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Heading Toward the End of September

Posted: 07:57 AM 19 September 2023 | 2 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 06:13 PM 22-Sep EDT

7AM EDT Update 26 September 2023
This morning the gulf area that was being tracked yesterday has dissipated, and is no longer being tracked. Phillipe is gradually weakening as it moves into an area of strong vertical shear, and should disspate. Of note this will allow the enegery associated with Phillipe's remnants to shift much further west, however conditions at the moment are not conductive for development.


91L which will likely become Rina is expected to overtake from Phillipe and most likely turn out to sea, however it may get close enough to the Caribbean islands that they should watch. This area currently has a 90% chance to develop, 60% chance in the next 48 hours.

Beyond this week into October the idea will likely be watching for anything developing closer to land as the mix of fronts and remnant lows will provide an opportunity for something to form closer to land, however what and how much would be up in the air. Meaning rain likely for a lot, but development chances won't be known until next week.

7AM EDT Update 25 September 2023
Right now the the tropics there's activity with Phillipe, but nothing else really imminent. The area in the Gulf has a 10% chance to develop, and probably won't as shear conditions right now in the area its at is just a bit too hostile for development. The area east of Phillipe (91L) has an 805 chance to develop over the next 7 days, but both Phillipe and the east Atlantic system very likely will stay out to sea and away from the Caribbean Islands and Bermuda. So for at least the next week, there shouldn't be anything threatening. The pattern this year has kept anything developing east of the Islands mostly away from land, so the focus beyond next week is for anything that develops closer to land.

3PM EDT Update 22 September 2023
Tropical Storm Ophelia has formed from PTC16.

11AM EDT Update 21 September 2023
Tropical Storm Warnings up for NC/VA/Maryland for Potential Tropical Cyclone 16. This will develop quickly. PTC#16 Forms. Tropical Warning up Cape Fear, NC, to Fenwick Island, DE Storm Surge Watches up from Surf City, North Carolina to Chincoteague, VA, and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point, including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

Original Update
Hurricane Nigel continues its long turn in the Central Atlantic and should be moving back to the northeast by tomorrow evening.

The area in the East Atlantic has a 70% chance to develop, and it too is likely to remain away from land areas.

An area off Florida may form this weekend and drift northward, possibly subtropical, from a stalled front. If anything does develop it could happen quickly once going (but likely won't have long enough to get to hurricane strength), so those in the coastal Carolinas and Southeast Virginia should monitor this, especially toward the end of the week.

The current pattern in the main development region is for things to recurve, so the closer to home systems are the one to pay attention to. Either near the US or the Caribbean.


Nigel Event Related Links


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[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2023&storm=15 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Nigel
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Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Nigel


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Nigel (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
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Clark Evans Track Plot of Nigel

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Nigel
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Nigel -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



Ophelia Event Related Links


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[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2023&storm=16 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Ophelia
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Ophelia


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Ophelia (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Ophelia (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Ophelia

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Ophelia
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Ophelia -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



Philippe Event Related Links


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[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2023&storm=17 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Philippe
GOES Floater
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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Philippe (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
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Clark Evans Track Plot of Philippe

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Philippe
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Philippe -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



Invest 91L Event Related Links


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[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2023&storm=18 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 91L
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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 91L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 91L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 91L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 91L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 91L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Eastern NC/OBX/Hampton Roads Media:

North Carolina Power Outage Map

North Carolina Flood Inundation and Mapping Network

Star News Online (Wilmington)

Outer Banks Sentinel

Hampton Roads Pilot

WWAY TV 3 Wilmington, NC (ABC)

WECT TV 6 Wilmington, NC (NBC)

Fox Wilmington (FOX)

WILM TV 10 Wilmington, NC (CBS)

WITN 7 - Eastern North Carolina TV (NBC)

WCTI 12 - Eastern North Carolina (ABC)

WNCT TV 9 - Eastern North Carolina (CBS)

Wavy 10 (NBC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA TV

WTKR 3 (CBS) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA

WVEC 13 (ABC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA
Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

