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Nothing currently in the Atlantic Basin, for Late October the West Caribbean is usually where to monitor.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 10 (Nate) , Major: 28 (Maria) Florida - Any: 37 (Irma) Major: 37 (Irma)
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Ophelia Azores, Ireland, N. Ireland, Scotland

Posted: 07:24 AM 10 October 2017 | 6 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 09:54 AM 17-Oct EDT

12 PM Update 14 October 2017
Ophelia has become the sixth Major of this Hyperactive 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

While likely undergoing or having completed extratropical transition, Ophelia is now expected to enter Ireland at hurricane intensity, with an ever-expanding wind field.
Quote:

48H 16/1200Z 51.5N 11.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP





7 AM Update 13 October 2017

Ophelia is moving the east northeast currently as a category 2 hurricane and should move just east o the Azores, after this it may be near or over Ireland as an extra tropical storm (similar to what Sandy was right at landfall in New Jersey) If the forecast holds as is, it's possible for storm surge and strong winds to show up along the western coast of Ireland.on Monday, and later Scotland on Tuesday. It wouldn't be a tropical system at that time, but it still would have a lot of the energy. There is still a great deal of uncertainty at that range of the forecast.



There have been other tropical systems that have gone on to Ireland or the UK before, including Debbie in 1961, but they are extremely rare. Katia in 2011 was another example.

Additionally there is a system east of the lesser Antilles with a 20% chance for development over the next 4 days, this area would likely curve north away fromt he islands, but Bermuda may still need to watch it.

Opheliia Links

Met Eireann -- Irish Meteorological Service
United Kingdom Meteorological Service

Original Update
Tropical Storm Ophelia is active in the far east Atlantic, and expected to remain there well away from any land areas. It is forecast to become ahurricane, but only affect shipping.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic there is not immediately threats of development, and nothing obvious in the mid range either. The areas to typically watch are the Gulf, West Atlantic and especially the Western Caribbean (where Nate came from), but none of these areas currently have anything going on. Things tend to change fairly quick in October, though, so it's worth keeping up with every few days. The season starts to wind down around the last week of October, so with a little luck Nate may be the last landfall we'll deal with this year.

But, there still remains a good amount of energy left, so there's still a very good chance that something else could form before the season is done.

We'll be watching.

Ophelia Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Ophelia


stormplotthumb_17.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Ophelia (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Ophelia (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Ophelia

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Ophelia
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Ophelia -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


92L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 92L


stormplotthumb_18.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 92L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 92L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 92L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 92L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 92L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

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Hurricane Nate in the Gulf

Posted: 08:36 AM 07 October 2017 | 7 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 05:19 AM 08-Oct EDT

11:A0AM EDT 8 October 2017 Update
Nate made landfall overnight near Biloxi, MS after a brief clip of extreme Southeastern Louisiana. As a category 1 hurricane. Storm surge was seen in areas near the center and east of it, and now it is decaying over Northern Alabama bringing some flooding rains.

Another area in the East Atlantic may develop (91L), but it should remain far away from land areas.

5:30PM CDT 7 October 2017 Update
Nate's intensification has leveled off as a cat 1 borderline cat 2, and appears to making a run for the Mississippi Gulf coast.

Original Update
Hurricane Nate is currently an 85MPH category 1 hurricane and is forecast to be a category 2 hurricane by the time it makes landfall near Louisana/Mississipp late tonight. There exists a possibility this afternoon that it could strengthen more than expected, so please prepare as if it were a category 3 hurricane in the area and hope it stays weaker.

Nate should be landfalling in a very storm surge prone area, with 3-10 feet of surge possible in some areas along the Gulf coast. See The storm surge inundation map



For preparations, the problem is time, there's not much of it as rain is already beginning to impact parts of Louisiana, and this will spread east as the day goes on. Those in the area have until early afternoon.

It's worth noting that the eastern side of the storm is very strong, whereas te western side is fairly weak. Those on the west side of nate's eye will see much less impacts from those in to a fair bit east of the center of Nate. Partially due to rapid forward motion, where winds are added and driving surge onshore on the "right" side of the storm, and blowing offshore/weaker on the "left" side of the storm.

Please listen to local officials and media for more information. There are a few links below for some of it.

The flurricane twitter feed also rapid fires out additional information from various sources http://twitter.com/cfhc

Model discussions and more in the Nate Forecast Lounge.

Additionally invest 91L is in the northeast Atlantic and has a 70% chance to develop, likely staying away from land.

