CFHC Talkback For News Story #99:
Newest Talkback: 04:52 AM 09-17 EDT

Gordon
10:53 AM EDT - 16 September 2000

update 2:30: Tropical Storm Warnings in effect from Bonito Beach to Suwanee River.
update Noon: Recon has found Gordon's pressure to be 986mb. A drop of 6mb. Gordon is strengthening.

Sorry for the Headline mistake. Gordon is still a Tropical Storm with 65mph winds.  Hurricane watches have been extended Suwanee River to Apalachicola.  Intensification is expected and Gordon should be a Hurricane soon. The NHC still feels it will landfall around the Big Bend, but that is subject to change. I still feel the track will move more east. What do you think?

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for TD#11. From Michael Bryson.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [jc]

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Displaying Talkbacks #15 - #35 (of 56 total)
pressure drop (#15)
Posted by: troy (http://†ÿ€©@hè) Location: titusville,fl
Posted On 12:35PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRTNQQSNQPR*)

the latest pressure drop is similar to the drop last night that led to the increased strenght and naming of the storm. 6mb in an hour while not being a bottom falling out situation is still a sign of healthy, intensifying storm.

whatever track it takes, a yucky, rainy weekend is in store for florida.
gorden and td12 (#16)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 12:36PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (VSNSYNSWNRT*)

Gorden is still on my forcasted track over the last 2 days. He should be a hurricane as of the 2pm update,,but defidently by 5pm.
With the latest pressure of 986mb this shows a 75-80mph hurricane....now most everyone knows that i am very cautious in the meteorolgy dept,since i am 1,,but I will have to let everyone in the florida area this. Moderate to strong intensification should begin this evening though tonight,,,,i expect a cat 3 by morning on sunday.
The reason of this is simple. The current rain in and around the tampa to orlando area has to do with the trough,,,not Gorden yet,,but this system is breaking apart due to the ridge building up from the cuba-bahamas area....I expected and said previously a ne or ene direction with this system and a turn to the nne later this evening as it loses the trough,....I feel a late Sunday landfall,,but i need to get back to the office to get more detailed info,,,just to see if it wobbles around sunday evn or move nne and across the tampa-cedar key area...when landfall occurs,,winds of 100-120mph should be expected around the center,,,but not 50 miles away will have 60-75miles sustained in the main squall bands. So my thinking is this will be the time line and strength of the system,,,overnight intensification is highly likly..a ne then nne progress should continue,,,speed of direction is the same until sunday aft,,,when it could slow down or speed up across the state....
TD12 should become a TS on sunday and move w and be a hurricane when it gets near Jamaica..by Tuesday..............
eye formation? (#17)
Posted by: gary Location: jacksonville
Posted On 12:39PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNUS*)

Is it just me or do you see an eye starting to form?
TD12 (#18)
Posted by: Darcy Location: Ontario, Canada
Posted On 01:20PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNTXNQRSNQPS*)

TD12 is now nothing.
I have no idea what will happen with it...maybe go to the gulf.

Direction of Gordon (#19)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 01:23PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNQXR*)

This is so unbelievable pathetic to me...these local forecasters INSIST that this systemm is going NE, when if you look at vis sat loop, it is headede ene...if this continues, and ends up making landfall south of Tampa, the NHC (if they don't adjust the track more east) should be held accountable for anything that happens to these people. A 12mb drop in 8 hours
Weather Report (#20)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 01:33PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQXPNV*)

Hello All,
Latest rain band going thru as I write wind gust of 21 mph from the south. Temp. 84 dewpoint 78 pressure 1015.2mb or 29.98 in. dropping slowly.
coleen (#21)
Posted by: troy (http://†ÿ€©@hè) Location: titusville,fl
Posted On 01:38PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRTNQQSNQPR*)

i agreee with you on the track. hopefully evryone in the watch area will tak ethe time to prepare now for anysituation that may accur.

waether on the space coast- overcast, 10mph ne breeze, probably from the front. not yet feeling any southerlies here.
Gordon (#22)
Posted by: Tracey
Posted On 01:54PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPWNVYNQRQNQUV*)

How do they expect Gordon to go further north with the troph dropping down into central Florida? I agree, I think it will probably go more to the east. Can it cause the troph to go back further north?


Gordon (#23)
Posted by: DCVoltz
Posted On 01:57PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQSXNTXNQQU*)

I Feel it will make landfall somwhere betwen tampa and Ft. Myers
there is a tropical wave to its south and a cold front to the north the angle of attack will change from 35° to 45° to 50°
pressure dropping (#24)
Posted by: troy Location: titusville,fl
Posted On 02:07PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRTNQQSNQPR*)

gordon's pressure down anothe 2mb to 984...



