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The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane season is over. 2015's run June 1st-Nov 30th, 2015.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 238 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3413 (9 y 4 m) (Wilma)
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Flhurricane starts the 20th Year

Posted: 12:32 AM 01 January 2015 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 09:08 AM 16-Jan EDT

2015 marks the 20th year flhurricane has been tracking storms, and with a 9 year Florida hurricane drought, we hope we can make it the 10th consecutive season without a landfalling hurricane.

Flhurricane started as an offshoot of the outdoor sportsman BBS in 1995 and quickly became its own entity. The domain name flhurricane happened in 1998, and we started archiving in 1996. We were among some of the first hurricane sites around, and started with the blog/news format in 1996.

To mention some others back then, Jim Williams at Hurricane City was also one of the first internet sites to cover hurricanes nearly exclusively and is also still going strong, Jim started with the real audio broadcasts back when it was new. Some newspapers started forums that splintered off into their own things (storm2k) and others. Some of the others back in the early days were Snonut, Erik Blake from Atlantic Tropical Weather Center (who now works at the National Hurricane Centeri Gary Gray from Millennium Weather was one of the first to bring hurricane models to the masses, including his own Trantech model at the time.. And Jeff Masters/Weather Underground was still forming then.

Since then some other very great authors and sites have come, and a few are still around.

With Katrina and Wilma, 2005 was the busiest year for this site, and that was after the followup from 2004 with the 4 hurricanes that crossed Florida. and we hope to not repeat it. Since then it's been mostly going on our own momentum and gracious donations over the years. It will continue, although the popularity waned a bit, so did the hurricanes, and the time worked on the site.

We also wish to thank all the contributors and moderators over the years!

The 2015 hurricane season starts on June 1st, and runs through November 30th.

More to come this year!
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Ed Dunham

End of an Era

Posted: 02:40 PM 01 September 2014
It is beginning to look like the era of 'high spin cycle' tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin that started in 1995 has run its course with only three named storms recorded through the end of August. There were hints of that demise last year with a below normal level of hurricane development, i.e., only two Cat I storms - the last time that the Atlantic only had two hurricanes in a season was 1982. The last time that a season had three or less named storms by August 31st was in 1994 - the last year of the previous 'quiet cycle' in the Atlantic.

In the 45 seasons from 1950-2014 there were 17 seasons that only had three named storms by August 31st, so its not an unusual event, but it is unusual that the last one was 20 years ago. At the other end of the activity spectrum, in 1995, 2005, 2011 and 2012 there were 12 named storms by August 31st. Here are the previous 16 seasons since 1950 with three or less named storms prior to September 1st along with activity totals for those years, totals for the following year, and hurricane landfall statistics for the 16 seasons:

Year - # by 8/31 - total activity - following year - U.S. landfalls - FL landfalls
1952 2 6/6/3 13/6/4 1 0
1956 3 8/4/2 7/3/2 1 1
1957 2 7/3/2 10/7/5 1 0
1961 1 11/8/7 5/3/1 2 0
1962 2 5/3/1 9/7/2 0 0
1963 2 9/7/2 12/6/6 1 0
1965 3 6/4/1 11/7/3 1 0
1967 1 8/6/1 8/4/0 1 0
1977 1 6/5/1 12/5/2 1 0
1980 3 11/9/2 12/7/3 1 0
1982 3 6/2/1 4/3/1 0 0
1983 2 4/3/1 13/5/1 1 0
1987 3 7/3/1 11/5/3 1 1
1991 2 8/4/2 7/4/1 1 0
1992 2 7/4/1 7/3/1 1 1
1994 3 7/3/0 19/11/5* 0 0

Average 2 7/5/2 9/5/2 1 0
(*1995 was not included in the 'following year' average since 1995 was the start of the active cycle.)

Note that although these were all slow starting years (and mostly quiet years), every season except 1994 had at least one major hurricane. Although these were mostly quiet years, only three of them did not have a U.S. landfalling hurricane, while in Florida only three seasons had a landfalling hurricane. In the following year, one season had normal activity while seven seasons were above normal and seven seasons had below normal named storm activity, i.e., no correlation to the previous year. On average, based on the 16 seasons that started with three named storms (or less) by August 31st, this season would be expected to have four more named storms - with a minimum of one more and a maximum of eight more.

Since the lack of activity cannot be blamed on an El Nino event (it has not yet started), it is increasingly likely that the period of Atlantic high tropical cyclone activity has ended. However, it is important to remember that the likelihood of a U.S. hurricane landfall is about the same (approximately 22%) during a 'quiet cycle' era as it is during an 'active cycle' era - and that is also true for a Florida hurricane landfall (about 5%).
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