Maria, Lee and What May Be
Posted: 01:22 PM 24 September 2017 | | Add Comment
There will never be another hurricane named Maria, and while a beautiful name and a gorgeous cyclone, it's safe to say that 2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone 15L "Maria" will not be missed.
Maria is not done yet, and interests along the east coast need to pay very close attention over the next few days, as even if Maria does not come ashore along or near the Outer Banks (increasingly possible - in fact with many of the model ensembles showing this) her effects are and will still be felt in the form of dangerous rip currents, high swells and blustery wind and rain. Stay tuned, and ready to prepare to take more action as her Cone of Uncertainty has continued to include the OBX, and may still shift west.
Elsewhere, Lee, having gone from TD to Tropical Storm, to just a remnant, is now a very powerful, very compact hurricane, conservatively estimated to have 90 MPH maximum sustained winds at the time of this post, making Lee the 8th Hurricane of this hyperactive 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. This one will probably stay well at out sea, but may have some impact on Maria's steering currents, as it is plenty strong to impact the other features in that region, despite the small size. In fact, it would not be shocking to see Lee become one of the Majors. Without recon going all the way out there to sample him, unless he should start to threaten land of course, we would have to rely mostly on satellite estimates to make this determination. We have the technology...
Looking ahead to next week, solid models are already honing in on increasing potential for new tropical cyclone formations. The first place to find out if we have identified a specific feature or Invest worth tracking will be in the 2017 Forecast Lounge , and we hope you will also join us there.
Maria Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Maria (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Maria (Animated!)
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Lee Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Lee (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Lee (Animated!)
Floater Satellite Images:
Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Hurricane Matthew Weather Summary for East Central Florida
Posted: 05:32 PM 16 October 2016
A low pressure reading of 28.97" was recorded at Melbourne NWS at 7AM. At 7:30AM I noted a pressure reading of 28.98" at my home in northwest Melbourne. The lowest pressure was located in the southern section of the eye of the hurricane and the central pressure from the Hurricane Hunters was recorded at 938MB (27.90") at 1AM. At 4AM the aircraft reported a circular eye with a diameter of 32NM and a central pressure of 942MB with flight level wind at 118 knots which translates to a 100 knot surface wind (115mph). At 7:17AM the aircraft sent a position fix for the eye at 28.6N 80.2W with a pressure of 942MB and eyewall sustained surface winds of 110 knots. The eye of Matthew had contracted to a circular 20NM diameter as the hurricane passed to the east of the area. Although the radius of the eye had contracted from 17NM to 10NM, the radius of sustained hurricane force winds remained at 40 miles to the west of the center. The central pressure increased and leveled off at 947MB during the day on Friday as Matthew moved NNW. If the eye of Matthew had moved along the shoreline, i.e., if it had been 35-40 miles further to the west, damage would have certainly been greater but no realistic conclusion can be made with regard to the extent of the destruction because an on-shore system would have slowly weakened.
Matthew goes into the record books as a Category I Hurricane in a small section of the Brevard County coast. In some reports from the NHC the flight level Recon wind speeds were not reduced correctly and resulted in stated maximum eyewall surface wind speeds that were about 10mph too high - and I cannot find a valid meteorological reason for doing this. Hurricane Erin in 1995 and Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne in 2004 were all storms with a greater impact on Brevard County. While the early call by the Brevard Emergency Management Operations Center to evacuate residents from the Barrier Islands was prudent, the overstated intensity and inland impacts were mis-leading and confusing to some of our residents. The National Hurricane Center and The Weather Channel both over-hyped the overall magnitude of the storm - which will not help folks to make the correct decision when the next hurricane visits our area. Matthew was not the catastrophic Category IV storm of the century that was touted by some for our area. All hurricanes are dangerous and deserve proper preparation and decision-making. It is worth noting that the area from Melbourne Beach to Titusville has never recorded a Cat III or greater hurricane. Someday that record of 165 years will probably be broken, but Matthew was not that storm. Hurricane David, September 3-4, 1979, was the last Category II Hurricane to hit this area with eye passage along the coast from West Palm Beach to New Smyrna Beach.
