Genesis
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 12 2019 02:38 PM
Re: 95L Lounge

Quote:

What is the chance of this storm hitting Mobile or New Orleans and how strong could it get?



IMHO the upper air pattern (look at WV) doesn't support much of a chance of it coming that way; it has moved more-or-less NW (it WAS moving WNW for a while) which argues strongly that it will miss the slot that will allow it into the Gulf. (See here -- look at the UV loop https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/) -- that feature is moving slowly westward, and that could admit this into the eastern Gulf as it backs away, but I wouldn't put much faith in anything coming much further west than the Big Bend area, and the dry air wrapped around it is also likely to inhibit strengthening of anything that comes westward as well.



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