cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Aug 31 2019 06:03 PM
Tropical Storm Fernand Lounge

A broad, but fairly well defined area of Low pressure has formed in the central/eastern Gulf of Mexico over the past 48 hours, and has been catching our eye for some potential of development. While the disturbance itself is not an ideal one for TCG, shear, moisture, water temps and more are favorable for development. As it is so close to land and likely to have some impacts either way, we are opening up a Lounge on it at this time.

This feature is not yet Invest tagged, but could be so later this weekend, and NHC gives it 30% odds of TC genesis within 5 days. Locations in the western Gulf of Mexico, from the Yucatan peninsula, west to the coasts of eastern Mexico and Texas, may want to pay it some attention. The title will be updated as warranted. Edit: 9/2: has been Invest tagged 93L and the title has been updated 9/3: 93L is now SEVEN. Now Fernand.

Note: More images forthcoming


The Topical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Product for the Gulf of Mexico region, developed by the Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch at CIRA, has hit its highest level of the year (dark blue line), suggesting, despite the low advertised probability, a much higher chance than climatology (dark black line) of TC genesis in the Gulf during the next 48 hours. The last and only time this experimental product exceeded 3% in the Gulf this year was around July 10/11, when Barry formed (denoted by the red markers on the graph).




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