cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Jun 01 2019 04:05 PM
Re: Invest 91L Lounge

NHC increased development odds to 60% with the 2PM TWO and this could be conservative. In fact, it is now debatable whether or not 91L is already classifiable, and it would not surprise to see Advisories begin sometime late tonight - at least on a "PTC," or "Potential Tropical Cyclone" basis, assuming it hasn't already been upgraded. This necessitates TC-centric model runs (HWRF, HMON, etc.), and we should begin to see those start coming in shortly.

Considering that 91L looks to be getting its act together a bit ahead of schedule and a bit more robustly, additional attention should be paid to the more aggressive model runs we have seen thus far. Of these, the often accurate ECMWF does crank 91L up into what would likely be Barry, and potentially a high-end Tropical Storm Barry at that. Movement per this model's most recent run would be gradually and unevenly into Tampico, MX with an eventual recurvature along or just offshore of the Texas coastline before ultimately making a final landfall (of possibly several along its route - Mx/Tx/La) on Louisiana around Friday of next week.



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