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| #1259463 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:09 AM 10.Feb.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 303 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 225 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 - Fog returns to the area over the next several mornings as warm moist air flows over the cooler waters of the NE Gulf. Pockets of dense fog are likely. If traveling, slow down and give yourself enough time. Expect delays within areas of dense fog. - We continue to monitor the potential for rain and storms this upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 225 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 High pressure dominates for most of this week, fairly benign conditions are expected to persist through tomorrow when a weakening shortwave looks to move eastward across the northern Gulf. This feature may provide just enough forcing for ascent to induce a couple showers. Models are honing in on the next meaningful frontal system to approach the area on Sunday. There is still a little model disagreement with shortwave amplitude, but timing and speed seem to have locked into entering the region Sunday morning and exiting by Sunday night. Fairly consistent run to run wrt the LLJ being around 40-50 kts, so we`ll have to see if any instability manages to push inland, or if this will be a HSLC event. Stay tuned over the next several days for updates. Expect foggy mornings through Thursday as warm moist air flows over the cool waters of the NE Gulf. This pattern typically causes fog to start along the coastline and push inland throughout the overnight period, persisting into the late morning. Patches of dense fog will be likely, reducing visibilities to 1/4 mile or less. Thus, give yourself ample time to get to your destination if traveling and expect delays, especially within areas of dense fog. Daytime highs will generally be in the 70s with overnight lows generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 100 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 A few tweaks were made from the 0Z TAFs - mainly on fog timing and adjusting the lowest vsbys. The latest guidance/trends favor a swath of fog/low stratus from DHN/ABY and a separate batch invof of TLH. The ECP/VLD terminals are on the fringe of this activity. Highest confidence in dense fog is DHN/TLH where tempo groups are in place in the 10-14Z time frame. Trends will be monitored for potential amendments. Conditions improve mid to late morning, though lingering stratus is expected at ABY until about noon. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 Favorable marine conditions continue over the northeastern Gulf. Light to gentle southwesterly breezes prevail through mid-week before becoming more variable late-week. The potential for sea fog, especially for Apalachee Bay, will increase this morning and Wednesday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 225 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 Low dispersions continue along the immediate Gulf Coast with fair to good dispersions forecast inland today. MinRH values will generally range from 40 to 50 percent, although portions of the Apalachicola National Forest may see MinRHs drop to between 30 to 40 percent. Transport winds will generally be out of the southwest Tuesday before turning more westerly ahead of a cold front Wednesday afternoon. Rain chances remain low (less than 30%) for Wednesday, with the highest chances across our northern Georgia districts. Drier air arrives Thursday with MinRH values dropping to between 25 to 35 percent. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 225 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 There are no flooding concerns over the next week. Model guidance has increased the QPF associated with the cold front this weekend to around 1.5 to 2 inches. Although current forecasts aren`t enough to induce flooding concerns, for now, they may be slightly beneficial for improving ongoing drought conditions. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 74 54 76 54 / 0 10 20 0 Panama City 70 57 72 55 / 0 0 20 10 Dothan 75 58 76 51 / 0 10 20 10 Albany 74 57 76 49 / 0 20 30 10 Valdosta 75 53 76 51 / 0 10 20 10 Cross City 74 47 73 53 / 0 0 10 10 Apalachicola 65 55 68 55 / 0 0 20 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for FLZ007>009- 108. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ121. AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ065>069. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1259462 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:06 AM 10.Feb.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 256 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Dry conditions prevail Wednesday night through Saturday. Chances of a wintry mix across the NW portion of the local area at the onset of precipitation Sunday have diminished. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Mild temperatures arrive today and continue through Wednesday. 2.) Dry conditions and near to below average temperatures prevail Wednesday night through Saturday. 3.) Low pressure tracks across the region Sunday into Sunday night bringing the potential for widespread rainfall. Chances of a wintry mix across the NW portion of the local area at the onset of precipitation Sunday have diminished. && .DISCUSSION... As of 255 AM EST Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mild temperatures arrive today and continue through Wednesday. GOES water vapor channels depict an upper ridge building in from the W early this morning. Meanwhile, surface high pressure is centered along the coast. There is a considerable amount of Mid and high level clouds early this morning due to WAA aloft, but these clouds will gradually lift to the NE this morning. Temperatures are in the mid 20s to lower 30s, and still could drop a few degrees through sunrise where cloud cover clears, mainly from the Piedmont through south central VA and NE NC. The upper ridge continues to build across the region today and begins to break down by tonight. This will result in a significant warm up today as a warm front lifts through the area this morning. Temperatures warm into the 50s to lower 60s for most inland locations today. Temperatures only warm into the mid to upper 40s across the Eastern Shore (and immediate coastlines of SE VA/NE NC) due to the very cold water temperatures (30s) and areas of ice. The last day we experienced high temperatures in the 50s was Jan 23 and the last 60s were Jan 22. Low temperatures tonight likely stay above freezing area-wide, with temperatures ranging from the low-mid 40s SW to the mid 30s NE with SW flow in advance of a cold front. The cold front crosses the area early Wednesday morning. This front is expected to be mainly dry, with CAMs showing very little in the way of organized showers prior to 12z/7AM Wednesday across coastal VA, then a little more organization across NE NC 12-15z/7-10AM Wednesday. Regardless, very little QPF is expected, less than 0.1", and PoPs are only ~15% for coastal VA, and 20-30% for NE NC. Otherwise, the sky clears out quickly Wednesday AM and downsloping NW winds should help to counter any initial CAA. Temperatures will rise into the 50s to perhaps lower 60s again (warmest S) for much of the area. NE and across the Eastern Shore, temperatures will again stay in the mid to upper 40s due to colder waters. KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions and near to below average temperatures prevail Wednesday night through Saturday. Stronger CAA arrives Wednesday night bringing a return to below average temperatures to close out the week. 00z/10 EPS/GEFS generally shows temperatures 5-10F below average Thursday/Friday, and then trending back to around average by Saturday. This will support highs mainly in the upper 30s/lower 40s N to upper 40s/around 50F SW, with morning lows in the 20s Thursday/Friday, then upper 40s to lower 50s by Saturday after a chilly start to the day with morning lows in the 20s. Some mid 50s are possible SW if clouds are slower to increase ahead of the next low pressure system. EPS/GEFS show PW anomalies of 40-60% of normal Thursday/Friday then 50-70% of normal by Saturday, so dry conditions prevail during this time period. KEY MESSAGE 3...Low pressure tracks across the region Sunday into Sunday night bringing the potential for widespread rainfall. Chances of a wintry mix across the NW portion of the local area at the onset of precipitation Sunday have diminished. Confidence continues to increase that low pressure will impact the area this weekend, with both deterministic and ensemble guidance coming into better agreement. The low likely tracks into the TN Valley Saturday night into Sunday morning, eventually tracking over the local area or along the coast Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. The 00z/10 EPS does have a slightly more southern track than the GEFS with also a more limited footprint of the highest PW anomalies. Rain continues to be the favored precipitation type for the majority of the area with this system. 50th percentile QPF for this system is generally 0.4-0.6" (highest S) and this is a slight downward trend. The probability for exceeding 0.5" QPF is generally 50-70% S to 30-50% N Sunday into Sunday night. The chc of a wintry mix across NW/northern portions of the area have diminished and are only 20-30% for the far NW (mainly Louisa/Fluvanna counties) from the EPS (and GEPS), and less than 10% from the GEFS. Clouds and rainfall should hold temperatures in the mid/upper 40s for much of the area Sunday, with lower to mid 50s SE. However, there is no CAA behind this system and temperatures are expected to moderate above average by early next week. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1255 AM EST Tuesday... High pressure is centered in vicinity of the coast as of 06z. VFR with BKN-OVC mid and high clouds and a calm to light S wind. VFR conditions are expected to prevail today into tonight as high pressure slowly shifts offshore. BKN-OVC mid and high clouds persist this morning and then lift to the NE later this morning into the aftn. The wind becomes SW 5-10kt today into tonight, with some LLWS possible later tonight. Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions are expected from Wednesday through Saturday. There is a low chance for some scattered light rain showers early Wednesday morning as a cold front drops across the area, mainly across southern portions of the area. Otherwise, high pressure prevails through Saturday. && .MARINE... As of 255 AM EST Tuesday... Key Messages: - Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions prevail through midweek. - A cold front crosses the area late today into Wednesday with the potential for SCA conditions Wednesday night. High pressure is centered over the area and to the southeast early this morning allowing for light southerly winds ~5-10 kt. Waves are ~1 ft with 3-4 ft seas. Marine conditions will remain benign over the local waters today as the high pressure gradually shifts further offshore. A cold front will cross the area late today into Wednesday, shifting the winds to be out of the NW by Wednesday morning. There may be a brief period ahead of the front where wind gusts to near 20 kt in the Ches. Bay, but duration is not expected to be long and confidence is low in needing additional advisories. The cold air behind the front is expected to lag at the surface, which will not cause the winds to increase until Wednesday late afternoon/evening. NW winds will likely increase to ~20 kt with gusts to 25 kt across the Ches. Bay and coastal waters. SCA are likely into Thursday afternoon. The latest guidance continues to show the potential for a stronger system to impact the region this weekend but considerable spread remains with respect to when/where the low forms and subsequently tracks. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1259461 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:06 AM 10.Feb.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 250 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain-free conditions with warming temperatures expected through midweek. - Slight rain chances Thursday, then higher rain chances Sunday. - Late night and early morning fog potential gradually increases through the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 High pressure will dominate through Wednesday continuing the fair dry weather with moderating temperatures and humidity. On Thursday a weakening cool front moves into north Florida and becomes nearly stationary with some clouds and possibly just enough moisture for a few light showers from around the Interstate 4 corridor northward. This boundary will remain across north Florida Friday then begin to lift north as a warm front Saturday as an upper level trough and shortwave energy move across the south central states. Increasing southerly flow ahead of this system will bring deeper moisture northward as the cold front associated with the system approaches leading to increasing shower chances Sunday. The front will move across the region Sunday night with scattered to numerous showers expected. On Monday drier air will begin to move in from the northwest as high pressure builds in, but unlike the systems over the last few weeks this one is more Pacific in origin so very little if any cool down is anticipated. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 250 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 VFR conditions will prevail. Light winds early this morning will become southeast to south at 5 to 8 knots by midday, then shift to southwest to west at 7 to 11 knots during this afternoon. Winds will diminish and become light and variable again after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 Quiet, pleasant marine conditions will continue over the next few days as high pressure dominates. The main concern will be the potential for some sea fog over the nearshore waters off mainly the Nature Coast north of Tampa Bay as moisture increases. During this weekend a cold front will approach the waters bringing a chance of showers along with increasing winds to Small Craft Advisory levels on Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 250 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 High pressure will remain over the area continuing the fair dry weather. Relative humidity values will dip to critical levels this afternoon, but winds will remain less than 15 mph so no Red Flag conditions are anticipated. Moisture will gradually return during mid to late week keeping relative humidity values above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 75 55 74 59 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 79 54 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 79 53 79 56 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 73 53 73 56 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 77 45 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 74 56 73 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1259460 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:51 AM 10.Feb.