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| #1213321 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1041 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Coastal troughing will shift inland through tonight. A cold front will approach from the west Saturday, crossing the area later Sunday into Monday morning. Another cold front could impact the area Tuesday, followed by high pressure dominating mid-to-late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: Aloft, a ridge with an axis extending north along the Southeast Coast will be slow to nudge offshore while low pressure advances across the Ohio River Valley and toward the Great Lakes. At the sfc, a well established wedge of high pressure will hold across inland areas for much of the day while a rather sharp coastal trough is placed just offshore (as seen on vis sat imagery). Ample moisture and isentropic lift continues to produce light rain and/or drizzle, mainly for areas along and east of the I-95 for the next few hours. However, the coastal trough is expected to shift onshore late day, decreasing the chances of precip heading into early evening hours, but resulting in more mild temps as a warm front shifts onshore by nightfall. High temps will remain somewhat tricky and tied to the coastal trough arrival late day, but should favor temps reaching the low-mid 60s near coastal areas and low-mid 50s across inland areas. Tonight: The trough should completely clear the forecast area by the late evening and early morning hours, with southeast flow spreading in. A much milder night is on tap as temperatures hold steady or even rise in many areas. The forecast advertises low to mid 50s inland and upper 50s along the coast. With the passage of the trough, the area will be largely devoid of any forcing and focusing mechanism for showers overnight. However, there could still be isolated showers within the onshore flow so we do carry a 20 percent chance of showers late. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... H5 heights begin to gradually fall Saturday as upper troughing digs toward the eastern US. At the surface, weak troughing over the area will dissipate within the broader pre-frontal flow on Saturday morning, with diminishing rainfall changes after sunrise. Onshore flow/WAA prevails through the rest of the day, with temps reaching into the 70s for most despite mostly cloudy skies. The afternoon precip forecast remains somewhat uncertain, as ample moisture exists in the lower to mid levels with SBCAPE values potentially approaching 300 J/kg, but persistent subsidence aloft and lack of any significant lift look to win out with very limited coverage of showers through the afternoon. Deeper moisture arrives Saturday night with POPs beginning to trend greater accordingly. The primary band of prefrontal moisture arrives during the day Sunday, coincident with the strongest QG forcing from DPVA and height falls aloft. Expect showers across the area Sunday, with greatest coverage in the afternoon. Additionally, some stronger convective elements could develop midday into the afternoon as CAPE surges to around 1000+ J/kg, and 0-6km shear reaches around 35-40 kt. The conditional threat for organized convection, potentially in the form of a QLCS or hybrid supercell/multicell structure, requires continued monitoring, with elements like AM cloud/precip coverage factoring into the eventual character of the severe weather threat. The front will push offshore Sunday night into Monday morning, with drier, weak high pressure building in briefly from the west. Limited post-frontal CAA and increasing sunshine will keep temps above normal on Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Primary potentially-impactful feature of note in the long term is a cold front that will likely cross the area Tuesday. While modest WWA ahead of the cold front will bring increasingly warm and humid conditions, upper forcing is very limited, and overall precip is expected to be very limited ahead of the front Tuesday. Behind the cold front, drier high pressure builds in from the west, with lack of particularly strong CAA resulting in only a gradual cooling trend mid to late week. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... KCHS/KJZI: The 12z TAF period begins with persistent light rain and IFR conditions. Light rain should continue through about midday, then taper off to just isolated showers early in the afternoon. IFR ceilings are expected to stick around into the early afternoon as well before lifting to MVFR. A surface trough will shift inland late this afternoon and into the evening, which will allow for VFR conditions to return and winds will turn to become southeasterly for the overnight. KSAV: IFR conditions are in place to begin the 12z TAF period and the terminal is just barely to the west of ongoing light rain and drizzle. It is possible that drizzle could impact the terminal for a few hours this morning, but it will be a close call. IFR conditions are expected to linger into early afternoon. MVFR ceilings could then stick around through the late evening hours before VFR conditions and southeasterly winds arrive behind a passing surface trough. Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions in low clouds and showers are possible at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals Saturday afternoon and night, then become more likely with the arrival of showers and/or thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday night as a cold front passes through the region. Prevailing VFR conditions are then expected early next week. && .MARINE... Today through Tonight: High pressure will hold inland while a sharp coastal trough is positioned offshore, favoring a pressure gradient supportive of Small Craft Advisories across all waters (except the Charleston Harbor) through morning hours. The coastal trough is anticipated to shift onshore this afternoon, weakening the pressure gradient and turning northeast winds 15-20 kt with occasional gusts to 25 kt more east and topping out near 15-20 kt for the rest of the day. Seas will be slow to subside throughout the day and night, but marine conditions should fall below Small Craft Advisory levels across nearshore waters by around noon today, while 6 ft seas linger across outer Georgia waters through much of the night. Breezy S winds develop later Saturday into Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds could reach near SCA strength, but some uncertainty remains with regard to how well the warm airmass will mix across the shelf/nearshore waters. Current probabilities for wind gusts to 25 kt across the nearshore waters Sunday is around 20-30%, and closer to 60-70% over the Gulf Stream. Accordingly, seas increase to 4-7 ft during the strongest winds Sunday. Winds diminish Monday, before becoming moderate to breezy ahead of another cold front Tuesday. The sea fog threat also requires monitoring over the weekend and into early next week. While dew points will surge well into the 60s Saturday/Sunday and again Tuesday, wind direction/speed does not currently look particularly favorable for the BL flow to have the residence time over the cooler shelf waters (lower to mid 50s SST) necessary to develop a significant sea fog threat. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ350-352-354. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1213320 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1026 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 430 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 - Warm with a few showers through Saturday. The highest chance (30-40%) for rain is along the coast. - Poor to hazardous beach and boating conditions will exist today. - Our next cold front arrives Sunday night with a 40 to 50% chance of showers and a few lightning storms. - The forecast is dry and pleasant for New Year`s Eve plans, but the risk for cold weather impacts increases in early January. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1025 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Dense fog has dissipated across Brevard County, though some patchy fog remains possible at the immediate Volusia and Brevard coast through the remainder of the morning. Showers continue to brush the coast, moving from south to north, as a weak surface low/coastal trough near Daytona Beach lifts northward. Temperatures are still in the mid 60s to low 70s with a fair amount of cloud cover over east central Florida. Hi-res guidance has come down a degree or three in spots due to the lingering clouds, so highs were nudged down slightly across the area. Expect the coolest spots to be along the Volusia and north Brevard coast (low 70s) with highs reaching the upper 70s across the interior. Remember, a high risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at area beaches. Entering the water is strongly discouraged! && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Current...Isolated to scattered showers continue to develop across the local Atlantic waters this morning. Some showers have been able to move onshore, though they have remained rather light thus far. In addition to the showers, cloud coverage remains high this morning across east central Florida thanks to a stratus deck that has set up across the area. In some spots, the stratus has sunk closer to the ground, resulting in fog and visibility reductions down to a mile or less. If you`re out driving this morning and encounter these lower visibilities, be sure to slow down, use only low beam headlights, and leave plenty of following distance between vehicles. The stratus should lift through the morning, with visibilities improving across east central Florida near to shortly after sunrise. Today-Tonight...Mid-level ridging is forecast to slide slightly eastward across the Florida peninsula today, with the associated surface high over the northeastern U.S. responding by slowly shifting eastward out over the Atlantic. Locally, winds becoming more onshore today as the high moves eastward, helping to advect moisture towards the peninsula. As a result, isolated to scattered showers are forecast to continue across the local Atlantic waters, with the easterly flow helping some activity move onshore. The highest chances across east central Florida are confined primarily along the immediate coast (30-40%), though there is a 20-30% chance of showers making it as far inland as the Orlando metro. Overall, the environment looks unfavorable for any storm development, but did decide to keep at least a 10% chance of thunder in association with any activity for today. Activity is forecast to gradually diminish into the overnight hours across the peninsula, though shower development across the local Atlantic waters is still expected. There is a low chance for activity to continue across the Treasure Coast overnight. Despite the higher cloud coverage, temperatures are still forecast to warm into the mid 70s to low 80s across east central Florida, which is approximately 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Lows will also remain approximately 10 degrees above normal, with temperatures remaining in the 60s. Saturday-Sunday...The mid-level ridge will continue to slide eastward across the Atlantic on Saturday, with a trough digging southward over the central U.S. The trough is then forecast to swing northeastward towards the Mid Atlantic on Sunday. At the surface, this will translate to the surface high shifting farther eastward as a surface low develops across the Ark-La-Tex region on Saturday. The low then lifts northward towards the Ohio Valley on Sunday, dragging its weakening attendant cold front along with it. Locally, the weakening cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the Florida peninsula Sunday into Sunday night. Rain chances across the Florida peninsula on Saturday remain around 20-30% thanks to the elevated moisture, with the best chances concentrated primarily across the Treasure Coast. Winds are forecast to veer southeastward as the surface high shifts farther east across the western Atlantic. By Sunday, rain and storm chances are forecast to increase across east central Florida out ahead of the weakening cold front. Rain chances remain around 40-50% across the area, with a 20% chance of lightning storms in association with the activity. The risk for strong storms continues to look low at this time. Activity will slowly diminish into Sunday night as the front continues southeastward, with slightly drier air helping to clear out clouds. Temperatures are forecast to remain above normal across east central Florida over the weekend, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows remaining in the 60s. Monday-Thursday...Behind the front, zonal flow aloft is forecast to set up, keeping conditions relatively mild locally. Rain chances are forecast to remain below 20 percent across the peninsula from early next week into the middle of next week, with isolated shower development across the local Atlantic waters possible. Another front may move towards the peninsula around New Years` Day, though current guidance is hinting that it will pass with very little fanfare as a result of limited moisture availability. The frontal passage on Sunday will do little to help with temperatures, with highs remaining in the 70s Monday and in the upper 70s to low 80s on Tuesday. Lows generally in the mid 50s to low 60s. The second frontal passage, however, looks as though it could cool east central Florida off slightly, with highs on Wednesday in the 70s and falling into the mid 60s to low 70s on Thursday. Lows are forecast to fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s Wednesday night, with the coolest night during the forecast period on Thursday, with lows in the 40s across all of east central Florida. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Poor to hazardous boating conditions have developed across the local Atlantic waters as a result of increasing onshore flow, with seas building up to at least 8 feet across the offshore waters. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the offshore Volusia and Brevard waters. Small craft are encouraged to exercise caution across the nearshore Volusia and Brevard waters and offshore Treasure Coast waters due to seas up to 6 feet and east-southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Poor boating conditions are forecast to continue across the Gulf Stream waters into the weekend as a result of south-southeast flow keeping seas up to at least 6 feet. Conditions are forecast to improve after a front moves across the local waters Sunday night, with winds Monday becoming light and variable around 5 to 10 knots. Seas fall to 2 to 4 feet on Monday, with boating conditions remaining generally good into the middle of next week. Isolated to scattered showers are forecast to continue across the local Atlantic waters today into Saturday, with the best rain chances forecast on Sunday out ahead of a cold front. Isolated storms cannot be ruled out on Sunday. Behind the cold front, shower chances are forecast to diminish, though isolated shower activity cannot be fully ruled out across the offshore waters. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 652 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 IFR/LIFR conditions present at nearly all terminals this morning, as a low stratus deck has spread across the area, dropping ceilings to less than 500 ft, with patchy fog producing visibility as low as 1/2 mile at a few terminals. At the same time, isolated to scattered marine showers have brushed coastal sites, with most impacts occurring at DAB presently. While fog and lower stratus will erode by 14Z, it will remain overcast most of the day. Calm to variable winds this morning become northeast, veering southeasterly around 10 knots this afternoon. Lower cig potential again later tonight after 06Z along with patchy fog. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 63 77 64 / 30 20 20 30 MCO 78 64 79 65 / 30 20 20 30 MLB 76 65 77 66 / 30 20 20 30 VRB 78 66 79 67 / 30 20 30 30 LEE 77 63 79 64 / 30 20 20 30 SFB 77 63 79 64 / 30 20 20 30 ORL 78 64 80 65 / 30 20 20 30 FPR 77 66 79 66 / 30 30 30 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ550-552. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ570-572. && $$ |
| #1213319 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:27 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1012 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1010 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Messy weather pattern across the Florida Keys this morning. The KBYX radar detected a swath of showers across the Straits of Florida this morning, capped near 15000 feet as of 0930 AM. The 12Z KKEY radiosonde sampled a daily record breaking PWAT value of 1.89 inches. Satellite observations and the sounding indicate the right entrance region of the subtropical jet remains across southern Florida. Additionally, GOES observations depict a shortwave trough located just east of the Yucatan Peninsula that is gradually tracking towards the Keys. The atmosphere is primed for showers and thunderstorms to pop off over the Straits. Why, then, is convection so sparse? The core issue is a lack of surface to low level wind convergence across the Florida Keys. While jet dynamics and mid level shortwaves support convection, if the atmosphere is decoupled then rainfall will be difficult to maintain. Sustained cloud cover will also prevent more atmospheric destabilization, limiting shower coverage. Where and when showers will form depends on how much low level winds are able to converge, if the convergence boundary lifts north, and how the shortwave will interact with the subtropical jet. Put simply, it`s messy and aside from stating showers will be in the vicinity, the short term forecast remains extremely uncertain. && .MARINE... Issued at 1010 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Small Craft should exercise caution in the Straits of Florida and for increasing winds for the Hawk Channel and deep Gulf waters. From synopsis, a surge of moisture will bring unsettled weather with the greatest likelihood of rain and thunderstorms this afternoon through Saturday. Hazards to mariners may include, but are not limited to, occasional lightning strikes, gusty and erratic winds, and reduced visibility from heavy downpours. While these hazards will be possible anywhere across the Keys waters, the highest likelihood is across portions of the Straits of Florida. Conditions are expected to begin to improve Sunday. With high pressure over the western North Atlantic ridging across the Florida Peninsula early next week, east to southeast winds are expected to decrease, becoming light to gentle by Monday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1010 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through 12z Saturday morning. With that said, scattered showers south of the Island Chain will likely remain close enough to the terminals to warrant an extended period of VCSH. There remains relatively low confidence that these showers will progress northward and directly over the terminals, especially at MTH. We will closely monitor radar trends and add/modify TEMPOs as needed. Outside of any activity, near-surface winds will remain generally out of the east at 7 to 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1983, the daily record low temperature of 40 F was recorded in Marathon. Marathon temperature records date back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 78 72 79 71 / 60 40 40 40 Marathon 78 72 79 72 / 60 40 40 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1213318 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:51 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 945 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 935 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 It`s a gloomy start to the day as satellite imagery shows ample cloud coverage near 11,000 feet across much of South Florida. Satellite also depicts an impressive blanket of dense fog extending across much of north/central Florida; fortunately, breezy winds and very thin, stratiform rain over the southern part of the peninsula have kept fog away. With fairly persistent cloud cover and intermittent light rain expected throughout the day, high temperatures will struggle to peak past 80 degrees today. Did not make any substantial changes to the forecast at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 111 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Today, the sub-tropical jet is expected to dip southwards over the region coupled with a weak shortwave that will zip across South Florida. At the same time, a diffuse surface boundary across the Florida Straits will gradually begin to retrograde. With the arrival of a deeper plume of moisture (1.5-1.7 inches precipitable water values) and a little bit of more moisture in the mid-levels, there is the potential for higher rain chances (30-40%) across northeastern portions of the region. While forecasted rain totals (QPF) currently suggest rainfall totals today less than an inch, HREF`s LPMM indicates the potential of heavier thunderstorm activity just offshore with the potential of 2-3 inches of total rainfall. While this remains the most probable scenario of how things play out (any thunderstorms remaining offshore over the best instability over the Gulfstream), if a thunderstorm was able to brush or move over land, some higher rainfall totals (2-3 inches) could be realized. On Saturday, the higher PWAT airmass is expected to linger which could continue the increased (30-40%) chance for showers through the first half of the weekend especially over far southern portions of the Florida peninsula and local waters. Expect maybe a couple rounds of rainfall on and off throughout Saturday with potential to continue into the evening hours. High temperatures are expected to reach the upper 70s to low 80s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 111 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 PWATs will remain elevated (1.5-1.7 inches) through Sunday which will likely lead to yet another day of periodic on and off rainfall, although chances will remain on the lower end overall (20-30%). A robust mid-latitude short-wave trough will traverse the mid-Atlantic and eastern US early next week, allowing drier air to work its way across South Florida, which will reduce rain chances and cloud coverage. A stray shower could still be possible during this time period mainly across eastern portions of the area, though dry conditions will prevail. A strong cold front may develop by the late week period next week and traverse the southeastern United States. With that being said, a notable disparity exists amongst long- range model guidance in regards to timing and strength of post-frontal cold-air advection, given that this event is about a week from occurring. Nonetheless, late next week seems to be our next shot at a cooler airmass. Temperatures remain seasonable through the long term period, with maximum temperatures generally reaching the upper 70s/lower 80s each afternoon. Overnight, expect low temperatures in the 60s/70s along the interior/east coast respectively. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Gentle, breezy easterly winds may become gusty and more southeasterly mid- morning, with gusts up to 20 kts forecast. A few stray light showers could move across each terminal but no impacts or restrictions are anticipated. && .MARINE... Issued at 111 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Gentle to moderate easterly breeze expected today over most area waters with a fresh breeze developing over the Atlantic waters beginning this afternoon. Seas 2-3 ft in the Atlantic waters building to 3-5 ft through the day. Seas in the Gulf generally 2 ft or less. && .BEACHES... Issued at 111 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 There is a high risk of rip currents across all East Coast beaches due to increased easterly flow through at least Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 71 79 71 / 20 20 20 20 West Kendall 80 68 80 69 / 30 20 20 20 Opa-Locka 81 70 80 70 / 20 20 30 20 Homestead 79 71 80 70 / 30 20 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 78 71 77 71 / 20 30 30 20 N Ft Lauderdale 78 71 78 71 / 20 30 30 20 Pembroke Pines 82 71 82 71 / 20 20 30 20 West Palm Beach 79 70 78 70 / 30 30 30 20 Boca Raton 81 70 79 71 / 30 30 30 20 Naples 81 66 80 66 / 20 20 20 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1213317 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:51 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 949 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain dry weather through Friday. Light icing and hazardous travel is possible early Saturday ahead of a warm front, that will bring rain and milder air into the region over the weekend and into early next week. Another low pressure system may bring rain around New Years Day, then colder air should follow for the first few days of 2025. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/... 10 AM Update: 1030+ mb high over the Northeast and New England this morning, providing very tranquil conditions for late December. Forecast highs of 35-40 appear on track and should feel even milder given abundant sunshine and light winds (NW this morning, then SW this afternoon). Not much else to say, other than enjoy! && .SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 345 AM Update: Key Messages: * A light glaze of ice from freezing rain into interior Southern New England mainly during the Saturday morning hours. Icing may linger in lower-elevation interior areas (the CT/Merrimack Valleys) into the early afternoon. Impacts from ice accretion solely limited to travel. Winter Weather Advisories issued. * Light rain across RI and much of eastern/southeast MA. * Rain becomes more intermittent/drizzly late afternoon to Saturday evening. Details... Increasing cloudiness develops tonight in response to a warm front associated with a frontal system now near the mid-MS Valley region. This feature is expected to begin to spread light precipitation by the Saturday pre-dawn hours timeframe in interior western New England, and into early Saturday morning for eastern portions of Southern New England. Before precipitation arrives, we should see some initial period of radiational cooling helping to drive temps into the mid- 20s by early overnight. During the second half of the overnight, increasing cloudiness and very light southerly flow should allow for surface temps to very slowly rise into the upper 20s for most, to around freezing for southeast New England. Precip then begins to break out around 4-6 AM Saturday in western New England, and into 5-8 AM Saturday for central and eastern portions of Southern New England. Temperatures are quite warm aloft with a pronounced warm nose and associated maximum temps in the warm nose around +6C. Precip types will be one of either rain or freezing rain, surface-temperature dependent, with no in-between. Greatest risk for light ice accretions is in interior Southern New England north and west of Interstate 95. Freezing rain should gradually transition over to plain rain from south to north as temperatures slowly warm above freezing. Model forecast soundings in lower elevations in the CT valley and Merrimack Valley show very limited mixing and a slower scour-out of sub-freezing air supporting a somewhat longer duration of FZRA for those areas. In fact, more elevated sites like the Berkshires and hills in northern Worcester County could flip above freezing several hrs before areas along the I-91 corridor would. For RI and the Boston/Providence corridor south and east, there could be some patchy slippery spots at onset as plain rain falls on cold ground given the recent spell of below normal temperatures, but felt the prevalence of freezing rain was unlikely enough to hold off on extending winter weather advisories into these areas for now. It would take an earlier arrival of precip before we would then become more concerned about the potential for light accretions of ice for the locations currently outside of the Advisory area, and that seems to be a less likely outcome given recent trends in the NWP guidance. In terms of QPF, this is a really light event. Only looking at liquid-equivalent amts of a tenth to at worst two tenths of an inch, and a fraction of that would be ice where freezing rain is expected. Following recent science behind the Freezing Rain Accumulation Methodology, very light winds and light precipitation rates with this event are both meteorological factors which should allow ice to accrete efficiently on surfaces where temps are cold enough for freezing rain. But...it`s just not a lot. A few hundredths of icing is forecast in the Advisory areas, with totals no greater than a tenth of an inch, and those higher totals more likely to be observed in the CT Valley given the longer duration and expected longer residence time of subfreezing air. Given the expected increased traffic volume coming out of the recent holidays, and that light freezing rain events often cause greater travel impacts, coordination with neighboring offices prompted issuance of Winter Weather Advisories which run from 4 AM til 1 PM Saturday. Precipitation then starts to shift offshore by late in the day into Saturday evening, as a dryslot moves in aloft. There is an abundance of trapped low level moisture underneath the dryslot, which is a classic pattern for drizzle and fog for Saturday night/overnight as the warm front more or less either stalls or washes out ahead of the next warm frontal surge slated for Sunday. Lows should reach into the mid 30s to near 40. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Messages * Mild/unsettled weather expected between Sunday and the middle of next week * Two substantial precipitation events expected Sunday night/Monday and Wednesday * Trending colder/drier late next week Sunday and Monday Deep south/southwest flow continues to advect mild air into southern New England with 925 hPa temps approaching 10 Celsius on Sunday afternoon. Skies remain cloudy on Sunday, but nonetheless we`re still anticipating well above normal surface temperatures ranging from the low to mid 50sF across the region. Continue to expect some hit or miss warm advection driven showers early Sunday, but precipitation coverage should become more steady as a frontal wave approaches southern New England from the west Sunday afternoon. This system will support wet/rainy conditions through Monday morning and perhaps into early Monday afternoon. Not expecting any frozen precipitation given the mild air mass that will be in place. Tuesday through Thursday A mid-level ridge and associated surface high pressure move over southern New England on Tuesday supporting a lull in the wet/unsettled pattern and another mild day with temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s. This lull will be short-lived as another low- pressure system brings substantial precipitation to southern New England on Wednesday. Ensemble probabilities for greater than 0.5 inches of liquid precipitation are currently hovering in the 50 to 60 percent range across the region. No signals for any snow or frozen precipitation at this time, but there could be a risk for some freezing rain across the interior Wednesday morning. We`ll have a better idea as the event draws nearer. Cool/dry conditions settle in on Thursday as the cold front associated with the aforementioned area of low-pressure moves through the region. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 15Z TAF Update: previous TAFs remain on track - VFR with light NW winds this morning, becoming SW around midday. Earlier discussion below. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Tonight and Saturday: Moderate confidence. VFR for most airports through at least 06z, then we start to see SCT-BKN MVFR stratus develop near the southern airports which gradually expands north. Precipitation starts to break out 08-10z Sat for western New England TAFs, and around 10-13z Sat in central and eastern TAFs, with ceilings going to MVFR/IFR levels. Precip types will be either FZRA or RA, depending on temperature and how quickly temps recover. Best chance icy runways is at BDL, ORH and BED, though is possible at BOS if precip arrives sooner. Most areas will have trended toward rain by 16z. Rainy conditions then become more intermittent/drizzly into by early Sat evening, with IFR/LIFR conditions. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR through at least 10z Sat. Possible MVFR stratus could intrude in by 10z Sat, with steady light precip breaking out after 12z Sat. Should be in the form of rain, but could fall as -FZRA if precip comes in earlier. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Potential for light icing from -FZRA (less than 0.10") early Sat. Outlook /Sunday through Tuesday/... Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. RA likely. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. RA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. RA. Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA. Tuesday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence for next several days. High pressure over New England maintains light winds and light seas into Sat night; winds shift SW today and continue into Sat. A frontal system moves in on Saturday, however mainly light rain is expected, which could be interspersed with fog as we move into the Saturday afternoon/evening period. Increasing S/SE winds later Sun into Mon should bring building seas and periods of rain, when SCAs should be needed on most of the waters. Outlook /Sunday through Tuesday/... Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain. Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Rain. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for CTZ002>004. MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for MAZ002>006-008>012-026. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1213316 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:15 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 900 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will ridge across the inland Carolinas from the north, while a weak coastal front develops offshore and moves onshore today and well inland through Saturday. Warming trend after its passage that will continue through the weekend. A cold front will move through the area late Sunday with rain that may be accompanied by isolated thunder. Brief high pressure with continued mild temps will occur Monday into Tuesday that will be followed by another cold frontal passage accompanied by modest rain chances. High pressure and near normal temps will prevail Wednesday into Thursday. && .UPDATE... Light rain due to weak overrunning of a surface wedge continues this morning. Radar has been able to detect the coastal trough, but little westward movement has been observed thus far. As high pressure drifts southward off of the NJ coast this afternoon, NE flow should turn more easterly and temperatures should begin to warm. Changes with the 9 AM update include: extension of the cool temperatures near the coast with lower high temperatures along the coast. Extended PoPs by an hour or two until we finally start to see some movement of the offshore surface trough. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CAD wedge remains in place over the area, though shallower than yesterday. Overrunning due to southerly flow over the wedge continues to produce scattered light showers. Showers will continue through midday before activity shifts inland, with a dry forecast east of I-95 by late afternoon. Due to shallow nature of lift, QPF is minimal with 0.1-0.15" at best across parts of NE SC. Coastal trough currently offshore will attempt to move onshore late this afternoon, leading to a large gradient in high temps today between near 60F close to the coast and mid to upper 40s along and west of I- 95, courtesy of cloudy skies and persistent wedge. If coastal front moves onshore later than expected and low clouds linger across coastal counties, may see high temps cooler than forecasted. Tonight, the front progresses inland, leading to a warming trend overnight with lows of upper 40s/low 50s occurring early in the night. In fact, temps late tonight across most inland areas will be warmer than daytime temps today as the wedge is eroded by the front. Areas of fog are forecasted to develop west of the front tonight, with main focus along and west of I-95. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Sat features a coastal front basically along the I-95 corridor at the start of this period. And should lift further NW during the day Sat. The entire ILM CWA should be within the warm sector by Sat night under SE flow. With moist conditions, sfc-7H could see periodic showers with POPs limited in the low chance category, with some of this activity coming in off the Atl waters, as well as embedded mid-level s/w trofs. As sfc dewpoints increase to 60 and above late Sat thru Sun, sea fog, possibly dense, may become an issue along the coast. With the upper ridging off the East Coast and the FA becoming more under the influence of the approaching upper trof from the west. The mid-level s/w rotating within this upper trof will lift NE from the lower Mississippi River Valley Sat night to the Great Lakes as a closed Low Sun night. The trof axis extending from this closed low will sweep across the FA midday Sun into Sun evening, negatively tilted as it progresses across the FA. At the sfc, it will lift a warm front across the FA with winds becoming southerly and gusty later Sat night thru Sun. This will also help drive a cfp Sun night. We should see categorical POPs with this event Sun/Sun night, but have included only a slight chance for thunder, especially inland. The stable marine layer will diminish convection chances, especially near the coast however this stable layer will diminish in height the further inland 1 progresses, with thunder likely elevated but having a better chance of occurring. Temps will be warm thru this period, 10 to 15 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Flow aloft flattens out some Mon into Tue with weak sfc high progressing from the Gulf Coast States Mon to offshore from the SE States Tue. Temps Mon thru Tue, will continue nearly 15 degrees above normal. A potent mid-level s/w trof will track from the Rockies Mon to the Eastern Great Lakes by Wed morning. This will drive a somewhat moisture starved cold front, after it crosses the Appalachians, across the FA Tue night and well offshore by Wed daybreak. Have included low rain chances with its passage, with no real tapping of any major moisture sources. Look for actual and decent CAA after this CFP (especially when compared with the previous CFP). Expect dry conditions Wed and Thu with slightly above normal temps Wed and below normal temps Thu with another reinforcing CAA surge as sfc ridging extends from a strong Canadian high dropping down into central U.S. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... IFR-MVFR stratus currently across the area will prevail into this afternoon, before conditions improve at coastal terminals as coastal front begins to move inland. Low stratus will persist inland, particularly along and west of I-95 in northeast SC through tonight and into Saturday. Fog expected tonight at inland terminals, west of the front, with visibilities less than 1 mile possible. Northeast winds today will turn east- southeasterly tonight. Scattered light showers through morning will shift to west of I-95 this afternoon. Extended Outlook...Sub-VFR ceilings may linger through Saturday afternoon inland. Scattered showers possible Saturday and rain likely on Sunday, possibly including isolated thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Coastal trough currently offshore will begin to move inland as a front late this afternoon, making the most progress inland tonight. Northeast winds 15-20 kts this morning will weaken during the day as the trough moves towards the coast, with 10-15 kt onshore southeasterly winds expected by this evening across the coastal waters. Seas 3-5 ft early today will lower to 3-4 ft this afternoon into tonight as the NE wind wave weakens and the SE component slowly builds. A long period 1-2 ft easterly swell is forecasted to enter our waters late tonight. Scattered light showers will linger until midday. Saturday through Tuesday Night...For Sat thru Sat night look for SE 10-15 kt winds becoming S and increasing to 15 to 20 kt and gusty by late Sat night. This in advance of an approaching cold front. Seas 2 to 4 ft Sat to increase to 4 to 6 ft Sat night. Wind driven waves will dominate the 2 periods with an underlying 10+ second period Easterly swell. Sun thru Sun night, winds and seas will peak during this period as a sfc cold front approaches from the mainland Sun then pushes across and offshore Sun night. S winds 15 to 25 kt g30 kt Sun becoming SW same speeds Sun night. Winds 40 kt just off the deck will be prevalent Sun but the stable marine layer, where SSTs in the 50s, should prevent majority of these winds from reaching the cool ocean sfc as gusts. Best chance of 1nm or less vsby from pcpn will occur Sun aftn and evening. Sea fog may also become an issue starting later Sat thru Sat night into Sun as sfc dewpoint sin the low 60s pushes across local SSTs in the 50s. Winds become W to NW Mon with diminishing speed as weak high pressure builds in. Mon night into Tue, winds 10 kt or less with speeds variable in direction. Next cold surge occurs Tue night with SW-W winds increasing 15 to 20 kt as the sfc pg tightens.Seas will initially subside to 1 to 3 ft than build 3 to 5 ft Tue night. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1213315 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:42 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 833 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 820 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Main concern this morning is the interplay of the widespread low stratus and widespread fog, becoming dense in some areas. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for portions of NE FL and SE GA where visibilities initially fell to 1/2 mile or less. Fog will slowly lift between 9 AM and 10 AM. Stable conditions generally persist with an inverted trough sharpened offshore of Flagler county. This feature will pivot and lift northward along the entire through the rest of the day, morphing into a warm front as it does so. Weak isentropic lift along the morphing trough will aid in some showers along the coast. As the trough lifts there will be a noticeable warm up, especially across NE FL, with pushing into the 70s despite the cloudy skies. The warmer and more moist airmass behind the lifting warm front will offer another potential for areas to potentially widespread fog once again tonight, both over land and the nearshore Atlantic waters. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 346 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Overnight surface analysis depicts strong high pressure (1035 millibars) centered over New England, with this feature wedging down the spine of the Appalachians into the southeastern states. Meanwhile, a stubborn coastal trough remains situated over our local near shore Atlantic waters, with this feature generating widely scattered showers, mainly offshore. Otherwise, low pressure (1006 millibars) was organizing over the Ozarks along a frontal boundary that extends southward across the lower Mississippi Valley and coastal Texas. Aloft...ridging was in place along the U.S. eastern seaboard, downstream of a potent shortwave trough that was lifting north-northeastward from the lower Mississippi Valley towards the Tennessee Valley, ahead of a broad longwave trough that was digging from the Rockies through the southern Plains states. Low stratus ceilings were blanketing our entire region due to the surface wedge in place over the southeastern states, with pockets of locally dense fog and drizzle developing across our region as well. Temperatures and dewpoints at 08Z ranged from 45-50 degrees across inland southeast GA to the 50s elsewhere. && .NEAR TERM... (through Tonight) Issued at 346 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 The wedge of high pressure extending from New England into the southeastern states will begin to break down this afternoon as the surface ridge shifts offshore of the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts. This will allow a stubborn coastal trough that has been stuck over our near shore Atlantic waters to morph into a warm front later today, with strengthening isentropic lift / overrunning along this feature developing showers and even some isolated thunderstorms over our local waters early this morning, with this activity likely brushing the northeast FL coast after sunrise and expanding in coverage somewhat towards the I-95 corridor by early afternoon. A few showers could extend as far west as the U.S. Highway 301 corridor in north central and northeast FL through mid-afternoon before activity lifts northward across mainly coastal southeast GA during the late afternoon and early evening hours tonight. Meanwhile, southwesterly flow aloft will advect weak shortwave energy across our area this afternoon as a potent shortwave trough accelerates north-northeastward across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Multi-layered cloudiness will again remain abundant across our area today, with a few breaks in the lower stratus possible this afternoon across north central FL and the Suwannee Valley as warm frontogenesis occurs over this area during the afternoon hours, where highs should climb into the 70s. Model soundings indicate some meager ML CAPE values of around 500 j/kg developing this warm sector this afternoon, so an isolated, low-topped thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for locations along and east of U.S. Highway 301. Thick stratus, with locally dense fog and patches of drizzle, are expected to persist through most of the morning hours, especially at coastal locations and for areas along and north of I-10 into southeast GA, where lower stratus will likely prevail into the afternoon hours, which will keep highs in the low to mid 60s. Onshore winds, showers, and persistent low stratus cloud cover should keep coastal highs in the low to mid 60s, except upper 60s for locations south of St. Augustine this afternoon. An unseasonably warm and humid air mass will then advect into our region in the wake of the lifting warm front overnight, with low stratus ceilings and potentially dense fog redeveloping overnight once shower activity exits coastal southeast GA early in the evening. Temperatures will largely remain steady in the 60-65 degree range overnight at most locations. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 346 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Saturday, a warm front will lift north of area as high pressure shifts away from the Mid Atlantic coast. Southerly flow above the surface will increase moisture levels and support isolated to scattered showers under mostly cloudy skies with light SE winds generally 5-10 mph. Highs will be above normal in the mid 70s for SE GA and the upper 70s over NE FL with cooler highs around 70 at the SE GA coast and low 70s at the NE FL coast in the SE onshore flow. Areas of fog Saturday morning will lift by mid morning. Saturday night, a mid/upper level trough digging into the southern plains will pivot towards the TN valley. This feature will support a surface cold front that will develop and move through the lower MS river valley. Showers will increase in coverage late Saturday night from the west with winds becoming southerly. An isolated thunderstorm is possible west of I-75 and US-441 through sunrise. Sunday, the mid/upper level trough will take on a negative tilt as a short wave moves through the base of the trough from the TN valley into the OH valley in the morning and then the eastern great lakes by the afternoon. This will push the surface cold through the area with SW flow aloft over southerly low level winds creating good surface convergence while diffluent flow in the jet stream level winds help support strong lift over the region. Warm and moist airmass from the Gulf will help support unstable low level airmass (CAPE over 1000 J/kg) with sufficient 0-6km shear 30-40 knots for a marginal threat of isolated severe thunderstorms for wind gusts 40-60 mph. A isolated tornado risk cannot be ruled out due to the strong veering low level winds. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s. Sunday night, showers associated with the cold frontal boundary will move off the coast after midnight with clouds remaining partly cloudy. Decreasing winds will turn westerly towards sunrise. Lows will be in the 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday Night) Issued at 346 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Monday, zonal flow in the mid levels will spread eastward along the Gulf coast as the trough lifts into the NE states. Weak high pressure at the surface will briefly build in over the area with NW winds turning southerly by later in the afternoon as the high quickly shifts off the SE US coast. Highs will be about 5 degrees above normal in the low 70s inland and mid 70s over north central FL with near normal highs along the coast into the upper 60s as a weak seabreeze develops in the afternoon. Lows will be mild in the 50s Tuesday, an upstream shortwave will migrate form the Mid MS valley towards the Mid Atlantic region. A cold front will drag through the deep south with moisture overrunning the drier airmass lingering over the area that will support isolated light showers late in the day. Southwest winds will become elevated 10-15 mph. Highs will again be above normal. Lows Tuesday morning will be 5-10 degrees above normal in the low/mid 50s. Wednesday, the cold front will clear east of the area early in the day and end showers before lunchtime. Skies will become mostly sunny as strong Canadian airmass builds in from the NW. Highs will be near normal in the mid/upper 60s with low 70s over north central FL. Lows Wednesday morning will again be 5-10 degrees above normal in the low/mid 50s. Thursday, the strong high builds southward from the upper plains into the southern plains with light northwest winds and high level clouds as shortwave trough racing from the Mid-South to the Carolina coast reinforces deep troughing over the eastern two thirds of the country. Highs will remain below normal in the upper 50s to low 60s over SE GA and the lower 60s over NE FL. Lows Thursday morning will fall a little below normal in the lower 40s to mid/upper 40s along the coast. By Friday morning, lows will fall to around 10 degrees below normal in the low/mid 30s inland that may support a potential frost with lows moderated a bit at the coast to the upper 30s/low 40s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 551 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 LIFR to VLIFR conditions will prevail through at least 14Z at the regional terminals. Isolated showers have begun moving onshore along coastal northeast FL, with light showers expected at SGJ after 13Z. Confidence was too low to indicate anything other than vicinity shower coverage at the Duval County terminals and GNV today. Shower coverage will then shift northward over coastal southeast GA during the late afternoon and early evening hours, with onset of light rainfall expected after 22Z at SSI. Ceilings and visibilities will slowly improve outside of shower activity during the mid to late afternoon hours today, with a brief period of low MVFR ceilings of 1,000-1,500 feet possible after 20Z at the northeast FL terminals. However, IFR ceilings will likely redevelop at the regional terminals towards 05Z tonight. Northerly surface winds sustained at 10-15 knots early this morning at the SGJ and SSI coastal terminals will shift to northeasterly before noon, with speeds at the inland terminals increasing to around 10 knots by early this afternoon. Surface winds will then gradually veer to easterly towards sunset, with gradually diminishing speeds forecast this evening and overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 346 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Strong high pressure centered over New England will continue to wedge down the southeastern seaboard through tonight, keeping Small Craft Advisory conditions in place through this evening for the offshore waters, where seas of 6-8 feet will prevail today. Small Craft will need to Exercise Caution if venturing into the near shore waters, where seas of 4-6 feet will prevail through tonight. Meanwhile, a stubborn coastal trough situated over our near shore waters will lift northward as a warm front this afternoon and evening. Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will increase in coverage this morning over the northeast Florida waters, with this activity shifting northward over the Georgia waters this afternoon and evening as the warm front lifts northward. Winds and seas will briefly diminish on Saturday, with southeasterly winds then strengthening and shifting to southerly by late Saturday night and Sunday as low pressure develops and intensifies over the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Small Craft Advisory level seas of 5-7 feet may redevelop offshore by late Saturday night or early Sunday. Seas of 3-5 feet are expected throughout the weekend near shore. This storm system will push a cold front eastward across our local waters on Sunday night, with showers and a few thunderstorms expected ahead of this front from Saturday night through Sunday evening. Weak high pressure will then briefly build over our local waters on Monday, with this feature then shifting offshore ahead of the next cold front that is slated to cross our local waters on Tuesday night. Rip Currents: Gusty northerly winds this morning will become onshore this afternoon, with breakers of 4-5 feet at the northeast FL beaches and 3-4 feet at the southeast GA beaches resulting in a high rip current risk at all area beaches today. Breakers will subside slightly on Saturday, with a persistent onshore breeze likely resulting in a higher end moderate rip current risk at area beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 64 60 75 62 / 20 10 30 60 SSI 62 60 70 60 / 50 20 30 50 JAX 69 61 75 62 / 40 10 30 50 SGJ 67 64 74 62 / 50 10 30 40 GNV 74 62 77 62 / 20 10 30 50 OCF 76 63 79 63 / 20 20 20 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ023-024- 030-031-033-120-124-125-132-133-136-137-140-225-232-236-237- 240-322-325-340-422-425-522. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133- 138. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ151-152- 162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166. AM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ470-472- 474. && $$ |
