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97L in Central Atlantic likely to become a tropical Depression today. 98L by Texas may also form right before landfall, lots of rain for TX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 11 (Dorian) , Major: 341 (Michael) Florida - Any: 341 (Michael) Major: 341 (Michael)
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Back Half of the Season Kicking off With Multiple Systems

Posted: 08:00 PM 16 September 2019 | | Add Comment



Conditions for development across the Atlantic are entering a new phase, with several systems worth watching, not the least of which is powerful Hurricane Humberto, now expected to become a Major within the next 36 hours and potentially directly impact Bermuda.

Much closer to the CONUS, an area of disturbed weather in the western Gulf of Mexico has strong model support to produce a deluge in eastern Texas whether or not it ever gets a name. This system is potentially a particularly dangerous situation unfolding, and just because it does not already have a name (and may never get one) is no reason not to prepare for something akin to a very slow moving Tropical Storm, with training bands of showers and thunderstorms setting up over some of the same areas - exact locations which as of yet are still unknown, but could even include parts of the very flood-prone Houston metro.

In the eastern Caribbean we are still keeping an eye out on Invest 96L, which is being held in check from high shear. However, behind 96L we are laser focused on 97L, with now 90% NHC odds of development, and a track that at this point is just too close to call for the Antilles.

As always, feel free to follow along with us in the Forecast Lounge, where we dive into a good deal of model talk.
Current active Lounges include: Hurricane Humberto Lounge , Invest 96L Lounge , Invest 97L Lounge, Invest 98L Lounge

Harrison County Flood Warning System

Houston/Galveston Related Links:

Texas Emergency Management

Galveston area Storm Surge Map (pdf)

Webcams:

Surfside Beach Jetty Cam

Octogon View (Surfside Beach, TX)

Matagoria Beach Webcam

North TextVisual WebCam summary Page from HurricaneCity,com

Corpus Christi city Webcams

Media:

Houston Area:

Click2Houston/Local 2

KHOU

Galveston County The Daily News

chron.com

ABC13 KTRK

Houston Press

Corpus Christi:

KRIS NBC 6

KIII TV 3 ABC

MZTV 10 CBS

Corpus Christi Caller Times Paper

Power:

Center Point Energy Power Outages (Houston Area)

AEP Texas Outage map

Texas Gulf Coast Links Texas/South Plains Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Corpus Christi, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Brownsville, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Houston/Galveston, TX - Corpus Christi, TX - Browsnville/South Padre Island, TX

Bermuda Newspapers/Media:

BerNews

Royal Gazette (Bermuda)

Bermuda Sun

Hott 107.5 Bermuda Radio

Storm Carib Bermuda Reports

Bermuda Weather Service

Humberto Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Humberto - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Humberto


stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float9latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Humberto (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Humberto (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Humberto

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Humberto
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Humberto -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Invest 97L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 97L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 97L


stormplotthumb_10.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float10latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 97L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 97L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 97L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 97L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 97L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Invest 98L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 98L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 98L


stormplotthumb_11.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float11latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 98L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 98L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 98L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 98L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 98L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

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Tropics After Dorian

Posted: 06:52 AM 10 September 2019 | 4 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 11:01 PM 11-Sep EDT

11PM EDT 13 September 2019 Update
The system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Humberto, and with it a clearer picture of where the center is and where it may go, and it's good news for Florida and the US, but does bring Bermuda into the question later on. Tropical Storm watches have been dropped for Florida, only warnings remain for the Bahamas, but it appears the storm will stay east of the islands, so only the weaker fringe effects will be felt there, but enough to keep tropical storm warnings up there.

This does mean Bermuda is potentially in the path down the road, so folks there should pay attention to the progress of the storm as it likely will be a hurricane by the time it nears there later in the week.

11PM EDT 12 September 2019 Update
Tropical Storm watches are now up from Jupiter north the the Volusia/Brevard county line (Between Cape Canaveral and New Smyrna Beach) for a storm that has not yet developed, referred to as Potential Tropical Cyclone 9. If it gets named (which is forecast by Saturday), it would be called Humberto. The forecast has landfall around Saturday night along the east central Florida coastline. Expect heavy rain and some winds, along with short lived tornadoes if the system track remains as forecast. There is a possibility that the storm could slow down and rain for a while in parts of Florida or Georgia.