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 243 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 242 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 - A high risk of rip currents and rough surf persists at area beaches through mid-week, along with lingering poor boating conditions in the Gulf Stream and near inlets. - Drought conditions and lower humidity values through mid-week combine to produce fire sensitive conditions. - Above normal temperatures return this week with any notable rain chances likely holding off towards next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 Current-Tonight...Will monitor for patchy (dense) fog again early this morning, but confidence one way or the other remains low. Greatest threat could be south of Orlando. With very dry air above the surface, suspect most of anything that forms will be fairly shallow. However, localized visibilities of a mile or less will be possible. Else, high pressure continues to remain in control of ECFL weather, promoting a weak pressure gradient with light winds. Wind component does gradually become SSW/SW 5-10 mph today with a later afternoon sea breeze along the Space/Treasure coasts with minimal push inland. The airmass remains very dry with precip not mentioned in the forecast. The warming trend continues with highs in the 70s areawide, warmest values W of I-95 and cannot rule out an 80 degree reading or two. Overnight lows near seasonal in the U40s to L50s for most. Light SW winds tonight generally 5 mph or less. At the beaches, a HIGH risk of numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents continues through mid-week due to a persistent long period swell. Rough surf is also present. Do not let the warmer conditions catch you off guard. Entering the chilly water is discouraged! Wed-Fri...High pressure slowly weakens and is forced southward with the approach of a weak front on Thu. This boundary may linger most notably off of the coast, but is expected to become diffuse thru late week. For now we keep conditions mostly dry over land with some shower activity across the local coastal waters, though will have to watch for some potential activity along the coast on Fri. Suspect we will see a return to overnight/early morning patchy (dense) fog formation for both Thu/Fri mornings. Highs continue mostly above normal in the 70s and perhaps a few L80s possible - generally south of Orlando and inland from the coast toward Lake Okee. Overnight lows continue to trend a little warmer and mainly in the 50s. Sat-Mon...Robust shortwave troughing over Texas early in the period will drive our next cold front through the area late Sun or into early Mon as the trend here is for slowing this system down a bit. Moisture gradually surges ahead of the approaching front, with models trying to spit out some light precip chances (20pct) on Sat night - generally I-4 corridor, then higher chances (30-60pct) through the day on Sun and Sun night. Depending on timing, shower chances may linger into Mon. Limited instability keeps thunder mention out of the forecast for now. We will likely see breezy/gusty winds on Sun ahead of the approaching boundary. Temperatures continue above climo this weekend ahead of the front, with values then forecast to only fall back to more normal numbers early next week behind this boundary. && .MARINE... Issued at 242 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 Today-Tonight...Will likely see some 6ft seas in the Gulf Stream today for our offshore legs south from the Cape so may have to continue to carry Cautionary Statements here at least to start the forecast. Back down to 3-5 ft areawide by late afternoon- tonight. A general offshore wind component early with forecast directional component expect to veer southerly into the afternoon, with an onshore breeze later this afternoon along the Space/Treasure coasts. Winds pick up a bit away from the coast tonight 11-16 kts and mainly out of the SW/W. Long period swells, 12-14sec continue over the near shore waters and continue to produce poor to hazardous boating conditions near inlets during the outgoing tide (twice daily). Wed-Sat...A weak front moves southward into the local waters on Thu. This boundary remains forecast to stall across the local waters and then become diffuse thru late week. This will maintain ISOLD-SCT shower activity Wed night-Sat, with highest PoPs over the open Atlc. Offshore winds continue generally below 15 kts and will veer NW/N on Thu, becoming more light/variable into Thu night and light onshore again Fri aftn into Sat. The only exception to wind speeds is Wed night when they may approach (briefly) 15-20 kts well offshore Cape northward. Seas 3-5 feet Wed fall to 2-4 feet Wed night-Thu and continuing into Sat. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1230 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 Light and variable winds persist at all terminals this morning, forecast to become more southwesterly after 15Z. Dry conditions are anticipated today, and VFR conditions will prevail through the period. There is a low chance for some patchy fog development this morning, but there is low confidence in where and when exactly it will develop, so will continue to monitor and amend as needed. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 242 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 High pressure will continue to influence the weather across east central FL through mid-week and will keep southwest winds relatively light, generally around 5-10 mph. Offshore winds will become onshore along the coast during this afternoon, and then are forecast to remain offshore through the day Wednesday as the flow strengthens slightly. The tail end of a weak front will move into central Florida on Thursday. The airmass remains mostly dry, with near to below critical Min RH values forecast, especially this afternoon. Min RH values are forecast to fall as low as 25-35% across the interior and along the coast of Volusia and northern Brevard counties this afternoon. On Wednesday lowest RH values around 35-40% are forecast inland and generally south of Orlando. Smoke dispersion will be Fair to Generally Good today, becoming Very Good to Excellent for much of the area on Wednesday, and mostly Fair to perhaps Generally Good on Thursday. Patchy fog, producing localized visibilities of a mile or less will be possible early this morning. Fog development may become increasingly likely as we head into Thursday/Friday mornings. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 50 75 54 / 0 0 0 10 MCO 79 54 77 56 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 76 51 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 77 51 76 52 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 78 51 76 55 / 0 0 0 10 SFB 79 51 77 56 / 0 0 0 10 ORL 79 54 77 57 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 77 50 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1259459 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:36 AM 10.Feb.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 221 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Have ended the ongoing small crafts across our central waters and have replaced them with new small craft advisories from Oregon Inlet to North Topsail Beach starting tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Brief warming trend today and early Wed ahead of a cold front which will track across the region and stall to the south Wed night, bringing the next chance of rain. 2) High pressure then builds in behind the stalled front. The front lifts back north as a warm front ahead of a low pressure system slated to work from SW to NE across the Southeast later this weekend. MARINE...Conditions improve this morning before the next set of possible SCA conditions tonight into Wed morning. Monitoring for potential dense marine fog across portions of our inland waters given the cold water temps and overrunning warm air today. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure remains overhead the Mid-Atlantic this morning but should slide offshore through the day today. This is forecast to allow for SW`rly flow to overspread ENC bringing widespread WAA across the area resulting in much warmer temps as compared to previous days. This will bring one forecast challenge to the area, which is how warm will we get across the OBX today. For now given recent trends think inland areas get into the 60s while the NOBX struggles to get out of the mid to upper 40s and maybe the low to mid 50s across Hatteras Island as the surrounding marine airmass remains relatively cold. Afterwards a cold front will sweep S`wards across ENC on Wed bringing clouds and rain chances to the area. Precip chances increase from N to S through the afternoon before quickly ending overnight Wed. Out ahead of the front, high temps will once again increase into the 60s inland and 40s/50s along the OBX. Only light accumulations expected with light stratiform rain due to less than impressive moisture recovery through the column ahead of frontal passage, less than a tenth of an inch. A weak NE`rly surge follows behind the frontal passage. The front is expected to stall to the south with cool high pressure filling in over the FA, but not nearly as cold as the last few bouts of Arctic air we`ve had to deal with lately. Late week MaxTs in the low 40s to low 50s with early morning MinTs in the upper 20s inland, mid to upper 30s coast. Forecast remains dry through Fri with high pressure dominating. KEY MESSAGE 2...A weak low will develop along the stalled boundary in the Southern Plains and track ENE to NEward late-week. Stacked trough cuts across SWern CONUS first half of the weekend, eventually nudging the meandering boundary that had been stalled to the south, northward through the FA late Saturday. Precip chances increase from this point forward as the FA becomes warm sectored with the center of the low progressing near or to the west of ENC Sun night. Have kept likely to categorical PoP`s in the forecast for Sunday with even a thunder mention along the immediate coast and OBX south of Oregon Inlet given the setup. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with occasional deck of mid-level clouds currently over the coast expected to shift offshore in the next few hours. Light winds tonight will give way to southwesterly flow tomorrow morning with occasional gusts as high pressure shifts offshore. Outlook: Guidance suggesting pred VFR expected at the TAF sites through the rest of the week, however warm air advection ramps up could see shallow fog develop Tuesday night, although guidance keeps probs below 10% attm. What may be more likely is sea fog developing across cooler sounds and nearshore waters along the Crystal coast that could affect coastal terminals, i.e. MRH/MQI/FFA from Tuesday afternoon into mid day Wednesday. REFS continues to be the only guidance showing a strong signal for sea fog and will continue to watch guidance for trends, although conceptual pattern would favor its occurrence. A weak cold front moving through the region Wednesday could provide some brief periods of MVFR, though guidance is trending drier with this system. Any sea fog will likely dissipate once the front pushes through the area. Guidance is also trending drier for the Friday system. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure system remains overhead this morning but will gradually push offshore later this afternoon. This will allow for light and variable winds this morning to become SW`rly across all our waters at 5 to 10 kts. Leftover 6 ft seas are forecast to quickly end as well this morning ending any leftover SCA`s along our coastal waters for now. SW`rly winds begin to increase Tue evening as a cold front begins to approach from the north and west with 15-25 kt SW`rly winds with gusts up to 30 kts noted across the Gulf Stream waters. Elsewhere a strong marine inversion will remain in place given the anomalously cold marine waters across the CWA capping wind gust potential just about everywhere outside of maybe the Pamlico Sound where a few 25 kt wind gusts could be found. As a result SCA`s will be hoisted shortly across our coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet starting tonight and remain in place across the Pamlico Sound for now. However, with recent trends not sure if the Pamlico Sound will get to SCA criteria so this SCA may be cancelled in later updates if forecast continues on this trend. Front nears the area by Wed morning allowing for winds to ease and thus ending any leftover SCA threat. This front will then track south and as this occurs winds will shift to a N`rly direction at 15-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts Wed night once again bringing a threat of SCA`s across portions of our coastal waters mainly north of Cape Hatteras. However, the biggest forecast challenge for the day will be the potential for dense seafog this morning into this evening out ahead of the incoming front. Steady SW winds and WAA will stream over cold SSTs. Conceptually this make sense to promote dense seafog at times especially across portions of the inland sounds. But, guidance is still not picking up on this signal. It is good to note, model guidance water temps are currently 10 plus degrees too high so models may struggle to pick up on this signal. To give credence to the lack of model support for seafog have just left 5 mile visibilities and patchy fog in the forecast for now but trends will need to be monitored over the next several hours to see if dense marine fog becomes a threat. Outlook: NW-N winds over the area gradually ease by the end of the week allowing for whatever leftover SCA`s that would be out to expire bringing slightly more benign conditions to our waters. But, a low pressure system is poised to work from SW to NE across the southeast US the latter half of this weekend, veering 10-15kt NE`rly winds Sat to SE`rly 15-25kt Sun. Wind and rain chances further increase through Sun night as low pressure center tracks from SW to NE toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for AMZ152-154. && $$ |