Selected Weather Reports:
Vero Beach - wind W 49G74mph Rainfall 3.16"
Sebastian - wind N 30G59mph
5N Barefoot Bay - wind N G74mph
4NNW Grant - wind NW 51G68mph
Malabar - wind N 60G72mph
Melbourne Beach - wind N 23G63mph Lowest SLP: 28.85"
Melbourne (Dairy Road) - wind N 44G71mph
Melbourne - wind N 44G76mph Lowest SLP: 28.97"
NW Melbourne - wind NNW 42G65 Lowest SLP: 28.98 Storm Total Rainfall: 3.43"
Satellite Beach - wind N 69G87mph
2SSE Patrick AFB - wind N 69G88mph
South Patrick Shores - wind N 73G90mph Lowest SLP: 28.86"
Cocoa Beach Park - wind N 60G77mph
Merritt Island (Sunset Lakes) - wind NW 36G55mph Lowest SLP: 28.90"
Merritt Island (Banana River) - wind NNW 63G81mph
3WNW Cape Canaveral - wind gust N 86mph
4NE Cape Canaveral - wind gust NNW 81mph Coastal Flooding
5NE Port Canaveral - wind gust N 100mph
KSC Tower 22 - wind gust NW 107mph (non-standard anemometer height)
KSC Tower 3 - NNW 77G107mph (non-standard anemometer height)
Titusville (Parrish Park) - wind N 58G75mph
5NNE New Smyrna Beach - wind gust N 80mph
Daytona Beach (Speedway) - wind gust NNW 91mph
5NE Lake Mary - 24 hour rainfall 7.04"
Orlando Intl Airport - wind W 30G61mph Lowest SLP: 29.30"
From the Melbourne NWS:
G. STORM IMPACTS BY COUNTY...
COUNTY DEATHS INJURIES EVACUATIONS
BREVARD 0 1 UNKNOWN
ONE DIRECT INJURY. A MALE IN HIS 40S WAS INJURED IN PORT CANAVERAL
WHEN A SIGN FELL AND STRUCK HIM DURING THE STORM. DAMAGE TO
BUSINESSES AND HOMES MAINLY AS A RESULT OF FALLEN TREES. SEVERAL
HOMES WITH WATER INTRUSION DUE TO DAMAGED ROOFS. TWO HOMES LOST TO
FIRE AS OFFICIALS SUSPENDED EMERGENCY SERVICES DURING THE HEIGHT OF
THE STORM. SPORADIC COUNTYWIDE DAMAGE TO FENCES...AWNINGS...AND
SCREEN ROOMS. AN INITIAL COASTAL SURVEY INDICATES MODERATE TO MAJOR
BEACH EROSION WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO BERMS AND DUNES.
PRELIMINARY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT INDICATES AN ECONOMIC LOSS OF $25
MILLION DUE TO COASTAL EROSION, AND $4 MILLION DUE TO VEGETATIVE
LOSSES. PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT HAS NOT BEEN COMPLETED. ABOUT
300,000 CUSTOMERS WERE WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
INDIAN RIVER 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. ROUGH SURF AND MAJOR BEACH EROSION.
PRELIMINARY BEACH DAMAGE ASSESSMENT DETAILS MAJOR DUNE EROSION AND
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PEDESTRIAN CROSSWALKS WITHIN COUNTY OWNED
BEACH PARKS WITH AN ESTIMATED ECONOMIC LOSS OF $13 MILLION. SEVERAL
HOMES DAMAGED MAINLY BY FALLEN TREES.
LAKE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR URBAN...ROADWAY...AND LOWLAND FLOODING.
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER NEAR ASTOR PEAKED JUST BELOW MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE. MINOR DAMAGE TO FOUR HOMES WITH MAJOR DAMAGE TO THREE CAUSED
MAINLY BY FALLING BRANCHES AND TREES. EARLY PROPERTY DAMAGE
ASSESSMENT OF APPROXIMATELY $389 THOUSAND.
