Keith B
(Weather Watcher)
Sun May 13 2018 04:39 PM
Re: 2018 General Model Watching

MLB's AFD from 338 PM EDT Sat May 12 2018. Is conformation to the previous post:

Previous Mid-Range Forecast Discussion Modified...

Sun Night-Wed...Anomalous cutoff mid to upper level low over the
eastern GOMEX will be very slow to ease toward the NNE early next
week, as its center won`t reach the NE Gulf coast until Wed morning.
This feature will act upon the inverted trough which emerges from
the western FL peninsula Sun evening, generating weak surface low
development as it pushes away from the coast. This low will lift
slowly northward in tandem with its parent mid/upper level system.
The local air mass will finish its transition to featuring deep
layer SE to S flow with an anomalously high PWAT air mass of at
least 1.8 to 2.0" several days in a row. Similar to the late May
2009 cutoff over the state, this is expected to "jump start" the
Florida wet season about a couple weeks before the median date.
Several days in a row of well above normal rain chances (numerous to
widespread afternoon/evening showers with isolated to locally
scattered storms) QPF totals are forecast.

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