| #1259458 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:21 AM 10.Feb.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 206 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 203 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 - Benign weather continues, with mostly clear skies and mild temperatures. - Some patchy fog could develops in areas of the interior near Lake Okeechobee early this morning. - High rip current risk continues for Broward and Palm Beaches. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 203 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 Generally favorable weather conditions will continue across South Florida through the short term as surface high remains draped across the western Atlantic and the FL peninsula. Light southeasterly flow will continue to advect some low-level moisture over the area; however, lack of instability or mechanisms for ascent, along with drier air aloft, will help inhibit the development of any showers across the area. That being said, conditions on Wednesday could turn a bit cloudier as an expansive deck of high-level clouds is expected to develop as an upper level disturbance traverses the Gulf waters. Temperatures through the period will remain seasonable and mild. Highs each afternoon will peak in the high 70s and lower 80s, while overnight lows could dip into the mid 50s across the interior and lower 60s along the East Coast. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 203 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 A somewhat more progressive pattern develops late this week into early next week. Weak troughing develops across the eastern US, with an associated front dragging across the southeast US towards the Florida peninsula on Thursday. The NBM tries to bring the front south across the area, with winds veering from the north, but meager moisture ahead of the front will make this passage mostly dry and uneventful in nature. Temperatures will also remain generally unchanged as the airmass following the front will be mostly mild in nature. As we approach next weekend, a much deeper synoptic scale trough is anticipated to develop and strengthen in the lee of the Rockies before it sweeps into the Eastern Seaboard. This will provide more of a large scale forcing mechanism that may be enough to force some light rain shower activity, which is reflected in the consensus forecast package early this morning. Nevertheless, even with this stronger trough, guidance is not keen on deep moisture advection occurring, so shower activity would be expected to be more of the benign variety at this time. Daily high temperatures will stabilize after mid-week to being in the upper 70s to low 80s across the region each day. Similarly, overnight lows each night will stabilize to being in the 50s across SW Florida and low 60s for the east coast metro. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 Generally VFR conditions forecast through the period. Winds will remain light and variable til noontime, when a light southeasterly flow will develop, except at KAPF where the Gulf breeze will push in. Some patchy fog could develop across the interior early this morning, but chances of impacts to the terminals remain very low. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 Benign boating conditions continue as high pressure remains in place over the area. Light to moderate easterly-southeasterly winds will prevail each day, with a Gulf breeze forecast to develop over the local Gulf waters each afternoon. Seas will also remain favorable, ranging from 3-5 ft across the local Atlantic waters, and below 3 ft across the Gulf. && .BEACHES... Issued at 203 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 Strong onshore flow will continue to promote a moderate to high risk of rip currents for Broward and Palm Beach county beaches through the middle of the week. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 75 61 77 59 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 77 56 79 54 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 77 60 79 58 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 76 59 78 57 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 74 60 76 59 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 75 61 77 59 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 77 60 79 58 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 76 59 78 57 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 76 59 78 57 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 76 56 76 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ172. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1259456 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:21 AM 10.Feb.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 216 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Winter Weather Advisories issued for Essex, Middlesex, and Suffolk Counties for 3-4 inches snow possible tonight. Winter Weather Advisory issued for Hartford and western Hampden County for a glaze of ice possible tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... - A fast-moving clipper will bring a period of accumulating light snow starting late this afternoon through late tonight. - Quiet pattern overall with periods of nuisance light snow and minimal impacts. Temperatures moderate to near seasonable norms. Attention turns to the late weekend for a potential coastal storm, but forecast confidence remains low due track uncertainty. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A fast-moving clipper will bring a period of accumulating light snow starting late this afternoon through late tonight. A mid-level shortwave trough is expected to move into New England Tuesday night with the surface low tracking well to our north. A SW- NE LLJ accompanies the system helping advect in a plume of above normal moisture(150-200% of normal). Broad ascent ahead of the warm front and advancing LLJ will support a period of snow later today and tonight. Snow/flurries arrive late this afternoon to this evening from west to east with the most consistent showers in MA, especially north. Majority of model and ensemble guidance agrees on a light accumulation event 0.5" to 3". There will be a few things at play that could favor periods of moderate snowfall rates. Model guidance has identified warm frontogenetical forcing somewhere in east/northeast MA this evening. In addition, the advancing LLJ from the southwest will bring stronger ascent as it pushes closer late tonight. Model soundings show sufficient lift within the dendritic growth zone this evening and tonight, showing a favorable environment for more enhanced snow rates. As a result, bands with moderate snow rates are possible with the highest chances for MA with the most consistent banding positioned over northeast MA. For timing, this evening through late tonight is the more likely timeframe to see periods of moderate snow before dry air works in aloft. Precipitation exits the region early Wednesday morning. HREF probabilities reflect this with 50-70% probabilities across Essex County for 3" snow or greater, but lower probs for greater than 4". Additional counties show potential for closer to 3" inches in surrounding counties such as Middlesex County. All this means is these favored areas for enhanced snowfall, we could see locally up to 4 or 5, mainly in northeast MA. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued in those areas. Have kept an eye on the secondary low development offshore of the Cape. Its associated inverted trough is more likely favored to impact areas further north (Maine) based on the low position/track. This lowers the risk for another mesoscale forcer to bring enhanced snowfall in our region. With a warm nose pushing in from the south, a wintry mix or change to rain is possible late tonight/early Wed AM, especially along the immediate south coast and Cape/Islands. Model soundings indicate potential for a change over to freezing rain in Hartford County and in the Berkshires late tonight. This would likely be a brief period, but potentially enough to bring a glaze of ice. As a result we issued a Winter Weather Advisory for those areas for the light glaze of ice possible. Towards the end of the event (after midnight), the upper/mid-levels dry fairly quickly leaving it saturated at the lower levels. Patchy freezing drizzle may be possible for the full column dries out Wednesday morning. Model soundings have been borderline with showing this potential lowering confidence/coverage of the drizzle. Snow amounts will be limited as a result further south (less than 2"). KEY MESSAGE 2...- Quiet pattern overall with periods of nuisance light snow and minimal impacts. Temperatures moderate to near seasonable norms. Attention turns to the late weekend for a potential coastal storm, but forecast confidence remains low due track uncertainty. Wednesday through Saturday feature generally benign weather. A surface low exits east of the coastal waters on Wednesday as high pressure builds across the Midwest. While the pressure gradient is modest, it will support northwest wind gusts of 20-30 mph Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures remain seasonable in the mid to upper 30s, though wind chills will fall into the 20s. As the surface low departs Wednesday night, a subtle inverted trough extending westward may produce a few snow showers, mainly across Cape Ann and areas southward to outer Cape Cod into early Thursday morning. Moisture is limited and forcing is not well aligned with the dendritic growth zone, limiting snowfall to a light coating at most. Otherwise, surface high pressure builds across the eastern CONUS through the end of the week, maintaining seasonable temperatures. An upper-level low and northern-stream shortwave cross New England Friday night into early Saturday, bringing a low (<30%) probability of snow showers. This remains a moisture-starved system with PWATs below climatological normals, though minor accumulations are possible across the higher terrain of northern and western Massachusetts. Looking ahead, guidance continues to signal the potential for a coastal late this weekend into early next week. Predictability remains low at this range. Most 00z deterministic guidance (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and AI guidance) favors a track well offshore and no impacts to southern New England. The UKMET remains an outlier with a closer solution near the benchmark. At this time, confidence in any impacts remains low, though the system bears monitoring. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update... Through 12Z...High confidence. VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts. Mid-level cloud decks in central and western southern New England. Today...Moderate confidence. VFR and dry to start. VFR cloud bases as light snow moves in during the afternoon from west to east (19-21Z arrival in western MA and 23-00Z arrival at BOS). Ceilings drop to MVFR around or after 00Z. Light NW winds in the morning trend toward the SW after 15Z. Tonight...Moderate confidence. IFR/LIFR in snow, moderate at times possible especially across northern MA, including KBOS. Steadiest snow roughly 00z-05z. Snow may end as rain along the south coast. Can`t rule out patchy -FZDZ after the bulk of precipitation has ended; however, this is low confidence. Wednesday...High confidence in trends. Improving ceilings through the morning. NW winds gusts up 20-25 kts. KBOS Terminal...Moderate Confidence. -SN arrives more likely between 23-00Z. Ceilings should trend downward as steadier snow develops after 00Z. Period of moderate snow tonight between 00-06Z. This would bring briefly lower visibilities (1/2SM) and IFR/LIFR ceilings. Snow moves out by 09Z. KBDL Terminal...Moderate Confidence. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday through Friday: VFR. Breezy. Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN. Saturday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tuesday through Wednesday Night...High Confidence. Seas continue to subside this morning, with wave heights of 2-4 ft. Southwest winds remain 10-15 kt with occasional gusts up to 20-22 kt. A surface low moves across northern into central New England tonight, then emerges offshore of southern New England Wednesday morning. In the wake of this system, southwest winds increase and veer to the west-northwest at 15-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt on Wednesday. Seas build to 4-7 ft on the southern outer waters and 3-6 ft on the eastern outer waters. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed mid-morning Wednesday through Wednesday night. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of snow. Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Freezing spray. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of snow. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Wednesday for CTZ002. MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Wednesday for MAZ005>007-009-014-015-026. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ250- 254>256. && $$ |
| #1259457 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:21 AM 10.Feb.2026) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 305 AM AST Tue Feb 10 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 305 AM AST Tue Feb 10 2026 * Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions will continue along north-facing beaches, with high surf impacts through Wednesday afternoon, a high rip current risk through Thursday afternoon, and minor coastal flooding possible in vulnerable low-lying areas through this afternoon, especially around high tide. * Hazardous marine conditions will persist through midweek due to elevated seas and long-period swell, creating dangerous conditions for mariners and small craft. * Breezy to locally windy conditions will persist across coastal and exposed areas, contributing to hazardous conditions. * Cloudy but generally tranquil conditions will persist, with cooler-than-normal temperatures through Wednesday, followed by a gradual warming trend and increasing rain potential late in the week, with more stable conditions expected into the weekend. && .Short Term(Today through Thursday)... Issued at 305 AM AST Tue Feb 10 2026 Fair weather conditions largely prevailed overnight, though skies remained mostly cloudy due to persistent mid- to upper-level cloud cover associated with a nearby frontal boundary. Radar indicated an area of light to occasionally moderate rainfall streaming eastward through much of the night before gradually dissipating; rainfall amounts were generally under a quarter of an inch across parts of northern Puerto Rico, portions of the local islands, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with no significant impacts observed. Overnight minimum temperatures so far have dropped into the upper 50s across higher elevations, while coastal areas and the U.S. Virgin Islands remain in the upper 70s, with some additional cooling possible toward sunrise. Northerly winds persisted overnight at 510 mph across most coastal areas, increasing to around 15 mph with occasional gusts in more exposed locations. A broad and strong surface high pressure system over the western Atlantic will dominate the synoptic pattern today and tonight, maintaining a tight pressure gradient and driving strong northerly to north-northeasterly winds across the region. Sustained winds around 2025 knots, with higher gusts exceeding 30 mph, will affect coastal areas and higher terrain, supporting continued cool air advection and keeping temperatures below normal through tonight. Strong low-level flow will result in a higher frequency of trade-wind showers, mainly affecting northern Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, while an upper-level disturbance and associated short-wave trough brushing the northeastern Caribbean may briefly weaken the trade- wind inversion and allow for limited periods of deeper moisture. Despite this, rainfall amounts are expected to remain light, with any impacts confined to localized ponding of water and isolated minor urban flooding. Overall, strong non-thunderstorm winds will remain the primary hazard, with only a very low potential for thunderstorms and localized minor flooding, neither of which is included in the general forecast. As the surface high shifts farther east, winds will veer from northeasterly to east-northeasterly on Wednesday, remaining breezy through Wednesday night before gradually weakening late Wednesday night into Thursday while continuing to veer to east-southeasterly to southeasterly. A weak mid-level ridge moving across the region Wednesday into early Thursday will allow the trade-wind inversion to briefly rebuild and limit vertical moisture development. By Thursday, a short-wave trough digging deeper into the Caribbean, combined with veering low-level flow, will pull a band of deeper tropical moisture northeastward across the area. Increased deep- layer moisture and more favorable conditions aloft, including cooling and upper-level divergence, will support heavier rain showers on Thursday, with localized flooding possible, mainly in urban and poor-drainage areas. Temperatures will begin a gradual warming trend on Thursday, especially as winds shift to the southeast and cooler air advection weakens. Drier air will move in behind the moisture band late Thursday night, with the departure of the trough and the development of a mid-level ridge promoting increased subsidence and more stable conditions. Winds will remain the primary hazard on Wednesday, while localized flooding becomes the main concern on Thursday; a low potential for isolated thunderstorms exists but is not included in the forecast. && .Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)... Issued at 305 AM AST Tue Feb 10 2026 The long-term forecast remains on track as a weak upper-level trough approaches the local islands from the northwest. At the surface, a high-pressure system over the central Atlantic will continue to shift eastward, promoting light to moderate southeasterly winds through Sunday. Winds will then shift from the east as another surface high builds over the western Atlantic and migrates toward the central Atlantic through the end of the period. By Monday and Tuesday, a mid-to-upper-level ridge will establish across the region, promoting stable conditions aloft. The latest precipitable water (PWAT) analysis reflects this stability, showing values within the seasonal climatological range of 1.20 to 1.50 inches. Under this pattern, trade-wind moisture will bring passing morning showers to portions of eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by afternoon convective activity over central and western Puerto Rico. Given the current outlook, the flooding threat remains limited, particularly through the first half of the period. Temperatures at the 925 mb level will gradually rise to above-normal levels starting Friday as southeasterly flow brings abundant moisture. Consequently, humid and warm conditions are expected to persist through the weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 305 AM AST Tue Feb 10 2026 All TAF sites will remain VFR thru the fcst pd under persistent midupper lvl clds, with ocnl brief vsby reductions psbl in trade- wind SHRA. VCSH may affect most terminals thru the day, with the highest coverage and impacts over nrn PR and USVI sites, though no sig flt cat restrictions xpctd. Sfc winds NNNE will persist thru the pd, 812 kt early, incrg to 1620 kt aft 10/13Z, then easing to 1015 kt aft 10/23Z, with ocnl gsts. Overall, the fcst pd will be dominated by strong N flow and gsty conds, which will be the primary aviation concern, with ocnl mech turb psbl near trrn and coastal terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 305 AM AST Tue Feb 10 2026 A surface high pressure moving off the US coast will yield moderate to fresh northerly winds through late tonight. A weak frontal boundary will linger over the region during the next few days, promoting cloudiness and light to moderate showers. A large, long period north-northwest swell will continue to bring hazardous seas across the Atlantic waters and passages through at least early Thursday. Seas will peak overnight around 13 feet. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for most local waters exposed to the NW swell. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 305 AM AST Tue Feb 10 2026 A large, long-period north-northwest swell will continue to spread across the Atlantic waters and local Caribbean passages over the next few days. The peak of this swell event is expected through this morning. Current observations at the San Juan buoy (41053) show seas around 12 feet with periods of 14 to 15 seconds, which could result in breaking waves of approximately 13 to 16 feet, and occasionally higher. High surf conditions, life-threatening rip currents, and minor coastal flooding are expected with this large breaking wave action along the northwest to northeast coasts of Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands. A Coastal Flood Advisory, High Surf Advisory, and High Rip Current Statements remain in effect. Life-threatening rip currents will be the main coastal hazard across the northern exposed beaches of St. Croix. Beachgoers are urged to stay out of the water, continue monitoring forecast updates, and follow all local advisories, warnings, and guidance from lifeguards and local officials as conditions continue to deteriorate. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001- 002-005-008-010-012. High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST Wednesday for PRZ001-002-005- 008-010-012. High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for PRZ011- 013. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ013. VI...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001. High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for VIZ001. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST Wednesday for VIZ001. High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for VIZ002. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Thursday for AMZ711-712-716- 723-726-733-741-742-745. && $$ |
| #1259454 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 AM 10.Feb.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 120 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for 06Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry to start the period with rain returning Wednesday into Wednesday night and again late week through at least the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry to start the period with rain returning Wednesday into Wednesday night and again late week through at least the weekend. High pressure will shift offshore allowing a warm front to lift north through the area today bringing unseasonably warm temperatures near 70 most locales. A cold front will then move through Wednesday and Wednesday night bringing some mainly light rain, generally up to around a quarter of an inch. High pressure will then return with dry and cooler weather through late week with low rain chances Friday through Saturday evening. Rain chances will then likely increase Saturday night through at least Sunday night as a more potent storm system impacts the area. Although there remains some uncertainty in the evolution of this system the risk for any hazardous weather appears to be quite low at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High confidence for VFR conditions continues through the period as lingering dry air largely precludes the formation of fog tonight. However, with clear skies and calm or light winds overlapping with considerably higher dew points than the last few nights, the possibility for shallow fog still exists in favored locations near swamps, creeks, and rivers early this morning. Any patchy/shallow fog will quickly dissipate after sunrise as strong heating mixes down southwesterly winds aloft. A period of gusty winds around 15-20 kts may occur during peak heating (18-21Z) as the boundary layer deepens, but a lingering subsidence inversion may be strong enough to preclude mixing these stronger winds down. Otherwise, the arrival of these stronger southwesterly winds will bring in a short window of marginal LLWS at KFLO early this morning before near-surface winds pick up. All sites should anticipate LLWS due to WSW flow near the end of the period as a cold front approaches. Extended Forecast...Flight restrictions due to low clouds are possible late tonight. Intermittent sea fog could also impact the coastal terminals tonight into early Wednesday prior to a cold frontal passage. The front could also bring some restrictions from rain and/or low clouds on Wednesday. VFR is expected to return Wednesday night and dominate through the end of the week with restrictions possible again on Saturday. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Offshore high pressure will cause winds to settle on southwesterly today and increase to around 15-20 kts tonight. Seas will respond to this increase in winds with 1-3 ft waves this morning rising to 3-5 ft tonight. Gusts to around 25kts and seas up to 6 ft are possible in the outer waters near 20nmi southeast of Cape Fear, but too little of the coastal water zones around Cape Fear are included for a Small Craft Advisory across an entire zone. Nevertheless, small craft operators should use caution, especially if venturing 10-20 nmi southeast of Cape Fear. Seas will consist of southwesterly wind waves and lingering 1-3 ft easterly swells with a period of 12-13 sec. Wednesday through Saturday night...No significant concerns thru the period. There is a low risk for marginal SCA conditions (gusts around 25 kt and 6 ft seas) Wed and again late Sat night. Also, there is a low risk for sea fog Wed due to a slightly moister air mass moving in ahead of the cold front. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1259453 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 AM 10.Feb.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 126 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Snowfall amounts continued to increase slightly for late Tuesday into Tuesday night, mainly across northern and northeast MA. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Another cold night tonight, but with less wind. - A quick moving clipper system will bring a period of accumulating snow late Tue into Tue night. - Upcoming period of dry, sunny days with seasonable temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Another cold night tonight, but with less wind. Ridge of high pressure advecting west to east across New England tonight. This will support mainly clear conditions and diminishing winds, combined with a deep snowpack. This will result in lows in the single digits regionwide. The exception will be along the immediate coast, Cape and islands, along with the urban areas where mins will settle in the teens. Not as cold as previous nights, nonetheless, colder than normal. Also, not as much of a wind chill factor given the light winds. Minimum temps were derived from the NBM and MOS datasets. We didn`t want to follow the coldest guidance, as some mid level cloudiness from time to time overnight by preclude the coldest temp from verifying. Nevertheless, a chilly/colder than normal night. Key message 2...A quick moving clipper system will bring a period of accumulating snow late Tue into Tue night. Fairly potent northern stream shortwave moves into northern New England Tue night...as the parent surface low passes to the north. First band of warm advection light snow/flurries will overspread the area 4PM-7PM west to east. Little if any accumulation will occur with this first round. The steadier/accumulating snowfall will occur roughly between 7 PM and midnight. This will be more dynamical driven and will be accompanied by a 2-4 hour window of moderate snow, supported by 10-15 ubar/s of lift in the DGZ. This strong forcing for ascent induces a weak secondary low that tries to develop along the boundary over or near SE MA. Snow may end as period of rain along the south coast, in response to modest low level WAA. Elsewhere, snow may end as a brief period of freezing drizzle, as the DGZ dries out after midnight. Given all the parameters above, expecting a coating up to 2 inches of snowfall across CT/RI and southeast MA, possible followed by a trace of ice before ending. For northern MA, 1-3" is likely with localized amounts of 4+ in northeast MA, followed by a trace of ice before ending. If 00z guidance trends stronger/more qpf, the evening/night shift may issue winter weather headlines. Stay tuned. Key Message 3...Upcoming period of dry, sunny days with seasonable temperatures. Expecting a few days of dry weather after the clipper system moves through Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Winds return to predominately northwesterly Wednesday, then high pressure begins to build in over the Midwest/Mid-Atlantic regions Thursday. Once the arctic airmass finally gets pushed offshore, we`ll see a return to more seasonable temperatures. High temperatures make it back to the mid to upper 30s over southern New England from Wednesday onward, though nighttime lows will still fall into the teens and low 20s, with some spots in the interior in the single digits. Thankfully though, wind chills will not be as low as we have seen over the last few weeks. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update... Through 12Z...High confidence. VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts. Mid-level cloud decks in central and western southern New England. Today...Moderate confidence. VFR and dry to start. VFR cloud bases as light snow moves in during the afternoon from west to east (19-21Z arrival in western MA and 23-00Z arrival at BOS). Ceilings drop to MVFR around or after 00Z. Light NW winds in the morning trend toward the SW after 15Z. Tonight...Moderate confidence. IFR/LIFR in snow, moderate at times possible especially across northern MA, including KBOS. Steadiest snow roughly 00z-05z. Snow may end as rain along the south coast. Can`t rule out patchy -FZDZ after the bulk of precipitation has ended; however, this is low confidence. Wednesday...High confidence in trends. Improving ceilings through the morning. NW winds gusts up 20-25 kts. KBOS Terminal...Moderate Confidence. -SN arrives more likely between 23-00Z. Ceilings should trend downward as steadier snow develops after 00Z. Period of moderate snow tonight between 00-06Z. This would bring briefly lower visibilities (1/2SM) and IFR/LIFR ceilings. Snow moves out by 09Z. KBDL Terminal...Moderate Confidence. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. This evening...high confidence. Gusty WNW winds up to 25 kt diminish with sunset, along with freezing spray ending. Tuesday...high confidence. Light west wind in the morning, becoming SW in the afternoon, 10-15 kt. Light snow/flurries may briefly limit vsby late. Tuesday night...moderate confidence. SSW winds 10-15 kt Tue evening, becoming west after midnight. Snow may lower vsby to 1 mile or less across the northern MA waters, 1-3 miles elsewhere, possibly ending as rain southern waters. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of snow. Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ250- 254>256. && $$ |