Nate Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Nate


stormplotthumb_16.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Nate (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Nate (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Nate

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Nate
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Nate -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Mississippi/Alabama Gulf Coast Media/Links

WLOX TV 13 (ABC) Biloxi

WXXV TV 25 (Fox)Biloxi

WKRG TV 5 (CBS) Mobile

WPMI TV 15 (NBC) Mobile

WALA TV 10 (Fox) Mobile

WEAR TV 3 (ABC) Pensacola, FL

Newspapers

Mobile Register (Al.com) paper

Biloxi Sun Herald paper

Gulf Live

Radio (some)

News Talk 104.9 Biloxi, MS (Radio)

News talk 106.5 Mobile, AL (Radio)

Power Outage

Mississippi Power Outage Map

Alabama Power Outage Map

Louisiana Information

Govt/Official Info:

Louisiana Emergency Management

Mississippi Emergency Management

Alabama Emergency Management

Louisiana Dept. of Transportation - Road Closures, Traffic Cams, etc.

Mississippi - Road Closures, Traffic Cams, etc

Alabama Road Conditions and Traffic Cameras


Media Newspapers/TV/Radio:

Nola.com New Orleans Times-Picayune

WWL TV 4 (CBS Affiliate in New Orleans)

ABC 26 TV (ABC Affiliate in New Orleans)

WDSU Channel 6 (NBC Affiliate New Orleans)

Fox 8 (New Orleans)

WTIX 690 News Radio

WWL 870 News Radio

WTOK 11 / Missippii Alabama ABC Affiliate

WKRG 5 in Mobile/Pensacola

WPMI Channel 15 from Mobile

North Gulf Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

New Orleans, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Lake Charles, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA - Houston/Galveston, TX

Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

Various recordings for Nate

Ophelia Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Ophelia


stormplotthumb_17.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Ophelia (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Ophelia (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Ophelia

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Ophelia
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Ophelia -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)



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Nate now a Hurricane, Moving Quickly into the Gulf

Posted: 12:10 AM 04 October 2017 | 16 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 01:15 PM 07-Oct EDT

111:45PM EDT Update 6 October 2017 Update
Based on recon and satellite, Nate is now a hurricane, and has a good shot for strengthening tomorrow, and possibly by quite a bit.

Those in the hurricane warning area should check local Media and officials for more information, as you will only havbe a portion of the day tomorrow to finish up preparations.

5PM EDT Update 6 October 2017 Update
Tropical storm Nate continues its movement to the north northwest, moving pretty rapidly now with landfall forecast to happen overnight Saturday into Sunday just east of New Orleans, it's a bit stronger this afternoon, approaching hurricane strength, and it has a window tomorrow afternoon to rapidly intensify before landfall, so those along the coast in the Hurricane Warning area should make preparations tomorrow if they aren't done already today, as it will rapidly approach tomorrow night.

Storm surge is forecast to be 5-8 ft in some areas, please consult local officials and media for more information for your exact area. See the Storm Surge Inundation Map also.

Satellite presentation is much better tonight than yesterday.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Pinar del Rio
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line.



A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East of the the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Isle of Youth

7:15PM EDT Update 5 October 2017 Update

Nate is becoming more of a threat to the north Central Gulf and New Orleans and points to the east in MS/AL. Portions of the Gulf coast may have hurricane watches issued tomorrow, for an eventual Sunday landfall in the north Gulf coast. Although the official forecast is for an 80mph hurricane, there exists a decent possibility (with extremely warm water the storm is passing over) that the storm could rapidly intensify over the Gulf, so do not take this likely in the hurricane watch/warning area and listen to local government officials and media.

8AM EDT Update 5 October 2017 Update
TD#16 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Nate.

5AM EDT Update 5 October 2017 Update

Hurricane watches are now up in Mexico from Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico in the Yucatan, as the possibility exists that the system could reach hurricane strength before nearing the Yucatan.

The official forecast track has shifted west to now Include the tip of the Yucatan and later eastern Louisiana to Panama City, centered near the Alabama/Mississippi border. In short the storm or hurricane is likely to impact the North Central Gulf Coast.

11AM EDT Update 4 October 2017 Update
90L is now being Tracked as Tropical Depression 16, a Hurricane is forecast for Sunday in the region of the Florida Panhandle and Alabama, centered near Panama City. It is forecast to become Tropical Storm Nate later today or tomorrow.

The cone ranges from Mississippi to Florida just north of Tampa, currently centered just east of Panama City, FL. The forecast is fairly low confidence so the entire Gulf should be watching as well.

The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Nicaragua from Sandy Bay Sirpi northward to the Honduras border.

The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla eastward to the border with Nicaragua.

