IsoFlame
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Jun 22 2018 01:52 PM
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers

Indeed. very thankful that Dr. Klotzbach is diligently carrying the CSU tropical meteorology research "torch".

Given the increased cooling of the tropical Atlantic in June, should've stuck my original call for 13/6/2. However, my "gut" feeling is there could be a flurry of activity later in the season very close to home that will boost the tally a bit. The western Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and even the Florida Straits could originate systems if atmospheric parameters line up favorably with peak SST's achieved a bit later than climatology (early Sept) suggests. I also feel the Sargasso Sea area in the Atlantic basin could be a "hot bed" to departing system intensification, possibly supporting the season's expectation of 2 -3 major hurricanes. Thankfully for areas in the Caribbean and Florida Keys that were hammered by majors last year, Cape Verde origin systems will not have oceanic thermal support unless there is a radical reversal of early summer's significantly cooler SST's.



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