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Hurricane Isaias landfalls in Ocean Isle Beach, NC. Those along and just to the right of the path through the NE US should watch out.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 0 (Isaias) , Major: 663 (Michael) Florida - Any: 663 (Michael) Major: 663 (Michael)
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Isaias Forms South of Puerto Rico

Posted: 10:59 AM 28 July 2020 | 17 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 06:06 PM 31-Jul EDT

5PM EDT Update 2 August 2020
Tropical Storm Isaias has strengthened a bit, Enough for Hurricane Watches from Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC and now tropical storm watches extend all the way up the east coast to Rhode Island. Isaias has around 32 hours over water before landfall around 2am Tuesday, enough to potentially restrengthen before landfall to a hurricane, shear conditions improve for it once the system is north of Jacksonville, FL. Those in North Carolina, particularly at and just east of the landfall point, should prepare for potential hurricane impacts, as it may reach hurricane strength before landfall. Listen to local media and officials for more information.

The system has managed to stay offshore of Florida enough for the majority of the bad weather to remain offshore, with Florida only receiving a few rain bands today.

8AM EDT Update 2 August 2020
The Hurricane Warnings along the coast have been replaced with Tropical Storm Warnings, Isaias is no longer forecast to regain strength after its last realistic chance to restrengthen has passed. With the system as sheared as it is on the west side, effects in Florida will be limited to a few bands coming ashore (which may be the worst part for many) and some minor surge and a little bit worse weather right along the coast. If another blowup occurs, the rainfall near where it happens will be extremely heavy, but this is mostly for those immediately on the track itself.

Further up the coast, The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward along the southeast United States coast to South Santee River South Carolina.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Edisto Beach South Carolina northward to Cape Fear North Carolina.

And the Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward to Surf City, North Carolina.

Those east of the landfall point in North Carolina will likely get the heaviest rains outside of the Bahamas.

5PM EDT Update 31 July 2020

Track shifts west on Isaias, Florida under warnings. Tropical Depression 10 develops off Africa.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the east coast of Florida from Boca Raton to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line and from south of Boca Raton to Hallendale Beach.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the east coast of Florida from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedre Beach.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedre Beach.

Additionally TD#10 in the east Atlantic dissipated before gaining a name.

11AM EDT Update 31 July 2020
Hurricane Watches are now up for Florida, from north of Deerfield Beach northward to the Volusia-Brevard County Line. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for portions of the Florida east coast from north of Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian Inlet and for Lake Okeechobee.

Winds have dropped to 75mph, but movement is to the west northwest. At the closest approach to Florida, the forecast windspeed is 85mph. 90mph while closer to the Bahamas.

6AM Update 31 July 2020

Isaias became a hurricane overnight when recon found 80mph winds at the surface, it remains there this morning. The future track is still a bit uncertain as it has only recently recovered from the crossing of the island of Hispaniola.

The biggest change overnight because of the hurricane upgrade that this forced hurricane warnings for all of the Bahamas. The system will come very close to Florida, and this likely will cause additional tropical storm or hurricane watches/warnings for more parts of the coast later today.

The west side of systems tend to be weaker (not always, however) coming from this direction, so the further east Isaias remains offshore the better. The same general idea of the forecast seems ok now, but any shift west would bring the east coast of Florida closer to the bad conditions. Shear is expected to possibly weaken the system as it gets closer to Florida, so that may keep things in check. The major difference between the models seems to be how quickly or not the system moves by, with the GFS side moving fast, while the Euro side slows it down more. This is the difference of Sunday morning for the GFS suite to be closest to Florida, or Monday morning for the European Suite. So there remains some degree of uncertainty in the future there. The official forecast currently favors Sunday morning for the closest Florida approach.4

The possibility that the storm effects parts of the coast from Florida all the way to New England does exist, so folks north of there, Particularly in eastern North Carolina, but also Long island to Cape Cod, and potentially Maine/Nova Scotia, should probably watch the progress on this system as well. (Anywhere in the cone)

11PM Update 30 July 2020
Recon finds winds of 80mph in now Hurricane Isaias, a special advisory will soon be issued.

5PM Update 30 July 2020
Isaias is now near the north central section of the Dominican Republic and about to reenter the water fairly soon, it is moving rapidly NW or WNW at 20MPH currently. Tropical Storm watches are now up for Florida from Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian Inlet.

