Atlantic Slowly Reawakening as Heart of Season Nears
Posted: 04:27 PM 10 August 2018 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 04:49 PM 10-Aug EDT
As expected, a non-tropical low has formed in the north-central Atlantic and is showing some signs of being able to transition into a sub-trop or tropical cyclone. This system is now being tracked as an Invest, 98L, but is no threat to the Americas while it meanders over the subtropical Atlantic.
Elsewhere, the weak disturbance between the Caribbean and Africa has been decimated and is now given a near-zero chance of developing.
The climatological heart of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is now just about a week away, generally thought of as mid-August trough mid-October, and while 2018 is expected by most specialists to end up with far fewer named storms, hurricanes and majors than last year, "it only takes one." Now, while it is still quiet, is a great time to do hurricane preparedness, so when the peak does come, and if a significant storm approaches, there will be less to worry about.
And all is not quiet. As of today, August 10, NHC is now focusing on two features. One, an expected development of a non-tropical low out in the central Atlantic that could acquire sub-tropical or tropical status much like pre-Debby did. This feature should not be a threat to the Americas. The other, a disturbance located about midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, could slowly develop next week as it travels west-northwest towards the Caribbean.
Subtropical Depression Five Event Related Links
Hector Tracking Hawaii too Close for Comfort in Pac. Debby Spins Fish in Atl.
Posted: 10:05 PM 02 August 2018 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 02:37 PM 06-Aug EDT
Invest 97L has become Sub-Tropical Storm Debby out in the north-central Atlantic. Debby is is expected to be short-lived and unlikely to affect land as a named cyclone.
9AM update 4 August 2018
Hurricane Hector is likely to stay south of the Hawaiian islands, but is close enough to feel some effects from rough surf, it should be monitored over the next week.
Invest 97L is out in the central Atlantic but likely to not affect land, it has a 20% chance for development.
August has started and the Atlantic basin is quiet, which is fairly usual for the start of August, things typically don't get going until mid to late August, and that seems to be the case this year.
However, in the Pacific, Hurricane Hector has increased to 110mph winds tonight, and the official forecast is starting to close in near Hawaii. Flhurricane normally does not discuss systems outside of the Atlantic since we don't have as many tools available, but we do make exceptions for any Hawaii threats.
The Current 5 day forecast keeps Hector as a Major Category 3 hurricane southeast of the Big Island, and some models project it may get closer mid to late next week (See the forecast lounge for details on that) However, some of the models keep it south of Hawaii, so it's in the monitoring state right now, but with a few of the models taking it over or near Hawaii it's time to start watching it. Odds are it stays south of Hawaii, however.
This will likely change some as the days progress, but it is important to watch into next week. If it approaches Hawaii next week, it will likely weakening (slowly) as it approaches, however. the threat to the Big Island is irritated by the active lava flows in the Puna region, and the non-native extremely tall and brittle Albizia trees are very susceptible to being blown over in even moderate Tropical Storm force winds.
We'll be monitoring it and update if the threat increases or not, since the timeframe for landfall (if it were to occur) would be mid to late next week, there are no cones showing approach. By this weekend there may be a better idea of it, and much more of one early next week. Those in the Big Island, and Maui should keep tabs of the system.
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Hawaii Tracker Big Island News
Invest 97L Event Related Links
Hurricanes Chris, Beryl and More
Posted: 02:52 PM 10 July 2018 | 2 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 01:33 PM 13-Jul EDT
An active month of July continues, with recon now finding Chris a hurricane. Fortunately, nearly all reliable guidance takes Hurricane Chris north-northeast to northeast away from the U.S., but the cyclone could continue to produce some serious rip current risks along the eastern seaboard.
Another Low to the northeast of Chris is weak, and significant development is not expected, although it could have some influence on the path Chris takes.
Southeast of Chris, the low pressure remains of former Hurricane Beryl continue struggling, but a new mid-level center may be trying to form along the northern portion of this trough. Interests in the region should continue to monitor this disturbance closely, and stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center for updates. NHC odds of 20% within 48 hours/50% within 5 days, and these odds could be going up.
