(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2011 02:00 PM
Re: 96L - Our next Storm Threat?

After a bit of greater review of satellite this early afternoon, along with the 12 GFS upper level winds, it would appear that perhaps a small tight "naked swirl" in the vicinity of the appearant center of 96L is now moving northward. This motion and location presently places it under direct flow of very marginal north winds from a small anticyclone over the far N.W. Caribbean. Present motion continued ( and assuming that this feature is nothing other than a small vort eddy ), it would apper that the upper level conditions would be forecast to improve by later tonight and into Sunday.

All that said, even if 96L were to develop into a tropcal depression or storm, the forecast upper level winds for any system approaching the latitude W. Cuba and all points north, are only forecast to get stronger. That being the case, it would be highly unlikely for a storm to survive the anticipated 30-50 knot upper level winds. Significant development would then seem unlikely unless it were to start developing tomorrow, but then remain practically stationary for a period of time and this too would seem unlikely in the face of an approaching front mid week.

Seems that the only realistic risk ( though I think unlikely ), would be for 96L to start to organize tonight / tomorrow under somewhat improved upper air conditions, and then intensify while remaining practically stationary for a couple days, and then finally start a slow east motion towads Jamaica, ahead and in advance of next week's approching front.

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