Power Outage Maps: South Carolina Power Outage Map North Carolina Power Outage Map Virginia Power Outage Map

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Heading into Peak With Eyes Wide Open

Posted: 11:28 PM 04 September 2023 | 6 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 11:36 PM 12-Sep EDT

Update 7:30AM EDT 15 September 2023 Update
Lee, now a large category 1 hurricane has passed by Bermuda. It's large windfield gave Bermuda some ( 11,746) power outages and rather strong tropical storm force winds as it passed. There are still winds being reported there as it heads north. The hurricane watch has shrank to be less of Maine as the track has honed in on the Bay of Fundy, Western Nova Scotia and Coastal New Brunswick in Canada. The large windfield will likely drive some water up along the coasts,

Margot still meandering is the open atlantic and Invest 97L is likely to form today in the Atlantic with a 90% chance to develop, but is expected to stay out to sea.

Update 7:30AM EDT 13 September 2023 Update
Hurricane Lee likely has reached its peak intensity, however the size has grown (larger than the NHC's wind probability graphic allows, which they call out in the discussion). Tropical Storm Warnings are up for Bermuda, and it's likely they will see them tomorrow through Friday. By Friday night, some areas of the Northeastern US will likely see the winds, and by Saturday the closest approach to the Cape Cod is expected to happen midday which corresponds with higher tides for MA/NH and parts of Maine. Surge will likely be an issue in much of the area (New England and Canada) in some places where the winds are onshore (southern part of Cape Cod Bay) coast and some of the rivers along coastal New Hampshire/Maine. The system itself will be weakening as it gets roughly north of New Jersey's latitude due to much colder waters, but still pack a punch. Watches for part of the Northeast and Canada may come later today or tomorrow.

Elsewhere the 80% area (97/98L) has an 80% chance to develop with plenty of ocean ahead to hopefully stay out to sea with.


Update 7:30AM EDT 12 September 2023 Update
Hurricane Lee has grown in size since yesterday and has a much larger eye and windfield. Meaning intensity has remained roughly the same with 115mph winds but the area of strong winds has increased.

Bermuda could see watches later today, and those in New England, coastal New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia are in the cone. The rest of the east coast will see dangerous surf along the beaches.

New England and Atlantic Canada should watch Lee closely, Maine or Nova Scota is the most likely landfall area, but the large size of Lee will have effects for a much larger area, all those in the cone (including Cape Cod and coastal New Hampshire) and near it should pay close attention to Lee as the turn north is forecast to happen sometime tomorrow, with affects in the Northeast starting Friday night.

Update 7:30PM EDT 11 September 2023 Update
Hurricane Lee is back to Major Hurricane Strength, and the turn is forecast for Wednesday followed by a pass by west of Bermuda. Beyond this parts of New England and Atlantic Canada are entering the cone. Those in New England and New Brunswick along the coast, and Nova Scotia should watch the progress of lee closely. The models suggest a slight bump west due to ridging as it nears Maine or Nova Scotia that could bring strong winds and storm surge to parts of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine, as well as Nova Scotia and the Bay of Fundy.

The east coast of the US and Islands near Lee will likely see rough surf and rip currents even though Lee is well east most of the week.

Tropical Storm Watches may go up for Bermuda tomorrow.

Update 8:30AM EDT 10 September 2023 Update
Lee weakened yesterday back to a category 2 hurricane, but is forecast to regain major strength over the next few days. Expected turn is still around Wednesday approximately around 68 West longitude. Timing of the turn will impact the eventual track as well as the poiitions of Margot and 97L for both Bermuda and the northeast and Canada. The spread is still fairly wide so the potential track space is effectively still the North Carolina Outer Banks all the way north and east to Out to Sea, with the most likely being around Nova Scotia in Canada. So it's important to watch all along there, but just monitoring.

