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Storm #Arlene still firing convection near the center today while spinning fish
# of days since last Hurricane Landfall - US: Any 197 (Matthew) , Major: 4199 (11 y 5 m) (Wilma) Florida - Any: 234 (Hermine) Major: 4199 (11 y 5 m) (Wilma)
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Tropical Storm Arlene Forms in Central Atlantic

Posted: 03:32 PM 20 April 2017 | | Add Comment

The formerly non-tropical low that has been watched for a few days has acquired sufficient organization and intensity to become a tropical storm, Arlene, the first of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The newly-named tropical cyclone is not anticipated to impact land as a tropical cyclone, and is no threat to the U.S.

This is only the 2nd time a tropical storm has formed in April in the Atlantic since satellite based tracking began.



Arlene Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of ARLENE


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of ARLENE (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of ARLENE (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of ARLENE

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for ARLENE
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on ARLENE -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

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Ed Dunham

Hurricane Matthew Weather Summary for East Central Florida

Posted: 05:32 PM 16 October 2016
Hurricane Matthew passed just offshore of east-central Florida on the morning of October 7, 2016, as a Category III Major Hurricane with sustained winds of 115mph. The diameter of the eye at 5AM on Friday, October 7th, was 35NM and its location was 28.2N 80.0W or about 36 miles east of Patrick AFB with a movement to the north northwest at 13mph. Matthew moved parallel to the Florida coastline from Fort Pierce to Saint Augustine and then northward thereafter toward the South Carolina coast. Matthew never made landfall in Florida - the closest approach was at 6AM when the western edge of the eyewall brushed Cape Canaveral. Although the Tropical Storm force windfield was large, sustained winds of Hurricane strength only extended 40NM from the center on the western side of the tropical cyclone. Sustained hurricane force winds on land were confined to a small area at South Patrick Shores on the Barrier Island and a small area on the eastern tip of Cape Canaveral. In all other east central Florida coastal locations sustained winds of strong tropical storm force were observed. Storm total rainfall was generally in the 3 to 5 inch range except that some areas in Sanford received up to 9 inches of rain. Storm surge was in the 3 to 5 foot range along the east central Florida coast. During the storm, weather observations were not available from Indialantic, Patrick AFB, Cape Canaveral AFS and Titusville Airport - leaving a critical void in the meteorological record.

A low pressure reading of 28.97" was recorded at Melbourne NWS at 7AM. At 7:30AM I noted a pressure reading of 28.98" at my home in northwest Melbourne. The lowest pressure was located in the southern section of the eye of the hurricane and the central pressure from the Hurricane Hunters was recorded at 938MB (27.90") at 1AM. At 4AM the aircraft reported a circular eye with a diameter of 32NM and a central pressure of 942MB with flight level wind at 118 knots which translates to a 100 knot surface wind (115mph). At 7:17AM the aircraft sent a position fix for the eye at 28.6N 80.2W with a pressure of 942MB and eyewall sustained surface winds of 110 knots. The eye of Matthew had contracted to a circular 20NM diameter as the hurricane passed to the east of the area. Although the radius of the eye had contracted from 17NM to 10NM, the radius of sustained hurricane force winds remained at 40 miles to the west of the center. The central pressure increased and leveled off at 947MB during the day on Friday as Matthew moved NNW. If the eye of Matthew had moved along the shoreline, i.e., if it had been 35-40 miles further to the west, damage would have certainly been greater but no realistic conclusion can be made with regard to the extent of the destruction because an on-shore system would have slowly weakened.

