Mon Aug 22 2011 11:38 PM
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge

Can't stay up too late for the models, but will do what I can...

0z GFS running now:
hour 0: Initialization looks good.
hour 6 ,12: same as 18z
hour 18: slightly north of 18z
hour 24: same as 18z hr 30
hour 30: same as 18z hr 36
hour 36: slightly east of 18z hr 42 (Irene is moving slower than the earlier run)
hour 42: slightly northeast of 18z hr 48
hour 48: slightly northeast of 18z hr 54
hour 54: slightly northeast of 18z hr 60 (nearing Central Bahamas), 2nd trough seems strong enough to keep it away from Florida
hour 60: slightly northeast of 18z hr 66
hour 66: northeast of 18z hr 72 (Irene is East of Grand Bahama)
hour 72: northeast of 18z hr 78
hour 84: northeast of 18z hr 90
hour 90: northeast of 18z hr 96 (Well east of Savannah)
hour 96: northeast of 18z hr 102 (Well east of Charleston)
hour 102: northeast of 18z hr 108 (East of Myrtle Beach)
hour 108: northeast of 18z hr 114 (South of Wilmington, NC)
hour 114: northeast of 18z hr 120 (Approaching Morehead City, NC)
hour 120: northeast of 18z hr 126 (Landfall just east of Morehead City, NC)
hour 126: Over Nags Head, NC
hour 132: Offshore east of Virginia Beach
hour 138: Offshore east of Delaware
hour 144: Offshore east of New Jersey
hour 150: Landfall Long Island, NY
hour 156: Over Boston, MA
hour 162: Over Portland, ME
hour 168: Entering Canada near, Houlton, ME

Ending here. Florida direct hit chances dropping greatly from the GFS run, I don't expect the NHC's track to change much tomorrow.

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