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Depression-Like System now bringing banding and training Heavy rains and Tstorms to parts of Tx. May drench the region for several days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 254 (Nate) , Major: 272 (Maria) Florida - Any: 282 (Irma) Major: 282 (Irma)
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Atlantic Hurricane Season 2018 Officially Begins

Posted: 07:02 AM 01 June 2018 | | Add Comment

Today marks the first day of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane season, which runs intil November 30th.
Last year, Harvey, Irma, Maria, Nate, the 4 hurricanes that hit the United States last year will be remembered. The first three, Harvey, Irma, and Maria were the trio that broke the chain of no major us-landfalling hurricanes for 11 years prior. These affected the areas they hit greatly.

Rockport, Texas by the wind, and much of eastern Texas from the flooding rains. Harvey was retired and will remain a strong memory for many in the area.

Irma, wiping out Barbuda in the Caribbean, ST. Martin, Virgin Islands, and others, before moving into Cuba and Florida, the worst damage on the mainland being just east of Key West, FL.

Maria, first devistating the island of Dominica before tearing apart much of Puerto Rico.

This year won’t be like that, but there is no guarantee another major hurricane will not hit again, in different ways. The water temperatures are a bit cooler, and the shear is likely to be more impactful, but still the overall favorible pattern exists. Alberto was the early foray into the season, with one of the oddest sub-tropical systems that we’ve seen in a good while.

Beyond Alberto, the next area to watch is likely the West Caribbean and Gulf still (particularly in 10-12 days), then expanding into more of the Atlantic in July.

Once again we’ll be watching out in the Atlantic, and Hawaii if any storms threaten there.

This is also the first year of operational Goes-16 satellite data, which is still being integrated into various websites.

Remember, this site (and others like it) should just supplement, but not replace the official sources.

Be Hurricane prepared!

Sales Tax Holiday

This year Florida has a Hurricane Supply Sales Tax Holiday running June 1-7, 2018

This Includes reusable ice packs $10 or less.

$20 or less flashlights, lanters, cancles.

$25 or less: Any gas or diesel fuel container, including LP gas and kerosene containers

$30 or less: Batteries, including rechargeable batteries, excluding automobile and boat
Coolers and ice chests (food-storage; nonelectrical)

$50 or less: tarps, Visqueen, plastic sheeting, plastic drop cloths, and other flexible waterproof sheeting
Ground anchor systems, Tie-down kits, Bungee cords, Ratchet straps, Radios (powered by battery, solar, or hand-crank)
Two-way, Weather band

and Portable Generators Selling for $750 or less.


Invest 91L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 91L


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 91L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 91L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 91L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 91L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 91L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

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Invest 90L Becomes Subtropical Storm Alberto

Posted: 03:17 AM 24 May 2018 | 27 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 02:43 AM 31-May EDT

10AM CT Update 25 May 2018
Advisories for Subtropical Storm Alberto will begin at 11AM this morning.

5AM CT Update 25 May 2018
An organized LLC appears to be developing just off the eastern Yucatan this predawn, with pressures falling at a good clip. Maximum sustained winds as indicated by scatterometer, buoy and ship data support going directly to Alberto upon becoming a numbered cyclone. Should NHC confirm current trends, Advisories on Alberto may begin as soon as today.
-Ciel



Quick 5PM Update 24 May 2018

90L has improved its appearance a great deal this afternoon, wtih a 90% chance for development now, it may develop as early as sometime tomorrow.

Current model trends show a potential impact to the north and northeaster Gulf, with rainfall extending east to Florida peninsula as well this weekend. There is a bit of concern the slow forward motion toward the end of the run may provide some time for strengthening, possibly to hurricane strength, so it is important to keep watch on this system for those in the MS/AL and Florida Panhandle areas.



Quick 9AM Update 24 May 2018



Development chances for Alberto (Tropical or Subtropical) are up to 80%, bringing a good bit of rain. Landfall will likely be somewhere between the MS/LA state line and Panama City Beach, FL. However most of the rain will be on the east side (and sometimes very east) of the center.