| #1213313 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:15 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 700 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 435 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Showers/thunderstorms have moved well offshore overnight, and with a more stable air mass and lighter winds in place, look for patchy fog to become more widespread through the early morning hours. Some loc- ations could see patchy dense fog at times through sunrise. And then by mid to late morning, visibilities will be much improved over much of the CWA. Clearing skies should help with highs reaching the lower to mid 70s this afternoon. The front responsible for yesterday`s storms should be stalling just off the coast today...but is progged to begin moving back north into SE TX overnight tonight as a warm front. This return of warmer/moist air will be favorable for the return of fog, with dense fog likely a bit more widespread. Isolated streamer showers could develop as well. Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s north...lower and mid 60s along the coast. And so by early tomorrow, with the warm/moist air mass in place over the region (per the return of S/SE winds at the low levels), we will be seeing the next surface low forming around the TX Panhandle. This system is then going to track across the the Southern Plains through the day on Sat. Current hi-res models seem to be focusing the better organized activity across our eastern to northeastern CWA during the afternoon and evening tomorrow. Strengthening deep-layer shear along with increasing instability does seem to indicate that some stronger storm development will be possible should skies clear. So, per SPC`s latest day 2, a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) is now in place for parts of our far E/NE CWA...a Marginal Risk (1/5) for areas east of a Col- lege Station to Sealy to Freeport line. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary severe weather threats, but isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. 41 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 435 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 We should see finally see a reprieve from the active weather, thunderstorm-wise, Sunday and through the week. Things will remain fairly warm Sun through Monday night with lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s. A cold front will be moving into northern parts of the region Tuesday morning and off the coast during the afternoon hours. This front should knock temperatures down to near seasonable norms through the end of the work week with lows in the 30s & 40s and highs in the upper 50s-low 60s. 47 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 554 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 A slightly drier air mass than expected seems to be helping to keep widespread fog development at bay so far this morning. But that be- ing said, dense fog is being reported at some locations. Conditions will be improving by mid to late morning with VFR by this afternoon. Light variable winds (2-6kts) could persist through the day for our northern terminals with light S/SE winds returning at the southern- most sites. Low CIGs (MVFR) and patchy, potentially dense, fog will return tonight into Sat morning. 41 && .MARINE... Issued at 435 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Weak frontal boundary has pushed off the upper Texas coastline, but will be stalling and washing out. Caution flags will be in place til mid morning with some 6ft seas lingering well offshore. A warm front will track back north tonight. Look for areas of fog to develop, some dense, as this occurs. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible, mainly east of Freeport by Saturday morning with the return of Gulf moisture. Patchy sea fog may redevelop for a short time period early Saturday evening before another front pushes off the coast. Onshore flow resumes Monday followed by a stronger front Tuesday afternoon. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 72 57 77 49 / 0 10 30 0 Houston (IAH) 74 62 76 53 / 0 20 40 10 Galveston (GLS) 70 63 72 55 / 0 20 50 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ370-375. && $$ |
| #1213312 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:30 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 715 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 334 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Broad surface ridging is holding across the eastern seaboard today, allowing light east flow to continue and temperatures to warm up into the upper 70s and low 80s. Some patchy fog and low stratus has developed early this morning under light flow, but will lift out by mid morning. This weekend, a trough digging into the southeastern US will develop a cold front that will sweep across the Gulf of Mexico Saturday night and into the Florida Peninsula by late Sunday. This will shunt the surface ridge south on Saturday, turning winds to southeasterly and southerly and allowing atmospheric moisture to increase. As a result, chances of showers will increase late Saturday through Sunday, with a few storms possible ahead of the frontal passage Sunday afternoon. With the trough staying well to the north of Florida, the cold front will lose a lot of its punch before reaching the forecast area, so temperatures are only expected to drop a few degrees Monday and Tuesday and will stay above normal for late December. By Tuesday, another shortwave will swing through the Ohio River Valley, supporting another cold front that will push into the area by Wednesday. While there will likely not be enough moisture ahead of this front to bring much of a chance of rain, modest northwest and north winds behind the front will allow temperatures to drop into the mid 40s to mid 50s Thursday morning, with highs Thursday afternoon topping out in the low 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 713 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 We are seeing IFR and LIFR CIGS this morning across the whole area. This trend will continue through around 15z when CIGS will start to lift. We will have VFR conditions through the daytime hours before another round of low CIGS tomorrow night. Winds will remain light out of the east and southeast. && .MARINE... Issued at 334 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 High pressure will hold north of the waters today and tonight, favoring east winds less than 15 knots. Winds will turn to southeasterly and southerly on Saturday and Saturday night as the ridge shifts south ahead of an approaching cold front, with increased chances of showers and storms Saturday night and Sunday before the front moves through. Winds will briefly turn to northwesterly and northerly behind the front Sunday night, then will revert to southerly by Monday night and Tuesday as high pressure ridges across southern Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 315 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 No fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 81 66 81 66 / 20 20 20 40 FMY 82 66 81 66 / 20 20 30 40 GIF 83 66 82 66 / 30 20 30 30 SRQ 81 65 81 66 / 10 20 20 40 BKV 82 62 82 63 / 20 20 20 40 SPG 78 66 77 66 / 10 20 20 40 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1213311 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:15 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 602 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 553 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 A Special Weather Statement (SPS) has been issued this morning till about 9 AM CST for Cameron (Inland, Coastal, and Island) and Hidalgo Counties due to the development of patchy fog, some of which are locally dense with visibilities of less than 1/4 mile. Latest observations from the TxDOT cameras revealed dense fog located mainly over the Brownsville and Weslaco areas this morning. Exercise caution of driving out this morning. The rest of the going forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information on the weather for today and points forward. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 312 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Key Messages: * Unseasonably warm, near record-breaking temperatures are expected to continue through Saturday * Dry conditions are expected to continue with favorable marine/coastal conditions (light to moderate winds and low seas/rip current risk) Quiescent weather conditions with unseasonably warm, near record- breaking temperatures will be the theme through the short-term forecast period. During this timeframe, it will feel more like late October rather than late December as anomalously strong mid-upper level 500mb ridging centered over southern California and extending into the southern Plains will remain in place. NAEFS continue to indicate 850 mb to 925 mb (near sfc) temperatures being +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal. With the normal high and low temperatures at Brownsville/South Padre Island International Airport (KBRO) being 73F and 53F degrees, respectively, forecast highs and lows for today and Saturday will be on the order of 10-15+ degrees above climatology. We start off the short-term forecast period this morning, where I have patchy fog headlines out for mainly the eastern half of the local forecast area. The NBM via DESI and MOS guidances indicate a medium chance (30-60%) of mist/fog formation overnight into this morning. Additionally, BUFKIT soundings also indicated the likelihood of low stratus around. Furthermore, the latest sfc analysis from LAPS/MSAS revealed copious amounts of low level moisture trapped beneath a nearby weak frontal boundary draped over eastern one-third of the forecast area (roughly from Hidalgo to Kenedy County). GOES-East Nighttime Fog, Infrared, and Microphysics channels reveal mainly low stratus over the mid-lower Rio Grande Valley with mist. Any mist/fog/low stratus should erode in time through the morning. Continued warm air advection (WAA) amid light southerly winds will support temperatures climbing into the mid 80s this afternoon under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. Again, these temperatures are that of late October (unseasonably warm) and will get to near record levels today. The all-time record high on this day (Friday, December 27) for Brownsville/South Padre Island International Airport (KBRO) is 87F degrees set back in 1968. For tonight, overnight low temperatures will remain well above average for late December with values mainly in the 60s (near 70F degrees around Brownsville). The warmth continues on Saturday with continued warm air advection and southerly winds. High temperatures are once again expected to climb into the mid 80s across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Again, these values are near record levels at +1 to +2 STDEVs and 10-15+ degrees above normal. The all-time record high on for Saturday December 28 for Brownsville/South Padre Island International Airport (KBRO) is 86F degrees set back in 1921. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Thursday) Issued at 312 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 The most significant event during this portion of the total forecast will be the late Tuesday passage of a cold front. A steadily-increasing chance of rain will occur from Wednesday through Thursday, with the best chance of rain on the latter day. However, precipitation chances will generally be limited along and east of the Interstate 69C corridor. Otherwise, in advance of the Tuesday frontal passage, a nearly zonal 500 mb flow over the BRO CWFA will produce generally dry weather conditions. Temperature-wise, well above normal daytime highs and overnight lows will prevail across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley in advance of the Tuesday cold front. The passage of this boundary will then bring values to more near normal levels for Tuesday night through Thursday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 601 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Through 12z Saturday.... Key Aviation IDSS Message: * IFR-VLIFR conditions (cigs/vis) due to either low stratus and/or dense fog to continue to about 14-15z this morning. Latest observations from TXDOT Cameras reveal that patchy fog, locally dense has developed over the Lower Rio Grande Valley this morning. Additionally, the latest observations from the GOES-East Nighttime Fog, Infrared, and Microphysics imagery, and LAPS/MSAS sfc analysis shows fog and/or low stratus over portions of the region as copious amounts of low level moisture remains trapped underneath a nearby weak frontal boundary this morning. As of 5:40 AM CST, the BRO TAF sites were reporting anywhere from IFR-VLIFR conditions (cigs/vsbys) due to either low stratus and/or dense fog. The expectation is for these flying conditions to continue over the next few hours or through mid-morning before improving. Late morning to early afternoon, flying conditions should return back to mainly VFR conditions as the sun should help to scour out this morning`s dense fog and low stratus clouds. There could be a few MVFR clouds around especially late mid to late morning. Have TEMPOs out to about 14z-15z to reflect the likelihood of low stratus/dense fog. Later tonight, there exist the potential for MVFR-IFR ceilings to return due to the return of low stratus. Otherwise, expect for dry conditions and VFR conditions to prevail. Light and variable to calm winds this morning will pick up out of the south later this morning into this afternoon between 5-10 kts. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 312 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Light to moderate southerly winds and low seas will prevail through Saturday. The risk for rip currents will be low as well. (Saturday Night through Thursday) The most adverse marine conditions, featuring possibly Small Craft Advisory winds and/or seas, is anticipated for Wednesday night through Thursday due to the passage of a cold front. Outside of this time period, light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas will occur due to a modest pressure gradient and the possible passage of a weak cold front. However, brief Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions cannot be entirely ruled out. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 84 70 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 86 66 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 88 69 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 86 66 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 71 78 66 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 83 68 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1213310 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:03 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 644 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will ridge across the inland Carolinas from the north, while a weak coastal front develops offshore and moves onshore today and well inland through Saturday. Warming trend after its passage that will continue through the weekend. A cold front will move through the area late Sunday with rain that may be accompanied by isolated thunder. Brief high pressure with continued mild temps will occur Monday into Tuesday that will be followed by another cold frontal passage accompanied by modest rain chances. High pressure and near normal temps will prevail Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CAD wedge remains in place over the area, though shallower than yesterday. Overrunning due to southerly flow over the wedge continues to produce scattered light showers. Showers will continue through midday before activity shifts inland, with a dry forecast east of I-95 by late afternoon. Due to shallow nature of lift, QPF is minimal with 0.1-0.15" at best across parts of NE SC. Coastal trough currently offshore will attempt to move onshore late this afternoon, leading to a large gradient in high temps today between near 60F close to the coast and mid to upper 40s along and west of I- 95, courtesy of cloudy skies and persistent wedge. If coastal front moves onshore later than expected and low clouds linger across coastal counties, may see high temps cooler than forecasted. Tonight, the front progresses inland, leading to a warming trend overnight with lows of upper 40s/low 50s occurring early in the night. In fact, temps late tonight across most inland areas will be warmer than daytime temps today as the wedge is eroded by the front. Areas of fog are forecasted to develop west of the front tonight, with main focus along and west of I-95. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Sat features a coastal front basically along the I-95 corridor at the start of this period. And should lift further NW during the day Sat. The entire ILM CWA should be within the warm sector by Sat night under SE flow. With moist conditions, sfc-7H could see periodic showers with POPs limited in the low chance category, with some of this activity coming in off the Atl waters, as well as embedded mid-level s/w trofs. As sfc dewpoints increase to 60 and above late Sat thru Sun, sea fog, possibly dense, may become an issue along the coast. With the upper ridging off the East Coast and the FA becoming more under the influence of the approaching upper trof from the west. The mid-level s/w rotating within this upper trof will lift NE from the lower Mississippi River Valley Sat night to the Great Lakes as a closed Low Sun night. The trof axis extending from this closed low will sweep across the FA midday Sun into Sun evening, negatively tilted as it progresses across the FA. At the sfc, it will lift a warm front across the FA with winds becoming southerly and gusty later Sat night thru Sun. This will also help drive a cfp Sun night. We should see categorical POPs with this event Sun/Sun night, but have included only a slight chance for thunder, especially inland. The stable marine layer will diminish convection chances, especially near the coast however this stable layer will diminish in height the further inland 1 progresses, with thunder likely elevated but having a better chance of occurring. Temps will be warm thru this period, 10 to 15 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Flow aloft flattens out some Mon into Tue with weak sfc high progressing from the Gulf Coast States Mon to offshore from the SE States Tue. Temps Mon thru Tue, will continue nearly 15 degrees above normal. A potent mid-level s/w trof will track from the Rockies Mon to the Eastern Great Lakes by Wed morning. This will drive a somewhat moisture starved cold front, after it crosses the Appalachians, across the FA Tue night and well offshore by Wed daybreak. Have included low rain chances with its passage, with no real tapping of any major moisture sources. Look for actual and decent CAA after this CFP (especially when compared with the previous CFP). Expect dry conditions Wed and Thu with slightly above normal temps Wed and below normal temps Thu with another reinforcing CAA surge as sfc ridging extends from a strong Canadian high dropping down into central U.S. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... IFR-MVFR stratus currently across the area will prevail into this afternoon, before conditions improve at coastal terminals as coastal front begins to move inland. Low stratus will persist inland, particularly along and west of I-95 in northeast SC through tonight and into Saturday. Fog expected tonight at inland terminals, west of the front, with visibilities less than 1 mile possible. Northeast winds today will turn east- southeasterly tonight. Scattered light showers through morning will shift to west of I-95 this afternoon. Extended Outlook...Sub-VFR ceilings may linger through Saturday afternoon inland. Scattered showers possible Saturday and rain likely on Sunday, possibly including isolated thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Coastal trough currently offshore will begin to move inland as a front late this afternoon, making the most progress inland tonight. Northeast winds 15-20 kts this morning will weaken during the day as the trough moves towards the coast, with 10-15 kt onshore southeasterly winds expected by this evening across the coastal waters. Seas 3-5 ft early today will lower to 3-4 ft this afternoon into tonight as the NE wind wave weakens and the SE component slowly builds. A long period 1-2 ft easterly swell is forecasted to enter our waters late tonight. Scattered light showers will linger until midday. Saturday through Tuesday Night...For Sat thru Sat night look for SE 10-15 kt winds becoming S and increasing to 15 to 20 kt and gusty by late Sat night. This in advance of an approaching cold front. Seas 2 to 4 ft Sat to increase to 4 to 6 ft Sat night. Wind driven waves will dominate the 2 periods with an underlying 10+ second period Easterly swell. Sun thru Sun night, winds and seas will peak during this period as a sfc cold front approaches from the mainland Sun then pushes across and offshore Sun night. S winds 15 to 25 kt g30 kt Sun becoming SW same speeds Sun night. Winds 40 kt just off the deck will be prevalent Sun but the stable marine layer, where SSTs in the 50s, should prevent majority of these winds from reaching the cool ocean sfc as gusts. Best chance of 1nm or less vsby from pcpn will occur Sun aftn and evening. Sea fog may also become an issue starting later Sat thru Sat night into Sun as sfc dewpoint sin the low 60s pushes across local SSTs in the 50s. Winds become W to NW Mon with diminishing speed as weak high pressure builds in. Mon night into Tue, winds 10 kt or less with speeds variable in direction. Next cold surge occurs Tue night with SW-W winds increasing 15 to 20 kt as the sfc pg tightens.Seas will initially subside to 1 to 3 ft than build 3 to 5 ft Tue night. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1213309 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:03 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 652 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 430 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 - Warm with a few showers through Saturday. The highest chance (30-40%) for rain is along the coast. - Poor to hazardous beach and boating conditions will exist today. - Our next cold front arrives Sunday night with a 40 to 50% chance of showers and a few lightning storms. - The forecast is dry and pleasant for New Year`s Eve plans, but the risk for cold weather impacts increases in early January. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Current...Isolated to scattered showers continue to develop across the local Atlantic waters this morning. Some showers have been able to move onshore, though they have remained rather light thus far. In addition to the showers, cloud coverage remains high this morning across east central Florida thanks to a stratus deck that has set up across the area. In some spots, the stratus has sunk closer to the ground, resulting in fog and visibility reductions down to a mile or less. If you`re out driving this morning and encounter these lower visibilities, be sure to slow down, use only low beam headlights, and leave plenty of following distance between vehicles. The stratus should lift through the morning, with visibilities improving across east central Florida near to shortly after sunrise. Today-Tonight...Mid-level ridging is forecast to slide slightly eastward across the Florida peninsula today, with the associated surface high over the northeastern U.S. responding by slowly shifting eastward out over the Atlantic. Locally, winds becoming more onshore today as the high moves eastward, helping to advect moisture towards the peninsula. As a result, isolated to scattered showers are forecast to continue across the local Atlantic waters, with the easterly flow helping some activity move onshore. The highest chances across east central Florida are confined primarily along the immediate coast (30-40%), though there is a 20-30% chance of showers making it as far inland as the Orlando metro. Overall, the environment looks unfavorable for any storm development, but did decide to keep at least a 10% chance of thunder in association with any activity for today. Activity is forecast to gradually diminish into the overnight hours across the peninsula, though shower development across the local Atlantic waters is still expected. There is a low chance for activity to continue across the Treasure Coast overnight. Despite the higher cloud coverage, temperatures are still forecast to warm into the mid 70s to low 80s across east central Florida, which is approximately 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Lows will also remain approximately 10 degrees above normal, with temperatures remaining in the 60s. Saturday-Sunday...The mid-level ridge will continue to slide eastward across the Atlantic on Saturday, with a trough digging southward over the central U.S. The trough is then forecast to swing northeastward towards the Mid Atlantic on Sunday. At the surface, this will translate to the surface high shifting farther eastward as a surface low develops across the Ark-La-Tex region on Saturday. The low then lifts northward towards the Ohio Valley on Sunday, dragging its weakening attendant cold front along with it. Locally, the weakening cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the Florida peninsula Sunday into Sunday night. Rain chances across the Florida peninsula on Saturday remain around 20-30% thanks to the elevated moisture, with the best chances concentrated primarily across the Treasure Coast. Winds are forecast to veer southeastward as the surface high shifts farther east across the western Atlantic. By Sunday, rain and storm chances are forecast to increase across east central Florida out ahead of the weakening cold front. Rain chances remain around 40-50% across the area, with a 20% chance of lightning storms in association with the activity. The risk for strong storms continues to look low at this time. Activity will slowly diminish into Sunday night as the front continues southeastward, with slightly drier air helping to clear out clouds. Temperatures are forecast to remain above normal across east central Florida over the weekend, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows remaining in the 60s. Monday-Thursday...Behind the front, zonal flow aloft is forecast to set up, keeping conditions relatively mild locally. Rain chances are forecast to remain below 20 percent across the peninsula from early next week into the middle of next week, with isolated shower development across the local Atlantic waters possible. Another front may move towards the peninsula around New Years` Day, though current guidance is hinting that it will pass with very little fanfare as a result of limited moisture availability. The frontal passage on Sunday will do little to help with temperatures, with highs remaining in the 70s Monday and in the upper 70s to low 80s on Tuesday. Lows generally in the mid 50s to low 60s. The second frontal passage, however, looks as though it could cool east central Florida off slightly, with highs on Wednesday in the 70s and falling into the mid 60s to low 70s on Thursday. Lows are forecast to fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s Wednesday night, with the coolest night during the forecast period on Thursday, with lows in the 40s across all of east central Florida. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Poor to hazardous boating conditions have developed across the local Atlantic waters as a result of increasing onshore flow, with seas building up to at least 8 feet across the offshore waters. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the offshore Volusia and Brevard waters. Small craft are encouraged to exercise caution across the nearshore Volusia and Brevard waters and offshore Treasure Coast waters due to seas up to 6 feet and east-southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Poor boating conditions are forecast to continue across the Gulf Stream waters into the weekend as a result of south-southeast flow keeping seas up to at least 6 feet. Conditions are forecast to improve after a front moves across the local waters Sunday night, with winds Monday becoming light and variable around 5 to 10 knots. Seas fall to 2 to 4 feet on Monday, with boating conditions remaining generally good into the middle of next week. Isolated to scattered showers are forecast to continue across the local Atlantic waters today into Saturday, with the best rain chances forecast on Sunday out ahead of a cold front. Isolated storms cannot be ruled out on Sunday. Behind the cold front, shower chances are forecast to diminish, though isolated shower activity cannot be fully ruled out across the offshore waters. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 652 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 IFR/LIFR conditions present at nearly all terminals this morning, as a low stratus deck has spread across the area, dropping ceilings to less than 500 ft, with patchy fog producing visibility as low as 1/2 mile at a few terminals. At the same time, isolated to scattered marine showers have brushed coastal sites, with most impacts occurring at DAB presently. While fog and lower stratus will erode by 14Z, it will remain overcast most of the day. Calm to variable winds this morning become northeast, veering southeasterly around 10 knots this afternoon. Lower cig potential again later tonight after 06Z along with patchy fog. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 63 77 64 / 30 20 20 30 MCO 79 64 79 65 / 20 20 20 30 MLB 77 65 77 66 / 30 20 20 30 VRB 79 66 79 67 / 30 30 30 30 LEE 78 63 79 64 / 20 10 20 30 SFB 78 63 79 64 / 30 20 20 30 ORL 79 64 80 65 / 20 20 20 30 FPR 79 66 79 66 / 30 30 30 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ570-572. && $$ |
| #1213308 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:00 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 652 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain dry weather through Friday. Light icing is possible early Saturday ahead of a warm front, that will bring rain and milder air into the region over the weekend and into early next week. Another low pressure system may bring rain around New Years Day, then colder air should follow for the first few days of 2025. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 345 AM Update: A 1033 mb high pressure area was centered over northwest MA early this morning. Clear skies and light to calm winds have resulted in near optimal radiational cooling conditions. Many areas early this morning were down in the mid teens, while a few locations in northwest MA were in the low single digits! As is typical in strong radiational cooling situations, elevated sites tend to be "warmer", and the warmest readings are currently being observed at Worcester Airport at this hour, in the upper 20s. Tranquil weather conditions are expected for today under governing high pressure. Light winds to gradually become light out of the SW. Satellite shows a shield of high cloudiness which currently extends across west-central NY, and this stream of high clouds is forecast to advance eastward into Southern New England by late morning into the afternoon. Still, expect a generous dose of sunshine today. For temperatures...even though our 850 mb temps running around +4C today would argue for warmer readings, forecast mixing is expected to be quite shallow today and we won`t mix to that depth. Still, temperatures should rebound back into the mid 30s to lower 40s, perhaps a few mid-40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 345 AM Update: Key Messages: * A light glaze of ice from freezing rain into interior Southern New England mainly during the Saturday morning hours. Icing may linger in lower-elevation interior areas (the CT/Merrimack Valleys) into the early afternoon. Impacts from ice accretion solely limited to travel. Winter Weather Advisories issued. * Light rain across RI and much of eastern/southeast MA. * Rain becomes more intermittent/drizzly late afternoon to Saturday evening. Details... Increasing cloudiness develops tonight in response to a warm front associated with a frontal system now near the mid-MS Valley region. This feature is expected to begin to spread light precipitation by the Saturday pre-dawn hours timeframe in interior western New England, and into early Saturday morning for eastern portions of Southern New England. Before precipitation arrives, we should see some initial period of radiational cooling helping to drive temps into the mid- 20s by early overnight. During the second half of the overnight, increasing cloudiness and very light southerly flow should allow for surface temps to very slowly rise into the upper 20s for most, to around freezing for southeast New England. Precip then begins to break out around 4-6 AM Saturday in western New England, and into 5-8 AM Saturday for central and eastern portions of Southern New England. Temperatures are quite warm aloft with a pronounced warm nose and associated maximum temps in the warm nose around +6C. Precip types will be one of either rain or freezing rain, surface-temperature dependent, with no in-between. Greatest risk for light ice accretions is in interior Southern New England north and west of Interstate 95. Freezing rain should gradually transition over to plain rain from south to north as temperatures slowly warm above freezing. Model forecast soundings in lower elevations in the CT valley and Merrimack Valley show very limited mixing and a slower scour-out of sub-freezing air supporting a somewhat longer duration of FZRA for those areas. In fact, more elevated sites like the Berkshires and hills in northern Worcester County could flip above freezing several hrs before areas along the I-91 corridor would. For RI and the Boston/Providence corridor south and east, there could be some patchy slippery spots at onset as plain rain falls on cold ground given the recent spell of below normal temperatures, but felt the prevalence of freezing rain was unlikely enough to hold off on extending winter weather advisories into these areas for now. It would take an earlier arrival of precip before we would then become more concerned about the potential for light accretions of ice for the locations currently outside of the Advisory area, and that seems to be a less likely outcome given recent trends in the NWP guidance. In terms of QPF, this is a really light event. Only looking at liquid-equivalent amts of a tenth to at worst two tenths of an inch, and a fraction of that would be ice where freezing rain is expected. Following recent science behind the Freezing Rain Accumulation Methodology, very light winds and light precipitation rates with this event are both meteorological factors which should allow ice to accrete efficiently on surfaces where temps are cold enough for freezing rain. But...it`s just not a lot. A few hundredths of icing is forecast in the Advisory areas, with totals no greater than a tenth of an inch, and those higher totals more likely to be observed in the CT Valley given the longer duration and expected longer residence time of subfreezing air. Given the expected increased traffic volume coming out of the recent holidays, and that light freezing rain events often cause greater travel impacts, coordination with neighboring offices prompted issuance of Winter Weather Advisories which run from 4 AM til 1 PM Saturday. Precipitation then starts to shift offshore by late in the day into Saturday evening, as a dryslot moves in aloft. There is an abundance of trapped low level moisture underneath the dryslot, which is a classic pattern for drizzle and fog for Saturday night/overnight as the warm front more or less either stalls or washes out ahead of the next warm frontal surge slated for Sunday. Lows should reach into the mid 30s to near 40. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Messages * Mild/unsettled weather expected between Sunday and the middle of next week * Two substantial precipitation events expected Sunday night/Monday and Wednesday * Trending colder/drier late next week Sunday and Monday Deep south/southwest flow continues to advect mild air into southern New England with 925 hPa temps approaching 10 Celsius on Sunday afternoon. Skies remain cloudy on Sunday, but nonetheless we`re still anticipating well above normal surface temperatures ranging from the low to mid 50sF across the region. Continue to expect some hit or miss warm advection driven showers early Sunday, but precipitation coverage should become more steady as a frontal wave approaches southern New England from the west Sunday afternoon. This system will support wet/rainy conditions through Monday morning and perhaps into early Monday afternoon. Not expecting any frozen precipitation given the mild air mass that will be in place. Tuesday through Thursday A mid-level ridge and associated surface high pressure move over southern New England on Tuesday supporting a lull in the wet/unsettled pattern and another mild day with temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s. This lull will be short-lived as another low- pressure system brings substantial precipitation to southern New England on Wednesday. Ensemble probabilities for greater than 0.5 inches of liquid precipitation are currently hovering in the 50 to 60 percent range across the region. No signals for any snow or frozen precipitation at this time, but there could be a risk for some freezing rain across the interior Wednesday morning. We`ll have a better idea as the event draws nearer. Cool/dry conditions settle in on Thursday as the cold front associated with the aforementioned area of low-pressure moves through the region. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12Z TAF Update: Today: High confidence. VFR. Light WNW winds becoming SW around 5 kt. Tonight and Saturday: Moderate confidence. VFR for most airports through at least 06z, then we start to see SCT-BKN MVFR stratus develop near the southern airports which gradually expands north. Precipitation starts to break out 08-10z Sat for western New England TAFs, and around 10-13z Sat in central and eastern TAFs, with ceilings going to MVFR/IFR levels. Precip types will be either FZRA or RA, depending on temperature and how quickly temps recover. Best chance icy runways is at BDL, ORH and BED, though is possible at BOS if precip arrives sooner. Most areas will have trended toward rain by 16z. Rainy conditions then become more intermittent/drizzly into by early Sat evening, with IFR/LIFR conditions. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR through at least 10z Sat. Possible MVFR stratus could intrude in by 10z Sat, with steady light precip breaking out after 12z Sat. Should be in the form of rain, but could fall as -FZRA if precip comes in earlier. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Potential for light icing from -FZRA (less than 0.10") early Sat. Outlook /Sunday through Tuesday/... Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. RA likely. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. RA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. RA. Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA. Tuesday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence for next several days. High pressure over New England maintains light winds and light seas into Sat night; winds shift SW today and continue into Sat. A frontal system moves in on Saturday, however mainly light rain is expected, which could be interspersed with fog as we move into the Saturday afternoon/evening period. Increasing S/SE winds later Sun into Mon should bring building seas and periods of rain, when SCAs should be needed on most of the waters. Outlook /Sunday through Tuesday/... Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain. Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Rain. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for CTZ002>004. MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for MAZ002>006-008>012-026. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1213307 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:00 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 659 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to build in from the north through today, shifting offshore tonight through this weekend. A strong cold front will bring unsettled weather Sunday into early Monday. High pressure briefly builds back into the area Monday night, and a quick moving frontal system will bring rain showers back to the region late Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 700 AM Fri...Expanded near term PoPs across the southwest where light shower activity has persisted. Rest of the forecast remains on track this morning. Classic CAD pattern taking shape over the Carolinas this morning as surface high pressure centered over New England further entrenches itself along the Appalachians. Sharp low- level inversion has resulted in a persistent stratus deck over much of the region as 925mb WAA overruns the surface ridge. Also of note is weak elevated shower activity rotation eastward over coastal NC in tandem with weak shortwave energy despite general ridging aloft. Forecast today calls for further sharpening of the surface trough as it meanders closer to the coast. Upper level ridging as a whole will act to limit more widespread activity, but ample low-level moisture and weak shortwave activity aloft, along with the surface boundary, will likely provide just enough support for some weak activity through the rest of this morning and into the afternoon, focused mainly along and south of Highway 70. As is typical in CAD- adjacent forecasts, skies tend to be more overcast than suggested by guidance and thus temps generally too warm. Today is no exception, and leaned the official forecast towards the lower quartile of the forecast envelope favoring highs only in the low to mid 50s inland. Exception to this was along the coast where some clearing and warming is likely along and east of the trough axis, and favored temps at or above 60 here. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... As of 405 AM Fri...Surface boundary will further impinge on coastal NC overnight, resulting in winds veering southeasterly by Sat AM. Onshore trajectories point to a more noticeable rise in surface moisture, especially along the coast, and temps are likely to steadily rise for these spots with overnight lows occurring right around midnight. Farther inland, ongoing low cloud cover will keep the diurnal curve narrow. Lows for the coastal plain settle in the upper 40s, while along the coast minTs stay at or above 50. Increasing pre- frontal WAA opens the door to another risk of coastal showers by sunrise Sat. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 3 AM Fri... KEY MESSAGES *Widely scattered showers possible Saturday, otherwise it will be dry with above normal conditions *A strong cold front will move through the area Sunday into Monday morning, and has the potential to bring rain, strong winds, and severe weather to Eastern NC *Another quick shot of rain likely late Tuesday into Wednesday morning, with conditions likely turning much colder the rest of next week Saturday...As high pressure shifts offshore Saturday and southerly flow develops, the remnant coastal trough will pivot farther inland, and may help promote additional widely scattered light shower development. Low level heights will soar Saturday, and even with a mix of sun and clouds highs should rise into the low 70s away from the immediate coast where readings will remain in the 60s. Sunday and Monday...A potent upper level trough will move out of the Tennessee Valley early Sunday while a surface low deepens across the Ohio Valley. As the upper trough heads east Sunday, it will likely take on a negative tilt, and allow for deep warm air advection to develop across the Carolinas. This will swing a slow moving but potentially strong cold front through the area late Sunday into early Monday. Forecast confidence continues to increase, and have raised PoPs to 70-90%, and expanded thunder chances to include the entire forecast area as the WAA out ahead of the front taps into and advects northward Gulf of Mexico and Tropical Atlantic air. It`s still too early to say what kind of severe weather threat will accompany this front, but early indications and pattern recognition would say there is some higher end severe potential with this system, if all the ingredients can come together. The front should clear the coast by Monday morning, and high pressure moving in behind it will lead to above normal conditions continuing Monday. Tuesday through Thursday...A quick moving frontal system will zip across the Eastern US on Tuesday, and bring a shot of light rain to the Carolinas from late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Latest trends are drier for this system, so will hold chance PoPs at around 30-40% for now. Behind this system conditions will begin to turn much colder for the rest of next week as strong and cold high pressure builds in. One last day of above normal temps is likely Wednesday with highs in the low 60s, and then we`ll see highs only in the low 50s for Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 12Z Sat/... As of 700 AM Fri...The more pessimistic trend from the LAMP continues this morning. MVFR remains locked in over eastern NC terminals as low-level moisture remains trapped under shallow WAA overrunning a cold air dam wedge in place over the mid- Atlantic and Carolinas. Statistical guidance now shows MVFR holding on for much of the day as mixing remains weak. Wouldn`t be surprised to see some early scattering east of Highway 17 in the afternoon as coastal trough drifts inland. Forecast for tonight remains low confidence and is dependent on how strong and expansive the surface wedge will be. IFR or worse cigs are likely on the cool side of this boundary, and some of the more aggressive guidance has this extending into the inner coastal plain. For now, continued to lean the forecast on the more conservative side after 00z Sat but trends will need to be monitored closely through the day. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 3 AM Fri...Conditions should be mostly VFR Saturday with high pressure over the area and just some widely scattered showers. By Sunday, increasing rain chances ahead of a cold front may bring some sub-VFR conditions to the region through Monday morning. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 410 AM Fri...Marine conditions showing slow improvement this morning as offshore trough continues to meander closer to the mainland while high pressure ridge remains firmly in place over the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic. Northeasterly winds have weakened to 10-15 kt, although a few infrequent gusts to 25 kt are still being observed along the Gulf Stream. Seas have gradually ebbed, now at around 4 feet areawide. The wind threat will likely linger into the morning mainly over the outer warmer waters into this morning, and left the SCA in place from Cape Hatteras southward for this risk. Once the coastal trough drifts inland tonight, winds will weaken further and veer out of the southeast at around 10 kt. Shower activity associated with the coastal trough/front increases overnight and today, but is expected to remain thunder free. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 3 AM Fri...Half-decent boating conditions will exist until Sunday when winds increase ahead of a cold front. Winds on Saturday will increase to SE at 10-20 kts as high pressure shifts offshore. A slow moving cold front will approach Sunday and winds will increase ahead of it to S 15-25 kts by late morning, and then to 25-35 kts with gusts 40+ kts by Sunday evening across the warmer coastal waters, with winds remaining 15-25 kts over the cooler sound and nearshore shelf waters. Winds will then subside and turn to the west behind the front at 10-20 kts Tuesday. Seas will be 3-5 ft through Sunday morning, but some 6 foot seas are possible over the outer portion of the forecast zones south of Cape Hatteras. Thereafter, seas will increase as winds strengthen, becoming 5-8 ft by Sunday afternoon, and peaking at 7-12 ft early Monday morning. Seas then subside Monday to 4-6 ft by early afternoon, and then will be 2-4 ft late Monday through Tuesday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1213306 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:00 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 548 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 ...NEW UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 539 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 It appears that we are finally starting to decouple this morning and winds have largely decreased across much of the region. This may become a slight problem with the lower wind speeds in terms of stratus build down fog potential. In fact, the last hour MSY winds have dropped below 10kts and visibilities have dropped to 2SM. Furthermore, over the past half hour here at ASD the winds have dropped to around 05kt and visibilities have dropped from 10SM to now 2SM, partly due because showers, but likely also from stratus build down. We`ll keep monitoring, but a short fused dense fog advisory may be needed if more widespread dense fog is apparent through the morning. (Frye) && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 301 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 A band of convection developed last evening across central and southwest Louisiana along or just slightly a head of an advancing cold frontal boundary. This convection has started to weaken quite considerably over the last hour or two as the upper level trough begins to lift out taking much of the upper forcing along with it. Out ahead of this front the surface flow has actually remained quite moderate as the surface has yet to decouple. This is helping with moisture return and in some instances allowed the surface from cooling much. A low stratus deck continues to reside over the area and some stratus build down fog, if you will, has developed, especially over the lake. Hazy conditions haven`t become too consequential this morning as again the moderate low level flow is keeping visibilities at the surface in good shape. The surface frontal boundary is forecast to stall over/near the central Gulf Coast today. Despite the loss of some upper support we cannot rule out additional showers and storms, however, intensity and coverage appear to be limited. Later today and especially tonight we`ll begin to monitor an amplifying shortwave over the high plains. As the trough begins to amplify the residual surface front will begin to lift northward as a warm front. Along the front and with dynamic support from a perfectly timed H3 jet arrival, some showers and storms will develop along this boundary. The boundary will surge northward quickly allowing the warm sector to overspread the region by around noon. There is at least some severe weather potential initially with the warm front depending on timing of the upper forcing. Initially north of the front, elevated hailers would be the primary focus, however, right along the boundary, surface based instability will allow for at least a lower-end tornado potential early on as the front surges northward. Going into Saturday afternoon, guidance is a little murky in terms of what to expect. CAMs coming into range tell a very different story depending on the model. The key here is that moderate surface based instability should be around. With the surface low developing over the Delta Region, expect surface winds to back slightly adding at least some element of curvature to the low level hodograph. SRH looks to increase to around 200-300 M2/S2 as the LLJ begins to increase later in the afternoon. A line or broken line of storms should develop along the advancing frontal boundary. Any storm would have the potential to become severe with strong damaging wind gusts, hail, and a tornado potential would also be present. A stronger tornado or two cannot be ruled out over SW Mississippi and generally north of I12 in Louisiana where the higher instability and strongest wind shear will reside. Ahead of the line (or lines) of storms, we`ll have to monitor any cells that develop. Supercells wouldn`t be out of the question, especially in the unstable highly sheared environment. There are still some questions and potential limitations such as early convection disrupting low level thermals limiting instability, but this could be compensated for with such a strong moisture rich low level flow. Eventually, the front rolls through during the overnight hours Saturday taking the convection east of our region by Sunday morning. As for temperatures, with the strong southerly or southeasterly low level flow, above average is anticipated through the short term with temperatures climbing into the 70s for most both today and Saturday and some locations may end up close to 80F (looking at BTR). (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 301 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Dry west-northwesterly flow sets up behind the passing short wave and frontal boundary. Without much of a plunge in terms of a larger scale trough, temperatures will not change very much...just a little reduced humidity early in the long term. Overall, the pattern evolves to about more of the same...zonal/progressive to start the new workweek. Surface high pressure will see to it that we stay quiet at least Monday. Another upper level impulse begins to amplify over the cornbelt early to midweek next week, however, this feature stays well to our north. Although it does help drag a cold front through the region Tuesday or early Wednesday. Surface high pressure then makes its way east out of Texas and Oklahoma again keeping the weather on the quiet side and it is then that we will have another cool down as the large scale upper trough amplifies east of the Rockies. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 539 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Overall, IFR conditions expected through much of this cycle for most of the local terminals. There could be some exceptions here or there in terms of slightly better (MVFR/VFR briefly) or slightly worse respectively. Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will be possible. Tried to nailed down timing and confidence with PROBs and TEMPOs again respectively. More low stratus/VIS issues by the end of the cycle with some improvement for MSY between the 24-30 hour window. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 301 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Marine fog over the lakes this morning will continue. Also, surface winds remain in the cautionary headline range at least for the next few hours before winds begin to subside. Going into the weekend southerly winds and seas should stay rather benign. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Saturday night as a cold front moves through the region. This will shift winds to a more northerly direction briefly before returning to a more southerly/onshore flow by the start of the new workweek. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 73 60 72 56 / 70 20 90 80 BTR 78 64 78 59 / 70 20 90 70 ASD 77 62 76 59 / 60 30 80 80 MSY 78 64 76 61 / 50 20 80 70 GPT 71 61 72 60 / 70 40 70 90 PQL 76 62 77 60 / 80 50 70 90 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ530-534. MS...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ534. && $$ |
