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CFHC Talkback For News Story #70: Newest Talkback: 04:55 AM 08-24 EDT

Debby Weakens Temporarily
11:08 AM EDT - 23 August 2000

5PM Update:

The NHC lowered windspeed to 50MPH, but Debby is still not looking good at all. If it goes into Cuba I doubt it can survive. The other choices are going north or south of Cuba, and that's about a 50/50 shot for either. Debby did the unexpected, will the unexpected happen again?

1PM Update:

Mandatory Evacuation Ordered for all non-Florida Keys residents in the Florida Keys effective at Noon Today

Debby is encountering more sheer and land effects, and isn't looking as good as it did before. The center of cirulation is on the west side of the convection, so it is having trouble again. Debby looks like it won't restrengthen until tomorrow. This is an unexpected twist in the story of Debby (or at least, I didn't expect this) and the storm may wind up repositioning itself to survive, if it survives. Thanks Steve H. & Brian for bringing this to our attention.

Alberto has become Extratropical as well and is no longer being tracked.

Original Update:

Due to some interaction with Hispaniola and a bit of shear Debby went down to Tropical Storm this morning. A strong tropical storm. It should rebound later tonight and tomorrow when it moves away from Hispaniola and strengthen. The southern inflow is being affected by the mountains there.

The current NHC forecast track takes it up South Florida (over Key Largo) over Florida toward the core of the state to the western side with a hint of a northerly turn. This could be shifted left or right more later... So the Keys must take it seriously too.

There are some indications that Debby may slow forward motion too, so it looks Friday Night- Saturday timeframe for landfall at the moment.

Several Models put it into the Gulf, including the MRF, which means folks in the panhandle, Alabama, etc. will want to watch it too.

Still a lot of speculation. It still could go into the Gulf, but the South Florida scenario is still more likely. (Getting to be 50/50 chance wise). Still a lot up in the air.

We are tentively scheduling a chat at 7PM tonight lasting for as long as we feel the need. Jim Williams at Hurricane City will be doing another live broadcast at 8PM.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Debby (Good Forecast Track Graphic)

Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Weathervine Storm Intercept Team's Audio and Video broadcasts
Live Webcam image from Florida Emergency Management's Emergency Operations Center
Florida Emergency Management Activation Page / Situation Updates
Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #2 - #22 (of 64 total)

50/50 (#2)
Posted by: Steve h.
Posted On 11:15AM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Mike C., do you still foresee a nw turn at some point ? I don't see strong evidence for that, but I haven't looked at data about the trough that is supposed to dig southward to ALA/GA. However if it slows and waits then reacts to the trough later, the east FL coast could see her miami northward. ANy thoughts on this? Is the FL east coast out of the woods?

Core (#3)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 11:16AM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)

The curve suggests it may be going a bit more to the north at that point. Better wording would be toward instead of into. I will change this.

East Florida coast (#4)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 11:18AM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)

Is not out of the woods. The track is probably going to be wrong to the left or to the right. If it's to the right it would be a problem for the east coast of Florida.

Don't assume it won't affect you until it is well north of your lattitude.

East v. West (#5)
Posted by: Brian Location: Hollywood, Florida
Posted On 11:40AM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QSWNURNRPPNQTX*)

It seems to me that the "dirty" side of the Storm, the NE quadrant, would strike S.E. Fla. if Debby moves up the W. coast of Fl. But this all is still up in the air. If the storm enter between Marathon and Homestead (poor Homestead) then N. Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach would get the worst of the storm. If it moves in around Broward, then Palm Beach up through Vero stand to be the amongst the most impacted areas. We'll see.

Great grammar (#6)
Posted by: Brian Location: Hollywood, Florida
Posted On 11:42AM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QSWNURNRPPNQTX*)

enter - enters the amongst the = amongst the

westward movment (#7)
Posted by: mark Location: new orleans
Posted On 12:12PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (SXNSQNQTYNQVQ*)

for the past few days we have had storms moving from east to west in the gom. Doesn't this show signs of a high pressure system. If it is wouldn't it keep Debby moving in a more westerly course than nw?

forecast (#8)
Posted by: jimmy
Posted On 12:18PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNWWNQUWNR*)

I know it is too far out, but it appears that TWC is anticipating a move up the west coast of FL in the Gulf. Also, What time do the new forecast models come out. I am curious to see if they remain on their more westward track. with this westward movement, it looks more likely that the track will enter the gulf.

Debby (#9)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 12:20PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Debby is in trouble. Her Low-Level circulation has run way ahead of the mid-level circulation (LLCC at 20N/71W) leaving all her convection behind between DR and PR. If she marches west towards cuba and encounters land she is dead. If she can turn more NW then she has a chance to re-intensify. This may take some work on her part though since her LLCC is nearly exposed at this point, and I'll bet at TD status or just above. See latest NRL vis closeup loop of Debby, it's very clear.

new eye formation possible (#10)
Posted by: Brian Location: Hollywood, Florida
Posted On 12:46PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QSWNURNRPPNQTX*)

it is possible that the mid level rotation may fall to the sea floor, creating a new eye, and low level circulation, thereby stacking herself in a new position. This may be occuring to the ENE of the original low level rotation.

