CFHC Talkback For News Story #118:
Newest Talkback: 02:41 AM 10-15 EDT

Hurricane Irene Forms South of Western Cuba
06:17 AM EDT - 14 October 1999

Although the future track is still somewhat debatable, signs indicate that it will effect us in Florida this weekend. There is already a hurricane Watch for the southern half of the Keys and for a good portion of western Cuba. We may see watches for the West Coast tomorrow.

How strong will Irene get and where will landfall be? This is open for discussion, and I'm not willing to comment yet. The storm is growing stronger now, but Cuba will impede it a bit. How much it does may be critical for us. We'll be watching.



For more information on Irene, NRL Monterey Tracking Site (Navy) -- Very nice forecast track graphics.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFDL Model & Plot for Irene and for BAMB,BAMM, LBAR & A90E Models Irene
Irene Multiple Model Forecast Composite from Michael Bryson

Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: Storm Centered imagery.

[N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #7 - #27 (of 48 total)
Irene (#7)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:33AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQXV*)

Alan---Hey I like you!!! You're right, there is no other way for people like us to talk back and forth. As for the cold front, they really weren't expecting that to make much of an impact until later today when it starts to slide down from Canada..some of the forecast discussions I have read from Florida this morning (from the IWIN site) stated that this system would stall until the system moved further south and started to have an impact on it. I would agree with you on NOGAPS, but so many other models have it moving on the forecast track it's hard to discount those also. I guess we will just wait and see. I just looked at the local radar and there are already feeder bands coming in just below Vero Beach. Looks heavy, too.
Hurricane Irene (#8)
Posted by: sir
Posted On 09:40AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNRX*)

I am totally up in the air on this one, I'm thinking Florida Panhandle right now, will see. :)
feeder bands (#9)
Posted by: alan byrd Location: orlando
Posted On 09:44AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNSR*)

Doesn't it look like the only strong part of the hurricane is those feeder bands. They've moved quite a bit this morning and don't seem to be slowing down. Here in Orlando, the sun is shinning with just some high clouds. I don't think that's going to last for too much longer. If you look at the radar out of Key West, you can see the center of the storm. While it's not well defined, it looks like it started to very slowly move to the north. I hate waiting until 11 to find out.
Feeder Bands (#10)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:50AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQXV*)

Yes, it does look less organized on the western edge. However, it could be making somewhat of a comeback. I noticed on the satellite loop it is looking a teensy weensy more organized. I love looking at the clouds (for now) over here. So many different levels. Anyway, looks like the sunshine could cause havoc when those feeder bands start heading our way. It's sunny here too. Looks like heavy heavy rain. I also hate waiting until 11:00. and then 2 and then 5. But, hey, at least we can TALK amongst ourselves until then, right?
ramblings (#11)
Posted by: alan byrd Location: orlando
Posted On 09:58AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNSR*)

Colleen,
I guess it's just us on the talk today, which is a shame, because I would like to here what others think about Irene.
Unfortunately I have to do some work from 10:30 to 11:30, but I'll post after then.
Irene (#12)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 10:17AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTVNQQP*)

Irene has slowed down considerably this morning in response to the weakening of steering currents aloft. A trough of low pressure has passed to the north of Irene, leaving Irene in an environment conducive to only slow northward progression over the next 24 hours. As an intense trough of low pressure stoops down from the north, the steering currents will fortify from the south-southwest, instigating a faster north-northeast motion. As for the chances of a westward motion, I think they are little. The overall cloud outline indicates that any motion will be northward.

The intensity of Irene should remain at 75 MPH as the storm moves across western Cuba. Thereafter, I expect to see the commencement of steady intensification to strong Category 1 or Category 2 strength. Intensification is dependent on the effects of dry air in the western Gulf and the anticipated trough of low pressure.