| #1213305 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:45 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 632 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures increase through Sunday with mild conditions expected everywhere by Sunday. Light rain is possible mainly across the Piedmont today. Rain chances increase through the weekend with widespread showers expected on Sunday. A few embedded storms are also possible Sunday. Mild and unsettled weather continues through the end of 2024 with cooler conditions returning in 2025. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM EST Friday... - Cool with increasing clouds through the day. - Light rain or drizzle is possible across the Piedmont this afternoon into tonight. - Fog is possible tonight across mainly the Piedmont. Early morning surface analysis depicts high pressure over the area (centered over interior New England) with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temps as of 330 AM ranged from the upper 20s to lower 30s inland with upper 30s to around 40F along the coast. Cloud cover increases in coverage today as the high slowly moves offshore. Given the high position, CAD is expected today with light NE winds and highs in the mid 40s across the Piedmont and upper 50s to near 60F across SE VA/NE NC. Light rain/drizzle is possible across the Piedmont this afternoon into tonight as a series of shortwaves move towards the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes, creating isentropic ascent over the surface wedge of cooler air in place. Rain chances increase late tonight with PoPs of 60-75% across portions of the Piedmont. However, rainfall totals will generally be light with generally <0.1" except around 0.1" across the far NW Piedmont. Clouds keep temps from cooling much overnight with lows in the upper 30s NW to upper 40s SE expected. Additionally, given high RH overnight and a sharp temperature inversion, widespread fog will also be possible overnight with the best chance across the Piedmont (where the inversion is the strongest). Locally dense fog is possible into Sat morning. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 420 AM EST Friday... Key Message: - Fog is possible across the Piedmont Saturday morning. - Light rain is likely Saturday mainly along and west of I-95. - Widespread rain is likely on Sunday with a few embedded storms possible. A few strong to severe storms are possible. - Mild temperatures return Saturday east of I-95 and Sunday across the entire area. High pressure continues to move offshore Sat with warm front gradually lifting N across the FA through the day. CAD will be in place and will likely be slow to erode across the Piedmont (as is often the case this time of year). As such, have leaned heavily towards the NAM with respect to temperatures Sat given that most other model guidance appears too fast with the erosion of the CAD. This will allow for quite a range of temperatures across the FA with highs Sat in the mid 40s NW and upper 60s to near 70F across SE VA/NE NC. The CAD finally erodes by Sat night with temps warming through the night into the upper 50s for most by sunrise Sun morning. Off and on light rain is likely through the day on Sat generally along and W of I-95 and extending NE towards Salisbury, MD. Meanwhile, portions of SE VA/ NE NC likely remain dry through the day. Rainfall totals will likely be a bit higher Sat than today with totals of around 0.2-0.3" across the Piedmont. Attention turns to a developing area of low pressure across lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley Sat. This low moves NE into the Ohio Valley and towards the Great Lakes Sun. As the low moves NE, it will push a cold front towards the local area with widespread showers and embedded storms likely along and ahead of the front. Models still show some timing discrepancies with respect to the timing of the front across the local area. However, the general timeframe is Sun afternoon into Sun evening. While CAPE remains generally low, a few hundred J/kg of CAPE is likely across the entire FA (given dew points rising to around 60F) with the highest values across the SW portion of the FA. While timing of the front and associated storms is important with respect to maximizing severe potential during the most favorable part of the day, in the cool season, high-shear low-cape (HSLC) setups are not as reliant upon favorable timing given that they are kinematically driven as opposed to thermodynamically driven. That being said, forecast soundings indicate plentiful low-level shear and SRH given a 40-50 kt low level jet. As such, a few strong to severe storms are possible along a forced line of convection along/ahead of the cold front. Given the setup, SPC has placed the SW two-thirds of the FA under a marginal risk for severe storms Sun with the main threats being damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. the far SW portion of the FA is under a slight risk for severe storms given the locally more favorable timing and slightly higher CAPE values. Showers move offshore by Sun night. Rainfall totals through Sun nigh of 0.5-1.0" across the FA are expected with lowest totals across the E portion of the FA and highest totals across the Piedmont (locally 1-1.5" is possible). Additionally, given the WAA across the FA Sun, mild temps are expected across the area with highs in the mid 60s to around 70F expected (most in the upper 60s). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 435 AM EST Friday... Key Messages: - Mild temperatures persist through New Year`s Day. - Scattered showers are possible Tuesday into Tuesday night. - Cooler and drier conditions return for the middle to latter part of the week. Mild and dry conditions are expected Mon behind the cold front given minimal CAA. Another low pressure system moves towards the Ohio Valley Tue before phasing with a developing coastal low off of the New England coast Wed. Given the track of the lows, the bulk of the rain will likely remain N of the local area. However, scattered showers are possible Tue into Tue night with the best chance across the Eastern Shore. The cold front from this system pushes through late Tue night into early Wed, ushering in cooler and drier air for the beginning of 2025. Highs are expected to range from the low-mid 60s Mon, upper 50s N to upper 60s S Tue (most in the mid 60s), mid- upper 50s Wed, lower 40s NW to around 50F SE Thu, and upper 30s NW to low-mid 40s SE Fri. The next chance for below freezing temps arrives Wed night with temps in the lower 30s inland (mid-upper 30s along the coast). Widespread temps in the 20s arrive Thu night. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 630 AM EST Friday... Widespread cloud cover has developed across the region early this morning with a mixture of stratus and cirrus. Some MVFR stratus was noted across the far N and S portions of the FA. However, model guidance has not been doing well with depicting this. SBY and ECG may drop to MVFR CIGs (2500-3000 ft CIGs) briefly this morning, but confidence is low given the aforementioned lack of model guidance showing this. Nevertheless, have added TEMPOs for these two terminals to account for the potential given nearby obs showing MVFR CIGs. Additionally, some patchy fog (4-6 SM VIS) was noted across central VA including RIC but should quickly dissipate after sunrise. Otherwise, cloud cover increases through the day with lowering CIGs and fog possible tonight (highest confidence across the Piedmont). Outlook: This weekend, as high pressure moves offshore, a warm front will push north through the area bringing chances of rain Sat with rain likely on Sunday, as a cold front moves through the area. A few embedded thunderstorms are also possible Sunday. Degraded conditions are possible Friday night through Sunday between low CIGs, fog, and rain. Dry/VFR conditions return Mon, as high pressure builds in from the W. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EST Friday... Key Messages: - Relatively benign conditions continue through Saturday. - SCA conditions are likely across the marine area Sunday with increasing southerly winds. High pressure remains centered N/NE of the local marine area early this morning, bringing a N-NE wind of 10-15 kt. Seas are 2-3 ft N and 3-4 S, with waves 1-2 ft in the Bay, rivers, and sound. The sfc high is forecast to settle a bit S into the region later today, allowing the pressure gradient to weaken, with winds diminishing to 5-10 kt and becoming E to SE tonight, as a warm front lifts N through the area. Winds will only average 5-10 kt tonight through midday Saturday, with dew pts expected to rise well above sfc water temperature. This setup may lead to marine fog. S winds eventually increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late Saturday and Sat night which would tend to break up the fog during that timeframe. Winds continue to increase to 15-25 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt Sun into Sun night ahead of an approaching low pressure system and associated cold front. It will be a very warm airmass so mixing over the water will be limited outside of convection. There is still a strong enough pressure gradient and a strong low level jet that confidence is high at seeing SCAs, along with seas building to 5-7 ft. The chc for Gales is very low however. Widespread showers with embedded storms move across the local waters Sun into Sun evening ahead of and along the aforementioned cold front and locally that could bring down the stronger winds with 925mb winds 50 kt+ (situation that would be handled w/ SMWs). Winds become W behind the cold front Mon. Will note that a brief period of gusty W winds is possible behind the cold front, but CAA is weak and the pressure gradient quickly looks to relax Min aftn/Mon night. High pressure builds in early next week with an unsettled pattern again developing around New Year`s Day or beyond. A lot of uncertainty at this range, but the overall theme would be for stronger CAA and W-NW winds late next week, with at least SCAs likely. Waves and seas were generally 1-2 ft and 2-4 ft (2-3 ft N and 3-4 ft across the NC coastal waters) respectively this afternoon. Waves and seas build to 3-4 ft and 4-6 ft respectively by Sun with seas potentially remaining elevated through Mon. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1213304 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:45 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 631 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Coastal troughing will shift inland through tonight. A cold front will approach from the west Saturday, crossing the area later Sunday into Monday morning. Another cold front could impact the area Tuesday, followed by high pressure dominating mid-to-late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: Tricky forecast on tap primarily due to the inland push of a nearby coastal trough and the implications for several forecast parameters. Aloft, a ridge axis will shift east of the area this morning with a couple of shortwaves lifting northeastward into the Ohio Valley and the mid Mississippi Valley. The forecast area will be displaced from these, with primarily southwest flow across the region. At the surface, the day begins with a well established cold air damming wedge across Georgia and the Carolinas, and a coastal trough situated just off the coast. This trough will be the main feature of interest as it will be the focus for continued rainfall this morning and will have significant impacts on the temperature forecast. The main moisture and precipitation plume within the coastal trough continues to stream onshore, bringing consistent rainfall to the SC coast up through the Charleston Tri-County region. The trough is forecast to gradually lose definition and shift inland later today. Until it does, steady rainfall will continue through the morning, with decreasing coverage and rain chances this afternoon expected. The forecast features near 100 percent rain chances this morning for all or portions of Beaufort, Colleton, and the Tri-County region, diminishing to 20 percent or less by the late afternoon. Temperatures today will be exceedingly tricky to get right. Once the trough shifts inland, low-level flow will turn easterly or southeasterly and will allow for temperatures to rise. However, the timing of this inland movement will be difficult, and typically model guidance is too quick to allow this process to happen. The forecast allows for this to happen beginning in the mid to late afternoon. Therefore, most of the day will not bring much significant temperature rise until the trough passes. Also, locations further inland will be last to see this occur so confidence in the temperature forecast decreases as you progress inland. Overall, expect a tier of low 50s for areas right along the counties bordering the SC Midlands, ranging to low 60s along the coastal corridor. Tonight: The trough should completely clear the forecast area by the late evening and early morning hours, with southeast flow spreading in. A much milder night is on tap as temperatures hold steady or even rise in many areas. The forecast advertises low to mid 50s inland and upper 50s along the coast. With the passage of the trough, the area will be largely devoid of any forcing and focusing mechanism for showers overnight. However, there could still be isolated showers within the onshore flow so we do carry a 20 percent chance of showers late. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... H5 heights begin to gradually fall Saturday as upper troughing digs toward the eastern US. At the surface, weak troughing over the area will dissipate within the broader pre-frontal flow on Saturday morning, with diminishing rainfall changes after sunrise. Onshore flow/WAA prevails through the rest of the day, with temps reaching into the 70s for most despite mostly cloudy skies. The afternoon precip forecast remains somewhat uncertain, as ample moisture exists in the lower to mid levels with SBCAPE values potentially approaching 300 J/kg, but persistent subsidence aloft and lack of any significant lift look to win out with very limited coverage of showers through the afternoon. Deeper moisture arrives Saturday night with POPs beginning to trend greater accordingly. The primary band of prefrontal moisture arrives during the day Sunday, coincident with the strongest QG forcing from DPVA and height falls aloft. Expect showers across the area Sunday, with greatest coverage in the afternoon. Additionally, some stronger convective elements could develop midday into the afternoon as CAPE surges to around 1000+ J/kg, and 0-6km shear reaches around 35-40 kt. The conditional threat for organized convection, potentially in the form of a QLCS or hybrid supercell/multicell structure, requires continued monitoring, with elements like AM cloud/precip coverage factoring into the eventual character of the severe weather threat. The front will push offshore Sunday night into Monday morning, with drier, weak high pressure building in briefly from the west. Limited post-frontal CAA and increasing sunshine will keep temps above normal on Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Primary potentially-impactful feature of note in the long term is a cold front that will likely cross the area Tuesday. While modest WWA ahead of the cold front will bring increasingly warm and humid conditions, upper forcing is very limited, and overall precip is expected to be very limited ahead of the front Tuesday. Behind the cold front, drier high pressure builds in from the west, with lack of particularly strong CAA resulting in only a gradual cooling trend mid to late week. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... KCHS/KJZI: The 12z TAF period begins with persistent light rain and IFR conditions. Light rain should continue through about midday, then taper off to just isolated showers early in the afternoon. IFR ceilings are expected to stick around into the early afternoon as well before lifting to MVFR. A surface trough will shift inland late this afternoon and into the evening, which will allow for VFR conditions to return and winds will turn to become southeasterly for the overnight. KSAV: IFR conditions are in place to begin the 12z TAF period and the terminal is just barely to the west of ongoing light rain and drizzle. It is possible that drizzle could impact the terminal for a few hours this morning, but it will be a close call. IFR conditions are expected to linger into early afternoon. MVFR ceilings could then stick around through the late evening hours before VFR conditions and southeasterly winds arrive behind a passing surface trough. Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions in low clouds and showers are possible at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals Saturday afternoon and night, then become more likely with the arrival of showers and/or thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday night as a cold front passes through the region. Prevailing VFR conditions are then expected early next week. && .MARINE... Today through tonight: The coastal trough is expected to shift inland this afternoon and evening. As it does, the gradient will relax and winds and seas will both improve with time. Winds will be strongest this morning with 15-20 knots across the nearshore waters. As we move into the evening and overnight, winds will turn easterly and then southeasterly with wind speeds mostly in the 10-15 knot range. Seas will peak this morning, with up to 6 feet across the nearshore waters and up to 7 feet in the outer waters. By late tonight, expect 2-4 feet across the nearshore waters and 4-5 feet in the outer waters. Ongoing Small Craft Advisories will come down through the day, and we should be clear of all advisories by sunrise Saturday. Breezy S winds develop later Saturday into Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds could reach near SCA strength, but some uncertainty remains with regard to how well the warm airmass will mix across the shelf/nearshore waters. Current probabilities for wind gusts to 25 kt across the nearshore waters Sunday is around 20-30%, and closer to 60-70% over the Gulf Stream. Accordingly, seas increase to 4-7 ft during the strongest winds Sunday. Winds diminish Monday, before becoming moderate to breezy ahead of another cold front Tuesday. The sea fog threat also requires monitoring over the weekend and into early next week. While dew points will surge well into the 60s Saturday/Sunday and again Tuesday, wind direction/speed does not currently look particularly favorable for the BL flow to have the residence time over the cooler shelf waters (lower to mid 50s SST) necessary to develop a significant sea fog threat. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ350-352-354. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1213303 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:45 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 543 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Predominately IFR ceilings are expected today with a mix of LIFR/IFR ceilings tonight, with the potential for VLIFR conditions in fog developing near the coast late tonight. Periods of scattered to potentially numerous showers and embedded storms are anticipated to affect much of the area. Southeasterly winds around 10 knots become southerly to southeasterly around 5 knots tonight. /29 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 425 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Saturday Night) Issued at 424 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 An active weather pattern is anticipated through the period. An upper trof over the central states takes on a negative tilt while lifting off towards the Great Lakes region through tonight. Another upper trof quick on the heels of the first trof evolves over the southern/central Plains late tonight into Saturday morning then takes on a slight negative tilt while progressing into the southeastern states Saturday night. A warm front currently extends from central Mississippi down into the Alabama and western Florida panhandle coastal waters and is expected to lift northward through the forecast area today. MLCAPE values increase to around 1000 J/kg over southeast Mississippi this afternoon, tapering to lower values further to the east due to less favorable low level lapse rates. For tonight, MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg are expected over the western portions of the area and could spread eastward overnight, but this depends on how much improvement there is in the low level lapse rates. A 25-40 knot 850 mb jet this afternoon diminishes to 20- 25 knots tonight, resulting in 0-3 km helicity values of 200-300 m2/s2 today dropping off to 100-150 m2/s2. As the first upper trof brushes past the forecast region along with a series of shortwaves, this appears to favor two rounds of showers and storms, although there is uncertainty with just how much forcing will be available and as a result just how much convection develops. That said, am anticipating a first round of storms to develop to the west and advance mainly across the western and central portions of the area through the day into the early evening hours. A second round of showers and storms is then anticipated to advance across much of the area from late afternoon into the late night hours. Given the environment, there is the potential for some strong to severe storms, tempered by uncertainty with the strength of the forcing and also by how quickly low level lapse rates can improve over the central and eastern portions of the area. The Storm Prediction Center currently has a Marginal Risk of severe storms for the entire area. A surface low is expected to develop over the southern Plains by Saturday morning then advance to the Mississippi/Ohio River confluence by early Saturday evening before lifting into the interior eastern states Saturday night. The surface low is expected to bring a cold front into the western portion of the forecast area by late Saturday night. As an upper trof advances into the region along with a series of shortwaves and the approach of the cold front, convection is expected to develop across the area by Saturday afternoon, with a broken squall line progressing across the area starting as early as late Saturday afternoon and continuing into early Sunday morning. An 850 mb jet increases to 25-40 knots Saturday afternoon then to 30-50 knots Saturday evening before diminishing somewhat during the late night hours, providing for plenty of favorable shear. MLCAPE values increase to 1000-1500 J/kg over the western half of the area by Saturday afternoon (with lower values further east), then are expected to spread into much of the remaining eastern portion overnight. The best deep layer forcing/instability/shear will be over southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama where the Storm Prediction Center has an Enhanced Risk of severe storms. A Slight Risk of severe storms exists for much of the remainder of the area except for the far eastern and coastal areas where less favorable instability is anticipated. Along with the potential for severe weather through the period, the southerly flow of warm and moist air over cool near shore waters will likely lead to sea fog forming especially over Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound this afternoon, with fog spreading inland tonight. Confidence in visibilities dropping to 1 nm or less over the marine portion was not quite high enough to issue a Dense Fog Advisory at this point so will defer to the next shift. It`s possible that a Dense Fog Advisory could also become necessary for much of the land portion of the area tonight. A High Risk of rip currents is expected through Saturday night. /29 LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 424 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 The area quickly dries out through the day on Sunday as a cold front sweeps across the area. Prior to the cold front, a broken line of storms will exit the area from west to east throughout the morning hours. Any strong to severe storms should be out of the area by 7- 8am on Sunday with some showers and storms lingering through mid- morning for locations generally east of the I-65 corridor. This is not a very potent cold front as temperatures only fall into the 40s and 50s Sunday night into Monday morning. A surface high quickly builds into the region on the backside of the rain and the area dries out Sunday afternoon through Monday. The surface high slides out of the area (just as fast as it slid in here) and onshore flow becomes established again by Monday afternoon. Isolated showers are expected on Tuesday as a subtle, fast-moving shortwave slides into the Midwest. Moisture return looks to be meager on Tuesday as another cold front slides into the area. We are not anticipating any severe weather ahead of this front, however, temperatures will tumble in the wake of the front. While it will be chilly Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the bigger push of cold air will occur the following three nights. Temperatures will fall below freezing across interior areas Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Lows will plunge into the upper 20s to low 30s for all locations north of I-10 Thursday night into Friday morning. The coldest night of the week looks to be Friday night into Saturday where temperatures plummet into the mid to upper 20s across inland locations with temperatures hovering just above freezing at the beaches. Highs on Thursday and Friday will struggle in the cold air advection regime with temperatures hovering in the 50s both days. 07/mb MARINE... Issued at 424 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 A Small Craft Advisory for the open Gulf waters has been extended until 15Z this morning to allow sufficient time for southeasterly winds to diminish. Small craft should otherwise exercise caution until early afternoon for the open Gulf waters. Sea fog is expected to develop especially over Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound this afternoon and continue through at least much of Saturday afternoon. A Dense Fog Advisory may become necessary. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 73 62 74 61 73 47 71 56 / 80 50 80 90 20 0 0 20 Pensacola 71 64 73 63 73 52 70 60 / 70 60 70 90 40 0 0 20 Destin 71 64 74 66 75 55 71 62 / 40 50 60 90 50 10 0 20 Evergreen 70 59 74 60 73 45 71 52 / 60 60 70 90 30 0 0 20 Waynesboro 73 61 73 57 70 45 71 53 / 80 40 80 90 10 0 0 20 Camden 66 59 72 59 70 45 70 52 / 70 70 80 90 20 0 0 20 Crestview 73 60 76 61 77 47 73 52 / 40 50 60 90 50 0 0 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ650-655- 670-675. && $$ |
| #1213302 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 615 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 111 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Today, the sub-tropical jet is expected to dip southwards over the region coupled with a weak shortwave that will zip across South Florida. At the same time, a diffuse surface boundary across the Florida Straits will gradually begin to retrograde. With the arrival of a deeper plume of moisture (1.5-1.7 inches precipitable water values) and a little bit of more moisture in the mid-levels, there is the potential for higher rain chances (30-40%) across northeastern portions of the region. While forecasted rain totals (QPF) currently suggest rainfall totals today less than an inch, HREF`s LPMM indicates the potential of heavier thunderstorm activity just offshore with the potential of 2-3 inches of total rainfall. While this remains the most probable scenario of how things play out (any thunderstorms remaining offshore over the best instability over the Gulfstream), if a thunderstorm was able to brush or move over land, some higher rainfall totals (2-3 inches) could be realized. On Saturday, the higher PWAT airmass is expected to linger which could continue the increased (30-40%) chance for showers through the first half of the weekend especially over far southern portions of the Florida peninsula and local waters. Expect maybe a couple rounds of rainfall on and off throughout Saturday with potential to continue into the evening hours. High temperatures are expected to reach the upper 70s to low 80s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 111 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 PWATs will remain elevated (1.5-1.7 inches) through Sunday which will likely lead to yet another day of periodic on and off rainfall, although chances will remain on the lower end overall (20-30%). A robust mid-latitude short-wave trough will traverse the mid-Atlantic and eastern US early next week, allowing drier air to work its way across South Florida, which will reduce rain chances and cloud coverage. A stray shower could still be possible during this time period mainly across eastern portions of the area, though dry conditions will prevail. A strong cold front may develop by the late week period next week and traverse the southeastern United States. With that being said, a notable disparity exists amongst long- range model guidance in regards to timing and strength of post-frontal cold-air advection, given that this event is about a week from occurring. Nonetheless, late next week seems to be our next shot at a cooler airmass. Temperatures remain seasonable through the long term period, with maximum temperatures generally reaching the upper 70s/lower 80s each afternoon. Overnight, expect low temperatures in the 60s/70s along the interior/east coast respectively. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Gentle, breezy easterly winds may become gusty and more southeasterly mid- morning, with gusts up to 20 kts forecast. A few stray light showers could move across each terminal but no impacts or restrictions are anticipated. && .MARINE... Issued at 111 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Gentle to moderate easterly breeze expected today over most area waters with a fresh breeze developing over the Atlantic waters beginning this afternoon. Seas 2-3 ft in the Atlantic waters building to 3-5 ft through the day. Seas in the Gulf generally 2 ft or less. && .BEACHES... Issued at 111 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 There is a high risk of rip currents across all East Coast beaches due to increased easterly flow through at least Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 71 79 71 / 20 20 20 20 West Kendall 80 68 80 69 / 30 20 20 20 Opa-Locka 81 70 80 70 / 20 20 30 20 Homestead 79 71 80 70 / 30 20 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 78 71 77 71 / 20 30 30 20 N Ft Lauderdale 78 71 78 71 / 20 30 30 20 Pembroke Pines 82 71 82 71 / 20 20 30 20 West Palm Beach 79 70 78 70 / 30 30 30 20 Boca Raton 81 70 79 71 / 30 30 30 20 Naples 81 66 80 66 / 20 20 20 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1213301 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 529 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 133 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Key Messages: - Foggy Conditions expected this morning and again tonight - Well Above Normal Daytime Temperatures A weak boundary was draped along the coast extending northeast into Louisiana this morning and is expected to dissipate. Given the high surface moisture, light winds and dry conditions aloft, dense fog will be the result. Expect the fog to spread inland from the immediate coastal areas through daybreak. As the fog spreads inland, we will expand the dense fog advisory accordingly. The fog should burn off by mid morning revealing a mostly sunny and warm day across South Texas with max temps in the low to mid 80s. Foggy conditions are expected again tonight and should be more widespread impacting much of the coastal plains and brush country out to Laredo. Will likely need a dense fog advisory again tonight. The next mid-level trough and associated Pacific front will advance across the southern plains on Saturday. The tail end of this front will sweep across South Texas Saturday afternoon with winds shifting from the southwest to the northwest. The southwest winds ahead of the this boundary will allow temps to soar to well above normal reaching the mid 80s over most of the region which is 15 to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year. There is no appreciable chance for rain in the short term forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 133 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Key Messages: - Very warm temperatures to continue this weekend into Monday. - Strong cold front expected Tuesday. As the 500 mb low moves to the east the cold front moves through and the sfc low ends up in Arkansas. Precipitation stays off shore Saturday night into Sunday. The cold front washes out with the cooler air staying north of the Hill Country. Temperatures drop a bit from the Mid 80s on Saturday to the upper 70s-lower 80s Sunday. We get ridging Sunday night into Monday so that the high temperatures get much above normal with highs ranging lower 80s in the Victoria Crossroads to around 90s in the Rio Grande Plains Monday. Considering that the 75th percentile for the highs that day are running in the upper 80s to lower 90s, it won`t be surprising if LRD would be over 90F. However, the very warm temperatures look to be short lived, as the next cold front moves into the region Monday night into Tuesday. The front looks strong from a temperature stand point, with expected highs of ranging through the 70s on Tuesday. While the front, thermally, is strong there is a lot of dry air so no rain is expected on either the GFS or the ECMWF. The chances of rain on the NBM remain less than 10%. The cold air really sinks south, based on the position and strength of the sfc high (about 1033 mb in north/east Texas Thursday afternoon). Highs for Wednesday through Friday are lower to mid 60s, although the GFS and the CMC show 50s for highs on Friday and Saturday. Will stick with the current NBM as the GFS and CMC are in the NBM`s 10th percentile. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 518 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Patchy dense fog will impact immediate coastal areas for the next few hours. Farther inland across the coastal plains only expect light fog at best with tempo groups for IVR conditions through 14 or 15z. Once the fog burns off, VFR conditions with light winds will prevail until tonight when widespread low clouds and fog are expected to redevelop. Fog could be locally dense again with LIFR conditions possible between 10-14z Saturday. && .MARINE... Issued at 133 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Areas of dense fog will persist through mid morning before dissipating. A weak onshore flow will develop today and persist through Saturday. A Pacific cold front will move off the coast Saturday night with light north winds developing in its wake. Onshore winds return Sunday Night becoming moderate on Monday. A strong cold front will move off the coast Tuesday with a moderate to strong northeast flow Tuesday night and Wednesday. Winds, becoming weak to moderate by Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 81 66 83 55 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 80 61 83 50 / 0 0 10 0 Laredo 82 62 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 83 63 86 51 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 76 64 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 83 61 87 49 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 82 65 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 74 67 78 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1213300 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:30 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 614 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 403 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 A fairly interesting pattern is expected today with warm, moist air aloft continuing to overrun on top of a shallow cooler layer at the surface. This will lead to thick cloud cover sticking around for much of the morning and even into the afternoon today with high temperatures generally in the low 60s to low 70s. A surface low near the ArkLaTex this morning is forecast to push eastward a bit today as a shortwave rotates across the Plains. While this feature will stay west of us for now, it will help a warm front extending southeastward into the Gulf to begin pushing northward into our area. This will help erode that stubborn shallow layer of cool air at the surface while also helping bring a few more showers into the forecast later today and tonight. Thick cloud cover and perhaps some fog depending on if the winds decouple overnight will be likely late tonight into early Saturday morning. If fog does develop, it could very likely become quite dense due to the further increases in moisture across the region. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 403 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Saturday night into Sunday morning. Some of the storms over southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle could be strong to severe. Outside of the storms, temperatures will climb into the 70s Saturday and Sunday afternoons with lows in the 60s Saturday night and tumbling temperatures as a cold front moves through Sunday night. A strong H5 shortwave will be moving through the Southern Plains on Saturday before taking on a negative tilt as it approaches the Deep South. In response to this shortwave, a surface low develops in southern Oklahoma before moving through southern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and central Tennessee. Ahead of the surface low, a robust 40 to 50 knot low-level jet (LLJ) gets cranking across the Southeast Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Due to some timing differences among the model guidance, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather across the western half of our area, or a line from Apalachicola to near Albany and points to the west through 7am EST/6am CST Sunday and a Marginal Risk for all of the area after 7am EST/6am CST; this timing wind will be fine tuned in future forecasts. Damaging wind is the primary concern with a couple tornadoes and hail also possible. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 403 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Another cold front is forecast to swing through the region late Tuesday into Wednesday Ahead of that front temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 70s before easing back into the 50s and 60s for highs following the front. Not much rain is anticipated with this cold front with ensemble guidance showing a less than 20% chance of picking up more than 0.1" of rain. Aloft, an H5 ridge over the Caribbean stretches into the Gulf of Mexico as a brief bout of zonal flow takes over the southern third of the country. A quick shortwave slicing through the Ohio River Valley will send a cold front through here Tuesday night into Wednesday. With little moisture return ahead of it, not much, if any, rain is expected at this time. Following the front, temperatures will ease back closer to seasonal normals to start 2025 with highs in the 60s on Wednesday and back into the 50s on Thursday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Widespread IFR to LIFR conditions are expected to continue this morning before very slowly improving to MVFR later this afternoon. Another round of IFR to LIFR conditions are expected late tonight into early Saturday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 403 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Moderate to fresh southeasterly breezes continue today before decreasing to light to moderate tonight into Saturday. Winds clock around from the southeast today to southerly Saturday ahead of a cold front. This cold front will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially west of Apalachicola. Winds turn more westerly to northwesterly following the cold front Sunday into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 403 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Increasing moisture is expected to continue today and Saturday ahead of the next frontal system. A shallow layer of cooler air will likely persist today before eroding when a warm front pushes northward across the area later this evening and tonight. Cloud cover will likely persist for much of the day today, leading dispersions to be poor to fair across the area today and only slightly better on Saturday. A cold front will push through the area on Sunday with cooler and drier conditions in its wake. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 403 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 No flooding concerns are anticipated the next several days. Rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches with the next few systems are expected across southeast Alabama and the Panhandle, with lesser amounts further east across the Big Bend and southern Georgia. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 68 61 74 64 / 0 10 20 70 Panama City 69 62 74 63 / 10 20 40 80 Dothan 65 59 75 63 / 10 20 40 80 Albany 64 59 75 63 / 0 10 30 70 Valdosta 68 62 78 64 / 10 10 40 60 Cross City 74 61 79 63 / 10 10 20 40 Apalachicola 65 62 70 62 / 10 10 20 70 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ750-752- 770-772. && $$ |
| #1213299 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:00 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 551 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 551 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 LIFR to VLIFR conditions will prevail through at least 14Z at the regional terminals. Isolated showers have begun moving onshore along coastal northeast FL, with light showers expected at SGJ after 13Z. Confidence was too low to indicate anything other than vicinity shower coverage at the Duval County terminals and GNV today. Shower coverage will then shift northward over coastal southeast GA during the late afternoon and early evening hours, with onset of light rainfall expected after 22Z at SSI. Ceilings and visibilities will slowly improve outside of shower activity during the mid to late afternoon hours today, with a brief period of low MVFR ceilings of 1,000-1,500 feet possible after 20Z at the northeast FL terminals. However, IFR ceilings will likely redevelop at the regional terminals towards 05Z tonight. Northerly surface winds sustained at 10-15 knots early this morning at the SGJ and SSI coastal terminals will shift to northeasterly before noon, with speeds at the inland terminals increasing to around 10 knots by early this afternoon. Surface winds will then gradually veer to easterly towards sunset, with gradually diminishing speeds forecast this evening and overnight. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 346 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Overnight surface analysis depicts strong high pressure (1035 millibars) centered over New England, with this feature wedging down the spine of the Appalachians into the southeastern states. Meanwhile, a stubborn coastal trough remains situated over our local near shore Atlantic waters, with this feature generating widely scattered showers, mainly offshore. Otherwise, low pressure (1006 millibars) was organizing over the Ozarks along a frontal boundary that extends southward across the lower Mississippi Valley and coastal Texas. Aloft...ridging was in place along the U.S. eastern seaboard, downstream of a potent shortwave trough that was lifting north-northeastward from the lower Mississippi Valley towards the Tennessee Valley, ahead of a broad longwave trough that was digging from the Rockies through the southern Plains states. Low stratus ceilings were blanketing our entire region due to the surface wedge in place over the southeastern states, with pockets of locally dense fog and drizzle developing across our region as well. Temperatures and dewpoints at 08Z ranged from 45-50 degrees across inland southeast GA to the 50s elsewhere. && .NEAR TERM... (through Tonight) Issued at 346 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 The wedge of high pressure extending from New England into the southeastern states will begin to break down this afternoon as the surface ridge shifts offshore of the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts. This will allow a stubborn coastal trough that has been stuck over our near shore Atlantic waters to morph into a warm front later today, with strengthening isentropic lift / overrunning along this feature developing showers and even some isolated thunderstorms over our local waters early this morning, with this activity likely brushing the northeast FL coast after sunrise and expanding in coverage somewhat towards the I-95 corridor by early afternoon. A few showers could extend as far west as the U.S. Highway 301 corridor in north central and northeast FL through mid-afternoon before activity lifts northward across mainly coastal southeast GA during the late afternoon and early evening hours tonight. Meanwhile, southwesterly flow aloft will advect weak shortwave energy across our area this afternoon as a potent shortwave trough accelerates north-northeastward across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Multi-layered cloudiness will again remain abundant across our area today, with a few breaks in the lower stratus possible this afternoon across north central FL and the Suwannee Valley as warm frontogenesis occurs over this area during the afternoon hours, where highs should climb into the 70s. Model soundings indicate some meager ML CAPE values of around 500 j/kg developing this warm sector this afternoon, so an isolated, low-topped thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for locations along and east of U.S. Highway 301. Thick stratus, with locally dense fog and patches of drizzle, are expected to persist through most of the morning hours, especially at coastal locations and for areas along and north of I-10 into southeast GA, where lower stratus will likely prevail into the afternoon hours, which will keep highs in the low to mid 60s. Onshore winds, showers, and persistent low stratus cloud cover should keep coastal highs in the low to mid 60s, except upper 60s for locations south of St. Augustine this afternoon. An unseasonably warm and humid air mass will then advect into our region in the wake of the lifting warm front overnight, with low stratus ceilings and potentially dense fog redeveloping overnight once shower activity exits coastal southeast GA early in the evening. Temperatures will largely remain steady in the 60-65 degree range overnight at most locations. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 346 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Saturday, a warm front will lift north of area as high pressure shifts away from the Mid Atlantic coast. Southerly flow above the surface will increase moisture levels and support isolated to scattered showers under mostly cloudy skies with light SE winds generally 5-10 mph. Highs will be above normal in the mid 70s for SE GA and the upper 70s over NE FL with cooler highs around 70 at the SE GA coast and low 70s at the NE FL coast in the SE onshore flow. Areas of fog Saturday morning will lift by mid morning. Saturday night, a mid/upper level trough digging into the southern plains will pivot towards the TN valley. This feature will support a surface cold front that will develop and move through the lower MS river valley. Showers will increase in coverage late Saturday night from the west with winds becoming southerly. An isolated thunderstorm is possible west of I-75 and US-441 through sunrise. Sunday, the mid/upper level trough will take on a negative tilt as a short wave moves through the base of the trough from the TN valley into the OH valley in the morning and then the eastern great lakes by the afternoon. This will push the surface cold through the area with SW flow aloft over southerly low level winds creating good surface convergence while diffluent flow in the jet stream level winds help support strong lift over the region. Warm and moist airmass from the Gulf will help support unstable low level airmass (CAPE over 1000 J/kg) with sufficient 0-6km shear 30-40 knots for a marginal threat of isolated severe thunderstorms for wind gusts 40-60 mph. A isolated tornado risk cannot be ruled out due to the strong veering low level winds. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s. Sunday night, showers associated with the cold frontal boundary will move off the coast after midnight with clouds remaining partly cloudy. Decreasing winds will turn westerly towards sunrise. Lows will be in the 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday Night) Issued at 346 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Monday, zonal flow in the mid levels will spread eastward along the Gulf coast as the trough lifts into the NE states. Weak high pressure at the surface will briefly build in over the area with NW winds turning southerly by later in the afternoon as the high quickly shifts off the SE US coast. Highs will be about 5 degrees above normal in the low 70s inland and mid 70s over north central FL with near normal highs along the coast into the upper 60s as a weak seabreeze develops in the afternoon. Lows will be mild in the 50s Tuesday, an upstream shortwave will migrate form the Mid MS valley towards the Mid Atlantic region. A cold front will drag through the deep south with moisture overrunning the drier airmass lingering over the area that will support isolated light showers late in the day. Southwest winds will become elevated 10-15 mph. Highs will again be above normal. Lows Tuesday morning will be 5-10 degrees above normal in the low/mid 50s. Wednesday, the cold front will clear east of the area early in the day and end showers before lunchtime. Skies will become mostly sunny as strong Canadian airmass builds in from the NW. Highs will be near normal in the mid/upper 60s with low 70s over north central FL. Lows Wednesday morning will again be 5-10 degrees above normal in the low/mid 50s. Thursday, the strong high builds southward from the upper plains into the southern plains with light northwest winds and high level clouds as shortwave trough racing from the Mid-South to the Carolina coast reinforces deep troughing over the eastern two thirds of the country. Highs will remain below normal in the upper 50s to low 60s over SE GA and the lower 60s over NE FL. Lows Thursday morning will fall a little below normal in the lower 40s to mid/upper 40s along the coast. By Friday morning, lows will fall to around 10 degrees below normal in the low/mid 30s inland that may support a potential frost with lows moderated a bit at the coast to the upper 30s/low 40s. && .MARINE... Issued at 346 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Strong high pressure centered over New England will continue to wedge down the southeastern seaboard through tonight, keeping Small Craft Advisory conditions in place through this evening for the offshore waters, where seas of 6-8 feet will prevail today. Small Craft will need to Exercise Caution if venturing into the near shore waters, where seas of 4-6 feet will prevail through tonight. Meanwhile, a stubborn coastal trough situated over our near shore waters will lift northward as a warm front this afternoon and evening. Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will increase in coverage this morning over the northeast Florida waters, with this activity shifting northward over the Georgia waters this afternoon and evening as the warm front lifts northward. Winds and seas will briefly diminish on Saturday, with southeasterly winds then strengthening and shifting to southerly by late Saturday night and Sunday as low pressure develops and intensifies over the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Small Craft Advisory level seas of 5-7 feet may redevelop offshore by late Saturday night or early Sunday. Seas of 3-5 feet are expected throughout the weekend near shore. This storm system will push a cold front eastward across our local waters on Sunday night, with showers and a few thunderstorms expected ahead of this front from Saturday night through Sunday evening. Weak high pressure will then briefly build over our local waters on Monday, with this feature then shifting offshore ahead of the next cold front that is slated to cross our local waters on Tuesday night. Rip Currents: Gusty northerly winds this morning will become onshore this afternoon, with breakers of 4-5 feet at the northeast FL beaches and 3-4 feet at the southeast GA beaches resulting in a high rip current risk at all area beaches today. Breakers will subside slightly on Saturday, with a persistent onshore breeze likely resulting in a higher end moderate rip current risk at area beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 64 60 75 62 / 20 10 30 60 SSI 62 60 70 60 / 50 20 30 50 JAX 69 61 75 62 / 40 10 30 50 SGJ 67 64 74 62 / 50 10 30 40 GNV 74 62 77 62 / 20 10 30 50 OCF 76 63 79 63 / 20 20 20 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133- 138. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ470-472- 474. && $$ |
