October Ending with Multiple Systems
Posted: 11:42 AM 25 October 2019 | | Add Comment
Another late-season, formerly non-tropical, hurricane-force cyclone way out in the Atlantic a few hundred miles west of the Azores islands has continued transitioning into a more subtropical to tropical cyclone, and advisories could begin at any time later today on this system. Largely forecast to be short-lived as a subtropical or tropical cyclone, a few of the others this year have exceeded expectations, and interests in and around the Azores islands may want to pay closer attention. The next name up on the list in the Atlantic this year is Rebekah.
Update 11PM CDT Oct 25, 2019
#Olga is now post-tropical. Olga is the 7th Atlantic named storm to last <= 24 hours as a named storm in 2019. 2019 now has the record for most named storms lasting one day or less, breaking the old record of 6 named storms lasting <=24 hours in the 2005 #hurricane season. - Philip Klotzbach
Update 4PM CDT Oct 25, 2019
#Olga and #Pablo are the latest calendar year Atlantic named storms on record to be named simultaneously. The previous record was October 9 (set in 1878). - Philip Klotzbach
Update 2PM CDT Oct 25, 2019
Recon is presently in SEVENTEEN and finding winds well within tropical storm force. In addition, there are structural clues as well as conditions over the gulf with the front suggesting that it may remain predominantly a tropical cyclone for longer than originally expected. Louisianans and those in the north-central Gulf may want to begin paying this storm much more attention.
Invest 98L to the southwest of the Azores may become a Vince-like hurricane and is also likely to be named at any time.
2019 continues to be active, with newly formed TD 17 in the northern Gulf - and quite possibly already a tropical storm pending better confirmation - plus, formerly non-tropical Invest 98L in the northern Atlantic a few hundred miles southwest of the western Azores, which could also get a name at any time. The next two names on the list this year in the Atlantic are Olga and Pablo.
This season has already tied 2005 for 'the most named storms lasting one day or less on record' (Philip Klotzbach), and depending on what happens with SEVENTEEN (or any others perhaps still yet to come), could become the new record holder of one-day-or-less-named storms.
Forecast Lounges: Olga Lounge, Pablo Lounge
OLGA Event Related Links
Floater Satellite Images:
North Gulf Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:
Tropical Storm Nestor in NE Gulf
Posted: 02:55 PM 16 October 2019 | 3 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 11:49 AM 19-Oct EDT
SIXTEEN has become Tropical Storm Nestor. Nestor is a hybridish tropical storm, but tropical enough to qualify. More importantly, the impacts from this cyclone are going to be much more in line with that of a strong tropical storm - and perhaps yet still a hurricane - than garden variety subtropical storms, although very lopsided, with most of the worst weather on the eastern side, for now.
10:00 AM EDT Update 17 October 2019
96L is expected to become a named storm later today or tonight, and NHC advisories have been issued for what is now PTC SIXTEEN.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect east of the Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown, Florida.
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Indian Pass, Florida, to Clearwater, Florida.
Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Area Forecast Discussions:
New Orleans -
Tampa/West Central Florida
Conditions for subtropical and tropical cyclone development closer to home are on the rise climatologically in mid to late October, and right on cue we have a concerning trof in the southwestern Gulf, having split off from the same parent Central American feature that went on to also spin out PTC SEVENTEEN in the eastern Pacific yesterday.
Now over the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche, 96L is showing signs of pulling things together at a somewhat faster clip, and as of this post, NHC gives it a coin toss of becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone within just the next 48 hours.
Nestor Forecast Lounge: Nestor
Tropical Storm Nestor Event Related Links
Melissa and the last part of October
Posted: 07:55 AM 13 October 2019 | | Add Comment
94L is the far east Atlantic off Africa has a higher chance to develop at the moment than the wave in the western Caribbean near Honduras, it wil be worth watching to see if it makes it into the Bay of Campeche or not. We'll be watching that and anything else that pops up.
