CFHC Talkback For News Story #105:
Newest Talkback: 03:58 AM 09-21 EDT

TD#12 Nearly Gone
01:21 PM EDT - 20 September 2000

Still barely holding on (and arguably at that), Tropical Depression #12 is moving into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. This time the Northern Gulf coast looks like the likely place. If it strengthens, I don't expect much more than a tropical storm. If not, it'll break apart and still cause a good deal of rain.

Outside of TD#12, nothing imminent is out there.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for TD#12. From Michael Bryson.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Satellite images at: [NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #5 - #8 (of 25 total)
TD and NEW circulation (#5)
Posted by: Steve h.
Posted On 04:03PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Agree Frank and L.T. Looks like deep convection firing up. No reason, at least for the next 36 hours, why this shouldn't crank up a bit....but who knows. Direction is not clear cut either. Should development occur and it's northward motion slow, as it appears to have in the last few frames, than it could threaten the FLorida west coast as a front approaches and stalls at the FL/GA border. Everyone from Mobile to Ft. Myers should check on it. Anyone see the circulaiton developing at about 38W/15N? Looks like it could be trouble for the islands if what i'm seeing is correct...must be leftovers stirring up from the old wave. Cheer!!
Doesn't Look Dead to Me (#6)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:13PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQUR*)

What I have been seeing all day does not look like a "dead" storm at all. Anyone hear anything about latest recon info? Can't seem to find anything...being over Cuba, I would think it would be most difficult to get a plane in there (thanks Fidel, you moron!) to get an accurate position of a llcc if there was one. It may be weak, but it sure ain't dead.
T# Information (#7)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:19PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQUR*)

Here's your dead storm:

188

TPNT KGWC 201810

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE

B. 20/1645Z (118)

C. 22.1N/5

D. 85.0W/3

E. FIVE/GOES8

F. T1.5/1.5/S0.0 22HRS 20/1645Z

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI


40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL.

SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE MORE ORGANIZED THAN EARLIER THIS MORNING.

FINAL T BASED ON DT AND PT.


RECON AND INFO (#8)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 04:22PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (VSNSYNSWNQPY*)

recon is currently in the system,,,,earlier the recon this morning has a hard time placing a center as it flaculated between a closed low and trough due to the speed,,this is why the recon info is not listed,,unless they find a center of circulation.
The td is getting better organinzed and might be a TS soon,but i doubt at 5pm until the next recon,,the systems future will be determined tonight by strength and path,,,,,in general,,its slowing down a tad,,,,and a path to the n is going to happen later this evening or tonight and a turn ne later thursday or that evening,,,land fall will be from mbile to cedar key again,,wiht winds near 50mph,,but alittle weaker or stronger could happen,,,but lets see what happens tonight with the convection and pressure and also to see if it slows,,then direction will turn more e.
scottsvb
ps..are they still doing experiments this year trying to weaken hurricanes
Deja vu all over again.... (#9)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 05:08PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

That T report looks just like one on Gordon. The pressure dropped 2 mb since last advisory, system is better organized, good/developing outflow N, E, s, developing to the west.

Look just like Gordon did before the bottom dropped out...stay tuned.

IHS,

Bill
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