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NHC Advisories to begin on TD28 in the Caribbean. Remains a little dishoveled but expected to intensify.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 15 (Delta) , Major: 59 (Laura) Florida - Any: 745 (Michael) Major: 745 (Michael)
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Late Season Activity Heating up Close to Home

Posted: 03:53 PM 23 October 2020 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 02:29 PM 24-Oct EDT

4:30PM EDT 24 October 2020 Update
Recon has found just enough organization for Invest 95L to qualify as a TD, and NHC advisories are being issued. Interests in the north-northwest Caribbean and north-northeast Gulf of Mexico may want to begin paying close attention.





Conditions for development in the western Atlantic are going up this week and forecast to remain at least somewhat favorable in spots for a while. Given that we are in a record-setting hyperactive season that started early and may very well end late, and with several additional disturbances possible over the next few weeks, this region, much closer to home, deserves more attention than usual at this time of year.

Today, October 23rd, we are watching a vigorous disturbance in the Caribbean that has rapidly pulled itself together in just the past 18 hours, Invest 95L. This Low may become a Tropical Cyclone as soon as later today or tonight, and interests from Cuba to the Yucatan, S Florida, the Keys, and maybe the Bahamas or even the north central Gulf, may want to begin following closely.

Recon is scheduled to fly 95L tomorrow. It is possible that they will find a Tropical Storm at that time. The next Greek name on the list to be used is Zeta, and would tie 2005 for the most named storms at twenty-seven. 2005 also had an unnamed storm added post-season, for a total of 28 cyclones with sustained winds at or above 39 MPH.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Epsilon is now heading out to sea, but may become a very powerful post-tropical cyclone while approaching Europe next week.


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Late October Activity

Posted: 09:14 PM 17 October 2020 | | Add Comment

3AM EDT Update 23 October 2020
An area of low pressure in the north central Caribbean has been Invest tagged 95L and is worth monitoring closely.
-Ciel


8AM EDT Update 19 October 2020

Tropical Depression 27 forms from 94L, the cone takes it near, but east of Bermuda, and is likely no threat to land beyond the island. Another area in the west Caribbean has a 20% chance to develop, but is also unlikely to do much.

Original Update

There's a 90% chance area in the Central Atlantic (Invest 94L) that likely will develop as a subtropical depression or storm, and generally move away from land.

Another area in the west Caribbean has a 30% chance to develop, mostly mid to late this coming week. It's worth watching because of the area, but there is no solid indication that it will develop or where it may go. Other than those in the Caymans, and Cuba will want to watch it closely. Beyond that is into high speculation. That can be found in the forecast lounge.

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Invest 95L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 95L - New for 2018


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NRL Info on 95L -- RAMMB Info
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Epsilon Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Epsilon - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Epsilon


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Epsilon (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
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Clark Evans Track Plot of Epsilon

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Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Epsilon
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NRL Info on Epsilon -- RAMMB Info
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Early October Activity

Posted: 11:50 AM 01 October 2020 | 4 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 07:55 PM 08-Oct EDT

4:00PM CDT 06 October 2020 Update
Hurricane Delta is a Category 4 hurricane with 145mph winds in the Northwest Caribbean, expected to landfall in the Northeastern Yucatan (Cozumel and Cancun area) tomorrow morning.

In the Yucatan, the life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels in areas of onshore winds by as much as 9 to 13 ft above normal tide levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Beyond the impacts of the Yucatan it will have time to strengthen, but as it moves further into the Gulf increasing southwesterly shear and the cooler shelf waters over the northern Gulf are expected to cause some reduction in wind speed as it gets closer to land, but a significant increase in the size of Delta's wind field while it is over the Gulf of Mexico, which increases the spatial extent of the storm surge and wind threats for the northern Gulf coast. So regardless of Delta's final landfall intensity, the projected large size of the hurricane is likely to result in a very significant storm surge and wind event for portions of the northern Gulf coast later this week. Likely moreso than Sally or Laura.

Those in the areas please listen to local media and officials.



6:40PM CDT 05 October 2020 Update
Recon has found a closed eye. Pressure is down to at least 983mb, and it is just a matter of time before winds catch up to the pressure and structure. As we head into the overnight hours, it is becoming possible that Delta could bomb and become a very dangerous and formidable Major hurricane even sooner rather than later.

