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#Fred Becomes a Hurricane Moving Through Cape Verde Islands. Central Pacific Still on Fire #flhurricane.com
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 424 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3598 (9 y 10 m) (Wilma)
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Trough of Erika wringing out. Hurricane Fred lashes Cape Verdes.

Posted: 06:01 AM 30 August 2015 | 4 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 12:09 PM 31-Aug EDT

3:00 AM 31 August Update
Fred has continued to intensify overnight, becoming the second hurricane of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Hurricane conditions are approaching or occurring throughout the Cape Verde Islands this morning - an incredibly rare occurrence.

Ex-Erika's chances are down to zero for regeneration as not much of it is left.

2:30 PM 30 August Update
Fred is quickly approaching hurricane status and Hurricane Warnings are now up for the Cape Verde islands. If a Hurricane Fred goes over the Cape Verde, it would only be the 3rd recorded time a hurricane has crossed the island.

Cape Verde Webcam Record of Fred Approach

Erika's chances have dropped to near nil for regeneration, the upper level low has mostly moved on so the remainder of rain will be bandy, and mostly in south Florida until later tonight.

Original Update


The Erika remnants being tracked as Invest 90L have blown up some big convection overnight between Cuba and South Florida. These remnants have been trying to reorganize some, and there now appears to be two distinct vorticity maxima along this trough, one near the Keys, and the other over or just south of central Cuba.

While NHC puts the odds of redevelopment into a Tropical Cyclone at a rather low 30%, many of the effects will and have been the same (heavy to locally very heavy and potentially flooding thunderstorm rains, strong wind gusts, and possibly isolated waterspouts/weak tornadoes).

In addition to x-Erika in the western Atlantic, Tropical Storm Fred has formed just southeast of the Cape Verde Islands, which is now under a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch. Fred is forecast to track northwest, and then turn west-northwesterly. More about Fred: FRED LOUNGE

Meanwhile in the Pacific, two large and major hurricanes are on courses causing some concern in the Hawaiian Islands - certainly a trend this year. More about Ignacio HERE (IGNACIO LOUNGE), and Jimena HERE (JIMENA LOUNGE).

Erika & Fred Links

Florida Radar Recording of Erika Approach

Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Radar Recording of Erika Approach

flhurricane Cuba Radar Recording of Erika approach

flhurricane East Caribbean Radar Recording of Erika approach

flhurricane San Juan, PR Radar Recording of Erika approach

90L (Ex-Erika) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 90L


stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 90L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 90L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 90L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 90L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 90L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Erika Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Erika


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Erika (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Erika (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Erika

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Erika
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Erika -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Fred Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Fred


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Fred (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Fred (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Fred

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Fred
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Fred -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

Tampa Area Media:

Bay News 9

WFLA News 8 (NBC)

Bay Action News (ABC)

WTSP Channel 10 (CBS)

My Fox Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay Times

Tampa Bay Online
News Media (East Central Florida):

Television:

Newspapers:

News Radio:

Check local media and officials when a storm is approaching your area.
News Media (South Florida):

Television:

Newspapers:

News Radio:

Check local media and officials when a storm is approaching your area.

Florida Power Outage Maps

Duke Energy Florida Outage Map - Most of Central and Northern Florida

Florida Power and Light Outage Map (Much of South Florida)

Orlando Utilities Commision Outage Map

Tampa Electric Outage Map

JEA (Jacksonville) Outage Map

Gulf Power (Western Panhandle)

Clay Electric Outage Map (Gainsville/ North Central Florida area)

Lakeland Electric Outage Map

Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Hawaiian Media:

TV:

KITV 4 - Honolulu (ABC)

KHON 2 - Honolulu (Fox)

Hawaii News Now KGMB 9 (CBS)/KHNL 13 (NBC)

Newspaper:

Hawaii 24/7 (Big Island Newspaper)

Hawaii Tribune-Herald

Maui News

Honolulu Star Advertiser

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Erika Officially Dissipates, but Moving Inland

Posted: 08:07 AM 29 August 2015 | 23 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 01:24 AM 30-Aug EDT

1 AM 30 August 2015 Update
It appears that Erica's most recently tracked remnant LLC is now making "landfall" along the keys near Marathon tonight, prompting a Special Marine Warning for showers and thunderstorms capable of producing winds of 34 knots or greater. These showers and storms are pushing inland while spinning northeast to southwest in a cyclonic fashion around the small remnant CoC.