Based on the official forecast, Shear should keep any development in check for 36 hours, but there likely will be enough time for it to develop into a moderate level tropical storm before landfall.

Since this storm has not fully developed things may change, so keep watch on it *very* closely tomorrow.

8:00AM 12 September 2019 Update
The area near the southern Bahamas, tracked as Invest 95L, is slowly becoming more organized and now has an 80% chance to develop or the next 5 days (70% in the next 48 hours). It'll bring rainfall and winds to the Bahamas, including the areas affected by Dorian. Therefore it is likely that Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories may be issued later in the day so that tropical storm watches/warnings may be issued for parts of the Bahamas or Florida. Direct impacts to Florida are not guaranteed, as the models are varied on what happens with this area (And don't do well with forming storms). So it will have to be monitored. Areas getting some wind and rain is very likely, although there is very little to suggest that it would strengthen rapidly -- watch it closely over the next day or so to see.

Another area off Africa has a 40% chance to develop over the next 5 days, it gets more likely a little beyond that. But plenty of time to watch that one.

9:30AM 11 September 2019 Update
There is a wide area over the Southeast Bahamas now that has a 60% chance to develop over the next 5 days, and only 20% before then. Those in the Gulf should watch it closely. Those in the Bahamas and south Florida can expect some squally weather later this week, but the shear is strong enough to likely keep anything from intensifying quickly, at least before Florida. Back side rain bands will likely expand into Central Florida also as it moves into the Gulf in the weekend.

Once in the Gulf there is a better chance for it to form into a tropical storm or depression, but right now anything stronger seems unlikely--caveat it is September so it could change-- So the northern Gulf coast from about the Florida Panhandle west toward Louisiana should be monitoring this for late this weekend or early next week.

Two other areas have a low chance to develop, 10% near the lesser Antilles, and 20% further east. The later likely will have to be watched beyond the 5 day timeframe more closely.

Original Update

Hurricane Dorian has moved away and become extra-tropical after leaving its wake in the northwest Bahamas which were devastated. Beyond that flooding and damage to the Outer Banks, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. And causing quite a bit of a stir in other areas of the southeast US and Florida.

Beyond that we have several areas to watch, Tropical Storm Gabrielle, which likely will become extra-tropical and eventually impact the north parts of Ireland or Scotland, and a few areas in the open Atlantic. Only one of which is an invest currently.

The closest area to the US is north of Haiti this morning and has a low chance of 20% to develop, it's currently in an area of high shear which is keeping development low, but that could change as it moves over Florida into the Gulf of the Mexico later this week. Florida and the Gulf coasts should keep an eye on it to see if anything changes.

94L east of the Caribbean is in a marginal spot for development, with about 30% chance over the next 5 days/48 hours. This probably won't develop, but could.

Off Africa is the most interesting of the waves on the various models, but likely won't develop until much further west, but currently has a 20% chance to develop over the next 5 days. Development seems more likely after 5 days.


Houston/Galveston Related Links:

Texas Emergency Management

Galveston area Storm Surge Map (pdf)

Webcams:

Surfside Beach Jetty Cam

Octogon View (Surfside Beach, TX)

Matagoria Beach Webcam

North TextVisual WebCam summary Page from HurricaneCity,com

Corpus Christi city Webcams

Media:

Houston Area:

Click2Houston/Local 2

KHOU

Galveston County The Daily News

chron.com

ABC13 KTRK

Houston Press

Corpus Christi:

KRIS NBC 6

KIII TV 3 ABC

MZTV 10 CBS

Corpus Christi Caller Times Paper

Power:

Center Point Energy Power Outages (Houston Area)

AEP Texas Outage map

Texas Gulf Coast Links Texas/South Plains Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Corpus Christi, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Brownsville, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Houston/Galveston, TX - Corpus Christi, TX - Browsnville/South Padre Island, TX

Bermuda Newspapers/Media:

BerNews

Royal Gazette (Bermuda)

Bermuda Sun

Hott 107.5 Bermuda Radio

Storm Carib Bermuda Reports

Bermuda Weather Service

Humberto Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Humberto - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Humberto


stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float9latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Humberto (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Humberto (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Humberto

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Humberto
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Humberto -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Invest 97L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 97L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 97L


stormplotthumb_10.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float10latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 97L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 97L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 97L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 97L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 97L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

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Dorian Finally on the Move

Posted: 08:42 AM 03 September 2019 | 2 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 11:13 AM 06-Sep EDT

2:00PM Update September 4 2019
Dorian has made landfall on Hatteras, NC, flooding the outer banks from Ocracoke to Rodanthe and then some. The Canadian Hurricane Center has issued a Hurricane Warning for eastern Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Avonport.

