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Humberto and Imelda
Posted: 11:43 AM 26 September 2025 | 2 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 08:49 AM 30-Sep EDT
9AM EDT 30 September 2025 Update
Overnight, Imelda continued to organize deep convection despite nearby dry air and occasional dry air intrusions, and has become a stout Cat 1 hurricane. Further strengthening is probable and forecast, although not assured. There is a fair chance of significant strengthening now that Imelda is better organized and could fight off shear and dry air for a while as it tracks towards Bermuda, which all guidance has in its sights between 36-48 or so hours from now. The Hurricane Watch for Bermuda could soon become a Hurricane Warning.
Ciel
5AM EDT 28 September 2025 Update
More northerly motion has begun on TD#9 and the models have finally reached a decent consensus, which matches the current forecast track. T#9 is forecast to stay east of Florida (some areas along the east coast may see some squally weather) and make a hard right turn out to sea probably around Daytona and follow Humberto out to sea. Bermuda should watch, but the risk to the southeast ts rapidly decreasing.
11AM EDT 27 September 2025 Update
Tropical Depression Nine has formed.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.
from discussion:
Given the risk of tropical-storm-force winds along the east coast of
Florida, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Palm
Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Flagler/Volusia County
Line. Although it is still too early to specify the details of
potential impacts along the remainder of the southeast U.S. coast,
there remains a risk of heavy rainfall, storm surge, and wind
impacts.
10AM EDT 27 September 2025 Update
Humberto is now a powerful category 4 hurricane and is forecast to become a 5, the cone takes it north of Bermuda, but those there should monitor it closely.
For PTC9 it may develop later today, and the official forecast stall sit offshore of South Carolina. Tropical Storm Warnings are up for most of the Bahamas this weekend as it will pass through there. Dryer air in the Gulf will likely keep most of the convection and rain away from Florida as it passes by, as the storm doesn't have much on the west side, most areas in Florida won't see any rain from it. Beyond the Bahamas it's currently expected to stall offshore, but possibly close enough to South Carolina for some impacts there, and then head generally out to sea. There's is still a high degree of uncertainty, but that is currently the most likely. Everyone along the southeast and Bermuda should monitor this system, as things could change, especially if the system forms north of forecast or moves faster than forecast since it has not developed yet.
6:40PM EDT 26 September 2025 Update
Advisory packages are now out on NINE (Potential Tropical Cyclone formerly tracked as Invest 94L)
Ciel
Original Update
With echos of 2024, after a confounding long duration pause during the "peak" of the season that lulled many into complacency, the Atlantic basin is off to the races as we close out the month of September.
Hurricane Humberto is on the fast track to become a Major, our third of the year, and could accomplish this as soon as this afternoon. The updated NHC track has Bermuda in the Cone as well as potentially the Right Front Quadrant, where more often than not, the strongest weather occurs (wind, rain, flooding, surge, waterspouts, etc). There is a reasonable chance that Humberto reaches mid/high-end Saffir-Simpson Cat 4, and in fact, Cat 5 is not at all out of the question. In addition, Humberto has been growing larger, so impacts will likely be felt on the island regardless of whether or not there is a direct strike.
Invest 94L continues organizing and NHC Advisories could be coming out at any time whether or not a TC has yet formed, as tropical storm/hurricane conditions and storm surge could be coming to the Bahamas and Southeast US within 72 hours. While the ramp for Rapid Intensification does not look as easy for 94L as it appears to be for Humberto, 94L could also become a powerful hurricane. In addition, a PRE (Predecessor Rain Event) is setting up in states along the southeast and portions of the mid-Atlantic. Between the PRE and likely-Imelda-to-be, flooding may become widespread and potentially locally catastrophic. Interests in states such as Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia may want to begin paying very close attention to official forecasts and warnings for 94L/Imelda, and take all prudent precautions.
Model deep dives and speculations in the Forecast Lounge:
Humberto Forecast Lounge
Imelda Forecast Lounge
Overnight, Imelda continued to organize deep convection despite nearby dry air and occasional dry air intrusions, and has become a stout Cat 1 hurricane. Further strengthening is probable and forecast, although not assured. There is a fair chance of significant strengthening now that Imelda is better organized and could fight off shear and dry air for a while as it tracks towards Bermuda, which all guidance has in its sights between 36-48 or so hours from now. The Hurricane Watch for Bermuda could soon become a Hurricane Warning.
Ciel
5AM EDT 28 September 2025 Update
More northerly motion has begun on TD#9 and the models have finally reached a decent consensus, which matches the current forecast track. T#9 is forecast to stay east of Florida (some areas along the east coast may see some squally weather) and make a hard right turn out to sea probably around Daytona and follow Humberto out to sea. Bermuda should watch, but the risk to the southeast ts rapidly decreasing.
11AM EDT 27 September 2025 Update
Tropical Depression Nine has formed.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.
from discussion:
Given the risk of tropical-storm-force winds along the east coast of
Florida, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Palm
Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Flagler/Volusia County
Line. Although it is still too early to specify the details of
potential impacts along the remainder of the southeast U.S. coast,
there remains a risk of heavy rainfall, storm surge, and wind
impacts.
10AM EDT 27 September 2025 Update
Humberto is now a powerful category 4 hurricane and is forecast to become a 5, the cone takes it north of Bermuda, but those there should monitor it closely.
For PTC9 it may develop later today, and the official forecast stall sit offshore of South Carolina. Tropical Storm Warnings are up for most of the Bahamas this weekend as it will pass through there. Dryer air in the Gulf will likely keep most of the convection and rain away from Florida as it passes by, as the storm doesn't have much on the west side, most areas in Florida won't see any rain from it. Beyond the Bahamas it's currently expected to stall offshore, but possibly close enough to South Carolina for some impacts there, and then head generally out to sea. There's is still a high degree of uncertainty, but that is currently the most likely. Everyone along the southeast and Bermuda should monitor this system, as things could change, especially if the system forms north of forecast or moves faster than forecast since it has not developed yet.
6:40PM EDT 26 September 2025 Update
Advisory packages are now out on NINE (Potential Tropical Cyclone formerly tracked as Invest 94L)
Quote:
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the central Bahamas and a Tropical Storm Watch for portions of thenorthwestern Bahamas.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island.
Ciel
Original Update
With echos of 2024, after a confounding long duration pause during the "peak" of the season that lulled many into complacency, the Atlantic basin is off to the races as we close out the month of September.
Hurricane Humberto is on the fast track to become a Major, our third of the year, and could accomplish this as soon as this afternoon. The updated NHC track has Bermuda in the Cone as well as potentially the Right Front Quadrant, where more often than not, the strongest weather occurs (wind, rain, flooding, surge, waterspouts, etc). There is a reasonable chance that Humberto reaches mid/high-end Saffir-Simpson Cat 4, and in fact, Cat 5 is not at all out of the question. In addition, Humberto has been growing larger, so impacts will likely be felt on the island regardless of whether or not there is a direct strike.
Invest 94L continues organizing and NHC Advisories could be coming out at any time whether or not a TC has yet formed, as tropical storm/hurricane conditions and storm surge could be coming to the Bahamas and Southeast US within 72 hours. While the ramp for Rapid Intensification does not look as easy for 94L as it appears to be for Humberto, 94L could also become a powerful hurricane. In addition, a PRE (Predecessor Rain Event) is setting up in states along the southeast and portions of the mid-Atlantic. Between the PRE and likely-Imelda-to-be, flooding may become widespread and potentially locally catastrophic. Interests in states such as Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia may want to begin paying very close attention to official forecasts and warnings for 94L/Imelda, and take all prudent precautions.
