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Trof continues to spin lows near Florida. Invest 94L in far eastern Atlantic.
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July Wave Being Watched

Posted: 09:58 PM 16 July 2015 | | Add Comment

The first Central Atlantic wave of the season is being tracked as invest area 93L. With only slight support for it with the models, chances are on the low side. Over the next few days its worth watching, and likely would be at the closest approach to the Leewards on Monday.

This wave is about 1000 miles west of the Cape Verde islands and generally moving westward.

It has a 20% development chance over the next 5 days. If it persists through tomorrow the chances may go up, slightly, but iIt likely will encounter more hostile conditions with very high shear over the weekend into early next week which argue heavily against development.. Odds favor it staying weak,and staying east and recurving out to sea before reaching the Caribbean. Although there may be some rain for the northeastern most Leewards.



The system currently has some mid level circulation seen on satellite, but remains to be seen if it persists.

If it were to make it into the Caribbean, the shear there is extreme (record breaking even) and would likely be destroyed by it.

Invest 94L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 94L


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

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Likely Short Lived Claudette forms off East Coast

Posted: 12:25 PM 12 July 2015 | 5 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 09:40 AM 16-Jul EDT

1PM EDT Update 7/13/2015
Tropical Storm Claudette forms off the East Coast of the US, likely to be short lived.Tropical storm as it quickly is heading toward an area with much colder water and high shear.

The remnants will likely be felt in parts of Newfoundland in Canada.

Original Update
Most of July is quiet for storms this year, however an invest has formed off the coast of North Carolina (92l) that has a low chance to develop as it moves away from the United States, but those in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland will likely want to watch 92L.

As mentioned in the forecast lounge, development chances in general are low for the next 10 days. And this system is no exception. in about a week there's another system that could also form near or off the coast of the Carolinas that would have a better chance to develop.

"Home brew" style systems, system that develop pft the east coast and in the Gulf, are the ones to look for over the next several weeks. The Caribbean has too high of windshear to develop anything, and the east Atlantic wave rollout hasn't started yet.


Canadian Hurricane Centre


Invest 92L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 92L


stormplotthumb_3.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 92L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 92L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 92L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 92L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 92L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Invest 93L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 93L


stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 93L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 93L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 93L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 93L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 93L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

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Tropical Storm Bill Landfall at Matagorda Island

Posted: 10:08 PM 15 June 2015 | 6 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 02:57 AM 19-Jun EDT

11:45 AM CDT June 16th Update
Tropical Storm Bill made landfall at Matagorda Island at 11:45 CD On June 16, 2015.




6:15 AM CDT June 16th Update
Tropical Storm Bill has maintained its forward motion overnight and kept its overall strength through the night, only recently has a few signs of strengthening occurred. Recon is currently out sampling the data, so some adjustment upward in windspeed is likely.

The system will likely landfall late this morning or early afternoon, possibly reaching roughly 60mph before it is done. Nearly all the convection is on the east side of the storm, so areas to the east of the landfall point will see most of the rainfall impacts of the system. Rain on the east side of Bill will likely be the biggest impact. A strengthening tropical system is something to pay attention to. Those in the area check with local officials and media.

Mark Sudduth from HurricaneTrack is out at the Bolivar Peninsula today See Live stream

Original Update
Tropical Storm Bill has formed from invest 91L, and will likely be a big rain maker for parts of east Texas.

Tropical Storm Warnings are now up from Baffin Bay (south of Corpus) to High Island, TX (North of Galveston)



The initial windspeed is 50MPH, it is possible for it to strengthen a bit more before landfall, but it is currently only 200 miles away from Galveston, Texas now. It is forecast to get to at least 60mph before landfall near Matagoria . If the system slows forward motion it may get slightly stronger. (and the rain would hang around longer).

2-4 ft of coastal storm surge flooding is possible just to the north and east of where Bill makes landfall.

Bill is the 14th storm to form in June since 1950. And the first named storm to make landfall in mid/upper Texas since 2008 (Ike).

More to come soon.

Matagorda Beach Webcam Recording

Tropical Storm Bill Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Bill


stormplotthumb_2.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Bill (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Bill (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Bill

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Bill
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Bill -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Texas Gulf Coast Links Texas/South Plains Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Corpus Christi, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Brownsville, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Houston/Galveston, TX - Corpus Christi, TX - Browsnville/South Padre Island, TX

Louisiana Coastal Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

New Orleans, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Lake Charles, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA -

Houston/Galveston Related Links:

Texas Emergency Management

Galveston area Storm Surge Map (pdf)

Webcams:

Surfside Beach Jetty Cam

Octogon View (Surfside Beach, TX)

Matagoria Beach Webcam

League City Texas Weather Webcam

North TextVisual WebCam summary Page from HurricaneCity,com


Media:

Click2Houston/Local 2

KHOU

Galveston County The Daily News

chron.com

ABC13 KTRK

Houston Press

Power:

Center Point Energy Power Outages (Houston Area)

AEP Texas Outage map

Invest 92L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 92L


stormplotthumb_3.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 92L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 92L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 92L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 92L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 92L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

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Tropical Storm Bill Heading for Texas

Posted: 10:02 AM 13 June 2015 | 13 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 09:25 PM 15-Jun EDT

10:00PM EDT 15 June 2015 Update
The strong area of low pressure having been tracked as Invest 91L is now Tropical Storm Bill. Watches & Warnings will be issued shortly. Maximum sustained winds are about 50MPH last check, with movement to the west-northwest, or northwest.

The primary, and very significant risk with Bill, is severe inland flooding.
Ciel

10:30 am 14 June 2015 Update
The surface trough currently over the Yucatan peninsula likely will move into the Southwest Gulf of Mexico today. And aircraft recon is scheduled to take a look this afternoon (Scheduled for 5PM now). Being tracked as Invest area 91L for now.

The model runs are a good guess at the general direction, but until the system develops, I wouldn't use them on the exact track. If the system were to develop north of where it is projected, then the track would shift a bit east, with more impacts into Western Louisiana. Because of the shear it will likely encounter, most of the rainfall will likely be to the north and mostly east of where the system eventually tracks. After a set flooding rains in parts of eastern Texas, more rain is not necessarily welcome.

It may be a slow mover once it gets closer to land, making the threat of flooding a bit worse. There is some moisture being pulled in from Eastern Pacific Hurricane Carlos as well. So two possible scenarios that are that it stays on the general model track as it is now, and brings slow rainfall to the areas that don't need it, or it develops a bit further north and winds up making landfall a bit east, and includes likelihood of it getting picked up and kicked away sooner (Better solution).



Still worth it to watch anywhere from Corpus Christi to Lake Charles. Threat is mostly from rain, winds will probably be at the lower to mid range of the Tropical Storm scale.

Original Update
The area in the northwest Caribbean sea is now being watched as 91L, it is forecast to move over the Yucatan Peninsula and emerge in the western Gulf. And has multiple model support

Those along the coast in the northwestern Gulf, particularly mid to upper coastal Texas and western Louisiana should watch this system as it develops over the next several days. It will at least bring more rain to the areas (some of which really don't need it).


More to come soon.

Tropical Storm Bill Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Bill


stormplotthumb_2.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Bill (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Bill (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Bill

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Bill
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Bill -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Texas Gulf Coast Links Texas/South Plains Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Corpus Christi, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Brownsville, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Houston/Galveston, TX - Corpus Christi, TX - Browsnville/South Padre Island, TX

Louisiana Coastal Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

New Orleans, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Lake Charles, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA -

Mexican Weather

Mexican Weather Service

Coastal Mexican Radar:

Atlantic: Altamira Radar Sabancuy Radar

Pacific: Acapulco Radar Guasave Radar


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June 1st - Start of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Posted: 11:38 PM 31 May 2015 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 02:55 AM 02-Jun EDT

Today marks the official first day of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane season which runs until November 30th. This year is the twentieth year that flhurricane has been tracking storms, and amazingly for the second half of that, not a single hurricane has hit Florida.

The last hurricane of any strength to make landfall in Florida was hurricane Wilma on the morning of October 24, 2005. Only a few tropical storms have done so since then.

Tropical Storm Barry made landfall near Tampa on June 2nd, 2007 very disorganized, and only had moderate rainfall, which was much needed in that year as the draught was pretty strong, damage was minor, and West Palm Beach came away with the most rain, around 7 inches.

Most notable for Central Florida and the first storm to make landfall in Florida four times, Tropical Storm Fay made landfall in the Keys on August 18, 2008 after moving over the Dominican republic, then curved back inland over Naples on the 19th and slowly moved across the state, exiting near Melbourne and the stopping offshore of New Smyrna Beach. It managed to slowly strengthen as it moved over land since it crossed over wetlands including lake Okeechobee . On August 21, it made landfall again near New Smyrna Beach, Florida, then went west toward the Panhandle. Exiting over the gulf, to have one final landfall near Panama City Beach on August 23rd., This slow movement poured 3 feet of rain on the Melbourne area, and kept much of East Central Florida with flooding rains. 15 tornadoes spawned in Florida from Fay and 81 total (including other states).