| #1213298 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:45 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 436 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 435 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Showers/thunderstorms have moved well offshore overnight, and with a more stable air mass and lighter winds in place, look for patchy fog to become more widespread through the early morning hours. Some loc- ations could see patchy dense fog at times through sunrise. And then by mid to late morning, visibilities will be much improved over much of the CWA. Clearing skies should help with highs reaching the lower to mid 70s this afternoon. The front responsible for yesterday`s storms should be stalling just off the coast today...but is progged to begin moving back north into SE TX overnight tonight as a warm front. This return of warmer/moist air will be favorable for the return of fog, with dense fog likely a bit more widespread. Isolated streamer showers could develop as well. Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s north...lower and mid 60s along the coast. And so by early tomorrow, with the warm/moist air mass in place over the region (per the return of S/SE winds at the low levels), we will be seeing the next surface low forming around the TX Panhandle. This system is then going to track across the the Southern Plains through the day on Sat. Current hi-res models seem to be focusing the better organized activity across our eastern to northeastern CWA during the afternoon and evening tomorrow. Strengthening deep-layer shear along with increasing instability does seem to indicate that some stronger storm development will be possible should skies clear. So, per SPC`s latest day 2, a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) is now in place for parts of our far E/NE CWA...a Marginal Risk (1/5) for areas east of a Col- lege Station to Sealy to Freeport line. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary severe weather threats, but isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. 41 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 435 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 We should see finally see a reprieve from the active weather, thunderstorm-wise, Sunday and through the week. Things will remain fairly warm Sun through Monday night with lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s. A cold front will be moving into northern parts of the region Tuesday morning and off the coast during the afternoon hours. This front should knock temperatures down to near seasonable norms through the end of the work week with lows in the 30s & 40s and highs in the upper 50s-low 60s. 47 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1112 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Light winds, clearing skies, and lingering soil moisture from Thursday`s rainfall will lead to the development of patchy, dense fog across the area over the next few hours that will persist into the early to mid morning hours. CXO and LBX have already gone down to IFR and LIFR due to reduced visibility with other terminals also reporting some mist and light fog. Conditions will only continue to get more favorable for fog over the next few hours, so expect continued degradation in flight categories. The fog is expected to dissipate by 14-15z with VFR conditions returning through the remainder of the afternoon and evening with light southwest to southerly winds. Low CIGs (1500-2500ft) and patchy, potentially dense, fog will return Friday night into Saturday morning. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 435 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Weak frontal boundary has pushed off the upper Texas coastline, but will be stalling and washing out. Caution flags will be in place til mid morning with some 6ft seas lingering well offshore. A warm front will track back north tonight. Look for areas of fog to develop, some dense, as this occurs. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible, mainly east of Freeport by Saturday morning with the return of Gulf moisture. Patchy sea fog may redevelop for a short time period early Saturday evening before another front pushes off the coast. Onshore flow resumes Monday followed by a stronger front Tuesday afternoon. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 72 57 77 49 / 0 10 30 0 Houston (IAH) 74 62 76 53 / 0 20 40 10 Galveston (GLS) 70 63 72 55 / 0 20 50 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ370-375. && $$ |
| #1213297 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:33 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 414 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 312 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Key Messages: * Unseasonably warm, near record-breaking temperatures are expected to continue through Saturday * Dry conditions are expected to continue with favorable marine/coastal conditions (light to moderate winds and low seas/rip current risk) Quiescent weather conditions with unseasonably warm, near record- breaking temperatures will be the theme through the short-term forecast period. During this timeframe, it will feel more like late October rather than late December as anomalously strong mid-upper level 500mb ridging centered over southern California and extending into the southern Plains will remain in place. NAEFS continue to indicate 850 mb to 925 mb (near sfc) temperatures being +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal. With the normal high and low temperatures at Brownsville/South Padre Island International Airport (KBRO) being 73F and 53F degrees, respectively, forecast highs and lows for today and Saturday will be on the order of 10-15+ degrees above climatology. We start off the short-term forecast period this morning, where I have patchy fog headlines out for mainly the eastern half of the local forecast area. The NBM via DESI and MOS guidances indicate a medium chance (30-60%) of mist/fog formation overnight into this morning. Additionally, BUFKIT soundings also indicated the likelihood of low stratus around. Furthermore, the latest sfc analysis from LAPS/MSAS revealed copious amounts of low level moisture trapped beneath a nearby weak frontal boundary draped over eastern one-third of the forecast area (roughly from Hidalgo to Kenedy County). GOES-East Nighttime Fog, Infrared, and Microphysics channels reveal mainly low stratus over the mid-lower Rio Grande Valley with mist. Any mist/fog/low stratus should erode in time through the morning. Continued warm air advection (WAA) amid light southerly winds will support temperatures climbing into the mid 80s this afternoon under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. Again, these temperatures are that of late October (unseasonably warm) and will get to near record levels today. The all-time record high on this day (Friday, December 27) for Brownsville/South Padre Island International Airport (KBRO) is 87F degrees set back in 1968. For tonight, overnight low temperatures will remain well above average for late December with values mainly in the 60s (near 70F degrees around Brownsville). The warmth continues on Saturday with continued warm air advection and southerly winds. High temperatures are once again expected to climb into the mid 80s across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Again, these values are near record levels at +1 to +2 STDEVs and 10-15+ degrees above normal. The all-time record high on for Saturday December 28 for Brownsville/South Padre Island International Airport (KBRO) is 86F degrees set back in 1921. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Thursday) Issued at 312 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 The most significant event during this portion of the total forecast will be the late Tuesday passage of a cold front. A steadily-increasing chance of rain will occur from Wednesday through Thursday, with the best chance of rain on the latter day. However, precipitation chances will generally be limited along and east of the Interstate 69C corridor. Otherwise, in advance of the Tuesday frontal passage, a nearly zonal 500 mb flow over the BRO CWFA will produce generally dry weather conditions. Temperature-wise, well above normal daytime highs and overnight lows will prevail across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley in advance of the Tuesday cold front. The passage of this boundary will then bring values to more near normal levels for Tuesday night through Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1106 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Latest satellite imagery and surface observations indicate some low stratus across portions of the Rio Grande Valley. A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions are expected for the next several hours as low clouds and patchy fog develops across the area. Ample moisture and very light winds are expected to lead to low ceilings and patchy to areas of fog with reduce visibilities. Some short term models are suggesting some fog with the possibility of IFR/LIFR conditions developing overnight to around sunrise. However, the SREF is indicating mainly low ceilings through much of the period. Will lean towards a blend of the previous forecast, NBM probabilities and current guidance. Conditions will gradually improve late Friday morning with VFR conditions returning by the afternoon. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 312 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Light to moderate southerly winds and low seas will prevail through Saturday. The risk for rip currents will be low as well. (Saturday Night through Thursday) The most adverse marine conditions, featuring possibly Small Craft Advisory winds and/or seas, is anticipated for Wednesday night through Thursday due to the passage of a cold front. Outside of this time period, light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas will occur due to a modest pressure gradient and the possible passage of a weak cold front. However, brief Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions cannot be entirely ruled out. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 84 70 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 86 66 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 88 69 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 86 66 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 71 78 66 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 83 68 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ |
| #1213296 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:30 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 425 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Saturday Night) Issued at 424 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 An active weather pattern is anticipated through the period. An upper trof over the central states takes on a negative tilt while lifting off towards the Great Lakes region through tonight. Another upper trof quick on the heels of the first trof evolves over the southern/central Plains late tonight into Saturday morning then takes on a slight negative tilt while progressing into the southeastern states Saturday night. A warm front currently extends from central Mississippi down into the Alabama and western Florida panhandle coastal waters and is expected to lift northward through the forecast area today. MLCAPE values increase to around 1000 J/kg over southeast Mississippi this afternoon, tapering to lower values further to the east due to less favorable low level lapse rates. For tonight, MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg are expected over the western portions of the area and could spread eastward overnight, but this depends on how much improvement there is in the low level lapse rates. A 25-40 knot 850 mb jet this afternoon diminishes to 20- 25 knots tonight, resulting in 0-3 km helicity values of 200-300 m2/s2 today dropping off to 100-150 m2/s2. As the first upper trof brushes past the forecast region along with a series of shortwaves, this appears to favor two rounds of showers and storms, although there is uncertainty with just how much forcing will be available and as a result just how much convection develops. That said, am anticipating a first round of storms to develop to the west and advance mainly across the western and central portions of the area through the day into the early evening hours. A second round of showers and storms is then anticipated to advance across much of the area from late afternoon into the late night hours. Given the environment, there is the potential for some strong to severe storms, tempered by uncertainty with the strength of the forcing and also by how quickly low level lapse rates can improve over the central and eastern portions of the area. The Storm Prediction Center currently has a Marginal Risk of severe storms for the entire area. A surface low is expected to develop over the southern Plains by Saturday morning then advance to the Mississippi/Ohio River confluence by early Saturday evening before lifting into the interior eastern states Saturday night. The surface low is expected to bring a cold front into the western portion of the forecast area by late Saturday night. As an upper trof advances into the region along with a series of shortwaves and the approach of the cold front, convection is expected to develop across the area by Saturday afternoon, with a broken squall line progressing across the area starting as early as late Saturday afternoon and continuing into early Sunday morning. An 850 mb jet increases to 25-40 knots Saturday afternoon then to 30-50 knots Saturday evening before diminishing somewhat during the late night hours, providing for plenty of favorable shear. MLCAPE values increase to 1000-1500 J/kg over the western half of the area by Saturday afternoon (with lower values further east), then are expected to spread into much of the remaining eastern portion overnight. The best deep layer forcing/instability/shear will be over southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama where the Storm Prediction Center has an Enhanced Risk of severe storms. A Slight Risk of severe storms exists for much of the remainder of the area except for the far eastern and coastal areas where less favorable instability is anticipated. Along with the potential for severe weather through the period, the southerly flow of warm and moist air over cool near shore waters will likely lead to sea fog forming especially over Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound this afternoon, with fog spreading inland tonight. Confidence in visibilities dropping to 1 nm or less over the marine portion was not quite high enough to issue a Dense Fog Advisory at this point so will defer to the next shift. It`s possible that a Dense Fog Advisory could also become necessary for much of the land portion of the area tonight. A High Risk of rip currents is expected through Saturday night. /29 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 424 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 The area quickly dries out through the day on Sunday as a cold front sweeps across the area. Prior to the cold front, a broken line of storms will exit the area from west to east throughout the morning hours. Any strong to severe storms should be out of the area by 7- 8am on Sunday with some showers and storms lingering through mid- morning for locations generally east of the I-65 corridor. This is not a very potent cold front as temperatures only fall into the 40s and 50s Sunday night into Monday morning. A surface high quickly builds into the region on the backside of the rain and the area dries out Sunday afternoon through Monday. The surface high slides out of the area (just as fast as it slid in here) and onshore flow becomes established again by Monday afternoon. Isolated showers are expected on Tuesday as a subtle, fast-moving shortwave slides into the Midwest. Moisture return looks to be meager on Tuesday as another cold front slides into the area. We are not anticipating any severe weather ahead of this front, however, temperatures will tumble in the wake of the front. While it will be chilly Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the bigger push of cold air will occur the following three nights. Temperatures will fall below freezing across interior areas Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Lows will plunge into the upper 20s to low 30s for all locations north of I-10 Thursday night into Friday morning. The coldest night of the week looks to be Friday night into Saturday where temperatures plummet into the mid to upper 20s across inland locations with temperatures hovering just above freezing at the beaches. Highs on Thursday and Friday will struggle in the cold air advection regime with temperatures hovering in the 50s both days. 07/mb && .MARINE... Issued at 424 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 A Small Craft Advisory for the open Gulf waters has been extended until 15Z this morning to allow sufficient time for southeasterly winds to diminish. Small craft should otherwise exercise caution until early afternoon for the open Gulf waters. Sea fog is expected to develop especially over Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound this afternoon and continue through at least much of Saturday afternoon. A Dense Fog Advisory may become necessary. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 73 62 74 61 73 47 71 56 / 80 50 80 90 20 0 0 20 Pensacola 71 64 73 63 73 52 70 60 / 70 60 70 90 40 0 0 20 Destin 71 64 74 66 75 55 71 62 / 40 50 60 90 50 10 0 20 Evergreen 70 59 74 60 73 45 71 52 / 60 60 70 90 30 0 0 20 Waynesboro 73 61 73 57 70 45 71 53 / 80 40 80 90 10 0 0 20 Camden 66 59 72 59 70 45 70 52 / 70 70 80 90 20 0 0 20 Crestview 73 60 76 61 77 47 73 52 / 40 50 60 90 50 0 0 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ650-655- 670-675. && $$ |
| #1213294 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:18 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 504 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 500 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 KBYX radar overnight has detected primarily light, shallow showers mostly staying over the water. Although the 00z sounding revealed a moist profile with precipitable water values just above the climatology 90 percentile for day (1.61 inches), in the lower levels below 700 mb, dry air is still present causing limited shower development. For today, moisture is expected to infiltrate the forecast area allowing for more shower activity. As convective conditions improve and the profile becomes more unstable, lightning can not be ruled out for this afternoon and tonight. Winds across the Reef are currently being observed at near 15 knots and are expected to increase today as a sub-tropical jet sags southward and interacts with a shortwave moving across South Florida. Above normal rain chances are expected to stick around through the weekend before dropping off rapidly early next week as high pressure over the North Atlantic provides ridging across the Florida Peninsula. This high will allow for winds to slacken to light to gentle by Monday. In the long range, guidance is indicating another cold front later into the week or possibly into next weekend, stay tuned. && .MARINE... Issued at 500 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Small Craft should exercise caution in the Straits of Florida and for increasing winds for the Hawk Channel and deep Gulf waters. From synopsis, a surge of moisture will bring unsettled weather with the greatest likelihood of rain and thunderstorms today through Saturday. Hazards to mariners may include, but are not limited to, occasional lightning strikes, gusty and erratic winds, and reduced visibility from heavy downpours. While these hazards will be possible anywhere across the Keys waters, the highest likelihood is across portions of the Straits of Florida. Conditions are expected to begin to improve Sunday. With high pressure over the western North Atlantic ridging across the Florida Peninsula early next week, east to southeast winds are expected to decrease, becoming light to gentle by Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 500 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 A wet weather pattern is taking shape for the area this morning. Bouts of sub VFR conditions will be possible through the day VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals today. Surface wind will be light to gentle out of the east. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1983, the daily record low temperature of 40 F was recorded in Marathon. Marathon temperature records date back to 1950. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1213293 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 435 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures increase through Sunday with mild conditions expected everywhere by Sunday. Light rain is possible mainly across the Piedmont today. Rain chances increase through the weekend with widespread showers expected on Sunday. A few embedded storms are also possible Sunday. Mild and unsettled weather continues through the end of 2024 with cooler conditions returning in 2025. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM EST Friday... - Cool with increasing clouds through the day. - Light rain or drizzle is possible across the Piedmont this afternoon into tonight. - Fog is possible tonight across mainly the Piedmont. Early morning surface analysis depicts high pressure over the area (centered over interior New England) with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temps as of 330 AM ranged from the upper 20s to lower 30s inland with upper 30s to around 40F along the coast. Cloud cover increases in coverage today as the high slowly moves offshore. Given the high position, CAD is expected today with light NE winds and highs in the mid 40s across the Piedmont and upper 50s to near 60F across SE VA/NE NC. Light rain/drizzle is possible across the Piedmont this afternoon into tonight as a series of shortwaves move towards the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes, creating isentropic ascent over the surface wedge of cooler air in place. Rain chances increase late tonight with PoPs of 60-75% across portions of the Piedmont. However, rainfall totals will generally be light with generally <0.1" except around 0.1" across the far NW Piedmont. Clouds keep temps from cooling much overnight with lows in the upper 30s NW to upper 40s SE expected. Additionally, given high RH overnight and a sharp temperature inversion, widespread fog will also be possible overnight with the best chance across the Piedmont (where the inversion is the strongest). Locally dense fog is possible into Sat morning. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 420 AM EST Friday... Key Message: - Fog is possible across the Piedmont Saturday morning. - Light rain is likely Saturday mainly along and west of I-95. - Widespread rain is likely on Sunday with a few embedded storms possible. A few strong to severe storms are possible. - Mild temperatures return Saturday east of I-95 and Sunday across the entire area. High pressure continues to move offshore Sat with warm front gradually lifting N across the FA through the day. CAD will be in place and will likely be slow to erode across the Piedmont (as is often the case this time of year). As such, have leaned heavily towards the NAM with respect to temperatures Sat given that most other model guidance appears too fast with the erosion of the CAD. This will allow for quite a range of temperatures across the FA with highs Sat in the mid 40s NW and upper 60s to near 70F across SE VA/NE NC. The CAD finally erodes by Sat night with temps warming through the night into the upper 50s for most by sunrise Sun morning. Off and on light rain is likely through the day on Sat generally along and W of I-95 and extending NE towards Salisbury, MD. Meanwhile, portions of SE VA/ NE NC likely remain dry through the day. Rainfall totals will likely be a bit higher Sat than today with totals of around 0.2-0.3" across the Piedmont. Attention turns to a developing area of low pressure across lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley Sat. This low moves NE into the Ohio Valley and towards the Great Lakes Sun. As the low moves NE, it will push a cold front towards the local area with widespread showers and embedded storms likely along and ahead of the front. Models still show some timing discrepancies with respect to the timing of the front across the local area. However, the general timeframe is Sun afternoon into Sun evening. While CAPE remains generally low, a few hundred J/kg of CAPE is likely across the entire FA (given dew points rising to around 60F) with the highest values across the SW portion of the FA. While timing of the front and associated storms is important with respect to maximizing severe potential during the most favorable part of the day, in the cool season, high-shear low-cape (HSLC) setups are not as reliant upon favorable timing given that they are kinematically driven as opposed to thermodynamically driven. That being said, forecast soundings indicate plentiful low-level shear and SRH given a 40-50 kt low level jet. As such, a few strong to severe storms are possible along a forced line of convection along/ahead of the cold front. Given the setup, SPC has placed the SW two-thirds of the FA under a marginal risk for severe storms Sun with the main threats being damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. the far SW portion of the FA is under a slight risk for severe storms given the locally more favorable timing and slightly higher CAPE values. Showers move offshore by Sun night. Rainfall totals through Sun nigh of 0.5-1.0" across the FA are expected with lowest totals across the E portion of the FA and highest totals across the Piedmont (locally 1-1.5" is possible). Additionally, given the WAA across the FA Sun, mild temps are expected across the area with highs in the mid 60s to around 70F expected (most in the upper 60s). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 435 AM EST Friday... Key Messages: - Mild temperatures persist through New Year`s Day. - Scattered showers are possible Tuesday into Tuesday night. - Cooler and drier conditions return for the middle to latter part of the week. Mild and dry conditions are expected Mon behind the cold front given minimal CAA. Another low pressure system moves towards the Ohio Valley Tue before phasing with a developing coastal low off of the New England coast Wed. Given the track of the lows, the bulk of the rain will likely remain N of the local area. However, scattered showers are possible Tue into Tue night with the best chance across the Eastern Shore. The cold front from this system pushes through late Tue night into early Wed, ushering in cooler and drier air for the beginning of 2025. Highs are expected to range from the low-mid 60s Mon, upper 50s N to upper 60s S Tue (most in the mid 60s), mid- upper 50s Wed, lower 40s NW to around 50F SE Thu, and upper 30s NW to low-mid 40s SE Fri. The next chance for below freezing temps arrives Wed night with temps in the lower 30s inland (mid-upper 30s along the coast). Widespread temps in the 20s arrive Thu night. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1245 AM EST Friday... Stratocu have developed both across the Piedmont and as a marine layer pushing onshore with MVFR CIGs (~2500 ft). The clouds have already moved over SBY with ECG on the edge of the thicker cloud cover. As such, expect these clouds to push farther onshore into early this morning with MVFR CIGs reaching ECG and potentially ORF/PHF. However, confidence is lower at ORF and especially PHF and therefore have gone with a TEMPO for ORF from 9-13z. Models generally suggest that CIGs improve after sunrise to mainly VFR, however, some models (notably the RAP) suggest that the MVFR CIGs linger through the day as they gradually push inland. Otherwise, cloud cover increases through the day Fri with lowering CIGs and fog possible Fri night (highest confidence across the Piedmont). Outlook: This weekend, as high pressure moves offshore, a warm front will push north through the area bringing chances of rain Sat with rain likely on Sunday, as a cold front moves through the area. A few embedded thunderstorms are also possible Sunday. Degraded conditions are possible Friday night through Sunday between low CIGs, fog, and rain. Dry/VFR conditions return Mon, as high pressure builds in from the W. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EST Friday... Key Messages: - Relatively benign conditions continue through Saturday. - SCA conditions are likely across the marine area Sunday with increasing southerly winds. High pressure remains centered N/NE of the local marine area early this morning, bringing a N-NE wind of 10-15 kt. Seas are 2-3 ft N and 3-4 S, with waves 1-2 ft in the Bay, rivers, and sound. The sfc high is forecast to settle a bit S into the region later today, allowing the pressure gradient to weaken, with winds diminishing to 5-10 kt and becoming E to SE tonight, as a warm front lifts N through the area. Winds will only average 5-10 kt tonight through midday Saturday, with dew pts expected to rise well above sfc water temperature. This setup may lead to marine fog. S winds eventually increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late Saturday and Sat night which would tend to break up the fog during that timeframe. Winds continue to increase to 15-25 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt Sun into Sun night ahead of an approaching low pressure system and associated cold front. It will be a very warm airmass so mixing over the water will be limited outside of convection. There is still a strong enough pressure gradient and a strong low level jet that confidence is high at seeing SCAs, along with seas building to 5-7 ft. The chc for Gales is very low however. Widespread showers with embedded storms move across the local waters Sun into Sun evening ahead of and along the aforementioned cold front and locally that could bring down the stronger winds with 925mb winds 50 kt+ (situation that would be handled w/ SMWs). Winds become W behind the cold front Mon. Will note that a brief period of gusty W winds is possible behind the cold front, but CAA is weak and the pressure gradient quickly looks to relax Min aftn/Mon night. High pressure builds in early next week with an unsettled pattern again developing around New Year`s Day or beyond. A lot of uncertainty at this range, but the overall theme would be for stronger CAA and W-NW winds late next week, with at least SCAs likely. Waves and seas were generally 1-2 ft and 2-4 ft (2-3 ft N and 3-4 ft across the NC coastal waters) respectively this afternoon. Waves and seas build to 3-4 ft and 4-6 ft respectively by Sun with seas potentially remaining elevated through Mon. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1213292 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 440 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 430 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 - Warm with a few showers through Saturday. The highest chance (30-40%) for rain is along the coast. - Poor to hazardous beach and boating conditions will exist today. - Our next cold front arrives Sunday night with a 40 to 50% chance of showers and a few lightning storms. - The forecast is dry and pleasant for New Year`s Eve plans, but the risk for cold weather impacts increases in early January. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Current...Isolated to scattered showers continue to develop across the local Atlantic waters this morning. Some showers have been able to move onshore, though they have remained rather light thus far. In addition to the showers, cloud coverage remains high this morning across east central Florida thanks to a stratus deck that has set up across the area. In some spots, the stratus has sunk closer to the ground, resulting in fog and visibility reductions down to a mile or less. If you`re out driving this morning and encounter these lower visibilities, be sure to slow down, use only low beam headlights, and leave plenty of following distance between vehicles. The stratus should lift through the morning, with visibilities improving across east central Florida near to shortly after sunrise. Today-Tonight...Mid-level ridging is forecast to slide slightly eastward across the Florida peninsula today, with the associated surface high over the northeastern U.S. responding by slowly shifting eastward out over the Atlantic. Locally, winds becoming more onshore today as the high moves eastward, helping to advect moisture towards the peninsula. As a result, isolated to scattered showers are forecast to continue across the local Atlantic waters, with the easterly flow helping some activity move onshore. The highest chances across east central Florida are confined primarily along the immediate coast (30-40%), though there is a 20-30% chance of showers making it as far inland as the Orlando metro. Overall, the environment looks unfavorable for any storm development, but did decide to keep at least a 10% chance of thunder in association with any activity for today. Activity is forecast to gradually diminish into the overnight hours across the peninsula, though shower development across the local Atlantic waters is still expected. There is a low chance for activity to continue across the Treasure Coast overnight. Despite the higher cloud coverage, temperatures are still forecast to warm into the mid 70s to low 80s across east central Florida, which is approximately 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Lows will also remain approximately 10 degrees above normal, with temperatures remaining in the 60s. Saturday-Sunday...The mid-level ridge will continue to slide eastward across the Atlantic on Saturday, with a trough digging southward over the central U.S. The trough is then forecast to swing northeastward towards the Mid Atlantic on Sunday. At the surface, this will translate to the surface high shifting farther eastward as a surface low develops across the Ark-La-Tex region on Saturday. The low then lifts northward towards the Ohio Valley on Sunday, dragging its weakening attendant cold front along with it. Locally, the weakening cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the Florida peninsula Sunday into Sunday night. Rain chances across the Florida peninsula on Saturday remain around 20-30% thanks to the elevated moisture, with the best chances concentrated primarily across the Treasure Coast. Winds are forecast to veer southeastward as the surface high shifts farther east across the western Atlantic. By Sunday, rain and storm chances are forecast to increase across east central Florida out ahead of the weakening cold front. Rain chances remain around 40-50% across the area, with a 20% chance of lightning storms in association with the activity. The risk for strong storms continues to look low at this time. Activity will slowly diminish into Sunday night as the front continues southeastward, with slightly drier air helping to clear out clouds. Temperatures are forecast to remain above normal across east central Florida over the weekend, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows remaining in the 60s. Monday-Thursday...Behind the front, zonal flow aloft is forecast to set up, keeping conditions relatively mild locally. Rain chances are forecast to remain below 20 percent across the peninsula from early next week into the middle of next week, with isolated shower development across the local Atlantic waters possible. Another front may move towards the peninsula around New Years` Day, though current guidance is hinting that it will pass with very little fanfare as a result of limited moisture availability. The frontal passage on Sunday will do little to help with temperatures, with highs remaining in the 70s Monday and in the upper 70s to low 80s on Tuesday. Lows generally in the mid 50s to low 60s. The second frontal passage, however, looks as though it could cool east central Florida off slightly, with highs on Wednesday in the 70s and falling into the mid 60s to low 70s on Thursday. Lows are forecast to fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s Wednesday night, with the coolest night during the forecast period on Thursday, with lows in the 40s across all of east central Florida. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Poor to hazardous boating conditions have developed across the local Atlantic waters as a result of increasing onshore flow, with seas building up to at least 8 feet across the offshore waters. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the offshore Volusia and Brevard waters. Small craft are encouraged to exercise caution across the nearshore Volusia and Brevard waters and offshore Treasure Coast waters due to seas up to 6 feet and east-southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Poor boating conditions are forecast to continue across the Gulf Stream waters into the weekend as a result of south-southeast flow keeping seas up to at least 6 feet. Conditions are forecast to improve after a front moves across the local waters Sunday night, with winds Monday becoming light and variable around 5 to 10 knots. Seas fall to 2 to 4 feet on Monday, with boating conditions remaining generally good into the middle of next week. Isolated to scattered showers are forecast to continue across the local Atlantic waters today into Saturday, with the best rain chances forecast on Sunday out ahead of a cold front. Isolated storms cannot be ruled out on Sunday. Behind the cold front, shower chances are forecast to diminish, though isolated shower activity cannot be fully ruled out across the offshore waters. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 107 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Prevailing MVFR/IFR CIGs at all terminals overnight in stratus. VIS reductions included at LEE/VRB/FPR/SUA where fog has begun to develop. Stratus and fog gradually lift after sunrise becoming VFR into late morning and through the afternoon. Rounds of VCSH forecast at coastal terminals through the TAF period. TEMPOs at TIX/MLB at the top of the 06Z TAF package for VIS reductions in showers. VCSH expanding to most interior terminals around 17Z. North-northeast winds around 5-7 kts tonight veer east around 8-10 kts by the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 63 77 64 / 30 20 20 30 MCO 79 64 79 65 / 20 20 20 30 MLB 77 65 77 66 / 30 20 20 30 VRB 79 66 79 67 / 30 30 30 30 LEE 78 63 79 64 / 20 10 20 30 SFB 78 63 79 64 / 30 20 20 30 ORL 79 64 80 65 / 20 20 20 30 FPR 79 66 79 66 / 30 30 30 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ570-572. && $$ |
| #1213291 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:30 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 422 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures increase through Sunday with mild conditions expected everywhere by Sunday. Light rain is possible mainly across the Piedmont today. Rain chances increase through the weekend with widespread showers expected on Sunday. A few embedded storms are also possible Sunday. Mild and unsettled weather continues through the end of 2024 with cooler conditions returning in 2025. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM EST Friday... - Cool with increasing clouds through the day. - Light rain or drizzle is possible across the Piedmont this afternoon into tonight. - Fog is possible tonight across mainly the Piedmont. Early morning surface analysis depicts high pressure over the area (centered over interior New England) with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temps as of 330 AM ranged from the upper 20s to lower 30s inland with upper 30s to around 40F along the coast. Cloud cover increases in coverage today as the high slowly moves offshore. Given the high position, CAD is expected today with light NE winds and highs in the mid 40s across the Piedmont and upper 50s to near 60F across SE VA/NE NC. Light rain/drizzle is possible across the Piedmont this afternoon into tonight as a series of shortwaves move towards the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes, creating isentropic ascent over the surface wedge of cooler air in place. Rain chances increase late tonight with PoPs of 60-75% across portions of the Piedmont. However, rainfall totals will generally be light with generally <0.1" except around 0.1" across the far NW Piedmont. Clouds keep temps from cooling much overnight with lows in the upper 30s NW to upper 40s SE expected. Additionally, given high RH overnight and a sharp temperature inversion, widespread fog will also be possible overnight with the best chance across the Piedmont (where the inversion is the strongest). Locally dense fog is possible into Sat morning. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 420 AM EST Friday... Key Message: - Fog is possible across the Piedmont Saturday morning. - Light rain is likely Saturday mainly along and west of I-95. - Widespread rain is likely on Sunday with a few embedded storms possible. A few strong to severe storms are possible. - Mild temperatures return Saturday east of I-95 and Sunday across the entire area. High pressure continues to move offshore Sat with warm front gradually lifting N across the FA through the day. CAD will be in place and will likely be slow to erode across the Piedmont (as is often the case this time of year). As such, have leaned heavily towards the NAM with respect to temperatures Sat given that most other model guidance appears too fast with the erosion of the CAD. This will allow for quite a range of temperatures across the FA with highs Sat in the mid 40s NW and upper 60s to near 70F across SE VA/NE NC. The CAD finally erodes by Sat night with temps warming through the night into the upper 50s for most by sunrise Sun morning. Off and on light rain is likely through the day on Sat generally along and W of I-95 and extending NE towards Salisbury, MD. Meanwhile, portions of SE VA/ NE NC likely remain dry through the day. Rainfall totals will likely be a bit higher Sat than today with totals of around 0.2-0.3" across the Piedmont. Attention turns to a developing area of low pressure across lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley Sat. This low moves NE into the Ohio Valley and towards the Great Lakes Sun. As the low moves NE, it will push a cold front towards the local area with widespread showers and embedded storms likely along and ahead of the front. Models still show some timing discrepancies with respect to the timing of the front across the local area. However, the general timeframe is Sun afternoon into Sun evening. While CAPE remains generally low, a few hundred J/kg of CAPE is likely across the entire FA (given dew points rising to around 60F) with the highest values across the SW portion of the FA. While timing of the front and associated storms is important with respect to maximizing severe potential during the most favorable part of the day, in the cool season, high-shear low-cape (HSLC) setups are not as reliant upon favorable timing given that they are kinematically driven as opposed to thermodynamically driven. That being said, forecast soundings indicate plentiful low-level shear and SRH given a 40-50 kt low level jet. As such, a few strong to severe storms are possible along a forced line of convection along/ahead of the cold front. Given the setup, SPC has placed the SW two-thirds of the FA under a marginal risk for severe storms Sun with the main threats being damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. the far SW portion of the FA is under a slight risk for severe storms given the locally more favorable timing and slightly higher CAPE values. Showers move offshore by Sun night. Rainfall totals through Sun nigh of 0.5-1.0" across the FA are expected with lowest totals across the E portion of the FA and highest totals across the Piedmont (locally 1-1.5" is possible). Additionally, given the WAA across the FA Sun, mild temps are expected across the area with highs in the mid 60s to around 70F expected (most in the upper 60s). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 245 PM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Milder temperatures are expected through at least Tuesday. - A cold front will bring the chance for rain showers from later Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Dry weather and cooler temperatures return for Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Milder temps are expected for Mon and Tue. Dry weather will prevail for Mon aftn (behind an exiting front) into early Tue aftn, before another cold front approaches and pushes across the area and off the coast later Tue aftn through Wed morning. That front will bring the chance for rain showers. Dry weather and cooler temps will return for Wed aftn through Thu. Highs will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s Mon and Tue, range through the 50s Wed, and in the mid 40s to lower 50s Thu. Lows will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s Mon night, range through the 40s Tue night, and mainly in the lower to mid 30s Wed night. This is my (Timothy Gingrich) last official discussion for the NWS Wakefield, as I will be retiring as of Saturday, December 28th after 35 years as a forecaster in the NWS. Thank you to all my colleagues and co-workers for their shared knowledge, help, and friendship throughout my career. You all have made my experience enjoyable and bearable in some tough times, both professionally and personally. Thank you again. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1245 AM EST Friday... Stratocu have developed both across the Piedmont and as a marine layer pushing onshore with MVFR CIGs (~2500 ft). The clouds have already moved over SBY with ECG on the edge of the thicker cloud cover. As such, expect these clouds to push farther onshore into early this morning with MVFR CIGs reaching ECG and potentially ORF/PHF. However, confidence is lower at ORF and especially PHF and therefore have gone with a TEMPO for ORF from 9-13z. Models generally suggest that CIGs improve after sunrise to mainly VFR, however, some models (notably the RAP) suggest that the MVFR CIGs linger through the day as they gradually push inland. Otherwise, cloud cover increases through the day Fri with lowering CIGs and fog possible Fri night (highest confidence across the Piedmont). Outlook: This weekend, as high pressure moves offshore, a warm front will push north through the area bringing chances of rain Sat with rain likely on Sunday, as a cold front moves through the area. A few embedded thunderstorms are also possible Sunday. Degraded conditions are possible Friday night through Sunday between low CIGs, fog, and rain. Dry/VFR conditions return Mon, as high pressure builds in from the W. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EST Friday... Key Messages: - Relatively benign conditions continue through Saturday. - SCA conditions are likely across the marine area Sunday with increasing southerly winds. High pressure remains centered N/NE of the local marine area early this morning, bringing a N-NE wind of 10-15 kt. Seas are 2-3 ft N and 3-4 S, with waves 1-2 ft in the Bay, rivers, and sound. The sfc high is forecast to settle a bit S into the region later today, allowing the pressure gradient to weaken, with winds diminishing to 5-10 kt and becoming E to SE tonight, as a warm front lifts N through the area. Winds will only average 5-10 kt tonight through midday Saturday, with dew pts expected to rise well above sfc water temperature. This setup may lead to marine fog. S winds eventually increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late Saturday and Sat night which would tend to break up the fog during that timeframe. Winds continue to increase to 15-25 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt Sun into Sun night ahead of an approaching low pressure system and associated cold front. It will be a very warm airmass so mixing over the water will be limited outside of convection. There is still a strong enough pressure gradient and a strong low level jet that confidence is high at seeing SCAs, along with seas building to 5-7 ft. The chc for Gales is very low however. Widespread showers with embedded storms move across the local waters Sun into Sun evening ahead of and along the aforementioned cold front and locally that could bring down the stronger winds with 925mb winds 50 kt+ (situation that would be handled w/ SMWs). Winds become W behind the cold front Mon. Will note that a brief period of gusty W winds is possible behind the cold front, but CAA is weak and the pressure gradient quickly looks to relax Min aftn/Mon night. High pressure builds in early next week with an unsettled pattern again developing around New Year`s Day or beyond. A lot of uncertainty at this range, but the overall theme would be for stronger CAA and W-NW winds late next week, with at least SCAs likely. Waves and seas were generally 1-2 ft and 2-4 ft (2-3 ft N and 3-4 ft across the NC coastal waters) respectively this afternoon. Waves and seas build to 3-4 ft and 4-6 ft respectively by Sun with seas potentially remaining elevated through Mon. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1213290 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:18 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 401 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures increase through Sunday with mild conditions expected everywhere by Sunday. Light rain is possible mainly across the Piedmont today. Rain chances increase through the weekend with widespread showers expected on Sunday. A few embedded storms are also possible Sunday. Mild and unsettled weather continues through the end of 2024 with cooler conditions returning in 2025. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM EST Friday... - Cool with increasing clouds through the day. - Light rain or drizzle is possible across the Piedmont this afternoon into tonight. - Fog is possible tonight across mainly the Piedmont. Early morning surface analysis depicts high pressure over the area (centered over interior New England) with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temps as of 330 AM ranged from the upper 20s to lower 30s inland with upper 30s to around 40F along the coast. Cloud cover increases in coverage today as the high slowly moves offshore. Given the high position, CAD is expected today with light NE winds and highs in the mid 40s across the Piedmont and upper 50s to near 60F across SE VA/NE NC. Light rain/drizzle is possible across the Piedmont this afternoon into tonight as a series of shortwaves move towards the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes, creating isentropic ascent over the surface wedge of cooler air in place. Rain chances increase late tonight with PoPs of 60-75% across portions of the Piedmont. However, rainfall totals will generally be light with generally <0.1" except around 0.1" across the far NW Piedmont. Clouds keep temps from cooling much overnight with lows in the upper 30s NW to upper 40s SE expected. Additionally, given high RH overnight and a sharp temperature inversion, widespread fog will also be possible overnight with the best chance across the Piedmont (where the inversion is the strongest). Locally dense fog is possible into Sat morning. As of 320 PM EST Thursday... Key Message: - Seasonable tonight with lows mainly in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Latest analysis shows ~1036 mb surface high pressure still in place and centered from the Saint Lawrence Valley and interior New England, ridging south into to the Mid-Atlantic and down the Eastern Seaboard. Aloft, an upper ridge is moving across the Mid-Atlantic, while a digging shortwave trough moves through the SW, setting up the next system for the area. High pressure will remain in place through Fri with a strong inversion of cool CAD/wedged air. Mid-level cloudiness has thinned, leaving high clouds across the area, clearing into the overnight. Temps overnight will be very similar to last night, with lows in the mid to upper 20s (SE VA/NE NC slightly warmer with lows in the mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM EST Thursday... Key Message: - Increasing cloud cover Fri with cloudy and cool conditions for most of the area, moderate temperatures along SE coast. - Spotty light rain and cooler conditions inland Friday night and Saturday. Mainly cloudy, with warming trend continuing along the coast. - Multiple frontal systems will pass through the area bringing chances of rain. The best chance of rain is from Sunday through Sunday night, when precipitation amounts could exceed 0.50" across much of the area. The upper level ridge will weaken and slowly move offshore on Fri, as the surface level high lingers around the NE coast allowing CAD/wedge to develop along the eastern seaboard. Recent model guidance is hinting to a stronger CAD event with the cool air lingering around the Piedmont. It`s important to note that the models do not have a good understanding on how the wedge performs and tend to under perform. This being said, have leaned towards the NAM guidance, rather than NBM, keeping high temps Fri in the mid 40s for the majority of the region and Sat in the upper 40s in the Piedmont to upper 60s in the SE VA/NE NC. As we saw with a similar, albeit stronger, CAD airmass earlier in the month, it does not take much overrunning moisture to result in persistent spotty showers and cooler than otherwise expected temps. Overnight, lows Fri will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s and lows Sat will be warmer, with lingering wedged air towards the Piedmont with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s towards the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 245 PM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Milder temperatures are expected through at least Tuesday. - A cold front will bring the chance for rain showers from later Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Dry weather and cooler temperatures return for Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Milder temps are expected for Mon and Tue. Dry weather will prevail for Mon aftn (behind an exiting front) into early Tue aftn, before another cold front approaches and pushes across the area and off the coast later Tue aftn through Wed morning. That front will bring the chance for rain showers. Dry weather and cooler temps will return for Wed aftn through Thu. Highs will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s Mon and Tue, range through the 50s Wed, and in the mid 40s to lower 50s Thu. Lows will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s Mon night, range through the 40s Tue night, and mainly in the lower to mid 30s Wed night. This is my (Timothy Gingrich) last official discussion for the NWS Wakefield, as I will be retiring as of Saturday, December 28th after 35 years as a forecaster in the NWS. Thank you to all my colleagues and co-workers for their shared knowledge, help, and friendship throughout my career. You all have made my experience enjoyable and bearable in some tough times, both professionally and personally. Thank you again. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1245 AM EST Friday... Stratocu have developed both across the Piedmont and as a marine layer pushing onshore with MVFR CIGs (~2500 ft). The clouds have already moved over SBY with ECG on the edge of the thicker cloud cover. As such, expect these clouds to push farther onshore into early this morning with MVFR CIGs reaching ECG and potentially ORF/PHF. However, confidence is lower at ORF and especially PHF and therefore have gone with a TEMPO for ORF from 9-13z. Models generally suggest that CIGs improve after sunrise to mainly VFR, however, some models (notably the RAP) suggest that the MVFR CIGs linger through the day as they gradually push inland. Otherwise, cloud cover increases through the day Fri with lowering CIGs and fog possible Fri night (highest confidence across the Piedmont). Outlook: This weekend, as high pressure moves offshore, a warm front will push north through the area bringing chances of rain Sat with rain likely on Sunday, as a cold front moves through the area. A few embedded thunderstorms are also possible Sunday. Degraded conditions are possible Friday night through Sunday between low CIGs, fog, and rain. Dry/VFR conditions return Mon, as high pressure builds in from the W. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EST Friday... Key Messages: - Relatively benign conditions continue through Saturday. - SCA conditions are likely across the marine area Sunday with increasing southerly winds. High pressure remains centered N/NE of the local marine area early this morning, bringing a N-NE wind of 10-15 kt. Seas are 2-3 ft N and 3-4 S, with waves 1-2 ft in the Bay, rivers, and sound. The sfc high is forecast to settle a bit S into the region later today, allowing the pressure gradient to weaken, with winds diminishing to 5-10 kt and becoming E to SE tonight, as a warm front lifts N through the area. Winds will only average 5-10 kt tonight through midday Saturday, with dew pts expected to rise well above sfc water temperature. This setup may lead to marine fog. S winds eventually increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late Saturday and Sat night which would tend to break up the fog during that timeframe. Winds continue to increase to 15-25 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt Sun into Sun night ahead of an approaching low pressure system and associated cold front. It will be a very warm airmass so mixing over the water will be limited outside of convection. There is still a strong enough pressure gradient and a strong low level jet that confidence is high at seeing SCAs, along with seas building to 5-7 ft. The chc for Gales is very low however. Widespread showers with embedded storms move across the local waters Sun into Sun evening ahead of and along the aforementioned cold front and locally that could bring down the stronger winds with 925mb winds 50 kt+ (situation that would be handled w/ SMWs). Winds become W behind the cold front Mon. Will note that a brief period of gusty W winds is possible behind the cold front, but CAA is weak and the pressure gradient quickly looks to relax Min aftn/Mon night. High pressure builds in early next week with an unsettled pattern again developing around New Year`s Day or beyond. A lot of uncertainty at this range, but the overall theme would be for stronger CAA and W-NW winds late next week, with at least SCAs likely. Waves and seas were generally 1-2 ft and 2-4 ft (2-3 ft N and 3-4 ft across the NC coastal waters) respectively this afternoon. Waves and seas build to 3-4 ft and 4-6 ft respectively by Sun with seas potentially remaining elevated through Mon. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1213289 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:18 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 403 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Coastal troughing will shift inland through tonight. A cold front will approach from the west Saturday, crossing the area later Sunday into Monday morning. Another cold front could impact the area Tuesday, followed by high pressure dominating mid-to-late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: Tricky forecast on tap primarily due to the inland push of a nearby coastal trough and the implications for several forecast parameters. Aloft, a ridge axis will shift east of the area this morning with a couple of shortwaves lifting northeastward into the Ohio Valley and the mid Mississippi Valley. The forecast area will be displaced from these, with primarily southwest flow across the region. At the surface, the day begins with a well established cold air damming wedge across Georgia and the Carolinas, and a coastal trough situated just off the coast. This trough will be the main feature of interest as it will be the focus for continued rainfall this morning and will have significant impacts on the temperature forecast. The main moisture and precipitation plume within the coastal trough continues to stream onshore, bringing consistent rainfall to the SC coast up through the Charleston Tri-County region. The trough is forecast to gradually lose definition and shift inland later today. Until it does, steady rainfall will continue through the morning, with decreasing coverage and rain chances this afternoon expected. The forecast features near 100 percent rain chances this morning for all or portions of Beaufort, Colleton, and the Tri-County region, diminishing to 20 percent or less by the late afternoon. Temperatures today will be exceedingly tricky to get right. Once the trough shifts inland, low-level flow will turn easterly or southeasterly and will allow for temperatures to rise. However, the timing of this inland movement will be difficult, and typically model guidance is too quick to allow this process to happen. The forecast allows for this to happen beginning in the mid to late afternoon. Therefore, most of the day will not bring much significant temperature rise until the trough passes. Also, locations further inland will be last to see this occur so confidence in the temperature forecast decreases as you progress inland. Overall, expect a tier of low 50s for areas right along the counties bordering the SC Midlands, ranging to low 60s along the coastal corridor. Tonight: The trough should completely clear the forecast area by the late evening and early morning hours, with southeast flow spreading in. A much milder night is on tap as temperatures hold steady or even rise in many areas. The forecast advertises low to mid 50s inland and upper 50s along the coast. With the passage of the trough, the area will be largely devoid of any forcing and focusing mechanism for showers overnight. However, there could still be isolated showers within the onshore flow so we do carry a 20 percent chance of showers late. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... H5 heights begin to gradually fall Saturday as upper troughing digs toward the eastern US. At the surface, weak troughing over the area will dissipate within the broader pre-frontal flow on Saturday morning, with diminishing rainfall changes after sunrise. Onshore flow/WAA prevails through the rest of the day, with temps reaching into the 70s for most despite mostly cloudy skies. The afternoon precip forecast remains somewhat uncertain, as ample moisture exists in the lower to mid levels with SBCAPE values potentially approaching 300 J/kg, but persistent subsidence aloft and lack of any significant lift look to win out with very limited coverage of showers through the afternoon. Deeper moisture arrives Saturday night with POPs beginning to trend greater accordingly. The primary band of prefrontal moisture arrives during the day Sunday, coincident with the strongest QG forcing from DPVA and height falls aloft. Expect showers across the area Sunday, with greatest coverage in the afternoon. Additionally, some stronger convective elements could develop midday into the afternoon as CAPE surges to around 1000+ J/kg, and 0-6km shear reaches around 35-40 kt. The conditional threat for organized convection, potentially in the form of a QLCS or hybrid supercell/multicell structure, requires continued monitoring, with elements like AM cloud/precip coverage factoring into the eventual character of the severe weather threat. The front will push offshore Sunday night into Monday morning, with drier, weak high pressure building in briefly from the west. Limited post-frontal CAA and increasing sunshine will keep temps above normal on Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Primary potentially-impactful feature of note in the long term is a cold front that will likely cross the area Tuesday. While modest WWA ahead of the cold front will bring increasingly warm and humid conditions, upper forcing is very limited, and overall precip is expected to be very limited ahead of the front Tuesday. Behind the cold front, drier high pressure builds in from the west, with lack of particularly strong CAA resulting in only a gradual cooling trend mid to late week. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... KCHS/KJZI: The 06z TAF period begins with a steady feed of light to moderate rain across the terminals that looks like it will continue through mid to late morning. Though conditions improved over the last few hours into the VFR range, we expect IFR conditions will return and likely stick around into the early afternoon. A surface trough will shift inland late this afternoon and into the evening, which will allow for VFR conditions to return and winds will turn to become southeasterly. KSAV: IFR conditions are in place to begin the 06z TAF period and the terminal is just to the west of ongoing light rain. Conditions should remain dry, other than an occasional passing shower through sunrise. IFR conditions are expected to linger into early afternoon. MVFR ceilings could then stick around through 06z Saturday, but there is some potential for improvement to VFR near the end as winds turn southeasterly. Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions in low clouds and showers are possible at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals Saturday afternoon and night, then become more likely with the arrival of showers and/or thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday night as a cold front passes through the region. Prevailing VFR conditions are then expected early next week. && .MARINE... Today through tonight: The coastal trough is expected to shift inland this afternoon and evening. As it does, the gradient will relax and winds and seas will both improve with time. Winds will be strongest this morning with 15-20 knots across the nearshore waters. As we move into the evening and overnight, winds will turn easterly and then southeasterly with wind speeds mostly in the 10-15 knot range. Seas will peak this morning, with up to 6 feet across the nearshore waters and up to 7 feet in the outer waters. By late tonight, expect 2-4 feet across the nearshore waters and 4-5 feet in the outer waters. Ongoing Small Craft Advisories will come down through the day, and we should be clear of all advisories by sunrise Saturday. Breezy S winds develop later Saturday into Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds could reach near SCA strength, but some uncertainty remains with regard to how well the warm airmass will mix across the shelf/nearshore waters. Current probabilities for wind gusts to 25 kt across the nearshore waters Sunday is around 20-30%, and closer to 60-70% over the Gulf Stream. Accordingly, seas increase to 4-7 ft during the strongest winds Sunday. Winds diminish Monday, before becoming moderate to breezy ahead of another cold front Tuesday. The sea fog threat also requires monitoring over the weekend and into early next week. While dew points will surge well into the 60s Saturday/Sunday and again Tuesday, wind direction/speed does not currently look particularly favorable for the BL flow to have the residence time over the cooler shelf waters (lower to mid 50s SST) necessary to develop a significant sea fog threat. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ350-352. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for AMZ354. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1213287 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:15 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 301 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 301 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 A band of convection developed last evening across central and southwest Louisiana along or just slightly a head of an advancing cold frontal boundary. This convection has started to weaken quite considerably over the last hour or two as the upper level trough begins to lift out taking much of the upper forcing along with it. Out ahead of this front the surface flow has actually remained quite moderate as the surface has yet to decouple. This is helping with moisture return and in some instances allowed the surface from cooling much. A low stratus deck continues to reside over the area and some stratus build down fog, if you will, has developed, especially over the lake. Hazy conditions haven`t become too consequential this morning as again the moderate low level flow is keeping visibilities at the surface in good shape. The surface frontal boundary is forecast to stall over/near the central Gulf Coast today. Despite the loss of some upper support we cannot rule out additional showers and storms, however, intensity and coverage appear to be limited. Later today and especially tonight we`ll begin to monitor an amplifying shortwave over the high plains. As the trough begins to amplify the residual surface front will begin to lift northward as a warm front. Along the front and with dynamic support from a perfectly timed H3 jet arrival, some showers and storms will develop along this boundary. The boundary will surge northward quickly allowing the warm sector to overspread the region by around noon. There is at least some severe weather potential initially with the warm front depending on timing of the upper forcing. Initially north of the front, elevated hailers would be the primary focus, however, right along the boundary, surface based instability will allow for at least a lower-end tornado potential early on as the front surges northward. Going into Saturday afternoon, guidance is a little murky in terms of what to expect. CAMs coming into range tell a very different story depending on the model. The key here is that moderate surface based instability should be around. With the surface low developing over the Delta Region, expect surface winds to back slightly adding at least some element of curvature to the low level hodograph. SRH looks to increase to around 200-300 M2/S2 as the LLJ begins to increase later in the afternoon. A line or broken line of storms should develop along the advancing frontal boundary. Any storm would have the potential to become severe with strong damaging wind gusts, hail, and a tornado potential would also be present. A stronger tornado or two cannot be ruled out over SW Mississippi and generally north of I12 in Louisiana where the higher instability and strongest wind shear will reside. Ahead of the line (or lines) of storms, we`ll have to monitor any cells that develop. Supercells wouldn`t be out of the question, especially in the unstable highly sheared environment. There are still some questions and potential limitations such as early convection disrupting low level thermals limiting instability, but this could be compensated for with such a strong moisture rich low level flow. Eventually, the front rolls through during the overnight hours Saturday taking the convection east of our region by Sunday morning. As for temperatures, with the strong southerly or southeasterly low level flow, above average is anticipated through the short term with temperatures climbing into the 70s for most both today and Saturday and some locations may end up close to 80F (looking at BTR). (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 301 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Dry west-northwesterly flow sets up behind the passing short wave and frontal boundary. Without much of a plunge in terms of a larger scale trough, temperatures will not change very much...just a little reduced humidity early in the long term. Overall, the pattern evolves to about more of the same...zonal/progressive to start the new workweek. Surface high pressure will see to it that we stay quiet at least Monday. Another upper level impulse begins to amplify over the cornbelt early to midweek next week, however, this feature stays well to our north. Although it does help drag a cold front through the region Tuesday or early Wednesday. Surface high pressure then makes its way east out of Texas and Oklahoma again keeping the weather on the quiet side and it is then that we will have another cool down as the large scale upper trough amplifies east of the Rockies. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Most terminals with IFR or lower conditions, mainly ceilings, at forecast issuance time. Wind speeds have been stronger tonight than last night, which has held fog at bay across most terminals. There have been some isolated warm advection showers across the area, which has actually improved ceilings somewhat. Boundary to our west remains west of a Vicksburg to Lafayette line, with a band of TSRA in advance of it. There`s been a significant break in coverage to the west of KBTR, so it may be quite a few more hours before there`s a significant threat at KBTR or KMCB, possibly beyond 09z. Most of the convection allowing models continue to weaken the current convection, with very little reaching Interstate 55. Some potential for a new area of convection to break out to the east of that during the afternoon on Friday, and will carry TSRA at KGPT during late morning and afternoon. Overall, most terminals will remain IFR or lower overnight tonight, improving to MVFR ceilings by late morning. While there may be a brief period with no flight restrictions during the afternoon, it would be a limited period, before conditions deteriorate again Friday night. (RW) && .MARINE... Issued at 301 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Marine fog over the lakes this morning will continue. Also, surface winds remain in the cautionary headline range at least for the next few hours before winds begin to subside. Going into the weekend southerly winds and seas should stay rather benign. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Saturday night as a cold front moves through the region. This will shift winds to a more northerly direction briefly before returning to a more southerly/onshore flow by the start of the new workweek. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 74 61 73 57 / 60 40 70 70 BTR 76 63 75 59 / 50 30 70 60 ASD 75 62 73 60 / 40 30 70 70 MSY 76 65 74 62 / 30 30 70 70 GPT 70 62 70 60 / 50 40 70 80 PQL 72 62 72 60 / 50 40 70 80 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ530-534. MS...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ534. && $$ |
| #1213288 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:15 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 404 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 403 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 A fairly interesting pattern is expected today with warm, moist air aloft continuing to overrun on top of a shallow cooler layer at the surface. This will lead to thick cloud cover sticking around for much of the morning and even into the afternoon today with high temperatures generally in the low 60s to low 70s. A surface low near the ArkLaTex this morning is forecast to push eastward a bit today as a shortwave rotates across the Plains. While this feature will stay west of us for now, it will help a warm front extending southeastward into the Gulf to begin pushing northward into our area. This will help erode that stubborn shallow layer of cool air at the surface while also helping bring a few more showers into the forecast later today and tonight. Thick cloud cover and perhaps some fog depending on if the winds decouple overnight will be likely late tonight into early Saturday morning. If fog does develop, it could very likely become quite dense due to the further increases in moisture across the region. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 403 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Saturday night into Sunday morning. Some of the storms over southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle could be strong to severe. Outside of the storms, temperatures will climb into the 70s Saturday and Sunday afternoons with lows in the 60s Saturday night and tumbling temperatures as a cold front moves through Sunday night. A strong H5 shortwave will be moving through the Southern Plains on Saturday before taking on a negative tilt as it approaches the Deep South. In response to this shortwave, a surface low develops in southern Oklahoma before moving through southern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and central Tennessee. Ahead of the surface low, a robust 40 to 50 knot low-level jet (LLJ) gets cranking across the Southeast Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Due to some timing differences among the model guidance, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather across the western half of our area, or a line from Apalachicola to near Albany and points to the west through 7am EST/6am CST Sunday and a Marginal Risk for all of the area after 7am EST/6am CST; this timing wind will be fine tuned in future forecasts. Damaging wind is the primary concern with a couple tornadoes and hail also possible. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 403 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Another cold front is forecast to swing through the region late Tuesday into Wednesday Ahead of that front temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 70s before easing back into the 50s and 60s for highs following the front. Not much rain is anticipated with this cold front with ensemble guidance showing a less than 20% chance of picking up more than 0.1" of rain. Aloft, an H5 ridge over the Caribbean stretches into the Gulf of Mexico as a brief bout of zonal flow takes over the southern third of the country. A quick shortwave slicing through the Ohio River Valley will send a cold front through here Tuesday night into Wednesday. With little moisture return ahead of it, not much, if any, rain is expected at this time. Following the front, temperatures will ease back closer to seasonal normals to start 2025 with highs in the 60s on Wednesday and back into the 50s on Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 IFR to MVFR conditions are expected to continue through the rest of the night and into the morning today, with some spots of LIFR possible around sunrise. Conditions will likely be slow to improve but eventually should reach MVFR to VFR this afternoon. Another round of lowering ceilings and potentially fog is expected overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 403 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Moderate to fresh southeasterly breezes continue today before decreasing to light to moderate tonight into Saturday. Winds clock around from the southeast today to southerly Saturday ahead of a cold front. This cold front will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially west of Apalachicola. Winds turn more westerly to northwesterly following the cold front Sunday into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 403 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Increasing moisture is expected to continue today and Saturday ahead of the next frontal system. A shallow layer of cooler air will likely persist today before eroding when a warm front pushes northward across the area later this evening and tonight. Cloud cover will likely persist for much of the day today, leading dispersions to be poor to fair across the area today and only slightly better on Saturday. A cold front will push through the area on Sunday with cooler and drier conditions in its wake. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 403 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 No flooding concerns are anticipated the next several days. Rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches with the next few systems are expected across southeast Alabama and the Panhandle, with lesser amounts further east across the Big Bend and southern Georgia. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 68 61 74 64 / 0 10 20 70 Panama City 69 62 74 63 / 10 20 40 80 Dothan 65 59 75 63 / 10 20 40 80 Albany 64 59 75 63 / 0 10 30 70 Valdosta 68 62 78 64 / 10 10 40 60 Cross City 74 61 79 63 / 10 10 20 40 Apalachicola 65 62 70 62 / 10 10 20 70 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ750-752- 770-772. && $$ |
| #1213286 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:15 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 411 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to build in from the north through today, shifting offshore tonight through this weekend. A strong cold front will bring unsettled weather Sunday into early Monday. High pressure briefly builds back into the area Monday night, and a quick moving frontal system will bring rain showers back to the region late Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 400 AM Fri...Classic CAD pattern taking shape over the Carolinas this morning as surface high pressure centered over New England further entrenches itself along the Appalachians. Sharp low-level inversion has resulted in a persistent stratus deck over much of the region as 925mb WAA overruns the surface ridge. Also of note is weak elevated shower activity rotation eastward over coastal NC in tandem with weak shortwave energy despite general ridging aloft. Forecast today calls for further sharpening of the surface trough as it meanders closer to the coast. Upper level ridging as a whole will act to limit more widespread activity, but ample low-level moisture and weak shortwave activity aloft, along with the surface boundary, will likely provide just enough support for some weak activity through the rest of this morning and into the afternoon, focused mainly along and south of Highway 70. As is typical in CAD- adjacent forecasts, skies tend to be more overcast than suggested by guidance and thus temps generally too warm. Today is no exception, and leaned the official forecast towards the lower quartile of the forecast envelope favoring highs only in the low to mid 50s inland. Exception to this was along the coast where some clearing and warming is likely along and east of the trough axis, and favored temps at or above 60 here. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 405 AM Fri...Surface boundary will further impinge on coastal NC overnight, resulting in winds veering southeasterly by Sat AM. Onshore trajectories point to a more noticeable rise in surface moisture, especially along the coast, and temps are likely to steadily rise for these spots with overnight lows occurring right around midnight. Farther inland, ongoing low cloud cover will keep the diurnal curve narrow. Lows for the coastal plain settle in the upper 40s, while along the coast minTs stay at or above 50. Increasing pre- frontal WAA opens the door to another risk of coastal showers by sunrise Sat. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 3 AM Fri... KEY MESSAGES *Widely scattered showers possible Saturday, otherwise it will be dry with above normal conditions *A strong cold front will move through the area Sunday into Monday morning, and has the potential to bring rain, strong winds, and severe weather to Eastern NC *Another quick shot of rain likely late Tuesday into Wednesday morning, with conditions likely turning much colder the rest of next week Saturday...As high pressure shifts offshore Saturday and southerly flow develops, the remnant coastal trough will pivot farther inland, and may help promote additional widely scattered light shower development. Low level heights will soar Saturday, and even with a mix of sun and clouds highs should rise into the low 70s away from the immediate coast where readings will remain in the 60s. Sunday and Monday...A potent upper level trough will move out of the Tennessee Valley early Sunday while a surface low deepens across the Ohio Valley. As the upper trough heads east Sunday, it will likely take on a negative tilt, and allow for deep warm air advection to develop across the Carolinas. This will swing a slow moving but potentially strong cold front through the area late Sunday into early Monday. Forecast confidence continues to increase, and have raised PoPs to 70-90%, and expanded thunder chances to include the entire forecast area as the WAA out ahead of the front taps into and advects northward Gulf of Mexico and Tropical Atlantic air. It`s still too early to say what kind of severe weather threat will accompany this front, but early indications and pattern recognition would say there is some higher end severe potential with this system, if all the ingredients can come together. The front should clear the coast by Monday morning, and high pressure moving in behind it will lead to above normal conditions continuing Monday. Tuesday through Thursday...A quick moving frontal system will zip across the Eastern US on Tuesday, and bring a shot of light rain to the Carolinas from late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Latest trends are drier for this system, so will hold chance PoPs at around 30-40% for now. Behind this system conditions will begin to turn much colder for the rest of next week as strong and cold high pressure builds in. One last day of above normal temps is likely Wednesday with highs in the low 60s, and then we`ll see highs only in the low 50s for Thursday. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 06Z Sat/... As of 1255 AM Fri...Widespread MVFR remains entrenched over eastern NC this morning with low-level WAA associated with sharpening troughing offshore overrunning a cool high pressure wedge at the surface. LAMP guidance has trended more pessimistically with duration of lower cigs and is in line with more aggressive hi-res guidance, pointing to prevailing MVFR through the rest of the night. After sunrise, cigs will scatter about but some bounces between VFR and MVFR are likely through the afternoon. Forecast for tonight is low confidence and is dependent on how strong and expansive the surface wedge will be. IFR or worse cigs are likely on the cool side of this boundary, and some of the more aggressive guidance has this extending into the inner coastal plain. For now, leaned the forecast on the more conservative side after 00z Sat but trends will need to be monitored closely through the day. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 3 AM Fri...Conditions should be mostly VFR Saturday with high pressure over the area and just some widely scattered showers. By Sunday, increasing rain chances ahead of a cold front may bring some sub-VFR conditions to the region through Monday morning. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 410 AM Fri...Marine conditions showing slow improvement this morning as offshore trough continues to meander closer to the mainland while high pressure ridge remains firmly in place over the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic. Northeasterly winds have weakened to 10-15 kt, although a few infrequent gusts to 25 kt are still being observed along the Gulf Stream. Seas have gradually ebbed, now at around 4 feet areawide. The wind threat will likely linger into the morning mainly over the outer warmer waters into this morning, and left the SCA in place from Cape Hatteras southward for this risk. Once the coastal trough drifts inland tonight, winds will weaken further and veer out of the southeast at around 10 kt. Shower activity associated with the coastal trough/front increases overnight and today, but is expected to remain thunder free. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 3 AM Fri...Half-decent boating conditions will exist until Sunday when winds increase ahead of a cold front. Winds on Saturday will increase to SE at 10-20 kts as high pressure shifts offshore. A slow moving cold front will approach Sunday and winds will increase ahead of it to S 15-25 kts by late morning, and then to 25-35 kts with gusts 40+ kts by Sunday evening across the warmer coastal waters, with winds remaining 15-25 kts over the cooler sound and nearshore shelf waters. Winds will then subside and turn to the west behind the front at 10-20 kts Tuesday. Seas will be 3-5 ft through Sunday morning, but some 6 foot seas are possible over the outer portion of the forecast zones south of Cape Hatteras. Thereafter, seas will increase as winds strengthen, becoming 5-8 ft by Sunday afternoon, and peaking at 7-12 ft early Monday morning. Seas then subside Monday to 4-6 ft by early afternoon, and then will be 2-4 ft late Monday through Tuesday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ154. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ156-158. && $$ |
| #1213285 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:00 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Wilmington NC 358 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will ridge across the inland Carolinas from the north, while a weak coastal front develops over the adjacent Atl Waters and moves onshore today and well inland through Sat. Look for a warming trend after its passage that will continue through the weekend. A cold front will move through the area Sun into early Mon with categorical rain chances that may be accompanied by isolated thunder. Brief high pressure with continued mild temps will occur Mon into Tue that will be followed by another cold frontal passage accompanied by modest rain chances. High pressure and near normal temps will prevail Wed into Thu. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CAD wedge remains in place over the area, though shallower than yesterday. Overrunning due to southerly flow over the wedge continues to produce scattered light showers. Showers will continue through midday before activity shifts inland, with a dry forecast east of I-95 by late afternoon. Due to shallow nature of lift, QPF is minimal with 0.1-0.15" at best across parts of NE SC. Coastal trough currently offshore will attempt to move onshore late this afternoon, leading to a large gradient in high temps today between near 60F close to the coast and mid to upper 40s along and west of I- 95, courtesy of cloudy skies and persistent wedge. If coastal front moves onshore later than expected and low clouds linger across coastal counties, may see high temps cooler than forecasted. Tonight, the front progresses inland, leading to a warming trend overnight with lows of upper 40s/low 50s occurring early in the night. In fact, temps late tonight across most inland areas will be warmer than daytime temps today as the wedge is eroded by the front. Areas of fog are forecasted to develop west of the front tonight, with main focus along and west of I-95. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Sat features a coastal front basically along the I-95 corridor at the start of this period. And should lift further NW during the day Sat. The entire ILM CWA should be within the warm sector by Sat night under SE flow. With moist conditions, sfc-7H could see periodic showers with POPs limited in the low chance category, with some of this activity coming in off the Atl waters, as well as embedded mid-level s/w trofs. As sfc dewpoints increase to 60 and above late Sat thru Sun, sea fog, possibly dense, may become an issue along the coast. With the upper ridging off the East Coast and the FA becoming more under the influence of the approaching upper trof from the west. The mid-level s/w rotating within this upper trof will lift NE from the lower Mississippi River Valley Sat night to the Great Lakes as a closed Low Sun night. The trof axis extending from this closed low will sweep across the FA midday Sun into Sun evening, negatively tilted as it progresses across the FA. At the sfc, it will lift a warm front across the FA with winds becoming southerly and gusty later Sat night thru Sun. This will also help drive a cfp Sun night. We should see categorical POPs with this event Sun/Sun night, but have included only a slight chance for thunder, especially inland. The stable marine layer will diminish convection chances, especially near the coast however this stable layer will diminish in height the further inland 1 progresses, with thunder likely elevated but having a better chance of occurring. Temps will be warm thru this period, 10 to 15 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Flow aloft flattens out some Mon into Tue with weak sfc high progressing from the Gulf Coast States Mon to offshore from the SE States Tue. Temps Mon thru Tue, will continue nearly 15 degrees above normal. A potent mid-level s/w trof will track from the Rockies Mon to the Eastern Great Lakes by Wed morning. This will drive a somewhat moisture starved cold front, after it crosses the Appalachians, across the FA Tue night and well offshore by Wed daybreak. Have included low rain chances with its passage, with no real tapping of any major moisture sources. Look for actual and decent CAA after this CFP (especially when compared with the previous CFP). Expect dry conditions Wed and Thu with slightly above normal temps Wed and below normal temps Thu with another reinforcing CAA surge as sfc ridging extends from a strong Canadian high dropping down into central U.S. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Current MVFR stratus deck of 1500 ft over the Cape Fear region, impacting KILM, will linger for (at least) a few more hours. May see brief periods of improvement during pre-dawn hours. Low ceilings are expected to develop across most of the area, particularly northeast SC, by dawn, with ceilings potentially lowering to IFR across inland terminals by midday. Conditions improve near the coast this afternoon as coastal trough begins to slowly move onshore. Inland NE SC, including KFLO, has the greatest chance of remaining sub-VFR throughout TAF period (once low ceilings develop by morning). Keeping an eye on IFR fog potential tonight/Saturday morning, west of the inland moving coastal front. Northeast winds during the day today turn southeasterly tonight. Scattered light showers through morning will shift to west of I-95 this afternoon. Extended Outlook...Scattered showers possible Saturday and rain likely on Sunday, possibly including isolated thunderstorms. MVFR possible. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Coastal trough currently offshore will begin to move inland as a front late this afternoon, making the most progress inland tonight. Northeast winds 15-20 kts this morning will weaken during the day as the trough moves towards the coast, with 10-15 kt onshore southeasterly winds expected by this evening across the coastal waters. Seas 3-5 ft early today will lower to 3-4 ft this afternoon into tonight as the NE wind wave weakens and the SE component slowly builds. A long period 1-2 ft easterly swell is forecasted to enter our waters late tonight. Scattered light showers will linger until midday. Saturday through Tuesday Night...For Sat thru Sat night look for SE 10-15 kt winds becoming S and increasing to 15 to 20 kt and gusty by late Sat night. This in advance of an approaching cold front. Seas 2 to 4 ft Sat to increase to 4 to 6 ft Sat night. Wind driven waves will dominate the 2 periods with an underlying 10+ second period Easterly swell. Sun thru Sun night, winds and seas will peak during this period as a sfc cold front approaches from the mainland Sun then pushes across and offshore Sun night. S winds 15 to 25 kt g30 kt Sun becoming SW same speeds Sun night. Winds 40 kt just off the deck will be prevalent Sun but the stable marine layer, where SSTs in the 50s, should prevent majority of these winds from reaching the cool ocean sfc as gusts. Best chance of 1nm or less vsby from pcpn will occur Sun aftn and evening. Sea fog may also become an issue starting later Sat thru Sat night into Sun as sfc dewpoint sin the low 60s pushes across local SSTs in the 50s. Winds become W to NW Mon with diminishing speed as weak high pressure builds in. Mon night into Tue, winds 10 kt or less with speeds variable in direction. Next cold surge occurs Tue night with SW-W winds increasing 15 to 20 kt as the sfc pg tightens.Seas will initially subside to 1 to 3 ft than build 3 to 5 ft Tue night. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1213284 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:00 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 353 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain dry weather through Friday. Light icing is possible early Saturday ahead of a warm front, that will bring rain and milder air into the region over the weekend and into early next week. Another low pressure system may bring rain around New Years Day, then colder air should follow for the first few days of 2025. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 345 AM Update: A 1033 mb high pressure area was centered over northwest MA early this morning. Clear skies and light to calm winds have resulted in near optimal radiational cooling conditions. Many areas early this morning were down in the mid teens, while a few locations in northwest MA were in the low single digits! As is typical in strong radiational cooling situations, elevated sites tend to be "warmer", and the warmest readings are currently being observed at Worcester Airport at this hour, in the upper 20s. Tranquil weather conditions are expected for today under governing high pressure. Light winds to gradually become light out of the SW. Satellite shows a shield of high cloudiness which currently extends across west-central NY, and this stream of high clouds is forecast to advance eastward into Southern New England by late morning into the afternoon. Still, expect a generous dose of sunshine today. For temperatures...even though our 850 mb temps running around +4C today would argue for warmer readings, forecast mixing is expected to be quite shallow today and we won`t mix to that depth. Still, temperatures should rebound back into the mid 30s to lower 40s, perhaps a few mid-40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 345 AM Update: Key Messages: * A light glaze of ice from freezing rain into interior Southern New England mainly during the Saturday morning hours. Icing may linger in lower-elevation interior areas (the CT/Merrimack Valleys) into the early afternoon. Impacts from ice accretion solely limited to travel. Winter Weather Advisories issued. * Light rain across RI and much of eastern/southeast MA. * Rain becomes more intermittent/drizzly late afternoon to Saturday evening. Details... Increasing cloudiness develops tonight in response to a warm front associated with a frontal system now near the mid-MS Valley region. This feature is expected to begin to spread light precipitation by the Saturday pre-dawn hours timeframe in interior western New England, and into early Saturday morning for eastern portions of Southern New England. Before precipitation arrives, we should see some initial period of radiational cooling helping to drive temps into the mid- 20s by early overnight. During the second half of the overnight, increasing cloudiness and very light southerly flow should allow for surface temps to very slowly rise into the upper 20s for most, to around freezing for southeast New England. Precip then begins to break out around 4-6 AM Saturday in western New England, and into 5-8 AM Saturday for central and eastern portions of Southern New England. Temperatures are quite warm aloft with a pronounced warm nose and associated maximum temps in the warm nose around +6C. Precip types will be one of either rain or freezing rain, surface-temperature dependent, with no in-between. Greatest risk for light ice accretions is in interior Southern New England north and west of Interstate 95. Freezing rain should gradually transition over to plain rain from south to north as temperatures slowly warm above freezing. Model forecast soundings in lower elevations in the CT valley and Merrimack Valley show very limited mixing and a slower scour-out of sub-freezing air supporting a somewhat longer duration of FZRA for those areas. In fact, more elevated sites like the Berkshires and hills in northern Worcester County could flip above freezing several hrs before areas along the I-91 corridor would. For RI and the Boston/Providence corridor south and east, there could be some patchy slippery spots at onset as plain rain falls on cold ground given the recent spell of below normal temperatures, but felt the prevalence of freezing rain was unlikely enough to hold off on extending winter weather advisories into these areas for now. It would take an earlier arrival of precip before we would then become more concerned about the potential for light accretions of ice for the locations currently outside of the Advisory area, and that seems to be a less likely outcome given recent trends in the NWP guidance. In terms of QPF, this is a really light event. Only looking at liquid-equivalent amts of a tenth to at worst two tenths of an inch, and a fraction of that would be ice where freezing rain is expected. Following recent science behind the Freezing Rain Accumulation Methodology, very light winds and light precipitation rates with this event are both meteorological factors which should allow ice to accrete efficiently on surfaces where temps are cold enough for freezing rain. But...it`s just not a lot. A few hundredeths of icing is forecast in the Advisory areas, with totals no greater than a tenth of an inch, and those higher totals more likely to be observed in the CT Valley given the longer duration and expected longer residence time of subfreezing air. Given the expected increased traffic volume coming out of the recent holidays, and that light freezing rain events often cause greater travel impacts, coordination with neighboring offices prompted issuance of Winter Weather Advisories which run from 4 AM til 1 PM Saturday. Precipitation then starts to shift offshore by late in the day into Saturday evening, as a dryslot moves in aloft. There is an abundance of trapped low level moisture underneath the dryslot, which is a classic pattern for drizzle and fog for Saturday night/overnight as the warm front more or less either stalls or washes out ahead of the next warm frontal surge slated for Sunday. Lows should reach into the mid 30s to near 40. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Messages * Mild/unsettled weather expected between Sunday and the middle of next week * Two substantial precipitation events expected Sunday night/Monday and Wednesday * Trending colder/drier late next week Sunday and Monday Deep south/southwest flow continues to advect mild air into southern New England with 925 hPa temps approaching 10 Celsius on Sunday afternoon. Skies remain cloudy on Sunday, but nonetheless we`re still anticipating well above normal surface temperatures ranging from the low to mid 50sF across the region. Continue to expect some hit or miss warm advection driven showers early Sunday, but precipitation coverage should become more steady as a frontal wave approaches southern New England from the west Sunday afternoon. This system will support wet/rainy conditions through Monday morning and perhaps into early Monday afternoon. Not expecting any frozen precipitation given the mild air mass that will be in place. Tuesday through Thursday A mid-level ridge and associated surface high pressure move over southern New England on Tuesday supporting a lull in the wet/unsettled pattern and another mild day with temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s. This lull will be short-lived as another low- pressure system brings substantial precipitation to southern New England on Wednesday. Ensemble probabilities for greater than 0.5 inches of liquid precipitation are currently hovering in the 50 to 60 percent range across the region. No signals for any snow or frozen precipitation at this time, but there could be a risk for some freezing rain across the interior Wednesday morning. We`ll have a better idea as the event draws nearer. Cool/dry conditions settle in on Thursday as the cold front associated with the aforementioned area of low-pressure moves through the region. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z TAF Update: High confidence. Through 12Z...High Confidence VFR. Light north/northwest winds. Today...High Confidence VFR. Light winds becoming west/southwesterly. Tonight...Moderate Confidence VFR through 06Z with light winds. MVFR cigs and -FZRA begin to move into the western areas between 06 and 12Z. Tomorrow...Moderate Confidence MVFR/IFR ceilings with light southerly winds. -FZRA possible between roughly 12 and 15Z, but any -FZRA should transition to -RA by late morning as temperatures rise above freezing. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. Low risk for icing early Saturday. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Potential for light icing from -FZRA (less than 0.10") early Sat. Outlook /Sunday through Tuesday/... Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. RA likely. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. RA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. RA. Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA. Tuesday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence for next several days. High pressure over New England maintains light winds and light seas into Sat night; winds shift SW today and continue into Sat. A frontal system moves in on Saturday, however mainly light rain is expected, which could be interspersed with fog as we move into the Saturday afternoon/evening period. Increasing S/SE winds later Sun into Mon should bring building seas and periods of rain, when SCAs should be needed on most of the waters. Outlook /Sunday through Tuesday/... Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain. Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Rain. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for CTZ002>004. MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for MAZ002>006-008>012-026. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1213281 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:00 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 345 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 ...LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND PATCHES OF DRIZZLE THIS MORNING... ...CLOUDS PERSIST TODAY WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR... ...WARMER THIS WEEKEND WITH STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 346 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Overnight surface analysis depicts strong high pressure (1035 millibars) centered over New England, with this feature wedging down the spine of the Appalachians into the southeastern states. Meanwhile, a stubborn coastal trough remains situated over our local near shore Atlantic waters, with this feature generating widely scattered showers, mainly offshore. Otherwise, low pressure (1006 millibars) was organizing over the Ozarks along a frontal boundary that extends southward across the lower Mississippi Valley and coastal Texas. Aloft...ridging was in place along the U.S. eastern seaboard, downstream of a potent shortwave trough that was lifting north-northeastward from the lower Mississippi Valley towards the Tennessee Valley, ahead of a broad longwave trough that was digging from the Rockies through the southern Plains states. Low stratus ceilings were blanketing our entire region due to the surface wedge in place over the southeastern states, with pockets of locally dense fog and drizzle developing across our region as well. Temperatures and dewpoints at 08Z ranged from 45-50 degrees across inland southeast GA to the 50s elsewhere. && .NEAR TERM... (through Tonight) Issued at 346 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 The wedge of high pressure extending from New England into the southeastern states will begin to break down this afternoon as the surface ridge shifts offshore of the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts. This will allow a stubborn coastal trough that has been stuck over our near shore Atlantic waters to morph into a warm front later today, with strengthening isentropic lift / overrunning along this feature developing showers and even some isolated thunderstorms over our local waters early this morning, with this activity likely brushing the northeast FL coast after sunrise and expanding in coverage somewhat towards the I-95 corridor by early afternoon. A few showers could extend as far west as the U.S. Highway 301 corridor in north central and northeast FL through mid-afternoon before activity lifts northward across mainly coastal southeast GA during the late afternoon and early evening hours tonight. Meanwhile, southwesterly flow aloft will advect weak shortwave energy across our area this afternoon as a potent shortwave trough accelerates north-northeastward across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Multi-layered cloudiness will again remain abundant across our area today, with a few breaks in the lower stratus possible this afternoon across north central FL and the Suwannee Valley as warm frontogenesis occurs over this area during the afternoon hours, where highs should climb into the 70s. Model soundings indicate some meager ML CAPE values of around 500 j/kg developing this warm sector this afternoon, so an isolated, low-topped thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for locations along and east of U.S. Highway 301. Thick stratus, with locally dense fog and patches of drizzle, are expected to persist through most of the morning hours, especially at coastal locations and for areas along and north of I-10 into southeast GA, where lower stratus will likely prevail into the afternoon hours, which will keep highs in the low to mid 60s. Onshore winds, showers, and persistent low stratus cloud cover should keep coastal highs in the low to mid 60s, except upper 60s for locations south of St. Augustine this afternoon. An unseasonably warm and humid air mass will then advect into our region in the wake of the lifting warm front overnight, with low stratus ceilings and potentially dense fog redeveloping overnight once shower activity exits coastal southeast GA early in the evening. Temperatures will largely remain steady in the 60-65 degree range overnight at most locations. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 346 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Saturday, a warm front will lift north of area as high pressure shifts away from the Mid Atlantic coast. Southerly flow above the surface will increase moisture levels and support isolated to scattered showers under mostly cloudy skies with light SE winds generally 5-10 mph. Highs will be above normal in the mid 70s for SE GA and the upper 70s over NE FL with cooler highs around 70 at the SE GA coast and low 70s at the NE FL coast in the SE onshore flow. Areas of fog Saturday morning will lift by mid morning. Saturday night, a mid/upper level trough digging into the southern plains will pivot towards the TN valley. This feature will support a surface cold front that will develop and move through the lower MS river valley. Showers will increase in coverage late Saturday night from the west with winds becoming southerly. An isolated thunderstorm is possible west of I-75 and US-441 through sunrise. Sunday, the mid/upper level trough will take on a negative tilt as a short wave moves through the base of the trough from the TN valley into the OH valley in the morning and then the eastern great lakes by the afternoon. This will push the surface cold through the area with SW flow aloft over southerly low level winds creating good surface convergence while diffluent flow in the jet stream level winds help support strong lift over the region. Warm and moist airmass from the Gulf will help support unstable low level airmass (CAPE over 1000 J/kg) with sufficient 0-6km shear 30-40 knots for a marginal threat of isolated severe thunderstorms for wind gusts 40-60 mph. A isolated tornado risk cannot be ruled out due to the strong veering low level winds. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s. Sunday night, showers associated with the cold frontal boundary will move off the coast after midnight with clouds remaining partly cloudy. Decreasing winds will turn westerly towards sunrise. Lows will be in the 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday Night) Issued at 346 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Monday, zonal flow in the mid levels will spread eastward along the Gulf coast as the trough lifts into the NE states. Weak high pressure at the surface will briefly build in over the area with NW winds turning southerly by later in the afternoon as the high quickly shifts off the SE US coast. Highs will be about 5 degrees above normal in the low 70s inland and mid 70s over north central FL with near normal highs along the coast into the upper 60s as a weak seabreeze develops in the afternoon. Lows will be mild in the 50s Tuesday, an upstream shortwave will migrate form the Mid MS valley towards the Mid Atlantic region. A cold front will drag through the deep south with moisture overrunning the drier airmass lingering over the area that will support isolated light showers late in the day. Southwest winds will become elevated 10-15 mph. Highs will again be above normal. Lows Tuesday morning will be 5-10 degrees above normal in the low/mid 50s. Wednesday, the cold front will clear east of the area early in the day and end showers before lunchtime. Skies will become mostly sunny as strong Canadian airmass builds in from the NW. Highs will be near normal in the mid/upper 60s with low 70s over north central FL. Lows Wednesday morning will again be 5-10 degrees above normal in the low/mid 50s. Thursday, the strong high builds southward from the upper plains into the southern plains with light northwest winds and high level clouds as shortwave trough racing from the Mid-South to the Carolina coast reinforces deep troughing over the eastern two thirds of the country. Highs will remain below normal in the upper 50s to low 60s over SE GA and the lower 60s over NE FL. Lows Thursday morning will fall a little below normal in the lower 40s to mid/upper 40s along the coast. By Friday morning, lows will fall to around 10 degrees below normal in the low/mid 30s inland that may support a potential frost with lows moderated a bit at the coast to the upper 30s/low 40s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 115 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 LIFR conditions will prevail through at least 14Z at the northeast FL terminals, with periods of VLIFR likely during the predawn and early morning hours on Friday as ceilings continue to lower, with drizzle and dense fog expanding to the northeast FL terminals before sunrise. IFR ceilings will prevail overnight at SSI, with conditions then deteriorating to LIFR and possibly VLIFR after shortly after sunrise as drizzle and fog expand northward over coastal southeast GA. Showers will begin to move onshore along coastal northeast FL after sunrise, with light showers expected at SGJ by the mid to late morning hours. Confidence was too low to indicate anything other than vicinity shower coverage at the Duval County terminals and GNV during the late morning and afternoon hours on Friday. Shower coverage will then shift northward over coastal southeast GA during the late afternoon and early evening hours, with onset of light rainfall expected after 20Z at SSI. Ceilings and visibilities will slowly improve outside of shower activity on Friday afternoon, with a brief period of low MVFR ceilings of 1,000-1,500 feet possible after 19Z at the northeast FL terminals. However, IFR ceilings will likely redevelop at the regional terminals after sunset early on Friday evening. Northerly surface winds sustained at 10-15 knots will continue through around sunrise at the SGJ and SSI coastal terminals, with speeds at the inland terminals mostly remaining in the 5-10 knot range. Surface winds will then gradually veer to northeasterly towards noon and then easterly towards sunset on Friday evening, with diminishing speeds forecast after 01Z Saturday. && .MARINE... Issued at 346 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Strong high pressure centered over New England will continue to wedge down the southeastern seaboard through tonight, keeping Small Craft Advisory conditions in place through this evening for the offshore waters, where seas of 6-8 feet will prevail today. Small Craft will need to Exercise Caution if venturing into the near shore waters, where seas of 4-6 feet will prevail through tonight. Meanwhile, a stubborn coastal trough situated over our near shore waters will lift northward as a warm front this afternoon and evening. Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will increase in coverage this morning over the northeast Florida waters, with this activity shifting northward over the Georgia waters this afternoon and evening as the warm front lifts northward. Winds and seas will briefly diminish on Saturday, with southeasterly winds then strengthening and shifting to southerly by late Saturday night and Sunday as low pressure develops and intensifies over the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Small Craft Advisory level seas of 5-7 feet may redevelop offshore by late Saturday night or early Sunday. Seas of 3-5 feet are expected throughout the weekend near shore. This storm system will push a cold front eastward across our local waters on Sunday night, with showers and a few thunderstorms expected ahead of this front from Saturday night through Sunday evening. Weak high pressure will then briefly build over our local waters on Monday, with this feature then shifting offshore ahead of the next cold front that is slated to cross our local waters on Tuesday night. Rip Currents: Gusty northerly winds this morning will become onshore this afternoon, with breakers of 4-5 feet at the northeast FL beaches and 3-4 feet at the southeast GA beaches resulting in a high rip current risk at all area beaches today. Breakers will subside slightly on Saturday, with a persistent onshore breeze likely resulting in a higher end moderate rip current risk at area beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 64 60 75 62 / 20 10 30 60 SSI 62 60 70 60 / 50 20 30 50 JAX 69 61 75 62 / 40 10 30 50 SGJ 67 64 74 62 / 50 10 30 40 GNV 74 62 77 62 / 20 10 30 50 OCF 76 63 79 63 / 20 20 20 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133- 138. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ470-472- 474. && $$ |
| #1213282 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:00 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 349 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and dry weather is expected again today. Clouds increase tonight through Friday, with occasional light rain developing over the Virginia piedmont Friday afternoon and evening. Temperatures warm back to above normal this weekend, as a more unsettled weather pattern returns. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 945 PM EST Thursday... Forecast in good shape. Much of the area remains clear except the far south being impacted by high cloud. This has allowed temps to drop into the low-mid 30s across much of the area. With these clear skies persisting for much of the night, will keep lows generally in the mid 20s in the Piedmont, 95 corridor and MD Eastern Shore, and lower to mid 30s closer to the coast. As of 320 PM EST Thursday... Key Message: - Seasonable tonight with lows mainly in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Latest analysis shows ~1036 mb surface high pressure still in place and centered from the Saint Lawrence Valley and interior New England, ridging south into to the Mid-Atlantic and down the Eastern Seaboard. Aloft, an upper ridge is moving across the Mid-Atlantic, while a digging shortwave trough moves through the SW, setting up the next system for the area. High pressure will remain in place through Fri with a strong inversion of cool CAD/wedged air. Mid-level cloudiness has thinned, leaving high clouds across the area, clearing into the overnight. Temps overnight will be very similar to last night, with lows in the mid to upper 20s (SE VA/NE NC slightly warmer with lows in the mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM EST Thursday... Key Message: - Increasing cloud cover Fri with cloudy and cool conditions for most of the area, moderate temperatures along SE coast. - Spotty light rain and cooler conditions inland Friday night and Saturday. Mainly cloudy, with warming trend continuing along the coast. - Multiple frontal systems will pass through the area bringing chances of rain. The best chance of rain is from Sunday through Sunday night, when precipitation amounts could exceed 0.50" across much of the area. The upper level ridge will weaken and slowly move offshore on Fri, as the surface level high lingers around the NE coast allowing CAD/wedge to develop along the eastern seaboard. Recent model guidance is hinting to a stronger CAD event with the cool air lingering around the Piedmont. It`s important to note that the models do not have a good understanding on how the wedge performs and tend to under perform. This being said, have leaned towards the NAM guidance, rather than NBM, keeping high temps Fri in the mid 40s for the majority of the region and Sat in the upper 40s in the Piedmont to upper 60s in the SE VA/NE NC. As we saw with a similar, albeit stronger, CAD airmass earlier in the month, it does not take much overrunning moisture to result in persistent spotty showers and cooler than otherwise expected temps. Overnight, lows Fri will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s and lows Sat will be warmer, with lingering wedged air towards the Piedmont with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s towards the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 245 PM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Milder temperatures are expected through at least Tuesday. - A cold front will bring the chance for rain showers from later Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Dry weather and cooler temperatures return for Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Milder temps are expected for Mon and Tue. Dry weather will prevail for Mon aftn (behind an exiting front) into early Tue aftn, before another cold front approaches and pushes across the area and off the coast later Tue aftn through Wed morning. That front will bring the chance for rain showers. Dry weather and cooler temps will return for Wed aftn through Thu. Highs will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s Mon and Tue, range through the 50s Wed, and in the mid 40s to lower 50s Thu. Lows will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s Mon night, range through the 40s Tue night, and mainly in the lower to mid 30s Wed night. This is my (Timothy Gingrich) last official discussion for the NWS Wakefield, as I will be retiring as of Saturday, December 28th after 35 years as a forecaster in the NWS. Thank you to all my colleagues and co-workers for their shared knowledge, help, and friendship throughout my career. You all have made my experience enjoyable and bearable in some tough times, both professionally and personally. Thank you again. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1245 AM EST Friday... Stratocu have developed both across the Piedmont and as a marine layer pushing onshore with MVFR CIGs (~2500 ft). The clouds have already moved over SBY with ECG on the edge of the thicker cloud cover. As such, expect these clouds to push farther onshore into early this morning with MVFR CIGs reaching ECG and potentially ORF/PHF. However, confidence is lower at ORF and especially PHF and therefore have gone with a TEMPO for ORF from 9-13z. Models generally suggest that CIGs improve after sunrise to mainly VFR, however, some models (notably the RAP) suggest that the MVFR CIGs linger through the day as they gradually push inland. Otherwise, cloud cover increases through the day Fri with lowering CIGs and fog possible Fri night (highest confidence across the Piedmont). Outlook: This weekend, as high pressure moves offshore, a warm front will push north through the area bringing chances of rain Sat with rain likely on Sunday, as a cold front moves through the area. A few embedded thunderstorms are also possible Sunday. Degraded conditions are possible Friday night through Sunday between low CIGs, fog, and rain. Dry/VFR conditions return Mon, as high pressure builds in from the W. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EST Friday... Key Messages: - Relatively benign conditions continue through Saturday. - SCA conditions are likely across the marine area Sunday with increasing southerly winds. High pressure remains centered N/NE of the local marine area early this morning, bringing a N-NE wind of 10-15 kt. Seas are 2-3 ft N and 3-4 S, with waves 1-2 ft in the Bay, rivers, and sound. The sfc high is forecast to settle a bit S into the region later today, allowing the pressure gradient to weaken, with winds diminishing to 5-10 kt and becoming E to SE tonight, as a warm front lifts N through the area. Winds will only average 5-10 kt tonight through midday Saturday, with dew pts expected to rise well above sfc water temperature. This setup may lead to marine fog. S winds eventually increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late Saturday and Sat night which would tend to break up the fog during that timeframe. Winds continue to increase to 15-25 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt Sun into Sun night ahead of an approaching low pressure system and associated cold front. It will be a very warm airmass so mixing over the water will be limited outside of convection. There is still a strong enough pressure gradient and a strong low level jet that confidence is high at seeing SCAs, along with seas building to 5-7 ft. The chc for Gales is very low however. Widespread showers with embedded storms move across the local waters Sun into Sun evening ahead of and along the aforementioned cold front and locally that could bring down the stronger winds with 925mb winds 50 kt+ (situation that would be handled w/ SMWs). Winds become W behind the cold front Mon. Will note that a brief period of gusty W winds is possible behind the cold front, but CAA is weak and the pressure gradient quickly looks to relax Min aftn/Mon night. High pressure builds in early next week with an unsettled pattern again developing around New Year`s Day or beyond. A lot of uncertainty at this range, but the overall theme would be for stronger CAA and W-NW winds late next week, with at least SCAs likely. Waves and seas were generally 1-2 ft and 2-4 ft (2-3 ft N and 3-4 ft across the NC coastal waters) respectively this afternoon. Waves and seas build to 3-4 ft and 4-6 ft respectively by Sun with seas potentially remaining elevated through Mon. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1213280 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:48 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 442 AM AST Fri Dec 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A building surface high over the western Atlantic will promote moderate northeasterly winds across the region for the next few days. These winds will push the remnants of an old frontal boundary across the islands. An upper-level jet just north of the region will promote favorable conditions aloft that will enhance shower and possible thunderstorm activity through Saturday. Cooler temperatures are expected from Sunday onwards. Hazardous seas across the Atlantic waters and life-threatening rip currents are expected to return on Sunday into early next week due to the arrival of a northerly swell. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday... Overnight, most of the rainfall activity stayed over the Atlantic and Caribbean waters, as well as passages. Nonetheless, some showers filtered across eastern Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra, leaving around 0.10 to 0.30 inches of rain. The rest of Puerto Rico, Saint Thomas, Saint John, and Saint Croix experienced calm weather conditions with little to no rain. The temperatures along the urban and coastal areas remained in the 70s, while in the mountainous/rural areas, they remained in the 60s throughout the night. The latest model guidance suggests an upper-level jet interacting with a trade wind perturbation and enhancing periods of rainfall activity throughout the day. However, we forecast the heaviest activity taking place this afternoon and evening, leading to a slight to moderate chance of observing flooding rains across portions of the islands. The jet maximum of approximately 50 to 60 knots will be moving across the region today into Sunday. The time- height series model suggests enough moisture extending from the surface to the mid-levels as well as the upper level. At this time, the forecast leans towards Friday(today) being the wettest day of the short term period. From Saturday onwards, we anticipate the introduction of a drier airmass and an advective tropical-winter weather pattern (sunshine/mostly clear skies and clouds with occasional showers embedded in the easterly winds) dominating PR and the USVI across the windward sections of PR and the USVI each day. Showers will then spread into the interior and western sections of PR during the afternoon. Therefore, we cannot rule out water ponding due to moderate to locally heavy rains in areas where these showers become frequent. The wind flow will gradually become from the north- northeast later today due to the influence of a high pressure exiting the eastern coast of the United States. This weather pattern will promote a cooler trend, with temperatures reaching below-normal values. .LONG TERM...Monday through Friday... A surface high pressure over the western Atlantic and a broad surface low developing in the central Atlantic, will promote moderate winds from the northeast through the workweek. As these systems strengthen over the waters, cooler and drier air will move into the area, resulting in lower temperatures during the overnight hours. A decrease in precipitable water (PWAT) content is forecasted from Monday onwards, with values fluctuating in general between 1.25 and 1.45 inches, just below climatology. Consequently, limited shower activity and stable weather conditions are expected for the New Year`s festivities. However, cooler air under northeasterly winds moving over warmer coastal waters may bring occasional passing showers along portions of north central and northeastern Puerto Rico and the USVI during the nighttime and early morning hours. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) All Tafs sites will experience mainly VFR conds with VCSH thru fcst period. SHRA anticipated at JSJ and possible TSRA at JBQ btw 16-22z that may cause brief MVFR conds. Winds will gradually shift from the ENE to NNE at 5-12 kts today. && .MARINE... A building surface high pressure over the Western Atlantic will yield gentle to moderate east to northeast winds. Increasing winds and a northerly swell generated by a surface low over the central Atlantic will arrive this weekend and deteriorate marine and coastal conditions once again. Small Craft Advisory conditions are anticipated across the Atlantic waters. The remnants of a frontal boundary pushed by the northeasterly winds and favorable environmental conditions will lead to scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms over the local waters today and on Saturday. && .BEACH FORECAST... A moderate risk of rip currents is expected to prevail across most north and east facing beaches of Puerto Rico, and across most beaches of the U.S. Virgin Islands through early Saturday. Life- threatening rip currents are expected once again across the north facing beaches of Puerto Rico from Fajardo to Rincon, and Culebra on Sunday and early next week due to a northerly swell. A low risk of rip currents is expected across the southern protected beaches of Puerto Rico. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1213279 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:48 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 334 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 334 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Broad surface ridging is holding across the eastern seaboard today, allowing light east flow to continue and temperatures to warm up into the upper 70s and low 80s. Some patchy fog and low stratus has developed early this morning under light flow, but will lift out by mid morning. This weekend, a trough digging into the southeastern US will develop a cold front that will sweep across the Gulf of Mexico Saturday night and into the Florida Peninsula by late Sunday. This will shunt the surface ridge south on Saturday, turning winds to southeasterly and southerly and allowing atmospheric moisture to increase. As a result, chances of showers will increase late Saturday through Sunday, with a few storms possible ahead of the frontal passage Sunday afternoon. With the trough staying well to the north of Florida, the cold front will lose a lot of its punch before reaching the forecast area, so temperatures are only expected to drop a few degrees Monday and Tuesday and will stay above normal for late December. By Tuesday, another shortwave will swing through the Ohio River Valley, supporting another cold front that will push into the area by Wednesday. While there will likely not be enough moisture ahead of this front to bring much of a chance of rain, modest northwest and north winds behind the front will allow temperatures to drop into the mid 40s to mid 50s Thursday morning, with highs Thursday afternoon topping out in the low 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 334 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Low stratus and some patchy fog is producing LIFR/IFR conditions across much of the area early this morning. The status and fog will lift out after sunrise, with mainly VFR conditions expected to return by 14-16z. && .MARINE... Issued at 334 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 High pressure will hold north of the waters today and tonight, favoring east winds less than 15 knots. Winds will turn to southeasterly and southerly on Saturday and Saturday night as the ridge shifts south ahead of an approaching cold front, with increased chances of showers and storms Saturday night and Sunday before the front moves through. Winds will briefly turn to northwesterly and northerly behind the front Sunday night, then will revert to southerly by Monday night and Tuesday as high pressure ridges across southern Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 315 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 No fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 81 66 81 66 / 20 20 20 40 FMY 82 66 81 66 / 20 20 30 40 GIF 83 66 82 66 / 30 20 30 30 SRQ 81 65 81 66 / 10 20 20 40 BKV 82 62 82 63 / 20 20 20 40 SPG 78 66 77 66 / 10 20 20 40 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1213278 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:15 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 211 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 133 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Key Messages: - Foggy Conditions expected this morning and again tonight - Well Above Normal Daytime Temperatures A weak boundary was draped along the coast extending northeast into Louisiana this morning and is expected to dissipate. Given the high surface moisture, light winds and dry conditions aloft, dense fog will be the result. Expect the fog to spread inland from the immediate coastal areas through daybreak. As the fog spreads inland, we will expand the dense fog advisory accordingly. The fog should burn off by mid morning revealing a mostly sunny and warm day across South Texas with max temps in the low to mid 80s. Foggy conditions are expected again tonight and should be more widespread impacting much of the coastal plains and brush country out to Laredo. Will likely need a dense fog advisory again tonight. The next mid-level trough and associated Pacific front will advance across the southern plains on Saturday. The tail end of this front will sweep across South Texas Saturday afternoon with winds shifting from the southwest to the northwest. The southwest winds ahead of the this boundary will allow temps to soar to well above normal reaching the mid 80s over most of the region which is 15 to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year. There is no appreciable chance for rain in the short term forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 133 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Key Messages: - Very warm temperatures to continue this weekend into Monday. - Strong cold front expected Tuesday. As the 500 mb low moves to the east the cold front moves through and the sfc low ends up in Arkansas. Precipitation stays off shore Saturday night into Sunday. The cold front washes out with the cooler air staying north of the Hill Country. Temperatures drop a bit from the Mid 80s on Saturday to the upper 70s-lower 80s Sunday. We get ridging Sunday night into Monday so that the high temperatures get much above normal with highs ranging lower 80s in the Victoria Crossroads to around 90s in the Rio Grande Plains Monday. Considering that the 75th percentile for the highs that day are running in the upper 80s to lower 90s, it won`t be surprising if LRD would be over 90F. However, the very warm temperatures look to be short lived, as the next cold front moves into the region Monday night into Tuesday. The front looks strong from a temperature stand point, with expected highs of ranging through the 70s on Tuesday. While the front, thermally, is strong there is a lot of dry air so no rain is expected on either the GFS or the ECMWF. The chances of rain on the NBM remain less than 10%. The cold air really sinks south, based on the position and strength of the sfc high (about 1033 mb in north/east Texas Thursday afternoon). Highs for Wednesday through Friday are lower to mid 60s, although the GFS and the CMC show 50s for highs on Friday and Saturday. Will stick with the current NBM as the GFS and CMC are in the NBM`s 10th percentile. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 At time of writing, skies are mostly clear with light and variable winds across the region tonight. With ample moisture and the aforementioned calm winds, low CIGs and patchy to areas of dense fog are expected to develop, therefore reducing VSBYs. VCT and locations along the immediate coast are already reporting fog. Short-term model guidance continues to hint at the possibility of IFR/LIFR conditions forming late tonight and continuing into early Friday morning from the Coastal Plains eastward, with the latest SREF probabilities suggesting a low to medium chance (30-60%) of VSBYs less than 1 mile. Conditions will gradually improve back to VFR by Friday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 133 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Areas of dense fog will persist through mid morning before dissipating. A weak onshore flow will develop today and persist through Saturday. A Pacific cold front will move off the coast Saturday night with light north winds developing in its wake. Onshore winds return Sunday Night becoming moderate on Monday. A strong cold front will move off the coast Tuesday with a moderate to strong northeast flow Tuesday night and Wednesday. Winds, becoming weak to moderate by Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 81 66 83 55 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 80 61 83 50 / 0 0 10 0 Laredo 82 62 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 83 63 86 51 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 76 64 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 83 61 87 49 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 82 65 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 74 67 78 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ245- 342>347-442-443-447. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ231-232- 236-237-250-255. && $$ |
| #1213276 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 114 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 115 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 LIFR conditions will prevail through at least 14Z at the northeast FL terminals, with periods of VLIFR likely during the predawn and early morning hours on Friday as ceilings continue to lower, with drizzle and dense fog expanding to the northeast FL terminals before sunrise. IFR ceilings will prevail overnight at SSI, with conditions then deteriorating to LIFR and possibly VLIFR after shortly after sunrise as drizzle and fog expand northward over coastal southeast GA. Showers will begin to move onshore along coastal northeast FL after sunrise, with light showers expected at SGJ by the mid to late morning hours. Confidence was too low to indicate anything other than vicinity shower coverage at the Duval County terminals and GNV during the late morning and afternoon hours on Friday. Shower coverage will then shift northward over coastal southeast GA during the late afternoon and early evening hours, with onset of light rainfall expected after 20Z at SSI. Ceilings and visibilities will slowly improve outside of shower activity on Friday afternoon, with a brief period of low MVFR ceilings of 1,000-1,500 feet possible after 19Z at the northeast FL terminals. However, IFR ceilings will likely redevelop at the regional terminals after sunset early on Friday evening. Northerly surface winds sustained at 10-15 knots will continue through around sunrise at the SGJ and SSI coastal terminals, with speeds at the inland terminals mostly remaining in the 5-10 knot range. Surface winds will then gradually veer to northeasterly towards noon and then easterly towards sunset on Friday evening, with diminishing speeds forecast after 01Z Saturday. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 139 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 ...AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING... Low overcast skies, drizzle, patchy fog and temps in the 50s/60s have locked in for much of the day across SE GA and most of NE FL, except for Marion County where sunny breaks in the clouds have pushed temps into the 70s. A weak shortwave aloft in the Westerly flow has triggered some light rain showers area-wide, but these are expected to decrease in coverage late this afternoon and evening. The focus will shift to southerly flow in the lower levels, which is currently over-running the cool N-NE surface winds on the west side of the inverted coastal trough over the Atlantic waters off of the NE FL/SE GA coast. The breezy N-NE winds with this feature are expected to diminish somewhat tonight as the coastal trough weakens and this will set the stage for the already low overcast skies to lower through the evening hours to only a couple hundred feet off the ground after midnight. This combined with the increase moisture from the southerly boundary layer right overtop of the cool temps at this surface will likely lead to areas of dense fog development across most of NE FL and portions of coastal SE GA and into the cooler nearshore Atlantic waters. Dense fog advisories may be required later on tonight and will likely linger well into the Friday morning hours. Min temps will only fall slightly tonight in this current weather pattern with lows in the upper 40s across far inland SE GA and into the 50s for all other locations. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 139 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 High pressure ridging covers the area for the next couple of days bringing in winds out of the northeast Friday morning, shifting to easterly by the afternoon and becoming southeasterly Saturday as central high pressure over the north east moves out over the Atlantic. Onshore flow along with PWAT values of 1-1.4" increases the chance for coastal showers beginning Friday morning of 10-25%. Showers will begin to make their way inland in the afternoon with the highest chances of 20-25% occurring nearest the coast. High daytime temperatures over southeast Georgia will be in the upper 60s to low 70s with temperatures sticking in the 70s over northeast Florida. Overnight, areas at the coast could still see some sprinkles with temperatures generally in the upper 50s to low 60s area wide. Saturday, rain chances return in the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front out of the northwest. A 10% chance of rain chances begin over Southeast Georgia north of HWY-84 in the morning, pushing south and east into northeast Florida in the afternoon increasing to 20-30% across the area. Daytime temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s, possibly reaching into the 80s in some locations. Rain continues overnight Saturday with lows in the low 60s area wide. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 139 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 Heavier rainfall and possible isolated storms are expected Sunday as an upper level trough provides more instability to the area as a cold front passes through. High pressure fills in behind the front Monday, with another round of rain chances beginning Tuesday morning through the afternoon mainly over southeast Georgia as another front pushes through the area. Winds shift offshore behind the front leaving the rest of the week with any chances for rain below 5%. Temperatures will remain above normal until after the frontal passage Tuesday, dropping temperatures below normal by the end of the week. Daytime highs will be in the 70s area wide until midweek when daytime temperatures cool behind the frontal passage into the 60s over most of the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 139 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 Winds and seas remain elevated this evening as a coastal trough is in place over the offshore waters with SCA flags for the SE GA waters and SCEC headlines for the NE FL waters, but a slight weakening in the winds is expected by Friday morning, which will lead to the formation of dense fog in the nearshore waters late tonight and likely continue into Friday. This weekend the winds come around to the southeast and south ahead of the next cold front but lingering elevated seas near SCEC levels are expected. The cold front is forecast to move across the area Sunday night. Lesser winds and seas are expected early next week as weak high pressure builds into the region. Rip Currents: Solid Moderate to High Risk of Rip Currents likely to continue through the end of the week and possibly into the weekend as surf/breakers remain at least in the 3-4 ft range, with a more likely decrease in rip current risk and surf/breakers for early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 67 58 76 61 / 10 10 30 40 SSI 67 58 71 60 / 20 20 20 30 JAX 72 59 77 61 / 30 20 20 30 SGJ 71 61 75 61 / 30 20 20 20 GNV 76 60 79 61 / 30 10 20 20 OCF 79 61 80 62 / 20 10 10 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EST early this morning for FLZ124-125-133-138. GA...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EST early this morning for GAZ154-166. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1213275 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 107 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 203 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 - Warm with a few showers through Saturday. The highest chance (30-40%) for rain is along the coast. - Our next cold front arrives Sunday night with a 40 to 50% chance of showers and a few lightning storms. - The forecast is dry and pleasant for New Year`s Eve plans, but the risk for cold weather impacts increases in early January. && .UPDATE... Issued at 938 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 Surface analysis and KMLB radar imagery indicate a surface trough or weak surface low across the local Atlantic waters. Isolated to scattered showers are forecast to continue across the waters and in vicinity of the I-95 corridor throughout the night. Have kept an isolated mention of lightning over the waters where model guidance suggests modest instability. Across the north, Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows glimpses of low stratus sliding toward the I-4 corridor beneath a layer of high cloud cover. Similar to recent nights, stratus is expected to gradually sink towards the surface. Overnight and early morning visibility reductions due to low stratus/ patchy fog are forecast across interior east central Florida, generally west of I-95. However, would not be surprised to see surface visibility reductions across portions of coastal Volusia and coastal Brevard as well. Morning low temperatures are forecast above seasonal values, mostly ranging the low to mid 60s. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 ----------Synoptic Overview---------- Early morning analysis revealed a relatively flat mid-level ridge over Florida with above-normal heights extending into the Canadian Maritimes. The flow becomes more zonal over the West, influenced by a 150+ KT Pacific jet impinging on the Northern California coast. Near the surface, high pressure remains anchored near Long Island and extends down the eastern side of the Appalachians, leaving a pronounced wedge of cool air from the Mid-Atlantic to the Florida Panhandle. Marine-modified northeast surface flow persists over the Florida Peninsula, and a plume of higher-than-normal moisture is present over the state and adjacent waters. A weak inverted surface trough remains immediately off our Atlantic coast. The mid-level ridge axis should move very little through Saturday, resting near or just east of Florida. Meanwhile, a pair of shortwaves in the Pacific jet are expected to carve out a trough over the Central Plains over the next 48 hours. Ensembles then push this trough toward the Ohio Valley on Sunday, forcing a cold front toward Florida. This front is forecast to quickly weaken as an unusually strong zonal jet develops over the western two-thirds of the U.S. early next week. By the middle of next week, a reservoir of above-normal heights is indicated by a propensity of members over Hudson Bay and Greenland. A ripple of energy in the zonal flow is projected to send another cold front across the state around New Year`s Day. In response to the increased blocking (-NAO) over the high latitudes, ensemble means suggest below-normal heights will overtake the eastern United States late next week. Combined with an eventual retraction of the Pacific Jet, a large swath of colder air is likely to overtake much of the nation in the opening days of January. One cluster of ensemble members delivers this colder air mass to Florida as early as next Thursday, while the other is somewhat later with the arrival, toward the following weekend. This general weather pattern may persist well into January. -------Sensible Weather & Impacts------- Now-Saturday... In association with the onshore flow, nearby trough, and ample moisture, showers remain in the forecast through this timeframe. The highest coverage is forecast along the coast through Friday (30- 40%), lessening to 10-20% nearly area-wide on Saturday. Max-member rainfall tallies off today`s HREF are all less than 2", so little/no excessive rainfall threat exists; areal averages are forecast to remain well under 1/2 inch. Lightning probabilities over land remain less than 20%. The unusually high moisture values in the boundary layer continue to leave us with a potential for fog where skies clear during the overnight period. We will monitor for any dense fog in the early morning hours. Temperatures will remain above normal, buoyed by milder overnight lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Highs of 80F or greater are most likely (50-70% chance) over the Greater Orlando area and points southward, away from the cooler coastline. Sunday-Monday... The next cold front continues to trend weaker and somewhat later on the latest suite of guidance. Maintained the 40-50% coverage of showers Sun/Sun night with a low chance for lightning. Convergence is limited, so the risk for strong storms still appears quite low as well. By Monday, ensemble-averaged surface winds reveal a split in the membership, with many GEFS members dissipating the front before it clears the peninsula (EPS members have a cleaner frontal passage). All guidance has trended slower, with low shower chances extending into Monday along the Treasure Coast. In either case, no significant cooling is forecast behind the front and temperatures should remain above normal through this timeframe. New Year`s Eve and Beyond... Model agreement remains fairly good through New Year`s Eve, with favorable weather for outdoor plans. Temperatures look warm, with mid 70s to low 80s during the day and 60s in the evening with no rain in the forecast. The next cold front is likely to approach the state on New Year`s Day, though there remains a split in the timing and intensity of this front. It still appears moisture-starved, so rain chances look minimal. The complex nature of the evolving weather setup over N America leads to low confidence in late-week impacts. While a cooling trend is likely, there is lagging consensus on when and whether sharply colder air makes its way down to Florida. From a pattern recognition perspective, there is an elevated risk for occasionally impactful wind chills and/or frost-freeze conditions sometime after Jan 2nd. Statistical guidance shows at least a 25% chance of temperatures reaching the 30s over a large portion of the district by next Friday morning (Jan 3rd). Long-range ensembles suggest this elevated risk of cold weather impacts continues through at least mid-January. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 High pressure remains northeast of the waters, and a weak inverted trough is situated just offshore of our coast. East to southeast winds freshen to locally 15-20 KT from Friday through the weekend beyond 20 nm, prompting a period of poor boating conditions with 4-6 FT seas. If winds prove only slightly stronger, Small Craft Advisories will be required for the offshore zones at some point tomorrow. Otherwise, nearshore seas 3-5 FT from now through the weekend with a moderate chop on the Intracoastal. Scattered to numerous showers are forecast through Friday, but lower rain coverage is expected on Saturday. A cold front arrives Sunday night or early Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 107 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Prevailing MVFR/IFR CIGs at all terminals overnight in stratus. VIS reductions included at LEE/VRB/FPR/SUA where fog has begun to develop. Stratus and fog gradually lift after sunrise becoming VFR into late morning and through the afternoon. Rounds of VCSH forecast at coastal terminals through the TAF period. TEMPOs at TIX/MLB at the top of the 06Z TAF package for VIS reductions in showers. VCSH expanding to most interior terminals around 17Z. North-northeast winds around 5-7 kts tonight veer east around 8-10 kts by the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 63 77 64 / 30 20 20 30 MCO 79 64 79 65 / 20 20 20 30 MLB 77 65 77 66 / 30 20 20 30 VRB 79 66 79 67 / 30 30 30 30 LEE 78 63 79 64 / 20 10 20 30 SFB 78 63 79 64 / 30 20 20 30 ORL 79 64 80 65 / 20 20 20 30 FPR 79 66 79 66 / 30 30 30 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1213274 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:15 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 113 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 111 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Today, the sub-tropical jet is expected to dip southwards over the region coupled with a weak shortwave that will zip across South Florida. At the same time, a diffuse surface boundary across the Florida Straits will gradually begin to retrograde. With the arrival of a deeper plume of moisture (1.5-1.7 inches precipitable water values) and a little bit of more moisture in the mid-levels, there is the potential for higher rain chances (30-40%) across northeastern portions of the region. While forecasted rain totals (QPF) currently suggest rainfall totals today less than an inch, HREF`s LPMM indicates the potential of heavier thunderstorm activity just offshore with the potential of 2-3 inches of total rainfall. While this remains the most probable scenario of how things play out (any thunderstorms remaining offshore over the best instability over the Gulfstream), if a thunderstorm was able to brush or move over land, some higher rainfall totals (2-3 inches) could be realized. On Saturday, the higher PWAT airmass is expected to linger which could continue the increased (30-40%) chance for showers through the first half of the weekend especially over far southern portions of the Florida peninsula and local waters. Expect maybe a couple rounds of rainfall on and off throughout Saturday with potential to continue into the evening hours. High temperatures are expected to reach the upper 70s to low 80s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 111 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 PWATs will remain elevated (1.5-1.7 inches) through Sunday which will likely lead to yet another day of periodic on and off rainfall, although chances will remain on the lower end overall (20-30%). A robust mid-latitude short-wave trough will traverse the mid-Atlantic and eastern US early next week, allowing drier air to work its way across South Florida, which will reduce rain chances and cloud coverage. A stray shower could still be possible during this time period mainly across eastern portions of the area, though dry conditions will prevail. A strong cold front may develop by the late week period next week and traverse the southeastern United States. With that being said, a notable disparity exists amongst long- range model guidance in regards to timing and strength of post-frontal cold-air advection, given that this event is about a week from occurring. Nonetheless, late next week seems to be our next shot at a cooler airmass. Temperatures remain seasonable through the long term period, with maximum temperatures generally reaching the upper 70s/lower 80s each afternoon. Overnight, expect low temperatures in the 60s/70s along the interior/east coast respectively. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 SCT to BKN MVFR ceilings this morning across the east coast metro with VCSH throughout the entire period. Easterly winds 5-10 kts this morning becoming 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts after 15Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 111 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Gentle to moderate easterly breeze expected today over most area waters with a fresh breeze developing over the Atlantic waters beginning this afternoon. Seas 2-3 ft in the Atlantic waters building to 3-5 ft through the day. Seas in the Gulf generally 2 ft or less. && .BEACHES... Issued at 111 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 There is a high risk of rip currents across all East Coast beaches due to increased easterly flow through at least Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 71 79 71 / 20 20 20 20 West Kendall 80 68 80 69 / 30 20 20 20 Opa-Locka 81 70 80 70 / 20 20 30 20 Homestead 79 71 80 70 / 30 20 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 78 71 77 71 / 20 30 30 20 N Ft Lauderdale 78 71 78 71 / 20 30 30 20 Pembroke Pines 82 71 82 71 / 20 20 30 20 West Palm Beach 79 70 78 70 / 30 30 30 20 Boca Raton 81 70 79 71 / 30 30 30 20 Naples 81 66 80 66 / 20 20 20 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1213273 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 101 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will reside inland today, while a coastal trough lingers offshore. The trough could shift inland Friday into Friday night. A cold front is expected to slowly push across the region this weekend into early next week. Another cold front could impact the area towards the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Early this morning: Radar imagery shows a deep feed of light to moderate rain sourced from offshore streaming northward across most of southeast SC. Surface analysis shows a well entrenched wedge of high pressure inland with a sharp inverted trough situated just offshore. The best feed of moisture is coincident with the south to north oriented inverted trough, and convergence within the trough is providing sufficient forcing to generate the near constant train of light to moderate rain we are currently seeing. Rainfall seems to be closely aligned to precipitable water values on the order of 1.25-1.50", which runs from the nearby coastal waters up through Colleton County and the Tri-County region. Through sunrise, this setup isn`t expected at all and model guidance suggests that we will continue to see light to moderate rain track across the same areas. The forecast has been adjusted to show near 100 percent rain chances for the next several hours across this area, with a gradually decrease into the 60 percent range through sunrise. There is a sharp gradient on the west side and southeast GA will likely see little to no rainfall at all. Temperatures will likely not change much from current values, and many locations have already hit the lows for the night. Overall, mid to upper 40s will be common. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Friday: Aloft, a ridge extending across the Southeast Coast will be slow to nudge offshore while a deep trough shifts across the Central United States towards the Ohio River Valley late day. At the sfc, high pressure will be in place across inland areas to start the day while a sharp coastal trough positioned offshore makes a push toward the coast late morning, then onshore during the afternoon. Ample moisture and isentropic lift will maintain cloudy conditions for much of the day and with the arrival of some rain/showers will likely limit high temps during the afternoon. In general, temps should peak in the upper 50s/lower 60s inland to mid-upper 60s along and south of I-16 across Southeast Georgia. Overnight, general model consensus suggests precip coverage to diminish, at least for a bulk of the night. However, weak h5 shortwave energy arrives from the west late and could produce few to scattered showers locally prior to daybreak. Temps will be noticeably more mild than the previous night, remaining in the mid-upper 50s (warmest along the coast). Saturday: Aloft, the axis of a ridge will become more displaced offshore while another push of h5 shortwave energy helps a trough dig across the Central United States and Lower-Middle Mississippi River Valley area. At the sfc, a warm front is expected to shift inland and/or north of the local area, causing a noticeable warming trend during the weekend while a southerly flow prevails well ahead of an eastern moving cold front entering the Deep South. Although some clouds remain during peak heating, warm air advection supports afternoon highs in the low-mid 70s. The bulk of deeper moisture remains west of the local area during the day and even through the first part of the night, but few to scattered showers remain in the forecast with a gradual uptick in precip chances late day and evening. After midnight, the outer fringes of h5 shortwave energy arrive with ample moisture (PWATs near 1.25 inches) supporting scattered to numerous showers prior to daybreak (highest precip chances inland. Overnight lows remain mild, generally in the low 60s with a persistent southerly wind through the night. Sunday: Aloft, the leading edge of stronger h5 shortwave energy arrives with a longwave trough shifting across the Ohio River Valley and toward the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast states. At the sfc, a cold front will slowly progress across the Deep South early, then eventually shift across the local area late day and overnight. Deep moisture characterized by PWATs near 1.5 inches along with a bit of instability developing with sfc temps peaking in the low-mid 70s should support a swath of numerous/widespread showers along with a few thunderstorms arriving across inland zones by late morning, then becoming more focused toward coastal areas and offshore late day and evening as the front progresses towards the Southeast Coast. Once fropa occurs, precip comes to an end from west to east during the second half of the night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front is expected to shift offshore Sunday night, putting an end to shower and/or thunderstorm activity late. High pressure will then prevail on Monday, but it will be short- lived as another quick- moving shortwave and associated sfc low shifts east from the Central United States. The sfc low will track across the Ohio River Valley or Great Lakes region and eventually into the Northeast, bringing the next cold front through the area, likely Tuesday night into Wednesday. Deeper moisture seems to be lacking with fropa, so shower potential is more limited. High pressure will build in on Wednesday following fropa with noticeably cooler temps arriving during the second half of the week as a large longwave trough shifts across the East Conus. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... KCHS/KJZI: The 06z TAF period begins with a steady feed of light to moderate rain across the terminals that looks like it will continue through mid to late morning. Though conditions improved over the last few hours into the VFR range, we expect IFR conditions will return and likely stick around into the early afternoon. A surface trough will shift inland late this afternoon and into the evening, which will allow for VFR conditions to return and winds will turn to become southeasterly. KSAV: IFR conditions are in place to begin the 06z TAF period and the terminal is just to the west of ongoing light rain. Conditions should remain dry, other than an occasional passing shower through sunrise. IFR conditions are expected to linger into early afternoon. MVFR ceilings could then stick around through 06z Saturday, but there is some potential for improvement to VFR near the end as winds turn southeasterly. Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions in low clouds and showers are possible at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals Saturday afternoon and night, then become more likely with the arrival of showers and/or thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday night as a cold front passes through the region. Prevailing VFR conditions are then expected Monday. && .MARINE... Tonight: A pinched gradient will persist between a strong inland wedge and an inverted trough near the western wall of the Gulf Stream. As is typical in a wedging regime, the trough will not be able to penetrate across the cooler shelf waters. Thus we maintain N-NE winds of 15-25 kt and gusty over the Atlantic, which in turns allows for elevated seas up to 6 or 7 feet to continue. As a result, we maintain the ongoing Small Craft Advisories for all Atlantic waters. Charleston Harbor will not have any advisory, but N-NE winds will still be around 10-15 kt. There is no mention of fog in the forecast, but given low stratus building down, and periods of rain, there will be some minor reductions in visibilities down under 3 nm at time. Friday through Tuesday: High pressure will hold inland while a sharp coastal trough is positioned offshore, favoring a pressure gradient supportive of Small Craft Advisories across a majority of local waters into Friday. However, winds/seas will trend lower with time as the coastal trough makes a push onshore Friday afternoon, likely allowing Small Craft Advisories to end across all nearshore waters during the day. Seas near 6 ft hold on longer across outer Georgia waters, supporting a Small Craft Advisory into early Saturday morning. Winds/seas could ramp up again prior to and near a passing cold front Sunday and Sunday night, supporting additional Small Craft Advisories across outer Georgia waters and nearshore waters off the Charleston County Coast. Weak high pressure and relatively benign conditions are then expected for Monday behind the front and for Tuesday ahead of another cold front arriving late Tuesday. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ350-352. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for AMZ354. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Saturday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1213272 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1255 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to build in from the north through Friday. The high will shift offshore Friday night through this weekend. A strong cold front will bring unsettled weather Sunday into early Monday. High pressure briefly builds back into the area Monday night, and a quick moving frontal system will bring rain showers back to the region late Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 945 PM Thu...No significant changes needed to previous forecast for late eve update, minor tweaks to reflect current trends. At the surface, Canadian high pressure remains wedged along the Atlantic coast while weak surface troughing lingers offshore. Offshore trough will slowly inch towards the coast overnight as the surface high begins to give way to a wave of low pressure fueled by a much more amplified shortwave forecast to be lifting across the MS River Valley overnight. At a minimum, the trough will bring an increase in low-level cloudiness along the coast. While sct showers beginning to develop over SE NC, with the boundary over offshore waters and the shortwave passing well the W. Increased cloud cover and added a sc shower mention across the sw portions of the area. Lows moderate slightly overnight thanks to weak low level moisture advection. Overnight lows remain above freezing across the coastal plain, with 40s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... As of 1515 Thursday...While high pressure continues to ridge down the lee of the Appalachians Friday, a coastal trough will sharpen and drift onshore as the center of the high shifts east off the Mid-Atlantic coast. With ample moisture in the low levels, this will be enough for widely scattered showers to develop in the vicinity of the coastal trough axis/coastal front. The axis/front will struggle to move much farther inland than the Pamlico Sound, which will keep precip chances confined to the Outer Banks for most of Friday. One other factor at play Friday will be the moisture advection and overrunning precip chances from South Carolina northward through central NC. Forecast guidance is mixed on whether any showers will trek far enough east to reach the eastern coastal plain counties, and given the uncertainty along with upper level ridging overhead, will opt to keep conditions dry there for now on Friday. A decent temperature range is likely across the forecast area as some CAD influence may keep the coastal plain in the mid 50s, while areas along the coast see highs in the low 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 3 PM Thurs... KEY MESSAGES *Widely scattered showers possible Friday night and Saturday, otherwise it will be dry with above normal conditions *A strong cold front will move through the area Sunday into Monday morning, and has the potential to bring rain, strong winds, and severe weather to Eastern NC *Another quick shot of rain likely late Tuesday into Wednesday morning, with conditions likely turning much colder the rest of next week Friday Night and Saturday...As high pressure shifts offshore Saturday and southerly flow develops, the remnant coastal trough will pivot farther inland, and may help promote additional widely scattered light shower development. Low level heights will soar Saturday, but partly to at times mostly cloudy skies will limit highs from rising past the upper 60s to low 70s. Sunday and Monday...A potent upper level trough will move out of the Tennessee Valley early Sunday while a surface low deepens across the Ohio Valley. As the upper trough heads east Sunday, it will likely take on a negative tilt, and allow for deep warm air advection to develop across the Carolinas. This will swing a slow moving but potentially strong cold front through the area late Sunday into early Monday. Forecast confidence continues to increase, and have raised PoPs to 60-80%, and expanded thunder chances to include the entire forecast area as the WAA out ahead of the front taps into and advects northward Gulf of Mexico and Tropical Atlantic air. It`s still too early to say what kind of severe weather threat will accompany this front, but early indications and pattern recognition would say there is some higher end severe potential with this system, if all the ingredients can come together. The front should clear the coast by Monday morning, and high pressure moving in behind it will lead to above normal conditions continuing Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday...A quick moving frontal system will zip across the Eastern US on Tuesday, and bring a shot of light rain to the Carolinas from late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Behind this system conditions will begin to turn much colder for the rest of next week as strong and cold high pressure builds in. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 06Z Sat/... As of 1255 AM Fri...Widespread MVFR remains entrenched over eastern NC this morning with low-level WAA associated with sharpening troughing offshore overrunning a cool high pressure wedge at the surface. LAMP guidance has trended more pessimistically with duration of lower cigs and is in line with more aggressive hi-res guidance, pointing to prevailing MVFR through the rest of the night. After sunrise, cigs will scatter about but some bounces between VFR and MVFR are likely through the afternoon. Forecast for tonight is low confidence and is dependent on how strong and expansive the surface wedge will be. IFR or worse cigs are likely on the cool side of this boundary, and some of the more aggressive guidance has this extending into the inner coastal plain. For now, leaned the forecast on the more conservative side after 00z Sat but trends will need to be monitored closely through the day. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 3 PM Thurs...Conditions should be mostly VFR through Saturday with high pressure over the area. A weak coastal trough may bring some low end VFR or MVFR ceilings to the coast at times late this week. By late Sunday, increasing rain chances ahead of a cold front may bring some sub-VFR conditions to the region through Monday morning. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 945 PM Thu...Latest obs show moderate to strong NNE winds 15-25 kt gusting 25-30 kt across the warmer outer central and southern waters, with seas 3-6 ft. High pressure remains anchored along the Atlantic seaboard while weak troughing remains offshore. The resultant gradient is keeping northeasterly winds elevated over the waters, felt most over the Gulf Stream where mixing is strongest. The gradient will not ease much through the period. Compared to yesterday, stronger winds are favored to linger slightly longer into the evening hours and have extended the SCA to through Friday morning for the waters south of Oregon Inlet. Shower activity associated with the coastal trough/front increases overnight and Friday, but is expected to remain thunder free. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 3 PM Thurs...Decent boating conditions will exist until Sunday when winds increase ahead of a cold front. Winds on Friday will let down to NE 10-20 kts, and then by Friday night will veer to the SE at 10-15 kts as high pressure shifts offshore. A slow moving cold front will approach Sunday and winds will increase ahead of it to at least S 15-25 kts, but will be highest over the warmer coastal waters where Gale Force gusts are possible. Behind the cold front Monday morning winds will turn to the WNW at 10-15 kts. Seas will remain mostly 3-5 ft through Saturday before increasing to 4-7 ft Sunday. Seas will continue to build Sunday night to 6-8 ft, and then slowly subside Monday to 4-6 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ156-158. && $$ |
| #1213271 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:54 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1247 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and dry weather is expected again today. Clouds increase tonight through Friday, with occasional light rain developing over the Virginia piedmont Friday afternoon and evening. Temperatures warm back to above normal this weekend, as a more unsettled weather pattern returns. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 945 PM EST Thursday... Forecast in good shape. Much of the area remains clear except the far south being impacted by high cloud. This has allowed temps to drop into the low-mid 30s across much of the area. With these clear skies persisting for much of the night, will keep lows generally in the mid 20s in the Piedmont, 95 corridor and MD Eastern Shore, and lower to mid 30s closer to the coast. As of 320 PM EST Thursday... Key Message: - Seasonable tonight with lows mainly in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Latest analysis shows ~1036 mb surface high pressure still in place and centered from the Saint Lawrence Valley and interior New England, ridging south into to the Mid-Atlantic and down the Eastern Seaboard. Aloft, an upper ridge is moving across the Mid-Atlantic, while a digging shortwave trough moves through the SW, setting up the next system for the area. High pressure will remain in place through Fri with a strong inversion of cool CAD/wedged air. Mid-level cloudiness has thinned, leaving high clouds across the area, clearing into the overnight. Temps overnight will be very similar to last night, with lows in the mid to upper 20s (SE VA/NE NC slightly warmer with lows in the mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM EST Thursday... Key Message: - Increasing cloud cover Fri with cloudy and cool conditions for most of the area, moderate temperatures along SE coast. - Spotty light rain and cooler conditions inland Friday night and Saturday. Mainly cloudy, with warming trend continuing along the coast. - Multiple frontal systems will pass through the area bringing chances of rain. The best chance of rain is from Sunday through Sunday night, when precipitation amounts could exceed 0.50" across much of the area. The upper level ridge will weaken and slowly move offshore on Fri, as the surface level high lingers around the NE coast allowing CAD/wedge to develop along the eastern seaboard. Recent model guidance is hinting to a stronger CAD event with the cool air lingering around the Piedmont. It`s important to note that the models do not have a good understanding on how the wedge performs and tend to under perform. This being said, have leaned towards the NAM guidance, rather than NBM, keeping high temps Fri in the mid 40s for the majority of the region and Sat in the upper 40s in the Piedmont to upper 60s in the SE VA/NE NC. As we saw with a similar, albeit stronger, CAD airmass earlier in the month, it does not take much overrunning moisture to result in persistent spotty showers and cooler than otherwise expected temps. Overnight, lows Fri will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s and lows Sat will be warmer, with lingering wedged air towards the Piedmont with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s towards the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 245 PM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Milder temperatures are expected through at least Tuesday. - A cold front will bring the chance for rain showers from later Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Dry weather and cooler temperatures return for Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Milder temps are expected for Mon and Tue. Dry weather will prevail for Mon aftn (behind an exiting front) into early Tue aftn, before another cold front approaches and pushes across the area and off the coast later Tue aftn through Wed morning. That front will bring the chance for rain showers. Dry weather and cooler temps will return for Wed aftn through Thu. Highs will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s Mon and Tue, range through the 50s Wed, and in the mid 40s to lower 50s Thu. Lows will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s Mon night, range through the 40s Tue night, and mainly in the lower to mid 30s Wed night. This is my (Timothy Gingrich) last official discussion for the NWS Wakefield, as I will be retiring as of Saturday, December 28th after 35 years as a forecaster in the NWS. Thank you to all my colleagues and co-workers for their shared knowledge, help, and friendship throughout my career. You all have made my experience enjoyable and bearable in some tough times, both professionally and personally. Thank you again. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1245 AM EST Friday... Stratocu have developed both across the Piedmont and as a marine layer pushing onshore with MVFR CIGs (~2500 ft). The clouds have already moved over SBY with ECG on the edge of the thicker cloud cover. As such, expect these clouds to push farther onshore into early this morning with MVFR CIGs reaching ECG and potentially ORF/PHF. However, confidence is lower at ORF and especially PHF and therefore have gone with a TEMPO for ORF from 9-13z. Models generally suggest that CIGs improve after sunrise to mainly VFR, however, some models (notably the RAP) suggest that the MVFR CIGs linger through the day as they gradually push inland. Otherwise, cloud cover increases through the day Fri with lowering CIGs and fog possible Fri night (highest confidence across the Piedmont). Outlook: This weekend, as high pressure moves offshore, a warm front will push north through the area bringing chances of rain Sat with rain likely on Sunday, as a cold front moves through the area. A few embedded thunderstorms are also possible Sunday. Degraded conditions are possible Friday night through Sunday between low CIGs, fog, and rain. Dry/VFR conditions return Mon, as high pressure builds in from the W. && .MARINE... As of 315 PM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Relatively benign conditions continue through Saturday. - The next chance of SCA conditions arrives Sunday with increasing southerly winds. High pressure dominates the local weather pattern through Fri with winds remaining generally steady through Fri before diminishing to 5-10 kt and becoming SE Fri night behind a warm front lifting N. S winds remain light Sat before increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt Sat night. Winds continue to increase to 15-25 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt Sun into Sun night ahead of an approaching low pressure system and associated cold front. Confidence continues to increase in SCA conditions during this timeframe. Widespread showers with embedded storms move across the local waters Sun into Sun evening ahead of and along the aforementioned cold front. Gusty winds are possible with the line of showers along the cold front as 925mb winds increase to 45-55+ kt. Winds become W behind the cold front Mon. Will note that a brief period of gusty W winds is possible behind the cold front as well depending on how strong the low pressure and associated CAA becomes. High pressure builds in early next week with an unsettled pattern developing around New Year`s Day. Waves and seas were generally 1-2 ft and 2-4 ft (2-3 ft N and 3-4 ft across the NC coastal waters) respectively this afternoon. Waves and seas build to 3-4 ft and 4-6 ft respectively by Sun with seas potentially remaining elevated through Mon. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1213270 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:54 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1248 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will ridge across the Carolinas from the north, while a weak coastal trough develops and moves inland Friday. This trough will push inland Friday night into Saturday, allowing for a warming trend through the weekend. A cold front will move through the area Sunday into early Monday and increase rain chances. A second, weaker cold front will cross the area on Tuesday, bringing a modest chance for rain. && .UPDATE... Scattered showers continue across the area, with the next round currently moving through Georgetown and Williamsburg counties. Only minor tweaks made to temps and pops to account for current observations. 6z aviation discussion below. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... High pressure remains centered north of NY State and will continue to do so through the period while extending a ridge axis into the Carolinas. The resulting NE surface based layer will become increasingly overrun by moisture in a SW flow regime. A healthy and saturated inversion forms as a result, though not likely to the extend portrayed in WRF soundings. The overrunning could lead to some very light rain late tonight into Friday but given that moisture remains confined to the lower layers and that saturation is lacking in the -10 to -20 layer feel that the op models and even some of the blends are too high and have capped POPs at 35 percent, highest inland. Granted, confidence is pretty low regarding the eventual coverage of rainfall as models have not initialized well with the current ongoing light precip in far southern zones. Tomorrow`s high temperature forecast is tricky as it will hinge upon how far close a coastal trough/warm front manages to approach the coast. Could easily see the I-95 corridor behind 10 degrees cooler than the coast even though the boundary remains offshore. Trimmed a few degrees off forecast highs in deference to some of the cooler solutions that honor the wedge a bit more than the warmer solutions. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Ridge axis should be offshore by Friday night, while shortwave energy over the Plains quickly traverses over towards the Great Lakes region by Saturday morning. The Carolinas are caught between the ridge offshore, and another deepening trough that starts to move through the Mid South. This helps to increase southwesterly winds aloft, bringing more moisture into the fold. Meanwhile, surface high pressure over the Atlantic continues to bring in lighter SSE winds in the low-levels, which also promotes a moistening atmosphere. Isentropic lift looks slightly deeper in this forecast cycle, generally within the 290-300K layer. This brings an increase in rain chances throughout the day Saturday, especially as the coastal trough moves inland. Rainfall totals still don`t look impressive here, with parts of the Pee Dee region seeing a tenth of an inch at best. Highs Saturday reach up into the lower 70s, feeling rather muggy for late December. Coastal trough continues to push inland Saturday night, acting as a warm front to funnel more southerly flow into the area. Rain chances start to tick up more from west to east ahead of a cold front. Lows Saturday night only dip down into the upper 50s, some 5-10 degrees warmer than the previous night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cold front moves through Sunday, accompanied by a couple of trough axes that sweep through the Carolinas. This brings a nice marriage of upper forcing and increased moisture, creating the best rain chances we`ll see in the long term forecast. Rainfall amounts generally linger in the 0.50-1.00" range, which unfortunately won`t touch the D1 drought (Moderate Drought) going on across much of the area. Highs Sunday look to be about a degree or two cooler than Saturday, due to clouds and rain. Stable air in the low levels keeps the instability quite limited, meaning that any thunder would be elevated. Even so, 95 percentile MLCAPE values don`t look particularly impressive, so I`ve kept thunder out of the forecast entirely (this reminds me of the December 11 frontal system in this respect, though the dynamics are nowhere near as impressive). Front moves offshore Sunday night, but there`s not much in the way of cold air advection behind it. In fact, upper flow looks rather zonal (or at least, quasi-zonal) through most of the extended period at this point. Exceptions include a weak shortwave that moves through the Ohio River Valley Tuesday, which may bring a couple showers. Better looking shortwave moves through on Thursday, but this one appears moisture-starved. Above-normal temperatures continue through Wednesday, with near or below-normal temperatures returning by Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Current MVFR stratus deck of 1500 ft over the Cape Fear region, impacting KILM, will linger for (at least) a few more hours. May see brief periods of improvement during pre-dawn hours. Low ceilings are expected to develop across most of the area, particularly northeast SC, by dawn, with ceilings potentially lowering to IFR across inland terminals by midday. Conditions improve near the coast this afternoon as coastal trough begins to slowly move onshore. Inland NE SC, including KFLO, has the greatest chance of remaining sub-VFR throughout TAF period (once low ceilings develop by morning). Keeping an eye on IFR fog potential tonight/Saturday morning, west of the inland moving coastal front. Northeast winds during the day today turn southeasterly tonight. Scattered light showers through morning will shift to west of I-95 this afternoon. Extended Outlook...Scattered showers possible Saturday and rain likely on Sunday, possibly including isolated thunderstorms. MVFR possible. && .MARINE... Through Friday...High pressure well to the north has brought a long period of NE winds and it will continue to do so tonight wind winds and waves rather steady state. Some improvement slated for tomorrow as a coastal trough/warm front approaches and the gradient eases. Wind speed is to drop by about a category. The short period wind waves will be slow to respond however. Friday Night through Tuesday...ESE winds gradually veer throughout the weekend, becoming southerly by Sunday. Pressure gradient increases at this point, due to an approaching cold front. Sustained winds increase to 18-20 kts, and seas build from 2-4 ft up to 3-6 ft. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory is possible Sunday. Front moves through Sunday night, and winds veer westerly by Monday, and the gradient loosens considerably. Varying wind direction Monday becomes southwesterly on Tuesday, ahead of another, weaker front. Seas drop down to 2-4 ft Monday through Tuesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1213269 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:54 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1150 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 842 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Starting to see some shallow convection develop west of a line from Thibodaux to Plaquemine, moving almost due northward. This is well ahead of main convection that will approach the area around or after midnight. 00z soundings around the region are supportive of overnight convection, especially regarding shear parameters. Have adjusted hourly PoP, temperature, dew point trends to fit evening observations. This essentially bumps low temperatures up a couple degrees in some areas and raises precipitation chances in the west. Updated ZFP will be issued shortly after the top of the hour, along with the usual CWF evening update. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 254 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 The highly progressive 500mb pattern will remain in place through Saturday night, and this will lead to continued unsettled weather across the forecast area through the entire short term period as a series of fast moving shortwave troughs slides through the region. The first of these features is currently ejecting out of east Texas and into the Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon into tonight. Strong deep layer forcing has combined with sufficient instability to produce a broken line of thunderstorms across east Texas and western Louisiana this afternoon. This line, and the best dynamics, will shift to the northeast as the trough axis takes on a highly negative tilt in response to a strong jet streak ejecting out of the base of the trough. The end result will be the majority of the thunderstorm activity shifting to the north of the forecast area tonight. However, some of the weakening thunderstorm activity could push into northern and western portions of the forecast area late this evening into the overnight hours. This reflected by higher PoP in these areas as compared to parts of the forecast area closer to the coast. For these areas that will see lower PoP, the main forecast concern tonight will be fog development as onshore flow advects a warm and humid airmass over the cooler nearshore waters. Boundary layer flow should prohibit widespread dense fog development, but patchy dense fog is likely to occur at times late tonight into early tomorrow. The next southern stream shortwave trough will quickly follow on the heels of the previous system and will also eject out of east Texas and through the Lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow afternoon and evening. The initial line of convection will be dissipated by the late morning hours, but another round of thunderstorms should start to fire up along the remnant outflow boundary from the previous convection across portions of the Northshore and Mississippi Coast in the afternoon hours. A review of model soundings on the Mississippi coast indicate a marginal environment for strong to severe thunderstorm activity due to moderately unstable mid-level lapse rates and bulk shear of 30 to 40 knots. The end result is that an isolated strong to severe storm could form tomorrow afternoon for areas east of I-55 and north of I-10, but the probabilities of occurrence are low. Friday night into Saturday will see a brief period of increased ridging build in, and this will be conducive to more widespread dense fog development. Boundary layer winds will be 15 to 20 knots from the south-southwest, and this is a very conducive pattern for dense sea fog to move onshore and spread far inland. The fog will linger into the mid-morning hours on Saturday, but rapid clearing is expected in the late morning as a highly dynamic upper level trough and associated surface front begin to approach the area. A look at the jet structure of this system indicates that the forecast area will be placed in a highly favorable environment to support both deep layer forcing and high shear values. Effective bulk shear will approach 50 knots and helicity values in the lowest 3km will exceed 200 m2/s2. Additionally, cooling aloft associated with this deeper trough will allow mid-level lapse rates to approach 7.0 C/km. All of these parameters will support the development of deep and persistent convection, including the development of supercells. Parameters are highest and most favorable for supercell development across the Florida Parishes and Southwest Mississippi. The parameters currently peak in the mid to late afternoon hours, and this currently looks like the most favored time for severe weather to occur in the forecast area. The main message is to be prepared for severe storms including tornadoes on Saturday as the timing of the system could shift between now and Saturday. The severe threat will diminish Saturday night as the strongest forcing shifts to the northeast toward the Tennessee Valley and the surface front slides through the area. The storm threat will completely end with the passage of the front, and temperatures will also begin to cool as a Pacific based airmass moves into the area. Additionally, although the front is moving through the area, there could be a brief window for additional fog development in coastal areas Saturday evening before frontal passage occurs. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday night) Issued at 254 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 A largely zonal flow regime will be in place in the mid and upper level next week. At the same time, subsidence in the wake of the departing trough axis Saturday night will remain in place on Sunday as a surface ridge slides through the region. This will help to dry out the atmosphere and limit cloud development. Overall, Sunday will be a very pleasant day with temperatures near to slightly warmer than average beneath mostly sunny skies. The ridge will slip to the east on Monday, but very dry air will linger in the mid-levels. This will keep conditions clear and dry with little change in temperatures. By Tuesday and Wednesday, increasing model spread takes hold between the GFS and ECMWF. The GFS has a stronger southern stream system move through over this time period with higher rain chances, but the ECMWF keeps the area dry as any troughing remains displaced well to the north of the region. Given the extended time period and high degree of uncertainty, have opted to stick with the NBM solution for New Years Eve and Day. This brings some light rain through the area early on Tuesday, but clearing skies and improved conditions are expected by Wednesday in the wake of a passing front. Temperatures should also cool to more average values as northwest flow takes hold. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Most terminals with IFR or lower conditions, mainly ceilings, at forecast issuance time. Wind speeds have been stronger tonight than last night, which has held fog at bay across most terminals. There have been some isolated warm advection showers across the area, which has actually improved ceilings somewhat. Boundary to our west remains west of a Vicksburg to Lafayette line, with a band of TSRA in advance of it. There`s been a significant break in coverage to the west of KBTR, so it may be quite a few more hours before there`s a significant threat at KBTR or KMCB, possibly beyond 09z. Most of the convection allowing models continue to weaken the current convection, with very little reaching Interstate 55. Some potential for a new area of convection to break out to the east of that during the afternoon on Friday, and will carry TSRA at KGPT during late morning and afternoon. Overall, most terminals will remain IFR or lower overnight tonight, improving to MVFR ceilings by late morning. While there may be a brief period with no flight restrictions during the afternoon, it would be a limited period, before conditions deteriorate again Friday night. && .MARINE... Issued at 254 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Lingering fog over the middle of Lake Pontchartrain has prompted for an early issuance of a dense fog advisory for the lake this afternoon. This is due to continued favorable conditions for more fog development over the lake and nearshore waters tonight. Fog will be a concern for the waters tomorrow night as well as conditions will be little changed. Outside of the fog threat, winds will be around 15 to 20 knots tonight and exercise caution wording has been added to the forecast. Otherwise, a lighter gradient flow will keep winds below 15 knots and seas below 3 feet through the weekend and into early next week. This is true despite a front moving through the waters Saturday night. Little in the way of cold air advection is expected with this front, so no downward transport of winds aloft over the waters is expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 61 74 61 73 / 90 60 40 70 BTR 65 76 63 75 / 80 50 30 70 ASD 63 75 62 73 / 40 40 30 70 MSY 64 76 65 74 / 30 30 30 70 GPT 62 70 62 70 / 40 50 40 70 PQL 61 72 62 72 / 40 50 40 70 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for GMZ530-534. MS...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for GMZ534. && $$ |
| #1213268 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:54 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1142 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Ceilings will remain in the MVFR to IFR range overnight and will continue into the day on Friday. Scattered showers and storms will be possible by late Friday morning through the afternoon hours, which may briefly lower ceilings/visibilities. Ceilings will lower to LIFR late Friday night behind the storms. The development of sea fog is expected Friday night for Mobile Bay, Mississippi Sound, and the adjacent Gulf waters, which may impact the terminals located closest to the water. BFM and JKA terminals have the best potential to be socked in with LIFR ceilings and LIFR to IFR visibilities starting around roughly 02z. 07/mb && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1106 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Saturday) Issued at 959 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 The latest Mid Level Water Vapor IR band as of 04z indicates that a potent upper level low pressure system continues to lift northeast through the Arklatex this evening with a notable shortwave ejecting through the base of the trough allowing it to take on a pronounced negative tilt. This feature will continue to lift northeast into the Mid South tonight. Latest surface observations also as of 04z reflect a 1006 mb surface low nearly stacked beneath the mid/upper level low. This feature also continues to lift northeast and will traverse across Arkansas and east of the Mississippi to the north of Memphis by Friday morning. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms has developed along surface trough that extends from the surface low south across western Louisiana into the upper Texas coast. Storm organization has been aided by ample shear as a 70kt+ mid level jet and observed 50kt+ low level jet overspread much of Louisiana and Mississippi and points north into the Mid South. A warm front was also observed stretching from the Arklatex low southeast across Louisiana from near Shreveport to just north of the New Orleans metro then offshore roughly 20nmi south of the Alabama coast. This warm front should continue to gradually lift northward in response to the strong low level flow in advance of the approaching system. Latest 04z mesoanalysis indicates that a moisture rich airmass represented by 335-340K theta-e continues to advect inland from the northern Gulf. This moisture rich airmass should eventually overspread much of southeast Mississippi and coastal Alabama late tonight into tomorrow morning. The line of storms will gradually begin to weaken and slow their eastward progression as the upper trough begins to shift northeast and away from our forecast area by tomorrow morning. Despite the improving thermodynamic environment with SBCAPES rising quickly above 1000j/km by mid morning Friday, the lack of mid level height falls (in fact even height rises) should result in limited large scale ascent and preclude any reintensification of storms over our area in the morning. In addition, as the upper shortwave lifts out we will be left with weakening and veering low level flow through midday with weakening surface convergence along the slowing and weakening surface trough/cold front. This all points to the likelihood of just shallow convection driven primarily by low level moisture advection. The lack of forcing and weakening, veering low level shear should preclude a morning severe weather threat. By Friday afternoon, attention will quickly focus back to the west as another fast moving mid level shortwave trough follows on the heels of the departing lead upper low and shortwave. This feature will likely advance rapidly from the Southern Plains across the Lower Mississippi Valley by Friday afternoon. The low level airmass will continue to moisten and warm through the afternoon resulting in the development of moderate instability across much of the forecast area with SBCAPES upwards of up to 2000j/kg. Modest height falls will spread across interior portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama by mid/late afternoon along with additional support for modest large scale ascent within the right entrance region of a 300mb jet streak which grazes our area as the jet ejects northward out of the base of an increasingly negatively tilted trough. Overall shear should increase again ahead of this feature and there should be ample mainly unidirectional shear and thermodynamic instability in place. The biggest questions that remain is regarding the strength of the overall lift as the trough will again just graze northwest portions of our CWA. If enough lift is present, storms should reintensify over interior southeast Mississippi and spread northeast across interior southwest Alabama by evening before lifting north and weakening. If storms can grow upscale sufficiently, then a potential for strong to severe wind gusts and some large hail cannot be ruled out. The threat again is conditional on the degree of large scale ascent. We will closely monitor this potential overnight into the morning hours of Friday and provide additional updates as needed. A likely greater severe threat should materialize on Saturday night into Sunday morning with a more potent system. More details to follow with the Friday morning AFD update. Sea fog will likely also become a problem for portions of Mobile Bay into the Mississippi Sound along with immediate adjacent portions of Mobile/Baldwin counties by Friday afternoon into evening. Middle to upper 60`s dewpoints overspreading water temperatures in the upper 50`s over northern Mobile Bay to lower 60`s in the Mississippi Sound should set the stage for dense sea fog. Several of our more recent return flow events have resulted in dense sea fog over these areas and given very similar conditions to those we should see the same scenario unfold. Forecast guidance is also quite keen on the development of sea fog and significantly reduced visibilities. It`s too early for any dense fog products at the moment, but for now have introduced dense fog into the forecast for the aforementioned time/area. A High risk of rip currents will continue through Friday for our beaches. Surf heights will also remain elevated around 3 to 5 feet through Friday afternoon. /JLH MARINE... East to southeast winds continue to increase this evening over all of our marine waters with Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions expected over our area bays and sounds and Small Craft Advisory conditions over the Gulf. Increased winds and seas will lead to hazardous boating conditions into Friday morning for all small craft. /JLH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 59 73 63 73 62 73 50 70 / 40 60 50 80 80 20 0 0 Pensacola 61 71 66 73 64 73 54 70 / 20 50 50 70 90 30 0 0 Destin 60 70 67 72 66 73 56 69 / 10 30 50 60 90 50 10 0 Evergreen 52 69 61 74 61 72 47 72 / 10 50 60 70 90 30 0 0 Waynesboro 56 73 62 74 59 70 46 71 / 40 70 60 80 80 10 0 0 Camden 51 68 61 72 60 70 47 70 / 10 60 70 80 90 30 0 0 Crestview 54 70 62 75 62 74 49 73 / 10 30 50 60 90 40 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ650-655-670- 675. && $$ |
