Sat Aug 20 2011 04:43 PM
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge

This system is interesting today, it's not that organized, but it does look amazing on satellite. The models, Euro is a bit east (Still along Florida), GFS is insane (right up the spine of Florida). Ensemble GFS is in the Gulf, CMC expects it to basically slow down and maybe meander (possibly in the Gulf, or worse over Florida). The spread is from the Central Gulf up to South Carolina, with the more reliable ones shooting the middle.

The fact the westerlies may not be strong enough to kick it out, means it may just sit for longer than expected, or move further westward than indicated. For such consistency throughout the models this week . The good news is at least for now, it may be on the weaker side.

12z Model rundown:

GFDL does not really grasp it at all, and shuffles it to the west and keeps it an open wave.
HRWF takes it over eastern Cuba and the run ends just before approaching South Florida. as a hurricane
EURO In caribbean, south of Haiti, through Eastern Cuba, up into South Floida and along the spine of Florida along the eastern side of the state. as a hurricane
GFS Operational: In Caribbean South of Haiti, Through Eastern Cuba, up into the Keys Friday, and straight up the center of Florida, leaving the dirty (NE)( side of the system in S. Fl, E CFl, and Jax. as a hurricane
Canadian: In Caribbean, Over Jamaica, over Western Cuba into the eastern Gulf. Run Ends before US Landfall.
NOGAPS: Caribbean, over haiti, eastern Cuba, into Eastern Gulf, and then near Tampa at end of the Run.
TVCN: Into Southeast Florida, and through the Spine of the State, out at Jacksonville.

The west/east bias is talked about in the HPC discussions, which implies more Florida risk, or a possible stall.

Bottom line, news is about the same, until a real system forms it's still bit of a guessing game. But odds do favor some sort of landfall in the US, how strong and exactly where are not known.
For the united states, those in the southeastern US, Florida, and North Central Gulf coasts need to watch this one. In the Caribbean, basically all the northern islands of the Caribbean, from Leewards, VI, PR, Hispaniola, Cuba, Jamaica. Bahamas not so much.

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