Atlantic Slowly Reawakening as Heart of Season Nears
Posted: 04:27 PM 10 August 2018 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 04:49 PM 10-Aug EDT
As expected, a non-tropical low has formed in the north-central Atlantic and is showing some signs of being able to transition into a sub-trop or tropical cyclone. This system is now being tracked as an Invest, 98L, but is no threat to the Americas while it meanders over the subtropical Atlantic.
Elsewhere, the weak disturbance between the Caribbean and Africa has been decimated and is now given a near-zero chance of developing.
The climatological heart of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is now just about a week away, generally thought of as mid-August trough mid-October, and while 2018 is expected by most specialists to end up with far fewer named storms, hurricanes and majors than last year, "it only takes one." Now, while it is still quiet, is a great time to do hurricane preparedness, so when the peak does come, and if a significant storm approaches, there will be less to worry about.
And all is not quiet. As of today, August 10, NHC is now focusing on two features. One, an expected development of a non-tropical low out in the central Atlantic that could acquire sub-tropical or tropical status much like pre-Debby did. This feature should not be a threat to the Americas. The other, a disturbance located about midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, could slowly develop next week as it travels west-northwest towards the Caribbean.
Subtropical Depression Five Event Related Links
Hector Tracking Hawaii too Close for Comfort in Pac. Debby Spins Fish in Atl.
Posted: 10:05 PM 02 August 2018 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 02:37 PM 06-Aug EDT
Invest 97L has become Sub-Tropical Storm Debby out in the north-central Atlantic. Debby is is expected to be short-lived and unlikely to affect land as a named cyclone.
9AM update 4 August 2018
Hurricane Hector is likely to stay south of the Hawaiian islands, but is close enough to feel some effects from rough surf, it should be monitored over the next week.
Invest 97L is out in the central Atlantic but likely to not affect land, it has a 20% chance for development.
August has started and the Atlantic basin is quiet, which is fairly usual for the start of August, things typically don't get going until mid to late August, and that seems to be the case this year.
However, in the Pacific, Hurricane Hector has increased to 110mph winds tonight, and the official forecast is starting to close in near Hawaii. Flhurricane normally does not discuss systems outside of the Atlantic since we don't have as many tools available, but we do make exceptions for any Hawaii threats.
The Current 5 day forecast keeps Hector as a Major Category 3 hurricane southeast of the Big Island, and some models project it may get closer mid to late next week (See the forecast lounge for details on that) However, some of the models keep it south of Hawaii, so it's in the monitoring state right now, but with a few of the models taking it over or near Hawaii it's time to start watching it. Odds are it stays south of Hawaii, however.
This will likely change some as the days progress, but it is important to watch into next week. If it approaches Hawaii next week, it will likely weakening (slowly) as it approaches, however. the threat to the Big Island is irritated by the active lava flows in the Puna region, and the non-native extremely tall and brittle Albizia trees are very susceptible to being blown over in even moderate Tropical Storm force winds.
We'll be monitoring it and update if the threat increases or not, since the timeframe for landfall (if it were to occur) would be mid to late next week, there are no cones showing approach. By this weekend there may be a better idea of it, and much more of one early next week. Those in the Big Island, and Maui should keep tabs of the system.
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Hawaii Tracker Big Island News
Invest 97L Event Related Links
Hurricanes Chris, Beryl and More
Posted: 02:52 PM 10 July 2018 | 2 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 01:33 PM 13-Jul EDT
An active month of July continues, with recon now finding Chris a hurricane. Fortunately, nearly all reliable guidance takes Hurricane Chris north-northeast to northeast away from the U.S., but the cyclone could continue to produce some serious rip current risks along the eastern seaboard.
Another Low to the northeast of Chris is weak, and significant development is not expected, although it could have some influence on the path Chris takes.
Southeast of Chris, the low pressure remains of former Hurricane Beryl continue struggling, but a new mid-level center may be trying to form along the northern portion of this trough. Interests in the region should continue to monitor this disturbance closely, and stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center for updates. NHC odds of 20% within 48 hours/50% within 5 days, and these odds could be going up.
Finally, way, way, way out in the Tropical Atlantic, an active portion of the ITCZ is worth keeping an eye on, as despite Sea Surface Temps running well below average in the Tropical Atlantic so far this seasaon, African Easterly Waves have been busier and friskier than usual.
For Chris model talk and more check out the Hurricane Chris Lounge
For more Beryl model talk, go beyond the cone with us in the Beryl Lounge.
Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Tropical Storms Beryl & Chris
Posted: 07:50 PM 03 July 2018 | 8 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 10:22 PM 08-Jul EDT
TD3 has become Tropical Storm Chris. Chris is expected to become a hurricane, and possibly a formidable one, while over the Gulf Stream.
