Sat May 31 2014 11:35 PM
Re: Outlook for 2014

The best part about this, is after an epic bust like most everyone made in 2013, it gives the opportunity to bust all over again ;-)

The usual disclaimers:
1. I believe seasonal hurricane forecasting is only marginally more accurate than climatology, and does little to nothing to tell us about exactly where these tropical cyclones will go.
2. "It only takes one."

I am leaning strongly to the development of an El NiƱo this year - and possibly a significant event. Coupled with a continuation of other inhibiting trends seen in the Atlantic basin during the latter half of 2013, it seems more likely than not to me that 2014 will end up having a generally below average season, with the number of Storms, Hurricanes & Majors all limited in the Atlantic, but with a likelihood of more record-setting development in the central and eastern Pacific*

Atlantic Basin: 9 Names, 3 Hurricanes, 1 Major

*On May 25th of this year, Hurricane Amanda intensified into the most powerful May hurricane on record in the East Pac, as well as having become the 2cd earliest East Pacific Major.

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