Mon Jun 11 2018 02:52 PM
Mid June NW Carib - W Gulf Trofiness

SW Atlantic Visible & Lightning June 11, 2018 1845z
Image Credit: Weathernerds.Org

A tropical wave over Venezuela and a surface trof east of Nicaragua interacting with an upper-level trof that is sagging into the SW Atlantic is resulting in an area of disturbed weather today. Additionally, there is a possibility of a monsoonal gyre setting up in this region over the next several days, and NHC has now placed 20% odds of tropical cyclogenesis within 5 days - primarily favoring the NW Caribbean to SW Gulf of Mexico.

The operational GFS has been most bullish forecasting development in the Gulf this week, with the experimental Parallel GFS and individual members less so. However, there has been some genuine buy-in from those, including more recently additional support from several other global models.

This region is climatologically favorable for tropical cyclone formation this time of year, and the way things are setting up, 20% could be conservative.. even if development does not occur within 5 days, chances for tropical cyclone formation in this general area may persist for the remainder of the month.

Steering currents suggest that should a TC develop, it would likely be steered inland from roughly Tampico, Mx to Louisiana (and just to emphasize the point, there isn't much yet to hang a forecasting hat on to help pinpoint any eventual track).

Regardless of development, this pattern often results in blustery tropical downpours from eastern Mexico into Texas. A messy and/or slow moving system could exacerbate associated flooding risks.

The area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean has become a little better organized this Tuesday morning, June 12, and is now being tracked as an Invest (tag 91L). The title has been updated accordingly. -Ciel

Edit #2 Another trof that came up behind what was earlier tagged 91L (a trof + wave interacting with an upper-level low) has begun to merge a little with the prior features. It is unclear at this time as to whether it will be distinguished with an all-new Invest tag, but because this region in general has been a mess since the start, and overall is what we have been tracking, will merge these features into one thread. The title will be updated with subsequent Invest tags and TC numbers if warranted. - Ciel

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