Update 9:30PM EDT 9 September 2023 Update
Shear and an apparent Eyewall Replacement Cycle have conspired to hinder Lee's attempts to re-intensify so far this weekend and this may go on for yet a little bit longer than models keep, erroneously, forecasting. However, at some point this shear will still likely start to lessen, possibly as soon as later overnight tonight, and the ERC should complete. After that time, Rapid Intensification will again become possible, if not likely, and Lee could once again become a strong Category 4 or 5 hurricane.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Margot is spinning fish, but the Azores might want to keep watch. To Margot's southwest, we now have yet another Cabo Verde tropical low way out in the Tropical Atlantic that already looks to be on the cusp, Invest 97L, and yet another wave right behind it.

It is not yet clear which of these two has the better chance of being named, although 97L does have the running start and already a closed or nearly closed circulation. Despite low opening NHC odds for classification, models are already warming up to 97L, and with the record of disturbances developing recently, we're only making plans for Nigel.

Update 7:30AM EDT 9 September 2023 Update
Lee weakened a bit yesterday but remains a major hurricane and is showing signs of gradual restrengthening this morning. Parts of the leeward islands of the Caribbean's north shores are being affected very strong rip currents, and they will spread west over the next few days. The turn north is now part of the official forecast, as it looks to stay safely away from the Bahamas and most of the US East coast. High surf is likely the only impact that may start to show up Monday or so.

Those in Bermuda, however need to watch Lee closely as it may get close enough for some stronger affects, even if not the worst part of the storm. Beyond this it's still soon to say, but the most likely areas to potentially be impacted is Atlantic Canada, and there's a chance the storm may stay entirely out to sea. If it does make it up to Canada it will be much weaker at this time. Although there's still a possibility of New England impacts, chances for that are becoming less likely. As always, with hurricanes this far out, continue to monitor for changes anywhere along the east coast as beyond 5 days or so things are much more subject to change.

Update 10:15AM EDT 8 September 2023 Update
Recon continues to find shear banging on Lee from the southwest, with pressures rising considerably and maximum sustained winds coming down. Should this trend continue there may be some unexpected influence to track, but overall, not yet nearly weak enough to suggest an appreciably more westward course.

18z and 0z model runs tonight should be taking these findings from recon into consideration.

Update 7:30AM EDT 8 September 2023 Update
Lee has held itself overnight and fought a bit of shear, but remains a category 5 hurricane this morning. The storm is forecast to move well north of the Caribbean, but high surf impacts to the north side of the islands will likely start to show up tonight. Beyond this, longer range models show a gradual slowdown in forward speed and a turn to the north well east of the Bahamas and Southeast US.

Those in Bermuda will want to watch closely, and the Mid Atlantic, New England, and especially Atlantic Canada will also want to watch later on. However high surf, beach erosion, and rip currents are likely to start showing up either late this weekend or early to mid next week along parts of the Bahamas and US coasts.

With Margot also entering the central Atlantic there is very high uncertainty in the track and large swings in the models run to run beyond 7 days or so, so monitoring is recommended.

Update 11PM EDT 7 September 2023 Update
Lee has continued to undergo Rapid Intensification at a breakneck pace tonight and is now a Category Five hurricane. The speed at which it accomplished this is incredibly rare for the Main Development Region.

The updated NHC forecast now explicitly calls for Lee to reach 180 MPH. According to Dr. Klotzbach, just seven Atlantic hurricanes in the satellite era (more reliable record keeping) have achieved this. They are Allen (1980), Gilbert (1988), Mitch (1998), Rita (2005), Wilma (2005), Irma (2017) and Dorian (2019).

NHC even went one further to add in their 11PM discussion
Quote:

Amazingly, the 1800 UTC HAFS-A and -B runs show a peak intensity between 170-180 kt, but that's getting into rarefied air. The NHC forecast will be adjusted accordingly if those solutions begin looking like a more distinct possibility.




Update 11AM EDT 7 September 2023 Update
Lee is now a category 2 hurricane and forecast to become a category 5 hurricane, but stay north of the Caribbean islands as it does so. Beyond this it is generally expected to make a turn north and away from the Bahamas and Southeast US, but it is still worth watching north of there particularly for Bermuda and the outer banks and north particularly for the high swells and waves this system will likely generate

Recon will be out in Lee later today.