Model deep dives and speculations in the Forecast Lounge:
Humberto Forecast Lounge
Imelda Forecast Lounge
Humberto Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Humberto
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for Humberto
CyclonicWx Page for Humberto
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Humberto
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Humberto (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Humberto
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Humberto
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/ More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Humberto -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Imelda Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Imelda
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for Imelda
CyclonicWx Page for Imelda
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Imelda
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Imelda (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Imelda
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Imelda
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/ More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Imelda -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Bermuda Newspapers/Media/Info:
18AM EDT 26 September 2025 Update
Humberto is now a hurricane this morning and Bermuda is in the cone, however it is likely to stay west of Bermuda, although those there should keep an eye on it.
Invest 94L still has a 80/90% chance to develop, high level steering recon is out en force today, but the first low level standard one happens this afternoon. Advisories may start at any time today on this system. There still is quite a bit of uncertainty in regards to the track and intensity of 94L going forward because of how close Humberto is, but those along the southeast, particularly in South Carolina and North Carolina need to pay close attention.
12:30PM EDT 25 September 2025 Update
It is increasingly likely that NHC Advisories will begin on what should ultimately become Imelda, whether or not a TC has yet formed. This is because models are now strongly advertising development with impacts on land (Bahamas, specifically) within the next 72 hours. In fact, tropical storm conditions could arrive within just the next 48 hours. Interests in the Bahamas may already want to be making initial preparations for the arrival of tropical cyclone conditions over the weekend that could continue into early next week.
Updated Issuance Criteria for Potential Tropical Cyclone Advisory
Ciel
8:00AM EDT 25 September 2025 Update
Invest 93L became Tropical Storm Humberto yesterday and is now officially forecast to become a Major by Monday. Interests in Bermuda may want to watch it closely, as while presently outside of the cone, NHC track error margins this far out can be significant.
Invest 94L now has NHC 90% chances of developing this week and 70% within just the next 48 hours. Models strongly suggest that the US could be in play. This disturbance bears very close watching for everyone from the Bahamas up through Florida and the entire southeast. Advisories could be coming soon even if a depression has not yet formed. Recon is aggressively flying and sampling the environment in and around 94L, and this invaluable data will help improve the forecasts going forward.
Way out in the northeastern subtropical Atlantic, a wind max associated with Hurricane Gabrielle could really do a number on the Azores overnight tonight into Friday, and interests there should be rushing preparations to completion for a very strong Cat 1 hurricane that could come in causing more damage than that of a typical Cat 1.
The concerns about a potentially active back half of the season are verifying.
Ciel
9:30PM EDT 23 September 2025 Update
Conditions for development of both Invests 93L and 94L continue improving, and given their close proximity to land and the updated 2025 NHC policy allowing advisories to be issued on Potential Tropical Cyclones, "PTCs," up to 72 hours before the anticipated arrival of storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds on land whether or not a bona fide TC has yet formed, official NHC advisories, possibly even watches and/or warnings, could be coming within the next 24 hours, even as quickly as by tomorrow morning.
Forecasting the tracks and intensities of both Invest 93L and 94L is very challenging, even for the best computer models and most seasoned hurricane experts. More competing and interacting influences than normal, not the least of which could be their proximity to one another, will likely result in any initial forecasts and advisories being of lower confidence than usual.
More than a half dozen recon flights have already been scheduled for 94L, which is the disturbance closest to land. Flights will almost certainly get added soon for 93L, as well.
Ciel
12:00PM EDT 23 September 2025 Update
A Hurricane Watch is now in place for all of the Azores in the northeastern Subtropical Atlantic with Gabrielle. Strong Cat 1/2 hurricane conditions are increasingly likely across the islands late Thursday into early Friday. Interests in the Azores islands should begin taking hurricane preparations as conditions are forecast to deteriorate rapidly within the next 48 hours.
Soon after passing through the Azores, strong post-tropical/hybrid storm conditions are increasingly possible in Spain and Portugal over the coming weekend into Monday with damaging winds and heavy surf.
Much closer to home, model runs continue heating up on newly Invest-tagged 93L and 94L, with a few notable exceptions. Conditions for development in the Atlantic basin are orders of magnitude improved over just a few weeks ago and it would not be surprising to see both get named. The next names on the list in the Atlantic this year are Humberto and Imelda.
Deeper model dives and speculation on all three of these can be found in the Forecast Lounge Forum:
Invest 93L Forecast Lounge
Invest 94L Forecast Lounge
Hurricane Gabrielle Forecast Lounge
Ciel
1:00PM EDT 22 September 2025 Update
Gabrielle became our second Major of the year while comfortably southeast of Bermuda.
Recon missions are presently sampling the very well-developed hurricane and finding that an eyewall replacement cycle could be starting, but for now, weakening has not commenced. Once the ERC has completed, it is possible that the hurricane's windfield is larger, with its upper-bound on the Saffir-Simpson scale a bit restricted as a trade-off. Given the potential for a larger Gabrielle, interests in the Azores may want to begin paying more attention, as hurricane conditions there could occur in less than 72 hours.
Elsewhere, three other areas of interest are on our radar. More on these to come.
Ciel
10:00AM EDT 17 September 2025 Update
Invest 92L became designated TD 7 early this morning. SEVEN is a very sloppy depression, and there may even be an argument that it remains more of a trof than one would like to see in a designated TC.
Initial runs on 92L pegged the disturbance around 13N, with NHC initial positioning of SEVEN at 13.7N. The system tracked as SEVEN now appears to be closer to 19N, based on conventional satellite imagery. Models and forecasts of SEVEN should be taken with a large helping of salt until there is more clarity. "TD 7" could have made a jump into the northern portion of the trof axis.
More on this in the Gabrielle Lounge
Ciel
Original Update
After a peak-season hibernation the likes of which have not been seen since 1939, the Atlantic basin is waking back up.
Basin-wide conditions for development are improving this week. A positive pulse from the MJO along with a climatologically consistent trend towards greater instability overall as we head into fall will conspire to enhance thunderstorm activity. Higher pressure in the subtropics appears set to weaken and/or shove away some of the TUTTs that have imparted high levels of shear and dry air over the past month. Meanwhile, the waves keep rolling off of Africa.
One of the waves to recently exit Africa is now on the cusp of becoming our next TD. This disturbance, Invest 92L, has potential to become a long-track Cape Verde-type storm, provided the basin does perform this week as forecast. Several models give 92L decent odds to become a powerful hurricane. Fortunately, very few models take it towards land, but at a minimum, Bermuda should watch.
Behind 92L another wave appears to have a good shot at development. This one is not yet Invest tagged.
Closer to home, a hybrid coastal storm off the coast of NC/VA remains too attached to its parent fronts and is under too much shear to have much more than maybe a 2% chance at a name, but those right along the coasts in this region probably agree that it "feels" like something with a name. This is expected to weaken today and track out to sea.
Humberto is now a hurricane this morning and Bermuda is in the cone, however it is likely to stay west of Bermuda, although those there should keep an eye on it.
Invest 94L still has a 80/90% chance to develop, high level steering recon is out en force today, but the first low level standard one happens this afternoon. Advisories may start at any time today on this system. There still is quite a bit of uncertainty in regards to the track and intensity of 94L going forward because of how close Humberto is, but those along the southeast, particularly in South Carolina and North Carolina need to pay close attention.
12:30PM EDT 25 September 2025 Update
It is increasingly likely that NHC Advisories will begin on what should ultimately become Imelda, whether or not a TC has yet formed. This is because models are now strongly advertising development with impacts on land (Bahamas, specifically) within the next 72 hours. In fact, tropical storm conditions could arrive within just the next 48 hours. Interests in the Bahamas may already want to be making initial preparations for the arrival of tropical cyclone conditions over the weekend that could continue into early next week.
