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#Karl pulling away from Bermuda and #Lisa spinning down, all eyes are turning to eastern Atlantic #flhurricane.com
# of days since last Hurricane Landfall - US: Any 23 (Hermine) , Major: 3989 (10 y 11 m) (Wilma) Florida - Any: 23 (Hermine) Major: 3989 (10 y 11 m) (Wilma)
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Karl Moving Out, Closely Watching 97L for Next Week

Posted: 09:07 AM 25 September 2016 | | Add Comment

Tropical Storm Karl has passed by Bermuda and is now on the way out to sea, the attention now moves to the wave in the central Atlantic being tracked as invest 97L. This system will likely have some impacts in the central to southern leeward islands and Windwards mid week around Wednesday, and beyond that move into the Caribbean. There is an 80% chance this system will develop over the next 5 days. Beyond that it it is too soon to tell, but will likely need to be watched closely by those in the Caribbean, Bahamas, Florida, and the Gulf to see where it ultimately goes.

Any impacts to the US wouldn't be until next week (Oct 6-9), there is a good chance the system stays east, but in that case there would be more impact felt in the Caribbean and Bahamas. It's still a ways out with a undeveloped system so speculation beyond a few days is a bit counterproductive, but the system is worth watching.

More speculation on 97L can be found in the forecast lounge.

97L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 97L


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 97L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 97L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 97L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 97L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 97L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


TS Karl Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Karl


stormplotthumb_12.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Karl (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Karl (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Karl

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Karl
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Karl -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

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Julia, Gulf Low and More in a Lit Up Atlantic

Posted: 10:12 PM 13 September 2016 | 3 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 02:16 PM 23-Sep EDT

5:00AM EDT Update 22 September 2016

If you can believe it, the feature worth watching today may be the ghost of old Invest 92L, this morning a well-formed low once more, now just offshore of Corpus Christi, TX. Winds have been gusting as high as 55MPH on oil rigs (at elevations starting at 100' above the surface). More on this feature and what it might do going forward in the 92L Forecast Lounge.

Elsewhere, Karl has finally begun turning, Lisa is a sure fish spinner this week, the remnants of Julia persist along the east coast, and a few new waves worth eyeing are setting to roll off Africa.

5:30AM EDT Update 19 September 2016
Julia became a remnant low last night, at last. Or, is she? Only time will tell. This has truly been the year of the never-ending tropical cyclone.

A New W Atlantic Low and eventually Karl are the ones to watch for potential Bermuda impacts. Invest 96L will most likely spin fish northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.




9:30AM EDT Update 18 September 2016
Night of the living dead Tropical Cyclones

She's baaaack. Forecasts of Julia's imminent death have been greatly exaggerated, and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings may in fact be needed along the Carolina coasts by Monday, with the cyclone heading in that general direction and an increasingly less hostile environment on the way.

Also close to home, residual mid-level spin associated with the x-92L merger and a non-tropical trof persist in the northern Gulf of Mexico. This non-tropical activity tends to flare up during the day, and subside at night, bringing copious rains to southern Louisiana for the past two days, and is now tracking decidedly east. Development is not expected, but heavy showers are.

TS Karl is mostly following forecasts of a WSW motion while weak, and looks to begin leveling out and then heading WNW. Behind Karl Invest 96L is bringing blustery weather to the Cabo Verdes.


3:30PM EDT Update 14 September 2016
This update comes with several changes.



Old Invest 92L is still in the northern Gulf of Mexico, now interacting with a preexisting upper-level trof with an associated surface reflection. This system has persisted, with some increased convection noted today, and NHC has upped the odds for development to 20%. Blustery showers and thunderstorms for Texas and maybe Louisiana, regardless.

Julia was downgraded to a Tropical Depression early this morning, but it was a tenuous call not upgrading her back to Tropical Storm status by midday, and most recently Recon is finding winds at or above 40MPH, along with a center that keeps jumping further and further east to realign with convection that is being blown away by 20-30 knots of harsh shear. This system has been resilient from its early days as only an Invest, and holding its own, or even strengthening in the face of strong shear means there is no reason to take our eyes off of it.

