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Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 39 (Michael) , Major: 39 (Michael) Florida - Any: 39 (Michael) Major: 39 (Michael)
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November Waves and Lows

Posted: 02:59 PM 10 November 2018 | | Add Comment

12PM ET Update 16 November 2018
96L has been greenballed (reactivated for tracking), and is rapidly organizing into a well-defined area of low pressure today, centered at roughly 24N 74.5W as of 1500z. If current trends continue NHC would likely issue an update by the regularly scheduled 7PM TWO.

Additional tracking info and speculation on 96L is also available in the 96L Lounge.


Original Entry

Above: Visible satellite of two areas of interest early morning Nov 10. Base map courtesy Weathernerds.org

A couple of unseasonably impressive waves in the Tropical Atlantic have the potential for some development next week, with steering currents that could push one or more near or over portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas and/or Bermuda.

The most impressive wave is presently located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, and has caught the attention of NHC as well as several of the better models for development - now at 40% within 5 days per NHC

Another feature, a trough centered about halfway between the above referenced wave and the Lesser Antilles, is not presently flagged by NHC for potential, but could be. Although models analyze conditions as less ideal for TC genesis than for the wave to its east, it is looking very impressive, suggesting that this disturbance is more vigorous and/or the environment is more conducive than models think.

Both of these features are likely to produce moderate to heavy showers and strong, gusty winds over populated portions of the SW Atlantic regardless of development.

This post will be updated with any Invest tags and TC numbers as warranted.

96L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 96L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 96L


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 96L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 96L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 96L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 96L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 96L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Facebook Update Posted
02:45 pm 15-Oct-2018 EDT

Mark Sudduth Oct 15 Update (First since Michael)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vq79BwjNQlQ

Facebook Update Posted
01:07 pm 13-Oct-2018 EDT

Hurricane Leslie making a final run of it today - all the way to Portugal- while beginning to undergo merger with a front and extra-tropical transition. Leslie, it's been real. And a really long time reading your advisories..

Facebook Update Posted
11:11 pm 11-Oct-2018 EDT

From Mark Sudduth/Hurricane track. Unmanned gopro recording of Mexico beach across the street from the (now former) Toucan's- Mexico Beach, Florida during the height of the storm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3ofAJSqpLM

Facebook Update Posted
10:41 pm 11-Oct-2018 EDT

https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/michael/index.html#17/29.76508/-85.40288
After Michael satellite photos. One of the most striking things is new cuts in St. Joseph's Peninsula (now an island) along Cape San Blas rd.

Facebook Update Posted
08:05 pm 11-Oct-2018 EDT

So far About 1.2 Million power outages reported from Michael

Facebook Update Posted
03:52 pm 11-Oct-2018 EDT

Michael's inland journey continues. Trees down all along its path From FL, GA, SC, NC, well into Virginia as well as Flash Flooding in NC and as far north as Roanoke, VA reported.

Facebook Update Posted
08:14 am 11-Oct-2018 EDT

Power outage map as of 8AM
more detail at https://poweroutage.us/

Facebook Update Posted
08:17 pm 10-Oct-2018 EDT

Reports from some of those who were there in Panama City. Including those who have went to multiple large hurricanes. The most violent system they have been in, and the whole city looks like a nuke was dropped on it and the damage is very widespread. Particularly in Panama City Proper and points east. Some of the cell networks are not operating or are extremely spotty.

Facebook Update Posted
03:27 pm 10-Oct-2018 EDT

Mexico Beach, Fl homes under water - you can really make out both the surge and wind damage in this https://twitter.com/WFLAJosh/status/1050098823194963968

Facebook Update Posted
01:44 pm 10-Oct-2018 EDT

Hurricane Michael makes landfall at Mexico City Beach, FL as a cat 4 with 155mph winds and 919mb of pressure. 3rd strongest US Landfall on record.

Facebook Update Posted
11:45 am 10-Oct-2018 EDT

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Extreme Wind Warning
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1111 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2018

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a

* Extreme Wind Warning for...
Gulf County in the Panhandle of Florida...
Southern Bay County in the Panhandle of Florida...
Southwestern Franklin County in Big Bend of Florida...

* Until 215 PM EDT/115 PM CDT/.

* At 1109 AM EDT/1009 AM CDT/, National Weather Service Doppler
radar indicated extreme winds in excess of 130 mph, associated
with the eyewall of Hurricane Michael, were moving onshore. THIS
IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Treat these imminent extreme winds as if a tornado
was approaching and move immediately to the safe room in your
shelter. Take action now to protect your life!

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