Finally, way, way, way out in the Tropical Atlantic, an active portion of the ITCZ is worth keeping an eye on, as despite Sea Surface Temps running well below average in the Tropical Atlantic so far this seasaon, African Easterly Waves have been busier and friskier than usual.
For Chris model talk and more check out the Hurricane Chris Lounge
For more Beryl model talk, go beyond the cone with us in the Beryl Lounge.
Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Tropical Storms Beryl & Chris
Posted: 07:50 PM 03 July 2018 | 8 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 10:22 PM 08-Jul EDT
TD3 has become Tropical Storm Chris. Chris is expected to become a hurricane, and possibly a formidable one, while over the Gulf Stream.
Beryl has been re-firing convection overnight in response to some westerly shear. Sometimes this can help a fledgling tropical cyclone get itself together (or together again, in the case of Beryl), and so deserves to be monitored. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should still prepare for tropical storm conditions possibly affecting some portion or portions of the islands later tonight and/or Monday.
4:30PM EDT Update 6 July 2018
Invest 96L has become TD 3 a few hundred miles southeast of the North Carolina coast. The cyclone may pull up nearly stationary, or just meander, and cook, over anomalously warm waters in this region for several days. A potential significant threat if it turns toward the U.S., and needs to be watched.
11AM EDT Update 6 July 2018
Beryl is gaining strength today and its small size has insulated it from a lot of the negative effects. The official forecast now keeps it a hurricane into the East Caribbean before weakening in the Caribbean.
Hurricane watches could be required for some islands in the Lesser Antilles by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds are likely to begin over some of the islands by Sunday evening.
Meanwhile 96L near the NC coast could form this weekend or early next week.
Those in the Lesser Antilles should now pay very close attention to Beryl, and those in North Carolina should be monitoring the wave 96L closely.
5AM EDT Update 6 July 2018
Tiny Tropical Cyclone Beryl becomes Hurricane Beryl, the first Hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season, while at a very south latitude in the Tropical Atlantic.
Elsewhere, recently Invest-tagged 96L off the southeast U.S. continues organizing, and may get listed as a Potential Tropical Cyclone, TD, or even a named storm as soon as later today, perhaps necessitating Watches and/or Warnings along parts of the east coast over the weekend and/or early next week.
For in-depth Beryl model talk and more, go beyond the cone with us in the Hurricane Beryl Lounge.
For 96L model talk and more check out the Invest 96L Lounge
Eastern NC/OBX/Hampton Roads Media:
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
2:30PM EDT Update 5 July 2018
Tropical Depression Two becomes Tropical Storm Beryl.
Noon Update 5 July 2018
Tropical Depression two forms in the East Atlantic, but expected to dissipate before reaching the Caribbean.
The Atlantic Tropics are starting to show some signs of life this July, although nothing is an imminent threat to land.
First an area southeast of Bermuda that has a low, 20% chance to develop, but would remain out to sea.
Another is the area in the East Atlantic, being tracked as 95L tonight, this also has a 20% chance to develop, but will run against some unfavorable conditions.later in the week, however ultimately it may develop beyond that, so its worth watching, some models turn it into a tropical storm next week..
July expands the area we watch for development, but typically activity doesn't pick up to a serious degree until mid to late August. However, July storms can happen so we'll be watching.
Activity in the Atlantic has been fairly sparse so far this year, with the Pacific being much more active, a sign that El Nino may be a factor this year.
Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Atlantic Hurricane Season 2018 Officially Begins
Posted: 07:02 AM 01 June 2018 | | Add Comment
Last year, Harvey, Irma, Maria, Nate, the 4 hurricanes that hit the United States last year will be remembered. The first three, Harvey, Irma, and Maria were the trio that broke the chain of no major us-landfalling hurricanes for 11 years prior. These affected the areas they hit greatly.
Rockport, Texas by the wind, and much of eastern Texas from the flooding rains. Harvey was retired and will remain a strong memory for many in the area.
Irma, wiping out Barbuda in the Caribbean, ST. Martin, Virgin Islands, and others, before moving into Cuba and Florida, the worst damage on the mainland being just east of Key West, FL.
