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96L may form tomorrow, the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands should watch it closely. Too soon to tell beyond that.
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Models and the Wave (96L)

Posted: 07:32 PM 19 August 2014 | 2 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 10:57 AM 21-Aug EDT

7:45 AM EDT 21 August 2014 Update
The wave east of the Caribbean is at a 50% chance for development in the next 48 hours, and based on what the recon flight later today shows, it may or may not be upgraded today. This morning it looks a bit rough, so development may hold off for another day or two.

The system has moved a bit north in latitude and a lot of attention to model runs recently has ramped up some hype. The Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will need to watch for some development, if it develops, for tropical storm type weather.

Beyond that is pure speculation, long range model runs have had very high rates of error for this system so far (based on the standard deviations) And until the system is well established using them is not a good idea, except to watch for trends. And right now the trends have swung wildly, and probably will for another day or two.

Also what, if any, interaction with the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, is a factor.



The biggest drivers of the future position of this system are the trough in the western Atlantic and the high at the time it closes by, the global models are struggling with this right now, so I'd avoid reading into them too much.

Those in the Bahamas and Southeast should watch through the weekend to see what happens on this. The trend directions, as of this morning, keep it offshore, but those trends are still with a very low confidence. See the forecast lounge for more discussion and speculation.

Original Update
A tropical wave east of the Caribbean, although likely not to develop in the short term, has a moderate chance later in the week. 30% in the next 48 hours, and 50% over the next 5 days.

The dry air conditions are likely to put a damper on it, but being later in August those in the Caribbean will want to watch it. Long range models do put it as a potential threat to the northern Caribbean islands, including Cuba, and it possibly could enter the Gulf of Mexico. See the forecast lounge for more discussion on the longer range.

Despite that, it still has to develop around the dry air, which may let up Thursday or Friday somewhat, and enter into more favorable conditions.

More to come later, if necessary.

Another wave east of 96L also has a 20% chance for development over the next 5 days, but it is not being tracked as an invest currently. Model runs will be unreliable until a few runs after it develops, so don't read into long range forecasts this early.

If named, the storm would be called Cristobal.

French Antilles Radar recording of 96L approach

Barbados Radar recording of 96L approach

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Invest 96L (East of Caribbean Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 96L


stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 96L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 96L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 96L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 96L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 96L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

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Watching a wave (94L) In the East Atlantic

Posted: 04:43 PM 10 August 2014 | | Add Comment

Another wave with a 40% chance for development over the next 5 days is being watched in the east Atlantic. This wave, tracked as 94L, has quite a bit of dry air and poor conditions to traverse before entering more favorable areas. Most of the Atlantic east of the Caribbean is currently awash in generally dry conditions.

However it is approaching the start of the peak season, in mid August that runs through mid October. So it is important to watch this and any other tropical disturbances that may develop.


Invest 94L (East Atlantic Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 94L


stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


More to come later.

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Atlantic Quiet. Hurricane Warnings up for the Big Island of Hawaii

Posted: 09:28 PM 06 August 2014 | 2 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 09:28 AM 08-Aug EDT

Bertha has transitioned to a post tropical storm, and the center is remaining away from land areas, leaving the Atlantic Quiet.

However, Hawaii has an approaching Hurricane, Iselle, and another hurricane, Julio behind that.

Hurricane Warnings are up for the Big Island of Hawaii, and a Tropical Storm warning is up for Maui.

The last hurricane warning issued for any island in Hawaii was in 1992, with Iniki.



CPHC Info and Advisories on Iselle



Iselle, through recon reports, has been stronger than anticipated at this time, which warranted the Hurricane Warning for the big Island. The actual track of the storm is slightly north of the forecast track in the above image, which would likely mean more impact for the Big Island and Maui than currently indicated.

Typically flhurricane does not cover storms outside the Atlantic, but exceptions are made for Hawaii. The available resources are much less, however.

Iselle Floater Satellite images

Juan Floater Satellite images

Webcams Big Island, Hawaii
Sheraton Kona Resort & Spa at Keauhou Bay Cam
Kailua Bay webcam
Hilo Bay Webcam
Hilton Waikoloa Village Lagoon Tower Cam
Hilton Waikoloa Village Lagoon Tower Cam
Hilton Waikoloa Village Ocean Tower Cam

List of Maui Webcams


Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Hawaiian Media:

TV:

KITV 4 - Honolulu (ABC)

KHON 2 - Honolulu (Fox)

Hawaii News Now KGMB 9 (CBS)/KHNL 13 (NBC)

Newspaper:

Hawaii 24/7 (Big Island Newspaper)

Hawaii Tribune-Herald

Maui News

Honolulu Star Advertiser



NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunters have made an extended trip out to Diamonhead in Hawaii to run missions to the storm.


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Bertha Strengthening but Forecast to Stay Away from Land Areas

Posted: 11:21 PM 31 July 2014 | 5 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 10:17 AM 02-Aug EDT

9:15 AM EDT 4 August 2014 Update

Tropical Storm Bertha is now a 70 MPH Storm, and forecast to become a hurricane later today or tomorrow. Beyond rip current and high waves along the coast, Bertha should stay offshore.

Bertha is forecast to remain away from land both the US and Bermuda. Toward the end of the forecast, parts of Newfoundland are in the Cone.

Models may drift a bit west today, but still should be well offshore.

Canadian Hurricane Centre

8:30 PM EDT 1 August 2014 Update



Bertha has pressed on through another day of marginal support, at best, during the day Friday, as a poorly organized tropical storm.

