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The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts June 1st, 2023.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 28 (Nicole) , Major: 70 (Ian) Florida - Any: 28 (Nicole) Major: 70 (Ian)
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Hurricane Nicole

Posted: 06:10 AM 07 November 2022 | 3 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 07:03 AM 08-Nov EDT

6:00 PM EST 9 November 2022 Update
Nicole has been upgraded to a hurricane.

10:30 AM EST 8 November 2022 Update
Nicole is now a fully tropical storm, and Hurricane Warnings are now up along the east coast of Florida from Boca Raton, north to the Volusia/Flagler county line as Nicole is forecast to be a category 1 hurricane at landfall late tomorrow night.

Tropical Storm watches are also up from Altamaha Sound near Brunswick, GA to the Savannah River.

Please consult local media and officials for the best information for your local area.

7:30 AM EST 8 November 2022 Update
From recon Nicole is a little stronger this morning, down to 995 (And possibly a little lower now). Watch/warning wise the only change since last night is there are tropical storm watches now up along parts of the west coast of Florida. Tropical Storm warnings and a hurricane watch are still up for the east coast of Florida. A hurricane warning may be issued for parts of the east coast of Florida later today. Nicole is forecast to become purely tropical later today (it's already showing signs of starting to do that), and a category 1 hurricane tomorrow night before landfall along the east Florida coast, with a large area to the north of the landfall point likely to see the worst surge. For those along the east coast, the wind should generally start to pick up today, and especially tomorrow afternoon and evening. I'd bring in or tie down anything loose outdoors you can today if you can since the wind on the north side of the storm is going to be very continual once it gets going and if you're along the east coast in the hurricane watch area, consider doing more preparation.

Please check local officials and media for the best information for your particular area.

10:00 PM EST 7 November 2022 Update
Nicole is a little stronger tonight, with pressure falling to 998mb, recon is en route to check it again. Some dry air has wrapped around it, delaying any significant strengthening.

Tropical Storm warnings are now up for most of the east coast of Florida and part of Georgia, from Hallandale Beach Florida northward to Altamaha Sound in Georgia and Lake Okeechobee . As as well as storm surge warnings along the coast and up the st. Johns. Important to note that the hurricane watch is still up, however, as it will take longer for the hurricane conditions to reach land than the tropical storm conditions. Some portion of the tropical storm warning area may be upgraded to a hurricane warning tomorrow. Watches are conditions expected within 48 hours, while warnings are within 36 hours. Again to point out because of the hybrid/subtropical nature of this the winds on the north side will be much larger in area than a typical tropical storm, so most of Thursday will be very windy, and it'll begin to pick up tomorrow slowly into Wednesday night. I'd strongly recommend securing anything loose outside tomorrow if you are anywhere in the watch/warning area.

Hurricane Warnings remain up for the Northwestern Bahamas.

Watches for portions of the Florida west coast also may go up tomorrow.

4:00 PM EST 7 November 2022 Update
Hurricane Warnings now up for the Northwestern Bahamas. Storm surge watch extended further south into the St. Johns river to Palatka. Huirricane still forecast to landfall in Florida Thursday.

Update us on Conditions in your area for Nicole Here


10:30 AM EST 7 November 2022 Update

Hurricane Watches are up for a good portion of South and East Central Florida, Brevard/Volusia down to Hallandale. Nicole is forecast to be a hurricane at landfall late Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning.

With a large area of winds on the north side, please do not concentrate on the cone itself along the coast, watches/warnings may expand later.


Original Update
Subtropical Storm Nicole Has formed east of the Bahamas and is expected to move toward the Northwestern Bahamas and then Florida Wednesday night into Thursday. Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches are likely to be issued for parts of Florida Later Today.

Nicole currently is subtropical but is forecast to become fully tropical in a few days, the current forecast keeps it just shy of hurricane force before landfall, but the potential exists for a hurricane. Nicole is a very large storm, and with the pressure gradient with the high to the north gradient driven winds will enhance the winds on the north side of Nicole, bringing a prolonged period of coastal flooding, tropical storm form winds, heavy rainfall, surf and rip currents, beach erosion and surge flooding potentially across the SE US coast Georgia up to NC/Virginia and East Florida.

More rain for parts of Florida from Wednesday-Friday, before it moves north. The worst weather, especially winds, is likely to be on the northern half of the storm, but it's important to note the area of impact is going to be large, all the cone particularly on the north side of it will likely be impacted.