11:00PM Update September 4 2019
Dorian has regained Category 3 hurricane strength.

9:30PM Update September 3 2019
Dorian continues NNW to NW tonight, tracking offshore and usually parallel to the east coast of Florida. This should continue until a couple of shortwaves recurve Dorian to the northeast by Thursday, putting the southeast, and in particular North Carolina, at risk for a direct hit.

The heart of the season continues with no less than three simultaneous Tropical Cyclones in the Atlantic: Fernand (W Gulf), TD8 (eastern Atlantic), and last but not least Dorian. By this time Thursday there could also be a fourth, as we are keeping an eye out on a new Tropical Wave expected to develop in the far eastern Atlantic and head west.

As a reminder, you can also follow along with more in-depth model discussions and more in the Forecast Lounge. If you can't find a Lounge you are looking for on the main page, simply look for the "Forums" tab (often in a bar on the left or right side of the main page), where you can usually find the very thread you are looking for. If posting to a Lounge, we ask that one refrain from going off-topic, or using unnecessary words. The idea is for us all to stay on point for a given Lounge, and not to delve into hype or wishcasting.
-Ciel

Current Forecast Lounges
Invest 94L Lounge , Tropical Storm Fernand Lounge (E MX/S TX) , Invest 92L Lounge (Bermuda Threat), Hurricane Dorian Lounge



Original Update
At the 8am advisory slow motion of Dorian to the Northwest has begun at 1mph, shown on the Florida radar, The same slow movement in Bahamas followed by a track close to but offshore of Florida has been forecast since Saturday morning.

Dorian is still impacting Grand Bahama and stationary but expected to begin to move toward the North Northwest later today, meanwhile, Tropical Storm Warnings are up along the northeast coast of Mexico The from La Pesca northward to Barra El Mezquital for newly designated Potential Tropical Cyclone 7 in the Gulf which may landfall as a Tropical Storm in Mexico tomorrow night.

Dorian's lack of forward motion has caused the water beneath it to cool enough to weaken it to a category 3, which is still a major hurricane, and still has the momentum in the waves and surge from being a much stronger storm which increases the storm surge impact along the coast. Dorian's weaker side is on the west, so that is in our favor, but it likely will get close enough to still bring plenty of Tropical Storm force winds and some hurricane force winds to parts of Florida. The size of the windfield has generally expanded.

Dorian's motion based on the forecast track should take it closest to Florida overnight tonight into tomorrow and be up near South Carolina by Thursday, and by North Carolina by early Friday morning. The National Hurricane center Although the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall along the Florida east coast, users are reminded not to forecast on the exact forecast track. A relatively small deviation to the left of this track could bring the core of the hurricane near or over the coastline.

Canadian Hurricane Centre

> Bahamas Media

Bahamas Radar

Television & Radio:

ZNS Bahamas, Radio & TV

More 94 FM Bahamas

Newspapers:

Bahamas Tribune

Nassau Guardian

Bahamas B2B

The Abaconian - Abaco Island News

Freeport News

http://www.FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management Page

Dorian Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Dorian - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Dorian


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float5latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Dorian (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Dorian (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Dorian

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Dorian
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Dorian -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Bahamas Radar

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

Power Outage Maps: South Carolina Power Outage Map North Carolina Power Outage Map Virginia Power Outage Map

Caribbean Radar Recording

Invest 98L Lounge W Gulf Trof Lounge

Coastal South Carolina Media:

Myrtle Beach Sun News

Charleston Post and Courier

94.3 WSC Charleston News Radio


Power Outage Map: South Carolina Power Outage Map

Eastern NC/OBX/Hampton Roads Media:

