(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 07 2011 09:42 AM
Re: 95L Forecast Lounge

Hard to believe this is not "Maria" already. Sure has "that look" to it. "If" and "when" we do see an upgrade is not known yet, however as I examine this mornings satellite, I cannot help but think that the system is gaining a little latitude. This could be also indicative of the lower and mid levels getting a bit more aligned and thus might be pulling up and out of the overall ITCZ monsoon trough out there. Would not surprise me to see a little faster motion than we've seen during the past day or two. I have to concur with those thoughts of others here, in that the overall pattern has thus far been quite indicative of recurvature as systems approach the Lesser Antilles. I would anticipate that this one will do the same, however models seems to bring it as a potential threat to the Leewards and Puerto Rico. Latest run of the Euro however, is actually more "westward", and brings this surprisingly close to Florida. Longer range GFS does seem to indicate some type of shift to the steering flow perhaps, but appears to be too "downrange" to impact this system.

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