October Ending with Multiple Systems
Posted: 11:42 AM 25 October 2019 | | Add Comment
Another late-season, formerly non-tropical, hurricane-force cyclone way out in the Atlantic a few hundred miles west of the Azores islands has continued transitioning into a more subtropical to tropical cyclone, and advisories could begin at any time later today on this system. Largely forecast to be short-lived as a subtropical or tropical cyclone, a few of the others this year have exceeded expectations, and interests in and around the Azores islands may want to pay closer attention. The next name up on the list in the Atlantic this year is Rebekah.
Update 11PM CDT Oct 25, 2019
#Olga is now post-tropical. Olga is the 7th Atlantic named storm to last <= 24 hours as a named storm in 2019. 2019 now has the record for most named storms lasting one day or less, breaking the old record of 6 named storms lasting <=24 hours in the 2005 #hurricane season. - Philip Klotzbach
Update 4PM CDT Oct 25, 2019
#Olga and #Pablo are the latest calendar year Atlantic named storms on record to be named simultaneously. The previous record was October 9 (set in 1878). - Philip Klotzbach
Update 2PM CDT Oct 25, 2019
Recon is presently in SEVENTEEN and finding winds well within tropical storm force. In addition, there are structural clues as well as conditions over the gulf with the front suggesting that it may remain predominantly a tropical cyclone for longer than originally expected. Louisianans and those in the north-central Gulf may want to begin paying this storm much more attention.
Invest 98L to the southwest of the Azores may become a Vince-like hurricane and is also likely to be named at any time.
2019 continues to be active, with newly formed TD 17 in the northern Gulf - and quite possibly already a tropical storm pending better confirmation - plus, formerly non-tropical Invest 98L in the northern Atlantic a few hundred miles southwest of the western Azores, which could also get a name at any time. The next two names on the list this year in the Atlantic are Olga and Pablo.
This season has already tied 2005 for 'the most named storms lasting one day or less on record' (Philip Klotzbach), and depending on what happens with SEVENTEEN (or any others perhaps still yet to come), could become the new record holder of one-day-or-less-named storms.
Forecast Lounges: Olga Lounge, Pablo Lounge
OLGA Event Related Links
Floater Satellite Images:
North Gulf Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:
Tropical Storm Nestor in NE Gulf
Posted: 02:55 PM 16 October 2019 | 3 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 11:49 AM 19-Oct EDT
SIXTEEN has become Tropical Storm Nestor. Nestor is a hybridish tropical storm, but tropical enough to qualify. More importantly, the impacts from this cyclone are going to be much more in line with that of a strong tropical storm - and perhaps yet still a hurricane - than garden variety subtropical storms, although very lopsided, with most of the worst weather on the eastern side, for now.
10:00 AM EDT Update 17 October 2019
96L is expected to become a named storm later today or tonight, and NHC advisories have been issued for what is now PTC SIXTEEN.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect east of the Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown, Florida.
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Indian Pass, Florida, to Clearwater, Florida.
Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Area Forecast Discussions:
New Orleans -
Tampa/West Central Florida
Conditions for subtropical and tropical cyclone development closer to home are on the rise climatologically in mid to late October, and right on cue we have a concerning trof in the southwestern Gulf, having split off from the same parent Central American feature that went on to also spin out PTC SEVENTEEN in the eastern Pacific yesterday.
Now over the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche, 96L is showing signs of pulling things together at a somewhat faster clip, and as of this post, NHC gives it a coin toss of becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone within just the next 48 hours.
Nestor Forecast Lounge: Nestor
Tropical Storm Nestor Event Related Links
Melissa and the last part of October
Posted: 07:55 AM 13 October 2019 | | Add Comment
94L is the far east Atlantic off Africa has a higher chance to develop at the moment than the wave in the western Caribbean near Honduras, it wil be worth watching to see if it makes it into the Bay of Campeche or not. We'll be watching that and anything else that pops up.
The area to concentrate on watching the West Caribbean and Gulf this time of year.
Melissa Event Related Links
Floater Satellite Images:
Tropical Depression 15 (East Atlantic Event Related Links
Posted: 11:27 AM 22 September 2019 | 9 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 05:51 PM 26-Sep EDT
Tropical Storm Karen is barely a Tropical storm this morning and now forecast to weaken into an open wave, meaning it will most likely dissipate in the future because of hostile conditions, which is good news. We'll continue to monitor it.