Tropical Depression Fourteen also formed in the east Atlantic, and is expected to become a hurricane, next name is Margot. Likely to stay far away from land areas, but the Azores may want to monitor it.

Update 7AM EDT 6 September 2023 Update
Tropical Storm Lee is well on its way to hurricane strength this morning, and likely to become a hurricane later today. It's current forecast track keeps it north of the Caribbean islands, but as it gets closer to this general area it is expected to become a very intense major hurricane. Even though the forecast has no direct landfall impacts, the size and strength of the storm will make north facing shores have extremely rough surf and waves, and if it stays on the left side of the cone the islands still could see more impact. Once beyond the Caribbean the most likely track keeps it away from the Southeastern US, however confidence in models beyond 5 days is fairly low. Those along the East Coast (including Canada) , Bahamas and Bermuda will want to monitor the progression of Lee. Because large swells, rough surf and rip currents are likely even if it stays east down the road.

Another area east of lee has a 70% to develop, but is likely to stay out to sea.

Update 5PM EDT 5 September 2023
THIRTEEN has continued to organize and has become Tropical Storm Lee. Interests in the Lesser Antilles may want to begin paying close attention to NHC forecasts and taking some initial preparations for the impacts of a nearby Major Hurricane, as Lee could well be a 3, 4, or even 5 at that time.

From NHC
Quote:

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane by this weekend and
could bring impacts to the Leeward Islands by that time. While it
is too soon to determine the location and magnitude of these
possible impacts, interests in this area should monitor the
progress of Lee and further updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 13.2N 41.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 13.7N 43.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 14.4N 46.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 15.2N 48.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 16.2N 51.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 17.2N 53.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 18.3N 56.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 20.4N 60.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 22.2N 64.3W 125 KT 145 MPH




And honestly, these forecast windspeeds could be conservative.


Update 10:15AM EDT 5 September 2023
NHC is initiating advisories on THIRTEEN in the Tropical Atlantic (95L).

TD 13 should be named soon as well. The next name on the list is Lee.

Original update

Base image credit: Zoom Earth

2023 has been anything but a usual El Niño, with both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins doing very impressive things.

As of this update, the Atlantic basin stands at 12 Storms, 3 Hurricanes and 2 Majors. It's not even September 10th and the basin has nearly reached NOAA's preseason forecast of 12-17 Storms, 5-9 Hurricanes and 1-4 Majors. The East Pac has reached 9 Storms, 6 Hurricanes and 4 Majors, getting close to NOAA's preseason outlook for its entire season of 14-20 Storms, 7-11 Hurricanes and 4-8 Majors.

Especially impressive were Hurricane Hilary in the East Pac, making meteorological history by becoming the first Tropical Storm landfall along Southern California since 1939, and Hurricane Idalia in the Atlantic, which was the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the Big Bend region since the Cedar Key Hurricane of 1896.

These two names are behind us now, but the 2023 seasons are not. SSTs in both the Atlantic and East Pac are running well above average, with tropical cyclone supportive warmth extending well beyond what prior to the past few decades might be considered "in the basin," and as of tonight there are three areas we are watching in the Atlantic: One in the east-central Tropical Atlantic Main Development Region: 95L. One in the far eastern Atlantic (likely to be assigned 96L this week), and believe it or not, the post-tropical low pressure of Hurricane Franklin is making a run at regeneration west of Portugal and Spain while a ferociously wet-weather-producing hybrid cyclone and potential future Medicane spins up in the Mediterranean Sea, south-southwest of Greece.

Of most interest and concern to those of us left of the 55th meridian west, is the soon-to-be-Lee that is currently Invest 95L.

Making no bones about it, Invest 95L, the exceptionally well-structured tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic, is likely to become a Major Hurricane within the next seven days, and the models are on to this. They've got Lee's number, and collectively most of them say it is somewhere from 3 and 5, even before the disturbance has been given his name!

This incipient cyclone has all the makings of a social media freakout storm long before we all really know where it is going. That said, there are some outlier runs that all but explicitly call for a southeast to east coast impact, and perhaps more importantly, there are also legit meteorological reasons why the models largely now forecasting recurvature might be missing a few things.