Model discussion is now open in the Delta Forecast Lounge .
-Ciel


5:40PM CDT 05 October 2020 Update
Delta continues to rapidly strengthen. The forecast calling for Delta to become a Major once in the GOM may actually be behind the curve, as the forecast has been to this point.

This cyclone is in a very favorable environment for Rapid Intensification over the next day or two at least and as Gamma has continued to weaken, likely helping alter conditions in the Gulf, it remains to be seen what could detrimentally impact Delta prior to landfall in the southern US (location still uncertain, but models are generally focused on Louisiana to W Florida panhandle.

Interests in the Northwestern Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico may want to begin preparing for the impact of what could become a fairly stout Major Hurricane.
-Ciel


3:00AM CDT 03 October 2020 Update
Gamma is intensifying tonight, with a recent blowup of very deep convection within the center of circulation. Recon is finding continual pressure drops, and winds are rising. In addition to being a substantial rain and flood threat for locations in the northwest Caribbean, Gamma very well may be making a mad dash to exceed wind and wave intensity forecasts.

Elsewhere, the wave behind Gamma may loop around it next week and could enter the Gulf. Behind that, even yet another approaching wave is up to bat, and is already looking active. Both of these are not yet Invest tagged, but could be over the weekend.
-Ciel

Original Entry
Two areas are being watched for early October, Invest 91L in the West Caribbean with a 70% chance to develop and another area east of the leeward islands with a 20% chance to develop over the next 5 days.

The impacts beyond the short term are unclear for both, but likely should be watched by the Yucatan, Gulf, and Caribbean islands.

Delta Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Delta - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Delta


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Delta (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Delta (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Delta

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Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Delta
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NRL Info on Delta -- RAMMB Info
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    The Gulf and Bermuda

    Posted: 02:24 PM 17 September 2020 | | Add Comment

    4:30PM CDT 21 September 2020 Update
    Struggling Beta and now former Alpha that formed but then poofed over Portugal begin the Greek Alphabeta with weaker storms, so far. Nonetheless, Beta is in the Gulf of Mexico, bringing some storm surge, as well as some areas of very heavy and flooding rains, to eastern Texas, and that is impactful.

    We are getting into the time of year when we start to watch for more of these homegrown type systems, which both landfalling Beta and Sally before it have been, and in that vein, we are watching an area in the eastern Gulf to south of Florida that has some chance of development this week, currently too small for the global models to sniff out, but with NHC 20% odds that could be going up.

    4:30PM GMT 18 September 2020 Update
    We've gone Greek!
    But it might not be the system you were expecting, as NHC has pulled the trigger on the hybrid tropical cyclone making its approach on Portugal we have been watching as one of the three systems that could be named before the week is up. This makes the Atlantic basin's second naming just today, with 98L becoming Wilfred this morning.

    10:00AM CDT 18 September 2020 Update

    Invest 98L in the eastern Atlantic has become Tropical Storm Wilfred, which means that TD22 if named later today would become the Alpha storm.

    The latest thinking on TD22 is that it tracks north a little while longer, then hooks left toward the Texas coast, may go a bit inland, hug the coast, or stay just offshore, and begin moving northeast. Whatever it does, it will likely do at a gradual pace, and the closer it gets to land, the greater the threat of flooding. TWENTY-TWO may be a very sticky cyclone, and even if it never becomes a major hurricane, could be especially dangerous as a major flood-maker owing to its slow motion.

    Elsewhere, Major Hurricane Teddy is heading northwest and is giving Bermuda sweats as it looks to be a close call. After that there is some question as to the odds of it heading into the Gulf of Maine or plowing into Nova Scotia.

    Other features we are keeping an eye on is Invest Paulette in the far northern Atlantic, and yet another wave rolling off Africa.

    Invest 99L is making landfall on Portugal, yes Portugal, as an unnamed hybrid Tropical Cyclone.


    6:00PM CDT 17 September 2020 Update
    Recon finds Invest 90L has become a Tropical Depression, the remarkable 22nd of this hyperactive season, and Special Advisories have been issued.
    Quote:

    SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...21.9N 94.3W
    ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
    ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES




    Elsewhere, Hurricane Teddy is now at least a 140 MPH Cat 4, and is expected to remain in a favorable environment for the next two days or so. Consequently, as Rapid Intensification is still underway, it is possible that Teddy could have 2020 become the record fifth season in a row with at least one Cat 5 in the Atlantic basin, breaking the record of four set just last year. Prior to this stretch, the prior record of back-to-back seasons seeing a Category Five in the ATL was during the 2003-04-05 stretch.