A hurricane is now forecast to develop near Andros island on the Bahmas, and it may impact the coast of North Carolina on Monday.

The Tropical Storm Warnings for the central and northwest Bahamas may be upgraded to Hurricane Warnings this evening or tonight.

9AM Update 30 July 2020

Isaias is approaching the Dominican republic and a lot of question remains around what will happen to the system after it passes, models are split between Florida and no Florida impacts and it will be difficult to determine until the system is a bit past the island of Hispaniola and we find where the new center settles.

93L is also being tracked in the far east Atlantic, with a 20% chance for development.

11PM Update 29 July 2020
PTC 9 is finally Tropical Storm Isaias. Forming Southwest of the earlier 8PM point at 15.8N 67.0W but moving west northwest overall.

The government of the Bahamas has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch for the Central Bahamas to a Tropical Storm Warning and has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the Northwestern Bahamas. Watches for Portions of Florida may be issued tomorrow.

July 29th, is the earliest an Atlantic "I" storm has formed since naming storms started, Irene in 2005 formed on August 4th, which was the prior record holder.

Usually systems that pass over the very tall mountains of Hispaniola get torn up, but since Isaias has such a broad wind field, the weakening will probably not be as significant as usual. This could mean more center reformations may occur.

Therefore it is unlikely to have a clear picture of what the US land impacts may be until Isaias is north of the Caribbean islands.

11PM Update 28 July 2020
PTC 9's center relocated a bit south and west of earlier, shifting the track west. It's now forecast to cross PR and parts of the Dominican Republic, it still may form into a Tropical Storm tomorrow as there is enough convection to do that, but countered by the fact its booking WNW at 25mph.

Land interaction with Hispaniola will impact it but the speed it's moving and the disorganization may make the impact less than typical for a well organized system. The best conditions for development would be after it cross Hispaniola and moves south of the Bahamas.

The models will likely contiinue to have a difficult time handling this system, particularly on the intensity side as the NHC calls out the fact that GFS-and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity guidance shows considerable southwesterly shear, when north of Hispaniola, however it winds up being self induced outflow issues due to the sheer size of the system, therefore the intensity estimates may be on the low side closer to Florida. .

It is worth watching anywhere in the watch warning area or cone or just outside it. The Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the Turks and Caicos Islands for this system.

Original Update

Advisories have begun on Potential Tropical Cyclone 9, formerly Invest 92L in order to enable watches to be issued for some of the islands.

Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for:
Puerto Rico, Barbuda, Virgin Islands, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, Saba, St. Eustatius

Recon is scheduled to check it out later today, and an upgrade may occur then... if a closed, well defined low-level circulation exists..

The current NHC Forecast (granted with a lot of uncertainty in both track and intensity) shows a potential threat to the Bahamas and Florida. The final forecast point is inland near West Palm beach with 60mph winds.

*** It cannot be stressed enough that since the system is still in the formative stage, greater than average uncertainty exists regarding both the short-term and longer-term track and intensity forecasts. ***

It should be noted that a stronger cyclone is likely to favor a more northern track, while a weaker system is likely to remain more equatorward. Folks should remember that the long-term average NHC track forecast errors at days 4 and 5 are 140 and 175 n mi, respectively.

See the forecast lounge for model discussion and what ifs.

Eastern NC/OBX/Hampton Roads Media:

North Carolina Power Outage Map

Star News Online (Wilmington)

Outer Banks Sentinel

Hampton Roads Pilot

WWAY TV 3 Wilmington, NC (ABC)

WECT TV 6 Wilmington, NC (NBC)

Fox Wilmington (FOX)

WILM TV 10 Wilmington, NC (CBS)

WITN 7 - Eastern North Carolina TV (NBC)

WCTI 12 - Eastern North Carolina (ABC)

WNCT TV 9 - Eastern North Carolina (CBS)

Wavy 10 (NBC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA TV

WTKR 3 (CBS) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA

WVEC 13 (ABC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

Power Outage Maps: South Carolina Power Outage Map North Carolina Power Outage Map Virginia Power Outage Map

Isaias Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Isaias - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Isaias


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Isaias (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Isaias (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Isaias

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Isaias
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Isaias -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Tropical Depression Ten Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 10 - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 10


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 10 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 10 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 10

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 10
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 10 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Invest 94L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 94L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 94L


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



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Late July Activity

Posted: 11:26 AM 21 July 2020 | 8 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 10:10 PM 24-Jul EDT

7:00AM CDT Update 25 July 2020
Hanna found to be a hurricane by recon this morning, landfall likely between Corpus Cristi and Brownsville.

