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Tropical Depression 5 forms in Bay of Campeche, forecast to move into Mexico Between Tuxpan and La Pesca as a Tropical Storm.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 60 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3234 (8 y 10 m) (Wilma)
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Climatological Peak Arrives With The Atlantic Bubbling

Posted: 02:10 PM 29 August 2014 | | Add Comment

4:30 PM CDT 1 September 2014 Update
Invest 99L which made its way from the Caribbean across the Yucatan and into the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico has become the fifth tropical cyclone of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Tropical Depression Five presently consists of a well defined surface circulation with a curved band of hearty convection wrapping around to the south and east of the center, and maximum sustained winds of 30 MPH. Five is forecast to become Dolly and make landfall well south of The Texas/Mexico border around mid-week as a low-end tropical storm.

Original Update


The end of August comes with entering the climatological peak for activity in the Atlantic basin, and it appears it could be coming right on schedule with no less than five areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic. Should any of these disturbances become better defined and/or they are issued Invest tags, we will set up individual Forecast Lounges, as warranted.

Closest to home, the broad low of old Invest 98L, which moved inland near Brownsville, Tx late yesterday, has subsumed a strong tropical surge that ran up behind it.

This merged feature is presently producing widespread tropical showers and some thunderstorms along the Gulf of Mexico from the Mexico/Texas border all the way to the west coast of Florida. Gusts of up to 50 MPH are occuring offshore, and as a westerly wind component already exists, despite the old center of 98L now being just inland, it may be wise to keep tabs on this throughout this holiday weekend, just in case. Sometimes inland centers can reform offshore, if given the chance. Either way, some on again/off again squally weather is a safe bet for much of the gulf coast today, and possibly into the rest of the weekend.

Below: Invest 98L 12:15PM CDT 8/29/2014


Texas Gulf Coast Links Texas/South Plains Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Corpus Christi, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Brownsville, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Houston/Galveston, TX - Corpus Christi, TX - Browsnville/South Padre Island, TX

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Tropical Depression Five Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD#5


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#5 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#5 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#5

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#5
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#5 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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Cristobal Forms and Heading Out to Sea

Posted: 08:24 AM 24 August 2014 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 01:07 PM 25-Aug EDT

The mess that was 96L and TD#4 finally has consolidated enough to become a Tropical Storm, and appears to have done so far enough to the north and east to now be forecast to miss much of the Bahamas and the US entirety. The period of uncertainty that existed in the undeveloped system is now mostly over. Avoiding a troublesome lead-up toward Labor day Weekend.

Cristobal likely will meander around and just north of where it is for the next few days before moving on out over the ocean, it may become a Hurricane over the open waters Wednesday or Thursday.

Beyond Cristobal there may be something to watch a week from now, but nothing currently being watched.

Texas Gulf Coast Links Texas/South Plains Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Corpus Christi, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Brownsville, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Houston/Galveston, TX - Corpus Christi, TX - Browsnville/South Padre Island, TX

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Cristobal Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Cristobal


stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Cristobal (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Cristobal (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Cristobal

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Cristobal
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Cristobal -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


98L (Gulf) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 98L


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 98L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 98L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 98L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 98L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 98L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

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Tropical Depression Four Forms near Turks and Caicos

Posted: 07:17 AM 23 August 2014 | 7 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 07:20 PM 23-Aug EDT

9:30 PM EDT 23 August 2014 Update

Recon managed to find enough of a circulation to classify the low area as a depression with 35MPH winds.

And thusly also setting up the stage for Tropical Storm Warnings for the Southeastern Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos.

The official forecast tkaes it similar to the Euro and GFS runs along the Bahamas and then out to sea, with a large error possible. The typical official track cone size does not increase based on uncertainty, it's always the average error for all storms as of late. So there is still a possibility for the track to change, as the NHC has mentioned it being a low confidence forecast.

The 3 to 5 day forecast is based on model consensus that had quite a significant variation so expect continual track adjustments over the next few days as the cyclone slows down into 'drift' mode caused by weak steering currents. This slow drift is forecast for some of tomorrow and all of Monday.