On/Off Bands of rain will likely start on Saturday for most of Florida, then moving up to include the Northeast Gulf as the weekend progresses, probably through Monday/Tuesday.

There may be some short lived Tornadoes in a few areas east of the center, so look out for watches if they do come.

There may be some minor storm surge along the north gulf points east of landfall as well.

Those from MS to the Big Bend will want to watch this system very closely for changes, there is a small window for intensification Sunday.


Original Update


A Central American Gyre (CAG) interacting with a stubborn mid-upper level trof over the southern states and Gulf is producing an area of disturbed weather that is gradually organizing in the northwest Caribbean. This expansive hybrid system is being tracked as Invest 90L - not to be confused with the similar, but less coherent, hybrid feature we were watching in the GOM just ten days ago.

What is truly remarkable, is how stubborn this pattern continues to be, already having flipped the Florida dry season on its head in next to no time, and now with even greater chances of a named system, one possibly lingering for several days to come.

With nearly all subtropical and tropical cyclones in general, and certainly the slower moving ones in particular, inland flooding is by far the greatest threat to life and property, and that would be no surprise here, especially given how saturated much of the area already is, and how long this system - and its parents, the Upper Trof and/or the Central American Gyre, may stick around.

According to Dr. Klotzbach, since 1950 only 8 named storms have formed during the last week of May in the Atlantic. In fact, no named storms on record have formed in the GOM at all during this time, so should 90L become Alberto here (very possible), it would indeed be something for the books.

Tropical or subtropical cyclogenesis could happen as soon as later today, with odds forecast to be increasing heading into the weekend. Recent ship and buoy reports suggest that maximum sustained winds associated with 90L may already be on the rise, and based on satellite imagery, so is deep convection. Thus, it would not be inconceivable to see NHC begin advisories on this "Potential Tropical Cyclone" prior to formation given how close it is to land. (In fact, at the time of this entry, 90L's "center" appears to be inland or just barely offshore of the Yucatan).

Invest 90L Model Discussions and Speculations 90L Lounge

Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

Florida Power Outage Maps

Duke Energy Florida Outage Map - Most of Central and Northern Florida

Florida Power and Light Outage Map (Much of South Florida)

Orlando Utilities Commision Outage Map

Tampa Electric Outage Map

JEA (Jacksonville) Outage Map

Gulf Power (Western Panhandle)

Clay Electric Outage Map (Gainsville/ North Central Florida area)

Lakeland Electric Outage Map

Peace River Electrical Cooperative outage map south Central Florida from east of Bradenton, north of North Port to West of Palm Bay and Vero Beach

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Mississippi/Alabama Gulf Coast Media/Links

WLOX TV 13 (ABC) Biloxi

WXXV TV 25 (Fox)Biloxi

WKRG TV 5 (CBS) Mobile

WPMI TV 15 (NBC) Mobile

WALA TV 10 (Fox) Mobile

WEAR TV 3 (ABC) Pensacola, FL

Newspapers

Mobile Register (Al.com) paper

Biloxi Sun Herald paper

Gulf Live

Radio (some)

News Talk 104.9 Biloxi, MS (Radio)

News talk 106.5 Mobile, AL (Radio)

Power Outage

Mississippi Power Outage Map

Alabama Power Outage Map

Alberto Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Alberto


stormplotthumb_1.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Alberto (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Alberto (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Alberto

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Alberto
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Alberto -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


** Please note the floater satellite images linked above are old, nothing new using the new GOES-16 exists yet that matches *

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Rain For Florida and Early Development Possible

Posted: 04:45 PM 13 May 2018 | 6 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 06:24 PM 21-May EDT

This area in the Gulf of Mexico has gotten itself together fairly quickly, and the NHC issued a special tropical weather outlook with a 40% chance for tropical or subtropical development.

The biggest story here will be rainfall, upwards of 5-6 inches in parts of the Florida peninsula.