Gonzalo still remains very weak.

92L is up to a 60% chance to develop over the next 5 days.]

In Hawaii, Douglas has raised Hurricane watches for the Big Island, Maui, and Oahu.

10:00PM CDT Update 24 July 2020
Tropical Storm Hanna has strengthened to a 65mph Tropical storm tonight, it's likely to become a hurricane sometime tomorrow morning. Although the NHC forecasts a 75 mph hurricane, they note that the peak intensity could be higher than what is
shown since landfall is expected to occur between the 12 and 24 hour forecast times.

Because of this and the slight shift south in position, the Hurricane Warning has been extended southward to Port Mansfield Texas. The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to High Island Texas. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning north of Barra el Mezquital to the Mouth of Rio Grande.

Those in Texas should prepare for a potent hurricane with serious flooding risks as best they can since this increased more rapidly that originally forecast. Pay attention to local media and officials for the best information for your particular area.



9:00PM CDT Update 24 July 2020
Hanna may be close to becoming a hurricane tonight. Important updates are likely coming soon from NHC. The prospect that Hanna comes in significantly stronger than forecast is now a distinct possibility. One can also follow along with additional information and model talk in the Hanna Forecast Lounge
Ciel

4:30PM CDT Update 24 July 2020
Hanna is now forecast to be a Hurricane at landfall, and Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings have been issued for portions of the south Texas Coast. With the core appearing better on radar. If you are in the warning area, please be mindful of local media and officials.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Baffin Bay northward to Mesquite Bay, Texas.

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Baffin Bay to Sargent, Texas, including Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay and Matagorda Bay.

11AM Update 22 July 2020
SEVEN is rapidly organizing and has become the earliest seventh named storm in the Atlantic on record, besting even 2005's Gert by two days. Gonzalo is a small, compact and well organized system, and as such, may continue to intensify counter to the global models, which all but missed this cyclone entirely. In fact, NHC now calls for further strengthening and for the cyclone to become a hurricane prior to reaching the Windward Islands.

Elsewhere, recon will be flying Invest 91L in the Gulf of Mexico today, which should help with its forecast. As it stands, the disturbance has about even odds of becoming a named storm prior to impacting the western Gulf. Interests especially from Louisiana to Texas may want to pay close attention to this one, as it could be a prolific rain/flood maker.

Ciel

5PM Update 21 July 2020
Invest 99L is now Tropical Depression Seven, it is forecast to remain below hurricane strength, however it's small size means it could rapidly strengthen or weaken over the next few days, so those in the Windwards should keep watch on it.

91L remains in the Gulf, and has a better shot on Thursday to develop, but still remains relatively low. Another wave east of TD#7 will be the next thing to watch, and also a very small area north of Puerto Rico.

Original Update
The system east of the Windward islands of the Caribbean (99L) is now up to an 80% chance for development, and is very likely to become a storm or depression later today. Conditions become much less favorable this weekend, but in the meantime those in the Eastern Caribbean should keep watch. The next name on the list is Gonzalo.

The system has a relatively small size, and that seems to be working in its favor. Dry air nearby would likely weaken it otherwise. Shear later may be what weakens it this weekend, and the small size works against it there.

The other area near Cuba (91L) still has a 40% chance for development and is not currently being tracked as an Invest.

Recon was tentatively scheduled to check the area out later today, but was since cancelled. Those in the northwest gulf should keep watch on this one, as we could have two active tropical systems later this week.

Conditions aren't great for the Cuba system right now, but it is likely that this improves around Thursday.