Old Erika LLC will likely soon merge with the boundary draped over the state, and continue to produce heavy to locally very heavy rains w/ potentially strong to severe winds.
Ciel



2 PM 29 August 2015 Update
The regeneration chance for Erika is about 40%

From the Tropical Weather Outlook:

The remnants of Erika, a trough of low pressure, are currently located near central Cuba and the central
Bahamas and moving west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph.

This system is producing disorganized thunderstorm activity, and recent satellite wind data indicate it is producing winds to tropical storm force. Upper-level winds are currently not favorable for re-development of the system into a tropical cyclone. However, conditions may become more conducive Sunday or Monday while it moves northwestward to northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of re-development, the remnants of Erika are expected to spread locally heavy rains and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas, central and eastern Cuba, and central and southern Florida during the next couple of days.

10:AM 29 August 2015 Update
Erika has been downgraded to a low pressure trough just north of Cuba.

Interests in the Bahamas, eastern and central Cuba, and southern and Central Florida should monitor the progress of the remnants of Erika for heavy rainfall and a small chance of regeneration once away from Cuba.

9AM 29 August 2015 Update
Erika has dissipated as a tropical cyclone, and the National Hurricane Center is going to issue a Special Advisory shortly. Tropical storm watches/warnings being discontinued.

Florida will still likely get rain from the remnants of it.

Original Update
At the 8AM National Hurricane Center Advisory, they comment that suggests Erika may be dissipating now.

With a large split in the energy and an uncertain center, (may be more of an trough now) the system could have its last advisory at 11AM. However, recon is still finding decent SMFR indicated winds at 40mph.

The adjusted their original 5AM position to match what the visible satellite showed this morning, putting it just north of extreme eastern Cuba.



This will make the "cone" east again when they update at 11 if it were to maintain itself. The reason it is so "lopsided" at 8AM is that they only update their forecast track every 6 hours. 5AM, 11AM, 5PM and 11PM. In between they just update the storms current position and warnings Sometimes you wind up with really odd track maps, like the current one, because of center reformation.

Hopefully the end of Erika is near, and Hispaniola has claimed another system. Unfortunately this also means extreme flooding in Haiti.

However the 8am position does indicate the potential for a lot of rain for Florida starting late Sunday into Monday/Tuesday.

Also in the far eastern Atlantic, 99L is being tracked, and may actually go over the Cape Verde islands.

And 10 years ago this morning, Hurricane Katrina made landfall near Buras, LA.


Erika Links

Florida Radar Recording of Erika Approach

Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Radar Recording of Erika Approach

flhurricane Cuba Radar Recording of Erika approach

flhurricane East Caribbean Radar Recording of Erika approach


flhurricane San Juan, PR Radar Recording of Erika approach

90L (Ex-Erika) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 90L


stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 90L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 90L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 90L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 90L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 90L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Erika Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Erika


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Erika (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Erika (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Erika

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Erika
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Erika -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


99L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 99L


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 99L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

Tampa Area Media:

Bay News 9

WFLA News 8 (NBC)

Bay Action News (ABC)

WTSP Channel 10 (CBS)

My Fox Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay Times

Tampa Bay Online
News Media (East Central Florida):

Television:

Newspapers:

News Radio:

Check local media and officials when a storm is approaching your area.
News Media (South Florida):

Television:

Newspapers:

News Radio:

Check local media and officials when a storm is approaching your area.