Updated Issuance Criteria for Potential Tropical Cyclone Advisory
Quote:
The National Hurricane Center (NHC), the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), and the National Weather Service (NWS) have updated the issuance criteria for tropical cyclone advisory products for Potential Tropical Cyclones. A Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) is a disturbance that is not yet a tropical cyclone but poses the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas. With the change, the NHC and CPHC will have the ability to issue tropical cyclone advisory products up to 72 hours before the anticipated arrival of storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds on land regardless of the immediate need for land-based tropical storm, hurricane, or storm surge watches or warnings. Previously, NHC and CPHC could only begin issuing advisory products for PTCs that required land-based watches (issued 48 hours in advance of conditions beginning) or warnings (issued 36 hours in advance of conditions beginning). This change gives NHC and CPHC the option to issue these advisory products at longer lead times when confidence is high that there is a significant risk of wind and storm surge impacts to land areas. Tropical cyclone advisory products for PTCs include all storm-specific text and graphical products routinely issued by NHC and CPHC each advisory cycle (i.e., 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC)), such as the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory (TCP) and the Cone Graphic.
Ciel
8:00AM EDT 25 September 2025 Update
Invest 93L became Tropical Storm Humberto yesterday and is now officially forecast to become a Major by Monday. Interests in Bermuda may want to watch it closely, as while presently outside of the cone, NHC track error margins this far out can be significant.
Invest 94L now has NHC 90% chances of developing this week and 70% within just the next 48 hours. Models strongly suggest that the US could be in play. This disturbance bears very close watching for everyone from the Bahamas up through Florida and the entire southeast. Advisories could be coming soon even if a depression has not yet formed. Recon is aggressively flying and sampling the environment in and around 94L, and this invaluable data will help improve the forecasts going forward.
Way out in the northeastern subtropical Atlantic, a wind max associated with Hurricane Gabrielle could really do a number on the Azores overnight tonight into Friday, and interests there should be rushing preparations to completion for a very strong Cat 1 hurricane that could come in causing more damage than that of a typical Cat 1.
The concerns about a potentially active back half of the season are verifying.
Ciel
9:30PM EDT 23 September 2025 Update
Conditions for development of both Invests 93L and 94L continue improving, and given their close proximity to land and the updated 2025 NHC policy allowing advisories to be issued on Potential Tropical Cyclones, "PTCs," up to 72 hours before the anticipated arrival of storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds on land whether or not a bona fide TC has yet formed, official NHC advisories, possibly even watches and/or warnings, could be coming within the next 24 hours, even as quickly as by tomorrow morning.
Forecasting the tracks and intensities of both Invest 93L and 94L is very challenging, even for the best computer models and most seasoned hurricane experts. More competing and interacting influences than normal, not the least of which could be their proximity to one another, will likely result in any initial forecasts and advisories being of lower confidence than usual.
More than a half dozen recon flights have already been scheduled for 94L, which is the disturbance closest to land. Flights will almost certainly get added soon for 93L, as well.
Ciel
12:00PM EDT 23 September 2025 Update
A Hurricane Watch is now in place for all of the Azores in the northeastern Subtropical Atlantic with Gabrielle. Strong Cat 1/2 hurricane conditions are increasingly likely across the islands late Thursday into early Friday. Interests in the Azores islands should begin taking hurricane preparations as conditions are forecast to deteriorate rapidly within the next 48 hours.
Soon after passing through the Azores, strong post-tropical/hybrid storm conditions are increasingly possible in Spain and Portugal over the coming weekend into Monday with damaging winds and heavy surf.
Much closer to home, model runs continue heating up on newly Invest-tagged 93L and 94L, with a few notable exceptions. Conditions for development in the Atlantic basin are orders of magnitude improved over just a few weeks ago and it would not be surprising to see both get named. The next names on the list in the Atlantic this year are Humberto and Imelda.
Deeper model dives and speculation on all three of these can be found in the Forecast Lounge Forum:
Invest 93L Forecast Lounge
Invest 94L Forecast Lounge
Hurricane Gabrielle Forecast Lounge
Quote:
The Azores Meteorological Service has issued a Hurricane Watch for all the islands of the Azores.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for ... All of the Azores
Ciel
1:00PM EDT 22 September 2025 Update
Gabrielle became our second Major of the year while comfortably southeast of Bermuda.
Recon missions are presently sampling the very well-developed hurricane and finding that an eyewall replacement cycle could be starting, but for now, weakening has not commenced. Once the ERC has completed, it is possible that the hurricane's windfield is larger, with its upper-bound on the Saffir-Simpson scale a bit restricted as a trade-off. Given the potential for a larger Gabrielle, interests in the Azores may want to begin paying more attention, as hurricane conditions there could occur in less than 72 hours.
Elsewhere, three other areas of interest are on our radar. More on these to come.
Ciel
10:00AM EDT 17 September 2025 Update
Invest 92L became designated TD 7 early this morning. SEVEN is a very sloppy depression, and there may even be an argument that it remains more of a trof than one would like to see in a designated TC.
Initial runs on 92L pegged the disturbance around 13N, with NHC initial positioning of SEVEN at 13.7N. The system tracked as SEVEN now appears to be closer to 19N, based on conventional satellite imagery. Models and forecasts of SEVEN should be taken with a large helping of salt until there is more clarity. "TD 7" could have made a jump into the northern portion of the trof axis.
More on this in the Gabrielle Lounge
Ciel
Original Update
After a peak-season hibernation the likes of which have not been seen since 1939, the Atlantic basin is waking back up.
Basin-wide conditions for development are improving this week. A positive pulse from the MJO along with a climatologically consistent trend towards greater instability overall as we head into fall will conspire to enhance thunderstorm activity. Higher pressure in the subtropics appears set to weaken and/or shove away some of the TUTTs that have imparted high levels of shear and dry air over the past month. Meanwhile, the waves keep rolling off of Africa.
One of the waves to recently exit Africa is now on the cusp of becoming our next TD. This disturbance, Invest 92L, has potential to become a long-track Cape Verde-type storm, provided the basin does perform this week as forecast. Several models give 92L decent odds to become a powerful hurricane. Fortunately, very few models take it towards land, but at a minimum, Bermuda should watch.
Behind 92L another wave appears to have a good shot at development. This one is not yet Invest tagged.
Closer to home, a hybrid coastal storm off the coast of NC/VA remains too attached to its parent fronts and is under too much shear to have much more than maybe a 2% chance at a name, but those right along the coasts in this region probably agree that it "feels" like something with a name. This is expected to weaken today and track out to sea.
Gabrielle Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Gabrielle
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for Gabrielle
CyclonicWx Page for Gabrielle
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Gabrielle
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Gabrielle (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Gabrielle
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Gabrielle
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/ More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Gabrielle -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Humberto Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Humberto
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for Humberto
CyclonicWx Page for Humberto
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Humberto
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Humberto (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Humberto
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Humberto
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/ More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Humberto -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Invest 94L Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 94L
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for 94L
CyclonicWx Page for 94L
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/ More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Coastal South Carolina Media:
94.3 WSC Charleston News Radio
Power Outage Map: South Carolina Power Outage Map
Bermuda Newspapers/Media/Info:
The Lull and the TUTT
Posted: 05:18 AM 29 August 2025 | 4 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 11:33 AM 31-Aug EDT
1:30PM EDT 4 September 2025 Update
Now in peak season and we have increasing threats in both oceans with U.S. states and territories: Pacific (Hawaii) and Atlantic (Caribbean, Gulf and up through the eastern seaboard).
Starting off in the Pacific, models continue converging on a track for Major Hurricane Kiko that takes it directly over, or at a minimum, impactfully close to the Hawaiian islands, including the Big Island. We have an official Forecast Lounge up on Kiko as it is threatening Hawaii:
Hurricane Kiko Forecast Lounge (Hawaii)
In the Tropical Atlantic, the wave we have been tracking for a few days has just been Invest tagged this morning, 91L. The most recent run of the GFS has it now joining both the ECMWF ("EURO") and Google DeepMind in a far more southerly track, which would directly threaten Caribbean islands and likely take the system into the Caribbean itself, if verified. More on this in the 91L Forecast Lounge:
91L Lounge (E ATL Wave)
Ciel
12:00PM EDT 3 September 2025 Update
Quick update to mention a feature in the East Pac that is now of concern for mainland southwestern US, mostly in the form of potentially flooding rains and possibly some isolated severe thunderstorms.