TWELVE may very well have become a tropical storm last night, but was missed by scatterometer passes, and without Recon flying through, was maintained as a TD. The cyclone is now weaker, feeling the effects of some strong shear itself, but is still healthy, and is forecast to continue tracking west. A potential long-range threat, with speculation that far out being discussed in the Lounge.

Ian maintaining as a 50MPH Trop Storm, heading northeast, and will likely become post-tropical soon. But how about this, a new "named" strong subtropical storm has formed in the extreme eastern Atlantic, actually in the Bay of Biscay between Spain, and France, and is being monitored by RSMC La Reunion! This subtropical cyclone has been dubbed "Subtropicale St├ęphanie," and being discussed in Other Storm Basins.

Bringing up the rear, yet another vigorous tropical wave is about to exit western Africa.

-Ciel

2:00PM EDT Update 14 September 2016
This update comes with a few changes.

Tropical Storm Julia continues pulling to the right of forecast, and the center has just emerged offshore of Savanna, Ga., presently located near 31.8N 80.8W Speculation on Julia's potential outcomes, including interaction with the warm waters east of Fl/Ga/SC, can be read about and discussed in the Tropical Storm Julia Forecast Lounge.

Invest 92L is sorta back. Yep. You may recall how this guy nearly became a classified TD while in the Florida Straits just a few days ago, but the next day was given hours left to survive in the face of extraordinarily high shear and dry air? Its remnants survived. (Again). Now interacting with troffines left in the wake of a mid-latitude cyclone and TS Julia, this feature is presently centered near 26N 91W in the northern Gulf of Mexico and may soon be re-invest tagged. Observations from buoys, CMAN stations and ships suggest that a broad surface low has formed, with some gusts to tropical storm force noted. NHC has just added this one to their most recent TWO

Invest 95L is now TD TWELVE over the Cabo Verde islands, and is expected to become a named tropical storm later today, and track west-northwest. The next name on the list is Karl.

Further east, yet another vigorous tropical wave is set to enter the Atlantic by the weekend.

-Ciel

Original entry

The most recent enigmatic tropical wave we have been following for many days, this one Invest 93L, has acquired sufficient organization to be classified as a tropical cyclone while right along the coast of northeast Florida tonight, and as it has been producing winds near or at tropical storm force through much of the day already, NHC has begun advisories on Tropical Storm Julia, the tenth named storm of this pretty wild 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Still out in the central to eastern Atlantic are Tropical Storm Ian (from 94L), and a newer tropical wave with its associated area of low pressure, nearing the Cabo Verde islands (95L). What remains of Invest 92L is in the northern Gulf of Mexico, and has been getting drawn up into the circulation of Julia. Behind 95L and still inland over extreme western Africa is a potent looking Low.



TS Karl Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Karl


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Karl (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Karl (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Karl

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Karl
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Karl -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

TS Lisa Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Lisa


stormplotthumb_13.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Lisa (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Lisa (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Lisa

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Lisa
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Lisa -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)



East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Bermuda Newspapers/Media:

Royal Gazette (Bermuda)

Bermuda Sun

Hott 107.5 Bermuda Radio

Storm Carib Bermuda Reports

Bermuda Weather Service

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Invest 93L May Be Declared Julia Today. Atlantic Getting Busier Again.

Posted: 09:16 PM 08 September 2016 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 01:37 PM 09-Sep EDT

Update - Tuesday, 13 September, 2:30PM
93L has been straddling the line of being a classifiable system today, and NHC has just bumped up the odds of a tropical storm declaration to 40% today. Tropical storm conditions are likely to persist, either way as the incipient tropical cyclone continues tracking north or north-northwest. The next name on the list is Julia.

Elsewhere, the remnants of 92L are in the northern central Gulf of Mexico, with showers and a few storms pushing into the deep south. Ian remains well out to sea, and 95L nearing the Cabo Verde islands may become a depression by Friday.

-Ciel


Update - Tuesday, 13 September, 9:30AM EDST
Invest 93L moved inland near Vero Beach at 13/07Z and the center of the weak tropical system passed over the northwest Melbourne area in east central Florida at 13/11Z. Most of the rainsqualls are currently offshore but the system will move northwest to north northwest into the Florida Peninsula over the next 24 hours. From the Melbourne NWS Area Forecast Discussion:

"...Weak tropical low to bring heavy rainfall in numerous showers and
squalls with isolated storms...