Fortunately, we have lots of time to watch and learn a lot about this one, and should. Recon will likely begin flying in later this week and the information they collect will be invaluable.

TD 13/Lee model talk:
Lee Lounge


Storm Daniel Updates:
Mediterranean Storm Daniel


97L Model talk:
97L Lounge



Lee Event Related Links


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2023&storm=13 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Lee
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Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Lee


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Lee (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Lee (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Lee

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Lee
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Lee -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Margot Event Related Links


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[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2023&storm=14 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Margot
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Margot


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Margot (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Margot (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Margot

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Margot
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Margot -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Nigel Event Related Links


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[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2023&storm=15 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Nigel
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Nigel


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Nigel (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Nigel (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Nigel

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Nigel
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Nigel -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Full Caribbean Radar Composite

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR NWS Page

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Bermuda Newspapers/Media:

BerNews

Royal Gazette (Bermuda)

Bermuda Sun

Hott 107.5 Bermuda Radio

Storm Carib Bermuda Reports

Bermuda Weather Service

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Idalia Back over Water and Jose Forms

Posted: 05:21 AM 31 August 2023 | | Add Comment

Update 3:15PM EDT 31 August 2023 Update



The Tropical Atlantic remains very active in what has been a stunningly busy season for an El Niño summer. Even before Idalia moved back out over water, T.D. 11 went on to become Tropical Storm Jose, and now the remnants of Tropical Storm Gert have reorganized (Old T.D. 6), Invest 94L in the far eastern Tropical Atlantic is on the cusp of advisories, and a couple stout waves in Africa are ready to move out over water. Fortunately, none of these pose any immediate threat to the CONUS, or threat at all.
-Ciel


Original Update
Idalia moved quickly and is now back over water in the Atlantic after moving through Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina and effecting parts of Southeastern North Carolina after making landfall as a weakening category 3 hurricane. Idalia made it to Cat 4 before landfall and dry air and an eyewall replacement cycle luckily pulled the some of the worst winds away from the surface right before landfall, but not before bringing a large amount of surge to the Florida West coast and Big Bend and much of the wind still causing plenty of downed trees and other damage. Many Power outages happened along the path, but Cedar Key's power was restored overnight.

Idalia may impact Bermuda Sunday Afternoon, so folks there need to watch for it, however it is likely to remain a Tropical Storm as it does so.

Tropical Storm Jose has formed in eastern Atlantic and is expected to be short lived. Franklin is now northeast of Bermuda and moving away.

Invest 94L is 70% likely to form in the eastern Atlantic but stay out to sea.


Idalia Event Related Links


float10latest.gif stormplotthumb_10.gif

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[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2023&storm=10 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Idalia
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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Idalia (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
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Clark Evans Track Plot of Idalia

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Idalia
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Idalia -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



Katia Event Related Links


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[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2023&storm=12 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Katia
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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Katia (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Katia (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Katia

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Katia
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Katia -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



Invest 95L Event Related Links


float13latest.gif stormplotthumb_13.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2023&storm=13 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 95L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 95L


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 95L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 95L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 95L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 95L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 95L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Bermuda Newspapers/Media:

BerNews

Royal Gazette (Bermuda)

Bermuda Sun

Hott 107.5 Bermuda Radio

Storm Carib Bermuda Reports

Bermuda Weather Service

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Major Update: Idalia & Franklin

Posted: 05:29 AM 28 August 2023 | 6 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 11:25 PM 29-Aug EDT

1:15PM EDT 30 August 2023 Update
A fortuitously timed Eyewall Replacement Cycle began as Idalia made landfall, weakening the hurricane, and thus lowering the maximum sustained winds. Nonetheless, severe impacts were and still are widely felt.

As of this update, Idalia continues pushing inland, analyzed by NHC as a Cat 1. The center is clearly located east of Valdosta, GA.

NHC is now ending hourly advisories. The next intermediate advisory will be issued at 2:00 PM EDT.

