(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 23 2019 09:49 AM
Re: Invest 99L Lounge


Karen's going to struggle over the next few days with the shear, I know about the hard left many of the models show, but a lot depends on how strong it gets.

6z GFS shows it staying weak the entire run (Open wave toward the end) but does move the energy over S. Florida. 12z also weakens it to almost nothing.

0z Euro is much stronger than the GFS but moves it SW over Cuba. This run is a little more concerning if it shifts back to the right more in the long range.

0z UKMET just stalls it out at the end of the run and hints west.

0z CMC ends the run NE of the northern Bahamas.

12z Icon just stalls it for a very long time.

I believe the GFS is more likely given Karen's current disorganization and possible downgrade to depression today due to ongoing strong shear preventing any deep convection from co-locating with the center of circulation. Still, if the circulation persists it will eventually find much more favorable conditions north of Puerto Rico. If shear does not kill a weakened Karen, the NHC day 4/5 forecast for a strengthening system over the SW Atlantic may pan out.

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