Gordon showing little movement in the past few hours. (#25)
Posted by: Tinpusher
Posted On 02:13PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNSS*)

Its possible that high pressure building in behind the cold front to the northeast may eventually block Gordons movement to the north and east. I not sure if this is what is happening, but the last two recon fixes have shown very little movement.
This Explains it all (#26)
Posted by: John C. (http://www.flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 02:30PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNXY*)

Following copied from 2pm Advisory:

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...ALL COASTAL INTERESTS ALONG
THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM FLORIDA TO MISSISSIPPI SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS STORM.
North Central Florida (#27)
Posted by: stormy
Posted On 03:11PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNTRNQQUNRUP*)

if Gordon hits florida, will it hit North Central Florida, in the Gainesville area? Please let me know ASAP.
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS STORM??? (#28)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 03:19PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNTV*)

Meaning what? They think it's going to intensify
This is what I was talking about: (#29)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 03:20PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNTV*)

HOWEVER...INTENSITY GUIDANCE MAKES GORDON A HURRICANE AND SO DOES
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

and, so, why wasn't it classified
Weather Report (#30)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 03:25PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQTUNWX*)

Temp. 85 dewpoint 76 wind south at 3 mph
Pressure 1013.3 mb or 29.93 in. Cloudy with dark skies to the southwest.
hurricane gorden (#31)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 03:27PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXUNRTW*)

Everyone,,gorden will be a hurricane by the 5pm advisory,,,,,,,also the wind speed will go up dramaticly overnight,,to over 100mph by morning on sunday,,,,,, a nne turn has occurd as i forcasted today and this motion should continue with wobbles to the ne.
I've been updating my personal hurricane page every hour,,,,please go to it to get the most up to date information on this,,,a path to cedar key and close to st pete is still the forcast,,,,,,,
scottsvb
On the Move (#32)
Posted by: Jim F. (http://flhurricane.com/jfaul/) Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 04:02PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVQNQQUNY*)

After a few hours of rest and relaxation in the 85 degree water it looks like our buddy is on the move again. Probably doing a little reorganizing also as healthy tropical systems like to do several times a day..otherwise things would be real dull and to easy to predict. Anyway, I still don't like this big bend scenario if for nothing else becasue the NHC says so and they have been so wrong so many times since Irene. The tendency to stay south and east for so many hours(called it jogs, wobbles, etc but E is E) plus the upper level flow plus just looking at the way the the thing is pointed and has been since late yesterday. I like some additional strengthing tonight and an upgrade as Gordon is ready to graduate to the next level, if he hasn't already. I don't like any of the models either..miserable initialization, miserable performance this year and probably just trying to deal with a very, very complex situation, anotherwards go back to basics to try and figure this one out.
North??? (#33)
Posted by: Barbara Location: Mobile
Posted On 04:16PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQTNTUNQXX*)

Is it just my imagination (I HOPE!) or did the last few clips just shown on The Weather Channel look like a "jog" straight north?? Someone please tell me I'm seeing things............

Thanks
On the Move (#34)
Posted by: Jim F. (http://flhurricane.com/jfaul/) Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 04:27PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVQNQQUNY*)

After a few hours of rest and relaxation in the 85 degree water it looks like our buddy is on the move again. Probably doing a little reorganizing also as healthy tropical systems like to do several times a day..otherwise things would be real dull and to easy to predict. Anyway, I still don't like this big bend scenario if for nothing else becasue the NHC says so and they have been so wrong so many times since Irene. The tendency to stay south and east for so many hours(called it jogs, wobbles, etc but E is E) plus the upper level flow plus just looking at the way the the thing is pointed and has been since late yesterday. I like some additional strengthing tonight and an upgrade as Gordon is ready to graduate to the next level, if he hasn't already. I don't like any of the models either..miserable initialization, miserable performance this year and probably just trying to deal with a very, very complex situation, anotherwards go back to basics to try and figure this one out.
Gordons future (#35)
Posted by: jim w
Posted On 04:29PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQUYNQWQ*)

This may sound crazy but I'M starting to think gordon may get sling shotted into apalachi bay. Just east of Apalachicola,my guess 80mph at landfall.
GORDEN STILL A TS,,NHC NEEDS HELP.... (#36)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 04:56PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXTNVT*)

Would anyone with no experience like to be head of the NHC
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