Lorenzo on the other hand is a category 3 hurricane in the open Atlantic, but it is staying out to sea. Although in the long term the Azores may want to watch it to see how close it gets.
No other areas are being really watched right now, as the Yucatan wave never really materialized. The general areas that are watched more closely into October are the Western Caribbean and Gulf, but neither has anything at the moment to watch now..
6:00 AM EDT Update 25 September 2019
Tropical Storm Karen is now north of the Caribbean and forecast to remain a Tropical storm over the next 5 days. The forecast takes it generally north or just east of north until Friday where the system slows down and does a clockwise loop before heading back to the west on the weekend. This is an unusual track, but the building ridge in the wake of now Post-Tropical Jerry should be enough to force it back west, and also likely weaken the system some due to shear. However, how much weakening is up in the air.
Beyond the 5 day track it is possible for Karen to get close to the Bahamas, and those in the Bahamas and even Florida should still watch. The ridge could be strong enough to push Karen fairly far south, although if it does the storm is likely to be very weak. The timing and how long Karen stalls before moving west are key things to watch for the long term impacts, as well as how strong (or weak) Karen is at the time. I'd expect the end of the forecast track to shift south and west over the next few days.
Bottom line Karen needs to be watched for Florida, but too soon to tell what impacts.it would have, if the storm is indeed moving west on Sunday we'll likely have a better general idea then. If it were to impact Florida it would likely be mid to late next week if it stays together as a system (it may dissipate once it moves further west).
Hurricane Lorenzo is still moving west in the far east Atlantic, and forecast to become a major hurricane and recurve well out sea. Although the Azores still may want to keep watch to see how close Lorenzo manages to get later.
Additionally, the Yucatan area has a 20% chance to develop,
5:30 AM EDT Update 24 September 2019
Karen has regained Tropical Storm strength again overnight and is now forecast to be over the eastern side of Puerto Rico this afternoon and quickly move north of the Caribbean. Tropical Storm Warnings remain up for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
After this it is expected to move north or just east of north for most of the week before slowing down over the weekend then moving back to the west all while remaining a tropical storm. Beyond this things still are interestin gas the ridge that develops between Karen and Jerry is strong enough to push Karen westward which means Florida and the Bahamas will need to watch this system into the mid to later part of next week. As of now it looks like shear and dry air conditions will likely keep Karen on the weaker side, but intensity forecasting is very difficult.
Jerry is also weak and moving near Bermuda as a tropical storm, it's closest approach to Bermuda will be tomorrow.
Lorenzo is a tropical storm in the far eastern Atlantic and is forecast to be a major hurricane, but not expected to affect any land areas.
There is also a low chance area for development near the Yucatan (20%) that is being watched.
7:30 AM EDT Update 23 September 2019
Tropical Storm Karen is very weak this morning and could even weaken to depression strength today in the East Caribbean. However there is now a Tropical Storm Warning up for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. And a watch for the British Virgin Islands as it nears the area. Assuming Karen survives conditions are better for development once north of the Caribbean.
Once beyond the Caribbean the Bahamas and Florida may want to watch this and the models suggest the ridge will be strong enough after Jerry moves out to push Karen toward the west toward Florida and the Bahamas, the forecast track shows the bend west at the end. .Plenty of time to watch, but Karen has a much higher chance to be forced west than any of the other recent systems.
Tropical Depression 13 formed in the east Atlantic off Africa. This one is expected to stay out to sea, but may near the Azores at some point.
Tropical Storm watches are up for Bermuda for Jerry as it is expected to pass enough north for only some of the impacts to be felt there, those in Bermuda should continue to watch it closely in case of changes.
Tropical Storm Karen has formed near the southern windward islands in the Caribbean, * this one should be followed very closely over the next two weeks *. Because of the current position, Tropical Storm Warnings are up for Trinidad and Tobago, Grenada and its dependencies, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
Tropical Storm watches are now up for Puerto Rico, the US and British Virgin Islands and also Vieques and Culebra.
Currently Karen is expected tor remain a tropical storm while in the Caribbean as it is somewhat disorganized and fighting shear, there is a potential for the system to fall apart completely if the shear intensifies too much.
