Mon Jun 30 2014 06:37 AM
Re: Invest 91L Forecast Lounge

Model runs this morning match up with earlier, Euro keeps it weak until late tomorrow before gradually moving it more north-northeast(brushing in/along the outer Banks)

The GFS model moves it closer to Florida and inland, which would mean much more rainfall before heading more north-northeast (closer to the Euro).

General lounge thought this morning is that it stays east of Florida (but still close enough to bring some heavy bands of rainfall to East Central Florida, and parts of South Florida). Then starts heading toward the SC/NC outer banks, which is may clip, or possibly hit a bit inland.

Late Tomorrow is the most likely time for development, but it could be anytime between late today and Wednesday. It's currently just north of due east of Cape Canaveral and moving south or south southwest. This movement is causing havoc with general convection, and the center is still a bit tough to discern. If it can slow down enough and maintain itself near/over the Gulf Stream it has a window to intensify. Right now it's just some rain and a low pressure area amongst relatively high pressures.

For Florida it just means we may have some very heavy rains and possible flooding.

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