Florida Power Outage Maps

Duke Energy Florida Outage Map - Most of Central and Northern Florida

Florida Power and Light Outage Map (Much of South Florida)

Orlando Utilities Commision Outage Map

Tampa Electric Outage Map

JEA (Jacksonville) Outage Map

Gulf Power (Western Panhandle)

Clay Electric Outage Map (Gainsville/ North Central Florida area)

Lakeland Electric Outage Map


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A Very Weak Erika Still in the Caribbean?

Posted: 10:46 PM 24 August 2015 | 78 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 08:10 AM 29-Aug EDT

8 AM EDT 29 Aug 2015 Update
NHC 8AM Advisory updates with comments that suggest Erika may be dissipating now. With a large split in the energy and an uncertain center, (may be more of an trough now) the system could have its last advisory at 11AM. On the flip side recon is still finding decent SMFR winds and just barely started to investigate the system.

The official center is now north of the island to match the circulation visible on satellite, which would shift the "cone" east again if it were to maintain itself.

Hopefully the end of Erika is near, and Hispaniola has claimed another system. Unfortunately this also means extreme flooding in Haiti.

7 AM EDT 29 Aug 2015 Update
Erika is officially still in the Caribbean this morning, with the highly uncertain official center south of the eastern tip of Cuba. It remains a highly unorganized tropical system, fairly weak now and may weaken to a depression later.

On the current forecast track no watches will likely be issued for south Florida, but there may still be some rain along the west coast with that track.

Recon is on their way this morning to attempt to find a better center fix, as the current one may be suspect.
The forecast track remains highly uncertain.

99L is now being tracked, and it may affect the Cape Verde islands directly.

10 years ago this morning, Hurricane Katrina made landfall near Buras, LA.

5:30AM EDT 28 Aug 2015 Update
Erika is barely recognizable as a tropical cyclone this morning, and may devolve into an open wave at some point today. Despite this, a large area of 40 to 50MPH winds exists at the surface to the east and southeast of the alleged center, and flooding rains are occurring over the eastern Caribbean.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for:.
* Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic * Haiti* Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:
* Northwestern Bahamas

8:30AM EDT 27 Aug 2015 Update
Tropical Storm Watches are now up for the Central Southeastern Bahamas (Turks and Caicos) as well as more portions otf the Dominican Republic.

Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic from the northern border with Haiti eastward
and southward to Isla Saona
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque
* Central Bahamas

Erika is moving generally west tonight as recon is out there sampling Erika. It is expected to move more towards the west northwest soon. It may cross portions of the Dominican Republic.

The forecast track still takes it very close or over parts of Florida after crossing the Bahamas, but there remains a large degree of uncertainty i n the track and intensity of Erika at that time. Watches may be issues for portions of Florida Tomorrow night if the track holds.

11AM EDT 27 Aug 2015 Update
11AM forecast track has a discussion which Pasch states as "Unusually Uncertain" because of the complexities of a reforming Erika, potential land interaction, and model flip flopping. It reads like they punted on the forecast track until they can regroup with new data. Still nothing certain here, it could likely keep shifting west.

The current NHC forcast has Erika crawling painfully slowly just off the east Florida coast.


9AM EDT 27 Aug 2015 Update
Tropical Storm Erika remains weak this morning, and recon has found the center reformed to the south a bit, which will likely greatly change the forecast track to the west, and may force it over Hispaniola, which could weaken or dissipate the system. Expect the forecast cone to move left at 11AM.

Erika currently is bringing flooded rains to the island of Dominica.

4PM EDT 26 Aug 2015 Update



Like Danny before her, Erika is running into progressively greater directional shear as she gets closer to the Leewards, with the low level center now essentially void of deep convection, which has been displaced to the south and east. This shunting of the CDO has now allowed the dry air surrounding her to begin working in, and recon is finding the cyclone in a weakened state.

Despite the exposed center, lower winds, and higher minimum pressure, Erika is still tracking west-northwesterly. On this course the cyclone, or what is left of it should shear take more of a toll, could avoid the tallest terrain of the islands, but possibly not the regions of greatest shear ahead.

