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Eresto Staying out to Sea. 99L is a low development chance (20%) system approaching the eastern Caribbean.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 313 (Nate) , Major: 330 (Maria) Florida - Any: 340 (Irma) Major: 340 (Irma)
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Atlantic Slowly Reawakening as Heart of Season Nears

Posted: 04:27 PM 10 August 2018 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 04:49 PM 10-Aug EDT

2PM AST Update 12 Aug 2018
As expected, a non-tropical low has formed in the north-central Atlantic and is showing some signs of being able to transition into a sub-trop or tropical cyclone. This system is now being tracked as an Invest, 98L, but is no threat to the Americas while it meanders over the subtropical Atlantic.

Elsewhere, the weak disturbance between the Caribbean and Africa has been decimated and is now given a near-zero chance of developing.
Ciel


Original Entry


The climatological heart of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is now just about a week away, generally thought of as mid-August trough mid-October, and while 2018 is expected by most specialists to end up with far fewer named storms, hurricanes and majors than last year, "it only takes one." Now, while it is still quiet, is a great time to do hurricane preparedness, so when the peak does come, and if a significant storm approaches, there will be less to worry about.



And all is not quiet. As of today, August 10, NHC is now focusing on two features. One, an expected development of a non-tropical low out in the central Atlantic that could acquire sub-tropical or tropical status much like pre-Debby did. This feature should not be a threat to the Americas. The other, a disturbance located about midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, could slowly develop next week as it travels west-northwest towards the Caribbean.

Subtropical Depression Five Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of SubTD 5 - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of SubTD 5


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float5latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of SubTD 5 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of SubTD 5 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of SubTD 5

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for SubTD 5
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on SubTD 5 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Invest 99L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 99L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 99L


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float6latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 99L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Facebook Update Posted
04:35 pm 16-Aug-2018 EDT

Storm Upgraded:Subtropical Storm #ERNESTO toTropical Storm #ERNESTO 43.0N 41.0W Wind 45MPH Moving NE at 18 MPH https://t.co/0wuYNsM6Wu

Facebook Update Posted
09:45 pm 15-Aug-2018 EDT

Eresto Staying out to Sea. 99L is a low development chance (20%) system approaching the eastern Caribbean.

Facebook Update Posted
01:16 pm 15-Aug-2018 EDT

Subtropical Storm Ernesto forms in the Central N. Atlantic, no threat to land areas.

Facebook Update Posted
05:39 am 15-Aug-2018 EDT

Subtropical Depression 5 forms in the Central Atlantic from 98L, no threat to land areas.

Facebook Update Posted
03:02 am 15-Aug-2018 EDT

#98L becoming a fully Sub-Tropical Cyclone and may be named later this morning, but no threat to US land as it heads NE over cooling waters

44.1N 38.9W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
Ne at 22 mph
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