The area to concentrate on watching the West Caribbean and Gulf this time of year.
Melissa Event Related Links
Floater Satellite Images:
Tropical Depression 15 (East Atlantic Event Related Links
Posted: 11:27 AM 22 September 2019 | 9 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 05:51 PM 26-Sep EDT
Tropical Storm Karen is barely a Tropical storm this morning and now forecast to weaken into an open wave, meaning it will most likely dissipate in the future because of hostile conditions, which is good news. We'll continue to monitor it.
Lorenzo on the other hand is a category 3 hurricane in the open Atlantic, but it is staying out to sea. Although in the long term the Azores may want to watch it to see how close it gets.
No other areas are being really watched right now, as the Yucatan wave never really materialized. The general areas that are watched more closely into October are the Western Caribbean and Gulf, but neither has anything at the moment to watch now..
6:00 AM EDT Update 25 September 2019
Tropical Storm Karen is now north of the Caribbean and forecast to remain a Tropical storm over the next 5 days. The forecast takes it generally north or just east of north until Friday where the system slows down and does a clockwise loop before heading back to the west on the weekend. This is an unusual track, but the building ridge in the wake of now Post-Tropical Jerry should be enough to force it back west, and also likely weaken the system some due to shear. However, how much weakening is up in the air.
Beyond the 5 day track it is possible for Karen to get close to the Bahamas, and those in the Bahamas and even Florida should still watch. The ridge could be strong enough to push Karen fairly far south, although if it does the storm is likely to be very weak. The timing and how long Karen stalls before moving west are key things to watch for the long term impacts, as well as how strong (or weak) Karen is at the time. I'd expect the end of the forecast track to shift south and west over the next few days.
Bottom line Karen needs to be watched for Florida, but too soon to tell what impacts.it would have, if the storm is indeed moving west on Sunday we'll likely have a better general idea then. If it were to impact Florida it would likely be mid to late next week if it stays together as a system (it may dissipate once it moves further west).
Hurricane Lorenzo is still moving west in the far east Atlantic, and forecast to become a major hurricane and recurve well out sea. Although the Azores still may want to keep watch to see how close Lorenzo manages to get later.
Additionally, the Yucatan area has a 20% chance to develop,
5:30 AM EDT Update 24 September 2019
Karen has regained Tropical Storm strength again overnight and is now forecast to be over the eastern side of Puerto Rico this afternoon and quickly move north of the Caribbean. Tropical Storm Warnings remain up for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
After this it is expected to move north or just east of north for most of the week before slowing down over the weekend then moving back to the west all while remaining a tropical storm. Beyond this things still are interestin gas the ridge that develops between Karen and Jerry is strong enough to push Karen westward which means Florida and the Bahamas will need to watch this system into the mid to later part of next week. As of now it looks like shear and dry air conditions will likely keep Karen on the weaker side, but intensity forecasting is very difficult.
Jerry is also weak and moving near Bermuda as a tropical storm, it's closest approach to Bermuda will be tomorrow.
Lorenzo is a tropical storm in the far eastern Atlantic and is forecast to be a major hurricane, but not expected to affect any land areas.
There is also a low chance area for development near the Yucatan (20%) that is being watched.
7:30 AM EDT Update 23 September 2019
Tropical Storm Karen is very weak this morning and could even weaken to depression strength today in the East Caribbean. However there is now a Tropical Storm Warning up for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. And a watch for the British Virgin Islands as it nears the area. Assuming Karen survives conditions are better for development once north of the Caribbean.
Once beyond the Caribbean the Bahamas and Florida may want to watch this and the models suggest the ridge will be strong enough after Jerry moves out to push Karen toward the west toward Florida and the Bahamas, the forecast track shows the bend west at the end. .Plenty of time to watch, but Karen has a much higher chance to be forced west than any of the other recent systems.