    Original Update
    In a dizzying near déjà vu, we are closely tracking two systems, one named (Major Hurricane Teddy), and one still not yet a full-fledged TC (Invest 90L), that are forecast to impact both Bermuda and locations in the Gulf of Mexico, again, this week.

    Closest to land, Invest 90L is very nearly a tropical cyclone today, and after some period of meandering about in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to turn toward the north, or northeast, and interests from Texas to western Florida may want to begin tracking it closely. Model support for strengthening is soft, but model support for the Invest that went on to become Sally was similarly light at this stage in that future cyclone's development as well.

    On approach to a date with the British Overseas Territory of Bermuda is now Major Hurricane Teddy. Teddy is traveling through a favorable environment and has responded with more strengthening today, but could taper off a bit as it nears Bermuda late this weekend or very early next week, when it crosses over less warm SSTs left in the wake of Paulette, which went right over Bermuda in the predawn hours Monday, just three days ago.

    In the far eastern Atlantic we are keeping an eye out on a wave, Invest 98L, that has about a 50/50 shot at development as it tracks generally west-northwest.

    Elsewhere, a transitional non-tropical low with some tropical characteristics is approaching western Europe, with 30% NHC odds of becoming a sub-tropical or tropical cyclone before it makes landfall on or around Portugal late Friday. And a little bit east from there Europe is tracking Medicane Ianos, which could become one of the strongest Medicanes on record before it makes landfall on Greece later Friday or Saturday. Modeling suggests pressures getting down to about 980mb. Fitting to have a TC set to make landfall on Greece right about the time we have to turn to the Greek alphabet to begin naming our own. Very 2020.

    Beta Event Related Links

    Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Beta - New for 2018


    Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Beta


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    SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


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    NRL Info on Beta -- RAMMB Info
    COD Atlantic Satellite View

    Invest 90L Forecast Lounge

    Teddy Event Related Links

    Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Teddy - New for 2018


    Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Teddy


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    Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Teddy (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
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    Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Teddy
    More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
    NRL Info on Teddy -- RAMMB Info
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    Alpha Event Related Links

    Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Alpha - New for 2018


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    Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Alpha (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
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    Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Alpha
    More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
    NRL Info on Alpha -- RAMMB Info
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    Wilfred Event Related Links

    Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Wilfred - New for 2018


    Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Wilfred


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    Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Wilfred (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
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    Clark Evans Track Plot of Wilfred

    Other Model Charts from Clark

    Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Wilfred
    More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
    NRL Info on Wilfred -- RAMMB Info
    COD Atlantic Satellite View

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    Bermuda and the Gulf

    Posted: 11:07 AM 12 September 2020 | 9 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 02:49 AM 16-Sep EDT

    1:30AM CDT 16 September 2020 Update
    Sally is now a still-intensifying 105 MPH Cat 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Also, Teddy has rapidly jumped from Tropical Storm to an 85 MPH Hurricane Teddy. Teddy may become Bermuda's second direct hit this season, even stronger than Paulette, as a Major. Speaking of Major Hurricanes, there is a moderate to high chance that Sally becomes a Major hurricane by sunrise.
    NHC
    Quote:

    Hurricane Sally Special Advisory Number 20
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
    130 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

    ...SALLY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREAD ONSHORE THE GULF COAST FROM PENSACOLA BEACH FLORIDA WESTWARD TO DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA...
    ...HISTORIC LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


    SUMMARY OF 130 AM CDT...0630 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...29.9N 87.8W
    ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
    ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    A Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from the Mouth of the
    Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
    * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida
    * Mobile Bay

    A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
    * East of Bay St. Louis Mississippi to the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * East of the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida to Indian Pass Florida
    * Bay St. Louis Mississippi westward to Grand Isle Louisiana



    -Ciel

    11:30PM CDT 15 September 2020 Update
    Technical note, Sally's advisory in the Current Storms bar is not updating and so please disregard.

    Sally is now likely a Cat 2 and may have some regions of gusts into Cat 3 (in gusts). Still strengthening.

    Epic flooding underway. NWS Mobile, Al just reported **OVER 16 INCHES** so far and counting.

