Thu May 17 2018 08:05 AM
Re: 2018 General Model Watching

This morning's 0Z GFS run shows the gyre start to spin up in the West Caribbean Wednesday, then gets into the Gulf just north of the west tip of Cuba Early Friday morning, then gets up to just west of Florida by Friday Afternoon and starts strengthening, sending massive rain toward Florida. It remains more or less in the same area until Sunday afternoon and makes it up to a borderline cat 1/2 hurricane during that time. (Saturday the 26th is when it hits hurricane) A sloppy cat one makes landfall near Panama City Beach very early on Monday May 28th.

The 0z Euro also shows a similar run, with the system as a Cat 1 Hurricane west of Tampa Saturday afternoon on May 26th. (Where the run ends)

The 6Z GFS is more or less the same as the 0z. The new highly experimental FV3 GFS model is a good deal west toward Texas, but is the outlier there. The 6Z of the same model seems to be trending much further east (its still running). Additionally the ensembles all have the system rather clustered in the Eastern Gulf next weekend.



Don't focus on the details, but just be aware both of the major models are giving us some sort of heads up for late next week 10 days out is a bit long for a forecast. Shear and dry air likely will be working against anything developing (it would keep it fairly disorganized), but moisture is a given either way.

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