Tropical Depression 13 formed in the east Atlantic off Africa. This one is expected to stay out to sea, but may near the Azores at some point.
Tropical Storm watches are up for Bermuda for Jerry as it is expected to pass enough north for only some of the impacts to be felt there, those in Bermuda should continue to watch it closely in case of changes.
Tropical Storm Karen has formed near the southern windward islands in the Caribbean, * this one should be followed very closely over the next two weeks *. Because of the current position, Tropical Storm Warnings are up for Trinidad and Tobago, Grenada and its dependencies, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
Tropical Storm watches are now up for Puerto Rico, the US and British Virgin Islands and also Vieques and Culebra.
Currently Karen is expected tor remain a tropical storm while in the Caribbean as it is somewhat disorganized and fighting shear, there is a potential for the system to fall apart completely if the shear intensifies too much.
If it survives, beyond the Caribbean, the track slows, and becomes very complex. after the 5 day time period of the official forecast, some of the more reliable models suggest the ridge builds back to the north which would drive Karen almost due west. So those in the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida should monitor this over the coming week. If it does affect Cuba or Florida it would likely be around October 1st (give of take a few days). Plenty of time to watch to see if this hard left idea materializes or not and how strong Karen is at this time.
Tropical Storm Jerry is still a few days out, no watches are up for Bermuda at this time.
Outside of the two systems there in an area just off Africa that has a 90% chance for development.
As always, feel free to follow along with us in the Forecast Lounge, where we dive into a good deal of model talk. Active Lounges include:
Invest 96L Lounge , Jerry Lounge, Karen Lounge, Lorenzo Lounge
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Bermuda Weather Service
Karen Event Related Links
Back Half of the Season Kicking off With Multiple Systems
Posted: 08:00 PM 16 September 2019 | | Add Comment
Conditions for development across the Atlantic are entering a new phase, with several systems worth watching, not the least of which is powerful Hurricane Humberto, now expected to become a Major within the next 36 hours and potentially directly impact Bermuda.
Much closer to the CONUS, an area of disturbed weather in the western Gulf of Mexico has strong model support to produce a deluge in eastern Texas whether or not it ever gets a name. This system is potentially a particularly dangerous situation unfolding, and just because it does not already have a name (and may never get one) is no reason not to prepare for something akin to a very slow moving Tropical Storm, with training bands of showers and thunderstorms setting up over some of the same areas - exact locations which as of yet are still unknown, but could even include parts of the very flood-prone Houston metro.
In the eastern Caribbean we are still keeping an eye out on Invest 96L, which is being held in check from high shear. However, behind 96L we are laser focused on 97L, with now 90% NHC odds of development, and a track that at this point is just too close to call for the Antilles.
As always, feel free to follow along with us in the Forecast Lounge, where we dive into a good deal of model talk.
Current active Lounges include:
Humberto Lounge , Invest 96L Lounge , Jerry Lounge, Imelda Lounge , Invest 99L Lounge
Harris County Flood Warning System
Houston/Galveston Related Links:
Bermuda Weather Service
Humberto Event Related Links
Floater Satellite Images:
East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:
Facebook Update Posted
07:38 am 03-Sep-2019 EDT
Potential Tropical Depression 7 in the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to make landfall in Northeast Mexico as a Tropical Storm Tomorrow.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Wednesday evening, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.
RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts
of 15 inches will be likely over portions of northeastern Mexico,
especially in mountainous terrain.
Facebook Update Posted
07:36 am 03-Sep-2019 EDT
Hurricane Dorian is still stationary this morning,and the eye is starting to fill in because of cool water it's been pulling in from elsewhere, it is expected to finally begin to move north northwest away from Grand Bahama later today.