6AM EDT Update 4 October 2017 Update
This week we have an area in the Western Caribbean, east of Nicaragua that is starting to organize, currenlty with an 80% chance for development over the next 5 days. This area is being tracked as 90L right now, and could become a depression or storm later today or tomorrow. Interests in Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the progress of this system over the next few days.

Beyond that it is likely to impact somewhere along the Gulf, either north Central or Northeastern Gulf, from Louisiana to Florida Potentially as a strong Tropical storm or Hurricane . If it does develop it is likely to become sheared right before a landfall, potentially on or close to Sunday. Those along the Gulf coast would be wise to monitor it, see the forecast lounge for model discussion and speculation.

Air Force Reserve reconnaissance is scheduled to fly into the are this afternoon, so chances are National Hurricane Center issued advisories could start to be issued this evening.



There is also another area north of Cuba which is bringing the windy conditions to Florida, but that is much less likely to develop, with a 10% chance for tropical development. Still enough to bring some rain to South Florida and parts of Central Florida. Although much less likely to develop, it is worth watching.

Original Update




Conditions for development from the Caribbean into the Gulf have been on the rise, and over the past few days a substantial Central American Gyre (CAG) has been forming, dramatically enhancing the background vorticity in the region, while also spinning out vortices - a few in the eastern Pacific - and a few much closer to home. The most noteworthy of these being newly-tagged Invest 90L. And it's definitely one to watch.

Air Force Reserve reconnaissance is scheduled to fly into 90L Wednesday afternoon, and there are fairly good odds that they could find 90L a tropical cyclone by then.

A second feature, a trough of low pressure located near central Cuba and extending into the Straits of Florida, though not yet Invest tagged, is conservatively given 10% Tropical Cyclogenesis odds by NHC. Conservatively, as conditions overall through the western Atlantic are becoming considerably more favorable for development. This system has already been producing gusts to tropical storm force in squalls. This trof may actually consolidate a little bit east of its current "X" location, and have more time to cook. Keeping watch for a potential upside surprise.

90L Model Discussions and more - 90L Forecast Lounge



Nate Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Nate


stormplotthumb_16.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Nate (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Nate (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Nate

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Nate
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Nate -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Mississippi/Alabama Gulf Coast Media/Links

WLOX TV 13 (ABC) Biloxi

WXXV TV 25 (Fox)Biloxi

WKRG TV 5 (CBS) Mobile

WPMI TV 15 (NBC) Mobile

WALA TV 10 (Fox) Mobile

WEAR TV 3 (ABC) Pensacola, FL

Newspapers

Mobile Register (Al.com) paper

Biloxi Sun Herald paper

Gulf Live

Radio (some)

News Talk 104.9 Biloxi, MS (Radio)

News talk 106.5 Mobile, AL (Radio)

Power Outage

Mississippi Power Outage Map

Alabama Power Outage Map

Louisiana Information

Govt/Official Info:

Louisiana Emergency Management

Mississippi Emergency Management

Alabama Emergency Management

Louisiana Dept. of Transportation - Road Closures, Traffic Cams, etc.

Mississippi - Road Closures, Traffic Cams, etc

Alabama Road Conditions and Traffic Cameras


Media Newspapers/TV/Radio:

Nola.com New Orleans Times-Picayune

WWL TV 4 (CBS Affiliate in New Orleans)

ABC 26 TV (ABC Affiliate in New Orleans)

WDSU Channel 6 (NBC Affiliate New Orleans)

Fox 8 (New Orleans)

WTIX 690 News Radio

WWL 870 News Radio

WTOK 11 / Missippii Alabama ABC Affiliate

WKRG 5 in Mobile/Pensacola

WPMI Channel 15 from Mobile

North Gulf Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

New Orleans, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Lake Charles, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA - Houston/Galveston, TX

Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

Article Icon

Maria, Lee and What May Be

Posted: 01:22 PM 24 September 2017 | 6 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 09:54 PM 29-Sep EDT

10PM EDT Update 1 October 2017
There are no active storms in the Atlantic basin. It's about time.

2PM EDT Update 27 September 2017

Maria is beginning to move away from the US and out to sea. Hurricane Lee is now a major hurricane, but will also stay out to sea.

Another area south of Cuba currently is forecast to move north of Cuba and deepen, either as a frontal or possibly subtropical low, which will likely bring rain to South Florida and central Florida, and make it generally windy over the weekend, then it likely will move back to the west over Central Florida. How strong it gets is up in the air, but it is something to watch closely over the next few days.

There's a 20% chance it develops over the next 5 days right now, so it likely will just bring rain and some wind.



