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Watching an area bringing rain over the Gulf and Florida that has a 20% chance to develop over the next 5 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 263 (Dorian) , Major: 594 (Michael) Florida - Any: 594 (Michael) Major: 594 (Michael)
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The Preseason - TD1

Posted: 01:05 PM 12 May 2020 | 3 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 03:05 PM 16-May EDT

Tropical Depression One has formed northeast of the Bahamas, and tropical storm watches are now up from Surf City to Duck in North Carolina.

It's mid may, and although it is the official start of hurricane season in the East Pacific (may 15th) sometimes we get preseason systems in May in the Atlantic (which starts on June 1st).

A special tropical weather outlook was issued for a system that may begin forming late this week northeast of the Bahamas. Although it isn't expected to directly affect land areas, those in Bermuda may want to keep watch on it.

Tropical Depression One Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of TD#1 - New for 2018

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD#1


SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#1 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#1 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#1

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#1
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#1 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track

SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -
> Bahamas Media

Bahamas Radar

Television & Radio:

ZNS Bahamas, Radio & TV

More 94 FM Bahamas


Bahamas Tribune

Nassau Guardian

Bahamas B2B

The Abaconian - Abaco Island News

Freeport News
Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

Power Outage Maps: South Carolina Power Outage Map North Carolina Power Outage Map Virginia Power Outage Map

Facebook Update Posted
11:21 am 19-Oct-2019 EDT

Post-Tropical Storm Nestor
The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Indian Pass, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Indian Pass to Yankeetown Florida

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

Facebook Update Posted
01:27 pm 17-Oct-2019 EDT

Storm Surge of up to 5 feet may show up in parts of the Northeastern Gulf from PTC16.

Facebook Update Posted
07:38 am 03-Sep-2019 EDT

Potential Tropical Depression 7 in the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to make landfall in Northeast Mexico as a Tropical Storm Tomorrow.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Wednesday evening, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts
of 15 inches will be likely over portions of northeastern Mexico,
especially in mountainous terrain.

Facebook Update Posted
07:36 am 03-Sep-2019 EDT

Hurricane Dorian is still stationary this morning,and the eye is starting to fill in because of cool water it's been pulling in from elsewhere, it is expected to finally begin to move north northwest away from Grand Bahama later today.

Facebook Update Posted
05:47 pm 02-Sep-2019 EDT

Levi Cowan Video update for Labor Day

Facebook Update Posted
12:30 pm 02-Sep-2019 EDT

Mark Sudduth from is in Central Florida today setting up remote unmanned cameras for Dorian. You can follow along in his live stream here

Facebook Update Posted
12:02 pm 02-Sep-2019 EDT

Local statement for E. Central Florida from Melbourne NWS office:


Extremely powerful Hurricane Dorian continues meandering over the
northwestern Bahamas as its eye wall continues to pound Grand Bahama
and Great Abaco islands this morning. The situation remains very
serious for east central Florida, and especially the coastal counties
of Martin, Saint Lucie, Indian River, Brevard and Volusia.

Dorian is an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane with winds near
155 mph. Dorian will slowly emerge north of Grand Bahama Island later
today, and begin to move very slowly toward the northwest and closer
to east central Florida through tonight. As Dorian slowly begins to
make its closest approach to east central Florida, it is expected to
turn north-northwest and parallel the coast from Tuesday into

Although it remains uncertain just how close the eye of Dorian will
get to the Florida east coast, the threat of damaging winds and life-
threatening storm surge remains high. There will be considerable
impacts and damage to coastal areas, with at least some effects felt
inland as well!

Strong tropical storm force winds between 40 and 55 mph, with gusts to
hurricane force, will spread north into Martin and Saint Lucie
Counties starting by this evening, then spread farther north into
Indian River County after midnight, and then across Brevard and
coastal Volusia Counties Tuesday through Tuesday night. The threat for
damaging winds is high for the coastal counties and any remaining
preparations for Dorian should be rushed to completion before strong
winds move into the area!