This system isn't purely tropical now, but it could become a small tropical storm before it would eventually landfall (probably somewhere in the Panhandle Wednesday or Thursday) However, most of the rainfall energy will be well to the east, which should drive the rainy weather toward the Florida peninsula. 5-6 inches in a few places, possibly.

There are signals of increased divergence aloft, which is what would be needed for something tropical or subtropical to form in the system. Shear is still fairly strong, but weakening a bit, with both the GFS and European models showing this area developing into a tropical or subtropical storm in 3 days or so



No invest area currently exists, but likely will soon.

Speculation can be found in The Forecast Lounge

Report what you are seeing where you are at here if you would like.

Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida
test
East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

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CFHC 2018 The Year Ahead

Posted: 12:19 AM 01 January 2018 | 3 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 06:58 AM 09-Apr EDT

This is our 23rd year tracking storms, and the season starts June 1st, 2018.

This coming year is expected to be above average again, but hopefully not like Harvey, Irma, Maria and Nate were this past year.

We'll be watching the tropics once again.

More to come later!

Facebook Update Posted
07:42 pm 18-Jun-2018 EDT

Depression-Like System now bringing banding and training Heavy rains and Tstorms to parts of Tx. May drench the region for several days.

Facebook Update Posted
02:19 pm 18-Jun-2018 EDT

Disturbance now moving into the Texas coast, bringing moderate to heavy showers, thunderstorms and some wind

Facebook Update Posted
12:53 pm 18-Jun-2018 EDT

A closed low may have formed east of Corpus Christi this morning, but limited time over the Gulf a challenge

Facebook Update Posted
04:52 am 18-Jun-2018 EDT

Trof expected to bring some heavy rains to parts of Texas in the new week, but unlikely to develop.

Facebook Update Posted
02:05 pm 16-Jun-2018 EDT

20% Chance of W Gulf Development this weekend. Heavy rains and some winds either way for parts of Yucatan, Texas & Louisiana

Facebook Update Posted
11:55 am 16-Jun-2018 EDT

Good afternoon...while our tropical disturbance down near Yucatan looks somewhat impressive on satellite; the winds aloft are only favorable on the NW side of the system and hostile everywhere else at this time. There is sufficient gradient between an upper ridge center near the Azores with its axis extending westward and its surface high pressure to create strong trade winds near gale force over the western and central Gulf of Mexico. Overall the system will move NW towards TX/LA later in the weekend. There is a small upper low located over NW FL this morning that's been in the area for a few days that developed from a cluster of thunderstorms over MS and has drifted ESE to its current location. This system is not tropical. The remnants of Pacific storm "Bud" is giving parts of AZ and NM some beneficial rainfall but drier weather returns for their neck of the woods starting tomorrow. Winds aloft over the entire southern basin are unfavorable for the foreseeable future. Everybody have a wonderful weekend from wherever all of you hail from!

Facebook Update Posted
01:40 pm 15-Jun-2018 EDT

Another area in the West Caribbean has a 10% chance to develop. May bring rain to Upper TX,SW LA late this weekend.

Facebook Update Posted
02:37 pm 14-Jun-2018 EDT

"91L" has emerged into SW Gulf. Brutal shear keeping it in check near-term, but heavy rain threat increasing MX - TX - LA this weekend.

Facebook Update Posted
07:11 am 14-Jun-2018 EDT

Chances for development of the system in the NW Carib drop to 10%. No other areas likely either.

Facebook Update Posted
09:26 am 13-Jun-2018 EDT

W Caribbean has little to no model support, likely a rain maker for TX, MX. Beyond that, eyes turn to offshore FL E. Coast on Sun.

Facebook Update Posted
12:33 pm 12-Jun-2018 EDT

Disturbance in W Carib a little better organized and has been Invest tagged #91L Chances for development rising.

Facebook Update Posted
02:07 pm 11-Jun-2018 EDT

20% Chance for development late in the week in the SW Gulf, but rain for parts of Central America/Yucatan over the next few days.

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CFHC 2018
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