cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon Jul 03 2017 12:17 PM
Area of Interest - TD FOUR

At 03/15Z, Invest 94L was located about about 650 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, near 8.8N 32.5W, and has essentially remained stationary for over twelve hours. Minimum pressure was estimated at 1011mb, and maximum sustained winds were about 30 MPH.

94L has a well defined surface circulation, with slowly organizing convective showers and a few thunderstorms. The incipient cyclone is presently traversing a moderate shear environment, but within a cocoon of greater mid-tropospheric relative humidity, and traveling across above average SSTs. An extensive tongue of modest dry, dusty air lies just to its north to northwest, and extends from northern Africa to the eastern Caribbean. This feature is showing signs of starting to mix out, and at this time arguably remains at an optimal distance and location for intensification (Shu, S., and L. Wu 2009).

Models in the aggregate slowly take 94L into the western Atlantic, with a few runs ramping it up into a formidable hurricane. However, this early on and with little in the way of data to go by, anything remains very speculative and suited for the Lounge .

As of the 11PM AST July 5, 2017 update, 94L has become TD FOUR and the title has been updated accordingly.



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