God Bless You,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
Irene (#13)
Posted by: Mark Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 10:43AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (QRNWWNQUPNQVS*)

Irene has stalled but this in it self is threatening for Florida. Most models yesterday showed a slow down north of Cuba aand then a more n-ne track there after. If this is the slow down that models forecasted then its much further south and as it starts to move again we may see a just east of north track develope and this may allow Irene to move more towards south Florida in the long term. I may be stretching it a little but this mournings upper air run is making me hedge a little this way for now..
Irene,,quick post (#14)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 10:47AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXTNRQY*)

Well,,,this will be very brief,,,and I will post
again will the next news on here comes out since
it should be soon.

Looking at her briefly,,she is a very disorganized
hurricane,,actually the pressure shows her still
as a tropical storm,,but they call her one anyway.

She is interacting with Cuba now and will be there through this afternoon,,later this evening when she slowly pulls north of there she will
intensify to maybe 100mph by morning,,,,,but lets
see how far off Cuba she is by then,,if barely,
then she might only be 80-90mph. scottsvb
Irene (#15)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 12:14PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNUQ*)

Folks,

one thing to note is that the NHC has been consistently shifting the track more north, with the 72 hr position an 80 mph hurricane over the Ocala/Gville area. They have reasons for doing this. I agree that the 'stall' has come on early, but I am not sure what this means in the long run, other than a slower movt over Cuba may result in slight weakening, or at least no real intensification.

As to intensification...I believe we will eventually see a cat 2, near 100 mph, as long as the storm moves mainly along the NHC path. To the right and it may only be a Cat 1, to the left and it may edge toward Cat 3 status , and also would become a threat to the panhandle.

Disorganized...yes, there is a dry slot, to the east of the tight CDO, that the storm is trying to close off. However, there is a tight CDO, and the majority of the center convection is over or to the WEST of the actual center.

As re: pressure, Irene is a very efficient hurricane in that it is generating hurricane force winds with a 995 pressure. Sometimes you may see this with a spinning down storm ( I remember one storm a few yrs ago that was a hurricane with a 1007 pressure...but it was weakening and had inertia on its side.) If it can maintain this status, it may well strongly intensify after Cuba with a very tight core and relatively tight radius of 50 kt plus winds, and a looser area of TS force winds.

Bill

Time will tell, and this may be around for a while...depends on the trough..also, realize that the early slow/stat motion may make it harder for the upcoming trough to pick it up...therefore there may be more strengthening in the future, and a threat further north.
Irene's path or A lazy thursday afternoon with cats palying with my feet! (#16)
Posted by: troy
Posted On 01:17PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQURNVRNXV*)

hello!
While i do see the path taking it over the Gainesville/Ocala area as an 80 mph storm , I dont see the western side being the stronger side. Latest satalite iamges seem to show more convection on the eastern side. That and the trend of tropical systems to be stronger on the right front quadrant will keep most of Florida wet and a little wendy.

The last few satalite images show wgat apears to be a jog to the east, but is probably just a quick build upof storms on theeastern side coinciding with a temporary decline in the western activity...it made me do a double take none the less...either way the sunshine state will continue to be the rain state...:Þ

Troy
Irene (#17)
Posted by: Mark Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 01:40PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (QRNWWNQUQNQXV*)

The last few satellites show the center now north-northeast of its 11am position but also showing a more northward drift. I believe by looking at satellite pictures its now somewhere near 82.8 west. This could be significant if the 2pm advisory shows this repositioning. Any one else see the same on visible satellite?
Projected Path (#18)
Posted by: Terry [CFHC]
Posted On 01:46PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPTNRQUNRRYNSV*)

src="images/wcpp.jpg"
Irene,,,no threat to N florida,,,north of tampa??? (#19)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 01:59PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXUNQSW*)

New postion is 82.4w this is the line
of Tampa,,,so people North of there should have
to worrie,,,and if this continues then only
people from Naples to West palm should take
interest in this,,,hhhmmmm is this another
storm afraid to hit Western Florida
Irene moving away (#20)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 02:00PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXUNQSW*)

Note ,,,,I ment no threat,,,,,,,
east????? (#21)
Posted by: Alan byrd Location: orlando
Posted On 02:03PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNSR*)