| #1259452 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:30 AM 10.Feb.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 118 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Morning & Late Night Fog Late Tonight/Tuesday. Localized Superfog Risk Near Wildfires - Severe to Extreme Drought Continues - Moderate Rip Current Risk through Tuesday - Cold Front Expected Late in the Weekend. Isolated Thunderstorms & Windy Conditions Possible && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Conditions are clear early this morning as a weak shortwave exits to the southeast. High pressure ridge axis extends over the area from the northeast. Some pockets of patchy fog have been observed early this morning, but due to a dry airmass lingering the fog will be short lived, however areas of fog will develop and persist over the next few hours west of I-75 as some increase in low level moisture will feed in from the Gulf where lows dip into the upper 30s to around 40 degrees with temps elsewhere lowering to the low 40s by sunrise. Some locally dense fog and superfog would be more likely in these areas near wildfire activity. Brunswick will see patchy to areas of sea fog drift onshore through the predawn hours. Today, patchy/areas of fog will lift by 8AM. High pressure will shift more to the east with the ridge axis shifting south of the area. This will allow for southwest winds 5-10 mph to prevail under sunny skies with high cirrus arriving late this afternoon well downstream of a cold front moving into the Ozarks and TN river valley. Highs will warm well above average away from the coast into the upper 70s over NE FL and the mid/upper 70s over SE GA with highs near 70 degrees along the coast from Fernandina Beach to Brunswick and low 70s south to the Flagler coast. Tonight, mid and high level clouds increase as the cold front approaches the area from the northwest with isolated to scattered showers spreading eastward across southern GA into areas north of US82. The clouds, showers, and winds elevating to 8-12 mph over these SE GA locations will keep lows a bit warmer in the mid 50s while light winds and more clearing from the high pressure ridge over the FL peninsula will allow lows to fall to the mid to upper 40s south of I-10 over NE FL with low 50s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... On Wednesday, a parade of upper shortwaves will round the ridge and pass across the region as a cold front sinks southward into the SE US. Rounds of showers will move through ahead of and along the front mainly for areas north of I-10. Lingering dry air will generally keep rainfall amounts light. Warm WSW flow will maintain above seasonable temperatures on Wednesday with highs in the 70s. The cold front weakens as it moves south across the area Wednesday night and into central FL on Thursday. Brief coastal trough develops in the wake of the front on Thursday developing NE flow. This will create a temperature gradient with highs in the low 60s along the SE GA coast to the upper 70s in north-central FL. The diffused frontal boundary then lifts back northward up the FL peninsula Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A warm front stalls across the area on Friday bringing a couple of light showers along the boundary mainly across SE GA. Meanwhile, an upper trough over the SW US deepens and becomes a closed low as it treks eastward across the southern Plains. Its associated surface low will lift the warm front north our area Saturday into Sunday. Showers increase Saturday night and become more widespread on Sunday ahead of the approaching cold front. Continued SSW flow will usher in warm, moist air from the Gulf to the area maintaining above seasonable temperatures and dewpoints rising into the 60s by Sunday. Have added mention of isolated thunderstorms for Sunday afternoon but it is too soon to determine the potential for strong/severe thunderstorm potential due to continued model uncertainty with the evolution of this system. Showers taper off Monday as the cold front exits the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Mostly VFR conditions to start the 06Z TAF period with clear skies and light fog near SSI and VQQ. Have tempo restrictions for MVFR to IFR fog at SSI and VQQ with MVFR fog from 07/08Z to 12Z at JAX and GNV and VFR fog approaching 6 miles at CRG and SGJ for the same time window. Thereafter, high pressure moving more to the east will produce light southwest winds increasing to 6-8 knots this afternoon with a Atlantic seabreeze turning winds south to southeasterly 8-10 knots at SSI and SGJ. High clouds will slowly increase from few late this morning to scattered and then broken by this evening with southwest winds resuming at all sites around 5 knots after 00Z. && .MARINE... High pressure to the northeast this morning will shift more east of the waters today with a long period easterly swell keeping elevated seas through this evening. The high will shift southeast of the region Wednesday as a weakening front approaches with increasing westerly winds and isolated to scattered showers. The front will stall and linger over south Florida Thursday with northeast winds over local waters. The front will morph into a lifting warm front late Friday into Saturday. Rain chances increase this weekend as a stronger cold front approaches from the west late Saturday into Sunday with winds increasing to Small Craft Advisory levels. Rip Currents: Solid Moderate rip current risk today as easterly swells with periods of up to 11-13 seconds continue to produce surf/breakers into the 3-4 ft range at local beaches. Easterly swells will continue a moderate risk of rip currents Wednesday despite offshore flow from the west southwest due to surf/breakers of 3-4 ft. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy High Dispersions Today And Wednesday Dry weather conditions continue today with critically low min RHs in the 20s across inland northeast Florida. West-southwesterly winds increase today into Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. This will result in good dispersions with patchy high dispersions this afternoon and on Wednesday. Moisture increases with the influx of moisture from the Gulf increasing RHs into 50s. Isolated showers will move through mainly southeast Georgia Wednesday into Wednesday night. Accumulations will be light. The cold front passes through the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Brief high pressure builds in for Thursday resulting in poor to fair dispersions. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy to areas of fog will be possible across inland NE FL and SE GA this morning, with denser fog occurring in proximity with wildfire smoke. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 74 53 76 46 / 0 20 40 10 SSI 70 52 71 50 / 0 10 30 30 JAX 78 50 76 51 / 0 10 20 10 SGJ 75 51 74 54 / 0 10 10 10 GNV 78 47 76 52 / 0 0 10 10 OCF 77 46 75 53 / 0 0 0 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1259451 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:15 AM 10.Feb.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1205 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm, and more humid weather is expected through the week. - Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning as a disturbance moves through. - Potential for areas of fog and sea fog during the nighttime and morning hours during the overnight into morning hours through much of the week. Higher than normal uncertainty in the fog forecast (see discussion below). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1103 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 The low coming off of the Baja Peninsula will become less- amplified and evolve into a trough as it progresses east towards Texas. This continues to hint at less of a convective scenario and more of an isolated to potentially scattered showers event Tuesday evening into Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure stationed to the east will continue pulling moisture inland, resulting in humid and warmer conditions through much of the week. The other event to note is the fog that has the potential to cause impacts along the coast and inland through the rest of the week. While the current setup favors the development of fog during the overnight to early morning hours, strong winds in the boundary layer do make the forecast a bit trickier (particularly over the bays and Gulf Waters). A southerly jet (15-20 kts) is anticipated tonight into Tuesday morning...while southerly flow is generally more conducive to fog development, the strength of the winds could inhibit more dense fog. Have maintained fog in the forecast with the potential for dense fog in some locations. As winds decrease going further into the week, the threat of fog will increase in response. The exception being along the coast, where SST may warm enough in response to the warmer airmass, which would limit dense fog development. Weekend rain chances are still being monitored as models continue to depict another subtropical trough/low over NW Mexico closer to the end of the workweek. This trough is progged to move into Texas over the course for the weekend and should maintain enough strength to warrant a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area. Will continue to keep an eye on it as we get closer to the weekend. Daytime temperatures through the week will be in the mid 70s to low 80s inland and in the 60s along the coast. Nighttime temperatures will be in the 50s to low 60s. With this weekend`s system, may see cooler nighttime temperatures (in the 40s to low 50s). With that being near the end of the forecast period, not going to get too hung up on those numbers just yet. Bailey && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 450 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 VFR conditions and southerly winds in the 8-12 kt range will prevail going into the evening hours. Like the previous nights, fog potential and low cloud ceilings will be the main story for this TAF period. The main window for fog potential will be from 08Z-15Z. Generally, the highest confidence for fog development will be for terminals near and south of CXO. However, due to winds just above the surface gradually increasing overnight into early Tuesday morning, there is potential that there could be enough mixing to limit visibility reductions. In contrast, model guidance has been underperforming on the fog forecast the past couple of nights, so opted to roll with persistence in this TAF package. Any fog that develops will subside by 15Z-16Z. MVFR ceilings may linger through 17Z-18Z before returning to VFR. Winds will be gustier Tuesday as well with sustained winds around 10-15 kt and gusts up to 20-25 kt through the afternoon. Another round of fog and low ceilings is anticipated Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Batiste/Ehlert/Hernandez && .MARINE... Issued at 1103 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 The primary concern this week will be the prospect of sea fog and the higher than normal uncertainty in the fog forecast. Generally light to moderate onshore flow will push high moisture levels over chilly waters through the end of the week. This is normally a very favorable setup for sea fog, especially at night and during the morning hours. However, winds just above the surface have been on the strong side (roughly 20 knots a few hundred feet above the ground). Despite not being at the surface, these winds can lessen the severity and areal extent of fog. Last night, those winds aloft were from the southwest, a particularly unfavorable direction for sea fog. Tonight, those winds aloft will be more from the south, which is a more direction favorable relatively speaking (southeast being the most preferred). So the direction of the wind is expected to become more favorable, while wind speeds aloft remain a little too strong. That being said, fog could be more widespread if these winds manage to be a few knots lower than forecast. Model guidance is suggesting lighter winds aloft as we approach the middle to later portion of the week, suggesting the sea fog risk could rise. However, this will also depend on how much water temperatures respond to the warm, sunny weather in the coming days. That being said, our forecast continues to show a daily risk of sea fog through the end of the week, with the best chance of fog occurring during the overnight and morning hours. A system by the end of the week could bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms, along with increasing winds and seas. Confidence in the forecast that far out is low. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 61 77 59 76 / 0 10 30 20 Houston (IAH) 62 78 61 79 / 0 10 20 30 Galveston (GLS) 60 68 59 69 / 0 10 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1259450 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:09 AM 10.Feb.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1204 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1203 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 - Dense fog is expected tonight, reducing visibilities to below 1/4 of a mile over land areas and below 1 mile over marine zones. Use extra time and caution when traveling tonight and Tuesday morning. - Much above normal temperatures will occur Monday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1203 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 Now through Monday... An upper level shortwave trough over the Southeast moves off tonight. A closed upper low off the Pacific coast of Mexico moves east into mid week, opening as it shifts an upper ridge over the Plains to over the Southeast. This shortwave trough passes over the Southeast Wednesday through Wednesday night. A surface high shifts to over the Carolinas before moving over the Caribbean into mid week, resulting in a more organized onshore flow over the northern Gulf coast, bringing Gulf moisture inland. The tightest pressure gradient is being advertised over the Lower Mississippi River Valley Tuesday before shifting east over the western Southeast. Guidance is advertising precipitable h20 values rising into the 1.1"-1.3" range, with higher levels north of the forecast area along a cold front sagging south over the Southeast. Overrunning over this cold front will provide the best chance for precipitation mid week. Instability is marginal at best, so am not expecting any rumbles to mix in. For the latter half of the week through the weekend, guidance is advertising a stronger shortwave passing over the Southeast over the coming weekend. Moisture levels see an uptick into the weekend, into the 1.3"-1.5" range. Instability has crept up in the guidance, especially later Saturday night into Sunday. Winds shear is on the decent side, with Bulk Wind Shear around 45kts. Mid level lapse rates in the 6.5-7.0C range is also indicated. Wind profiles on model soundings show a linear profile, limiting any spinners. Will need to monitor, though, with plenty of time for ingredients to change. We are still looking at fog issues tonight into mid week. With warmer, moist flow over cooler waters (water temperatures in the 50s to low 60s) over protected and near shore waters, along with modest low level flow, increasing chances of dense fog is expected. Am anticipating Dense Fog Advisories for land and protected/near shore waters continuing into mid week. Temperatures above seasonal norms are expected through the forecast, with high temperatures in the 70s over most of the area (lower where the fog hangs in longer closer to the coast). Some cooling occurs Sunday and Monday as the coming system moves through. Low temperatures in the 50s are expected over most of the area through the week. Modest onshore flow through the week will keep onshore swell low. Even with an increasing tidal range, a Low Risk of Rip Currents is expected. Onshore flow increases in the coming weekend, with the Rip Risk rising to Moderate to High. /16 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 Spotty dense fog with VLIFR conditions is expected to become widespread across the area overnight, then improve to VFR by/during mid morning. Calm or light southerly winds become southerly/southwesterly around 10 knots on Tuesday. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 1203 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 ight to at times moderate onshore flow will become offshore for a short period late Wednesday into Thursday as a weak front sags south across area waters. Development of dense fog is expected over near shore and protected waters tonight into Wednesday as warm Gulf air flows over cooler Gulf waters. Onshore flow returns by the Saturday and strengthens to moderate to strong over the weekend as a system approaches from the west. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 56 76 54 73 / 0 20 0 10 Pensacola 57 74 54 70 / 10 10 10 10 Destin 59 71 54 69 / 10 20 10 10 Evergreen 55 76 47 73 / 10 20 10 10 Waynesboro 56 76 50 71 / 10 20 10 10 Camden 57 74 48 70 / 20 20 10 10 Crestview 54 77 49 74 / 0 10 10 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ051>060- 261>266. FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for FLZ201>206. MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ067-075- 076-078-079. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ630>636- 650-655. && $$ |