.Update...Early morning updates to increase winds from northern
Brevard to Volusia county along the coast with breezy conditions
through the day. Also, the small craft advisory was expanded to the
Brevard/Volusia near shore waters with seas to 7 feet at Buoy 41113
4 nautical miles northeast of the entrance to Port Canaveral. Seas
were increased to 6 to 8 feet offshore. Minimum pressure recorded
at Melbourne airport was 29.84 inches at 537 am this morning with
low pressure passage near Melbourne."


ED





10:30AM EDT Update 12 September 2016
Invest 94L is now Tropical Storm Ian, the ninth named tropical cyclone of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Ian is embattled with shear, and only forecast to remain a tropical storm while spinning north out at sea.

92L to the left of it, 93L to the right, Florida is stuck in the middle between these two.

Low odds of development, but owing to their tenacity and closeness, continue to be watched.

-Ciel



12:30PM EDT Update 9 September 2016
In the Straits of Florida, an area low pressure associated with formerly-tagged Invest 92L continues tracking towards the eastern Gulf of Mexico today. This tropical low is accompanied by a small area of winds to about 25MPH and a pocket of very heavy rain. More on this feature in the 92L Forecast Lounge

Invest 93L is struggling through shear today, but could soon bring blustery showers to Puerto Rico. Large and sprawling 94L is still trying to organize well east of the Lesser Antilles.
-Ciel



6:00AM EDT Update 9 September 2016
The wave formerly being tracked as Invest 92L is now entering the Straits of Florida from the east, and has been resilient. The next 12-48 hours could see environmental conditions turn somewhat favorable for some development should the wave be entering or be in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Invest 93L is now passing along just north of the Greater Antilles, and could bring PR and Hispaniola blustery showers this weekend. Like 92L above, it too could find itself nestled in a region of low to very low shear this weekend while passing close to these islands, and bears closer watching, despite still very low odds given officially at this time.

Invest 94L now looks like a mid-size gyre, with cyclonic motion clearly evident throughout its expanse on satellite, but not yet well organized at the surface per wind data. The baseline forecast calls for slow development, but quick enough that it never as much as brushes the Antilles before hooking out to sea. Indications of anything slower could mean the Antilles may want to watch.

-Ciel

There are two new waves in the Atlantic this week, 93L and 94L, 94L is in the far east Atlantic and most likely to stay out to sea.

93L is near the leewards and may have a chance to affect the US coast or Florida by the middle of next week.


93L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 93L


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 93L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 93L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 93L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 93L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 93L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

10L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 10L


stormplotthumb_10.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 10L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 10L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 10L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 10L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 10L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

95L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 95L


stormplotthumb_12.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 95L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 95L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 95L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 95L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 95L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

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Hermine and Storm Surge

Posted: 02:09 PM 31 August 2016 | 29 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 12:31 PM 03-Sep EDT

2:00PM EDT Update 3 September 2016

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. Along the immediate
coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves.

There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the
next few hours in the Hampton Roads area, and in the next 36 hours
from Chincoteague, Virginia, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey. Persons
within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life
and property from rising water.

Promptly follow all instructions,
including evacuation orders, from local officials. There is also
the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48
hours at many coastal locations between Sandy Hook, New Jersey, and
Bridgeport, Connecticut.


11:30AM EDT Update 2 September 2016
Hermine is moving rapidly northeast just inside the coast of Georgia, expected to slow down offshore of Carolina and become a hurricane and only go through a partial extratropical transition. It likely will sit offshore of Delware/New Jersey for a bit, bringing lots of surge to parts of the area. Tropical Storm watches have been extended all the way to Rhode Island. Hermine is going to affect nearly the entire east coast's labor day weekend.

1:30AM EDT Update 2 September 2016
Hermine has made landfall just east of St. Marks, breaking the nearly 11 year span of no landfalling hurricanes in Florida.

3:00PM Update 1 September 2016
Hermine has now reached hurricane status based on recon reports.