If it survives, beyond the Caribbean, the track slows, and becomes very complex. after the 5 day time period of the official forecast, some of the more reliable models suggest the ridge builds back to the north which would drive Karen almost due west. So those in the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida should monitor this over the coming week. If it does affect Cuba or Florida it would likely be around October 1st (give of take a few days). Plenty of time to watch to see if this hard left idea materializes or not and how strong Karen is at this time.
Tropical Storm Jerry is still a few days out, no watches are up for Bermuda at this time.
Outside of the two systems there in an area just off Africa that has a 90% chance for development.
As always, feel free to follow along with us in the Forecast Lounge, where we dive into a good deal of model talk. Active Lounges include:
Invest 96L Lounge , Jerry Lounge, Karen Lounge, Lorenzo Lounge
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Bermuda Weather Service
Karen Event Related Links
Back Half of the Season Kicking off With Multiple Systems
Posted: 08:00 PM 16 September 2019 | | Add Comment
Conditions for development across the Atlantic are entering a new phase, with several systems worth watching, not the least of which is powerful Hurricane Humberto, now expected to become a Major within the next 36 hours and potentially directly impact Bermuda.
Much closer to the CONUS, an area of disturbed weather in the western Gulf of Mexico has strong model support to produce a deluge in eastern Texas whether or not it ever gets a name. This system is potentially a particularly dangerous situation unfolding, and just because it does not already have a name (and may never get one) is no reason not to prepare for something akin to a very slow moving Tropical Storm, with training bands of showers and thunderstorms setting up over some of the same areas - exact locations which as of yet are still unknown, but could even include parts of the very flood-prone Houston metro.
In the eastern Caribbean we are still keeping an eye out on Invest 96L, which is being held in check from high shear. However, behind 96L we are laser focused on 97L, with now 90% NHC odds of development, and a track that at this point is just too close to call for the Antilles.
As always, feel free to follow along with us in the Forecast Lounge, where we dive into a good deal of model talk.
Current active Lounges include:
Humberto Lounge , Invest 96L Lounge , Jerry Lounge, Imelda Lounge , Invest 99L Lounge
Harris County Flood Warning System
Houston/Galveston Related Links:
Bermuda Weather Service
Humberto Event Related Links
Floater Satellite Images:
East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:
Hurricane Matthew Weather Summary for East Central Florida
Posted: 05:32 PM 16 October 2016
A low pressure reading of 28.97" was recorded at Melbourne NWS at 7AM. At 7:30AM I noted a pressure reading of 28.98" at my home in northwest Melbourne. The lowest pressure was located in the southern section of the eye of the hurricane and the central pressure from the Hurricane Hunters was recorded at 938MB (27.90") at 1AM. At 4AM the aircraft reported a circular eye with a diameter of 32NM and a central pressure of 942MB with flight level wind at 118 knots which translates to a 100 knot surface wind (115mph). At 7:17AM the aircraft sent a position fix for the eye at 28.6N 80.2W with a pressure of 942MB and eyewall sustained surface winds of 110 knots. The eye of Matthew had contracted to a circular 20NM diameter as the hurricane passed to the east of the area. Although the radius of the eye had contracted from 17NM to 10NM, the radius of sustained hurricane force winds remained at 40 miles to the west of the center. The central pressure increased and leveled off at 947MB during the day on Friday as Matthew moved NNW. If the eye of Matthew had moved along the shoreline, i.e., if it had been 35-40 miles further to the west, damage would have certainly been greater but no realistic conclusion can be made with regard to the extent of the destruction because an on-shore system would have slowly weakened.
Matthew goes into the record books as a Category I Hurricane in a small section of the Brevard County coast. In some reports from the NHC the flight level Recon wind speeds were not reduced correctly and resulted in stated maximum eyewall surface wind speeds that were about 10mph too high - and I cannot find a valid meteorological reason for doing this. Hurricane Erin in 1995 and Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne in 2004 were all storms with a greater impact on Brevard County. While the early call by the Brevard Emergency Management Operations Center to evacuate residents from the Barrier Islands was prudent, the overstated intensity and inland impacts were mis-leading and confusing to some of our residents. The National Hurricane Center and The Weather Channel both over-hyped the overall magnitude of the storm - which will not help folks to make the correct decision when the next hurricane visits our area. Matthew was not the catastrophic Category IV storm of the century that was touted by some for our area. All hurricanes are dangerous and deserve proper preparation and decision-making. It is worth noting that the area from Melbourne Beach to Titusville has never recorded a Cat III or greater hurricane. Someday that record of 165 years will probably be broken, but Matthew was not that storm. Hurricane David, September 3-4, 1979, was the last Category II Hurricane to hit this area with eye passage along the coast from West Palm Beach to New Smyrna Beach.