9:00PM EDT 29 August 2023 Update
Idalia is continuing to rapidly intensify. Interests along the west and northwest Florida coast, especially those in Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning areas should now be rushing any last minute preps to protect life and property to completion. Impacts will also be felt well inland. Power outages may last days or even weeks. Hazards such as felled and falilng trees, roof and even building failures, rapidly rising water, could soon make passage to safety difficult and potentially deadly in your area.


1:30PM EDT 29 August 2023 Update


This wide view of the Tropical Atlantic really highlights how much larger Hurricane Idalia has become. While the cyclone has a well-defined and tight inner core with an increasingly healthy eyewall, the reach of Idalia's winds and heavy rains extends out up to hundreds of miles from the center. This not only will prolong the wind and rain over many locations, but also dramatically increase the fetch of storm surge. Deadly storm surge.

This image is also a reminder that the entire basin is still favorable for development, with two more Tropical Cyclones being tracked (Franklin and T.D. 11), as well as two other areas of interest.


Original Update


Overnight, Hurricane Franklin became the first Major Hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and as of the 4AM CT NHC Advisory, Hurricane Idalia is now officially forecast to become a Major Hurricane as well.

The time for Floridians to prepare for potentially life-threatening storm surge, wind and rain is today. By Tuesday conditions (and not just the weather) may start to become far too difficult for many.

Models are ingesting flight after flight of recon data now, and this should assist forecasters. We go into them in greater detail in the Idalia Forecast Lounge , which is also a good place to discuss pure informed speculation and best guesses as to Idalia's future.

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Tropical Storm Idalia Local Statement Advisory Number 7
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL AL102023
515 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 /415 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023/

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia
Quote:


...IDALIA NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...
...POTENTIAL IMPACTS...
-----------------

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible devastating impacts across Taylor and Dixie Counties. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded from considerable floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
- Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted onshore and stranded.

Also, prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant to extensive impacts across Wakulla and Jefferson Counties.

Also, prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts across Franklin and Gulf Counties.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is anticipated.

* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible devastating impacts across coastal Taylor and Dixie Counties. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.

Also, prepare for life-threatening wind having possible limited to extensive impacts across the remainder of the Florida Big Bend.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts in the far eastern Big Bend and Suwannee Valley. Potential impacts include:
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited to significant impacts across southeast Alabama, southwest and south central Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle and western Big Bend.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a dangerous tornado event having possible significant impacts across the southeast Big Bend. Potential impacts include:
- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across the eastern and coastal Big Bend and Lowndes and Lanier Counties in Georgia.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind, falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move, relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle ahead of time.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your home or business.




SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* Dry Tortugas Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Englewood to Chokoloskee Florida
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge



Idalia Event Related Links


float10latest.gif stormplotthumb_10.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2023&storm=10 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Idalia
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Idalia


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Idalia (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Idalia (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Idalia

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Idalia
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Idalia -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



Franklin Event Related Links


float8latest.gif stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2023&storm=8 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Franklin
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Franklin


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Franklin (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Franklin (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Franklin

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Franklin
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Franklin -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



Tropical Depression Eleven Event Related Links


float11latest.gif stormplotthumb_11.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2023&storm=11 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of TD#11
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD#11


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#11 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#11 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#11

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#11
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#11 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



Tampa Area Media:

Bay News 9

WFLA News 8 (NBC)

Bay Action News (ABC)

WTSP Channel 10 (CBS)

My Fox Tampa Bay

WWSB ABC 7 Sarasota

Tampa Bay Times

Tampa Bay Online

Sarasota Herald Tribune

970 WFLA Tampa News/Talk Radio
Florida Panhandle Media/Links

WJHG TV 7 (NBC) Panama City Beach, FL

WMBB TV 13 (ABC) Panama City Beach, FL / My Panhandle

WCTV 6 (CBS) Tallahassee, FL

WTXL 27 (ABC) Tallahassee, FL

WTWC-DT2 49 (Fox) Tallahassee, FL

WTWC 40 (NBC) Tallahassee, FL

WEAR TV 3 (ABC) Pensacola, FL


Newspapers Panama City Beach News Herald

Tallahassee Democrat


Radio (some)