Lorena has become a hurricane south of Baja California. Models that have done the best handling this system are more likely to verify going forward and there is now near certain impactful Lorena-caused weather to affect several portions of the southwestern United States, in addition to landfalling impacts across Baja California and possibly northwestern mainland Mexico. There is an outside chance that the cyclone remains intact across mainland northwestern Mexico into southern Arizona, but for now that is more of an outlier. TCs coming from this direction usually get hung up over or just east of the Gulf of California. However, there is a good chance that Lorena's mid-level circulation will continue across and into the southwestern United States, potentially resulting in enhanced severe thunderstorm risks and a swath of wind damage across higher terrains directly related to its MLC.
We have a de facto "Lounge" up on this approaching hurricane in the Other Basins forum: Hurricane Lorena (Potential Southwest US Impacts)
Ciel
Original Update
Today marks the 20th anniversary of the Mississippi/Louisiana landfall of hurricane Katrina. The largest impact hurricane in modern times, even with a few storms since then that have come close. Thankfully events like these still remain very rare, but still could happen. Katrina was most notable for the storm surge, as it was weakening on approach, but massive, and made landfall close to populated areas and near New Orleans. The surge itself was mostly felt east of there, with coastal Mississippi seeing the worst of it, and surge extending well east into the Florida panhandle. Media coverage then was slow to react as it's a case where internet trackers were ahead of the media by hours. And that water, not wind, was the big story for Katrina.
Mainly because the information blackout was so stark, and those monitoring places before the blackout. The impact to people in all those areas still remains to this day. And this was the year following the 4 Florida hurricane year of 2004. It was the 10th year for this site, and likely the busiest of all of them, before or since.
Today there's a very large lull in activity in the Atlantic, no storms, and one area of interest in the east Atlantic, not invest tagged, that could develop, but faces bad conditions ahead ft it,. most notably a Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough, also known as a TUTT, which is a massive deterrent to tropical development that currently exists in the Central Atlantic just east of the Caribbean. Anything tropical going through there would get ripped to pieces. And this area, if it develops, is likely to hit that. (or go north and east of it and be no threat to land). Although this likely will only last a week or two, it's enough to dampen the first few weeks of September. Areas forming from fronts closer to shore are more likely though that time. Things do change mid to late September though. But it's unusual to see effectively no activity in early September in the Atlantic Although last year was similar, it wasn't until late in the month when Helene showed up.
We'll continue to monitor in case any surprises show up. But for now, enjoy the labor day weekend.
Now in peak season and we have increasing threats in both oceans with U.S. states and territories: Pacific (Hawaii) and Atlantic (Caribbean, Gulf and up through the eastern seaboard).
Starting off in the Pacific, models continue converging on a track for Major Hurricane Kiko that takes it directly over, or at a minimum, impactfully close to the Hawaiian islands, including the Big Island. We have an official Forecast Lounge up on Kiko as it is threatening Hawaii:
Hurricane Kiko Forecast Lounge (Hawaii)
In the Tropical Atlantic, the wave we have been tracking for a few days has just been Invest tagged this morning, 91L. The most recent run of the GFS has it now joining both the ECMWF ("EURO") and Google DeepMind in a far more southerly track, which would directly threaten Caribbean islands and likely take the system into the Caribbean itself, if verified. More on this in the 91L Forecast Lounge:
91L Lounge (E ATL Wave)
Ciel
12:00PM EDT 3 September 2025 Update
Quick update to mention a feature in the East Pac that is now of concern for mainland southwestern US, mostly in the form of potentially flooding rains and possibly some isolated severe thunderstorms.
Lorena has become a hurricane south of Baja California. Models that have done the best handling this system are more likely to verify going forward and there is now near certain impactful Lorena-caused weather to affect several portions of the southwestern United States, in addition to landfalling impacts across Baja California and possibly northwestern mainland Mexico. There is an outside chance that the cyclone remains intact across mainland northwestern Mexico into southern Arizona, but for now that is more of an outlier. TCs coming from this direction usually get hung up over or just east of the Gulf of California. However, there is a good chance that Lorena's mid-level circulation will continue across and into the southwestern United States, potentially resulting in enhanced severe thunderstorm risks and a swath of wind damage across higher terrains directly related to its MLC.
We have a de facto "Lounge" up on this approaching hurricane in the Other Basins forum: Hurricane Lorena (Potential Southwest US Impacts)
Ciel
Original Update
Today marks the 20th anniversary of the Mississippi/Louisiana landfall of hurricane Katrina. The largest impact hurricane in modern times, even with a few storms since then that have come close. Thankfully events like these still remain very rare, but still could happen. Katrina was most notable for the storm surge, as it was weakening on approach, but massive, and made landfall close to populated areas and near New Orleans. The surge itself was mostly felt east of there, with coastal Mississippi seeing the worst of it, and surge extending well east into the Florida panhandle. Media coverage then was slow to react as it's a case where internet trackers were ahead of the media by hours. And that water, not wind, was the big story for Katrina.
Mainly because the information blackout was so stark, and those monitoring places before the blackout. The impact to people in all those areas still remains to this day. And this was the year following the 4 Florida hurricane year of 2004. It was the 10th year for this site, and likely the busiest of all of them, before or since.
Today there's a very large lull in activity in the Atlantic, no storms, and one area of interest in the east Atlantic, not invest tagged, that could develop, but faces bad conditions ahead ft it,. most notably a Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough, also known as a TUTT, which is a massive deterrent to tropical development that currently exists in the Central Atlantic just east of the Caribbean. Anything tropical going through there would get ripped to pieces. And this area, if it develops, is likely to hit that. (or go north and east of it and be no threat to land). Although this likely will only last a week or two, it's enough to dampen the first few weeks of September. Areas forming from fronts closer to shore are more likely though that time. Things do change mid to late September though. But it's unusual to see effectively no activity in early September in the Atlantic Although last year was similar, it wasn't until late in the month when Helene showed up.
We'll continue to monitor in case any surprises show up. But for now, enjoy the labor day weekend.
Invest 92L Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 92
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for 92
CyclonicWx Page for 92
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 92
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 92 (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 92
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/ More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 92 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Bermuda Newspapers/Media/Info:
Basin Enters Peak
Posted: 11:01 PM 21 August 2025 | 3 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 04:25 PM 24-Aug EDT
3:00PM EDT 23 August 2025 Update
Advisories are "almost 100%" coming at any time today for Invest 90L as it tracks north and closer to the island of Bermuda. For now, a direct hit remains a lower risk than it seemed this time yesterday.
Perhaps of greater concern, models have started to wake up on Invest 99L, with a few operational runs and several ensembles now developing it in the Caribbean. This would be a landlocked tropical cyclone in the western Atlantic should this occur.
NHC has just tasked several missions to investigate 99L later this weekend as it approaches and passes through the Windwards. They may find it a developing tropical cyclone by then, and it is not inconceivable that PTC Advisories could go out should current trends continue, despite the present very low NHC 20% odds. Models have consistently underbid this system. Tenacious disturbances are always worthy of paying extra attention to.
Finally, and already close to home, we are monitoring the potential for a hybrid system to develop off the southeast coast late this weekend into early next week.
Ciel
8:00AM EDT 23 August 2025 Update
Watches could be going up for Bermuda later today with Invest 90L, now very likely to become our next named storm. Modeling favors a track east of the island, but impacts would be in the cards regardless of a direct hit or not. The next name on the list this year is Fernand.
