heat Warning will be in effect from 10 AM through 5 PM for the coastal and urban areas of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and the US Virgin Islands. * The hot spell is expected to continue during the next couple of days for the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, with a moderate to high chance of issuing an Extreme Heat Warning or Heat Advisory each day. * Diurnal heating, local orographic effects and sea breeze convergence will promote strong afternoon thunderstorm development each day across portions of PR and possibly downwind from the USVI. In today`s case, a tropical wave moving south of the islands will also aid in their formation. * The risk of rip currents will remain low through at least midweek. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday... A calm and mostly clear night prevailed across the region, with only a few showers developing over the surrounding waters and some filtering over northeastern Puerto Rico. Overnight minimum temperatures remained in the mid-to-upper 70s across urban and coastal areas, while cooler readings in the mid-to-upper 60s were observed in mountainous and rural areas. Winds, similar to previous nights, were light and variable at times. For today, hot and humid conditions are expected once again. During the afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop, particularly across the interior and western municipalities of Puerto Rico. As light wind flow will prevail, this activity may become more widespread, with stronger thunderstorms possible, and some of the activity could linger into the evening hours, even after sunset. This pattern is consistent with recent days, as residual moisture from the tropical wave that continues to move south of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands keeps to interacting with very warm surface and ocean temperatures. Model guidance indicates precipitable water values between 1.70 and 1.80 inches, with 500 mb temperatures ranging from -8 to -7 degrees Celsius. These conditions will support instability and vertical growth of convection, increasing the potential for robust thunderstorms capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall. Residents and visitors are strongly encouraged to seek shelter immediately if thunder is heard or if rainfall and lightning activity are occurring nearby. Additionally, from 10 AM to 5 PM today, an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for all low-lying, urban, and coastal areas of Puerto Rico, as well as Saint Thomas, Saint John, and Saint Croix. Therefore, we anticipate a significant increase in the risk of heat- related illness, and we urge residents and visitors to stay well- hydrated, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the peak heating hours, never leave children or pets unattended in vehicles, and wear light, loose-fitting, and light-colored clothing. Looking ahead, the arrival of additional moisture by the beginning of the upcoming workweek is expected to sustain a similar weather pattern, characterized by excessive heat during the daytime, followed by strong afternoon convection across the interior and western sections of Puerto Rico. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday... A seasonal diurnal pattern is forecast during the second half of the workweek, as patches of moisture are steered towards the islands under east to east- southeast steering flow and weak mid to upper-level troughiness moves over the area. Precipitable water (PWAT) values will be at normal values for this time of the year, with afternoon convective activity reaching values above 2 inches. Current model guidance suggests widespread PWAT values reaching 2 inches during the weekend. A tropical wave will reach the islands on Saturday and its moisture will linger during the weekend. Current model guidance also suggests, an upper level low will also moving northeast of the islands late Saturday and Sunday. Overnight and morning passing showers will continue to affect the eastern region. Along with the above mentioned features, diurnal heating, orographic effects, east to east- southeast steering flow and sea breeze convergence will promote afternoon showers and t-storm activity, mainly over the interior to W-NW PR, as well as downwind of El Yunque and the local islands. Localized heavy downpours, lightning, and flooding risks will be possible with the afternoon activity. Per the August 31st 2 AM AST Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center, a tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa tomorrow, Monday, and has a low (30%) formation chance in the next 7 days. With 925 mb temperatures remaining above normal, up to elevated to possibly significant heat risk will remain during the period. Elevated to significant heat risks prompt the issuance of Heat Advisories and Extreme Heat Warnings, respectively. An elevated heat risk affects most individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. A significant heat risk affects anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) VFR conditions for most of the period across all TAF sites. However, VCTS/SHRA/TSRA associated with afternoon convection could lead to brief periods of MVFR conditions between 31/17-23Z, particularly at TJBQ, TJPS, and TJSJ. However, some rainfall activity could last after sunset. Light E winds will dominate, with some variation due to the sea breezes increasing after 31/13Z to around 315 kts, with occasional higher gusts, particularly with the heaviest thunderstorm activity. && .MARINE... Local effects and sea breeze variations will promote the development of strong thunderstorms across the western side of the islands that can move towards nearby waters. A weak tropical wave moving across the Caribbean Sea, and a surface high pressure system across the Atlantic Ocean will promote moderate easterly winds with moderate chop across the regional waters through early next week. && .BEACH FORECAST... The risk of rip currents will remain low through midweek. Even if the risk of rip currents is low, life-threatening rip currents often occur in the vicinity of groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001>005-007-008-010>013. VI...Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ001-002. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1243423 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 450 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...BREEZY WITH A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES... ...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR... ...WINDY WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ON LABOR DAY... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 450 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Early morning surface analysis depicts weak low pressure (1011 millibars) situated over the Gulf Stream waters adjacent to northeast FL, with coastal troughing beginning to sharpen over our near shore Atlantic waters. The low pressure center was located along a nearly stationary frontal boundary that stretches across north central FL and extends westward just to the south of the northern Gulf coast. Meanwhile, strengthening high pressure (1026 millibars) was building eastward from the Great Lakes region to New England and the Mid-Atlantic states. Aloft...deep troughing prevails over the eastern third of the nation, with ridging building from Texas and the Four Corners region northward through the Plains states. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a much drier air mass was filtering over locations along and north of Interstate 10, where PWATS have fallen below 1.5 inches for locations north of Waycross and 1.6 - 1.75 inches elsewhere. Deeper moisture has been shunted southeastward to north central and coastal northeast FL, where PWATS remain mostly in the 1.8 - 2 inch range. Low pressure offshore was allowing for lower stratus clouds and a few light showers to pinwheel along our Atlantic coastal communities, with low and mid level stratocumulus clouds expanding in coverage elsewhere. A convergent band of heavier downpours was setting up over the offshore waters adjacent to northeast FL, with this activity moving slowly southward. Otherwise, temperatures and dewpoints at 09Z have fallen to the mid and upper 60s for inland portions of southeast GA and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley, with mostly lower 70s elsewhere. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 450 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Our local pressure gradient will tighten from north to south today as strong high pressure stretching from the Great Lakes states eastward to New England will wedge down the southeastern seaboard. This feature will gradually push a broad, weak low pressure center located off the southeast GA coast southward in tandem with a frontal boundary that has been stuck over our region. Strengthening low level northeasterly flow will increase convergence along the southeast GA and northeast FL coasts during the predawn and early morning hours, with a tight moisture gradient in place along the I-95 corridor allowing for slow moving covergent bands of showers to increase in coverage and intensity early this morning. Meanwhile, a drier air mass will continue to filter into inland portions of southeast GA as well as northern portions of the Suwannee Valley today, allowing for breaks in the late morning cloud cover that will allow temperatures to warm back into the 80s for the first time in 3 days. Heavy showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will slowly shift southward as the day progresses, with the drier air mass likely limiting coverage to scattered by this afternoon for coastal southeast GA. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible along the I-95 corridor in northeast FL through this afternoon, with amounts around 1 inch at most locations by later this evening, with localized totals of 2-3 inches possible at coastal locations. Breezy north-northeasterly winds and stubborn low level stratus and marine stratocumulus should keep highs in the low to mid 80s at coastal locations today. A tight local pressure gradient will persist tonight, with the best coastal convergence remaining along the northeast FL coast, with persistent bands of locally heavy downpours potentially shifting inland across Clay and Putnam Counties as well. Breezy onshore winds will keep lows in the mid 70s along the northeast FL coast and the lower 70s for coastal southeast GA. Meanwhile, the drier air mass and clearing skies overnight will again allow lows to fall to the mid and upper 60s for inland southeast GA and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 450 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 The frontal boundary from the past weekend will continue to push south of the local area towards central FL as drier air continues to move into the area. This will limit precipitation chances for much of the interior locations of SE GA and NE FL. Onshore NE flow will become established as coastal troughing develops, allowing for gusty conditions along the coast. Scattered to numerous showers/storms will move in from the Atlantic towards coastal locations, with higher chances over coastal NE FL. WPC has highlighted coastal NE FL and north central FL counties for a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall on Monday, with the Marginal Risk Excessive Rainfall only expected along the north central FL counties on Tuesday as the frontal boundary begins to shift. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 450 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 By midweek, the frontal boundary over central FL will continue to shift northward as a weak surface low develops along the eastern sea board. The lifting boundary will allow for shower and storm coverage to increase from south to north across on Wednesday. By the later part of the upcoming week, drier conditions will once again begin to build into the local area as the front and low moves further towards the NE and the arrival of a dry cold front from the NW will see precipitation chances begin to trend downward once again. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 143 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Light showers developing along the Atlantic coast will increase in coverage as activity shifts southward across the CRG and SGJ terminals after 08Z. TEMPO groups for IFR conditions during heavier downpours were used during the predawn and early morning hours at CRG and SGJ, while confidence was only high enough for a PROB30 group overnight at SSI. Low MVFR ceilings at JAX and CRG will expand to the VQQ, GNV, and SGJ terminals after 08Z. Ceilings at SSI will likely lower to IFR towards 08Z, with these IFR ceilings overspreading the Duval County terminals before 12Z. Showers streaming over the CRG and SGJ terminals on Sunday morning may expand westward to JAX before noon a and then to VQQ by the mid to late afternoon hours, where PROB30 groups were used. Isolated thunderstorms may impact the northeast FL terminals on Sunday, but confidence in timing and coverage was too low to include a mention at this time. Ceilings will likely lift to low MVFR at the inland terminals by 15Z and the coastal terminals by 17Z. VFR conditions are expected to prevail at GNV towards 18Z. A northeasterly wind surge will arrive at SSI during the predawn and early morning hours, with sustained surface speeds increasing to around 15 knots and gusty after 13Z, with these gusty onshore winds then overspreading the Duval County terminals and SGJ after 15Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 450 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Low pressure located over the Gulf Stream waters adjacent to the GA coast will shift slowly southward across the offshore waters adjacent to northeast FL in tandem with a frontal boundary. Meanwhile, strengthening high pressure extending from the Great Lakes eastward across New England will wedge down the southeastern seaboard, sending a surge of northeasterly winds and building seas across our local waters from north to south today. Small Craft Advisory conditions will overspread the waters north of St. Augustine this afternoon as speeds increase to around 20 knots, with Caution conditions of 15-20 knots reach the waters south of St. Augustine later today. Seas will build to the 3-5 foot range across the waters north of St. Augustine this afternoon, with 2-4 foot seas for the waters south of St. Augustine. Seas will then build to Caution levels of 4-6 feet north of St. Augustine tonight and 3-5 feet for the waters south of St. Augustine. Seas will then peak on Monday and Monday night, with 5-7 foot seas for the waters north of St. Augustine, while seas reach Caution levels of 4-6 feet south of St. Augustine. Waves of showers and embedded thunderstorms will impact our local waters through midweek. Northeasterly winds will begin to gradually weaken by late Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing for seas to gradually subside. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will then decrease later this week as prevailing winds shift to westerly ahead of a series of approaching cold fronts. Rip Currents: Strengthening onshore winds from north to south across our region today will create a high risk of rip currents as breakers build to the 2-4 foot range this afternoon. Northeasterly winds will become windy on Monday, with breakers building further to the 3-5 foot range, keeping a high risk in place at all area beaches. Persistent onshore winds and only slowly subsiding surf conditions, with breakers generally remaining in the 2-4 foot range, will likely keep a high risk in place at all area beaches through midweek. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 450 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Heavy rainfall potential will mainly remained confined along the I-95 corridor and Atlantic Coastal Counties through midweek, with additional rainfall totals of 1-3 inches expected, with locally higher amounts possible. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has maintained "Marginal" Risks (level 1 of 4) for these areas through midweek, highlighting the risk for mainly localized flooding. Lower total amounts expected over inland northeast and north central FL, but with daytime heating, any of the isolated thunderstorm activity will still have heavy rainfall potential. However, the main threat will still be along the Atlantic Coastal areas, where narrow convergent rain bands set up in the strong onshore wind pattern that develops later today, with downpours potentially "training" or repeatedly impacting the same locations within some of these rain bands. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 85 65 84 63 / 30 0 10 0 SSI 83 73 83 73 / 60 40 40 20 JAX 85 72 84 71 / 60 30 60 20 SGJ 86 74 85 74 / 60 50 70 30 GNV 88 70 86 69 / 60 10 50 10 OCF 87 72 86 72 / 70 10 60 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from 11 AM EDT this morning through late Monday night for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. GA...High Rip Current Risk from 11 AM EDT this morning through late Monday night for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT Monday for AMZ450-470. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT Monday for AMZ452-472. && $$ |