MARTIN 0 1 UNKNOWN
ONE INDIRECT INJURY. A 47-YEAR-OLD MALE WAS ELECTROCUTED WHEN HIS
TOOLS HIT A LIVE POWER LINE WHILE TRIMMING TREES IN STUART AFTER
THE STORM ON MONDAY OCTOBER 10 AROUND 8:15 AM. ROUGH SURF AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION. MINOR DAMAGE TO HOMES MAINLY AS A RESULT OF FALLEN
TREES. ISOLATED DAMAGE TO FENCES...AWNINGS...AND SCREEN ROOMS.
PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT NOT YET AVAILABLE.
OKEECHOBEE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO ONE HOME. UP TO 2300
CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER AT HEIGHT OF STORM.
ORANGE 1 0 UNKNOWN
ONE DEATH INDIRECTLY RELATED TO HURRICANE MATTHEW. A 70-YEAR-OLD
WOMAN DIED AFTER HER MEDICAL DEVICE FAILED DURING A POWER OUTAGE.
PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT NOT YET AVAILABLE FROM OFFICIALS.
OSCEOLA 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. NO REPORTS OF STRUCTURAL DAMAGE OR FLOODING.
MINOR DAMAGE MAINLY TO TREES AND VEGETATION. UP TO 5900 CUSTOMERS
WERE WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
SEMINOLE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR URBAN...ROADWAY...LOWLAND AND RIVER
FLOODING. DAMAGE TO BUSINESSES AND RESIDENCES MAINLY BY FALLING
BRANCHES AND TREES. INITIAL PROPERTY DAMAGE ESTIMATED $15 MILLION.
UP TO 70,000 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
ST. LUCIE 2 2 UNKNOWN
TWO INDIRECT DEATHS AND TWO INDIRECT INJURIES. A 58-YEAR-OLD INDIAN
RIVER ESTATES WOMAN DIED OF A HEART ATTACK AND A PORT ST. LUCIE MAN
IN HIS 80S DIED AFTER SUFFERING BREATHING PROBLEMS AND SYMPTOMS OF A
STROKE AS FIRE OFFICIALS SUSPENDED EMERGENCY SERVICES DURING THE
HURRICANE. A 90-YEAR-OLD MALE AND FEMALE WERE FOUND UNCONSCIOUS IN
THEIR PORT ST. LUCIE HOME AFTER OFFICIALS DISCOVERED THEY WERE
RUNNING A GAS GENERATOR IN THEIR GARAGE. ROUGH SURF AND MODERATE TO
MAJOR BEACH EROSION. DAMAGE CONFINED MAINLY TO TREES...POWER
LINES...AND SIGNAGE THROUGH THE COUNTY. PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT
NOT YET AVAIALBLE FROM OFFICIALS.
VOLUSIA 4 0 UNKNOWN
ONE DIRECT AND THREE INDIRECT FATALITIES. A 63-YEAR-OLD WOMAN DIED
WHEN A TREE FELL ON HER AS SHE WAS OUT FEEDING ANIMALS AT HER DELAND
HOME. A 89-YEAR-OLD MAN FROM DELEON SPRINGS WAS ELECTROCUTED BY A
DOWNED POWER LINE MONDAY MORNING AROUND 8:00 AM OCTOBER 10. A 47-
YEAR-OLD NORTHEAST OHIO MAN ASSISTING CLEANUP EFFORTS IN ORMOND
BEACH WAS KILLED WHEN PART OF A DOWNED TREE ROLLED ON TOP OF HIM AND
PINNED HIM UNDERNEATH. A 9-YEAR-OLD DAYTONA BEACH BOY WAS FOUND
UNCONSCIOUS IN HIS HOME AFTER OFFICIALS DISCOVERED A GENERATOR
RUNNING IN ANOTHER ROOM. THE BOY LATER DIED AT HALIFAX HEATLH
MEDICAL CENTER. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUSINESS THROUGHOUT
THE COUNTY WITH OVER 6400 PROPERTIES AFFECTED, 1100 WITH MINOR
DAMAGE, 300 WITH MAJOR DAMAGE, AND 40 STRUCTURES DESTROYED. INITIAL
PROPERTY DAMAGE ESTIMATE OF $490 MILLION. ROUGH SURF AND MAJOR BEACH
EROSION. BEACH EROSION DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.