We are also still monitoring Invest 99L approaching the eastern Caribbean. This disturbance has already been what many would allow to be considered a bona fide tropical storm, but is presently dealing with some moderate shear. As it nears the Windwards later this weekend, shear could relax, allowing it another chance to organize, and interests in and near the eastern Caribbean may want to stay alert for any changes in its strength. Locally heavy rain and gusty conditions seem to be on tap in spots at a minimum as it moves through the Windwards Sunday and Monday.
Ciel
Original Update
Behind (formerly Cat 5) Hurricane Erin, the Atlantic basin is still primed for an active season, overall. While social mediarologists love to hype the extremes ("NO STORMS THIS YEAR!") ("WORST HURRICANE EVER THIS THIS!") for clicks, Flhurricane has and will always continue to play it straight.
2025 is still more favored than not to be above-average in terms of Names, Hurricanes, Majors and ACE. While not any guarantee, this simply means that the dice are arguably a little weighted to the bigger digits.
Near-term and closer to home:
Invest 99L probably already qualifies as a Tropical Storm. Awaiting the official NHC decision desk, but suffice it to say, we need to watch this one closer either way, as it starts at a much lower latitude than many others this season.
Invest 90L has been getting more press as the better candidate, but that only has been the case if 99L didn't pull it off soon enough. Both are more likely than not to get named. 99L could directly threaten the Caribbean. 90L could make a direct strike on Bermuda, potentially even as a Major. Time to take some initial preps if in these regions.
Deep-Dive Model Discussion Lounges
99L Forecast Lounge (Central Tropical Atlantic)
90L Forecast Lounge (Rounding Leewards)
Hurricane Erin Forecast Lounge
Advisories are "almost 100%" coming at any time today for Invest 90L as it tracks north and closer to the island of Bermuda. For now, a direct hit remains a lower risk than it seemed this time yesterday.
Perhaps of greater concern, models have started to wake up on Invest 99L, with a few operational runs and several ensembles now developing it in the Caribbean. This would be a landlocked tropical cyclone in the western Atlantic should this occur.
NHC has just tasked several missions to investigate 99L later this weekend as it approaches and passes through the Windwards. They may find it a developing tropical cyclone by then, and it is not inconceivable that PTC Advisories could go out should current trends continue, despite the present very low NHC 20% odds. Models have consistently underbid this system. Tenacious disturbances are always worthy of paying extra attention to.
Finally, and already close to home, we are monitoring the potential for a hybrid system to develop off the southeast coast late this weekend into early next week.
Ciel
8:00AM EDT 23 August 2025 Update
Watches could be going up for Bermuda later today with Invest 90L, now very likely to become our next named storm. Modeling favors a track east of the island, but impacts would be in the cards regardless of a direct hit or not. The next name on the list this year is Fernand.
We are also still monitoring Invest 99L approaching the eastern Caribbean. This disturbance has already been what many would allow to be considered a bona fide tropical storm, but is presently dealing with some moderate shear. As it nears the Windwards later this weekend, shear could relax, allowing it another chance to organize, and interests in and near the eastern Caribbean may want to stay alert for any changes in its strength. Locally heavy rain and gusty conditions seem to be on tap in spots at a minimum as it moves through the Windwards Sunday and Monday.
Ciel
Original Update
Behind (formerly Cat 5) Hurricane Erin, the Atlantic basin is still primed for an active season, overall. While social mediarologists love to hype the extremes ("NO STORMS THIS YEAR!") ("WORST HURRICANE EVER THIS THIS!") for clicks, Flhurricane has and will always continue to play it straight.
2025 is still more favored than not to be above-average in terms of Names, Hurricanes, Majors and ACE. While not any guarantee, this simply means that the dice are arguably a little weighted to the bigger digits.
Near-term and closer to home:
Invest 99L probably already qualifies as a Tropical Storm. Awaiting the official NHC decision desk, but suffice it to say, we need to watch this one closer either way, as it starts at a much lower latitude than many others this season.
Invest 90L has been getting more press as the better candidate, but that only has been the case if 99L didn't pull it off soon enough. Both are more likely than not to get named. 99L could directly threaten the Caribbean. 90L could make a direct strike on Bermuda, potentially even as a Major. Time to take some initial preps if in these regions.
Deep-Dive Model Discussion Lounges
99L Forecast Lounge (Central Tropical Atlantic)
90L Forecast Lounge (Rounding Leewards)
Hurricane Erin Forecast Lounge
Erin Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Erin
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for Erin
CyclonicWx Page for Erin
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Erin
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Erin (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Erin
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Erin
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/ More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Erin -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Fernand Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Fernand
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for Fernand
CyclonicWx Page for Fernand
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Fernand
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Fernand (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Fernand
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Fernand
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/ More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Fernand -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Invest 99L Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 99
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for 99
CyclonicWx Page for 99
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99 (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/ More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Eastern NC/OBX/Hampton Roads Media:
North Carolina Power Outage Map
North Carolina Flood Inundation and Mapping Network
WWAY TV 3 Wilmington, NC (ABC)
WECT TV 6 Wilmington, NC (NBC)
WILM TV 10 Wilmington, NC (CBS)
WITN 7 - Eastern North Carolina TV (NBC)
WCTI 12 - Eastern North Carolina (ABC)
WNCT TV 9 - Eastern North Carolina (CBS)
Wavy 10 (NBC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA TV
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Full Caribbean Radar Composite
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
Bermuda Newspapers/Media/Info:
Erin begins to leave the stage as others start to step in
Posted: 11:25 AM 09 August 2025 | 21 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 01:25 PM 21-Aug EDT
11:45AM EDT 21 August 2025 Update
Erin continues pulling away from land but impacts remain as the cyclone is very large. Erin should continue to track ENE and is forecast to undergo post-tropical transition in the next 2-3 days or so.
Erin Key Messages from today's 11AM NHC Update
There are now also three other systems in the Atlantic being monitored by NHC.
First, and closest to land, newly Invest-tagged 90L is approaching the northern Leewards. This feature may very well become our second hurricane of the year, and while likely to head out to sea, interests from the northern Caribbean islands to Bermuda may want to watch.
Second, the robust wave behind 90L we have been tracking continues on a WSW trajectory and its window for TC genesis now appears to be a little longer than NHC was thinking early on. As this system is still undeveloped and traveling at low latitude, despite a forecast of less than ideal conditions for further development ahead, those in and along the eastern Caribbean may want to begin paying it more attention.
Third, the area of low pressure we have been tracking since it was in the northeastern Gulf and went on to track offshore of the Carolinas (Lounge: " Stealthy Low in NE Gulf now Offshore of Carolinas"), continued ENE and became a well-defined, small sub-tropical low yesterday, with more development overnight. This feature now sports a Dvorak of T2 and could become a named storm as it goes harmlessly fishing
Ciel
11:00AM EDT 20 August 2025 Update
With the 11AM NHC Update, Erin is just shy of being a Major Hurricane again.
Erin is an especially large and powerful hurricane now markedly improving in structure, with pressures lowering and maximum winds (sustained and gusts) responding in kind. With regard to Erin's structure, one of the best ways to think about it might be as a very large tropical storm with a now redeveloping Major hurricane in the middle, as mentioned by Dr. Greg Postel, or perhaps as a very powerful subtropical hurricane, reminiscent of Ike (2008) in the Gulf but if one also stuck a Major Hurricane its belly. Either analogy works, with the point being that Erin is not ones garden variety hurricane, and as such, while still tracking offshore and out-to-sea, dangerous and potentially life-threatening impacts will be felt far and wide.
Elsewhere, the large and broad trof/wave we have been watching since its exit out of Africa is now approaching the Caribbean. The northern portion is in the most favorable environment for development and models have started warming up to this again, with development more probable than not perhaps as it nears or round the Leewards in a few days/over the weekend, and NHC has tentatively prepared for an initial flight around 19.0N 61.5W to investigate. Some model runs have also taken its robust southern lobe across northernmost South America and pick it back up in the southwestern Caribbean this weekend and/or next week, and is worth monitoring.