90L West Carib Low Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 90L


stormplotthumb_16.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 90L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 90L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 90L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 90L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 90L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Original Update


There will never be another hurricane named Maria, and while a beautiful name and a gorgeous cyclone, it's safe to say that 2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone 15L "Maria" will not be missed.

Maria is not done yet, and interests along the east coast need to pay very close attention over the next few days, as even if Maria does not come ashore along or near the Outer Banks (increasingly possible - in fact with many of the model ensembles showing this) her effects are and will still be felt in the form of dangerous rip currents, high swells and blustery wind and rain. Stay tuned, and ready to prepare to take more action as her Cone of Uncertainty has continued to include the OBX, and may still shift west.

Elsewhere, Lee, having gone from TD to Tropical Storm, to just a remnant, is now a very powerful, very compact hurricane, conservatively estimated to have 90 MPH maximum sustained winds at the time of this post, making Lee the 8th Hurricane of this hyperactive 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. This one will probably stay well at out sea, but may have some impact on Maria's steering currents, as it is plenty strong to impact the other features in that region, despite the small size. In fact, it would not be shocking to see Lee become one of the Majors. Without recon going all the way out there to sample him, unless he should start to threaten land of course, we would have to rely mostly on satellite estimates to make this determination. We have the technology...

Looking ahead to next week, solid models are already honing in on increasing potential for new tropical cyclone formations. The first place to find out if we have identified a specific feature or Invest worth tracking will be in the 2017 Forecast Lounge , and we hope you will also join us there.

Maria Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Maria


stormplotthumb_15.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Maria (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Maria (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Maria

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Maria
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Maria -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Lee Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Lee


stormplotthumb_14.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Lee (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Lee (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Lee

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Lee
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Lee -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

Article Icon

Center of Maria Moving Away from the Bahamas

Posted: 05:18 PM 17 September 2017 | 26 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 01:34 PM 21-Sep EDT

9AM EDT 23 September 2017 Update

Maria is moving away from the Bahamas, but has expanded a bit in size, it is forecast to move generally north to north northwest over the next few days and be at its closest approach to Cape Hatteras on Wednesday, landfall is not expected, but portions of the outer banks may see some outer effects of Maria.

Those along the coast in North Carolina and northward should continue to watch Maria, but direct landfall is not expected. Its too soon to tell how much impact may occur, however.



6AM EDT 22 September 2017 Update

From here all the models, save the CMC, take Maria out to sea. With Wednesday being the key day for any potential surprises based on that. However, with so much going against it it appears out to sea remains the most likely scenario.

Maria is passing just to the east of the Turks and Caicos today, close enough for them to feel many of the affects. Beyond that North Carolina and Bermuda will want to keep an eye on it, but it appears neither will see direct impacts (other than heavy surf, minor coastal flooding, and rip currents)

8PM EDT 20 September 2017 Update



Maria's eye is clearing out again. The mountains of Puerto Rico did disrupt it, but did not destroy it. Maria is likely to restrengthen some (probably not to cat 5 again as it'll be going over the waters stirred up by Irma), and may get very close or the western side to the Turks and Caicos, but the NHC's track seems good. She's very likely to stay well east of Florida.

Puerto Rico was absolutely devastated though, and it's still raining in parts that flooded (and flooded well beyond record flood levels)

1:15PM EDT 20 September 2017 Update
The center of Hurricane Maria is starting to exit PR this afternoon, but horrendous flooding rain, surge and brutal wind gusts will continue for hours yet to come - with inland flooding, rock and mudslides possibly lingering well beyond this week.

Initial recon data suggests that interaction with mountainous Puerto Rico has significantly diminished the hurricane, with minimum pressure now up to an extrapolated low 960s range, but this disruption is forecast to give way by tonight, with most models forecasting restrengthening, yet again, as Maria once again encounters a favorable to very favorable environment for intensification.

A coming brush with a Cat 4 or even 5 Maria for the Turks & Caicos can not be ruled out.

7:15AM EDT 20 September 2017 Update
Maria makes landfall near Yabucoa, PR and is over the island now. Power, Communication, radar and more are out in much of the eastern half of the Island. 155mph was the official windspeed, making it a category 4 (just under 5) at landfall.



7:00PM EDT 19 September 2017 Update
Recon recently reported 909mb pressure with 175mph winds.
The pressure makes this the #10 strongest (by pressure) ever recorded hurricane in the Atlantic basin.