Well, my thoughts on going west or stalling don't seem to be panning out. Anybody know why the storm would be heading NE? That movement baffles me unless the trough that everyone thought had pulled out has lingered around a bit longer. If it's heading NE, then does that mean it will be torn up more by Cuba? What does all this mean?
Help
Irene and NOGAPs (#22)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 02:09PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNUQ*)

Hmmm,

I don't find NOGAPS to be a real solid performer but the NOGAPs run track over S Fl may verify. The storm has jogged NE...whether this is due to terrain influence or whatever, I wonder. It seems to me the trough in the Gulf is a little stronger and more persistent than expected...it is clear looking at the cloud structure of Irene that a NE move was in store (noticed this the last few hrs). But, it already seems the trough is lifting and the cloud shield is going back to a more N-S orientation. I would't be surprised to see the storm go up the Keys and over extreme S Fl.

What could be interesting would be if the jog east straightens out to a more N movement, but then due to the fact that the storm is further east than expected, it may go up the center of the state, or east coast for a while!

This storm is not behaving, but what is new! So much for 'easier to forecast' than Harvey!

The ideas expressed earlier that the stall happening further s than forecast, may mean a more easterly path, may turn out to be correct.

Thoughts??

IHS,

Bill
Irene (#23)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:11PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQWS*)

Scott- are you saying this is no threat to Florida at all anymore? That it's going to continue to move off to the ne and not hit anyone in Florida? I thought they just shifted the track to the right a little bit. I didn't hear them say this would be a permanent direction. Let me know what you are thinking.
Irene Moving Back Northward On Satellite (#24)
Posted by: Mark Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 02:46PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (QRNWWNQUPNRRR*)

The 2pm advisory did exactly what I thought. A eastward turn did take place for a few hours but now the last two pictures do show a northward movement again. Now things do change alot for southwest Florida and the Keys. Irene will move to the north over the next 48 hours and this now should bring Irene very close to southwest Florida late Friday. I also see a little strengthening taking place. I do not see much strengthening over the next 9-12 hours as Irene moves over Cuba but after it gets into the gulf I do see strengthening taking place more rapidly. I do see a possible extension of Hurricane warnings eastward in the Florida Keys at the 5pm advisory due to the eastward shift and maybe watches along the southwest coast of Florida will be brought up to warnings as well. This is all guess work right now but does seem a reasonable development at this time. We will have to wait and see. Now how strong will Irene get? The answer still is a Cat#2 storm with winds near 100mph gusts to 115mph. I don't see much stronger than this at this time and again its all guess work on my part. This change in position eastward makes Irene more of a threat to southwest Florida and even the northern Keys as well. People in Miami should also keep close eye on Irene there not out of the woods at all.
The next problem is rainfall. The forcast of 10"-20" I believe is a good figure at this time for alot of south Florida

Irene (#25)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:57PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQXQ*)

I just heard a comment that Dr. Steve Lyons said about the movement to the east, one of the severe storm guys was mentioning about the storms movement and the radar out of Key West (he said it so fast I couldn't tell you word by word) but something about it looking like has moved more to the East than it actually has ...I know that doesn't make any sense whatsoever, I will see if he says it again next time. It does look like it took a more northward movement the last couple of loops, though.
Irene moving N (#26)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 03:07PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNUQ*)

Mark, your comments are 100% right on. Agree entirely. I still think there is a possibility the storm will move right up the Peninsula...on the other hand, a skimmer right up the coast would be a Marco (1990) with teeth!

IHS,

Bill
weather channel (#27)
Posted by: alan byrd Location: orlando
Posted On 03:08PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNSR*)

I've got to get home to watch the weather channel. It's not like I'm doing any work. All I do is keep reloading this website to see all the great postings. It's about time that we hear from someone other than me and Colleen — not that there's anything wrong with that.
Clarification (#28)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 03:20PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQXQ*)

Ok, this time I caught what Dr. Lyon's was saying: the radar beam is coming from about 22,000 feet and it could make the circulation look as though it has moved more to the east than it actually has...that the center of circulation is probably a little sw than what the radar is showing. I have to say, I don't believe this storm is moving a 9mph. It just doesn't look like it to me. Then again, I could be wrong. I don't think anyone is out of the woods on this one yet.
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