doug
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Oct 26 2011 01:24 PM
Re: Rina Forecast Lounge

The scenario Weathernet posted above explains why Rina will not 'bottom out" (deepen) in the Florida straits.
Looking at the fixes in the last three previous advisories gives me the impression that a NW to NNW motion (more to the right) is setting in today. NNW would keep Rina off shore. Based on current forward speed projections it is not expected to interact with land until potentially Saturday after the turn occurs which puts Cuba into play.
However, I am beginning to think this whole thing may speed up a bit. I think this is the only way Florida gets into any serious danger; as, if Rina increases speed to 8-10 and pops out into the southern GOM as a cat 1 and then turns ene to e, the probability of Florida being seriously threatened increases.
There is too much uncertainty about the strength of the High pressure ridge now influencing Rina's path to make e totally discount Florida as a potential land fall threat.



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