Mid level rotation (#11)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 12:56PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Brian, you see what I mean though with the LLCC to the west of the convection. Yes the mid Level could go to the floor, and I think it has to happen if she is to survive. The old adage, a house divided cannot stand is appropriate. If it does reform to the North and East.. WE have a new ballgame. I don't think the NHC is expecting this or should I say was expecting this Cheers!

Mid Level Rotation (#12)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 01:05PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)

I haven't looked at it for a few hours, but you both are right. Things are getting interesting again.

Gulf (#13)
Posted by: Pat
Posted On 01:06PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RTNTNRURNQVP*)

Regardless, storms are notorious for hitting Florida on one side of the state, running through the state and then exiting through the other side. Florida is also notorious for having storms make return engagements after they have exited.

This appears to be a deja vu. A few people noted this much earlier when they mentioned Georges of last season.

New LLCC? (#14)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 01:09PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

The LLCC is crashing and burning on the NW DR coast right now, but Brian's point about a new Low-Level Circulation forming to the NE looks like it is taking place. The "old" one is opening up and heading SW into the NW Domincan Republic. That will mean if a new one is trying to form (and I think it is but it's hard to see through the convection), then it won't be competing with the old one. There are hints of rotation to the NE of the last position. IF this occurs, then SE florida could be the target again . Stay tuned!

Hmm (#15)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 01:13PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)

This may be a turning point for Debby. I'm working on a graphic illustrating the point about the LLCC now. Thanks a ton for the heads up. Making a site that I can't wait to check myself is extremely rewarding because of things like this. Thanks.

LLCC and Future Track (#16)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 01:19PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)

What would the impact on the current forecast track be if the LLCC reforms to the NE? Would it be more likely to catch the trough and turn north into Florida? Would Debby weaken dramatically and then restrengthen just as quickly? I can't remember another storm doing this so noticeably in recent memory. Any additional thoughts or insights would be most rewarding!

even after reforming...... (#17)
Posted by: Rick Location: Mobile, Al
Posted On 01:22PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNQRNVYNRQP*)

if it should form slightly north and east....would the general wwnw trend still apply? I remember Frederic did the same thing...stayed real weak through the land masses, but emerged still young and with great upside potential. It arrived in 79 in Mobile as a strong cat 3. I know we all know the potential of Debby....do you think she could weaken to just a wave? we shall see.

damn Debby just got Raped (#18)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 01:26PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPWNSVNRQRNX*)

loking at close up IR from Nasa websight the LLcc is almost on the other side of DR what happend in the few hours i was at school

Questionable reformation (#19)
Posted by: Brian Location: Hollywood, Florida
Posted On 01:29PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QSWNURNRPPNQTX*)

I am beginning to re-asses my earlier predictions of entry of a (3)or (4) entering between Islamorada (Marathon) and West Palm Beach. However, one can not fail to notide that the system is becoming extremely disorganized with each hour. Most important will be the next 6 hours, as this will dictate whether a new eye forms. If a new eye wall does not fall to sea level from the upper and mid level rotation, I believe we may be dealing with a strong depression or weak T.S. by morning. Such a system would most likely stay south of the keys or brush the keys and enter the Gulf, where I believe the formation of a (5) is certainly a reality, as the waters have not been churned up yet this year, leaving Debbie 88 degree waters at the gas pump. Yet, if Debbie re-forms a new eye, I will opt to stick with my earlier predictions. Right now, it seems no one, not even NHC has a clue what or why this is going on.

So let me get this strait (#20)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 01:31PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPWNSVNRQRNX*)

If debby forms a knew low level circulation xhe will be over open water, further north ,pushed east for more time for trough to arrive. right and also if she forms a knew LLCC those circulations will be stacked? meaning intesfication time

Graphic (#21)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 01:32PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)

I placed up the graphic showing what is going on. I'm really at a loss to describe what will happen now. I'm surprised the NHC hasn't done a special tropical storm update on this. Anyone with the background care to comment on this more?

Weak System (#22)
Posted by: Brian Location: Hollywood, Florida
Posted On 01:39PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QSWNURNRPPNQTX*)

If Debby falls apart and becomes a weak T.s. or Depression, the chances become even less likely for any trough, regardless of strength, to lift it north... as a disorganized storm tends to do it's own thing.

forecast models (#23)
Posted by: jimmy
Posted On 01:46PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNWWNQUWNR*)

could this be the reason for the huge differences in the forecast models. could some of the models have anticipated this and forecast based on the new center while the others were still fixed on the original?

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