Beryl has been re-firing convection overnight in response to some westerly shear. Sometimes this can help a fledgling tropical cyclone get itself together (or together again, in the case of Beryl), and so deserves to be monitored. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should still prepare for tropical storm conditions possibly affecting some portion or portions of the islands later tonight and/or Monday.
4:30PM EDT Update 6 July 2018
Invest 96L has become TD 3 a few hundred miles southeast of the North Carolina coast. The cyclone may pull up nearly stationary, or just meander, and cook, over anomalously warm waters in this region for several days. A potential significant threat if it turns toward the U.S., and needs to be watched.
11AM EDT Update 6 July 2018
Beryl is gaining strength today and its small size has insulated it from a lot of the negative effects. The official forecast now keeps it a hurricane into the East Caribbean before weakening in the Caribbean.
Hurricane watches could be required for some islands in the Lesser Antilles by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds are likely to begin over some of the islands by Sunday evening.
Meanwhile 96L near the NC coast could form this weekend or early next week.
Those in the Lesser Antilles should now pay very close attention to Beryl, and those in North Carolina should be monitoring the wave 96L closely.
5AM EDT Update 6 July 2018
Tiny Tropical Cyclone Beryl becomes Hurricane Beryl, the first Hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season, while at a very south latitude in the Tropical Atlantic.
Elsewhere, recently Invest-tagged 96L off the southeast U.S. continues organizing, and may get listed as a Potential Tropical Cyclone, TD, or even a named storm as soon as later today, perhaps necessitating Watches and/or Warnings along parts of the east coast over the weekend and/or early next week.
For in-depth Beryl model talk and more, go beyond the cone with us in the Hurricane Beryl Lounge.
For 96L model talk and more check out the Invest 96L Lounge
Eastern NC/OBX/Hampton Roads Media:
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
2:30PM EDT Update 5 July 2018
Tropical Depression Two becomes Tropical Storm Beryl.
Noon Update 5 July 2018
Tropical Depression two forms in the East Atlantic, but expected to dissipate before reaching the Caribbean.
The Atlantic Tropics are starting to show some signs of life this July, although nothing is an imminent threat to land.
First an area southeast of Bermuda that has a low, 20% chance to develop, but would remain out to sea.
Another is the area in the East Atlantic, being tracked as 95L tonight, this also has a 20% chance to develop, but will run against some unfavorable conditions.later in the week, however ultimately it may develop beyond that, so its worth watching, some models turn it into a tropical storm next week..
July expands the area we watch for development, but typically activity doesn't pick up to a serious degree until mid to late August. However, July storms can happen so we'll be watching.
Activity in the Atlantic has been fairly sparse so far this year, with the Pacific being much more active, a sign that El Nino may be a factor this year.
Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Atlantic Hurricane Season 2018 Officially Begins
Posted: 07:02 AM 01 June 2018 | | Add Comment
Last year, Harvey, Irma, Maria, Nate, the 4 hurricanes that hit the United States last year will be remembered. The first three, Harvey, Irma, and Maria were the trio that broke the chain of no major us-landfalling hurricanes for 11 years prior. These affected the areas they hit greatly.
Rockport, Texas by the wind, and much of eastern Texas from the flooding rains. Harvey was retired and will remain a strong memory for many in the area.
Irma, wiping out Barbuda in the Caribbean, ST. Martin, Virgin Islands, and others, before moving into Cuba and Florida, the worst damage on the mainland being just east of Key West, FL.
Maria, first devistating the island of Dominica before tearing apart much of Puerto Rico.
This year won’t be like that, but there is no guarantee another major hurricane will not hit again, in different ways. The water temperatures are a bit cooler, and the shear is likely to be more impactful, but still the overall favorible pattern exists. Alberto was the early foray into the season, with one of the oddest sub-tropical systems that we’ve seen in a good while.
Beyond Alberto, the next area to watch is likely the West Caribbean and Gulf still (particularly in 10-12 days), then expanding into more of the Atlantic in July.
Once again we’ll be watching out in the Atlantic, and Hawaii if any storms threaten there.
This is also the first year of operational Goes-16 satellite data, which is still being integrated into various websites.
Remember, this site (and others like it) should just supplement, but not replace the official sources.
Be Hurricane prepared!
Sales Tax Holiday
This year Florida has a Hurricane Supply Sales Tax Holiday running June 1-7, 2018
This Includes reusable ice packs $10 or less.
$20 or less flashlights, lanters, cancles.
$25 or less: Any gas or diesel fuel container, including LP gas and kerosene containers
$30 or less: Batteries, including rechargeable batteries, excluding automobile and boat
Coolers and ice chests (food-storage; nonelectrical)
$50 or less: tarps, Visqueen, plastic sheeting, plastic drop cloths, and other flexible waterproof sheeting
Ground anchor systems, Tie-down kits, Bungee cords, Ratchet straps, Radios (powered by battery, solar, or hand-crank)
Two-way, Weather band
and Portable Generators Selling for $750 or less.
Invest 91L Event Related Links