Sat Jun 01 2019 12:07 AM
Invest 91L Lounge

A broad area of low pressure is percolating in a seasonably favorable region for tropical cyclone genesis, and this feature has now been tagged as Invest 91L, our second Invest of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

NHC saw it appropriate to issue a preseason TWO on this disturbance earlier today:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
220 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure accompanied by cloudiness and showers
centered over the Yucatan Peninsula is forecast to move westward
over the southern Bay of Campeche during the weekend. Some gradual
development of this system is possible through early next week as
long as it remains over water. Regardless of development, the
disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of
southern Mexico during the next few days. Regular issuance of the
Tropical Weather Outlook will begin at 2 AM EDT tonight with the
beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Avila/Zelinsky

Models have been warming up to cooking this one up a bit, and, provided it can remain mostly or all over water, there is also a real possibility of 91L becoming a TC or TC-like system that dumps heavy rains over Mexico and/or recruves into one or more Gulf Coast states sometime next week. As such, we are now opening up a "Forecast Lounge" on this disturbance.

The title will be updated if and as warranted.

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