Let us know conditions in your area here http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Number=96502&gonew=1#UNREAD



2:30PM Update 1 September 2016
Tropical Storm Warnings have been extended southward to Englewood (S. of Tampa) on the west coast of Florida, and south to the Volusia/Flagler Line on the east coast due to the large tropical storm force windfield to the south and east of Hermine.

7AM Update 1 September 2016
Tropical Storm Hermine is nearing hurricane strength this morning based on recent recon reports of 994mb and 70 knot winds just east of the center at flight level.

The landfall is forecast for near Apalachee bay around 1AM this morning, this is a slight shift east from last night. Considering most of the heavy convection and wind is on the east side of the system.



Hurricane Warnings are up for the Panhandle, but it also important to note the Tropical Storm warnings on the east coast Marineland to South Santee River and the watches north of that to Surf City, NC. Hermine could be affecting a lot of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coastlines with rain, wind, and some surge.

11PM Update 31 August 2016
Hermine has strengthened a bit faster than anticipated and now has 60mph winds, and is now forecast to be a hurricane at landfall. If it does so it will be the first hurricane to make landfall in Florida in nearly 11 years. Landfall is forecast to be near Alligator Point in the Panhandle pre dawn Friday morning, with most of the rain and wind to the east and south.

Hurricane Warnings are now up
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Mexico Beach
Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Destin

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Destin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Marineland Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia

Florida Emergency management: http://www.floridadisaster.org/index.asp

Let us know what you are seeing from Hermine in your area in this thread.

Original Update
Tropical Depression 9, which went on for days as 99L before then has now become Tropical Storm Hermine.
Hurricane Watches are in effect for...Anclote River to Indian Pass as it is still possible for Hermine to briefly become a hurricane before landfall
Tropical Storm Warnings Anclote River to the Walton/Bay County line
Tropical Storm Watches along the east coast: Marineland Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia

Some of the top threats include heavy rain, storm surge near and east of where the storm makes landfall, and short lived tornadoes. Hermine is a VERY large storm, but not strong, and is partly why it has been so slow to get organized. Points beyond landfall in the Southeast and Mid Atlantic warrant attention also.

More to come soon..

Mark Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is on the way to Florida to investigate the landfall, follow along at

Hermine Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Hermine


stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Hermine (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Hermine (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Hermine

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Hermine
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Hermine -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Miami Long Range Radar Recording for 99L
Florida Radar Recording for 99L

Northeast US Radar Links Northeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Dover, DE Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mt. Holly, NJ Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Upton/NYC/Long Island, NY Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Boston/Cape Cod, MA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Portland, ME Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Carabou, ME Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

Gaston Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Gaston


stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Gaston (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Gaston (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Gaston

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Gaston
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Gaston -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


92L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 92L


stormplotthumb_10.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 92L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 92L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 92L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 92L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 92L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

Tampa Area Media:

Bay News 9

WFLA News 8 (NBC)

Bay Action News (ABC)

WTSP Channel 10 (CBS)

My Fox Tampa Bay

WWSB ABC 7 Sarasota

Tampa Bay Times

Tampa Bay Online

Sarasota Herald Tribune

970 WFLA Tampa News/Talk Radio


Eastern NC/OBX/Hampton Roads Media:

Star News Online (Wilmington)

Outer Banks Sentinel

Hampton Roads Pilot

WWAY TV 3 Wilmington, NC (ABC)

WECT TV 6 Wilmington, NC (NBC)

Fox Wilmington (FOX)

WILM TV 10 Wilmington, NC (CBS)

WITN 7 - Eastern North Carolina TV (NBC)

WCTI 12 - Eastern North Carolina (ABC)

WNCT TV 9 - Eastern North Carolina (CBS)

Wavy 10 (NBC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA TV

WTKR 3 (CBS) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA

WVEC 13 (ABC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA

Florida Power Outage Maps

Duke Energy Florida Outage Map - Most of Central and Northern Florida

Florida Power and Light Outage Map (Much of South Florida)

Orlando Utilities Commision Outage Map

Tampa Electric Outage Map

JEA (Jacksonville) Outage Map

Gulf Power (Western Panhandle)

Clay Electric Outage Map (Gainsville/ North Central Florida area)

Lakeland Electric Outage Map

Hawaii Storm Info

Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Hawaiian Media:

TV:

KITV 4 - Honolulu (ABC)

KHON 2 - Honolulu (Fox)

Hawaii News Now KGMB 9 (CBS)/KHNL 13 (NBC)

Newspaper:

Hawaii 24/7 (Big Island Newspaper)

Hawaii Tribune-Herald

Maui News

Honolulu Star Advertiser

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TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic

Posted: 05:26 AM 28 August 2016 | 35 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 12:13 PM 31-Aug EDT

1:55 PM EDT Update 31 August 2016
Recon flying through TD NINE have found an abundance of tropical storm force winds, and the cyclone has been named, Hermine, the eighth named cyclone of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season.