Invest 99L in the far eastern Atlantic is NHC 40% odds of development within the next day or two before conditions for further development are expected to turn unfavorable. This system is likely to track at a lower latitude for a while either way, and is also worth monitoring.
Today is August 20, considered the informal "kick-off" to the real heart of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and the basin is certainly acting like it.
Ciel
5:00AM EDT 20 August 2025 Update
Hurricane Erin is forecast to slowly restrengthen today. Tropical Storm Warnings are up along the outer banks all the way to the Virginia border now this morning. Overwash has occurred in parts of the outerbanks already. Some webcamera timelapses available https://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animationlist.php?year=all&tag=Erin+%282025%29
5:00PM EDT 18 August 2025 Update
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico Sound
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina.
6:00PM EDT 17 August 2025 Update
Dare County Emergency Management has issued an evacuation of Hatteras Island in the North Carolina Outer Banks (Zone A). Evacuation begins Tuesday Morning. Erin is a very large hurricane that could negatively impact the delicate area even without a direct landfall.
8:00AM EDT 17 August 2025 Update
Hurricane Erin is down to 125MPH winds, with a large eyewall replacement and expanding in size. After the eyewall replacement is complete it has the chance to regain some strength. It is still a major hurricane. It will get close enough to the Turks and Caicos to cause Tropical Storm force winds, thus a tropical storm warning is up, but it will not get close enough for hurricane force winds. Then the official track takes and up and out between North Carolina and Bermuda. It's possible one or the other also receives some fringe heavy bands and possible tropical storm conditions as it does Thursday, but any direct landfall is unlikely.
5:00PM EDT 16 August 2025 Update
5PM Update from NHC holds Erin at 160 MPH, but this is an estimate. Recon has not been in for many hours and while it may be starting to show initial signs of filling, pinhole eye type scenes are very hard to get an intensity handle on, even with recon flying into them, as it becomes a little more challenging to penetrate and drop sondes in what is not totally unlike a couple mile wide tornado vortex in such situations.
Recon is flying in again soon and we should have a better handle on Erin's real current intensity. Could be up, could be down, could very well still be 160.
Ciel
10:00AM EDT 16 August 2025 Update
Above: Erin's past track and points (kept bending south), most recent recon VDMs (keep bending south), and forecast track line and points (keep getting nudged south but still pointing WNW, for now).
Erin may now be a Category 5 hurricane, having undergone completely unforecast Rapid Intensification (RI) overnight, unforeseen by almost all models. However, one Global kept hinting that RI sooner than later ~ along with a more westward track overall ~ was a possibility (ICON).
It is safe to say that there are now some wrinkles in Erin's forecast. Once every so often a hurricane goes wildly off-script. Erin is already there having become this strong, this fast, and tracking south of forecast for eight hours or so now. Forecasts for Erin's strength and importantly track should be taken with a little less certainty this morning, and interests from the Northern Leeward Islands to the east coast of the United States, perhaps particularly the OBX, may want to begin paying much closer attention.
This is a potentially very dangerous hurricane.
Ciel
8:00PM EDT 15 August 2025 Update
Another area, 10% is mentioned on the outlook offshore of the Carolinas. This is the area that flooded parts of Southwest Florida last weekend and moved through the Gulf, over land and back out to sea. This is ahead of Erin, it has about until Monday to potentially develop. Unlikely, but a few ensembles show it.
Forecast lounge for this feature https://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Number=115724&gonew=1#UNREAD
9:00AM EDT 15 August 2025 Update
Recon has found that Erin has become a hurricane. This should be reflected shortly in the next NHC update.
Ciel
8:30AM EDT 15 August 2025 Update
Quick update to highlight the feature a lot closer to land, Invest 98L. Models have woken up and the latest runs are more suggestive of 65% or so odds of it becoming a TD or low-end (wind-wise) TS prior to or just upon pushing ashore somewhere either side of the MX/TX coastal border region later today. More than anything, this is a potential flood threat in areas already hammered by several rounds of flooding last month.
The second recon mission into 98L is en route to provide forecasters and models with critical data not otherwise available.
Ciel
8:45PM EDT 14 August 2025 Update
Above: Water Vapor imagery of Erin and Invest 98L at 0035z August 15, 2025 Cr. Weathernerds.org
Erin is on the cusp of being a hurricane tonight. There are a few hints that there could be a center slide or reformation that models have not yet factored in, and this is something to watch overnight into tomorrow morning as there could thus be an adjustment in forecast track on the way. Regardless, at a minimum, very dangerous and potentially life-threatening rip currents will almost be a certainty along a vast portion of the east coast of the United States, and potentially even more significant impacts down the road from there on the east coast and/or Bermuda.
Invest 98L is now up to NHC 50% odds of becoming a Tropical Cyclone. This is in the face of modeling that largely remains unrealistically cool on its potential. Potential Tropical Cyclone Watches and/or Warnings could be put up as soon as later tonight or Friday morning for portions of the Gulf coast from northeastern Mexico to along coastal south Texas. Realistically, this incipient cyclone will likely be coming in as a pretty serious inland flood threat, and interests from deep south Texas into the Texas Hill Country, including locations recently affected by devastating floods may want to start paying close attention to this developing situation and stay tuned to reliable local sources of accurate information.
Ciel
9AM EDT 14 August 2025 Update
Tropical Storm Erin is a 50mph Tropical Storm this morning, still heading generally west, and not expected to reach hurricane strength until the weekend. There's also an area in the Bay of Campeche that has a 20% chance to develop. Erin's forecast to stay north of the Northeastern Caribbean Islands, but they could feel a few fringe outer effects Beyond that it's still a bit tricky, but it's generally headed toward the gap between North Carolina and Bermuda right now. However it's still not comfortably certain yet, recon aircraft are going to be able to head out starting late tonight to help get a better situation and data for the hurricane center.
Modeling is still a bit too uncertain without the recon. Although it is looking better for Bermuda, most models have shifted west of it. However, things like the 6z GFS Ensembles this morning, make it clear how much recon is very much needed.
7PM EDT 13 August 2025 Update
We have just opened up a Forecast Lounge on newly Invest-tagged 98L in the Bay of Campeche. While models suggest its chances are extremely low, this system is landlocked and in a very favorable environment for development. Regardless of development, this system could have the potential to become a serious rain/flood-marker, which is always a very real risk with the "weak" ones. 98L Forecast Lounge
Ciel
5PM EDT 13 August 2025 Update
Tropical Storm Erin has strengthened today to a 50mph Tropical storm.
Erin is unlikely to directly impact the Caribbean islands, however Bermuda and parts of the US east coast could still be affected indirectly (surf, rip currents). It's important to monitor it. Especially in Bermuda and Eastern North Carolina.
Recon aircraft is en route to the area and will go to Erin tomorrow evening. The air force recon planes will be based out of St. Croix, and the NOAA ones out of Barbados.
8AM EDT 12 August 2025 Update
Erin continues to move west quickly around 22mph. Some easterly shear influence should keep it from strengthening much, if at all, for the day or so. Beyond that conditions start to improve, and by the time it gets over to the west conditions greatly improve, especially west of 60 west, where it has a chance to become very intense. The official forecast takes it north of the Caribbean, but folks in the islands will want to watch in the unlikely case anything changes. Low confidence beyond that, Bermuda has the largest chance to see impacts from the system, but other areas including the Bahamas and US coast, although fairly unlikely, cannot be ruled out.
I do want to reiterate how fast and weak the system are now could nudge the forecast track south enough to get closer to (not necessarily) over the Caribbean islands. So do not let your guard down there. The shear may be enough to weaken Erin a bit before it has a chance to strengthen again.
