GeorgeN
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Sep 05 2019 12:14 PM
Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area

Unbiased and accurate storm reporting is a topic that I often discuss with family and friends. With so much weather info available, it seems like everyone with a computer wants to "help with the forecast". When you have so many people trying to get attention, you end up with statements like this:
"Dorian is about to hit Florida hard. The most urgently worded hurricane update
The storm is projected, at this time, to make landfall as a Category 4 or higher hurricane somewhere between Melbourne and Ft. Lauderdale."
https://community.windy.com/topic/9449/d...ricane-update/2

Granted this statement may have been posted with good intentions, but I think it inspired more panic than preparation. At the time, the storm was high over the Dominican Republic and hundreds of miles from Florida. Any landfall in Florida was pure extrapolation at this point, but it did not stop the author from making a statement that would surely gain public attention.

I think it's time to bring some honesty into the NHC forecast maps. Yes, the models were accurate, but only within a max of 2-3 days. The longer extrapolations seem to always point directly to Florida. The NHC makes it clear that this trajectory is just an extrapolation from models which are inaccurate past a certain point. But, people tend to jump at these projections and then make their own conclusions, and then make public statements.



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