Thu Sep 17 2020 03:42 PM
Re: 90L Lounge

90L has a fairly well defined circulation as well as relatively well organized convection this afternoon, and we may see it upgraded shortly.

Model support has also been warming up, with the trends shown from the 0z to 06z to 12z runs increasingly confident in its formation (which now appears all but certain), as well as trending up in intensity.

Of special concern, steering currents may be very light, variable and maybe even loopy in the Gulf, allowing then Tropical Storm or Hurricane Wilfred (or Alpha, depending) to meander or even make circles over very warm SSTs, while never staying in any one place so long as to meaningfully cool SSTs down, and perhaps have more than one landfall. If verified, this could become a super sticky significant wind + surge + inland flood system.

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