However, everything as it stands currently odds really do favor the official track, so I can't think of a reason to not take it right now, except that it depends on how the actual storm progresses.

10:45 AM EDT 23 August 2014 Update
Recon did not find a closed circulation center, and with land interaction with Hispaniola, 96L is not likely to form today. Tomorrow is much more likely. Many models have shifted west this morning and are still split between a Florida landfall and out to sea (with varying intensity). So it remains important to keep watch through the weekend.

Based on the current trends, if it were to impact Florida, it would be during the day Wednesday.


Original Update
The wave near Hispaniola this morning continues to be somewhat disrupted by the island. The model paths have a wide spread, and overall conditions are hard to judge, as is the exact center location of the wave or wave axis.

Odds favor it remaining weak and out to sea, but have been trending westward over the last few runs and some of the fairly reliable models (GFS, HRWF) have suggested a Florida landfall, so confidence is low. Based on those, If the system were to make it toward Florida, it would likely be here during the day on Wednesday.

Recon is approaching the storm this morning.



For the future, several more reliable models keep it out to sea (euro, for example). So therefore until an actually storm develops, it is hard to say. Please pay attention to any advisories that the National Hurricane Center puts out, and pay attention to local media if something were to occur. Intensity is also an unknown factor (a relatively weak or strong storm).

If named, the storm would be called Cristobal, this is likely later today or tomorrow. Tomorrow is the better bet..

Keep close watch over the weekend. More speculation can be found in the forecast lounge.

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Cristobal Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Cristobal


stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Cristobal (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Cristobal (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Cristobal

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Cristobal
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Cristobal -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

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Wave Still Disorganized (96L)

Posted: 07:32 PM 19 August 2014 | 8 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 01:03 AM 23-Aug EDT

7:00 AM EDT 22 August 2014 Update
The inability for the wave to consolidate yesterday pushes it into another realm of uncertainty today, as the very broad system may be trying to recenter under or just east of Puerto Rico. Model runs have generally been out to sea overnight, but with a center position assumed to be barely just northeast of the Caribbean.

With still no solid development, the center relocation idea is one to watch for this morning as it would likely invalidate most of the model runs, although the GFS may have hinted at this. This is one of several reasons why models are only perhaps good in the short term for systems that have not yet developed. Especially in cases where a dominant center cannot be maintained.


Image note: the arrow for new center is off by a bit, should be more northeast, and the center on radar is north of the island, so it's more like a wave axis south to north currently.

Recon does fly again today. to help clear things up a bit.

So in short, keep watch on this area today, it's up to 60/80% development chances. It may just remain weak its entire existence, especially if it can't manage to consolidate. Continue to watch it today, things can change from hour to hour.

Even with the center relocation, odds favor it staying east of the US currently, but that is still uncertain.


7:45 AM EDT 21 August 2014 Update
The wave east of the Caribbean is at a 50% chance for development in the next 48 hours, and based on what the recon flight later today shows, it may or may not be upgraded today. This morning it looks a bit rough, so development may hold off for another day or two.

The system has moved a bit north in latitude and a lot of attention to model runs recently has ramped up some hype. The Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will need to watch for some development, if it develops, for tropical storm type weather.

Beyond that is pure speculation, long range model runs have had very high rates of error for this system so far (based on the standard deviations) And until the system is well established using them is not a good idea, except to watch for trends. And right now the trends have swung wildly, and probably will for another day or two.

Also what, if any, interaction with the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, is a factor.



The biggest drivers of the future position of this system are the trough in the western Atlantic and the high at the time it closes by, the global models are struggling with this right now, so I'd avoid reading into them too much.

Those in the Bahamas and Southeast should watch through the weekend to see what happens on this. The trend directions, as of this morning, keep it offshore, but those trends are still with a very low confidence. See the forecast lounge for more discussion and speculation.

Original Update
A tropical wave east of the Caribbean, although likely not to develop in the short term, has a moderate chance later in the week. 30% in the next 48 hours, and 50% over the next 5 days.

The dry air conditions are likely to put a damper on it, but being later in August those in the Caribbean will want to watch it. Long range models do put it as a potential threat to the northern Caribbean islands, including Cuba, and it possibly could enter the Gulf of Mexico. See the forecast lounge for more discussion on the longer range.