News Talk 94.5 WFLA Panama City Beach

]https://wflafm.iheart.com/ 100.7 WFLA News Radio Tallahassee, FL]

Power Outage

Florida Power Outage Map

Alabama Power Outage Map
Southwest Florida (Naples/Ft.Myers) Area Media:

WINK News 11 Fort Myers CBS

WBBH NBC 2 Fort Myers NBC

ABC 7 Naples ABC

FOX 4 Florida Cape Coral FOX

WFSX Fox 92.5 News Radio

WCCF News Radio 1580 Port Charlotte

News Press

Naples Daily News
Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

Bermuda Newspapers/Media:

BerNews

Royal Gazette (Bermuda)

Bermuda Sun

Hott 107.5 Bermuda Radio

Storm Carib Bermuda Reports

Bermuda Weather Service

Article Icon

Idalia and Franklin

Posted: 04:09 AM 26 August 2023 | 11 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 12:15 AM 28-Aug EDT

11PM EDT 27 August 2023 Update
Idalia appears to be organizing at a breakneck pace tonight for what was, wind-wise at least, a "low end" tropical storm, and could very well be found to have become a hurricane by morning.

Floridians need to be aware that this cyclone has the potential to become one of those rare high-end hurricanes capable of producing serious devastation and loss of life, and take the necessary steps to protect life and property within the next day, as once conditions begin deteriorating, such precautions can be impossibly challenging to take.

Models are ingesting flight after flight of recon data now, and this should assist forecasters. We go into them in greater detail in the Idalia Forecast Lounge , which is also a good place to discuss pure informed speculation and best guesses as to Idalia's future.


5PM EDT 27 August 2023 Update
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida
from Englewood to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida
from Chokoloskee to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Gulf coast of
Florida south of Englewood to Chokoloskee, and for the Dry Tortugas.

11:20AM EDT 27 August 2023 Update
TD#10 is Now Tropical Storm Idalia.

Update written immediately before special update to Idalia:


Landfall is forecast Wednesday somewhere along the Florida west coast as a Category 1 hurricane, those at and to the right of the landfall point are most likely to see the impacts, impacts may be felt well east of the cone. Note uncertainty for track and intensity is high, so further adjustments to the track and intensity in the future may occur. TD#10 may become Tropical Storm Idalia at any time later today. Recon aircraft is out there this morning to help improve the forecasts, but those along the West coast of Florida should use today to prepare as there's a sales tax holiday for hurricane supplies going on this week.

Especially for this angle of approach (Charley and Ian are the most recent examples, but this could go left or right), do not base on the track, even if the forecast track occurs exactly as is the Tampa area will still see impacts of some surge along the coast and heavy rainfall, so please do not focus on the exact forecast track, since strong winds, heavy rains and dangerous storm surges extend well away from the center. Since TD#10 is meandering this morning near Cozumel there's an extra bit of uncertainty, Movement away from the Yucatan Peninsula isn't expected until tomorrow.

Bermuda should also watch Franklin in case the threat moves closer.


7:30AM EDT 27 August 2023 Update
Idalia-to-be (TD TEN) and Hurricane Franklin are being aggressively flown by recon today, and this invaluable data will be fed into the models, forecast models which have been especially struggling a bit with TEN, and forecasters too.

By the end of the day we should be able to have greater confidence in the forecasts, but this is not to say that impacts won't be felt. There is already high confidence that a then-hurricane Idalia will make landfall somewhere along the west coast of Florida, and that a then-Major Hurricane Franklin will be within striking distance of Bermuda.

4:30PM EDT 26 August 2023 Update
NHC Advisories are being issued TD TEN, Idalia-to-be

1:30PM EDT 26 August 2023 Update
For all practical intents and purposes, if not literally, Invest 93L is now a tropical cyclone just off the northeastern coast of the Yucatan. Unfortunately, we have had neither recon nor satellite wind data available to confirm this. It would be best to treat 93L as a compact tropical depression or storm and begin taking precautions for a landfalling northeastern Gulf of Mexico TC, and potentially a very strong one.

