cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon Jun 06 2016 03:28 PM
Watching SW GOM - NW Caribbean Crossover TD ONE-E



Under normal circumstances, we would relegate East Pacific TCs to "Other Basins," with the exception of Hawaii. However, East Pac TD ONE has formed just southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with movement to the northeast.

Last night NHC development odds were running 20% over 5-Days, but it has organized rapidly throughout the day today, and in doing so, has become a Depression much closer to the Gulf of Mexico, while still caught up in a flow regime directing systems from southwest to northeast, extending from a fetch in the far eastern Pacific, across the Western Atlantic.

Should TD ONE-E be named prior to making landfall along extreme southwest Mexico, it's name will be Agatha. If it were to then cross over into the Atlantic basin sufficiently intact, it would retain that name. Conversely, if it were not to be named while in the Pacific, or would lose its identity while over land, but then regenerate anew while in the Gulf of Mexico and become a storm, it would receive a name from the Atlantic basin's list of names.

NHC will be starting advisories on ONE-E shortly.


Title edited to reflect updated steering currents that suggest a more ENE track is also possible.



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