| #1259449 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 AM 10.Feb.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 105 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Snow is out of the forecast late week. SCA conditions likely with FROPA for select marine zones. First SCA issued for Pam Sound as an early heads up with SCAs ongoing for some coastal waters. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Brief warming trend ahead of cold front to pass WED and stalling S of the FA, bringing the next chance of rain. 2) After another reprieve of cool-ish high pressure behind the stalled front. The front lifts back Nward as a warm front ahead of a low pressure system slated to work from SW to NE across SECONUS leading to a wet weekend. MARINE...SCA conditions continue for some coastal waters, with conditions improving tonight before the next set of possible SCA conditions late TUE into WED. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure slides Sward across the FA tonight leading to SWerly flow regime into midweek ahead of a cold front that will track across ENC WED. This will allow MaxTs to get back into the low 60s for SWern zones, low to mid 50s NE TUE underneath mostly sunny skies. Clouds, SWerly winds, and rain chances increase from SW to NE through the day WED. Only light accumulations expected with light stratiform rain due to less than impressive moisture recovery through the column ahead of FROPA, less than a tenth of an inch. The front is currently forecast to cross through the morning WED, with weak Nerly surge following latter half of WED. The front is expected to stall to the S with cool high pressure filling in over the FA, but not nearly as cold as the last few bouts of Arctic air we`ve had to deal with lately. Late week MaxTs in the Mid40 to low 50s with early morning MinTs in the upper 20s inland, mid to upper 30s coast. Forecast has trended dry through FRI with high pressure dominating, leading to little to no chance of precip and therefore, no snow chances as well. KEY MESSAGE 2...A weak low will develop along the stalled boundary in the Southern Plains and track ENE to NEward late-week. Stacked trough cuts across SWern CONUS first half of the weekend, eventually nudging the meandering boundary that had been stalled to the S, Nward through the FA late Saturday. Precip chances increase from this point forward as the FA becomes warm sectored with the center of the low progressing SW to NE W of the FA toward the Mid-Atlantic coast SUN night. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with occasional deck of mid-level clouds currently over the coast expected to shift offshore in the next few hours. Light winds tonight will give way to southwesterly flow tomorrow morning with occasional gusts as high pressure shifts offshore. Outlook: Guidance suggesting pred VFR expected at the TAF sites through the rest of the week, however warm air advection ramps up could see shallow fog develop Tuesday night, although guidance keeps probs below 10% attm. What may be more likely is sea fog developing across cooler sounds and nearshore waters along the Crystal coast that could affect coastal terminals, i.e. MRH/MQI/FFA from Tuesday afternoon into mid day Wednesday. REFS continues to be the only guidance showing a strong signal for sea fog and will continue to watch guidance for trends, although conceptual pattern would favor its occurrence. A weak cold front moving through the region Wednesday could provide some brief periods of MVFR, though guidance is trending drier with this system. Any sea fog will likely dissipate once the front pushes through the area. Guidance is also trending drier for the Friday system. && .MARINE... High pressure slides Sward through the overnight leading to light and var winds becoming SWerly and strengthening through the day TUE. 6ft seas linger over outer waters currently, keeping SCAs in place for coastal waters N of Ocracoke Inlet into tonight/early TUE. Of note is a chance for the development of sea fog in the early morning TUE into TUE evening as winds become SW and WAA streams over cold SSTs. Confidence is low with minimal guidance biting onto this so there is no mention of this in the grids, but the potential is worth noting here as conceptual models show at least a low probability of occurrence. SWerly winds increase second half of TUE ahead of a cold front that will cross area waters WED bringing SCA criteria SWerly winds and chances of light rain. Have issued SCA for PamSound overnight TUE as an early heads up for mariners as active SCAs preclude further issuance for coastal waters. Have some gusts approaching Gales over outer waters near GStream in the strengthening prefrontal SWerly flow. Outlook: Winds turning to the NW/N through the end of the work week with marginal Small Craft conditions possible behind the front that will stall to the S. A low pressure system is poised to work from SW to NE across the southeast US the latter half of this weekend, veering 10-15kt NEerly winds SAT to SEerly 15-20kt early SUN. Winds and rain chances further increase through SUN night as low pressure center tracks from SW to NE toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for AMZ152-154. && $$ |
| #1259448 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 AM 10.Feb.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1257 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 00z Aviation Discussion. Precipitation chances have increased for this weekend. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Milder weather returns tomorrow into Wednesday. 2) A stronger storm system approaches this weekend, bringing a chance for widespread rainfall and potentially some wintry precipitation across far NW portions the area. && .DISCUSSION... As of 200 PM EST Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Milder weather returns tomorrow into Wednesday. We are still expecting a brief warmup starting tomorrow and continuing into Wednesday as a ridge builds over the Gulf towards the local area. A warm front lifts through the area on Tuesday morning, with winds becoming SW in its wake. Temperatures warm into the 50s to lower 60s for most inland locations. Temperatures only warm into the mid to upper 40s across the Eastern Shore due to the very cold water temperatures (30s). Low temperatures on Tuesday night likely stay above freezing area-wide, with temperatures ranging from the low-mid 40s SW to the mid 30s NE. A cold front crosses the area on Wednesday morning. This front is expected to be mainly dry, but a few showers are possible across far southern portions of the area (mainly NE NC). Latest DESI probs have ~40-50% for 0.01" and ~15% for 0.10" or greater rainfall with this front. Otherwise, skies clear out quickly Wednesday AM and downsloping NW winds should help to counter any significant CAA. Temperatures will rise into the 50s to perhaps lower 60s again (warmest south) for much of the area. NE and across the Eastern Shore, temperatures will again stay in the mid to upper 40s due to colder waters. KEY MESSAGE 2...A stronger storm system approaches this weekend, bringing a chance for widespread rainfall and potentially some wintry precipitation across far NW portions the area. The warmup this week will be brief with a return to slightly below normal temperatures by Thursday, potentially continuing into this weekend. Chances for any snow showers on Friday continue to diminish and PoPs have been removed from the forecast. Confidence continues to increase that low pressure will impact the area this weekend, with both deterministic and ensemble guidance coming into better agreement. The low likely tracks into the TN Valley Saturday night into Sunday morning, eventually tracking over the local area or along the coast Sunday into Sunday night. Rain continues to be the favored precipitation type for the majority of the area with this system. The Latest EPS shows mean precipitation totals ~1.00" for a majority of the area through Sunday night. The latest GEFS remains slightly lower, showing ~0.50" to 0.75" area- wide. Cannot rule out some brief wintry weather at the onset of this system Sunday AM, mainly across our far NW counties. It should be noted however that snow probs are decreasing at this time, with the 12z EPS now showing a ~20-30% chance for 1" or greater of accumulating snow. The 12z GEFS is slightly higher (~30%) but has decreased from the 00z run which was around 50%. Still, this will be something to watch over the coming days. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1255 AM EST Tuesday... High pressure is centered in vicinity of the coast as of 06z. VFR with BKN-OVC mid and high clouds and a calm to light S wind. VFR conditions are expected to prevail today into tonight as high pressure slowly shifts offshore. BKN-OVC mid and high clouds persist this morning and then lift to the NE later this morning into the aftn. The wind becomes SW 5-10kt today into tonight, with some LLWS possible later tonight. Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions are expected from Wednesday through Saturday. There is a low chance for some scattered light rain showers early Wednesday morning as a cold front drops across the area, mainly across southern portions of the area. Otherwise, high pressure prevails through Saturday. && .MARINE... As of 200 PM EST Monday... Key Messages: - Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions return tonight through midweek. - A cold front crosses the area late Tuesday into Wednesday with potential for marginal SCA conditions Wednesday night. Surface high pressure is in place across the region this afternoon with NNW winds generally 5-10 kt. Waves are 1-2 ft in the Ches Bay with seas offshore ranging from 3-4 ft N and 4-6 ft S. Seas are forecast to slowly subside into this evening. Current SCA headlines for the southern coastal waters are set to expire at 7PM but may need a brief extension south of the VA/NC border depending on how quickly seas decline this evening. Otherwise, expecting rather benign boating conditions tonight through Wednesday. Winds become SSW tonight as high pressure moves offshore. A cold front crosses the waters on Wednesday with low level flow becoming NW behind the boundary. At this time, it appears that cold advection will lag the surface front by a few hours with winds not expected to increase appreciably until Wednesday evening into early Thursday. SCA conditions are possible overnight (mainly in the Ches Bay and coastal waters) into Thursday afternoon. The latest guidance continues to show the potential for a stronger system to impact the region this weekend but considerable spread remains with respect to when/where the low forms and subsequently tracks. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1259447 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 AM 10.Feb.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1159 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1151 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 - Patchy to areas of fog this morning with sea fog possible during the latter part of the week. - Weak cold front Wednesday morning and stronger cold front Saturday. - Low chance of showers Wednesday across the Victoria Crossroads, then a low to medium chance Friday night into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1151 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 The previous forecast is continuing to remain on track for the most part. A disturbance progressing from the Pacific is expected to kick off a weak frontal boundary into the region around mid-week. Due to drier conditions aloft and influence from a ridge over the Gulf, the front appears to stall and wash out (per guidance) as it reaches our area. Some showers will be possible especially over the Victoria Crossroads as moisture is expected to converge along the boundary. Limited energy and lift however will only allow for a low (~20-25%) chance for showers over that region with slightly higher chances over the waters Wednesday. Another disturbance will progress from the Pacific as we head into this weekend. Guidance is depicting this disturbance kicking off a stronger frontal boundary sweeping through South Texas. This will lead to a higher chance (30-65%) for showers and thunderstorms in the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. We will see lows cool slightly to the 40s and 50s in the wake of the front, though onshore flow returns quickly heading into next week allowing for temperatures to return to above normal. In terms of fog possibilities, we could see visibilities drop to less than 1SM this morning. Guidance is up to a 40-65% chance for fog less than 1SM for portions of the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. This may necessitate a dense fog advisory though we will monitor overnight as fog develops. It`s likely though that at the very least we will see patchy to dense fog across the region overnight. In terms of sea fog, we will likely not see development tonight into Tuesday morning due to water temps in the low 60s and dewpoints around 60-65 degrees. Potential will increase as we progress into the latter part of the week as dewpoints surge into the upper 60s ahead of the front. Will continue to monitor this possibility over the next few forecasts. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 Winds have remained elevated this evening aiding in maintaining VFR conditions across area sites. Foggy conditions are forecast to return to ALI/VCT terminals around daybreak Tuesday, leading to LIFR conditions. Sites will return to VFR around mid morning, and remain at these levels through the end of the cycle. Winds will be around 5-10 knots through the night, before strengthening and becoming breezy across the eastern sites Tuesday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1151 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 A south to southeast gentle to moderate breeze (BF 3-4) can be expected through Friday with a brief period of fresh (BF 5) winds across the offshore waters through the day today. Advisory conditions are possible Friday night ahead of a cold front. Patchy light sea fog will be possible through this morning. The threat for dense marine fog will increase late tonight and will continue through the overnight hours through Friday night. This is mainly for the bays and nearshore waters from Port Aransas northward. There is a low (15-25%) chance of showers today through Wednesday. A low to medium chance of showers can be expected Friday night and Saturday ahead of our next cold front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1151 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 Minimum relative humidity values (RH) will remain elevated with 30% or higher across the west to 45% and higher across the east through the week. As we head into this weekend, elevated to potentially critical fire weather could return as RH values are forecast to drop well below 30% with moderate to strong winds and moderate to high Energy Release Component values. However, with this cold front still being 6 days out, much can change from now to then. Until then, elevated fire weather conditions are not expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 78 61 80 61 / 0 10 10 0 Victoria 77 59 79 56 / 0 20 20 0 Laredo 82 61 84 63 / 0 10 10 0 Alice 82 59 82 59 / 0 10 10 0 Rockport 75 61 76 60 / 0 10 20 0 Cotulla 79 59 81 59 / 10 10 10 0 Kingsville 81 60 82 59 / 0 10 10 0 Navy Corpus 73 63 74 62 / 0 10 20 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1259446 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:54 AM 10.Feb.