    Efforts to protect life and property should have already been completed, and in the evac zones one should only be on the road if clearly safe to do so and heading for higher ground pronto. It may already be too late, and loss of property and life in this hurricane could be much higher than feared with many disregarding it for 'only being Cat 1.'
    -Ciel


    7:45PM CDT 15 September 2020 Update
    Sally is strengthening into landfall, with both pressure lowering, and with more parts of the now expansive wind field hitting Category 1 force, with indications that gusts to Cat 2 may becoming somewhat widespread in the northeast quadrant. Additionally, mini-supercells within the banding are starting to spin waterspouts and as these travel further onto land, tornadoes.

    But the wind and tornado threat as bad as they are, Sally's calling card is most likely to be her flooding, both storm surge, and inland flooding. As examples, rivers may back up due to the combination of surge from the south, and runoff from everywhere else, then spill out over towns and roads to become storm-made lakes suddenly appearing seemingly out of nowhere, etc. The surge susceptible northeast Gulf will likely see some places with water reaching very dangerous and life-threatening levels, etc.

    Update Watches, Warnings and Discussions

    WPC:
    THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING, POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING, IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING TRACK OF HURRICANE SALLY...
    *Weather conditions indicate that significant flooding can be expected during the outlook period.
    * The latest forecast storm total rainfall from Sally calls for 10 to 20+ inches of rain from far southeastern Mississippi to the western Florida Panhandle, with 4 to 8 inches (and locally higher amounts) farther inland along the track through the Southeast U.S.

    NHC:
    TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...
    ...HISTORIC LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

    A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
    * Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Mobile Bay

    A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * East of Bay St. Louis Mississippi to Navarre Florida

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida * Bay St. Louis Mississippi westward to Grand Isle Louisiana

    SPC:
    The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch for portions of a small part of southwest Alabama and much of the Florida Panhandle Coastal Waters. Effective this Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning from 550 PM until 600 AM CDT.
    -Ciel


    6:45AM CDT 15 September 2020 Update
    Hurricane Sally, after a quick intensification run yesterday, has leveled off and weakened slightly back to an 85MPH category 1 hurricane.

    It may make be making another strengthening run this morning, but the time for that is short as shear may be picking up as it moves slowly toward land and will likely be on a weakening trend then. However, surge and ultra flooding rainfall are already a problem in certain areas along the GUlf coast, and the rain likely won't stop all day in areas it has started, particularly from about Destin, FL to Gulfport, MS. Areas east of there will get lots of banding rain, but not as frequently. Flooding likely will be historic for the area. Landfall isn't even forecast until late Wednesday morning.

    The hurricane warning now is from East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Navarre Florida

    3:30AM CDT 15 September 2020 Update

    Right now all eyes are rightly focused on the northern Gulf of Mexico with Hurricane Sally. However, while we are in the middle of track intermission as the cyclone is pulling up to a crawl and maybe even a stall, it is worth pointing out that 2020 is also presently extremely active in the rest of the Atlantic basin - and even the Mediterranean basin! (which in many ways is sort of an extension of the Atlantic at this time of year).

    2020 is a hyperactive season. We are on the cusp of entering the Greek alphabet, and sooner than we did in '05. Now is a perfect time to recheck and update preps - even those not in the path of Sally - as it looks like the season is nowhere near wrapping up just yet.
    -Ciel

    10:00PM CDT 14 September 2020 Update
    Hurricane Sally has slowed strengthening (at least for now) as a 100mph hurricane and is moving extremely slowly to the west northwest. This makes the track very difficult to pinpoint as it may drift east or west for unknown periods of time.
    Basically, from the NHC, There continues to be a significant amount of uncertainty on exactly where and when Sally turns northward and makes landfall, with model solutions ranging from a landfall on the Florida panhandle to a landfall in extreme southeastern Louisiana. It should be emphasized that it is always challenging to forecast the track of hurricanes in weak steering currents, and in Sally's case the weak steering is occurring very near land.

    There is a chance Sally could have another strenghtening run before landfall, so be aware, but somewhere between about 12-24 hours shear will likely start to pick up to hold off any further intensification.. Surge and rainfall will be a large problem, so far the bands have slipped onto parts of the Panhandle and Alabama and will expand further west and more inland over time tomorrow.

    The Hurricane Warning west of Grand Isle to Morgan City, Louisiana, has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. But The Hurricane warning remains up east of Grand isle to the Florida/Alabama border.

    Surge estimates have shifted east from 6-9 feet across most of Missisippi and Mobile bay, and 4-7 feet east toward Pensacola.


