As noted above, organization is much improved this morning with convection starting to consolidate around the center and banding beginning to develop on the west side of the center. All of the late-cycle models now bring the system either very close to or over east central Florida - probably as a modest tropical storm. Given the upswing in organization and the continued retrogression of the Gulf ridge, the model consensus certainly seems like a viable solution. Current motion is south, perhaps starting to lean toward south southwest at 5 or 6 knots, however, central pressure still remains high. Regarding intensification, the proximity to land is likely to be offset by the proximity to the Gulf Stream.
ED