Governor Desantis has declared a precautionary State of Emergency for 33 Florida counties. The counties included are: Alachua, Bay, Calhoun, Charlotte, Citrus, Columbia, DeSoto, Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hardee, Hernando, Hillsborough, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lee, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Sarasota, Sumter, Suwannee, Taylor, and Wakulla.

Original Update


Left: Invest 93L (Likely Idalia-to-be) and Right: Franklin


INVEST 93L
The disturbance in the northwestern Yucatan continues to organize and as of this update is getting much more of the "look and feel" of a bona fide tropical cyclone. NHC development odds as of 2:00AM ET are up to 60%/90%, possibly conservative, and Watches and Warnings for a verified or Potential Tropical Cyclone could be issued at any time this weekend.

Conditions for further development and intensification of both Invest 93L (almost certainly Idalia-to-be) and Tropical Storm Franklin are favorable to very favorable. Sea surface temperatures are exceptionally supportive, shear is modest to light, the air moist, and the season is about peak.

The next name on the list is Idalia (Pronounced ee-DAL-ya).

The Lounge on 93L is up and regularly updating: Idalia Forecast Lounge


Tropical Storm Franklin
Franklin recently jumped a bit northeastward into deeper convection and thus right of forecast position. With this, NHC has updated the cone a little to the east of the last advisory, and on this track Franklin will likely sideswipe Bermuda from the west sometime between Sunday night and Monday (timing differences between models).


Elsewhere, we continue to monitor a few other areas in the central to eastern Tropical Atlantic, most of which would be incline to head poleward.



Idalia Event Related Links


float10latest.gif stormplotthumb_10.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2023&storm=10 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Idalia
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Idalia


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Idalia (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Idalia (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Idalia

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Idalia
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Idalia -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



Franklin Event Related Links


float8latest.gif stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2023&storm=8 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Franklin
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Franklin


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Franklin (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Franklin (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Franklin

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Franklin
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Franklin -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



Gert Event Related Links


float6latest.gif stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2023&storm=6 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Gert
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Gert


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Gert (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Gert (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Gert

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Gert
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Gert -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



Invest 92L Event Related Links


float11latest.gif stormplotthumb_11.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2023&storm=11 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 92L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 92L


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 92L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 92L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 92L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 92L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 92L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Tampa Area Media:

Bay News 9

WFLA News 8 (NBC)

Bay Action News (ABC)

WTSP Channel 10 (CBS)

My Fox Tampa Bay

WWSB ABC 7 Sarasota

Tampa Bay Times

Tampa Bay Online

Sarasota Herald Tribune

970 WFLA Tampa News/Talk Radio
Florida Panhandle Media/Links

WJHG TV 7 (NBC) Panama City Beach, FL

WMBB TV 13 (ABC) Panama City Beach, FL / My Panhandle

WCTV 6 (CBS) Tallahassee, FL

WTXL 27 (ABC) Tallahassee, FL

WTWC-DT2 49 (Fox) Tallahassee, FL

WTWC 40 (NBC) Tallahassee, FL

WEAR TV 3 (ABC) Pensacola, FL


Newspapers Panama City Beach News Herald

Tallahassee Democrat


Radio (some)

News Talk 94.5 WFLA Panama City Beach

]https://wflafm.iheart.com/ 100.7 WFLA News Radio Tallahassee, FL]

Power Outage

Florida Power Outage Map

Alabama Power Outage Map
Southwest Florida (Naples/Ft.Myers) Area Media:

WINK News 11 Fort Myers CBS

WBBH NBC 2 Fort Myers NBC

ABC 7 Naples ABC

FOX 4 Florida Cape Coral FOX

WFSX Fox 92.5 News Radio

WCCF News Radio 1580 Port Charlotte

News Press

Naples Daily News
Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

Bermuda Newspapers/Media:

BerNews

Royal Gazette (Bermuda)

Bermuda Sun

Hott 107.5 Bermuda Radio

Storm Carib Bermuda Reports

Bermuda Weather Service

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