Maria, first devistating the island of Dominica before tearing apart much of Puerto Rico.
This year won’t be like that, but there is no guarantee another major hurricane will not hit again, in different ways. The water temperatures are a bit cooler, and the shear is likely to be more impactful, but still the overall favorible pattern exists. Alberto was the early foray into the season, with one of the oddest sub-tropical systems that we’ve seen in a good while.
Beyond Alberto, the next area to watch is likely the West Caribbean and Gulf still (particularly in 10-12 days), then expanding into more of the Atlantic in July.
Once again we’ll be watching out in the Atlantic, and Hawaii if any storms threaten there.
This is also the first year of operational Goes-16 satellite data, which is still being integrated into various websites.
Remember, this site (and others like it) should just supplement, but not replace the official sources.
Be Hurricane prepared!
Sales Tax Holiday
This year Florida has a Hurricane Supply Sales Tax Holiday running June 1-7, 2018
This Includes reusable ice packs $10 or less.
$20 or less flashlights, lanters, cancles.
$25 or less: Any gas or diesel fuel container, including LP gas and kerosene containers
$30 or less: Batteries, including rechargeable batteries, excluding automobile and boat
Coolers and ice chests (food-storage; nonelectrical)
$50 or less: tarps, Visqueen, plastic sheeting, plastic drop cloths, and other flexible waterproof sheeting
Ground anchor systems, Tie-down kits, Bungee cords, Ratchet straps, Radios (powered by battery, solar, or hand-crank)
Two-way, Weather band
and Portable Generators Selling for $750 or less.
Invest 91L Event Related Links
Hurricane Matthew Weather Summary for East Central Florida
Posted: 05:32 PM 16 October 2016
A low pressure reading of 28.97" was recorded at Melbourne NWS at 7AM. At 7:30AM I noted a pressure reading of 28.98" at my home in northwest Melbourne. The lowest pressure was located in the southern section of the eye of the hurricane and the central pressure from the Hurricane Hunters was recorded at 938MB (27.90") at 1AM. At 4AM the aircraft reported a circular eye with a diameter of 32NM and a central pressure of 942MB with flight level wind at 118 knots which translates to a 100 knot surface wind (115mph). At 7:17AM the aircraft sent a position fix for the eye at 28.6N 80.2W with a pressure of 942MB and eyewall sustained surface winds of 110 knots. The eye of Matthew had contracted to a circular 20NM diameter as the hurricane passed to the east of the area. Although the radius of the eye had contracted from 17NM to 10NM, the radius of sustained hurricane force winds remained at 40 miles to the west of the center. The central pressure increased and leveled off at 947MB during the day on Friday as Matthew moved NNW. If the eye of Matthew had moved along the shoreline, i.e., if it had been 35-40 miles further to the west, damage would have certainly been greater but no realistic conclusion can be made with regard to the extent of the destruction because an on-shore system would have slowly weakened.
Matthew goes into the record books as a Category I Hurricane in a small section of the Brevard County coast. In some reports from the NHC the flight level Recon wind speeds were not reduced correctly and resulted in stated maximum eyewall surface wind speeds that were about 10mph too high - and I cannot find a valid meteorological reason for doing this. Hurricane Erin in 1995 and Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne in 2004 were all storms with a greater impact on Brevard County. While the early call by the Brevard Emergency Management Operations Center to evacuate residents from the Barrier Islands was prudent, the overstated intensity and inland impacts were mis-leading and confusing to some of our residents. The National Hurricane Center and The Weather Channel both over-hyped the overall magnitude of the storm - which will not help folks to make the correct decision when the next hurricane visits our area. Matthew was not the catastrophic Category IV storm of the century that was touted by some for our area. All hurricanes are dangerous and deserve proper preparation and decision-making. It is worth noting that the area from Melbourne Beach to Titusville has never recorded a Cat III or greater hurricane. Someday that record of 165 years will probably be broken, but Matthew was not that storm. Hurricane David, September 3-4, 1979, was the last Category II Hurricane to hit this area with eye passage along the coast from West Palm Beach to New Smyrna Beach.