Tropical Storm Alex on June 30th of 2010 went through the recent BP oil spill and caused a lot of it to wash up but not much rain or damage from the system

Tropical Storm Debby made landfall near Steinhatchee FL with winds of 40 MPH. It’s claim to fame though was the record-breaking river flooding that occurred throughout North Florida. Along with long tail rainbands that caused a widespread tornado outbreak for South Florida. Rainfall was 1-2 feet in the panhandle, including close to 30 inches in Wakulla County. 7 storm related deaths were confirmed in Florida with estimated damage amounts at $42.5 million

June 5th of 2013, Tropical Storm Andrea made landfall with 60mph winds, and went from Tampa through Jacksonville with heavy rain and spawned some tornadoes.

But not since 2004’s run of 4 hurricanes crossing the state (3 in central Florida) followed by Katrina and Wilma the next year in South Florida have we seen anything like that. 10 years is a long time and plenty of new residents have arrived in that time, either who have never experienced hurricanes or plenty of us who have “hurricane amnesia” where out of sight, out of mind. Just by reading this you are likely much more aware than most.

This year has been projected to be a slow year, despite having Tropical Storm Ana hit South Carolina in early May, a rare, pre-season landfall.

The slowness is generally attribute to the El Nino projections this year, which are projecting an unusually strong El Nino event in the latter part of Summer. Typically the Peak of Hurricane season runs from mid August until the first week in October. Projection numbers are low.

Slow seasons do not mean no impact, some very slow seasons that had one exceptional storm include 1972’s hurricane Agnes, 1983’s hurricane Alicia, and most memorable for Florida, Hurricane Andrew in 1992 which forever changed the state in building codes and homeowners insurance.

Conversely, the East Pacific Hurricane Season tends to be more active in El Nino events, with Hurricane Andres active right now (as a Major with annual characteristics), and Tropical Depression 2-E forming just hours ago. The Eastern Pacific season started on May 15th.

We’ll be watching the Atlantic closely again this year, and keeping the hype to a minimum. Always use this and other sites like us to supplement, but not replace official information from the National Hurricane Center.

Starting off in the Atlantic there is not much to watch, however models are indicating an area in the West Caribbean may be something to watch later in the week into next week that could bring some rain to Florida.
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Ed Dunham

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Posted: 03:19 PM 09 April 2015
The CSU initial forecast for Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity in 2015 has been released with the following lead-in comments: "We anticipate that the 2015 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be one of the least active seasons since the middle of the 20th century. It appears quite likely that an El Niño of at least moderate strength will develop this summer and fall. The tropical and subtropical Atlantic are also quite cool at present. We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean."

As of the end of February an El Nino is in place and it is expected to increase in strength with at least a moderate El Nino quite likely for the entire Atlantic hurricane season. Some of the forecast models including the ECMWF suggest that a strong El Nino event will occur. Since the end of November, 2014, SSTs in almost all of the Atlantic tropical basin have declined considerably with anomalies greater than -1.5C in some areas in the eastern Atlantic and the western Caribbean Sea. This significant shift downward in tropical Atlantic SSTs will produce another year of decreased activity in the basin and it also reduces the likelihood of any early season storms. The CSU forecast numbers are 7 tropical storms, with 3 of them becoming hurricanes with one hurricane becoming a major storm. This is one of the lowest CSU tropical cyclone forecasts that I have ever seen them issue. They also expected an ACE of 40 and a seasonal activity level at 45% of normal.

CSU lists 1991 as one of their analog years, however, with such a rapid decline in the overall Atlantic tropical SSTs, I believe that 1969 and 1991 are no longer valid analogs. My new analog years are:

1. 1977 - Atlantic activity was 6/5/1 ....... EASTPAC activity was 8/4/0
2. 1959 - Atlantic activity was 10/6/2 ...... EASTPAC activity was 15/5/3
3. 1953 - Atlantic activity was 13/6/4 ...... EASTPAC activity was 4/2/0

The updated averages for these analog years is 10/6/2 - which is close to my current forecast of 9/6/2. (updated on 5/30 to 8/3/1)

TSR also issued its updated forecast for the Atlantic basin and lowered their forecast totals to 11/5/2 with the following comments: "The TSR forecast has been reduced, since early December 2014, due to updated climate signals indicating that the tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea in August-September 2015 will likely be cooler than normal and cooler than thought previously. Should the TSR forecast for 2015 verify it would mean that the ACE index total for 2013-2015 was easily the lowest 3-year total since 1992-1994 and it would imply that the active phase of Atlantic hurricane activity which began in 1995 has likely ended. However, it should be stressed that the precision of hurricane outlooks issued in April is low and that large uncertainties remain for the 2015 hurricane season."

As the season gets underway, keep an eye on the level of activity in the EASTPAC. If it starts to look like the Eastern Pacific is going to have a busy year, then 1953 can be discarded as an analog year for the Atlantic - which means that the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season could be mighty quiet - especially if the tropical Atlantic SST cooling trend continues into the Summer.

Remember that you can post your own forecast of seasonal numbers in the Storm Forum until the season starts on June 1st.
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