Hurricane Matthew - Getting Too Close For Comfort
Posted: 01:42 PM 05 October 2016
Hurricane Matthew - It Could Get Interesting
Posted: 09:07 PM 03 October 2016
On Friday morning and early afternoon Matthew should move parallel to and about 50 miles offshore of the Florida east coast from Jupiter to Daytona Beach. Closest approach to east central Florida expected to be around 11Z (7AM) on Friday morning. Winds in east central Florida will be out of the Northeast on Thursday evening becoming more Northerly Friday morning peaking at 50mph gusting to 65mph on the barrier islands and 40mph gusting to 50mph inland near I-95. I expect that the National Hurricane Center will issue a Tropical Storm Watch (or Warning) for the eastern portion of the Florida peninsula late tonight or early Tuesday morning.
Rainfall totals in east Florida are expected to be in the 3 - 5" range with some localized flooding likely. Storm surge in the 3 to 5 foot range is possible on the barrier islands as the hurricane approaches and the surface winds increase out of the northeast. Boats should be secured for strong tropical storm force winds and high waves. Rip current threat will increase on Thursday and Friday. Loose objects, lawn chairs, etc., should be secured or stored on Tuesday and Wednesday. As the weather deteriorates, provide shelter for your pets.
Use Tuesday to check on your storm supplies and replenish as needed. Have an adequate supply of drinking water and batteries on hand - if the storm track adjusts more to the west you just might need these items. Monitor the progress of this hurricane closely - if a Category III hurricane rides up the coast and you are in its path, do you have an evacuation plan? Hopefully Matthew will stay far enough offshore and the impacts will be minimal but being prepared is always a smart choice.
Matthew & Models
Posted: 02:26 PM 01 October 2016
To repeat something that I've said before, the model is not the forecast - it is just a guide that is used to make the forecast. The models on this particular storm have not performed well. They missed the rapid intensification cycle that took place Friday evening - they missed the extended movement of the hurricane to the west southwest and even southwest at times - and they missed the cyclonic loop currently underway. These changes, whether subtle or sudden, are still difficult things to forecast and its important to remember that models are simply software programs that were developed by scientists. Just like weather forecasts, they are not perfect and precise and they were not intended to be - to base your forecast entirely on model output means that bad forecasts will occasionally be made.
Hermine Heads for Florida
Posted: 02:22 AM 01 September 2016
Sustained Tropical Storm winds are likely in Jacksonville and possible in St Pete/Tampa, Orlando and Daytona Beach. Wind gusts to tropical storm force in rain squalls (40 to 45mph) are possible along and north of a line from Ft Myers to Ft Pierce on Thursday. Scattered to numerous tropical downpours - a few with thunder - will produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches in east central Florida on Thursday and early Friday with much heavier amounts in west central and northeast Florida. Significant flooding is likely through Friday - especially in west central to northeast Florida. Hurricane force winds at landfall Thursday evening will create widespread power outages and flooded roadways in the Cross City to Jacksonville corridor. Isolated tornadoes are possible - mostly over the northern half of the peninsula - on Thursday
Most of the forecast models seem to have initialized Hermine's center too far to the west, and it is quite possible that Hermine may move slightly more to the right than I have indicated - which primarily would generate higher winds in west central Florida. A good guideline with this Tropical Storm is to extrapolate the current movement, whenever the storm turns more to the north northeast, and use that as the expected track since nothing is likely to move the storm to the left of that line.