Much uncertainty still exists in the final track and intensity of the system. However, impacts to eastern Florida
are expected whether the storm remains sub-tropical or becomes tropical. Preparations need to be completed prior to Wed, as conditions will rapidly deteriorate into Wednesday afternoon, night, and into Thursday. Those still dealing with the devastating impacts from Hurricane Ian are especially encouraged to make preparations and monitor the forecast.

Check local media and officials for the best information for your local area.

Nicole Event Related Links


float17latest.gif stormplotthumb_17.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=17 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Nicole
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Nicole


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Nicole (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Nicole (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Nicole

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Nicole
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Nicole -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



Invest 97L Event Related Links


float18latest.gif stormplotthumb_18.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=18 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 97
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 97


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 97 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 97 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 97

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 97
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 97 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


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Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


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November Areas that should be Watched Closely

Posted: 08:02 PM 05 November 2022 | 2 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 07:41 AM 06-Nov EDT

1:30PM EST 6 November 2022 Update
The area north of Puerto rico is up to 90% chance to develop in the next 5 days. The National Hurricane Center has indicated that tropical storm, hurricane, and storm surge watches could go up as early as tomorrow morning for parts of the Central and Northwestern Bahamas and Florida east coast for the system which would likely arrive in the middle part of the week (Wednesday Night or Thursday). Regardless of development or exact track, there is risk of coastal flooding, tropical storm force winds (with a high gradient driven pattern), heavy rain, rough surf and beach erosion along the east Florida coast. It's important to monitor this system closely over the next few days.


7AM EST 6 November 2022 Update
The area east of Bermuda has a 70% chance to develop.

The bigger story is the area north of Puerto Rico that now has a 90% chance to develop into a tropical or subtropical storm, now with most of the major forecast models projecting a potential hurricane approaching the Bahamas and Florida on top of it, forecast advisories are very likely to begin at least late today on this system. For local information please check officials and local media. It may be very close to Florida late Wednesday night or Early Thursday morning.

This system is likely going to a be a large system, with a large wind field because of strong pressure gradients with a high to the north, which will likely translate into a lot of coastal erosion and flooding along the east coast of Florida and north, potentially up to North Carolina. Beaches will likely be very dangerous for currents into the week. Rainfall from this area in Puerto Rico has brought flooding conditions there.

This system at least will be impactful to east Florida in the form of wind, rainfall, and dangerous beach/marine conditions. Depending on the system's strength and track, significant rainfall and increased flooding, surge and wind concerns may also unfold. Important to note that the pattern setting up for this allows this system to continue to strengthen even right up to a potential landfall.

Original Update

Two areas are red on the outlook map this evening, the area east of Bermuda (Invest 97L), which has a 70% chance to develop over the next 48 hours.

The other area, currently near Puerto Rico and heading toward the general vicinity of the Bahamas, has an 80% chance to develop over the next 5 days, and 50% in the next 48 hours. It's currently bringing flooding rainfall to parts of Puerto Rico. This system those in the Bahamas, Florida, and the Southeast US needs to watch closely as it has the potential to become tropical or subtropical over the next few days. And this along with a high pressure more to the north will likely create a large windfield which will increase risk of coastal flooding, erosion and very high surf along the east coast of Florida potentially up through North Carolina. There remains a possibility it could get stronger as well, so it's important that it be watched closely by those in the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida.

The next two names on the list are Nicole and Owen.


Nicole Event Related Links


float17latest.gif stormplotthumb_17.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=17 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Nicole
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Nicole


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Nicole (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Nicole (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Nicole

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Nicole
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Nicole -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



Invest 97L Event Related Links


float18latest.gif stormplotthumb_18.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=18 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 97
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 97


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 97 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 97 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 97

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 97
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 97 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


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San Juan, PR NWS Page

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More 94 FM Bahamas

Newspapers:

Bahamas Tribune

Nassau Guardian

Bahamas B2B

The Abaconian - Abaco Island News

Freeport News
East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

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Miami, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -
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A November to Remember?

Posted: 09:45 PM 01 November 2022 | | Add Comment

There is strong model support for system development this November, particularly including locations close to land, and so the state of the Atlantic more than warrants a new main page post to raise awareness that the season is not over and that this odd year may be going into some hurricane overtime.

In the near term and closest to landfall, a strong tropical storm, Lisa, is expected to become a potent hurricane overnight tonight, Tuesday, and possibly even Major prior to landfall along Belize/Yucatan sometime Wednesday night/early Thursday. Multiple recon missions are regularly flying the cyclone now, feeding critical information into the models and helping improve forecasts. Actions to protect life and property should begin regardless of Major or not, as Lisa is likely to be a dangerous cyclone at landfall either way.