| #1243422 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 453 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 450 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Conditions have quieted down across the Florida Keys this morning after another wave of active wet season weather scraped over the island chain late last night. What was broken lines of scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms is now just elevated cloud debris gradually dispersing aloft. KAMX radar detects some of the remains of those showers along with a little bit of convection pulsing up in the Gulf just north of our waters. As expected, GOES-19 Nighttime Microphysics shows deteriorating stratus over the island chain. Current temperature observations along the Keys report values in the lower 80s with moist dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. Meanwhile, gentle to occasionally moderate southwest to west breezes stubbornly prevail along the Reef looking like they have fully recovered after last night`s convective contamination. The short term forecast is quite similar to what we observed yesterday. The Keys are currently situated between ridging in the Caribbean and troughing along the Eastern Seaboard thus allowing for westerly winds throughout a good chunk of our thermodynamic profile. Last night`s KKEY 00z balloon sounding confirms this with westerlies observed from the surface to just before 300 mb. The sounding also notes a PW of 2.13 inches, just 0.05 inches shy of the 90th percentile for today, along with an MLCAPE value greater than 2300 J/kg. It is no wonder why a wave of showers and thunderstorms was able to proliferate as well as they did. CIMSS MIMIC TPW shows our area is entrenched in similar PWAT values. Due to how unchanged our thermodynamic profile and our wind field is from yesterday, have opted to keep chance showers and thunderstorms in the short term forecast. Not much change to the overall pattern and the resulting sensible weather in the Keys over the next several days. While the trough along the Eastern Seaboard will shift east into the western North Atlantic, it is expected to stall out while a surface low develops off of Georgia`s coastline. While high pressure will build back into eastern CONUS, the stalled out trough and its surface reflection will keep Keys breezes westerly until the end of the week when high pressure finally spreads over mainland Florida. As little change is currently expected, persistence continues to be the best forecast with above normal PoPs at 50% along with a chance of thunderstorms. High and low temperatures will stay near 90 and in the lower 80s (outside of precipitation) respectively as breezes generally remain out of the west. && .MARINE... Issued at 450 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, somewhat unusual gentle westerly breezes prevail across the Florida Keys as our area is situated between ridging in the Caribbean and troughing along the Eastern Seaboard. This pattern will remain relatively unchanged throughout the forecast as the trough lazes over the east coast of CONUS while a surface low develops along the Georgia coastline. This low is progged to meander off into the western North Atlantic and rest on the west edge of the Bermuda High promoting an extension of the already established pattern in the Keys. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 450 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 VFR conditions expected to last through this morning. We are expecting another potentially active period this afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, exact timing and location remain uncertain and will have to be addressed as conditions manifest. Outside of convection winds will remain out of the southwest and west at less than 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... In 1889, Key West experienced its coldest August ever with an average temperature of 81.0F in each occurrence. In 1953, Marathon experienced its coldest August ever, with an average temperature of 81.9F. Monthly temperature records for Key West date back to 1872, and date back to 1950 for Marathon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 92 81 91 81 / 50 40 50 50 Marathon 91 80 90 80 / 50 50 50 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243420 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:57 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 343 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Unsettled pattern with previously advertised wetter and relatively cooler conditions will settle into the area today in association with a stalled surface boundary and westerly flow aloft south of E CONUS longwave troughing. Shortwave impulses propagating through the flow aloft aiding instability and overspreading moisture associated with the surface boundary will lead to periods of showers and storms across the region, favoring and spreading ashore coastal locations during the mornings before expanding into and becoming more numerous over the interior in the afternoons. Given the persistent soggy conditions, a Marginal Risk for potential flooding exists for all of W FL and the peninsula today into mid week, most likely in areas receiving heavier downpours relatively quickly allowing for ponding of water in typical flood prone urban, low lying and poor drainage locations. While some drier air intrusions will be possible north of the boundary that would act to limit overall rain chances, the boundary is expected to remain generally over the northern or central peninsula, favoring at least scattered to numerous showers and storms each day into mid week. Currently, most likely expected rainfall amounts range from 1-3 inches north of I-4, to 2-4 inches south of I-4, with locally higher amounts possible particularly for WC/SWFL and coastal locations. A shortwave dropping across the Lower MS Valley and rounding the base of the longwave trough across the SE U.S. mid to late week will potentially provide a bit of a push to nudge the boundary into S FL or the FL Straits enabling relatively drier air to filter deeper into the peninsula leading to a decrease in rain chances late week into next weekend. In response, high temps would likely warm a few degrees back into the lower 90s, after being limited mainly to the upper 80s today through mid week due to the anticipated additional cloudiness. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 130 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 VFR expected remainder of tonight before morning showers develop over the coastal waters and begin to push onshore, with VCSH across terminals mid to late morning then VCTS mention around noon. TEMPO sub-VFR conditions with convection most likely early through mid afternoon for northern (TPA/PIE/LAL/SRQ) terminals and mid to late afternoon for southern (PGD/FMY/RSW) terminals. Convection likely to linger into the evening with continued VCSH mention then gradually tapering off through around midnight. Onshore/westerly flow for majority of the period, however with a boundary perhaps sagging further south into the central peninsula could see winds shift to E/NE to its north across northern terminals late evening, with southern terminals remaining variable. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A quasi-stationary frontal boundary will linger over the waters through the next few days, with deep moisture leading to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. Winds will generally remain less than headline criteria, although daily thunderstorms will produce locally gusty winds rough seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Increased shower and storm chances through the early part of the week as a weak frontal boundary brings additional moisture and instability into the area. Scattered to numerous storms likely each day, with the greatest potential for storms near the coast generally in the morning to early afternoon, with the higher chances inland during the afternoon and evening across the interior. Minimal fire weather concerns expected through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 89 77 89 75 / 70 40 60 30 FMY 89 75 91 75 / 70 50 70 40 GIF 90 74 89 74 / 70 40 60 10 SRQ 89 74 89 74 / 60 40 60 40 BKV 87 71 88 70 / 70 30 60 20 SPG 86 76 88 75 / 70 40 60 40 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1243419 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:27 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 320 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025 - Persistent troughing over the eastern U.S. will periodically enhance shower and storm coverage through mid week. - A low risk of excessive rainfall exists each day, particularly in areas that see repeated rounds of showers and storms. - Developing onshore flow will lead to a moderate risk for rip currents at area beaches; surf conditions are expected to deteriorate further on Labor Day, especially from Cape Canaveral northward. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 An anomalous trough over the eastern CONUS persists, maintaining generally westerly flow aloft across the state. At the surface, a nearly stationary front stretches across the northern Gulf Coast into the western Atlantic. Atmospheric moisture remains plentiful to the south of this boundary, with GOES derived precipitable water indicating 1.9 - 2.1" across the peninsula (between the 75th and 90th percentile for this time of year). Some subtle changes to the local pattern are anticipated today as shortwave energy aloft induces weak low pressure over the Atlantic. Developing north/northeast flow on the lows` backside will act to push the stalled front a bit further south. Meanwhile, continued west winds aloft will favor the eastern half of the peninsula for diurnally-driven convection this afternoon and evening. Convective allowing models are offering some hints into storm evolution today, though uncertainty is higher than usual given the anomalous pattern. Guidance suggests initial scattered nocturnal development over the eastern Gulf will move onshore the Nature Coast later this morning. From there, activity is expected to translate toward central and southern portions of the forecast area (from about Kissimmee to Melbourne south), increasing in coverage as it does so. Across northern areas, onshore flow developing within north to northeast surface flow should trigger scattered showers and storms separately. Attempted to show a slight variation to the PoP distribution today with 55 - 60% across the north, increasing to 70% across southern areas. As activity pushes offshore the Treasure Coast this evening, we`ll need to be on the lookout for onshore-moving showers and isolated storms from around Cape Canaveral northward overnight. Monday...The surface boundary will have likely shifted a bit further south over the area, closer to Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. This should induce onshore flow across most of the forecast area despite continued westerly flow aloft courtesy of the persistent eastern U.S. trough. Above normal rain chances are maintained, with morning coastal showers and storms spreading inland through the day. Of note, beach conditions are expected to become increasingly poor on the holiday given the increasing onshore flow, particularly north of Cape Canaveral. A building swell will likely induce a high risk for rip currents in these areas. Tuesday-Saturday...Both deterministic and ensemble guidance remain in good agreement through the end of the week, with an unusually strong signal for a reinforcing trough over the eastern CONUS. In fact, ECMWF and NAEFS ensembles show standardized height anomalies of -3 to -4 sigma centered over the midwest Thursday and Friday. Weak perturbations embedded within the base of the trough will translate across the Gulf from time to time through at least mid week, continuing the trend of unsettled conditions. While convective chances remain highest in the afternoon and evening, precip cannot be ruled out during the overnight given onshore flow and an active pattern aloft. Late in the week, as the trough axis shifts over the eastern seaboard, models hint at some modest drying aloft across our northern zones. While any hints of a cool down are likely to remain to our north (its still too early to talk cold fronts), a sharp north-to-south precip gradient is likely to occur. && .MARINE... Issued at 141 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Today...A weak surface boundary will settle southward over the local waters today, inducing north to northeast flow over the Volusia waters. Here, a small swell of of up to 3 - 4 feet will develop toward sunset. Mariners should be alert for thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds, with a better chance for offshore-movings storms south of Cape Canaveral. Monday-Wednesday...Unsettled conditions continue as deep moisture and a stationary boundary remain parked over the local waters - leading to above normal chances of showers and thunderstorms. Deteriorating marine conditions are forecast given strengthening northeast winds, up to 15-20 knots north of Cape Canaveral. Seas building to 3 - 5 feet (up to 6 feet offshore Volusia). Conditions improve some Wednesday as the surface boundary lifts back to the north and our local gradient weakens. .