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Eresto Staying out to Sea. 99L is a low development chance (20%) system approaching the eastern Caribbean.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 313 (Nate) , Major: 330 (Maria) Florida - Any: 340 (Irma) Major: 340 (Irma)
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Atlantic Slowly Reawakening as Heart of Season Nears

Posted: 04:27 PM 10 August 2018 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 04:49 PM 10-Aug EDT

2PM AST Update 12 Aug 2018
As expected, a non-tropical low has formed in the north-central Atlantic and is showing some signs of being able to transition into a sub-trop or tropical cyclone. This system is now being tracked as an Invest, 98L, but is no threat to the Americas while it meanders over the subtropical Atlantic.

Elsewhere, the weak disturbance between the Caribbean and Africa has been decimated and is now given a near-zero chance of developing.
Ciel


Original Entry


The climatological heart of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is now just about a week away, generally thought of as mid-August trough mid-October, and while 2018 is expected by most specialists to end up with far fewer named storms, hurricanes and majors than last year, "it only takes one." Now, while it is still quiet, is a great time to do hurricane preparedness, so when the peak does come, and if a significant storm approaches, there will be less to worry about.



And all is not quiet. As of today, August 10, NHC is now focusing on two features. One, an expected development of a non-tropical low out in the central Atlantic that could acquire sub-tropical or tropical status much like pre-Debby did. This feature should not be a threat to the Americas. The other, a disturbance located about midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, could slowly develop next week as it travels west-northwest towards the Caribbean.

Subtropical Depression Five Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of SubTD 5 - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of SubTD 5


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of SubTD 5 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of SubTD 5 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of SubTD 5

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for SubTD 5
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on SubTD 5 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Invest 99L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 99L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 99L


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 99L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

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Hector Tracking Hawaii too Close for Comfort in Pac. Debby Spins Fish in Atl.

Posted: 10:05 PM 02 August 2018 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 02:37 PM 06-Aug EDT

1PM Update 7 Aug 2018
Invest 97L has become Sub-Tropical Storm Debby out in the north-central Atlantic. Debby is is expected to be short-lived and unlikely to affect land as a named cyclone.
-Ciel


9AM update 4 August 2018
Hurricane Hector is likely to stay south of the Hawaiian islands, but is close enough to feel some effects from rough surf, it should be monitored over the next week.

Invest 97L is out in the central Atlantic but likely to not affect land, it has a 20% chance for development.


Original Update

August has started and the Atlantic basin is quiet, which is fairly usual for the start of August, things typically don't get going until mid to late August, and that seems to be the case this year.

However, in the Pacific, Hurricane Hector has increased to 110mph winds tonight, and the official forecast is starting to close in near Hawaii. Flhurricane normally does not discuss systems outside of the Atlantic since we don't have as many tools available, but we do make exceptions for any Hawaii threats.

The Current 5 day forecast keeps Hector as a Major Category 3 hurricane southeast of the Big Island, and some models project it may get closer mid to late next week (See the forecast lounge for details on that) However, some of the models keep it south of Hawaii, so it's in the monitoring state right now, but with a few of the models taking it over or near Hawaii it's time to start watching it. Odds are it stays south of Hawaii, however.

This will likely change some as the days progress, but it is important to watch into next week. If it approaches Hawaii next week, it will likely weakening (slowly) as it approaches, however. the threat to the Big Island is irritated by the active lava flows in the Puna region, and the non-native extremely tall and brittle Albizia trees are very susceptible to being blown over in even moderate Tropical Storm force winds.



We'll be monitoring it and update if the threat increases or not, since the timeframe for landfall (if it were to occur) would be mid to late next week, there are no cones showing approach. By this weekend there may be a better idea of it, and much more of one early next week. Those in the Big Island, and Maui should keep tabs of the system.

Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Hawaiian Media:

TV:

KITV 4 - Honolulu (ABC)

KHON 2 - Honolulu (Fox)

Hawaii News Now KGMB 9 (CBS)/KHNL 13 (NBC)

Newspaper:

Hawaii 24/7 (Big Island Newspaper)

Hawaii Tribune-Herald

Maui News

Honolulu Star Advertiser

Other:

Big Island News Now

Hawaii Tracker Big Island News

Invest 97L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 97L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 97L


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 97L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 97L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 97L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 97L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 97L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

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Hurricanes Chris, Beryl and More

Posted: 02:52 PM 10 July 2018 | 2 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 01:33 PM 13-Jul EDT



An active month of July continues, with recon now finding Chris a hurricane. Fortunately, nearly all reliable guidance takes Hurricane Chris north-northeast to northeast away from the U.S., but the cyclone could continue to produce some serious rip current risks along the eastern seaboard.

