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The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane season is over. 2015's run June 1st-Nov 30th, 2015.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 171 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3346 (9 y 1 m) (Wilma)
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Watching Hanna & Invest 95L

Posted: 08:48 AM 27 October 2014 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 01:04 PM 28-Oct EDT

12:30PM EDT 28 October 2014 Update
Beware the little tropical cyclone that doesn't give up the ghost. After having been declared dead, not once, but twice, the remnants of Hanna (NINE), are traveling more west-northwestward today, now offshore from the northern coast of Honduras, and the low is trying to reorganize. This feature is now being tracked as Invest 96L.

Elsewhere, just to the east of the northern Antilles, a tropical wave interacting with an upper level low just to its west is producing a large area of blustery showers. Development of this feature, if any, should initially be slow to occur given the less than ideal upper level winds at present. This feature is being tracked as Invest 95L.

Ciel

Original Entry
The tropical low pressure area in the western Caribbean, a blend of remnants from TD NINE and a frontal merger, organized overnight, and sufficient data supports that Tropical Storm Hanna has formed. Special advisory products are being issued by NHC.

Tropical Storm Force winds are occurring in the western semicircle, within a band of heavy thunderstorms, and interests along the coasts and just inland of both Nicaragua and Honduras should be taking precautions for very heavy rains and potentially damaging winds.




Ciel

97L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 97L


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 97L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 97L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 97L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 97L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 97L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)



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Invest 94L Nearing Nicaragua/Honduras. Today Marks Nine Years for Florida

Posted: 08:24 AM 26 October 2014 | | Add Comment

11PM EDT 26 October 2014 Update


Late this evening, Invest 94L broke completely free from its prior frontal merger while simultaneously encountering a very favorable environment for organization. Even though official agencies currently advertise the small-sized tropical low as 35 MPH and 1007mb, a WindSat pass from 2306Z suggested that max sustained winds may have already been stronger at that time, and since then the low has consistently pulsed up more deep convection as it nears the borders of Nicaragua and Honduras.

Even if not a tropical storm, Invest 94L has the potential to create dangerous torrential rains and be accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts as it pushes closer to and/or inland overnight.

Ciel

Original Post
Today marks nine years since the last Hurricane to make landfall in Florida, Wilma. It crossed over near Cape Romano in southwest Florida around 6 AM in the morning and tore across southern Florida and out near Ft. Lauderdale. Damaging areas there and around from a west to east storm. 2005 was also the year of Katrina, which crossed south Florida before making its way toward the Louisiana and Mississippi Gulf coasts.

Wilma also held the record low pressure for the Atlantic while it was in the Northwest Caribbean.

This year had hurricane Arthur that crossed over parts of the outer banks of North Carolina, but nothing again for Florida.

The year before Wilma was the infamous 4 storm year, but...

Since then, a few tropical storms, but no hurricanes, major or otherwise, have made landfall anywhere in Florida. And this season, with only a month to go and generally unfavorable conditions, looks to continue that record trend.

This record "hurricane drought" is unusual, but doesn't change the odds for systems in the future. It does likely keep more people complacent about being storm proof, or just not having the experience of an actual But in general the lack of hurricanes to hit has been a very good thing, and we hope it continues to 10 years next season.

Next year will mark the 20th year for Flhurricane, and nearly half of that hasn't seen any hurricanes in Florida. We plan on staying around for at least the next 10 years. Activity on the site is directly related to the storms in Florida, so the site has been stagnant for most of the drought.

94L is meandering around, and likely won't ever fully develop, just a rain event for the areas there.


94L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 94L


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

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Tropical Depression Nine Moving over the Yucatan from the West

Posted: 07:35 AM 20 October 2014 | 3 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 12:23 PM 22-Oct EDT

5AM Update 22 October 2014
Tropical Depression 9 formed from 93L late last night and is now moving generally eastward over toward the Yucatan.

A tropical storm warning is up in Mexico there from Celestun to Frontera. Beyond this it is expected to weaken over the peninsula and re-emerge int he northwest Caribbean, where it becomes a bit more muddled. It is likely to dissipate by then.

If Florida receives any part of whatever becomes of TD#9, it would likely be mid to late next week.

Original Update
Hurricane Gonzalo has transitioned into extra-tropical and the remnants are moving quickly near Scotland, and Ana has moved to the west of the Hawaiian Islands. Ana did bring a lot of rough surf and rain to the Islands. (around 5 inches to Honolulu)

It's late October, but there are two areas currently being watched in the Atlantic, one in the far eastern Atlantic, 92L is likely to remain out to sea , and only has about a 30% chance to develop.

The other one, 93L is in the Gulf in the Bay of Campeche, and also has a 30% for development over the week. The more interesting aspect of this one is that it may affect South Florida or Cuba this weekend, most likely as a rainmaker or subtropical system. It should be watched through the week.