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 120 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Weak frontal boundary across the area continues to pull deep moisture into central FL. Continued mainly dry overnight, but will watch for some morning showers across the I-4 corridor pushing in from the west. For this potential, continue to carry VCSH at LEE/MCO/ISM around 14Z. With predominant WRLY flow expect additional activity across WCFL to spread eastward Sun aftn, with VCTS prevailing by around 17-18Z. With increasing confidence for above normal PoPs, TEMPOs included at most sites. An overall unsettled weather pattern may keep SHRA/TSRA into the evening hours and additional TEMPOs may be necessary. Continued mainly VFR, with tempo MVFR CIGs/VSBYs invof convection. Light winds will become NWRLY Sun morning as trough slides southward. Winds continue to veer N/NE (aftn-early eve) from near KMLB-KISM northward. Will need to monitor for "low-topped" showery precip along the coast Sun evening (perhaps overnight). && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 86 75 85 75 / 60 50 70 50 MCO 90 75 87 74 / 60 40 60 20 MLB 89 75 87 76 / 60 50 70 40 VRB 90 72 88 75 / 70 60 70 40 LEE 86 74 87 73 / 60 30 60 20 SFB 88 74 87 74 / 60 40 70 30 ORL 89 74 87 75 / 60 40 60 20 FPR 91 71 88 73 / 70 60 70 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1243417 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:06 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 255 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in control through at least Thursday, bringing an extended stretch of dry weather, seasonable temperatures and northeast breezes. Northeast winds may become a little stronger on Tuesday for southeast New England as low pressure passes well east of the benchmark. Turns warmer and a little more humid by Friday, with a cold front bringing a welcomed rain. High pressure returns for the weekend, bringing Cooler temperatures and dry weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 230 AM Update: Key Messages: * Mostly sunny and dry with seasonable temps, although with seabreezes near the coasts. Highs 70s with lows in the upper 40s to the mid 50s. Details: No substantive change to the large-scale pattern driving our weather, with the main features being a deamplifying upper low over northeast ME and sfc ridging extending SE into southern New England from a large 1024 mb high pressure over northern Wisconsin. For most away from the coast, light winds and a cool airmass is allowing for current temps more reminiscent of early Fall with values in the 40s to lower 50s. Otherwise, dry weather continues to govern with low precipitable water values. Expect another day of dry weather, plenty of sun and seasonable temperatures to mark the close to August today. Only difference is that winds will be lighter and turn onshore as we move into the late morning to early afternoon, keeping coastal areas a few degrees cooler than well inland. Highs reaching into the 70s with full sun with upper 70s/near 80 CT Valley, but in the low 70s near the coasts with a light onshore breeze. Mostly clear and dry weather tonight too for the majority of Southern New England. While light, may be just enough of an onshore wind to keep temps slightly milder for the southern coasts. Upper-level moisture may also advect northward leading to some increased high clouds for the southern roughly third of Southern New England. Lows upper 40s to mid 50s, with mid/upper 50s near the southeast coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 230 AM Update: Key Messages: * Onshore flow continues Mon and Tue but still dry with seasonable temps. * NE winds increase on Tue over southeast MA and the Cape/Islands to around 15-20 mph. * Borderline, but monitoring for possible rip currents against east- facing beaches Tue as low pressure passes well east of 40N/70W. Details: Monday and Tuesday: Sfc high pressure will shift into ME on Monday and remain in place through Tuesday. This will keep an onshore NE flow going, with somewhat milder but still seasonable temps inland and cooler temps near the eastern coasts. A shortwave disturbance aloft seen on early- morning water vapor imagery near NW Ohio digs southeast today and closes off over the mid-Atlantic states tonight, which then rotates N/NW into NY/western New England by early on Tue. What this feature will do for Monday is draw a stream of mid to upper-level moisture northward, leading to a more filtered-sun look but it`s otherwise a continued dry day with deep dry air seen on model forecast soundings. Highs on Monday in the 70s, except low 70s near the coast. For Tuesday, a weak low pressure currently off the Carolinas is forecast to pass well east of 40N/70W, with pretty strong model consensus on that track. With sfc high pressure still in control, expect another day of dry weather and seasonable for the majority of Southern New England. For southeast New England though, and especially for Cape Cod and the Islands, with a tightening gradient, expect a bit stronger northeast breezes to around 15-20 mph. Something we`ll be watching for Tuesday too is the potential for rip currents on the east-facing coasts of Cape Cod and Nantucket, as this low pressure passes well to our east; it`s borderline, but it`s notable that the ECMWF model shows offshore waves building to about 6 ft Tuesday. With beaches becoming unguarded, we might need to consider a rip current statement at worst, but forecast wave heights look too low for high surf advisories. Otherwise, highs should again reach into the 70s, though it may be a struggle to reach the low 70s with the breezes over southeast MA and the Cape/Islands. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages: * Dry weather, seasonable temps with seabreezes through at least Thurs. * Brief warming trend Fri and turning a little more humid, as cold front is likely to bring welcomed rains. * Cooling off and turning less humid into the weekend. Details: Still under high pressure with dry and seasonable weather through Thursday. Thus, expect a continuation of the same themes with seasonable temps, dry weather, plenty of sun during the day and clear skies/cooler nights. Looks to turn a little more humid, but not oppressively so, as we move into late Thurs and Fri, due to increased southerly flow ahead of a digging upper low over the Gt Lakes. Its related sfc frontal system looks to arrive on Fri and taps into a subtropical airmass in the southerly flow (PWATs around 1.5 inches, which are about 2 standard deviations above normal). Thus we should see a pretty decent and welcomed rainfall with PoPs in the high chance to Likely range. We then dry out and cool off again for the weekend. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update: Through Monday Night: High confidence. VFR through the period. Winds start off light NW to N today but become onshore around 5-10 kt late this morning, becoming light NE tonight. A bit more in the way of high clouds for Monday but still VFR with NE winds around 5-10 kt. Still VFR for Monday night and Tuesday, but NE winds pick up a bit, especially along the southeast coast. While winds are light northerly for most of Southern New England, NE winds become around 10-15 kt for the east coast and around 15-20 kt for the Cape and Islands. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Thursday/... Tuesday Night: VFR. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Monday Night: High confidence. Winds/seas below SCA criterion in this period. Light N winds become NE/E today around 10-15 kt, becoming light tonight. NE winds around 5-10 kt Monday, increasing to around 15-20 kt Mon night. Seas 4ft or less all waters. Tuesday: Moderate confidence. NE winds increase to near-SCA levels (around 20-25 kt) over the southeast waters, with seas nearing 4-6 ft. May need SCAs for waters adjacent to Cape Cod and the Islands. Possible risk of rip currents against east-facing beaches. Elsewhere, NE winds around 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt and seas 4 ft or less. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Thursday/... Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1243416 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:00 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 247 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the north today and maintain control through Tuesday before weak low pressure likely impacts the area mid week. A weak cold front could then impact the area late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Boundary along the coast along with land breeze producing spotty showers early this morning. Expect mainly spotty showers earlier today closer to the coast and offshore, but as dry high pressure builds in from the north, expect mainly higher clouds by later today. GFS shows higher pcp water values along and just off the coast this morning, but diminishing to near and inch by later today. Looking at the sounding profiles, it looks like mid to high clouds will basically be passing overhead around base of mid to upper trough, with considerable dry air moving in within the low levels. Gusty northeast winds will develop today as high pressure builds in from the north and low pressure moves up through the offshore waters producing breezy conditions through this afternoon. Expect below normal temps with highs today in the low 80s most places. Dewpoint temps well into the 60s early this morning will drop out into the 50s inland by later today, allowing for overnight lows tonight to drop closer to 60 and possibly below over inland areas. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Near to below normal rain chances, mainly near the coast *No risk for severe storms/flash flooding *Below normal temps Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: No major changes from the previous forecast. Inland high pressure and offshore low pressure will keep a cool northerly flow in place at the surface. Latest guidance suggests most showers remaining offshore so we did trend the forecast a bit drier and removed mention of thunder. Temps will stay below normal with highs generally in the lower 80s and lows generally around 60 inland and a bit warmer near the coast (esp Tue night). && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Near to below normal rain chances likely *No risk for severe storms/flash flooding *Mainly below normal temps Confidence: *Low to Moderate Details: A broad upper trough looks to remain in place at least through mid week with at least some weakening late in the week. At the surface, high pressure to the north will be giving way to weak low pressure from the south mid week, although the track/timing of this low is still a bit uncertain. A weak cold front then looks to approach late week, possibly even moving through SE NC and/or NE SC at some point. Still keeping rain chances fairly low for now given the uncertainty. Temps will be below normal through Wed night, then possibly get back closer to normal late week depending on rain/cloud coverage. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mainly VFR through the period. N-NE flow will continue as high pressure builds in from the north and low pressure remains well offshore through today. This tightened gradient flow will produce gusty NE winds through this afternoon. Enough drier air will move in from the north to suppress most shower activity. MYR has the best chance through early this morning and have included a Prob30 for MVFR ceilings, while LBT has calm winds and may see some fog and stratus up until 12z. Extended Outlook...Brief restrictions due to a passing SHRA or TSRA are possible each afternoon, especially closer to the coast. && .MARINE... Through tonight...Small Craft Advisory conditions will develop through this afternoon as gusty northeast winds develop in tightened gradient flow between high pressure building in from the north and low pressure in the offshore waters. Winds will reach up to 20 to 25 kts with gusts up around 30 kts. Seas around 2 to 3 ft will rise steadily through today in NE push, reaching 4 to 6 ft later today and peaking later tonight. Monday through Thursday...High pressure will remain centered to the north thru Tue night with elevated winds/seas around marginal Small Craft Advisory levels (25 kt and 6 ft) are expected into Mon night. The high should then weaken mid week as weak low pressure approaches from the south, likely passing over or near the area by the end of the period. Although there is some uncertainty regarding the track/timing of the low Wed/Thu, the chance for SCA conditions seems very low. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108-110. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1243415 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:00 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 250 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend across the area through mid week while a stationary front lingers just off the coast. A cold front will move through Thursday night or Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: Aloft, mid-lvl troughing extending from the Northeast to Southeast United States will attempt to become cutoff across the Mid- Atlantic states by this evening, favoring subtle/weak shortwave energy to traverse the region throughout much of the day. At the sfc, low pressure will continue to pull further offshore and away from the local area, allowing high pressure to build inland throughout the afternoon. A weaker boundary associated with this airmass should remain closer/stall near the coast, currently depicted on radar imagery just off the South Carolina beaches. This boundary should become the primary focus in regards to potential shower and/or thunderstorm activity developing nearby late morning into early afternoon, with activity potentially shifting back onshore within a low-lvl northeast flow. However, the environment is quite different in regards to deep moisture compared to yesterday (PWATs now between 1.25 to 1.50 inches), with water vapor imagery also indicating a fairly substantial amount of dry air across the local area in the mid-lvls, which is also depicted in local soundings. This should tend to favor any convection struggling to persist if drifting onshore, and likely lead to much lower rainfall amounts than experienced the previous day, generally under 1/4 inch near the coast. Additionally, the pressure gradient will strengthen between high pressure inland and low pressure offshore, setting up breezy northeast winds along the coastal corridor. Gusts should generally top out near 20-30 mph this afternoon. Despite high pressure building across the area and north-northeast winds prevailing for much of the day, the lack of precip and lack of significant cloud cover should lead to warmer temps compared to the previous day, with highs generally peaking in the low-mid 80s, warmest across Southeast Georgia away from the coast. Tonight: Any convection able to develop near coastal areas during the day will quickly come to an end with the loss of daytime heating. The mid-upper lvl low becomes more cutoff while high pressure prevails across the Southeast through the night. The pattern favors dry and cooler conditions for all areas as light northeasterly winds occur for a bulk of the night. Low temps should generally range in the lower 60s inland to mid-upper 60s closer to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Cool and dry high pressure north of the region will continue to ridge down the Eastern Seaboard Monday and Tuesday, maintaining a relatively dry airmass over the area with temps below normal. By Tuesday afternoon, there could be enough moisture moving into coastal GA to squeeze out a few showers. An approaching upper trough mid week will push the surface high off the Mid-Atlantic coast, allowing moisture to increase over the area. The cold advection will wane, with temps rising a couple degrees. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, especially in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A weak cold front will move through Thursday night or Friday, then a potentially stronger cold front will move through late in the weekend. Relatively quiet weather is anticipated with temps getting back close to normal. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions should prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 00Z Monday. However, low clouds could drift back onshore between 06Z-12Z Sunday, leading to TEMPO MVFR cigs at any terminal. The greatest potential for this to occur should be at SAV, where a TEMPO group for MVFR cigs between 08Z-12Z has been included in the most recent TAF issuance. The bulk of guidance suggests high pressure to build across the area while low pressure pulls further away from the coast Sunday afternoon. A few showers could develop near the coast prior to this occurring, so VCSH remains in the forecast at CHS/SAV late morning, but showers could linger a bit longer at JZI given its closer proximity to the coast. Extended Aviation Forecast: Mainly VFR. Afternoon showers/tstms will return Wed and Thu, possibly resulting in brief flight restrictions. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: The pressure gradient will strengthen across local waters as high pressure builds inland and low pressure exits further offshore. This will favor northeasterly winds gusting upwards to 25-30 kt by late morning and conditions persisting through the remainder of the day and the night. Seas will also respond by building across local waters, generally to 5-7 ft, largest across nearshore waters off the Charleston County Coast and across outer Georgia waters. Small Craft Advisories remain in place today and tonight, starting across coastal waters at 6 AM this morning, with the exception being across the Charleston Harbor, which starts at 10 AM this morning. Seas of 6 ft or greater as well as occasional 25 kt gusts will continue through Monday evening for the nearshore waters and through Monday night for the offshore waters. Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Conditions improve thereafter as the surface high to the north begins to weaken, relaxing the gradient. Rip Currents: Increasing swell height/period and enhanced onshore flow will result in a Moderate risk today and High risk Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The persistent NE flow will result in steadily building tidal departures through early in the week, with anomalies potentially getting above 1 ft. At the moment, tides in Charleston should fall just short of minor flooding, but it could be close with the Mon and Tue afternoon high tides. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ330. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ350-352-354. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1243414 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:36 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 223 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track northeastward along a stalled front off the NC coast today and tomorrow. Meanwhile, high pressure builds into the area from the north, and will build closer to the coast by early next week. Another area of low pressure may pass over or offshore of the area by mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 2 AM Sun...A backdoor front continues to slowly sink southwestward early this morning, entering the Cape Fear region over land, but remaining just off the southern NC coast up to Cape Hatteras. This front continues to produce scattered but brief rain showers along it, while at the same time upper level shortwave energy passing overhead has led to some light rain falling out of mid and high level clouds along the coast and offshore. For the rest of the night expect shower coverage to decrease inland and focus mostly along the immediate coast and Outer Banks. Low temps will range from the low 60s over the inner coastal plain, where skies are mostly clear and winds light, to the low 70s along the coast. Today the area will be between strong high pressure building south from the Mid-Atlantic and a developing low pressure system well off the NC coast. This will result in breezy but mostly dry conditions for ENC, though a stalled boundary just off the coast will keep a threat for widely scattered showers (15-20% chance) along coastal Downeast Carteret and along the southern OBX. Temperatures will range from the upper 70s to around 80 along the coast to the low 80s inland. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 2 AM Sun...Similar conditions are anticipated tonight with low pressure a few hundred miles off the NC coast and high pressure ridging south out of the Mid-Atlantic. A quiet night is expected inland with skies mostly clear and very light NE winds. While along the immediate coast there will be a continued chance of isolated to scattered showers (15-30% chance) with a weak boundary still right off the coast and a favorable dynamical environment with the axis of the upper level trough overhead. There will also be a significant spread in low temperatures with inland areas seeing lows in the upper 50s to low 60s, while temps remain in the lower 70s all night along the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 220 AM Sun... Key Messages - Below normal temperatures expected through midweek next week - Monitoring the potential for unsettled weather mid week next week - Forecast uncertainty beyond the next day or two remains above average. Monday and Tuesday...Troughing will remain over the Eastern Seaboard with an upper level low centered in the Northeastern CONUS moving little through Tuesday morning. This upper level low then moves off to the north and east Tue night into the Canadian Maritimes. Enhanced southern stream jet will also be noted extending from the Sargasso Sea west into the Deep South. This is notable as this will be the catalyst for surface low cyclogenesis off the Southeast Coast with this low forecast to deepen as it tracks north and east off the East Coast. At the same time, surface high pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes but will be wedging itself into the Mid- Atlantic. This is forecast to keep the aforementioned low off the coast of the Carolinas on Monday and Tuesday thus limiting any precip threat to along the coast and OBX. However, recent trends have shown this low becoming deeper and tracking further to the north than previously modeled which could result in windier conditions along the coast and OBX than previously expected. By Tue we are also monitoring a shortwave diving south across the Northern Plains along the periphery of the troughing over the Eastern CONUS. This lead shortwave will be out ahead of a much deeper trough diving S`wards from the Canadian Prairies towards the Great Lakes. At the surface this will result in a second area of cyclogenesis in the Central Plains with this surface cyclone and its associated front pushing further southwards towards the Gulf Coast States. Aforementioned shortwave has trended slower with its progression on recent model runs which results in slower surface low progression which has impacts on Wed and Thurs forecast. As a result we have lower than avg confidence in the forecast on Tue. Otherwise temps will continue to remain below avg through Tue with highs only getting into the mid 70s to low 80s. Lows get into the upper 50s inland to upper 60s across the OBX each night. Wed through next weekend...Low confidence forecast for the remainder of the extended range given large model spread in overall strength and position of upper level troughs and lower level features later next week. Lead shortwave trough is forecast to strengthen some on Wed/Thurs allowing broad troughing over the Eastern CONUS to deepen while southern stream jet strengthens further allowing for a deepening surface low in the Gulf. This deepening low is then forecast to track north and east on Wed/Thurs. Recent trends have slowed the progression of this low and trended towards a more offshore track, so impacts have lowered on Wed but have increased on Thurs as the low makes its closest point of approach. As a result, have the area precip free on Wed with SChc to Chc PoPs on Thurs to account for this recent trend. Given the lower confidence in the forecast, changes will likely be needed in the coming days. Otherwise strong upper trough dives into the Great Lakes and Northeast Wed through Fri with associated surface low and cold front pushing east towards ENC. High pressure is then forecast to build in from the west over the weekend. Again, guidance is having a hard time handling the strength and position of the upper level troughs, so confidence in the exact evolution of these features is low. But could see a low end threat for additional precip on Fri into the weekend. Temps remain below avg through Wed then increase closer to avg by the end of the week as NE`rly flow becomes more S`rly and low level thicknesses increase. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Monday Morning/... As of 2 AM Sun...Predominately VFR conditions will continue into Labor Day with high pressure over the area, while a stalled front lingers offshore. Skies aside from areas of mid and high clouds today, but there will be an increase in winds due to the tightening pressure gradient and wind gusts 20-25 mph are possible this afternoon. Winds subside tonight, and skies should remain mostly clear leading to continued VFR conditions. Along the immediate coast and OBX there may be some periods of sub-VFR conditions as isolated to scattered showers move through the area at times through tomorrow morning. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 220 AM Sun...Expect primarily VFR conditions across ENC through at least Tues outside of any shower or tstm activity along the immediate coast/OBX associated with a low which will be well offshore. Potential for sub-VFR chances increases around mid week next week with the approach of a low pressure system. Breezy NE`rly winds of 10-15 kts with gusts up to 15-25 kts are possible Mon especially across the OBX as the pressure gradient tightens between low pressure well to the east and high pressure to the north and west. Winds then ease from Tue onwards. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 2 AM Sun... Key Messages... - Small craft conditions to develop this morning across the coastal waters and most inland sounds and last through Labor Day The pressure gradient will tighten today between high pressure building in from the north and a developing low pressure system a few hundred miles south of the NC coast. This will bring increasing winds to the marine waters with Small Craft conditions developing later this morning as winds increase to NE 15-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts. NNE winds will continue to increase this afternoon to 20-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts and will continue at this strength for most of tonight. Across the western sounds and inland rivers winds will mostly remain 10-20 kts with some gusts approaching 25 kts through tonight. Seas will quickly increase to 3-5 ft later this morning, and will then build to 5-7 ft late this afternoon through tonight. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 220 AM Sun...Ongoing SCA conditions will be noted across all waters outside of the Neuse/Bay and Pamlico/Pungo Rivers as a tight pressure gradient between a departing low off to the east and a wedge of high pressure noted to the north keeps the gradient tight allowing for widespread 15-25 kt NE`rly winds with gusts up to 20-30 kts. Lightest winds will be noted in the aforementioned rivers. Seas along our coastal waters will be around 4-7 ft as well to start the day on Monday. As we go through the day on Mon, NE`rly winds should gradually ease from west to east down to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts as low pressure pulls away from the region. This should allow the SCA`s across our inland sounds and rivers to end Mon afternoon into Mon evening. NE`rly winds will continue to ease Mon night with gusts falling below 25 kts across all waters by Tue morning. However, 4-6 ft seas across our coastal waters will persist a little longer going into Tue evening before seas fall to 3-5 ft allowing the last of the SCA`s to end across our coastal waters. Afterwards, NE`rly winds ease to 5-10 kt by Wed morning with seas falling to 2-4 ft as high pressure ridging controls the ambient weather. Winds continue to remain light but gradually veer on Thurs and into the end of the week to a SE to S and then SW`rly direction as a cold front approaches from the west. Seas generally remain at 2-4 ft from Wed onwards as well. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ196-199-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ131-137-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154-156-158. && $$ |
| #1243413 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:36 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 221 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Continued dry and very pleasant conditions are expected with below average temperatures today into mid week. A cold front approaches late week with slightly warmer temperatures and a chance for showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 220 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Remaining dry today, becoming breezy along the coast of SE VA and NE NC. Remaining dry with below normal temperatures once again today, though with sfc high pressure slowly building E-SE from the Great Lakes, and a developing sfc trough off the Carolina coast, NE winds increase across SE VA and NE NC, especially near the coast, with gusts in the 20-25 mph range by late morning into the afternoon. The upper trough approaches from the NW with a low amplitude short wave moving through the base of the larger trough, resulting in more clouds by afternoon/evening. High temperatures look to be primarily in the mid to upper 70s with dew points from the upper 40s/lower 50s NW to the upper 50s in the SE. Clouds thin out overnight with temps in the low 50s W and NW to the low/mid 60s SE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 AM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - Streak of abnormally cool and dry August weather continues Monday and Tuesday. Basically a persistence forecast Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 70s to low 80s and dew points in the 50s. Remaining breezy near the coast Monday as coastal low pressure deepens offshore. Think the low remains far enough offshore to keep rain chances out of the area but there could be a stray shower or two near the northern OBX Monday afternoon. Mostly sunny for most of the area with more clouds expected SE/closer to the coastal trough/low. Temperatures will be similar on Tuesday with some afternoon cumulus clouds. Cool and dry again Tuesday night with lows back into the 50s and low 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 220 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Continued dry on Wednesday with slightly higher temps and humidity. - Chance for showers and maybe a few storms returns Thursday into Friday as a front approaches the region from the west and potentially interacts with a weak coastal low. High pressure over the region moves offshore on Wednesday, allowing winds to swing around to the SE and S. Temperatures increase into the low 80s for much of the area with dew points increasing into the mid and upper 50s to low 60s. Latest guidance keeps the area dry overnight with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Clouds increase on Thursday with a slight chance for showers across most of the area, slightly higher in the Piedmont and along the SE coastal counties as the surface cold front and another coastal trough interact. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s with a modest increase in humidity as dew points creep back into the low and mid 60s. Chance for showers continues into Thursday night and Friday, especially across the northern half of the area. 00z guidance begins to diverge thereafter with the GFS keeping unsettled conditions into the upcoming weekend while the ECMWF is dry and comfortable. Will stick close to the blended guidance, keeping temps in the upper 70s to low 80s Friday and Saturday with overnight lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 125 AM EDT Sunday... VFR conditions prevail through the 06z/31 TAF period. Mostly clear skies noted on satellite and surface observations with some clouds across the far west and into NE NC. Winds are generally light inland and NE 5-10 kt at ORF and ECG. NE winds 5-10 kt resume by late morning at RIC, SBY, and PHF. ORF and ECG generally 10-15 kt with gusts ~20 kt. Passing short wave aloft will allow for SCT/BKN cirrus today. Some scattered CU is also possible late morning into the afternoon hours. Outlook: VFR conditions persist, with dry weather through midweek. Remaining breezy at the coast Monday. && .MARINE... As of 220 AM EDT Sunday... - A prolonged period of elevated onshore flow is expected beginning this afternoon and continuing through Monday. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for a portion of the coastal waters and lower Chesapeake Bay this afternoon into Monday night. Early this morning, high pressure is centered north of the area (over the Great Lakes). Meanwhile, ~1012 mb low pressure is located just off the far northern FL/southern GA coast. Winds range from E to NE over the waters, with wind speed ~5 knots north to 10 to 15 knots south. Seas are running around 2 to 3 feet, and waves in the Chesapeake Bay 1 to 2 feet. High pressure will remain in place (slightly north of the area) into early this week. The area of low pressure that is currently located off the FL/GA coast will start to move further to the NE and develop off the Carolina Coast over the next day or so. The gradient between the high to our north and low to our south will tighten, leading to increased onshore flow, especially across our southern waters, starting this later this morning and continuing through at least Monday. Wind speeds will average 10 to 20 knots during this time (highest S), but a period of 15 to 20 knot (locally 20-25 knot) winds is likely this afternoon into Monday, mainly on the coastal waters S of Parramore Island. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for coastal waters S of Parramore Island, the Currituck Sound, and the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. These this afternoon in the southern coastal waters, sound, and bay and tonight in the northern waters. Have also raised Small Craft Advisories for the lower Chesapeake Bay (south of New Point Comfort) and the far northern coastal waters, starting late this afternoon in the bay and tonight for the far northern coastal waters. These higher winds will also increase the seas to 4-6 ft, potentially a ft or so higher S of the NC/VA border. SCAs may also be needed for the remainder of the Chesapeake Bay around sunrise Monday AM, but will let the next shift reevaluate. Winds will relax a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday with mainly sub- SCA winds in the forecast late next week. Seas will remain at 2-3 ft in the Ocean and 1-2 ft in the Bay this morning ahead of the wind surge. The persistent onshore flow will result in building seas later today into Monday, with 4 to 6 feet seas forecast by tonight and Monday (and continuing through Tuesday before slowly subsiding). Rip Currents: The rip current risk will remain moderate across the southern beaches tomorrow, with a low risk across the northern beaches. As winds increase and become more onshore, the moderate risk will expand to the northern beaches on Monday and Tuesday. A high risk is now expected at the southern beaches Monday and Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... August 2025 will make the top 10 list for the coolest Augusts on record at Richmond, Salisbury, and Elizabeth City. Based on the forecast for the 31st (Sunday`s) temperatures, the best estimation is: - RIC: 7th or 8th coolest on record, coolest August since 1992. - SBY: 3rd or 4th coolest on record, coolest August since 2008. - ECG: 3rd or 4th coolest on record, coolest August since 1996. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ632. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ634-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ652-654. && $$ |
| #1243412 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:12 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 103 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 100 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 -Heat continues to be a concern especially through Monday with a Moderate (level 2 out of 4) to Major (level 3 out of 4) Heat Risk. -Rain chances increase for Monday and Tuesday. -The Weather Prediction Center continues to highlight northern portions of Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, and Kenedy counties in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall on Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Heat continues to be the main focus for the start of the forecast period. Mid-level ridging and moisture advection with south- southeasterly winds will continue to bring hot temperatures rising into the upper 90s to 100s and heat indices between 105 to 110 degrees across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. This will maintain a Moderate (level 2 out of 4) to Major (level 3 out of 4) Heat risk for the region through Monday. While heat indices will remain below Heat Advisory criteria, Special Weather Statements will be needed. Tuesday temperatures cool slightly, but will remain near to just above seasonal norms for the remainder of forecast period. As we head into Monday a cold front begins to push southward, stalling just north of the CWA. This will bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms on Monday (40-60%) and Tuesday (50-70%). WPC has a small portion of the Northern Ranchlands in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) on Monday. There is some uncertainty in the rainfall forecast, especially across the northern Ranchlands. If the front stalls farther north, rain chances will decrease. With that said, latest forecast guidance has increased rain chances across Deep South Texas slightly on Monday and more noticeably on Tuesday. Rain chances taper off Tuesday night and will generally remain around 15% or less for Wednesday and Thursday. There will be a slight uptick in precip chances headed into next weekend as we look at the potential of another approaching and passing cold front at the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. Light to moderate southeasterly winds are expected to continue through the day with mostly clear skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Generally favorable conditions with mostly light to moderate southerly to southeasterly winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft. A frontal boundary will stall north of the CWA increasing rain and thunderstorms chances Monday and Tuesday (50-70%) before pushing through late tuesday. This activity could lead to locally elevated winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 96 79 95 79 / 10 10 40 40 HARLINGEN 98 75 97 75 / 10 0 50 50 MCALLEN 102 79 101 79 / 0 10 40 50 RIO GRANDE CITY 103 77 101 77 / 0 0 30 60 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 90 82 89 80 / 0 10 30 50 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 94 78 93 77 / 0 10 30 50 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243411 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:12 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 103 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 100 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 -Heat continues to be a concern especially through Monday with a Moderate (level 2 out of 4) to Major (level 3 out of 4) Heat Risk. -Rain chances increase for Monday and Tuesday. -The Weather Prediction Center continues to highlight northern portions of Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, and Kenedy counties in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall on Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Heat continues to be the main focus for the start of the forecast period. Mid-level ridging and moisture advection with south- southeasterly winds will continue to bring hot temperatures rising into the upper 90s to 100s and heat indices between 105 to 110 degrees across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. This will maintain a Moderate (level 2 out of 4) to Major (level 3 out of 4) Heat risk for the region through Monday. While heat indices will remain below Heat Advisory criteria, Special Weather Statements will be needed. Tuesday temperatures cool slightly, but will remain near to just above seasonal norms for the remainder of forecast period. As we head into Monday a cold front begins to push southward, stalling just north of the CWA. This will bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms on Monday (40-60%) and Tuesday (50-70%). WPC has a small portion of the Northern Ranchlands in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) on Monday. There is some uncertainty in the rainfall forecast, especially across the northern Ranchlands. If the front stalls farther north, rain chances will decrease. With that said, latest forecast guidance has increased rain chances across Deep South Texas slightly on Monday and more noticeably on Tuesday. Rain chances taper off Tuesday night and will generally remain around 15% or less for Wednesday and Thursday. There will be a slight uptick in precip chances headed into next weekend as we look at the potential of another approaching and passing cold front at the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. Light to moderate southeasterly winds are expected to continue through the day with mostly clear skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Generally favorable conditions with mostly light to moderate southerly to southeasterly winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft. A frontal boundary will stall north of the CWA increasing rain and thunderstorms chances Monday and Tuesday (50-70%) before pushing through late tuesday. This activity could lead to locally elevated winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 96 79 95 79 / 10 10 40 40 HARLINGEN 98 75 97 75 / 10 0 50 50 MCALLEN 102 79 101 79 / 0 10 40 50 RIO GRANDE CITY 103 77 101 77 / 0 0 30 60 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 90 82 89 80 / 0 10 30 50 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 94 78 93 77 / 0 10 30 50 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243410 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:09 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 104 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Drier conditions will persist through the remainder of the forecast as upper troughing continues to trend stronger across the eastern US. With a large upper cutoff low over the Great Lakes and high pressure over the western US, dry northwesterly flow aloft will persist Sunday through most of the week. At the surface, a subtle boundary will continue to loiter just offshore in the northern Gulf allowing for the better Gulf moisture to remain where it belongs, over the Gulf and not us. As a result, the forecast for the next 5 to 7 days looks dry and coolish for early September. The best chance for rain will likely come towards the middle of the week as a few shortwave troughs progress through the northwesterly flow brining the chance of some showers and storms across the interior portions of our area Wednesday. Other than that, expect dry conditions with highs in the upper 80s to potentially cracking 90 degrees by midweek. Dewpoints will be noticably lower which should keep the muggyness down and make it rather comfortable (or at least as comfortable the weather can be for early September). BB-8 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 104 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A light to moderate northeasterly flow is expected through Sunday. A moderate to occasionally strong northeasterly flow develops by Monday morning then becomes a light to moderate easterly flow for Monday afternoon through Tuesday. A northerly to westerly flow develops by Thursday. Small craft will need to exercise caution on Sunday night into Monday morning. BB-8 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 87 69 88 67 87 67 89 69 / 10 0 10 10 20 10 20 10 Pensacola 86 72 88 70 87 70 88 71 / 10 10 20 10 20 10 20 10 Destin 87 73 88 71 87 73 87 73 / 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 10 Evergreen 89 66 89 61 89 63 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 10 Waynesboro 88 66 88 63 88 64 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 20 10 Camden 88 66 87 63 88 64 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 10 Crestview 86 66 87 63 88 65 89 67 / 10 0 10 0 10 10 20 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243409 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 155 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 130 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 VFR expected remainder of tonight before morning showers develop over the coastal waters and begin to push onshore, with VCSH across terminals mid to late morning then VCTS mention around noon. TEMPO sub-VFR conditions with convection most likely early through mid afternoon for northern (TPA/PIE/LAL/SRQ) terminals and mid to late afternoon for southern (PGD/FMY/RSW) terminals. Convection likely to linger into the evening with continued VCSH mention then gradually tapering off through around midnight. Onshore/westerly flow for majority of the period, however with a boundary perhaps sagging further south into the central peninsula could see winds shift to E/NE to its north across northern terminals late evening, with southern terminals remaining variable. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 89 77 89 75 / 70 40 60 30 FMY 89 75 91 75 / 70 50 70 40 GIF 90 74 89 74 / 70 40 60 10 SRQ 89 74 89 74 / 60 40 60 40 BKV 87 71 88 70 / 70 30 60 20 SPG 86 76 88 75 / 70 40 60 40 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 8 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1243408 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 141 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Stationary boundary is draped from north central Florida westward through our Gulf waters. Surface high pressure located in the northeast US with ridging riding down the Appalachians will induce northeast surface winds across the Tri-State region. This will usher in drier air through the northern half of our CWA, hold the front at bay from moving much at all, and pin the seabreeze this afternoon closer to the coast. With higher PWATs located south of I10 and the seabreeze pinned, have better rain chances (30-50%) relegated in coastal sections, southeast Big Bend and extreme southern Georgia if convection moves that far northward. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies are on tap, northeast winds of 10-15 mph and highs in the mid to upper 80s. Tonight, lows will fall into the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A broad upper level trough will prevail over the eastern half of the country through much of the upcoming week. At the surface, an axis of surface high pressure will extend down the eastern portion of the Appalachians through much of the upcoming week and give much of the forecast area broad northeasterly flow. Light south and southwesterly flow develops late in the week and temperatures will warm. The upcoming week will generally be dry given the lack of appreciable moisture for shower/storm development. The broad frontal system that lingered over the forecast area through the weekend will continue to slowly push south on Labor Day as the axis of the surface high noses south into the forecast area. Any rain showers will likely be confined well to our south with only portions of the southeast Big Bend possibly seeing rain on Monday as these locations reside closer to the old frontal boundary. Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to see northeasterly flow across the region but as the next shortwave in the broad upper level trough approaches, we will begin to see light southerly return flow ahead of another cold front. This will begin to increase rain chances across the area on Wednesday, but given the lack of any appreciable low-level moisture rain chances are likely to remain quite low. For Thursday and into the upcoming weekend, the cold front will likely begin to stall but dry mid-level air in the upper level trough should supress much of the shower and storm potential and help temperatures warm back up into the low 90s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Beginning to get patchy MVFR cigs reported in southern Georgia and along the Florida coast. A moist northeasterly flow will aid in stratus development through the rest of the overnight into Sunday morning. There is some disagreement in near term guidance WRT coverage of stratus and leaned with the NBM guidance which is a little more pessimistic compared to LAMP/CONShort. Overall, not much change from the previous set of TAFs. IFR/MVFR cigs are expected to continue developing and affect the TAFs through around 14-16Z Sunday morning. Afterwards, a return to VFR or a mix of MVFR and VFR through 18Z then VFR in the afternoon hours. Seabreeze is expected to be located closer to the coast with rain decent rain chances south of I10 but confidence is not high enough to mention at TLH. && .MARINE... Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A frontal boundary over the nearshore waters will continue to settle further south into the Gulf into Tuesday. Northeasterly winds will be light through today but will likely increase Sunday night into Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens. This could lead to periods of cautionary or near-advisory conditions, especially in waters west of Apalachicola. The frontal boundary moves east Wednesday with winds decreasing and becoming generally westerly later in the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A drying trend takes hold over the next few days with afternoon and evening showers and thunder storms confined to the I-75 corridor of FL and the FL Big Bend. Moderate East-Northeast transport winds will be in place thru Tuesday with mixing heights away from the coast topping out around 5,000 feet. This promotes pockets of high afternoon dispersion across inland regions today and Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 As the frontal system slides south the higher rainfall totals will move south with it. Some rain is possible across the southeast Big Bend this afternoon but rainfall totals will be light and no hydrological concerns are anticipated. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 86 69 85 66 / 20 0 10 0 Panama City 88 71 89 69 / 20 10 20 10 Dothan 85 66 85 62 / 10 0 0 0 Albany 86 66 85 62 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 86 67 85 64 / 30 10 10 0 Cross City 88 71 88 68 / 60 20 30 10 Apalachicola 85 73 86 72 / 50 20 30 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243407 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 152 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 149 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A prolonged period of unsettled weather will continue across South Florida as deep upper-level troughing remains established over the Eastern Seaboard. Satellite imagery early this morning shows the trough axis has ejected over the western Atlantic, while a corresponding surface boundary gradually drifts southward along the Florida peninsula. This should help enhance moisture advection along the column today. With this improved moisture profile and westerly flow in place, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible this afternoon, with activity starting to develop inland in the early afternoon hours, then progressing east towards the East Coast metro. Guidance suggests generally up to 1 inch across much of South Florida could be possible, with pockets of 1-2 inches along the East Coast metro, and up to 3 inches in isolated spots. One potential limiting factor to keep in mind will be the potential that the prevailing westerly flow could preclude the development of the Atlantic sea breeze this afternoon, which would reduce the possibility for convection to become pinned over the metro areas for prolonged periods, and thus limit the potential for higher rainfall accumulations. That being said, high-res models have shown spotty run-to-run consistency over the past several days, so confidence regarding the finer-scale details of this solution remains low. Nevertheless, given this discussion, and recent rainfall over the last few days, localized flooding concerns cannot be ruled out, and WPC is keeping much of South Florida under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall today, but widespread impacts appear unlikely at this time. On Monday, chances for widespread rainfall have trended downward, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms still forecast to develop, but concerns over flash flooding somewhat diminished. Highs this weekend will remain in the low-mid 90s, while lows could dip to the low-mid 70s overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 149 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 The period of unsettled weather looks to persist through much of the upcoming week as the upper-level trough lingers over the Eastern Seaboard, with several shortwave impulses moving through the flow. Repeated rounds of rainfall through mid-week will keep at least a marginal risk for localized flooding, especially along the East Coast metro where westerly flow will continue to focus activity. A weak surface low may develop and move across South FL on Tuesday, which could bring a temporary uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage. By late week, the upper trough is expected to gradually lift northward, which should begin to shift the pattern into next weekend. High temperatures through the extended period will generally range from the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the low-mid 70s across the interior and up to the upper 70s along the coasts. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 149 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Light and variable winds prevail early this morning, with mostly VFR conditions expected. Winds will become more westerly this afternoon, and periods of sub-VFR conditions could be possible as scattered showers and storms are forecast to move across the East Coast metro. Conditions will improve overnight, when winds will become light and variable once again. && .MARINE... Issued at 149 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Light westerly to southwesterly winds develop today across all local waters. Seas are expected at 2 feet or less across all local waters. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain possible each day, which may cause periods of locally gusty winds and rough seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 92 76 91 77 / 70 50 80 60 West Kendall 91 75 90 76 / 70 50 80 50 Opa-Locka 93 76 92 77 / 70 50 70 60 Homestead 91 75 90 76 / 70 50 70 60 Fort Lauderdale 93 76 90 77 / 70 50 70 60 N Ft Lauderdale 93 77 91 77 / 70 50 70 50 Pembroke Pines 94 76 93 77 / 70 50 70 50 West Palm Beach 92 75 90 77 / 70 50 70 50 Boca Raton 94 76 92 76 / 70 50 70 50 Naples 91 77 90 77 / 70 50 60 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243406 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1247 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1223 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 - Moderate to major risk of heat related impacts today. - Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning today and continuing into Tuesday. Greatest chances for rain are Monday into early Tuesday. - WPC has a Marginal to Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall across South TX through tonight. A Marginal Risk continues through Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Hot conditions continue across South Texas today. Highs will reach the upper 90s in the Coastal Bend to the low 100s across the Coastal Plains and westward. Heat indices will climb into the 105-112 degF range. The most significant impacts are once again expected across the Brush Country, where a Moderate to Major (level 2-3 of 4) heat risk is forecast, and an isolated Extreme (level 4 of 4) risk cannot be ruled out in parts of La Salle and McMullen counties. Elsewhere a Minor to Moderate (level 1-2 of 4) will extend into the Coastal Plains, Coastal Bend, and the Crossroads. With many of you likely spending time outdoors this Labor Day weekend, practicing heat safety will be critical. Please remember to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks, and avoid prolonged direct sun exposure. Additional safety tips are available at weather.gov/heat . Later today, we`ll begin to see a shift to a bit more of an active pattern. The ridge axis we have been watching the last several days is expected to shift westward, allowing weak shortwave disturbances to ride down its eastern periphery. Along with the pooling of moisture (PWATs greater than 2 inches) ahead of a stationary boundary currently to our north, this setup will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms in the coming days. Chances for measurable rain (20-50%) begin today across the Victoria Crossroads and northern Coastal Plains. CAMs are split regarding the evolution of rainfall over portions of the northern Brush Country late tonight as they are hung up on the advancement of available moisture this far south and west. I increased NBM PoPs over this area to account for at least a low chance (20-30%). The day-shift can edit as necessary once the most recent model data comes in closer to time and confidence increases in the progression of precipitation. Broader low to moderately high probabilities (30-70%) will expand region-wide Monday into Tuesday when the atmospheric set-up looks to be the best. Given the amount of moisture we have in place, some storms may be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. WPC continues to highlight northern portions of the CWA in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall from 12Z today through 12Z Monday, with an isolated Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for the Victoria Crossroads. They continue to also paint most of South Texas in a Marginal Risk from 12Z Monday until 12Z Tuesday. Rain chances begin to taper off by late Tuesday/Tuesday night as the aforementioned boundary gradually pushes through, with drier conditions expected mid-to-late week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 VFR conditions expected through much of the night with a period of MVFR CIGS possible at ALI/VCT toward morning. Will see an increase in moisture as a front approaches from the north and expect to see isolated to scattered showers and storms around VCT in the afternoon. By evening could see a complex of storms approaching the COT area. Confidence on when and where convection occurs isn`t especially high, but current forecast indicates most likely scenario at this time. Rain chances will increase further on Monday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore flow with occasionally fresh (BF 5) breezes along the southern bays and nearshore waters will continue through most of the upcoming week. Rain chances will become low to medium (20-70%) late today through early Tuesday afternoon before diminishing as a boundary moves south through the waters. The boundary passage will shift winds to the north and bring in drier air. Onshore flow will return by Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 95 77 91 75 / 10 30 70 50 Victoria 95 74 90 72 / 60 50 80 30 Laredo 104 78 98 75 / 0 20 60 60 Alice 99 75 93 74 / 10 20 80 50 Rockport 93 77 90 77 / 30 40 70 50 Cotulla 101 77 93 75 / 10 30 80 40 Kingsville 97 76 93 74 / 10 20 70 50 Navy Corpus 91 81 89 80 / 10 40 70 60 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243405 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1243 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 - An environment supportive of localized heavy rain continues through the weekend. A slight risk of excessive rain (threat level 2 of 4) is in place Sunday, with most of the area seeing a marginal risk for excessive rain (threat level 1 of 4) on Labor Day. - After the holiday, expect rain chances to decrease as drier air filters into the region. Potential for showers and storms may start to work back in late in the week. - High temperatures should remain relatively near seasonal averages; a bit cooler where it rains, a bit warmer where it does not. At night, lows should gradually slide through the 70s towards the upper 60s inland as the drier air filters in. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 If you were a fan of Saturday`s weather around the area, I got some real good news for you about the rest of the holiday weekend, because it`s going to largely be a lot more of the same for the next couple of days. And it`s certainly got its perks, as some folks up around the Pineywoods and east of the Houston metro had temperatures stay in the lower half of the 80s. Of course, the price of that was plenty of showers and storms, which isn`t necessarily ideal for a holiday weekend. Given our, uh...reputation...with holidays though, getting away with a single flood advisory for some heavy street ponding for some inside the Beltway isn`t that bad. Sunday...looks like more of the same. We will continue to have some of the ingredients for heavy rain - a stalled boundary with precipitable water around the 90th percentile, and an upper ridge that has retreated enough that multiple shortwave troughs will be making their way through the pattern in the northwest flow overhead. Soundings indicate a skinny CAPE profile, with sufficient instability for stronger storms in a moisture-laden atmosphere. But...not all of the holes in the swiss cheese model of disasters appear to be lining up, which should mitigate a more widespread heavy rain threat, and keep concerns limited to where/if locally heavy rain falls over a vulnerable spot (low- lying, poor drainage, etc). For instance, Corfidi vectors aren`t terribly alarming - they aren`t really favorably large, but also aren`t indicative of very slow movement and/or backbuilding. We`d instead need other mesoscale features to keep storms from moving, similar to what we saw over the Houston core earlier in the day. Additionally, the low-level moisture transport is somewhat shallow. 