Selected Weather Reports:
Vero Beach - wind W 49G74mph Rainfall 3.16"
Sebastian - wind N 30G59mph
5N Barefoot Bay - wind N G74mph
4NNW Grant - wind NW 51G68mph
Malabar - wind N 60G72mph
Melbourne Beach - wind N 23G63mph Lowest SLP: 28.85"
Melbourne (Dairy Road) - wind N 44G71mph
Melbourne - wind N 44G76mph Lowest SLP: 28.97"
NW Melbourne - wind NNW 42G65 Lowest SLP: 28.98 Storm Total Rainfall: 3.43"
Satellite Beach - wind N 69G87mph
2SSE Patrick AFB - wind N 69G88mph
South Patrick Shores - wind N 73G90mph Lowest SLP: 28.86"
Cocoa Beach Park - wind N 60G77mph
Merritt Island (Sunset Lakes) - wind NW 36G55mph Lowest SLP: 28.90"
Merritt Island (Banana River) - wind NNW 63G81mph
3WNW Cape Canaveral - wind gust N 86mph
4NE Cape Canaveral - wind gust NNW 81mph Coastal Flooding
5NE Port Canaveral - wind gust N 100mph
KSC Tower 22 - wind gust NW 107mph (non-standard anemometer height)
KSC Tower 3 - NNW 77G107mph (non-standard anemometer height)
Titusville (Parrish Park) - wind N 58G75mph
5NNE New Smyrna Beach - wind gust N 80mph
Daytona Beach (Speedway) - wind gust NNW 91mph
5NE Lake Mary - 24 hour rainfall 7.04"
Orlando Intl Airport - wind W 30G61mph Lowest SLP: 29.30"
From the Melbourne NWS:
G. STORM IMPACTS BY COUNTY...
COUNTY DEATHS INJURIES EVACUATIONS
BREVARD 0 1 UNKNOWN
ONE DIRECT INJURY. A MALE IN HIS 40S WAS INJURED IN PORT CANAVERAL
WHEN A SIGN FELL AND STRUCK HIM DURING THE STORM. DAMAGE TO
BUSINESSES AND HOMES MAINLY AS A RESULT OF FALLEN TREES. SEVERAL
HOMES WITH WATER INTRUSION DUE TO DAMAGED ROOFS. TWO HOMES LOST TO
FIRE AS OFFICIALS SUSPENDED EMERGENCY SERVICES DURING THE HEIGHT OF
THE STORM. SPORADIC COUNTYWIDE DAMAGE TO FENCES...AWNINGS...AND
SCREEN ROOMS. AN INITIAL COASTAL SURVEY INDICATES MODERATE TO MAJOR
BEACH EROSION WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO BERMS AND DUNES.
PRELIMINARY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT INDICATES AN ECONOMIC LOSS OF $25
MILLION DUE TO COASTAL EROSION, AND $4 MILLION DUE TO VEGETATIVE
LOSSES. PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT HAS NOT BEEN COMPLETED. ABOUT
300,000 CUSTOMERS WERE WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
INDIAN RIVER 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. ROUGH SURF AND MAJOR BEACH EROSION.
PRELIMINARY BEACH DAMAGE ASSESSMENT DETAILS MAJOR DUNE EROSION AND
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PEDESTRIAN CROSSWALKS WITHIN COUNTY OWNED
BEACH PARKS WITH AN ESTIMATED ECONOMIC LOSS OF $13 MILLION. SEVERAL
HOMES DAMAGED MAINLY BY FALLEN TREES.
LAKE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR URBAN...ROADWAY...AND LOWLAND FLOODING.
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER NEAR ASTOR PEAKED JUST BELOW MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE. MINOR DAMAGE TO FOUR HOMES WITH MAJOR DAMAGE TO THREE CAUSED
MAINLY BY FALLING BRANCHES AND TREES. EARLY PROPERTY DAMAGE
ASSESSMENT OF APPROXIMATELY $389 THOUSAND.
