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96L (Eastern Wave) up to 50% chance for development. 97L at 30%... moving too fast to really develop.
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Tracking Two Waves in East Atlantic. E. Carib Should watch for Sunday

Posted: 09:32 AM 27 July 2016 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 03:52 PM 28-Jul EDT

9:00 AM EDT 29 July 2016 Update
97L's chances for development seem low, and it probably will not develop.

96L's chances are higher for development, but it will likely fall apart before getting near the Eastern Caribbean.

96L has a similar setup to Tropical Storm Dorian in 2013. Dorian's track plots.
Dorian was a late July Cape Verde storm that fell apart before reaching the islands, then reformed briefly as a Tropical Depression off the coast of Florida, but never made landfall and became post tropical.

Old articles about Dorian here and it reforming here. Overall a fairly forgettable system.

3:30 PM EDT 28 July 2016 Update

97L, a wave west of 96L, is now being tracked, it was picked up by some of the models yesterday. This has a 30% chance for development over the next 5 days.

96L has a 40% chance for development over the next few days.

If 97L impacts the Leewards/Northern Caribbean timing would be on this Sunday.

A recon flight is tentatively scheduled for 97L on Saturday assuming the system holds together. It's fairly likely it won't because of how quickly it is moving.


Original Update
The first cape verde type wave of the 2016 Hurricane Season, 96L, has a 20% chance to form into a tropical storm or depression over the next 5 days, and about a 10% chance to form within the next two.

This system is far from land and has a great deal of hurdles to overcoming as it crosses the Atlantic. This is fairly early, but not unheard of, for a storm from that region to potentially form, It currently is located just west of the African shoreline moving west.

Most of the models don't develop it much, or really keep it alive for terribly long, but weaker long-track systems tend to track more southerly so it will be worth monitoring over the next week or two. It is possible other waves may show up next week as well. Things may transition to being very busy by Mid-August.

One of the largest factors likely to keep this system weak, or possibly tear it up later is the high level of SAL (Saharan Air Layer) present right now, in fact it's the cause of it being lost by some models. This high SAL should fall apart by mid-late August, which opens the door to things becoming busy then.

There is plenty of time to watch 96L, and the possibility of other systems into August. The best window for development is in 2-4 days, after which favorable conditions for development drop off considerably. It likely will struggle to make it all the way across the Atlantic, if it does.

More speculation available in the Forecast Lounge.
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StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

967 Wave in East Atlantic Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 97L


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 97L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 97L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 97L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 97L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 97L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


96L Wave in far East Atlantic Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 96L


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 96L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 96L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 96L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 96L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 96L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)



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Maui and The Big Isle of Hawaii Under a Tropical Storm Warning for Darby

Posted: 02:35 PM 22 July 2016 | | Add Comment

Tropical Storm Darby, with 60MPH winds is approaching the big island of Hawaii, and is expected to go directly over it, Maui, and Oahu, over the next few days. Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the big Island and Maui, and Tropical Storm watches are up for Oahu.






Tropical Storm warnings are in effect for the big island of Hawaii, Maui, Molokai, Lanai and Kahoolawe. A Tropical Storm Watch may be required for Oahu early Saturday morning.

Tropical Storm Darby is approaching from the east and may have some effect of more of the Hawaiian islands other than Maui and the Big Island. Based on the forecast the storm will be near the Big Island tomorrow, and closest to Maui early Sunday morning, Hawaii time.

Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Hawaiian Media:

TV:

KITV 4 - Honolulu (ABC)

KHON 2 - Honolulu (Fox)

Hawaii News Now KGMB 9 (CBS)/KHNL 13 (NBC)

Newspaper:

Hawaii 24/7 (Big Island Newspaper)

Hawaii Tribune-Herald

Maui News

Honolulu Star Advertiser

The Atlantic likely will remain quiet through the remainder of July, but mid to late August things may heat up.

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Tropical Storm Conditions Just Offshore Mex Coastline.

Posted: 07:14 AM 20 June 2016 | | Add Comment

6:00AM CDT June 20
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE


Recon sampled TD FOUR around 0700 this morning to find an elongated looking system barely qualifying as a tropical cyclone, but in the space of just two hours minimum central pressure had dropped by 4mb, still falling, with maximum sustained winds as derived by SFMR comfortably running at least 35 MPH, and rising. Of some interest, a secondary tight circulation center exists at the southernmost portion of FOUR's deep convection, but this feature is not likely to replace the primary.

In addition to southeastern Mexico waking up to a more serious looking tropical cyclone, the storm is apparently doing some stair-stepping (northwesterly) into landfall, sending more of its inclement weather further up the coast, with loosely associated thundershowers now even pushing in as far north as Brownsville, TX. Also, stair-stepping up the coast into landfall could allow for more time over water.

The next name on the list this season is Danielle. This would be the earliest fourth named storm in the Atlantic basin on record, although some nameable systems were likely missed before the advent of better detection, and especially so prior to the modern satellite era.



Danielle Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Danielle


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Danielle (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Danielle (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Danielle

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Danielle
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Danielle -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


95L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 95L


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 95L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 95L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 95L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 95L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 95L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

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Recon Finds Invest 94L a Tropical Depression

Posted: 07:55 PM 18 June 2016 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 06:16 PM 19-Jun EDT

4:30PM CDT June 19 Update

Recon has found Invest 94L with a well-defined surface center of circulation and just enough organized deep convection to be classified as a Tropical Depression, and advisories have begun on TD FOUR. The tropical cyclone is forecast to become Tropical Storm Danielle and make landfall along the Mexican state of Veracruz.