Matthew goes into the record books as a Category I Hurricane in a small section of the Brevard County coast. In some reports from the NHC the flight level Recon wind speeds were not reduced correctly and resulted in stated maximum eyewall surface wind speeds that were about 10mph too high - and I cannot find a valid meteorological reason for doing this. Hurricane Erin in 1995 and Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne in 2004 were all storms with a greater impact on Brevard County. While the early call by the Brevard Emergency Management Operations Center to evacuate residents from the Barrier Islands was prudent, the overstated intensity and inland impacts were mis-leading and confusing to some of our residents. The National Hurricane Center and The Weather Channel both over-hyped the overall magnitude of the storm - which will not help folks to make the correct decision when the next hurricane visits our area. Matthew was not the catastrophic Category IV storm of the century that was touted by some for our area. All hurricanes are dangerous and deserve proper preparation and decision-making. It is worth noting that the area from Melbourne Beach to Titusville has never recorded a Cat III or greater hurricane. Someday that record of 165 years will probably be broken, but Matthew was not that storm. Hurricane David, September 3-4, 1979, was the last Category II Hurricane to hit this area with eye passage along the coast from West Palm Beach to New Smyrna Beach.
ED

Selected Weather Reports:

Vero Beach - wind W 49G74mph Rainfall 3.16"
Sebastian - wind N 30G59mph
5N Barefoot Bay - wind N G74mph
4NNW Grant - wind NW 51G68mph
Malabar - wind N 60G72mph
Melbourne Beach - wind N 23G63mph Lowest SLP: 28.85"
Melbourne (Dairy Road) - wind N 44G71mph
Melbourne - wind N 44G76mph Lowest SLP: 28.97"
NW Melbourne - wind NNW 42G65 Lowest SLP: 28.98 Storm Total Rainfall: 3.43"
Satellite Beach - wind N 69G87mph
2SSE Patrick AFB - wind N 69G88mph
South Patrick Shores - wind N 73G90mph Lowest SLP: 28.86"
Cocoa Beach Park - wind N 60G77mph
Merritt Island (Sunset Lakes) - wind NW 36G55mph Lowest SLP: 28.90"
Merritt Island (Banana River) - wind NNW 63G81mph
3WNW Cape Canaveral - wind gust N 86mph
4NE Cape Canaveral - wind gust NNW 81mph Coastal Flooding
5NE Port Canaveral - wind gust N 100mph
KSC Tower 22 - wind gust NW 107mph (non-standard anemometer height)
KSC Tower 3 - NNW 77G107mph (non-standard anemometer height)
Titusville (Parrish Park) - wind N 58G75mph
5NNE New Smyrna Beach - wind gust N 80mph
Daytona Beach (Speedway) - wind gust NNW 91mph
5NE Lake Mary - 24 hour rainfall 7.04"
Orlando Intl Airport - wind W 30G61mph Lowest SLP: 29.30"

From the Melbourne NWS:

G. STORM IMPACTS BY COUNTY...
---------------------------------------------------------------------
COUNTY DEATHS INJURIES EVACUATIONS
DESCRIPTION
---------------------------------------------------------------------
BREVARD 0 1 UNKNOWN
ONE DIRECT INJURY. A MALE IN HIS 40S WAS INJURED IN PORT CANAVERAL
WHEN A SIGN FELL AND STRUCK HIM DURING THE STORM. DAMAGE TO
BUSINESSES AND HOMES MAINLY AS A RESULT OF FALLEN TREES. SEVERAL
HOMES WITH WATER INTRUSION DUE TO DAMAGED ROOFS. TWO HOMES LOST TO
FIRE AS OFFICIALS SUSPENDED EMERGENCY SERVICES DURING THE HEIGHT OF
THE STORM. SPORADIC COUNTYWIDE DAMAGE TO FENCES...AWNINGS...AND
SCREEN ROOMS. AN INITIAL COASTAL SURVEY INDICATES MODERATE TO MAJOR
BEACH EROSION WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO BERMS AND DUNES.
PRELIMINARY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT INDICATES AN ECONOMIC LOSS OF $25
MILLION DUE TO COASTAL EROSION, AND $4 MILLION DUE TO VEGETATIVE
LOSSES. PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT HAS NOT BEEN COMPLETED. ABOUT
300,000 CUSTOMERS WERE WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.