Farther out at sea, Tropical Storm Martin is expected to become a hurricane as well, likely sometime tomorrow, and then a powerful Post-Tropical Hurricane-Force Cyclone on approach to Greenland.

We are also monitoring yet another feature with anomalously impressive late-season model support for development behind Lisa, around the Greater Antilles, and this may be of concern to Florida later on, but for now, remains "lounge" type speculation. Definitely an area to watch however, and we will have a Forecast Lounge up right away should something here start to form.


Lisa Event Related Links


float15latest.gif stormplotthumb_15.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=15 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Lisa
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Lisa


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Lisa (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Lisa (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Lisa

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Lisa
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Lisa -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



Martin Event Related Links


float16latest.gif stormplotthumb_16.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=16 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Martin
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Martin


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Martin (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Martin (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Martin

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Martin
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Martin -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View

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Active Second Half Continues

Posted: 02:43 PM 07 October 2022 | | Add Comment

1:00AM EDT Update 25 October 2022 Update
Today we are watching several low probability areas in the Atlantic, and one "high" probability system, 94L. Invest 94L has been recently and presently affecting Bermuda and its nearby waters as an almost-classifiable depression or very weak storm. Battling modest shear and dry air, it does not have very good odds of getting much stronger.

It is noteworthy that things are percolating this late in the season.

2:00PM EDT Update 24 October 2022 Update
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a formerly non-tropical but well-defined low is increasing, and it appears a tropical storm may be forming with the system, Invest 94L, presently located about 150m east-southeast of Bermuda. Interests in and around Bermuda may want to pay close attention as Watches and Warnings may be issued at any time if current trends continue.

9:00PM CDT Update 11 October 2022 Update
Recon found the disturbance in the southwestern GOM sufficiently organized, and with maximum sustained winds of 40MPH, NHC advisories on Tropical Storm Karl began this afternoon.

9:00AM CDT Update 11 October 2022 Update
It appears that a tropical cyclone is forming in the southwestern GOM with what has now been designated Invest 93L, and we have started a Lounge on this system Karl Forecast Lounge

3:00AM CDT Update 11 October 2022 Update


A trof of low pressure, largely associated with remnants of Hurricane Julia, is presently situated across the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and drapes across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific side.

This elongated area of low pressure is focusing disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Gulf, and development into a Tropical Depression or named storm is possible this week. NHC presently gives this disturbance 40% odds of becoming a TC within the next few days, and recon is tentatively scheduled to investigate it this afternoon.

Original entry
Generally marginally favorable to favorable conditions for development and strengthening remain across sections of the Atlantic basin thus far in October, with two tropical cyclones forming in the past few days. One, now impacting land and threatening to become a hurricane and possibly even go under Rapid Intensirffication, Julia, is likely to remain a threat to Central America, but there is a non-zero chance of it recurving into or redeveloping in the SW Gulf later, and will be watched closely. Otherwise, CONUS stays TC-Free for the foreseeable future.


Lisa Event Related Links


float15latest.gif stormplotthumb_15.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=15 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Lisa
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Lisa


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Lisa (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Lisa (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Lisa

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Lisa
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Lisa -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



Invest 96L Event Related Links


float16latest.gif stormplotthumb_16.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=16 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 96L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 96L


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 96L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 96L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 96L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 96L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 96L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



Karl Event Related Links


float14latest.gif stormplotthumb_14.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=14 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Karl
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Karl


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Karl (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Karl (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Karl

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Karl
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Karl -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



Julia Event Related Links


float13latest.gif stormplotthumb_13.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=13 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Julia
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Julia


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Julia (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Julia (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Julia

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Julia
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Julia -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View

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Ian en route to a Second CONUS Landfall and Favorable Development Conditions Continue

Posted: 12:56 AM 30 September 2022 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 01:38 AM 30-Sep EDT

Now a hybrid Hurricane Ian, the cyclone is restrengthening over the very warm waters off the southeast coast along the Gulf Stream, and is now back up to 85 MPH at the time of this post, and still strengthening. Storms like Ian tend to over-perform many models and indeed official forecasts, so residents in Ian's path should prepare for a full Category higher than forecast. That is also always a good thing to do, no matter the storm.

Ian or its remnants may make landfall, move inland, and then reemerge over the the Gulf Stream in a few days, but hopefully by that time up and away. For good.

Elsewhere, conditions across the Atlantic continue generally favorable for additional development. The "it only takes one" doesn't also necessarily mean, "and done."

For in-depth model analysis and a place for more speculative discussions, join us in the Ian Forecast Lounge


Ian Event Related Links


float9latest.gif stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=9 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Ian
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Ian


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Ian (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Ian (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Ian

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Ian
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Ian -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


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