North Carolina Power Outage Map

Star News Online (Wilmington)

Outer Banks Sentinel

Hampton Roads Pilot

WWAY TV 3 Wilmington, NC (ABC)

WECT TV 6 Wilmington, NC (NBC)

Fox Wilmington (FOX)

WILM TV 10 Wilmington, NC (CBS)

WITN 7 - Eastern North Carolina TV (NBC)

WCTI 12 - Eastern North Carolina (ABC)

WNCT TV 9 - Eastern North Carolina (CBS)

Wavy 10 (NBC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA TV

WTKR 3 (CBS) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA

WVEC 13 (ABC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA

Jacksonville, FL Area Media:

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Category 5 Hurricane Dorian Grand Bahama Island

Posted: 09:46 AM 01 September 2019 | 21 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 07:50 PM 02-Sep EDT

11:00 AM EDT Update 2 September 2019

Hurricane Dorian is still sitting over Grand Bahamas island barely moving, and an eyewall replacement and land interaction has reduced it to 155mph winds (High end Cat 4). It's expected to remain a Major hurricane through Wednesday and the tropical storm force wind field likely will expand as it does.

The track has shifted slightly west closer to Florida, but landfall is not expected in Florida, however any slight deviation to the left when motion begins could bring stronger winds onshore. As it stands now based on the official tack, hurricane force winds will be felt along parts of the coast of Florida, even if landfall does not happen. Tropical Storm force winds could reach well inland. Note, most impacts would not be felt in central Florida until TOMORROW night. Although bands will gradually move onshore through today and tomorrow, from the south and spreading north.

The Hurricane Warning along the east coast of Florida has been extended northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia.

7:00 AM Update 2 September 2019

Hurricane Dorian has begun the stall forecast by the hurricane center today, and the eye is currently over the eastern part of Grand Bahamas island, where it, unfortunately, will probably remain for a good part of today. It is still category 5 hurricane, but weakening slightly due to an eyewall replacement cycle going on right now, as well as some land interaction with the island.

The forecast track takes it east of Florida, but close enough to bring hurricane conditions some some ares and is indicated by the watches and warnings, the wind field may expand so Tropical Storm force winds could expand west though much of the center of the state. Any significant motion isn't expected until late tonight, so today will be a waiting game. Storm Surge and erosion will likely be a large problem for the east coast of Florida in the warning area, and up into the Carolinas later. Rainfall will likely be great in many places as well, particularly closer to the coast.

Some of the outer rain bands will start moving over parts of Florida today.

Based on the forecast southern areas in the watch/warning area will begin to see the most around tomorrow afternoon, gradually spreading northward into Wednesday morning with forward speed increasing to the north. and by Thursday Georgia and parts of South Carolina, by Friday morning speed should have picked up greatly as it moves near/over North Carolina.

Nearly every model keeps Dorian offshore, but very close to Florida, however even a slight shift west could bring it closer, or even over Florida. So today will be a waiting game for Florida, but a devastating day in the northwest Bahamas. Abaco island was hit very hard yesterday, and the storm is still close enough to prevent any mover relief efforts today, as it's still probably experiencing hurricane/tropical storm force winds in parts of Abaco.

5:00 PM Update 1 September 2019

Dorian is moving generally west at 5MPH, heading toward Grand Bahama island.

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.

4-7 feet Surge in some areas in the storm surge warning area..

12:50 PM Update 1 September 2019
Maximum sustained Winds increased to 185MPH, 911mb pressure with a special advisory. Still moving W at 8mph.

Hazards include
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

11:15 AM Update 1 September 2019
Hurricane Dorian up to 180mph winds.

Track shifts slightly west, enough to require Hurricane Watches up for the east coast from Deerfield to Volusia/Brevard county line. A Storm Surge Watch has also been issued from north of Deerfield
Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Lake Okeechobee.

Surge projections currently have 1-2 feet by West Palm up to 4-7 ft in Brevard county.

Original Update
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Dorian has continued to intensify, and now has maximum sustained winds near 175 mph (280 km/h), with a minimum central pressure of 922 mb (27.23 inches).

The eyewall of catastrophic Hurricane Dorian is currently reaching Abaco Island in the Bahamas. This is a life-threatening situation. Residents there should take immediate shelter. Do not venture into the eye if it passes over your location.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 200 mph
- Storm Surge 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas. and will continue for several hours.



