Well, as we wait for the official word on the new far eastern Atlantic, just a few thoughts on its short term future. I believe the current shear currently being encountered, will lighten up ( as indicated by GFS 12-18 hr. 200mb from 18z ). That said, and given a continued upswing of development of its CDO, I anticipate it'll take all of tommorrow, along with quickscat data to verify but perhaps late tommorow to tomm. eve., and should likely have Karen in place. Given it's ( or "her" ) size, rather than entirely be controlled by its environment, this looks to be one of those beasties, that tend to change the environment around it ( thus being less susceptable to light shear once vertically stacked ). Also, now that we will have a true vortex to follow, I think we'll see much more conformity along the various models on motion, especially evident starting with 0600Z and the a.m. 12Z data. Finally, given this systems size, along with a more diffinative motion, I am now more apt to believe that the models will start trending more westward than previous runs. Speculation beyond that, will certainly take some more analysis than I care to take a stab at for the moment.