| #1213267 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:42 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1228 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 820 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Friday) Issued at 250 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 The persistent wedge has kept us entrenched in cloud cover yet again today. This is due to the high pressure sitting over New England imparting cool northeasterly surface winds down the spine of the Appalachians. Meanwhile, warm, moist southerly flow at and above 925 mb is overrunning this flow, providing some isentropic lift that not only has produced the gloomy skies but has squeezed enough moisture out for drizzle or light showers. There are a few breaks in the clouds, but the general expectation is for more clouds through the night. Some patchy fog is also possible, mainly in the Big Bend up into the Valdosta metro. Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to mid-50s. Tomorrow will begin the breakdown of this pattern... hopefully. High pressure will start to move out of New England late tomorrow, which should allow our surface winds to become more east to southeast in the afternoon. A warm front will also begin to move northward off the Gulf. However, there is a large split in guidance tomorrow due to differences in how quickly the wedge erodes as the warm front approaches. Some models hold on to the wedge for longer across our northern and eastern zones, while others quickly erode it. This causes a massive disparity in high temperature outputs for tomorrow. Within the HREF envelope, there is a 10 to 12 degree difference between the 25th and 75th percentile. Meanwhile, the global models are on the warmer end of the guidance, but have not performed as well in this wedge setup in recent days compared to the higher-res guidance. Given this level of uncertainty, going to lean more on a persistence forecast in this scenario. I am a bit cooler than guidance across the northern part of the area where the wedge will probably hold on longer and warmer to the south. Thus, highs will be in the mid 60s to the north with upper 70s down in parts of Dixie County. Additionally, a few showers may develop along the warm front in the Panhandle into southeast Alabama. Some patchy sea fog may also develop in Apalachee Bay and along the Forgotten Coast tomorrow afternoon as the warm, moist air overrides the cool shelf waters. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 250 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 A second in a series of shortwave troughs rotates through a broad central US trough Friday night into Saturday. If this first wave on Friday can`t break apart the low-level clouds on Friday afternoon, the second shortwave should should help break the thick low-level stratus as the cold air wedge erodes under increasing southerly flow in the period. A weak frontal boundary will likely stall across Alabama Friday night into Saturday helping to serve as a weak focus for scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms overnight Friday into Saturday. The 3rd and strongest shortwave in this broad trough begins to approach the tri-state region Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. With ongoing cyclogenesis well to the northwest of our area, expect increasing southerly flow through Saturday and into the overnight hours of Saturday as a low-level jet begins to take shape. While isolated/scattered showers and storms should be ongoing through the afternoon, the greatest coverage will be across southeast Alabama and the Panhandle into the overnight hours as the approaching trough and continued moisture transport north help spawn the development of more widespread showers and storms. There will be a non-zero threat for severe weather in the overnight hours and into early Sunday as the shortwave trough approaches, but given the slightly faster timing of the surface low and it`s quick departure north, severe storm coverage at this time will likely be more isolated and confined to the Panhandle and southeast Alabama. Some severe potential could persist into Sunday morning/afternoon further east across southwest Georgia and the Florida Big Bend but with forcing quickly lifting out and shear profiles weakening through the day a severe threat will likely remain more on the isolated side into Sunday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 250 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 Not much of a cool down is expected after the shortwave moves through but with a progressive pattern still in place into early next week, we`re likely to see another front or two move through the region into Wednesday. Expect the possibility of rain with these frontal passages and by the middle part of next week model ensembles suggest a return to more winter-like temperatures for the area as we drop back into the upper 50s and low 60s with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 IFR to MVFR conditions are expected to continue through the rest of the night and into the morning today, with some spots of LIFR possible around sunrise. Conditions will likely be slow to improve but eventually should reach MVFR to VFR this afternoon. Another round of lowering ceilings and potentially fog is expected overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 Easterly flow will prevail through Friday with occasional periods of cautionary conditions tonight into Friday as an are of low pressure moves through the southeast US and tightens the pressure gradient. Winds shift to a southerly direction on Saturday and then westerly behind the cold front on Sunday. This could bring areas of showers and thunderstorms, mostly across our western waters west of Apalachicola. Main period of increased winds/seas will be tonight into Friday afternoon with winds subsiding to around 10 to 15 knots over the weekend and into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 250 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 Abundant cloud cover will keep mixing heights very low on Friday, generally less than 1,500 feet. This along with southeasterly transport winds around 10 mph will lead to low dispersions area-wide Friday. Isolated showers are possible in the western Panhandle Friday afternoon. Transport winds increase out of the south to southwest over the weekend ahead of an approaching cold front. This will bring dispersions up into the fair to good category this weekend, though possibly still low across our northernmost Georgia zones Saturday. Rain chances will increase from west to east Friday night into the weekend with thunderstorms possible Saturday night into Sunday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 250 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 Rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches with the next few systems are expected across southeast Alabama and the Panhandle, with lesser amounts further east across the Big Bend and southwest Georgia. These amounts are not likely to cause any hydrological issues. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 71 61 75 63 / 10 10 30 70 Panama City 72 61 74 63 / 10 30 40 80 Dothan 68 60 75 62 / 10 30 40 80 Albany 67 58 76 62 / 0 20 30 60 Valdosta 71 61 78 63 / 20 10 30 40 Cross City 77 61 79 62 / 10 10 20 20 Apalachicola 67 61 70 62 / 0 20 30 70 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ750-752-770- 772. && $$ |
| #1213266 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:42 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1138 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1239 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Key Messages: - Dry and warm through the short term period with morning fog and above normal temperatures Thunderstorms that were near Victoria early this afternoon have now moved out of the area. Clouds are now clearing from west to east in the wake of the mid-level trough, which is allowing temperatures to heat up into the lower 80s today. Temperatures will be even warmer Friday with highs ranging from the upper 70s in the Victoria Crossroads to the mid-80s across Brush Country. The main impactful weather expected through the short term is the development of fog tonight and again Friday night. A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed as areas of dense fog with visibilities under a quarter of a mile may be widespread. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday Night) Issued at 1239 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Key Messages: - Very warm temperatures to continue this weekend into Monday. - Strong cold front expected Tuesday. Not much change with the weekend forecast. Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through this weekend and especially Monday with highs in the upper 80s along the Rio Grande and the Brush Country to low to mid 80s across the remainder of S TX ahead of the next stronger cold front. A stalled cold front along the TX coast is forecast to finally move offshore Saturday or Saturday night, as high pressure builds into S TX. This front will be weak with little cold air advection, but will have some drier air filtering into the area with a light northerly flow. Lows Saturday night will be slightly cooler, mainly due to the drier airmass rather than CAA. Sunday`s highs will still be above normal and the light north winds will quickly turn back to the southeast Sunday afternoon. Monday continues to look to be the warmest day for the upcoming week due to warm air advection ahead of the next stronger cold front. This cold front is progged to move through S TX late Monday night into Tuesday morning. The GFS solution continues to be the slowest showing a FROPA Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday night, but this is the outlier. Behind the cold front, winds will strengthen out of the north. Current forecast has winds north 10-15 mph, but there could be a period where winds are stronger and gusty for a few hours during the day Tuesday as high pressure builds into the area. Winds will be stronger over the Coastal Waters. Highs in the 70s are expected Tuesday across a majority of S TX. Wednesday`s and Thursday`s highs are forecast to be in the 60s with lows in the 40s. As for rain chances, a couple of models were hinting at brief light rain Saturday across the eastern CWA. However, the chances are very low with less than 10% due to limited moisture. Rain chances are slightly higher over the coastal waters but still only a low to medium (10-30%) chance, mainly across the offshore waters, due to deeper moisture and better instability. A drier airmass will keep rain chances low to nil (<10%) with the second stronger cold front Tuesday. A low (10-20%) chance of showers returns to the Coastal Waters and right along the islands by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 At time of writing, skies are mostly clear with light and variable winds across the region tonight. With ample moisture and the aforementioned calm winds, low CIGs and patchy to areas of dense fog are expected to develop, therefore reducing VSBYs. VCT and locations along the immediate coast are already reporting fog. Short-term model guidance continues to hint at the possibility of IFR/LIFR conditions forming late tonight and continuing into early Friday morning from the Coastal Plains eastward, with the latest SREF probabilities suggesting a low to medium chance (30-60%) of VSBYs less than 1 mile. Conditions will gradually improve back to VFR by Friday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1239 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 A weak to at times moderate flow is expected through Saturday morning becoming weak to moderate from the north by Saturday night behind a weak cold front. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected Saturday ahead of the cold front. Winds will quickly shift back to the southeast by Sunday afternoon. A southerly flow will become moderate by Monday night ahead of a strong front. A moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow may develop behind the cold front Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 54 81 64 82 / 0 0 0 10 Victoria 51 79 60 81 / 0 0 0 10 Laredo 52 82 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 51 83 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 58 76 64 79 / 0 0 0 10 Cotulla 49 84 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 53 83 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 61 74 66 76 / 0 0 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for TXZ245-342>347-442- 443-447. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for GMZ231-232-236-237- 250-255. && $$ |
| #1213265 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:42 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1129 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY... Issued at 1210 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 A Tornado Watch has been issued for the entirety of SE Texas minus Jackson and Matagorda Counties. This Watch will continue through 7 PM. Scattered thunderstorms continue this afternoon across the area. Surface observations show dew points increasing to around 70F along and south of the I-10 corridor, suggesting that this area now lies in the warm sector as a warm front lifts northward. The environment remains very moist and unstable with steep mid- level lapse rates, increasing MLCAPE (1500-2000 J/kg), and bulk shear in excess of 45 kts. All of these parameters remain favorable for all modes of severe weather this afternoon. Will need to monitor the evolution of storms entering the area from the west this afternoon as they enter the aforementioned environment. SPC has upgraded the Houston and north to the Sabine River to an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather with the rest of SE Texas in a Slight Risk ( 2 of 5). Have multiple ways to receive alerts and stay weather aware! && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday Night) Issued at 1245 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 The severe threat will diminish this evening as storms move offshore and a drier and more stable atmosphere moves in from behind. Locations along the coast could see some lingering showers late Friday night as onshore winds allow for some moisture return. Foggy conditions should develop overnight into Friday morning due to light winds and low-level moisture. Temperatures will be around 50 to low 60s overnight tonight and Friday night. Friday`s highs will be in the upper 60s across the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods and into the 70s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1245 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Before what is shaping up to be an extended period of cooler and generally less active weather, we`ll have one more round of showers and storms moving through the area as another upper trough swings into the Southern Plains. With onshore flow continuing to enhance low-level moisture and a weak cold front extending from a low over Oklahoma moving into the area, we should see scattered showers and storms throughout the day on Saturday. Some strong storm development could be on the cards again with SB instability reaching around 2000 J/kg ahead of the front and effective shear of around 30kt. For the time being, we remain in a Marginal Risk area in the latest SPC update (level 1/5)...something to keep an eye on in the coming days. A less active period is on the cards following the passage of the front late on Saturday/into early Sunday with conditions clearing out behind the boundary. Initial CAA behind the front should be fairly weak and mild conditions can be expected on Sunday and Monday with highs in the 70s and lows generally in the 50s (near 60 along the immediate coast). Global models still show the arrival of a reinforcing cold frontal boundary on Tuesday which should bring with it a push of much cooler and drier air that should push highs into the upper 50s/low 60s and lows into the upper 30s/40s as we approach the end of next week. Cady && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1112 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Light winds, clearing skies, and lingering soil moisture from Thursday`s rainfall will lead to the development of patchy, dense fog across the area over the next few hours that will persist into the early to mid morning hours. CXO and LBX have already gone down to IFR and LIFR due to reduced visibility with other terminals also reporting some mist and light fog. Conditions will only continue to get more favorable for fog over the next few hours, so expect continued degradation in flight categories. The fog is expected to dissipate by 14-15z with VFR conditions returning through the remainder of the afternoon and evening with light southwest to southerly winds. Low CIGs (1500-2500ft) and patchy, potentially dense, fog will return Friday night into Saturday morning. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1245 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Strong thunderstorms remain a possibility through this evening as a cold front looks to push into the coastal waters after sunset. Storms along and ahead of this front may produce strong wind gusts and potentially waterspouts. Activity will diminish heading into tomorrow. Another cold frontal boundary looks to approach on Saturday which should bring showers and storms with a shift to offshore winds that could approach caution thresholds. A stronger frontal boundary arrives on Tuesday, bringing a push of cooler and drier air along with stronger offshore winds. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed in the wake of this frontal boundary. Cady && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 50 70 53 76 / 0 0 10 10 Houston (IAH) 57 72 60 77 / 10 0 20 30 Galveston (GLS) 62 69 63 72 / 100 0 30 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until midnight CST tonight for GMZ350-355-370-375. && $$ |
| #1213263 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:15 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1110 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 250 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Key Messages: - Temperatures continue to remain much above average. The short term forecast continues with an active pattern. This evening, the mid to upper level trough and surface low over northeastern Texas today will continue to depart to the east- northeast. Meanwhile, two waves of energy riding along the Subtropical ridge will dive southeastward across the Intermountain West region, forming shortwave troughs over northern and central Texas late tonight followed by the next one late Friday night. At the surface, a cold front, extending from the low in northeastern Texas, is expected to filter in drier air across the western Northern Ranchlands (Starr and Jim Hogg counties) and upper RGV as it transitions to a stationary boundary overnight. To the southeast of the boundary, southerly winds will continue to advect warm and moist air across the lower RGV and the beaches. As winds become light tonight and skies become partly cloudy to mostly clear, there is a low to moderate (20-40%) chance for areas of fog and patchy fog across of the middle and lower RGV, eastern Northern Ranchlands (Brooks and Kenedy counties), eastern portions of the upper RGV as well as at the beaches through sunrise. Tomorrow, southerly winds across Deep South Texas will cause the boundary to retreat to the north as well as cause a dry line, ushered eastward across Texas by a surge of high pressure, to stall over the Rio Grande Plains. East of the dry line, moisture will remain elevated, thus leading to another potential for fog tomorrow night. As has been the ongoing story this week, very unseasonably warm temperatures continue through Friday night as minimum and maximum temperatures range 10-15 degrees (and even warmer) above average for this time of year as Deep South Texas remains in the warm sector of the mid-upper level troughs. Lows tonight will fall to the mid to upper 50s across the Northern Ranchlands, the upper RGV and parts of the middle RGV, 60s across the lower RGV and upper 60s to lower 70s along, and close to, the beaches. High temperatures tomorrow top out in the low to mid 80s, with mid 70s at the beaches, and then fall to the 50s and 60s across inland Deep South Texas and lower 70s at the beaches overnight. By contrast, typical highs and lows for late December are lower 70s and lower 50s, respectively. There is a moderate risk for rip currents through tonight due to slightly elevated wave heights and longer periods, followed by a low risk for tomorrow as wave heights lower and periods shorten. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 250 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 A 500mb trough sweeps through the Plains and into the Great Lakes Saturday into Monday, before a larger trough swings south through most of the CONUS mid to late week. At the surface, weak low pressure across the Southern Plains swings east, dropping a weak frontal boundary south over the weekend and back north as a warm front into Monday. Expect above normal to near record warmth across the Rio Grande Valley through the remainder of 2024, especially Saturday and Monday, with highs generally into the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s. A stronger system works from the Plains into the Great Lakes Monday through Tuesday with a couple of fronts through Deep South Texas Tuesday into Thursday, building strong high pressure into the first weekend of 2025. These fronts will bring more persistent northerly winds into late week, dropping temperatures back toward seasonal Wednesday and a little below normal on Thursday. Have kept NBM POPs mid to late week with persistent 15 to 25 percent chances along the lower coastal counties. Cloud cover keeps overnight lows from falling too far from the mid 40s to low 50s north to south. Patchy to dense fog is possible each morning and may need to be monitored along the coast for dense fog, especially Sunday and Monday. Astronomical tides increase into NYE, with a New Moon on Monday and swell periods increasing to 7 seconds, increasing the probability of life-threatening rip currents, with very inviting beach weather days Sunday through Tuesday. Rip Current Statements may be needed. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1106 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Latest satellite imagery and surface observations indicate some low stratus across portions of the Rio Grande Valley. A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions are expected for the next several hours as low clouds and patchy fog develops across the area. Ample moisture and very light winds are expected to lead to low ceilings and patchy to areas of fog with reduce visibilities. Some short term models are suggesting some fog with the possibility of IFR/LIFR conditions developing overnight to around sunrise. However, the SREF is indicating mainly low ceilings through much of the period. Will lean towards a blend of the previous forecast, NBM probabilities and current guidance. Conditions will gradually improve late Friday morning with VFR conditions returning by the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Tonight through Friday night...Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines are expected to continue into the early evening hours for the offshore (20-60 nm) Gulf waters as a pressure gradient continues to result in moderate to fresh, occasionally strong, southerly winds. Throughout the evening hours and continuing overnight, winds will diminish as the pressure gradient relaxes and slight to moderate (3-5 ft) seas will begin to subside. By Friday morning, light to gentle southerly winds and slight seas will resume into the rest of the period. Isolated showers are possible offshore through tonight. Saturday through Thursday...Southerly flow generally continues into this weekend before a weak frontal boundary brings brief northerly winds into Sunday afternoon. Southerly winds return into Tuesday before stronger fronts arrive with building seas into Thursday. Small Craft Caution conditions are possible Tuesday into Wednesday, with Small Craft Advisories likely needed late Wednesday through Thursday. Patchy to dense fog may develop along the lower Texas coast this weekend into early next week due to elevated air temperatures over cooler sea surface temperatures. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 69 83 68 84 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 64 85 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 63 87 67 86 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 55 84 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 70 77 70 78 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 66 81 66 82 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1213264 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:15 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1110 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 250 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Key Messages: - Temperatures continue to remain much above average. The short term forecast continues with an active pattern. This evening, the mid to upper level trough and surface low over northeastern Texas today will continue to depart to the east- northeast. Meanwhile, two waves of energy riding along the Subtropical ridge will dive southeastward across the Intermountain West region, forming shortwave troughs over northern and central Texas late tonight followed by the next one late Friday night. At the surface, a cold front, extending from the low in northeastern Texas, is expected to filter in drier air across the western Northern Ranchlands (Starr and Jim Hogg counties) and upper RGV as it transitions to a stationary boundary overnight. To the southeast of the boundary, southerly winds will continue to advect warm and moist air across the lower RGV and the beaches. As winds become light tonight and skies become partly cloudy to mostly clear, there is a low to moderate (20-40%) chance for areas of fog and patchy fog across of the middle and lower RGV, eastern Northern Ranchlands (Brooks and Kenedy counties), eastern portions of the upper RGV as well as at the beaches through sunrise. Tomorrow, southerly winds across Deep South Texas will cause the boundary to retreat to the north as well as cause a dry line, ushered eastward across Texas by a surge of high pressure, to stall over the Rio Grande Plains. East of the dry line, moisture will remain elevated, thus leading to another potential for fog tomorrow night. As has been the ongoing story this week, very unseasonably warm temperatures continue through Friday night as minimum and maximum temperatures range 10-15 degrees (and even warmer) above average for this time of year as Deep South Texas remains in the warm sector of the mid-upper level troughs. Lows tonight will fall to the mid to upper 50s across the Northern Ranchlands, the upper RGV and parts of the middle RGV, 60s across the lower RGV and upper 60s to lower 70s along, and close to, the beaches. High temperatures tomorrow top out in the low to mid 80s, with mid 70s at the beaches, and then fall to the 50s and 60s across inland Deep South Texas and lower 70s at the beaches overnight. By contrast, typical highs and lows for late December are lower 70s and lower 50s, respectively. There is a moderate risk for rip currents through tonight due to slightly elevated wave heights and longer periods, followed by a low risk for tomorrow as wave heights lower and periods shorten. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 250 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 A 500mb trough sweeps through the Plains and into the Great Lakes Saturday into Monday, before a larger trough swings south through most of the CONUS mid to late week. At the surface, weak low pressure across the Southern Plains swings east, dropping a weak frontal boundary south over the weekend and back north as a warm front into Monday. Expect above normal to near record warmth across the Rio Grande Valley through the remainder of 2024, especially Saturday and Monday, with highs generally into the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s. A stronger system works from the Plains into the Great Lakes Monday through Tuesday with a couple of fronts through Deep South Texas Tuesday into Thursday, building strong high pressure into the first weekend of 2025. These fronts will bring more persistent northerly winds into late week, dropping temperatures back toward seasonal Wednesday and a little below normal on Thursday. Have kept NBM POPs mid to late week with persistent 15 to 25 percent chances along the lower coastal counties. Cloud cover keeps overnight lows from falling too far from the mid 40s to low 50s north to south. Patchy to dense fog is possible each morning and may need to be monitored along the coast for dense fog, especially Sunday and Monday. Astronomical tides increase into NYE, with a New Moon on Monday and swell periods increasing to 7 seconds, increasing the probability of life-threatening rip currents, with very inviting beach weather days Sunday through Tuesday. Rip Current Statements may be needed. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1106 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Latest satellite imagery and surface observations indicate some low stratus across portions of the Rio Grande Valley. A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions are expected for the next several hours as low clouds and patchy fog develops across the area. Ample moisture and very light winds are expected to lead to low ceilings and patchy to areas of fog with reduce visibilities. Some short term models are suggesting some fog with the possibility of IFR/LIFR conditions developing overnight to around sunrise. However, the SREF is indicating mainly low ceilings through much of the period. Will lean towards a blend of the previous forecast, NBM probabilities and current guidance. Conditions will gradually improve late Friday morning with VFR conditions returning by the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Tonight through Friday night...Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines are expected to continue into the early evening hours for the offshore (20-60 nm) Gulf waters as a pressure gradient continues to result in moderate to fresh, occasionally strong, southerly winds. Throughout the evening hours and continuing overnight, winds will diminish as the pressure gradient relaxes and slight to moderate (3-5 ft) seas will begin to subside. By Friday morning, light to gentle southerly winds and slight seas will resume into the rest of the period. Isolated showers are possible offshore through tonight. Saturday through Thursday...Southerly flow generally continues into this weekend before a weak frontal boundary brings brief northerly winds into Sunday afternoon. Southerly winds return into Tuesday before stronger fronts arrive with building seas into Thursday. Small Craft Caution conditions are possible Tuesday into Wednesday, with Small Craft Advisories likely needed late Wednesday through Thursday. Patchy to dense fog may develop along the lower Texas coast this weekend into early next week due to elevated air temperatures over cooler sea surface temperatures. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 69 83 68 84 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 64 85 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 63 87 67 86 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 55 84 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 70 77 70 78 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 66 81 66 82 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1213261 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:15 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1212 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain dry weather through Friday. Light icing is possible early Saturday ahead of a warm front, that will bring rain and milder air into the region over the weekend and into early next week. Another low pressure system may bring rain around New Years Day, then colder air should follow for the first few days of 2025. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Surface high pressure remains over the region tonight promoting dry conditions and mainly clear skies. This will support another cooler night with optimal conditions for radiational cooling. Low temperatures drop into the teens across much of the interior with single digits across the western MA. Areas closer to the coast drop into the 20s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Friday: High pressure centers just south of the region Friday supporting another dry day with light W/SW winds. Temperatures aloft warm 2-4 degrees from Thursday which usually would mean a decent warm up in temperatures. However, model soundings show a rather shallow mixing layer preventing the mixing down of the warmer temperatures aloft. High temperatures will likely range in the upper 30s and low 40s. Friday Night: The area of high pressure once positioned to the south, will move eastward off the coastline tomorrow night. A weak shortwave will bring in our next chance precipitation arriving by early Saturday morning. Overnight, temperatures at the surface should have time to cool into the 20s across most spots. Warm air slowly advects in from the south and moisture trends upward into the early morning hours Saturday. HREF guidance shows light precipitation arriving in the interior 09-12z, continuing through the morning. Most model guidance shows a signal for freezing rain potential Saturday morning given the defined layer of WAA (850mb temperatures 4-5C) over a shallow surface layer below freezing. Areas across the interior especially the cooler spots like the Berkshires and Worcester Hills will have a higher threat. Timing will play a big role in the overall threat as we will need cold enough surface temperatures paired with the onset of the precipitation to support this potential. More details will be included in the Long Term Discussion below. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Messages: * Light icing and slippery travel possible early Saturday. * Milder air follows with periods of rain Sat-Mon. * More rain possible around New Year`s Day followed by colder air. Fairly active and overall mild pattern taking shape over weekend and into New Year`s Day as upper ridge remains parked offshore and mean trough sets up to our west. A series of short waves will drive several low pressure systems to our west, each accompanied by deep southerly flow aloft and plentiful moisture. Main concern deals with potential for light icing and slippery travel early Sat as precipitation arrives ahead of warm front. Not a great signal for cold air damming but light winds in place and snowcover should help keep low level cold locked in, especially near Berkshires, Litchfield Hills, and in Connecticut River Valley where ensembles and pointing toward higher probabilities of light icing. Model soundings show a classic freezing rain signal with a mid level warm nose of 5-6C and a shallow subfreezing layer near the ground. We did note that 12z HREF cuts off these probabilities sharply farther east but that is due more to 48hr ending time of 12z Sat. WPC ensemble probs do carry lower chances into BOS/PVD, which is dependent upon how quickly precipitation arrives, but even for these areas it`s possible existing snow cover keeps low level cold trapped for a few hours Sat morning. Keep in mind these light icing events (light coating of a trace to a few hundredths of an inch) can be the most dangerous for travel since roads may look wet. Plan on some extra travel time Saturday morning since you may need to exercise your winter driving skills. Temperatures should warm up by midday Saturday ending the icing threat. Warmer air then floods SNE over the weekend and into early next week, likely persisting through New Year`s Day. Highs should reach well into 50s Sun/Mon and settle back into 40s Tue/Wed. Two more rounds of rain seem likely in Sun-Mon and Tue-Wed timeframes as next low pressure systems track through region. After New Year`s Day ensembles are signaling toward a return to colder weather (highs in 20s/30s) as broad closed low takes hold over region. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z TAF Update: High confidence. Through 12Z...High Confidence VFR. Light north/northwest winds. Today...High Confidence VFR. Light winds becoming west/southwesterly. Tonight...Moderate Confidence VFR through 06Z with light winds. MVFR cigs and -FZRA begin to move into the western areas between 06 and 12Z. Tomorrow...Moderate Confidence MVFR/IFR ceilings with light southerly winds. -FZRA possible between roughly 12 and 15Z, but any -FZRA should transition to -RA by late morning as temperatures rise above freezing. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. Low risk for icing early Saturday. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Potential for light icing from -FZRA (less than 0.10") early Sat. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA, chance FZRA. Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. RA likely. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. RA likely. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. RA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. RA. Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance RA. Tuesday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence for next several days. SCA remains posted for lingering 5-6 ft seas east of Cape Cod. Otherwise high pressure over New England maintains light winds and calm seas into Sat night, slowly shifting from N tonight to SW Fri into Sat. We could see some spotty freezing drizzle early Sat nearshore but confidence is low. Increasing S/SE winds later Sun into Mon should bring building seas and periods of rain, when SCAs should be needed on most of the waters. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain, slight chance of freezing rain. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rain likely. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain likely. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Rain. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ254-255. && $$ |
| #1213260 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:09 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1106 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Saturday) Issued at 959 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 The latest Mid Level Water Vapor IR band as of 04z indicates that a potent upper level low pressure system continues to lift northeast through the Arklatex this evening with a notable shortwave ejecting through the base of the trough allowing it to take on a pronounced negative tilt. This feature will continue to lift northeast into the Mid South tonight. Latest surface observations also as of 04z reflect a 1006 mb surface low nearly stacked beneath the mid/upper level low. This feature also continues to lift northeast and will traverse across Arkansas and east of the Mississippi to the north of Memphis by Friday morning. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms has developed along surface trough that extends from the surface low south across western Louisiana into the upper Texas coast. Storm organization has been aided by ample shear as a 70kt+ mid level jet and observed 50kt+ low level jet overspread much of Louisiana and Mississippi and points north into the Mid South. A warm front was also observed stretching from the Arklatex low southeast across Louisiana from near Shreveport to just north of the New Orleans metro then offshore roughly 20nmi south of the Alabama coast. This warm front should continue to gradually lift northward in response to the strong low level flow in advance of the approaching system. Latest 04z mesoanalysis indicates that a moisture rich airmass represented by 335-340K theta-e continues to advect inland from the northern Gulf. This moisture rich airmass should eventually overspread much of southeast Mississippi and coastal Alabama late tonight into tomorrow morning. The line of storms will gradually begin to weaken and slow their eastward progression as the upper trough begins to shift northeast and away from our forecast area by tomorrow morning. Despite the improving thermodynamic environment with SBCAPES rising quickly above 1000j/km by mid morning Friday, the lack of mid level height falls (in fact even height rises) should result in limited large scale ascent and preclude any reintensification of storms over our area in the morning. In addition, as the upper shortwave lifts out we will be left with weakening and veering low level flow through midday with weakening surface convergence along the slowing and weakening surface trough/cold front. This all points to the likelihood of just shallow convection driven primarily by low level moisture advection. The lack of forcing and weakening, veering low level shear should preclude a morning severe weather threat. By Friday afternoon, attention will quickly focus back to the west as another fast moving mid level shortwave trough follows on the heels of the departing lead upper low and shortwave. This feature will likely advance rapidly from the Southern Plains across the Lower Mississippi Valley by Friday afternoon. The low level airmass will continue to moisten and warm through the afternoon resulting in the development of moderate instability across much of the forecast area with SBCAPES upwards of up to 2000j/kg. Modest height falls will spread across interior portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama by mid/late afternoon along with additional support for modest large scale ascent within the right entrance region of a 300mb jet streak which grazes our area as the jet ejects northward out of the base of an increasingly negatively tilted trough. Overall shear should increase again ahead of this feature and there should be ample mainly unidirectional shear and thermodynamic instability in place. The biggest questions that remain is regarding the strength of the overall lift as the trough will again just graze northwest portions of our CWA. If enough lift is present, storms should reintensify over interior southeast Mississippi and spread northeast across interior southwest Alabama by evening before lifting north and weakening. If storms can grow upscale sufficiently, then a potential for strong to severe wind gusts and some large hail cannot be ruled out. The threat again is conditional on the degree of large scale ascent. We will closely monitor this potential overnight into the morning hours of Friday and provide additional updates as needed. A likely greater severe threat should materialize on Saturday night into Sunday morning with a more potent system. More details to follow with the Friday morning AFD update. Sea fog will likely also become a problem for portions of Mobile Bay into the Mississippi Sound along with immediate adjacent portions of Mobile/Baldwin counties by Friday afternoon into evening. Middle to upper 60`s dewpoints overspreading water temperatures in the upper 50`s over northern Mobile Bay to lower 60`s in the Mississippi Sound should set the stage for dense sea fog. Several of our more recent return flow events have resulted in dense sea fog over these areas and given very similar conditions to those we should see the same scenario unfold. Forecast guidance is also quite keen on the development of sea fog and significantly reduced visibilities. It`s too early for any dense fog products at the moment, but for now have introduced dense fog into the forecast for the aforementioned time/area. A High risk of rip currents will continue through Friday for our beaches. Surf heights will also remain elevated around 3 to 5 feet through Friday afternoon. /JLH && .MARINE... East to southeast winds continue to increase this evening over all of our marine waters with Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions expected over our area bays and sounds and Small Craft Advisory conditions over the Gulf. Increased winds and seas will lead to hazardous boating conditions into Friday morning for all small craft. /JLH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 59 73 63 73 62 73 50 70 / 40 60 50 80 80 20 0 0 Pensacola 61 71 66 73 64 73 54 70 / 20 50 50 70 90 40 10 10 Destin 60 70 67 72 66 73 56 69 / 10 30 50 60 90 50 10 10 Evergreen 52 69 61 74 61 72 47 72 / 10 50 60 70 90 30 10 0 Waynesboro 56 73 62 74 59 70 46 71 / 40 70 60 80 80 10 0 0 Camden 51 68 61 72 60 70 47 70 / 10 60 70 80 90 30 10 0 Crestview 54 70 62 75 62 74 49 73 / 10 30 50 60 90 50 10 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ650-655-670- 675. && $$ |
| #1213259 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:06 AM 27.Dec.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1204 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 647 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 Forecast is on track this evening with just a few Atlantic showers remaining. No major updates are anticipated through the evening. Issued the Rip Current Statement for Friday in anticipation of the Atlantic beaches seeing the rip current risk build overnight into Friday morning. Have a wonderful Thursday night! && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1201 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 Satellite imagery depicts a partition of atmospheric flow across South Florida with upper level Cirrus continuing to stream across the region southwest to northeast via the 200-300mb sub-tropical jet stream. Underneath the upper level moisture and clouds and further down in the vertical column, an expansive amount of dry air remains entrenched in the 500-850mb layer. Recent ACARS data from KMIA and KPBI still show a stout separation of temperature and dewpoint values. It underneath this layer that pockets of vertically- capped cumulus advect from east to west across the Gulfstream via easterly surface-925mb flow. This is due to the presence of low- level boundary moisture as identified on both ACARS as well as 12z KEY and MFL upper air soundings. Continued diurnal heating during the rest of the afternoon will maintain and enhance this onshore easterly wind component. The easterly flow over the nearby Gulfstream waters will continue to generate weak shower activity that may advect into portions of the east coast metro from time to time today. 12z HREF paintball probabilities as well as the SREF suggest that the greatest coverage (10-20% chance of precipitation) will gradually shift from coastal Broward and Palm Beach counties to inland areas during the mid to late afternoon hours before a resurgence in coastal activity around or after sunset. Temperatures will remain in the upper 70s to low 80s across the region for the remainder of the afternoon before decreasing into the 60s to low 70s across the area tomorrow morning. A somewhat more entertaining pattern evolves on Friday as the sub- tropical jet remains over the region coupled with a weak shortwave that will move across South Florida. At the same time, a diffuse surface boundary across the Florida Straits will gradually begin to lift northwards. With the arrival of a deeper plume of moisture (1.5- 1.7 inches precipitable water values as mentioned in the preceding AFD) and a little bit of more moisture in the mid-levels, there is the potential for higher rain chances (30-40%) across northeastern portions of the region. While forecasted rain totals (QPF) currently suggest rainfall totals tomorrow less than an inch, I`d like to take less of a deterministic approach and shift to more of a probabilistic lens. HREF`s LPMM indicates the potential of heavier thunderstorm activity just offshore with the potential of 2-3 inches of total rainfall. While this remains the most probable scenario of how things play out (any thunderstorms remaining offshore over the best instability over the Gulfstream), if a thunderstorm was able to brush or move over land, some higher rainfall totals (2-3 inches) could be realized. High temperatures will be similar to today with values in the upper 70s to low 80s expected once again tomorrow afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 144 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 A swath of higher atmospheric moisture (PWATs 1.5-1.7 inches) will linger on the equatorward side of a stalled stationary boundary that currently straddles portions of central Florida. This may lead to a increased chance (30-40%) for scattered showers across the area with the best rainfall chances being over eastern portions of the area and local Atlantic waters. An isolated thunderstorm also cannot be ruled out through this period, though generally brief in duration if development were to occur. For now, it appears that periodic rainfall may be possible through the entirety of the weekend, although predominately dry conditions remain in place most of each day. A robust mid-latitude short-wave trough will traverse the mid- Atlantic and eastern US early next week, allowing drier air to work its way across South Florida, which will reduce rain chances and cloud coverage. A stray shower could still be possible during this time period mainly across eastern portions of the area, though dry conditions will prevail. A strong cold front may develop by the mid- late week period next week and traverse the southeastern United States. With that being said, a notable disparity exists amongst long- range model guidance in regards to timing and strength of post- frontal cold-air advection, given that this event is about a week from occurring. Temperatures remain seasonable through the long term period, with maximum temperatures generally reaching the upper 70s/lower 80s each afternoon. A drying trend is likely early next week, though a meaningful reduction in temperatures is unlikely as of now. Overnight, expect low temperatures in the 60s/70s along the interior/east coast respectively. By the mid-late week period next week, temperatures may become reduced as a cold front develops, although this will be dependent on the strength and orientation of the cold front upon approach. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 SCT to BKN MVFR ceilings this morning across the east coast metro with VCSH throughout the entire period. Easterly winds 5-10 kts this morning becoming 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts after 15Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1201 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 Gentle to moderate easterly breeze expected today over the area waters with a fresh breeze developing over the Atlantic waters beginning on Friday. Seas 2-3 ft in the Atlantic waters building to 3-5 ft on Friday. Seas in the Gulf generally 2 ft or less through && .BEACHES... Issued at 1201 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 There is a moderate risk of rip currents today along the Palm Beaches. A high risk of rips are expected beginning Friday for all Atlantic beaches as easterly flow strengthens. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 71 79 71 / 20 20 20 20 West Kendall 80 68 80 68 / 30 20 20 20 Opa-Locka 81 70 80 69 / 20 20 30 20 Homestead 79 71 80 70 / 30 20 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 78 71 77 71 / 20 30 30 20 N Ft Lauderdale 78 71 78 70 / 20 30 30 20 Pembroke Pines 82 71 82 70 / 20 20 30 20 West Palm Beach 79 70 78 69 / 30 30 30 20 Boca Raton 81 70 79 70 / 30 30 30 20 Naples 81 66 80 66 / 20 20 20 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