Watches and Warnings for Florida will likely be extended at 11AM. The system is expected to turn north after a large slowdown before Florida, but it will likely still be close enough for some impacts along the Florida east coast.



> Bahamas Media

Bahamas Radar

Television & Radio:

ZNS Bahamas, Radio & TV

More 94 FM Bahamas

Newspapers:

Bahamas Tribune

Nassau Guardian

Bahamas B2B

The Abaconian - Abaco Island News

Freeport News

http://www.FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management Page

Dorian Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Dorian - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Dorian


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float5latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Dorian (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Dorian (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Dorian

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Dorian
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Dorian -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Bahamas Radar

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

News Media (East Central Florida):

Television:

Newspapers:

News Radio:

Check local media and officials when a storm is approaching your area.

News Media (South Florida):

Television:

Newspapers:

News Radio:

Check local media and officials when a storm is approaching your area.

Caribbean Radar Recording

Invest 98L Lounge W Gulf Trof Lounge

Coastal South Carolina Media:

Myrtle Beach Sun News

Charleston Post and Courier

94.3 WSC Charleston News Radio


Power Outage Map: South Carolina Power Outage Map

Jacksonville, FL Area Media:

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Dorian In the Atlantic (Less) Likely Florida Bound

Posted: 09:26 PM 28 August 2019 | 13 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 09:33 PM 31-Aug EDT

9:45 PM Update 31 August 2019
Recon is finding winds and pressures that could support Category 5 strength, as it is moving over very high heat content water tonight. This radar image, from Bahamas, shows the eye approaching Abaco island.

Florida will want to watch as well as the Southeast as it is expected to slow down greatly when it nears the Northwestern Bahamas.



6:00 AM Update 31 August 2019
Dorian remains a category 4 hurricane this morning, the intensity may fluctuate a bit over the day as the eye may fluctuate and go through replacement cycles, but in general is expected to remain a major hurricane today.

The biggest change is the chances for Florida impact are dropping as the official forecast has shifted quite a bit to the right, although most of Florida remains under the cone. If this trend continues it would bring much less of an impact on Florida, but it would increase the rest further up the coast into the Carolinas. Most of the common forecast models take it east of Florida and a few take it out to sea today. The Bahamas still are at risk from direct impacts. Florida is as well, but the odds are dropping. Indirect impacts will still be felt regardless, as a shift of only 50 miles or so west would make the impact much worse.

The speed and direction that Dorian follows today could push the models back to the west if the are further south or faster than forecast. Today will be critical for watching that to determine better some of the impacts.

Due to the trend in model track guidance, the National Hurricane Center has not issued a Hurricane Watch yet for any of FL but a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watch is possible later today along portions of the Florida east coast.


Florida is not in the clear yet, the NOAA Gulfstream 4 jet that was supposed to take high altitude data sets yesterday had to return to Savannah for repairs, and never made it. The speed and direction of Dorian today and tomorrow will indicate how much of the morning models are handling it.

Listen to local media and officials for information for your particular area.

7:00 PM Update 30 August 2019
Still a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast. The cone has shifted to the right, but there are indications it could shift more (either direction) Those in the cone should continue to prepare.




9:30 PM Update 29 August 2019

Recon reports tonight are showing some strengthening in Dorian as it is shaking out the dry slot from it's southwest side. Likely enough to make it to category 2 later tonight. However it still has several days before approaching Florida.


The official forecast today has slowed down, dragging the landfall point later in the period to 96 hours, and increasing the risk that the area which is gets near will have prolonged tropical storm and/or hurricane conditions. In some cases maybe more than 24 hours of it. Those in the cone may want to prepare for prolonged exposure to that type of weather.

