(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon May 28 2018 01:21 PM
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers

Couldn't edit my previous prediction issued in early May, so here is the minor tweak (upward) ahead of the June 1st deadline:

14 storms
6 hurricanes
3 majors

I'll add the following gut conjecture... the 2018 season will be busy early with several tropical storms and a weak hurricane (Alberto in late May followed by Beryl in late June then Chris in sometime in July. I believe August and early September will be unusually quiet. Activity cranks up the second half of September, early and late October, and first week of November with 5 hurricanes, 3 achieving major status. My gut suggests males dominate the Atlantic Basin in 2018, with Isaac and Kirk names to remember.

Given the set-up in May of persistent troughiness over the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico combined with a weak Bermuda high funneling copious tropical moisture northward out of the western Caribbean Sea, the entire length of Florida from the Keys and southern tip to Pensacola in the Panhandle could be in play.

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