Facebook Update Posted
05:47 pm 02-Sep-2019 EDT
Levi Cowan Video update for Labor Day https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=7&v=_K5L-ezGq4Y
Facebook Update Posted
01:24 pm 02-Sep-2019 EDT
Facebook Update Posted
12:30 pm 02-Sep-2019 EDT
Mark Sudduth from Hurricanetrack.com is in Central Florida today setting up remote unmanned cameras for Dorian. You can follow along in his live stream here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UX_-NKrcQQ8
Facebook Update Posted
12:02 pm 02-Sep-2019 EDT
Local statement for E. Central Florida from Melbourne NWS office:
Extremely powerful Hurricane Dorian continues meandering over the
northwestern Bahamas as its eye wall continues to pound Grand Bahama
and Great Abaco islands this morning. The situation remains very
serious for east central Florida, and especially the coastal counties
of Martin, Saint Lucie, Indian River, Brevard and Volusia.
Dorian is an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane with winds near
155 mph. Dorian will slowly emerge north of Grand Bahama Island later
today, and begin to move very slowly toward the northwest and closer
to east central Florida through tonight. As Dorian slowly begins to
make its closest approach to east central Florida, it is expected to
turn north-northwest and parallel the coast from Tuesday into
Although it remains uncertain just how close the eye of Dorian will
get to the Florida east coast, the threat of damaging winds and life-
threatening storm surge remains high. There will be considerable
impacts and damage to coastal areas, with at least some effects felt
inland as well!
Strong tropical storm force winds between 40 and 55 mph, with gusts to
hurricane force, will spread north into Martin and Saint Lucie
Counties starting by this evening, then spread farther north into
Indian River County after midnight, and then across Brevard and
coastal Volusia Counties Tuesday through Tuesday night. The threat for
damaging winds is high for the coastal counties and any remaining
preparations for Dorian should be rushed to completion before strong
winds move into the area!
Inland communities will also have an increased threat for tropical
storm force winds, especially in eastern Okeechobee, Osceola, Orange
and Seminole Counties, as well as inland Volusia County. These strong
winds will reach Okeechobee and Osceola Counties beginning early
Tuesday morning. Farther north over the interior, winds to near
tropical storm force will begin Tuesday afternoon. Thus, a Tropical
Storm Warning has been issued for Orange, Seminole, Lake, and Inland
Volusia Counties. This will be a long duration event, with the worst
conditions lasting 18 to 24 hours!
The threat for life-threatening storm surge also remains high, and
severe erosion of the beaches and dune lines is a near certainty! The
combination of surge and high astronomical tides will cause severe
runup of waves and water, resulting in inundation of many coastal
locations. Surge may reach 4 to 7 feet above ground near the coast.
Large battering waves and higher than normal tides on top of the surge
will add to the destructive force of the water during several high
tide cycles. Needless to say, entering the water can be deadly as
there will also be numerous strong rip currents, in addition to the
very large breaking waves that will build in excess of 10 feet.
Heavy rainfall is forecast over east central Florida from Dorian, with
total amounts of 4 to 8 inches over the coastal counties and 3 to
6 inches inland, with maximum isolated rainfall amounts up to
10 inches along the coast. While isolated flash flooding will be
possible inland, it will be even more likely near the coast in urban
and poorly drained, low lying areas. Flooding and high water levels on
area rivers such as the Saint Johns River will be aggravated.
While threat remains low, isolated tornadoes will be possible in
squalls as they move onshore along the coast this afternoon through
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across the coastal counties of Volusia, Brevard, Indian River,
Saint Lucie and Martin. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
uninhabitable for weeks.
- Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
access routes impassable.
- Large areas with power and communications outages.
Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across the interior counties of Okeechobee,
Osceola, Orange, Seminole and inland Volusia.
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive
impacts from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet. Potential impacts in this
- Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
barriers may become stressed.
- Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
- Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.
* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across all of east central Florida, with the threat remaining
highest along coastal areas. Potential impacts include:
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals,
arroyos, and ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts in the
coastal counties of Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, Saint Lucie and
Martin. Potential impacts include:
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
pulled from moorings.