Another Low to the northeast of Chris is weak, and significant development is not expected, although it could have some influence on the path Chris takes.

Southeast of Chris, the low pressure remains of former Hurricane Beryl continue struggling, but a new mid-level center may be trying to form along the northern portion of this trough. Interests in the region should continue to monitor this disturbance closely, and stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center for updates. NHC odds of 20% within 48 hours/50% within 5 days, and these odds could be going up.

Finally, way, way, way out in the Tropical Atlantic, an active portion of the ITCZ is worth keeping an eye on, as despite Sea Surface Temps running well below average in the Tropical Atlantic so far this seasaon, African Easterly Waves have been busier and friskier than usual.

For Chris model talk and more check out the Hurricane Chris Lounge

For more Beryl model talk, go beyond the cone with us in the Beryl Lounge.


Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

Canadian Hurricane Centre

Beryl Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Beryl - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Beryl


stormplotthumb_2.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float2latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Beryl (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Beryl (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Beryl

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Beryl
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Beryl -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Chris Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Chris - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Chris


stormplotthumb_3.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float3latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Chris (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Chris (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Chris

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Chris
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Chris -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Eastern NC/OBX/Hampton Roads Media:

Star News Online (Wilmington)

Outer Banks Sentinel

Hampton Roads Pilot

WWAY TV 3 Wilmington, NC (ABC)

WECT TV 6 Wilmington, NC (NBC)

Fox Wilmington (FOX)

WILM TV 10 Wilmington, NC (CBS)

WITN 7 - Eastern North Carolina TV (NBC)

WCTI 12 - Eastern North Carolina (ABC)

WNCT TV 9 - Eastern North Carolina (CBS)

Wavy 10 (NBC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA TV

WTKR 3 (CBS) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA

WVEC 13 (ABC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA

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Tropical Storms Beryl & Chris

Posted: 07:50 PM 03 July 2018 | 8 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 10:22 PM 08-Jul EDT

4AM EDT Update 8 July 2018
TD3 has become Tropical Storm Chris. Chris is expected to become a hurricane, and possibly a formidable one, while over the Gulf Stream.

Beryl has been re-firing convection overnight in response to some westerly shear. Sometimes this can help a fledgling tropical cyclone get itself together (or together again, in the case of Beryl), and so deserves to be monitored. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should still prepare for tropical storm conditions possibly affecting some portion or portions of the islands later tonight and/or Monday.
-Ciel



4:30PM EDT Update 6 July 2018
Invest 96L has become TD 3 a few hundred miles southeast of the North Carolina coast. The cyclone may pull up nearly stationary, or just meander, and cook, over anomalously warm waters in this region for several days. A potential significant threat if it turns toward the U.S., and needs to be watched.
- Ciel

11AM EDT Update 6 July 2018
Beryl is gaining strength today and its small size has insulated it from a lot of the negative effects. The official forecast now keeps it a hurricane into the East Caribbean before weakening in the Caribbean.

Hurricane watches could be required for some islands in the Lesser Antilles by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds are likely to begin over some of the islands by Sunday evening.

Meanwhile 96L near the NC coast could form this weekend or early next week.

Those in the Lesser Antilles should now pay very close attention to Beryl, and those in North Carolina should be monitoring the wave 96L closely.

5AM EDT Update 6 July 2018


Tiny Tropical Cyclone Beryl becomes Hurricane Beryl, the first Hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season, while at a very south latitude in the Tropical Atlantic.

Elsewhere, recently Invest-tagged 96L off the southeast U.S. continues organizing, and may get listed as a Potential Tropical Cyclone, TD, or even a named storm as soon as later today, perhaps necessitating Watches and/or Warnings along parts of the east coast over the weekend and/or early next week.

For in-depth Beryl model talk and more, go beyond the cone with us in the Hurricane Beryl Lounge.

For 96L model talk and more check out the Invest 96L Lounge

-Ciel

Eastern NC/OBX/Hampton Roads Media:

Star News Online (Wilmington)

Outer Banks Sentinel

Hampton Roads Pilot

WWAY TV 3 Wilmington, NC (ABC)

WECT TV 6 Wilmington, NC (NBC)

Fox Wilmington (FOX)

WILM TV 10 Wilmington, NC (CBS)

WITN 7 - Eastern North Carolina TV (NBC)

WCTI 12 - Eastern North Carolina (ABC)

WNCT TV 9 - Eastern North Carolina (CBS)

Wavy 10 (NBC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA TV

WTKR 3 (CBS) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA

WVEC 13 (ABC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

2:30PM EDT Update 5 July 2018
Tropical Depression Two becomes Tropical Storm Beryl.

Noon Update 5 July 2018
Tropical Depression two forms in the East Atlantic, but expected to dissipate before reaching the Caribbean.