8:45 PM EDT Update 30 August 2016
In Florida, even though NINE is "only" a Tropical Depression, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for Anclote River to Indian Pass. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for west of Indian Pass to the Walton/Bay County line.

"A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. "

The fact that a Hurricane Watch has been issued while this tropical cyclone does not yet even have a name is indeed noteworthy, and should be a bell ringer that there is considerable concern with the potential for NINE to become a serious system.

Meanwhile, out in the central Pacific, Hawaii County is now under a Hurricane Warning. "A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion."

Dangerous Major Hurricanes Madeline and Lester are basically headed due west tonight, in Hawaii's direction.



9:45 AM EDT Update 29 August 2016
Tropical Storm watches are now up for TD#8 in North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet. TD#8 may become a Tropical Storm today as shear is relaxing (The Upper Level low that has been shearing this system and TD#9 is starting to fall apart). The system is forecast to stay offshore, but most of heavy convection is on the northwest side, which would take the weather over land tomorrow.

TD#9 is looking better defined this morning, it's window to develop is between today and Wednesday. Those along the Gulf coast particularly in the Big Bend and Florida either side of there should continue to watch it closely. No watches or warnings are up for there yet, and probably won't be until late tomorrow or Wednesday.

7:50PM EDT Update 28 August 2016
99L has become Tropical Depression #9, depending on if 8 gets named or not, the next name is Hermine, then Ian. The forecast track is highly uncertain and intensity and exact location are still very much fluid. It will likely have time to linger in the gulf for the next several days and potentially strengthen, there are a few negative factors such as shear that may keep it in check, but is countered by extremely warm water temperatures in the Gulf. Those along the west coast of Florida into the northern Gulf coast need to keep very close watch over the next few days.When the system enters the Gulf proper and clears the keys/Cuba we may have a better idea how and where the system will go, if the system moves. If it stalls out, it makes it a lot more difficult, the GFS keeps it into the Gulf until Friday, so that is very much a possibility. With a better center fix models tomorrow should have a slightly better idea of the future, but still probably not enough with the slow motion of the system predicted.

Be aware for potentially rapid changes in the forecast this week.

11AM Update 28 August 2016
91L has become Tropical Depression Eight and is likely to form into Tropical Storm Hermine later today. Tropical Storm watches may be up for the Carolinas later today, but the forecast track keeps it just east of the Outer Banks.

99L Still has a chance to form tomorrow night or later in the week in the Gulf, the next name beyond Hermine is Ian. The system is stilll elongated and disorganized. Any organization with it will be slow. The name after Ian is Julia. The area north of Tampa, Big Bend and west along the Northern Gulf coast probably needs to watch it the closest.

Activity in the tropics will be in overdrive the next two weeks or so, including Hawaii which may be impacted by one or two storms.



Recon is scheduled to fly both TD#8 and 99L today. I suspect it'll be upgraded to Hermine when recon gets there.

Original Update


The most significant changes from this time yesterday is a necessary mention of Hawaii, and increased attention to some features closer to the lower 48, that were not getting much more than a second look before.

Out in the eastern to central Pacific, one Invest, one Tropical Storm and one Hurricane all have trajectories heading towards the Hawaiian islands. Possibly the most significant of these three is Hurricane Lester, that also has some potential for becoming an annular tropical cyclone. Closest to the island chain are an impressive, presently unnumbered Invest, and a strong Tropical Storm, Madeline. Both of these features could produce flooding rains on some or all of the islands.