2:30PM EDT 19 September 2017 Update

Quote:

POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MARIA MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TOWARD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. PREPARATIONS AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL FLOODING AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. - NHC



After the temporary disruption and loss of Category 5 status from having gone directly over the tall island nation of Dominca, Hurricane Maria has resumed Rapid Intensification, with recon now finding a minimum central pressure down to 920mb, with maximum sustained winds of about 165 MPH. Continued strengthening is very possible, and Maria could still be a Cat 5 (or potentially even a high-end Five) when she passes over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and that is in fact now reflected in the official NHC forecast.


8:00PM EDT 18 September 2017 Update
Maria is now an extremely dangerous, super compact Cat Five Major about to make landfall on Dominica.

5:00PM EDT 18 September 2017 Update
Maria is now a compact and violent 130 MPH Cat IV Major - still intensifying - with her center closing in on Dominica. With Maria's continued dramatic strengthening and very supportive conditions for additional strengthening ahead, it is becoming likely that Maria impacts - possibly directly - the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as a very high-end Major - possibly even a high-end Five.

NHC
Quote:

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 60.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES




Preparations to protect life should now be rushed to completion on the islands of Dominica, Guadeloupe and Martinique. On Maria's likely track, preparations to protect life and property should be nearing completion on the VIs and PR. Failure to take advantage of well-built hurricane shelters will almost certainly result in injury or even death.

HURRICANE MARIA
Recon has found that Maria is now a Hurricane. Conditions are alarmingly favorable that the cyclone could be or will soon be undergoing Rapid Intensification, and it is likely that Maria will be yet another very serious Major while on a trajectory that could take it directly over several of the islands recently impacted to greater or lesser degrees by Irma.

SUMMARY OF MARIA WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
Quote:


A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Antigua and Barbuda
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Lucia

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines




For in-depth Maria model talk and more beyond the cone with us in the HURRICANE Maria Lounge

HURRICANE JOSE
Hurricane Jose continues its track to the north, with a bend to the northeast, then east, and southeast expected over the next several days. Should Jose continue on as forecast, the strongest impacts to the Northeast US may be kept offshore - however, dangerous swells generated by Jose are already affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. Dangerous surf and rip currents should be expected for days to come in these locations. In addition, Jose is forecast produce heavy rain totals over eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. Any deviation to the left of NHC's track would increase the likelihood that even greater impacts to the US coast would likely be experienced.

SUMMARY OF JOSE WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
Quote:


A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Fenwick Island to Sandy Hook
* Delaware Bay South
* East Rockaway Inlet to Plymouth
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket




For in-depth Jose model talk and more join us in the HURRICANE Jose Lounge

Maria Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Maria


stormplotthumb_15.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Maria (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Maria (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Maria

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Maria
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Maria -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Jose Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Jose


stormplotthumb_12.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Jose (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Jose (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Jose

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Jose
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Jose -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Northeast US Radar Links Northeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Dover, DE Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mt. Holly, NJ Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Upton/NYC/Long Island, NY Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Boston/Cape Cod, MA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Portland, ME Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Carabou, ME Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Lee Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Lee


stormplotthumb_14.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Lee (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Lee (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Lee

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Lee
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Lee -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA


Facebook Update Posted
11:01 am 16-Oct-2017 EDT

#92L with 40% Odds. Likely to Recurve. #Ophelia Heading to Ireland as a Powerful Post-Tropical Hurricane-Force Storrm

Facebook Update Posted
10:54 pm 15-Oct-2017 EDT

Storm Downgraded: Cat 1 Hurricane #OPHELIA toPost-Tropical #OPHELIA 49.2N 13.3W Wind 85MPH Moving N at 44 MPH https://t.co/FzVY78nEBv

Facebook Update Posted
10:46 am 15-Oct-2017 EDT

Storm Downgraded: Cat 2 Hurricane #OPHELIA to Cat 1 Hurricane #OPHELIA 41.6N 16.0W Wind 90MPH Moving NNE at 38 MPH https://t.co/R249huryhF

Facebook Update Posted
04:43 am 15-Oct-2017 EDT

Storm Downgraded: Cat 3 Hurricane #OPHELIA to Cat 2 Hurricane #OPHELIA 39.0N 18.3W Wind 105MPH Moving NE at 35 MPH https://t.co/R249huryhF

Facebook Update Posted
12:21 pm 14-Oct-2017 EDT

#Ophelia becomes 6th Major of this Hyperactive Season. Forecast to bring #Hurricane Force winds near or over #Ireland. #92L still cooking

Facebook Update Posted
10:40 am 14-Oct-2017 EDT

Storm Upgraded: Cat 2 Hurricane #OPHELIA to Cat 3 Hurricane #OPHELIA 34.8N 26.6W Wind 115MPH Moving NE at 25 MPH https://t.co/TFUkRWv1Uj

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