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#1242572 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:57 AM 23.Aug.2025) TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Southwestern Atlantic (AL90): Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure has formed about 500 miles south-southeast of Bermuda, and the associated showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization. A tropical depression is expected to form later today or tonight, with further intensification to a tropical storm likely on Sunday while the low moves northward over the southwestern Atlantic. An Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this afternoon. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system as watches could be still required later today. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent. East of the Windward Islands (AL99): Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located about 850 miles east of the Windward Islands. Some development of this system could occur during the next few days while the system moves quickly westward at about 20 mph. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible across portions of the Windward Islands as the system moves through on Sunday and Monday. By the middle of next week, conditions over the central Caribbean are expected to be unfavorable for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Blake |
#1242571 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:57 AM 23.Aug.2025) TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Southwestern Atlantic (AL90): Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure has formed about 500 miles south-southeast of Bermuda, and the associated showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization. A tropical depression is expected to form later today or tonight, with further intensification to a tropical storm likely on Sunday while the low moves northward over the southwestern Atlantic. An Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this afternoon. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system as watches could be still required later today. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent. East of the Windward Islands (AL99): Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located about 850 miles east of the Windward Islands. Some development of this system could occur during the next few days while the system moves quickly westward at about 20 mph. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible across portions of the Windward Islands as the system moves through on Sunday and Monday. By the middle of next week, conditions over the central Caribbean are expected to be unfavorable for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Blake |
#1242535 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:12 AM 23.Aug.2025) TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Southwestern Atlantic (AL90): Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in association with a trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles north of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical storm is expected to form this weekend while it moves north-northwestward and then northward over the southwestern Atlantic. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system as watches or warnings could be required later today. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located more than one thousand miles east of the Windward Islands have become less organized over the past 24 hours, and the system is currently being affected by strong wind shear. No development is expected through tonight while the system traverses the area of strong wind shear. The wave could reach a slightly more favorable environment Sunday and Monday as it approaches the Windward Islands, and some slow development is possible during that time. By the middle of next week, conditions over the Caribbean are expected to be unfavorable for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Hagen |
#1242533 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:12 AM 23.Aug.2025) TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Southwestern Atlantic (AL90): Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in association with a trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles north of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical storm is expected to form this weekend while it moves north-northwestward and then northward over the southwestern Atlantic. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system as watches or warnings could be required later today. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located more than one thousand miles east of the Windward Islands have become less organized over the past 24 hours, and the system is currently being affected by strong wind shear. No development is expected through tonight while the system traverses the area of strong wind shear. The wave could reach a slightly more favorable environment Sunday and Monday as it approaches the Windward Islands, and some slow development is possible during that time. By the middle of next week, conditions over the Caribbean are expected to be unfavorable for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Hagen |