Original Update
The Atlantic Tropics are starting to show some signs of life this July, although nothing is an imminent threat to land.

First an area southeast of Bermuda that has a low, 20% chance to develop, but would remain out to sea.

Another is the area in the East Atlantic, being tracked as 95L tonight, this also has a 20% chance to develop, but will run against some unfavorable conditions.later in the week, however ultimately it may develop beyond that, so its worth watching, some models turn it into a tropical storm next week..

July expands the area we watch for development, but typically activity doesn't pick up to a serious degree until mid to late August. However, July storms can happen so we'll be watching.

Activity in the Atlantic has been fairly sparse so far this year, with the Pacific being much more active, a sign that El Nino may be a factor this year.

Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

Beryl Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Beryl - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Beryl


stormplotthumb_2.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float2latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Beryl (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Beryl (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Beryl

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Beryl
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Beryl -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Chris Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Chris - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Chris


stormplotthumb_3.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float3latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Chris (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Chris (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Chris

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Chris
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Chris -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)






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Atlantic Hurricane Season 2018 Officially Begins

Posted: 07:02 AM 01 June 2018 | | Add Comment

Today marks the first day of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane season, which runs intil November 30th.
Last year, Harvey, Irma, Maria, Nate, the 4 hurricanes that hit the United States last year will be remembered. The first three, Harvey, Irma, and Maria were the trio that broke the chain of no major us-landfalling hurricanes for 11 years prior. These affected the areas they hit greatly.

Rockport, Texas by the wind, and much of eastern Texas from the flooding rains. Harvey was retired and will remain a strong memory for many in the area.

Irma, wiping out Barbuda in the Caribbean, ST. Martin, Virgin Islands, and others, before moving into Cuba and Florida, the worst damage on the mainland being just east of Key West, FL.

Maria, first devistating the island of Dominica before tearing apart much of Puerto Rico.

This year won’t be like that, but there is no guarantee another major hurricane will not hit again, in different ways. The water temperatures are a bit cooler, and the shear is likely to be more impactful, but still the overall favorible pattern exists. Alberto was the early foray into the season, with one of the oddest sub-tropical systems that we’ve seen in a good while.

Beyond Alberto, the next area to watch is likely the West Caribbean and Gulf still (particularly in 10-12 days), then expanding into more of the Atlantic in July.

Once again we’ll be watching out in the Atlantic, and Hawaii if any storms threaten there.

This is also the first year of operational Goes-16 satellite data, which is still being integrated into various websites.

Remember, this site (and others like it) should just supplement, but not replace the official sources.

Be Hurricane prepared!

Sales Tax Holiday

This year Florida has a Hurricane Supply Sales Tax Holiday running June 1-7, 2018

This Includes reusable ice packs $10 or less.

$20 or less flashlights, lanters, cancles.

$25 or less: Any gas or diesel fuel container, including LP gas and kerosene containers

$30 or less: Batteries, including rechargeable batteries, excluding automobile and boat
Coolers and ice chests (food-storage; nonelectrical)

$50 or less: tarps, Visqueen, plastic sheeting, plastic drop cloths, and other flexible waterproof sheeting
Ground anchor systems, Tie-down kits, Bungee cords, Ratchet straps, Radios (powered by battery, solar, or hand-crank)
Two-way, Weather band

and Portable Generators Selling for $750 or less.


Invest 91L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 91L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 91L


stormplotthumb_2.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float2latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 91L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 91L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 91L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 91L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 91L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Facebook Update Posted
04:35 pm 16-Aug-2018 EDT

Storm Upgraded:Subtropical Storm #ERNESTO toTropical Storm #ERNESTO 43.0N 41.0W Wind 45MPH Moving NE at 18 MPH https://t.co/0wuYNsM6Wu

Facebook Update Posted
09:45 pm 15-Aug-2018 EDT

Eresto Staying out to Sea. 99L is a low development chance (20%) system approaching the eastern Caribbean.

Facebook Update Posted
01:16 pm 15-Aug-2018 EDT

Subtropical Storm Ernesto forms in the Central N. Atlantic, no threat to land areas.

Facebook Update Posted
05:39 am 15-Aug-2018 EDT

Subtropical Depression 5 forms in the Central Atlantic from 98L, no threat to land areas.

Facebook Update Posted
03:02 am 15-Aug-2018 EDT

#98L becoming a fully Sub-Tropical Cyclone and may be named later this morning, but no threat to US land as it heads NE over cooling waters

Facebook Update Posted
01:47 pm 12-Aug-2018 EDT

Weak #98L in the far north Atlantic no threat to U.S. Atlantic basin looking very El Nino-like. Mostly quiet.

44.1N 38.9W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
Ne at 22 mph
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