Despite that, it still has to develop around the dry air, which may let up Thursday or Friday somewhat, and enter into more favorable conditions.

More to come later, if necessary.

Another wave east of 96L also has a 20% chance for development over the next 5 days, but it is not being tracked as an invest currently. Model runs will be unreliable until a few runs after it develops, so don't read into long range forecasts this early.

If named, the storm would be called Cristobal.

French Antilles Radar recording of 96L approach

Barbados Radar recording of 96L approach

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Invest 96L (East of Caribbean Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 96L


stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 96L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 96L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 96L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 96L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 96L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

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Watching a wave (94L) In the East Atlantic

Posted: 04:43 PM 10 August 2014 | | Add Comment

Another wave with a 40% chance for development over the next 5 days is being watched in the east Atlantic. This wave, tracked as 94L, has quite a bit of dry air and poor conditions to traverse before entering more favorable areas. Most of the Atlantic east of the Caribbean is currently awash in generally dry conditions.

However it is approaching the start of the peak season, in mid August that runs through mid October. So it is important to watch this and any other tropical disturbances that may develop.


Invest 94L (East Atlantic Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 94L


stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


More to come later.

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Ed Dunham

End of an Era

Posted: 02:40 PM 01 September 2014
It is beginning to look like the era of 'high spin cycle' tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin that started in 1995 has run its course with only three named storms recorded through the end of August. There were hints of that demise last year with a below normal level of hurricane development, i.e., only two Cat I storms - the last time that the Atlantic only had two hurricanes in a season was 1982. The last time that a season had three or less named storms by August 31st was in 1994 - the last year of the previous 'quiet cycle' in the Atlantic.

In the 45 seasons from 1950-2014 there were 17 seasons that only had three named storms by August 31st, so its not an unusual event, but it is unusual that the last one was 20 years ago. At the other end of the activity spectrum, in 1995, 2005, 2011 and 2012 there were 12 named storms by August 31st. Here are the previous 16 seasons since 1950 with three or less named storms prior to September 1st along with activity totals for those years, totals for the following year, and hurricane landfall statistics for the 16 seasons:

Year - # by 8/31 - total activity - following year - U.S. landfalls - FL landfalls
1952 2 6/6/3 13/6/4 1 0
1956 3 8/4/2 7/3/2 1 1
1957 2 7/3/2 10/7/5 1 0
1961 1 11/8/7 5/3/1 2 0
1962 2 5/3/1 9/7/2 0 0
1963 2 9/7/2 12/6/6 1 0
1965 3 6/4/1 11/7/3 1 0
1967 1 8/6/1 8/4/0 1 0
1977 1 6/5/1 12/5/2 1 0
1980 3 11/9/2 12/7/3 1 0
1982 3 6/2/1 4/3/1 0 0
1983 2 4/3/1 13/5/1 1 0
1987 3 7/3/1 11/5/3 1 1
1991 2 8/4/2 7/4/1 1 0
1992 2 7/4/1 7/3/1 1 1
1994 3 7/3/0 19/11/5* 0 0

Average 2 7/5/2 9/5/2 1 0
(*1995 was not included in the 'following year' average since 1995 was the start of the active cycle.)

Note that although these were all slow starting years (and mostly quiet years), every season except 1994 had at least one major hurricane. Although these were mostly quiet years, only three of them did not have a U.S. landfalling hurricane, while in Florida only three seasons had a landfalling hurricane. In the following year, one season had normal activity while seven seasons were above normal and seven seasons had below normal named storm activity, i.e., no correlation to the previous year. On average, based on the 16 seasons that started with three named storms (or less) by August 31st, this season would be expected to have four more named storms - with a minimum of one more and a maximum of eight more.

Since the lack of activity cannot be blamed on an El Nino event (it has not yet started), it is increasingly likely that the period of Atlantic high tropical cyclone activity has ended. However, it is important to remember that the likelihood of a U.S. hurricane landfall is about the same (approximately 22%) during a 'quiet cycle' era as it is during an 'active cycle' era - and that is also true for a Florida hurricane landfall (about 5%).
ED
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