In the forecast lounge we discuss models, but I do want to bring them up because of the diverging ideas. If anyone says one particular run of a model is the start of a trend, it is not, if multiple models show the same thing and do so for more than one of the major runs (0z, 12z) then it could be considered a trend. The mixed messages from the models today make me lean toward the NHC's official forecast more. Which states we'll have a major hurricane approaching Florida Monday, possibly a Category 4 Hurricane. Moving back the time frame is frustrating, since that also moves back the level of uncertainty. The models run from Recurve to South of the Florida Keys, some are fast, some are slow. And this is the date we hoped to know more. (Although think tomorrow night may be better for that)

The next major milestone in the forecast is the bend back to west. Does it happen later or sooner? The bend back to the west should be very noticeable just north of 25N, if it happens before then it gives more credence to the southerly models. If it's after the chance for it to find a hole in the ridge is greater. Again, it may be natural to gravitate to a model that is more favorable for you, but the official forecast is what you should be planning for. They have much better tools available to use than you can find publicly on the web. The cone was wrong for the approach tot he Greater Antilles, and it went to the east of that, but since then the forecast has been fairly good.

Keep monitoring, keep preparations going, and see below for a list of some local media and official sites, like floridadisaster.org. Anyone in the cone should be preparing with at least a plan. I do not know where this system will ultimate wind up, but I do know it will cause great impacts to wherever it does.

Also Tropical Storm Erin is no longer.

Original Update
Now Hurricane Dorian has strengthened today after missing the islands (correction it did go over St. Croix) and slipping in between Peurto Rico and St. Thomas. It now has a 20 mile wide eye, which was unexpected. It’s continuing to intensify and conditions just get better for it to intensify the further west it gets (At least for now). This results in Florida being under the gun for a major hurricane later this Labor Day Weekend.



In general Dorian should move generally to the northwest moving away from the islands and eventually turn back to the west or west northwest when the ridge is expected to build up. There is some weaker shear in the short term before it turns more west, but it may not be affected all that much. The Bahamas will be the first to deal with Dorian next, although the track does avoid most of the islands, and only the most northwestern islands will likely see any direct impact other than very rough surf. Those in cruise destinations in the Bahamas will likely get rerouted. Florida Cruise ports like Port Everglades and Port Canaveral may also get impacted on turnover days (Sunday/Monday) which could result in passengers disembarking at a different port than the one they started on.

Landfall time frame for Florida is likely Late Sunday night into Midday Monday, depending on specifically where it winds up. This is about 4 days away, you have through at least most of the Day on Saturday for preparations, but should be wrapped up before Sunday. If it slows down some you may have early Sunday morning as well, but by then it’s very possible windy conditions will start to impact the area where it ultimately winds up making things more difficult.

A State of Emergency was issued by Ron DeSantis for Florida today to activate many of the state and local government agencies and to open up communications. Starting around lunchtime today many places started to be slammed by folks getting early supplies. There may be resupplies by Friday in a lot of places, so if you run into outages now, check back on Friday. Official Watches for Florida may go up as early as tomorrow night (Thursday), but more likely on Friday.
It’s a bit early for shutters, but it may be a good idea to check your evacuation zone if you are anywhere near the coast. Evacuation orders are primarily for the purpose of avoiding storm surge, the rising water from the ocean or wind pushed walls of water that could rise quickly and flood buildings. Especially near the ocean or inland waterways like the Intracoastal. If you are asked to evacuate do so. If you are not, it is your call, but consider all the traffic exiting (which may take excessively long, even on back roads – Make sure you have alternate routes and use traffic aware routing monitoring apps like Google or Waze)

Find local TV, Radio stations (News stations like 96.5 here in Orlando are usually better equipped for reporting, but most radio stations will switch to a simulcast of a local TV station when things get dangerous). Battery powered radios are preferable if power goes out, you can use phone apps, assuming the cell network stays out (Cat 4+ is when those start to fail like in Hurricane Michael).

Freeze as much water as you can, do any laundry BEFORE the storm arrives, make sure you're stocked up on water, gator-aide , Stay hydrated, and get sleep while you can. It will be difficult to impossible to sleep while the storm is passing. During Irma I could not sleep, I had all the exterior lights (including floodlights) on at the house, and peeked out whenever I heard something. Fill up any large water coolers. Use bathtub, pool water, or other large basin for things like flushing the toilet if you lose water pressure. Be careful with any generators do NOT place them inside or in garages, keep them outdoors. Be careful with gas grills and propane.

