Thu May 31 2018 09:31 PM
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers

Several variables leave me viewing 2018 in the Atlantic as rather evenly weighted to around normal, or close to either side thereof, for total numbers of names, hurricanes and majors, but importantly, with an above-average to high landfall risk from the Gulf coast states to the mid-Atlantic.

Given that we have already seen one (preseason) named storm, and indications are that we may very well see at least one in June (early season), I'll go with my system's output of 12 Names, 6 HURs and 2 Majors - offering a most likely range of 9-13 Names, 4-7 Hurricanes and 1-3 Majors. Above average to high risk of U.S. landfalls (which could make season totals moot if any significant cyclones make landfalls, regardless of season formation totals - "It only takes one.")

Final bid for 2018: 12 Names, 6 Hurricanes, 2 Majors

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