In general the Gulf/Western Caribbean may be active over the next few weeks.

Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

94L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 94L


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Tropical Depression Nine Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD#9


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#9 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#9 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#9

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#9
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#9 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)




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Hurricane Gonzalo Slamming Bermuda

Posted: 09:07 PM 10 October 2014 | 2 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 06:59 AM 17-Oct EDT

11PM EDT Update 17 October 2014



Gonzalo passing over Bermuda, and some of the strongest winds have been on the back eye wall.

From the discussion:
The following information is provided at the request of the Bermuda
Weather Service -- damage to the old and new hospitals has been
reported, the AWOS weather sensors at the Bermuda International
Airport have been damaged due to saltwater inundation and are
inoperable, and the RCC Bermuda Radio Maritime Operations Center at
St. Georges has been damaged and is inoperable.


7AM EDT Update 17 October 2014

Hurricane Gonzalo is approaching bermuda tonight and if it maintains the forecast may bring approx 10 ft of storm surge to the island as well as extremely strong winds. Bermuda seems relatively well prepared for the system, but the worst should be late this afternoon into the early evening there.



Bermuda Newspapers/Media:

Royal Gazette (Bermuda)

Bermuda Sun

Hott 107.5 Bermuda Radio

Storm Carib Bermuda Reports

Bermuda Weather Service

Port Bermuda Webcam (IE only) Alternate Link to Port Bermuda Cam

Bermuda Radar Recording of Gonzalo approach

Hurricanetrack Tower Cam Recording of Gonzalo approach at Shelly Bay, Bermuda

Bermuda News Gonzalo Live STreams


Canadian Hurricane Centre

8AM EDT Update 15 October 2014
Gonzalo moved across the northern Leewards and is now forecast to move near or just west of Bermuda on Friday. A hurricane watch is up for Bermuda.

Gonzalo has become a category 3 major hurricane and has the chance to become a cat 4 before moving over colder waters and then a possible second landfall in southeastern Newfoundland.


Mark Sudduth from Hurricanetrack.com is heading out to Bermuda this morning.

5:25PM EDT Update 13 October 2014
Gonzalo is now a strengthening hurricane, and currently over St. Martin(French/North Side)/St. Maarten (Dutch/South Side) and nearing Anguilla. The system is in the process of rapidly strengthening now, as huge bursts of convection are now being seen near the eye of Gonzalo. Those in the islands it is directly passing over will need to stay indoors.

Beyond the islands, Bermuda may have to watch the track of Gonzalo.

4:45PM EDT Update 12 October 2014
Gonzalo has forced Hurricane Watches for the US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra. Also
Antigua and Barbuda.

From the National Hurricane Center's discussion, the system is already starting to develop an eye, which could be a signal of rapid intensification, therefore the hurricane watch area was expanded to include more. Those in the watch area please pay close attention, and prepare for the possibility of a storm stronger than forecast.



Fay has also been upgraded to a hurricane, but expected to weaken soon.

3:45PM EDT Update 12 October 2014
Tropical Storm Gonzalo has formed east of the Caribbean Leewards islands, and watches and warnings have been issued for:

Guadeloupe, Desirade, Les Saintes, Marie Galante, St. martin and St. Bathelemy, St. Maartin, Saba, St. Eustatius, Barbuda, Angilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, British and US Virgin Islands, and Peurto Rico.

Currently Gonzalo is forecast to be a hurricane as it approaches Puerto Rico, so that watch may be upgraded depending on the development of the system. In fact,with the system the way it currently is, I'd assume the watch for Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands will be upgraded to a hurricane watch/warning later, so if you are in the area please prepare for that.

Beyond Peurto Rico, it is expected to stay out to sea, but may near Bermuda..

Those in the Watch/Warning areas will want to watch this system very closely, especially in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Mark Sudduth from Hurricanetrack.com will be out in Puerto Rico very soon.

Gonzalo is a small system, and can rapidly increase or decrease in strength,

Radar Recording of Antilles Radar of Gonzalo approach
Radar Recording of Barbados Radar of Gonzalo approach

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Original Update
The storm being tracked as Subtropical Storm #7 has strengthened rather rapidly this evening into the 60mph Subtropical Storm Fay. Not to be confused with Tropical Storm Fay of 2008, which affected Florida, especially east central Florida, with a great deal of rain. That one also had 3 Florida Landfalls and strengthened while over Lake Okeechobee. The name wasn't retired, so 6 years later it is in use again as this system.

This year's Fay is moving North Northwest is forecast to move just east of Bermuda, but close enough to Bermuda to cause a Tropical Storm Watch. With it likely having a large windfield as it nears, this may hold, even if the system does not go directly over Bermuda.