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Gonzalo - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Gonzalo


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Gonzalo (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Gonzalo (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Gonzalo

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Gonzalo
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Gonzalo -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View

Forecast Lounge and Model Talk on Tropical Storm Gonzalo

Hanna Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Hanna - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Hanna


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Hanna (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Hanna (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Hanna

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Hanna
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Hanna -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View

Forecast Lounge and Model Talk on Hanna in the Gulf of Mexico

Galveston Live Beach Cam
Flhurricane recordings of landfall area radar and webcams

Texas Gulf Coast Links Texas/South Plains Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Corpus Christi, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Brownsville, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Houston/Galveston, TX - Corpus Christi, TX - Browsnville/South Padre Island, TX

Douglas/Hawaii Approach info
Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Radar:


South Shore Big Island, HI Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Kohala, HI (Big Island) Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Molokai, HI (Maui/Oahu) Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Kauai, HI Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

River/Stream Gauges in Hawaii

Hawaii Power Outage Map

Hawaiian Media:

TV:

KITV 4 - Honolulu (ABC)

KHON 2 - Honolulu (Fox)

Hawaii News Now KGMB 9 (CBS)/KHNL 13 (NBC)

Newspaper:

Hawaii 24/7 (Big Island Newspaper)

Hawaii Tribune-Herald

Maui News

Honolulu Star Advertiser

Other:

Big Island News Now

Hawaii Tracker Big Island News

Invest 92L (East Atlantic) Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 92L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 92L


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 92L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 92L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 92L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 92L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 92L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View

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Tropical Storm Fay Forms off Carolina Coast

Posted: 08:25 AM 08 July 2020 | | Add Comment

The system east of the Windward islands of the Caribbean (99L) is now up to an 80% chance for development, and is very likely to become a storm or depression later today. Conditions become much less favorable this weekend, but in the meantime those in the Eastern Caribbean should keep watch. The next name on the list is Gonzalo.

The system has a relatively small size, and that seems to be working in its favor. Dry air nearby would likely weaken it otherwise. Shear later may be what weakens it this weekend, and the small size works against it there.

The other area near Cuba still has a 40% chance for development and is not currently being tracked as an Invest, but recon is tentatively scheduled to check the area out later today. Those in the northwest gulf should keep watch on this one, as we could have two active tropical systems later this week.

1105 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the status of the
reconnaissance mission originally scheduled for the system near the
Straits of Florida and to increase the formation chances for the
system in the tropical Atlantic.

Fay Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Fay - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Fay


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Fay (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Fay (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Fay

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Fay
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Fay -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

Power Outage Maps: South Carolina Power Outage Map North Carolina Power Outage Map Virginia Power Outage Map
Northeast US Radar Links Northeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Dover, DE Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mt. Holly, NJ Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Upton/NYC/Long Island, NY Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Boston/Cape Cod, MA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Portland, ME Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Carabou, ME Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Texas Gulf Coast Links Texas/South Plains Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Corpus Christi, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Brownsville, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Houston/Galveston, TX - Corpus Christi, TX - Browsnville/South Padre Island, TX

99L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 99L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 99L


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 99L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View

90L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 90L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 90L


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 90L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 90L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 90L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 90L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 90L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View

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Cristobal Back in Gulf, Warnings up for Parts of Gulf Coast

Posted: 05:20 PM 05 June 2020 | | Add Comment

10AM Update 6 June 2020

Cirstobal is now a 50mph Tropical Storm in the Central Gulf, it is likely to continue to slowly gain strength, rain from the outer bands is already reaching parts of the coast, and the eastern part is bringing rain to much of Florida today.



Original Update
Tropical Storm Warnings are now up for parts of the Northern Gulf coast from Morgan City, LA to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in Florida.

The center of Cristobal has moved into the Gulf of Mexico to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm in a few hours, which should provide a good estimate of Cristobal's strength.

Storm Surge Warnings have been issued for areas outside the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi, including Lake Borgne.

Cristobal Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Cristobal - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Cristobal


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Cristobal (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Cristobal (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Cristobal

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Cristobal
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Cristobal -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View

Invest 93L Forecast Lounge

North Gulf Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

New Orleans, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Lake Charles, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA - Houston/Galveston, TX

Mississippi/Alabama Gulf Coast Media/Links

WLOX TV 13 (ABC) Biloxi

WXXV TV 25 (Fox)Biloxi

WKRG TV 5 (CBS) Mobile

WPMI TV 15 (NBC) Mobile

WALA TV 10 (Fox) Mobile

WEAR TV 3 (ABC) Pensacola, FL

Newspapers

Mobile Register (Al.com) paper

Biloxi Sun Herald paper

Gulf Live

Radio (some)