6AM EDT 26 Aug 2015 Update



New Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, and the British Virgin Islands.

WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT:
Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands.



Deep convection flared up with Erika overnight, and the cyclone appears to be entering an intensification phase, with the most recent satellite images showing very deep convection atop the estimated center of circulation. Given current trends, model runs depicting a stronger, more resilient Erika should be looked at closely.

In addition to Erika, once again the Hawaiian Islands are eyeing yet another potential impact from a tropical cyclone during that basin's extraordinarily active season. More on this latest threat in the Tropical Storm Ignacio Forecast Lounge

Not a time to panic yet, but those along the east coast of Florida, particularly South Florida, should take care of any loose ends in the hurricane plan before any potential rush.

11 PM 25 Aug 2015 Update
Tropical Storm Watches are now up for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.

Erika is holding as a minimal Tropical Storm, the convection mostly sheared off south of the center still. The NHC currently forecasts a Hurricane over the Bahamas in 5 days, but with the caveat of a high degree of uncertainty of track and strength. Lixion Avila, a forecaster at the National Hurricane Center, mentions that Erika could even dissipate while over the northeastern Caribbean. Any real chance to strengthen depends on if it survives and makes it near the Bahamas.



That said, within the last hour a significant burst of convection has shown up on satellite near or just west of the center.

5 PM 25 Aug 2015 Update
Erika is holding as a tropical Storm. The 5PM forecast track forecasts Erika to be a hurricane Sunday afternoon over Grand Bahama west of Nassau. The forecast is highly uncertain, with much disparity in the models.

This does, however, put parts of south Florida in the cone.

11:00 AM 25 Aug 2015 Update
Tropical Strom Watches now up Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy.

7:30 AM 25 Aug 2015 Update
Those in the northeast Caribbean, Bahamas, Florida and the Southeast United States should closely monitor the progression of Erika.

The National Hurricane Center is now forecasting Erika to be a hurricane and crossing over the Bahamas this weekend after scraping near or over the Northeastern Leewards Thursday.

This places it in a position to potentially recurve or hit Florida (or elsewhere in the southeast) next week as a hurricane (possibly Major), so it will be very important to keep watch over this system as there are lots of uncertainties with the future track of Erika. A lot will depend on how strong, and when Erika gets.

Erika's appearance is weaker today, and has an exposed center of circulation, conditions generally will be unfavorable for the next few days before it reaches better conditions. it is forecast to reach hurricane intensity on Saturday.

Tropical Storm watches for the islands are up : Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, Anguilla,
Saba, St. Eustatius



Parts of the Bahamas may have hurricane watches up later in the week.

Original Update


Invest 98L, the large and vigorous tropical wave following on the heels of Danny, has been determined to have developed sufficient organization for the NHC to begin advisories on our fifth tropical cyclone of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. As 05L already has had winds at or above the 40MPH threshold today, the first advisory reflects this as well, and we are now tracking Tropical Storm Erika.

Erika is forecast to gradually intensify while tracking west-northwest, and begin feeling a pull more to the northwest later in the period.



In addition to Tropical Storm Erika, we are still keeping an eye on Danny's remnants for any signs that it may try to reorganize, but the odds are not in his favor, and the remnant low is most likely just bringing much needed rain showers and a few storms to the northern Caribbean, which has been suffering through a drought.

Out in Hawaii, Kilo is still weak and tracking generally well west of earlier forecasts, with the risk of a direct impact on the main islands continuing to decline.

Erika Links

Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Radar Recording of Erika Approach

flhurricane Cuba Radar Recording of Erika approach

flhurricane East Caribbean Radar Recording of Erika approach


flhurricane San Juan, PR Radar Recording of Erika approach

Erika Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Erika


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Erika (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Erika (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Erika

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Erika
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Erika -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


99L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 99L


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 99L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -


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Danny Fades as Another Storm Brews

Posted: 09:11 AM 24 August 2015 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 05:38 PM 24-Aug EDT

11:00 AM EDT 24 August 2015 Update
Danny has degenerated this morning into a remnant low. Redevelopment is very unlikely, but Danny's remnants will continue to produce much appreciated showers along its track through the Caribbean.