925 mb moisture transport vectors are pretty solidly onshore and working at pumping moisture into Southeast Texas, but there`s virtually no moisture transport at 850 mb, instead looking more steady state. Ultimately, there`s certainly some concern for localized flooding issues emerging, and there is a slight risk for excessive rain (threat level 2 of 4) across the area tomorrow as we have a second day with scattered to numerous storms expected to pop up across the area. HREF probabilities for 1 inch per hour rain rates do appear as a speckling of low signal across the area, but perhaps more west of the Brazos and right on the coast than other places. Again, an indication that there`s some support for big rainers there, but no strong signal for any given spot. There was some consideration given to issuing a flood watch, but without the confidence for impacts to a specific area, we`re opting to hold off...for now. Should a better alignment of concerning factors begin to emerge, we could always opt to issue one on a shorter fuse. Monday...more or less run it back. The stalled front does look like it should drift a little farther south, and that will shift low level flow more northeasterly, at least farther inland. This will start to filter in some drier air, but we should still be in a fairly moist environment with continued vort maxes traversing the northwest flow aloft. With a bit of the edge taken off, WPC stepped things back to a marginal risk for excessive rain (threat level 1 of 4) for all but our northernmost reaches, which will be most likely to see the tap turn off as moisture levels start to back down. The rest of the week...doesn`t seem to have quite as much to say about it. Rain potential will back down into the middle of the week, with the initial front pushing off into the Gulf, and a reinforcing front solidly establishing the lack of rain potential arriving late on Tuesday (or early Wednesday?). I don`t think Tuesday is entirely dry, and perhaps not even following days, but whatever rain there is should be pretty scarce. Of course, we can also anticipate daytime temperatures to go up with that as well. While cloudy, stormy Sunday/Monday see highs mostly in the 80s or around 90 at most, we`ll see highs drift back up into the 90s for once the drier air moves in. BUT! the drier air will help the humidity situation be less oppressive, and allow for a bit more cooling at night thanks to the lower temperature floor the decreased dewpoints set! By Wednesday night, I`m forecasting lows in the 60s for all but those right on the Gulf or in the Houston urban heat island. This likely does not mean cool nights for me, but I`m happy for y`all that get them. Now, for the last few nights, you`ve caught me on here trying to be cautiously optimistic about a late week front. And...honestly...a lot of the things that I`ve been pinning my hope on are still there. Anomalously high U winds at 500 mb with anomalously low V winds, 850 temps at or below the 10th percentile pushing as deep as the Red River Valley and parts of North Texas late in the week... I`m not asking for much here, just some days with highs closer to 80 than 90! And yet...the NBM remains stubbornly warm into the weekend, with widespread highs around 90. Even worse, cooler Euro Ensemble 850 temps have pulled back farther north, closer to what NAEFS has been showing. It`s got a forecaster wondering if he`s been wishcasting. And...maybe I am. I do note that LREF`s primary cluster does show a stronger upper trough than the grand mean, and even though it doesn`t appear to have noticeably cooler surface temps anymore, I`d rather a stronger upper trough supporting an incoming front than a weaker one (please do not look at any of the other clusters, which are at best slower and at worst stronger than the grand ensemble mean). So, after all that, I continue to stick near the deterministic NBM numbers, with a slight hedge to the cooler side. I continue to think that the error of the NBM`s forecast will continue to be towards the side of lower temps, but there is not yet enough evidence out there to push me to decisively push the forecast that way, and that error ultimately may not be very large, even if it occurs. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 631 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 SHRA/TSRA activity is expected to diminish this evening, with areas of MVFR and potentially IFR developing overnight. SHRA may develop again late tonight (after 09Z), mostly in our southern and coastal zones. By mid morning Sunday, the chance of shra/tsra increases from north to south. For now, chance of seeing at least rain is high enough to warrant VCSH mention in most of the TAFs, while TSRA is limited to a PROB30. That being said, we may have to upgrade the TSRAs to TEMPO groups when confidence increases regarding TSRA coverage and timing. Winds will generally be light and variable. But higher winds are likely in the vicinity of TSRA. && .MARINE... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A stalled frontal boundary will continue to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region through the holiday weekend. Some of the stronger storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. Winds outside of storms will generally be light and variable. However, locally stronger winds in the vicinity of thunderstorms should be expected. Additionally, the environment will continue to be supportive of isolated waterspouts, and we may see more on top of those observed during the day on Saturday. While rain chances should dwindle inland, daily isolated to scattered showers and storms may persist over the Gulf. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 75 83 72 87 / 40 80 40 50 Houston (IAH) 77 85 75 89 / 30 60 30 50 Galveston (GLS) 80 87 79 87 / 30 50 50 70 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243404 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 143 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 143 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Light showers developing along the Atlantic coast will increase in coverage as activity shifts southward across the CRG and SGJ terminals after 08Z. TEMPO groups for IFR conditions during heavier downpours were used during the predawn and early morning hours at CRG and SGJ, while confidence was only high enough for a PROB30 group overnight at SSI. Low MVFR ceilings at JAX and CRG will expand to the VQQ, GNV, and SGJ terminals after 08Z. Ceilings at SSI will likely lower to IFR towards 08Z, with these IFR ceilings overspreading the Duval County terminals before 12Z. Showers streaming over the CRG and SGJ terminals on Sunday morning may expand westward to JAX before noon a and then to VQQ by the mid to late afternoon hours, where PROB30 groups were used. Isolated thunderstorms may impact the northeast FL terminals on Sunday, but confidence in timing and coverage was too low to include a mention at this time. Ceilings will likely lift to low MVFR at the inland terminals by 15Z and the coastal terminals by 17Z. VFR conditions are expected to prevail at GNV towards 18Z. A northeasterly wind surge will arrive at SSI during the predawn and early morning hours, with sustained surface speeds increasing to around 15 knots and gusty after 13Z, with these gusty onshore winds then overspreading the Duval County terminals and SGJ after 15Z. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 1145 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Stalled frontal boundary across NE FL, generally positioned along the I-10 corridor will not shift much through tonight and the deep moisture in place along with enough diurnal heating today will help to develop numerous to widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall, with the best chances along the frontal boundary across NE FL and in the convergent low level NE flow along the coastal SE GA counties. Details on the heavy rainfall threat is in the Hydrology section below. Otherwise this convection will peak during the late afternoon and evening hours over inland areas, then linger through the overnight hours over the Atlantic Coastal Waters and along the I-95 corridor, with the best chances through the overnight hours in the Brunswick metro area, where the low level NE convergence is greatest and will be monitored for potential Flood Watch in the next forecast package. Max temps will top out in the upper 70s/near 80F across SE GA and into the lower/middle 80s across NE FL this afternoon where more sunny breaks have occurred. Low temps tonight should still be able to fall into the upper 60s across inland SE GA, lower 70s for inland NE FL and middle 70s along the Atlantic Coastal areas. Some patchy fog possible over inland areas, but overall abundant cloud cover and continued low level N to NE winds around 5 mph or so, will lead to more of a lower stratus deck towards morning with widespread ceilings below 1000 ft over inland areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 1145 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025 High pressure will ridge down the east coast, as a frontal zone remains nearly stationary over central FL. The high will push the front a little further south Sunday night through Monday night. Drier air will advect south into SE GA, with the building ridge. As a result there will be a significant precipitation gradient from northwest to southeast across the area, with location of frontal boundary keeping chances pretty high across north central FL. The increasing pressure gradient, will result in a a surge of winds along the coast. The gustier winds will be most noticeable over SE GA coast Sunday, then all along the coast Monday. Temperatures will trend below normal this period. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 1145 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025 The high pressure ridge will become centered more toward the northeast through Wednesday, allowing the frontal zone to lift back north across local area. As a result of frontal convergence, and greater moisture, daily precipitation chances will increase from south to north Tuesday into Wednesday. Frontal troughing will then extend across the area later in the week. Drier air will advect into the western counties on the northwest side of the front. Temperatures will slowly moderate this period, reaching near normal levels by the end of this period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1145 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025 A stationary front will linger across the northeast Florida waters this weekend as strong high pressure over the Great Lakes begins to wedge down the southeastern seaboard, sending a surge of northeasterly winds and building seas across our local waters from north to south on Sunday and Small Craft Advisory headlines will be posted with the upcoming forecast package. Waves of showers and embedded thunderstorms will impact our local waters this weekend, with stronger storms capable of producing excessive lightning, strong winds, and waterspouts. Northeasterly winds will likely peak at Small Craft Advisory levels on Monday and will then gradually weaken by late Tuesday and Wednesday. Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue through midweek, with less coverage expected ahead of an approaching cold front later in the week. Prevailing winds will shift to offshore ahead of this approaching cold front, allowing seas to gradually subside. Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents still on track to develop on Sunday as the Northeast surge of winds pushes down the Atlantic beachfront locations with surf/breakers into the 2-4 ft range, with High risk continuing on Labor Day with surf/breakers of 3-5 ft. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1145 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Will continue to monitor heavy rainfall potential along the I-95 corridor and Atlantic Coastal Counties through the entire Labor Day weekend and the possibility of Flood Watch issuance as still expecting 2-4 inch rainfall totals over the next 3 days in this corridor with locally higher amounts up to 6 inches possible. Lesser total rainfall amounts expected over inland areas, but with daytime heating, any of the isolated thunderstorm activity will still have heavy rainfall potential in localized convection, but the main threat will still be along the Atlantic Coastal areas where narrow convergent rain bands set up in the Northeast flow pattern that is upcoming with slow or little movement in some of these bands. This is similar to a situation which set up during September of last year (2024) which brought heavy downpours and localized flooding to the JAX metro area, but this weather pattern is not expected to last as long as it did last year, but will continue to monitor for potential Flood Watch. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 85 65 84 63 / 30 0 10 0 SSI 83 73 83 73 / 60 40 40 20 JAX 85 72 84 71 / 60 30 60 20 SGJ 86 74 85 74 / 60 50 70 30 GNV 88 70 86 69 / 60 10 50 10 OCF 87 72 86 72 / 70 10 60 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT Monday for AMZ450-470. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT Monday for AMZ452-472. && $$ |
| #1243403 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:39 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 127 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Continued dry and very pleasant conditions are expected with below average temperatures through the Labor Day Weekend and into the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 830 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Cool and dry overnight. - Remaining dry Sunday, becoming breezy along the coast of SE VA and NE NC. High pressure is centered over the Great LAkes this evening, and slowly building to the E-SE, with low pressure off the coast of GA. A NW flow aloft prevails, with the FA located around the base of an upper low centered across Quebec and northern New England. The sky is mainly clear and temperatures have dropped off into the 60s across most of the region, with a few upper 50s over interior portions of the MD eastern shore and the VA piedmont. Will continue the dayshift`s trend at favoring the cooler side of guidance, with a lot of NBM 10th percentile blended in across interior areas given the drier air and decent radiational cooling conditions for temps tonight: lows ranging from ~50F across the NW zones and interior MD eastern shore, to the mid-upper 60s at the coast in far SE VA and NE NC where onshore flow ~10 mph will keep readings much warmer. Could definitely see some of the cooler rural locations (especially N) drop to the upper 40s. It remains dry with below normal temperatures once again on Sunday, though with sfc high pressure slowly building E-SE from the Great Lakes, and a developing sfc trough off the Carolina coast, NE winds should increase across SE VA and NE NC, especially near the coast, with gusts in the 20-25 mph range by late morning into the aftn. The upper trough approaches from the NW, and becomes centered over the FA by Sunday evening, resulting in more clouds by aftn/evening, but these should mainly be high clouds. High temperatures look to be primarily in the mid to upper 70s with dew pts from the upper 40s/lower 50s NW to the upper 50s in the SE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 240 PM EDT Saturday... Key Message: - Streak of abnormally nice/cool and dry weather continues Monday and Tuesday. Conditions remain similar Monday with high pressure becoming centered NE of the region, but with the sfc ridge extending SW into the local area. It will tend to be breezy along the coast with a sfc trough in place off the Carolina coast. Highs both Mon and Tue will mostly be in the upper 70s and dew points will stay in the low- mid 50s. Lows both Sun and Mon nights will be in the low- mid 50s inland and in the 60s near the water. Partly to mostly sunny both days and staying dry. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 240 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Comfortable temperatures and humidity levels continue through mid week. - Chance for showers and maybe a few storms returns from Wed night onward as a front approaches the region from the west and potentially interacts with a weak coastal low. The pattern of dry weather and below normal temps continues through first half of next week as high pressure remains in control at the sfc and the UL trough stays more or less in place. Next chance for rain looks like it would be mid to late week as a stronger front approaches the area. Still seeing difference in 12z global models with respect to timing of the front and the development of an area of low pressure the SE coast along the old frontal boundary. Will stick with the blended guidance given the uncertainty, which results in slight chance to chance PoPs for the late week period. Temperatures and dew points increase a few degrees Thursday but still only into the low 80s with dew points rebounding into the 60s. Dry and comfortable weather returns behind the front late in the period. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 125 AM EDT Sunday... VFR conditions prevail through the 06z/31 TAF period. Mostly clear skies noted on satellite and surface observations with some clouds across the far west and into NE NC. Winds are generally light inland and NE 5-10 kt at ORF and ECG. NE winds 5-10 kt resume by late morning at RIC, SBY, and PHF. ORF and ECG generally 10-15 kt with gusts ~20 kt. Passing short wave aloft will allow for SCT/BKN cirrus today. Some scattered CU is also possible late morning into the afternoon hours. Outlook: VFR conditions persist, with dry weather through midweek. Remaining breezy at the coast Monday. && .MARINE... As of 910 PM EDT Saturday... - A prolonged period of elevated onshore flow is expected beginning late this weekend and continuing into early next week. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for a portion of the coastal waters Sunday into Monday. A cold front moved across the coastal waters earlier today, but winds have calmed down significantly this evening. Winds are generally out of the NE at 5-10 kt. Seas are 2-3 ft in the ocean, with waves of 1-2 ft being measured across the bay. High pressure will remain in place (slightly north of the area) through early next week. An area of low pressure will start to develop off the Carolina Coast over the next day or so and slowly lift northeastwards. The gradient between the high to our north and low to our south will tighten, leading to increased onshore flow, especially across our southern waters, starting Sunday and continuing through early next week. Wind speeds will average 10 to 20 knots during this time (highest S), but a period of 15 to 20 knot (locally 20-25 knot) winds is likely Sunday afternoon into Monday, mainly on the coastal waters S of Parramore Island. Based on guidance trending noticeably higher with the winds from Sunday afternoon through Monday, have raised Small Craft Advisories for the coastal waters S of Parramore Island, the Currituck Sound, and the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. These start tomorrow afternoon in the southern coastal waters, sound, and bay and tomorrow night in the northern waters. These higher winds will also increase the seas to 4-6 ft, potentially a ft or so higher S of the NC/VA border. Winds will relax a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday with mainly sub- SCA winds in the forecast late next week. Seas will remain at 2-3 ft in the Ocean and 1-2 ft in the Bay through Sunday morning ahead of the wind surge. The persistent onshore flow will result in building seas next week, with 4 to 6 feet seas forecast by later Sunday and Monday (and continuing through Tuesday before slowly subsiding). Rip Currents: The rip current risk will remain moderate across the southern beaches tomorrow, with a low risk across the northern beaches. As winds increase and become more onshore, the moderate risk will expand to the northern beaches on Monday and Tuesday. A high risk is now expected at the southern beaches Monday and Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... August 2025 will make the top 10 list for the coolest Augusts on record at Richmond, Salisbury, and Elizabeth City. Based on the forecast for the 31st (Sunday`s) temperatures, the best estimation is: - RIC: 7th or 8th coolest on record, coolest August since 1992. - SBY: 3rd or 4th coolest on record, coolest August since 2008. - ECG: 3rd or 4th coolest on record, coolest August since 1996. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT Monday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EDT Monday for ANZ652- 654. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ656-658. && $$ |
| #1243402 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:27 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 120 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025 - Persistent troughing over the eastern U.S. will enhance coverage of afternoon and evening showers and lightning storms through at least early next week - A low risk of excessive rainfall exists each day through at least mid week, particularly in areas that see several rounds of heavy rain in storms - A moderate rip current risk continues at local beaches; beachgoers should be aware of offshore moving storms this afternoon and evening && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Today-Tonight... Upper level trough centered across the eastern US, and extending over the Florida peninsula, remains in place. At the surface a stationary front sits just to our north, with deep moisture pooling near the boundary across the ECFL (PW values around 1.8-2.0"). Locally, the pressure gradient will remain relatively weak, with westerly flow dominating throughout the entire atmospheric column. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form this afternoon and remain pinned along the coast. Higher than normal rain chances are once again forecast this afternoon and evening as deep moisture and westerly flow enhance the summertime convective pattern. Model guidance is in good agreement that the highest coverage for storms today will be across east FL due to that dominate westerly wind. However, due to high clouds streaming overhead, which could disrupt daytime heating, some uncertainty in the evolution of convection remains. Have maintained 50-70 percent PoPs today, with the highest coverage occurring along and to the east of the St. Johns River as well as across the Treasure Coast, where boundary interactions along the sea breeze will likely take place. Main storm hazards will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds or 40-50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches. There is a low risk for excessive rainfall today, particularly in areas that see repeated rounds of storms. A secondary storm hazard will be the potential for a brief weak rotation and or funnel clouds where stronger boundary collisions occur. Any lingering activity will diminish or push offshore by midnight, with mostly dry conditions forecast overnight. Seasonably warm today due to the high clouds and higher rain chances. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat indices of 98-103 degrees. Beachgoers should keep an eye on the western sky this afternoon as storms are forecast to push into the Atlantic this afternoon and evening. Muggy conditions overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Sunday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Broad troughing remains in place over the eastern U.S., albeit slightly weaker as the primary upper low shifts into the Canadian Maritimes. Guidance indicates the front will nudge a little closer to the area as both deterministic and ensemble members suggest a broad, weak low developing over the Atlantic. Deep moisture pooling along and to the south of this feature, combined with continued westerly flow aloft, support above normal precipitation chances. Maintained a high chance (70-80%) for rain and lightning storms for now, though future iterations of the forecast may be able to introduce a north-to-south gradient depending on where the front settles. There is a low excessive rainfall threat, particularly in areas that see repeated rounds of storms. These higher than normal rain chances will help to keep temperatures seasonably warm, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Muggy conditions persist overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Monday-Friday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement through the end of next week, with an unusually strong signal for continued troughing over the eastern half of the United States. The "big picture" suggests a continuation of higher-than-usual rain chances through at least the middle of the week. The placement of the surface boundary and its attendant moisture pool, along with several shortwaves rounding the base of the trough, will dictate which areas see the greatest chances for storms through at least Wednesday. Have maintained a broad 60-70% PoPs focused on the afternoon and evening for now through Wednesday. A low excessive rainfall threat continues each day through at least Wednesday, particularly in areas that see repeated rounds of storms. Toward the end of the forecast period, guidance indicates a sharp polar trough emanating from Canada may provide enough forcing to shift the local surface boundary southward. At the very least, this would lead to a sharp north-to-south gradient of precipitation chances, which the NBM is beginning to show in the extended. For now, have maintained 50-60% PoPs focused in the afternoon and evening late week into early weekend. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Today... (Modified Previous Discussion) Westerly flow at or below 10 knots today will turn onshore this afternoon behind the Atlantic sea breeze. Afternoon storms are expected to develop over the mainland and push back toward the coast. Seas 1 - 3 feet. Sunday-Thursday...(Modified Previous Discussion) A surface boundary is forecast to meander over the local waters early next week, resulting in a slight surge of north to northeast winds (up to 15 knots). Seas will gradually deteriorate into Labor Day, increasing up to 3 to 6 feet offshore (highest north). Higher coverage of storms is forecast during the evening and early overnight hours as inland storms push offshore. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 120 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Weak frontal boundary across the area continues to pull deep moisture into central FL. Continued mainly dry overnight, but will watch for some morning showers across the I-4 corridor pushing in from the west. For this potential, continue to carry VCSH at LEE/MCO/ISM around 14Z. With predominant WRLY flow expect additional activity across WCFL to spread eastward Sun aftn, with VCTS prevailing by around 17-18Z. With increasing confidence for above normal PoPs, TEMPOs included at most sites. An overall unsettled weather pattern may keep SHRA/TSRA into the evening hours and additional TEMPOs may be necessary. Continued mainly VFR, with tempo MVFR CIGs/VSBYs invof convection. Light winds will become NWRLY Sun morning as trough slides southward. Winds continue to veer N/NE (aftn-early eve) from near KMLB-KISM northward. Will need to monitor for "low-topped" showery precip along the coast Sun evening (perhaps overnight). && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 86 75 85 75 / 60 50 70 50 MCO 90 75 87 74 / 60 40 60 20 MLB 89 75 87 76 / 60 50 70 40 VRB 90 72 88 75 / 70 60 70 40 LEE 86 74 87 73 / 60 30 60 20 SFB 88 74 87 74 / 60 40 70 30 ORL 89 74 87 75 / 60 40 60 20 FPR 91 71 88 73 / 70 60 70 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1243400 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 AM 31.Aug.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1208 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Primary axis of upper trough extended from Maine to Georgia during the evening hours with shortwaves over Oklahoma and South Dakota headed toward the base of the trough. Ridging was noted from Arizona to Idaho. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the western Great Lakes with frontal boundaries near the Louisiana coast in the vicinity of Houma and to the north along Interstate 40. South of the Louisiana boundary, precipitable water values were in excess of 2.1 inches, as noted in the LCH sounding. North of the boundary, drier air was in place as noted by the 1.85 inches here at the office, and even drier on the JAN sounding at 1.45 inches. Most precipitation across the area had dissipated by 8 PM CDT. Most evening temperatures ranged from the mid 70s to lower 80s with dew points in the lower and middle 70s. With the Oklahoma shortwave weakening and the surface boundary forecast to drift offshore over the next 24 hours, areal coverage of convection during the next two days is expected to be considerably less than recent days. Any convection that does develop over the next two days is likely to be isolated and limited to areas south of Interstate 10. It is entirely possible that only the extreme lower portions of the Louisiana coastal parishes to the south of a Houma to Port Sulphur line experience any storms. By this time tomorrow night, precipitable water values are expected to be near 1.5 inches or lower across essentially the entire CWA. That is around the 25th percentile climatologically. The NBM PoPs look to be a bit on the high side, especially on Labor Day, but were at least supported somewhat by the 12z ECMWF solution. The drier airmass should support warmer high temperatures as compared to Saturday, with high temperatures around 90 for much of the area. What will be just about as noticeable is lower dew points and relative humidities, especially for Labor Day north of Interstate 10, where dew points could be in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Troughing is expected to continue across the eastern half of the country over the next week as ridging near Bermuda is blocking it from going much of anywhere. The forecast issue locally is with the timing of shortwaves moving into the base of the trough. Forecast soundings from the GFS would indicate that moisture levels should be well below the 50th percentile climatologically for much of the week, if not all week. There may be enough forcing with shortwaves Tuesday or Wednesday to produce at least isolated precipitation, which was supported by at least some of the ECMWF ensemble members, and the operational GFS from Saturday`s 12z runs, as well as the recently received NAM for the 00z Sunday run. A significant departure (more than 10-15 percent) from the NBM PoPs doesn`t appear justified for Tuesday and Wednesday at this time, and will leave current numbers in place this run. Beyond Wednesday, little or no precipitation is expected through the end of the forecast period. NBM temperatures more closely resemble the operational GFS solution for most of the week, and would note that the ECMWF operational numbers from the 12z Saturday run were on the cooler side of their ensemble range. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Terminals were VFR at forecast issuance. May be a few MVFR ceilings at southern terminals briefly overnight, and perhaps some MVFR visibilities briefly at KMCB around sunrise, but most should remain VFR. A frontal boundary was near KHUM, so if there`s a threat of precipitation during the overnight hours, that is the one most likely to be impacted. As cumulus field develops at mid-morning, won`t rule out brief MVFR ceilings, but cloud bases should lift above FL030 before 18z. The main question during the day will be the location of the frontal boundary. Current thinking is that it should drift a little further southward. Will only carry a mention, PROB30, at KHUM during the afternoon hours. The threat at the New Orleans terminals, KNEW and KMSY, is non-zero, but not high enough to justify a mention in the forecast. Beyond 00z Monday, all terminals should be VFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 The main concern will be daily thunderstorm activity across the marine areas today and early in the week, as a stalled front hangs around the coastal waters. Locally higher winds and waves will be expected near any thunderstorm. The frontal boundary will continue to nudge a bit further offshore today. The question is whether it makes it far enough offshore today for winds over the eastern open waters and Breton and Chandeleur Sounds to justify Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines. At present, we`re carrying 10 to 15 knots, but if winds become a little stronger than expected, we`ll need to add headlines. Winds are expected to be offshore for a couple days, then easterly at midweek. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 88 68 88 67 / 10 10 10 10 BTR 90 71 90 70 / 20 10 20 10 ASD 89 69 88 68 / 20 10 30 10 MSY 91 77 90 76 / 20 10 40 20 GPT 89 71 88 70 / 20 10 30 10 PQL 88 69 89 68 / 20 10 20 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