1:00PM EDT June 19 Update

Invest 94L appears to have consolidated overnight into a location further south and west of where many agencies were tracking its mean center, and now much more aligned with the actual surface circulation.

If this continues to verify, it would take Texas out of any risk, save some additional moisture influx next week, and place extreme southeast Mexico under the gun for copious rains and flooding. Also, with maximum sustained winds now estimated at 35MPH, only a small increase in organization and wind speed would necessitate Tropical Storm Warnings for the coastline there.


8:00PM EDT June 18

A remarkably early start to an Atlantic basin season is trying to add another notch on its belt. The wave we have been following in the northwest Caribbean, now being tracked as Invest 94L, has developed into an area of tightening surface low pressure in the Bay of Campeche.

There is a window of between another two to three or so days before the Low moves inland, for continued development, and as such there is probably enough time for more than just a tropical depression to form. Shear in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is fairly supportive, and while dry air is abundant, it is starting to mix out from the increasing convection firing up within 94L's circulation.

The next name on the list this year is Danielle. This would be yet another all-time record early date for names in the Atlantic, with 2016 having just broken the record for earliest 3rd name. 94L could be setting the new record for earliest 4th named - previously the bragging rights of 2012, when Tropical Storm Debby formed on June 23rd of that year.




TD#4 Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of td#4


stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of td#4 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of td#4 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of td#4

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for td#4
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on td#4 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

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Colin Exits Back to Slow

Posted: 06:03 AM 08 June 2016 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 03:34 PM 08-Jun EDT

Colin, a system that never got very organized, has moved well out to sea at this point, only a small bit of the stream of rain left behind remains. Colin was mostly a rain event with a few areas of coastal flooding, and street flooding, north central Florida got the majority of rain, areas north of tampa, Gainesville, and toward St. Augustine had the most. Rain also made the way up through Georgia, South and North Carolina before it moved away from shore.

Beyond Colin, the East Pacific had its first Tropical Depression, short lived, but still is oddly behind the Atlantic 0-3 as far as named storms.



There is nothing credible to look out for in the Atlantic now, just general areas to watch for June including around the Bay of Campeche (SW Gulf) (remnants of TD1-E From the east Pacific) and leftovers from the moisture associated with Colin in the western Caribbean. Neither of which appears to be strong enough to do much with shear increasing again in that area. Colin managed to form in a weak spot in the shear, but was still greatly affected by the shear all around it. These areas don't have that going for them, so nothing is expected to develop for the next week or so.

Typical areas in June to watch are in the extreme Western Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, concentrated around the area where Colin formed, and just east of the Southeast coast (Where Bonnie formed). If anything were to develop from the leftovers of Colin, it would likely be east of the coast and stay offshore. But even that is not very likely. There is also an area near the western tip of Cuba worth watching.

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

94 L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 94L


stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Latest Meteorologist Blog - See More Blogs...
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Ed Dunham

Does A Preseason Storm Suggest A Busy Season?

Posted: 01:26 PM 04 July 2016
The short answer is 'not necessarily'. By established definition, the Atlantic Hurricane season (which is more properly the Atlantic Tropical Cyclone season) begins on June 1st and ends on November 30th. The total number of Tropical Storms (including Subtropical Storms) and Hurricanes are recorded for the calendar year. Preseason Tropical Storms and Hurricanes - activity prior to June 1st - and post season events during December are included in the annual totals, but using a Calendar Year to determine seasonal activity does have some flaws from a meteorological perspective. The rare Tropical Storms and Hurricanes that occur in January and February are recorded as preseason early activity for the current year but these events are really post-season events, i.e., they represent an extension of the meteorological conditions that prevailed during the previous calendar year.

If you examine all of the years that recorded a preseason event, some of them must be discarded. The February storm in 1952 and the January storm in 1978 were post-season events of the prior year. (Note that in 2016, Hurricane Alex (January) was a 2015 post-season storm, but TS Bonnie (May) qualifies 2016 as a preseason year.) In 1916 and 1934, the storms in May were later reclassified as extratropical systems. In 1997 the system defined on May 31st did not become a tropical cyclone (actually a TS) until June 1st so it really wasn't a preseason event. Finally in 2007 the first storm in May was reclassified as extratropical and the second system on May 31st did not become a TS until June 1st.

1887 and 2012 had two storms in May and 1908 had one storm in March (probably the 1908 season rather than the previous year) and one storm in May. 1992 and 2003 each had a storm in April and 16 other seasons had a preseason storm in May (1865, 1889, 1890, 1932, 1933, 1940, 1948, 1951, 1953, 1959, 1970, 1972, 1976, 1981, 2008 and 2015). Therefore in the 165 seasons from 1851 through 2015 there were 21 of them that had preseason activity - which is 12.7 percent of all seasons. The average storm totals for those 21 seasons: 11.2 named storms, 6 hurricanes - 2 of which became major hurricanes (Cat III or greater). Six of those seasons ended up with 10-12 named storms (an average season); 8 of those seasons had 9 named storms or less (a quieter season); 7 of those seasons had 13 named storms or more (an active season). From a climatological standpoint, a preseason storm has no impact on what the final seasonal numbers will be. Even in the 51 years of the satellite era, the 9 preseasons averaged 11.6 named storms with 3 seasons of normal activity, 3 seasons of below normal activity and 3 seasons of above normal activity.
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