As of 8:30 PM EDT, recon has found just enough wind to support the current advisory of 50MPH. In addition, convection began firing right over the LLC late this afternoon, and continues to do so tonight, as Bertha finally appears to be traveling within a zone of at least temporarily lower wind shear, as well as traveling over warmer waters. Thus, it is possible that strengthening resumes overnight tonight.

Saturday, deteriorating conditions are expected in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, but this is not all bad. Much of the Antilles has been struggling with moderate to severe rainfall deficits.

Ciel


7:30 AM EDT 1 August 2014 Update
August begins with Bertha east of the Caribbean, but she is very sheared. The NHC's current forecast seems good. Bertha will likely stay a Tropical Storm (and fluctuate a bit up and down) over the next few days. The Watch/Warning areas should expect Tropical Storm conditions and rain.

The first areas to see gusts toward tropical storm force are in Martinique and St Lucia later this morning.



Beyond the islands Bertha may approach the eastern Bahamas, but eventually likely will curve out to sea.

French Antilles Radar Recording of Bertha Approach Alt player

Barbuda Radar Recording of Bertha Approach Alt player

Original Update
Just enough deep convection has developed just about atop of the low level circulation of 93L that NHC has concluded sufficient organization now warrants an upgrade of the system to Tropical Storm Bertha. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 45MPH, with higher gusts.

Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia & Dominica.

Tropical Storm Watches are now in effect for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, U.S. Virgin Islands, St Vincent & the Grenadines.

Ciel

Caribbean Islands Weather Reports

Antilles Weather Radar


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Bertha Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Bertha


stormplotthumb_3.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Bertha (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Bertha (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Bertha

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Bertha
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Bertha -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

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Persistent Invest 93L Remains on the Cusp

Posted: 02:25 AM 28 July 2014 | 6 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 10:58 PM 31-Jul EDT

7:30 PM EDT 31 July 2014 Update


SAL (Saharan Air Layer) has been blown and drawn into the very center of 93L's circulation today. This could easily be the kiss of death for just about most any other system, but it is these tenacious tropical lows that one should not write off so quickly, and as such, NHC still gives 70% odds for development within the next 48 hours. After that, it is not entirely clear whether or not an upper-level low to 93L's northwest, which is currently in the process of retrograding and digging southwest, may do more to increase westerly shear while it is around the islands, or perhaps help induce and increase outflow.

Ciel

5:00 AM EDT 31 July 2014 Update
Despite being nearly decapitated by modest shear and some dry air entrainment, the low designated Invest 93L has continued walking a thin line from being upgradable, to being forgettable. Not surprisingly, yesterday NHC adjusted their depression forecast to a coin flip: 50/50.

This morning 93L finds itself back in a slightly better environment to finally seal the deal, and NHC has teams at the ready tentatively scheduled to check it out later today, or tonight.

Bottom line, more factors than not today support a potential resumption of development, and given 93L's still low latitude owing to its starts and fits, interests in the islands should take note. Near tropical storm force winds are already occurring, and only a small increase in organization could warrant watches and warnings, with a direct impact now more possible.

Ciel

9:15 PM EDT 28 July 2014 Update


While the last update from NHC was merely an hour ago, giving 93L a 50% chance of development within the next 48 hours (and 70% within 5 days), the system has quickly become better organized throughout the late afternoon and evening, and now tonight it appears that a Tropical Depression could already be forming.

A very timely Scatterometer pass from about 7:42 PM EDT clearly shows that while still on the mild side, surface winds were closing off directly underneath a coalescing sphere of deep convection, a tell-tale sign of tropical cyclogenesis.

Ciel

Original Entry



After a fairly quiet couple of weeks in the Atlantic, things may be about to change.

The modest tropical wave that rolled off the coast of Africa a few days ago and that has been gradually picking up some steam has become sufficiently organized to be given an Invest tag for tracking: 93L.

As of 2AM EDT July 28, Invest 93L was located roughly 550 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands in the central Atlantic, moving west around 10-15MPH.

93L is in a favorable environment for further organization, and it looks probable that it will become a numbered tropical cyclone within the next few days, with movement expected to the west or west-northwest.

Ciel

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Bertha Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Bertha


stormplotthumb_3.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Bertha (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Bertha (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Bertha

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Bertha
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Bertha -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Latest Meteorologist Blog - See More Blogs...
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Ed Dunham

Hurricane Arthur

Posted: 05:50 PM 03 July 2014
Kudos to The Weather Channel for deviating from the 'official' forecast earlier this afternoon. At 5PM EDT on July 3rd, NHC made an adjustment westward with the forecast track for Hurricane Arthur - and the actual track is probably going to be slightly west of that.

An upper level low located near 39N 58W at 03/21Z continues to retrograde westward. High pressure is centered south of the Great Lakes behind a cool front moving eastward through the Appalachian Range. Hurricane Arthur continues to maintain more of a north northeast movement and I would anticipate a track adjustment on a course a little more to the west with Arthur moving over eastern North Carolina just to the west of the Outer Banks as a Cat II Hurricane Thursday night into the early hours of Friday morning. As the front approaches the east coast, Arthur will be nudged into more of a northeast movement with the center passing just to the southeast of Cape Cod around midnight Friday night as a minimal Cat I hurricane undergoing extratropical transition.

Hurricane conditions likely over eastern North Carolina within 25 miles of the center track in the southwest and northwest quadrants and within 75 miles of the track in the northeast and southeast quadrants. Any hurricane preparations by those who are in or near the path of the hurricane should have already been completed. A fully transitioned strong Extratropical storm should pass over Nova Scotia on Saturday and over Newfoundland on Sunday.
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