Selected Weather Reports:
Vero Beach - wind W 49G74mph Rainfall 3.16"
Sebastian - wind N 30G59mph
5N Barefoot Bay - wind N G74mph
4NNW Grant - wind NW 51G68mph
Malabar - wind N 60G72mph
Melbourne Beach - wind N 23G63mph Lowest SLP: 28.85"
Melbourne (Dairy Road) - wind N 44G71mph
Melbourne - wind N 44G76mph Lowest SLP: 28.97"
NW Melbourne - wind NNW 42G65 Lowest SLP: 28.98 Storm Total Rainfall: 3.43"
Satellite Beach - wind N 69G87mph
2SSE Patrick AFB - wind N 69G88mph
South Patrick Shores - wind N 73G90mph Lowest SLP: 28.86"
Cocoa Beach Park - wind N 60G77mph
Merritt Island (Sunset Lakes) - wind NW 36G55mph Lowest SLP: 28.90"
Merritt Island (Banana River) - wind NNW 63G81mph
3WNW Cape Canaveral - wind gust N 86mph
4NE Cape Canaveral - wind gust NNW 81mph Coastal Flooding
5NE Port Canaveral - wind gust N 100mph
KSC Tower 22 - wind gust NW 107mph (non-standard anemometer height)
KSC Tower 3 - NNW 77G107mph (non-standard anemometer height)
Titusville (Parrish Park) - wind N 58G75mph
5NNE New Smyrna Beach - wind gust N 80mph
Daytona Beach (Speedway) - wind gust NNW 91mph
5NE Lake Mary - 24 hour rainfall 7.04"
Orlando Intl Airport - wind W 30G61mph Lowest SLP: 29.30"
From the Melbourne NWS:
G. STORM IMPACTS BY COUNTY...
COUNTY DEATHS INJURIES EVACUATIONS
BREVARD 0 1 UNKNOWN
ONE DIRECT INJURY. A MALE IN HIS 40S WAS INJURED IN PORT CANAVERAL
WHEN A SIGN FELL AND STRUCK HIM DURING THE STORM. DAMAGE TO
BUSINESSES AND HOMES MAINLY AS A RESULT OF FALLEN TREES. SEVERAL
HOMES WITH WATER INTRUSION DUE TO DAMAGED ROOFS. TWO HOMES LOST TO
FIRE AS OFFICIALS SUSPENDED EMERGENCY SERVICES DURING THE HEIGHT OF
THE STORM. SPORADIC COUNTYWIDE DAMAGE TO FENCES...AWNINGS...AND
SCREEN ROOMS. AN INITIAL COASTAL SURVEY INDICATES MODERATE TO MAJOR
BEACH EROSION WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO BERMS AND DUNES.
PRELIMINARY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT INDICATES AN ECONOMIC LOSS OF $25
MILLION DUE TO COASTAL EROSION, AND $4 MILLION DUE TO VEGETATIVE
LOSSES. PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT HAS NOT BEEN COMPLETED. ABOUT
300,000 CUSTOMERS WERE WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
INDIAN RIVER 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. ROUGH SURF AND MAJOR BEACH EROSION.
PRELIMINARY BEACH DAMAGE ASSESSMENT DETAILS MAJOR DUNE EROSION AND
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PEDESTRIAN CROSSWALKS WITHIN COUNTY OWNED
BEACH PARKS WITH AN ESTIMATED ECONOMIC LOSS OF $13 MILLION. SEVERAL
HOMES DAMAGED MAINLY BY FALLEN TREES.
LAKE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR URBAN...ROADWAY...AND LOWLAND FLOODING.
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER NEAR ASTOR PEAKED JUST BELOW MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE. MINOR DAMAGE TO FOUR HOMES WITH MAJOR DAMAGE TO THREE CAUSED
MAINLY BY FALLING BRANCHES AND TREES. EARLY PROPERTY DAMAGE
ASSESSMENT OF APPROXIMATELY $389 THOUSAND.