Ciel

Danny has weakened into a Tropical Depression as the shear over the Caribbean took its toll. IT will be trackable for a few more days before likely dissipating. The remnants will be worth watching to see if anything kicks up later, but the chances for that happening are extremely low.

East of Danny, another storm, 98L likely will form into a depression and eventually Erika. It will likely follow a similar path (and fate) to Danny, but it likely will be a larger system so it will be important to watch over the next few days. East of that there is a third system we may have to watch later this week.

Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings will begin to be cancelled now that Danny has weakened so much.


Danny Links
flhurricane Antilles Radar Recording of Danny approach

flhurricane East Caribbean Radar Recording of Danny approach

Danny Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Danny


stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Danny (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Danny (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Danny

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Danny
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Danny -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Invest 98L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 98L


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 98L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 98L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 98L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 98L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 98L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Since Danny is a long track storm, make sure to check out the Danny Forecast Lounge for talk about long range model runs and guesses at where and when it may go along with how strong.

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Info for Kilo near Hawaii

Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Hawaiian Media:

TV:

KITV 4 - Honolulu (ABC)

KHON 2 - Honolulu (Fox)

Hawaii News Now KGMB 9 (CBS)/KHNL 13 (NBC)

Newspaper:

Hawaii 24/7 (Big Island Newspaper)

Hawaii Tribune-Herald

Maui News

Honolulu Star Advertiser

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Hurricane Danny forms in the Central Atlantic

Posted: 10:19 AM 18 August 2015 | 38 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 10:05 AM 23-Aug EDT

11:00 PM EDT 23 August 2015 Update
Tropical Storm watches are now up for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.

Danny is much weaker today, but seems to be holding at a 50mph tropical storm. The center of circulation is exposed, but convection continues to fire vigorously on the northeast quadrant. An unusually high amount of lightning can also be found in the system. It is still forecast to weaken, but storms of this small size can pull surprises.



8:00 PM EDT 22 August 2015 Update

Above: Danny is being overtaken by very dry air

Shear and dry air are starting to take a very significant toll on Danny. Over the past several hours recon has found no indications of hurricane force winds at the surface, and the 8PM Advisory now shows a - possibly generous - 65MPH tropical storm. Given the current drying trend, Danny will need to take advantage of the cooler atmosphere overnight to hopefully refire convection and build up some defenses, or could become a remnant low by this time tomorrow.

Given that the LLC is now exposed and the cyclone is in the process of becoming decoupled, the track is taking more of a due west if not west-southwest heading. Regardless of the near-term, Danny will likely still bring much needed rains and some blustery winds to the islands ahead.
Ciel

2:00 PM EDT 21 August 2015 Update
Recon has confirmed that Danny became a Major Hurricane today, and NHC has put out a 2PM update with advisory winds of 115MPH and a central pressure of 974mb. Shear and dry air are already starting to affect the micro-sized hurricane, and mostly weakening is now forecast for the next five days.

With luck, Danny's winds decline substantially, but the cyclone still brings much needed rains to the islands ahead.
Ciel

7:00AM EDT 21 August 2015 Update
Danny continues its course, official an 85MPH hurricane (Potentially stronger). It's core is very visible on satellite and very small.





Dry air and shear should begin to affect Danny Saturday afternoon and especially Sunday.

The Leeward islands of the Caribbean should continue to watch this system.

Research aircraft are scheduled to be out there this afternoon and air force recon are scheduled to be out there tomorrow afternoon.

11:00AM EDT 20 August 2015 Update
Tropical Storm Danny has been upgraded to Hurricane Danny.



97L is also being tracked off the east coast, and another wave off Africa has a 20% chance to develop over the next 5 days.

Folks in the northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico and Hispaniola should continue to monitor the progress of Hurricane Danny over the weekend.

