Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Wed Jun 01 2016 12:01 AM
Re: Outlook for 2016

A total of 18 site members (one more than last year) participated in the 2016 version of our annual exercise to guess the level of activity in the Atlantic Basin in terms of Total Number of Named Storms / Number of Hurricanes / and the number of those hurricanes that reach Major Hurricane status (Cat III or stronger). The guesstimates ranged from a low of 12 named storms (myself and three others) to 17 named storms by cieldumort - and that is probably the smallest range that we have ever had. It means that all of us expect an above average number of named tropical cyclones in the Atlantic this year - and we have already had Hurricane Alex and Tropical Storm Bonnie. The average of all inputs was 14 / 8 / 3. The forecasted number of hurricanes ranged from 6 to 11 and the number of major hurricanes was 2 to 5.

From the pros:
On 4/14, CSU: 13/6/2 with an ACE of 93
On 4/15, TSR: 12/6/2, however, on 5/27 TSR revised their forecast to 17/9/4 - a rather significant change and they based this increase primarily on the NAO trending negative. They increased their ACE from 80 to 130.
On 5/27, NOAA: 13/6/3 (averages of their range of numbers)

This thread is now closed, however, at the end of the season we'll check back with the actual season totals and see if we were in the ballpark. Thanks to all of you that participated!

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