INDIAN RIVER 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. ROUGH SURF AND MAJOR BEACH EROSION.
PRELIMINARY BEACH DAMAGE ASSESSMENT DETAILS MAJOR DUNE EROSION AND
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PEDESTRIAN CROSSWALKS WITHIN COUNTY OWNED
BEACH PARKS WITH AN ESTIMATED ECONOMIC LOSS OF $13 MILLION. SEVERAL
HOMES DAMAGED MAINLY BY FALLEN TREES.

LAKE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR URBAN...ROADWAY...AND LOWLAND FLOODING.
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER NEAR ASTOR PEAKED JUST BELOW MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE. MINOR DAMAGE TO FOUR HOMES WITH MAJOR DAMAGE TO THREE CAUSED
MAINLY BY FALLING BRANCHES AND TREES. EARLY PROPERTY DAMAGE
ASSESSMENT OF APPROXIMATELY $389 THOUSAND.

MARTIN 0 1 UNKNOWN
ONE INDIRECT INJURY. A 47-YEAR-OLD MALE WAS ELECTROCUTED WHEN HIS
TOOLS HIT A LIVE POWER LINE WHILE TRIMMING TREES IN STUART AFTER
THE STORM ON MONDAY OCTOBER 10 AROUND 8:15 AM. ROUGH SURF AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION. MINOR DAMAGE TO HOMES MAINLY AS A RESULT OF FALLEN
TREES. ISOLATED DAMAGE TO FENCES...AWNINGS...AND SCREEN ROOMS.
PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT NOT YET AVAILABLE.

OKEECHOBEE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO ONE HOME. UP TO 2300
CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER AT HEIGHT OF STORM.

ORANGE 1 0 UNKNOWN
ONE DEATH INDIRECTLY RELATED TO HURRICANE MATTHEW. A 70-YEAR-OLD
WOMAN DIED AFTER HER MEDICAL DEVICE FAILED DURING A POWER OUTAGE.
PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT NOT YET AVAILABLE FROM OFFICIALS.

OSCEOLA 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. NO REPORTS OF STRUCTURAL DAMAGE OR FLOODING.
MINOR DAMAGE MAINLY TO TREES AND VEGETATION. UP TO 5900 CUSTOMERS
WERE WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.

SEMINOLE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR URBAN...ROADWAY...LOWLAND AND RIVER
FLOODING. DAMAGE TO BUSINESSES AND RESIDENCES MAINLY BY FALLING
BRANCHES AND TREES. INITIAL PROPERTY DAMAGE ESTIMATED $15 MILLION.
UP TO 70,000 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.

ST. LUCIE 2 2 UNKNOWN
TWO INDIRECT DEATHS AND TWO INDIRECT INJURIES. A 58-YEAR-OLD INDIAN
RIVER ESTATES WOMAN DIED OF A HEART ATTACK AND A PORT ST. LUCIE MAN
IN HIS 80S DIED AFTER SUFFERING BREATHING PROBLEMS AND SYMPTOMS OF A
STROKE AS FIRE OFFICIALS SUSPENDED EMERGENCY SERVICES DURING THE
HURRICANE. A 90-YEAR-OLD MALE AND FEMALE WERE FOUND UNCONSCIOUS IN
THEIR PORT ST. LUCIE HOME AFTER OFFICIALS DISCOVERED THEY WERE
RUNNING A GAS GENERATOR IN THEIR GARAGE. ROUGH SURF AND MODERATE TO
MAJOR BEACH EROSION. DAMAGE CONFINED MAINLY TO TREES...POWER
LINES...AND SIGNAGE THROUGH THE COUNTY. PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT
NOT YET AVAIALBLE FROM OFFICIALS.