MARTIN 0 1 UNKNOWN
ONE INDIRECT INJURY. A 47-YEAR-OLD MALE WAS ELECTROCUTED WHEN HIS
TOOLS HIT A LIVE POWER LINE WHILE TRIMMING TREES IN STUART AFTER
THE STORM ON MONDAY OCTOBER 10 AROUND 8:15 AM. ROUGH SURF AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION. MINOR DAMAGE TO HOMES MAINLY AS A RESULT OF FALLEN
TREES. ISOLATED DAMAGE TO FENCES...AWNINGS...AND SCREEN ROOMS.
PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT NOT YET AVAILABLE.
OKEECHOBEE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO ONE HOME. UP TO 2300
CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER AT HEIGHT OF STORM.
ORANGE 1 0 UNKNOWN
ONE DEATH INDIRECTLY RELATED TO HURRICANE MATTHEW. A 70-YEAR-OLD
WOMAN DIED AFTER HER MEDICAL DEVICE FAILED DURING A POWER OUTAGE.
PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT NOT YET AVAILABLE FROM OFFICIALS.
OSCEOLA 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. NO REPORTS OF STRUCTURAL DAMAGE OR FLOODING.
MINOR DAMAGE MAINLY TO TREES AND VEGETATION. UP TO 5900 CUSTOMERS
WERE WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
SEMINOLE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR URBAN...ROADWAY...LOWLAND AND RIVER
FLOODING. DAMAGE TO BUSINESSES AND RESIDENCES MAINLY BY FALLING
BRANCHES AND TREES. INITIAL PROPERTY DAMAGE ESTIMATED $15 MILLION.
UP TO 70,000 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
ST. LUCIE 2 2 UNKNOWN
TWO INDIRECT DEATHS AND TWO INDIRECT INJURIES. A 58-YEAR-OLD INDIAN
RIVER ESTATES WOMAN DIED OF A HEART ATTACK AND A PORT ST. LUCIE MAN
IN HIS 80S DIED AFTER SUFFERING BREATHING PROBLEMS AND SYMPTOMS OF A
STROKE AS FIRE OFFICIALS SUSPENDED EMERGENCY SERVICES DURING THE
HURRICANE. A 90-YEAR-OLD MALE AND FEMALE WERE FOUND UNCONSCIOUS IN
THEIR PORT ST. LUCIE HOME AFTER OFFICIALS DISCOVERED THEY WERE
RUNNING A GAS GENERATOR IN THEIR GARAGE. ROUGH SURF AND MODERATE TO
MAJOR BEACH EROSION. DAMAGE CONFINED MAINLY TO TREES...POWER
LINES...AND SIGNAGE THROUGH THE COUNTY. PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT
NOT YET AVAIALBLE FROM OFFICIALS.
VOLUSIA 4 0 UNKNOWN
ONE DIRECT AND THREE INDIRECT FATALITIES. A 63-YEAR-OLD WOMAN DIED
WHEN A TREE FELL ON HER AS SHE WAS OUT FEEDING ANIMALS AT HER DELAND
HOME. A 89-YEAR-OLD MAN FROM DELEON SPRINGS WAS ELECTROCUTED BY A
DOWNED POWER LINE MONDAY MORNING AROUND 8:00 AM OCTOBER 10. A 47-
YEAR-OLD NORTHEAST OHIO MAN ASSISTING CLEANUP EFFORTS IN ORMOND
BEACH WAS KILLED WHEN PART OF A DOWNED TREE ROLLED ON TOP OF HIM AND
PINNED HIM UNDERNEATH. A 9-YEAR-OLD DAYTONA BEACH BOY WAS FOUND
UNCONSCIOUS IN HIS HOME AFTER OFFICIALS DISCOVERED A GENERATOR
RUNNING IN ANOTHER ROOM. THE BOY LATER DIED AT HALIFAX HEATLH
MEDICAL CENTER. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUSINESS THROUGHOUT
THE COUNTY WITH OVER 6400 PROPERTIES AFFECTED, 1100 WITH MINOR
DAMAGE, 300 WITH MAJOR DAMAGE, AND 40 STRUCTURES DESTROYED. INITIAL
PROPERTY DAMAGE ESTIMATE OF $490 MILLION. ROUGH SURF AND MAJOR BEACH
EROSION. BEACH EROSION DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.