Inland communities will also have an increased threat for tropical
storm force winds, especially in eastern Okeechobee, Osceola, Orange
and Seminole Counties, as well as inland Volusia County. These strong
winds will reach Okeechobee and Osceola Counties beginning early
Tuesday morning. Farther north over the interior, winds to near
tropical storm force will begin Tuesday afternoon. Thus, a Tropical
Storm Warning has been issued for Orange, Seminole, Lake, and Inland
Volusia Counties. This will be a long duration event, with the worst
conditions lasting 18 to 24 hours!

The threat for life-threatening storm surge also remains high, and
severe erosion of the beaches and dune lines is a near certainty! The
combination of surge and high astronomical tides will cause severe
runup of waves and water, resulting in inundation of many coastal
locations. Surge may reach 4 to 7 feet above ground near the coast.

Large battering waves and higher than normal tides on top of the surge
will add to the destructive force of the water during several high
tide cycles. Needless to say, entering the water can be deadly as
there will also be numerous strong rip currents, in addition to the
very large breaking waves that will build in excess of 10 feet.

Heavy rainfall is forecast over east central Florida from Dorian, with
total amounts of 4 to 8 inches over the coastal counties and 3 to
6 inches inland, with maximum isolated rainfall amounts up to
10 inches along the coast. While isolated flash flooding will be
possible inland, it will be even more likely near the coast in urban
and poorly drained, low lying areas. Flooding and high water levels on
area rivers such as the Saint Johns River will be aggravated.

While threat remains low, isolated tornadoes will be possible in
squalls as they move onshore along the coast this afternoon through


Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across the coastal counties of Volusia, Brevard, Indian River,
Saint Lucie and Martin. Potential impacts in this area include:

- Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
uninhabitable for weeks.
- Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
access routes impassable.
- Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across the interior counties of Okeechobee,
Osceola, Orange, Seminole and inland Volusia.

Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive
impacts from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet. Potential impacts in this
area include:

- Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
barriers may become stressed.
- Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
- Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.

Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across all of east central Florida, with the threat remaining
highest along coastal areas. Potential impacts include:

- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals,
arroyos, and ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts in the
coastal counties of Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, Saint Lucie and
Martin. Potential impacts include:

- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
pulled from moorings.

Facebook Update Posted
10:54 am 02-Sep-2019 EDT

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward along the east coast of Florida to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward along the Georgia coast to the Savannah River.

The Hurricane Warning along the east coast of Florida has been extended northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia.

Dorian "weakens" slightly to a top end Category 4 hurricane.

Facebook Update Posted
09:19 am 02-Sep-2019 EDT

Beyond Dorian we remain at the peak of Hurricane Season. There are 4! other areas being watched right now, none any current threats to the US.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dorian, located over Grand Bahama Island.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
system located about 300 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands
continues to show signs of organization. A tropical depression is
expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves
generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible over the Cabo Verde Islands
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf of
Mexico is producing a wide area of showers and thunderstorms. This
system has become better organized since yesterday, and a tropical
depression could form during the next few days while the low moves
slowly westward across the south-central and southwestern Gulf of
Mexico toward the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Bermuda. Although the associated showers and
thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization, the system
does not have a well-defined surface center. Gradual development of
this system is possible during the next few days while the
disturbance moves slowly northward or north-northwestward. Interests
in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days.
Some gradual development of this disturbance will be possible late
this week or over the weekend while it moves westward to
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Facebook Update Posted
09:03 am 02-Sep-2019 EDT

Even with the forecast offshore, Dorian is a large hurricane, This 6z Euro image for Tuesday shows how far wind gusts reach inland in Central Florida. (Sustained will be less) But along the coast it's still possible for cat 2/3 wind gusts even with the current forecast. (image is for 48 hours). Shifts west would increase the wind inland, shifts right would lessen it.

Some outer rain bands are showing up in south Florida, and the storms "tail" is training rain over the Florida Keys this morning.

Facebook Update Posted
10:58 pm 01-Sep-2019 EDT



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