Be wary of anyone claiming they know exactly what will happen. Beware of hype, and click bait. Yes some of the models will show crazy things, and some of them may actually be possible, but do not dwell on them.
Please pay attention to local media and officials for the latest information. Although we will update from time to time, we can’t cover everything, and many of us are located in Florida ourselves, so we may be preoccupied.
This will likely be an unforgettable Labor day weekend in Florida. All of us at flhurricane.com wish you and your family the best, and hope for your safety. Still holding out hope for a last minute swing out to sea, but it seems extremely unlikely at this point.


Follow along with us in the 2019 Forecast Lounge , as well as here on the Homepage.

Links to individual Forecast Lounges:
Tropical Storm Erin Lounge, Hurricane Dorian Lounge, W Gulf Low _90L_ Lounge


Have any questions or suggestions for preparing for Dorian? Please join the conversation: Dorian Prep ASK/TELL

http://www.FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management Page

Dorian Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Dorian - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Dorian


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float5latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Dorian (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Dorian (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Dorian

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Dorian
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Dorian -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Bahamas Radar

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

News Media (East Central Florida):

Television:

Newspapers:

News Radio:

Check local media and officials when a storm is approaching your area.

News Media (South Florida):

Television:

Newspapers:

News Radio:

Check local media and officials when a storm is approaching your area.

Caribbean Radar Recording

Invest 98L Lounge W Gulf Trof Lounge

Facebook Update Posted
07:38 am 03-Sep-2019 EDT

Potential Tropical Depression 7 in the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to make landfall in Northeast Mexico as a Tropical Storm Tomorrow.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Wednesday evening, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts
of 15 inches will be likely over portions of northeastern Mexico,
especially in mountainous terrain.

Facebook Update Posted
07:36 am 03-Sep-2019 EDT

Hurricane Dorian is still stationary this morning,and the eye is starting to fill in because of cool water it's been pulling in from elsewhere, it is expected to finally begin to move north northwest away from Grand Bahama later today.

Facebook Update Posted
05:47 pm 02-Sep-2019 EDT

Levi Cowan Video update for Labor Day https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=7&v=_K5L-ezGq4Y

Facebook Update Posted
12:30 pm 02-Sep-2019 EDT

Mark Sudduth from Hurricanetrack.com is in Central Florida today setting up remote unmanned cameras for Dorian. You can follow along in his live stream here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UX_-NKrcQQ8

Facebook Update Posted
12:02 pm 02-Sep-2019 EDT

Local statement for E. Central Florida from Melbourne NWS office:

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Extremely powerful Hurricane Dorian continues meandering over the
northwestern Bahamas as its eye wall continues to pound Grand Bahama
and Great Abaco islands this morning. The situation remains very
serious for east central Florida, and especially the coastal counties
of Martin, Saint Lucie, Indian River, Brevard and Volusia.

Dorian is an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane with winds near
155 mph. Dorian will slowly emerge north of Grand Bahama Island later
today, and begin to move very slowly toward the northwest and closer
to east central Florida through tonight. As Dorian slowly begins to
make its closest approach to east central Florida, it is expected to
turn north-northwest and parallel the coast from Tuesday into
Wednesday.

Although it remains uncertain just how close the eye of Dorian will
get to the Florida east coast, the threat of damaging winds and life-
threatening storm surge remains high. There will be considerable
impacts and damage to coastal areas, with at least some effects felt
inland as well!

Strong tropical storm force winds between 40 and 55 mph, with gusts to
hurricane force, will spread north into Martin and Saint Lucie
Counties starting by this evening, then spread farther north into
Indian River County after midnight, and then across Brevard and
coastal Volusia Counties Tuesday through Tuesday night. The threat for
damaging winds is high for the coastal counties and any remaining
preparations for Dorian should be rushed to completion before strong
winds move into the area!

Inland communities will also have an increased threat for tropical
storm force winds, especially in eastern Okeechobee, Osceola, Orange
and Seminole Counties, as well as inland Volusia County. These strong
winds will reach Okeechobee and Osceola Counties beginning early
Tuesday morning. Farther north over the interior, winds to near
tropical storm force will begin Tuesday afternoon. Thus, a Tropical
Storm Warning has been issued for Orange, Seminole, Lake, and Inland
Volusia Counties. This will be a long duration event, with the worst
conditions lasting 18 to 24 hours!

