cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Jun 02 2019 01:45 AM
Re: Invest 91L Lounge

Much of the low to mid level circulation associated with 91L already appears to be over land, and this may be why the intensification trend seen during the day Saturday seems to have halted, with convection even waning into the overnight hours. With a general west to west-northwest trajectory in the near term, it is starting to look increasingly possible but not yet probable that 91L just doesn't pull itself together before it is too late, and such an outcome is now being represented by the bulk of the primary models.

Recon has been tasked to investigate 91L later today, Sunday, if necessary. If by sunrise 91L doesn't look any better than at present, especially if even more of its circulation has entered land, today's flight could be canceled.

Recently a renewed burst of convection has fired up in what could generously be called the northeast quadrant, with what looks like some effort to wrap and build. Time is of the essence.

Regardless of development, 91L, whatever becomes of it, will likely interact with a mid-latitude low now approaching from its northwest to produce copious, multi-day rains over eastern Mexico and possibly the eastern third of Texas as well. The atmosphere over south Texas is already seeing PWAT values of about 1.5" and modeling suggests a fetch of 2.0" or even better overspreading the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Combined with the aforementioned mid-lat system, scattered to widespread showers and storms, some possibly locally heavy and/or severe, would be a conceivable outcome.



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