MARTIN 0 1 UNKNOWN
ONE INDIRECT INJURY. A 47-YEAR-OLD MALE WAS ELECTROCUTED WHEN HIS
TOOLS HIT A LIVE POWER LINE WHILE TRIMMING TREES IN STUART AFTER
THE STORM ON MONDAY OCTOBER 10 AROUND 8:15 AM. ROUGH SURF AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION. MINOR DAMAGE TO HOMES MAINLY AS A RESULT OF FALLEN
TREES. ISOLATED DAMAGE TO FENCES...AWNINGS...AND SCREEN ROOMS.
PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT NOT YET AVAILABLE.
OKEECHOBEE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO ONE HOME. UP TO 2300
CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER AT HEIGHT OF STORM.
ORANGE 1 0 UNKNOWN
ONE DEATH INDIRECTLY RELATED TO HURRICANE MATTHEW. A 70-YEAR-OLD
WOMAN DIED AFTER HER MEDICAL DEVICE FAILED DURING A POWER OUTAGE.
PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT NOT YET AVAILABLE FROM OFFICIALS.
OSCEOLA 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. NO REPORTS OF STRUCTURAL DAMAGE OR FLOODING.
MINOR DAMAGE MAINLY TO TREES AND VEGETATION. UP TO 5900 CUSTOMERS
WERE WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
SEMINOLE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR URBAN...ROADWAY...LOWLAND AND RIVER
FLOODING. DAMAGE TO BUSINESSES AND RESIDENCES MAINLY BY FALLING
BRANCHES AND TREES. INITIAL PROPERTY DAMAGE ESTIMATED $15 MILLION.
UP TO 70,000 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
ST. LUCIE 2 2 UNKNOWN
TWO INDIRECT DEATHS AND TWO INDIRECT INJURIES. A 58-YEAR-OLD INDIAN
RIVER ESTATES WOMAN DIED OF A HEART ATTACK AND A PORT ST. LUCIE MAN
IN HIS 80S DIED AFTER SUFFERING BREATHING PROBLEMS AND SYMPTOMS OF A
STROKE AS FIRE OFFICIALS SUSPENDED EMERGENCY SERVICES DURING THE
HURRICANE. A 90-YEAR-OLD MALE AND FEMALE WERE FOUND UNCONSCIOUS IN
THEIR PORT ST. LUCIE HOME AFTER OFFICIALS DISCOVERED THEY WERE
RUNNING A GAS GENERATOR IN THEIR GARAGE. ROUGH SURF AND MODERATE TO
MAJOR BEACH EROSION. DAMAGE CONFINED MAINLY TO TREES...POWER
LINES...AND SIGNAGE THROUGH THE COUNTY. PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT
NOT YET AVAIALBLE FROM OFFICIALS.
VOLUSIA 4 0 UNKNOWN
ONE DIRECT AND THREE INDIRECT FATALITIES. A 63-YEAR-OLD WOMAN DIED
WHEN A TREE FELL ON HER AS SHE WAS OUT FEEDING ANIMALS AT HER DELAND
HOME. A 89-YEAR-OLD MAN FROM DELEON SPRINGS WAS ELECTROCUTED BY A
DOWNED POWER LINE MONDAY MORNING AROUND 8:00 AM OCTOBER 10. A 47-
YEAR-OLD NORTHEAST OHIO MAN ASSISTING CLEANUP EFFORTS IN ORMOND
BEACH WAS KILLED WHEN PART OF A DOWNED TREE ROLLED ON TOP OF HIM AND
PINNED HIM UNDERNEATH. A 9-YEAR-OLD DAYTONA BEACH BOY WAS FOUND
UNCONSCIOUS IN HIS HOME AFTER OFFICIALS DISCOVERED A GENERATOR
RUNNING IN ANOTHER ROOM. THE BOY LATER DIED AT HALIFAX HEATLH
MEDICAL CENTER. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUSINESS THROUGHOUT
THE COUNTY WITH OVER 6400 PROPERTIES AFFECTED, 1100 WITH MINOR
DAMAGE, 300 WITH MAJOR DAMAGE, AND 40 STRUCTURES DESTROYED. INITIAL
PROPERTY DAMAGE ESTIMATE OF $490 MILLION. ROUGH SURF AND MAJOR BEACH
EROSION. BEACH EROSION DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.