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1237 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1236 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 - Calm and comfortable weather early this week. - High rip current risk continues for Broward and Palm Beaches. - Some patchy fog could develops in areas of the interior near Lake Okeechobee early this morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 109 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026 No major changes to the near term forecast. Did add in patchy fog over interior locations tonight. Also lowered dewpoints slightly this afternoon especially over inland SW FL. Otherwise, fairly pleasant weather across South FL the next several days with temperatures very close to average. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 209 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026 Calm weather will continue for all of South Florida early this week as surface high pressure and an upper level ridge remain fully in control over the area. Easterly flow will occur from the western Atlantic, potentially resulting in some harmless clouds streaming over the east coast metro, but nothing more than that. High temperatures today will reach the mid to upper 70s across the region with highs tomorrow reaching the upper 70s to low 80s for most areas. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 209 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026 Heading into late this week, a pattern shift looks to take place but it still does not appear to be overly impactful. Looking at latest analysis of ensemble data, a strong shortwave trough is projected to advect eastward which will weaken the ridge and eventually force the ridge out of the area. However, even with this trough providing forcing for ascent, moisture advection looks to be lacking and the trough itself will lose some of its power as it breaks down the ridge in its approach to South Florida. Therefore, rain chances are still very low to non-existent for this time frame. As we approach next weekend, a much deeper synoptic scale trough is anticipated to develop and strengthen in the lee of the Rockies before it sweeps into the Eastern Seaboard. This will provide more of a large scale forcing mechanism that may be enough to force some light rain shower activity. Even with this stronger trough, guidance is not keen on deep moisture advection occurring, so shower activity would be expected to be more of the benign variety at this time. Daily high temperatures will stabilize after mid-week to being in the upper 70s to low 80s across the region each day. Similarly, overnight lows each night will stabilize to being in the 50s across SW Florida and low 60s for the east coast metro. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 Generally VFR conditions forecast through the period. Winds will remain light and variable til noontime, when a light southeasterly flow will develop, except at KAPF where the Gulf breeze will push in. Some patchy fog could develop across the interior early this morning, but chances of impacts to the terminals remain very low. && .MARINE... Issued at 209 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026 Improved conditions today and through the early week period across the Atlantic waters as seas begin to fall. Most of the Atlantic will see seas of 3-5 feet with isolated areas seeing seas up to 6 feet. Winds will be lighter at a light to gentle flow. Gulf seas remain at 1-2 feet or less early this week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 209 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026 A high risk for rip currents continues for the Broward and Palm beaches today and tomorrow along with a moderate risk for the Miami beaches. This risk could remain elevated for several days as an ongoing northeasterly swell occurs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 75 61 77 59 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 77 55 79 54 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 77 59 78 58 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 76 59 77 58 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 74 60 76 58 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 75 60 77 59 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 77 58 79 58 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 76 58 77 57 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 76 58 77 58 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 76 55 75 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1259445 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:54 AM 10.Feb.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1246 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The aviation section has been updated for the 06z TAF issuance. Minor changes made to the discussion for Key Message 1. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Rain chances return Wednesday and again late week into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain chances return Wednesday and again late week into the weekend. Expect upper level shortwave over the Tennessee River Valley to quickly progress eastward toward the Atlantic this evening, dragging an attendant sfc cold front across the region by Wednesday. As noted in days past, this boundary may cause a few isolated to scattered showers to develop Wednesday afternoon and evening. That being said, overall forcing and moisture are quite meager, suggesting that rainfall totals will remain on the lighter side. Latest ensemble guidance only supports around a 30-40% chance of seeing greater than a tenth of rain. Rather, the more likely scenario will entail most of the area only seeing a few hundredths at best. Our attention then turns toward the weekend, as a more pronounced and impactful system takes aim at our area. Deep upper level trough across the Four Corner region ejects eastward across the central Plains Saturday night into Sunday, before sliding across the southeast CONUS by Monday. While prefrontal showers could begin as early as Saturday, expect the better chances (80%+) to arrive Sunday afternoon as WAA blossoms across the region ahead of the aforementioned low. Despite there still being variability in the overall strength and track of the low, latest ensemble guidance showcases a 70-80% chance of seeing greater than 0.5 inch of rain, with chances dropping to 40-60% for greater than an inch. Certainly something to keep an eye on in the coming days, especially with convection possible, which could result in isolated pockets of higher accumulations. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 06z Wednesday. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR prevails through early Friday. Flight restrictions are possible with a passing low pressure system this weekend. && .MARINE... Through tonight: The local waters will increasingly become situated between high pressure over the southwest Atlantic and a cold front that stretches from the Great Lakes region to the Southern Plains. This setup will produce southwest flow that will gradually strengthen through the day, with 10-15 knots of flow everywhere and up to 15-20 knots in the Charleston County waters. Overnight, the gradient will tighten and winds will strengthen. Speeds will be 15- 20 knots everywhere, with potential for 25 knot gusts in the Charleston County waters and the outer GA waters. There continues to be a low probability (20-30%) of seeing a period of 25 knot gusts in the outer reaches of the Charleston County waters and the outer GA waters. At this time, Small Craft Advisories do not look likely. Wednesday through Saturday: Southwest winds will remain elevated into the 15-20 knot range on Wednesday ahead of the approaching front. There is still a low probability (20-30%) of seeing 25 knot gusts in the outer reaches of the Charleston County waters and the outer GA waters through Wednesday morning. Winds will turn west and then northwest as the front pushes through the waters Wednesday evening and into early Thursday morning. A brief northeast surge will occur Thursday morning and then conditions should remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds Friday through Saturday. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1259444 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:51 AM 10.Feb.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1140 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1137 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 - Dense fog is expected tonight, reducing visibility to below 1/4 of a mile over land areas and below 1 mile over marine zones. Use extra time and caution when traveling tonight and Tuesday morning. - Much above normal temperatures will occur Monday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1230 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 Upper ridging will build eastward across the area tonight, with weak southerly surface flow. Skies will become mostly clear tonight, and as winds subside after sunset, patchy fog is expected to develop. By midnight, dewpoint depressions will be near 0 areawide, with these conditions lingering through the predawn areas. Given the widespread nature of the fog, and the likelihood of visibility dropping below 1/4 of a mile, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the entire area. Fog looks to settle in prior to midnight and will dissipate by mid morning on Tuesday. With reduced visibility during the morning commute, motorists should give themselves a little extra time in the morning. The ridge will persist through Tuesday, keeping mostly clear and dry conditions. A weak shortwave will traverse the Desert Southwest and move through the area on Wednesday. Moisture return will be a bit limited; so we`re not looking at much in the way of rain. Isolated to scattered showers are possible, but amounts will be light. Ridging will then build again on Thursday, with surface high pressure over the Great Lakes keeping a northerly low level flow. The ridge will dampen through the day, with zonal flow expected by Friday. Temps through the week will be above normal, with overnight lows dropping into the 50s and afternoon highs warming into the 60s to lower 70s. The zonal flow will persist through Saturday, as a trough ejects from the Desert Southwest and moves through the Southern Plains. This will bring a cold front through the forecast area on Sunday, with rain chances increasing ahead of it. While it`ll be something to monitor over the coming days, it`s still too early to begin looking at potential impacts beyond the increased rain chances. So, really, no big impacts are expected through the 7 day period, with the exception of the dense fog tonight. /73 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 Spotty dense fog with VLIFR conditions is expected to become widespread across the area overnight, then improve to VFR by/during mid morning. Calm or light southerly winds become southerly/southwesterly around 10 knots on Tuesday. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 A predominately southwesterly flow will persist through midweek, as a surface ridge sets up across the eastern Gulf. Dense fog is also expected over bays, sounds, and nearshore waters tonight through Tuesday morning. Winds should shift briefly to a light offshore flow late Wednesday night through noon Thursday as a weak front passes through the area, followed by a return to a light onshore flow Thursday afternoon through Friday. /73 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 51 74 56 76 / 0 0 0 20 Pensacola 54 70 57 74 / 0 0 10 10 Destin 55 69 59 71 / 0 0 10 20 Evergreen 48 75 55 76 / 0 0 10 20 Waynesboro 51 75 56 76 / 0 0 10 20 Camden 50 73 57 74 / 0 0 20 20 Crestview 49 75 54 77 / 0 0 0 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for ALZ051>060-261>266. FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for FLZ201>206. MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ630>636-650-655. && $$ |
| #1259443 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 AM 10.Feb.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1144 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1124 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 - A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 9 AM CST Tuesday across south Mississippi and southeast Louisiana and 2 PM CST for marine areas. The potential for dense fog will continue the next several nights/mornings. - Dry weather is expected until Wednesday, when a quick moving shortwave may bring some light rain chances. - Severe weather possible Saturday evening into Sunday morning. - Above normal temperatures are expected through the period. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 Upper ridging over the western Gulf this evening, with a southern stream closed low over Baja California. Satellite imagery showing quite a bit of moisture getting pumped up and over the crest of the ridge. At the surface, high pressure covered most of the Gulf, with a frontal boundary well to the north of Interstate 40. Skies were mostly clear this evening with temperatures mainly mid 50s to lower 60s, although there has been some patchy fog develop over the last hour or two. Main concern for the short term continues to be the potential for fog development the next few nights. The difference between last night and tonight is that we don`t have much in the way of high clouds tonight. That should make fog development easier tonight, but high clouds could be a limiting factor again tomorrow night. We`ve already got a Dense Fog Advisory in place for tonight and see zero reason to mess with it. The Baja upper low will open into a wave Tuesday and move across the area late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. There may be a few showers accompany the wave on Wednesday, but most areas are expected to remain dry. May have to deal with fog again behind the system Wednesday night, but only if we can get rid of cloud cover, which is in question. Temperatures are expected to continue to run roughly 10F above normal. The NBM deterministic highs the next couple days look to be near or a shade below the 50th percentile in the latest batch over the next 36-48 hours. The next couple of nights shouldn`t be any cooler than the current overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday night) Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 Brief ridging will be across the area Thursday and Friday before a strong southern stream trough moves across the lower Mississippi River Valley Saturday night and Sunday. That system appears to have quite a bit more going for it than the one that crosses the area Wednesday. Moisture and shear are definitely sufficient for strong thunderstorm development, and the amount of instability in the forecast soundings currently appears sufficient as well. There`s a significant amount of outdoor events going on next weekend, and timing of convection will be critical to whether those events are able to take place without interruption. Current medium range depictions of the weather indicate that daytime activities probably won`t be significantly impacted, but Saturday evening ones could be. We`re still 5 days out, so it is likely still too soon to limit the thunderstorm threat to a 3-6 hour window. It should also be noted that at least some model solutions for Saturday and Saturday night show enough of a pressure gradient that would produce rather breezy conditions across much of the area. The good news is that the Saturday night system is really the only one of significant concern through Fat Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to continue well above normal into early next week, with longer range modeling indicating that trend continuing through the 8 to 14 day period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 All terminals were VFR up until about 15 minutes before forecast issuance, when fog started developing at KASD, with the visibility being rather variable, but primarily LIFR. Starting to see hints at other terminals and beyond the top of the hour, do expect ceilings and visibilities to deteriorate at other terminals. Likely to IFR by about 10z at most terminals, and periods of LIFR from that point through about 14z before beginning to improve. Should be back to VFR by midday. Another round of low ceilings/visibilities is likely near and beyond 06z Wednesday if high clouds don`t interfere. && .MARINE... Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 Onshore flow will likely be in place all week with high pressure centered generally east of the region. The threat of fog development will be relatively high the next couple days and again this upcoming weekend. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through early afternoon Tuesday, and day shift in the morning will reassess the need for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. There`s already been some fog over cooler waters in the last hour or so, and no adjustments to the advisory appear necessary. Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible Saturday into Sunday as an area of low pressure tracks from west to east across the Gulf Coast states, especially if some of the stronger members of ensembles verify. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ530-532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557. MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ532-534-536-538- 550-552-555-557. && $$ |