10:15AM EDT 11 August 2025 Update
Tropical Storm Erin has formed in the East Atlantic, it's something to watch closely, but not too concerning at the moment.
Most likely the energy remains offshore of the US, Bermuda will likely need to watch this very closely as it's most likely they will at least see some periphery impacts.
There's still about a 5% chance it could come closer to the Continental United States. The Caribbean Islands are unlikely, the Bahamas (particularly south and east) may need to watch. The Canadian Maritimes will also want to keep tabs on Erin.
It could get close however, close to the outer banks or new England are most likely if it does, but landfall is unlikely. So it's important to watch for trends over the next week or two.
8:15PM EDT 10 August 2025 Update
There have been worse looking tropical lows called TDs than Invest 97L at this time, and it is likely that the system gets the official designation within the next 12 hours or so. Presently, very tropical depression-like conditions are tracking over the Cabo Verde Islands in the far eastern Atlantic.
Over the next 24-48 hours, our incipient Tropical Cyclone (97L) bumps into a region of less unstable and outright subsident air while it tracks over slightly cooler waters. This may stall any further intensification until it reaches the warmer SSTs further west where it has a better chance to become a formidable Cape Verde type hurricane if all the stars remain aligned.
Closer to home, a curious area of low pressure, primarily aloft but also with a surface reflection, exists within a larger trof region in the eastern Gulf. While not yet Invest tagged, there are some ensembles that want to develop it into a depression before it pushes inland over north Florida early in the coming week, and we'll be watching. Lots and lots of rain, either way.
Ciel
Original Update
Invest 97L is a system in the far east Atlantic that just exited Africa, it's poised to a be a long track system. If it gets a name it'll be Erin. The 1995 version of Erin was the first hurricane to be covered by this website.
97L's long term future is uncertain, climatology and ensembles suggest it remains offshore, but odds are only slightly favorable for that outcome, not enough for comfort by any means. So it must be watched by those and the Caribbean and beyond for the trends. If the system becomes a depression it'll get advisories as well. Now that the system is an invest the more specific Hurricane models we begin to be ran on it.
Lots of time to watch where this goes.
More models and speculation can be found in the forecast lounge.
Erin continues pulling away from land but impacts remain as the cyclone is very large. Erin should continue to track ENE and is forecast to undergo post-tropical transition in the next 2-3 days or so.
Erin Key Messages from today's 11AM NHC Update
Quote:
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Erin will continue to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach warning flags.
2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions will continue on the North Carolina Outer Banks today. The storm surge will be accompanied by large waves, leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads impassible.
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected today along the Virginia coast. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along portions of the remainder of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts today through early Friday.
4. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda this afternoon through early Friday. Gusts to gale force are possible along the coast of Nova Scotia on Friday and the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland on Saturday.
There are now also three other systems in the Atlantic being monitored by NHC.
First, and closest to land, newly Invest-tagged 90L is approaching the northern Leewards. This feature may very well become our second hurricane of the year, and while likely to head out to sea, interests from the northern Caribbean islands to Bermuda may want to watch.
Second, the robust wave behind 90L we have been tracking continues on a WSW trajectory and its window for TC genesis now appears to be a little longer than NHC was thinking early on. As this system is still undeveloped and traveling at low latitude, despite a forecast of less than ideal conditions for further development ahead, those in and along the eastern Caribbean may want to begin paying it more attention.
Third, the area of low pressure we have been tracking since it was in the northeastern Gulf and went on to track offshore of the Carolinas (Lounge: " Stealthy Low in NE Gulf now Offshore of Carolinas"), continued ENE and became a well-defined, small sub-tropical low yesterday, with more development overnight. This feature now sports a Dvorak of T2 and could become a named storm as it goes harmlessly fishing
Ciel
11:00AM EDT 20 August 2025 Update
With the 11AM NHC Update, Erin is just shy of being a Major Hurricane again.
Erin is an especially large and powerful hurricane now markedly improving in structure, with pressures lowering and maximum winds (sustained and gusts) responding in kind. With regard to Erin's structure, one of the best ways to think about it might be as a very large tropical storm with a now redeveloping Major hurricane in the middle, as mentioned by Dr. Greg Postel, or perhaps as a very powerful subtropical hurricane, reminiscent of Ike (2008) in the Gulf but if one also stuck a Major Hurricane its belly. Either analogy works, with the point being that Erin is not ones garden variety hurricane, and as such, while still tracking offshore and out-to-sea, dangerous and potentially life-threatening impacts will be felt far and wide.
Elsewhere, the large and broad trof/wave we have been watching since its exit out of Africa is now approaching the Caribbean. The northern portion is in the most favorable environment for development and models have started warming up to this again, with development more probable than not perhaps as it nears or round the Leewards in a few days/over the weekend, and NHC has tentatively prepared for an initial flight around 19.0N 61.5W to investigate. Some model runs have also taken its robust southern lobe across northernmost South America and pick it back up in the southwestern Caribbean this weekend and/or next week, and is worth monitoring.
Invest 99L in the far eastern Atlantic is NHC 40% odds of development within the next day or two before conditions for further development are expected to turn unfavorable. This system is likely to track at a lower latitude for a while either way, and is also worth monitoring.
Today is August 20, considered the informal "kick-off" to the real heart of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and the basin is certainly acting like it.
Ciel
5:00AM EDT 20 August 2025 Update
Hurricane Erin is forecast to slowly restrengthen today. Tropical Storm Warnings are up along the outer banks all the way to the Virginia border now this morning. Overwash has occurred in parts of the outerbanks already. Some webcamera timelapses available https://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animationlist.php?year=all&tag=Erin+%282025%29
5:00PM EDT 18 August 2025 Update
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico Sound
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina.
6:00PM EDT 17 August 2025 Update
Dare County Emergency Management has issued an evacuation of Hatteras Island in the North Carolina Outer Banks (Zone A). Evacuation begins Tuesday Morning. Erin is a very large hurricane that could negatively impact the delicate area even without a direct landfall.
8:00AM EDT 17 August 2025 Update
Hurricane Erin is down to 125MPH winds, with a large eyewall replacement and expanding in size. After the eyewall replacement is complete it has the chance to regain some strength. It is still a major hurricane. It will get close enough to the Turks and Caicos to cause Tropical Storm force winds, thus a tropical storm warning is up, but it will not get close enough for hurricane force winds. Then the official track takes and up and out between North Carolina and Bermuda. It's possible one or the other also receives some fringe heavy bands and possible tropical storm conditions as it does Thursday, but any direct landfall is unlikely.
5:00PM EDT 16 August 2025 Update
5PM Update from NHC holds Erin at 160 MPH, but this is an estimate. Recon has not been in for many hours and while it may be starting to show initial signs of filling, pinhole eye type scenes are very hard to get an intensity handle on, even with recon flying into them, as it becomes a little more challenging to penetrate and drop sondes in what is not totally unlike a couple mile wide tornado vortex in such situations.
Recon is flying in again soon and we should have a better handle on Erin's real current intensity. Could be up, could be down, could very well still be 160.
Ciel
10:00AM EDT 16 August 2025 Update
Above: Erin's past track and points (kept bending south), most recent recon VDMs (keep bending south), and forecast track line and points (keep getting nudged south but still pointing WNW, for now).
Erin may now be a Category 5 hurricane, having undergone completely unforecast Rapid Intensification (RI) overnight, unforeseen by almost all models. However, one Global kept hinting that RI sooner than later ~ along with a more westward track overall ~ was a possibility (ICON).
It is safe to say that there are now some wrinkles in Erin's forecast. Once every so often a hurricane goes wildly off-script. Erin is already there having become this strong, this fast, and tracking south of forecast for eight hours or so now. Forecasts for Erin's strength and importantly track should be taken with a little less certainty this morning, and interests from the Northern Leeward Islands to the east coast of the United States, perhaps particularly the OBX, may want to begin paying much closer attention.
