Wed Sep 25 2019 05:48 AM
Re: Karen Lounge

Now that Karen is north of the Caribbean the next key phase to watch out for is the forecasted move back to the west after a loop. How long the system stalls and how fast it begins moving west are part of this, as is how strong the system is or is not at the time. The GFS and Euro are showing it weak, while a lot of the other intensity models are stronger, looks like the NHC forecast splits the difference. The NHC's been following the TVCN a lot lately, which has trended faster/further west on each run in the past day or so. Still doubtful it'll maintain it all the way toward the mainland, but it does mean the Bahamas will want to watch it closely once the loop and move west starts to happen.

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