IsoFlame
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 12 2020 04:09 PM
Re: 91L Caribbean Area to Watch

GFS 12z has a strong hurricane spinning up in the Caribbean, crossing Cuba, then impacting Florida peninsula in 2 weeks: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020101212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_60.png
Each of the last 3 model runs has been further west and stronger. 12z was a bit slower bringing the system out of the Caribbean, consequently more time over warm/deep seawater allows pressure to bottom out around 941mb prior to Cuban landfall. While 2 weeks out is a hard sale for any model to pin on, the 12z GFS and the relative run to run consistency



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