Outside of this, Invest 90L needs to be watched in the eastern Caribbean islands, but based on the pattern this time of year it is unlikely to have direct affects on the mainland US.

Bermuda Newspapers/Media:

Royal Gazette (Bermuda)

Bermuda Sun

Hott 107.5 Bermuda Radio

Storm Carib Bermuda Reports

Bermuda Weather Service

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Gonzalo Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Gonzalo


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Gonzalo (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Gonzalo (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Gonzalo

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Gonzalo
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Gonzalo -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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Slow Atlantic on the 10th Anniversary of the last 2004 Florida Hurricane

Posted: 08:52 AM 26 September 2014 | | Add Comment

Today marks 10 years since the landfall of hurricane Jean, the last of the "big 4" to hit in 2004. It made landfall in the evening, only a few miles from where Hurricane Frances made lade fall a few weeks before. Jeanne was notable for doing a large loop in the Bahamas and causing erosion and damage along the east beaches all the way up to Volusia county, The highest winds were felt in Indian river and southern Brevard county. Surge and beach erosion caused damage to structures into Volusia county, however.

One more hurricane, Wilma, would make landfall in Florida the following year before the nearly 9 year gap (and counting) we have now. Only a few tropical storms affected Florida since 2005.

Although 96L is being tracked in the Central Atlantic, the generally hostile conditions across the Atlantic will likely keep this one from developing. "home grown" systems closer to us are the most likely place for formation at this time, and nothing is organized enough to be a threat short term. Stalled fronts have caused excessive rainfall this week in Florida, but nothing tropically significant was able to come of it.

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Subtropical Depression Seven Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of SubTD7


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of SubTD7 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of SubTD7 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of SubTD7

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for SubTD7
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on SubTD7 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


90L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 90L


stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 90L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 90L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 90L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 90L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 90L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

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Ed Dunham

End of an Era

Posted: 02:40 PM 01 September 2014
It is beginning to look like the era of 'high spin cycle' tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin that started in 1995 has run its course with only three named storms recorded through the end of August. There were hints of that demise last year with a below normal level of hurricane development, i.e., only two Cat I storms - the last time that the Atlantic only had two hurricanes in a season was 1982. The last time that a season had three or less named storms by August 31st was in 1994 - the last year of the previous 'quiet cycle' in the Atlantic.

In the 45 seasons from 1950-2014 there were 17 seasons that only had three named storms by August 31st, so its not an unusual event, but it is unusual that the last one was 20 years ago. At the other end of the activity spectrum, in 1995, 2005, 2011 and 2012 there were 12 named storms by August 31st. Here are the previous 16 seasons since 1950 with three or less named storms prior to September 1st along with activity totals for those years, totals for the following year, and hurricane landfall statistics for the 16 seasons:

Year - # by 8/31 - total activity - following year - U.S. landfalls - FL landfalls
1952 2 6/6/3 13/6/4 1 0
1956 3 8/4/2 7/3/2 1 1
1957 2 7/3/2 10/7/5 1 0
1961 1 11/8/7 5/3/1 2 0
1962 2 5/3/1 9/7/2 0 0
1963 2 9/7/2 12/6/6 1 0
1965 3 6/4/1 11/7/3 1 0
1967 1 8/6/1 8/4/0 1 0
1977 1 6/5/1 12/5/2 1 0
1980 3 11/9/2 12/7/3 1 0
1982 3 6/2/1 4/3/1 0 0
1983 2 4/3/1 13/5/1 1 0
1987 3 7/3/1 11/5/3 1 1
1991 2 8/4/2 7/4/1 1 0
1992 2 7/4/1 7/3/1 1 1
1994 3 7/3/0 19/11/5* 0 0

Average 2 7/5/2 9/5/2 1 0
(*1995 was not included in the 'following year' average since 1995 was the start of the active cycle.)

Note that although these were all slow starting years (and mostly quiet years), every season except 1994 had at least one major hurricane. Although these were mostly quiet years, only three of them did not have a U.S. landfalling hurricane, while in Florida only three seasons had a landfalling hurricane. In the following year, one season had normal activity while seven seasons were above normal and seven seasons had below normal named storm activity, i.e., no correlation to the previous year. On average, based on the 16 seasons that started with three named storms (or less) by August 31st, this season would be expected to have four more named storms - with a minimum of one more and a maximum of eight more.

Since the lack of activity cannot be blamed on an El Nino event (it has not yet started), it is increasingly likely that the period of Atlantic high tropical cyclone activity has ended. However, it is important to remember that the likelihood of a U.S. hurricane landfall is about the same (approximately 22%) during a 'quiet cycle' era as it is during an 'active cycle' era - and that is also true for a Florida hurricane landfall (about 5%).
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