This is a potentially very dangerous hurricane.
Ciel
8:00PM EDT 15 August 2025 Update
Another area, 10% is mentioned on the outlook offshore of the Carolinas. This is the area that flooded parts of Southwest Florida last weekend and moved through the Gulf, over land and back out to sea. This is ahead of Erin, it has about until Monday to potentially develop. Unlikely, but a few ensembles show it.
Forecast lounge for this feature https://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Number=115724&gonew=1#UNREAD
9:00AM EDT 15 August 2025 Update
Recon has found that Erin has become a hurricane. This should be reflected shortly in the next NHC update.
Ciel
8:30AM EDT 15 August 2025 Update
Quick update to highlight the feature a lot closer to land, Invest 98L. Models have woken up and the latest runs are more suggestive of 65% or so odds of it becoming a TD or low-end (wind-wise) TS prior to or just upon pushing ashore somewhere either side of the MX/TX coastal border region later today. More than anything, this is a potential flood threat in areas already hammered by several rounds of flooding last month.
The second recon mission into 98L is en route to provide forecasters and models with critical data not otherwise available.
Ciel
8:45PM EDT 14 August 2025 Update
Above: Water Vapor imagery of Erin and Invest 98L at 0035z August 15, 2025 Cr. Weathernerds.org
Erin is on the cusp of being a hurricane tonight. There are a few hints that there could be a center slide or reformation that models have not yet factored in, and this is something to watch overnight into tomorrow morning as there could thus be an adjustment in forecast track on the way. Regardless, at a minimum, very dangerous and potentially life-threatening rip currents will almost be a certainty along a vast portion of the east coast of the United States, and potentially even more significant impacts down the road from there on the east coast and/or Bermuda.
Invest 98L is now up to NHC 50% odds of becoming a Tropical Cyclone. This is in the face of modeling that largely remains unrealistically cool on its potential. Potential Tropical Cyclone Watches and/or Warnings could be put up as soon as later tonight or Friday morning for portions of the Gulf coast from northeastern Mexico to along coastal south Texas. Realistically, this incipient cyclone will likely be coming in as a pretty serious inland flood threat, and interests from deep south Texas into the Texas Hill Country, including locations recently affected by devastating floods may want to start paying close attention to this developing situation and stay tuned to reliable local sources of accurate information.
Ciel
9AM EDT 14 August 2025 Update
Tropical Storm Erin is a 50mph Tropical Storm this morning, still heading generally west, and not expected to reach hurricane strength until the weekend. There's also an area in the Bay of Campeche that has a 20% chance to develop. Erin's forecast to stay north of the Northeastern Caribbean Islands, but they could feel a few fringe outer effects Beyond that it's still a bit tricky, but it's generally headed toward the gap between North Carolina and Bermuda right now. However it's still not comfortably certain yet, recon aircraft are going to be able to head out starting late tonight to help get a better situation and data for the hurricane center.
Modeling is still a bit too uncertain without the recon. Although it is looking better for Bermuda, most models have shifted west of it. However, things like the 6z GFS Ensembles this morning, make it clear how much recon is very much needed.
7PM EDT 13 August 2025 Update
We have just opened up a Forecast Lounge on newly Invest-tagged 98L in the Bay of Campeche. While models suggest its chances are extremely low, this system is landlocked and in a very favorable environment for development. Regardless of development, this system could have the potential to become a serious rain/flood-marker, which is always a very real risk with the "weak" ones. 98L Forecast Lounge
Ciel
5PM EDT 13 August 2025 Update
Tropical Storm Erin has strengthened today to a 50mph Tropical storm.
Erin is unlikely to directly impact the Caribbean islands, however Bermuda and parts of the US east coast could still be affected indirectly (surf, rip currents). It's important to monitor it. Especially in Bermuda and Eastern North Carolina.
Recon aircraft is en route to the area and will go to Erin tomorrow evening. The air force recon planes will be based out of St. Croix, and the NOAA ones out of Barbados.
8AM EDT 12 August 2025 Update
Erin continues to move west quickly around 22mph. Some easterly shear influence should keep it from strengthening much, if at all, for the day or so. Beyond that conditions start to improve, and by the time it gets over to the west conditions greatly improve, especially west of 60 west, where it has a chance to become very intense. The official forecast takes it north of the Caribbean, but folks in the islands will want to watch in the unlikely case anything changes. Low confidence beyond that, Bermuda has the largest chance to see impacts from the system, but other areas including the Bahamas and US coast, although fairly unlikely, cannot be ruled out.
I do want to reiterate how fast and weak the system are now could nudge the forecast track south enough to get closer to (not necessarily) over the Caribbean islands. So do not let your guard down there. The shear may be enough to weaken Erin a bit before it has a chance to strengthen again.
10:15AM EDT 11 August 2025 Update
Tropical Storm Erin has formed in the East Atlantic, it's something to watch closely, but not too concerning at the moment.
Most likely the energy remains offshore of the US, Bermuda will likely need to watch this very closely as it's most likely they will at least see some periphery impacts.
There's still about a 5% chance it could come closer to the Continental United States. The Caribbean Islands are unlikely, the Bahamas (particularly south and east) may need to watch. The Canadian Maritimes will also want to keep tabs on Erin.
It could get close however, close to the outer banks or new England are most likely if it does, but landfall is unlikely. So it's important to watch for trends over the next week or two.
8:15PM EDT 10 August 2025 Update
There have been worse looking tropical lows called TDs than Invest 97L at this time, and it is likely that the system gets the official designation within the next 12 hours or so. Presently, very tropical depression-like conditions are tracking over the Cabo Verde Islands in the far eastern Atlantic.
Over the next 24-48 hours, our incipient Tropical Cyclone (97L) bumps into a region of less unstable and outright subsident air while it tracks over slightly cooler waters. This may stall any further intensification until it reaches the warmer SSTs further west where it has a better chance to become a formidable Cape Verde type hurricane if all the stars remain aligned.
Closer to home, a curious area of low pressure, primarily aloft but also with a surface reflection, exists within a larger trof region in the eastern Gulf. While not yet Invest tagged, there are some ensembles that want to develop it into a depression before it pushes inland over north Florida early in the coming week, and we'll be watching. Lots and lots of rain, either way.
Ciel
Original Update
Invest 97L is a system in the far east Atlantic that just exited Africa, it's poised to a be a long track system. If it gets a name it'll be Erin. The 1995 version of Erin was the first hurricane to be covered by this website.
97L's long term future is uncertain, climatology and ensembles suggest it remains offshore, but odds are only slightly favorable for that outcome, not enough for comfort by any means. So it must be watched by those and the Caribbean and beyond for the trends. If the system becomes a depression it'll get advisories as well. Now that the system is an invest the more specific Hurricane models we begin to be ran on it.
Lots of time to watch where this goes.
More models and speculation can be found in the forecast lounge.
Erin Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Erin
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for Erin
CyclonicWx Page for Erin
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Erin
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Erin (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Erin
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Erin
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/ More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Erin -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Invest 99L Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 99
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for 99
CyclonicWx Page for 99
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99 (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/ More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Invest 90L Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 90
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for 90
CyclonicWx Page for 90
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 90
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 90 (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 90
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/ More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 90 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Eastern NC/OBX/Hampton Roads Media:
North Carolina Power Outage Map
North Carolina Flood Inundation and Mapping Network
WWAY TV 3 Wilmington, NC (ABC)
WECT TV 6 Wilmington, NC (NBC)
WILM TV 10 Wilmington, NC (CBS)
WITN 7 - Eastern North Carolina TV (NBC)
WCTI 12 - Eastern North Carolina (ABC)
WNCT TV 9 - Eastern North Carolina (CBS)
Wavy 10 (NBC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA TV
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Full Caribbean Radar Composite
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
Bermuda Newspapers/Media/Info:
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