Closest to Florida, Invest 99L continues to be earning more internet memes than praise, but the fact is, this tropical wave was as intense as we ever see them without being given a name, and then just had the misfortune of running into one obstacle after another, presently being some unforeseen moderately strong northerly shear. Once again, development, interrupted. IF this shear relaxes in time, then the most recent model runs could verify (a good guess is 50-50, but they have had more than their fair share of #99Lproblems).

It is worth noting that all of the most reliable tropical cyclone genesis models (GFS, ECMWF, UKMET), as well as several lesser ones, develop this area of low pressure into a nameable tropical cyclone once in the Gulf. Given 99L's tenacity, it may be best not to crack any more jokes.

Going further down the list, Invest 91L has improved structurally and a little bit so convectively overnight, with more showers and a few thunderstorms firing up within its center of circulation. Given that a reasonably well-defined surface circ already exists, if convection holds and builds, it might actually be more than a mere rain-maker. Models that had strongly advertised either a southwest or northeast course have been wrong so far, but of course, with 91L tracking more to its west-northwest. Interests along the Carolinas and out to sea from there may want to begin treating 91L as if it was already a depression.

Now in the far northwest Gulf of Mexico, a trof of low pressure with an associated wave pouch, not yet having been given an Invest tag, has been percolating more just offshore overnight. This Low is sliding southwest along the Texas coast. The surface trough runs the Texas coast from near 29N 95W along 27N 94W to 24N 88W. A core of breezy moderate to heavy showers accompanies this feature, and there is a non-negligible chance for some additional development.

Out at sea, Gaston is a strengthening hurricane, and could become the Atlantic's first Major of this year within 48 hours.

Hawaii - Trop Storm Madeline Lounge

Hawaii - Hur Lester Forecast Lounge


Tropical Depression Nine Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD#9


stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#9 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#9 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#9

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#9
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#9 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Miami Long Range Radar Recording for 99L
Florida Radar Recording for 99L

Tropical Depression 8) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD#8


stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#8 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#8 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#8

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#8
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#8 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

Gaston Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Gaston


stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Gaston (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Gaston (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Gaston

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Gaston
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Gaston -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Invest 92L (Far East Atlantic) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 92L


stormplotthumb_10.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 92L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 92L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 92L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 92L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 92L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

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Ed Dunham

Hermine Heads for Florida

Posted: 02:22 AM 01 September 2016
At 2AM, Tropical Storm Hermine was located about 300 miles to the west southwest of Tampa in the eastern Gulf of Mexico near 26.0N 87.0W with winds of 60mph gusting to 75 mph and a central pressure of 999 MB. Hermine is moving just east of due north at 6mph. Sea-Surface Temperatures are as high as 30C in the Gulf of Mexico so additional intensification to Cat I Hurricane strength seems likely. I expect that the system will move slightly to the right of the current NHC forecast track with landfall late Thursday evening southwest of Cross City and exit into the Atlantic in the Jacksonville area early Friday morning. The tropical cyclone should maintain at least Tropical Storm strength as it crosses the peninsula. The storm is a typical Gulf system with most of the wind and weather located in the eastern half of the cyclone.

Sustained Tropical Storm winds are likely in Jacksonville and possible in St Pete/Tampa, Orlando and Daytona Beach. Wind gusts to tropical storm force in rain squalls (40 to 45mph) are possible along and north of a line from Ft Myers to Ft Pierce on Thursday. Scattered to numerous tropical downpours - a few with thunder - will produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches in east central Florida on Thursday and early Friday with much heavier amounts in west central and northeast Florida. Significant flooding is likely through Friday - especially in west central to northeast Florida. Hurricane force winds at landfall Thursday evening will create widespread power outages and flooded roadways in the Cross City to Jacksonville corridor. Isolated tornadoes are possible - mostly over the northern half of the peninsula - on Thursday

Most of the forecast models seem to have initialized Hermine's center too far to the west, and it is quite possible that Hermine may move slightly more to the right than I have indicated - which primarily would generate higher winds in west central Florida. A good guideline with this Tropical Storm is to extrapolate the current movement, whenever the storm turns more to the north northeast, and use that as the expected track since nothing is likely to move the storm to the left of that line.
ED
39.9N 47.9W
Wind: 70MPH
Pres: 986mb
Moving:
Ne at 49 mph
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