The threat for life-threatening storm surge also remains high, and
severe erosion of the beaches and dune lines is a near certainty! The
combination of surge and high astronomical tides will cause severe
runup of waves and water, resulting in inundation of many coastal
locations. Surge may reach 4 to 7 feet above ground near the coast.

Large battering waves and higher than normal tides on top of the surge
will add to the destructive force of the water during several high
tide cycles. Needless to say, entering the water can be deadly as
there will also be numerous strong rip currents, in addition to the
very large breaking waves that will build in excess of 10 feet.

Heavy rainfall is forecast over east central Florida from Dorian, with
total amounts of 4 to 8 inches over the coastal counties and 3 to
6 inches inland, with maximum isolated rainfall amounts up to
10 inches along the coast. While isolated flash flooding will be
possible inland, it will be even more likely near the coast in urban
and poorly drained, low lying areas. Flooding and high water levels on
area rivers such as the Saint Johns River will be aggravated.

While threat remains low, isolated tornadoes will be possible in
squalls as they move onshore along the coast this afternoon through
Tuesday.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across the coastal counties of Volusia, Brevard, Indian River,
Saint Lucie and Martin. Potential impacts in this area include:

- Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
uninhabitable for weeks.
- Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
access routes impassable.
- Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across the interior counties of Okeechobee,
Osceola, Orange, Seminole and inland Volusia.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive
impacts from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet. Potential impacts in this
area include:

- Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
barriers may become stressed.
- Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
- Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across all of east central Florida, with the threat remaining
highest along coastal areas. Potential impacts include:

- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals,
arroyos, and ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts in the
coastal counties of Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, Saint Lucie and
Martin. Potential impacts include:

- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
pulled from moorings.

Facebook Update Posted
10:54 am 02-Sep-2019 EDT

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward along the east coast of Florida to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward along the Georgia coast to the Savannah River.

The Hurricane Warning along the east coast of Florida has been extended northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia.

Dorian "weakens" slightly to a top end Category 4 hurricane.

Facebook Update Posted
09:19 am 02-Sep-2019 EDT

Beyond Dorian we remain at the peak of Hurricane Season. There are 4! other areas being watched right now, none any current threats to the US.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dorian, located over Grand Bahama Island.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
system located about 300 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands
continues to show signs of organization. A tropical depression is
expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves
generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible over the Cabo Verde Islands
today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf of
Mexico is producing a wide area of showers and thunderstorms. This
system has become better organized since yesterday, and a tropical
depression could form during the next few days while the low moves
slowly westward across the south-central and southwestern Gulf of
Mexico toward the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Bermuda. Although the associated showers and
thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization, the system
does not have a well-defined surface center. Gradual development of
this system is possible during the next few days while the
disturbance moves slowly northward or north-northwestward. Interests
in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days.
Some gradual development of this disturbance will be possible late
this week or over the weekend while it moves westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Facebook Update Posted
09:03 am 02-Sep-2019 EDT

Even with the forecast offshore, Dorian is a large hurricane, This 6z Euro image for Tuesday shows how far wind gusts reach inland in Central Florida. (Sustained will be less) But along the coast it's still possible for cat 2/3 wind gusts even with the current forecast. (image is for 48 hours). Shifts west would increase the wind inland, shifts right would lessen it.

Some outer rain bands are showing up in south Florida, and the storms "tail" is training rain over the Florida Keys this morning.

Facebook Update Posted
10:58 pm 01-Sep-2019 EDT

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM FLAGLER/VOLUSIA
COUNTY LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER.

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM
FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER

Facebook Update Posted
08:54 pm 01-Sep-2019 EDT

Levi Cowan Sunday Night Dorian Video Update https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4BAXqEcGYk

Facebook Update Posted
05:28 pm 01-Sep-2019 EDT

All eyes are understandably on #HurricaneDorian right now, but attention needs to start being given these two other features - 1. Gulf of Mexico Low likely to impact weather in E Mex/Texas/Louisiana - and is already gusting to Tropical Storm Force. and 2. A developing Low SSE of Bermuda.
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Number=100351&gonew=1#UNREAD

30.6N 74.0W
Wind: 100MPH
Pres: 961mb
Moving:
Ene at 8 mph
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