| #1259442 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:33 AM 10.Feb.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1231 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 150 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026 - A high risk of rip currents persists at area beaches through early this week, along with lingering poor boating conditions in the Gulf Stream and near inlets. - Drought conditions and lower humidity values through midweek combine to produce fire sensitive conditions. - Near to slightly above normal temperatures return this week with any notable rain chances likely holding off towards next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 150 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026 Tonight-Tuesday...High pressure across the Mid-Atlantic will slide southeast and offshore over the West Atlantic, with ridge axis extending westward across Florida. This will continue overall light winds, dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. Lows tonight will still be below normal in the 40s, but highs on Tuesday will be near to slightly above normal in the mid to upper 70s for many locations. While models aren`t as aggressive with fog development tonight as they were for this morning, still can`t rule out patchy fog development across much of the area overnight tonight into early Tuesday morning. Localized visibilities of a mile or less will be possible. At the beaches, a high risk of life-threatening rip currents will continue through midweek due to an incoming long-period swell. Do not let the warmer conditions catch you off guard. Entering the water is discouraged! Wednesday-Friday...A weak front moving into the Southeast U.S. on Wednesday will begin to move into Florida before stalling near or just northeast of the area into Thursday. This boundary may then linger just offshore or fade into late week, keeping any potential for showers mostly over the coastal waters. However, a developing weak onshore flow into late week may be able to transport a few showers onshore along the coast. Otherwise, conditions are forecast to remain mostly dry. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal, with highs mostly in the 70s and morning lows in the 50s. May see max temps reach the low 80s across the interior, mainly south of Orlando on Thursday and Friday. Saturday-Monday...(Modified Previous Discussion) A fairly stout shortwave trough will drive a cold front through the area either late Sunday or into Sunday night. As moisture surges ahead of the approaching front, models try to spit out some light precip chances (20-30pct) on Sat night, then higher chances (40-60pct) ahead of the front into Sun. Timing differences between models in the frontal passage and overall available instability keep confidence in any storm potential low for the time being. Temperatures continue generally above climo this weekend ahead of the front, with temperatures then forecast to only fall back to more normal values early next week behind this boundary. && .MARINE... Issued at 150 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026 Tonight-Tuesday...High pressure builds southeast and offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast, settling just east of the area across the West Atlantic. Winds will remain generally light (less than 10 knots) become S/SW into tonight and W/SW Tuesday morning, with winds then turning onshore near the coast with the developing east coast sea breeze in the afternoon. Long period swells, with periods ~12-14sec diminish to 3-5 feet late this afternoon, but seas up to 6 feet will build back into the Gulf Stream waters, mainly south of the Cape into Tuesday, continuing to produce poor boating conditions. However, seas then diminish once again to 5 feet or less Tuesday night. The long period swells will also make for poor to hazardous boating conditions near inlets during the outgoing tide. Wednesday-Saturday...Front moves into the Southeast U.S. and eventually into the waters on Thursday. This boundary will then either stall across the waters or fade through late week and into early this weekend, maintaining the potential for isolated to scattered showers over the waters. Offshore winds Wednesday will eventually become onshore into late week and Saturday. Wind speeds are forecast to remain below 15 knots through much of the forecast period, but are forecast to increase briefly to 15-20 knots offshore Wednesday night. Seas 3-5 feet Wednesday fall to 2-4 feet Thursday through Saturday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1230 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 Light and variable winds persist at all terminals this morning, forecast to become more southwesterly after 15Z. Dry conditions are anticipated today, and VFR conditions will prevail through the period. There is a low chance for some patchy fog development this morning, but there is low confidence in where and when exactly it will develop, so will continue to monitor and amend as needed. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 150 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026 High pressure will influence the weather across east central FL through midweek and will keep winds relatively light, generally around 5-10 mph. A weak front will then move into Florida on Thursday, eventually stalling near to northeast of the area. Offshore winds will become onshore along the coast during the afternoon Tuesday, and then are forecast to remain offshore through the day Wednesday as offshore flow strengthens slightly. The airmass remains mostly dry, with near to below critical Min RH values forecast, especially on Tuesday. Min RH values are forecast to fall as low as 25-35% across the interior and along the coast of Volusia and northern Brevard County on Tuesday afternoon. On Wednesday lowest RH values around 35% are forecast inland and south of Orlando. Smoke dispersion will be Fair to Generally Good on Tuesday, and Very Good to Excellent for much of the area into Wednesday. Patchy fog, producing localized visibilities of a mile or less will be possible late tonight through early Tuesday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 50 75 54 / 0 0 0 10 MCO 79 54 77 56 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 76 51 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 77 51 76 52 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 78 51 76 55 / 0 0 0 10 SFB 79 51 77 56 / 0 0 0 10 ORL 79 54 77 57 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 77 50 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1259441 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:18 AM 10.Feb.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1117 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1054 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 * Unseasonably warm, dry, and at times windy conditions will prevail through early next week. * There is a low chance (20-30%) for rain over the Gulf Waters Wednesday and then again Friday night into Saturday. * Increased fire weather concerns through early next week; Saturday will be the day at greatest risk for fire weather concerns. * Breezy to windy conditions will result in adverse marine conditions developing on Tuesday and then again Friday night through Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1054 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 Unseasonably warm, dry, and at times windy conditions will be the theme through the forecast period or through early next week. Due to the combination of antecedently dry soils, freeze cured fuels, windy conditions, and lowering relative humidity (RH) values, fire weather concerns will also be on the increase over the weekend, specifically on Saturday, and possibly again during the early parts of next week (see FIRE WEATHER SECTION for more details). Global forecast models and ensembles continue to depict a zonal (westerly) to semi-zonal (southwesterly) flow regime in place along with a 582-588 mb ridging being the dominant weather fixture over the southern Plains through early next week. There will be a couple of weak upper level troughs/perturbations stemming from a parent trough over/nearby the Beaufort Sea that will track over the southern Plains this week into next weekend. The first one will travel from northern Mexico through the state of Texas through Wednesday (in decaying fashion). A second, stronger impulse is progged to track over the region Friday through Saturday. Given that the main storm track, better jet stream dynamics, and instability will be just to our north-northwest (i.e. over the Southern Rockies into central/northern Texas), impulses associated with the aforementioned weak trough in the form of showers and thunderstorms will pass to our north/northwest effectively keeping Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley rain- free through the forecast period. That said, there is a low chance (20-30%) for showers over the Gulf Waters On Wednesday and then again Friday night into Saturday. As mentioned earlier, there will be periods of breezy to windy conditions. The first opportunity will Tuesday. An area of low pressure just to our west over the Sierra Madre Oriental and high pressure to our east over the Gulf Waters will enhance a sfc pressure gradient over the region ultimately resulting in windy conditions developing on Tuesday. The combination of an enhanced sfc pressure gradient, increasing mixing heights w/ low level jet (LLJ) winds between 20-30 kts or so, and locally enhanced geographical features will result in southerly winds 20-30 mph developing with gusts up to 40 mph on Tuesday. Friday and Saturday will feature additional opportunities for windy conditions. Friday into Saturday, another low pressure system over the Sierra Madre along with a strengthening LLJ, ahead of an approaching cold front and mid-upper level trough, will help to enhance the pressure gradient over the region resulting in another breezy to windy period. On Friday and Saturday, southerly winds 15-30 mph are expected to develop with gusts as high as 40 mph. There`s still some uncertainty with the precise timing of the cold fropa on Saturday. A wind shift is possible on Saturday out of the northwest following the potential cold fropa. Breezy conditions are also possible on Monday and/or Tuesday of next week. The breezy to windy conditions will result in adverse marine conditions developing on Tuesday and then again Friday night through Sunday (see MARINE SECTION for more details). An emerging negative Pacific North American (-PNA)/positive Arctic Oscillation (+AO) pattern with troughing (cooler/stormier) over the western U.S. vs. ridging over the central U.S. is expected to take shape through early next week. A 582-588 dam ridge overhead coupled with ample warm air advection (WAA) amid breezy southerly winds will support unseasonably warm temperatures (late March to late April- like) through the forecast period. High temperatures will mainly be in the 80s across Deep South Texas with some lower 90s along and west of IH-69C through the period. Low temperatures will mainly be in the 50s and 60s across the region through the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1054 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 Through 06z Wednesday.....By and large, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 06z TAF cycle. There could be a few MVFR clouds around from time to time, particularly through tonight. Southerly winds will be between 5-12 kts through tonight. Windy conditions develop on Tuesday with southerly winds 15-25 kts gusting as high as 30 kts or so. && .MARINE... Issued at 1054 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 Adverse (SCEC) marine conditions are expected on Tuesday and then again Friday night through Sunday in response to breezy to windy conditions. Outside of that, marine conditions will generally be favorable with low to moderate winds and seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1054 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 Fire weather concerns are expected to be on the increase this week through early next week given the combination of persistent dryness, lower relative humidity (RH) levels, at times breezy to windy conditions, and freeze cured grasses/brush. The latest report from the U.S. Drought Monitor indicated long term dryness over much of Deep South Texas with D3 (Extreme Drought) over 45% of Deep South Texas including most of the Northern Ranchlands into the Upper Rio Grande Valley, D2 (Severe Drought) conditions over 19% of Deep South Texas including most of the remainder of the northern Ranchlands and upper RGV, D1 (Moderate Drought) over 23% of the region including most of the coast, mid to lower RGV, and northwestern Zapata County, and D0 (Abnormally Dry) conditions over 9% of the region including portions of the mid to lower RGV. Saturday, following the potential passage of a cold front, looks to be the day at greatest risk for fire dangers. With RH values expected to fall to between 15-40% across much of Deep South Texas on Saturday coupled with breezy 20ft winds 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph ahead and behind the front, a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) may be needed on Saturday for an Elevated Fire Weather Risk. Will need to monitor the threat for fire weather through early next week with additional chances for lower RH values on top of breezy conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 63 81 64 82 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 59 84 60 83 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 63 87 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 59 87 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 64 74 65 74 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 61 79 62 79 / 0 0 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