VOLUSIA 4 0 UNKNOWN
ONE DIRECT AND THREE INDIRECT FATALITIES. A 63-YEAR-OLD WOMAN DIED
WHEN A TREE FELL ON HER AS SHE WAS OUT FEEDING ANIMALS AT HER DELAND
HOME. A 89-YEAR-OLD MAN FROM DELEON SPRINGS WAS ELECTROCUTED BY A
DOWNED POWER LINE MONDAY MORNING AROUND 8:00 AM OCTOBER 10. A 47-
YEAR-OLD NORTHEAST OHIO MAN ASSISTING CLEANUP EFFORTS IN ORMOND
BEACH WAS KILLED WHEN PART OF A DOWNED TREE ROLLED ON TOP OF HIM AND
PINNED HIM UNDERNEATH. A 9-YEAR-OLD DAYTONA BEACH BOY WAS FOUND
UNCONSCIOUS IN HIS HOME AFTER OFFICIALS DISCOVERED A GENERATOR
RUNNING IN ANOTHER ROOM. THE BOY LATER DIED AT HALIFAX HEATLH
MEDICAL CENTER. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUSINESS THROUGHOUT
THE COUNTY WITH OVER 6400 PROPERTIES AFFECTED, 1100 WITH MINOR
DAMAGE, 300 WITH MAJOR DAMAGE, AND 40 STRUCTURES DESTROYED. INITIAL
PROPERTY DAMAGE ESTIMATE OF $490 MILLION. ROUGH SURF AND MAJOR BEACH
EROSION. BEACH EROSION DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.
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Ed Dunham

Hurricane Matthew - Getting Too Close For Comfort

Posted: 01:42 PM 05 October 2016
The latest model runs move Matthew west again to about 30 miles east of east central Florida - the GFS model even has the hurricane moving right up the coastline from Jupiter to Daytona Beach. Matthew is reforming rapidly after crossing far eastern Cuba last night and the hurricane is now moving northwest at 12MPH with winds gusting up to 140mph. Matthew should pass about 30 miles east of Melbourne at 8AM Friday morning with central winds at that time of 120mph gusting to 145mph. Peak winds on the Barrier Islands will be out of the north at 65mph with gusts as high as 90mph. Peak winds on the mainland in the vicinity of I-95 will be out of the north at 60mph gusting to 75mph. Outer rainbands will move into east central Florida by Thursday afternoon. Finish all hurricane preparations by Thursday morning. If you are in an evacuation area please follow Emergency Management instruction and evacuate as directed and have a plan on where you intend to seek safety. Just a minor westward shift of the track could bring at least Category II hurricane conditions to the east central Florida coastline. Prepare now, have a plan and stay safe. This change in the track revises some of my earlier thinking - if you are in an evacuation zone or a mobile or manufactured home you should evacuate no later than early Thursday morning.
ED
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Ed Dunham

Hurricane Matthew - It Could Get Interesting

Posted: 09:07 PM 03 October 2016
Matthew is a Category IV Major Hurricane located in the northern Caribbean Sea just to the south of the western tip of Haiti and the eastern tip of Cuba and it will move across both of those areas on a northward trek tonight and Tuesday. Winds are currently sustained at 140mph with gusts to 170mph and the central pressure is 934MB (27.58 inches). Tuesday afternoon Matthew will turn to the northwest, under the influence of a building ridge of high pressure to the north of the hurricane, while moving through the Bahamas on Wednesday and Thursday with winds of 115mph gusting to 140mph (Category III).

On Friday morning and early afternoon Matthew should move parallel to and about 50 miles offshore of the Florida east coast from Jupiter to Daytona Beach. Closest approach to east central Florida expected to be around 11Z (7AM) on Friday morning. Winds in east central Florida will be out of the Northeast on Thursday evening becoming more Northerly Friday morning peaking at 50mph gusting to 65mph on the barrier islands and 40mph gusting to 50mph inland near I-95. I expect that the National Hurricane Center will issue a Tropical Storm Watch (or Warning) for the eastern portion of the Florida peninsula late tonight or early Tuesday morning.

Rainfall totals in east Florida are expected to be in the 3 - 5" range with some localized flooding likely. Storm surge in the 3 to 5 foot range is possible on the barrier islands as the hurricane approaches and the surface winds increase out of the northeast. Boats should be secured for strong tropical storm force winds and high waves. Rip current threat will increase on Thursday and Friday. Loose objects, lawn chairs, etc., should be secured or stored on Tuesday and Wednesday. As the weather deteriorates, provide shelter for your pets.

