Sun Sep 06 2015 01:01 PM
Re: Grace Forecast Lounge

12Z GFS For grace takes in on almost the exact path Erika took (and about the same intensity wise). CMC and NavGem take it north. But are less reliable. Based on the current pattern, I'd suspect the further south (and west) track is again the most likely, which will keep it weak.

Nothing really new in the models today, otherwise. NHC track looks good. Grace may have a better chance to intensify before hitting the shear than Erika did, but still will likely meet a similar fate before reaching the Eastern Caribbean. Once again until this system clears the Caribbean, it will be too early to speculate beyond that. Odds favor it just falling apart, with shear & the TUTT ahead.

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