(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri May 11 2018 04:58 PM
Re: 2018 General Model Watching

Ooops.... I just posted same in the general discussion before I saw your post Mike. Yep~ conditions aren't favorable for this scenario so the GFS is probably out to lunch. However, any low in the eastern Gulf (most often dropping down from the north on the tail of a late cold front) in late May or early June will be in a historically favored region for pre or early season development. I agree that we shouldn't be too concerned for significant tropical cyclogenesis. Whatever pans out will probably be beneficial by kick starting the peninsula's summer monsoon season a week or so early, helping relieve the significant rain deficit (%50) in many parts of south and central Florida.

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