CFHC Talkback For News Story #121:
Newest Talkback: 08:09 AM 09-30 EDT

Tropical Storm Keith Forms in Northwest Caribbean
02:38 PM EDT - 29 September 2000

8PM Update:
Keith is still drifting toward the Nortwest, Joyce is looking to head into the Caribbean Islands... It will be a busy next few days here at CFHC. Keith has the potential to be very strong, so it's the one to watch for us as it has a chance of affecting Florida later on. In fact, Hurricane Watches are already up on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico.

Original Update:
According to the special update from the Hurricane Center, Keith is now a Tropical Storm. Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the area have found strong enough winds and a good circulation to make this possible. In the last few hours, Keith has started to look a lot better. At 5PM the first advisories for the new Tropical Storm will be out. There may be watches issued along the Northwest Caribbean.

Keith has remained stationary, and probably will for a while. I eventually think it will nudge northward, but long term all bets are off. Along with a slightly weakened Joyce, we'll have two potential threats to land to track over the next several days.

More to come later.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for Isaac., Joyce, or Keith From Michael Bryson.
Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Stormwarn2000 - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.
Live Webcam image from Florida Emergency Management's Emergency Operations Center
Florida Emergency Management Activation Page / Situation Updates

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


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Displaying Talkbacks #2 - #22 (of 43 total)

Models On Keith (#2)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 03:04PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNTNTPNRPW*)



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL STORM FIFTEEN (AL1500) ON 20000929 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...

000929 1800 000930 0600 000930 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 17.4N 84.8W 18.0N 85.6W 18.6N 86.1W

BAMM 17.4N 84.8W 18.3N 85.6W 19.2N 86.0W

A90E 17.4N 84.8W 18.1N 85.7W 18.8N 86.3W

LBAR 17.4N 84.8W 18.4N 85.4W 19.8N 85.9W

SHIP 40KTS 52KTS 63KTS



...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...

001001 0600 001001 1800 001002 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 19.1N 86.4W 19.3N 86.7W 19.0N 87.6W

BAMM 19.8N 86.1W 20.2N 86.2W 20.4N 86.6W

A90E 19.4N 87.0W 19.8N 87.6W 21.1N 88.9W

LBAR 21.5N 86.2W 23.3N 86.1W 27.6N 84.4W

SHIP 72KTS 78KTS 87KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LAT0 = 17.4N LON0 = 84.8W DIR0 = 310DEG SPD0 = 6KT

LATM12 = 16.6N LONM12 = 83.6W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 6KT

LATM24 = 16.1N LONM24 = 82.9W

WND0 = 40KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



NNNN


Keith (#3)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, Fl
Posted On 03:05PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RQVNSNQXRNQQR*)


Looks like we have Keith in Northwest Caribbean.

Yes, We Do!! (#4)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 03:11PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNRPQ*)


Is it odd that they would update it at 2:30pm in the afternoon when it seems as if it is not all that close in proximity to Florida at this time? It seems odd to me. May be it's normal...also, Florida Emergency Management has gone from Phase I (monitoring) to Phase II (partial activation) today. That in itself is very strange and foreboding to me....any comments?

Not odd.... (#5)
Posted by:
Jim F. (http://flhurricane.com/~jfaul) Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 03:19PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNSQNXRNQQY*)


They gave an update because they have a plane in their right now and they found tropical storm force winds.

Discussions et. all (#6)
Posted by:
Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA (Currently)
Posted On 03:41PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)


I put up the Florida Forecast discussions again on the pop up advisories because they are now talking about Keith. (Read the Keys, Miami, and Melbourne!)

Also I added the link to the FEOC back too. When I said all bets are off in the story, I meant it. We'll be watching Keith very closely.

- mac

Latest on Keith (#7)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 03:42PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)


17.4N
84.8W

Winds 45kts
Pressure 1000mb (4mb drop in 18 hours).

Does anyone have any long range ideas for this storm? Does it move NW toward the Central Gulf, or NE toward Florida

Keith (#8)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:06PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQUY*)


I would say NE towards Florida. Just a hunch...that's all.

FDEM Alert status (#9)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 04:29PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)


Coleen-

FDEM has been at level 2 all week due to the folowup re: TS Helene. Also, their format is as follows:

Level 3- monitoring
Level 2- limited activation
Level 1- Full Activation

ti used to be the other way around with a level 4= federal forces present, but that all has been changed.

IHS,

Bill

Lastest GFDL (#10)
Posted by:
Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 04:33PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNS*)


Lastest GFDL model run has it going to New Orleans in 126 hours....

Thanks Bill (#11)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:37PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQUY*)


Thanks, Bill. I know what the monitoring stages meant. Didn't know it had been at level 2 all week.