    3:00PM EDT 14 September 2020 Update
    The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. It goes without saying that 2020 is a record-setting, hyperactive year. Just how record-setting and hyperactive? Here are a few tidbits.

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on five tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin, tying the record for the most number of tracked TCs there at one time, for the first time since September 1971.

    We now have Vicky. We've only had a "V" storm one other time. Vince, of 2005. Of October, 2005. Vicky is also the earliest 20th Atlantic named storm. The prior record was held when Tammy was named on October 5, 2005. (There was a previously unnamed storm identified post-season in 2005 between Stan and Tammy).

    Sally will now likely make landfall as a hurricane. This would be the 4th hurricane landfall this year, and potentially as a Major. The most recent year with 4 or more US hurricane landfalls was 2005, with a total of 5 that year.

    Sally has become the 4th hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico this season. Only 5 other years in the official record have had four or more GOM hurricanes by this date. Those years were 1886, 1933, 1936, 2005 and 2017.

    Sally has become the 7th hurricane of 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Only six other years in the official record have had seven or more hurricanes by this date. Those years were 1886, 1893, 1933, 1995, 2005, and 2012.


    Sources: Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Dr. Marshall Shepherd, NHC
    -Ciel

    12:00PM EDT 14 September 2020 Update

    ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT SALLY HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED TO A HURRICANE...

    7:00AM EDT 14 September 2020 Update
    Busy in the tropics, Tropical Storm Teddy has formed in the east Atlantic, Hurricane Paulette is over Bermuda, Tropical Depression 21 has formed.off the coast of Africa, and Rene is still holding on as a tropical Depression, and Sally...

    The organization of Sally hasn't changed much during the overnight as thought judging by the convection burst that started last night, based on recon flights it did not translate into any intensification this time. It also shifted a bit west, that said the current forecast track looks fairly good, slow movement, category 1 or 2 hurricane landfall and shortly after (or just during) landfall the storm is expected to weaken quickly. The flooding rains and surge will likely be the biggest impact, although short lived tornadoes and cat 1/2 wind damage is still likely in some airs.

    The system is expected to move very slowly toward Southeast Louisiana then curve slowly northward into coastal Mississippi, with very heavy rains at times, especially near the center. Most of the rain is currently offshore except for bands right near Panama City, FL, they will become more and more frequent into Tuesday Evening.

    Storm surge flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
    short distances. Rainfall will likely be 8 to 24 inches in various areas depending on the exact path of the storm.



    Hurricane Paulette is has moved directly over Bermuda and most of the island is currently within the eye.

    11:30AM EDT 13 September 2020 Update
    Sally is now a strengthening 60mph Tropical Storm, Hurricane Warnings are up for much of Southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi.

    Changes now, the Hurricane Warning along the coast of Louisiana has been extended westward to Morgan City.
    A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Louisiana from west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City.

    Today will be the last full day to prepare in the area. Please listen to local media

    Storm Surge is forecast to be between 4-11 feet ins parts of SE Lousiana, and 4-7 in Mississippi, depending on the exact angle of approach of the system.

    3:30PM EDT 12 September 2020 Update
    TD19 is now Tropical Storm Sally. Additional Watches/Warnings may be issued at 5PM.

    Original Update
    Tropical Depression 19 is affecting the Florida Keys and South Florida right now, and is currently over the everglades and expected to move into the Gulf later today. The forecast now calls for a hurricane at landfall in the northern gulf, and hurricane and storm surge watches may be issued for areas in the cone later today.

    There is some potential for this system to develop to be even stronger than currently forecast before reaching the northern Gulf, so please pay attention to updates surrounding it and listen to local media and officials for any information specific to your area. Or look at the Local Storm Statements from your local national weather service office.

    One interesting bit to note, the track direction is one that has high surge potential for those to the right of landfall as it gives longer periods of onshore winds than a typical track to the north Gulf. So look for high potential for surge flooding along a wider area.

    Right now only a Tropical Storm watch is up for Ochlockonee River to Okaloosa/Walton County Line

    Recon is scheduled to investigate TD19 in a few hours. If it gets named, which is likely today, it will be Sally.

    Hurricane Warnings are now up for Bermuda from Paulette, now forecast to be a category 2 when near Bermuda.
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    North Gulf Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

    Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

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    Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA - Houston/Galveston, TX

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    Bermuda Newspapers/Media:

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