cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 03 2019 02:26 AM
Re: Invest 93L (Gulf Low)

NHC odds now up to 80% within 48 hours. Recon has been tentatively tasked to investigate this system tomorrow.
Quote:

SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42
A. 03/2100Z
B. NOAA2 01BBA INVEST
C. 03/1830Z
D. 22.5N 95.0W
E. 03/2030Z TO 04/0100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000



Development has been a bit of a challenge, as not only has 93L had to deal with a surface circulation that has been situated well south of the lowish-to-mid level circulation, but also Dorian kept siphoning away a lot of its ability to close off at the surface closer to the aforementioned mid-level circulation (and by far where all the convective action is).

93L appears to be tapping into improved conditions tonight, and we could see TC genesis as soon as some time today. Winds are currently starting to nudge up to near tropical-storm force already, and if indeed it closes off, a named storm could be knocking on the coast of eastern Mexico not all that far from Brownsville, Tx, if current trends and model guidance verifies.



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