News Talk 104.9 Biloxi, MS (Radio)

News talk 106.5 Mobile, AL (Radio)

Power Outage

Mississippi Power Outage Map

Alabama Power Outage Map

Dolly Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Dolly - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Dolly


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Dolly (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Dolly (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Dolly

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Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Dolly
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The First Day of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins with a New TD

Posted: 12:03 AM 01 June 2020 | | Add Comment

12:00 PM EDT 3 June 2020 Update
Cristobal made landfall this morning in the state of Campeche just to the west of Ciudad del Carmen and movement continues to be excruciatingly slow, resulting in life-threatening flooding on top of life-threatening flooding, with all-new flooding in locations that are now waterlogged.

This is a very dangerous tropical cyclone. Interests in Central America and portions of S/E Mexico should continue to take significant actions to protect life and property.

From NHC:
Quote:

Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.





4:30 PM 1 June 2020 Update
Invest 93L has continued to develop throughout the day, despite having spent much of the past two days fully over land, and has become a tropical cyclone, TD3, remarkably already the third tropical cyclone of the stunningly fast start to the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

It appears likely that TD3 will become Tropical Storm Cristobal within the next 24 hours, setting a new record. The current record earliest formation of a third named storm in the Atlantic occurred on June 5, 2016, when Tropical Storm Colin upgraded.
-Ciel


Original Entry
Today marks the first day of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season, which has already had TWO named Tropical storms, Tropical Storm Arthur, that formed east of Florida but stayed offshore, closest point to land was in the outer banks. And Tropical Storm Bertha, which formed quickly and made landfall in South Carolina causing some impacts along there, and in the outer banks, as well as a freak training rain system formed by a tail outer band in the Miami area causing major flash flooding.

Last year was most memorable for Hurricane Dorian, which sat over the Northern Bahamas for 24 hours devastating the area and then clipped over the North Carolina Outerbanks.

Once again we’ll be watching out in the Atlantic, and Hawaii if any storms threaten there.

The first regular outlook starts at 2AM on June 1st. And there's already something to track:

Invest 93L, which is the the remnants of Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda.

This system may move from over Guatemala into the Gulf of Mexico. In fact it has a 60% chance to develop over the next 5 days. Although it may stall or move into Mexico, but there is some chance that it may move further north,

So folks along the Gulf coast from coastal Texas to Louisiana should at least keep up with what's going on here, particularly for Sunday/Monday of NEXT week.

The names for 2020 are the following:
Arthur Hanna Omar
Bertha Isaias Paulette
Cristobal Josephine Rene
Dolly Kyle
Sally
Edouard Laura
Teddy
Fay Marco Vicky
Gonzalo Nana Wilfred


Sales Tax Holiday:

This year Florida has a Hurricane Supply Sales Tax Holiday running from Friday, May 29, 2020, and extends through Thursday, June 4, 2020

This Includes reusable ice packs $10 or less.

$20 or less flashlights, lanterns, candles.

$25 or less: Any gas or diesel fuel container, including LP gas and kerosene containers

$30 or less: Batteries, including rechargeable batteries, excluding automobile and boat
Coolers and ice chests (food-storage; nonelectrical)

$50 or less: tarps, Visqueen, plastic sheeting, plastic drop cloths, and other flexible waterproof sheeting
Ground anchor systems, Tie-down kits, Bungee cords, Ratchet straps, Radios (powered by battery, solar, or hand-crank)
Two-way, Weather band

and Portable Generators Selling for $750 or less.

Cristobal Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Cristobal - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Cristobal


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Cristobal (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Cristobal (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Cristobal

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Cristobal
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Cristobal -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View

Invest 93L Forecast Lounge

Mexican Weather

Mexican Weather Service

Coastal Mexican Radar:

Atlantic: Altamira Radar Sabancuy Radar

Pacific: Acapulco Radar Guasave Radar

North Gulf Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

New Orleans, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Lake Charles, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA - Houston/Galveston, TX


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Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 992mb
Moving:
Nne at 23 mph
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2020 Forecast Lounge
IsoFlame (24 replies)
Isaias conditions in your area
MikeC (84 replies)
Isaias Forecast Lounge
vineyardsaker (3 replies)
What about the likely storm surge
cieldumort (2 replies)
Gonzalo Forecast Lounge
CFHC 2020
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