Strengthening Keith (#12)
Posted by: Robert Location: West Palm Beach
Posted On 04:49PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNUS*)


WOW. Pressure down to 995 and 50 mph winds.

joyce eating dyna gel filled donuts? (#13)
Posted by:
troy (http://www.surfinfo.com/html/nwswave.html)
Posted On 04:49PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQVNTVNUT*)


loks like joyce is at 60mph winds now. maybe it is dyna gel..:)

or as i have often though...Steve Lyons is an alien..and controls the weather. Look at him closely next time.you will see it too. lol

On a more sane note. Surfers well the swell from isaac is starting to show, but, the ne winds from the pressure gradient from the front and high pressure is chopping it up bad.

Keith may be the one to watch fo the Florida folks...


Comment on Keith's possible intensity (#14)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 05:37PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUUNQPS*)


I've been impressed by Keith's steady increase in organization from this morning to now (4:30 CDT). Given that:
--shear is low
--SSTs are very warm (and the thermocline is deep)
--upper-level divergence is good
--the storm is embedded in a humid mid to upper-level environment

--there's a significant, but by no means certain, possibility that Keith may strengthen more rapidly than forecast. I'll spare myself, though, and not make any comments about its likely peak intensity. Also keep in mind that several storms this year have failed to thrive even under seemingly optimal conditions; Keith may be one of these.

anyone? (#15)
Posted by: ngdsol
Posted On 05:58PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNXQ*)


can someone tell us where they think keith will go long term and why.

no offense colleen but you think everything is coming to florida without any real reason...sorry

low off of florida? (#16)
Posted by:
troy (http://www.surfinfo.com/html/nwswave.html)
Posted On 05:59PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQVNTVNUT*)


has anyone noticed the low the avn 00z run puts off of the se??
the lin below is at 60 hrs but the 54 run shows it forming and the 72 has it there as well.


http://www.essc.psu.edu/rhart-cgi-bin/avntc2.cgi?time=2000092900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=66hr

check it out and see what ya think.
an interesting note: on wed night thur morn parts of brevard county recieved up to 9 inches of rain in about 12 hours( wheres the silver iodine/dyna- gel rocket when ya need it?) . The radar loop from that period and up to about 11am thur morning showed a bit of rotation to the rain mass. This was along what was and still is the frontal boundary.

would be intersting if a low did develope here. its happened before. those late fall systems love to do that.

troy




Keith/Joyce (#17)
Posted by:
Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 06:00PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQS*)


I have noticed that at about 25N the winds are pushing the clouds over central Fla. Will this make Keith take a more NE turn when he hits that area? Also it looks like Joyce is getting her act back together, what inpact will Keith have on Joyces track? Any comments would be great on this.

Ngdsol (#18)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 06:12PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNRPQ*)


I won't take offense to your comment...I do the research and look at the models and plot them out. Did I say Isaac was coming here? Did I say Alberto was coming here? or Beryl? I did say Gordon and Helene were coming and they did. Debby would have been here, except for wind shear. I guess time will tell where it will go, and if it doesn't come to Florida GREAT...if it does, than I was right in my readings of the models. Enough said...

thank you (#19)
Posted by: ngdsol
Posted On 06:15PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNXQ*)


thank you...i greatly respect your opinion on tropical cyclones. tell me what you think long term on keith

Respect (#20)
Posted by: Ken
Posted On 06:24PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQRYNPNQSQ*)


I really enjoy reading this site, look forward to its updates and rarely offer comments. However, lately this site has had to many writers challenging one another or out right critism. May I suggest that individually directed comments and forecasting that lacks a scientific approach be carried on in individual chat rooms. We can all benefit and learn from healthly conversation about storms and I am certain most of us would appreciate commentary that is germain to this site versus attacking some other person. And by the way Colleen, this is not directed at you.

no disrespect intended (#21)
Posted by: ngdsol
Posted On 06:27PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNXQ*)


i apologize and respect you all on this sight...sorry again

Thank You, Ken (#22)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 06:36PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQVW*)


I appreciate that. And you're right, it is getting a bit testy in here lately. Maybe we all need to take a step back and breath. I don't claim to be a meteorologist because I am not one, but there are certain things to look for that would lead you to believe a storm would be heading a certain way: troughs, upper level wind flow, favorable SST's and climatology. All I do is find the information and post the best I can with it. I track it, I plot it, I read the models (which by the way, have the information input by human beings, which can result in error in forecasting) but most of all, I look at whats going on in the atmosphere..think I will stay out of this room for a few days, just because 1)I caused some flack the other day, which I apologized for and 2) I am tired of everyone ripping people to shreds for posting their views. It's getting to the point where we are arguing amongst ourselves, not looking at the storms anymore.

colleen

Respect (#23)
Posted by: Ken
Posted On 06:40PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQRYNPNQSQ*)


I really enjoy reading this site, look forward to its updates and rarely offer comments. However, lately this site has had to many writers challenging one another or out right critism. May I suggest that individually directed comments and forecasting that lacks a scientific approach be carried on in individual chat rooms. We can all benefit and learn from healthly conversation about storms and I am certain most of us would appreciate commentary that is germain to this site versus attacking some other person. And by the way Colleen, this is not directed at you.


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