9:30AM EDT 20 August 2015 Update
Tropical Storm Danny struggled most of yesterday with dry air intrusion along with a small core. On the flipside the small core allows things like the image below shows:



This is quite a drastic difference in the last few hours as Danny has started intensifying somewhat rapidly. 992 mb is the new estimate, and it appears an eye is developing, all within the last few hours.


Those in the Caribbean islands should watch Danny closely, but the system is still expected to hit a wall of shear once in the Caribbean and greatly weaken or dissipate.


Original Update
The system being tracked as TD4 has become this season's fourth Tropical Storm, and the first Cape Verde system to organize this year.

The National Hurricane Center will be initiating advisories on the system at 5 PM EDT.



The system is forecast to become a category 2 hurricane by Sunday. The name is Danny. And if the forecast is correct, it would be the most southerly hurricane to form since Tomas in 2010.

93C near Hawaii is also worth watching there.

flhurricane Antilles Radar Recording of Danny approach

flhurricane East Caribbean Radar Recording of Danny approach

Danny Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Danny


stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Danny (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Danny (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Danny

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Danny
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Danny -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Invest 98L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 98L


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 98L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 98L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 98L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 98L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 98L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Since Danny is a long track storm, make sure to check out the Danny Forecast Lounge for talk about long range model runs and guesses at where and when it may go along with how strong.

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Info for Kilo near Hawaii

Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Hawaiian Media:

TV:

KITV 4 - Honolulu (ABC)

KHON 2 - Honolulu (Fox)

Hawaii News Now KGMB 9 (CBS)/KHNL 13 (NBC)

Newspaper:

Hawaii 24/7 (Big Island Newspaper)

Hawaii Tribune-Herald

Maui News

Honolulu Star Advertiser

Latest Meteorologist Blog - See More Blogs...
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Ed Dunham

The Erika Enigma

Posted: 05:57 PM 27 August 2015
At 27/17Z, TS Erika was located at 16.5N 63.5W and at 27/19Z Erika was located at 16.6N 63.6W - pretty much a dead stop, i.e., slow drift to the northwest, however at 27/21Z the center was located at 16.8N 63.8W - still moving to the northwest but the forward speed is increasing. With convection displaced to the southeast, positions were easy to determine based on the exposed, but still well formed, LLCC. As noted elsewhere, convection was firing on the eastern edge of the center but it is now firing over most of the center and the displacement continues to the east and southeast.

Over the past couple of days the forecast models have been of very little help in determining both the future intensity and the forecast track of this sheared tropical cyclone - both the early and the long range models have been all over the place with this system. Some of this erratic model output has surfaced in the NHC forecast which at times has seemed to be just as erratic, but if you live by the model.... To be fair, they have to come up with something every six hours whereas we have no such requirement.

When dealing with the tropics there are times (frequent times actually) when persistence is not only the best solution but often the only realistic solution so before I chastise the NHC too harshly I'll wait awhile and see how this all plays out. When forecasting hurricanes, the hardest thing to do is to have patience - when something is expected to happen but it doesn't, if you force yourself to wait a little longer the event that you expected, i.e., a turn to the northwest or something like that, eventually will. In other words the forecast idea was generally pretty good, but the timing was off.

Where is Erika likely to go - and will Erika survive to do it? Right now there are many options and all of them are realistic based on where the tropical cyclone is and what the environment looks like and how that environment is expected to evolve. Erika could get sheared apart and become an open wave. Erika could hit Puerto Rico and fall apart or survive and just miss Hispaniola. Erika could hit Hispaniola and end the storm track. Which one is the likely solution? Right now I have no firm idea - so I'll be patient for a little while longer. At Erika's current speed I certainly have enough time to do that. Erika still has to deal with a significant amount of windshear but, since the shear is primarily in the upper levels of the atmosphere, the system has been dealing with the shear rather well so far and it will probably continue to do so as long as the LLCC remains intact.
ED
17.9N 25.2W
Wind: 70MPH
Pres: 995mb
Moving:
Nw at 12 mph
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