Use Tuesday to check on your storm supplies and replenish as needed. Have an adequate supply of drinking water and batteries on hand - if the storm track adjusts more to the west you just might need these items. Monitor the progress of this hurricane closely - if a Category III hurricane rides up the coast and you are in its path, do you have an evacuation plan? Hopefully Matthew will stay far enough offshore and the impacts will be minimal but being prepared is always a smart choice.
ED
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Ed Dunham

Matthew & Models

Posted: 02:26 PM 01 October 2016
Hurricane Matthew, in three hours, has gone from a movement to the west to movement to the south to movement to the east - and thats not a wobble but rather a cyclonic loop. It can imply many things, one of which is that total dependence on model output is not the best way to make a forecast. Upper level steering currents still control Matthew's movement even though those currents are weak. If Matthew simply sits and spins in a loop for awhile, upwelling will eventually weaken the hurricane. A loop also delays Matthew's track - no matter what that track eventually turns out to be. The 01/12Z GFS seems to have a good handle on the future of Matthew. It starts by stalling the system for a few hours (its difficult to graphically define a tight loop) and then takes the system north - east of Jamaica - and into the high mountains of eastern Cuba Tuesday morning. The model then takes Matthew through the southern Bahamas and well to the east of Florida on Thursday followed by a possible threat to eastern North Carolina next Saturday and New England on Sunday, October 9th. Given Matthew's current looping delay, high pressure over the continental U.S. will have time to build eastward and reduce, but not yet eliminate, the likelyhood of a threat to Florida.

To repeat something that I've said before, the model is not the forecast - it is just a guide that is used to make the forecast. The models on this particular storm have not performed well. They missed the rapid intensification cycle that took place Friday evening - they missed the extended movement of the hurricane to the west southwest and even southwest at times - and they missed the cyclonic loop currently underway. These changes, whether subtle or sudden, are still difficult things to forecast and its important to remember that models are simply software programs that were developed by scientists. Just like weather forecasts, they are not perfect and precise and they were not intended to be - to base your forecast entirely on model output means that bad forecasts will occasionally be made.
ED
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Ed Dunham

Hermine Heads for Florida

Posted: 02:22 AM 01 September 2016
At 2AM, Tropical Storm Hermine was located about 300 miles to the west southwest of Tampa in the eastern Gulf of Mexico near 26.0N 87.0W with winds of 60mph gusting to 75 mph and a central pressure of 999 MB. Hermine is moving just east of due north at 6mph. Sea-Surface Temperatures are as high as 30C in the Gulf of Mexico so additional intensification to Cat I Hurricane strength seems likely. I expect that the system will move slightly to the right of the current NHC forecast track with landfall late Thursday evening southwest of Cross City and exit into the Atlantic in the Jacksonville area early Friday morning. The tropical cyclone should maintain at least Tropical Storm strength as it crosses the peninsula. The storm is a typical Gulf system with most of the wind and weather located in the eastern half of the cyclone.

Sustained Tropical Storm winds are likely in Jacksonville and possible in St Pete/Tampa, Orlando and Daytona Beach. Wind gusts to tropical storm force in rain squalls (40 to 45mph) are possible along and north of a line from Ft Myers to Ft Pierce on Thursday. Scattered to numerous tropical downpours - a few with thunder - will produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches in east central Florida on Thursday and early Friday with much heavier amounts in west central and northeast Florida. Significant flooding is likely through Friday - especially in west central to northeast Florida. Hurricane force winds at landfall Thursday evening will create widespread power outages and flooded roadways in the Cross City to Jacksonville corridor. Isolated tornadoes are possible - mostly over the northern half of the peninsula - on Thursday

Most of the forecast models seem to have initialized Hermine's center too far to the west, and it is quite possible that Hermine may move slightly more to the right than I have indicated - which primarily would generate higher winds in west central Florida. A good guideline with this Tropical Storm is to extrapolate the current movement, whenever the storm turns more to the north northeast, and use that as the expected track since nothing is likely to move the storm to the left of that line.
ED
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